tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/wales-elections-25064/articlesWales elections – The Conversation2016-05-31T10:55:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/595422016-05-31T10:55:32Z2016-05-31T10:55:32ZHow hyperlocal journalists plug the democratic gap in regional elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124151/original/image-20160526-22038-1vyzdcq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Without community journalists, many constituents would be uninformed about local issues.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre for Community Journalism, Cardiff University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Millions of people voted in the UK’s local and national elections in May, but who can say how well informed they were about local issues? Some <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/london-mayoral-election-results-what-time-will-the-votes-be-coun/">45% of London voters</a> turned out for the mayoral elections, 55.6% voted in the Scottish Parliament election and 45% at the Welsh Assembly elections, but it is near impossible to ascertain what they knew about their nominee’s policies.</p>
<p>The UK’s local <a href="https://theconversation.com/depleted-local-media-threatens-ability-to-hold-those-in-power-to-account-58322">news landscape has been decimated</a> due to mergers, cuts and closures. This has amounted to a steady and widespread withdrawal of professional journalism from our cities, towns and villages – and a resulting drop in information. But all is not lost just yet: at the same time a new generation of “hyperlocal” or community news outlets have emerged.</p>
<p>Often run by volunteers or a small team of professional journalists, these local news websites, papers and magazines are dedicated to the communities in which they are based. The hyperlocal sector is financially precarious, however – a survey I conducted which was published in 2014 indicated that only a <a href="https://www.communityjournalism.co.uk/research/the-state-of-uk-hyperlocal-community-news-a-survey/">third of community news publishers</a> make any money and those who do are usually making modest amounts. <a href="https://www.journalism.co.uk/news/success-with-mixed-funding-models-brings-optimism-to-community-websites/s2/a604846/">Funded by a mixture</a> of donations, advertising, membership fees, crowdfunding and grants – to survive, this new media sector relies heavily on the dedication of its readers to survive. In order to continue, the hyperlocal outlets need support from their communities from the get-go, drawing local people – and businesses – in not only as consumers but as funders and champions of the cause.</p>
<h2>Grassroots engagement</h2>
<p>Community journalists have a close connection with the areas they cover, routinely reporting on local events and being more likely to quote ordinary people than <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/21670811.2014.965932">established newspaper publishers</a>. Many also cover local politics very closely, often reporting on council meetings and supplying electoral information at a grassroots level.</p>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre for Community Journalism, Cardiff University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The strong relationships that local outlets build with communities often make for very engaged audiences. The producers of Welsh town website Wrexham.com, for example, <a href="http://www.wrexham.com/news/leader-circulation-drops-a-further-15-with-leaderlive-website-down-4-108573.html">recently wrote about differences</a> between their output and that of the established online news outlet in the area, the Trinity Mirror-owned Wrexham Leader newspaper and accompanying website <a href="http://www.leaderlive.co.uk/">Leader Live</a>. Wrexham.com, which is run by only two full-time journalists, publishes considerably less news than Leader Live – but, by some measures, it claims that its audience engagement far outstrips the paper.</p>
<p>Traditional local publishers continue to retreat from communities, moving from town centres to regional hubs and <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4c85b58-2c75-11e5-acfb-cbd2e1c81cca.html">closing local offices</a> which used to provide a valuable point of contact with readers. By contrast, hyperlocal journalists typically live and work in the communities they serve and many are committed to engaging with audiences in real life, as well as digital contexts. </p>
<p>In north London, strong engagement with community news service <a href="https://twitter.com/WHampstead">@WHampstead on Twitter</a> translated into a high turnout for its <a href="https://www.communityjournalism.co.uk/blog/2015/04/17/hosting-a-hustings/">general election hustings event</a>, where the constituency’s candidates were grilled in front of a local audience. Indeed, in hyperlocal news it is now quite common to see this kind of mutually reinforcing real-world and online engagement with politics and community life.</p>
<h2>Encouraging democracy</h2>
<p>Electoral information does not always make for the sexiest of news, and is sometimes downplayed or ignored by local newspaper websites which prioritise clicks over the public interest. To combat this, for this year’s National Assembly for Wales elections, constituency-based website <a href="https://mycardiffnorth.com">My Cardiff North</a> provided information about how to register to vote, who was standing for election locally and details of previous election results for the constituencies in order to inform residents about local issues that the national failed to cover.</p>
<p>During the 2015 general election, community journalists around the country responded to audience questions – around the clock when it came to polling day – on issues such as voter eligibility and the opening times of polling stations. They provided information which could have made the difference between people bothering to vote or not. There was also a commitment to covering even very local <a href="http://alittlebitofstone.com/2015/04/28/stafford-borough-council-elections-walton-ward/">community or borough council elections</a>, explaining issues clearly and in ways that were eye-catching and engaging.</p>
<p>As well as attempting to address the democratic deficit, hyperlocal media has also produced some of the UK’s most innovative electoral coverage. Often finding new ways to engage with audiences and present information, such as organising Twitter hustings and broadcasting <a href="https://www.communityjournalism.co.uk/blog/2015/05/06/hyperlocal-teams-up-with-the-bbc-and-local-newspaper-for-general-election-debate/">candidate interviews on Periscope</a>.</p>
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<p>The Bristol Cable, an <a href="https://thebristolcable.org/membership/">audience-owned media cooperative</a> with a focus on local investigations, <a href="https://thebristolcable.org/2016/04/mayoral-race/">produced an interactive video</a>, YouTube interviews, and interviews with voters for the 2016 Bristol mayoral elections. It even memorably got the city’s UKIP candidate to <a href="https://thebristolcable.org/2016/04/watch-shock-statement-by-ukip-mayoral-candidate/">call for the resignation</a> of party donor Aaron Banks over tax avoidance issues. Likewise, <a href="http://www.theedinburghreporter.co.uk">The Edinburgh Reporter</a> used smartphone app Replay for the May voting period to <a href="https://twitter.com/EdinReporter/status/727913908275712000">film short interviews with electoral candidates</a>, overlaid with text and graphics.</p>
