tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/fairfax-ipsos-poll-17018/articlesFairfax Ipsos poll – The Conversation2018-12-18T04:30:06Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1089072018-12-18T04:30:06Z2018-12-18T04:30:06ZPoll wrap: Labor widens lead in Ipsos; US Democrats gained 40 House seats at midterms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251183/original/file-20181218-27764-7ctpe0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As the year come to an end, all the polls are giving a significant two-party preferred lead to the federal Labor Party.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/voters-divided-labors-tax-proposals">Fairfax Ipsos</a> poll, conducted December 12-15 from a sample of 1,200, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since November. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up three), 36% Coalition (down one), 13% Greens (steady) and 6% One Nation (up one). As usual in Ipsos, the Greens are too high.</p>
<p>Respondent-allocated preferences were also 54-46 to Labor. While Malcolm Turnbull was PM, respondent preferences skewed to the Coalition relative to preferences derived from using 2016 election preference flows. However, Ipsos’ four polls since Scott Morrison became PM have shown no difference on average between respondent and previous election methods.</p>
<p>47% approved of Morrison (down one), and 39% disapproved (up three), for a net approval of +8. Bill Shorten’s net approval was down two points to -9. Morrison led by 46-37 as better PM (47-35 in November). Ipsos gives incumbent PMs higher ratings than Newspoll.</p>
<p>By 44-43, voters opposed Labor’s proposed changes that would restrict negative gearing tax deductions. By 48-43, voters opposed Labor’s proposal to halve the concession on capital gains tax. These questions highlight the potential for a Coalition scare campaign based on Labor’s proposed changes.</p>
<p>Four weeks ago, Ipsos and Essential both gave Labor just a 52-48 lead. The next week, Newspoll gave Labor a 55-45 lead, and now Ipsos is more in line with Newspoll.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-worst-polls-since-turnbull-chaos-likely-in-victorian-upper-house-107176">Poll wrap: Labor's worst polls since Turnbull; chaos likely in Victorian upper house</a>
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<h2>Essential: 53-47 to Labor</h2>
<p>This week’s <a href="https://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Essential-Report-181218.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted December 13-16 from a sample of 1,026, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down one), 36% Labor (down three), 11% Greens (up one) and 7% One Nation (up one).</p>
<p>Since Morrison became PM, Essential has been consistently better for the Coalition than Newspoll. Last week’s Newspoll gave Labor a 41-35 primary vote lead, while Essential gives the Coalition a 37-36 primary lead.</p>
<p>A net +6 thought 2018 had been good for the Australian economy, but a net zero thought it had been good for their personal financial situation. Australian politics scored a net -50 and the Australian government a net -41. In voters’ predictions about next year, their personal financial situation was at a net +13 and the Australian economy at a net +2.</p>
<p>Since September, Morrison’s attribute scores have declined in positive attributes and gone up in negative attributes, with the largest change a seven-point increase in “erratic”. Morrison leads Shorten on most positive attributes and trails him on most negative ones, but differences are under eight points. An exception is that Morrison leads Shorten by four on being “out of touch”.</p>
<h2>ReachTEL seat polls: huge swing to Labor in Kooyong, little swing in Boothby</h2>
<p>ReachTEL has recently conducted federal seat polls of Kooyong in Victoria and Boothby in South Australia. In <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1074247611610058754">Kooyong</a>, held by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Labor led by 52-48, a 15-point swing to Labor since the 2016 election. In <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1073741759350362112">Boothby</a>, the Liberals led by 51-49, a two-point swing to Labor. </p>
<p>Seat polls are unreliable, but the Victorian state election had large swings to Labor in blue-ribbon Liberal seats in inner Melbourne. Kooyong and Higgins are located in the same territory. As I wrote <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-upper-house-greatly-distorted-by-group-voting-tickets-federal-labor-still-dominant-in-newspoll-108488">last week</a>, ReachTEL also had a massive swing to Labor in Higgins.</p>
<h2>Victorian election statewide two party vote: 57.6-42.4 to Labor</h2>
<p>At the November 24 Victorian state election, the Liberals did not contest <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/RichmondDistrict.html">Richmond</a>. The electoral commission has conducted a two party Labor vs Coalition count in all seats except Richmond. According to analyst Kevin Bonham, Labor’s share of the two party vote ranges from 57.4% to 57.9% depending on how Richmond is treated.</p>
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<p>The measure I prefer is to assign Richmond the same swing as the rest of the state, giving a two party result of 57.6-42.4 to Labor, a 5.6% swing to Labor since the 2014 election. That is only 0.2% less for Labor than at their <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Victorian_state_election">2002 landslide</a> under Steve Bracks. </p>
<p>Labor won 55 of the 88 lower house seats, seven fewer than in <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/state2002resultsummary.html">2002</a>. This was mainly because the Greens won three seats where Labor won the two party vote, and so did independent Russell Northe in <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/MorwellDistrict.html">Morwell</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/historical-fall-of-liberal-seats-in-victoria-micros-likely-to-win-ten-seats-in-upper-house-labor-leads-in-nsw-108047">Historical fall of Liberal seats in Victoria; micros likely to win ten seats in upper house; Labor leads in NSW</a>
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<p>In the upper house, the Greens won just one of 40 seats despite winning 9.3% of the vote. <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/12/group-ticket-voting-wrecks-victorian.html">Bonham</a> says the Greens were disadvantaged by being too big for micro parties to benefit from swapping preferences with them. However, they were also too small to win seats on raw quotas, as the major parties do.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-upper-house-greatly-distorted-by-group-voting-tickets-federal-labor-still-dominant-in-newspoll-108488">Victorian upper house greatly distorted by group voting tickets; federal Labor still dominant in Newspoll</a>
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<p>While the Greens were the biggest victims of the group voting ticket system, they almost cost Fiona Patten her seat. In North Metro, Green Samantha Ratnam made quota before Socialist preferences were distributed, allowing Patten to win. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/12/victorian-legislative-council-2018.html">Bonham</a>, had Ratnam been under quota before Socialist preferences, she would have gone well over quota on their preferences, but her surplus would have gone mainly to Derryn Hinch Justice, and that party would have won the final North Metro seat instead of Patten.</p>
<h2>Democrats gained 40 House seats at US midterms</h2>
<p>All 435 US House seats are up for election every two years. At the November 6 US midterm elections, Democrats <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html">won the House</a> by a 235-199 seat margin, with one seat undecided due to a dispute over alleged fraud by Republican campaigners in <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2018/12/12/drumbeat-for-new-nc-09-election-continues-after-more-allegations-of-election-misconduct-453074">North Carolina’s ninth district</a>. Since the pre-election Congress, this is a 40-seat gain for Democrats. Since the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections">2016 House results</a>, it is a 41-seat gain.</p>
