tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/beppe-grillo-4888/articlesBeppe Grillo – The Conversation2018-04-04T19:13:28Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/943092018-04-04T19:13:28Z2018-04-04T19:13:28ZItaly’s Five Star Movement: Looking at an ‘unclassifiable’ political force from a marketing perspective<p>The March 4 Italian elections were marked by the breakthrough of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/05/five-star-leader-open-to-coalition-talks-despite-founders-warning">Five Star Movement</a>, which was the leading party with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2018/mar/05/italian-elections-2018-full-results-renzi-berlusconi">32% of the vote</a>. Known as “M5S”, after its name in Italian, the Movimento 5 Stelle, the
party was founded in 2009 by the comedian Beppe Grillo and his fans. For many national and international observers, it’s unclassifiable in terms of the traditional left-right conception of political parties. For this reason, it is simultaneously defined as anti-party, anti-system and populist. </p>
<p>However, the M5S is a result of a general feeling coming from Western societies, which are less centred than they were in the past on work and the culture of production, on which the traditional political consensus is based, and are more focused on the culture of consumerism – thus the now-common expression “consumer societies” used by sociologists and marketers. In this regard, the M5S stands apart from many European populist movements because it is above all a fandom, a movement of activists who are mobilised by the messages of a brand-name celebrity from the culture industry: Beppe Grillo.</p>
<h2>Origins and achievements</h2>
<p>The M5S is rooted in Grillo’s blog, <a href="http://www.beppegrillo.it/">beppegrillo.it</a>, which he launched in 2004. In the blog he discussed economic and social issues, but also denounces the failings of the Italian political class. By 2008 the blog had become, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2008/mar/09/blogs">according to <em>The Guardian</em></a>, one of the most influential in the world. </p>
<p>From a marketing point of view, Grillo is a celebrity operating as a commercial brand, with his texts and public following. Since 2004, the comedian’s fans have organised themselves into groups of local activists, “Friends of Beppe Grillo”, who participate in local debates. In 2007 Grillo used the blog to launch a political program. The discussions concerned issues of public interest intended for presentation to the then prime minister, Romano Prodi, so that he would integrate them into the governmental agenda. This did not happen. </p>
<p>During the period 2007–2008, Grillo organized in Bologna and Turin, and streamed live for other Italian cities, two “V-Day” protest rallies. Signatures were collected for peoples’ bills to reform the political class, intended to be presented to public institutions, but once again this was not followed up. The year 2008 saw for the first time the inclusion of civic lists in local elections for Beppe Grillo. On October 4, 2009, M5S was officially established. In 2010, the parties’ activists participated in regional elections – Campania, Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto – with promising results.</p>
<p>In the 2013 national elections, and against all the odds, the M5S achieved the same scores as the traditional left-wing and right-wing parties, gaining about 25% of the vote. From 2013 to 2018, the M5S took a position within the opposition in the Italian Parliament, where it denounced acts it claimed were carried out against the interests of the Italian people and in favour of the groups holding power. In 2016, the party won local elections in major cities such as Rome and Turin. In 2018, in the March 4 elections, the M5S became the leading party <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/05/five-star-leader-open-to-coalition-talks-despite-founders-warning">with 32% of the vote</a>, followed by the Partito Democratico, with just 18%.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Helena Norberg-Hodge of Local Futures speaks with Beppe Grillo, founder Five-Star Movement (subtitled).</span></figcaption>
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<h2>A populist movement… in a consumer society</h2>
<p>M5S is part of the wave of “populist” parties that have emerged in Europe recently. They range widely across the political spectrum, including the left-wing, anti-austerity <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/12/podemos-pablo-iglesias-spain-re-election-inigo-errejon">Podemos</a> in Spain, the Europhobe <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/09/ukip-group-fails-bid-restore-eu-funding-amid-inquiry">UK Independence Party</a> (UKIP), the extreme-right <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/29/germanys-far-right-afd-leader-margaret-thatcher-is-my-role-model">Alternative for Germany</a> (AfD) and the overtly neo-fascist <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/donald-trump-muslim-ban-greece-neo-nazi-golden-dawn-athens-march-protest-a7555706.html">Golden Dawn</a> in Greece. All these movements appeared in response to crises within the traditional parties.</p>
<p>Yet M5S also has characteristics in common with the party of current French president Emmanuel Macron, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/18/emmanuel-macron-marches-on-majority-french-parliament">La République en Marche</a>, in particular its transversality between left and right. M5S also distinguishes itself through its origins: it was created by the comedian Beppe Grillo, with the support of a digital entrepreneur, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/03/italy-five-star-movement-internet">Gianroberto Casaleggio</a>, and the movement’s fans. </p>
<p>What seems unclassifiable in terms of traditional political alignments has proved to be reasonably consistent with current general feeling within Western society, which is, above all, a consumer society. Moreover, it is not simply by chance while the M5S found it difficult to gain ground among those over 50, it found its support among the young.</p>
<h2>Fandom’s power</h2>
<p>The relationship of Beppe Grillo to his fansin this case – known as “grillini” – and they to each other often plays out through the Internet. Fandoms are the result of mass or popular consumer culture, where media texts, and celebrities in particular play a central role. The fans claim ownership of media content, used in turn for the creation of new content, with the aim of challenging the establishment’s political, economic and financial powers. In this scenario, a large part of the media and news programming acts as a defending wall for the dominant elites, while the Internet is the weapon with which supporters wage their guerrilla war against the system, as they spread counter-information and an alternative vision of life within society. </p>
<p>As a fandom, the M5S has come up against the status quo and the mechanisms that govern it. The M5S subverts the traditional classifications of left and right, while at the same time proposes a universal income for all citizens living below the poverty line and support for small and medium-sized businesses. The Internet – including Grillo’s blog as well as its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/world/europe/italy-election-davide-casaleggio-five-star.html">Rousseau platform</a> – is not only a means of communication, but is also an infrastructure for the movement’s operations, the selection of its candidates, the proposal and discussion of its ideas and the development of its programs. The Internet is the means by which the M5S aims to replace one of the fundamental institutions of modern democracies, representative democracy. Instead, it will be direct democracy, enabled by the Internet.</p>
<p>Therein lies the difference between the M5S and other European “populist” movements. While they may have acquired more fluid forms adapted to contemporary society, they remain linked to political categories and/or the history of the traditional parties. The M5S is pure expression of the power that consumer culture – the brand and its fans – exerts on Western societies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregorio Fuschillo is a member of the Five Star Movement.</span></em></p>While often lumped with other European populist parties, Beppe Grillo’s M5S is a movement of activist fans mobilized by the messages of his “celebrity brand”.Gregorio Fuschillo, Professeur assistant de marketing et de consumer culture « theory », Kedge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/928072018-03-06T11:38:52Z2018-03-06T11:38:52ZItaly’s economy has ‘cronyism disease,’ but will its next government treat it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209049/original/file-20180306-146645-1h7ms38.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Five Star Movement's Luigi Di Maio and founder Beppe Grillo won big in the March 4 elections.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Andrew Medichini</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On March 4, Italy went to the polls in one of the most chaotic and unpredictable elections in recent memory. <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-italy-fake-news-helps-populists-and-far-right-triumph-92271">The result</a> was in line with expectations: None of the three competing coalitions attained an outright majority. </p>
<p>Under the mediation of the country’s president, Italy’s political parties will now try to form a coalition government with an agreed framework of policies. I believe a top priority should be addressing how to revive Italy’s economy, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth">which has been stagnant</a> for more than two decades. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, it probably won’t be on the top of the agenda. That’s because the issue was largely absent from the campaign, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/05/europe/italy-elections-intl/index.html">overshadowed by concerns</a> about immigration and anti-European sentiment. So it’s hard to know if the soon-to-be-formed government has a solution or even understands the problem. With <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-09/italian-debt-load-up-this-year-above-130-in-2018-eu-says">Italy’s debt at over 130 percent of GDP</a> and a <a href="https://www.thelocal.it/20170718/italy-european-union-most-highest-percentage-neet-unemployed-young-people-millennials">third of 20- to 34-year-olds</a> unemployed, it’s vital that the country solve this issue. </p>
<p>University of Chicago’s <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dd-5oP4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Luigi Zingales</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=02AMk1kAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I</a> have sought to pinpoint the source of Italy’s woes in <a href="https://research.chicagobooth.edu/-/media/research/stigler/pdfs/workingpapers/14diagnosingtheitaliandisease.pdf?la=en&hash=FB3054008103B1E0E24E3F7E1D307523B0B2AD5F">new research we published</a> in October as a <a href="http://www.nber.org">National Bureau of Economic Research</a> <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w23964">working paper</a>. If we had to sum up our findings in one word, it would be “cronyism.” But that isn’t the end of the story. </p>
<h2>Italy’s ‘productivity disease’</h2>
<p>Italy’s economic malaise can be traced to the lack of gains in business productivity, which, as <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/what-determines-productivity">economic research shows</a>, is the most important determinant of an economy’s long-term performance. Simply put, it means more is being accomplished with less. </p>
<p>As Italian – and some <a href="https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/26/whats-the-matter-with-italy/">non-Italian</a> – economists know far too well, productivity as measured by GDP per hour worked stopped growing in the country around 1995.</p>
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<p>Identifying the cause of this “productivity disease” is a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-real-italian-job-make-the-economy-more-productive-1519756469">puzzle</a> that has <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/diagnosing-italian-disease">intrigued economists for years</a>. Zingales and I tried a fresh way to find an answer to this conundrum by systematically exploring two different, massive data sets. </p>
<p>The first data set combined corporate financial information with a <a href="http://bruegel.org/publications/datasets/efige/">survey of manufacturing companies</a> in seven European countries, including Germany, Spain and Italy. The <a href="http://www.euklems.net">second contained detailed sector-level economic data</a> on 29 countries, including those seven. Our analysis focused on data from the mid-1990s, when Italy’s growth began to stagnate, until 2006, a few years before the Great Recession hit.</p>
