tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/zero-emission-vehicles-110801/articleszero-emission vehicles – La Conversation2022-03-31T20:42:08Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795642022-03-31T20:42:08Z2022-03-31T20:42:08ZThe political opportunities and challenges of Canada’s new $9.1B climate plan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455594/original/file-20220331-15-s9h2ky.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C31%2C2968%2C1962&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Minister of Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson, left, and Minister of the Environment Steven Guilbeault announce Canada's new climate plan at a press conference on March 29, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the release of Ottawa’s new “<a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/climate-plan-overview/emissions-reduction-2030.html">2030 Emissions Reduction Plan</a>” this week, Canada has entered a new phase of climate policy. The 270-page document lays out the path the federal government will take to meet <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Canada%20First/Canada%27s%20Enhanced%20NDC%20Submission1_FINAL%20EN.pdf">Canada’s Paris Agreement target</a> to cut emissions by 40 per cent to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. </p>
<p>The new climate plan is the first to be produced under the new Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, which mandates that governments show how they will meet emissions targets and regularly report on their progress. The plan seeks to launch Canada’s economic transformation en route to net zero in 2050 through a combination of $9.1 billion in public spending and regulatory measures. </p>
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<p>For three decades, Canada has failed to meet any of its emissions targets. So, it’s high time the country started doing what it takes to meet our target. But there will be both political upsides and downsides in this new era of climate policy.</p>
<h2>What’s different this time?</h2>
<p>This is Canada’s 10th climate plan since 1990, and only the second to offer a plausible strategy to meet a national target. The first eight plans varied greatly in detail — it’s hard to say whether some even qualify as plans — but all either exaggerated <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/citizens-guide-to-climate-success/49D99FBCBD6FCACD5F3D58A7ED80882D">how effective popular policies like subsidies would be</a>, fudged expected <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article-abstract/7/4/92/14430/The-Road-not-Taken-Climate-Change-Policy-in-Canada?redirectedFrom=fulltext">reliance on international credits</a> or <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/pan-canadian-framework/climate-change-plan.html">left a gap for future plans</a> and didn’t even pretend the target would be met.</p>
<p>In December 2020, the federal government released a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/climate-plan-overview/healthy-environment-healthy-economy.html">strengthened climate plan</a>. It offered a credible package of policies, centred around a steadily increasing carbon price, to meet a 30 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, Canada’s initial Paris Agreement target. </p>
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<img alt="Burnt trees and ash litter the ground under an orange smoke-filled sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455596/original/file-20220331-21-qsti8y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455596/original/file-20220331-21-qsti8y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455596/original/file-20220331-21-qsti8y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455596/original/file-20220331-21-qsti8y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455596/original/file-20220331-21-qsti8y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455596/original/file-20220331-21-qsti8y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455596/original/file-20220331-21-qsti8y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Thick smoke fills the air at a property destroyed by wildfire near Kamloops, B.C. in August 2021. Climate change increases the risk of hot, dry weather that can fuel wildfires. Extreme fire weather has become more common with climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
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<p>That precedent was locked in by the 2021 <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-19.3/FullText.html">Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act</a>, which requires the government to provide regular updates on how it will meet a series of targets, spaced out every five years, as well as on implementation and progress toward those targets. </p>
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<p>The new plan focuses on Canada’s updated 2030 target, setting out specific measures, backed by an implementation schedule and a summary of economic modelling underpinning emissions projections. Headlines have highlighted the additional $9.1 billion Ottawa will spend to cut greenhouse gas emissions, including support for consumer purchases of electric vehicles, homeowner investments in energy-efficient upgrades, like heat pumps, and expanding the network of vehicle charging stations. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-climate-emergency-warrants-a-strong-mandate-on-zero-emission-vehicles-from-the-federal-government-168922">The climate emergency warrants a strong mandate on zero-emission vehicles from the federal government</a>
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<p>These expenditures are helpful and undoubtedly popular, but the heavy lifting in reducing Canada’s emissions will be done by the legally binding measures in the Emissions Reduction Plan: an increasing carbon price, mandates for sale of zero-emission vehicles, a clean electricity standard, methane regulations and a politically contentious cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector. </p>
