tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/flight-ps752-80926/articlesFlight PS752 – The Conversation2020-01-23T19:24:38Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1304322020-01-23T19:24:38Z2020-01-23T19:24:38ZDespite shows of unity, Iran is more divided than ever after Soleimani killing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311670/original/file-20200123-162246-3xmom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=73%2C34%2C1037%2C582&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters hold flowers during protests at Amir Kabir University in Tehran, in tribute to the victims of the crash of Flight PS752. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The two major events that have shaken Iran in recent weeks have also had major internal repercussions. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://apnews.com/5597ff0f046a67805cc233d5933a53ed">assassination of Qassem Soleimani by an American</a> drone lit the fuse, sending shock waves around the world and increasing the risk of an escalation of armed conflict between Iran and the United States. Following this assassination, Iran was the scene of massive demonstrations to commemorate the Iranian general and denounce the Americans. </p>
<p>A few days later, as Iran launched a retaliatory raid on U.S. bases in Iraq, <a href="https://theconversation.com/flight-ps752-a-deadly-combination-of-irans-recklessness-and-incompetence-129749">a Ukrainian civilian plane crashed near Tehran airport, killing 176 people, including 57 Canadians</a>. This tragedy provoked anti-regime demonstrations this time. Thousands of Iranians took to the streets, angry at their government <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51073621">when it admitted responsibility for the crash</a> after three days of denial. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310971/original/file-20200120-69539-1kdz6uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310971/original/file-20200120-69539-1kdz6uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310971/original/file-20200120-69539-1kdz6uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310971/original/file-20200120-69539-1kdz6uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310971/original/file-20200120-69539-1kdz6uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310971/original/file-20200120-69539-1kdz6uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310971/original/file-20200120-69539-1kdz6uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Debris from the plane crash near Tehran airport.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Canadian Press/AP-Ebrahim Noroozi</span></span>
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<p>Thus, in the space of 10 days, Iran was the scene of pro- and anti-regime demonstrations. </p>
<p>During the pro-government demonstrations, some commentators claimed that <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/reza-marashi-interview-iran-soleimani-assassination-934852/">Iranians were rallying around the regime after the assassination of Soleimani</a>. Was this really the case? Did the assassination of the general really change Iranians’ perceptions of the regime? </p>
<p>To better understand the current context in Iran, it should be noted that Soleimani was assassinated a month and a half after <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/11/iran-anti-government-protests-us-support/">the largest anti-regime demonstrations</a>, which took place last November. These protests were so threatening to the regime that Supreme Leader Khamenei led the deadliest crackdown since 1979, saying: “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-protests-specialreport/special-report-irans-leader-ordered-crackdown-on-unrest-do-whatever-it-takes-to-end-it-idUSKBN1YR0QR">The Islamic Republic is in danger. Everything necessary must be done. This is an order</a>.” </p>
<p>As many as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/06/dont-believe-iranian-propaganda-about-mourning-soleimani/">1,500 protesters were reportedly killed</a> in November. The repression was so severe that the security forces even prevented mourning ceremonies for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/12/26/an-iranian-couple-wanted-mourn-son-killed-protests-now-they-are-jail/">some victims</a>.</p>
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À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/violent-crackdown-against-iraq-protests-exposes-fallacy-of-the-countrys-democracy-124830">Violent crackdown against Iraq protests exposes fallacy of the country's democracy</a>
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<h2>Why did so many mourn Soleimani?</h2>
<p>How did the regime manage to bring so many people to the streets for Soleimani in a climate of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/iran-shot-down-hopes-its-people/605158/">public discontent against both the reformist and conservative factions of the regime</a>? There are several factors that explain how Tehran managed to give <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/09/politics/donald-trump-iran-congress/index.html">this illusion of unity by using Soleimani’s funeral</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310975/original/file-20200120-69531-1jn0rta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310975/original/file-20200120-69531-1jn0rta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310975/original/file-20200120-69531-1jn0rta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310975/original/file-20200120-69531-1jn0rta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310975/original/file-20200120-69531-1jn0rta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310975/original/file-20200120-69531-1jn0rta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310975/original/file-20200120-69531-1jn0rta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A demonstration near Tehran’s Great Mosque in honor of General Ghassem Soleimani. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini said in his sermon that U.S. President Donald Trump was a ‘clown.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP</span></span>
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<p>First of all, Soleimani was very popular among both the reformist and conservative factions of the regime. His funeral received <a href="https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1215310781853642752">enormous media coverage</a> in Iran. This contrasted with the non-existent coverage surrounding the November anti-regime protests <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28376/after-protests-iran-may-be-locked-into-a-future-of-more-social-unrest">targeting both reformers and conservatives</a>. The authorities blocked internet access for more than seven days while they massacred protesters in the streets, according to a <a href="https://observers.france24.com/en/20191224-iran-hidden-slaughter-video-investigation-protest">reporting by France 24</a>. </p>
<p>Second, the state deployed enormous resources to increase the number of participants in the pro-Soleimani demonstrations. <a href="https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1213682218033266688">Students, civil servants and shopkeepers were forced to go attend.</a>. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51021854">Persian BBC journalist</a> so aptly said about the regime’s ability to orchestrate their own demonstrations: </p>
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<p>“The organizers are now experts in their work. From declaring national holidays to gathering university students to requiring military and civil servants to go out with their families, every means has been used to gather the crowds. Buses, trains and trucks are provided to transport people from villages and towns across Iran to the rallies that are constantly announced on state television.”</p>
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<p>That said, there are also citizens who are truly fascinated by Soleimani.</p>
<p>For several years now, there has been a certain craze for the general, who is very present on state television, in the sermons of the mosques and even with some celebrities. Soleimani is viewed in Iran as a hero who saved the Middle East from the influence of the Islamic State (ISIS). Because of his role in the fight against the terrorist organization, Soleimani embodies for some Iranians the image of a benevolent commander who is above the internal politics of the country. The presence of these admirers was also marked in these pro-Soleimani demonstrations.</p>
<h2>Demonstrations after the crash</h2>
<p>But the apparent unanimity that followed Soleimani’s assassination, <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/01/06/sea-endless-people-mourns-soleimani-across-iran-vowing-trump-will-be-held">commented on by many as a rally around the flag</a> and against the Americans, quickly collapsed in the face of popular demands and general discontent.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310972/original/file-20200120-69551-p888jj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310972/original/file-20200120-69551-p888jj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310972/original/file-20200120-69551-p888jj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310972/original/file-20200120-69551-p888jj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310972/original/file-20200120-69551-p888jj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310972/original/file-20200120-69551-p888jj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310972/original/file-20200120-69551-p888jj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A demonstrator prepares to throw a tear gas cannister at police outside Amir Kabir University in Tehran during a demonstration in memory of the victims of Flight PS752. The apparent unanimity that followed the assassination of Soleimani quickly collapsed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo</span></span>
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<p>As soon as the Iranian leaders announced, in the face of international pressure, that the Ukraine Airlines passenger jet had been shot down by an Iranian missile – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/21/iran-admits-it-fired-two-missiles-at-ukrainian-passenger-jet">it is now known that it was two missiles</a> – anti-regime demonstrations broke out in major cities such as Tehran, Mashhad, Esfahan and Racht, as well as in several other regions.</p>