<p>What emerged from our data dissection was a strong link between country growth patterns and companies’ adoption of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_and_communications_technology#ICT_sector_in_the_OECD">information and communication technology</a>, such as computers, which became cheap and widespread in the 1990s. That is, countries in which businesses were quick to adopt these groundbreaking new technologies grew at a faster pace. </p>
<p>What might drive the difference in rates of technology adoption? <a href="https://voxeu.org/epubs/cepr-reports/why-some-do-it-better">Research</a> has found that it comes down to having managers that are focused on performance and workplaces agile enough to reorganize when needed. </p>
<p>This is precisely where Italian companies fell short, according to our investigation. </p>
<h2>Corporate cronyism</h2>
<p>In particular, using several measures of corporate cronyism, we found that Italian businesses were dramatically more likely than their peers in other countries to hire friends or others to managerial positions rather than merit-based applicants. </p>
<p>In fact, on a 0-5 point scale, with the high score signaling a strong meritocracy that rewards performance, almost half of the Italian companies in the manufacturing survey got a zero.</p>
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<p>We then compared these results with the data that measured adoption of information technologies and found a correlation: Companies and countries where cronyism was high and management failed to reward merit, such as Italy, were also much slower to adopt the new technologies, leading to stagnant productivity growth. </p>
<p>In contrast, countries with more meritocratic companies, such as Finland and Sweden, were quick to adopt the technologies, leading to stronger growth. The differences were largest in industries that use computers and other information technologies more intensely, such as financial and communication services.</p>
<h2>Unaware of the problem</h2>
<p>So if cronyism was the root cause of Italy’s lack of productivity growth, what can policymakers do to reverse this trend?</p>
<p>Unfortunately, only two of Italy’s parties – both members of the center-left coalition that governed Italy before suffering major defeats in the elections – even <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/17/italy-election-whos-leading-with-taxes-debt-and-more-on-the-line.html">acknowledged</a> this problem in their political platforms. Perhaps this is because the Italian public itself is barely aware it exists.</p>
<p>Even more discouraging is that no party has offered a concrete proposal to address it. </p>
<p>This is bad news for Italy. Its debt load is the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-election-markets/italian-banks-bonds-bear-brunt-of-election-fallout-idUSKBN1GH28R">third-largest in the world</a> at US$2.3 trillion and will eventually become unsustainable if the country is unable to revive economic growth. At the same time, more than a third of Italians aged 20-34 are unemployed. </p>
<p>Boosting productivity is essential to resolving both problems. If the new government fails to address it, Italy risks another two decades of stagnant growth and more “<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/italys-lost-generation-youth-unemployment-hits-nearly-50-percent">lost generations</a>.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92807/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruno Pellegrino acknowledges funding from the Price Center for Entrepreneurship and the Center for Global Management at UCLA Anderson.</span></em></p>Italy has stagnated for more than two decades, yet its politicians seem hardly aware of the source of the problem, let alone how to fix it.Bruno Pellegrino, PhD Candidate in Business Economics, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/928612018-03-05T13:09:36Z2018-03-05T13:09:36ZItaly election: what we know so far about who could form a government<p>Italy has been a populist stronghold for two and a half decades – that is since 1994, when <a href="https://theconversation.com/silvio-berlusconi-what-to-expect-from-the-comeback-king-in-italys-election-92457">Silvio Berlusconi</a> created his Forza Italia (FI) party. His goal was allegedly to “save” the Italian people from being governed by “Communists” after the collapse of centrist parties under the weight of anti-corruption investigations. Having won the election in the same year, Berlusconi then led a short-lived coalition government, with the support of the extreme-right party the Social Movement and the regionalist populist Lega Nord.</p>
<p>Fast forward 24 years to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43272700">2018 election</a>, and not only is Berlusconi still FI’s leader (and indeed owner), but, together with a renewed Lega, he has again managed to assemble an electoral coalition that could end up in government.</p>
<p>However, this time there is an important twist: yet another populist political actor was born in the meantime and now happens to be the largest single party of all: the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-italys-five-star-movement-69596">Five Star Movement (M5s)</a>. Having entered the Italian political scene less than ten years ago as an anti-establishment force, this group has struck a chord with an electorate weighted down by the economic crisis and fed up with the corruption of mainstream parties. In this election the party has attracted just below one third of the votes by standing alone.</p>
<h2>Rising stars</h2>
<p>A first analysis of the electoral outcome should start with the <a href="http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI">undisputed winner</a> – that is M5s. There is no denying it has achieved an amazing result, especially given that its performance in leading local administrations in recent years, particularly the city of Rome, has been far from impressive.</p>
<p>Having gained around 32% of the national vote, M5s has confirmed its position as the most successful new party in the history of Western Europe (going from 0 to 25% between 2009 and 2013, and having grown of a further 7% in the following five years). As such, the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, might well feel compelled to give it a chance to form a government before exploring the alternatives.</p>
<p>However, it is not obvious at this stage who could work with Beppe Grillo’s party to lead the country. A solution will probably turn out to be to reach an agreement with the Democratic Party (PD). But that’s the very party that M5s has long identified as the source of the country’s ills. This would be a complete reversal of the position taken by M5s after the 2013 election, when it refused to even consider such a possibility and went into opposition, forcing the PD to govern with FI.</p>
<p>The difference between then and now, however, is considerable. Back then, the PD-led coalition had emerged from the election with 29% of the vote – the largest share. M5s took 25%. Moreover, this coalition had a much larger number of seats than M5s, due to the electoral law in force at the time. This time round, the PD suffered a crushing defeat (its vote has gone down from 25% in 2013 to 18%) and would be forced into a supporting role if it went in to partnership with the dominant M5S. It’s unclear why the Democrats would want to swallow such a bitter pill. While not impossible (after all, the centre-left has a great ability to shoot itself in the foot), I regard such a solution as very unlikely. It would be tantamount to committing political suicide.</p>
<h2>A right-wing alliance</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, the right wing alliance – made up of Berlusconi’s FI, Matteo Salvini’s Lega and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, is by far the largest coalition. However, the Lega has overcome FI for the first time with an astonishing 17% of the vote (vs FI’s 14%).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208879/original/file-20180305-65525-y0ef7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208879/original/file-20180305-65525-y0ef7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208879/original/file-20180305-65525-y0ef7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208879/original/file-20180305-65525-y0ef7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208879/original/file-20180305-65525-y0ef7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208879/original/file-20180305-65525-y0ef7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208879/original/file-20180305-65525-y0ef7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feeling good: Matteo Salvini.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is very significant since the agreement between the two was that whichever of them came on top would have a right to put forward the prime minister. If the right eventually manages to gain the support of enough MPs to create a government, therefore, Salvini would have to lead it.</p>
<p>Salvini’s radicalism and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d9b7a876-1d48-11e8-956a-43db76e69936">harsh rhetoric</a> (particularly on immigration) makes it less likely that anyone would want to give the right wing coalition this opportunity (and in any case, it is not clear at this stage where such extra MPs would come from). But having brought the party from 4% in 2013 to 17% today (the best result ever achieved by the party, and by far) Salvini’s position within the Lega is now unassailable.</p>
<h2>Who governs?</h2>
<p>With the right-wing alliance unlikely to have enough seats to govern on its own and voters so obviously fed up with mainstream parties, it now looks at least possible that, despite their differences, the Lega and M5s may want to explore the possibility of governing together. This would be very difficult for the Lega, as the party would need to ditch its well tested alliance with FI, one that has served it well during many years.</p>
<p>Such a move would be further complicated by the fact that the two right-wing allies (and their minor ally, Brothers of Italy) have fielded coalition candidates together, since, under the new electoral law, one third of the seats are selected from single-member districts (SMDs) according to a plurality rule. It is true that each of the candidates came from one of these parties and, ultimately, is loyal to them, however they have received the support of all right-wing voters. If the Lega ignored this and agreed to join M5s in government, Berlusconi would accuse them of betraying the electorate.</p>
<p>In the end, what we are left with while we still wait for the final results to be confirmed is the certainty that populism continues to dominate Italian politics. Everything else is a question mark.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92861/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniele Albertazzi has received funding from AHRC, The Leverhulme Trust and the British Academy</span></em></p>The Five Star Movement is the biggest party, but forming a government is going to be difficult. Will a right-wing coalition prevail?Daniele Albertazzi, Senior Lecturer in European Politics, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/922712018-03-05T05:37:55Z2018-03-05T05:37:55ZIn Italy, fake news helps populists and far-right triumph<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208841/original/file-20180305-65525-bmae1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Silvio Berlusconi, left, arrives to vote as a bare-breasted woman protests in background</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Luca Bruno</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Although there were no outright winners in Italy’s parliamentary election on March 4, there were two clear losers – the European Union and immigrants.</p>
<p>No one party or coalition won a majority and negotiations to form a new government are likely to last several weeks. But results have shown a dramatic increase in the number of votes for the populist Five Star Movement (Movimento Cinque Stelle) and far-right party the League (La Lega).</p>
<p>Five Star – which <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/opinion/from-sicily-a-voice-of-discontent-to-scare-all-italy.html">one commentator</a> described as a party with a “rightist façade over a leftist basement and anarchic roof” – is poised to be the biggest party with more than 30 percent of the vote. The League, an anti-immigrant party in former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition, soared to its best result ever with over 18 percent of the vote.</p>
<p>These results will alarm European observers given the anti-EU positions of both these groups. Nationalist French politician Marine Le Pen <a href="https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/970424528995266560">tweeted</a> as the votes came in that it was a “bad night” for the EU.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"970424528995266560"}"></div></p>
<p>I research how <a href="https://scholar.google.co.jp/citations?user=fkFHJ3gAAAAJ&hl=en">citizens in different countries use online tools</a>, particularly search engines, to access election information. One thing is clear to me: The rise of these populist and far-right parties was supported by dramatic shifts in the information diet of Italian voters. </p>