<p>The efforts of hyperlocal reporters are not going unnoticed either: last year <a href="http://thelincolnite.co.uk">The Lincolnite</a> featured alongside big media behemoths Sky News and The Telegraph in industry website journalism.co.uk’s round-up of <a href="https://www.journalism.co.uk/news/how-have-the-uk-press-innovated-in-their-general-election-coverage-/s2/a565048/">innovative general election coverage</a>. This led to the Lincoln site joining forces with BBC Radio Lincolnshire during the 2016 Police and Crime Commissioner elections, for a <a href="http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2016/05/candidates-reactions-lincolnshire-pcc-debate/">debate followed by live candidate reactions</a>.</p>
<p>With the EU referendum on the horizon, hyperlocal journalists will no doubt be readying themselves to help local audiences understand just what is going on. Though on a national scale the work of hyperlocals do not entirely fill the widening “news gap” left by retreating traditional publishers, these community news providers are amply demonstrating the value of democratic engagement at a grassroots level.</p>
<p><em>This article was written in collaboration with project officer Hannah Scarbrough from <a href="https://www.communityjournalism.co.uk/en/">Cardiff University’s Centre for Community journalism</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59542/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Williams sits on the steering board of the Centre for Community Journalism at Cardiff University and has received funding from The Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).</span></em></p>Community media is ensuring society stays informed at all political levels.Andy Williams, Lecturer (teaching and research), Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/596092016-05-23T09:21:17Z2016-05-23T09:21:17ZHow Plaid leader Leanne Wood is building a new era of Welsh politics<p>After a tense week of behind-the-scenes talks, Labour’s Carwyn Jones has been <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-carwyn-jones-named-first-7993827">reconfirmed as first minister in Wales</a> – but not without a tense standoff with Leanne Wood, the charismatic leader of the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru. The deadlock was finally broken after a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36307854">week of negotiations</a> between senior figures in both parties – but Welsh politics will never be the same again.</p>
<p>The Welsh Assembly has 21 <a href="http://www.assembly.wales/en/abthome/role-of-assembly-how-it-works/Pages/governance-of-wales.aspx">areas of responsibility</a> including health, environment and housing, and comprises 60 seats. Of these, <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-s-voting-system-explained-or-at-least-made-a-tiny-bit-simpler-bca7453169d9#.k74i4rud6">40 are elected</a> on a constituency-based first-past-the-post vote, while the other 20 are elected from regional lists to represent one of five Welsh regions (four assembly members (AMs) per region). Since it was created in 1999, Labour has been the largest party in the assembly but never won an outright absolute majority. Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, has played both the official opposition role (1999) and joined Labour in a coalition in 2007.</p>
<p>Following the latest round of elections, and subsequent nominations of the presiding officer (speaker) and her deputy, the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/wales/results">resulting arithmetic of the assembly</a> was mostly as expected: Labour had 28 seats and the deputy presiding officer; Plaid, 11 and the presiding officer. The Conservatives meanwhile won 11 seats; UKIP seven and the Liberal Democrats won just one seat. Plaid, with the second largest number of seats, became the official opposition.</p>
<p>Though Plaid would surely not have chosen anyone else, the nomination of Wood for first minister (FM) <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/11/carwyn-jones-leanne-wood-tied-welsh-first-minister">surprised many</a>, as it had generally been assumed that Carwyn Jones would take up the role unopposed once again. Even more surprising was Plaid’s subsequent <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/plaid-cymru-really-ask-ukip-11319857">support from UKIP and the Conservatives</a> which pushed Wood and Jones <a href="https://theconversation.com/welsh-assembly-in-deadlock-over-first-minister-vote-so-what-happens-next-59318">into a deadlock</a> (the sole Liberal Democrat AM, Kirsty Williams, supported Labour). In the end, because the presiding officers don’t vote, the two candidates had 29 nominations apiece.</p>
<p>And so, in a matter of days Wood emerged both as her party’s heroine – after dramatically clinching <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/assembly-election-2016-leanne-wood-11292451">a Welsh assembly seat</a> in Rhondda from Labour – and as a <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/wales/news/74892/labour-blasts-hypocritical-plaid-cymru-after-leanne-wood-first">controversial figurehead</a>, following this nomination for the top job.</p>
<p>Many had <a href="http://labourlist.org/2016/05/carwyn-jones-fights-on-after-assembly-reaches-deadlock-in-first-minister-vote/">expected Jones</a> to automatically lead Labour in a minority government. However, in an attempt to show that Labour has no “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35715683">divine” right to rule</a>, the opposing parties chose another path – though whether this was an orchestrated collaboration <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/plaid-cymru-really-ask-ukip-11319857">remains unconfirmed</a>.</p>
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<p>Bewilderment that Welsh politics had <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-gets-exciting-some-comments-on-the-impasse-in-cardiff-bay-2b8a0a1460b2%23.n4teo6uqh">suddenly got exciting</a> followed, as people wondered just what would happen to their government. Initial reactions, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/12/welsh-labour-plaid-cymru-accusations-assembly-standoff">especially from Labour members</a>, included soundbites about Plaid’s alleged treachery and the sell-off of Wales’ soul to the “evil” Tories and UKIP – though there was some more <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-gets-exciting-some-comments-on-the-impasse-in-cardiff-bay-2b8a0a1460b2%23.jgno3ljej">balanced analysis</a> from commentators who recognised the legitimacy and boldness of Plaid to <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2016-05-11/rt-davies-labour-had-no-divine-right-to-assume-first-ministership/">question Labour’s entitlement</a> to govern Wales without proper consultations and negotiations. This was in stark contrast to 2007, for instance, when parties did engage in negotiations and the prospect of a <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/failed-rainbow-coup-adam-price-10886665">possible “rainbow” coalition</a> between Plaid, the Lib-Dems and the Tories threatened Labour’s access to power. Rhodri Morgan, the outgoing Labour first minister at the time was eventually nominated to form a government three weeks after the elections. </p>
