tag:theconversation.com,2011:/columns/amitabh-mattoo-2106A Billion Voices – The Conversation2014-06-12T02:18:31Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/279182014-06-12T02:18:31Z2014-06-12T02:18:31ZThe Modi foreign policy doctrine: India as a smart power
<p>The opening address by the President of India to the new Parliament is really an occasion for the new government to outline its policy agenda for the next five years. The presidential address on June 9 was probably one of the most ambitious in the history of independent India: the goal of building 100 new smart cities; a promise to provide urban facilities to rural India; a commitment to providing basic needs (housing, electricity and clean drinking water) to every Indian by the 75th anniversary of Indian independence (2022); and a pledge to ensure that the demographic dividend of a youthful India is realised through a massive programme of skilling as well opening an Indian Institute of Technology and an Indian Institute of Management in every state. </p>
<p>It was on foreign policy, however, that the Modi government was most surprising.</p>
<p>Power is the ability to influence the behaviour of others. In international relations, as the Harvard academic <a href="http://joenye.com/papers">Joseph Nye</a> reminds us, power can be exercised in three ways: by threatening or actually using military force, by offering economic incentives or imposing economic sanctions, or by building what Nye famously dubbed “soft power”. That is, the soft power of nations to persuade others based on the attractiveness of their technology, politics, culture, ideas or ideals. </p>
<p>If president Pranab Mukherjee’s opening address to the Indian parliament is anything to go by, the foreign policy of the new Indian government under prime minister Narendra Modi will likely employ a nuanced combination of all three of Nye’s instruments of international influence. All those who had expected the Modi foreign policy doctrine to be defined by a new muscularity or even machtpolitik – the wielding of the conventional stick - will probably be disappointed. </p>
<p>Instead, there will be a renewed emphasis on using the carrots of economic levers and soft power. This suggests a thoughtful understanding of the importance of what Nye terms “smart power”: a clever combination of the tools of conventional hard, or military and economic, power and soft power. It is this integrated approach that will best serve India in a complex interdependent world, which is defined as much by conflict and competition as it is by cooperation and the need for greater coordination in confronting common global threats.</p>
<p>The incipient Modi doctrine has five key elements. First, and most important, is the idea that a strong, self-reliant and self-confident India will pursue a foreign policy of “enlightened national interest”. National interest is a contested term; enlightened national interest even more so. Often national interest is defined as raison d’ etat, or “reason of state”, and can be viewed as the selfish pursuit of national ambitions, mostly as defined by the government of the day. </p>
<p>Enlightened national interest adds a moral prism to the policy. When Alexis de Tocqueville wrote his masterly <a href="https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/de-tocqueville/democracy-america/introduction.htm">Democracy in America</a>, in the early 19th century, he described enlightened self-interest as that which made the United States unique: the ability of its citizens to work for the common good because the pursuit of a better life for everyone serves the self-interest of all.</p>
<p>In international diplomacy, enlightened national interest is arguably the recognition that the narrow pursuit of self-interest in an interdependent world can lead to sub-optimal policy outcomes. Japan - a nation Modi clearly admires - has used the term enlightened national-interest to define many of its policies, including those steering its overseas development assistance. Through supporting other nations via giving and via attractive development funding and loans, Japan has greatly increased its regional influence. The concept opens up the possibilities of creating cooperative outcomes for many issues, even those traditionally seen as difficult, zero-sum conflicts by realists in the establishment.</p>
<p>Within the Indian tradition, this sense of enlightened national-interest is captured in this verse from Hindu scripture, the Mahoupinishad, “Only small men discriminate by saying ‘one is a relative, the other is a stranger’. For those who live magnanimously the entire world constitutes but a family.” Its essence, it may be recalled, can be found in the BJP’s manifesto as well. </p>
<p>And while Mr Modi may not be comfortable with this notion, his idea of enlightened national interest sits at ease with Nehruvian thinking. After all, it was Jawaharlal Nehru who believed that while foreign policy must be rooted in a spirit of realism, it should not be stymied by the narrow realism that lets you look only at the tip of the nose and little beyond. </p>
<p>Second, is the idea that India will help to build and strengthen a democratic, peaceful, stable and economically inter-linked neighbourhood. This, of course, is not particularly new thinking. In the past, the Gujral Doctrine was perhaps the strongest articulation of a policy of reaching out to the neighbourhood, even through gestures that did not demand reciprocity. What was both novel and encouraging, however, was the presence of heads of government or senior representatives from all the South Asian countries at the swearing in of Prime Minister Modi and his Cabinet, effectively turning the ceremony into a regional celebration of democracy. </p>
