tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/jair-bolsonaro-53689/articlesJair Bolsonaro – The Conversation2024-02-20T16:01:57Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234982024-02-20T16:01:57Z2024-02-20T16:01:57ZWhy Bolsonaro failed to overthrow democracy – and why a threat remains<p>President Jair Bolsonaro summoned his ministers and staff to a meeting at his official residence on July 5, 2022. They discussed at length ways to prevent a defeat in the upcoming October elections. Everyone in the room seemed to agree that democracy should not stand in their way.</p>
<p>When in office, the former president spoke several times against the integrity of the 2022 elections, ripping off Donald Trump’s infamous <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/13/business/stop-the-steal-disinformation-campaign-invs/index.html">#StopTheSteal campaign</a>. To the Bolsonaro administration, elections had always been a nuisance, but no one knew how far they would go to remain in office.</p>
<p>Last week, footage of the meeting was disclosed as part of a court order issued by Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes. The Federal Police arrested three of Bolsonaro’s closest aides and carried out search warrants against former ministers and high-ranking military officers. </p>
<p>They are being investigated for allegedly hatching a military coup as a response to Lula da Silva’s victory in the vote. Amid searches, the police found a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/8/brazil-police-seize-bolsonaros-passport-amid-coup-probe">draft decree</a> through which Bolsonaro would institute a state of siege in the country, hand over power to the generals, and put Justice Moraes behind bars.</p>
<p>Bolsonarism hates <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/americas/brazil-alexandre-de-moraes.html">Moraes</a> even more so than it hates Lula. After all, several decisions made by Brazil’s maverick justice have been key to curbing extremism and preserving democracy. </p>
<h2>Holding on, no matter what</h2>
<p>The rise and fall of Bolsonaro has made it clear that the far right is as much about ideology as it is about authoritarianism. The former Brazilian president and his associates would not just go to great lengths to fight culture wars and discredit enemies; investigations have shown that they would do whatever it took to hold on to power.</p>
<p>Why, then, did Bolsonaro fail to overthrow democracy? Incompetence and self-deception have surely played a role, but there are more layers to Brazil’s democratic survival. One of them is that the Supreme Court seemed to be always one step ahead of Bolsonaro. </p>
<p>Since the president’s supporters began flooding the streets during the COVID-19 pandemic to demand a military intervention, the court ordered no less than <a href="https://iepecdg.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/o-stf-e-a-defesa-da-democracia-no-brasil_230702_174751.pdf">eight probes against Bolsonaro and his allies</a> both inside and outside the government. Judicial pressure has greatly increased the costs of spreading mass disinformation and openly attacking institutions.</p>
<p>Another reason was international mobilization in defense of Brazilian democracy. Bolsonaro’s desire to play by Donald Trump’s radical playbook was a red flag to many foreign activists, journalists, and politicians. As it became clear that Bolsonarism was, in many ways, a tropical version of Trumpism, Brazil was turned into a global ideological battleground between progressives and reactionaries. </p>
<p>The far right, <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/163301/steve-bannon-brazil-maga-battleground-bolsonaro">spearheaded by Steve Bannon</a>, used Brazil as a laboratory of extremist ideas, especially while Trump was still president. Democratic advocates, in turn, closed ranks with their Brazilian counterparts to resist Bolsonaro’s assault on human rights, public health, and the environment. With Biden in the White House, the US also helped constrain the Bolsonaro administration through diplomatic channels.</p>
<p>Lula’s electoral triumph in 2022 was largely seen as a victory for democrats. Yet, Brazil’s political institutions cannot be taken for granted. Perhaps the most alarming message of the latest Supreme Court probes is that military officials have been involved in undermining democracy every step of the way. </p>
<p>Rather than repudiating popular calls for a coup, the military has at times stimulated anti-democratic behavior to serve its own vanity – and run counter to the law. Thousands of Bolsonaro supporters had camped in front of the military headquarters, with the complicity of the armed forces, providing the perfect breeding ground for the January 8, 2023 coup attempt.</p>
<h2>Testing the limits of democracy</h2>
<p>In fact, the Brazilian version of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riots is a cautionary tale of how a coup attempt may take place even after the autocrat steps down. While Trump, who was still in office, stirred a mob to invade Congress and prevent the session that would certify the 2020 election results, chaos spread by pro-Bolsonaro hordes took place one week after Lula had been sworn in. Even under Lula’s authority, the military did nothing to stop the destruction in Brasilia.</p>
<p>One year on, some members of the military still seem to be testing the limits of democracy. A few days ago, following the arrest of some active and retired officials in the federal police operation, former Bolsonaro vice-president and now Senator Hamilton Mourão went as far as to <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/02/08/bolsonaro-police-vp-military-revolt/">call on the military to stand up against the Supreme Court’s</a> “arbitrary and persecutory” ruling.</p>
<p>Mourão, a retired general turned politician, is not alone in his disgust at the rule of law. According to a national poll that ran the day after the February 8 probe, the country remains very much divided regarding Bolsonaro: 36.8% of respondents believe the former president did not attempt to stage a coup, 42.2% consider that he is being unfairly persecuted and 47.3% think Brazilians live under a “<a href="https://congressoemfoco.uol.com.br/area/pais/bolsonaro-tentou-golpe-sera-preso-pesquisa-mostra-opiniao-de-brasileiros/">judicial dictatorship</a>”. </p>
<p>This is all too symptomatic of a country that has yet to exorcise the demons of its dictatorial past and move beyond its deeply polarised present. Judges and politicians who are committed to democratic values must work together to fight and punish authoritarian populism in all its forms. </p>
<p>However, as long as Bolsonaro remains a central figure in Brazilian politics, this scenario is unlikely to change – and it may even get worse if Trump is elected again in the US. Although Bolsonaro is currently ineligible to stand for office, a political comeback is not unimaginable should democratic institutions fail to do their job.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223498/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guilherme Casarões não presta consultoria, trabalha, possui ações ou recebe financiamento de qualquer empresa ou organização que poderia se beneficiar com a publicação deste artigo e não revelou nenhum vínculo relevante além de seu cargo acadêmico.</span></em></p>Federal Police arrested some of Bolsonaro’s closest aides and carried out search warrants against former ministers and high-ranked military officers. The allegation: plotting a coup.Guilherme Casarões, Professor of Political Science, Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV/EAESP)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231412024-02-20T13:17:39Z2024-02-20T13:17:39ZHow Lula’s big-tent pragmatism won over Brazil again – with a little help from a backlash to Bolsonaro<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576290/original/file-20240217-26-3ec1u6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C58%2C5473%2C2740&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brazilian President Lula greets journalists, in Brasilia, one year after rioters stormed the presidential palace, Congress and Supreme Court buildings.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXBrazilRiotsOneYear/ba4ead6af3f84bd587b23503bf8dd425/photo?Query=lula&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=7372&currentItemNo=41">AP Photo/Eraldo Peres</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A year is a long time in Brazilian politics.</p>
<p>When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/01/1146518711/leftist-lula-brazil-sworn-in-president">assumed office in Brazil for a third time</a> in January 2023, many <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/lula-faces-challenges-in-brazil-after-win-over-bolsonaro?sref=Hjm5biAW">observers were pessimistic</a> about the returning president’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/31/luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-presidential-victory-brazil-sweet-govern">chances of governing successfully</a>. </p>
<p>The president, now 78 years old, had recently defeated <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/08/world/americas/jair-bolsonaro-brazil.html">Jair Bolsonaro</a>, the hard-right former president, by a narrow margin – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-votes-heated-bolsonaro-vs-lula-presidential-runoff-2022-10-30/">50.9% to 49.1%</a>. But despite that victory, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jair-bolsonaro-politics-brazil-government-florida-state-south-america-8d7e202b93b6cba7196c4baba32b6452">many Brazilian state governments</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/right-wing-wins-brazils-congress-show-staying-power-bolsonarismo-2022-10-03/">as well as the country’s Congress</a>, remained dominated by followers of Bolsonaro.</p>
<p>Following his electoral loss in 2022, Bolsonaro <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/brazil-president-jair-bolsonaro-declines-to-concede-defeat">refused at first to acknowledge defeat</a>. He <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-says-no-justification-attempted-terrorist-act-capital-2022-12-30/">declined to take part</a> in the traditional passing of the presidential sash during Lula’s Jan. 1, 2023, inauguration ceremony.</p>
<p>Then a week later, on Jan. 8, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-under-attack-in-brazil-5-questions-about-the-storming-of-congress-and-the-role-of-the-military-197396">invaded and vandalized</a> Brazil’s presidential palace, Congress and Supreme Court buildings in Brasília, the capital, in an <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/09/1230337023/a-former-president-in-brazil-is-accused-of-trying-to-overturn-his-election-defea">alleged attempt to trigger a state of siege and annul</a> Lula’s win.</p>
<p>The attempted insurrection failed but nonetheless left a lingering gloom about the state of politics in Brazil.</p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/brazil-bolsonaro-riots-anniversary-one-year-b49854a5bc0c3ee82aefca6b719c51b1">A year later</a>, the pessimism seems to have been unwarranted.</p>
<h2>Political unity</h2>
<p>In a recent <a href="https://www.atlasintel.org/polls/general-release-polls">Atlas Intel poll</a>, 52% of Brazilians said they <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-06/brazil-s-lula-starts-second-year-with-popularity-on-the-rise?sref=Hjm5biAW">approve of Lula’s performance</a>, while 58% responded that they see the government’s performance as “very good,” “good” or “OK.” In contrast, 39% described it as “bad” or “very bad.”</p>
<p>How has Lula’s administration managed, at least so far, to beat expectations?</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TY-ajWEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of Brazilian politics</a>, I believe his popularity has a lot to do with what happened on Jan. 8, 2023. The attack in Brasilia has apparently <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-08/a-year-after-brazil-capital-riots-bolsonaro-s-right-wing-movement-seeks-rebrand?sref=Hjm5biAW">defused the right-wing threat</a> to Lula’s hold on power. With a police investigation in February 2024 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/world/americas/brazil-police-raid-bolsonaro-attempted-coup-investigation.html">zeroing in on Bolsonaro and his inner circle</a>, the former president appears to be in no position to mount a challenge.</p>
<p>At the same time, Lula has kept his <a href="https://time.com/6226269/how-lula-won-brazil-election/">broad coalition</a> largely intact by working with pragmatic members of Congress who don’t belong to his leftist political party to build and maintain a legislative majority.</p>
<p>The Jan. 8 attack was followed by a <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/01/in-brazil-another-way-to-remember-an-attempted-coup/">show of political unity</a> in Brazil. Most politicians, including many who supported Bolsonaro’s reelection, condemned the assault on democracy. </p>
<p>Similarly, a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/12/americas/brazil-riots-condemned-polling-intl/index.html">large majority</a> of Brazilians condemned the attack and approved of measures to investigate and prosecute those behind the attempted coup.</p>
<p>Here, too, Lula appears to have played his hand well. Rather than use the opportunity to purge Bolsonaro supporters from key positions in the government, he refrained from installing his own loyalists.</p>
<p>For example, when the governor of the Federal District, Ibaneis Rocha, was suspended over his handling of the unrest, his vice governor – a <a href="https://opopular.com.br/politica/conheca-celina-le-o-bolsonarista-goiana-que-assume-o-governo-do-df-no-lugar-de-ibaneis-rocha-1.2592425">Bolsonaro supporter – was allowed to replace him</a>.</p>
<h2>Bolsonaro’s convictions</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, the investigation and prosecution of Bolsonaro and his inner circle have <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/02/13/world/politics/bolsonaro-coup-probe-brazil-opposition/">weakened the political right</a>.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/30/americas/bolsonaro-court-abuse-of-power-ruling-intl-latam/index.html">convicted of abusing political power and misusing public media</a> in June 2023. That case dealt with a meeting before the 2022 elections in which he told foreign ambassadors that Brazil’s electronic voting system was subject to fraud and that the Supreme Court was prepared to favor Lula.</p>
<p>Due to that conviction, Bolsonaro, who is now 68 years old, cannot run for office for the next eight years.</p>
<p>In October 2023, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court <a href="https://en.mercopress.com/2023/11/02/bolsonaro-and-braga-netto-guilty-of-politically-using-independence-day-celebrations">convicted Bolsonaro again</a>, this time for abusing political power during an independence day celebration.</p>
<p>As of February 2024, Brazil’s Federal Police are investigating the Bolsonaro administration’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/brazil-ramagem-bolsonaro-police-spying-18d039c5e111e18341afe8ee2fb4428d">alleged use of an intelligence agency to spy on its political enemies</a> and the alleged attempt of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/brazil-police-bolsonaro-allies-search-coup-a060e6570a03f9b094ebdcfa2847736d">some Bolsonaro insiders to subvert</a> the results of the 2022 elections. </p>
<p>While such investigations could be perceived as political, Lula’s government has been somewhat insulated from such criticism because Brazil’s government can influence, but not control, its judiciary.</p>
<p>Moreover Lula has stressed the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/22/brazils-incoming-president-lula-unveils-more-cabinet-picks">collaborative nature of his administration</a>, presenting it as a <a href="https://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article8106">coalition government that is not ruled exclusively by his party</a>.</p>
<h2>Broad coalition</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://valorinternational.globo.com/politics/news/2022/10/30/with-small-governing-coalition-lula-will-have-to-negotiate-with-opposition.ghtml">center-left coalition of 10 parties</a> that backed Lula’s presidential bid has grown since he took office. Two cabinet positions even went to <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/brazil-lula-adds-bolsonaro-supporters-to-cabinet/a-66741324">politicians who had supported Bolsonaro in the past</a>.</p>
<p>Lula’s party, the Partido dos Trabalhadores, or Workers’ Party, holds only six of the 31 cabinet positions. And the president has had to exert his influence over his own party to keep dissenting voices within it at bay.</p>
<p>Lula’s willingness to work with Congress and his big tent approach to consensus-building starkly contrast with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/25/bolsonaro-return-brazil/">Bolsonaro’s political polarization</a>.</p>
<p>On Feb. 1, 2023, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-brazil-government-caribbean-democracy-02535a22bdeaf2b24e04bb1a20638597">Rodrigo Pacheco, the Senate’s president, and Arthur Lira</a>, who is president of Brazil’s lower house of Congress, were reelected. Lula chose to support their candidacies despite both men being allied with Bolsonaro in the 2022 election campaign.</p>
<p>Once the congressional term began, Lula was able to use his experience and personal relationships with lawmakers to build the majorities that now support his agenda.</p>
<p>Lula has <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/12/05/world-bank-to-support-new-phase-of-brazil-s-bolsa-familia-program">revived his signature Bolsa Familia program</a>, which provides 21 million families – more than a quarter of the population – with an average of R$670 reais (US$136) per month. Brazil has <a href="https://wageindicator.org/salary/minimum-wage/minimum-wages-news/2024/general-minimum-wage-revised-in-brazil-from-01-january-2024-january-08-2024">increased the minimum wage</a> in real terms and is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/brazil-economy-lula-tax-congress-522843f46c3b904ed33cf8940785fe46">streamlining and simplifying its tax system</a> in ways that will help individual taxpayers and businesses. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A short man in a suit salutes while surrounded by other men in suits, clasping a tall one's hand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576291/original/file-20240217-20-hmntpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lula waves while shaking hands with Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-brazil-government-caribbean-democracy-02535a22bdeaf2b24e04bb1a20638597">AP Photo/Eraldo Peres</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Stability is a big plus</h2>
<p>What makes the popularity and repositioning of Lula as a unity leader all the more remarkable is that the left-wing politican was himself seen as a divisive figure not too long ago. But Bolsonaro’s presidency changed the tenor of Brazilian politics.</p>
<p>Most Brazilians today appear to want to overcome the divisions Bolsonaro promoted and favor stability and predictable policies over seeing their own side dominate the government.</p>
<p>Lula’s popularity has also benefited from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/brazil-economy-grows-slightly-in-third-quarter-as-slowdown-looms?sref=Hjm5biAW">Brazil’s economy, which performed far better in 2023</a> than many economists had expected.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/brazil-inflation-ends-2023-in-target-range-286aa1aa">Inflation fell to 4.6%</a> at the end of 2023, less than half the <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/core-inflation-rate">pace it was running a year earlier</a>. Gross domestic product <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=BR">grew 3% last year, about the same rate as in 2022</a>. And <a href="https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room/2185-news-agency/releases-en/39208-quarterly-continuous-pnad-unemployment-retreats-in-two-fus-in-q4-2023">unemployment fell to 7.4%</a>, the <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.NE.ZS?locations=BR">lowest level since 2014</a>. </p>
<p>The strong economy has helped boost Lula’s popularity because he has been able to assure centrists that he’s governing responsibly.</p>
<p>In politics, as with investing, past performance does not guarantee future returns. But for now, Lula’s pragmatic coalition-building and his careful negotiations with Congress are paying off.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223141/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Pereira has received funding from the Inter-American Foundation and the Organization of American States.</span></em></p>The third-term president has used his experience and personal relationships with lawmakers to build the majorities that now support his agenda.Anthony Pereira, Director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219382024-01-25T22:36:01Z2024-01-25T22:36:01ZIs Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei, a far-right leader? The answer is not simple<p>A shockwave has been rippling through Argentina <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/javier-milei-wins-argentina-presidential-elections-runoff/">since Javier Milei came to power in December</a>, prompting demonstrators to take to the streets in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/24/argentina-strike-protest-javier-milei">general strike</a> on Wednesday.</p>
<p>With an ideology described as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/world/americas/argentina-javier-milei-cuts.html">“anarcho-capitalism,”</a> Milei promises major upheaval in a country with a long tradition of state control, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/argentina-presidential-election-1.7033471">which is now in the throes of a deep economic crisis</a>. </p>
<p>While the radical nature of his proposals won over many Argentines, it also alienated many, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentine-powerful-union-calls-january-strike-action-2023-12-28/">leading to calls for the general strike</a>. </p>
<p>Analysts have tried to understand the ideological links between Milei and the various far-right movements that have emerged over the last 20 years, particularly in Europe and the United States. </p>
<p>As a doctoral student in political science at Laval University, my research focuses on authoritarianism, particularly in Argentina. In the following, I explore the relationship between Milei and the far-right movement. </p>
<h2>Be careful about drawing quick conclusions</h2>
<p>Milei <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/12/javier-milei-and-the-populist-wave-in-argentina/">can be described as a populist</a>. The description is apt, even natural, if we consider the many references he makes in his speeches to far-right figures such as <a href="https://twitter.com/JMilei/status/1727501082560205296">Donald Trump</a>, Brazil’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/trump-bolsonaro-javier-milei-argentina-far-right">Jair Bolsonaro</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/santiago-abascal-who-is-spains-far-right-leader-what-does-he-stand-2023-07-17/">Spain’s Santiago Abascal</a>, president of the Vox formation, <a href="https://thediplomatinspain.com/en/2023/11/milei-invites-abascal-to-his-inauguration-as-argentine-president/">whom he invited to his inauguration</a>.</p>
<p>Milei’s calls to fight “the left,” <a href="https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/01/argentinas-milei-berates-western-neo-marxists-at-world-economic-forum/">his criticism of “cultural Marxism,”</a> and his openly anti-system approach all reinforce this identity.</p>
<p>However, this rather simplistic comparison ignores significant differences in Milei’s program, particularly where his economic and migration policies are concerned. Despite similarities, there are significant differences, particularly in the way each movement understands the role of the state and its relationship to society as a whole. </p>
<p>Specifically, I would like to draw attention to a central difference, namely the role of nationalism, and to the innovations Milei has introduced in the context of the global rise of the right.</p>
<h2>Nativist nationalism at the heart of the far right</h2>
<p>In an article summarizing the far-right political parties in Europe, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042814-012441">Matt Golder</a>, professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University, analyzes the scientific literature on them. He finds three elements that are increasingly characteristic of this movement: “nationalism,” “populism,” and “radicalism.”</p>
<p>The nationalism expounded by far-right parties can be described as “nativism.” According to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511492037">Cas Mudde</a>, professor of political science at the University of Georgia, “nativism” is understood as “nationalism plus xenophobia.” It is based on the idea of the existence of an imaginary “native” population <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042814-012441">built on cultural or ethnic features</a>, whose homogeneity must be protected from any element that is foreign and external to it. </p>
<p>With its conception of a homogeneous community, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511492037">nativism is then added to nationalism, which is articulated as the congruence between state and nation</a>. This contributes the element of xenophobia mentioned by Mudde. In so doing, extreme right-wing movements put forward a radicalized preference for anything that can be defined as belonging to the “national community.”</p>
<p>This version of nationalism is well known, and it is easy to find European and American examples of it: <a href="https://gnet-research.org/2023/01/27/mainstreaming-far-right-conspiracies-eric-zemmours-discourse-as-a-case-study/">Éric Zemmour’s calls against the “Great Replacement,”</a> <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/the-snake-song-lyrics-trump-b2464914.html">Trump’s warnings about the danger of immigration</a>, or the Islamophobia of <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-with-frauke-petry-of-the-alternative-for-germany-a-1084493.html">the Alternative for Germany party</a>, are some examples. </p>
<p>This nativism on the part of far-right parties is becoming the foundation of their political projects, including their economic policies.</p>
<p>It is on this basis that the contemporary far right is putting forward clear protectionist projects. A large proportion of far-right movements share Euro-scepticism, nationalization and anti-globalization rhetoric. The root of their projects is a belief in a national community, defined either in ethnic or cultural terms, which must be protected from the influence of outside elements. </p>
<h2>Liberalizing the economy, Milei’s priority</h2>
<p>Although the list of promises of Milei’s party may come as a surprise due to their radical nature and breadth, the element of nativism is absent from his rhetoric.</p>
<p>Rather, the plans and platform of his party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), represent a clear opposition to nativism, which is widespread in Argentina and represented by the Peronist movement. Accusations of his alleged anti-immigration ideology are also unfounded, at least so far.</p>
<p>Milei’s program mentions immigration only marginally. This is evident in LLA’s <a href="https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/paginas/pdf/plataformas/2023/PASO/JUJUY%2079%20PARTIDO%20RENOVADOR%20FEDERAL%20-PLATAFORMA%20LA%20LIBERTAD%20AVANZA.pdf">electoral platform</a>, where the subjects of “nation” and immigration are relatively absent. </p>
<p>Argentina has in fact received proportionally <a href="https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/servlet/BMTendanceStatPays?langue=fr&codePays=ARG&codeTheme=1&codeStat=SM.POP.NETM">fewer immigrants than most European or North American countries in recent years</a>. The debate over immigration is more about the universality of the health and education services, thanks to which everyone, regardless of their migratory status, <a href="https://sherloc.unodc.org/cld/uploads/res/document/ley-de-migraciones-25871-english_html/Ley_de_Migraciones_25871_English.pdf">can benefit from the public health system (even tourists) and free education</a>. Milei is not exactly opposed to immigration (he has <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfNnAKnHxGo">even expressed support for</a> certain types of state spending associated with it).</p>
<p>On the other hand, liberalization has been, and continues to be the pillar of Milei’s program, which is perfectly embodied in the proposal to eliminate the central bank and introduce free monetary competition. <a href="https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/paginas/pdf/plataformas/2023/PASO/CABA%20501%20LA%20LIBERTAD%20AVANZA%20ADHIERE%20PLATAFORMA%20ON.pdf">His program</a> also includes dollarization, optimizing and reducing the size of the state, opening up to international trade, reforming the labour code, mental health laws and regulations on medical services.</p>
<h2>Wait before judging Milei’s political project</h2>
<p>In other words, in spite of his populist style and the radical nature of his proposals, Milei’s approach makes it difficult to immediately identify him with the European and American far right without further qualification.</p>
<p>This does not necessarily mean that the Milei phenomenon should not be considered part of the extended family of the far right. As <a href="https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/c983y398v0do">Cristóbal Rovira, Professor at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile states,</a> not all members of the far-right “family” embrace all its elements. However, it does force us to think twice before making quick and what could be simplistic associations. The fact that Milei has spoken in favour of Trump does not make him, by definition, “Trumpist.”</p>
<p>There are certainly individuals within his political party who are closer to the political projects of Trump or <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/santiago-abascal-who-is-spains-far-right-leader-what-does-he-stand-2023-07-17/">Santiago Abascal</a>. However, Milei’s personal positions largely define what we can expect from his government and the political project he is putting forward.</p>
<p>Although Milei, himself, affirms his ideological kinship with leaders often included in the large family of the contemporary far right, certain elements of his program and the core of his ideology show some distance from this movement. More broadly, in order to understand what is new about a political phenomenon and what this implies, it is important to put it into context.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221938/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Federico Chaves Correa ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Some aspects of Argentine President Javier Milei’s programme resemble the far right, but others do not. Without excluding him from this movement, we should recognize there are differences.Federico Chaves Correa, Doctorant en science politique, Université LavalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112972023-08-14T21:12:30Z2023-08-14T21:12:30ZTrump indicted in Georgia: Why do his supporters remain loyal?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544762/original/file-20230825-22-uq5qpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=709%2C72%2C2619%2C2607&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This booking photo provided by Fulton County Sheriff's Office shows Donald Trump on Aug. 24, 2023, after he surrendered and was booked at the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta. Trump is accused of scheming to subvert the will of Georgia voters in a desperate bid to keep Joe Biden out of the White House. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Fulton County Sheriff's Office via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/trump-indicted-in-georgia-why-do-his-supporters-remain-loyal" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://www.newsweek.com/majority-canadians-say-trump-re-election-would-end-us-democracy-poll-1677591">People around the world</a> — <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-indictment-jan-6-opinion-poll-2023-08-06/">including many Americans</a> — cannot understand why a sizeable portion of the United States population continues to support Donald Trump, despite an ever-increasing list of charges against him, including <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/">the latest indictments</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-georgia-indictment-rcna98900">in Georgia</a>.</p>
<p>Before the newest charges were announced, Trump was running <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/01/biden-trump-2024-poll-00109161">neck and neck against President Joe Biden in a hypothetical rematch.</a> It seems unlikely the Georgia indictments, pertaining to alleged attempts <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/trump-investigation/live-blog/trump-indictment-fulton-county-georgia-live-updates-rcna79536">to interfere with the 2020 presidential election results</a>, will erode the former president’s support.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1694876172406890534"}"></div></p>
<p>This shocks people because strong backing of a man who <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-support-has-held-steady-despite-legal-troubles-is-that-changing">lies, cheats and threatens the U.S. Constitution</a> has no precedent in national politics. However, there is a precedent in state politics which almost reached the presidential level, and some comparable situations in other countries.</p>
<h2>You can always get what you want?</h2>
<p>Those who support Trump unconditionally <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3978590-why-gop-voters-are-so-loyal-to-trump/">have not varied much since the last election</a>. This support encompasses numerous groups with numerous reasons, but, for most, there is one overriding concern. They believe that he will get them results on the issues that they feel are the most important in the country.</p>
<p>Evangelical Christians who support him do so because he appointed conservative justices, leading to — among other outcomes — <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/24/1102305878/supreme-court-abortion-roe-v-wade-decision-overturn">the overturning of <em>Roe v. Wade</em></a>. His extra-marital affairs pale in comparison to this long-term goal of the Christian right.</p>
<p>Some disenchanted Democratic voters have joined the Trump bandwagon. They include <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/04/05/opinion/jeff-jacoby-democratic-party/">blue-collar workers</a> and small business people who see jobs being sent overseas, as well as some <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/trump-latinos-biden-2020/616901/">Latino voters</a> who regard Trump as acting in concert with their Catholic morality by appointing justices who are more conservative. They also like his opposition to illegal immigration.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/harsh-republican-immigration-rhetoric-is-invigorating-latino-voters-54682">Harsh Republican immigration rhetoric is invigorating Latino voters</a>
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<hr>
<p>The tens of thousands of potential immigrants struggling to illegally cross the U.S.-Mexico border frighten those worried that they will lose the non-skilled jobs still remaining in the U.S., and those in rural areas <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/08/25/5-facts-about-trump-supporters-views-of-immigration/">who see the values of what they consider traditional white America under threat.</a></p>
<p>For all of these supporters, getting what they want is more important than worrying about <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-melania-stormy-daniels-affairs-marriages-timeline-2018-3">Trump’s marital indiscretions</a>, purloined government documents or whether he tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election or encouraged the storming of the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blond man in a blue suit walks onto a stage as people smile and waves signs supporting him in the audience." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541964/original/file-20230809-27-lmtbkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=300%2C0%2C2200%2C1805&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541964/original/file-20230809-27-lmtbkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541964/original/file-20230809-27-lmtbkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541964/original/file-20230809-27-lmtbkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541964/original/file-20230809-27-lmtbkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541964/original/file-20230809-27-lmtbkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541964/original/file-20230809-27-lmtbkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally in July 2023 in Erie, Pa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lies become the truth</h2>
<p>Of course, <a href="https://news.berkeley.edu/2022/11/14/loss-fear-and-rage-are-white-men-rebelling-against-democracy">there is more to Trump’s appeal than simply promising to Make America Great Again</a>. He is a true demagogue who repeats his simple message over and over again, often loudly and with great emphasis. He repeatedly and relentlessly demeans his detractors and lies about the 2020 election.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A black and white photo shows a thin dark-haired man in a Nazi uniform speaking into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541959/original/file-20230809-26767-tmneh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541959/original/file-20230809-26767-tmneh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541959/original/file-20230809-26767-tmneh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541959/original/file-20230809-26767-tmneh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541959/original/file-20230809-26767-tmneh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=974&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541959/original/file-20230809-26767-tmneh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=974&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541959/original/file-20230809-26767-tmneh8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=974&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this 1938 photo, Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels speaks to party members in Berlin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A quote attributed to Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi propaganda minister, translates roughly as: <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20161026-how-liars-create-the-illusion-of-truth">“Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth.”</a> </p>