<p>Protesters chanted many of the same anti-regime slogans as they did in November: “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/12/iran-braces-for-protests-after-admitting-plane-shootdown.html">We were told that the enemy is the United States. Yet our enemy is here</a>.” The demonstrators were dispersed by force, which is the usual <em>modus operandi</em> of the Iranian republic.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310978/original/file-20200120-69531-ub6gcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310978/original/file-20200120-69531-ub6gcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310978/original/file-20200120-69531-ub6gcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310978/original/file-20200120-69531-ub6gcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310978/original/file-20200120-69531-ub6gcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310978/original/file-20200120-69531-ub6gcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310978/original/file-20200120-69531-ub6gcm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Police take a stand as demonstrators gather in front of Amir Kabir University in Tehran to mourn the victims of Flight PS752. Police fired both live ammunition and tear gas to disperse the protesters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo</span></span>
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<p>In short, Soleimani’s death didn’t weld the country together. It is still grappling with structural problems that cannot be solved overnight without a real willingness to change. The gap between the regime and the people will only grow if current trends persist. Among these trends is an expected increase in anti-regime demonstrations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130432/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vahid Yücesoy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Despite apparent unity after the killing of an Iranian general by the U.S., deep divisions still mark the Middle Eastern country.Vahid Yücesoy, PhD Candidate in political science, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1300112020-01-16T15:53:11Z2020-01-16T15:53:11ZIn defence of Michael McCain: Speaking out is what strong leaders do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310350/original/file-20200115-134772-18i3op6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2000%2C1110&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michael McCain, president and CEO of Maple Leafs Foods, speaks during the company's annual general meeting in Toronto in April 2011. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While leaders often take pains to avoid controversial topics and the glare of hostile publicity, it is the <em>sine qua non</em> — the absolute necessity — of strong leaders to speak out about what’s right and wrong, especially at critical moments in history. </p>
<p>As one researcher <a href="https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1048&context=lux">has argued</a>:</p>
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<p>“Leaders fill the role of mythical heroes through actions such as saving companies, championing causes for the poor or disenfranchised, and defending our closely held beliefs.”</p>
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<p>That includes those helming companies, in my opinion.</p>
<p>Michael McCain, the CEO of Maple Leaf Foods, demonstrated such leadership with his recent tweets defending <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/liberal-internationalism">liberal institutions</a> and expressing outrage about <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/13/business/maple-leaf-foods-ceo-ukraine-plane-intl-hnk/index.html">the deaths of 57 Canadians</a>, including the wife and son of one of his employees.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1216529697288355840"}"></div></p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/The%20Right%20and%20Wrong%20Way%20to%20Do%20CEO%20Activism%20-%20WSJ%202019-02-25_ee4cde54-a398-49ed-ac37-80588e93c776.pdf">activist CEO</a> called out an aggressive American act, undertaken at U.S. President Donald Trump’s behest, to assassinate a high-ranking Iranian official in Baghdad.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/political-assassinations-were-once-unthinkable-why-the-us-killing-of-soleimani-sets-a-worrying-precedent-129622">Political assassinations were once unthinkable. Why the US killing of Soleimani sets a worrying precedent</a>
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<p>The targeted killing escalated tensions between the United States and Iran. Iranians then mistakenly directed missiles at Flight PS752 shortly after takeoff, killing 176 people, many of them bound for Canada.</p>
<p>Even though he’s faced <a href="https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/maple-leaf-foods-boycott-hashtag-gets-some-competition-on-twitter">mixed reactions on social media</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0019850108000291">McCain has helped to enhance a distinctly Canadian brand, Maple Leaf Foods</a>, by defending Canadian values as the country still reels from the tragedy.</p>
<h2>McCain wealth</h2>
<p>McCain has been the president and chief executive officer of Maple Leaf Foods for a couple of decades. The billionaire <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/economy/money-economy/top-25-richest-canadians-2018/image/11/#gallery/canadas-richest-people-2018/slide-11">is one of the wealthiest people</a> in Canada. Although <a href="https://democracyeducationjournal.org/home/vol21/iss1/7/">we may not like income inequality in Canada</a>, it helps when we see wealthy people standing up for what’s right. </p>
<p>McCain has a track record of leadership and trying to do what’s right. In fact, he <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-testing-of-michael-mccain/article598005/">has said that doing the right thing was his goal, and in line with the company’s values</a>, during <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/how-maple-leaf-foods-is-handling-the-listeria-outbreak-1.763404">the company’s 2008 listeria crisis</a>. Instead of covering up the extent of the outbreak, McCain was fully transparent and took full responsibility.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/retail-marketing/michael-mccain-whacked-a-hornets-nest-and-those-who-know-him-arent-surprised/wcm/5746c092-b45d-48bd-bd07-5c212105bcdb">Knowing there is a desire to assign blame, the buck stops here</a>,” he said. “I emphasize: this is our accountability and it’s ours to fix.”</p>
<p>McCain knew that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.12.003">Canadians have to trust a company producing the food they eat</a>, and the Maple Leaf brand recovered from the crisis. </p>
<p>The CEO’s actions were not only ethical, but they also demonstrated his business acumen and effective communication skills. He understood the value of a corporate brand and that a good reputation must back it up. Indeed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2008.02.005">research has shown reputation can motivate consumer purchase intentions.</a></p>
<h2>Siemens’ puzzling coal move</h2>
<p>Contrast this to the recent <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51089468">baffling announcement</a> made by Joe Kaeser, CEO of Siemens, the German engineering giant. Kaeser, the company’s highest paid executive with an annual salary of <a href="https://ca.wallmine.com/otc/siegy/officer/1694562/joe-kaeser">US$9.6 million</a>, says that although he knows it’s the wrong thing to do, his firm will remain on the controversial Adani project, a huge coal mine in Australia.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/14/australia-bushfires-harbinger-future-scientists">Australia’s horrific, climate change-fuelled bush fires rage on</a>, possibly wiping out <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/australian-fires-incinerated-habitats-threatened-species-ecological-disaster">entire species</a>, Kaeser’s decision shows incredibly poor judgment. He has <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0b619eb2-3580-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4">dismayed employees</a> by seemingly tossing aside Siemens’ <a href="https://new.siemens.com/global/en/company/stories/home/climate-action.html">carefully cultivated environmental corporate reputation</a> and tarnished the brand, all for a relatively small US$20 million project. <a href="https://ycharts.com/companies/SIEGY/market_cap">Siemens is a US$100 billion company.</a> </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Activists attend a protest rally against Australia’s climate policy in front of the Australian embassy in Berlin, headquarters of Siemens, on Jan. 10, 2020, over the Adani coal mine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Michael Sohn)</span></span>
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<p>The mine stands to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/16/why-adanis-planned-carmichael-coalmine-matters-to-australia-and-the-world">add to climate change and further damage Australia’s Great Barrier Reef</a>, already battered by bleaching due to rising ocean temperatures and marine heatwaves. Dubbed the <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/adani-mine-australia-climate-change-848315/">“world’s most insane energy project” by <em>Rolling Stone</em> magazine</a>, protesters around the world have made their opposition known. </p>
<p>A Bloomberg opinion writer called Kaeser’s announcement one of the “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-14/siemens-ceo-joe-kaeser-s-odd-defense-of-carmichael-coal-project">strangest pieces of executive communication</a>,” noting that the Adani project doesn’t even make economic sense, especially with the declining price of coal. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-adani-why-would-a-billionaire-persist-with-a-mine-that-will-probably-lose-money-117682">Explaining Adani: why would a billionaire persist with a mine that will probably lose money?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>In fact, Siemens <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-20/siemens-ceo-seeks-to-shake-up-conglomerate-with-energy-spinoff">has cut thousands of jobs</a> from a related energy division it plans to spin off. In other words, Kaeser sold out his multinational’s reputation for a project not even part of Siemens’ future. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/13/adani-coalmine-siemens-ceo-has-empathy-for-environment-but-will-honour-contract">He says that he doesn’t see a legal way out of the contract</a> the company signed with India’s Adani.</p>
<p>Although some may claim that it’s easy for McCain to use his company’s corporate Twitter feed however he likes because he owns a good chunk of the business he leads, both men lead publicly traded companies and have shareholders to consider.</p>
<p>With all of Kaeser’s millions, and Siemens’, he could walk away, just as McCain could risk a dent in his company’s stock price with his surprising tweets about Trump. As it were, Maple Leaf Foods <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MFI.TO/">share prices dipped briefly but soon recovered</a>, suggesting there will be no lasting damage from McCain’s tweets. In fact, many of us may recognize the brand now even more when we’re in grocery stores, and Maple Leaf Foods’ employees, customers and other stakeholders will know the Canadian company can be trusted to do the right thing.</p>
