tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/young-voters-25538/articlesYoung voters – The Conversation2024-03-27T17:06:11Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263502024-03-27T17:06:11Z2024-03-27T17:06:11ZUS election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost<p>American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign.</p>
<p>One source of polarisation that is rarely discussed is the divide between young and old voters at elections. Over the past 50 years, young and old have often supported the same candidate, but in 2024 younger voters are <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-turning-off-tiktok-is-big-risk-for-democrats-heres-why-225942">expected to be particularly important</a>.</p>
<p>In 1971, the 26th amendment of the US constitution changed the minimum voting age from 21 to 18, bringing swathes of new voters to the ballot box. </p>
<p>The 1972 contest was a challenge for both parties, who wanted to make sure to win over these new younger voters. Republican Richard Nixon was up against Democrat challenger George McGovern. While college-educated young voters appeared to like McGovern because he opposed the Vietnam war (which was the focus of enormous protests <a href="https://depts.washington.edu/antiwar/vietnam_student.shtml">on university campuses</a>), non-college goers seemed to swing towards Nixon. Older voters were also showing their preferences for Nixon.</p>
<p>Although McGovern was the favourite to win the young vote, Nixon was determined not to ignore <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/10/29/nixon-mcgovern-1972-young-voters/">younger voters in his campaign</a>. He even appointed a full-time member of staff to create campaigning specifically for these new voters, running a new organisation Young Voters for the President. Nixon unexpectedly won almost <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1972/11/09/archives/president-won-49-states-and-521-electoral-votes-president-was.html">half the first-time voters</a>.</p>
<p>However, in the 1970s and early 1980s there was little difference between the two age groups in their support for the Democrats. The chart below compares the voting behaviour of young and old Democratic voters in every presidential election since 1972. </p>
<p>It shows support for Democratic candidates in these elections by different age groups. Young voters are defined as those under the age of 25 and old voters those over the age of 64. The data comes from the <a href="https://electionstudies.org/">American National Election Study</a> (ANES).</p>
<p><strong>The relationship between voting for the Democrats and age in US presidential elections from 1972 to 2020:</strong></p>
<p>This pattern of voting started to change after the landslide victory for Republican George Bush senior in 1988. </p>
<p>When Bush was defeated by Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992, Clinton gained support from both young and old Americans by significant margins. That across-the-board support began to shift during his term of office though.</p>
<p>The young became more enthusiastic supporters of the Democrats compared with older voters, and since then the divergence in support has continued to widen. In 2020, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/number-public-polls-show-young-voters-turning-biden-rcna125794">74% of the young </a> voted for Democrat Joe Biden, compared with 55% of the older group. Biden won 60% of voters ages 18-29, compared to Donald Trump’s 36% in 2020. </p>
<p>What explains this trend, and why are the votes of those different age groups now so different? There are two broad factors at work: the first relates to the ideological leanings of young Americans compared with their older counterparts. The chart below shows responses to a question in the 2020 ANES survey asking respondents where they place themselves on a left-right ideological scale.</p>
<p><strong>The ideological attachments of young and old voters in the US presidential election of 2020:</strong></p>
<p>The chart above shows that young voters are much more likely to consider themselves as liberals compared to their older counterparts. Altogether, 49% of young Americans described themselves as liberals, with 29% describing themselves as conservatives. This is in sharp contrast to older voters with 29% liberals, and 47% conservatives. </p>
<p>This trend was confirmed by additional questions asking about contentious issues dividing liberals from conservatives. Some 57% of young voters were completely pro-choice on abortion, <a href="https://electionstudies.org/data-tools/anes-guide/anes-guide.html?chart=abortion_by_law">compared with 41% of older voters</a>. Equally 32% of young Americans were very strongly in favour of affirmative action or <a href="https://electionstudies.org/data-tools/anes-guide/anes-guide.html?chart=aid_to_blacks_minorities_7_pt">government assistance</a> for Black and ethnic minority people, compared with only 13% of voters over 60.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-turning-off-tiktok-is-a-big-risk-for-the-democrats-225942">US election: turning off TikTok is a big risk for the Democrats</a>
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<p>The second factor is the economic performance of the incumbent president, which has a strong influence on voting behaviour. In 2020, 17% of young voters (18-29) said the economy had got better and <a href="https://electionstudies.org/data-tools/anes-guide/anes-guide.html?chart=retrospective_economy">56.7% said it had become worse in the last year</a>. </p>
<p>The equivalent figures for older voters (over 60) were 21.4% said it had got better and 57.7% said it had got worse. Clearly, in that year young people were less positive than the older generation. </p>
<h2>Youthful boost for Biden</h2>
<p>In 2024, Biden’s campaign team are very focused on the youth vote, attempting to build on their success in gaining their support for the Democrats in the midterms. But there had been some suggestions, in late 2023, that this age group was <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/number-public-polls-show-young-voters-turning-biden-rcna125794">slipping away</a>. </p>
<p>However, an Economist/YouGov poll conducted on March 10-12 2024 reported some encouraging news for the Democrats. It found 55% of voters between 18 and 29 had a favourable opinion of Biden, compared <a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_Ba6mR1n.pdf">with 38% of respondents</a> over over the age of 65. In contrast 40% of the young had a favourable opinion of Trump, compared with 50% of older voters.</p>
<p>This may partly be down to the efforts of the Democrats to woo and work with <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-biden-is-investing-in-influencers-to-help-with-this-years-election-224912">social media influencers</a> as well as building a <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-turning-off-tiktok-is-big-risk-for-democrats-heres-why-225942">significant TikTok presence</a>. The Biden team will want to build on this during the campaign, as it could create the margin that will deliver a win for them in November.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC. </span></em></p>Young voters have not always swung in different ways to older generations, as a look at historical data shows.Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250472024-03-06T02:04:33Z2024-03-06T02:04:33ZAfter Super Tuesday, exhausted Americans face 8 more months of presidential campaigning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579935/original/file-20240305-28-wuuee4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1072%2C26%2C3342%2C2846&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Campaign volunteers set up signs encouraging people to vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024Alabama/e953d3d110334cfea6a90b336231b74d/photo">AP Photo/Vasha Hunt</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Now that Super Tuesday is over and the <a href="https://apnews.com/live/super-tuesday-updates-results">Democratic and Republican nominees are all but officially chosen</a>, as everyone expected, voters can turn the page to the general election. </p>
<p>But they’re not excited about it, and they haven’t been for months.</p>
<p>A September 2023 Monmouth University poll showed <a href="https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_100223/">no more than 40% of Americans said they were “enthusiastic”</a> for either Biden or Trump to run again. That same month, the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/americans-dismal-views-of-the-nations-politics/">Pew Research Center</a> found that 65% of Americans were exhausted with the current state of American politics. In February 2024, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/19/us/politics/trump-resistance-democrats-voters.html">The New York Times</a> said Democrats in particular were burned out by the seemingly endless avalanche of political crises.</p>
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<p>It is not surprising that a rematch of the 2020 election is failing to inspire excitement in the American people. Yet, as a political scientist who studies <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/citizens-of-the-world-9780197599389">citizen engagement</a> and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/feeling-their-pain-9780197696903">the public’s feelings</a> toward the candidates, I find these trends disturbing. It’s not just polarization that’s driving voters’ malaise – it’s something else, which carries a stark warning for the health of American democracy.</p>
<h2>There is another divide in politics</h2>
<p>Most discussions of the current state of the American electorate have understandably focused on political polarization. Democrats and Republicans often <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo27527354.html">express disdain for each other</a>, even when they don’t actually disagree on specific policies for the nation to pursue. </p>
<p>Some of this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/715072">disdain is rooted in identity</a>. For example, people who hold unfavorable attitudes toward African Americans, feminists and other groups associated with the Democratic Party tend to identify more strongly with the Republican Party. People with unfavorable attitudes toward stereotypically Republican groups such as evangelicals and gun owners tend to be stronger Democrats.</p>
<p>From this perspective, Democrats and Republicans are pack animals motivated to protect their group and their group’s interests.</p>
<p>Often overlooked, however, is how the vitriol of modern American politics fuels what political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan call “<a href="https://www.otherdividebook.com/">The Other Divide</a>.” This is the divide between people who engage in politics and those who don’t.</p>
<p>In short, a significant number of Americans don’t talk about politics, whether because they are not interested in politics or are turned off by the negativity. It’s a gradual trend dating back to the 1980s and 1990s that has continued for decades now. This weakens the fabric of democracy, because the only voices that are heard online and in the media are from those who are most willing to speak up. They tend to be the most dissonant and extreme views.</p>
<p>The public discussion about the country’s past, present and future therefore leaves out a wide range of people’s voices. What they might say is hard to know, specifically because they don’t engage in political discussions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An adult stands with a child at a voting booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Young people – those of voting age at least – are less likely to see voting as important.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024/1ee5523ecf7441eca7c37e430511fdb0/photo">AP Photo/Michael Dwyer</a></span>
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<h2>Young voter disengagement</h2>
<p>Especially troubling to me is the political disillusionment expressed by young people, who are the most likely group in the country to avoid identifying themselves <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/15/voters-declare-independence-political-parties">as members of one party or the other</a>. People who identify themselves as independents – especially if they don’t lean toward one party or the other – are also likely to lack interest in voting.</p>
<p>Having come of age during an era of high polarization, younger people are less likely to idealize politics and the right to vote. In prior research, my colleagues and I found that younger people worldwide were just as interested in politics as older citizens but were <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/citizens-of-the-world-9780197599389?cc=us&lang=en&">less likely to view voting as a civic duty</a>. Protesting or joining an organization offers social benefits to young people – an opportunity to feel like they are part of something bigger. Voting, by contrast, is perceived as a more solitary act. </p>
<p>If younger American voters aren’t excited about the choices on the ballot, they may be more likely not to vote at all.</p>
<p>In a recent survey I conducted in collaboration with <a href="https://ignitenational.org/gen-z-research">IGNITE National</a>, an organization seeking to bolster young women’s engagement in the political process, we asked Gen Z Americans, adults born after 1996, what drove their disillusionment with American politics. Consistently, Gen Z respondents noted that the candidates appearing on the ballot <a href="https://8226836.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/8226836/Gen%20Z%20Voting%20%26%20Political%20Engagement%20Report%202023.pdf">did not look like them</a>, contributing to their feeling of detachment from the political process. </p>
<p>Barack Obama’s race made 2008 a historic election. Hillary Clinton’s gender made 2016 a historic contest as well. By contrast, 2024 features the <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/arts-culture/3744771-here-are-the-oldest-us-presidents-to-ever-hold-office/">two oldest white men</a> to ever seek the presidency, vying for second terms in office.</p>
<p><iframe id="N7JHB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/N7JHB/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Burnout’s effects on democracy</h2>
<p>Americans have many demands on their time. Between work, family and other activities, many struggle to watch or read the news, fact check what they see on social media or engage in productive political discussions. As a result, most of the American public <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300072754/what-americans-know-about-politics-and-why-it-matters/">is largely unaware of key aspects of important issues</a>, and does not pay attention to the parties’ stances on those issues. </p>
<p>This lack of engagement is dangerous for democracy. Voters who cannot evaluate the merits of contrasting policy positions, or who cannot accurately assign blame and give credit for the state of the American economy, will ultimately fall back on cheap cues such as partisanship to make their choices. </p>
<p>Or they may abstain from politics altogether.</p>
<p>The campaign season offers an opportunity for voters who may be open to persuasion to engage in the political process for a short period of time, become sufficiently informed and make their voices heard. Though there are flaws in the many processes of political campaigning, media coverage and community involvement, the bottom line is simple: Deliberative democracy requires an American public that is willing to deliberate. </p>
<p>If Americans are too burned out to engage enthusiastically and provide feedback to political leaders, then there is little hope that any government could truly reflect the will of the people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared McDonald does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s not just polarization that’s driving voters’ malaise − it’s something else, which carries a stark warning for the health of American democracy.Jared McDonald, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, University of Mary WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222332024-02-21T13:24:18Z2024-02-21T13:24:18ZYoung people are lukewarm about Biden – and giving them more information doesn’t move the needle much<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576872/original/file-20240220-16-qvln0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young voters in Ann Arbor, Mich., fill out applications to cast their ballot in the midterm elections in November 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/zachary-rose-fills-out-an-application-to-cast-his-ballot-news-photo/1244584443?adppopup=true">Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent polling for the November 2024 election shows that President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters, who have traditionally supported Democrats. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/19/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">December 2023 poll</a> showed that 49% of young people supported former President Donald Trump, while just 43% of 18- to 29-year-olds said they preferred Biden. </p>
<p>Biden is even struggling with young people who identify as Democrats. A <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023">Fall 2023 Harvard Kennedy School</a> poll shows that just 62% of Democrats aged 18 to 29 years old said they would vote for Biden in 2024. </p>
<p>Many Democrats are <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4138154-democrats-worry-young-people-souring-on-party/">increasingly anxious</a> that young voters who <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results">supported Biden in 2020</a> will boycott the general election in 2024, support a third-party candidate or <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/24034416/young-voters-biden-trump-gen-z-polling-israel-gaza-economy-2024-election">vote for Trump</a>. </p>
<p>Polls this far from Election Day are <a href="https://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/variable-abs.shtml">notoriously variable</a> and not reliable for predicting election results. Furthermore, some political pundits are asking whether young voters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/upshot/poll-biden-young-voters.html">will return to the Biden coalition</a> once the campaign season heats up and they learn more about the two candidates. </p>
<p>As scholars of <a href="https://neilobrian.com">public opinion</a> and the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J4Vp11wAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">U.S. presidency</a>, we are deeply interested in the prospect of young voters, particularly Democrats, defecting from the Biden coalition. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young, white woman with brown hair wearing shorts and a beige cardigan walks past a bulletin board with flyers on it for vioting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An Emory University student in Atlanta walks past voting information in October 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/young-woman-walks-past-voting-information-flyers-on-the-news-photo/1244204334?adppopup=true">Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Mixed evidence on young voters’ support for Biden</h2>
<p>About <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/">51% of young voters</a>, aged 18 to 29 years old, identify as Democrats. This compares with 35% of these voters who identify as Republicans. In 2020, young voters in this age group made up an <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020#when-and-how-young-people-voted">estimated 17%</a> of the electorate. </p>
<p>In a close election, securing the youth vote will be paramount in order for Biden to win reelection.</p>
<p>We wanted to understand how young voters might change their election pick preferences if they learn more about different topics, such as the economy, likely to feature in this election season. </p>
<p>We recruited 1,418 respondents from across the country to participate in an online survey experiment in December 2023, including 860 people who identify as Democrats.</p>
<p>In this experiment, we exposed respondents to different messages that the Biden campaign might employ, to see if young Democrats could be persuaded back to Biden.</p>
<p>A quarter of the respondents saw information about how <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-inflation-reduction-climate-anniversary-9950f7e814ac71e89eee3f452ab17f71">inflation and</a> <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-unemployment-jobs-inflation-interest-rates-b1c21252024d697765d047a60f41e900">unemployment decreased</a> during the Biden administration. </p>
<p>Another quarter of respondents were given information about Trump’s norm-violating behavior, such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-capitol-riot-probe-turns-focus-trump-allies-extremist-groups-2022-07-12/">encouraging an insurrection</a> at the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021.</p>
<p>The next quarter of respondents were given information about Biden’s and Trump’s positions on abortion, and whether the U.S. should accept immigrants from the Gaza Strip. </p>
<p>The final group of respondents received no information about a particular topic.</p>
<p>In our research, which has yet to be published, we found mixed evidence that undecided young Democrats would be persuaded to vote for Biden based on any new information we shared with them. </p>
<p>Among the people we polled who were given no information, 66% of 18-year-old to 34-year-old Democrats said they would vote for Biden. This roughly tracks with national polling. </p>
<p>Would learning about the strength of the economy boost Biden’s support? </p>
<p>About 69% of young Democrats who read about dropping inflation and unemployment rates said they would vote for Biden, compared with 31% who said they would vote for Trump or another candidate. This reflects a modest increase in support for Biden, compared to people who had no information on this topic. </p>
<p>We then tested whether providing information to voters about the candidates’ policy positions would change support for Biden. </p>
<p>It is possible that voters are just unaware of the candidates’ positions on issues <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/upshot/kamala-harris-biden-voters-polls.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article">and, after getting more information</a>, will change their views. </p>
<p>We found that 71% of respondents who learned about Biden’s and Trump’s policy positions on abortion and Palestinian refugees from Gaza said they would vote for Biden, compared with the 66% who did not read any new information on these topics before deciding their pick. </p>
<p>Finally, we gave people information about Trump’s norm-violating behavior. This actually marginally decreased support for Biden, dropping from the 66% among people who did not have any of this information given to them in the survey to 63% among people who did. This change, though, lacked what social scientists call statistical significance – meaning that we cannot say this difference is not just attributable to chance alone. </p>
<p>Overall, we found that giving young Democrats access to three different pieces of information generally led to small increases in whether they said they would vote for Biden or not. </p>
<p>Next, we asked respondents “How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election?” and how likely they are to vote in the upcoming presidential election. We found that the three different pieces of information each led to a small increase in reported vote intention among young Democrats, but didn’t, on average, increase their enthusiasm about voting. In other words, if young voters feel compelled to vote, they may do so, but without enthusiasm.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Young people sit around a table, and two young people, both wearing white T-shirts, stand near a screen that says 'Canvass training'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abortion rights canvassers gather for a canvass training in Columbus, Ohio, in November 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pro-choice-canvassers-gather-for-a-canvass-training-meeting-news-photo/1766360809?adppopup=true">Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The power of persuasion</h2>
<p>Taken together, these results show little movement among young Democrats. This is particularly striking when compared to older Democrats in our sample. </p>
<p>When presented with information about the strength of the economy, the candidates’ divergent policy positions or Trump’s norm-violating behavior, support for Biden among likely voters who were 55 years old or older and identified as Democrats increased from 73% to around 90%.</p>
<p>These results suggest an uphill battle for the Biden campaign to bring back young voters. Young voters, even if they identify as Democrats, are perhaps less attached to a party, or democratic institutions more generally, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/18/democracy-young-people-voters-trump/">than older voters</a>. This means campaign messages about democratic norms might be less persuasive among younger voters. </p>
<p>On the other hand, there are reasons to expect young voters might return to Biden: The economy is doing well, which <a href="https://news.northeastern.edu/2023/11/06/presidential-election-predictions-polls/">tends to help incumbents</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, partisanship, particularly in this polarizing environment, remains a powerful influence, and may still exert a pull on young Democrats over the campaign.</p>
<p>Democrats, after all, successfully ran on an anti-Trump campaign in the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/">2022 midterm elections</a>, <a href="https://morningconsult.com/exit-polling-live-updates/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTTJGbU9EZ3dNalZtTURZMiIsInQiOiJTOTZTRHBrN0lNWG9IVisxUXhEdUdtcUxYaENlS2tIYlJ1YTZyTzhkNjBQM2o0dWVwZlVad3lxaTk1N0FtelwvMkJDOTdsYWtmVDU5eVVDQjhjcjJLUDBocGFaWjRRalVaXC9paTE1dGhzSmxrYWtjUnlXWEk2cVlDc0xPS1FQZ0RPIn0%3D#section-100">2020 general election</a> and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/midterm-elections-results.html">2018 midterm elections</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While young voters say they would be more likely to vote for Biden after they learn more about the economy and other topics, they did not appear affected by Donald Trump’s norm-defying behavior.Neil O'Brian, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of OregonChandler James, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136992023-09-20T23:08:15Z2023-09-20T23:08:15ZAge, not class, is now the biggest divide in British politics, new research confirms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548881/original/file-20230918-19-xze1xp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=143%2C71%2C5160%2C2385&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Hyejin Kang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Class is the basis of British politics; all else is embellishment and detail.” So wrote <a href="https://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/memoriam-peter-pulzer-1929-2023">Peter Pulzer</a>, the former Gladstone professor of politics at the University of Oxford in the 1960s. Nowadays, however, it is age, not social class, that is the biggest demographic division in Britain’s electoral politics.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/age-and-voting-behaviour-at-the-2019-general-election/">British Election Study</a>, at the 2019 general election, the Conservatives won the support of 56% of those aged 55 and over, but only 24% of those under 35. Conversely, Labour was backed by 54% of those under-35s who cast a vote, but by just 22% of those aged 55 and over. </p>
<p>In contrast, support for Britain’s two main parties among those in working class occupations was little different from that among those in professional and managerial jobs.</p>
<p>But what underpins this age divide? We typically think of Labour as a party that is more “left wing”, more concerned than the Conservatives about inequality and more supportive of “big government”. So does young people’s greater willingness to support Labour mean they are more left wing than their older counterparts? </p>
<p>Are they more concerned about inequality and more inclined to believe that government should be acting to reduce it? And are they more inclined than older voters to want the government to spend and tax more? </p>
<p>These questions are addressed in a chapter in the latest <a href="https://natcen.ac.uk/publications/bsa-40-age-differences">British Social Attitudes report</a>, published by the <a href="https://natcen.ac.uk/">National Centre for Social Research</a>. Based on the 40 years of data the annual BSA survey has collected since it began in 1983, the chapter reveals that while younger people have become more concerned about inequality in recent years, this is not accompanied by greater enthusiasm for more tax and spend.</p>
