tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/polls-1436/articlesPolls – La Conversation2023-12-19T19:02:30Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194962023-12-19T19:02:30Z2023-12-19T19:02:30ZBiden’s burden: four percentage points, a struggling economy and a fragile democracy<p>In the United States, one of the men vying for the presidency faces <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/">91 criminal charges</a> in four concurrent criminal cases. He uses <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/donald-trump-fascist-vermin/">openly fascist language</a>, and has mused about “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/03/politics/trump-constitution-truth-social/index.html">terminating</a>” the Constitution. Just last week, he said that should he win the election, he would be a “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/trump-says-hell-be-a-dictator-on-day-one/676247/">dictator</a>” for day one of his presidency (but not after that). </p>
<p>He currently sits four percentage points ahead of the incumbent president.</p>
<p>Last week, a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-takes-2024-lead-as-biden-approval-hits-new-low-wsj-poll-finds-fb4fca0c">Wall Street Journal</a> poll of 1,500 US voters found that, in a hypothetical head-to-head, Democratic President Joe Biden would attract 43% of votes compared to presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s 47%. When five independent candidates were added to the mix, Biden’s projected vote dropped to 31%, compared to Trump’s 37%. The same poll measured Biden’s current approval rating at 37%.</p>
<p>In a country that prides itself on being the “<a href="https://time.com/5939510/joe-biden-india-democracy/">oldest democracy in the world</a>,” how is it possible that an explicit anti-democrat is outpolling the democratically elected president? Why is Biden so unpopular?</p>
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<p>There are some obvious, immediate answers to this question. While not many of the truisms of the 1990s retain their relevance, Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign dictum that “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/back-to-the-future-its-the-economy-stupid/">it’s the economy, stupid</a>” retains a lot of explanatory power.</p>
<p>While the big indicators of economic recovery and success are tracking reasonably well in the United States – gross domestic product is up, inflation is down, and unemployment is at its lowest level since 1969 – these numbers just don’t line up with Americans’ material experiences. </p>
<p>That’s why the Biden administration is scrambling to sell the positive message of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/bidenomics-why-its-more-likely-to-win-the-2024-election-than-many-people-think-213281">Bidenomics</a>”. They are struggling to sell that message at least in part because while those policies, such as Biden’s signature <a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Inflation Reduction Act</a>, are having an impact, they haven’t been enough to reduce rampant inequality. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bidenomics-why-its-more-likely-to-win-the-2024-election-than-many-people-think-213281">Bidenomics: why it's more likely to win the 2024 election than many people think</a>
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<p>These perceptions – real and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/82/1/135/4868126?redirectedFrom=fulltext&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&login=false">imagined</a> – of an economy that doesn’t work for the majority of Americans are colliding with other crises in the United States that, sometimes fairly and sometimes not, are being laid at the feet of the president.</p>
<p>There is the ongoing <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/175311/america-polarized-traumatized-trump-violence">trauma</a> of a pandemic that killed over one million Americans; of gun violence; and of deaths of despair. And for young people especially, there is the sense of betrayal that a president who <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/09/biden-reelection-transition-president/675395/">promised to be a generational bridge</a> has not lifted young people up, has not done enough on climate, and proudly <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/12/05/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-campaign-reception-weston-ma-2/">proclaims his Zionism</a> in the face of unspeakable horror being perpetrated in Gaza by the right-wing Israeli government. </p>
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<p>In what we might unsatisfactorily call a “normal” election cycle, this <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/498398e7-11b1-494b-9cd3-6d669dc3de33">polycrisis</a> would be enough of an explanation for recent polling. </p>
<p>But the possibility that an openly authoritarian candidate might win the highest office in the world’s most powerful democracy, even if it is an imperfect one, is not “normal”. Given the stakes of this election, there has to be more at play. </p>
<p>Polling consistently shows that Americans are deeply worried about the state of their democracy. At the end of 2022, for example, an <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/15/1143191937/eight-out-of-10-americans-believe-the-u-s-faces-a-threat-to-democracy">NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll</a> found that a vast majority of Americans – eight in ten people – see American democracy as under threat.</p>
<p>Experts agree that they are right to understand the 2024 presidential election in these terms. American democracy has always been fragile, and it is now at as dangerous a point as at any other moment in its history.</p>
<p>It is these long threads of American history that connect to the present. For many, if not all, of his supporters, Trump’s seemingly untouchable popularity comes because, not in spite of, his particularly American brand of anti-democratic white supremacy. </p>
<p>Understanding Trump’s popularity with these voters means confronting what Fintan O’Toole <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/america-civil-war-prophecies/620850/">has described</a> as the “unresolved contradictions of American history”. By that he means the legacy of slavery, the Civil War, the undoing of Reconstruction, and the unfinished business of the Civil Rights movement. </p>
<p>Trump is popular precisely because he sits at the intersection of American history – the mutually reinforcing trends of white supremacy, exceptionalism and conspiracy.</p>
<p>At his strongest, Biden <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-joe-biden-be-the-most-consequential-american-president-of-our-times-200348">understands</a> and acknowledges this. Biden speaks clearly and consistently of the threat Trumpism poses to American democracy. Twice in recent history, in the 2020 presidential elections and the 2022 midterms, voters have agreed with him.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-say-trump-has-a-strong-chance-of-winning-again-in-2024-so-how-might-his-second-term-reshape-the-us-government-217664">Polls say Trump has a strong chance of winning again in 2024. So how might his second term reshape the US government?</a>
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<p>When it comes down to it, those voters may well agree with him once more. We can say with reasonable certainty that Biden’s “disaffected Democrats” won’t turn out for Trump. And we know from experience that polls are incomplete snapshots of intention and sometimes fail to capture other motivating factors. </p>
<p>The real risk is that this time around, Biden’s message of threat mitigation will not be enough. As the United States’ immediate <a href="https://aeon.co/essays/the-case-for-polycrisis-as-a-keyword-of-our-interconnected-times">polycrisis</a> collides with its old one, Biden’s tendency to fall back into <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/10/20/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-unites-states-response-to-hamass-terrorist-attacks-against-israel-and-russias-ongoing-brutal-war-against-ukraine/">old tropes</a> of American exceptionalism has started to ring hollow, and only reinforces existing perceptions that, at 81, he is too old to run again.</p>
<p>As he seeks out a second term, the president’s apparent inability to articulate <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-923X.13254">a coherent alternate vision for the future</a> of his country may well be critical. </p>
<p>While those four percentage points might not seem like much, and will likely keep moving until November, they’re representative of a very big problem for the future of American democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Shortis is Senior Researcher in International and Security Affairs at The Australia Institute.</span></em></p>His key opponent is an incendiary character in a world of legal trouble. So why isn’t Joe Biden in a better position to win the 2024 presidential race than he seems to be?Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168192023-11-05T23:32:49Z2023-11-05T23:32:49ZAlbanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-leading-on-primary-vote-as-dutton-closes-in-on-albanese/news-story/9e2c3b2e95123cbcfc8ad1604239b39a">Newspoll</a>, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice referendum. This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Newspoll since the 2022 federal election. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up two percentage points), 35% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all others (down one).</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 52% dissatisfied (up six points) and 42% satisfied (down four), for a net approval of -10, down ten points. This is easily his lowest net approval in Newspoll since becoming PM. This graph shows the continued decline in Albanese’s Newspoll ratings since late 2022.</p>
<p>Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved five points to -13. Albanese’s lead over Dutton for preferred prime minister narrowed to 46–36%, from 51–31% previously. This is also Albanese’s smallest lead since the election. Newspoll and Redbridge figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/05/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>The slumping polls show how damaging the heavy defeat of the Voice referendum and continuing cost of living pressures have been to Albanese and Labor.</p>
<h2>Redbridge national poll: Labor’s lead holds steady</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nsw/voice-focus-stirs-blue-collar-revolt-against-anthony-albanese-and-the-labor-party/news-story/2c59d527389c7fbdf0283d2ecb456ff7">Herald Sun</a>
reported Sunday that a Redbridge national poll, conducted October 25 to November 2 from a sample of 1,205 people, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5% lead over the Coalition, a 0.6-point gain for the Coalition since <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Federal-Poll-Sept-2023.pdf">early September</a>. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 35% Coalition (down one point), 34% Labor (down three), 14% Greens (up one) and 17% for all others (up three).</p>
<p>The Herald Sun emphasised large primary vote swings against Labor among those with lower educational attainment, but these would be based on small subsamples of the overall sample, and are thus not reliable.</p>
<h2>Voice referendum final results</h2>
<p>All of the votes in the October 14 referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament have now been counted and the final results are in.</p>
<p>Nationally, “no” won the <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/ReferendumNationalResults-29581.htm">referendum</a> by a 60.06–39.94% margin, or 20.1 points. “No” also won every state, by 8.3 percentage points in Victoria, 17.9 points in New South Wales and Tasmania, 26.5 points in Western Australia, 28.3 points in South Australia and 36.4 points in Queensland.</p>
<p>For the referendum to be successful, it needed a majority in at least four of the six states, as well as a national majority. The territories are counted towards the national total, but not the majority of states. The “no” vote won in the Northern Territory by 20.6 percentage points, while “yes” came out ahead in the ACT by 22.6 points.</p>
<p>Nationally, 34 of the 151 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/referendum/2023/results?filter=all&sort=yes&state=all&party=all">House of Representatives electorates</a>
voted “yes” while 117 voted “no”. In NSW, 11 of 47 seats voted “yes”, in Victoria 13 of 39, in Queensland three of 30, in WA two of 15, in SA none of ten, in Tasmania two of five, in the ACT all three seats and in the NT none of two.</p>
<p>All seven seats won by “teal” independents and all four won by Greens at the 2022 election voted “yes”, as did 21 of the 78 Labor-held seats. Bradfield in NSW was the only one of 57 Coalition-held seats to vote “yes”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-australians-supported-voice-referendum-by-large-margins-labor-retains-large-newspoll-lead-215663">Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead</a>
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<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/some-graphs-on-the-voice-referendum-result/">has a chart showing</a> the “yes” and “no” split by vote type. Pre-poll ordinary votes were far worse for “yes” than polling day ordinary votes, and postals were even worse. But both polling day absent votes and declaration pre-poll votes were better for the “yes” side than polling day ordinary votes.</p>
<p>Turnout for the referendum was 89.9%, higher than the 89.8% turnout recorded for the House at the last federal election.</p>
<h2>How did the polls do?</h2>
<p>The graph below shows the “yes” lead or deficit in all polls conducted this year, culminating with the final result (“no” by 20.1 points). Newspoll’s final poll was the most accurate, showing a 20-point “no” lead. YouGov’s final poll had an 18-point “no” lead, while Focaldata’s poll suggested a 22-point defeat.</p>
<p>Other pollsters did not perform as well, such as Morgan, whose final poll showed “no” with just a seven-point lead, and Essential, which had given “no” a six-point lead. Essential has <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/methodology">altered its methodology</a> since the referendum to weight results by education level.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/indigenous/voice-referendum-newspoll-late-swing-for-yes-campaign-but-nation-poised-to-say-no/news-story/7096dcf9234291d496ba016ccaa5142c">Newspoll’s state breakdowns</a> were also good at the state level, with the exception of WA. “No” led in the final Newspoll by 13 points in NSW, eight points in Victoria, 35 points in Queensland, 27 points in SA, 37 points in WA and 17 points in Tasmania.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-falls-in-newspoll-to-new-low-but-is-up-in-resolve-though-still-well-behind-215156">Resolve poll</a> had “yes” ahead in Tasmania by 56–44% in its final poll, which was a large error given “no” won in the state by almost 18 points.</p>
<p>Newspoll was administered by YouGov until mid-July, but is now managed by Pyxis. Both the new Newspoll and YouGov performed well.</p>
<h2>Victorian Mulgrave byelection</h2>
<p>A byelection will occur on November 18 in the Victorian state seat of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023">Mulgrave</a>, previously held by former Labor Premier Daniel Andrews. At the 2022 state election, Andrews defeated independent Ian Cook after preferences by 60.8–39.2%, and the Liberals by 60.2–39.8%. </p>
<p>Cook is running for the seat again. He will face nine other candidates, including Labor’s Eden Foster and the Liberals’ Courtney Mann.</p>
<h2>Argentine legislative results</h2>
<p>I covered the Argentine legislative results from the October 22 election in my article for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/03/new-zealand-election-results-finalisation-12pm-aedt-today/">The Poll Bludger</a>. The combined right-wing parties won control of the lower house in Argentina, but failed in the Senate owing to a system similar to first-past-the-post.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The slumping polls show how damaging the heavy defeat of the Voice referendum and continuing cost of living pressures have been to the prime minister and Labor.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139332023-10-25T12:33:19Z2023-10-25T12:33:19ZPolls have value, even when they are wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553736/original/file-20231013-17-isuwb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5946%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Leadership and likability questions help pollsters predict who might win.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/democratic-blue-donkey-and-republican-red-elephant-royalty-free-image/1216006088?phrase=U.S.+election&adppopup=true">Osaka Wayne Studios/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>An <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/troubles-biden-age-reelection-campaign-poll/story?id=103436611">ABC News/Washington Post poll</a> in September 2023 generated outrage among Democrats. The headline on the story, “Trump edges out Biden 51-42 in head-to-head matchup: POLL,” appeared designed to attract clicks rather than accurately portray where the race was on that day – or where it was headed. </p>
<p>Below the headline, the news organizations’ analysis of the poll results was far more nuanced, capturing the challenges confronting President Joe Biden in his bid for reelection and acknowledging the poll results may be an outlier. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553761/original/file-20231013-27-oeudh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A split screen shows the images of two white men making a point." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553761/original/file-20231013-27-oeudh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553761/original/file-20231013-27-oeudh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553761/original/file-20231013-27-oeudh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553761/original/file-20231013-27-oeudh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553761/original/file-20231013-27-oeudh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553761/original/file-20231013-27-oeudh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553761/original/file-20231013-27-oeudh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Donald Trump and Joe Biden at the last presidential debate in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-combination-of-pictures-created-on-october-22-2020-news-photo/1229228819?adppopup=true">Brendan Smialowski/Jim Watson/ AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Pollsters, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=2892L3EAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">like me</a>, are always interested in horse race numbers, which provide a simple comparison of where the candidates stand if voters had to cast their ballots on the day the poll was conducted. But we are much more interested in what is happening beneath the surface. </p>
<p>Let me explain how a pollster reads a poll.</p>
<h2>Delving deeper</h2>
<p>Poll results are divided into a number of elements.</p>
<p>Cross tabulations provide comparisons across subgroups. They tell us how well candidates are faring with key voting constituencies, such as suburban women, racial and ethnic minorities, and the white working class. </p>
<p>Biden, for example, is faring poorly among nonwhite working-class voters, relative to previous Democratic presidential candidates and even his 2020 presidential campaign, <a href="https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-democrats-nonwhite-working-class-1dc">raising concerns about his prospects for reelection</a>. </p>
<p>Pollsters also like poll questions that gauge voters’ perceptions of a candidate’s leadership qualities, their likability and voters’ most pressing issues. These concerns help to explain who appears to be winning – or losing – the election. Here I have in mind questions like: Is the candidate perceived as a strong leader? Do voters believe the candidate cares about people like them? And even more simply, do voters like the candidate? Is this someone they would want to have a beer with?</p>
<p>Fair or not, the polls tell us that <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-age-poll-trump-2024-620e0a5cfa0039a6448f607c17c7f23e">Biden’s age is a very real concern</a>. Should he win reelection, Biden would be 82 at the time of his inauguration, surpassing a record he already holds as the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/19/joe-biden-oldest-us-presidents-in-office">oldest elected president</a>. Should Donald Trump win election in 2024, he would be 78, edging Biden out by a few months as America’s oldest president at the time of his election. </p>
<p>Pollsters also pay attention to context, including indicators like unemployment and inflation rates that tend to drive an election regardless of which candidate appears to be advantaged or disadvantaged by the latest round of breaking news. </p>
<p>Polls reveal Biden’s campaign <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">continues to struggle with low approval ratings</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-economy-poll-trump-2024-c3fc17ffe3e1a9c865e2f9627ef4bea4">an inability to translate relatively strong economic indicators</a> into rosier public evaluations of the economy.</p>
<h2>Primaries are challenging</h2>
<p>Even the best polls provide only a snapshot in time and are limited in their ability to predict the future. One lesson of polling: It is harder to poll in primary elections without partisan affiliation to guide voter choice. In other words, in a primary election the voter chooses from candidates who are in the same party. Recent history is replete with examples of candidates whose fortunes changed. <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/103351/clinton-maintains-large-lead-over-obama-nationally.aspx">Hillary Clinton</a>, for example, was leading in September 2007, one year prior to the presidential election. She eventually <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4978839&page=1">lost the nomination</a>. </p>
<p>Shifts in the political context, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/israeli-palestinian-conflict-140823">recent events in the Middle East</a>, can alter the course of a campaign. In 2008, for example, Barack Obama and John McCain were in a dead heat prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2013/09/19/how-the-lehman-bros-crisis-impacted-the-2008-presidential-race/">financial meltdown leading to the Great Recession</a>. </p>
<h2>The issues that matter</h2>
<p>Polls may do poorly at picking a winner, but they do better in helping pollsters, journalists and voters understand what issues matter and why they matter.</p>
<p>In 2016, by asking questions gauging immigration attitudes, the polls explained how nativist appeals separated Trump from the rest of the pack of Republicans seeking the GOP nomination and <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2016-09/Its_Nativism_Explaining_the_Drivers_of_Trumps_Popular_Support.pdf">mobilized the party’s Republican base in the general election</a>. </p>
<p>In the 2022 midterm elections, polling shed light on how the Supreme Court decision overturning the Roe v. Wade precedent that protected abortion rights fundamentally altered the political landscape and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/19/dobbs-2022-election-abortion-00074426">mobilized Democratic voters</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553763/original/file-20231013-29-94zzgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="With a red, white and blue banner above them, a diverse group of Americans stand in line to vote." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553763/original/file-20231013-29-94zzgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553763/original/file-20231013-29-94zzgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553763/original/file-20231013-29-94zzgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553763/original/file-20231013-29-94zzgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553763/original/file-20231013-29-94zzgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553763/original/file-20231013-29-94zzgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553763/original/file-20231013-29-94zzgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Voters in a handful of states will likely decide the 2024 presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/voters-waiting-to-vote-in-polling-place-royalty-free-image/138711510?phrase=People+standing+in+line+at+U.S.+polls&adppopup=true">Hill Street Studios/Digital Vision via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Polling and context</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/s-s-driving-americas-increasing-political-polarization-rcna89559">Political polarization</a> is perhaps the defining characteristic of the country today. It is magnified by partisan news media, which often provide disparate portrayals of the state of the nation. </p>
<p>In a polarized political environment, the floor on candidate support in a horse race poll is high and the ceiling is low. What does this mean? Neither candidate is likely to see their support drop much below 40% or rise above 50%. </p>
<p>This is especially true for Donald Trump. Even with <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/">four criminal indictments</a> against him, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/">his favorability remains</a> at 40.3% as of October 2023, according to aggregate polls. His unfavorable numbers have similarly remained largely <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/">unchanged at 54.8%</a>.</p>
<p>Biden lacks Trump’s seeming impenetrable connection to his base, so his floor is lower – and so is his ceiling.</p>
<p>Many of Biden’s potential supporters explicitly say they would like to see <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/poll-biden-2024-second-term-democrat-voters-cnn">someone – anyone – else as the Democratic nominee</a>. But in the absence of someone else, would they vote for Donald Trump, stay home or vote for a third-party candidate? The polls reveal that, as unhappy as these voters may be today, as November approaches, they are likely to hold their noses and cast a ballot to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/04/biden-2024-reelection-bid-chances-popularity/673844/">reelect Biden</a>. </p>
<h2>The limits of national polls</h2>
<p>Finally, while much of the polling data is national in scope, presidential elections are better described as <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2111439">a series of independent state elections</a> – and national polls can reveal little about state campaigns. In 2016, <a href="https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-2016-Election-Polling-Report.pdf">national polls were generally accurate predictors of the two-party vote</a>, but they did not help predict the outcomes in individual states or in the Electoral College. </p>
<p>As in 2016 and 2020, the 2024 presidential race will likely be decided by a small number of voters in a limited number of states. With a shift of fewer than 80,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Hillary Clinton would have won <a href="https://www.axios.com/2018/06/28/hillary-clinton-2016-election-votes-supreme-court-liberal-justice">the presidency in 2016</a>. In 2020, a shift of fewer than 45,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin would have resulted in an Electoral College tie. A shift of just 80,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency">Donald Trump would have won reelection</a> in 2020.</p>
<p>In narrowly decided races, polls have less predictive power. But at this point in the cycle, the polls do reveal there’s little reason to believe that 2024 will be anything other than a narrowly decided, and heavily disputed, election outcome.</p>