<p>Trump uses this technique very effectively with his supporters, including those on the far-right fringe, who respond well to his implied message to “make America white again.” A substantial portion of the Republican Party reinforces Trump’s lies by either <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/05/politics/2020-election-predictor-2024/index.html">agreeing with his claims of election fraud</a>, or being careful not to comment on them or to criticize Trump.</p>
<p>The effect of social media in Trump’s allure shouldn’t be dismissed. There you will find “proof” of Trump’s claims — plots by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-jan-6-indictment-misinformation-e9d5077300dafa4c774429b7f82d8930">the “Deep State” and by Democratic justice officials</a> to persecute the winner of the 2020 election. These allegations are highly effective with citizens who have turned away from mainstream media because of its criticism of the man who is working for them.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A dark-haired man in a suit and tie gestures as he makes a speech in a black-and-white photo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541957/original/file-20230809-30-9s7804.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541957/original/file-20230809-30-9s7804.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541957/original/file-20230809-30-9s7804.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541957/original/file-20230809-30-9s7804.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541957/original/file-20230809-30-9s7804.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541957/original/file-20230809-30-9s7804.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541957/original/file-20230809-30-9s7804.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this 1934 photo, Sen. Huey P. Long addresses students at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge, a year before he was assassinated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While there is no other presidential candidate who has used this demagoguery and appeal to prejudice so brazenly, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/03/huey-long-was-donald-trumps-left-wing-counterpart/583933/">there is a partial parallel in Huey Long</a>, governor of Louisiana from 1928 to 1932 and a U.S. senator from 1932 to 1935. </p>
<p>A supporter of the poor, a harsh critic of banks and a believer in authoritarian government, he was famous for his rousing speeches. A controversial figure, he was dogged by accusations of political corruption but nonetheless loved by many. He was planning to run for president but was assassinated in 1935.</p>
<h2>Trump’s Brazilian doppelganger</h2>
<p>For a modern parallel, one must look outside the United States.</p>
<p>The most obvious parallel is in Brazil, where strongman Jair Bolsonaro ruled from 2018 to 2023. He is a man Trump admires, claiming that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/10/donald-trump-jair-bolsonaro/620504/">Bolsonaro “fights hard for, and loves, the people of Brazil — just like I do for the people of the United States.”</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man holds up a yellow soccer jersey with a green No. 10 while another man smiles in an armchair beside him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jair Bolsonaro presents Donald Trump with a Brazilian national team soccer jersey in the Oval Office of the White House in March 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bolsonaro believed in cutting taxes, defending “family values” and was opposed to gun control and immigration from places like Haiti and the Middle East. <a href="http://monitoracism.eu/the-rise-of-bolsorano/">Considered racist, sexist and homophobic by some</a>, his fiery <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/06/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-tropical-trump-who-hankers-for-days-of-dictatorship">speeches often incited violence</a>, particularly against political opponents, criminals and “reds.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/bolsonaro-brazil-wouldnt-feel-anything-covid-19-attack-state-lockdowns">He dismissed COVID-19 as a fantasy, resulting in Brazil having one of the highest rates of infection in the world.</a> Defeated in 2022, he did not acknowledge the defeat, but said that he would abide by the country’s constitution.</p>
<p>He left the country rather than acknowledge his defeat, but his supporters stormed the Supreme Court, the congress building and the presidential palace to try to overturn the election. Unlike Trump, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-66070923">he’s been barred from running for office until 2030</a> because of his refusal to accept his defeat, and prosecuted for election fraud.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/judicial-activism-has-had-vastly-different-impacts-in-brazil-and-the-united-states-209091">Judicial activism has had vastly different impacts in Brazil and the United States</a>
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<p>The coming months will reveal whether the charges against Trump will erode his support or instead encourage his supporters to continue donating millions of dollars to support his election bid and his legal fees. So far, those supporters are <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/republican-support-for-trump-has-increased-even-as-he-faces-dozens-of-felony-charges">showing no signs</a> of turning against him.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ron Stagg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Those who support Donald Trump unconditionally have not wavered. Their support encompasses numerous groups and reasons, but first and foremost, they believe Trump gives them what they want.Ron Stagg, Professor of History, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105072023-08-06T08:47:35Z2023-08-06T08:47:35ZAn expanded BRICS could reset world politics but picking new members isn’t straightforward<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540476/original/file-20230801-18384-y0dg77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C127%2C2813%2C1757&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Cyril Ramaphosa will host the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Government Communication and Information System</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Eager to <a href="https://lmc.icds.ee/lennart-meri-lecture-by-fiona-hill/">escape perceived western domination</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/more-countries-want-to-join-brics-says-south-africa-/7190526.html#:%7E:text=Argentina%2C%20Iran%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%20and,nations%20have%20in%20the%20organization.">several countries</a> – mostly in the global south – are looking to join the <a href="https://brics2023.gov.za/#">Brics</a> bloc. The five-country bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is also looking to grow its global partnerships. </p>
<p>What <a href="https://www.gov.za/events/fifth-brics-summit-general-background">began in 2001</a> as an acronym for four of the fastest growing states, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), is projected to account for 45% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms by 2030. It has evolved into a political formation as well.</p>
<p>Crucial to this was these countries’ decision to form their own club <a href="http://infobrics.org/page/history-of-brics/">in 2009</a>, instead of joining an expanded G7 as envisioned by former Goldman Sachs CEO <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/archive/building-better.html">Jim O’Neill</a>, who coined the term “Bric”. <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-97397-1">Internal cohesion</a> on key issues has emerged and continues to be refined, despite challenges.</p>
<p>South Africa joined the group after a Chinese-initiated invitation <a href="https://www.gov.za/events/fifth-brics-summit-general-background">in 2010</a>; a boost for then president Jacob Zuma’s administration, which was eager to pivot further to the east. The bloc also gained by having a key African player and regional leader. </p>
<p>Ever since, the grouping has taken on a more pointedly political tone, particularly on the need to <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/10th-brics-summit-johannesburg-declaration-27-jul-2018-0000#:%7E:text=We%20recommit%20our%20support%20for,democracy%20and%20the%20rule%20of">reform global institutions</a>, in addition to its original economic raison d’etre.</p>
<p>The possibility of its enlargement has dominated headlines in the run up to its 15th summit in Johannesburg <a href="https://brics2023.gov.za/about-the-summit/">on 22-24 August</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-two-elephants-fight-how-the-global-south-uses-non-alignment-to-avoid-great-power-rivalries-199418">When two elephants fight: how the global south uses non-alignment to avoid great power rivalries</a>
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<p>We are political scientists whose <a href="https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-political-economy-of-intra-brics-cooperation-siphamandla-zondi/1140951138">research interests</a> include <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-62765-2">changes</a> to the global order and emerging alternative centres of power. In our view, it won’t be easy to expand the bloc. That’s because the group is still focused on harmonising its vision, and the potential new members do not readily make the cut. </p>
<p>Some may even bring destabilising dynamics for the current composition of the formation. This matters because it tells us that the envisioned change in the global order is likely to be much slower. Simply put, while some states are opposed to western <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202302/t20230220_11027664.html">hegemony</a>, they do not yet agree among themselves on what the new alternative should be. </p>
<h2>Evolution of BRICS</h2>
<p>BRICS’ overtly political character <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-62765-2_1">partially draws</a> on a long history of non-alignment as far back as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Bandung-Conference">Bandung Conference of 1955</a>. It was attended mostly by recently decolonised states and independence movements intent on asserting themselves against Cold War superpowers – the Soviet Union and the United States. </p>
<p>BRICS has come to be viewed as <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/13540661231183352">challenging the counter hegemony</a> of the US and its allies, seen as meddling in the internal affairs of other states. </p>
<p>Reuters estimates that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/more-than-40-nations-interested-joining-brics-south-africa-2023-07-20/#:%7E:text=South%20African%20officials%20want%20BRICS,Kazakhstan%20have%20all%20expressed%20interest.">more than 40 states</a> are aspiring to join BRICS. South African diplomat Anil Sooklal says 13 had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/05/28/how-brics-became-a-real-club-and-why-others-want-in/5caecc7e-fdb7-11ed-9eb0-6c94dcb16fcf_story.html">formally applied</a> by May 2023.</p>
<p>Many, though not all, of the aspiring joiners have this overtly political motivation of countering US hegemony. The other important incentive is access to funds from the BRICS’ <a href="https://www.ndb.int/projects/">New Development Bank</a>. This is especially pronounced in the post-COVID climate in which many economies are <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/05/1136727#:%7E:text=Prospects%20for%20a%20robust%20global,Prospects%20report%2C%20released%20on%20Tuesday.">yet to fully recover</a>. Of course the two can overlap, as in the case of Iran.</p>
<p>The notable applicants have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-says-it-has-applied-join-brics-club-russian-ria-agency-2023-07-25/">included</a> Saudi Arabia, Belarus, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-wants-to-join-the-brics-group-of-nations-an-expert-unpacks-the-pros-and-cons-209141">Ethiopia</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-says-has-chinas-support-join-brics-group-2022-07-07/">Argentina</a>, <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/11/09/the-new-candidate-countries-for-brics-expansion/">Algeria, Iran</a>, Mexico, and <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkiye-obvious-nation-for-expanded-brics-says-leading-economist/2896122">Turkey</a>. </p>
<h2>Expanded BRICS</h2>
<p>A strategically expanded BRICS would be seismic for the world order, principally in economic terms. </p>
<p>Key among the club’s reported priorities is <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/brics-currency-end-dollar-dominance-united-states-russia-china/">reduction of reliance</a> on the US dollar (“de-dollarisation” of the global economy). One of the hurdles to this is the lack of buy-in by much of the world. Though some states may disagree with the dollar’s dominance, they still see it as the most reliable.</p>
<p>Given the extent of globalisation, it’s unlikely that there will be attempts to chip away at the west’s access to strategic minerals and trade routes as happened during the <a href="https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/speech-president-nasser-alexandria-july-26-1956-extract">Suez Crisis of 1956</a>, at the height of the Cold War.</p>
<p>Instead, the new joiners would likely use their new BRICS membership to better bargain with their western partners, having more options on hand.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-wants-to-join-the-brics-group-of-nations-an-expert-unpacks-the-pros-and-cons-209141">Ethiopia wants to join the BRICS group of nations: an expert unpacks the pros and cons</a>
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<p>Herein lies the challenge (and the paradox) with BRICS expansion. On one hand, the grouping is not yet offering anything concrete to justify such drastic measures as de-dollarisation. On the other, the current five members also need to be selective about who they admit.</p>
<p>Among the considerations must surely be the track record of the applicants as well as their closeness to the west. The experience of having had a right-wing leader such as former Brazilian president <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-is-devastating-indigenous-lands-with-the-world-distracted-138478">Jair Bolsonaro</a> in its midst must have been a lesson about the need to be circumspect when admitting new members.</p>
<h2>Weighing the likely contenders</h2>
<p>In this regard, aspirants such as Saudi Arabia and Mexico seem the least likely to make the cut in the short term. That’s despite the Saudis’ oil wealth and Mexico’s <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/obrador-mexico-first-leftist-president-in-decades/4463520.html">leftist-progressive</a> leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Although they might be currently experiencing rocky relations with Washington, they have proven to be capable of rapprochement following previous disagreements with the US, with which they seem inextricably intertwined. </p>
<p>Saudi Arabia has a long-term military relationship with the US, while Mexico is the US’s <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0711#:%7E:text=and%20border%20region-,Mexico%20seeks%20to%20solidify%20rank%20as%20top,partner%2C%20push%20further%20past%20China&text=Mexico%20became%20the%20top%20U.S.,four%20months%20of%20this%20year.">number-one trading partner</a>. </p>
<p>Of equal importance in the evaluation of potential new members is the relationship the aspirants have with the existing BRICS members. This is because another crucial lesson has been the tiff between two of its largest members, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20578911221108800?icid=int.sj-abstract.citing-articles.1">China and India</a>, over their disputed border. As a result of the uneasy relationship between two of its members, the bloc has become alert to the importance of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13010">direct bilateral relations and dispute resolution</a> among its constituent leaders.</p>
<p>Among the applicants, Saudi Arabia, which has had a fractious relationship with Moscow in the past, seems to face an uphill climb. It also has difficult relations with Iran, another applicant, despite their recent rapprochement.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-role-as-host-of-the-brics-summit-is-fraught-with-dangers-a-guide-to-who-is-in-the-group-and-why-it-exists-206898">South Africa's role as host of the BRICS summit is fraught with dangers. A guide to who is in the group, and why it exists</a>
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<p>The country which seems the most suitable to join BRICS for ideological reasons, and will expand the bloc’s footing in the Caribbean, is Cuba. It enjoys strong ties with the existing members. It also has solid “counter-hegemonic” credentials, having been the bête noire of the US for more than 60 years. </p>
<p>Cuba is also a leader in the Latin American left and enjoys strong ties with many states in Central and South America (particularly with Guatemala, <a href="https://latinarepublic.com/2022/07/20/honduras-and-cuba-sign-a-memorandum-to-strengthen-bilateral-relations/">Honduras</a>, <a href="https://www.plenglish.com/news/2022/07/27/nicaraguan-fm-described-relations-with-cuba-as-endearing/">Nicaragua</a> and <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/venezuela-and-cuba-ties-bind">Venezuela</a>). Membership would boost its influence. </p>
<h2>Character matters</h2>
<p>If an expanded BRICS is to be an agent for change on the world scene, it will need to be capable of action. Having rivals, or states that are at least ambivalent towards each other, seems anathema to that.</p>
<p>Eager to proceed cautiously and expand strategically, the current BRICS states seems likely, at least in the short term, to pursue a <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/11/09/the-new-candidate-countries-for-brics-expansion/">BRICS-plus</a> strategy. In other words, there may emerge different strata of membership, with full membership granted to states that meet the group’s criteria over time. </p>
<p>It is thus not mere expansion, but the character of the expansion which will guide the five principals on whether they grow from that number.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Siphamandla Zondi is affiliated with the University of Johannesburg. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bhaso Ndzendze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is not mere expansion, but the character of the expansion which will guide the five Brics countries on whether they admit new members.Bhaso Ndzendze, Associate Professor (International Relations), University of JohannesburgSiphamandla Zondi, Acting Director: Institute for Pan-African Thought & Conversation, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2090912023-07-19T18:01:24Z2023-07-19T18:01:24ZJudicial activism has had vastly different impacts in Brazil and the United States<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537835/original/file-20230717-230483-yzjj97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C395%2C4551%2C2629&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump sits next to Jair Bolsonaro at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., in March 2020, when both men led their countries.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/judicial-activism-has-had-vastly-different-impacts-on-jair-bolsonaro-and-donald-trump" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Earlier this summer, Brazil’s top electoral court <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-66070923">banned former president Jair Bolsonaro from running for office for eight years</a>. Bolsonaro is 68 and will be unable to run for president until he’s 75.</p>
<p>Five of seven electoral court judges supported the ban on Bolsonaro, who, in the lead-up to the 2022 election, spread misinformation about the legitimacy of Brazil’s electronic voting system. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-violence-riot-military-vote-1.6574862">Brazil’s election was marred in violence, with voter suppression tactics occurring before the election</a>. After the vote, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/bolsonaro-supporters-storm-brazil-congress-1.6707323">stormed the Presidential Palace, congress and the Supreme Court</a>.</p>
<p>“This response will confirm our faith in the democracy,” <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/agencia-estado/2023/06/30/bolsonaro-inelegivel-confirma-fe-na-democracia-diz-moraes.htm">said Alexandre de Moraes</a>, a Supreme Court justice and head of the electoral court, as he cast his vote against Bolsonaro.</p>
<p>The former president is expected to appeal the ruling. However, he still faces 15 cases in the electoral court along with several ongoing criminal investigations. They encompass accusations that he improperly used public funds to influence the electoral vote and target his role in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/08/world/americas/brazil-election-protests-bolsonaro.html">provoking his followers to violence</a> on Jan. 8, 2023. </p>
<p>A conviction in these cases may render him ineligible to ever run for office.</p>
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<img alt="A man in a mask looks out a shattered window." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A supporter of Jair Bolsonaro looks out from a shattered window of the Planalto Palace after he and his fellow protesters stormed it in Brasilia, Brazil, in January 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)</span></span>
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<h2>Lessons for the United States</h2>
<p>The court’s ruling demonstrates an essential milestone in Brazil’s young democracy while offering lessons for other countries. That’s particularly true for the United States, where former president Donald Trump is the frontrunner to be the Republican presidential candidate in 2024 despite being under two indictments.</p>
<p>First, it indicates that Brazil’s institutions tend to respond vigorously when they perceive threats to democracy and prioritize preserving institutional stability. </p>
<p>Second, it highlights the proactive engagement of legal systems in addressing substantial modern risks to democracy, like disinformation, hate speech and attempts to manipulate voters. </p>
<p>Finally, it establishes a precedent to punish leaders, even presidents, who try to manipulate voters and stoke polarization. </p>
<p>But there are also important implications about the role of the courts in elections and the impact of judicial activism.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro — <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/11/world/americas/bolsonaro-trump-brazil-election.html">evidently inspired by his close ally, Trump</a> — followed a similar trajectory after losing his re-election campaign. Like Trump, he resorted to casting doubt and spreading misinformation about his country’s electoral system, ultimately leading to the storming of their respective democratic institutions. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1540669147952123904"}"></div></p>
<p>But the aftermath of their actions has unfolded in very different ways.</p>
<p>In Brazil, elections are governed by a federal court, which can determine whether candidates can seek office. The courts reacted swiftly after the Brazilian election, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/06/30/1185364211/brazil-bolsonaro-court-banned-election">barring Bolsonaro from re-election,</a> citing a threat to the country’s democracy. </p>
<p>American elections, however, are run by individual states, with different policies determining eligibility. Trump’s fate is therefore left up to the voters and the deliberative U.S. judicial system.</p>
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<img alt="A man holds up a yellow soccer jersey with a green No. 10 while another man smiles in an armchair beside him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Jair Bolsonaro presents Donald Trump with a Brazilian national team soccer jersey in the Oval Office of the White House in March 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)</span></span>
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<h2>Judicial activism</h2>
<p>The striking difference between the two cases is the role of the judiciary in federal elections. In Brazil, the court took on a role as a political regulator, <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/brazils-emerging-judicial-dictatorship/">fuelling a debate about judicial activism.</a></p>
<p>Judicial activism — when the judiciary takes an active role in addressing instability, threats or inequality rather than simply responding to cases brought by third parties — <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3923921">is attracting growing interest from scholars.</a> </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/confidence-in-the-supreme-court-is-declining-but-there-is-no-easy-way-to-oversee-justices-and-their-politics-187233">Confidence in the Supreme Court is declining – but there is no easy way to oversee justices and their politics</a>
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<p>The active role of courts often comes into play when democratic institutions are under threat, slow to act or neglectful in making crucial decisions or passing significant laws, leading to potential instability or dangerous legal loopholes.</p>
<p>Judicial activism has been <a href="https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes/em-debate-eleitoral-bolsonaro-critica-stf-e-ativismo-judicial/">particularly evident in the case of Bolsonaro</a>. A culmination of electoral misinformation, violence, threats against the judiciary and political instability resulted in the electoral court’s intervention.</p>
<p>This strong judicial response resulted in the loss of Bolsonaro’s political rights. It raises an important question: how far can a judiciary, intended to be independent and impartial, involve itself in the outcome of democratic proceedings?</p>
<p>Some scholars point out that <a href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/209720/edit">judicial activism can have negative effects on society.</a> </p>
<p>This is especially true when a president appoints court justices based on their political alignment and agenda. Trump did so and the result has been the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/24/us/politics/supreme-court-dobbs-jackson-analysis-roe-wade.html">endorsement of anti-abortion laws by the U.S. Supreme Court</a>. Another example is in Venezuela, where <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-27/venezuela-appoints-new-high-court-packed-with-government-allies?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner">the judiciary has supported President Nicolás Maduro</a>, resulting in the persecution of politicians who oppose his established regime.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A bald man sips from a white cup." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alexandre de Moraes, head of Brazil’s electoral court, sips coffee during Jair Bolsonaro’s trial at the Supreme Court in Brasilia, Brazil, in June 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Gustavo Moreno)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://exame.com/brasil/bolsonaro-inelegivel-como-ficara-o-cenario-politico-entre-aliados-e-opositores/">The role of the courts in determining Bolsonaro’s fate has fuelled far-right extremism in Brazil</a>. The Supreme Court has become a target, with threats and violence directed at its judges and their families. <a href="https://pledgetimes.com/pgr-says-it-will-take-appropriate-measures-on-attacks-on-moraes/">De Moraes and his son, in fact, were recently attacked at an airport in Italy by three Brazilians</a>.</p>
<h2>Overreach?</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro’s followers believe the judiciary has overstepped its bounds, intruding into the political arena. This sentiment could benefit politicians endorsed by Bolsonaro in upcoming elections. </p>
<p>On the other hand, <a href="https://www.dw.com/pt-br/com-bolsonaro-ineleg%C3%ADvel-a-direita-deve-lucrar-mais-que-a-esquerda/a-66052529">right-wing politicians who employ disinformation and hate speech as tools for electoral manipulation may need to change tactics</a>, prompted by the fear of judicial repercussions for voter incitement. </p>
<p>The actual impacts of the electoral court’s ruling, and the future of the far right in Brazil, will be tested during municipal elections in October 2024.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Judicial activism can be a double-edged sword. While it swiftly penalized Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro for election misinformation that stoked violence, it’s resulted in anti-choice laws in the U.S.Gerson Scheidweiler, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow in Equity Studies and member of the Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, CanadaTyler Valiquette, PhD Candidate, Human Geography, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2052632023-07-04T13:57:42Z2023-07-04T13:57:42ZThe forgotten Amazon: as a critical summit nears, politicians must get serious about deforestation in Bolivia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534132/original/file-20230626-15-x9sq5p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Deforestation in Santa Cruz, Bolivia (2021). Photo courtesy of Overview.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.over-view.com/">https://www.over-view.com/</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When asked to situate the world’s most iconic rainforest on a map, most people will pinpoint Brazil. And given the intense media coverage of the country’s deforestation and fires – concerns reached a peak under former president <a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-fires-jair-bolsonaro-faces-mounting-political-backlash-in-brazil-even-from-his-allies-122512">Jair Bolsonaro and his free-for-all approach</a> – they might also imagine a thick black soot clinging to the remaining trees. While newly re-elected president Lula da Silva has vowed to prioritize the Amazon forest and sparked hope among environmentalists, deforestation in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-amazon-is-not-safe-under-brazils-new-president-a-roads-plan-could-push-it-past-its-breaking-point-200691">Brazilian section of Amazon</a> remains of deep concern.</p>
<p>That interest is only set to grow as Brazil gets ready to host a high-level meeting to renew the <a href="https://tvpworld.com/69033237/brazil-to-renew-amazon-rainforest-protection-organization">Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization</a> (ACTO) in the northern town of Belem on 8 and 9 August. Bringing together the eight countries containing the Amazon forest – Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela – along with senior officials from the United States and France, the event will enable them to discuss how to attract investment, fight deforestation, protect indigenous communities and encourage sustainable development. </p>
<p>The meeting will also be the occasion for sustainability scientists such as ourselves to draw attention to one of the Amazonian ecosystems that will be just as vital to protect if we are to limit global warming to the safer threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels: Bolivia.</p>
<h2>One of the highest carbon-emitting countries per capita</h2>
<p>I have studied the flows that contribute to deforestation in the Amazon for more than five years. Earlier this year, I met with academics, environmental NGOs, smallholder farmers, and multilateral development banks in Bolivia to learn more about their work to protect the Bolivian Amazon.</p>
<p>Bolivia is not only at the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/25/bolivia-lithium-mining-salt-flats">centre of the current international rush for lithium</a>. It is also one of the world leaders in deforestation. According to <a href="https://gfw.global/3zUFwQN">Global Forest Watch</a>, the country lost more than 3,3 million hectares of humid primary forest from 2002 to 2021 to deforestation, or the equivalent of 4 million soccer fields, with an exponential growth in deforestation rates of more than 5.5% per year over the last two decades.</p>
<p>Bolivia’s forests have also increasingly been forced to cope with a combination of drought and large wildfires. In 2020 alone, 4,5 million hectares were affected by such fires, of which more than 1 million hectares took place in protected areas (data from <a href="https://incendios.fan-bo.org/Satrifo/mapa-interactivo/">Fundación Amigos de la Naturaleza</a>) – and the deforestation trend is worsening (see Figure 1). As a result, Bolivia has placed itself at the <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.1026344/full">top of carbon-emitting countries per capita</a>, with emissions of 25 tCO2eq per person per year – more than five times higher than the global average, ahead of large economies like the United States and the United Arab Emirates.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534345/original/file-20230627-21-ufsunt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534345/original/file-20230627-21-ufsunt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534345/original/file-20230627-21-ufsunt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534345/original/file-20230627-21-ufsunt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534345/original/file-20230627-21-ufsunt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534345/original/file-20230627-21-ufsunt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534345/original/file-20230627-21-ufsunt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 1. Map of deforestation in Bolivia in the Amazon, and in the Chaco, Chicitanian and Pantanal regions, 1985-2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fundación amigos de la naturaleza (FAN), Bolivia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Accelerated deforestation might seem paradoxical in a country known internationally for its commitment to the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/transnational-environmental-law/article/living-in-harmony-with-nature-a-critical-appraisal-of-the-rights-of-mother-earth-in-bolivia/C819E1C4EE0848C3F244EFB0C200FE65">“Rights of Mother Earth”</a>. But it seems that the government has chosen to prioritize economic development based on natural resources over its promises to become stewards of Nature.</p>
<p>The accelerated loss of tropical rainforest is the result of destructive and familiar combination: increased global demand for commodities such as soy and cattle, and extractive national and regional policies with the explicit ambition to boost <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837722001739">economic growth</a> with little consideration on its environmental impact.</p>
<p>Soybean production has accelerated from <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.1026344/full">negligible levels in 1970 to almost 1.4 million hectares in 2020, and 5 million hectares deforested since 2001 is mainly used for cattle</a>. A similar trend can be observed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/power-struggle-divides-bolivia-soy-rich-santa-cruz-demands-more-clout-2022-11-21/">for the export of beef in the last years</a>, as well as for mining. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534353/original/file-20230627-17-51djxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534353/original/file-20230627-17-51djxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534353/original/file-20230627-17-51djxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534353/original/file-20230627-17-51djxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534353/original/file-20230627-17-51djxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534353/original/file-20230627-17-51djxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534353/original/file-20230627-17-51djxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534353/original/file-20230627-17-51djxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Agro-forestry field in Pando region, northern Bolivia (February 8, 2023).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Victor Galaz</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Between 2015 and 2021, the number of mining concessions in the country’s Amazon regions (La Paz, Beni and Pando) has increased from 88 to 341 while the mining area (<em>cuadriculas</em> in Spanish) have increased from 3,789 to 15,710 (+414%). According to Bolivian mining law, a <em>cuadricula</em> is a square of 500 meters per side, with a total surface area of 25 hectares, according to the Study Center for Labor and Agrarian Development (CEDLA). The rapid expansion of illegal gold mining in the Amazon powers one of the country’s <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/country/bol">largest export industries</a>. As global gold prices have increased, the industry is creating massive social and environmental challenges as well as <a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-05-06/bolivias-mercury-dilemma-the-metal-that-both-feeds-and-poisons-the-countrys-amazon-region.html">severe health threats to indigenous communities</a>.</p>
<p>This expansion is fuelled in part by generous fossil-fuel subsidies, which in turn finance the growth of the soy, cattle and mineral sector. According to 2021 data from the <a href="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Topics/Environment/energy-subsidies/fuel-subsidies-template-2022.ashx">International Monetary Fund</a> fossil-fuel subsidies consume 6,7% of Bolivia’s GDP. In addition, illegal settlements in the lowlands feed from these larger economic changes as communities transform forests into agricultural production lands through <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23802014.2022.2146182">destructive slash-and-burn techniques</a>, which increase wildfire risks.</p>
<h2>How to save the Amazon</h2>
