tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/rebecca-white-49121/articlesRebecca White – The Conversation2024-03-20T19:04:17Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257832024-03-20T19:04:17Z2024-03-20T19:04:17ZFrom power prices to chocolate fountains, the Tasmanian election campaign has been a promise avalanche<p>The billboards are fading in the harsh sun. Antony Green is doing his vocal warm-up exercises. The 2024 Tasmanian election campaign is almost done and it’s now over to the voters. </p>
<p>The five-week campaign has been largely uninspiring but not without notable moments, from wildcard independents to promises of the world’s largest chocolate fountain. </p>
<p>So what’s the state of play going into election day? Which announcements have cut through, and what’s been lost in the flood of promises? And of course, what might we prefer to forget?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">Dire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The key players</h2>
<p>Tasmania has five electorates: Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin, and Lyons. Each of these will <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-24/peg-putt-1998-tasmanian-parliament-numbers-chair-protest/101689536">elect seven members</a> to the lower house for the first time since 1998, when each electorate was reduced to five seats. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BGSZDvpJOig?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tasmania’s lower house is being restored to 35 seats.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jeremy Rockliff is leader of the Liberal Party (there’s no Coalition down south), and has been premier since April 2022. </p>
<p>He’s had a rough ride. There have been several cabinet reshuffles, and he’s been forced to govern in minority since May 2023, when two of his MPs <a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-is-going-to-an-early-election-will-the-countrys-last-liberal-state-be-no-more-216533">quit the party</a> to sit on the crossbench. He called the election in a bid to re-establish his parliamentary majority.</p>
<p>In the opposite camp, Rebecca White is leader of the Labor Party, and will be hoping to avoid her third straight electoral defeat. Like Rockliff, the past few years haven’t been smooth sailing for White and Labor. </p>
<p>She resigned as party leader after the 2021 election defeat and was replaced by David O’Byrne. However, O’Byrne was forced to quit three weeks later following a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/labor-investigates-sexual-harassment-claims-against-david-obyrne/100253560">sexual harassment claim</a>, and White was re-elected as leader. She and Labor have struggled to cut through during the election campaign.</p>
<p>Rosalie Woodruff is the leader of the Greens, which have long been the third party in Tasmania. Woodruff took over from Cassy O’Connor in July 2023, but is something of an unknown quantity, with a lower public profile than previous Greens leaders.</p>
<p>Here’s where things get interesting. This election will see the highest number of independents (29) contesting a Tasmanian election for decades. </p>
<p>While there are too many to list them all, ones to keep an eye on include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>John Tucker and Lara Alexander (the Liberal MPs who quit in 2023)</p></li>
<li><p>David O’Byrne (former Labor leader)</p></li>
<li><p>Kristie Johnson (a sitting independent MP) </p></li>
<li><p>Sue Hickey (former Hobart Lord Mayor, former Liberal then independent MP).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Finally, there’s the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN), which is running candidates in all seats except Clark. The JLN made the controversial decision not to release any policies, instead pitching themselves as a group of down-to-earth people that wants to “keep the bastards honest”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-is-going-to-an-early-election-will-the-countrys-last-liberal-state-be-no-more-216533">Tasmania is going to an early election. Will the country's last Liberal state be no more?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Which issues have dominated the campaign?</h2>
<p>Polling during the campaign showed the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-15/tas-stateline-election-issues-influencing-voters/103463516">top concerns</a> for most Tasmanian voters were health care and cost of living. Labor and Liberal both put forward several measures aimed at these areas, among others. </p>
<p>Millions of dollars have been promised with the enthusiasm of a discount carpet warehouse closing-down sale – but this <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/lyons-is-tasmanias-largest-geographical-electorate-covering-many-regional-areas/news-story/c116fd291dc9b8eb76efc2fe363e49ea">hasn’t necessarily</a> helped win votes. In fact, this sort of policy bonanza can confuse and overwhelm voters.</p>
<p>In an ideal world, we would each decide our vote by comparing each candidate or party’s full set of policies, and figuring out which one best matches our own values. But who has time for that? </p>
<p>In reality, people typically vote based on a combination of <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/what-makes-us-vote-the-way-we-do/">other things</a>, including specific, controversial issues, eye-catching headlines, and candidates’ personalities. This is how democracies tend to work all over the world. </p>
<p>So what were the things that might have shifted votes during this campaign? </p>
<p>The long-running divide in Tasmanian society between environmental conservation and economic development remains, meaning voters may decide whom to side with depending on each party’s stance on salmon farming or the proposed new AFL stadium, for example. </p>
<p>Some influential issues are hyper-local, such as a long-closed <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/labor-makes-election-promise-of-5m-to-repair-and-reopen-glenorchy-pool/news-story/88a4ff6da7046cea183d4ac962eecc06">community pool</a>. </p>
<p>There have been a few “headline grabbers” during the campaign, designed to stick in the minds of undecided voters. The best example of this is the Liberals’ promise to build the world’s largest <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/10/pure-imagination-tasmanian-premier-vows-to-build-worlds-largest-chocolate-fountain-if-re-elected">chocolate fountain</a> if elected. Labor’s <a href="https://taslabor.org.au/our-plan/power-prices/">refrain</a> “Tasmanian prices for Tasmanian power” is also in the mix. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1766562220194877696"}"></div></p>
<p>The final thing that may sway voters is what <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/mar/19/its-the-vibe-25-years-on-how-the-castle-became-an-australian-classic#:%7E:text=For%20some%2C%20the%20most%20well,the%20vibe%2C%E2%80%9D%20says%20Denuto.">Dennis Denuto</a> would call “the vibe” around candidates. </p>
<p>Rockliff has benefited from the perception that he’s a “<a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/opinion/wooley-libs-launched-back-in-time-by-nice-guy-jrock/news-story/acbafc64fae580379192f2e65ea8aa37">nice guy</a>” in tough circumstances, while White has struggled to separate her brand from the O’Byrne controversy and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-30/analysis-labor-strategy-questions-after-winter-snub/100037140">earlier Labor factional fighting</a>.</p>
<p>The Greens have been doorknocking hard, particularly in the state’s <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/03/15/tasmanian-greens-state-election-braddon/">northwest</a>. That personal contact may help them get a new candidate across the line. </p>
<p>The JLN has leaned heavily on their namesake’s forceful “battler” personality. Each independent has tried to build their own brand, typically by focusing on a specific issue or spruiking their ability to stand up to the major parties. It’s tricky to tell how successful these efforts have been – the proof will be in the votes. </p>
<h2>The lowlights</h2>
<p>There have been a few lowlights during the campaign. First prize goes to the fake JLN site <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-14/jacqui-lambie-slams-liberals-over-website/103581992">set up</a> by the Liberal Party. This particular piece of skulduggery is not against electoral law, but it’s certainly against the spirit of democracy. It might not have the desired effect: this type of negative campaigning can <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">turn voters away</a> from the offending party.</p>
