tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/kamuzu-banda-37108/articlesKamuzu Banda – The Conversation2020-06-29T15:32:10Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1416522020-06-29T15:32:10Z2020-06-29T15:32:10ZChakwera has his work cut out restoring democratic rule that delivers for Malawians<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344559/original/file-20200629-155349-gqpm6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lazarus Chakwera, the new president of Malawi
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amos Gumulira/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53210473">Lazarus Chakwera’s</a> victory as the new president of Malawi represents a remarkable reversal of fortunes for Peter Mutharika, who almost a year ago was declared the winner in national polls. But the decision <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/malawi-court-rejects-president-appeal-poll-annulment-200508140237123.html">was annulled</a> by the country’s judges, and a date for a new election set. </p>
<p>The outcome has been greeted with euphoria by the victor and his supporters. But as this subsides, the hard, long work begins.</p>
<p>Close to the top of the list of big problems facing the country is that it’s starkly divided along ethnic and regional lines. Chakwera’s Malawi Congress Party enjoys support from the central and northern parts of the country, while Mutharika’s <a href="http://www.cmdmw.org/31-cmd-m/cmd-members/69-the-democratic-progressive-party-dpp">Democratic Progressive Party</a> is strong in the south. </p>
<p>The second challenge is that the country’s judges, in annulling last year’s poll, <a href="http://constitutionnet.org/news/malawis-nullified-presidential-elections-and-plurality-vs-majoritarian-run-debate">set down new election rules</a>. The rerun winner would have to garner more than half of the vote. This replaced the “first past the post” system.</p>
<p>The danger is that a combination of ethnic and regionalised voting and a run-off system may encourage party proliferation and fragmentation. </p>
<p>Chakwera has his work cut out. He leads a party which was at the forefront of the country’s fight for independence from Britain and went on to rule during the 27-year dictatorship of Hastings Banda. This was ended by the country’s first multi-party elections in 1994. </p>
<p>For the rerun he formed an alliance with Saulos Chilima, the former vice-president. Chilima will now serve as Chakwera’s deputy.</p>
<p>Chakwera will need to build consensus to ensure that the new electoral laws don’t worsen tensions in the country. And he will need to forge a new kind of politics that balances cooperation with competition.</p>
<h2>The back story</h2>
<p>Chakwera might just have what it takes to build bridges. </p>
<p>He was president of the Malawi Assemblies of God, <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/chakwera-steps-down-as-malawi-assemblies-of-god-president-to-concentrate-on-front-line-politics/">the world’s largest Pentecostal denomination</a>, for more than two decades. He also has a background in philosophy and served as a theology lecturer and preacher.</p>
<p>Chakwera emerged as a prominent political voice following his registration in the 2014 elections as presidential candidate for the opposition Malawi Congress Party. He lost to Mutharika but continued to serve as the party’s leader and member of the National Assembly.</p>
<p>He stood against Mutharika again last year. Initial announcements declared Mutharika president with over 38%. But Chakwera (who came second with about 35%) and Chilema (who came third with 20%) challenged the outcome. The country’s judges <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/malawi-court-rejects-president-appeal-poll-annulment-200508140237123.html">annulled the elections</a> for failing acceptable levels of electoral integrity.</p>
<p>Chakwera’s victory is remarkable in that it’s the first time in Africa that a repeat presidential election rerun has resulted in a reversal of outcomes. The only repeat rerun that’s been held was in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/01/kenyan-supreme-court-annuls-uhuru-kenyatta-election-victory">Kenya in 2017</a>. But the poll ordered by the courts didn’t reverse the outcome. </p>
<p>The election result strengthens Malawi’s opposition. Chakwera’s victory means that three of the country’s six competitive presidential elections have been won by opposition candidates.</p>
<p>For this remarkable turnaround, a number of factors came into play.</p>
<p>The first was that Malawians protested regularly against manifest irregularities in the 2019 elections. And the military protected protesters. Another major factor was that the opposition coalesced around the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Tonse-Alliance-102514481468318/">Tonse Alliance</a>, mainly between Chakwera and Chilema.</p>
<p>For their part, courts insisted on complying with high standards of electoral integrity. </p>