<p>But has Wood, who now takes on the role of leader of the opposition in the Senedd for the first time, been left unscathed by this? And, more importantly, why did no one see this coming? After all, Wood’s background and profile spell out a strongminded and rebellious political figure.</p>
<h2>New kind of leader</h2>
<p>Wood is a product of the Welsh valleys, with strong convictions on gender, the monarchy, the environment and Trident. She became an AM in 2003 and was elected as Plaid leader in March 2012, over two far <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-17388193">more seasoned candidates</a>, thanks to active younger supporters and a platform advocating bold policy changes. Praised by her own party members as a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-17368526">leading communicator resonating</a> across Wales, she marks a double first for Plaid: the first woman and the first non-fluent Welsh speaker to lead the party.</p>
<p>Outside Wales, Leanne Wood and Plaid Cymru were relatively unknown prior to the 2015 general election televised debates. She <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/general-election-2015-plaid-cymru-9092877">capitalised excellently</a> on being given a national platform, however, and emerged as a political leader “speaking for Wales”. Sharing the stage with other national party leaders, she came out <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/leanne-wood-plaid-cymru-leader-whose-politics-were-forged-in-the-valleys-mining-communities-10188354.html">relatively well</a>, winning plaudits for her <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/plaid-leanne-debate-farage-hiv-8975174">admonition of UKIP leader, Nigel Farage</a>. </p>
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<p>When elected leader, Wood inherited a party that had come third in the assembly elections the year before. Plaid’s further electoral record under Wood is a mixed bag: poor EU parliamentary election performance saw Plaid’s vote share decrease by 3.2% from <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm">2009</a>, but the party held on to its only MEP. In the 2010 general election, Plaid’s vote share <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/09/08/the-electoral-state-of-the-parties-3-plaid-cymru-2">increased marginally by 0.9%</a> from 2010 to 2015 – but that only enabled it to hold on to the three seats it already had.</p>
<p>This year’s assembly elections were the real test but – though there were some <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/wales/results">modest positive swings</a> in vote share – 1.3% in the constituency vote and 3% in the regional ballot – Plaid won only one seat more than in 2011, but this was enough to give them a strong negotiating hand in the fifth assembly.</p>
<p>Most disappointing however, has been Plaid’s declining record on producing gender-balanced assembly teams, despite Wood’s own strong feminist convictions. Once a pioneer <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/women-representation-westminster-stirbu/">leading on gender equality advances</a> in Wales, Plaid has now regressed significantly. Only four of their 12 AMs are women, down from 45% (7 out of 15) in 2011 elections and, 50% (6 out of 12) in 2003. </p>
<h2>Flexing new muscles</h2>
<p>Despite these results, other aspects of Wood’s leadership are more encouraging. The first minister “episode” is an exemplar of Plaid’s ability to show unity despite being ostracised by Labour and risking losing some of its hard-won support. It is also telling of the party’s <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-gets-exciting-some-comments-on-the-impasse-in-cardiff-bay-2b8a0a1460b2%23.ve2pjaz80">more muscular approach</a>, and its new-found determination to demand Labour’s respect and maximise opportunities to implement its own policies. After all, we can argue that Plaid has capitalised excellently on the very minor electoral gains made on May 5.</p>
<p>No doubt the negotiations with Labour to break the deadlock were tough – but Wood stood her ground. Both parties left posturing aside and <a href="http://labourlist.org/2016/05/first-minister-standoff-in-wales-could-be-at-an-end-as-labour-and-plaid-reach-agreement/">successfully kept the talks out of the media</a>. Being able to secure an <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36320916">advanced look at the budget</a> and winning a formal platform for early consultations with Labour via liaison committees on finance, legislation and the constitution are outcomes that should please Wood and do her position no harm at all. </p>
<p>Plaid seems ready to challenge the establishment and the next five years will certainly test the party’s unity and Wood’s ability to build towards further electoral success. No longer content with the <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/one-big-happy-family-the-welsh-political-parties-3ea2fd01ffaa%23.mqd5uc3d1">eternal opposition status</a>, Plaid is growing up under Leanne Wood’s leadership.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diana Stirbu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Leanne Wood: socialist, republican, feminist – and the woman who is changing the face of Welsh politics.Diana Stirbu, Senior Lecturer in Public Administration, London Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/586612016-05-06T13:23:42Z2016-05-06T13:23:42ZThe taxing problem of Welsh politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121240/original/image-20160504-6918-8lihha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Welsh government is going to start holding the purse strings.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-315654962/stock-photo-single-british-pound-coin-with-imprinted-welsh-dragon-standing-upright-on-a-graduated-golden.html?src=GZVWeRAR-OnaMJdNH1wxUQ-1-4">www.shutterstock.com/John Williams RUS</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Yet again, the recent Welsh assembly election campaign was primarily about how best to spend public money. But recent developments mean devolved elections in Wales will soon focus on how best to raise public money, too. </p>
<p>For the most part, spending by the Welsh government has been <a href="http://law.gov.wales/constitution-government/government-in-wales/finance/?lang=en">funded by an annual block grant</a> determined by the Barnett formula that it gets from HM Treasury. There has been little direct link between revenue from taxes in Wales and the amount of money that Welsh government ministers have to spend on devolved public services.</p>
<p>In this regard, Wales’s funding framework has been highly unusual from an international perspective: there aren’t many governments in the world with significant legislative and spending powers, that don’t also have a correspondingly important responsibility for raising tax revenues, too. </p>