<p>Another disappointing aspect of the campaign was Rockliff and White repeatedly ruling out offering ministries or policy concessions to independents, the JLN, or the Greens in exchange for their support. This is due to the perceived failure of <a href="https://www.aspg.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/33_2-Michael-Lester.pdf">previous power-sharing</a> deals in Tasmania. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">The Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of 'cybersquatting'. It's the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Rockliff even proposed that MPs who quit their party should be <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-19/experts-respond-to-tas-liberals-stability-clause/103599746">booted out</a> of parliament and replaced with a candidate from the same party – a stunt that ignores that our political system is based on candidates being elected to represent a constituency, not a party. </p>
<p>Rockliff and White may come to regret their strident rhetoric when the votes are counted. It looks <a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">very unlikely</a> either party will win the 18 seats needed to form a majority government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tasmanians head to the polls on Saturday in an election that was called more than a year early. After a largely uninspiring campaign, here’s your guide to state election.Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254552024-03-15T01:57:11Z2024-03-15T01:57:11ZDire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming<p>The Tasmanian state election is on March 23. A <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Polling-Tasmanian-Election-2024-Web.pdf">uComms poll</a> for The Australia Institute, conducted March 4–5 from a sample of 1,174, gave the Liberals 37.1% of the vote, Labor 23.0%, the Greens 13.7%, the Jacqui Lambie Network 8.5%, independents 12.8% and others 5.0%.</p>
<p>The Liberals have governed since winning the 2014 election. If this poll’s Labor vote of 23% is accurate, that would be a dreadful result for Labor ten years after losing power.</p>
<p>By 46–36, respondents thought Tasmania was headed in the wrong, rather than right, direction. A breakdown by voting intentions shows large majorities of all non-Liberal voters thought Tasmania was headed in the wrong direction.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the proportional Hare Clark system, with five electorates each returning seven members for a total of 35 lower house seats, up from 25 total seats at previous elections. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/ucomms-labor-23-how-much-stock-should.html">Kevin Bonham</a> said the Liberals would be expected to win 14 of the 35 seats if this poll is accurate, Labor ten, the Greens four, the JLN 2–3 and independents 4–5. The Liberals would be well short of the 18 needed for a majority, but much better placed to form government than Labor.</p>
<p>Bonham said that during the 2021 Tasmanian election campaign, uComms released a poll that greatly understated the Liberals. They have changed their methods since to include SMS as well as voice robopolling. They were accurate at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albaneses-ratings-surge-in-yougov-poll-tasmanian-poll-suggests-difficult-to-form-government-225083">federal Dunkley byelection</a>. Other recent Tasmanian polls also have the Liberals best placed to form a minority government.</p>
<h2>Queensland Newspoll: 54–46 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-queenslands-liberal-national-party-in-box-seat-for-majority-government/news-story/aac713de8fa9f0e67201bc0c64eae6e3">Newspoll</a>, conducted March 7–13 from a sample of 1,037, gave the Liberal National Party a 54–46 lead over Labor, representing a seven-point swing to the LNP since the October 2020 election. Primary votes were 42% LNP, 30% Labor, 13% Greens, 8% One Nation and 7% for all Others.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Steven Miles had a 49% dissatisfied, 38% satisfied rating (net -11), while LNP leader David Crisafulli was at net +14. Crisafulli led Miles as better premier by 43–37. Just 26% thought Labor deserved to be re-elected, while 58% thought it was time to give someone else a go. This is the first Queensland Newspoll since before the 2020 election.</p>
<p>After Miles replaced Annastacia Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier in December, there were two relatively good uComms polls for Labor, with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-steady-in-newspoll-but-down-in-resolve-its-tied-in-queensland-223853">one in mid-February</a> having a 50–50 tie. But this poll is a reversion to bad polling for a government headed for defeat in October. </p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015, and it was easily the worst state for Labor at the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">2022 federal election</a>, so a defeat for Labor is the expected outcome.</p>
<p>On Saturday, there will be Queensland state byelections in Labor-held Inala and Ipswich West, and Queensland local government elections, including for the high-profile <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guides">Brisbane City Council</a>. Labor won <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/inal">Inala</a> by 78.2–21.8 and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">Ipswich West</a> by 64.3–35.7 against the LNP in 2020.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/03/15/queensland-newspoll-state-by-elections-and-brisbane-city-council/">Poll Bludger</a> reported Friday that a DemosAU poll of the Brisbane City Council, conducted March 8–14 from a sample of 1,034, had the incumbent LNP Brisbane mayor leading Labor by 58–42, and the LNP also likely to retain their majority on the council.</p>
<h2>Federal Freshwater poll steady at 51–49 to Labor</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-shows-signs-of-recovery-as-labor-stops-the-rot-20240310-p5fb6x">Freshwater poll</a> for The Australian Financial Review, conducted March 8–10 from a sample of 1,051, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the February Freshwater poll. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-steady-in-newspoll-but-down-in-resolve-its-tied-in-queensland-223853">was steady</a> at -7, with 45% unfavourable and 37% favourable. Dutton’s net approval fell four points to -13. Albanese’s lead as preferred PM increased to 47–38 from 42–38 in February.</p>
<p>The Coalition’s lead over Labor on best to manage cost of living dropped to three points from six points in February, but they still led Labor by ten points on managing the economy. Cost of living was <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/what-voters-really-mean-when-they-say-the-cost-of-living-is-hurting-20240310-p5fb6w">rated an important issue</a> by 72%, up three since February, with housing second on 42%.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor regains slight lead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted March 6–10 from a sample of 1,126, gave Labor a 48–47 lead including undecided, a reversal of a 48–47 lead for the Coalition last fortnight. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down two), 8% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady), 8% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (up one).</p>
<p>Respondents were told that Australia spends $55.6 billion <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/12-march-2024">on defence</a>, making it the fourth highest expense in the budget. On this spending, 51% thought it about the right amount, 29% too much and 20% not enough.</p>
<p>On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 37% thought Israel should permanently withdraw from Gaza, 20% agree to a temporary ceasefire and 18% thought Israel was justified in continuing its actions.</p>
<p>On Australia’s relationship with China, 67% thought it a complex relationship to be managed, 20% that China is a threat to be confronted and 13% that China is a positive opportunity to be realised. There was no change in these responses since March 2023.</p>
