tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/quarantine-free-travel-102601/articlesQuarantine-free travel – La Conversation2021-10-21T00:59:42Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1695292021-10-21T00:59:42Z2021-10-21T00:59:42ZAs international students start trickling back, the new year will be crunch time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427164/original/file-20211019-25-xkghjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s looking much more likely that international students will be able to return for the first semester next year, with international travel for Australians opening up from November 1.</p>
<p>From that date, there will be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/15/nsw-to-end-all-quarantine-home-hotel-for-fully-vaccinated-international-arrivals-travel-travellers">no cap on the number</a> of fully vaccinated citizens and permanent residents able to fly into New South Wales. In response to NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/regional-travel-delayed-in-nsw-until-november-20211015-p5907u.html">announcement</a> last Friday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison also <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-kirribilli-nsw-9">confirmed</a> fully vaccinated travellers won’t have to go into quarantine in NSW. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-scraps-home-quarantine-for-returnees-what-are-the-risks-and-what-does-this-mean-for-the-rest-of-australia-170016">NSW scraps home quarantine for returnees. What are the risks, and what does this mean for the rest of Australia?</a>
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<p>This is an important moment in the transition to COVID-normal. One by one other states will follow NSW’s lead. Victoria is likely to be the next cab off the rank.</p>
<p>NSW is keen for inbound travel to resume also for international students and tourists. However, the Commonwealth has adopted a staged approach. As Morrison <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-kirribilli-nsw-9">explained</a> on Friday:</p>
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<p>“In the first instance, it will be for Australians, Australian residents and their families. We’ll see how that goes and then we’ll move to the other priorities, which I’ve already set out as being skilled migration, as well as students to Australia.”</p>
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<p>To date, only small numbers of students have been able to apply for a <a href="https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions">travel exemption</a> to enter the country. They include research students with Australian government funding and medical, dental, nursing or allied health students who will undertake work placements, and secondary school students in years 11 and 12.</p>
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<img alt="Chart showing numbers of students inside and outside Australia in the various education sectors" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427683/original/file-20211021-21-1q6th8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427683/original/file-20211021-21-1q6th8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427683/original/file-20211021-21-1q6th8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427683/original/file-20211021-21-1q6th8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427683/original/file-20211021-21-1q6th8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427683/original/file-20211021-21-1q6th8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427683/original/file-20211021-21-1q6th8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.dese.gov.au/international-education/data-and-research/data-visualisations-set-2">The Conversation. Data: Department of Home Affairs (as of 11 October 2021)</a></span>
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<h2>What are the plans for students?</h2>
<p>Some other students may soon be able to enter under plans for international student arrivals agreed to by the Commonwealth and the relevant state or territory. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-keeps-shelving-plans-to-bring-international-students-back-to-australia-it-owes-them-an-explanation-158778">Numerous pilot plans</a> have been announced and later abandoned over the past year. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-keeps-shelving-plans-to-bring-international-students-back-to-australia-it-owes-them-an-explanation-158778">The government keeps shelving plans to bring international students back to Australia. It owes them an explanation</a>
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<p>Only <a href="https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/international-student-arrival-plans">one plan is currently in place</a>, and it is yet to begin. This plan will allow up to 250 international students studying with NSW education providers to return each fortnight from early December 2021.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/international-student-arrivals-plan">Victoria’s recent proposal</a> will at first allow 120 currently enrolled students nominated by universities to enter the state each week. Numbers are to be expanded to more students and other providers over time.</p>
<p>These proposal require students to quarantine for two weeks, with universities to cover the bulk of the A$5,000 price tag per student. If implemented, these plans would allow for only about 1,500 additional students to arrive in NSW and about 2,100 in Victoria before first semester. But these small-scale plans are likely to be short-lived, and will soon give way to less complicated and costly arrangements for incoming students.</p>
<p>Requiring fully vaccinated international students to quarantine for two weeks makes little sense once fully vaccinated Australians entering from the same countries no longer need to quarantine. International students pose no more risk than returning Australians.</p>
<p>The scale of international student arrivals will grow steadily once borders begin to open. When states and territories reach the 80% double vaccination rate they will open to returning Australians as the priority. It’s likely be expressed as “getting Aussies home for Christmas”. </p>
<p>The next step will be to open up to migrants and international students. With campuses closed over the summer, most international students would be happy to wait to travel in January and February as long as there is certainty that borders will be open and flights will be available.</p>
<h2>How many returning students can we expect?</h2>
