tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/food-production-5901/articlesFood production – The Conversation2024-02-28T12:33:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2178832024-02-28T12:33:55Z2024-02-28T12:33:55ZThe true cost of food is far higher than what you spend at the checkout counter<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577158/original/file-20240221-22-p0v0vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5822%2C3872&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Stickers don't tell the whole story.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/customer-shops-at-a-grocery-store-on-february-13-2024-in-news-photo/2008637358">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After several years of pandemic-driven <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105846">price spikes at the grocery store</a>, retail food price inflation is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/business/economy/food-price-inflation-cools.html">slowing down</a>. That’s good news for consumers, especially those in low-income households, who spend a <a href="https://theconversation.com/swelling-grocery-bills-are-pummeling-the-poorest-who-spend-over-a-quarter-of-their-incomes-on-food-186980">proportionally larger share of their income on food</a>.</p>
<p>But there’s more to the cost of food than what we pay at the store. Producing, processing, transporting and marketing food creates costs all along the value chain. Many are borne by society as a whole or by communities and regions. </p>
<p>For example, farm runoff is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-reduce-harmful-algal-blooms-and-dead-zones-the-us-needs-a-national-strategy-for-regulating-farm-pollution-186286">top cause of algae blooms and dead zones</a> in rivers, lakes and bays. And <a href="https://refed.org/food-waste/the-problem?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiA5rGuBhCnARIsAN11vgSiHk7wAwmYKS-jz9eGPkOcGbEmBtbSUvPCULQTHcrDZ39d5AlQA28aAvHzEALw_wcB">food waste</a> takes up one-fourth of the space in U.S. landfills, where it rots, generating methane that <a href="https://theconversation.com/about-one-third-of-the-food-americans-buy-is-wasted-hurting-the-climate-and-consumers-wallets-194956">warms Earth’s climate</a>. </p>
<p>Exploring these lesser-known costs is the first step toward reducing them. The key is a method called <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-edit/10.4324/9781003050803/true-cost-accounting-food-barbara-gemmill-herren-lauren-baker-paula-daniels">true cost accounting</a>, which examines the economic, environmental, social and health impacts of food production and consumption to produce a broader picture of its costs and benefits. </p>
<h2>Trillions of dollars in uncounted costs</h2>
<p>Every year since 1947, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has released an important and widely read report called <a href="https://www.fao.org/publications/home/fao-flagship-publications/the-state-of-food-and-agriculture/en">The State of Food and Agriculture</a>, known in the food sector as SOFA. <a href="https://www.fao.org/publications/home/fao-flagship-publications/the-state-of-food-and-agriculture/en">SOFA 2023</a> examines how much more our food costs beyond what consumers pay at the grocery store. </p>
<p>Using true cost accounting, the report calculates that the global cost of the agrifood system in 2020 was up to US$12.7 trillion more than consumers paid at retail. That’s equivalent to about 10% of global gross domestic product, or $5 per person per day worldwide. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">True cost accounting is designed to measure the full impacts of producing, transporting and consuming food.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In traditional economics-speak, hidden costs are <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/externality.asp">known as externalities</a> – spillover effects from production that are caused by one party but paid for by another. Some externalities are positive. For example, birds, butterflies and insects pollinate crops at no charge, and everyone who eats those crops benefits. Others, such as pollution, are negative. Delivery trucks emit pollution, and everyone nearby breathes dirtier air. </p>
<p>True cost accounting seeks to make those externalities visible. To do this, scholars analyze data related to environmental, health, social and other costs and benefits, add them together and calculate a price tag that represents what food really costs. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://globalfutures.asu.edu/food/">Swette Center for Sustainable Food Systems</a> at Arizona State University, which I direct, recently conducted a <a href="https://cdn.globalfutures.asu.edu/food/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2023/07/04252023-Unveiling-Hidden-Capitals_web.pdf">true cost accounting study</a> of <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2011/june/beef-cow-calf-production/">cow-calf operations</a> in the Western U.S., in partnership with Colorado State University. It found that the climate costs of these operations are very high – but that solving for climate change alone could threaten the livelihoods of 70,000 ranchers and the rural communities in which they live. A true cost accounting approach can illuminate the need for multidimensional solutions. </p>
<p>I study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GRi_wHAAAAAJ&hl=en">sustainable food systems</a> and am one of 150 scholars across 33 countries who worked together over several years to <a href="https://teebweb.org/publications/teebagrifood/">design and test this new methodology</a>. Our work was led by the U.N. Environment Program and partially funded by the <a href="https://futureoffood.org/">Global Alliance for the Future of Food</a>, a coalition of philanthropic foundations. </p>
<p>In many ways, true cost accounting is a modern and <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/oa-edit/10.4324/9781003050803-12/embedding-tca-within-us-regulatory-decision-making-kathleen-merrigan">improved version of cost-benefit analysis</a>, a method embedded in governmental decision-making in most advanced economies around the world. This approach <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cost-benefitanalysis.asp">quantifies expected rewards and costs</a> associated with taking a particular action and then compares them to see whether the action is likely to produce a net gain or loss for the public.</p>
<p>Advocates of true cost accounting assert that its <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cc7724en/online/state-of-food-and-agriculture-2023/true-cost-accounting-assessment.html">more nuanced approach</a> will address shortcomings in traditional cost-benefit analysis – particularly, failing to consider social and health externalities in depth. The hope is that because these two methods have many similarities, it should be relatively easy for governments to upgrade to true cost accounting as it becomes more widely adopted. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577165/original/file-20240221-24-uqywqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dozens of young pigs feed in pens inside a large modern barn." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577165/original/file-20240221-24-uqywqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577165/original/file-20240221-24-uqywqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577165/original/file-20240221-24-uqywqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577165/original/file-20240221-24-uqywqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577165/original/file-20240221-24-uqywqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577165/original/file-20240221-24-uqywqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577165/original/file-20240221-24-uqywqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Large-scale livestock farms produce food efficiently at a low cost, but they generate odors and huge quantities of animal waste that can affect adjoining communities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FactoryFarmFuror/7e9ceabcae514e9e8111ee867ed05244/photo">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall</a></span>
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<h2>True costs of food vary across countries</h2>
<p>The 2023 State of Food and Agriculture report <a href="https://www.fao.org/interactive/state-of-food-agriculture/en/">reveals some clear patterns</a>. Of the $12.7 trillion in worldwide hidden costs that it tallies, 39% are generated by upper-middle-income countries and 36% by high-income countries. </p>
<p>For wealthy countries, 84% of hidden costs derive from unhealthy dietary patterns, such as eating large quantities of red meat and heavily processed foods, which is associated with <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/whats-the-beef-with-red-meat">elevated risk of heart disease, cancer and other illnesses</a>. Getting sick takes people away from work, so these health effects also reduce productivity, which affects the economy.</p>
<p>In contrast, 50% of the hidden costs of food in low-income countries are social costs that stem from poverty and undernourishment. SOFA 2023 estimates that incomes of poor people who produce food in low-income countries would need to increase by 57% for these workers to obtain sufficient revenue and calories for productive lives. </p>
<p>Food insecurity on farms is also an issue in the U.S., where the people who produce our food <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-023-10448-0">sometimes go hungry themselves</a>. The food system’s reliance on <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-labor/#size">undocumented and low-paid workers</a> yields <a href="https://youthtoday.org/2022/10/youth-agricultural-workers-arent-protected-equally-under-u-s-labor-law/">undernourished children who often are unable to learn</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that many U.S. farmworkers lack access to health insurance also generates costs, since hospitals <a href="https://www.ppic.org/publication/health-care-access-among-californias-farmworkers/">treat them at public expense</a> when these workers fall sick or are injured. </p>
<p>Food production also has environmental costs. <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-few-heavy-storms-cause-a-big-chunk-of-nitrogen-pollution-from-midwest-farms-146980">Nitrogen runoff</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/epa-has-tightened-its-target-for-deadly-particle-pollution-states-need-more-tools-to-reach-it-223610">ammonia emissions</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">deforestation</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-reduce-harmful-algal-blooms-and-dead-zones-the-us-needs-a-national-strategy-for-regulating-farm-pollution-186286">water pollution</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/food-production-generates-more-than-a-third-of-manmade-greenhouse-gas-emissions-a-new-framework-tells-us-how-much-comes-from-crops-countries-and-regions-167623">greenhouse gas emissions</a> combined represent about 20% of the global hidden costs of food production. Other environmental costs, such as those associated with species loss and pesticide exposure, are not included in the SOFA analysis. </p>
<h2>Should food cost more?</h2>
<p>The first question people ask me about true cost accounting is whether using it will make food more expensive. Some advocates do argue for pricing food at a level that internalizes its hidden costs. </p>
<p>For example, a Dutch organization called <a href="https://trueprice.org/">True Price</a> works with food companies to help them <a href="https://tonyschocolonely.com/us/en/our-mission/news/why-we-wont-stop-paying-a-higher-price-for-cocoa">charge more accurate prices</a>. The group operates a <a href="https://trueprice.org/supermarket-de-aanzet/">grocery store in Amsterdam</a> that charges conventional prices but provides receipts that also <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/how-much-do-things-really-cost">display “true” prices</a>, reflecting the goods’ hidden costs. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/ChH0pHdMbic/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Consumers are encouraged to pay these higher prices. When they do, the store shares the proceeds with two nonprofit organizations that promote <a href="https://landandlife.foundation/">land and wildlife conservation</a> and <a href="https://www.givedirectly.org/">poverty reduction</a> in Africa. </p>
<p>Rather than raising prices, I believe the most effective way to address the hidden costs of food would be to change government policies that provide <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb6562en/cb6562en.pdf">$540 billion in agricultural subsidies</a> worldwide every year. Of this amount, 87% goes to support production systems that produce cheap food, fiber and biofuels but also generate social and environmental harms. Examples include subsides that promote chemical fertilizer and pesticide use, overuse of natural resources and cultivation of emission-intensive products such as rice. </p>
<p>U.N. agencies have urged world leaders to redirect these subsidies to reduce negative impacts – a strategy they call “<a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/un-report-calls-repurposing-usd-470-billion-agricultural-support">a multibillion-dollar opportunity to transform food systems</a>.” While it may seem that eliminating subsidies would raise retail prices, that’s not necessarily true – especially if they are repurposed to support sustainable, equitable and efficient production.</p>
<p>Using true cost accounting as a guide, policymakers could reallocate some of these vast sums of money toward production methods that deliver net-positive benefits, such as expanding <a href="https://theconversation.com/organic-food-has-become-mainstream-but-still-has-room-to-grow-164220">organic agriculture</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/trees-can-make-farms-more-sustainable-heres-how-to-help-farmers-plant-more-222030">agroforestry</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-information-age-is-starting-to-transform-fishing-worldwide-179352">sustainable fisheries</a>. They also could invest in training and supporting next-generation food and agriculture leaders.</p>
<p>By creating transparency, true cost accounting can help shift money away from harmful food production systems and toward alternatives that protect resources and rural communities. Doing so could reduce the hidden costs of feeding the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathleen Merrigan served as a reviewer for the SOFA 2023 report described in this article. She has received funding from the Global Alliance for the Future of Food.</span></em></p>A new UN report finds that the true global cost of producing food is $12.7 trillion more than consumers pay at the checkout counter. We pay those uncounted costs in other ways.Kathleen Merrigan, Executive Director, Swette Center for Sustainable Food Systems, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239602024-02-25T19:09:48Z2024-02-25T19:09:48ZA ‘war on red meat’? No, changes to Australian dietary guidelines are just a sensible response to Earth’s environmental woes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577506/original/file-20240223-24-czbzv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5599%2C3732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Official dietary advice in Australia <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/eating-green-ideology-official-diet-advice-to-warn-of-climate-impact/news-story/7deeaf36dea21fcc8a443e006312e42d">is set to warn</a> of the climate impact of certain foods. The move has raised the ire of farmers, meat producers and others who branded it “green ideology” and a “war on meat”.</p>
<p>Critics say the The National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), which is behind the change, is overreaching and should not expand its remit beyond providing nutritional advice. We strongly disagree. </p>
<p>Having <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-7707-6">explored</a> the scientific evidence about the harm food can cause to both the planet and human health, we firmly believe environmental information about food choices should be prominent in dietary guidelines. </p>
<p>Human health depends on having a safe, liveable planet and the state of our planet is inextricably linked to food systems. It’s entirely sensible that consumers are informed about whether their food choices are sustainable.</p>
<h2>‘A thorough review of the evidence’</h2>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://www.eatforhealth.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/the_guidelines/n55_australian_dietary_guidelines.pdf">dietary guidelines</a> were released in 2013. The document provides general information about the environmental sustainability of food, but it’s buried in an appendix and the recommendations are fairly inconclusive.</p>
<p>The guidelines are currently under review and will be updated in 2026. The NHMRC says feedback from the public suggested sustainability information should be more accessible and explicit in the new guidelines. In fact, it said one in three people surveyed nominated the change as a priority. </p>
<p>The NHMRC says developing or updating its guidelines involves:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>a thorough review of the evidence, methodological advice on the quality of these reviews, drafting of the guidelines, public consultation and independent expert review of the final guidelines. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>It said the dietary recommendations would first consider Australia-specific health impacts, followed by sustainability and other factors – an approach in line with guidelines overseas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="assortment of fruit and vegetables" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia’s dietary guidelines are under review.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Critics come out swinging</h2>
<p>Australians are among the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-meat-type?country=CHN%7EUSA%7EIND%7EARG%7EPRT%7EETH%7EJPN%7EBRA%7EOWID_WRL%7EESP%7EDEU%7EAUS">world’s biggest</a> meat eaters. However, recent trends indicate Australians’ beef consumption is <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/au/bed/meat-consumption/43/">in decline</a>. </p>
<p>Meat creates <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00358-x">almost 60%</a> of greenhouse gas emissions from food production, and <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaq0216">red meat has the highest</a> environmental footprint out of all food choices. </p>
<p>Perhaps unsurprisingly, the change to dietary guidelines has prompted opposition from some quarters. In a report in The Australian, for example, Red Meat Advisory Council chair John McKillop <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/eating-green-ideology-official-diet-advice-to-warn-of-climate-impact/news-story/7deeaf36dea21fcc8a443e006312e42d">said</a> the moves:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>go well beyond the policy intent of the Australian Dietary Guidelines to provide recommendations on healthy foods and dietary patterns […] [the] review process must not be allowed to be used as a vehicle to drive ideological agendas at the expense of the latest nutritional science.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He said the industry’s concerns were not related to its progress on sustainability, about which it had “a strong story” to tell.</p>
<p>The newspaper also quoted a Central Queensland cattle farmer, who said perceived misinformation about the health impacts and sustainability of red meat production were rife in the media, public policy and nutritional advice.</p>
<p>Conservative media outlets also weighed in on the changes. Sydney radio station 2GB <a href="https://www.2gb.com/war-on-meat-diet-advice-to-include-impacts-on-emissions/">declared</a> the move a “war on meat” and host Ben Fordham <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/war-on-meat-aussie-farmers-screwed-over-again-as-ben-fordham-slams-new-dietary-guidelines-which-could-soon-promote-an-ideological-climate-agenda/news-story/6f06f2101304ea898d124284d79da506">claimed</a> farmers were being “screwed over again”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meat-and-masculinity-why-some-men-just-cant-stomach-plant-based-food-174785">Meat and masculinity: why some men just can't stomach plant-based food</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="pieces of steak" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australians are among the world’s biggest meat eaters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The global picture</h2>
<p>The upcoming changes are not unprecedented globally. Environmental sustainability is highlighted in the official dietary guidelines of at least <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00246-7/fulltext">ten other countries</a>. They include Sweden which introduced <a href="https://www.fao.org/nutrition/education/food-dietary-guidelines/regions/countries/sweden/en/">climate-friendly food advice</a> in 2015. </p>
<p>The title of the <a href="https://www.livsmedelsverket.se/matvanor-halsa--miljo/kostrad/rad-om-bra-mat-hitta-ditt-satt">Swedish guidelines</a> translates to “Find your way to eat greener, not too much and be active!” Among the recommendations are to: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Eat less red and processed meat, no more than 500 grams a week. Only a small amount of this should be processed meat.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But other nations have struggled to include sustainability advice in official dietary guidelines. In the United States, for example, lobby groups <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/26/usda-diet-guide-myplate-climate-crisis">prevented the change</a>, despite the recommendations of government-appointed nutritionists.</p>
<h2>Dietary officials have not overreached</h2>
<p>The Australian dietary guidelines already suggest limiting red meat consumption on health grounds. </p>
<p>Research has shown <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/cutting-red-meat-for-a-longer-life">regular consumption of red meat</a>, especially if it’s processed, contributes substantially to the risk of premature death. A high intake of red meat has been <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31788-4/fulltext">associated with</a> cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, cancers and type 2 diabetes. </p>
<p>Adding information about the environmental effects of red meat health simply reinforces the benefits of eating less of it.</p>
<p>The link between food, the natural environment and health is <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4985113/">well-established</a>. Even before food is produced, vegetation is cleared to create space for crops and livestock. This leads to both the release of carbon dioxide and biodiversity loss, among other harms. </p>
<p>When it comes to meat, the digestive systems of sheep and cattle <a href="https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/dpi/climate/climate-science-and-policy/climate-policy-environment/values-of-mixed-farming-systems#:%7E:text=The%20farming%20of%20beef%20and,trapping%20heat%20in%20the%20atmosphere.">produce a lot of methane</a>, a potent greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gas emissions are also created when food is processed, transported, stored and disposed of. Food packaging contributes to pressure on landfill and creates pollution.</p>
<p>All these processes threaten human health. Researchers have <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31788-4/fulltext">called for</a> a global transformation of food systems, to ensure they operate within Earth’s limits.</p>
<p>The role of NHMRC is to protect public health in Australia. It makes sense, then, that it provides consumers with information about which foods cause the least environmental damage – and by extension, are also good for their personal health. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Excavator on forest cleared for livestock" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clearing land for food production is a major source of biodiversity and vegetation loss.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A rightful part of the public health agenda</h2>
<p>Dietary guidelines are a government tool to influence food consumption towards good choices. They are based on the best available evidence, and evolve along with our understanding of food and its impacts. </p>
<p>Of course, even if Australia’s guidelines are changed to incorporate environmental advice, this does not guarantee everyone will make healthy and sustainable food choices. Such a shift requires major behaviour changes, of which dietary guidelines are only one component. </p>
<p>Arming consumers with the right information about food sustainability however should be part of the federal government’s public health agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dora Marinova receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diana Bogueva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Human health depends on having a liveable planet and this is inextricably linked to food systems.Dora Marinova, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityDiana Bogueva, Research Fellow, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2157062023-11-13T01:11:49Z2023-11-13T01:11:49ZGrowing NZ cities eat up fertile land – but housing and food production can co-exist<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558498/original/file-20231108-17-5s15y9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C513%2C5232%2C2450&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Donald Royds</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Auckland Council recently voted to <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/501557/auckland-council-adopts-plan-to-intensify-housing-in-existing-suburbs">decrease the amount of city fringe land available for development</a>, citing flood risks and infrastructure costs. </p>
<p>Meanwhile in Christchurch, plans for an 850-home development north of the city have been <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-democracy-reporting/301004121/council-backs-call-to-reject-850home-ohoka-development">rejected</a> because of the area’s “existing rural nature and the lack of public transport and local jobs”.</p>
<p>Cities around the world face a similar dilemma: population growth and housing shortages mean urban expansion often encroaches on rural productive land.</p>
<p>Fertile soil is one of the reasons why many cites were originally set up in certain sites, but now the loss of these food-producing landscapes to urban growth is widely recognised as a <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1606036114">concern to local food security</a>.</p>
<p>The edges of cities – the “peri-urban” zone – are critically important for urban resilience. Apart from food, they supply ecosystem services such as flood and stormwater mitigation, cooling and climate regulation, carbon storage, waste treatment and recreation.</p>
<p>It could be said that the conversion of peri-urban agricultural land for urban expansion unwittingly undermines the very <a href="https://www.landcareresearch.co.nz/assets/Publications/Ecosystem-services-in-New-Zealand/1_18_Meurk.pdf">life support on which city dwellers depend</a>. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://ourlandandwater.nz/news/rethinking-the-whenua-around-our-cities-could-help-turn-the-table-on-our-food-crisis/">research</a> explores possible solutions that allow food production and housing to co-exist within peri-urban zones. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-sustainable-liveable-and-resilient-housing-can-help-us-adapt-to-a-changing-future-212412">How sustainable, liveable and resilient housing can help us adapt to a changing future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The housing-agriculture conundrum</h2>
<p>In Aotearoa New Zealand, the competition for land for either housing or food production within the peri-urban zone is intense. Local and regional councils
have to attempt to mediate between two recently gazetted national policy statements that seem at odds. </p>
<p>The 2020 <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/acts-and-regulations/national-policy-statements/national-policy-statement-urban-development/">National Policy Statement for Urban Development</a> requires councils to remove barriers to urban expansion, both up and out. The 2022 <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/national-policy-statement-for-highly-productive-land/">National Policy Statement on Highly Productive Land</a> requires councils to avoid urban encroachment and protect highly productive land for agriculture. </p>
<p>A recent Ministry for the Environment <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/assets/Publications/our-land-2021.pdf">report</a> states:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The area of highly productive land that was unavailable for agriculture (because it had a house on it) increased by 54% from 2002 to 2019.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Rows of new houses being built on productive farm land." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558496/original/file-20231108-15-w8cqbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558496/original/file-20231108-15-w8cqbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558496/original/file-20231108-15-w8cqbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558496/original/file-20231108-15-w8cqbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558496/original/file-20231108-15-w8cqbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558496/original/file-20231108-15-w8cqbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558496/original/file-20231108-15-w8cqbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This drone image shows a farm in Rolleston awaiting further suburban conversion, with roads starting and stopping on either side of the farm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Donald Royds</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Urban resilience and food production</h2>
<p>Peri-urban zones have an important role in supplying locally produced food. This helps reduce transport emissions to meet New Zealand’s <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/areas-of-work/climate-change/emissions-reduction-plan/">emissions reduction targets</a>. But there is a growing disconnect between where New Zealand’s food is produced and where the majority of New Zealanders live. </p>
<p>The dominant approach to urban growth is through greenfield development (building on undeveloped land), and this ultimately compromises the productive land belt around many cities and settlements. This can result in the irreversible loss of some of our most fertile soils.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-housing-u-turn-promotes-urban-sprawl-cities-and-ratepayers-will-pick-up-the-bill-206762">National’s housing u-turn promotes urban sprawl – cities and ratepayers will pick up the bill</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Multiple factors affect where food can be produced within the peri-urban zone. This includes policy, land value, soil versatility, natural resources such as water and, increasingly, the level of “reverse sensitivity” – a term used to describe, in this instance, the impacts of newer land uses (such as housing) on prior activities (agriculture) in mixed-use areas.</p>
<p>Planning policy often <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1745-5871.12266">fails to keep up with changes</a> in housing markets, agricultural practice and lifestyle choices. This then results in reactive planning approaches, putting high-value soil and other land suitable for food production at continued risk of development and fragmentation. </p>
<p>This is compounded by public and political pressures that can lead to tensions between food producers and their residential neighbours.</p>
<h2>Combined land use</h2>
<p>Our team has surveyed households and food producers living and operating within the peri-urban zone of Ōtautahi Christchurch to better understand the issues. We also wanted to explore opportunities arising from food production and housing co-existing within peri-urban zones. </p>
<p>Based on the views of surveyed participants, we developed five land-use design concepts, which were then evaluated by participants during a public workshop. </p>
<p>Of these five options, a multi-functional green belt (below) was most favoured. This green belt is a publicly accessible buffer between urban areas and conventional farms, including public open spaces, community gardens, sports fields, walking tracks, native plantings, stormwater management zones and playgrounds.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graphic showing a multi-function green belt between residential and rural lands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558503/original/file-20231108-19-gues8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558503/original/file-20231108-19-gues8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558503/original/file-20231108-19-gues8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558503/original/file-20231108-19-gues8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558503/original/file-20231108-19-gues8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558503/original/file-20231108-19-gues8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558503/original/file-20231108-19-gues8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The green belt between houses and farms provides many uses, including playgrounds and community gardens.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shannon Davis and Hanley Chen</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other scenarios included different options of either separating or integrating urban and rural land uses.</p>
<h2>What did peri-urban residents and food producers say?</h2>
<p>Our research reveals that residents like having food-producing landscapes close to where they live. More than 60% of respondents felt “extremely positive” and 32% “mostly positive” towards these landscapes. </p>
<p>One of our key findings suggests residents were mostly happy to accept the day-to-day nuisances of farm operations, but they wanted their household to benefit by being able to access food produced locally. </p>