<p>On Australia’s role in global affairs, 38% thought we should be an independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region, 20% primarily an ally of the United States and 25% said we should do our best not to engage in world affairs.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and Cook byelection</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9487-federal-voting-intention-march-12-2024">national Morgan poll</a>, conducted March 4–10 from a sample of 1,714, gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up 1.5), 32% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (down 0.5), 4% One Nation (up 0.5), 9% independents (up 0.5) and 4% others (steady).</p>
<p>The byelection in former Liberal prime minister Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/cook-by-election-2024">seat of Cook</a> will be held on April 13. At the 2022 election, Morrison defeated Labor by a 62.4–37.6 margin. Candidate nominations close next Thursday, with Labor not expected to contest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225455/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polls aren’t favouring state Labor parties. Based on the latest figures, Labor would struggle to form government in Tasmania, while support for the party in Queensland has dipped.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1598062021-05-02T08:21:06Z2021-05-02T08:21:06ZLiberals’ victory in Tasmanian election is more status quo than ringing endorsement<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398221/original/file-20210502-21-st467v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Sarah Rhodes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Tasmanian Liberal government has been returned for a record third term, vindicating premier Peter Gutwein’s decision to go to an election a year early. </p>
<p>However, rather than the big swings to the incumbent governments seen in recent elections in <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-thumping-win-in-western-australia-carries-risks-for-both-sides-156301">Western Australia</a> due to their management of the pandemic, the result in Tasmania maintained the status quo.</p>
<p>While benefiting from Gutwein’s high personal popularity due to his management of the pandemic, the Liberal vote fell slightly from 50.3% at the 2018 election to 48.8% at the close of counting late on Saturday night. However, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-01/antony-green-projects-liberals-will-win-either-12-or-13-seats/13325942">Labor’s vote fell</a> 4.5% to just 28%.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-likely-to-retain-majority-in-tasmania-bidens-ratings-after-100-days-159629">Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Liberals are <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/counting-the-votes-live-from-the-tasmanian-state-election-tally-room/live-coverage/877720e8a010676a24cdd7f2473673b8">poised to win 13 seats</a> in the 25-seat House of Assembly, Labor nine, the Greens two and one independent. </p>
<p>Under Tasmania’s Hare Clark proportional electoral system, five members are returned from five seats. These are Bass in the state’s north, Braddon in the north-west, Clark and Franklin in the greater Hobart area and southern region, and Lyons, which sprawls across the state’s centre and east coast.</p>
<p>To win a seat, each candidate needs to win 16.6% of the formal vote but, based on the percentage of vote for each party group, it is clear the Liberals will win three seats in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons, two seats in Franklin and most likely two seats in Clark.</p>
<p>Labor’s nine seats include two in Bass, Braddon, Franklin and Lyons but only one in the party’s former stronghold of Clark. The main reason for this is the loss of votes to two high-profile independents – Glenorchy City Council mayor Kristie Johnston and the former Liberal speaker Sue Hickey – one of whom is predicted to win a seat on preferences.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-01/antony-green-projects-liberals-will-win-either-12-or-13-seats/13325942">Greens vote</a> is up 2% to 12.3% statewide, securing the two seats they held in the previous parliament in Clark and Franklin, but not enough to win further seats.</p>
<p>Labor leader Rebecca White conceded defeat on Saturday night, congratulating Gutwein on winning the election and for his high personal vote after securing almost half the available votes in his <a href="https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/House_of_Assembly_Elections/StateElection2021/results/bass/index.html">electorate of Bass</a>. This is among the highest individual votes in the modern era.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-tasmanians-head-to-the-polls-liberal-premier-peter-gutwein-hopes-to-cash-in-on-covid-management-159526">As Tasmanians head to the polls, Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein hopes to cash in on COVID management</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Gutwein claimed victory but stopped short of declaring he had secured a majority, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-01/tasmanian-2021-state-election-liberals-head-for-majority-win/100084224">saying only</a> it appeared “increasingly likely”. </p>
<p>The election outcome means a return to the one-seat majority his government held just prior to the election. He also made history by securing the Liberals a record third term in office in Tasmania.</p>
<p>While the balance of seats remains much the same, there will be a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-02/who-are-the-winners-and-losers-of-tasmanian-election/100084226">turnover of members</a> with some new faces replacing former MPs.</p>
<p>In the government line-up, Hickey, who was ousted from the Liberal Party a few days before the election was called, looks likely to be replaced by former Labor MP turned independent Madeleine Ogilvie, who switched to the Liberals just days after Gutwein announced the election.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/House_of_Assembly_Elections/StateElection2021/results/braddon/index.html">Braddon</a>, first-term MP Felix Ellis lifted his vote by 6.1% while scandal-prone former MP Adam Brooks has edged ahead of housing minister Roger Jaensch and may replace him in the Liberal team.</p>
<p>On the opposition benches, Kingborough Council mayor <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-06/dean-winter-to-become-tas-labors-sixth-candidate/100050778">Dean Winter</a>, who was the subject of a fierce factional battle to prevent him standing for Labor, will replace Labor frontbencher Alison Standen in Franklin.</p>
<p>In Bass, former Launceston mayor Janie Finlay is poised to replace Jennifer Houston in Labor’s line-up.</p>
<p>Tasmania also saw elections in two of the Legislative Council seats of Derwent in the state’s south and Windemere in the north. Labor MLC Craig Farrell defeated his Liberal rival, Derwent Valley mayor Ben Shaw. In Windemere, where the sitting independent retired, Liberal candidate and television presenter Nick Duigan is leading Labor’s Geoff Lyons and independent Will Smith. That seat will be decided by preferences.</p>
<p>It will be 10 days before the final distribution of preferences can commence in the House of Assembly election due to the need to wait until all postal votes are counted. But only in Clark is there potential for this process to affect the election result.</p>
<p>Either way, it is either a Liberal majority or a Liberal minority government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159806/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Lester does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Under Peter Gutwein, the Liberals have won a record third term, but without the huge swings to incumbent governments that have been seen in other states.Michael Lester, PhD candidate, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1595262021-04-26T20:07:37Z2021-04-26T20:07:37ZAs Tasmanians head to the polls, Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein hopes to cash in on COVID management<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396725/original/file-20210423-13-9h5lev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sarah Rhodes/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tasmanian Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein is gambling on an early election to cash in on his government’s popularity due to its management of the COVID pandemic. It is a reasonable strategy, given how voters in <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-obliterates-liberals-in-historic-wa-election-will-win-control-of-upper-house-for-first-time-156203">Western Australia</a> have rewarded their governments in recent months. </p>