<p>The most likely presidential candidates in 2024, Biden and Trump, have nearly universal name recognition and sharply different images and positions on the issues. And yet, there is a disproportionate number of undecided and dissatisfied voters heading into the 2024 presidential campaign.</p>
<p>Polling cannot determine with certainty what <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/the-swing-vote-the-untapped-power-independents">these swing voters</a> will end up deciding in November 2024, but by continually tracking their behaviors and attitudes, pollsters can better understand why one of these candidates will emerge as the winner of the 2024 presidential election and what these voters care about. </p>
<p>In a democracy, political polling has made, and continues to make, an invaluable contribution. Objecting to political contests being reduced to a horse race by a poll is valid. But polls, while limited in scope, can provide a nuanced picture of what a country, state or group thinks about both current events and candidates – and how that is changing. </p>
<p>That is valuable information.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213933/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirby Goidel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Data gleaned from even early polls reveals critical clues on how voters view candidates and issues.Kirby Goidel, Professor of Political Science, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2131562023-10-14T09:00:07Z2023-10-14T09:00:07ZVoice to Parliament referendum has been heavily defeated nationally and in all states<p>The Voice to Parliament referendum has failed convincingly after the ABC <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/referendum/2023/results?filter=all&sort=az&state=all&party=all">projected</a> large victories for the “no” side in the national vote and all states. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2023ref/Results/">Poll Bludger</a> is currently projecting a 60.0–40.0% win for “no” in the national vote with 74% of enrolled voters counted. </p>
<p>The Poll Bludger’s current projections in the states are a “no” win in New South Wales (58.9–41.1%), Victoria (54.1–45.9%), Queensland (68.1–31.9%), Western Australia (63.2–36.8), South Australia (64.0–36.0%) and Tasmania (59.0–41.0%).</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-to-parliament-referendum-defeated-results-at-a-glance-215366">Voice to Parliament referendum defeated: results at-a-glance</a>
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<p>The referendum required a majority vote in a majority of the states (four of six), as well as a majority vote nationally, to succeed. Votes cast in the Northern Territory and ACT are only counted in the national vote.</p>
<p>The ACT is the only state or territory that will vote “yes”, by a 60.9–39.1% margin in the Poll Bludger projection. The NT is currently projecting for a 61.7–38.3% “no” vote.</p>
<p>Here is the latest aggregate poll graph that was updated with the final Newspoll and JWS polls and the provisional results.</p>
<p>The pollsters were broadly correct – they have been projecting a win for the “no” side for months. However, the Morgan and Essential polls that had “no” ahead by just six and seven points greatly overstated the “yes” support. </p>
<p>Newspoll’s final poll had a 20-point lead for “no” and YouGov’s final poll an 18-point lead. These two polls were the most accurate compared with the current projected result of a 20-point “no” win. The worst polls for “yes” were more accurate.</p>
<p>There were two late national polls not covered in Friday’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-voice-polls-have-no-leading-by-sizeable-to-landslide-margins-215264">Voice polls article</a> for The Conversation. A <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/indigenous/voice-referendum-newspoll-late-swing-for-yes-campaign-but-nation-poised-to-say-no/news-story/7096dcf9234291d496ba016ccaa5142c">Newspoll</a>, conducted October 4–12 from a sample of 2,638 people, gave “no” a 57–37% lead. And a JWS poll for the <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/yes-vote-in-need-of-a-miracle-poll-shows-20231012-p5ebn7">Financial Review</a>, conducted October 6–9 from a sample of 922 people, gave “no” a 52–39% lead.</p>
<h2>Electorate results</h2>
<p>The ABC has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/referendum/2023/results?filter=all&sort=yes&state=all&party=all">called “yes” wins</a> in 28 of the 151 federal seats and “yes” leads in another five seats. The ABC has called “no” wins in 115 seats, with three seats leaning “no” and not yet decided.</p>
<p>The best electorates for “yes” were inner city seats where Labor and the Greens traditionally do well, such as Greens leader Adam Bandt’s Melbourne electorate, Grayndler and Sydney in NSW, and Canberra in the ACT. The three Queensland seats won by the Greens in the 2022 election also voted “yes”. </p>
<p>All the seats won by “teal” independents in 2022 appear to have voted “yes”, although Curtin and Mackellar are still in doubt. </p>
<p>The six electorates with the highest “no” votes were all in rural Queensland. Traditional Labor strongholds, such as Calwell and Scullin in Melbourne, also voted “no” by large margins.</p>
<p>Some postal votes were counted last night, so what remains to be counted is largely absent votes and late postal votes. These will report in the next two weeks. I believe these votes will help the “yes” side hold the electorates where it currently leads. The overall result will remain a heavy defeat.</p>
<h2>Labor referendums very rarely win</h2>
<p>In May, I wrote that just one of 25 Labor-initiated referendums had succeeded in winning the required majority of states, as well as a national majority. While not successful, Labor referendums held with general elections have performed far better than when held as a standalone referendum.</p>
<p>In view of this history, it was a blunder to hold this referendum as a standalone vote, rather than at the next general election.</p>
<p>Six of 18 referendums proposed by conservative governments have succeeded. The reason for the huge difference in success rate between Labor and conservative-initiated referendums is that Labor sometimes gives its support to conservative referendums, while the conservatives almost never do in reverse.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-the-voice-has-a-large-poll-lead-now-history-of-past-referendums-indicates-it-may-struggle-204365">While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our election analyst lays out the current projections across the nation.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151562023-10-08T20:41:28Z2023-10-08T20:41:28ZVoice support falls in Newspoll to new low, but is up in Resolve though still well behind<p>The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on Saturday. Polls close at 6pm AEDT in the south-eastern states, 6:30pm in South Australia, 7pm in Queensland, 7:30pm in the Northern Territory and 9pm in Western Australia.</p>
<p>I expect counting to be faster than at a federal election, as there’s just one question with a yes/no response, not multiple candidates. Ordinary votes cast at election day or pre-poll booths should be counted on election night. Postal and absent votes will be counted in the following weeks.</p>
<p>For a referendum to succeed, it requires a majority in at least four of the six states as well as a national majority. Polls imply there is no realistic chance of a national “yes” majority, so the double majority is a moot point.</p>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labors-stocks-fall-as-support-for-the-indigenous-voice-hits-new-low/news-story/598ba848d91a9954766affb18fedee2c">Newspoll</a>, conducted October 3–6 from a sample of 1,225, gave “no” to the Voice a 58–34 lead, out from 56–36 in the previous Newspoll, two weeks ago. With the 8% undecided excluded, “no” led by 63–37.</p>
<p>Here is the updated 2023 Voice polls graph. It includes the latest polls from Newspoll, Resolve, Morgan and YouGov (only one point so far for YouGov). In Resolve and last week’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-up-in-essential-poll-but-it-is-still-behind-214257">Essential</a>, “yes” has gained ground, but in other polls “yes” continues to fall.</p>
<p>Labor led by 53–47 on voting intentions, a one-point gain for the Coalition. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (down two), 12% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (down one) and 13% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 46% dissatisfied (up two) and 45% satisfied (down two), for a net approval of -1. After slumping to net -20 in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-and-albanese-recover-in-newspoll-as-dutton-falls-but-the-voices-slump-continues-213867">previous Newspoll</a>, Peter Dutton’s net approval jumped seven points to -13. Albanese’s lead as better PM was reduced to 50–33, from 50–30 previously, its narrowest since the election.</p>
<p>Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll, showing the continued drop in his ratings since late 2022.</p>
<h2>Large-sample Resolve poll gives ‘no’ a 56–44 lead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/confusion-over-the-voice-keeps-the-no-vote-in-front-despite-a-late-gain-for-yes-20231005-p5ea45.html?btis=">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers was conducted over two weeks (September 22 to October 4) from a sample of 4,728. This sample is about three times Resolve’s normal sample of 1,600.</p>
<p>“No” to the Voice led in this poll by 56–44 after a forced choice question, in from a 57–43 “no” lead in early September. Initial preferences were 49% “no” (<a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-and-albaneses-ratings-continue-to-tumble-in-resolve-and-other-polls-212872">steady</a>), 38% “yes” (up three) and 13% undecided (down three).</p>
<p>Tasmania was the only state where “yes” led, by 56–44. In New South Wales, “no” led by 52–48, in Victoria by 54–46, in SA by 55.5–44.5, in WA by 61–39 and in Queensland “no” led by 64–36.</p>
<p>This state data suggests that if “yes” somehow got over 50% in Saturday’s results, “yes” would win majorities in four states by adding six points to the current “yes” vote in every state, and so a double majority could be attained with SA the key state. But it’s very unrealistic to expect such a result.</p>
<p>This is the first gain for “yes” in Resolve’s Voice polls since April, when the “yes” lead increased from 57–43 in March to 58–42. By June, “no” was ahead by 51–49, and the “no” lead increased to 57–43 in September.</p>
<p>A key theme of the “no” campaign has been “if you don’t know vote no”. In this poll, 29% said they were happy to cast their ballot on the principles of the Voice without knowing the design, while 60% wanted more information.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: ‘no’ leads by 46–37</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/support-for-no-case-now-at-46-well-ahead-of-yes-case-on-37-as-early-referendum-voting-starts">Morgan Voice</a> poll, conducted September 25 to October 1 from a sample of 909, gave “no” to the Voice a 46–37 lead, out from a 44–39 “no” lead the previous week. With undecided excluded, “no” led by 56–44, out from 53–47. Morgan’s two online Voice polls have been relatively favourable to “yes”.</p>
<p>Morgan’s weekly <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">federal poll</a> last week gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition, 32.5% Labor, 13% Greens and 17% for all Others. This poll was conducted September 25 to October 1 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9509-roy-morgan-update-october-3-2023">sample</a> of 1,406.</p>
<h2>YouGov Voice poll: ‘no’ leads by 53–38</h2>
<p>Newspoll is now being conducted by Pyxis, but until mid-July it was conducted by YouGov. YouGov is now doing its own polls. A national <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/47503-no-53-yes-38-in-voice-referendum-poll">YouGov poll</a>, conducted September 25–29 from a sample of 1,563, gave “no” a 53–38 lead. “Yes” was ahead by 48–41 in inner metropolitan seats, but “no” was far ahead in all other regions.</p>
<p>Labor led by 53–47 on voting intentions from primary votes of 35% Coalition, 33% Labor, 13% Greens and 19% for all Others. Albanese’s net approval was -3, while Dutton’s was -17, with Albanese leading Dutton by 50–33 as preferred PM.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/46044-one-year-king-charles-reign-where-do-australian-at">national poll on the monarchy</a>, conducted September 2–5 from a sample of 1,203, had net approval ratings for various United Kingdom royals and Australian politicians. </p>
<p>Prince William was at net +49, King Charles at net +10, Penny Wong at net +8, Jacqui Lambie at net +8, Tanya Plibersek at net +2, David Littleproud at net -6, Adam Bandt at net -12, Pauline Hanson at net -16, Prince Harry at net -17, Duchess Meghan Markle at net -32 and Prince Andrew at net -48.</p>
<h2>UK Labour has huge win at Scottish byelection</h2>
<p>I covered last Thursday’s UK byelection in Rutherglen for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/10/05/uk-rutherglen-by-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>, in which Labour overturned a 10-point Scottish National Party margin in 2019 to win by 31 points. There will be two byelections in Conservative-held seats on October 19.</p>
<p>The ousting of Kevin McCarthy as United States House Speaker, the October 15 Polish election and a pro-Russia party winning the most seats at the September 30 Slovakian election were also covered.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With less than a week to go until the Voice referendum, the polls are looking grim for the “yes” campaign.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138672023-09-24T23:26:08Z2023-09-24T23:26:08ZLabor and Albanese recover in Newspoll as Dutton falls, but the Voice’s slump continues<p>A national Newspoll, conducted September 18–22 from a sample of 1,239, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 36% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (down one), 11% Greens (down two), 6% One Nation (down one) and 11% for all Others (up three).</p>
<p>While Labor’s primary vote improved at the Coalition’s expense, the drop for the Greens should have cost Labor preferences. Rounding appears to have contributed to Labor’s gain after preferences.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 47% satisfied (up one) and 44% dissatisfied (down three), for a net approval of +3, up four points. He returns to net positive approval after falling into net negative for the first time this term in the previous Newspoll.</p>
<p>Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll.</p>
<p>Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s net approval fell nine points to -20. This is his worst net approval, beating a -19 net approval in April. Albanese led as better PM by 50–30 (50–31 three weeks ago).</p>
<p>While Labor and Albanese improved and Dutton fell, the Voice’s slump continued, with “no” now ahead by 56–36, out from a 53–38 “no” lead in early September. Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/09/24/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-open-thread-3/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>This Newspoll is the second to be conducted by Pyxis after it was previously conducted by YouGov.</p>
<p>The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. I have updated the 2023 Voice polls graph with Newspoll and Redbridge (see below).</p>
<p>Since June, every pollster has released worse results for “yes” in their most recent poll than in their prior poll. The history of Labor-initiated referendums shows they have been defeated heavily when held as standalone referendums, with closer losses when held with a general election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-the-voice-has-a-large-poll-lead-now-history-of-past-referendums-indicates-it-may-struggle-204365">While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle</a>
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<p>It’s clear from the polling that it was a blunder to hold this referendum as a standalone vote rather than with a general election.</p>
<p>Voting in the referendum is compulsory, but not everyone will vote. A question on likelihood to vote in <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/no-vote-gains-more-ground-amid-a-loss-of-support-for-peter-dutton/news-story/e2e7eebb8ab6c36a45490e558174e727">The Australian’s report</a> found 91% of “yes” supporters and 90% of “no” supporters would either definitely or very likely vote.</p>
<p>There is a large gap in “yes” support by educational attainment, with university-educated people voting “yes” by 54–40, while those with TAFE/college are voting “no” by 59–34 and those without tertiary education are “no” by 66–25.</p>
<p>Dutton’s negativity on the Voice may be affecting his ratings, and Labor may be benefiting from better perceptions on the economy. Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9320-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-september-19">consumer confidence</a> index has been below 80 for a record 29 successive weeks or almost seven months, but it was barely below 80 at 79.8 last week.</p>
<p>In last fortnight’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">federal Resolve poll</a>, the Liberals extended their lead over Labor on economic management from 33–32 in August to 36–30. For the first time this term, the Liberals led on keeping the cost of living low, by 28–27, reversing a Labor lead of 30–26 in August.</p>
<h2>Referendum court case, Morgan and Redbridge polls</h2>
<p>United Australia Party Senator Ralph Babet challenged the Australian Electoral Commission’s decision, based on longstanding legal advice, to count ticks as formal “yes” votes but crosses as informal. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/20/indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-united-australia-party-crosses-votes-dismissed?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">federal court</a> last Wednesday ruled in the AEC’s favour. With “no” so far ahead in the national Voice polls, it’s very unlikely this issue will affect the result.</p>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan poll</a>, conducted September 11–17 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9494-roy-morgan-update-september-12-2023">sample</a> of 1,234, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes have not been provided.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/redbridge-poll-finds-voters-dont-think-voice-to-parliament-is-a-top5-priority/news-story/48af8dc8fc67285fa92a2074a82e2e92">Daily Telegraph reported</a> Sunday that a Redbridge national Voice poll, taken “last week”, gave “no” a 62–38 lead, a slight widening from a 61–39 “no” lead in <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-and-albaneses-ratings-continue-to-tumble-in-resolve-and-other-polls-212872">early September</a>.</p>
<h2>Victorian Redbridge poll: Labor far ahead</h2>
<p>A Victorian state <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Vic-votes-survey-Sept-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a>, conducted August 31 to September 14 from a large sample of 3,001, gave Labor a 56.5–43.5 lead, from primary votes of 37% Labor, 34% Coalition, 13% Greens and 16% for all Others. There are detailed breakdowns by gender, age, region, education level, household income and home ownership status.</p>
<p>This is the first Victorian Redbridge poll. The last <a href="https://theconversation.com/lnp-takes-lead-in-queensland-resolve-poll-but-labor-still-far-ahead-in-victoria-211674">Victorian Resolve poll</a>, conducted in July and August, also gave Labor a large lead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213867/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The prime minister’s approval ratings have turned around from the last Newspoll - but the “yes” campaign for the Voice referendum continues to struggle.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2038302023-07-10T12:29:27Z2023-07-10T12:29:27ZWhy do voters have to pick a Republican or a Democrat in the US?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533744/original/file-20230623-25-t55j78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters often believe they only have two choices in American elections, even when multiple candidates appear on a ballot. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/democrat-donkey-standing-against-republican-royalty-free-image/1301850016?adppopup=true">OsakaWayne Studios/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
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<blockquote>
<p><strong>Why does it have to be Democrat vs. Republican in elections? Why can’t it be Republican vs. Republican or Democrat vs. Democrat? – Gianna, age 13, Phoenix, Arizona</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>Americans are used to having a lot of choices. What to wear today? What to eat? What to read? </p>
<p>Yet in so many elections – when picking a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html">president</a>, state <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-georgia-governor.html">governor</a> or <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-california-mayor-los-angeles.html">mayor</a> – we seem to have only two choices: Vote for the Democrat or the Republican. </p>
<p>Why does the United States have a two-party political system? </p>
<p>As a <a href="http://www.christopherjdevine.com/">political scientist</a> who studies <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/11/16/can-floridas-recount-be-done-fairly-maybe-heres-what-makes-the-difference/">political</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/15/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-how-third-party-candidates-did-in-2016/">parties</a> – particularly the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2021-0011">Libertarian</a> <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700629282/beyond-donkeys-and-elephants/">Party</a> – I can tell you there are other options. </p>
<h2>Why do we have a two-party system?</h2>
<p>Political scientists like me have a simple explanation for the United States’ two-party system: <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/political-parties-their-organization-and-activity-in-the-modern-state/oclc/983396">Duverger’s</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpBRGXK-QNs">law</a>, named after French political scientist Maurice Duverger. It states that only two major parties will emerge whenever elections follow a set of rules known as single-winner plurality voting. </p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Single-winner_system">Single-winner</a> means only one candidate can win a given election. Plurality voting means whoever gets the most votes wins. Under this system, a party is most likely to win if it runs (or nominates) only one candidate rather than allowing party supporters to split their votes among multiple candidates. </p>
<p>Many voters who prefer an independent or minor-party candidate might decide that it would be more practical to choose among the major-party candidates who have better odds of winning the election. Thus, even when more than two candidates appear on a ballot, voters often believe that they only have two choices: the Republican or Democrat. </p>
<p>Think of it this way: Suppose a teacher threw a class party and agreed to order whatever food the students wanted. There are just two rules: The teacher will order only one food item for the whole class (single-winner), and whichever food gets the most votes wins (plurality vote). Rather than 10 pizza lovers splitting their vote with six for cheese and four for pepperoni – leaving seven ice cream fans to scoop up the victory – they can unite behind one pizza flavor and win. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black and white ballot shows choices for Republican, Democrat and Libertarian." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533745/original/file-20230623-15-6np9vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Republicans and Democrats have finished first or second in every presidential election since 1852 except for one.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-voting-ballot-royalty-free-image/1368205704?adppopup=true">Tetra Images via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The same logic explains why the U.S. has a two-party system. When there can be only one winner, and the winner is whoever gets the most votes, people with similar but not identical preferences have good reason to find common ground and work together – or else they’ll lose. They must try to build a coalition of voters that is bigger than any other. In turn, that group’s opponents will try to counter by enlarging their own coalition. </p>
<p>Thus, the rules for voting dictate that we end up with two large “parties” competing to be big enough to win the next election. While other options exist, many voters decide to pick between the only two that can win.</p>
<h2>It doesn’t have to be Republican vs. Democrat</h2>
<p>While a Democrat or Republican wins most elections in the United States, that doesn’t mean voters can only have two choices. Consider these three points.</p>
<p>First, the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> does not allow for only two political parties. In fact, the Constitution says nothing at all about parties. Many of the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CDOC-106sdoc21/pdf/GPO-CDOC-106sdoc21.pdf">Founding</a> <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/01-14-02-0402">Fathers</a> were skeptical of such “<a href="https://guides.loc.gov/federalist-papers/text-1-10#s-lg-box-wrapper-25493273">factions</a>,” fearing that they would divide the American people and serve the interests of ambitious politicians. Yet many of those same visionaries soon helped to form the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/duel-federalist-and-republican-party/">first political parties</a>, after realizing the importance of coordinating with like-minded people to win elections and advance a common policy agenda. With a <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1820">few</a> <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1860">brief</a> <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1912">exceptions</a>, the United States has had a two-party system ever since. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Voters cast their ballots at separate cubicles behind a box labeled Place Ballots Here." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534436/original/file-20230627-21-vywuo3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. Constitution does not state that there only has be two political parties in presidential or other elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/voters-voting-in-polling-place-royalty-free-image/142021136?phrase=ballot&adppopup=true">Hill Street Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Second, plenty of candidates run for office every year as something other than a Republican or Democrat. These include <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Independent">independents</a> who are not affiliated with any party or <a href="https://www.politics1.com/parties.htm">minor-party</a> nominees – for instance, from the Libertarian or Green Party. It’s just that these candidates <a href="https://fairvote.org/a_history_of_independent_presidential_candidates/">typically do not garner many votes</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Bernie_Sanders">rarely</a> win <a href="https://my.lp.org/civicrm/?civiwp=CiviCRM&q=civicrm/profile&gid=37&force=1&crmRowCount=100&reset=1">an election</a>. </p>
<p>Take the nation’s third-largest political party, the Libertarian Party. As <a href="https://udayton.edu/news/articles/2020/05/libertarian_party.php">my research</a> shows, Libertarians generally agree with the Republican Party on economic issues and the Democratic Party on social issues. This makes the Libertarian Party appealing to some voters who consider themselves <a href="https://time.com/4483779/gary-johnson-aleppo-transcript">fiscally conservative and socially liberal</a>. </p>