<p>Food producers expressed more neutral feelings towards operating in the peri-urban zone. For them, being close to their potential customers, as well as benefiting from urban infrastructure such as high-speed internet, was important. </p>
<p>But our survey also highlights that peri-urban residents are concerned about possible negative impacts of nearby intensive farming, and producers fear facing complaints from their urban neighbours. Both groups called for greater agricultural literacy for urban New Zealanders. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/building-on-the-greenbelt-is-central-to-solving-the-housing-crisis-just-look-at-how-the-edges-of-cities-have-changed-212217">Building on the greenbelt is central to solving the housing crisis – just look at how the edges of cities have changed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Integrating people and production</h2>
<p>How should we prioritise peri-urban food production alongside strategic urban expansion? </p>
<p>The loss of agricultural land to urban development, the disconnect between local farms and their urban markets, and the recent drive to create more sustainable infrastructure within and around cities, have all engendered planning and urban design programmes that aim to protect and reconnect cities with their food. </p>
<p>Redesigning peri-urban land-use patterns to integrate housing with productive land uses has the potential to connect New Zealanders with the land while mitigating the current rural-urban dichotomy approach to planning. </p>
<p>Embedding mana whenua values of connectedness with the environment offers significant opportunities to nourish both the land and communities that reside within. The reintegration of mahinga kai (food-gathering sites) and māra kai (food gardens) principles would support the health and resilience of both people and the land connected to cities.</p>
<p>Accessible local food production is an <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204621000189">essential component of long-term urban resilience</a>. To achieve this, we argue that we need a new approach to peri-urban land-use planning for Aotearoa New Zealand in which landscapes for both people and production are integrated and mutually beneficial.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>We are grateful for the significant contribution to this research made by Guanyu Hanley Chen and Naomi Darvill from Lincoln University, and John Blyth, Sara Hodgson and Lydia Shirely from BECA.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research was funded by the National Science Challenge: Our Land and Water. Shannon is a member of the New Zealand Institute of Landscape Architects.</span></em></p>New Zealand cities grow mostly through building houses on undeveloped land. But this removes fertile soil and undermines the food production and other ecological functions city dwellers depend on.Shannon Davis, Lecturer in Landscape Planning, Lincoln University, New ZealandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2077022023-07-09T12:02:18Z2023-07-09T12:02:18ZThe true cost of food: High grocery prices are not the root issue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535884/original/file-20230705-27-d02r66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=384%2C234%2C2745%2C1708&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">By only focusing on how to keep food costs low, we risk ignoring the underlying causes of why people cannot afford food in the first place.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Ashley Jean MacDonald)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-true-cost-of-food-high-grocery-prices-are-not-the-root-issue" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Inflation and skyrocketing grocery bills are highlighting how the cost of food is impacting our wallets. Higher prices cost everyone more, but they make it most difficult for those with low incomes to meet their basic needs. </p>
<p>On July 5, the federal government issued a one-time <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/child-family-benefits/goods-services-tax-harmonized-sales-tax-gst-hst-credit/grocery-rebate.html">grocery rebate</a> to help low-income Canadians with rising costs. Eligible families can receive up to $628 to help pay for their groceries. </p>
<p>In 2022, Canada saw the <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-631-x/11-631-x2023003-eng.htm">highest rate of food inflation in decades</a>. Although the rate of increase is slowing, Canadian families are estimated to pay up to <a href="https://www.dal.ca/sites/agri-food/research/canada-s-food-price-report-2023.html">$1,065 more for food in 2023</a>. </p>
<p>However, by only focusing on how to keep food costs low, we risk ignoring the underlying causes of why people cannot afford food in the first place.</p>
<h2>Hidden costs</h2>
<p>The price of food at the checkout counter includes the production, processing, distribution and retailing of food. It does not include the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0196333">cost to health care from diet-related diseases</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15703-5_32">current and future environmental impacts</a> or social injustices, like <a href="https://canadianfoodstudies.uwaterloo.ca/index.php/cfs/article/view/312/304">underpaying farm workers</a> or using <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdy018">forced child labour</a>.</p>
<p>These are referred to as <a href="https://capi-icpa.ca/explore/resources/externalities-and-canadian-agricultural-policy-role-rationale-and-results/">negative externalities</a>. These are the spillover effects of a food production system that does not consider broader impacts on society.</p>
<p>In 2011, the external cost of agricultural production to the environment in Central and Western Canada alone was estimated to be about <a href="https://capi-icpa.ca/explore/resources/measuring-externalities-in-canadian-agriculture-understanding-the-impact-of-agricultural-production-on-the-environment/">$8.9 billion</a>. When externalities are taken into account, the true cost of food in the United States is <a href="https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/report/true-cost-of-food-measuring-what-matters-to-transform-the-u-s-food-system/">three times the amount Americans pay</a>. </p>
<p>This means that much of the food we buy is underpriced because of various social, economic and environmental externalities. We may not be paying for these hidden costs at the checkout, but we do so with our health-care costs, poor food quality and social inequalities. People in the Global South and those living with low incomes are disproportionately impacted by these hidden costs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534187/original/file-20230626-33547-m6ps6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman shops in the fresh produce section of a supermarket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534187/original/file-20230626-33547-m6ps6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534187/original/file-20230626-33547-m6ps6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534187/original/file-20230626-33547-m6ps6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534187/original/file-20230626-33547-m6ps6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534187/original/file-20230626-33547-m6ps6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534187/original/file-20230626-33547-m6ps6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534187/original/file-20230626-33547-m6ps6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The prices we see at the supermarket often do not reflect the health, environmental and social costs of food production.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Putting food costs in perspective</h2>
<p>With the current focus on increasing food prices, it may be surprising that Canadians spend relatively little on food. According to a 2016 study — the last year for which data is available — Canada was among five countries in the world that <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/this-map-shows-how-much-each-country-spends-on-food/">spend the least on food</a>. </p>
<p>In 2022, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610058701">Canadians spent, on average, 11 per cent of their income on food</a>. Those with the highest incomes spent 5.2 per cent on food, while those living with the lowest incomes spent up to 23 per cent of their income on food. That means those with the lowest income most significantly felt the burden of increased food costs. </p>
<p>The percentage of income spent on food has been decreasing since the 1960s. In <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2018/statcan/62-531/CS62-532-1969-2.pdf">1969, Canadians spent 19.6 per cent of their income on food</a>. While food prices have increased due to the pandemic and inflation, food spending among Canadians has been relatively stable since 2010 at <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110022401&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2010&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2019&referencePeriods=20100101%2C20190101">between 10 to 11 per cent</a> of their incomes. </p>
<p>Although the cost of food increases, the most vulnerable people in the food system, farmers and farm workers, receive a small portion of the proceeds. In Canada, agricultural sector wages are below the average, with weekly earnings about <a href="https://cahrc-ccrha.ca/resources/document/how-labour-challenges-will-shape-future-agriculture-agriculture-forecast-2029">21 per cent less than other sectors</a>. In 2021, U.S. farmers and farm workers received only <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-dollar-series/download-the-data/">7.4 cents of every dollar</a> spent on food. In 2013, <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-dollar-series/download-the-data/">they received 10.2 cents</a>. </p>
<h2>High food prices are not the root issue</h2>
<p>High food prices are not the main reason people can’t afford food. Poverty is. Poverty is a systemic issue, often resulting from poor government policies, income inequality and systemic forms of discrimination. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610058701">average Canadian household</a> experienced a 16 per cent increase in income from 1999 to 2022. However, the amount of money spent on housing increased by 12 per cent, and spending on health by 35.6 per cent. </p>
<p>In addition, people with low incomes are increasingly identifying systemic issues, like racism and colonialism, as <a href="https://foodsecurecanada.org/resources-news/news-media/research-report-sustainable-consumption-all-revisiting-accessibility">main barriers to achieving food security</a>. Even with low food costs, racialized people face numerous barriers in achieving food security. Systemic discrimination leads to a concentration of social and economic disadvantages that increase food insecurity rates.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/07/staff-discussion-paper-2022-16/">Income inequality</a> in Canada increased substantially during the 1980s and 1990s. That pattern hasn’t changed. Today, the groups most likely to experience low incomes continue to be Indigenous Peoples and racialized Canadians. </p>
<p><a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/as-sa/98-200-X/2021009/98-200-X2021009-eng.cfm#">According to the last census</a>, 18.8 per cent of Indigenous people lived in a low-income household, compared to 7.9 per cent of the non-Indigenous population. Indigenous communities in Canada face food insecurity at a rate two to five times higher than other Canadians.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.17269%2Fs41997-021-00480-0">First Nation Food, Nutrition and Environment Study</a> found households that had access to food obtained using traditional practices were more food secure, and less likely to have complex health problems such as diabetes and heart disease. For members of these households, access to growing and harvesting food for themselves and their community was more important than lower food prices.</p>
<h2>Cheap food comes at a cost</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2023/06/23/why-are-bananas-so-cheap/">Conventional bananas are one of the cheapest</a> food items in Canadian grocery stores. They have contributed to <a href="https://www.fairtrade.net/library/the-external-costs-of-banana-production-a-global-study">chronic underpayment of farmers and farm workers, child labour practices, loss of biodiversity and water pollution</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, conventional bananas have a much higher hidden cost than fair trade bananas. Most of this is attributed to inadequate wages and a lack of social security for farmers and farm workers. By buying fair trade bananas, consumers can significantly contribute to sustainability and greater equity. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532438/original/file-20230616-21-n8qt09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A farmer tending to a banana tree." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532438/original/file-20230616-21-n8qt09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532438/original/file-20230616-21-n8qt09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532438/original/file-20230616-21-n8qt09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532438/original/file-20230616-21-n8qt09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532438/original/file-20230616-21-n8qt09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532438/original/file-20230616-21-n8qt09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532438/original/file-20230616-21-n8qt09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A farmer from the Fairtrade International certified banana co-operative in Ecuador.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Fairtrade Canada)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fair trade produce might be more expensive, however as a result farmers and farm workers receive fairer wages and there is greater transparency throughout the entire supply chain.</p>
<p><a href="https://fairfoodprogram.org/">The Fair Food Program</a> encourages corporations to buy produce from farms that treat their workers humanely and compensate them fairly. <a href="https://indd.adobe.com/view/2e8c5302-3772-4122-a6a7-f345d4801a16">The latest report from The Fair Food Program</a> demonstrates a decrease in injuries, violence and reported sexual harassment among workers of farms that partake in the program.</p>
<p>In the early 2000s, buyers agreed to <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/food/2014/01/farm-workers-win-extra-penny-ultimate-penny-pincher-walmart/">pay a penny more</a> for every pound of tomatoes, passing it on to farm workers. This went directly to the farm workers, which equated to a 20-35 per cent increase in weekly pay.</p>
<p>The hidden costs of cheap food are disproportionally harming racialized communities and those with low incomes. They also deprive us all of a just, equitable and sustainable food system. Paying farmers and food workers more is an investment in the local economy and a more resilient, equitable and just global food system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207702/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monika Korzun currently holds a postdoctoral fellowship at Dalhousie University funded by the McCain Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashley Jean MacDonald and Donna Appavoo do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many people are experiencing the sticker shock of higher prices at grocery stores. But the amount we pay for food often does not reflect the real social, environmental and human costs of production.Monika Korzun, McCain Foundation Postdoctoral Fellow at Faculty of Agriculture, Dalhousie UniversityAshley Jean MacDonald, PhD Student, Faculty of Agriculture, Dalhousie UniversityDonna Appavoo, Contract Instructor, Chang School of Continuing Education, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073642023-07-05T13:26:05Z2023-07-05T13:26:05ZGenetically modified crops may be a solution to hunger - why there is scepticism in Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535785/original/file-20230705-7822-chcomm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hunger and undernourishment are two elements of food insecurity that have plagued Africa for years. And the menace is growing.</p>
<p>In 2022, the African region accounted for the highest level of hunger as described by <a href="https://www.globalhungerindex.org/trends.html">Global Hunger Index</a>. According to the World Health Organization, over <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/06-07-2022-un-report--global-hunger-numbers-rose-to-as-many-as-828-million-in-2021">340 million Africans were undernourished and severely food insecure between 2014 and 2020</a>. </p>
<p>Low agricultural productivity and post-harvest losses are some of the reasons.</p>
<p>Evidence from the past two decades <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/12/2/439">suggests</a> that genetically modified (GM) crops could resolve low agricultural productivity, nutrition and food insecurity on the continent. </p>
<p>Scientists have <a href="https://www.isaaa.org/resources/publications/pocketk/16">shown</a> that GM technology increases yield, develops disease-resistant crops, and creates varieties that can tolerate drought. </p>
<p>But the technology is controversial. In Africa, only Nigeria, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Malawi, Sudan, South Africa and Kenya allow commercial production and importation of GM products. Other African countries oppose them, largely because of the European Union (EU) <a href="https://food.ec.europa.eu/plants/genetically-modified-organisms/gmo-legislation_en">stance</a> on GM products, limited scientific capacity and the high cost of regulation. </p>
<p>The EU’s strict <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-eus-green-deal-opportunities-threats-and-risks-for-south-african-agriculture-170811">regulations</a> on GM products have affected its trade partners, including countries in Africa. Egypt and Burkina Faso, which had commercialised GM maize and cotton in 2008, backtracked on GM partly because of their trade relationship with the EU.</p>
<p>In 2013 I led the largest <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306919213001346">study</a> in the history of GM agriculture in Africa. It provided new perspectives on the status, development and regulation of GM crops, through the views of 305 stakeholders in six African countries. </p>
<p>In the study, my team and I developed a framework for adopting GM crops which we called fibre-feed-food (F-3). The F-3 framework adopts GM cotton (fibre) first, followed by GM feed for livestock, then GM food. It ensures that all necessary risk assessments are carried out between GM cotton and GM feed before producing GM food for human consumption. And it helps familiarise farmers and the public with new technology and allay their concerns about safety. </p>
<p>The framework has helped more than 30 African countries conduct GM crop field trials. GM products undergoing research and development include vitamin A-fortified cassava and potatoes, bacterial wilt-resistant banana and water-efficient maize, among others. </p>
<p>Based on my research in this area I believe that agricultural innovations such as <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/2048-7010-1-11">GM crops or organisms</a> have the potential to address food insecurity in Africa. </p>
<h2>The promise of GM crops</h2>
<p>The technology is already contributing to global food security. A report by the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications <a href="https://www.isaaa.org/blog/entry/default.asp?BlogDate=10/20/2022">credits</a> GM technology for the global production of 330 million tonnes of soybean and 595 million tonnes of maize over the past 25 years. The adoption of GM technology among cotton producing households in India <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3674000/">reduced</a> food insecurity by 15%-20% between 2004 and 2008. </p>
<p>Research into the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29889608/">value gained</a> from planting GM crops has shown that 65% of the gain came from higher yield and production and 35% from lower costs. </p>
<p>Farmers in developing countries have enjoyed over half of the global value gain of US$186.1 billion since the mid-1990s. In 2019, Brazil, Argentina, India, Paraguay and China <a href="https://www.isaaa.org/resources/publications/pocketk/16/">were among the 10 countries that planted the most GM crops</a> in the world. </p>
<p>GM technology also <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7061863/">offers</a> higher nutrient content in crops. For example, a trial of sweet potato bio-fortified with pro-vitamin A succeeded in Mozambique and the product was <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17449599/">accepted</a> by young children. This potentially improves child health.</p>
<p>GM crops showed environmental benefits by <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5443613/">reducing greenhouse gases</a> and pesticide use in developed countries. For example, a 2020 study suggested that GM technology worldwide <a href="https://www.isaaa.org/blog/entry/default.asp?BlogDate=10/20/2022">prevented</a> the emission of 23.6 billion kilograms of carbon dioxide. It means that the technology can help tackle global warming.</p>
<h2>Obstacles to GM crops in Africa</h2>
<p>In spite of these benefits, GM crops have not been widely adopted in Africa. Efforts to create and commercialise GM products still face stiff opposition. Uganda and Nigeria, for example, face strict regulation, limited research capacity and safety concerns.</p>
<p>In Uganda, a biosafety regulatory logjam, lack of awareness and politics undermine the application of GM technology. Different national biosafety policies have emerged over the past decade. </p>
<p>Potential risks of GM crops have led to the review and amendment of GM laws. The risks include gene flow (genes being transferred to another population), biodiversity loss and health related concerns. In 2018, a bill to regulate GM organisms in Uganda failed to be passed into law. The failure derived from <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/21645698.2023.2208999">disagreement</a> between the Ugandan parliament and the president. The overwhelming majority of parliament cited risks as the reason for outlawing GM organisms in the country. </p>
<p>The scientific community, led by the Ugandan National Agricultural Research Organisation, argues that regulations would facilitate research and development. Then there would be information to base decisions on. A decision to adopt organisms such as GM banana, for example, might reduce malnutrition and poverty. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/genetically-modified-cowpea-clears-its-first-hurdle-in-ghana-but-theres-a-long-way-to-go-186593">Genetically modified cowpea clears its first hurdle in Ghana, but there's a long way to go</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>In Nigeria, a national biosafety bill was passed into law and approved by the former president, Goodluck Jonathan, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/21645698.2023.2194221">in 2019</a>. Nigeria then commercialised GM cotton. This was followed by GM cowpea to control pod borer insects, which account for a <a href="https://www.aatf-africa.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cowpea-Project.pdf">70%-80% loss of cowpea yield annually</a>. </p>
<p>Cowpea is a major source of protein and energy, especially for rural dwellers. Yet some scientists, environmentalists and consumers in Nigeria are still wary of GM cowpea. They argue that it could eradicate the use of traditional cowpea and farmers might not be able to afford the price of GM cowpea varieties. </p>
<p>Other scientists and agro-biotech companies believe that GM cowpea can reduce food scarcity and offer nutritional benefits. Acceptance depends a lot on local evidence. And that requires scientific capacity and partnerships with private research institutes.</p>
<h2>What must be done</h2>
<p>Resilient food systems require a wide range of existing and new agricultural technologies, including GM organisms. There are several ways to encourage uptake:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>increase investment in research and innovation for agricultural biotechnology</p></li>
<li><p>educate and train scientists</p></li>
<li><p>get local scientists involved in setting the research agenda and providing evidence to inform national decision making</p></li>
<li><p>exchange ideas and information across different levels of government </p></li>
<li><p>create awareness through science communication informed by local evidence of benefits and concerns.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Policy, research and science communication must align. The goal is to ensure GM foods are safe to eat, and help end hunger and malnutrition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ademola Adenle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Genetically modified crops are increasing yield and food security in developed countries, but in Africa, a lack of adoption is limiting success.Ademola Adenle, Visiting Professor of Sustainability Science, Technical University of DenmarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2067872023-06-15T14:00:23Z2023-06-15T14:00:23ZNigeria is Africa’s leading rice producer, but still needs more - reusing wastewater for irrigation would boost farming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530601/original/file-20230607-21-xre1jv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rice is widely eaten in Nigeria. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/general-view-of-grains-of-rice-at-paul-chinedus-shop-in-a-news-photo/1233761507?adppopup=true">Benson Ibeabuchi/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rice is one of the staple foods globally, ranking <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277450587_Rice_Production_and_Water_use_Efficiency_for_Self-Sufficiency_in_Malaysia_A_Review">third after wheat and maize</a> in terms of production and consumption. It contributes <a href="https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jnsv/65/Supplement/65_S2/_pdf/-char/en">over 20% of the total calorie intake</a> of the human population.</p>
<p>In sub-Saharan Africa <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/a0869t/a0869t.pdf#page=51">rice ranks fourth in production</a> after sorghum, maize and millet. Nigeria is the continent’s <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1322372/rice-production-in-africa-by-country/">leading rice producer</a> and produces <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340620325_Effect_of_urea_deep_placement_technology_on_paddy_yield_of_rice_farmers_in_north_central_Nigeria">over 46% of west Africa’s harvest</a>. </p>
<p>The country is also a big consumer. Nigeria is one of the world’s largest markets for parboiled rice, consuming on average <a href="https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-agriculture-sector">US$4 billion worth of it each year</a>.</p>
<p>With production of <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1134510/production-of-milled-rice-in-nigeria/">5.4 million metric tonnes in 2022</a> and consumption of <a href="https://ideas.darden.virginia.edu/rising-rice-consumption-in-nigeria">almost 7 million metric tonnes</a>, Nigeria had to import the <a href="http://grainnet-com.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/grain.pdf#page=12">shortfall</a>.</p>
<p>There are various reasons it’s difficult for Nigeria to produce all the rice it needs. High inflation and production costs, insecurity, policy uncertainty, and artificial scarcity caused by middlemen are some of them. Also, some consumers prefer the imported varieties. </p>
<p>Another major reason is water scarcity. The <a href="https://agricincome.com/rice-farming-in-nigeria-beginners-guide/#:%7E:text=Clay%20or%20clay%20loamy%20soils,are%20ideal%20for%20rice%20cultivation.&text=Moist%20the%20land%20area%3B%20this,by%20irrigation%20or%20by%20rainfall.">soil for rice cultivation</a> should ideally be slightly wet and this can be achieved by rainfall or irrigation. In parts of Nigeria there’s already a <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/05/25/improving-water-supply-sanitation-and-hygiene-services-in-nigeria">shortage</a> of water for drinking, so people don’t use this precious resource on a thirsty crop.</p>
<p>A possible solution to the problem is to use wastewater for irrigation. Around the world, the <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/wastewater-resource-may-2022">idea is growing</a> that wastewater can be a resource rather than something to be discarded. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Christopher-Akinbile">As a researcher</a> working on wastewater treatment for reuse to increase rice production, I believe Nigeria ought to embrace the idea. It could boost rice production and enhance food security. It would also help in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of <a href="https://www.undp.org/sustainable-development-goals?gclid=CjwKCAjwsvujBhAXEiwA_UXnAIdXCRGZ_FgwPqKvA2ALsMEti6Io1cq3J4ovAoFVtsRvFi83dbj7JxoCvhIQAvD_BwE">zero hunger</a> before 2030.</p>
<p>In this article I offer five steps towards this.</p>
<h2>Wastewater for irrigation</h2>
<p>Information is scanty on the amount of wastewater generated in Nigeria but Lagos, the most populous state, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350034778_Sustainable_groundwater_management_in_Lagos_Nigeria_the_regulatory_framework">produces 350 million gallons (1.3 billion litres) of wastewater daily</a>. </p>
<p>If one-quarter of that water were to be recycled for rice production, nearly 75% of Nigeria’s rice shortage would be eliminated. This is based on an <a href="https://www.medwelljournals.com/abstract/?doi=rjagr.2007.71.75">estimated average water applied of 450mm, and maximum consumptive water use of 3.35mm/day to produce 1.36 tonnes per hectare</a> from a rice field in Ibadan, south-west Nigeria. </p>
<p>In many parts of the world, especially in developing countries such as China, India and Mexico, wastewater has become an important source for <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wat2.1234">agricultural irrigation</a>. It is estimated that <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095311921638534">20 million hectares of cropland are irrigated with wastewater globally</a>, accounting for nearly 10% of the irrigated agricultural land. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.hydrotech-group.com/blog/wastewater-treatment-across-the-world-which-countries-recycle-the-most-and-where-is-the-best-water-quality#:%7E:text=Israel%20is%20the%20world%20leader,of%20it%20in%20agricultural%20irrigation.">Israel recycles nearly 90% of its wastewater</a> and uses most of it for irrigation. Europe recycles <a href="https://www.hydrotech-group.com/blog/wastewater-treatment-across-the-world-which-countries-recycle-the-most-and-where-is-the-best-water-quality">60% of its wastewater</a>. <a href="https://iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JEDS/article/viewFile/30832/31665#page=1">Most African countries</a>, except Egypt, Morocco and Algeria, are yet to tap into the benefits of wastewater treatment for reuse, especially for agriculture. </p>
<p>Different methods of wastewater treatment have been tried for use in irrigation with various degrees of success. The most cost-effective is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/biological-wastewater-treatment">treatment using plants</a>, known as phytoremediation. This process uses various types of plants to remove, transfer, stabilise or destroy contaminants in soil and wastewater. It is economically feasible, environmentally and eco-friendly, prevents erosion, and improves soil fertility.</p>
<h2>Nigerian rice production</h2>
<p>Based on my research I suggest Nigeria could increase rice production by following these steps.</p>
<p><strong>1. Identify reliable sources of wastewater supply</strong></p>
<p>For wastewater to be a major alternative source of water for rice irrigation, it has to be reliable and dependable. So, the first step is to identify sources and ascertain their reliability. Rice has to be irrigated for a minimum of 90 days (depending on the variety). </p>
<p><strong>2. Structured harvesting of wastewater</strong></p>
<p>There needs to be an organised way of collecting wastewater. In an organised society, waste is collected strategically and sorted to make processing and recycling relatively easy. </p>
<p><strong>3. Wastewater treatment using phytoremediation</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/phytoremediation-17359669/#:%7E:text=Phytoremediation%20basically%20refers%20to%20the,cost%2Deffective%20environmental%20restoration%20technology.">Phytoremediation</a> is the use of plants and associated soil microbes to reduce the concentrations or toxic effects of contaminants in the environment. It is widely accepted as a cost-effective environmental restoration technology. </p>
<p>All the different categories of wastewater (domestic, industrial and so on) should be treated before administering to plants, except aquaculture wastewater, which already has nutrients that are beneficial to rice crop growth. Extreme caution must be taken when using wastewater for irrigation, especially on some vegetables and fruits that tend to accumulate contaminants that could harm human health. </p>
<p><strong>4. Increase rice cultivation using wastewater for irrigation</strong></p>
<p>Administering the treated wastewater into rice fields in a pre-determined manner and quantity is necessary for growth and optimum yield. Irrigation scheduling can ensure rice cultivation all year round irrespective of climatic variability.</p>
<p><strong>5. Increase land under cultivation using irrigated wastewater</strong></p>
<p>Rice is cultivated on <a href="https://farmcenta.com/shop/prod/31">about 3.7 million hectares of land in Nigeria</a>, representing 10.6% of the 35 million hectares of land under cultivation, out of a total arable land area of 70 million hectares. Out of the 3.7 million hectares under rice cultivation, 77% is rain-fed. The area could be tripled (11.1 million hectares) using treated wastewater. This would lead to higher grain yield, which would increase availability, lower prices and ensure self-sufficiency.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206787/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Oluwakunmi Akinbile receives funding from The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) and Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund).