<p>Critically, the plan is only the first step. All these promises remain to be implemented. Spending commitments must be delivered in future budgets, and regulatory measures must be developed and passed into law. </p>
<h2>A new baseline for partisan debate</h2>
<p>The good news is that the mandate to produce a credible plan to meet Canada’s target has the potential to set a new baseline for partisan debate. Opposition parties can and must hold government to account by asking tough questions about policies and emissions projections. </p>
<p>They might start by inquiring about the apparent gap between the modelling of a 36 per cent reduction and the claim of hitting the 40 per cent target, and how the particular cap on oil and gas emissions was chosen. </p>
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<p>But they, in turn, should expect to be held to the same standard in future elections and government. It’s no longer enough to pretend that some vague alternative approach can magically meet the same target without costs. Show us your numbers, too!</p>
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<img alt="Close up of curved pipes with one labelled Bitumen Blend." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455597/original/file-20220331-13-1784w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455597/original/file-20220331-13-1784w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455597/original/file-20220331-13-1784w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455597/original/file-20220331-13-1784w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455597/original/file-20220331-13-1784w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455597/original/file-20220331-13-1784w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455597/original/file-20220331-13-1784w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Between 1990 and 2019, Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions increased by 24.1 per cent, mainly due to increased emissions from oil and gas extraction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<h2>Industry lobbying looms</h2>
<p>The bad news is that regulatory development proceeds beyond the limelight of national elections. All those regulatory measures — from an electric vehicle sales mandate to a clean electricity standard — that form the backbone of the new plan still need to be developed and finalized. That’s typically a multi-step process, starting with a discussion paper, followed by opportunity for public comments, release of a draft regulation, another opportunity for comments and finally adoption of a legally binding standard by cabinet. </p>
<p>Many of the relevant documents are highly technical. They’re not announced by the prime minister on TV, or covered by broadcast or print media — except the business pages. But there is a lot at stake and a legion of devils in all those technical details. Even as public attention wanes, the industries facing regulatory compliance costs remain highly engaged, at every opportunity making their case for concessions, delays and subsidies. </p>
<p>We’ll get a first signal on subsidies in the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2022/03/government-of-canada-announces-date-of-budget-2022.html">forthcoming federal budget</a>. Although Canada has committed to phasing out fossil fuel subsidies by 2023, the new climate plan previews delivery of tax credits for carbon capture and sequestration that the oil and gas industry has been pushing for.</p>
<p>The risk of delay is also clear. For some measures, including the emissions cap on the oil and gas sector and new methane regulations, the new climate plan offers a schedule only for the next step — a discussion paper — but no indication when the regulation will be finalized. That’s a big worry: the discussion paper for the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/managing-pollution/energy-production/fuel-regulations/clean-fuel-standard/about.html">clean fuel standard</a>, scheduled to be finalized this spring, was published six years ago.</p>
<p>It’s hard to fathom Canada reducing its emissions by 40 per cent to 45 per cent in just eight years unless the necessary regulations are finalized in the next one to three years without being watered down.</p>
<h2>Domestic and international offsets</h2>
<p>Discussion of the proposed emissions cap on the oil and gas sector is especially hazy. Although the new plan proposes a 31 per cent cut below 2005 levels, it flags the possibility of “time-limited” reliance on domestic and international carbon offsets. Regulated industries welcome offsets as an opportunity to reduce their compliance costs by paying for reductions in other, unregulated sectors or other countries.</p>
<p>However, the track record of domestic offsets is far from reassuring, as Nic Rivers, Mark Jaccard and I have <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-carbon-offsets-1.5951395">previously warned</a>. The reference to international offsets suggests a back-door departure from federal ministers’ insistence since 2015 that Canada will meet its Paris Agreement target by domestic measures alone. </p>
<p>The good news is that there’s plenty of detail here and an opportunity for vigorous questions in Parliament. The worry is that it can all still go off the rails as we move from releasing a plan with great fanfare to less visible and more technical policy development. </p>