<p>Third, in states such as California that have a <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Top-two_primary">top-two primary</a> system, elections sometimes come down to two candidates from the same party. This process begins with an open primary in which voters may choose among multiple candidates from various parties at the same time. The top two vote-getters go on to the general election months later – even if they are both <a href="https://www.losaltosonline.com/news/congressional-candidates-eshoo-kumar-debate-who-is-really-getting-things-done/article_7c377f54-5499-11ed-a5e2-bf4226bef394.html">Democrats</a> or <a href="https://calmatters.org/california-voter-guide-2022/state-assembly/assembly-races/#hot-district-34">Republicans</a>. </p>
<p>Other states, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maine-house-district-2">Maine</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-alaska-us-house-district-1.html">Alaska</a>, use <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3crCblDahy8">ranked-choice voting</a>. This system <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-ranked-choice-voting-a-political-scientist-explains-165055">allows voters to rank all candidates</a> – Democratic, Republican, independent or minor party – from their favorite to least favorite on the same ballot. The winner is whichever candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, either at first or after <a href="https://theconversation.com/maine-congressional-election-an-important-test-of-ranked-choice-voting-106960">eliminating the last-place finisher and reallocating</a> that candidate’s voters to their second-choice candidates. </p>
<p>So voters often do have more options than simply Democrat vs. Republican. The problem is that people feel as if only one party or the other has a chance to win – and cast their votes accordingly. It all comes down to the rules for running elections. If you want more choices, you’ll have to change those rules. </p>
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<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com</a>. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.</em></p>
<p><em>And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203830/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The United States has a two-party political system because of single-winner plurality voting.Christopher Devine, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023272023-03-25T10:35:36Z2023-03-25T10:35:36ZLabor very likely to win majority in NSW election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517469/original/file-20230325-26-yk0nz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article was updated March 26</em>.</p>
<hr>
<p>With 36% of enrolled voters counted in today’s New South Wales state election, the <a href="https://pollbludger.net/nsw2023/Results/">Poll Bludger’s results</a> currently have Labor leading in 53 of the 93 seats, the Coalition in 27, the Greens in three and independents in ten. Called seats are 43 Labor, 20 Coalition, two Greens and six independents.</p>
<p>If all current leads hold, Labor would have a 13-seat majority. They would need to lose seven seats they currently lead in to fall short of a majority.</p>
<p>The ABC’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/results/party-totals">two party estimate</a> has Labor leading by 55.1-44.9, a 7.1% swing to Labor since the 2019 NSW election. If this holds, Labor would do better than in all pre-election polls. Newspoll’s 54.5-45.5 to Labor margin came closest, but it is likely there was late movement to Labor that the polls missed by not polling in the final days before the election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-nsw-newspoll-gives-labor-a-thumping-lead-federal-labors-lead-widens-202332">Final NSW Newspoll gives Labor a thumping lead; federal Labor's lead widens</a>
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<p>Victory in NSW gives Labor control of all the mainland state and territory governments and the federal government. The only Australian jurisdiction remaining in Coalition control is Tasmania. The next state election is the October 2024 Queensland election.</p>
<p>Since Labor won the May 2022 federal election, they have performed impressively at both the Victorian and NSW state elections, defying expectations that the party in power federally should do badly in state elections. Federal Labor has consistently been polling honeymoon support levels since the election.</p>
<p>Perrottet had made a stand on reforming gambling, but voters were tired of the Coalition after three four-year terms of Coalition government. Cost of living was easily voters’ top concern, and Labor led by 35-29 on this issue in the last NSW Resolve poll.</p>
<p>I will have more analysis of the NSW results and the upper house tomorrow morning.</p>
<h2>Updates</h2>
<p>With 50.2% of enrolled voters counted, the Poll Bludger results continue to show Labor leading in 51 of the 93 seats, the Coalition in 30, the Greens in three and independents in nine. Called seats are 44 for Labor, 25 Coalition, two Greens and seven independents. </p>
<p>Newcastle can be added to called seats for Labor, as Labor is way ahead on primary votes and it doesn’t matter which of the Greens or Liberals is second.</p>
<p>So 14 seats remain in some doubt, and Labor needs two of the doubtful seats to win a majority. They would have to lose five seats they currently are projected to lead in to miss a majority.</p>
<p>The Poll Bludger’s results are using booth matched projections, where overall swings so far are applied to the outstanding votes. Unless there is a systematic bias against Labor in the remaining votes to be counted, Labor will win a majority.</p>
<p>Counting will not resume until Monday. There are many pre-poll votes still outstanding. Until we see these votes, it’s not certain that Labor has won a majority.</p>
<p>The ABC currently estimates a Labor two party margin of 54.3-45.7, a 6.3% swing to Labor since the 2019 election. Primary votes are 37.1% Labor (up 3.8%), 34.8% Coalition (down 6.8%), 10.1% Greens (up 0.6%), 1.8% One Nation (up 0.7%), 1.5% Shooters (down 2.0%) and 14.7% for all Others (up 3.7%). The Others category includes 8.8% for independents (up 4.0%).</p>
<h2>Left a good chance to take control of upper house</h2>
<p>In the upper house, 21 of the 42 seats were up for election by statewide proportional representation with preferences, and a quota was 1/22 of the vote or 4.5%.</p>
<p>With 33.2% of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/guide/lc-results">enrolled counted</a> in the upper house, Labor has 8.15 quotas, the Coalition 6.43, the Greens 2.21, One Nation 1.23, Legalise Cannabis 0.87, the Liberal Democrats 0.73, the Shooters 0.67, Animal Justice 0.47 and Elizabeth Farrelly 0.27.</p>
<p>Current totals do not include below the line (BTL) votes, which will not start to be data entered until next week. The major parties do poorly on BTL votes and the Greens and minor parties well. BTL votes are included in the 5.6% for Other, but some of the Other votes will be informal.</p>
<p>On the current count, Labor would win eight of the 21 seats, the Coalition six, the Greens two, and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, the Liberal Democrats and the Shooters. The final seat would be a contest between Animal Justice and the Coalition.</p>
<p>While the BTL issue will hurt the Coalition, they will be assisted if the current results are skewed against them. This seat will decide whether left-wing parties (Labor, the Greens, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice) win the 21 seats up at this election by 11-10 or 12-9.</p>
<p>I said in my preview article last week that the left needed a 12-9 win to secure an overall upper house majority.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-election-preview-labor-likely-to-fall-short-of-a-majority-which-could-result-in-hung-parliament-201289">NSW election preview: Labor likely to fall short of a majority, which could result in hung parliament</a>
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<p>Labor has 39.3% of the vote in the upper house but just 37.1% in the lower house. I would normally expect Labor’s upper house vote to be weaker, but this may be explained by normal Labor voters tactically voting for independents in the lower house.</p>
<h2>Federal Aston byelection and Resolve Voice poll</h2>
<p>The federal byelection for the Victorian Liberal-held seat of Aston is next Saturday April 1. With Labor’s lead increasing in <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-nsw-newspoll-gives-labor-a-thumping-lead-federal-labors-lead-widens-202332">recent federal polls</a>, they remain some chance to overturn the current 2.8% Liberal margin, but the Liberals are likely to hold.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-likely-to-win-aston-byelection-voice-support-increases-in-essential-poll-199395">Liberals likely to win Aston byelection; Voice support increases in Essential poll</a>
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<p>In additional questions from the federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, support for an <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voice-majority-holding-steady-but-support-drops-in-wa-queensland-20230324-p5cuyu.html?btis=">Indigenous Voice</a> to parliament slid to 57-43 in a forced choice from 58-42 in February. There was no shift in initial preferences, with 46% in favour, 32% opposed and 22% undecided.</p>
<p>Comparing state results for February and March with those for December and January (two months of data mean larger samples), Voice support fell from 56-44 to 52-48 in Queensland, and from 61-39 to 52-48 in Western Australia. To pass a constitutional referendum, four of the six states must vote in favour as well as an overall majority.</p>
<p>This poll was conducted March 12-16, so it was taken before Anthony Albanese announced the question wording on Thursday.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202327/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even with a handful of seats still in doubt, Chris Minns’ Labor Party is on track for majority government.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023322023-03-24T20:55:56Z2023-03-24T20:55:56ZFinal NSW Newspoll gives Labor a thumping lead; federal Labor’s lead widens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517466/original/file-20230324-1282-iy65b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Lloyd/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New South Wales state election is today. Polls close at 6pm AEDT. Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.</p>
<p>ABC elections analyst <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/nsw2023-pre-poll-and-postal-vote-application-rates-by-district/">Antony Green</a> said that as of Friday, 28% of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10% had applied for a postal vote. All election day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10:30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.</p>
<p>The final NSW Newspoll, conducted March 18-23 from a sample of 1,205, gave Labor a 54.5-45.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the late February NSW Newspoll. Primary votes were 38% Labor (up two), 35% Coalition (down two), 11% Greens (down one) and 16% for all Others (up one).</p>
<p>Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet’s net approval slumped 12 points to -3, while Labor leader Chris Minns’ net approval improved six points to +14. Minns led Perrottet as better premier by 41-39, reversing a Perrottet lead of 43-33 in February. Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/24/newspoll-54-5-45-5-to-labor-in-nsw/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>In Monday’s Resolve poll and two polls from Freshwater and Morgan (below), Labor had between 52.5% and 53.5% on a two party count – this would probably not be enough for a Labor majority in the lower house. But <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/03/nsw-lower-house-2023-final-days-rolling.html">analyst Kevin Bonham’s model</a> gives Labor just enough for a one-seat majority (47 of the 93 seats) if Newspoll is right.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-election-preview-labor-likely-to-fall-short-of-a-majority-which-could-result-in-hung-parliament-201289">NSW election preview: Labor likely to fall short of a majority, which could result in hung parliament</a>
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<p>Cost of living has been rated the most important issue in polls, and <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/22/new-south-wales-election-minus-three-days-2/">The Poll Bludger reported</a> that last Monday’s NSW Resolve poll gave Labor a 35-29 lead over the Coalition on this issue.</p>
<p>Under optional preferential voting that is used in NSW, a single “1” vote is formal. The <a href="https://twitter.com/LiberalNSW/status/1638291515545120769">Liberals are urging people</a> to just vote 1 Liberal. I am sceptical of this strategy, because those who listen to this message are more likely to be voters for other right-wing minor parties than the Greens, and at the 2019 election the exhaust rate among right-wing minors was far higher than for the Greens.</p>
<h2>NSW Freshwater poll: Labor retains 53-47 lead</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/22/new-south-wales-election-minus-three-days-2/">Poll Bludger</a> reported that a NSW Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted March 19-21 from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since late February. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 37% Labor (down two), 10% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (up two). Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier narrowed from 46-34 to 45-40.</p>
<h2>NSW Morgan poll: Labor had 53.5-46.5 lead in mid-March</h2>
<p>A NSW <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9208-roy-morgan-sms-survey-on-nsw-voting-intention-march-2023">Morgan SMS poll</a>, conducted March 10-14 from a sample of 1,013, gave Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since late February. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (up 1.5), 34% Labor (up 0.5), 13% Greens (up two), 2% One Nation (down 6.5) and 17% for all Others (up 2.5).</p>
<p>Previous Morgan NSW polls had assumed that One Nation would contest all 93 lower house seats, and so their slump in this poll is explained by them only contesting 17 seats.</p>
<p>In forced choice questions, Minns’ lead over Perrottet as better premier narrowed from 54-46 to 52-48, while Perrottet had a 51-49 disapproval rating, a reversal of a 53-47 approval in late February.</p>
<h2>Federal Resolve poll: Labor increases massive lead</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-takes-small-lead-on-national-security-amid-aukus-subs-deal-20230320-p5ctn9.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted March 12-16 from a sample of 1,600, gave Labor 39% of the primary vote (down one since February), the Coalition 30% (down one), the Greens 13% (up three), One Nation 5% (steady), the UAP 1% (steady), independents 9% (steady) and others 2% (steady).</p>
<p>No two party estimate was provided, but applying 2022 election preference flows to this poll gives Labor about a 59-41 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since February. Resolve has been the most pro-Labor pollster since the 2022 election.</p>
<p>By 55-31, <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/22/federal-polls-resolve-essential-and-more-open-thread/">voters gave</a> Anthony Albanese a good rating (56-30 in February). Peter Dutton’s ratings were 43-32 poor (44-29 previously). Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 51-22 (55-23 previously).</p>
<p>In the wake of the AUKUS deal, Labor gained a 35-32 lead over the Liberals on national security, after the Liberals led by 35-32 in February. But Labor’s lead on economic management slid to 33-32 from 36-32, and their lead on keeping the cost of living low dropped to 29-22 from 33-24.</p>
<p>Asked about uses of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/health-crisis-yes-home-deposit-not-so-much-what-voters-think-super-should-be-used-for-20230321-p5ctun.html?btis=">super other than for retirement</a>, 68% supported life-saving medical treatment, 67% palliative care and 58% serious financial distress, but only 37% a deposit for a first home. By 45-24, voters agreed with defining super as for retirement, although it could be accessed in extreme circumstances.</p>
<h2>Labor also extends lead in federal Essential and Morgan polls</h2>
<p>In Essential’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">two party measure</a> that includes undecided, Labor led by 52-43 in a poll conducted before March 21 from a sample of 1,124; they led by 49-44 two weeks ago. Primary votes were 34% Labor (up two), 31% Coalition (down one), 14% Greens (up two), 5% One Nation (down two), 2% UAP (steady), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (down two).</p>
<p>Support for the Indigenous Voice to <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/21-march-2023">parliament dropped</a> to 59-41 from 65-35 in February.</p>
<p>On the AUKUS deal, 40% said it would make Australia more secure (down four since November 2022), 39% no difference (steady) and 21% less secure (up five). When told the purchase cost of the nuclear submarines, 26% said they were worth it, 27% would like the subs but didn’t think they were worth the money, and 28% did not want the subs.</p>
<p>Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">weekly federal poll</a> gave Labor a 58-42 lead (56.5-43.5 last week, 54.5-45.5 two weeks ago). Primary votes were 37.5% Labor, 32% Coalition, 13% Greens and 17.5% for all Others. This poll was conducted March 13-19.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202332/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The final NSW election polls vary on the predicted outcome, but they all point to a Labor win.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002322023-02-21T03:53:02Z2023-02-21T03:53:02ZLabor’s lead drops in Resolve and Essential polls, but they are still far ahead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511313/original/file-20230221-28-5lb49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-honeymoon-period-is-over-but-dutton-still-trails-20230220-p5cm1h.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted February 15-19 from a sample of 1,604, gave Labor 40% of the primary vote (down two since January), the Coalition 31% (up two), the Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (up one) and others 2% (steady). Two points were lost to rounding.</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until close to elections, but applying 2022 election preference flows to these primary votes gives Labor a 58-42 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since January.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings slumped, with 56% (down four) who said he was doing a good job, while 31% (up six) said he was doing a poor job. That gave Albanese a net approval of +25, down ten points.</p>
<p>Opposition Leader Peter Dutton had a net approval of -16, up one point. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 55-23 (55-20 in January).</p>
<p>Labor led the Liberals by 36-32 on party that would perform best on economic management (37-29 in January). On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 33-24 (34-20 previously).</p>
<p>Between elections, Resolve asks the “independent” option of all voters without specifying an actual independent candidate. At the 2022 Victorian and federal elections, Resolve asked for specific candidates once ballot papers were printed, and the independent vote crashed both times to realistic levels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-labor-slumps-in-resolve-poll-but-still-in-winning-position-labor-failure-on-upper-house-reform-comes-back-to-bite-194923">Victorian Labor slumps in Resolve poll but still in winning position; Labor failure on upper house reform comes back to bite</a>
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<p>The 9% independent vote in this federal poll and the 13% independent vote in the Victorian Resolve poll below are very likely overstated.</p>
<p>I believe the Reserve Bank’s hiking of interest rates and high inflation are undermining consumer confidence and making it more difficult for the Labor government. Last week, Morgan’s consumer confidence was at its lowest since April 2020, although it <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9170-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-february-21">recovered a little</a> this week.</p>
<h2>Labor’s lead also down in Essential poll</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential’s two party measure</a> that includes undecided voters, Labor’s lead fell to 51-42 from 55-40 last fortnight. Primary votes were 33% Labor (steady), 30% Coalition (steady), 14% Greens (down three), 6% One Nation (steady), 3% UAP (up two), 8% for all Others (steady) and 8% undecided (up three).</p>
<p>In <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/21-february-2023">other results</a> from this poll of 1,044 respondents conducted before February 20, Albanese’s ratings continued to decline from December (+33 net approval). He’s now at +19 net approval, down from +24 in January, with 53% approval and 34% disapproval. These are Albanese’s worst ratings in Essential since he became PM.</p>
<p>The Coalition led Labor by 32-31 on reducing government debt, and was tied 29-29 on handling rising interest rates. Labor led by 36-28 on managing the rising cost of living, and was 16-20 points ahead on insecure work, climate change and improving public services.</p>
<p>On the personal impact of interest rate rises, 3% said they were very positive, 14% somewhat positive, 33% no impact, 31% somewhat negative and 20% very negative. On economic conditions, 56% (up four since November) expected them to worsen in the next 12 months, 19% improve (down five) and 19% stay the same (steady).</p>
<h2>Aston byelection to be held April 1</h2>
<p>Last week I previewed the Aston byelection, concluding that the Liberals are likely to hold Aston. The byelection <a href="https://aec.gov.au/aston/">will be held</a> on April 1.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-likely-to-win-aston-byelection-voice-support-increases-in-essential-poll-199395">Liberals likely to win Aston byelection; Voice support increases in Essential poll</a>
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<h2>NSW election: March 25</h2>
<p>It’s just over a month until the March 25 New South Wales election, but there hasn’t been a NSW voting intentions poll since January. In Essential’s NSW sub sample of over 300, Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet’s ratings slumped to 45% approve, 42% disapprove (51-33 last fortnight), while Labor leader Chris Minns was at 37% approve, 26% disapprove (38-25 previously).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/02/20/new-south-wales-election-minus-five-weeks/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on Monday that Liberal upper house MP Peter Poulos had been dumped from the Liberal ticket after admitting to sharing nude photos of a Liberal colleague who had posed for Penthouse in the 1980s, perhaps explaining the drop in Perrottet’s ratings. Labor’s candidate for Monaro, David Campese, has quit.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor has huge lead after election</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/support-for-daniel-andrews-rises-as-he-marks-3000-days-in-office-20230219-p5clok.html">Victorian Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted with the federal Resolve polls in January and February from a sample around 1,100, gave Labor 41% of the primary vote, the Coalition 30%, the Greens 13%, independents 13% and others 4%.</p>
<p>Resolve does not report a two party estimate except close to elections, but Labor would have about a 60-40 lead (54.9-45.1 at the November 2022 election). Labor Premier Daniel Andrews led new Liberal leader John Pesutto as preferred premier by 50-26.</p>
<h2>US debt limit, UK local and NZ elections</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/02/18/us-debt-limit-uk-local-and-nz-elections/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday that Democrats’ failure to lift the United States debt limit before Republicans took over the House of Representatives on January 3 could cost them, the US and the world, though we probably have until June for this issue to be resolved.</p>
<p>United Kingdom Labour retains a huge lead over the Conservatives with local government elections in England on May 4. On current polling, the Conservatives would lose a large number of seats, leading to more pressure on PM Rishi Sunak. Labour has recovered ground in New Zealand, but a potential right alliance of National and ACT remains ahead of Labour and the Greens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200232/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Latest polling shows some of the gloss coming off federal Labor and Anthony Albanese - but they are still well ahead of the opposition.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1985842023-02-05T20:59:47Z2023-02-05T20:59:47ZAlbanese’s Newspoll ratings drop but Labor maintains big lead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508208/original/file-20230205-23-ukzdfj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A federal Newspoll, conducted February 1-4 from a sample of 1,512, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged on the previous Newspoll in early December. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 34% Coalition (down one), 11% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>While Labor retained a large lead, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings slumped, with 57% satisfied with his performance (down five since December), while 33% were dissatisfied (up four). Albanese’s net approval dropped nine points to +24.</p>
<p>Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval was down one point to -10. Albanese continued to lead Dutton by 56-26 as better PM (59-24 in December). The net approval for Albanese is the lowest in this term so far <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack/leaders.htm?">for Newspoll</a>. Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/02/05/newspoll-55-45-to-labor-open-thread-2/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>In the first Newspoll that has asked about the Indigenous Voice to parliament, voters <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoMwO52aYAA4teL?format=jpg&name=small">supported the Voice</a> by a 56-37 margin with 7% undecided. Greens voters were the strongest supporters (81-10), with Labor voters at 74-18 support. However, Coalition voters were opposed by 59-37 and Other voters, which includes One Nation, were opposed by 53-41.</p>
<p>Labor won government at the May 2022 election, and have now been in office for over eight months. With <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">Australia’s inflation rate</a> still high, a softening in Albanese’s ratings is to be expected.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 57-43 to Labor</h2>
<p>In last week’s weekly <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">federal Morgan poll</a>, Labor led by 57-43, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Labor, 33.5% Coalition, 11.5% Greens and 17.5% for all Others. This poll was conducted January 23-29.</p>
<h2>Resolve additional questions on the republic, Australia Day and bulk billing</h2>
<p>I covered the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-maintains-lead-over-coalition-in-both-federal-and-nsw-resolve-polls-198391">federal Resolve poll</a> in late January. In <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/royal-drama-pushes-australian-voters-towards-republic-poll-20230125-p5cf95.html?btis=">additional questions</a>
, voters favoured Australia becoming a republic by 39-31 (37-36 opposed after the death of the queen in September). </p>
<p>On all the Harry and Meghan revelations, 62% said they had heard about it, but it had no influence on their view of a republic, 14% said they were more likely to support a republic and 7% less likely. By 31-12, voters thought King Charles III is performing well as Australia’s head of state.</p>
