tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/wa-senate-7719/articlesWA Senate – The Conversation2022-06-21T01:22:29Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1853652022-06-21T01:22:29Z2022-06-21T01:22:29ZFinal Senate results: Labor, the Greens and David Pocock will have a majority of senators<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469891/original/file-20220621-22-3o78bp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some links in this article refer to the Australian Electoral Commission results. These links no longer work; archived AEC results are <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDefault-27966.htm">here</a>.</p>
<p>The final buttons to electronically distribute preferences for the Senate were pressed in NSW, Victoria and Western Australia on Monday. I wrote about the distribution of preferences in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania on Saturday, and the climate activist’s David Pocock’s ACT <a href="https://theconversation.com/act-senate-result-pocock-defeats-liberals-in-first-time-liberals-have-not-won-one-act-senate-seat-184738">Senate victory on Tuesday</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-senate-results-hanson-wins-easily-but-labor-still-on-track-for-a-friendly-senate-185051">More Senate results: Hanson wins easily, but Labor still on track for a friendly Senate</a>
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<p>All states have 12 senators, with six up for election at half-Senate elections. A quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. State senators are elected for six-year terms beginning July 1, barring a double dissolution.</p>
<p>Final <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results/senate">primary votes</a> in WA were Labor 2.42 quotas, the Liberals 2.22, the Greens 1.00, One Nation 0.24, Legalise Cannabis 0.24, the Christians 0.15 and UAP 0.15. The outcome was three Labor, two Liberals and one Green, with Labor gaining from the Liberals.</p>
<p>This was a crucial victory for Labor, because it means Labor, the Greens and Pocock will have a combined 39 of the 76 senators, enough to pass legislation opposed by the Coalition.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/External/SenateStateDop-27966-WA.pdf">preference distribution</a> shows that One Nation was well ahead of the third Liberal when the Liberals were excluded: 0.71 quotas for Labor’s third candidate, Fatima Payman, 0.61 One Nation and 0.46 Liberals. </p>
<p>Had Liberal preferences heavily favoured One Nation, Payman would have lost, but non-exhausting Liberals were about 50-50, with Payman defeating One Nation by 0.85 to 0.75 quotas.</p>
<p>In Victoria, final primary votes were Coalition 2.26 quotas, Labor 2.20, the Greens 0.97, UAP 0.28, Legalise Cannabis 0.21 and One Nation 0.20. Two Coalition, two Labor and one Green were elected, with the UAP’s Ralph Babet defeating the Coalition’s Greg Mirabella for the final seat to gain this seat from the Coalition.</p>
<p>ABC election analyst <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-victorian-senate-election/">Antony Green</a> said Babet led One Nation by 0.44 quotas to 0.40 when One Nation was excluded, and gained over 50% of their preferences. Had Mirabella beaten Labor into third, he may have benefited from Labor preferences. </p>
<p>But he trailed Labor by 0.50 quotas to 0.55 with Babet on 0.64. Babet extended his lead on Mirabella’s preferences to win by 0.83 quotas to 0.69 for Labor.</p>
<p>Final primary votes in NSW were 2.57 quotas for the Coalition, 2.13 Labor, 0.80 Greens, 0.29 One Nation and 0.24 UAP. Three Coalition, two Labor and one Green were elected. This was a Greens gain from Labor. </p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/06/2022-senate-button-press-thread.html">Kevin Bonham</a> said the third Liberal, Jim Molan, defeated One Nation by 2.4%, down from a 4.0% primary vote gap.</p>
<h2>Overall Senate results</h2>
<p>The outcome of this half-Senate election is 15 Coalition out of 40 (down three including a gain from a defector), 15 Labor (steady), six Greens (up three), one One Nation (steady), one Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) (up one), one UAP (up one) and one Pocock (up one). The defector from the Coalition in the NT and two Centre Alliance in SA (one a defector) all lost their seats.</p>
<p>Other than the states listed above, the JLN gained from the Liberals in Tasmania, the Greens gained from the LNP in Queensland, the Liberals and Greens gained from two Centre Alliance in SA, David Pocock gained from the Liberals in the ACT and the NT Country Liberals gained from a defector.</p>
<p>The overall Senate is 32 Coalition out of 76, 26 Labor, 12 Greens, two One Nation, two JLN, one UAP and one Pocock. On legislation opposed by the Coalition, Labor will need the Greens and one of the six Others, most likely Pocock or the JLN. </p>
<p>It’s the highest Senate representation for the Greens, reflecting their wins in all states at the last two half-Senate elections.</p>
<p>The table below shows the results for this election by state and nationally. ONP is One Nation and Others are UAP in Victoria and Pocock in the ACT.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469698/original/file-20220620-12-tap8e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469698/original/file-20220620-12-tap8e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469698/original/file-20220620-12-tap8e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469698/original/file-20220620-12-tap8e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469698/original/file-20220620-12-tap8e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469698/original/file-20220620-12-tap8e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469698/original/file-20220620-12-tap8e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469698/original/file-20220620-12-tap8e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">2022 Senate results.</span>
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<p>The JLN won one seat on just 0.2% of the national vote. They only contested Tasmania, which is easily the least populous Australian state, but all states have 12 senators. </p>
<p>There are many Other parties, but their voters don’t usually like each other, so they struggle to win seats. Left-wing Others prefer Labor and the Greens ahead of right-wing Others, and right-wing Others prefer the Coalition and One Nation.</p>
<h2>Senate primary vote swings were different from House of Representatives swings</h2>
<p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-senate-election-national-totals/">Antony Green</a> has a table of the final national Senate vote. The Coalition won 34.2% (down 3.8% since 2019), Labor 30.1% (up 1.3%), the Greens 12.7% (up 2.5%), One Nation 4.3% (down 1.1%), UAP 3.5% (up 1.1%) and Legalise Cannabis 3.3% (up 1.5%).</p>
<p>House of Representatives <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results/party-totals">national votes</a> were 35.7% Coalition (down 5.7%), 32.6% Labor (down 0.8%), 12.2% Greens (up 1.8%), 5.0% One Nation (up 1.9%), 4.1% UAP (up 0.7%) and 5.3% independents (up 1.9%).</p>
<p>The reason for the swing to One Nation in the House, but a swing against in the Senate was that <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-retains-clear-newspoll-lead-and-large-ipsos-lead-as-record-number-of-candidates-nominate-181600">One Nation contested</a> 149 of the 151 house seats, up from 59 in 2019. In the Senate, One Nation contested all states, as they had in 2019. So the Senate swing is a better guide to One Nation’s overall support.</p>
<p>As One Nation is a right-wing party, they took votes away from the Coalition by contesting almost every House seat. Labor’s House vote was down due to the teal independents, who were not factors in the Senate apart from Pocock in the ACT.</p>
<h2>Senators up at next half-Senate election</h2>
<p>These are the senators who will be up for election if the next election is a normal half-Senate election. That election would need to be held by May 2025.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469727/original/file-20220620-15-1sw1hv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469727/original/file-20220620-15-1sw1hv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469727/original/file-20220620-15-1sw1hv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469727/original/file-20220620-15-1sw1hv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469727/original/file-20220620-15-1sw1hv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469727/original/file-20220620-15-1sw1hv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469727/original/file-20220620-15-1sw1hv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469727/original/file-20220620-15-1sw1hv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">senators up.</span>
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<p>The four ACT and NT senators only have three year terms, while the state senators up are the ones who were elected in 2019. In every state except Tasmania, the Coalition will be defending three seats. Another bad election for the Coalition would be costly in the Senate.</p>
<p>The Greens will be defending their seats in every state, while Pocock will be defending his ACT Senate seat.</p>
<h2>LNP easily holds Callide at Queensland state byelection</h2>
<p>At Saturday’s Queensland state byelection for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld-callide-by-election-2022/results">Callide</a>, the LNP crushed Labor by 71.4-28.6, a 5.6% swing to the LNP since the 2020 state election. Primary votes were 49.8% LNP (down 7.4%), 19.6% Labor (down 6.1%), 14.4% One Nation (did not contest previously) and 9.8% Katter’s Australian Party (up 1.4%). The Greens did not contest the byelection.</p>
<p>This byelection was caused by the resignation of LNP member Colin Boyce to contest the federal seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-311.htm">Flynn</a>, which he won.</p>
<h2>Macron’s coalition loses majority in French legislative elections</h2>
<p>I covered Sunday’s French legislative elections for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/06/19/french-legislative-runoff-elections-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition lost its majority, and will probably depend on the conservative alliance to pass legislation. Both the left and the far-right made big gains.</p>
<p>Also covered: two Conservative-held UK byelections that occur this Thursday, and US President Joe Biden’s ratings are now worse than Donald Trump’s at this point in both their presidencies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This is an important win for the Albanese government, as it means it can pass legislation with the agreement of the Greens and one other.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393022015-03-26T01:21:28Z2015-03-26T01:21:28ZScorn the crossbench, ignore Australian political history<p>Tony Abbott seems to have been entirely surprised by the entirely predictable. The Australian Senate has been amending and rejecting government legislation since federation. Yet in the lead-up to the last election Abbott declared that:</p>
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<p>There will not be deals done with independents and minor parties under any political movement that I lead.</p>
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<p>Last week, the prime minister <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-18/glenn-lazarus-says-abbott-feral-senate-comment-disrespectful/6330114">called them</a> “feral”. He’s not off to a good start.</p>
<p>But Abbott is not alone in ignoring the crucial role played by crossbench and backbench members of parliament. The media and academics often pay too little attention to the people to whom the constitution has given veto power over policy.</p>
<p>Every time an Australian goes grocery shopping they derive a lasting benefit from the transitory power of the Australian Democrats. John Howard, Peter Costello, the Australian Treasury and the overwhelming majority of academic economists thought removing food from the GST made no sense. The Democrats disagreed.</p>
<p>Significantly, unlike the bureaucrats and the academics, the Democrats got to vote in the Senate. Despite his personal preferences, Howard <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/1999/06/22/howards-commitments-to-meg-lees-on-the-gst.html">agreed</a> that a GST on most things was better than a GST on no things. </p>
<p>It is not only crossbenchers but backbenchers from the major parties who often act as the “marginal” member whose final position shapes the outcome. In order to privatise Telstra, Howard persuaded Mal Colston to quit the ALP and <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/1998/10/15/howard-to-accept-colston-vote.html">vote with the Liberals</a> in exchange for promoting him to deputy president of the Senate.</p>
<p>Such chaos! Such uncertainty! I don’t remember the business community complaining about those shenanigans, and I certainly don’t remember the Coalition crying foul.</p>
<p>Julia Gillard <a href="https://theconversation.com/speaker-slipper-slips-in-as-gillard-claims-a-tactical-victory-4453">pulled a similar trick</a> with Peter Slipper when she was in a minority government supported by the Greens’ Adam Bandt and three independents. Perhaps unsurprisingly, many of those who sat mute or quietly cheered when Howard did “whatever it takes” to win his Telstra vote howled in outrage at Gillard’s gambit.</p>
<p>Political commentators spend a lot of time talking about focus groups and marginal voters. Political scientists spend a lot of time talking about “evidence-based policy” and orderly “policy cycles”. But while they may disagree about what “really” drives policy, both groups often overlook the role of the “marginal member of parliament”.</p>
<h2>Chaos? Or just the way the system works?</h2>
<p>In our recent book, <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/items/152294">Minority Policy: Rethinking governance when parliament matters</a>, Brenton Prosser and I draw on historic and international evidence to spell out the crucial role of the independent MP or minor party bloc of votes that have the final say on the form, and passage, of legislation. </p>
<p>Rather than analyse the role of the crossbench, and backbench through the prism of “chaos”, we seek to understand their motivations, analyse their strategies and discuss the role they have played in Australian policymaking.</p>
<p>For 27 of the last 30 years, the Australian government has lacked a majority of the votes required in the Senate to pass legislation without the support of independent or non-government senators. Queensland and the ACT are currently led by minority governments and no Australian state is governed by a party with a majority in both houses. But dealing with the crossbench is not “the new normal”; it has ever been thus.</p>
<p>In writing our book, we interviewed former backbench and crossbench MPs, state and federal, in order to better understand the motivations, tactics and objectives of parliamentarians whose individual votes have, at times, led to the passage, defeat or amendment of legislation. Perhaps unsurprisingly, all of the “marginal members” we interviewed thought it was their role to shape, or block, the passage of legislation that affected their constituencies.</p>
<p>But while crossbench and backbench MPs often play a crucial role in the final shape of legislation, this role is largely ignored in academic and media analyses of policymaking. Even the bureaucracy often appears to be blindsided by the bleeding obvious – namely, that those with the power to block a reform often choose to do so.</p>
<h2>Crossbench vote on the rise</h2>
<p>In the past 30 years, Australian voters have been electing steadily more minor party and independent members of parliament. While modifications to the voting rules may change the composition of minor party candidates that get elected, only the most radical and undemocratic of voting reforms would significantly reduce the number of crossbenchers who get elected. </p>
<p>Whether this leads to “crisis” or a more consultative style of parliamentary decision-making will be determined by the personalities of those we elect and the expectations of those who vote. For those who argue that minor parties are nothing more than an unexpected consequence of voter frustrations, it is important to reflect on the Senate by-election that took place in Western Australia soon after the Abbott government took office.</p>
<p>In the lead-up to the April 2014 Senate by-election, Abbott made clear that he <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/11/tony-abbott-bill-shorten-battle-over-whats-best-for-western-australia">wanted a mandate</a> from the Western Australian voters. The Liberal Party vote fell by more than 5%. So did the ALP vote, while the vote for minor parties and independents <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/06/voters-punish-major-parties-in-western-australian-senate-election-rerun">hit an all-time high</a>.</p>
<p>The Constitution spells out quite clearly that a new law can only be made if a majority of both houses of parliament support it. Given how unusual it is for a government with a majority in the lower house to simultaneously hold a majority in the upper house, the role of “marginal members” to break or shape legislation should be well understood by journalists, political scientists and especially prime ministers.</p>
<p>While recent events suggest that the role of the crossbench has been overlooked by some who should know better, it is likely that recent events will reduce the chances of such an oversight occurring again. At least for another generation. </p>
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<p><em>Minority Policy: Rethinking governance when parliament matters (MUP 2015) will be launched in Melbourne on Tuesday, March 31, at 6.30pm in the Institute of Postcolonial Studies boardroom (RSVP <a href="http://theausinstitute.nationbuilder.com/book_launch_melbourne">here</a>).</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39302/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Richard Denniss is executive director of The Australia Institute. He co-authored Minority Policy: Rethinking governance when parliament matters (MUP 2015) with Dr Brenton Prosser, Senior Research Fellow at the Australian National University and former chief of staff to Senator Nick Xenophon.</span></em></p>Instead of treating crossbenchers in parliament as a source of chaos and an aberration, we should recognise that they play a crucial role in shaping legislation as the constitution provides.Richard Denniss, Adjunct Professor, Crawford School, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/254772014-04-15T04:31:06Z2014-04-15T04:31:06ZThe WA Senate election and the rise of money in Australian politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46338/original/24zbpnmt-1397456123.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Clive Palmer was criticised by Tony Abbott for 'trying to buy seats' in federal parliament through a huge advertising spend at the recent WA Senate election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The issue of political party spending featured prominently during the Western Australian Senate re-election in a manner that we are rarely, if at all, accustomed to in Australian politics. This time, it was the leader of a major party – prime minister Tony Abbott – who castigated a minor party – Clive Palmer’s Palmer United Party (PUP) – for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-01/abbott-accuses-palmer-of-trying-to-buy-wa-seats/5360182">“trying to buy seats in the parliament”</a>.</p>
<p>Certainly, figures compiled by advertising monitoring company <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/will-clive-palmers-splash-cash-work-in-wa-senate-race-20140404-36456.html#ixzz2yT7GkuTY">Ebiquity</a> showed that the PUP spent heavily on campaign advertising during the campaign. According to Eqibuity, the PUP is reported to have spent A$477,000 on 788 political TV commercial slots, more than the combined spend of the Liberals ($53,000), Labor ($68,000) and the Greens ($114,000).</p>
<h2>Palmer isn’t the only big spender</h2>
<p>Palmer met Abbott’s assertions that he was buying votes by accusing Abbott of <a href="http://palmerunited.com/2014/04/pm-hypocrite-attacking-election-spending-clive-palmer/">hypocrisy</a>. Palmer pointed out that the matter of him having money was entirely uncontentious when it was <a href="http://www.smartcompany.com.au/finance/wealth-management/13103-20100201-wealthy-entrepreneur-clive-palmer-dominates-political-party-donations.html">being channelled</a> into the campaign coffers of the LNP in Queensland.</p>
<p>Abbott’s criticisms of Palmer partly reflect the natural cut and thrust of elections. But it was also a reaction to the fact that Palmer had changed the essential dynamics of election campaigns: a minor party was outspending a major party.</p>
<p>The Labor and Liberal parties are only ever concerned about the prospects of being outspent by their major party opponent and the occasional interest group. The campaign budgets of the non-major parties, even an electorally viable one such as the Greens, are only a fraction of their major party counterparts. </p>
<p>For example, at the 2013 federal election, the Liberals <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/parties-ready-to-open-the-ad-floodgates/story-fn9qr68y-1226703783472">reportedly</a> spent $1.5 million and the ALP $1.7 million on metropolitan TV, press and radio advertising in the first two and a half weeks of the campaign. This compares to $89,000 spent by the Greens and $88,000 by the PUP over a similar period. </p>
<h2>What did Palmer’s money achieve?</h2>
<p>Much of the furore about Palmer’s campaign budget at the WA Senate election centred on the concern that his money would buy seats and ultimately control over the Senate.</p>
<p>Yet for all that the PUP spent at the WA Senate election, the party secured only part of a seat on first-preference votes. The PUP achieved <a href="http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefs-17875-WA.htm">0.8735</a> of a quota and only won the seat as a consequence of favourable preference flows from other parties and groups.</p>
<p>The investment was also not sufficient to “buy” PUP control over the Senate, even if the election has increased the party’s presence in the upper house from two to three. While the PUP will have an important bloc in the Senate from July, the balance of power will be shared among ten Greens, one independent and three other parties (or four, depending on how one counts the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party, which has <a href="https://theconversation.com/palmer-set-to-be-in-the-new-senates-driving-seat-19055">announced an alliance</a> with the PUP). </p>