<p>However, the way that Wales is funded <a href="http://gov.wales/funding/financereform/taxes-in-wales/?lang=en">is now set to change dramatically</a> in coming years with the advent of tax devolution. Advocates of fiscal devolution hope it will increase the financial empowerment and accountability of future Welsh governments. </p>
<h2>Tax devolution proposals</h2>
<p>Council tax has so far been the only revenue source that directly affected the level of devolved spending. As of April 2015, <a href="http://41ydvd1cuyvlonsm03mpf21pub.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com//wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Devolved-Taxes-in-Wales-The-Context3.pdf">non-domestic (business) rates were also fully devolved</a>, and from April 2018, the UK stamp duty land tax and landfill tax will cease to apply in Wales, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-33326727">to be replaced with devolved taxes</a>.</p>
<p>Most significantly, the Welsh government will be given responsibility over a £2 billion share of Welsh income taxes, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-34910531">without the need for an affirmative vote</a> in a referendum to give it this power. This means that the assembly will gain control over 10p of each tax band, so, for example, a basic rate income taxpayer will pay 10p in the pound to the UK government, and 10p to the Welsh government. Higher rate payers in Wales (some 145,000 this year) will start to pay 30p in the pound to the UK government, and 10p to the Welsh government. </p>
<p>Taken together, revenues soon to be under the control of the Welsh government <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/15bn-tax-deficit-heart-wales-11131738">amounted to £4.2 billion in 2014-15</a>. Once devolved, these revenues will also increase the borrowing capacity of the Welsh government. </p>
<p>The Welsh government will also able to introduce “new” taxes using its devolved powers, subject to the approval of both Houses of Parliament and the Welsh assembly. It appeared that <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/sugary-drinks-tax-backed-labour-10576809">Plaid Cymru’s proposal for a “sugar tax”</a> might have been the first new Welsh tax, before George Osborne introduced a similar measure in his March budget.</p>
<h2>Manifesto tax promises</h2>
<p>These new tax powers represent a historic change in Wales’ devolution settlement, and introduce a new aspect to assembly elections: for the first time, tax policies featured prominently in the parties’ manifestos this year.</p>
<p>The reform or reduction in business rates was a recurring theme in the parties’ election promises. The <a href="http://www.welshconservatives.com/sites/www.welshconservatives.com/files/welsh_manifesto_finalenglish_0.pdf">Conservatives</a> and <a href="http://www.plaid2016.wales/manifesto">Plaid Cymru</a> wished to extend the small business rates relief to more businesses, for example. While providing less detail, <a href="http://www.togetherfor.wales/read_manifesto">Labour</a> also committed to tax cuts for small businesses. </p>
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<p>Looking at council tax, the Welsh Conservatives emphasised that it has been increasing faster in Wales than in England and Scotland, and <a href="http://www.welshconservatives.com/sites/www.welshconservatives.com/files/welsh_manifesto_finalenglish_0.pdf">proposed a freeze</a> over the next five years. The Liberal Democrats wished to <a href="http://www.libdems.org.uk/manifesto">reduce council tax for homes improving their energy efficiency</a>; and Plaid Cymru proposed to <a href="http://www.plaid2016.wales/manifesto">address the regressive nature of council tax</a>, by reducing payments from lower valued homes and offering relief for those on lower incomes.</p>
<p>On stamp duty, Plaid Cymru wished to <a href="http://www.plaid2016.wales/manifesto">raise the value threshold</a> at which the tax becomes payable in Wales to £145,000 – up from £125,000 – while the Conservatives pledged to <a href="http://www.welshconservatives.com/sites/www.welshconservatives.com/files/welsh_manifesto_finalenglish_0.pdf">increase the threshold for first-time buyers</a> to £250,000.</p>
<p>The Liberal Democrat <a href="http://www.tax.org.uk/media-centre/blog/media-and-politics/manifesto-tax-policies-liberal-democrats">plan for an “incineration tax”</a> was the only new tax being proposed for Wales, which they hope will “further encourage recycling”. </p>
<h2>A flavour of things to come</h2>
<p>As the biggest devolved revenue, it is income tax that offers the largest lever to vary levels of taxation and expenditure in Wales. Changing tax rates away from 10p will have an immediate impact on the Welsh Budget, and economic behaviour.</p>
<p>The Welsh Conservative party announced that it will seek to cut income tax rates, suggesting a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36058382">fall of 2p in the basic rate, and 5p in the higher rate</a>, as part of their desire to make Wales the “low tax capital of the UK”. The Liberal Democrats planned to reduce tax rates for the lowest and middle-income taxpayers first, while Labour and Plaid Cymru pledged not to increase tax rates in the next assembly term.</p>
<p>However, it hasn’t been decided how and when income tax will be devolved to Wales. To account for the extra revenue from devolved taxes, a downward adjustment will be made to Wales’ existing block grant from HM Treasury. The <a href="http://sites.cardiff.ac.uk/wgc/files/2016/02/Income-Tax-and-Wales.pdf">yet-unanswered multi-million pound question</a> is how this block grant adjustment will be changed over time. </p>
<p>Apart from tax policy decisions and the performance of the Welsh economy, it is this method of adjustment that will ultimately determine the effect of tax devolution on the Welsh budget. The year-long row over <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-agreement-between-the-scottish-government-and-the-united-kingdom-government-on-the-scottish-governments-fiscal-framework">Scotland’s fiscal framework</a> proves that this issue will be the subject of intense political negotiations in Wales, too. There will be hundreds of millions of pounds at stake, and some of the methods proposed in the Scottish negotiations could lead <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36192720">to very large cuts</a> to the Welsh budget <a href="https://assemblyinbrief.wordpress.com/2015/01/29/relevance-of-the-proposed-scottish-fiscal-framework-to-wales/">if applied to Wales</a>. Negotiations on these matters will be at the top of the ministerial in-tray for Wales’ next finance minister.</p>
<p>These outstanding issues and uncertainties somewhat subdued the debate on income tax policy for this election campaign. This contrasts with the situation in Scotland, where a concrete timeline and an agreed fiscal framework allowed the tax policies of each party to <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d2ea1350-f205-11e5-aff5-19b4e253664a.html">take centre stage in the election campaign</a>. The result might be a flavour of things to come in future Welsh elections, too. </p>
<p>The 2016 result has seen Labour holding on to power in the Senedd, and it remains to be seen how much they will seek to use the newly devolved fiscal powers. The tax policies of other parties may come into play through any deals struck with a Labour government without a majority. Meanwhile, in light of rather disappointing results this time around, one would expect the Welsh Conservatives will wish to make tax a much more prominent issue in Welsh politics in coming years.</p>