<p>By 54-18, voters supported companies allowing their employees to work on Australia Day and swap this with another day. By 47-19, they supported councils offering citizenship ceremonies on days other than Australia Day.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/falling-rate-of-bulk-billing-sparks-urgent-call-for-overhaul-of-medicare-20230127-p5cfxq.html">GP bulk billing</a>, 47% said their GP bulk bills, 18% said their GP used to bulk bill, but doesn’t anymore. 22% said their GP charges a gap fee and 10% said they don’t have a regular GP. Asked to choose the top priority for additional health funding, 46% chose raising the medicare rebate, 29% increased hospital funding and 16% setting up out-of-hours medical clinics.</p>
<h2>Liberals win Victorian Narracan supplementary election</h2>
<p>A supplementary election occurred in the Victorian state Liberal-held Narracan on January 28; the election was postponed from the November 26 state election owing to a candidate’s death.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/narr">Liberals held Narracan</a> by a 62.9-37.1 margin over independent Tony Wolfe, a 2.9% swing to the Liberals from the Liberal vs Labor margin at the 2018 state election. Labor did not contest the supplementary election. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 45.0% Liberals (down 10.6%), 11.1% Greens (up 5.1%), 11.0% Wolfe (new), 7.1% Labour DLP (new), 6.1% Freedom Party (new) and 6.0% One Nation (new). In 2018, Labor had won 31.9% of the primary vote in Narracan. I expect Wolfe to finish second ahead of the Greens after distribution of preferences.</p>
<p>Lower house seats won at the state election are now final, with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/results?filter=all&sort=az">Labor winning</a> 56 of the 88 seats (up one since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Victorian_state_election">2018</a>), the Coalition 28 (up one) and the Greens four (up one). Three independents elected in 2018 either retired or were defeated.</p>
<h2>Victorian election poll performance</h2>
<p>With the November 26 Victorian election complete with Narracan, Labor won 36.6% of the overall <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/results/party-totals">lower house primary vote</a>, the Coalition 34.5%, the Greens 11.5% and all Others 17.4%. Labor won the two party vote by 54.9-45.1, with the ABC assuming Wolfe in Narracan is Labor for this purpose.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-victorian-election-results-how-would-upper-house-look-using-the-senate-system-196291">Final Victorian election results: how would upper house look using the Senate system?</a>
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<p>The table below shows how the three final polls – Resolve, Morgan and Newspoll – performed against the election results. Bold in the table indicates a poll estimate within 1% of the actual result.</p>
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<p>Overall the polling was accurate, with Labor’s actual two party share very close to what was estimated by both Newspoll and Morgan. Of these three polls, Newspoll performed best with primary votes estimates very near actual for both the Coalition and the Greens.</p>
<h2>Old NSW Morgan poll: 55-45 to Labor</h2>
<p>The New South Wales state election will be held in under two months, on March 25. A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9158-roy-morgan-survey-on-nsw-voting-intention-december-2022">Morgan poll</a>, conducted in December but not released until January 31, gave Labor a 55-45 lead over the Coalition, a three-point gain for Labor since November.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 33.5% Coalition (down 3.5), 33.5% Labor (down 1.5), 12% Greens (up 0.5), 4.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 1% Shooters (down 0.5) and 15.5% for all Others (up 5.5). This poll had a sample of 1,446.</p>
<h2>WA changes in National and Liberal leaders</h2>
<p>After Labor’s massive <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_Australian_state_election">March 2021 Western Australian</a> election landslide, Labor held 53 of the 59 lower house seats, the Nationals four and the Liberals two. That made the Nationals the official opposition.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/01/31/the-spoils-of-defeat/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on January 31 that National leader Mia Davies had resigned, and was replaced as opposition leader by Shane Love. For the Liberals, leader David Honey was challenged by Libby Mettam, the only other Liberal in the lower house. This was settled in Mettam’s favour by the Liberals’ seven upper house MPs. Honey conceded defeat, and Mettam was elected unopposed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The first Newspoll to ask about the Indigenous Voice to Parliament also found 56-37 in favour.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1954212022-11-27T08:25:16Z2022-11-27T08:25:16ZMedia go for drama on Victorian election - and miss the story<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497438/original/file-20221127-14-s38r78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the best part of two weeks, Victorian voters were told by the media that the election on November 26 might result in either a <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/james-campbell-liberals-preferences-may-result-in-a-weak-labor-government-forced-to-negotiate-with-a-minor-party/news-story/b4733aec0f2323c88a3f951d9efa098f">hung parliament</a> or a <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/state-election/labor-tipped-to-edge-election-win-but-in-danger-of-minority-government-polling-shows/news-story/0c69e770e6a6b503bfa75a3bbaa7c053">minority Labor government</a>.</p>
<p>In the event, the Labor government was returned with a reduced but clear majority, the size of which is not yet known, while the Coalition has suffered a crushing defeat.</p>
<p>How could the pre-election coverage have been at once so breathless and misleading?</p>
<p>The short answer is because of a combination of groupthink and wishful thinking. Unpacking this requires the disclosure of a few trade secrets.</p>
<p>Two days out from polling day, the Herald Sun published <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/state-election/labor-on-track-to-lose-up-to-a-dozen-seats-in-victorian-election/news-story/ff9cee2f2e17b47387128e3f1863dfd4">an analysis</a> of some focus-group research by RedBridge Group, carried out over the past two years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/attacks-on-dan-andrews-are-part-of-news-corporations-long-abuse-of-power-194023">Attacks on Dan Andrews are part of News Corporation's long abuse of power</a>
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<p>It stated the likeliest scenario on November 26 would see Labor with 43 seats and therefore forced to form a minority government, given it requires 45 seats for a majority. The best-case scenario for Labor was 48 seats and a return to government in its own right.</p>
<p>Earlier in the campaign there had been loose talk in the Herald Sun, based on no particular data, that there could be a hung parliament.</p>
<p>Then in the last week, a Resolve Strategic poll for The Age <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-coalition-neck-and-neck-as-gap-narrows-between-andrews-and-guy-20221121-p5bzxv.html">showed</a> the primary vote for Labor and the Coalition tied at 36%. </p>
<p>It seemed the race was tightening and perhaps a hung parliament or a minority government were real possibilities.</p>
<p>For the media, this is exciting stuff. It suggests drama, suspense, uncertainty – all powerful news values.</p>
<p>So at rival newsdesks, one can imagine an element of consternation. A chief of staff (COS) can be imagined ringing a state political reporter:</p>
<p>COS: “See the Herald Sun has a survey suggesting a minority government?”</p>
<p>Reporter: “Yeah, but some of it’s two years old.”</p>
<p>COS: “Yeah but a minority government. That’s big. I think we have to have something.”</p>
<p>Reporter: “All right. Something.”</p>
<p>COS: “I mean, we’ll look like dills if we don’t have something and it happens.”</p>
<p>Hours later at news conference, where decisions are made on what stories go where, everyone around the table has seen the Herald Sun. At The Age they’ve also seen the ABC pick it up and at the ABC they’ve seen The Age pick it up. Each reinforces the other’s assessment of the story’s credibility.</p>
<p>The chief of staff assures conference that state rounds are on to it. Minority government becomes the story. Its origin in qualitative data, some of which is two years old, stoked up by the Herald Sun as part of its relentless campaign against the Andrews government, is forgotten or overlooked.</p>
<p>Evidence to support the minority-government hypothesis is assembled, especially the Resolve Strategic quantitative data showing the primary votes neck-and-neck.</p>
<p>News conference’s resident Cassandra raises a voice. “What about the two-party-preferred?”</p>
<p>Editor: “What about it?”</p>
<p>Cass: “Every poll we’ve seen so far has Labor ahead by up to ten percentage points. And they’re up to date, not weeks, months or years old.”</p>
<p>Editor: “So you’re saying we should just ignore the RedBridge stuff?”</p>
<p>Cass: “No, but you can’t ignore the two-party-preferred either.”</p>
<p>Editor: “All right. Put in a parachute about the two-party-preferred but lead on the minority government. I mean there could even be a hung parliament. We’ll look like dills if we downplay this.”</p>
<p>Yep. And that’s how you look when wishful thinking and groupthink cloud hard-minded analysis of all the available data. Taken together, the data showed the likeliest (but journalistically least interesting) outcome was the return of the government with a reduced majority.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-dan-andrews-pulled-off-one-of-the-most-remarkable-victories-in-modern-politics-194710">How Dan Andrews pulled off one of the most remarkable victories in modern politics</a>
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<p>Not only did the two-party-preferred vote not tighten appreciably, but the primary vote turned out not to be neck-and-neck. This is not hindsight. The discrepancy between the two should have raised a red flag: how could the primary vote be neck-and-neck when the two-party-preferred gap was so large?</p>
<p>In fairness, it was reasonable to suppose this could just be a function of how the minor party and independent preferences would flow, which was unknowable at the time. But this seemed not to enter the discussion about the prospect of a minority government.</p>
<p>And a hard-headed look at the RedBridge focus-group data would have revealed to a dispassionate analyst that once the more far-fetched cases had been eliminated, Labor was likely to end up with somewhere between 47 and 50 seats.</p>
<p>The ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, is giving Labor 52 seats <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/results?filter=all&sort=az">at this stage</a>, with 68% of the vote counted.</p>
<p>Even more curiously, the hung parliament and minority government possibilities were initially generated by the Herald Sun, which acted throughout as a propaganda arm of the Liberal Party. Why on earth would respectable and usually reliable elements of the media such as The Age and the ABC buy into this nonsense?</p>
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<p>The answer is that it is an abiding weakness in newsroom decision-making to prefer the most dramatic possibility, however remote, over the most mundane but strongest probability.</p>
<p>It is a further weakness to wish not to be scooped on the most dramatic possibility, even at the expense of misleading your audience, looking foolish in the aftermath and buying into scenarios created by your most politically partisan and least reliable media rival.</p>
<p>The result was a feverish outburst of speculation in the final week of the campaign that fed into questioning of Andrews about <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/no-deal-will-be-done-with-crossbench-if-labor-in-minority-government-daniel-andrews-20221126-p5c1gs.html">whether he would entertain</a> doing deals with crossbenchers if Labor could not muster the 45 seats necessary to form government in its own right.</p>
<p>He batted it away with his customary dismissiveness, and who could blame him?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195421/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In covering the final days of the Victorian election, mainstream media fell victim to wanting the most dramatic outcome – no matter how weak the evidence for it may have been.Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1951072022-11-25T20:41:50Z2022-11-25T20:41:50ZFinal Victorian Newspoll gives Labor a large lead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497420/original/file-20221125-7211-pdcgqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian state election is today. There are 88 single-member lower house seats with members elected by preferential voting, and 40 upper house seats in eight five-member electorates. The election in the lower house seat of Narracan has been postponed owing to a candidate’s death.</p>
<p>The final Victorian pre-election Newspoll, conducted November 21-24 from a sample of 1,226, gave Labor a 54.5-45.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the last Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (up one), 35% Coalition (down two), 12% Greens (down one) and 15% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>48% were dissatisfied with Labor Premier Daniel Andrews (up four) and 46% were satisfied (down five), for a net approval of -2, down nine points. But Liberal leader Matthew Guy’s net approval was also down five points to -25. Andrews led as better premier by 51-35 (52-33 three weeks ago). Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/25/newspoll-54-5-45-5-to-labor-in-victoria/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://commercial.yougov.com/rs/464-VHH-988/images/yougov-au-221106-Public-Polling-Methodology-Statement-nov-22.pdf">two party estimate</a> in this Newspoll was calculated using respondent allocated preferences. The Others component of this poll likely contains many anti-Andrews voters, but Guy’s ratings are far worse.</p>
<p>A 54.5-45.5 two party split would give Labor a lower house majority in the Victorian parliament. But with their primary vote down 5% from the 2018 election, they would be likely to lose more upper house seats than if the upper house voting system had been reformed.</p>
<p>Redbridge below is predicting Labor will slide into minority government, but this is not based on recent polling. All polls conducted in the last ten days give Labor between 53% and 55% two party, enough for a clear lower house majority.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-labor-slumps-in-resolve-poll-but-still-in-winning-position-labor-failure-on-upper-house-reform-comes-back-to-bite-194923">Victorian Labor slumps in Resolve poll but still in winning position; Labor failure on upper house reform comes back to bite</a>
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<p>There is some evidence federal Labor’s honeymoon is waning. The latest federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/weekly-update-november-15-2022-victorian-election-mortgage-stress-trust-distrust">Morgan weekly poll</a>, from polling conducted November 14-20, had Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5 for the third successive week, down from 55.5-44.5 previously. This makes it more likely the Victorian Coalition will do well at the state election.</p>
<h2>Redbridge pessimistic for Labor, Morgan optimistic</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/24/victorian-election-minus-two-days-2/">Poll Bludger</a> reported Thursday on an article in The Herald Sun, in which pollster Redbridge Group said they believe “Labor will be reduced to minority government with 43 seats out of 88”, although a best case scenario for Labor would give them 48 seats.</p>
<p>This opinion is not based on any recent fieldwork, but on “extensive polling and hundreds of focus groups in key seats across the state over the past two years”. The last <a href="https://theconversation.com/nine-days-from-victorian-election-a-new-poll-gives-labor-a-modest-lead-us-republicans-win-house-194514">Redbridge Victorian state poll</a> was conducted in early November, and gave Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, enough for a clear win in the lower house.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/alp-government-of-daniel-andrews-set-to-win-with-a-reduced-majority-as-support-for-l-np-grows-but-will-the-trend-continue">Victorian Morgan state</a> SMS poll, conducted November 22-23 from a sample of 1,195, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since a Morgan poll a <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-victorian-polls-have-large-labor-leads-12-days-before-election-us-democrats-hold-senate-at-midterms-194051">fortnight ago</a>. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down two), 32.5% Coalition (up 3.5), 12.5% Greens (up one), 4.5% teal independents (steady) and 12.5% for all Others (down two).</p>
<p>Andrews had a 57.5-42.5 approval rating (58.5-41.5 last fortnight). Andrews led Guy as better premier by 65-35 (65.5-34.5 last fortnight).</p>
<p>If Morgan is correct, the 55-45 Labor lead would give them a large lower house majority. But Morgan’s SMS polls have been unreliable, and this poll is skewing to Labor relative to other pollsters.</p>
<h2>Vote counting</h2>
<p>As at Friday, ABC election <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/tracking-the-early-vote-for-the-2022-victorian-election/">analyst Antony Green</a> said 43.4% of all Victorian enrolled voters had voted early in-person, and a further 13.3% had applied for a postal vote. With a likely final turnout of around 90%, that means over 63% have already voted. Early voting has increased since 2018.</p>
<p>The early voting will slow election night counts as early vote centres will likely take until late at night to report their counts. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/25/victorian-election-minus-one-day/">Poll Bludger</a> said Friday that some postal votes will also be counted on election night. Counting could also be slow owing to the large numbers of candidates.</p>
<p>In the upper house, with eight five-member electorates, a quota is one-sixth of the vote, or 16.7%. It’s probably not safe to call for anyone not elected on quota on election night as small changes in vote share can give a different result under group voting tickets (GVT).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy-190136">How Victorian Labor's failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy</a>
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<p>The ABC will have projections of upper house results <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/guide/calculator-upper">using its calculator</a>. But this calculator assumes that all votes are above the line ticket votes. If a party that needs help from other parties’ GVTs is beating a bigger party by a narrow margin, that lead would likely disappear once below the line votes are factored in.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian EMRS poll: Liberals well ahead</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-November-2022.pdf">Tasmanian state EMRS poll</a>, conducted November 8-15 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 42% of the vote (up one since August), Labor 29% (down two), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 16% (up one), with independents making up 15% of the Others’ 16%. Liberal incumbent Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 46-34 (47-35 in August).</p>
<p>In other Tasmanian news, the <a href="https://tasmps.greens.org.au/media-release/greens-celebrate-house-assembly">lower house</a> of the Tasmanian parliament will be increased from 25 to 35 members at the next election, in five seven-member electorates, from the current five five-member electorates. The lower house had been reduced from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_House_of_Assembly">35 to 25 seats</a> in 1998 in an effort to stop the Greens winning seats.</p>
<p>Under the current five-member electorates, the quota for election is one-sixth of the vote or 16.7%. With seven-member electorates, the quota will drop to one-eighth or 12.5%.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As election day arrives in Victoria, two late polls predict a return of the Andrews Labor government.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1940102022-11-23T13:19:47Z2022-11-23T13:19:47ZMidterm election results reflect the hodgepodge of US voters, not the endorsement or repudiation of a candidate’s or party’s agenda<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496804/original/file-20221122-14-myfvqa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C6%2C4015%2C2675&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters in the midterm elections decided that the GOP would run the House, while the Democrats would run the Senate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-u-s-capitol-building-is-seen-in-washington-d-c-nov-10-news-photo/1244685046?phrase=midterm%20elections%202022&adppopup=true">Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The results from the U.S. midterm elections came as a shock to many. The sitting president’s party typically suffers <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections">significant losses</a> in House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections">first midterm election</a> of a president’s term. <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/midterm-predictions-the-red-tsunami-comes-into-view-once-more/">Several</a> <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3710954-2022-polling-the-bad-the-ugly-and-the-really-ugly/">projections</a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/senate-control-election-model-jump-ball">leading</a> <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2022-election-forecast/">up</a> <a href="https://www.vox.com/22899204/midterm-elections-president-biden-thermostatic-opinion">to</a> <a href="https://newrepublic.com/post/168246/january-6-committee-2022-election">Election Day</a> speculated that a “<a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3712202-how-the-impending-red-wave-could-become-a-tsunami/">red wave</a>” – at one point upgraded to a “<a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/23/republican-wave-midterms-congress">red tsunami</a>” – of massive Republican gains across the electoral board would swamp Democrats.</p>
<p>Yet it was clear by the end of Election Day that Democrats had performed far better than expected. The “red wave” never materialized. Republican <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/16/1133125177/republicans-control-house-of-representatives">gains in the House</a> were meager. The Democrats <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-senate.html">maintained control</a> of the Senate by flipping Pennsylvania and winning tight races elsewhere. </p>
<p>The Democrats’ success bucks a long-standing trend in U.S. politics. The president’s popularity is often taken by pollsters and analysts as a <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2022-midterm-elections-what-the-historical-data-suggest">key indicator</a> of his party’s <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/393626/usual-midterm-indicators-unfavorable-democrats.aspx">midterm prospects</a>. Biden’s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">approval rating</a> has been low throughout his presidency. Going <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/politics/joe-biden-gallup-poll-midterm-elections">into Election Day</a>, his unpopularity was <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/20/bidens-job-rating-is-similar-to-trumps-but-lower-than-that-of-other-recent-presidents/">comparable</a> to that of preceding presidents who endured substantial midterm losses. Current polling shows that <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/">57% of Americans disapprove</a> of Biden and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/07/voters-blame-democrats-poor-economy-inflation-00065325">70% say</a> the country is on the wrong track. Moreover, Americans trust the GOP more than the Democrats to handle <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/October-2022-ABC-news-poll">important issues</a> such as inflation, crime and unemployment. Yet the Democrats pulled off a surprise victory – by not losing as much as expected.</p>
<p>What happened?</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://as.vanderbilt.edu/philosophy/bio/robertb-talisse">political philosopher</a> who researches <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/sustaining-democracy-9780197556450?cc=us&lang=en&">democracy and partisanship</a>, I can say that there’s no simple explanation of the midterms, despite the many that have already been declared, published or broadcast. </p>
<p>Elections are complex, and citizens are complicated. Voters embrace a range of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/03/key-facts-about-u-s-voter-priorities-ahead-of-the-2022-midterm-elections/">priorities</a>, they have different levels of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2021/02/22/how-americans-navigated-the-news-in-2020-a-tumultuous-year-in-review/">information</a> about their options and they’re <a href="https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2022/6/23/analyzing-the-issues-that-motivate-voters">motivated</a> by different concerns. </p>
<p>Some data suggests that citizens have vastly different ideas about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764217720481">what it means to vote</a>. Some see voting as a display of support for one’s party, others view it as the registering of one’s desires and some see their vote as expressing a judgment about the common good. It’s plausible that many citizens took themselves mainly to be <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-20/jan-6-hearings-seen-tipping-some-midterm-races-to-democrats?leadSource=uverify%20wall">voting against</a> disliked candidates rather than for favored candidates.</p>
<p>So while <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/11/tim-ryan-mehmet-oz-trudy-dixon-concession-speech-integrity/">politicians</a> and <a href="https://www.kettering.org/blogs/power-of-concession">pundits</a> are fond of saying that elections express the “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-midterm-elections-showed-strength-us-democracy-2022-11-14/">will of the people</a>,” in reality they don’t. Taken as a collective, the electorate is too much of a hodgepodge to have a will of its own.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496802/original/file-20221122-26-obu6wn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People counting ballots at a table, with signs saying 'Dem' and 'Rep' for each party." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496802/original/file-20221122-26-obu6wn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496802/original/file-20221122-26-obu6wn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496802/original/file-20221122-26-obu6wn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496802/original/file-20221122-26-obu6wn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496802/original/file-20221122-26-obu6wn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496802/original/file-20221122-26-obu6wn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496802/original/file-20221122-26-obu6wn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Ballots are processed by bipartisan election workers at the Clark County Election Department on Nov. 10, 2022, in North Las Vegas, Nev.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ballots-are-processed-by-bipartisan-election-workers-at-the-news-photo/1440614449?phrase=midterm%20elections%202022&adppopup=true">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>There’s no big picture</h2>