<h2>Cutting out traditional media</h2>
<p><a href="https://filippotrevisan.net/2018/03/01/new-book-chapter-mapping-the-search-agenda-election-case-studies-from-italy-the-uk-and-the-u-s/">A study I co-authored</a> shortly after the Italian election in 2013 showed that even then voters were keen on alternative online information sources. In particular, voters searching the internet for information about the Five Star Movement were more likely to look specifically for the party’s official website and online streaming channel instead of traditional media sites. </p>
<p>These <a href="http://firstmonday.org/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/5237/4157">trends</a>, combined with Italians’ <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Digital%20News%20Report%202017%20web_0.pdf?utm_source=digitalnewsreport.org&utm_medium=referral">low levels of trust in media organizations</a>, have made Italy fertile ground for spreading misinformation and propaganda online. </p>
<p>In the last five years, online alternative media platforms and their audience have grown exponentially in Italy. At the end of 2017, BuzzFeed <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/one-of-the-biggest-alternative-media-networks-in-italy-is?utm_term=.qlGOVlpRk#.mu5yLXRWM">exposed</a> several popular Italian websites and Facebook pages that posed as news organizations but trafficked in misinformation with a focus on anti-immigration content. These outlets had several million social media followers. That is substantially more than Italian newspapers and political leaders who <a href="http://www.repubblica.it/speciali/politica/elezioni2018/2018/02/19/news/twitter_follower_leader_politici_umani_attivi_inattivi_fake-189182576/#gallery-slider=189170913">typically attract modest numbers of followers</a>. For example, Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni has only 410,000 Twitter followers. Compare that to U.S. President Donald Trump with more than 48 million.</p>
<p>The appetite for this type of content increased as immigration became the central theme of the 2018 election campaign. In the lead up to the elections, Five Star’s leader Luigi Di Maio described organizations involved in migrant rescue operations as acting as “<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.it/2018/01/30/quando-luigi-di-maio-disse-che-le-ong-sono-taxi-del-mare-la-polemica-con-saviano_a_23347869/">sea taxis</a>,” implicitly accusing them of ferrying illegal migrants across the Mediterranean to generate more business for themselves. Meanwhile, the League’s leader Matteo Salvini campaigned on an <a href="http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Salvini-come-Trump-Lo-slogan-prima-gli-italiani-bec239ea-66ec-4fc7-9f01-44dbfe6160b4.html?refresh_ce">“Italians First”</a> platform reminiscent of Donald Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-america-first-echoes-from-1940s-59579">“America First”</a> mantra. In February, a neo-Nazi and former local candidate for the League went on a racially motivated shooting spree that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/03/driver-opens-fire-african-migrants-italian-city-macerata">wounded six African migrants</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208848/original/file-20180305-65547-17yqbyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208848/original/file-20180305-65547-17yqbyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208848/original/file-20180305-65547-17yqbyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208848/original/file-20180305-65547-17yqbyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208848/original/file-20180305-65547-17yqbyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208848/original/file-20180305-65547-17yqbyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208848/original/file-20180305-65547-17yqbyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208848/original/file-20180305-65547-17yqbyn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">League party leader, Matteo Salvini, exits a voting booth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Antonio Calanni</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The specter of Russian meddling</h2>
<p>International experts and Italian government officials also pointed at Russian attempts to influence the Italian vote. </p>
<p>Last month, the <a href="http://www.lastampa.it/2018/02/17/esteri/lastampa-in-english/how-russian-twitter-accounts-are-trying-to-influence-the-italian-vote-3lK1heJxAe71xmjXPsvrXO/pagina.html">Italian daily La Stampa</a> identified several prolific Twitter accounts suspected as being used for Russian propaganda operations in Italy. In <a href="http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publications/reports/the-kremlin-s-trojan-horses-2-0">a report published last fall</a>, the Atlantic Council, an American think tank, documented extensive links between Russian figures and both the Five Star Movement and the League. </p>
<p>Both these parties have pro-Russia policies. For example, their leaders have often spoken out against EU-sanctions on Russia. They have also expressed ambiguity towards NATO. Both candidates have received space on Kremlin-backed media such as the television network RT and news agency Sputnik. In addition, popular news websites controlled by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/world/europe/italy-election-davide-casaleggio-five-star.html">the PR agency in charge of Five Star’s election campaign</a> have posted content espousing Kremlin propaganda.</p>
<h2>A broken media system</h2>
<p>The problem is not simply that misinformation is readily available online, but also that a large proportion of Italians <a href="http://www.lastampa.it/2018/02/05/italia/politica/le-fake-news-rischiano-di-condizionare-il-voto-tre-italiani-su-dieci-ci-credono-8CRt10HpIVq6drx5kiButI/pagina.html">find this content credible</a>.</p>
<p>In Italy, the line between politics and journalism is often blurred. Many journalists have made the transition to politicians and vice versa. Most recently, a top editor at La Repubblica - Italy’s most read newspaper - resigned to <a href="http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2018/01/26/news/tommaso_cerno_candidato-187327651/">stand in the election as a Democratic Party candidate</a>. The word “lottizzazione” – literally, “the division of land into plots” – is used to describe how control over various public TV and radio channels are divided by powerful political parties. </p>
<p>The commercial broadcasting sector isn’t much better. Ownership is concentrated in just a few hands, most notably those of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.</p>
<p>Berlusconi has for years sought to delegitimize the press outside of his media empire. He has called out journalists critical of his tenure as prime minister. Infamously, <a href="http://www.lastampa.it/2008/04/18/esteri/gaffe-di-berlusconi-che-mima-il-mitra-putin-s-mi-piaccioni-le-belle-donne-HjmvgV2CFmAdtSuVTMlc1M/pagina.html">he mimed shooting a machine gun</a> at a journalist during a press conference with Vladimir Putin in 2008.</p>
<p>Grillo has adopted similar rhetoric. He <a href="http://video.corriere.it/beppe-grillo-contro-giornalisti-vi-mangerei-il-gusto-vomitarvi/be9643fc-9d2f-11e7-bc32-abadbc125b15">relentlessly attacks journalists</a> as establishment crooks and encourages Five Star supporters to distrust Italian media.</p>
<h2>Restoring trust in journalism</h2>
<p>As Italian parties begin negotiations over who will be the next prime minister, these factors have created the conditions for online misinformation to continue to thrive. Both Facebook and the Italian police <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/02/19/in-the-war-against-election-meddling-italy-takes-the-lead/?utm_term=.198f86e71046">are experimenting</a> with systems to eradicate bots and report purveyors of fake news. I believe these complex measures can help. However, long-term efforts to restore trust in journalism among Italian audiences are also essential.</p>
<p>This will involve strengthening media literacy skills, boosting the independence of the public broadcasting sector, and possibly reorganizing media ownership so that it is not as tightly concentrated. Without this ambitious set of measures, online misinformation and propaganda are unlikely to go out of fashion in Italy anytime soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92271/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Filippo Trevisan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Together, two parties with a tough stance on immigration and the EU – the Five Star Movement and the League – received nearly 50 percent of the vote.Filippo Trevisan, Assistant Professor, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/921412018-02-23T13:28:40Z2018-02-23T13:28:40ZItaly election: how populist Five Star Movement is wrecking government hopes for the mainstream<p>Italy faces an election on March 4 – and, after a long decade of austerity and economic difficulties, a strong possibility of further political paralysis. Neither the centre-left, the centre-right, or the populists are likely to command a majority in parliament. Establishing a functioning government won’t be easy, and its make-up will depend on which parties are prepared to put aside their differences and form an alliance.</p>
<p>The populist <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-italys-five-star-movement-69596">Five Star Movement</a> (M5S) exploded onto the electoral scene in the 2013 general election, arresting the see-saw alternation between centre-left and centre-right majority governments that had been tentatively established in the 1990s. The vote produced a hung parliament, forcing the two traditional parties to work together in a centrist “grand coalition” to keep M5S out of office.</p>
<p>Now, M5S, <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-an-election-in-italy-next-year-and-m5s-has-some-familiar-problems-85492">despite recent allegations of corruption</a>, is even stronger. It’s likely to emerge from this election as the <a href="https://www.termometropolitico.it/1289058_sondaggi-elettorali-demopolis-6.html">largest party</a>. But it looks unlikely to secure enough of a majority to govern alone and it continues to refuse to form coalitions with other parties.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=134&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=134&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=134&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207275/original/file-20180221-132650-25c0wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Statistics from the February 16 Demos opinion poll, organised by party and political spectrum.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A collapse in support of the two pivotal parties of the centre-left and centre-right means that neither look likely to be able to form a government either. The Democratic Party under former prime minister Matteo Renzi has sunk from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_general_election,_2013">25% of the vote</a> in 2013 (and an astounding 40.8% of the vote in the 2014 European elections) to 21.9% in polls today. Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, on the centre right, has collapsed from 21.5% in 2013 to 16.3% today. Both parties are suffering from <a href="https://theconversation.com/matteo-renzi-just-killed-off-italys-centre-left-73492">splits and fragmentation</a>, which have weakened the coalitions they lead.</p>
<h2>A new system</h2>
<p>Faced with this decline, it’s not surprising that, in 2017, Renzi and Berlusconi brought the combined parliamentary strength of their parties together to pass an electoral reform that seemed designed to offset M5S’s electoral popularity by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/20/italian-pm-renzi-electoral-reform-m5s">limiting its seat gains</a>.</p>
<p>The new electoral system (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_electoral_law_of_2017">the rosatellum</a> – after Ettore Rosato, the Democratic leader in the Chamber of Deputies who first proposed the new law) is a “mixed” system (part “first-past-the-post” and part proportional). It favours those parties willing to ally together behind single candidates to prevent splitting their vote. It also gives an advantage to those parties that are territorially concentrated, such as the Democratic Party (in the central regions) and the Northern League (in the north). M5S, which opposed the electoral reform, has no natural coalition allies and does not yet have a strong presence at local or regional levels.</p>
<p>This electoral engineering will nevertheless come at a cost. It increases the likelihood that none of the parties or coalitions will reach the 40% threshold of the vote that is likely to be necessary to secure a parliamentary majority. This has resulted in a feverish election campaign, dominated – not by debates about policies – but by speculation over possible post-election coalitions. Even an anti-establishment M5S-Northern League alliance is being touted as a possibility.</p>