<p>According to Cook Political Report analyst <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0">Dave Wasserman</a>, Democrats won the overall House popular vote by 8.6%. In 2016, Republicans won the House popular vote by 1.1%, and Donald Trump won the presidency despite losing to Hillary Clinton by 2.1% in the national popular vote.</p>
<p>Democrats’ gains mainly occurred in suburbs, where there was a high level of educational attainment. Republicans held up much better in rural America. While Democrats will have 54% of the new House, their seats will represent just 20% of US land area.</p>
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<p>CNN analyst <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/06/politics/latest-house-vote-blue-wave/index.html">Harry Enten</a> says this was Democrats’ largest seat gain in a House election since 1974, and the best performance in popular votes by a pre-election minority House party since records began in 1942. Although <a href="http://www.electproject.org/2018g">turnout was low</a> by Australian standards at 50.3%, this was the highest turnout at a US midterm election in the last 100 years.</p>
<p>Republicans <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html">held the Senate</a> by a 53-47 margin, a two-seat gain for Republicans since the last Congress. However, the 33 regular Senate races were last contested in 2012, when Democrats had a great year. Democrats lost North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri and Florida, but gained Nevada and Arizona. They won the 33 regular elections by 23-10. Including byelections in Minnesota and Mississippi, Democrats won the 35 Senate races by 24-11.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-coalition-morrison-slip-further-in-newspoll-us-democrats-gain-in-late-counting-106766">Poll wrap: Coalition, Morrison slip further in Newspoll; US Democrats gain in late counting</a>
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<p>The new US Congress will be sworn in on January 3. Democrat House leader Nancy Pelosi is very likely to be elected Speaker of the new House.</p>
<p>In November 2020, the US presidency and all of the House are up. Of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections">34 Senate seats</a> that will be up for election, 22 are Republican-held and just 12 Democrat-held. This will be a big opportunity for Democrats to take back the Senate.</p>
<h2>Theresa May wins Conservative confidence vote, 200-117</h2>
<p>To trigger a Conservative motion of confidence in the leader, 15% (48 members in this case) of Conservative MPs must submit letters expressing no-confidence in the leader. This threshold was reached on December 12, but UK Prime Minister Theresa May won a confidence vote of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election#12_December_confidence_vote">all Conservative MPs</a> by a 200-117 margin. May now cannot be challenged for a year.</p>
<p>If anywhere near 117 Conservatives reject May’s Brexit deal, it is very difficult to see it passing the House of Commons. The confidence vote in May does not make a “no deal” Brexit less likely. As I wrote on my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/uks-brexit-debacle-could-lead-to-labour-landslide-greens-not-far-right-surge-in-germany/">personal website</a>, unless the Commons acts in some way, Britain will crash out of the European Union on March 29, 2019.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108907/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest Fairfax-Ipsos and Essential polls give a strong lead to Labor, with some interesting – and variable - detail on the attributes voters see in the leaders of the two major parties.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1045622018-10-15T03:48:46Z2018-10-15T03:48:46ZPoll wrap: Labor slips in Newspoll, but gains in Ipsos, in Wentworth and in Victoria<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240534/original/file-20181015-109216-15fcktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Coalition has clawed back some support since the early days after Malcolm Turnbull was ousted as prime minister.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0ca1d59f2b25ea7d9498bcb9f7e4c1bb?width=650">Newspoll</a>, conducted October 11-14 from a sample of 1,707, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 37% Coalition (up one), 11% Greens (up one) and 6% One Nation (steady).</p>
<p>In contrast to Newspoll, Labor’s lead increased to a 55-45 margin in a Fairfax <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/voters-reject-proposed-changes-federal-anti-discrimination-laws-recommended-review-religious?platform=hootsuite">Ipsos</a> poll, a two-point gain for Labor since four weeks ago. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one), 35% Labor (up four), 15% Greens (steady) and 5% One Nation (down two). This poll was taken October 10-13 from a sample of 1,200.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-trails-47-53-in-newspoll-as-ipsos-finds-74-oppose-law-discriminating-against-gay-students-and-teachers-104906">Coalition trails 47-53% in Newspoll, as Ipsos finds 74% oppose law discriminating against gay students and teachers</a>
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<p>When Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull in late August, Labor’s lead blew out to a 56-44 margin in Newspoll, and the Coalition has since clawed back support. However, these two polls indicate the Coalition’s gains have stalled. Analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1051423513691676672">Kevin Bonham’s aggregate</a> is at 53.9% two party to Labor by last election preferences, a 0.6% gain for Labor since last week.</p>
<p>As usual, the Greens vote in Ipsos is too high, but Newspoll also indicates that the Greens have gained; this is their <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll">highest Newspoll</a> vote since August 2017. The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-09/environment-minister-says-calls-to-end-coal-drawing-long-bow/10354604">Coalition’s dismissal</a> of the IPCC report is a plausible reason for Green gains.</p>
<p>Respondent allocated preferences in Ipsos were 55-45 to Labor, the same as the previous election preference method. Under Turnbull, respondent preferences skewed to the Coalition, but the two Ipsos polls under Morrison have had identical respondent and previous election results. A stronger flow of Greens and Others to Labor could be compensating for One Nation’s flows to the Coalition.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-lead-shrinks-in-federal-ipsos-but-grows-in-victorian-galaxy-trumps-ratings-slip-103320">Poll wrap: Labor's lead shrinks in federal Ipsos, but grows in Victorian Galaxy; Trump's ratings slip</a>
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<p>In Newspoll, 45% were satisfied with Morrison (up one), and 38% were dissatisfied (down one), for a net approval of +7. Bill Shorten’s net approval was up six points to -16. Morrison led Shorten by 45-34 as better PM (45-32 three weeks ago).</p>
<p>Morrison’s first three Newspoll net approval ratings have been +2, +5 and +7. Turnbull’s first three Newspoll net approval ratings after deposing Tony Abbott were +18, +25 and +35. While Morrison’s current ratings are much better than Turnbull before he was deposed, they are far worse than Turnbull in his honeymoon period.</p>
<p>Despite the stronger voting intentions for Labor in Ipsos, 50% approved of Morrison (up four) and 33% disapproved (down three), for a net approval of +17, up seven points. Shorten’s net approval dropped four points to -8. Morrison led Shorten by 48-35 as better PM (47-37 four weeks ago).</p>
<p>By a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-huge-majority-of-australians-oppose-laws-banning-gay-students-and-teachers-20181014-p509kv.html?platform=hootsuite">massive 74-21</a>, voters in Ipsos opposed allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay teachers and students. <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1051409319458037760">Bonham cautions</a> that, as a live phone pollster, Ipsos is prone to social desirability bias, so the real margin for this question is probably closer.</p>