<p>Since 1986, nearly every BSA survey has regularly presented its respondents with a set of propositions designed to measure how “left” or “right wing” they are on the issue of inequality. People are, for example, asked whether they agree or disagree that “there is one law for the rich and one for the poor”, and “government should redistribute income from the better-off to those who are less well-off”. </p>
<p>Their answers to these and similar statements can be summarised into a scale measure that runs from 0 to 100, where 0 means that someone is very left wing and 100 indicates that they are very right wing.</p>
<h2>Young people shift left</h2>
<p>When the scale was first administered in 1986, there was no difference between the average score of those aged under 35 and those aged 55 or over. Both had a score of 37. </p>
<p>Equally, 30 years later, in 2016, younger people’s average score of 38 was little different from that of 37 among older people. The growth in Labour’s support among younger people that was already in evidence by then was not underpinned by a more left-wing point of view.</p>
<p>However, a gap has emerged during the last three or four years. In the latest BSA survey, conducted towards the end of 2022, young people scored 28 – ten points below the equivalent figure in 2016. In contrast, at 36, the outlook of older people has barely changed at all.</p>
<p>Yet this does not mean that younger people want more taxation and spending. Every year since 1983 BSA has asked people what the government should do if it has to choose between increased taxation and spending on “health, education and social benefits”, reduced taxation and spending, or keeping things as they are. </p>
<p>In the 1980s, younger people were typically more likely than older people to say that taxation and spending should be increased. In 1984, for example, 42% of those aged under 35 expressed that view, compared with just 33% of those over 55.</p>
<p>But since the mid-90s the opposite has been the case. By 2015, 41% of younger people wanted more taxation and spending compared with 49% of older people.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the gap has since widened further. Whereas support for increased taxation and spending has risen to 67% among older people – the highest it has been in the last 40 years – among younger people it is still no more than 43%.</p>
<h2>Lost faith</h2>
<p>So why might have younger people become more concerned about inequality, yet at the same time less supportive of more spending? The answer may well lie in the distinctive economic position in which those in today’s youngest generation find themselves. </p>
<p>The ageing of Britain’s population means that a larger proportion of government spending goes on health and social care from which older people primarily benefit. Meanwhile, while older people are in receipt of relatively generous pensions that have been protected by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-fix-the-pensions-triple-lock-but-still-protect-pensioners-from-high-inflation-186611">triple lock</a>, younger people who have been to university find themselves in effect paying a higher level of “income tax” in order to pay off their <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/376423/uk-student-loan-debt/">student loans</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A young woman looking sadly at a receipt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548906/original/file-20230918-23-d9v13p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548906/original/file-20230918-23-d9v13p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548906/original/file-20230918-23-d9v13p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548906/original/file-20230918-23-d9v13p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548906/original/file-20230918-23-d9v13p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548906/original/file-20230918-23-d9v13p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548906/original/file-20230918-23-d9v13p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For many young people, monthly bills add up to lost hope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/upset-person-holding-receipt-big-price-2015415119">Shutterstock/Goodstudio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, although the pandemic posed a greater threat to the health of older people, it was younger people who were more likely to find their educational and economic <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-peoples-mental-health-deteriorated-the-most-during-the-pandemic-study-finds-143326">lives disrupted</a>, and to have found themselves having to endure lockdown in lower quality accommodation. At the same time, home ownership has become more difficult, not least because so many are spending a significant proportion of their income on rent.</p>
<p>There is, then, good reason why younger people have become more concerned about inequality but seem at the same time to doubt that increased taxation and spending would help them. </p>
<p>The challenge to the parties at the forthcoming election could well be to convince these voters that the next government will offer them a brighter future, rather than add to their woes. But to do that they may well need to be willing to think outside the traditional mindsets associated with the terms “left” and the “right”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213699/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Curtice receives funding from UKRI-ESRC </span></em></p>The latest findings from the British Social Attitudes survey suggest younger voters appear to have little faith that public spending will be directed their way.John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2085362023-06-30T13:09:22Z2023-06-30T13:09:22ZSierra Leone election: voter trust has been shaken, and will need to be regained<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534420/original/file-20230627-19-x4x237.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President of the Electoral Commission of Sierra Leone, Mohamed Konneh announcing partial election results in Freetown on June 26, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Wessels/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Julius Maada Bio, a 59-year-old former soldier, was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/27/africa/maada-bio-reelected-sierra-leone-intl/index.html#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CBy%20the%20powers%20vested%20in,Chief%20Electoral%20Commissioner%20Mohamed%20Konneh.&text=Just%20hours%20after%20the%20results,their%20%E2%80%9Ctrust%20and%20dedication.%E2%80%9D">sworn in</a> for his second and final five-year term as president of Sierra Leone on 27 June. With <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-27/sierra-leonean-president-bio-wins-reelection-with-56-of-votes?srnd=fixed-income#xj4y7vzkg">56%</a> of votes cast in the election on 24 June, Bio was declared winner ahead of his main rival, Samura Kamara, who polled 41%.</em> </p>
<p><em>Kamara rejected the result and international election observers have highlighted some problems with the way votes were counted. There has been relative calm across Sierra Leone since Bio was sworn in. Earlier, the opposition All People’s Congress <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/26/police-fire-tear-gas-at-sierra-leone-opposition-after-vote">alleged</a> that the police had killed one of its supporters by firing live shots into their party offices a day after the polls. Police have <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66030749">denied</a> this.</em> </p>
<p><em>In this interview, Catherine Bolten, Professor of Anthropology and Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, fielded questions on lessons learnt from the poll and the future of democracy in Sierra Leone. As an <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/catherine-bolten-1450652/edit">anthropologist</a>, Bolten studies politics as a social practice, which means analysing how “democracy” manifests in campaigning, elections, and policy-making, and how people imagine democratic processes in their own lives. She has conducted research in Sierra Leone since 2003, and published a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=mB6TeugAAAAJ&citation_for_view=mB6TeugAAAAJ:Se3iqnhoufwC">2016 paper</a> that focused on how the country managed the first election it ran on its own in 2012.</em> </p>
<hr>
<h2>What did you learn from the outcome of this election?</h2>
<p>Sierra Leoneans expect that the election process is potentially corrupt unless there is full transparency in the whole process. This means from the moment the electoral commission is appointed to the selection criteria for the ballot design, the selection and training of poll workers, the invitation to the international community for electoral observers, and every other decision that might affect the outcome. </p>
<p>The public had very <a href="https://www.iri.org/resources/sierra-leone-poll-shows-high-levels-of-trust-in-most-national-institutions-concern-over-economy-and-education/">high levels</a> of trust in the two elections immediately after the civil war, which ended in 2002, because the United Nations was heavily involved. It was <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2012/11/425872">involved </a> in the planning and execution of the 2002 election and, to a lesser degree, the 2007 elections. </p>
<p>The 2012 election was the country’s <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/features/p/democracy/sierra-leone-2012-elections.html">first self-administered election</a> since the war began. The whole population was committed to it being free, fair and without violence. They succeeded. </p>
<p>Since then, bad <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/sierra-leone/democracy-governance-and-human-rights#:%7E:text=Despite%20increasing%20its%20stature%20as,uphold%20the%20rule%20of%20law.">old habits</a> of nepotism, cronyism, and back-room deals have reappeared. Whether corruption is as bad as opposition party members claim is not as important as the perception that the election is corrupt. </p>
<p>If there is any lesson to be learned, it is the necessity of rebuilding public trust in every election by maintaining a transparent process.</p>
<h2>What has changed between 2012 and 2023 to result in the return of nepotism and cronyism?</h2>
<p>2012 may have been a special moment, when the country came together in a concerted effort to ensure that the elections were conducted without violence, with no questions about the legitimacy of the polling, and with full knowledge that the world was watching. </p>
<p>As I wrote in my <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=mB6TeugAAAAJ&citation_for_view=mB6TeugAAAAJ:Se3iqnhoufwC">2016 paper</a>, drastic measures such as restricting freedom of movement, work, association, and even dress in the months and days leading up to the election and on election day were imposed. The citizens complied without complaint, even as these were technically violations of basic human rights. This is because the people were so committed to ensuring a free and fair election. </p>
<p>Once these restrictions were allowed to loosen in succeeding elections, it portended a return to lack of transparency in the process, and thus to the powerful exerting themselves behind the scenes, because they were no longer also committed to these restrictions.</p>
<h2>Who has been responsible for the pre-election violence?</h2>
<p>Any whiff of corruption that could affect the outcome leads to accusations of democratic backsliding. A standard-bearer who considers themselves wronged will call on the party’s followers to “demonstrate”. This is to ensure that those who are potentially corrupt see that others are trying to hold them to account.</p>
<p>Any call for a “peaceful demonstration” is a challenge to the legitimacy of the claims being made by the other side. No political leader accuses their opposition of corruption and calls for “peaceful demonstrations” without knowing that violence will occur, no matter who throws the first stone or fires the first shot. </p>
<p>Rhetoric is powerful, and a hint of grumbling about corruption will fan the flames of violence.</p>
<h2>What factors determine voter turnout?</h2>
<p>There is an <a href="https://www.thesierraleonetelegraph.com/sierra-leoneans-in-europe-protesting-against-president-bio-at-the-london-black-in-the-park/">old saying</a> in Sierra Leone politics: “same taxi, different driver”. It describes presidential candidates promising change when they get into office. The new president will do essentially what the last president did, with minor variations. </p>
<p>People are also well aware that their leaders are, by and large, <a href="https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/SLE">corrupt</a>. There is plenty of <a href="https://stopillegalfishing.com/press-links/sierra-leone-is-losing-over-one-hundred-million-dollars-from-its-fishing-industry/">evidence</a> for this, from the fisheries ministry officials turning a blind eye to illegal fishing by Chinese trawlers, to the “<a href="https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/SLE">trickle-down corruption</a>” that occurs in regular public life because public servants such as police officers and teachers are not being paid, and so demand bribes and tips from the community. This “everyday corruption” is blamed firmly on the cabinet ministers. The <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/arts-culture/music/meet-sierra-leone-s-people-s-popstar-emmerson-bockarie-1.717088">local artist Emerson</a>, for example, consistently lambasts politicians in his music.</p>
<p>This does not dissuade people from turning out in numbers to cast votes for their preferred candidate. They have a sense of two things: one which is extremely likely, and the other which might happen. </p>
<p>What’s extremely likely is that if their ethnic or preferred candidate does not win, their region and their ethnic people will be neglected or harassed by the ruling party, or they will simply “stand still” and receive no development. They feel voting is the only real power they have to be a part of any decision-making process, and so turnout is consistently high.</p>
<p>What might happen is that, if their candidate wins, they will they reap the benefits of foreign direct investment, NGO relief, humanitarian distribution and infrastructure. </p>
<p>So they turn out to vote for the candidate who will hurt them the least, and might actually help them.</p>
<h2>What does the 2023 election outcome portend for democracy?</h2>
<p>It is clear that the fact that a candidate is declared a winner and then immediately sworn in does not protect the country from violence or democratic backsliding. </p>
<p>There may still be violence, and there may be a crackdown on protest, which starts down a dangerous road to authoritarianism or potentially wider violence. </p>
<p>I am not sure how this will affect the future of democracy in Sierra Leone. But I believe that the international community has a duty to send observers, if only to let a country’s citizens know that their election matters, and that they are part of the foundation of the international cause of democracy. </p>
<p>Backsliding anywhere is dangerous, and no election is too small to ignore. I hope that the democratic state in Sierra Leone holds up for the next five years, in order for this repair to happen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208536/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Bolten receives funding from the United States Institute for Peace, the IIE Fulbright Grant (USA), and the IIE David Boren Grant.</span></em></p>Sierra Leone needs to rebuild public trust in its election by maintaining a completely transparent process.Catherine Bolten, Professor of Anthropology and Peace Studies, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1958962022-12-19T18:13:45Z2022-12-19T18:13:45ZYoung people around the world can save democracy — but they need our help<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501161/original/file-20221214-15841-2wlm5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5754%2C3721&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A youth cries during the funeral procession of a child who was killed during protests against new President Dina Boluarte in Andahuaylas, Peru, on Dec. 12, 2022, after what some believe was a coup to illegally oust her predecessor.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Franklin Briceno)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A photograph recently circulated on social media purportedly showing two Chinese professors in Shanghai standing between a squad of police officers and students protesting the government’s zero-COVID policies.</p>
<p>That morning, when I met my class for the course I teach on political repression, a Chinese student remarked: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre, Chinese students never dared to demand democracy, respect for human rights, freedom of speech, freedom to assemble and freedom of the press. Something new is happening. I wish we had brave adults like the two professors supporting us to fight for democracy and for a better future.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Where are those brave adults supporting the struggle of young people to revive democracy? How in my professorial role can I support <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/beijing-drops-some-covid-tests-as-capital-readies-itself-for-life-again">students from repressive regimes who are risking it all to achieve democracy</a>? What kind of support should be offered to young people fighting these battles in 2023 — and well beyond?</p>
<h2>Democracy under threat</h2>
<p>In every region of the world, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-populist-challenge-to-liberal-democracy/">liberal democracy is threatened</a>. In 2018, Michael J. Abramowitz, president of the global Freedom House think tank, <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/democracy-crisis">noted that democracy is in crisis</a>. He wrote: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Political rights and civil liberties around the world deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterized by emboldened autocratic, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>According to the Swedish research institute <a href="https://v-dem.net/media/publications/dr_2022.pdf">V-Dem’s</a> 2022 report, democracies are deteriorating and tilting into dictatorships at the fastest rate in 50 years.</p>
<p>The organization notes that only about 13 per cent of the global population live in liberal democracies, while <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule">Freedom House’s</a> approximation is 20 per cent. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young woman shouts while holding a sign that reads 'we're not extremists, we're extremely tired'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501165/original/file-20221214-14140-ti4f2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Sri Lankan youth shout anti-government slogans during a protest demanding president Gotabaya Rajapaksa resign in Colombo, Sri Lanka, in April 2022. He was later ousted in a popular uprising.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are thought to be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/europe/how-autocrats-can-triumph-in-democratic-countries.html">three phases</a> of democratic decline over the last 100 years. One was in the 1920s, another in the 1960s and now we’re in what <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029">some scholars</a> have dubbed “a third wave of autocratization,” arguing:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Once in power, unscrupulous leaders can sometimes manipulate the political environment to their own benefit, making it more likely that they will be victorious in future contests. By winning those elections, they gain the stamp of democratic legitimacy — even for actions that ultimately undermine democratic norms.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Authoritarian regimes are subtly entrenching their power domestically and abroad by rejecting popular demands for good governance, adherence to the rule of law, institutional independence, human rights and freedoms. </p>
<p>Some of the nations <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/veto-power-countries">with veto power at the United Nations</a>, most notably <a href="https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/62-special-issue/chinas-assertive-authoritarianism/">China</a> and <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/04/19/putin-s-war-has-moved-russia-from-authoritarianism-to-hybrid-totalitarianism-pub-86921">Russia</a>, are turning out to be domestic and international aggressors. They violate human rights with impunity because they control global political systems that could otherwise prosecute them. </p>
<p>While for a long time <a href="https://english.elpais.com/usa/2022-01-25/noam-chomsky-american-democracy-is-in-very-serious-danger.html">the United States</a> was the beacon of democracy, American democracy is now in danger.</p>
<p>In many countries, democracy is now limited to casting votes in elections that are often rigged. Technology has complicated the political landscape, and is used to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2017/11/30/how-to-rig-an-election/">fix votes</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/jul/18/what-is-pegasus-spyware-and-how-does-it-hack-phones">put civilians under surveillance</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-rigged-elections-look-nothing-like-the-us-election-they-have-immediate-unquestioned-results-there-149710">Russia's rigged elections look nothing like the US election – they have immediate, unquestioned results there</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Youth fight for democracy around the world</h2>
<p>For centuries, politics and economics have largely been the purview of elite aging men and a few women. These elites have often assumed young people are <a href="https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/young-peoples-civic-and-political-engagement-and-global-citizenship">nonpolitical and incapable of civic and political engagement</a>.</p>
<p>But youth are fighting for democracy around the world, in countries that include China, Russia, Belarus, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, India, Hungary, Turkey, Uganda, Sudan, Iran, Chile, Peru, Palestine, Myanmar, Malaysia, Thailand, Tunisia, Kuwait, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the United States, to name just a few.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, they lack support. The absence is most keenly felt and conspicuous in underdeveloped countries where political regimes use resources and institutional violence via police forces and military <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3195492/hong-kong-protests-young-people-jailed-over-unrest-should">to incarcerate</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/torture-abducted-uganda-crackdown-museveni">torture and even kill</a> young protesters.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/iran-executes-first-protester-as-human-rights-abuses-come-under-international-scrutiny-195699">Iran executes first protester as human rights abuses come under international scrutiny</a>
</strong>
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<p>Nonetheless, by using social media to mobilize nationwide protests, as well as <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/03/03/699797300/the-song-capturing-the-heart-of-sudans-protest-movement">music</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DailyMonitor/videos/nrm-supporters-dancing-to-bobi-wines-kasukali-keko-song-during-protest-in-entebb/240704337500570/">dance</a> in some places, young people are resisting state repression and decrying human rights violations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young Black people are seen protesting in the streets." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501124/original/file-20221214-13342-u3idim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young Sudanese demonstrators march in Khartoum, Sudan, in December 2022 to protest a deal signed between the country’s main pro-democracy group and its ruling generals, who seized power in an October 2021 coup.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Marwan Ali)</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Supporting the fight for democracy</h2>
<p>Democracy has long been regarded as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/democracy/The-spread-of-democracy-in-the-20th-century">the political system that transformed the world</a>. Today, we urgently need healthy democracies to resolve pressing domestic and global issues, including wars, poverty, food insecurity and climate change. </p>
<p>Nelson Mandela, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Long-Walk-to-Freedom">in his iconic autobiography <em>Long Walk to Freedom</em></a>, noted how in African democracy, community chiefs listened to everyone until they came to a consensus, unlike some western democracies, where the winners take all. </p>
<p>Today, it’s important to engage in that kind of dialogue with young people around the world to determine appropriate forms of democracy. Any form of governance should be rooted in local cultures. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protesters wearing masks march while holding up blank pieces of paper." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C8190%2C5419&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501066/original/file-20221214-8612-5pwq8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young people hold up blank papers and chant slogans as they protest in Beijing in November 2022 against strict measures to contain an outbreak of COVID-19. The blank paper allows protesters to avoid arrest or censorship in state media.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many youth lack political experience and knowledge. They need to be guided and empowered with civic and political education. But we must also listen to them.</p>
<p>And that’s not all. The tech giants that manipulate their platforms and violate the privacy of their users in ways that help dictators must be regulated.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/social-media-regulation-why-we-must-ensure-it-is-democratic-and-inclusive-179819">Social media regulation: why we must ensure it is democratic and inclusive</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Judicial and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12448">financial penalties</a> must be imposed on any officials who take their countries backwards and into autocracy, and we must demand a commitment to the rule of law by all nations.</p>
<p>If we don’t support youth’s struggle for democracy, there’s little chance of a peaceful, secure, sustainably developed and environmentally friendly future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195896/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evelyn Namakula receives funding from SSHRC</span></em></p>If we don’t support youth’s struggle for democracy, there’s little chance of a peaceful, secure, sustainably developed and environmentally friendly future.Evelyn Namakula Mayanja, Assistant Professor, Interdisciplinary Studies, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1949472022-11-23T16:20:28Z2022-11-23T16:20:28ZUS midterms: why gen Z and millennials came out to vote and why it marks a generational shift<p>An exceptionally high turnout of young voters swung key state battles in favour of the Democrats in the 2022 US midterms. It’s estimated that more than a quarter of registered voters aged between 18 and 29 years of age <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/millions-youth-cast-ballots-decide-key-2022-races">cast a ballot</a> in elections that saw the Democrats maintain control of the Senate and minimise Republican gains in the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>President Joe Biden thanked “the young people of this nation” for turning out in <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/11/09/remarks-by-president-biden-in-press-conference-8/">what he called</a> “historic numbers”. <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center#youth-turnout-second-highest-in-last-three-decades">Exit poll data</a> has indicated that 27% of young people voted, the second highest percentage in in the last thirty years, beaten only by the record of 31% set during the <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/714776?casa_token=q8jniz5AyQsAAAAA%3AJ9Q_1RT4vlo2uF2JSoylSPVIr7dz3Or5G0aZ4GgaEADKpfQdvQRp_VNPQ3wSqvLP0-4KUObCb2E">2018 midterms</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center#youth-turnout-second-highest-in-last-three-decades">Exit poll analysis</a> by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, known as Circle, indicates that youth voter turnout was particularly high in battleground states such as Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. </p>