<p>All of this matters not just to Italy but to Europe. A decade after the eurozone crisis began, the Italian economy is still in recovery. Its sheer size and significance to the eurozone remains a concern to the European Union, which has demanded greater fiscal discipline and reforms to encourage growth and improve productivity. That needs effective government – and one supportive of the EU.</p>
<p>Yet, there is a rising tide of eurosceptism in Italy, fuelled by M5S and years of perceived EU-imposed austerity. Forza Italia, the Northern League and M5S have all toyed with the idea of withdrawing Italy from the euro, meaning only the Democratic Party has unequivocal pro-euro credentials. Yet, even under prime ministers from that party (Matteo Renzi, Paolo Gentiloni), the Italy-EU relationship has become testy and fractious. Governments have become less willing to be the “good European” if it is seen to involve imposing more austerity on an unwilling population.</p>
<p>Overall, the state of play makes for a potent mix. The 2013 parliamentary and presidential elections produced a “perfect storm” and Italy ended up, for some time, without a prime minister, government or president. This time, fortunately, the president is not up for election – and it will be his responsibility to appoint a prime minister capable of governing with a parliamentary majority. The road ahead is however still fraught with uncertainty.</p>
<p>The new electoral system increases the importance of post-election manoeuvring by the parties, and will determine whether a repeat grand coalition government is needed (and possible) to keep out the extremes, or whether Italy will take a step into the unknown with some kind of anti-EU populist governing alliance. Europe will be watching closely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92141/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin J Bull does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Italy’s political future hangs in the balance – will it see another chaotic grand coalition, or take an anti-EU populist step into the unknown?Martin J Bull, Professor of Politics, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/699172016-12-05T14:27:59Z2016-12-05T14:27:59ZA damning defeat for Matteo Renzi but Italy’s referendum is not a populist triumph<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148611/original/image-20161205-19379-sduhbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Renzi resigns.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Alessandro Di Meo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has carried out his promise to resign after losing a referendum on his country’s constitution. This brings an end to a tenure that lasted just 1,000 days.</p>
<p>In a moving speech, Renzi said: “I have lost … I take full responsibility for this result.” His decision marked a break from the post-war norm in Italian politics. Renzi was actually seeing through on his promise. “This time, when you lose you step down,” he said. “You do not carry on as though nothing has happened.” </p>
<p>The 65.5% Italians who voted in this referendum not only rejected the proposed constitutional change, they completely annihilated it. An enormous 59.1% voted No and 40.9% voted Yes, siding with Renzi. Only three regions voted Yes: Tuscany, Emilia Romagna and South Tyrol – two of which are traditional strongholds of Renzi’s party.</p>
<p>The decisiveness of the result has completely shocked the nation. While a No vote was always a possibility, the margin was expected to be close. Back in April, the Yes camp was seen to have an advantage.</p>
<p>In the end, the No supporters seemed to have come from a far wider coalition of voters than expected – including people from the left and even senior figures in Renzi’s <a href="http://www.firstonline.info/News/2016/11/11/referendum-e-pd-i-pretesti-di-dalema-e-bersani-e-lombra-della-scissione/MV8yMDE2LTExLTExX0ZPTA">own party</a>. Indeed, they were so broadly spread across the political spectrum that it has been said there were no winners in this referendum. No single political party can claim the victory. If a winner were to be declared, it would surely be political participation – even Italian democracy – given the extraordinarily high turnout.</p>
<h2>Why No?</h2>
<p>But while many have sought to portray the Italian referendum as the latest battle in the war between populists and the establishment, that would be an oversimplification of what has happened to Renzi.</p>
<p>Yes, this was an anti-establishment vote, but it was not necessarily an expression of populism. The No vote was intrinsically linked to Renzi – it was not a sign of support for any of his rivals, but a rejection for what he stands for.</p>
<p>The trouble was, Renzi was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/17/world/europe/a-berlusconi-reminder-as-italy-faces-another-unelected-premier.html">never actually elected by the people</a> to the job of prime minister. He ousted former prime minister and PD politician Enrico Letta in February 2014 after he lost the support of his governing coalition. Consequently, the people have never really had a chance to vote – or not – for Renzi.</p>
<p>During his short time running the country, Renzi has achieved many important things and put Italy back on the right road. But he has not tackled many of the more urgent questions and issues (such as electoral reform). </p>
<p>Renzi wanted to change Italy but turned this vote into a plebiscite on him and his way of governing. And this, according to political scientist <a href="http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/referendum-costituzionale/diamanti--il-pd-ormai-e-il-partito-di-renzi-ma-proprio-per-questo-ha-perso-il-referendum/261586/261913?ref=HREC1-3">Ilvo Diamanti</a>, was his mistake. By personalising the referendum, Renzi alienated potential supporters of his reform. He made it look like he was playing with the Italian constitution and clearly Italians were wary of changing the rules of the political game. As the <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21710816-country-needs-far-reaching-reforms-just-not-ones-offer-why-italy-should-vote-no">Economist recently pointed</a> out, Renzi’s proposed reforms could create “an elected strongman” – a worrying prospect for a country that produced Benito Mussolini and Silvio Berlusconi. </p>
<p>Renzi has also governed in a way that started to bother many – not only those who make up the various opposition parties, such as the Northern League and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-italys-five-star-movement-69596">Five Star Movement</a>, but also those in his own party. His use of Twitter and his cavalier manner have made him look like a dynamic force on the European stage – a leader who wants to get Italy out of a hole – but at home, his tactics have backfired. For Italian voters, Renzi’s media persona is all too reminiscent of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.</p>
<p>The result of the referendum may have been decisive, but the fallout is a major unknown. It will now be up to president Sergio Mattarella to guide the country through this delicate post-Renzi moment.</p>
<p>The markets’ initial worries have so far proved unfounded and this referendum result must not be analysed as part of a wave of populism but rather as a wave of anti-establishment sentiment in Italy. Although it is clear that this Italian result will not help to solve the turmoil in Europe, the referendum – and the Italian political situation in general – are not necessarily the latest example of populist triumph.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felia Allum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This was a vote against the prime minister – not a show of support for his rivals.Felia Allum, Senior Lecturer in Italian and Politics, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/699192016-12-05T13:34:52Z2016-12-05T13:34:52ZItaly’s ‘no’ vote lights another fire under the European Union<p>How to interpret the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/matteo-renzis-future-in-the-balance-amid-high-turnout-in-italy-referendum">outcome</a> of the Italian referendum? Matteo Renzi’s government is clearly the loser – and the prime minister announced his widely expected resignation as soon as the result was in. </p>
<p>The proposed constitutional reform would have given much more power to Renzi by taking it away from the Italian Senate. It was part of a wider package of <a href="http://www.governo.it/approfondimento/1000-giorni-di-governo-renzi/6160">political reforms</a> pushed by his government which can be summed up as the idea that Italy needed to be “unlocked”. The constitutional changes were presented as consolidating this new trajectory, together with a new <a href="https://www.quora.com/Italy-What-is-the-Italicum">electoral law</a> designed to underpin the reformed constitution. The referendum confirmed that 59.1% of voters had other ideas. </p>
<p>Renzi’s government was initially wildly popular but lost support as it became clearer over nearly three years in power that the material conditions of large sections of the population were not progressing but stagnating or, in some cases, getting worse. </p>
<p>Constitutional matters in Italy have traditionally been kept separate from ordinary politics, but not on this occasion. Because the government drafted and submitted the reform proposals rather than the parliament, and Renzi <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/17/matteo-renzi-repeats-vow-quit-italian-pm-loses-referendum">said</a> that he would resign if he lost, it became a vote on the government’s policies – and of course its leader. </p>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>For weeks, the prospect of a defeat for the government has been framed as another reaction against the establishment – hardly surprising in the context of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president">Trump</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887">Brexit</a> and other populist movements toppling centrists around the world. </p>
<p>Such a reading might be supported by a quick look at some of the components behind the No campaign. The <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/italys-other-matteo-salvini-northern-league-politicians-media-effettosalvini/">Northern League</a> and Beppe Grillo’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-italys-five-star-movement-69596">Five Star Movement</a> represent two rather different types of right-wing politics that are prone to frame their messages in a populist way – albeit Five Star is the only one that fully fits the anti-establishment archetype seen in other countries. Yet while the government was clearly the political subject behind the proposed constitutional reform, there was no overarching narrative behind the No campaign. </p>
<p>It was an aggregation of different political and social actors, from mainstream right-wing parties to trade unions and civil society associations. They did not form a coalition or attempt to coordinate their efforts, and for obvious reasons they represented very different parts of society. Revealingly, no new movement, political subject or leader emerged out of the contest. </p>
<p>You also need to look at the <a href="http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2016/referendum/costituzionale/mondo.html">distribution</a> of the vote. As in other countries, we can probably point to a disenfranchised group – though it’s less about class in Italy. We don’t have definitive data on how age affected the voting, but <a href="http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/media/I-giovani-e-il-Sud-hanno-bocciato-la-riforma-di-Renzi-la-prima-analisi-dei-risultati-del-referendum-0ebc5b75-8d09-4456-be52-7b52c954d41c.html#foto-2">surveys</a> ahead of the vote indicated that the over 65s were the only group backing Yes; while support for No was strongest among the under 35s. </p>
<p>Given that youth unemployment in Italy is <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/youth-unemployment-rate">dramatically high</a> and the material conditions of younger people are deteriorating, the clear message is that Renzi’s reform package was not seen as addressing this group’s problems. </p>
<p>On the other hand, it is interesting to note that the division between centre and periphery, urban and rural areas, which played a major role both in Brexit and in the election of Trump, does not explain what has happened in Italy. On the contrary, the No vote seems to have prevailed almost everywhere except in the regions of Tuscany and Emilia Romagna, the historic strongholds of Renzi’s Democratic Party. In many ways, then, this was a traditional rejection of an unpopular government. </p>
<h2>Italy and the EU</h2>
<p>The most likely immediate scenario following Renzi’s resignation is that a new government will be formed, led by the Democratic Party under a new leader. It will presumably approve the new electoral law and enact some of the bills behind Renzi’s political programme, and could in theory hold power until the current parliamentary term ends in February 2018. </p>