<p>The difference is leadership, not corporate structure. Both men can make independent decisions. But only one is a leader, and that’s Michael McCain.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah de Lange receives funding from SSHRC and Ryerson University on occasion to support her research.</span></em></p>Michael McCain has been criticized for maligning Donald Trump on the Maple Leaf Foods corporate Twitter account over Flight PS752. But strong leaders don’t shy away from taking a stand.Deborah de Lange, Associate Professor, Global Management Studies, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1297612020-01-13T16:57:44Z2020-01-13T16:57:44ZWill Flight PS752 victims be remembered differently than those killed in the Air India bombing?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309541/original/file-20200112-103987-c627mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C23%2C3864%2C2563&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Candles are lit at a vigil organized for the Winnipeg victims killed on Flight PS752. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/John Woods</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s been an incredible outpouring of grief across Canada since Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 was shot down by Iran, killing all 176 passengers and crew on board.</p>
<p>We have learned that among the 57 Canadians killed, there were beloved students, professors, doctors and engineers. Children, newlyweds and entire families perished. Many of them have been described by Canadian news media and leaders as “<a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6388464/toronto-vigil-iran-plane-crash/">exceptional</a>.” They belonged to Canada’s vibrant Iranian communities and are being remembered as such in tributes and memorial services across the nation. </p>
<p>“Your entire country stands with you tonight, tomorrow, and in all the years to come,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/01/12/justin-trudeau-to-attend-edmonton-memorial-service-for-iran-crash-victims.html">told about 2,300 people who attended a memorial service</a> in Edmonton on Sunday. “<a href="https://www.macleans.ca/news/justin-trudeaus-statement-after-plane-crash-in-iran-full-transcript/">We share your grief</a>,” he said on the day of the crash.</p>
<p>Trudeau called it a “moment of national pain” and recounted stories he’d heard from impacted families over the past few days, including one of a 10-year-old “who was confident he’d one day be prime minister of this country he loved so much.”</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.uap.ualberta.ca/titles/878-9781772122596-remembering-air-india">I’ve spent more than a dozen years researching public memory of another air disaster</a> that resulted in an even greater number of Canadian casualties — the Air India tragedy. </p>
<p>Indeed, news of PS752 is triggering memories of June 23, 1985, when <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scrt/cntr-trrrsm/r-nd-flght-182/index-en.aspx">Air India Flight 182 fell into the Atlantic Ocean near Cork, Ireland, after a bomb hidden among the luggage exploded</a>. All 329 passengers and crew on board that flight were killed. Among them were 280 Canadians, the majority from Indian-Canadian families, as reported by the official <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/rspns-cmmssn/index-en.aspx">inquiry by Public Safety Canada</a>.</p>
<h2>‘I felt gutted’</h2>
<p>Winnipeg resident Nicky Mehta was 13 at the time that her uncle, aunt and two young cousins were killed on the Air India flight. On the day after Flight PS752 crashed, she woke up to an abbreviated list of “deadly plane crashes that killed Canadians” published in the <em>Winnipeg Free Press</em> that did not include Air India. “I felt gutted,” she told me. “It was re-traumatizing to see that Air India was not even worth a mention here.” The article has since been removed.</p>
<p>Back in 1985, there was no collective outpouring of grief or statement of national solidarity for the victims of Air India Flight 182. Were these victims not “exceptional” enough? In fact, they too were beloved students, professors, doctors and engineers, as well as homemakers, teachers, civil servants and more.</p>
<p>Notoriously, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/why-canada-chose-to-unremember-air-india-and-disown-its-victims/article1212010/">Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney offered his condolences to Prime Minister of India Rajiv Gandhi for India’s loss</a> instead of addressing his own citizens.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309543/original/file-20200112-103954-1dvaooo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309543/original/file-20200112-103954-1dvaooo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309543/original/file-20200112-103954-1dvaooo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309543/original/file-20200112-103954-1dvaooo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309543/original/file-20200112-103954-1dvaooo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309543/original/file-20200112-103954-1dvaooo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309543/original/file-20200112-103954-1dvaooo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A member of the Iranian community in Calgary lights a candle during a memorial for the victims of Flight PS752 crash.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol</span></span>
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<p>It is clear that for many Canadians (not just Mulroney) the Air India bombing was unthinkable — and thus unmemorable — as a tragedy of national consequence due to the dominant assumption that Canadian identity is synonymous with whiteness. Indeed, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/air-india-hearings-conclude-with-racism-claims-1.267421">critics as well as relatives of the dead have raised the obvious question</a>: would there have been such trouble recognizing the bombing as a national tragedy if the majority of those killed were white rather than brown Canadians?</p>
<h2>Crucial evidence lost</h2>
<p>Now well-documented as the result of criminal trial proceedings and a long-awaited federally appointed <a href="http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2010/bcp-pco/CP32-89-5-2010-1-eng.pdf">Commission of Inquiry into the Investigation of the Bombing of Air India 182</a> are repeated instances where government officials, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), the RCMP and Canadian airport authorities ignored, disbelieved, erased and lost crucial evidence — including surveillance tapes of eventually acquitted suspects and warnings by the Indian government and Air India officials of an attack on the airline. </p>
<p>Relatives of those killed in the bombing of Flight 182 also testified to how the government failed to provide them with the most basic, practical supports in the days, months and years following the deaths of their loved ones, many citing compounded grief as a result of being treated like second-class citizens for their “Indian-ness.”</p>
<p>Sociologist Sherene Razack has said that although “there is evidence that some Canadian officials acted heroically,” <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/racism-issue-resurfaces-as-testimony-ends-at-air-india-inquiry-1.765605">systemic racism played a role in Canada’s pre- and post-bombing response</a> or lack thereof. In her expert witness report for the inquiry, she observed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“When police, political and media elites all consistently treated the Air India bombings as a foreign event, it is not surprising that Canadians do not recall June 23, 1985. As a nation, we were not shaken, transformed and moved to change our own institutional practices for a tragedy we considered had little to do with us.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/stephen-harpers-apology-to-air-india-victims-families">It would take 25 years of lobbying by Air India families</a> before the government of Canada would publicly claim their loved ones, as well as the suspected perpetrators, as Canada’s own.</p>
<h2>Has Canada changed?</h2>
<p>Does the national mourning as a result of the tragedy of PS752 mean then that Canada has since changed? Are we befittingly shaken this time around? Other news reports are citing diversity and multiculturalism experts who think so, some claiming that there has been a “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/iran-airline-crash-air-india-disaster-1.5422525">180-degree shift</a>.” But I am curious to see how the victims of this tragedy (and those of the Air India bombings, for that matter) continue to be remembered in time.</p>
<p>Despite the fact that the Air India bombing is now referred to by public authorities as “<a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/lssns-lrnd/index-en.aspx">the worst encounter with terrorism Canada has experienced</a>,” or even “<a href="https://ottawasun.com/2012/09/30/air-india-flight-182-tragedy-canadas-own-911/wcm/fea91482-356f-4782-8e6b-f15f8988628d">Canada’s 9/11</a>,” most of my undergraduate university students have never heard of the incident. </p>
<p>The 35th anniversary of the Air India bombings approaches this coming June. It remains to be seen how long it will take for the Flight PS752 victims to be forgotten. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309542/original/file-20200112-103987-1v71am.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309542/original/file-20200112-103987-1v71am.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309542/original/file-20200112-103987-1v71am.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309542/original/file-20200112-103987-1v71am.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309542/original/file-20200112-103987-1v71am.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309542/original/file-20200112-103987-1v71am.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309542/original/file-20200112-103987-1v71am.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visit the memorial honouring victims of the 1985 Air India bombing at a ceremony in Toronto in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Michelle Siu</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>It also remains to be seen if the deaths of these passengers will be mobilized in the interests of increased western military involvement in the Middle East. Again I can’t help but think of the Air India bombings, and the ways in which the government of Stephen Harper <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/rspns-cmmssn/index-en.aspx">strategically used the memory of its victims to bolster support for conservative anti-terrorist legislation</a>; or more recently, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-strange-loyalties-of-jagmeet-singh/">conservative pundits who invoked the bombings</a> over and over again to bait NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh before last fall’s federal election. </p>