<p>Regional collaboration to protect the Amazon took a serious hit during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. The announced revitalization of cooperation in the Amazon basin and surrounding forests through the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization offers a unique window of opportunity to end deforestation. But this opportunity will be wasted unless the following key issues are addressed.</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Pan-continental regulation</strong>: It is no secret that countries that enforce strict forest-conservation laws tend to see the most ruthless industries emigrate to less-regulated countries; experts call this phenomenon <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X17302085">“deforestation leakage”</a>. To protect the Amazon in Brazil, the international community therefore has every interest in ensuring that Bolivia is not forgotten. <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worldwide-governance-indicators">World Bank data</a> shows that Bolivia is a perfect destination for its neighbours’ predatory sectors, with much of the state’s regulation rolled back in the past 10 years.<br><br>To counter this, the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization should form a task force that directly addresses such cross-border leakage risks to protect the forests of the region, and the people who depend on them for their livelihoods. Lessons from studies of the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X17302085">effects of previous zero-deforestation policies</a>] will offer useful guidance in these ambitions. Countries should ramp up their support for cross-border supply chain transparency, provide enough resources to enforce environmental legislation on the ground, and make sure indigenous rights are properly protected.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Phasing out forest-hungry policies and industries</strong>: The case of Bolivia also highlights a general challenge that countries in the region are facing: the need to not only “scale up” green financial innovations, but also actively <a href="https://financetransformation.earth/full-report/">phase out unsustainable economic activities, harmful subsidies and policies that increase inequality</a>. <br><br>Don’t get us wrong: saying goodbye to industries like unchecked cattle ranching, and incentives such as fossil-fuel subsidies will take strong political will. But the world abounds with examples to draw inspiration from. Two include the <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/insight/just-energy-transition-partnerships">Just Energy Transition Partnership</a> that was concluded at the annual climate summit in Glasgow, COP26 and the <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/10/27/climate-fund-approves-plan-to-speed-up-coal-retirement-in-indonesia/">international support to help decarbonize coal retirement in Indonesia</a>. They show it is possible to move away from harmful industries while making sure local communities aren’t left behind.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Cleaning up the finance industry</strong>: In today’s globalized economy, large companies often rely on capital from financial institutions to conduct their operations. The financial sector has made progress in <a href="https://www.unpri.org/pri-blog/investors-must-act-now-to-tackle-deforestation-and-threats-to-indigenous-people-in-the-amazon/5985.article">mobilizing its influence</a> as owners and lenders to put pressure on industries associated with deforestation risks in the Brazilian Amazon. The sector must now mobilize to help protect the enlarged Bolivian Amazon. </p></li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01558-4">Cascading negative changes resulting from deforestation, such as disrupted hydrological cycles</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00704-w">negative health impacts</a>, and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03876-7">biodiversity loss</a> will eventually impact negatively on investments. The financial sector thus needs to support national legislation and financial regulation that shift investments away from <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.abp8622">extractive economic practices that amplify social inequalities</a>, toward new ways of protecting forests while simultaneously promoting education, health, sanitation, employment, and other development goals. Major initiatives like the United Nations’ <a href="https://www.unpri.org/">Principles for Responsible Investment</a>, pension funds in the Global North, and international development banks must work closely with countries around the Amazon basin to make sure deforestation and climate ambitions are translated into action.</p>
<p>Bolivia’s forests, and the communities that depend on their resilience for their livelihoods, are facing a perfect deforestation storm. Swift national and international action is of the essence.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was co-written with Guido Meruvia Schween, a programme officer at the Swedish Embassy in La Paz, Bolivia.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victor Galaz conducted the visit to Bolivia in his additional capacities as member of the governing board of the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida). </span></em></p>Surging deforestation in Bolivia means the country now ranks as one of the highest carbon emitters in the world.Victor Galaz, Deputy Director and Associate Professor, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064382023-05-31T20:00:12Z2023-05-31T20:00:12ZFrom Donald Trump to Danielle Smith: 4 ways populists are jeopardizing democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529348/original/file-20230531-21-ur28mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=520%2C0%2C6418%2C4629&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former U.S. president Donald Trump gives thumbs up as he watches during the first round of the LIV Golf Tournament at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Va.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1954, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1998/11/richard-hofstadters-tradition/377296/">Richard Hofstadter, the eminent American historian of modern conservatism</a>, asked a provocative question about <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/joseph-mccarthy-an-american-demagogue-who-foreshadowed-trump/2020/08/27/6d6f3c5c-dbfe-11ea-809e-b8be57ba616e_story.html">his era’s assault on progressive and left-wing ideals, known as McCarthyism</a>: Where did this extremism come from? </p>
<p>He argued in a <a href="https://theamericanscholar.org/the-pseudo-conservative-revolt/">celebrated essay</a> that even the prosperous, post-Second World War United States was not immune to the radicalism of authoritarian populism. The so-called Red Scare of the 1950s was “simply the old ultra-conservatism and the old isolationism heightened by the extraordinary pressures of the contemporary world.” </p>
<p>Seven decades later, Hofstadter’s words ring true again. Conservative movements are always fighting a rearguard action against modernity by falsely claiming to <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/07/19/borders-exclusion-and-the-populist-radical-right-meta-us/">protect society from progressives</a> who trample traditional values and sneer at the forgotten men and women who embrace them. </p>
<h2>Paranoid politics</h2>
<p>With so much money and power behind it, this paranoid style of politics — with its enemies lists, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/before-nemtsovs-assassination-a-year-of-demonization/2015/03/04/dc8f2afe-c11d-11e4-9ec2-b418f57a4a99_story.html">demonization of opposition leaders</a> and often violent language — has gone mainstream. </p>
<p>Conspiracy theories are no longer a stigma discrediting those who trade in salacious innuendo. Even mainstream politicians are now peddling them.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1658224143844646915"}"></div></p>
<p>But is there anything to fear from the red-hot rhetoric of the paranoid style of politics? Some argue these circumstances <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cars.12263">are cyclical</a>.</p>
<p>In Hofstadter’s time, after all, American conservative politics turned away from fringe radicalism following the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963. The following year, Lyndon Johnson <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1964">defeated right-wing Republican insurgent, Barry Goldwater</a> in one of the largest landslides in U.S. history.</p>
<p>But the crisis we face today is bigger in scale <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/24/books/review/dark-money-by-jane-mayer.html">and scope</a>. It’s been whipped to a frenzy by political leaders who seek to profit from the chaos that it incites via social media.</p>
<p>Populism was supposed to bring government closer to the people, but it actually places the levers of power <a href="https://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2023/01/the-shill-of-the-people/">squarely in the hands of authoritarians</a>. Here are four ways populism has turned poisonous and poses existential threats to democracy:</p>
<h2>1. The shrinking middle ground</h2>
<p>Democracy without compromise erodes popular sovereignty by fragmenting the electorate and eliminating meaningful compromise.</p>
<p>We are now in a world of zero-sum political contests, with a shrinking <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/04/us-extremism-portland-george-floyd-protests-january-6/673088/">middle ground</a>. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-ucp-proposes-referendums-for-all-tax-increases/">Conservative parties often force extreme referendums</a> to maintain their grip on a deeply divided electorate. </p>
<p>Election campaigns have become dangerous contests over <a href="https://www.populismstudies.org/Vocabulary/culture-war/">wedge issues</a> designed to deepen cultural divisions using social media.</p>
<p>We saw this with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-020-00208-y">Brexit as Boris Johnson and other populists stoked fears about immigration and Europeans</a>. Donald Trump did it well <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/08/26/fact-check-and-review-of-trump-immigration-policy/">with attacks on immigrants.</a> Republicans are now doubling down on the abortion issue, even though they’re facing pushback from <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/2nd-abortion-regulation-bill-vetoed-by-kansas-gov-laura-kelly">some state legislatures and governors</a>.</p>
<p>In Canada, Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith, whose United Conservative Party has been newly re-elected with a majority, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/opinion-ndp-notley-ucp-smith-attack-ads-1.6749431">has focused on demonizing her opponents</a> and has <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-government-attempts-clarification-as-ndp-calls-sovereignty-act-anti-democratic">engaged in anti-democratic conduct</a> in her months as premier.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-itself-is-on-the-ballot-in-albertas-upcoming-election-203817">Democracy itself is on the ballot in Alberta's upcoming election</a>
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<h2>2. The working class isn’t benefiting</h2>
<p>Identity politics isn’t empowering working people because the politics of revenge doesn’t fix structural problems. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, conservative parties around the world are marketing themselves as parties of the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/03/working-class-white-voters-gop-house-agenda/673500/">working class</a>. </p>
<p>Populists recognize the <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/education-polarization-diploma-divide-democratic-party-working-class.html">working class is essential</a> to their success at the national level because of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/17/opinion/education-american-politics.html">“diploma divide</a>” that now separates right and left. </p>
<p>There is a strong correlation between lacking a college diploma and supporting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/14/who-are-national-conservatives-and-what-do-they-want">nationalist conservative movements</a> at election time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sea of university graduates in their convocation robes and caps inside an auditorium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graduates listen during a convocation ceremony at Simon Fraser University, in Burnaby, B.C., in May 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It used to be that working people recognized education as a path to prosperity. But <a href="https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for-college/articles/see-20-years-of-tuition-growth-at-national-universities">massive tuition increases in the U.S.</a>, in particular, have betrayed the promise of universal access to a college degree.</p>
<p>Tuition fees are also heading in the wrong direction in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/education-36150276">the U.K., Canada and Australia</a>. Education now reinforces class divisions rather than breaking down barriers to a better life.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-freedom-convoy-protesters-are-a-textbook-case-of-aggrieved-entitlement-176791">The 'freedom convoy' protesters are a textbook case of 'aggrieved entitlement'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. The rich and powerful direct the chaos</h2>
<p>Populism was supposed to empower people outside the corridors of power, but talk of <a href="https://buffalonews.com/news/liberal-elites-are-at-war-with-u-s-tradition-of-moral-values/article_ba36235a-8518-5d32-8b6f-b392e1083ccf.html">retribution against liberal elites</a> normalizes calls for political violence — always a bad thing.</p>
<p>In a war of all against all, it’s not the wealthy who lose. It’s ordinary, hard-working citizens. </p>
<p>Furthermore, once a lust for vengeance takes hold in the general public, it’s almost always being directed by elites with money and power who benefit financially or politically from the chaos.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wearing a 'team trump' cowboy hat carries an american flag. Behind her rioters confront police wearing riot gear." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Violent protesters loyal to Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier at the Capitol in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Minchillo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Assaults on the rule of law</h2>
<p>Authoritarian leaders have gained unprecedented <a href="https://www.oecd-forum.org/posts/spin-dictators-the-changing-face-of-tyranny-in-the-21st-century">institutional legitimacy</a> by building successful movements based on fantasies of blood and soil. The paranoid style of politics has entered a new phase with a full-spectrum assault on the rule of law — from inside government. </p>
<p>Populists are lying when they argue they want to empower the rest of us by divesting judges of their authority to oversee democracy. They really want to breach the strongest constitutional barrier against authoritarianism. </p>
<p>Look at the situation in Israel, where Benjamin Netanyahu’s extremist coalition seeks to destroy judicial checks and balances and allow the country’s parliament to <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-in-weekend-interview-overhaul-necessary-as-supreme-court-too-powerful/">overrule its Supreme Court</a>, a move that would ease the prime minister’s legal woes.</p>
<p>Netanyahu has been charged with <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/4-corruption-scandals-swirling-around-benjamin-netanyahu-explained">corruption and influence peddling.</a> </p>
<p>Trump’s attempts to undermine the legitimacy of judges are equally self-serving. As he runs again for president, he’s already telegraphing his violent desires, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-pardon-large-portion-jan-6-rioters-rcna83873">promising pardons for the Jan. 6 insurrectionists.</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sea of blue and white Israeli flags during a protest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Israelis protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul plan outside the parliament in Jerusalem in March 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The road ahead for populists</h2>
<p>The political dial is already spinning. The defeats of Trump and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro don’t represent <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wnet/preserving-democracy/video/martin-wolf-the-crisis-of-democratic-capitalism/">absolute rejections</a> of their movements.</p>
<p>Despite an <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/30/politics/donald-trump-indictment/index.html">indictment for alleged financial crime</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/09/1175071486/jury-finds-trump-liable-for-sexual-abuse-in-e-jean-carrolls-civil-case">being found liable for sexual abuse in a civil case</a>, Trump is still the 2024 front-runner.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-populism-has-an-enduring-and-ominous-appeal-199065">Why populism has an enduring and ominous appeal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We can’t count on an easy institutional fix, like a grand electoral coalition to push the populists off the ballot. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A grey-haired round-faced man in a suit waves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban greets cheering supporters during an election night rally in Budapest, Hungary in April 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Petr David Josek)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Opponents of Hungary’s Viktor Orban formed a united front to oppose him in the country’s 2022 elections. But Orban was re-elected in a vote <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how-viktor-orban-wins/">widely derided</a> as free but not fair. </p>
<p>Opposing coalitions are an uncertain strategy in most cases, and they don’t work at all in two-party systems. There is in fact no obvious electoral strategy for defeating populism, especially now that the far right has hacked the system.</p>
<h2>Red lights flashing</h2>
<p>We can no longer view elections as contests between the centre-right and centre-left in which undecided voters make the difference between victory and defeat. Nor can we count on the right to step back from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/opinion/democracy-authoritarianism-trump.html">abyss of culture wars</a>. We can’t even say for certain that the populism will recede in the usual cyclical manner.</p>
<p>Only decisive rejection can force the right to abandon anger and grievance, but voters are not yet turning their backs on the paranoid populists. It will take a lot of strategic ingenuity to beat them. And it will get harder to do so as they rig the game with rules designed to disenfranchise people who are young, poor or racialized. </p>
<p>All citizens can do is offer is constant, concerted pushback against the many big lies told by populists. It’s never enough, but for the time being, it’s the only way forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It will take a lot of strategic ingenuity to fight the rise of populism. And it will get harder to do so as politicians rig the game with rules designed to reduce voting.Daniel Drache, Professor emeritus, Department of Politics, York University, CanadaMarc D. Froese, Professor of Political Science and Founding Director, International Studies Program, Burman UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041832023-04-27T20:17:48Z2023-04-27T20:17:48ZFriday essay: Stan Grant on how tyrants use the language of germ warfare – and COVID has enabled them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522488/original/file-20230424-22-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C3020%2C2269&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Uighur woman protests before a group of paramilitary police in western China's Xinjiang region.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ng Han Guan/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is 2019. There is a virus lurking in China. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is warning that if it is not contained, it could infect the entire country. It could turn the country upside down. Tear at the social fabric. The CCP’s dream of harmony cannot withstand this. So they tell their people: this must be wiped out. Memories are too fresh in China of what happens when things spiral out of control.</p>
<p>China is a nation that barely hangs together. Throughout time, empires have risen and fallen. Bloodshed beyond imagining – on a scale almost unseen in human history – marks each turn in China’s fate. </p>
<p>The hundred years between the mid-19th century and the Communist Revolution in 1949 were brutal. The Opium Wars with Britain, the fall of the Qing, the Taiping Rebellion, the Boxer Rebellion, the civil war between nationalists and communists, the Japanese occupation – tens of millions were slaughtered.</p>
<p>The CCP knows it should fear its own. It knows what happens when people rise up. The party seeks stability, but stability can only come with force and threats. Nothing can be tolerated that strays too far from the reach of the party.</p>
<p>Now, a virus is loose. In 2019, the world is not watching. Not really. Some warn of what is happening, what is to come. But who listens? It is too far away. We are trading with China and we grow rich as China grows rich.</p>
<p>So, the Communist Party goes to work in secret. It is rounding up people infected with the virus. It is locking them away in secret facilities. Prisons. Isolating them. Choking off the virus at its source. Nothing short of elimination will do.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-who-are-the-uyghurs-and-why-is-the-chinese-government-detaining-them-111843">Explainer: who are the Uyghurs and why is the Chinese government detaining them?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>An ideological virus</h2>
<p>This virus has a name. Uighur. Many, if not most, in the West cannot spell it. Nor can they pronounce it. Uighurs. Muslims. A people in the outer western regions of this vast country. People who have been yearning to be free. Who speak their own language. Practise their culture. Pray to their god.</p>
<p>They are a virus. At least, that’s what the CCP calls them.</p>
<p>The Communist Party transmits “health warnings”. As reported by Sigal Samuel <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/%2008/china-pathologizing-uighur-muslims-mental-illness/568525/">in The Atlantic</a>, and <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/infected-08082018173807.html">translated</a> by Radio Free Asia, it aims them at Uighurs via WeChat, a popular social media platform in China:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Members of the public who have been chosen for re-education have been infected by an ideological illness. They have been infected with religious extremism and violent terrorist ideology, and therefore they must seek treatment from a hospital as an inpatient […] The religious extremist ideology is a type of poisonous medicine, which confuses the mind of the people […] If we do not eradicate religious extremism at its roots, the violent terrorist incidents will grow and spread all over like an incurable malignant tumour. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In 2018, Human Rights Watch released a report, titled <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2018/09/10/eradicating-ideological-viruses/chinas-campaign-repression-against-xinjiangs">Eradicating Ideological Viruses</a>. The warnings are there. Even if the world is slow to wake to them. The report says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Perhaps the most innovative – and disturbing – of the repressive measures in Xinjiang is the government’s use of high-tech mass surveillance systems. Xinjiang authorities conduct compulsory mass collection of biometric data, such as voice samples and DNA, and use artificial intelligence and big data to identify, profile and track everyone in Xinjiang. <br></p>
<p>The authorities have envisioned these systems as a series of “filters”, picking out people with certain behaviour or characteristics that they believe indicate a threat to the Communist Party’s rule in Xinjiang. These systems have also enabled authorities to implement fine-grained control, subjecting people to differentiated restrictions depending on their perceived levels of “trustworthiness”. </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522492/original/file-20230424-14-d7xzj9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Uighur Abudwaris Ablimit points to a photo of his brother during a gathering to raise awareness about loved ones who have disappeared in China’s far west.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christina Larson/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Note the language. Biometric data. Voice sampling. DNA. This is ideological and it is biological. People are treated as viruses that transmit illness. If not stopped, they will threaten us all, is the message.</p>
<p>Human Rights Watch says in the name of stability and security, authorities will “strike at” those deemed terrorists and extremists, to rid the country of the “problematic ideas” of Turkic Muslims. Not just Muslims, but anyone not expressing the majority ethnic Han identity. As Human Rights Watch says: “Authorities insist that such beliefs and affinities must be ‘corrected’ or ‘eradicated’.”</p>
<p>This is not new. What the CCP is doing is what other tyrannical regimes have done. They seek to create what’s been called a “harmony of souls”. They want nothing less than to produce the perfect, subdued, sublimated human. Compliant. Passive. </p>
<p>In the words of Joseph Stalin: “The production of souls is more important than the production of tanks.” Historian Timothy Snyder says the Nazi and Soviet regimes turned people into numbers. And tyrants everywhere have used the language of germ warfare. They define their enemies as diseases or infections and they seek to inoculate their own societies.</p>
<p>Authoritarian regimes seek to sterilise and “purify” society. Listen to them.</p>
<p>Stalin’s henchman <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vyacheslav-Molotov">Vyacheslav Molotov</a> spoke of purging or assassinating people who “had to be isolated” or, he said, they “would spread all kinds of complaints, and society would have been infected”.</p>
<p>The architect of Hitler’s Holocaust, Heinrich Himmler, in sending millions to the gas chambers, <a href="https://www.museumoftolerance.com/education/teacher-resources/holocaust-resources/what-is-holocaust-denial.html">said</a> he was exterminating “a bacterium because we do not want in the end to be infected by a bacterium and die of it”. He said: “I will not see so much as a small area of sepsis appear here or gain a hold. Wherever it may form, we will cauterise it.”</p>
<p>And then there is Adolf Hitler, who compared himself to the famed German microbiologist <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/1905/koch/biographical/">Robert Koch</a> who found the bacillus of tuberculosis. Hitler said, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I discovered the Jews as the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/27387/chapter-abstract/197176732">bacillus and ferment</a> of all social decomposition. And I have proved one thing: that a state can live without Jews.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>To Hitler, Jewish people were “no longer human beings”. He described the Holocaust as a “surgical task”, “otherwise Europe will perish through the Jewish disease”.</p>
<p>It is no mistake these regimes use the language of virus, disease and contamination. Just as a virus is to be eradicated, so too people are to be removed, eliminated or exterminated. These attitudes do not belong to a time past. There are leaders today who exploit the same fears, who focus on difference and create division using the same language of disease.</p>
<p>Remember what Donald Trump <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/06/donald-trump-mexican-immigrants-tremendous-infectious-disease">said</a> of Mexican immigrants? That they are responsible for “tremendous infectious diseases pouring across the border”.</p>
<p>And in China, the Communist Party <a href="https://theconversation.com/leaked-documents-on-uighur-detention-camps-in-china-an-expert-explains-the-key-revelations-127221">has locked up</a> a million Uighur Muslims in “re-education camps”, where human rights groups say they are brainwashed with Communist Party ideology. A virus to be eradicated.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/un-report-on-chinas-abuse-of-uyghurs-is-stronger-than-expected-but-missing-a-vital-word-genocide-189917">UN report on China's abuse of Uyghurs is stronger than expected but missing a vital word: genocide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Virus of tyranny</h2>
<p>The virus of tyranny has haunted our world. Albert Camus warned us of this in his novel <a href="https://theconversation.com/guide-to-the-classics-albert-camus-the-plague-134244">The Plague</a>: the story of a rat-borne disease that overruns an entire city. His was a bleak vision of death and fear, of a city sealed off and a people locked down, then shot when they tried to escape. </p>
<p>Written in 1947, just two years after World War II, when the West was still celebrating the victory of freedom, Camus’s plague is an allegory of authoritarianism.</p>
<p>Camus wanted to tell us of the courage that swells within us, that when the plague was at its worst, brave people fought against it. But he cautioned us, too, that the plague can return. It is “a bacillus that never dies or disappears for good”, but bides its time “slumbering in furniture and linen”. It waits patiently “in bedrooms, cellars; trunks, handkerchiefs, old papers”, until one day it will rouse again. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522493/original/file-20230424-16-u9uicp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Engraving of a plague doctor in 17th-century Rome.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Furst/Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In coronavirus, tyranny may have found the perfect host: a fearful population and all-powerful government. French philosopher Michel Foucault long ago made the link between the plagues of the 17th century and authoritarian control. </p>
<p>Behind state-imposed discipline, <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/discipline-and-punish-9780241386019">he wrote</a>, “can be read the haunting memory of contagions”: not just the memory of a virus but of rebellion, crime, all forms of social disorder, where people “appear and disappear, live and die”. It is the state that brings order to the fear: “everyone locked up in his cage, everyone at his window, answering to his name and showing himself when asked”. </p>
<p>In the response to the plague, Foucault saw the forerunner of the modern prison: the panopticon; the all-seeing eye.</p>
<p>The plague-stricken village, <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/discipline-and-punish-9780241386019">wrote Foucault</a>, is </p>
<blockquote>
<p>traversed throughout with hierarchy, surveillance, observation, writing; the town immobilised by the functioning of an extensive power that bears in a distinct way over all individual bodies – this is the utopia of the perfectly governed city.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The coronavirus shutdowns remind us freedom is the province of the state. The crisis has centralised government control. Around the world, governments have used physical and biological surveillance to control the pandemic. To eradicate the virus.</p>
<p>We have all become, to varying degrees, a little bit like China.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/guide-to-the-classics-albert-camus-the-plague-134244">Guide to the Classics: Albert Camus' The Plague</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A strange illness in Wuhan</h2>
<p>Coronavirus emerges out of China in the dying months of 2019. I remember reporting on it. A strange illness is being detected in the city of Wuhan. Dozens of people are being treated for pneumonia-like symptoms. In January 2020, there is the <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19">first reported death</a>. Then quickly, deaths in Europe, the United States, South Korea, Japan, Thailand.</p>
<p>We are still so blasé. It feels so far away. We have seen this before, haven’t we? SARS, swine flu, Ebola. They come and they go. Life goes on. We go to the beach. We get on planes. We have parties. And if we have a cough or feel a bit under the weather, we most likely still go to work.</p>
<p>We don’t realise what is happening. I am <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/2020-24-02/11983216">on ABC’s Q+A program</a> in February 2020. Footage is shown of lockdown in Wuhan. People are barricaded in their apartments while police forcibly remove and restrain. The audience is appalled.</p>
<p>It couldn’t happen here, could it? An epidemiologist on the panel says, actually, yes. We have laws to allow for just these extreme emergency measures. Surely though, we agree, it isn’t likely.</p>
<p>On the same program is China’s deputy ambassador to Australia, Wang Xining. Minister Wang, as he is known, is an old acquaintance. A sparring partner. When I was based in China for CNN, he was my minder. He was appointed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to watch everything that I did.</p>
<p>In China I was arrested and detained, taken to Chinese police cells for doing stories the authorities did not approve of. I was, on several occasions, physically attacked and beaten. My family was under constant surveillance. Now the man responsible was sitting next to me in an ABC studio.</p>
<p>In the audience, a Uighur man asks a question. He was separated from his wife and child. He had come to Australia ahead of them, hoping to settle and secure visas so they could follow. He didn’t know where they were. He had family in the Chinese “re-education” camps. He was clearly worried.</p>
<p>Minster Wang defends the China COVID lockdown. And he defends the lockdown – soon to be called the genocide – of the Uighurs.</p>
<p>In this moment were twinned the two crises – the two “viruses” – threatening our world. COVID-19 threatened our health. Soon, we would indeed follow China’s lead and introduce lockdowns. And the virus of tyranny was spreading.</p>
<p>In 2020, as COVID crossed borders, so, too, did tyranny. Liberal democracy was in retreat. Freedom House, which measures the health of democracy, <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2021/democracy-under-siege">now counted</a> 15 straight years of democratic decline. From the post–Cold War boom, freedom was now being crushed.</p>
<p>Within democracies, too, people were falling under the sway of autocrats and demagogues. This had been a slow burn. Growing inequality, war-fuelled refugee crises and a blowback against globalisation had eroded trust. The poor and left-behind felt abandoned.</p>
<p>The devil dances in empty pockets. From the early 2000s, anti-immigration attitudes grew. Racial division became even more stark. Far-right parties made a comeback in Europe as barbed wire went back up on borders. People wanted their countries back and they were primed for populists. Türkiye’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-20-year-rule-of-recep-tayyip-erdogan-has-transformed-turkey-188211">Recep Tayyip Erdoğan</a>, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, India’s
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-pressure-builds-on-indias-narendra-modi-is-his-government-trying-to-silence-its-critics-159799">Narendra Modi</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-philippines-is-set-for-a-fiery-election-even-without-any-dutertes-at-least-for-now-169535">Rodrigo Duterte</a> in the Philippines, Brazil’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-now-for-brazil-president-lula-strengthened-but-bolsonaro-supporters-wont-go-quietly-197530">Jair Bolsonaro</a> – all would come to power. Each spouted easy solutions to complex problems. Each divided to conquer.</p>
<p>Into the picture came a political circus act. A Manhattan real estate billionaire and reality television star. Donald Trump styled himself as the anti-politician. He promised to “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-drain-the-swamp/2020/10/24/52c7682c-0a5a-11eb-9be6-cf25fb429f1a_story.html">drain the swamp</a>” and “make America great again”. Eight years of the first Black president of the United States, Barack Obama, ended in 2016 <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-victory-will-mean-the-end-of-us-soft-power-68654">with the election</a> of a man who exploited racism.</p>
<p>To populists, COVID-19 initially was a boon. They seized on it to strengthen their grip on their countries. This was the state of the world in 2020, when the virus took hold. This was a perfect storm. A virus that robbed us of our freedom just as democracy was imploding and freedom was in retreat. And China was proudly boasting that its authoritarianism was ascendant.</p>
<p>If the 20th century was a triumph of democracy, the 21st century, to China’s Xi Jinping, would crown the China dream.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kafkaesque-true-stories-of-ordinary-people-inside-the-first-days-of-covid-19-in-wuhan-china-180039">'Kafkaesque' true stories of ordinary people: inside the first days of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Plagues, political repression and violence</h2>
<p>Plagues have historically been a harbinger of political repression and violence. The Spanish flu after World War I <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/1918-flu-pandemic-boosted-support-for-the-nazis-fed-study-claims.html">contributed to</a> the rise of the extreme right in Germany. The Black Death in the 14th century <a href="https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/the-black-death">unleashed violence</a> against Jews.</p>
<p>Sydney University Professor of Jurisprudence Wojciech Sadurski, in his book <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/pandemic-of-populists/E75407A3309F868636BBA65F9F1ED783">A Pandemic of Populists</a>, says COVID has been a “powerful accelerator of many of the pre-existing trends, both negative and positive, in business, culture and politics”. </p>
<p>Populist leaders declared states of emergency and, as Sadurski writes, pushed them “well beyond the limits of the necessary”. Viktor Orbán <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-europe/how-viktor-orban-used-the-coronavirus-to-seize-more-power">set aside parliament</a>. He was a one-man government. People critical of him could be arrested. In <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation_in_the_Philippines">the Philippines</a>, as <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/17/fake-news-real-arrests/">in India</a>, police were given powers to detain anyone “spreading misinformation” or inciting mistrust.</p>
<p>Sadurski points out that, in most cases, these authoritarian leaders used militaristic language. Fighting COVID was a war. The people were conscripted.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522499/original/file-20230424-20-u9uicp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán set aside parliament and became a one-man government during COVID. He’s pictured here with medical supplies flown from China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tomas Kovacs/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Xi Jinping is not a populist leader. He doesn’t seek legitimacy at the ballot box. He is an authoritarian. And he believes his system is better. To Xi, the battle against coronavirus is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/02/13/805760466/china-declares-peoples-war-on-covid-19-including-reporting-family-and-friends">also a war</a>: a “people’s war”.</p>
<p>It has been a war without end. Xi cannot allow the virus to win. Long after lockdowns passed elsewhere, Xi continued to keep a stranglehold on COVID flares. It has weakened the economy. It is straining nerves. People are angry. There have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/protests-against-strict-covid-zero-policy-are-sweeping-china-its-anyones-guess-what-happens-now-195442">protests</a>. Some are even calling for Xi to go.</p>