<p>It might well be that this new government will make anti-EU feeling even stronger. The likes of the Five Star Movement have understood how to capitalise on the growing tendency in this previously pro-European country to blame the EU for austerity and society’s ills. Of course, their chances of winning the next general election depends on how the next government reforms the electoral laws: ironically, the changes that Renzi was proposing would have favoured the Five Star Movement. No one, at this stage, can predict what the next electoral reform will look like. </p>
<p>From this vantage point, however, there is certainly a good chance that Italy is heading for a similar protectionist shift of the kind that looks likely to happen in the US next year. Some financial analysts <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/04/renzi-battle-survival-italians-go-polls-vote-seen-referendum/">are already</a> seeing the vote as the first step towards an Italian departure from the eurozone. </p>
<p>So while it is too simple to say that events in Italy exactly fit those in other countries, the outcome might well end up comparable. As if the EU did not have enough to worry about with Brexit, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-marine-le-pen-could-become-the-next-french-president-68765">Le Pen</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/31/geert-wilders-trial-throws-netherlands-divisions-in-sharp-relief">Wilders</a> and so on, this is one more crisis that it really could do without.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69919/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Goldoni does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The revolt that brought down Matteo Renzi is no carbon copy of Trump et al, but that won’t be of much comfort to Brussels.Marco Goldoni, Senior Lecturer, Law, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/695962016-12-01T10:57:35Z2016-12-01T10:57:35ZWhat is Italy’s Five Star movement?<p>As populist movements gain strength across the world, attention has turned to Italy, where the government faces pressure from a group known as the Five Star Movement (M5S). Since its inception in 2009, the M5S has risen to become one of the most voted-for parties in Italy. But as the group eyes power, there are questions about whether it would actually be capable of running the country.</p>
<p>The M5S was started in 2009 by comedian Beppe Grillo and web strategist <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/gianroberto-casaleggio-dead-italian-politician-who-co-founded-the-five-star-movement-dies-aged-61-a6980236.html">Gianroberto Casaleggio</a>, who had the intuition that the internet could be used as the basis for a new kind of party – one without organisation, money, ideology or headquarters. This encouraged Grillo to use his blog and the social networking site, Meetup.com, to bring people together to campaign on local issues and then field candidates for elections.</p>
<p>The Movement drew initial strength from the twin ideas of a new form of direct democracy and popular disgust with the political elites. Its policies have always been an eclectic mix of the anti-establishment, environmentalist, anti-globalist and eurosceptic, and its supporters have always come from across the political spetrum.</p>
<p>At the 2013 general election, the M5S came from nowhere to become the second most voted for party. Through ups and downs, its poll ratings have stood at around 30% ever since, generally ahead of the centre right and only just behind the centre-left Democratic Party.</p>
<p>The M5s does not seem to have suffered from outcries about how Virginia Raggi, the recently elected mayor of Rome, is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/20/rome-mayoral-crisis-could-hurt-five-stars-national-chances-italy-virginia-raggi">running her administration</a>. Nor have allegations that activists have been involved in <a href="http://www.ansa.it/emiliaromagna/notizie/2016/11/23/m5s-firme-irregolari4-indagati-bologna_e33bd988-2c42-4df2-8041-eb35e9eef3a6.html">falsifying signatures</a> on the nomination papers of candidates for elections in Bologna and Palermo dented its progress.</p>
<p>These incidents seem to fly in the face of the M5S’s claim to stand for a new, more honest politics. But people vote for it because it represents something different from a political class in whom vast swathes have virtually no confidence.</p>
<h2>The problem with power</h2>
<p>Since the M5S draws support from all parts of the political spectrum, the fear among sceptics is that it would sweep the board in a run-off ballot against one of the two biggest political parties in Italy. It would inevitably attract votes from two sources – its own supporters and those opposed to whichever of the parties, the Democratic Party or the centre right, it found itself up against.</p>
<p>However, the profile of M5S activists and supporters casts doubt on whether it would be able to govern effectively if it did win an election. A vote for the M5S is a straightforward protest vote. Despite being united in their desire to shake up the status quo, M5S activists and supporters are divided across the whole range of issues separating left and right. They don’t necessarily share a position on the EU, taxation or migration – in fact M5S voters are more or less split down the middle.</p>
<p>It is doubtful that such a party can remain cohesive when faced with the pressures of governing. The M5S would probably crumble under the weight of the responsibility for making choices that can only benefit some while hurting others.</p>
<p>Experience both in parliament and in local government confirms that protest parties railing against “the system” are as likely to find themselves being absorbed by it as they are to transform it once in office. Faced with the day-to-day pressure, they are doomed to become a party just like all the others.</p>
<p>Since the 2013 general election, 18 of M5S’s 109 representatives in the Chamber of Deputies (17% of the total) have defected to a different group. Italian parliamentarians are notorious for jumping from one group to another during the course of a legislature – indeed 24% of the house has moved during the current one – but the M5S defectors have clashed with the leadership in a way that reflects what has been a fundamental problem for the movement. </p>
<p>Many have left because they came into conflict with pressures to behave as mere party delegates, rather than as representatives, exercising their own judgement. Grillo claims to espouse the ideology of direct, “bottom-up” democracy but has sought to impose party discipline from the top down. He deals with rebels by threatening to withdraw their right to use the movement’s brand, of which he is the exclusive owner.</p>
<p>So while it’s possible that the movement could do well if the Italian government calls an election in 2017 or 2018, it would find itself uniquely badly placed to withstand the enormous threats to its unity that would come with being in office. The greatest concern would be the market pressures, including capital flight and economic turmoil, that would be caused by the promise of a referendum on euro membership.</p>
<p>And even if it were able to withstand such pressures, it might then find it difficult, if not impossible, to hold such a referendum in the first place. For one thing, the Italian constitution prohibits referendums on the abrogation of laws ratifying international treaties, and the jurisprudence that has developed over the years has extended the prohibition to the laws that give effect to such treaties.</p>
<p>That means that in order to hold a euro membership referendum, it would probably first be necessary to secure a revision of the constitution, and for that to be possible, it would be necessary to win two positive votes in each chamber of parliament at intervals of not less than three months. Without that support, the M5S would almost certainly need to hold a confirmatory referendum for the constitutional revision.</p>
<p>So there might have to be two referendums before an exit from the euro could take place. And then, of course, those referendums would have to be won. In order to achieve that, M5S would have to overcome its current uncertainty about what it would replace euro membership with. And it would have to find a way of persuading the 67% of respondents who currently say they favour continued membership.</p>
<p>Of course, we live in rapidly changing times. But if forced to place a bet on it, I would put my money on there not being a euro exit any time soon – or at least not one engineered by the M5S.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69596/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Newell is a member of the Labour Party.</span></em></p>A populist movement led by a comedian has come from nowhere to make life very difficult for the establishment.James Newell, Professor of Politics, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/446242015-07-16T14:04:58Z2015-07-16T14:04:58ZGreek parliament passes debt agreement, but European democracy is on its knees<p>Almost as soon as the Greek deal was agreed, it began to come apart at the seams. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33535205">Passage of the necessary legislation</a> through the Greek parliament led to Syriza splitting in two as Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, drew on the votes of the right to force through a deal which is worse than anything that was on offer before the referendum on July 5. </p>
<p>Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/grexit-favored-by-many-members-of-german-government-says-schauble-1436877063">revealed that</a> many in the German government actually want Greece to leave the euro, effectively admitting that the deal was deliberately designed to be as tough as possible to force Tsipras to reject it. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33534260">The deal’s passage through the German parliament</a> will not be straightforward, and Finnish politicians <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/14/finland-stand-in-way-greece-bailout-deal-finns-party">have also expressed deep scepticism</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been engaging in a propaganda battle against its European partners in the Troika, leaking a memorandum in which it argues that <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/14/imf-report-greece-needs-more-debt-relief">Greece’s debt is unsustainable</a> and implying that the agreement will fail.</p>
<h2>Loss of sovereignty</h2>
<p>In forming the eurozone, the core member states of the EU <a href="http://www.lrb.co.uk/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-all-that">gave up at a stroke much of the economic policy autonomy</a> that they had enjoyed in the past. The euro implied stringent (though not easily enforceable) rules on government borrowing, the hollowing out of national central banks, and as a result, the pooling of monetary policy decisions.</p>
<p>During the benign economic times of the first few years of the euro’s existence, this loss of national sovereignty appeared to have few obvious costs, and in any case the mainstream political parties in the member states were fully committed to the single currency and the institutions that sustained it. But the global financial crisis wrecked that illusion, and the choice to opt for fiscal <a href="http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199389445.do">austerity</a> and a conservative approach to monetary policy has had dramatic consequences for the weaker economies of the European periphery.</p>
<p>Greece has been the prime victim of this crisis. The new government led by Tsipras demanded an end to the tough austerity measures imposed by its creditors – the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Commission – in exchange for financial help to the heavily indebted Greek state. </p>
<p>But fatally, Tsipras, as it now appears, had no fallback strategy: what if the other European nations said no? Syriza aimed to renegotiate the terms of the financial assistance provided by the EU and the IMF, without having any credible bargaining counters. <a href="http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/greece-politics.136r">The hardline Schäuble</a> simply called Tsipras’s bluff, and faced with the alternative of a chaotic exit from the euro, a humiliated Greece fell into line with a programme that is even harsher than the original bailout Syriza was seeking to overturn.</p>
<h2>Echoes in southern Europe</h2>
<p>There is a little doubt that in their diplomatic game with Greece, the hardliners were playing a longer game. This autumn, elections will be held in Spain, where the new left populist party <a href="http://newleftreview.org/II/93/pablo-iglesias-understanding-podemos">Podemos</a> has quickly risen from nowhere to challenge the pro-euro orthodoxy.</p>
<p>In Italy, <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21635792-beppe-grillo-says-he-tired-and-his-movement-tired-his-autocratic-leadership-falling-star">Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement</a> has called for a referendum on Italy’s euro membership, and commands the support of more than 20% of Italian voters. In France, far-right Front National leader Marine Le Pen is <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-french-front-national-leader-marine-le-pen-a-972925.html">openly hostile to the euro</a>. </p>