<p>At best, Palmer bought himself a ticket to the Senate show. But his chances of influencing legislative outcomes in the Senate are far from guaranteed.</p>
<h2>Solving the problem</h2>
<p>Although the relationship between the size of a campaign budget and seat wins is far from straightforward or unproblematic, there is no doubt that access to funds enables a party to elevate its brand and to communicate directly with the public.</p>
<p>The high costs associated with modern campaigns – and the unevenness of party campaign budgets – has served to price minor parties and independents out of elections. In the case of the major parties, it has created an increasingly unhealthy obsession with fundraising that skews their organisational focus and priorities.</p>
<p>There are, of course, ways to reduce the extent to which a party is free to spend like a “drunken sailor” at elections, which Abbott accused Palmer of doing in Western Australia. The federal parliament could do what their Queensland and New South Wales counterparts have done and impose caps on election communication expenditure.</p>
<p>In NSW, for example, the <a href="http://www.efa.nsw.gov.au/information_for/parties/parties/prohibited_donations">caps</a> limit how much an individual or group can donate to a party at elections but also how much parties can spend on their upper and lower house campaign. As shown below, the cap kicks in at different amounts depending on the number of candidates that a party endorses.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46343/original/z3zpgnh8-1397457122.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46343/original/z3zpgnh8-1397457122.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46343/original/z3zpgnh8-1397457122.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46343/original/z3zpgnh8-1397457122.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46343/original/z3zpgnh8-1397457122.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46343/original/z3zpgnh8-1397457122.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46343/original/z3zpgnh8-1397457122.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46343/original/z3zpgnh8-1397457122.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Caps on expenditure in NSW state elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Election Funding Authority of NSW</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As electoral law academics Joo-Cheong Tham and Malcolm Anderson <a href="http://democraticaudit.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/thamanderson.pdf">have noted</a>, the expenditure limits are still extremely generous and aspects of the NSW scheme could be strengthened. But their preliminary investigations into the regime appear to suggest that the caps have some capacity to moderate the volume of the main parties’ spending at NSW state elections.</p>
<p>It is impossible to separate money from elections. Campaign advertising is both an important and a legitimate recourse for parties to reach voters – not to mention the likely constitutional barriers to its total prohibition. Imposing caps on electoral expenditure will not fix the system, but it might just restore a modicum of balance and fair play to election contests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25477/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The issue of political party spending featured prominently during the Western Australian Senate re-election in a manner that we are rarely, if at all, accustomed to in Australian politics. This time, it…Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/253062014-04-07T01:39:00Z2014-04-07T01:39:00ZThe ALP becomes its own worst enemy in WA Senate shambles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45696/original/fyhxyvqy-1396757302.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Factional dealings saw Labor senator Louise Pratt demoted in favour of conservative union heavyweight Joe Bullock in the ALP's WA Senate ticket.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The only surprising factor in the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-04/labor-powerbroker-bullock-sorry-over-attack-on-pratt/5367270">stories</a> regarding Joe Bullock, who held the number one position on the ALP Senate ticket at Saturday’s Western Australian Senate byelection, was that they took so long to break into wide circulation.</p>
<p>Bullock, who was <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-senate-results-labor-crashes-to-below-22-25304">elected</a> to the Senate on Saturday, managed to gain pole position on the ALP ticket around a year ago, in the lead-up to the September 2013 federal election.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/04/12/louise-pratt-shafted-in-wa-labor-senate-battle/">part of a deal</a> which saw left candidate Simone McGurk from Unions WA (the state version of the Australian Council of Trade Unions) <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/04/20/seat-of-the-week-hasluck/">gain pre-selection</a> for the state seat of Fremantle, Bullock, from the right-wing Shop Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association (SDA), was able to leap-frog incumbent senator Louise Pratt, who is backed by the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union. </p>
<p>Pratt took the number one position in 2007, which resulted in then-senator <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Webber">Ruth Webber</a> losing her seat. Her fate in the byelection is unclear as counting continues.</p>
<p>As a result of the deal, senator Mark Bishop, a former ally of Bullock’s and the traditional SDA candidate, <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/16748866/unions-gang-up-to-flick-alp-senator/">did not seek pre-selection</a> in 2013, having correctly viewed a third ALP seat as being unwinnable.</p>
<p>Pratt made her disappointment with the demotion known when she released the following post, which remains on Facebook:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>While the deal gained notice in February 2012 during the pre-selection process for the 2013 state election – and again in April 2013 when the WA candidates for the federal Senate were finalised – it remained a relatively low-key story. And it would have remained so, if not for the need to hold a new Senate election in Western Australia.</p>
<p>As the weekend’s results show, as long as the ALP allows union heavyweights to dominate the pre-selection process and nominate candidates at odds with the views of the general membership – and in this case, all left-leaning progressives in the electorate – they will continue to alienate voters.</p>
<h2>Senators on the hustings</h2>
<p>Senate positions are often provided to heavyweights in both major parties. They are able to focus on internal party politics and policy rather than the constituency work required by members of the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>Ordinarily, Senate candidates don’t attract much attention in election campaigns, unless they hold a ministry or shadow ministry position. But ALP apparatchiks must have had their hearts in their mouths ever since the possibility of a re-election for six Western Australian Senate position was raised. They knew what an electoral liability Bullock could be.</p>
<p>Pratt, however, has a relatively high profile in many segments of the Western Australian electorate as a result of her time in state parliament. She has a strong personal following due to her support for <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/we-already-exist--stop-pretending-that-we-dont-20120921-26bpa.html">same-sex marriage</a> and her calls for action on <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/scrap-carbon-tax-bill-defeated-senate">climate change</a>.</p>
<p>While Pratt, who holds her own when dealing with media, was seen out and about on the hustings, The West Australian newspaper had to <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/21951505/labor-rivals-put-unity-on-show/">lure out Bullock</a>, who managed to keep a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/14/wa-senate-poll-bill-shorten-plays-down-differences-with-labor-candidate">very low profile</a> during the first weeks of the campaign.</p>
<p>However, the focus shifted to Bullock in the last two weeks of the campaign as details of his conviction for unlawful assault in 1996 were <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/22346340/labor-wa-candidate-has-assault-conviction/">revealed</a>. This was followed by the release of a recording of a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/audio/2014/apr/04/listen-wa-senator-joe-bullock-speech-in-full-audio">Q&A session</a> after a speech to the Dawson Society, a Christian group, in November last year.</p>
<p>The recording highlighted Bullock’s socially conservative views, his general disdain for progressives within the ALP and his sympathies with his <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbotts-former-ally-joe-bullock-could-be-his-downfall-in-the-senate/story-fncynjr2-1226874754555">old university friend Tony Abbott</a>, whom he claimed had the potential to be a “very good prime minister”.</p>
<p>Bullock was also forced to front the media to <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/22400366/joe-bullock-rules-out-leaving-the-labor-party-if-he-wins-office/">apologise for comments</a> he made about Pratt’s sexuality (she is openly gay) with Pratt by his side.</p>
<h2>Bullock’s views no surprise to the ALP</h2>
<p>Going into this election, the ALP was unable to offer the electorate anything by way of new policies or funding as the results of the Senate re-election would not lead to their winning government or even gaining the balance of power in the Senate. As a result, the ALP encouraged voters to consider the election as a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/clive-palmer-puts-liberals-third-seat-at-risk-in-wa-senate-vote-20140404-3646t.html">referendum on the Abbott government</a>.</p>
<p>The ALP can’t be held be responsible for <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/flight-mh370">flight MH370</a> dominating the news, the Greens using Scott Ludlam’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtqrfiEV8Gs">viral speech in the Senate</a> as a springboard for a strong campaign, or Clive Palmer’s <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/will-clive-palmers-splash-cash-work-in-wa-senate-race-20140404-36456.html">spending spree</a>. But they have no-one to blame but themselves for the Bullock debacle.</p>
<p>On Saturday, the <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/22400366/joe-bullock-rules-out-leaving-the-labor-party-if-he-wins-office/">lack of trust</a> with which Bullock is viewed internally was on display. Suggestions that he couldn’t be relied upon not to jump ship once in the Senate and could turn independent at some point during his six year term were raised.</p>
<p>The counting so far shows the ALP’s primary vote has dipped by 4.8% from its September 2013 result to 21.8%. Pratt did manage to put a bit of pressure back on Bullock when he was forced to wait while <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-05/joe-bullock-waits-for-louise-pratt-to-vote-below-the-line/5370140">she voted below the line</a>, preferencing herself first. </p>
<p>If Pratt does manage to get over the line, it will likely be as a result of her own personal following among ALP voters who voted below the line and the preferences of a number of left-leaning minor parties, who positioned her well above the other ALP and Liberal candidates.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bill Shorten should use the ALP’s poor results in Western Australia as a starting point for serious reform within the party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tim Clarke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reform or wither</h2>
<p>Union power over pre-selection can be limited. John Smith was able to instigate reform in the British Labour Party, introducing the <a href="http://labourlist.org/2014/02/5-things-you-need-to-know-party-reform/">One Member One Vote</a> method to determine pre-selection in 1993, thereby reducing the power of the unions.</p>
<p>The ALP threw away the opportunity for reform when they failed to implement in full the 2010 <a href="http://resources.news.com.au/files/2011/02/18/1226008/222073-labor-review-report.pdf">Bracks-Faulkner-Carr Review</a> recommendation of a tiered system of party primaries for the selection of candidates, which would have limited the influence of unions.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/paul-howes-free-to-push-for-historic-split-between-labor-and-unions-20140324-35d3u.html">Paul Howes</a>, the high-profile former boss of the Australian Workers’ Union, gifted the ALP an opportunity with his recent comments that the relationship between the ALP and unions should be severed as it was damaging both parties. </p>
<p>Former Labor prime minister <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/rein-in-union-influence-in-alp-says-bob-hawke/story-fn59niix-1226875063626">Bob Hawke</a> lent strength to the idea that the relationship needs to be reviewed on the weekend, as did former Labor senator <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-06/wa-senate-election3a-swing-away-from-major-parties/5370250">Chris Evans</a>, who admitted the Bullock scandal had harmed the Labor vote.</p>
<p>With the federal government <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/royal-commission-on-corruption-will-not-extend-to-building-industry-20140403-361f9.html">releasing</a> the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into Union Governance and Corruption, things are only going to get worse for Labor. </p>
<p>Bill Shorten should use the ALP’s poor results in Western Australia as a starting point for <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/22435930/labor-push-to-cut-union-links/">serious reform within the party</a>. It is <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/alp-union-member-rules-crazy-plibersek/story-fn3dxiwe-1226868989043">expected that he will announce</a> that the rule that all members of the ALP must be also be members of a union will be scrapped. </p>
<p>Until the ALP embrace reform, it’s difficult to see how they’ll break this pattern of self-harm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast represents the University of Western Australia on The Conversation's Editorial Board.</span></em></p>The only surprising factor in the stories regarding Joe Bullock, who held the number one position on the ALP Senate ticket at Saturday’s Western Australian Senate byelection, was that they took so long…Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/253102014-04-06T20:07:52Z2014-04-06T20:07:52Z‘Palmer power’ will test Abbott, but it could give Clive some headaches too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45701/original/ckrpr7zq-1396773562.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Clive Palmer will now lead a party in a very powerful position.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Daniel Munoz</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Regardless of whether the Liberals’ Linda Reynolds or Labor’s Senator Louise Pratt wins the last West Australian Senate seat, the Abbott government will need the support of Clive Palmer’s PUP to pass any legislation opposed by the ALP and Greens.</p>
<p>The Greens, it was often said, held the Labor government hostage. Now Palmer can do the same to the Coalition.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/palmer-and-greens-are-the-big-winners-in-west-australian-senate-poll-25305">With the WA win</a> Palmer – whose party increased its WA vote from 5% in September to 12.5% - will have three PUP senators post July 1. He already had an alliance with the Motoring Enthusiast’s Ricky Muir, which made his Senate numbers three, but getting an extra seat has removed his dependence on that link, which could always become problematic.</p>
<p>If the Liberals win the final WA seat the government will need six of the eight crossbenchers to pass legislation which Labor and the Greens are against; if Labor wins the seat, the Coalition will require seven of the eight.</p>
<p>The political rise of the Queensland mining magnate has been one of the extraordinary stories of recent federal politics – a tale of money, chutzpah and farce.</p>
<p>Foreign Minister Julie Bishop <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2014/s3979316.htm">said at the weekend</a> she knew Palmer well. He was very entertaining, she declared, adding that “he can sing and he can dance” (presumably a reference to much-aired clips of Palmer in high spirits).</p>
<p>A merry dance he is likely to lead the government on some of its bills in coming months and years.</p>
<p>Tony Abbott has said the government will be keeping the crossbenchers in the post July 1 Senate “very much in the loop”. Beyond that, its precise management plan is unclear, or unformulated. It is certainly going to need one.</p>
<p>If he knew then what he knows now, would Abbott have rebuffed Palmer’s overtures before the 2013 election for Liberal National Party preselection? If, for instance, Palmer had been the LNP member of Fairfax, instead of the PUP member in command of a substantial Senate team, he would be a noisy internal irritant but not a wider force, and the Coalition’s own numbers in the new Senate would likely be stronger.</p>
<p>Very small players have held the crucial sway in the Senate before. But PUP’s ascension has been a one-off in terms of its creation - by a business/political celebrity with mega wealth who was willing to throw a big bankroll at acquiring parliamentary power.</p>
<p>Looked at another way, its rise also shows, as one Labor strategist remarked, how power can be bought relatively cheaply. Palmer spent several million dollars in pursuit of the WA Senate seat, outspending the majors. That’s what a (gold plated) national advertising campaign for dog food might cost.</p>
<p>But power won’t be all smooth sailing for Palmer. Given the diverse characters and political inexperience of his Senate team, holding them together could be a major feat, made more difficult by the fact he is not in the Senate himself and would prefer not to be tied all the time to the parliament.</p>
<p>One big message out of WA is that the major parties alienated people. Voters took out some of their frustrations about the re-run election on them.</p>
<p>With a 5.5% swing since the September election, the Liberals were down to 33.7%; Labor lost nearly 5%, falling to under 22%. </p>
<p>A decline in the majors’ support and a rise in the PUP and Greens vote was showing up in private party polling late last week. The two parties that seemed to be on the slide as a result of the Tasmanian election stormed home in WA.</p>
<p>Tim Colebatch, former Age columnist and an expert on election numbers, puts the parlous nature of the main parties’ vote into historical context.</p>
<p>On present numbers, this was the third worst result for the Liberals in any post war Senate election in WA, Colebatch says. In 1967 they polled 33.6%; in 1970 25.7%. In the 15 Senate elections from 1974 to 2010 the Liberal Senate vote in WA averaged 44%.</p>
<p>The trend in Labor voting must be alarming for the party, even though there were special factors such as the controversy surrounding the lead Labor candidate Joe Bullock, whose conservative social views and sledging of Pratt put off many people.</p>
<p>On Colebatch’s calculation, the average Labor vote in WA Senate elections was 45.2% in 1983-87 (the Bob Hawke/Brian Burke heyday); 35.1% in 1990-98 (post WA Inc); 34.2% in 2001-07 and 26% in 2010-14.</p>
<p>“There is a long-term trend against federal Labor in WA, and to a lesser extent, Queensland,” he says. “This is not something that began with the carbon tax.”</p>
<p>Colebatch also points out that the Greens vote of 15.9% (up 6.4% from September) is “easily the highest minor party vote in the west since World War 11 – the previous record was 12.5% for the Democrats in 1977. It’s also the highest Greens vote in a Senate election outside Tasmania”.</p>
<p>Whether it is a one-off revival remains to be seen. The Victorian election will be the next test,
It was not just Palmer for whom money counted – the Greens threw a lot of dollars into the campaign. They were also helped by the Labor candidates’ shambles, and Greens Senator Scott Ludlam’s attack on Tony Abbott going viral on the internet.</p>
<p>The micro party votes were mostly little changed; unlike September, when preference whispering delivered one of them a seat (on one count) the magic didn’t work this time.</p>
<p>With Liberal and Labor both in the hunt for the last seat, Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten interpreted the result according their own campaigns.</p>
<p>Abbott, speaking in Japan, said: “The essential point is that for the third time running we’ve got a very strong vote against the carbon tax and against the mining tax.” Shorten said: “This is certainly no endorsement of the Liberals’ cuts to jobs, health and education.” With roughly equal swings against them, both had to find excuses in the nature of this unpopular poll for their vote falls.</p>
<p>What has been a tiresome election will keep each of them on tenterhooks for some time yet while the postal and prepoll votes are counted for the final result.</p>
<p><strong>Listen to the latest Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast, with guest Francis Sullivan, <a href="http://michellegrattan.podbean.com/2014/04/06/francis-sullivan/?token=2287425a928b1498403268c4aff52986">here</a>.</strong></p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/audio/postId/5118886/url/http%253A%252F%252Fmichellegrattan.podbean.com%252F2014%252F04%252F06%252Ffrancis-sullivan%252F/initByJs/1/auto/1" width="100%" height="100" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25310/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Regardless of whether the Liberals’ Linda Reynolds or Labor’s Senator Louise Pratt wins the last West Australian Senate seat, the Abbott government will need the support of Clive Palmer’s PUP to pass any…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/251352014-04-04T03:59:03Z2014-04-04T03:59:03ZChanging times: the economic policies WA needs now<p>One of biggest issues to be addressed in tomorrow’s WA Senate poll - and perhaps one of the most complex, too - is how best to maintain the state’s growth trajectory through the forthcoming period of transition.</p>
<p>Western Australia has undeniably seen the benefits from sustained economic growth over the course of the resources boom, with the state’s per capita gross income rising to around 50% above national levels in little over a decade. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45584/original/2z8jq8pc-1396569575.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45584/original/2z8jq8pc-1396569575.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45584/original/2z8jq8pc-1396569575.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45584/original/2z8jq8pc-1396569575.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45584/original/2z8jq8pc-1396569575.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45584/original/2z8jq8pc-1396569575.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45584/original/2z8jq8pc-1396569575.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Real per capita Gross State Income: WA and Australia, 1992 to 2013.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the latest economic data does support the view that the WA economy has passed the peak of the construction phase of the commodities boom (characterised by growth in productive capacity, high employment and real wage growth). It is now moving to a production phase in which the state’s productive capacity is “put to work” in driving resource volume and export growth. </p>
<p>Early signs of this transition can be seen in reduced capital investment growth, lower participation and rising unemployment. WA’s unemployment rate has almost always been below the national rate, but there are signs that the unemployment and participation gaps are narrowing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45580/original/pkb3vxgg-1396569393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45580/original/pkb3vxgg-1396569393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45580/original/pkb3vxgg-1396569393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45580/original/pkb3vxgg-1396569393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45580/original/pkb3vxgg-1396569393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45580/original/pkb3vxgg-1396569393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45580/original/pkb3vxgg-1396569393.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unemployment and labour force participation: WA and Australia, 1991–2013.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Relatedly, the changing workforce and skills requirements for WA require careful thought. Skilled migration, whether from interstate or from overseas, can only do so much to meet the changing demand for labour in the state. The shifting industrial composition also requires an education and training system flexible enough to retrain WA workers to match the needs of industry.</p>
<p>Housing policy is an also important battleground in this weekend’s elections. </p>
<p>Industry group affordability indicators published recently suggest that WA isn’t significantly out of line with other states and territories. However, most of these measures dwell on cost burdens for the “typical” family and house, disguising some big economic and social issues facing policymakers. </p>
<p>The Perth housing market has a real problem providing affordable rentals to low income families, or the right types of properties in the right locations. The housing sector points to high construction, regulation and approvals costs as the main impediment to the efficient supply of affordable housing. Whatever the cause, these issues are common topics of conversation for West Australians, and must be addressed convincingly by Senate election candidates. </p>
<p>Australia raises proportionately more in direct taxation than the OECD average (around 60%, two thirds of which is personal income taxation) but significantly less from indirect taxes (mainly GST) - 13% against an OECD average of around 19%.</p>
<p>Federal Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson this week rehearsed the positive arguments for shifting the balance of income taxation and GST more towards the latter, but the context is not textbook. If you had to raise more revenue as a government to honour public spending commitments on NDIS, health and schools reform, support the ageing baby boomer population, and defend against falling terms of trade, which would you choose? </p>
<p>The subtle increases in direct tax revenues through fiscal drag can stretch only so far, and more overt increases in company or personal income taxation face strong political headwinds. It does seem unnecessarily restrictive for the Federal government to deliver effective tax policy in more challenging economic times with its GST hand tied behind its back. However, consumption taxes may be more efficient, but they’re more regressive too.</p>
<p>WA households have experienced significant real incomes growth over the course of the resources boom, not just in absolute terms but relative to the national trend. But this growth hasn’t been distributed evenly, and the impact of an increase in GST tends to fall regressively on lower income earners who are less able to substitute away from consumption. </p>
<p>With the falling allocation of the GST wealth share to WA - down to 4.2% - placing more pressure on the state’s spending program, there is a need to ensure that economic policy responses don’t contribute to further increases in inequality beyond those already seen. </p>
<p>When it comes to GST shares, it’s hard to argue that WA gets out what it puts in. However, whether the GST return to WA is “fair” (or at least reasonable) depends on the position one takes on the redistributive philosophy underlying the allocation of GST shares across states and territories. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre is an independent economic and social research organisation located within Curtin Business School at Curtin University. The Centre was established in 2012 with support from Bankwest (a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia) and Curtin University.
The views in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affiliates.</span></em></p>One of biggest issues to be addressed in tomorrow’s WA Senate poll - and perhaps one of the most complex, too - is how best to maintain the state’s growth trajectory through the forthcoming period of transition…Alan Duncan, Director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre and Bankwest Research Chair in Economic Policy, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/252142014-04-04T03:41:06Z2014-04-04T03:41:06ZWA Senate: Palmer’s making a noise as rivals fret about turnout<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45511/original/598tnn6k-1396503442.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Western Australia has been the capital of grip and grin in recent weeks, but how will it all play out at the ballot box come tomorrow?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ahead of polling day tomorrow in the Western Australian Senate re-election, the University of Western Australia’s Natalie Mast sat down with election analyst and PhD candidate William Bowe (aka “The Poll Bludger”) to evaluate the campaign.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Natalie Mast:</strong> What have been some of the key issues covered by the campaign?</p>
<p><strong>William Bowe:</strong> They’re very different depending on whose campaign you’re talking about. The Liberal campaign has been trying as much as possible to make the election about the mining and carbon taxes.</p>
<p>The Palmer United Party – rather more successfully – has been trying to make it about GST revenue. That’s an issue the major parties don’t want to talk about as it pleases people in Western Australia and angers people everywhere else. But Palmer is free to be populist and opportunist on that issue.</p>
<p>The Labor Party are talking about cuts. They’re tying in what the Barnett government is doing to what the Abbott government might conceivably do, and trying to work a bit of industrial relations in there in relation to penalty rates.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM:</strong> Tuesday seemed to mark the first day that either major party was actually willing to put money on the table, with the Liberals offering A$50 million for rural health and $10 million for a strike force to battle bikies. Obviously with no chance of gaining government, there isn’t much that the Labor Party can offer. </p>
<p>So what are the differences that you’ve noticed between this campaign and a normal federal campaign?</p>
<p><strong>WB:</strong> Well, as you say, Labor aren’t really putting policies on the table and it wouldn’t be credible for them to do so. So, the Labor Party are trying to make it about putting a brake on the federal government rather than necessarily giving the electorate too sharp a policy focus.</p>
<p>It’s very difficult to discuss the campaign without talking about the Palmer United Party because they have been the loudest voice in this campaign. They have had more advertising than the two major parties put together and, yes, they’ve very much tried to tap into parochial sentiment.</p>
<p>The policies that you mention in relation to the Liberal Party are the only concrete policies that I’ve heard mentioned, presumably for the reasons that it’s only the Liberal Party who can get up and say that they’re in a position to deliver anything.</p>
<p>The Palmer United Party, however, is pretending that they’re in a position to deliver something. They’re making out that if you vote for the Palmer United Party then somehow this will cause more GST revenue to stay in Western Australia. It’s only people who actually read the newspapers that are aware that they’re in no position to deliver on it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45512/original/3mmwt9zd-1396503800.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45512/original/3mmwt9zd-1396503800.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45512/original/3mmwt9zd-1396503800.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45512/original/3mmwt9zd-1396503800.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45512/original/3mmwt9zd-1396503800.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45512/original/3mmwt9zd-1396503800.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45512/original/3mmwt9zd-1396503800.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Palmer United Party is pretending that they’re in a position to deliver something to Western Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tim Clark</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM:</strong> Last Saturday, The West Australian (Weekend West) newspaper ran what could only be described as a hatchet job on Clive Palmer and the Palmer United Party. They continued on April 1 as well, pointing out the possibility of many of his promises. </p>
<p>So, is Palmer still breaking through as a result of his advertising? Or has The West Australian killed it for him in WA?</p>
<p><strong>WB:</strong> My feeling is that Clive Palmer doesn’t really mind getting negative coverage so long as he’s on the front page. I think that the very fact that he’s getting this amount of coverage lets you know that clearly the Liberal Party are spending more time criticising him than criticising the Labor Party, so obviously they think he’s cutting through. </p>
<p>The West Australian is running quite an activist campaign to try and redress this. It might have a counter effect if gets Palmer United elected. And clearly this wouldn’t be happening if there wasn’t a very strong sense both in the media and in political circles that the Palmer United Party is pulling off what it did at the federal election and spending its way into prominence in the final weeks of the campaign. </p>
<p>And whereas that didn’t get them very far in the Tasmanian election, I do think that they are succeeding in this campaign. Their message really is resonating in Western Australia and Clive Palmer is seen more sympathetically in a mining state like WA than he was in Tasmania.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM:</strong> 14% of the electorate has already cast a pre-poll vote or applied for a postal vote. How realistic do you think are the claims from defence minister and WA senator David Johnston that turnout could be as low 60-65%?</p>
<p><strong>WB:</strong> I will be surprised if that’s not an exaggeration. The only byelection that I can recall when things fell that low was the Melbourne byelection in Victoria – a state byelection where the turnout fell very low and that was mostly to do I think with Melbourne having a lot of students in it and the byelection being held during the semester break.</p>
<p>Historically, it has required some sort of extraordinary localised one-off event to drive turnout that low. It might be be argued that the extraordinary factor here is that the election was brought about by an administrative error. But, even so, a lot of byelections happen because of self-indulgent retirements by local members and even that leads to a lot of alienation and disengagement from the whole thing – but it never causes turnout to fall quite that low. </p>
<p>I would expect that below 70% is a realistically pessimistic estimate. Perhaps David Johnston knows more than I do, but I think it’s more likely that he has a political objective in mind in trying to promote the idea that it will be as low as that.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM:</strong> Have you seen any specific polling related to Saturday’s election?</p>
<p><strong>WB:</strong> No, absolutely none. The best you can do is look at state breakdowns from federal polling, and it, of course, is not asking people how they’re going to vote at the Senate election. This is a slightly different question and just general federal voting intentions. It could be that the two things are bleeding together though, so it’s a good guide. </p>
<p>Interestingly, I’ve seen a number of polls from small samples that have the Palmer United Party vote up to 10%. So if you aggregate all of those small sample polls together, I think there’s very strong evidence to suggest that voting intention for the Palmer United Party is well up on the very strong result at the federal election – from not much above 5% to perhaps approaching double figures.</p>
<p>The question is, though, how much does voting intention translate into voting actuality? I think it’s agreed that turnout will be lower, and pollsters in this country don’t have much experience at turning low turnout factors into concrete poll results. They do in the United States – it’s a big part of polling there – but pollsters here are traditionally able to take for granted the fact that we’ll get almost full turnout.</p>
<p>So, that really is a big imponderable and it’s making it very difficult to call.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45515/original/xcrnk7jq-1396504238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45515/original/xcrnk7jq-1396504238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45515/original/xcrnk7jq-1396504238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45515/original/xcrnk7jq-1396504238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45515/original/xcrnk7jq-1396504238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45515/original/xcrnk7jq-1396504238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45515/original/xcrnk7jq-1396504238.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How much does voting intention translate into voting actuality?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM:</strong> Antony Green has announced that the ABC will be having live election-night coverage. What do you reckon we’re going to know by the end of the evening?</p>
<p><strong>WB:</strong> Probably the picture will be somewhat clearer. It may be entirely clear at the end of election night. There’s talk that we may not know the outcome for several weeks – certainly that’s possible. But it’s equally possible that the result will emerge with enough clarity – it’s yet another imponderable.</p>
<p>If it isn’t a clear-cut result, then probably we are going to have to wait several weeks. I think we’ll probably get one or the other – either we’ll know straight away on election night or we’ll have a fairly long wait. I don’t think it’s likely that the immediate week of early counting will add much clarity. So either we’ll know that the Liberals have clearly got the three quotas; we’ll clearly know that Labor and the Greens between them have got the three quotas.</p>
<p>I think there’s good reason to suspect it will be murkier than that, because if the Palmer United Party does poll very well then it will win a seat. But the question is, who is it winning a seat from? Is it poaching a third seat from the Liberals, or is it reducing Labor and the Greens to two seats again?</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM:</strong> Are you willing to make a prediction as to what the most likely outcome will be?</p>
<p><strong>WB:</strong> It’s really difficult. There’s very good evidence that the Palmer United Party is up to 10%: that does mean that they’re winning a seat, and it really does depend which side of the ledger that comes from. </p>
<p>I tend to think that the left [Labor and the Greens] is being squeezed back to two seats again, in which case I think that Louise Pratt might be in trouble, because I think that Scott Ludlam’s campaign is really building a head of steam.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25214/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations. She represents the University of Western Australia on The Conversation's Editorial Board.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Bowe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of polling day tomorrow in the Western Australian Senate re-election, the University of Western Australia’s Natalie Mast sat down with election analyst and PhD candidate William Bowe (aka “The Poll…Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaWilliam Bowe, PhD Candidate, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/250302014-04-03T19:49:27Z2014-04-03T19:49:27ZWA Senate byelection puts parties in unfamiliar territory<p>Federal ALP leader Bill Shorten recently likened the sensation of campaigning at the Western Australian Senate byelection to <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/21939050/election-like-tricycle-ride-without-pedals/">riding downhill on a tricycle</a> with legs and feet akimbo. This assessment is as ebullient as it is apt.</p>
<p>Byelections are atypical electoral contests, which usually lack the momentum and urgency of full elections. They are almost always plagued by low turnout and general voter apathy.</p>
<p>This byelection is particularly novel because of the size of the electorate that will take part and the chamber that is the subject of the contest. This byelection affects 1.48 million electors who will vote as a single statewide constituency to elect six senators. This compares to the more familiar cases of electorates that involve 90,000 or so voters who are asked to elect a single candidate to represent a more tightly contained constituency.</p>
<p>Similarly, the circumstances that occasioned this byelection are different to most. Byelections are commonly triggered by the retirement of a local member. The result is that voters almost always <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/rp/2010-11/11rp02.pdf">punish the incumbent party</a>.</p>
<p>This time it will be much more difficult for voters to reprove any one particular party because <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-senate-ballot-farce-fix-the-date-fix-the-problems-21306">the agent responsible</a> for recalling them to the ballot box is the Australian Electoral Commission.</p>
<h2>Balance of power unlikely to change</h2>
<p>As a number of <a href="http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/at_stake_in_wa">commentators</a> have observed, the outcome of the WA Senate byelection is unlikely to materially affect the balance of the new Senate from July 2014.</p>
<p>The Abbott Coalition government will not emerge with a majority of senators even if, as looks likely, it does secure three of the six vacancies. The government will still have to negotiate to get its bills though the chamber. </p>
<p>What is ultimately at stake is not control of the Senate but the political credibility of the competing parties.</p>
<p>For the Palmer United Party (PUP), this byelection is a test of electoral viability that it can ill afford to fail. If the outcome was measured only in terms of the size of a party’s <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/22265757/big-two-fear-palmer-success/">campaign spend</a>, then PUP would be assured of victory. But the party’s lacklustre performance at the <a href="http://elections.uwa.edu.au/elecdetail.lasso?keyvalue=188">Tasmanian</a> and <a href="http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/elections/2014-state-election-results-summary/legislative-council-state-summary">South Australian</a> state elections last month has cast doubt over its prospects of securing a Senate vacancy.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-23/labor-launches-wa-senate-election-campaign-in-perth/5339486">flash mob in the Perth CBD</a> might be an innovative way for the Greens to launch their campaign but it might not be enough to save Scott Ludlam. The Greens need this win after a run of <a href="http://m.afr.com/p/business/sunday/greens_slump_could_be_turning_point_HkXWgnos58Yk1KcFVkSLVP">electoral disappointments</a>. On a more practical front, the loss of Ludlam may add considerably to the workload of the Greens’ already stretched parliamentary group.</p>
<h2>Major parties play it as a referendum</h2>
<p>This byelection also carries risks for the major parties. While it would be a mistake to draw hasty conclusions about the broader political landscape based on the results of this byelection, both sides have invited such speculation by claiming the contest is a mini-referendum on their opponents.</p>
<p>For its part, the Abbott government has campaigned on the repeal of the carbon and mining taxes, two issues that have traction in Western Australia. The success of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-29/pm-hails-100-days-without-an-asylum-seeker-boat-arrival/5354100">Operation Sovereign Borders</a> has also buoyed the government’s electoral outlook.</p>
<p>But as one of the Liberals’ staunchest states, even the smallest dint in support for the party in Western Australia has the potential to harm the government in the short and long-term. Labor would use such a result to make the case that whatever “mandate” the government may have had from the general election last September has evaporated.</p>