<p>Nor am I convinced that Canada’s response to this recent air tragedy and the loss of so many Iranian-Canadian lives means racist reactions won’t still emerge.</p>
<p>Often during times of national crises and heightened political tensions, race-based fears and anxieties about foreign and/or domestic terrorism result in the intensified stereotyping of particular people and places as inherently threatening — as exemplified in President Donald Trump’s latest characterization of Iran as a “<a href="https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a30459657/trump-iran-flight-rough-neighborhood/">rough neighborhood</a>.” To be sure, the potential for rising anti-Iranian sentiment in Canada also exists.</p>
<p>And so as further details of the tragedy in Tehran unfold and political players in and beyond Canada negotiate their stakes, I expect that public memory will shift along with it, including how the incident and its casualties are remembered and understood.</p>
<p>This is how public memory works: when new information and investments become present, we tend to revise how we make sense of the past.</p>
<p>The best we can hope for is that our practice of collective remembrance might become the grounds upon which those of us who were not immediately affected by the downing of PS752 — or the Air India bombings — join in memory and mourning with those who were. In doing so, we learn to live alongside one another in the aftermath of loss with renewed connection.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129761/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angela Failler receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Canada Research Chairs Program.. </span></em></p>When Canada’s worst airline tragedy happened 35 years ago, the country had a different reaction than the national outpouring of grief for those killed when PS752 was shot down in Tehran.Angela Failler, Canada Research Chair in Culture and Public Memory, University of WinnipegLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1297712020-01-13T14:28:16Z2020-01-13T14:28:16ZThe long history and current consequences of the Iranian-American conflict<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309568/original/file-20200112-103982-13c2pwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4500%2C2701&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters chant slogans and hold up posters of Qassem Soleimani during a demonstration in front of the British Embassy in Tehran on Jan. 12, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Understanding historical cause and effect can be difficult and contentious. The downing of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight PS752 is a prime example. </p>
<p>While there’s now no question about the Iranian regime’s responsibility for attack, the broader blame game is ongoing. Indeed, it is integral to Tehran’s defence in the face of international condemnation and increasing domestic unrest.</p>
<p>Historians trace the state of Iranian-American relations to 1953, when the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/20/64-years-later-cia-finally-releases-details-of-iranian-coup-iran-tehran-oil/">Central Intelligence Agency orchestrated a coup against Mohammed Mossadegh</a> and installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as a puppet ruler for 25 years.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309575/original/file-20200112-103954-5tbtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309575/original/file-20200112-103954-5tbtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309575/original/file-20200112-103954-5tbtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309575/original/file-20200112-103954-5tbtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309575/original/file-20200112-103954-5tbtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309575/original/file-20200112-103954-5tbtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309575/original/file-20200112-103954-5tbtbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this September 1951 photo, Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddegh rides on the shoulders of cheering crowds outside Tehran’s parliament building after reiterating his oil nationalization views to his supporters. The U.S. overthrew his government two years later.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo, File</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 1978 Iranian Revolution ensued, ultimately producing the authoritarian theocracy in power today. Iran’s brutal war from 1980 to 1988 with neighbouring Iraq, then an American ally, helped to entrench the Islamist regime and fuelled further enmity with the U.S. </p>
<p>So too has constant American support for Israel and Saudi Arabia, and Iran’s wide-ranging <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/iran-uses-proxies-punch-above-its-weight-middle-east-experts-n1008731">“proxy wars” in the Middle East</a> through militias and terrorist organizations. </p>
<p>More recently, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-invasion-iraq-anniversary-how-it-changed-middle-east-country-2018-3">the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq</a> provided a lightning rod for conflict. It simultaneously threatened Iran with perceived regime change while creating the conditions for the country’s expanded influence in the region <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-shia-shift-why-iran-hezbollah-abandoned-martyrdom-25992">through control of disaffected Shia.</a> <a href="https://apnews.com/a0557de2499d53eb9d298bbea35bb9d8">The subsequent civil war in Syria</a>, the rise of the Islamic State (IS) and the ongoing conflict in Yemen furthered opportunities for Tehran to project its power.</p>
<h2>Support for reformists</h2>
<p>To be sure, there have been glimmers of hope for a better relationship over the years. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2019-06-14/irans-green-movement-never-went-away">The so-called Green Movement</a> in Iran in 2009 signalled that not all was well with the fundamentalist regime. Support for reformists since the late 1990s, while intermittent, also points to a more diverse, progressive society in Iran than is often imagined.</p>
<p>On the international stage, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (better known as the Iran nuclear deal) provided at least an initial framework for dialogue, however debatable its effectiveness. But that process ended with the withdrawal from the protocol in 2018 by Donald Trump’s administration. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/obituaries/qassem-soleimani-dead.html">The more recent decision to assassinate Qassem Soleimani,</a> major general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and commander of the Quds Force — and one of the most important officials in the Iranian government — was an even more obvious hard turn away from any diplomacy with Tehran.</p>
<p>Soleimani’s murder necessitated a response from Iran. </p>
<p>After many threats, that response was Iranian missile attacks on American military bases in Iraq. It was an expected and relatively restrained response from a regime cornered between appearing tough in the face of American aggression and running the risk of a major military escalation with the U.S. that could conceivably imperil its very existence.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/iran-vows-revenge-for-soleimanis-killing-but-heres-why-it-wont-seek-direct-confrontation-with-the-us-129440">Iran vows revenge for Soleimani's killing, but here's why it won't seek direct confrontation with the US</a>
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<p>It is of course too early to know if that’s the extent of Tehran’s response. Soleimani’s death is a major blow to Iranian operations in Iraq and Syria, where he served as the political and military point-man. At the head of the Quds Force, he ran myriad clandestine operations through proxies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Afghanistan. The U.S. ranked him as one of the most important terrorists in the world.</p>
<h2>Soleimani a national hero</h2>
<p>Soleimani’s assassination was taken as a clear, personal attack on the regime and particularly Iran’s theocracy. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309569/original/file-20200112-103982-2qkz21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309569/original/file-20200112-103982-2qkz21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309569/original/file-20200112-103982-2qkz21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309569/original/file-20200112-103982-2qkz21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309569/original/file-20200112-103982-2qkz21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309569/original/file-20200112-103982-2qkz21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309569/original/file-20200112-103982-2qkz21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309569/original/file-20200112-103982-2qkz21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this picture released by the official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks to a group of residents of the city of Qom, in Iran on Jan. 8, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Quite separate from the Iranian military, the IRGC answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Historically, the IRGC has also been a kind of barometer of the regime’s integrity with the Iranian populace.</p>
<p>Initially the vanguard of the revolution, the IRGC came to epitomize the oppressive nature of clerical rule and had lost much of its support among Iranians. </p>
<p>Soleimani was key to its rehabilitation, especially in the face of what many saw as American military adventurism in the Middle East.</p>
<p>His status as a national hero was premised largely on the notion that the IRGC was, once again, defending Iranian sovereignty: challenging the U.S. and its allies throughout the region. In many respects he had tapped into an <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/iraq-and-iran-have-nationalists-too/604573/">even deeper sense of Persian nationalism</a> — he represented the legitimate regional aspirations of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/01/08/if-trump-knew-anything-about-iran-he-would-never-have-threatened-its-culture/">an ancient and proud people</a>, long besieged by enemies on all fronts. He was, to some degree, a symbol of unity in a fractured state.</p>
<p>It is dangerous to leap from Soleimani’s death to the downing of Flight PS752, or to ultimately blame Washington as Iran now seeks to do. But cause and effect still cast their shadows. </p>
<h2>Iran feared further escalation</h2>