<p>Concessions to Syriza would have helped the cause of these various anti-austerity parties in their respective national electoral arenas. But after Syriza’s abject humiliation, Spain’s conservative leader Mariano Rajoy, and also his Socialist opponent Pedro Sánchez, will enthusiastically point to the Greek disaster as an example of the dangers of seductive ideas of debt relief and euro exit, undercutting Podemos’ appeal.</p>
<p>This may well work as a short-term political strategy: the Greek debacle is enough to put anyone off the idea of challenging EU orthodoxy. Spain’s <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/gdp-growth">return to timid growth</a> will allow Rajoy to claim that austerity and reform works in the end, while a left populist government would plunge the country into chaos with capital controls, empty shops and <a href="http://www.bmj.com/content/351/bmj.h3804/rr">shortages of essential commodities</a>. It may not be enough to save Rajoy’s own government, but it should ensure that Podemos can be marginalised by some form of minority government led by either the conservative Popular Party or the Socialists, maybe with the help of the new pro-euro centre-right party Ciudadanos.</p>
<h2>Bitter medicine</h2>
<p>But what of the longer term consequences of the Schäuble method for dealing with recalcitrant debtors? It has now become clear that the European Union institutions cannot, and will not, accommodate the election of governments opposed to current eurozone policy. Not only will no concessions be made, but difficult governments will be punished for their insubordination, as Syriza has been.</p>
<p>The evidence that these reforms will actually promote growth in Greece is <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e9c6e16e-e349-11e4-9a82-00144feab7de.html#axzz3fxeR3Bvw">conspicuous by its absence</a>: to my knowledge, nobody in the Troika has come up with a precise estimate of the likely contribution to GDP of the liberalisation of the bakery sector (one of the measures contained in the agreement), or Sunday retail opening hours (a measure still resisted in Germany itself). Given that the economic consequences of privatisation and deregulation are a matter of some dispute in the research literature, the imposition of these reforms by administrative fiat subverts democracy to a remarkable degree. </p>
<p>If the reforms fail, who will be held accountable? Certainly not the people who designed them. Whatever happens, Greece can be accused of not going far enough, as indeed it has over fiscal policy, despite undergoing <a href="http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1580-should-other-eurozone-programme-countries-worry-about-a-reduced-greek-primary-surplus-target/">a much greater fiscal squeeze than any other member state</a>.</p>
<p>The destruction of democratic decision-making in Greece may indeed be the result of the country’s own past mistakes, but even so, it takes the European Union to an entirely new scenario, in which economic policy is now the exclusive preserve of EU officials who have no direct interest in the success of the Greek economy. </p>
<p>Indeed, the emphasis on how “tough” the required measures are hints that the unpleasantness of the medicine is rather more important than the efficacy of the cure. The Schäuble method means that to remain in the euro is to subscribe to policies decided by the most powerful creditor nation. Financial assistance must be met with gratitude and accepted without any discussion of its terms.</p>
<p>The designers of the institutions of European Monetary Union and the key decision-makers within those institutions have presided over the worst period of economic management on the continent since World War II. Is a further stripping away of democratic controls over these decisions really the best way to return to growth?</p>
<p>Democracy was ultimately successful across the European continent because it proved an effective way of securing the social order necessary for capitalism to function. It now appears to be the view among European elites that capitalism can manage better without democracy. The next few years will show whether the electorates of struggling nations are prepared to acquiesce.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44624/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Hopkin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One thing is clear: if you need bailing out, your voters no longer matter.Jonathan Hopkin, Associate Professor of Comparative Politics, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/362302015-01-14T10:14:11Z2015-01-14T10:14:11ZItaly’s ageing president resigns as country grasps at stability<p>Giorgio Napolitano, Italy’s 89-year-old president, has <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/giorgio-napolitano-resigns-italian-politics-bids-farewell-to-the-president-who-gave-silvio-berlusconi-the-boot-9976068.html">resigned</a> from the office he has held for nearly a decade. His departure will prompt a secret ballot among parliamentarians to replace him. But this is not likely to be an easy job, since the Italian parliament is currently rife with disagreement and dissatisfaction. </p>
<p>Originally elected in 2006, Napolitano reluctantly accepted re-election in 2013 because a highly polarised parliament could not guarantee the required absolute majority to any successor. <a href="http://www.quirinale.it/elementi/Continua.aspx?tipo=Discorso&key=2688">In his inaugral address</a>, Napolitano warned that his resuming office was only a temporary solution to the problem.</p>
<p>In a couple of weeks, 950 members of the Italian Parliament and 58 representatives of the regions will meet in a bid to succeed in the task that eluded them less than two years ago. The election of a new president is the proof they need to prove that the Italian government is not crumbling.</p>
<h2>What’s the president for?</h2>
<p>Some believe the Italian presidency is little more than a ceremonial role, but the chief of state is actually assigned substantial powers in the <a href="https://www.senato.it/documenti/repository/istituzione/costituzione_inglese.pdf">Italian Constitution</a>.</p>
<p>Presidents can, for example, hand lifelong positions in the senate to up to five people and appoint members to the Constitutional Court. They can also ask parliament to reconsider a bill before it becomes law. Since the constitution came into force in 1948, presidents including <a href="http://www.quirinale.it/qrnw/statico/ex-presidenti/Einaudi/ein-biografia.htm">Luigi Einaudi</a> and <a href="http://www.quirinale.it/qrnw/statico/ex-presidenti/Gronchi/gro-biografia.htm">Giovanni Gronchi</a> jealously guarded their autonomy from the executive power in order to continue fulfilling these functions.</p>
<p>What’s more, Italian governments are traditionally unstable and the political scene notoriously fragmented. There have been 63 governments since 1946, and since the political crisis of the early 1990s, majorities have been more and more fragile, composed of up to 20 different parliamentary groups. Against this backdrop, the president represents a rare centre of institutional continuity.</p>
<p>Napolitano, in particular, has pushed the limits of his authority. He used the highest degree of power on offer to him when trying to bring in effective governance before the debt crisis of 2011-12 and during the hung parliament deadlock that emerged after the 2013 elections.</p>
<h2>In the running</h2>
<p>The prestige of the presidential office naturally attracts some top names to the job and several potentials have been identified in the run up to Napolitano’s departure.</p>
<p>Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, is thought to be a strong candidate, even though he himself <a href="http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubriche/english/2013/01/15/ECB-chief-Mario-Draghi-considering-Italian-presidency_8077406.html">denies being in the running</a>. Draghi is internationally respected and his election to the presidency would reassure the European establishment that a reliable guardian for Italian economic and fiscal discipline was taking the helm. He may find less support in Italy itself though, where growing impatience with austerity policies could act as a major obstacle to his appointment.</p>
<p>Romano Prodi, Italy’s prime minister between 1996-1998 and 2006-2008, as well as president of the European Commission from 1999 to 2004, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/19/us-italy-vote-idUSBRE93I08I20130419">came close to election in 2013</a>, and could find support again. But Forza Italia’s leader Silvio Berlusconi, Prodi’s main political opponent in 1996-2006, is openly hostile to his candidacy for the role and his veto may be decisive.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68991/original/image-20150114-3879-1803inz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68991/original/image-20150114-3879-1803inz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68991/original/image-20150114-3879-1803inz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68991/original/image-20150114-3879-1803inz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68991/original/image-20150114-3879-1803inz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68991/original/image-20150114-3879-1803inz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68991/original/image-20150114-3879-1803inz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Romano Prodi came close to election in 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Presidenza della Repubblica</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A low-profile political figure is instead more likely to receive votes from the required number of electors. The moderately left Democratic Party, which is currently the most powerful force in parliament, could draft in one of its former secretaries to take the job, for example.</p>
<p>Potential candidates from these quarters include <a href="http://www.glistatigenerali.com/presidente-della-repubblica/chi-sara-il-prossimo-presidente-della-repubblica-io-punto-su-veltroni/">Walter Veltroni</a>, who has strong ties to new party leader and prime minister Matteo Renzi. Other options include <a href="http://www.glistatigenerali.com/politici/dalla-rottamazione-allusato-sicuro-per-il-quirinale-renzi-punta-su-bassanini/">Franco Bassanini</a>, who made a name for himself in the 1990s for making important reforms to intrusive public bureaucracy. Or <a href="http://www.regione.piemonte.it/governo/presidente/curricul.htm">Sergio Chiamparino</a>, who was a popular mayor of Turin during the <a href="http://www.olympic.org/turin-2006-winter-olympics">2006 Winter Olympics</a> and is now president of Piedmont, is another with a chance at election. A group of parliamentarians allegedly close to Renzi timidly advanced his candidacy in 2013. Now, more electors may back him.</p>
<h2>Lost faith</h2>
<p>Whichever of these men emerge as candidates, it will be difficult to find a president with support from a broad range of sources. In fact, the major leaders won’t even been voting in this election. Both Renzi and Beppe Grillo, founder of the radically populist Movimento 5 Stelle, have decided not to run for a parliamentary seat in 2013 general elections, so won’t be eligible to vote. Berlusconi, for his part, <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2013/aug/24/holding-italy-hostage/">lost his seat in the senate</a> after being convicted of tax fraud, so won’t be able to take part in the vote either.</p>
<p>What’s more, the party leaders are all likely to find it difficult to impose their preference on the parliamentary groups when it comes to casting votes since each faces internal opposition to their policy agenda. The secret ballot by which a president is elected will allow members of parliament to express their discontent by disregarding the will of their leaders.</p>
<p>Renzi has been widely criticised by the traditional left for his attempts to give the Democratic Party a business-friendly image, and Grillo is facing growing criticism for the lack of internal democracy in the Movimento 5 Stelle. In Forza Italia, some accuse Berlusconi of taking care of his own interests above those of the party he founded.</p>
<p>The eventual winner will work with Renzi and his ministers on the final parliamentary passage of two crucial political reforms. A new electoral law should introduce a second round between the two largest parties to make sure one has a super-majority of 55% of the seats. </p>
<p>And a constitutional bill could substantially modify Italy’s two-chambers system by transforming the senate into an assembly for the representation of local governments, with no vote of confidence. </p>
<p>But the new president will first of all have to face the growing protests against unpopular recent <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30447158">labour market reforms</a>, which unions consider a further step towards the total “precarisation” of work.</p>
