tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/queensland-politics-9568/articlesQueensland politics – La Conversation2024-03-22T02:21:06Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259872024-03-22T02:21:06Z2024-03-22T02:21:06ZLiberals likely to easily win most seats in Tasmania; huge swings to LNP at Queensland byelections<p>The Tasmanian state election is this Saturday. The 35 total lower house seats will be elected in five seven-member electorates using the proportional Hare Clark system, up from 25 total seats at previous elections. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%, down from 16.7% at previous elections.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/03/22/tasmanian-election-minus-one-day-2/">Poll Bludger on Friday reported</a> The Mercury had a Freshwater poll taken a “fortnight ago” for an undisclosed client. This poll had samples of 800 in each of the five electorates. It suggested the Liberals would win 15 of the 35 seats, Labor nine, the Greens four, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and independents four.</p>
<p>In Braddon, this poll gave the Liberals 49%, Labor just 15%, JLN 13% and independents 10%, suggesting Labor would win just one of Braddon’s seven seats, with the Liberals taking four, JLN one and an independent one. Labor would win two seats in each of the other four electorates, with the Greens and independents strong in Clark.</p>
<p>While the Liberals would be short of the 18 seats needed for a majority, the 15 seats they would win if this poll is accurate would give them a far better chance to form government than Labor. Freshwater’s federal polls have usually been better for the Coalition than other polls.</p>
<p>I covered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">Tasmanian uComms poll on March 15</a> that gave Labor just 23% of the vote. Both the uComms poll and Freshwater poll were taken about a fortnight ago, and there haven’t been recent polls conducted.</p>
<p>Labor is struggling in the polls in both Tasmania and Queensland, though from different positions. In Tasmania, the Liberals have held government since the 2014 election, while in Queensland, Labor has held power since the 2015 election. </p>
<p>The federal Labor government is likely now a drag for state Labor parties. Another factor is that Tasmania and Queensland are the most regional-dominated Australian states. At the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">2022 federal election</a>, Queensland was easily the best state for the Coalition, while Tasmania was the only state or territory that recorded a swing to the Coalition from the 2019 election.</p>
<p>I covered the urban shift to the left in an April 2022 article that suggested federal Labor could do well due to Australia’s big cities.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-a-continuing-education-divide-eventually-favour-labor-electorally-due-to-our-big-cities-180970">Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities?</a>
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<h2>Queensland Labor likely doomed after huge byelection swings</h2>
<p>Queensland state byelections were held on March 16 in the Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">ABC’s projections</a> are for the Liberal National Party to gain Ipswich West by a 53.5–46.5 margin, a 17.9% swing to the LNP since the October 2020 state election. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 39.6% LNP (up 18.5%), 35.0% Labor (down 15.1%), 14.5% Legalise Cannabis (up 10.0%) and 10.9% One Nation (down 3.9%). The Greens, who had 6.5% in 2020, did not contest.</p>
<p>Labor held <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/inal">Inala</a> by a 56.8–43.2 margin, but this was a 21.3% swing to the LNP. Primary votes were 37.3% Labor (down 30.1%), 29.3% LNP (up 12.8%), 10.1% Greens (up 2.3%) and a combined 19.5% for four independents. Inala was held by former premier Annastacia Palasczuk, and was one of only seven Labor-held seats after the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Queensland_state_election">2012 election wipeout</a>.</p>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. On March 15 I covered a Queensland Newspoll that gave the LNP a 54–46 lead, representing a seven-point swing to the LNP since the 2020 election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">Dire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming</a>
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<p>Byelection swings in government-held seats are usually worse for governments than the swings at general elections. But the huge swings in Inala and Ipswich West validate Newspoll. Labor has governed in Queensland since early 2015, but faces defeat in October.</p>
<p>Local government elections in Queensland were also held on March 16. In the high-profile Brisbane City Council, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/lm">incumbent LNP mayor</a> Adrian Schrinner defeated Labor by 56.3–43.7, a 0.1% swing to Labor since the 2020 election. </p>
<p>The LNP also <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results/party-totals">retained its majority</a> on the council, winning 17 of the 26 wards, to five for Labor, two Greens and one independent, with one still undecided. In both the mayoral and council elections, there was a primary vote swing to the Greens but it came at Labor’s expense.</p>
<h2>SA state byelection this Saturday</h2>
<p>A byelection in the South Australian Liberal-held state <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunstan-by-election-2024">seat of Dunstan</a> will also occur this Saturday after the retirement of former Liberal premier Steven Marshall. At the March 2022 SA election, Marshall defeated Labor in Dunstan by just a 50.5–49.5 margin. There have been no SA state polls since Labor ousted the Liberals at that election.</p>
<h2>Federal Morgan poll steady at 51.5–48.5 to Labor</h2>
<p>In this week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/federal-voting-intention-unchanged-in-mid-marchalp-51-5-cf-l-np-48-5">national Morgan poll</a>, conducted March 11–17 from a sample of 1,710, Labor led by 51.5–48.5, unchanged since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down one), 31.5% Labor (down 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (up 1.5), 9% independents (steady) and 4.5% others (up 0.5).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The polls are favouring the Liberals for Saturday’s state election, but whether they could govern in their own right is far less clear.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254552024-03-15T01:57:11Z2024-03-15T01:57:11ZDire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming<p>The Tasmanian state election is on March 23. A <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Polling-Tasmanian-Election-2024-Web.pdf">uComms poll</a> for The Australia Institute, conducted March 4–5 from a sample of 1,174, gave the Liberals 37.1% of the vote, Labor 23.0%, the Greens 13.7%, the Jacqui Lambie Network 8.5%, independents 12.8% and others 5.0%.</p>
<p>The Liberals have governed since winning the 2014 election. If this poll’s Labor vote of 23% is accurate, that would be a dreadful result for Labor ten years after losing power.</p>
<p>By 46–36, respondents thought Tasmania was headed in the wrong, rather than right, direction. A breakdown by voting intentions shows large majorities of all non-Liberal voters thought Tasmania was headed in the wrong direction.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the proportional Hare Clark system, with five electorates each returning seven members for a total of 35 lower house seats, up from 25 total seats at previous elections. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/ucomms-labor-23-how-much-stock-should.html">Kevin Bonham</a> said the Liberals would be expected to win 14 of the 35 seats if this poll is accurate, Labor ten, the Greens four, the JLN 2–3 and independents 4–5. The Liberals would be well short of the 18 needed for a majority, but much better placed to form government than Labor.</p>
<p>Bonham said that during the 2021 Tasmanian election campaign, uComms released a poll that greatly understated the Liberals. They have changed their methods since to include SMS as well as voice robopolling. They were accurate at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albaneses-ratings-surge-in-yougov-poll-tasmanian-poll-suggests-difficult-to-form-government-225083">federal Dunkley byelection</a>. Other recent Tasmanian polls also have the Liberals best placed to form a minority government.</p>
<h2>Queensland Newspoll: 54–46 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-queenslands-liberal-national-party-in-box-seat-for-majority-government/news-story/aac713de8fa9f0e67201bc0c64eae6e3">Newspoll</a>, conducted March 7–13 from a sample of 1,037, gave the Liberal National Party a 54–46 lead over Labor, representing a seven-point swing to the LNP since the October 2020 election. Primary votes were 42% LNP, 30% Labor, 13% Greens, 8% One Nation and 7% for all Others.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Steven Miles had a 49% dissatisfied, 38% satisfied rating (net -11), while LNP leader David Crisafulli was at net +14. Crisafulli led Miles as better premier by 43–37. Just 26% thought Labor deserved to be re-elected, while 58% thought it was time to give someone else a go. This is the first Queensland Newspoll since before the 2020 election.</p>
<p>After Miles replaced Annastacia Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier in December, there were two relatively good uComms polls for Labor, with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-steady-in-newspoll-but-down-in-resolve-its-tied-in-queensland-223853">one in mid-February</a> having a 50–50 tie. But this poll is a reversion to bad polling for a government headed for defeat in October. </p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015, and it was easily the worst state for Labor at the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">2022 federal election</a>, so a defeat for Labor is the expected outcome.</p>
<p>On Saturday, there will be Queensland state byelections in Labor-held Inala and Ipswich West, and Queensland local government elections, including for the high-profile <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guides">Brisbane City Council</a>. Labor won <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/inal">Inala</a> by 78.2–21.8 and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">Ipswich West</a> by 64.3–35.7 against the LNP in 2020.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/03/15/queensland-newspoll-state-by-elections-and-brisbane-city-council/">Poll Bludger</a> reported Friday that a DemosAU poll of the Brisbane City Council, conducted March 8–14 from a sample of 1,034, had the incumbent LNP Brisbane mayor leading Labor by 58–42, and the LNP also likely to retain their majority on the council.</p>
<h2>Federal Freshwater poll steady at 51–49 to Labor</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-shows-signs-of-recovery-as-labor-stops-the-rot-20240310-p5fb6x">Freshwater poll</a> for The Australian Financial Review, conducted March 8–10 from a sample of 1,051, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the February Freshwater poll. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-steady-in-newspoll-but-down-in-resolve-its-tied-in-queensland-223853">was steady</a> at -7, with 45% unfavourable and 37% favourable. Dutton’s net approval fell four points to -13. Albanese’s lead as preferred PM increased to 47–38 from 42–38 in February.</p>
<p>The Coalition’s lead over Labor on best to manage cost of living dropped to three points from six points in February, but they still led Labor by ten points on managing the economy. Cost of living was <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/what-voters-really-mean-when-they-say-the-cost-of-living-is-hurting-20240310-p5fb6w">rated an important issue</a> by 72%, up three since February, with housing second on 42%.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor regains slight lead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted March 6–10 from a sample of 1,126, gave Labor a 48–47 lead including undecided, a reversal of a 48–47 lead for the Coalition last fortnight. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down two), 8% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady), 8% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (up one).</p>
<p>Respondents were told that Australia spends $55.6 billion <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/12-march-2024">on defence</a>, making it the fourth highest expense in the budget. On this spending, 51% thought it about the right amount, 29% too much and 20% not enough.</p>
<p>On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 37% thought Israel should permanently withdraw from Gaza, 20% agree to a temporary ceasefire and 18% thought Israel was justified in continuing its actions.</p>
<p>On Australia’s relationship with China, 67% thought it a complex relationship to be managed, 20% that China is a threat to be confronted and 13% that China is a positive opportunity to be realised. There was no change in these responses since March 2023.</p>
<p>On Australia’s role in global affairs, 38% thought we should be an independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region, 20% primarily an ally of the United States and 25% said we should do our best not to engage in world affairs.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and Cook byelection</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9487-federal-voting-intention-march-12-2024">national Morgan poll</a>, conducted March 4–10 from a sample of 1,714, gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up 1.5), 32% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (down 0.5), 4% One Nation (up 0.5), 9% independents (up 0.5) and 4% others (steady).</p>
<p>The byelection in former Liberal prime minister Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/cook-by-election-2024">seat of Cook</a> will be held on April 13. At the 2022 election, Morrison defeated Labor by a 62.4–37.6 margin. Candidate nominations close next Thursday, with Labor not expected to contest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225455/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polls aren’t favouring state Labor parties. Based on the latest figures, Labor would struggle to form government in Tasmania, while support for the party in Queensland has dipped.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2238532024-02-25T22:19:07Z2024-02-25T22:19:07ZLabor steady in Newspoll but down in Resolve; it’s tied in Queensland<p>A federal <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/second-newspoll-in-a-row-shows-no-net-gain-for-labor-after-its-tax-reset/news-story/67814b9a43e96d1151f062fe5a79ce82">Newspoll</a>, conducted February 19–23 <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/most-australians-would-back-a-move-to-small-scale-nuclear-power/news-story/88589682d1d46b8257c0386f61d51aa6">from a sample</a> of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one) and 13% for all Others (up two). </p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% dissatisfied (steady) and 43% satisfied (up one), for a net approval of -8, up one point. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down one point to -14. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 47–35 (46–35 previously).</p>
<p>This graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll shows there has not been a recovery since the defeat of the Voice referendum.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/dec-2023">reported last Wednesday</a> that the wage price index rose 4.2% in the full year 2023 and 0.9% in the December quarter. This is the highest annual rise since 2009, though the quarterly rise was down from 1.3% in September.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">annual inflation rate</a> for the full year 2023 was 4.1%, so wage rises just beat inflation. For the December quarter, inflation was up 0.6%, so wage rises exceeded inflation by 0.3%. I expect this will be good news for the government.</p>
<h2>Labor down in Resolve poll, but would still lead</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-takes-primary-vote-lead-from-labor-for-first-time-since-election-20240225-p5f7lm.html?btis=">federal Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted February 21–24 from a sample of 1,603, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (up three since early December), Labor 34% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 6% (up one), the UAP 1% (steady), independents 9% (steady) and others 4% (up one).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until near elections, but applying 2022 preference flows to this poll gives Labor about a 52.5–47.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since December. This is easily Labor’s worst position this term in a Resolve poll, which has been very pro-Labor relative to other polls.</p>
<p>Despite Labor’s drop, Albanese’s net approval improved six points to -6, with 47% giving him a poor rating and 41% a good rating. Dutton was <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">down three points</a> to a -11 net approval. Albanese led Dutton by 39–32 as preferred PM, a narrowing from 42–28 in December. Voters supported the changes to the stage three tax cuts by a 52–14 margin.</p>
<p>The Liberals increased their lead over Labor on economic management from 35–27 in December to 38–27. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 30–26 (26–21 in December).</p>
<h2>Labor gains in Freshwater poll for a 51–49 lead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-unscathed-but-unrewarded-for-tax-u-turn-20240218-p5f5t9">Freshwater poll</a> for The Financial Review, conducted February 16–18 from a sample of 1,049, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since a <a href="https://theconversation.com/freshwater-national-poll-holds-steady-at-a-50-50-tie-between-labor-and-the-coalition-as-trump-set-for-big-win-in-iowa-caucus-220286">mid-January Freshwater poll</a> for The Daily Telegraph. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one since January), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (steady) and 17% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>Freshwater has been Labor’s worst pollster this term, while Resolve has been its best. Results from Freshwater, Newspoll and Resolve are now closer together than previously.</p>
<p>Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 42–38 (47–38 in January). In comparisons with the December poll, Albanese’s net approval was down two points to -7, while Dutton’s was down seven to -9. Barnaby <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-s-approval-rating-among-voters-sinks-like-a-stone-20240218-p5f5tp">Joyce’s net approval</a> crashed 16 points to -33.</p>
<p>By 44–15, voters supported the changes to the stage three tax cuts, with 26% “indifferent”. By 32–12, voters thought they would be better off under the changes, with 43% saying there would be no difference.</p>
<p>The cost of living is still the top issue for voters, with 69% listing it as a priority. The Coalition led Labor as best party to manage cost of living by 34–28. Since December, “crime and social order” jumped eight points to 25% to rank fifth on the <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voters-warn-labor-on-crime-and-social-order-20240218-p5f5ta">list of voters’ priorities</a>.</p>
<p>Net approval of the federal political parties was +1 for the Liberals, -4 for Labor, -7 for the Nationals and -19 for the Greens. Net approval of other prominent Labor ministers was +6 for Penny Wong, -3 for Jim Chalmers, -4 for Tanya Plibersek and -10 for Chris Bowen.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 52.5–47.5 to Labor</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9457-federal-voting-intention-february-19-2024">Morgan poll</a>, conducted February 12–18 from a sample of 1,706, Labor led by 52.5–47.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (down 0.5), 13% Greens (up one), 4% One Nation (down 0.5) and 12% for all Others (steady).</p>
<h2>Queensland UComms poll has a 50–50 tie</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/polling-shock-battlelines-drawn-as-explosive-new-poll-delivers-boilover-no-one-saw-coming/news-story/d88e3a62df3e949731e1d7e436f294ef">UComms poll</a> for The Courier Mail, conducted February 13 from a sample of 1,743, had Labor and the Liberal National Party tied at 50–50, a one-point gain for Labor since December. This is the first Queensland poll commissioned by The Courier Mail that has not shown a LNP lead since December 2022.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/23/ucomms-50-50-in-queensland/">Poll Bludger</a> reported the primary votes were 37.3% LNP (down 0.7), 34.2% Labor (down 0.2), 12.2% Greens (down 1.1), 7.7% One Nation (up 0.4) and 3.9% Katter’s Australian Party (down 0.1). Respondent preferences were better for Labor than in December.</p>
<p>Labor premier Steven Miles’ ratings were 44.2% positive (up 1.5), 25.2% neutral (down 2.4) and 25.2% negative (down 2.4). LNP leader David Crisafulli’s ratings were 41.7% positive (up 3.9), 31.2% neutral (up 1.0) and 18.7% negative (down 4.1). Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 51–49 (52.2–47.8 in December).</p>
<p>This is the second UComms poll since Miles replaced Annastacia Palaszczuk as Labor premier in December. Some of Labor’s poll problems were probably due to Palaszczuk’s unpopularity. But Labor will have been in government for almost ten years by the October election, so there may be an “it’s time” factor.</p>
<h2>Trump wins South Carolina, UK byelections and Indonesian election</h2>
<p>Donald Trump won the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday (US time), defeating Nikki Haley in her home state by a 59.8–39.5 margin. He is almost certain to seal the Republican presidential nomination by March 19, when 69% of Republican delegates will have been determined. I covered this for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/25/us-south-carolina-republican-primary-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>I covered the two February 15 UK byelections in Conservative-held seats for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/16/uk-by-elections-live-wellingborough-and-kingswood/">The Poll Bludger</a>. Both seats were gained by Labour on massive swings. The next UK general election is likely to be held late this year, with Labour far ahead in national polls. However, Labour was forced to disendorse their candidate for the February 29 Labour-held Rochdale byelection after nominations had closed.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/14/us-new-yorks-third-by-election-and-indonesian-election-live/">covered the February 14 Indonesian election</a>, in which the right-wing Prabowa Subianto won the presidency with an outright majority of the vote, meaning there won’t be a runoff election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223853/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of the Dunkley byelection on March 2, Labor takes a hit in key polls, but Anthony Albanese’s personal approval is still ahead of Peter Dutton’s.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2202862024-01-15T02:13:08Z2024-01-15T02:13:08ZFreshwater national poll holds steady at a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition as Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus<p>A national <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/shock-poll-we-dont-trust-albo-to-help-us-with-costs-of-living/news-story/e8b7e7b39bedcd2e4c8d14746d6c0a50">Freshwater poll</a> for The Sunday Telegraph had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404">Freshwater poll for The Financial Review</a> in mid-December.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/15/freshwater-strategy-50-50-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported that primary votes were 39% Coalition (steady since December), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one) and 15% for all Others (down one). This poll was conducted January 10–11 from a sample of 1,007.</p>
<p>Freshwater has had better results for the Coalition than other polls, so Labor would probably have led if there was a Newspoll.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton by 47–38 as preferred PM (43–39 in December). On Labor’s target to achieve 82% renewables by 2030, 51% said it would mean higher energy costs while 16% thought their bills would be reduced. On the cost of living, 81% said Labor had not done enough and 68% said they would not do enough in the next six months.</p>
<h2>Morgan polls, Resolve likeability and Newspoll aggregate data</h2>
<p>In my last polls article I reported that Labor led by 51–49 in the Morgan poll conducted December 4–10. In the Morgan poll <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9418-federal-voting-intention-december-17-2023">conducted December 11–17</a> there was a 50–50 tie. In <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9419-federal-voting-intention-january-8-2024">the poll conducted</a> January 2–7 from a sample of 1,716, the Coalition led by 51–49. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one since mid-December), 29% Labor (down three), 13% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 14% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>Nine newspapers released <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/wong-tops-list-of-popular-politicians-and-a-former-hero-now-comes-last-20231227-p5ett8.html">likeability ratings for various politicians</a> from the early December federal Resolve poll on December 28. The most popular politicians were Foreign Minister Penny Wong (net +14 likeability), Tasmanian independent senator Jacqui Lambie (net +10), Nationals senator Jacinta Price (net +6), ACT independent senator David Pocock (net +5) and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek (net +2).</p>
<p>The most unpopular politicians were former PM Scott Morrison (net -35), ex-Greens senator Lidia Thorpe (net -29), former deputy PM Barnaby Joyce (net -27) and Pauline Hanson (net -25).</p>
<p>Albanese had a net -3 likeability, much better than his <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">net approval</a> of -11 in the same poll, while Dutton’s net likeability was -12 (-8 net approval). Greens leader Adam Bandt was at -10 net likeability while Treasurer Jim Chalmers was at net zero.</p>
<p>Newspoll aggregate data for its three federal polls conducted from early November to mid-December was released on December 27. The overall sample was 3,655. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">previous aggregate data</a>, from Newspolls conducted before the October 14 Voice referendum, Labor led by 54–46. In this release, Labor’s overall lead was down to 52–48.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/27/newspoll-aggregates-october-to-december-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> said Labor’s lead or deficit in the various states was close to the margins at the 2022 federal election. Labor led by 51–49 in New South Wales, 55–45 in Victoria, 54–46 in Western Australia and 55–45 in South Australia. Queensland was the only state with a Coalition lead, by 54–46.</p>
<h2>Trump set for big win in Iowa Republican caucus</h2>
<p>The Iowa Republican caucus is the first <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/events.phtml?s=c&f=m">presidential nominating contest</a> of 2024, and it will occur Tuesday AEDT. In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/">FiveThirtyEight</a> aggregate of Iowa polls, Donald Trump has 51.3%, Nikki Haley 17.3% and Ron DeSantis 16.1%. The next contest is the New Hampshire primary on January 23, where Trump is <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/">being challenged</a> by Haley.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-elections-2024-a-biden-vs-trump-rematch-is-very-likely-with-trump-leading-biden-219093">US elections 2024: a Biden vs Trump rematch is very likely, with Trump leading Biden</a>
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<p>I covered the Taiwan presidential election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/13/taiwan-presidential-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday, in which the centre-left and pro-independence candidate won with 40.1% of the vote (first past the post was used). Three US and UK byelections that are to be held from February 13–15 were also covered.</p>