<p>The shift away from hotel quarantine removes the major constraint of hotel capacity. The limiting factor on the number of returning students will be the availability of international flights in early 2022.</p>
<p>Currently, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/21/more-than-45000-australians-stranded-overseas-registered-for-government-help">over 45,000 Australians overseas</a> have <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/COVID-19/trying-get-home/COVID-19-registration">registered</a> with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for assistance to return to Australia. About 146,000 international students, across all levels of study, have visas to enter Australia but haven’t been able to enter the country. (Nearly <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/international-education/data-and-research/data-visualisations-set-2">264,000 international students</a> are still in Australia – <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-statistics/statistics/visa-statistics/study">less than half as many</a> as two years ago.) </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-to-halve-international-student-numbers-in-australia-by-mid-2021-its-not-just-unis-that-will-feel-their-loss-148997">COVID to halve international student numbers in Australia by mid-2021 – it's not just unis that will feel their loss</a>
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<p>The majority of the students stuck offshore are in China, for two reasons. Flights from China were stopped early in 2020 before other countries were affected, and Chinese students have been more willing than others to begin their studies online.</p>
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<img alt="Table showing numbers of international students inside and outside Australia by country of origin" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427684/original/file-20211021-21-rlsmrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427684/original/file-20211021-21-rlsmrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427684/original/file-20211021-21-rlsmrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427684/original/file-20211021-21-rlsmrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427684/original/file-20211021-21-rlsmrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427684/original/file-20211021-21-rlsmrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427684/original/file-20211021-21-rlsmrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.dese.gov.au/international-education/data-and-research/data-visualisations-set-2">The Conversation. Data: Department of Home Affairs (as of 11 October 2021)</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-australia-can-get-ahead-in-attracting-and-retaining-chinese-international-students-148444">5 ways Australia can get ahead in attracting and retaining Chinese international students</a>
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<p>We can expect to see a flurry of new students applying as soon as it is clear the border is open to them. And many Australians will be taking advantage of their newfound travel freedom over the summer and will also be wanting return flights.</p>
<h2>So can we manage that many arrivals?</h2>
<p>The big question now is will there be enough inbound flights for all these returning Australians and international students over the summer? In pre-COVID times, this would have been a walk in the park. There were <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/international_airline_activity-time_series">21.3 million international arrivals</a> in Australia in 2019, or around 1.8 million inbound passengers per month.</p>
<p>It will take a long time to reach those numbers again, but the key point is that airlines have ample capacity to allow Australians to travel over the summer and students to arrive on campus in 2022.</p>
<p>Airlines are keen to resume flying, students are keen to get onto campus next semester and our cities are keen to get international students back. International education will play a big part in our recovery in 2022. We are just waiting on governments to commit to a timeline for reopening so we can all start making plans.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-hopes-of-international-students-return-fade-closed-borders-could-cost-20bn-a-year-in-2022-half-the-sectors-value-159328">As hopes of international students' return fade, closed borders could cost $20bn a year in 2022 – half the sector's value</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169529/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Ziguras is past President of the International Education Association of Australia and has had a role as the Association's Research Director.</span></em></p>Events have overtaken state plans for limited numbers of international students to return. With NSW dropping quarantine for fully vaccinated arrivals, flight capacity is the final obstacle.Christopher Ziguras, Professor of Global Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1634882021-06-29T03:00:53Z2021-06-29T03:00:53ZNew Zealand is right to pause travel to Australia. It buys time to upgrade its own COVID-19 response<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408756/original/file-20210628-19-8poj1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C135%2C4959%2C2859&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Lynn Grieveson/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The trans-Tasman travel bubble popped just ten weeks after <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/trans-tasman-bubble-start-19-april">quarantine-free travel started</a>. </p>
<p>The government today announced that the current pause in trans-Tasman travel has been <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/445751/wellington-drops-to-alert-level-1-at-midnight-tasman-travel-pause-extended">extended</a> until at least midnight on Sunday. It will then only lift for South Australia, Australia Capital Territory, Tasmania and Victoria. Travellers will also need to have a pre-departure test within 72 hours of leaving Australia.</p>
<p>The decision follows <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-update-australia-facing-biggest-threat-yet-covid19-spreads-across-country-state-by-state-breakdown/72e6e48d-a0f3-43d0-b575-a56dfe35b844">several COVID-19 outbreaks</a> in Australia. Up to 80% of Australians are now under some form of <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/445674/nsw-records-18-new-covid-19-cases-as-outbreak-reaches-130-infections">restriction or lockdown</a>. </p>