<p>Labor’s campaign has centred on the party’s core policy areas of health, education and job security. Shorten has used the impending May federal budget to talk up the prospects of cuts to public services. A teachers’ strike on Wednesday provided the opposition leader with access to a sympathetic audience of <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/22294168/shorten-and-abbott-clash-over-wa-schools/">20,000</a> potential voters.</p>
<p>But while federal ALP has a new leader, the old politics of the party remain bare for all to see. Labor’s number one Senate candidate, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/bill-shorten-defends-lowprofile-wa-senate-candidate/story-fn59niix-1226852644429">Joe Bullock</a>, is a controversial former shop union state secretary.</p>
<p>In regular elections, parties are generally able to manage the visibility of their more problematic Senate candidates. This byelection has made it impossible for senate candidates to avoid the scrutiny that is typically reserved for lower house candidates and party leaders. With <a href="http://resources.news.com.au/files/75/232/104a5aee-b800-11e3-a264-cacd3e0700b0..pdf">Newspoll</a> showing that Western Australian voters continue to remain unconvinced by federal Labor, its lead senate candidate is unlikely to enhance the party’s electoral prospects.</p>
<p>Given the size of the field it may take some weeks before the full results are confirmed. In the meantime, buckle up and enjoy what is likely to be an intriguing show.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25030/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Federal ALP leader Bill Shorten recently likened the sensation of campaigning at the Western Australian Senate byelection to riding downhill on a tricycle with legs and feet akimbo. This assessment is…Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/251472014-04-03T00:02:24Z2014-04-03T00:02:24ZWA Senate Re-Election Preview<p>At the last federal election, there was a very close exclusion which affected the final result in the WA Senate. This was compounded by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-has-happened-in-the-wa-senate-count-19797">losing 1400 votes</a>. Acting as the Court of Disputed Returns, the High Court declared the 2013 WA Senate election void, and ordered a new election. This election will be held on Saturday 5 April. All six Senate positions that are normally scheduled for half-Senate elections will be up for election.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, no public polls have asked specifically about the WA Senate election. We have breakdowns for these polls from WA, but these polls ask people how they would vote if a <em>general election</em> were to be held. They are thus of limited use in predicting the result of a Senate election.</p>
<p>The major contenders for the WA Senate election are Labor, the Liberals, the Greens, Palmer United Party (PUP) and the Nationals. There is a remote possibility that a micro-party, such as Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) could win on favourable preference deals, but this is unlikely.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://originaltruthseeker.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/private-data.html">Truth Seeker’s blog</a> appears to have some private poll data that has PUP at about 10%, with Labor slightly down on their weak 2013 performance, the Greens well up to more than a quota (14.3%), and the Liberals well down on 2013. Polling has a tendency to overestimate the Greens and underestimate Labor; we saw this in Tasmania. In any case, if the total Labor/Green vote exceeds 42.9% (3 quotas), then three Labor/Greens will be elected. This would be up from 2 at the 2013 election. Although Labor and Greens preferences go to other left wing micro-parties before each other, it is unlikely that these other parties will do well enough to interfere with a Labor/Green preference swap.</p>
<p>PUP has been outspending the major parties by a massive amount, and they may threaten the Liberals for the third seat. However, the Liberal Democrats and some other right wing parties are preferencing the Liberals ahead of PUP, so it will be harder for PUP to win than at the 2013 election.</p>
<p>I believe that the most likely scenario is for the Liberals to win three seats, Labor two and the Greens one. There is a realistic chance that the third Liberal seat will go to either the Nationals or PUP. I think it is very likely that Labor and the Greens will win three combined seats. <a href="http://originaltruthseeker.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/new-bludgertrack-data-private-polling.html">Truth Seeker’s</a> simulation method agrees with this assessment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25147/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
At the last federal election, there was a very close exclusion which affected the final result in the WA Senate. This was compounded by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) losing 1400 votes. Acting…Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/251512014-04-02T21:59:23Z2014-04-02T21:59:23ZFactCheck: did Labor cut $1.2 billion from schools funding?<p><em>“I think it’s more than a tad hypocritical of the Labor Party to be campaigning against what it says are cuts to school funding when Bill Shorten as education minister cut $1.2 billion out of school funding just before the election. There is $1.2 billion more in school funding now then there was in the Pre-Election Financial Outlook statements because we’ve put the money in that Bill Shorten cut out.”</em> – Tony Abbott</p>
<hr>
<p>These comments from prime minister Tony Abbott came after opposition leader Bill Shorten addressed a teachers’ strike to protest education cuts by Western Australia’s Liberal state government. So is Abbott justified in calling Shorten a hypocrite? </p>
<p>The A$1.2 billion Tony Abbott refers to was additional funding that the former Labor government offered to three states to entice them to sign up to its Gonski school funding model before the last federal election. When those states – Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory – did not sign up in time, the $1.2 billion was removed from Labor’s forward estimates. The Coalition called this a “cut” in funding.</p>
<p>When the Coalition government’s education minister Christopher Pyne <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-02/abbott-gonski/5129118">reversed</a> his decision to abolish the Gonski reforms, he also promised to restore the additional $1.2 billion in funding that had been taken out of the forward estimates.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>The claim is half-right. It is wrong to accuse Labor of cutting $1.2 billion out of school funding when the money was never anything more than a conditional offer. But when Pyne adopted the Gonski model last December, the Coalition government did commit an additional $1.2 billion to schools funding – so this part of Abbott’s statement is correct.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>I agree with the verdict, but the context and detail here is very significant. It is not just about figures but about how and where the additional money is to be used. The repeated backflips and policy position switches from the Abbott government – so early into its term – have been astounding.</p>
<p>After <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/back-to-drawing-board-for-gonski-says-christopher-pyne/story-fn59nlz9-1226767435893">announcing</a> they would dump <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-gonski-anyway-13599">the Gonski model</a> and the former government’s deals with the states, three new states signed up and the government honoured the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-02/abbott-gonski/5129118">other state deals again</a>.</p>
<p>But the government is only committing to four years of these agreements, not the original six promised by the Gillard government – leaving the states missing around 70% of the funding they were first promised.</p>
<p>Moreover, the $1.2 billion comes with “no strings” attached - there is no requirement for the three states to contribute any money of their own on public education. There’s nothing to stop the money being used to support new private schools or to further advantage already well funded schools.</p>
<p>This leaves these newly signed up states to take as much as they like out of school funding while the commonwealth pours money in.</p>
<p>Over the last few years, Queensland and the Northern Territory have taken money out of public education, to the tune of billions of dollars. The fact that the co-contribution requirement has gone will mean more state funding could go, leaving state schools, that have the most disadvantaged students, worse off. - <strong>David Zyngier</strong></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25151/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louise Watson is a Director of the Education Institute at the University of Canberra which receives funding from federal and state governments for research and development. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Zyngier receives funding from the Australian research Council</span></em></p>“I think it’s more than a tad hypocritical of the Labor Party to be campaigning against what it says are cuts to school funding when Bill Shorten as education minister cut $1.2 billion out of school funding…Louise Watson, Professor and Director, The Education Institute, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/251312014-04-02T02:00:47Z2014-04-02T02:00:47ZWhy the world has reason to watch the WA Senate election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45341/original/jzhprf38-1396393921.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Leading economist Ross Garnaut has weighed in on the WA Senate re-election and the importance of keeping the carbon tax.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s been a lot of international focus on Western Australia in recent weeks. The search for the lost Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 is being <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2014/03/30/mh370-australia-sets-up-top-level-perth-command-post/">led from Perth</a>. But it also turns out that Western Australia is garnering international attention as a result of this Saturday’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-wa-senate-re-election-25074">Senate re-election</a>.</p>
<p>Economist <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ross-garnaut-237/profile_bio">Ross Garnaut’s</a> sobering presentation at a CEDA lunch in Perth, entitled <a href="http://www.ceda.com.au/events/eventdetails/2014/04/w140401?EventCode=W140401">The case for conserving the carbon laws</a>, brought home the fact that in a globalised world, Western Australia is no longer as isolated as it once was.</p>
<p>Garnaut recounted a recent meeting with British economist Lord Nicholas Stern, author of a influential 2006 paper on the economics of climate change. Stern thought the outcome of the Western Australian Senate re-election could have a global influence.</p>
<p>Garnaut noted that the Senate election, which the Abbott government has been fighting as a referendum on repealing the <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/2014-04-01/joint-remarks-wa-senate-candidates-perth">carbon tax</a> (among other issues), has raised the interest of Europeans. They are curious about Australia’s response to the challenges of climate change and the government’s attempt to repeal a number of initiatives while attempting to jettison the so-called “carbon tax”. </p>
<p>Along with <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-rejects-commonwealth-climate-change-risk-fund-20131118-2xplc.html">Canada</a>, Australia has become an outlier in the developed world when it comes to policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Garnaut claimed that Australia is complicating the politics of climate change in other countries. While Europe, the United States, Japan and China are starting to ramp up their efforts to battle climate change, Australia is now seen internationally as a drag - to the point that there has been diplomatic feedback outlining the concerns of other nations about the Abbott government’s climate policies.</p>
<p>Garnaut argued that, in the longer term, the government should be grateful to the current Senate for blocking the repeal package. He noted that the outcome of Saturday’s poll could make it more difficult for the government to pass its repeal bills through the Senate after July 1 if the mix of senators saw the left-leaning parties gain a third seat in Western Australia.</p>
<p>Garnaut argued strongly against the government’s <a href="http://www.liberal.org.au/our-plan/environment">direct action plan</a>, claiming it was likely to be far more costly in the long run. He noted that if the government was to repeal the carbon tax, it would face a A$7 billion hole in the next budget.</p>
<p>Scientists have long argued that the southwest of Western Australia will be one of the hardest-hit areas on the planet as a result of climate change. Garnaut pointed out that Perth is already experiencing reduced average rainfalls and becoming increasingly reliant on two desalination plants. He argued that Western Australians should be aware of the increasing climate changes the state was likely to experience in the future.</p>
<p>Garnaut concluded his speech by saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>True Australian conservatives would be barracking for votes against repeal in WA’s Senate election on Saturday.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Meanwhile, on the hustings…</h2>
<p>Federal cabinet, opposition leader Bill Shorten and Palmer United Party leader Clive Palmer were all in Perth on Tuesday campaigning.</p>
<p>Proving this really is a second-order election, the government had been, to this point, revisiting the promises made at the last election. Meanwhile, the opposition keeps suggesting the poll will be a referendum on the Abbott government’s performance. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Tony Abbott announced that the government will provide $50 million for regional health funding in Western Australia. Another $10 million over four years will be provided to establish a strike team to battle bikie gangs.</p>
<p>While Cabinet was meeting, opposition leader Bill Shorten <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=963351&vId=4392802&cId=Top%20Stories">addressed a rally</a> of around 20,000 striking public school teachers and teaching assistants as well as disgruntled parents. </p>
<p>The rally was protesting the WA state government’s cuts to education. This is actually a long-running dispute with the Barnett government, even though the strike has been accused of being <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/thousands-of-teachers-strike-march-on-parliament-103-schools-closed/story-fnhocxo3-1226870863268">politically motived</a>, having taken place in the lead-up to Saturday’s election.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45342/original/hfxq2j7t-1396395233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45342/original/hfxq2j7t-1396395233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45342/original/hfxq2j7t-1396395233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45342/original/hfxq2j7t-1396395233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45342/original/hfxq2j7t-1396395233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45342/original/hfxq2j7t-1396395233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45342/original/hfxq2j7t-1396395233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Opposition leader Bill Shorten addressed a rally of striking public school teachers in Perth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tim Clarke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Greens leader Christine Milne <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/04/01/historic-wa-senate-vote-approaches">addressed WA</a> from the National Press Club in Canberra, encouraging Western Australians to:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…bring home the vibe to the heart of the parliament, to the Senate.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Clive Palmer was front and centre at his press conference in Perth, making <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/01/clive-palmer-splashes-out-with-dollars-but-not-policies-in-wa-campaign">impossible promises</a> to increase WA’s share of the goods and services tax. Meanwhile, his party’s lead Senate candidate, Dio Wang, <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/clive-palmer-denies-hiding-his-partys-lead-candidate-dio-wang-for-wa-senate-poll-rerun/story-fnhocxo3-1226871121681">couldn’t be found</a>.</p>
<p>However, the big political news of the day was that former state treasurer Troy Buswell has been charged with <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/22305452/buswell-charged-over-subiaco-crashes/">11 driving offences</a> as a result of his early morning drive on February 23 that led to his resignation from state cabinet.</p>
<p>Finally, two political hoaxes fought for line honours in Western Australia on April Fool’s Day. Shorten gets an honourable mention for these Twitter pranks:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45339/original/xx9b63kq-1396392726.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45339/original/xx9b63kq-1396392726.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45339/original/xx9b63kq-1396392726.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=103&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45339/original/xx9b63kq-1396392726.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=103&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45339/original/xx9b63kq-1396392726.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=103&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45339/original/xx9b63kq-1396392726.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45339/original/xx9b63kq-1396392726.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45339/original/xx9b63kq-1396392726.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45340/original/bgnqtrp3-1396392743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45340/original/bgnqtrp3-1396392743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45340/original/bgnqtrp3-1396392743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=101&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45340/original/bgnqtrp3-1396392743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=101&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45340/original/bgnqtrp3-1396392743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=101&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45340/original/bgnqtrp3-1396392743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45340/original/bgnqtrp3-1396392743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45340/original/bgnqtrp3-1396392743.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the winner has to be the gentlemen who <a href="http://media.theage.com.au/news/national-news/missing-wa-senate-ballots-found-5312090.html">“found”</a> the <a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-ballots-might-lead-to-fresh-wa-senate-poll-19736">missing WA Senate ballots</a> in a laundry bag.</p>
<p>And by the way, it’s not too late for WA voters to fill in the University of Western Australia’s <a href="http://wasenatesurvey.csp.uwa.edu.au/">survey of the WA electorate</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations. She represents the University of Western Australia on The Conversation's Editorial Board.</span></em></p>There’s been a lot of international focus on Western Australia in recent weeks. The search for the lost Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 is being led from Perth. But it also turns out that Western Australia…Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/250742014-04-01T04:26:33Z2014-04-01T04:26:33ZExplainer: the WA Senate re-election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45214/original/78bqhkc9-1396310816.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Leaders of both major parties are campaigning in Western Australia this week as the state heads back to the polls to elect six senators.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Western Australians will head back to the polls to elect six members of the Senate this Saturday. But what are the issues that caused the original result to be declared void? And what are some of the more important technical aspects of Saturday’s poll?</p>
<h2>Why is WA voting again this Saturday?</h2>
<p>The votes for the Western Australian Senate election were counted twice after the federal election of September 7 last year. A recount was ordered due to the closeness of the original result. During this process the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) lost 1,70 ballot papers, causing the Court of Disputed Returns to <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2014/02-20.htm">declare the result void</a> and order a fresh election.</p>
<p>Mick Keelty, a former commissioner of the Australian Federal Police, conducted an inquiry into the missing votes. Keelty’s <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/Publications/Reports_On_Federal_Electoral_Events/2013/files/inquiry-into-the-2013-wa-senate-election.pdf">report</a> noted the logistical difficulties faced by the AEC in conducting an election. These were exacerbated by Kevin Rudd’s decision to change the 2013 election date set earlier in the year by Julia Gillard. </p>
<p>While not finding any evidence of corruption or malicious intent, Keelty’s report concluded that it was impossible to determine exactly how the ballots had gone missing. The AEC <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-06/missing-wa-votes/5141260">has accepted</a> all recommendations from the report.</p>
<p>The AEC has also acknowledged that this incident <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lost-votes-have-left-doubt-about-wa-senate-result-aec-head-admits-20131104-2wvhu.html">damaged its reputation</a>, which led to electoral commissioner Ed Killesteyn’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-21/aec-resignation/5275828">resignation</a> in February. Peter Kramer, the Australian electoral officer for Western Australia, also resigned. </p>