<p>Gutwein announced the May 1 election on March 26 – a year earlier than it is due. This was possible because, while Tasmania has a four-year maximum term, it does not have a fixed term, unlike all other states and territories.</p>
<p>In 2018 the Liberals, under then-Premier Will Hodgman, were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/mar/03/tasmanian-election-polls-voting-liberal-labour-hodgman-white-live">returned to government</a> with a bare majority of 13 of the 25 members of the lower house. Gutwein took over the premiership following <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-14/will-hodgman-tasmania-premier-announces-resignation/11867124">Hodgman’s resignation</a> in January 2020. </p>
<p>Over the past three years, the majority government has at times looked shaky. This was typified by maverick Liberal Clark MP Sue Hickey <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-22/tas-speaker-sue-hickey-to-be-disendorsed-by-liberals/100020314">winning the speakership ballot</a> with the support of Labor and the Greens against her party’s candidate. She has since voted against government legislation and policy on a number of policy and social reform issues.</p>
<p>Five days before calling the election Gutwein informed Hickey she would not get Liberal re-endorsement for the next election. She <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/is-tasmania-heading-for-early-election/100021960">resigned</a> from the party, putting the government into minority.</p>
<p>Having engineered a minority government and, despite written assurances from Hickey and ex-Labor, independent MP Madeleine Ogilvie on confidence and supply, Gutwein then called the election to secure “stable majority government”. His reasoning was that this would keep Tasmania in safe hands for ongoing management of COVID.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-ratings-take-a-hit-in-newspoll-as-coalition-notionally-loses-a-seat-in-redistribution-158048">Morrison's ratings take a hit in Newspoll as Coalition notionally loses a seat in redistribution</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A few days later, Ogilvie <a href="https://www.examiner.com.au/story/7186188/party-affiliation-doesnt-change-me-ogilvie-joins-the-libs/">was endorsed</a> as a Liberal candidate for Clark. This underlined the artificiality of the minority government argument.</p>
<p>Under <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/elections/tas/2006/guide/hareclark.htm">Tasmania’s Hare-Clark proportional electoral system</a>, five members are elected to each of five multi-member seats. These are Bass in the north, Braddon in the north west, Clark and Franklin in the greater Hobart and southern region, and the sprawling Lyons across the middle of the state.</p>
<p>Going into this election, the Liberals had 12 seats, Labor nine, Tasmanian Greens two and there were two independents.</p>
<p>In March 2020, before the pandemic, Labor leader Rebecca White was matching first Hodgman and then Gutwein as preferred premier.</p>
<p>However, that changed after Gutwein <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-public-health-emergency-to-be-declared-tasmania/12062276">declared a state of emergency</a> and the “toughest border restrictions in Australia”. </p>
<p>Like his counterparts in Queensland and WA, the hard-line stance was widely interpreted as keeping the state safe. Gutwein polled as high as 70% as preferred premier in <a href="https://www.examiner.com.au/story/6905029/support-plummets-for-labor/">opinion polls</a> throughout 2020. </p>
<p>The election announcement caught Labor unprepared. The start of its campaign was sidetracked by factional battles over preselection of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-06/dean-winter-to-become-tas-labors-sixth-candidate/100050778">high-profile Kingborough Mayor Dean Winter</a> for the seat of Franklin. It also had to deal with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-07/tas-labor-candidate-ben-mcgregor-resigns-from-candidacy/100052594">the resignation</a> of state ALP president Ben McGregor from the campaign over crude text messages he sent to a female colleague some years ago.</p>
<p>The Liberals also have had their share of problems. Franklin candidate Dean Ewington was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-31/tasmania-liberal-candidate-attended-covid-lockdown-rally-resigns/100038860">forced to resign</a> when it was revealed he had attended anti-lockdown rallies against Gutwein’s policy. Ex-minister and now Braddon candidate Adam Brooks <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-08/liberal-candidate-adam-brooks-ammunition-alleged-offences/100056492">also faces police charges</a> over alleged contraventions of gun storage law. </p>
<p>Tasmania has has three minority governments in the modern era. These are the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor%E2%80%93Green_Accord">1989 Labor-Green Accord</a> government, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Tasmanian_state_election">1996 Liberal minority government</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-labor-green-alliance-in-tasmania-end-in-tears-19666">2010 Labor-Green quasi-coalition</a> government. In each case voters punished the major governing party at the following election. </p>
<p>Consequently, the prospect of a hung parliament is always a central election issue in this state. Both Labor and the Liberals have pledged to govern in majority or not at all. However, in their one campaign debate to date, both Gutwein and White indicated they would resign the leadership rather than lead a minority government. This seems to leave open the door for their replacements to take up negotiations to form government.</p>
<p>Federal issues and federal political leaders have had a minimal impact on the Tasmanian election. So far, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has not visited the state during the campaign, even for the Liberal campaign launch. Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has visited twice, including for Labor’s launch.</p>
<p>While Tasmania’s economy has held up surprisingly well during the pandemic – due in no small part to Commonwealth JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments – the end of those payments is likely to have a negative impact on the state’s economy. Some have <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/tasmania-early-election-inevitable-as-sue-hickeys-fate-is-sealed-peter-gutwein-in-prime-position/news-story/e03c7d4e46614c08a65f33062b662e75">pointed to this</a> as an underlying reason for going to an election early. </p>
<p>Concerns about delays to the roll-out of COVID vaccinations and the possible distraction from the key state Liberal campaign theme of management of the pandemic may be another reason for keeping federal ministers away.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-election-could-be-historical-labor-landslide-but-party-with-less-than-1-vote-may-win-upper-house-seat-156202">WA election could be historical Labor landslide, but party with less than 1% vote may win upper house seat</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For its part, Labor has campaigned on state <a href="https://taslabor.com/labor-will-solve-the-liberals-waiting-list-mess-once-and-for-all/">Liberal failure to reduce hospital</a> and housing waiting lists and the lack of action on a range of key infrastructure development promises made at the 2018 election. The opposition has also raised concerns about <a href="https://taslabor.com/peter-gutwein-must-have-full-budget-estimates-disclosure/">future budget spending cuts</a> to fund high-cost COVID economic stimulus measures, <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/7193003/labors-plan-opens-up-new-opportunities/">TAFE privatisation</a> and <a href="https://taslabor.com/gutwein-government-takes-tasmania-back-to-square-one-on-crucial-tt-line-build-meaning-two-years-of-unnecessary-delay/">delays in replacing</a> the Spirit of Tasmania ferries, which are vital for interstate transport, tourism and freight. </p>
<p>The Greens and key high-profile independent candidates such as Hickey and popular Glenorchy Mayor Kristie Johnston in Clark have <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/liberals-selfinflicted-minority-government-the-trigger-for-early-election/news-story/e537998bf7bf5a111cff1982aed83083">raised concerns</a> about government secrecy, ministerial accountability and the state’s weak laws on political donations and, associated with that, <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/tell-us-the-proposed-tax-rate-for-casino-pokies-greens/news-story/97cd13b96f94459ea865d55aef53b5e0">poker machine licensing reforms</a>. </p>
