tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/italy-elections-2013-4824/articlesItaly elections 2013 – The Conversation2014-01-15T14:30:36Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/220252014-01-15T14:30:36Z2014-01-15T14:30:36ZSilvio Berlusconi is far from finished in Italian politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39126/original/bvq25wdd-1389784327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Still got it?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hytok/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On 18 November 2013, the Italian right-wing leader Silvio Berlusconi dissolved his party, Popolo della Libertà (PDL –- People of Freedom), the founding of which he had announced to his supporters in Milan exactly six years earlier. He also <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24970235">relaunched</a> the party he had first created in 1993: Forza Italia (FI -– Go Italy). Allegedly born from the “fusion” of FI with the post-fascist Alleanza Nazionale (AN – National Alliance), throughout its short existence the PDL turned out to be extremely divided, lacking purpose and a clear sense of identity.</p>
<p>Following the loss of roughly half of the PDL’s votes in the <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013-italian-elections/">2013 general election</a> (six million in total), and after its negative experience in government between 2008 and 2011 (characterised by the worsening of every national economic indicator), Berlusconi came to the conclusion that the PDL brand had become toxic. The decision to bring the experiment of the PDL to an end was also dictated by Berlusconi’s desire to take full control of the party he was leading once again.</p>
<p>In fact, as the preceding months had demonstrated, Berlusconi was no longer the “owner” of the PDL, and he could no longer be sure that it would consistently pursue the line he was dictating to it. Making it crystal clear that he wished to “resurrect” the FI of 1993 and recapture the “spirit” of those years, in his speech in November 2013 Berlusconi repeated word for word many of the promises and claims that he had made <a href="http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/pdl-forza-italia-centrodestra/rinasce-forza-italia-berlusconi-ripete-il-discorso-del-94/146814/145331?ref=search">back in 1993</a> when he launched his political career.</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.termometropolitico.it/grafici-sondaggi">recent polls</a>, the re-established FI attracts roughly the same level of support the party enjoyed in the first election it contested. However, unlike in 1994, Berlusconi’s initiative is very unlikely to turn him into the fulcrum of Italian politics yet again.</p>
<h2>Then and now</h2>
<p>The main reason for this is that in the mid-nineties, FI managed to fill the huge gap that had opened up following the collapse of all governing parties in Italy due to high-profile investigations that had uncovered <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/italian-corruption-scandal-last-supper-at-the-bribery-banquet-the-events-unfolding-over-the-past-year-have-exposed-graft-on-a-scale-and-complexity-that-defies-the-credulity-of-even-the-most-worldweary-italians-they-have-fed-popular-anger-and-revulsion-against-the-countrys-ruling-class-fiona-leney-and-patricia-clough-report-1495471.html">political corruption</a> at the highest levels. Today, there is no such “opening”. The Italian political landscape remains crowded with other large parties which, on the basis of what we know at the moment, have a good chance of doing well at the polls if a general election is held in the near future.</p>
<p>Of these, the most important is the centre-left Partito Democratico (PD -– Democratic Party) which, according to <a href="http://www.termometropolitico.it/grafici-sondaggi">current data</a>, carries more than 30 per cent of the vote (versus FI’s 21 per cent). It has strong coalition potential, since any centre-left electoral alliance would need to gravitate around it. As explained in James Newell and Arianna Giovannini’s <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/12/19/the-election-of-matteo-renzi-as-the-leader-of-the-pd-might-herald-a-new-labour-style-revolution-in-italys-centre-left/">recent article</a>, the mayor of Florence Matteo Renzi recently won the PD’s leadership contest (by a large margin), having argued for years that the party “needed to undergo fundamental renewal based on a generational turnover among its leaders and principal spokespeople”.</p>
<p>Whereas in 1994 Berlusconi could brand himself as a novelty, a savvy entrepreneur “loaned” to politics and ready to do for Italy what he had done for himself, today he would be leading his party into an election as the longest-serving former PM in Italian post-war history, someone who led his first cabinet when François Mitterrand and Boris Yeltsin were still in power. Even turning a blind eye to Berlusconi’s age (which is twice that of Renzi), it has become impossible for the right-wing leader to convincingly argue that he is, in any sense, “new”.</p>
<p>Although he will not be the centre-right candidate for prime minister in a forthcoming election, as he has <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/italy-silvio-berlusconi-faces-twoyear-ban-from-public-office-over-tax-fraud-8891199.html">lost the right to stand</a> for public office for some years as a consequence of his recent conviction for tax evasion, he remains the leader of the largest party on the right. Given the Italian electorate’s widespread disillusionment with their traditional political class, the fact that Berlusconi is now very much a member of it will hardly help his cause or shore him up against competitors.</p>
<p>The major party competing with FI is the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S –- Five Star Movement), Western Europe’s most successful new party, which has managed to grow from 0 to <a href="http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubriche/english/2013/10/25/PD-down-still-top-poll-M5S-overtakes-PdL-second_9517809.html">25 per cent</a> of the national vote in four years. This is thanks to its criticism of the political class, the communication skills of its leader Beppe Grillo, and its ability to effectively integrate the use of new media with face-to-face campaigning. </p>