<p>Clearly Iranian authorities feared military escalation from the U.S. after their reprisal for the assassination. And clearly their fears were exacerbated by incompetency evident now on multiple levels, particularly the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority for not closing airspace over Tehran. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flight-ps752-a-deadly-combination-of-irans-recklessness-and-incompetence-129749">Flight PS752: A deadly combination of Iran's recklessness and incompetence</a>
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<p>Most problematic for the regime is that the IRGC — <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash-missiles-explainer/explainer-missile-system-suspected-of-bringing-down-airliner-short-range-fast-and-deadly-idUSKBN1Z90A1">the only unit with the Russian-made Tor system in question</a> — ultimately bears responsibility for launching the missiles. Admitting to the attack, especially after a series of vigorous denials, has humiliated the regime. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/iran-iraq-crash-soleimani-trump-1.5423238">Evidenced by anti-government protests in Iran</a> soon after its admission, it’s also exposed the leadership to precisely what it fears most: the domestic opposition it has been battling for years.</p>
<p>Often overlooked by Westerners in this calculation is the 1988 Iranian Airlines Flight 655 incident, when missiles from the USS Vincennes <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/10/middleeast/iran-air-flight-655-us-military-intl-hnk/index.html">were mistakenly launched at the civilian jet, killing all on board.</a> </p>
<p>That event became a central pillar of the clerics’ attempts to carve a collective Iranian identity built principally on vehement anti-Americanism, and to consequently legitimize their own control. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309574/original/file-20200112-103990-zslstp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309574/original/file-20200112-103990-zslstp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309574/original/file-20200112-103990-zslstp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309574/original/file-20200112-103990-zslstp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309574/original/file-20200112-103990-zslstp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309574/original/file-20200112-103990-zslstp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309574/original/file-20200112-103990-zslstp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In this July 1988 file photo, a funeral procession is held for six Pakistani and Indian nationals who were killed aboard Iran Air Flight 655.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Commemorated in speeches, educational curriculums, even postage stamps, Flight 655 reinforced notions that Iran was perpetually under attack. Indeed, just a couple of days before the attack on Ukrainian International Airlines, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rouhani-tweeted-about-iran-flight-655-before-ukrainian-plane-downed-2020-1">tweets from senior Iranian officials reminded followers about Flight 655</a>. </p>
<p>Now, with Flight PS752, Iran was the attacker. Hypocrisies were revealed, and opportunities to exploit <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/11/they-killed-our-sons-and-daughters-anger-rises-in-iran-over-flight-752">both domestic and international support in the face of American actions were lost</a>.</p>
<h2>Justification changes</h2>
<p>So what about the United States? As Trump so quickly pointed out, the “mistake” most definitely came “<a href="https://www.rollcall.com/news/whitehouse/trump-suggests-iran-downed-ukrainian-airliner">from the other side</a>.” But his decisions still loom large in a fair discussion of cause and effect. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-real-backstory-of-why-trump-ordered-the-killing-of-suleimani-is-becoming-more-clear">There are serious questions</a> about what went into the decision to kill Soleimani. Parallels to Osama bin Laden are inevitable, but neither the context nor the consequences are analogous. </p>
<p>Attacks on Iranian interests have the potential of far greater, and faster, escalation than any involving al-Qaida or other terrorist organizations. And the initial rationale — that Soleimani was planning an “imminent attack” on U.S. interests — has changed. Instead, Trump argued, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/politics/qasem-soleimani-reasons-justifications/index.html">the hit was for past actions</a>. </p>
<p>That’s a very different calculation, especially in the eyes of public opinion. </p>
<p>Even if the assassination is still considered legitimate, questions about possible consequences seem to have been ignored. Soleimani’s status as a national hero doesn’t seem to have registered. A sophisticated understanding of the Iranian regime and its need to respond to any attack on its interests also seems to have been lacking. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309579/original/file-20200113-103971-4ew46g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309579/original/file-20200113-103971-4ew46g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309579/original/file-20200113-103971-4ew46g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309579/original/file-20200113-103971-4ew46g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309579/original/file-20200113-103971-4ew46g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309579/original/file-20200113-103971-4ew46g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309579/original/file-20200113-103971-4ew46g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Demonstrators protest outside of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 9, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Historical calculations were probably never even entertained in calculating what might happen after the hit. In an administration notorious for its revolving door of senior officials and advisers, whose expertise was instrumental in making a decision of that magnitude? Was any sought at all?</p>
<p>Regardless of any moral and ethical considerations, the assassination of Soleimani constitutes a dramatic escalation in a region already dangerously volatile, and it was arguably disproportionate to the threat he posed.</p>
<h2>Stephen Harper cut diplomatic ties</h2>
<p>Questions about cause and effect don’t spare Canada, either. The 2012 decision by the government of Stephen Harper to cut diplomatic ties with Iran now significantly complicates Ottawa’s efforts to take part in the investigation of Flight PS752 and to best represent Canadian victims. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-non-diplomacy-puts-canadians-at-risk-in-an-unstable-middle-east-129758">Canada's non-diplomacy puts Canadians at risk in an unstable Middle East</a>
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<p>Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s demands for a full, open, international investigation into the incident are helped by Iran’s belated admissions, but he cannot expect the regime to fully comply in straightforward fashion. A significant improvement in Iranian-Canadian relations remains a distant dream. </p>
<p>Perhaps even more important is the disturbing fact that Ottawa was left in the dark about Trump’s Soleimani intentions. Especially with allies so close, it is customary — and necessary — to consult in matters of national security. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309572/original/file-20200112-103974-1uuxodz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309572/original/file-20200112-103974-1uuxodz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309572/original/file-20200112-103974-1uuxodz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309572/original/file-20200112-103974-1uuxodz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309572/original/file-20200112-103974-1uuxodz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309572/original/file-20200112-103974-1uuxodz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309572/original/file-20200112-103974-1uuxodz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Members of the Iranian community break down during a memorial for the victims of the Ukrainian plane disaster in Iran in Edmonton on Jan. 12, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Canadians, both soldiers and civilians, who were potentially in danger in the region could have been warned if Ottawa had been informed. It also raises serious questions about the current state of the Canada-U.S. relationship.</p>
<p>Trump’s personal dislike of Trudeau, and evident disregard for Canada, is obvious. Less clear is how the historically high degree of communication and integration between the two countries has changed under Trump’s watch. </p>
<p>Asked directly about whether he thought the U.S. bore some responsibility for the downing of PS752, Trudeau said: “I think it is too soon to be drawing conclusions or assigning blame or responsibility in whatever proportions.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1215365771922214915"}"></div></p>
<p>It was a quiet but obvious suggestion that the Trump administration was not above reproach in a great tragedy with significant international consequences.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129771/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arne Kislenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The history of the Iran-United States relationship is complex and often brutal. Understanding it helps put today’s turmoil into sharper focus.Arne Kislenko, Associate Professor of History, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1296692020-01-12T19:18:23Z2020-01-12T19:18:23ZIran flexes its missile muscle with terrible consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309555/original/file-20200112-103959-1exzvar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C0%2C4500%2C2977&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People gather for a candlelight vigil to remember the victims of the Ukraine plane crash in Tehran on Jan. 11, 2020.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) recently demonstrated its sophisticated missile technology by <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51042156">attacking U.S. military bases</a> in Iraq. But later the same day, its missiles <a href="https://apnews.com/21f4a92a2dfbc38581719664bdf6f38e">unintentionally destroyed an airliner</a> in Iran, killing 176 civilians, including 57 Canadians.</p>
<p>That combined success and blunder suggest Iran’s military and government “human systems” have not kept up with the weapon technology they wield. They also illustrate how missile threats pose challenges to other countries worldwide.</p>
<h2>Airliner interception over Iran</h2>