<p>New Zealand has so far managed to avoid an outbreak, with <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/no-community-cases-4-cases-covid-19-managed-isolation-0">no community transmission</a> despite the fact that an Australian visitor spent a weekend in Wellington earlier this month and subsequently <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/no-community-cases-4-cases-covid-19-managed-isolation">tested positive</a> for the delta variant. </p>
<p>While alert levels for the Wellington region will return to level 1 tonight, it will be a <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125573833/covid19-wellington-wont-be-in-the-clear-until-start-of-july-hidden-transmission-chains-still-a-possibility">few weeks</a> before New Zealanders can breathe a sigh of relief. The rapidly changing situation in Australia now poses a <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/additional-requirements-in-trans-tasman-bubble-being-seriously-considered">new and arguably even greater risk</a>. </p>
<p>Several other countries in the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57492961">Asia-Pacific region</a>, which were once COVID-19 success stories, have all seen significant, uncontrolled and rapid surges in cases and hospitalisations. Australia is on the verge of joining this growing list, which includes <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/taiwan">Taiwan</a> and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/fiji">Fiji</a>. </p>
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<img alt="Comparison between COVID-19 case numbers in different countries" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408599/original/file-20210628-21-30pfck.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408599/original/file-20210628-21-30pfck.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408599/original/file-20210628-21-30pfck.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408599/original/file-20210628-21-30pfck.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408599/original/file-20210628-21-30pfck.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408599/original/file-20210628-21-30pfck.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408599/original/file-20210628-21-30pfck.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Our World in Data</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>The risk from Australia</h2>
<p>The situation in Australia is evolving but has several <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/virgin-australia-crew-member-tests-positive-flights-hotel-impacted/c14a8554-804f-47c3-a2f0-6f4101b8bd80">concerning developments</a>. The <a href="https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.24.2100509">highly infectious</a> delta variant has rapidly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/jun/29/covid-australia-update-perth-sydney-darwin-lockdown-support-package-astrazeneca-pfizer-vaccine-gladys-berejiklian-scott-morrison">reached</a> several parts of the country, including areas it <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300343606/covid19-in-australia--the-worst-ive-seen-kiwis-in-darwins-first-lockdown">hasn’t been before</a>. </p>
<p>Australia’s COVID-19 response committee held an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia-idUKKCN2E405C">emergency meeting</a> on Monday in response to the escalating situation. </p>
<p>New South Wales is now the “epicenter”. The outbreak has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/445674/nsw-records-18-new-covid-19-cases-as-outbreak-reaches-130-infections">reached 130 infections</a> and residents are adjusting to life under <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/27/australia/sydney-lockdown-australia-covid-pandemic-intl-cmd/index.html">lockdown</a>. Hundreds of school children are also self-isolating after <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-28/south-coogee-public-chool-covid-cases/100247768">four students tested positive</a> at a primary school. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-sydneys-lockdown-come-too-late-heres-why-its-not-that-simple-163484">Did Sydney's lockdown come too late? Here's why it's not that simple</a>
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<p>In the Northern Territory, a lockdown was <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/darwin-in-lockdown-after-four-covid-19-cases-linked-mine">announced</a> after a mine worker tested positive and Queensland is <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/queensland-lockdown-announced-for-millions-after-covid-community-cases-found-c-3255554">entering a lockdown</a>, with several <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/queensland-lockdown-announced-for-millions-after-covid-community-cases-found-c-3255554">new community cases announced</a> over the past few days and a growing number of <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/contact-tracing">exposed sites</a>. </p>
<p>In Western Australia, Perth and Peel have gone into a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/fears-of-wa-lockdown-mounts-as-premier-mark-mcgowan-gives-late-covid-19-update-20210627-p5852k.html">full lockdown</a> from midnight Monday for at least four days. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/covid-spreads-to-almost-every-state-and-territory-across-australia/f6d37329-aad2-4338-b136-06d1f306ad0f">Victoria</a>, Tasmania and South Australia have no new local COVID-19 cases. However, at least 29 workers from the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-28/sa-health-identifies-workers-from-granites-mine-in-state/100248494">Northern Territory mine </a> are now in South Australia, with tests yet to be completed. </p>
<h2>Refining New Zealand’s response</h2>
<p>New Zealand remains <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-new-zealand-is-more-vulnerable-to-a-new-covid-19-outbreak-than-ever-before-163163">more vulnerable</a> to a new COVID-19 outbreak than ever before, largely due to the emergence of new <a href="https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.24.2100509">highly infectious variants</a>.</p>
<p>In the UK, the delta variant now accounts for <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1596">99% of transmissions</a>. Public health experts in New Zealand have called for an urgent <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/urgently-upgrading-nzs-covid-19-response/#more-14469">upgrade</a> of the country’s alert level system and contact tracing, as well as an acceleration of the vaccine rollout, to <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300341541/covid19-nz-risk-of-taiwanstyle-outbreak-if-delta-variant-takes-hold-expert-warns">prevent future outbreaks</a>. </p>
<p>The Australian outbreaks should add urgency to these calls. Two people have already <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125583876/covid19-two-contacts-of-northern-territory-mine-case-in-isolation-in-new-zealand">travelled to New Zealand</a> who were potentially exposed to an Australian miner with COVID-19. They are in isolation and are being tested.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-did-a-delayed-second-dose-give-the-delta-variant-an-evolutionary-helping-hand-162359">COVID: did a delayed second dose give the delta variant an evolutionary helping hand?</a>
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<p>A <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/06/23/people-in-advanced-economies-say-their-society-is-more-divided-than-before-pandemic/?utm_source=Pew+Research+Center&utm_campaign=eb70cab40f-Weekly_2021_06_26&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3e953b9b70-eb70cab40f-400610541">recent survey</a> found 80% of New Zealanders think the government got restrictions right — more than any other surveyed country. New Zealand has used the “<a href="https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2020/10/22/covid-19-and-the-swiss-cheese-system.html">swiss cheese model</a>”, which applies several layers of barriers and safeguards to protect people from the virus. </p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1703/Covid-19-Cheese-Model-animation-Updated-2021-02-2.gif?1624874125" width="100%"> </p>
<p>Many layers of our COVID-19 defence now <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/urgently-upgrading-nzs-covid-19-response/#more-14469">require an upgrade</a>. Until now, we’ve had a reactive approach to QR scanning, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-new-zealand-is-more-vulnerable-to-a-new-covid-19-outbreak-than-ever-before-163163">low or declining usage</a>. The only increases in QR scanning followed outbreaks or COVID-19 scares. </p>
<p>Yesterday, cabinet commissioned advice on <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300343498/covid19-nz-live-cabinet-has-commissed-advice-around-potentially-making-qr-scanning-compulsory-ardern-says">making QR scanning mandatory</a>. This may have to become part of life, just like checking IDs at a bar. </p>
<p>Cabinet is also looking into <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/compulsory-qr-scanning-masks-in-high-risk-locations-considered-ardern">mandating mask use</a> in more settings at alert level 2 and above. Face coverings may be particularly useful when physical distancing is not possible. </p>
<h2>Bursting the travel bubble</h2>
<p>The current pause is justified. Let us remind ourselves of the devastation caused beyond our <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57224565">borders</a> and how quickly the less transmissible original strain of COVID-19 spread around New Zealand from March 2020 onwards.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1702/Animated_NZ_cases_2803_0804.gif?1624872196" width="100%"> </p>
<p>The new delta variant is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/covid-delta-who-says-variant-is-the-fastest-and-fittest-and-will-pick-off-most-vulnerable-.html">about 60% more transmissible</a> than the alpha strain, which itself was more contagious than the original virus. </p>
<p>Things can change quickly and the current pause has allowed experts the time to assess the <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300341541/covid19-nz-risk-of-taiwanstyle-outbreak-if-delta-variant-takes-hold-expert-warns">risk</a>. It has also bought us valuable time to <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/urgently-upgrading-nzs-covid-19-response/#more-14469">upgrade our response</a> hopefully beyond just requiring <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125575454/covid19-predeparture-testing-likely-for-transtasman-travellers-after-bubble-bursts">pre-departure tests</a> from Australia and treats the risk of a delta variant outbreak <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/nz-would-struggle-to-eliminate-a-delta-outbreak">with the care it deserves</a>. </p>
<p>Based on the uncertain and complex situation emerging across several Australian states, the reopening of the trans-Tasman bubble may remain difficult. The government has made it clear from the start that New Zealand travellers <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300256326/jacinda-ardern-warns-kiwi-travellers-could-get-stuck-when-the-transtasman-bubble-opens">could get stuck</a> in Australia. The data that emerges from Australia over the next few days will be crucial in determining how and when travel can resume safely. </p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p>Dr Lukas Marek, at the <a href="https://www.canterbury.ac.nz/science/research/geohealth/">GeoHealth Laboratory</a>, University of Canterbury, has contributed the data visualisation of New Zealand’s COVID-19 case numbers.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Hobbs receives funding from The Health Research Council. </span></em></p>New Zealand has avoided a COVID-19 outbreak, despite a visit by an Australian traveller with the delta variant. But now is clearly the time to introduce mandatory scanning and mask rules.Matthew Hobbs, Senior Lecturer in Public Health, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1605392021-05-10T02:15:43Z2021-05-10T02:15:43ZFlights have resumed between New Zealand and NSW, but the temporary travel pause may not be the last<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399608/original/file-20210509-21-1btfnw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C408%2C4865%2C2903&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James D. Morgan/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/442211/travel-bubble-we-re-ready-to-reopen-to-nsw-modeller-says">resumed quarantine-free travel</a> with New South Wales today, even though the Australian state’s government has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/442178/nsw-nz-flights-to-resume-despite-longer-covid-19-restrictions">extended restrictions</a> in greater Sydney for another week. </p>
<p>From New Zealand’s perspective, the fact no further community cases have been discovered gives us confidence we’re not overlooking a large hidden outbreak after all. </p>
<p>While a few cases might trickle in over the days ahead, provided these are linked to the cluster, they shouldn’t lead to another pause in travel.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1391518961087356928"}"></div></p>