<p>But Xi has strengthened his grip. By <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/26/asia/china-xi-jinping-president-intl/index.html">altering the constitution</a> and scrapping two-term presidential limits, he is now leader for life. Under cover of fighting COVID, he has used <a href="https://melbourneasiareview.edu.au/covid-19-and-the-rise-of-the-surveillance-state-in-china/">enhanced surveillance</a> and tracking technology to peer into every part of people’s lives. The COVID crackdown <a href="https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00829/">coincided</a> with crushing democracy in Hong Kong. He has arrested dissidents. Silenced rivals. He is <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/china-ready-fight-after-3-days-large-scale/story?id=98494152#:%7E:text=TAIPEI%2C%20Taiwan%20%2D%2D%20China's,McCarthy%20in%20the%20United%20States.">threatening</a> war on Taiwan.</p>
<p>And Uighurs remain a target. Still a “virus” to be eliminated.</p>
<h2>A hinge point of history</h2>
<p>We are at a hinge point of history. Thirty years after the end of the Cold War, there is <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/03/06/sliding-toward-a-new-cold-war">talk</a> of Cold War 2.0. The United States is staring down a new rival: China. We are witnessing a return of great power rivalry. It is a supercharged great power rivalry. </p>
<p>China is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-soviet-union-containment-polarization-foreign-policy-11639526097">more powerful</a> today than the Soviet Union was then, and the United States is unquestionably diminished. America is politically fractured, it is deeply divided along racial and class lines; it has <a href="https://theconversation.com/american-exceptionalism-the-poison-that-cannot-protect-its-children-from-violent-death-184045">an epidemic</a> of gun violence and it has been devastated by coronavirus.</p>
<p>Donald Trump thought he was bigger than COVID. He was slow to act, he was dismissive and his populism was eventually revealed as reckless. Yes, he fast-tracked vaccine research and production. But he was a master of mixed messaging and so much damage was done. At the time of writing, in the United States there have been more than <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/28/us-records-100-million-covid-cases-but-more-than-200-million-americans-have-probably-had-it.html#:%7E:text=The%20U.S.%20has%20officially%20recorded,even%20more%20difficult%20to%20control.">100 million cases</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/15/1-million-us-covid-deaths-effects">one million deaths</a>. The only country to reach that number. Trump lost office.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522501/original/file-20230424-22-paq5g6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump thought he was bigger than COVID – and lost office.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">zz/Dennis Van Tine/STAR MAX/IPx/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By contrast, Xi Jinping is entrenched in power. The country where COVID first emerged is the world’s biggest engine of economic growth. It is on track <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/12/06/china-and-india-will-overtake-us-economically-by-2075-goldman-sachs-economists-say/?sh=3f8d5a358ea9">to usurp the United States</a> as the single biggest economy in the world. It is extending its influence and economic reach via the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdf">Belt and Road Initiative</a>, the biggest investment and infrastructure program the world has ever seen.</p>
<p>Xi is building an army to match his economic might. And he is leading the way on artificial intelligence research. The numbers tell the story. In the 20 years between 1997 and 2017, China’s global share of research papers <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/china-rises-first-place-most-cited-papers">increased</a> from just over 4 per cent to nearly 28 per cent. And what is it focusing on? Speech and image recognition. The Chinese Communist Party can track anyone, anywhere, anytime.</p>
<p>Technology was meant to liberate us. Some saw the death knell for authoritarian regimes. How can you control the internet? But China has. Cyberspace has become a tool of tyranny. China has taken the digital age and put it in service of genocide.</p>
<p>There are lessons here for journalists. Our job is not to simply report events, it is to connect them. To join the dots. To reveal the big forces at play in our world. We missed this opportunity.</p>
<p>We cannot understand the COVID pandemic and its impact without understanding the currents shaping our world. COVID emerged out of China at a time when Xi Jinping had his eyes on global supremacy. He had shown how far he would be prepared to go to “harmonise” the nation. He had trialled his lockdown measures on what he callously called the “virus” of the Uighurs. </p>
<p>Around the world, democracy was in retreat and authoritarianism on the march. And now a virus was spreading that would attack the liberal democratic West where it believed it was strongest: its freedom.</p>
<p>Media can so easily be overwhelmed by events. One of the most common failings – particularly of television – is to report what we see, not what it means. Images can drive coverage. And images of people in white suits locking down entire cities obscured what was even more important. COVID was a 21st-century virus; a virus of a globalised world, of high-speed travel and borderless trade. It was also a virus of an increasingly authoritarian world.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=917&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522533/original/file-20230424-20-ydq9i6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1153&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic was a stress test. It revealed and accelerated fault lines already there. Populists were stripped bare. Their slogans, easy answers and arrogance meant they were slow to act. Millions died who might otherwise have lived. In strong democracies where there is trust in science and authority, countries emerged stronger. Yet they, too, walked a fine line between surrendering liberty and saving lives.</p>
<p>In China, Xi Jinping believes the People’s War is <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/china-declares-victory-over-both-the-coronavirus-and-critics-of-the-communist-party-at-the-biggest-political-event-of-the-year">a victory</a> for the Communist Party. The Party – the all-seeing eye – can control everything. It sits at the heart of everything. Xi believes he is the fulfilment of prophecy. The man who follows the great leaders, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. The one who delivers on China’s greatness.</p>
<p>Xi walks a tightrope, too. He has strained the nation to breaking point. The relentless, cruel lockdowns have slowed the economy and crushed the spirit of Chinese people. And they are angry and rising. China, like the rest of the world, is also reaching a tipping point.</p>
<p>In December 2022, Xi felt the pressure from the Chinese people, following mass demonstrations and unrest, and lifted the lockdowns abruptly. COVID quickly ran rampant. However, though the COVID lockdowns have ended, the Uighurs continue to suffer.</p>
<p>The virus of tyranny sleeps within democracy, too. It has always been in our bloodstream. China has edged us, the democracies, closer to what political scientist Vladimir Tismaneanu <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520282209/the-devil-in-history">has called</a> “the age of total administration and inescapable alienation”.</p>
<p>The COVID pandemic has passed, at least as a political crisis. Our minds are turned now to <a href="https://theconversation.com/essentialising-russia-wont-end-the-war-against-ukraine-might-real-and-credible-force-be-the-answer-195938">war in Ukraine</a> and economic strife. But journalists must remember that, as in contagions past, COVID will shape us. It leaves behind the trace of tyranny. And that is the true virus. The virus that will not die.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This is an edited extract from <a href="https://publishing.monash.edu/product/pandemedia/">Panemedia: How Covid Changed Journalism</a> (Monash University Press).</em></p>
<p><em>This essay was originally written in November 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stan Grant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s Xi Xinping had trialled his COVID lockdown measures on what he callously called the ‘virus’ of the Uighurs, writes Stan Grant. COVID lockdowns are now over, but the trace of tyranny remains.Stan Grant, Vice Chancellors Chair Australian/Indigenous Belonging, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2006912023-03-22T12:38:29Z2023-03-22T12:38:29ZThe Amazon is not safe under Brazil’s new president – a roads plan could push it past its breaking point<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516477/original/file-20230320-2823-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=78%2C365%2C3071%2C1950&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fires are often set to clear land near roads in the Amazon.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-aerial-view-the-red-dust-of-the-br230-highway-known-news-photo/1166452675">Johannes Myburgh / AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Conservationists <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-cheered-new-climate-policies-after-brazil-election-2022-10-31/">breathed a sigh of relief</a> when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential election in the fall of 2022. His predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03038-3">opened large parts of the Amazon region to business</a> by crippling enforcement of environmental laws and turning <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">a blind eye to land grabbing</a>. It should come as no surprise that deforestation showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03038-3">a sharp uptick</a>.</p>
<p>However, while Lula oversaw a more than <a href="http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/dashboard/deforestation/biomes/legal_amazon/rates">70% drop in deforestation</a> during his first run as president in the early 2000s, the rainforest’s future remains deeply uncertain. </p>
<p>That’s in part because Brazilian administrations, whether of the right or left, have all promoted an ambitious project to boost exports and the economy called the Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure of South America, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12610">or IIRSA</a>.</p>
<p>The initiative focuses on new roads, dams and industry that can threaten the region’s fragile rainforest ecosystem – and harm the world’s climate in the process.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trucks are lined up on a road bending between a burned area and trees, with a smaller road winding off to the side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trucks along the BR163 highway, a major transport route that has contributed to deforestation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-view-of-trucks-queueing-along-the-br163-highway-in-news-photo/1174358903">Nelson Almeida / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The problem with infrastructure in the forest</h2>
<p>At first glance, IIRSA might sound like progress. Its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.009">goal is to improve</a> Amazonia’s economy by developing its resources and establishing better access to global markets. To accomplish this, the initiative plans to rehabilitate and extend the existing highway system and build dams, ports, industrial waterways and railroads.</p>
<p>However, evidence from my research in the Amazon over the past 30 years and by other scientists shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00502.x">new roads lead to more deforestation</a>, putting extreme pressure on the rainforest. Outside of protected areas, nearly 95% of all deforestation occurs within <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.07.004">3.4 miles (5.5 kilometers) of a road</a> or less than two-thirds of a mile (1 km) from a river. </p>
<p>Deforestation <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1182108">rates fell</a> during Lula’s first presidency, primarily because Brazil <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024010">expanded its protected areas program</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.06.026">enforced environmental laws</a>. However, deforestation began to rise again during the administration of his protégé, President Dilma Rousseff. </p>
<p><iframe id="KG9l7" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KG9l7/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Both Lula and Rousseff furthered the IIRSA agenda by building dams on the Madeira River and <a href="https://theconversation.com/satellites-over-the-amazon-capture-the-choking-of-the-house-of-god-by-the-belo-monte-dam-they-can-help-find-solutions-too-182012">on the Xingu River</a>, where the Belo Monte dam diverted streamflow <a href="https://theconversation.com/satellites-over-the-amazon-capture-the-choking-of-the-house-of-god-by-the-belo-monte-dam-they-can-help-find-solutions-too-182012">vital to the survival of Indigenous communities</a>. </p>
<p>They also downsized protected areas to make way for their projects. Rousseff even <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/43964662.pdf">downsized Amazon National Park</a>, the first such park in Amazonia. In all, 181 square miles (469 square kilometers) were removed, close to 5% of the total area. The most scenic park landscape along the Tapajos River shoreline was taken to make way for dam construction. </p>
<p>Now back in office, Lula has signaled his approval of a key IIRSA project: the <a href="https://amazonasreporter.com.br/2023/02/com-articulacao-do-governador-wilson-lima-demandas-do-amazonas-sao-prioridade-no-plano-de-100-dias-do-governo-federal/">revitalization of BR-319</a>, a federal highway between Porto Velho and Manaus.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An animation shows primarily the highway in 2000 but deforestation quickly expanding off of it over the following years." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite images from 2000 to 2019 show how deforestation spread out from Highway BR-163 over 10 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145888/making-sense-of-amazon-deforestation-patterns">Lauren Dauphin/NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If this project is completed, it will open the central Amazon basin <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01718-y">to even more deforestation</a>.</p>
<p>I believe this should cause alarm. Research shows too much deforestation could push the forest <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2373566X.2022.2132978">over a tipping point</a> from which it can’t recover. No one knows exactly where the line is, but the vast Amazon that people picture today with its extraordinary biodiversity and dense forests would be no more. Such a catastrophe once seemed the bad dream of doomsayers, but there is mounting evidence that the forest is in trouble.</p>
<h2>The Amazonian tipping point</h2>
<p>The tropical rainforest sustains itself by <a href="https://leaf.leeds.ac.uk/news/recycle-rain-models/">recycling rain</a> to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration, which makes more moisture available. Rainfall recycling <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2340">accounts for about 50%</a> of the basin’s precipitation today.</p>
<p>Too much deforestation could leave too little rainfall recycling to sustain the forest.</p>
<p>Scientists initially estimated the tipping point would occur <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.003">once about 40%</a> of the Amazon was deforested. That estimate has slipped downward over time given the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-brazils-rainforests-the-worst-fires-are-likely-still-to-come-122840">intensification of fires</a> and the onset of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00228">observable climate change in the basin itself</a>. Moreover, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01287-8">the forest shows diminishing resilience</a>, meaning it is less able to recover from climate extremes. Scientists have already observed widespread <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14413">shifts to more drought-tolerant tree species</a>.</p>
<p>Given the evidence, scientists have revised the tipping point to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2340">deforestation as low as 20% to 25%</a>. Even if only a fifth of the forest is lost, the remainder could quickly degrade into an ecosystem of fire-adapted grasses and shrubby trees that look nothing like the massive ones native to the rainforest. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/c4-KpR1HrNs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NASA satellite images show the expansion of deforestation as roads are built in the Amazon.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Deforestation across all the Amazonian nations now stands <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.009">at a little over 16%</a>. In my view, this is far too close for comfort, especially with the momentum of the IIRSA program.</p>
<h2>More than one tipping point?</h2>
<p>The deforestation problem isn’t the only pressure on the forest – the Amazon is also dealing with the heat and drought of global warming. </p>
<p>Evidence suggests that global climate change may be enough to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105">push large parts of the rainforest to the brink</a>. One concern is that the dry season is getting longer, a shift that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302584110">appears to be driven by global warming</a>. This affects annual precipitation by reducing the number of rainy days and makes fire more damaging by extending the season when trees can easily burn.</p>
<p>Currently, dry season lengthening is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302584110">most pronounced in the Southern Basin</a>. However, changes in the southern rainfall pattern can reduce precipitation in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41489">wettest parts of the basin to the west</a>. One estimate suggests dry season lengthening <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2021.1842711">could cause a tipping point transition by 2064</a>.</p>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>Averting Amazonia’s looming tipping point catastrophe will require effort by the global community. In the past, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1248525">Brazil has controlled deforestation</a> through its forest code and by designating protected areas. </p>
<p>To step back from the brink, Lula would have to begin enforcing the forest code again, which limits deforestation on private property. He would also have to persuade the Brazilian Congress to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">stop creating incentives for land grabs</a> – the taking of public land for private uses. </p>
<p>Although Lula would have a difficult time reclaiming already grabbed land, expanding protected areas could reduce deforestation. Obviously, downsizing Amazonia’s existing protected areas would have to stop. </p>
<p>Finally, Lula would need to revisit the IIRSA program and pursue only those projects that bring economic development without excessive deforestation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A road with soybean fields on both sides and the edge of the dense Amazon rainforest in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The edge of a soy plantation shows the Amazon before and after deforestation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/soy-plantation-in-amazon-rainforest-near-santarem-news-photo/462376826">Ricardo Beliel/Brazil Photos/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Research I am currently working on with colleagues in the Ecuadorian Amazon focuses on a particular type of protected area, <a href="http://www.indigenousterritories.com/">the Indigenous Territory</a>. We argue that safeguarding Indigenous territorial rights provides Amazonia’s national governments with effective conservation allies. This is because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2018.1418994">Indigenous peoples want to defend their homelands</a>. Unfortunately, <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2022/08/fighting-extractive-industries-in-ecuador-qa-with-indigenous-activist-maria-espinosa/">national governments are not always supportive of Indigenous rights</a>, especially when their territories contain mineral wealth.</p>
<p>Slowing global climate change, however, will require international collaboration on an unprecedented scale. Luckily, a forum for this already exists with the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing the states and how hot spots show up along highways" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Areas with intense deforestation in 2021 largely aligned with major roadways.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://maaproject.org/2021/amazon-hotspots-2021/">Finer M, Mamani N, Spore J (2020) Amazon Deforestation Hotspots 2021. MAAP: 147</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><iframe id="p7Iuw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/p7Iuw/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The people of the Amazon</h2>
<p>The Amazon Basin is home to 35 million people, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.009">many of whom live in poverty</a>. They have every right to desire a better life, and that’s one reason that IIRSA has a great deal of local support. </p>
<p>However, while the initiative might bring short-term benefits, it also risks destroying the very resources it was intended to develop. And that could leave the region in a state of poverty that cannot be alleviated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert T. Walker receives funding from The U.S. National Science Foundation. He is affiliated with The University of Florida, Center for Latin American Studies. </span></em></p>Nearly 95% of deforestation in the Amazon occurs within 3.5 miles of a road or near a river. Brazil’s plans to ramp up exports may be on a collision course with the forest.Robert T. Walker, Professor of Latin American Studies and Geography, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2015442023-03-19T11:51:48Z2023-03-19T11:51:48ZWe can’t fight authoritarianism without understanding populism’s allure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515015/original/file-20230313-2080-5bov4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3340%2C2135&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump reacts to the crowd after he finished speaking at a campaign rally in support of Sen. Marco Rubio in Miami in November.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Populists across the globe <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/05/number-of-populist-world-leaders-at-20-year-low">have had a rough couple of years</a>.</p>
<p>Donald Trump in the United States, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom are no longer in power. Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-duterte-idUSKBN1JW28C">respected his country’s constitutional term limit</a> and Mexico’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-mexico-government-caribbean-bb54946eeded89a22445ede82e697619">Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador is stepping down</a> at the end of his presidency too. </p>
<p>Even Canada’s Pierre Poilievre <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/poilievre-dismisses-claims-he-spoke-to-controversial-german-politician-as-categorically-false-1.6291288">chastised his MPs</a> for meeting with a German far-right politician. </p>
<p>But is populism over? Hardly. </p>
<p>Populist politicians of the most recent wave were lucky. Their rule was based on oversized personalities with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12510">lots of charisma</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-populism-has-an-enduring-and-ominous-appeal-199065">Why populism has an enduring and ominous appeal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The leaders of the current phase, however, are smarter and their Machiavellian ambitions grander. In the U.S., a dozen or more newly elected congressional ultra-rightists <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/170441/ron-desantis-presidency-even-worse-trump">are angling</a> to replace Trump at the head of the Republican Party at the first opportunity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A protester holds up a sign with a caricature of Donald Trump behind bars." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters stand in front of Trump Tower in New York in August 2022 demanding his indictment for various alleged misdeeds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Populism 2.0</h2>
<p>The focused populism of 2023 is light years away from the unexpected successes of 2016. The newest class of right-wing populists aims not only to dismantle the guardrails of democracy, but also the most fundamental principles of the rule of law. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.demdigest.org/has-populism-won-the-war-on-liberal-democracy/">This attack is happening</a> in many countries. Populists are moving fast and using targeted strategies to subordinate the legal order to authoritarian rule. </p>
<p>The attack on judicial independence <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/23/israel-judicial-reform-protests-netanyahu-government-supreme-court/">in Israel</a>, the violent occupation of the Supreme Court and Houses of Parliament <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-supreme-court-orders-removal-of-brasilia-governor-ibaneis-rocha-after-protests-11673270708">in Brazil</a>, the arrest and intimidation of journalists <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/18/indian-journalists-bbc-raid-media">in India</a> and the imprisonment of thousands of Russians opposed to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ilya-yashin-valdimir-putin-critic-prison-sentence-ukraine-war-criticism/">Vladimir Putin’s murderous invasion of Ukraine</a> all happened in the past year. </p>
<p>Recent surveys have shown that citizens in democracies around the world increasingly believe that both government and the media are “<a href="https://www.edelman.com/trust/2022-trust-barometer">divisive forces in society</a>.” </p>
<p>Policy experts <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19063265">don’t yet know</a> if populism is a cause or a symptom of polarization. Regardless, trust in the democratic process is eroding.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of women dressed in red robes and white bonnets stand in a row in front of skyscrapers at dusk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Israeli women’s rights activists in Tel Aviv dressed as characters in the popular television series ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’ protest plans by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to overhaul the judicial system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘fascistic individual’</h2>
<p>In his 1950 book <em>The Authoritarian Personality</em>, German sociologist Theodor Adorno argues there’s an inherent desire for dominance deep in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/nov/03/grand-hotel-abyss-frankfurt-school-adorno-benjamin-stuart-jeffries-review">human psyche</a>. Adorno was ahead of his time in exploring the psychology of the “potentially fascistic individual” lying dormant within us.</p>
<p>More than 70 years later, social scientists still haven’t explained the magnetism of the abyss — a term describing some people’s willingness to embrace reckless policies regardless of the explosive consequences for their societies. </p>
<p>To come to terms with this capacity for delusion, contemporary psychologists have returned to the idea that there are certain ways of thinking that create a warped world view. </p>
<p>Research into Machiavellianism, narcissism and psychopathy, the so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajpy.12198">Dark Triad</a> of anti-social personality traits, draws upon Adorno’s important insights. Social scientists are now identifying the link between a vindictive world view and political extremism, online abuse and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/opinion/democrats-republicans-education-racial-resentment.html">hate speech</a>. </p>
<h2>The masks of command</h2>
<p>Each authoritarian leader is different, bound only by their anti-liberalism, Dark Triad traits and their celebration as the ringleader of a populist circus. </p>
<p>In our recent book, <a href="https://ecwpress.com/products/has-populism-won"><em>Has Populism Won?</em></a>, we show how charismatic leaders encourage a form of totalitarianism in which blind allegiance creates a feeling of partisan belonging. To carry it off, leaders wear what we call “masks of command” to rally their followers. </p>
<p>In our assessment, leaders who spin webs of lies wear the mask of “conspirator-in-chief.” The conspirator uses favours, relationships and money to destabilize institutions and erode the norms that stand in the way of autocracy. </p>
<p>Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu relies upon the commander’s mask of “first citizen of the empire” when he argues that the solution to societal polarization is more personalized power. </p>
<p>The first citizen always desires fewer checks and balances. For example, Netanyahu wants to politicize judicial appointments and reduce the oversight of Israel’s Supreme Court. It’s all aimed at <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/20/what-are-israels-judicial-changes-causing-uproar">undermining the autonomy of judges</a> who have the responsibility to protect Israel’s constitution.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman holds up a sign depicting two men kissing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-Boris Johnson protester holds up a placard with artwork of him and Donald Trump in London in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Johnson and Trump frequently wore the aggressive mask of “national defender.” As false tribunes of the people, they <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/boris-johnson-donald-trump-immigration-plan-british-election-1472333">weaponized immigration</a> to their own advantage.</p>
<p>For Trump, America was beset by armies of refugees from Latin America. For Johnson, the U.K. needed to raise the drawbridge on migrants from eastern Europe. The zealot national defender always exaggerates external threats. </p>
<p>The “holy crusader” is even more ambitious because he believes he can change the entire international order to return his nation to greatness. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A balding man sit in a carved wooden chair." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting via videoconference outside Moscow on March 3, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, Putin is a warmonger who uses imperialistic belligerence to disguise his nation’s decline. He aggressively sells the delusion of a Eurasian century. </p>
<p>Backed by China, he shadow-boxes with Russia’s old foe, western capitalism, to restore Moscow’s <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/world-putin-wants-fiona-hill-angela-stent">superpower status</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-imperial-mindset-dates-back-centuries-and-it-is-here-to-stay-95832">Russia's imperial mindset dates back centuries – and it is here to stay</a>
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<h2>The spectacle of authoritarianism</h2>
<p>These politicians play to jaded electorates and captive audiences who reward grandiosity and xenophobia because partisanship fills the void left by an absence of genuine national community. </p>
<p>These shamanistic masks have long been a mainstay of populists.</p>
<p>To many contemporary observers, the idea of an authoritarian personality <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2010.508901">is antiquated</a>. We disagree. What Adorno and his contemporaries did was ground-breaking. They clarified why some people prefer authoritarianism even when it runs counter <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/cutting-edge-leadership/201712/why-do-people-vote-against-their-best-interests">to their interests</a>. </p>
<p>So how to oppose extremism?</p>
<p>As political scientists, we believe democracy only works when it is safeguarded by a robust system of checks and balances, masses of engaged citizens and an independent judiciary. Every populist who promises to destroy the government to save it is lying for personal gain. It’s as simple as that. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rallying-cry-youth-must-stand-up-to-defend-democracy-81003">Rallying cry: Youth must stand up to defend democracy</a>
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<p>In his book <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780805089134/thespiritofdemocracy"><em>The Spirit of Democracy</em></a>, political scientist Larry Diamond of Stanford University argues that the fate of democracy depends on the passion of the people to defend it from its enemies. But today, the people’s passion is in the grips of hard-right populists.</p>
<p>Canada is still experiencing the shock waves of the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-police-convoy-inquiry-poec-documents-1.6684923">so-called freedom convoy</a>. </p>
<p>Yet we shouldn’t be complacent to the immediate reality that more radioactive fallout from American politics is heading our way. It demands an urgent response.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201544/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The newest class of right-wing populists aims to not only dismantle the guardrails of democracy, but also the most fundamental principles of the rule of law. We must prepare.Daniel Drache, Professor emeritus, Department of Politics, York University, CanadaMarc D. Froese, Professor of Political Science and Founding Director, International Studies Program, Burman UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1990652023-02-12T13:19:53Z2023-02-12T13:19:53ZWhy populism has an enduring and ominous appeal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509037/original/file-20230208-2401-c7sy0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5615%2C3732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters, supporters of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro, storm the National Congress building in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1468795X14536652">Max Weber</a>, the founder of modern sociology, once argued that charismatic politicians are seen by their followers as saviours and heroes.</p>
<p>But they are just as likely to be charlatans and swindlers.</p>
<p>Whether you blame social media or inequality, contemporary citizens seem to want political <a href="https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/">horse races</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659">big personalities</a> — at least that’s the conventional wisdom. Engage your disgruntled followers with big ideas on TikTok! </p>
<p>It would be bad enough if culture war clashes were just so much entertainment. But politicians that include former British prime minister <a href="https://michaelignatieff.ca/article/2022/democracy-versus-democracy-the-populist-challenge-to-liberal-democracy/">Boris Johnson</a> in the U.K. and American Sen. <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3760382-hawley-cruz-rubio-emerge-as-champions-of-gop-populism-amid-trumps-decline/">Josh Hawley</a> appeal to the working classes — the masses of people without much money who turn out to vote. </p>
<p>Their alpha male leadership styles are built on audacious attacks on <a href="https://michaelignatieff.ca/article/2022/democracy-versus-democracy-the-populist-challenge-to-liberal-democracy/">the legitimacy</a> of free, open and equitable societies.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hard-core-trump-supporters-ignore-his-lies-144650">Why hard-core Trump supporters ignore his lies</a>
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<p>The public watches in amazement as these leaders espouse terrible beliefs about immigrants, refugees and sexual minorities that only bigots used to say in private. </p>
<p>As we examine in our book <em><a href="https://ecwpress.com/products/has-populism-won">Has Populism Won? The War On Liberal Democracy</a></em>, these populist shock-and-awe tactics are a brazen attempt to personalize authority under the cliché of “power to the people.” They also cause citizens to lose sight of what’s important as they bicker over the newest scandal. </p>
<h2>Conspiracy theories, lies</h2>
<p>Polarization is not a side effect of populism, but rather its <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/10/01/how-to-understand-global-spread-of-political-polarization-pub-79893">mainspring</a>. </p>
<p>Populists know that in highly polarized societies, a photo finish is still a win. So candidates <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-says-hell-fight-like-hell-to-hold-on-to-presidency">fight like hell</a>, using every tool at their disposal to win — conspiracy theories, outright lies and of course, obscene amounts of money. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1622709298500628482"}"></div></p>
<p>Disenchanted voters support populists because conservatives have thrown off the shackles of modern <a href="https://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2023/01/the-shill-of-the-people/">political messaging</a>. Extremism cuts through the noise of the news cycle and connects with the base. </p>
<p>Pierre Poilievre, Canada’s newly elected Conservative leader, is an example. He’s <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8959365/canada-day-convoy-james-topp-far-right-pierre-poilievre/">riding the wave of the so-called Freedom Convoy, anti-vaxxers and the far-right wing of his party</a> and following the template that has worked so well for populist governments across the globe. </p>
<p>But his free speech persona, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2019.1599570">like every other authoritarian</a>, is carefully constructed.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1623420038244929536"}"></div></p>
<p>Italy’s <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/italys-election-giorgia-meloni-far-right-favorite-for-prime-minister-appeals-to-disgruntled-voters/a-63184990">Giorgia Meloni</a> is an instructive example of this careful construction. </p>
<p>Voters were seduced by her charisma. That’s because the crucial element in creating a a popular far-right movement is constantly reminding citizens that they are the tribe of the true nation — and Meloni has mastered the discipline of a communications maestro. </p>
<p>Collective wrath is a proxy for belonging to the tribe and that feeling of belonging became the basis for her authoritarian fantasy of the popular will. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/giorgia-melonis-win-in-italy-proves-even-a-seemingly-successful-government-can-fall-victim-to-populism-191278">Giorgia Meloni's win in Italy proves even a seemingly successful government can fall victim to populism</a>
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<h2>Anger is a prime motivator</h2>
<p>Despite his defeat, voters turned out in large numbers to vote for <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/2020-election-numbers">Donald Trump in 2020</a> and barely rejected <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/30/brazil-election-lula-da-silva-narrowly-defeats-jair-bolsonaro">Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>Do high-profile losses mean the worst is over? No, because the <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2020/03/11/populism-jeopardizes-democracies-around-world/">contempt for democracy at the heart of populism</a> has not yet been defeated. Today <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2232411">populism is still growing</a>, metastasizing and reaching into every corner of modern politics. It is coming from many directions at once. </p>
<p>At first it was easy to write off populism’s appeal to ignorance. Now the key elements radicalizing voters are crystal-clear: <a href="https://www.piie.com/commentary/speeches-papers/backlash-against-globalization">anger against hyper-globalization, a reserve army of economic losers, ideological true believers</a>, charismatic leaders weaponizing the big lie and the ultimate prize, money and organization to win the commanding heights of political office.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-freedom-convoy-protesters-are-a-textbook-case-of-aggrieved-entitlement-176791">The 'freedom convoy' protesters are a textbook case of 'aggrieved entitlement'</a>
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<p>Social psychologists have shown that anger is a <a href="https://isr.umich.edu/news-events/insights-newsletter/article/anger-motivates-people-to-vote-u-m-study-shows/">prime motivator</a> in politics. In times of peril, the most vulnerable pin their hopes on the authoritarian leader with emotionally charged messaging and grandiose promises. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man with a white beard and glasses gestures as he speaks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media in New Delhi in November 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manish Swarup)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, the anger is a distraction from the true work of the populist — disinformation. In a post-truth age, the populist is a narcissist like India’s Narendra Modi, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/04/modi-india-personality-cult-democracy/">who uses sly innuendo and outright chicanery to consolidate power</a>. </p>
<p>Many reasonable people in advanced democracies tolerate populist temper tantrums because <a href="https://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.6565">anger and bullshit</a> are better than apathy, aren’t they? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bullshit-is-everywhere-heres-how-to-deal-with-it-at-work-135661">Bullshit is everywhere. Here's how to deal with it at work</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Populist turmoil, however, can’t be measured in units of patriotism. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54484-7_64">Patriotism requires genuine care</a> for one’s country and all the people in it. </p>
<p>In the hands of masters of manipulation, anger coarsens discourse, diminishes the possibility of compromise and normalizes extreme rhetoric. Even so, anger in politics isn’t always a power move. </p>
<p>Outrage can motivate people to speak up and utter uncomfortable truths. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00220272.2021.2009578">Compassionate anger</a> can be a powerful force for justice, as we witnessed in the Black Lives Matter movement. How can we tell the difference between rage farming and righteous anger? It’s difficult but doable.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People carry a Black Lives Matter flag as they walk along a downtown street at night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this Nov. 4, 2020, photo, protesters representing Black Lives Matter and Protect the Results march in Seattle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The cynicism of contempt</h2>
<p>The difference between political success and failure in such a polarized society is always a matter of voter turnout. </p>
<p>In the United States, the Republicans bet that dialling up the anger to an 11 would squeeze a few more votes from an exhausted electorate, but they didn’t deliver <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/us/politics/trump-republicans-2024-nikki-haley.html">a red tsunami — this time</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/young-u-s-voters-reduced-the-red-wave-to-a-pink-splash-in-the-midterm-elections-why-didnt-polls-predict-it-194507">Young U.S. voters reduced the 'Red Wave' to a 'Pink Splash' in the midterm elections — why didn't polls predict it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Is it fair to decry the normalization of strong emotions in politics as a conservative problem? Don’t both sides use intense feeling for political gain? They do. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00987-4">Emotional messaging is too potent a tool in modern democracy</a> to be ignored by any party that wants to win power. But today, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2017/may/26/negativity-bias-why-conservatives-are-more-swayed-by-threats-than-liberals">conservatives lean hard on strong negative emotions</a> and eschew hope — and their outrage <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/13/populism-post-truth-politics-brazil-protest-00077721">too often carries a distinct threat of vindictive violence.</a> </p>
<p>When analyzing affective political messaging, we always need to figure out if the anger we’re witnessing is calculated to prolong endless wars of polarization or whether it seeks to reconcile division and rebuild community. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Two black women press their heads together." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">RowVaughn Wells, left, mother of Tyre Nichols, who died after being beaten by Memphis police officers, is comforted by Rep. Shelia Jackson Lee, D-Texas, on Capitol Hill on Feb. 7, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Cliff Owen)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, Black mothers in Memphis are demanding the police stop killing <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/27/us/rowvaughn-wells-tyre-nichols-mother-interview/index.html">their sons</a>. Their demands are grounded in reality, and more than anything else they want a future of peace and safety for their children.</p>
<p>Today populism is defined by rhetorical violence and the authoritarian supposed strongmen. <a href="https://diamond-democracy.stanford.edu/speaking/speeches/when-does-populism-become-threat-democracy">Democracies die and civil wars start</a> with right-wing leaders who use their anger to degrade democracy and tighten their grip on power. </p>
<p>Make no mistake. We are far beyond the stop-gap measures of small-step reform or pragmatic centrist liberalism. What lies beyond the careful compromises of the post-Second World War order? We’re about to find out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Populism has been unleashed. We’re beyond the stop-gap measures of small-step reform or pragmatic centrist liberalism. What’s next? We’re about to find out.Daniel Drache, Professor emeritus, Department of Politics, York University, CanadaMarc D. Froese, Professor of Political Science and Founding Director, International Studies Program, Burman UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1982672023-02-09T13:35:49Z2023-02-09T13:35:49ZBrazil’s president visits the White House as he tries to counter rising threats to democracy at home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508787/original/file-20230208-25-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C23%2C3940%2C2526&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva speaks to reporters during a news conference on Jan. 23, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazilian-president-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-speaks-to-the-news-photo/1246491163?adppopup=true">Manuel Cortina/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva meets with President Joe Biden on Feb. 10, 2023, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-jair-bolsonaro-politics-brazil-government-united-states-bb281312b61f8560b03478b63143255e">climate change, economic development and security</a> will be on the agenda. But if Lula cannot stabilize his country’s democracy, he won’t be able to tackle any of these other goals. </p>
<p>Biden and Lula lead vastly different countries. Yet, the violent challenges each faced to their elections have given them similar battles to fight.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-under-attack-in-brazil-5-questions-about-the-storming-of-congress-and-the-role-of-the-military-197396">Jan. 8, 2023, attack on Brazil’s capital</a> echoed elements of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jan-6-capitol-attacks-offer-a-reminder-distrust-in-government-has-long-been-part-of-republicans-playbook-175823">the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection</a> at the U.S. Capitol. In both countries, incumbents who lost reelection began encouraging the violence weeks before their followers acted.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=QOIsuC8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">anthropologist who studies Brazilian politics</a>, I see connections between how both riots were organized and the collective rage they conveyed. And I see the countries taking similar steps to shore up their democracies. The U.S. is two years into the process. But Brazil, where the insurrection was further <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/01/brazil-lula-bolsonaro-jan-8-insurrection-military-civilian-relations-democracy-tenetismo/">complicated by military complicity</a>, is just beginning the undertaking.</p>
<h2>They acted on a lie</h2>
<p>In both cases, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/world/americas/brazil-riots-bolsonaro-conspiracy-theories.html">rioters were convinced the election had been stolen from them</a> and the candidates they backed – former President Donald Trump in the U.S. and Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro – despite there being no evidence of election fraud. In both cases, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/technology/brazil-riots-jan-6-misinformation-social-media.html">rioters organized online</a>, and far-right influencers like Steve Bannon, who has had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-election-bannon/steve-bannon-endorses-far-right-brazilian-presidential-candidate-idUSKCN1N01S1">close ties to Bolsonaro since 2018</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/09/bannon-brazil-riots-trump-00077155">fanned the flames</a>. </p>
<p>The rioters attacked physical symbols of democracy, like the Capitol in the U.S. and the National Congress and the Supreme Federal Court buildings in Brazil. In the U.S., rioters even openly <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCbTgDC14uY">called for the hanging </a> and <a href="https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/2021/07/26/hearing-set-wnc-man-cleveland-meredith-who-threatened-kill-nancy-pelosi-after-jan-6-capitol-riot/8054954002/">killing of elected officials</a>. In Brazil, a nation once governed by a brutal military dictatorship, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/protesters-storm-brazils-government-calling-for-military-takeover/">rioters pushed for a military takeover</a> of the government. </p>
<p>The fact that so many people were moved from visceral anger to violence shows how easily people can be seduced by extreme ideology. That is a threat to democracy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508795/original/file-20230208-13-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="As some Brazilian flag-holding supporters of far-right ex-president Jair Bolsonaro charge him, a military police officer falls from his horse to the ground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508795/original/file-20230208-13-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508795/original/file-20230208-13-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508795/original/file-20230208-13-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508795/original/file-20230208-13-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508795/original/file-20230208-13-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508795/original/file-20230208-13-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508795/original/file-20230208-13-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Military police clash with supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro after an invasion on Planalto Presidential Palace in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/military-police-officer-falls-from-his-horse-during-clashes-news-photo/1246096036?adppopup=true">Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My book “<a href="https://www.rutgersuniversitypress.org/precarious-democracy/9781978825659">Precarious Democracy</a>,” which I co-edited with fellow anthropologists <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=ptwrLO4AAAAJ">Lucia Cantero</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=2YFxU6oAAAAJ">Benjamin Junge</a> and <a href="https://sasn.rutgers.edu/about-us/faculty-staff/sean-t-mitchell">Sean Mitchell</a>, demonstrates that <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.5749/j.ctttswhd">political affect</a> – the nonrational, emotional aspects of politics – can shape events in modern democracies. </p>
<p>Bolsonaro, for example, relied on portraying LGBT minorities <a href="https://doi.org/10.36019/9781978825697-018">as morally disgusting and a threat to the nation</a> to rally support. That characterization was central to his electoral victory in 2018. Similarly, Trump – as candidate and president – <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/16/trump-immigrants-animals-mexico-democrats-sanctuary-cities/617252002/">cast immigrants as a threat to the United States</a>. While Trump had an uncommon approach to the modern American presidency, <a href="https://www.academia.edu/35333795/Brand_ish_ing_the_Name_or_Why_is_Trump_So_Enjoyable">his followers reveled in his norm breaking</a>. And Bolsonaro validated conservatives’ emotional shift <a href="http://doi.org/10.1086/708627">from hope to hate</a> with the stoking of racial division and other tactics. As the anthropologist Patricia de Santana Pinho argues, <a href="https://doi.org/10.36019/9781978825697-007">Bolsonaro fomented a growing racial resentment</a> among white Brazilians accustomed to being at the top of the country’s racial hierarchy, but who felt they had lost that privilege under Lula’s Workers’ Party. Bolsonaro promised to return to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/03/opinion/in-brazil-a-new-nostalgia-for-military-dictatorship.html">a mythical past when “there was decency and respect for the family,”</a> using violence if necessary to achieve that goal. He <a href="https://doi.org/10.36019/9781978825697-006">even encouraged gun ownership as a way to reestablish social and moral order</a>.</p>
<h2>The challenges ahead</h2>
<p>It is very hard to combat rage, resentment and nostalgia with appeals to rationality and civility. And Lula’s charge is further complicated by <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/08/1147757260/bolsonaro-supporters-storm-brazil-congress-lula">Bolsonaro supporters’ call for the return of military rule</a>. </p>
<p>From 1964 to 1985, Brazilian citizens were <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/11/world/americas/torture-report-on-brazilian-dictatorship-is-released.html">tortured, raped and subjected to forced disappearances</a> during the country’s military dictatorship. And in the decades since, most elements of the country’s democracy were restored, but the civilian-run government still has not gained back full <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/01/brazil-lula-bolsonaro-jan-8-insurrection-military-civilian-relations-democracy-tenetismo">control of Brazil’s security agencies</a>. What’s more, while he was in office, Bolsonaro worked to make sure civilians did not regain that control by appointing <a href="https://theintercept.com/2022/01/10/brazil-military-power-jair-bolsonaro/">thousands of military officers</a> – both active duty and reserve – to civilian posts that controlled significant sectors of the government and the federal budget. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/27/brazil-bolsonaro-military-coup-1964">He celebrated the 1964 coup</a> that led to military rule and the military regime itself. And he made sure the military and police force were amply funded, giving the agencies a total of <a href="https://theintercept.com/2022/01/10/brazil-military-power-jair-bolsonaro/">about US$5 billion</a> by the end of his term. The country’s annual budget is about $19 billion. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508791/original/file-20230208-21-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of men and women, wearing winter coats and hats stand outdoors in a horizontal line holding signs and banners. The banner in the center is the face of gray haired man. Beneath the image, the name Lula appears." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508791/original/file-20230208-21-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508791/original/file-20230208-21-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508791/original/file-20230208-21-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508791/original/file-20230208-21-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508791/original/file-20230208-21-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508791/original/file-20230208-21-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508791/original/file-20230208-21-etru66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A coalition of activists gathers in New York to support Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva following a coup attempt by far-right supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/coalition-of-activists-and-allies-gather-in-union-square-to-news-photo/1246123361?adppopup=true">Michael Nigro/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The path to democracy</h2>
<p>Restoring Brazil’s democracy and ridding the government of military influence may be Lula’s biggest challenge. But he’s taking practical steps to do it, such as firing a military general who reportedly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/21/lula-sacks-head-of-brazilian-army-for-protecting-8-january-insurgents">prevented Jan. 8 rioters from being arrested</a>. He also co-signed a letter with the governor of every state in Brazil, which explained that <a href="https://www.today90.com/lula-and-governors-ratify-commitment-to-a-democratic-state-news">democracy is non-negotiable</a>.</p>
<p>On a different front, Lula is combating rage with another powerful emotion: hope. The historian John French describes his approach as a <a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9781469655765/lula-and-his-politics-of-cunning/">“politics of cunning,”</a> characterized by a willingness to compromise and a vision of the nation that feels more inclusive and equitable for all Brazilians. </p>
<p>When Lula was sworn in, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/02/brazil-drag-queen-salete-campari-hails-lula">he walked up the ramp to the Presidential Palace with eight representatives of his diverse political coalition</a>, among them a metalworker, an Indigenous leader, a Black activist and a gay, disabled influencer. </p>
<p>This is a man who understands the power of symbols and is trying to change how Brazilians feel about their nation. He is asking them to claim a stake by embracing diversity – and democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carmen Alvaro Jarrin's research has been generously funded by the Harvard Radcliffe Institute, by the American Council of Learned Societies and by the Wenner-Gren Foundation.</span></em></p>President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will meet with President Biden at the White House on Feb. 10, 2023, to discuss several joint issues. But democracy is job one.Carmen Alvaro Jarrin, Associate Professor of Anthropology, College of the Holy CrossLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1976732023-01-30T13:14:44Z2023-01-30T13:14:44ZBrazil’s economic challenges are again Lula’s to tackle – this time around they’re more daunting<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505670/original/file-20230120-15684-t92yp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C17%2C3917%2C2329&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bolstering Brazil's economy will be hard if there's a global recession.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-gestures-during-news-photo/1246116883?adppopup=true">Mauro Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even when they’re in trouble, Brazilians rarely lose their sense of humor. But in recent years, their joviality has often given way to <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-06/Culture%20wars%20around%20the%20world%20_0.pdf">political division</a> everywhere from social media to the dinner table.</p>
<p>One <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-no-longer-the-country-of-the-future-59505">familiar quip</a> – that Brazil is the country of the future and always will be – has lost its levity as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva begins his third <a href="https://www.gov.br/secretariadegoverno/pt-br/posse-presidencial">presidential term</a>. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/01/1146518711/leftist-lula-brazil-sworn-in-president">Lula previously led his country from 2003 to 2010</a>. The president, who was sworn in again on Jan. 1, 2023, promised on the campaign trail that Brazil’s future can be like its past again: more prosperous and less polarized. </p>
<p>Having <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=KBw41t4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">studied Brazil</a> in <a href="https://www.nber.org/people/marc_muendler?page=1&perPage=50">our economic research</a>, and having lived in the country for several years by birth or by choice, we argue that it will not be easy for Lula to fulfill his economic promises.</p>
<p>Unlike in his first two terms, when domestic and foreign markets <a href="https://www.econ.puc-rio.br/biblioteca.php/trabalhos/show/1533">helped the economy along</a>, Lula now faces <a href="https://www.oecd.org/economy/brazil-economic-snapshot">strong headwinds at home</a> <a href="https://www.weforum.org/press/2023/01/chief-economists-say-global-recession-likely-in-2023-but-cost-of-living-crisis-close-to-peaking">and abroad</a> – and that means sound policies are even more important this time around.</p>
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<h2>Good times, bad times and economic choices</h2>
<p>Brazil shot up from the world’s 14th-largest economy in 2003 to the <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=BR">seventh-biggest in 2010</a>, during a boom that largely coincided with Lula’s prior presidency. At the same time, the country’s <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators">poverty rate</a>, which the World Bank today pegs at the share of the population living on less than US$3.65 a day, fell sharply, from 26% to 12%.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.exportgenius.in/blog/brazil-exports-higher-than-imports-a-brief-overview-of-brazil-trade-641.php">Brazil exports so many</a> gallons of orange juice, bags of coffee, bushels of wheat and other commodities that it’s serving up the world’s breakfast. Global growth during those years boosted the demand for these commodities as well as for Brazil’s processed goods. Manufacturing exports fueled Brazil’s growth in the decade following the year 2000 for the first time, led by sales <a href="https://legacy.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/exports-brazil.pdf">of products like steel</a>, car parts and cars, and <a href="https://embraer.com/">aircraft made by Embraer</a>.</p>
<p>During these boom years, Lula ran a balanced government budget, held inflation low and <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Books/Issues/2019/03/11/Brazil-Boom-Bust-and-Road-to-Recovery-44927">kept the Brazilian real’s exchange rate </a> with other currencies under control – macroeconomic policies that he maintained from his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Lula also bundled <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2015.1059730">Cardoso’s popular anti-poverty programs</a> into Bolsa Família, a successful <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022216X0600157X">conditional cash transfer program</a>. To remain enrolled and receive the monetary benefits, low-income families had to get their children vaccinated against diseases, keep them in school and <a href="https://www.iadb.org/en/toolkit/conditional-cash-transfer-programs/brazil-bolsa-familia">meet other requirements</a>. </p>
<p>Cynthia Benedetto, Embraer’s chief financial officer, <a href="https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2011/09/13/chegou-a-hora-do-brasil-ou-ela-acabou-de-passar.ghtml">observed in 2011</a>: “Since my childhood I heard that Brazil is the country of the future,” and then warned, “Now the future has arrived, and I start to fear that it is short.”</p>
<p>She was right. The good times didn’t last. </p>
<p>During the second decade of this century, the prices of many of the commodities that Brazil exports <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNFUELINDEXQ">fell or even plummeted</a>. The country experienced two of the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/07/519073220/brazils-recession-the-longest-and-deepest-in-its-history-new-figures-show">worst recessions in its history</a>. In the downturn that lasted from late 2014 to mid-2016, <a href="https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/tabela/4094">nearly 5 million Brazilians lost their jobs</a>. After a sluggish recovery, the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and <a href="https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/46504/64/PO2020_Brazil_en.pdf">10 million Brazilians became jobless</a> in another big downturn.</p>
<h2>Political upheaval</h2>
<p>Bad choices made tough and unlucky times worse.</p>
<p>A combination of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/05775132.2020.1866906">economic mismanagement</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45290155#metadata_info_tab_contents">widespread corruption</a>, <a href="https://semancha.com/2013/06/22/the-gringos-guide-to-demonstrations-in-brazil/">political turmoil</a> and a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil">global pandemic</a> all contributed to 10 years of backward sliding after a decade of progress.</p>
<p>Lula’s <a href="https://www.poder360.com.br/justica/5-anos-de-lava-jato-285-condenacoes-600-reus-e-3-000-anos-de-penas/">allies</a>, including some in his <a href="https://www.camara.leg.br/tv/388972-supremo-condena-ex-ministro-jose-dirceu-a-10-anos-e-10-meses-de-reclusao/">inner circle</a>, were found to be part of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35810578">one corruption scheme after another</a>. Lula himself <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-corruption-lula/former-brazilian-president-lula-found-guilty-of-corruption-idUSE6N1JB014">ended up in prison for corruption</a> until <a href="https://portal.stf.jus.br/noticias/verNoticiaDetalhe.asp?idConteudo=464261&ori=1">Brazil’s Supreme Court declared the case a mistrial</a> because the presiding judge was determined to have been biased.</p>
<p>Brazilians elected Lula’s hand-picked successor, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29782073">Dilma Rousseff</a>, in the 2010 and 2014 presidential races. She cast aside some of her predecessors’ policies that had buttressed economic stability.</p>
<p>Rousseff <a href="https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/app/noticia/economia/2016/01/20/internas_economia,514557/tombini-se-curva-a-pressao-do-pt-e-banco-central-deve-manter-juros.shtml">ended the central bank’s de facto independence</a> and lowered interest rates in an <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ldGPSw-D2wugZNlKc8_lBg918YGC0-3G/edit">abrupt turnaround that sparked inflation</a>. She gave up on <a href="https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/app/noticia/economia/2013/11/07/internas_economia,397597/mantega-admite-que-a-meta-fiscal-deste-ano-nao-sera-atingida.shtml">balancing the budget</a>.</p>
<p>Once corruption was exposed in state-owned oil company <a href="https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/lula-admite-corrupcao-na-petrobras-erros-de-dilma-e-compara-mensalao-a-orcament/">Petrobras</a>, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-39194395">construction industry</a> and at Brazil’s massive <a href="https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/politica-brasil/diretor-do-bndes-brasil-legalizou-corrupcao-com-mudanca-na-lei">state-run development bank</a>, economic activity slowed across the board. Rousseff oversaw one of Brazil’s most severe economic contractions in memory: <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators">GDP shrank by 7%</a> and <a href="https://blogdoibre.fgv.br/posts/divida-bruta-ou-divida-liquida-eis-questao">public debt increased 20 percentage points as a share of GDP</a> from 2014 to 2016.</p>
<p>Brazil’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/latin-america-caribbean-brazil-impeachments-international-news-d5614b598b25470e839d9d8acfc9cff8">Congress impeached and convicted Rousseff</a> in 2016 for fiscal improprieties. Her vice president, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brazil-politics-temer-idUKKCN0Y32WC">Michel Temer</a>, served out the rest of her term and appointed Lula’s central bank chair, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-ministers/brazils-temer-names-henrique-meirelles-as-finance-minister-idUSKCN0Y322W">Henrique Meirelles, as minister of finance</a> to help rein in public debt.</p>
<p>Jair Bolsonaro, a vocal admirer of Brazil’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/07/30/631952886/dictatorship-was-a-very-good-period-says-brazil-s-aspiring-president">20th-century military dictatorship</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/01/jair-bolsonaro-inauguration-brazil-president">became president in 2019</a> by riding the wave of widespread sentiment against Lula’s and Rousseff’s Workers’ Party. Bolsonaro prioritized <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/carlos-goes/coluna/2021/09/do-entusiasmo-com-equipe-economica-decepcao-25212666.ghtml">short-term political gain</a> over long-term adjustment, often <a href="https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-50105202">clashing with his own economic aides</a> and dodging rules meant to curb government spending. </p>
<p>By 2020, Brazil’s economy <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators">ranked No. 12 in the world in terms of GDP</a>, and living conditions deteriorated. In 2021, the poverty rate likely hit the highest level in a decade, according to estimates by <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106004340/https://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/bitstream/11058/11563/4/NT_102_Disoc_Um_Pais.pdf">researchers at IPEA, a government think tank</a>, as well as <a href="https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/35695-poverty-hits-a-record-in-2021-62-5-million-persons-highest-level-since-2012">IBGE</a>, Brazil’s statistics agency.</p>
<p>The pandemic and the social spending fluctuations it brought about have made it hard to accurately track economic trends in recent years. But the numbers suggest that Brazil is close again to where it started the 21st century. </p>
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<h2>Back to the future</h2>
<p>Lula’s economic challenges are daunting, over and above the political crisis after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-under-attack-in-brazil-5-questions-about-the-storming-of-congress-and-the-role-of-the-military-197396">riots by opposition supporters in Brasília</a>.</p>
<p>First, the economic outlook is gloomy. Inflation has led central banks worldwide to <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-interest-rates-rising-faster-than-expected-pivot-unlikely-in-2023-10-11-2022">increase interest rates</a>, and the International Monetary Fund <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/11/policymakers-need-steady-hand-as-storm-clouds-gather-over-global-economy">forecasts a global slowdown in 2023</a>. </p>
<p>Even if the world still wants Brazil’s coffee, <a href="https://citrusindustry.net/2023/01/13/brazils-orange-juice-production-and-exports/">orange juice</a> and cereal from wheat or corn for breakfast, we doubt that foreign demand for Brazil’s exports will bounce back to the levels seen in past boom years. </p>
<p><a href="https://data.imf.org/commodityprices">Global prices for many of the commodities Brazil exports</a> have been sliding downward for the past 15 years. They briefly reached their 2008 peak level again in mid-2022, partly driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing global turmoil that <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/food-export-restrictions-have-eased-russia-ukraine-war-continues-concerns-remain-key">drove food prices up</a>.</p>
<p>But the prices of commodities that are <a href="https://www.usitc.gov/data/gravity/itpde.htm">particularly important to Brazil</a>, such as <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans">soybeans</a>, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/corn">corn</a> and <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee">coffee</a>, are all down significantly from their recent peaks.</p>
<p>During his 2022 campaign, Lula promised to <a href="https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/reuters/2022/08/17/lula-reajuste-tabela-imposto-de-renda.htm">slash taxes on the upper-middle class</a> and <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2022/10/eleito-prioridade-de-lula-e-renovar-auxilio-brasil-de-r-600-e-dar-aumento-real-para-o-minimo.ghtml">increase benefits for the poor</a> while <a href="https://gauchazh.clicrbs.com.br/economia/noticia/2022/11/alckmin-diz-que-governo-lula-vai-fechar-contas-no-azul-e-reduzir-divida-mas-nao-em-24-horas-clalruut3000801g7stvj1i22.html">keeping government finances under control</a>.</p>
<p>This arithmetic is feasible in an era of rapid growth, when newly generated wealth can finance public transfers. At times of slow or no growth, like today, it becomes much harder to pull off.</p>
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<p>Second, unlike when Lula first took office <a href="https://oxfordre.com/latinamericanhistory/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780199366439.001.0001/acrefore-9780199366439-e-416;jsessionid=A0929A5DBDAF95045F6D2AA8214B2378?mediaType=Article">following a period of fiscal stability</a>, this time he must credibly rebuild much of the fiscal framework.</p>
<p>After boosts to benefits, tax cuts and some <a href="https://www.insper.edu.br/agenda-de-eventos/lancamento-do-livro-para-nao-esquecer-politicas-publicas-que-empobrecem-o-brasil/">unfunded pension commitments to retirees</a>, it’s become hard to balance Brazil’s budget. In response to the crisis in the mid-2010s, Brazil’s <a href="https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/materias/2016/12/15/promulgada-emenda-constitucional-do-teto-de-gastos">Congress passed a spending cap</a> that gradually rises so as to foster slow fiscal adjustment while avoiding harsh austerity. But Bolsonaro essentially got rid of the cap by circumventing it.</p>
<p>One example is the federal government’s obligation to cover court-mandated payments: <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/839381-camara-aprova-em-2o-turno-mudancas-na-pec-dos-precatorios/&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1674072828470042&usg=AOvVaw3wBnAFA1gSAvGVnSFLHL8g">Bolsonaro delayed</a> the disbursement of 110 billion reais ($21.6 billion), equal to more than 1% of Brazil’s GDP, in 2022. That means the new government has to pay this year’s and some of last year’s bills at the same time.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/brazils-bolsonaro-says-no-national-lockdown-record-covid-deaths-rcna618">Bolsonaro dismissed the severity of COVID-19</a> when it was spreading uncontrolled through his country, his government did help people cope with its economic fallout by allowing <a href="https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/portaria/dlg6-2020.htm">emergency spending that breached Brazil’s spending cap</a>. However, his administration <a href="https://g1.globo.com/jornal-nacional/noticia/2022/06/30/senado-aprova-pec-que-preve-estado-de-emergencia-para-ampliar-beneficios-sociais.ghtml">maneuvered to perpetuate the state of emergency</a> and kept spending levels higher than the cap would allow long after Brazilians stopped staying at home for public health reasons.</p>
<p>Third, we expect political divisions, including some <a href="https://www.gov.br/planalto/pt-br/acompanhe-o-planalto/noticias/2023/01/geraldo-alckmin-toma-posse-como-vice-presidente-da-republica">within Lula’s administration</a>, to be another obstacle. Different factions on his economic team are likely to be at loggerheads for the foreseeable future because they prefer starkly different policies.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/simone-tebet-quem-e-a-nova-ministra-do-planejamento-e-ex-adversaria-de-lula-na-eleicao/">Simone Tebet</a>, the new economic planning minister who is in charge of coordinating spending, has several fiscal conservatives on her team.</p>
<p>Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, in contrast, has appointed undersecretaries known to invariably <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/bernardo-guimaraes/2022/12/o-que-esperar-da-politica-economica-do-novo-governo.shtml">advocate for more spending</a>. Plans for taxes and spending released to date set a budget surplus of 0.5% of GDP as the new government’s target, primarily financed with more tax collection. </p>
<p>Using budget projections by the <a href="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/fiscal-monitor/2022/October/Data/fm-october-2022-database.ashx">International Monetary Fund</a>, we consider those revenue projections <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2023/01/pacote-de-haddad-vai-na-direcao-correta-mas-ha-duvidas-sobre-execucao-dizem-economistas.shtml">overly optimistic</a>.</p>
<p>To be sure, any new government deserves time to prove itself, especially under tough circumstances. But <a href="https://www.briq-institute.org/global-preferences/rankings#1-0-1">patience is rarer in Brazil</a> than humor – and always has been.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197673/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc-Andreas Muendler received funding from the National Science Foundation for research using Brazilian data.