<p>While the University of Western Australia’s <a href="http://wasenatesurvey.csp.uwa.edu.au/">Senate election survey</a> is yet to close, preliminary results show the WA electorate recognises the challenges the AEC faces. About 90% of respondents have indicated “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of faith in the organisation.</p>
<h2>Logistics and statistics</h2>
<p>Nearly 7000 temporary staff employed by the AEC will be working on Saturday. The AEC <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wa-senate-election-rerun-to-cost-20-million-20140225-33g5l.html">has estimated</a> the cost of the election at A$20 million. Voting is compulsory for the <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/wa-senate/statistics.htm">1,480,303</a> Western Australians on the <a href="https://oevf.aec.gov.au/">federal electoral roll</a>. </p>
<p>For those who have not already voted by postal vote or at an early voting location, over <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/wa-senate/voting.htm#pp">700 polling places</a> will be open on election day. For Western Australians who find themselves interstate, polling places are in operation in the CBDs of all state and territory capital cities. The fine for not voting without a valid reason is $20.</p>
<p>This election should be considered a fresh election for two reasons. First, the parties and candidates running are not exactly the same as in the September election. The 2014 ballot paper has 15 extra candidates. </p>
<p>Secondly, the <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/almost-30000-extra-votes-expected-in-wa-senate-rerun-20140313-34p75.html">make-up of the electorate has changed</a>. An additional 28,031 voters are now enrolled. This represents a 1.9% increase since the September poll and includes those who have turned 18 or become Australian citizens since the election. </p>
<p>The roll has also changed to reflect voters arriving from or departing to interstate and overseas, together with the AEC’s routine processes to remove from the rolls deceased voters and those who change address without updating their enrolment details.</p>
<h2>Methods of voting</h2>
<p>Senators are elected according to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote">Single Transferable Vote</a> method of proportional representation. This involves a complex process by which candidates are progressively elected or excluded from the count and their preferences distributed to other candidates. At a normal half-Senate election for six senators, the quota for election is effectively one-seventh of all formal votes cast.</p>
<p>Voters have two options in marking their ballot papers:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Above the line, where a single vote is cast for a list of candidates who wish to be grouped on the ballot paper. Usually this applies to the candidates of a particular party, but the option is available to unendorsed independents and coalitions wishing to appear as a joint ticket.</p></li>
<li><p>Below the line, where all <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/wa-senate/voting.htm#sen">77</a> boxes must be numbered in order of preference.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>If a voter chooses the above-the-line option, their preferences are distributed in the order set out by the relevant group voting tickets (GVT). Votes are thus transferred in whole where candidates in the group are excluded, or in part where a candidate is elected. In the latter case, surplus votes <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/Voting/counting/senate_count.htm">over and above a quota</a> are transferred to candidates further down the ticket.</p>
<p>Booklets setting out the order of preferences in each GVT are available at every polling place on election day. You can also check the GVTs <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/wa-senate/gvt.htm">here</a>.</p>
<h2>When will results be announced?</h2>
<p>Counting of first-preference votes will begin when the polls <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/wa-senate/timetable.htm">close at 6pm on Saturday</a>. This includes ordinary votes lodged at pre-polling centres. The votes are then rechecked over the following days at AEC divisional offices.</p>
<p>Thirteen days are allowed for declaration votes (postal votes and votes cast outside the division) to reach the relevant divisional office. Counting of declaration votes will <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/wa-senate/timetable.htm">begin on April 22</a> after the Easter break. As of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/wa-senate/statistics.htm">April 1</a>, 127,630 postal vote applications had been lodged and 66,330 pre-poll votes had been cast. These numbers will continue to rise before Saturday.</p>
<p>If everything goes according to plan, Western Australia’s six newly elected senators will join their interstate counterparts who were elected last September, as well as the other half of the Senate that did not face election, for the first Senate sitting after <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Senators/Senate_composition">July 1</a>.</p>
<p>From that point, the memory of this extraordinary Western Australian half-Senate election will slowly fade and become but a footnote in the long history of Australian politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25074/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Western Australians will head back to the polls to elect six members of the Senate this Saturday. But what are the issues that caused the original result to be declared void? And what are some of the more…Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaWilliam Bowe, PhD Candidate, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/247262014-03-25T00:02:49Z2014-03-25T00:02:49ZSurvey explores WA electorate’s shifts between Senate votes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44546/original/srv4pcnt-1395639165.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will a number of Western Australians vote differently in the Senate re-vote than how they voted in September?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most Western Australian voters are justifiably annoyed at having to vote again as a result of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-20/high-court-decision-on-wa-senate-election/5272068">losing 1370 Senate votes</a> cast in the September 2013 federal election. </p>
<p>However, for political scientists, the new election provides us with what is likely to be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to chart changes in the behaviour of voters in two polls held within a tight timeframe. </p>
<p>As a result, the University of Western Australia is undertaking a survey of the electorate in the lead-up to the April 5 vote.</p>
<h2>The unknown campaign</h2>
<p>One of the interesting aspects of this election is that no-one is quite sure how the campaign will work. Fundamentally, this is a “second-order election”: government is not being formed. </p>
<p>In fact, the results of this election will not alter the make-up of the Senate to the extent that the government could form or lose a majority in the upper house. The most noticeable change is likely to be in the mix of minor parties, who hold the balance of power in the Senate.</p>
<p>Analysts are not the only ones struggling with the unusual aspects of this election. Usually, Australian federal election campaigns are leader-driven and dominated by senior members from the House of Representatives (the Greens and formerly the Democrats being the exception).</p>
<p>Traditionally, Senate candidates, particularly for the two major parties, aren’t selected for their charisma. And other than cabinet ministers and their shadows, the majority aren’t visible on the hustings during campaigns.</p>
<p>So far, the media and the major parties appear to be treating the election in the manner of a by-election. The first couple of weeks of the campaign have been very low-key. This is in part due to the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-10/troy-buswell-resigns-from-wa-cabinet/5310162">Troy Buswell scandal</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-lives-to-fight-another-day-in-south-australia-24222">South Australian</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-election-aftermath-what-now-for-the-apple-isle-24218">Tasmanian</a> state elections and the disappearance of <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/flight-mh370">Flight MH370</a> dominating the news. </p>
<p>The campaign is expected to heat up in the final two weeks. All the key players have officially launched their campaigns.</p>
<h2>Examining changes in voter behaviour</h2>
<p>Following the announcement the Senate ballots had been lost, chatter around the watercooler led us to think that if Western Australians had to vote again, a number would consider voting differently. Some might be keen to vote below the line on the ballot paper, particularly after the machinations of minor party preference swaps were revealed at the September election.</p>
<p>This led us to wonder about intent versus action. Plenty of people intend to vote below the line, but when they get to the voting booth and see the large list of candidates, it all becomes a bit much. They fall back on the simpler alternative. </p>
<p>At the election in September, <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/SenateUseOfGvtByState-17496.htm">3.83%</a> of Western Australians voted below line, which was just slightly above the national average of 3.51%, but far lower than the 19.87% in the ACT. </p>
<p>Of course, far fewer candidates ran for the ACT’s two Senate seats. There were only <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/SenateCandidates-17496-ACT.htm">27</a> preferences to distribute below the line, as opposed to <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/SenateCandidates-17496-WA.htm">62</a> in Western Australia. The number of candidates running in the April election <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/wa-senate/voting.htm">is 77</a>, which may further deter some people when it comes time to vote.</p>
<p>From an analytical point of view, the AEC will have produced two very comparable datasets for Senate voting in Western Australia once the votes from April 5 are counted. </p>
<p>While a recount was necessary due to the closeness of the first result and to ensure confidence in the robustness of our democracy, the 1370 votes equated to <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/SenateUseOfGvtByState-17496.htm">only 0.105%</a> of the Western Australian 2013 Senate vote. This means we should have a very good idea about any changes in the behaviour of WA voters.</p>
<p>UWA has decided that a survey of the Western Australian electorate would be a useful additional tool in the analysis of this unexpected election.</p>
<h2>Details of the survey</h2>
<p>UWA wished to explore several factors, including: </p>
<ul>
<li>voters’ intention to change their vote and the manner in which they are voting;</li>
<li>the issues that may have led them to consider changing their votes; and</li>
<li>the level of political advertising they noticed during the campaign.</li>
</ul>
<p>We are also interested in voters’ views of both the AEC and the possibility of moving to a system of electronic voting.</p>
<p>A number of the questions replicate those used in the <a href="http://aes.anu.edu.au/">Australian Election Study</a> (AES), which is held after each federal election. The AES team has shared its 2013 results with us, which will allow for a certain level of benchmarking once we have our survey results.</p>
<p>The online survey can be completed in around five minutes. It is anonymous.</p>
<p>If you are eligible to vote in the Senate election on April 5, go <a href="http://wasenatesurvey.csp.uwa.edu.au/">here</a> to fill out the survey. We would be grateful if you could direct other eligible voters to the survey. As an inducement, those who complete the survey have a chance to win a $500 voucher.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24726/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most Western Australian voters are justifiably annoyed at having to vote again as a result of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) losing 1370 Senate votes cast in the September 2013 federal election…Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaDavid Glance, Director of Innovation, Faculty of Arts, Director of Centre for Software Practice, The University of Western AustraliaWilliam Bowe, PhD Candidate, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/246292014-03-23T19:30:33Z2014-03-23T19:30:33ZWA Senate re-vote: polls, issues and the troubled voting system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44422/original/2n7jcqzs-1395357968.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Western Australian voters will head back to the polls next month to re-elect six senators.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Voters in Western Australia will head back to the polls on April 5 to re-elect six federal senators following a Court of Disputed Returns <a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-votes-mean-its-back-to-the-polls-for-western-australia-22648">decision</a> in February.</p>
<p>Ahead of polling day, the University of Western Australia’s Natalie Mast sat down with election analyst and PhD candidate William Bowe (aka “The Poll Bludger”) to discuss how the Senate election process and how the campaign is shaping up. </p>
<p>Among the topics of conversation were the issues WA voters are likely to see arise in this out of the ordinary campaign, the chances of election for major, minor and micro parties, and the future of the Senate voting system.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Natalie Mast: What issues are likely to be a factor in the campaign?</strong></p>
<p>William Bowe: The Liberal Party would like the campaign to be about the carbon tax because, basically, they have very little going for them at this point of the electoral cycle. </p>
<p>They’re at the point of the cycle where they’re in the business of breaking the promises that were inconvenient to them and hoping that people have forgotten about it in two years’ time. So, what they would like done is the reorienting of public attention back to the promises the last government broke. </p>
<p>The Labor Party would like it to be about the record of the Abbott government so far. We’ve seen in opinion polls that it is not highly rated by the public. I guess that the Labor Party would always like an election campaign to be about health and education, and the government’s done some contentious things in terms of the Gonski reforms, and a few political things have been said by various Liberal people about what might be done with means-testing of Medicare and such. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44421/original/z6z9vwg2-1395357903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44421/original/z6z9vwg2-1395357903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44421/original/z6z9vwg2-1395357903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44421/original/z6z9vwg2-1395357903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44421/original/z6z9vwg2-1395357903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44421/original/z6z9vwg2-1395357903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44421/original/z6z9vwg2-1395357903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tony Abbott and the Coalition would like the WA Senate re-run to be fought on Labor’s opposition to the carbon tax repeal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tony McDonough</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM: Have you seen any polling data that’s of use yet? If so, what’s the polling indicating?</strong> </p>
<p>WB: There was a poll a couple of weeks ago, which sort of snuck past the newspapers, from Patterson Market Research. It showed a much, much higher vote for the major parties, and a much, much lower vote correspondingly for the microparties that everyone was talking about after the Senate election result. </p>
<p>However, Senate opinion polling is notoriously wonky. Generally speaking, when Senate polls were conducted, they were piggybacked on top of House of Representatives polls. I think you got an effect where respondents have just answered a question about the House of Representatives, and I think they worry that they’ll look unsophisticated if they provide the same answer to both questions. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM: In terms of support for the Liberal Party, will the Troy Buswell scandal play a part or is that purely a state issue?</strong> </p>
<p>WB: I think it will play an indirect part. I don’t think you’re going to see people going to the polling booth and casting a protest vote against Troy Buswell personally but it does add to the impression that the state government is a bit of a shambles, that people regret the fact that it won the election as clearly as it did, that they don’t think they deserved as big a mandate as they got. </p>
<p>I think there’s going to be a sense at this by-election that we’ve got Liberal governments at federal and state government and that we’re not very happy with either of them. That is likely to exacerbate the classic by-election effect of people wanting to cast a protest vote. And here’s an easy opportunity for people to take a kick at the Liberals because they’re not throwing them out of government and putting Labor in by doing so. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM: Do you think Scott Ludlam’s “viral” speech has done the Greens’ prospects in WA any good, after their vote has gone backwards with each recent federal and state election?</strong> </p>
<p>WB: Yes, I think that he played a very good game there and is doing so more generally at the moment. I suspect that the awareness of him possibly losing his seat has engendered a bit of sympathy for him on the left and that will stand him in good stead. He’ll get more people voting for him who are swinging Labor/Greens voters. </p>
<p>I don’t think it’s going to cause his vote to go through the roof singlehandedly, but I think that it was a very well-judged speech by Ludlam as proved by the fact that it did indeed go viral. I imagine that the Greens’ vote will increase, notwithstanding that we’ve seen it gone down elsewhere. Particularly we’ve just seen it go down in Tasmania, but I think that was due to very locally specific factors. </p>
<p>The Greens vote went down at the 2013 election too. But I don’t think that’s part of a long-term trend; I don’t think we’re going to see the vote continue coming down. I just think they did extremely well in 2010. The circumstances of the 2010 election were ideal for the Greens. They weren’t as good in 2013 and that was the reason their vote came down. I think it’s a mistake to view that as a part of a long-term barrelling down trend. </p>
<p>And I think the Tasmanian election was similar to last year’s federal election in that respect. It’s a different dynamic in Western Australia. I certainly don’t expect their vote to go down further and I think it will be up a little bit. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44420/original/kqr334y8-1395357827.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44420/original/kqr334y8-1395357827.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44420/original/kqr334y8-1395357827.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44420/original/kqr334y8-1395357827.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44420/original/kqr334y8-1395357827.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44420/original/kqr334y8-1395357827.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44420/original/kqr334y8-1395357827.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Will an impassioned speech that went viral online save Greens senator Scott Ludlam?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM: Taking into account their performance in the Tasmanian and South Australian elections, is the Palmer United Party looking like a one-election wonder?</strong> </p>
<p>WB: That remains to be seen. It was interesting that they didn’t do better in Tasmania. But they’ve been playing both sides of the street, particularly with regards to the GST issue. </p>
<p>We’ve had a couple of by-elections in which the PUP didn’t field candidates in Queensland; they made no effort at all in South Australia; but they went very hard in Tasmania for their state election and now the Western Australian Senate. Now, this is all down to the electoral systems. They could theoretically have won lower house seats in Tasmania which normally they wouldn’t be able to do and they could have been in the mix, perhaps, of negotiating a minority government arrangement. </p>
<p>In Western Australia, obviously we’re talking about the federal Senate: this is the big game. So those are the two big elections, which naturally enough they decided were in their interests. Unfortunately for them, it presented them with having to play games on the GST. They are trying to say to Western Australian voters “you’re getting ripped off here because all your GST revenue is going to Tasmania”, when obviously that was a lethal position for them to take in Tasmania, assuming voters were conscious that it was happening. </p>
<p>So it could be that by pursuing the issue – which is absolutely the exact opposite of what he wanted to do in Tasmania – that Clive Palmer recognises he faces a very different electoral environment in Western Australia: one that is very conducive to him. He is campaigning very hard indeed; he did in Tasmania and did disappointingly there. </p>
<p>But I think before you write Palmer off in this campaign, the issue set in Western Australia is a lot more favourable to the PUP than it was in Tasmania. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM: ABC election analyst Antony Green has been quite vocal in his disdain regarding preference deals among the microparties. When the candidates for the WA half-Senate election were announced, he was <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/candidates-in-wa-senate-re-run/story-e6frfku9-1226854980253">quoted as saying</a>: “This will have to be the last time this election system is used, because it has become an international joke.”</strong> </p>
<p><strong>Do you think Australia’s use of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) has become an international joke? And if so, should we be reforming the current version of the STV or moving to a different type of proportional representation?</strong> </p>