<p>Iran belatedly admitted Saturday that IRGC surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) had shot down the passenger jet near Tehran. The SAM crew somehow mistook the Ukrainian airliner for an American cruise missile. Ukrainian investigators believe the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-investigators-knew-within-hours-missile-ps752-1.5423957">missile exploded near the airplane’s cockpit</a>, instantly killing the crew.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309557/original/file-20200112-103963-1buca11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309557/original/file-20200112-103963-1buca11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309557/original/file-20200112-103963-1buca11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309557/original/file-20200112-103963-1buca11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309557/original/file-20200112-103963-1buca11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309557/original/file-20200112-103963-1buca11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309557/original/file-20200112-103963-1buca11.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rescue worker searches the scene where a Ukrainian plane crashed southwest of Tehran, killing 176 passengers, including 57 Canadians, after being shot down by the Iranian military.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The airplane was defenceless against the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash-missiles-explainer/explainer-missile-system-suspected-of-bringing-down-airliner-short-range-fast-and-deadly-idUSKBN1Z90A1">apparently Russian-made SAM</a>. The only major airline <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/israeli-airline-missile-defenses-israel-us-carriers-wont/story?id=24684650">whose planes carry missile countermeasures</a> is Israel’s El Al. And those are effective mostly against <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/stinger-missile-back-25882">simple heat-seeking SAMs</a>, not sophisticated radar-guided ones.</p>
<p>It’s unclear why IRGC personnel didn’t realize the aircraft was civilian. Their radar should have displayed the airliner’s <a href="https://calaero.edu/the-airplane-transponder/">transponder code</a>. <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/rebecca-grant-iranian-shoot-down-of-ukrainian-plane-heres-what-went-wrong">Did the IRGC disable</a> that potentially life-saving feature?</p>
<p>(Iran is not alone in making interception errors. In 2018, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/17/politics/syrian-regime-shoots-down-russian-plane/index.html">Syria used Russian-supplied SAMs</a> to <a href="https://apnews.com/49ff908bba924ee1a43b5a6db3917bcd/Putin-seeks-to-defuse-downing-of-Russian-plane-off-Syria">down a Russian airplane</a> they mistook for an Israeli fighter jet. And in 1988, a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/10/middleeast/iran-air-flight-655-us-military-intl-hnk/index.html">U.S. warship destroyed an Iranian airliner it thought was a warplane</a>.)</p>
<p>You could call the incident “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/iran-admits-unintentionally-shot-ukrainian-plane-200111040653138.html">human error</a>” or “recklessness and incompetence.”</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flight-ps752-a-deadly-combination-of-irans-recklessness-and-incompetence-129749">Flight PS752: A deadly combination of Iran's recklessness and incompetence</a>
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<p>Either way, it indicates problems with <a href="https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Lessons-from-Irans-shoot-down-of-Ukrainian-Airlines-752-613845">organizational co-ordination and communication</a>, rather than the technology itself.</p>
<p>In fact, the IRGC had showcased its technological strengths earlier that day.</p>
<h2>Ballistic missiles into Iraq</h2>
<p>On Jan. 8, the IRGC launched <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/794517031/satellite-photos-reveal-extent-of-damage-at-al-assad-air-base">between 15</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51042156">22 ballistic missiles</a> toward U.S. military bases in Iraq. Some landed many kilometres off target. But most struck the bases and at least five destroyed buildings. Fortunately, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/iran-tensions-soleimani-killing-latest-updates-200109052154824.html">the Americans suffered no casualties</a> because <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/11/middleeast/iran-strike-al-asad-air-base-exclusive-intl/index.html">they had taken shelter</a>.</p>
<p>The fact that some missiles never reached the target zone indicates their reliability remains problematic. But the direct hits that others scored shows the growing accuracy of Iran’s missile guidance systems.</p>
<p>Most importantly, the attack demonstrated Iran can strike U.S. targets hundreds of kilometres away. That’s despite overwhelming American military superiority.</p>
<h2>Cruise missiles against Saudi Arabia</h2>
<p><a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/why-irans-cruise-missiles-are-serious-threat-113021">Iran’s cruise missiles</a> have achieved similar sophistication. (Ballistic missiles soar high into the air before arcing down toward their targets. By contrast, cruise missiles fly close to the ground like small airplanes — hence the IRGC’s mistake.)</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309556/original/file-20200112-103987-vx9vd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309556/original/file-20200112-103987-vx9vd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309556/original/file-20200112-103987-vx9vd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309556/original/file-20200112-103987-vx9vd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309556/original/file-20200112-103987-vx9vd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309556/original/file-20200112-103987-vx9vd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309556/original/file-20200112-103987-vx9vd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An Iranian army member looks at a missile in an exhibition in which the Revolutionary Guard also displays pieces of the American drone Global Hawk shot down by the Guard in the Strait of Hormuz in June 2019, in Tehran.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)</span></span>
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<p>Those improvements were evident last September. That’s when <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-sending-troops-saudi-arabia-shows-short-range-air-defenses-ncna1057461">seven cruise missiles and 18 smaller drones</a> <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-fired-cruise-missiles-attack-saudi-oil-facility/story?id=65632653">heavily damaged two Saudi Arabian oil refineries</a>. Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed they made that attack. But many observers believe Iran supplied the missiles.</p>
<h2>Military vulnerabilities</h2>
<p>Iran’s successful cruise and ballistic missile attacks represent not only its missile strengths, but also other countries’ vulnerabilities. Even the powerful and <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2018/05/02/us-remains-top-military-spender-sipri-reports/">well-funded</a> U.S. military has trouble blocking such missiles.</p>
<p>Ballistic missiles’ high-altitude flights are easy to spot on radar. But their fast speed makes them difficult to hit. Even if hit, their downward trajectories mean they might damage targets anyway.</p>
<p>Conversely, cruise missiles are relatively easy to destroy once detected. But their low flying altitudes mean they’re often undetected until too late.</p>
<p>(Capturing launch sites is one way to counter both missile types. That’s how Allied forces shut down Germany’s <a href="https://www.smh-hq.org/jmh/jmhvols/831.html">V-2 ballistic missiles and V-1 cruise missiles</a> during the Second World War.)</p>
<p>The U.S. Army does have medium-range <a href="https://www.army-technology.com/projects/patriot/">Patriot missile interceptors</a>, but only at a few locations. Besides, that system’s effectiveness against ballistic missiles <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/28/patriot-missiles-are-made-in-america-and-fail-everywhere/">is questionable</a>. And Saudi Patriots failed to stop the refinery cruise missile attack there.</p>
<p>Consequently, the U.S. Army is developing new <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/12/12/after-complex-test-is-the-armys-major-missile-defense-command-system-ready-for-primetime/">short-range missile defences</a>. It’s also <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2019/10/us-army-signals-israels-iron-dome-isnt-the-answer/">buying two interceptor systems from Israel</a> in the meantime. But those aren’t deployed yet.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, most other countries’ armies, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/ballistic-missile-defence-1.4488470">including Canada’s</a>, completely lack interceptors. (By contrast, <a href="https://theconversation.com/missile-interception-from-yemen-to-the-south-china-sea-84676">many nations’ warships carry interceptors for self-defence</a>.)</p>
<h2>Israeli concerns</h2>
<p>The country best equipped for missile defence is Israel. But even it worries about Iranian developments.</p>
<p>Israel developed its <a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/arrow-3/">Arrow</a> and <a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/davids-sling/">David’s Sling</a> systems to intercept ballistic missiles. Its <a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/iron-dome/">Iron Dome</a> system protects against short-range rockets and mortars. Even its <a href="http://en.globes.co.il/en/article-rafael-to-sell-tank-protection-system-to-us-army-1001243212">tanks can intercept anti-tank guided missiles</a>.</p>
<p>Iron Dome has seen extensive use against <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-missiles-fly-a-look-at-israels-iron-dome-interceptor-94959">attacks from Gaza</a>. The system was first deployed in 2011 and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article/3/2/113/4964794">became really effective in 2014</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309558/original/file-20200112-103990-1nycsme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309558/original/file-20200112-103990-1nycsme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309558/original/file-20200112-103990-1nycsme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309558/original/file-20200112-103990-1nycsme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309558/original/file-20200112-103990-1nycsme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309558/original/file-20200112-103990-1nycsme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309558/original/file-20200112-103990-1nycsme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An Iron Dome defence system, installed on a Sa'ar 5 Lahav Class corvette of the Israeli Navy, is seen in the northern port of Haifa, Israel, in February 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jack Guez via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But that effectiveness partly relies on rocket inaccuracy. Even when fired at large targets like entire towns, roughly three-quarters land harmlessly in fields. Very few would directly hit buildings. Iron Dome batteries can focus on stopping those few.</p>