Christopher Oluwakunmi Akinbile works at the Federal University of Technology Akure, Nigeria</span></em></p>Nigeria can produce more rice to feed its burgeoning population by harnessing its wastewater.Christopher Oluwakunmi Akinbile, Professor of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Technology, AkureLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2062652023-05-25T15:00:47Z2023-05-25T15:00:47ZFarmers face a soaring risk of flash droughts in every major food-growing region in coming decades, new research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528081/original/file-20230524-29-ijd54y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C22%2C2761%2C1868&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A flash drought in 2012 dried out soil, harming crops in Kansas and several other states.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/darren-becker-sifts-through-arid-topsoil-under-a-ruined-news-photo/150723365">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flash droughts develop fast, and when they hit at the wrong time, they can devastate a region’s agriculture. </p>
<p>They’re also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26692-z">becoming increasingly common</a> as the planet warms. </p>
<p>In a new study published May 25, 2023, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=PRQsIDQAAAAJ">we</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4osNQTUAAAAJ&hl=en">found</a> that the risk of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0149.1">flash droughts</a>, which can develop in the span of a few weeks, is on pace to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00826-1">rise in every major agriculture region</a> around the world in the coming decades.</p>
<p>In North America and Europe, cropland that had a 32% annual chance of a flash drought a few years ago could have as much as a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00826-1">53% annual chance of a flash drought</a> by the final decades of this century. The result would put food production, energy and water supplies under increasing pressure. The cost of damage will also rise. A flash drought in the Dakotas and Montana in 2017 caused <a href="https://www.drought.gov/documents/flash-drought-lessons-learned-2017-drought-across-us-northern-plains-and-canadian">US$2.6 billion in agricultural damage</a> in the U.S. alone.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dry field of short, sad looking corn stalks with a farm with cattle in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528085/original/file-20230524-19-oj5lmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528085/original/file-20230524-19-oj5lmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528085/original/file-20230524-19-oj5lmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528085/original/file-20230524-19-oj5lmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528085/original/file-20230524-19-oj5lmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528085/original/file-20230524-19-oj5lmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528085/original/file-20230524-19-oj5lmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stunted corn in Nebraska struggles to grow during the 2012 flash drought that covered much of the central U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WideDrought/477a0f2c1ab74163a84fb144e2674685/photo">AP Photo/Nati Harnik</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How flash droughts develop</h2>
<p>All droughts begin when precipitation stops. What’s interesting about flash droughts is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109288">how fast</a> they reinforce themselves, with some help from the warming climate. </p>
<p>When the weather is hot and dry, soil loses moisture rapidly. Dry air extracts moisture from the land, and rising temperatures can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0163.1">increase this “evaporative demand</a>.” The lack of rain during a flash drought can further contribute to the feedback processes.</p>
<p>Under these conditions, crops and vegetation begin to die much more quickly than they do during typical long-term droughts.</p>
<h2>Global warming and flash droughts</h2>
<p>In our new study, we used climate models and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00826-1">data from the past 170 years</a> to gauge the drought risks ahead under three scenarios for how quickly the world takes action to slow global warming. </p>
<p>If greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, power plants and other human sources continue at a high rate, we found that cropland in much of North America and Europe would have a 49% and 53% annual chance of flash droughts, respectively, by the final decades of this century. Globally, the largest projected increases would be in Europe and the Amazon.</p>
<p>Slowing emissions <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00826-1">can reduce the risk</a> significantly, but we found flash droughts would still increase by about 6% worldwide under a low-emissions scenario.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Charts show the amount of cropland experiencing flash droughts today in Africa, Asia, Australia, North America, South America and Europe, and project how flash drought exposure will increase based on greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528076/original/file-20230524-17-exwzrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528076/original/file-20230524-17-exwzrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528076/original/file-20230524-17-exwzrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528076/original/file-20230524-17-exwzrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528076/original/file-20230524-17-exwzrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528076/original/file-20230524-17-exwzrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528076/original/file-20230524-17-exwzrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate models indicate that more land will be in flash drought in every region in the coming decades. Three scenarios show how low (SSP126), medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emissions are likely to affect the amount of land in flash drought. In some regions, rising global emissions will bring more extreme rainfall, offsetting drought.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00826-1">Jordan Christian</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Timing is everything for agriculture</h2>
<p>We’ve lived through a number of flash drought events, and they’re not pleasant. People suffer. Farmers lose crops. Ranchers may have to sell off cattle. In 2022, a flash drought slowed barge traffic on the Mississippi River, which carries <a href="https://theconversation.com/record-low-water-levels-on-the-mississippi-river-in-2022-show-how-climate-change-is-altering-large-rivers-193920">more than 90% of U.S. agriculture exports</a>.</p>
<p>If a flash drought occurs at a critical point in the growing season, it could devastate an entire crop.</p>
<p>Corn, for example, is most vulnerable during its flowering phase, <a href="https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/silks.html">called silking</a>. That typically happens in the heat of summer. If a flash drought occurs then, it’s likely to have extreme consequences. However, a flash drought closer to harvest can actually help farmers, as they can get their equipment into the fields more easily.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A line of houseboats that once floated on a river sit in puddles on the nearly dry riverbed during a flash drought." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528083/original/file-20230524-25-la125j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528083/original/file-20230524-25-la125j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528083/original/file-20230524-25-la125j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528083/original/file-20230524-25-la125j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528083/original/file-20230524-25-la125j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528083/original/file-20230524-25-la125j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528083/original/file-20230524-25-la125j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">During Europe’s flash drought in 2022, floating houses were left sitting on a dry riverbed in the Netherlands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/floating-houses-sit-on-the-dry-bed-of-the-river-het-meertje-news-photo/1242700796">Thierry Monasse/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the southern Great Plains, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09611-0">winter wheat</a> is at its highest risk during seeding, in September to October the year before the crop’s spring harvest. When we looked at flash droughts in that region during that fall seeding period, we found greatly reduced yields the following year.</p>
<p>Looking globally, paddy rice, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3177/jnsv.65.S2">a staple</a> for more than half the global population, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc8ed">is at risk</a> in northeast China and other parts of Asia. Other crops are at risk in Europe. </p>
<p>Ranches can also be hit hard by flash droughts. During the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-019-1066-7">huge flash drought in 2012</a> in the central U.S., cattle ran out of forage and water became scarcer. If rain doesn’t fall during the growing season for natural grasses, cattle don’t have food, and ranchers may have little choice but to <a href="https://www.drought.gov/documents/flash-drought-lessons-learned-2017-drought-across-us-northern-plains-and-canadian">sell off part of their herds</a>. Again, timing is everything.</p>
<p>It’s not just agriculture. Energy and water supplies can be at risk, too. <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/high-temperatures-exacerbated-by-climate-change-made-2022-northern-hemisphere-droughts-more-likely/">Europe’s intense summer drought in 2022</a> started as a flash drought that became a larger event as a heat wave settled in. Water levels fell so low in some rivers that power plants shut down because they couldn’t get water for cooling, compounding the region’s problems. Events like those are a window into what <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab50ca">countries are already facing</a> and could see more of in the future.</p>
<p>Not every flash drought will be as severe as what the U.S. and Europe saw in 2012 and 2022, but we’re concerned about what may be ahead. </p>
<figure>
<iframe frameborder="0" class="juxtapose" width="100%" height="400" src="https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=a0dbaece-fa44-11ed-b5bd-6595d9b17862"></iframe>
</figure><figure><figcaption>A flash drought developed in the span of a few weeks in 2019. <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145762/a-flash-drought-dries-the-southeast">NASA Earth Observatory</a></figcaption></figure>
<h2>Can agriculture adapt?</h2>
<p>One way to help agriculture adapt to the rising risk is to improve forecasts for rainfall and temperature, which can help farmers as they make crucial decisions, such as whether they’ll plant or not.</p>
<p>When we talk with farmers and ranchers, they want to know what the weather will look like over the next one to six months. Meteorology is pretty adept at short-term forecasts that look out a couple of weeks, and at longer-term climate forecasts using computer models. But flash droughts evolve in a midrange window of time that is difficult to forecast.</p>
<p>We’re tackling the challenge of monitoring and <a href="http://hydrometeorology.oucreate.com/research/">improving the lead time and accuracy of forecasts</a> for flash droughts, as are other scientists. For example, the <a href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/">United States Drought Monitor</a> has developed an <a href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ConditionsOutlooks/CurrentConditions.aspx">experimental short-term map</a> that can display developing flash droughts. As scientists learn more about the conditions that cause flash droughts and about their frequency and intensity, forecasts and monitoring tools will improve.</p>
<p>Increasing awareness can also help. If short-term forecasts show that an area is not likely to get its usual precipitation, that should immediately set off alarm bells. If forecasters are also seeing the potential for increased temperatures, that heightens the risk for a flash drought’s developing.</p>
<p>Nothing is getting easier for farmers and ranchers as global temperatures rise. Understanding the risk from flash droughts will help them, and anyone concerned with water resources, manage yet another challenge of the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Basara receives funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordan Christian receives funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF). </span></em></p>If greenhouse gas emissions continue at a high rate, breadbaskets of Europe and North America will see a 50% chance of a flash drought each year by the end of this century.Jeff Basara, Associate Professor of Meteorology, University of OklahomaJordan Christian, Postdoctoral Researcher in Meteorology, University of OklahomaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2042432023-05-08T06:13:21Z2023-05-08T06:13:21ZFarmers in South Africa face power cuts and a weak rand - but a number of factors are working in their favour too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523770/original/file-20230502-18-sne03b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">All of South Africa's wheat production takes place during the winter months</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Winter is an important season for South African agriculture, with some of its key field crops being produced during the cold months of June, July and August, and maturing after that, with harvesting in December. Preparation of the land for winter crops begins in April, which is also the same time harvesting of the summer crops begins.</p>
<p>Farmers in the Western and Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo and other winter crop growing regions are making arrangements for growing winter wheat, canola, barley and oats. </p>
<p>All of the country’s wheat production takes place during the winter months, making the winter season an important contributor to the country’s wheat needs. South Africa produces <a href="https://www.namc.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/South-African-Supply-Demand-Estimates-March-2023-report.pdf">roughly 60% of its wheat requirements and imports the balance</a>. It also produces, on average, about <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Feb-23-Wintergrain-SnD.pdf">90% of its barley annual consumption</a>. Domestic production of oats is about <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Feb-23-Wintergrain-SnD.pdf">64% of annual consumption</a>. The country is <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Feb-23-Oilseeds-SnD.pdf">self sufficient in canola production</a>. Barley, oats and canola are all winter crops. </p>
<p>This year, the outlook for winter crops is clouded by a difficult operating environment, especially the areas that are under irrigation. </p>
<p>The two biggest headwinds are power cuts and dollar strength. Nevertheless, there are also positives which should take the pressure off food price rises that have hit consumers hard. These positives include a fall in the cost of inputs, like fertiliser and agrochemicals, as well as good harvests from the summer season just ending.</p>
<h2>Headwinds</h2>
<p>The main contributing factor is the increase in recurring power cuts which will affect irrigation. South Africa’s agriculture has never faced a period of power cuts as severe as the current ones.</p>
<p>The agricultural sector in general is heavily reliant on sustainable energy. For example, recent work by the <a href="https://www.bfap.co.za/">Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP)</a> shows that roughly a third of South Africa’s farming income is directly dependent on irrigation. This shows that disruptions in power supply generally puts at risk a substantive share of the South African agricultural fortunes.</p>
<p>Of all South Africa’s field crops, wheat has the largest production – <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/agbiz-calls-for-less-loadshedding-in-areas-under-irrigation-2023-01-23">about half</a> – under irrigation. Of the other key field crops, <a href="https://wandilesihlobo.com/2023/01/18/loadshedding-is-disrupting-sa-agriculture-and-agribusiness-activities/">about 15% of soybeans, 20% of maize and 34% of sugar production are under irrigation</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The potential disruption of irrigation would lead to poor yields, and ultimately a poor harvest. Such an eventuality would lead to an increase in wheat imports. </p>
<p>Industry role-players and the government are alert to the problem and are monitoring the impact closely through a <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/task-team-monitor-impact-load-shedding-agriculture-sector">ministerial task team</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/">Eskom</a>, the power monopoly, along with the government, are exploring possibilities of reducing <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-crisis-going-off-the-grid-works-for-the-wealthy-but-could-deepen-injustice-for-the-poor-200288">power cuts</a> which are expected to spike during the winter when demand usually rises.</p>
<p>The second headwind is that South African farmers have not benefited fully from the decline over the past year in the US dollar prices of some of their key inputs such as agrochemicals. This is because of the weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, shaving off some of the benefits of the price decline in US dollar terms.</p>
<p>Thirdly, farmers are experiencing lower commodity prices compared with last year. But a drop in input prices is providing a necessary financial cushion.</p>
<h2>There are positives</h2>
<p>On the plus side, the area plantings for all South Africa’s major crops are expected to be above the five-year average area. This is according to <a href="https://www.sagis.org.za/cec.html">Crop Estimates Committee</a>, a government and industry body that monitors crop production.</p>
<p>Secondly, input prices have come off from last year’s highs. For example, in February 2023, essential agrochemicals such as glyphosate, acetochlor, and atrazine were down in rand terms by <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Chemical-and-Fertilizer-Report_Mrt-2023.pdf">32%, 18%, and 2%</a>, respectively compared to February 2022. These price declines have continued through to March 2023. </p>
<p>These declines would have been higher had the South African Rand not weakened against the US dollar over the same period. That’s because in US dollar terms, the prices of the very same agrochemicals are down by 30% from February 2022. Prices of insecticides and fungicides have also declined notably from last year’s levels.</p>
<p>Also worth noting is that in February 2023, essential fertilisers such as ammonia, urea, di-ammonium phosphate and potassium chloride were down <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Chemical-and-Fertilizer-Report_Mrt-2023.pdf">6%, 36%, 28% and 14% in rand terms</a>, respectively. Again, in US dollar terms, the price decline was more notable, which speaks to the impact of the relatively weaker South African rand on imported products.</p>
<p>These price changes in inputs are vital as they impact vast components of the grain input costs. For example, fertiliser accounts for a third of grain farmers’ input costs, while other agrochemicals account for roughly 13%. </p>
<p>A third positive factor is that the weather conditions for the winter crops also remain positive. In its <a href="https://www.weathersa.co.za/home/seasonalclimate">Seasonal Climate Watch update</a> published on 03 April 2023, the South African Weather Service <a href="https://www.ingwelala.co.za/archives/news-archives/seasonal-climate-watch.html">noted</a> that the winter crop growing regions of South Africa will receive rains.</p>
<p>A fourth positive factor is that the summer crops, which are nearing the harvest process, are in reasonably good condition. I generally expect an ample harvest in most summer crops, which is aligned with the view of the <a href="https://www.sagis.org.za/cec.html">Crop Estimates Committee</a>.</p>
<h2>Takeways</h2>
<p>From a consumer perspective, developments are broadly positive and bode well for some moderation in consumer food price inflation in the second half of the year, when the decline in commodity prices could begin to filter into the retail prices. </p>
<p>The one major risk is electricity stability. This is as much a risk for farmers as it is for consumers.</p>
<p>However, I am hopeful that the government’s interventions, such as the load curtailment and diesel rebate, to limit the damage of the electricity crisis to food production will help. </p>
<p>If the government’s proposed interventions help during irrigation periods – afternoons and evenings – South Africans can expect a favourable winter season. The reduction in power cuts will also be particularly beneficial for food processors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204243/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and a member of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC).</span></em></p>A third of South Africa’s farming income depends on irrigation. Disruptions in power supply put huge chunks of the country’s agricultural fortunes at risk.Wandile Sihlobo, Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032432023-04-06T02:10:43Z2023-04-06T02:10:43ZA mammoth meatball hints at a future of exotic lab-grown meats, but the reality will be far more boring, and rife with problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519699/original/file-20230405-26-qwccg2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=90%2C1599%2C4264%2C2412&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mike Corder / AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week, an Australian “cultured meat” company called <a href="https://www.forgedbyvow.com/">Vow</a> made headlines with a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/28/meatball-mammoth-created-cultivated-meat-firm">meatball</a> made from the flesh of a woolly mammoth – or something very much like it. Combining the technologies of lab-based cell culture and “<a href="https://colossal.com/mammoth/">de-extinction</a>,” Vow scientists grew muscle proteins based on DNA sequences from the long-dead proboscideans.</p>
<p>The meatball was not intended for human consumption, but Vow hoped the gimmick would highlight the lighter <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47283162">environmental footprint</a> of lab-grown meats, using the mammoth as a “a symbol of diversity loss and a symbol of climate change”. The meatball also hinted at a possible new variety and playfulness in meat consumption.</p>
<p>But is lab-grown meat really likely to put mammoths, dodos and other exotica on the menu? Taking into account the safety and economic hurdles the industry will have to clear, the result seems more likely to follow the pattern of genetically modified crops: less diversity, and unforeseen social and environmental effects.</p>
<h2>Healthy and safety risks</h2>
<p>As Queensland scientist Ernst Wolvetang, who helped to engineer the mammoth-ball, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/28/meatball-mammoth-created-cultivated-meat-firm">acknowledged</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We haven’t seen this protein for thousands of years, so we have no idea how our immune system would react when we eat it. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Wolvetang thinks any such problems could quickly be solved. But even for lab-grown meat that uses conventional livestock such as beef or chicken, the health and safety risks are far from understood. </p>
<p>Existing concerns include the use of <a href="https://ift.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12853">growth hormones</a> in cultured meat, the potential for <a href="https://www.aithm.jcu.edu.au/vetting-alternative-menus-for-food-allergy-sufferers/">new or unexpected allergens</a>, the way lines of cultured cells <a href="https://doi.org/10.2144/000112598">change their shape and function over time</a>, the <a href="https://ift.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12853">likelihood of microbial contamination</a>, and <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnut.2020.00007/full">uncertainty around the nutrient content</a>.</p>
<p>Even changing the texture or composition of meat may have health effects for our digestive system. These problems are likely to be exacerbated for foods based on resurrected proteins from the distant past.</p>
<h2>Consider the ‘meat-systems’</h2>
<p>But health and safety aren’t the only issues. </p>
<p>Critics of the de-extinction movement have argued that reintroducing animals like the woolly mammoth into the environment may have unpredictable and disruptive effects. </p>
<p>Would predators adapt? Would grasslands be trampled to oblivion? Should we devote our efforts to preserving still-live animals like rhinoceroses instead? Does the possibility of de-extinction make us <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/the_case_against_de-extinction_its_a_fascinating_but_dumb_idea">less worried</a> than we should be about the effect of humans’ actions on biodiversity?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519718/original/file-20230406-21-pmb011.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519718/original/file-20230406-21-pmb011.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519718/original/file-20230406-21-pmb011.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519718/original/file-20230406-21-pmb011.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519718/original/file-20230406-21-pmb011.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519718/original/file-20230406-21-pmb011.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519718/original/file-20230406-21-pmb011.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What would the economic system of lab-grown meat production look like?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We should also think in similarly broad terms about the impacts of lab-grown meats. In other words, we shouldn’t just think about meat itself, but about the “meat-systems” that produce it. </p>
<p>What will the economic system of lab-grown meat production look like? How will lab-grown meat disrupt farming and farming communities? How might it affect consumption? Will we eat more meat or less if we can gain access to “ethical” meat?</p>
<h2>The lesson of GMOs</h2>
<p>The development and rollout of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) over the past three decades can give us some important clues as to how such things may play out. Like lab-grown meats, GMOs at first promised the possibilities of diverse crops that would offer health benefits (like <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/17/golden-rice-genetically-modified-superfood-almost-saved-millions/">Golden Rice</a>) or benefits to the consumer (like the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flavr_Savr">Flavr Savr tomato</a>). </p>
<p>Few of these possibilities were realised. Instead, most of the benefits of GMOs accrued to agricultural companies who developed and sold the seeds. </p>
<p>Rather than increasing the diversity of foods, GMOs have increased monocultures and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-food-idUSTRE61F0RS20100216">reduced the variety of foods</a>. This, in turn, has led to negative environmental and social consequences for agricultural communities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-race-to-protect-the-food-of-the-future-why-seed-banks-alone-are-not-the-answer-173294">The race to protect the food of the future – why seed banks alone are not the answer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Lab-grown meats face a similar risk. Despite the promise of Vow’s mammoth, in the short-term at least, it is likely that lab-grown meats will only become economical for consumers when <a href="https://thecounter.org/lab-grown-cultivated-meat-cost-at-scale/">produced at scale</a>. </p>
<p>This suggests the most likely cultured meats on our menus won’t be alligator or dodo, but standardised versions of beef, chicken or pork. Production is also likely to focus on muscle tissue, rather than offal, feet, bone marrow, or the other diverse parts of animals many of us consume. </p>
<p>The most likely outcome of lab-grown meat is not more diversity in protein, but significantly less.</p>
<h2>The Italian response</h2>
<p>Just as the mammoth meatball was making its debut, the Italian government moved to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65110744">ban lab-grown meat</a>, citing health and the nation’s food heritage. Synthetic foods, government ministers argued, would undermine Italian food traditions, threatening mortadella, pancetta and guanciale. </p>
<p>Coldiretti, an Italian farmers’ association that supported the ban, added the move would protect agriculture from “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/29/italian-plan-to-ban-lab-grown-food-criticised-as-misguided">the attacks of multinational companies</a>”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ultra-processed-foods-are-trashing-our-health-and-the-planet-180115">Ultra-processed foods are trashing our health – and the planet</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Italy’s proposed ban has been branded “<a href="https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2023/04/03/anti-innovation-and-consumer-choice-italy-moves-to-ban-lab-grown-meat-cheese-and-fish">anti-innovation</a>” and a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-moves-ban-lab-grown-meat-drive-protect-home-products-2023-03-28/">setback for animal rights</a>, but they are right to be cautious about the disruption that lab-grown meat could cause. </p>
<p>The history of GMOs has also shown how turning food into a technology has not only made produce less diverse but also <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2080128">consolidated corporate control over the food supply</a>. Even if lab-grown meats are shown to be physiologically safe, we need to establish that they are economically, politically and culturally safe too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203243/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hallam Stevens has previously received funding from the National Heritage Board (Singapore), the Ministry of Education (Singapore) and the Research Grants Council (Hong Kong). </span></em></p>Lab-grown meat seems green, ethical and quirky – but at industrial scale, it’s likely to cause unforeseen problems.Hallam Stevens, Professor of Interdisciplinary Studies, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2020122023-03-22T09:01:24Z2023-03-22T09:01:24ZWhy the ethics of octopus farming are so troubling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516659/original/file-20230321-26-rt2aar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4601%2C3049&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-octopus-eye-vulgaris-cuvier-1797-1968735136">Osman Temizel/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Octopus is a popular ingredient in many cuisines, with some 420,000 metric tonnes of this mollusc being caught worldwide each year. The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165783620303374">rising global popularity</a> of octopus has been attributed to the increasingly adventurous tastes of younger consumers, its nutritional benefits and the decline of traditional fish stocks <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23308249.2019.1680603?role=tab&scroll=top&needAccess=true&journalCode=brfs21">such as cod</a>. This helps explain why the food processing corporation, Nueva Pescanova, aims to build the world’s first indoor octopus farm in Gran Canaria: a thousand-tank facility for producing <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64814781">3,000 tonnes of octopus</a> a year.</p>
<p>Octopuses can pile on <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00687-5">a staggering 5%</a> of their body weight in a day which makes them an appealing prospect for aquaculture, though they are notoriously difficult to breed in captivity. Nueva Pescanova claims to have made an important scientific breakthrough, however, which will allow them to raise successive generations of <em>Octopus vulgaris</em>, otherwise known as the Atlantic common octopus. The firm <a href="https://www.pescanovausa.com/sustainability/#from-the-sea-to-the-plate">argues</a> that farming octopus will reduce fishing methods such as sea-bed trawling, for example, and ensure a supply of “marine-based food” while also “relieving pressure on wild fishing grounds”. </p>
<p>But it is no simple matter for consumers to weigh up the costs and benefits of eating farmed fish and marine animals. It is tempting to believe that organised systems <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00288330.1992.9516500">reduce the risk of overfishing</a>, but it is also well established that fish farms and other forms of aquaculture pollute coastal waters with <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.666662/full">pharmaceuticals and faeces</a>. Added to this is the serious moral issue of confining sentient creatures to <a href="https://issues.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Jacquet-et-al.-The-Case-Against-Octopus-Farming-37-44-Winter-2019.pdf">industrial food systems</a>. </p>
<p>Researchers have suggested that, as particularly <a href="https://jov.arvojournals.org/article.aspx?articleid=2751123">intelligent</a> and playful creatures, octopuses are unsuited to a life in captivity and mass-production. Animal rights activists argue that farming octopuses will, based on this evidence, induce needless suffering on an <a href="https://secure.peta.org.uk/page/97239/action/1?locale=en-GB">unprecedented scale</a>. </p>
<h2>Sentient beings trapped on industrial farms</h2>
<p>Scientists at <a href="https://sites.dartmouth.edu/peter/octopus-research/">Dartmouth College</a> in the US have studied how octopuses experience reality in a specialist lab. Their research raises concerns about methods of slaughter proposed by Nueva Pescanova: placing octopuses into an ice slurry to reduce their temperature to the point of death. They question the appropriateness of this for a species that has sophisticated capacity for processing information, rudimentary tool use, complex visual pathways and, not least, the <a href="https://jov.arvojournals.org/article.aspx?articleid=2771639">capacity for pain</a>. </p>
<p>While land mammals are usually killed using gas chambers or electrical stunning, there have been similar criticisms in relation to large-brained and sentient species, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/44600/chapter-abstract/378042419?redirectedFrom=fulltext">including cows and pigs</a>. This is a contentious area that was debated in the UK parliament, resulting in formal recognition of the sentience of many species including crabs, lobsters and octopuses within the 2022 <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/lobsters-octopus-and-crabs-recognised-as-sentient-beings">Animal Welfare (Sentience) Act</a>. </p>
<p>Some research findings suggest that octopuses have an <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3802027">equivalent intelligence to cats</a> – a species few choose to consume and most treat as lovable companions. Why, then, do we eat octopus but not cats? One possibility is our difficulty in relating to octopuses: their personalities are hard to read and their water-dwelling bodies resemble miniature sea monsters with multiple tentacular limbs and bulging eyes. As with so many sea animals, the charisma of the octopus lies in its <a href="https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/sea-monsters-inspiration-serpents-mermaids-the-kraken.html">other-worldliness</a>, with centuries of myth and legends about these mysterious others in the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/44600/chapter-abstract/378042930?redirectedFrom=fulltext">songs and stories</a> of fishermen. </p>
<p>We don’t generally perceive molluscs as cute, and it is difficult to consider them companionable or friendly, despite the overwhelming scientific evidence of the richness of their <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3802027">behavioural repertoires</a>. Does this make octopus – and other aquatic creatures, like squid and crustaceans – easier to eat? I think so. It is something that researchers have called <a href="https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/44600/chapter-abstract/378042100?redirectedFrom=fulltext.">speciesism</a>: the thinking that, somewhat arbitrarily, justifies how some animals are perceived as pets or valued co-workers and others simply as <a href="https://brill.com/display/title/21952">food-in-waiting</a>. Our trouble in relating to these mysterious others may well be the ethical justification required to make eating them acceptable: something I have researched in the context of <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/13505076211044612">farmed mammals</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A wild octopus in profile." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516661/original/file-20230321-1911-lcafsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516661/original/file-20230321-1911-lcafsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516661/original/file-20230321-1911-lcafsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516661/original/file-20230321-1911-lcafsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516661/original/file-20230321-1911-lcafsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516661/original/file-20230321-1911-lcafsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516661/original/file-20230321-1911-lcafsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Octopuses seem so unlike humans, which has proved to be to their detriment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/octopus-water-274092959">Olga Visavi/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As with other food and farming debates, there are no simple solutions or compromises. The tensions between consumer demands and the market’s capacity to satisfy them rumble on. With so many sources of protein, it is not assured that anyone needs to eat octopus at all. Yet food is also bound up with cultural values, sociability and ideas of good taste. At least science can better inform us about the implications of what and how we eat. </p>