<p>The ban on quarantine-free travel was <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/quarantine-free-travel-new-south-wales-paused">put in place</a> last week in response to <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/441942/restrictions-for-greater-sydney-after-second-covid-19-case-emerges">two new cases of COVID-19 in Sydney</a>. It was the third time travel has been paused from a specific state, which highlights the challenges in tracking the risk of an outbreak across jurisdictions with different systems in place.</p>
<p>The decision to pause travel with NSW was in line with the <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/fact-sheets/COVID-19-How-a-COVID-19-case-in-Australia-would-be-managed.pdf">plan</a> New Zealand’s government set out when it announced the trans-Tasman bubble. </p>
<p>When a case has no clear link to the border, travel may be paused until we are confident the outbreak has been contained.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Guide for the trans-Tasman bubble" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399411/original/file-20210507-27-2cy4xg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399411/original/file-20210507-27-2cy4xg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399411/original/file-20210507-27-2cy4xg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399411/original/file-20210507-27-2cy4xg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399411/original/file-20210507-27-2cy4xg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399411/original/file-20210507-27-2cy4xg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399411/original/file-20210507-27-2cy4xg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This guide explains what happens if COVID-19 cases are detected in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Red flags</h2>
<p>The first Sydney case had some red flags. Although a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-06/nsw-records-second-positive-covid-case/100119774">genomic link</a> was established with a case in a Sydney quarantine facility, there was no known contact between that person and the community case. This means there is almost certainly a missing link in the chain of transmission. </p>
<p>Additional risk factors include the person’s high viral load, the large number of locations they visited while infectious, and the positive result in sewage testing. Together these opened up the possibility the detected case could have been the tip of a much larger iceberg.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-a-dozen-covid-leaks-in-6-months-to-protect-australians-its-time-to-move-quarantine-out-of-city-hotels-159808">More than a dozen COVID leaks in 6 months: to protect Australians, it's time to move quarantine out of city hotels</a>
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</p>
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<p>As New Zealand’s COVID-19 response minister Chris Hipkins <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/441985/watch-nz-s-quarantine-free-travel-with-new-south-wales-to-be-paused">said</a>, the decision to hit pause was a line call. But, given the unknowns, it was a good decision to buy time for the results of contact-tracing and testing in Sydney to come in. </p>
<p>The Sydney case had higher risk factors than <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/441595/new-covid-19-cases-in-perth-new-zealand-temporarily-pauses-flights-from-wa">recent cases in Perth</a>, which had also prompted a pause to quarantine-free travel. </p>
<h2>Different states, different approaches</h2>
<p>This highlights differences between Australian states’ responses. Western Australia has tended to be more risk-averse, and promptly announced a <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/441595/new-covid-19-cases-in-perth-new-zealand-temporarily-pauses-flights-from-wa">snap lockdown</a> in response to a recent case with a clear link to the border. </p>
<p>NSW seems to have higher tolerance for risk, possibly because of higher confidence that its contact-tracing system can control outbreaks. </p>
<p>The principle of the trans-Tasman bubble is that New Zealand and each Australian state has to make their own decisions about when to close their borders. Once most of New Zealand’s population is vaccinated, the risk from this type of situation will be much smaller, but until then we need to maintain our strategy to keep COVID-19 out of the community.</p>
<p>One of the challenges of the trans-Tasman bubble is that people will move relatively quickly, which means COVID-19 can spread quickly. This makes contact-tracing all the more important, but doing this across borders is not as easy as it might seem. </p>
<h2>Differences in contact tracing</h2>
<p>Health authorities on each side have to share information about active cases, their movements and their contacts, all while respecting privacy regulations on both sides. A “<a href="https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nsw-victoria-and-act-to-link-up-contract-tracing-systems-555867">data exchange</a>” was trialled in three Australian states last year, but doesn’t appear to have been rolled out more broadly yet.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1383893177409544198"}"></div></p>
<p>For Australia and New Zealand, this sharing is a manual exercise because our contact-tracing apps are not compatible with each other due to fundamental design differences. The Bluetooth protocols are different: Australia uses <a href="https://www.dta.gov.au/news/covidsafe-captures-close-contacts-new-herald-protocol">Herald</a>; New Zealand uses the <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-resources-and-tools/nz-covid-tracer-app/getting-started-nz-covid-tracer/bluetooth-tracing">Apple/Google exposure notifications system</a>. And they store data in different places. </p>
<p>Australia’s apps are centralised, with data going to servers controlled by health officials, protected by legislation. New Zealand’s app is decentralised, with data staying on the device until the user tests positive for COVID-19 and voluntarily provides it to contact tracers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="QR code for New Zealand's COVID-10 tracing app." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399610/original/file-20210509-17-sb08z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399610/original/file-20210509-17-sb08z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399610/original/file-20210509-17-sb08z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399610/original/file-20210509-17-sb08z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399610/original/file-20210509-17-sb08z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399610/original/file-20210509-17-sb08z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399610/original/file-20210509-17-sb08z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New Zealand and Australia use different apps for contact tracing, and they are not compatible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendon O'Hagan/Bloomberg via Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These differences mean we can’t easily automate the sharing of data between Australia and New Zealand, and people can’t get automatic alerts across multiple jurisdictions. But this isn’t necessarily a bad thing, because it means human contact-tracers can verify information and decide what is important enough to share. And they can provide context with the data so appropriate actions can be taken. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/closed-borders-travel-bans-and-halted-immigration-5-ways-covid-19-changed-how-and-where-people-move-around-the-world-157040">Closed borders, travel bans and halted immigration: 5 ways COVID-19 changed how – and where – people move around the world</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>This manual approach wouldn’t work as well in countries with high rates of COVID-19 because the sheer number of cases would be impossible to keep up with. But it is effective in countries like New Zealand and Australia, which are committed to stamping out COVID-19.</p>
<p>As we gradually open the borders and more people start to travel internationally, we will need good contact-tracing processes to give us confidence that health officials can quickly contain any outbreaks. While the vaccines are coming, we will all need to remain vigilant for a while longer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160539/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Plank is affiliated with the University of Canterbury and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>I have ongoing discussions with the Ministry of Health about digital contact tracing but have no financial relationship.</span></em></p>The trans-Tasman travel bubble has come to a temporary regional halt three times now, highlighting the challenges in tracking the risk of an outbreak across jurisdictions with different systems.Michael Plank, Professor in Applied Mathematics, University of CanterburyAndrew Chen, Research Fellow at Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1584142021-04-09T03:20:00Z2021-04-09T03:20:00ZVaccination alone will not provide full protection. When borders open, NZ will still be managing COVID-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394144/original/file-20210408-23-xmzjj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3947%2C2372&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ministry of Health</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From next week, unvaccinated staff working at managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) facilities will be <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/440111/covid-19-authorities-unable-to-say-how-many-border-workers-unvaccinated">moved to low-risk jobs</a>, following a case of a worker who missed vaccination appointments and then <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/border-related-case-confirmed-current-case">tested positive</a> for COVID-19. </p>
<p>The recently announced <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/440052/new-zealand-temporarily-suspending-travel-from-india-pm-jacinda-ardern">ban on arrivals from India</a> underscores an important point: even once all border and health staff have been vaccinated, vaccination does not provide 100% protection. </p>
<p>Last month, a MIQ worker tested positive almost a week <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/covid-19-update-23-march-2021">after receiving their second vaccine dose</a>. This case shows that, occasionally, even fully vaccinated people can still carry the virus in their throats and therefore potentially spread it. </p>
<h2>Small risk of infection remains</h2>
<p>Clinical trials of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine show <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577">90-97% efficacy</a> which means most fully vaccinated people will not get sick, and the small number who do are very unlikely to develop serious disease.</p>
<p>The vaccine reduces the ability to contract and pass on the virus, but not always completely. It takes the sting out of COVID-19’s tail, because it particularly reduces its ability to cause serious illness or death. </p>
<p>In last month’s case, the vaccinated worker remained asymptomatic, which likely reduced the spread of the virus to others. The risk of spread is higher from sick people because they have a <a href="https://www.webefit.com/resources/CleaningData/Does%20a%20high%20viral%20load%20or%20infectious%20dose%20make%20covid-19%20worse_%20_%20New%20Scientist.pdf">higher load of the virus</a>, and therefore more to spread, and they are more likely to spread it, particularly with coughing.</p>
<p>Data from use in several countries suggests the vaccine has some effect in reducing an infected person’s <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm">ability to pass the virus on to others</a>, but as this example shows, vaccinated people can still carry and spread the virus, albeit at much lower rates.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People waiting to be vaccinated" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frontline border staff and their families were the first to be vaccinated in New Zealand’s rollout of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ministry of Health</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Herd immunity feasible, but challenging</h2>
<p>The combination of a vaccine’s ability to reduce illness — and therefore spread of the disease — is good news, but it’s not fool proof. Should New Zealand consider opening its borders beyond the current <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/trans-tasman-bubble-start-19-april">travel bubble with Austalia</a> (due to start on April 19), it’s likely this would allow people with COVID-19 into the country. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-quarantine-free-trans-tasman-bubble-opens-on-april-19-but-flyer-beware-remains-the-reality-of-pandemic-travel-158423">A quarantine-free trans-Tasman bubble opens on April 19, but 'flyer beware' remains the reality of pandemic travel</a>
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<p>If the majority of New Zealanders are vaccinated, we can be confident that very few people will get sick. But whether this would be enough to stop spread through the community remains unclear.</p>