<p>There have been no public political opinion polls so far during this campaign. However, successive surveys by Tasmanian pollsters EMRS throughout 2020 placed the Liberals <a href="https://www.emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-November-2020-FINAL.pdf">as likely to win more than 52%</a> of the vote state-wide. </p>
<p>Since, historically, a party winning anything over 48% is likely to secure majority government in Tasmania, if those polls are reflected in the election outcome on May 1, another majority Liberal government seems likely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159526/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Lester does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Both Liberal and Labor have had shaky campaigns, but the premier’s gamble that an early poll to capitalise on COVID management is the ticket to another term may well pay off.Michael Lester, PhD candidate, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/922982018-03-04T02:54:21Z2018-03-04T02:54:21ZHodgman rides Tasmanians’ disdain for minority government to a second term in office<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208781/original/file-20180303-65541-vtrnwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Tasmanian election result was an emphatic win for Will Hodgman, but he lost a fair bit of skin along the way.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In an era of single-term governments and growing electoral volatility in Australia, the return of Will Hodgman’s Liberal government at Saturday’s Tasmanian election with <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018/results/">more than 50% of the primary vote</a> is significant – and will have national implications.</p>
<p>The Turnbull government will take comfort from a result that demonstrates voters – even in left-leaning Tasmania – are prepared to re-elect a competent Liberal government that has delivered strong economic and employment growth.</p>
<p>It was a strong result for the Liberals. However, the outcome was shaped as much by Tasmania’s distinctive political practices and local issues as it was by national trends.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/removing-pokies-from-tasmanias-clubs-and-pubs-would-help-gamblers-without-hurting-the-economy-90019">Pokies</a>, housing, hospitals, and – at the 11th hour – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/02/tasmanian-liberal-government-promises-to-soften-gun-laws">watering down gun laws</a> might have been the specific issues that dominated the campaign, but the decisive factor was Tasmanians’ enduring apprehension about minority government.</p>
<p>The legacies of Labor-Green minority government of the early 1990s and between 2010 and 2014 cast a long shadow during the 2018 campaign. Both periods are associated with economic decline, rising unemployment, and budget cuts. </p>
<p>While there is little evidence to suggest minority government has been a cause of poor economic outcomes in Tasmania – it is more that these governments were unlucky and found themselves in charge after national downturns – the fact remains that Tasmanians have a strong preference for majority government.</p>
<p>Given this history, undecided Tasmanian voters tend to back the major party that’s most likely to form majority government. This was evident in both 2006 and 2014, and was always going to be a feature of the 2018 campaign given memories of the 2012-13 recession in Tasmania are still fresh in voters’ minds. And the Liberal government, which was elected in 2014, has delivered strong economic growth. </p>
<p>It is this bandwagon effect that helps explain why support for the government increased by ten points over the course of the campaign, rather than going to minor parties – as has been the case elsewhere.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-romp-to-emphatic-victory-in-tasmanian-election-92180">Liberals romp to emphatic victory in Tasmanian election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What now for the Liberals?</h2>
<p>The final result was an emphatic win for Hodgman. But it is also fair to say he lost a bit of skin along the way, due to the Liberals’ big-budget, brutally effective advertising campaign seeming to have been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-24/labor-will-win-against-cashed-up-liberals-tas-party-pres-says/9481524">funded by gaming interests</a>.</p>
<p>The reality is that Tasmania remains deeply divided on pokies and the means the gaming industry uses to protect its interests.</p>
<p>Tasmanians voted for political and economic stability on Saturday, but an overwhelming majority <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/tasmania-2018-commissioned-pokies.html">support Labor’s policy</a> of phasing pokies out of pubs and clubs over a five-year period.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/removing-pokies-from-tasmanias-clubs-and-pubs-would-help-gamblers-without-hurting-the-economy-90019">Removing pokies from Tasmania's clubs and pubs would help gamblers without hurting the economy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The pokies debate is far from over. Hodgman must commit to open and transparent government, and subject his gaming policies to full parliamentary scrutiny in an attempt to regain the electorate’s trust. Opposition parties also have a role to play, and must be willing to compromise to find some middle ground.</p>
<h2>The election’s losers</h2>
<p>The result wasn’t a disaster for Labor. </p>
<p>Rebecca White, after securing the Labor leadership only a year ago, performed strongly during the campaign and has consolidated her credentials as a future premier. That she will be leading a stronger opposition bolstered by handful of up-and-coming new MPs also bodes well for Labor’s future.</p>
<p>The real losers in the election were the Greens and Jacqui Lambie. </p>
<p>In contrast to their success in inner-Melbourne and Sydney, the Greens have been struggling in Tasmania in recent years. The explanation for their decline in their former heartland can be attributed to the legacies of the last government, the absence of a high-profile local environmental issue, and that Labor, under White, has championed many of their core progressive causes.</p>
<p>Lambie and her party could have been the wildcard of this election, but she has had a tough summer and will have to fight hard to salvage her political career. Had Lambie herself run as a candidate on Saturday, it’s likely she would have been elected – and could have held the balance of power in the lower house. </p>
<p>Strangely, given that personalities and name recognition are so important in Tasmanian elections, she ran a ticket of grassroots candidates under her Jacqui Lambie Network banner that, as expected, failed to secure any serious support.</p>
<h2>Lessons for the future</h2>
<p>As the dust settles, we can draw a few conclusions from the Tasmanian election result.</p>
<p>Above all else, Tasmanians are a pragmatic bunch and are prepared to reward a government that delivers political stability and good economic outcomes.</p>
<p>The campaign also highlighted the power of sectional interests – be they mining, gaming or other actors – in Australian politics. The collective health of our democracy depends on curbing the influence of these groups at both the state and federal level.</p>
<p>Given the distinctive dynamics of Tasmanian politics, not too much can be read into the swing away from minor and protest parties and back to the majors. Perhaps the real test of the national political mood will come in South Australia on Saturday week.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92298/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pokies, housing, hospitals and gun laws might have been the specific issues that dominated the campaign, but the decisive factor was Tasmanians’ enduring apprehension about minority government.Richard Eccleston, Professor of Political Science; Director, Institute for the Study of Social Change, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/921802018-03-03T22:40:52Z2018-03-03T22:40:52ZLiberals romp to emphatic victory in Tasmanian election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208774/original/file-20180303-65511-1m13lmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Hodgman government has been returned for a second term.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 84% of votes counted at Saturday’s Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018/results/">13 of the 25 seats</a> (a majority) for the Liberals, eight for Labor, and one Green, with three in doubt. </p>