<p>It goes without saying that Democrats will interpret the results as <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/11/09/remarks-by-president-biden-in-press-conference-8/">proof</a> that their political platform is widely embraced by the American people. Meanwhile, Republicans will seek an explanation for how their <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/midterm-elections-congress-house-results/card/mitch-mcconnell-says-republican-messaging-frightened-some-swing-voters-P0YKnPfB8UeYPcwxyWBd">message failed to reach</a> voters. </p>
<p>Digging deeper, political commentators have offered several interpretations, claiming that the midterms came down to some core factor, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/abortion-ballot-midterm-elections.html">abortion</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/immigration-midterms-legalization-citizenship-poll/">immigration</a>, the affirmation of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/midterms-reaffirm-the-american-order-information-revolution-constitution-foreign-policy-consensus-russia-china-nato-voting-stability-11668451533">democracy itself</a>, the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/america-has-anti-maga-majority/672047/">repudiation of MAGA Republicanism</a> and elevated <a href="https://time.com/6232272/generation-z-voters-midterm-elections/">turnout among Gen Z voters</a>. </p>
<p>These explanations have their merits. But the diversity of ideas, impulses and dispositions that voters bring to elections makes big-picture election analysis problematic.</p>
<p>Even when a majority claims in a poll that some specific issue is “very important,” it isn’t clear that people agree about anything beyond that description. People have different views about what makes an issue important. Similarly, two citizens who vote for the same candidate might not have much else in common. Consider that it’s likely that voters who “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/2024-answers-look-voters-who-somewhat-disapprove-biden-n1300743">somewhat disapprove</a>” of Biden may have tipped many races in the Democrats’ favor.</p>
<p>It’s not that democracy falls short of discerning the people’s will, but rather that there is no collective will to express. There’s only a mess of inputs, a counting procedure and a result. Consequently, the idea that the result of a large-scale election could amount to an “endorsement” or “repudiation” of a candidate’s or party’s agenda is <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/1/15515820/donald-trump-democracy-brexit-2016-election-europe">largely a myth</a>.</p>
<p>This does not mean that midterm results are meaningless. Democracy remains government of, by and for the people. Elections are instruments by which citizens have an equal say in political decision-making. </p>
<p>Although electoral victories cannot plausibly be regarded as an endorsement of the victor’s ideas, elections still play a crucial role in constraining and directing officeholders. In other words, elections serve simply as a popular check on government.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496800/original/file-20221122-24-r0shh7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman dressed in black carries a black purse with 'MAGA' outlined on it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496800/original/file-20221122-24-r0shh7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496800/original/file-20221122-24-r0shh7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496800/original/file-20221122-24-r0shh7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496800/original/file-20221122-24-r0shh7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496800/original/file-20221122-24-r0shh7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496800/original/file-20221122-24-r0shh7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496800/original/file-20221122-24-r0shh7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Party dress: An attendee carries a ‘MAGA’ bag at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., on Nov. 15, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-attendee-carries-a-maga-bag-at-the-mar-a-lago-club-in-news-photo/1244813486?phrase=midterm%20elections%202022&adppopup=true">Alon Skuy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Partisan identity rules</h2>
<p>That still leaves the question of the meaning of the midterms. Here’s my single takeaway: As I’ve argued previously, U.S. democracy today is driven by partisan identity rather than policy. Elections thus are won not by changing the minds of undecided voters, but by mobilizing the party’s base. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/political-polarization-is-about-feelings-not-facts-120397">Political polarization is about feelings, not facts</a>
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<p>Robust data shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.781851">negative emotions</a> like <a href="https://isr.umich.edu/news-events/insights-newsletter/article/anger-motivates-people-to-vote-u-m-study-shows/">anger and resentment</a> are reliably <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/01/white-evangelicals-survey-trump-republicans/">potent motivators</a> of political behavior. Candidates who can stoke the anxieties of the party’s base are favored, while bridge-builders and cooperators are <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-todays-gop-demonstrates-about-the-dangers-of-partisan-conformity-161401">edged out</a>. </p>
<p>These dynamics partly explain the success of MAGA candidates, aligned with former President Donald Trump, in <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/14/politics/primary-elections-maga-gop-what-matters">GOP primaries</a>.<br>
However, the strategy of playing to the base comes with a cost in a general election, especially when voters see the party’s core as a <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/02/no-democrats-and-republicans-arent-equally-anti-democratic.html">significant</a> <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/10/27/why-the-republicans-anti-democracy-turn-has-become-normalised">threat to democracy</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, hoping to placate their MAGA contingent, the mainstream GOP has declined to voice strong opposition to Trump’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/10/07/democracy-on-the-ballot-how-many-election-deniers-are-on-the-ballot-in-november-and-what-is-their-likelihood-of-success/">election lies</a> and <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-more-republicans-arent-outraged-by-jan-6/">appears dismissive</a> of the House Jan. 6 committee’s work. The Republican Party itself hence is associated with MAGA extremism, and this association is a focus of non-Republican voters’ anger and indignation. </p>
<p>The Democrats’ midterm success likely has less to do with President Biden’s agenda and more to do with their willingness to stand up for familiar democratic values.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194010/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert B. Talisse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lots has been said about the 2022 US midterm elections. But a scholar of democracy says there’s really only one conclusion that can be made about how voters behaved.Robert B. Talisse, W. Alton Jones Professor of Philosophy, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1947002022-11-17T17:03:59Z2022-11-17T17:03:59ZSome midterm polls were on-target – but finding which pollsters and poll aggregators to believe can be challenging<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495751/original/file-20221116-24-l5jodd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C5427%2C3588&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A prominent GOP poll said Democratic U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire would lose her re-election bid to a Republican. Hassan won by 9 percentage points.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022NewHampshireSenate/a8681d6dd9ff4d26b121a95fc35f7043/photo?Query=Maggie%20Hassan&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=740&currentItemNo=14">AP Photo/Charles Krupa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pollsters indulged in breezy self-congratulation in the aftermath of the 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-memories-of-embarrassments-still-fresh-election-pollsters-face-big-tests-in-2022-midterm-elections-192700">midterm</a> elections. Pre-election polls, they declared, did well overall in signaling outcomes of high-profile U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.</p>
<p>In an allusion to polling’s stunning misfires of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/">2016</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-polls-in-2020-produced-error-of-unusual-magnitude-expert-panel-finds-without-pinpointing-cause-164759">2020</a>, Joshua Dyck, director of the opinion research center at UMass Lowell, <a href="https://www.salon.com/2022/11/10/midterm-polls-red-trickle-experts/">asserted</a> as the 2022 results became known: “The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.”</p>
<p>Nate Silver, a prominent data journalist and election forecaster, <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1590461764516610048">took to Twitter</a> to proclaim the 2022 midterms were “one of the most accurate years for polling ever.”</p>
<p>Yet, a sense of doubt lingered: While they did not repeat their <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-miscalls-and-landslides-unforeseen-the-exceptional-catalog-of-polling-failure-146959">failures</a> in recent national elections, polls in 2022 were more spotty than spectacular in their accuracy, and performance assessments often depended on which poll was consulted. Or perhaps more precisely, on which polling aggregation site was consulted. <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Poll-Aggregators.aspx">Aggregators</a> typically compile and analyze results reported by a variety of pollsters. They often adjust the composite data to emphasize findings of recently completed surveys or to minimize effects of unusual or “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-handle-an-outlier-poll/">outlier</a>” polls.</p>
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<h2>Misses, near and far</h2>
<p>As compiled by the widely followed <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/">RealClearPolitics</a> site, polls collectively missed the margins of victory by more than 4 percentage points in key 2022 Senate races in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/nh/new-hampshire-senate-bolduc-vs-hassan-7379.html">New Hampshire</a>, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html">Pennsylvania</a> and Washington.</p>
<p>Differences between polling averages and outcomes were especially striking in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire and Washington, where incumbents won easily. In gubernatorial races, deviations from polling averages of 4 percentage points or more figured in the outcomes in <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/az/arizona_governor_lake_vs_hobbs-7842.html">Arizona</a>, Colorado, Florida, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/mi/michigan_governor_dixon_vs_whitmer-7545.html">Michigan</a>, Pennsylvania and <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_michels_vs_evers-7761.html">Wisconsin</a>.</p>
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<p>Forecasts posted at Silver’s <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/">FiveThirtyEight.com</a> diverged from outcomes somewhat less markedly than those of RealClearPolitics — but still anticipated closer Senate races than what transpired in Colorado, New Hampshire and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/">Pennsylvania</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/us/politics/democrats-midterm-elections.html">Expectations</a> that Republicans would score sweeping victories no doubt were buoyed by the <a href="https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1590034788345614342">predictions</a> of RealClearPolitics. It projected that the GOP stood to gain three Senate seats and control the upper house by 53 seats to 47 — an outcome that proved illusory.</p>
<p>While hedged, the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2022-election-forecast/">final, so-called “Deluxe” forecast</a> posted at Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com and updated on Election Day did little to dampen expectations of a GOP wave. The forecast said Republicans had a 59% chance of winning control of the Senate.</p>
<p>“To be blunt,” Silver <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2022-election-forecast/">wrote</a>, “59 percent is enough of an edge that if you offered to let me bet on Republicans at even money, I’d take it.”</p>
<h2>Elections and polling controversies</h2>
<p>To say that polling performance was spotty in 2022 is not to say that election surveys were all off-target. </p>
<p>Far from it. </p>
<p>The final <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-toplines.html">Siena College/New York Times surveys</a>, for example, accurately signaled the direction of Senate races in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.</p>
<p>Even so, as I noted in my book, “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300965/lost-in-a-gallup">Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections</a>, "It is a rare election that does not produce polling controversies of some sort.” And that’s not so surprising, given that polls are conducted by a variety of public entities, some of which have partisan orientations. </p>
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<p>This time, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/05/upshot/polling-averages-midterm-election.html">controversy</a> swirled around Republican-leaning pollsters such as <a href="https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/">Trafalgar Group</a> and the inclusion of those polls in averages compiled by RealClearPolitics. Incorporating such data, <a href="https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-pollsters-got-the-midterms-right">critics claimed</a>, led RealClearPolitics to overstate Republican prospects. The senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, Sean Trende, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/11/17/what_happened_148483.html">disputed</a> such an interpretation as a “theory that doesn’t work well.”</p>
<p><a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/trafalgar-group-founder-robert-cahaly-on-the-2022-midterms.html">Trafalgar</a>, which in 2021 had been rated <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/trafalgar-group/">A-minus</a> for accuracy by FiveThirtyEight.com, saw its surveys <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/trafalgar-group-terrible-polling-2022.html">conspicuously misfire</a> in 2022. In New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race, for example, Trafalgar’s final pre-election poll indicated that Republican Don Bolduc <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/new-hampshire-could-see-general-election-as-bolduc-takes-lead-in-trafalgar-daily-wire-poll">had taken a narrow lead</a>. Bolduc <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2022/state/nh/senate/">lost</a> to incumbent Maggie Hassan by 9 percentage points.</p>
<p>Trafalgar also estimated that Republican Tudor Dixon <a href="https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/MI-Gen-Poll-Report-1107.pdf">held a slim lead</a> at campaign’s end over Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan. Whitmer won by 10.5 points.</p>
<p>Those were no small misses, and Trafalgar’s inaccuracies attracted criticism even from friendly sources. “They were not reliable indicators of what was to come,” <a href="https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/11/after-last-night-41.php">wrote</a> Scott Johnson at the Republican-oriented “Powerline” blog. Trafalgar did not respond to an email seeking comments about its 2022 polling performance.</p>
<p>Polling misses tended to be bipartisan, though. <a href="https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/11/dfp_az_final_midterm_tabs.pdf">Data for Progress</a>, a Democratic-leaning pollster <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/data-for-progress/">graded as a “B”</a> in 2021 by FiveThirtyEight, <a href="https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2022/11/8/final-battleground-polls-arizona-georgia-nevada-new-hampshire-wisconsin-ohio-colorado-north-carolina-florida-and-oregon-polls">estimated closer Senate races</a> than what transpired in Colorado and New Hampshire, and signaled the wrong winners in Arizona and Nevada.</p>
<p>Data for Progress nonetheless seemed eager to assert success for its polls, posting online what appeared to be an <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2444/Webpage_pollsters.pdf?1668776027">incomplete draft of a post-election news release</a> that said it “outperformed the polling averages, and was more accurate than any other pollster” in the midterms. The draft contained several placeholders marked “xx,” indicating where data points were to be inserted. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Advertisement that says 'The Gallup Poll Sets a New Record for Election Accuracy!'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 1940, Gallup crowed about the accuracy of its polling in an ad in the newspaper industry publication Editor & Publisher.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Screenshot, Editor & Publisher, 11/9/1940</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Pollsters not shy about congratulating selves</h2>
<p>So, what can be taken away from polls of the 2022 midterms?</p>
<p>The outcomes confirmed anew that election polling is an uneven and high-risk pursuit, especially at a time when some pollsters are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/24/opinion/frustrated-with-polling-pollsters-are-too.html">experimenting</a> with new methodologies to reach would-be respondents while others are still relying on traditional, telephone-based techniques.</p>
<p>The 2022 outcomes also confirmed a self-congratulatory impulse that is never very distant for practitioners in a field that has known much error and disappointment. </p>
<p>Pollsters are not necessarily shy about boasting if their estimates are reasonably close to election results. This tendency has been apparent intermittently for more than 80 years, since George Gallup placed double-page ads in Editor & Publisher magazine in 1940 and 1944 to proclaim the accuracy of his polls in presidential elections those years.</p>
<p>The midterms also confirmed the news media’s insatiable appetite for poll results. Fresh polling data — much of it produced or commissioned by news outlets themselves — seemed inescapable during the closing days of the 2022 campaign. As they usually do in national elections, polls <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3732986-what-happened-expectations-polls-and-the-red-mirage/">shaped expectations</a> which, in some cases, faded as votes were counted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194700/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polling for the 2022 midterms was more accurate than the dramatically wrong predictions of 2016 and 2020, leading one pollster to boast, ‘The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.’W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1945142022-11-17T04:04:04Z2022-11-17T04:04:04ZNine days from Victorian election, a new poll gives Labor a modest lead; US Republicans win House<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495794/original/file-20221117-24-n3njrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian election will be held in nine days, on November 26. A Redbridge poll for The Herald Sun, conducted October 31 to November 6 from a sample of 1,189, gave Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead. Primary votes had an initial 10.4% undecided. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/14/victorian-election-redbridge-poll-and-upper-house-tickets/">Poll Bludger</a> calculated primary votes using who the undecided were “leaning towards”, resulting in 36.7% Labor, 35.5% Coalition, 13.2% Greens, 8.5% independents and 6.0% others.</p>
<p>This poll was not released until November 14, and was reported on Twitter by Redbridge director <a href="https://twitter.com/KosSamaras/status/1591907371403874305">Kos Samaras</a>.</p>
<p>By 73-15, voters thought the health system was in crisis and Matthew Guy and the Coalition were best to fix the health crisis by 55-24 over Daniel Andrews and Labor. This question is right-skewed; it would be better to ask which party is best for the health system without the first question on a health crisis.</p>
<p>By 65-19, voters agreed with the Coalition’s policy to delay the construction of stage one of the Suburban Rail Loop and divert all funds saved to hospitals and the health system.</p>
<p>This poll was conducted in the first week of November and was already a week past its last fieldwork date when released. The Labor lead is similar to the 54-46 Labor lead in the Victorian Newspoll conducted about the same time, and worse for Labor than in two <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-victorian-polls-have-large-labor-leads-12-days-before-election-us-democrats-hold-senate-at-midterms-194051">polls released last week</a>.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-newspoll-has-labors-lead-down-but-would-still-win-with-three-weeks-until-election-193825">Victorian Newspoll has Labor's lead down, but would still win with three weeks until election</a>
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<h2>Group voting tickets for upper house released</h2>
<p>Owing to Victorian Labor’s failure to even attempt to reform the upper house in their eight years in government, everyone who votes above the line in the upper house will have their preferences decided by their party’s group voting ticket (GVT). All GVTs were released Sunday.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy-190136">How Victorian Labor's failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy</a>
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<p>The only way to avoid GVTs is to vote below the line: only five numbers below the line are required for a formal vote, though you can continue numbering beyond five.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/14/victorian-election-redbridge-poll-and-upper-house-tickets/">Poll Bludger</a> has a detailed analysis of the GVTs. There is a clear ideological split, with left-wing parties assisting other left-wing parties, while right-wing to far-right parties assist the right. In the middle, there are some micro parties who swap preferences with each other and put the biggest parties last (the Glenn Druery approach).</p>
<p>The ideological split in parties’ GVTs makes it more likely that the upper house result will roughly reflect a left-right split within each five-member electorate, although parties that do not deserve to win could still win on GVTs.</p>
<p>In the Redbridge poll above, Labor’s primary vote was 6.2% below what it received in the lower house at the 2018 election. If that swing were replicated in the upper house on Election Day, Labor would likely lose more seats than they would had GVTs been scrapped.</p>
<h2>Federal Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings improve</h2>
<p>In this week’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/15-november-2022">federal Essential</a> poll, conducted in the days before November 15 from a sample of 1,035, 60% approved of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s performance (up two since October) and 27% disapproved (up one), for a net approval of +33, up one point.</p>
<p>By 46-34, respondents thought Australia was heading in the right direction, but were more pessimistic about other countries. The United Kingdom was at 40-33 wrong track, the United States at 49-28 wrong, China at 66-13 wrong and Russia at 79-10 wrong.</p>
<p>Essential’s question on proposed industrial relations laws is left-skewed because it gives arguments in favour of the reforms: “Key aims of this legislation include reducing the gender pay gap, encouraging flexible working arrangements and allowing workers from different companies to collectively negotiate pay rises.” However, there is no argument against the reforms.</p>
<p>By 50-36, respondents thought the outcomes of the COP27 climate conference can make a meaningful difference on climate change. Note “can” not “will”.</p>
<p>By 70-21, respondents thought the government should do more to ensure multinational companies pay their fair share of tax, over the alternative that multinational companes will always find loopholes in the tax system.</p>
<p>On Twitter usage, 62% said they had never used Twitter, 16% several times a month or less, 13% several times a week and 9% every day. On politicians using Twitter, 43% thought it inappropriate for them to use Twitter at all, 41% that they should use Twitter but also other media, and 16% that Twitter is a vital channel.</p>
<h2>Federal Morgan poll: 53.5-46.5 to Labor</h2>
<p>This week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/weekly-update-november-15-2022-victorian-vote-unemployment-inflation-expectations">Morgan federal poll</a> gave Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, unchanged from the previous week but a two-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight. Polling was conducted November 7-13.</p>
<h2>US Republicans win House as Trump announces 2024 campaign</h2>
<p>CNN has <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false">projected Republicans</a> will win 218 of the 435 US House of Representatives seats at the November 8 midterm elections, enough for a majority. Democrats have won 210 and seven seats are still undecided. If undecided contests go to current leaders, Republicans will win the House by 222-213, an exact reversal of Democrats’ 222-213 win at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections">2020 elections</a>.</p>
<p>Republicans currently lead the national House popular vote by 51.2-47.3 according to the <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022">Cook Political Report</a> (a 3.9% margin), while Democrats won it by 50.8-47.7 (a 3.1% margin) in 2020. The current popular vote swing is 7.0% to Republicans, but much of that swing was wasted on seats that were safe for either party, leading to limited seat gains.</p>
<p>Former president Donald Trump announced his 2024 presidential campaign on Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT). Trump has been blamed for Republicans’ underwhelming performance at these midterms. Party nominating contests for president will begin in early 2024, with the general election in November 2024.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-announces-hell-run-for-president-again-as-murdoch-turns-on-him-and-it-could-be-politically-expensive-for-both-194709">Trump announces he'll run for president again as Murdoch turns on him – and it could be politically expensive for both</a>
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<p>While Democrats have already held the Senate, there is one more contest left: the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/senate?election-data-id=2022-SG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false">Georgia Senate runoff</a> on December 6. Democrats will hope that Trump’s announcement will galvanise their voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Latest polls show a narrowing lead for the ALP in the Victorian election, while the upper house voting system continues to attract criticism.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1940512022-11-13T23:24:48Z2022-11-13T23:24:48ZTwo Victorian polls have large Labor leads 12 days before election; US Democrats hold Senate at midterms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494977/original/file-20221113-2705-f1vjkw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian state election will be held in 12 days, on November 26. A <a href="https://www.freshwaterstrategy.com/insights/andrews-labor-slides-but-still-leads-in-latest-afr-fws-victoria-poll">Freshwater poll</a> for The Financial Review, conducted November 3-6 from a sample of 1,012 by online methods, gave Labor a 56-44 lead, from primary votes of 37% Labor, 34% Coalition, 14% Greens and 15% for all Others.</p>