<p>A lot is resting on the required 2023 and 2025 updates, third-party evaluations by the Net-Zero Advisory Body and the Canadian Climate Institute, and members of Parliament’s willingness to dig into the details.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Harrison receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. She is a member of the expert advisory panel on mitigation of the Canadian Climate Institute.</span></em></p>Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions decreased by only one per cent between 2005 and 2019. A new climate plan charts the path to deep cuts in carbon emissions in only eight years.Kathryn Harrison, Professor of Political Science, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1689222021-10-14T17:38:41Z2021-10-14T17:38:41ZThe climate emergency warrants a strong mandate on zero-emission vehicles from the federal government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426259/original/file-20211013-21-ienmmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C40%2C5422%2C3587&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Visitors look at a Peugeot E Legend concept car on display at the Auto show in Paris, France, in 2018, where all-electric vehicles were among the stars of the show. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Christophe Ena) </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>To prevent the worst of climate change, we must increasingly buy zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Transportation accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions, and so our cars, SUVs, pick-ups and vans must be battery electric, plug-in hybrid electric or hydrogen fuel cell.</p>
<p>Fortunately, the auto industry already sells ZEVS. Unfortunately, the auto industry keeps convincing governments that an ambitious transition to ZEVs is impossible. This sad situation might change in Canada, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-federal-election-made-big-strides-for-climate-and-the-environment-168918">only if our politicians are as climate sincere as they claimed in the recent federal election</a>. During the campaign, all major parties, including the Conservatives, made ambitious ZEV sales commitments. </p>
<p>The most obvious policy is the ZEV mandate, a requirement that automakers achieve minimum percentage ZEV sales in specific years. <a href="https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/changementsclimatiques/vze/index-en.htm">Québec</a> and <a href="https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020EMPR0031-001416">British Columbia</a> already have ZEV mandates. But the minority Liberal government must adopt it nationwide to fulfil its election promise of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2021/06/building-a-green-economy-government-of-canada-to-require-100-of-car-and-passenger-truck-sales-be-zero-emission-by-2035-in-canada.html">50 per cent sales by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2035</a>.</p>
<p>The ZEV mandate has great potential as a transformative climate policy, but only if government fully applies it. Too often, I’ve heard industry reps and even public servants describe the ZEV mandate as a market-following policy, one that consolidates the gradual shift in consumer preferences toward ZEVs. </p>
<p>In fact, the ZEV mandate can and should be driving the market transformation. It does this by requiring a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112419">minimum percentage of ZEV sales and charging financial penalties to auto sellers that don’t comply</a>. With this policy, there is no reason why Canada cannot achieve 50 per cent or even 75 per cent ZEV sales by 2030 — <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-pushes-norways-ev-sales-new-record-2021-10-01/">a target Norway reached this year</a>.</p>
<h2>Luxury car buyers can help pay for ZEVs</h2>
<p>I’ve heard auto industry representatives claim that an aggressive ZEV mandate is impossible in Canada because consumers don’t demand enough ZEVs and even if they did automakers could not shift production fast enough. But if the penalty is sufficient — say $20,000 for each gasoline vehicle sale that puts the seller into non-compliance — auto sellers will be incentivized to adopt a marketing strategy that accelerates growth in ZEV sales. How could they do this?</p>
<p>They could lower the higher purchase price of ZEVs with a subsidy from their more expensive vehicles. Vehicle sellers charge higher mark-ups on vehicles for which an increase in price won’t have as big an impact on sales — namely, consumers of expensive vehicles are less price sensitive. </p>
<p>For example, under the ZEV mandate, the purchaser of a $75,000 gasoline-fueled Porsche might pay $3,000 extra to help lower the price of ZEVs. They probably won’t notice since all sellers of expensive vehicles would have to do this.</p>
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<p>Auto industry reps say that government subsidies for ZEV buyers need to increase to reach ZEV targets. This is incorrect. The <a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/Content/Committee/432/ENVI/Brief/BR10911895/br-external/CleanEnergyCanada-e.pdf">ZEV mandate can function without any government subsidies</a>. </p>
<p>Indeed, it seems fairer that the subsidies to lower the purchase price of ZEVs come from the purchasers of expensive vehicles, most of whom burn climate-disruptive gasoline. Why should regular taxpayers, some of whom may not own a car, be tagged with most of the cost of accelerating ZEV sales?</p>
<h2>Incentivize marketing of ZEVs</h2>
<p>A strong ZEV mandate also incentivizes vehicle sellers to aggressively market ZEVs — this should have started a decade ago. Watch a sports event today on TV and there’s a barrage of ads portraying young adults enjoying nature in their nature-destroying gasoline vehicle. </p>
<p>If vehicle sellers lose money when they sell gasoline cars, you’ll quickly see a shift to advertising that only promotes ZEVs. Doesn’t this make sense in a climate emergency?</p>
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<img alt="Woman standing beside her SUV looking at the mountains" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426261/original/file-20211013-23-1v4jole.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426261/original/file-20211013-23-1v4jole.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426261/original/file-20211013-23-1v4jole.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426261/original/file-20211013-23-1v4jole.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426261/original/file-20211013-23-1v4jole.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426261/original/file-20211013-23-1v4jole.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426261/original/file-20211013-23-1v4jole.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Images of nature are often used to sell gasoline-burning cars, trucks and SUVs even though these vehicles produce high levels of greenhouse gas emissions and other pollution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Yet another industry argument is that we mustn’t be too far ahead of other jurisdictions. They’ve done so well with this argument that I’ve even heard a public servant claim an aggressive ZEV mandate would increase the price of electric vehicles. </p>