<h2>Queensland UComms poll: 51–49 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/ucomms-poll-steven-miless-ascension-makes-little-difference-to-labor-fortunes/news-story/13ff4bb2973e0ac46e941cf182f754f6">UComms poll</a> for The Courier Mail, conducted December 21–22 from a sample of 1,911, gave the Liberal National Party a 51–49 lead, from primary votes of 36.2% LNP and 34.4% Labor, with no other parties’ votes released. LNP leader David Crisafulli led new Labor premier Steven Miles by 52.2–47.8 as preferred premier.</p>
<p>An October <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">YouGov Queensland poll</a> gave the LNP a 52–48 lead, and a September to December <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">Resolve poll</a> implied a 50–50 tie, but Resolve has been much better for Labor federally than other polls.</p>
<h2>Victorian Redbridge poll: Labor has large lead</h2>
<p>A Victorian state <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Redbridge-Vic-public-opinion-and-vote-intention-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a>, conducted December 2–12 from a sample of 2,026, gave Labor a 55.9–44.1 lead, a 0.6-point gain for the Coalition since a <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Vic-votes-survey-Sept-2023.pdf">September Redbridge poll</a>. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 36% Coalition (up two), 13% Greens (steady) and 14% for all Others (down two).</p>
<p>Voters were asked their ratings of political leaders on a five-point scale, with 3 being neither approve nor disapprove. Labor Premier Jacinta Allan was at net -6, Liberal leader John Pesutto at net -13, Nationals leader Peter Walsh at net -15 and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at net -21.</p>
<p>On the main impact of protests over the Israel-Gaza war, 30% thought they had threatened the safety of Jewish and Palestinian Australians, 21% raised awareness of the conflict and 19% pressured the Australian government to call for an end.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian YouGov poll: Lambie Network has 20%</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48296-the-tasmanian-state-liberal-vote-is-down-17-since-the-last-election">Tasmanian state YouGov poll</a>, conducted December 21 to January 4 from a sample of 850, gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%. Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two party preferred is not applicable.</p>
<p>If this were the election result, the JLN would hold the balance of power. By 53–26, voters thought it was time to give someone else a go over the Liberals deserving to be re-elected. A November <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">EMRS Tasmanian poll</a> had 39% Liberals, 29% Labor, 12% Greens and 19% for all Others with no JLN option.</p>
<h2>Lawler replaces Fyles as NT chief minister</h2>
<p>Eva Lawler <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-20/eva-lawler-next-northern-territory-chief-minister/103252794">replaced Natasha Fyles</a> as Labor’s Northern Territory chief minister on December 21. Fyles had resigned two days prior owing to conflict of interest allegations, and Lawler was unanimously elected by Labor MPs. Fyles will continue as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natasha_Fyles">Member for Nightcliff</a>, so there won’t be a byelection.</p>
<p>This is the second change in NT chief minister this term after Fyles replaced Michael Gunner in May 2022. The next NT election is in August, and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">November Redbridge poll</a> had Labor well behind the opposition Country Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The summer break hasn’t changed the Freshwater polling figures for the two major parties federally. Overseas, the former US President is in a strong position ahead of the Iowa caucus.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195732023-12-10T06:53:50Z2023-12-10T06:53:50ZWith Annastacia Palaszczuk gone, can Labor achieve the unachievable in Queensland?<p>Democracies are, by nature, systems of stability and change.</p>
<p>But, north of the Tweed River, Queensland politics is very much about stability, and only a little about change. Where, for example, New South Wales has seen nine premiers over the past 20 years, Queensland has seen just four.</p>
<p>Yet a changing of the guard is now occurring after Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk – the daughter of a Labor cabinet minister and the last of the “COVID-19 era” premiers – tearfully announced her resignation as the state’s 39th (and second woman) premier. With the coming of the “silly season”, this is the perfect time for leadership transition: Labor can begin 2024 with a clean page.</p>
<p>When Palaszczuk departs on Friday, she will have served eight years and 305 days, becoming Queensland’s fifth-longest – and Labor’s third-longest – serving premier. She has represented the very safe Labor seat of Inala in Brisbane’s southwest since 2006.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk was elected Labor leader in 2012 to head a Labor rump of just seven MPs after Campbell Newman’s Liberal-National Party routed the Bligh Labor government. With the aid of a trade union campaign against an LNP plan to privatise state assets, Labor fell into minority government just three years later. It was the most remarkable turnaround in political fortunes in modern Australian history.</p>
<p>But Palaszczuk – who became the first woman to lead an opposition into government in an Australian federal or state (but not territory) election, the first woman to attain three successive election victories, and the first to lead a majority-female cabinet in Australia – was no “accidental premier”; she was a popular leader in her own right. </p>
<p>In carving out a new style of leadership – positioned somewhere between the amiable Peter Beattie and the administrative Anna Bligh – Palaszczuk blended a “next door neighbour” folksiness with a Queensland-first populism to forge a new type of “strong” yet accessible leader. That model of leadership was writ large via hard border closures during the early days of COVID-19, which saw Palaszczuk rewarded at the 2020 election with an increased parliamentary majority.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-if-her-leadership-is-now-doomed-annastacia-palaszczuk-will-still-be-a-labor-legend-in-queensland-212446">Even if her leadership is now doomed, Annastacia Palaszczuk will still be a Labor legend in Queensland</a>
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<p>More than a year after that victory, Labor – according to a February <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fqld-politics%2Flnp-closing-the-cap-on-labors-lead-in-the-polls-annastacia-palaszczuk-viewed-less-favourably%2Fnews-story%2F456de963cc25e13c2de2bc41a025a4f1&memtype=registered&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-1-SCORE">YouGov survey</a> – was still polling 39% of the primary vote (compared to 38% for the LNP), leading the LNP after preferences by 52% to 48%. </p>
<p>Moreover, Palaszczuk still enjoyed a <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fqld-politics%2Flnp-closing-the-cap-on-labors-lead-in-the-polls-annastacia-palaszczuk-viewed-less-favourably%2Fnews-story%2F456de963cc25e13c2de2bc41a025a4f1&memtype=registered&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-1-SCORE">net satisfaction rating</a> of plus-14 points. </p>
<p>Fast forward to late 2023, a Resolve-Strategic Poll pegged Labor’s primary vote at a mere at 33% (compared to 37% for the LNP). </p>
<p>With an October YouGov poll previously finding Labor trailing the LNP after preferences, 48% to 52% – a swing of five points from 2020 – Labor was set to lose 10 seats to the LNP (mostly in the regions) and at least two seats in Brisbane to the Greens. </p>
<p>Resolve-Strategic also found 39% preferring LNP leader David Crisafulli as premier, compared to 34% for Palaszczuk. Crisafulli <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fqld-politics%2Fyougov-poll-reveals-annastacia-palaszczuk-no-longer-preferred-premier%2Fnews-story%2F739ed4485028925e82247c51b2c27dd7&memtype=registered&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-1-SCORE">also enjoyed</a> a net approval rating of plus-nine points, while Palaszczuk had a net approval of minus-17. Rarely have we seen a once-widely admired leader become so widely disparaged.</p>
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<p>So what went wrong for Palaszczuk?</p>
<p>Palaszczuk’s most serious challenge emerged in early 2022, when questions of integrity were raised, including allegations of a partisan Crime and Corruption Commission, of ministerial staff bullying public servants, of too-cosy relationships with lobbyists, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-15/qld-annastacia-palaszczuk-integrity-commissioner-nikola-stepanov/100828498">alleged interference</a> in the work of the integrity commissioner. </p>
<p>The ordering of three inquiries stabilised Labor’s stocks. But, by late 2022, clever attacks by the LNP opposition (led by a moderate Crisafulli, who was by then building a high media profile) on Palaszczuk as a “part-time”, “checked-out” and “red carpet” premier proved stunningly successful. Coupled with crises in the cost of living, youth crime, housing and hospital ramping, Palaszczuk and Labor appeared directionless by 2023.</p>
<p>In August 2023, while the premier enjoyed an overseas holiday, speculation mounted that her decline in the polls meant a departure was imminent. But, on her return, Palaszczuk stood in the parliament, dug in her heels and reminded Queenslanders she was the boss. The fact Palaszczuk has only now succumbed to pressure suggests Labor’s internal power dynamics have changed during the past three months. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">Labor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it's close in Queensland</a>
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<p>Palaszczuk insists her poor approval ratings have nothing to do with the timing of her departure. Instead, she says, she decided to make way for change after seeing “new faces” at last week’s National Cabinet meeting. But it’s more likely party chieftains, especially those leading trade unions affiliated with the now-dominant Left faction, last week gave the premier a gentle “shoulder tap” and suggested her leadership was no longer tenable. </p>
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<p>Palaszczuk has already endorsed her deputy (and Left faction leader) Steven Miles as the next premier, despite her factional colleague and treasurer, Cameron Dick, often being touted for succession. Given the Left has controlled the Labor parliamentary party since 2015, Miles will inevitably become premier, although there is emerging caucus support for another Left star, Health Minister Shannon Fentiman. </p>
<p>There will, however, be no ballot. Given Queensland Labor rule changes in 2015 – where ballots for leadership contests are shared equally among caucus, rank and file members and trade union representatives – a drawn-out public brawl with a Labor Party in limbo will be avoided at all costs.</p>
<p>If victorious, the more softly-spoken Miles will bring a change of pace to a Queensland premiership where loud voices are the norm. Miles, 46, is a former small businessman who holds a doctorate in political science. The married father of three, who worked for the public sector Together Union, won the leafy Brisbane seat of Mt Coot-tha in 2015, then switched to the outer-Brisbane seat of Murrumba in 2017. He has previously served as minister for the environment and minister for health. </p>
<p>That Miles is poised to take the premiership today is arguably an accident of history. First, it is unusual for Queensland Labor to be dominated by the Left. Second, Miles was promoted to the deputy position in May 2020 only because former deputy premier and Left leader, Jacqui Trad, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-10/queensland-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-responds-to-jackie-trad/12231616">resigned from cabinet</a> following an investigation by the state’s corruption watchdog. Trad lost her seat to the Greens on LNP preferences in 2020.</p>
<p>Miles was not initially well-received as deputy premier, with voters anecdotally disliking him, and especially his attempts at the “attack dog” role deputies so often assume. </p>
<p>But, serving as acting premier during numerous Palaszczuk absences, other anecdotal evidence suggests Miles has garnered a degree of respect. </p>
<p>So we can expect a business-as-usual approach from a Miles cabinet. There will be heavy investment in infrastructure, especially in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, and in the regions; major strides toward clean energy (although coal, with recent royalty hikes, will still loom large); and a deep commitment to social justice, especially First Nations peoples, in the wake of the Voice to Parliament referendum’s defeat. </p>
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<p>The final question, whether Miles can turn a certain Labor defeat in the 2024 state election into a Labor victory, is as yet unanswerable. A fourth Labor term, even if in minority government with the Greens, is still possible, but far from probable. The LNP requires a 6.1% after-preference swing to snare the 14 seats it needs for majority government.</p>
<p>Until yesterday, Palaszczuk’s increasingly unpopular leadership was the biggest impediment to a Labor victory on October 26, 2024. That hurdle has now been removed. If inflation, as expected, cools next year, and if Miles can demonstrate some traditionally “strong” leadership and law and order populism – and mitigate hospital ramping and social housing shortages with immediate and tangible results – then Labor has a real chance.</p>
<p>Queensland politics just got interesting again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Assoc. Prof. Paul Williams is an associate with the T. J. Ryan Foundation</span></em></p>The first woman to become premier from opposition, and the first to win three elections, Palaszczuk has announced her retirement from politics.Paul Williams, Associate Professor, Griffith University, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190122023-12-05T23:08:24Z2023-12-05T23:08:24ZLabor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it’s close in Queensland<p>A federal <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (steady) and others 3% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 55–45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since November.</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November article on Resolve</a>, I said the big Labor lead was not supported by other recent polls, and this still applies. Last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">week’s Newspoll</a> had a 50–50 tie with the Coalition seven points ahead of Labor on primary votes, while Resolve has Labor one point ahead on primaries.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-peter-dutton-is-winning-the-border-wars-against-anthony-albanese-20231204-p5eops.html">Anthony Albanese’s performance</a>, 48% said it was poor and 37% good, for a net approval of -11, down five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 42–28 (40–27 in November).</p>
<p>Immigration has been in the news recently, and the Liberals led Labor on the immigration and refugees issue by 33–22, out from 28–25 in November. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 26–21, the same margin as in November (29–24). On economic management, the Liberals led by 35–27, virtually unchanged from November (34–27).</p>
<p>By 43–18, voters supported the government <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-voters-back-plan-to-rein-in-ndis-costs-20231204-p5eovf.html">limiting spending growth on the NDIS</a> to 8% a year (37–17 in May). On how to limit spending, 38% thought restrictions should be placed on who is given support, 26% didn’t want any spending restrictions and 18% wanted a cap on the amount of money paid to each participant.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and upcoming Dunkley byelection</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9416-federal-voting-intention-december-3-2023">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 27 to December 3 from a sample of 1,730, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 2.5), 32.5% Labor (up 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down 1.5).</p>
<p>Labor’s federal MP for the Victorian seat of Dunkley, Peta Murphy, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mp-peta-murphy-dies-aged-50-20231204-p5eov4.html">died from breast cancer</a> on Monday. In <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-210.htm">2022</a>, Murphy defeated the Liberals by 56.3–43.7. A byelection will be needed in Dunkley in the new year.</p>
<h2>It’s close in a Queensland Resolve poll</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/support-for-labor-steadies-despite-dip-in-palaszczuk-s-popularity-20231205-p5ep30.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from September to December from a sample of 940, gave the Liberal National Party 37% of the primary vote (down one since May to August), Labor 33% (up one), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 7% (down one) and others 3% (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/05/resolve-strategic-lnp-37-labor-33-greens-12-in-queensland/">Poll Bludger</a> says the primary votes suggest a “fairly even split on two-party preferred”. However, the clearly better results for Labor in Resolve’s federal polls than in other polls makes me more sceptical of this poll. The last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">Queensland YouGov poll</a>, in early October, gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability was down two points since August to -17, while LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability was up two to +9. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk as preferred premier by 39–34 (37–36 previously).</p>
<p>It looks as if Crisafulli is doing much better than expected given voting intentions. It’s rare for an opposition leader to be ahead on preferred premier. There has been <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/shannon-fentiman-denies-she-has-been-approached-to-replace-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk/news-story/3abf1b67a095ab4b383689b1f1677005">recent speculation</a> that Palaszczuk could be replaced as Labor leader and premier before the next election.</p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015. Although this poll is more positive for Labor, the overall trend this year has been to the LNP. I believe the LNP is the clear favourite to win the next Queensland election.</p>
<h2>Tasmania, WA and the NT</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/6567dd27d6227f53ebff4ac0/1701305655222/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+November+2023.pdf">Tasmanian state EMRS poll</a>, conducted November 20–27 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 39% (up one since August), Labor 29% (down three), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 19% (up three). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two party estimate is not applicable.</p>
<p>In May the Liberals slumped to a 36–31 lead over Labor from 42–30 in February, but have since recovered. Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 42–35 (42–39 in August).</p>
<p>The Western Australian state redistribution has been finalised. These boundaries will apply to lower house seats contested at the March 2025 WA election. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/01/western-australian-state-redistribution-finalised/">Poll Bludger</a> said the draft redistribution’s plan to merge two rural seats and create a new urban seat has been maintained.</p>
<p>Very large notional Labor margins in many seats reflect Labor’s record 69.7–30.3 landslide at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_Australian_state_election">2021 WA election</a>, in which they won 53 of the 59 lower house seats. Labor is virtually certain to lose many seats in 2025.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Northern-Territory-Social-Services-11.pdf">Redbridge Northern Territory poll</a>, conducted November 16–18 from a sample of 601, gave the Country Liberal Party 40.6% of the primary vote, Labor 19.7%, the Greens 13.1%, the Shooters 9.4% and independents 14.9%. No two party estimate was provided.</p>
<p>If these results were replicated at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Northern_Territory_general_election">next NT election</a> in August 2024, the incumbent Labor government would be defeated. There were similar results for federal NT voting intentions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the latest poll gives the Labor government a comfortable lead, this is not supported by other polls.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2161642023-10-31T23:16:27Z2023-10-31T23:16:27ZLabor recovers in Morgan after post-referendum slump; LNP leads in Queensland<p>A federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan poll</a>, conducted October 22–29 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9529-roy-morgan-update-october-31-2023">sample</a> of 1,375, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, a 3.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/alp-support-plunges-after-the-defeat-of-the-voice-referendum-alp-49-5-down-4-5-cf-l-np-coalition-50-5-up-4-5">An earlier poll</a>, taken in the week after the Voice referendum was heavily defeated, was the first by any pollster this term to give the Coalition a lead, by 50.5–49.5, a 4.5-point gain for the Coalition since the pre-referendum Morgan poll.</p>
<p>Primary votes in the earlier poll were 36% Coalition, 32% Labor, 14% Greens, 4.5% One Nation, 8.5% independents and 5% others. If preferences were distributed according to how they flowed at the 2022 federal election, Labor would have led by about 53–47. Respondent allocated preferences were very weak for Labor.</p>
<p>In the current poll, primary votes were 35% Coalition, 32.5% Labor, 15% Greens and 17.5% for all Others. Labor had a better flow of respondent preferences, explaining its rebound.</p>
<h2>Greens slump in Essential poll owing to methods change</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">national Essential poll</a>, conducted October 25–29 from a sample of 1,149, Labor led by 48–46 including undecided voters, down from a 50–45 lead in Essential’s pre-referendum poll in early October. This is Labor’s narrowest lead this term in this poll, beating the previous narrowest four-point lead in mid-September.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 34% Coalition (up two), 32% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (down four), 7% One Nation (up one), 3% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 6% undecided (up one). </p>
<p>Essential has been recording higher Greens votes than other pollsters, and the slump here likely reflects their adding of <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/methodology">education level</a> to weighting factors. <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-to-parliament-referendum-has-been-heavily-defeated-nationally-and-in-all-states-213156">Essential greatly overstated</a> “yes” support at the Voice referendum.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/31-october-2023">other questions</a>, 38% said Australia was not doing enough to address climate change (down one since April), 36% said we were doing enough (up three) and 17% doing too much (up one). Since Labor’s election in May 2022, the “not doing enough” percentage has dropped from the low to mid 40s to the high 30s.</p>
<p>On several environmental issues, more people thought the government was not doing enough now than in June. On the most important drivers of energy price increases, 28% (up four since October 2022) blamed excessive profits by energy companies, while 19% (down one) blamed efforts to fight climate change.</p>
<p>By 50–33, voters supported Australia developing nuclear power plants for electricity generation (50–32 in September 2021). On the cost of energy sources, 38% thought renewable energy the most expensive, 34% that nuclear energy was most expensive and 28% fossil fuels.</p>
<p>By 50–43, voters did not trust the government to lead the renewable energy transition. By 57–31, they thought it unlikely Australia would reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<h2>Newspoll aggregate data from late August to mid-October</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-buyers-remorse-for-alp-backers-as-support-falls-in-victoria-wa/news-story/33cbc0b111a3f609ff4eb3b28a738b4e">Australian has released</a>
the aggregate results of voting intentions and leaders’ ratings for the four Newspolls conducted in the lead-up to the October 14 Voice referendum. These polls were taken from August 28 to October 12 from an overall sample of 6,378.</p>
<p>Labor led nationally by 54–46, by 56–44 in New South Wales, 54–46 in Victoria, 57–43 in South Australia, 53–47 in Western Australia and 57–43 in Tasmania. Queensland was the one state with a Coalition lead, by 52–48.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/10/23/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> said the last time Newspoll released aggregate data was from February to early April, when Newspoll was conducted by YouGov not the current Pyxis. Since the last aggregate release, Labor is up one in NSW, down four in Victoria, down two in Queensland, down four in WA and up one in SA.</p>
<p>By educational attainment, Labor led by 55–45 among university educated people and 53–47 among those without tertiary education or with a TAFE/technical education. This flat pattern is very different to education breakdowns for the Voice referendum, where “no” was way ahead with the latter two categories, but “yes” led with the university educated.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-australians-supported-voice-referendum-by-large-margins-labor-retains-large-newspoll-lead-215663">Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead</a>
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<h2>Queensland YouGov poll: 52–48 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland election will be held in October 2024. A <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/yougov-poll-reveals-annastacia-palaszczuk-no-longer-preferred-premier/news-story/739ed4485028925e82247c51b2c27dd7">YouGov poll</a> for The Courier Mail, conducted October 4–10 from a sample of 1,013, gave the Liberal National Party a 52–48 lead, a one-point gain for the LNP since the previous YouGov Queensland poll in early April.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 41% LNP (up two), 33% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (down two) and 5% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>Leaders’ approval ratings were not asked in April, so changes are compared with a YouGov poll in early December 2022. Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net approval dropped 19 points to -20, with 52% dissatisfied and 32% satisfied. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval improved seven points to +11.</p>
<p>Crisafulli led Palasczuk by 37–35 as better premier, a reversal of a 31–29 Palaszczuk lead in April.</p>
<p>Labor has been sliding in the Queensland polls this year, with a September <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-and-albaneses-ratings-continue-to-tumble-in-resolve-and-other-polls-212872">Redbridge poll</a> giving the LNP a 55–45 lead. </p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Queensland_state_election">early 2015</a>, but federally it is the most conservative state. It was the only state the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">Coalition won at the 2022 federal election</a>, and is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/referendum/2023/results?filter=all&sort=az&state=all&party=all">easily the worst state</a> for “yes” at the Voice referendum. It may be more difficult for Labor to win Queensland state elections in the future.</p>
<h2>UK byelections and Argentine election</h2>
<p>I covered the two October 19 UK byelections and the October 22 Argentine presidential election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/10/19/two-uk-by-elections-and-argentine-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. UK Labour gained both seats that had byelections from the Conservatives on massive swings. </p>
<p>In Argentina, the centre-left Sergio Massa led the far-right Javier Milei by 36.7–30.0 with 23.8% for a conservative candidate. There will be a runoff between Massa and Milei on November 19.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216164/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a post-referendum drop in the polls, Labor has bounced back.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2128722023-09-11T02:33:04Z2023-09-11T02:33:04ZVoice support and Albanese’s ratings continue to tumble in Resolve and other polls<p>The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. A national <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-continue-to-turn-against-the-voice-and-albanese-along-with-it-20230910-p5e3fy.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted September 6–9 from a sample of 1,604, gave “no” to the Voice a 57–43 lead in a forced choice, out from a 54–46 “no” lead in August. Initial preferences were 49% “no” (<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-albanese-and-the-voice-slide-in-resolve-poll-fadden-byelection-preference-flows-211206">up four</a>), 35% “yes” (down two) and 16% undecided (down two).</p>
<p>In the last week, we have had Voice polls from Essential, Redbridge and Freshwater (see below) as well as Resolve. I have updated the Voice polls graph to reflect these new results. The graph now includes point results and trend lines for Redbridge and Freshwater.</p>
<p>Essential remains easily the best pollster for “yes”, but even this poll had “no” ahead by six points last week. Resolve, Newspoll and Freshwater polls gave “no” a 14 to 18 point lead, while Redbridge is the worst poll for “yes” with a 22-point lead for “no”. In all polling series, there is a worsening trend for “yes”.</p>
<p>Resolve combined its August and September Voice results for a national sample of 3,207, which would have given “no” about a 55.5–44.5 national lead. “No” led in all states except Tasmania, where “yes” was ahead by 56–44 on a small sample size. The leads for “no” ranged from 51–49 in Victoria to 61–39 in Queensland and Western Australia.</p>
<p>The falling polls for “yes” have encouraged many “yes” supporters on social media to attack the pollsters, spuriously claiming that there is something wrong with the polls. <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/09/australian-polling-denial-and.html">Analyst Kevin Bonham</a> addressed many claims of “poll denial” in this long article last Wednesday, written after Newspoll gave “no” a 15-point lead.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-records-first-net-negative-newspoll-approval-as-voice-support-slumps-further-212368">Albanese records first net negative Newspoll approval as Voice support slumps further</a>
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<h2>Labor and Albanese also down in Resolve poll</h2>
<p>Primary votes in this Resolve poll were 36% Labor (down one since August), 34% Coalition (up one), 12% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (steady), 2% UAP (steady), 9% independents (down one) and 2% others (steady).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give two party estimates until close to elections, but a calculation based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor about a 55.5–44.5 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since August. While this is still a large lead, Resolve has been the most favourable pollster for Labor since the 2022 election.</p>
<p>On Anthony Albanese, 47% thought he was doing a poor job and 40% a good job, for a net approval of -7, down nine points. Peter Dutton’s net approval increased five points to -8, with only one point separating Albanese and Dutton’s net approval. Albanese’s lead as preferred PM was reduced to 43–28 from 46–25 in August.</p>
<p>Albanese’s polling honeymoon is over. After winning the May 2022 election, he was in positive double digits on net approval until the last two months, but his most recent net approvals are +3 from Essential, -1 from last week’s Newspoll and -7 from Resolve.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: ‘No’ extends lead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/05-september-2023">Essential poll</a>, conducted August 30 to September 3 from a sample of 1,151, gave “no” to the Indigneous Voice to parliament a 48–42 lead, out from a 47–43 “no” lead in August. On voting strength, 41% said they were hard “no” (up three), 7% soft “no” (down two), 30% hard “yes” (down one) and 12% soft “yes” (steady).</p>
<p>In Essential’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">two party measure</a> that includes undecided, Labor maintained an unchanged 51–43 lead from the previous fortnight. Primary votes were 32% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (down two), 15% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up two), 2% UAP (down one), 7% for all Others (steady) and 6% undecided (steady).</p>
<p>Albanese’s ratings were 46% approve (down two since July) and 43% disapprove (up two), for a net approval of +3, down four points. Dutton’s net approval improved one point to -5.</p>
<p>On Australia’s overall intelligence, 42% thought we were becoming less intelligent, 47% staying the same and 11% becoming more intelligent.</p>
<h2>Morgan, Redbridge and Freshwater polls</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">weekly Morgan</a> poll, conducted August 28 to September 3 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9484-roy-morgan-update-september-5-2023">sample</a> of 1,404, Labor led by 53–47, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition, 33.5% Labor, 13% Greens and 16% for all Others.</p>
<p>A federal <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Federal-Poll-Sept-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a>, conducted August 30 to September 4 from a sample of 1,001, gave Labor a 54.1–45.9 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since <a href="https://theconversation.com/lnp-takes-lead-in-queensland-resolve-poll-but-labor-still-far-ahead-in-victoria-211674">mid-August</a>. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 36% Coalition (up four), 13% Greens (up three) and 14% for all Others (down seven).</p>
<p>This <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Voice-Poll-September-Week-One-2023.pdf">poll also gave</a> “no” to the Voice a 61–39 lead, a widening from a 56–44 “no” lead in <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-to-the-voice-takes-lead-in-essential-poll-huge-swing-to-libs-at-wa-state-byelection-210685">late July</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12497985/Voice-referendum-Support-Indigenous-body-advise-parliament-freefall-Redbridge-poll.html">Daily Mail</a> reported Saturday that a national Freshwater poll gave “no” a 59–41 lead, a reversal of a 55–45 “yes” <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-maintains-large-newspoll-lead-but-support-for-voice-slumps-206104">lead in May</a>. Initial preferences were 50% “no” (up 11), 35% “yes” (down 13) and 15% undecided (up two). No fieldwork dates or sample size are available yet, but the poll was taken “last week”.</p>
<h2>Queensland Redbridge poll: 55–45 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/09/09/weekend-miscellany-voice-and-queensland-polls-liberal-senate-preselections-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported Saturday that a Redbridge poll, conducted August 26 to September 6 from a sample of 2,012, gave the Liberal National Party a 55–45 lead, from primary votes of 41% LNP, 26% Labor, 14% Greens and 19% for all Others, which did not include a separate figure for One Nation.</p>
<p>This is the first Redbridge Queensland state poll, and it is easily the worst for Labor of any poll this term. I wrote in late August that Queensland polls have been trending to the LNP this year, and this poll looks like a continuation of that trend.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lnp-takes-lead-in-queensland-resolve-poll-but-labor-still-far-ahead-in-victoria-211674">LNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As support for the Voice continues to slide, voters are turning away from the Albanese government too.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124462023-08-31T20:00:54Z2023-08-31T20:00:54ZEven if her leadership is now doomed, Annastacia Palaszczuk will still be a Labor legend in Queensland<p>Whatever fate awaits Annastacia Palaszczuk over the coming weeks, Queensland’s 39th – and only the second woman – premier will never lose her standing in the Australian Labor pantheon.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk, the state Labor leader since 2012 and premier since 2015, is already Australia’s most successful female political leader. She was the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/from-pala-who-to-premier-the-rise-and-rise-of-annastacia-palaszczuk/mns6vln9o">first woman</a> to lead an opposition into government in an Australian state or federal election, the <a href="https://www.mamamia.com.au/annastacia-palaszczuk-queensland-election/">first woman</a> to attain three successive election victories in Australia, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-day-of-firsts-for-women-in-politics-and-one-in-particular-37115">first head</a> of a majority-female cabinet. </p>
<p>If Palaszczuk can survive the building pressure on her to resign, she could next year become Queensland’s fourth longest-serving – and Labor’s second longest-serving – premier since 1860. But that prospect is becoming increasingly unlikely. </p>
<p>In July, a Freshwater Strategy poll for the Australian Financial Review <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/palaszczuk-on-track-to-lose-in-2024-poll-20230704-p5dlp1">found</a> just 39% of Queenslanders now approve of Palaszczuk’s leadership, with 47% disapproving – a net negative of eight points. </p>
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<p>And an August Resolve Strategic Poll <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/18/resolve-strategic-lnp-38-labor-32-greens-11-in-queensland/">showed</a> 37% of respondents preferring Liberal-National Party Opposition leader David Crisafulli as premier, compared to 36% who preferred Palaszczuk. This was the first time in almost a decade an LNP leader has taken the lead.</p>
<p>What a far cry from the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic. In July 2020, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/popular-queensland-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-but-poll-party-postponed/news-story/b3cfaad162045d1bb9edec092f215e2e">Newspoll</a> found 64% of Queenslanders approving of Palaszczuk’s leadership, with 81% approving of her management of the pandemic and subsequent hard border closures. Just 29% disapproved of her leadership – a net positive of 35 points. </p>
<p>Worse for Labor, Resolve now pegs LNP first-preference support at 38% (up three points since the 2020 election), with Labor at just 32% (down seven). The LNP also has an after-preference lead of 53–47% over Labor. </p>
<p>If this lead is held, it would likely be enough to allow the LNP to win the 14 seats needed for majority government in next October’s election. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-someone-say-election-how-politics-met-pandemic-to-create-fortress-queensland-144067">Did someone say 'election'?: how politics met pandemic to create 'fortress Queensland'</a>
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<h2>A perception of a ‘checked-out’ premier</h2>
<p>To outsiders it might appear Palaszczuk – who has dominated Queensland politics like no other since <a href="https://www.slq.qld.gov.au/blog/peter-beattie-inside-story">Peter Beattie</a> more than a decade ago – has suffered a rapid fall from grace. But Palaszczuk’s decline has been a slow burn. </p>
<p>A year after <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/palaszczuk-wins-third-term-20201031-p56ael">securing</a> her third term as premier in the 2020 election, Palaszczuk was wholly untroubled by a virtually unknown opposition leader. </p>
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<p>But, by early 2022, Palaszczuk had found herself enmeshed in several integrity crises, including accusations the Crime and Corruption Commission had not been impartial in its investigation of alleged local government corruption, and that senior public servants had allegedly suffered political interference from ministerial staff. </p>
<p>Worse, Palaszczuk appeared slow to respond to the allegations before appointing three separate inquiries. One inquiry, under Professor Peter Coaldrake, <a href="https://www.coaldrakereview.qld.gov.au/reports.aspx">published</a> unfavourable findings.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk issues surprise apology after integrity questions.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The effect was rapid and seismic: the hitherto Teflon Palaszczuk now looked flawed, and opinion polls soon reflected Labor’s vulnerability. By June 2022, YouGov had <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/yougov-poll-reveals-queensland-would-face-hung-parliament-if-election-held-today/news-story/6626176ebca3cd2413e7790485cbfaa4">revealed</a> a five-point collapse in Labor’s primary vote, with the LNP, now on 38%, leading Labor for the first time. </p>
<p>But as the dust settled on Labor’s integrity issues, the LNP and a conservative news media cleverly switched narratives. Palaszczuk was then framed as a “<a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/premier-cancels-meeting-for-luxury-yacht-trip-with-boyfriend/news-story/2bacc9389c75103902336ece72f6faae">checked-out</a>”, “red carpet” premier more interested in mixing with celebrities and attending glitzy gala events with her new partner. </p>
<p>That narrative appeared to gain public traction when, in August last year, the media accused Palaszczuk of <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/premier-cancels-meeting-for-luxury-yacht-trip-with-boyfriend/news-story/2bacc9389c75103902336ece72f6faae">cancelling</a> a cabinet meeting to spend time on a luxury yacht. The coincidental circumstance of Palaszczuk last week leaving for a holiday in Italy, just as the media storm broke over her leadership troubles, can only deepen perceptions of a “part-time” premier.</p>
<p>As public policy crises have continued to dominate the media over the past year, the accusation that Palaszczuk has taken her eye off the policy ball has only gained further traction. With a soaring cost of living, deepening housing crisis, overcrowded hospitals and budget blowouts in infrastructure projects, it’s little wonder voters have started to turn on her government. </p>
<p>But, more than any other, it’s the issue of youth crime that has most profoundly brought Palaszczuk’s leadership into question. Her government has been roundly <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-is-not-only-trampling-the-rights-of-children-it-is-setting-a-concerning-legal-precedent-212377">criticised</a> for the hastily passed legislation last week that could see children held “indefinitely” in Queensland watch houses – a move that was resisted by Labor’s majority Left faction. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-is-not-only-trampling-the-rights-of-children-it-is-setting-a-concerning-legal-precedent-212377">Queensland is not only trampling the rights of children, it is setting a concerning legal precedent</a>
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<h2>Who might step into her large shoes?</h2>
<p>In short, Palaszczuk has been Labor’s best asset in Queensland since 2012; now she appears a liability. </p>
<p>Despite unconvincing reassurances from senior government ministers that Palaszczuk will lead Labor to the October 2024 election, the momentum of leadership change now appears beyond the point of no return. It’s almost certain Queensland will have a new Labor premier, possibly by the end of this month. </p>
<p>There appear to be only three candidates: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Steven Miles, the deputy premier and leader of the Left faction of the party</p></li>
<li><p>Shannon Fentiman, the health minister and a member of the Left faction</p></li>
<li><p>Cameron Dick, the treasurer and head of Labor Forum, a right Labor faction </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Dick has long been touted as a future premier but, given the Left has controlled the Labor caucus since 2015, either a Miles or Fentiman premiership is the more likely outcome. </p>
<p>Because Queensland Labor rules around leadership spills are so complicated – a ballot must be held in caucus, among grassroots members and among the unions – it’s likely Palaszczuk will be urged to resign when she returns from her holiday, with a single candidate emerging as her successor. </p>
<p>Either way, the next Labor leader would have very large shoes to fill. Labor had suffered a rout in the 2012 election, with the LNP capturing 78 seats in the 89-seat parliament – the <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22library/prspub/1695517%22">then-largest majority</a> in Australian history. When Palaszczuk put her hand up to lead the seven remaining Labor MPs, nobody would believe she’d <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/QldElect">topple</a> the once-popular premier, Campbell Newman, just three years later. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-annastacia-palaszczuk-queenslands-likely-next-premier-37023">Who is Annastacia Palaszczuk, Queensland’s likely next premier?</a>
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<p>But, by 2015, Queenslanders had been angered by Newman’s proposal to privatise state-owned assets. They also appeared tired of big personalities like Joh Bjelke-Petersen, Peter Beattie and Newman. Even those in regional Queensland warmed to a Labor leader who looked and sounded like a friendly next-door neighbour. </p>
<p>Will a leadership change be too little, too late to reverse the fortunes of a Labor Party looking for a fourth term? Probably. But it’s foolish to completely write off the party that has dominated Queensland politics for 28 of the past 33 years. </p>
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<p><em>Correction: This story has been amended to specify that Palaszczuk was the first woman to lead an opposition into government in an Australian state or federal election, not anywhere in Australia. It had previously happened in the ACT and Northern Territory.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212446/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Williams is an associate with Queensland's T. J. Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>The once-popular Queensland premier is facing growing pressure to resign. How did Palaszczuk lose the public’s faith, and who could replace her?Paul Williams, Associate Professor, Griffith University, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116742023-08-21T05:15:06Z2023-08-21T05:15:06ZLNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/lnp-ahead-in-the-polls-as-voters-consider-crisafulli-over-palaszczuk-20230815-p5dwmf.html">Resolve</a> poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted from May to August with a sample of 947, gave the Liberal National Party 38% of the primary vote (up five since January to April), Labor 32% (down three), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 8% (up one), independents 8% (down two) and others 3% (up one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two-party estimate until near elections, but <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/18/resolve-strategic-lnp-38-labor-32-greens-11-in-queensland/">The Poll Bludger</a> estimated a 51.5–48.5 lead for the LNP from this poll, a 4.5-point gain for the LNP <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-but-voice-support-slumps-in-other-polls-nsw-final-results-and-queensland-polls-204107">since April</a>.</p>
<p>Since the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has had better results for Labor in its federal and state polls than other pollsters, so this is a particularly bad result for Labor. The only other recent Queensland poll was an early July <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slumps-in-essential-poll-lnp-leads-in-queensland-208578">Freshwater poll</a> that gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability has deteriorated this year. She was at net +8 in the poll conducted in late 2022, net -5 in early 2023 and now net -15 in this poll. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability improved six points from April to +7. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk by 37–36 as preferred premier, reversing a Palaszczuk lead of 39–31 in April.</p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Queensland_state_election">early 2015</a>, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state. It was the only state the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">Coalition won at the 2022 federal election</a>.</p>
<p>By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an “it’s time” factor for voters.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor down but still far ahead</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-lead-stays-strong-but-andrews-personal-popularity-falls-20230816-p5dx0e.html">Victorian state Resolve</a> poll for The Age, conducted with the federal July and August Resolve polls from a sample of 1,047, gave Labor 39% of the primary vote (down two since June), the Coalition 28% (up two), the Greens 13% (down two), independents 13% (up one) and others 7% (up one).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/17/resolve-strategic-labor-39-coalition-28-greens-13-in-victoria/">Poll Bludger</a> estimated this poll would give Labor a 60–40 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition <a href="https://theconversation.com/woeful-victorian-poll-for-state-coalition-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-federal-seats-as-wa-gains-207628">since June</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/woeful-victorian-poll-for-state-coalition-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-federal-seats-as-wa-gains-207628">Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains</a>
</strong>
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<p>Labor Premier Daniel Andrews’ net likeability was down eight points since June to -7, while Liberal leader John Pesutto’s net likeability was up four points to -9. Andrews led Pesutto as preferred premier by 44–29 (49–26 in June).</p>
<p>In questions asked only of the August sample, voters opposed the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games by a 39–35 margin, but those supporting the cancellation would include people who thought Victoria should not have offered to hold the games in the first place.</p>
<p>Respondents were opposed by 44–30 to the decision to ban gas connections to new homes from next year. By 49–30, they supported <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-answer-is-more-housing-victorian-rental-caps-off-the-table-20230817-p5dxck.html">freezing rent levels</a> so owners can only increase rent every two years.</p>
<p>The July federal <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-labor-party-plunges-in-a-morgan-poll-after-commonwealth-games-axed-209976">Resolve poll</a> was conducted entirely before the games cancellation was <a href="https://www.foxsports.com.au/more-sports/bombshell-announcement-leaves-26b-commonwealth-games-in-tatters/news-story/95bcca71bfc734d740a254a6273362f6">announced</a> on July 18, so only the August part of this poll would include reaction to this decision.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-labor-party-plunges-in-a-morgan-poll-after-commonwealth-games-axed-209976">Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed</a>
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<h2>Federal Morgan and Redbridge polls give Labor large leads</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan federal poll</a>, conducted August 7–13 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9469-roy-morgan-update-august-15-2023">sample</a> of 1,452, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 35.5% Labor, 34.5% Coalition, 12% Greens and 18% for all others. Labor’s lead in Morgan has <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-to-the-voice-takes-lead-in-essential-poll-huge-swing-to-libs-at-wa-state-byelection-210685">increased recently</a> from a low of 52–48 in late July.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/20/weekend-miscellany-newspoll-developments-climate-polling-labor-national-executive-ballot/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on Sunday that a Redbridge federal poll, conducted last week from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor a 55.6–44.4 lead, from primary votes of 38% Labor, 32% Coalition, 10% Greens and 21% for all others.</p>
<h2>Additional federal Resolve questions</h2>
<p>I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-albanese-and-the-voice-slide-in-resolve-poll-fadden-byelection-preference-flows-211206">previously covered</a> the slide in Labor’s vote, Albanese’s ratings and support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament in a federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that was conducted August 9–13 from a sample of 1,603.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-spurn-idea-of-early-poll-over-housing-deadlock-20230815-p5dwjs.html">additional questions</a> from this poll, 54% wanted the next federal election after a full term is served in early 2025, while 20% wanted an early election in 2024. By 35–33, respondents did not think Labor’s housing policy important enough to call a special early election of both houses of parliament.</p>
<p>On housing policy, 30% agreed with Labor’s position, 24% with the Coalition, 18% with the Greens and 28% were undecided.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/cost-of-living-crisis-drives-slump-in-support-for-urgent-climate-action-20230816-p5dwx7.html">climate change</a>, 45% (down six since October 2021) thought it a serious and urgent problem that we should be taking action on now, even if that involves significant costs, 29% (up two) thought gradual action adequate, and 16% (up four) said we shouldn’t take action that has significant costs “until we are sure climate change is a real problem”.</p>
<p>By 59–19, respondents supported Labor’s 43% emissions reduction target by 2030, but support for specific climate change measures dropped since October 2021. For example, 29% (down eight) supported the Greens’ proposal to ban all coal mining and exports by 2030.</p>
<p>The poll article in The Age blames cost-of-living increases for undermining support for climate action.</p>
<h2>Newspoll to be administered by a new pollster</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/20/weekend-miscellany-newspoll-developments-climate-polling-labor-national-executive-ballot/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on Sunday that Pyxis Polling will conduct Newspoll. Pyxis was formed after two senior staff at YouGov, which used to conduct Newspoll, resigned to start their own polling company.</p>
<p>I do not know when the first new Newspoll will appear, but it has now been five weeks since the last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-2pp-despite-primary-slide-lnp-wins-fadden-byelection-easily-209686">YouGov-conducted Newspoll</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211674/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an ‘it’s time’ factor for voters.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2085782023-07-11T04:13:09Z2023-07-11T04:13:09ZVoice support slumps in Essential poll; LNP leads in Queensland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536726/original/file-20230711-17-yabr5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca de Marchi/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>An <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/10-july-2023">Essential poll</a>, conducted July 5-9 from a sample of 1,125, had “yes” to the Indigenous Voice to parliament leading by 47-43, with 10% undecided. There has been a methods change from previous Essential polls that had no undecided option. </p>
<p>The last Essential Voice poll in June gave “yes” a 60–40 lead, in contrast to a 51–49 “no” lead from Resolve in a poll conducted at the same time.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/resolve-first-national-poll-to-have-no-ahead-in-voice-referendum-but-essential-has-yes-far-ahead-207015">Resolve first national poll to have 'no' ahead in Voice referendum, but Essential has 'yes' far ahead</a>
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<p>The graph below shows the “yes” lead or deficit in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Australian_Indigenous_Voice_referendum">2023 Voice polls</a> from Newspoll, Resolve, Essential and Morgan pollsters. If the pollster used a forced choice, I have used the forced choice result. The poll result dates are the last dates of fieldwork. There are trendlines for all pollsters. I used the statistical software Minitab for this graph.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536698/original/file-20230710-11159-cw4d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2023 Voice polls.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The trajectories of Resolve and Newspoll are similar, while Essential has been the most friendly pollster for “yes”. The last Morgan Voice poll was taken in May. While Essential still has “yes” ahead, there is now a clear down trend in “yes” support in this poll.</p>
<h2>Other Essential results: Labor leads by 51–44</h2>
<p>In Essential’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">two party measure</a> that includes undecided, Labor led by 51–44 (52–42 last fortnight). This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Essential since March. Primary votes were 32% Labor (steady), 32% Coalition (up two), 14% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one), 1% UAP (down one), 8% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (down one).</p>
<p>By 71–22, voters thought the government could make a lot or a fair amount of difference to the cost of living. Capping prices for electricity and gas was the most pupular option for addressing the cost of living, with 73% saying it would make a difference and the government should do it.</p>
<p>On Australia’s stumping of Jonny Bairstow in the second Ashes Test, 48% thought the Australians were totally justified, 27% said they wouldn’t have done it but the English need to get over it, 9% “same old Aussies, always cheating” and 16% “what’s the Ashes?”.</p>
<h2>Be sceptical of claims of existential crises for current opposition parties</h2>
<p>A paper for the <a href="https://www.cis.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/RR-46-Generation-Left.pdf">Centre for Independent Studies</a> is claiming that the Coalition will struggle to win future elections owing to lack of movement to the right among younger generations as they age. But when the Coalition unexpectedly won the 2019 election, there were claims of an <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/10/02/labor-light-on-the-hill-speech-chalmers/">existential crisis for Labor</a>.</p>
<p>Internationally, there were claims of an existential crisis for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/15/the-guardian-view-on-labours-defeat-an-existential-crisis-with-no-easy-solution">United Kingdom Labour</a> after the Conservatives won a clear majority at the UK 2019 election, but <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">Labour is leading</a> in current UK national polls by about 20 points.</p>
<p>In June I wrote that in continental Europe, the right is <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-indictment-trump-retains-huge-lead-in-republican-primary-polls-and-narrowly-leads-biden-207721">advancing</a>, and in the United States Donald Trump has a narrow lead over Joe Biden. This is occurring despite the generational effects the CIS paper claims will damage the Coalition. </p>
<p>If there’s a problem for the Coalition in Australia, it’s probably due to the high percentage of our population that lives in big cities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-a-continuing-education-divide-eventually-favour-labor-electorally-due-to-our-big-cities-180970">Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities?</a>
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<h2>Last fortnight’s Essential poll</h2>
<p>In last <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/27-june-2023">fortnight’s Essential poll</a>, voters were asked to rate Albanese, Dutton and Greens leader Adam Bandt from 0 to 10. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese had a 36–27 positive rating, down from 41–24 in May. Dutton’s ratings improved to 34–27 negative from 35–23. Bandt was at 38–21 negative.</p>
<p>Respondents were asked whether the government was doing enough, not enough or too much to address various issues. Relieving cost of living pressures had the highest score for not enough (75% not enough, 20% enough, 5% too much). Ensuring affordable and secure rentals rated 69% not enough, 25% enough, 6% too much. Environmental issues had about 40% saying the government was doing enough.</p>
<p>Federal parliament was rated fourth out of five options for ensuring work is a safe place for women, behind the public service, private companies and sporting clubs and ahead of only the entertainment industry.</p>
<h2>LNP leads in Queensland Freshwater poll</h2>
<p>The next Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted June 29 to July 2 from a sample of 1,065, gave the Liberal National Party a 52–48 lead over the incumbent Labor government. Primary votes were 40% LNP, 34% Labor, 11% Greens and 15% for all Others with no separate figure provided for One Nation.</p>
<p>LNP leader David Crisafulli led Labor incumbent Annastacia Palaszczuk as better premier by 45–44. It’s unusual for an opposition leader to hold a better PM/premier lead. Poll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/05/freshwater-strategy-52-48-to-lnp-in-queensland/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>An April YouGov Queensland poll gave the LNP a 51–49 lead, although Resolve still had Labor ahead, but Resolve has skewed to Labor federally and in state polls since the May 2022 federal election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-but-voice-support-slumps-in-other-polls-nsw-final-results-and-queensland-polls-204107">Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls</a>
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<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Queensland_state_election">early 2015</a>, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state. It was the only state the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">Coalition won at the 2022 election</a>. By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an “it’s time” factor.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/09/weekend-miscellany-by-elections-voice-polling-gerard-rennicks-preselection-defeat-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported Sunday that “no” to the Voice led in this Queensland-only poll by 50–36 including undecided, or 58–42 excluding undecided.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208578/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polling continues to show that support for a “yes” vote at the upcoming referendum is losing ground.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1964782022-12-19T01:23:57Z2022-12-19T01:23:57ZLabor just ahead in two Queensland polls and retains large federal poll lead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501756/original/file-20221219-19-w6i3s9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/12/12/yougov-50-50-in-queensland-2/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on two Queensland polls on December 12. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted December 1-8 from a sample of 1,000, had a 50-50 tie, unchanged since June. Primary votes were 38% LNP (steady), 34% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one), 11% One Nation (up one) and 4% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk had a 41% disapproval rating (up two) and a 40% approval (down five), for a net approval of -1, down seven points. LNP leader David Crisafilli had a 31-27 approval rating (31-23 in June). Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier slipped to 39-28 from 41-28 in June.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/12/mid-term-queensland-polling-and.html">Kevin Bonham</a> strongly criticised The Courier Mail for the anti-Labor slant they put on this poll.</p>
<p>The first <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/palaszczuk-labor-still-favoured-by-voters-at-political-halfway-mark-20221212-p5c5k3.html">Resolve Queensland state poll</a>, conducted from August to December from a sample of 924 for The Brisbane Times, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote, the LNP 35%, the Greens 11%, One Nation 6%, independents 7% and others 4%.</p>
<p>Resolve does not give two party estimates until close to elections, but Bonham estimated this poll would be 53-47 to Labor. This Queensland poll was presumably conducted with the five federal Resolve polls from August to December.</p>
<p>Asked whether they held positive, neutral or negative views of the leaders or were unfamiliar with them, Palaszczuk had a 39-31 positive rating and Crisafulli a 23-15 positive rating. Palaszczuk led as preferred premier by 42-30.</p>
<p>The next Queensland election is not <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Queensland_state_election">until October 2024</a>. Currently Labor appears to be just ahead, and Bonham thinks Labor would be likely to hold onto enough seats to form government with a 50-50 two party tie. </p>
<p>By the 2024 election, Labor will have held power since the January 2015 election, so there’s time for the polling to worsen for Labor. But Victorian Labor just retained government after eight years in power with 56 of the 88 lower house seats, up one since the 2018 election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-victorian-election-results-how-would-upper-house-look-using-the-senate-system-196291">Final Victorian election results: how would upper house look using the Senate system?</a>
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<h2>NSW Resolve poll on cashless gaming card</h2>
<p>The New South Wales state election is in March 2023. We have been getting NSW voting intentions after every second federal Resolve poll. The last voting intentions was in <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-newspoll-has-labors-lead-down-but-would-still-win-with-three-weeks-until-election-193825">early November</a>, and there’s only been one federal Resolve poll since. I don’t expect NSW voting intentions until after the next federal Resolve poll.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/voters-back-strong-action-on-pokies-as-60-percent-support-cashless-gaming-card-20221206-p5c425.html">NSW Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, presumably conducted with just the federal December Resolve poll, had voters supporting a mandatory cashless gaming card by 62-16. However, the question wording included arguments in favour of the cashless gaming card, but none against.</p>
<p>If the cashless gaming card were to go ahead, 32% wanted it introduced immediately for all gamblers, 24% to have a voluntary trial of the card statewide and 19% a mandatory trial in specific areas.</p>
<p>By 47-28, voters thought pubs and clubs have been poor instead of good on problem gambling. By 30-26, voters trusted Labor and Chris Minns over the Liberals and Dominic Perrottet to get the right outcome on gambling reforms.</p>
<h2>Federal polls: Essential and Morgan</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">federal Essential poll</a>, Labor led by 51-44 on Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided (51-43 in <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-retains-big-lead-in-newspoll-as-albaneses-ratings-jump-victorian-election-update-195440">late November</a>). Primary votes were 35% Labor (up two), 30% Coalition (down one), 13% Greens (steady), 17% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (down one). Respondent allocated preferences were friendly for the Coalition.</p>
<p>In other findings from <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/13-december-2022">this poll</a> of 1,042 respondents conducted in the days before December 13, Anthony Albanese’s ratings were unchanged since November at 60-27 approval (net +33). An Indigenous Voice to parliament was supported by a 63-37 margin (65-35 in August).</p>
<p>Probably due to the change in federal government, 2022 was considered a good year for trade unions over a bad year by a net +13, up from -13 in 2021. Small business was up from -45 to -25 in 2022, after the end of COVID lockdowns. The Australian economy had a net -27 rating in 2022, down one point on 2021.</p>
<p>Thinking about 2023, 40% thought it would be better for Australia than 2022, 25% no difference and 24% worse. On economic indicators, 78-80% expected the cost of living, energy prices and interest rates to be up in the year ahead, while 43% expected unemployment to be up, 30% about the same and 18% down.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/weekly-update-december-13-2022-consumer-confidence-inflation-expectations-unemployment">Morgan federal poll</a>, conducted December 5-11, gave Labor a 56.5-53.5 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Morgan’s polls have been better for the Coalition than others since the May election. This is Labor’s highest two party vote in Morgan polls since the election.</p>
<h2>US Senator Kyrsten Sinema switches from Democrat to independent</h2>
<p>Shortly after United States Democrats won the December 6 <a href="https://theconversation.com/resolve-poll-gives-labor-huge-lead-us-democrats-win-georgia-senate-runoff-196047">Georgia Senate runoff</a> election to seal a 51-49 federal Senate majority, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/democratic-sen-kyrsten-sinema-switches-to-independent/4a61b6ad-5af1-4415-a299-14c67ee3d68d">defected from the Democrats</a> to become an independent.</p>
<p>I have not seen any polls of Arizona conducted since Sinema defected, but <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/09/kyrsten-sinema-approval-rating-equally-unpopular-everyone.html">Slate reported</a> on a September poll that showed Sinema was unpopular with all Arizona demographics sampled. Sinema was at net -17 overall, net -20 with Democrats and net -18 with Republicans. She performed better with independent voters, but was still at net -10 with them.</p>
<p>Sinema is up for re-election in November 2024. Democrats are likely to run their own candidate against Sinema and a Republican. I do not know which side she will take most votes from, but it’s very unlikely Sinema will win given her unpopularity across the board.</p>
<p>Republicans’ worse than expected performance at the US midterm elections has resulted in some polls of the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/">Republican presidential nomination</a> in 2024 showing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis now leading former president Donald Trump, although Trump still leads in others.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With an election due in October 2024, Queenslanders still favour the incumbent Palaszczuk government.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1661902021-09-02T05:34:31Z2021-09-02T05:34:31ZThe George Christensen formula — how do maverick MPs succeed in Australian politics?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417343/original/file-20210823-13-1sv3h5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C0%2C3174%2C1805&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nationals MP George Christensen recently <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-10/george-christensen-mp-condemned-parliament-covid-misinformation/100365856">copped condemnation</a> from federal parliament for spreading misinformation about COVID-19. </p>
<p>The member for the central Queensland seat of Dawson falsely claimed masks and lockdowns were ineffective against the spread of COVID, demanding governments “open society back up” to “restore our freedoms [and] end this madness”. In a rare move, both Labor and the government backed the motion against him. </p>
<p>The comments were outrageous, but not surprising. Christensen, who has been in parliament since 2010, has a <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/topics/life/feature/george-controversies-australian-government-mp">long history</a> of courting controversy, including comments on Muslim immigrants and global warming. </p>
<p>Why do people listen to him? Where does his power base come from? </p>
<h2>Democratically elected, so…</h2>
<p>Understanding why Christensen can make such statements — and why the news media report them — is simple: as a democratically elected MP, he is entitled to air even the most egregious views under parliamentary privilege. </p>
<p>Of course, the parliament is equally entitled to condemn him. And the more novel his views, and the more conflict they produce, the more likely they are to be reported.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1422408155275743232"}"></div></p>
<p>What is more difficult to explain, however, is how and why maverick politicians succeed in a liberal democracy like Australia, where the confines of political discourse have traditionally been quite narrow. </p>
<p>Unlike many European polities, Australian politics have never really entertained hard socialism on the left or ultra-conservatism on the right, at least until the rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation in the late 1990s. </p>
<h2>The maverick tradition in Australia</h2>
<p>Yet mavericks have existed since the earliest days of Australian politics.</p>
<p>Before the evolution of the modern party system 130 years ago, rogues were common in legislatures free from party constraints. Today, given the major parties’ discipline over their MPs — most of whom boast frontbench ambitions — and an aggressive Fourth Estate, political mavericks are much rarer. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/twenty-years-on-one-nation-is-still-chaotic-controversial-and-influential-97247">Twenty years on, One Nation is still chaotic, controversial and influential</a>
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<p>And those who fail to toe the party line are often forced out. Pauline Hanson, Bob Katter, Clive Palmer, Fraser Anning (Queensland appears to be a natural home to mavericks) are just a few examples of those who left established parties to lead their own, self-titled brigades. </p>
<p>Other mavericks include Graeme Campbell (Western Australia), Jacqui Lambie (Tasmania) and Fred Nile, Mark Latham and Craig Kelly (NSW).</p>
<p>While overwhelmingly from conservative ranks, mavericks have come from the centre, such as South Australia’s Nick Xenophon. They have also come from the hard left, in the case of Queensland’s Fred Paterson, Australia’s only Communist Party MP, elected to a central Queensland seat in the 1940s.</p>
<h2>What is it about Queensland?</h2>
<p>But what is it about Queensland regional voters and their predilection for mavericks? </p>
<p>The answer lies in understanding Queensland’s unique political culture – steeped in a populism that vilifies “elites” and “outsiders”. This itself built upon five pillars: </p>
<ol>
<li>a reverence for strong, opinionated leaders</li>
<li>a demand for regional services across Australia’s most decentralised mainland state</li>
<li>a demand for local infrastructure</li>
<li>a preference for political pragmatism (“common sense” solutions to complex problems)</li>
<li>a Queensland chauvinism that encourages locals to feel superior to other Australians.<br></li>
</ol>
<p>In a decentralised state overwhelmingly dependent on primary industries, where <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajph.12760">regional voters</a> boast significantly higher rates of Christian identity and lower rates of higher education and multiculturalism, it’s perhaps unsurprising regional Queensland has long been shaped by frontier politics. </p>
<p>And any regional MP hoping to maintain electoral support must pander at least to some of these elements.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="MP Bob Katter and senator Pauline Hanson." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417347/original/file-20210823-27-15koogs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417347/original/file-20210823-27-15koogs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417347/original/file-20210823-27-15koogs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417347/original/file-20210823-27-15koogs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417347/original/file-20210823-27-15koogs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417347/original/file-20210823-27-15koogs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417347/original/file-20210823-27-15koogs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bob Katter and Pauline Hanson are two more examples of ‘maverick’ MPs who hail from Queensland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Christensen, for example, has previously called for a ban on the burqa and Muslim immigration from “radicalised” countries. In 2016, he floated the return of the death penalty. In 2014, the MP labelled environmentalists “terrorists” and, in a statement he <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/topics/life/feature/george-controversies-australian-government-mp">later regretted</a>, described the “Safe Schools” program as paedophile “grooming”. </p>
<p>Yet Christensen also supported a banking royal commission when his Coalition colleagues would not. And while his pandemic libertarianism – rooted in Donald Trump’s Republicanism – is a new development on the Australian hard right, it’s hardly surprising it finds a ready audience among regional Queenslanders, already suspicious of capital city power. </p>
<h2>Christensen’s success</h2>
<p>The formula appears to work. The seat of Dawson, based on sugar farming districts surrounding Mackay, has been in Country/ National/Liberal-National party hands for all but 12 of its 72-year history. But over the past decade, Christensen has turned a thin after-preference margin of 2.4% into a safe 14.6% buffer.</p>
<p>However, the Christensen style has come at a cost. In sating the appetite of local voters, the MP has inevitably angered metropolitan colleagues and, therefore, blocked any chance of promotion. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce and MP George Christensen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417346/original/file-20210823-15-1c9c9o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417346/original/file-20210823-15-1c9c9o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417346/original/file-20210823-15-1c9c9o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417346/original/file-20210823-15-1c9c9o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417346/original/file-20210823-15-1c9c9o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417346/original/file-20210823-15-1c9c9o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417346/original/file-20210823-15-1c9c9o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce (pictured in 2016) argues it is better not to provoke Christensen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Interestingly, returned Nationals’ leader Barnaby Joyce, himself something of a maverick, refuses to rebuke his MP — Joyce insists it’s worse than useless to “prod the [Christensen] bear”. Given the Morrison government’s razor-thin majority, an unwanted by election could plunge the Coalition into crisis.</p>
<p>In April, Christensen stunned observers when he <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-28/mp-george-christensen-retires-to-focus-more-on-family-life/100100760">announced his retirement</a> at the next federal election. On Sunday, Whitsunday Regional Council Mayor Andrew Willcox was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-29/andrew-willcox-named-george-christensen-lnp-replacement-dawson/100416174">preselected</a> as the Liberal National Party’s candidate for Dawson. Coal miner <a href="https://7news.com.au/politics/federal-politics/labor-announces-miner-as-dawson-candidate-c-2752054">Shane Hamilton</a> will contest the election for Labor.</p>
<p>Christensen’s successor won’t have to mirror him to hold the seat, but engaging in at least some of his populist behaviour will go far in building support over the longer term. </p>
<p>In choosing the timing of his own departure from a safe seat at age just 43, it seems Christensen remains a maverick to the very end. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/right-out-there-how-the-pandemic-has-given-rise-to-extreme-views-and-fractured-conservative-politics-165448">Right out there: how the pandemic has given rise to extreme views and fractured conservative politics</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166190/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Paul Williams is an associate of the T.J. Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>Mavericks have existed since the earliest days of Australian politics. And they find a natural home in Queensland.Paul Williams, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1270102019-11-26T18:40:37Z2019-11-26T18:40:37Z‘New Bradfield’: rerouting rivers to recapture a pioneering spirit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303353/original/file-20191125-74567-1lshtdu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C205%2C4031%2C2776&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Waters from the Herbert River, which runs toward one of northern Australia's richest agricultural districts, could be redirected under a Bradfield scheme.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick White</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The “<a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/newbradfield/">New Bradfield</a>” scheme is more than an attempt to transcend environmental reality. It seeks to revive a pioneering spirit and a nation-building ethos supposedly stifled by the <a href="https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/townsville/townsville-enterprise-to-receive-24m-for-hells-gates-dam-case-after-months-of-bureacratic-delay/news-story/492dba14afd4ce71ffd08f12d38c15a6">bureaucratic inertia</a> of modern Australia.</p>
<p>This is not a new lament. Frustrated by bureaucracy, politicians in North Queensland have long criticised the slow pace of northern development. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-boost-australias-north-to-5-million-people-without-a-proper-plan-125063">You can't boost Australia's north to 5 million people without a proper plan</a>
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<p>In 1950, northern local governments blamed urban lethargy. <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/63184273?searchTerm=concern%20at%20drift%20in%20north%27s%20population&searchLimits=">One prominent mayor</a> complained:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… these young people lack the pioneering spirit of their forebears, preferring leisure and pleasure to hardships and hard work.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These sentiments were inspired by an agrarian nostalgia that extolled toil and toughness. Stoic responses to the challenges of life on the land are part of the <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/9284258">Australian legend</a>.</p>
<p>With drought devastating rural and urban communities and a state election looming in Queensland in 2020, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/leaders-tout-bradfield-scheme-options-in-queensland-election-fight-20191101-p536o2.html">both sides of politics</a> have proposed a “New Bradfield” scheme.</p>
<h2>An idea with 19th-century origins</h2>
<p>Civil engineer John Bradfield devised the original scheme in 1938. His plan would <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97050378?browse=ndp%3Abrowse%2Ftitle%2FQ%2Ftitle%2F379%2F1939%2F05%2F04%2Fpage%2F10280686%2Farticle%2F97050378">swamp inland Australia</a> by reversing the flow of North Queensland’s rivers. Similar proposals go back to at least 1887, when geographer <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/35590102?q&versionId=44284267+219718360+231090219">E.A. Leonard recommended</a> the Herbert, Tully, Johnstone and Barron rivers be turned around to irrigate Australia’s “<a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/13361128">dead heart</a>”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302057/original/file-20191117-66921-mj64sz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Blencoe Falls, on a tributary of the Herbert River, North Queensland, during the dry season.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick White</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the “dead heart” became the “<a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/finlayson-hedley-herbert-14881">Red Centre</a>” in the 1930s, <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/6707892?q&versionId=7723963">populist writers</a> revived the dreams of big irrigation schemes. </p>
<p>These schemes have always been contested on both <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-18/fact-file-bradfield-scheme-drought-relief/11216616">environmental and economic grounds</a>. A <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/20252029">compelling history of Bradfield’s</a> proposal reveals many errors and miscalculations. But what the scheme lacked in substance it made up for in grandiose vision.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/the-water-dreamers">Water dreaming</a> has been a powerful theme in Australian history. The desire to transform desert into farmland retains appeal and <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97099323?searchTerm=bradfield%20AND%20%22Nimmo%22&searchLimits=exactPhrase=Nimmo%7C%7C%7CanyWords%7C%7C%7CnotWords%7C%7C%7CrequestHandler%7C%7C%7CdateFrom=1944-01-01%7C%7C%7CdateTo=1948-01-01%7C%7C%7Cl-advstate=National%7C%7C%7Cl-advstate=New+South+Wales%7C%7C%7Cl-advstate=Queensland%7C%7C%7Cl-advstate=Victoria%7C%7C%7Csortby">discredited</a> schemes like Bradfield keep reappearing.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-keys-to-unlock-northern-australia-have-already-been-cut-69713">The keys to unlock Northern Australia have already been cut</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Contempt for nature and country</h2>
<p>While less ambitious than the original plan, the “New Bradfield” scheme still engineers against the gradient of both history and nature. It would have irreversible consequences for Queensland’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/experts-dismiss-new-drought-proofing-bradfield-scheme/11666006">environment</a>, society and culture.</p>
<p>What’s more, the new scheme manifests much the same mindset as the old. </p>
<p>It’s an attitude that privileges the conquest of nature: in this case literally up-ending geography by turning east-flowing rivers westward. Its celebration of the human struggle against defiant nature reprises the pioneering ethos.</p>
<p>Like many pioneers, “New Bradfield” proposals disregard the interests and land-management practices of Indigenous people. The bushfires ravaging the eastern states show the folly of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-14/traditional-owners-predicted-bushfire-disaster/11700320?sf223598160=1&fbclid=IwAR2UkvGj_wyO4s6tbRqyI5sI6UgEI6SvqkoMwxCFEkKEV6FO7ZGJfGMP3Kc">ignoring traditional ways of caring for country</a> . </p>
<p><a href="http://www.hcourt.gov.au/cases/case_d1-2018">Overlooking native title realities</a> can also cost governments and communities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-indigenous-australias-ecological-economies-give-us-something-to-build-on-123917">Remote Indigenous Australia's ecological economies give us something to build on</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Polarising debate neglects more viable projects</h2>
<p>“New Bradfield” is promoted as “<a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/newbradfield/?utm_source=Digitaliyf&utm_medium=GSearch&utm_campaign=NBradfield&gclid=CjwKCAiA8K7uBRBBEiwACOm4d-0xBRkgojO1Wykl937_rMhWhPhAb2ZsKhcKHOqdM2OuG11V34XdHBoCxBMQAvD_BwE">an asset owned by all Queenslanders for all Queenslanders</a>”. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-darling-river-is-simply-not-supposed-to-dry-out-even-in-drought-109880">environmental destruction</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-are-driving-high-water-prices-in-the-murray-darling-basin-119993">disputes over water sales</a> in the Murray-Darling Basin sound a warning.</p>
<p>The Queensland Farmers Federation has <a href="https://www.qff.org.au/media-releases/qff-welcomes-lnp-commitment-new-bradfield-scheme/">cautiously welcomed</a> the new scheme. Others have dismissed it as a “<a href="https://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/story/6479100/cold-water-poured-on-bradfield-mark-ii/">pipe dream</a>”. </p>
<p>Thus, northern Australia again sits amid a polarised debate about its utility to the nation. Such polarising contests diminish the likelihood of more viable projects being implemented.</p>
<p>Extravagant expectations of “untapped” northern resources have been <a href="https://scholarly.info/book/northern-dreams/">proffered for nearly two centuries</a>. Distant governments have fantasised the Australian tropics as a land of near-limitless potential. Northern communities have many times been disappointed by the results.</p>
<p>Today’s promises to “<a href="https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/opinion/flow-of-jobs-water-vital-for-nq-says-lnp-leader-deb-frecklington/news-story/053bb635b9cb86461ead6eedd39756ca">drought-proof</a>” large areas of Queensland rely on similar images. “Drought-proofing” aims to keep people on the land but often defies economic and social reality.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-drought-proof-australia-and-trying-is-a-fools-errand-124504">We can’t drought-proof Australia, and trying is a fool's errand</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Dam developments have an underwhelming record</h2>
<p>The “New Bradfield” rhetoric echoes the inflated expectations of myriad disappointing northern development plans in the past. The <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9781349905737">Ord River project</a> was touted as an agricultural wonder that would put hundreds of thousands of farmers into the Kimberley. Its success lies forever just over the horizon.</p>
<p>Much closer to the present proposal is the Burdekin Falls Dam. It sits in the lower reaches of the same river earmarked for the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-01/bradfield-scheme-is-moving-water-from-north-to-south-feasible/11662942">Hells Gates Dam that would feed</a> the “New Bradfield” scheme. Damming Hells Gates has been advocated since at least the 1930s and has <a href="https://www.townsvilleenterprise.com.au/news-media/news-centre/advocacy-alert-hells-gates-funding-agreement-signals-boots-on-the-ground/">new supporters</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302055/original/file-20191117-66921-zna3a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proposed site for Hells Gates Dam is on Gugu Badhun country on the Burdekin River.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dr Theresa Petray</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Back in the 1950s, damming the Burdekin was expected to generate hydro-electric power and irrigate vast swathes of farmland. After decades of political squabbling, the dam was completed in 1988. It does not generate hydro power. Although it irrigates some land downstream, the anticipated huge agricultural expansion never happened.</p>
<p>The Burdekin Falls Dam has helped the regional economy and could help to overcome the water shortages of the nearby city of Townsville. But it has not met the inflated expectations widely proffered decades earlier. The benefits that would flow from another dam further upstream are likely to be even more meagre.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/damming-northern-australia-we-need-to-learn-hard-lessons-from-the-south-53885">Damming northern Australia: we need to learn hard lessons from the south</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Grandiose visions of northern development have a habit of <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/8505121?selectedversion=NBD660057">failing</a>. A “New Bradfield” scheme, animated by an old pioneering ethos, is unlikely to be different. </p>
<p>Drought-affected communities would derive more benefit from sober proposals that acknowledge the past, integrate Indigenous knowledge and incorporate agricultural innovation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127010/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick White receives funding from an Australian Government Postgraduate Award.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janine Gertz’s PhD Doctoral research was funded by a JCU Australian Postgraduate Award and a JCU Prestige Indigenous Research Award. Janine provides administrative support to the Gugu Badhun Aboriginal Corporation RNTBC. Gugu Badhun Aboriginal Nation is participating in a Nation-Building research project “Prerequisite conditions for Indigenous nation self-government” which is funded by an ARC Discovery Grant, led by the Jumbunna Institute for Indigenous Education and Research, University of Technology Sydney. Gugu Badhun is also a research partner on a native food project with the ARC Training Centre for Uniquely Australian Foods, University of Queensland. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Russell McGregor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ‘New Bradfield’ scheme seeks to revive a nation-building ethos supposedly stifled by bureaucratic inertia. But there are good reasons the scheme never became a reality.Patrick White, PhD Candidate in History and Politics, James Cook UniversityRussell McGregor, Adjunct Professor of History, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1223862019-08-27T07:58:45Z2019-08-27T07:58:45ZTrust Me, I’m An Expert: Queensland still mystifies too many politicians but its needs are surprisingly simple<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289534/original/file-20190827-8874-1ezj42g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C5964%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are southern-born politicians talking about a state they essentially don't understand?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dust has well and truly settled on Scott Morrison’s surprise victory in this year’s federal election but opinion is still divided on exactly what happened in Queensland. </p>
<p>Why did Labor perform so poorly in the Sunshine State? Is Queensland an inherently conservative part of Australia? During the campaign, were southern-born politicians talking about a state they essentially didn’t understand? And – #Quexit jokes aside – is it time to redraw state lines in Australia, or even add new states?</p>
<p>Today on <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/podcasts/trust-me-podcast">Trust Me, I’m An Expert</a>, we bring you a discussion organised by The Conversation, recorded at Avid Reader bookshop in Brisbane and broadcast by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/regionalism,-politics-and-the-queensland-factor/11447502">Big Ideas</a> on the ABC’s RN. </p>
<p>In this chat, political scientist Anne Tiernan from Griffith University speaks with the University of Southern Queensland’s John Cole, who has research expertise in the history of Australian federation, regional development and regional communities.</p>
<p>Host Paul Barclay began by asking them to name the biggest misconceptions floating around about Queensland. </p>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="https://pca.st/VTv7">here</a> to listen to Trust Me, I’m An Expert on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear us on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Trust Me, I’m An Expert.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/trust-me-im-an-expert/id1290047736?mt=2&ign-mpt=uo%3D8"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3RydXN0LW1lLXBvZGNhc3QucnNz"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/trust-me-im-an-expert"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Trust-Me-Im-An-Expert-p1035757/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/trust-me-im-an-expert-Wa3E5A"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7myc7drbLJVaRitAMXLB7V"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
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<p><strong>Credits:</strong></p>
<p><em>Recording and editing by RN’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/regionalism,-politics-and-the-queensland-factor/11447502">Big Ideas</a>, additional editing by Sunanda Creagh.</em></p>
<p><strong>Additional audio</strong></p>
<p><em>Kindergarten by Unkle Ho, from <a href="https://www.elefanttraks.com/">Elefant Traks.</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifIw3wTeolE">CNN</a> report.</em></p>
<p><em>BBC <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyKXCa9KI0Q">report</a>.</em></p>
<h2>Images</h2>
<p><em>Shutterstock</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122386/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Two Queensland-based experts discuss what so many politicians and pundits get wrong about the Sunshine State – and what its citizens are crying out for.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1191672019-06-30T19:32:29Z2019-06-30T19:32:29ZThirty years on, the Fitzgerald Inquiry still looms large over Queensland politics<p>This week marks 30 years since the landmark Fitzgerald Inquiry report was handed down in Queensland.</p>
<p>It’s no overstatement to suggest the inquiry’s findings transformed Queensland’s political landscape more than any event in the past six decades. Such was the inquiry’s impact that the state’s politics are now typically characterised in “pre-” and “post-Fitzgerald” terms. </p>
<h2>‘Players in a vast drama’</h2>
<p>The Fitzgerald Inquiry – officially the <a href="http://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/about-the-ccc/Our-History">Commission of Inquiry</a> into Possible Illegal Activities and Associated Police Misconduct – was a watershed moment in exposing entrenched police and government corruption.</p>
<p>It’s regarded as having established <a href="http://transparency.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/QNISA_Report.pdf">important procedural precedents</a> for investigating official malfeasance. These included granting indemnities to witnesses for providing crucial evidence, and holding public hearings with open media access.</p>
<p>The inquiry was instigated by Queensland’s police minister and deputy premier, Bill Gunn, in May 1987. Gunn was prompted to act following media reports of barely restrained criminal activity in Brisbane “vice dens”, under the protection of police officers.</p>
<p>Most notable among this media coverage were reports by Courier-Mail journalist Phil Dickie, and the now renowned <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/the-moonlight-state---1987/2832198">Moonlight State</a> Four Corners episode, filed by ABC investigative reporter Chris Masters.</p>
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<p>Earlier Queensland investigations into illicit activities, such as the Sturgess Inquiry in 1985, had resulted in little change to police practices and were largely <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10349952.1990.11876735">overlooked by government</a>.</p>
<p>Gunn wanted an inquiry to root out the problem of corruption in police ranks, but expected the task to last only a matter of weeks. Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen <a href="http://netk.net.au/Whitton/Hillbilly35.asp">warned his deputy</a> that “you’ve got a tiger by the tail, and it’s going to bite you”.</p>
<p>Undeterred, Gunn eventually appointed little-known barrister and judge Gerald “Tony” Fitzgerald QC to head a Commission of Inquiry, established by <a href="https://medium.com/the-machinery-of-government/1987-queensland-cabinet-minutes-1dce95763fae">Order in Council</a> while Bjelke-Petersen was absent on a US trade mission.</p>
<p>Referred to colloquially as the “Fitzgerald Inquiry”, its twice-broadened terms of reference and later expanded powers of investigation helped lay bare a secretive political establishment and a sordid network of police graft (known as “The Joke”), depicted recently in unprecedented detail in Matthew Condon’s gripping <a href="https://www.uqp.uq.edu.au/Book.aspx/1227/Three%20Crooked%20Kings">trilogy</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/issues-that-swung-elections-the-dramatic-and-inglorious-fall-of-joh-bjelke-petersen-115141">Issues that swung elections: the dramatic and inglorious fall of Joh Bjelke-Petersen</a>
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<p>The inquiry’s hearings lasted almost two years, with startling evidence from 339 witnesses broadcast regularly to an incredulous public. Several senior police figures – including disgraced Police Commissioner Terry Lewis – and four former state government ministers were found to have engaged in corrupt conduct and were later jailed.</p>
<p>“Minister for Everything” Russ Hinze was also identified as corrupt, but died before facing court. At the very top, Bjelke-Petersen was charged with perjuring himself before the inquiry, but his 1991 trial was <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/players-in-a-vast-drama/story-e6freubo-1111113531404?sv=7d60de3363144b968d3a60ad3dfff7ca">abandoned with a hung jury</a>.</p>
<h2>Fitzgerald’s broad and immediate impact</h2>
<p>The Fitzgerald report has been described since as a “<a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Whats_On/Conferences/sl_conference/papers/copley#ftnref4">blueprint for accountability</a>” in Queensland. Previously, commitment to this principle had been sadly lacking.</p>
<p>The report, and Fitzgerald’s interim media briefings, were damning of not only a defective police leadership, but also a self-serving political culture of patronage and unaccountability. <a href="http://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/about-the-ccc/research-and-publications/publications/police/the-fitzgerald-inquiry-report-1987201389.pdf">It</a> made dozens of recommendations intended, in Fitzgerald’s words, “to bring about improved [administrative] structures and systems”. The bulk of these went to criminal justice oversight and electoral law reform.</p>
<p>In the slightly frenzied aftermath of Bjelke-Petersen’s drawn-out resignation in December 1987, new Premier Mike Ahern might have been expected to sideline such reform proposals and concentrate primarily on readying Brisbane to host World Expo ‘88.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281721/original/file-20190628-76722-1hxky8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281721/original/file-20190628-76722-1hxky8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281721/original/file-20190628-76722-1hxky8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281721/original/file-20190628-76722-1hxky8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281721/original/file-20190628-76722-1hxky8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1033&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281721/original/file-20190628-76722-1hxky8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1033&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281721/original/file-20190628-76722-1hxky8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1033&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As Queensland premier, Mike Ahern was determined to tie his government to Fitzgerald’s recommendations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet Ahern preemptively – and quite deliberately, as he later told Masters in a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/beyond-bethany/8953232">Four Corners interview</a> – tied his government to Fitzgerald’s recommendations “<a href="https://griffithreview.com/articles/moonlight-reflections/">lock, stock and barrel</a>”.</p>
<p>Ahern’s sincerity towards the accountability agenda was evident in late 1988 when he established the long called-for <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/vaults-of-history-unlocked-as-fitzgerald-era-committee-documents-released-20190404-p51apk.html">Public Accounts Committee</a> to scrutinise government expenditure.</p>
<p>Despite such commitments, the repercussions for the National Party from the inquiry’s findings, delivered in Fitzgerald’s report on July 3, 1989, were politically grave and probably unavoidable.</p>
<p>Shortly afterwards, and barely two months out from an election, the rattled Nationals jettisoned Ahern for Russell Cooper as leader. But they could not stem the popular tide turning against a government seen as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-28/25th-anniversay-qld-labor-winning-qld-election/5924592">lacking legitimate authority</a>.</p>
<p>After Wayne Goss was elected premier in December 1989, his government was quick to begin the electoral reform and public administration overhaul that marked its first term in office.</p>
<p>Goss’ win signalled “the end of the Bjelke-Petersen era”, as he put it on election night. He might have added, the “beginning of the Fitzgerald era”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281723/original/file-20190628-76701-ok700p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281723/original/file-20190628-76701-ok700p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281723/original/file-20190628-76701-ok700p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281723/original/file-20190628-76701-ok700p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281723/original/file-20190628-76701-ok700p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281723/original/file-20190628-76701-ok700p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281723/original/file-20190628-76701-ok700p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor leader Wayne Goss claims victory in the 1989 Queensland state election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Queensland ALP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An Electoral and Administrative Review Commission (EARC) and Criminal Justice Commission (CJC), major recommendations of the inquiry report, had been <a href="https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p69721/html/ch16.xhtml?referer=&page=20">legislated or instigated</a> under Ahern and then Cooper. In both cases, their implementation, staffing and resourcing were rounded out and given momentum by Goss.</p>
<p>Notably, Goss had a “fractious” relationship with the CJC’s inaugural commissioner, Sir Max Bingham, and <a href="https://queenslandspeaks.com.au/wayne-goss">revealed in interview</a> prior to his premature death his personal misgivings about the Commission’s operations while he was premier.</p>
<p>Several other “Fitzgerald reforms” and initiatives were promptly implemented by Goss’ administration, including freedom of information (FOI) provisions, MPs’ pecuniary interest registers, and the right to peaceful public assembly. It also dismantled the state’s system of electoral malapportionment (the long-derided “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-14/firth-gerrymandering-has-no-place-in-australia/5891592">gerrymander</a>”).</p>
<p>The Electoral Act 1992 confirmed an electoral redistribution based largely on the principle of “<a href="https://legalanswers.sl.nsw.gov.au/hot-topics-voting-and-elections/drawing-electoral-boundaries">one vote, one value</a>”, applying for the first time at the September 1992 state election – at which Goss was duly returned.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wayne-goss-a-modernising-leader-who-left-queensland-a-better-place-34018">Wayne Goss, a modernising leader who left Queensland a better place</a>
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</em>
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<p>Yet even under Goss’ leadership, the full extent of reforms mapped out in Fitzgerald’s report were not <a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/25520/1/25520_lauchs_2007005685.pdf">wholly realised</a>.</p>
<h2>Lasting legacy, or unfinished business?</h2>
<p>Changes to Queensland’s accountability systems since the Fitzgerald Inquiry have been significant, if not committed to consistently by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/queensland-ten-years-after-fitzgerald/3565808">ensuing administrations</a>.</p>
<p>Critics point to periodic regressions or <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/fitzgerald-reports-reforms-ignored/news-story/980acbd0131f7b3228da3f638fd91240?sv=14f7e42d759913f89dbf8996460b8d42">executive reluctance</a> to maintain the reform process. Inconsistently applied whistleblower protections and impediments to FOI access, among other transparency failings under governments on both sides of politics, have at times <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Janet_Ransley/publication/45109291_The_Fitzgerald_Symposium_an_Introduction/links/00b7d52dc53ff24ac8000000/The-Fitzgerald-Symposium-an-Introduction.pdf">dulled the shine</a> on the post-Fitzgerald integrity framework.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-07-29/fitzgerald-in-new-qld-corruption-warning/1370686">Fitzgerald himself</a> has seen fit on occasion to highlight Queensland politicians’ departures from a commitment to reform and accountability.</p>
<p>Campbell Newman found this to his cost when sustained criticism of his “undermining” of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-29/tony-fitzgerald-criticises-queensland-government/5557762">judiciary’s independence</a>, or harking back to Joh-era electoral <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-28/fitzgerald-queensland-must-put-a-stop-to-the-political-rot/6052310">pork-barrelling</a>, eroded his hold on executive authority.</p>
<p>Equally, the current Palaszczuk government’s changes to Queensland’s voting laws, opportunistically reverting to full preferential voting, were decried as being <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-21/electoral-law-ructions-in-the-queensland-parliament/9388770">against the intent</a> of Fitzgerald reforms.</p>
<p>An often-cited illustration of improved accountability is the example of Gordon Nuttall, the former Beattie government minister sacked then convicted in 2009 and 2010 on charges of <a href="http://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/corruption/past-investigations/gordon-nuttall/2009-gordon-nuttall-jailed-for-official-corruption">corruption and perjury</a>. He was sentenced to a total of 12 years in prison.</p>
<p>As Queensland political scientist Rae Wear eloquently <a href="https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:278669/UQ278669_OA.pdf">put it</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…denial [of corruption] of the kind practised by Bjelke-Petersen and Russ Hinze was no longer a viable option. Nor was the acceptance of cash in brown paper bags.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The CJC and its successor, the Crime and Misconduct Commission (now the Crime and Corruption Commission) – as well as New South Wales’ ICAC, established in 1988 – are held up as models for <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/a-watchdog-for-every-house/news-story/db171f9eb29a3b920a5566172de300ca">corruption watchdog agencies</a>, potentially including a future federal ICAC.</p>
<p>The inquiry’s report has become something of an article of faith within Queensland’s civic life. Noted Queensland historian Raymond Evans <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Whats_On/Conferences/sl_conference/papers/copley#ftnref4">described it</a> as the product of “the most remarkable Commission of Inquiry in Australia’s history”.</p>
<p>Indeed, elected members (including the current Labor Premier) have been known to brandish the report in parliament, manifesto-like, to cast aspersions of impropriety at their <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/tony-fitzgerald-to-meet-with-deputy-premier-jeff-seeney-in-private/news-story/09562ef891d2a1527b33bcb0649f85b8">opposite numbers</a>. This reflects the extent to which the Fitzgerald Inquiry became a millstone around the necks of conservative Queensland politicians at its inception over 30 years ago.</p>
<p>The taint of official corruption exposed by the inquiry, and the public’s faith in accountability reforms embodied in Fitzgerald’s report, can partly explain why the Nationals and Liberals (now LNP) have struggled to regain and hold office over the past three decades in Queensland.</p>