<p>By 64-29, Ipsos voters were dissatisfied with the Coalition on immigration. 45% thought immigration should be reduced, 23% increased, and 29% thought immigration should remain as is.</p>
<p>By 50-32, voters in <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b8917ec92fd91142470cb2ad3f7f91c3?width=650">Newspoll</a> thought Morrison more capable of handling the economy than Shorten (48-31 to Turnbull in May). Morrison also led on cost-of-living 44-43 (43-41 to Shorten over Turnbull in December 2017) and on delivering tax cuts 45-33 (40-33 to Turnbull in December). The economy and tax cuts tend to favour conservatives. </p>
<p>In February 2016, five months after deposing Abbott, Turnbull led Shorten by 58-22 on the economy and 42-33 on cost-of-living.</p>
<p>All of the polls below were taken before the events of last week.</p>
<h2>Essential: 53-47 to Labor</h2>
<p>Last week’s <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Essential-Report-091018.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted October 4-7 from a sample of 1,025, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged on three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 37% Labor (up one), 10% Greens (down two) and 7% One Nation (up two).</p>
<p>43% approved of Morrison (up six since September) and 28% disapproved (down three), for a net approval of +15. Shorten’s net approval fell four points to -12. Morrison led Shorten by 42-27 as better PM (39-27 in September).</p>
<p>57-62% had at least some trust in ABC and SBS TV and radio news and current affairs. Other news sources had between 35% and 48% trust, with Internet blogs at the bottom with just 17% trust. There was little change in trust since October 2017.</p>
<p>36% thought the government had too much influence over the ABC, 16% too little and 17% about the right amount. By 40-34, voters thought news reporting and comment on the ABC was unbiased, with Labor and Greens voters more likely to say the ABC was unbiased.</p>
<p>By 43-35, voters opposed keeping all asylum seekers on Nauru indefinitely. By 42-37, they opposed closing the detention centres and transferring all remaining asylum seekers to Australia. By a narrow 40-39, voters supported transferring families and children from Nauru to Australia.</p>
<h2>Wentworth ReachTEL poll tied 50-50 Liberal vs Labor</h2>
<p>The Wentworth byelection will be held on October 20. A ReachTEL poll for the Refugee Council of Australia, conducted in the first week of October from a sample of 870, had the Liberals’ Dave Sharma and Labor’s Tim Murray tied at 50-50, a one-point gain for Murray since a September 27 ReachTEL poll for independent Licia Heath’s campaign.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/07/supplementary-sunday-smorgasbord/">The Poll Bludger</a>, primary votes, including a forced choice question for initially undecided voters, were 39.9% Sharma (down 3.1%), 25.0% Murray (up 4.3%), 17.3% for independent Kerryn Phelps (down 0.6%), 9.1% Greens (up 2.5%) and 3.6% Heath (down 6.4%). It is likely the Heath campaign poll exaggerated her support.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-phelps-slumps-to-third-in-wentworth-trumps-ratings-up-after-fight-over-kavanaugh-104478">Poll wrap: Phelps slumps to third in Wentworth; Trump's ratings up after fight over Kavanaugh</a>
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<p>This poll also gave a Sharma vs Phelps two candidate estimate, which had Phelps beating Sharma 53-47. However, on the primary vote figures, it is likely Phelps will be eliminated and her preferences distributed between Sharma and Murray. Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals ahead of Labor, doing an about-face on her previous position of putting the Liberals last, appears to have damaged her.</p>
<p>Seat polls are unreliable, so the 50-50 Sharma vs Murray estimate could reasonably be out by up to five points in either direction. The respondent preference flows implied by this poll (about two-thirds of all Other preferences to Labor) are more reasonable than in the previous poll (three-quarters of Other preferences to Labor).</p>
<p>It is disappointing there have been no properly conducted polls of Wentworth since early October, and no media-commmissioned polls at all. Bonham has big issues with a <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/09/wentworth-by-election-prospects-and_14.html">Voter Choice poll</a> that has both Phelps and Murray defeating Sharma by about 55-45 after preferences, due to that poll’s opt-in nature and weighting adjustments. A Liberal internal poll reportedly shows Sharma is just behind Phelps, who is likely to finish ahead of Murray.</p>
<h2>Victorian ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor</h2>
<p>The Victorian election will be held on November 24. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/reachtel-poll-andrews-edges-clear-of-guy-as-state-election-draws-near-20181007-p5089r.html">ReachTEL poll</a> for The Age, conducted October 3 from a sample of 1,240, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since July. <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1048876565617029120">Primary votes</a> were 39.4% Coalition (down 1.4%), 37.6% Labor (up 0.9%), 10.9% Greens (steady) and 4.0% Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.</p>
<p>One Nation had 3.7% in the July poll, but they will not <a href="https://www.google.com.au/search?q=one+nation+victorian+election&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjk4L7CiPbdAhVR7WEKHcqtA-AQ_AUIDigB&biw=1920&bih=1001">contest the election</a>. The Shooters have benefited from One Nation’s absence.</p>
<p>Premier Daniel Andrews led Opposition Leader Matthew Guy by a 51.3-48.7 margin as better Premier, a 0.7% gain for Andrews since July. ReachTEL’s forced choice better PM/Premier questions are usually better for opposition leaders than other polls.</p>
<p>In other forced choice questions, Labor led the Coalition by 54.0-46.0 on dealing with Melbourne’s congestion (Coalition ahead by 50.8-49.2 in July). Labor led by 52.9-47.1 on cost-of-living (50.2-49.8 in July). The Coalition led by 53.9-46.1 on law and order (55.8-44.2 in July) and by 50.4-49.6 on managing growing population (51.6-48.4 in July).</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-reachtel-poll-51-49-to-labor-and-time-running-out-for-upper-house-reform-99595">Victorian ReachTEL poll: 51-49 to Labor, and time running out for upper house reform</a>
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<p>All these issues surveyed have moved towards Labor since July, with a large movement on Melbourne’s congestion. Issue questions usually move in the same direction as voting intentions.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-lead-shrinks-in-federal-ipsos-but-grows-in-victorian-galaxy-trumps-ratings-slip-103320">Galaxy poll</a> in September for the bus industry gave Labor a 53-47 lead. State political parties tend to do better when the opposite party is in power federally. Labor is clearly ahead now, and is likely to win the Victorian election.</p>
<h2>In brief: US midterm elections and far-right likely to win Brazil presidential election</h2>
<p>I had an article for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/14/us-mid-terms-minus-twenty-five-days/">The Poll Bludger</a> on the November 6 US midterm elections published Sunday. Since the fight over judge Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the US Supreme Court, Republicans have gained ground in the Senate, but Democrats have gained in the House. A split decision, where the Democrats win the House, but Republicans keep the Senate, is the most likely outcome.</p>
<p>I also previewed the Brazilian presidential election on my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/wentworth-reachtel-poll-and-left-vs-far-right-contest-in-brazil/">personal website</a>. At the October 7 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_general_election,_2018#Results">first round election</a>, the far-right candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, won 46.0% of the vote, while the left-wing Workers’ Party candidate, Fernando Haddad, had 29.3%. Another left-wing candidate won 12.5%, and a centre-right candidate won 4.8%. </p>