<p>This is backwards. If we’re in front of other jurisdictions with a strong ZEV mandate, this will induce manufacturers to rapidly shift production to ZEVs. And this will have a policy spillover effect, as citizens in other jurisdictions ask why their politicians haven’t yet implemented a ZEV mandate.</p>
<p>If our strong ZEV mandate shows the auto industry where the puck is going, just watch how quickly the production and marketing strategies change. To validate the climate-sincerity they promised during the election, our federally elected politicians must act immediately.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168922/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Jaccard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If the minority Liberal government is sincere on its election promise, it will adopt a nationwide mandate on zero-emission vehicles.Mark Jaccard, Professor, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1689182021-09-30T14:01:04Z2021-09-30T14:01:04ZCanada’s federal election made big strides for climate and the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423928/original/file-20210929-66155-x1rxb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=80%2C89%2C5910%2C3898&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is seeing nothing but blue skies ahead when it comes to his policies on climate change. But will the newly re-elected Liberal government follow through?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick </span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canada’s-federal-election-made-big-strides-for-climate-and-the-environment" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The outcome of the recent federal election — a Liberal minority dependent on the NDP or Bloc Québécois for support — has been widely seen as having a “Groundhog Day” aspect to it. It left the composition of Parliament very much as it was before, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-election-call-1.6141189">reinforcing questions about the necessity</a> of the election in the first place.</p>
<p>Yet the election has major implications for Canada’s approach to climate change and other environmental issues. Many progressives likely wanted the result: a Liberal government — but one they may not entirely trust to meet its promises on climate, child care and a host of other issues — reliant on more progressive parties to stay in office. </p>
<p>The overall outcome may have actually left Canada better positioned than before the election to make significant progress on reducing its greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<h2>Holding the progressive vote</h2>
<p>The Liberals’ efforts to hold onto progressive voters in the face of challenges from the NDP, Greens and, in Québec, the Bloc Québécois, translated into an impressive menu of climate commitments. </p>
<p>Even before the election, the government expanded <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2021/04/canadas-enhanced-nationally-determined-contribution.html">Canada’s commitment to lower greenhouse gases</a> to a 40 to 45 per cent reduction by 2030 relative to 2005. (Canada’s previous target had been 30 per cent below 2005 levels.) </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-finally-has-a-climate-plan-that-will-let-it-meet-its-carbon-targets-by-2030-152133">Canada finally has a climate plan that will let it meet its carbon targets by 2030</a>
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<p>Canada has also said it will <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">reach net-zero emissions by 2050</a>. Under that scenario, the details of which have yet to be <a href="https://www.theenergymix.com/2021/07/20/exclusive-experts-press-trudeau-to-link-energy-planning-to-1-5c-targets/">fully developed or modelled</a>, any remaining greenhouse gas emissions would have to be balanced by the amounts absorbed by biological processes (such as growing trees) and carbon sequestration or storage technologies.</p>
<p>The government’s December 2020 <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/climate-plan-overview/healthy-environment-healthy-economy.html">climate policy paper</a> proposed to increase the backstop federal carbon price to $170 per tonne by 2030. It is now expected to follow through on that.</p>
<p>The campaign produced <a href="https://liberal.ca/our-platform/cap-and-cut-emissions-from-oil-and-gas/">a promise to ensure the oil and gas sector</a> hits net-zero emissions by 2050, “with five-year targets starting in 2025.” There were also commitments to a <a href="https://liberal.ca/our-platform/cutting-methane-emissions/">75 per cent</a> reduction in fossil industry methane emissions from 2012 levels by 2030, and to “develop a plan to <a href="https://liberal.ca/our-platform/eliminating-subsidies-and-public-financing-for-fossil-fuel/">phase-out</a> public financing of the fossil fuel sector, including from Crown corporations.”</p>
<h2>Electricity, transportation and buildings</h2>