<p><a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/young-voters-decided-georgia-senate-race-shaped-other-close-elections">In Arizona</a>, Democrat Katie Hobbs won her governor’s race by 20,000 votes, with around 60,000 more young people voting for Hobbs than her rival Kari Lake. While <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/young-voters-decided-georgia-senate-race-shaped-other-close-elections">in Wisconsin</a>, 79,000 more young voters chose Democratic governor Tony Evers and contributed towards his victory of 89,000 votes – 88% of the margin of his victory – over Republican candidate Tim Michels.</p>
<h2>‘They’re voting more’</h2>
<p>The turnout was an illustration that this is the most politically engaged cohort of youth voters in recent history. Ruby Belle Booth, Circle’s elections coordinator, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/10/1135810302/turnout-among-young-voters-was-the-second-highest-for-a-midterm-in-past-30-years">told US radio station NPR</a> the 2022 midterms represented “high civic engagement” among younger voters. </p>
<p>This assessment was echoed by Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, president of NextGen, a youth advocacy non-profit and political action committee, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/11/young-voters-us-midterms-democratic-youth">said</a>: “They’re voting more. They’re participating in protests. They are more avid readers of politics and social issues.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496776/original/file-20221122-14-ysjbb4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing estimation of young people turnout in US midterm elections" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496776/original/file-20221122-14-ysjbb4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496776/original/file-20221122-14-ysjbb4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496776/original/file-20221122-14-ysjbb4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496776/original/file-20221122-14-ysjbb4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496776/original/file-20221122-14-ysjbb4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496776/original/file-20221122-14-ysjbb4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496776/original/file-20221122-14-ysjbb4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>And when young voters did reach the polls they voted overwhelmingly for Democrat candidates across the country. <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/3730922-researchers-say-2022-election-had-second-highest-young-voter-turnout-in-last-30-years/">According to reports</a>, 63% of 18- to 29- year olds voted Democrat and 35% voted Republican in the House of Representatives elections. Voters between 30 and 44 split their vote between the two parties, while older voters tended to vote Republican.</p>
<h2>Young black and Latino voters went Democrat</h2>
<p>Exit polls also showed that ethnicity also played a key part in determining who to vote for. Black young people voted almost unanimously for the Democrats, while 67% of Latinos in this age group also chose them over the Republicans. This has added significance when read alongside the <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/3730922-researchers-say-2022-election-had-second-highest-young-voter-turnout-in-last-30-years/">number</a> of newly eligible young voters for the 2022 elections: 2 million are Latino and 1.2 million are black out of a total of 8 million new voters.</p>
<p>Despite having a number of Latino Republican candidates across the country, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/shift-latino-vote-republican-gains-midterm-elections/">the expectation</a> that Latino voters would move to the right did not occur among young people. There was <a href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/chart-how-us-latinos-voted-2022-midterm-election">some evidence</a> of this among older voters although it varies state by state.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496778/original/file-20221122-11-lvkey4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing estimation of young people turnout in US midterm elections for the House of Representatives by race/ethnicity" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496778/original/file-20221122-11-lvkey4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496778/original/file-20221122-11-lvkey4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496778/original/file-20221122-11-lvkey4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496778/original/file-20221122-11-lvkey4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496778/original/file-20221122-11-lvkey4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496778/original/file-20221122-11-lvkey4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496778/original/file-20221122-11-lvkey4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>In Texas, 53% of those aged 65 and over voted Democrat, while in Florida 64% voted Republican. In both states, however, those aged 18-29 preferred Democrat candidates: 56% in Florida and 76% in Texas. There is not a single trend for Latino voters, but <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/there-is-no-one-story-about-latino-voters">experts say</a> that this is consistent with historic Hispanic voting patterns.</p>
<h2>Abortion rights a key issue</h2>
<p>While climate change and gun violence <a href="https://www.wgbh.org/news/local-news/2022/11/11/youth-voter-turnout-soared-in-the-2022-midterms-how-did-it-impact-the-election">have been cited</a> as key concerns for young voters, <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/abortion-election-how-youth-prioritized-and-voted-based-issues">some researchers believe</a> it was the issue of abortion rights that to have led to many voters casting a ballot this time round. </p>
<p>The supreme court’s <a href="https://reproductiverights.org/case/scotus-mississippi-abortion-ban/">decided earlier this year</a> to overturn the historic 1973 Roe v Wade ruling and the constitutional right to abortion it created. <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center#abortion-was-young-voters'-top-issue-in-2022">Exit poll data</a> concerning the issues illustrate that this decision has prompted young voters to take to the polls, and they were the only age group to cite abortion as the major issue.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496779/original/file-20221122-15-1h6lzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing estimation of turnout in US midterm elections by age and issue" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496779/original/file-20221122-15-1h6lzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496779/original/file-20221122-15-1h6lzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496779/original/file-20221122-15-1h6lzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496779/original/file-20221122-15-1h6lzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496779/original/file-20221122-15-1h6lzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496779/original/file-20221122-15-1h6lzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496779/original/file-20221122-15-1h6lzj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>In addition to the congressional elections, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7cd9a338-498d-4b27-bcb0-42e6d3b56080">reports show</a> that young voters turned out in large numbers to vote in state-wide referendum on abortion rights, minimum wage rates and voting rights. This may have contributed towards the failure of the forecast red wave of Republican victories <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/united-states/article/2022/11/17/youth-vote-blocked-a-red-wave-in-the-us-midterms-exit-polls-show_6004671_133.html">to materialise</a>.</p>
<h2>Democrats courted the young</h2>
<p>Another reason for such a high turnout among young voters could be the significant activity and record <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/11/03/spending-in-americas-midterms-is-breaking-records">investment in key states</a> by Democrats. </p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-donald-trump-pennsylvania-33ea6605d162202919326b732a2b7880">In Pennsylvania</a>, Democrats gained votes in the suburbs and outperformed Biden’s 2020 campaign, particularly in rural areas. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/11/young-voters-us-midterms-democratic-youth">According to Ramirez</a>, engaging with 2.1 million youth voters in the state helped create Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman’s surprise victory over television personality Dr Oz.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-republican-bubble-how-pollsters-and-pundits-got-the-us-midterms-so-wrong-194684">A Republican bubble? How pollsters and pundits got the US midterms so wrong</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/student-loan-forgiveness-brought-gen-z-to-polls-midterms-2022-11?r=US&IR=T">Speculation remains</a> as to what extent Biden’s cancelling of student debt had in voter support for the Democrats. It may have helped but this is unclear. </p>
<p>Future support may be influenced by the Donald Trump-appointed US district judge in Texas, Mark Pittman, who <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/politics/biden-student-loan-forgiveness-struck-down/index.html">declared the programme illegal</a>, bringing the programme to a nationwide standstill. It may take months for the supreme court to decide on the Biden administration’s appeal on the ruling.</p>
<h2>A generational shift?</h2>
<p>John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/19/opinion/youth-vote-midterm-election.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytopinion">argues</a> that gen Z voters have emerged as an influential and active voting bloc. The Democrats, he believes, would do well to seek the vote of the 18–29 voters as “Gen Z and Millennial voters will account for nearly 40% of votes” at the 2024 election.</p>
<p>Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez agrees with Volpe’s assessment. She arguies that the US is beginning to see result of what <a href="https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1590369271125008385?s=20&t=AnD6Ae_0FnaOjXcFtHuUVQ">she calls</a> a “generational shift” in American politics. </p>
<p>If the current trend in youth voter turnout persists, the 2024 election victory might be decided by their support. Republican stalwarts’ <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/08/29/nation/ted-cruz-blasted-after-calling-those-who-would-benefit-student-loan-relief-slacker-baristas/">criticism</a> of Democrats attempts to woo young voters, such as that of Senator Ted Cruz, has done nothing but indicate they are out of touch with the gen Z-millennial bloc.</p>
<p>Democrats hold a clear advantage with the young voters of today and that could prove to be significant, not just to their election chances in 2024, but also as influence on the Democratic party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194947/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Gen Z and millennial voters will account for nearly 40% of votes at the 2024 election, reports suggest.Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923142022-10-25T19:19:26Z2022-10-25T19:19:26ZYoung voters are more likely to skip midterm elections than presidential races<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490438/original/file-20221018-9241-w6h23b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How many people vote matters, but so does their age.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voters-line-up-to-put-their-ballot-in-the-voting-machine-news-photo/1243198415">Scott Eisen/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Midterm elections typically have lower voter turnout than presidential elections, but there is another crucial difference beyond just how many people vote: how old they are. </p>
<p>If past turnout patterns hold in 2022’s midterm election, most demographic groups will be represented as much as they are in presidential elections, with one major exception. People <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/popest/2020-demographic-analysis-tables.html">ages 18 to 29 represent 16%</a> of the total U.S. population. But they will be a smaller proportion of voters in November.</p>
<p>That’s a key finding of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1XMWY78AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my</a> research with political science collaborators <a href="https://www.brianhamel.me">Brian Hamel</a> and <a href="https://as.nyu.edu/faculty/jonathan-nagler.html">Jonathan Nagler</a>.</p>
<p>We wondered whether midterm elections are, because of their lower voter turnouts, less representative than presidential elections. For our initial findings, we compared the share of votes cast by different demographic groups in every midterm from 1974 to 2018 and those groups’ vote shares in presidential elections from 1972 through 2016. </p>
<p>During that period, people ages 18 to 29 cast 17% of the ballots in presidential races but just 12.8% of the votes in midterm elections, a drop of 4.2 percentage points. By contrast, the share of voters over the age of 45 rises almost 6 percentage points in midterm election years over their level in presidential elections.</p>
<p>When we analyzed differences in the share of voters by race, income and education levels, we found nearly equal levels of vote shares for these groups in both midterm and presidential elections. Yes, turnout is lower in all these midterms compared with presidential elections. But the representation of different voter groups is about the same – except for age. </p>
<p><iframe id="X4y3P" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/X4y3P/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Winners matter, but so do voters</h2>
<p>This representation difference is important. The winners of a nonpresidential election are determined by who gets the most votes. But research shows that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-071108">policies that winning elected officials pursue</a> are determined in part by who voted for them. If younger people are underrepresented in midterm elections, then their policy views will also be underrepresented when winning midterm candidates vote on important issues.</p>
<p>If younger and older citizens supported the same policies, then underrepresentation of younger voters in the vote share wouldn’t matter. But people of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/03/01/the-generation-gap-in-american-politics/">different ages often have different views</a> on key issues.</p>
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<p>These age-based differences are also evident in policy views. Older Americans tend to report <a href="https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZSBZ7K">greater opposition to abortion rights</a> and less support for universal government-run health care.</p>
<p>At the most basic level, the age differences involve party affiliation. The <a href="https://cces.gov.harvard.edu">Cooperative Election Study</a> is a scholarly national public opinion survey conducted regularly since 2006. In its survey about the 2018 midterm election, younger voters were found to identify <a href="https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZSBZ7K">significantly more often as Democratic</a> than Republican, while older voters are much more likely to identify with the Republican Party.</p>
<p>So if younger voters are underrepresented in the November 2022 elections, more Republicans may be elected, as well as candidates less likely to reflect younger citizens’ views on key issues.</p>
<p><iframe id="CkKEU" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CkKEU/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Overall turnout can mask differences</h2>
<p>With crucial issues like inflation, racial and economic equity, climate change and abortion rights all factors in the campaign, and a large number of competitive districts, some pundits are projecting that overall turnout <a href="https://rollcall.com/2022/09/21/midterm-elections-could-set-another-turnout-record-this-year/">may even surpass 2018’s record of 50.1%</a> of eligible voters.</p>
<p>But even if that happens, record high turnout does not guarantee that younger voters will be better represented. In 2018, for instance, younger voters turned out in larger numbers but <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2019/02/11/yes-young-people-voted-at-higher-rates-in-2018-but-so-did-every-age-group/">were still underrepresented</a> because other age groups also turned out in larger numbers.</p>
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<p>It’s possible that 2022 could be different. It is true that <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/spring-2021-harvard-youth-poll">more younger people report being politically involved</a> now than in years past. But they also are less likely to have voted previously and may need to deal with <a href="https://www.thirdway.org/interview/duke-universitys-dr-sunshine-hillygus-on-making-young-voters">legal and bureaucratic registration requirements</a> that older voters have already handled.</p>
<p>As in many previous midterm elections, efforts to mobilize young voters are underway, including initiatives on college campuses and a <a href="https://www.studentvoteresearchnetwork.org">broader network of nonpartisan organizations</a> actively mobilizing younger citizens’ turnout. That may help younger voters understand their potential power, although in past elections it hasn’t led young voters to turn out in enough numbers to narrow the gap with older voters’ turnout.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://theconversation.com/local-election-offices-often-are-missing-on-social-media-and-the-information-they-do-post-often-gets-ignored-184359">newer type of mobilization activity</a> that might – whether intentionally or otherwise – target young people more than established voters is increasing <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/national-voter-education-week/">social media outreach by election administrators’</a> providing details on the local voting requirements.</p>
<p>Perhaps this newer mix of mobilization approaches, along with high salience of issues of special importance to younger citizens, may help them to overcome the steeper costs they must bear to have their voices heard – and to have more of their votes counted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jan Leighley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Americans’ political affiliations and views on key issues vary a lot by age. When fewer young people vote, winning candidates and policies may not reflect their views.Jan Leighley, Professor of Government, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1925592022-10-25T12:29:11Z2022-10-25T12:29:11ZHow gender, race, age and voter ID laws affect whether a voter actually casts a ballot<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490443/original/file-20221018-4769-515dlf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4649%2C3092&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Women are more likely to vote than men, but white women have different voting tendencies than women of color.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/incumbent-democratic-senate-candidate-u-s-sen-maggie-hassan-news-photo/1243194351">Scott Eisen/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Who shows up to cast a ballot and who is allowed to mark a ballot and have it counted will determine which candidates take office and what issues they focus on.</p>
<p>The Conversation asked three scholars of <a href="https://www.sciline.org/elections/voter-turnout/#video-transcript">different aspects of voter turnout</a> for their insights as the election approaches.</p>
<h2>More women vote, and white women vote differently</h2>
<p><strong>Jane Junn, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences</strong></p>
<p>As the 2022 midterm elections approach, and in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/06/the-supreme-court-overturns-roe-v-wade/">overturning Roe v. Wade</a>, new attention is focused on the role of women voters in U.S. elections. Regarding their turnout, three facts are important to keep in mind. </p>
<p>First, women outnumber men in the electorate. In the 2020 presidential election, <a href="https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/voters/gender-differences-voter-turnout#GGN">women made up 53.1% of voters</a> compared with 46.9% of men. This is a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/18/men-and-women-in-the-u-s-continue-to-differ-in-voter-turnout-rate-party-identification/">consistent pattern over decades</a>.</p>
<p>Second, the gender gap is also a race gap. Women are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/18/men-and-women-in-the-u-s-continue-to-differ-in-voter-turnout-rate-party-identification/">more likely to support Democratic candidates</a> than men, but there are racial and ethnic differences in that overall trend. While Black, Latina, Asian American and other women voters of color are <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/12/02/how-black-women-organized-voters-secure-joe-bidens-victory-column/6475054002/">strong supporters of Democrats</a>, most white female voters have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/27/white-women-vote-republican-get-used-it-democrats/">consistently supported Republican Party candidates</a>. </p>
<p>For example, in 2020, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/">53% of white women voted for Donald Trump</a> – compared with 46% who supported President Joe Biden. </p>
<p>Third, every election has a unique electorate. So it’s important to distinguish between voter turnout, where mobilization is key, and the patterns of partisan candidate choice. National patterns of voting in presidential elections are different from state and local election trends. And the contours of the voting public change over time, as young people turn 18 and new citizens register to vote.</p>
<h2>Young voter turnout is low</h2>
<p><strong>John Holbein, University of Virginia</strong></p>
<p>The United States has some of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/upshot/youth-voting-2020-election.html">lowest rates of youth voter turnout</a> in the world. That’s despite the fact that a dominant majority of young people 18 to 24 years old <a href="https://electionstudies.org/resources/anes-guide/">care about politics and public affairs</a> and want to participate in politics.</p>
<p>As my collaborator, political scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=znMJcvwAAAAJ">D. Sunshine Hillygus</a>, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dGUCrakAAAAJ">I</a> describe in our book “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/making-young-voters/D8A982E9E7C9DAAAE3DF9685F1DFC037">Making Young Voters</a>,” many young people find the process of registering and voting too complex. </p>
<p>There are two ways to address this problem. The first is to revamp civics education to teach young people the skills they need to overcome voting obstacles. The <a href="https://www.mathematica.org/publications/can-charter-schools-boost-civic-participation-the-impact-of-democracy-prep-public-schools-on-voting">Democracy Prep Charter School Network</a> is a group of schools that structures students’ <a href="https://www.democracyprep.org/about/">entire educational experience</a> around “educating responsible citizen scholars for success in the college of their choice and a life of active citizenship.” </p>
<p>The other way is to reform laws to make registration easier and less complex, such as enabling <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/electronic-or-online-voter-registration.aspx">online registration</a>, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/preregistration-for-young-voters.aspx">preregistration of 16- and 17-year-olds</a> and <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/same-day-registration.aspx">same-day registration and voting</a>. </p>
<p>Both approaches meaningfully increase youth turnout and would help <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/making-young-voters/D8A982E9E7C9DAAAE3DF9685F1DFC037">the next generation of young voters</a>.</p>
<h2>Voter ID laws affect turnout unequally</h2>
<p><strong>Nazita Lajevardi, Michigan State University</strong></p>
<p>In 35 states, voters must <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx">provide some form of physical identification</a> when they arrive to cast a ballot. In eight of those states, the strictest rules apply, typically requiring voters who arrive without a proper photo ID to <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx">take additional action, such as bring one to the polling place later in the day</a>, before their vote will be counted.</p>
<p>These laws make it more difficult for all people to vote, but do so unequally. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X18810012">Black and other voters of color are less likely</a> than whites to be able to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/rep.2022.1">afford the material burdens</a> of securing qualifying identification, such as even getting to a motor vehicles office to attain the identification required to vote.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/688343">strictest forms</a> of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/716282">these laws</a> appear to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/turnout-gap/1B79B19C880A93C462FD1DF22F65DD15">disproportionately affect</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2018.0536">minority</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0731121420966620">voter</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2020.1773280">turnout</a>. </p>
<p>Further, research shows that minorities are <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/oklrv66&div=5&id=&page=">more likely than whites</a> to be asked to actually present their ID at the polls.</p>
<p>And finally, even if voter ID laws are repealed, studies show that their effects last: People who were less likely to have proper ID still don’t show up, even if they don’t need those IDs anymore. That signals voters <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/abs/durable-differential-deterrent-effects-of-strict-photo-identification-laws/E97B3308FDA75972A6374EDCD26333BF">remain confused</a> about whether they are allowed to vote, even when the law is clear that they can.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Holbein receives funding from the National Science Foundation</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Junn and Nazita Lajevardi do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Every citizen has the right to vote. But various characteristics and legal requirements affect how likely any one person is to actually cast a ballot.Jane Junn, USC Associates Chair in Social Sciences; Professor of Political Science and Gender and Sexuality Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesJohn Holbein, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education, University of VirginiaNazita Lajevardi, Associate Professor of Political Science, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1892042022-09-20T17:16:11Z2022-09-20T17:16:11ZWhat’s ‘deliberative’ democracy? Research in Nepal shows it could spur global youth voting<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484338/original/file-20220913-4780-xlylo8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C5997%2C3998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people prioritize issues in preparation for a political debate in Lalitpur, Nepal. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tom O'Neill</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After local elections in Nepal earlier this year, the <em>Kathmandu Post</em> expressed some alarm that <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/national/2022/05/15/nepalis-in-general-love-to-vote-why-is-turnout-low-then-disenchantment">Nepalis were losing interest in voting</a>. </p>
<p>Across the country, election participation fell by 10 percentage points, from 74 per cent in 2017 to 64 per cent in 2022.</p>
<p>We in Canada should envy even the lower figure as similar elections here — <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-records-lowest-voter-turnout-in-election-history-1.5931440">Ontario’s June 2022 election, in particular</a> — drew less than half of the voting populace. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2017.22106">Voter apathy is a global phenomenon</a> and is a significant threat to democracy. Apathetic voters make it easier for autocrats and powerful interest groups to cynically manipulate election results.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1531200491945766913"}"></div></p>
<p>Youth political apathy indicates distrust in contemporary political culture.</p>
<p>German sociologist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2015.03.001">Karl Mannheim</a> once argued that young people must adapt the social institutions of the past to the contemporary realities they are born into. </p>
<p>But youth around the world are contending with issues today that their parents barely encountered, including precarious labour markets, extended demand for higher education, globalizing technologies and shifting gender relations. They are understandably questioning how aging democratic institutions are relevant to their needs.</p>