<p>As Bolsonaro did not win over 50% in the first round, a runoff will be held on October 28 between Bolsonaro and Haddad. The three <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Brazilian_general_election,_2018#Second_round">runoff polls</a> taken so far give Bolsonaro a seven to fifteen point lead over Haddad. Bolsonaro has made <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro#Views_on_the_Brazilian_military_dictatorship">comments sympathetic</a> to the 1964-85 Brazilian military dictatorship.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104562/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest polls are a mixed bag for the Morrison government: there were gains in primary and two-party preferred vote, but the polls still have Labor in an election-winning position.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1033202018-09-17T05:26:19Z2018-09-17T05:26:19ZPoll wrap: Labor’s lead shrinks in federal Ipsos, but grows in Victorian Galaxy; Trump’s ratings slip<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236589/original/file-20180917-96155-11ix7h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The latest Fairfax Ipsos poll gives Labor a 53-47 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since mid-August.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s federal <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/steady-performance-morrison-fairfax-ipsos-poll?platform=hootsuite">Ipsos poll</a> for the Fairfax papers, conducted September 12-15 from a sample of 1,200, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since mid-August. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (down four), 15% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady) and 13% for all Others (up two). The respondent allocated preference figure was also 53-47 to Labor.</p>
<p>Newspoll and Essential last week respectively gave Labor 42% and 37% of the primary vote, with the Greens at 10% in both polls. At the 2016 election, Ipsos consistently had the Greens higher than other polls, and the election results were in line with the other polls, not Ipsos.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-house-results-and-a-polling-critique-62974">Final House results and a polling critique</a>
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<p>Ipsos is the only Australian pollster that still uses live phone interviews (mobile and landline) for its polls. All other pollsters now use either robopolling, online methods, or a combination of the two. However, live phone polling cannot be the only explanation for the high Greens vote, as Newspoll and Ipsos’ predecessor in Fairfax, Nielsen, once used live phone polling without a persistently high Greens’ vote.</p>
<p>While Ipsos’ primary votes are weird, the two party vote is more volatile than other pollsters, but it usually tracks other polling well. There may have been a decline for Labor because voters are no longer focused on the chaotic events leading to Malcolm Turnbull’s ousting as PM.</p>
<p>The last Ipsos poll (55-45 to Labor) was released on August 20, and four days later, Turnbull was gone. While this poll was not the reason for Turnbull’s downfall, it may have been the “straw that broke the camel’s back”. Two <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-hard-right-terminated-turnbull-only-to-see-scott-morrison-become-pm-102036">ReachTEL polls</a> taken in the week of Turnbull’s ousting gave Labor a 51-49 and a 53-47 lead, so the 55-45 Ipsos lead was probably an outlier.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-coalition-slumps-to-55-45-deficit-in-ipsos-and-large-swing-to-federal-labor-in-queensland-101804">Poll wrap: Coalition slumps to 55-45 deficit in Ipsos, and large swing to federal Labor in Queensland</a>
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<p>Scott Morrison debuted in Ipsos with a 46% approve, 36% disapprove rating, for a net approval of +10. The August Ipsos gave Turnbull a net -2 approval, but the July poll gave him a net +17 approval. Shorten’s net approval rose seven points to -4. Morrison led Shorten by 47-37 as better PM (48-36 to Turnbull in August).</p>
<h2>Wentworth candidate poll</h2>
<p>We now know that Dave Sharma is the Liberal candidate for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-wentworth-preselectors-rebuff-to-morrison-caps-week-of-mayhem-103216">October 20 Wentworth byelection</a>, and that former AMA President Kerryn Phelps will stand as an independent. A ReachTEL poll conducted August 27 correctly listed Sharma as the Liberal candidate, and asked for two prominent independents, Phelps and Alex Greenwich; Greenwich is not running.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-retains-big-newspoll-lead-savage-anti-liberal-swing-in-wagga-wagga-wentworth-is-tied-102771">Poll wrap: Labor retains big Newspoll lead; savage anti-Liberal swing in Wagga Wagga; Wentworth is tied</a>
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<p>The results in this ReachTEL poll were 34.6% for the Liberals’ Sharma, 20.3% for Labor’s Tim Murray, 11.8% for Phelps, 11.2% for Greenwich, 8.9% Greens and 13.3% for all Others.</p>
<p>This poll was taken on the Monday after Turnbull was ousted, and the Coalition’s polling could improve by the byelection date. Sharma could also lift his profile before the byelection.</p>
<h2>Victorian Galaxy poll: 53-47 to Labor</h2>
<p>The Victorian election will be held on November 24. A <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnQhOfYV4AAi-4j.jpg">state Galaxy poll</a> for the bus industry gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since an early August Galaxy for The Herald Sun. No fieldwork dates, sample size or primary votes have been released yet.</p>
<p>Going back to April, there have been three successive Victorian polls with Labor just ahead by 51-49 from Newspoll, ReachTEL and Galaxy. It is likely Labor’s larger lead in this poll was due to a backlash over the dumping of Turnbull. On my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/reachtel-50-50-tie-in-wentworth-and-where-morrison-could-have-problems/">personal website</a>, an analysis suggested that the Coalition under Morrison was vulnerable among the well-educated, the young and in Victoria.</p>
<p>40% approved of Premier Daniel Andrews and 42% disapproved for a net approval of -2. Just 25% approved of Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and 44% disapproved for a net approval of -19.</p>
<p>In July I wrote that, unless legislation to abolish the group voting ticket system for the Victorian upper house passed both chambers by September 20, group voting would be used at the state election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-reachtel-poll-51-49-to-labor-and-time-running-out-for-upper-house-reform-99595">Victorian ReachTEL poll: 51-49 to Labor, and time running out for upper house reform</a>
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<p>With just three days until the final sitting date of parliament before the election, there is no proposal for upper house reform. It is very disappointing that a left-of-centre government has not even attempted to improve the upper house voting system.</p>
<h2>Wagga Wagga final result: independent McGirr defeats Liberals 59.6-40.4</h2>
<p>As I reported <a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-retains-big-newspoll-lead-savage-anti-liberal-swing-in-wagga-wagga-wentworth-is-tied-102771">last week</a>, a byelection in the NSW state seat of Wagga Wagga was held on September 8. The Liberals held Wagga Wagga continuously since 1957.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wagga-wagga-by-election-2018/results/">Primary votes</a> were 25.5% Liberal (down 28.3% since the 2015 election), 25.4% for independent Joe McGirr, 23.7% Labor (down 4.4%), 10.6% for independent Paul Funnell (up 0.9%) and 9.9% Shooters. After preferences, McGirr defeated the Liberals by 59.6-40.4, a 22.5% swing against the Liberals. 47% of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wagga-wagga-by-election-2018/commentary/">preferences from the other candidates</a> flowed to McGirr, 15% to the Liberals and the rest exhausted under NSW’s optional preferential voting.</p>