<p>New Zealand could aim for herd immunity, which would mean vaccinating enough of the population to stop the virus from spreading, should it enter a community. The ability to stop spread would depend on the proportion of the population that is immune (either following infection or through vaccination), whether immunity is spread evenly across the population, and the infectivity of the virus. </p>
<p>With measles, for example, a population requires up to 95% immunity before the virus can stop spreading. But measles is more highly infectious compared to COVID-19 so the level of immunity required to achieve herd immunity would <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(17)30307-9/fulltext">likely be lower</a>. </p>
<h2>New variants complicate the picture</h2>
<p>While it is possible to calculate a magic number needed for herd immunity for COVID-19, there are several variables that prevent us from doing so accurately. These include the recent more contagious mutations and the lack of data on precisely how effective the vaccine is against asymptomatic spread.</p>
<p>Also unhelpful in a quest for herd immunity is that we cannot yet vaccinate children under 16. Clinical trials are underway to determine the efficacy of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for children and <a href="https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-children-study-results/507-dacf867b-60a9-42e5-b3e2-e388fb848e65">preliminary results are promising</a>. But until trials are completed and the data scientifically reviewed, New Zealand’s vaccination programme excludes just under a quarter of New Zealand’s population. </p>
<p>Even with an excellent vaccination programme, vaccination is not evenly distributed. There are groups and communities with lower coverage, which means there will be gaps across the population. </p>
<p>We have seen this with the <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/a-measles-epidemic-in-new-zealand-why-did-this-occur-and-how-can-we-prevent-it-occurring-again">2019 measles outbreak in New Zealand</a>. Even with high vaccination rates of over 90% across most of the population, and a highly effective vaccine, the disease affected communities or age groups with lower immunisation coverage.</p>
<h2>Disease control instead of elimination</h2>
<p>As long as COVID-19 continues to spread internationally, further border openings would import new cases and challenge New Zealand’s ability to maintain its elimination status. </p>
<p>A partial response may lie in aiming for the highest possible rates of immunisation, alongside ongoing public health measures that have worked well so far, including contact tracing. </p>
<p>One possible option would be to only allow vaccinated people into the country, because they are less likely to be carrying disease. But are we going to wait until vaccination gets to all countries, and to all age groups, before opening our borders? </p>
<p>Another option is to open the borders and support the vaccination of any unvaccinated people on arrival in New Zealand. This could be a feasible strategy once children are able to be vaccinated. </p>
<p>Another path is to let go of the concept of elimination and focus instead on disease control. We know with great confidence that this vaccine is effective at <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577;%20https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765">stopping severe disease and death</a>. </p>
<p>I recommend we put all our efforts into vaccinating everyone we possibly can, particularly more vulnerable individuals and communities. Then, when we do open the borders and the disease comes into New Zealand, we will see predominantly mild and asymptomatic disease. This will be manageable.</p>
<p>This strategy will require an effective vaccination coverage that doesn’t leave out those most in need. We must offer the vaccine equitably to everyone, with the best possible informed consent approaches, care and thought. There will still be those who choose not to vaccinate, but with a well communicated immunisation programme, this group should be a very small percentage of the population. </p>
<p>If we have a high rate of immunisation coverage, alongside traditional contact tracing, we can minimise the risk to these individuals and maintain an approach that relies on education and support rather than the heavy hand of mandatory vaccination.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nikki Turner works for the Immunisation Advisory Centre, that receives its primary source of funding form the New Zealand Ministry of Health . Additional funding comes from a variety of sources for specific research and other projects. Refer <a href="https://www.immune.org.nz/funding">https://www.immune.org.nz/funding</a></span></em></p>Even with the highest possible rates of vaccination, New Zealand will need to keep up public health measures, or consider letting go of the concept of elimination and focus instead on disease control.Nikki Turner, Professor, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1584232021-04-06T08:09:41Z2021-04-06T08:09:41ZA quarantine-free trans-Tasman bubble opens on April 19, but ‘flyer beware’ remains the reality of pandemic travel<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393508/original/file-20210406-15-of3jci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C77%2C5710%2C3096&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Pavel Ignatov</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s government today announced a long-awaited <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/travel-and-the-border/quarantine-free-travel/quarantine-free-travel-with-australia/">quarantine-free travel bubble</a> between New Zealand and Australia, beginning on April 19. </p>
<p>Provided there is no significant community outbreak in Australia, the risk of New Zealand importing cases of COVID-19 is very low. But should there be a community outbreak across the Tasman, the risk of bringing the virus into New Zealand could escalate rapidly, if travel numbers return to pre-COVID volumes. </p>
<p>This is why it will be critical to act swiftly if this happens. </p>
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<h2>Responding to a community outbreak</h2>
<p>New Zealand and Australia have both had numerous outbreaks of COVID-19 originating from managed isolation facility or other border workers. Frontline border workers are being prioritised for vaccination in both countries, which will reduce the risk of this happening again. But it is still possible — and it’s therefore crucial we have a solid resurgence plan. </p>