<p>Although support for the M5S has diminished by a few percentage points since the general election of April 2013, it still matches Berlusconi’s FI. Importantly, it is now the M5S that gives voice to those voters (and there are many) who are disappointed by politicians in general – and many of these voters previously voted for the PDL.</p>
<h2>Back from the dead?</h2>
<p>Speculating about the possible consequences of Berlusconi’s “return” is especially difficult because the current electoral law (passed by a Berlusconi government in 2005) was <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/04/us-italy-law-unconstitutional-idUSBRE9B30YW20131204">declared</a> unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court in December 2013. This makes it unclear under what legislation the next election will be held. If, like the present one, the new law encourages the creation of pre-electoral coalitions, then not much is likely to change just because of FI’s re-establishment.</p>
<p>In that case, Berlusconi would be forced to try and revive a large coalition of the right as the general election approaches, and this will most probably have to include anyone who is willing to oppose the left. In the end, as a member of this right-wing coalition, FI would find itself fighting the election alongside those who have recently broken away from their leader in recent months, as he disbanded the PDL. The real game changer may instead turn out to be Matteo Renzi’s election as the PD’s leader, if he can attract those who have turned to the M5S in recent years, or supported the right. This is not to mention abstainers and the undecided –- the latter <a href="http://www.termometropolitico.it/grafici-sondaggi">constituting</a> two in five voters at present.</p>
<p>Like Berlusconi in 1994, Renzi has portrayed himself as the “enemy” of the traditional political class, and strengthened his credibility by waging war on his own party’s nomenclatura for several years. If he can convince a sufficient number of disillusioned voters to give a “renewed” PD a chance, the centre-left coalition may manage to win outright this time. That would be a turning point in Italian politics –- a clear-cut victory delivering strong majorities in both Houses of Parliament to the centre-left, which has failed to achieve this since Berlusconi launched his political career in 1994.</p>
<p>At this stage, however, this is merely speculation. While some foreign journalists have persistently announced Berlusconi’s political demise -– a sport that caught on shortly after the collapse of his first government in 1994 and continues to prove popular <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-09-18/silvio-berlusconis-political-career-nears-end">to this day</a> –- more sophisticated observers of Italian politics have always been aware of his ability to give voice to an important section of the Italian electorate on crucial issues, such as <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-complicated-tax-system-in-italy-buoys-berlusconi-a-926692.html">taxation</a>.</p>
<p>Having lost many votes, his Senate seat and the chance to hold public office for several years, it is now safe to say that Berlusconi’s star is waning. However, he is far from finished. He has a good understanding of what centre-right voters want, he remains very much in control of the media and financial empire through which he launched his political career twenty years ago, and he seems determined to keep leading the largest political party of the Italian right for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>Given the stamina and determination he has amply demonstrated during the last two decades as a political leader, and despite the many setbacks of recent months, those who write Berlusconi off now as irrelevant and announce the end of his political career do so at their own peril. They are likely to be proven wrong yet again, as they have been many times in the past.</p>
<p><em>This piece originally appeared on the LSE’s <a href="http://bit.ly/1dmZkfx">EUROPP blog</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22025/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniele Albertazzi receives funding from the AHRC, the British Academy, and the Leverhulme Trust.</span></em></p>On 18 November 2013, the Italian right-wing leader Silvio Berlusconi dissolved his party, Popolo della Libertà (PDL –- People of Freedom), the founding of which he had announced to his supporters in Milan…Daniele Albertazzi, Senior Lecturer in European Politics, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/137682013-04-29T01:53:12Z2013-04-29T01:53:12ZHe did it again: how Berlusconi managed to keep power in Italy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/22958/original/nxqwcn3k-1367194906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C40%2C2720%2C1999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Despite not holding an official cabinet position, Silvio Berlusconi will exert a great deal of influence over Italy's newly-formed government.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Pier Paolo Ferreri</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Under the leadership of re-elected president Giorgio Napolitano, a “grand coalition” of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and the centre-right coalition of parties - headed by Silvio Berlusconi - <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22327445">has been sworn in</a> as the new government in Italy. </p>
<p>The new prime minister, Enrico Letta, represents the conservative and Catholic faction of the PD. He is also the nephew of one of the closest Berlusconi allies, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/bridge-builder-enrico-letta-seals-silvio-berlusconi-deal/story-e6frg6so-1226631135214">Gianni Letta</a>. </p>
<p>The new government will include many important politicians in Berlusconi’s coalition, and Berlusconi, although not sitting in cabinet, will have enormous power and influence. </p>
<p>When considering the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/30/us-italy-berlusconi-fall-idUSBRE8AT0NB20121130">trials and the scandals</a> which have plagued Berlusconi in recent years - as well as his enormous responsibilities in pushing the country to the edge of a terrible social, economic, cultural and moral crisis - one might wonder how he managed to retain power once again.</p>