<h2>Trump’s approval rating falls from 42% to 40% since late August</h2>
<p>In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=midterms-header">FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate</a>, Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen from about 42% in late August to 40% now. Trump’s ratings are their lowest since February.</p>
<p>I wrote a detailed analysis on the November 6 US midterm elections for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/15/us-mid-term-elections-minus-seven-half-weeks/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday. Trump’s ratings are highly correlated with Republican performance in the race for Congress, so worse ratings for Trump will result in larger Democratic leads in the race for Congress.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103320/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fairfax Ipsos gives Labor another win on two-party preferred, albeit with weird primary vote numbers, while the Labor party in Victoria has another poll win just over two months ahead of the state election.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1018042018-08-20T04:36:33Z2018-08-20T04:36:33ZPoll wrap: Coalition slumps to 55-45 deficit in Ipsos, and large swing to federal Labor in Queensland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232621/original/file-20180820-30611-dfkhe0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The latest Fairfax Ipsos poll has brought bad news for Malcolm Turnbul - and good news for Bill Shorten.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-voter-support-collapses-as-peter-dutton-leans-towards-challenging-malcolm-turnbull-20180819-p4zye9.html">Fairfax Ipsos</a> poll, conducted August 15-18 from a sample of 1,200, gave Labor a landslide 55-45 lead, a four-point gain for Labor since late July. Primary votes were 35% Labor (up one), 33% Coalition (down six), 13% Greens (up one) and 19% for all Others (up four). Ipsos consistently has the Greens higher than other polls.</p>
<p>The respondent allocated two party figure was also 55-45 to Labor. During this term, Labor has usually performed worse on respondent allocated preferences than using the previous election method, and the Ipsos July poll had a 50-50 tie by this measure.</p>
<p>46% approved of Malcolm Turnbull (down nine), and 48% disapproved (up ten), for a net approval of -2, down 19 points since July. This is Turnbull’s first negative net approval in Ipsos since December 2017; Ipsos gives him better ratings than other pollsters. Bill Shorten’s net approval was -11, up five points. Turnbull led Shorten by 48-36 as better PM, a big decline from a 57-30 lead in July.</p>
<p>By 47-44, voters supported cutting the company tax rate from 30% to 25% over the next ten years (49-40 in April). In an additional question from last week’s Newspoll, voters thought the Senate should block, rather than pass, the tax cuts for companies with a turnover over $50 million by a 51-36 margin.</p>
<p>56% thought the government is doing too little to address climate change, 28% thought they are doing about the right amount, and just 13% thought they are doing too much. By 54-22, voters supported the National Energy Guarantee (NEG), including over 59% support from both major parties’ voters.</p>
<p>In last week’s article, I referred to divisions within the Coalition over the NEG and the company tax cuts as an explanation for Turnbull’s Newspoll ratings slump. Since then, those divisions have became much worse.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-turnbulls-newspoll-ratings-slump-labor-leads-in-victoria-longman-preferences-helped-lnp-101380">Poll wrap: Turnbull’s Newspoll ratings slump; Labor leads in Victoria; Longman preferences helped LNP</a>
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<p>In an attempt to fend off a potential challenge from Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, Turnbull on <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-20/cabinet-ministers-admit-disunity-amid-turnbull-dutton-spill-talk/10138850">Monday abandoned</a> the emissions target part of the NEG, in effect yielding to the 13% who say the government is doing too much on climate change. </p>
<p>This 13% of all voters is greatly over-represented within the parliamentary Coalition and among right-wing media commentators. By reserving their right to cross the floor on the NEG, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/15/coalition-mps-lobby-colleagues-against-crossing-the-floor-on-energy">some Coalition MPs</a> have shown how out of touch they are with the electorate on climate change. This probably also contributed to the swing in this Ipsos poll.</p>
<p>Despite Turnbull’s current woes, I think it would be a mistake for the Liberals to replace him with Dutton. While Dutton would appeal to One Nation voters who have left the Coalition over dissatisfaction with Turnbull’s perceived moderation, more moderate Coalition voters would likely desert. About 60% of One Nation preferences will probably return to the Coalition, but if moderates leave, Labor is likely to benefit directly from the Coalition’s lost primary support.</p>
<p>Only three weeks ago, just before and immediately after the July 28 Super Saturday byelections, the Coalition and Turnbull had some of their best polling this term. Ipsos is more volatile than other pollsters, and it was taken at a time of great division within the Coalition. Now that Turnbull has dumped the emissions targets, the internal divisions may subside, and the Coalition’s polling could improve.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-update-trumps-ratings-held-up-by-us-economy-australian-polls-steady-101175">Polls update: Trump’s ratings held up by US economy; Australian polls steady</a>
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<p>On August 15, the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/6345.0Media%20Release1Jun%202018">ABS reported</a> that wages grew at a 0.6% rate in the June quarter. Continued slow wage growth is likely to be a crucial issue at the next election.</p>
<p>Fieldwork for the two polls below was taken before last week’s parliamentary sitting.</p>
<h2>Federal Queensland Galaxy: 50-50 tie</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/08/14/essential-research-52-48-labor-21/">Queensland Galaxy poll</a>, conducted August 8-9 from a sample of 839, had a 50-50 tie, a two-point gain for Labor since May. Primary votes were 37% LNP (down three), 34% Labor (up one), 10% One Nation (steady) and 9% Greens (down one). This poll was conducted from the same sample that gave state Labor a 51-49 lead (see <a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-turnbulls-newspoll-ratings-slump-labor-leads-in-victoria-longman-preferences-helped-lnp-101380">last week’s article</a>).</p>
<p>This poll represents a 4% swing to Labor in Queensland since the 2016 election, and such a swing would probably result in Labor gaining many seats. According to The Poll Bludger’s <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/">BludgerTrack</a>, eight LNP Queensland seats are held by less than 4%, including Dutton’s Dickson (a 2.0% margin).</p>
<p>There was no One Nation candidate in <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-252.htm">Dickson in 2016</a>, when Dutton suffered a 5.1% swing against. A redistribution slightly increased Dutton’s margin from 1.6% to the current 2.0%. If Dutton becomes PM, he will probably receive an extra personal vote boost in Dickson, which could enable him to hold it. Otherwise, Dutton is vulnerable to the Queensland-wide swing in this Galaxy poll.</p>
<p>56% of Queenslanders <a href="https://twitter.com/PollBludger/status/1029467822647214080">opposed tax cuts</a> for companies with turnovers over $50 million, just 16% fully supported these cuts, and 12% wanted the big banks excluded from the tax cuts. Many pollsters are making mistakes by asking whether voters support tax cuts for “all” businesses; the issue is the tax cuts for businesses with turnover over $50 million, not all businesses.</p>
<h2>National Essential: 52-48 to Labor</h2>