<p>Finally, the Electoral Commission had to deliver markedly improved elections despite limited resources, time and the constraints of COVID-19. </p>
<h2>Dangers in the electoral system</h2>
<p>Malawian elections have historically shown regionalised and ethnic voting patterns, with presidential candidates drawing on compartmentalised strongholds. Political alliances have effectively been convenient ways of aggregating ethnic votes. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/no-2nd-round-in-malawi-tight-presidential-election-afrobarometer-survey-shows-regional-preferences-persist/">voting patterns</a> of the latest presidential elections were no different. The Tonse Alliance picked up votes mainly from northern and central regions. Mutharika fared well in the south.</p>
<p>The newly introduced runoff electoral system could exacerbate the pattern of regionalised voting as opposition candidates seek to make it to – and lead – an alliance in the second round. The latest elections avoided this danger because the invalidated elections helped the opposition candidates gauge their strength, facilitating the formation of the Tonse Alliance.</p>
<p>In future, the first round of elections may have to serve this purpose, leading to a very fragmented electoral field at the outset. </p>
<p>The new electoral system may also make second round elections a certainty. Considering the logistics, cost, and potential violence associated with organising repeat elections, this may be undesirable.</p>
<p>Moreover, if legislative elections are conducted before presidential elections, two-round elections could systematically result in the president’s party being unable to secure a legislative majority. This would be a recipe for executive-legislative paralysis, already a challenge in Malawi. </p>
<h2>Adjustments to electoral system</h2>
<p>To ensure that the runoff system encourages cross-regional and cross-ethnic party formation, the new president should encourage political dialogue to refine the electoral system.</p>
<p>Nigeria and Kenya <a href="http://constitutionnet.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/electing-presidents-in-presidential-and-semi-presidential-democracies.pdf">have established</a> electoral systems that require presidential candidates to win not only a national majority, but also secure a certain level of electoral support across different regions. This could encourage coalitions of commitment before the first round, rather than coalitions of convenience before the second. These coalitions may in turn make second round elections unnecessary. </p>
<p>In addition, reconsideration of the majority threshold to avoid a second round may further encourage pre-election coalitions while also reducing chances of a second round. </p>
<p>No African country has devised a sensible way of dealing with run-offs. But several Latin American countries have introduced creative rules. In <a href="https://pdba.georgetown.edu/ElecSys/CR/cr.html">Costa Rica</a>, a candidate wins in the first round if he or she secures 40% of the votes. In <a href="https://pdba.georgetown.edu/ElecSys/Argentina/argentina.html">Argentina</a>, a candidate winning 45% or between 40% and 45% with a 10% lead over the runner-up avoids a run-off.</p>
<p>The timing of legislative and executive elections can enable a modicum of governability and avoid systematic legislative-executive deadlock. And legislative elections should preferably follow, rather than precede, presidential elections, or be held alongside the second, rather than first, round. Holding first round presidential elections alongside legislative elections may be understandable as it would mean sometimes avoiding repeat elections. But the trade-off could be government paralysis.</p>
<p>As the electoral system has been decided through a judicial decision, it lacks the nuances and details that may be necessary to advance desirable goals, such as encouraging pan-Malawian parties and reducing the chances of repeat elections. Such nuances are the hallmarks of political processes. </p>
<p>Accordingly, the new president may need to launch processes to ensure that Malawi’s constitutional democracy stands on a firm basis.</p>
<h2>Choiceless democracy</h2>
<p>Ultimately, the success of Malawi’s democratic dispensation will be measured on the extent to which it delivers public goods – opportunities, development, accountability – for the people.</p>
<p>Fittingly, a prominent Malawian thought-leader, the late <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/25501/thandika-mkandawire-an-intellectual-giant-and-incorrigible-pan-african/">Thandika Mkandawire</a>, warned against “<a href="http://unrisd.org/80256B3C005BCCF9/(httpAuxPages)/660234231C9D6710C125717800248890/$file/mkand-pp-dghr.pdf">choiceless democracy</a>” – when governing parties alternate but offer no policy alternatives. </p>