<p>In the recent past, India has not been explicitly seen as a champion of democracy in the region. Whether or not the strong links in other parts of the world between mature democracies - and absence of conflict – are mirrored in South Asia, it is clear that the strengthening of democracy in the region is the first step towards building what the political scientist, Karl Deutsch, described as a security community. That is, a region in which the large scale use of violence has become unthinkable.</p>
<p>That said, it must be recognised that only a strong and economically resurgent India can lead the process of South Asia integration and so much will now depend on how quickly India’s economy can be revived. Meanwhile, however, enlightened national interest will demand India considers making unilateral gestures to serve longer-term self-interest. For instance, arriving at an accord on the sharing of the Teesta rivers with a stridently India-friendly regime in Bangladesh would clearly be an important step that should not be undermined by the capricious behaviour of one leader from West Bengal.</p>
<p>Third is Modi’s emphasis on soft-power, explained through yet another Modi alliteration of five Ts: tradition, talent, tourism, trade and technology. For this to translate into reality, will require real effort. For a start, the Ministry of External Affairs will need to be restructured and every major mission abroad would need to include a trade, scientific and cultural counsellor knowledgeable in the relevant domains. </p>
<p>In addition, the role of the Diaspora in the future development of India has been emphasised. One clear step that would ensure deeper engagement between India and the Diaspora would be to allow Non Resident Indians to carry dual passports. For many Indians continuing to hold an Indian passport is a badge of honour which they will not give up for any convenience, glory or money. Allowing dual citizenship for NRIs carries virtually no additional risk; and indeed most countries in the world allow their citizens this privilege.</p>
<p>Fourth, the incipient Modi doctrine moves beyond the former delineation between “non-alignment”, “non-alignment 2.0”, and “alignment” to suggest that India could follow a policy of what MP Shashi Tharoor may describe as “multi-track alignment” with all the great powers. This was emphasised in the President’s address that explicitly stated the government will work with China to develop a strategic and cooperative partnership, work with Japan to build modern infrastructure, build on the firm foundations of the relations with Russia, pursue the relationship with the United States with renewed vigour and make concerted efforts to achieve progress in key areas with the European Union.</p>
<p>Finally, there was only about 50 words of the address devoted to what may have been seen, pre-election, as the most vital part of a future Modi government’s foreign policy: the willingness to raise issues of concern at a bilateral level (read Pakistan) and the uncontroversial claim that stability can only be built in the region if there is an end of the export of terrorism. Clearly, concerns about Pakistan have deliberately not been emphasised as this may still be a work in progress. Or perhaps the Modi government recognises that there is much merit in the adage: carry a big stick, but speak with a soft voice. For, in the past, as my colleague Ashok Guha once remarked: “India has carried a tooth pick, and shouted from the roof top and from television studios.”</p>
<p>If the Narendra Modi government can deliver on the promises within the President’s speech, it will make history. If he lets himself be distracted by divisive social issues or is provoked into adopting zealous nationalism, he will prove his critics right. </p>
<p>As the election results were announced, I was interviewed by a Chinese Radio station. The first question they asked me was whether Narendra Modi would be India’s Deng Xiaoping. I replied tentatively that it was too early to tell and that, in any case, India was a messy democracy and not an authoritarian state. However, if Modi does want to be like an Indian Deng, it is well worth recalling the great Chinese leader’s 24 Character Strategy: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, India requires stability within and peace in our neighbourhood and beyond for at least the next decade to emerge as great power of some standing. During that period it is best not to get dragged in external conflicts, assume leadership or prominence on the international stage, or attract attention. That will be Mr Modi’s biggest challenge.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>A version of this article appeared in The Hindu.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The opening address by the President of India to the new Parliament is really an occasion for the new government to outline its policy agenda for the next five years. The presidential address on June 9…Amitabh Mattoo, Director - Australia India Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/267582014-05-16T08:54:57Z2014-05-16T08:54:57ZThe man who dines alone
<p>Love him or loathe him, there is no denying that only Narendra Modi can claim credit for the landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party in India’s just-concluded 16th General Election. </p>
<p>The BJP fought the election on the basis of just one issue: the personality and track record of Modi. Modi spoke at nearly 400 public rallies during the campaign, and at each rally he was treated – as the journalist Swapan Dasgupta put it – like a rock star. A decisive, clear-thinking leader, Modi had a simple message: the magic of the Gujarat model of development (a state he has ruled for more than a decade) and how it can be replicated in the rest of India. </p>
<p>He communicated this forcefully to an impatient young India (600 million people under the age of 25) angry with the establishment and the ruling Congress Party for letting them down, and looking for hope. In contrast, the much younger heir apparent of the Congress, Rahul Gandhi, seemed disconnected, elusive and unable to defend his government, which seemed – at least in the last five years - directionless and massively corrupt.</p>
<p>There was, in reality, no contest. You could have predicted this election many months ago, when you saw every captain of Indian industry pay their obeisance to Modi at the Vibrant Gujarat summit in January last year, and when you saw rage in the eyes of the young and the helplessness at the massive movement against corruption in 2011.</p>
<p>But Modi is a classic Manichean figure. He invites awe, admiration and devotion amongst his followers; and deep fear and even hatred amongst his detractors. While Modi seems to have united, in this election, more than 80 percent of Hindus (85 percent of the population of India) across caste, linguistic and regional divisions, there are few amongst the Muslims (13 percent of the population; about 140 million) who trust him.</p>
<p>As chief Minister of Gujarat or as a prime ministerial candidate he could afford to ignore the minorities. No longer so as the Prime Minister of India. One of his first tasks will be to reassure the minorities that they can be safe, secure and successful in Modi’s India. The best way to do this is by focusing on the agenda for economic growth and good governance (and the opening up of new opportunities for young people) that has made Gujarat the envy of other states. Modi must pay a little heed to many within and outside his party who may want him to advance potentially divisive social and political issues. </p>
<p>Narendra Modi famously likes to dine alone. If as Prime Minister of India he learns to break bread even with his detractors, and delivers on the faith that young India has reposed in him, he will ensure that his party will stay in power even beyond this election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26758/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Love him or loathe him, there is no denying that only Narendra Modi can claim credit for the landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party in India’s just-concluded 16th General Election. The BJP fought…Amitabh Mattoo, Director - Australia India Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/244792014-03-17T04:38:38Z2014-03-17T04:38:38ZHoli, Uttar Pradesh and the spirit of the Indian general election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44075/original/9ztsf3w8-1395030506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Holi: The Festival of Colours</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/paulalyn/10049196886/sizes/m/">PaulaLyn/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44075/original/9ztsf3w8-1395030506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44075/original/9ztsf3w8-1395030506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44075/original/9ztsf3w8-1395030506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44075/original/9ztsf3w8-1395030506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44075/original/9ztsf3w8-1395030506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44075/original/9ztsf3w8-1395030506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44075/original/9ztsf3w8-1395030506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/44075/original/9ztsf3w8-1395030506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Holi: The Festival of Colours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/paulalyn/10049196886/sizes/m/">PaulaLyn/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Today is Holi, celebrated as the festival of colours in many parts of India and at its cultural best in India’s most populous, politically powerful and most ungovernable state, Uttar Pradesh (UP). Until 1977, every prime minister of India had been elected from Uttar Pradesh.</p>
<p>With a population nearly ten times that of Australia, UP’s 200 million people are nearly a country on their own, lying at the heart of the most fertile land in the Indian sub-continent, between the two great rivers of the Indus and Ganges. A small town in Eastern UP, Mirzapur sets the time for all of India; Indian Standard Time is calculated on the basis of the clock tower in the centre of the town. Whoever “wins” UP, has traditionally ruled independent India, with some notable exceptions.</p>
<p>Again, in this general election, UP is where the fate of the general election may well be decided. Holi this year can thus be expected to be even more wild and boisterous than usual.</p>
<p>Holi marks the arrival of spring after winter, a period of renewal and fresh energy. It is the inspiration for Colour Run – started in the United States but now part of Australia as well - described as the happiest five-kilometre run for happiness, health and individuality - where you get plastered with paint as you run. Among Hindus it marks the victory of good over evil and is also associated with the life of the young Lord Krishna.</p>
<p>While Holi is generally played with dry colour, and wet paint throughout UP, a particular version, the Lath Mar Holi, re-enacts the “naughtiness” associated with the teenage Krishna who famously teased his beloved Radha and her village friends, the Gopis. Today, men from Krishna’s village Nandgaon visit Radha’s Barsana and are playfully “beaten” with sticks (Laths) by the women from the village. Holi, in essence, is the great equaliser, as all hierarchies break down and there is a new joie de vivre and an affirmation of life in all its colours.</p>