<p>WB: Actually, my preferred system – and I think what we’re going to eventually see – would be what they have in New South Wales. It is a STV system, but it’s one in which voters consciously need to direct their preferences. The great scandal, I think, is not STV itself. I think that voters should have as much power to use or not use their vote as they want. </p>
<p>By not using it, I think they need to be given the option for their vote to exhaust. And that’s particularly pertinent in relation to this system we have, where essentially people’s votes get corralled by the group ticket voting system and sent off in directions they would never imagine. That’s where the disgrace lies and New South Wales has done the logical thing about it. </p>
<p>In New South Wales, you do not just number one vote above the line and have your entire vote from beginning to end follow the pattern laid out by the party itself. You have to vote your own way above the line, you can number as many or as few boxes above the line as you like.</p>
<p>In practice, people vote in the Senate by just numbering one box above the line. What that means overwhelmingly is that people’s preferences don’t get distributed outside of the party that they’ve voted for. If you want to do that you can, but you have to actually go to the effort to say, consciously, I want my second preference to go to this party or that party. </p>
<p>That, I think, is the obvious solution. It hasn’t caused any problems in New South Wales. What it means in practice, though, is that very few preferences do get distributed and the final seats go to the parties who come nearest to a quota. You don’t have the system whereby everyone has to get to a quota to get elected because every vote is being counted to its full value because every preference is being counted to the umpteenth degree.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44419/original/8b528cdf-1395357677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44419/original/8b528cdf-1395357677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44419/original/8b528cdf-1395357677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44419/original/8b528cdf-1395357677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44419/original/8b528cdf-1395357677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44419/original/8b528cdf-1395357677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44419/original/8b528cdf-1395357677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Federal Labor leader Bill Shorten and his WA counterpart, Mark McGowan, on the hustings.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tim Clarke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><strong>NM: The Senate was designed as a state’s house, that is to ensure that the views of the people in each state of the federation were given equal weight. Should people living outside of Western Australia, such as the candidates in the Help End Marijuana Prohibition Party or Philip Nitschke from the Voluntary Euthanasia Party be able to run for seats in WA?</strong> </p>
<p>WB: I think it’s fairly obvious that if you want to run for the Senate in a particular state you should be enrolled to vote there and that, in turn, requires that you be a resident there. </p>
<p>So, yes, I think we’ve exposed a big loophole here and one which perhaps has not come up as an issue before because not since 1906 have we had an election – a Senate election – held in one state only on a single day. At every other Senate election, you’ve got the entire range of states and territories to choose to run in. But now we’ve discovered that this sort of thing can happen.</p>
<p>As you say, it’s the states’ house and it is indeed making a joke of that. People from all around Australia are flocking to run in this election just to take advantage of the demonstrated fact that Senate elections are a bit of a lottery. You can win without any popular mandate to speak of so, yes, that’s one of many areas that I think reform needs to be considered.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24629/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Voters in Western Australia will head back to the polls on April 5 to re-elect six federal senators following a Court of Disputed Returns decision in February. Ahead of polling day, the University of Western…Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaWilliam Bowe, PhD Candidate, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/236502014-02-26T22:46:44Z2014-02-26T22:46:44ZLatest Polls Show Confusing Picture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/42435/original/pvn7cxtm-1393301658.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">polls late Feb</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Last week a Nielsen poll gave the Coalition its first poll lead from a reputable pollster since November last year. This week’s Newspoll has given Labor its biggest lead since prior to the 2010 election. The table of pollster results is below. Note that both Morgan and Essential did their fieldwork over two weekends; thus their data would have included both the weekend when Nielsen showed the Coalition ahead, and last weekend when Newspoll gave Labor a large lead.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/42435/original/pvn7cxtm-1393301658.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/42435/original/pvn7cxtm-1393301658.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/42435/original/pvn7cxtm-1393301658.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/42435/original/pvn7cxtm-1393301658.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/42435/original/pvn7cxtm-1393301658.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/42435/original/pvn7cxtm-1393301658.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=163&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/42435/original/pvn7cxtm-1393301658.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=163&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/42435/original/pvn7cxtm-1393301658.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=163&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">polls late Feb.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is not credible to think that there was a 6% swing to Labor in one week. It is far more likely that Nielsen underestimated Labor’s position, and that Newspoll is now overestimating it. While Newspoll has earned its reputation with accurate final pre-election polls, it does exhibit <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/a-field-guide-to-australian-opinion.html">more poll to poll volatility than other polls.</a></p>
<p>The contradictory Nielsen and Newspoll have affected the poll aggregate measures. Kevin Bonham’s aggregate went fron a Labor Two Party Preferred (2PP) of 50.7% the week before Nielsen to 49.7% the week after Nielsen, and is now at 51.0%. The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack had a Labor 2PP of 51.8% before Nielsen, 50.0% after Nielsen, and is now at 50.7%.</p>
<p>In my opinion, for Labor to be considered a favourite for the next Federal election, the party will need to consistently maintain its support at the current Newspoll’s level or better.</p>
<h2>Notes on these Polls</h2>
<ul>
<li><p>Nielsen had Abbott’s net approval rating at -2, down from +1 in November. A royal commission into union corruption was supported by a 67-23 margin, but reducing worker entitlements to make companies more competitive was opposed by a 58-37 margin. 59% say the ABC is politically unbiased, while 31% disagree; Coalition voters are more likely to say that the ABC is biased. Nielsen’s respondent-allocated preferences showed Labor doing 1% better than using the previous election method.</p></li>
<li><p>Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences gave Labor a 50.5-49.5 lead this week, in agreement with the previous election preferences.</p></li>
<li><p>In Essential, the Coalition was given neutral marks for the handling of its core issues such as economic management and asylum seekers. For Labor/Green issues such as industrial relations and climate change, the Coalition was -10 or worse on net scores (good minus poor). On supporting Australian jobs, the Coalition scored -19. Only 13% think the 20% Renewable Energy Target is too high. 42% oppose restricting filesharing, while 38% support it, with young people particularly opposed. In last week’s Essential, voters were opposed to the Abbot Point expansion by a 66-17 margin, including 41% strongly opposed.</p></li>
<li><p>Newspoll had Abbott’s approval rating down 4% to 36% and his disapproval up 7% to 52% for a net approval of -16, down from -5 last fortnight. If Abbott’s approval really has dived like this, the Newspoll voting intentions are no surprise. Shorten’s net approval was -5, down from 0 last fortnight.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>WA Senate Re-Run Election</h2>
<p>Last week the High Court ordered a new election for the WA Senate, after the September election had almost <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-has-happened-in-the-wa-senate-count-19797">1400 missing votes and a very close count</a> at a critical exclusion. At this new election, all six seats will be contested, even though four were clearly elected on the first count, and only two seats were disputed. This is because Senate voting is proportional, and it would be worse had the Court ordered that only two seats be filled. That outcome would have certainly elected a Liberal and Labor candidate, and WA would then have had four Liberals and two Labor in the Senate.</p>
<p>Under both iterations of the original count, there could be only two Labor/Greens, three Liberals and one from either the Palmer United Party or the Sports Party, who would be more likely to support the Liberals on key legislation. The new election thus gives Labor and the Greens an opportunity to win three combined seats, and make life more difficult for the Coalition in the new Senate when it starts sitting in July. Given the deterioration in the Coalition’s national poll position, a 3-3 Left-Right split from WA is the probable outcome.</p>
<p>No election date has been set for this re-run election. The earliest possible date is the 5 April, and the election should be held by late May to give the electoral commission time to declare the winners before July. <strong>Update 28 Feb:</strong> The new WA Senate election has been set for the 5 April.</p>
<h2>Redcliffe By-Election (Qld) Result</h2>
<p>Last Saturday 22 February, Labor won the Queensland state seat of Redcliffe by a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2014/redcliffe/result.htm">57.1-42.9 margin</a>, a 17.2% swing to Labor. The March 2012 Queensland state election was a catastrophe for Labor, and Redcliffe gives them only their eighth seat in state Parliament, out of 89 total. The latest Queensland Galaxy state poll had the Liberal National Party (LNP) ahead by 53-47, a 10% swing to Labor from 2012. By-election swings are not good predictors of general election swings, and the LNP should still be favoured to win the next state election.</p>
<p>Next week I will discuss the upcoming state elections in Tasmania and South Australia, which will both be held on 15 March.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Last week a Nielsen poll gave the Coalition its first poll lead from a reputable pollster since November last year. This week’s Newspoll has given Labor its biggest lead since prior to the 2010 election…Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/198182014-02-18T19:12:07Z2014-02-18T19:12:07ZWhat issues will a WA Senate re-vote be fought on?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34654/original/vkss8hyn-1383801363.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What are the key issues the parties will campaign on in the almost-certain WA Senate re-vote?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It appears certain that Western Australians will vote in fresh Senate elections later this year. Following the initial vote last September and the recount – when 1375 votes were unable to be located – the High Court, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2014/5.html">declared</a> yesterday that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The only relief appropriate is for the election to be declared void.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While reserving its final judgment for Thursday, a new election to elect six senators seems to be an inevitability.</p>
<p>The court’s decision isn’t going to recast the political landscape. And yet it’s back to the polls that Western Australians will likely go. That means new candidates and new campaigns. And more fun – unless you’re feeling election fatigue (Western Australians did have state and local government elections as well as the federal election last year).</p>
<p>So, what will be the key issue areas a re-vote will be fought on?</p>
<h2>The major parties</h2>
<p>The Coalition will urge Western Australian voters to allow the Abbott government to govern. After all, it won a significant majority in the House of Representatives last September.</p>
<p>Prime minister Tony Abbott will generally play better in Western Australia than opposition leader Bill Shorten. They are both from “over east”, so neither really understands WA, but Abbott can run a pro-development line more believably than Shorten.</p>
<p>The latest <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/17/bill-shortens-popularity-slides-in-poll-as-coalition-regains-pre-election-favour">Nielsen poll</a> appears to reflect Shorten’s inability to engage voters outside the party while he tries to rebuild inside the party. He is being outmanoeuvred in public, however much they lionise him inside the party.</p>
<p>Late last year, when a re-run was first mooted, some media outlets <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/wa-poll-re-run-to-target-tax-on-carbon/story-e6frfkp9-1226752427395">suggested</a> that the fresh election will be a referendum on the carbon tax. It is unlikely to be that simple. This is especially so if there is enough evidence to show that the carbon tax is working, which the IMF <a href="http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/539134/20140217/climate-change-direct-action-carbon-tax-repeal.htm#.UwK96LRqPEk">certainly thinks is the case</a>. </p>
<p>But an election re-run is likely to play out better for the conservatives. It is hard to see the Liberals losing or gaining a seat. It is more about the fate of the Palmer United Party (PUP) and the Greens.</p>
<p>Much of the hostility to Labor has been vented in Western Australia, so Coalition strategists shouldn’t assume they can rely on strong anti-Labor sentiments to carry them through. Presenting themselves as the government that has stopped asylum seekers will work well in WA, where arrivals by boat have had a greater impact than elsewhere. </p>
<p>However, the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-compares-secrecy-over-asylum-seekers-to-war-time-20140110-30lyt.html">secrecy</a> around asylum seekers coming by boat is making the public’s reaction to this issue hard to predict.</p>
<h2>State issues</h2>
<p>One problem for the Coalition is that Western Australians know the Abbott government <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-20/federal-government-ignores-calls-from-states-for-increase-to-gst/4970916">won’t do anything</a> to increase the amount of Goods and Services Tax (GST) the state receives. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">WA premier Colin Barnett suffered an annus horribilis in 2013. Will state issues play a role in a WA Senate re-vote?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While it was never directly stated, the view that Labor had something to do with WA’s share of GST revenue was left conveniently – for the Coalition – in the air for much of last September’s federal election. Now it is clear that the Coalition will do nothing for a state government struggling, and failing, to balance its budget.</p>
<p>This is why Labor will want the election to be about the effectiveness of Coalition governments. The ALP campaign will attempt to shift the focus from federal Labor and use WA premier Colin Barnett’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/gst-rebuff-and-credit-downgrade-add-to-barnetts-annus-horribilis-18478">woeful recent performance</a> as evidence that Coalition governments across Australia aren’t up to the challenges of governing.</p>
<p>Abbott will struggle to persuade people to support him because of his record. The federal government has done little so far that will have particularly impressed West Australians. The carbon and mining taxes are not such “hot” topics, so they do not carry the same weight. </p>
<h2>The Greens, PUP and microparties</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2013-brings-a-mixed-result-for-the-greens-17524">Greens</a> can regain ground if they can establish themselves as being necessary to moderate the excesses of the Abbott government, and to generally ensure that the government does not lose sight of the environment in pursuing jobs growth. </p>
<p>It would help, in Western Australia, for the Greens to articulate a conservative environmental position. This is not the state to be anything but conservative.</p>
<p>Incumbent senator Scott Ludlam, who was elected for the Greens in the recount, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-21/greens-senate-petition-rejected/5211302">argued to keep the recount</a> instead of publicly welcoming the challenge to respond to those who have turned away from the Greens. That would have sent the right message to voters.</p>
<p>The Greens are likely to join the Coalition and Labor in trying to make a re-run election about <a href="https://theconversation.com/micro-parties-win-on-the-big-boys-rules-18027">microparties</a> manipulating the voters to get candidates elected who gained very few first preference votes. Expect to see Glenn Druery - the so-called <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-04/preference-whisperer-in-demand-as-fresh-wa-senate-poll-likely/5068428">“preference whisperer”</a> - copping a lot of criticism. </p>
<p>The Greens ought to be careful with the microparties. Support for them expresses discontent with the system, which is also manifested in votes for the Greens. Dismissing other people’s discontent in favour of your discontent won’t win you friends. Besides, the Greens need to think about possibilities for working with any microparty candidates who are elected.</p>
<p>A re-vote solely in Western Australia provides the PUP with a great opportunity. The new party’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-palmer-united-party-came-out-barking-17979">success</a> in September’s election means that the PUP now represents a credible option for those attracted by a conservative approach. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clive Palmer’s Palmer United Party may have its electoral success in the WA Senate repeated in a re-vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Palmer’s very deep pockets will help the PUP to generate a significant profile in traditional and social media. So, the PUP can expect to repeat its (albeit voided) success of winning a Senate seat in WA. There’s always the chance that Palmer will say something to offend Western Australians, but he speaks fluent mining magnate, which is a language that people in the state understand well.</p>
<p>The mainstream media is helping the major parties’ attempts to make microparties appear sinister and manipulative, so we are likely to see people not trusting them with their “above the line” preferences.</p>
<p>The Sports Party, which <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/greens-win-senate-seat-in-wa-recount--taking-it-from-palmers-party-20131102-2wth4.html">won a seat</a> in the disputed recount despite gaining <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/senate/wa/">just 0.23%</a> of the first preference vote, will also struggle.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19818/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It appears certain that Western Australians will vote in fresh Senate elections later this year. Following the initial vote last September and the recount – when 1375 votes were unable to be located…Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics , Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/226482014-02-18T06:11:51Z2014-02-18T06:11:51ZMissing votes mean it’s back to the polls for Western Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41794/original/tmfq63hy-1392701850.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Out, then in, then out again: Greens Senator Scott Ludlam was returned in a recount, but says the court made the 'right call' because voters were disenfranchised when votes went missing. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Although the Court of Disputed Returns has not yet formally declared that Western Australia’s <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/voting/How_to_vote/Voting_Senate.htm">half-Senate election</a> was void, <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2014/5.html">Justice Hayne’s judgment</a> has made it clear that this is the necessary, or as he would call it, the “inevitable” outcome.</p>
<p>Last year, the voting in Western Australia elected three Liberals and one Labor Senate candidate. There were also two disputed Senate places. On the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-21/palmer-calls-for-original-result-to-be-upheld-in-wa-senate-elec/5108042">initial counts</a>, these would have gone to the Palmer United Party and Labor but <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-whose-interest-the-high-court-and-the-wa-senate-vote-22633">on the recount</a> went to the Australian Sports Party and the Greens.</p>
<p>Notoriously, some 1370 <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/2013/wa-senate.htm">ballots went missing</a> so the recount could not be properly completed. The Electoral Commissioner <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2013/11-15.htm">petitioned the Court of Disputed Returns</a> to declare the election void. The various parties, exhibiting more impressive twists, somersaults and backflips than in aerial skiing at Sochi, argued for whichever election outcome suited them best.</p>
<h2>What are the court’s options?</h2>
<p>The Court of Disputed Returns has very limited powers in relation to elections. It can declare that candidates who were returned as elected were not elected. It can declare that other candidates were duly elected.</p>
<p>The court can also declare an election to be absolutely void. There are two conditions for doing so. The court must be satisfied that it was likely that the outcome of the election was affected by an illegal act or official error and that it is just to make such a declaration.</p>