Marc-Andreas Muendler worked as a consulting researcher for the Brazilian labor ministry and the Brazilian census bureau, and currently works closely with the research department of Brazil's central bank in Sao Paulo on research into firm dynamics.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carlos Góes was a senior economic adviser at the Executive Office of the President of Brazil (2017-18). He is currently an economics columnist for O Globo, a Brazilian newspaper. He is the founder of Instituto Mercado Popular, a nonpartisan São Paulo-based think tank. </span></em></p>He faces strong headwinds at home and abroad as his third term as president gets underway.Marc-Andreas Muendler, Professor of Economics, University of California, San DiegoCarlos Góes, Doctoral Candidate in Economics, University of California, San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1980432023-01-23T13:23:42Z2023-01-23T13:23:42ZBrazil, US show that secure elections require agreement – not just cybersecurity and clear ballot records<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505461/original/file-20230119-16-wyk99q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C0%2C5395%2C3585&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters who support Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro storm the National Congress building in Brasilia, Brazil, on Jan. 8, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BrazilCapitalUprisingUSParallels/44951e0600af437097a3ffecdb1bab34/photo">AP Photo/Eraldo Peres</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There are a number of ways to run a legitimate election. But the U.S. has learned in recent years, and Brazil learned in recent weeks, that it’s not always simple. </p>
<p>There are technical mechanics and processes of how votes are cast, collected and counted. But those are ultimately less important than the agreement – among opposing parties, and across a society – to abide by the results of those processes.</p>
<p>In 2020, President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?506975-1/president-trump-statement-2020-election-results">alleged</a>, without evidence, that election fraud in several states had caused him to lose. A number of audits in various states <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-courts-election/fact-check-courts-have-dismissed-multiple-lawsuits-of-alleged-electoral-fraud-presented-by-trump-campaign-idUSKBN2AF1G1">found no evidence</a> that irregularities in voting or vote counting processes had any effect on the outcome of balloting in those states. </p>
<p>Some of these results were later challenged in lawsuits seeking to alter the results of the election, and <a href="https://judicature.duke.edu/articles/2020-election-litigation-the-courts-held/">in every case, the election’s outcome was determined to be accurate</a>.</p>
<p>Though the vast majority of these questions and checks and court decisions concluded before Congress met to count Electoral College votes on Jan. 6, 2021, Donald Trump’s supporters and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/01/12/proud-boys-trial-openings/">a number of militia groups</a> stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to stop the counting and have Trump declared president. </p>
<p>In Brazil in late 2022, incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro lost an election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former president seeking a return to office. Even before the election, Bolsonaro had <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-insurrection-how-so-many-brazilians-came-to-attack-their-own-government-197547">cast doubt on the integrity</a> of the country’s voting system. On Jan. 8, 2023, after Lula had been in office for a week, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters, including right-wing militants, <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-under-attack-in-brazil-5-questions-about-the-storming-of-congress-and-the-role-of-the-military-197396">attacked key government buildings</a>, including the building that houses the national Congress.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://fsi.stanford.edu/people/herbert_lin">scholar</a> who studies election integrity and cybersecurity, I see the source of these violent disputes not as the result of procedural or technical flaws in the voting system but rather as a failure of certain individuals living in democratic society to uphold the fundamental principles of democracy.</p>
<h2>A set of principles</h2>
<p>I and others in my field tend to agree, and think most regular people would too, that election officials should aspire to the following basic criteria:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Every person with a legal right to vote is able to cast a ballot in a given election.</p></li>
<li><p>No person without a legal right to vote is able to cast a ballot.</p></li>
<li><p>No person is allowed to cast more than one ballot.</p></li>
<li><p>Every ballot unambiguously indicates the voter’s preference.</p></li>
<li><p>Every ballot cast by a legally legitimate voter is counted, but no other ballots are counted.</p></li>
<li><p>No ballot cast can be associated with the voter who cast the ballot (that is, voters can maintain the secrecy of their ballots). </p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505463/original/file-20230119-5268-3rswb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People, some wearing masks and hats, enter a doorway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505463/original/file-20230119-5268-3rswb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505463/original/file-20230119-5268-3rswb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505463/original/file-20230119-5268-3rswb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505463/original/file-20230119-5268-3rswb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505463/original/file-20230119-5268-3rswb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505463/original/file-20230119-5268-3rswb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505463/original/file-20230119-5268-3rswb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters in Brazil storm the Planalto Palace, the official workplace of the nation’s president, on Jan. 8, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BrazilCapitalUprisingUSParallels/6d12a75274984ef6a4b01d6b855fb747/photo">AP Photo/Eraldo Peres</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To help uphold these standards, many election security analysts, <a href="https://theconversation.com/iowa-caucuses-did-one-thing-right-require-paper-ballots-131181">including me</a>, believe that paper records are an essential element of electronic voting systems. They leave open the possibility of recounting ballots in the event of a claim that electronic ballots were counted incorrectly. In general, only people who appear to have lost elections make these claims, though some states’ laws require automatic recounts when the margin of difference is small.</p>
<p>But Brazil has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/25/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-misinformation.html">done away with paper voting</a> entirely. The nation’s election officials take many measures to ensure that the electronic voting machines are working properly and are not tampered with, including testing a large sampling of the machines on Election Day, obtaining third-party analysis of at least parts of their software, and ensuring they are not connected to the internet, to increase their protection from hackers.</p>
<p>But no combination of these measures, nor any of the other protections, such as public posting of vote tallies and requiring voters to use fingerprints to unlock voting machines or to present photo identification to poll workers, is completely foolproof.</p>
<p>Paper ballots aren’t foolproof, either: <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-congressman-charged-ballot-stuffing-bribery-and-obstruction">Fraudulent ballots</a> could potentially be manufactured and inserted into the counting process without being detected. Ballots can be irretrievably destroyed after being cast. <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-election-officials-think-about-paper-ballots-and-voting-machines">Improperly made marks</a> on a ballot may not clearly indicate the voter’s intent. Humans engaged in the mind-numbing effort of counting thousands of ballots get tired and make mistakes. Counting paper ballots takes considerable time that disgruntled parties can use to sow unfounded doubts about election integrity.</p>
<p>Intelligently designed paper-based voting systems take measures to ameliorate all of these problems. But just as in the case of electronic voting, it is ultimately a matter of human judgment about whether those protections result in an acceptable level of security. And guaranteeing 100% security in an election is essentially impossible.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505466/original/file-20230119-16562-1oc7rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People in masks and hats move through a doorway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505466/original/file-20230119-16562-1oc7rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505466/original/file-20230119-16562-1oc7rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505466/original/file-20230119-16562-1oc7rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505466/original/file-20230119-16562-1oc7rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505466/original/file-20230119-16562-1oc7rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505466/original/file-20230119-16562-1oc7rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505466/original/file-20230119-16562-1oc7rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters of President Donald Trump storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Brazil%20Capital%20Uprising%20US%20Parallels/dbfb25e37d9649d5a0e1cb1c3fdbc892">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Elections are necessary</h2>
<p>Despite the inevitable flaws in voting and counting, democracies need to conduct elections. They must <a href="https://theconversation.com/good-faith-and-the-honor-of-partisan-election-officials-used-to-be-enough-to-ensure-trust-in-voting-results-but-not-anymore-189510">choose election officials</a> for whom <a href="https://theconversation.com/im-an-election-law-expert-who-ran-a-polling-station-this-election-heres-what-i-learned-about-the-powerful-role-of-local-officials-in-applying-the-law-fairly-193379">the public’s confidence in the security of the elections</a> is more important than any partisan outcome. </p>
<p>Another key element of election integrity comes from the candidates. It’s important to <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-election-was-not-hacked-but-it-was-attacked-67511">public confidence in elections</a> that candidates be willing to express their own support for the voting system, including whatever measures are set up for integrity and recounting, even if that system delivers them a loss.</p>
<p>The basic proposition of democracy is that all candidates agree to a particular process, election managers do their best to ensure that process unfolds fairly, and everyone abides by whatever the results are, no matter who winds up losing. </p>
<p>Without mutual agreement on process, it is impossible to have an uncontested election, because a candidate who doesn’t like the outcome can always claim – even without evidence – that it was somehow unfair. </p>
<p>True democracies require candidates who agree on election rules and processes in advance and agree to abide by the outcome of elections, even when they wish the results were otherwise. The alternative is continuing instability and doubt in the electorate – an outcome that serves no citizen’s interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198043/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Herbert Lin has received funding indirectly from the Hewlett Foundation through Stanford University. He is a registered Republican but who he supports is a different matter. </span></em></p>The chaos in Brazil’s capital, along with the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in the US, demonstrate that there is a key human factor in election integrity.Herbert Lin, Senior Research Scholar for Cyber Policy and Security, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1979672023-01-19T14:50:22Z2023-01-19T14:50:22ZFive big challenges for Lula’s presidency of Brazil<p>The storming of democratic intuitions in <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-insurrection-how-so-many-brazilians-came-to-attack-their-own-government-197547">Brazil’s capital</a> – the supreme court, the national congress and the presidential palace – on January 8 further exposed the deep divide that the nation’s new government has to address. </p>
<p>Newly elected president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, now faces even greater challenges than he might have expected. Lula’s slogan – “union and reconstruction” – already recognised this divide. </p>
<p>However, the words in this slogan should not be <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-swift-and-robust-response-to-the-insurrection-highlights-the-strength-of-democracy-197456">equated</a> with an <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2023/01/governo-lula-lida-com-pressao-por-punicao-mas-discurso-de-anistia-resiste-na-oposicao-apos-ataques.shtml">amnesty</a> for or appeasement with the “enemies” of democracy and the rule of law. As Lula <a href="https://g1.globo.com/jornal-nacional/noticia/2023/01/11/lula-volta-a-defender-a-punicao-dos-participantes-e-financiadores-dos-ataques-terroristas.ghtml">said</a> in a meeting with politicians on January 11:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Any gesture that goes against Brazilian democracy will be punished within what the law provides for.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There are five central areas where the government must focus on to unite and reconstruct the country and deepen democracy.</p>
<h2>1. Creating political stability</h2>
<p>Lula’s first challenge will be to foster political stability. Bringing all 27 state governors <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/world/americas/2023/01/10/brazils-lula-says-coup-bid-will-fail-as-he-meets-countrys-governors/">together</a> after the riots in a show of support for democracy was no minor feat. However, <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazilian-election-jair-bolsonaro-set-to-lose-but-his-legacy-will-be-harder-to-remove-190862">it is clear that</a>, Bolsonarismo is still alive, and Lula now needs to open dialogue with political forces beyond the centre-left if he wants to govern.</p>
<p>In the first weeks of government, Lula’s government has already faced broad criticism – including from his party. The minister of defence, José Múcio, was criticised for his <a href="https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/ministro-da-defesa-diz-a-cnn-que-de-jeito-nenhum-deixara-o-governo/">lack of action</a> over the military’s failure to tackle the rioters. The minister of tourism, Daniela Carneiro, has also been criticised for her alleged <a href="https://www.istoedinheiro.com.br/quem-e-a-polemica-ministra-do-turismo-de-lula-envolvida-com-ex-pm-miliciano/">links</a> with militias in Rio de Janeiro.</p>
<p>Far-right politicians – including the sons of former president Jair Bolsonaro – are trying to blame the January 8 uprising on the current government by <a href="https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-64243831">arguing</a> that the crimes were committed by “infiltrated individuals”. The opposition is already showing it will be fierce and, on some occasions, will not <a href="https://www.estadao.com.br/economia/trabuco-bradesco-governo-lula-oposicao-conspiracao/">play fair</a>.</p>
<p>Lula will also have to keep an eye on those trying to fill the gap left by Bolsonaro. For instance, the Bolsonaro-supporting state governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema, went as far as <a href="https://veja.abril.com.br/coluna/radar/zema-diz-que-governo-lula-facilitou-ataque-no-df-para-se-fazer-de-vitima/">arguing</a>, “Lula’s government facilitated it to pose as a victim.”</p>
<h2>2. Stabilising state institutions</h2>
<p>Another challenge for the new government is sorting out state institutions. According to a <a href="https://congressoemfoco.uol.com.br/area/governo/retrato-do-desmonte-veja-a-integra-do-relatorio-da-transicao/">report</a> written by Lula’s transitional government and several <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/understanding-lula-3-0/">commentators</a>, four years of Bolsonaro’s government has left the Brazilian state in trouble. They claim funds were not properly allocated, transparency was lacking and state agencies were not performing their functions properly.</p>
<p>Key roles were also largely given to <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2023/01/16/bomb-suspect-bolsonaro/">Bolsonaristas</a>. These <a href="https://www.redebrasilatual.com.br/politica/militares-governo-bolsonaro-6-mil-cargos-civis/">include</a> military figures with no knowledge of the departments where they were allocated. </p>
<p>This is illustrated by a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9krblEk5c8g">statement</a> from Bolsonaro’s former health minister – during the COVID pandemic – General Eduardo Pazuello. He said, after he took office: “I did not even know what the National Health System was.”</p>
<p>Similar trends are seen in departments responsible for fighting <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/ambiente/2023/01/governo-lula-exonera-nomeados-de-bolsonaro-no-ibama-e-gerente-do-meio-ambiente-que-apoiou-golpistas.shtml">deforestation</a> in the Amazon. Rebuilding these departments will be a massive job.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1615824768175050752"}"></div></p>
<h2>3. Sorting out the military</h2>
<p>The military needs a separate <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-under-attack-in-brazil-5-questions-about-the-storming-of-congress-and-the-role-of-the-military-197396">approach</a> to other parts of the state. Elements of the military have been accused of being <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/17/americas/brazil-police-bolsonaro-congress-attack-intl-latam/index.html">involved in the uprising</a> and failing <a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-01-10/was-the-military-police-protecting-the-brazilian-rioters.html">to tackle</a> the rioters. Lula has announced he is removing 40 soldiers from the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20230118-brazil-s-lula-removes-soldiers-from-presidential-residence-after-riots">presidential palace detail</a>, a sign of his lack of faith in them after the riots.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro had a close relationship with the military. He launched his presidential bid at an event for army cadets in 2014 - these people are now in powerful positions. His government was filled with members of the military, from his vice-president, to various ministers and over 6,000 <a href="https://www.redebrasilatual.com.br/politica/militares-governo-bolsonaro-6-mil-cargos-civis/">troops</a> in different sectors of the administration.</p>
<p>Sections of the army appear to have <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-swift-and-robust-response-to-the-insurrection-highlights-the-strength-of-democracy-197456">been complicit</a> in setting up conditions for the uprising, and <a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-01-10/was-the-military-police-protecting-the-brazilian-rioters.html">not resolving it</a>. For months, antidemocratic groups were allowed to set up <a href="https://g1.globo.com/jornal-nacional/noticia/2023/01/09/acampamentos-de-golpistas-nas-imediacoes-de-quarteis-pelo-brasil-sao-desocupados-apos-ordem-de-moraes.ghtml">camps</a> around army barracks. Members of the military have, on some occasions, even <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/14/brazil-riot-investigation-military-collusion/">defended the protesters</a> against the <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2023/01/exercito-impede-entrada-da-pm-em-area-de-acampamento-bolsonarista-autoridades-estao-reunidas.shtml">intervention of state</a> and municipal security forces.</p>
<p>The army should also have been responsible for protecting the presidential palace, but were not deployed on Sunday after the rioters had already invaded the complex.</p>
<p>Various sources <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/chico-alves/2023/01/16/forcas-armadas-sujaram-as-fardas-com-golpismo.htm?">allege</a> that members of <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20230118-brazil-s-lula-removes-soldiers-from-presidential-residence-after-riots">the military</a>, retired <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20230111-brazil-issues-arrest-warrants-for-security-chiefs-after-pro-bolsonaro-riots">officers</a>, and their family members were involved the camps. There is even evidence that, after the attacks in Brasilia, the commandant of the army, General Júlio César de Arruda, was responsible for allowing some of those involved to flee, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/14/brazil-riot-investigation-military-collusion/">telling</a> the minister of justice, Flávio Dino: “You are not going to arrest people here.”</p>
<p>These allegations and the level of <a href="https://theintercept.com/2023/01/16/hora-de-apontar-o-dedo-para-forcas-armadas-e-desembarcar-do-cinismo-golpista/">involvement</a> of the army will have to be <a href="https://www.jota.info/opiniao-e-analise/artigos/bolsonarismo-e-violencia-politica-uma-questao-de-responsabilizacao-11012023">investigated</a> further.</p>
<h2>4. Addressing antidemocratic values</h2>
<p>There is evidence that a rise in antidemocratic values stem from <a href="https://infoamazonia.org/2023/01/12/ministerio-da-justica-aponta-vinculo-de-setores-do-agro-com-atos-terroristas-em-brasilia/">agribusiness</a>, the <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2023/01/destituicao-do-presidente-da-fiesp-foi-golpe-afirma-miguel-reale.ghtml">financial market</a>, <a href="https://theintercept.com/notas/pastores-evangelicos-participaram-atos-golpistas-contra-lula/">evangelical churches</a> and the <a href="https://www.metropoles.com/colunas/paulo-cappelli/comandante-retardou-tropa-para-invasores-fugirem">military police</a>. Some of these <a href="https://infoamazonia.org/2023/01/12/ministerio-da-justica-aponta-vinculo-de-setores-do-agro-com-atos-terroristas-em-brasilia/">sectors</a> seem to have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-crowdfunded-insurrection-leaves-paper-trail-police-2023-01-16/">supported</a> the uprising on January 8 and the anti-government <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2023/01/pastores-que-apoiaram-bolsonaro-condenam-vandalismo-em-brasilia-malafaia-diverge.shtml">narrative</a> afterwards.</p>
<p>In some cases, Lula’s government is already trying to <a href="https://br.noticias.yahoo.com/moraes-e-transi%C3%A7%C3%A3o-recebem-chefes-224200192.html">bridge the divide</a>. However, it is necessary to separate what is honest and constructive dissent with that which is <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/agencia-estado/2023/01/16/deputados-que-mentiram-sobre-ataque-a-camara-serao-responsabilizados-diz-lira.htm">unlawful</a> and <a href="https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2023/01/16/vereadora-e-14-suplentes-estao-entre-presos-por-atos-golpistas-em-brasilia.ghtml">criminal</a> opposition.</p>
<h2>5. Detoxing the internet</h2>
<p>In order to tackle these matters, it is vital for the government to oppose radicalisation and spread of <a href="https://oliverstuenkel.substack.com/p/fake-news-sao-questao-de-saude-publica?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf">fake news</a> online.</p>
<p>It has been argued that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/world/americas/brazil-online-content-misinformation.html">in Brazil</a> the internet cannot be a “no man’s land”. To address this, supreme court and superior electoral court judge Alexandre de Moraes is leading an investigation into those who spread fake news or antidemocratic speech online.</p>
<p>The government has <a href="https://revistaforum.com.br/politica/2023/1/15/ministro-paulo-pimenta-anuncia-rede-da-defesa-da-verdade-para-contrapor-fake-news-bolsonaristas-130137.html">proposed</a> a “network in defence of the truth” that will work online to counter fake news. Other measures to fight radicalisation and fake news are also under development, such as <a href="https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2023/01/05/entenda-a-discussao-sobre-a-procuradoria-de-defesa-da-democracia-anunciada-pela-agu.ghtml">specialised</a> state law offices to investigate and take legal action against those responsible for antidemocratic acts.</p>
<p>It is a difficult road ahead for Lula’s government. Nevertheless, the latest <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-swift-and-robust-response-to-the-insurrection-highlights-the-strength-of-democracy-197456">actions</a> and announcements of the government are a source of hope for those who support Brazilian democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felipe Tirado receives funding from the Centre for Doctoral Studies - King's College London.</span></em></p>Brazil’s president has some significant struggles ahead to bring the country together.Felipe Tirado, Visiting Lecturer in Jurisprudence, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1978382023-01-16T16:48:16Z2023-01-16T16:48:16ZBrazil’s military is supposed to safeguard democracy – yet its power and self-image are a problem<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-insurrection-how-so-many-brazilians-came-to-attack-their-own-government-197547">sacking</a> of the three buildings comprising the seat of government in Brasilia on January 8 was a reminder of an unresolved tension in the heart of the Brazilian state: the role of the armed forces. </p>
<p>As in many other democracies, Brazil’s armed forces are supposed to be apolitical servants of the executive branch and subordinate to their civilian commander-in-chief, the president. But the Brazilian officer corps sometimes behaves and speaks as the saviour of the nation. It claims to be the “<a href="https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft9b69p386&chunk.id=d0e4933&toc.id=d0e4855&brand=ucpress">moderating power</a>”, a role <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/the-constitutional-military-intervention-brazil-on-the-verge-of-democratic-breakdown/">some argue</a> is granted to them by <a href="https://www.cmi.no/publications/5241-for-the-guarantee-of-law-and-order">article 142 of the 1988 constitution</a>, which describes the military as the defender of “law and order”. </p>
<p>This belief is shared by a significant portion of the population – and the carnage of January 8 was the physical manifestation of the idea. A mob attacked the buildings housing of the main branches of government while calling for the armed forces <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/protesters-storm-brazils-government-calling-for-military-takeover/">to take power</a>.</p>
<p>Some sort of coup attempt had been feared ever since the former president, Jair Bolsonaro, was ousted in a tight election in November last year by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was previously president between 2003 and 2010. Bolsonaro’s supporters believed that their leader could induce the army to provide the muscle in an attempt to put Bolsonaro back into power and overturn the 2022 election. But that did not happen. It now appears that the armed forces used Bolsonaro more cleverly than he used them.</p>
<p>Under Bolsonaro, the military held <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/86f361a0-c78c-4683-8da1-b5e337c98365">more than 6,000 jobs</a> in the federal bureaucracy. It was able to obtain an exemption from pension reform, symbolising its privileged position within the state. </p>
<p>It achieved <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1866802X211039860">de facto control</a> over the ministry of defence and stifled the creation of a cadre of civilian experts in defence and security. And it won <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2020/03/bolsonaro-increases-military-spending-in-first-year-of-government.shtml">generous budgets</a> and big weapons programmes. </p>
<p>After Bolsonaro lost the election, the armed forces stood aside as Bolsonaro’s followers <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-election-denier-camps-incubators-terrorism-new-minister-says-2022-12-25/">established camps outside military barracks</a> around the country. And their response to the crowds storming the government buildings on January 8 <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/14/americas/brazil-congress-riots-timeline-intl-latam/index.html">has been criticised</a> as slow and, in some cases, inadequate.</p>
<h2>Too big for their boots</h2>
<p>But before we congratulate the armed forces for not participating in a coup d’etat, it is important to recognise how their self-aggrandising vision of their political mission remains a problem for Brazilian democracy.</p>
<p>Examples of the expression of this vision abound. One occurred recently. On December 30 2022 Bolsonaro left Brasilia for Florida in the US <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/09/1147812986/why-did-jair-bolsonaro-leave-brazil-for-florida">without having conceded the election</a>. On the contrary, he repeated his claims the election <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/world/americas/brazil-election-fraud.html">had been fraudulent</a> and made it clear he wouldn’t participate in Lula’s inauguration ceremony, a <a href="https://brazilreports.com/bolsonaro-misses-lulas-inauguration-breaks-tradition-of-passing-presidential-sash-to-successor/3546/">traditional role</a> for outgoing presidents in Brazil. </p>
<p>Bolsonaro’s departure from the country meant that Vice President Hamilton Mourao, a retired army general, became the acting president. And it was in this capacity that he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-acting-president-hits-out-silent-bolsonaro-new-year-speech-2023-01-01/">gave a televised address</a> to the nation on December 31 2022, saying that leaders who should have “pacified and united the nation around a project for the country … allowed silence or an inopportune and deleterious protagonism to create a climate of chaos and social disaggregation and in an irresponsible manner left the armed forces of all Brazilians to pay the bill”. </p>
<p>His words were <a href="https://canadatoday.news/ca/the-incumbent-brazilian-president-lashes-out-at-the-silent-bolsonaro-in-his-new-years-speech-209839/">interpreted as a criticism</a> of the supreme court and the Brazilian congress – but also of his own former president: Bolsonaro himself. </p>
<h2>Incendiary talk</h2>
<p>At this point thousands of protesters were encamped outside army bases around the country, including hundreds located outside a base in Brasilia. </p>
<p>While Mourao’s words were not well received by most of these protesters, they set up a dangerous dichotomy. On one side were the opportunistic, irresponsible, corrupt, self-serving and arrogant bosses in the supreme court, congress and much of the executive branch – politicians in it for themselves. </p>
<p>On the other side were the armed forces, older than the nation itself and moved by the values of hierarchy, discipline, order and love of country and the common good. </p>
<p>The protesters had been told that the election had been stolen. They had been told that the supreme court’s actions – such as the annulment of Lula’s conviction and the interventions against the spreading of “fake news” on social media during the election campaign – were illegitimate and that Lula should be in prison. </p>
<p>And so the protesters’ hopes became vested in the men in uniform who could intervene, as they had on so many other occasions in the nation’s history, including the founding of the republic in 1889, triggered by a military coup which <a href="http://countrystudies.us/brazil/15.htm">ousted Emperor Pedro II</a>. </p>
<p>This vision of army guardianship of Brazil, which is supported by so many people – despite its involvement in establishing the 21-year military dictatorship after the 1964 coup – is deeply rooted in the country. Brazil’s transition from democracy in the mid-1980s was unlike those of some of its neighbours, which also threw off rule by the generals in the same period. </p>
<p>In Argentina and Chile, for example, the return to a democratic regime <a href="https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1042&context=ppe_honors">was accompanied</a> by transitional justice, a reckoning with the past and a recognition that the <a href="https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/democracys-growing-pains-chile-and-argentina/">armed forces had strayed</a> from their constitutional mission.</p>
<p>This did not happen during Brazil’s transition, and later, limited attempts at accountability, such as the <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/978-1-349-95306-6_34">Truth Commission of 2012-2014</a>, were strongly rejected by the military. But, regardless of the reasons for its existence, the notion that the Brazilian military is a moderating power, and should be called in as the guarantor of Brazilian politics <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/08/democracy-brazil">whenever there is a crisis</a>, is alive and well with large sections of the population.</p>
<p>Important reforms aimed at strengthening civilian control over the military are now <a href="https://theintercept.com/2022/01/10/brazil-military-power-jair-bolsonaro/">being proposed</a>, and their consideration will generate vigorous debates. But the widespread belief that the armed forces are guardians of the nation is likely to remain alive long after Bolsonaro has faded into history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Pereira received funding from the British Academy and the Economic and Social Research Council in the past. He is an associate fellow at Canning House. </span></em></p>Brazil’s military portrays itself as guardian of the country’s democracy when it has often been anything but.Anthony Pereira, Director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1975302023-01-11T19:09:30Z2023-01-11T19:09:30ZWhat now for Brazil? President Lula strengthened, but Bolsonaro supporters won’t go quietly<p>On Sunday January 8, radical supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro invaded and vandalised buildings that house Brazil’s congress, supreme court and presidential palace.</p>
<p>Since then, over 1,500 people have been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-investigates-who-led-anti-democratic-riots-capital-2023-01-09/">detained</a>. </p>
<p>The Governor of the Federal District, legally responsible for guaranteeing order in Brasilia and protecting the executive government’s buildings, has been temporarily <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/brazil-justice-orders-federal-district-governor-removed-from-job?leadSource=uverify%20wall">ousted</a> from his position. Also, the governor’s former <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64228530">military police commander has been arrested</a>.</p>
<p>In this very initial post-riot moment, some early assessments can be drawn on the repercussions for current President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva and for Bolsonaro supporters. Firstly, that Lula seems to be paradoxically strengthened from this. </p>
<p>And secondly, while there has been little support for the riots from the general public, <em>Bolsonaristas</em> are far from being a weak group.</p>
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<h2>What now for Lula’s presidency?</h2>
<p>The attacks in Brasilia caused extensive material damage. However, they didn’t succeed in ousting Lula, or even in weakening his leadership.</p>
<p>Quite the opposite – Lula seems to be the one to have gained the most political capital in the immediate aftermath.</p>
<p>Even though he became president just over a week ago, this is his third time in the position. Regardless of whether one supports him or not, he has unparalleled experience in how to portray a position of power and confidence. He’s also known as an incredibly skilled politician with a particular ability to build political bridges. </p>
<p>A day after the attacks, Lula convened a meeting in Brasilia attended by <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/world/americas/2023/01/10/brazils-lula-says-coup-bid-will-fail-as-he-meets-countrys-governors/">all of Brazil’s 27 governors</a>, including some hardcore Bolsonaro supporters, along with members of the Supreme Court and powerful members of the Senate and the lower house. </p>
<p>He said the violent acts were unacceptable and those involved should be judged and punished under the law. The meeting finished with all of them walking – many hand-in-hand – from the presidential palace across to the Supreme Court (some 400 meters away) so everyone could witness the destruction first-hand.</p>
<p>Even if this was “just” a photo-op, it was a visible demonstration of institutional unity by members and leaders of the executive, legislative, and judiciary powers and of the federation.</p>
<p>Though how long this spirit will stay in place is anyone’s guess – this is politics, after all.</p>
<h2>What now for Bolsonaro supporters?</h2>
<p>This episode seems to have weakened <em>Bolsonaristas</em>, at least temporarily. But to dismiss or minimise their ongoing capacity to organise other violent events in the future would be not just wrong but dangerous. Toppling a democratic regime might be a very high bar to reach, but generating chaos and fear might be on the agenda for the next four years.</p>
<p>It’s important to note Bolsonaro supporters are not a homogenous group. Some are primarily against Lula or his party (the Workers’ Party), and supported Bolsonaro’s presidential bid so Lula wouldn’t win. Others have accepted Bolsonaro’s loss, even if painfully, but have carried on with their lives.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-iconic-football-shirt-was-a-symbol-of-bolsonaro-heres-how-the-world-cup-is-changing-that-195405">Brazil's iconic football shirt was a symbol of Bolsonaro – here's how the World Cup is changing that</a>
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<p>Neither of these groups were the ones vandalising public buildings or <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20230109-brazil-riots-raise-questions-of-efficiency-and-loyalty-of-security-forces">sleeping in tents outside of army walls</a> for weeks. So far, the impression is these more “moderate” supporters do not support what took place in Brasilia.</p>
<p>An analysis of over two million social media posts while the riots were happening showed <a href="https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/levantamento-mostra-que-90-das-redes-sociais-reprova-atos-terroristas">90% of the public’s comments were negative</a> towards the riots, mostly expressing sadness, fear and disgust. </p>
<p>So, it’s likely Bolsonaro supporters who defend the attacks on the capital are a relatively small group. Yet, they share a hardcore and radical view of Brazil.</p>
<p>Many of them are convinced Brazil needs to be “saved from communism”. The rioters see themselves as “true patriots”, the ones responsible for safeguarding God and family against the “red menace”. This Christmas, some <a href="https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/politica/2022/12/5056024-papai-noel-sofre-ataque-na-internet-apos-rumores-sobre-seu-voto.html">Bolsonaro supporters</a> and businesses even took issue with Santa Claus wearing red, given the association between the colour red and communism.</p>