<p>By the next Welsh assembly election in 2021, Wales’s new fiscal framework should be a lot clearer, with new rules in place, allowing parties to fight over how to raise public money, as well as how to spend it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58661/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guto Ifan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New devolved powers will see Wales taking control of more taxes – but things aren’t as straightforward as they seem.Guto Ifan, Researcher, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/590122016-05-06T10:28:41Z2016-05-06T10:28:41ZWales: UKIP and Plaid gain new assembly seats as Labour holds on to power<p>In the Welsh Assembly elections, much of the story has remained unchanged: Labour has won again, keeping the leading position it has enjoyed since the Senedd was first opened in 1999. </p>
<p>Despite seeing a significant fall in vote share on the last National Assembly election – down <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/wales/results">7.9% across all constituencies</a> – Labour is still well ahead of a divided opposition, and held on to <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2016-05-06/leanne-wood-victory-in-rhondda-shock-result/">all but one</a> of its constituency seats. In total, Labour now has 29 out of the 60 seats altogether – coming in well ahead of the field, and holding on to two regional list seats, as well as the three seats it had been projected to lose: Cardiff North, Cardiff Central and Llanelli.</p>
<p>While these elections at least have heralded no surprises for the winner, the race for second place was an altogether very different matter.</p>
<p>For Plaid Cymru, the night was one of mixed fortunes. Party leader <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/06/labour-wales-plaid-cymru-takes-rhondda-plaid-cymru">Leanne Wood won a famous victory in Rhondda</a> – beating former Labour AM Leighton Andrews, who had held the seat for 13 years – with a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36207410">24% swing in votes</a> to the party of Wales. Elsewhere, however, Plaid fell short in all their constituency targets, such as Llanelli and Aberconwy. </p>
<p>The Conservatives were among the big losers of the night, losing three seats and their position as the assembly’s second party. They had begun the campaign hoping to make significant gains, having managed to take former Labour strongholds <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-wales-32639473">Gower</a> and Clwyd in the 2015 General Election. But they lost votes, and regional list seats, allowing Plaid Cymru to reclaim its place as second in the Senedd.</p>
<p>But if the Tories were losers, UKIP were in some ways the biggest winners. Although the party slightly under-performed its vote share in recent polls, the night can only be described as a huge success for UKIP. Never having won a seat before in the assembly, it now has a contingent of seven AMs dotted across the country, elected via the regional lists. Former Conservative MP Mark Reckless, the party’s Wales leader Nathan Gill, and former MP Neil Hamilton were among those who made the “breakthrough”, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/elections-2016-ukip-win-first-seats-in-welsh-assembly-a7016071.html">in the words of Nigel Farage</a>.</p>
<p>For the Liberal Democrats, party leader Kirsty Williams won an impressive personal victory in Brecon and Radnorshire, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/wales-constituencies/W09000041">increasing her majority by 9.3%</a> – 8,170 votes more than prospective Conservative candidate Gary Price. Following the results announcement, Williams promised that the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36222772">party’s rebuild “begins here”</a>, but with her now being the only Lib-Dem in the chamber (down from six elected in 2011) her party will no longer have official recognition in the assembly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Scully receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>All eyes were on the race for second place in the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections.Roger Awan-Scully, Professor of Political Science, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/588292016-05-04T14:47:06Z2016-05-04T14:47:06ZGender balance is back on the agenda but can women get elected in 2016?<p>UK voters are heading to the polls to vote in an unprecedented number of elections outside a general election year. Chief among these are the devolved elections in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London. And since the establishment of these regional bodies between 1998 and 2000, gender equality has been <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/women-representation-westminster-stirbu/">a key theme</a>.</p>
<p>The road towards a gender balanced House of Commons has been a long and slow one, but devolved parliaments were an opportunity for a fresh start for female representation in British politics. The <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP12-43.pdf">first London Assembly in 2000 comprised 48% women</a>, and in 2003 the Welsh Assembly became the first national elected body in the world to achieve <a href="http://www.clickonwales.org/2016/03/how-feminist-is-the-welsh-assembly/">gender parity among its members</a>. The Scottish Parliament also saw close to 40% women in Holyrood in 2003. </p>
<p>These early successes proved to be a high water mark, however, and since 2003 the number of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/mar/15/women-in-scottish-welsh-parliaments">women elected to the devolved bodies has either stalled or fallen</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121347/original/image-20160505-19858-zf6ljf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fig.1: Proportion of female representatives over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Cullinane</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, in 2016, as revealed by our research for the <a href="http://democraticdashboard.com/">LSE’s Democratic Dashboard</a>, the proportion of female candidates standing for election <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Gender-and-the-2016-Elections-Data-Briefing.pdf">has risen substantially</a> in all four jurisdictions, ranging from four percentage points in Wales to more than ten percentage points in Scotland and Northern Ireland. In the case of Wales and London, increases largely compensate for past falls, however the proportion of female candidates have reached all time highs in the Scottish Parliament and Northern Ireland Assembly elections.</p>
<p>In Northern Ireland, the number of women running has in fact doubled from 38 to 76 since 2011. This jump is particularly significant, as the proportion of female candidates running for Stormont has been both historically low in comparison to other elected bodies in the UK, and also stagnant, hovering between 17 and 19%. And the Northern Ireland Assembly <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-assembly-urged-to-end-gender-imbalance-31053610.html">has been described</a> as “one of the most unequal legislatures in Western Europe”. </p>