<p>In dealing with a challenge, the court usually has the benefit of being able to assess the ballot papers. The problem in this case was that some were missing. The question then was whether the court could consider the earlier counts, which had taken into account those ballots, in order to reconstruct an outcome.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/">Electoral Act</a> says that if anyone was “prevented from voting”, the court cannot admit evidence of their voting intentions. Some parties argued that the act of voting is complete when you put your ballot in the box. Others said that you could be prevented from voting if your vote wasn’t counted.</p>
<h2>What did Justice Hayne decide?</h2>
<p>Justice Hayne held that people were prevented from voting because their votes were lost and not counted. He considered that the Constitution requires that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the lawful expression of every voter’s choice is taken into account in determining who has been chosen.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The consequence was that he could not go back to the evidence of the earlier counts to determine the intention of these voters. It was not possible to mix and match from the various election counts to come up with a composite result. Justice Hayne noted that the Act did not permit the making of “patchwork” results.</p>
<p>As to whether the election outcome was likely to have been affected by the loss of the ballot papers, without admissible evidence of voting intentions in the lost ballot papers Justice Hayne held that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the conclusion that the result which was declared was likely affected by the loss of the ballot papers is inevitable.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This was because the critical margin of votes involved was 14, 12 or even just 1, depending upon which counts were used. Even though the evidence of earlier counts could not be admitted, Justice Hayne concluded that the margin was so small that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… it is more probable than not that the loss of the ballot papers affected the result of the election which was declared.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Justice Hayne ended by stating that the court must find that Wayne Dropulich (Australian Sports Party) and Senator Scott Ludlam (Greens) “were not duly elected”. He also found that the court “cannot declare who was duly elected”. He concluded by stating that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The only relief appropriate is for the election to be declared void.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Despite saying that, he did not actually declare the election void. Instead, he required the parties to come back before the court for “argument about any remaining issue” on February 20. Perhaps this was to ensure all parties had natural justice in being able to make submissions on the orders.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the court is very constrained in the orders that it can give. There does not appear to be any possibility other than an order that the election was void. If so, the Electoral Act requires that a new election be held.</p>
<p>It would then be up to the Commonwealth to nominate the date and the Governor of Western Australia to issue the writs for the half-Senate election. This is likely to happen in late April, after Easter, in order to ensure that a full Senate is available when it first sits after July 1.</p>
<h2>What does this case teach us?</h2>
<p>There are many lessons that one can learn from this debacle, including the importance of maintaining ballot papers safely. But the most important one for the public is that every single vote counts. </p>
<p>It was the preferences given to minor parties that proved crucial in the 2013 WA half-Senate election. In the end, there was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-08/wa-senate-result-came-down-to-just-one-vote/5080162">possibly only one vote in it</a>, giving every single voter in the state the power to change the outcome and determine the balance of power in the Senate.</p>
<p>While many may not be thrilled about heading off to the polls again, this case shows that there is real power in the pencil marks that voters make on their ballots. They should exercise that power thoughtfully and wisely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22648/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Twomey receives funding from the ARC and occasionally does consultancy work for governments and inter-governmental bodies.</span></em></p>Although the Court of Disputed Returns has not yet formally declared that Western Australia’s half-Senate election was void, Justice Hayne’s judgment has made it clear that this is the necessary, or as…Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/226332014-01-30T23:56:43Z2014-01-30T23:56:43ZIn whose interest? The High Court and the WA Senate vote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40248/original/nxdp5r2n-1391124500.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A judgment on whether voters in Western Australia will return to the polls to re-elect their senators is due on Monday. What's the legal background to it all?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week, a lone High Court judge <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-29/court-of-disputed-returns-to-rule-on-wa-senate/5222454">faced</a> a table of 13 barristers to begin resolving the Western Australian Senate election <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-senate-election-looms-large-for-wa-voters-19757">quandary</a>. The hearing took two days and a judgment is <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/first-wa-senate-count-should-stand-alp/story-fn3dxiwe-1226814027903">likely sooner or later</a> in February.</p>
<p>There are two realistic outcomes. One is that the election will soon be declared void. The other is that the case will continue, with further legal argument and the parties scrapping over disputed ballots in the coming weeks or months. That could end in a fresh election still being required, or with the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-21/palmer-calls-for-original-result-to-be-upheld-in-wa-senate-elec/5108042">original result</a> of three Liberal, two Labor and one Palmer United Party (PUP) senators reinstated.</p>
<p>The result in WA is in doubt because of a combination of two problems. One was the flap of a butterfly’s wings; the other an elephant’s tread. Each was a matter of fate, not skullduggery. But together they are likely to be fatal to the election.</p>
<h2>The butterfly effect</h2>
<p>The butterfly effect was how the votes panned out. At the key point in the exclusion of microparty candidates, barely a dozen votes out of 1.3 million made the difference to the final two seats. In the original count, a PUP candidate and a second Labor senator were elected.</p>
<p>Given the butterfly effect, the Electoral Commissioner agreed to the Greens’ request for a recount. In that recount, over 3900 votes were reallocated. That is a natural part of the process of carefully re-scrutinising paper ballots. </p>
<p>But the recount miscarried when <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/2013/wa-senate.htm">over 1300 votes</a> from outlying areas were lost, probably in transit. If we factored in the evidence from the original but untested count of the missing votes, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-08/wa-senate-result-came-down-to-just-one-vote/5080162">only one vote</a> will make the difference in the fork in the road, in favour of Labor and the PUP. The incomplete recount, however, elected senators from the Greens and the Australian Sports Party. Alongside this Gordian knot sit several hundred disputed ballots from the recount.</p>
<p>Off then to the High Court. Sorely embarrassed, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-15/aec-election/5095164">hurried to petition</a> the Court of Disputed Returns. This rarely used mechanism dates to the 1860s in England and Australia. Before that, parliamentary committees decided election disputes. The court can confirm or overturn an election, and then declare someone else elected or require a fresh election.</p>
<h2>The parties’ arguments</h2>
<p>The AEC argues that a fresh election must be held, a result it wants to be reached cleanly and soon, without further hearings. It says that the purpose of a recount or a court hearing is to scrutinise and rule on all potentially disputed ballots. With 1300 votes missing that cannot occur. </p>
<p>The AEC argues that the lost ballots mean those electors were “prevented from voting”, in the sense of having their vote treated the same as the others (counted, then recounted and scrutinised fully).</p>
<p>Only <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-21/greens-senate-petition-rejected/5211302">the Greens</a> agree with that line of reasoning. To their credit, the Greens are not trying to argue that they should keep their seat regardless of the uncertainty. The Sports Party, incredibly, is arguing that it and the Greens should keep their seats even though they “won” them on a recount with a 1300 vote hole in it.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party is keenest to avoid a re-election. With the Abbott government <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-takes-clear-poll-lead-21559">polling poorly</a>, this is understandable. The Liberals feel it is unfair that their three clearly elected senators should have to stand for re-election. They argue that the 1300 electors were not “prevented from voting”. They cast their ballots and there is evidence of their intention from the original tally.</p>
<p>Both Labor and the PUP argue that the original result should be reinstated in their favour. Those parties also want the court to rule afresh on several hundred disputed ballots, some of which they hope to end up on their side of the butterfly’s wings. If not, their seats are won with a bare one-vote fork in the path. Labor is also sanguine with a fresh election.</p>
<h2>The case for a fresh election</h2>
<p>So, can the court unscramble this egg? A statistician may argue that it can cut the 1300 votes from the original count, paste that tally into the recount, then rule on the disputed ballots. This may take many weeks and it may lead to a result on a thread, but it is a possible salvage job.</p>
<p>As a matter of pragmatics and principle, the right decision is a fresh election.</p>
<p>The pragmatics are mixed. A fresh election is costly: according to <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/taxpayers-would-foot-11m-cost-of-new-senate-election-in-western-australia/story-e6frfkp9-1226751584623">one estimate</a>, a fresh election has the potential to cost upwards of $A11 million.</p>
<p>And in the hoopla of a new election, the ballot will be flooded by microparties and even independents from interstate. But if a final count is patched together, it will have seesawed across the margin of error, with no way to know if close scrutiny of the lost votes would have made a difference.</p>
<p>At the bar table in this case are five self-interested political parties, plus the AEC. The AEC has no interest in the outcome. It has already given a big <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-04/wa-set-to-head-back-to-polls-in-six-senate-by-elections/5066718">public “mea culpa”</a>. If anything, it should prefer to avoid the cost and ignominy of having to re-run the election.</p>
<p>The public interest is simple: given the mathematical doubt and the irretrievable public distrust in this particular election, the people of WA ought vote afresh.</p>
<p>Beyond that, this is Australia’s <a href="https://www.ecri.org/40years/Pages/Voting_Machine_Testing.aspx">“hanging chad”</a> moment. Calls will be made for everything from computerised voting to eliminating microparties and preference deals. </p>
<p>Close elections are an occasional fact of life; butterfly moments are unavoidable. There is no perfect system in an event as complex as an election in a country as big as Australia. Disputes and human error can be minimised but not wished away.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22633/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Orr has received Australian Research Council funding regarding the regulation of political parties.</span></em></p>This week, a lone High Court judge faced a table of 13 barristers to begin resolving the Western Australian Senate election quandary. The hearing took two days and a judgment is likely sooner or later…Graeme Orr, Professor of Law, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/213062013-12-10T03:30:59Z2013-12-10T03:30:59ZWA Senate ballot farce: fix the date, fix the problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37278/original/gzsfgp4p-1386631423.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are fixed term elections the answer to the AEC's problems, as identified in the report into the handling of the ballot papers in Western Australia?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The release of Mick Keelty’s <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/Reports_On_Federal_Electoral_Events/2013/files/inquiry-into-the-2013-wa-senate-election.pdf">report</a> on the missing Western Australian Senate <a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-ballots-might-lead-to-fresh-wa-senate-poll-19736">ballot papers</a> from the 2013 federal election gives us an unusually in-depth look at how the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) handles and counts votes. </p>
<p>Unfortunately for the AEC, the former top cop’s findings aren’t pretty. Keelty identified a string of issues in how ballot papers from that state were collated, transported, labelled and secured. He found that AEC policies were either unclear or not adhered to at key points during the collection and count.</p>
<p>Because of this, Keelty ultimately ruled that it was impossible to say whether the 1375 missing ballots were deliberately removed, lost in transit or mistaken for rubbish and simply thrown away. This finding should rightly concern all Australian voters.</p>
<h2>The Keelty report</h2>
<p>The Keelty report offers 32 recommendations for the AEC to tighten its ballot management processes. Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/aec-commissioner-rules-out-resignation-over-missing-ballots/5143482">already indicated</a> his agency will be accepting these in full. In the wider community, the loss of these ballot papers has sparked renewed demand for the introduction of electronic voting, as this is – <a href="http://theconversation.com/time-to-kill-paper-ballots-first-lets-look-at-the-alternatives-19767">perhaps mistakenly</a> – seen as more secure and reliable. </p>
<p>But for my money, this whole event highlights something much more problematic about the way Australia’s electoral system is structured: that our floating election dates gives the electoral authorities so little time to organise one of the country’s largest and most complex logistical exercises. </p>
<p>As the AEC itself <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/Federal_Elections/2013/e2013-facts.htm">points out</a>, running a federal election means hiring, training and mobilising around 80,000 temporary staff to run more than 9000 polling booths in every far-flung corner of Australia. The AEC has to print and distribute 43 million ballot papers and accompanying information on how to vote in 27 different languages, and it has to do much of this work within the 33 or so days after an election is formally called. </p>
<p>In 2013, things were complicated even further by the fact that the election date was originally set for September 14 and then brought forward a week by Kevin Rudd because it suited his party’s political strategising. In these circumstances, it is hardly surprising that Keelty found an atmosphere of confusion and corner-cutting within the WA operation. What is actually astounding is how well the AEC pulls it off most of the time.</p>
<p>So, if we’re serious about reforming the electoral system to ensure its integrity into the future, the conversation we really should be having is about moving to fixed election dates.</p>
<h2>Why fix the date?</h2>
<p>As with so many other aspects of our federal electoral system, Australia is unusual in combining short parliamentary terms with floating election dates. Many of the major parliamentary democracies and comparable Westminster systems have switched to four or five-year fixed terms, including the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and much of continental Europe. </p>
<p>Australia’s states and territories have also been progressively moving in this direction. Only Queensland and Tasmania still allow the governing party to pick the election date. </p>
<p>Fixing parliamentary terms — and therefore election dates — is seen to have a number of <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/public-policy/UCL_expertise/Constitution_Unit/150.pdf">important benefits</a>. </p>
<p>Firstly, it removes the advantage that incumbent parties gain by being able to set the election date at a politically beneficial moment. Having longer fixed terms is also thought to encourage less short-term thinking amongst politicians as it greatly reduces the chance of snap elections.</p>
<p>Finally, and most importantly for electoral integrity, fixed terms give the electoral authorities more certainty about when an election will be held so that they can put in place rigorous processes for this. The logistics can be worked out well in advance: temporary staff can be hired to work on a specific date and fully trained ahead of this; appropriate counting facilities can be scoped and secured. </p>
<p>These are all areas where the Western Australian operation reportedly fell through. And it is only going to become harder to get these things right as Australia’s population continues to grow and spread out.</p>
<p>Introducing fixed terms is also probably the only way we will ever see the widespread introduction of electronic voting in Australia. The logistics of sourcing, installing, testing and operating more high-tech voting systems are simply too complex to manage with a floating election timetable as short as ours.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37279/original/xhs33b2j-1386631607.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37279/original/xhs33b2j-1386631607.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37279/original/xhs33b2j-1386631607.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37279/original/xhs33b2j-1386631607.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37279/original/xhs33b2j-1386631607.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37279/original/xhs33b2j-1386631607.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37279/original/xhs33b2j-1386631607.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For the AEC, running a federal election means hiring, training and mobilising around 80,000 temporary staff to run more than 9000 polling booths in every far-flung corner of Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What are the obstacles?</h2>
<p>There are two big obstacles apparently standing in the way of a transition to fixed terms in Australia. </p>
<p>Firstly, it is generally assumed that Australians would have to vote in favour of this change at a federal referendum. With just eight of the 44 referenda since federation succeeding, the odds of this seem pretty slim. </p>
<p>But when Canada moved to fixed terms in 2006, that country avoided a constitutional conflict by ensuring that the governor-general’s ability to dissolve parliament remained unchanged. The amended <a href="http://laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/E-2.01/page-16.html#h-25">Canada Elections Act</a> simply states that elections are to be held on the third Monday in October every four years unless the governor-general says otherwise, effectively introducing fixed terms without the need for a referendum. </p>
<p>A similar approach seems feasible in Australia, given the fairly broad wording of <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/%7E/media/AC79BBA0B87A4906A6D71ACCEEF10535.ashx">Part 1, Section 5</a> of our own Constitution.</p>
<p>There is also a question about what would happen to the Senate if the House of Representatives moved to fixed four-year terms. The Parliamentary Library has taken a <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0001/01RP04">good look</a> at different ways to manage this and the pros and cons of each, but longer Senate terms might simply be a price we have to pay to maintain the overall integrity of our electoral system. </p>
<p>There is no question that the AEC has some work to do in fixing the problems Keelty’s report identifies and rebuilding trust with the Australian public. But if we want the AEC to keep delivering reliable and rigorous election results, it’s probably time to give it the best sporting chance to do so by moving to fixed election dates. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/21306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Rayner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The release of Mick Keelty’s report on the missing Western Australian Senate ballot papers from the 2013 federal election gives us an unusually in-depth look at how the Australian Electoral Commission…Jennifer Rayner, Doctoral Candidate, Australian Politics, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/197972013-11-04T05:36:41Z2013-11-04T05:36:41ZWhat has Happened in the WA Senate Count?<p>In Western Australia, three Liberals and one Labor candidate are certain of election. The <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/10/wa-senate-squeaker.html">initial results showed</a> that the last two seats were being won by a second Labor candidate, and Palmer United Party (PUP). However, this was the result of a 14-vote difference between the Shooters & Fishers and the Australian Christians. If the Shooters are ahead of the Christians at the point where one of these two parties is excluded, the last two seats go to PUP and Labor, but if the Christians are ahead, these last two seats go to the Sports party and the Greens. On the initial results, the Shooters led the Christians by 14 votes at this point, leading to the election of PUP and Labor.</p>