<p>Although in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/berlusconis-rise-and-the-search-for-stable-government-in-italy-12493">recent election</a> he lost millions of votes, there is still approximately a quarter of Italian voters who support him. These are people who are emotionally attached to their leader; people who are still under the strong influence of the TV channels and other media controlled by him; people who despise the political left for ideological reasons; and people who are afraid to lose the (little or large) benefits they gain from a system of widespread corruption and tax evasion. </p>
<p>In a country where power has remained for a long time in the hands of elderly, white, heterosexual, Catholic and conservative men, Berlusconi still represents a relatively accurate reflection of the country’s socio-economic, cultural and generational hegemony. Italy has for instance <a href="http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/news-and-features/market-news/industry-news-2012/challenging-italys-gerontocracy">often been described</a> as a “gerontocracy” (a system of power dominated by elderly people), and it is not by chance that all the three main candidates as Presidents of the Republic (Stefano Rodotà, Franco Marini and Romano Prodi) were born between 1933 and 1939. While none of them were successful, it is no coincidence that it was an even older man, Giorgio Napolitano (born in 1925), who was.</p>
<p>These social, cultural and anthropological characteristics have guaranteed Berlusconi a significant number of votes even in the recent election. Still, his coalition did not win outright, and one could have expected that the two other major political groups, the centre-left coalition and the new populist movement, <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-much-too-young-for-italys-five-star-movement-12491">Five-Star Movement</a> (M5S), would have taken the opportunity to isolate Berlusconi once and for all. How can we then explain their failure to do so?</p>
<p>The centre-left coalition that should have easily won the majority in both chambers made three fundamental mistakes before the election. It supported the technocratic government led by Mario Monti, which <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-21/monti-s-austerity-pushes-italians-toward-parliamentary-upheaval.html">imposed extreme and unfair cuts</a> in the name of the economic austerity imposed by Europe and by the financial markets.</p>
<p>Almost certain of an easy victory against Berlusconi, his political rivals underestimated his resilience. They also underestimated the emerging influence of the M5S, a protest movement led by a former comedian (Beppe Grillo), which managed to attract 25.5% of the total vote for the lower house and 23.8% in the Senate. Having run a very poor election campaign, the centre-left coalition led by Pier Luigi Bersani obtained the majority of seats in the lower house, but failed to do so in the Senate. This coalition itself is profoundly divided, between a more leftist and innovative side, and a more powerful, conservative side. Had they won the election, they could have maintained internal discipline. Not so in the current political chaos.</p>
<p>The M5S, however, obtained an incredible result, when considering that this was the first national election they took part in. However, such success was obtained on the basis of a populist agenda that mixed innovative ideas with demagogic propaganda. Claiming that the distinction between left and right is no longer relevant, and by calling for a revolt against all politicians, they obtained a large number of votes from dissatisfied, enraged and desperate voters on both sides of the political arena. They also insisted that their candidates be selected online by the members of the movement, with little or no attention given to the actual political and professional abilities and experiences of the candidates. As a result, they managed to elect a large number of citizens with very little experience in politics and government and with disparate political ideas, values and convictions. </p>
<p>As such, it was clear that M5S had no interest and ability to assume any government responsibility by seeking an agreement with the centre-left. Such agreement would have alienated many of its voters and forced their elected members to demonstrate actual political unity and leadership. They instead decided to reject any attempt of agreement, and to reinforce and consolidate their stance as the main opposition party.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/22960/original/mdhrcqbj-1367195472.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New Italian prime minister Enrico Letta and re-elected president Giorgio Napolitano have formed a ‘compromise’ government to solve months of political deadlock.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Paolo Giandotti</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The centre-left coalition found itself forced to choose between an agreement with Berlusconi and going back again to an immediate and very risky election. A new election would have almost certainly seen their defeat, or at best would have confirmed the need for a coalition with Berlusconi. Meanwhile, Italy - in need of profound and brave reforms - would have remained in a political deadlock for months if not years to come. </p>
<p>The result of such an intricate political situation was the implosion of the centre-left coalition, the re-election of Napolitano as president (as voted by MPs and Senators of both the PD and Berlusconi’s coalition), and the formation of a new government led by Enrico Letta. He is a younger and more palatable expression of the conservative politicians who control the PD. </p>
<p>The make-up of the new government includes more women, younger politicians, and the first black minister. However, most key ministries are in the hands of Berlusconi’s men and other conservative politicians. It is clear that Berlusconi has not accepted to support such government out of love for the country, and will expect a significant return. This is a government that will be under the constant political blackmail of Berlusconi and his acolytes. </p>