<p>This year’s increase to over 27% marks a significant juncture for female political participation in the province. Research has identified the increasing <a href="http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/knowledge_exchange/briefing_papers/series5/matthews-briefing.pdf">centralisation of the candidate selection process</a> as a source of progress, as the previous dominance of the grassroots in candidate selection had traditionally disadvantaged women. While Sinn Féin remains the only party to employ formal gender balance mechanisms, more women are running in 2016 in parties across the political spectrum.</p>
<p>Likewise, Scotland has seen significant progress in terms of female candidate selection, with several major parties, most notably Labour and the SNP, employing all women shortlists, along with “zipping” tactics – where men and women are alternated on party lists – to balance the regional lists. Placement in party list is a crucial issue, and <a href="https://genderpoliticsatedinburgh.wordpress.com/gender-and-candidate-selection-2016/">Labour and the SNP have achieved balance</a> (or very close to it) in their top three candidates in each region.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121348/original/image-20160505-19851-1p3xlx4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fig. 2: Proportion of female candidates, 2011-2016 (London Assembly 2012-2016)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Cullinane</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Translating into gains</h2>
<p>However, indications are that the increase in female candidates may not translate into equivalent increases in women elected. In London and Wales the number of women elected is likely to be either stagnant, or increase by a very small amount. In Wales, the Electoral Reform Society Cymru recently published an in-depth exploration of the picture for the Welsh Assembly, and found that while all women shortlists and zipping are used – in particular by the Labour Party – women are significantly more likely than men <a href="http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/sites/default/files/files/publication/Women-in-the-National-Assembly-of-Wales.pdf">to be defending “marginal” seats</a>. Of the 11 battleground constituencies, ten are being defended by women.</p>
<p>This picture is to an extent repeated elsewhere. There are two main mechanisms where more female candidates may not translate into more seats. One is intra-party competition, where women are selected to contest seats, or are allocated list positions, that are less likely to result in victory. </p>
<p>The second is inter-party variation in the proportion of women selected. There are drastic differences in gender balance between parties, with Labour, the SNP, the Greens and the Lib Dems achieving significant advances towards parity in the jurisdictions where they field candidates, while the Conservatives, UKIP and the DUP lag substantially behind, due to a lack of willingness to adopt the often internally unpopular all women shortlists and other such policies. Much of the increase in female candidates in 2016 is being driven by smaller parties less likely to win seats, in particular the Greens, the Women’s Equality party, along with RISE and Solidarity in Scotland.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121349/original/image-20160505-19877-1cr94je.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fig. 3: Gender balance between parties in 2016 Scottish Parliamentary Election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Cullinane</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nonetheless, it is clear that gender balance is back on the agenda in these devolved elections. Northern Ireland stands on the cusp of change for female representation in Stormont, while Scotland could well bear out the <a href="http://www.democraticauditscotland.com/has-the-tide-turned-for-womens-representation-in-scotland/">prediction that the tide has turned for women</a> in politics there, led by women at the forefront of party leadership in Holyrood. Though the mixed electoral systems across the devolved nations make it very hard to predict, the prospects for women in Wales and London will likely to come down to fine margins. Regardless, this year is likely to see a step forward, even if a modest one, and, as the years since 2003 have shown, this isn’t something to take for granted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl Cullinane receives funding from LSE HEIF5 Innovation Fund, Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, and Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils or other public funders.</span></em></p>More candidates mean a change in politics, but it’s not as easy as creating policies such as all women shortlists.Carl Cullinane, Research Manager for Democratic Audit, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/570202016-04-04T15:38:42Z2016-04-04T15:38:42ZBritish media is failing to give voters the full picture ahead of elections<p>When you tune in to the latest UK political news, it is often dominated by the Westminster bubble. This is not a problem as such, but with elections in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to take place in May, there are important questions about the access people in the nations beyond England will have to news about the campaigns that affect them.</p>
<p>A new <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/">survey of people in Wales</a> sheds some light on routine news consumption habits. It shows that many rely on news produced in England, or UK-wide news, which has limited information about Welsh affairs.</p>
<p>As a consequence, the latest survey reminds us that we have a democratic deficit in Wales: people are not regularly exposed to news about Welsh Assembly matters, despite the fact that it is responsible for key policy areas such as health and education. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117372/original/image-20160404-27125-1277xhz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117372/original/image-20160404-27125-1277xhz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117372/original/image-20160404-27125-1277xhz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117372/original/image-20160404-27125-1277xhz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117372/original/image-20160404-27125-1277xhz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117372/original/image-20160404-27125-1277xhz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117372/original/image-20160404-27125-1277xhz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reader deficit</h2>
<p>One of the most striking findings of the survey is the low number of people reading a newspaper produced in Wales – 5% or fewer. The Western Mail carries the most comprehensive coverage of the assembly, but the survey revealed that fewer than 4% regularly read it; when asked to name their main newspaper, just 1% of respondents said The Western Mail.</p>