<p>A request for a recount was initially denied, but this decision was reversed on appeal to the Electoral Commissioner. However, last Thursday the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced that <a href="http://aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2013/e10-31.htm">1,375 votes had gone missing</a>, and could not be found. 1,255 of these votes were initially recorded as above the line ticket votes, but no party breakdown has been given.</p>
<p>On Saturday, the AEC carried out a new distribution of preferences in which the <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/11/02/courting-trouble/">Christians beat the Shooters by 12 votes</a>, but this new distribution <strong>does not</strong> include any of the 1,375 missing votes. Due to this new distribution, the Greens and Sports party are elected instead of Labor and PUP. <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/11/whats-going-on-with-the-wa-senate-counct.html">Antony Green</a> says that the AEC cannot legally use the original count for the missing votes, together with the recounted votes for the rest of WA; they have to use only the recounted votes.</p>
<p>The missing votes come from four booths in the electorates of Forrest and Pearce, but only some of the votes in the four affected booths are missing. As a result, it is difficult to calculate exactly how the Christians vs Shooters race has been affected by the missing votes. The <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/11/02/courting-trouble/">Poll Bludger</a> cites Ben Raue at the Tallyroom, and an anonymous poster on Truth Seeker’s Senate results blog. Ben Raue thinks the Shooters lost a net fifteen votes from the missing votes, and the anonymous poster thinks they lost thirteen net votes. If these posters are right, the Shooters would still lead the Christians by 1-3 votes once the missing votes are included. In this situation, a tie would see the Shooters eliminated on a countback.</p>
<p>Clearly, the results without these 1,375 votes are flawed, and will be challenged in the High Court, acting as the Court of Disputed Returns. The Court will not allow the current flawed results to stand. There are two options for the High Court. First, they can declare this election to be void; in this case a completely new Senate election would need to be held in WA. Second, the High Court could direct the AEC to include the missing votes as first counted. The Court could also issue its own rulings on challenged votes, meaning that the 1-3 vote margin in favour of the Shooters could be changed. Probably at least a 5-vote margin either way would be necessary for the Court to conclude that the Shooters had beaten the Christians, or vice versa, given that errors may have also affected the missing votes that now cannot be checked.</p>
<p>Since Senators elected at this year’s election will not take their place until July 2014, there is time to hold another election. If the Court does decide that another election is necessary, it will almost certainly be held under the same rules as applied at this election, with six seats to be contested. It is possible that the balance of power in the Senate could be changed by such an election.</p>
<h2>Fairfax Recount Concluded</h2>
<p><a href="http://aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2013/e10-31a.htm">Clive Palmer won the seat of Fairfax</a> by just 53 votes last Thursday, and will now take his seat in the House of Representatives. The Liberals could challenge Palmer’s victory in court, but this would undoubtedly antagonise Palmer, and the margin is probably too high to be overturned. This means that the final seat result for the House is: Coalition 90, Labor 55, Independents 2, Greens 1, PUP 1 and Katter Party 1.</p>
<p>When final two party figures are published, I will write a concluding article on the election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19797/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In Western Australia, three Liberals and one Labor candidate are certain of election. The initial results showed that the last two seats were being won by a second Labor candidate, and Palmer United Party…Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/197672013-11-04T04:03:10Z2013-11-04T04:03:10ZTime to kill paper ballots? First, let’s look at the alternatives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34339/original/knfhx7wc-1383537197.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Before we pulp the paper ballots, we should consider whether the other options are worth the trouble</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian Electoral Commission’s (AEC) loss of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2013/e10-31.htm">1,375 ballot papers for the West Australian Senate count</a> was an unfortunate failure from an agency that already faced growing public pressure to do away with paper and pencil voting. </p>
<p>Even before the ballots disappeared, newly minted MP Clive Palmer was <a href="http://www.brw.com.au/p/leadership/vanishing_votes_clive_palmer_does_CQQX0cXHzwHx1Ymhpx3IxJ">loudly calling</a> for the introduction of US-style electronic voting machines. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/voting/ivote">an experiment with internet voting</a> for people with disabilities in New South Wales in 2011 caused many to question why we all can’t vote from home. </p>
<p>But before we pulp the paper ballots, it’s worth considering what — if anything — is actually wrong with the system as it stands, as well as what the pros and cons of the alternatives may be.</p>
<h2>How are votes currently counted?</h2>
<p>Australia’s current procedures for recording and counting votes have essentially remained unchanged since federation. Voters are given a piece of paper and a pencil with which to record their voting preference, and the completed ballot papers are then placed in a sealed box.</p>
<p>At the close of the polls, those boxes are opened and an initial count is conducted by hand on-site at each polling booth. The AEC employs thousands of returning officers to staff each booth and manage this initial count; these officers then phone the results into AEC headquarters so they can be plugged into the commission’s central database. That’s how we get the “provisional results” that are broadcast on election night.</p>
<p>After election day, the ballot papers from individual booths are transported to a central location in each state so that a second, more formal, count can be carried out. This involves entering the preferences for each individual ballot into a computer, so a definitive distribution of preferences can be calculated electronically. </p>
<p>This counting process means that ballots are processed twice, by at least two different sets of people and in two different locations. This ensures there is a high degree of scrutiny and cross-checking. But it also creates a small risk that ballots will be lost, damaged or otherwise tampered with during the counting process.</p>
<h2>Options for reform</h2>
<p>There are a range of steps that could be taken to reduce these risks. To give just one example of an approach which was trialled in Belgium, ballot papers could be scanned on-site at polling booths using optical character recognition scanning. The electronic copy would then be transmitted to the central counting facility rather than the paper ballot. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34320/original/yb2ym3hk-1383530700.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34320/original/yb2ym3hk-1383530700.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=868&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34320/original/yb2ym3hk-1383530700.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=868&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34320/original/yb2ym3hk-1383530700.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=868&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34320/original/yb2ym3hk-1383530700.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1090&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34320/original/yb2ym3hk-1383530700.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1090&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34320/original/yb2ym3hk-1383530700.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1090&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voting in Australia hasn’t changed much since federation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">FLICKR/Migration Museum</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, this would mean dispatching scanners to the 7,697-odd polling booths around Australia. Every booth would also need sufficient, secure and reliable internet connectivity to transmit the scanned documents back to AEC headquarters - making this option somewhat impractical. </p>
<p>Of course, in this tech-obsessed age there are many who would like to see a move towards either electronic or internet voting regardless of the real necessity for this. But these types of voting pose their own challenges and concerns. This may explain why <a href="http://www.regjeringen.no/upload/KRD/Prosjekter/e-valg/evaluering/Topic6_Assessment.pdf">only 11 countries</a> use electronic voting for major state or national elections. And just one country — Estonia — has successfully implemented internet voting. </p>
<h2>Electronic voting</h2>
<p>There are a range of different electronic voting machines on the market, each of which let voters push a button, pull a lever or tap a touch screen to register their voting choice. Votes are either recorded directly within the machine, or printed as a barcode which is then placed in a high-tech ballot box which “reads” and <a href="http://www.e-voting.cc/wp-content/plugins/download-monitor/download.php?id=217">logs the vote data</a> from the printed ballot. </p>
<p>While the act of voting itself might be more futuristic, the process for transferring the recorded votes from individual machines to a central database is usually anything but.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34324/original/ywbrcf4t-1383532452.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34324/original/ywbrcf4t-1383532452.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=860&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34324/original/ywbrcf4t-1383532452.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=860&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34324/original/ywbrcf4t-1383532452.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=860&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34324/original/ywbrcf4t-1383532452.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1081&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34324/original/ywbrcf4t-1383532452.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1081&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34324/original/ywbrcf4t-1383532452.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1081&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">South Korea has trialled electronic voting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Yonhap News</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In some cases, the machines themselves must be physically transported so that they can be plugged into a central mainframe, while in other cases they download the vote data to a CD or USB so that this can be sent to the central counting facility. </p>
<p>So it’s not just a simple matter of hitting “upload” and having all the individual booth data materialise at the AEC’s headquarters. Either the counting machines themselves or a copy of the data must still be transferred, and this raises similar concerns about data being lost, damaged or interfered with. </p>
<p>What’s more, the technical nature of the machines means they can either break down, leading to long queues at polling booths, or develop bugs and glitches, which can affect the <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-10/23/e-voting-on-the-decline">accurate recording of votes</a>.</p>
<h2>Internet voting</h2>
<p>Internet voting avoids many of these problems, as voters can simply log on to a secure site and cast their vote. But there are two huge question marks hanging over this process: how do we ensure that the person casting the vote is actually who they say they are, and how do we ensure the site is not hacked or tampered with? </p>
<p>Estonia is the only country to have so far answered the first question. All Estonian citizens are issued with a national ID card which includes a smart chip recording their identity details. This has been used to verify voters for online voting at <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1499">national elections since 2007</a>. </p>
<p>Since the Australia Card was howled down in the 1980s, Australian governments have had no success in convincing us we should also carry national IDs. So it’s hard to see that approach catching on here - even if it did mean we could all vote without having to put on pants. </p>
<p>The issue of cyber security is more challenging, and <a href="https://www.verifiedvoting.org/report-on-the-estonian-internet-voting-system-2/">experts suggest</a> that the Estonian authorities have not comprehensively addressed this. Given recent revelations about the extent of international data snooping and penetration, is it really so hard to imagine an online group such as Anonymous choosing to disrupt the electoral process for kicks? </p>
<p>Or what about a foreign power manipulating the vote to ensure the party most sympathetic to their own interests gets elected? </p>
<p>These are serious concerns, and until we have real solutions to them (or decide that we’re just willing to take the risk) internet voting isn’t likely to play a significant role in future national elections.</p>
<h2>What’s the verdict?</h2>
<p>The loss of the West Australian ballots is a serious breach of electoral integrity, and one that must be thoroughly investigated to identify what went wrong. </p>
<p>But amidst all the party-driven hysteria, it’s important to remember that no system is entirely fail safe, and the risks posed by electronic or internet voting are potentially far more serious than this isolated incident. </p>
<p>Our paper balloting system has delivered good electoral outcomes for more than 100 years, and remains the best option available for running efficient, accessible and reliable national elections. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19767/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Rayner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Australian Electoral Commission’s (AEC) loss of 1,375 ballot papers for the West Australian Senate count was an unfortunate failure from an agency that already faced growing public pressure to do away…Jennifer Rayner, Doctoral Candidate, Australian Politics, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/197572013-11-04T00:08:31Z2013-11-04T00:08:31ZA new Senate election looms large for WA voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34299/original/ry6hdb6b-1383519912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Greens senator Scott Ludlam has been successful in the full recount of the WA Senate vote. But the fight over who goes to Canberra looks like continuing for some time yet.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will officially declare the result of the full recount of the Western Australian Senate vote today. Scott Ludlam from the Australian Greens and Wayne Dropulich from the Australian Sports Party have <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2013/e11-02.htm">been triumphant</a> in the recount, while the ALP’s Louise Pratt and Zhenya Wang from the Palmer United Party (PUP) had their election voided.</p>
<p>The AEC’s declaration of the result from the recount is by no means the end of this saga. Over 1300 votes <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wa-senate-recount-in-turmoil-as-1375-votes-go-missing-20131031-2wjub.html">went missing</a> during the recount and could not be located, so it now seems inevitable that the recount will be the subject of an appeal to the High Court, which is empowered to hear any such petition in its capacity as the Court of Disputed Returns.</p>
<p>While the victors were gratified by the outcome, the vanquished were understandably frustrated. Pratt said that she was <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-to-launch-challenge-to-western-australia-senate-recount-20131102-2wtjj.html#ixzz2jTjW1wxJPratt">“deeply disappointed”</a> by developments, while PUP founder Clive Palmer <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-02/aec-announces-wa-senate-results-amid-missing-ballots/5065974">openly rejected</a> the result, arguing that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The original count should stand, as it is the only count where we’ve had a full count of all votes.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The procedure for appealing an election result is located in the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/">Commonwealth Electoral Act</a>. An appeal can be lodged if there are concerns of an illegal act or practice having interfered with the election, questions about the eligibility of a candidate, or a belief that there has been a failure of compliance in relation to the act. An appeal can be brought by any of the candidates, any elector qualified to vote at that election or the AEC.</p>
<p>In this case, the basis of the appeal will likely centre on concerns about the integrity and reliability of the recount. The fact that over 1300 ballot papers were omitted from the recount will make this a fairly easy case for litigants to prosecute.</p>
<p>It is difficult to predict how the Court of Disputed Returns might find in this matter because we do not have a similar case against which to compare this situation. Appeals are not especially frequent, most are brought against divisional results in the House of Representatives and many of the petitions are ultimately dismissed. But the particular circumstances of this case increase the prospects of the Court ordering a new half senate election.</p>
<p>If it a fresh election is held, it will not be without challenges. </p>
<p>It will be important that a new election is held in a timely manner. There will be a myriad of legal and practical matters that will have to be attended to before the Senate by-election can proceed, all of which will take some time to work through. ABC electoral expert Antony Green <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/11/whats-going-on-with-the-wa-senate-counct.html#more">believes</a> that in order for incoming WA senators to take their seats by July 1, 2014 (when the new Senate will be sworn in), the latest possible date for a new election is late May 2014.</p>
<p>There is, of course, a fairly hefty price tag attached with holding a new election. According to <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/taxpayers-would-foot-11m-cost-of-new-senate-election-in-western-australia/story-e6frfkp9-1226751584623">one estimate</a>, a fresh election has the potential to cost upwards of $A11 million.</p>
<p>A new Senate election is also very likely to produce a much lower turnout. Most voters resent being recalled to the ballot box for a by-election and many respond by staying away on polling day.</p>
<p>The problem of electoral fatigue is likely to be particularly heightened because WA voters have faced <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sg2013">state</a> and <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/local/e885f29a-80e4-43e0-9135-5478b128abb5">local</a> government elections this year, in addition to the federal poll.</p>
<p>To the extent that turnout at House of Representatives by-elections is any kind of reliable gauge, then expect the level of participation to plummet to around 78-80% of eligible voters on the roll, well short of the 90-95% for standard elections. A lower-than-usual turnout can provide ready ammunition for disaffected candidates to cast aspersions on the legitimacy of the outcome.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34300/original/8bqnyyfr-1383521765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34300/original/8bqnyyfr-1383521765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34300/original/8bqnyyfr-1383521765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34300/original/8bqnyyfr-1383521765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34300/original/8bqnyyfr-1383521765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34300/original/8bqnyyfr-1383521765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34300/original/8bqnyyfr-1383521765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voters in Western Australia could be forced back to the polls if a challenge to the High Court over the disputed Senate recount is successful.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is no guarantee that a fresh Senate election will not produce a similarly tight election outcome. It is possible that the publicity garnered by <a href="https://theconversation.com/micro-parties-win-on-the-big-boys-rules-18027">microparties at the 2013 election</a> might embolden even more candidates and groups to nominate for the Senate. If this were to occur, and similarly convoluted preference agreements were negotiated between parties, then Western Australia may very well find itself in much the same position as it did at the conclusion of the first count.</p>
<p>There is no doubt that the revelation of the missing ballot papers has brought unfavourable attention to the AEC. Some have suggested that the AEC is guilty of gross incompetence. Clive Palmer, in a fit of pique, went much further and accused the AEC of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/31/wa-senate-recount-investigation-launched-after-1375-ballots-lost">“trying to rig the election”</a> to prevent PUP from having the balance of power in the Senate.</p>
<p>The idea that the AEC is somehow corrupt or profoundly incompetent is a stretch. If the AEC was really afflicted by endemic corruption than it would have been most unlikely that this matter would have been exposed publicly. The AEC was, after all, very quick to admit to its mistake in losing the votes, and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/31/wa-senate-recount-investigation-launched-after-1375-ballots-lost">called in</a> former federal police chief commission Mick Keelty to investigate.</p>
<p>While Keelty’s investigation will most likely fail to uncover the whereabouts of the missing ballot papers, it will serve as a reminder that Australian elections are subject to high levels of scrutiny and rigour.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will officially declare the result of the full recount of the Western Australian Senate vote today. Scott Ludlam from the Australian Greens and Wayne Dropulich…Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.