<p>That’s one reason Iranian missile improvements concern Israel. Suppose the IRGC were to supply Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon with precision guidance systems. Those militants could greatly increase their weapons’ accuracy.</p>
<p>Instead of blindly firing rockets at whole towns, the militants could target important buildings like power plants. And instead of worrying about just a fraction of the rockets, Iron Dome units would need to intercept most of them. That could quickly <a href="https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/opre.2014.1309?journalCode=opre&">overwhelm their capacity</a>.</p>
<p>It’s truly impressive how far the world’s engineers have advanced missile technology. Now politicians must make similar advances in diplomacy. Otherwise, missile mayhem will become increasingly common.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael J. Armstrong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The downing of Flight PS752 suggests Iran’s missile technology has grown increasingly sophisticated. But its ability to responsibly control that technology has not.Michael J. Armstrong, Associate professor of operations research, Goodman School of Business, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1297582020-01-12T13:36:32Z2020-01-12T13:36:32ZCanada’s non-diplomacy puts Canadians at risk in an unstable Middle East<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309536/original/file-20200111-97183-nq1520.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C4950%2C3482&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pauses as he speaks during a news conference in Ottawa on Jan. 11. Trudeau says Iran must take full responsibility for mistakenly shooting down a Ukrainian jetliner, killing all 176 civilians on board. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada is caught in a mess of its own diplomatic making following the recent escalation in conflict between the United States and Iran. This escalation seemed to contribute to the downing <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-jetliner-unintentionally-shot-down-1.5423608">by Iran</a> on its own soil of Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6396760/canadians-killed-iran-crash/">with 57 Canadians aboard</a>.</p>
<p>This is not just a matter of Canada being caught in an international conflagration involving the Trump administration after its targeted killing of Iranian Maj.-Gen. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-blast-soleimani/irans-soleimani-and-iraqs-muhandis-killed-in-air-strike-militia-spokesman-idUSKBN1Z201C">Qassem Soleimani</a>. </p>
<p>It is also the result of an unnecessarily aggressive posture of Canada’s own when, in 2012, Stephen Harper’s Conservative government closed its embassy in Tehran and expelled Iranian officials on short notice from Canada. </p>
<h2>The context of war and Flight PS752</h2>
<p>Flight PS752, with its stop in Kyiv, was popular with Iranians flying to Canada because there are no direct links between the two countries. It is also a cheap alternative route in Iran, which is impoverished by sanctions, conflict and corruption.</p>
<p>For months, the U.S. and Iran had been <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/monitors-houthis-saudi-aramco-attacks-report-200109062732396.html">antagonizing one another across</a> the Middle East. These regional rivals have been particularly aggressive since the U.S. withdrew in 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) treaty, brokered by Barack Obama’s administration, and imposed new sanctions on Iran.</p>
<p>The JCPOA had been designed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear/iran-is-complying-with-nuclear-deal-restrictions-iaea-report-idUSKCN1LF1KR">had been upholding</a> its part in the agreement.</p>
<p>This tension escalated to dramatic new heights when the U.S. carried out the unprecedented act of openly assassinating another country’s top official. A fate <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/14/13577464/obama-farewell-speech-torture-drones-nsa-surveillance-trump">typically reserved</a> for non-state players in the post 9/11 era, it was carried out at Baghdad’s international airport. Ten people died in the drone attack, including Iraqi factional commander <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/03/abu-mahdi-al-muhandis-iraq-iran-militias-suleimani">Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis</a>. This has effectively demolished existing international norms for conduct.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309538/original/file-20200111-97149-1x21v4i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309538/original/file-20200111-97149-1x21v4i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309538/original/file-20200111-97149-1x21v4i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309538/original/file-20200111-97149-1x21v4i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309538/original/file-20200111-97149-1x21v4i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309538/original/file-20200111-97149-1x21v4i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309538/original/file-20200111-97149-1x21v4i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pedestrians walk past banners of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in Iraq in a U.S. drone attack.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hillary Mann Leverett, a former White House National Security official, told <em>Al Jazeera</em> the killing of Soleimani amounted to a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/iraq-3-katyusha-rockets-fired-baghdad-airport-200102232817666.html">“declaration of war.”</a> </p>
<h2>Iran retaliated</h2>
<p>The killing led directly to Iran saying it would no longer honour the JCPOA and launching <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/politics/trump-iran-retaliation-missile-attacks/index.html">missile attacks</a> on American military bases in Iraq three days later, with no casualties. It may not be surprising in such a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-iran-crash-panic-bad-training-may-led-missile-attack-2020-1">tense environment</a> if the Iranian military fired missiles at an airliner taking off from its own airport, fearing an imminent U.S. strike. Iran, however, should likely have grounded all flights that day, too.</p>
<p>Iran first denied it had shot down the plane, but after Iranian social media users ran rampant with speculation that Iranian missiles were responsible, the government admitted to its actions. Protesters have since taken to the streets against the regime.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1216005829641543689"}"></div></p>
<p>Canada’s 2012 decision to cut diplomatic ties with Iran has played a role affecting the tragic loss of Canadian citizens.</p>
<p>It was a decision based heavily on internal political calculations. It has been at great cost to Canada’s ability to have a presence and institutional contacts in Iran to understand the politics and society there — and provide services to Canadians. </p>
<p>This lack of basic intelligence on the ground has hobbled Canada at the worst possible time. Because of these poor relations, Canada also has only limited access to participate in the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/iran-plane-crash-canada-access-investigation-1.5421352">investigation of the downed flight</a>.</p>
<h2>Trudeau primarily blamed Iran</h2>
<p>Canada justified cutting ties in 2012 by saying <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-closes-embassy-in-iran-expels-iranian-diplomats-1.1166509">Iran was</a> the world’s “most significant threat to global peace and security.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seemed <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6398641/iran-plane-crash-update-trudeau/?utm_source=notification/">to toe that line in his Jan. 11 news conference</a>, laying blame primarily on Iran. </p>
<p>Trudeau has largely been an adherent of his predecessor’s Middle East policy. However, diplomatic representation would significantly help in the aftermath of the downing of Flight PS752. What is more, countless Iranians are looking abroad for support for their own cause of reform and liberalization, and instead have been subjected to sanctions that harm innocent citizens most.</p>
<p>Diplomatic ties offer opportunities for dialogue essential to avoid conflict and resolve disputes. Further, Canadians live, travel and do business around the world, and a large community of Canadians of Iranian descent <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canadian-woman-held-in-iran-after-husband-died-now-home-safe-freeland-1.4634767">need access</a> to Canadian diplomatic representation for their own safety and well-being.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309537/original/file-20200111-97171-1h8tmeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309537/original/file-20200111-97171-1h8tmeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309537/original/file-20200111-97171-1h8tmeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309537/original/file-20200111-97171-1h8tmeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309537/original/file-20200111-97171-1h8tmeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309537/original/file-20200111-97171-1h8tmeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309537/original/file-20200111-97171-1h8tmeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mourners in Edmonton place candles and photographs during a vigil for those who were among the 176 people who were killed when Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 crashed after takeoff near Tehran, Iran.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Codie McLachlan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That is why Canada has representation with other states around the world, even some of the most notorious. Indeed, one of Trudeau’s campaign promises <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-i-ll-end-isis-combat-mission-restore-relations-with-iran-1.3124949">in 2015</a> was to restore diplomatic relations with Iran. </p>
<p>Though the Harper government added legislation that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/11926422.2018.1564683">made it difficult</a> to reverse the 2012 decision, it can be done with political will.</p>
<h2>Canadians need an embassy in Iran</h2>
<p>No one yet knows what the fallout will be from the escalation between the U.S. and Iran. The Middle East is now even more unsafe and unstable. Iran will feel compelled to respond after so egregious an attack on its officials, to save face and show attacks on its leadership come with a cost. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/war-iraqis-revive-protests-iran-tension-200110201417699.html">Iraq is in greater upheaval</a>. And no one can determine yet what the global impact will be after the U.S. so dramatically smashed existing norms of statecraft.</p>