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<p>Right now, only a handful of political figures are openly supporting the rioters. But some members of the armed forces and the police are <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-under-attack-in-brazil-5-questions-about-the-storming-of-congress-and-the-role-of-the-military-197396">backing the riots</a>. It’s not clear exactly how many police are in this camp or how willing they are to risk their jobs and support anti-democratic actions.</p>
<p>It’s also not yet clear whether this was the apex of violent attempts to oust Lula, or the beginning of what’s yet to come. The country is still rife with polarisation. </p>
<p>The challenge now in Brazil is to recreate the country’s political centre-right, which essentially evaporated in the last two elections, engulfed under Bolsonaro’s clout with the far-right. A centre-right that defends democratic values wouldn’t eliminate far-right radicals, but it would hopefully help in making them a fringe group.</p>
<p>Still, this is not a short term solution – if it is even a solution at all. Right now, there’s too much political tension in the air and any long-term assessments are unwise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197530/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah Barros Leal Farias does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rather than weaken or oust Lula, the riots seem to have paradoxically strengthened the president politically.Deborah Barros Leal Farias, Senior lecturer, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1975472023-01-10T21:34:02Z2023-01-10T21:34:02ZBrazil insurrection: how so many Brazilians came to attack their own government<p>The storming of the three main symbols of the Brazilian republic – the supreme court, the national congress and the presidential palace – is the kind of event that could shape the country’s history. While Brazil has <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-election-how-the-political-violence-of-the-countrys-history-has-re-emerged-190937">gone through military coups and social turmoil</a> since it became independent in 1822, never before have Brazilians witnessed such widespread disregard for political institutions. </p>
<p>This is a story that starts around 2018, when Jair Bolsonaro – then a lacklustre congressman <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/04/16/brazilian-congressman-who-lauds-alleged-torturer-lectures-police-trainees">known for</a> supporting the military dictatorship and publicly praising notorious torturers – launched his presidential candidacy. In the name of God, the fatherland and traditional family values, the retired army captain vowed to “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/08/opinion/brazil-election-bolsonaro-authoritarian.html">drain the swamp</a>” of politics and usher in a new era for Brazil. </p>
<p>In his vision, state policies would no longer be necessary. Political authority would naturally stem from business people, religious leaders, armed militiamen and – above all – the president’s messianic figure.</p>
<p>This combination of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv9hvtcf.12?seq=32#metadata_info_tab_contents">authoritarian populism and social Darwinism</a> is not new. It lies at the foundations of far-right movements that have <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/05/trump-putin-bibi-bolsonaro-right-wing-populism.html">gained momentum worldwide</a> in recent years. And it sheds light on the Bolsonarist phenomenon, helping us make sense of Brazil’s “black Sunday”.</p>
<p>Bolsonarism is a profoundly anti-democratic movement that conflates elements of the US far-right – most notably Trumpism – and Brazil’s long history of social inequality and militarism into a whole <a href="https://www.scielo.br/j/tla/a/Jbzm34pcQh78Wq4TpLdrQfP/?lang=en">new digital language</a>. WhatsApp and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/09/pro-bolsonaro-violence-social-media-platforms">social media</a> have been key to attracting supporters that have become increasingly suspicious of the political system over the previous decade. </p>
<p>This popular disillusionment among certain groups has been mostly due to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-35810578">corruption scandals</a>, growing urban violence and to policies under the then – and now again – president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/dec/19/brazil-bolsa-familia-political-tool-social-welfare">favoured Brazil’s poorest</a>.</p>
<p>In his path to the presidency, Bolsonaro was able to tap into people’s emotions. He brought millions of Brazilians together by mobilising elements of hatred, fear and resentment, and offered them something to fight against – namely, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/how-anti-communist-conspiracies-haunt-brazil/614665/">communism</a>.</p>
<h2>Undermining democracy</h2>
<p>For the start of his tenure, Bolsonaro moved decisively to undermine Brazil’s democratic institutions and state capacity on the grounds that he was <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220905-bolsonaro-s-brazil-four-dystopian-years">saving the country from communism</a>. By pitting his supporters against imaginary enemies he could successfully dodge accusations of incompetence, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/30/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-property-payments-cash-allegations">corruption</a> – and even <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/19/world/americas/bolsonaro-covid-19-brazil.html">crimes against public health</a> during the COVID pandemic which killed nearly 700,000 Brazilians.</p>
<p>The Bolsonaro administration’s survival might be down to the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45979682">loyal support of a coalition</a> of business people, the farming lobby, evangelical leaders and members of the armed and security forces. A key element of his governing strategy was to attack whoever spoke against the interests of these groups: the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jair-bolsonaro-ap-supreme-court-brazil-rio-de-janeiro-b2082137.html">supreme court</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/79fe5d26-621f-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5">congress</a> and the <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2020/07/brazil-president-bolsonaro-attacks-press-journalists.html">mainstream media</a> among his favourite targets.</p>
<p>There have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/06/brazil-warning-bolsonaro-may-be-planning-military-coup-amid-rallies">allegations</a> that on September 7 2021, Brazil’s independence day, Bolsonaro planned to summon supporters to cause turmoil in the streets across the nation. The idea was supposedly to justify a military takeover through a state of emergency. However, the higher ranks of the armed forces <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/9/8/22620570/bolsonaro-brazil-september-7-democracy-supreme-court">did not provide clear support</a>.</p>
<p>This does not mean that the military are innocent when it comes to the undermining of Brazilian democracy. On the contrary, they have systematically disregarded their constitutional role by engaging in <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/its-complicated-inside-bolsonaros-relationship-with-brazils-military/">partisan politics</a> and <a href="https://latinoamerica21.com/en/the-militarization-of-the-bolsonaro-administration/">taking up civilian positions</a> in the federal administration.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro’s sect of fanatical supporters seem to want Brazil’s far-right president to be the <a href="https://brazilian.report/power/2020/06/02/brazil-far-right-has-created-a-legal-way-to-stage-a-coup-bolsonaro/">country’s absolute ruler</a> even without the need for elections, following a distorted interpretation of the constitution. The military at least pretended they wanted elections to be held, but did not hesitate in joining the president’s <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/americas/brazil-defence-military-report-fraud-election-intl/index.html">chorus of electoral fraud</a>.</p>
<h2>Preparing the ground</h2>
<p>In October 2022, Bolsonaro faced a resurgent Lula in the presidential election. Anticipating defeat, the incumbent president spent months sowing suspicion over the voting machines and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/8/bolsonaro-election-fraud-claims-spark-unprecedented-crisis">questioning the integrity of the electoral process</a>. Bolsonaro’s loss by a thin margin after a run-off ballot was enough for him to refuse to concede. Large numbers of his 58 million voters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/world/americas/brazil-riots-bolsonaro-conspiracy-theories.html">followed suit</a>.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro’s silence for the two months between elections and Lula’s inauguration appears to have served as a nod and a wink to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/22/brazil-bolsonaro-militants-lefist-lula-president">rally his supporters</a>, who blocked roads, threatened political opponents and built camps in front of army barracks, all the while calling for military intervention. Days before the inauguration, the president fled the country, flying to Florida, suggesting that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-says-no-justification-attempted-terrorist-act-capital-2022-12-30/">his life was at risk</a> in Brazil. His supporters seem to have interpreted this as a call to action.</p>
<p>With this background, it was just a matter of time before the Brazilian version of the January 6 US Capitol riot took place. It seems that coup-mongers decided to act after Lula took office and counted on the complicity and negligence of Brazil’s armed forces and state security. </p>
<p>It was both embarrassing and shocking to see police officers <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/09/brazil-riot-telegram-organizers/">calmly sipping coconut water</a> while protesters stormed into Brasília’s main public buildings. Army soldiers who should have been securing the presidential palace did nothing as criminals <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2023/01/09/lula-rioters-stole-hds/">destroyed or stole works of art, furniture and government documents</a>.</p>
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<h2>Swift response</h2>
<p>Lula’s response <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-swift-and-robust-response-to-the-insurrection-highlights-the-strength-of-democracy-197456">has been swift</a>. He issued a decree establishing a federal military intervention in Brasília to stop the chaos, which has so far been responsible for the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/09/brazil-riots-police-let-protesters-says-lula-security-chief/">arrest of over 1,500 rioters</a>. We are also witnessing unprecedented coordination between executive and judiciary branches to investigate who is behind the attacks on Brazilian democracy.</p>
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<p>For Lula, it will now be crucial to identify and clamp down on the members of this violent far-right network. This does not mean only those who invaded the buildings, but also the people that funded them, who incited the protests and who created the narratives responsible for the coup-mongering of recent years. </p>
<p>If Lula’s mission is to bring the country together again, his administration must ensure that Brazil will no longer serve as a laboratory for extremist tactics and ideologies as it did over the past few years.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro, meanwhile, remains in hospital in Florida after complaining of intestinal pains related to a stabbing he suffered during the 2018 election campaign. He may have <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d1d1d91a-7fdc-47ef-9b81-a260432baa51">distanced himself</a> from the storming of the government buildings. But now the discussion will focus on whether – and when – he will return to Brazil and, if he does, whether he will face charges of inciting insurrection.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guilherme Casarões teaches Political Science at the São Paulo School of Business at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Brazil and is a senior researcher at the Brazilian Center of International Relations (CEBRI).</span></em></p>Ousted right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro had been mobilising supporters with talk of electoral fraud.Guilherme Casarões, Professor of Political Science, Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV/EAESP)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1931492023-01-10T20:38:49Z2023-01-10T20:38:49ZAfter Bolsonaro supporters’ siege in Brasilia, Lula must reunite society – and his approach could not be more different than his predecessor’s<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503680/original/file-20230109-9391-cgetts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2329%2C1604&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brazil's new President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (C) greets indigenous Brazilian leader and environmentalist Raoni Metuktire, known as Chief Raoni (3-R), and other community representatives after his inauguration ceremony on January 1, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://news.afp.com/#/c/main/search/photos?id=newsml.afp.com.20230101T210043Z.doc-336d4lb&type=photo">Sergio Lima/AFP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On 8 January, thousands of supporters of Brazil’s defeated former president, Jair Bolsonaro, <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-under-attack-in-brazil-5-questions-about-the-storming-of-congress-and-the-role-of-the-military-197396">stormed the country’s Congress, Supreme Court, and presidential offices</a>, rallying against what they falsely <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-bolsonaro-fraud-idUSL1N3341F4">claim was a rigged election</a>. The scenes, which took place almost exactly two years after the US Capitol attack on 6 January 2021, when thousands of Donald Trump backers illegally entered the Washington building, are a sign of the immense challenge that Lula faces as he seeks to reunite a sharply divided society just a week into administration.</p>
<p>In his inauguration speech on 1 January, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spoke alongside an Indian chief, a disabled boy and a metal worker, explicitly and implicitly putting inclusion and social unity at the centre of his agenda. As a scholar studying intergroup relations and discrimination in Brazil, I can attest that Lula’s approach will radically differ from Bolsonaro’s.</p>
<h2>Colourblind and multicultural approaches to diversity</h2>
<p>Since Bolsonaro took office in 2019, the number of invasions of indigenous lands has <a href="https://journals.librarypublishing.arizona.edu/jpe/article/id/2994/">almost tripled</a>. Brazil also has one the world’s <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-15103-y">highest number of homicides against the asexual, lesbian, gay, bisexual, and trans population</a>, with at least <a href="https://grupogaydabahia.files.wordpress.com/2022/05/mortes-violentas-de-lgbt-2021-versao-final_1-eng-4.pdf">300 people suffering violent deaths</a> (murders and suicides) in 2021 alone.</p>
<p>At an ideological level, the former president’s approach toward minorities – racial minorities such as black Brazilians and indigenous population, poor residents of Brazilian favelas and the LGBTQIA+ population – can be summed up with the concept of “colourblindness”. In 2018, Bolsonaro quite literally appeared alongside campaigners donning a T-shirt labelled “Minha cor é o Brasil” – “My colour is Brasil”.</p>
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<p>According to <a href="https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/clas/sites/default/files/Renno%202020.pdf">current research</a>, “colourblindness” involves ignoring differences within groups based on race, sexual orientation, ethnicity or other factors. Such a social-psychology approach argues that equality among groups is best gained by downplaying distinctions and treating people as unique individuals. Lula, by contrast, champions a <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-02998-005">multicultural strategy</a>, aiming to recognise and value all the differences between these diverse groups.</p>
<h2>The “colourblind” Brazil under Bolsonaro’s administration</h2>
<p>During his mandate, Bolsonaro articulated the vision of a homogenous, colourblind society with no particular racial, ethnic or sexual orientation, or other social group differences.</p>
<p>Interestingly, <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2013-03180-003">studies show</a> that individuals from dominant groups tend to <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2009-03773-010">lobby for colourblindness</a> as they may see it as a means of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15298868.2010.542015">maintaining their privileges</a> over marginalised groups. They may have a point: scholars <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13569310306082">have long established</a> that public policies that ignore group differences may hinder initiatives that seek to address injustices against the most vulnerable or stigmatised groups. In Brazil, this would translate into a status quo where white privileged heterosexual men will maintain their grip over power.</p>
<p>In fact, leaders who favour colourblindness policies tend to <a href="https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2020/11/20/mourao-lamenta-assassinato-de-homem-negro-em-mercado-mas-diz-que-no-brasil-nao-existe-racismo.ghtml">minimise racial discrimination</a> and the need to protect minority groups. For all of the denials, there was an <a href="https://repository.arizona.edu/bitstream/handle/10150/636332/Bacelar_da_Silva_and_Larkins_final.pdf">anti-blackness streak</a> to the Bolsonaro administration. In its annual study, the national confederation of <em>Quilombolas</em> (descendants of traditional runaway-slave communities) documented 16 instances of racist remarks made by his officials in 2019, 42 in 2020 and 36 in 2021.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Bolsonaro’s open disregard for indigenous groups’ <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/08/09/brazil-indigenous-rights-under-serious-threat">human rights</a> and <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/democraciaabierta/brazil-indigenous-lands-mobilisation-landowners-agribusiness/">land</a> has received more attention. He also consistently took market-oriented decisions that <a href="https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2020/11/20/no-brasil-nao-existe-racismo-diz-mourao-sobre-assassinato-de-negro-no-carrefour">benefit privileged groups</a>, including reduced export taxes and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20220926-brazil-s-agribusiness-sector-provides-fertile-ground-for-bolsonaro">reducing protection of indigenous lands</a> against agribusinesses.</p>
<p>Rather than a genuine belief, the Bolsonaro administration’s denial of racism and discrimination may have been a strategy to push aside social problems and inequality. Admitting that they existed could have <a href="https://economia.ig.com.br/empresas/2019-05-24/donos-da-riachuelo-havan-e-polishop-vao-apoiar-manifestacoes-pro-bolsonaro.html">created obstacles</a> to his liberal agenda, which was supported by many <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20220923-brazil-s-business-sector-still-supports-bolsonaro-but-with-reservationsl">major companies</a>, <a href="https://veja.abril.com.br/brasil/empresas-que-se-posicionam-na-politica-sofrem-com-ameacas-de-boicote">chain stores</a> and the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-agriculture/brazil-farm-lobby-wins-as-bolsonaro-grabs-control-over-indigenous-lands-idUSKCN1OW0OS">agribusiness sector</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503814/original/file-20230110-20-7rufid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503814/original/file-20230110-20-7rufid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503814/original/file-20230110-20-7rufid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503814/original/file-20230110-20-7rufid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503814/original/file-20230110-20-7rufid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503814/original/file-20230110-20-7rufid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503814/original/file-20230110-20-7rufid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters of the Brazilian former president (2003-2010) and presidential candidate for the Workers Party (PT), Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, attend a rally at the Complexo do Alemao favela in Rio de Janeiro in October 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://news.afp.com/#/c/main/search/photos?id=newsml.afp.com.20221012T160347Z.doc-32la3vl&type=photo">Carl De Souza/AFP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Favelas with Lula</h2>
<p>In contrast to Bolsonaro’s “colourblind” politics, my assessment is that <a href="https://lula.com.br/nilma-gomes-lula-ampliara-lei-de-cotas-e-combatera-liberacao-de-armas/">Lula government</a> will strive to recognise Brazilians’ diversity under a multicultural ideology, as was the case during his previous mandates. “Our policies to increase employment must have a focus – not only on race but also on gender”, a campaign representative <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/2022/09/lula-quer-politicas-publicas-com-recorte-de-genero-e-raca-diz-representante-da-campanha.shtml">confirmed recently</a>.</p>
<p>In the final weeks <a href="https://rioonwatch.org/?p=72324">before the presidential election</a>, Lula dedicated his campaign to “Favela com Lula” (favelas with Lula) and visited the Complexo de Favelas do Alemao, in Rio de Janeiro. <a href="https://mediatalks.uol.com.br/en/2021/12/31/community-newspapers-in-rio-de-janeiro-slums-fill-information-gaps-and-fight-stereotypes-to-produce-truly-local-journalism">Brazilian favelas</a> are ethnically diverse, with <a href="https://rioonwatch.org/?p=6913">67% of the 11.4 million residents self-reporting as black, while 32% perceive themselves as whites</a>.</p>
<p>During his visit, <a href="https://jc.ne10.uol.com.br/politica/2022/10/15098453-lula-vai-ao-complexo-do-alemao-e-se-compromete-a-realizar-conferencia-nacional-para-favelas-caso-eleito.html">he committed to measures</a> to protect stigmatised racial groups and <a href="https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/politica/2022/10/5043939-em-ato-no-complexo-do-alemao-lula-promete-investir-em-educacao-nas-favelas.html">residents of low-income regions</a> and the <a href="https://extra.globo.com/noticias/politica/lula-vai-ao-complexo-do-alemao-nesta-quarta-feira-em-busca-de-virada-no-rio-25587829.html">reduction of social inequalities</a>. These include affirmative policies such as quotas for racial minorities, housing and infrastructure targets in low-income regions, and a pledge to hold a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/13/lula-represents-hope-brazil-presidential-frontrunner-takes-his-message-into-rios-favelas">national conference</a> focused on the people of the favelas in the country during his mandate.</p>
<p>The new government’s multicultural ideology is reflected in its makeup. While Bolsonaro appointed only two women among his ministers, under Lula’s administration, [11 women took office in January](https://aamazonia.com.br/lula-completes-first-government-line-up-with-11-female-ministers-see-the-names-announced/?lang=en], equivalent to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-29/lula-taps-amazon-defender-new-ally-in-bid-to-diversify-cabinet">one third of cabinet positions</a>. A highly symbolic choice for <a href="https://aamazonia.com.br/a-breath-of-anti-racist-hope-say-activists-about-anielle-franco-future-minister-of-racial-equality/">minister of racial equality</a> was Annielle Franco – she’s the sister of councilwoman Marielle Franco, who was murdered in Rio de Janeiro and became a symbol of social, racial and gender violence in Brazil. Lula also broke the record of nominations for <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/01/02/lula-sworn-in-as-reconciliatory-president-rising-from-ashes-of-brazilian-politics_6010021_4.html">females and racial (e.g., black and indigenous) and sexual minorities in ministries since Brazilian’s re-democratisation</a>.</p>
<p>The inauguration speech of Lula’s new minister for human rights, the black philosopher Sílvio Almeida, shows a drastic contrast with the colourblind ideas and values of the Bolsonaro government. Speaking on 3 January, he addressed minorities – women, black, the poor, and the LGBTQA+ individuals – directly: <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2023/01/em-discurso-silvio-almeida-emociona-ao-declarar-que-negros-pobres-lgbt-e-mulheres-sao-valiosos-para-o-pais-veja-video.ghtml">“You exist and you are valuable to us”</a>.</p>
<h2>Brasília’s siege heralds some of the challenges ahead</h2>
<p>Whether this strategy has the potential to appeal to some of Bolsonaro’s backers – including those who stormed government buildings on Sunday – remains to be seen. Certainly, the incumbent president’s multicultural politics will face some challenges, with research showing they tend to leave <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2011-08638-001">privileged groups such as white individuals feeling excluded</a>.</p>
<p>Lula’s administration must engage the whole society on its diversity and inclusion effort and fight a critical component in the success or failure of diversity initiatives: reactions of whites and wealthy individuals to diversity and inclusion. Like as in many other countries, whites are <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3399239">overrepresented in leadership and higher-paid jobs</a> in Brazil.</p>
<p>Research shows that Lula’s administration must create diversity messages, practices, and policies that appeal to minority and privileged groups without alienating either one. An improvement of the economic conditions for all groups in the society, especially for middle-income Brazilians, could best help Lula overcome the resistance to the inclusion of non-dominant groups in his administration’s policies.</p>
<p>To minimise resistance to diversity-related programs, Lula’s ministers could also help frame diversity in ways that help build a culture of inclusion. Here it will be vital to <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2011-08638-001">adjust campaign wording</a> by highlighting the benefits of such politics for all, whites and minorities alike.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jorge Jacob ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>More than a week into administration, Lula’s multicultural politics could not stand in starker contrast to Bolsonaro’s colourblind stance. Could they bring the country together?Jorge Jacob, Professor of Behavioral Sciences, IÉSEG School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1974562023-01-09T21:22:07Z2023-01-09T21:22:07ZBrazil: swift and robust response to the insurrection highlights the strength of democracy<p>Brazil’s state institutions, including the recently installed government of Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, have reacted swiftly in the wake of the <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2023/01/08/bolsonaro-riot-congress/">riots in Brasilia</a> last weekend. Hundreds of rioters have already been arrested and the state governor of the federal district has been suspended for his sluggish and ineffective response. </p>
<p>Thousands of supporters of the ousted right-wing former president, Jair Bolsonaro, invaded the the Plaza of the Three Powers – the heart of government in the country’s capital – on Sunday January 8. They swarmed into the presidential Planalto palace as well as the national congress and federal supreme court buildings.</p>
<p>Policemen and journalists covering the riot were <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/deutschewelle/2023/01/09/cerca-de-1200-bolsonaristas-presos-em-brasilia.htm">injured</a> and weapons were <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/tomphillipsin/status/1612240426345418753">stolen</a> from the presidential security office. The bill for damage to public buildings, <a href="https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/obra-de-di-cavalcanti-danificada-por-criminosos-no-planalto-e-avaliada-em-r-8-milhoes/">works of art</a> and <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/cultura/noticia/2023/01/de-relogio-doado-por-corte-de-luis-xiv-a-tela-de-di-cavalcanti-veja-lista-com-obras-de-arte-danificadas-em-brasilia.ghtml">colonial-era furniture</a> is likely to run into millions of reals.</p>
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<p>While shocking, the riot was not unforeseen like the storming of the US capitol in 2021. <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazilian-election-jair-bolsonaro-set-to-lose-but-his-legacy-will-be-harder-to-remove-190862">Academics</a>, <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/agencia-estado/2022/07/07/fachin-brasil-pode-sofrer-atentado-mais-grave-do-que-a-invasao-ao-capitolio.htm">judges</a>, <a href="https://americasquarterly.org/article/reaction-brazils-capital-lives-its-january-invasion/">journalists</a> and politicians had all warned about its possibility. Much of Bolsonaro’s support base had not accepted the result of last October’s election and were openly discussing an attempt to seize back power. The US Capitol attack was repeatedly held up as a cautionary tale.</p>
<p>The riots had varying degrees of support from various sections of Brazil’s political right. This included from <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2022/11/16/financiamento-atos-pro-bolsonaro-relatorio.htm">businessmen, landowners</a>, some of the media and – in the most striking difference to the US – members of the armed forces and police.</p>
<p>Sections of the army <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fdfc63e5-4eb8-4e49-b16a-919e33c269e1">appear to have been complicit</a>. For months, anti-democratic groups have been allowed to set up camps around army barracks, which, on some occasions, have even <a href="https://www.metropoles.com/colunas/paulo-cappelli/exercito-monta-barreira-e-impede-pm-de-desmobilizar-acampamento-no-qg">defended the protesters</a> against the intervention of state and municipal security forces. </p>
<p>The army should also have been responsible for <a href="https://comeananas.news/plano-scooby-exercito-tem-ensaiado-protocolo-contra-invasao-do-palacio-do-planalto/">protecting the presidential palace</a>, but were not deployed on Sunday until the rioters had already <a href="https://www.metropoles.com/colunas/paulo-cappelli/exercito-tem-responsabilidade-na-invasao-ao-planalto">invaded the complex</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, the military police, who are responsible for patrolling assigned areas, also appear to have been supportive of the rioters. Police officers were seen <a href="https://www.istoedinheiro.com.br/parados-policias-tiram-fotos-enquanto-bolsonaristas-invadem-o-congresso-nacional/">taking pictures</a> with rioters and there were reports that the <a href="https://comeananas.news/plano-scooby-exercito-tem-ensaiado-protocolo-contra-invasao-do-palacio-do-planalto/">military police even escorted</a> some of them to the Plaza of the Three Powers.</p>
<p>Some media organisations, journalists and commentators have been accused of encouraging or defending the anti-democratic riot, notoriously the right-wing <a href="https://veja.abril.com.br/coluna/radar-economico/tutinha-deixa-presidencia-da-jovem-pan-em-meio-a-atos-golpistas/">Jovem Pan</a> and some of its <a href="https://www.msn.com/pt-br/noticias/brasil/comentarista-da-jovem-pan-defende-v%C3%A2ndalos-por-horas-no-ar-a-revolta-%C3%A9-leg%C3%ADtima/ar-AA166Utl">contributors</a>. But most journalists have been steadfast in their support for democracy and the rule of law.</p>
<h2>Restoring order and democracy</h2>
<p>Foreign <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/global-leaders-condemn-bolsonaro-supporters-assault-brazil-govt-buildings-2023-01-08/">governments</a> expressed outrage at the violence, and members of the US congress <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/01/08/bolsonaro-brazil-joaquin-castro-acostanr-intv-vpx.cnn">demanded the extradition of Bolsonaro</a>, who is currently in Florida, to Brazil. Meanwhile <a href="https://www.dw.com/pt-br/extrema-direita-assinou-o-seu-atestado-de-%C3%B3bito/a-64325405">Brazilian</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1612182026345484289">international</a> commentators have argued that this could be the beginning of the end of <em>Bolsonarismo</em>, because the episode will strengthen Lula’s legitimacy and allow him to use emergency measures to shore up his position. </p>
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<p>State institutions were swift to respond. The president issued a decree mandating <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2023/01/08/lula-intervention-brasilia/">federal intervention</a> in public security in Brasilia. The number two in the justice ministry, Ricardo Cappelli, has been given responsibility for overseeing the state security.</p>
<p>Justice minister, <a href="https://www.jota.info/opiniao-e-analise/artigos/flavio-dino-no-ministerio-da-justica-a-pessoa-certa-na-hora-certa-26122022">Flávio Dino</a>, <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/agencia-estado/2023/01/08/nao-conseguirao-destruir-a-democracia-brasileira-garante-flavio-dino.htm">told a press conference</a> that the riot involved “acts of terror”. He said the ministry would take necessary measures to ensure the maintenance of order in the capital and said Cappelli would be given all assistance to ensure this.</p>
<p>Supreme court judge Alexandre de Moraes <a href="https://www.jota.info/stf/do-supremo/moraes-afasta-o-governador-do-distrito-federal-ibaneis-rocha-09012023">suspended the governor of Brasilia</a> for 90 days on the grounds of “gross misconduct” during the crisis. Moraes is responsible for leading the investigation into anti-democratic acts. He also <a href="https://images.jota.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/moraes-afasta-governador-ibaneis.pdf">ordered the dismantling</a> of the pro-Bolsonaro camps and roadblocks within 24 hours. Moraes <a href="https://images.jota.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/moraes-afasta-governador-ibaneis.pdf">argued that</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Every single responsible person will be held accountable for acts that threaten democracy, the rule of law and institutions, including wilful connivance – by action or omission. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Lula and the presidents of congress and the supreme court met early yesterday morning to discuss further measures. After the meeting, they <a href="https://www.poder360.com.br/brasil/poderes-fazem-nota-em-conjunto-contra-atos-golpistas/">published a note</a> condemning the acts and stating that the three branches of government are “united so that institutional measures are taken, according to the law”. </p>
<p>January 8 has, if nothing else, highlighted the <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/political-terror-in-the-shade-of-bolsonarism/">anti-democratic nature of Bolsonarismo</a>. But it is possible to take a positive view of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-election-what-i-saw-on-the-streets-made-me-cautiously-optimistic-193418?">swift and robust nature</a> in which Brazil’s institutions reacted to this direct attack on Brazil’s constitutional order.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197456/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felipe Tirado receives funding from the Centre for Doctoral Studies - King's College London.</span></em></p>Hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters have been arrested and state governors read the riot act for disloyalty to the elected government.Felipe Tirado, Visiting Lecturer in Jurisprudence, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1973962023-01-09T04:17:54Z2023-01-09T04:17:54ZDemocracy under attack in Brazil: 5 questions about the storming of Congress and the role of the military<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503569/original/file-20230109-24-csu9q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C251%2C6679%2C4205&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro clash with security forces.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-former-president-jair-bolsonaro-clash-with-news-photo/1246099064?phrase=Brazil&adppopup=true">Joedson Alves/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Thousands of far-right supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-government-caribbean-0c03c098a5e2a09ac534412c30ae8355">stormed the country’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace</a> on Jan. 8, 2023.</em></p>
<p><em>In images similar to those from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/january-6-us-capitol-attack-128973">Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol</a>, demonstrators were seen overwhelming and beating police while breaching the security perimeter of the buildings.</em></p>
<p><em>It comes weeks after <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/30/1132561987/brazil-election-lula-da-silva">Bolsonaro was ousted in an election</a> that saw the return of leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The Conversation asked Rafael Ioris, an <a href="https://liberalarts.du.edu/about/people/rafael-r-ioris">expert on Brazilian politics at the University of Denver</a>, to explain the significance of the attack and what could happen next.</em></p>
<h2>Who was behind the storming of the Brazilian Congress?</h2>
<p>What we saw was thousands of hardcore supporters of Bolsonaro – those who share his extreme right-wing agenda – attempting to take matters into their own hands after the recent election. </p>
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<img alt="Scores of protestors in yellow and green stand on a structure with a white dome in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503551/original/file-20230109-17-yxxit5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503551/original/file-20230109-17-yxxit5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503551/original/file-20230109-17-yxxit5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503551/original/file-20230109-17-yxxit5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503551/original/file-20230109-17-yxxit5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503551/original/file-20230109-17-yxxit5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503551/original/file-20230109-17-yxxit5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Supporters of Brazilian former President Jair Bolsonaro invade the National Congress in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-brazilian-former-president-jair-bolsonaro-news-photo/1246096642?phrase=Brazil&adppopup=true">Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even though Bolsonaro wasn’t there in the capital while the attack took place – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/08/world/americas/bolsonaro-florida-brazil-protests.html">he was in Florida</a> – I believe he is ultimately responsible for what occurred. While he was in power he encouraged distrust in political institutions, <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/brazil/2021-11-01/democracy-dying-brazil">advocating the closure of Congress</a> and <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2022/09/07/bolsonaro-renews-attacks-supreme-court/">attacking the Supreme Court</a> – two of the institutions targeted by demonstrators.</p>