<p>Food production is one of the great moral challenges that humanity faces in the 21st century. While companies like Nueva Pescanova promise solutions to problems like overfishing, there will always be a price paid by the countless sentient beings ensnared in complicated industrial food systems.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lindsay Hamilton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Octopuses are enigmatic beings whose experiences of industrial farming are likely to be profound.Lindsay Hamilton, Professor of Animal Organization Studies, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1965382022-12-16T15:48:40Z2022-12-16T15:48:40ZPhosphorus supply is increasingly disrupted – we are sleepwalking into a global food crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501356/original/file-20221215-18-61v94h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5751%2C3819&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">oticki / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Without phosphorus food cannot be produced, since all plants and animals need it to grow. Put simply: if there is no phosphorus, there is no life. As such, phosphorus-based fertilisers – it is the “P” in “NPK” fertiliser – have become critical to the global food system. </p>
<p>Most phosphorus comes from non-renewable phosphate rock and it cannot be synthesised artificially. All farmers therefore need access to it, but 85% of the world’s remaining high-grade phosphate rock is concentrated in just five countries (some of which are “geopolitically complex”): Morocco, China, Egypt, Algeria and South Africa. </p>
<p>Seventy per cent is found in <a href="https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/agriculture-investing/phosphate-investing/top-phosphate-countries-by-production/">Morocco alone</a>. This makes the global food system extremely vulnerable to disruptions in the phosphorus supply that can lead to sudden price spikes. For example, in 2008 the price of phosphate fertilisers rocketed 800%.</p>
<p>At the same time, phosphorus use in food production is extremely inefficient, from mine to farm to fork. It runs off agricultural land into rivers and lakes, polluting water which in turn can kill fish and plants, and make water too toxic to drink. </p>
<p>In the UK alone, less than half of the 174,000 tonnes of imported phosphate are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479722005941?via%3Dihub">actually used productively to grow food</a>, with similar phosphorus efficiencies measured <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-019-01255-1">throughout the EU</a>. Consequently, the planetary boundaries (the Earth’s “safe space”) for the amount of phosphorus flow into water systems <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014009">have long been transgressed</a>.</p>
<p>Unless we fundamentally transform the way we use phosphorus, any supply disruption will cause a global food crisis since most countries are largely dependent on imported fertilisers. Using phosphorus in a smarter way, including using more recycled phosphorus, would also help already stressed rivers and lakes. </p>
<p>We are currently experiencing the third major phosphate fertiliser price spike in 50 years, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, China (the biggest exporter) imposing <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/china-fertilizers-quotas-idUSKBN2OQ0KY">export tariffs</a>, and Russia (one of top five producers) banning exports and then invading Ukraine. Since the start of the pandemic, fertiliser prices have risen steeply and at one point had quadrupled within two years. They are still at their <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/37223/CMO-April-2022-special-focus.pdf">highest levels since 2008</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501533/original/file-20221216-22499-bhmjst.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph of global phosphate prices since 1970" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501533/original/file-20221216-22499-bhmjst.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501533/original/file-20221216-22499-bhmjst.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501533/original/file-20221216-22499-bhmjst.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501533/original/file-20221216-22499-bhmjst.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501533/original/file-20221216-22499-bhmjst.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501533/original/file-20221216-22499-bhmjst.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501533/original/file-20221216-22499-bhmjst.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prices spiked in 2008 and again over the past year. DAP and TSP are two of the main fertilisers extracted from phosphate rock.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dana Cordell; data: World Bank</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Stop ignoring phosphorus</h2>
<p>Despite its critical importance, there is no comprehensive global framework for phosphorus governance. It is largely ignored in international policy discussions, and in countries where phosphorus regulation does exist, it is often dated and fails to address food security. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501542/original/file-20221216-11363-qlu8jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of phosphorus use" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501542/original/file-20221216-11363-qlu8jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501542/original/file-20221216-11363-qlu8jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501542/original/file-20221216-11363-qlu8jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501542/original/file-20221216-11363-qlu8jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501542/original/file-20221216-11363-qlu8jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501542/original/file-20221216-11363-qlu8jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501542/original/file-20221216-11363-qlu8jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">How phosphorus goes from mine to food.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">UK Phosphorus Transformation Strategy</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Policies have generally focused on removing phosphorus from wastewater to prevent water pollution or encouraging farmers to fertilise fields with phosphorus-rich animal manure or to use less phosphorus in the first place. These are fine, but they are piecemeal and ignore important inefficiencies at other stages in the food supply chain, for example in producing fertiliser, or in food processing or arising from our <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9271/meta">dietary choices</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/time-for-policy-action-on-global-phosphorus-security-5594">For more than a decade</a>, scientists have been warning that if no one takes responsibility for ensuring phosphorus security, further disruptions in its supply can have major consequences for the food system. Vulnerable farmers could be pushed to the brink and global crop yields severely reduced. We are essentially sleepwalking into a food crisis.</p>
<h2>The first comprehensive national strategy</h2>
<p>But there is still time to wake up. We have put together the first ever <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7404622">UK National Phosphorus Transformation Strategy</a> to help guide the country away from its current unsustainable situation. If the UK government and institutions were to adopt this strategy, we hope it could trigger a broader transformation elsewhere.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501531/original/file-20221216-32459-xer2tt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="boxes with words and images" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501531/original/file-20221216-32459-xer2tt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501531/original/file-20221216-32459-xer2tt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501531/original/file-20221216-32459-xer2tt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501531/original/file-20221216-32459-xer2tt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501531/original/file-20221216-32459-xer2tt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501531/original/file-20221216-32459-xer2tt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501531/original/file-20221216-32459-xer2tt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What the strategy hopes to achieve.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">UK Phosphorus Transformation Strategy</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Surprisingly, despite being almost entirely dependent on imported phosphorus in fertilisers and animal feed, our team’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479722005941?via%3Dihub">research</a> shows the UK theoretically has enough phosphorus already circulating in the food system: 90,000 tonnes per year of “legacy phosphorus” accumulate in agricultural soils, 26,000 tonnes per year leak into water bodies and 22,000 tonnes are sent to landfill and construction. These hotspots of phosphorus inefficiency and loss represent a critical resource, which could instead be used productively. </p>
<p>The strategy identifies six phosphorus priority pathways that can turn that around, ranging from the development of innovative technologies to financial incentives for industry and engaging communities in the changes needed. </p>
<p>This includes things like supporting the roll-out of “biodigesters” to process bulky animal manures and food wastes into concentrated and nutrient-rich fertilisers that can be more cost-effectively transported across the country to crop production areas. Or harmonising national policies to incentivise both phosphorus removal to prevent pollution, and stimulate the productive reuse of phosphorus-rich wastes for farmers. </p>
<p>The good news is that some of these actions are already underway at a small scale. If they are scaled up and others are introduced and become part of mainstream operations, then the UK’s phosphorus system can become more resilient. For that to happen, we need the commitment of all sectors involved and we need to address the issues in an integrated and collaborative way. </p>
<p>Importantly, the strategy has been developed after extensive consultation with farmers, regulators, policy-makers, food producers, wastewater companies and environmental managers. This should give us the confidence that change is possible.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RDhC1zeB350?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Phosphorus and the UK food system: a video made by Seed in collaboration with the authors.</span></figcaption>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Phosphorus Transformation Strategy was produced as part of the RePhoKUs project (The role of phosphorus in the sustainability and resilience of the UK food system) funded by BBSRC, ESRC, NERC, and the Scottish Government under the UK Global Food Security research programme (Grant No. BB/R005842/1). RePhoKUs project was led by Lancaster University with the University of Leeds, the University of Technology Sydney AFBI, UK CEH.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brent Jacobs receives funding from the UK Research Councils (BBSRC, ESRC, NERC), the Scottish Government, the European Union, and the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dana Cordell receives funding from the UK Research Councils (BBSRC, ESRC, NERC), the Scottish Government, the European Union, and the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>This crucial fertiliser component is mostly found in just five countries.Julia Martin-Ortega, Professor, Sustainability Research Insitute. Associate Director water@leeds, University of LeedsBrent Jacobs, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyDana Cordell, Associate Professor, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1933542022-10-28T13:36:49Z2022-10-28T13:36:49ZNigeria floods: 4 ways they affect food security<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492068/original/file-20221027-29153-onwv4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A flooded highway in Nigeria. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Food insecurity is a <a href="https://www.globalhungerindex.org/nigeria.html">serious, growing</a> problem in Nigeria. It was <a href="https://www.wfp.org/operations/annual-country-report?operation_id=NG01&year=2021#/22917">reported</a> that 7 out of 10 Nigerians did not have enough to eat in 2021. </p>
<p>This is worsened by <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15487733.2021.2004742">annual flooding</a>. Towards the end of September 2022, Nigeria began experiencing floods. So far, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/17/africa/nigeria-floods-deaths-intl-hnk/index.html">more than</a> 600 people have died and millions have been displaced. The magnitude and impact of these floods are set to surpass the <a href="https://fscluster.org/sites/default/files/documents/SITREP%20%20NIGERIA%20Floods%2002%20-%202012-11-15.pdf">events of 2012</a> – the most severe recorded flooding event in Nigeria’s history. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigeria-floods-expert-insights-into-why-theyre-so-devastating-and-what-to-do-about-them-192409">Nigeria floods: expert insights into why they're so devastating and what to do about them</a>
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<p>I’ve carried <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/11/2/59">out research</a> which provides insights into how these floods affect food security in Nigeria. The concept of food security encompasses the availability, access, utilisation, and stability of food – how much food is constantly available. </p>
<p>There is an urgent need to address food security issues in Nigeria, which is predicted to become the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-018-1101-4">world’s third most populous nation</a> by 2050. Despite the impact of flooding on food security, it is not recognised as a threat by policymakers, as evidenced by the <a href="https://fmard.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/National-Agricultural-Technology-and-Innovation-Policy-2022-2027-e-copy.pdf">national agricultural plans</a> which <a href="https://www.fao.org/faolex/results/details/es/c/lex-faoc165890/where">don’t even acknowledge</a> the role of disasters on food security. </p>
<p>The food security situation was dire before, and the ongoing flooding has <a href="https://dailytrust.com/food-prices-soar-as-floods-disrupt-supply-chains">made it worse</a>. Here I outline four ways flooding has had an impact on food security. These can show policymakers how to make the connection and do something about it.</p>
<h2>1. Food availability</h2>
<p>How much food is available depends on food production. Food production levels in Nigeria are already below demand. Nigeria <a href="https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-agriculture-sector">relies on US$10 billion of imports</a> to meet its food and agricultural production shortfalls (mostly wheat, rice, poultry and fish). This is even though agriculture is the <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/11/2/59/htm">second most important</a> economic activity after crude oil. </p>
<p>Flooding makes the situation worse. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20964129.2020.1791735">Flooding</a> degrades the environment and destroys crops, farm settlements, livestock, and seedling stores. This reduces harvest and affects the next planting season, <a href="https://theowp.org/reports/floods-and-food-shortages-threaten-to-push-nigeria-into-a-food-crisis/">culminating in a food shortage crisis</a>. </p>
<p>Livestock are killed or lose pastures and inundated farmlands are unsuitable for cultivation. Depending on the type of sediment deposited on farmlands during floods, some can’t be cultivated for a long time, creating a cycle of food <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/2/2/120/htm">scarcity and hunger</a>. </p>
<p>Aquaculture and fish farming <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Factors-relating-to-flooding-in-Nigerias-coastal-area_fig3_277960884">are not spared</a> either. For instance, floods <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/i4122e/i4122e.pdf">wash away</a> fish stock, leading to a loss of income for the farmers and a loss of valuable source of protein. </p>
<h2>2. Access to food</h2>
<p>Flooding has an impact on access to food in several ways; food becomes more scarce, hard to physically obtain and more expensive.</p>
<p>Smallholder farmers – who make up <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/04/06/scaling-the-impact-of-smallholder-farmers/">88%</a> of Nigerian farmers – cultivate, process, and eat directly from their farms. They are the worst affected by flooding disasters. As found in my <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/11/2/59/htm">research review</a>, they lose their primary source of income while lacking the resources to purchase food in the market. This also sets off a cycle in which high costs mean farmers can’t buy seeds or seedlings, affecting their ability to produce. </p>
<p>Flooding can cause massive damage to infrastructure, like the <a href="https://punchng.com/anambra-communities-lament-bridge-collapse-flood-drowns-six/">collapse of bridges</a> and roads in Nigeria, cutting off physical access. This has many knock-on effects. For instance, farmers can’t access needed inputs (like seeds or fertilisers) and markets for their goods. In addition, there are supply chain disruptions, increased prices, the destruction of farm produce and stored reserves.</p>
<h2>3. Food utilisation</h2>
<p>I believe that food utilisation is the most important aspect of food security. It is the <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/au035e/au035e.pdf">nutritional worth of food</a> and ability of the body to absorb the nutrients it needs from food. A varied and healthy diet is necessary for this. However, even availability and access do not guarantee adequate food utilisation if the necessary nutrition from food is lacking because there’s been <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32009699/">nutrient and soil loss</a> due to flooding. Degraded soil produces low quality and low nutrient food. Plant tissue damage can occur due to flooding, which promotes the development of bacterial and fungal diseases affecting crop quality. Micronutrient consumption is affected if the nutrient composition of foods is altered. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269796325_Post_Flooding_Effect_on_Soil_Quality_in_Nigeria_The_Asaba_Onitsha_Experience">Evidence of this</a> after flooding has been found in Nigeria’s agricultural farmlands.</p>
<p>In addition, the impact of flooding on the general flora and fauna reduces the availability of wild food and game, which are rich nutrient sources for <a href="https://www.academia.edu/10293517/Bush_meat_marketing_in_Nigeria_a_Case_Study_of_Benin_City_and_its_Environs">many people</a>. </p>
<h2>4. Food stability</h2>
<p>Lastly, floods affect food stability – ensuring that food is always available, accessible and nutritious.</p>
<p>A decline in agricultural productivity because of flooding affects the availability of food. Subsequent shortfalls in supply <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2022/10/20/price-of-domestic-rice-surges-as-floods-threaten-nigerias-food-security/">increase</a> prices of food, making it inaccessible to a large section of Nigeria’s population. This renders the already vulnerable population in the country more so. The high prices and unavailability of preferred food choices can force consumers to limit their consumption and opt for less nutritious but more filling food, which has an impact on food utilisation.</p>
<h2>What needs to be done</h2>
<p>No matter the gains in the policy focus area of food production, a single flooding event can reverse them. The Nigerian government must pay more attention to disasters such as flooding – <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20704-0">set to rise</a> in the coming years due to climate change – in food security policies, and take <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-in-nigeria-building-dams-and-planting-trees-among-steps-that-should-be-taken-to-curb-the-damage-192750">immediate actions</a> to control flooding. A more comprehensive approach to addressing food insecurity is needed and this must encompass flood prevention and mitigation.</p>
<p>Many food security programmes and policies currently focus on <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311932.2019.1707607">food availability</a> by seeking to increase production while neglecting other areas. This is also the approach in Nigeria, where production alone has formed the focus of food policies. The lack of consideration of the role of flooding in food insecurity is a significant oversight that needs to be addressed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adaku Jane Echendu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the impact of flooding on food security, it is not recognised as a threat by policymakers.Adaku Jane Echendu, Researcher, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1901482022-09-20T20:20:26Z2022-09-20T20:20:26ZHalf of Western Sydney foodbowl land may have been lost to development in just 10 years<p>More and more farming land is being lost to other land uses such as housing on the outskirts of our cities. But how much land is being lost? And why does it matter?</p>
<p>Our newly published <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837722002927">research</a> used the Western Sydney region as a case study of land lost since the 2011 census, and newly released Australian Bureau of Statistic (ABS) <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3/jul2021-jun2026/access-and-downloads/digital-boundary-files">data</a> allowed us to update our findings. While <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3/jul2021-jun2026/main-structure-and-greater-capital-city-statistical-areas/mesh-blocks">changes</a> in ABS land-use definitions make precise comparisons difficult, Western Sydney may have lost as much as 60% of its agricultural land over the past ten years. </p>
<p>The significance of these losses is that Western Sydney has long been seen as the foodbowl of Greater Sydney. It produces <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/agriculture/value-agricultural-commodities-produced-australia/latest-release">more than three-quarters</a> of the total value of agricultural produce in the metropolitan region. The city relies heavily on Western Sydney for livestock, vegetables, eggs, grapes and nuts. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-best-before-food-labelling-is-not-best-for-the-planet-or-your-budget-189686">Why 'best before' food labelling is not best for the planet or your budget</a>
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<p>We also interviewed people from different tiers of government working in Western Sydney. Our study highlights growing tensions between the New South Wales government and its attempts to manage population growth and housing pressures, and local councils and their efforts to protect food production on the city outskirts. The loss of productive land around our major cities is an increasingly urgent issue for our food security.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1529731936167395334"}"></div></p>
<h2>Food systems under pressure</h2>
<p>Like many cities, Sydney is being hit by many shocks and stresses – drought, bushfires, storms, floods and the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on supply chains. This rapid succession of shocks tests the resilience of local food security. Communities face soaring food prices as part of a broader surge in costs of living. </p>
<p>A lack of political will, short-term election cycles with shifting priorities, and low public awareness have meant the importance of retaining farming land close to the city isn’t well understood. Perishable foods grown close to urban markets not only reduce transport and energy costs, and emissions, but also <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/318103">improve a city’s food security</a>.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weve-had-a-taste-of-disrupted-food-supplies-here-are-5-ways-we-can-avoid-a-repeat-135822">We've had a taste of disrupted food supplies – here are 5 ways we can avoid a repeat</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our study quantifies the loss of land categorised as agricultural or primary production in Western Sydney over time. Based on ABS data for land use by <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3/jul2021-jun2026/access-and-downloads/digital-boundary-files">mesh blocks</a> (the smallest geographic areas defined by the ABS), we estimate Western Sydney lost 9% of its primary production land from 2016 to 2021. The worst-affected council areas over this period, The Hills Shire, Blacktown, Camden and Campbelltown, lost 43%, 39%, 26% and 19% respectively.</p>
<p>Changes in <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3/jul2021-jun2026/main-structure-and-greater-capital-city-statistical-areas/mesh-blocks">ABS mesh block land-use definitions</a> (from “agriculture” in 2011 to “primary production” in 2016 and 2021), as well as <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Australian+Standard+Geographical+Classification+(ASGC)">changes to mapping standards</a>, make it difficult to accurately calculate the loss of land between 2011 and 2021. However, if these land-use categories in 2011, 2016 and 2021 are assumed to be broadly comparable, we can estimate that Western Sydney lost roughly 60% of its farming land over the past ten years. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Note: estimates of losses assume the land-use categories of ‘agricultural’ in 2011 and ‘primary production’ in 2016 and 2021 are comparable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-sprawl-is-threatening-sydneys-foodbowl-55156">Urban sprawl is threatening Sydney's foodbowl</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The pressures of growth</h2>
<p>The NSW government has historically looked to Western Sydney to accommodate Greater Sydney’s growing population. </p>
<p>The population in Western Sydney is <a href="https://pp.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/populations">estimated to increase</a> from 2.4 million residents in 2016 to 4.1 million in 2041. The Department of Planning and Environment’s latest <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Sydney-housing-supply-forecast">housing supply forecast</a> predicts the region will supply roughly 60% of Greater Sydney’s new dwellings in the period 2021-2025.</p>
<p>Attempts have been made to <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/-/media/Files/DPE/Reports/sydney-growth-centres-strategic-assessment-program-report-2010-11.pdf">concentrate new development</a> in two designated growth areas – the <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Plans-for-your-area/Priority-Growth-Areas-and-Precincts/North-West-Growth-Area">North-West</a> and <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Plans-for-your-area/Priority-Growth-Areas-and-Precincts/South-West-Growth-Area">South-West</a> – from 2006 onwards. These locations used to contain swathes of undeveloped <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Metropolitan-Housing-Monitors/Sydney-Greenfield-Monitor">greenfield land</a>. But local council policies to retain productive farmland have been put aside to accommodate state government growth plans. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing location of Greater Sydney's North West and South West growth centres" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Greater Sydney’s designated growth areas are to the north-west and south-west of the city.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837722002927#bib18">Lawton & Morrison 2022, Land Use Policy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Greater Sydney Commission (now the <a href="https://www.greatercities.au/metropolis-of-three-cities">Greater Cities Commission</a>) introduced the concept of <a href="https://gsc-public-1.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Values_of_the_Metropolitan_Rural_Area_of_the_Greater_Sydney_Region_(Ag_Econ_Plus).pdf">Metropolitan Rural Areas</a> (MRAs) to help preserve the remaining peri-urban rural land. The MRA is defined as the land uses outside the established and planned urban areas of Greater Sydney. It broadly comprises rural towns and villages, farmland, floodplains, defence land, national parks and wilderness areas. </p>
<p>Satellite imagery from our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837722002927">research</a>
reveals a slow but steady housing sprawl into surrounding rural land. Is the MRA concept too late to stem urban encroachment?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-protect-fresh-food-supplies-here-are-the-key-steps-to-secure-city-foodbowls-114085">To protect fresh food supplies, here are the key steps to secure city foodbowls</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why are farmers selling up?</h2>
<p>Why is farming land disappearing? Part of the answer lies in the cost-price squeezes farmers face. Costs of farming inputs have risen, while farmgate prices have fallen because of pressure from major retailers and competition. </p>
<p>As the cost of land and farming costs increase, low returns mean many farmers consider selling up to capitalise on land speculation. We estimate price differences between rural and residential land plots of up to 200% in Western Sydney (using the NSW Valuer General <a href="https://www.valuergeneral.nsw.gov.au/land_values/where_can_you_learn_more_about_your_land_value/land_values_online">online tools</a>). </p>
<p>The potential value uplift is a big incentive for farmers to approach the council and seek land rezoning to convert their rural holdings to more profitable land uses, such as housing and other urban uses. It makes financial sense. Who can blame them?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cities-in-the-21st-century-why-urban-fringe-farming-is-vital-for-food-resilience-106162">Feeding cities in the 21st century: why urban-fringe farming is vital for food resilience</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Local food production has been undervalued</h2>
<p>Our study suggests some questioning of a pro-urban growth agenda has begun. There is growing recognition of the importance of preserving agricultural and rural land on the outskirts of our major cities to help us withstand and recover from crises. </p>
<p>We are seeing shortages of essential items, supply-chain disruptions and rises in the prices of foods affected by climate-related events. These developments highlight the need to reduce dependence on distant food supplies. </p>
<p>Australian cities must find ways to maximise the sustainable use of available natural resources for more localised food production. We should also consider more carefully the role that farming land plays in other land-use functions, including flood mitigation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-causing-sydneys-monster-flood-crisis-and-3-ways-to-stop-it-from-happening-again-186285">What's causing Sydney's monster flood crisis – and 3 ways to stop it from happening again</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p><em>Amy Lawton, consultant in the advisory team at the Institute for Public Policy and Governance at UTS, was a co-author of this article, and of the journal publication while at WESTIR Ltd.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Lawton, consultant in the advisory team at the Institute for Public Policy and Governance at UTS, was a co-author of this article, and of the journal publication while at WESTIR Ltd. Nicky Morrison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Awais Piracha does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Growing fresh produce on the outskirts of a city reduces food miles and increases food security. But the foodbowls next to our our big cities are fast losing their land to urban growth.Nicky Morrison, Professor of Planning and Director of Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney UniversityAwais Piracha, Associate Professor of Urban Planning, Director Academic Programs, Geography Tourism and Urban Planning, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1900422022-09-12T16:41:25Z2022-09-12T16:41:25ZEating insects can be good for the planet – Europeans should eat more of them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483233/original/file-20220907-12-8zpp52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Farmed insects are common in many parts of the world today.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/farmed-crickets-food-asian-1962297640">nippich somsaard/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Insects are a nutritious food source that can be produced more sustainably than conventional livestock. While eating insects is common in many world regions, in western cultures it is more likely met with disgust. </p>
<p>The consumption of insects has slowly increased as the benefits become <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210420-the-protein-rich-superfood-most-%20europeans-wont-eat">widely discussed</a>. More than 2,000 edible species have been identified. But would incorporating insects into our diets really reduce the environmental footprint of food production, and can this be achieved?</p>
<p>Insects are high in fat, protein and nutrients. This varies between species and lifecycle stage, however the protein content of insects is frequently <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/mnfr.201200735">40%-60%</a>. Insects also provide all of the essential amino acids required for human nutrition. </p>
<p>Adult crickets are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/mnfr.201200735">65%</a> protein by weight, which is higher than both beef (<a href="https://fdc.nal.usda.gov/fdc-app.html#/food-details/746760/nutrients">23%</a>) and tofu (<a href="https://fdc.nal.usda.gov/fdc-app.html#/food-details/172476/nutrients">8%</a>). Insects are also high in minerals such as copper, iron and magnesium. It is therefore of no surprise that insects are consumed by humans in <a href="https://theconversation.com/eating-insects-has-long-made-sense-in-africa-the-world-must-catch-up-70419">many world regions</a> today.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sale of a portion of insects at a market stall in front of multiple trays of edible insects." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483040/original/file-20220906-12-38msdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483040/original/file-20220906-12-38msdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483040/original/file-20220906-12-38msdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483040/original/file-20220906-12-38msdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483040/original/file-20220906-12-38msdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483040/original/file-20220906-12-38msdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483040/original/file-20220906-12-38msdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Edible insects sold at a market in Thailand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/focus-on-fried-insect-streetfood-unidentify-1571142052">Tanawat Chantradilokrat/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Insects are far more efficient at converting their feed into energy than conventional livestock. Adult crickets and mealworm larvae need <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2017.04.001">5–10 times</a> less feed than cattle to produce the same weight gain. Insects are also cold-blooded, so do not use their metabolism to heat or cool themselves, further reducing energy and food use. </p>
<p>A larger proportion of the animal can also be eaten compared with conventional livestock. Only <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/i3461e/i3461e.pdf">45%</a> of the cattle and <a href="https://www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/5b311af3-e5c4-5fc3-95d2-7200bf77061e/">55%</a> of a chicken is consumed on average. For insects, the whole larva and <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/i3253e/i3253e.pdf">80%</a> of an adult cricket can be eaten. Insects also reproduce more rapidly than vertebrates, with many generations possible in a year.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483231/original/file-20220907-14-n40bjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A swarm of insects being farmed in a large enclosure." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483231/original/file-20220907-14-n40bjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483231/original/file-20220907-14-n40bjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483231/original/file-20220907-14-n40bjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483231/original/file-20220907-14-n40bjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483231/original/file-20220907-14-n40bjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483231/original/file-20220907-14-n40bjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483231/original/file-20220907-14-n40bjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Insect cultivation requires a fraction of the land, energy and water that conventional livestock farming demands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/edible-locusts-cultivated-asia-2033120873">outwalk/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To provide the same nutritional value, insect cultivation therefore uses a fraction of the land, energy and water used for conventional livestock farming. </p>