<p>The Daily Mail, by contrast, is almost ten times more likely to be named as a main daily newspaper and is read regularly by four times more people in Wales than The Western Mail. Moreover, most of the newspapers produced in England reach a far greater proportion of people in Wales than the major titles reporting coverage of Welsh politics. A cursory flick through any of the English papers reveals that <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pa.198/abstract">scant attention is paid to Wales, let alone the assembly</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117375/original/image-20160404-27136-tmvxs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117375/original/image-20160404-27136-tmvxs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117375/original/image-20160404-27136-tmvxs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117375/original/image-20160404-27136-tmvxs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117375/original/image-20160404-27136-tmvxs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117375/original/image-20160404-27136-tmvxs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117375/original/image-20160404-27136-tmvxs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117375/original/image-20160404-27136-tmvxs1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Broadcasters in Wales, on the other hand, reach a far greater proportion of people than newspapers. BBC Wales Today is the most widely consumed – 37% of people frequently tune in – while 17% and 13% of people in Wales regularly watch ITV’s Wales Tonight or listen to BBC Radio Wales respectively.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117378/original/image-20160404-27145-1cdc05d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117378/original/image-20160404-27145-1cdc05d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117378/original/image-20160404-27145-1cdc05d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117378/original/image-20160404-27145-1cdc05d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117378/original/image-20160404-27145-1cdc05d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117378/original/image-20160404-27145-1cdc05d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117378/original/image-20160404-27145-1cdc05d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117378/original/image-20160404-27145-1cdc05d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>UK vs the nations</h2>
<p>The thirst for UK-wide broadcast news in Wales has not diminished in the 17 years since devolution began. The BBC News at Six or Ten is watched by nearly 37% of respondents regularly, while 30% of people tune into the BBC News channel. ITV’s Evening News or News at Ten and Sky News are viewed less often – 11% and 13% respectively – but still rank as key sources relative to other news produced in Wales. Despite these positive viewer numbers, however, <a href="http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/assets/files/pdf/review_report_research/impartiality/2010/nations_impartiality_analysis.pdf">content analysis of UK-wide broadcast programming</a> has shown Wales generally, and the assembly specifically, represent only a tiny proportion of the news agenda. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117442/original/image-20160405-13566-w93soz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117442/original/image-20160405-13566-w93soz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117442/original/image-20160405-13566-w93soz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117442/original/image-20160405-13566-w93soz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117442/original/image-20160405-13566-w93soz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117442/original/image-20160405-13566-w93soz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117442/original/image-20160405-13566-w93soz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117442/original/image-20160405-13566-w93soz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The survey also found that 11% regularly rely on the internet for news – whether online sites or blogs and Twitter, with 27% using Facebook. We can only speculate about how far these sources are used for the specific purpose of finding news about the Welsh assembly, but the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/products/9781138906228">evidence</a> suggests that most people rely on established media outlets online or social media – the BBC, say, or MailOnline – for news rather than seeking alternative sources.</p>
<p>Above all, the survey reveals the important role public service broadcasting has for people in Wales. Both the BBC and ITV have regulatory obligations to serve audiences in the nations and, to different degrees, supply important information about politics and public affairs in Wales. </p>
<p>But if we leave aside ITV’s evening bulletin and BBC Wales’ broadcast and online services, the survey showed few people regularly access news produced in Wales. </p>
<h2>Devolution confusion</h2>
<p>Media effects are notoriously difficult to measure, but when considering the number of people in Wales who are misinformed about the assembly’s powers compared to Westminster’s, it is difficult to overlook their reliance on UK-wide news. </p>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-27739205">2014 BBC poll</a>, 43% and 31% of respondents thought health and education respectively – two major areas of devolved control – were the UK government’s responsibility, while 42% of people wrongly believed policing was an assembly matter. </p>
<p>Although levels of education may help to explain some of the variance in political understanding, the devolution confusion was very likely compounded by the fact that the wider media culture is dominated by English concerns. Moreover, any exposure to political news they may have encountered is highly likely to have been about Westminster affairs.</p>
<p>Research has shown that <a href="http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/assets/files/pdf/review_report_research/impartiality/2010/nations_impartiality_analysis.pdf">UK broadcast news often gives limited context about the policy relevance of stories</a>, with perhaps a fleeting mention of “in England” at the beginning of a package. But news is rarely delivered from a comparative perspective, so an English policy issue is interpreted for people in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>And yet, UK news could be made more relevant to the nations beyond England. </p>
<p>For example, parents in both Exeter and Edinburgh would surely find it interesting to know that while university tuition fees can cost £9,000 per year in England, students in Scotland do not pay. In complex policy areas, of course, communicating news about devolved politics and making it relevant for all UK audiences is a more challenging task. </p>
<p>As May’s devolved elections draw closer, this <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/">survey</a> clearly highlights the need for people to be more regularly exposed to UK news about Welsh political affairs. But with debates about the EU referendum looming large, news about Wales could slip even further down the UK’s media agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Cushion receives funding from The BBC Trust and ESRC</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Scully receives funding from the ESRC.