<p>Labor is very likely to win the final seat in Braddon, while the final seat in Bass is a Labor/Greens contest, and the final seat in Franklin is a Liberal/Greens contest.</p>
<p>Vote shares were 50.5% Liberals (down just 0.8% since the 2014 landslide), 32.8% Labor (up 5.4%), 10.0% Greens (down 3.8%), and 3.2% Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) – which only contested three of the five electorates.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the Hare Clark system for its lower house elections, with five five-member electorates. A quota is one-sixth of the vote, or 16.7%. For a vote to be formal, at least five candidates must be numbered. Unlike the federal Senate, there is no above-the-line party ticket box.</p>
<p>I will run through each electorate’s results from easiest to most complicated.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/deni/">Denison</a>, Labor won 2.55 quotas, the Liberals 2.26, and the Greens 1.03. This is a clear two Labor, two Liberals, one Green result, unchanged from 2014.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/lyon/">Lyons</a>, the Liberals won 3.05 quotas, Labor 1.99, the Greens 0.38, and the JLN 0.32. This is a clear three Liberals, two Labor result, unchanged from 2014.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/brad/">Braddon</a>, the Liberals won 3.38 quotas, Labor 1.64, the JLN 0.36, ungrouped candidates 0.26, and the Greens 0.20. Labor is well ahead of everyone else in the race for the last seat, and will benefit from Greens preferences. This will be a Labor gain from the Liberals.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/bass/">Bass</a>, the Liberals won 3.53 quotas, Labor 1.59, the Greens 0.54, and the JLN 0.28. Labor is more exposed to within-ticket leakage than the Greens, but is likely to be helped by JLN preferences that do not exhaust.</p>
<p>There will be a crunch point where one candidate from the Liberals, Greens and Labor is left. If the Liberals are third at that point, their preferences probably exhaust. If either Labor or the Greens are third, their preferences should benefit the other left-wing candidate.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/fran/">Franklin</a>, the Liberals won 2.91 quotas, Labor 2.07, the Greens 0.86, and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 0.16. Premier Will Hodgman won 2.30 quotas, and some of his surplus will leak out of the Liberal ticket. However, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers ran just one candidate, so four further preferences were required for formal votes. These preferences are likely to assist the Liberals against the Greens.</p>
<p>Labor has gained a seat in Franklin at the expense of the loser of the Liberals/Greens contest.</p>
<p>I believe preferences will start to be distributed following the last day for receipt of postal votes, on March 13.</p>
<h2>Why this result occurred</h2>
<p>In December, an <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-a-majority-in-queensland-as-polling-in-victoria-shows-a-tie-88692">EMRS poll</a> had the Liberals and Labor tied at 34%, the Greens on 17%, and the JLN on 8%. In the three months since that poll was taken, the Liberals went from a losing position to an emphatic victory – a bitterly disappointing outcome for Labor and the Greens.</p>
<p>EMRS does not usually provide favourable ratings for the leaders, but it did in its December poll. It found Labor leader Rebecca White at a net +40, and Hodgman at a net +13 rating.</p>
<p>There have been two recent state elections with first-term Coalition governments that won landslides at the preceding election, ending at least 14 years of continuous Labor government. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>At the Queensland 2015 election, the Liberal National Party under Campbell Newman was defeated; Newman was very unpopular.</p></li>
<li><p>At the New South Wales 2015 election, the Coalition was comfortably re-elected; Premier Mike Baird was popular at the time. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Tasmania has now followed the NSW example. Labor was crushed in 2014 after 16 consecutive years in power, and the Liberals easily won Saturday’s election.</p>
<p>In Tasmania, White’s initial popularity may have inflated Labor’s position in the polls. However, people generally do not vote a certain way because they like the opposition leader; the premier’s performance is far more important. But popular opposition leaders can inflate their party’s vote until close to an election.</p>
<p>At the 2017 Western Australian election, which Labor won in a landslide, Opposition Leader Mark McGowan was popular, but Premier Colin Barnett was very unpopular. The perception of Barnett was probably far more important than that of McGowan. </p>
<p>The Tasmanian Liberals also benefited from anti-Greens sentiment. In the final week, ReachTEL gave the Liberals a 46-31 lead over Labor, and EMRS gave them a 46-34 lead. These polls may have pushed undecided voters into voting Liberal to ensure a majority government, and so they understated the Liberal vote.</p>
<p>It appears that, four years after one term of Labor/Greens minority government, Tasmanians do not want to return to the Greens holding the balance of power. In 2006, Labor easily won an election that was expected to be close because of the Greens factor.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-likely-to-win-tasmanian-election-while-federal-labors-poll-lead-widens-92404">Liberals likely to win Tasmanian election, while federal Labor's poll lead widens</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Tasmanian analyst <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/tasmania-2018-commissioned-pokies.html">Kevin Bonham</a> has written about why Labor’s anti-pokies policy was not a major vote winner.</p>
<p>On Friday, the last day of campaigning, the Liberals <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/the-liberals-have-170-secret-policies.html">were embarrassed</a> when it was revealed they had a policy to relax gun laws that had been hidden from the public. There have been other recent cases where issues that would be expected to have a last-minute impact on an election have fizzled. If the Liberals defeat the Greens on Shooters, Fishers and Farmers preferences in Franklin, the net impact will be positive for the Liberals.</p>
<p>At the <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseTppByState-20499.htm">2016 federal election</a>, Tasmania was easily Labor’s best state. On Saturday, Labor had its worst result in a state election since the 2014 Tasmanian election – federal and state results do not necessarily agree. A Liberal state government will probably help federal Labor retain its four Tasmanian federal seats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Liberals went from a losing position in Tasmanian polls months ago to a comfortable victory on election day.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/919852018-02-25T19:19:38Z2018-02-25T19:19:38ZAs Tasmania looks likely to have minority government, the Greens must decide how to play their hand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207436/original/file-20180222-65236-2h6v3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tasmanians Greens leader Cassy O'Connor (centre) on the hustings.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rob Blakers</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>According to Tasmanian Greens leader Cassy O'Connor, “<a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/tasmanian-state-election-will-hodgman-meets-kate-warner-to-call-poll/news-story/bebf4d99bce4740fbc50b446f4068579">minority government is government for grown-ups</a>”, whereas “majority government is government for vested interests, corruption and corporate deals”.</p>
<p>The Greens’ pitch to voters at Saturday’s Tasmanian state election is not being couched in policy terms alone. It is also based on a vision of a more desirable governing context for Tasmania. But is minority government good for the Greens?</p>
<h2>The likelihood of minority government</h2>