<p>Others were also behind what happened. Protests have been taking place for weeks, and there are big funders of the demonstrations, <a href="https://veja.abril.com.br/coluna/radar/alexandre-de-moraes-ordena-mega-acao-da-pf-contra-bolsonaristas/">such as large landowners and business groups</a> who helped pay for the busing in of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters to the capital, Brasilia.</p>
<p>And then there is the role of the military. Leading military figures have been supportive of Bolsonaro’s extreme right agenda for a long time and even recently have <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/world/americas/2022/11/18/brazil-militarys-tolerance-of-coup-demands-a-worry-for-lula/">displayed outright support for several pro-coup demonstrations unfolding in different parts of the country</a> in the lead-up to the attack. </p>
<p>The lack of security preventing the storming of key institutions in the capital also leads me to ask: Were they negligent, or were they complicit?</p>
<h2>Can you expand on the role of the military?</h2>
<p>Street security is not a responsibility of the armed forces, but the military’s <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/brazil/might-and-right-how-far-will-brazils-military-back-bolsonaro">continued support for Bolsanaro’s agenda</a> has helped provide legitimacy for the holding of such views among <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-governors-express-concern-bolsonaro-support-among-state-police-2021-08-24/">members of the state-run military police</a>. And it was the military police who were tasked with keeping the demonstrations in check in Brasilia.</p>
<p>The pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators are demanding a military intervention to overturn what they claim – with no evidence – to be a fraudulent election that saw Lula come to power.</p>
<p>Their hope is that senior members of the military – many of whom have expressed support for Bolsonaro and sympathy for the protest camps that have <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20221226-terrorists-threaten-brazil-s-presidential-inauguration-incoming-justice-minister">been set up near army bases</a> – would support the push to oust Lula.</p>
<p>Brazil has a long history of the armed forces not accepting civilian rule. The <a href="http://nytimes.com/1964/04/05/archives/brazil-coup-affects-whole-continent-overthrow-of-goulart-is.html">last military coup was in 1964</a>. Of course, circumstances are different now from then – when in the heat of the Cold War, the coup was supported by outside governments, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/blar.12518">including the U.S</a>.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro cultivated close ties to the Brazilian military by moving key military people into positions in government. Right-wing generals friendly with Bolsonaro became ministers of defense, chief of state and even the minister of health at the height of the COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, it is <a href="https://latinoamerica21.com/en/the-militarization-of-the-bolsonaro-administration/">estimated about 6,000 active military personnel were given jobs in nonmilitary positions</a> in government in the last eight years.</p>
<p>Some generals in both the Navy and the Air Force especially have <a href="https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2022/11/10/defense-ministry-voter-fraud-election/">been supporting the protests</a>. Since the election, you have had generals proclaim that demonstrations demanding military intervention were legitimate.</p>
<p>I think it is fair to say that segments of Brazil’s military were encouraging what happened. </p>
<p>But when it came down to it, the armed forces were quiet. The military may have nurtured the protest, but when it came to the idea of a traditional coup – tanks on the streets stuff – that just didn’t happen.</p>
<h2>So would you characterize this as an attempted coup?</h2>
<p>That is a central question. As events unfurled on Jan. 8, it looked more like a protest that got violent and out of hand – the level of destruction inside some of the buildings attests to that. </p>
<p>But it was weeks in the making and well financed, in that <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/01/08/brazil-bolsonaro-supporters-invade-congress-echo-pro-trump-jan-6-riot/">hundreds of buses were paid for</a> to get Bolsonaro supporters to the capital. And the expressed aim of many protesters was military intervention. So in that sense, I would say it more akin to an attempted coup.</p>
<h2>What does the attack tell us about democracy in Brazil?</h2>
<p>Brazil has been at a crossroads. The Bolsonaro presidency saw the country backslide on democracy, as trust in institutions eroded under attack from the president himself and through corruptions scandals. And <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-brazil-election/">close to half of the country voted for him</a> despite his record of undermining democracy. But the election of Lula seems to indicate that even more want to rebuild democratic institutions in the country after four years of attack from Bolsonaro.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A protestor in a yellow top is surrounded by a cloud of smoke." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503546/original/file-20230109-13-b6x4xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=27%2C46%2C6111%2C4040&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503546/original/file-20230109-13-b6x4xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503546/original/file-20230109-13-b6x4xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503546/original/file-20230109-13-b6x4xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503546/original/file-20230109-13-b6x4xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503546/original/file-20230109-13-b6x4xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503546/original/file-20230109-13-b6x4xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Democracy under attack in Brazil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-former-president-jair-bolsonaro-clash-with-news-photo/1246099103?phrase=Brazil&adppopup=true">Joedson Alves/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>So this could be a turning point. The media in Brazil has come out strongly in denouncing the actions of demonstrators. In the coming days and weeks, there will be investigations into what happened, and hopefully some degree of accountability. What will be key is Lula’s ability to address the anti-democractic elements of the military.</p>
<h2>Are comparisons to the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol valid?</h2>
<p>Trumpism and Bolsonarismo <a href="https://www.pacificcouncil.org/newsroom/similarities-and-differences-between-trump-and-bolsonaro">share a narrative</a> of stolen elections, with supporters drawn from the right who support issues such as gun rights and traditional family structures.</p>
<p>An important difference is the role of the military. Although former <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/capitol-riot-january-6-military-ties/">military personnel were at the Jan. 6 attack in D.C.</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-capitol-military/in-rare-joint-message-top-u-s-military-leaders-condemn-capitol-riot-idUSKBN29H2WF">top U.S. military figures condemned it</a>. Nor was the aim in the U.S. to see military intervention, unlike the Jan. 8, 2023, attack in Brasilia.</p>
<p>But there are clear parallels – in both we saw extreme right-wing, powerful groups and individuals refusing to accept the direction of a country and trying to storm institutions of power.</p>
<p>Now I’m wondering if there will also be parallels in what happens after the attack. </p>
<p>In the U.S., authorities have done a good job punishing a lot of people involved. I’m not sure we will see the same in Brazil, as they might need to confront powerful groups within the military and police forces around the country. So, democratic actors within and outside of the county will be essential in supporting the task of defending democracy in Brazil.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197396/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rafael R. Ioris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The sacking of key democratic institutions in Brasilia has parallels with the Jan. 6 assault on the US Capitol but was different in one key way: the position of the military.Rafael R. Ioris, Professor of Modern Latin America History, University of DenverLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1954052022-11-30T15:55:22Z2022-11-30T15:55:22ZBrazil’s iconic football shirt was a symbol of Bolsonaro – here’s how the World Cup is changing that<p>Like many extremist and authoritarian leaders before him, outgoing Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro <a href="https://brazilian.report/society/2019/09/07/right-wing-seized-brazil-national-symbols/">seized on national symbols</a> during his rise to power and tried to make them his own.</p>
<p>The national football shirt is a case in point. For years many Brazilians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/24/leftwing-brazilians-reclaim-football-jersey-bolsonaro-world-cup">avoided</a> wearing the famous yellow shirt because of its association with Bolsonaro and far-right politics. </p>
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<p>But this might be starting to change because of Brazil’s matches in the World Cup, and who the current team represent. The players come from many different regions of the country, faiths and political positions. Central players like Neymar Jr, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/nov/25/richarlison-brazilians-bolsonaro-world-cup-brazil">Richarlison</a> and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/18/football/vinicius-jr-racism-dancing-goal-celebration-spt-intl/index.html">Vinicius Jr</a> have widely different political perspectives. The first openly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/sep/30/brazil-neymar-bolsonaro-support-election">supports Bolsonaro</a>, the other two are seen as liberal. Richarlison, whose <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL0IkvLrQLM">acrobatic goal</a> attracted global attention, is famous for his progressive <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/jamil-chade/2022/11/25/richarlison-rompe-o-silencio-de-craques-e-chacoalha-as-estruturas-do-poder.htm">political stance</a> on and off the field. He made statements about the death of George Floyd, against the burning of Amazon rainforest and has advocated for vaccination against COVID-19. <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/18/football/vinicius-jr-racism-dancing-goal-celebration-spt-intl/index.html">Vinicius Jr</a> is also considered progressive and has been very vocal about anti-racism.</p>
<p>The team, therefore, crosses all <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/02/17/brazil-s-polarization-and-democratic-risks-pub-83783">sorts of divides</a> and may be bringing together supporters from across Brazil, who come from different political backgrounds, for the first time in a while. Bolsonaro sought to polarise the nation during his years in power, according to many commentators, using confrontational rhetoric and <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/02/17/brazil-s-polarization-and-democratic-risks-pub-83783">conspiracy theories</a>.</p>
<p>The question is whether Brazil’s performance in the World Cup can heal any of those divisions as the nation moves towards the inauguration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as president on January 1. In its first match, Brazil’s impressive performance against Serbia confirmed the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11/24/sports/world-cup-scores">high level</a> of its football, and brought crowds out on to the streets across the country. </p>
<p>During the game, many left-wingers – including <a href="https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1595887237400776704">president-elect Lula</a> – took their dusty yellow shirts out of the closets.</p>
<p>I was out in the streets of Belo Horizonte, in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, with friends during the Serbia game. After Brazil’s victory, the audience where I was – most of whom were wearing the national shirt – erupted, singing songs supporting Lula.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FNt2LSLGV6w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Brazil’s team on the way to qualification for the World Cup.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The support for the yellow shirt seemed to grow during the Brazil game against Switzerland. <a href="https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1597299115494641664">Lula</a> and members of the <a href="https://valor.globo.com/politica/noticia/2022/11/28/lula-assiste-vitria-do-brasil-contra-sua-com-a-equipe-de-transio-do-governo.ghtml">transitional government</a> again wore the national shirt while watching the game in Brasília, the nation’s capital. </p>
<p>While Lula watched the game in Brasília and Eduardo Bolsonaro, the congressman son of the outgoing president, watched the game in Doha, I went to the house of a friend’s family in Belo Horizonte. The streets along the way were crowded with people wearing the national football team shirt. On my way home, I saw people celebrating, singing and playing samba. Unlike in the past few years, the yellow shirt was everywhere.</p>
<h2>The history of Brazil’s football shirt</h2>
<p>The national football shirt is <a href="https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/politica/2022/11/5051711-uso-politico-da-camisa-da-selecao-faz-torcedor-buscar-outras-cores.html">an important symbol</a> in Brazil, due to the importance of football in the country’s culture. The incoming government believes that the World Cup poses a valuable opportunity to reclaim the national <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/24/leftwing-brazilians-reclaim-football-jersey-bolsonaro-world-cup">football team shirt</a>, along with other national symbols.</p>
<p>Before Bolsonaro’s rise to power, the national football shirt – along with the Brazilian flag – was initially used in <a href="https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/politica/2022/11/5051711-uso-politico-da-camisa-da-selecao-faz-torcedor-buscar-outras-cores.html">protests</a> against the left-wing Workers Party by unsatisfied portions of the population in 2013. During the 2018 elections, these symbols were used widely by Bolsonaro and his supporters.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-in-brazil-how-liberalisation-and-austerity-led-to-the-rise-of-lula-and-bolsonaro-146780">Populism in Brazil: how liberalisation and austerity led to the rise of Lula and Bolsonaro</a>
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<p>Over the past few years, Bolsonaro’s supporters have wrapped themselves in the football shirt and national flag in marches around the country. They argued that they were “taking the country back” and that the Brazilian flag “would never be red” – in reference to an imagined communist threat. Only during and after the recent presidential election have these symbols started to be “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/geral-63260840">retaken</a>” by the incoming government.</p>
<p>A similar trend of “owning” national symbols was observed during the government of former US president <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/bonikowski/files/bonikowski_-_trumps_populism.pdf">Donald Trump</a> and leaders of the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Carole-Mathis-2/publication/335504994_National_symbols_and_emotions_in_the_Brexit_Leave_campaign/links/5d69716b299bf1808d59b82a/National-symbols-and-emotions-in-the-Brexit-Leave-campaign.pdf">Brexit</a> movement in the UK. Like Bolsonaro in Brazil, members of both movements attempted to capture national symbols, including flags, and vowed to “take back” their countries.</p>
<h2>Bolsonaro’s next move</h2>
<p>After his defeat in the 2022 presidential <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazilian-election-jair-bolsonaro-set-to-lose-but-his-legacy-will-be-harder-to-remove-190862">elections</a>, Bolsonaro has rarely left his official <a href="https://www.em.com.br/app/noticia/politica/2022/11/23/interna_politica,1424713/bolsonaro-volta-ao-planalto-apos-20-dias-de-ausencia-do-trabalho.shtml">residence</a>, and has not even mentioned watching the World Cup. In recent weeks, the president faced a series of <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-election-what-i-saw-on-the-streets-made-me-cautiously-optimistic-193418">political</a>, legal and symbolic defeats.</p>
<p>Some of Bolsonaro’s main political allies in Congress are starting to <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2022/11/lira-tem-sido-colaborativo-e-pode-compor-base-de-lula-diz-lider-do-pt.shtml">side</a> with Lula. The president also faces <a href="https://www.metropoles.com/colunas/guilherme-amado/bolsonaro-responde-a-doze-acoes-no-tse-que-podem-o-deixar-inelegivel">various</a> challenges in the electoral courts. Most recently, his party lost its <a href="https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2022/11/23/moraes-decisao-pl-relatorio-urnas.ghtml">last claim</a> contesting the results of the elections in the superior electoral court. The court <a href="https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2022/11/23/moraes-decisao-pl-relatorio-urnas.ghtml">fined</a> the party BRL 22.9 million (£3.5 million) for making unfounded allegations that threatened the electoral process.</p>
<p>Bolsonarismo is still very much <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazilian-election-jair-bolsonaro-set-to-lose-but-his-legacy-will-be-harder-to-remove-190862">alive</a>. However, despite a few deluded supporters crying out for military intervention and criminals perpetrating <a href="https://theintercept.com/2022/11/26/terrorismo-bolsonarista-golpista-judiciario/">acts of terror</a>, things seem to be returning to some normality. </p>
<p>In the coming months, many Brazilians are hopeful that, while support for Bolsonaro will not disappear, the famous yellow shirt will be retaken as a symbol of the nation as a whole.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195405/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felipe Tirado receives funding from the Centre for Doctoral Studies - King's College London.</span></em></p>Support for Brazil’s football team may be breaking down political division in the country, at least for now.Felipe Tirado, Visiting Lecturer in Jurisprudence, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948002022-11-18T13:31:25Z2022-11-18T13:31:25ZEnding Amazon deforestation: 4 essential reads about the future of the world’s largest rainforest<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495894/original/file-20221117-26-53xlp9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C5%2C3781%2C2519&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A burnt area in Amazonas state, Brazil, Sept. 21, 2022. Fires in the Amazon are often set to clear land.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-a-burnt-are-of-the-amazonia-rainforest-in-apui-news-photo/1243414040">Michael Dantas/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Brazil’s president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was greeted with applause and cheers when he addressed the U.N. climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on Nov. 16, 2022. As he had in his campaign, Lula pledged to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/brazils-lula-put-climate-center-first-post-election-speech-abroad-2022-11-16/">stop rampant deforestation in the Amazon</a>, which his predecessor, Jair Bolsanaro, had encouraged. </p>
<p>Forests play a critical role in slowing climate change by taking up carbon dioxide, and the Amazon rainforest absorbs <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/amazon-deforestation-and-climate-change">one-fourth of the CO2 absorbed by all the land on Earth</a>. These articles from The Conversation’s archive examine stresses on the Amazon and the Indigenous groups who live there.</p>
<h2>1. Massive losses</h2>
<p>The Amazon rainforest is vast, covering some 2.3 million square miles (6 million square kilometers). It extends over eight countries, with about 60% of it in Brazil. And the destruction occurring there is also enormous. </p>
<p>From 2010 to 2019, the Amazon lost <a href="https://theconversation.com/statistic-of-the-decade-the-massive-deforestation-of-the-amazon-128307">24,000 square miles</a> (62,000 square kilometers) of forest – the equivalent of about 10.3 million U.S. football fields. Much of this land was turned into cattle ranches, farms and palm oil plantations.</p>
<p>“There are a number of reasons why this deforestation matters – financial, environmental and social,” wrote Washington University in St. Louis data scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=UtiewDkAAAAJ&hl=en">Liberty Vittert</a>, explaining why she and other judges chose Amazon deforestation as the Royal Statistical Society’s International Statistic of the Decade. </p>
<p>Forest clearance in the region threatens people, wild species and freshwater supplies along with the climate. “The farmers, commercial interest groups and others looking for cheap land all have a clear vested interest in deforestation going ahead, but any possible short-term gain is clearly outweighed by long-term loss,” Vittert concluded.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495887/original/file-20221117-16-nvekis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of the Amazon region showing forest loss from 2001 to 2020, much of it in Brazil." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495887/original/file-20221117-16-nvekis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495887/original/file-20221117-16-nvekis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495887/original/file-20221117-16-nvekis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495887/original/file-20221117-16-nvekis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495887/original/file-20221117-16-nvekis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495887/original/file-20221117-16-nvekis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495887/original/file-20221117-16-nvekis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Scientists estimate that 17%-20% of the Amazon has been destroyed over the past 50 years. Some researchers believe that at 20%-25% deforestation, the forest’s wet, tropical climate could begin to dry out in a phenomenon known as ‘dieback.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/deforestation-brazils-amazon-has-reached-record-high-whats-being-done">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/statistic-of-the-decade-the-massive-deforestation-of-the-amazon-128307">Statistic of the decade: The massive deforestation of the Amazon</a>
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<hr>
<h2>2. Legalizing land grabs</h2>
<p>Much of the Amazon has been under state control for decades. In the 1970s, Brazil’s military government started encouraging farmers and miners to move into the region to spur economic development, while also setting some zones aside for conservation. More recently, however, Brazil’s government has <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">made it easier for wealthy interests</a> to seize large swaths of land – including in conservation areas and Indigenous territories.</p>
<p>Reviewing national laws and land holdings, University of Florida geographers <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Gabriel-Cardoso-Carrero">Gabriel Cardoso Carrero</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qcS5yogAAAAJ&hl=en">Cynthia S. Simmons</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PTEKYYoAAAAJ&hl=en">Robert T. Walker</a> found that Brazil’s National Congress was expanding the legal size of private holdings in the Amazon even before Bolsonaro was elected in 2019. </p>
<p>In southern Amazonas state, Amazonia’s most active deforestation frontier, rates of deforestation started to rise in 2012 because of loosened regulatory oversight. The number and size of clearings that the researchers identified using satellite data increased after Bolsonaro took office.</p>
<p>“Because of policy interventions and the greening of agricultural supply chains, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell after 2005, reaching a low point in 2012, when it began trending up again because of weakening environmental governance and reduced surveillance,” they observed. “In our view, the global community can help by insisting that supply chains for Amazonian beef and soybean products originate on lands deforested long ago and whose legality is long-standing.”</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CR5xL9WoVm8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Amazon overall is still a net absorber of carbon dioxide, but a recent study found that deforestation was turning parts of the Brazilian Amazon into net carbon sources.</span></figcaption>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">The great Amazon land grab – how Brazil's government is clearing the way for deforestation</a>
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<h2>3. Indigenous resistance</h2>
<p>Road building in the Amazon, which increased dramatically during Bolsonaro’s tenure, brings development and related threats like wildfires into wild areas. University of Richmond geographer <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David-Salisbury">David Salisbury</a> also saw it as an <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-defenders-stand-between-illegal-roads-and-survival-of-the-amazon-rainforest-brazils-election-could-be-a-turning-point-190550">existential threat to Indigenous communities</a>. </p>
<p>Indigenous residents of the Brazilian-Peruvian borderlands where Salisbury worked “understand that the loggers and their tractors and chainsaws are the sharp point of a road allowing coca growers, land traffickers and others access to traditional Indigenous territories and resources,” Salisbury reported. “They also realize that their Indigenous communities may be all that stands in defense of the forest and stops invaders and road builders.”</p>
<p>Several Indigenous women won office as federal deputies in Brazil’s recent elections, and Lula has pledged to <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-defenders-stand-between-illegal-roads-and-survival-of-the-amazon-rainforest-brazils-election-could-be-a-turning-point-190550">protect Indigenous people’s rights</a>. Salisbury saw it as crucial to ensure that Indigenous defenders of the Amazon receive “the support and educational opportunities needed to be safe, prosperous and empowered to protect their rainforest home.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Animation of map changes and close up of one area year to year" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487180/original/file-20220928-20-lc39rq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487180/original/file-20220928-20-lc39rq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487180/original/file-20220928-20-lc39rq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487180/original/file-20220928-20-lc39rq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487180/original/file-20220928-20-lc39rq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487180/original/file-20220928-20-lc39rq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487180/original/file-20220928-20-lc39rq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">How road building leads to the rapid deforestation of surrounding lands. The satellite maps show road expansion from 2003 to 2021 into the Serra do Divisor National Park and its buffer zone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yunuen Reygadas/ABSAT/University of Richmond</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-defenders-stand-between-illegal-roads-and-survival-of-the-amazon-rainforest-brazils-election-could-be-a-turning-point-190550">Indigenous defenders stand between illegal roads and survival of the Amazon rainforest – Brazil's election could be a turning point</a>
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<h2>4. Five global deforestation drivers: Beef, soy, palm oil, wood – and crime</h2>
<p>A small handful of highly lucrative commodities are the main causes of deforestation in the Amazon and other tropical regions around the world. In Brazil, much of the land is cleared for raising beef cattle or cultivating soy. In Indonesia and Malaysia, palm oil production is spurring large-scale rainforest destruction. Wood production, for pulp and paper products as well as fuel, is also a major driver in Asia and Africa.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495750/original/file-20221116-12-yeiuzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bearded man at a lectern in front of a sign reading 'Global Climate Action.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495750/original/file-20221116-12-yeiuzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495750/original/file-20221116-12-yeiuzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495750/original/file-20221116-12-yeiuzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495750/original/file-20221116-12-yeiuzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495750/original/file-20221116-12-yeiuzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495750/original/file-20221116-12-yeiuzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495750/original/file-20221116-12-yeiuzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, president-elect of Brazil, speaks at the U.N. Climate Summit, COP27, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, Nov. 16, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dpatop-16-november-2022-egypt-scharm-el-scheich-luiz-inacio-news-photo/1244827637">Christophe Gateau/picture alliance via Getty Images.</a></span>
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<p>“Making the supply chains for these four commodities more sustainable is an important strategy for reducing deforestation,” wrote Texas State University geographer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BA2cjRgAAAAJ&hl=en">Jennifer Devine</a>. But Devine also found a fifth factor interwoven with these four industries: organized crime.</p>
<p>“Large, lucrative industries offer opportunities to move and launder money; as a result, in many parts of the world, deforestation is driven by the drug trade,” she reported. In the Amazon, for example, drug traffickers are illegally logging forests and <a href="https://theconversation.com/organized-crime-is-a-top-driver-of-global-deforestation-along-with-beef-soy-palm-oil-and-wood-products-170906">hiding cocaine in timber shipments to Europe</a>. </p>
<p>“Promoting sustainable production and consumption are critical to halting deforestation worldwide. But in my view, national and industry leaders also have to root organized crime and illicit markets out of these commodity chains,” Devine concluded.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/organized-crime-is-a-top-driver-of-global-deforestation-along-with-beef-soy-palm-oil-and-wood-products-170906">Organized crime is a top driver of global deforestation – along with beef, soy, palm oil and wood products</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archive.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194800/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva says he will end land clearance in Brazil’s Amazon region. But powerful forces profit from rainforest destruction.Jennifer Weeks, Senior Environment + Cities Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1938832022-11-10T17:13:35Z2022-11-10T17:13:35ZBrazil: the new president inherits massive economic and environmental problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494649/original/file-20221110-26-emob5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3877%2C2569&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Plenty for the president-elect to think about.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Marcus Mendes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/30/lula-stages-astonishing-comeback-to-beat-bolsonaro-in-brazil-election">newly elected</a> president of Brazil is an experienced politician, having already served two terms in the role. But Lula da Silva will take the reins of a country that looks very different from the one he presided over before.</p>
<p>Much of this change was caused by COVID. Brazil had the world’s second-highest death toll (after the US) and the government spent <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/152609c9-8162-4bdc-aeef-4c3f8829d66f">about US$60 billion</a> (£52 billion) in mitigation measures, including cash transfers to the poorest. </p>
<p>Such high levels of <a href="https://theprisma.co.uk/2022/10/17/brazil-a-general-contempt-for-human-life/">public spending</a> by President Bolsonaro (which some viewed as a ploy to boost his popularity ahead of the 2022 election) have significantly deepened the country’s level of debt. </p>
<p>Now the country faces a serious economic hangover. Restoring fiscal sustainability is Lula’s first major task, as he attempts to strike a difficult balance between protecting the poor and ensuring sustainable public finances.</p>
<p>The international context for this could hardly be more challenging. <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/11/03/elliott-warns-hyperinflation-global-societal-collapse-financial-crisis/">Global levels</a> of inflation and interest rates, as well as supply constraints caused by Russia’s war with Ukraine have drastically increased the cost of imported goods. </p>
<p>In the past, high commodity prices had supported Brazil’s growth, given its substantial exports of things like iron and oil. But the situation today is very different. China, Brazil’s largest trading partner, has seen a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a53c4f92-0999-4cd1-beb7-c901c0f6cb19">cooling of its economic growth</a>, and the price of those same commodities has decreased. </p>
<p>Added to this, Brazil remains a relatively closed economy that has failed to diversify away from mining and agribusiness. And while the farming industry accounts for over a <a href="https://g1.globo.com/economia/agronegocios/noticia/2021/03/11/agronegocio-cresce-243percent-em-2020-e-responde-por-mais-de-um-quarto-do-pib-do-brasil-diz-cna-1.ghtml">quarter of Brazil’s GDP</a>, with the country’s exports of crops and meat totalling US$100 billion in 2021, the sector does not have enough scope to provide new jobs, limiting national prospects of employment recovery. </p>
<p>Despite a recent decrease, <a href="https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room/2185-news-agency/releases-en/35304-continuous-pnad-unemployment-rate-is-8-7-underutilization-rate-is-20-1-in-quarter-ending-in-september">unemployment levels</a> in Brazil remain high. And combined with inflation rates of around 8% this year this is hurting the poorest most, causing 33 million <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jair-bolsonaro-elections-caribbean-presidential-business-9bf9953778a0a227ad4b6708c879d9f0">Brazilians to go hungry</a> – an increase of 14 million compared with two years ago.</p>
<p>But Lula has some form in this regard. While in office from 2003 to 2011 <a href="https://www.cps.fgv.br/cps/bd/papers/es86-Poverty-Reduction-and-Well-Being-Lulas-Real.pdf">he was credited</a> with lifting 33 million people out of poverty, reducing extreme poverty by 25%, and expanding access to healthcare and education. </p>
<p>Now protecting the poorest and most vulnerable could not be more urgent – but the global and national economic picture gives him little room for manoeuvre. One option open to him is to focus on attracting green international investment by developing Brazil’s <a href="https://www.evwind.es/2022/08/24/brazil-with-great-potential-for-solar-and-wind-energy/87534">flourishing renewable energy sector</a> and acting quickly on his campaign promises to eradicate deforestation in the Amazon. </p>
<p>But Lula will need to reassure investors over his broader vision and economic plans. During his campaign he promised <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-27/brazil-markets-rally-as-lula-pledges-fiscal-responsibility#xj4y7vzkg">higher welfare spending and higher investment, but also fiscal responsibility</a>. There have been no indications of how he will pay for his spending wish list so far. </p>
<h2>Negotiation over confrontation</h2>
<p>Yet his commitments to prosperity and the protection of the Amazon seem sincere. Within hours of winning the presidency <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/30/lula-stages-astonishing-comeback-to-beat-bolsonaro-in-brazil-election">he pledged</a> to halt the destruction of the rainforest and restore Brazil’s credibility as an international leader on climate issues. </p>
<p>These are <a href="https://theconversation.com/lulas-victory-in-brazil-comes-just-in-time-to-save-the-amazon-can-he-do-it-193618">immense tasks</a>. Bolsonaro was elected on an anti-environmental platform back in 2018, and deforestation had soon reached <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-deforestation-data-shows-22-annual-jump-clearing-amazon-2021-11-18/">its highest level in 15 years</a>. Every day, an area of the Amazon <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/11/04/brazil-lula-should-urgently-address-amazon-crisis">the size of 2,000 football pitches</a> is eradicated and prepared for crops or pastures.</p>
<p>The Bolsonaro government <a href="https://theconversation.com/lulas-victory-in-brazil-comes-just-in-time-to-save-the-amazon-can-he-do-it-193618">weakened environment protection agencies</a> at the same time as it empowered the powerful agricultural industry that harms indigenous people and the forest they live in. Some environmental experts have argued that, while the goal of zero deforestation is credible, it is <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8ce01a8c-6deb-45c6-95cb-99a66d4a84a3">practically impossible</a> within the next decade.</p>
<p>Brazil is also deeply divided after four years of polarisation and <a href="https://brazilian.report/power/2022/09/13/radical-rhetoric-political-violence/?mc_cid=c4424dd3b1&mc_eid=88a34429a6">political violence</a>. Nearly half the country did not vote for him, and many did so only to keep Bolsonaro out. The fact that many pro-Bolsonaro politicians were re-elected means the new president will have to make concessions and secure the support of opposition parties if he wants to implement changes. </p>
<p>Equally important is the need to consolidate Brazilian democracy after years of erosion. Bolsonaro implemented a massive return of the military to national political life. Today they occupy more positions in the public administration than during the 1964-84 dictatorship. </p>
<p>Establishing the preponderance of civil power over the Armed Forces is crucial for the democratic strengthening of Brazil.</p>
<p>A glimmer of hope lies in the fact that as one of the few heads of state to command respect from nations as diverse as the US, China, Germany and Russia, Lula may prioritise negotiation over confrontation. In a polarised world maybe he is the one who can promote peace and stability, and live up to some of the great expectations Brazilians have placed on his shoulders.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicolas Forsans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lula’s international reputation could be key to the country’s success.Nicolas Forsans, Professor of Management and co-director of the Centre for Latin American & Caribbean Studies, University of Essex, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.