<p>But the accountability agenda is one that leaders on both sides of Queensland politics <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/a-year-of-necessary-change-mike-ahern-on-his-short-but-vital-premiership-20181220-p50ngj.html">have pursued before</a> and should commit to upholding still.</p>
<p><em>This article has been corrected. It originally stated three state government ministers were found to have engaged in corrupt conduct. That has been changed to four former state government ministers.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119167/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is affiliated with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>With its details of widespread corruption, the Fitzgerald report remains a cataclysmic event in Queensland politics, and still resonates today.Chris Salisbury, Research Assistant, School of Political Science & International Studies, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1155692019-04-18T01:06:18Z2019-04-18T01:06:18ZThe myth of ‘the Queensland voter’, Australia’s trust deficit, and the path to Indigenous recognition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269898/original/file-20190418-139113-1h4f6vj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C16%2C5439%2C3620&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Today we're asking: what Queensland seats are the ones to watch on election night? How to give Indigenous Australians a true voice in politics? And how can we improve trust in the political system?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today we’re bringing you a special discussion about the federal election that took place at the launch of a book of Conversation essays, <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/advancing-australia-paperback-softback">Advancing Australia: Ideas for a Better Country</a>.</p>
<p>Recorded at <a href="https://avidreader.com.au/">Avid Reader</a> bookshop in Brisbane on April 17, the discussion featured Indigenous academic lawyer <a href="https://experts.griffith.edu.au/academic/e.synot">Eddie Synot</a> from Griffith University and Griffith’s Dean of Engagement, Professor <a href="https://www.annetiernan.com.au/">Anne Tiernan</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1118434743626813440"}"></div></p>
<p>Eddie Synot is currently completing his PhD, taking a hard look at the liberal rights discourse of Indigenous recognition, and has also taught Indigenous Studies.</p>
<p>And political scientist Anne Tiernan has worked in and advised Australian governments at all levels, so she knows politics from the inside out.</p>
<p>Together with Liz Minchin, the Executive Editor of The Conversation Australia & New Zealand, the panel covered topics including the Queensland seats to watch on election night, how to give Indigenous Australians a true voice in politics, and how to improve trust in the political system.</p>
<p>Today’s episode was recorded by Michael Adams from Griffith University.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-advancing-australia-series-is-about-starting-a-conversation-about-what-really-matters-112395">Our Advancing Australia series is about starting a conversation about what really matters</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="https://pca.st/VTv7">here</a> to listen to Trust Me, I’m An Expert on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear us on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Trust Me, I’m An Expert.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/trust-me-im-an-expert/id1290047736?mt=2&ign-mpt=uo%3D8"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3RydXN0LW1lLXBvZGNhc3QucnNz"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/trust-me-im-an-expert"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Trust-Me-Im-An-Expert-p1035757/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/trust-me-im-an-expert-Wa3E5A"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7myc7drbLJVaRitAMXLB7V"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<hr>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p>Kindergarten by Unkle Ho, from <a href="https://www.elefanttraks.com/">Elefant Traks</a></p>
<p>Recording and editing by Michael Adams from Griffith University</p>
<h2>Additional reading</h2>
<p>Buy <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/advancing-australia-paperback-softback">Advancing Australia: Ideas for a Better Country </a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/federal-election">Griffith University’s special election coverage</a>, including <a href="https://regionalinnovationdatalab.shinyapps.io/Dashboard/">interactive maps</a> of Queensland’s 30 federal electorates</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uluru-statement-showed-how-to-give-first-nations-people-a-real-voice-now-its-time-for-action-110707">The Uluru statement showed how to give First Nations people a real voice – now it’s time for action</a> by Griffith University’s Eddie Synot</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-14-indigenous-words-for-money-on-our-new-50-cent-coin-113110">The 14 Indigenous words for money on our new 50 cent coin</a> by the University of Queensland’s Felicity Meakins</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-significance-of-the-treaty-of-waitangi-110982">Explainer: the significance of the Treaty of Waitangi</a> by the University of Waikato’s Sandra Morrison and Ingrid L M Huygens</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-uncertainty-how-the-2019-federal-election-might-bring-stability-at-last-to-australian-politics-111827">The end of uncertainty? How the 2019 federal election might bring stability at last to Australian politics</a> by University of Canberra’s Michelle Grattan</p>
<h2>Image</h2>
<p>Shutterstock</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115569/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Today, an election-themed episode about some of the biggest policy questions Australia faces, featuring Indigenous academic lawyer Eddie Synot and political scientist Anne Tiernan.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorLiz Minchin, Executive EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/931212018-03-22T19:09:05Z2018-03-22T19:09:05ZNew Queensland planning law puts transparency and accountability at risk<p>Recent <a href="https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/view/pdf/inforce/current/act-2016-025">changes in Queensland planning law</a> continue the shift toward a more commercially oriented, business-friendly planning framework that relegates accountability and public access and influence to a minimum.</p>
<p>This stands in contrast to a <a href="http://dilgp.qld.gov.au/resources/planning/directions-paper/better-planning-directions-paper.pdf">2015 government directions paper</a> for planning reform that declared:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The planning system should be open, transparent and accountable to ensure that both the community and industry can have confidence in the decisions that are made.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>When the then planning minister, Jackie Trad, introduced the Planning Act in 2016, <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2016/5/12/palaszczuk-government-delivers-better-planning-system-for-queensland">she identified</a> three reforms that supported transparency: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>restoring a rule that each party to planning litigation will ordinarily pay their own costs (undoing an amendment by the previous Newman government) </p></li>
<li><p>introducing a requirement that councils give reasons for their decisions </p></li>
<li><p>extending the public consultation period for new planning schemes by ten days. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>These reforms are laudable. But, when weighed against other trends entrenched in the law, they are relatively trivial. </p>
<p>The act, which took effect in mid-2017, makes development assessment an even more discretionary affair. It leaves community-based litigants with even less prospect of success in the <a href="http://www.courts.qld.gov.au/courts/planning-and-environment-court">Planning and Environment Court</a>. </p>
<h2>Councils given wide scope</h2>
<p>In Queensland, assessable development is classed as either code assessable development (if it is generally consistent with the local planning scheme) or impact assessable development (if it is less compatible or the impacts may be more significant). </p>
<p>Code assessable development must be assessed primarily against the applicable planning scheme – that is, the publicly notified and formally developed planning agenda for the area. </p>
<p>Under the changes, the local council must approve any code-assessable development application that complies with the relevant planning scheme codes. The council can also approve any non-compliant application if non-compliance can be resolved by imposing development conditions. </p>
<p>This is reasonably logical. Code-assessable development is supposed to be generally consistent with the planning scheme goals. The public had the opportunity to comment on the scheme in its drafting. </p>
<p>However, the Planning Act also allows decision-makers to approve development applications that do not comply with some or all of the planning scheme codes whether or not conditions will directly and adequately substitute for that lack of compliance. This means councils may approve applications whether or not they comply and with or without whatever conditions they like.</p>
<p>With that much flexibility in the system, why bother writing codes at all? Wasn’t the existence of the codes why particular developments were identified as code-assessable in the first place? Do we still agree these types of development should escape public scrutiny (code-assessable development is not publicly advertised) if they can depart from any planning scheme code that supposedly applies to them?</p>
<h2>Planning scheme no longer takes priority</h2>
<p>Impact assessment has also become a more discretionary exercise under the Planning Act. Councils must now assess impact assessable development against the entirety of their planning schemes, including the overall strategic objectives. They may also have regard to “any other relevant matter”. </p>
<p>Under the old law, councils were obliged to ensure their decisions did not conflict with their planning scheme unless there were “sufficient grounds to justify the decision”. This gave priority to the planning scheme. By implication, a departure from its terms would be the exception, not the norm. </p>
<p>The new act contains no requirement to give priority to the planning scheme. Nor does it require that any departure be justified on “sufficient grounds”. </p>
<p>The planning scheme ranks equally with “any other relevant matter” as a decision-making criterion. A “relevant matter” is not defined, except to state it does not include “a person’s personal circumstances, financial or otherwise”. </p>
<p>This change’s overall effect is that decision-makers are now expected to assess all aspects of development applications. They do so in the light of their planning instruments and any other relevant matters – including strategic economic considerations. They don’t need to attach any particular priority to the performance measures stated in their formal planning instruments.</p>
<h2>Fewer grounds for review</h2>
<p>Changes to the decision-making rules for impact assessable development will have a flow-on effect in the Planning and Environment Court. </p>
<p>In Queensland, the court holds a merits review power for such development. This means the court, on appeal, is empowered to make an entirely new decision in accordance with the applicable law and after considering the case’s facts.</p>
<p>However, the court generally respects a council’s decision unless that decision patently cut across an important planning strategy as expressed in its planning scheme or failed to properly consider another statutory decision-making criterion. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211265/original/file-20180320-80637-1ixqfdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211265/original/file-20180320-80637-1ixqfdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211265/original/file-20180320-80637-1ixqfdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211265/original/file-20180320-80637-1ixqfdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211265/original/file-20180320-80637-1ixqfdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211265/original/file-20180320-80637-1ixqfdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211265/original/file-20180320-80637-1ixqfdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211265/original/file-20180320-80637-1ixqfdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Councils’ wider discretion to approve developments leaves fewer grounds for overturning decisions on appeal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/288769136?src=JzzyzAhnqd_Sq5IxhyAXgw-1-1&size=huge_jpg">LittleRedDragon/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Under the changes, all decision-making criteria now rank equally. A council is free to decide there are relevant matters that justify it disregarding its planning scheme and provide a statement of its reasons. Because there is no longer any requirement to ensure those reasons sufficiently outweigh a primary requirement to comply with the planning scheme, the court is left with no criteria against which to test the council’s decision-making.</p>
<p>As the law now gives councils such wide discretion, they really cannot be held to account unless they follow incorrect statutory procedures or make a decision so “manifestly unreasonable” that no reasonable council could have made it.</p>
<h2>Over to the public …</h2>
<p>Together, these changes take discretionary decision-making to a new level of uncertainty. They undermine the certainty and accountability required of decision-makers when they apply planning schemes. </p>
<p>This raises questions about whether the Planning Act, despite laudable intentions, will – in practice – do more to compromise public participation, predictability, transparency and accountability than to advance it. The community will need to be vigilant to ensure this does not happen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philippa England does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Changes under Queensland’s recently instituted Planning Act give councils much more leeway in their decision-making, which makes it harder for appeals against decisions to succeed.Philippa England, Senior Lecturer, Griffith Law School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/917652018-02-14T04:24:26Z2018-02-14T04:24:26ZLiberals gain a Tasmanian long Senate term due to citizenship saga, while polling on Adani is mixed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206321/original/file-20180214-174982-hk2dnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Steve Martin has been sworn in to take Jacqui Lambie's place as a Tasmanian senator.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the 2016 federal election was a double dissolution, half of the 72 state senators were assigned long terms expiring in June 2022, while the other half received short terms expiring in June 2019. The four territory senators have terms tied to the House of Representatives.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/major-parties-to-allocate-long-and-short-senate-terms-using-order-of-election-method-63890">Major parties to allocate long and short Senate terms using order-of-election method</a>
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<p>In Tasmania, Labor won five of 12 Senate seats at the election, the Liberals four, the Greens two, and the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) one. The original long-term allocation was two Liberals, two Labor, one Green, and one JLN. However, <a href="https://twitter.com/smurray38/status/963359338051047424">the Senate</a> – with opposition from only the Greens and two crossbenchers – changed the Tasmanian Senate long terms to three Liberals, two Labor, and one Green. The Liberals gained a long term at the JLN’s expense.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanian-senate-result-5-labor-4-liberals-2-greens-1-lambie-63117">Tasmanian Senate result: 5 Labor, 4 Liberals, 2 Greens, 1 Lambie</a>
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<p>This outcome distorts the election result. Labor won five seats, but only gets two long terms, while the Liberals won four seats but get three long terms. </p>
<p>The Liberals will now be defending only one Tasmanian Senate seat at the next election. They are very likely to win at least two of six, so a Liberal gain is effectively locked in.</p>
<p>The motion passed by the Senate was a fix for the issue of disqualified long-term senators being replaced by someone who did not originally win a seat inheriting their term. Three of the terms altered are not controversial.</p>
<p>In Western Australia, the Greens’ number one Scott Ludlam was disqualified, and replaced by number three Jordon Steele-John, who originally inherited Ludlam’s long term. Now, the party’s number two, Rachel Siewert, will have a long term, while Steele-John receives a short term. </p>
<p>New South Wales and Tasmania are similar, following Fiona Nash and Stephen Parry’s disqualifications.</p>
<p>In late 2017, Lambie and Parry resigned as Tasmanian senators, as they held dual citizenships. On February 9, the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/martin-colbeck-sworn-in-to-upper-house">High Court declared</a> Liberal Richard Colbeck elected to replace Parry, and Steve Martin, the Jacqui Lambie Network’s number two, elected to replace Jacqui Lambie.</p>
<p>The Liberals’ gain of a long term in Tasmania was due to the high below-the-line voting in that state. The order-of-election method rewards parties that win full quotas (1/13 of the vote, or 7.7% at double dissolutions). On <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-TAS.htm">the original count</a>, Lambie had just over a full quota, but about 40% of her votes were below-the-line. Unlike ticket votes, below-the-line voters choose their preferences. </p>
<p>When Lambie was disqualified, Martin did not win a full quota, as some Lambie below-the-line voters did not have him as number two on their ticket. As a result, he lost his place in the top six using the order-of-election method.</p>
<p>Labor won 33.6% of the Tasmanian Senate vote to 32.5% for the Liberals. But Labor had more below-the-line votes than the Liberals, with Labor’s Lisa Singh winning from number six on the ticket. </p>
<p>Counting ticket votes and the votes for the number one candidate on each major party’s ticket, the Liberals had 27.2% and Labor 25.8%. People who vote below the line for a major party’s number one candidate are more likely to follow the party ticket.</p>
<p>As a result, the new order-of-election method produces the following results: Liberal number one, Labor number one, Greens number one, Liberal number two, Labor number two, Liberal number three. Thus the Liberals win three long terms from Tasmania.</p>
<p>Ironically, this distortion was caused by the below-the-line votes. If only ticket votes had been used, Martin would have received a long term.</p>
<p>The High Court has ruled that Martin’s Devonport mayoralty does not disqualify him from sitting in the Senate. This decision means people in local government do not need to resign before contesting federal elections.</p>
<p>Lambie expelled Martin from her party as he refused to resign his seat and allow her to retake it. Martin will sit as an independent.</p>
<p>In another Section 44 case, the High Court <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-13/skye-kakoschke-moore-high-court-throws-out-bid-senate/9431730">ruled on Tuesday</a> that SA-BEST’s disqualified senator Skye Kakoschke-Moore cannot replace herself, and SA-BEST’s number four, Tim Storer, will win that seat – even though he has since been expelled from the party.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-feeney-gone-greens-sniff-a-chance-in-batman-and-has-xenophons-bubble-burst-in-south-australia-91059">With Feeney gone, Greens sniff a chance in Batman, and has Xenophon's bubble burst in South Australia?</a>
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<h2>Essential 54-46 to Labor</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Essential-Report_130218-1.pdf">This week’s Essential</a>, conducted February 8-11 from a sample of 1,026, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, unchanged since last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (up one), 10% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down two), and 4% Nick Xenophon Team (up one).</p>
<p>Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval was -3, up four points since January. Bill Shorten’s net approval was -13, also up four.</p>
<p>38% thought cutting company taxes would simply deliver business A$50 billion more in profits, and would not result in higher wages. 32% thought cutting company taxes would attract more investment, create jobs, and increase wages. By 72-10, voters would approve of forcing businesses to pass on a proportion of tax cuts as pay rises to their workers.</p>
<p>By 58-25, voters thought the Adani coal mine would create jobs that Queensland badly needs. However, voters also thought it would undermine tourism jobs (53-22), divert renewable energy investment (51-25), and undermine action on climate change (52-26). Queenslanders were more likely to agree with the first statement and less likely to agree with the last three statements.</p>
<h2>Queensland Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition, 52-48 to state Labor</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/02/10/yougov-galaxy-52-48-federal-coalition-queensland/">Queensland Galaxy poll</a>, conducted February 7-8 from a sample of 860, gave the federal Coalition a 52-48 lead in Queensland, a one-point gain for the Coalition since August. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (up four), 32% Labor (steady), 10% Greens (up three), and 9% One Nation (down three).</p>
<p>The swing to federal Labor in this poll since the 2016 election is just two points, which is a disappointing result for the party. Labor would not win many additional seats in Queensland if this poll was replicated at a federal election.</p>
<p>41% supported and 41% opposed the development of the Adani coal mine. In southeast Queensland, oppose led 43-38, while support led in the rest of Queensland by 45-37.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/02/12/yougov-galaxy-52-48-state-labor-queensland/">state voting intentions</a>, Labor led by 52-48, a one-point gain for Labor since the November election. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up two), 36% LNP (up two), 10% Greens (steady) and 10% One Nation (down four). </p>
<p>One Nation’s drop is worse than it looks, as it only contested 61 of 93 seats at the election. However, this poll would have asked for statewide support.</p>
<p>44% approved of Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (up three since early November), and 38% disapproved (down four), for a net approval of +6. Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington had initial ratings of 29% approve, 25% disapprove.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91765/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The reallocation is short and long Senate terms for Tasmania distorts the 2016 election result.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/878472017-12-08T03:04:35Z2017-12-08T03:04:35ZQueensland finally has a government, but the path ahead for both major parties looks rocky<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/198243/original/file-20171208-11331-cgymw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This is not the clear-cut election result Annastacia Palaszczuk and Labor hoped for.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Glenn Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After going to the polls on November 25, Queenslanders finally have a state election result as Liberal National Party leader Tim Nicholls <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-08/queensland-election-tim-nicholls-concedes-defeat/9239930">conceded defeat on Friday</a>.</p>
<p>Following a four-week campaign, votes were counted for almost a fortnight until Annastacia Palaszczuk’s Labor Party was confirmed the victor. Palaszczuk is the first female premier to win back-to-back elections. In 2015, she’d become the first woman at state or federal level to lead her party to government from opposition.</p>
<p>But it’s not the clear-cut result Palaszczuk desired. Labor appears to have won 48 seats in the 93-member parliament to the LNP’s 39. This leaves Palaszczuk’s returned government with a slim majority and a diverse crossbench.</p>
<h2>A complex contest</h2>
<p>With a record field of candidates in an expanded number of electorates – many with redrawn boundaries – this shaped as a complicated election. Adding to its unpredictability was <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-one-nation-on-the-march-a-change-to-compulsory-voting-might-backfire-on-labor-86923">the reintroduction</a> after 25 years of compulsory preferential voting.</p>
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<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-one-nation-on-the-march-a-change-to-compulsory-voting-might-backfire-on-labor-86923">With One Nation on the march, a change to compulsory voting might backfire on Labor</a></strong></em></p>
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<p>While two-party-preferred swings were generally not as large as at the last two state elections, overall figures showed a fragmented statewide vote. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/results/">More than 30%</a> gave their first preferences to minor parties and independents. This exceeded the One Nation-driven protest vote <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensland_state_election,_1998">in 1998</a>.</p>
<p>This continues the trend of a declining primary vote for the major parties. Combined with compulsory preferencing, several electorate contests duly developed into three- or even four-horse races, extending the time needed to correctly distribute preferences and declare results. Some seats were decided only after the arrival of postal votes, up to ten days after the polling date.</p>
<p>Like the previous Queensland and federal elections, a close and protracted count left the government in extended caretaker mode. Voters in Queensland and the rest of Australia may need to accustom themselves to a new norm of tight, drawn-out contests, where party leaders’ election night speeches might be obsolete.</p>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>Labor went into the election with a notional seat count of 48 following the redistribution. Despite a 2% decline in its statewide vote, it emerges with little change in its electoral stocks. </p>
<p>Gains in the state’s southeast corner at the LNP’s expense offset a few seat losses in central and north Queensland, where persistent unemployment has been a worry.</p>
<p>To the government’s relief, every cabinet member held their seat. Deputy Premier Jackie Trad survived one of the stronger challenges, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/sbri/">a 10% two-party-preferred swing</a> to the Greens in South Brisbane. Brisbane’s inner suburbs, as in other state capitals, are now highly vulnerable to a rising green tide.</p>
<p>The LNP suffered a negative swing of almost 8% – and even higher in parts of the southeast. High-profile casualties included shadow frontbenchers Scott Emerson, Ian Walker, Tracey Davis and Andrew Cripps in the north falling victim to erratic preference flows. </p>
<p>Emerson has the distinction of losing the newly created seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/maiw/">Maiwar</a> in inner Brisbane to Queensland’s first elected Greens MP, Michael Berkman.</p>
<p>In other firsts, Labor’s new member for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/cook/">Cook</a> in far-north Queensland, Cynthia Liu, is the first Torres Strait Islander elected to any Australian parliament. Innovation Minister Leanne Enoch becomes the state’s first Indigenous MP to be returned at an election. </p>