<p>Last week’s national <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Essential-Report-140818-1.pdf">Essential</a> poll, conducted August 9-12 from a sample of 1,032, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down two), 37% Labor (up one), 10% Greens (steady) and 6% One Nation (steady). Essential’s two party estimate uses 2016 election preference flows and it would probably be 51-49 using Newspoll’s new method.</p>
<p>Turnbull’s net approval dropped three points since early July to a net zero, while Shorten’s net approval increased six points to -10. Turnbull led Shorten by 41-27 as better PM (42-25 in July).</p>
<p>By 54-25, voters thought the current drought across eastern Australia is likely to be linked to climate change.</p>
<p>88% approved of drought relief for agriculture, 76% of subsidies for renewable energy and 73% of the private health insurance rebate. Just 33% approved of the fuel rebate for the mining industry and 36% approved of negative gearing.</p>
<p>Voters were not alarmed by the proposed merger between Nine and Fairfax. By 47-28, they thought the merger would be good for quality of news coverage, and by 42-34 they thought it would be good for diversity of news media.</p>
<p>In the context of large Internet company bans on alt-right speakers, 48% thought that an individual’s right to free speech does not mean these companies need to provide a platform, while 32% thought these companies should allow such people to speak even if they disagree with the speaker.</p>
<h2>Electoral system not to blame for Fraser Anning</h2>
<p>There has been much controversy following Queensland Senator Fraser Anning’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-14/fraser-anning-maiden-speech-immigration-solution/10120270">speech to the Senate</a> on August 14. There have been suggestions the electoral system is at fault as <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-QLD.htm">Anning won just 19 personal</a> votes at the 2016 double dissolution election.</p>
<p>Anning was the third candidate on One Nation’s Queensland Senate ticket. One Nation won 1.19 quotas, electing Pauline Hanson immediately. They then performed very well on preferences from populist parties, earning a second seat for Malcolm Roberts, who had just 77 personal votes.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-senate-results-30-coalition-26-labor-9-greens-4-one-nation-3-nxt-4-others-63449">Final Senate results: 30 Coalition, 26 Labor, 9 Greens, 4 One Nation, 3 NXT, 4 Others</a>
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<p>In October 2017, the High Court <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-41772372">disqualified Roberts</a> over the citizenship fiasco, and Anning was elected to replace him.</p>
<p>Other than in Tasmania and the ACT, whose state electoral systems encourage below the line voting in the Senate, over <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2016/08/senate-reform-performance-review-part-2.html">90% of Senate votes</a> at the 2016 election were above the line ticket votes, according to analyst Kevin Bonham. In most cases, the number of personal below the line votes received by a candidate is irrelevant to the electoral process.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101804/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest polls show the government’s internal divisions are taking their toll- and some of its members are seriously out of step with the general public on energy policy.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/579732016-05-11T20:09:57Z2016-05-11T20:09:57ZElection explainer: what are the opinion polls and how accurate are they?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120949/original/image-20160503-19557-15cz8mp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia’s system of compulsory voting makes the pollsters’ job much easier than under voluntary voting.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many opinion polls will be published during the election campaign. Most use either live phone polling (calls made by a human), robopolling (computer calls) or an online panel (poll sample selected from a large database of potential respondents).</p>
<p>Australia’s system of compulsory voting makes the pollsters’ job much easier than under voluntary voting. Polls in Australia can weight their data to reflect the demographic breakdowns given by the census, while overseas pollsters have to estimate who is likely to vote. Final pre-election Australian polls have usually been accurate, at least on primary votes.</p>
<p>There will be many individual seat polls during the election campaign. Seat polls have not performed well in Australia and we should be sceptical of them. If a seat poll gives an outcome that would be plausible given national polling, we can accept it more easily than a seat poll that shows an outcome very different to what would be expected by national polling.</p>
<p>Below is a guide to all the major national polls. Other national polls are likely to be released, but the six below are the polls that do at least some polling outside of election campaigns, so we can track their behaviour against other polls over a long time.</p>
<p>A poll that “leans” to one side or the other relative to other polls is not necessarily wrong; it may be that the other polls are wrong. However, a “biased” poll is one that election results show to be wrong. </p>
<p>All polls take a long break over summer; the frequency entry excludes these breaks.</p>
<h2>Newspoll</h2>
<p><strong>Publisher:</strong> The Australian <br>
<strong>Methodology:</strong> Online panel and robopolling, which does not include mobiles. <br>
<strong>Sample size:</strong> About 1,600-1,800 for most surveys. <br>
<strong>Frequency:</strong> Usually once a fortnight, but three-week breaks are not uncommon. Once a week during election campaigns. <br></p>
<p>Newspoll is the poll the political media obsess about most. However, the current version is not the old version, which was conducted by landline-only live polling. </p>
<p>The old version tended to be bouncy, with some big poll-to-poll shifts for no apparent reason. The new Newspoll seems much less prone to random fluctuations. However, it appears to lean a little to Labor, relative to other polls. </p>
<p>The new Newspoll, which started in mid-2015, has not been tested at an election. Galaxy Research conducts the new Newspoll.</p>
<h2>Ipsos</h2>
<p><strong>Publisher:</strong> Fairfax Media <br>
<strong>Methodology:</strong> Live phone polling, which includes mobiles. <br>
<strong>Sample size:</strong> 1,400 <br>
<strong>Frequency:</strong> Monthly, but will appear more frequently during election campaigns. <br></p>
<p>Fairfax had used Nielsen until mid-2014; Ipsos is the replacement for Nielsen. The sample size and methodology are the same as for Nielsen. </p>
<p>At both the previous New South Wales and Victorian state elections, Ipsos’ final poll was close on the Coalition primary vote, but underestimated Labor and overestimated the Greens. Recent Ipsos Federal polls have had high primary votes for the Greens and low Labor votes, relative to other polls. </p>
<p>Generally, Ipsos uses the previous election method as its headline figure. But, it asks the respondents to allocate their preferences.</p>
<h2>ReachTEL</h2>
<p><strong>Publisher:</strong> Most frequently Channel 7 News, but has occasionally appeared in Fairfax and local Tasmanian and Western Australian papers. Also does much private polling. Most ReachTEL public polls can be found at the <a href="https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/">ReachTEL blog</a>. <br>
<strong>Methodology:</strong> Robopolling, with mobiles included. <br>
<strong>Sample size:</strong> 2,400 to more than 3,000. All interviews are conducted in one night. <br>
<strong>Frequency:</strong> Monthly, but will appear more frequently during election campaigns. <br></p>
<p>ReachTEL was Australia’s first robopollster. At the 2013 federal and 2014 Victorian elections, ReachTEL underestimated the Coalition’s primary vote and overestimated the Greens. </p>
<p>However, it was very close on all parties’ votes at the 2015 Queensland and NSW elections, though the change in preferencing behaviour at the Queensland election meant that ReachTEL overestimated the Coalition after preferences. </p>