<p>To produce a kilogram of protein, mealworm larvae emit <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0051145">14kg of CO₂eq</a>, far less than the <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaq0216">500kg of CO₂eq</a> emitted on average in beef production. To produce the same amount of protein, mealworm larvae cultivation uses <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417300056?via%3Dihub">70 times less agricultural land</a> than beef.</p>
<h2>Plant-based foods should not be ignored</h2>
<p>All food production has environmental costs. However, there is substantial variation within this. Beef, for example, produces <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaq0216">100 times</a> more greenhouse gas emissions than pea production. </p>
<p>Insect cultivation typically falls between these extremes. While it can be less environmentally damaging than the production of meat, it has a higher footprint than most plant-based foods. Per kilogram of protein, pea production emits only <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaq0216">4kg of CO₂eq</a>, while tofu requires roughly <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417300056?via%3Dihub">half the agricultural land</a> needed for insect cultivation. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483244/original/file-20220907-12-kzuqe7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Peas being processed in a large tray." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483244/original/file-20220907-12-kzuqe7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483244/original/file-20220907-12-kzuqe7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483244/original/file-20220907-12-kzuqe7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483244/original/file-20220907-12-kzuqe7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483244/original/file-20220907-12-kzuqe7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483244/original/file-20220907-12-kzuqe7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483244/original/file-20220907-12-kzuqe7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The environmental footprint of plant-based foods is often lower than for edible insect cultivation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/working-process-production-green-peas-on-565877839">Max Maier/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whether insects are a climate-friendly (or -friendlier) food will depend on what the insect protein replaces. If insect-based foods are used to substitute conventional meat, this could provide important gains. However, large gains could also be achieved if plant-based alternatives are adopted.</p>
<p>Dietary changes can radically alter the environmental footprint of consumers. The average diet in the US uses <a href="https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/human-appropriation-of-land-for-food-the-role-of-diet">more than 10 times</a> more land per person than the average Indian diet, primarily due to the types of food consumed. </p>
<h2>Using insects in a circular food system</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.fao.org/3/i2697e/i2697e.pdf">1.3 billion tonnes</a> of food produced for human consumption is wasted each year. Another area in which insects could prove valuable is in the production of food or animal feed from <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2311-5637/5/3/81">food by-products or food waste</a>. Black soldier flies reared on by-products such as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0047-7">almond hulls</a> can be converted into feed for livestock or farmed seafood. </p>
<p>However, feeding insects <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13165-020-00290-7">organic by-products</a> requires careful management to avoid risks of chemical and microbial contamination. Several insect species are able to <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/8/8/288">digest certain contaminants</a>, but there is potential for harmful bioaccumulation. Manure and catering waste are therefore <a href="https://ipiff.org/insects-eu-legislation/">prohibited</a> as a feed for farmed insects in Europe.</p>
<h2>Will Europeans eat more insects?</h2>
<p>The market for edible insects in Europe and America is growing. Despite only <a href="https://www.beuc.eu/sites/default/files/publications/beuc-x-2020-042_consumers_and_the_transition_to_sustainable_food.pdf">10.3% of Europeans</a> stating they would be willing to replace meat with insects, the edible insect market is projected to reach <a href="https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5233747/edible-insects-market-by-product-whole-insect">US$4.63bn (£3.36bn) by 2027</a>. </p>
<p>The acceptability of foods can change over time. Tomatoes were regarded as poisonous in Britain and dismissed for over 200 years. Lobsters, now an expensive delicacy, were formerly so abundant in the US that they were served to workers and prisoners and were commonly used as fertiliser and fish bait. </p>
<p>Lobster only became fashionable to eat after the mid-18th century. Since then its popularity has surged, with the global lobster market expected to reach <a href="https://www.imarcgroup.com/lobster-market#:%7E:text=The%20global%20lobster%20market%20reached,9.94%25%20during%202022%2D2027.">US$11.1bn</a> (£9.7bn) by 2027.</p>
<p>Insect consumption in Europe may also become normalised. Western consumers are showing an increasing willingness to consume <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950329315001044">processed insect-based foods</a>. Incorporating insects into familiar food items such as flour represents one way of improving their acceptance.</p>
<p>Edible insects are not the sole solution to achieve a more sustainable food system. However, they do provide a nutritious and more sustainable substitute to conventional meat. Their production, flexibility and diversity means they are likely to play an increasing part in a more circular food system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190042/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Alexander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Eating insects can carry a much lower environmental footprint than conventional meat. Should western cultures be incorporating more of them into their diets?Peter Alexander, Senior lecturer in Global Food Security, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1807972022-07-10T07:20:35Z2022-07-10T07:20:35ZMorocco - a top fertiliser producer - could hold a key to the world’s food supply<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457076/original/file-20220408-25087-8s385g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Workers fill bags with fertiliser in Morocco's northern city of Meknes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Morocco has a large fertiliser industry with huge production capacity and international reach. It is one of the world’s <a href="https://www.worldstopexports.com/top-fertilizers-exports-by-country/">top four</a> fertiliser exporters following Russia, China and Canada.</p>
<p>Fertilisers tend to divide into three main categories; nitrogen fertilisers, phosphorus fertilisers, potassium fertilisers. In 2020 the fertiliser market size <a href="https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/fertilizer-market">was about</a> US$190 billion.</p>
<p>Morocco has distinct advantage in the production of phosphorus fertilisers. It possesses <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/681747/phosphate-rock-reserves-by-country/">over</a> 70% of the world’s phosphate rock reserves, from which the phosphorus used in fertilisers is derived. And this makes Morocco a gatekeeper of global food supply chains because all food crops require the element phosphorus to grow. Indeed, so does all plant life. Unlike other finite resources, such as fossil fuels, there is no alternative to phosphorus.</p>
<p>In 2021, the global phosphorus fertiliser market amounted to <a href="https://brandessenceresearch.com/chemical-and-materials/phosphate-fertilizers-market-size">about</a> US$59 billion. In Morocco, the sector’s 2020 revenues amounted to <a href="https://ocpsiteprodsa.blob.core.windows.net/media/2021-08/OCP-Sustainability_report_2020-GRI_certified.pdf">US$5.94 billion</a>. Office Chérifien des Phosphates, the producer owned by the Moroccan state, accounted for <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-ocp-to-stable-affirms-at-bb-28-10-2020">about 20%</a> of the kingdom’s export revenues. It is also the country’s largest employer, providing jobs for <a href="https://ocpsiteprodsa.blob.core.windows.net/media/2021-08/OCP-Sustainability_report_2020-GRI_certified.pdf">21,000 people</a>. </p>
<p>Morocco plans to produce an additional 8.2 million tonnes of phosphorus fertiliser by 2026. <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/morocco-counters-russias-weaponization-food-energy-nexus">Currently production</a> is at about 12 million tonnes. </p>
<p>The state company recently <a href="https://medias24.com/2022/06/05/engrais-une-double-opportunite-pour-le-maroc/">announced</a> that it would increase its fertiliser production for the year by 10%. This would put an additional 1.2 million tonnes on the global market by the end of the year. This will significantly help markets.</p>
<p>But, as I argue in a <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/moroccos-new-challenges-gatekeeper-worlds-food-supply-geopolitics-economics-and">new report</a>, Morocco faces new challenges. Its production of fertiliser is threatened by increasingly daunting environmental and economic challenges. They include the COVID pandemic and the severe supply chain disruptions that have followed.</p>
<p>The timing to address these is crucial. </p>
<p>Russia is currently the world’s <a href="https://www.worldstopexports.com/top-fertilizers-exports-by-country/">largest</a> fertiliser exporter – 15.1% of total exported fertilisers. And fertiliser represents one of the greatest vulnerabilities for both Europe and Africa. For instance, the EU27 (all of the 27 member state of the European Union) as a whole depends on Russia for <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/ni972en/ni972en.pdf">30%</a> of its fertiliser supply. Russia’s advantageous position is amplified by its status as the world’s second-largest natural gas producer. Gas is a main component of all phosphorus fertilisers as well as nitrogen fertilisers.</p>
<p>Because of this, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has serious implications for global food security. Both in terms of supply, and also because fertiliser can be used a economic weapon or tool.</p>
<p>Morocco could therefore become central to the global fertiliser market and a gatekeeper of the world’s food supply that could offset the attempt to use fertiliser as a weapon.</p>
<h2>The journey</h2>
<p>Morocco started to mine phosphorous in 1921. During the 1980s and 1990s it began to produce its own fertiliser. <a href="https://www.ocpgroup.ma/">Office Chérifien des Phosphates</a> built the world’s largest fertiliser production hub in Jorf Lasfar on Morocco’s Atlantic coast. </p>
<p>Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the company had over 350 clients on five continents. <a href="https://ocpsiteprodsa.blob.core.windows.net/media/2021-08/OCP-Sustainability_report_2020-GRI_certified.pdf">About</a> 54% of phosphate fertilisers bought in Africa come from Morocco. Moroccan fertilisers also account for major domestic market shares in India (50%), Brazil (40%) and Europe (41%). India and Brazil <a href="https://atlanticoonline.com/en/ocp-wants-to-expand-brazilian-operation-in-the-next-two-years/">have reached out</a> to Morocco to fill additional supply gaps.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471565/original/file-20220629-16-346qsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471565/original/file-20220629-16-346qsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471565/original/file-20220629-16-346qsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471565/original/file-20220629-16-346qsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471565/original/file-20220629-16-346qsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471565/original/file-20220629-16-346qsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471565/original/file-20220629-16-346qsh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Image from the OCP’s 2020 sustainability report.</span>
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</figure>
<p>Morocco’s economy has reaped the benefits of the transformation into an international fertiliser exporting giant. And in sub-Saharan Africa in particular, the combination of joint venture partnerships in local fertiliser production and <a href="https://ocpsiteprodsa.blob.core.windows.net/media/2020-10/Rapport%202020_EN_.pdf">direct outreach</a> to farmers has resulted in a <a href="https://ocpsiteprodsa.blob.core.windows.net/media/2020-10/Rapport%202020_EN_.pdf">remarkable boost</a> to African agricultural yields. </p>
<p>It’s also expanded Morocco’s soft power influence across the continent. For instance, Morocco <a href="https://www.worldfertilizer.com/project-news/15112019/ocp-group-expects-ammonia-plant-in-nigeria-to-begin-production-in-late-2023/">supplies over 90%</a> of Nigeria’s annual fertiliser demand. </p>
<p>But, how well Morocco manages challenges to the industry will affect both its own economic development and the stability of food supplies across the world. </p>
<h2>The challenges</h2>
<p><strong>Water and energy constraints</strong></p>
<p>Phosphate extraction and fertiliser production uses a lot of energy and water. Morocco’s phosphate and fertiliser industry <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/413/mining-a-big-green-mining-machine/">consumes</a> about 7% of its annual energy output and 1% of its water. </p>
<p>But Morocco is among the countries <a href="https://www.unido.org/stories/responding-moroccos-water-challenge">suffering the most</a> from water scarcity. This is <a href="https://cedar.wwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1358&context=wwu_honors">due to</a> a dry climate, high water demand, climate change and reservoir contamination and siltation.</p>
<p>Morocco is trying to address this through a <a href="https://www.maroc.ma/en/news/head-government-2020-2050-national-water-plan-roadmap-face-challenges-next-30-years">National Water Plan 2020-2050</a>. It envisages building new dams and desalination plants and expanding irrigation networks, among other measures, to sustain agriculture and ecosystems. It’s <a href="https://www.maroc.ma/en/news/head-government-2020-2050-national-water-plan-roadmap-face-challenges-next-30-years">estimated to cost</a> about US$40 billion.</p>
<p><strong>Natural gas costs</strong></p>
<p>Nitrogen is the other basic fertiliser element that plants need. Diammonium phosphate, the most popular type of phosphorus fertiliser worldwide (and which Morocco makes along with monoammonium), is <a href="https://www.ocpgroup.ma/standard-fertilizers">composed of</a> 46% phosphorus and 18% nitrogen. Natural gas accounts for <a href="https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/20163-high-fertilizer-prices-tight-supplies-may-adversely-affect-2022-acreage">at least 80%</a> of the variable cost of nitrogen fertiliser. </p>
<p>This means the price of natural gas massively affects production costs. But Morocco has scant natural gas resources. And natural gas prices have been soaring. </p>
<p>How well Morocco manages the food-water-energy nexus will affect both its own economic development and the stability of food supplies across the world. </p>
<h2>Some answers</h2>
<p>The key is to expand its renewable energy sector. Morocco holds <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20211115-how-morocco-led-the-world-on-clean-solar-energy">considerable</a> solar and wind resources. Fertiliser manufacturing could become powered by renewable energy, and renewable energy could be used within the fertiliser itself. </p>
<p>In 2020, the state’s fertiliser company covered <a href="https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/06/349881/ocp-group-green-hydrogen-ammonia-is-the-future-of-energy">89%</a> of its energy needs by co-generation (producing two or more forms of energy from a single fuel source) and renewable energy sources. Its aim is to eventually cover 100% of its energy needs in this way. </p>
<p>Renewable energy could also be used within the fertiliser itself. Instead of importing ammonia derived from natural gas, Morocco could produce its own using hydrogen produced from its domestic renewable energy resources.</p>
<p>According to the state company, <a href="https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2021/12/345902/ocp-reaffirms-commitment-to-investing-in-non-conventional-water-resources">31%</a> of its water needs are met with “unconventional” water resources, including treated wastewater and desalinated seawater. </p>
<p>Morocco’s growing reliance on desalination plants to satisfy industrial, agricultural and residential needs will require sizeable new investments in power generation from renewable energy sources. Desalination plants require <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frsc.2020.00009/full">10 times the amount of energy</a> to produce the same volume of water as conventional surface water treatment. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/where-to-find-more-water-eight-unconventional-resources-to-tap-183681">Where to find more water: eight unconventional resources to tap</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To sustain operations and expand green ammonia production, Morocco will have to strike a careful balance between its fertiliser exports, its drive to expand its high-value agricultural exports and the provision of drinking water to its population.</p>
<p>Using its large solar energy resources to power green hydrogen and green ammonia production, along with desalination, Morocco could escape the vicious cycle of the upward spiralling of prices in the food-energy-water nexus.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180797/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michaël Tanchum is an associate senior fellow in the Africa Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations</span></em></p>How well Morocco manages challenges to its fertiliser industry will affect its own development and the stability of food supplies across the world.Michaël Tanchum, Senior Fellow at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Studies (AIES), non-resident fellow in the Economics and Energy Program at the Middle East Institute (MEI) and Professor, Universidad de NavarraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1853262022-06-23T14:47:05Z2022-06-23T14:47:05ZRising prices: why the global drive to keep food cheap is unsustainable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470589/original/file-20220623-52373-zzygnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=100%2C75%2C5489%2C3648&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/health-super-food-boost-immune-system-423108550">Shutterstock/marilyn barbone</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-how-experts-pick-goods-to-track-price-changes-and-what-it-says-about-uk-consumers-184940">prices rise</a>, everywhere, for pretty much everything, the prospect of the human suffering this will cause is deeply worrying. There are <a href="https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000138289/download/">predictions</a> that the number of people in the world experiencing acute hunger – currently 276 million – could soon rise by as many as 47 million. </p>
<p>To address the problem, one thing that <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/do-no-harm-measured-policy-responses-are-key-addressing-food-security-impacts-ukraine-crisis">many agree on</a> is keeping trade barriers low. This means not <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/countries-banning-food-exports-amid-rising-prices-inflation.html#:%7E:text=List%20of%20countries%20with%20bans%20on%20food%20exports,Dec%2031%2C%202022%20%2012%20more%20rows%20">banning exports</a>, where individual countries hang on to their supplies, and making sure sanctions don’t affect vital food supplies. The fear is that any barriers to global flows of food will simply push prices up even more.</p>
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<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>This focus on keeping prices low is understandable and necessary. But it is also worrying, because the economic mechanisms which have driven down prices in recent decades have severely weakened the global food system. </p>
<p>This was brought home to me on a recent visit to Kenya. Eating fish one evening on the banks of Lake Victoria, one of the world’s largest inland fisheries, I asked my Kenyan colleagues where my tilapia would have come from. The surprising answer was that it was quite possibly from China. </p>
<p>But under the cheap food paradigm, this makes sense. China has done a phenomenal job of growing its aquaculture industry (it now commands <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-021-01503-3">around 60%</a> of the global market) while also investing in <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/03611981211031228?journalCode=trra">African transport infrastructure</a>. </p>
<p>Extremely efficient production and distribution have lowered costs, enabling local vendors in Kenya to earn a living selling imported tilapia at prices their customers can afford. </p>
<p>It’s this kind of dynamic that the globalisation of food has allowed. But when globalised trade is disrupted, the whole system is threatened. </p>
<p>Until recently, for example, Ukraine <a href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osginf2022d1_en.pdf">supplied 36%</a> of the world’s sunflower oil. The Russian invasion has <a href="https://news.un.org/pages/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/GCRG_2nd-Brief_Jun8_2022_FINAL.pdf?utm_source=United+Nations&utm_medium=Brief&utm_campaign=Global+Crisis+Response">massively reduced trade</a> from Ukraine, making this staple ingredient considerably more expensive for the millions of households and companies around the world that use it. </p>
<p>Many African countries depend on Ukraine and Russia for more than <a href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osginf2022d1_en.pdf">half of their wheat</a>. Supply shortages created by the war, along with catastrophically high fertiliser prices, are threatening to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/15/ukraine-war-russia-grain-food-crisis-world-hunger/">increase hunger</a> in the region. </p>
<p>This is the flip side of global efforts to keep food prices low. On the one hand, increased productivity and competitiveness have enabled food to be produced more cheaply and distributed to the people who need it. But the relentless drive to increase efficiency and gain competitive advantage has created risks for the resilience of the food system. </p>
<p>It has meant that a smaller number of countries and companies now dominate, detracting from the diversity in food sources and supply chains which is needed to build strength and reliability. As a <a href="https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cb4476en">UN report</a> into food insecurity states, diversity matters because it “creates multiple pathways for absorbing shocks”. Those shocks can be catastrophic.</p>
<p>It’s little wonder then that many countries <a href="https://morningexpress.in/lebanon-egypt-and-libya-are-discussing-the-problem-of-grain-shortages-due-to-the-war-in-ukraine/">are re-evaluating</a> their dependency on imported food to feed their people. </p>
<h2>Protecting the planet</h2>
<p>The single-minded focus on keeping food prices low also distracts from other issues, such as the environment and supporting sustainable livelihoods. </p>
<p>As the UN secretary general, António Guterres, <a href="https://www.un.org/en/food-systems-summit/news/making-food-systems-work-people-planet-and-prosperity">has pointed out</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Food systems hold the power to realise our shared vision for a better world [by] feeding growing populations in ways that contribute to people’s nutrition, health and wellbeing, restore and protect nature, are climate neutral, adapted to local circumstances, and provide decent jobs and inclusive economies.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is unlikely that the fish I ate in Kisumu was produced in a way that took many of these concerns into account. But the cheapness of food incurs large costs elsewhere – for people’s health, their livelihoods and for the whole planet. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two tilapia fish on a plate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470577/original/file-20220623-51616-9960r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470577/original/file-20220623-51616-9960r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470577/original/file-20220623-51616-9960r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470577/original/file-20220623-51616-9960r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470577/original/file-20220623-51616-9960r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470577/original/file-20220623-51616-9960r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470577/original/file-20220623-51616-9960r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Made in China?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/two-raw-nile-tilapia-fish-on-562114426">Shutterstock/TonKhnthai</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These “hidden costs” <a href="https://sc-fss2021.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/UNFSS_true_cost_of_food.pdf">have been estimated</a> at almost US$20 trillion (£16.3 trillion) per year. Put simply, the prices we pay for food today do not reflect the true cost of producing it – and such a system is unsustainable. </p>
<p>There is no question that food must be allowed to flow across borders in large enough quantities to prevent hunger. But there is also no doubt that future generations will need to be able to rely on a more sustainable global food system – one that incorporates prices, diets, environment, livelihoods and resilience. </p>
<p>It is incumbent on any battle against hunger to consider not just how to keep food cheap in the short term, but to ensure over the longer term that food systems are redesigned so they are stronger and more sustainable. This would involve substantial changes, but there are already signs of shifts in the workings of the global economy. </p>
<p>One prominent investor <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/business/dealbook/globalization-fink-marks.html">recently commented</a> that the Russian <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-recap-european-leaders-gather-to-urge-peace-185249">invasion of Ukraine</a> has “put an end to globalisation as we know we it,” predicting a process of “deglobalisation” and companies re-calibrating their global supply chains. </p>
<p>This presents an opportunity to use the <a href="https://r4d.org/wp-content/uploads/R4D-CITY-Evidence-Review.pdf">latest research</a> to work out which economic models are needed to transform the planet’s food systems. This should involve <a href="https://futureoffood.org/insights/true-value-revealing-the-positive-impacts-of-food-systems-transformation/">“true cost” accounting</a>, which properly reflects the various costs and benefits of producing, transporting and selling what we eat. </p>
<p>There is also room for significant steps to be taken towards a food system which incorporates the <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/6/3453">circular economy</a> (with more emphasis on sharing, reusing and recycling) and the “bioeconomy” model, with its focus on <a href="https://www.fao.org/science-technology-and-innovation/resources/stories/leapfrogging-to-sustainability-of-agrifood-systems-by-investing-in-bioeconomy-innovations/en">conserving biological resources</a>.</p>
<p>Politicians, businesses and consumers need to accept that low food prices are part of a bigger problem. Focusing solely on keeping food as cheap as possible, and an unrelenting drive for productivity and profit, is not the way to keep the world well nourished. </p>
<p>Things need to change. And the fact that now is the hardest time to confront this problem is precisely why we should.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185326/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corinna Hawkes receives funding from UK National Institutes for Health Research, the Wellcome Trust, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. She is Chair of the Board of Trustees for Bite Back 2030.. </span></em></p>The global food system lacks resilience because it is too focused on keeping down costs.Corinna Hawkes, Professor of Food Policy, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1824752022-06-09T03:46:03Z2022-06-09T03:46:03ZFennel looking a bit feeble? Growing enough veggies to feed yourself depends on these 3 things<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467886/original/file-20220609-16-j0gexh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C9%2C3221%2C2536&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Farming inside city boundaries is <a href="https://www.fao.org/urban-agriculture/en/">on the rise</a> as countries become more urbanised and people seek to connect with the source of their food and improve their sustainability. </p>
<p>But despite the productivity potential of home food gardens and the like, they are rarely analysed as serious farming systems. There’s little data, for example, on how much can be grown on an average suburban property.</p>
<p>As climate change <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0217148">threatens</a> global food supplies, however, building sustainable urban food systems will be crucial. </p>
<p>Our research has examined how productive the average home vegetable garden really is, and how to get the most from your patch.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="person in gumboots stands on hoe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467888/original/file-20220609-14-7sdug2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467888/original/file-20220609-14-7sdug2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467888/original/file-20220609-14-7sdug2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467888/original/file-20220609-14-7sdug2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467888/original/file-20220609-14-7sdug2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467888/original/file-20220609-14-7sdug2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467888/original/file-20220609-14-7sdug2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Home gardens are rarely analysed as serious farming systems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lawn with a side of salad?</h2>
<p>Urban agriculture refers to growing produce and raising livestock inside a city’s boundary. In Australian cities, it might involve a home vegetable patch, community garden, backyard beehives, an edible rooftop garden on an apartment block, indoor hydroponics, a communal orchard and more.</p>
<p>Sometimes, especially in developing countries, urban farming can help address issues such as poverty, unemployment and food insecurity.</p>
<p>More broadly, it can increase access to healthy, fresh produce and lead to more sustainable food production. It can also help us save money and improve our well-being.</p>
<p>Societies have traditionally lent on urban farming during times of stress. So it’s no surprise the practice resurged during the COVID pandemic. In Australia, keeping edible gardens significantly helped people maintain mental health during lowdown, <a href="https://sustain.org.au/projects/pandemic-gardening-survey-report/">particularly</a> those on low incomes.</p>
<p>But to what extent can we rely on our backyard gardens to meet all our fresh produce needs? Our research shows these three factors are key.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/3-ways-community-gardens-often-exclude-migrants-and-refugees-and-how-to-turn-this-around-164547">3 ways community gardens often exclude migrants and refugees — and how to turn this around</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="public housing with vegetable gardens in foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467892/original/file-20220609-18-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467892/original/file-20220609-18-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467892/original/file-20220609-18-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467892/original/file-20220609-18-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467892/original/file-20220609-18-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467892/original/file-20220609-18-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467892/original/file-20220609-18-qhuwdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gardening helped people get through COVID lockdowns, especially those on low-incomes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Give up some lawn</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102770">looked at</a> the potential for food production at about 40,000 residential properties in suburban Adelaide – mostly free-standing homes.</p>
<p>We calculated the amount of land required for a household of 2.5 people to grow the recommended five servings of vegetables per person each day. Then, using high-resolution aerial imagery to get a birds eye view of properties, we identified those with enough lawn area to make that happen.</p>
<p>Some 21m² of lawn is needed to produce the recommended vegetable intake. In a scenario where a garden is high-yielding, this would require converting 23% of lawn area on a typical block into a vegetable patch. Of the properties modelled, 93% had the room to a create 21m² garden from the total lawn space. </p>
<p>In a medium-yield garden, 72% of lawn on a typical block would need converting to produce enough vegetables to feed a household – equating to 67m². </p>
<p>We limited the research to in-ground veggie production and didn’t include fruit trees. So a property’s potential to grow food would be even higher if food gardens or fruit trees already exist, or other garden beds or paved areas could be converted.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="house with front lawn and sold sign depicting blonde woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467894/original/file-20220609-24-6mbjf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467894/original/file-20220609-24-6mbjf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467894/original/file-20220609-24-6mbjf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467894/original/file-20220609-24-6mbjf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467894/original/file-20220609-24-6mbjf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467894/original/file-20220609-24-6mbjf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467894/original/file-20220609-24-6mbjf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Converting just 23% of lawn can provide enough room to grow your own vegetables.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Up your gardening game</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230232">Research</a> out of Adelaide, which surveyed about 30 home gardeners, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102770">found</a> yields per square metre ranged from 0.24kg to 16.07kg per year. This suggests a high rate of variability in home garden productivity – notwithstanding the fact people grow different crops.</p>
<p>Not all of us have green thumbs and in some cases, your veggie patch might not yield as much as you hoped. </p>
<p>Perhaps you gave it too much or too little water. Maybe you didn’t have time to pull out weeds or harvest produce. Pests and fungus might have struck down your crop. You may have planted the wrong seeds at the wrong time or just have poor soil.</p>
<p>Our research suggests low-yield gardens would need 1,407m² of converted lawn to meet the vegetable needs of a household. However, less than 0.5% of properties in the analysed Adelaide sites had so much land. So to reach self-sufficiency in urban agriculture environments, medium to high yields are preferred.</p>
<p>Skilled gardeners with high yields will need much less land. Given the space constraints in cities, upskilling gardeners is important to maximising production.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="straggly plants in pots with bead bush" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467893/original/file-20220609-24-mz9zxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467893/original/file-20220609-24-mz9zxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467893/original/file-20220609-24-mz9zxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467893/original/file-20220609-24-mz9zxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467893/original/file-20220609-24-mz9zxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467893/original/file-20220609-24-mz9zxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467893/original/file-20220609-24-mz9zxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Your garden may not yield as much as you’d hoped.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Know what’s in your soil</h2>
<p>Good soil <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.130808">is a key factor</a> in productive gardens. It needs a good structure (one that allows water and air to enter and drain easily, while retaining enough moisture) an ample supply of plant nutrients and a rich microbial community.</p>
<p>In city areas, heavy metal contamination and pollution of soils can be a concern.