<p>So Napolitano’s successor will have his work cut out – and Italy’s politics show little sign of fully stabilising any time soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36230/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Mariuzzo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Giorgio Napolitano, Italy’s 89-year-old president, has resigned from the office he has held for nearly a decade. His departure will prompt a secret ballot among parliamentarians to replace him. But this…Andrea Mariuzzo, Research Fellow in History, Scuola Normale Superiore di PisaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/257812014-05-22T13:56:56Z2014-05-22T13:56:56ZEU election: first electoral test for new PM Renzi in Italy<p>In Italy, as elsewhere, elections for the European parliament have always tended to be “second order”. This means that voters see them as less important than the “first-order” elections for the national parliament and thus often use them as an opportunity to cast a protest vote or to send “messages” to national politicians. </p>
<p>Aware of this tendency, politicians focus their campaigning (and journalists their reporting) on national issues, with the result that European election campaigns are not primarily about the parliament or what its members do there but about the distribution of support between politicians, policy positions and parties in the national arena.</p>
<p>Against this background, the main focus is on the implications of the outcome for the recently installed prime minister, Matteo Renzi and his government. There is also much interest in the <a href="http://www.thelocal.it/20140516/why-has-italy-turned-eurosceptic-overnight">growing Euroscepticism</a> as expressed by a number of parties led by Beppe Grillo’s Five-star Movement (M5S). Observers are also keeping an eye out for signs of a <a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/michele-barbero/can-alexis-tsipras-save-italian-left">resurgence of the radical left under Greek opposition leader Alexis Tsipras</a> and on the domestic reform implications of a poor result for Forza Italia (FI) under its ageing leader Silvio Berlusconi. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49261/original/gyjx5x9j-1400755061.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49261/original/gyjx5x9j-1400755061.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49261/original/gyjx5x9j-1400755061.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49261/original/gyjx5x9j-1400755061.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49261/original/gyjx5x9j-1400755061.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49261/original/gyjx5x9j-1400755061.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49261/original/gyjx5x9j-1400755061.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49261/original/gyjx5x9j-1400755061.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/italy/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
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<p>As the post-election standing of every one of these causes and parties will have very significant implications for the future direction of Italian politics, it is not surprising that commentators, if not the general public, are awaiting polling day with an unusual degree of eager anticipation.</p>
<h2>Renzi’s first test</h2>
<p>May 25 will be the first electoral test for Renzi, the charismatic 39-year-old who <a href="https://theconversation.com/springtime-for-matteo-renzi-italys-untested-political-tyro-23323">secured the premiership</a> in a “palace coup” in February. His audaciousness seemed to confirm popular assumptions of his ability to shake up the existing power structures against the odds.</p>
<p>Renzi is a politician with little ideological baggage; one who promises a Blair-style policy revolution capable of extending his party’s appeal across the political spectrum. If the Democratic Party (PD) does well it will strengthen Renzi’s hold over his party and therefore his ability to pursue <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304626304579509721468661850">labour-market and institutional reform</a>, currently provoking significant internal divisions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49265/original/6zc4ybnx-1400757089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49265/original/6zc4ybnx-1400757089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49265/original/6zc4ybnx-1400757089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49265/original/6zc4ybnx-1400757089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49265/original/6zc4ybnx-1400757089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49265/original/6zc4ybnx-1400757089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49265/original/6zc4ybnx-1400757089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49265/original/6zc4ybnx-1400757089.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Poll taken by Euromedia for Porta a Porta. Published May 9.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://metapolls.net/category/europe/euroelections-2014/italy-euroelections-2014/#.U33RkPldXsY">Graphic courtesy of Metapoll.net</a></span>
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<p>His strategy of attacking entrenched privilege is designed to cut the ground from under the feet of the Five-Star Movement (M5S) whose explosive growth at the 2013 general election was due to a wave of popular protest against established party interests and to widespread demands for political renewal. Its <a href="http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/anti-euro-party-grillos-advisor-says.html">call to consider withdrawing from the euro</a> reflects its success in linking its critique of representative democracy with opposition to austerity. </p>
<p>By exploiting widespread popular discontent with EU-imposed austerity, then, the M5S both expresses and feeds a Euroscepticism once extremely rare in a country which saw in European integration the road to liberation from the perceived shortcomings of its own public institutions.</p>
<p>The radical left, meanwhile, has come together under the label: “The other Europe with Tsipras” – in reference to the Greek opposition leader’s anti-austerity vision. The Other Europe, founded in March by a group of far-left intellectuals, But the left’s is diametrically opposed to the anti-European, xenophobic assumptions driving the anti-austerity of the right. </p>
<p>Finally, Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (FI) has adopted an ambiguous position reflected in the slogan: “More Italy in Europe, less Europe in Italy!” – a slogan that accurately reflects the rather schizophrenic attitude of a party which has always tended to combine the pro-European credentials deriving from its membership of the European People’s Party with periodic anti-European outbursts on specific issues.</p>
<p>The best performing party is the PD with more than 30%, followed by the M5S with around 23-25%, FI at around 18% and the remaining parties are hovering at or around the exclusion threshold of 4%.</p>
<h2>Vote with extra meaning</h2>
<p>Berlusconi’s political decline poses a significant threat to Renzi and to long-awaited <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e3cdc5e6-b8fe-11e3-98c5-00144feabdc0.html#axzz32RTgJXFU">reform of the political system</a> which depends to a certain extent on the continuing strength of FI to check the growing popularity of the M5S. If FI does badly at the EU elections, then Berlusconi’s followers’ perceptions that his political career is over could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. The elections will therefore not only be a referendum on Europe and the performance of the Renzi government but they are also likely to determine the future shape of the Italian political system as a whole.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Newell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In Italy, as elsewhere, elections for the European parliament have always tended to be “second order”. This means that voters see them as less important than the “first-order” elections for the national…James Newell, Professor of Politics, University of SalfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/137682013-04-29T01:53:12Z2013-04-29T01:53:12ZHe did it again: how Berlusconi managed to keep power in Italy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/22958/original/nxqwcn3k-1367194906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C40%2C2720%2C1999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Despite not holding an official cabinet position, Silvio Berlusconi will exert a great deal of influence over Italy's newly-formed government.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Pier Paolo Ferreri</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Under the leadership of re-elected president Giorgio Napolitano, a “grand coalition” of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and the centre-right coalition of parties - headed by Silvio Berlusconi - <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22327445">has been sworn in</a> as the new government in Italy. </p>
<p>The new prime minister, Enrico Letta, represents the conservative and Catholic faction of the PD. He is also the nephew of one of the closest Berlusconi allies, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/bridge-builder-enrico-letta-seals-silvio-berlusconi-deal/story-e6frg6so-1226631135214">Gianni Letta</a>. </p>
<p>The new government will include many important politicians in Berlusconi’s coalition, and Berlusconi, although not sitting in cabinet, will have enormous power and influence. </p>
<p>When considering the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/30/us-italy-berlusconi-fall-idUSBRE8AT0NB20121130">trials and the scandals</a> which have plagued Berlusconi in recent years - as well as his enormous responsibilities in pushing the country to the edge of a terrible social, economic, cultural and moral crisis - one might wonder how he managed to retain power once again.</p>
<p>Although in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/berlusconis-rise-and-the-search-for-stable-government-in-italy-12493">recent election</a> he lost millions of votes, there is still approximately a quarter of Italian voters who support him. These are people who are emotionally attached to their leader; people who are still under the strong influence of the TV channels and other media controlled by him; people who despise the political left for ideological reasons; and people who are afraid to lose the (little or large) benefits they gain from a system of widespread corruption and tax evasion. </p>
<p>In a country where power has remained for a long time in the hands of elderly, white, heterosexual, Catholic and conservative men, Berlusconi still represents a relatively accurate reflection of the country’s socio-economic, cultural and generational hegemony. Italy has for instance <a href="http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/news-and-features/market-news/industry-news-2012/challenging-italys-gerontocracy">often been described</a> as a “gerontocracy” (a system of power dominated by elderly people), and it is not by chance that all the three main candidates as Presidents of the Republic (Stefano Rodotà, Franco Marini and Romano Prodi) were born between 1933 and 1939. While none of them were successful, it is no coincidence that it was an even older man, Giorgio Napolitano (born in 1925), who was.</p>
<p>These social, cultural and anthropological characteristics have guaranteed Berlusconi a significant number of votes even in the recent election. Still, his coalition did not win outright, and one could have expected that the two other major political groups, the centre-left coalition and the new populist movement, <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-much-too-young-for-italys-five-star-movement-12491">Five-Star Movement</a> (M5S), would have taken the opportunity to isolate Berlusconi once and for all. How can we then explain their failure to do so?</p>
<p>The centre-left coalition that should have easily won the majority in both chambers made three fundamental mistakes before the election. It supported the technocratic government led by Mario Monti, which <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-21/monti-s-austerity-pushes-italians-toward-parliamentary-upheaval.html">imposed extreme and unfair cuts</a> in the name of the economic austerity imposed by Europe and by the financial markets.</p>
<p>Almost certain of an easy victory against Berlusconi, his political rivals underestimated his resilience. They also underestimated the emerging influence of the M5S, a protest movement led by a former comedian (Beppe Grillo), which managed to attract 25.5% of the total vote for the lower house and 23.8% in the Senate. Having run a very poor election campaign, the centre-left coalition led by Pier Luigi Bersani obtained the majority of seats in the lower house, but failed to do so in the Senate. This coalition itself is profoundly divided, between a more leftist and innovative side, and a more powerful, conservative side. Had they won the election, they could have maintained internal discipline. Not so in the current political chaos.</p>
