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Articles sur Uncertainty

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The sum is greater than the parts when researchers build an ensemble from multiple coordinated but independent models. Matteo Chinazzi

Pooling multiple models during COVID-19 pandemic provided more reliable projections about an uncertain future

Policymakers rely on models during uncertain times to figure out how their choices could affect the future. Over the pandemic, an ensemble of many COVID-19 models outperformed any one alone.
Workers take on side hustles not just for the money, but also to compensate for limited control in their traditional jobs. Jeff Greenberg via Universal Images Group/Getty Images

Americans are taking more control over their work lives – because they have to

‘Career portfolioing’ is a trend where people assemble different sources of income, such as side gigs, to give them a measure of independence from employers who provide little job security.
Clinical guidelines can change when new research provides contradictory findings. Thomas Barwick/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Medical guidelines that embrace the humility of uncertainty could help doctors choose treatments with more research evidence behind them

How doctors care for their patients is highly influenced by clinical guidelines. Recommendations based on anecdotal experience or poor data can harm patients.
So much uncertainty around risk can make it extra hard to decide what to do. Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Pandemic decision-making is difficult and exhausting – here’s the psychology that explains why

People tend to dislike uncertainty and risk – two things that are hard to avoid completely during a pandemic. That’s part of why it can feel especially draining to make even small decisions these days.
Kids figure out who’s trustworthy as they learn about the world. Sandro Di Carlo Darsa/PhotoAlto Agency RF Collections via Getty Images

Trust comes when you admit what you don’t know – lessons from child development research

People often try to seem confident and certain in their message so it will be trusted and acted upon. But when information is in flux, research suggests you should be open about what you don’t know.
Using social media increases our natural tendency to compare ourselves. How does this affect our well-being? (Shutterstock)

How social media can crush your self-esteem

Comparing ourselves to people who are worse off than we are on social media should make us feel better. The opposite is true.
In ‘Don’t Look Up,’ scientists played by Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence watch with horror as people willfully ignore warnings of an impending disaster. Entertainment Pictures/Alamy Stock Photo

‘Don’t Look Up’: Hollywood’s primer on climate denial illustrates 5 myths that fuel rejection of science

Just because something isn’t 100% certain doesn’t mean you ignore it, and other lessons from two researchers who study the problem of science denial.

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