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122900">We examined</a> soils at 12 urban agricultural sites in Adelaide, and found in all cases that metal concentrations did not exceed health guidelines for residential areas – even at sites with an industrial history.</p>
<p>But this might not always be the case. An <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0045653518302467?via%3Dihub">analysis</a> of residential and community gardens in Melbourne, for example, showed some soils were contaminated at levels which could pose a human health hazard. This highlights the importance of testing urban soils before planting.</p>
<p>Proper management of inputs – particularly fertiliser – is also key. Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122900">research</a> has found urban gardeners can choose from a variety of organic waste-based fertilisers such as spent coffee grounds, food scraps or lawn clippings. But this abundance can lead to imbalances. </p>
<p>In Adelaide, for example, the widespread use of freely available horse manure led to excessive phosphorous levels in almost all of the 12 tested sites. This imbalance can depress plant growth and damage the broader environment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/these-3-tips-will-help-you-create-a-thriving-pollinator-friendly-garden-this-winter-157880">These 3 tips will help you create a thriving pollinator-friendly garden this winter</a>
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<img alt="garden bed with rake and manure on top" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467895/original/file-20220609-14-xuoixu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467895/original/file-20220609-14-xuoixu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467895/original/file-20220609-14-xuoixu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467895/original/file-20220609-14-xuoixu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467895/original/file-20220609-14-xuoixu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467895/original/file-20220609-14-xuoixu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467895/original/file-20220609-14-xuoixu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Using too much manure on a garden can lead to excessive phosphorus levels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Helping city gardens flourish</h2>
<p>Urban agriculture has been <a href="https://www.fial.com.au/urban-agriculture">identified</a> as a A$4 billion economic growth opportunity for Australia. However, suburban blocks are trending towards smaller yards with less growing space.</p>
<p>Given the many benefits of urban farming, it’s time to think more seriously about maximising efficiency and scale.</p>
<p>Community gardens are well placed for knowledge-sharing. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809707115">Research</a> on 13 community gardens in Sydney revealed they were very high-yield – around twice as productive than the typical Australian commercial vegetable farm. </p>
<p>Funding for more community gardens, and other education opportunities for urban gardeners, would be a valuable investment in improving public health and sustainability.</p>
<p>This should be coupled with policy and planning decisions designed to increase the amount of urban farming space in our cities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-we-learn-to-love-slugs-and-snails-in-our-gardens-179568">Could we learn to love slugs and snails in our gardens?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182475/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Really, how productive is the average home vegetable garden – and will it leave you hungry? It largely depends on space, soil and gardening skills.Isobel Violet Hume, PhD Candidate , University of AdelaideMatthias Salomon, Postdoctoral research fellow, University of AdelaideTimothy Cavagnaro, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835062022-06-06T19:23:42Z2022-06-06T19:23:42ZLong-standing systems for sustainable farming could feed people and the planet — if industry is willing to step back<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465818/original/file-20220527-25-519qnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5559%2C2792&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Burren, in western Ireland, is home to a traditional regenerative system of cattle management known as winterage. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Philip Loring)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global food systems are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.683100">at a breaking point</a>. Not only are they responsible for roughly <a href="https://drawdown.org/sectors/food-agriculture-land-use">a quarter</a> of global greenhouse gas emissions, they are also the top contributors to <a href="https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/CA0146EN/">water pollution</a> and <a href="https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/food-systems-and-natural-resources">biodiversity collapse</a>. </p>
<p>On top of that, many aspects of our food systems are extremely vulnerable to disruptions from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-019-0010-4">climate change</a> and other shocks, as we saw in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01532-y">the first months of the pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>Agroecology — an approach to farming long practised by <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/healing-grounds">Indigenous</a> and <a href="https://bookstore.acresusa.com/products/in-the-shadow-of-green-man">peasant communities</a> around the world — could transform our food systems for the better. And agribusinesses in the Global North are actively looking to agroecology to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinesscouncil/2021/08/19/regenerative-agriculture-the-next-trend-in-food-retailing/?sh=170ce8b42153">rebrand and build new markets</a> under the banners of <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-technologies-that-will-help-make-the-food-system-carbon-neutral-182846">carbon farming and regenerative agriculture</a>. </p>
<p>But, a relentless focus on single outcomes, such as <a href="https://digitally.cognizant.com/moving-beyond-carbon-tunnel-vision-with-a-sustainability-data-strategy-codex7121">carbon</a>, coupled with industry’s instinct to define and standardize, threatens the transformative potential of agroecology.</p>
<h2>Win-win food systems</h2>
<p>In addition to their immense ecological costs, our food systems are also <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-global-food-systems-are-rife-with-injustice-heres-how-we-can-change-this-163596">tremendously unjust</a>. As many as <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment#moderate-food-insecurity">one in four people</a> experience moderate or severe food insecurity. The global expansion of industrial agriculture <a href="https://foodispower.org/our-food-choices/colonization-food-and-the-practice-of-eating/">continues to be</a> a vehicle for the violent spread of colonialism. </p>
<p>Agroecology offers the promise of a <a href="https://www.findingournichebook.com/">win-win</a>, where people nourish themselves while <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-researchers-plant-seeds-of-hope-for-health-and-climate-106217">restoring ecosystems and addressing the harms and legacies of colonialism</a>. </p>
<p>It is also at the centre of the <a href="https://foodsecurecanada.org/who-we-are/what-food-sovereignty">food sovereignty movement</a>, a global constellation of peasant- and Indgenous-led organizations fighting for the right to healthy and culturally appropriate food, produced in a way that is ecologically sound and socially acceptable. Food sovereignty is arguably the single <a href="https://fernwoodpublishing.ca/book/food-sovereignty">largest social movement</a> in the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a striped shirt hoists a bundle of corn ears with a rope." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467225/original/file-20220606-16-67k9mu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A member of the Rural Women’s Farmers Association of Ghana hangs corn to preserve the seeds for sowing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Global Justice Now/flickr)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>La Via Campesina, the movement’s largest organization, represents over <a href="https://www.tni.org/en/transnational-institute">200 million farmers</a> in 70 countries. And the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa, which operates <a href="https://afsafrica.org/our-members/">in 50 countries</a>, is the largest civil society movement on the continent. </p>
<p>Agroecology aligns with the food sovereignty movement because it is <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-61315-0_2">inherently emancipatory and democratic</a>. Where industrial food production emphasizes scalability and proprietary technology, consolidating and controlling power and wealth, agroecological practices require wealth and power to be held locally. Producers must have the freedom, flexibility and resources to <a href="https://ensia.com/voices/food-production-regenerative-agriculture-scale/">build healthy and just relationships</a> in communities and among the people and the land. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-many-people-not-enough-food-isnt-the-cause-of-hunger-and-food-insecurity-179168">'Too many people, not enough food' isn't the cause of hunger and food insecurity</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For example, crop development through genetic modification <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-021-10265-3">is closed off to many</a> by intellectual property laws, patents and the high technological competencies and equipment involved. On-farm domestication and breeding are, by contrast, democratic technologies because they necessarily open and entirely reliant on local knowledge and sharing. </p>
<h2>Colonizing agroecology</h2>
<p>Corporate plans to invest in regenerative agriculture appear to be mere appropriations of agroecological practices, <a href="https://thecounter.org/regenerative-agriculture-racial-equity-climate-change-carbon-farming-environmental-issues/">hollowed out of their potential</a> for supporting broad societal transformation.</p>
<p>Agroecological systems are networks of relationships, not collections of practices. They cannot be easily rendered into a set of definitions, standards or technological principles. </p>
<p>For example, Indigenous agroforestry, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102257">a system of forest relations called <em>chagra</em></a>, played an essential role in establishing the rich biodiversity of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/03/its-now-clear-that-ancient-humans-helped-enrich-the-amazon/518439">much of the Amazon</a>. For the practitioners, <em>chagra</em> cannot be distinguished from the forest itself. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-we-raise-livestock-sustainably-a-win-win-solution-for-climate-change-deforestation-and-biodiversity-loss-176416">Can we raise livestock sustainably? A win-win solution for climate change, deforestation and biodiversity loss</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Reginaldo Haslet-Marroquin, CEO of the <a href="https://www.regenagalliance.org/">Regenerative Agriculture Alliance</a>, describes the push to define regenerative agriculture as an act of colonization. “It is fundamental for achieving a regenerative outcome to <em>not</em> define it,” <a href="https://www.spreaker.com/episode/49547148">he told me in a recent interview</a>. “To <em>not</em> reduce it to our myopic understanding of things … to the limitations of our colonizing minds. … Rather, we seek to understand what is, and what isn’t regenerative.”</p>
<p>To put it another way, regenerative is not a technological claim but an ethical one related to how we link knowledge and wisdom <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-021-10282-2">to organize ourselves and our practices</a> in relation to one another and to the land. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="59" data-image="" data-title="Reginaldo Haslett-Marroquin - Excerpt from the Second Transition Podcast, Episode 13." data-size="979192" data-source="(Philip Loring)" data-source-url="https://www.spreaker.com/episode/49547148" data-license="CC BY-NC-SA" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">
<source src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/2514/00-audiograms-regi-teaser-2.mp3" type="audio/mpeg">
</audio>
<div class="audio-player-caption">
Reginaldo Haslett-Marroquin - Excerpt from the Second Transition Podcast, Episode 13.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.spreaker.com/episode/49547148">(Philip Loring)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a><span class="download"><span>956 KB</span> <a target="_blank" href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/2514/00-audiograms-regi-teaser-2.mp3">(download)</a></span></span>
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<h2>An ethical space</h2>
<p>Standards and definitions can help expose <a href="https://modernfarmer.com/2021/07/what-is-greenwashing/">greenwashing</a>, but they can also have unintended consequences. My research on Alaska fisheries, for example, offered <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23360333">lessons</a> about how focusing only on the environmental dimensions of sustainability can perpetuate or even worsen social inequities. </p>
<p>The Marine Stewardship Council’s (MSC) certification, which is the largest framework for fishery sustainability, has also been critiqued along similar lines. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.10.003">MSC has improved ecological practices</a> in fisheries and created new ways for businesses to profit from fisheries, but it has also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-0366.2011.00345.x">marginalized some communities</a> and created <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104526">barriers to entry</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12683">boundaries to innovation</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial view of an island coastline with a rocky wall creating an intertidal pool area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467222/original/file-20220606-18-y5rcah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A large clam garden terrace in the Gulf Islands, B.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Mary Morris, Simon Fraser University/flickr)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Agroecological systems are <a href="https://theconversation.com/regenerative-agriculture-can-make-farmers-stewards-of-the-land-again-110570">as diverse</a> as the people practising them and the places where they are practised. <a href="https://clamgarden.com/">Indigenous clam gardens</a> in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska are a world away from the system of ranching known as <a href="https://www.burrenwinterage.com/">cattle winterage</a> in the Burren of Ireland. But they share an ethical landscape defined by a commitment to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2012.06.008">social and ecological justice</a>. </p>
<p>There is no doubt that regenerative agriculture and other agroecological practices can help address climate change, including by <a href="https://capi-icpa.ca/explore/resources/translating-science-to-policy-approaches-to-increase-soil-carbon-sequestration-in-canadas-croplands/">sequestering carbon in the soil</a>. But, at a time when innovation and diffusion of new ideas are urgently needed, fostering an ethical agroecological space where people can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.05.016">experiment</a> and <a href="https://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/publications/social-learning-practice-review-lessons-impacts-and-tools-climate">share</a> is a more promising theory of change than creating mechanisms to enforce uniformity and exclusion. </p>
<p>Agribusiness has an opportunity to be part of a global transition to more ecologically sound and socially just food systems. That will require the sector to set aside narrow understandings of the problem and abandon the imperative to colonize the spaces of innovation long-held by Indigenous Peoples and other racialized people around the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip A Loring receives funding from the Arrell Food Institute, from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, and from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada</span></em></p>Industry seeks to capitalize on regenerative agriculture, but standards that focus only on carbon or other select environmental metrics will undermine its transformative potentialPhilip A Loring, Associate Professor and Arrell Chair in Food, Policy, and Society, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1826682022-05-17T19:59:29Z2022-05-17T19:59:29Z6 books about the climate crisis that offer hope<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462611/original/file-20220512-22-nj0z5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-next-australian-government-must-do-to-save-the-great-barrier-reef-182861">Coral bleaching</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sad-reality-is-many-dont-survive-how-floods-affect-wildlife-and-how-you-can-help-them-178310">floods</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/conservation-scientists-are-grieving-after-the-bushfires-but-we-must-not-give-up-130195">bushfire</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/fail-our-report-card-on-the-governments-handling-of-australias-extinction-crisis-181786">biodiversity decline and extinction</a> – as we witness the effects of climate change, amid a stream of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/04/ipcc-report-now-or-never-if-world-stave-off-climate-disaster">reports</a> warning of <a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-earths-future-well-the-outlook-is-worse-than-even-scientists-can-grasp-153091">the cost</a> of government inaction, it is easy to feel overwhelmed.</p>
<p>How to counter the gloom? We asked six environmental experts to each nominate a book about the climate crisis that offers hope.</p>
<hr>
<h2>1. All We Can Save: Truth, Courage, and Solutions for the Climate Crisis – edited by Ayana Elizabeth Johnson and Katharine Keeble Wilkinson (2020)</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462406/original/file-20220511-13-pn6746.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462406/original/file-20220511-13-pn6746.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462406/original/file-20220511-13-pn6746.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462406/original/file-20220511-13-pn6746.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462406/original/file-20220511-13-pn6746.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462406/original/file-20220511-13-pn6746.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1106&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462406/original/file-20220511-13-pn6746.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1106&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462406/original/file-20220511-13-pn6746.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1106&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Despair, disempowerment and division are all enemies of positive action, and crippling in the face of tremendous challenges such as the climate change crisis. <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/all-we-can-save-9780593237069">All We Can Save</a> is the antithesis of such emotions and concerns. Hope is a powerful motivator, especially when it’s delivered in such a creative, thoughtful, inclusive and diverse way.</p>
<p>Critically, All We Can Save brings together women’s voices, spanning culture, geography and ages. Women are still, shamefully, not heard nearly enough – and worse, actively suppressed in some instances and quarters. Society suffers because of this. </p>
<p>In this book, however, scientists, farmers, teachers, artists, journalists, lawyers, activists and others share their unique perspectives, through their essays, poetry and art. They explore how to confront the climate crisis, the damage already inflicted, but most importantly, how to bring about positive change and progress. </p>
<p>Food for the mind and soul, at at time when <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-next-government-must-tackle-our-collapsing-ecosystems-and-extinction-crisis-182048">it’s needed more than ever</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Euan Ritchie</strong></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/4-assumptions-about-gender-that-distort-how-we-think-about-climate-change-and-3-ways-to-do-better-156126">4 assumptions about gender that distort how we think about climate change (and 3 ways to do better)</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. Great Adaptations: In the Shadow of a Climate Crisis – Morgan Phillips (2021)</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462404/original/file-20220511-25-nm7mue.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462404/original/file-20220511-25-nm7mue.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462404/original/file-20220511-25-nm7mue.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462404/original/file-20220511-25-nm7mue.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462404/original/file-20220511-25-nm7mue.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462404/original/file-20220511-25-nm7mue.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462404/original/file-20220511-25-nm7mue.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462404/original/file-20220511-25-nm7mue.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>There is no point in pretending. There are no “good stories” about global warming. They are all framed by the crisis we refuse to talk about in Australia. We desperately need a national conversation about how to live in the perilous world forming around us. </p>
<p>Morgan Phillips’s <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/58139550-great-adaptations">Great Adaptations: In the Shadow of a Climate Crisis</a> is not an Australian book. Its perspectives are international – British, European, Nepalese, North American. </p>
<p>Phillips doesn’t flinch from contemplating bleak prospects: systemic collapses, food and water insecurity, biodiversity decline. But his focus is neither on sheer doom, nor naive techno-optimism. He instead brings careful balance to his consideration of good adaptation and harmful (mal) adaptation. </p>
<p>He pushes us to think beyond fragmented reactions to individual climate catastrophes, such as droughts, fires, floods and storms – reactions that favour the wealthy and are based on the delusion that all will spring back to “normal”. </p>
<p>His aim is realistic “transformative adaptation”. He argues for enduring, flexible and equitable adjustments to nature’s new lottery. At the heart of his examples of success – from “<a href="https://www.ctc-n.org/technologies/fog-harvesting">fog harvesting</a>” for water in arid Morocco to climate-responsive <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agroforestry">agro-forestry</a> in Nepal – is the need for constant dialogue to guide adjustments to changing conditions. </p>
<p>Great Adaptations is a brilliant provocation for the discussion we must have. </p>
<p><strong>Peter Christoff</strong> </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/message-in-a-bottle-the-wine-industry-gives-farmers-a-taste-of-what-to-expect-from-climate-change-45361">Message in a bottle: the wine industry gives farmers a taste of what to expect from climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Who Really Feeds the World? The Failure of Agribusiness and the Promise of Agroecology – Vandana Shiva (2016)</h2>
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<p>The climate crisis has accentuated already unjust and ecologically unviable global food systems. Australia’s recent bushfires and floods, for example, destroyed crops, devastated food-producing landscapes and their communities, and disrupted transport networks. Each laid bare a corporate controlled food system characterised by escalating food prices, growing rates of hunger, and food insecurity. </p>
<p>How might fair and just food systems be fostered – systems that are resilient in the face of climate chaos? </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.akpress.org/whoreallyfeedstheworld.html">Who Really Feeds the World? The Failure of Agribusiness and the Promise of Agroecology</a>, Vandana Shiva sets out principles and practices that may offer some solutions. Drawing on a range of examples from around the world, including the
<a href="https://www.navdanya.org/">Navdanya</a> movement based in India (which she founded), Shiva presents agroecology, living soil, biodiversity and small-scale farming as life-affirming responses. </p>
<p>Small-scale farmers on small parcels of land already produce 70% of the world’s food. They really can feed the world.</p>
<p>The challenge then – one of many – is how we might breathe life into the principles advocated by <a href="https://humansandnature.org/vandana-shiva/">this</a> award-winning environmental activist, recipient of the Right Livelihood Award and Sydney Peace Prize. In an Australian context, this will include addressing the violent settler-colonial foundations upon which Australia’s agriculture and food systems have been built. </p>
<p><strong>Kristen Lyons</strong></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stories-from-the-sky-astronomy-in-indigenous-knowledge-33140">Stories from the sky: astronomy in Indigenous knowledge</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. Fresh Banana Leaves: Healing Indigenous Landscapes through Indigenous Science – Jessica Hernandez (2022)</h2>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463167/original/file-20220516-14-jnmy35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463167/original/file-20220516-14-jnmy35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463167/original/file-20220516-14-jnmy35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463167/original/file-20220516-14-jnmy35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463167/original/file-20220516-14-jnmy35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463167/original/file-20220516-14-jnmy35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463167/original/file-20220516-14-jnmy35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Raging fires, desperate droughts and unprecedented floods underscore the power and terror of the climate catastrophe. As we experience these brutal reminders of our dependence on healthy ecosystems, many of us are searching for a different way to reconnect with the world around us.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/fresh-banana-leaves-9781623176051">Fresh Banana Leaves</a>, Jessica Hernandez offers us the concept of “kincentric ecology”, in which the enduring relationship between Indigenous peoples and place is one of mutual interdependence. </p>
<p>She argues that “we are not separate from nature” and that “Indigenous peoples view their natural resources and surroundings as part of their kin, relatives, and communities”. </p>
<p>Hernandez’s book demonstrates the power of Indigenous science (and the leadership of Indigenous peoples) to help bring all of us back into good relations with nature. In doing so, she offers us a glimpse of a decolonised, just and sustainable future. </p>