<p>More than ever, Canada needs a presence to be able to deal on its own with the aftermath of these terrible events, with Canadian interests front and centre. As the tragedy of Flight PS752 has made explicit, Canada only hurts itself and Canadians without it. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129758/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremy Wildeman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The downing of Flight PS752 isn’t just the result of Canada being caught in U.S.-Iran crossfire. It’s also the result of an unnecessarily aggressive posture of Canada’s own against Iran in 2012.Jeremy Wildeman, Visiting Research Fellow, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1297492020-01-11T03:09:42Z2020-01-11T03:09:42ZFlight PS752: A deadly combination of Iran’s recklessness and incompetence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309521/original/file-20200111-97130-2uxxiu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C3976%2C2497&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In this Jan. 8, 2020 photo, rescue workers search the scene where a Ukrainian plane crashed in Shahedshahr, southwest of the capital Tehran, Iran. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP-Ebrahim Noroozi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The crash of Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-ukraine-plane-crash-flight-752-timeline-unfolded-events-allegations-2020-1">with the loss of all 176 people on board</a>, including 15 children and 57 Canadians, was a horrific tragedy. It’s also deeply revelatory regarding several seminal issues involving Iran.</p>
<p>Flight PS752 went down shortly after it took off from the Tehran airport, just hours after Iran fired some 15 ballistic missiles at two large bases in Iraq that housed American and allied forces, as retaliation for the U.S. drone strike that killed <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/03/asia/soleimani-profile-intl-hnk/index.html">Qassem Soleimani</a>.</p>
<p>The coincidence of the airline crash and the Iranian retaliation resulted in speculation and suspicion. The Iranian regime immediately and implausibly <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/08/iran-plane-crash-170-passengers-feared-dead-ukraine-boeing-737/">claimed mechanical problems</a> as the crash cause. As telling evidence emerged that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219">the aircraft was brought down by Iran’s own anti-aircraft missiles</a>, Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization chief, Ali Abedzadeh, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-plane-crash-iranians-deny-us-claims-missile-shot-down-ukrainian-plane-today-2020-01-10-live-updates/">adamantly denied that the crash was caused by missiles</a>. And then the story changed again: <a href="https://apnews.com/21f4a92a2dfbc38581719664bdf6f38e">Iran finally admitted that it “unintentionally” shot down the airliner</a> and blamed “human error.”</p>
<h2>No weapons of mass destruction</h2>
<p>Certainly, initial claims by Western intelligence that the airliner was brought down by Iranian missiles deserved careful scrutiny. “Intelligence-based” assertions by George W. Bush and Dick Cheney that there <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/oct/07/usa.iraq1">were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, after all, proved to be starkly wrong</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, it seemed a reasonable conclusion when extremely cautious leaders like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asserted that on the basis of strong evidence, including from Canadian intelligence services, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/09/politics/is-iran-ukraine-plane/index.html">it was highly likely that Iranian missiles shot down the airliner</a> – an assertion backed by the British prime minister. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309522/original/file-20200111-97165-xv4rrt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309522/original/file-20200111-97165-xv4rrt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309522/original/file-20200111-97165-xv4rrt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309522/original/file-20200111-97165-xv4rrt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309522/original/file-20200111-97165-xv4rrt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309522/original/file-20200111-97165-xv4rrt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309522/original/file-20200111-97165-xv4rrt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a candlelight vigil for victims of the Ukraine International Airlines crash in Tehran, in Ottawa, on Jan. 9, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html">There was also a video</a> verified by the <em>New York Times</em> that appeared to show an Iranian missile hitting a plane in the air near Tehran’s airport, and by a video trending on Iranian social media showed the same.</p>
<p>Further, there were reports that Iran <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bulldozers-ukrainian-jet-crash-site-complicate-investigation-2020-1">has been bulldozing part of the crash site</a>, that it did not secure the site as protocol would require, that much of the ground evidence is now gone and that Tehran is refusing to hand over the black boxes as normal procedure would demand. </p>
<p>It all strongly reinforced the impression that the Iranian regime was dissembling about the cause of the crash.</p>
<h2>Larger picture of Iranian regime</h2>
<p>But what’s likely to be most disturbing to the Iranian people is the larger picture of the behaviour of the Iranian regime and its long-term implications. </p>
<p>The theocratic regime has efficiently and violently suppressed all domestic dissent, and carefully but brutally fostered an image of regional and internal invincibility. It’s moved relentlessly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/16/from-tehran-to-beirut-shia-militias-aim-to-firm-up-irans-arc-of-influence">to create a Shia arc controlled from Tehran, stretching from Iran to the Mediterranean</a>. There was an aura of invulnerability around Soleimani, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/who-are-iran-s-secretive-quds-forces-n1110156">who led the Quds Force</a>, representing the tip of the spear of Iranian imperial regional ambitions, domestic repression and world support for terrorism. </p>
<p>Soleimani seemed untouchable. Yet the Americans managed to so effectively reach him and remove him.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309523/original/file-20200111-97158-8zk51k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309523/original/file-20200111-97158-8zk51k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309523/original/file-20200111-97158-8zk51k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309523/original/file-20200111-97158-8zk51k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309523/original/file-20200111-97158-8zk51k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309523/original/file-20200111-97158-8zk51k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309523/original/file-20200111-97158-8zk51k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters demonstrate in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 4, 2020, against the U.S. airstrike in Iraq that killed Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The Iranian regime, which <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/iran-attack-us-troops-at-iraqi-base-in-revenge-operation-000247595.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALUPVt_kihc07j8nx_6J3tQOpZGfmV1Urj0XuizXzUh3oPYBRPZk8tjzT3PGGhpr5vU5cTx6zs01AZPtsnBsWng8qW75p9uimzea55SJmoui_-7k9lIFsY0GRplfWk4VP--P9IJQUaoKJxblUoKhP1jgY2HHSRL6rkATxtSx7hIu">threatened “hard revenge”</a> for his targeted killing, settled for symbolic and feckless face-saving. Some of its ballistic missiles malfunctioned and others, either by design or prudent allied defence measures, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51042156">failed to inflict any casualties when fired at U.S. bases in Iraq</a>.</p>
<p>The response revealed something more than just fecklessness. The efficiency that the Iranian regime has repeatedly demonstrated in repressing any internal dissent seems to have evaporated when faced with an unpredictable, narcissistic and vindictive opponent like U.S. President Donald Trump, who chose not to play the game by the old rules. </p>
<p>The Iranian response was not only uncharacteristically weak but it reflected the fear of an all-out confrontation. Iranian overreach met Trumpian unpredictability.</p>
<h2>Reckless and incompetent</h2>
<p>The admission by Iran that its missiles brought down the flight is more than just a terrible tragedy.</p>
<p>It’s also revealed a deadly combination of the regime’s breathtaking recklessness and monumental incompetence. That the Iranian regime did not shut down air traffic when it was firing missiles at Iraqi bases, as any normal procedure requires, was nothing short of gross negligence. </p>
<p>The deaths of so many civilians, mostly Iranians, demonstrates the regime’s weakness, incompetence and callous disregard for the safety of its own citizens. </p>
<p>To be sure, the regime in the future may well engage in asymmetrical warfare. Iranian military leaders are bloviating and making dire threats against the United States and the West, but the image of the regime’s invulnerability has been forever punctured by its corruption, melded with its carelessness and incompetence.</p>
<p>For now, the U.S. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/10/politics/us-sanctions-iran-mnuchin/index.html">is imposing additional sanctions</a> on top of the already devastating ones, and Soleimani is gone. </p>
<p>The people of Iran <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/11/iran-anti-government-protests-us-support/">have been demonstrating en masse for months</a>, making it clear they don’t want to die fighting for Iraq, Syria or Lebanon or spend scarce resources that are so desperately needed at home. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/protests-in-iran-could-spell-trouble-for-the-middle-east-at-large-89588">Protests in Iran could spell trouble for the Middle East at large</a>
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<p>They may now more openly begin to blame the regime and become more emboldened.</p>
<p>Perhaps the tragedy of Flight PS752 may also finally convince the Iranian theocratic dictatorship that it’s time to stop pursuing dangerous foreign adventures.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aurel Braun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Flight PS752 is more than just a terrible tragedy. It’s also revealed the potential future costs of Iran’s irresponsibility.Aurel Braun, Professor, International Relations and Political Science, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.