<p>One Nation’s Stephen Andrew, who defeated veteran Labor MP Jim Pearce in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/mira/">Mirani</a> in central Queensland, becomes the first descendent of South Sea Islander labourers to enter state parliament.</p>
<h2>Decisive issues</h2>
<p>Besides bread-and-butter issues of job creation, power prices and transport infrastructure, neither Palaszczuk nor Nicholls could escape the dominant themes of this election. The proposed Adani coal mine project animated voters in different parts of the state for different reasons, as did the spoiler role that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation was presumed to play. </p>
<p>Together, these factors reinforced an impression of “two Queenslands” in contention during the campaign.</p>
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<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/adani-aside-north-queensland-voters-care-about-crime-and-cost-of-living-86847">Adani aside, North Queensland voters care about crime and cost of living</a></strong></em></p>
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<p>Protests against the Adani mine’s environmental impact – and questions over its long-term economic benefit to regional communities – featured regularly once the election was called. Palaszczuk succeeded in defusing the issue to some extent early in the campaign with an abrupt declaration that she would <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-04/palaszczuks-adani-loan-veto-decision-jeopardises-mine-project/9118054">veto federal infrastructure funding</a> for the mine’s construction.</p>
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<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adani-may-still-get-its-government-loan-86926">Why Adani may still get its government loan</a></strong></em></p>
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<p>A feared backlash in places of regional discontent and high youth unemployment, like Townsville, didn’t entirely materialise, with Labor incumbents holding seats against expectations. But these concerns, in tandem with uncertainty over the Adani project, saw Labor lose <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/bung/">Bundaberg</a> and nearly lose the traditionally Labor-voting <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/bung/">Rockhampton</a> to independent candidate and former mayor Margaret Strelow.</p>
<p>The LNP’s position on supporting the Adani mine with public funds, and Nicholls’ prevarication over dealing with One Nation, appear to have hurt the party in Brisbane especially. But so too did Labor reminding voters of Nicholls’ role as treasurer in the Newman government. </p>
<p>As the election neared, Nicholls was swamped by constant questioning about cosying up to One Nation.</p>
<p>While always difficult to quantify, the federal Coalition government’s woes amid the same-sex marriage debate and citizenship fiasco likely did the LNP few favours.</p>
<h2>Role of the minor parties</h2>
<p>The Greens and One Nation capitalised on the dip in major party support, gaining significant vote shares of 10% and almost 14% respectively. However, each party won only a single seat.</p>
<p>Critically, both parties stripped valuable primary votes from Labor and the LNP, especially the latter’s vote in the regions. This will furrow the brows of federal Coalition MPs through this term of government. For good measure, One Nation preferences likely helped unseat some LNP MPs in the southeast.</p>
<p>The party’s state leader, Steve Dickson, lost out to the LNP in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/bude/">Buderim</a>, while Senate outcast Malcolm Roberts didn’t present a serious threat to Labor in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/ipsw/">Ipswich</a>. </p>
<p>Despite its failings, One Nation attracted more than 20% in the seats it contested and finished runner-up in two dozen of them, perhaps largely down to Hanson’s constant presence throughout the campaign.</p>
<p>Katter’s Australian Party (KAP), though standing candidates in only ten seats and not making much impact on the campaign, might have done best of all the minor parties. Its primary vote improved to more than 2%, gaining it another seat in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/hinc/">Hinchinbrook</a> on Labor and One Nation preferences. </p>
<p>KAP’s targeted approach might prove unwelcome news for the federal Coalition, which can expect similar levels of focused disaffection from conservative regional voters elsewhere. But a fragmenting primary vote spells trouble for all the major parties.</p>
<h2>What next for Queensland?</h2>
<p>Queensland now enters its first fixed-term period of government. The next election is due on October 31, 2020, with four-year terms following that.</p>
<p>Labor holds only 13 of 51 seats outside the Greater Brisbane area. With all seats decided, factional negotiations will now unfold to determine the make-up of Palaszczuk’s new cabinet. It’s fair to assume it will be Brisbane-centric. </p>
<p>With such a concentration of government MPs in the capital, Palaszczuk’s team will presumably clock up many kilometres – and spend some political capital – reassuring the regions they’re not forgotten.</p>
<p>In the wake of an underwhelming result for the LNP, Nicholls announced he is stepping down as party leader and won’t contest a leadership ballot early next week. The likes of David Crisafulli or Tim Mander, or potentially Deb Frecklington, loom as Nicholls’ likely successors. </p>
<p>Party insiders have complained that the election result proves the marriage between the formerly separate Liberal and National parties in Queensland has failed and should be broken up. </p>
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<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-liberals-and-nationals-have-long-had-an-uneasy-cohabitation-and-now-should-consider-divorce-88165">Queensland Liberals and Nationals have long had an uneasy cohabitation, and now should consider divorce</a></strong></em></p>
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<p>The road ahead for both major parties will be anything but easy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is a Research Associate with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>Voters in Queensland and the rest of Australia may need to accustom themselves to a new norm of tight, drawn-out contests, where party leaders’ election night speeches might be obsolete.Chris Salisbury, Lecturer in Australian Studies, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/881652017-11-29T19:11:09Z2017-11-29T19:11:09ZQueensland Liberals and Nationals have long had an uneasy cohabitation, and now should consider divorce<p>There can be no doubt that in matters political Queensland is different from the rest of Australia. </p>
<p>It is the only state that has a <a href="https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/voters-and-voting/voting-system">single house of parliament</a>. It is the only state that has a <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au">single council</a> for its capital city. It is the only state in which the Country (and later National) Party has been the dominant force on the non-Labor side of politics and, for a time in the 1980s, held government in its own right.</p>
<p>The rhythm of Queensland politics has been for one party to hold power for long stretches of time. Labor was in government from 1932 to 1957, losing government that year as the <a href="https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:356593">Labor Party split</a>. The Country Party held power, first in coalition with the Liberals and then in its own right, from 1957 to 1989. Subsequently, Labor was in office, except for a short time in 1996, from 1989 to 2012.</p>
<p>Queensland voters, at least in recent times, also seem to be more volatile in their voting habits, perhaps more resembling Canada than other parts of Australia. In Sydney, for example, there are electorates that are so rusted on to a political party that electing a member from another party is unthinkable.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-result-while-decided-on-state-issues-adds-to-turnbulls-burdens-88135">Queensland result, while decided on state issues, adds to Turnbull's burdens</a>
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<p>This does not appear to be the case in Queensland, including Brisbane. In 2012, the Liberal National Party (LNP), led by Campbell Newman, won a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N0tg8rcXW4">stunning victory</a>, claiming 44 seats with swings as high as 21%. In other states, many of these seats would be rusted-on Labor. </p>
<p>Given Queensland’s electoral history, one would have expected that the 2012 election would be the prelude to an extended term of LNP government. Yet, in 2015, the LNP <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/QldElect">lost 34 seats and government</a>. As an example, the seat of Ipswich, which had swung some 20% to the LNP in 2012, had almost an exact same swing to Labor in 2015.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most extraordinary thing about the 2017 election has been the way in which Brisbane has become almost exclusively Labor. The LNP holds fewer than half-a-dozen seats. While this may be in part a consequence of how <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/queensland-election/queensland-election-one-nation-preference-game-cost-lnp-all-hope/news-story/1ea49b6fae3b1efb5606274790c45d1f">One Nation allocated its preferences</a>, this only confirms the weakness of the LNP in Brisbane.</p>
<h2>The birth of the LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland LNP came into being in 2008 with the marriage of the Queensland divisions of the National Party and the Liberal Party. This was at a time when the non-Labor side of politics had, except for a short period mentioned above, been out of power for nearly 20 years. </p>
<p>Although the Nationals were clearly the senior partner, the president of the new party acquired full voting rights with the federal Liberals. Even more curious is the fact that those from the “Liberal” side of the party have tended to dominate the leadership.</p>
<p>In other states, where the Liberals are the senior party, as at the Commonwealth level, the two parties have favoured coalition rather than amalgamation (cohabitation rather than marriage). </p>
<p>That the Nationals and the Liberals should have come together at all seems in some ways astonishing, given the cavalier way in which <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Sir-Joh-was-loathed-and-loved/2005/04/23/1114152360448.html">Joh Bjelke-Petersen</a> treated the Liberals back in the 1980s. </p>
<p>In days gone by, the Queensland Liberals were quite unlike other Liberal parties in Australia. Being always the junior member of the partnership meant that the party was much more of a “liberal” party, based in urban Brisbane. </p>
<p>Populism and conservatism were the property of the National Party. It is worth recalling that it was the Liberal Party that <a href="http://www.onenation.com.au/history">disendorsed</a> Pauline Hanson as a candidate in the 1996 election.</p>
<p>It may have made good sense in electoral terms for the National Party and the Liberal Party to amalgamate in 2008. It appears to have delivered in 2012. But it has failed to deliver a second time. I think that there are some good reasons for this.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-election-one-nation-dominates-twitter-debate-in-the-final-weeks-88024">Queensland election: One Nation dominates Twitter debate in the final weeks</a>
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<p>The amalgamation followed the logic that a unified anti-Labor Party would be more likely to defeat Labor. However, this decision was made at a time when a political reconfiguration was occurring in which the old right-left, business-unions divisions were becoming less important. </p>
<p>In its place has been the emergence of a new politics based around more symbolic matters and in which progressives increasingly find themselves at odds with conservatives on a whole range of matters, from the environment to same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>The LNP tethered together progressives and conservatives. In Newman it had a leader who was a good liberal reformer, rather reminiscent of Nick Greiner in New South Wales. Perhaps Newman should have studied what happened to Greiner, who barely scraped back into power in the <a href="http://elections.uwa.edu.au/elecdetail.lasso?keyvalue=763">1991 NSW election</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, populism has never really gone away in Queensland. Labor Premier <a href="http://www.mrcf.com.au/company/person/hon-peter-beattie">Peter Beattie</a> had a touch of Joh about him.</p>
<h2>Uneasy bedfellows</h2>
<p>What I am suggesting is that the creation of the LNP was backward- rather than forward-looking. In a state in which populism is an established tradition, it was always going to be difficult to get the conservative and progressive horses to run together in the same direction. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bobkatter.com.au">Bob Katter</a> and Hanson have been beneficiaries of the inability of the LNP to express its inner populism. Remember that John Howard neutralised Hanson by stealing her thunder. Cohabitation was a hindrance to liberals and conservatives alike.</p>
<p>But the primary beneficiary of this state of affairs has been the Labor Party. I think it can be argued that the too rigid nature of the LNP has led to a fracturing of the non-Labor side of politics. If the Liberals and Nationals had simply continued to cohabit they may have been able to have the flexibility required for electoral success.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Melleuish receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Academic Advisory Board of the Menzies Research Centre.</span></em></p>For the Queensland LNP, the divisions between the progressive and conservative forces within the party may hamper its political prospects.Gregory Melleuish, Professor, School of Humanities and Social Inquiry, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/873152017-11-16T05:21:40Z2017-11-16T05:21:40ZFactCheck: has Queensland Labor created ‘more than four times’ as many jobs as the LNP?<blockquote>
<p>… we have created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government. <strong>– Queensland Labor <a href="https://www.queenslandlabor.org/media/20213/alpq_skilling_queenslanders_for_work_policy_document_final_.pdf">Work Ready Queensland</a> policy document, November 2, 2017.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>With unemployment in Queensland running above the national average – more than double the national average in some parts of the state – promises and claims about jobs growth are front and centre of the Labor Party campaign. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.queenslandlabor.org/media/20213/alpq_skilling_queenslanders_for_work_policy_document_final_.pdf">policy document</a> released at the start of the election campaign, Queensland Labor said it had “created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government”.</p>
<p>Are those numbers correct? And can Labor fairly claim to have “created” those jobs?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>When asked for sources to support the statement, a spokesperson for Annastacia Palaszczuk pointed The Conversation to Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Sep%202017?OpenDocument">trend data</a> for total employed persons from March 2012 to September 2017.</p>
<p>In summary, the spokesperson said that between March 2012 (when Campbell Newman was elected) and January 2015 (when Palaszczuk was elected), job numbers rose by 29,000. This was compared to an increase of 122,500 jobs between January 2015 and September 2017.</p>
<p>The spokesperson noted that 29,000 jobs is “less than one-quarter of 122,500”.</p>
<p>But calculating those numbers is not that simple.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Queensland Labor said it had “created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government”.</p>
<p>There is no <em>definitive</em> way to calculate this number. On some measures, the statement is correct. On other measures, it’s an overstatement.</p>
<p>Job numbers increased by somewhere between 117,380 and 122,500 during the Palaszczuk government’s term. That’s between 3.4 and 4.2 times the jobs growth under the Newman government.</p>
<p>Whichever way you look at it, it’s fair to say that employment increased significantly more during the Palaszczuk government’s term than the Newman government’s.</p>
<p>Can Labor claim to have “created” those jobs?</p>
<p>No, that’s not entirely fair. State government policy is only one of many factors that determine employment dynamics. Changes in employment levels are never solely due to the efforts of any one government.</p>
<h2>Did Labor ‘create’ 122,500 jobs under Palaszczuk?</h2>
<p>We can see how many jobs have been created in Queensland in recent years by looking at <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Sep%202017?OpenDocument">Australian Bureau of Statistics labour force data</a>.</p>
<p>The data show that more jobs were created under the Labor government led by Annastacia Palaszczuk than under the Liberal National Party (LNP) government led by Campbell Newman (and in which Tim Nicholls was treasurer).</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/r1FX8/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="500"></iframe>
<p>Exactly how many more jobs were created? Well, that’s not quite as simple to calculate as you might think. </p>
<p>Australian Bureau of Statistics labour force data are available on a monthly basis. To see how employment levels have changed, we look at employment figures in the month <em>before</em> the start of a government, and in the last month of that government.</p>
<p>Newman took office on March 26, 2012. So, March 2012 can be considered the last month before the beginning of the Newman LNP government.</p>
<p>But it’s slightly trickier to match the monthly data against the point when the Newman government ended and the Palaszczuk government began. That’s because we’re working with monthly data, and Palaszczuk took office in the middle of a month – on February 14, 2015.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk’s office told The Conversation they considered January 2015 as the end of the Newman government. That’s consistent with the fact that the election was held on January 31, 2015.</p>
<p>But it also means all the jobs created in the two weeks in February 2015 before Palaszczuk took office are attributed to the Labor government. </p>
<p>So, in the context of looking at monthly employment data, should we could consider February 2015, or January 2015, to be the last month before the beginning of the Palaszczuk government?</p>
<p>In my view, there are arguments for and against both of these options. So I’m going to show you the numbers based on three scenarios:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>we attribute jobs growth in February 2015 to the LNP government;</p></li>
<li><p>we attribute jobs growth in February 2015 to the Labor government; and</p></li>
<li><p>we attribute 50% of the jobs growth to the LNP government, and 50% to Labor.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The numbers presented are until September 2017.</p>
<p>The table shows the outcome of each scenario and the total change in employment. That’s the difference in the total number of people employed at the end and start of the government. </p>
<p><iframe id="oMtDq" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oMtDq/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Scenario #1: Labor’s claim is incorrect</h2>
<p>If we attribute the jobs growth for February 2015 to the LNP, then Labor’s claim is incorrect. Using this measure, total employment increased by 117,380 under the Palaszczuk government, compared to 34,170 under the Newman government.</p>
<p>That means that 3.4 more times jobs were created under Labor than the LNP – not “more than four times”.</p>
<h2>Scenario #2: Labor’s claim is verified</h2>
<p>If we attribute the jobs growth for February 2015 to Labor, then the party’s statement is verified: total employment increased by 122,550 under the Palaszczuk government, compared to an increase of 28,990 jobs under the Newman government. </p>
<p>In this scenario, 4.2 more times jobs were created under Labor than LNP – so it is “more than four times”, as Queensland Labor said.</p>
<h2>Scenario #3: Labor’s claim is a slight overstatement</h2>
<p>If we split the difference – with half of February 2015 allocated to each government – then the data show an increase of 119,960 jobs under the Palaszczuk government, compared to an increase of 31,580 jobs under the Newman government. </p>
<p>That amounts to 3.8 times more jobs under Palaszczuk – below Labor’s original “more than four times” claim, albeit by an economically small margin.</p>
<p>So, what’s the bottom line? </p>
<p>On some measures, the statement is numerically correct. On others, it is a slight overstatement. Either way you look at it, it’s fair to say that employment increased significantly more during the term of the Palaszczuk government.</p>
<h2>Can Queensland Labor claim to have ‘created’ these jobs?</h2>
<p>No, that’s not entirely fair. State government policy is only one of many factors that determine employment dynamics in a given period of time. Changes in employment levels are never solely due to the efforts of any one government.</p>
<p>Other factors that influence employment levels include (and are certainly not limited to): </p>
<ul>
<li><p>federal policies;</p></li>
<li><p>economic conditions in trading partner countries;</p></li>
<li><p>changes in the international price of commodities; and </p></li>
<li><p>variations in the level of the interest rate and/or the exchange rate.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It is difficult to establish with certainty the relative contribution to employment growth of each of these factors. <strong>– Fabrizio Carmignani</strong></p>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>This is a sound and balanced FactCheck. </p>
<p>Whichever approach to measurement is used, the verdict – that total Queensland employment has grown more rapidly under Labor than under the Liberal National Party – is correct.</p>
<p>I agree with the author that there is some difficulty in knowing precisely when to “start the clock” on the Queensland Labor government. </p>
<p>In my view, treating the whole month of February 2015 as part of Labor’s term (as Queensland Labor did in its policy document) is the least convincing approach, as Labor did not begin to govern until the second half of that month. But I commend the author’s thoroughness in showing the numerical consequences of the different approaches in their three scenarios.</p>
<p>The author is correct in pointing out that no government can claim sole responsibility for any change in employment during its term. The political cycle rarely aligns with the economic cycle. I am sceptical about whether any government deserves the full credit – or blame – for economic developments that happen on its watch.</p>
<p>This is especially true of state governments, which are often at the mercy of larger forces. The author rightly mentions the wide array of national and international factors that reach far beyond Queensland’s borders. <strong>– Joshua Healy</strong></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>The Conversation is fact-checking the Queensland election. If you see a ‘fact’ you’d like checked, let us know by sending a note via <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>, <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> or <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a>. The Conversation <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversation-is-fact-checking-the-queensland-election-and-we-want-to-hear-from-you-86779">thanks James Cook University</a> for its support.</strong></p>
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<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit is the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87315/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise linear continuous model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Josh Healy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland Labor claimed it has ‘created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government’. Is that right? We asked the experts.Fabrizio Carmignani, Professor, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/868422017-11-08T19:15:44Z2017-11-08T19:15:44ZIf Queenslanders vote on economic issues the Labor government is looking good<p>The idea that the economy matters (probably more than anything else) in deciding electoral destinies is backed by a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379413000589">significant body of research</a>. When voters perceive that the economy is strong, they are more inclined to vote for the incumbent. </p>
<p>There are some things for the Queensland government, led by Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk, to crow about ahead of the election. Economic growth is stronger in Queensland than in the rest of Australia, and the net operating surplus (the difference between revenue and expenses) is now <a href="https://s3.treasury.qld.gov.au/files/Report-on-State-Finances-2016-17-FINAL-FINAL-no-signatures.pdf">A$2.8bn</a>, the largest since 2005-06. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the rate of employment growth in Queensland has been weaker than in the rest of the country, and the improvement in state finances is to some extent due to temporary factors, such as a surge in mining royalties. </p>
<p>Queensland public sector borrowing in 2016-17 has also been <a href="https://s3.treasury.qld.gov.au/files/Report-on-State-Finances-2016-17-FINAL-FINAL-no-signatures.pdf">contained to 111% of revenue</a>. This is significantly below projections of 130% in the 2014-15 budget.</p>
<p>But in the absence of more “revenue surprises”, the net operating surplus is <a href="https://s3.budget.qld.gov.au/budget/papers/2/3-Fiscal-strategy-and-outlook.pdf">expected</a> to decline, and government borrowing is projected to increase to A$81.1bn by 2020-21. </p>
<h2>How does Queensland compare?</h2>
<p>The following chart provides a snapshot of Queensland economic outcomes over time. The data shows annualised percentage growth rates over periods corresponding to the Palaszuzck government and its two predecessors (the two Anna Bligh governments are collapsed into one period).</p>
<p><iframe id="NtcW6" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NtcW6/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The data suggests that economic outcomes are better (i.e. faster growth in Gross State Product and employment) during the Palaszuzck government than during the two previous governments. The only exception is the rate of full time employment growth, which was faster under the Bligh government.</p>
<p>The Palaszuzck government has also seen good news on the unemployment rate, which <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Sep%202017?OpenDocument">recently dropped</a> below 6% for the first time since November 2013. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Sep%202017?OpenDocument">September Labour Force Survey</a>, the trend unemployment rate in Queensland has declined by approximately 0.5 points (from 6.4% to the current 5.9%) since Palaszuzck replaced Campbell Newman.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adani-may-still-get-its-government-loan-86926">Why Adani may still get its government loan</a></em> </p>
<hr>
<p>But the positive outcomes under the the Palaszuzck government might reflect trends that are outside the state government’s control. Over the period since Palaszuzck took power, for example, the unemployment rate in Australia has declined by 0.6 points, from 6.1% to 5.5%. This is why it pays to compare these indicators to other states.</p>
<p>The next chart shows the differences in growth rates between Queensland and the rest of Australia. Positive values mean that Queensland’s outcomes are superior, in a given period, to those elsewhere in Australia. The reverse is true for negative values.</p>