<p><strong>Erin O'Donnell</strong></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/engineers-have-built-machines-to-scrub-co-from-the-air-but-will-it-halt-climate-change-152975">Engineers have built machines to scrub CO₂ from the air. But will it halt climate change?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>5. The Precipice – Toby Ord (2020)</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463168/original/file-20220516-64792-yh8b8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463168/original/file-20220516-64792-yh8b8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463168/original/file-20220516-64792-yh8b8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463168/original/file-20220516-64792-yh8b8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463168/original/file-20220516-64792-yh8b8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463168/original/file-20220516-64792-yh8b8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1139&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463168/original/file-20220516-64792-yh8b8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1139&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463168/original/file-20220516-64792-yh8b8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1139&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>In <a href="https://theprecipice.com/">The Precipice</a>, Toby Ord considers a range of “existential risks” that could, in the next few centuries, curtail the immense potential for long-term human flourishing. It leaves me perversely hopeful about climate change for three reasons. </p>
<p>Firstly, while acknowledging that climate change will cause immense suffering, Ord only identifies a few, relatively unlikely scenarios that leave humanity extinct or “stuck” barely surviving. </p>
<p>Secondly, he considers a range of human-generated and natural risks that are of even greater concern. Many of these risks are exacerbated by the increasing accessibility of powerful technologies once available only to elites, such as bio-engineering and artificial intelligence. These are all risks that we either create or will need to cooperate to mitigate; their occurrence and their level of impact are within our influence. </p>
<p>Thirdly, Ord makes a compelling case that we have many of the institutions, technologies and policy tools necessary to manage long-term existential risks. There is work all of us can do now to help. Climate change can make many other risks worse. Solving it requires solving others at the same time. </p>
<p>The Precipice leaves one with a sense that we will need to be better humans to make it through the next centuries, but a brighter future awaits. If we attain this future, we will deserve to, because we will have married our power and prosperity with civilisational maturity, compassion and wisdom.</p>
<p><strong>Stefan Kaufman</strong></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-trees-have-many-stories-to-tell-is-this-our-last-chance-to-read-them-161428">Friday essay: trees have many stories to tell. Is this our last chance to read them?</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<h2>6. Trees and Global Warming: The Role of Forests in Cooling and Warming the Atmosphere – William J. Manning (2020)</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462590/original/file-20220511-20-9iv5pe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462590/original/file-20220511-20-9iv5pe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462590/original/file-20220511-20-9iv5pe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462590/original/file-20220511-20-9iv5pe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462590/original/file-20220511-20-9iv5pe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462590/original/file-20220511-20-9iv5pe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462590/original/file-20220511-20-9iv5pe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462590/original/file-20220511-20-9iv5pe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>As climates change and Australia warms, trees are often seen as a panacea, but, as is invariably the case with ecosystems, things can be complicated. </p>
<p>As William J. Manning tells us in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/trees-and-global-warming/E09E2F9315E2621AD32987F0E778FEE4#fndtn-information">Trees and Global Warming</a>, trees can warm as well as cool the atmosphere. The colour of their leaves (light or dark green) influences how much radiation is absorbed, transmitted and reflected, and how much they cool. </p>
<p>Manning is not looking at trees and forests through rose-coloured glasses, but through a strong scientific lens. They come out as winners when it comes to tackling climate change because, cultivated effectively, they can shade and cool, reduce the urban heat-island effect, sequester carbon, and much more. </p>
<p>Trees are an essential, cost-effective and sustainable part of living with climate change. We must protect the trees and forests that we have. Planting more trees is part of a quick and cheap solution, providing more liveable towns and cities across our continent. </p>
<p><strong>Greg Moore</strong></p>
<p><em>Correction: The book Great Adaptations was initially described as aiming for realistic “deep adaptation”. This has been amended, at the author of the book’s request, to “transformative adaptation”.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182668/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Euan G. Ritchie is the Chair of the Media Working Group of the Ecological Society of Australia, Deputy Convener (Communication and Outreach) for the Deakin Science and Society Network, and a member of the Australian Mammal Society.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin O'Donnell is currently on a part-time secondment to the Victorian state government. She receives funding from the Federation of Victorian Traditional Owner Corporations and the Northern Land Council. She is a member of the Birrarung Council, the voice of the Birrarung/Yarra River. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristen Lyons is affiliated with the Australian Greens. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Kaufman receives funding via the BWA Consortium from the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Water and Environment, the Victorian Government Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Sustainability Victoria and the Shannon Company for the BWA Climate Change Adaptation Behaviour Change Mission. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Moore and Peter Christoff do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We asked six experts to nominate books that might help us avert environmental catastrophe. Here’s what they said.Euan Ritchie, Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversityErin O'Donnell, Early Career Academic Fellow, Centre for Resources, Energy and Environment Law, The University of MelbourneGregory Moore, Doctor of Botany, The University of MelbourneKristen Lyons, Professor, Environment and Development Sociology, The University of QueenslandPeter Christoff, Senior Research Fellow and Associate Professor, Melbourne Climate Futures initiative, The University of MelbourneStefan Kaufman, Senior Research Fellow, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1791682022-04-11T16:12:34Z2022-04-11T16:12:34Z‘Too many people, not enough food’ isn’t the cause of hunger and food insecurity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456682/original/file-20220406-5430-zxcqk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=76%2C139%2C8373%2C5485&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A wheat warehouse in western Ukraine. Food insecurity is expected to worsen with rising food prices and the war trapping wheat, barley and corn in Ukraine and Russia. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nearly <a href="https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/food">one in three people in the world did not have access to enough food in 2020</a>. That’s an increase of almost 320 million people in one year and it’s expected to get worse with rising food prices and the war trapping wheat, barley and corn in Ukraine and Russia.</p>
<p>Climate change related floods, fires and extreme weather, combined with armed conflict and a worldwide pandemic have magnified this crisis by affecting <a href="http://www.righttofood.org/work-of-jean-ziegler-at-the-un/what-is-the-right-to-food/">the right to food</a>.</p>
<p>Many assume world hunger is due to “too many people, not enough food.” This trope has persisted since the 18th century when economist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Malthus">Thomas Malthus</a> postulated that the human population would eventually exceed the planet’s carrying capacity. This belief moves us away from addressing the root causes of hunger and malnutrition. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-billion-people-cannot-afford-a-healthy-diet-160139">inequity</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4474en">armed conflict</a> play a larger role. The world’s hungry are disproportionately located in Africa and Asia, in conflict-ridden zones. </p>
<p>As a researcher who has been working on food systems since 1991, I believe that addressing root causes is the only way to tackle hunger and malnutrition. For this, we need more equitable distribution of land, water and income, as well as investments in sustainable diets and peace-building. </p>
<h2>But how will we feed the world?</h2>
<p>The world produces enough food to provide every man, woman and child with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205683">more than 2,300 kilocalories per day</a>, which is more than sufficient. However, <a href="http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/28/079.html">poverty and inequality</a> — structured by class, gender, race and the impact of colonialism — have resulted in an unequal access to the Earth’s bounty. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454376/original/file-20220325-15-1do8cfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of the world with the level of access to food emphasized with different shades of blue" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454376/original/file-20220325-15-1do8cfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454376/original/file-20220325-15-1do8cfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454376/original/file-20220325-15-1do8cfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454376/original/file-20220325-15-1do8cfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454376/original/file-20220325-15-1do8cfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454376/original/file-20220325-15-1do8cfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454376/original/file-20220325-15-1do8cfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Despite adequate food production globally, poverty and inequality restrict many people’s access to healthy food.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(FAO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Half of global crop production consists of sugar cane, maize, wheat and rice — a great deal of which is used for <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/food-systems-hold-key-ending-world-hunger">sweeteners and other high-calorie, low-nutrient products</a>, as feed for <a href="https://endindustrialmeat.org/problem">industrially produced meat</a>, biofuels and vegetable oil. </p>
<p>The global food system is controlled by a handful of transnational corporations that produce <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6198966">highly processed foods</a>, containing <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/what-are-ultra-processed-foods-and-are-they-bad-for-our-health-202001091860">sugar, salt, fat and artificial colours or preservatives</a>. Overconsumption of these foods is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30041-8">killing people around the world</a> and taxing healthcare costs. </p>
<p>Nutrition experts say that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205683">we should limit sugars, saturated and trans fats, oils and simple carbohydrates and eat an abundance of fruits and vegetables</a> with only a quarter of our plates consisting of protein and dairy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also recommends a move toward <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">sustainable healthy diets</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30177-7">recent study</a> showed that overconsumption of <a href="https://www.heartandstroke.ca/articles/what-is-ultra-processed-food">highly processed foods</a> — soft drinks, snacks, breakfast cereals, packaged soups and confectionery items — can lead to negative environmental and health impacts, such as Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disorders. </p>
<p>Steering the world away from highly processed foods will also lessen their negative impacts on land, water and reduce energy consumption. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A stretch of land on a green mountainous terrain with a handful of wooden homes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457171/original/file-20220408-25087-v46vny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457171/original/file-20220408-25087-v46vny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457171/original/file-20220408-25087-v46vny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457171/original/file-20220408-25087-v46vny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457171/original/file-20220408-25087-v46vny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457171/original/file-20220408-25087-v46vny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457171/original/file-20220408-25087-v46vny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Land reform initiatives in Madagascar have helped further plans to redistribute land and reduce food insecurity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<h2>We live in a world of plenty</h2>
<p>Since the 1960s, <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/un-desa-policy-brief-102-population-food-security-nutrition-and-sustainable-development/">global agricultural production has outpaced population growth</a>. Yet the Malthusian theory continues to focus on the risk of population increases outstripping the Earth’s <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/topics/resource-library-carrying-capacity/">carrying capacity</a>, even though <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02522-6">global population is peaking</a>.</p>
<p>Nobel Laureate <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Amartya-Sen">Amartya Sen</a>’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/0198284632.001.0001">study of the Great Bengal Famine</a> of 1943 challenged Malthus by demonstrating that millions died of hunger because they didn’t have the money to buy food, not due to food shortages. </p>
<p>In 1970, Danish economist <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/applied-and-social-sciences-magazines/boserup-ester">Ester Boserup</a> also questioned Malthus’s assumptions. She argued that rising incomes, women’s equality and urbanization would ultimately stem the tide of population growth, with the birthrate, even in poor countries, dropping to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02522-6">at or below replacement levels</a>.</p>
<p>Food — like water — is an entitlement, and public policy should stem from this. Unfortunately, land and income remain highly unevenly distributed, resulting in food insecurity, even in wealthy countries. While land redistribution is notoriously difficult, some land reform initiatives — <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/08/02/madagascar-sets-an-example-for-land-reform">like the one in Madagascar </a> — have been successful. </p>
<h2>The role of war in hunger</h2>
<p>Hunger is <a href="https://www.un.org/en/food-systems-summit/news/breaking-vicious-circle-hunger-and-conflict">aggravated by armed conflict</a>. The countries with the highest rates of food insecurity have been ravaged by war, <a href="https://onu.delegfrance.org/Food-insecurity-linked-to-armed-conflicts">such as Somalia</a>. More than half of the people who are undernourished and almost 80 percent of children with stunted growth <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb4474en/online/cb4474en.html#chapter-1-introduction">live in countries struggling with some form of conflict, violence or fragility</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Women stand in a queue with empty food containers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456428/original/file-20220405-22-rujq7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456428/original/file-20220405-22-rujq7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456428/original/file-20220405-22-rujq7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456428/original/file-20220405-22-rujq7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456428/original/file-20220405-22-rujq7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456428/original/file-20220405-22-rujq7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456428/original/file-20220405-22-rujq7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Women queue up to receive food distributed by local volunteers at a camp in Somalia on May 18, 2019. Conflicts hinder the effective delivery of humanitarian aid during food security crisis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh)</span></span>
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<p>UN Secretary General António Guterres has warned that the war in Ukraine puts 45 African and least developed countries at risk of a “<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113882">hurricane of hunger</a>,” as they import at least a third of their wheat from Ukraine or Russia. According to the <em>New York Times</em>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/world/americas/ukraine-war-global-food-crisis.html">the World Food Program has been forced to cut rations to nearly four million people</a> due to higher food prices. </p>
<p>What works, ultimately, are adequate <a href="https://www.ilo.org/secsoc/areas-of-work/policy-development-and-applied-research/social-protection-floor/lang--en/index.htm">social protection floors</a> (basic social security guarantees) and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.686492">rights based “food sovereignty” approaches that put communities in control of their own local food systems</a>. For example, the <a href="https://interpares.ca/news/responding-hunger-solidarity">Deccan Development Society in India</a> assists rural women by providing access to nutritious food and other community supports.</p>
<p>To address food insecurity, we must <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/6a684a4b-en">invest in diplomacy</a> by co-ordinating humanitarian, development and peacekeeping activities to avoid and curtail armed conflicts. Poverty reduction is part of peace building as rampant inequalities <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5980670a40f0b61e4b00003e/Poverty-and-conflict_RP.pdf">serve as tinderboxes for aggression</a>.</p>
<h2>Protecting our ability to produce food</h2>
<p>Climate change and poor environmental management have put collective food production assets including soil, water and pollinators <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/how-feed-10-billion-people">in peril</a>. </p>
<p>Several <a href="https://doi.org/10.5571/syntheng.12.1_41">studies over the past 30 years</a> have warned that soil and water contamination from high concentrations of toxins such as pesticides, dwindling biodiversity and disappearing pollinators could further affect the quality and quantity of food production.</p>
<p>Livestock, crop production, agricultural expansion and food processing account for <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/food-ghg-emissions">a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.fao.org/food-loss-and-food-waste/flw-data">one-third of all food produced is lost or goes to waste</a>, so <a href="https://www.wfpusa.org/articles/8-facts-to-know-about-food-waste-and-hunger/">tackling this travesty</a> is also paramount.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-food-waste-can-generate-clean-energy-176352">Here's how food waste can generate clean energy</a>
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<p>Reducing food loss and waste will help reduce environmental impacts of the food system, as will transitioning to healthier, sustainably produced diets. </p>
<h2>Food, health and environmental sustainability</h2>
<p>Food is an entitlement and should be viewed as such, not framed as an issue of population growth or inadequate food production. Poverty and systemic inequalities are the root causes of food insecurity as is armed conflict. Keeping this idea central in discussions about feeding the world is essential.</p>
<p>We need policies that support <a href="https://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/en/">healthy and sustainably produced, balanced diets</a> to address chronic diet-related disease, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5/">environmental issues and climate change</a>.</p>
<p>We need more initiatives that enable equitable distribution of land, water and income globally.</p>
<p>We need policies that address food insecurity through initiatives like rights-based food sovereignty systems.</p>
<p>In areas affected by conflict and war, we need policies that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/6a684a4b-en">invest in diplomacy</a> by co-ordinating humanitarian, development and peacekeeping activities.</p>
<p>These are the key pathways to recognize that “<a href="https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/">food is the single strongest lever to optimize human health and environmental sustainability on Earth</a>.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179168/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gisèle Yasmeen has, as an individual and as the previous officer of various organizations, received funding from various funding programs of the Government of Canada as well as numerous provincial sources </span></em></p>Environmental catastrophe, war, a worldwide pandemic. What does this mean for feeding the world today and in the future?Gisèle Yasmeen, Senior Fellow, School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1668972022-02-17T03:32:48Z2022-02-17T03:32:48ZEnvironmental footprint calculators have one big flaw we need to talk about<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444907/original/file-20220207-17-3fg94t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6006%2C4016&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Are you one of the increasingly large number of people seeking to minimise the environmental damage wrought when producing the food you eat? If so, you might use the common “environmental footprint” method to decide what to buy.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/ecological-footprint/">Environmental footprints</a> measure the environmental damage caused by a product throughout its life. For food, this includes the impacts of growing crops and livestock, and manufacturing the inputs required such as fertilisers. It can also include packaging and transport. </p>
<p>But unfortunately, environmental footprints often don’t tell the full story. When consumers switch to a food seen as more environmentally friendly, its production expands at the expense of other products. This has consequences that environmental footprints don’t take into account. </p>
<p>Environmental footprint calculators may promise to help consumers lead a greener life. But they may in fact encourage choices that don’t benefit – and may even harm – the environment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man reaches for item in supermarket" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444909/original/file-20220207-13-qqljax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444909/original/file-20220207-13-qqljax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444909/original/file-20220207-13-qqljax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444909/original/file-20220207-13-qqljax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444909/original/file-20220207-13-qqljax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444909/original/file-20220207-13-qqljax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444909/original/file-20220207-13-qqljax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Footprint calculators may encourage choices that don’t necessarily benefit the environment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neil Hall/EPA</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>A problematic assumption</h2>
<p>We are experts in assessing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation for agricultural systems. We regularly provide policy advice to governments, United Nations bodies and other organisations. </p>
<p>The design of environmental footprint calculators is guided by international <a href="https://www.iso.org/files/live/sites/isoorg/files/archive/pdf/en/14067_briefing_note.pdf">standards organisations</a> and policymakers, including the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/news/environmental-footprint-methods-2021-12-16_en">European Union</a>. The tool is commonly found on the websites of environmental groups, government agencies, companies and other organisations.</p>
<p>The calculators aim to guide consumer choice, by assessing the impacts of current production on the environment. But this is a problem. </p>
<p>It assumes the footprint of a product calculated today remains constant as production is scaled up or down, but this often doesn’t hold true. When demand for a product changes, this has knock-on effects on nature. It might mean more agricultural land is required, or river water is used to irrigate different crops. </p>
<p>Below, we examine three ways environmental footprints can provide a misleading picture of a product’s true impacts. </p>
<h2>1. Land use</h2>
<p>Agriculture makes a large contribution to greenhouse gas emissions – primarily due to animal belches but also the production and use of synthetic fertilisers.</p>
<p>Organic farming can help reduce agriculture emissions, primarily because it doesn’t use synthetic fertiliser. But some research suggests converting to organic farming production could also exacerbate greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="tractor ploughs field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444911/original/file-20220207-25-1p3omnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444911/original/file-20220207-25-1p3omnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444911/original/file-20220207-25-1p3omnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444911/original/file-20220207-25-1p3omnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444911/original/file-20220207-25-1p3omnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444911/original/file-20220207-25-1p3omnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444911/original/file-20220207-25-1p3omnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some research suggests converting to organic farming production could also exacerbate greenhouse gas emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12622-7?emc=edit_clim_20191106?campaign_id=54&instance_id=13660&nl=climate-fwd:&regi_id=94033519&segment_id=18572&te=1">study</a> in England and Wales examined what would happen if all food production was converted to organic. It found global greenhouse gas emissions from food production could increase by <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12622-7/tables/1">about 60%</a>.</p>
<p>This was because organic systems produce lower yields, meaning more crop and livestock production would be needed overseas to make up the shortfall. Creating this agricultural land would mean clearing vegetation, which emits carbon dioxide when it decomposes.</p>
<p>And when grasslands are converted to cropland, soil organic carbon is also lost.