<p>This is the first Freshwater poll of Victoria; a Freshwater poll of <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-retains-large-lead-in-victorian-resolve-poll-four-weeks-from-election-also-leads-in-nsw-192333">New South Wales</a> in October gave Labor a 54-46 lead. Cost of living was regarded as one of the top three issues in Victoria by 74%, well ahead of 48% for health and social care.</p>
<p>Voters were asked whether they had a favourable or unfavourable view of various figures. Victorian Labor was at +10 net favourable, the Liberals at -6, Labor Premier Daniel Andrews at -9 and Liberal leader Matthew Guy at -16. Andrews led as preferred premier over Guy by 40-28.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9108-roy-morgan-survey-on-voting-intention-in-victoria-november-10-2022">Victorian Morgan</a>
SMS poll, conducted November 9-10 from a sample of 1,030, gave Labor a 57-43, a 3.5-point gain for the Coalition since the last SMS poll in August. Primary votes were 40% Labor (down 0.5), 29% Coalition (up 1.5), 11.5% Greens (down 2.5), 4.5% teal independents (down 0.5) and 14.5% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>The Victorian Morgan poll conducted over the month of October by phone and online methods was also released, and this gave Labor a 60.5-39.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since September. So any swing against Labor appears to have started in early November.</p>
<p>Applying the SMS poll’s primary votes to the 2018 election preference flows would give Labor a bigger lead, with analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1590923553632706560">Kevin Bonham</a> estimating 59.5-40.5 to Labor. This poll implies Other preferences are skewing against Labor.</p>
<p>Andrews had a 58.5-41.5 approval rating in this SMS poll, down from 62.5-37.5 in August. But he still had a 65.5-34.5 lead over Guy as better premier, down marginally from 66-34 in August.</p>
<p>A Newspoll last week gave Labor a 54-46 lead. These two polls have Labor further ahead, but there was a swing to the Coalition in Morgan. Labor remains likely to win the election in 12 days.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-newspoll-has-labors-lead-down-but-would-still-win-with-three-weeks-until-election-193825">Victorian Newspoll has Labor's lead down, but would still win with three weeks until election</a>
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<h2>Record 740 candidates to contest lower house and 454 for upper house</h2>
<p>Candidate nominations for the state election closed on Friday, and early voting begins today. ABC election analyst <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/summary-of-candidates-and-parties-contesting-2022-victorian-election/">Antony Green</a> said there will be 740 total candidates for the 88 lower house seats, an average of 8.4 candidates per seat. </p>
<p>This is the highest average candidates per seat recorded for any Australian state or federal election, beating the average 8.0 per seat at the May federal election. The previous Victorian record was 543 lower house candidates in 2014, an average of 6.2 per seat.</p>
<p>As well as Labor, Coalition and Greens candidates, all seats will be contested by Animal Justice and Family First. The Freedom Party will contest 58 of the 88 seats, Labour DLP 32 and Victorian Socialists 22. There will also be 120 independent candidates.</p>
<p>The Victorian upper house has eight regions that each elect five members for a total of 40. There will be a record of 454 candidates at this election, up from 380 in 2018, and a record 178 groups standing candidates, up from 146 in 2018. The number of groups means all upper house ballot papers will need to be “double decked”, with two rows of party names followed by a line, then candidate lists.</p>
<p>The proliferation of upper house groups is explained by Victoria’s retention of the anti-democratic group voting ticket (GVT) system, under which parties with a very small vote share can win seats if they have the right preference deals. Many parties want a chance to win the upper house lottery.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy-190136">How Victorian Labor's failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy</a>
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<p>In the two polls cited above, Labor’s primary vote was down three to six points on the 2018 election result. If this swing were also applied to the upper house, Labor would likely lose more seats under GVT than they would had GVT been replaced by the system used in the federal Senate.</p>
<h2>US Democrats hold Senate at midterm elections</h2>
<p>In my article on the November 8 United States midterm elections on Wednesday night, Democrats had 48 Senate seats called for them, Republicans 48 and four contests had not been called then.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/democrats-perform-better-than-expected-in-us-midterms-but-both-senate-and-house-remain-in-doubt-194050">Democrats perform better than expected in US midterms, but both Senate and House remain in doubt</a>
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<p>Democrats overturned a Republican lead on late mail counting in <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/senate?admin1=55&election-data-id=2022-SG&selected-election-data-id=2022-SG-WI&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false">Nevada</a>, and now lead by 48.8-48.1, while they lead in Arizona by 51.8-46.1; both states have been called for Democrats. Republicans won Wisconsin by 50.4-49.4, and Georgia will go to a December 6 runoff after no candidate won at least 50%. </p>
<p>Democrats will now hold 50 Senate seats, including two independents who caucus with them, to 49 Republicans. Democrats will control the Senate regardless of the Georgia runoff result because they will have Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. Pennsylvania, a Democratic gain, is the only state where party control has flipped, pending Georgia.</p>
<p>CNN’s <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false">projections</a> currently give Republicans 211 House of Representatives seats to 204 Democrats, with 218 needed for a majority. Republicans <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s-SH7EKOsn9lT32CWak5bYh9mMpkKnyaYGKWAgJVSJY/htmlview?pru=AAABhJKmsLY*t71MCqFuQWe9Nh6mSyynOA#gid=0">currently lead</a> in 221 seats with Democrats ahead in 214, according to a spreadsheet by Daniel Nichanian.</p>
<p>To win the House, Democrats need to overturn four Republican leads. Despite the tenuous seat lead, Republicans are currently leading the overall House popular vote by 4.9% according to the <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022">Cook Political Report</a>.</p>
<p>California is the most populous state with 52 House seats, and has ten of the 20 uncalled races. It will take until December for California to finalise its vote count.</p>
<p>See also my US midterms <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/12/us-midterm-elections-late-counting/">late counting thread</a> for The Poll Bludger, and my <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/08/us-midterm-elections-live/">live blog</a> of the results as they came out from Wednesday AEDT.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194051/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With 12 days to go until the Victorian state election, the Labor government appears headed for re-election.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923332022-10-28T00:38:31Z2022-10-28T00:38:31ZLabor retains large lead in Victorian Resolve poll four weeks from election; also leads in NSW<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492227/original/file-20221028-36426-zx7yn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian state election will be held in four weeks, on November 26. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/voters-turn-on-major-parties-but-labor-retains-election-winning-lead-20221027-p5btf4.html?btis">Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted October 20-24 from a sample of “more than 800”, gave Labor a 59-41 lead over the Coalition. </p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two-party estimate until close to elections, so this is the first Victorian Resolve poll with a two-party estimate. <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1585733252915990528">Analyst Kevin Bonham</a> estimated Labor would lead by 58-42 from the primary votes, a three-point gain for the Coalition since September.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 38% Labor (down four since September), 31% Coalition (up three), 12% Greens (steady), 12% independents (steady) and 6% others (steady). Labor Premier Daniel Andrews led Liberal leader Matthew Guy by 49-29 as preferred premier (46-28 in September).</p>
<p>With just four weeks until the election, the Victorian polls continue to indicate a landslide victory for Labor. But at the last <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Victorian_state_election">election in 2018</a>, Labor won 42.9% in the lower house, so this poll shows a five-point primary vote swing against Labor.</p>
<p>A five-point primary vote swing against Labor in the upper house would be likely to cost them some of the 18 upper house seats they won at the last election, out of 40 total seats, particularly as the upper house still uses the group voting ticket system which Labor has done nothing to reform in the eight years it has held government in Victoria.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy-190136">How Victorian Labor's failure on upper house electoral reform undermines democracy</a>
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<h2>Victorian Morgan poll: 60-40 to Labor</h2>
<p>A Victorian <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/alp-increases-its-large-election-winning-lead-over-the-liberal-national-coalition-in-victoria-in-september-alp-60-cf-l-np-40">Morgan state poll</a>, conducted during September from a sample of 1,379, gave Labor a 60-40 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since August. Primary votes were 42% Labor (up 5.5), 28% Coalition (down one), 14.5% Greens (up 0.5) and 15.5% for all Others (down five).</p>
<p>Voters were asked to specify minor parties from a long list, but only non-teal independents (7%) had more than 2% support. This poll was conducted during September and released October 18, so it is not a recent poll.</p>
<h2>NSW Freshwater poll: 54-46 to Labor</h2>
<p>The New South Wales state election is in March 2023. A Freshwater poll for The Australian Financial Review, conducted October 13-16 from a sample of 1,042, gave Labor a 54-46 lead (52.0-48.0 to the Coalition at the 2019 election). Primary votes were 37% Labor, 36% Coalition, 11% Greens, 1% Shooters, 5% independents and 11% others.</p>
<p>NSW uses optional preferential voting. For the two party estimate, 47% said they would vote for or preference Labor, 40% the Coalition, 8% would not preference either (exhaust) and 6% were undecided. The headline estimate excluded exhaust and undecided.</p>
<p>Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet had a 37% favourable, 35% unfavourable rating, while Labor leader Chris Minns was at 26% favourable, 15% unfavourable. Minns led Perrottet by 41-38 as preferred premier. Poll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/18/freshwater-strategy-54-46-to-labor-in-new-south-wales/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>I have not seen any previous Australian polls by Freshwater, but Newspoll and Resolve both gave NSW Labor large leads in late September, so these results are credible.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-seizes-big-lead-in-two-new-south-wales-polls-six-months-before-election-191065">Labor seizes big lead in two New South Wales polls six months before election</a>
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<h2>Federal Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings remain strong</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/18-october-2022">Essential poll</a>, conducted in the days before October 18 from a sample of 1,122, 58% approved of Anthony Albanese’s performance (down one since September) and 26% disapproved (up one), for a net approval of +32.</p>
<p>By 52-48, respondents thought it was never acceptable to break an election promise, over it being acceptable if circumstances change. Asked about Labor’s promise to stick with the Coalition’s changes to the tax system, 53% thought Labor should stick to its promise while 47% thought as the current economic situation is very different to 2019, Labor breaking this promise was understandable.</p>
<p>Some 11% thought they would benefit a great deal from the tax changes, 22% a fair bit, 23% not that much, 10% hardly any and 24% none at all. Voters supported the changes by 29-27.</p>
<h2>Federal Resolve poll on Optus and corruption commission</h2>
<p>I previously covered the <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-labors-honeymoon-continues-in-resolve-poll-can-the-liberals-regain-office-without-those-lefties-191679">federal Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers that gave Labor an estimated 59-41 two party lead. Additional questions on the Optus hack and the proposed corruption commission are covered here. </p>
<p>By 68-11, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-tougher-privacy-rules-penalties-to-protect-personal-data-20221011-p5bowf.html">voters blamed Optus</a> over the federal government for the hack. By 59-12, they thought Optus should be fined many millions of dollars for allowing the hack to occur. By 83-3, they thought Optus should pay for new identity documents to be reissued.</p>
<p>By 70-6, voters agreed a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-divided-on-party-lines-over-public-anti-corruption-hearings-poll-20221011-p5boxr.html?btis">federal integrity commission</a> was needed after being told that all states currently have such bodies. Asked whether more commission hearings should be public, or only public in exceptional circumstances, 51% wanted more public hearings and 27% only in exceptional circumstances.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 54.5-45.5 to Labor, and YouGov Taiwan poll</h2>
<p>In this week’s federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/weekly-update-october-25-2022-consumer-confidence-mortgage-stress-inflation">Morgan poll</a>, Labor led by 54.5-45.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Polling was conducted October 17-23.</p>
<p>A YouGov poll for the US Studies Centre at The University of Sydney, conducted in early September from a sample of 1,068, had 46% agreeing that Australia should send military forces to help the United States defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack, while 25% disagreed.</p>
<p>Similar polls were taken in Japan and the US. In Japan, it was 35-29 in favour of helping the US defend Taiwan. In the US, 33% agreed with sending American troops to defend Taiwan, while 31% disagreed. Poll results were reported in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/25/almost-half-of-australians-support-sending-military-to-help-defend-taiwan-poll-suggests?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">The Guardian</a> on October 25.</p>
<h2>Rishi Sunak is Britain’s new PM, Brazilian election and US nidterms update</h2>
<p>Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak was the only candidate in the Conservative leadership contest to replace Liz Truss as PM to secure the 100 nominations required from Conservative MPs, and was thus elected Britain’s next PM this week; I covered this for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/24/britains-next-pm-and-brazilian-runoff-israeli-and-us-midterm-elections-minus-six-to-16-days/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>After no candidate won a majority in the October 2 first round, the Brazilian presidential election will go to a runoff this Sunday. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election#Second_round">Polls indicate</a> that the leftist challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (called “Lula”) is narrowly ahead of the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.</p>
<p>Republicans have continued to improve in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/">FiveThirtyEight forecasts</a> with 12 days until the November 8 US midterm elections. Democrats are now just a 52% chance to hold the Senate, down from 61% in my October 20 article. Republicans are an 82% favourite to gain the House of Representatives, up from 75%.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/republicans-gain-in-us-midterm-polls-with-three-weeks-until-election-192332">Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192333/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Four weeks out from the Victorian state election, Labor still looks likely to retain government, although with a swing against it.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1895112022-10-21T12:37:41Z2022-10-21T12:37:41ZThe important role played by secretaries of state in administering fair elections is changing – and not in a good way<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490733/original/file-20221019-11-kgeyrb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=19%2C6%2C4300%2C2868&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Arizona Secretary of State GOP candidate Mark Finchem, who has denied the 2020 election results and was present at the U.S. Capitol insurrection.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022ArizonaSecretaryofState/e18cc67a58874e038fa75b3bb29406fb/photo?Query=secretary%20of%20state%20candidate%20&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2748&currentItemNo=48">AP Photo/Matt York</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The state officials who administer fair, accessible and secure elections have historically operated quietly without garnering much public attention. Elections happen, votes are counted, the winners are declared and democracy moves on. </p>
<p>But since 2020, secretaries of state and other state officials who oversee elections <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-election-nevada-washoe/">have come under increasing scrutiny and been exposed to increasing abuse</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/partisan-or-not-local-election-officials-dont-tilt-elections-in-favor-of-their-partys-candidates-186695">Studies</a> have shown both state Democratic and Republican chief election officials oversee elections with similar partisan outcomes, turnout rates and administrative policies. And despite the fact that most of these officers are selected through explicitly partisan processes, the majority of them behaved in a nonpartisan manner to ensure fair and secure elections.</p>
<p>But given the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/politics-policy/political-parties-polarization/political-polarization/">increasingly polarized and hostile political environment</a> in the U.S., is the country about to experience an Election Day filled with conflict, contested election results and chief election officials who are no longer trusted?</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490739/original/file-20221019-26-lyfy21.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Five people sitting at a table looking out at tv cameras." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490739/original/file-20221019-26-lyfy21.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490739/original/file-20221019-26-lyfy21.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490739/original/file-20221019-26-lyfy21.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490739/original/file-20221019-26-lyfy21.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490739/original/file-20221019-26-lyfy21.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490739/original/file-20221019-26-lyfy21.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490739/original/file-20221019-26-lyfy21.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">GOP Secretary of State candidates Audrey Trujillo, from New Mexico; Kristina Karamo, from Michigan; Mark Finchem, from Arizona; and Jim Marchant, from Nevada at a September 2022 conference on conspiracy theories about voting machines and discredited claims about the 2020 presidential election, held in West Palm Beach, Fla.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022SecretariesofState/bc6cf1d26c2e42a2b4fb485b69ee2ce4/photo?Query=secretary%20of%20state%20candidate&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2748&currentItemNo=74">AP Photo/Jim Rassol</a></span>
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<h2>What they do</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/who-runs-americas-elections-2021-06-11/">The decentralized U.S. election system</a> is run by state and local officials. <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Who_runs_elections_in_the_United_States%3F_(2020)">State chief election officials</a>, the title most often given to the top official in the system, have ultimate authority over elections in the state and oversee voting processes before, during and after an election. </p>
<p>There is a good deal of <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/election-administration-at-state-and-local-levels.aspx">variation</a> on how chief election officers are selected in each of the states. Most are selected through explicitly partisan processes, such as partisan elections or political appointment by a legislature or governor. </p>
<p><iframe id="wA0Fv" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wA0Fv/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Secretary_of_State_(state_executive_office)">responsibilities of these election officials include</a> ensuring state and federal election laws are followed by local officials, implementing state plans to register eligible people to vote and maintaining the state voter registration database. </p>
<p>Additionally, they are responsible for training local officials to run elections and providing a process for testing and certifying voting equipment in the state.</p>
<p>Most of these chief election officers also have <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/election-administration-at-state-and-local-levels.aspx">other important roles</a> in state government. They may be responsible for administering business filings and licensing in a state and enforcing campaign finance regulations. They may also occupy a highly political role, as a successor to the governor. </p>
<h2>How the system works</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/after-the-voting-ends-the-steps-to-complete-an-election.aspx">Election certification</a>, the official tallied results of in-person and absentee votes, has many steps and includes a number of post-election activities. </p>
<p>The first steps of election certification take place on the local level, and then the state level. The U.S. has over <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/election-administration-at-state-and-local-levels.aspx">10,000 local election administration jurisdictions</a>. It is the officials in these local jurisdictions who handle the day-to-day operations of elections where votes are initially counted. </p>
<p>After the polls close, local election officials are responsible for counting ballots. This includes <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-11-receipt-and-postmark-deadlines-for-absentee-ballots.aspx">mail-in and absentee ballots</a>, which in some states can be accepted days after Election Day if postmarked beforehand. </p>
<p>Officials then process provisional ballots. <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/provisional-ballots.aspx">Provisional ballots</a> are those cast by voters who arrive at the polls on Election Day and whose eligibility to vote is uncertain. </p>
<p>Next, officials conduct what’s called a <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/How_and_when_are_election_results_finalized%3F_(2020)">canvass</a>. That’s the tabulating, double-checking and transmitting of the results from the local jurisdiction to the state. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-local-elections-michigan-elections-36d033a3db637c380e054e867f667d11">certification</a> finalizes the results based on the canvass.</p>
<p>While the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/How_and_when_are_election_results_finalized%3F_(2020)">exact procedures</a> vary by state, a state canvassing board, chief election official or a small group that might include the governor and other state officials signs a certificate of election for all the candidates and ballot measures. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490743/original/file-20221019-24-ny811z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a gray and red jacket wearing a baseball cap sits down at a voting station to cast his ballot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490743/original/file-20221019-24-ny811z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490743/original/file-20221019-24-ny811z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490743/original/file-20221019-24-ny811z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490743/original/file-20221019-24-ny811z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490743/original/file-20221019-24-ny811z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490743/original/file-20221019-24-ny811z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490743/original/file-20221019-24-ny811z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A man fills out his ballot at an early voting location in Alexandria, Va., Monday, Sept. 26, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022VotingBegins/373de9998b024b5ea3ca4e6cf0a9dba6/photo?Query=voting%20midterm%20election&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=933&currentItemNo=63">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span>
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<h2>Undermining a trusted process</h2>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://search.asu.edu/profile/2408574">scholar of public-sector governance and a former local government</a> official. I believe there are some disturbing signs emerging related to our highly partisan election administration system that could erode the public’s confidence in the neutrality of elections. </p>
<p>In our new book, “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Independent-Voter/Reilly-Salit-Ali/p/book/9781032147338">The Independent Voter</a>,” my co-authors <a href="https://spa.asu.edu/people-isd">Jacqueline Salit</a> and <a href="https://omarhali.wp.uncg.edu/">Omar Ali</a> and I identify a series of vulnerabilities in this partisan system. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/2022/01/05/trust-in-america-do-americans-trust-their-elections/">Overall mistrust</a> in the neutrality of the election process is high, and voters are <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/587896-rampant-distrust-in-american-democracy-persists-in-2022/">losing trust</a> in U.S. elections. <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/bipartisan-principles-for-election-audits/">Claims that the 2020 election was fraudulent</a> have been repeatedly disproved through exhaustive audits, recounts, reports and reviews. Yet despite this fact, consistently about <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/70-percent-republicans-falsely-believe-stolen-election-trump/">70% of Republican voters</a> suspect election fraud. </p>
<p>This has led some states to alter the role of the chief election official. Some states have <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dozen-state-laws-shift-power-elections-partisan-entities/story?id=79408455">passed</a> legislation that has shifted aspects of election administration to partisan bodies such as state legislatures or partisan-dominated election boards. When responsibility for an aspect of an election is changed in this way, it <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dozen-state-laws-shift-power-elections-partisan-entities/story?id=79408455">can intensify partisan gamesmanship</a>, which in turn further erodes public trust.</p>
<p>Further affecting their reputation for neutrality, from 2000 to 2020 almost <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/news/peace_publications/democracy/new-models-keeping-partisans-out-election-admin-013122.pdf">30% of state chief election officers</a> publicly endorsed a candidate running in a race under their supervision. </p>
<p>Additionally, in the upcoming 2022 midterms, chief election officer candidates in three swing states – Arizona, Michigan and Nevada – are running as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/03/us/politics/gop-election-deniers-trump-arizona-michigan.html">election deniers</a>. </p>
<p>Their platforms include eliminating mail voting, ballot drop boxes and even the use of electronic voting machines while giving power to partisan election observers and expanding their roles. <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Arguments_for_and_against_no-excuse_absentee/mail-in_voting">Voting by mail</a> makes voting more accessible to large groups of individuals and reduces the cost of elections. Eliminating the practice can make it harder for certain groups of people to vote. Expanding the role of <a href="https://wp0.vanderbilt.edu/lawreview/wp-content/uploads/sites/278/2022/03/Uyeda.pdf">partisan election observers can lead to voting intimidation</a>. </p>
<p>Secretaries of state or chief election officers can’t single-handedly change an election’s results, but they can certainly undermine this system on a number of fronts. </p>
<p>They can <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/election-deniers-secretary-state/">refuse to certify the results of an election</a>, triggering involvement of the governor or courts. They can also allow <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/arizona-election-review.html">multiple audits</a> by internal and external entities of election results and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-election-officials-pressure-campaign/2021/12/22/8a0b0788-5d26-11ec-ae5b-5002292337c7_story.html">foster overall distrust in the election process</a> and its outcomes by making public comments about the election’s results that signal the public shouldn’t trust the outcome of the election.</p>
<h2>Disruption from the outside</h2>
<p>Chief election officers are also being confronted with <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/heeding-steve-bannons-call-election-deniers-organize-to-seize-control-of-the-gop-and-reshape-americas-elections">extreme partisan groups</a> seeking to disrupt and exploit the system of election administration before, during and after election. This includes <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/09/28/the-legal-fight-awaiting-us-after-the-election">endless post-election challenges</a> to the veracity of election results.</p>
<p>During elections, problems can be expected as extreme partisan groups have moved to <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/heeding-steve-bannons-call-election-deniers-organize-to-seize-control-of-the-gop-and-reshape-americas-elections">assign supporters, poll workers and observers</a> to disrupt voting centers, tamper with equipment or call voting procedures into question, as Trump loyalist Steve Bannon has encouraged. And even before Election Day, chief election officials are seeing a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/09/11/trump-election-deniers-voting/">coordinated campaign of requests</a> for 2020 voting records, in some cases paralyzing preparations for the midterm election season.</p>
<p>The changing nature, role and perception of state chief election officials is damaging their ability to administer fair elections. The end result: Democracy is weakened in the U.S.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189511/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thom Reilly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What happens if the public loses faith in fair elections? That’s the question being asked as candidates influenced by Donald Trump aim to become the chief election officials in their states.Thom Reilly, Professor & Co-Director, Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy, School of Public Affairs, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923322022-10-20T00:53:17Z2022-10-20T00:53:17ZRepublicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490766/original/file-20221020-14-3hzq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Reynolds/EPA/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in 2020, and hold the Senate on a 50-50 tie with Vice President Kamala Harris’s casting vote.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-democrats-gains-stall-six-weeks-before-midterm-elections-uk-labour-seizes-huge-lead-after-budget-191068">US Democrats' gains stall six weeks before midterm elections; UK Labour seizes huge lead after budget</a>
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<p>The <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/">FiveThirtyEight forecasts</a> currently give Democrats a 61% chance to hold the Senate, but Republicans have a 75% chance to gain control of the House. There’s a 38% chance for Republicans to win both chambers, a 37% chance of Democrats holding the Senate while losing the House, and a 24% chance for Democrats to win both chambers.</p>
<p>Since my last article on the US midterms three weeks ago, Democratic chances of holding the Senate have dropped from 68% to 61%, and Republican chances of gaining the House have increased from 69% to 75%. Democratic chances in the Senate peaked at 71% on September 20.</p>
<p>In the national <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/">House popular vote</a>, Democrats’ lead over Republicans has been cut to just a 45.3-45.0 margin in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate; that 0.3% lead has dropped from 1.3% three weeks ago. President <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">Joe Biden’s ratings</a> have also declined since my last article; he’s currently at 53.2% disapprove, 42.3% approve (net -10.9); his net approval was -10.2 three weeks ago.</p>
<p>Of the 35 senators up for election, 21 are Republicans and 14 Democrats. Democrats will probably gain Pennsylvania, where they lead by five points in the FiveThirtyEight averages. To win the Senate, Republicans would then need to gain Nevada, where they lead by one point, and Georgia, where Democrats lead by four.</p>
<p>In every midterm election since 2006, the non-presidential party has easily won the House. But when the US Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to an abortion in late June, Democrats were galvanised, and they performed well in four federal August byelections, gaining the Alaska at-large seat.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-byelections-suggest-improved-prospects-for-democrats-at-midterms-while-liz-cheney-suffers-huge-loss-189136">US byelections suggest improved prospects for Democrats at midterms, while Liz Cheney suffers huge loss</a>
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<p>However, Democrats may have peaked too early. The economic data on inflation is still poor, and there are worries over whether the <a href="https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/economists-lift-us-cash-rate-forecasts-recession-fears-rattle-bonds-20220928-p5blqv">interest rate rises</a> needed to control inflation will push the US into a recession. </p>
<p>Economic concerns are becoming more important to voters, and this probably explains the Republicans’ recent gains. With nearly three weeks to go, these concerns may lead to further Republican gains.</p>
<p>At the last two presidential elections in 2016 and 2020, polls overstated Democrats. But Donald Trump’s name won’t appear on the ballot paper this year, and polls at the last midterm elections in 2018 were accurate. FiveThirtyEight analyst <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-polls-overestimate-democrats-again/">Nate Silver</a> said on September 16 that the polls at these midterm elections could be wrong in either direction.</p>
<p>If the polls are understating Republicans again, election night will be ugly for Democrats and Biden.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-united-states-is-gearing-up-for-midterm-elections-what-are-they-and-whats-at-stake-190661">The United States is gearing up for midterm elections. What are they and what's at stake?</a>
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<h2>Economic data: jobs and inflation</h2>
<p>The US <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">September jobs report</a> was released on October 7. There were 263,000 jobs created, and the unemployment rate dropped 0.2% to 3.5%, reversing a 0.2% increase in August. However, the unemployment drop occurred mostly due to a 0.1% drop in participation. The employment population ratio – the share of eligible Americans employed – was unchanged at 60.1%.</p>
<p>Both the employment population ratio and participation rate are 1.1% below their levels before the COVID pandemic began in February 2020. The October jobs report will be released November 4, four days before the election.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">September inflation report</a> was released October 13, and will be the last inflation report before the election. Headline inflation was up 0.4% after a 0.1% increase in August, but inflation excluding food and energy (“core” inflation) was up 0.6%, the same increase as in August.</p>
<p>Since June’s 1.3% increase in headline inflation, this measure has only increased 0.5% in the last three months. But this is due to a fall in energy prices, and central banks are far more concerned about core inflation when setting interest rates.</p>
<p>Real (inflation-adjusted) <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.t01.htm">earnings dropped</a> 0.1% in September after a 0.2% gain in August. In the 12 months to September, real earnings were down 3.0% in hourly pay and 3.8% in weekly pay.</p>
<h2>UK polling after Liz Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng</h2>
<p>Three weeks after the September 23 United Kingdom “horror” budget, Prime Minister Liz <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/kwasi-kwarteng-sacked-as-chancellor-after-mini-budget-turmoil-sky-news-understands-12719407">Truss sacked Chancellor</a> Kwasi Kwarteng on October 14. She also announced a U-turn on budget proposals to not proceed with a corporations tax hike from 19% to 25% next April. </p>
<p>New Chancellor Jeremy Hunt <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/17/new-chancellor-shreds-pms-economic-plans-in-unprecedented-u-turn">announced on Monday</a> the government would abandon the September 23 budget.</p>
<p>A UK national <a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-16-october-2022/">Redfield & Wilton</a> poll taken Sunday gave Labour its biggest lead in any recent poll, a 36-point lead (56% to 20% over the Conservatives). Truss’ net approval was at a dire -61, with 70% disapproving and just 9% approving.</p>
<p><strong>Update Friday</strong>: Overnight AEDT, Liz Truss resigned as PM. The next Conservative leader and PM will be decided by a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/20/tory-leadership-contest-what-happens-next-liz-truss-resigns?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">fast-tracked process</a>. Candidates will need at least 100 Conservative MP nominations by Monday. As there are 356 Conservative MPs in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom">House of Commons</a>, at most three candidates can reach the required nominations.</p>
<p>If only one candidate reaches the 100 nominations, that candidate is elected Conservative leader and PM. If three candidates reach the threshold, there will be a vote of Conservative MPs on Monday to winnow them down to two.</p>
<p>The final two candidates will go to the Conservative membership, which will vote by online methods. This vote will close next Friday October 28, with the result to be declared soon after.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192332/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With less than a month until the US midterms, the economy may play the decisive role in the outcome- and that may be difficult for Biden and the Democrats.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1916792022-10-11T23:57:58Z2022-10-11T23:57:58ZFederal Labor’s honeymoon continues in Resolve poll; can the Liberals regain office without those ‘lefties’?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489286/original/file-20221011-16-u0m2iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-leads-coalition-on-climate-change-economy-new-rpm-data-shows-20221010-p5booh.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted October 5-9 from a sample of 1,604, gave Labor 39% of the primary vote (steady since September), the Coalition 30% (down two), the Greens 12% (up two), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 3% (up one), independents 9% (up one) and others 2% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until close to elections, but using 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 59-41 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the September poll.</p>
<p>On Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 60% thought he was doing a good job and 24% a poor job, for a net approval of +36, unchanged since September. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval was -10, up two points. Albanese led Dutton by 53-18 as preferred PM (53-19 in September).</p>
<p>Labor led the Liberals by 36-30 on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">economic management</a> (33-30 in September). On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 30-20 (31-23 previously).</p>
<p>The polling now is not predictive of the next election that is due by 2025, but for the moment Labor’s honeymoon is continuing.</p>
<h2>Tax and spending questions</h2>
<p>Respondents were told that the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-spending-cuts-over-tax-increases-to-fix-budget-20221010-p5bom1.html">federal budget was in deficit</a>, and that this is needed to maintain current levels of spending, but means the national debt is increasing. 37% thought we should reduce spending to end deficits earlier, 14% increase taxes and 28% live with the debt and deficit levels.</p>
<p>Asked to select the top priority for spending reduction, 33% chose defence, 14% the NDIS, 11% the health system and 4% aged care.</p>
<p>By 38-20, voters supported “delivering on the stage 3 tax cuts in 2024, which would mean everyone earning between $45,000 and $120,000 per year would pay a single 30% income tax rate”. This does not mention high-income earners would benefit most, and so is a skewed question.</p>
<p>By 34-13, voters supported repealing stage three if the government were to increase tax revenue. But increasing the corporate tax rate (61-10 support) and an increased tax on resource companies’ profits (56-9 support) were far more popular.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-seizes-big-lead-in-two-new-south-wales-polls-six-months-before-election-191065">previously covered</a> polling of both the Indigenous Voice to parliament and the republic in the last Resolve poll. The Voice led by 64-36, while the republic trailed by 54-46.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Australia ‘not doing enought’ on climate change drops</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/04-october-2022">Essential poll</a>, conducted in the days before October 4 from a sample of 1,050, 43% thought Australia was not doing enough to address climate change (down four since May), 32% thought we were doing enough (steady), and 13% doing too much (up two). The Coalition was still in government at the May poll.</p>
<p>By 63-21, respondents said they had not been personally affected by the recent Optus data breach. 53% said they were very concerned about scammers being able to steal their identities to access their bank accounts.</p>
<p>By 51-29, respondents supported stronger restrictions on the amount of personal infromation companies can collect, and by 46-27 they supported more restrictions on governments collecting personal information.</p>
<p>Respondents were pessimistic about the future of humanity, with more undecided at longer time intervals. Asked whether life would be better or worse for humanity in ten years, worse led by 42-33. At 100 years, worse led by 39-28. At 1,000 years, worse led by 36-22. At 10,000 years, worse led by 35-20.</p>
<h2>Australia Institute poll: support for axing stage three tax cuts</h2>
<p>Dynata conducted a survey for the left-wing <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Polling-September-2022-Stage-3-WEB-002.pdf">Australia Institute</a> in early September from a sample of 1,409. By 41-22, respondents supported Labor repealing the stage three income tax cuts. 46% said high-income earners would benefit most from these cuts, 18% middle-income earners and just 8% low-income earners.</p>
<p>Respondents were read a brief statement about the stage three tax cuts, and asked which was more important: keeping election promises regardless of changes in economic circumstances, or adapting economic policy to suit changing circumstances even if that means breaking an election promise. By 61-27, respondents supported the latter proposition.</p>
<p>A new poll for <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Polling-October-September-2022-Stage-3-Tax-Cuts.pdf">The Australia Institute</a>, conducted October 4-7 from a sample of 1,003, had support for scrapping the stage three tax cuts up seven from September to 48%, with opposition unchanged at 22%.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 55-45 to Labor</h2>
<p>In last <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/weekly-update-october-4-2022-optus-data-breach-interest-rates-up-0-25-business-confidence">week’s Morgan poll</a>, Labor led by 55-45 from polling conducted September 26 to October 2. This was a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week, and Labor’s best result in this poll since the election.</p>
<h2>Can the Liberals regain government without those ‘lefties’?</h2>
<p>Federal Liberal vice-president Teena McQueen recently told the Australian Conservative Political Action Conference that: “The good thing about the last federal election is a lot of those lefties are gone. We should rejoice in that.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-without-those-lefties-the-liberals-cant-regain-government-191846">View from The Hill: Without those 'lefties' the Liberals can't regain government</a>
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<p>At the May federal election, the seats held by more moderate Liberals in inner metro regions were lost to teal independents. It will be difficult for the Coalition to regain these seats as independents, once established in a seat, are usually re-elected easily.</p>
<p>However, as I said in my article on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-2022-election-results-coalition-routed-in-cities-and-in-western-australia-can-they-recover-in-2025-184755">final results of the election</a>, the Coalition’s best chance to regain government in 2025 is if economic conditions are lousy, and they can win outer metro seats from Labor.</p>
<p>The next election probably depends on the outer metro, not the inner metro. The Coalition can do without its inner city moderates if it wins the rest of Australia by a large enough margin.</p>
<p>There may be a long-term electoral problem for the Coalition: Australia’s population is far more concentrated in cities than either the United States or the United Kingdom. I argued before the election that this urban concentration helps Labor, and the election results validated this argument.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-a-continuing-education-divide-eventually-favour-labor-electorally-due-to-our-big-cities-180970">Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities?</a>
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<h2>Polls understated Bolsonaro at Brazilian election</h2>
<p>I covered the October 2 first round of the Brazilian presidential election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/02/brazilian-first-round-presidential-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. The leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (called “Lula”), who was president from 2003 to 2010, led the far-right inucmbent Jair Bolsonaro by a 48.4-43.2 margin. But as nobody won over 50%, it goes to an October 30 runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro. Pre-election polls understated Bolsonaro’s support.</p>
<p>I wrote about the November 8 US midterm elections on September 30, at which Democratic gains have recently stalled. Meanwhile, UK Labour has seized a huge poll lead after a “horror” budget was delivered by the Conservatives on September 23.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-democrats-gains-stall-six-weeks-before-midterm-elections-uk-labour-seizes-huge-lead-after-budget-191068">US Democrats' gains stall six weeks before midterm elections; UK Labour seizes huge lead after budget</a>
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<p>Dire polling has continued for the Conservatives: in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">eight UK national polls</a> taken since October 5, Labour has led by 21 to 32 points.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191679/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Latest polls continue to show strong support for the Albanese government.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1910652022-09-27T02:08:47Z2022-09-27T02:08:47ZLabor seizes big lead in two New South Wales polls six months before election<p>The New South Wales state election will be held in six months, in March 2023. A Newspoll, conducted September 19-22 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 54-46 lead (it was 52.0-48.0 to the Coalition at the March 2019 election). Primary votes were 40% Labor (33.3% at the last election), 35% Coalition (41.6%), 12% Greens (9.6%) and 13% for all others (15.5%).</p>
<p>NSW Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet had ratings of 47% satisfied, 41% dissatisfied, while Labor leader Chris Minns was at 42% satisfied, 27% dissatisfied. Perrottet led by 39-35 as better premier. Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/24/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-new-south-wales/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-secures-election-winning-lead-as-voters-abandon-the-coalition-20220923-p5bkg4.html">NSW Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of 1,170, gave Labor 43% of the primary vote (up nine since February), the Coalition 30% (down seven), the Greens 10% (up two), the Shooters 2% (steady), independents 10% (down three) and others 5% (down one).</p>
<p>Two party estimates aren’t given by Resolve until near elections, but with a 13-point primary vote lead over the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, Labor is in a dominant position in this poll. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/24/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-new-south-wales/">Poll Bludger estimated</a> a 60-40 Labor two party margin.</p>
<p>Despite the blowout lead for Labor, the preferred premier measure was tied at 28% each between Perrottet and Minns (32-29 to Minns in February).</p>
<p>Independent support was at 10% in the NSW poll and 12% in the Victorian Resolve poll below. These figures are very likely to be too high, as Resolve is currently asking for an independent in all seats. Once candidate nominations for the election close, Resolve will only ask for independents in seats where a viable independent is contesting.</p>
<p>These two polls are the best results for NSW Labor since they won the 2007 state election. There has been a large swing to Labor since the previous Resolve poll in February, probably somewhat owing to the scandals around former Nationals leader John Barilaro.</p>
<p>The Resolve poll is likely to be a Labor-favouring outlier, but Newspoll also has Labor well ahead. Labor has made large gains in NSW polls since early this year.</p>
<p>I would expect the federal Labor government to drag down state Labor parties, but this isn’t happening so far. Federal Labor is still at “honeymoon” poll ratings, while the NSW Coalition government is nearly 12 years old.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor way ahead</h2>
<p>The Victorian election is on November 26. Primary votes in a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-heading-for-danslide-2-as-voters-turn-away-from-guy-s-liberals-20220921-p5bjrc.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Age were 42% Labor (up five since April), 28% Coalition (down five), 12% Greens (up two), 12% independents (up one) and 6% others (down three).</p>
<p>Two party estimates aren’t given by Resolve until closer to elections, but with a 14-point primary vote lead over the Coalition and 12% for the Greens, Labor is in a dominant position in this poll. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/23/resolve-strategic-labor-42-coalition-28-greens-12-in-victoria/">Poll Bludger’s estimated</a> two party was 60-40 to Labor.</p>
<p>Incumbent Labor Premier Daniel Andrews led the Liberals’ Matthew Guy by 46-28 as preferred premier (48-31 in April). This poll would have been conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of about 1,100.</p>
<p>The Poll Bludger said Labor was down one point on the 2018 lower house result on primary votes in this Resolve poll, while the Coalition was down seven. If this result were to be applied to the upper house, it would likely be a disaster for the Coalition under group voting tickets, as they would win few seats on filled quotas, and be vulnerable to preference snowballs.</p>
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<h2>Republic support slumps in federal Resolve poll, but Indigenous Voice has 64% support</h2>
<p>In the federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that I <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-labors-lead-in-resolve-poll-drops-from-honeymoon-heights-labor-winning-easily-in-victoria-190415">covered previously</a>, support for <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/support-for-australian-republic-drops-following-death-of-queen-elizabeth-ii-20220920-p5bjgj.html">Australia becoming a republic</a> slumped from 54-46 in favour in January, to 54-46 opposed. This was a forced choice question.</p>
<p>On whether to hold a referendum on becoming a republic, 32% wanted to wait until after further consideration of King Charles III, 30% didn’t want a vote at all, and 21% wanted a vote as soon as possible.</p>
<p>Queen Elizabeth II was rated good by 75% and poor by just 5%.</p>
<p>For his three years as governor-general, David Hurley was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%. About 45% thought Charles III would perform well, and 14% badly.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-labors-lead-in-resolve-poll-drops-from-honeymoon-heights-labor-winning-easily-in-victoria-190415">Federal Labor's lead in Resolve poll drops from 'honeymoon' heights; Labor winning easily in Victoria</a>
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<p>In a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-the-voice-but-there-s-doubt-over-what-they-re-backing-20220923-p5bklx.html">proposed referendum</a> on establishing an Indigenous Voice to parliament, voters would support it by a 64-36 margin nationally. This result was based on both the August and September Resolve polls for a combined sample of 3,618.</p>
<p>This was done to have sizeable samples for each state, since a successful referendum requires majorities in four of the six states as well as overall. Support for the Voice was lowest in Queensland (59-41 in favour).</p>
<p>About 45% thought the Voice should take priority over the republic, while 27% thought the republic should be prioritised. And 24% said the Voice should only be about issues relating to Indigenous Australians, 26% about all issues and policy areas, and 22% didn’t support a Voice.</p>
<p>Around 75% said they were aware of the campaign for an Indigenous Voice. By 43-33, voters thought it unlikely the Voice would close the gap on issues such as health.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: federal Labor leads by 54.5-45.5</h2>
<p>In last week’s Morgan <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9119-weekly-update-20-september-22">weekly update video</a>, federal Labor led by 54.5-45.5 from polling conducted September 12-18, a one point gain for Labor since the previous week.</p>
<p>This is Labor’s biggest lead in Morgan since the federal election.</p>
<h2>Far-right wins Italian election</h2>
<p>I covered Sunday’s Italian election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/25/italian-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. The right coalition easily won majorities in both houses of the Italian parliament. Within that coalition, two far-right parties dominated. Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the Brothers of Italy, will be Italy’s first woman prime minister and first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini.</p>
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<p>The article also covers next Sunday’s first round of the Brazilian presidential election, which the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is expected to lose to former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or “Lula”. If nobody wins at least 50% next Sunday, there will be an October 30 runoff.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A recent NSW Resolve poll gave Labor 43% of the primary vote, and the Coalition just 30%, though the major party leaders were tied for preferred premier.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1904152022-09-20T06:26:58Z2022-09-20T06:26:58ZFederal Labor’s lead in Resolve poll drops from ‘honeymoon’ heights; Labor winning easily in Victoria<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485499/original/file-20220920-17-2euzzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-primary-vote-has-slipped-but-it-continues-to-hold-a-significant-lead-over-the-coalition-new-polling-reveals-20220919-p5bjai.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted September 14-18 from a sample of 1,607, gave federal Labor 39% of the primary vote (down three since August), the Coalition 32% (up four), the Greens 10% (down two), One Nation 6% (up one), UAP 2% (steady), independents 8% (steady) and others 3% (steady).</p>
<p>Apart from near elections, Resolve does not give a two party estimate. My calculations from 2022 election preference flows say Labor would lead by 57-43 on this poll, a four-point gain for the Coalition since August.</p>
<p>60% thought Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was doing a good job, and 24% a poor job for a net approval of +35, down four points. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -12. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 53-19 (55-17 in August).</p>
<p>Labor’s lead over the Liberals on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">economic management</a> was reduced to 33-30 from 39-30 in August, and their lead on keeping the cost of living low fell to 31-23 from 39-21.</p>
<p>I believe the August Resolve poll that gave Labor an estimated 61-39 lead was an outlier. The two Newspolls we have had so far, in early August and <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-extends-big-lead-in-newspoll-but-morgan-is-much-better-for-coalition-189872">early September</a>, have had Labor ahead by 56-44 and 57-43. Labor is still in “honeymoon” polling territory, but no other poll has given them the massive lead the last Resolve poll did.</p>
<h2>Morgan and Essential on the republic</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/a-resounding-majority-of-australians-want-to-retain-the-monarchy-rather-than-become-a-republic">Morgan SMS poll</a>, conducted September 12 from a sample of 1,012, had 60% who thought Australia should remain a monarchy (up five since November 2012), while 40% wanted Australia to become a republic with an elected president (down five).</p>
<p>An <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/20-september-2022">Essential poll</a>, conducted in the days before September 20 from a sample of 1,075, had 43% supporting Australia becoming a republic (down one since June) and 37% opposed (up three). This did not mention the monarchy as the alternative.</p>
<p>Four weeks ago, Essential asked voters to give a rating from 0 to 10 on various leaders. Ratings of 0-3 were classed as negative, 4-6 as neutral and 7-10 as positive. Albanese had a 46% positive, 17% negative rating (43-23 previously), while Dutton was at 33% negative, 23% positive (34-26 previously).</p>
<p>US President Joe Biden was at 30% positive, 28% negative, while Russian President Vladimir Putin was at 77% negative, 9% positive.</p>
<p>Members of the royal family were assessed, with Queen Elizabeth II at 71% positive, 8% negative, Prince William at 64% positive, 10% negative, King Charles III at 44% positive, 21% negative and Prince Harry at 42% postive, 22% negative. The country was split 50-50 on whether Charles should be our head of state.</p>
<p>23% said they were very interested in the queen’s passing and the king’s accession, 35% fairly interested, 25% not that interested and 17% not interested at all. 48% thought the media coverage had given them more information than they needed, 42% about the right amount and 10% less information than needed.</p>
<p>61% supported declaring a public holiday to honour the queen, 60% Albanese attending the funeral and 38% suspending federal parliament.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and climate change bill passes parliament</h2>
<p>In last week’s Morgan <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9109-weekly-update-13-september-22">weekly update video</a>, federal Labor led by 53.5-46.5 from polling conducted September 5-11. This lead was unchanged from the previous week, but a 1.5-point gain for Labor since late August.</p>
<p>Labor’s bill to set a 43% emissions reduction target by 2030 passed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/08/australian-parliament-passes-first-climate-change-legislation-in-a-decade?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">federal parliament</a> on September 8. It was passed by the Senate with minor amendments by 37 votes to 30, with support from the Greens, the Jacqui Lambie Network and David Pocock. The amendments were then approved by the House of Representatives.</p>
<h2>Victorian Essential and Morgan polls: Labor would easily win</h2>
<p>The Victorian election will be held on November 26. An <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/11/guardian-essential-poll-daniel-andrews-in-strong-position-for-labor-victory-in-victorian-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">Essential poll</a> for The Guardian, conducted August 31 to September 7 from a sample of 536, gave Labor 35.3% of the primary vote, the Coalition 32.2%, the Greens 10.2%, independents 8% and undecided 11.9%.</p>
<p>If undecided are excluded, the primary votes become 40.1% Labor, 36.5% Coalition, 11.6% Greens and 9.1% independents. With Labor ahead of the Coalition on primary votes and a solid Greens vote, Labor would win easily after preferences.</p>
<p>The linked article says Opposition Leader Matthew Guy’s pledge to shelve the Suburban Rail Link appears to be resonating with voters. But by 44-25, voters supported construction beginning on stage one of the proposed 90 kilometre underground railway line.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9048-roy-morgan-survey-on-voting-intention-in-victoria-september-13-2022">Victorian Morgan poll</a>, conducted in August from a sample of 1,407, gave Labor a 58-42 lead, from primary votes of 36.5% Labor, 29% Coalition, 14% Greens and 20.5% for all Others. Unlike the SMS Victorian Morgan polls that have previously been released, this poll was conducted using telephone and online methods.</p>
<p>Many other parties were listed, but none got more than 2%. The highest polling Others were other parties (7.5%) and non-teal independents (5.5%).</p>
<h2>NSW Essential poll: it’s close</h2>
<p>The New South Wales election is in March 2023. An Essential poll for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/12/nsw-coalition-down-but-not-out-as-poll-shows-hung-parliament-a-strong-possibility?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">The Guardian</a>, conducted August 31 to September 7 from a sample of 661, gave the Coalition 36.4% of the primary vote, Labor 32%, the Greens 8.5%, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/08/guardian-essential-poll-64-of-young-voters-would-consider-backing-independents-in-nsw-and-victorian-elections">independents</a> 6.8% and 12.8% undecided.</p>
<p>If undecided are excluded, primary votes become 41.7% Coalition, 36.7% Labor, 9.7% Greens and 7.8% independents. Analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1569121944628523009">Kevin Bonham</a> estimated a 50-50 tie from these primary votes.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian and WA byelection results</h2>
<p>A byelection occurred September 10 in the Tasmanian Labor-held upper house seat of <a href="https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/legislative-council/legislative-council-byelection-2022/results/pembroke/index.html">Pembroke</a>. Labor defeated the Liberals by 63.3-36.7 after preferences, a 4.6% <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/09/legislative-council-2022-pembroke-by.html">swing to Labor</a> since the 2019 Pembroke contest. </p>
<p>Labor won 39.5% of the primary vote, the Liberals 28.8%, the Greens 19.3%, an independent 9.3% and the Shooters 3.2%. The result means Labor and four left-aligned independents retain an 8-7 majority in the Tasmanian upper house.</p>
<p>At last Saturday’s byelection for the Western Australian Nationals-held seat of North West Central, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-north-west-central-by-election-2022/results">Nationals defeated the Liberals</a> by a 59.7-40.3 margin, after holding by 51.7-48.3 against Labor at the 2021 election. Primary votes were 40.2% Nationals (up 0.5%), 26.7% Liberals (up 18.8%), 12.6% Greens (up 8.5%) and 5.4% Legalise Cannabis. </p>
<p>Labor did not contest despite coming close at the massive March 2021 Labor landslide. Labor holds 53 of the 59 WA lower house seats, with the Nationals retaining four and the Liberals two.</p>
<h2>Italian and Brazilian elections</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/18/italian-and-brazilian-first-round-elections-minus-one-to-two-weeks/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Sunday that the far-right is likely to win this Sunday’s Italian election. The first round of the Brazilian presidential election is October 2, with a runoff October 30 if nobody wins a majority. Far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is likely to lose to the former leftist president.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While there is some tapering off of support for the Albanese government since the 2022 election, it is still comfortably ahead of the Coalition.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1898722022-09-06T01:01:00Z2022-09-06T01:01:00ZLabor extends big lead in Newspoll, but Morgan is much better for Coalition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482868/original/file-20220906-14-7vssy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s Newspoll is the second since the May federal election, after the first appeared <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-newspoll-since-election-gives-albanese-honeymoon-ratings-australias-poor-success-rate-at-referendums-187690">five weeks ago</a>. Labor led by 57-43, a one point gain for Labor. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 31% Coalition (down two), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady) and 10% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>61% were satisfied with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s performance (steady) while 29% were dissatisfied (up three), for a net approval of +32, down three points. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 61-22 (59-25 five weeks ago).</p>
<p>This poll was conducted August 31 to September 3 from a sample of 1,505. Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/04/newspoll-57-43-to-labor-open-thread/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>The drop in Dutton’s ratings and the increase in Labor’s lead may be due to the revelations of former Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s secret ministries.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1566392037116485632">Kevin Bonham</a> said this Newspoll was the biggest lead for either side since February 2015 after Tony Abbott’s Prince Philip knighthood. But honeymoon polling is not predictive of the next election.</p>
<p>However, Bonham said Victorian Labor will want federal Labor’s honeymoon to continue until the Victorian state election on November 26. A popular federal government will reduce the federal drag on the same state political parties.</p>
<h2>Morgan: 52-48 to Labor</h2>
<p>Morgan continues to show the Coalition doing much better than other polls. Their weekly <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9079-weekly-update-30-august-22-202208300747">update video</a>, for polling conducted August 22-28, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 39.5% Coalition (up one), 36% Labor (down 1.5), 10.5% Greens (down one) and 4% One Nation (up 1.5).</p>
<p>Morgan has usually been the best poll for Labor, but now it is easily the Coalition’s best poll. Will this skew to the Coalition in Morgan relative to other polls continue?</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9046-gallup-international-economic-security-ratings-august-2022-202209010449">Morgan poll</a> taken in late August from a sample of 1,240, had 61% preferring to partner with the US for security issues, with the European Union on 22% and the UK on 14%. On preferred economic partner, 43% selected the EU, 25% the US and 22% the UK.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings rebound</h2>
<p>In an <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/06-september-2022">Essential poll</a>, conducted in the days before September 6 from a sample of 1,070, 59% approved of Albanese’s performance (up four since August), and 25% disapproved (down three), for a net approval of +34, up seven points. Albanese’s ratings had fallen from a high June peak in July and August.</p>
<p>Regarding Morrison’s secret ministries, by 51-25 respondents thought he should resign from federal parliament, and by 59-18 they thought he should appear at an inquiry into the issue. A federal ICAC was supported by 76-15 (78-11 in October 2021).</p>
<p>Respondents were asked whether they trusted various institutions. The most trusted was scientific bodies like CSIRO (71% at least some trust, 23% little or no trust). State health authorities were trusted by 62-33. Politicians were the least trusted, with state parliaments at 48-47 trust and the federal parliament at 48-46 not trusted.</p>
<p>Trust in health authorities peaked at 70% in May 2021, but declined to 59% by June this year. It has now rebounded a little to 62%. Federal parliament’s trust has continued to decline from 55% in August 2020. The beginning of the COVID pandemic explains the high trust ratings in 2020.</p>
<h2>Additional Resolve federal and NSW questions</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/31/polls-jws-research-sec-newgate-and-more-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported August 31 that additional questions from the federal Resolve poll I <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-resolve-poll-since-election-has-huge-labor-lead-and-labor-also-has-massive-lead-in-victoria-188587">reported August 23</a> had 62% supporting the 43% cut to carbon emissions, including 27% strongly supporting. Opposition was at 19%, including 10% strongly opposed.</p>
<p>In a New South Wales Resolve poll, conducted with the federal survey from a sample of about 500, 56% thought former NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro’s trade commissioner appointment a case of “jobs for the boys”, with only 14% selecting the alternative that Barilaro was a worthy candidate in a fair process. </p>
<p>By 45-27, respondents thought Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet had handled the Barilaro affair badly.</p>
<h2>Liz Truss will be Britain’s next PM</h2>
<p>The result of the UK Conservative postal membership vote was announced Monday, with Liz Truss defeating Rishi Sunak by a 57.4-42.6 margin. Truss will now replace Boris Johnson as UK prime minister after Johnson was forced to resign as Conservative leader in early July, though he remained caretaker PM.</p>
<p>I covered this and some upcoming international elections for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/05/britains-next-pm-announcement-930pm-aest-tonight/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Monday. Far-right Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is likely to be ousted in October by a former left-wing president.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anthony Albanese extends his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister as the government’s ‘honeymoon’ period continues.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1879942022-08-11T01:03:08Z2022-08-11T01:03:08ZUS Democrats gain ground before midterm elections as Kansas voters reject attempt to ban abortion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478619/original/file-20220811-26406-jwchpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shawn Thew/EPA/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On June 24, the US Supreme Court denied a constitutional right to an abortion, overturning its Roe v. Wade decision in 1973. I covered this and two other late June right-wing decisions by the court in an early July article.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-supreme-court-has-become-right-wing-and-do-recent-decisions-give-democrats-hope-at-the-midterms-186281">How the US Supreme Court has become right-wing, and do recent decisions give Democrats hope at the midterms?</a>
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<p>When this article was written, the court was historically unpopular, but so was US President Joe Biden. I thought it unlikely abortion would help the Democrats in the November midterm elections, given Biden’s unpopularity and the high inflation.</p>
<p>But in the last month, Democrats have gained in the national House of Representatives popular vote and in the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecasts. In my July article, Republicans had a 2.0% national lead over Democrats, an 87% chance to win the House and a 55% chance to win the Senate in FiveThirtyEight poll averages and forecasts.</p>
<p>Now <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/">FiveThirtyEight</a> gives Democrats a 60% chance to win the Senate, while Republicans still have an 80% chance to win the House. Democrats have a tiny 0.1% <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/">national lead</a> over Republicans, their first lead since last November.</p>
<p>Biden is <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo">still unpopular</a> with a 55.5% disapproval, 39.8% approval (net -15.7). But Democrats are doing far better than we would expect from Biden’s ratings. </p>
<p>There are still three months to go before the November 8 midterm elections, and Republicans could advance again. But at the moment, abortion appears to be helping Democrats, and recent economic data is likely to also help.</p>
<p>At these elections, all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Democrats won the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections">House in 2020</a> by a 222-213 margin, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections">hold the Senate</a> from a 50-50 tie on Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. Twenty-one Republicans and 14 Democrats are up for election in the Senate.</p>
<p>The Democrats’ biggest triumph occurred at an August 2 referendum in Kansas. Republicans attempted to remove a right to an abortion in the Kansas state constitution by a referendum. In this case, a “no” vote preserved the abortion right, while a “yes” would have scrapped this right.</p>
<p>The “no” side <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/kansas/issue-1">won this referendum</a> by a landslide 59.0-41.0 margin. Kansas is a right-wing state that voted for Donald Trump over Biden at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Kansas">2020 US presidential election</a> by a 56.2-41.5 margin. The swing from the 2020 election to this referedum was 32.7 points to the left.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478621/original/file-20220811-25-is5je2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478621/original/file-20220811-25-is5je2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478621/original/file-20220811-25-is5je2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478621/original/file-20220811-25-is5je2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478621/original/file-20220811-25-is5je2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478621/original/file-20220811-25-is5je2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478621/original/file-20220811-25-is5je2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In Kansas, a referendum to remove the right to abortion was resoundingly defeated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tammy Ljungblad/AP/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Abortion important at midterms due to stripping of rights</h2>
<p>I believe abortion has become important as the large majority of voters would have assumed it was settled law, and the Supreme Court would not reverse its 1973 decision.</p>
<p>Gun control is another issue where Republicans appear extreme, particularly to an international audience. But in this case, gun control advocates are trying to strip people of their “right” to bear arms. The side that thinks their rights are in danger of being stripped, whether that’s guns or abortion, is more motivated.</p>
<p>This July 22 <a href="https://www.vox.com/23271352/rape-and-incest-abortion-exception">Vox article</a> said 13 states now have abortion bans, nine of these without exceptions for rape or incest (Oklahoma is unclear). Nine more states have abortion bans that are currently being held up by state courts, with four including exceptions for rape or incest.</p>
<p>A ten-year-old girl who became <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ohio-man-charged-rape-10-year-old-traveled-indiana-abortion-rcna38103">pregnant from rape</a> in Ohio was forced to have an abortion in Indiana owing to Ohio’s total abortion ban. Indiana has <a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2022/08/05/indiana-abortion-law-passed-final-vote-to-come/65391000007/">now banned abortion</a> from September 15, though with exceptions for rape and incest.</p>
<p>For much of his first year as president, Trump had near his worst ratings in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/">FiveThirtyEight tracker</a>, likely due to his attempts to gut the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). These efforts were supported by Republicans who controlled both chambers of Congress. The <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-gop-effort-repeal-obamacare-fails-n787311">repeal of Obamacare failed</a> by just a 51-49 margin in the Senate.</p>
<p>When Obamacare was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordable_Care_Act">first enacted</a> in March 2010, it likely hindered Democrats at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections">November 2010</a> midterm elections, which Republicans won easily. But the reaction to efforts to gut Obamacare demonstrates the electoral potency of stripping of rights already acquired.</p>
<p>Since 2006, the non-presidential party has won every midterm House election convincingly. Republican George W. Bush was president in 2006, when Democrats won. Democrat Barack Obama was president in both 2010 and 2014, when Republicans won, and Trump was president in 2018, when Democrats won.</p>
<p>By striking down Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court has given Democrats an opportunity to be an opposition party. This could help Democrats retain their Congressional majorities.</p>
<h2>Drop in inflation could help Democrats</h2>
<p>Inflation has been the Democrats’ biggest economic problem this year. But the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.t01.htm">July inflation report</a> (released Wednesday) had headline inflation unchanged, down from a 1.3% increase in June. Real wages increased 0.5% in July after falling 0.9% in June, though they are still down 3.6% in weekly terms for the 12 months to July.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">July jobs report</a> (released August 5), 528,000 jobs were created, and the unemployment rate was just 3.5%. While the unemployment rate has returned to its level in February 2020, prior to the COVID pandemic, the employment population ratio – the percentage of eligible Americans employed – was 60.0% in July, 1.2% below its February 2020 level.</p>
<p>The robust jobs report contradicted the two <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022-advance-estimate">successive quarters</a>
of negative GDP growth in both the March and June quarters that is often used to define a recession. Note that the US annualises its GDP data. In Australia’s quarterly terms, the contraction would be 0.4% in the March quarter and 0.2% in June.</p>
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<h2>Senate passes $US 739 billion health and climate bill</h2>
<p>The US Senate on Sunday <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/07/inflation-reduction-act-senate-democrats-pass?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">passed a USD739 billion</a> bill that prioritises health care and climate change action. This bill was passed 51-50 on Harris’ casting vote with all Democrats in favour and all Republicans opposed. The House is expected to pass it Friday (Saturday AEST), then Biden will sign it into law.</p>
<p>The Senate usually requires a three-fifths majority (60 votes) to pass legislation, but only a simple majority is required for “budget reconciliation”. Not everything qualifies for reconciliation, and one clause of this bill was stripped out as it failed the reconciliation test.</p>
<p>This is a major legislative triumph for Democrats that had seemed unlikely after their most conservative senator, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, had twice rejected earlier versions. Democrats will hope this legislation boosts youth turnout at the midterms.</p>
<h2>FBI raids Trump’s Mar-a-Lago and byelections</h2>
<p>The FBI on Monday <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/09/donald-trump-fbi-raid-documents?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">raided Trump’s Mar-a-Lago</a> estate. While it would be satisfying for the US left if Trump went to prison, I do not think it will be important for the 2024 presidential election. If Trump can’t run, Republicans are almost certain to nominate another very right-wing candidate for president – current <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/06/27/can-ron-desantis-displace-donald-trump-as-the-gops-combatant-in-chief">Florida governor Ron DeSantis</a> would be the favourite.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-fbi-raids-mar-a-lago-donald-trump-reaches-for-unconvincing-historical-parallels-188455">As the FBI raids Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump reaches for unconvincing historical parallels</a>
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<p>Republicans won Tuesday’s <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/minnesota/special-election/us-house-district-1">federal byelection</a> for the Republican-held Minnesota first Congressional District by a 51.0-46.9 margin, but that was down from Trump’s 54.0-43.9 margin over Biden in 2020 in this district (see <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections">Daily Kos elections</a>). Byelections will occur in three more federal seats in the next two weeks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187994/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the landmark Roe v Wade ruling on abortion is having big political ramifications - and favouring the Democrats.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.