<p><iframe id="k7iHe" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/k7iHe/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We can see that in the periods under the Bligh and Newman governments Queensland was outperformed by the rest of Australia. Again, the only exception is full time employment growth during the Bligh government.</p>
<p>The economic performance during the Palaszuzck government is comparatively stronger in terms of GSP growth, which is more robust in Queensland than elsewhere in Australia. Liquefied natural gas investments and shipments significantly contributed to this result.</p>
<p>However, similarly to what we observed during the two previous governments, employment has grown more slowly under the Palaszuzck government than in the rest of the country. </p>
<p>This is likely due to two complementary dynamics. Queensland’s economic growth has been driven by low labour-intensive sectors (such as energy), so that further investments only have a marginal impact on employment. At the same time, hiring in other, more labour intensive sectors has been affected by the reluctance of businesses to invest without a sustained pickup in household demand. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/palaszczuk-must-grapple-with-one-nation-and-history-in-unpredictable-queensland-election-86389">Palaszczuk must grapple with One Nation, and history, in unpredictable Queensland election</a></em> </p>
<hr>
<p>Inflation is another relevant outcome as it can be an indicator of unstable economic conditions. </p>
<p>The higher the inflation rate, the more value is eroded for those who hold their wealth in bonds, or whose incomes is not automatically adjusted to the inflation rate. </p>
<p>While high inflation has costs, low and declining inflation (e.g. inflation below 2% and declining) might also be a concern as it could be a sign of a stagnant economy. In fact, most countries <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/inflation-target.html">target</a> an inflation rate between 2% and 3%. </p>
<p>While inflation targeting is the purview of the Reserve Bank of Australia, state governments can still influence it through actions that affect prices of widely consumed goods and services. The Queensland government’s <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/community/cost-of-living-support/home-energy-emergency-assistance-scheme">electricity affordability package</a> is an example of such type of intervention. </p>
<p>Comparing <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6401.0Sep%202017?OpenDocument">data between Brisbane and Australia</a>, we can see that under the Palaszczuk government, inflation increased very moderately, from 1.4% to 1.5%. This increase was smaller than the increase observed at the national level (from 1.3% to 1.8%). </p>
<p>During the Newman government, inflation in Brisbane increased modestly (from 1.3% to 1.4%) at the same time it declined nationally. </p>
<p>During the Bligh period, inflation dropped both in Brisbane and nationally, reflecting the decreased pace of economic activity in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. However, the decrease in Brisbane was significantly larger than in the rest of the country.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-economic-value-of-the-great-barrier-reef-its-priceless-80061">What's the economic value of the Great Barrier Reef? It's priceless</a>
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</em>
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<p>In the end, while state finances reflect the quality of economic management, the purpose of economic policy is not to balance the budget. In fact, the budget is just a tool that governments should use to improve real economic outcomes.</p>
<p>For instance, an obvious way to improve state finances is to cut government expenditure. However, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592615300242">research shows</a> that a 1% decrease in Queensland government expenditure results in a loss of approximately 9,500 jobs and a 0.3% decline in gross state product. </p>
<p>Therefore, the assessment of government’s economic performance cannot be limited to a discussion of if and when the budget is going to be balanced and by how much expenditure needs to be reduced. Instead, performance should also be considered in terms of outcomes.</p>
<p>Of course, economic outcomes, such as growth and employment, are determined by a combination of factors, some of which are outside the control of the government (e.g. international shocks or the price of primary commodities). </p>
<p>This means that for a fair assessment, we should not just look at the level of growth and employment at a given point in time, but instead compare growth and employment in Queensland over time and against other states. </p>
<p>While there is scope for more analysis and discussion in the weeks to come, it appears that during the Palaszuzck government, Queensland has achieved better economic outcomes than during the previous two governments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86842/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise linear continuous model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p>The Palaszczuk government has achieved better outcomes than the last two Queensland governments.Fabrizio Carmignani, Professor, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/863892017-10-29T08:50:48Z2017-10-29T08:50:48ZPalaszczuk must grapple with One Nation, and history, in unpredictable Queensland election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192318/original/file-20171029-13331-1rhj2ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Annastacia Palaszczuk is seeking a second term as premier when the state goes to the polls on November 25.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Darren England</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland’s state election <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-29/queensland-election-date-set-for-november-25/9095036">has been called</a> for November 25. The outcome is, at this stage, anyone’s guess.</p>
<p>Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk cited <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/queensland/labor-dumps-controversial-mp-rick-williams-ahead-of-election-20171027-p4ywos.html">her disendorsement</a> of sitting MP Rick Williams, and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-07/bill-byrne-quits-queensland-parliament-due-to-illness/9026260">the resignation</a> for health reasons of minister Bill Byrne, as triggers for an election months before it was due.</p>
<p>Williams’ subsequent resignation from the ALP to contest his seat as an independent leaves the Labor minority government and Liberal National Party opposition both holding 41 seats in the 89-seat state parliament.</p>
<p>Polling has typically had the government <a href="http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0bcfa7c63baa8e8a742d5efe9f71aa2b?width=1024">slightly ahead</a> in two-party-preferred terms. But narrowing poll margins and the major parties’ shrinking primary vote share point to a tight result – and potentially <a href="https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-for-queensland-expect-more-nuance-than-chaos-37038">another hung parliament</a>.</p>
<p>In this scenario, the election “winner” could be forced into tricky negotiations with minor parties to form government. Yet <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/labor-says-no-deal-to-one-nation-coalition-after-next-state-election-20170220-gugxgi.html">Palaszczuk</a> and Opposition Leader <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/lnp-convention-party-votes-down-push-to-withdraw-from-paris-climate-accord/news-story/a4463d0d5054b46ea926930240461443">Tim Nicholls</a> have both pledged not to govern in coalition with the likes of One Nation and Bob Katter’s Australian Party. So where will that leave the make-up of Queensland’s next government?</p>
<h2>A typical contest?</h2>
<p>On one hand, this election looks set to be a conventional state contest, fought over economic, employment and cost-of-living issues.</p>
<p>With ink still drying on the federal government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-government-unveils-national-energy-guarantee-experts-react-85823">new energy policy</a>, the main parties in Queensland have all made recent announcements playing to voters’ worries of rising power bills.</p>
<p>Campaign attention is expected to focus on regional voters’ concerns – especially in the many marginal seats – over local employment opportunities and industry downturns. Memories are still fresh in and around Townsville of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/queensland-nickel-refinery-in-crisis-timeline/7239040">painful job losses</a> from the closure of the Yabulu nickel refinery.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, attracting votes – and Greens preferences – in the state’s southeast corner will be critical. Population pressures have given rise to transport infrastructure projects (like Brisbane’s <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/early-work-starts-on-cross-river-rail-but-it-could-still-get-dumped-20170829-p4yvm2.html">Cross River Rail</a>) and school building proposals that, in some cases, have become political footballs.</p>
<h2>Adani and voting changes add to unpredictability</h2>
<p>On the other hand, this election shapes as unpredictable and intriguing.</p>
<p>Uncertainty looms over key economic projects – principally the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-we-still-pursuing-the-adani-carmichael-mine-85100">Adani Carmichael coalmine</a> and state-federal <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-1-billion-loan-to-adani-is-ripe-for-a-high-court-challenge-85077">financing arrangements</a> for the proposal.</p>
<p>The Adani mine has dominated Queensland’s political landscape – and divided community opinion – like few other recent issues. Party positions on the mine’s approval could prove decisive in many areas.</p>
<p>Similarly, the state and federal governments’ management of the Great Barrier Reef has contributed to volatility in public sentiment.</p>
<p>This, along with the Adani proposal and the state government’s inability to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-19/queensland-parliament-tree-clearing-laws-fail-unesco-fears/7765214">reinstate tree-clearing restrictions</a>, has been an environmental sore point for Queensland’s left-dominated ALP caucus. Negative public reaction has even fed speculation that Deputy Premier Jackie Trad could <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/greens-set-to-oust-deputy-premier-jackie-trad-in-south-brisbane/news-story/440b86d94d3b79d74b7738a5f56ad6eb">face a realistic challenge</a> from the Greens in her South Brisbane seat.</p>
<p>Adding to the unpredictability is a handful of “unknowns”. These include the introduction of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-states-have-gone-that-way-but-fixed-four-year-federal-terms-are-unlikely-56674">four-year fixed parliamentary terms</a>, a redrawing of the state’s electoral map from 89 <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld-redistribution-2017/">to 93 seats</a>, and the reintroduction of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-21/compulsory-prefential-voting-returns-qld-parliament-passes-bill/7348172">compulsory preferential voting</a>. The latter especially makes predicting results in most electorates fraught with difficulty.</p>
<p>Even the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/extraordinary-100000-new-voters-join-electoral-roll-boosting-hopes-for-yes-campaign-20170825-gy466w.html">swelling of numbers</a> on the electoral roll (primarily of younger voters) as a result of the national same-sex marriage survey adds an unpredictable element.</p>
<h2>The One Nation question mark</h2>
<p>On top of all this is the presence of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.</p>
<p>Since <a href="https://theconversation.com/defiant-hanson-will-test-a-coalition-government-61985">bursting back</a> onto the political stage at last year’s federal election, One Nation’s popularity in its “home” state has again seen the major parties in Queensland and federally jumping at shadows.</p>
<p>It did not go unnoticed when Pauline Hanson <a href="https://www.qt.com.au/news/hanson-gets-show-society-project-started-with-89-m/3232818/">recently announced</a> federal-government-funded projects in Ipswich and elsewhere. This <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/barnaby-joyce-warns-pm-that-queensland-mps-are-on-warpath-over-favours-to-one-nation/news-story/cd2a8cda48443e39fcb92d86f1116871">reportedly prompted</a> a furious rebuke from federal Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce.</p>
<p>One Nation even enters this election defending a seat, after <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-13/lnp-mp-steve-dickson-defects-to-one-nation/8180502">the defection</a> of former LNP MP Steve Dickson in January this year.</p>
<p>The party’s wildcard quality was made more stark after the announcement that Malcolm Roberts – having had his Senate election ruled invalid by the High Court – <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-malcolm-roberts-hits-campaign-trail-in-ipswich/news-story/09d5241ee45764a533ee3275dc1cb374">would stand</a> in the seat of Ipswich at the state election.</p>
<p>One Nation has variously polled between 10% and 15% across Queensland, even exceeding 20% in some of the 50-plus seats in which it will field candidates.</p>
<p>Regional areas in particular, where high unemployment has fed voter dissatisfaction with the major parties at state and federal levels, is where One Nation’s presence will be felt most. Yet it is uncertain how preferences from the party’s voters will play out in different seats.</p>
<h2>What to expect in the campaign</h2>
<p>The Palaszczuk government will highlight its high-profile job-creating projects in Brisbane’s <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0ahUKEwjj85jmipXXAhWGG5QKHRJdBkMQFggyMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Ffuture-brisbane%2Ffuture-brisbane-3b-queens-wharf-to-supply-quarter-of-citys-new-jobs%2Fnews-story%2F54bfe588ae8e39f88cc9fc6d0b76915b&usg=AOvVaw3x-Axl-kRN27ubvfg_nXR_">Queen’s Wharf development</a> and <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/about/newsroom/north-queensland-stadium">Townsville’s new sports stadium</a>. Recent jobs growth figures and statewide unemployment falling <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Main+Features1Sep%202017?OpenDocument">below 6%</a> have provided the government with positive economic news.</p>
<p>The LNP will focus on government missteps, such as <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/commuters-hit-by-frequent-shutdowns-on-our-creaky-understaffed-rail-networks/news-story/7f2c2ac4eba473e65398ead429079e37">train system malfunctions</a> and ministerial blunders. It will also pursue a message of the Labor government as indecisive and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-15/queensland-government-review-waste-dumping-interstate/8810508">“do nothing”</a>, after ordering numerous reviews and overseeing a stubbornly high unemployment rate relative to the national average.</p>
<p>Voters will be asked whether Nicholls has done enough as opposition leader <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicholls-toppling-springborg-lays-bare-the-still-uneasy-marriage-of-queenslands-liberals-and-nationals-58993">in the last 18 months</a> to warrant a crack at the top job. </p>
<p>Labor will be keen to remind voters of Nicholls’ role as treasurer in the Newman government, particularly with the electorally poisonous public asset sale agenda and his supposed unpopularity in bush areas.</p>
<p>Ultimately, Palaszcuk will look to benefit from incumbency and her lead as preferred premier. Her Labor team will also benefit from an incumbent federal Coalition government that is dealing with the fallout from High Court rulings <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-high-court-sticks-to-the-letter-of-the-law-on-the-citizenship-seven-85324">that ousted</a> the Nationals’ leader and deputy from parliament. </p>
<p>History may be against Palaszczuk, though: she would be the first female Australian state premier to defend an election win.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is a Research Associate with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>Whichever major party ‘wins’ the Queensland election will likely be forced into tricky negotiations with minor parties to form government.Chris Salisbury, Lecturer in Australian Studies, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/645452016-09-15T20:15:27Z2016-09-15T20:15:27ZFashion police: new Queensland laws continue Australia’s misguided war on bikies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137839/original/image-20160915-4963-d85d9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Queensland's new anti-bikie laws propose to ban the wearing of all gang colours in public.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Queensland government has <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2016/9/13/australias-toughest-laws-to-tackle-serious-organised-crime">revealed proposed new laws</a> to combat bikies. This is in response to Labor’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-29/queensland-election-labor-to-set-up-organised-crime-inquiry/6054864">election promise</a> to review the former Newman government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-scrapping-of-queenslands-anti-bikie-laws-mean-for-organised-crime-56976">anti-bikie laws</a>. The new legislation proposes to ban the wearing of <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2016/8/28/bikies-to-be-banned-from-wearing-colours-in-public">all gang colours in public</a>, marking an Australian first.</p>
<p>But what will these laws achieve? And is the threat real or perceived?</p>
<h2>Are bikies public enemy number one?</h2>
<p>Bikie gangs lend themselves to being presented as at the forefront of serious and organised criminal activity throughout Australia. They are easily identifiable to the general public and have committed some <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/bikie-killed-in-sydney-airport-brawl-20090322-95xc.html">brazen displays of public violence</a>. </p>
<p>But in reality, the case against the bikies is often overstated by law enforcement agencies and governments, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-battle-to-win-hearts-and-minds-in-queenslands-bikie-war-23283">pounced on by the media as great copy</a>.</p>
<p>The Queensland Police Service (QPS) claims bikies commit about 0.6% of <a href="https://www.police.qld.gov.au/programs/acglfaq.htm">all crime in the state</a>. The <a href="http://www.justice.qld.gov.au/taskforce-into-organised-crime">Queensland Taskforce on Organised Crime Legislation</a> said bikies commit less than 1% of overall reported crime. In regard to media portrayals of the bikies, the taskforce noted:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The amplification of the role of OMCGs [outlaw motorcycle gangs] in criminal activity across Queensland has, in the face of the actual statistics, arguably distorted the public’s perception of the actual extent of the threat.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is illustrated in Right to Information arrest figures I obtained in August 2016. These showed there had been 2,573 people arrested on 8,582 charges since the commencement of the Queensland bikie blitz in October 2013. Yet Mick Niland, the head of the QPS’ anti-bikie taskforce, <a href="http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/crime-court/queensland-law-society-president-bill-potts-says-police-will-struggle-to-convict-hells-angels-after-mass-ride/news-story/d6bdf8c695ff9e1bbeedd038e9b7bca4">recently admitted</a> arrests of actual bikies were much lower than that (925 bikies on 3,347 charges since October 2013).</p>
<p>The organised crime taskforce noted that many of those arrests attributed to bikie gangs are in fact not related.</p>
<h2>Spreading across Australia</h2>
<p>In 2015 <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-31/victorian-government-introduces-new-anti-consorting-bill/6736646">Victoria</a> enacted new laws to deal with bikie gangs. <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/sa-to-keep-the-bikie-legislation-queensland-is-scrapping-20160406-go05fa.html">South Australia</a> has introduced laws heavily based on Queensland’s existing model, despite their <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-scrapping-of-queenslands-anti-bikie-laws-mean-for-organised-crime-56976">lack of success</a>. </p>
<p>New South Wales already has consorting laws it uses to police bikie gangs. The NSW Ombudsman has conducted two reviews on the use of this legislation – one in <a href="https://www.ombo.nsw.gov.au/news-and-publications/publications/reports/legislative-reviews/consorting-issues-paper-review-of-the-use-of-the-consorting-provisions-by-the-nsw-police-force-division-7-part-3a-of-the-crimes-act-1900">2014</a> and another in <a href="https://www.ombo.nsw.gov.au/news-and-publications/publications/reports/legislative-reviews/the-consorting-law-report-on-the-operation-of-part-3a,-division-7-of-the-crimes-act-1900-april-2016">2016</a>. Both found shortcomings in the way police were using the legislation.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ombo.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/34709/The-consorting-law-report-on-the-operation-of-Part-3A,-Division-7-of-the-Crimes-Act-1900-April-2016.pdf">The 2016 review</a> recommended the use of the consorting laws be focused only on serious or organised crime, and prohibited from being used to tackle minor or nuisance offending.</p>
<p>The proposed Queensland law does not necessarily focus on consorting for the purpose of criminal activity. It says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the person’s association with the other person need not have a purpose related to criminal activity.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This would seem at odds with the <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2016/9/13/australias-toughest-laws-to-tackle-serious-organised-crime">government’s claims</a> that the laws:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… would enable law enforcement agencies to tackle all forms of serious organised crime … by focusing on people’s criminal activity, rather than a focus on any individual group.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2016/8/30/new-and-comprehensive-laws-to-target-serious-organised-crime">Queensland’s new laws</a> draw heavily on the NSW consorting laws. They include several provisions, including consorting offences, a ban on clubhouses, anti-fortification requirements, and public safety orders.</p>
<p>Perhaps most controversially they ban the wearing of gang colours in public. Until now colours had only been banned in licensed venues in some states. </p>
<p>The previous Queensland state government <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/outlaw-colours-will-stay-legal-for-now-20120428-1xs7j.html">rejected such a move</a>. Then-premier Campbell Newman said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We don’t go after people because of the clothes they wear, the tattoo they may have, the way their wear their hair. We go after the people who break the law, who are a threat to society.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But banning colours is <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2016/8/28/bikies-to-be-banned-from-wearing-colours-in-public">now seen as a way</a> to combat organised crime.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137122/original/image-20160909-13353-1q1g7ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137122/original/image-20160909-13353-1q1g7ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137122/original/image-20160909-13353-1q1g7ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137122/original/image-20160909-13353-1q1g7ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137122/original/image-20160909-13353-1q1g7ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137122/original/image-20160909-13353-1q1g7ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137122/original/image-20160909-13353-1q1g7ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137122/original/image-20160909-13353-1q1g7ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proposed new Queensland bikie laws.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Police already have the tools they need</h2>
<p>The QPS and other Australian law-enforcement agencies already had powerful legislative tools to combat criminal organisations prior to enacting <a href="https://theconversation.com/criminalising-conversations-australias-damaging-love-affair-with-consorting-laws-53633">consorting-specific legislation</a>. </p>
<p>Queensland’s <a href="https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/LEGISLTN/ACTS/2009/09AC053.pdf">Criminal Organisations Act</a> provides for making declarations and control orders for preventing and disrupting the activities of organisations involved in serious criminal activity, and of their members, former members, prospective members and associates. </p>
<p>Ironically, this legislation was introduced by the then-Labor government in 2009, and was <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/government-wrestles-with-bikie-association-laws-20120601-1zmrt.html">opposed by the LNP opposition</a> both before and after its introduction. Its criticisms included:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This bill is a repugnant attack on the rights and liberties of individuals.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The QPS has made only one application under it to have an organised declared a criminal organisation: the Gold Coast chapter of the Finks bikie gang. The application and the legislation successfully <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/finks-lose-legal-battle-20130313-2g1t3.html">withstood a High Court challenge</a>. </p>
<p>At the time, QPS Assistant Commissioner Mike Condon <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/finks-lose-legal-battle-20130313-2g1t3.html">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Where there is sufficient evidence we will take action.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Despite this in 2014, the QPS <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/police-drop-bid-to-have-finks-declared-criminal-organisation/story-fnihsrf2-1226854083518">withdrew is application</a> regarding the Finks. The reasons for withdrawal were suppressed. And no other evidence has ever been presented to make an application against any other gang in Queensland.</p>
<h2>What will the proposed laws achieve?</h2>
<p>It may well be difficult for the minority Labor government in Queensland to have these laws passed. <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/qld-bikie-laws-create-deep-kap-concerns/news-story/0e21caf4b954f7406dfc267332b34e3b">Minor parties</a> and <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/peter-wellington-cautious-over-queensland-bikie-laws-20160829-gr3eph.html">independents</a> have expressed concern with them. </p>
<p>This reflects to some degree a state of policy paralysis the government finds itself in. It has insufficient numbers in parliament to pass legislation without crossbench support.</p>
<p>The devil is in the detail. The government says even if the new laws are passed, the existing laws will remain in place for two years – possibly until after the next state election. This will allow the government to claim it did “something” about the unpopular existing laws, but that by bringing in its own laws it is also tough on crime.</p>
<p>In any case, like those that preceded them, these proposed laws may just end up being window-dressing. Existing offences and investigative powers are more than sufficient to deal with the threat of organised crime and criminal elements in the bikies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Goldsworthy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What will Queensland’s new laws to combat the bikie ‘menace’ actually achieve?Terry Goldsworthy, Assistant Professor in Criminology, Bond UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.