<p>Until recently, few major blockbusters of Bollywood could do without a Holi song-and-dance number. The most famous is the one sung and danced to by India’s most popular actor, Amitabh Bachchan, in the 1981 movie Silsala. </p>
<p>Bachchan, who had a short-lived career in politics as well, used the song, Rang Barse, during the 1984 electoral campaign in his hometown, UP’s Allahabad, which sits on the confluence of the Ganges, Yamuna and the mythical Swaraswati rivers and where the Kumbh Mela is held. Bachchan won the Lok Sabha seat by one of the highest margins in India’s electoral history, but later resigned in disgust, describing politics as a “cesspool”.</p>
<p>Eight of India’s 16 prime ministers have come from UP and the state sends 80 representatives to the Lok Sabha – more than any other state in India. Interestingly, UP was a creation of the British seeking to manipulate the geography of India to serve their interests after the first Indian war of Independence in 1857 - referred to by the Imperialists as the Great Indian Mutiny. The new state was initially called the North Western Provinces of Agra and Oudh, and in 1902 was renamed the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Provinces_of_Agra_and_Oudh">United Provinces of Agra and Oudh</a> and popularly referred to as the United Provinces or its acronym UP.</p>
<p>UP became Uttar Pradesh or the Northern State after India’s independence. In 1999, the hilly parts of UP were carved into a new state of Uttarakhand. There are continued demands for a further reorganisation of UP into new states in what is administratively one of the most poorly governed states of India.</p>
<p>UP is a mirror of the complexities and contradictions of India. Religion and caste have traditionally played an important role in electoral calculations. Until the late 1970s, the Congress Party was able to translate the support of the upper-caste Brahmins, Dalits at the bottom of the caste hierarchy and the Muslim minority into an unbeatable electoral constituency. The Jat leader, Chaudhuri Charan Singh (representing the middle peasantry) was the only non-Congress chief minister until 1977.</p>
<p>The 1980s and 1990s saw this traditional caste and religious arithmetic collapse. The Congress’s political influence in the state declined as castes became more discreet kinship groups rather hierarchical steps in a social ladder.</p>
<p>The upper-caste Hindus, including the Brahmins, moved to the more nationalistic Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), believing that the Congress was appeasing the Muslims. The Muslims themselves felt no longer protected under the Congress and built a coalition with the intermediate castes, led by the Yadavs, and the new Samajwadi Party. The Dalits’ political awakening led to a revolt from the Congress (they believed that the Congress had used them as a vote bank) and the formation of the Bahajun Samaj Party.</p>
<p>2014 will witness at least a four-cornered contest in UP, with three prime ministerial aspirants all contesting from UP and that is only one of the reasons that UP is electorally unpredictable. Gujarat’s chief minister and BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, will contest from Varanasi - one of the holiest cities for the Hindus. The Common Man’s Party (Aam Admi Party) leader, Arvind Kejriwal, has threatened to contest against Modi, while Rahul Gandhi of the Congress will fight from his regular constituency, Amethi.</p>
<p>The biggest opinion survey conducted so by the television network NDTV suggests that BJP will be the main gainer and could win half of UP’s parliamentary seats. Indeed without winning at least 40 seats in UP, Modi’s prime ministerial ambitions could come to nought. UP has produced eight prime ministers but it has also been the slayer of many a prime ministerial ambition. </p>
<p>Traditionally, on the day of Holi, Bhangwith Thandai (a beverage of sweet cold milk mixed with leaves and buds of the cannabis plant) is drunk in the morning to give you that heady festive feeling. But with elections around the corner no Bhang will be needed to raise spirits in Uttar Pradesh.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24479/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Today is Holi, celebrated as the festival of colours in many parts of India and at its cultural best in India’s most populous, politically powerful and most ungovernable state, Uttar Pradesh (UP). Until…Amitabh Mattoo, Director - Australia India Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/241072014-03-07T01:12:12Z2014-03-07T01:12:12ZWorld’s largest democracy goes to the polls: an expert’s guide to the Indian election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43351/original/yqt9b3kf-1394153932.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As the largest democratic nation in the world, voting takes place over 6 weeks in 9 phases. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/internationalrivers/3438744451/">Flickr/International Rivers</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43351/original/yqt9b3kf-1394153932.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43351/original/yqt9b3kf-1394153932.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43351/original/yqt9b3kf-1394153932.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43351/original/yqt9b3kf-1394153932.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43351/original/yqt9b3kf-1394153932.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43351/original/yqt9b3kf-1394153932.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43351/original/yqt9b3kf-1394153932.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43351/original/yqt9b3kf-1394153932.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">As the largest democratic nation in the world, voting in India takes place over 6 weeks in 9 phases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/internationalrivers/3438744451/">Flickr/International Rivers</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The great Indian festival of democracy has just begun…</p>
<p>General elections in the world’s largest democracy are always a reflection of the complexities of India and its stark contradictions. The 2014 parliamentary elections, announced on Wednesday, promise to be even more argumentative and confrontational than the 15 elections held in the past, as 815 million adult citizens decide who is going to govern India next, with polling in 28 states spread over nine phases from 7 April to 12 May. </p>
<p>The votes will be counted through Electronic Voting Machines on 16 May and a new government should be in place shortly thereafter. At the centre of the election is the contest between the ruling Congress Party-led United Progressive alliance and the National Democratic Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party. While the contest is, at one level, about leadership, governance and policies, elections in the country are more fundamentally about the idea of modern India itself and its abiding faith in the ability of its citizens to make the right choice.</p>
<p>When in 1947, India - independent from British rule - opted to be a constitutional democracy, few gave it much of a chance. Democracies had thrived where there was a reasonable degree of homogeneity and where the basic needs of citizens had been met. In contrast, India’s diversity – linguistic, ethnic, religious and regional – was overwhelming and it was home to some of the world’s poorest. But except for a brief period between 1975 and 1977, Indian democracy has not just thrived but succeeded beyond the expectations of even the most optimistic.</p>
<p>The puzzle of Indian democracy is even more fascinating because countries within the region (detached from the British empire at about the same time) and parts of Africa and Latin America which experimented with democracy have had a less fortunate tryst with the ballot box. What has been responsible for India’s success with the democratic political system? Was it the benefit of a wise leadership at birth that was committed to the democratic way? Was it India’s comprehensive constitution that created an elaborate system of checks and balances that would prevent India’s descent into authoritarianism? Was it the policies of affirmative action that would allow for social mobility and prevent a popular revolutionary zeal? Was it the steel frame of the conservative bureaucracy that ensured that institutional processes rather than individual whims would define the way India would be governed? Or was democracy, as the Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen would put it, part of a long-standing civilisational tradition of debate, dissent and even heterodoxy in India - almost part of the DNA of the “argumentative” Indian?</p>
<p>Academics will continue to interrogate the wonder of Indian democracy, but for the next two months India, Indians, and the world outside can enjoy this riotous festival. Louder, bigger and more colorful than the Mardi Gras, the Carnival and La Tomatina put together, the 16th Indian general election promises to overturn many stereotypes.</p>
<p>Will the traditional electoral arithmetic based on calculations of caste, religion, and language prevail? Or is there a new pan Indian sentiment for good governance and new opportunities that will be decisive? Will it be primarily a two-way contest between the BJP and the Congress (with smaller regional parties aligning with one or the other)? Or is there a chance of a Third Front? And what are the chances of the new Aam Admi Party (AAP: the common man’s party) which made a stunning recent debut in the state elections in the country’s capital? Will the 100 million young, impatient and assertive Indians make a difference? Or will the old order rule the roost again? Will an agenda for absolute economic growth take precedence over more inclusive growth – even while there is, in reality, no such Manichean choice?</p>
<p>But most attention will perhaps be paid, by the media, to the leadership: the feisty oratory of the BJP’s thrice-elected Gujarat chief minister, Narendra Modi who invites extreme passions; contrasted with the mild almost reclusive style of the Congress’s Rahul Gandhi, who even his admirers admit has not lived up to his potential; and the steely determination of the man against all odds: AAP’s Arvind Kejiriwal.</p>
<p>PS: I am writing this from my hotel room in Lutyen’s New Delhi in the early hours the morning: the imposing Parliament building just visible from my room. Each time the elections are announced, my latent nationalism comes to the fore and I am proud, as ever, to have been born in this country. We may not have solved the country’s problems, the stark poverty outside the hotel is just one reminder of the challenges that exist, but to give a billion people a voice, a chance, to decide their future and future of the country – everything else fades into insignificance.</p>
<p>Next: The Parties and the Leaders</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The great Indian festival of democracy has just begun… General elections in the world’s largest democracy are always a reflection of the complexities of India and its stark contradictions. The 2014 parliamentary…Amitabh Mattoo, Director - Australia India Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.