<p>Nepal is a new democracy, and those institutions were won after <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2008/4/8/timeline-of-nepals-civil-war-2">decades of civil war and political struggle</a>. That’s why Nepalis participate in their elections at levels that put most of the rest of the democratic world to shame. But voting is not all there is to democracy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a colourful fez and wearing a mask pushes a ruler inside a ballot box," src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7391%2C4160&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484186/original/file-20220913-26-k8vjfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An election worker uses a ruler to make space inside the ballot box during local level elections in Kathmandu, Nepal, in May 2022. Nepalese people voted nationwide to elect representatives of municipalities and village development committees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Niranjan Shrestha)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Citizens make decisions</h2>
<p>In a representative democracy, voters choose which politician or political party will make decisions about contemporary realities on their behalf. Politicians and political parties have a great deal of power to define what those realities are and how they should be addressed. </p>
<p>Contesting and corrupting that power has become a central focus in many democracies. But what gets lost is the deliberative potential of democracy, in which citizens debate contemporary issues among themselves so that the decisions they make together carry more weight and are more broadly legitimate.</p>
<p><a href="https://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/himalaya/vol39/iss2/6/">As a professor of youth studies, I have been researching political engagement</a> with a team of Nepali youth activists for the past decade. We took the idea of deliberative democracy to young Nepalis through a series of youth assemblies held across the country in 2018 and 2019. </p>
<p>In deliberative assemblies, also known as “mini-publics,” a group of citizens selected to accurately reflect the diversity of the population is assigned the task of deliberating a contemporary issue. They then craft a common position that is used to inform decisions made by their political representatives.</p>
<p>Deliberative assemblies have been used around the world to address issues like participatory budgeting (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329201029001003">in Porto Alegre, Brazil</a>), constitutional reform (<a href="https://www.citizensassembly.ie/en/dublin-assembly/about/about-dublin-ca.html">in Ireland</a>) and electoral reform (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592713000674">in British Columbia</a>).</p>
<p>Our youth assemblies were designed to reflect Nepal’s diversity. More than 200 youths participated, and were drawn from the <em>Brahmin-Chetris</em> castes, the traditional political elites of the country; the <em>Adivasi Janajati</em>, Nepal’s Indigenous and ethnic groups; the <em>Madhesi</em>, the culturally and linguistically distinct peoples that inhabit the plains that border India; and the <em>Dalits</em>, or “untouchable” castes that have for centuries been subjected to menial labour and debt bondage. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three young women dressed in colourful Indigenous garb smile at the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484202/original/file-20220913-14-wguk65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young Indigenous people of Nepal celebrate at the Ubhauli festival in Kathmandu, Nepal, in May 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Heated debates</h2>
<p>There was also an even balance between men and women, and participants included those who identified as LGTBQ or who had disabilities, two communities that have had little recognition in the country.</p>
<p>During the assemblies, participants were tasked with composing a collective declaration that identified five priorities for Nepal’s political leadership to address. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two grey-haired men, one wearing a fez, shake hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484204/original/file-20220913-12-1r22zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba shakes hands with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in New Delhi, India, in April 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manish Swarup)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The debates that led to these declarations were contentious and often heated, showing that Nepali youth had many different visions about how to define and address Nepal’s contemporary problems. There was consensus, however, on the need for broader equality and the reform of Nepal’s political culture, which is dominated by powerful, high-caste males and riddled with nepotism.</p>
<p>These declarations alone would have limited value if there were no uptake by political decision-makers. But using deliberative mini-publics as a model, youth delegates presented their declarations to a panel of political leaders from all three levels of Nepal’s government. </p>
<p>Deliberative democracy, however, is not yet a feature of Nepal’s political culture. Leaders are more familiar with mobilizing youth for political action than they are with actually heeding young people. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-lowering-the-voting-age-in-canada-is-such-a-good-idea-180108">Why lowering the voting age in Canada is such a good idea</a>
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<p>Several of the leaders invited to the assemblies politely listened to the youth declarations and then gave stump speeches as if to an election rally. But others were challenged by the youth delegates and responded to their priorities.</p>
<p>Our youth assemblies were experimental, and the political leaders who attended them were under no obligation to act upon anything they learned from them. But they did show that deliberation and dialogue can inspire political engagement. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6khEuBg0FA&ab_channel=TomONeill">documentary video</a> about our research, young Nepalis show that they are articulate, capable and passionate advocates for themselves and their communities. </p>
<p>At a time when democratic norms appear to be in decline around the world, deliberative democracy is one remedy that our research with Nepali youth suggests is worth pursuing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189204/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom O'Neill receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>At a time when democratic norms appear to be in decline around the world, deliberative democracy is one potential remedy worth pursuing.Tom O'Neill, Professor, Department of Child and Youth Studies, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1896132022-09-01T17:01:11Z2022-09-01T17:01:11ZWhy does Pierre Poilievre appeal to young Canadians? It’s all about economics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482307/original/file-20220901-15-gxmb4s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6500%2C4437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Federal Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre poses for photographs with supporters at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver in April 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pierre Poilievre’s <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/08/27/pierre-poilievre-is-poised-to-become-the-next-conservative-leader-and-young-voters-are-suddenly-interested-in-his-party.html">appeal to young voters</a>, something of a novelty for Canadian Conservative politicians, raises questions about both his popularity and the ability of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) to capitalize on the trend over the long term. </p>
<p>Why has Poilievre, unlike his recent predecessors, been successful at gaining support among younger voters, and what impact could this have on the CPC’s electoral coalition?</p>
<p>Conventional political wisdom holds that age has a lot to do with political ideology — while young adults are likely to be liberal, many will become increasingly conservative as they age. In some ways, this is an exaggerated cliché. </p>
<p>Direct measurements of political attitudes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/706889">more often find that a person’s propensity to be either conservative or liberal is stable over time</a>, regardless of age. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, this conventional wisdom was evident when it came to voting behaviour in Canada. From 2015 to 2019, the Conservative Party of Canada was the most popular choice <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-the-liberals-are-winning-over-older-normally-conservative-voters/">for Canadian voters over 55</a>, and the Conservatives fell behind the Liberals and the NDP among voters under the age of 34.</p>
<p>Historically, this has hurt the Conservatives while also helping progressive or left-leaning candidates. An influx of support from young voters, for example, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-youth-turnout-2015-1.3636290">played a decisive role in Justin Trudeau’s electoral victory in 2015</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a burgundy T-shirt talks to three young people, a boxing ring behind him and a trainer beside him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau speaks with youths as a boxing trainer looks on during a campaign stop in Montréal in September 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trudeau is losing young voters</h2>
<p>But the voting behaviour of young voters is highly volatile when it comes to both turnout and party preference. Since 2015, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/as-millennials-fall-out-of-love-with-trudeau-liberals-need-to-stop-the-bleed-towards-the-ndp">Trudeau’s Liberals have lost most of their support among young voters</a> as younger Canadians either supported other parties, became undecided or stopped voting entirely.</p>
<p>Currently, most voters under 34 are, as with most other Canadians, likely to <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-is-shedding-support-among-dislocated-younger-voters-1.1767474">express a lack of confidence in the performance of Trudeau as prime minister</a>. </p>
<p>Most youth support between 2015 and 2021 has instead gone to the NDP and its leader, Jagmeet Singh. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-jagmeet-singh-wants-to-attract-more-young-voters-and-hes-using-tiktok/">By deliberately targeting the demographic</a> through its policy and social media campaigns, <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-who-leads-among-young-voters-the-ndp/">the party was the clear favourite of young voters in the 2019 and 2021 elections</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A man in a pink turban sits among a row of young people listening to someone speak off-camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh listens to youth speak about their experiences during a campaign stop in Toronto in September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recently, however, much of this youth support for the Liberals and NDP now appears to be shifting again. For the first time since the 1980s, recent polls show that a <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-young-people-seem-to-be-leaning-tory-possibly-for-the-first-time-ever">plurality, although not a majority, of young voters now support the Conservative Party</a>. </p>
<p>This has been mostly attributed to Poilievre who, more than his rivals for the party leadership, has generated much of this enthusiasm.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1563594383651287041"}"></div></p>
<h2>Poilievre’s electoral edge?</h2>
<p>It’s possible these polls could shift before the next federal election, likely in 2025. But they nonetheless raise the possibility of a novel electoral advantage that a Poilievre-led Conservative party could bring to the next several federal votes. </p>
<p>Poilievre’s growing popularity among young voters is likely due to how he’s seized upon an opening by providing coherent messaging that addresses the general state of dissatisfaction and the economic anxieties that are weighing on young Canadians. </p>
<p>That includes continuing frustrations about the <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/half-of-canadians-under-30-have-given-up-on-owning-a-single-family-home-survey-1.5699344">inaccessibility of home ownership</a>, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2022/08/06/paycheque-to-paycheque-inflation-is-hitting-low-income-canadians-hard.html">income instability and inflation</a>. </p>
<p>The continuing detrimental economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/11/30/young-adults-hit-hard-by-pandemics-economic-impact-survey-suggests.html">have also affected this demographic the most</a>, contributing to perceptions of a <a href="https://thehub.ca/2021-05-21/ben-woodfinden-homeowners-will-soon-be-our-new-aristocracy/">growing divide</a> between older, economically established generations and younger adults. </p>
<p>This has also created a popular feeling among many young voters that the Trudeau government needs to be replaced. </p>
<p>In addition to a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-election-missteps-factbox-idUSKBN1W422D">series of missteps and scandals</a> that have eroded Trudeau’s personal popularity, the government is also perceived as being unable to deal with these growing economic concerns.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a yellow turban shakes hands with another man. Both are smiling." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP leader Jagmeet Singh meets with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Parliament Hill in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Because <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-ndp-accord-confidence-supply-agreement-1.6397985">the NDP entered into an agreement with the Liberals</a> allowing them to deliver on beneficial policies like dental-care coverage, the party is now limited in its ability to craft and convey a coherent alternative to the Liberal government. </p>
<p>This is even though New Democrats have, along with Poilievre, been engaging in populist attacks about economic elites for not <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/news/ndp-calls-action-make-rich-and-powerful-pay-their-fair-share">“paying their fair share.”</a> The NDP’s ongoing support for the Liberals has come at the cost of credibly tapping into a growing anti-Liberal sentiment by compromising their position as a principled adversary — giving Poilievre yet another opening to electoral success.</p>
<p>In contrast, Poilievre offers a coherent, semi-populist appeal that prioritizes these problems, provides a common cause or enemy and proposes solutions within Conservative policies.</p>
<h2>Attacking the elites</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pierre4pm.ca/fire_the_gatekeepers">Poilievre has identified a set of “gatekeepers”</a> that include all-powerful interests and established voices in Canadian public life as the source of these problems, including progressive urbanites, government bureaucrats and financial elites. In working to maintain their privilege, says Poilievre, these gatekeepers have compromised the opportunities available to ordinary Canadians. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1529920481423413253"}"></div></p>
<p>Recalibrating these existing institutions to align with a renewed desire for <a href="https://www.pierre4pm.ca/poilievre_would_protect_free_speech_from_gatekeepers">“freedom” is presented as the solution</a>, allowing Poilievre to repackage and legitimize conventional conservative emphases on free markets, deregulation and small government. </p>
<p>His platform’s appeal lies in the fact that it’s simultaneously coherent enough to appeal to Conservative partisans and, at the same time, vague enough to allow young voters to apply their own dissatisfaction or economic anxiety through this gatekeeper/freedom narrative.</p>
<p>Poilievre’s momentum among younger people, if maintained, could bring the CPC a notable electoral advantage in the next election. But given the fact it’s derived from an anti-Liberal sentiment, it’s difficult to determine if it will have a long-term impact. </p>
<p>The party may struggle to retain young voters in the years ahead, likely because younger Canadians care about issues that the Conservatives perform poorly on, like <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/05/19/youth-focused-on-affordability-climate-in-this-election-future-majority.html">climate change and social equity</a>. </p>
<p>But it’s also possible a much deeper and structural change among younger voters is afoot that is making them more conservative, both economically and socially.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-102503">As scholars of populism have argued</a>, the significant economic, social, demographic and technological changes of the last decade have produced a state of displacement and uncertainty that’s pushing emerging adults into conservative politics. If so, it’s good news for Poilievre.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Routley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pierre Poilievre’s momentum among young Canadians, if maintained, could bring the Conservative Party of Canada a notable electoral advantage in the next election.Sam Routley, PhD Student, Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1896542022-08-31T16:56:47Z2022-08-31T16:56:47ZAngola’s MPLA has been in power for nearly 50 years. The big challenges they must fix<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482005/original/file-20220831-18-w5jbal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Angolan girls in front of a patriotic slogan on a wall.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Eric Lafforgue/Art In All Of Us/Corbis via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Angolan president João Lourenço, who has been returned to power with a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62716562">greatly reduced majority</a>, faces the challenging task of turning around the economy and improving the living conditions of the majority, particularly young people.</p>
<p>The Angolan economy has been in bad shape since 2014 when <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/09/18/na-angola-confronting-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-the-oil-price-shock">oil prices declined</a>. Oil looms large over the economy, accounting for more than 90% of <a href="https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/angola/crude-oil-exports">exports</a>, 56% of government revenues and almost 35% of overall <a href="https://www.cmi.no/publications/7260-the-non-oil-tax-reform-in-angola-escaping-from-petroleum-dependency">economic output</a>. </p>
<p>Even some of its non-oil sectors such as construction and agriculture move in tandem with the oil sector, according to the International Monetary Fund. This makes the country’s efforts to diversify the economy that much more challenging. </p>
<p>The poor economic outcomes are visible in increasing levels of <a href="https://www.ine.gov.ao/publicacoes/detalhes/MTIyMQ%3D%3D">unemployment</a>,
especially among young people and in the urban areas. This has pushed most Angolans – particularly women – into low productive informal jobs. More than 80% of the Angolan population relies fully or partially on the <a href="https://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpgid=ine_tema&xpid=INE&tema_cod=1114&xlang=pt">informal economy</a>.</p>
<p>Angola’s economic performance loomed large over the election, explaining why young people have become the symbol of the destitute citizens. Angola has a youthful population with <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/angola-population">a median age of 16.7 years</a>.</p>
<p>Angolan youth have borne the brunt of the 30 years’ civil war which ended in 2002. Most of the <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/angola-civil-war-1.htm">half a million who died</a> were young fighters. The civil war left those who survived it with no <a href="http://uis.unesco.org/sites/default/files/documents/countryprofiles/AO.pdf">education</a>, no social or economic structures. The oil-based economy has created only residual employment opportunities to the low-skilled young people. Forced migration to urban areas during the war meant breaking social ties.</p>
<p>Young voters, who now represent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/20/angola-election-young-voters-call-for-change-mpla">about 60% of the voting population</a> under 24, would have played an important role in shifting the electoral balance away from the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), which has run the country since independence in 1975. The call for change in these elections mobilised the younger urban voters more than any other, with visible interventions on the streets and in social media. </p>
<p>The MPLA won 51.17% of the vote and its historical rival, National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (Unita), <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62716562">got 43.9%</a>. In the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/24/angola-ruling-party-mpla-claims-election-victory-jose-eduardo-dos-santos">2017 elections</a> the distribution was 61.1% for the MPLA and 26.7% for Unita. </p>
<p>Significantly, the latest poll saw the MPLA lose the nearly two-thirds majority it had enjoyed in the three previous elections since the end of the civil war in 2002. Explanations are mainly concentrated on discontentment with the economy and living conditions. </p>
<h2>It’s the economy</h2>
<p>The prolonged economic recession triggered in 2015-16 by <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/09/18/na-angola-confronting-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-the-oil-price-shock">falling oil prices and aggravated by the COVID pandemic</a> and declining oil production, deeply affected the everyday lives of Angolans. With the majority of the population depending on low-profit, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/angola/publication/angola-economic-update-angola-s-economic-recovery-and-challenges-ahead">unprotected informal activities</a>, the crisis affected a high number of families, who had to cut down on expenses such as education and health. </p>
<p>Now that the MPLA has been returned to power, it will have to deal with this particularly challenging situation. It will have to work hard and seriously commit to reversing the negative trends. What was difficult to improve in the last mandate will certainly be even more difficult in the next five years. </p>
<p>On the positive side, despite the difficulties, oil prices are on the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/angola/publication/angola-economic-update-angola-s-economic-recovery-and-challenges-ahead">rise again</a>, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/what-is-stake-investors-angolas-elections-2022-08-18/">investors</a> may be coming back to the country. COVID, which <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/09/18/na-angola-confronting-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-the-oil-price-shock">practically suspended the economy</a>, in particular the urban informal traders, is slowly disappearing from people’s minds and daily lives. This will mean working harder but in a better economic context.</p>
<h2>Youth factor</h2>
<p>It is a challenge, in the coming five years, to satisfy the large, youthful part of the voting population, who are more active and can move around and mobilise using new, less controlled means of communication.</p>
<p>Their most urgent need is employment and a perspective of life beyond the precarity of the informal economy. Unemployment among the youth (15-24 years) was at nearly 60% in 2021. Women are particularly left behind in this economic context, with a very low rate of participation in industry, and mostly relegated to <a href="https://www.ine.gov.ao/publicacoes/detalhes/MTIyMQ%3D%3D">agriculture (62.5%) and services (36.2%)</a> .</p>
<p>Generally with low education and skills, young men and women have little chance of getting their ideal job – normally, employment in the public sector, as civil servants. Finding these ideal jobs in Luanda, the capital city, is an even harder <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/cea/116?lang=en">quest</a>.</p>
<p>The frustrations resulting from this combination of serious challenges will not be resolved within the five years’ mandate of the party that has won the election. </p>
<p>The future of the Angolan youth was mortgaged a long time ago. In my view, it will take at least another two or three rounds of elections, with all efforts pointed at the youth and the improvement of their social, economic and educational conditions, for matters to improve. It is a long-term horizon, which may not be well accepted by the youth and lead more to leave the country. </p>
<p>If all goes well, if the winners of the next two or three elections can assure an intensive non-stop effort to educate and qualify the youth, they can conquer these key supporters. Until then, they will have to make sure that investments in social, economic and education areas are reaching them primarily.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189654/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cristina Udelsmann Rodrigues receives funding from Swedish research institutions. </span></em></p>A prolonged economic recession triggered by falling oil prices and worsened by the COVID pandemic has deeply affected the everyday lives of Angolans.Cristina Udelsmann Rodrigues, Senior Researcher, The Nordic Africa InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1843592022-08-31T12:27:58Z2022-08-31T12:27:58ZLocal election offices often are missing on social media – and the information they do post often gets ignored<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481859/original/file-20220830-32336-va0x41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C5767%2C3815&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It can take more than just big outdoor signs to encourage people to vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-arrives-at-an-early-voting-polling-place-at-the-news-photo/1055758302">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Local election officials are trying to share voting information with the public on social media but may be missing some key platforms – and the voters who use them.</p>
<p>In early July 2022, for instance, young voters in Boone County, Missouri, complained that they had missed the registration deadline to vote in the county’s Aug. 2 primary election. They claimed no one “<a href="https://www.komu.com/news/state/missouri-primary-election-voter-registration-deadline-passes/article_cdb96f40-fd7d-11ec-bd8b-5363ec76103c.html">spread the word on social media</a>.” The local election office in that county actually has a social media presence on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/voteboonemo/">Instagram</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/voteboonemo/">Facebook</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/voteboonemo">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@voteboonemo">TikTok</a>. But its accounts don’t have many followers and aren’t as active as, say, celebrity or teenage accounts are. As a result, election officials’ messages may never reach their audience.</p>
<p>The Boone County example raises important questions about how prospective voters can get informed about elections, starting with whether or not local election officials are active on social media and whether they use these platforms effectively to “spread the word.”</p>
<p>In our research as scholars of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9AlVoYcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">voter participation</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TY_5kAMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">electoral processes</a>, we find that when local election officials not only have social media accounts but use them to distribute information about voting, voters of all ages – but particularly young voters – are more likely to register to vote, to cast ballots and to have their ballots counted.</p>
<p><iframe id="4Piqe" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4Piqe/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>For example, during the 2020 election, Florida voters who lived in counties where the county supervisor of elections shared information about how to register to vote on Facebook, and included a link to Florida’s online voter registration system, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2022.2044020">were more likely to complete the voter registration process and use online voter registration</a>. </p>