<p>Will such a government be able to bring profound and much-needed changes to Italy to fight widespread corruption, tax evasion and crime, while also proposing innovative economic and social policies? Sadly, the more democratic, modern and open part of Italian society, which always ends up being isolated and squashed between conservatism and populist protest, is not really hopeful.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/13768/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Ricatti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Under the leadership of re-elected president Giorgio Napolitano, a “grand coalition” of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and the centre-right coalition of parties - headed by Silvio Berlusconi - has…Francesco Ricatti, Cassamarca Senior Lecturer, School of Communication, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/124912013-03-13T03:41:48Z2013-03-13T03:41:48ZToo much too young for Italy’s Five-Star Movement?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21013/original/5s5nhtkr-1362553056.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Beppe Grillo could be a victim of his own success.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Massimo Percossi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Paris is worth a mass”, replied my friend, citing Henry IV’s probably apocryphal comment on his conversion to Catholicism in order to break the religious impasse in sixteenth-century France. </p>
<p>She was explaining her decision, despite reservations, to support Beppe Grillo’s Five-Star Movement (M5S) in Italy’s election two weeks ago. The point, she stressed, was that voting for the M5S was worth it in order to mark “a complete break with the mainstream parties”. Sending that message was the important thing.</p>
<p>Almost nine million Italians voted for the Five-Star Movement. More than anyone – pundits, mainstream politicians and probably even Grillo himself – expected. </p>
<p>To put it into context: we still talk about the performance of Silvio Berlusconi’s new party, Forza Italia, in the 1994 general election. Forza Italia got 21% of the vote that time. The M5S took 25.6% in 2013. It is the best new party result in a general election in Western Europe, excluding “repackaged” or merged parties, or the first rounds of democratic elections when all parties are new.</p>
<p>The M5S is now Italy’s largest party in terms of vote share. Only the fact that the two main parties were in centre-left and centre-right alliances prevented it claiming the majority seat bonus (awarded to the largest coalition) in the chamber. </p>
<p>This instead went to the centre-left which, although frittering away a seemingly <a href="http://www.policy-network.net/pno_detail.aspx?ID=4337&title=The-Italian-centre-left-Stalling-in-the-campaign-but-probably-not-in-the-election">unassailable lead during the campaign</a>, still <a href="http://www.policy-network.net/pno_detail.aspx?ID=4349&title=Italy-passes-a-no-confidence-verdict-in-the-centre-left">finished 0.3% ahead of Berlusconi’s centre-right</a>. </p>
<p>But in the senate (which uses a different electoral system), there is a logjam since the centre-left lacks the numbers to govern. So the M5S now finds itself under pressure from many in Italy’s media and elites to strike an accord with the centre-left so a government can be formed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21012/original/wfd7d8xh-1362552532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21012/original/wfd7d8xh-1362552532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21012/original/wfd7d8xh-1362552532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21012/original/wfd7d8xh-1362552532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21012/original/wfd7d8xh-1362552532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21012/original/wfd7d8xh-1362552532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21012/original/wfd7d8xh-1362552532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21012/original/wfd7d8xh-1362552532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Party vote shares in the Chamber of Deputies. Parties in a coalition are the same colour. Data based on that provided by the Ministero dell’Interno. It does not include the ‘Italians abroad’ and Valle D’Aosta constituencies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Duncan McDonnell</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For this, and many other reasons, the M5S is between a rock and a hard place. It is a victim, to some extent, of its own success. </p>
<p>First, it suddenly has to contend with 163 new MPs, not one of whom has served even a day on a town council. That’s a big ask of a movement which was only founded in late 2009 and <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/staggers/2013/02/no-laughing-matter">eschews the normal structures of political parties</a>. Imposing discipline both inside and outside parliament will be extremely difficult. </p>
<p>To take just one example: the M5S prohibits its representatives from speaking, unauthorised, to the media. Good luck with that when the new faces find themselves running a gauntlet of tempting microphones and cameras every day in Rome.</p>
<p>Second, the movement in its parliamentary votes will have to balance the diversity of ideologies among both its new representatives and its supporters. If you read <a href="http://www.beppegrillo.it/iniziative/movimentocinquestelle/Programma-Movimento-5-Stelle.pdf">the M5S programme</a> and listen to Grillo’s speeches, you find something for everyone – from environmental protection, to universal unemployment benefit, to the ending of monopolies, to reform of the political system and the state. The Movement claims to be “beyond left and right”, but there are clear differences in this respect among its activists and voters.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.demos.co.uk/files/Beppe_Grillo_and_the_M5S_-_Demos_web_version.pdf?1360766725">a survey</a> conducted with the think-tank Demos of almost 2000 Grillo and M5S Facebook fans last August, we asked respondents to position themselves on a political spectrum ranging from 1 to 10, with 1 being furthest left and 10 furthest right. </p>