<p>About 17 per cent of Canada’s electricity comes from fossil fuels. In addition to the planned phase-out of conventional coal-fired electricity generation by 2030, a proposed “<a href="https://liberal.ca/our-platform/our-clean-power-advantage/">clean electricity standard</a>” would bring the electricity grid to net-zero by 2035. <a href="https://liberal.ca/our-platform/eliminating-thermal-coal-exports/">Thermal coal</a> exports would end by 2030.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423861/original/file-20210929-13-pxdwwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing how hydropower, nuclear, gas, coal, wind, solar, oil and other renewables contribute to electricity production in Canada." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423861/original/file-20210929-13-pxdwwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423861/original/file-20210929-13-pxdwwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423861/original/file-20210929-13-pxdwwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423861/original/file-20210929-13-pxdwwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423861/original/file-20210929-13-pxdwwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423861/original/file-20210929-13-pxdwwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423861/original/file-20210929-13-pxdwwy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The burning of fossil fuels — coal, oil and gas — to produce electricity is a major source of greenhouse gases around the world. While Canada’s dependence on coal and oil for electricity has declined in the past 20 years, gas has been on the rise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-elec-by-source?country=~CAN">(OurWorldInData.org)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Transportation is the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html">second-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Canada</a>. The federal government has <a href="https://liberal.ca/climate/100-zero-emissions-car-sales-by-2035/">accelerated its target</a> so that every new passenger vehicle sold in 2035 and beyond is a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV). The commitments come with electric vehicle rebates of up to $5,000 for 500,000 buyers, plus 50,000 new charging stations across the country. And a low-carbon fuel standard would reduce emissions from gas-burning vehicles that remain on the road.</p>
<p>For homes and buildings, which account for about 13 per cent of Canada’s emissions, the government has <a href="https://liberal.ca/climate/a-retrofit-economy-that-cuts-pollution-and-creates-jobs/">promised $5,000 energy retrofit grants for nearly half a million households</a>, with interest-free loans of up to $40,000 for deeper retrofits. There will also be a national strategy to bring the building stock to net-zero by 2050 with “ambitious milestones along the way.”</p>
<h2>Following through will be crucial</h2>
<p>The crucial question now will be the follow-though on these commitments. Many of the government’s promises, like the commitments to reduce fossil fuel and electricity sector emissions, could lead to significant federal-provincial conflicts, particularly with Alberta and Saskatchewan. </p>
<p>Over the past six years, the Liberals’ approach to addressing climate change has had some profound contradictions. The government purchased and approved the <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-liberals-make-it-hard-for-green-voters-to-love-them-122935">Trans Mountain pipeline</a>, and it has supported controversial technologies like <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/november-2020/canadas-newest-nuclear-industry-dream-is-a-potential-nightmare/">small modular nuclear reactors</a>, <a href="https://www.ciel.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/CCS-Letter_FINAL_CAN-1.pdf">carbon capture and storage</a>, and fossil-fuel dependent “blue” and “grey” <a href="https://www.pembina.org/pub/hydrogen-primer">hydrogen</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-green-hydrogen-but-not-grey-could-help-solve-climate-change-162987">Why green hydrogen — but not grey — could help solve climate change</a>
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<p>To its credit, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government had already implemented far more substantive climate policies than all of its predecessors, Liberal and Conservative, combined. The government’s minority status, dependent on two opposition parties with strong commitments to climate action, will help see these further commitments through to implementation, even if some say its <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2021/08/21/liberal-and-conservative-climate-promises-fall-short-experts-say/">pledges still fall short of what is needed to meet the revised emissions reduction targets</a>.</p>
<p>The election also had significant implications for the other parties. The credibility of the Conservative party’s stance on climate change remains suspect, and is reinforced by the <a href="https://sei.info.yorku.ca/files/2012/12/TheEnvironment.pdf?x60126">anti-environment legacy</a> of the Stephen Harper government and the behaviour of current Conservative provincial governments <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/09/13/opinion/global-assault-environmental-rights-behind-jason-kenneys-war">in Alberta</a>, <a href="https://leaderpost.com/opinion/columnists/moe-ducking-talk-of-global-warming-ghg-reduction-for-political-gain">Saskatchewan</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-and-improved-doug-ford-doesnt-extend-to-the-environment-128432">and Ontario</a>. <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8200829/future-of-canadas-greens-in-the-spotlight-after-election-setbacks/">Support for the Green Party collapsed</a> to its lowest level in two decades, yet the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/09/20/ndp-tempers-expectations-as-early-results-put-party-far-behind-rivals.html">NDP failed to make any significant gains</a> among progressive voters despite a relatively strong campaign performance by Jagmeet Singh. </p>
<p>The overall results have left Canada reasonably well-positioned to move forward on its climate commitments. The question now will be whether the re-elected Trudeau government will carry through on its promises. Its survival through the next federal election may well depend on the results.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada</span></em></p>While the outcome of the 2021 federal election offered little in the way of change, it may have left Canada better positioned to make progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Mark Winfield, Professor of Environmental Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.