<p>In North Carolina, we found that voters whose county board of elections used Facebook to share clear information about voting by mail <a href="https://www.merivaki.com/ongoing-projects.html">were more likely to have their mailed ballots accepted</a> than mail voters whose county boards did not share instructions on social media.</p>
<h2>Young people face distinct voting challenges</h2>
<p>Voter participation among young voters, those between the ages of 18 and 24, has increased in recent elections, but still <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-presidential-election-voting-and-registration-tables-now-available.html">lags behind that of older voters</a>. One reason is that younger voters have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1300/J199v05n03_03">not yet established a habit</a> of voting.</p>
<p>Even when they do try to vote, young voters face more barriers to participation than more experienced voters. They are more likely than older people to make <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X20914613">errors or omissions</a> on their voter registration applications and therefore not be successfully registered. </p>
<p>When they do successfully complete the registration process, they have more trouble casting a vote that will count, especially when it comes to following all the steps required for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912921993537">voting by mail</a>. When they try to vote in person, evidence from recent elections shows <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912919875816">high provisional voting rates in college towns</a>, suggesting college students may also experience trouble in casting a regular ballot owing to confusion about finding their polling place, or because they are not registered to vote because their voter registration <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1532673X20914613">application was not successfully processed</a>.</p>
<p>Some of these problems exist because voters, especially young ones, <a href="https://youngamericans.berkeley.edu/2020/08/test-information-about-youth-voter-suppression-fails-to-induce-significant-voter-backlash-effect/">don’t know what they need to do</a> to meet the voter eligibility requirements set by state election laws. Those laws often require registering weeks or months in advance of Election Day, or changing their registration information even if they move within a community.</p>
<h2>Social media as a tool to ‘spread the word’</h2>
<p>Social media can be a way to get this important information out to a wider audience, including to the young voters who are more likely to need it. </p>
<p>Younger people use <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2021/04/07/social-media-use-in-2021/">social media</a> more than older voters, with a strong preference for platforms such as YouTube, Instagram and Snapchat.</p>
<p>News outlets and political campaigns <a href="https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/how-social-media-is-shaping-political-campaigns/">use social media heavily</a>. But our analysis finds that the vast majority of local election officials don’t even have social media accounts beyond Facebook. And, when they do, it is likely that they are not effectively reaching their audience.</p>
<h2>Gaps in how local election officials use social media</h2>
<p>We have found that during the 2020 U.S. presidential election, 33% of county election offices <a href="https://mediawell.ssrc.org/expert-reflections/voter-education-in-the-digital-age-local-election-official-use-of-social-media-and-webpages-during-the-2020-u-s-presidential-election/">had Facebook accounts</a>. Facebook is the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/?menuItem=c14683cb-c4f4-41d0-a635-52c4eeae0245">most commonly used social media platform</a> among Americans of all ages. But two-thirds of county election offices didn’t even have a Facebook account.</p>
<p>Just 9% of county election offices had Twitter accounts, and fewer than 2% had accounts on Instagram or TikTok, which are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/?menuItem=b14b718d-7ab6-46f4-b447-0abd510f4180">more popular with young voters</a> than Twitter or Faceboook. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1544721782220984324"}"></div></p>
<h2>Using social media for voter education</h2>
<p>Local election officials are charged with sharing information about the voting process – including the mechanics of registering and voting, as well as official lists of candidates and ballot questions.</p>
<p>Their default method of making this information available is often to share it on their own government websites. But young voters’ regular use of social media presents an opportunity for officials to be more active and engaged on those sites.</p>
<p>While many election officials around the country face budget and staffing pressures, as well as <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/poll-local-election-officials-finds-safety-fears-colleagues-and">threats to their safety</a>, our research confirms that when officials do get involved on social media, young voters benefit – as does democracy itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184359/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thessalia (Lia) Merivaki is an Assistant Professor of American Politics at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Mississippi State University and a member of the Carter Center's U.S. Elections Expert Study Team. She has received funding from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) and the Scholars Strategy Network (SSN). She is also affiliated with the Election Community Network (ECN). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mara Suttmann-Lea is an Assistant Professor of American Politics in the Department of Government and International Relations at Connecticut College. They have received funding from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab and the Social Science Research Council. </span></em></p>When election officials share voting information on social media, voters benefit – and so does democracy.Thessalia Merivaki, Assistant Professor of American Politics, Mississippi State UniversityMara Suttmann-Lea, Assistant Professor of Government, Connecticut CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1860372022-07-14T01:29:01Z2022-07-14T01:29:01ZLabor promised a new committee of 15 young people to guide policy. So who gets picked, and how?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471508/original/file-20220629-26-zlvpua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C106%2C5472%2C3530&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-31/anthony-albanese-announces-labor-ministry/101113130">announced Anne Aly</a> is Australia’s new minister for youth. This will restore youth consultation to government decision-making after the abolition in 2013 of the Youth Advisory Council and the Office for Youth.</p>
<p>Labor has promised a <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/youth-engagement">new youth engagement model</a> driven by a steering committee of up to 15 young people.</p>
<p>Getting this panel of 15 young people right will be crucial to its effectiveness. Here are three factors to consider.</p>
<h2>1. Young Australians are diverse</h2>
<p>Generation Z (10–24 years old) <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/2021-census-shows-millennials-overtaking-boomers">represents</a> about 18% of Australia and about 30% of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.</p>
<p>(Looking at an older cohort of young people, Australian Bureau of Statistics data show about 3.2 million young people aged between 15–24 years made up 12% of the Australian population in 2020).</p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/10479663/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:500px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/10479663/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/10479663" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"> </a></div>
<p>ABS data show 74.5% of young people lived in major cities, 16.6% lived in inner regional areas and 8.9% live in outer regional, remote and very remote areas. So including voices from regional, rural and remote Australia on the government youth advisory committee will be important.</p>
<p>According to 2019 <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/children-youth/australias-youth/contents/demographics#technical-notes">data</a>, about a quarter of young people aged 15–24 were born overseas; 9.3% had a disability; just over half (51%) were male, 49% female; and 6.1% identified as gay, lesbian or having another sexual orientation.</p>
<p>Other Australian Bureau of Statistics data is notably limited. Questions in the recent census <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/Queer_Young_People_in_Australia_Insights_from_the_2021_Australian_Youth_Barometer/19719532">were not inclusive of a wider spectrum</a> of gender and sexuality.</p>
<p>So, finding 15 people who can advise on behalf of such a diverse constituency is no easy feat.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1536561650228203521"}"></div></p>
<h2>2. The population is changing</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/children-youth/australias-youth/contents/demographics#technical-notes">demographic makeup of Australia</a> is shifting. From 1971 to 2020, the population of people aged 15–24 grew from 2.3 million to 3.2 million. </p>
<p>But sustained low fertility and increased life expectancy has also meant their proportion relative to the Australian population is declining.</p>
<p>In 2021 we released our <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/The_2021_Australian_Youth_Barometer/16910956">Australian Youth Barometer</a>, which drew on a survey of more than 500 Australians aged 18-24, and interviews with 30 more about health, education, employment, money, housing, food, safety and citizenship.</p>
<p>We found just under a quarter of young people are pessimistic about having children in the future.</p>
<p>Young people remain a significant proportion of the population and their choices will continue to shape the future demographic makeup of Australia. The 15-person youth advisory committee should seek to reflect the range of views among Australian young people on issues such as family and future. </p>
<h2>3. Who puts their hand up?</h2>
<p>Who typically volunteers to participate on such a steering committee? Attempts at youth representation sometimes skew towards those most likely to self-nominate, such as the highly educated, articulate and confident.</p>
<p>But often it’s those least likely to put their hand up whose voice we need to hear the most.</p>
<p>Voices from disadvantaged backgrounds can be particularly absent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471798/original/file-20220630-18-m755ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The government’s approach must reflect the diversity of young people, include voices less commonly heard and address the big-ticket items identified by young people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The stakes are high for young people</h2>
<p>As Labor <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/youth-engagement">notes</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>younger people now face a future of high underemployment, depleted retirement savings, significant barriers to education and training, and a rent and housing affordability crisis.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While youth underemployment <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/unemployment-rate-39">has slightly fallen</a> recently, it remains pervasive. Australia also has the <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/government/government-matters/youth-unemployment.html">fourth-highest incidence of part-time employment</a> in the OECD.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-14/survey-home-ownership-not-an-option-for-most-young-australians/100205244">65% of Australians believe</a> owning a home is no longer an option for most young Australians.</p>
<p>Climate change <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-26/young-people-climate-change-what-does-future-hold/100950770">looms large</a>. An Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience <a href="https://www.aidr.org.au/media/7946/ourworldoursay-youth-survey-report-2020.pdf">survey</a> of 1,447 Australians aged 10–24 found more than 80% of participants above the age of 16 were concerned about climate change.</p>
<p>Looking at data from the 2021 <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/The_2021_Australian_Youth_Barometer/16910956">Australian Youth Barometer</a>, 20-year-old Rebecca from our Youth Reference Group said many young people feel ignored and so turn to</p>
<blockquote>
<p>protesting and using social media to share their voices and enact their agency. It is important that the diversity of young people’s voices are being listened to, encouraged, and supported.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Young people are also acutely aware – and critical – of the standards set by politicians.</p>
<p>One female <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/The_2021_Australian_Youth_Barometer/16910956">survey respondent</a>, aged 21, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In parliament there are people who are getting sexually assaulted and the government doesn’t say jack shit about it […] You don’t understand the dangers of being a woman.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many young people don’t feel that politicians actually listened or respected them.</p>
<p>As one young Indigenous person told us in a different piece of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14681366.2021.1891451">research</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[politicians] have no respect for Aboriginal people […] There was a big debate about ‘was this country settled’ […] It wasn’t settled, it was invaded.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Going beyond the committee</h2>
<p>It’s encouraging that the new government is seeking to engage with young people, which strikes a different note to their predecessors (remember when politicians told School Strike 4 Climate Action protesters to “<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/kids-should-be-in-school-student-protest-goers-cop-criticism-from-politicians/0obu5u1ro">stay in school</a>”?)</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/youth-engagement">new government has vowed</a> to engage with young people in a way that goes</p>
<blockquote>
<p>beyond the committee, by incorporating local forums, workshops, and town halls for young Australians to directly engage in debate and offer their perspectives and ideas.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is promising; too often, young people’s voices are sought in tokenistic or symbolic ways. </p>
<p>But the government’s approach must reflect the diversity of young people, include voices less commonly heard and address the big-ticket items identified by young people.</p>
<p>As one 20-year-old from Victoria <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/The_2021_Australian_Youth_Barometer/16910956">told us</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Obviously, we’re going to be the future leaders, presidents, prime ministers and treasurers and all that, so we have to make sure that we have our priorities set now, going into the future, so that when we do take over, we know what plans and goals to achieve and what action to take.</p>
</blockquote>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/growing-up-in-a-disadvantaged-neighbourhood-can-change-kids-brains-and-their-reactions-184145">Growing up in a disadvantaged neighbourhood can change kids' brains – and their reactions</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186037/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucas Walsh is a Chief Investigator of The Q Project, a partnership between Monash University and the Paul Ramsay Foundation investigating and improving the use of research by educators. This story is part of The Conversation's Breaking the Cycle series, which is about escaping cycles of disadvantage. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.</span></em></p>Too often, young people’s voices are sought in tokenistic or symbolic ways. Can Labor’s new youth engagement model do things differently?Lucas Walsh, Professor and Director of the Centre for Youth Policy and Education Practice, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1841592022-06-05T20:02:56Z2022-06-05T20:02:56ZYoung Australian voters helped swing the election – and could do it again next time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466733/original/file-20220602-22-pl2w0u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C0%2C5079%2C2706&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Greens supporters celebrate on election night. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2022 federal election saw a significant <a href="https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/two-parties-are-no-longer-preferred-20220522-p5angn">move away</a> from the two major parties, with a host of independent and Greens candidates taking seats from Labor and the Coalition. </p>
<p>Amid predictions about a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-young-australians-do-with-their-vote-are-we-about-to-see-a-youthquake-180883">youthquake</a>” before May 21, what role did young voters play in this radical electoral shift? And how important could they be by the next election?</p>
<h2>The trend was there</h2>
<p>Even before the election, researchers had noted major differences between younger and older voters.</p>
<p>Long-term <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf">voting patterns</a> showed <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/December/The_2019_Australian_Election_Study">Labor</a> was more likely to attract young voters. But surveys also showed how both the major parties have been losing their youth vote to the Greens.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Voters at the polling booth on Election Day." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Younger voters were trending away from the major parties before the 2022 poll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf">Australian Election Study</a> found after the 2019 election, 42% of voters under 24 did not vote for Labor or the Coalition. Of those aged 25 to 34, 35% did not vote for Labor or the Coalition. This compares to just 12% of those aged over 65.</p>
<p>We also know younger voters were more concerned about environmental issues and property prices than older voters. None of these were adequately addressed during the last term of parliament, which was <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-voters-will-inherit-a-hotter-more-dangerous-world-but-their-climate-interests-are-being-ignored-this-election-182663">marred</a> by frightening bushfires, heat waves and floods, and saw inadequate action on climate change and rising intergenerational inequality.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/young-australians-are-supposedly-turning-their-backs-on-democracy-but-are-they-any-different-from-older-voters-163891">Young Australians are supposedly 'turning their backs' on democracy, but are they any different from older voters?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Clear wins on May 21</h2>
<p>So it is not surprising that electorates with the highest rate of voters under 30 saw unprecedented support for Greens in 2022. An analysis of <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/elector_count/index.htm">AEC enrolment data</a> shows seats with four of the top five highest proportions of young voters (18-29 year-olds) went to the Greens. This includes: </p>
<ul>
<li>Melbourne with a youth vote of 26.9% (Greens retain)</li>
<li>Brisbane with a youth vote of 25.7% (Greens gain from the Liberal Party)</li>
<li>Griffith with a youth vote of 24.7% (Greens gain from Labor)</li>
<li>Ryan with a youth vote of 22.5% (Greens gain from the Liberal Party)</li>
</ul>
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<p><iframe id="YnO4F" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/YnO4F/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>Also in the top five was the seat of Canberra with a youth vote of 23.1%. This was an easy Labor retain. However, here the Greens primary vote was almost 25% and the Greens, not the Liberal Party, were used for the two-party-preferred calculations.</p>
<p>There were also a relatively high rate of youth enrolment in key seats likes Kooyong (20.8%, independent gain from Liberals) and Fowler (19.5%, independent gain from Labor). There were other Liberal-turned-teal seats with a relatively lower proportion of youth voters (Curtin 17.7%, Wentworth 17.1%, Goldstein 16.3%, North Sydney 16.3% and Mackellar 15.6%). But it is important to acknowledge the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/women-stormed-2022-federal-election-what-has-labor-pledged/101091444">women’s vote</a> may have been a stronger driving force in these seats. </p>
<p>So, what does this mean electorally going forward?</p>
<h2>The big debate about young voters</h2>
<p>Leading up to the election there was a lot of speculation about young people’s voting behaviour. As other countries recorded a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/upshot/youth-voting-2020-election.html">worrying decline</a> in youth electoral participation, I <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-young-australians-do-with-their-vote-are-we-about-to-see-a-youthquake-180883">argued</a> young Australians are different. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-young-australians-do-with-their-vote-are-we-about-to-see-a-youthquake-180883">What will young Australians do with their vote – are we about to see a 'youthquake'?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Still, there was concern the backdrop of COVID suffering, economic inequality, climate inaction and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/australians-faith-in-politics-has-collapsed-how-can-we-reimagine-democracy">decaying trust</a> in political leaders would culminate in youth political disengagement. Clearly, this did not happen.</p>
<h2>Parties and politicians now are on notice</h2>
<p>The election shows how the centre of gravity of Australian politics has shifted. The various swings away from the major parties revealed just how discerning voters can be. It also showed voters are likely to act based on policy concerns, rather than political allegiances.</p>
<p>The oldest millennial voters were 42 at this election, while first-time voters of 18 years of age included members of Generation Z. So, some of this can be attributed to generational replacement as the polls populate with more progressive, apartisan younger voters. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young voter walks past election advertising at the polling booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ahead of the election, there were fears young people would disengage with voting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This trend is only going to increase. A basic analysis of current enrolments, plus expected future enrolments suggests that by the next election, millennial voters and younger (those under 45) will make up about 44% of the voting population. This is similar to this election – where they made up 43% – but significantly up from ten or 20 years ago. That means what we consider to be younger generations are replacing their older counterparts - and their more conservative values - over time in the electorate. </p>
<p>The 2022 election also sends a crucial political signal to the younger voters. The results show them the power of their actions to affect change in Australia’s democracy – and that the vote, in an aggregate sense, is an effective tool to do so. The 2022 federal election was one to restore young people’s hope and faith in the Australian democratic system. </p>
<p>Major parties need to acknowledge that younger voters do not like what they are offering, especially in response to climate change. If Labor is hoping to woo them back in 2025, it is interesting that “Minister for Youth” is <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/albanese-government-full-ministry">not a cabinet position</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1531936824431882240"}"></div></p>
<p>In the lead-up to their electoral success, the Greens worked hard in Brisbane – courting voters with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-28/greens-win-brisbane-seat-electorate-federal-election/101104170">young, personable candidates</a> who went <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/australian-greens-hails-best-result-ever-with-dramatic-gains-in-lower-house-and-senate">door-to-door</a> to speak to voters directly. But they need to keep working. The Greens and teal victories were a virtue of issue-based voters, who will be watching whether these new MPs make change in Canberra. </p>
<p>Young voters in Australia can no longer be ignored.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184159/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Intifar Chowdhury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid predictions about a “youthquake” before May 21, what role did young voters play in this radical electoral shift?Intifar Chowdhury, Associate lecturer, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1460722020-09-23T12:32:13Z2020-09-23T12:32:13ZWant the youth vote? Some college students are still up for grabs in November<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359425/original/file-20200922-18-1y4u76j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3500%2C2326&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Encouraging students at the University of Colorado, Boulder, to vote in the midterm elections, Nov. 6, 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jeff-paley-of-boulder-colorado-encourages-students-on-the-news-photo/1058417618?adppopup=true">Jason Connolly/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>College students are a <a href="https://www.voanews.com/student-union/plenty-signs-surging-youth-vote-will-play-major-role-2020-us-election">rapidly growing</a> and increasingly coveted voting bloc. </p>
<p>Twice as many college students <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2019/09/24/college-students-take-to-the-voting-booth/#f633575253e0">voted in the 2018 midterms</a> as did in 2014, challenging the stereotype that young people are politically disengaged. According to the Knight Foundation, 71% of college students <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/71percent-of-college-students-plan-to-voteand-they-prefer-biden-over-trump.html">are expected to vote</a> this November. </p>
<p>Both President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are courting them, in different ways. Trump and his education secretary, Betsy DeVos, are trying to win the support of students with new <a href="https://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/us-secretary-education-betsy-devos-delivers-promise-protect-free-inquiry-and-religious-liberty">religious freedom</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2019/03/21/trump-expected-sign-executive-order-free-speech/">freedom of speech</a> assurances. Meanwhile, Biden is promising to enact <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/us/politics/biden-backs-free-college.html">tuition-free</a> college and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/21/what-joe-biden-would-do-for-student-loan-borrowers.html">forgive US$10,000 in student loans</a> for all borrowers if elected. </p>
<p>There are over <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/on-the-cusp-of-adulthood-and-facing-an-uncertain-future-what-we-know-about-gen-z-so-far/">14 million</a> college students in the United States, which has about <a href="http://statchatva.org/2019/11/11/elections-2020-projecting-eligible-voters-by-state/">235 million eligible voters</a>. </p>
<p>Nearly all students were born after 1996, meaning they belong to Generation Z. This generation of expected voters is 45% nonwhite, according to the Pew Research Center. And <a href="https://firstgen.naspa.org/research-and-policy/national-data-fact-sheets-on-first-generation-college-students/national-data-fact-sheets">over half of Gen Z college students</a> are the first in their families to attend college. As with any large and diverse group, some students are more likely to vote than others. </p>
<p>So which young people are actually up for grabs?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Students wait to vote at a polling station on the campus of the University of California, Irvine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359423/original/file-20200922-20-10m1sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young people are more politically engaged than they get credit for.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/students-wait-in-line-to-cast-their-ballot-at-a-polling-news-photo/1058415096?adppopup=true">Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Who votes, who doesn’t</h2>
<p>Our study, the Interfaith Diversity Experiences and Attitudes Longitudinal Survey, or <a href="http://www.ifyc.org/ideals">IDEALS</a>, helps to answer that question. </p>