<p>The average score for respondents was 3.88, indicating they are generally left of centre. However, it is also clear both from our study and <a href="http://www.ipsos.it/pdf/Voto_2013_Analisi_ipsos.pdf">post-election analyses</a> that the M5S is fishing among discontented citizens of right, left and centre. These range from former voters of the northern regionalist Lega Nord to ex-Berlusconi supporters in the South to left-wingers in the “red zones” of central Italy and elsewhere. Convincing all these to come on board in a campaign is one thing. Keeping them there while voting in parliament on the bread-and-butter issues that divide right and left is quite another.</p>
<p>All the above is exacerbated by the calls now for the M5S to support a centre-left administration in order to prevent the country undergoing a second general election or the installation of another technocratic executive (a solution which would extend <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/04/16/italy-monti-democrac/">the suspension of party government in place since November 2011</a>). </p>
<p>However, this would be a bitter and damaging pill to swallow for a movement, whose principal unifying message to supporters and voters - like my friend - is its rejection of the mainstream political class in its entirety. </p>
<p>The irony of course is that, had the M5S not taken quite so many votes from those mainstream parties, it would now be focused solely on settling into a parliamentary opposition role and acclimatizing to institutional life. Instead, it is having to justify its refusal to help provide the country with a governing majority. Sudden and enormous success brings sudden and enormous challenges.</p>
<p>Or, to put it another way: sometimes, a little bit less really can be more.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12491/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duncan McDonnell does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.</span></em></p>“Paris is worth a mass”, replied my friend, citing Henry IV’s probably apocryphal comment on his conversion to Catholicism in order to break the religious impasse in sixteenth-century France. She was explaining…Duncan McDonnell, Marie Curie Fellow, European University InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/124642013-02-27T23:46:22Z2013-02-27T23:46:22ZItaly’s post-election nightmare: stalemate sinks growth hopes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20730/original/t7t6mrvr-1362006834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Leader of the Five Star movement, Beppe Grillo, rode a wave of unexpected popularity to obtain one quarter of the votes in Italy's House of Representatives.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The economic troubles of Italy are largely homegrown. Some might argue that they have been made worse by the fiscal austerity measures adopted under pressure from the European Union. But the truth is that, Europe or not, three decades of fiscal profligacy eventually had to come to an end. The landing could not possibly be soft.</p>
<p>If problems are homegrown, then their solution should also be homegrown. In this regard, the elections held last week-end could have been a good starting point: new parliament, new government, and a new push towards long-term, pro-growth reforms.</p>
<p>But this does not seem to have been the case. First of all, throughout the campaign, the issue of long-term growth has been overshadowed by the debate on fiscal austerity. Parties have talked a lot about cutting taxes and balancing the budget, but they have not said much about what should be done to re-launch growth after twenty years of stagnation.</p>
<p>Second, the polls yielded a highly fragmented parliament which is unlikely to generate the type of solid and cohesive government required to undertake long-term economic reforms.</p>
<p>No party or coalition has a majority in both Houses (House of Representatives and Senate). In the House of Representatives, the centre-left coalition led by the Democratic Party (PD) won by a very small margin over the centre-right coalition led by the People of Freedom Party (PDL). Because of the Italian electoral system, even such a small margin translates into a significant majority in the number of elected representatives.</p>
<p>In the Senate, the situation is much more complicated. The total number of senators is 315: the PD and its allied gained 119 seats, the PDL and its allied 117 seats, the Five Star movement 54 seats, and Civic Choice 18 seats. Even if seven seats still remain to be assigned, it is already clear that none of the parties/coalitions can reach the majority quorum of 158.</p>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>There are two main winners in this election. One is certainly the new <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/25/beppe-grillo-italy-election-success">Five Star movement</a>, led by former comedian Beppe Grillo. Five Star is an anti-politics movement whose campaign was based on a rather populist platform.</p>
<p>Five Star gathered the “vote of protest” of most Italian citizens dissatisfied with the political class. It achieved a remarkable 25% of votes in the House of Representatives (a bit less in the Senate), which makes it the largest single party in the legislature.</p>
<p>The second winner is Silvio Berlusconi, the leader of PDL. Thrown out of office 15 months ago and currently on trial for various charges, including a sex scandal, Berlusconi led his centre-right coalition to an amazing climb back.</p>
<p>No more than two months ago, PDL lagged 20 percentage points behind the PD in the opinion polls. The electoral results today say that the PD-led coalition and the PDL-led coalition are both around 30%, separated by a mere 0.5% in the House of Representatives (1% in the Senate).</p>
<p>The main loser is instead PD, which lost the large advantage it had over both PDL and Five Stars in just a couple of months. For one thing, the leadership of PD was unable to communicate effectively with a large segment of moderate electorate. For another, PD remained trapped between the strong anti-taxation stance taken by Berlusconi and the general sentiment of distrust towards politics, which drove the success of Five Star.</p>
<p>The second loser is outgoing Prime Minister Mario Monti. His <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/tag/mario-monti/">Civic Choice</a> movement, allied with a couple of small centrist parties, did not go beyond 10% of votes in both Houses, which makes it almost irrelevant in the coalition game that will be played by PD, PDL, and Five Stars.</p>
<p>Monti was appointed Prime Minister in November 2011, when it became evident that Berlusconi’s government was unable to respond to the debt crisis. He headed a technical government that undertook tough measures of fiscal austerity.</p>
<p>While at that time there was no alternative to fiscal austerity, Monti should have also started an ambitious plan of reforms. Unfortunately, this did not happen and the austerity measures significantly worsened the recession.</p>
<p>During the electoral campaign, Monti somewhat loosened his fiscal stance, promising to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/monti-pledges-raft-of-tax-cuts-after-a-year-of-increasing-levies.html">lower certain taxes</a> and to start reforms, but evidently Italian voters were not inclined to give him a second chance.</p>
<p>Someone might read Monti’s poor showing as a vote against the European Union. The Five Star movement, which loudly demands a renegotiation of Italy’s agreements with Europe, might have also benefited from a growing anti-European sentiment within the electorate.</p>
<p>However, more than a rejection of the European Union, the vote might signal that citizens have understood what parties still fail to grasp: it is the lack of economic growth that makes fiscal austerity necessary. Re-start growth, and draconian fiscal measures will no longer be needed.</p>
<h2>Playing the coalition game</h2>
<p>Because of its majority in the House of Representatives, the PD is still the obvious candidate to form a government. Numbers are such that some sort of agreement with either PDL or Five Stars will be needed in the Senate.</p>
<p>The leader of PD, Pier Luigi Bersani, is probably orientated towards striking a deal with Five Star. The most likely scenario is one where PD forms a minority government (together with the other small parties in the centre-left coalition) and Five Star provides some conditional external support.</p>
<p>It is hard to say what kind of economic policy a government like this would be able to implement.</p>
<p>PD’s policy platform includes a set of tax cuts for lower-income households and an increase of deductions on taxes on reinvested earnings. To offset the decrease in tax revenues, PD proposes to cut transfers and government consumption and to raise extra-revenues from the sale of public assets and the fight against tax evasion.</p>
<p>In principle, these are all measures that Five Star might be willing to support. The central question is what Five Star will ask in return. The answer here is particularly difficult because the movement avoided any debate with other parties/coalitions during this campaign, and its published policy document does not provide much detail on economic policy.</p>
<p>Making the public administration more transparent and less expensive is a recurrent theme in the rhetoric of Five Star, and it is something the PD should be prepared to do. But some of the other ideas of Five Star in the area of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/opinion/italy-votes-on-its-future.html?_r=0">labour market reforms</a> or <a href="http://www.beppegrillo.it/en/2012/07/pygmies_of_europe.html">European integration</a> might be difficult for the PD to digest.</p>
<p>Moreover, it is unclear to what extent a protest and anti-politics movement like Five Star is willing to support a PD-led government. In fact, Five Star has probably more to gain by staying in opposition, at least for now.</p>
<p>The alternative for PD is an alliance with the centre-right. Paradoxically, some common ground for this coalition could be found in the policy programme of PDL, which includes a large fiscal stimulus package with comprehensive tax cuts, an increase in public investment, a reorganisation of tax expenditures, stronger action against tax evasion and capital flights, and an aggressive public assets sale plan.</p>
<p>In a post-election interview, Berlusconi indeed suggested that PDL might be willing to cooperate with PD to form a large coalition government. But the two parties have been engaged in fierce competition for 20 years, their leaders have attacked each other violently, often on personal grounds. The wounds caused by this conflict are too fresh and too large to be quickly healed. Hence, not surprisingly, Bersani promptly rejected Berlusconi’s offer.</p>
<p>If the attempt of the PD to form a government were to fail, then there would be only one possible way forward: new elections. In itself, the risk of having to put the country through another long campaign, in these economic conditions, should be a strong-enough incentive for parties to find an agreement.</p>
<p>But alas, the present economic and political situation of Italy suggests that, in the past, the good of the country got often lost in the subtleties of the political game. Can we expect anything different this time?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise continuous linear model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p>The economic troubles of Italy are largely homegrown. Some might argue that they have been made worse by the fiscal austerity measures adopted under pressure from the European Union. But the truth is that…Fabrizio Carmignani, Associate Professor, Griffith Business School , Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/124932013-02-27T05:49:49Z2013-02-27T05:49:49ZBerlusconi’s rise and the search for stable government in Italy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20679/original/yywr9mgn-1361921149.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former Italian Prime Minister and leader of the People of Freedom party Silvio Berlusconi’s comeback has left Italy with a hung parliament.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mike Palazzotto/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A Berlusconi led right-wing coalition has delivered a shock in the <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/02/26/silvio-berlusconi-poised-for-power-broker-role-as-early-election-results-in-italy-point-to-complete-gridlock/">Italian elections</a>, taking 30% of the vote and winning the senate in the key regions of Lombardy, Sicily and Veneto. Berlusconi was trailing badly in <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/world/silvio-berlusconi-trailing-pier-luigi-bersani-as-italians-head-to-the-polls/story-fnd12peo-1226584406492">polls</a> when the campaign began and few thought he could rein in the centre-left. The result has left Italy with a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9894246/Delicate-situation-for-Italy-after-stalemate-election.html">hung parliament</a>.</p>
<p>The biggest surprise in the results, however, was Beppe Grillo’s 5 Star Movement (M5S), which gained momentum in the final weeks of campaigning and polled well above most expectations, taking <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/italy-election-deadlock-comedian-beppe-1732547">25% of the vote</a>. It stands today as Italy’s single largest party, although took less seats than the centre-left or right due to its refusal to enter into any coalitions.</p>
<p>The centre-left coalition led by Pierluigi Bersani’s Democratic Party (PD) <a href="http://www.lagazzettadelmezzogiorno.it/notizia.php?IDNotizia=597252&IDCategoria=2694">won the lower house</a> by a mere 124,407 votes and under Italian electoral law is awarded 55% of the seats. It will be up to them to try to find coalition partners in the senate in order to form government.</p>
<p>This may prove impossible. The logical partnership, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324338604578324220009010006.html?mod=googlenews_wsj">much discussed</a> in the lead up to the election, was to have been between the PD and Mario Monti’s hastily formed centrist Civic Choice party. The PD won 123 seats in the senate, but Monti campaigned poorly and won only 19 senate seats. This would leave them some 16 seats short of the 158 required to govern.</p>
<p>The other options are not promising.</p>
<p>A grand coalition between the PD and Berlusconi’s People of Liberty (PdL), unthinkable before the election, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/26/us-italy-vote-idUSBRE91M0EB20130226">is now on the table</a>. Berlusconi stated immediately after the results came through that he <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/berlusconi-concedes-as-he-weighs-alliance-to-break-vote-deadlock.html">doesn’t favour</a> fresh elections and would be prepared to cooperate for stable government. But it would be difficult to see such an arrangement lasting beyond the next budget.</p>
<p>A further possibility would be a minority government that would operate with the support of Grillo’s M5S. Grillo is still indicating that he <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/26/italy-bersani-coalition-beppe-grillo">won’t cooperate</a> with the major parties - indeed he campaigned with the slogan, “<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/upstart-italian-party-could-be-a-recipe-for-chaos/article9013607/">Let’s send them all packing!</a>”.</p>
<p>But how the M5S candidates will act in parliament is entirely unclear, as most of them are <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/72f86158-7f9a-11e2-8d96-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2M3JRneBS">political novices</a> and unknown quantities. Given Grillo’s attack on <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-14/beppe-grillo-the-clown-prince-of-italian-politics/4008900">traditional party politics</a> and a call for greater parliamentary integrity, his deputies and senators may well be given a free rein to provide informal support to the PD.</p>
<p>In short, the results highlight the need for electoral reform to prevent the sort of governmental instability that characterises Italian national politics.</p>
<p>It is possible that there will be a quick reform to electoral law followed by fresh elections in search of a stable majority. President Giorgio Napolitano may seek to orchestrate this as his final act in a long and distinguished career. He is 87 years old and his term in office finishes in May.</p>
<p>The desire for democratic normality (defined as stable government, regular alternation between left and right, low levels of corruption, transparency and accountability) is a defining aspiration of <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21572254-next-government-will-be-shaped-key-regions-votersand-abstainers-when-cynics-rule">Italian politics</a>. And there is the growing sense that to achieve normality there needs to be a radical break with the past political order. Grillo’s M5S seems to offer this, which explains a large part of its appeal.</p>
<p>The irony of Grillo’s success, however, is that it has come at the cost of short-term governmental stability and could send a shock wave through European markets which may reignite the Euro crisis. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12493/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Berryman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A Berlusconi led right-wing coalition has delivered a shock in the Italian elections, taking 30% of the vote and winning the senate in the key regions of Lombardy, Sicily and Veneto. Berlusconi was trailing…Adam Berryman, Researcher: European Politics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/122832013-02-21T19:33:20Z2013-02-21T19:33:20ZItaly at the crossroads: desperately seeking government in a time of crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20484/original/x66mqwbm-1361417715.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Regardless of who wins the 2013 election, citizens and commentators alike are pessimistic about Italy's economic outlook.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Italy has had several crucial elections in the past. In 1946, right after the end of World War II, citizens were called to decide between Republic and Monarchy. Two years later, the 1948 general election was a choice between the two blocs of the Cold War. In 1994, the so-called first Republic came to an end, swept away by corruption scandals, and voters had to give the Parliament new life. </p>
<p>But this 2013 election (24-25 February) is likely to stand out because there is something very gloomy about it. Italy is in a crisis, and not a “simple” debt crisis, as one might be tempted to believe. Most Italians today feel economically and financially insecure, their jobs are at risk, the prospects for their children are dim, and the widespread opinion is that no matter who wins the elections, things are not going to improve.</p>
<h2>Realistic pessimism</h2>
<p>This gloomy feeling has some justification in the data. Unemployment is now <a href="https://www.google.com.au/publicdata/explore?ds=z8o7pt6rd5uqa6_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:it&fdim_y=seasonality:sa&dl=en&hl=en&q=italian%20unemployment">above 11%</a>, two percentage points higher than a year ago. Youth unemployment is <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/11/07/young-italians-wrestle-a-job-market-that-favours-old-unfireable/">about 35%</a>, with peaks of more than 50% in certain areas of the South. About ¼ of the population is estimated to be at risk of poverty or social exclusion.</p>
<p>But perhaps more than these numbers, what really worries Italians is that the country appears to be trapped in a vicious circle of fiscal austerity — which many perceive as the consequence of undue European interferences — and worsening recession. </p>
<p>The last 12 months of Mario Monti’s government might have reinforced this impression. Acclaimed as a saviour by most media and European partners in November 2011, when the interest rate spread hit its maximum and the incumbent Berlusconi’s government seemed paralysed an incapable of action, Monti implemented a tough fiscal austerity plan mainly based on tax hikes.</p>
<p>The plan was successful in reassuring international markets and reducing the spread. But in the absence of significant expenditure cuts and ambitious reforms to re-start growth, it deepened the recession. As a result, household welfare is today lower than a year ago.</p>
<h2>Campaigning on economic issues</h2>
<p>The problem is that the debate on fiscal austerity in Italy has overshadowed the debate on economic growth. If a country achieves a steady rate of economic growth, then no draconian tax hikes and expenditure cuts are required to ensure the long-run sustainability of debt. In Italy, this simple lesson seems to have been forgotten. </p>
<p>Of course, the Italian situation 15 months ago was one of acute emergency. Without much time to boost growth, Monti’s only initial option was to adopt severe measures of fiscal austerity. Now the time has come to move away from this obsessive focus on austerity, but this is not what the main political parties seem to be doing.</p>
<p>Certainly, the policy platforms of all parties include some significant tax cuts. But the discussion on measures to relaunch growth has been marginalised. The problem of how to finance the tax cuts has attracted much more attention than the question of how to design new pro-growth reforms.</p>
<p>Berlusconi’s centre-right <a href="http://www.epp.eu/countryPg.asp?cid=14">People of Freedom Party</a> (PDL) proposes a large fiscal stimulus package consisting of tax cuts across the board and an increase in public investment. Extra revenues would be generated through an aggressive public assets sales plan, fiscal agreements with Switzerland for the taxation of Italians financial capitals abroad, and a reorganisation of tax expenditures. </p>
<p>Monti’s centrist movement <a href="http://www.sceltacivica.it/con-Monti-per-cambiare-Italia">Civic Choice</a> (SC) offers a significantly more conservative platform than the PDL: smaller-scale tax cuts, a larger reduction in the consumption component of government expenditure, and a more moderate increase in public investment. Similarly to the PDL, SC also proposes to generate extra-revenues via public assets sales, but again this plan is less ambitious (and probably more realistic) than that proposed by the PDL.</p>
<p>The policy platform of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20579689">Pier Luigi Bersani</a> seems to be more orientated towards redistribution. PD proposes a reduction in the lowest income tax rate and a reformulation of the property tax to reduce cost on poorer households and increase the burden on richer households. The main action in support of growth would probably be an increase in deductions on taxes on reinvested earnings.</p>
<p>None of the parties are proposing measures that are capable of sustaining high growth in the long term. A study recently <a href="http://www.corriere.it/Primo_Piano/Politica/Speciali/2013/elezioni-la-prova-dei-fatti/notizie/pop_Oxford-Economics.shtml">released by Oxford Economics</a> confirms that whichever of these three platforms were to be implemented, the annual average growth rate of Italy over the period 2013-2018 would be less than 1%.</p>
<p>Considering that the fourth major contestant is the anti-politics <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21571886-comedian-and-populist-whose-result-may-be-underestimated-five-star-menu">Five Star movement of Beppe Grillo</a>, whose economic platform is limited to generic statements on the need to curb public administration costs, the chances that this election can mark the beginning of new growth era for Italy are feeble.</p>
<p>And exit polls contribute to the darkening outlook: no party is likely to have a solid majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Hence, the need to form a coalition (most likely between PD and SC, with PDL and the Five Stars movement at the opposition) will further complicate economic policy-making and reduce the space for long-term reforms.</p>
<p>Is then Italy doomed? Maybe not. Its problems are home-grown, which means that solutions are also to be found at home. As a political and economic system, Italy has the potential to find a way out of the crisis. However, to do so, the country (its political class, its private sector, its citizens) will have to recover the entrepreneurial spirit, the vision, and the courage that made the “economic miracle” of the ‘50s and ‘60s possible. The question is: is Italy prepared to “go back to the future”?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12283/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise continuous linear model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p>Italy has had several crucial elections in the past. In 1946, right after the end of World War II, citizens were called to decide between Republic and Monarchy. Two years later, the 1948 general election…Fabrizio Carmignani, Associate Professor, Griffith Business School , Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.