<p>The New Zealand response to a <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/fact-sheets/COVID-19-How-a-COVID-19-case-in-Australia-would-be-managed.pdf">new community case in Australia</a> will be based on the same decision making we have seen used in response to community cases here. A new case with a clear link to the border poses a relatively low risk and can usually be managed by contact tracing without the need for restrictions. In this situation, travel could safely continue. </p>
<p>But, as <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154955v3">our modelling</a> has shown, a new case with no clear link to the border indicates a higher risk of community transmission and undetected cases. In this scenario, travel from that state would be suspended until the risk diminishes. </p>
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<img alt="graphic to explain how trans-Tasman travel will be managed" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393509/original/file-20210406-23-1jh94e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393509/original/file-20210406-23-1jh94e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393509/original/file-20210406-23-1jh94e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393509/original/file-20210406-23-1jh94e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393509/original/file-20210406-23-1jh94e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393509/original/file-20210406-23-1jh94e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393509/original/file-20210406-23-1jh94e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://covid19.govt.nz/travel-and-the-border/quarantine-free-travel/quarantine-free-travel-with-australia/how-a-covid-19-case-in-australia-would-be-managed-quarantine-free-travel/">Unite Against COVID-19 website</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Once travel resumes, travellers may be asked to take a test, to self-isolate at home on return, or to go into managed isolation. </p>
<p>New Zealand wouldn’t have sufficient managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) capacity for everyone returning from even a single Australian state. Home isolation is the most likely option under most circumstances. But as long as people do what is asked of them, this will keep the risk of importing COVID-19 from Australia into New Zealand very low. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-year-on-from-the-arrival-of-covid-19-in-nz-5-lessons-for-2021-and-beyond-155367">A year on from the arrival of COVID-19 in NZ: 5 lessons for 2021 and beyond</a>
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<h2>Flyer beware</h2>
<p>People planning a trip across the Tasman should factor in the possibility of travel disruption before buying tickets. They should have contingency plans if they have to delay travel or self-isolate on return. Unfortunately, “flyer beware” is a reality of international travel during a pandemic.</p>
<p>It will also be important that New Zealand and Australian authorities share contact tracing information efficiently if needed and get in touch with people who were potentially exposed prior to travelling. </p>
<p>Australian visitors will be asked to install and use the <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/health-and-wellbeing/protect-yourself-and-others/keep-track-of-where-youve-been/nz-covid-tracer-app/">NZ COVID Tracer app</a> while in New Zealand. This will help our health officials trace their contacts should they become infected either before travelling or while in the country.</p>
<p>Passengers travelling in the quarantine-free bubble will also use segregated “green-zone” airport facilities and be on separate flights from passengers travelling from the rest of the world. This will prevent exposure to potentially infected travellers in the air and in the airport. </p>
<h2>Border controls with other countries</h2>
<p>Crucially, a safe travel bubble relies on both New Zealand and Australia continuing strict border control with other countries that still have community transmission of COVID-19. This will be necessary until we reach high levels of vaccine coverage in New Zealand and the threat from COVID-19 in our community starts to lessen. </p>
<p>Removing the requirement for travellers from Australia to quarantine will free up significant capacity in our MIQ facilities. If this capacity were to be filled with people from countries with high rates of COVID-19, it would increase the risk of border-related outbreaks in New Zealand. Vaccinating our MIQ workers mitigates this risk to some extent but doesn’t remove it completely. </p>
<p>We therefore welcome the announcement that some of that MIQ capacity will be reserved for relatively low-risk countries or as <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/trans-tasman-bubble-start-19-april">contingency for people needing to return</a> from a hotspot in Australia. </p>
<p>The government should also take this opportunity to consider retiring some facilities, including those that have <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018789236/buses-to-exercise-paused-for-miq-as-investigations-underway">no exercise space on site</a> or that have proved difficult to manage. </p>
<p>These measures would help us manage the overall risk at the border, and could still bring a slight increase in the number of MIQ rooms available to returning New Zealanders.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/eliminating-coronavirus-will-be-expensive-and-difficult-but-heres-why-its-preferable-to-suppression-142884">Eliminating coronavirus will be expensive and difficult – but here's why it's preferable to suppression</a>
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<p>The opening up of a travel bubble with Australia is a significant milestone in both countries’ pandemic responses. It brings to fruition one of the benefits of the elimination strategy both New Zealand and Australia have successfully pursued. </p>
<p>This is possibly the first example in the world of quarantine-free travel between two countries that have eliminated community transmission of COVID-19. It could act as a blueprint for a wider safe travel zone, which other countries that have eliminated COVID-19 may eventually be able to join.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Plank is affiliated with the University of Canterbury and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Hendy is affiliated with the University of Auckland and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p>New Zealand and Australia both had COVID-19 outbreaks originating from border facilities, but as frontline border workers are prioritised for vaccination, the risk of this happening again is lower.Michael Plank, Professor in Applied Mathematics, University of CanterburyShaun Hendy, Professor of Physics, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.