This article does not reflect the views of the research councils. </span></em></p>You wouldn’t know elections are happening all over the country, looking at the national press.Stephen Cushion, Reader, School of Journalism, Media and Cultural Studies, Cardiff UniversityRoger Awan-Scully, Professor of Political Science, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/551852016-02-24T11:21:52Z2016-02-24T11:21:52ZHow the Welsh voting system could secure nine Assembly seats for Ukip<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112569/original/image-20160223-16447-nwitx0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The latest polls predict Ukip taking seats in every Welsh Assembly constituency.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=national%20assembly%20for%20wales&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=20294317">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On May 5, voters in Wales will head to the polls to elect the country’s fifth devolved government. This forthcoming National Assembly is set to look dramatically different to all of those preceding it, namely because of the addition of one party – Ukip. </p>
<p>Polls in Wales have shown the party steadily increasing its support, building upon its <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/full-welsh-results-general-election-9212002">strong 2015 General Election performance</a>, when Ukip came second to Labour in six of Wales’ constituencies, and third overall in the Welsh popular vote. Indeed, it appears as if nothing is able to stop their march on the Senedd. </p>
<p>Despite a month of media coverage of Welsh Ukip <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35549828">infighting and lack of cohesion</a>, the <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-02-15/poll-points-to-five-party-senedd-as-ukip-support-grows/">latest Wales Barometer Poll</a> recorded the party’s highest level of support yet in Wales – 18% at both the constituency and regional level. With the Conservative party at 22% and Plaid Cymru at 19%, there could very well be a three-way struggle for the position of Wales’ second largest party. </p>
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<p>For a party that at its peak had just two MPs, both from the South East of England, many outside Wales reacted with shock to the news that Ukip could achieve such significant levels of support in Wales. The Financial Times went so far as to <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2aa5a1fa-d64e-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html">describe Ukip’s position in Wales as “surging”</a>. </p>
<p>However, this characterisation is mistaken. Ukip support in Wales is broadly in line with that of much of England. In the 2015 general election, Ukip received 14.1% of the vote in England – compared to 13.6% in Wales – while in the northeast of England – the region most similar demographically to Wales – Ukip received 16.7% of the popular vote. A YouGov poll on February 4 measured UK-wide Ukip support at 18% –- the same as that recorded in Wales.</p>
<p>The difference is that in Wales, Ukip could realistically convert this support into significant representation in the Assembly. It is less a matter of “surging” support in Wales and more a symptom of an electoral system that could bring them actual power. </p>
<p>The electoral system used in the UK for general elections in effect penalises the sort of broad support that Ukip has (think back to the Liberal Democrats in 2010). In order to win representation at Westminster, it’s necessary to have geographically concentrated support, to win in <a href="http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/first-past-the-post">First Past the Post (FPTP) constituency contests</a>. </p>
<p>For the Welsh Assembly elections, however, a different electoral system is used, one which combines two votes: one FPTP, and one which is a form of proportional representation (PR). This PR section of the vote “penalises” parties that win constituency contests, making it easier for smaller parties to win seats. This system suits Ukip very well, as, unlike Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru, their broad levels of support aren’t concentrated enough to win constituency seats. </p>
<p>So, while levels of support for Ukip in Wales are not particularly different from anywhere else, the electoral system in Wales is better suited to transform their levels of support into representation. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112376/original/image-20160222-25879-pqfngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112376/original/image-20160222-25879-pqfngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112376/original/image-20160222-25879-pqfngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112376/original/image-20160222-25879-pqfngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112376/original/image-20160222-25879-pqfngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112376/original/image-20160222-25879-pqfngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112376/original/image-20160222-25879-pqfngx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Though Ukip support in Wales may not be surging, it undoubtedly appears to be increasing steadily: Ukip support in the regional list has <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2015/05/06/final-welsh-political-barometer-poll-of-the-election/">grown from 13% in a May 2015 Barometer poll</a> to <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/02/15/1323/">18% in the most recent</a>.</p>
<p>What is behind this steady increase isn’t entirely clear. One possible explanation is the dramatic increase in media coverage of the impending EU referendum. Ukip has attempted to position itself, with some success, as representing one side of that debate – so much so that a media discussion of the EU is often accompanied by a mention of Ukip. </p>
<p>With the EU referendum now confirmed to take place shortly after the Assembly elections in May, the EU vote is likely to supplant the National Assembly for Wales as the top political news story. As a result, the publicity Ukip receive will get a significant boost. Indeed, the same Barometer poll that measured Ukip’s support at 18%, also showed that 45% of respondents would opt to leave the EU, compared to 37% who would opt to stay. It’s possible that the interplay between these two political events will only increase as both campaigns get closer. </p>
<p>Whether Ukip can turn this support and coverage into seats in the Senedd, however, will likely be a question of turnout. Turnout is historically lower in Assembly elections – <a href="http://www.assembly.wales/Research%20Documents/2011%20Assembly%20Election%20Results%20-%20Research%20paper-18052011-216014/11-023-English.pdf">just 41.4% in 2011</a> – so “getting the vote out” is vital for parties to succeed. Plaid Cymru, for example, has historically been successful at this, achieving vote shares an average 10% higher in Assembly elections than general elections. Ukip, is somewhat of an unknown quantity here. </p>
<p>With the EU referendum just seven weeks after the devolved elections, it will be interesting to see what effect – if any – this has with their supporters. Will Ukip supporters have their attention focused on the “big one”, and neglect the Welsh vote? Or will they be galvanised and use the devolved elections as a launchpad for their campaign? How Ukip supporters react, could well decide the makeup of the next National Assembly for Wales.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jac Larner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Until now, the National Assembly for Wales elections have been a four party race. But there’s a surprising new force on the scene.Jac Larner, PhD researcher, Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.