<p>Federally, there have been periods when ReachTEL has leaned to one party or the other relative to other polls.</p>
<h2>Morgan</h2>
<p><strong>Publisher:</strong> Self-published at <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll">Roy Morgan online</a>. <br>
<strong>Methodology:</strong> SMS and face-to-face polling. <br>
<strong>Sample size:</strong> Usually 2,500 to 3,400. <br>
<strong>Frequency:</strong> Usually once a fortnight, with results based on interviews conducted over the previous two weekends. Once a week during election campaigns. <br></p>
<p>Until 2013, nearly all Morgan polls were conducted face-to-face and were clearly biased against the Coalition. Final pre-election Morgan polls were conducted by live phone interviews and were much more accurate. </p>
<p>Morgan’s SMS and face-to-face federal polling has leaned to Labor, but not to the extent that only face-to-face did. When Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, Morgan swung to favouring the Coalition relative to other polls, but this lean has decreased as the left have become disillusioned. </p>
<p>Morgan’s SMS-only polls have been disasters at the recent Victorian and NSW elections. Like Ipsos, Morgan gives the respondent-allocated preference figure, and in fact uses this figure as the headline number.</p>
<h2>Essential</h2>
<p><strong>Publisher:</strong> Crikey, but also published at <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport">Essential Report</a>. <br>
<strong>Methodology:</strong> Online panel. <br>
<strong>Sample size:</strong> 1,700 to 2,000 for a normal two-week sample. <br>
<strong>Frequency:</strong> Once a week, but voting intention results are usually based on the last two weeks. Every week, one new week’s fieldwork is added and fieldwork from two weeks ago is dropped. Questions other than voting intentions are based on only one week’s sample. <br></p>
<p>The old Newspoll had too much poll-to-poll bounciness; Essential has too little. There have been many instances where Essential has had the same voting intentions, week after week, even when other polls were showing a clear trend to one side or the other. </p>
<p>When Essential does change, the change is often not replicated in other polls. Essential did not perform well at the last federal election, or at state elections.</p>
<h2>Galaxy</h2>
<p><strong>Publisher:</strong> News Limited tabloids <br>
<strong>Methodology:</strong> Online panel and live phone, including mobiles. <br>
<strong>Sample size:</strong> 1,200 to 1,700. <br>
<strong>Frequency:</strong> Infrequent outside election campaigns. <br></p>
<p>Prior to the 2013 election, Galaxy was a live phone poll. It has now added an online panel component, so its current methodology is different from that used at the 2013 election. </p>
<p>Since it started conducting Newspoll, there have only been two Galaxy-labelled polls, but I expect more Galaxy polls to appear in the election campaign. </p>
<p>Galaxy had a very strong performance in tracking voting intentions during the 2013 campaign. It also performed well at the recent NSW, Queensland and Victorian elections.</p>
<h2>Final pre-election poll tables</h2>
<p>The tables for the final pre-election polls are below. Poll numbers in bold are those where a poll was within 1% of the election outcome. The pollsters were quite accurate on the primary votes at the Queensland 2015 election; the change in preferencing behaviour from the 2012 to the 2015 election caused a two-party miss.</p>
<p><strong>Federal election, September 2013</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Victorian election, November 2014</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Queensland election, January 2015</strong></p>
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<p><strong>NSW election, March 2015</strong></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Final pre-election Australian polls have usually been accurate, at least on primary votes.Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/590542016-05-08T14:40:47Z2016-05-08T14:40:47ZCoalition and Labor close in Ipsos and Newspoll as election contest begins<p>As the 2016 election campaign formally begins, new polling shows Scott Morrison’s budget has failed to inspire and the government and Labor are locked in a close race.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election-2016-eight-weeks-to-go-and-its-too-close-to-call-20160508-gop277">Fairfax Ipsos poll</a> has the Coalition leading marginally – 51-49% on a two party basis, but polling 50-50 when people state their preferences rather than preferences being distributed according to the 2013 election. Newspoll in Monday’s Australian has Labor <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-turnbull-to-launch-campaign/news-story/3d577451288ae3aa5b2bad6e36ea4a9f">retaining a 51-49% two-party lead</a>.</p>
<p>It wasn’t expected that people would see the budget as making them personally better off – because mostly it won’t – but it is trailing on “fairness”, a key election issue.</p>
<p>In the Ipsos poll 37% said the budget was fair, while 43% disagreed, a net of minus six. Just under four in ten (39%) were satisfied with the budget, with 46% dissatisfied. This net satisfaction of minus seven is much lower than the 2015 budget’s plus 17. Nearly four in ten say the budget will leave them personally worse off; almost a quarter say they will be better off. </p>
<p>In Newspoll, 39% said they would be worse off from the budget; 34% said it would be good for the economy, 37% were undecided and 29% thought it would be bad for the economy. </p>
<p>Malcolm Turnbull’s approval has taken another knock in the Ipsos poll. His net approval, now plus eight, is down five points since April. Bill Shorten’s net approval, at minus 11, is up 11 points in a month. In Newspoll Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating is minus 11, while Shorten’s is minus 19.</p>
<p>Turnbull retains a strong lead as preferred prime minister in both polls – 51-29% in Ipsos and 49-27% in Newspoll.</p>
<p>The actual start of the campaign had a feel of anti-climax. We’ve known for weeks there will be a double dissolution on July 2, and for days that the announcement would be Sunday.</p>
<p>Nor were the pitches anything other than the expected. Turnbull reprised his favourite lines about exciting times, confidence, optimism and self-belief, spruiked his government’s “plan”, and attacked Labor. Shorten focused on fairness, and appealed to voters to “trust” Labor on a host of fronts, including “to conduct budget repair that is fair”.</p>
<p>Turnbull, who never thinks a touch, or a tonne, of hyperbole hurts, was strong on the rhetoric. Shorten, back in Beaconsfield – where he became a nationally known figure – for the tenth anniversary of the dramatic mine rescue, could extrapolate from the memory of that endeavour to the message “that Australia succeeds when we work together with common endeavour and shared reward”.</p>
<p>Turnbull is “centrist” by inclination and Shorten is from Labor’s right and has had wide connections in the business world (in 2006 he flew to Beaconsfield in a plane provided by Dick Pratt). Nevertheless this is an election full of major differences over policy, with Labor opposing almost all of the government’s phased-in company tax cut and the Coalition accusing the opposition of class warfare. There are gulfs on climate change, education and health spending, and negative gearing.</p>
<p>Each side is trying to reinforce a cardboard cut-out image of the other’s leader: Turnbull, as the extremely wealthy, out-of-touch prime minister who looks after his own; Shorten, as the ex-union figure who wrote in his just-published book: “As Labor leader, I still think like an organiser”. </p>
<p>Labor is helped in its stereotyping of Turnbull by the fact business is the main beneficiary in his government’s first budget. Labor’s resistance to the industrial legislation can be used to paint Shorten as soft on union bad behaviour.</p>
<p>Thanks to Tony Abbott’s strong win in 2013, Turnbull has a good coating of fat. Shorten has to win 19 seats in net terms for majority government; Turnbull can lose up to 13 and still have a majority. The territory between gets to minority government, with shades of 2010.</p>