<p>As International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy Indices indicate, progress in <a href="https://www.idea.int/gsod-indices/#/indices/compare-countries-regions">representative democracy in Africa</a> has not been accompanied by improvements in impartial administration in the form of predictable <a href="https://www.idea.int/gsod-indices/#/indices/compare-attributes">enforcement of laws and reduction of corruption</a>. In fact, in the <a href="https://www.idea.int/gsod-indices/#/indices/compare-attributes">case of Malawi</a>, despite democratic gains since the 1990s, impartial administration may have declined.</p>
<p>Accordingly, Chakwera must do more than simply meet his <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2020/06/28/malawians-vote-in-crucial-presidential-poll-rerun-despite-virus/">inaugural assurance</a> to the opposition that he would</p>
<blockquote>
<p>strive to give equal opportunities for all of us.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He must also lay the foundation for a democracy that delivers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141652/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adem K Abebe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The success of Malawi’s democratic dispensation will be measured on the extent to which it delivers public goods – opportunities, development, accountability – for the people.Adem K Abebe, Extraordinary Lecturer and editor of ConstitutionNet, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1174172019-05-20T13:36:40Z2019-05-20T13:36:40ZWhat to expect from Malawi’s sixth poll since one-party rule ended<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275420/original/file-20190520-69209-1hvopg8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eight candidates are running for president in Malawi’s election.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Malawi <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/mec-announces-malawi-tripartite-election-date-may-21-2019/">is going to the polls</a> to elect a new president, new members of Parliament and local government representatives. Newly elected officials will serve for the next five years. This is the sixth nationwide election Malawi has held since it became a multiparty democracy in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43101816?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">1994</a>. It is the first poll since the introduction of a <a href="https://malawilii.org/mw/legislation/act/2018/1">new law</a> last year designed to regulate the registration, funding and functioning of political parties. Thabo Leshilo asked Chris Changwe Nshimbi to explain what to expect.</em></p>
<p><strong>How many people and parties are registered to vote?</strong></p>
<p>Overall, the <a href="https://mec.org.mw/">Malawi Electoral Commission</a> registered about <a href="https://www.mec.org.mw/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Final-Voter-Registration-Figures-With-Transfers-and-Youth-Statistics-.pdf">6.86 million</a> voters for the elections. This number is down from the <a href="https://www.mec.org.mw/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Final-Voter-Registration-Figures-With-Transfers-and-Youth-Statistics-.pdf">7.5 million</a> registered voters in the previous elections, in 2014. There are <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/malawi-population-hits-17-5-million-females-still-a-majority-census-results-show-35-percent-growth-rate/">17,5 million people</a> in Malawi, of whom <a href="http://www.nsomalawi.mw/images/stories/data_on_line/demography/census_2018/2018%20Population%20and%20Housing%20Census%20Preliminary%20Report.pdf">8,6 million, representing 49%</a> of the total population, are 18 years or older, and <a href="http://aceproject.org/regions-en/countries-and-territories/MW">eligible to vote</a>.</p>
<p>The voters have 1331 candidates across the country from which to choose 193 MPs. Thirteen of the country’s 50 registered political parties are contesting the elections. </p>
<p>Following the <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN1QW0UK-OZATP">withdrawal</a> from the presidential race of the only woman candidate, former president Joyce Banda, the electorate now has <a href="https://mec.org.mw/2019/02/14/approved-candidates-for-may-21-presidential-elections/">eight men</a>, from which to choose its next President. </p>
<p><strong>Who are the main contenders?</strong></p>
<p>Incumbent president, <a href="http://mawila.com/peter-mutharika-biography-net-worth/">Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika</a>, is seeking a <a href="http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/malawis-president-makes-final-plea-for-re-election-in-tight-race/">second </a> and, hopefully, final term. He faces opposition from Saulos Chilima, from the United Transformation Movement; Lazarus Chakwera, of Malawi Congress Party; Cassim Chilumpha, of Tikonze People’s Movement; Atupele Muluzi, of United Democratic Front; John Chisi, of Umodzi Party, Peter Kuwani Mbakuwaku, of Movement for Development and Reverend Kaliya, an independent candidate.</p>