<p>We conducted this four-year study of 5,762 students enrolled in one of 120 colleges and universities between fall 2015 and spring 2019. Our goal was to examine the religious and political behavior of students over time. We asked participants 70 questions – among them whether, in the 2016 election, they: did not vote; voted for the Republican candidate; voted for the Democratic candidate; voted for a third-party candidate; wrote in the name of a candidate; were not eligible to vote; or preferred not to respond. </p>
<p>Respondents were also asked their race/ethnicity, gender, family educational history, college major, religion, sexual orientation and other identifying features.</p>
<p>In terms of racial groups, we found that students identifying as Asian American/Asian/Pacific Islander/Native Hawaiian were less electorally engaged, with 26.2% reporting that they did not vote in 2016. Black/African American, white and Latino students were significantly more likely to have voted in the last election. And every one of the Native American students eligible to vote in 2016 did so. </p>
<p><iframe id="s4AuZ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/s4AuZ/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>First-generation students – regardless of race – were also unlikely to vote. Twenty-nine percent of them sat out the 2016 election, compared with 20% of students with at least one college-educated parent.</p>
<p>These nonvoting trends held as other important characteristics changed. First-generation students at public institutions were just as likely not to vote as first-generation students at private institutions. Similarly, Asian American business students were just as likely not to vote as Asian American students studying arts or humanities.</p>
<h2>Swing students</h2>
<p>These findings make historic sense. Both Asian Americans and lower-income Americans – a racially mixed group that many first-generation students belong to – are groups traditionally less likely to vote. </p>
<p>National politicians rarely make specific outreach efforts to Asian Americans, who make up <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219">5.9% of the U.S. population</a>. That leaves some with the “pervasive feeling of not belonging in American politics,” <a href="https://www.newamerica.org/weekly/why-asian-americans-dont-vote/">wrote Caitlin Kim for the research group New America</a> in 2017. The country’s 11 million eligible Asian American voters are an <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/asian-american-vote-2020-election-voting-rights-philadelphia-20200812.html">“untapped” power</a>,“ says Neil Goh of the Woori Center, an Asian American advocacy organization. </p>
<p>Poorer Americans, on the other hand, are historically <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/12/poor-voters-turnout-untapped-power-2020-us-election">less likely to vote</a>, in part due to a slew of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/01/why-are-the-poor-and-minorities-less-likely-to-vote/282896/">practical hurdles</a>. They are less likely to have ID, often experience longer voting lines and have more difficulty finding their polling place. Analysts say just a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/10/759512938/u-s-census-bureau-reports-poverty-rate-down-but-millions-still-poor#:%7E:text=Despite%20the%20decline%20in%20poverty,two%20adults%20and%20two%20children.">small increase</a> in turnout among the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/10/759512938/u-s-census-bureau-reports-poverty-rate-down-but-millions-still-poor#:%7E:text=Despite%20the%20decline%20in%20poverty,two%20adults%20and%20two%20children.">38 million Americans who live in poverty</a> could shift the 2020 election. </p>
<p>Both Trump and Biden are trying to leverage their <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-jr-says-joe-biden-only-addressed-rioting-in-america-when-cnn-pointed-out-it-was-affecting-polls/vp-BB18C1X4">blue-collar appeal</a>, which may capture the interests of first-generation voters. But new research on Asian American voters shows their party preference, once largely Republican, <a href="https://theconversation.com/asian-americans-political-preferences-have-flipped-from-red-to-blue-145577">has firmly shifted toward the Democrats</a>. And Biden’s vice presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, has been highlighting her <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/kamala-harris-reminds-indian-americans-of-her-south-asian-descent-2280149">Asian roots</a> in an effort to appeal to Asian American voters.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>With Election Day just weeks away, many voters on both sides of the aisle are already strongly committed to one candidate and unlikely to change their minds, so campaigns are focused on winning over and turning out traditionally nonvoting blocs. </p>
<p>Asian American and first-generation students may be among the few votes that are still up for grabs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146072/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew J. Mayhew receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Fetzer Institute, the U.S. Department of Education, the Merrifield Family Foundation, and the Marion Ewing Kauffman Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christa Winkler, Kevin Singer, and Musbah Shaheen do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers examined the voting behavior of 5,762 students at 120 colleges and universities. Two groups stood out as an untapped electoral resource – if the candidates can turn out Gen Z.Matthew J. Mayhew, The William Ray and Marie Adamson Flesher Professor of Higher Education, The Ohio State UniversityChrista Winkler, Assistant Professor, Department of Educational Leadership, Mississippi State UniversityKevin Singer, PhD student and research assistant with the Interfaith Diversity Experiences and Attitudes Longitudinal Study, North Carolina State UniversityMusbah Shaheen, PhD student in Higher Education and Student Affairs, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1459912020-09-17T11:28:26Z2020-09-17T11:28:26ZPoll workers on Election Day will be younger – and probably more diverse – due to COVID-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358171/original/file-20200915-22-1pff5dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C117%2C2746%2C1524&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With its largely white and older workers, this poll site in Maine is typical of poll sites across the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/poll-workers-check-in-voters-as-they-make-their-way-to-the-news-photo/495619496?adppopup=true">Shawn Patrick Ouellette/Portland Portland Press Herald via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Election officials are <a href="https://www.axios.com/poll-workers-coronavirus-elderly-young-people-b50c1c36-385c-49dc-9585-06fdd9b729c6.html">busily trying to recruit</a> younger volunteers to staff the United States’ roughly <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/polling-places.aspx">230,000 polling sites</a> on Election Day in November.</p>
<p>Many of the nation’s poll workers are reluctant to work during the pandemic because they are, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/06/older-people-account-for-large-shares-of-poll-workers-and-voters-in-u-s-general-elections/">overwhelmingly, older</a> and at <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/05/894331965/wanted-young-people-to-work-the-polls-this-november">high risk of severe COVID-19 infection</a>. </p>
<p>Poll workers are the gatekeepers of democracy. They check people in, verify their identity and determine their eligibility to vote. If voters do not appear on the rolls, poll workers trouble-shoot the problem or offer a provisional ballot. Poll workers also explain how the machines work, answer questions about the ballot and field complaints about long lines. </p>
<p>For all this, they <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/election-poll-workers637018267.aspx">are paid modestly</a> – <a href="https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/politics/elections/portland-gets-more-than-100-poll-worker-applications-on-monday-encourages-more-to-apply/97-62b4eff8-4b29-4833-bbfe-57974387df13">US$12 an hour in Portland</a>, Maine, or up to <a href="https://vote.nyc/page/poll-worker-positions">$280 a day in New York City</a>. So local election officials are used to facing <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/elj.2014.0277">shortages of poll workers</a>. </p>
<p>But COVID-19 makes the staffing challenge greater than ever.</p>
<h2>Who are poll workers</h2>
<p>There isn’t much research on the <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/elj.2014.0277">cadre of elderly volunteers</a> that run American elections. </p>
<p>The most <a href="https://electionline.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2019_Elec_LEOSurveyBrief_v02.pdf">comprehensive study of local election administrators</a>, published in 2019 by the Democracy Fund, finds that poll worker recruitment is a constant challenge for election officials. The majority of poll workers are <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/10/22/few-people-want-to-be-poll-workers-and-thats-a-problem">61 or older</a>. Most are retirees, who arguably have more free time on their hands. They also have a strong sense of civic duty and patriotism, according to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1532673X20920266?casa_token=Jm1Zezq-9RMAAAAA:z8X-hK70JNqrkjc5Ngsxdi3QK2DbtMeYe-cy1ETE2eCakcUEzdgOL0JvjzQQJC82zKDmnBZxdg5v8Q">academic research</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/05/894331965/wanted-young-people-to-work-the-polls-this-november">media interviews</a> with volunteers.</p>
<p>Once people have worked the polls, they are likely to do it again, usually at the same polling location. This is in part civic duty but also because election officials – who have limited time and resources for recruitment and training – tend to recruit reliable past workers for the job.</p>
<p>The small, largely white and older candidate pool means certain people are less likely to serve as poll workers – namely people of color and young people.</p>
<p>This matters because poll workers, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912908324870?casa_token=wq7_botRIPUAAAAA:XYWglW4VV2TO22m71F5_9VkGSlAmMLMdNIQy8Qa4016ncqIQdsw_fEPh_kegX_OXxFZ99MXU5eUosg">the human dimension of an election</a>, influence voter experience in various ways. As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9AlVoYcAAAAJ&hl=en">my research has documented</a>, they have significant discretion on issues like verifying eligibility and offering provisional ballots – the ballots used when there are questions about a given voter’s eligibility that must be resolved before the vote can count. </p>
<p>Voters have been wrongly turned away or denied a provisional ballot because of poll worker error, though the <a href="https://www.eac.gov/about_the_eac/help_america_vote_act.aspx">2002 Help America Vote Act</a> requires that provisional ballots be offered to all voters. White poll workers have also shown <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/10.1017/S0022381614000528.pdf?casa_token=C4BZ9reY9FMAAAAA:w7PuLB5toLOCMuDWMw1X4Jz28j5xJtukNjvA2vHjiisQCCb6W0uWl1Y-oIi7whN4gJgc28EVzYLzGNw0fRgd5GVXhIeYR6bGElTGIt8X5GwBtz_K6RNH">biases against nonwhite voters</a>, questioning them more intensely. </p>
<p>Poll workers can even <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/21/heres-problem-with-mail-in-ballots-they-might-not-be-counted/">invalidate a person’s vote</a> if they determine that the signature on their mail-in or absentee ballot does not match the one on their voter registration record. </p>
<p>Compared to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/06/older-people-account-for-large-shares-of-poll-workers-and-voters-in-u-s-general-elections/">older voters</a>, young people often give <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912908324870?casa_token=SL28Wu_643MAAAAA:kkYhRroTh-DcQIdsUXZ5-NY7kqn-WF1jZZ00grdWjg_ZBtIH7LZPoQbvQZursWYxf1Z4BJsSMQd1tw">their poll workers poorer evaluations</a>, especially when they <a href="https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/97651/WP_77.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">vote for the first time</a>. And minority voters report more positive experiences when they interact with poll workers who <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/elj.2018.0485">look like them</a>. Both are groups that are already more likely to <a href="https://theconversation.com/closing-polling-places-is-the-21st-centurys-version-of-a-poll-tax-133301">feel or be politically excluded</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358169/original/file-20200915-20-e6b7g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Black woman and her small son receive instructions from a Black poll worker in a gym set up for voting" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358169/original/file-20200915-20-e6b7g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358169/original/file-20200915-20-e6b7g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358169/original/file-20200915-20-e6b7g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358169/original/file-20200915-20-e6b7g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358169/original/file-20200915-20-e6b7g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358169/original/file-20200915-20-e6b7g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358169/original/file-20200915-20-e6b7g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voters of color may have a better voting experience if their poll worker looks like them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-and-her-son-take-direction-from-a-poll-worker-during-news-photo/1228299406?adppopup=true">Craig F. Walker/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, older voters may view young poll workers with skepticism. In Mississippi’s 2018 midterm election, many of my students signed up to be first-time poll workers. Some older voters, expecting a more senior poll worker, asked to deal with the “poll manager.”</p>
<h2>Young people save the day?</h2>
<p>With so many veteran poll workers refusing to work during the pandemic due to health concerns, some polling sites may not open on Nov. 3 and many others will have long lines. In <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgias-election-disaster-shows-how-bad-voting-in-2020-can-be-141678">Georgia’s disastrous June 9 primary</a>, many people waited for hours to vote; some were sent home without voting when polling sites closed.</p>
<p>Across the country, poll workers who reported for primary duty said it was “<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/georgia-poll-worker-describes-overwhelming-voting-chaos">overwhelming</a>” to maintain COVID-19 safety protocols and still service voters who were anxious to cast their vote and leave. </p>
<p>To help remedy the situation in November, the federal Election Assistance Commission declared Sept. 1, 2020 to be “<a href="https://www.eac.gov/help-america-vote">National Poll Worker Recruitment Day</a>.” Organizations like <a href="https://www.powerthepolls.org/">Power the Polls</a> pushed this initiative hard with younger Americans. News outlets reported that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-recruit-350-000-poll-workers-for-u-s-election-11599384600">350,000 new poll workers signed up</a>. </p>
<p>For perspective, <a href="https://www.eac.gov/documents/2017/11/15/eavs-deep-dive-poll-workers-and-polling-places">917,694</a> poll workers worked the 2016 presidential election.</p>
<p>More volunteers are a good sign for November’s election, and it may improve the voting experience in certain ways. Young people are generally more tech savvy. And if this crowd is more diverse than the veteran poll workers, they could boost the generally low election confidence of first-time voters and voters of color.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358201/original/file-20200915-14-13vfwfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dozens of people in masks standing outside in a long line" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358201/original/file-20200915-14-13vfwfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358201/original/file-20200915-14-13vfwfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358201/original/file-20200915-14-13vfwfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358201/original/file-20200915-14-13vfwfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358201/original/file-20200915-14-13vfwfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358201/original/file-20200915-14-13vfwfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358201/original/file-20200915-14-13vfwfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sort of socially distanced line to vote in Atlanta, June 9, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-wait-in-line-to-vote-in-georgias-primary-election-on-news-photo/1218845591?adppopup=true">Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Experience matters</h2>
<p>The inexperience of the new poll workers, however, will present challenges. Long-time poll workers develop a familiarity with the election process and with regular voters. This can make elections run more smoothly. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Take the contentious issue of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/14/politics/election-2020-ballot-signature-mismatches/index.html">signature validation</a>, for example. Individual poll workers may interpret state election laws differently and receive different levels of training on this topic. </p>
<p>In Mississippi’s 2018 midterm election, many of my student first-time poll workers reported that absentee ballots coming from retirement communities had signatures that did not match the ones on the record and should therefore be rejected. Older poll workers, on the other hand, argued that they’d known these voters for decades and that the votes should count. Research shows one’s signature is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/14/us/voting-signatures-matching-elections.html">very likely to change over time</a>. </p>
<p>Election officials provide training to new recruits, either in person or online, but it’s no match for years on the job. Regardless, the country needs more poll workers, veteran or otherwise. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.eac.gov/help-america-vote">Positions are still wide open, nationwide</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145991/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thessalia Merivaki's research on election administration has received funding from the MIT Elections Lab.</span></em></p>An army of mostly older, white volunteers run America’s voting sites. They’re reluctant to work during a pandemic. So new recruits are signing up to run the polls, for better and for worse.Thessalia Merivaki, Assistant Professor of American Politics, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1451572020-09-08T12:16:04Z2020-09-08T12:16:04ZDoes 4 years of college make students more liberal?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355371/original/file-20200828-16-1e1vloc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C387%2C258&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Students' positive attitudes toward conservative ideas are the same before and after four years of college. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/group-of-university-students-wearing-masks-in-class-royalty-free-image/1267681176?adppopup=true">FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Over four years of college, students develop positive attitudes for political liberals but not conservatives. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Higher education needs <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/higher-education-has-become-increasingly-partisan/596407/">support from conservatives</a> – lawmakers as well as taxpayers.</p>
<p>But conservative <a href="https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/09/if-you-want-to-defund-something-start-with-higher-education/">critics</a> continue to fault higher education for making students more <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/07/20/conservatives-hostile-higher-education-good-reasons-noah-rothman-column/478906001/">liberal</a>. The central argument is that higher education does not value politically conservative perspectives. As a result, conservative critics believe college students are not exposed to conservative <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/harvard-newspaper-survey-finds-1-of-faculty-members-identify-as-conservative">scholarship</a> or <a href="https://nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-disappearing-conservative-professor">teaching</a>. Research has shown that conservative students feel <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-liberals-and-conservatives-get-wrong-about-free-expression-on-college-campuses-131285">silenced</a> for voicing their political opinions in the college classroom. </p>
<p>Through our <a href="http://ifyc.org/navigating-religious-diversity">analysis</a> of 3,486 students at 116 U.S. colleges and universities, we found that students’ positive attitudes toward political conservatives were largely the same when they started college and four years later. Compared to their responses in fall of 2015, graduating college seniors in the spring of 2019 were just as likely to report that political conservatives made positive contributions to society and were ethical people. Similarly, they were also just as likely to say that they had things in common with – and had positive attitudes toward – political conservatives.</p>
<p>But that’s not the whole story.</p>
<p>Students were actually surveyed over three points during college. In 2015, 42% of students had “high” positive attitudes toward political conservatives. That share increased substantially to 50% in 2016. Three years later, in 2019, it returned to 42%. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, positive attitudes toward politically liberal people generally increased during college. All told, 58% of students reported “high” positive attitudes toward this group in 2015. That number grew to 66% in 2016 and then hit 70% in 2019.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>At first glance, these findings may seem to support the idea that college makes students more liberal. However, if that were the case, positive attitudes toward political conservatives would have plummeted well below pre-college levels. </p>
<p>Why did student attitudes toward liberals steadily grow more positive while attitudes toward conservatives did not? Notably, data between the second and third wave of collection took place after the 2016 presidential election. This raises the possibility of a potential Trump effect. But we cannot be certain because changes in students’ attitudes can be attributed to any number of factors within and beyond their campus experience. </p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>What experiences lead students to develop more positive attitudes toward political liberals? Or conservatives? Answers to these questions will enable educators to design learning environments that help students develop more positive attitudes toward all political ideologies, not just their own. In a time of heightened political polarization, cooperation across political differences is imperative to a functioning democracy. Higher education has the potential to contribute to this aim. </p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>We don’t know if and how these attitudes will continue to change – or how another contentious presidential election might affect them. Ultimately, we would like to gather this information by surveying this cohort again after the 2020 elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145157/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew J. Mayhew receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Fetzer Institute, the U.S. Department of Education, the Merrifield Family Foundation, and the Marion Ewing Kauffman Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alyssa N. Rockenbach receives funding from The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, The John E. Fetzer Institute, and Julian Grace Foundation.</span></em></p>A survey examines how the college experience changes – or doesn’t change – students’ political views.Matthew J. Mayhew, The William Ray and Marie Adamson Flesher Professor of Higher Education, The Ohio State UniversityAlyssa N. Rockenbach, Professor of Higher Education, North Carolina State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1450082020-08-25T20:05:32Z2020-08-25T20:05:32ZLowering New Zealand’s voting age to 16 would be good for young people – and good for democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354499/original/file-20200825-14-1u4w6aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C8%2C2982%2C1917&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent decision to <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12357017">delay</a> the 2020 general election has given <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/122471241/about-5000-young-people-now-eligible-to-vote-after-delay-to-2020-election">thousands</a> more New Zealand citizens the opportunity to vote for the first time.</p>
<p>But while it’s wonderful for those who turn 18 between the original election date and the new one, it does shine a spotlight on an ongoing source of inequality among New Zealand citizens: the <a href="https://vote.nz/enrolling/get-ready-to-enrol/are-you-eligible-to-enrol-and-vote/?">voting age</a> of 18 itself.</p>
<p>If these young people are capable of voting on October 17, they were probably capable of voting on September 19. Those four weeks are not going to be the difference between making reasoned or random choices when casting a vote.</p>
<p>The current system disadvantages an already vulnerable and powerless group – the young. Lowering the voting age would address this. And we could start by <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/424324/teens-ask-court-to-lower-voting-age-to-16">listening</a> to the young Kiwis who have taken their age discrimination campaign, <a href="https://makeit16.org.nz/">Make it 16</a>, to the High Court.</p>
<p>It’s important to recognise the voting age limit of 18 for what it is – a procedural decision: 18 is a convenient number that happens to coincide with some (but not all) other age limits for the granting of rights in our society.</p>
<p>Procedural decisions aren’t necessarily bad. It might, for example, make sense to limit the ability to gain a <a href="https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/factsheets/45/docs/45-learning-to-drive.pdf">driver’s licence</a> to those 16 years of age or older. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1297774673325744130"}"></div></p>
<p>This isn’t to claim that no-one under 16 could ever be capable of driving. Rather, the age limit of 16 is a reasonable imposition on an activity and can be justified by appeal to the development of certain capacities.</p>
<h2>Age limits are arbitrary</h2>
<p>But voting isn’t like driving. Political participation – of which voting is the prime example – is a human right, and protected as such. Driving is not. So the standard for justifying not letting someone vote is and should be higher than the standard of justification for not letting someone drive.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-from-the-brexit-and-trump-playbooks-enters-the-new-zealand-election-campaign-but-its-a-risky-strategy-144855">Populism from the Brexit and Trump playbooks enters the New Zealand election campaign – but it's a risky strategy</a>
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<p>Why then don’t we let people vote until they are 18?</p>
<p>Some might say younger citizens aren’t capable of voting well and so shouldn’t be entitled to. Maybe under-18s don’t pay enough attention to political news, or maybe they just can’t make political decisions.</p>
<p>This line of reasoning runs into multiple problems. If we really care about people being capable of voting well, then an age limit of 18 doesn’t provide sufficient guidance. Young people don’t receive powers of political reasoning as a magical 18th-birthday gift. In reality, they develop the skills over time and 18 is merely when we recognise them. </p>
<p>So, even if it’s true that some people can’t vote well and therefore shouldn’t vote at all, this line of reasoning begs the question about the voting age. It assumes, wrongly, that 18 is a good place to draw the line.</p>
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<p>That isn’t the only problem. We should and do allow those with severe cognitive disabilities to vote once they are 18, despite many of these people having demonstrably less capacity for political decision-making than teenagers. If capacity to vote matters, it matters for everyone, not just for young people.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-covid-19-crisis-tests-oppositions-as-well-as-governments-ahead-of-new-zealands-election-national-risks-failing-that-test-144415">The COVID-19 crisis tests oppositions as well as governments. Ahead of New Zealand's election, National risks failing that test</a>
