tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/future-18372/articles
Future – The Conversation
2023-12-14T13:38:10Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/218838
2023-12-14T13:38:10Z
2023-12-14T13:38:10Z
Hope brings happiness, builds grit and gives life meaning. Here’s how to cultivate it
<p>What is hope? In its simplest form, hope is about the future. </p>
<p>There are three necessary elements to hope: having a desire or a wish for something that is valuable, and the belief that it is possible to attain this wish, even when it seems uncertain. Then we have to trust that we have the resources, both internally and externally, to attain this important desire, even when we experience setbacks along the way.</p>
<p>For example, I may hope that I will retire in a peaceful coastal town to pursue my hobby of painting (desire) and I believe that it is possible, although I will have to plan carefully (trust in internal resources). I also trust that I will settle in the community and make friends who share my interest in painting (trust in external resources), even though it may be difficult at first. </p>
<p>When we hope, we have a vision of imaginary futures and we anticipate specific outcomes. In doing so, we choose to focus on possible good things that may happen, even when faced by uncertainty. </p>
<p>Hope has several further dimensions. It involves our thoughts, because we assess the future and the likelihood that we will attain what we wish for. In the process we are taking in information and using it to reach our goals. Hope is also about experiencing positive emotions. It can further be a motivational force, propelling us forward. </p>
<p>Hope may have a strong <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-24412-4_6">spiritual element</a> – many, if not most, faiths place importance on having trust in a higher power that valuable outcomes may be attained. This trust can maintain hope in difficult times. </p>
<p>Hope also has a social dimension, in the sense that people may share hopes, and have hopes for others. Our sense of hope may further be influenced by our <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11482-021-09967-x">context</a>, and how others define what is possible and desirable in the future. This aspect of hope is important when we consider our expectations of national and international futures. </p>
<p>Overall, hope is a universal human phenomenon, studied from <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-24412-4_6">several disciplines</a>, for example, philosophy, theology, psychology, sociology and economics. In recent times, we are increasingly incorporating insights from all these fields to understand the complex phenomenon of hope.</p>
<p>In studying hope, it has been measured in different ways. Most <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-24412-4_6">psychological studies</a> have used existing questionnaires in the discipline.</p>
<h2>How hope affects our lives</h2>
<p>How we think and feel about the future has an effect on us in the present. </p>
<p>Overall, hope is beneficial to our well-being. Hope encourages us to persist, even though we may be facing setbacks. Hopeful individuals are more likely to frame difficulties as challenges, rather than threats. This enables them to experience setbacks as less stressful and draining. For example, research indicates that hope is negatively associated with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352250X22002287">depression</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352250X23001094?via%3Dihub">anxiety</a>.</p>
<p>This means that people who hold higher levels of hope will be less likely to experience symptoms of depression and anxiety. Hope has been linked to many other positive outcomes, including higher levels of psychological well-being, life satisfaction, happiness, and meaning in life. </p>
<p>The importance of hope was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. Several <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352250X23000040?via%3Dihub">studies</a> found that people who had higher levels of hope were less likely to experience high levels of stress, depression and anxiety. </p>
<p>The research that I am involved in, the <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-24412-4">International Hope Barometer Project</a>, investigated hope, coping, stress, well-being and personal growth among participants from 11 countries during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. </p>
<p>Most reported moderate to high levels of hope, although at the same time they experienced moderate levels of perceived stress, characterised by feelings of unpredictability, being out of control, and overload. Hope and well-being were primarily related to being able to reframe negative events in a positive manner, accepting and actively coping with everyday challenges, and finding relief and comfort in religious faith and practice.</p>
<p>Hope is not only beneficial to us on an individual level, but to society at large. Hopeful people are more likely to engage in proactive behaviours that could benefit the community. In the context of global and local turmoil, collective hope is particularly important in maintaining momentum towards the future. </p>
<h2>Learning to cultivate hope</h2>
<p>Hope can be strengthened and enhanced to some extent. Until now, most research has focused on how hope can be promoted in psychotherapeutic and medical settings. Several hope-focused interventions have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101509">developed</a> in these contexts, with promising results. </p>
<p>On a more general level, programmes to strengthen hope among young people have been developed. One, referred to as <a href="https://www.unil.ch/scpf/en/home/menuinst/the-center.html">Positive Futures</a>, developed in Switzerland, aims to assist youth to recognise and cultivate positive things, experiences and emotions in life and foster self-worth. It further aims to develop desirable long-term future scenarios and promote hope through voluntary and meaningful projects. </p>
<p>On a more practical level, I believe it is possible to nurture hope through attending to the way we appraise difficulties. Can we see them as challenges rather than insurmountable obstacles? We can also consciously draw on our individual and collective resources and actively look for the good things around us, within the chaos we may be experiencing. </p>
<p>Sharing our hopes with people close to us can further strengthen hope through highlighting shared goals and wishes for the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tharina Guse receives funding from the National Research Foundation. </span></em></p>
People who hold higher levels of hope will be less likely to experience symptoms of depression. Shared hopes are also important for expectations of national and international futures.
Tharina Guse, Professor of Psychology and Head of Department of Psychology, University of Pretoria
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/218426
2023-11-29T00:03:08Z
2023-11-29T00:03:08Z
What are young Australians most worried about? Finding affordable housing, they told us
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561724/original/file-20231127-29-kf67ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5619%2C3743&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-man-looking-sunrise-321921797">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many of us were anxious and fearful during the COVID pandemic, but we’ve probably started to feel a lot better since lockdowns have stopped and life looks more like it did previously.</p>
<p>But new data shows that hasn’t been the case for Australia’s young people.</p>
<p>Our wide-ranging survey of youth across the country reveals many young people fear they’ll never be able to own a home and will end up worse-off than their parents.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/listening-to-youth-voices-was-missing-in-the-covid-19-pandemic-response-214106">Listening to youth voices was missing in the COVID-19 pandemic response</a>
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<h2>Affordable housing is their top concern</h2>
<p>Data from the 2023 <a href="https://doi.org/10.26180/24087186.v2">Australian Youth Barometer</a>, which surveyed 571 young Australians aged 18-24 and interviewed 30 more, highlight young people’s interconnected and confronting attitudes about their futures.</p>
<p>In this third iteration of the annual survey, we expected improvements in young people’s attitudes following the worst of the pandemic.</p>
<p>But the pressures have intensified following increases to costs of living and multiple disruptions to young lives, leading to anxieties about their future.</p>
<p>The clear majority of young people (70%) said affordable housing was their top concern (15% increase since last year), while 51% nominated employment opportunities (up 9%) as the second. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1724947893780406553"}"></div></p>
<p>Concern about affordable housing is unsurprising. The fear is real. </p>
<p>Aside from skyrocketing rents and house prices, many young people face the prospect of having nowhere to live. According to 2021 Census data, almost <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/analysis/brief/what-are-real-costs-housing-crisis-australias-young-people">one in four</a> of all people experiencing homelessness (23%) are 12 to 24 years of age. </p>
<p>A 23-year-old woman from the ACT, who’s living in a caravan she doesn’t own, told us housing was her biggest concern:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m very lucky to have it [the caravan]. And if it gets taken away from me, I’m back out on the streets again […] I need to be able to shower, have a place to get ready, eat, all that. That’s really the only concern in life. </p>
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<p>Seeing a pathway to affordable accommodation is all the more challenging given young people’s current circumstances. </p>
<p>Some 90% of those surveyed experienced financial difficulties in the past year, a continuation of last year’s trend. Around one in five (21%) experienced food insecurity.</p>
<p>Surviving <em>now</em> is a concern, let alone affording a roof tomorrow. Just 35% of young people feel confident that they’ll be able to afford a place to live in the next year.</p>
<h2>Feeling unprepared for the future</h2>
<p>Only 52% of young people we surveyed feel their education has prepared them for the future</p>
<p>Three issues arise here. First, some young people are critical of education in their schools and post school institutions. </p>
<p>One 23-year-old woman from South Australia said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The learning system in Australia is absolutely appalling is what I have to say about it. It is so behind, it is so backdated, it has not kept up with the times, their learning ways are just inaccurate, and a waste of everyone’s time […] It wasn’t catered to what would be best for learning in the classroom, it was just, ‘This is what the system is, that’s what we’re doing’.</p>
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<p>Second, there is a growing awareness that in a competitive labour market, greater qualifications might not lead to desirable, secure jobs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A teenage girl studies in class" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Only around half of the young people surveyed believed education had prepared them for the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/high-school-student-taking-notes-book-1958383675">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The third is understanding what is required to get that desirable work. Upheavals to the workforce, including technological developments such as automation, have led to questioning what skills, knowledge and experience are required for job futures that are decreasingly knowable. </p>
<p>Other factors such as climate change (the third top issue requiring immediate action) and geopolitical insecurity amplify uncertainty about the future. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-young-people-are-concerned-about-climate-change-but-it-can-drive-them-to-take-action-171300">Yes, young people are concerned about climate change. But it can drive them to take action</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>Challenges to youth mental health</h2>
<p>The challenges outlined above intersect. One 20-year-old woman from Queensland told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m just worried that it’ll be harder for me to get a job from my course or whatever, or that if stuff like cost of living and everything keeps going up, no matter if I get a job, I wouldn’t be able to, like, stay on top of that, as well. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Only 52% of young Australians think that it is likely or extremely likely that they will achieve financial security in the future.</p>
<p>More young Australians think they will be financially worse off than their parents (from 53% in 2022 to 61% in 2023). Most (97%) felt worried, anxious or pessimistic in the past year (an increase of 14% on last year’s data). </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-teach-children-about-climate-change-inspire-hope-and-take-action-to-change-the-future-174036">How to teach children about climate change, inspire hope and take action to change the future</a>
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<p>Just over a quarter (26%) characterised their mental health as poor or very poor (up 8% on last year). Nearly one in four (24%) received mental health care in the past year.</p>
<p>Young people see their health and wellbeing as interconnected to other factors, such as affordable accommodation, jobs and food security. A 24-year-old man from New South Wales said that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Financial independence is kind of a healthy thing. I think that knowing that you could afford your rent, knowing that you can afford food […] knowing that you have a roof over your head is something that I measure for healthiness.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Attitudes that are here to stay?</h2>
<p>Conditions for young people typically deteriorate during economic downturns. The question is whether the trends above reflect a tremor or a quake. </p>
<p>We saw during previous recessions how young people were disproportionately and negatively affected compared to older age groups. That tremor is already visible, despite relatively <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">good</a> employment figures in recent years (which insufficiently capture the quality, security and desirability of current employment). Even so, youth unemployment rate has increased to 8.7%.</p>
<p>So are these attitudes likely to remain? </p>
<p>A youthquake is typically defined as a marked <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/youthquake">shift</a> in cultural norms brought about by changing values, tastes and attitudes of young people. Such shifts are associated with wider social, economic and political seismic upheavals. </p>
<p>Our findings suggest that conditions for the next youthquake might have begun.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218426/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
We thought after the worst of a global pandemic, young people’s outlook for the future might have improved. Our survey shows they’ve actually gotten worse.
Lucas Walsh, Professor and Director of the Centre for Youth Policy and Education Practice, Monash University
Blake Cutler, Researcher and PhD Candidate in Education, Monash University
Thuc Bao Huynh, Research Assistant, Monash University
Zihong Deng, Research Fellow, Monash University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/212174
2023-09-18T12:20:35Z
2023-09-18T12:20:35Z
Keeping your cool in a warming world: 8 steps to help manage eco-anxiety
<p>In a world facing <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">environmental challenges</a> <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/#">unprecedented in human history</a>, it’s no surprise that eco-anxiety – a pervasive worry about the current and<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/586541/the-uninhabitable-earth-by-david-wallace-wells/"> future state of our planet</a> – has become an <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/oxford-reveals-word-of-the-year-2019-heres-why-we-should-be-very-very-concerned/articleshow/72332446.cms?from=mdr">increasingly prevalent</a> <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-anxiety-and-mental-illness/">mental health issue.</a></p>
<p>As people witness the devastating <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/">impacts of climate change</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/climate/trees-tropical-forests-deforestation.html">deforestation</a> and loss of <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/biodiversity">biodiversity</a>, it’s only natural to feel <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/12/health/eco-anxiety-harmful-for-health-wellness/index.html">overwhelmed and disheartened</a>. I happen to live in Phoenix, Arizona, a “<a href="https://www.azcentral.com/restricted/?return=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fopinion%2Fop-ed%2Fphilboas%2F2023%2F07%2F14%2Fphoenix-summer-heat-intense-not-apocalypse%2F70414067007%2F">heat apocalypse</a>” city with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/06/01/phoenix-water-shortage-population-growth/">dwindling water supplies</a>, so I have some skin in the game.</p>
<p>But amid doom-and-gloom predictions, there is hope. As a therapist and clinical social work professor, I have seen firsthand how paralyzing <a href="https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/915145">eco-anxiety</a> can be, and I’m dedicated to finding solutions. Here are a few evidence-based tips to tackle your climate woes. </p>
<h2>What is eco-anxiety?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.socialworktoday.com/archive/Spring23p10.shtml">Eco-anxiety</a> is a broad term that encompasses dread about environmental issues like pollution and disposal of toxic waste, as well as climate-specific fears, such as <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/climate-change-and-extreme-weather">increasing rates of extreme weather events</a> and <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html">sea-level rise</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19042461">Common symptoms</a> of eco-anxiety include worry about future generations, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101434">trouble sleeping or concentrating</a>, feelings of frustration and a sense of helplessness. These feelings can range from mild and fleeting concerns to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su12197836">deep despair</a>, panic attacks and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0004867411433951">obsessive-compulsive behaviors</a>.</p>
<p>Sound like you or someone you know? There are a number of tools that can help people cope with these feelings, summed up with the acronym UPSTREAM.</p>
<h2>Understanding and self-compassion</h2>
<p>Be kind to yourself and know that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00278-3">you are not alone in these feelings</a>.</p>
<p>Caring about the world you live in does not make you a “crazy” alarmist. In fact, <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/what-is-eco-anxiety-climate-change_uk_5d7f7c1ce4b03b5fc886cc16">growing numbers</a> of people across the globe feel the same way, with <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-beliefs-attitudes-spring-2023/toc/2/">two-thirds of Americans reporting</a> being at least somewhat worried about climate change in recent polls. </p>
<p>It makes sense that people would feel nervous when <a href="https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html">basic needs</a> like safety and shelter are threatened. Give yourself grace, because <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/women-s-mental-health-matters/201507/6-ways-stop-mentally-beating-yourself">beating yourself up</a> for these very valid feelings will only make you feel worse. </p>
<p><iframe id="kC3Mu" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kC3Mu/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Participate in the solution</h2>
<p>It can be hard to feel empowered when environmental harms are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00074">taking a toll on your mental health</a>, but the escalating global crisis still demands urgent attention. Instead of burying your head in the sand, use that mental discomfort as a catalyst for action.</p>
<p>Individual efforts to <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2018/12/27/35-ways-reduce-carbon-footprint/">reduce your carbon footprint</a> matter. <a href="https://youchangeearth.org/guides/join-a-climate-movement/">Joining larger movements</a> has the potential for even move significant impacts, as well as the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12144-022-02735-6">potential to buffer anxiety</a>, research shows. Volunteer your own unique passions, talents and skills to advocate for systemic changes that will benefit the planet and humanity. </p>
<p>When you feel anxious, use that energy as fuel for the fight. Harnessing eco-anxiety in this way can <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/what-is-eco-anxiety-climate-change_uk_5d7f7c1ce4b03b5fc886cc16">reduce your sense of powerlessness</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of young people plant trees along a street in Los Angeles. One is wearing an LA Conservation Corps T-shirt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547298/original/file-20230908-29-9pjvzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Local groups can take action in many ways, including helping to plant trees, educating residents or pressuring lawmakers to take action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/tree-planting-in-highland-park-plans-to-plant-100-arbutus-news-photo/129369806">Citizen of the Planet/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Self-talk</h2>
<p>The weight of the climate crisis is heavy enough as it is – don’t let your brain make you feel even worse.</p>
<p>When it comes to thinking about climate change, a realistic mindset puts us in a “just right” psychological Goldilocks zone. Don’t <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/terrifying-parallels-between-twin-threats-of-climate-change-and-nuclear-ruin/2017/10/27/bc6058d2-af74-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html">numb your psychic wounds</a>, but also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00048670701881603">don’t over-catastrophize</a>.</p>
<p>As a therapist, I often help clients identify and reframe <a href="https://www.therapistaid.com/worksheets/cognitive-distortions">unhelpful thinking patterns</a>. For example, while it is true that there are many environmental problems to grapple with, there is <a href="https://psychcentral.com/lib/cognitive-distortions-negative-thinking#discounting">also positive</a> news, so don’t discount it. Recognize and celebrate victories big and small.</p>
<h2>Trauma: Process it so you can heal</h2>
<p>The climate crisis has been conceptualized as a <a href="https://istss.org/public-resources/istss-briefing-papers/briefing-paper-global-climate-change-and-trauma">collective trauma</a>, and many individuals are struggling with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/15/arctic-solastalgia-climate-crisis-inuit-indigenous">eco-grief</a> from climate impacts that have already happened. Processing past trauma from events like weather disasters is a crucial step in enhancing your ability to cope with new experiences. </p>
<p>Even people who have <a href="https://theconversation.com/disaster-news-on-tv-and-social-media-can-trigger-post-traumatic-stress-in-kids-thousands-of-miles-away-heres-why-some-are-more-vulnerable-173627">not yet experienced</a> significant climate impacts directly may have <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781351025225-25/climate-trauma-stef-craps">signs of pre-traumatic stress</a>, a clinical term for the distress experienced in anticipation of a high-stress situation. A licensed mental health professional can help you process these emotions. </p>
<h2>Reduce isolation</h2>
<p>It’s no secret that having a strong social support network is a <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-secret-to-happiness-heres-some-advice-from-the-longest-running-study-on-happiness-2017100512543">key ingredient for happiness</a>. Surrounding yourself with compassionate, like-minded friends is also key to sustained efforts in doing your part to make a difference. </p>
<p>Consider joining or starting a <a href="https://www.climateandmind.org/climate-cafe">Climate Cafe</a> or similar group to talk about climate concerns. Visit a <a href="https://www.goodgriefnetwork.org/10steps/">10-step climate grief meeting</a>. Join a local environmental organization. Or simply call up a friend when you need a listening ear.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman holds a trash bag and directs others in a lakeshore clean up effort." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547300/original/file-20230908-17-uw41xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Community cleanup days can help reduce isolation and help you feel involved in making the world a better place.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/woman-volunteer-coordinator-speaks-to-the-group-royalty-free-image/1401403313">Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ecotherapy</h2>
<p>Get outdoors and enjoy nature.</p>
<p>Go for a quiet walk in the woods and observe nature all around you – it’s a Japanese practice for relaxation known as <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/forest-bathing-nature-walk-health">forest bathing</a>. Spend time <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/ecotherapy#techniques">gardening</a>. <a href="https://www.goodtherapy.org/learn-about-therapy/types/econature-therapy">Exercise outdoors</a> or otherwise spend time outdoors in a place that is relaxing and restorative for you.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547301/original/file-20230908-23-icx52a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gardening can relax the mind and put you in touch with nature. If you don’t have a yard, find a community garden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/group-of-volunteers-working-in-community-garden-royalty-free-image/1202939486">Compassionate Eye Foundation/Natasha Alipour Faridani via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Acts of self-care</h2>
<p>Self-care is paramount when it comes to managing the emotional toll of eco-anxiety.</p>
<p>Engaging in <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/shyness-is-nice/201403/seven-types-of-self-care-activities-for-coping-with-stress">self-care practices</a>, such as getting adequate sleep, eating healthy and having fun, helps us maintain a sense of balance in the face of overwhelming environmental concerns.</p>
<p>Remember what they teach you on airplanes – you should always put on your own oxygen mask before helping other passengers. Likewise, when we come from a place of wellness, we are <a href="https://www.climaterealitydfw.org/post/discouraged-frustrated-fearful-self-care-may-be-the-answer-to-burnout">better equipped to handle the stresses of eco-anxiety</a> and make a difference in this area.</p>
<h2>Mindfulness</h2>
<p>Because eco-grief is focused on the past and eco-anxiety is future-oriented, reconnecting to the present moment is a powerful way to combat both.</p>
<p>By cultivating <a href="https://www.mindful.org/jon-kabat-zinn-defining-mindfulness/">mindfulness</a> – a nonjudgmental awareness of the present moment – people can become more attuned to their thoughts, feelings and bodily sensations in response to eco-anxiety triggers. This heightened self-awareness helps people to acknowledge worries without becoming consumed by them.</p>
<p>Mindfulness practices, such as <a href="https://www.vox.com/even-better/23718805/beginner-guide-meditation-mindfulness-how-to-meditate">meditation </a>and <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/mind-and-mood/breath-meditation-a-great-way-to-relieve-stress">deep breathing</a>, provide a <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/meditation/in-depth/meditation/art-20045858">calming and grounding effect,</a> helping to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/acm.2008.0495">reduce stress</a> and alleviate feelings of helplessness. Moreover, mindfulness fosters a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/eco.2018.0061">deeper connection to nature </a>and an appreciation for the present moment, which can counteract the sense of despair associated with future environmental uncertainties.</p>
<p>In the face of eco-anxiety, these strategies can build resilience, reminding everyone that they have the power to shape a more sustainable and hopeful future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Magruder does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
A therapist shares advice for harnessing your stress over climate change and other environmental harms and putting it to work.
Karen Magruder, Assistant Professor of Practice in Social Work, University of Texas at Arlington
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/201598
2023-03-15T16:54:38Z
2023-03-15T16:54:38Z
What the stars do not have in store for you, according to your horoscope
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514680/original/file-20230310-20-wgi7gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C5%2C3479%2C1456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/droste-effect-background-abstract-design-concepts-1945585246">Shutterstock / Paolo Gallo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What is your sign? If you can answer that question, you are one <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-many-people-actually-believe-in-astrology-71192">of the 90% of adults who know your zodiac sign</a>. This is no surprise: the media, social networks and digital applications have all recently given a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20210205-why-astrology-is-so-popular-now">new push</a> to astrology. </p>
<p>In contrast, in a survey conducted in the United States, <a href="https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/570994/many-americans-don't-know-blood-type">only 57% of respondents</a> knew their blood type. What makes astrology so special?</p>
<h2>Astrology: the study of the stars to read the future</h2>
<p>Astrology is defined as the study of the position and movement of the stars as a means of predicting future events and finding out about people’s character. It originated in Babylon around the year 700-450 BC, when the 12 zodiac signs were established – with their interpretation focused on predicting events in the population. </p>
<p>It was in ancient Greece where predictions were transferred to individuals and were made based on the relative position of the stars at the time of birth. For example, the fact that a person is a Gemini means that, at the time of their birth, the Sun (projected in the sky) was in the position that aligned with the Gemini constellation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514922/original/file-20230313-20-uqtpyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The constellations of the zodiac are those in which the Sun is projected, in a straight line, along the Earth’s annual path.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Earth, when revolving around the Sun, makes its way through the different constellations. That path is known as the ecliptic plane. The sun sign, according to astrologers, represents our personality, self-perception, love compatibility, and basic preferences. Thus, studying the position of the celestial bodies can help us choose better friends, suitable love relationships, and make better decisions both professionally and financially.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514923/original/file-20230313-14-wpfhe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As the Earth travels around the Sun (blue ellipse), the Sun appears to move through the constellations of the zodiac (black line).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tartila/Shutterstock</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Three reasons to change your horoscope</h2>
<p>There are at least three reasons why your zodiac sign is most likely not what you think.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The Babylonians observed that <strong>there were 13 different constellations</strong> on the ecliptic plane; however, since they had a 12-month calendar dictated by the phases of the Moon, they decided to keep that value and used 12 constellations to name the zodiacal signs. The Babylonians deliberately left one out: Ophiuchus.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>All the constellations have different lengths</strong>; thus, they are in front of the Sun for variable amounts of time. For example, Leo spans 37 days while Scorpio spans only 7. This leaves many who claim to be Scorpio out of it, among other irregularities.</p></li>
<li><p>Due to the gravitational influence of the Sun and the Moon, the Earth wobbles slightly. Thus, the north pole deviates little by little, producing <strong>the precession effect</strong>. The result is an apparent change in the position of the constellations. Since the zodiac signs were established around 3,000 years ago, they have now moved about a month.</p>
<p>For someone who was born on June 1 three thousand years ago, the Sun would have been in the Gemini constellation. Currently, due to precession, on June 1 the Sun is not in Gemini but instead in the constellation Taurus.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>The most famous experiment in astrology: the Naninga Astrotest</h2>
<p>In 1996, <a href="https://skepsis.nl/astrology-test/">an experiment</a> was published in which 44 astrologers tried to match the birth data (date, time, and place) of seven anonymous people with their respective personality questionnaires. </p>
<p>The questionnaires were taken from the Berkeley University Personality Profile, and there were other questions also included suggested by the 44 astrologers. Aspects related to education, family, vocation, hobbies, personality, relationships, health, etc. were covered. </p>
<p>The astrologer who managed to correctly match the seven anonymous people’s birth data with their respective questionnaires would win $2,500. The results were disappointing for astrology: the most skilled astrologer had 3 correct matches out of 7, and half of the participants (22) did not have a single correct answer.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/318419a0">several</a> <a href="http://www.skepticalmedia.com/astrology/Scientific%20Inquiry%20into%20Astrology.pdf">articles</a> that put astrology and its predictive power to the test. Spoiler alert: <a href="https://philpapers.org/rec/DEAIAR">astrology fails every time</a>. An astrologer has the same chances of being right about aspects of our future as anyone else who bases their responses on chance.</p>
<p>There are people who decide on their partner based on the zodiac signs. Nevertheless, it seems that love is not dictated by the stars. A <a href="https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/love-not-in-the-stars/">study</a> carried out with 10 million marriages in England and Wales showed that there is no evidence of attraction (or rejection) between the different zodiac signs.</p>
<h2>Why astrology convinces so many</h2>
<p>Although it is well proven that astrology does not get things right, 27% of <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/lifestyle/survey-results/daily/2022/04/22/5ad3f/1">Americans</a> and 23% of the <a href="https://www.persee.fr/doc/rfsoc_0035-2969_2002_num_43_1_5471">French</a> believe in it, while 46% of <a href="https://www.gabinete.mx/images/reportes/2014/cultura/rep_horoscopos_2014.pdf">Mexicans</a> feel that their horoscope is something important in their lives.</p>
<p>Why is that? Astrology is an extremely profitable business. In the United States alone, astrology apps <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/astrology-industry-boomed-during-pandemic-online-entrepreneurs-2020-12?r=MX&IR=T">brought in $40 million</a> for their creators in 2019. This makes astrology be promoted even more online, and more and more people are getting into the market. </p>
<p>But the most interesting thing in all this is that humans are prone to errors and biases related with judgement and reasoning. This means that horoscopes fit into our mental mechanisms. Specifically, they rely on what we know as confirmation bias and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Barnum-Effect">the Barnum effect</a>.</p>
<p>Confirmation bias shows that prior beliefs and expectations can influence the selection, retention and evaluation of evidence; that is, we look for information that supports our ideas and ignore information that contradicts them.</p>
<p>For example, if our horoscope mentions that “it will be a day of strong contrasts” and we have a very calm day, we will simply ignore that prediction. However, if we really do have a day of contrasts, the first thing we will think is, “Of course, the horoscope warned me.”</p>
<p>The Barnum effect is a psychological phenomenon that consists of perceiving general and ambiguous descriptions (applicable to everyone) as if they were highly precise statements (made specifically for us).</p>
<h2>The horoscope of a serial killer</h2>
<p>In 1968, French psychologist Michel Gauquelin published a newspaper ad. In exchange for one’s name, address, date of birth and place of birth, he offered a 10-page personalised horoscope free of charge. A real bargain!</p>
<p>After receiving the horoscope, 94% of those who had sent in their information said they were satisfied with the results, with 90% even stating that their relatives had found the descriptions of their profile to be correct. Where is the catch? They had all received the same text! The horoscope sent out by Michel Gauquelin was that of a serial killer born in France on January 17, 1897.</p>
<p>Horoscopes promise certainty (“our fate is in the stars”). Therefore, it is not surprising that people usually turn to horoscopes in times of great uncertainty. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, searches <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=hor%C3%B3scopo">related to horoscopes</a> had their highest peak in years.</p>
<p>The aim of this article is not for people to stop reading horoscopes, because they can be an excellent source of entertainment and fun. Nonetheless, we must emphasise that there is no connection between the position of the stars and our lives. </p>
<p>And although horoscopes seem harmless fun, we must remember that French President <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-s-destiny-was-shaped-by-de-gaulle-s-personal-astrologer-711465.html">Charles de Gaulle</a>, Queen Elizabeth I of England and Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi all had astrologers to help them make decisions during their tenures.</p>
<p>Just remember that Cassius said to Brutus (in Julius Caesar, by William Shakespeare):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.</span></em></p>
Many people think their destiny is written on the stars. It is not.
Yersain Ely Keller de la Rosa, Maestro en Ciencias Bioquímicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)
Kevin Navarrete, Investigador en el laboratorio de Biología Molecular de bacterias patógenas, Instituto de Microbiología, Praga, Czech Academy of Sciences
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/195051
2022-11-29T17:33:23Z
2022-11-29T17:33:23Z
Cyborgs v ‘holdout humans’: what the world might be like if our species survives for a million years
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497596/original/file-20221128-20-r42rpe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C52%2C3834%2C2741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Homo Sapiens may survive.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/three-skulls-raw-showing-humans-evolution-133811405">JuliusKielaitis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most species are transitory. They go extinct, branch into new species or change over time due to random mutations and environmental shifts. A typical mammalian species can be expected to exist for <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/extinction-rates-9780198548294?cc=gb&lang=en&">a million years</a>. Modern humans, <em>Homo sapiens</em>, have been around for roughly 300,000 years. So what will happen if we make it to a million years?</p>
<p>Science fiction author H.G. Wells was the first to realise that humans could evolve into something very alien. In his 1883 essay, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3044429">Man in the year million</a>, he envisioned what’s now become a cliche: big-brained, tiny-bodied creatures. Later, he speculated that humans could also split into two or more new species.</p>
<p>While Wells’s evolutionary models have not stood the test of time, the three basic options he considered still hold true. We could go extinct, turn into several species or change.</p>
<p>An added ingredient is that we have biotechnology that could greatly increase the probability of each of them. Foreseeable future technologies such as human enhancement (making ourselves smarter, stronger or in other ways better using drugs, microchips, genetics or other technology), brain emulation (uploading our brains to computers) or artificial intelligence (AI) may produce technological forms of new species not seen in biology.</p>
<h2>Software intelligence and AI</h2>
<p>It is impossible to predict the future perfectly. It depends on fundamentally random factors: ideas and actions as well as currently unknown technological and biological limits. But it is my job to explore the possibilities, and I think the most likely case is vast “speciation” – when a species splits into several others. </p>
<p>There are many among us who want to improve the human condition – slowing and abolishing ageing, enhancing intelligence and mood, and changing bodies – potentially leading to new species. </p>
<p>These visions, however, leave many cold. It is plausible that even if these technologies become as cheap and ubiquitous as mobile phones, some people will refuse them on principle and build their self-image of being “normal” humans. In the long run, we should expect the most enhanced people, generation by generation (or upgrade after upgrade), to become one or more fundamentally different <a href="https://nickbostrom.com/posthuman.pdf">“posthuman” species</a> – and a species of holdouts declaring themselves the “real humans”.</p>
<p>Through <a href="https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf">brain emulation</a>, a speculative technology where one scans a brain at a cellular level and then reconstructs an equivalent neural network in a computer to create a “software intelligence”, we could go even further. This is no mere speciation, it is leaving the animal kingdom for the mineral, or rather, software kingdom. </p>
<p>There are many reasons some might want to do this, such as boosting chances of immortality (by creating copies and backups) or easy travel by internet or radio in space.</p>
<p>Software intelligence has other advantages, too. It can be very <a href="http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2009/03/a_really_green_and_sustainable_humanity.html">resource efficient</a> – a virtual being only needs energy from sunlight and some rock material to make microchips. It can also think and change on the timescales set by computation, probably millions of times faster than biological minds. It can evolve in new ways – it just needs a software update.</p>
<p>Yet humanity is perhaps unlikely to remain the sole intelligent species on the planet. Artificial intelligence is advancing rapidly right now. While there are profound uncertainties and disagreements about when or if it becomes conscious, artificial general intelligence (meaning it can understand or learn any intellectual problems like a human, rather than specialising on niche tasks) will arrive, a sizeable fraction of experts <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/category/ai-timelines/predictions-of-human-level-ai-timelines/ai-timeline-surveys/">think it is possible within this century</a> or sooner.</p>
<p>If it can happen, it probably will. At some point, we are likely to have a planet where humans have largely been replaced by software intelligence or AI – or some combination of the two.</p>
<h2>Utopia or dystopia?</h2>
<p>Eventually, it seems plausible that most minds will become software. Research suggests that computers will soon become much more energy efficient than they are now. Software minds also won’t need to eat or drink, which are inefficient ways of obtaining energy, and they can save power by running slower parts of the day. This means we should be able to get <a href="http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2009/03/a_really_green_and_sustainable_humanity.html">many more artificial minds per kilogram of matter</a> and watts of solar power than human minds in the far future. And since they can evolve fast, we should expect them to change tremendously over time from our current style of mind. </p>
<p>Physical beings have a distinct disadvantage compared with software beings, moving in the sluggish, quaint world of matter. Still, they are self-contained, unlike the flitting software that will evaporate if their data centre is ever disrupted. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Amish farm in New York." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497595/original/file-20221128-4841-504fa2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497595/original/file-20221128-4841-504fa2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497595/original/file-20221128-4841-504fa2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497595/original/file-20221128-4841-504fa2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497595/original/file-20221128-4841-504fa2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497595/original/file-20221128-4841-504fa2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497595/original/file-20221128-4841-504fa2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Amish farm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Natural” humans may remain in traditional societies very unlike those of software people. This is not unlike the Amish people today, whose humble lifestyle is still made possible (and protected) by the surrounding United States. It is not given that surrounding societies have to squash small and primitive societies: we have established human rights and legal protections and something similar could continue for normal humans.</p>
<p>Is this a good future? Much depends on your values. A good life may involve having meaningful relations with other people and living in a peaceful and prosperous environment sustainably. From that perspective, weird posthumans are not needed; we just need to ensure that the quiet little village can function (perhaps protected by unseen automation). </p>
<p>Some may value “the human project”, an unbroken chain from our palaeolithic ancestors to our future selves, but be open to progress. They would probably regard software people and AI as going too far, but be fine with humans evolving into strange new forms.</p>
<p>Others would argue what matters is freedom of self-expression and following your life goals. They may think we should explore the posthuman world widely and see what it has to offer. </p>
<p>Others may value happiness, thinking or other qualities that different entities hold and want futures that maximise these. Some may be uncertain, arguing we should hedge our bets by going down all paths to some extent.</p>
<h2>Dyson sphere?</h2>
<p>Here’s a prediction for the year one million. Some humans look more or less like us – but they are less numerous than they are now. Much of the surface is wilderness, having turned into a rewilding zone since there is far less need for agriculture and cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of a jungle in southeast Asia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497459/original/file-20221127-7250-eqiupm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497459/original/file-20221127-7250-eqiupm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497459/original/file-20221127-7250-eqiupm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497459/original/file-20221127-7250-eqiupm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497459/original/file-20221127-7250-eqiupm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497459/original/file-20221127-7250-eqiupm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497459/original/file-20221127-7250-eqiupm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The future may be wild.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Teo Tarras/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here and there, cultural sites with vastly different ecosystems pop up, carefully preserved by robots for historical or aesthetic reasons. </p>
<p>Under silicon canopies in the Sahara, trillions of artificial minds teem. The vast and hot data centres which power these minds once threatened to overheat the planet. Now, most orbit the Sun, forming a growing structure – a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-odds-of-an-alien-megastructure-blocking-light-from-a-distant-star-49311">Dyson sphere</a> – where each watt of energy powers thought, consciousness, complexity and other strange things we do not have words for yet.</p>
<p>If biological humans go extinct, the most likely reason (apart from the obvious and immediate threats right now) is a lack of respect, tolerance and binding contracts with other post-human species. Maybe a reason for us to start treating our own minorities betters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195051/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anders Sandberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
There may be humans who look more or less like us in the year million, but they won’t be alone.
Anders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute & Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/189591
2022-09-18T20:15:12Z
2022-09-18T20:15:12Z
What do we owe future generations? And what can we do to make their world a better place?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483125/original/file-20220907-20-kl1u00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C5725%2C3802&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/iRAvvyWZfZY">Markus Spiske via Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Your great grandchildren <a href="https://whatweowethefuture.com/">are powerless</a> in today’s society. As Oxford philosopher William MacAskill says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They cannot vote or lobby or run for public office, so politicians have scant incentive to think about them. They can’t bargain or trade with us, so they have little representation in the market, And they can’t make their views heard directly: they can’t tweet, or write articles in newspapers, or march in the streets. They are utterly disenfranchised.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But the things we do now influence them: for better or worse. We make laws that govern them, build infrastructure for them and take out loans for them to pay back. So what happens when we consider future generations while we make decisions today?</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Review: What We Owe the Future – William MacAskill (OneWorld)</em></p>
<hr>
<p>This is the key question in <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/au/what-we-owe-the-future-9780861542505/">What We Owe the Future</a>. It argues for what MacAskill calls longtermism: “the idea that positively influencing the longterm future is a key moral priority of our time.” He describes it as an extension of civil rights and women’s suffrage; as humanity marches on, we strive to consider a wider circle of people when making decisions about how to structure our societies.</p>
<p>MacAskill makes a compelling case that we should consider how to ensure a good future not only for our children’s children, but also the children of <em>their</em> children. In short, MacAskill argues that “future people count, there could be a lot of them, and we can make their lives go better.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-i-feel-my-heart-breaking-today-a-climate-scientists-path-through-grief-towards-hope-188589">Friday essay: 'I feel my heart breaking today' – a climate scientist's path through grief towards hope</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>Future people count</h2>
<p>It’s hard to feel for future people. We are bad enough at feeling for our future selves. As <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-simpsons-are-needed-more-than-ever-in-the-age-of-donald-trump-99330">The Simpsons</a> puts it: “That’s a problem for future Homer. Man, I don’t envy that guy.”</p>
<p>We all know we <em>should</em> protect our health for our own future. In a similar vein, MacAskill argues that we all “know” future people count.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Concern for future generations is common sense across diverse intellectual traditions […] When we dispose of radioactive waste, we don’t say, “Who cares if this poisons people centuries from now?” </p>
<p>Similarly, few of us who care about climate change or pollution do so solely for the sake of people alive today. We build museums and parks and bridges that we hope will last for generations; we invest in schools and longterm scientific projects; we preserve paintings, traditions, languages; we protect beautiful places.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>There could be a lot of future people</h2>
<p>Future people count, and MacAskill counts those people. The sheer number of future people might make their wellbeing a key moral priority. According to MacAskill and others, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/longtermism">humanity’s future could be vast</a>: much, much more than the 8 billion alive today.</p>
<p>While it’s hard to feel the gravitas, our actions may affect a dizzying number of people. Even if we last just 1 million years, as long as the average mammal – and even if the global population fell to 1 billion people – then there would be 9.1 trillion people in the future.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LEENEFaVUzU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The future of humanity could be unimaginably large, so those people deserve some moral weight.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We might struggle to care, because these numbers can be hard to <em>feel</em>. Our emotions don’t track well against large numbers. If I said a nuclear war would kill 500 million people, you might see that as a “huge problem”. If I instead said that the number is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0">actually closer to 5 billion</a>, it still feels like a “huge problem”. It does not emotionally <em>feel</em> 10 times worse. If we risk the trillions of people who could live in the future, that could be 1,000 times worse – but it doesn’t <em>feel</em> 1,000 times worse.</p>
<p>MacAskill does not argue we should give those people 1,000 times more concern than people alive today. Likewise, MacAskill does not say we should morally weight a person living a million years from now exactly the same as someone alive 10 or 100 years from now. Those distinctions won’t change what we can feasibly achieve now, given how hard change can be. </p>
<p>Instead, he shows if we care about future people at all, even those 100 years hence, we should simply be doing <em>more</em>. Fortunately, there are concrete things humanity can do.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-change-bill-is-set-to-become-law-but-3-important-measures-are-missing-190102">Labor's climate change bill is set to become law – but 3 important measures are missing</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>We can make the lives of future people better</h2>
<p>Another reason we <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749597818302930">struggle to be motivated</a> by big problems is that they feel insurmountable. This is a particular concern with future generations. Does anything I do make a difference, or is it a drop in the bucket? How do we know what to do when the <a href="https://80000hours.org/articles/cluelessness/">long-run effects are so uncertain</a>?</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483645/original/file-20220909-23-lt88ri.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="book cover of What We Owe the Future" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483645/original/file-20220909-23-lt88ri.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483645/original/file-20220909-23-lt88ri.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483645/original/file-20220909-23-lt88ri.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483645/original/file-20220909-23-lt88ri.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483645/original/file-20220909-23-lt88ri.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1168&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483645/original/file-20220909-23-lt88ri.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1168&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483645/original/file-20220909-23-lt88ri.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1168&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Even present-day problems can feel hard to tackle. At least for those problems we can get fast, reliable feedback on progress. Even with that advantage, we struggle. For the second year in a row, we <a href="https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/chapters/executive-summary">did not make progress</a> toward our sustainable development goals, like reducing war, poverty, and increasing growth. Globally, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/much-better-awful-can-be-better">4.3% of children still</a> die before the age of five. COVID-19 has killed about <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-deaths-cumulative-economist-single-entity?country=%7EOWID_WRL">23 million people</a>. Can we – and should we – justify focusing on future generations when we face these problems now?</p>
<p>MacAskill argues we can. Because the number of people is so large, he also argues we should. He identifies some areas where we could do things that protect the future while also helping people who are alive now. Many solutions are win-win.</p>
<p>For example, the current pandemic has shown that unforeseen events can have a devastating effect. Yet, despite the recent pandemic, many governments have done little to set up more robust systems that could <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22983046/congress-covid-pandemic-prevention">prevent the next pandemic.</a> MacAskill outlines ways in which those future pandemics could be worse.</p>
<p>Most worrying are the threats from engineered pathogens, which </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] could be much more destructive than natural pathogens because they can be modified to have dangerous new properties. Could someone design a pathogen with maximum destructive power—something with the lethality of Ebola and the contagiousness of measles? </p>
</blockquote>
<p>He gives examples, like militaries and terrorist groups, that have tried to engineer pathogens in the past.</p>
<p>The risk of an engineered <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-virus-families-that-could-cause-the-next-pandemic-according-to-the-experts-189622">pandemic</a> wiping us all out in the next 100 years is between 0.1% and 3%, according to estimates laid out in the book. </p>
<p>That might sound low, but MacAskill argues we would not step on a plane if you were told “it ‘only’ had a one-in-a-thousand chance of crashing and killing everyone on board”. These threaten not only future generations, but people reading this – and everyone they know.</p>
<p>MacAskill outlines ways in which we might be able to prevent engineered pandemics, like researching better personal protective equipment, cheaper and faster diagnostics, better infrastructure, or better governance of synthetic biology. Doing so would help save the lives of people alive today, reduce the risk of technological stagnation and protect humanity’s future. </p>
<p>The same win-wins might apply to <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">decarbonisation</a>, safe development of <a href="https://theconversation.com/irony-machine-why-are-ai-researchers-teaching-computers-to-recognise-irony-185904">artificial intelligence</a>, reducing risks from <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-vladimir-putins-nuclear-threats-a-bluff-in-a-word-probably-187689">nuclear war</a>, and other threats to humanity.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-a-limited-nuclear-war-would-starve-millions-of-people-new-study-reveals-188602">Even a 'limited' nuclear war would starve millions of people, new study reveals</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Things you can do to protect future generations</h2>
<p>Some “longtermist” issues, like climate change, are already firmly in the public consciousness. As a result, some may find MacAskill’s book “common sense”. Others may find the speculation about the far future pretty wild (like <a href="https://www.cold-takes.com/all-possible-views-about-humanitys-future-are-wild/">all possible views</a> of the longterm future).</p>
<p>MacAskill strikes an accessible balance between anchoring the arguments to concrete examples, while making modest extrapolations into the future. He helps us see how “common sense” principles can lead to novel or neglected conclusions. </p>
<p>For example, if there is any moral weight on future people, then many common societal goals (like faster economic growth) are vastly less important than reducing risks of extinction (like nuclear non-proliferation). It makes humanity look like an “imprudent teenager”, with many years ahead, but more power than wisdom:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Even if you think [the risk of extinction] is only a one-in-a-thousand, the risk to humanity this century is still ten times higher than the risk of your dying this year in a car crash. If humanity is like a teenager, then she is one who speeds around blind corners, drunk, without wearing a seat belt.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LzFOVXNk4i4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Sam Harris talks to William MacAskill about longtermism and effective altruism.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our biases toward present, local problems are strong, so connecting emotionally with the ideas can be hard. But MacAskill makes a compelling case for longtermism through clear stories and good metaphors. He answers many questions I had about safeguarding the future. Will the future be good or bad? Would it really matter if humanity ended? And, importantly, is there anything I can actually do?</p>
<p>The short answer is yes, there is. Things you might already do help, like minimising your carbon footprint – but MacAskill argues “other things you can do are radically more impactful”. For example, <a href="https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/eat-lancet-commission-summary-report/">reducing your meat consumption</a> would address climate change, but <a href="https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/cause-areas/long-term-future/climate-change#3-what-are-the-most-effective-charities-and-funds-working-on-climate-change">donating money</a> to the world’s most effective climate charities might be far more effective. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Beyond donations, three other personal decisions seem particularly high impact to me: political activism, spreading good ideas, and having children […] But by far the most important decision you will make, in terms of your lifetime impact, is your choice of career.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>MacAskill points to a range of resources – many of which he founded – that guide people in these areas. For those who might have flexibility in their career, MacAskill founded <a href="https://80000hours.org/">80,000 Hours</a>, which helps people find impactful, satisfying careers. For those trying to donate more impactfully, he founded <a href="https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/">Giving What We Can.</a> And, for spreading good ideas, he started a social movement called <a href="https://www.effectivealtruism.org/">Effective Altruism</a>.</p>
<p>Longtermism is one of those good ideas. It helps us better place our present in humanity’s bigger story. It’s humbling and inspiring to see the role we can play in protecting the future. We can enjoy life now and safeguard the future for our great grandchildren. MasAskill clearly shows that we owe it to them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189591/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Noetel receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, the Centre for Effective Altruism, and Sport Australia. He is a Director of Effective Altruism Australia.</span></em></p>
Your great grandchildren are powerless in today’s society, but the things we do now influence them, for better or worse. What happens when we consider them while we make decisions today?
Michael Noetel, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Australian Catholic University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/179916
2022-07-04T20:36:41Z
2022-07-04T20:36:41Z
Sci-fi shows like ‘Westworld’ and ‘Altered Carbon’ offer a glimpse into the future of urban transportation
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471947/original/file-20220630-13-cdmwog.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C0%2C7376%2C2492&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Future transportation design should address inequality and not exacerbate it.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before the pandemic, a typical commute may have involved choosing between walking, driving or taking public transit. Ride-sharing apps have also allowed us to request rides in a shared car, on a bike or even using a scooter. Walking might involve a journey that begins on a residential street and travels through bustling commercial strips, past cyclists and delivery drivers that would need to be dodged and manoeuvering through busy intersections.</p>
<p>The pandemic altered the commute for most and changed our experience of moving through cities. Municipalities have been installing <a href="https://believe.earth/en/how-to-increase-the-use-of-bikes-in-cities/">bike lanes</a>, reducing <a href="https://www.vox.com/a/new-economy-future/cars-cities-technologies">car lanes and parking</a>, <a href="https://nacto.org/publication/urban-street-design-guide/street-design-elements/sidewalks/">widening sidewalks and green spaces</a> and creating space for <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021/policies-to-promote-electric-vehicle-deployment">electric cars</a>. </p>
<p>If these changes were possible in such a short period of time, what could happen with decades of changing streets? Would public transit still exist? And what would it look like?</p>
<h2>The next generation</h2>
<p>The way we commute has already started to change. With <a href="https://www.geotab.com/blog/future-of-transportation/">next generation transportation projects</a>, <a href="https://www.remix.com/blog/8-benefits-of-public-transportation">public transportation is becoming more efficient</a> by employing <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/no-one-at-the-wheel-transits-driverless-future-in-ontario">self-driving buses and trains</a> and installing <a href="https://onlinemasters.ohio.edu/blog/the-future-of-public-transportation-2/">automatic card-ticketing systems</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471946/original/file-20220630-22-nm1pcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a red bus on a city street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471946/original/file-20220630-22-nm1pcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471946/original/file-20220630-22-nm1pcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471946/original/file-20220630-22-nm1pcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471946/original/file-20220630-22-nm1pcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471946/original/file-20220630-22-nm1pcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471946/original/file-20220630-22-nm1pcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471946/original/file-20220630-22-nm1pcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Oslo, public transit is designed to be as efficient as possible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Futuristic public transportation projects explore <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.024">transforming cities into smart cities</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10796-020-10044-1">addressing security and privacy concerns</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/cleantechnol2030019">creating new technical standards and piloting smart city projects</a>, like the proposed <a href="https://big.dk/#projects-tfc">artificial intelligence-powered campus</a> in Chongqing, China.</p>
<p>Science fiction storytelling has constantly envisioned the cities and urban life of the future. Classics like <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4240846"><em>Blade Runner</em> and <em>Ghost in the Shell</em></a> contain prescient representations of the future as imagined at the time. China’s <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/chinese-government-social-credit-score-privacy-invasion">social credit system</a> echoes the mass surveillance system in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1464936032000137966">George Orwell’s <em>1984</em></a>.</p>
<h2>Urban futures</h2>
<p>In the science fiction TV series <em>Altered Carbon</em> and <em>Westworld</em>, urban backdrops form a significant part of the shows’ depiction of the future. Futuristic cities are represented as densely populated, with skyscrapers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13604813.2016.1170489">towering above</a> busy, narrow streets.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2261227/"><em>Altered Carbon</em></a>, the streets are reminiscent of lively pedestrian night markets filled with merchant stalls. Rich urban residents live above the clouds in ultra-luxurious highrises and use the skies to <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/drones-are-turning-into-personal-flying-machines/">literally fly above the common folk</a>. </p>
<p>In the televised HBO series <em>Westworld</em>, homes are managed by an artificial intelligence that adjusts the house’s environment to the inhabitants’ needs, functions as a security system and even doles out advice to its residents. Outside, holographic advertisements can be seen with the use of smart contact lenses that augment the streetscape with hidden content.</p>
<p>In <em>Westworld</em>, there are electric self-driving vehicles for citizens and self-driving luxury drones for the rich. Smart lenses have replaced smartphones, and shopping is also hyper-real with smart mirrors that remove the need to physically try on clothes. These technologies — <a href="https://www.mojo.vision/mojo-lens">smart lenses</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/s21227453">smart mirrors</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59577341">enhanced environments</a> — already exist.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iqHgPmqcL7s?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Vehicles in the television series ‘Westworld’ drew from the past to produce the future.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Inclusive futures</h2>
<p>So, what would a typical commute look like in the future? Imagine leaving the house with a self-flying drone that takes you to the main street to catch a flying bus. You check the news on your smart contact lens. You reach your stop and while walking the final steps to your destination notice something in a store window. You approach it and see how it looks on you, purchase it instantly and have it delivered to your home immediately. </p>
<p>Buses and cars zoom by at high speeds, yet there are no collisions because sophisticated AI controls everything. The streetscape is no longer one layer, but many intertwining passageways at different low altitudes. Parks and open green areas scale vertically, creating smaller and privatized pockets of greenery within highrise structures.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11186-020-09410-4">Cities have become the centres for the development and applications of digital technology</a> and creating the city of the future will not be without challenges, such as those of affordability, social cohesion, equity and climate change. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/tech-focus-needs-marginalized-groups/">Marginalized groups must be part of the process</a> in designing this future. The question then remains who will design this future — private companies or the public sector? Planners, designers and governments must be able to keep up with the rapidly changing technologies that can shape our world for better or for worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179916/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Moving around cities will change in the future as new technologies like self-driving cars gain wider adoption. Science fiction can give us a glimpse into these futures.
Burcu Olgen, PhD Student, Research Assistant, Concordia University
Fatima Mehrzad, PhD candidate, Design and Computation Arts, Concordia University
Negarsadat Rahimi, PhD Student, Design and Computation Arts, Concordia University
Sara El Khatib, Phd Student, Design and Computation Arts, Concordia University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/183904
2022-06-08T12:33:09Z
2022-06-08T12:33:09Z
How your race, class and gender influence your dreams for the future
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467281/original/file-20220606-24-h2ywie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C452%2C4569%2C3368&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Emile Bernard's 1888 painting 'Madeleine in the Bois d'Amour.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/madeleine-in-the-bois-damour-1888-from-the-collection-of-news-photo/1151163973?adppopup=true">The Print Collector/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Disney’s “Pinocchio,” Jiminy Cricket <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0032910/characters/nm0249893">famously sings</a>, “When you wish upon a star, makes no difference who you are. Anything your heart desires will come to you.” </p>
<p>But Jiminy Cricket got it wrong. </p>
<p>We’re often taught that we are free to dream – to imagine our future possibilities. </p>
<p>Yet in a large research project we conducted with over 270 participants living in the U.S., we found that people’s dreams are restricted in very specific ways. Our book “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691229096/dreams-of-a-lifetime">Dreams of a Lifetime: How Who We Are Shapes How We Imagine Our Future</a>,” shows how. </p>
<p>Through interviews and focus groups conducted over roughly nine months, we asked people to talk about their dreams for the future. We spoke with people of different social class backgrounds; of different races and genders; and at different stages of life – newlyweds, new parents, people starting new jobs and recent immigrants. We talked to people facing serious hardships, such as poverty, homelessness, serious medical diagnoses or unemployment. </p>
<p>We found that these social characteristics and life experiences seep into the mind’s eye, quietly influencing how people dream and whether they believe their dreams can come true.</p>
<h2>Where men and women diverge</h2>
<p>We already know that the rich and poor, men and women, nonwhites and whites, the old and the young <a href="https://study.sagepub.com/ruane7e">have vastly different experiences</a> with criminal victimization, educational opportunity, health and disease, housing and wealth.</p>
<p>But through our research we have learned that these factors also have a powerful impact on dreaming. This is important because it appears as though one’s social standing can bake inequalities into the very life of the mind, creating both road maps and roadblocks.</p>
<p>Consider the content of people’s dreams. Both men and women were equally likely to dream of career accomplishments and having the opportunity to help others or donate large sums of money down the road.</p>
<p>But there were also notable gender differences. Women were more likely than men to identify topics associated with <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/gender-socialization-definition-examples-4582435">traditional womanhood</a> – family-related dreams, such as having kids, keeping peace in the family, maintaining long, successful relationships and hoping to improve their physical appearance.</p>
<p>Men, in contrast, were more likely than women to dream of adventure and fame, wealth and power – themes consistent with <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/gender-socialization-definition-examples-4582435">traditional manhood</a>. We also learned that women tend to be more varied, more committed and more optimistic about their dreams than men.</p>
<h2>A Latino dream gap</h2>
<p>Most people from all of the racial groups we studied felt their dreams were realistic and achievable.</p>
<p>When we asked, “Is your dream grounded in reality?” all of our Asian respondents and 80% of Black respondents answered “Yes,” with multiracial and white respondents falling in between these two groups. Over two-thirds of Asian, Black, multiracial and white respondents thought they had a 70% chance or better of accomplishing their dreams. </p>
<p>However, among Latino respondents, only about half saw their dreams as realistic. And only 41% felt there was a 70% chance or higher that their dreams would come true. </p>
<p>As people spoke to us about their dreams, we heard four positive lessons repeatedly offered by many of our study participants: “opportunity is boundless,” “dream big,” “never give up on your dreams” and “optimism makes anything possible.” We also consistently heard two negative lessons from some participants: “the deck is stacked” and “the higher people rise, the harder they fall.”</p>
<p>In talking to us about their dreams and whether they could accomplish them, 60% of Latino respondents referenced one of these two negative cultural lessons on dreaming. In contrast, all other racial groups were more likely to offer positive lessons on dreaming. That includes 60% of Black respondents, about two-thirds of multiracial respondents and roughly 80% of Asian and white respondents.</p>
<p>Among our participants, the practicality of dreaming and attainability of dreams seem to be powerfully connected to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/socf.12765">cultural lessons</a> imparted to them – the adages, parables and wisdom learned from books, movies, songs, national symbols and traditions they’d been exposed to throughout their lives.</p>
<h2>The American delusion</h2>
<p>When dreaming, class matters as well. The wealthier you are, the more varied your dreams, the more likely you are to engage in dreams you want to accomplish right away, the more reluctant you are to give up on a dream, and the more likely you are to see your dreams as realistic and doable. </p>
<p>These patterns confirm what Olympic gold medalist Billy Mills <a href="https://japan-forward.com/odds-and-evens-how-legendary-runner-billy-mills-found-purpose-by-chasing-an-olympic-dream/">so eloquently stated</a>: Being poor leads to “the most devastating poverty of all, a poverty of dreams.”</p>
<p>These differences – as well as many others we found in our research – broaden the definition of inequality. They show that inequality is deep-seated and often precedes action or outcome. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Drawing of small boy surrounded by empty space." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467579/original/file-20220607-40719-9wyv03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467579/original/file-20220607-40719-9wyv03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467579/original/file-20220607-40719-9wyv03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467579/original/file-20220607-40719-9wyv03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467579/original/file-20220607-40719-9wyv03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467579/original/file-20220607-40719-9wyv03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467579/original/file-20220607-40719-9wyv03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Life circumstances determine whether a dream seems doable or daunting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/hope-of-lonely-boy-royalty-free-illustration/1345161790?adppopup=true">Jorm Sangsorn/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our study, it was clear to us that some study participants never intended to actually pursue their dreams. </p>
<p>On the other hand, some respondents did intend to do so. And some were in a better position than others. The wealthy professional who wanted to start a business was already on track. Yet the retired middle-class woman who dreamed of making peace in the Middle East had no path available to her. The affluent high school senior who wanted to learn all the languages of the world was already working on mastering several foreign languages. The disadvantaged senior citizen who clung to the dream of becoming president had no traction at all. </p>
<p>American culture encourages people to dream big. But it’s important to ground those dreams with a dose of reality. When teachers say “You can be anything you want, even president of the United States” – and don’t explain the way in which politics, money and power are intertwined – they lay the groundwork for feelings of personal failure and resentment. And while the mantra “work hard and your dreams will come true” <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/02/religion-workism-making-americans-miserable/583441/">percolates in American culture</a>, it papers over the fact that millions <a href="https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/countries/united-states/poverty-in-the-us/hard-work-hard-lives-survey-of-low-wage-workers-in-america/">work grueling jobs</a> and still find themselves <a href="https://familyandcommunityimpact.org/why-dont-poor-people-just-work-harder-poverty-stress-and-getting-stuck-in-reverse/">mired in grinding poverty</a>.</p>
<p>Until the gap between the haves and the have-nots narrows, dreams will lie dormant or gradually wither – discouraging planning or shriveling into a cruel reminder of what won’t come true.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183904/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Your background and life experiences seep into the mind’s eye, quietly shaping whether you believe your dreams can come true.
Karen A. Cerulo, Professor of Sociology, Rutgers University
Janet Ruane, Professor Emerita of Sociology, Montclair State University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/182228
2022-05-31T20:12:35Z
2022-05-31T20:12:35Z
The first Australian First Nations anthology of speculative fiction is playful, bitter, loud and proud
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466164/original/file-20220531-26-eoybgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>This is not “just” an anthology of Australian First Nations <a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-science-fictions-women-problem-58626">speculative fiction</a>, but also the <em>first</em> Australian anthology of First Nations speculative fiction. And what an entry onto the scene it is! </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Review: This All Come Back Now: An Anthology of First Nations Speculative Fiction edited by Mykaela Saunders (University of Queensland Press)</em></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465671/original/file-20220527-21-w6ca4m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465671/original/file-20220527-21-w6ca4m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465671/original/file-20220527-21-w6ca4m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465671/original/file-20220527-21-w6ca4m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465671/original/file-20220527-21-w6ca4m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465671/original/file-20220527-21-w6ca4m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465671/original/file-20220527-21-w6ca4m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465671/original/file-20220527-21-w6ca4m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p>In my view, speculative fiction – the narrative exploration of “what-ifs”, the creative probing into latent possibilities, the imaginary voyaging into potential futures – is the genre of our times. We are on the brink of … something. Environmentally, for sure. But also socially, politically, economically. </p>
<p>What this something is, when it will happen, how it will shape the future: these are the questions at stake. This collection of Australian <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-way-we-talk-about-first-nations-issues-is-striking-as-our-analysis-of-82-million-words-of-australian-news-and-opinion-shows-179480">First Nation</a> voices exploring these very questions – creatively, through storytelling – is a most welcome addition to the scene. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-how-speculative-fiction-gained-literary-respectability-102568">Friday essay: how speculative fiction gained literary respectability</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Country with a capital ‘C’</h2>
<p>What makes the contributions to <a href="https://www.uqp.com.au/books/this-all-come-back-now">This All Come Back Now</a> distinct – and distinctly First Nations? </p>
<p>First, Country with a capital “C”, in that very First Nations sense of something utterly fundamental and intimately related to the self, is centrally present across these pages. Many of these stories are fully immersed in Country. </p>
<p>It’s often being restored after catastrophe, or is restorative. For example, in Larrakia, Kungarakan, Gurindji and French writer Laniyuk’s piece, “Nimeybirra”: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I want justice. I want retribution. I want vengeance. I want the ugly. I want the wrong. […] In the quiet calm, in conversation with Country, I hear the whispers of another way of being, and that is the call I must follow. That is the only reason and voice that makes sense in the world.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465963/original/file-20220530-16-84t9za.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465963/original/file-20220530-16-84t9za.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465963/original/file-20220530-16-84t9za.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465963/original/file-20220530-16-84t9za.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465963/original/file-20220530-16-84t9za.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465963/original/file-20220530-16-84t9za.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465963/original/file-20220530-16-84t9za.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465963/original/file-20220530-16-84t9za.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Laniyuk: Country is ever-present in her story, ‘Nimeybirra’.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout, Country’s ever-presence is suggested in little phrases or metaphors (the moths in Martu author Karen Wyld’s “Clatter Tongue”, the mangroves in Bardi writer Kalem Murray’s “In His Father’s Footsteps”). And it’s there in myriad deeply meaningful references to smoke, birds, sand, water, wind, light, air and trees. </p>
<p>Sometimes, the contrast between a story’s setting and Country is incongruent – but at first glance only. A gripping example is Nyungar technologist and digital rights activist Kathryn Gledhill-Tucker’s startling piece “Protocols of Transference”. </p>
<p>It consists of shards of monologue directed towards an unspecified electronic technology, from when it “first spoke” to its final days. </p>
<p>The narrator observes that the collapse predicted by data that had “overwhelmed our scientists” was “avoidable, had they paid attention to our country and kin.”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>By country and kin, we mean all of it. We encompass the ground and all its substrate, sand, rare earth minerals, craters left from old meteors that make their way into old stories, hidden river systems, animals fossilised in place, tracks tracing paths from trees to waterholes; trade routes and songlines that have made way for worn paths, widened by horses, then lanes of cars, paved with bitumen, that leave scars of old stories in the geometry of people and protocol.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ancient-stories-and-enduring-spirit-loving-country-reminds-us-of-the-wonders-right-under-our-noses-151571">Ancient stories and enduring spirit: Loving Country reminds us of the wonders right under our noses</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Cheeky and ‘bitter-funny’</h2>
<p>Another recurring element in this anthology is a particular kind of humour. It’s playful: Noongar writer Timmah Ball’s “An Invitation” is set in a time that references the “era before buildings disappeared”. </p>
<p>It’s cheeky and tongue-in-cheek, as shown in Gomeroi poet <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alison-whittaker-506872/articles">Alison Whittaker</a>’s “The Centre”: “I remember my first time in the digital coolamon”. (A <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coolamon_(vessel)">coolamon</a> is an Australian Aboriginal carrying vessel.)</p>
<p>And it’s often bitter-funny. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465964/original/file-20220530-22-t704ru.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465964/original/file-20220530-22-t704ru.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465964/original/file-20220530-22-t704ru.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465964/original/file-20220530-22-t704ru.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465964/original/file-20220530-22-t704ru.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465964/original/file-20220530-22-t704ru.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465964/original/file-20220530-22-t704ru.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465964/original/file-20220530-22-t704ru.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adam Thompson.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In pakana writer Adam Thompson’s “Your Own Aborigine”, a “Sponsorship Bill” requires Aboriginal people to be personally sponsored by an Australian taxpayer in order to receive welfare money. </p>
<p>In a story within a story in “Five Minutes”, Kalkadoon writer John Morrissey presents a mocking play on the the relative <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-artistic-call-for-us-to-recognise-the-connections-of-country-is-a-testament-to-the-power-of-aboriginal-knowledge-169102">connection to Country</a> for settlers (200 years) compared to Aboriginal Australians (50,000 years), as aliens invade. </p>
<p>They incinerate settlers in an instant – but apologetically grant Aboriginal people an extra five minutes to say goodbye to Country. </p>
<p>Or consider Wonnarua and Lebanese author Merryana Salem’s play on temporalities in “When From?”, a story about a clandestine time-travel mission, in a world where <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-travel-could-be-possible-but-only-with-parallel-timelines-178776">time travel</a> is possible (but has been banned), to collect “reference footage” of <a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-but-we-already-had-a-treaty-tom-griffiths-on-a-little-known-1889-peace-accord-182511">frontier violence</a>, for historical accuracy in filmmaking. </p>
<p>When traveller Ardelia Paves, instructed not to interact with “the population”, protests that “they’ll be massacred”, she’s told:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Even if you were permitted to interact with the population, Miss Paves, how would you warn them? Last I checked, the dialect was lost […] I acknowledge your anger, I do, but we’re making a film that will tell their story, and we need you to do this so that we can.”</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/supernovas-auroral-sounds-and-hungry-tides-unpacking-first-nations-knowledge-of-the-skies-178875">Supernovas, auroral sounds and hungry tides: unpacking First Nations knowledge of the skies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>‘Loud and proud’ First Nations voice</h2>
<p>Finally, what sets this anthology apart is its sense that though each “what-if?” story is wildly different from the next, they come together as a whole that is bigger than its parts. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465965/original/file-20220530-16-bnftsc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465965/original/file-20220530-16-bnftsc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465965/original/file-20220530-16-bnftsc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465965/original/file-20220530-16-bnftsc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465965/original/file-20220530-16-bnftsc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465965/original/file-20220530-16-bnftsc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465965/original/file-20220530-16-bnftsc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465965/original/file-20220530-16-bnftsc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mykaela Saunders, editor of This All Come Back.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To some considerable extent, this is due to Koori writer and editor Mykaela Saunders’ exceptional editing. Each story stands alone as a unique exploration of its “what-if” premise – set in its own imaginative time and place, with its own original story arc, delivered in its own style. Yet these stories segue seamlessly from one to the next. </p>
<p>Each story is connected to its precedessor through one theme and to its successor through another: they come together like notes in a song. While there are many original voices in this anthology, it also speaks with one loud and proud overarching First Nations voice. </p>
<p>I recommend this anthology to readers interested in good fiction generally and speculative fiction in particular. But most emphatically, I recommend it to anyone who might wonder what a First Nations response to the question of our potential future might look like. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: this article originally stated this anthology was the first First Nations anthology of speculative fiction. However, First Nations anthologies that come under the ‘speculative fiction’ umbrella have been found to exist in other countries, so we have amended the text to make clear it is the first in Australia.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182228/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yasmine Musharbash received funding from the ARC. </span></em></p>
What might our future look like? Together, these speculative fiction stories offer a First Nations response to this burning question.
Yasmine Musharbash, Senior Lecturer and Head of Anthropology, Australian National University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/180859
2022-04-18T19:57:32Z
2022-04-18T19:57:32Z
Plant-based patties, lab-grown meat and insects: how the protein industry is innovating to meet demand
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457569/original/file-20220412-21-scscs0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4808%2C3100&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/asian-happy-boy-eating-hamburger-burger-539830786">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australians-buy-more-dairy-and-meat-substitutes-2020-21#:%7E:text=The%20amount%20of%20dairy%20and,Bureau%20of%20Statistics%20(ABS)">As demand for alternative protein sources grows</a>, Australians are increasingly looking for options that are healthy, sustainable and ethically made. </p>
<p>At CSIRO, we have produced a “<a href="https://www.csiro.au/protein-roadmap">protein roadmap</a>” to guide investments in a diverse range of new products and ingredients. We believe plant-based patties, lab-made meat and insects are just some of the foods set to fill Australian fridges by 2030.</p>
<p>The roadmap sketches out the foundations for a future with greater choice for consumers, and better outcomes for Australian producers across all types of protein. </p>
<h2>Changing protein preferences</h2>
<p>Australia is one of the world’s largest per-capita <a href="https://www.mla.com.au/globalassets/mla-corporate/prices--markets/documents/trends--analysis/soti-report/2789-mla-state-of-industry-report-2021_d11_single.pdf">beef consumers</a>, but there has been a steady decline in consumption over the past two decades.</p>
<p>The most <a href="https://www.mla.com.au/marketing-beef-and-lamb/consumer-sentiment-research">common reason</a> for eating less red meat is cost, followed by concerns related to health, the environment, and animal welfare. </p>
<p>At the same time, meat consumption among the middle class in <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/cf68bf79-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/cf68bf79-en">countries such as China and Vietnam has been rising</a>.</p>
<p>This shift in demand is creating an opportunity for protein producers to expand and diversify.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ultra-processed-foods-are-trashing-our-health-and-the-planet-180115">Ultra-processed foods are trashing our health – and the planet</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Producing plant-based protein locally</h2>
<p>The plant protein industry is still small in Australia. However, it is <a href="https://www.foodfrontier.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2021/03/Food-Frontier-2020-State-of-the-Industry.pdf">ramping up rapidly</a>.</p>
<p>The total number of plant-based protein products on grocery shelves has doubled over the past year to more than 200. <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australians-buy-more-dairy-and-meat-substitutes-2020-21#:%7E:text=The%20amount%20of%20dairy%20and,Bureau%20of%20Statistics%20(ABS)">Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> shows demand for these products has increased by about 30% in the past two years. </p>
<p>Plant-based food products are made by processing various plant ingredients (such as wholegrains, legumes, beans, nuts and oilseeds) into food products, including breads, pasta, and alternatives to meat and dairy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bird's eye view of a plant-based patty in one hand and a cup of legumes in the other hand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457557/original/file-20220412-12-mny4zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Legumes are often used to create plant-based patties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mans-hands-holding-plant-based-non-1802315809">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lupins, chickpeas and lentils can be turned into plant-based burgers, while protein powders can be made from faba or mung beans.</p>
<p>Most plant-based products available now are either imported or made in Australia using imported ingredients, so there is plenty of room for Australian producers to enter the industry. </p>
<h2>The story behind the steak</h2>
<p>Meat will continue to be a staple in many people’s diets for years to come. </p>
<p>When we do eat meat, Australian consumers are increasingly asking questions about where their meat came from. On this front, “digital integrity” systems can be a useful solution.</p>
<p>These systems track everything from the origin of ingredients, to nutrition, sustainable packaging, fair trade and organic certifications. They also keep a record of associated labour conditions, carbon footprint, water use, chemical use, animal welfare consideration, and impacts to biodiversity and air quality.</p>
<p>One example is made by Sydney-based firm NanoTag Technology: a unique micro-dot matrix pattern printed on the packaging of meat products which, when scanned with a pocket reader, <a href="https://www.nanotag.co/food">verifies</a> the authenticity of the product. Buyers can see the product’s pack date, batch number and factory of origin.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An array of beef cattle in a farm house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457559/original/file-20220412-19-w3dpn8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We’re becoming more interested in the story behind the steak.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beefs-standing-herd-barn-they-eating-1845608137">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Seafood is also an <a href="https://www.agrifutures.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/20-001.pdf">important source of healthy and low-fat protein</a>. Demand is growing for local, inexpensive white-flesh fish such as barramundi and Murray cod.</p>
<p>While Australia produces 11,000 tonnes of white-flesh fish annually, it also <a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/new-everyday-supermarket-fish/">imports almost ten times</a> this amount to help meet annual demand. </p>
<p>Responding to this demand, the Australian aquaculture industry has <a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/new-everyday-supermarket-fish/">ambitions to reach 50,000 tonnes of homegrown produce</a> by 2030.</p>
<h2>Fermented foods</h2>
<p><a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/whats-brewing-precision-fermentation/">Precision fermentation</a> is another technology for creating protein-rich products and ingredients – potentially worth A$2.2 billion by 2030.</p>
<p>Traditional fermentation involves using microorganisms (such as bacteria and yeast) to create food including yoghurt, bread or tempeh. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An array of fermented foods shot from above." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457564/original/file-20220412-14-orw4hr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fermentation can create nutritious plant-based milk, yogurts, tempeh and more.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fermented-food-probiotics-kefir-kombucha-sauerkraut-1673466124">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In precision fermentation, you customise the microorganisms to create new products. The US-based <a href="https://theeverycompany.com/">Every Company</a>, uses customised microorganism strains to create a chicken-free substitute for egg white. Similarly, <a href="https://perfectday.com/">Perfect Day</a> has created a cow-free milk. </p>
<h2>Man made meats</h2>
<p>Still want to eat meat, but are concerned about animal welfare or environmental impacts? Cultivated or cell-based meat is biologically similar to the regular variety, but the animal cells are grown in a lab, not a farm. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A close up of lab grown meat production." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457566/original/file-20220412-30687-1qdbnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An array of companies are working towards biologically identical, lab-grown meat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/meat-sample-open-disposable-plastic-cell-1317402761">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australian company <a href="https://www.thechainsaw.com/vow-foods-cell-based-meat-seed-funding-2021-1">Vow</a> is making pork and chicken, as well as kangaroo, alpaca and water buffalo meat using cells from animals. These products are not yet commercially available, though chef Neil Perry did <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/startupsmart/news/vow-food-neil-perry-lab-grown-meat/">use some of them to create a menu in 2020</a>.</p>
<h2>Edible insects</h2>
<p>Edible insects, such as crickets and mealworms, have been part of cuisines around the world for millennia, including Australian First Nations Peoples. </p>
<p>Insects have a <a href="https://research.csiro.au/edibleinsects/">high nutritional value</a>, are rich in protein, omega-3 fatty acids, iron, zinc, folic acid and vitamins B12, C and E.</p>
<p>Insect farming is also considered to have a low environmental footprint, and requires less land, water and energy. </p>
<p>Australian company <a href="https://circleharvest.com.au/">Circle Harvest</a> sells a range of edible insect products including pastas and chocolate brownie mixes enriched with cricket powder.</p>
<p>Protein is vital to our health. However, until now its production has placed strain on the health of most other ecosystems. CSIRO’s protein roadmap offers not only sustainability, but also more choice for consumers and opportunities for Australian producers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/emerging-tech-in-the-food-transport-and-energy-sector-can-help-counter-the-effects-of-climate-change-180126">Emerging tech in the food, transport and energy sector can help counter the effects of climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180859/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Wynn works for the CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Colgrave is affiliated with both CSIRO, which receives funding from the Australian Government; and Edith Cowan University wherein she receives grant funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>
A new ‘protein roadmap’ produced by CSIRO reveals foods set to fill fridges by 2030 as health, environmental and ethical concerns push consumers away from meat.
Katherine Wynn, Lead Economist, CSIRO Futures, CSIRO
Michelle Colgrave, Professor of Food and Agricultural Proteomics, CSIRO
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/176997
2022-03-01T16:13:59Z
2022-03-01T16:13:59Z
Future evolution: from looks to brains and personality, how will humans change in the next 10,000 years?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448514/original/file-20220225-21-1ewvdn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C40%2C2968%2C1931&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Where's next for Homo Sapiens?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/kyiv-ukraine-june-16-2018-national-1120827521">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>READER QUESTION:</strong> <em>If humans don’t die out in a climate apocalypse or asteroid impact in the next 10,000 years, are we likely to evolve further into a more advanced species than what we are at the moment? Harry Bonas, 57, Nigeria</em></p>
<p>Humanity is the unlikely result of 4 billion years of evolution. </p>
<p>From self-replicating molecules in Archean seas, to eyeless fish in the Cambrian deep, to mammals scurrying from dinosaurs in the dark, and then, finally, improbably, ourselves – evolution shaped us. </p>
<p>Organisms reproduced imperfectly. Mistakes made when copying genes sometimes made them better fit to their environments, so those genes tended to get passed on. More reproduction followed, and more mistakes, the process repeating over billions of generations. Finally, <em>Homo sapiens</em> appeared. But we aren’t the end of that story. Evolution won’t stop with us, and <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126952-400-review-the-10000-year-explosion-by-gregory-cochran-and-henry-harpending/">we might even be evolving faster than ever</a>. </p>
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/lifes-big-questions-80040?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=LifesBigQuestionsUK">Life’s Big Questions</a></em></strong>
<br><em>The Conversation’s new series, co-published with BBC Future, seeks to answer our readers’ nagging questions about life, love, death and the universe. We work with professional researchers who have dedicated their lives to uncovering new perspectives on the questions that shape our lives.</em></p>
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<p>It’s hard to predict the future. The world will probably change in ways we can’t imagine. But we can make educated guesses. Paradoxically, the best way to predict the future is probably looking back at the past, and assuming past trends will continue going forward. This suggests some surprising things about our future.</p>
<p>We will likely live longer and become taller, as well as more lightly built. We’ll probably be less aggressive and more agreeable, but have smaller brains. A bit like a golden retriever, we’ll be friendly and jolly, but maybe not that interesting. At least, that’s one possible future. But to understand why I think that’s likely, we need to look at biology.</p>
<h2>The end of natural selection?</h2>
<p>Some scientists have argued that civilisation’s rise <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2007/dec/15/genetics.evolution">ended natural selection</a>. It’s true that selective pressures that dominated in the past – <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajpa.20415">predators</a>, famine, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0047747QK/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1">plague</a>, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00DTDFOFG/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1">warfare</a> – have mostly disappeared. </p>
<p>Starvation and famine were largely ended by <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B003QP4BJM/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1">high-yield crops, fertilisers</a> and family planning. Violence and war are less common than ever, despite modern militaries with nuclear weapons, or maybe <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Making-Atomic-Bomb-Richard-Rhodes-ebook/dp/B008TRU7SQ/ref=sr_1_1?crid=81PRQTJ0LOPH&keywords=making%20of%20the%20atomic%20bomb&qid=1644311120&s=digital-text&sprefix=making%20of%20the%20atomic%20bom%2Cdigital-text%2C264&sr=1-1">because of them</a>. The lions, wolves and sabertoothed cats that hunted us in the dark are endangered or extinct. Plagues that killed millions – smallpox, Black Death, cholera – were tamed by vaccines, antibiotics, clean water.</p>
<p>But evolution didn’t stop; other things just drive it now. Evolution isn’t so much about survival of the fittest as reproduction of the fittest. Even if nature is less likely to murder us, we still need to find partners and raise children, so sexual selection now plays a bigger role in our evolution.</p>
<p>And if nature doesn’t control our evolution anymore, the unnatural environment we’ve created – culture, technology, cities – produces new selective pressures very unlike those we faced in the ice age. We’re poorly adapted to this modern world; it follows that we’ll have to adapt. </p>
<p>And that process has already started. As our diets changed to include grains and dairy, we evolved genes to help us <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ng2123">digest starch</a> and <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-genom-091416-035340">milk</a>. When dense cities created conditions for disease to spread, mutations for <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/100/25/15276.short">disease resistance spread</a> too. And for some reason, <a href="https://www.karger.com/Article/Abstract/519504">our brains have got smaller</a>. Unnatural environments create unnatural selection.</p>
<p>To predict where this goes, we’ll look at our prehistory, studying trends over the past 6 million years of evolution. Some trends will continue, especially those that emerged in the past 10,000 years, after agriculture and civilisation were invented. </p>
<p>We’re also facing new selective pressures, such as reduced mortality. Studying the past doesn’t help here, but we can see how other species responded to similar pressures. Evolution in domestic animals may be especially relevant – arguably we’re becoming a kind of domesticated ape, but curiously, <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/early-humans-domesticated-themselves-new-genetic-evidence-suggests?utm_campaign=SciMag&utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Facebook">one domesticated by ourselves</a>. </p>
<p>I’ll use this approach to make some predictions, if not always with high confidence. That is, I’ll speculate.</p>
<h2>Lifespan</h2>
<p>Humans will almost certainly evolve to live longer – much longer. Life cycles evolve in response to mortality rates, how likely predators and other threats are to kill you. When mortality rates are high, animals must reproduce young, or might not reproduce at all. There’s also no advantage to evolving mutations that prevent ageing or cancer - you won’t live long enough to use them. </p>
<p>When mortality rates are low, the opposite is true. It’s better to take your time reaching sexual maturity. It’s also useful to have adaptations that extend lifespan, and fertility, giving you more time to reproduce. That’s why animals with few predators - animals that live on islands or in the deep ocean, or are simply big - evolve longer lifespans. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.aaf1703">Greenland sharks</a>, <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg18324645-000-the-origin-of-harriet/?ignored=irrelevant">Galapagos tortoises</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211124714010195">bowhead whales</a> mature late, and can live for centuries.</p>
<p>Even before civilisation, people were unique among apes in having low mortality and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/evan.1360010406">long lives</a>. Hunter-gatherers armed with spears and bows could defend against predators; <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090513800000660?casa_token=flfN2IIm4GMAAAAA%3A4wiyTcAbi4_ekhP3nx7AOBVKyWpHM-Yco6uu5x8jCVzhBp-4XhE7TNLbN_JLG29lpvrsp_sw2g">food sharing</a> prevented starvation. So we evolved delayed sexual maturity, and long lifespans - <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-3-319-16999-6_2352-1">up to 70 years</a>.</p>
<p>Still, child mortality was high - <a href="https://escholarship.org/content/qt2zb2v4x9/qt2zb2v4x9.pdf">approaching 50%</a> or <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1651-2227.2011.02573.x?casa_token=y-YSz5W2IRIAAAAA%3A4sZ98kY2GLRSs35WMNzJr_WqDQrxDqTuqwyIUYSe9N8Y6fx0XoYSAHCDxyrDqYyYuCl2apKeQErOUSc">more</a> by age 15. Average life expectancy was just <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1651-2227.2011.02573.x?casa_token=y-YSz5W2IRIAAAAA%3A4sZ98kY2GLRSs35WMNzJr_WqDQrxDqTuqwyIUYSe9N8Y6fx0XoYSAHCDxyrDqYyYuCl2apKeQErOUSc">35 years</a>. Even after the rise of civilisation, child mortality stayed high until the 19th century, while life expectancy went down - <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy">to 30 years</a> - due to plagues and famines.</p>
<p>Then, in the past two centuries, better nutrition, medicine and hygiene reduced youth mortality to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/youth-mortality-rate">under 1%</a> in most developed nations. Life expectancy soared to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#:%7E:text=The%20United%20Nations%20estimate%20a,life%20expectancy%20of%2072.3%20years.">70 years worldwide </a>, and 80 in developed countries. These increases are due to improved health, not evolution – but they set the stage for evolution to extend our lifespan.</p>
<p>Now, there’s little need to reproduce early. If anything, the years of training needed to be a doctor, CEO, or carpenter incentivise putting it off. And since our life expectancy has doubled, adaptations to prolong lifespan and child-bearing years are now advantageous. Given that more and more people live to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#:%7E:text=The%20United%20Nations%20estimate%20a,life%20expectancy%20of%2072.3%20years.">100</a> or even <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2895458/">110 years</a> - <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00070-1">the record being 122 years</a> - there’s reason to think our genes could evolve until the average person routinely lives 100 years or even more.</p>
<h2>Size, and strength</h2>
<p>Animals often evolve larger size over time; it’s a trend seen in <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/113/13/3447">tyrannosaurs</a>, whales, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/paleobiology/article/abs/fossil-horses-from-eohippus-hyracotherium-to-equus-scaling-copes-law-and-the-evolution-of-body-size/9965A8A02408FBECB70D012A54930EA2">horses</a> and primates - including hominins. </p>
<p>Early hominins like <a href="https://humanorigins.si.edu/evidence/human-fossils/species/australopithecus-afarensis"><em>Australopithecus afarensis</em></a> and <a href="https://humanorigins.si.edu/evidence/human-fossils/species/homo-habilis"><em>Homo habilis</em></a> were small, four to five feet (120cm-150cm) tall. Later hominins - <a href="https://humanorigins.si.edu/evidence/human-fossils/species/homo-erectus"><em>Homo erectus</em></a>, Neanderthals, <em>Homo sapiens</em> - grew taller. We’ve <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/brv.12165">continued to gain height</a> in historic times, partly driven by improved nutrition, but <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2015.0211">genes seem to be evolving too</a>. </p>
<p>Why we got big is unclear. In part, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/667694">mortality may drive size evolution</a>; growth takes time, so longer lives mean more time to grow. But human females also <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/35003107">prefer</a> <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/sbp/sbp/1996/00000024/00000002/art00005">tall males</a>. So both lower mortality and sexual preferences will likely cause humans to get taller. Today, the tallest people in the world are in Europe, led by the Netherlands. Here, men average 183cm (6ft); women 170cm (5ft 6in). Someday, most people might be that tall, or taller.</p>
<p>As we’ve grown taller, we’ve become more gracile. Over the past 2 million years, our skeletons became <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27858865?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">more lightly built</a> as we relied less on brute force, and more on tools and weapons. As farming forced us to settle down, our lives became more sedentary, so <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/112/2/372">our bone density decreased</a>. As we spend more time behind desks, keyboards and steering wheels, these trends will likely continue.</p>
<p>Humans have also reduced our muscles <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4475937/">compared to other apes</a>, especially in our upper bodies. That will probably continue. Our ancestors had to slaughter antelopes and dig roots; later they tilled and reaped in the fields. Modern jobs increasingly require working with people, words and code - they take brains, not muscle. Even for manual laborers - farmers, fisherman, lumberjacks - machinery such as tractors, hydraulics and chainsaws now shoulder a lot of the work. As physical strength becomes less necessary, our muscles will keep shrinking.</p>
<p>Our jaws and teeth also got smaller. Early, plant-eating hominins had huge molars and mandibles for grinding fibrous vegetables. As we shifted to meat, then started cooking food, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature16972">jaws and teeth shrank</a>. Modern processed food – chicken nuggets, Big Macs, cookie dough ice cream – needs even less chewing, so jaws will keep shrinking, and we’ll likely lose our wisdom teeth.</p>
<h2>Beauty</h2>
<p>After people left Africa 100,000 years ago, humanity’s far-flung tribes became isolated by deserts, oceans, mountains, glaciers and sheer distance. In various parts of the world, different selective pressures – different climates, lifestyles and beauty standards – caused our appearance to evolve in different ways. Tribes evolved distinctive skin colour, eyes, hair and facial features. </p>
<p>With civilisation’s rise and new technologies, these populations were linked again. Wars of conquest, empire building, colonisation and trade – including trade of other humans – all shifted populations, which interbred. Today, road, rail and aircraft link us too. Bushmen would walk 40 miles to find a partner; we’ll go 4,000 miles. We’re increasingly one, worldwide population – freely mixing. That will create a world of hybrids – light brown skinned, dark-haired, Afro-Euro-Australo-Americo-Asians, their skin colour and facial features tending toward a global average.</p>
<p>Sexual selection will further accelerate the evolution of our appearance. With most forms of natural selection no longer operating, mate choice will play a larger role. Humans might become more attractive, but more uniform in appearance. Globalised media may also create more uniform standards of beauty, pushing all humans towards a single ideal. Sex differences, however, could be exaggerated if the ideal is masculine-looking men and feminine-looking women. </p>
<h2>Intelligence and personality</h2>
<p>Last, our brains and minds, our most distinctively human feature, will evolve, perhaps dramatically. Over the past 6 million years, hominin <a href="https://humanorigins.si.edu/human-characteristics/brains">brain size roughly tripled</a>, suggesting selection for big brains driven by tool use, complex societies and language. It might seem inevitable that this trend will continue, but it probably won’t.</p>
<p>Instead, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.742639/full">our brains are getting smaller</a>. In Europe, brain size peaked <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41464021">10,000—20,000 years ago, just before we invented farming</a>. Then, brains got smaller. Modern humans have brains smaller than our ancient predecessors, or even medieval people. It’s unclear why.</p>
<p>It could be that fat and protein were scarce once we shifted to farming, making it more costly to grow and maintain large brains. Brains are also energetically expensive – they burn around 20% of our daily calories. In agricultural societies with frequent famine, a big brain might be a liability. </p>
<p>Maybe hunter-gatherer life was demanding in ways farming isn’t. In civilisation, you don’t need to outwit lions and antelopes, or memorise every fruit tree and watering hole within 1,000 square miles. Making and using bows and spears also requires fine motor control, coordination, the ability to track animals and trajectories — maybe the parts of our brains used for those things got smaller when we stopped hunting.</p>
<p>Or maybe living in a large society of specialists demands less brainpower than living in a tribe of generalists. Stone-age people mastered many skills – hunting, tracking, foraging for plants, making herbal medicines and poisons, crafting tools, waging war, making music and magic. Modern humans perform fewer, more specialised roles as part of vast social networks, exploiting division of labour. In a civilisation, we specialise on a trade, <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/3300">then rely on others for everything else</a>.</p>
<p>That being said, brain size isn’t everything: <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnana.2014.00046/full">elephants</a> and <a href="https://phys.org/news/2010-03-smart-killer-whales-orcas-2nd-biggest.html">orcas</a> have bigger brains than us, and Einstein’s brain was <a href="https://phys.org/news/2005-01-einsteins-brain.html">smaller than average</a>. Neanderthals had brains comparable to ours, but <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2013.0168">more of the brain was devoted to sight and control of the body</a>, suggesting less capacity for things like language and tool use. So how much the loss of brain mass affects overall intelligence is unclear. Maybe we lost certain abilities, while enhancing others that are more relevant to modern life. It’s possible that we’ve maintained processing power by having fewer, smaller neurons. Still, I worry about what that missing 10% of my grey matter did. </p>
<p>Curiously, domestic animals also <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23264664">evolved smaller brains</a>. Sheep lost 24% of their brain mass after domestication; for cows, it’s 26%; dogs, 30%. This raises an unsettling possibility. Maybe being more willing to passively go with the flow (perhaps even thinking less), like a domesticated animal, has been bred into us, like it was for them. </p>
<p>Our personalities must be evolving too. Hunter-gatherers’ lives required aggression. They hunted large mammals, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047248406002193">killed over partners</a> and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Constant-Battles-Why-We-Fight-ebook/dp/B00DTDFOFG/ref=sr_1_1?crid=BG0I0EJMQB9I&keywords=constant+battles&qid=1645453352&sprefix=wodehous%2Caps%2C316&sr=8-1">warred with neighbouring tribes</a>. We get meat from a store, and turn to police and courts to settle disputes. If war hasn’t disappeared, it <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace">now accounts for fewer deaths</a>, relative to population, than at any time in history. Aggression, now a maladaptive trait, could be bred out.</p>
<p>Changing social patterns will also change personalities. Humans live in much larger groups than other apes, forming tribes of around 1,000 in hunter-gatherers. But in today’s world people living in vast cities of millions. In the past, our relationships were necessarily few, and often lifelong. Now we inhabit seas of people, moving often for work, and in the process forming thousands of relationships, many fleeting and, increasingly, virtual. This world will push us to become more outgoing, open and tolerant. Yet navigating such vast social networks may also require we become more willing to adapt ourselves to them – to be more conformist.</p>
<p>Not everyone is psychologically well-adapted to this existence. Our instincts, desires and fears are largely those of stone-age ancestors, who found meaning in hunting and foraging for their families, warring with their neighbours and praying to ancestor-spirits in the dark. Modern society meets our material needs well, but is less able to meet the psychological needs of our primitive caveman brains. </p>
<p>Perhaps because of this, increasing numbers of people suffer from psychological issues such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/06/health/lonliness-aging-health-effects.html">loneliness</a>, anxiety and depression. Many turn to alcohol and other substances to cope. Selection against vulnerability to these conditions might improve our mental health, and make us happier as a species. But that could come at a price. Many great geniuses had their demons; leaders like Abraham Lincoln and Winston Churchill fought with depression, as did scientists such as Isaac Newton and Charles Darwin, and artists like Herman Melville and Emily Dickinson. Some, like Virginia Woolf, Vincent Van Gogh and Kurt Cobain, took their own lives. Others - Billy Holliday, Jimi Hendrix and Jack Kerouac – were destroyed by substance abuse. </p>
<p>A disturbing thought is that troubled minds will be removed from the gene pool – but potentially at the cost of eliminating the sort of spark that created visionary leaders, great writers, artists and musicians. Future humans might be better adjusted – but less fun to party with and less likely to launch a scientific revolution — stable, happy and boring.</p>
<h2>New species?</h2>
<p>There were once <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-other-humans-the-first-victims-of-the-sixth-mass-extinction-126638">nine human species</a>, now it’s just us. But could new human species evolve? For that to happen, we’d need isolated populations subject to distinct selective pressures. Distance no longer isolates us, but reproductive isolation could theoretically be achieved by selective mating. If people were culturally segregated – marrying based on religion, class, caste, or even politics – distinct populations, even species, might evolve. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/35">The Time Machine</a>, sci-fi novelist H.G. Wells saw a future where class created distinct species. Upper classes evolved into the beautiful but useless Eloi, and the working classes become the ugly, subterranean Morlocks – who revolted and enslaved the Eloi. </p>
<p>In the past, religion and lifestyle have sometimes produced genetically distinct groups, as seen in for example <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3032072">Jewish</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC31389">Gypsy</a> populations. Today, politics also divides us – could it divide us genetically? Liberals now move to be near other liberals, and <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0225405">conservatives to be near conservatives</a>; many on the left <a href="https://time.com/5896607/dating-political-ideology/">won’t date Trump supporters</a> and vice versa. </p>
<p>Could this create two species, with instinctively different views? Probably not. Still, to the extent culture divides us, it could drive evolution in different ways, in different people. If cultures become more diverse, this could maintain and increase human genetic diversity.</p>
<h2>Strange New Possibilities</h2>
<p>So far, I’ve mostly taken a historical perspective, looking back. But in some ways, the future might be radically unlike the past. Evolution itself has evolved.</p>
<p>One of the more extreme possibilities is directed evolution, where we actively control our species’ evolution. We already breed ourselves when we choose partners with appearances and personalities we like. For thousands of years, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3083418/">hunter-gatherers arranged marriages</a>, seeking good hunters for their daughters. Even where children chose partners, men were generally <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12110-004-1014-8">expected to seek approval of the bride’s parents</a>. Similar traditions survive elsewhere today. In other words, we breed our own children.</p>
<p>And going forward, we’ll do this with far more knowledge of what we’re doing, and more control over the genes of our progeny. We can already screen ourselves and <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/embryo-screening-and-the-ethics-of-human-60561/#:%7E:text=Also%20known%20as%20embryo%20screening,forced%20to%20make%20the%20difficult">embryos for genetic diseases</a>. We could potentially choose embryos for desirable genes, as we do with crops. Direct editing of the DNA of a human embryo has been <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00673-1">proven to be possible</a> — but seems morally abhorrent, effectively turning children into subjects of medical experimentation. And yet, if such technologies were proven safe, I could imagine a future where you’d be a bad parent <em>not</em> to give your children the best genes possible. </p>
<p>Computers also provide an entirely new selective pressure. As <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/20822/way-of-meeting-partner-heterosexual-us-couples/#:%7E:text=Surveys%20carried%20out%20and%20analyzed,2%20percent%20to%2039%20percent.">more and more matches are made on smartphones</a>, we are delegating decisions about what the next generation looks like to computer algorithms, who recommend our potential matches. <a href="https://tinder.com/">Digital code</a> now helps choose what genetic code passed on to future generations, just like it shapes what you stream or buy online. This might sound like dark science fiction, but it’s already happening. Our genes are being curated by computer, just like our playlists. It’s hard to know where this leads, but I wonder if it’s entirely wise to turn over the future of our species to iPhones, the internet and the companies behind them.</p>
<p>Discussions of human evolution are usually backward looking, as if the greatest triumphs and challenges were in the distant past. But as technology and culture enter a period of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankind-Yuval-Noah-Harari-ebook/dp/B00ICN066A/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2QHPQXXL0YKXN&keywords=sapiens&qid=1645456786&sprefix=sapiens%2Caps%2C124&sr=8-1">accelerating change</a>, our genes will too. Arguably, the most interesting parts of evolution aren’t life’s origins, dinosaurs, or Neanderthals, but what’s happening right now, our present – and our future. </p>
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<p><em>More <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/lifes-big-questions-80040?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=LifesBigQuestionsUK">Life’s Big Questions</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/happiness-is-feeling-content-more-important-than-purpose-and-goals-131503?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=LifesBigQuestionsUK">Happiness: is contentment more important than purpose and goals?</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/would-we-still-see-ourselves-as-human-if-other-hominin-species-hadnt-gone-extinct-166759">Would we still see ourselves as ‘human’ if other hominin species hadn’t gone extinct?</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/death-can-our-final-moment-be-euphoric-129648?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=LifesBigQuestionsUK">Death: can our final moment be euphoric?</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-the-big-bang-arise-from-nothing-171986">How could the Big Bang arise from nothing?</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/love-is-it-just-a-fleeting-high-fuelled-by-brain-chemicals-129201?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=LifesBigQuestionsUK">Love: is it just a fleeting high fuelled by brain chemicals?</a></em></p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas R. Longrich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
We’ll probably be less aggressive and more agreeable, but have smaller brains – a bit like a Golden Retriever, we’ll be friendly, but maybe not that interesting or bright.
Nicholas R. Longrich, Senior Lecturer in Paleontology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Bath
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/166002
2021-10-06T12:30:40Z
2021-10-06T12:30:40Z
Afrofuturism and its possibility of elsewhere: The power of political imagination
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423661/original/file-20210928-20-lsm24a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C27%2C2020%2C1201&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Afrofuturist's work is rooted in the desire to transform the present for Black people. Here actor Mouna Traoré in 'Brown Girl Begins' (2017) directed by Sharon Lewis set in a post-apocalyptic version of Toronto.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Urbansoul Inc</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pay attention to the visions for the future put forward in today’s world by politicians, intellectuals and scientists: </p>
<p>The development of technologies to <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/planting-an-ecosystem-on-mars">sustain human life on other planets</a>; <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2018/12/10/artificial-intelligence-and-the-future-of-humans/">new digital realities</a>; the <a href="https://stanmed.stanford.edu/2018winter/CRISPR-for-gene-editing-is-revolutionary-but-it-comes-with-risks.html">altering of human DNA</a>. </p>
<p>Who is this future for? </p>
<p>What is not recognized as possible in our future is equally telling: No substantial strategy to tackle climate change; <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/world/europe/coronavirus-inequality.html">few equitable responses to the COVID-19 pandemic</a>; no end to the ongoing <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-land-defenders-dont-call-me-resilient-ep-6-156632">dispossession of Indigenous lands</a> from <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/06/17/733497808/25-years-after-apartheid-ended-south-africas-land-rights-problem-is-boiling-over">South Africa</a> to Canada to <a href="https://yellowheadinstitute.org/2021/05/21/canada-and-israel-partners-in-the-settler-colonial-contract/">Palestine</a>; no basic services to those who live daily without food or clean drinking water, even in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23898-z">world’s richest countries</a>. </p>
<p>Progress, it seems, is measured by technological breakthroughs and not social uplift. Many of the “big visions” on offer for our future overlook those who wear the persistent wounds of slavery, genocide, colonialism and capitalist exploitation. </p>
<h2>Political potential</h2>
<p>Of course, there are those who have been doing the work of imagining revolutionary futures. Speculative fiction and philosophy, especially those works coming from Afrofuturists, focus on this imbalance of future propositions. Afrofuturists powerfully imagine “elsewhere” beyond our present alienation. Their work is rooted in the desire to transform the present for Black people. To do so, they imagine a reality in which Black people are the agents of their own story, countering those histories that discount and dismiss their contributions. </p>
<p>Cultural theorist Kodwo Eshun <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/ncr.2003.0021">defines Afrofuturism</a> as a practice to establish the historical character of Black culture by bringing African peoples into a global history denied to them.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423672/original/file-20210928-15-15zhbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423672/original/file-20210928-15-15zhbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423672/original/file-20210928-15-15zhbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423672/original/file-20210928-15-15zhbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423672/original/file-20210928-15-15zhbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423672/original/file-20210928-15-15zhbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423672/original/file-20210928-15-15zhbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423672/original/file-20210928-15-15zhbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Selwyn Hinds wrote the script for ‘Replay’ an episode for Jordan Peele’s ‘The Twilight Zone,’ starring Sanaa Lathan and Damson Idris (2019). He is a guest on our podcast, Don’t Call Me Resilient, EP 7 about Afro and Indigenous futurism.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The recent mainstreaming of Afrofuturistic stories like <em>Black Panther</em> and those by science fiction writers like N. K. Jemisin and Nnedi Okorafor have garnered critical praise for their inclusive and creative content. Yet the mainstreaming of Afrofuturism has, for the most part, glossed over its political potential. </p>
<p>Today, questions of agency and who exactly the future is built for are urgent political matters. In Canada, the federal government’s recent acknowledgement of historic atrocities committed against <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/canadian-heritage/campaigns/emancipation-day.html">Black</a> and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/maple-leaf/defence/2021/07/federal-statutory-holiday-national-day-for-truth-and-reconciliation.html">Indigenous</a> peoples is testament to the growing political dissent against the present and historical narratives on offer. </p>
<h2>Looking back to move forward</h2>
<p>The work of imagining alternate futures is also about imagining alternate pasts. Pasts in which Black and Indigenous people feature as more than just passive observers. It is about rewriting the narrative on agency and action and it is deeply political. </p>
<p>This desire to uncover the past is increasingly necessary today, particularly as a means of challenging systems of capitalism and white supremacy. The idea of an “elsewhere” represents possible histories as possible futures, those that <em>could have</em> been. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423063/original/file-20210924-21-2xzjvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cover of the book Fledgling by Octavia Butler." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423063/original/file-20210924-21-2xzjvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423063/original/file-20210924-21-2xzjvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423063/original/file-20210924-21-2xzjvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423063/original/file-20210924-21-2xzjvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423063/original/file-20210924-21-2xzjvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423063/original/file-20210924-21-2xzjvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423063/original/file-20210924-21-2xzjvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Octavia Butler’s books grapple with the legacies of slavery in America.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20200317-why-octavia-e-butlers-novels-are-so-relevant-today">Octavia Butler’s dystopian novels</a> like <em>Parable of the Sower</em> written in 1993, she grapples with legacies of slavery in America as well as with misogyny and class struggle. But beyond this, she built new worlds. She imagined different ways of relating to others. Her work explored the undesirable possibilities for the future, those that disrupt the narrative of our historical progress. She imagined not simply what was possible in the future, but <em>who</em> was possible. </p>
<p>Butler’s work demonstrates the power of creative re-imagining. Her body of work reminds us that the untold stories of the marginalized represent new possibilities for liberation.</p>
<h2>New possibilities</h2>
<p>In Canada, growing political dissent has called for <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/protest-ottawa-arrests-day-of-action-for-anishinabeg-1.5811276">solidarity among oppressed groups</a>. This dissent represents a shift in what is considered possible today. </p>
<p>Polls conducted in 2020, in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder found that 67 per cent of Canadian respondents had <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7356841/black-lives-matter-canada-poll/">a favourable view of the Black Lives Matter</a> movement. That same year, 51 per cent of Canadians were in favour of <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-and-polls/Canadians-Divided-On-Whether-To-Defund-Police">defunding the police</a>, with younger people voicing even stronger support. </p>
<p>This year, 89 per cent of Canadians said they <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/08/05/canadians-want-a-wealth-tax-and-are-willing-to-vote-for-it.html">want a wealth tax</a> because they are increasingly dismayed by the gap between rich and poor as evidenced throughout the pandemic. </p>
<p>After the mass graves of Indigenous children on residential school grounds were uncovered this summer, a <a href="https://www.afn.ca/years-after-release-of-trc-report-most-canadians-want-accelerated-action-to-remedy-damage-done-by-residential-school-system-says-poll/">majority of Canadians want to see immediate action on First Nations priorities</a>. </p>
<p>But despite these shifts in public consciousness, conversations of what comes next are few and far between. The work of visualising alternate futures, and possibilities beyond our present conditions requires moving beyond the current way of seeing struggle and trauma — as a source of the strength of one’s character, invoking the language of “resilience” to explain the survival of marginalized populations. Instead, our aim should be to recognize the work of the historically neglected to imagine elsewhere both in their past and present.</p>
<h2>Finding elsewhere</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381818/original/file-20210201-13-1g0n3ld.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/ca/podcasts">Click here to listen to Don’t Call Me Resilient</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Those who continue to be deliberately neglected in the present are constantly generating new possibilities for our collective future through creative dissent. These are communities who have always attempted find an “elsewhere” by revisiting the past and imagining new futures in what was forgotten. </p>
<p>Through their creative imaginings, the lesson we should glean from Afrofuturists is the aim to shift our understanding of what is possible; to help us build worlds from the seeds of our own social, political and philosophical traditions.</p>
<iframe height="200px" width="100%" frameborder="no" scrolling="no" seamless="" src="https://player.simplecast.com/add6ca9a-00ee-4443-b95b-e20204f36a6f?dark=true"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-572" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/572/661898416fdc21fc4fdef6a5379efd7cac19d9d5/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166002/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lina Nasr El Hag Ali does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Afrofuturist’s work is rooted in the desire to transform the present for Black people. To do so, they imagine a reality in which Black people are the agents of their own story, countering histories that discount and dismiss them.
Lina Nasr El Hag Ali, Lecturer, OCAD University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/163066
2021-08-02T12:38:56Z
2021-08-02T12:38:56Z
What will the Earth be like in 500 years?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412941/original/file-20210723-13-19pwsrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C23%2C5114%2C3394&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The planet and the way we live on it are constantly changing.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/china-guangxi-province-girl-looking-at-globe-in-royalty-free-image/200512222-001">Buena Vista Images via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><em>Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p>What will the Earth be like in 500 years? — Lotte, Brookline, Massachusetts</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>Scientists can make some pretty accurate forecasts about the future. But predicting what the Earth will be like 500 years from now is a difficult task because there are many factors at play. Imagine Christopher Columbus in 1492 trying to predict the Americas of today!</p>
<p>We do know that two main types of processes change our planet: One involves natural cycles, like the way the planet rotates and moves around the Sun, and the other is caused by life forms, especially humans.</p>
<h2>The Earth itself is on the move</h2>
<p>The Earth is constantly changing. </p>
<p>It <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Milankovitch">wobbles</a>, <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2948/milankovitch-orbital-cycles-and-their-role-in-earths-climate/">the angle of its tilt</a> changes and even its <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-0621-2">orbit changes</a> to bring the Earth closer to or farther from the Sun. These changes happen over tens of thousands of years, and they have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.4474">responsible for ice ages</a>.</p>
<p>Five hundred years isn’t very long in terms of geology.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qKY7AN3tB_s?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How Earth’s orbit affects life on the surface of the planet.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Humans are changing the planet</h2>
<p>The second big influence on the planet is living things. The effects of life on the planet are harder to predict. Disrupting one part of an ecosystem can knock a lot of other things off kilter.</p>
<p>Humans in particular are changing the Earth in many ways.</p>
<p>They <a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/forest-loss">cut down forests</a> and break up important wildlife habitats to build cities and grow crops. They move invasive species around the planet, <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-zebra-mussels-and-why-should-we-care-about-them?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products">disrupting ecosystems</a>. </p>
<p>They also <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/">contribute to global warming</a>. People are causing the climate to change, mostly by burning fossil fuels that release more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the planet and atmosphere can handle.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FSBydPkLEII?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How humans are contributing to global warming.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Normally, greenhouse gases trap heat from the Sun the way the glass of a greenhouse does, keeping Earth warmer than it would be otherwise. That can be useful – until we get too much. </p>
<p>The result of <a href="https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/">too much carbon dioxide</a> is that temperatures rise, and that can lead to dangerously hot summer days and melting ice in <a href="https://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/30/greenland-ice-loss-2002-2020/">Greenland</a> and <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/265/video-antarctic-ice-mass-loss-2002-2020/">Antarctica</a>. Melting ice sheets raise the oceans, causing <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-tide-flood-risk-is-accelerating-putting-coastal-economies-at-risk-164481">coastal areas to flood</a>.</p>
<p>That’s what Earth is facing right now. These changes could lead to a very different planet in 500 years, depending in large part on how willing humans are to change their ways. A warming planet can also contribute to extreme weather like <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves">heat waves</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-was-a-record-breaker-and-its-raising-more-concerns-about-climate-change-150495">storms</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/another-dangerous-fire-season-is-looming-in-the-western-u-s-and-the-drought-stricken-region-is-headed-for-a-water-crisis-160848">droughts</a> that can change the land. All of Earth’s living forms are at risk.</p>
<h2>Learning from the past 500 years</h2>
<p>Looking back at the past 500 years, the <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300206111/biodiversity-and-climate-change">living part of the Earth</a>, called the biosphere, has changed dramatically.</p>
<p>The number of humans has increased from <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html">around 500 million people</a> to over 7.5 billion today. <a href="https://www.iucn.org/sites/dev/files/import/downloads/species_extinction_05_2007.pdf">More than 800</a> plant and animal species have become extinct because of human activities over that period. As the human population grows, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24105996">other species have less space</a> to roam. Sea level rise means even less land, and rising temperatures will send many species migrating to better climates.</p>
<p>Not all of Earth’s changes are caused by humans, but humans have worsened some of them. A major challenge today is getting people to stop doing things that create problems, like burning fossil fuels that contribute to climate change. This is one global problem that requires countries worldwide and the people within them to work toward the same goal.</p>
<p>Getting back to Christopher Columbus, he probably couldn’t have imagined a highway full of cars or a mobile phone. Technology will no doubt improve over the next 500 years, too. But so far, tech solutions haven’t scaled up fast enough to solve climate change. To keep doing the same things and expect someone else to fix the mess later would be a risky, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-cant-reverse-climate-change-with-negative-emissions-technologies-103504">expensive gamble</a>.</p>
<p>So, the Earth in 500 years may be unrecognizable. Or, if humans are willing to change their behaviors, it may persist with its vibrant forests, oceans, fields and cities for many more centuries, along with its most successful residents, humankind.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com</a>. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.</em></p>
<p><em>And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The Earth is constantly changing in natural ways, but most of those changes are very slow. Humans are speeding up other changes with global warming.
Michael A. Little, Professor Emeritus of Anthropology, Binghamton University, State University of New York
William D. MacDonald, Professor Emeritus, Department of Geological Sciences, Binghamton University, State University of New York
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/164511
2021-07-20T13:32:05Z
2021-07-20T13:32:05Z
Billionaire space race: the ultimate symbol of capitalism’s flawed obsession with growth
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411894/original/file-20210719-13-16uy9dq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C242%2C1540%2C1199&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/hitchhiking-astronaut-5259414/">Tom Leishman/Pexels</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids, laments the Rocket Man in Elton John’s timeless classic. In fact, it’s cold as hell. But that doesn’t seem to worry a new generation of space entrepreneurs intent on colonising the “final frontier” as fast as possible. </p>
<p>Don’t get me wrong. I’m no sullen technophobe. As lockdown projects go, Nasa’s landing of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-perseverance-rover-lands-on-mars-theres-a-lot-we-already-know-about-the-red-planet-from-meteorites-found-on-earth-155459">Perseverance rover</a> on the surface of the red planet earlier this year was a hell of a blast. Watching it reminded me that I once led a high school debate defending the motion: this house believes that humanity should reach for the stars. </p>
<p>It must have been around the time that Caspar Weinberger was trying to persuade President Nixon <a href="https://www.wired.com/2013/09/ending-apollo-1968/">not to cancel</a> the Apollo space programme. My brothers and I had watched the monochrome triumph of the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/apollo11.html">Apollo 11 landing</a> avidly in 1969. We’d witnessed the near disaster of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/missions/apollo13.html">Apollo 13</a> – immortalised in a 1995 Hollywood <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/apr/17/apollo-13-tom-hanks-space-ron-howard">film</a> – when Jim Lovell (played by Tom Hanks) and two rookie astronauts narrowly escaped with their lives by using the Lunar Module as an emergency life raft. We knew it was exciting up there.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YwG4F-16Tno?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>I remember later going to see Apollo 13 (the film) with a friend who wasn’t born when the mission itself took place. “What did you think?” I asked as we came out of the cinema. “It was OK,” said my friend. “Just not very believable.”</p>
<p>But we kids were glued to our black-and-white TV sets the entire week of the original mission. We watched in horror as CO₂ levels rose in the Lunar Module. We endured the endless blackout as the returning astronauts plunged perilously back to Earth. We held our breath with the rest of the world as the expected four minutes stretched to five and hope began to fade. It was a full six minutes before the camera finally came into focus on the command module’s parachutes – safely deployed above the Pacific Ocean. We felt the endorphin rush. We knew it was believable.</p>
<p>That was 1970. This is now. And here I am again on the edge of another sofa, in the lingering uncertainty of the time of COVID-19, waiting for signs of arrival from another re-entry blackout on another barren rock, devoid of breathable atmosphere, 200 million miles away. And when the Perseverance Rover finally touches down on the surface of Mars: that same exhilaration. That same endorphin rush. Quite difficult to witness the jubilation behind the masks at Nasa’s mission control without feeling a glimmer of vicarious joy. Hope, even. </p>
<p>But Nasa’s clever science experiment is just the tip of an expansionary iceberg. A teaser, if you will, for an ambitious dream that is being driven faster and faster by huge commercial interests. A curious twist in a debate that has been raging now for almost half a century. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Red Martian landscape." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411858/original/file-20210719-21-1wp8mnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411858/original/file-20210719-21-1wp8mnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411858/original/file-20210719-21-1wp8mnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411858/original/file-20210719-21-1wp8mnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411858/original/file-20210719-21-1wp8mnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411858/original/file-20210719-21-1wp8mnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411858/original/file-20210719-21-1wp8mnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nasa’s Perseverance Mars rover used its dual-camera Mastcam-Z imager to capture this image. a hill about 2.5km away.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mars.nasa.gov/resources/25904/mastcam-z-views-santa-cruz-on-mars/">NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU/MSSS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Growth wars</h2>
<p>Ever since 1972, when a team of MIT scientists published a massively influential report on the <a href="https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/">Limits to Growth</a>, <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6468/950">economists have been fighting</a> about whether it’s possible for the economy to expand forever. Those who believe it can, appeal to the <a href="https://andrewmcafee.org/more-from-less/overivew">power of technology</a> to “decouple” economic activity from its effects on the planet. Those (like me) who believe it can’t point to the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332500379_Is_Green_Growth_Possible">limited evidence for decoupling</a> at anything like the pace that’s needed to avoid a climate emergency or prevent a catastrophic decline in biodiversity. </p>
<p>The growth debate often hangs on the power you attribute to technology to save us. Usually it’s the technophiles arguing for infinite growth on a finite planet – sometimes putting their hopes in speculative technologies such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-co-capture-technology-is-not-the-magic-bullet-against-climate-change-115413">direct air capture</a> or dangerous ones like nuclear power. And usually it’s the sceptics arguing for a <a href="Http://www.timjackson.org.uk/postgrowth">post-growth economy</a>. But the simple division between technophiles and technophobes has never been particularly helpful. Very few growth sceptics reject technology completely. No one at all is asking humanity to return to the cave. </p>
<p>My own research teams at the University of Surrey have been <a href="https://www.cusp.ac.uk/team/team/t_jackson/">exploring the vital role</a> of sustainable technology in transforming the economy for almost three decades now. But we’ve also shown how the dynamics of capitalism – in particular its relentless pursuit of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/opinion/sunday/lets-be-less-productive.html">productivity growth</a> – continually push society towards materialistic goals, and undermine those parts of the economy such as <a href="Http://www.timjackson.org.uk/pwg">care, craft and creativity</a>, which are essential to our quality of life. </p>
<p>And now suddenly, along comes a group of self-confessed technology lovers finally admitting that the planet is too small for us. Yes, you were right, they imply: the Earth cannot sustain infinite growth. That’s why we have to expand into space. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>This story is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> and is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects to tackle societal and scientific challenges.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>Wait. What just happened? Did somebody move the goalposts? Something is wrong. Maybe it’s me. One thing I know for sure. I’m no longer the same kid I was – the one from the debating society. This house believes that humanity should grow the fuck up. </p>
<p>Before it spends <a href="https://www.sciencefocus.com/space/top-10-what-are-the-top-10-most-expensive-space-missions/">trillions of dollars</a> littering its <a href="https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/The_cost_of_space_debris#:%7E:text=Space%20debris%20is%20expensive%2C%20and%20will%20become%20even%20more%20so&text=For%20satellites%20in%20geostationary%20orbit,higher%20than%205%E2%80%9310%25.">techno-junk</a> around the solar system, this house believes that humanity should pay a little more attention to what’s happening right here and now. On this planet.</p>
<h2>The human condition</h2>
<p>Perhaps ironically, it was from space that we saw it first. In October 1957, the Soviets sent an unmanned orbital satellite called <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_924.html">Sputnik</a> into space. It was one of those odd moments in history (like the coronavirus) that dramatically reshapes our social world. Sputnik kicked off the space race, intensified the arms race and heightened the cold war. It was a huge blow to US self-esteem not to be the first nation to reach space and it was the jolt it used to kickstart the Apollo Moon shot. No one likes coming second. Least of all the most powerful people on the planet.</p>
<p>But Sputnik also signalled the beginning of a new relationship between humanity and its earthly home. As the political philosopher <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/arendt/">Hannah Arendt</a> remarked in the prologue to her 1958 masterpiece, <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Human_Condition/bGlwDwAAQBAJ">The Human Condition</a>, going into space allowed us to grasp our planetary predicament for the first time in history. It was a reminder that “the Earth is the quintessence of the human condition”. And nature itself, “for all we know, may be unique in providing human beings with a habitat in which they can move and breathe without effort and without artifice”.</p>
<p>Fair point. And nothing we’ve learned in the intervening years has changed that prognosis. Mars may be the most habitable planet in the solar system, outside our own. But it’s still a very far cry from the beauty of home – whose fragility we only truly learned to appreciate fully from the images sent back to us from space.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411210/original/file-20210714-27-3ia7pw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A view of Earth rising from the Moon." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411210/original/file-20210714-27-3ia7pw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411210/original/file-20210714-27-3ia7pw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411210/original/file-20210714-27-3ia7pw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411210/original/file-20210714-27-3ia7pw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411210/original/file-20210714-27-3ia7pw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411210/original/file-20210714-27-3ia7pw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411210/original/file-20210714-27-3ia7pw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Earthrise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/images/297755main_GPN-2001-000009_full.jpg">Nasa</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nature photographer Galen Rowell once called William Anders’ iconic photo <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/home/earthrise.html">Earthrise</a> – taken from the Apollo 8 module in lunar orbit – “the most influential environmental photograph ever taken”. Earthrise brought home to us, in one astonishing image, the stark reality that this shining orb was – and still is – humanity’s best chance for anything that might meaningfully be called the “good life”.</p>
<p>Its beauty is our beauty. Its fragility is our fragility. And its peril is our peril.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>An inconvenient truth</h2>
<p>In the very same year that Arendt published The Human Condition, a Shell executive named Charles Jones presented <a href="http://www.climatefiles.com/trade-group/american-petroleum-institute/1958-air-pollution-research-program-smoke-fumes/">a paper</a> to the fossil fuel industry’s trade group, the American Petroleum Institute, warning of the impact of carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion on the atmosphere. It was early evidence of climate change. </p>
<p>It was also evidence, according to lawsuits <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2021/jun/30/climate-crimes-fossil-fuels-cities-states-interactive">now being filed</a> by cities and states in the US, that companies like Shell knew it was happening more than 60 years ago – three decades before James Hansen’s <a href="https://grist.org/article/james-hansens-legacy-scientists-reflect-on-climate-change-in-1988-2018-and-2048/">scientific testimony</a> to Congress in 1988 brought global warming to public attention. And they did nothing about it. Worse, argue plaintiffs like the <a href="https://eu.delawareonline.com/story/news/2020/09/10/delaware-sues-exxon-chevron-and-bp-role-climate-change/3457202001/">state of Delaware</a>, they lied over and again to cover up this “inconvenient truth”.</p>
<p>Why such a thing could happen is now clear. Evidence of their impact was a direct threat to the profits of some of the most powerful corporations on the planet. Profit is the bedrock of capitalism. And as I argue in <a href="http://www.timjackson.org.uk/postgrowth">my new book</a>, we have allowed capitalism to trump everything: work, life, hope – even good governance. The most enlightened governments in the world have turned a blind eye to the need for urgent action. Now we’re on the verge of being too late to fix it. Achieving net zero by 2050 is <a href="https://theconversation.com/2050-is-too-late-we-must-drastically-cut-emissions-much-sooner-121512">no longer enough</a>. We need much more, much faster to avoid ending up in an unliveable <a href="https://theconversation.com/hothouse-earth-our-planet-has-been-here-before-heres-what-it-looked-like-101413">hothouse</a>.</p>
<p>Even as I write, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/10/us/west-heat-wave-death-valley.html">record-breaking temperatures</a>, 10-20°C above the seasonal average, have forced citizens on the west coast of North America into <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/01/portland-heatwave-like-microwave-hairdryer-blowing/">underground shelters</a> to avoid the searing heat. <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/us-wildfires-firefighters-grapple-with-raging-blazes-as-temperatures-soar-to-54c-in-californias-baking-death-valley-12354197">Wildfires</a> are raging in California’s Death Valley, where temperatures have reached an astonishing 54°C. On the storm-struck east coast, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/09/new-york-city-storm-flooding-climate-change">flood waters</a> have inundated the New York subway system. Thousands remain homeless and hundreds are still missing, meanwhile, as <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/germany-and-belgium-floods-rescuers-search-for-hundreds-of-missing-as-more-than-120-die-in-historic-disaster-12357532">historic flooding</a> across central Europe has left almost 200 people dead. </p>
<p>In the face of the blindingly obvious, even recalcitrant presidents and politicians are at last beginning to acknowledge the scale of the peril in which our relentless pursuit of economic growth has placed the planet. And in principle they still have time to do something about it.</p>
<p>As I and many colleagues have argued, the pandemic offers us a unique opportunity to fashion <a href="https://www.eesc.europa.eu/en/news-media/press-releases/economy-environment-and-peoples-well-being-must-go-hand-hand-post-covid-eu">a different kind of economy</a>. The 26th Conference of the Parties to the UN Climate Change Convention (<a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a>) in Glasgow in November 2021 could well be the place to do that. Whether that happens or not will depend as much on vision as it does on science. And on our courage to confront the inequalities of power that led us to this point.</p>
<p>It will also depend on us going back to first principles and asking ourselves: how exactly should we aim to live in the only habitable world in the known universe? What is the nature of the good life available to us here? What can prosperity <a href="http://www.cusp.ac.uk">possibly mean</a> for a promiscuous species on a finite planet?</p>
<p>The question is almost as old as the hills. But the contemporary answer to it is paralysingly narrow. Cast in the garb of late capitalism, prosperity has been captured by the ideology of “growth at all costs”: an insistence that more is always better. Despite <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Jq23mSDh9U">overwhelming evidence</a> that relentless expansion is undermining nature and driving us towards a devastating climate emergency, the “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMrtLsQbaok">fairytales of eternal growth</a>” still reign supreme.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Group of people sit in forest near bonfire." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412110/original/file-20210720-13-1b4b1fw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412110/original/file-20210720-13-1b4b1fw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412110/original/file-20210720-13-1b4b1fw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412110/original/file-20210720-13-1b4b1fw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412110/original/file-20210720-13-1b4b1fw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412110/original/file-20210720-13-1b4b1fw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412110/original/file-20210720-13-1b4b1fw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shouldn’t humanity focus on shoring up the good life on Earth before we race off into space?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/fDostElVhN8">Tegan Mierle/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Zero gravity</h2>
<p>It’s an ironic twist in the tale of the debate society kid I used to be that I’ve spent most of my professional life confronting those fairytales of growth. Don’t ask me how that happened. By accident mostly.</p>
<p>I toyed with the idea of studying astrophysics. But I ended up studying Maths at Cambridge, where I confess to being baffled by the complexity of it all, until I realised that even math is just a trick. Quite literally a formula. Believe in it and you can travel to the stars and back. In your mind, at least.</p>
<p>And there I was wandering around in zero G, when I woke up one day (in April 1986) to find that the Number four reactor at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine had suffered a catastrophic meltdown. I suddenly realised that the very same skills I’d spent my life developing were leading humanity not towards the stars but away from the paradise we already inhabit.</p>
<p>So yes. I changed my mind. The next day I walked into the Greenpeace office in London and asked what I could do to help. They set me working on the <a href="https://www.elsevier.com/books/renewable-energy/jackson/978-1-4832-5695-5">economics of renewable energy</a> I became, accidentally, an economist. (Economics needs more accidental economists.) And that’s when it began to dawn on me that learning how to live well on this fragile planet is far more important than dreaming about the next one. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/virgin-galactic-and-blue-origin-can-they-be-more-than-space-joyrides-for-millionaires-164513">Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin: can they be more than 'space' joyrides for millionaires?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Mine is bigger than yours</h2>
<p>Not so the space race billionaires. A handful of unbelievably powerful men, whose wealth has <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2021/04/30/american-billionaires-have-gotten-12-trillion-richer-during-the-pandemic/">exploded</a> massively throughout the pandemic, are now busy trying to persuade us that the future lies not here on Earth but out there among the stars. </p>
<p>Tesla founder and serial entrepreneur, Elon Musk is one of these new rocket men. “Those who attack space,” he <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1414782972474048516">tweeted</a> recently, “maybe don’t realise that space represents hope for so many people”. That may be true of course in a world where huge inequalities of wealth and privilege strip hope from the lives of billions of people. But, as the spouse of a Nasa flight controller pointed out, it obscures the <a href="https://www.salon.com/2021/07/07/no-billionaires-wont-escape-to-space-while-the-world-burns/?fbclid=IwAR3Hzv3TGOuflDjlSatFJQN0_nastGp1MCqP-AOU0PJrUQWtHIMxNcP-BEM">extraordinary demands</a> of escaping from Mother Earth, in terms of energy materials, people and time. </p>
<p>Undeterred, the rocket men gaze starward. If resources are the problem, then space must be the answer. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is pretty explicit about his own expansionary vision. “We can have a trillion humans in the solar system,” <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/jeff-bezos-foresees-trillion-people-living-millions-space-colonies-here-ncna1006036">he once declared</a>. “Which means we’d have a thousand Mozarts and a thousand Einsteins. This would be an incredible civilisation.”</p>
<p>Bezos and Musk have spent their lockdown contesting the top two places on the Forbes <a href="https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/">rich list</a>. They’ve also been playing “mine is bigger than yours” in their own private space race for a couple of decades now. Bezos’s personal wealth <a href="https://inequality.org/great-divide/updates-billionaire-pandemic/">almost doubled</a> during the course of a pandemic that destroyed the lives and livelihoods of millions. He’s now stepping down to spend more time on Blue Origin, the company he hopes will deliver vast human colonies across the solar system.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.spacex.com/mission/">declared aim</a> of Musk’s rival company, SpaceX, is “to make humanity multiplanetary”. Just like <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/our-greatest-political-novelist">Kim Stanley Robinson</a>’s science fiction <a href="https://space.nss.org/book-review-red-mars/">trilogy</a> back in the 1990s, Musk aims to establish a <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/elon-musk-drops-details-for-spacexs-million-person-mars-mega-colony/">permanent human colony</a> on Mars. To get there, he reasons, we need very big rockets – or, in the original terminology of SpaceX, Big Fucking Rockets (<a href="https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/19/18-new-details-about-elon-musks-redesigned-moon-bound-big-fing-rocket/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJd2kjzq4ZnY7YFIEcz1ZTmBPm7MmuQ_2wfNs9erxRMlo4qDio6p9lDkDY7I00A3KvMN5ZKZkkkxZB_ldqttJgYIGM2a4zE5NLSWLYRZMI11-1xbvn31Q6uJBOOn11q5oVbllHCYDhH3ygdBFbWUXOu2H2tXqDsVhtsvMKEe5s_w">BFRs</a>) – eventually capable of transporting scores of people and hundreds of tonnes of equipment millions of miles across the solar system.</p>
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<p>The BFRs have now given way to a series of (more sedately named) Starships. And to prove his green credentials Musk desperately wants these <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/">starships</a> to be reusable. So much so that SpaceX conspired to blow up four consecutive Starship prototypes in quick succession during the first four months of 2021 trying unsuccessfully to re-land them.</p>
<p>Move fast and break things is the Silicon Valley motto of course. But eventually you’ve got to bring the goods home. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/5/6/the-starship-has-landed-spacex-nails-reusable-craft-touchdown">Starship SN15</a> finally achieved that on May 5 – three weeks after SpaceX had landed a massive <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/16/science/spacex-moon-nasa.html">US$2.9 billion</a> contract from Nasa, nudging Blue Origin into the space race shadows.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/space-tourism-rockets-emit-100-times-more-co-per-passenger-than-flights-imagine-a-whole-industry-164601">Space tourism: rockets emit 100 times more CO₂ per passenger than flights – imagine a whole industry</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Not wanting to be outdone, Bezos came up with what he must have hoped was the ultimate comeback. When Blue Origin’s <a href="https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/">New Shepard</a> rocket – which is also reusable – made its first manned space flight on July 20, he and his brother Mark would be two of the first few passengers on board. Wow, Jeff! Kudos man! Now you really show us your <em>cojones</em>! Nobody likes coming second. Least of all the most powerful people on the planet.</p>
<p>But sometimes you get no choice. Out of the blue, without so much as a by-your-leave, Virgin boss, Richard Branson swooped in to steal everyone’s thunder. On July 11, nine days before Bezos’s big day, Branson became the first ever billionaire to <a href="https://theconversation.com/virgin-galactic-space-tourism-takes-off-with-bransons-inaugural-flight-164142">launch himself into space</a>.</p>
<p>And for a cool US$250,000, he promised us, you too can be one of Virgin Galactic’s 600 or so breathless customers, waiting to enjoy three or four weightless minutes gazing back in rapture at the planet you’ve left behind. Apparently, Musk has <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/12/22573850/elon-musk-richard-branson-spaceplane-virgin-galactic">already signed up</a>. Bezos doesn’t need to. He’s made his own <a href="https://www.space.com/news/live/blue-origin-jeff-bezos-launch-updates">virgin space flight</a> now. </p>
<h2>Prosperity as health</h2>
<p>The space rhetoric of the super-rich betrays a mentality that may once have served humanity well. Some would say it’s a quintessential feature of capitalism. Innovation upon innovation. A driving ambition to expand and explore. A primal urge to escape our origins and reach for the next horizon. Space travel is a natural extension of our <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/02/10/can-we-have-prosperity-without-growth">obsession with economic growth</a>. It’s the crowning jewel of capitalism. Further and faster is its frontier creed. </p>
<p>I’ve spent much of my professional life as a critic of that creed, not just for environmental reasons but on social grounds as well. The seven years I spent as economics commissioner on the UK’s <a href="http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/">Sustainable Development Commission</a> and my subsequent research at the <a href="http://www.cusp.ac.uk">Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity</a> revealed something fundamental about our aspirations for the good life. Something that has been underlined by the experience of the pandemic. </p>
<p>Prosperity is as much about health as it is about wealth. Ask people what matters most in their lives and the chances are that this will come out somewhere near the top of the list. Health for themselves. Health for their friends and their families. Health too – sometimes – for the fragile planet on which we live and on whose health we ourselves depend. </p>
<p>There’s something fascinating in this idea. Because it confronts the obsession with growth head on. As Aristotle pointed out in <a href="http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/nicomachaen.html">Nicomachean Ethics</a> (a book named after his physician father), the good life is not a relentless search for more, but a continual process of finding a “virtuous” balance between too little and too much.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three people cross a rope bridge against mountain backdrop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411647/original/file-20210716-17-1msba3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411647/original/file-20210716-17-1msba3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411647/original/file-20210716-17-1msba3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411647/original/file-20210716-17-1msba3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411647/original/file-20210716-17-1msba3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411647/original/file-20210716-17-1msba3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411647/original/file-20210716-17-1msba3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prosperity requires a balancing act, not a race to the stars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tourist-walks-on-rope-suspension-bridge-1999042511">JuliaStar/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Population health provides an obvious example of this idea. Too little food and we’re struggling with diseases of malnutrition. Too much and we’re tipped into the “diseases of affluence” that <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight">now kill more people</a> than under-nutrition does. Good health depends on us finding and nurturing this balance. </p>
<p>This task is always tricky of course, even at the individual level. Just think about the challenge of keeping your exercise, your diet and your appetites in line with the outcome of a healthy body weight. But as <a href="https://www.timjackson.org.uk/postgrowth">I’ve argued</a>, living inside a system that has its sights continually focused on more makes the task near impossible. Obesity has tripled since 1975. Almost two-fifths of adults over 18 are overweight. Capitalism not only fails to recognise the point where balance lies. It has absolutely no idea how to stop when it gets there.</p>
<p>You’d think our brush with mortality through the pandemic would have brought some of this home to us. You’d think it would give us pause for thought about what really matters to us: the kind of world we want for our children; the kind of society we want to live in. And for many people it has. In a survey carried out during lockdown in the UK, <a href="https://www.thersa.org/press/releases/2019/brits-see-cleaner-air-stronger-social-bonds-and-changing-food-habits-amid-lockdown">85% of respondents</a> found something in their changed conditions they felt worth keeping and fewer than 10% wanted a complete return to normal. </p>
<p>When life and health are at stake, the ungodly scramble for wealth and status feels less and less attractive. Even the lure of technology pales. Family, conviviality and a sense of purpose come to the fore. These are the things that many people found they lacked most throughout the pandemic. But their importance in our lives was not a COVID accident: they are the most fundamental elements of a sustainable prosperity.</p>
<h2>The denial of death</h2>
<p>Something even more surprising has <a href="https://timjackson.org.uk/consumerism-theodicy/">emerged</a> during my three decades of research. Behind consumer capitalism, behind the frontier mentality, beyond the urge to expand forever lies a deep-seated and pervasive anxiety. </p>
<p>What does day two look like, Bezos once <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTwXS2H_iJo&ab_channel=AmazonNews">asked a crowd</a> of the faithful, referring to his famous maxim about the need to innovate. “Day two is stasis, followed by irrelevance, followed by excruciatingly painful decline, followed by death,” he said. “And that. Is why. It is always. Day one!” His audience loved it.</p>
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<p>Musk plays out his own inner demons just as disarmingly. “I’m not trying to be anyone’s saviour,” <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_future_we_re_building_and_boring/transcript?language=en">he once told</a> TED’s head curator, Chris Anderton. “I’m just trying to think about the future – and not be sad.” Again, the applause was deafening.</p>
<p>A well-trained therapist could have a field day with all of this. Take that miraculous day a few weeks after the Perseverance rover started sending home the most amazing selfies in the universe, when the Ingenuity helicopter made its <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQMTo0KuN5M">virgin flight</a> in the wafer thin atmosphere of Mars. It was the kind of outcome that could have intelligence agencies drooling over far less benign uses of the technology. But there was also something pretty existential going on.</p>
<p>The faint whispering of the Martian wind, relayed faithfully across the solar system, doesn’t just confirm the possibilities for aerial flight on an alien planet. It’s grist to the mill of an essential belief that human beings are endlessly creative and fiendishly clever.</p>
<p>Our visceral response to these momentary triumphs speaks to a branch of psychology called <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/basics/terror-management-theory">terror management theory</a> drawn from the work of cultural anthropologist Ernest Becker. It was explored in particular in his astonishing 1973 book <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Denial_of_Death/jyqGDwAAQBAJ">The Denial of Death</a>. In it, Becker argues that modern society has lost its way, precisely because we’ve become terrified of confronting the inevitability of our own demise.</p>
<p>Terror management theory tells us that, when mortality becomes “salient”, instead of addressing the underlying fear, we turn for comfort to the things which make us feel good. Capitalism itself is a massive comfort blanket, designed to help us never confront the mortality that awaits us all. So too are the dreams of the rocket men.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Placards at an environmental protest, one of which reads 'capitalism is killing us'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411283/original/file-20210714-25-euky4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411283/original/file-20210714-25-euky4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411283/original/file-20210714-25-euky4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411283/original/file-20210714-25-euky4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411283/original/file-20210714-25-euky4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411283/original/file-20210714-25-euky4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411283/original/file-20210714-25-euky4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Capitalism is killing us’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brisbane-queensland-australia-october-11-2019-1609351117">Alex Bee/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Beyond lockdown</h2>
<p>When Sputnik kickstarted the first “space race” six decades ago, a US newspaper headline called it “one step toward [our] escape from imprisonment to the Earth”. Arendt read those words with astonishment. She saw there a deep-seated “<a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Human_Condition/bGlwDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=hannah%20arendt%20'rebellion%20against%20human%20existence'&pg=PA2&printsec=frontcover&bsq=hannah%20arendt%20'rebellion%20against%20human%20existence'">rebellion against human existence</a>”. It isn’t just the pandemic that locks us down, the implication is. It’s the entire human condition.</p>
<p>The anxiety we feel is nothing new. The choice between confronting our fears and running away from them has always been a profound one. It’s exactly the choice we’re facing now. As vaccine roll-out brings a glimmer of light at the end of COVID-19, the temptation to rush into wild escapism is massive.</p>
<p>But for all its glamour, the “final frontier” is at best an amusement and at worst a fatal distraction from the urgent task of rebuilding a society ravaged by social injustice, climate change and a loss of faith in the future.</p>
<p>With most of us still reeling from what the World Health Organisation has called a <a href="https://theconversation.com/domestic-abuse-and-mental-ill-health-twin-shadow-pandemics-stalk-the-second-wave-148412">shadow pandemic</a> in mental health, any kind of escape plan at all looks remarkably like paradise. And emigrating to Mars is one hell of an escape plan.</p>
<p>Let’s dream of some “final frontier” by all means. But let’s focus our minds too on some quintessentially earthly priorities. Affordable healthcare. Decent homes for the poorest in society. A solid education for our kids. Reversing the decades-long precarity in the livelihoods of the frontline workers – the ones who saved our lives. Regenerating the devastating loss of the natural world. Replacing a frenetic consumerism with an economy of care and relationship and meaning.</p>
<p>Never have these things made so much sense to so many. Never has there been a better time to turn them into a reality. Not just for the handful of billionaires dreaming of unbridled wealth on the red planet, but for the eight billion mere mortals living out their far less brazen dreams on the blue one.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-the-world-a-history-of-how-a-silent-cosmos-led-humans-to-fear-the-worst-120193?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">The end of the world: a history of how a silent cosmos led humans to fear the worst</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-were-in-a-real-time-laboratory-of-a-more-sustainable-urban-future-135712?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Coronavirus: we’re in a real-time laboratory of a more sustainable urban future</a></em></p></li>
</ul>
<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164511/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Jackson receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>
Now is not the time for rocket men to abandon spaceship Earth.
Tim Jackson, Professor of Sustainable Development and Director of the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity (CUSP), University of Surrey
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/148947
2020-12-31T11:01:34Z
2020-12-31T11:01:34Z
How to create a government that considers future generations
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373329/original/file-20201207-23-11sibwx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-girl-holding-earth-her-hands-20797684">Kameel4u/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year – 2020 – has been shocking. If I try to find a silver lining, I think it might be this – that finally, the need for effective planning to address long-term problems has come under the spotlight around the world. </p>
<p>A pandemic planning committee <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/13/boris-johnson-scrapped-cabinet-pandemic-committee-six-months/">had been scrapped</a> six months before coronavirus hit the UK – despite the fact that the threat from a pandemic had been known for some time. Similarly, an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/trump-scrapped-pandemic-early-warning-program-system-before-coronavirus">early warning programme</a> to alert the government in the United States to pandemics was ended three months before COVID-19 began infecting people in China. Presumably lessons will be learned here.</p>
<p>The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has consumed political and media attention. But there are other long-term crises on the horizon that have had equally insufficient long-term planning. Many believe that democratic politics is too myopic: the horizons of politicians are restricted to the next election. I agree: short-termism in governance needs to be urgently addressed. </p>
<p>As we career towards escalating climate and biodiversity crises, interest has increased in what we can learn from examples of sustainable living, particularly from indigenous communities. For example, Iroquois philosophy, contains the “seventh generation principle”: the impact of any decision must be considered in the context of the next seven generations. </p>
<h2>Legislating sustainability</h2>
<p>In Wales, this ancient wisdom has been turned into legislation. It is the only nation in the world in which the need to protect future generations is embedded into law, and it has made sustainable development the organising principle of government. This means that the needs of the present should be met without compromising the needs of future generations. </p>
<p>The UN has described the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/anaw/2015/2/contents/enacted">Wellbeing of Future Generations (Wales) Act</a>, which was introduced in 2015, as <a href="https://www.futuregenerations.wales/making-it-happen/international/">world-leading</a>. The act, which I recently published <a href="https://northumbriajournals.co.uk/index.php/ijcle/article/view/1040">research</a> on, requires all 44 public bodies in Wales to work towards seven goals:</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366730/original/file-20201030-17-1uo2l8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366730/original/file-20201030-17-1uo2l8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366730/original/file-20201030-17-1uo2l8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366730/original/file-20201030-17-1uo2l8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366730/original/file-20201030-17-1uo2l8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366730/original/file-20201030-17-1uo2l8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366730/original/file-20201030-17-1uo2l8n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The seven Welsh wellbeing goals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Owen.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Frustrated sustainability champions, who want to see change, can use the act as the support and permission they need to challenge the system. The sustainable development principle requires public bodies to work collaboratively, and listen to what people say. This has led to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-40972621">revised local wellbeing plans</a> where, for example, poor public transport is seen as fuelling poverty. </p>
<p>The Welsh government and public bodies can be held to account if they fail to comply with the sustainable development principle. A post – the <a href="https://www.futuregenerations.wales/">future generations commissioner for Wales</a> – has been created. This person – currently Sophie Howe – has statutory powers and is independent of government. She has “name and shame” powers to challenge unsustainable practice. </p>
<p>In 2019, she worked with civil society and used her influence to prevent a planned motorway being built. The Welsh government decided to <a href="https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2019-06/m4-corridor-around-newport-decision-letter.pdf">reject</a> it on grounds of both cost and the environment. </p>
<h2>Other approaches</h2>
<p>Some other countries have also introduced a longer term perspective to policy making. For example, Hungary introduced a commissioner for future generations in 2008. However, the commissioner’s powers were <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322878298_Representation_of_Future_Generations_in_United_Kingdom_Policy-Making">later reduced</a>, probably because the commissioner intervened in over 200 cases a year.</p>
<p>Singapore’s approach has been to develop a government agency, the <a href="https://www.csf.gov.sg/who-we-are/">Centre for Strategic Issues</a>. It identifies whole-of-government priorities early, strengthens coordination across ministries and agencies to address these priorities, and translates them into policy plans. </p>
<p>The United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, have established a <a href="https://u.ae/en/about-the-uae/the-uae-government/ministry-of-possibilities">Ministry of Possibilities</a>. This is a virtual ministry which applies design-thinking and experimentation to develop new solutions to tackle critical issues. </p>
<p>And Finland has taken the approach of enhanced parliamentary scrutiny. Its <a href="https://www.eduskunta.fi/EN/valiokunnat/tulevaisuusvaliokunta/Pages/default.aspx">Committee for the Future</a>, was established in the 1990s. The Finnish <a href="https://vnk.fi/en/government-report-on-the-future">government</a> and parliament recognise complex issues at an early stage. They devise different alternative policies collaboratively while they are still under development. This is known as forward-looking scrutiny. Instead of parliamentary scrutiny of decisions which have already been taken, parliament scrutinises governmental plans for the future. </p>
<p>Other countries have taken participatory approaches. Scotland’s <a href="https://www.scotlandfutureforum.org/">Futures Forum</a> is a channel for public engagement with the Scottish Parliament by encouraging dialogue on long-term issues. The <a href="https://www.climateassembly.uk/">United Kingdom</a>, <a href="https://www.citizensassembly.ie/en/">Ireland</a> and <a href="https://www.conventioncitoyennepourleclimat.fr/">France</a> have used citizens’ assemblies. The assemblies in Ireland are considered to have been successful in developing a broad consensus in changing the law on abortion and same sex marriage. </p>
<p>Another approach has seen attempts to pivot the management of the economy away from a focus on GDP to instead consider a wider range of wellbeing objectives. New Zealand has adopted a <a href="https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2019-05/b19-wellbeing-budget.pdf">Wellbeing Budget</a> with five priority areas.</p>
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<h2>Enforcing sustainability law</h2>
<p>So has all this had any tangible effects? The Welsh Wellbeing of Future Generations Act has led to behavioural change in policy. <a href="https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2018-12/planning-policy-wales-edition-10.pdf">Planning</a>, for example, has been strongly influenced by sustainability issues. Under new laws influenced by the act, people can <a href="https://gov.wales/one-planet-development-practice-guidance">circumvent tight planning</a> rules so long as they build an eco-home in the countryside and live sustainably off the land on which it sits.</p>
<p>But it has found less favour in the courts. In 2019, a high court judge <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48272470">described</a> it as “vague, general and aspirational”. A <a href="https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-19/wellbeingoffuturegenerations.html">UK Future Generations Bill</a> currently before the UK parliament, which has been strongly influenced by the Welsh model, has stronger enforcement mechanisms. </p>
<p>But there may be advantages to the current weak enforcement mechanisms in the Welsh Act. Israel had a <a href="http://www.fdsd.org/ideas/knesset-commission-future-generations/">Commission for Future Generation</a> with an “effective veto” on legislation, but it was disestablished in 2016. As in Hungary, its wide-ranging powers may have been a factor in its demise. The situation in Wales may be transitional. Stronger powers may follow when the act is better established.</p>
<p>Current international crises have shown the need for long-term planning and the need to change political systems to better achieve this. Although there are different approaches to long-term planning across the world, the Welsh model is currently the most comprehensive and integrated. This is not to say that it cannot learn and be influenced by other approaches: it is actively seeking to do so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148947/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Owen is a member of its Access to Justice Committee of the Law Society of England and Wales. He is a trustee of Hafal, the mental health charity; Chair of the Swansea Neath Port Talbot Regional Advice Network Steering Group, and a member of the LawWorks Cymru Advisory Group. All opinions expressed in this article are his own. </span></em></p>
What the world can learn from Wales, the first place where sustainability is the organising principle of government, as well as what Wales is learning from the world about sustainability.
Richard Owen, Professor in Legal Studies, Swansea University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/137943
2020-08-05T09:51:42Z
2020-08-05T09:51:42Z
Is humanity doomed because we can’t plan for the long term? Three experts discuss
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350170/original/file-20200729-13-ixpr95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/zcES7JNIowE">sergio souza/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are still unclear, it is certain that they are a profound shock to the systems underpinning contemporary life. </p>
<p>The World Bank <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects">estimates</a> that global growth will contract by between 5% and 8% globally in 2020, and that COVID-19 will push between 71-100 million into extreme poverty. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be hit hardest. In developed countries health, leisure, commercial, educational and work practices are being reorganised – some say for good – in order to facilitate the forms of social distancing being advocated by experts and (sometimes reluctantly) promoted by governments.</p>
<p>Each of us has been affected by the changes wrought by COVID-19 in different ways. For some, the period of isolation has afforded time for contemplation. How do the ways in which our societies are currently structured enable crises such as this? How might we organise them otherwise? How might we use this opportunity to address other pressing global challenges, such climate change or racism? </p>
<p>For others, including those deemed vulnerable or “essential workers”, such reflections may have instead been directly precipitated from a more visceral sense of their exposure to danger. Had adequate preparations been made for events such as COVID-19? Were lessons being learnt not only to manage crises such as these when they happen again, but to prevent them from happening in the first place? Is the goal of getting back to normality adequate, or should we instead be seeking to refashion normality itself?</p>
<p>Such profound questions are commonly prompted by major events. When our sense of normality is shattered, when our habits get disrupted, we are made more aware that the world could be otherwise. But are humans capable of enacting such lofty plans? Are we capable of planning for the long-term in a meaningful way? What barriers might exist and, perhaps more pressingly, how might we overcome them in order to create a better world?</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em> </p>
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<p>As experts from three different academic disciplines whose work considers the capacity to engage in long-term planning for unanticipated events, such as COVID-19, in different ways, our work interrogates such questions. So is humanity in fact able to successfully plan for the longterm future?</p>
<p>Robin Dunbar, an evolutionary psychologist at the University of Oxford, argues that our obsession with short-term planning may be a part of human nature – but possibly a surmountable one. Chris Zebrowski, an emergency governance specialist from Loughborough University, contends that our lack of preparedness, far from being natural, is a consequence of contemporary political and economic systems. Per Olsson, sustainability scientist and expert in sustainability transformations from the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University, reflects on how crisis points can be used to change the future – drawing on examples from the past in order to learn how to be more resilient going into the future.</p>
<h2>We are built this way</h2>
<p><em>Robin Dunbar</em></p>
<p>COVID-19 has highlighted three key aspects of human behaviour that seem unrelated but which, in fact, arise from the same underlying psychology. One was the bizarre surge in panic buying and stockpiling of everything from food to toilet rolls. A second was the abject failure of most states to be prepared when experts had been warning governments for years that a pandemic would happen sooner or later. The third has been the exposure of the fragility of globalised supply chains. All three of these are underpinned by the same phenomenon: a strong tendency to prioritise the short term at the expense of the future.</p>
<p>Most animals, including humans, are notoriously bad at taking the long term consequences of their actions into account. Economists know this as the “<a href="https://sk.sagepub.com/reference/socialpsychology/n428.xml">public good dilemma</a>”. In conservation biology, it is known as the “<a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ff4c/f60d1b9e75f4b63245f07736c2366ed9db63.pdf#page=2">poacher’s dilemma</a>” and also also, more colloquially, as “the tragedy of the commons”.</p>
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<p>If you are a logger, should you cut down the last tree in the forest, or leave it standing? Everyone knows that if it is left standing, the forest will eventually regrow and the whole village will survive. But the dilemma for the logger is not next year, but whether he and his family will survive until tomorrow. For the logger, the economically rational thing to do is, in fact, to cut the tree down. </p>
<p>This is because the future is unpredictable, but whether or not you make it to tomorrow is absolutely certain. If you die of starvation today, you have no options when it comes to the future; but if you can make through to tomorrow, there is a chance that things might have improved. Economically, it’s a no-brainer. This is, in part, why we have overfishing, deforestation and climate change.</p>
<p>The process underpinning this is known to psychologists as discounting the future. Both animals and humans <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_preference">typically prefer</a> a small reward now to a larger reward later, unless the future reward is very large. The ability to resist this temptation is dependent on the frontal pole (the bit of the brain right just above your eyes), one of whose functions is to allow us to inhibit the temptation to act without thinking of the consequences. It is this small brain region that allows (most of) us to politely leave the last slice of cake on the plate rather than wolf it down. In primates, the bigger this brain region is, the better they are at these kinds of decisions.</p>
<p>Our social life, and the fact that we (and other primates) can manage to live in large, stable, bonded communities depends entirely on this capacity. Primate social groups are implicit social contracts. For these groups to survive in the face of the ecological costs that group living necessarily incur, people must be able to forego some of their selfish desires in the interests of everyone else getting their fair share. If that doesn’t happen, the group will very quickly break up and disperse.</p>
<p>In humans, failure to inhibit greedy behaviour quickly leads to excessive inequality of resources or power. This is probably the single most common cause of civil unrest and revolution, from the French Revolution to <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/hong-kong-protests-73625">Hong Kong</a> today.</p>
<p>The same logic underpins economic globalisation. By switching production elsewhere where production costs are lower, homegrown industries can reduce their costs. The problem is that this occurs at a cost to the community, due to increased social security expenditure to pay for the now redundant employees of home industries until such time as they can find alternative employment. This is a hidden cost: the producer doesn’t notice (they can sell more cheaply than they could otherwise have done) and the shopper doesn’t notice (they can buy cheaper).</p>
<p>There is a simple issue of scale that feeds into this. Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/%28SICI%291520-6505%281998%296%3A5%3C178%3A%3AAID-EVAN5%3E3.0.CO%3B2-8">natural social world</a> is very small scale, barely village size. Once community size gets large, our interests switch from the wider community to a focus on self-interest. Society staggers on, but it becomes an unstable, increasingly fractious body liable at continual risk of fragmenting, as all historical empires have found.</p>
<p>Businesses provide a smaller-scale example of these effects. The average lifetime of companies in the FTSE100 index has <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-winning-organizations-last-100-years">declined dramatically</a> in the last half-century: three-quarters have disappeared in just 30 years. The companies that have survived turn out to be those that have a long term vision, are not interested in get-rich-quick strategies to maximise returns to investors and have a vision of social benefit. Those that have gone extinct have largely been those that pursued short term strategies or those that, because of their size, lacked the structural flexibility to adapt (think holiday operator <a href="https://theconversation.com/thomas-cook-tourism-experts-explain-the-travel-companys-collapse-124054">Thomas Cook</a>).</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Our natural social world is barely village-size.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rob Curran/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
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<p>Much of the problem, in the end, comes down to scale. Once a community exceeds a certain size, most of its members become strangers: we lose our sense of commitment both to others as individuals and to the communal project that society represents.</p>
<p>COVID-19 may be the reminder many societies need to rethink their political and economic structures into a more localised form which is closer to their constituents. Of course, these will surely need bringing together in federal superstructures, but the key here is a level of autonomous community-level government where the citizen feels they have a personal stake in the way things work. </p>
<h2>The power of politics</h2>
<p><em>Chris Zebrowski</em></p>
<p>Where size and scale is concerned, it doesn’t get much bigger than the Rideau canal. Stretching over <a href="http://www.rideau-info.com/canal/map-waterway.html">202 kilometres in length</a>, the Rideau canal in Canada is regarded as one of the great engineering feats of the 19th century. Opened in 1832, the canal system was designed to act as an alternative supply route to the vital stretch of the St Lawrence river connecting Montreal and the naval base in Kingston.</p>
<p>The impetus for this project was the threat of resumed hostilities with the Americans following a war fought between the United States, the United Kingdom and their allies <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_1812">from 1812-1815</a>. While the canal would never need to be used for its intended purpose (despite its considerable cost), it is just one example of human ingenuity being paired with significant public investment in the face of an uncertain future threat.</p>
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<img alt="© Archives of Ontario" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A section of the Rideau Canal, Thomas Burrowes, 1845.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rideau_Canal#/media/File:Lower_Bytown,_from_the_Barrack_Hill,_near_the_head_of_the_Eighth_Lock_and_Sappers%E2%80%99_Bridge,_1845.jpg">© Archives of Ontario</a></span>
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<p>“Discounting the future” may well be a common habit. But I don’t think that this is an inevitable consequence of how our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/%28SICI%291520-6505%281998%296%3A5%3C178%3A%3AAID-EVAN5%3E3.0.CO%3B2-8">brains are wired</a> or an enduring legacy of our primate ancestry. Our proclivity to short-termism has been socialised. It is a result of the ways we are socially and politically organised today.</p>
<p>Businesses prioritise short-term profits over longer term outcomes because it appeals to shareholders and lenders. Politicians dismiss long-term projects in favour of quick-fix solutions promising instant results which can feature in campaign literature that is distributed every four years. </p>
<p>At the same time, we are surrounded by examples of highly sophisticated, and often well-financed, tools for risk management. The major public works projects, vital social security systems, sizeable military assemblages, complex financial instruments, and elaborate insurance policies which support our contemporary way of life attest to the human capacity to plan and prepare for the future when we feel compelled to do so.</p>
<p>In recent months, the vital importance of emergency preparedness and response systems in managing the COVID-19 crisis has come into full public view. These are highly complex systems which employ horizon scanning, risk registers, preparedness exercises and a variety of other specialist methods to identify and plan for future emergencies before they happen. Such measures ensure that we are prepared for future events, even when we are not entirely sure when (or if) they will materialise. </p>
<p>While we could not predict the scale of the outbreak of COVID-19, previous coronavirus outbreaks in Asia meant we knew it was <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/11/why-werent-we-ready-for-the-coronavirus">a possibility</a>. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been warning about the risks of an <a href="https://www.who.int/influenza/preparedness/en/">international influenza pandemic</a> for many years now. In the UK, the 2016 national preparedness project Exercise Cygnus made abundantly clear that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/revealed-the-secret-report-that-gave-ministers-warning-of-care-home-coronavirus-crisis?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Add_to_Pocket">the country lacked the capacity</a> to adequately respond to a large-scale public health emergency. The danger was clearly identified. What was required to prepare for such a calamity was known. What was lacking was the political will to provide adequate investment in these vital systems.</p>
<p>In many western nations the ascendance of neoliberalism (and accompanying logic of austerity) has contributed to the defunding of many critical services, including emergency preparedness, upon which our safety and security depend. This is in sharp contrast to countries including China, New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam where a commitment to both preparedness and response has ensured a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0967010618817422">rapid suppression</a> of the disease and the minimisation of its disruptive potential to lives and the economy.</p>
<p>While such a diagnosis may first appear to be bleak, there is good reason to find within it some hope. If the causes of short-termism are a product of the ways we are organised, then there is an opportunity for us reorganise ourselves to address them. </p>
<p>Recent studies suggest that the public not only recognises the risk of climate change, but are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/19/britons-want-faster-action-climate-poll">demanding urgent action</a> be taken to stave off this existential crisis. We cannot allow the death and destruction of COVID-19 to have been in vain. In the wake of this tragedy, we must be prepared to radically rethink how we organise ourselves our societies and be prepared to take ambitious actions to ensure the security and sustainability of our species.</p>
<p>Our capacity to deal not only with future pandemics, but larger-scale (<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-or-the-pandemic-of-mistreated-biodiversity-136447">and perhaps not unrelated</a>) threats including climate change will require us to exercise the human capacity for foresight and prudence in the face of future threats. It is not beyond us to do so.</p>
<h2>How to change the world</h2>
<p><em>Per Olsson</em></p>
<p>As much as short-termism and structural issues have come to play out in analyses of the pandemic, those focused on the longer term keep arguing that this is the time for change.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a slew of people arguing that this is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-world-be-like-after-coronavirus-four-possible-futures-134085">once-in-a-generation moment</a> for transformation. Government responses, these writers say, must drive <a href="https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/twi/Report2018.html">far-reaching</a> economic and social change relating to energy and food systems, otherwise we will be vulnerable to more crises in the future. Some go further and claim a <a href="https://goodanthropocenes.net">different world is possible</a>, a more equitable and sustainable society less obsessed with growth and consumption. But transforming multiple systems simultaneously is not an easy task, and it is worth understanding better what we already know about transformations and crisis.</p>
<p>History shows us that crisis does indeed create a unique chance for change. </p>
<p>A classic example is how the oil crisis in 1973 enabled the transition from a car-based society to a cycling nation in the Netherlands. Prior to the energy crisis there was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/05/amsterdam-bicycle-capital-world-transport-cycling-kindermoord">growing opposition to cars</a>, and a social movement emerged in response to the increasingly congested cities and the number of traffic related deaths, especially children.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cycling is a major mode of transport in the Netherlands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/VEXIwDcY1gw">Jace & Afsoon/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another example is the Black Death, the plague that swept Asia, Africa, and Europe in the 14th century. This led to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-can-the-black-death-tell-us-about-the-global-economic-consequences-of-a-pandemic-132793">abolition of feudalism</a> and the strengthening of peasants rights in Western Europe. </p>
<p>But while positive (large-scale) societal change can come out of crises, the consequences are not always better, more sustainable, or more just, and sometimes the changes that emerge are different from one context to another. </p>
<p>For example, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami affected two of Asia’s longest-running insurgencies in Sri Lanka and the Aceh province in Indonesia <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tsunami-anniversary-conflict/tale-of-war-and-peace-in-the-2004-tsunami-idUSTRE5BH01O20091218">very differently</a>. In the former, the armed conflict between the Sri Lankan government and the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam deepened and intensified by the natural disaster. In Aceh meanwhile, it resulted in a historic peace agreement between the Indonesian government and the separatists. </p>
<p>Some of these differences can be explained by the long histories of the conflicts. But the readiness of different groups to further their agenda, the anatomy of the crisis itself, and the actions and strategies following the initial tsunami event also have important parts to play.</p>
<p>It comes as no surprise, then, that the opportunities for change can be seized by self-interested movements and therefore can accelerate non-democratic tendencies. Power can be further consolidated among groups not interested in improving equity and sustainability. We see this <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-31/as-coronavirus-tide-rises-authoritarians-around-the-world-seize-the-moment">right now</a> in places like the Philippines and Hungary.</p>
<p>With many clamouring for change, what gets left out of the discussion is that the scale, speed, and quality of transformations matter. And more importantly, the specific capabilities that are needed to navigate such significant change successfully.</p>
<p>There is often a confusion about what kinds of actions actually make a difference and what should be done now, and by whom. The risk is that opportunities created by the crisis are missed and that efforts – with the best of intentions and all the promises of being innovative – just lead back to the pre-crisis status quo, or to a slightly improved one, or even to a radically worse one. </p>
<p>For example, the financial crisis of 2008 was seized on by some as a moment to transform the finance sector, but the strongest forces pushed the system back to something resembling the pre-crash status quo.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-the-2008-financial-crisis-for-our-coronavirus-recovery-today-recovery-podcast-series-part-six-142203">Lessons from the 2008 financial crisis for our coronavirus recovery today – Recovery podcast series part six</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Systems that create inequality, insecurity, and unsustainable practices are not easily transformed. Transformation, as the word suggests, requires fundamental changes in multiple dimensions such as power, resource flows, roles, and routines. And these shifts must take place at different levels in society, from practices and behaviours, to rules and regulations, to values and worldviews. This involves changing the relationships among humans but also profoundly change the relationships between humans and nature.</p>
<p>We see efforts now during COVID-19 to – at least in principle – commit to these kinds of changes, with ideas once viewed as radical now being deployed by a range of different groups. In Europe, the idea of a green recovery is growing. The city of Amsterdam is considering implementing <a href="https://www.c40knowledgehub.org/s/article/Thriving-Cities-and-the-Amsterdam-City-Doughnut?language=en_US">doughnut economics</a> – an economic system that is intended to deliver ecological and human wellbeing; and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52707551">universal basic income</a> is being rolled out in Spain. All existed before the COVID-19 crisis and have been piloted in some cases, but the pandemic has put rocket boosters under the ideas.</p>
<p>So for those that seek to use this opportunity to create change that will ensure the long-term health, equity, and sustainability of our societies, there are some important considerations. It is critical to dissect the anatomy of the crisis and adjust actions accordingly. Such assessment should include questions about what type of multiple, interacting crises are occurring, what parts of the “status quo” are truly collapsing and what parts remain firmly in place, and who is affected by all of these changes. Another key thing to do is to identify piloted experiments that have reached a certain level of “readiness”.</p>
<p>It is also important to deal with inequalities and <a href="https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/the-evolution-of-social-innovation-9781786431141.html">include marginalised voices</a> to avoid transformation processes becoming dominated and co-opted by a specific set of values and interests. This also means respecting and working with the competing values that will inevitably come into conflict.</p>
<p>How we organise our efforts will define our systems for decades to come. Crises can be opportunities – but only if they are navigated wisely.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-world-needs-pharmaceuticals-from-china-and-india-to-beat-coronavirus-138388?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">The world needs pharmaceuticals from China and India to beat coronavirus
</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-future-do-airlines-have-three-experts-discuss-135365?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">What future do airlines have? Three experts discuss</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/searching-for-misha-the-life-and-tragedies-of-the-worlds-most-famous-polar-bear-137344?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Searching for Misha: the life and tragedies of the world’s most famous polar bear</a></em></p></li>
</ul>
<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137943/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Dunbar has received funding from European Research Council Advanced Research Grant.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Zebrowski receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Per Olsson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
An evolutionary psychologist, politics expert and sustainability scientist discuss the potential for humanity to plan for the long term future.
Robin Dunbar, Professor of Evolutionary Psychology, Department of Experimental Psycology, University of Oxford
Chris Zebrowski, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Loughborough University
Per Olsson, Researcher, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/129374
2020-07-10T11:14:35Z
2020-07-10T11:14:35Z
These communities are experimenting with greener and fairer ways of living
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343808/original/file-20200624-132978-1v5h57i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Springhill Cohousing Community, Stroud.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/uniteddiversity/6368784459/in/photolist-aGMf1M-aGMFJB-aGMrnr-aGNdHv-aGMsSV-aGN4b6-aGNeoK-aGMbBz-aGNgnp-aGNf6k-aGMWJV-aGN9qk-aGN7T6-RLrbAQ-aGNbXR-aGNb4M-aGNcMB-aGN8PT-HtpZye-aGMogM-RLpsMm-aGMQbT-RLtqq9-aGMSkM-RDaqnM-RfvVDQ-aGMUYt-RLthvw-RPYqrV-RDbLmc-Qxx4B1-RfwEQE-QxuQWf-RPYnpT-QxxP6L-Rftid7-RDbvyr-RftPB3-RfuBb9-RQ16KH-QAetDB-RftEbj-RfsXBJ-RDaYov-RftBT3-RAyzZA-QAdN68-RAviV7-QAaY8Z-RLridN">United Diversity/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Frankie lives in a six-bedroom house on the outskirts of Leeds. She is her own landlord, but doesn’t own the house. Instead she is part of a <a href="https://cornerstonehousing.org.uk/blog/">co-operative housing group</a>: together, they have been able to buy the house and then rent it at an affordable price back to themselves as tenants.</p>
<p>Just a few miles away, <a href="http://chapeltowncohousing.org.uk/the-project/design/">another group</a> has secured funding to design and build an eco-community of up to 30 households, including what is known as a common house: a shared house with a kitchen, laundry, workshops, a meeting space, guest rooms and gardens.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338861/original/file-20200601-95028-1s06xdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338861/original/file-20200601-95028-1s06xdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338861/original/file-20200601-95028-1s06xdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338861/original/file-20200601-95028-1s06xdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338861/original/file-20200601-95028-1s06xdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338861/original/file-20200601-95028-1s06xdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338861/original/file-20200601-95028-1s06xdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338861/original/file-20200601-95028-1s06xdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The plans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Chapeltown Cohousing</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Much further away in north-east Germany is a 37-acre site where a group of people <a href="https://www.zegg.de/en/community.html">live and work together</a> sharing food, childcare and resources. They have created a community where relationships and the environment are given primacy.</p>
<p>All three of these are examples of intentional communities: groups of people who have chosen to live together in a way that reflects their shared values. These communities come in a variety of shapes and forms, from squats and housing co-operatives to communes and co-housing communities.</p>
<p>Intentional communities are by no means a new idea, but they have often been cited as the experimental spaces or test beds for the future. They are sometimes considered as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k75JHLEE33M">utopian experiments</a> where groups and people strive to create a better life.</p>
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<p>Many people are looking for antidotes to ever-increasing consumption and feelings of social isolation. There is no single solution, and we will need to look at all aspects of our lives, from the way we consume to day-to-day practices. But for some, the solution is to be found in communal living and intentional communities. It may be that some of the ideas being tested in these communities can create the blueprints for the towns and cities of tomorrow.</p>
<h2>Alternative lifestyles</h2>
<p>There is some evidence that intentional communities are formed as <a href="https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/bitstream/handle/document/54642/ssoar-hsr-2017-3-wallmeier-Exit_as_Critique_Communes_and.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y&lnkname=ssoar-hsr-2017-3-wallmeier-Exit_as_Critique_Communes_and.pdf">responses to the concerns of society</a> at any given time.</p>
<p>Back in the 1970s, many new communities were formed as a backlash to mass urbanisation and industrialisation. Such groups bought up rural property, often with land, and attempted a “back to the land” lifestyle informed by ideas of self-sufficiency. </p>
<p>Many of these communities failed, but some still function successfully today, often in their original form. For example, <a href="https://www.canonfromecourt.org.uk/">Canon Frome Court</a> collectively manages a 40-acre organic farm in Herefordshire. Together, the community grows much of its own food and keeps cows, sheep and chickens.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338859/original/file-20200601-95036-cegmf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338859/original/file-20200601-95036-cegmf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338859/original/file-20200601-95036-cegmf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338859/original/file-20200601-95036-cegmf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338859/original/file-20200601-95036-cegmf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338859/original/file-20200601-95036-cegmf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338859/original/file-20200601-95036-cegmf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On the farm at Canon Frome Court, May 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Canon Frome Court</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>It is difficult to estimate the number of intentional communities worldwide, but they are certainly in <a href="https://www.ic.org/foundation-for-intentional-community/">the thousands</a>. In the UK alone there are around 300 listed (and many more that are not), with new communities springing up every year.</p>
<p>If we were to use intentional communities as a gauge of social discontent, then the multiple pressures of housing, lack of community, an ageing society and, of course, climate change would be central to this feeling. Look a little deeper, and these problems are actually part a much wider group of social concerns around consumption, global inequality and planetary limits.</p>
<p>In mainstream society, the solutions to these interlocking ideas are presented as top-down measures made via policy, legislation and global agreements, but also as personal choices made by individuals and groups: driving and flying less, consuming more ethically, eating a more plant-based diet, changing the way we work and live.</p>
<p>Those within intentional communities would say that they have been ahead of the curve on this for many years, with ideas such as vegetarianism and self-sufficiency often central to their way of life. They often occupy the necessary middle ground between government policy and individual action. The documentary maker Helen Iles named her series of films on intentional communities “<a href="http://livinginthefuture.org/ecovillage-pioneers.php">Living in the future</a>”.</p>
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<h2>Living in the future</h2>
<p>So what can we tell about possible directions of wider society from the intentional communities of today?</p>
<p>Some rural communities have embraced low-impact development. For example, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cO1ehQNZI2Q&feature=emb_title">Rhiw Las</a>, a rural eco-community in west Wales, has created a sustainable settlement based on strict <a href="http://www.oneplanetcouncil.org.uk/">ecological guidelines</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, urban-based communities, such as <a href="https://youtu.be/MBScZMEgFq8">Bunker Housing Co-operative</a> in Brighton, look to create high-quality affordable housing for local people. Such co-operatives are based on the principle of collective control and management of property. </p>
<p>They enable groups of people who might not have access to secure housing to form a legal entity, which enables them to collectively buy and own property. They also have the capacity to incorporate or support co-operative businesses, such as food or printing co-ops.</p>
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<p>Urban housing co-ops are particularly relevant in areas where house prices and rents can be prohibitively high and exclude certain groups, such as precarious workers or younger people. Housing co-ops can offer secure housing options that also empower people and enable them to live within their means. </p>
<p>The group <a href="https://www.radicalroutes.org.uk/">Radical Routes</a> (a network of radical co-ops) also suggests that when people are freed from excessive rent payments, they are then freer to engage with their communities and participate in social change.</p>
<p>Today’s urban communities capitalise on urban cycle networks and public transport. They are also more likely to engage with green transport options such as electric car pooling and on-site work spaces to reduce travel entirely. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.brightgreenfutures.co.uk/projects/the-bower/">Fishponds Co-Build</a>, a prospective community on the edge of Bristol, has created its own sustainability action plan. Together, they have outlined ways they intend to reduce their carbon footprint through communal living. </p>
<p>The ideas fermented in past communities, such as straw-bale building and shared ownership, are being developed in exciting and creative ways to transform rural and urban living. This can incorporate new building techniques, such as PassiveHaus design in <a href="https://www.lancastercohousing.org.uk/Project/Standards">Lancaster Co-Housing</a>, and the development of alternative spaces, such as car-free neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>Intentional communities may not be the solution to all our problems, but they certainly represent an area of experimentation in the ways we share space, shape community and provide a peek at potential ways forward in uncertain times.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129374/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsten Stevens-Wood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Communal living: enabling people to strive for a better, more sustainable lifestyle.
Kirsten Stevens-Wood, Lecturer, Cardiff Metropolitan University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/139240
2020-05-28T11:54:13Z
2020-05-28T11:54:13Z
Coronavirus: how the pandemic has changed our perception of time
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338021/original/file-20200527-20250-14p4j7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Feel like time has come to a standstill?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tired-woman-home-office-looking-her-664114018">Leszek Glasner/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has completely changed our lives. Take something as fundamental as our experiences of space: our mobility has become severely restricted – reduced to jogs or walks a few kilometres around our homes. Perhaps less obviously, the lockdown has also affected our experiences of time. </p>
<p>As an anthropologist of time, I investigate how human beings relate to time, particularly during crises. The current crisis, like many others, could be seen to deprive us of our “<a href="https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/cja/34/1/ca340104.xml">temporal agency</a>” – the ability to structure, manage and manipulate our experience of time. For example, many of us will have already lost track of time, wondering which day of the week it is. It feels a bit as if time has come to a standstill.</p>
<p>The most important feature of our experiences of time during crisis is what anthropologist <a href="https://anthropology.jhu.edu/directory/jane-guyer/">Jane Guyer</a> termed “<a href="https://anthrosource.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1525/ae.2007.34.3.409">enforced presentism</a>”: a feeling of being stuck in the present, combined with the inability to plan ahead. We currently don’t know when we can see our loved ones again, or when we can go on holiday. More severely, many of us don’t know when we’ll go back to work – or indeed if we have a job to go back to. In the midst of this crisis, it is hard to imagine a future that looks different than the present. </p>
<h2>Tricking time</h2>
<p>So how do we cope? I argue that this crisis has prompted us to be more creative with our relations to time. Most of us are even “<a href="https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/cja/34/1/cja.34.issue-1.xml">tricking time</a>” to some extent, as <a href="https://cambridge.academia.edu/RoxanaMorosanu">Roxana Moroşanu</a> and I <a href="https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/cja/34/1/cja.34.issue-1.xml">termed it in a recent paper</a>. We speed up and slow down, bend and restructure time in many different ways. </p>
<p>“Corona time” in fact consists of many different times, such as the “time of lockdown”, “quarantine time” or “home office time”. We have learnt to inhabit these new presents. These lessons are deeply personal and differ in each household. Still, they speak of an experience shared worldwide. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338220/original/file-20200528-51456-1rv51rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338220/original/file-20200528-51456-1rv51rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338220/original/file-20200528-51456-1rv51rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338220/original/file-20200528-51456-1rv51rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338220/original/file-20200528-51456-1rv51rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338220/original/file-20200528-51456-1rv51rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338220/original/file-20200528-51456-1rv51rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Homeschooling requires schedules.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/asian-girl-student-video-conference-elearning-1697599129">Travelerpix/shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over the last few months, you will have deployed many temporal strategies yourself. This might include the construction of new rhythms and temporal structures. Daily exercises, weekly family Zoom meetings, a 6pm glass of wine or weekend cake baking all mark the passage of time. And home schooling has demanded new schedules – not to mention endless persuasion. </p>
<h2>The clock of capitalism</h2>
<p>For many, this feeling of stuckness is not new. Those who cannot keep up with the ever accelerating global flows of money, ideas, commodities and people often feel left behind. Critics of capitalism have therefore argued we need a <a href="https://www.slowmovement.com/">slowing down of time</a>.</p>
<p>In my work on postindustrial cities, I have studied <a href="https://www.berghahnbooks.com/title/RingelBack">our relationship with the future</a> in times of economic crises. These crises are part and parcel of capitalism, as Marx told us more than 150 years ago. After the second world war, however, welfare states largely kept economic crises at bay. </p>
<p>But the 1980s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/aug/18/neoliberalism-the-idea-that-changed-the-world">neoliberal reforms of capitalism</a> resulted in a dismantling of the welfare state. National governments stopped fathoming five-year plans. Just-in-time production and new technological developments, such as the internet, led to an unprecedented acceleration of time. </p>
<p>Temporally, neoliberalism has put humanity into crisis mode for several decades already. Without job security and in ever changing markets, many of us struggle to plan ahead – getting stuck in the present. The way to beat this stuckness is to “muddle through”, or as the British more heroically say, “keep calm and carry on”. </p>
<p>Many postindustrial cities, <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/513948/gs-16-2-divergent-cities-post-industrial-britain.pdf">such as those in Wales and north-east England</a>, have lost a take on their collective prospects. After years of industrial boom and high employment rates, many inhabitants now feel their towns have “no future”. The dismantling of local industries, such as mining, has led to high unemployment and unforeseen levels of migration out of the areas. The young and well-educated move away in search for jobs, while those who stay behind witness the slow decline of their hometown.</p>
<p>To overcome a lack of foresight and enforced presentism, their urban governments have had to <a href="https://cmis.hullcc.gov.uk/cmis/Portals/0/Corporate%20Plan/Hull%20City%20Couincil%20Corporate%20Plan%202018-2022.pdf?ver=2019-02-12-110026-997">reclaim the future</a> planning rather than just responding to events. Despite ongoing decline, they have had to ask themselves: how do we want our city to look, say, in five years time? </p>
<h2>Reclaiming the future</h2>
<p>This applies to our current situation, too. Now is the time to think ahead about how life should look like in the post-COVID-19 future – we need to trick time further than for our personal households. Although a vaccine or proper treatment for COVID-19 is still not in sight, we have to try to shake the feeling of being trapped in the present. We now need to engage with the emerging politics of time, which will determine our near future. </p>
<p>For example, we will soon see different attempts at declaring an end to the pandemic, based on, for example, low numbers of new infections, and we should carefully assess them. We will also have to ask more fundamental questions about when this crisis is over: how can we solve the ongoing climate crisis? How can we prevent social inequalities in an unforeseen economic recession? How can we prevent another pandemic? The politics of time will also be crucial retrospectively: Have governments acted quickly enough? </p>
<p>Because the corona crisis has allowed us to experience a very different time, it will be interesting to see whether parts of this new normality, such as home offices and reduced mobility, <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/simone-abram-183787">will remain</a>. But even if it is just an involuntary pause from capitalist times, we should reconsider neoliberalism’s temporal regimes of growth, decline and acceleration that have shaped life on Earth.</p>
<p>Our experiences of corona time has given us a training in temporal thought and flexibility. Humanity will weather this crisis, but there are others ahead. Perhaps then, it will be comforting to know that we can, and must, trick time and plan for the future – even when we feel stuck in the present.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139240/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felix Ringel received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council of the United Kingdom and from the European Commission. </span></em></p>
Feel like time has come to a standstill? The coronavirus crisis has prompted us to be more creative with our relations to time.
Felix Ringel, Assistant Professor of Anthropology, Durham University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/137967
2020-05-20T12:15:15Z
2020-05-20T12:15:15Z
To safely explore the solar system and beyond, spaceships need to go faster – nuclear-powered rockets may be the answer
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335879/original/file-20200518-83367-yrk119.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C3952%2C3119&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Over the last 50 years, a lot has changed in rocketry. The fuel that powers spaceflight might finally be changing too. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/rocket-orbiting-the-earth-royalty-free-illustration/533327609?adppopup=true">CSA-Printstock/DIgital Vision Vectors via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With dreams of Mars on the minds <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/lunar-gateway">of both NASA</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/2/18053424/elon-musk-tesla-spacex-boring-company-self-driving-cars-saudi-twitter-kara-swisher-decode-podcast">Elon Musk</a>, long-distance crewed missions through space are coming. But you might be surprised to learn that modern rockets don’t go all that much faster than the rockets of the past.</p>
<p>There are a lot of reasons that a faster spaceship is a better one, and nuclear-powered rockets are a way to do this. They offer many benefits over traditional fuel-burning rockets or modern solar-powered electric rockets, but there have been only <a href="https://www.energy.gov/ne/nuclear-reactor-technologies/space-power-systems/next-generation-radioisotope-generators">eight U.S. space launches</a> carrying nuclear reactors in the last 40 years.</p>
<p>However, in 2019 the <a href="https://www.space.com/trump-nuclear-spacecraft-launch-guidelines.html">laws regulating nuclear space flights changed</a> and work has already begun on this next generation of rockets. </p>
<h2>Why the need for speed?</h2>
<p>The first step of a space journey involves the use of launch rockets to get a ship into orbit. These are the large fuel-burning engines people imagine when they think of rocket launches and are not likely to go away in the foreseeable future due to the constraints of gravity.</p>
<p>It is once a ship reaches space that things get interesting. To escape Earth’s gravity and reach deep space destinations, ships need additional acceleration. This is where nuclear systems come into play. If astronauts want to explore anything farther than the Moon and perhaps Mars, they are going to need to be going very very fast. Space is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iy7NzjCmUf0&t=178s">massive</a>, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR3Igc3Rhfg">everything is far away</a>.</p>
<p>There are two reasons faster rockets are better for long-distance space travel: safety and time.</p>
<p>Astronauts on a trip to Mars would be <a href="https://www.space.com/41887-mars-radiation-too-much-for-astronauts.html">exposed to very high levels of radiation</a> which can cause serious <a href="https://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/sciences/osm/radiation.asp">long-term health problems such as cancer and sterility</a>. Radiation shielding can help, but it is extremely heavy, and the longer the mission, the more shielding is needed. A better way to reduce radiation exposure is to simply get where you are going quicker.</p>
<p>But human safety isn’t the only benefit. As space agencies probe farther out into space, it is important to get data from unmanned missions as soon as possible. It took <a href="https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/science/neptune/">Voyager-2 12 years just to reach Neptune</a>, where it snapped some incredible photos as it flew by. If Voyager-2 had a faster propulsion system, astronomers could have had those photos and the information they contained years earlier. </p>
<p>Speed is good. But why are nuclear systems faster?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335875/original/file-20200518-83367-1x6b8r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335875/original/file-20200518-83367-1x6b8r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335875/original/file-20200518-83367-1x6b8r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335875/original/file-20200518-83367-1x6b8r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335875/original/file-20200518-83367-1x6b8r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335875/original/file-20200518-83367-1x6b8r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335875/original/file-20200518-83367-1x6b8r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335875/original/file-20200518-83367-1x6b8r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Saturn V rocket was 363 feet tall and mostly just a gas tank.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://heroicrelics.org/info/saturn-v/saturn-v-general.html">Mike Jetzer/heroicrelics.org</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Systems of today</h2>
<p>Once a ship has escaped Earth’s gravity, there are three important aspects to consider when comparing any propulsion system:</p>
<ul>
<li>Thrust – how fast a system can accelerate a ship</li>
<li>Mass efficiency – how much thrust a system can produce for a given amount of fuel</li>
<li>Energy density – how much energy a given amount of fuel can produce</li>
</ul>
<p>Today, the most common propulsion systems in use are chemical propulsion – that is, regular fuel-burning rockets – and solar-powered electric propulsion systems.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/airplane/rocket.html">Chemical propulsion systems</a> provide a lot of thrust, but chemical rockets aren’t particularly efficient, and rocket fuel isn’t that energy-dense. The Saturn V rocket that took astronauts to the Moon produced <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_V#cite_note-30">35 million Newtons of force</a> at liftoff and <a href="https://www.space.com/18422-apollo-saturn-v-moon-rocket-nasa-infographic.html">carried 950,000 gallons of fuel</a>. While most of the fuel was used in getting the rocket into orbit, the limitations are apparent: It takes a lot of heavy fuel to get anywhere.</p>
<p>Electric propulsion systems generate thrust using electricity produced from solar panels. The most common way to do this is to use an electrical field to accelerate ions, such as in the <a href="https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/hall/overview/overview.htm">Hall thruster</a>. These devices are <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/501329main_TA02-ID_rev3-NRC-wTASR.pdf">commonly used to power satellites</a> and can have more than five times higher mass efficiency than chemical systems. But they produce much less thrust – <a href="https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/hall/overview/overview.htm">about three Newtons</a>, or only enough to accelerate a car from 0-60 mph in about two and a half hours. The energy source – the Sun – is essentially infinite but becomes less useful the farther away from the Sun the ship gets.</p>
<p>One of the reasons nuclear-powered rockets are promising is because they offer incredible energy density. The uranium fuel used in nuclear reactors has an energy density that is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density">4 million times higher</a> than hydrazine, a typical chemical rocket propellant. It is much easier to get a small amount of uranium to space than hundreds of thousands of gallons of fuel.</p>
<p>So what about thrust and mass efficiency?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335877/original/file-20200518-83348-1mwpqh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335877/original/file-20200518-83348-1mwpqh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335877/original/file-20200518-83348-1mwpqh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335877/original/file-20200518-83348-1mwpqh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335877/original/file-20200518-83348-1mwpqh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335877/original/file-20200518-83348-1mwpqh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335877/original/file-20200518-83348-1mwpqh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335877/original/file-20200518-83348-1mwpqh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first nuclear thermal rocket was built in 1967 and is seen in the background. In the foreground is the protective casing that would hold the reactor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_thermal_rocket#/media/File:NERVA_XE_nuclear_rocket_engine_being_transported_to_test_stand_-_GPN-2002-000143.jpg">NASA/Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Two options for nuclear</h2>
<p>Engineers have designed two main types of nuclear systems for space travel. </p>
<p>The first is called <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/game_changing_development/Nuclear_Thermal_Propulsion_Deep_Space_Exploration">nuclear thermal propulsion</a>. These systems are very powerful and moderately efficient. They use a small nuclear fission reactor – similar to those found in nuclear submarines – to heat a gas, such as hydrogen, and that gas is then accelerated through a rocket nozzle to provide thrust. Engineers from NASA estimate that a mission to Mars powered by nuclear thermal propulsion would be <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a18345717/nasa-ntp-nuclear-engines-mars/">20%-25% shorter than a trip on a chemical-powered rocket</a>. </p>
<p>Nuclear thermal propulsion systems are more than <a href="https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/6-things-you-should-know-about-nuclear-thermal-propulsion">twice as efficient as chemical propulsion systems</a> – meaning they generate twice as much thrust using the same amount of propellant mass – and can deliver <a href="https://gameon.nasa.gov/gcd/files/2018/02/FS_NTP_180213.pdf">100,000 Newtons of thrust</a>. That’s enough force to get a car from 0-60 mph in about a quarter of a second.</p>
<p>The second nuclear-based rocket system is called nuclear electric propulsion. <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/2019_Phase_I_Phase_II/SPEAR_Probe/">No nuclear electric systems have been built yet</a>, but the idea is to use a high-power fission reactor to generate electricity that would then power an electrical propulsion system like a Hall thruster. This would be very efficient, about <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a18345717/nasa-ntp-nuclear-engines-mars/">three times better than a nuclear thermal propulsion system</a>. Since the nuclear reactor could create a lot of power, many individual electric thrusters could be operated simultaneously to generate a good amount of thrust. </p>
<p>Nuclear electric systems would be the best choice for extremely long-range missions because they don’t require solar energy, have very high efficiency and can give relatively high thrust. But while nuclear electric rockets are extremely promising, there are still a lot of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/2019_Phase_I_Phase_II/SPEAR_Probe/">technical problems to solve</a> before they are put into use. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335876/original/file-20200518-83393-1ygu5b7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335876/original/file-20200518-83393-1ygu5b7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335876/original/file-20200518-83393-1ygu5b7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335876/original/file-20200518-83393-1ygu5b7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335876/original/file-20200518-83393-1ygu5b7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335876/original/file-20200518-83393-1ygu5b7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335876/original/file-20200518-83393-1ygu5b7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335876/original/file-20200518-83393-1ygu5b7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An artist’s impression of what a nuclear thermal ship built to take humans to Mars could look like.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_thermal_rocket#/media/File:Orion_docked_to_Mars_Transfer_Vehicle.jpg">John Frassanito & Associates/Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why aren’t there nuclear powered rockets yet?</h2>
<p>Nuclear thermal propulsion systems have been studied since the 1960s but have not yet flown in space. </p>
<p><a href="https://aerospace.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/NSC-25-Scientific-or-Technological-Experiements-with-Possible-Large-Scale-Adverse-Environmental-Effects-and-Launch-of-Nuclear-Weapons-into-Space.pdf">Regulations</a> first imposed in the U.S. in the 1970s essentially required case-by-case examination and approval of any nuclear space project from multiple government agencies and explicit approval from the president. Along with a <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-does-trump-administrations-new-memorandum-mean-nuclear-powered-space-missions">lack of funding for nuclear rocket system research</a>, this environment prevented further improvement of nuclear reactors for use in space. </p>
<p>That all changed when the Trump administration issued a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-launch-spacecraft-containing-space-nuclear-systems/">presidential memorandum</a> in August 2019. While upholding the need to keep nuclear launches as safe as possible, the new directive allows for nuclear missions with lower amounts of nuclear material to <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-does-trump-administrations-new-memorandum-mean-nuclear-powered-space-missions">skip the multi-agency approval process</a>. Only the sponsoring agency, like NASA, for example, needs to certify that the mission meets safety recommendations. Larger nuclear missions would go through the same process as before.</p>
<p>Along with this revision of regulations, <a href="https://spacenews.com/final-fiscal-year-2019-budget-bill-secures-21-5-billion-for-nasa/">NASA received US$100 million in the 2019 budget</a> to develop nuclear thermal propulsion. DARPA is also developing a <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2020/02/darpa-doubles-dough-for-nuclear-powered-cislunar-rocket/">space nuclear thermal propulsion system</a> to enable national security operations beyond Earth orbit. </p>
<p>After 60 years of stagnation, it’s possible a nuclear-powered rocket will be heading to space within a decade. This exciting achievement will usher in a new era of space exploration. People will go to Mars and science experiments will make new discoveries all across our solar system and beyond.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re too busy to read everything. We get it. That’s why we’ve got a weekly newsletter.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybusy">Sign up for good Sunday reading.</a> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Boyd receives funding from the following sources, none of it is related to space propulsion:
Office of Naval Research
Lockheed-Martin
Northrop-Grumman
L3-Harris</span></em></p>
An update of 50-year-old regulations has kickstarted research into the next generation of rockets. Powered by nuclear fission, these new systems could be the key to faster, safer exploration of space.
Iain Boyd, Professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/135712
2020-04-27T08:12:56Z
2020-04-27T08:12:56Z
Coronavirus: we’re in a real-time laboratory of a more sustainable urban future
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328085/original/file-20200415-153357-1mommdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daryan Shamkhali/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A pause has been forced on urban life. Quiet roads, empty skies, deserted high streets and parks, closed cinemas, cafés and museums – a break in the spending and work frenzy so familiar to us all. The reality of lockdown is making ghost towns of the places we once knew. Everything we know about our urban world has come to a shuddering halt. For now.</p>
<p>The lockdown will, at some point, end. Urban life will begin to hum again to the familiar rhythms of work, leisure and shopping. This will be a huge relief for us all. Yet our towns and cities will never be the same. Indeed, things might get worse before they get better.</p>
<p>But it’s also the case that other crises haven’t gone away. Our relatively brief lockdown won’t solve longer-term <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/news/2020/apr/capitalisms-triple-crisis-project-syndicate">urban problems</a>: dependence on fossil fuels, rising carbon emissions, poor air quality, dysfunctional housing markets, loss of biodiversity, divisions between the rich and the poor, low paid work. These are going to need our attention again.</p>
<p>The coronavirus crisis has offered a new perspective on these problems – and the limits of the way we have run our urban world over the last few decades. Cities are key nodes in our complex and highly connected global society, facilitating the rapid flow of people, goods and money, the rise of corporate wealth and the privatisation of land, assets and basic services. This has brought gains for some through foreign travel, an abundance of consumer products, inward investment and steady economic growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328093/original/file-20200415-153347-1b2q809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328093/original/file-20200415-153347-1b2q809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328093/original/file-20200415-153347-1b2q809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328093/original/file-20200415-153347-1b2q809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328093/original/file-20200415-153347-1b2q809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328093/original/file-20200415-153347-1b2q809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328093/original/file-20200415-153347-1b2q809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Our cities aren’t built to be sustainable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pedro Lastra/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But we are now seeing a flip side to this globalised urban world. A densely connected world can quickly turn a localised disease into a pandemic; large areas of the economy are run by <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/these-10-companies-control-everything-you-buy-a7400971.html">large corporates</a> who don’t always meet basic public needs; land and resources can <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/19/who-owns-england-secretive-companies-hoarding-land">lie empty</a> for years; and low paid workers in the informal or <a href="https://thesocietypages.org/trot/2019/12/02/precarious-work-in-the-gig-economy/">gig economy</a> can be left exposed with little protection.</p>
<p>This model has the perfect conditions for creating a crisis like coronavirus. It’s also really bad at dealing with it. So something else is required to guide us into the future. The old story – in which cities compete against one another to improve their place in the global pecking order – was never great at meeting everyone’s needs. But now it’s looking very risky, given the need for increased cooperation and local resilience.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>After coronavirus, a key question emerges: what in essence, is a city for? Is it to pursue growth, attract inward investment and compete against global rivals? Or is it to maximise quality of life for all, build local resilience and sustainability? These are not always mutually exclusive, but it’s a question of regaining balance. Beyond politics and ideology, most people simply want to be safe and healthy, especially faced by future threats, be they climate, weather or virus related.</p>
<p>Over the last 20 years as an urban geographer, I have been learning what needs to change to make cities more sustainable, green, fair and accessible. Recently, I described this in <a href="http://www.unlockingsustainablecities.org/">a book</a> alongside a <a href="http://www.unlockingsustainablecities.org/climate-emergency.html">guide for civic leaders</a> on how to tackle the climate emergency. Now, the lockdown has thrown us all into a real-time laboratory full of living examples of what a more sustainable future might look like. We have a perfect opportunity to study and explore which of these could be locked in to build sustainable, and safer, cities.</p>
<p>This has already started. Many things have become possible in the last few weeks. In many places, rapid changes have been unleashed to control the economy, health, transport and food. We are surrounded by fragments of <a href="https://twitter.com/BueRubner/status/1240284049081499648">progressive urban policy</a>: eviction cancellations, nationalised services, free transport and healthcare, sick pay and wage guarantees. There is also a flourishing of community-based <a href="https://covidmutualaid.org/">mutual aid networks</a> as people volunteer to help the most vulnerable with daily tasks. Yesterday’s radical ideas are becoming today’s pragmatic choices.</p>
<p>We can learn a lot from these crisis-led innovations as we create more permanent urban policy choices to make life more pleasant and safer for all. Below I discuss a few key areas of city life that are currently providing some options.</p>
<h2>Breaking car dependency</h2>
<p>Many people around the world are currently surrounded by much quieter streets. This presents us with a huge opportunity to re-imagine and lock in a <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2020/04/coronavirus-city-street-public-transit-bike-lanes-covid-19/609190/">different kind of urban mobility</a>. Some cities are already doing so: Milan, for example, has announced that it will turn <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/milan-seeks-to-prevent-post-crisis-return-of-traffic-pollution">35km of streets</a> over to cyclists and pedestrians after the crisis.</p>
<p>Streets with fewer cars have shown people what more liveable, walkable neighbourhoods would look like. When lockdown is over and society returns to the huge task of reducing transport emissions and improving air quality, we need to remember that lower car use quickly became the new normal. This is important. Reducing traffic levels, <a href="https://policy.friendsoftheearth.uk/insight/more-electric-cars">some say by up to 60%</a> between now and 2030, may be key to avoiding dangerous levels of global warming.</p>
<p>As I have <a href="http://www.unlockingsustainablecities.org/car-free.html">previously outlined</a>, this reduction would address many longstanding urban policy concerns – the erosion of public space, debt, the shift to out of town retail centres and the decline of local high streets, road deaths and casualties, poor air quality and growing carbon emissions. Accessible, affordable, zero-carbon, <a href="https://www.arcadis.com/media/8/B/8/%7B8B887B3A-F4C4-40AB-AFFD-08382CC593E5%7DSustainable%20Cities%20Mobility%20Index.pdf">public transport</a> is key to supporting a less car dependent urban future.</p>
<p>This crisis has revealed the significant inequalities in people’s ability to move about cities. In many countries, including my own (the UK), deregulation and privatisation has facilitated corporate operators to run bits of the transport system in the interest of shareholders rather than users. Millions face <a href="https://www.poverty.ac.uk/report-transport/transport-poverty-hits-15-million-people">transport poverty</a>, where they can’t afford to own and run a car, and lack access to affordable mass transit options. This has taken a new twist during this crisis. For many vulnerable people, whether there is a transit system to access hospitals, food and other essential services can be a matter of life or death.</p>
<p>COVID-19 has also highlighted how key workers underpin our daily lives. Creating good quality affordable transport for them is therefore <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/demands-nhs-staff-and-key-workers-get-free-bus-travel-2518945">crucial</a>. Some awareness of this existed before coronavirus: in 2018 <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/oct/15/i-leave-the-car-at-home-how-free-buses-are-revolutionising-one-french-city">one French city</a> introduced free buses, while <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/05/luxembourg-to-become-first-country-to-make-all-public-transport-free">Luxembourg</a> made all its public transport free. But in the wake of the current crisis places across the world have been creating free transit, especially to <a href="https://www.wmca.org.uk/news/free-bus-and-tram-travel-for-all-nhs-staff-during-coronavirus-outbreak/">key workers</a> and for <a href="https://www.ksby.com/news/coronavirus/morro-bay-transit-to-provide-free-bus-service-amid-covid-19-pandemic">vulnerable people</a>.</p>
<p>To meet ambitious targets for emission reductions, there needs to be <a href="https://airqualitynews.com/2019/08/22/phase-out-personal-car-by-2035-to-hit-climate-targets-mps-say/">a significant shift</a> away from personal car use within a decade or so. The pandemic has offered insights into how this could be achieved through limiting car use for essential uses and those with mobility issues, with affordable public transport becoming the new norm for most people in cities.</p>
<p>Building active travel networks across regions also makes more sense than ever. <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/30/21199401/london-health-workers-ebike-free-loan-public-transport-coronavirus">Bikes</a> have been seen by many places as <a href="https://www.citylab.com/perspective/2020/03/coronavirus-bike-lane-emergency-transportation-covid-19/608725/">better options</a> for getting around. Walking and cycling infrastructure can play a huge role in getting people around effectively and also <a href="https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/improving-publics-health/active-and-safe-travel">making them healthier</a>.</p>
<p>The inadequacies of pedestrian space have also been revealed, especially for effective social distancing. To build in future resilience, there’s a strong rationale for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/world-cities-turn-their-streets-over-to-walkers-and-cyclists?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet">creating generous pavements and sidewalks</a> that take space from motor vehicles. And, given there are around 6,000 pedestrians killed or seriously injured in <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/834585/reported-road-casualties-annual-report-2018.pdf">road accidents</a> every year in the UK, a roll out of lower speed limits could help <a href="https://www.eta.co.uk/2020/04/09/doctors-demand-20mph-urban-speed-limit-to-help-ease-current-pressure-on-nhs/">reduce hospital admissions</a> and make a contribution in future epidemic management.</p>
<p>The lockdown has also brought about <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d184fa0a-6904-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3">significant reductions</a> in air pollution. One study estimated that the lockdown in China saved <a href="http://www.g-feed.com/2020/03/covid-19-reduces-economic-activity.html">77,000 lives</a> just by reducing this pollution. Such reductions are particularly key given that worse air quality could <a href="https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm">increase the risk of death</a> from COVID-19. Given the <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/186406/air-pollution-england-could-cost-much/">health and social care costs</a> associated with dealing with poor air quality, current increases in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-big-drop-air-pollution">cleaner air</a> need to be locked in to reduce the burden on health services for the future.</p>
<p>Aviation has taken a hit, with <a href="https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/charting-the-decline-in-air-traffic-caused-by-covid-19/">total flights</a> declining by more than half during the crisis. This offers a glimpse of the types and volumes of flying that might feel surplus to requirements in the future.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-future-do-airlines-have-three-experts-discuss-135365">What future do airlines have? Three experts discuss</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Cities will need to move quickly to lock in these lower mobility expectations, especially low car volumes, less aviation, quality affordable mass transit and active travel. We are all living the reality of simply travelling less, and shifting activity online. This is a huge opportunity to review working practices, leisure and retail habits, and argue for spending to support affordable and sustainable travel for all.</p>
<h2>The socially useful city</h2>
<p>We have become used to the shortcomings of the modern city economy – low paid and precarious jobs, independent businesses squeezed out by large corporations, land and resources shifting from private to public hands, growing divisions between rich and poor neighbourhoods. Coronavirus has thrown many of these into stark relief. </p>
<p>Low earning workers, especially women, have few options but to continue working and be <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2020/03/protect-paid-workers-coronavirus-pandemic-200316191054579.html">exposed to infection</a>, hospitals struggle for <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/18bf272b-0b3c-433c-a484-7f653c82ff1b">basic equipment</a>, those in higher income neighbourhoods have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/07/lockdown-britain-victorian-class-divide">better spaces</a> for exercise and leisure.</p>
<p>But what has been most staggering about the response to the crisis is the rapid uptake of measures that only days ago would have been <a href="https://twitter.com/frnsys/status/1238537548386967553">unthinkable</a>: mortgage and rent holidays, statutory sick pay, shifts to nationalise services especially health and transport, wage guarantees, suspending evictions, and debt cancellations. The current crisis has started to rip up ideas led by the free market.</p>
<p>We now seem to be revaluing what matters. Rather than being considered low skilled extras on the fringes of the economy, key workers, especially in health and food, <a href="https://clapforourcarers.co.uk/">are being revered</a> for the role they play in supporting our wellbeing. Local shops are experiencing <a href="https://www.expressandstar.com/news/business/2020/03/23/why-local-shops-are-playing-an-important-role-in-the-wake-of-panic-buying/">renewed support</a> as they offer stronger personal connections and commitment to their community. These tendencies are an opportunity to restructure high streets and create diverse local markets which can meet community needs and build resilience to weather future crises.</p>
<p>This crisis has also highlighted who has enough money to live on. Beyond government job retention and self-employed income schemes, more radical propositions are emerging that are changing people’s relationship to work. A <a href="https://citizensincome.org/">universal basic income</a> is an idea that has come of age during this crisis – an unconditional, automatic non-means tested payment to every individual as a right of citizenship. The <a href="https://www.currentaffairs.org/2020/04/spains-ubi-is-a-wake-up-call-for-americans">Spanish government</a> has agreed to roll out such a scheme nationally as soon as possible, and there is <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/can-universal-basic-income-fix-the-coronavirus-crisis">sustained interest</a> in many other places. </p>
<p>The idea of a minimum income guarantee is also gaining momentum; a renewed interest in the idea of a universal and unconditional safety net that can offer dignity and safety and offer options for more <a href="https://basicincome.org/news/2016/08/basic-income-sustainable-consumption-degrowth-movement/">sustainable living</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.ess-europe.eu/sites/default/files/publications/files/ariadne-social-economy-in-the-uk.pdf">social economy</a> can provide further insights for refocusing city economies after coronavirus. Made up of community businesses, co-operatives and voluntary organisations, this social economy creates goods, services and employment that are more locally based, and community grounded in a <a href="https://www.powertochange.org.uk/get-inspired/stories/">range of areas</a>: renewable energy, sustainable housing, food and micro finance. They build in benefits including local employment and procurement, fairer pay, better conditions, sustainable resource use, democratic accountability, and a commitment to social justice.</p>
<p>Derelict buildings and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/oct/25/developers-hog-land-for-record-130000-homes-analysis-reveals">land banked</a> by large scale developers could be <a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/12081_19-Land-for-the-Many.pdf">redeployed by community organisations</a> to build <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0309132518821173">local resilience</a> through community farms, renewables and housing, as well as leisure, local biodiversity and carbon storage.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328088/original/file-20200415-153318-1ypn50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328088/original/file-20200415-153318-1ypn50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328088/original/file-20200415-153318-1ypn50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328088/original/file-20200415-153318-1ypn50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328088/original/file-20200415-153318-1ypn50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328088/original/file-20200415-153318-1ypn50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328088/original/file-20200415-153318-1ypn50i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Lilac Leeds, a housing cooperative.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Andy Lord</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>It’s also clear that parts of the economy, such as gambling and advertising corporations, bailiffs and corporate lobbyists, are less socially useful than others. There are signs of how the economy can change in positive directions. Many firms are temporarily shifting to <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/27/21197015/general-motors-ventilators-ventec-coronavirus-covid-19-trump-defense-production-act">more socially useful production</a>, making, for example, hand sanitiser, ventilators and medical wear.</p>
<p>These short term glimpses of a more socially useful economy should provide inspiration when considering future urban economic planning. Factories might transition to manufacturing wind turbines, e-bikes, insulation panels and heat pumps. And excess downtown corporate office space or luxury apartments could be retrofitted to support socially useful activities – key worker accommodation, libraries, creches, day centres, colleges for transition skills, and co-working spaces.</p>
<h2>A green urban commons</h2>
<p>Further greening of cities after coronavirus would offer real and widespread benefits. During lockdown, many people are more aware how little <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/private-schools-land-targeted-for-families-without-gardens">green space</a> they have access to on their doorsteps. Many are also stuck in cramped conditions with little or no access to outdoor spaces. </p>
<p>Quality public and green places need to be radically expanded so people can gather and heal after the trauma of this experience. Now is a good time to supercharge such plans. Diverse green spaces directly underpin our <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5663018/">emotional and psychological wellbeing</a> and offer a range of <a href="https://leaf.leeds.ac.uk/green-space/">positive effects</a> on carbon sequestration, air purification and wildlife preservation. </p>
<p>Neighbourhood design <a href="https://www.biophiliccities.org/">inspired by nature</a> can support this. Interweaving the places we live with extensive natural spaces linked to active travel opportunities can reduce car dependency, increase biodiversity and create options for meaningful leisure on our doorsteps. They can also incorporate local food production and features to cope with flooding, such as sustainable urban drainage and water gardens, further increasing future crisis resilience. </p>
<p>There’s also a strong rationale for prioritising street-by-street retrofit. In the event of future lockdowns during cold months, warm, low energy and well insulated homes can help reduce other problems around fuel poverty and <a href="https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng6/chapter/3-Context">excess winter deaths</a>.</p>
<p>This moment offers a real opportunity to lay the foundations for a new deal for nature and animals. This is more important now than ever. Animals and wildlife, normally in <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/">rapid decline</a>, are finding ways to <a href="http://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20200330-wild-animals-wander-through-deserted-cities-under-covid-19-lockdown-ducks-paris-puma-santiago-civet-kerala">regain a foothold</a> in this respite of human activity – but they may be <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-what-the-lockdown-could-mean-for-urban-wildlife-134918">further threatened</a> when lockdown comes to an end. Ways to create a more equal balance with our fellow species include <a href="https://www.arup.com/perspectives/rewilding-cities-for-resilience">expanding habitats for wildlife</a>, restoring damaged natural areas, reducing dependency on intensive animal farming as well as meat-based diets.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328087/original/file-20200415-153318-ux259p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328087/original/file-20200415-153318-ux259p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328087/original/file-20200415-153318-ux259p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328087/original/file-20200415-153318-ux259p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328087/original/file-20200415-153318-ux259p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328087/original/file-20200415-153318-ux259p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328087/original/file-20200415-153318-ux259p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328087/original/file-20200415-153318-ux259p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nature city: a vision.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© James McKay</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition, <a href="https://ensia.com/features/covid-19-coronavirus-biodiversity-planetary-health-zoonoses/">researchers</a> are starting to understand how <a href="https://academic.oup.com/femspd/article/77/9/ftaa006/5739327">zoonotic diseases</a> (those transferred from animals to humans) like COVID-19 may be a hidden outcome of the global scale of human development. A recent report by the <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/coronaviruses-are-they-here-stay">UN Environment Programme</a> explored how the rapid growth of urban populations across the world along with reductions in pristine ecosystems, are creating opportunities for pathogens to pass between animals and people. Regenerating and protecting natural spaces could be a key part of future disease resilience.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>COVID-19 clearly presents a significant juncture. There is still trauma and loss ahead. There may be market collapse and a prolonged depression. There are also tendencies towards political and corporate bodies <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/5dmqyk/naomi-klein-interview-on-coronavirus-and-disaster-capitalism-shock-doctrine">exploiting this crisis</a> for their own ends. </p>
<p>For our urban world this could mean more of the negatives discussed earlier – insecurity, privatisation, division and authoritarianism. And as lockdown ends, there may be a rebound effect, as people understandably rush to embrace travel, work and consumerism, creating a significant emissions and pollution <a href="https://airqualitynews.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-could-be-bad-news-for-air-pollution-in-long-term-warns-scientist/">surge</a>.</p>
<p>No particular urban future is inevitable. The future story, and reality, of our towns and cities is up for grabs. The positives that are glimpsed during this crisis could feasibly be locked in and scaled up to create a fairer, greener, safer urban future. We can all live well, and even flourish, in cities even if we have and do a <a href="http://www.newweather.org/2020/03/17/why-and-how-rationing-works-lessons-from-rapid-civic-mobilisation/">little bit less</a> of the things we have become used to. Revaluing what’s important – community, friendship, family life – allows us to see how much we already have that can <a href="https://connected-communities.org">improve our wellbeing</a>.</p>
<p>Often ideas start to converge under a single banner. Many in this article can be understood through the idea of the <a href="https://greennewdealgroup.org/">Green New Deal</a> – a proposed set of policies to tackle climate change and inequality, create good jobs and protect nature. It’s an approach which has a lot to offer cities after this coronavirus crisis. It points to an urban economy based on key foundations of public services, an economy operating within the ecological limits of our precious biosphere, with a social safety net for all. These ideas are now being seriously considered by some cities, such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/amsterdam-doughnut-model-mend-post-coronavirus-economy">Amsterdam</a>, as they think about how to rebuild their economies. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328099/original/file-20200415-153341-1srjidz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328099/original/file-20200415-153341-1srjidz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328099/original/file-20200415-153341-1srjidz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328099/original/file-20200415-153341-1srjidz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328099/original/file-20200415-153341-1srjidz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328099/original/file-20200415-153341-1srjidz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328099/original/file-20200415-153341-1srjidz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Allotments in an old airport: Tempelhofer Feld, Berlin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/berlin-germany-sep-28-2016-urban-1348993370">Matej Kastelic/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How city governance responds in this crisis and afterwards will be key. There will certainly be a much bigger role for the state, and this might be more authoritarian as recent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/world/europe/coronavirus-governments-power.html">emergency powers</a> over border controls, surveillance and enforced quarantines attest. </p>
<p>But there is a way of countering these tendencies – by creating an enabling, responsive, participatory state where solutions are reached with citizens, rather than imposed on them. A meaningful <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-2427.12607">state-civil society</a> contract means the state can act powerfully but also take the side of citizens, through, for example shifting assets, resources, taxes and welfare in their favour. We are seeing glimpses of this already through a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/anti.12520">new municiaplism</a>, with Barcelona as one of the leading examples. </p>
<p>It’s difficult to predict how things will actually turn out in such a fast moving environment. What I have presented here are some glimpses of doable, commonsense actions that could be used to build sustainable cities out of the coronavirus crisis.</p>
<h2>Ten ideas to improve cities</h2>
<p>These can be summed up in ten ideas that cities could implement after this crisis:</p>
<ol>
<li>Reallocate road space for daily exercise and active travel</li>
<li>Subsidise free buses for key workers, and re-regulate public transport to create affordable, zero-carbon mass transit</li>
<li>Trial wage guarantee or basic income schemes to make sure no one is left behind</li>
<li>Shift subsidies to promote socially useful production</li>
<li>Plan to ensure homes are warm and comfortable for any future crises</li>
<li>Allocate unused land for exercise, leisure, wildlife and biodiversity</li>
<li>Support community businesses and provide land to increase the supply of local food</li>
<li>Commit to speed reductions to reduce deaths and ease the strain on health services</li>
<li>Create more support for local businesses and invest in local shops and high streets</li>
<li>Use indicators to count the things that matter, especially unpaid care work, key workers, quality of life, and environmental protection.</li>
</ol>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-future-do-airlines-have-three-experts-discuss-135365?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">What future do airlines have? Three experts discuss</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/lockdown-lessons-from-the-history-of-solitude-134611?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Lockdown lessons from the history of solitude</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-world-be-like-after-coronavirus-four-possible-futures-134085?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four possible futures</a></em></p></li>
</ul>
<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Chatterton receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>
We can lock in these changes to build sustainable cities out of the coronavirus crisis – here’s how.
Paul Chatterton, Professor of Urban Futures, University of Leeds
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/134085
2020-03-30T10:26:56Z
2020-03-30T10:26:56Z
What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four possible futures
<p>Where will we be in six months, a year, ten years from now? I lie awake at night wondering what the future holds for my loved ones. My vulnerable friends and relatives. I wonder what will happen to my job, even though I’m luckier than many: I get good sick pay and can work remotely. I am writing this from the UK, where I still have self-employed friends who are staring down the barrel of months without pay, friends who have already lost jobs. The contract that pays 80% of my salary runs out in December. Coronavirus is hitting the economy badly. Will anyone be hiring when I need work?</p>
<p>There are a number of possible futures, all dependent on how governments and society respond to coronavirus and its economic aftermath. Hopefully we will use this crisis to rebuild, produce something better and more humane. But we may slide into something worse.</p>
<p>I think we can understand our situation – and what might lie in our future – by looking at the political economy of other crises. My research focuses on the fundamentals of the modern economy: <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652615011737">global supply chains</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800918306591">wages</a>, and <a href="https://www.cusp.ac.uk/themes/powering-productivity/">productivity</a>. I look at the way that economic dynamics contribute to challenges like <a href="https://newsocialist.org.uk/climate-capitalism-political-marxism">climate change</a> and low levels of mental and physical health among <a href="https://www.cusp.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/pp-wellbeing-report.pdf#ppwm">workers</a>. I have argued that we need a very different kind of economics if we are to build socially just and ecologically sound <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092180091930415X">futures</a>. In the face of COVID-19, this has never been more obvious.</p>
<p>The responses to the COVID-19 pandemic are simply the amplification of the dynamic that drives other social and ecological crises: the prioritisation of one type of value over others. This dynamic has played a large part in driving global responses to COVID-19. So as responses to the virus evolve, how might our economic futures develop?</p>
<p>From an economic perspective, there are four possible futures: a descent into barbarism, a robust state capitalism, a radical state socialism, and a transformation into a big society built on mutual aid. Versions of all of these futures are perfectly possible, if not equally desirable.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>You can listen to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-depth-out-loud-podcast-four-possible-futures-for-what-the-world-will-be-like-after-coronavirus-137354">audio version of this article</a>.</strong></em></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322910/original/file-20200325-168922-j4283j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322910/original/file-20200325-168922-j4283j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322910/original/file-20200325-168922-j4283j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322910/original/file-20200325-168922-j4283j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322910/original/file-20200325-168922-j4283j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322910/original/file-20200325-168922-j4283j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322910/original/file-20200325-168922-j4283j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What might our future hold?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jose Antonio Gallego Vázquez/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Small changes don’t cut it</h2>
<p>Coronavirus, like climate change, is partly a problem of our economic structure. Although both appear to be “environmental” or “natural” problems, they are socially driven.</p>
<p>Yes, climate change is caused by certain gases absorbing heat. But that’s a very shallow explanation. To really understand climate change, we need to understand the social reasons that keep us emitting greenhouse gases. Likewise with COVID-19. Yes, the direct cause is the virus. But managing its effects requires us to understand human behaviour and its wider economic context. </p>
<p>Tackling both COVID-19 and climate change is much easier if you reduce nonessential economic activity. For climate change this is because if you produce less stuff, you use less energy, and emit fewer greenhouse gases. The epidemiology of COVID-19 is rapidly evolving. But the core logic is similarly simple. People mix together and spread infections. This happens in households, and in workplaces, and on the journeys people make. Reducing this mixing is likely to reduce person-to-person transmission and <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30073-6/fulltext">lead to fewer cases overall</a>. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>Reducing contact between people probably also helps with other control strategies. One common control strategy for infectious disease outbreaks is contact tracing and isolation, where an infected person’s contacts are identified, then isolated to prevent further disease spread. This is most effective when you trace a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30162-6/fulltext">high percentage of contacts</a>. The fewer contacts a person has, the fewer you have to trace to get to that higher percentage. </p>
<p>We can see from Wuhan that social distancing and lockdown measures like this <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6482/1061.summary">are effective</a>. Political economy is useful in helping us understand why they weren’t introduced earlier in European countries and the US.</p>
<h2>A fragile economy</h2>
<p>Lockdown is placing pressure on the global economy. <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21188900/coronavirus-stock-market-recession-depression-trump-jobs-unemployment">We face a serious recession</a>. This pressure has led some world leaders to call for an easing of lockdown measures.</p>
<p>Even as 19 countries sat in a state of lockdown, the US president, Donald Trump, and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro called for roll backs in mitigation measures. Trump called for the American economy to get back to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-response-trump-wants-to-reopen-us-economy-by-easter.html">normal in three weeks</a> (he has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/trump-says-keeping-us-covid-19-deaths-to-100000-would-be-a-very-good-job">now accepted</a> that social distancing will need to be maintained for much longer). Bolsonaro <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-52040205">said</a>: “Our lives have to go on. Jobs must be kept … We must, yes, get back to normal.” </p>
<p>In the UK meanwhile, four days before calling for a three-week lockdown, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was only marginally less optimistic, saying that the UK could turn the tide <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/boris-johnson-uk-can-turn-tide-of-coronavirus-in-12-weeks">within 12 weeks</a>. Yet even if Johnson is correct, it remains the case that we are living with an economic system that will threaten collapse at the next sign of pandemic. </p>
<p>The economics of collapse are fairly straightforward. Businesses exist to make a profit. If they can’t produce, they can’t sell things. This means they won’t make profits, which means they are less able to employ you. Businesses can and do (over short time periods) hold on to workers that they don’t need immediately: they want to be able to meet demand when the economy picks back up again. But, if things start to look really bad, then they won’t. So, more people lose their jobs or fear losing their jobs. So they buy less. And the whole cycle starts again, and we spiral into an economic depression.</p>
<p>In a normal crisis the prescription for solving this is simple. The government spends, and it spends until people start consuming and working again. (This prescription is what the economist John Maynard Keynes is famous for).</p>
<p>But normal interventions won’t work here because we don’t want the economy to recover (at least, not immediately). The whole point of the lockdown is to stop people going to work, where they spread the disease. One <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30073-6/fulltext">recent study</a> suggested that lifting lockdown measures in Wuhan (including workplace closures) too soon could see China experience a second peak of cases later in 2020. </p>
<p>As the economist James Meadway <a href="https://tribunemag.co.uk/2020/03/the-anti-wartime-economy">wrote</a>, the correct COVID-19 response isn’t a wartime economy – with massive upscaling of production. Rather, we need an “anti-wartime” economy and a massive scaling back of production. And if we want to be more resilient to pandemics in the future (and to avoid the worst of climate change) we need a system capable of scaling back production in a way that doesn’t mean loss of livelihood. </p>
<p>So what we need is a different economic mindset. We tend to think of the economy as the way we buy and sell things, mainly consumer goods. But this is not what an economy is or needs to be. At its core, the economy is the way we take our resources and turn them into the things we <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=7A4lDgAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&pg=PA62#v=onepage&q&f=false">need to live</a>. Looked at this way, we can start to see more opportunities for living differently that allow us to produce less stuff without increasing misery.</p>
<p>I and other ecological economists have long been concerned with the question of how you produce less in a socially just way, because the challenge of producing less is also central to tackling climate change. All else equal, the more we produce the more greenhouse gases <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-growth-is-trusted-to-fix-climate-change-heres-the-problem-with-that-120785">we emit</a>. So how do you reduce the amount of stuff you make while keeping people in work? </p>
<p>Proposals include <a href="https://autonomy.work/portfolio/the-shorter-working-week-a-report-from-autonomy-in-collaboration-with-members-of-the-4-day-week-campaign/">reducing the length</a> of the working week, or, as some of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092180091930415X">my recent work</a> has looked at, you could allow people to work more slowly and with less pressure. Neither of these is directly applicable to COVID-19, where the aim is reducing contact rather than output, but the core of the proposals is the same. You have to reduce people’s dependence on a wage to be able to live.</p>
<h2>What is the economy for?</h2>
<p>The key to understanding responses to COVID-19 is the question of what the economy is for. Currently, the primary aim of the global economy is to facilitate exchanges of money. This is what economists call “exchange value”.</p>
<p>The dominant idea of the current system we live in is that exchange value is the same thing as use value. Basically, people will spend money on the things that they want or need, and this act of spending money tells us something about how much they value its “use”. This is why markets are seen as the best way to run society. They allow you to adapt, and are flexible enough to match up productive capacity with use value.</p>
<p>What COVID-19 is throwing into sharp relief is just how false our beliefs about markets are. Around the world, governments fear that critical systems will be disrupted or overloaded: supply chains, social care, but principally healthcare. There are lots of contributing factors to this. But let’s take two.</p>
<p>First, it is quite hard to make money from many of the most essential societal services. This is in part because a major driver of profits is labour productivity growth: doing more with fewer people. People are a big cost factor in many businesses, especially those that rely on personal interactions, like healthcare. Consequently, productivity growth in the healthcare sector tends to be lower than the rest of the economy, so its costs go up <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=Wytf9x7RVUUC&oi=fnd&pg=PP2&dq=baumol+healthcare+costs&ots=saGDQ5I95E&sig=p9KIBkHBbQpkOLG1d1DmovwL_z0#v=onepage&q=baumol%20healthcare%20costs&f=false">faster than average</a>.</p>
<p>Second, jobs in many critical services aren’t those that tend to be highest valued in society. Many of the best paid jobs only exist to facilitate exchanges; to make money. They serve no wider purpose to society: they are what the anthropologist David Graeber calls “<a href="https://www.strike.coop/bullshit-jobs/">bullshit jobs</a>”. Yet because they make lots of money we have lots of consultants, a huge advertising industry and a massive financial sector. Meanwhile, we have a crisis in health and social care, where people are often forced out of useful jobs they enjoy, because these jobs don’t pay them <a href="https://www.cusp.ac.uk/themes/s2/wellbeing-care-robots/">enough to live</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322986/original/file-20200325-168912-1832m8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322986/original/file-20200325-168912-1832m8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322986/original/file-20200325-168912-1832m8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322986/original/file-20200325-168912-1832m8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322986/original/file-20200325-168912-1832m8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322986/original/file-20200325-168912-1832m8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322986/original/file-20200325-168912-1832m8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bullshit jobs are innumerable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/isometric-office-cubicles-men-women-working-230150206">Jesus Sanz/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Pointless jobs</h2>
<p>The fact that so many people work pointless jobs is partly why we are so ill prepared to respond to COVID-19. The pandemic is highlighting that many jobs are not essential, yet we lack sufficient key workers to respond when things go bad.</p>
<p>People are compelled to work pointless jobs because in a society where exchange value is the guiding principle of the economy, the basic goods of life are mainly available through markets. This means you have to buy them, and to buy them you need an income, which comes from a job. </p>
<p>The other side of this coin is that the most radical (and effective) responses that we are seeing to the COVID-19 outbreak challenge the dominance of markets and exchange value. Around the world governments are taking actions that three months ago looked impossible. In Spain, private hospitals <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-spain-nationalises-private-hospitals-emergency-covid-19-lockdown-2020-3?r=US&IR=T">have been nationalised</a>. In the UK, the prospect of nationalising <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-airline-railways-bus-nationalised-uk-grant-shapps-covid-19-a9407276.html">various modes of transport</a> has become very real. And France has stated its readiness to nationalise <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7eb398ac-6839-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3">large businesses</a>.</p>
<p>Likewise, we are seeing the breakdown of labour markets. Countries like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/18/denmark-coronavirus-uk-government-workers-employees">Denmark</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/20/government-pay-wages-jobs-coronavirus-rishi-sunak">the UK</a> are providing people with an income in order to stop them from going to work. This is an essential part of a successful lockdown. These measures are <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1a69d69f-06de-4af7-972b-52f2f4d9a3f5">far from perfect</a>. Nonetheless, it is a shift from the principle that people have to work in order to earn their income, and a move towards the idea that people deserve to be able to live even if they cannot work.</p>
<p>This reverses the dominant trends of the last 40 years. Over this time, markets and exchange values have been seen as the best way of running an economy. Consequently, public systems have come under increasing pressures to marketise, to be run as though they were businesses who have to make money. Likewise, workers have become more and more exposed to the market – zero-hours contracts and the gig economy have removed the layer of protection from market fluctuations that long term, stable, employment used to offer.</p>
<p>COVID-19 appears to be reversing this trend, taking healthcare and labour goods out of the market and putting it into the hands of the state. States produce for many reasons. Some good and some bad. But unlike markets, they do not have to produce for exchange value alone.</p>
<p>These changes give me hope. They give us the chance to save many lives. They even hint at the possibility of longer term change that makes us happier and helps us <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-getting-rid-of-shit-jobs-and-the-metric-of-productivity-can-combat-climate-change-123541">tackle climate change</a>. But why did it take us so long to get here? Why were many countries so ill-prepared to slowdown production? The answer lies in a recent World Health Organisation report: they did not have the right “<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf">mindset</a>”.</p>
<h2>Our economic imaginations</h2>
<p>There has been a broad economic consensus for 40 years. This has limited the ability of politicians and their advisers to see cracks in the system, or <a href="https://novaramedia.com/2011/09/13/capitalist-realism-in-discussion-with-mark-fisher/">imagine alternatives</a>. This mindset is driven by two linked beliefs: </p>
<ul>
<li>The market is what delivers a good quality of life, so it must be protected</li>
<li>The market will always return to normal after short periods of crisis</li>
</ul>
<p>These views are common to many Western countries. But they are strongest in the UK and the US, both of which have appeared to be <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532693-500-coronavirus-how-well-prepared-are-countries-for-a-covid-19-pandemic/">badly prepared </a>to respond to COVID-19. </p>
<p>In the UK, attendees at a private engagement reportedly <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-ten-days-that-shook-britain-and-changed-the-nation-for-ever-spz6sc9vb">summarised</a> the Prime Minister’s most senior aide’s approach to COVID-19 as “herd immunity, protect the economy, and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”. The government has denied this, but if real, it’s not surprising. At a government event early in the pandemic, a senior civil servant said to me: “Is it worth the economic disruption? If you look at the treasury valuation of a life, probably not.”</p>
<p>This kind of view is endemic in a particular elite class. It is well represented by a Texas official who argued that many elderly people would gladly die rather than see the US sink into <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/older-people-would-rather-die-than-let-covid-19-lockdown-harm-us-economy-texas-official-dan-patrick">economic depression</a>. This view endangers many vulnerable people (and not all vulnerable people are elderly), and, as I have tried to lay out here, it is a false choice. </p>
<p>One of the things the COVID-19 crisis could be doing, is expanding that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/24/coronavirus-crisis-change-world-financial-global-capitalism">economic imagination</a>. As governments and citizens take steps that three months ago seemed impossible, our ideas about how the world works could change rapidly. Let us look at where this re-imagining could take us.</p>
<h2>Four futures</h2>
<p>To help us visit the future, I’m going to use a <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/books/1847-four-futures">technique</a> from the field of futures studies. You take two factors you think will be important in driving the future, and you imagine what will happen under different combinations of those factors.</p>
<p>The factors I want to take are value and centralisation. Value refers to whatever is the guiding principle of our economy. Do we use our resources to maximise exchanges and money, or do we use them to maximise life? Centralisation refers to the ways that things are organised, either by of lots of small units or by one big commanding force. We can organise these factors into a grid, which can then be populated with scenarios. So we can think about what might happen if we try to respond to the coronavirus with the four extreme combinations: </p>
<p>1) <strong>State capitalism</strong>: centralised response, prioritising exchange value<br>
2) <strong>Barbarism</strong>: decentralised response prioritising exchange value<br>
3) <strong>State socialism</strong>: centralised response, prioritising the protection of life<br>
4) <strong>Mutual aid</strong>: decentralised response prioritising the protection of life. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323253/original/file-20200326-132965-15inuhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323253/original/file-20200326-132965-15inuhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323253/original/file-20200326-132965-15inuhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323253/original/file-20200326-132965-15inuhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323253/original/file-20200326-132965-15inuhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323253/original/file-20200326-132965-15inuhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323253/original/file-20200326-132965-15inuhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The four futures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Simon Mair</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>State capitalism</h2>
<p>State capitalism is the dominant response we are seeing across the world right now. Typical examples are the UK, Spain and Denmark.</p>
<p>The state capitalist society continues to pursue exchange value as the guiding light of the economy. But it recognises that markets in crisis require support from the state. Given that many workers cannot work because they are ill, and fear for their lives, the state steps in with extended welfare. It also enacts massive Keynesian stimulus by extending credit and making direct payments to businesses. </p>
<p>The expectation here is that this will be for a short period. The primary function of the steps being taken is to allow as many businesses as possible to keep on trading. In the UK, for example, food is still distributed by markets (though the government has relaxed competition laws). Where workers are supported directly, this is done in ways that seek to minimise disruption of normal labour market functioning. So, for example, as in the UK, payments to workers have to be applied for and distributed by employers. And the size of payments is made on the basis of the exchange value a worker <a href="https://www.cusp.ac.uk/themes/aetw/fair-wages/">usually creates</a> in the market, rather than the usefulness of their work.</p>
<p>Could this be a successful scenario? Possibly, but only if COVID-19 proves controllable over a short period. As full lockdown is avoided to maintain market functioning, transmission of infection is still likely to continue. In the UK, for instance, non-essential construction <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/25/uk-construction-firms-split-over-coronavirus-shutdown">is still continuing</a>, leaving workers mixing on building sites. But limited state intervention will become increasingly hard to maintain if death tolls rise. Increased illness and death will provoke unrest and deepen economic impacts, forcing the state to take more and more radical actions to try to maintain market functioning.</p>
<h2>Barbarism</h2>
<p>This is the bleakest scenario. Barbarism is the future if we continue to rely on exchange value as our guiding principle and yet refuse to extend support to those who get locked out of markets by illness or unemployment. It describes a situation that we have not yet seen.</p>
<p>Businesses fail and workers starve because there are no mechanisms in place to protect them from the harsh realities of the market. Hospitals are not supported by extraordinary measures, and so become overwhelmed. People die. Barbarism is ultimately an unstable state that ends in ruin or a transition to one of the other grid sections after a period of political and social devastation. </p>
<p>Could this happen? The concern is that either it could happen by mistake during the pandemic, or by intention after the pandemic peaks. The mistake is if a government fails to step in in a big enough way during the worst of the pandemic. Support might be offered to businesses and households, but if this isn’t enough to prevent market collapse in the face of widespread illness, chaos would ensue. Hospitals might be sent extra funds and people, but if it’s not enough, ill people will be turned away in large numbers. </p>
<p>Potentially just as consequential is the possibility of massive austerity after the pandemic has peaked and governments seek to return to “normal”. This has been threatened <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/germany-to-return-to-austerity-after-coronavirus-crisis-minister-12571010">in Germany</a>. This would be disastrous. Not least because defunding of critical services during austerity has impacted the ability of countries <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/austerity-has-crippled-the-uks-response-to-the-coronavirus-crisis">to respond to this pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>The subsequent failure of the economy and society would trigger political and social unrest, leading to a failed state and the collapse of both state and community welfare systems.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C-ADAwfrwGs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>State socialism</h2>
<p>State socialism describes the first of the futures we could see with a cultural shift that places a different kind of value at the heart of the economy. This is the future we arrive at with an extension of the measures we are currently seeing in the UK, Spain and Denmark.</p>
<p>The key here is that measures like nationalisation of hospitals and payments to workers are seen not as tools to protect markets, but a way to protect life itself. In such a scenario, the state steps in to protect the parts of the economy that are essential to life: the production of food, energy and shelter for instance, so that the basic provisions of life are no longer at the whim of the market. The state nationalises hospitals, and makes housing freely available. Finally, it provides all citizens with a means of accessing various goods – both basics and any consumer goods we are able to produce with a reduced workforce.</p>
<p>Citizens no longer rely on employers as intermediaries between them and the basic materials of life. Payments are made to everyone directly and are not related to the exchange value they create. Instead, payments are the same to all (on the basis that we deserve to be able to live, simply because we are alive), or they are based on the usefulness of the work. Supermarket workers, delivery drivers, warehouse stackers, nurses, teachers, and doctors are the new CEOs.</p>
<p>It’s possible that state socialism emerges as a consequence of attempts at state capitalism and the effects of a prolonged pandemic. If deep recessions happen and there is disruption in supply chains such that demand cannot be rescued by the kind of standard Keynesian policies we are seeing now (printing money, making loans easier to get and so on), the state may take over production. </p>
<p>There are risks to this approach – we must be careful to avoid authoritarianism. But done well, this may be our best hope against an extreme COVID-19 outbreak. A strong state able to marshal the resources to protect the core functions of economy and society.</p>
<h2>Mutual aid</h2>
<p>Mutual aid is the second future in which we adopt the protection of life as the guiding principle of our economy. But, in this scenario, the state does not take a defining role. Rather, individuals and small groups begin to organise support and care within their communities.</p>
<p>The risks with this future is that small groups are unable to rapidly mobilise the kind of resources needed to effectively increase healthcare capacity, for instance. But mutual aid could enable more effective transmission prevention, by building community support networks that protect the vulnerable and police isolation rules. The most ambitious form of this future sees new democratic structures arise. Groupings of communities that are able to mobilise substantial resources with relative speed. People coming together to plan regional responses to stop disease spread and (if they have the skills) to treat patients.</p>
<p>This kind of scenario could emerge from any of the others. It is a possible way out of barbarism, or state capitalism, and could support state socialism. We know that community responses were central to tackling the <a href="https://www.ghspjournal.org/content/4/4/626?utm_source=TrendMD&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Global_Health%253A_Science_and_Practice_TrendMD_1">West African Ebola outbreak</a>. And we already see the roots of this future today in the groups organising <a href="https://covidmutualaid.org">care packages and community support</a>. We can see this as a failure of state responses. Or we can see it as a pragmatic, compassionate societal response to an unfolding crisis.</p>
<h2>Hope and fear</h2>
<p>These visions are extreme scenarios, caricatures, and likely to bleed into one another. My fear is the descent from state capitalism into barbarism. My hope is a blend of state socialism and mutual aid: a strong, democratic state that mobilises resources to build a stronger health system, prioritises protecting the vulnerable from the whims of the market and responds to and enables citizens to form mutual aid groups rather than working meaningless jobs.</p>
<p>What hopefully is clear is that all these scenarios leave some grounds for fear, but also some for hope. COVID-19 is highlighting serious deficiencies in our existing system. An effective response to this is likely to require radical social change. I have argued it requires a drastic move away from markets and the use of profits as the primary way of organising an economy. The upside of this is the possibility that we build a more humane system that leaves us more resilient in the face of future pandemics and other impending crises like climate change.</p>
<p>Social change can come from many places and with many influences. A key task for us all is demanding that emerging social forms come from an ethic that values care, life, and democracy. The central political task in this time of crisis is living and (virtually) organising around those values.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-model-a-pandemic-134187?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">How to model a pandemic</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-the-world-a-history-of-how-a-silent-cosmos-led-humans-to-fear-the-worst-120193?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">The end of the world: a history of how a silent cosmos led humans to fear the worst</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/for-a-sustainable-future-we-need-to-reconnect-with-what-were-eating-and-each-other-123490?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">For a sustainable future, we need to reconnect with what we’re eating – and each other</a></em></p></li>
</ul>
<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Mair receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>
We could use this crisis to rebuild, produce something better and more humane. But we may slide into something worse.
Simon Mair, Research Fellow in Ecological Economics, Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, University of Surrey
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/130335
2020-01-23T13:55:33Z
2020-01-23T13:55:33Z
Sci-fi author William Gibson: how ‘future fatigue’ is putting people off the 22nd century
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311378/original/file-20200122-117958-1a7txos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/on-spaceship-astronaut-sitting-alongside-extraterrestrial-754571701">Shutterstock/HQuality</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The future isn’t what it used to be, at least according to the Canadian science fiction novelist <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-william-gibson-novel-revives-his-1980s-cyberpunk-vision-34726">William Gibson</a>. In a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000dj9g">interview with the BBC</a>, Gibson said people seemed to be losing interest in the future. “All through the 20th century we constantly saw the 21st century invoked,” he said. “How often do you hear anyone invoke the 22nd century? Even saying it is unfamiliar to us. We’ve come to not have a future”. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311568/original/file-20200123-162185-ot3393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311568/original/file-20200123-162185-ot3393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311568/original/file-20200123-162185-ot3393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311568/original/file-20200123-162185-ot3393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311568/original/file-20200123-162185-ot3393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311568/original/file-20200123-162185-ot3393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311568/original/file-20200123-162185-ot3393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Portrait of William Gibson taken on his 60th birthday on March 17, 2008.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:William_Gibson_60th_birthday_portrait.jpg">GonzoBonzo/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Gibson thinks that during his lifetime the future “has been a cult, if not a religion”. His whole generation was seized by “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sierk_Ybema/publication/235282689_Managerial_postalgia_Projecting_a_golden_future/links/00463534d37b94df55000000.pdf">postalgia</a>”. This is a tendency to dwell on romantic, idealised visions of the future. Rather than imagining the past as an ideal time (as nostalgics do), postalgics think the future will be perfect. For example, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0170840613502768">a study</a> of young consultants found many suffered from postalgia. They imagined their life would be perfect once they were promoted to partner.</p>
<p>“The Future, capital-F, be it crystalline city on the hill or radioactive post-nuclear wasteland, is gone”, Gibson said in <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/310416/distrust-that-particular-flavor-by-william-gibson/">2012</a>. “Ahead of us, there is merely … more stuff … events”. The upshot is a peculiarly postmodern malaise. Gibson calls it “future fatigue”. This is a condition where we have grown weary of an obsession with romantic and dystopian visions of the future. Instead, our focus is on now.</p>
<p>Gibson’s diagnosis is supported by international attitude surveys. <a href="http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/survey-finds-majority-of-americans-dont-think-about-the-future/">One found</a> that most Americans rarely think about the future and only a few think about the distant future. When they are forced to think about it, they don’t like what they see. Another poll by the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/about/">Pew Research Centre</a> found that <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/03/21/public-sees-an-america-in-decline-on-many-fronts/">44% of Americans</a> were pessimistic about what lies ahead.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311381/original/file-20200122-117911-1rusnc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311381/original/file-20200122-117911-1rusnc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311381/original/file-20200122-117911-1rusnc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311381/original/file-20200122-117911-1rusnc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311381/original/file-20200122-117911-1rusnc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311381/original/file-20200122-117911-1rusnc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311381/original/file-20200122-117911-1rusnc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An imagined city of the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/city-future-383797246">Shutterstock/JuanManuelRodriguez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But pessimism about the future isn’t just limited to the US. One <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/these-are-the-places-where-people-are-most-optimistic-for-their-childrens-future/">international poll</a> of over 400,000 people from 26 countries found that people in developed countries tended to think that the lives of today’s children will be worse than their own. And a 2015 international survey <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/lifestyle/articles-reports/2016/01/05/chinese-people-are-most-optimistic-world">by YouGov</a> found that people in developed countries were particularly pessimistic. For instance, only 4% of people in Britain thought things were improving. This contrasted with 41% of Chinese people who thought things were getting better.</p>
<h2>Rational or irrational pessimism?</h2>
<p>So why has the world seemingly given up on the future? One explanation might be that deep pessimism is the only <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/global-warming-2768">rational response</a> to the catastrophic consequences of global warming, <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2756187?guestAccessKey=c1202c42-e6b9-4c99-a936-0976a270551f&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=112619">declining life expectancy</a> and an increasing number of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/were-underestimating-the-risk-of-human-extinction/253821/">poorly understood existential risks</a>. </p>
<p>But other <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/wrong-about-the-world">research suggests</a> that this widespread pessimism as irrational. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/14/enlightenment-now-steven-pinker-review">People</a> who support this view, point out that on many measures the world is actually improving. And an <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-perceptions-development-progress-perils-perceptions-research">Ipsos poll</a> found that people who are more informed tend to be less pessimistic about the future. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-the-world-a-history-of-how-a-silent-cosmos-led-humans-to-fear-the-worst-120193">The end of the world: a history of how a silent cosmos led humans to fear the worst</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Although there may be some objective reasons to be pessimistic, it is likely that other factors may explain future fatigue. Researchers who have studied forecasting say there are <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/227815/superforecasting-by-philip-e-tetlock-and-dan-gardner/">good reasons</a> why we might avoid making predictions about the distant future.</p>
<h2>Distant forecasts</h2>
<p>For one, forecasting is always a highly uncertain activity. The longer the time frame one is making predictions about and the more complicated the prediction, the more room there is for error. This means that while it might be rational to make a projection about something simple in the near future, it is probably pointless to make projections about something complex in the very distant future. </p>
<p>Economists have known for many years that people tend to <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsessionid=764E9E5D815278EB92E820C6EEA16B9E?doi=10.1.1.197.5565&rep=rep1&type=pdf">discount the future</a>. That means we put a greater value on something which we can get immediately than something we have to wait for. More attention is paid to pressing short-term needs while longer-term investments go unheeded. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zSWdZVtXT7E?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Psychologists <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/755b/94b766dee3a34536f6b481a60f0d9f68aa0c.pdf">have also found</a> that futures that are close at hand seem concrete and detailed while those that are further away seem abstract and stylised. Near futures were more likely to be based on personal experience, while the distance future was shaped by ideologies and theories. </p>
<p>When a future seems to be closer and more concrete, people tend to think it is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2008.02250.x">more likely to occur</a>. And studies have shown that near and concrete futures are also more likely to <a href="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/handle/123456789/10533/mccreaetal2008_PsycSci.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">spark us into action</a>. So the preference for concrete, close-at-hand futures mean people tend to put off thinking about more abstract and distant possibilities.</p>
<p>The human aversion to thinking about the future is partially hardwired. But there are also particular social conditions that make us more likely to give up on the future. <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/668646">Sociologists have argued</a> that for people living in fairly stable societies, it is possible to generate stories about what the future might be like. But in moments of profound social dislocation and upheaval, these stories stop making sense and we lose a sense of the future and how to prepare for it.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311383/original/file-20200122-117958-vrgn16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311383/original/file-20200122-117958-vrgn16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311383/original/file-20200122-117958-vrgn16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311383/original/file-20200122-117958-vrgn16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311383/original/file-20200122-117958-vrgn16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311383/original/file-20200122-117958-vrgn16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311383/original/file-20200122-117958-vrgn16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plenty Coups portrait by Edward Curtis dated 1908.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plenty_Coups#/media/File:Plenty_Coups_Edward_Curtis_Portrait_(c1908).jpg">Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is what happened in many native American communities <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2007/04/26/a-different-kind-of-courage/">during colonialism</a>. This is how Plenty Coups, the leader of the Crow people, described it: “When the buffalo went away the hearts of my people fell to the ground, and they could not lift them up again. After this nothing happened.”</p>
<p>But instead of being thrown into a sense of despair by the future, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/310416/distrust-that-particular-flavor-by-william-gibson/">Gibson thinks</a> we should be a little more optimistic. “This new found state of No Future is, in my opinion, a very good thing … It indicates a kind of maturity, an understanding that every future is someone else’s past, every present is someone else’s future”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130335/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andre Spicer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Some people are growing weary with romantic and dystopian visions of the future. Instead, our focus is on now.
Andre Spicer, Professor of Organisational Behaviour, Cass Business School, City, University of London
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/125897
2020-01-09T15:27:17Z
2020-01-09T15:27:17Z
The fourth industrial revolution could lead to a dark future
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308100/original/file-20191220-11904-tcvsjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/2zZp12ChxhU">Alex Wong/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cast your mind back a decade or so and consider how the future looked then. A public horizon of Obama-imbued “yes we can” and a high tide of hope and tolerance expressed in the London Olympics provides one narrative theme; underlying austerity-induced pressure another. Neither speaks directly to our current world of divisive partisan politics, toxic social media use, competing facts and readily believed fictions.</p>
<p>This should be instructive. The future is made, not discovered, and yet we are constantly confounded by the future as it becomes the present. What we believe, say, do, organise and vote for matter, but the world they matter to constantly eludes our grasp. We often stumble into futures we would rather avoid. Our ecological and climatological future represents one such horizon and whether and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03085147.2019.1620027">how we will work</a>, another.</p>
<p>Organisations are also constantly trying to own the future by mapping out what it will mean for us. The “<a href="https://www.weforum.org/videos/the-fourth-industrial-revolution">fourth industrial revolution</a>” is the latest version of this. It is commonly defined as a combination of new technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, natural language coding, robotics, sensors, cloud computing, nano-technology, 3D printing and the internet of things. According to proponents of the fourth industrial revolution, these technologies are <a href="https://www.weforum.org/focus/fourth-industrial-revolution">set to transform</a> the societies we live and the economies we work in. And apparently, this is likely to be <a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/deep-shift-technology-tipping-points-and-societal-impact">well underway</a> by 2030. </p>
<p>It’s important to grasp, though, that the fourth industrial revolution is just a concept, an attempt to capture the meaning and significance of what seems to be occurring. The idea incites anxiety-inducing headlines regarding threats to employment and a general theme of positivity regarding the benefits of technology.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308099/original/file-20191220-11924-j9qprd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308099/original/file-20191220-11924-j9qprd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308099/original/file-20191220-11924-j9qprd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308099/original/file-20191220-11924-j9qprd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308099/original/file-20191220-11924-j9qprd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308099/original/file-20191220-11924-j9qprd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308099/original/file-20191220-11924-j9qprd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How many jobs will be affected?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/2zZp12ChxhU">Kate.sade/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A shiny future</h2>
<p>The main proponents of the idea of a fourth industrial revolution are think tanks and consultancies working with modellers, economists and tech-experts (and of course technology companies themselves). This work provides the themes, insights and much of the analysis of data that informs current government policy in the form of industrial strategy. </p>
<p>At the heart of this is the World Economic Forum’s work, spearheaded by its Executive Chairman <a href="https://www.weforum.org/about/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab">Klaus Schwab</a>, and that of the <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/technology-jobs-and-the-future-of-work">McKinsey Global Institute</a>. The focus of both is weighted towards expressing the benefits of imminent transformations if we invest quickly and invest heavily. </p>
<p>For example, imagine a world where your toilet bowl tells your fridge that your cholesterol is high. Your fridge, in turn, both adjusts your order for dairy products that week (delivered by automated vehicle or drone from a grocery warehouse) and sends an alert to the healthcare AI whose database monitors your cardiovascular system. This AI, in turn, liaises with your home hub chatbot facility (which rebukes you and suggests you cut down on fats and make more use of your home gym subscription) and, if deemed necessary, sets up a home visit or virtual reality appointment with your local nurse or doctor.</p>
<p>According to the fourth industrial revolution literature, this, like many other possibilities, is science fiction on the cusp of being science fact. It is a commercialised future, a cradle to grave system. A system that, apparently, may help us survive our profligate past and present since the fourth industrial revolution also promises a <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/can-technology-save-life-on-earth">sustainable future</a>, where a connected set of technologies creates the possibility of controlled energy and resource use, minimal waste creation and maximal recycling. </p>
<p>But these think tanks and consultancies are hardly going to be held directly responsible for the future they help to produce. They are not sinister organisations, but nor are they neutral. The “fourth industrial revolution” is not simply an opportunity. It matters what kind of opportunity it is for whom, and under what terms. And this is discussed much more rarely.</p>
<h2>A future for whom?</h2>
<p>The emphasis on benefits and the focus on the need for investment subtly distracts from the core issue of who will own the basic infrastructure of our futures. Large corporations aim to control intellectual property for technologies that will influence every aspect of life.</p>
<p>At the same time, those writing about the fourth industrial revolution recognise that there might be what they call “<a href="http://reports.weforum.org/future-of-jobs-2016/">technological unemployment</a>”. Current claims regarding the likely rate of job displacement are mixed. Some <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516302244?via%3Dihub">research</a> claim between 30% and 50% of current forms of employment could disappear. <a href="https://pmb.cereq.fr/doc_num.php?explnum_id=4268">Some</a> suggests around 10% is more likely.</p>
<p>But the implicit message conveyed by corporations and consultancies, despite the fact that this will affect most sectors of society, is that “the future is coming and you’d better get used to it”. And government messaging and policy has tended to absorb this point of view. For government, the opportunities have been translated into a language of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/made-smarter-review">competitive threats</a>: “If we do not do these things, others will.” This subtly focuses attention on inevitable economic consequences without providing scope to consider the broader social ramifications that might need to be managed. </p>
<p>In the UK, for example, there is, as yet, no broad government initiative for public education, consultation and deliberation regarding a subject that may involve profound changes to our societies. Only the House of Lords <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/ai-committee/news-parliament-2017/public-engagement-artificial-intelligence/">Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence</a> has flagged this. The focus otherwise has been on “<a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2018/mark-carney-whitaker-lecture">employability</a>”. And the main emphasis has tended to be on individual responsibility. This assumes there will be jobs we can do if we retrain, enhance our human capital, compete with robot capital, and get used to collaborating with technologies. </p>
<p>And yet fourth industrial revolution technologies could put the basic functional relations of a capitalist economy at risk. Waged labour is what allows consumption, which in turn becomes profit for companies, which in turn maintains companies, wage labour, and the capacity to contribute taxes. If adoption of new technologies is rapid and pervasive, then the displacement of human workers may overwhelm the capacity of economies to provide alternative forms of work.</p>
<p>This is one extreme possibility, but it is one that current government policy is doing little to confront. At the moment, in the UK, only <a href="https://www.tuc.org.uk/research-analysis/reports/future-works-working-people">trade unions</a> and some fringes of the Labour Party are thinking about the scope inherent in new technology for different kinds of societies that might liberate us from work. This must change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Morgan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Scores of jobs could be affected by the fourth industrial revolution – and not enough is being done to guard against this.
Jamie Morgan, Professor of Economics, Leeds Beckett University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/128499
2020-01-09T13:32:32Z
2020-01-09T13:32:32Z
Children of color already make up the majority of kids in many US states
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308440/original/file-20200103-11914-1oxuiw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. white majority is shrinking. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/group-children-field-trips-611167166">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Demographers project that whites will become a minority in the U.S. in around 2045, <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2018/cb18-41-population-projections.html">dropping below 50% of the population</a>. </p>
<p>That’s a quarter-century from now – still a long way away, right?</p>
<p>Not if you focus on children. White children right now are on the eve of becoming a numerical minority.</p>
<p>The U.S. Census Bureau projects that, by the middle of 2020, nonwhites will account for <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2018/cb18-41-population-projections.html">the majority of the nation’s 74 million children</a>. </p>
<h2>Children in 2018</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-white-majority-will-soon-disappear-forever-115894">The share of the U.S. non-Hispanic white population</a> has fallen since the mid-20th century.</p>
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<p>Between 2010 and 2018, the number of white children fell by 2.8 million, or 7.1%. In contrast, nonwhite children grew by 6.1%. </p>
<p>In 2018, the last year for which data are currently available, the proportion of people in the U.S. under 18 years of age was <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t">just barely more white than nonwhite</a>.</p>
<p>However, children under 11 were more nonwhite than white.</p>
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<p><a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t">In almost one-third of U.S. states,</a> nonwhite children outnumber all white children under 18 in 14 states – including Nevada, Hawaii, Georgia and Maryland – plus the District of Columbia.</p>
<p>Nonwhite children currently outnumber white children ages 0 to 4 in these 15 states and in Louisiana. In the next few years, the same will be true in North Carolina, Illinois and Virginia, followed a little later by Connecticut and Oklahoma.</p>
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<p>In the coming decades, the percentage of all white children will drop – from 49.8% in 2020 to 36.4% in 2060. </p>
<h2>A growing trend</h2>
<p>Why will white children become the numerical minority? </p>
<p>We draw on the insights of <a href="https://findscholars.unh.edu/display/publication150904">demographer Kenneth Johnson and his colleagues</a> to understand this trend.</p>
<p>First, the declining number of white children reflects the significant aging of the white population. </p>
<p>Whites in the U.S. have a median age of 43.6, much higher than those of all other racial or ethnic groups. Latinos, in particular, are much younger, with a median age of 29.5. </p>
<p>Slightly more than one-fifth of whites are age 65 and older, while elders account for only about one-tenth of nonwhites. Indeed, today in the U.S. there are more white elders than white children. </p>
<p>The older age of whites is mainly due to <a href="https://apl.wisc.edu/briefs_resources/pdf/natural-decrease-18.pdf">fewer white births than white deaths</a>.
Between July 2017 and July 2018, there were <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t">0.88 white births in the U.S. for every 1 white death</a>. In the case of Latinos, the ratio was 5 births for every 1 death.</p>
<p>Whites also have lower fertility rates than most other racial and ethnic groups. </p>
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<p>Even if white women increased their fertility levels, their actual numbers of births would not go up that much, because there is a shrinking number of white women of childbearing age. </p>
<p>Only 41% of white women aged 15 and older are in the childbearing ages of 15 to 44, when most births occur, compared to 57% of nonwhite women. </p>
<h2>What the future holds</h2>
<p>In the coming decades, people of color will have an increasing presence in all U.S. institutions, in higher education, the workforce and the electorate. </p>
<p>Americans are already seeing the consequences of these <a href="https://usa.ipums.org/usa/">demographic shifts in higher education</a>. Between 2009 and 2017, the number of white undergraduate students in the U.S. dropped by 1.7 million, while the number of Latino undergraduates rose by 1.1 million. </p>
<p>In addition, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/labor-force-projections-to-2024.htm">U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projections</a> show that, between 2014 and 2024, the white share of the civilian labor force is declining, while the share of nonwhites is estimated to rise.</p>
<p>Furthermore, people of color will increasingly be part of the voter rolls and slates of political office seekers in the coming decades. </p>
<p>Despite these expected changes, one thing is certain. The white population is not going to disappear. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_17_5YR_B03002&prodType=table%20in%202060">whites will still be the largest racial or ethnic group</a>, accounting for 44.3% of the nation’s population in 2060 and outnumbering Latinos, the second largest group, by 67.9 million.</p>
<p>The reality is that whites will not dominate demographically as they have throughout most of U.S. history, when they accounted for as much as 90% of the country’s population. Roughly speaking, the share of the U.S. white population in 2060 will be the same as it is now in Las Vegas, about 44%.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128499/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
By 2050, the majority of Americans will not be white. That future is already on its way here – just look at the demographics of kids ages 10 and under.
Rogelio Sáenz, Professor of Demography, The University of Texas at San Antonio
Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/126908
2020-01-02T13:42:04Z
2020-01-02T13:42:04Z
3 big ways that the US will change over the next decade
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302271/original/file-20191118-66921-1lzjtc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. will undergo some significant shifts in the next decade.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/american-flags-patriots-america-fans-concert-335159885?src=6a1e5dc6-a1a3-4075-b286-9b8e8dd44977-1-9">DenisProduction.com/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. has just entered the new decade of the 2020s.</p>
<p>What does our country look like today, and what will it look like 10 years from now, on Jan. 1, 2030? Which demographic groups in the U.S. will grow the most, and which groups will not grow as much, or maybe even decline in the next 10 years? </p>
<p>I <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BWeHM5kAAAAJ&hl=en">am a demographer</a> and I have examined population data from the U.S. Census Bureau and from the Population Division of the United Nations. </p>
<p>Projections show that whites will decline; the number of old people will increase; and racial minorities, mainly Hispanics, will grow the most, making them the main engine of demographic change in the U.S. for the next 10 years and beyond. </p>
<h2>1. There will be more of us</h2>
<p><a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf">The U.S. population today</a>, at the start of 2020, numbers just over 331 million people. </p>
<p>The U.S. is the third largest country in the world, outnumbered only by the two demographic billionaires, China and India, at just over 1.4 billion and just under 1.4 billion, respectively. </p>
<p>Ten years from now, the U.S. population will have almost 350 million people. China and India will still be bigger, but India with 1.5 billion people will now be larger than China, with 1.46 billion.</p>
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<h2>2. The population will get older.</h2>
<p>The U.S. is getting older and it’s <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf">going to keep getting older</a>.</p>
<p>Today, there are over 74.1 million people under age 18 in the U.S. There are 56.4 million people age 65 and older. </p>
<p>Ten years from now, there will almost be as many old folks as there are young ones. The numbers of young people will have grown just a little to 76.3 million, but the numbers of old people will have increased a lot – to 74.1 million. A lot of these new elderly will be baby boomers. </p>
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<p>For example, take the really old folks – people over the age of 100. How many centenarians are in the U.S. population today and how many are there likely to be 10 years from now? </p>
<p><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030264918">According to demographers at the U.S. Census Bureau</a>, the number of centenarians in the U.S. grew from over 53,000 in 2010 to over 90,000 in 2020. By 2030, there will most likely be over 130,000 centenarians in the U.S.</p>
<p>But this increase of centenarians by 2030 is only a small indication of their growth in later decades. In the year of 2046, the first group of surviving baby boomers will reach 100 years, and that’s when U.S. centenarians will really start to grow. By 2060 there will be over 603,000. That’s a <em>lot</em> of really old people.</p>
<p>I sometimes ask my undergraduate students how many of them have ever actually seen a person 100 years old or older. In my classes of 140 or more students, no more than maybe six raise their hands. Lots more college students will be raising their hands when they are asked that question in 2060.</p>
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<h2>3. Racial proportions will shift.</h2>
<p>In 2020, non-Hispanic white people, hereafter called whites, are still the majority race in the U.S., representing 59.7% of the U.S. population. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-white-majority-will-soon-disappear-forever-115894">In my research with the demographer Rogelio Saenz</a>, we have shown that the white share of the U.S. population has been dropping since 1950 and it will continue to go down.</p>
<p>Today, after whites, the Hispanic population is the next biggest group at 18.7% of the U.S., followed by blacks and Asians.</p>
<p>What will the country <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popproj/2017-summary-tables.html">look like racially in 2030</a>? Whites will have dropped to 55.8% of the population, and Hispanics will have grown to 21.1%. The percentage of black and Asian Americans will also grow significantly.</p>
<p>So between now and 2030, whites as a proportion of the population will get smaller, and the minority race groups will all keep getting bigger. </p>
<p>Eventually, whites will become a minority, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/03/14/the-us-will-become-minority-white-in-2045-census-projects">dropping below 50% of the U.S. population in around the year of 2045</a>. </p>
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<p>However, on the first day of 2020, whites under age 18 were already in the minority. Among all the young people now in the U.S., there are more minority young people than there are white young people.</p>
<p>Among old people age 65 and over, whites are still in the majority. Indeed white old people, compared to minority old people, will continue to be in the majority until some years after 2060.</p>
<p>Hispanics and the other racial minorities will be the country’s main demographic engine of population change in future years; this is the most significant demographic change Americans will see. </p>
<p>I’ve shown above how much older the U.S. population has become and will become in the years ahead. Were it not for the racial minorities countering this aging of the U.S. population, the U.S. by 2030 and later would have become even older than it is today and will be in 2030.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dudley L. Poston Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The number of old people will increase, while the proportion of white Americans will continue to fall.
Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.