<p>Of the seven other presidential aspirants, Mutharika and his Democratic Progressive Party face two main contenders in Saulos Chilima, his Deputy President and leader of the newly-formed United Transformation Movement; and Lazarus Chakwera, leader of the Malawi Congress Party, a former pastor.</p>
<p>Chakwera, whose party is the second largest in Malawi’s parliament, has promised <a href="https://malawi24.com/2019/05/04/mutharika-has-failed-mcp-only-hope-for-malawians-chakwera/">inclusive development</a> if voted into office.</p>
<p>Chilima, Mutharika’s onetime ally and presidential running mate in the 2014 elections, shocked Mutharika in 2018 when he quit the governing party <a href="https://punchng.com/malawis-vice-president-sets-up-own-party-attacks-president/">to form UTM</a>. The former corporate executive is calling for change in the way in which Malawi is governed. Chilima says his candidacy represents a generational shift that will <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/malawi-is-at-a-crossroads-it-needs-change-chilima/">reverse the downward trend</a> in Malawi’s environmental, economic, social and political trends, which seems to be “business as usual” to Mutharika.</p>
<p><strong>What are the issues in the elections?</strong></p>
<p>Both Chilima and Chakwera have made corruption a major issue in their campaigns, accusing Mutharika of nurturing it. Malawi has indeed witnessed scandalous high-profile corruption in the past decade. The <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-14-malawi-in-midst-of-100m-cashgate-scandal">2013 “Cashgate” scandal</a>, for example, saw donors <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/malawi-donors-withhold-aid-over-cashgate-scandal/1786120.html">withdraw financial support</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-25912652">aid</a> to the country, whose national budget is 40% donor-funded.</p>
<p>Interestingly, corruption was a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/29/malawian-president-joyce-banda-faces-electoral-humiliation-possibly-jail">major issue</a> that contributed to Joyce Banda losing to Mutharika in the 2014 elections. Ironically, it’s Mutharika who is being accused of corruption this time around. Whether the accusations will stick and, consequently, see history repeat itself remains to be seen after the elections. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275432/original/file-20190520-69186-1yehp2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Malawian President Arthur Peter Mutharika (79) wants a second term.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Jason Szenes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For his part Mutharika has been highlighting improvements in infrastructure and the <a href="https://mwnation.com/huge-maize-output-to-lower-inflation/">lower inflation</a> rates Malawi has seen during his first term. He also takes the credit for having stabilised the economy, which he found in shambles in 2014, and for improvements in the country’s agricultural output. </p>
<p>He has promised to continue improving Malawi’s infrastructure and to subsidise agriculture, if he retains power. He has gone as far as promising to develop Malawi to the <a href="https://malawi24.com/2019/05/04/mutharika-has-failed-mcp-only-hope-for-malawians-chakwera/">levels of Europe</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Can the elections be free and fair?</strong> </p>
<p>Apart from the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/malawi-s-election-preparations-impacted-by-cyclone-idai-flooding/4907201.html">devastating effect Cyclone Idai</a> has had – some people lost their voter registration certificates to flooding and some candidates could not reach people trapped in evacuation camps – not many complaints have been raised by contenders about the fairness of the playing field in this year’s election. </p>
<p>A worrying factor is the decline in the number of voters registered for the elections. But, such apathy is <a href="https://africacheck.org/fbcheck/yes-more-than-9-million-eligible-voters-arent-registered-for-south-africas-2019-elections/">not unique</a> to Malawi. Several factors are normally cited for this, including disappointment with politicians who fail to deliver on campaign promises.</p>
<p>Some people have raised concerns about the 79-year-old Mutharika’s <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/mutharika-tells-bbc-he-has-clean-bill-of-health-i-am-not-sick-but-100-well/">health</a>. They doubt his ability to effectively lead Malawi for another five years, given the country’s socio-economic challenges. The landlocked country is one of the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/malawi/overview">poorest</a> and least developed in the world. </p>
<p>These challenges actually apply to whoever emerges victorious after this poll.</p>