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<h2>Voter turnout could improve</h2>
<p>Others may argue that turnout among young voters is low compared to voters in general. They are right – but so what? It isn’t clear to me that participation rates are the most important metric here. But even if we think they are, there is no reason to believe that letting younger citizens vote will cause overall rates to drop.</p>
<p>On the contrary, there is reason to think the opposite. <a href="http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_es/zonas_es/europa/ari88-2018-schmidt-edthofer-voting-16-austria-possible-model-eu">Evidence</a> from Austria, which lowered the voting age to 16 for its 2008 elections, suggests that enfranchising very young voters improves their participation rates.</p>
<p>Importantly for the long-term health of our democracy, once very young voters have voted, they are more likely to continue voting than those who couldn’t until they were 18.</p>
<p>Lowering the voting age may, in fact, benefit turnout. Voting is a habit which, once formed, is harder to break. If 16-year-olds have the desire but not the opportunity to vote, by the time they can, some percentage of them has become disengaged.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voting-is-an-essential-service-too-new-zealand-cant-be-afraid-to-go-to-the-polls-even-in-lockdown-144349">Voting is an essential service too. New Zealand can't be afraid to go to the polls, even in lockdown</a>
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<h2>Voting young builds the habit</h2>
<p>By contrast, if the development of the desire to vote coincides with the ability, they are more likely to act on that desire in the moment – and to continue voting in future.</p>
<p>This also helps dissolve a further objection, that young people aren’t interested in politics and so are less likely to make good choices. </p>
<p>A legitimate reason for young people not to care about politics is that they can’t participate in the first place. Being able to vote is an incentive for younger people to learn about politics in ways they otherwise might not.</p>
<p>So spare a thought for those who will turn 18 just after October 17, who miss out simply because of when the election falls. We can and should do better – by recognising this inequity and working to change the voting age for 2023.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Munn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Changing the voting age from 18 would allow more young citizens to make voting a habit before they lose interest in politics.Nick Munn, Senior Lecturer in Philosophy, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1443362020-08-11T20:30:27Z2020-08-11T20:30:27ZWith Harris pick, Biden reaches out to young Black Americans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352358/original/file-20200811-15-19866mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=34%2C34%2C5561%2C3905&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will young, Black Americans turn out to vote in November?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/royce-white-participates-in-the-black-4th-protest-in-news-photo/1224874110?adppopup=true">Stephen Maturen/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/08/11/us/biden-vs-trump">choice of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate</a>, Joe Biden may have helped bring young Black Americans to his side on Election Day.</p>
<p>Only <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/news/upload/bsvp-deck-sf-7-28-2.pdf">47%</a> of those Black Americans under 30 years old that we surveyed recently planned to vote for Biden, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee. But by picking Harris, a Black running mate, support for Biden jumps to 73% in this age group, which is a significant increase though still lower than other age groups.</p>
<p>Harris joining up with Biden may have made the Democratic ticket more attractive to younger Black Americans, who now comprise what we define as a critical set of swing voters. </p>
<p>But these aren’t your grandparents’ swing voters.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352377/original/file-20200811-14-1y14mcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Senator Kamala Harris" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352377/original/file-20200811-14-1y14mcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352377/original/file-20200811-14-1y14mcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352377/original/file-20200811-14-1y14mcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352377/original/file-20200811-14-1y14mcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352377/original/file-20200811-14-1y14mcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352377/original/file-20200811-14-1y14mcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352377/original/file-20200811-14-1y14mcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sen. Kamala Harris, arriving at the U.S. Capitol for the Senate impeachment trial of U.S. President Donald Trump, on January 31, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-kamala-harris-arrives-at-the-u-s-capitol-for-the-senate-news-photo/1203224580?adppopup=true">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>No longer working-class whites</h2>
<p>Most political analysts define “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/just-how-many-swing-voters-are-there/">swing voters</a>” as those who swing their support from one party to the other between election cycles – determining winners and losers in the process. </p>
<p>According to this conventional wisdom, the “swingiest” voters are <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/the-tyranny-of-the-unwoke-white-swing-voter.html">working-class whites</a> in the Midwest, who supposedly hold the <a href="https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/6/18/electoral-college-win-for-biden">keys to the White House</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, by contrast, pundits often portray Black Americans as an undifferentiated mass – loyal Democrat-supporting foot soldiers who will execute their mission for The Team on Tuesday as long as some <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/218362-black-caucus-rallies-churches-to-boost-turnout">preacher provides the right marching orders</a> on Sunday.</p>
<p>If these depictions have not already expired, they are certainly growing stale. Having <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/faculty/dbarker.cfm">studied electoral trends for decades</a>, we can tell you that those undecided voters of the past are an <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/%7Egelman/research/unpublished/swing_voters.pdf">endangered species</a> – in the Midwest and elsewhere. These days, the only choice that most Americans make – indeed, the choice that typically “swings” the election outcome – is whether to vote at all.</p>
<p>That brings us to the characterization of Black Americans as Democratic loyalists. </p>
<p>Our new <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/ccps/upload/bsvp-fact-sheet-db-8-4-updated.pdf">survey</a> of 1,215 African Americans in battleground states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia – reveals that while those over 60 remain among the most reliable of Democratic voters, and those between 40-59 are still pretty locked in as well, those under 30 (whom we oversampled to comprise half of our sample) are anything but.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351152/original/file-20200804-14-fbhdy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bill Clinton and Al Gore at a Black Church service during the 1992 presidential campaign." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351152/original/file-20200804-14-fbhdy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351152/original/file-20200804-14-fbhdy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351152/original/file-20200804-14-fbhdy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351152/original/file-20200804-14-fbhdy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351152/original/file-20200804-14-fbhdy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351152/original/file-20200804-14-fbhdy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351152/original/file-20200804-14-fbhdy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Black church members are seen as key to a candidate’s election victory; here, Governor Bill Clinton and Senator Al Gore attend service at the Olivet Baptist Church in Cleveland, Ohio during the Clinton-Gore 1992 campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/governor-bill-clinton-and-senator-al-gore-attend-service-at-news-photo/144080131?adppopup=true">Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Not sold on Biden</h2>
<p>Cathy Cohen, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago who studies Black youths’ political views, summed up this attitude in a recent <a href="https://news.uchicago.edu/black-lives-matter-protests-hope-future">podcast</a>: “They’ve seen the election of Black mayors, they’ve seen the election of the first Black president, and they’ve also seen that their lives have not changed.”</p>
<p><iframe id="oqN1d" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oqN1d/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Not sold on voting</h2>
<p>These young Black Americans may well sit things out in November, just as <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/05/18/census-shows-pervasive-decline-in-2016-minority-voter-turnout/">many of them did in 2016</a> when their behavior <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/">swung that election to Trump</a> as much as anything else did. </p>
<p>In our poll, <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/news/upload/bsvp-deck-sf-7-28-2.pdf">31%</a> of Black Americans under 30 say they probably won’t vote in this election. That may sound pretty good, given the <a href="https://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout">average U.S. voter turnout of around 60% in recent elections</a>. </p>
<p>But survey respondents of all stripes tend to <a href="https://www-jstor-org.proxyau.wrlc.org/stable/40660537?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">wildly overestimate</a> their intention to vote. Indeed, about <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/ccps/upload/bsvp-fact-sheet-db-8-4-updated.pdf">half</a> of our Black survey respondents under 30 say they don’t often vote because it “doesn’t make a difference,” providing a somewhat more realistic estimate of the percentage who will probably just stay home – and not search for a stamp to mail in their ballot, either. </p>
<p>And that number does not even take into account the turnout-depressing effects of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/voter-suppression-novembers-looming-election-crisis/613408/">voter suppression</a> efforts taking place across the country, the pandemic or the heavy distrust of mail-in voting that young Black people tend to express. Only <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/ccps/upload/bsvp-fact-sheet-db-8-4.pdf">64%</a> of young people in our sample say they trust the state to report their vote accurately, and only <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/ccps/upload/bsvp-fact-sheet-db-8-4.pdf">30%</a> say they plan to take advantage of mail-in voting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351156/original/file-20200804-14-1wx3hse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden with a group of people at the Bethel AME Church in Wilmington, Delaware." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351156/original/file-20200804-14-1wx3hse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351156/original/file-20200804-14-1wx3hse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351156/original/file-20200804-14-1wx3hse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351156/original/file-20200804-14-1wx3hse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351156/original/file-20200804-14-1wx3hse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351156/original/file-20200804-14-1wx3hse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351156/original/file-20200804-14-1wx3hse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biden is courting the Black vote – here, he’s at the Bethel AME Church in Wilmington, Delaware on June 1, 2020 – but fewer than half of young Black Americans surveyed in battleground states say they will vote for him.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-vice-president-and-democratic-presidential-candidate-news-photo/1216880122?adppopup=true">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not sold on the Democratic Party</h2>
<p>Such cynicism on the part of young Black Americans is reflected in the lukewarm feelings they tend to have toward the Democratic Party more generally. </p>
<p>Only <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/news/upload/bsvp-deck-sf-7-28-2.pdf">47%</a> of them say that the party is welcoming to Black Americans, and only <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/news/upload/bsvp-deck-sf-7-28-2.pdf">43%</a> say they trust Democrats in Congress to do what’s best for the Black community. Perhaps most strikingly, unlike their older counterparts, only <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/ccps/upload/bsvp-fact-sheet-db-8-4-updated.pdf">half</a> of those under 30 view the Democrats as any better than the Republicans on these scores. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>In both the survey responses and in the focus groups we conducted of young Black Americans in these same states, we heard repeated frustration toward what they view as a Democratic Party that expects their vote but doesn’t really do anything to deserve it other than claim to be “less racist” than the alternative.</p>
<p>As one of our focus group respondents put it, “I think at the end of the day, they all have the same agenda.”</p>
<p>In short, it appears that for Black America, the future is not necessarily “blue.” Electorally speaking, it is not necessarily anything at all. Moving forward, young Black Americans may be the real <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/other-swing-voter/604474/">“swing voters”</a> in the only way that term really makes much sense anymore. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-black-americans-not-sold-on-biden-the-democrats-or-voting-143884">article</a> originally published on Aug. 5, 2020.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144336/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Fulwood III is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, where he studies race, politics and public policy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David C. Barker currently receives funding from the Hewlett Foundation and the National Science Foundation for other projects. For this project, we received funding from The Hub Project.</span></em></p>By picking Kamala Harris, a Black running mate, Biden may have brought younger Black Americans, who now comprise a critical set of swing voters, over to his side.Sam Fulwood III, Fellow, Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, American UniversityDavid C. Barker, Professor of Government and Director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1352802020-04-15T12:13:24Z2020-04-15T12:13:24ZHow to reach young voters when they’re stuck at home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326993/original/file-20200409-72664-iwoqu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young Minnesota voters cast their ballots on March 3, before the coronavirus outbreak really set in for the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/young-somalia-americans-cast-their-ballot-during-the-news-photo/1204948098">Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Colleges across the U.S. have sent students home. High schools – and their elementary and middle-school counterparts – have moved operations online. </p>
<p>As scholars of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=catzoVsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">young people’s political involvement</a> and activity, we find that this presents a new set of challenges not only for campaigns, but also for democracy.</p>
<p>This election season will be unlike any other. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/2020-campaign-primary-calendar-coronavirus.html">More than a dozen states postponed</a> their Democratic Party primaries. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-starts-to-scramble-presidential-campaign-2020-03-11">Campaigns canceled all in-person events</a>. </p>
<p>Young voters are important to the continuity of democratic society in the U.S., because voting is a habit: <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/becoming-a-habitual-voter-inertia-resources-and-growth-in-young-adulthood/9EA1F561496D714346491B25B0D52239">Starting early leads to continued voting</a>.</p>
<p>By our analysis, more than 15 million youth are newly eligible to vote in their first presidential election in November – and these first-time voters make up almost one-third of all 18- to 29-year-olds eligible to vote in the fall. They’re not in campaigns’ databases either, especially if they are not yet registered to vote, so the political machines’ get-out-the-vote systems won’t reach them.</p>
<p>At the <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/">Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement</a>, part of Tufts University’s <a href="https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/">Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life</a>, we’ve spent nearly two decades researching how best to grow, inform and mobilize young potential voters. Our findings reveal several key actions that parties, campaigns, advocacy organizations, educators and journalists can take to help ensure that all young people are prepared and motivated to vote in the 2020 election and beyond:</p>
<h2>1. Look beyond the college campus</h2>
<p>Universities are valuable sites for voter education and engagement, but campaigns’ and other political organizations’ usual focus on campus-based voter outreach has historically left out most young people. At any given time, <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/school-enrollment/2017-cps.html">45% – less than half</a> – of youth ages 18 to 22 are enrolled in college.</p>
<p>With so many students away from their college campuses now, campaigns and organizers will have to diversify their strategies to reach more young people, in or out of the virtual classroom. In the long run, that shift to be <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/political-outreach-youth-was-effective-2018-midterms">more inclusive of noncollege youth</a> may strengthen democracy as a whole.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327000/original/file-20200409-72664-1r6tkrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A high school student learns at home during the coronavirus pandemic, which has closed schools across the country.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Virus-Outbreak-Illinois/55a94206fb914033bf26811767268db0/121/0">AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh</a></span>
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<h2>2. Discuss elections and voting in at-home learning</h2>
<p>Public schools have a responsibility to prepare their students to participate in democracy. In more than two dozen states, <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/state-statutes-support-growing-voters">policies or statutes explicitly mandate or recommend</a> that schools facilitate voter registration for their students. That responsibility does not end because students are not physically in school. Millions of high schoolers are now participating in online or at-home learning, which could include content about elections and voting.</p>
<p>Many high school seniors are already old enough to vote – or will be by November. <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/preregistration-for-young-voters.aspx">More than 20 states</a> allow people to register to vote before their 18th birthdays, if they will be 18 on or before Election Day. Our research on “<a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/growing-voters-engaging-youth-they-reach-voting-age-strengthen-democracy">growing voters</a>” offers ideas for election administrators and nonpartisan community groups to reach diverse groups of young people through high schools, even if students aren’t in classrooms.</p>
<h2>3. Focus on online voter registration</h2>
<p>Registering to vote sooner rather than later is important. It makes voters visible to campaigns that rely on lists of registered voters for outreach. Research shows that contact by a political campaign or group supporting a candidate <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/political-outreach-youth-was-effective-2018-midterms">is linked to a higher likelihood to vote</a>.</p>
<p>Online voter registration is <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/facilitative-election-laws">a good way to support an increase in voter participation</a> because it can make it easier for young people and other new voters to register. It’s even more vital now that so much must be done remotely.</p>
<p>Currently <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Online_voter_registration">38 states and Washington, D.C.</a>, have online registration, but its availability alone isn’t enough. That’s especially true for young people from low-income backgrounds and marginalized communities. In one CIRCLE study of low-income youth, <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/engaging-broader-youth-electorate-10-recommendations-increasing-voter-engagement">we found that only 17% of young people across several states</a> with online registration successfully used it. Many respondents shared that they ran into problems trying to do so or were unaware it was an option. </p>
<p>Local voter-registration groups, as well as state and local election administrators, can invest in widely promoting online voter registration and develop strategies to help young people with the process.</p>
<h2>4. Remember there are many ways to reach youth</h2>
<p>Our polling from the 2018 midterms <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/youth-engagement-2018-election">highlighted how youth learned about the election</a>: Many did so on social media but also from friends, family and classmates. </p>
<p>As young people interact less in person in the coming weeks and months, campaigns and organizations will need to invest in strategies that take into account who young people are already talking to online – especially those who can serve as trusted sources of information.</p>
<h2>5. Emphasize deeper, sustained digital contact</h2>
<p>Public health recommendations to engage in social distancing and avoid in-person contact will make <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/so-much-slacktivism-youth-translate-online-engagement-offline-political-action">digital organizing and outreach</a> an even more critical part of the 2020 election cycle. </p>
<p>But the goal should be to make digital contact feel more like personal contact. One-off text messages and social media campaigns can be important, but it’s much more effective to engage youth by building relationships, listening to their priorities, sustaining contact over time and creating opportunities for them to use their skills. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327004/original/file-20200409-17471-1nvwrwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Teenage environmental activist Xiuhtezcatl Martinez speaks at a political rally in California in February 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/environmental-activist-and-hip-hop-artist-xiuhtezcatl-news-photo/1200231879">Ronen Tivony/Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>6. Support young leaders</h2>
<p>Building new connections with young potential voters is always difficult; restrictions on events and in-person canvassing will make it even harder. But youth leaders and organizers, many of whom <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/gun-violence-prevention-movement-fueled-youth-engagement-2018-election">have spent recent years growing movements related to issues like gun violence</a> and climate change, may already have the experience, skills, networks and trust to effectively approach youth in their communities. Those leaders may be interested in joining electoral outreach efforts.</p>
<h2>7. Strengthen media connections</h2>
<p>During both public health emergencies and election seasons, the media plays a critical role in keeping people informed. Many young people may now <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-03-25/tv-news-audiences-are-surging-thanks-to-coronavirus-pandemic">rely even more on their local media or news broadcast for information</a>. This presents <a href="http://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/impact-local-news-youth-political-engagement">an opportunity for media organizations</a> to think of youth as a critical audience. They could build trust by partnering with young people in order to include their voices through collaborative digital storytelling, projects that share the information a diversity of youth need to participate, or highlighting what diverse youth are already doing to boost engagement. Accurate and actionable election information is especially critical for people new to the voting process.</p>
<h2>8. Pay attention to the issues</h2>
<p>Young people <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/texans-under-age-40-concerned-about-health-care-believe-effecting-change">care deeply about issues</a> like health care, education, employment, economic justice and racial justice. They are motivated to participate in elections when they see candidates and movements addressing what matters to them and to their communities. Some may be experiencing firsthand, for the first time, how policy decisions play out in ways that drastically shape their lives and the lives of their loved ones. </p>
<p>The coronavirus outbreak and the resulting socioeconomic effects <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-exposing-our-racial-divides/609526/">directly connect to many longstanding political issues</a> that matter to youth. For example, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/27/young-workers-likely-to-be-hard-hit-as-covid-19-strikes-a-blow-to-restaurants-and-other-service-sector-jobs/">young people are at higher risk of reduced employment</a> during the pandemic. This presents an opportunity to underscore the importance of youth engagement in the democratic process as a way for them to explicitly influence crucial issues.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135280/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abby Kiesa is the Director of Impact at CIRCLE, a national research center on youth civic education and engagement at Tufts University's Tisch College of Civic Life. Abby has worked on research projects funded by private foundations including: the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, Youth Engagement Fund, the Democracy Fund, the Spencer Foundation, CloseUp Foundation, Bonner Foundation, Ford Foundation, Corporation for National and Community Service, The Pew Charitable Trusts, S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, MacArthur Foundation, and the Omidyar Network. She is affiliated with Rock the Vote's Democracy Class (Advisory Council), DoSomething.org (Civic Engagement Advisory Board), Generation Citizen/Vote16USA (Advisory Board). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg is the Director of CIRCLE. CIRCLE receives funding from private foundations such as the Ford Foundation, Democracy Fund, MacArthur Foundation, McCormick Foundation, and the Youth Engagement Fund to conduct nonpartisan research about youth and Civic Education and Engagement. CIRCLE also receives indirect funding from the National Endowment for Humanities and the Hewlett Foundation through its nonpartisan partner organizations that receive funding directly from these entities.She is affiliated with the Democracy Works and Generation Citizen as a director of national boards and serve as advisory member for the American Bard Association Standing Commission on Public Education, Project
Citizen Z at Education Week, and Project on Information Literacy. She does not receive compensation from these roles. </span></em></p>Young voters are important to the continuity of democracy because voting at a young age leads to continued voting throughout life. This year more than most, they’ll have a hard time getting started.Abby Kiesa, Director of Impact at CIRCLE, Tufts UniversityKei Kawashima-Ginsberg, Director, Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement in the Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1291562020-01-07T13:58:04Z2020-01-07T13:58:04ZWhy media education in schools needs to be about much more than ‘fake news’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308619/original/file-20200106-123395-goukla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C24%2C5475%2C3639&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/education-school-student-computer-network-technology-397853056">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2019 general election is already being remembered as the one where <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-should-look-closely-at-britains-decision-to-elect-a-man-so-renowned-for-his-untrustworthiness-128733">misinformation went mainstream</a>. It was, of course, already on the political agenda after the 2016 referendum and US election, with growing numbers of <a href="https://crestresearch.ac.uk/resources/russian-influence-uk-terrorist-attacks/">academics</a> and <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1791/179109.htm#_idTextAnchor063">parliament</a> sounding the alarm over foreign actors using so-called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/facebooks-fake-news-plan-is-doomed-to-failure-social-media-must-do-more-to-counter-disinformation-75953">fake news</a>” to disrupt the democratic processes.</p>
<p>But what was seen over the election period was not the work of fringe actors. Instead, major political parties appeared to adopt tactics previously associated with shady players operating at the edges of the information ecosystem. No major party was entirely innocent, as evidenced by <a href="https://firstdraftnews.org/latest/uk-general-election-2019-round-up-voting-day/">First Draft’s Cross Check project</a>. But the Conservatives’ campaign repeatedly adopted controversial tactics. Tactics such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/20/twitter-accuses-tories-of-misleading-public-in-factcheck-row">having its press office pose as a fact-checking service</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50595930">editing BBC news footage</a> to imply that prominent journalists supported the party’s line on Brexit.</p>
<p>Voters, <a href="https://firstdraftnews.org/latest/thousands-of-misleading-conservative-ads-side-step-scrutiny-thanks-to-facebook-policy/">the evidence suggests</a>, were caught in a storm of <a href="https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-did-a-report-really-find-0-of-labour-ads-misleading">misleading Facebook posts</a>, memes and tweaked videos. This was a covert propaganda campaign and its impact has yet to be established.</p>
<p><a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2019-06/DNR_2019_FINAL_1.pdf">Research from the Reuters Institute for News</a> has shown for some time that growing numbers of people in the UK access their news online – 74% in 2018. Over a third (39%) get news via social media.</p>
<p>But recent reports have revealed that the situation is even more complex, with work by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/05/uncovered-reality-of-how-smartphones-turned-election-news-into-chaos">the Guardian</a> and <a href="https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0028/174088/bbc-news-review-deck.pdf">Ofcom</a> showing people over-reporting news consumption, skimming over headlines and consuming so-called news via user-generated memes, celebrity influencer posts and politicians on social media.</p>
<h2>Information crisis</h2>
<p>There have been <a href="https://reformpoliticaladvertising.org/">calls for urgent reform to the laws around political advertising</a> to take account of this confusing digital landscape during elections. This is something that politicians must take seriously in the months that follow.</p>
<p>But there is also space for a bottom-up response to this information crisis. The future electorate must be taught how to navigate the modern news landscape. Young people also need to be helped to understand why – in this age of misinformation – public interest news is more important than ever.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-spot-fake-news-an-experts-guide-for-young-people-88887">How to spot fake news – an expert's guide for young people</a>
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<p>Far from being “digital natives”, evidence from the US points to a generation of young people who have no idea where their information online comes from, or why they are reading it. A <a href="https://ed.stanford.edu/news/stanford-researchers-find-students-have-trouble-judging-credibility-information-online">report by the Stanford History Education Group</a> evaluated the online reasoning skills of 3,446 high school students age 12 to 17 between June 2018 and May 2019. They described the results they found as “troubling”.</p>
<p>There is no evidence to suggest young people in the UK are any better. In fact, the 2018 <a href="https://literacytrust.org.uk/policy-and-campaigns/all-party-parliamentary-group-literacy/fakenews/">Commission on Fake News and the Teaching of Critical Literacy Skills</a> found that only 2% of children have the critical literacy skills needed to identify a credible news story.</p>
<h2>News literacy needed</h2>
<p>A growing number of educators, policy makers and third-sector groups are calling for news and critical digital literacy to be taught in schools, with over <a href="https://literacytrust.org.uk/research-services/research-reports/fake-news-and-critical-literacy-final-report/">half of teachers reporting</a> that the current national curriculum does not equip pupils with the literacy skills they need to tackle fake news.</p>
<p>In its <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1791/1791.pdf">final report on Fake News</a>, published in February 2019, the UK parliament’s Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee reiterated its calls for digital literacy to be the fourth pillar of education alongside reading, writing and maths. But thus far these calls have fallen on deaf ears.</p>
<p>In its <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/2184/2184.pdf">response to the committee’s report</a> the government insisted there was no need, arguing students already study the core components of digital literacy in history, English and IT. There have <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmcumeds/1630/163002.htm">also been suggestions </a> that governmental action is not needed because others are active in this space. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308621/original/file-20200106-123373-yxmmja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">It’s not just children either, half of all people now get their news from social media.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/minsk-belarus-november-6-2016-boy-516190801">AlesiaKan/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>There are indeed news organisations, charities and others running news literacy workshops in schools, covering topics such as how articles are put together, and why news matters. The government-commissioned <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/779882/021919_DCMS_Cairncross_Review_.pdf">Cairncross review into the future of journalism</a> highlighted some of these and suggested that more collaboration between them could be encouraged as part of a governmental media literacy strategy. </p>
<p>These initiatives, such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/newswise">NewsWise</a>, a Google-funded partnership between the Guardian Foundation and the National Literacy Trust aimed at primary school children, do valuable work. But many are limited in scope and scale, reliant on external funding and in most cases not subject to any independent evaluation or benchmarking.</p>
<p>And the numbers do not add up. There are close to nine million schoolchildren in England according to <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/812539/Schools_Pupils_and_their_Characteristics_2019_Main_Text.pdf">Department for Education figures</a> from 2018-2019. But such initiatives are reaching no more than 10,000 children – and that is a generous estimate. This is insufficient to deal with the scale of the challenge.</p>
<h2>Check your sources</h2>
<p>After he found himself at the centre of a “fake news” row about a genuine picture his newspaper published of a boy lying on the floor of Leeds General Infirmary during the final week of the election campaign, <a href="https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/health/do-not-believe-a-stranger-on-social-media-who-disappears-into-the-night-an-open-letter-from-our-editor-to-you-1-10147697">the editor of the Yorkshire Post urged readers</a> not to trust a social media poster who “disappears into the night”. Instead, he urged them to appreciate the difference between that and verified, independent and accountable journalism.</p>
<p>But this is easier said than done. News is no longer spoon-fed by a handful of gatekeeper media outlets. This is not a bad thing, but to enable tomorrow’s votes to adopt a healthy news diet, schools must equip them with the skills to do this. And the government needs to act to make this happen sooner rather than later.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Yeoman receives funding from the British Academy/ Leverhulme small research grants fund for her research work on news literacy education. She also holds a bursary from the Association of Journalism Educators. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Morris receives funding from the British Academy/ Leverhulme small research grants fund for her research work on news literacy education.
She is a member of the Green Party of England and Wales.</span></em></p>Only 2% of children have the skills needed to identify a credible news story.Frances Yeoman, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, Liverpool John Moores UniversityKate Morris, Lecturer in Journalism, Goldsmiths, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1286192019-12-12T18:54:57Z2019-12-12T18:54:57ZDon’t believe the stereotype: these 5 charts show our democracy is safe in the hands of future voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306013/original/file-20191210-95111-1261rz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C91%2C4329%2C2816&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Almost 900 school kids, aged 12 to 17, were surveyed.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A new, ongoing survey on how young Australians understand and imagine their democracy is already challenging long-held stereotypes. </p>
<p>The survey – conducted for <em><a href="https://www.democracy2025.gov.au/">Democracy 2025</a></em> – will eventually draw on the 90,000 students and teachers who engage with the Museum of Australian Democracy’s learning program, Ignite. </p>
<p>Here, we capture some key findings from the baseline survey of 857 school visitors, aged 12 to 17, who travelled to the museum from all over Australia this year.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/revealed-how-australian-politicians-would-bridge-the-trust-divide-125217">Revealed: how Australian politicians would bridge the trust divide</a>
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<p>Our findings are optimistic – they challenge the idea that young voters are apathetic, and show that future voters are champions of democracy, committed to changing the direction of Australian politics. </p>
<p>In short, it’s not that young people don’t like politics; rather, they want to do politics differently to older generations and want to see a different agenda of change. </p>
<h2>Democracy is safe</h2>
<p>The responses captured in the chart below show two thirds of future voters believe democracy is the best option for the future government of Australia. </p>
<p><iframe id="kSfGV" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kSfGV/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Most of the remaining respondents are not sure, and only a small percentage think democracy is not the best option. No respondents answered “definitely not”. </p>
<p>Contrary to the argument there has been a <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/charts-that-show-young-people-losing-faith-in-democracy/">generational decline</a> in support for democracy, these findings suggest that if you look at those approaching voting age, democracy is safe in their hands. </p>
<p>This good news is reinforced by the findings shown in the chart below, with two-thirds expressing some interest in politics. Yet compared to current voters, nearly twice as many young voters say they have no interest in politics. </p>
<p><iframe id="I69fH" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/I69fH/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>That interest will most likely grow as future voters reach adulthood, not least because there are key issues they feel passionately about.</p>
<p>We also asked future voters to identify the top issues they cared about most. Mental health, bullying, gender equality and climate change were identified as the most important issues, and recognition for Indigenous Australians came fifth. </p>
<p>While future voters we surveyed were wedded to the same core issues, female respondents felt more strongly about each issue. We also found there were greater differences over equal gender rights and Indigenous recognition.</p>
<p>Other issues of concern to older generations, such as job security, cost of living or Australia becoming a republic, were not viewed as pressing. Even age-appropriate issues such as lowering the voting age to 16 years or abolishing university tuition fees didn’t register.</p>
<p><iframe id="X6Ggr" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/X6Ggr/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>These choices are interesting. Do they tell us about how young Australians view their lives now, and how they see future challenges? Or do they reflect the success of school debates on these issues? </p>
<p>It’s also worth noting these issues are not at the forefront of the core political agenda. Future voters might be about to reshape politics around a small “l” liberal policy agenda. </p>
<h2>Where future voters learn about politics</h2>
<p>Another question we asked was where future voters get their information about politics. We expected the internet to be top here, but were surprised by the focus on traditional sources such as school, TV, family, friends and the community. </p>
<p><iframe id="2O8kW" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2O8kW/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Is the internet seen as a source of entertainment, rather than political engagement? Or is this finding part of the standard story of socialisation, where political understanding is mostly taken from sources closer at hand? </p>
<p>In any case, it’s clear young Australians are informed through mainstream sources and are not captured by internet radicals or fake news. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/giving-voice-to-the-young-survey-shows-people-want-under-18s-involved-in-politics-83101">Giving voice to the young: survey shows people want under-18s involved in politics</a>
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<p>We also wanted to know if future voters think they are being well prepared for their role as citizens? This involves understanding their rights and responsibilities, their role as voters and their participation options. </p>
<p>There is another positive message to be taken from the chart below, in that it shows almost half of future voters think they are being well prepared for this role. </p>
<p>But it also tells us about half our respondents fall into categories suggesting they’re not sure, or very clearly believe they’re not being prepared for the future.</p>
<p>In school report terms, citizenship education could be given the assessment: “reasonable progress is being made, but must try harder”. We may need to re-ignite the way we teach or talk about politics to future voters.</p>
<p><iframe id="9yB7d" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9yB7d/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>While we’ve provided only a glimpse of the findings we have generated, there is still considerable food for thought and debate. Not least, we show that far from demonising young Australians, we should consider them the sail of Australian democracy, not the anchor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128619/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Evans is presently in receipt of research funding from the Commonwealth Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet for a project on public trust in regional government public services delivered by the Australian Public Service.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gerry Stoker receives funding from the UK's Economic and Social Research Council for the project <a href="http://www.trustgov.net">www.trustgov.net</a></span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Max Halupka does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s not that young people don’t like politics – they just want to do politics differently.Mark Evans, Professor of Governance and Director of Democracy 2025 - bridging the trust divide at Old Parliament House, University of CanberraGerry Stoker, Fellow and Centenary Professor, Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of CanberraMax Halupka, Senior research fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1284912019-12-10T14:15:21Z2019-12-10T14:15:21ZYoung people can change the general election – here’s how to get your friends to vote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306100/original/file-20191210-95111-1tc0fz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=117%2C960%2C5783%2C3834&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A record breaking <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/register-vote-deadline-record-young-labour-general-election-a9219391.html">3.85 million people</a> applied to register to vote in this election campaign, including <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-teenagers-uk-citizens-voters-first-time-920351">thousands of first-time voters</a>. All in all, two-thirds of applications came from <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/politics/news/108219/more-3-million-people-apply-vote-general-election-deadline-looms">young people aged 35 and under</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, young people are ready to be creative and think differently about this election. For example, 53% of students recently told the education think-tank HEPI they were <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/general-election-brexit-students-tactical-voting-eu-higher-education-policy-institute-a9188141.html">ready to vote tactically</a>, using tools such as <a href="http://tactical.vote">tactical.vote</a>.</p>
<p>So what can young people do this week to change the election? With just days left before the UK votes, it’s now or never for young voters. Here are three things young people can do that could change the result of the general election.</p>
<h2>1. Vote – and get others to vote too</h2>
<p>It’s a cold, hard fact that young people are not reliable voters. In 2017, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/08/world/europe/young-voters-uk-election-brexit.html">young voters upended the political campaign</a>. On election day some pollsters <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election">had the Conservatives leading by 12%-13% nationally</a> but the turnout of young people is credited, in large part, for Theresa May’s shock loss of her majority. Even so, only 40-50% of registered voters in their teens and twenties voted, compared to about 80% of those aged in their 70s. Whatever you make of the actual result in 2017, this shows how much influence young voters can have.</p>
<p>Young voters can learn from the climate strikes, which have blossomed so rapidly into a global movement <a href="http://eprints.keele.ac.uk/6536/1/Protest%20for%20a%20future_GCS%2015.03.19%20Descriptive%20Report-2.pdf">this year</a>. When building a movement, the personal is political. Climate strikers have been very good at sharing their commitment with schoolmates, classmates and friends, as well as strangers. And they do it by talking about their own personal feelings as well as the policy points.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1024&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1024&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306103/original/file-20191210-95138-1shys0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1024&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Young voters can learn a lot from the climate strikes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Drew / Ben Bowman</span></span>
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<p>So you could apply their approach to this election. Take a piece of paper and a pen. Write a list of people you can contact – especially your friends, but also people you have been to class with, or your workmates. </p>
<p>Next, write next to each name how you’ll contact them. For many years, studies have shown <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2004.00280.x">face-to-face contact is the most effective way</a> to get people out to vote. So if you can go talk to someone in person, it’s worth the effort. Failing that, a phone call is the next best thing. </p>
<p>Before you go speak to each voter you should think about what you’ll say. Honesty is the best policy. Why are you voting? Tell a story from your life about what motivates you to be a voter.</p>
<p>Tell them you’re a voter and, if you can, tell them others are doing it too. A lot of people feel like their vote doesn’t count, but knowing others are voters too gives them a sense that they’re part of something bigger. If you say: “I’m a voter, and so are Susan, John and Fatima, and you can be too”, that’s a lot more powerful than asking someone to vote alone. </p>
<p>If you’re backing a particular party, remember to say which one and why. It’s OK to be honest about where you’re coming from. You don’t have to be unbiased. Respect that your friends can make their own minds up for themselves, but let them know your decision too.</p>
<h2>2. Make a plan to vote, and help other people to plan</h2>
<p>Making a plan means knowing the facts.</p>
<ul>
<li><p><em>Do you know where to vote?</em>
Find your polling station on <a href="https://wheredoivote.co.uk/">https://wheredoivote.co.uk/</a>. Your polling station will open at 7am and close at 10pm. </p></li>
<li><p><em>Do you know how to vote?</em>
You don’t need ID, you don’t need your polling card. You just need to turn up at the polling station. If you’re registered to vote, then your ballot will be there. Lots of young people don’t know this, so you can remind them. Again, you don’t need ID.</p></li>
<li><p><em>Do you know when you will vote?</em>
Have a plan. Personally, I’ll vote in the morning before I start work, but the evening is just as good. When you call your friends, make sure you ask them if they have a plan too. Find out what time they’re going, and call to check up on them. </p></li>
<li><p><em>Emergency proxy voting</em>
In some circumstances – if due to an emergency based on disability, or an emergency based on your job – you may be able to give someone else permission to vote on your behalf. But the form needs to get to your electoral registration office by 5pm on polling day. Find out the restrictions and how to register for an emergency proxy vote <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/voter/voting-person-post-or-proxy/voting-proxy">here</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>3. Show some love</h2>
<p>Maybe this sounds silly, but it has been a hard election for a lot of people. You can make a difference to your friends and classmates by supporting them. Listen to them, and listen to how they feel. </p>
<p>If they disagree with you, don’t ask “why” questions that put them on the spot. Better to ask: “Could you tell me more about that?”, or: “Could you describe how that feels?”. </p>
<p>A lot of young people I work with have never had someone to listen to them – and when it comes to voting, they’ve heard it all before: vote or you’re lazy, vote or you lose your voice. But so many young people feel like they don’t have a voice to begin with. So take some time to listen. If they’re undecided on whether to vote, or who to vote for, offer to explain how you reached your choice.</p>
<p>Finally, if you speak to a friend who is totally committed to not voting, please remind them they can spoil their ballot. Spoiled ballots are counted in this country – and some even get read by the candidates.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300097/original/file-20191104-88382-xr3pj3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerC">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128491/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Bowman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Young people have registered to vote in record numbers. Here are three things every young person can do to change the election.Benjamin Bowman, Lecturer, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1042512019-03-26T17:58:42Z2019-03-26T17:58:42ZShould Australia lower the voting age to 16? We asked five experts<p>Voting is a key part of the democratic process. It allows all citizens of a certain age to have a say on matters important to them. Voting in federal elections and referendums is compulsory for every Australian aged 18 and over. </p>
<p>But decisions made by elected governments – especially in areas such as education, health and energy – impact young people too. Legal and political voices <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voting-age-should-be-lowered-to-16-law-expert-argues-20180711-p4zqvx.html">have long called</a> for Australia to lower the voting age to 16. After all, people under 18 can leave school, get a job, drive a car and pay taxes. So why not vote? </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/VotingAge">parliamentary inquiry</a> is currently looking into the issue. In the meantime, we asked five experts their views. Here’s what they said.</p>
<h2>Five out of five experts said yes</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265798/original/file-20190326-36256-f4yfzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265798/original/file-20190326-36256-f4yfzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265798/original/file-20190326-36256-f4yfzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=99&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265798/original/file-20190326-36256-f4yfzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=99&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265798/original/file-20190326-36256-f4yfzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=99&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265798/original/file-20190326-36256-f4yfzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=125&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265798/original/file-20190326-36256-f4yfzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=125&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265798/original/file-20190326-36256-f4yfzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=125&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p><strong><em>Here are their detailed responses:</em></strong></p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-380" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/380/ce0d64837770537eaafa526411256bbe8729e548/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p><em>If you have a “<strong>yes or no</strong>” education question you’d like posed to Five Experts, email your suggestion to: sasha.petrova@theconversation.edu.au</em></p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210303/original/file-20180314-113452-h7un11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210303/original/file-20180314-113452-h7un11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210303/original/file-20180314-113452-h7un11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210303/original/file-20180314-113452-h7un11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210303/original/file-20180314-113452-h7un11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210303/original/file-20180314-113452-h7un11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210303/original/file-20180314-113452-h7un11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Disclosures: Louise Phillips has received competitively awarded funding from The Spencer Foundation, and the Queensland Department of Education, and is a current member of the Early Childhood Australia and the Australian Association for Research in Education.</em></p>
<p><em>Philippa Collin has received funding from a range of government and quasi-government agencies (NHMRC, Australian Research Council, Department for Industry and Innovation, Western Australian Children’s Commissioner, UNICEF) as well as industry (Google, Navitas English) and non-profits (Multicultural Youth Affairs Network NSW and the Foundation for Young Australians). She is a member of the Technology and Well-being Roundtable and the Australian NGO Child Rights Task Force and an expert advisor to the Raising Children Network.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
People under 18 can leave school, get a job, drive a car and pay taxes. Should they be allowed to vote too?Sasha Petrova, Section Editor: EducationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.