<p>There is a high probability that the Greens will get their wish and a minority government will be returned at this election. </p>
<p>Tasmania elects its lower house using a form of proportional representation known as the <a href="http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/tpl/backg/HAElections.htm">Hare-Clark system</a>, where parties are awarded seats roughly in accordance with their levels of support within the electorate. Unless a party can win an overall majority of votes, it will not attain the necessary majority of seats to form a government in its own right. </p>
<p>In recent decades, the two major parties have struggled to secure governing majorities. In the eight Tasmanian elections since 1989, majority governments have been elected on only five occasions. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanian-election-likely-to-be-close-while-labor-continues-to-lead-federally-90827">Tasmanian election likely to be close, while Labor continues to lead federally</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There is general agreement among commentators that a majority government at this election is far from certain. The Liberal Party attained 51.22% of the vote in 2014, and lead Labor in most polls. However, according to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/29/tasmanian-election-hung-parliament-would-be-wake-up-call-to-major-parties">analysis by Ben Raue</a>, the Liberals polled above 40% in just one of five polls held in the last year. If these figures are translated into actual votes, minority government is inevitable.</p>
<p>One might think that the possibility of minority government would render the major parties open to working with the Greens to form government. Yet the incumbent premier, Will Hodgman, has already <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/no-deals-as-tasmania-heads-to-the-polls-on-march-3">declared</a> that the Liberals “will govern alone or not at all”. </p>
<p>Likewise, Labor leader Rebecca White has also confirmed that her party “will not govern in minority”. </p>
<p>Much of this talk should be taken seriously but not literally. The major parties will be under pressure to negotiate an agreement of some description in the likely event of a hung parliament. </p>
<p>Any party that seeks to govern without the support of opposition forces will be perpetually at risk of defeat on the floor of the lower house. This reality is likely to weaken the resolve of even the most stubborn party leader – even more so once Governor Kate Warner makes the necessary entreaties.</p>
<p>However, it is not certain that the Greens will be the only parliamentary grouping in the mix to form a minority government. The most recent <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/new-commissioned-tasmanian-polls.html">polling data</a> (based on a MediaReach internal poll commissioned by the Liberal Party) has the Greens’ statewide primary vote at under 13%, which may not prove sufficient to secure the all-important “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018/guide/hinge-seats/">hinge seat</a>” in each of the five multi-member electorates.</p>
<p>One of the particular challenges the Greens are confronting in 2018 is Labor’s capacity to outmanoeuvre them. As psephologist Kevin Bonham has <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/05/emrs-both-majors-rebuild-following.html">observed</a>, the Greens are being squeezed by the appeal of Labor’s “left-wing leader”.</p>
<p>Labor has also stolen the Greens’ thunder on the pokies issue, and its <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-15/labor-sets-120-per-cent-renewable-energy-target/9451088">energy policy</a> – complete with 120% renewable energy target – is likely to find favour with environmentally concerned voters. </p>
<p>Adding to the uncertainty is the prospect – albeit faint given <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/02/15/tasmanian-election-minus-two-half-weeks/">recent polling</a> – of the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) electing one, possibly two candidates. The JLN might make more attractive legislative partners for the major parties than the Greens.</p>
<h2>Is minority government good for the Greens?</h2>
<p>There is a deeper question that the Greens must ask: whether it is prudent for them to enter into any kind of formal arrangement with either major party. </p>
<p>There are advantages in the short term, such as policy concessions and even the possibility of executive office. But the longer-term consequences are far less clear.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-the-first-test-in-an-election-laden-year-90828">Tasmania the first test in an election-laden year</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Tasmanian Greens suffered <a href="http://elections.uwa.edu.au/listelections.lasso">swings against them</a> following the three previous occasions that they entered into some form of agreement to support a minority government: -3.9% in 1992, -2.1% in 1996, and -7.8% in 2014.</p>
<p>Though there were unique circumstances surrounding each of these agreements, it is unclear if the benefits outweigh the costs for the Greens. One <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2006.00652.x/full">international study</a> concluded that participation in government “is not necessarily bad for Green parties”, which falls well short of a ringing endorsement. </p>
<p>If, following this election, the Greens are needed to form a stable government, then the party will have to think strategically about the terms on which it does so. Is participation in executive office a higher prize than consistency of electoral performance?</p>
<p>If the Greens value the former, then securing a formal agreement is the best way forward. But if they value the latter, then a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-confidence-and-supply-government-40442">confidence-and-supply agreement</a>” is their best option. This would allow the Greens to demand additional parliamentary resources and to shape the fate of legislation, without having to shoulder responsibility for government failures at a critical time in the party’s development.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91985/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Both major parties have declared they will not form minority government in Tasmania – talk that should be taken seriously, but not literally.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/908272018-01-30T04:35:17Z2018-01-30T04:35:17ZTasmanian election likely to be close, while Labor continues to lead federally<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203940/original/file-20180130-170413-11gb6dv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If the Greens hold the sole balance of power after the Tasmanian election, the next parliamentary term could be a messy business for Labor's Rebecca White or the Liberals' Will Hodgman.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/The Conversation</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Sunday, Premier Will Hodgman called the Tasmanian election for March 3. Tasmania uses the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/tas/2006/guide/hareclark.htm">Hare Clark system</a> for its lower house, with five electorates, each with five members. The electorates use the same names and boundaries as the five federal Tasmanian electorates of Bass, Braddon, Franklin, Denison and Lyons. A quota for election is one-sixth of the vote, or 16.7%.</p>
<p>At the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_state_election,_2014">March 2014 election</a>, the Liberals won in a landslide, with 15 of the 25 seats, while seven went to Labor and three to the Greens. The Liberals won 51.2% of the vote, to 27.3% for Labor and 13.8% for the Greens. The Liberals won four of the five Braddon seats, three each in Bass, Franklin and Lyons, and two in Denison.</p>
<p>With all polls showing a substantial swing against the Liberals, they are likely to lose their fourth Braddon seat and third Franklin seat. If the Liberals lost another seat, they would lose their majority.</p>
<p>Psephologist <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/2018-tasmanian-state-election-guide_25.html">Kevin Bonham</a> expects the pivot seat to be the Liberals’ third Lyons seat. If the Liberals lose this seat, they are likely to lose their majority. If they win it, they will probably retain their majority.</p>