<p>While opinion poll headlines show national swings, there are variations between states, regions and seats. Tim Colebatch provides a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-it-could-be-another-nailbiter--here-are-the-numbers-you-need-to-know-20160506-gonze1.html">useful rundown of the states</a>; Antony Green <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/electorates-by-state/">lists electorates by state</a> among the wealth of information on the ABC’s site. Much of the fight will be NSW and Queensland, given the number of seats in play; Turnbull is in Brisbane on Monday and Shorten will also be in Queensland. </p>
<p>Turnbull is favourite as the marathon starts. The nature and distribution of the marginals helps him.</p>
<p>The government’s ratings and his popularity have been falling, and he appeals more in some areas than in others. But are people really prepared to throw out a leader, whom they have always liked, after less than eight months? If Shorten became prime minister, that would be five prime ministers since the 2010 election - Gillard, Rudd, Abbott, Turnbull and Shorten. Voters doubt this will happen: in the Ipsos poll 53% think the Coalition will win and only 24% believe Labor will.</p>
<p>Having said that, favourites lose (John Hewson in 1993) and the electorate is fickle – people are cynical, with an “off with their heads” attitude when feeling discontented or let down. Shorten, with a steadily improving performance in recent months, has been on a roll. Turnbull and the government ended budget week with their stupid shenanigans over the ten-year cost of the business tax plan.</p>
<p>An eight-week campaign is a long course, and neither leader has led his team around this heavy track before. How each will stand up to the rigour of what’s ahead is anybody’s guess. If you are placing bets on this election, keep them modest.</p>
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As the 2016 election campaign formally begins, new polling shows Scott Morrison’s budget has failed to inspire and the government and Labor are locked in a close race. The Fairfax Ipsos poll has the Coalition…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/547082016-02-14T10:15:48Z2016-02-14T10:15:48ZGovernment leads 52-48% in Fairfax-Ipsos poll as tax battle turns to negative gearing<p>Fairfax-Ipsos’ first poll of 2016 has the government ahead 52-48% on the two-party vote and Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 64-19% as preferred prime minister.</p>
<p>While the numbers for the Coalition and Turnbull have notably come off since the honeymoon levels of the last Ipsos poll in November – then the two-party vote was 56-44% – they are broadly in line with Newspoll a fortnight ago, when the government led Labor 53-47% and Turnbull was ahead as better prime minister 59-20%.</p>
<p>In a result now much less relevant than it would have been a few weeks ago, when the government was floating a rise in the GST to finance big income tax cuts, 57% oppose such a tax mix switch while 37% would support it. The <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-poll-voters-cool-on-malcolm-turnbull-as-coalition-support-drops-below-2013-election-levels-20160214-gmtnd1.html">poll also showed</a> very strong opposition to an early election – 74% believe the government should go full term.</p>
<p>The polling messages are clear and consistent. The Turnbull government remains in a solid position although, in voting terms, its ascendancy is not overwhelming, with a 1.5% swing against the Coalition compared with the last election. In their head-to-head popularity, Turnbull and Shorten are in different leagues.</p>
<p>Polling apart, however, Labor is starting to give the government a tougher run for its money.</p>
<p>Not so long ago, Shorten was being ridiculed for not delivering a great deal in policy while heralding 2015 as Labor’s “year of ideas”. Now, especially but not only on the central issue of tax, Shorten has bundles of robust policies out while the most notable policy story on the government’s side has been Turnbull walking away from a big GST-based tax switch.</p>
<p>At the weekend Shorten released Labor’s plan to limit negative gearing to investments in new housing from July 1, 2017. An ALP government would also halve the capital gains discount (from 50% to 25%) for assets purchased after July 1, 2017. With both measures, there would be full grandfathering for arrangements in place before the start date. The policy would raise an estimated A$565 million over the forward estimates and $32.1 billion over a decade.</p>
<p>The government, without any aspects of its tax plan out, is being caught short. Unlike the Abbott government, Turnbull and his treasurer, Scott Morrison, have both negative gearing and superannuation “on the table” for tax changes, but Shorten now has policies for each.</p>
<p>The government cannot afford to underestimate Labor on tax. Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen and Shadow Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh, formerly an economics professor at the Australian National University, are proving a formidable team. Morrison increasingly will have to engage on the detailed ins and outs in disputing their policies.</p>
<p>Morrison responded to Shorten’s negative gearing initiative by saying it would raise “very little revenue” in the forward estimates period. He also said it “could also have some very nasty consequences for everyday mum and dad investors”.</p>
<p>“I have always believed that negative gearing gives hard-working Australians a chance to build some wealth they would not otherwise get,” he wrote in the Sunday Telegraph. But he went on: “The government is keeping an open mind on this issue as we prepare this year’s budget”.</p>
<p>Morrison’s attack will be subject to a discount factor until he has his own option in the public arena. On the other hand, the fierce reaction from industry stakeholders to Labor’s announcement provides a gauge of the backlash to doing anything in this area.</p>
<p>Chris Richardson, of Deloitte Access Economics, believes that the cut in the capital gains discount, which he favours, is the more important of the two Labor measures and makes unnecessary the negative gearing proposal. “I wouldn’t have done [the latter] but it is not a disaster,” he says.</p>
<p>Likening the current tax debate to a chess game, Richardson says that “it would be nice if the government moved a chess piece on the capital gains discount, now that Labor has given them wriggle room”.</p>
<p>On Wednesday Morrison appears at the National Press Club. He will give an update on the tax reform process, outlining the consequences now the GST-based plan has been kiboshed.</p>
<p>For Morrison, who has had some bad publicity lately, it is a highly important outing.</p>
<p>While a major tax switch is now not on, Morrison is still heavily focused on the challenge of bracket creep. When the government released its modelling last week revealing the negligible growth dividend from the switch, Morrison concentrated on another aspect. This showed the average personal income tax rate is set to be 24.4% in 2016-17, rising to 26.6% by 2020-21. Without countervailing action, this would reduce growth by 0.35%, according to the modelling.</p>
<p>Dealing with bracket creep would cost about $5 billion a year, in contrast to the big structural switch that would cost more than $30 billion. But it would still require a suite of significant changes in the tax area to find funds as well as perhaps some spending cuts.</p>
<p>Labor wants its tax changes to finance its expensive spending programs for schools and hospitals. Morrison wants whatever is done on tightening aspects of the tax system to pay for (now modest) income tax cuts. The political equation is whether the popularity of the varying positives that both sides offer will be greater than the unpopularity of the assorted measures proposed to fund them.</p>
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Fairfax-Ipsos’ first poll of 2016 has the government ahead 52-48% on the two-party vote and Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 64-19% as preferred prime minister. While the numbers for the Coalition…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.