Enhanced soil carbon storage from organic farming offsets only a small part of the higher overseas emissions.</p>
<p>When considering the consequences of switching from one food to another, the type of agricultural land used is also important.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meat-and-masculinity-why-some-men-just-cant-stomach-plant-based-food-174785">Meat and masculinity: why some men just can't stomach plant-based food</a>
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<p>In Australia, about 325 million hectares of land is used to <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/agriculture/agricultural-commodities-australia/2019-20">raise cattle</a> to produce red meat. This land often <a href="https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/dpi/climate/climate-science-and-policy/climate-policy-environment/values-of-mixed-farming-systems/">can’t be used</a> to grow crops because it’s too dry, steep, vegetated or rocky. </p>
<p>If consumers switch from red meat to plant-based diets, more land suitable for growing crops would be needed, either in Australia or overseas, to produce alternative proteins such as legumes or plant-based meats.</p>
<p>In Australia, existing arable land is already being used to supply crops to domestic and global markets. So new land would have to be made suitable for crops, either by cultivating grazing land or clearing forest. Alternatively, crop production could be increased by using more fertiliser or other inputs.</p>
<p>The emissions associated with these shifts are not included in carbon footprints of plant-based protein production. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="cows grazing in field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444914/original/file-20220207-13-m4uqj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444914/original/file-20220207-13-m4uqj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444914/original/file-20220207-13-m4uqj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444914/original/file-20220207-13-m4uqj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444914/original/file-20220207-13-m4uqj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444914/original/file-20220207-13-m4uqj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444914/original/file-20220207-13-m4uqj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Around 325 million hectares of land in Australia is used to raise cattle for meat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rick Rycroft/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Water</h2>
<p>It’s commonly <a href="https://www.veganaustralia.org.au/wate">assumed</a> that choosing a product with a smaller water footprint will increase the water in rivers and lakes which replenishes the environment. However, in Australia, policy and markets determine how water is used. </p>
<p>Irrigation water can be traded between users. If a water-intensive crop such as rice is no longer grown, the farmer will almost always either use the water to grow a different crop or trade it with another farmer. In such a scenario, no water is returned to the environment. </p>
<p>Similarly, a fall in red meat production may not necessarily increase water for the environment. </p>
<p>Farmers whose land adjoins a river or other water body are <a href="https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/water/licensing-trade/landholder-rights/domestic-stock-rights">allowed to take</a> water for livestock to drink. Fewer livestock would leave more water available in rivers, but <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-015-1705-y">research</a> in Australia suggests this water would be extracted for domestic uses, especially in dry years. </p>
<h2>3. Goods produced together</h2>
<p>Many agricultural products are produced in conjunction with others. For example, a cow slaughtered for red meat will also produce hide, meat meal and tallow. Likewise, a sheep can produce wool when alive, then other products when slaughtered.</p>
<p>So if consumers eschewed red meat due to its high carbon footprint, the associated products would also need to be replaced – and this would have environmental impacts. </p>
<p>If synthetic materials replace wool or hides, for example, demand for oil will likely increase. Or if wool is replaced with bio-based products such as cotton or hemp, demand for cropland will increase.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="pile of handbags" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444916/original/file-20220207-24-1h6g1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444916/original/file-20220207-24-1h6g1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444916/original/file-20220207-24-1h6g1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444916/original/file-20220207-24-1h6g1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444916/original/file-20220207-24-1h6g1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444916/original/file-20220207-24-1h6g1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444916/original/file-20220207-24-1h6g1lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A switch from hide to synthetic materials would likely increase oil demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Increasing milk production per cow – and thus keeping fewer cows – has been considered as a way to reduce livestock emissions. But <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/System-expansion-and-allocation-in-life-cycle-of-Cederberg-Stadig/7eb11c58aec2a11127579d101d8a5213170e8f45">research</a> suggests it may not have the intended result.</p>
<p>Fewer cows would produce fewer calves, which are used to produce veal. The research found less veal would require more red meat to be produced elsewhere, meaning no overall reduction in emissions. </p>
<p>It is realistic to assume that more red meat would be required. While per capita beef consumption is declining in some <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/meat-consumption">Western countries</a>, global demand for beef is projected to increase to <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb5332en/Meat.pdf">2030</a> as wealth in developing countries increases and global population grows.</p>
<h2>Towards a healthier planet</h2>
<p>We and other experts are increasingly trying to <a href="https://www.farminstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FPJ_November_2020_occasional-paper.pdf">raise awareness</a> of the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12074">simplistic</a> nature of environmental footprints.</p>
<p>It’s important to recognise the limitations of current methods and create tools that fully assess the consequences of consumers’ decisions.</p>
<p>Developing these tools will be <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/5/706/htm">challenging</a>, due to the many uncertainties involved, and will require substantial research investment. </p>
<p>But it will lead to better environmental policy, fewer unintended consequences and a healthier planet. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-drink-milk-heres-how-to-get-enough-calcium-and-other-nutrients-165466">Don't drink milk? Here's how to get enough calcium and other nutrients</a>
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</em>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aaron Simmons is a Technical Specialist in Climate Change Mitigation with the NSW Department of Primary Industries, and a
an adjunct Senior Research Fellow with The University of New England. He receives funding from the Commonwealth government and rural research and development corporations. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annette Cowie is a Senior Principal Research Scientist in the Climate Branch at the NSW Department of Primary Industries, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Environmental and Rural Science at the University of New England. She receives research funding from NSW and Commonwealth government programs and rural research and development corporations. She is a member of Soil Science Australia and an adviser to the Australia New Zealand Biochar Industry Group and the Land Degradation Neutrality Fund.</span></em></p>Environmental footprint calculators may promise to help consumers lead a greener life. But they may in fact encourage choices that don’t benefit – or even harm – the environment.Aaron Simmons, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, University of New EnglandAnnette Cowie, Adjunct Professor, University of New EnglandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1759512022-01-31T10:05:02Z2022-01-31T10:05:02ZHow a humble mushroom could save forests and fight climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443200/original/file-20220128-21-13icd5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C549%2C351&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The blue milk cap mushroom is a rich source of protein.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/2634463059">laerke_lyhne </a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The conversion of forests to agricultural land is happening at a mind-boggling speed. Between 2015 and 2020, the rate of deforestation was estimated at around 10 million hectares <a href="https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8642en">every year</a>.</p>
<p>Compared to 2012, the UN’s <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/i6583e/i6583e.pdf">Food and Agriculture Organisation</a> (FAO) is predicting a massive increase in agricultural demand of 50% by 2050. In South America, around 71% of rainforest has been replaced by pasture and a further 14% has been lost to the production of <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034017">animal feed</a>. One of the key successes of COP26 was a pledge from world leaders to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/over-100-leaders-make-landmark-pledge-to-end-deforestation-at-cop26#:%7E:text=change%20and%20energy-,Over%20100%20leaders%20make%20landmark%20pledge%20to%20end%20deforestation%20at,and%20land%20degradation%20by%202030.&text=Announcements%20are%20part%20of%20an,commitments%20to%20end%20deforestation%20worldwide.">end deforestation by 2030</a>.</p>
<p>From a climate and carbon point of view, we know that cutting down trees at this scale is devastating. But the impacts run deeper: <a href="https://www.fao.org/in-action/forest-and-water-programme/news/news-detail/en/c/435465/">75% of the world’s accessible fresh water</a> arises from forested watersheds. And with 80% of the world’s population facing a <a href="https://www.fao.org/forestry/communication-toolkit/76377/en/">threat to their water security</a>, trees play a very significant role in stemming desertification and preventing soil erosion. They also protect against flooding in coastal areas as well as being home to a huge number of species, many of which are important crop pollinators.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1ROlZy9hKuU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>So what can we do? We know that different foods have different footprints. Reducing the quantity of animal-based products will have a huge impact. In fact, eating less meat is one of the most potent changes that people in the west can make to help save the planet.</p>
<p>But what if we could go further? What if, instead of having farming and forestry in direct conflict, we could develop a system that allows food production and forest on the same parcel of land?</p>
<h2>Miraculous mushrooms</h2>
<p>This is exactly what our latest <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969721063798">research</a> focuses on, looking at fungi that grow in partnership with trees, in a mutually beneficial arrangement. This is a common association and some species can produce large mushroom fruiting bodies, such as the highly prized truffle. Aside from this delicacy, cultivation of these species is a new and emerging field. But progress is especially being made in one group known as milk caps, that include a beautiful and unusually bright blue species known as <em>Lactarius indigo</em>, or the blue milk cap.</p>
<p>High in dietary fibre and essential fatty acids, this edible mushroom’s blue pigmentation means they are easy to identify safely. With extracts demonstrating antibacterial properties and an ability to <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f9ff/253d9296f04db28f6bdb2e074b381e0035c7.pdf">kill cancer cells</a>, the blue milk cap could also be a source of pharmacological potential.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graphic showing the process of inoculating tree saplings with the fungus of the blue milk cap mushroom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443177/original/file-20220128-25-12cb7bg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443177/original/file-20220128-25-12cb7bg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443177/original/file-20220128-25-12cb7bg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443177/original/file-20220128-25-12cb7bg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443177/original/file-20220128-25-12cb7bg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443177/original/file-20220128-25-12cb7bg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443177/original/file-20220128-25-12cb7bg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Thomas/University of Stirling</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>In our paper, we describe how to cultivate this species, from isolation in the lab to creating young tree saplings with roots inoculated with this symbiotic fungus. These trees can then be planted at scale in suitable climate zones ranging from Costa Rica to the US. As the tree and fungus’s partnership matures, they start to produce these incredible mushrooms packed with protein. </p>
<p>The agriculture on cleared forested land is dominated by pastoral beef production where around <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919212000942">4.76-6.99kg of protein per hectare</a> per year is produced. But, if this system was replaced with planting trees hosting the milk cap fungus, the same parcel of land could produce <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969721063798">7.31kg of protein</a> every year. The mushrooms can be consumed fresh, processed or the protein content can be extracted to produce other food items. </p>
<p>This would lead to more food production, with all the benefits forests bring and without the environmental burdens of intensive farming such as fertiliser, water use or the growing of additional feed. Beef farming contributes to climate change by emitting greenhouse gases, but as these fungus-inoculated trees grow, they draw down carbon from the atmosphere, helping in our fight against the climate crisis. So, as well as producing more food, the process can also enhance biodiversity, aid conservation, act as a carbon sink for greenhouses gases and help stimulate economic development in rural areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of a burning deforested piece of land next to a strip of rainforest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443156/original/file-20220128-15-1biz3ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5447%2C3639&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443156/original/file-20220128-15-1biz3ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443156/original/file-20220128-15-1biz3ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443156/original/file-20220128-15-1biz3ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443156/original/file-20220128-15-1biz3ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443156/original/file-20220128-15-1biz3ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443156/original/file-20220128-15-1biz3ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forests are still being bulldozed to make way for agricultural land for beef production.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-deforestation-rainforest-being-removed-1274894119">Richard Whitcombe/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Mexcio, harvesting is often a family activity where fungi are traded informally or exchanged for goods and in neighbouring Guatemala, the blue milk cap is listed as one of the most popular edible mushrooms. So there is economic potential and community empowerment at a smaller local scale as well as trading opportunities for national and international corporations.</p>
<p>We believe this approach is cheaper – or more cost effective – than beef farming. But this is a new technology and like all new innovations, support is needed. This means further research and proper financial investment to develop the technology to a point where agribusinesses feel confident to invest at scale.</p>
<p>But even with support, there must also be demand for the end product. Doubtless with health and environmental concerns in mind, the proportion of meat eaters who have reduced or limited the amount of meat they consume has <a href="https://www.mintel.com/press-centre/food-and-drink/plant-based-push-uk-sales-of-meat-free-foods-shoot-up-40-between-2014-19">risen from 28% in 2017 to 39% in 2019</a>, according to market research. And sales of meat-free foods are expected to reach £1.1 billion by 2024. Clearly there’s a market, as ordinary people endeavour to do their bit for the planet. With so much at stake we must urgently pursue the promising options that fungi provide. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul W Thomas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Inoculating trees with an edible fungi can produce more protein per hectare than pasture-raised beef, while reforesting, storing carbon and restoring biodiversity.Paul W Thomas, Honorary Professor Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1746442022-01-11T14:13:23Z2022-01-11T14:13:23ZMeat and dairy gobble up farming subsidies worldwide, which is bad for your health and the planet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440243/original/file-20220111-17-eo2x13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6016%2C4016&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cow-barn-cattle-farm-fog-573703810">Radanasta/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The global food system is in disarray. Animal agriculture is a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/">major driver</a> of global heating, and as many as <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(19)30041-8/fulltext">12 million deaths</a> from heart disease, stroke, cancers and diabetes are each year connected to <a href="https://globalnutritionreport.org/reports/2021-global-nutrition-report/health-and-environmental-impacts-of-diets-worldwide/">eating the wrong things</a>, like too much red and processed meat and too few fruits and vegetables. Unless the world can slash the amount of animal products in its food system and embrace more plant-based diets, there is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0594-0">little chance</a> of avoiding dangerous levels of climate change and mounting public health problems.</p>
<p>Agricultural subsidies help prop up a food system that is neither healthy nor sustainable. Worldwide, more than <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/2d810e01-en/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/2d810e01-en">US$200 billion</a> of public money (that is, money collected through taxes) is given to farmers every year in direct transfers – usually with the intention of supporting national food production and supply. </p>
<p>This might not be a problem in itself – after all, we all need to eat. But the way governments provide subsidies at the moment exacerbates the health and environmental issues of food production. That’s one of the findings of a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27645-2">new study</a> published in Nature Communications by my colleague <a href="https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/people/florian-freund/">Florian Freund</a> and <a href="https://www.ndph.ox.ac.uk/team/marco-springmann">me</a>. </p>
<h2>Agricultural subsidies in action</h2>
<p>According to our analysis, about two-thirds of all agricultural transfer payments worldwide come without any strings attached. Farmers can use them to grow what they like. </p>
<p>In practice, this means every fifth dollar is used to raise meat, and every tenth dollar to make dairy products – the kinds of foods farmers have grown used to producing but which emit disproportionate amounts of <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaq0216">greenhouse gas emissions</a>, and which are also linked to dietary risks such as <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10408398.2017.1392288">heart disease</a> and certain <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ijc.31198">cancers</a>. </p>
<p>Farmers use another third of these payments to grow staple crops such as wheat and maize, and crops used for producing sugar and oil. These are foods that are already produced and consumed in large quantities and that, if anything, should be <a href="https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/eat-lancet-commission-summary-report/">limited</a> in a healthy and sustainable diet. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tractor harvests sugar cane using a threshing machine." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440244/original/file-20220111-27-pw5f08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440244/original/file-20220111-27-pw5f08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440244/original/file-20220111-27-pw5f08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440244/original/file-20220111-27-pw5f08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440244/original/file-20220111-27-pw5f08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440244/original/file-20220111-27-pw5f08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440244/original/file-20220111-27-pw5f08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sugar cane harvest – plenty more where that came from.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sugar-cane-hasvest-plantation-1083651095">Mailsonpignata/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Less than a quarter of transfer payments are used to grow the kinds of foods that are good for <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/46/23357">human health and the environment</a>, and which a healthy and sustainable food system would need much more of: fruits, vegetables, legumes and nuts. </p>
<p>Based on this breakdown, it’s clear there is plenty of room for improving how governments and farmers issue and spend agricultural subsidies. We decided to look at alternatives, and compare how they might work in the real world.</p>
<p><strong>Where agricultural subsidies go</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph depicting the distribution of subsidy payments per commodity in OECD and non-OECD countries." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440210/original/file-20220111-17-1f73nxf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440210/original/file-20220111-17-1f73nxf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440210/original/file-20220111-17-1f73nxf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440210/original/file-20220111-17-1f73nxf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440210/original/file-20220111-17-1f73nxf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440210/original/file-20220111-17-1f73nxf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440210/original/file-20220111-17-1f73nxf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2017 data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27645-2">Nature Communications</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reforming subsidies</h2>
<p>We combined an economic model which tracked the knock-on effects of altering subsidies on food production and the food people eat with an environmental one which compared changes in resource use and greenhouse gas emissions – plus a health model which measured the consequences for diet-related illnesses. </p>
<p>In one scenario, we made all subsidy payments to farms conditional on them producing healthy and sustainable foods. Farmers would still be free to grow other crops and foods, just not with the support of subsidies. We found that fruit and vegetable production would go up substantially – by about 20% in developed countries. This would translate into people eating half a portion of fruit and veg more per day. At the same time, meat and dairy production would go down by 2% – shaving off 2% from agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>However, we also found that the economy could suffer if all subsidies were used in this way, drawing in workers to farming from more productive parts of the economy. </p>
<p>Fortunately, there are ways to avoid this. Either make half of all subsidies conditional on growing healthy and sustainable foods, or combine these conditional subsidies with a reduction in the overall amount of payments – tying them, for example, to an amount informed by a country’s GDP or population. Each of those options would result in a healthier food supply and less greenhouse gas emissions without reducing economic output.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-humble-legume-could-be-the-answer-to-europes-fertiliser-addiction-159067">Why the humble legume could be the answer to Europe's fertiliser addiction</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Policymakers in the EU are currently aiming to reduce the environmental impacts of subsidy payments while those in the UK are considering a public money for public goods approach, which pays farmers to provide things like clean water, wildlife habitat and a nutritious food supply. Sadly, proposals of this kind are often <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jan/06/englands-farmers-to-be-paid-to-rewild-land">watered down</a> when they’re <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-will-eu-common-agricultural-policy-reforms-help-tackle-climate-change">implemented</a>.</p>
<p>Our analysis proposes something which is largely missing from current plans: changing the mix of food production. What food farms choose to grow has a greater effect on the <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaq0216">environment</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10408398.2017.1392288">health</a> than how it is grown. Redirecting subsidies towards the production of healthy and sustainable food should be an essential part of reforming agriculture worldwide.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 10,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Springmann received funding from Wellcome Trust and the Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition (GLOPAN) during the conduct of the study and writing the article. </span></em></p>Vegetables, fruits and legumes are nutritious and sustainable – but subsidies overwhelmingly neglect them.Marco Springmann, Senior Researcher, Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1717072021-11-12T16:44:46Z2021-11-12T16:44:46ZSmart labels and allergy sensors – how to make sure the future of food is ethical<p>Imagine you’re shopping in your local supermarket. You pull out an app on your phone and scan a product. Instantly, it flashes with a personalised risk rating of how likely it is to set off your allergies.</p>
<p>In the next aisle, smart packaging on a ready meal updates you in real time with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-footprints-are-hard-to-understand-heres-what-you-need-to-know-144317">carbon footprint</a> of your food’s journey. But once you take it home, the label changes to display a live warning: allergens were detected unexpectedly in the production factory, and your food may have to be recalled.</p>
<p>How much extra energy would be used to power such a system? Who makes sure the app is taking care of your personal medical information? And what if an accidental alert meant you were told to throw away your food when it was perfectly edible, or resulted in a small business being blacklisted by supermarkets?</p>
<p>These are just some of the questions that will require our attention if we manage to connect up the vast amounts of data flowing through the food system by storing and sharing it in systems called <a href="https://www.qlarion.com/insights/what-is-a-data-trust/#:%7E:text=A%20data%20trust%20is%20a,new%20shared%20repository%20of%20data.">data trusts</a>.</p>
<p>As part of a working group on ethics in <a href="http://imagination.lancaster.ac.uk/project/considering-the-ethical-implications-of-digital-collaboration-in-the-food-sector/">food data trusts</a>, my colleagues and I have been <a href="https://www.cell.com/patterns/fulltext/S2666-3899(21)00183-5">developing new methods</a> to help food technology organisations ensure systems like these meet <a href="https://theconversation.com/data-science-education-lacks-a-much-needed-focus-on-ethics-164372">ethical standards</a>.</p>
<p>Food production is the <a href="https://www.fdf.org.uk/fdf/business-insights-and-economics/facts-and-stats/">largest sub-sector</a> in UK manufacturing, and currently the subject of much scrutiny. In the face of climate change, there is increasing pressure to make supply chains more efficient and cost-effective, as well as to promote sustainability and reduce waste: objectives that new technologies are helping to achieve.</p>
<p>These technologies will allow us to <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8939250/">collect data</a> on our food like never before: from <a href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/js/2018/8672769/">sensors</a> which track every moment of a crop’s life cycle; to instant temperature readings on chilled or frozen meat deliveries; to detailed records of what moves on and off supermarket shelves and when. </p>
<p>Sharing this data between different parts of the food supply chain, which may involve many organisations, could bring enormous sustainability benefits: especially if we can then use advanced technologies such as AI <a href="https://theconversation.com/artificial-intelligence-is-now-part-of-our-everyday-lives-and-its-growing-power-is-a-double-edged-sword-169449">prediction</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-shop-assistants-get-ready-for-a-world-where-you-cant-tell-humans-and-chatbots-apart-171522">recommendation</a> algorithms to pinpoint customer needs and reduce waste even further.</p>
<p>Many organisations are wary about this data sharing, especially if it might reveal private business information. This is where data trusts come in. The idea is that their <a href="https://www.foodchain.ac.uk/digital-collaboration-in-the-food-and-drink-production-supply-chain-report/">trustworthy infrastructure</a>, bolstered by strict policy and legal agreements, will allow companies to be sure that private data will not be seen by, for example, their competitors. But data trusts are likely to also present their own set of unforeseen problems.</p>
<h2>Our research</h2>
<p>Our working group assessing data trusts, funded by the <a href="https://www.foodchain.ac.uk/">Internet of Food Things</a> project and the <a href="https://www.ai3sd.org/">AI3SD</a> project, is made up of experts from many different specialities including computer science, law and design. Before we could start thinking about data ethics, we had to make sure we all understood each other’s language. </p>
<p>Our first task was to create a glossary of terms to tease out the ways in which we use language differently. For example, when we talk about <a href="https://theconversation.com/artificial-intelligence-governments-see-huge-business-potential-but-ignore-the-downsides-164645">AI</a>, we may be imagining the super-smart intelligence of science fiction, new forms of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-machine-learning-is-helping-us-fine-tune-climate-models-to-reach-unprecedented-detail-165818">machine learning</a> that do tasks we cannot, or simply the algorithms that already support many of our day-to-day activities. </p>
<p>Building a common understanding helped us move onto analysing the ethics of data trusts: which do not yet currently exist. By the time they do, it may be too late to correct any major problems they cause.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person stands at the end of a supermarket aisle" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431712/original/file-20211112-15340-sjhsct.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431712/original/file-20211112-15340-sjhsct.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431712/original/file-20211112-15340-sjhsct.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431712/original/file-20211112-15340-sjhsct.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431712/original/file-20211112-15340-sjhsct.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431712/original/file-20211112-15340-sjhsct.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431712/original/file-20211112-15340-sjhsct.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Our research imagines the future of supermarkets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Supermarket_full_of_goods.jpg">Lars Frantzen/Wikimedia</a></span>
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<p>This is an example of the “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733317301622">Collingridge dilemma</a>”. This philosophical quandary suggests that in the early stages of a new technology, not enough is known about its potentially harmful consequences. By the time these consequences become clear, it may be too expensive – or too late – to control the technology. </p>
<p>One way to get around this is to map out these harmful consequences by <a href="https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Design_Fiction_as_World_Building/4746964">imagining</a>, in great detail, what a future which includes these technologies might look like. This is what we do in the research method called “<a href="https://medium.com/digital-experience-design/design-fiction-32094e035cd7">design fiction</a>”, where we create real objects representing a fictional future. </p>
<p>Some of the things we’ve created include minutes from a board meeting that never took place, a clip from a documentary reporting on something that hasn’t happened, a website showcasing a non-existent allergy alert app, and smart packaging that simulates the shopping experience depicted earlier. </p>
<p>In creating these, we tried to consider all the different people who might be positively or negatively affected in the future world to which our objects belonged: including not only decision-makers at large supermarket chains but also smaller suppliers, consumers and workers. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>The next step was to use these objects to delve even deeper into what challenges they might present. We used a set of cards called the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23299460.2021.1880112">Moral-IT deck</a>, which were developed to evaluate the ethics of technology. </p>
<p>These cards helped lead a discussion with experts about possible harms created by the use of new food systems. For instance, we considered whether smaller food businesses might be unfairly excluded from supermarkets due to not being able to afford the myriad of sensors needed to hook their products up to AI-enabled prediction systems. </p>
<p>Although we focused on the food sector, these methods can be carried over to analyse other areas where new technology is being introduced, such as adding <a href="http://imagination.lancaster.ac.uk/project/participatory-policies-for-iot-at-the-edge-ethics-p-pitee/">smart bins</a> (that sense when rubbish collection is needed) to public spaces. Our next step is to use what we’ve learnt to create a formal framework guiding people towards informed decisions around how to ethically introduce new technology.</p>
<p>We hope that, through using new, creative methods to analyse and imagine future technologies, we can help people create technological systems that are fairer and more ethical.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171707/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Naomi Jacobs receives funding from the UKRI Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the Expanding Excellence in England (E3) project Beyond Imagination, funded by Research England. </span></em></p>Researchers are looking into the potential technological threats to data safety and privacy from the smart supermarkets of the future.Naomi Jacobs, Lecturer in Design Policy, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1659872021-09-14T16:11:11Z2021-09-14T16:11:11ZAfrican farmers and agribusinesses need fair access to markets in face of climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420049/original/file-20210908-13-16jx5l3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Agricultural commodity prices spiked after cyclone Kenneth had hit northern Mozambique in 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Southern and Eastern Africa face the twin challenges of growing agricultural production to meet food demand while adapting to extreme weather. And climate change makes addressing these challenges extremely urgent.</p>
<p>Southern Africa is <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-latest-assessment-on-global-warming-means-for-southern-africa-104644">a climate change hotspot</a>. Eastern Africa is projected to still have good average rainfall, although temperatures will increase and floodings become more frequent.</p>
<p>There is huge potential for meeting these twin challenges across Eastern and Southern Africa, where there are in fact <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/5f43657bf186f763e265c86b/1598252427643/CCRED+WP+2_2020+Southern+African+Market+Observatory.pdf">good soils and water availability</a> in many countries. </p>
<p>However, markets are not working well, especially for small and medium-scale farmers and agri-businesses which are at the heart of inclusive food value chains. These participants are often not receiving fair prices for their produce due to the way markets have been working, including powerful interests, high transport costs and poor facilities such as those for storage. </p>
<p>Analysing market failures requires information. Yet, poor market information has made the ability to monitor market prices in close to real time difficult across much of the region. Up-to-date information on food prices is critical to understanding agricultural food systems in the region and for collectively planning responses. Information on food prices should be accompanied by other market information relating to production and market structures.</p>
<p>To address this, the University of Johannesburg’s <a href="https://www.competition.org.za/">Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development</a> has launched a <a href="https://www.competition.org.za/marketobservatory">market observatory</a>. This is one part of supporting smaller producers in negotiating fair prices and in identifying measures to make markets work better across the region. </p>
<h2>Markets not working well</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i3907e/i3907e.pdf">Volatility over time</a>, and very <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i3907e/i3907e.pdf">large price differentials</a> between areas in Eastern and Southern Africa for key crops such as soybeans and maize, reflect markets that are not working well for producers or buyers such as agro-processors. </p>
<p>The price differentials point to potential local market power being exploited and big profit margins being earned by large traders. The spread of larger traders across the region is meant to have heralded more efficient markets. However, market outcomes and high levels of concentration at various levels of supply chains indicate that there are also major concerns about market power.</p>
<p>For example, over the past 12 months, the patchy data supported by anecdotal information indicate that <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/5f43657bf186f763e265c86b/1598252427643/CCRED+WP+2_2020+Southern+African+Market+Observatory.pdf">soybean prices</a> have been extremely high in Dar es Salaam and Nairobi (above US$900 per tonne). This while there is great potential to supply from areas within Tanzania as well as from Uganda, Malawi and Zambia. </p>
<p>Prices in areas such as <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/5f43657bf186f763e265c86b/1598252427643/CCRED+WP+2_2020+Southern+African+Market+Observatory.pdf">Zambia and southwest Tanzania</a> were below $400/t in May after the harvest and around $500 in Malawi. The difference between the producing areas and the cities is consistent with farmers getting offered unfairly low prices by large buyers. Large buyers are taking advantage of the poor storage and the lack of other market options available for the farmers. Farmers have to accept the low prices being offered.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>The transport costs to the main urban markets should not account for more than $100/t of the difference between $400 or $500 and $900, meaning that massive profits have been made by the “middle-men” or traders. In competitive markets, trading margins would reflect reasonable costs and not super profits.</p>
<p>These profit margins are at the expense of farmers, who receive low prices, while high prices are charged to agribusinesses and consumers in urban areas. This undermines production in the region. It also contributes to high food prices and compounds reliance on imports.</p>
<p>This especially affects smaller market participants. Large and integrated processors and traders have their own transporters and infrastructure, and better market information. </p>
<p>Smaller market participants are charged massively inflated transport costs where they look to bypass traders and organise their own sales. This undermines effective market integration across the region. In <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/611504af8d2b162b32f8637e/1628767408243/Price+tracker+4+DRAFT_Final.pdf">our research</a>, market participants in Malawi indicated that those looking to export from Malawi were being charged as much as three times what were reasonable rates. </p>
<p>There are also high rates being set by local transporters within some countries. This suggests market power in transport and trading, including on the part of influential large trucking companies in some countries. Some market participants in Tanzania have resorted to placing loads on buses in recent months, incurring very high costs and yet still receiving the product at much lower than the prevailing prices in Dar es Salaam.</p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>Smaller producers and agribusinesses are integral in growing production and ensuring the fairer and more competitive markets required for the benefits to be widely shared and sustainable. Small to medium sized farms and agribusinesses have been growing strongly in many countries yet face many disadvantages in markets, especially relative to large multinational trading groups. </p>
<p>Action, including market monitoring, effective competition enforcement and investment in the necessary infrastructure and support, is required to shape markets to work better. </p>
<p>Steps to support smaller producers are important in any event. However, the climate emergency means they are imperative and that the time to act is running out fast. The extreme weather currently in the Americas is a warning not to be complacent. </p>
<p>The El Niño state brings drought in southern Africa while inducing heavy rainfall and floods in Eastern Africa. The 2015/16 period saw the worst drought in Southern Africa for around 30 years. This led to maize shortages and prices jumping in countries such as <a href="https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2018/EGU2018-6979.pdf">South Africa, Mozambique and Malawi</a>. Extreme weather patterns also contributed to price volatility in subsequent years with, for example, <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/ca7638en/ca7638en.pdf">cyclones in Mozambique</a>, poor rainfall and drought concerns in 2019 seeing prices spike again.</p>
<p>Adaptation to the effects of climate change means supporting increased production, such as through irrigation, coupled with intra-regional trade across Eastern and Southern Africa. According to the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#SPM">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment</a>, while Southern Africa will experience less rainfall and more droughts, Central to Eastern Africa is projected to maintain precipitation levels, on average. When extreme weather hits one part of the region there will likely still be good harvests from other areas.</p>
<p>Urgent measures are required to support agricultural practices for farmers to adapt to climate change and increase production while ensuring markets work effectively across the region. The good news is that the region has the potential to substantially improve its resilience and increase earnings for farmers and jobs in the related value chains. This requires fair market prices and support for investments in areas including irrigation, production, storage and processing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grace Nsomba is affiliated with the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development at the University of Johannesburg.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Roberts is affiliated with the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development at the University of Johannesburg and the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose at University College London</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ntombifuthi Tshabalala is affiliated with the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development at the University of Johannesburg.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Namhla Landani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Small and medium-scale farmers and agri-businesses in Southern and Eastern Africa, which are at the heart of inclusive food value chains, are not receiving fair prices for their produce.Grace Nsomba, Associate Researcher at Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of JohannesburgSimon Roberts, Professor of Economics and Lead Researcher, Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, UJ, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.