<p>Other than the established parties, the populist Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) has a realistic chance of winning seats – its main chance would be in Braddon.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-the-first-test-in-an-election-laden-year-90828">Tasmania the first test in an election-laden year</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Both Hodgman and Labor leader Rebecca White have <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/tasmania-2018-what-happens-if-no-party.html">ruled out governing</a> with the Greens’ support. A large bloc of Tasmanians detests the Greens, and the three previous governments that involved the Greens have had major problems. If Hodgman and White stick to their promise after the election, and the Greens hold the sole balance of power, the next parliamentary term could be messy.</p>
<p>In most polls, the Liberals are leading Labor. The people who detest the Greens have in the past swung towards the major party most likely to win a majority. If this behaviour is repeated at this election, the Liberals could get home. On the other hand, the unpopularity of the federal Coalition government should help Labor.</p>
<p>In December, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/28/battle-over-poker-machines-to-take-centre-stage-in-tasmanias-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">White announced</a> that a Labor government would remove poker machines from pubs and clubs within five years. I think this is good politics, as it differentiates Labor from the Liberals on an issue that neither major party had tackled in the past. I previously wrote that <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-elections-in-2018-see-2017s-left-wing-revival-continue-89922">left-wing parties</a> that differentiated themselves from conservative parties performed better in 2017 elections.</p>
<p>The Tasmanian upper house will not be up for election on March 3. The 15 upper house members have rotating six-year terms; every May, two or three electorates are up for election. Labor and left-wing independents currently have an upper house majority following a <a href="https://theconversation.com/dems-easily-win-virginia-and-new-jersey-governors-left-gains-control-of-tas-upper-house-86770">November byelection</a> win by Labor.</p>
<p>The last three Tasmanian elections have been held on the same day as the South Australian election (March 17 this year). So, the election date is good news for people interested in elections, as it avoids a clash.</p>
<h2>Xenophon’s party leading in Galaxy polls of three South Australian seats</h2>
<p>There is no sign of any drop in support for Nick Xenophon’s SA-BEST. According to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-29/nick-xenophon-sa-best-leading-in-key-seats-poll-shows/9370674">Galaxy polls</a> conducted January 11-14 for the corporate sector, SA-BEST had 37% in Liberal-held Hartley, which Xenophon will contest, followed by the Liberals with 32% and Labor with 21%; Xenophon led 57-43 after preferences. </p>
<p>In Labor-held Mawson, SA-BEST had 38%, the Liberals 25% and Labor 22%. In Labor-held Hurtle Vale, SA-BEST had 33%, Labor 29% and the Liberals 23%.</p>
<p>Galaxy also polled the federal South Australian seat of Mayo, where SA-BEST member Rebekha Sharkie could be disqualified over <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/citizenship-crisis-bites-nxt-mp-rebekha-sharkie-20171109-gzi5t9.html">the dual citizenship issue</a>. Sharkie would easily retain by a 59-41 margin against the Liberals, from primary votes of 37% Sharkie, 33% Liberal and 18% Labor.</p>
<h2>ReachTEL 52-48 to federal Labor</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/01/28/reachtel-52-48-labor-4/">ReachTEL poll</a> for Sky News, conducted January 25 from a sample of presumably about 2,300, gave Labor a 52-48 lead by respondent-allocated preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition since a late November ReachTEL.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 36% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (up one), 10% Greens (steady) and 8% One Nation (down one). The remaining 12% very likely included some undecided voters who were prompted to show which way they lean. As usual, media sources have not given full primary votes. <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/957440956080439296">Bonham</a> says this poll would be about 54-46 to Labor by 2016 preference flows.</p>
<p>Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings improved; 30% gave him a good rating (up six), 37% an average (up two) and 32% a poor rating (down eight). Bill Shorten’s ratings were 31% good (up one), 32% average (down four) and 36% poor (up three). Turnbull led Shorten by 54-46 as better prime minister, up from 52-48 in November. ReachTEL’s forced-choice “better prime minister” question usually gives opposition leaders better ratings than other polls.</p>
<p>I think Turnbull’s ratings have improved in parliament’s absence because the public is less exposed to the hard-right Coalition backbenchers.</p>
<p>By 44-32, voters opposed cutting the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than A$50 million. By 39-20, voters thought trade deals were good for employment. However by 49-20, voters thought Labor should oppose the Trans Pacific Partnership if it did not protect jobs.</p>
<h2>Essential 54-46 to Labor</h2>
<p>In <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Essential-Report_300118.pdf">this week’s Essential</a>, conducted January 26-28 from a sample of 1,028, Labor led by 54-46, a one-point gain for Labor since last fortnight.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 36% Labor (down two), 35% Coalition (down two), 10% Greens (up one) and 8% One Nation (up two). <a href="https://theconversation.com/strong-us-economy-boosts-trumps-ratings-as-democrats-shut-down-government-for-three-days-90437">As noted last Friday</a>, Essential will appear fortnightly instead of weekly this year.</p>
<p>Essential asked whether the Liberals or Labor would be better at handling various issues. Labor’s position improved on economic management (from Liberals by 15 in June 2017 to Liberals by ten), interest rates (Liberals by ten to Liberals by four) and political leadership (Liberals by eight to Labor by two). The Liberals improved on water supply (Labor by five to Liberals by one).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-elections-in-2018-see-2017s-left-wing-revival-continue-89922">Will elections in 2018 see 2017's left-wing revival continue?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>48% (up four since November) thought Australia’s political and economic system is fundamentally sound, but needs refining, while 32% (steady) thought it should be fundamentally changed, and 8% (down two) thought the system was already working well.</p>
<p>There were large, favourable changes in perceptions of how the economy and unemployment have performed over the last year, compared to February 2016. There was relatively little movement on other economic issues.</p>
<p>51% (down two since August) thought their income had fallen behind the cost of living, 28% stayed even (up three) and 14% gone up more (down one). Private health insurance continued to be very negatively perceived, with the questions last asked in September.</p>
<p>Essential asked whether sports were exciting or boring to watch. Tennis was easily the best with a net +13 rating, followed by swimming at a net +3 and AFL football at a net +2. Twenty20 cricket had a net -7 rating, rugby league and soccer both had a net -15, Test cricket a net -24, rugby union a net -32, and golf was at the bottom on a net -54.</p>
<h2>Far-right Czech Republic president re-elected</h2>
<p>In the a presidential election runoff held January 26-27 in the Czech Republic, the far-right incumbent, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milo%C5%A1_Zeman#Views">Miloš Zeman</a>, defeated his opponent, Jiří Drahoš, by a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_presidential_election,_2018">51.4-48.6 margin</a>. </p>
<p>After a <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-elections-in-2018-see-2017s-left-wing-revival-continue-89922">generally good year for the left</a> in 2017 elections, this was a bad start to 2018.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90827/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The polls are leaning towards the Liberals holding power in Tasmania, but the unpopularity of the federal Coalition government could help Labor get over the line.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.