<p>The M5S, however, obtained an incredible result, when considering that this was the first national election they took part in. However, such success was obtained on the basis of a populist agenda that mixed innovative ideas with demagogic propaganda. Claiming that the distinction between left and right is no longer relevant, and by calling for a revolt against all politicians, they obtained a large number of votes from dissatisfied, enraged and desperate voters on both sides of the political arena. They also insisted that their candidates be selected online by the members of the movement, with little or no attention given to the actual political and professional abilities and experiences of the candidates. As a result, they managed to elect a large number of citizens with very little experience in politics and government and with disparate political ideas, values and convictions. </p>
<p>As such, it was clear that M5S had no interest and ability to assume any government responsibility by seeking an agreement with the centre-left. Such agreement would have alienated many of its voters and forced their elected members to demonstrate actual political unity and leadership. They instead decided to reject any attempt of agreement, and to reinforce and consolidate their stance as the main opposition party.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">New Italian prime minister Enrico Letta and re-elected president Giorgio Napolitano have formed a ‘compromise’ government to solve months of political deadlock.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Paolo Giandotti</span></span>
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<p>The centre-left coalition found itself forced to choose between an agreement with Berlusconi and going back again to an immediate and very risky election. A new election would have almost certainly seen their defeat, or at best would have confirmed the need for a coalition with Berlusconi. Meanwhile, Italy - in need of profound and brave reforms - would have remained in a political deadlock for months if not years to come. </p>
<p>The result of such an intricate political situation was the implosion of the centre-left coalition, the re-election of Napolitano as president (as voted by MPs and Senators of both the PD and Berlusconi’s coalition), and the formation of a new government led by Enrico Letta. He is a younger and more palatable expression of the conservative politicians who control the PD. </p>
<p>The make-up of the new government includes more women, younger politicians, and the first black minister. However, most key ministries are in the hands of Berlusconi’s men and other conservative politicians. It is clear that Berlusconi has not accepted to support such government out of love for the country, and will expect a significant return. This is a government that will be under the constant political blackmail of Berlusconi and his acolytes. </p>
<p>Will such a government be able to bring profound and much-needed changes to Italy to fight widespread corruption, tax evasion and crime, while also proposing innovative economic and social policies? Sadly, the more democratic, modern and open part of Italian society, which always ends up being isolated and squashed between conservatism and populist protest, is not really hopeful.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/13768/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Ricatti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Under the leadership of re-elected president Giorgio Napolitano, a “grand coalition” of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and the centre-right coalition of parties - headed by Silvio Berlusconi - has…Francesco Ricatti, Cassamarca Senior Lecturer, School of Communication, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/124642013-02-27T23:46:22Z2013-02-27T23:46:22ZItaly’s post-election nightmare: stalemate sinks growth hopes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20730/original/t7t6mrvr-1362006834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Leader of the Five Star movement, Beppe Grillo, rode a wave of unexpected popularity to obtain one quarter of the votes in Italy's House of Representatives.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The economic troubles of Italy are largely homegrown. Some might argue that they have been made worse by the fiscal austerity measures adopted under pressure from the European Union. But the truth is that, Europe or not, three decades of fiscal profligacy eventually had to come to an end. The landing could not possibly be soft.</p>
<p>If problems are homegrown, then their solution should also be homegrown. In this regard, the elections held last week-end could have been a good starting point: new parliament, new government, and a new push towards long-term, pro-growth reforms.</p>
<p>But this does not seem to have been the case. First of all, throughout the campaign, the issue of long-term growth has been overshadowed by the debate on fiscal austerity. Parties have talked a lot about cutting taxes and balancing the budget, but they have not said much about what should be done to re-launch growth after twenty years of stagnation.</p>
<p>Second, the polls yielded a highly fragmented parliament which is unlikely to generate the type of solid and cohesive government required to undertake long-term economic reforms.</p>
<p>No party or coalition has a majority in both Houses (House of Representatives and Senate). In the House of Representatives, the centre-left coalition led by the Democratic Party (PD) won by a very small margin over the centre-right coalition led by the People of Freedom Party (PDL). Because of the Italian electoral system, even such a small margin translates into a significant majority in the number of elected representatives.</p>
<p>In the Senate, the situation is much more complicated. The total number of senators is 315: the PD and its allied gained 119 seats, the PDL and its allied 117 seats, the Five Star movement 54 seats, and Civic Choice 18 seats. Even if seven seats still remain to be assigned, it is already clear that none of the parties/coalitions can reach the majority quorum of 158.</p>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>There are two main winners in this election. One is certainly the new <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/25/beppe-grillo-italy-election-success">Five Star movement</a>, led by former comedian Beppe Grillo. Five Star is an anti-politics movement whose campaign was based on a rather populist platform.</p>
<p>Five Star gathered the “vote of protest” of most Italian citizens dissatisfied with the political class. It achieved a remarkable 25% of votes in the House of Representatives (a bit less in the Senate), which makes it the largest single party in the legislature.</p>
<p>The second winner is Silvio Berlusconi, the leader of PDL. Thrown out of office 15 months ago and currently on trial for various charges, including a sex scandal, Berlusconi led his centre-right coalition to an amazing climb back.</p>
<p>No more than two months ago, PDL lagged 20 percentage points behind the PD in the opinion polls. The electoral results today say that the PD-led coalition and the PDL-led coalition are both around 30%, separated by a mere 0.5% in the House of Representatives (1% in the Senate).</p>
<p>The main loser is instead PD, which lost the large advantage it had over both PDL and Five Stars in just a couple of months. For one thing, the leadership of PD was unable to communicate effectively with a large segment of moderate electorate. For another, PD remained trapped between the strong anti-taxation stance taken by Berlusconi and the general sentiment of distrust towards politics, which drove the success of Five Star.</p>
<p>The second loser is outgoing Prime Minister Mario Monti. His <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/tag/mario-monti/">Civic Choice</a> movement, allied with a couple of small centrist parties, did not go beyond 10% of votes in both Houses, which makes it almost irrelevant in the coalition game that will be played by PD, PDL, and Five Stars.</p>
<p>Monti was appointed Prime Minister in November 2011, when it became evident that Berlusconi’s government was unable to respond to the debt crisis. He headed a technical government that undertook tough measures of fiscal austerity.</p>
<p>While at that time there was no alternative to fiscal austerity, Monti should have also started an ambitious plan of reforms. Unfortunately, this did not happen and the austerity measures significantly worsened the recession.</p>
<p>During the electoral campaign, Monti somewhat loosened his fiscal stance, promising to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/monti-pledges-raft-of-tax-cuts-after-a-year-of-increasing-levies.html">lower certain taxes</a> and to start reforms, but evidently Italian voters were not inclined to give him a second chance.</p>
<p>Someone might read Monti’s poor showing as a vote against the European Union. The Five Star movement, which loudly demands a renegotiation of Italy’s agreements with Europe, might have also benefited from a growing anti-European sentiment within the electorate.</p>
<p>However, more than a rejection of the European Union, the vote might signal that citizens have understood what parties still fail to grasp: it is the lack of economic growth that makes fiscal austerity necessary. Re-start growth, and draconian fiscal measures will no longer be needed.</p>
<h2>Playing the coalition game</h2>
<p>Because of its majority in the House of Representatives, the PD is still the obvious candidate to form a government. Numbers are such that some sort of agreement with either PDL or Five Stars will be needed in the Senate.</p>
<p>The leader of PD, Pier Luigi Bersani, is probably orientated towards striking a deal with Five Star. The most likely scenario is one where PD forms a minority government (together with the other small parties in the centre-left coalition) and Five Star provides some conditional external support.</p>
<p>It is hard to say what kind of economic policy a government like this would be able to implement.</p>
<p>PD’s policy platform includes a set of tax cuts for lower-income households and an increase of deductions on taxes on reinvested earnings. To offset the decrease in tax revenues, PD proposes to cut transfers and government consumption and to raise extra-revenues from the sale of public assets and the fight against tax evasion.</p>
<p>In principle, these are all measures that Five Star might be willing to support. The central question is what Five Star will ask in return. The answer here is particularly difficult because the movement avoided any debate with other parties/coalitions during this campaign, and its published policy document does not provide much detail on economic policy.</p>
<p>Making the public administration more transparent and less expensive is a recurrent theme in the rhetoric of Five Star, and it is something the PD should be prepared to do. But some of the other ideas of Five Star in the area of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/opinion/italy-votes-on-its-future.html?_r=0">labour market reforms</a> or <a href="http://www.beppegrillo.it/en/2012/07/pygmies_of_europe.html">European integration</a> might be difficult for the PD to digest.</p>
<p>Moreover, it is unclear to what extent a protest and anti-politics movement like Five Star is willing to support a PD-led government. In fact, Five Star has probably more to gain by staying in opposition, at least for now.</p>
<p>The alternative for PD is an alliance with the centre-right. Paradoxically, some common ground for this coalition could be found in the policy programme of PDL, which includes a large fiscal stimulus package with comprehensive tax cuts, an increase in public investment, a reorganisation of tax expenditures, stronger action against tax evasion and capital flights, and an aggressive public assets sale plan.</p>
<p>In a post-election interview, Berlusconi indeed suggested that PDL might be willing to cooperate with PD to form a large coalition government. But the two parties have been engaged in fierce competition for 20 years, their leaders have attacked each other violently, often on personal grounds. The wounds caused by this conflict are too fresh and too large to be quickly healed. Hence, not surprisingly, Bersani promptly rejected Berlusconi’s offer.</p>
<p>If the attempt of the PD to form a government were to fail, then there would be only one possible way forward: new elections. In itself, the risk of having to put the country through another long campaign, in these economic conditions, should be a strong-enough incentive for parties to find an agreement.</p>
<p>But alas, the present economic and political situation of Italy suggests that, in the past, the good of the country got often lost in the subtleties of the political game. Can we expect anything different this time?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise continuous linear model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p>The economic troubles of Italy are largely homegrown. Some might argue that they have been made worse by the fiscal austerity measures adopted under pressure from the European Union. But the truth is that…Fabrizio Carmignani, Associate Professor, Griffith Business School , Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.