<p>Two cases in point are agriculture and employment. The Malawian economy is predominantly based on subsistence agriculture, which is crucial for food security. The majority of people who practice this type of agriculture also live in rural area. </p>
<p>And that’s where most of the vote comes from. Whoever wins the hearts of rural voters will most likely carry the day in Malawi. The same applies to the candidate who offers a better promise to the nation’s many jobless young people.</p>
<p><strong>Will the elections help Malawi consolidate democracy?</strong></p>
<p>It’s an achievement in itself that Malawi is holding its sixth multi-party national elections since its transition from its era of dictatorship under former President <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hastings-Kamuzu-Banda">Kamuzu Banda</a>. Banda ruled the country with an iron fist for the first three decades after independence.</p>
<p>But beyond free and fair elections, democratic consolidation entails fulfilling electoral promises, especially those that relate to citizens’ rights to basic services like water and education. The country also needs to provide decent work for its citizens.</p>
<p>The eight candidates contesting for the presidency and the 13 political parties that are vying for Parliament clearly show that Malawi’s election is open. But, more could be done to promote the participation of women.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Changwe Nshimbi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s an achievement in itself that Malawi is holding its sixth multi-party national elections since its transition from dictatorship under former President Kamuzu Banda.Chris Changwe Nshimbi, Director & Research Fellow, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/748542017-03-27T14:19:28Z2017-03-27T14:19:28ZMalawi’s plans for major electoral reform are way overdue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162343/original/image-20170324-12129-1rw3dmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malawi faces the biggest overhaul in its electoral system since the 1990s.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Malawi is set for a major overhaul of its winner-takes-all electoral system with far-reaching implications for the country, if ongoing efforts to reform the system bear fruit.</p>
<p>Any changes in the voting system will represent the biggest overhaul of the country’s electoral system since it became a multiparty state in <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.498.1503&rep=rep1&type=pdf">the mid 1990s</a>. This followed the end of one-party dictatorship under Kamuzu Banda, the country’s first post-colonial leader and <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-drives-corruption-in-malawi-and-why-it-wont-disappear-soon-48183">“president for life”</a>. </p>
<p>A special Malawi Law Commission was given the task of reforming the country’s electoral laws. Following a year of investigation, it recently held a two-day multi-stakeholder conference to discuss the <a href="http://www.mesnmw.org/national-conference-on-electoral-reforms-in-malawi/">planned reforms</a>. Its main proposal is that the current <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11452839/What-is-the-First-Past-The-Post-voting-system.html">first-past-the-post (FPTP)</a> system of electing the president should be abolished.</p>
<p>I believe that the proposed new system would help reduce the toxic politics of regionalism in Malawi. It would also enhance national stability, which is the bedrock of any successful nation. But it isn’t without challenges, and would need the serious allocation of state resources to bring it about.</p>
<h2>Proposed changes</h2>
<p>The proposed new system - absolute majority - to replace the FPTP will require the winning candidate for president to get at least 51+ percent threshold of the national vote. </p>
<p>Political scientist at Catholic University, Nandini Patel, a participant at the conference, has <a href="http://mwnation.com/law-commission-proposes-scrapping-electoral-system">explained the proposal thus:</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>In a situation where no presidential candidate secures the threshold, the recommendation is that there should be a runoff or double ballot where the top two candidates contest in the second round and the one who secures more votes is declared winner.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On the face of it, the proposal is straightforward and makes logical sense. Yet, this is complex than it appears and if adopted it would revolutionise the way local politics is done.</p>
<p>The FPTP has been been in place since <a href="http://mwnation.com/electing-a-president-by-majority-hard-options/">1994</a>, when Malawi embraced multiparty politics after doing away with Kamuzu Banda’s 30 years of dictatorship. Since then, a presidential candidate from a high-populated region is more or less assured of electoral victory because the FPTP system. </p>
<p>In the case of Malawi, the country’s Southern Region <a href="https://www.citypopulation.de/Malawi.html">has always had a higher population</a> than the Central and Northern administrative regions. Thus, all the country’s presidents since the dawn of democracy have come from that region; <a href="http://www.statehouse.mw/bakili-elson-muluzi/">Bakili Muluzi</a> (1994 - 2004), <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-erosion-of-democracy-in-malawi-president-bingu-wa-mutharikas-unholy-conversion/">Bingu wa Mutharika</a> (2004 - 2012), <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/04/201247163726657558.html">Joyce Banda</a> (2012 - 2014) and the incumbent, <a href="http://politicoscope.com/2015/10/29/malawi-arthur-peter-mutharika-biography-and-profile/">Peter Mutharika</a>, Bingu’s young brother, from 2014.</p>
<p>This may yet be a coincidence given that there is no study to back the hypothesis. But, the fact that the sitting President, Peter Mutharika, won the election with only <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/06/11/why-malawis-election-surprised-us-even-if-the-outcome-was-unsurprising/?utm_term=.e5137d7cf850">35%</a> of the national threshold strengthens the hypothesis.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162157/original/image-20170323-3523-107rjm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>All things being equal, it should not matter where the state president comes from. Yet, as I have <a href="http://www.nyasatimes.com/reconditioning-the-national-psyche-for-a-better-malawi">previously argued</a>: the trend in Malawi is for the incumbent president to concentrate government development efforts in their own regions and districts of origins. </p>
<p>This makes those from other parts of the country feel aggrieved and short-changed. It’s for this reason that some members of the political elite in the country lodged serious calls for <a href="http://mwnation.com/elections-and-government-system/">federal system</a> of government, barely two months after Mutharika’s electoral victory in 2014.</p>
<p>Of course the late President, Bingu wa Mutharika initially came into office in 2004 <a href="http://africanelections.tripod.com/mw.html#2004_Presidential_Election">with only 36%</a> of the national threshold but managed to get a <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/109595/AfrobriefNo75.pdf">63%of the national threshold in 2009</a> to win his second term.</p>
<p>He got votes in all regions other than only the Southern Region where he comes from. </p>
<p>The proposals to end the advantage the FPTP gives to candidates from highly populated districts are already facing resistance from some in the governing party. Heatherwick Ntaba, President Mutharika’s special advisor has argued ca the proposed new system of electing the president is <a href="http://mwnation.com/law-commission-proposes-scrapping-electoral-system/">“unrealistic and wasteful.”</a>. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>there is no way we can attain legitimacy of people are talking about. Let us talk about the costs. In reality we are already struggling to conduct by-elections [in areas where MPs and local government councillors have died].</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Challenges</h2>
<p>The proposed absolute majority system will certainly have its own problems. But, Ntaba’s fears are self-serving as the current system benefits his political party. Given the country’s regionalism voting pattern, the new 51+ winning threshold would require presidential candidates to reach out to regions beyond their own regions in order to win the presidency. No single region can produce enough votes for 51+ winning threshold.</p>
<p>Presidential candidates will thus be forced to consider forming alliances with candidates from other regions. This would have a good unintended consequence as politicians would be forced to extend government developmental programmes beyond their owns regions. </p>
<p>This would also introduce Malawi to the dynamics of alliance politics, with all its unpredictability and possible infighting within the governing alliance, given that it leaves a room for alliances of convenience, that are not necessarily in the interest of the country. </p>
<p>Yet, the bigger picture is that the new policy would reduce grievances and the feelings of unfairness. In the past, these fuelled calls for the country to adopt a federal system of government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74854/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jimmy Kainja does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The proposed change to Malawi’s electoral system is straightforward and makes logical sense. Yet it’s more complex and if adopted would revolutionise local politics.Jimmy Kainja, Lecturer in Media and Communications, University of MalawiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.