Any mention of the ‘R’ word can trigger anxiety. But not all definitions of recession are the same, and not being in one doesn’t necessarily mean people aren’t feeling economic pain.
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Articles sur Recession
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We should be cautious about the risk of a recession in the US, but we aren’t guaranteed one. At any rate, Australia’s own fortunes are much more tied to the Chinese economy and commodity markets.
Individual Australians are in a recession, with per-person income slipping since mid-2022. Interest rates are falling overseas. So forget rate hikes: the RBA’s next move is likely to be down.
In normal times, a boost in government spending would boost inflation. The budget papers show these are not normal times.
New Zealand’s history of inflation, recessions and unemployment offer clues to what might happen next. Coupled with global events, the outlook is not promising.
With voter confidence already low, the National-led coalition will have difficulty fulfilling pre-election promises while delivering a prudent budget in May.
The country is crying out for more investment, and more devolution would help deliver it.
The best measure of living standards – real household disposable income per capita – has been going backwards for two years. It’s the biggest dive in living standards in half a century.
There are a number of reasons why there’s such a significant gap between aggregate economic numbers and the perceptions of everyday people.
The real question in the minds of many economists is what the trend in inflation will be going forward, and when interest rates will begin to fall and bring relief to Canadians.
Market expectations for rate cuts sooner rather than later have been dashed but some economies remain in danger of recession.
We should be sceptical of anyone claiming a recession is just around the corner.
So you thought raising interest rates brought down inflation? The reality is a bit more debatable.
Beneath the obvious policy differences between Labour and National lies a tacit consensus on fundamental economic settings. Until that changes, political choice will be constrained.
Why is monetary policy outside the realm of politics? What are the social ramifications of our current monetary policy system? What alternatives exist?
Six charts explain the Australian economy. Three of the most disturbing show living standards going backwards, productivity collapsing and household saving falling to a 15-year low.
The latest labor figures are less encouraging than they might seem.
The world’s central banks face a range of dilemmas, not least whether high inflation – and therefore high interest rates – will become permanent.
Even a week ago we couldn’t have predicted this. But after good news from the US, our Reserve Bank now has a chance to cement low unemployment while controlling inflation – without more rate rises.
The good news includes a return to real wage growth and a restrained increase in unemployment. The bad news includes even higher home prices and a per-capita recession.
Les contributeurs les plus fréquents
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Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Senior Lecturer in Economics, The Open University
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Associate Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University
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Associate Professor of Markets, Public Policy and Law, Boston University
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Program Director, Economic Policy, Grattan Institute
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Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra
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Honorary Research Fellow, City Political Economy Research Centre, City St George's, University of London
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Lecturer in Economics, Monash University
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Associate Professor of Economics, West Virginia University
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Associate Professor of Economics, Pace University
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School of Social Sciences, Monash University
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Professor & Greenbaum/Ferguson/NJAR Endowed Chair in Real Estate Policy, Monmouth University
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Professor of Finance and Business Economics, University of Southern California
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Professor of Economics, UNSW Sydney
