Making sense of the polls
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Morgan’s latest poll from last weekend had a sample of over 4,500. Under the previous election’s preferences, the two party result was 52-48 to the Coalition; this was very much in line with the consensus…
This Week’s Polls As before, the table below shows the poll, two party result, change from last issue of that poll, fieldwork dates and sample size. Note the increased sample sizes in Newspoll and Morgan…
Betting Markets Are betting markets really a good way to predict the result of an election? In most Federal elections, they have got the result right, but an exception was 1993, when Keating won what seemed…
This Week’s Polls As before, the table below shows the poll, two party result, change from the last issue of that poll, fieldwork dates and approximate sample size. Other than Monday’s Essential sample…
These issues are actually not specific to Queensland, but they apply most to Queensland at this election. The Sophomore Surge Effect At the 2010 election, Labor lost seven Queensland seats to the Coalition…
This Week’s Polls As before, the table below shows the poll, that poll’s two party result, change from the last issue of that poll, fieldwork dates and sample size. The vast majority of interviews would…
Follow the PM’s Approval Rating, not the Preferred PM If the election is competitive, the Preferred PM measure will invariably show the incumbent with a big lead over the opposition leader. The opposition…
This Week’s Polls As before, the table below will show the poll’s two party result, shift from the last release of that poll, fieldwork dates and approximate sample size (click to enlarge). While Essential’s…
What affects a Poll’s Margin of Error? There are two things that affect the margin of error (MOE). They are the poll’s sample size (n) and the estimated or assumed proportion (p); the estimated proportion…
Introduction I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian…