tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/abdullah-abdullah-76631/articlesAbdullah Abdullah – The Conversation2020-01-20T14:36:30Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1296412020-01-20T14:36:30Z2020-01-20T14:36:30ZAfghanistan voted in September and final results are still not out – what’s happening?<p>It’s been nearly four months since Afghans went to the polls in an election fraught with security threats and overshadowed by the faltering progress of <a href="https://theconversation.com/afghanistan-failure-of-us-taliban-peace-talks-looms-over-elections-123713">US-Taliban peace talks</a>. Although the preliminary results of the election were announced in late December, the final results are yet to be confirmed. </p>
<p>The incumbent, President Ashraf Ghani, <a href="https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/afghanistans-2019-elections-27-the-preliminary-result-finally-but-no-end-to-controversy/">was declared</a> the winner of the preliminary results with 50.6% of the vote – a paper-thin majority. His main opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, chief executive in the national unity government led by Ghani since 2014, came second. </p>
<p>The introduction of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-election-technology/biometric-machines-in-afghan-vote-improve-after-last-years-glitches-idUSKBN1WD0DM">biometric</a> voting machines that used fingerprint scans and photographs in the 2019 election was expected to overcome past allegations of fraud and manipulation. But this did not stop similar allegations <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/12/world/asia/abdullah-afghanistan-election.html">emerging over the 2019 election</a>, leading to the eruption of protests and warnings of a crisis.</p>
<p>More than 16,000 complaints were filed about the conduct of the election, although 10,000 were <a href="https://tolonews.com/elections-2019/nearly-10000-election-complaints-rejected-iecc">declared invalid</a> by the Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) on January 14. Still, around <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/22/world/asia/afghanistan-election-ghani.html">300,000 votes remain contested</a> – 16.4% of the total number of votes deemed valid – including 102,000 votes that the biometric election data shows were cast outside of the allocated voting time, between 7am and 5pm on September 28.</p>
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<p>Under the current system, the winner needs 50% plus one vote to secure a majority. If a significant number of these disputed votes are invalidated – a decision that will be taken by the IECC in early February (if all goes well) – it’s possible Ghani’s vote share could dip below 50%. If that happened, there could be a run-off between Ghani and his main opponent Abdullah Abdullah, chief executive in the national unity government. </p>
<h2>Legitimacy</h2>
<p>Turnout at the election was a record low, with less than 19% of the 9.6 million registered voters going to the polls. Only 31% of those who voted were women, down from <a href="https://unama.unmissions.org/women%E2%80%99s-participation-elections-vital-afghanistan%E2%80%99s-democracy">38% in 2014</a>. The low turnout was largely attributed to widespread security threats from the Taliban and a lack of trust in the electoral process and presidential candidates. </p>
<p>The use of biometric technology in the presidential election for the first time could also have led to a lower number of valid votes – nearly one million votes were <a href="https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/afghanistans-2019-election-23-disputed-biometric-votes-endanger-election-results/">reportedly</a> invalidated due to irregularities.</p>
<p>The low turnout rate has sparked discussions <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/dismal-turnout-in-afghan-election-could-leave-government-in-even-weaker-position/2019/09/29/130b97a4-e2b9-11e9-a6e8-8759c5c7f608_story.html">on the legitimacy of the next government</a> if there is no run-off. </p>
<p>In Afghanistan, political legitimacy is not based simply around formal election results but also material resources, power and political alliances that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14678802.2016.1246142">emerge from such processes</a>. In a divided society affected by war, legitimacy can also stem from the power of elites to mobilise and their capacity for violence. </p>
<p>The legitimacy of the political system also depends on whether the losers eventually accept the election results, even if they initially challenge them to gain political advantage. The only time a losing candidate in Afghan elections accepted he hadn’t won was in 2004. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Zalmy Khalilzad, the US envoy for the Afghan peace process, is waiting to hear <a href="https://swn.af/english/Article.aspx?a=52315">whether the Taliban</a> will agree to reduce violence, deemed a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49642655">precondition</a> for the resumption of US-Taliban peace talks. </p>
<p>The Taliban continues to categorically reject the legitimacy of the Afghan government, calling it a “US-puppet regime” and labelling the <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/taliban-threatens-violent-disruption-of-afghan-presidential-election/30096318.html">election a “sham”</a>. If a peace deal is eventually reached between the US and Taliban, the next stage of peace negotiations between the different parties in Afghanistan will be even more complicated, with clashes expected on whether to maintain the current democratic, republic system or opt for an Islamic emirate. With the Taliban refusing to sit down with the Afghan government, resolving these issues looks a long way off. </p>
<p>Achieving sustainable peace in Afghanistan requires sufficient time as well as a show of genuine will from the parties involved in the armed conflict – both at the national and regional level. </p>
<h2>A potential run-off</h2>
<p>If a run-off is eventually needed, it would happen in either April or September. But it’s questionable whether holding another costly election in the country’s difficult situation is worth it. </p>
<p>Given the prolonged electoral process and its implications on people’s daily lives, many Afghans are also experiencing electoral fatigue. Ethnic bloc voting is a prevalent feature of Afghanistan presidential elections and results usually follow ethno-regional lines. With the security threat also likely to be the same as in September 2019, a run-off would be unlikely to produce a significantly different outcome. </p>
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<span class="caption">Preliminary presidential election results per province: Ashraf Ghani in green, Abdullah Abdullah in blue. The result is calculated for the whole country, rather than by province.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Independent Election Commission</span></span>
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<p>A runoff may <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/afghan-elections-bring-no-peace">revive calls</a> for the formation of an interim government, which could include the Taliban and other politicians. These calls have especially come by those political elites who feel disenfranchised from the state’s resources and privileges and see the formation of an interim government as an opportunity to renegotiate the distribution of power and resources.</p>
<h2>Ways to prevent potential conflict</h2>
<p>The logic of a run-off would be to encourage candidates to appeal to voters across ethnic groups mainly by forging multi-ethnic alliances. But evidence from the 2014 run-off – which was between Ghani and Abdullah – shows that it can easily become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14678802.2016.1248431">ethnicised</a> and spiral into a crisis. That election was resolved in a US-brokered deal that <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2015/01/forging-afghanistans-national-unity-government">created the national unity government</a>, which continues to exist amid the election result delay. But <a href="https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/miscellaneous/aan-resources/the-government%20-of-national-unity-deal-full-text/">provisions</a> in the deal for formalising the chief executive role as well as an official leader of the opposition were never realised. </p>
<p>One way forward would be to look beyond the current 50% plus one vote majority <a href="http://www.afghanembassy.com.pl/afg/images/pliki/TheConstitution.pdf">required</a> to find a political approach that could reduce the winner-takes-all nature of Afghanistan’s presidential elections. One way to do this could be to include the candidate with second most votes in the government. But instead of focusing on sharing government positions as in 2014 – a situation which led to <a href="https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/afghanistans-national-unity-government-rift-2-the-problems-that-will-not-go-away/">intra-government rivalries</a> – inclusion should be done with an eye to ensuring both representation and improving the government’s effectiveness.</p>
<p>Another way to reduce the costs of losing the election could be to make political opposition a more attractive path by better defining the opposition’s responsibilities for scrutiny and oversight of the government. The opposition should be treated as a government in waiting, and receive enough funding to fulfil its responsibilities. </p>
<p>Either of these scenarios could prevent a potential electoral conflict, ensure relative legitimacy and stability and boost the effectiveness of the government for Afghans. Then the new government with its relative legitimacy could roll up its sleeves to negotiate a political deal with the Taliban, aiming to achieve a sustainable peace. Even if the peace efforts fail, the government would still enjoy the support of elites co-opted in the state apparatus which in turn may reduce political instability.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129641/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kaweh Kerami does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Why Afghanistan is still waiting to hear who its next president will be – nearly four months after the election.Kaweh Kerami, PhD Researcher, SOAS, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1215582019-09-26T20:12:21Z2019-09-26T20:12:21ZAfghanistan’s suffering has reached unprecedented levels. Can a presidential election make things better?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293990/original/file-20190925-51414-m49nem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A supporter of Ashraf Ghani takes part in an election rally in Kabul last month.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jawad Jalali/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After months of delays and uncertainty, Afghanistan is set to hold its presidential election on Saturday. This election, the fourth since the overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2001, has critical implications for the political stability and security of the country. </p>
<p>Most importantly, it will test the resilience of the country’s fragile democratic process and shape the conditions under which the now-defunct negotiations between the United States and the Taliban can be resumed with more meaningful participation from Kabul. </p>
<p>And if the vote produces a broadly acceptable and functioning government – which is not a guarantee after the last presidential election in 2014 and parliamentary elections in 2018 – it will have profound repercussions for the Afghan people.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-end-afghanistan-war-as-longest-conflict-moves-towards-fragile-peace-116587">How to end Afghanistan war as longest conflict moves towards fragile peace</a>
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<p>Nearly two decades after the US-led coalition invaded the country and ousted the Taliban, Afghanistan is still in a downward spiral. In June, the country replaced Syria as the world’s least peaceful country in the Institute for Economics and Peace’s <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-peace-index-2019">Global Peace Index report</a>. The BBC tracked the violence in the country in August and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49662640">found that on average, 74 Afghan men, women and children died each day</a> across the country.</p>
<p>Further, the number of Afghans below the poverty line <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-economy/afghanistans-poverty-rate-rises-as-economy-suffers-idUSKBN1I818X">increased</a> from 33.5% in 2011 to nearly 55% in 2017. </p>
<p>And in another bleak assessment of where things are at the moment, Afghan respondents in a recent Gallup <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266825/inside-afghanistan-nearly-nine-afghans-suffering.aspx">survey</a> rated their lives worse than anyone else on the planet. A record-high 85% of respondents categorised their lives as “suffering”, while the number of people who said they were “thriving” was zero. </p>
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<h2>Tests of democracy in Afghanistan</h2>
<p>Despite the major challenges posed by insecurity and risks of electoral fraud, Afghanistan’s recent elections have been serious contests between the country’s various political elites. </p>
<p>Ordinary voters take extraordinary risks to participate in the polls. Thanks to a dynamic <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-12013942">media sector</a>, these contests involve spirited debates about policy-making and the visions of the candidates. This is particularly true when it comes to presidential elections, as the country’s 2004 Constitution concentrated much of the political and executive power in the office of the president.</p>
<p>There have been serious tests of Afghanistan’s nascent democracy before, however.
The 2014 election was tainted by allegations of widespread fraud, <a href="https://www.economist.com/banyan/2014/09/22/divide-and-rule">pushing the country to the brink of a civil war</a>. </p>
<p>The political crisis was averted by the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29299088">formation of the national unity government</a>, in which Ashraf Ghani became president and his main challenger in the election, Abdullah Abdullah, took the position of chief executive officer, with powers similar to a prime minister.</p>
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<span class="caption">Abdullah Abdullah is again the main challenger for President Ashraf Ghani, similar to the 2014 vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jalil Rezayee/EPA</span></span>
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<h2>Negotiations with the Taliban</h2>
<p>Since the withdrawal of most of the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2014, the Taliban has considerably expanded the areas under its influence. Nonetheless, the insurgent group has been unable to score any strategic military victories by gaining control of provincial or population centres.</p>
<p>In 2016, President Donald Trump came to the White House with the promise of ending the war in Afghanistan. However, after a meticulous assessment of the risks associated with a complete troop withdrawal, he backed away from that pledge. </p>
<p>Trump instead called the 2014 departure of most US troops a “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/timeline-military-presence-afghanistan-190908070831251.html">hasty withdrawal</a>” and declared a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-strategy-afghanistan-south-asia/">new strategy</a> that included an increase in the number of US forces in Afghanistan.</p>
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<span class="caption">Afghan President Ashraf Ghani (centre) has adopted a populist style in his re-election campaign to connect better with voters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ghulamullah Habibi/EPA</span></span>
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<p>The deployment of additional troops significantly escalated the military campaign against the Taliban but failed to decisively change the security dynamics in the country. </p>
<p>Then, in 2018, the Trump administration formally began engaging the Taliban in a series of direct negotiations in Qatar. The process was called off by Trump earlier this month when it was <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/28/khalilzad-edges-closer-to-pact-with-taliban-zalmay-khalilzad-negotiations-afghanistan-war-diplomacy-new-details-on-peace-negotiations-ashraf-ghani-elections-kabul/">reportedly at the threshold of an agreement</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-peace-agreement-in-afghanistan-wont-last-if-there-are-no-women-at-the-table-111820">A peace agreement in Afghanistan won't last if there are no women at the table</a>
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<p>Critics <a href="http://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/caution-rather-than-haste-afghanistan/">noted</a>, however, the many flaws of this approach and the haste with which the negotiations were conducted by Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special representative for Afghan reconciliation.</p>
<p>Ironically, at the insistence of the Taliban, the process excluded the government of Afghanistan, which the Taliban refuses to recognise as the legitimate authority in the country. This led to phased negotiations, whereby a deal between the US and the Taliban was expected to be followed by an intra-Afghan dialogue and eventually a ceasefire. </p>
<p>A successful presidential election that produces a broadly acceptable outcome can significantly strengthen the position of the new government in negotiating and implementing a peace process with the Taliban. This is one reason why Ghani does not want to be <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/struggle-peace-talks-taliban-181210135032300.html">sidelined</a> from the negotiations.</p>
<h2>Challenges for the upcoming vote</h2>
<p>The election involves a significant number of political players and coalitions, but is essentially a replay of the 2014 poll between Ghani and Abdullah. While none of the other 13 candidates have a realistic chance of winning, they can split the votes to prevent one of the leaders from claiming victory in the first round. A run-off was required in the last two presidential elections in 2009 and 2014.</p>
<p>Another factor is the threat of violence from the Taliban. The group has already vowed to violently disrupt the election. In recent weeks, it has claimed responsibility for deadly attacks on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-18/taliban-suicide-bomber-targets-afghanistan-election-rally/11522278">election rallies</a>, including a devastating attack on the campaign <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/29/world/asia/afghanistan-campaign-attack-amrullah-saleh.html">office of Amrullah Saleh</a>, the first vice-president on Ghani’s ticket.</p>
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<span class="caption">Supporters of incumbent President Ashraf Ghani at a rally in Jalalabad this month.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ghulamullah Habibi/EPA</span></span>
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<p>Insecurity will also likely prevent significant numbers of people from participating in the process. The number of polling stations has significantly <a href="https://www.tolonews.com/elections-2019/aan-has-concerns-about-rural-voters%E2%80%99-access-polling-centers%E2%80%8B">dropped to less than 5,000 this year compared to 7,000 in 2014</a>, highlighting the deteriorating security conditions. </p>
<p>There <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/taliban-threats-poll-closures-raise-fears-for-credibility-of-afghan-elections/2019/09/23/c819b7c8-d8b6-11e9-a1a5-162b8a9c9ca2_story.html?outputType=amp&">are also fears</a> that more polling stations will be closed on election day, both for security reasons and <a href="https://www.tolonews.com/elections-2019/critics-call-security-report-polling-stations-%E2%80%98suspicious%E2%80%99">political reasons</a> (the latter in areas that are likely to vote for opposition candidates). </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/afghanistan-election-with-kabul-in-lockdown-we-watch-and-wait-26719">Afghanistan election: with Kabul in lockdown, we watch and wait</a>
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<p>This election is unlikely to be a game changer in the face of the magnitude and complexity of the challenges facing Afghanistan and its people. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the election presents a rare opportunity for the country’s people to exercise their rights to choose who governs the country. </p>
<p>And if the supporters of the leading candidates stay committed to a transparent process, even a reasonably credible outcome can go a long way in restoring confidence in the country’s shaky institutions and strengthening the position of the government in any future peace negotiations with the Taliban.</p>
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<p><em>This article was corrected on September 27, 2019. The forthcoming election is the fourth since the Taliban was overthrown in 2001, not the third as originally stated.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121558/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>According to a recent survey, Afghans rate their lives worse than anyone else on the planet. The election is unlikely to be a game changer considering the magnitude of challenges facing the country.Safiullah Taye, Phd. Candidate and Research Assistan, Deakin UniversityNiamatullah Ibrahimi, Associate Research Fellow, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1237132019-09-25T12:03:44Z2019-09-25T12:03:44ZAfghanistan: failure of US-Taliban peace talks looms over elections<p>While Kabul was asleep early on the morning of September 8, Donald Trump abruptly <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49624132">cancelled peace negotiations</a> with the Taliban. In a statement 17 hours later, the insurgent group said that the US would “lose the most”. But for Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan president bidding for a second term in office at elections on September 28, it was a massive relief. For his sidelined administration, a peace deal with the Taliban would mean losing everything.</p>
<p>A peace agreement between the US and the Taliban, which had been “<a href="https://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/us-and-taliban-reach-agreement-principle-khalilzad">agreed in principle</a>” was due to be signed in Doha. But the US president called it off, also cancelling a planned visit by Taliban leaders to Camp David. He tweeted that no deal would be achieved unless a <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1170469621348098049?s=20">ceasefire was reached first</a>. This poured cold water over the heads of those Taliban who had already started beating the drum of victory. </p>
<p>In Afghanistan, Trump’s decision was cheered by opponents of the potential peace deal but raised concerns among many other Afghans who hoped the days of war were numbered, regardless of how imperfect the peace deal would be.</p>
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<p>What made the recent negotiations significantly different from previous peace efforts was the US government’s willingness to negotiate with an insurgent group that has claimed responsibility for the deaths of at least <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-47391821">2,300 American soldiers</a>. The Taliban’s longstanding condition for any peace talks has been to negotiate directly with the US, which played a significant role in toppling their regime in 2001.</p>
<h2>Growing suspicion</h2>
<p>After the initial rounds of the US-Taliban peace <a href="https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/afghan-taliban-representatives-us-officials-meet-uae">started in December 2018</a>, the Ghani administration began to become suspicious about its role in the negotiations. As the peace talks approached their endpoint, the administration faced mounting insecurity, realising that the US, its patron, was giving it a cold shoulder. The main reason the US sidelined the Kabul administration appeared to be the Taliban’s strong opposition to the government, which the group labels both a “puppet” and “illegitimate”.</p>
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<p>The Taliban’s rigid stance against the Afghan government added to the intricacy of the job of US peace envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad. He was left with two choices: either support the current political status quo – the National Unity Government and the upcoming presidential election – or take a risky path with the Taliban on board which could potentially lead to a new political settlement.</p>
<p>Ghani was left pushing for the presidential election, in which he believed he had an upper hand. But the US, which had brokered the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29299088">formation of the unity government</a> in the aftermath of a contested presidential run-off in 2014, clearly had a different priority: the peace process. Its reasoning is that without peace and stability, Afghanistan cannot embrace growth and economy development.</p>
<p>While the US never took a public stance against the election, it was <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/afghan-presidential-candidates-face-election-uncertainty-campaign-controversy-and-danger/30083700.html">reported</a> that Khalilzad, in private meetings with Afghan elites, had implicitly hinted that the vote could be cancelled and an interim government would be formed. At this point many Afghans started believing that the elections would not happen – including the vast majority of the presidential candidates.</p>
<p>However for Ghani’s team, given that the administration was being sidelined in the peace talks, holding election was a matter of life or death. To reconcile peace with elections on his own terms, in November 2018, Ghani <a href="https://president.gov.af/en/SP/789012781234">presented a new set</a> of peace proposals with a five-year implementation period – equal to a five-year presidential term that he hopes will be his own. The move was criticised and discredited by other presidential hopefuls. </p>
<p>But Ghani is not the sole leader of the Afghan government. Abdullah Abdullah, his main electoral opponent on September 28, is Afghanistan’s current chief executive who claims nearly 50% of the government based on the National Unity Government deal. During Khalilzad’s July trip to Kabul, Ghani was initially reluctant to sign <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-taliban-set-finalize-agreement-ahead-intra-afghan/story?id=64682102">an agreement</a> related to the US-Taliban peace deal, but then the US envoy approached Abdullah for it. All of a sudden, Ghani changed his mind. </p>
<h2>Fate of elections</h2>
<p>In August, with the US-Taliban peace talks on the verge of conclusion and elections just a month away, an average of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49726088">74 people were killed every day</a> in the country, according to the BBC. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49662640">One-fifth of these were civilians</a>, including children. </p>
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<p>One of the reasons why Trump pulled out of the agreement was a Taliban attack in Kabul on September 6 in which a US soldier and 11 others were killed. But the Taliban had <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49642655">never agreed</a> to end its violent campaign against foreign forces until a peace deal was signed. The withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan and a verifiable Taliban guarantee to fight terrorism were the main topics of the “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49642655">dead</a>” peace talks.</p>
<p>It’s still possible that the talks with the Taliban will resume, with Trump pushing for a “better” deal ahead of the US presidential election in 2020. Both <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49729612">the Taliban</a> and Pakistan have been <a href="https://www.voanews.com/usa/pakistans-pm-urges-trump-restart-peace-talks-afghan-taliban">urging the US</a> to resume the peace negotiations. </p>
<p>For his part, Abdullah has taken the US’s side by prioritising peace. He has said <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-election-abdullah/top-challenger-of-afghan-president-says-ready-to-quit-elections-for-peace-idUSKCN1VJ0UQ?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews">over and over</a> that if he wins the election and the next day, the Taliban shows genuine willingness for peace, he would step down – in stark contrast to Ghani. </p>
<p>With polling day approaching, a group of Kabul elites, including the former president Hamid Karzai, still think the presidential <a href="https://www.apnews.com/0219011cc97741a8b700faf86daebe91/gallery/f68a8fcf1c614e389566f130ccb34bd6">election threatens peace</a>. They feel disenfranchised from the state resources and privileges and see a negotiated political settlement as an opportunity to renegotiate the distribution of power and resources. </p>
<p>For its part, the Taliban labelled the upcoming elections <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-afghanistan-taliban-election/taliban-threaten-afghan-election-hail-progress-on-pact-with-u-s-idUKKCN1UW0MO">a “sham”</a>. The poll has high stakes and may be fairly destabilising, given the likelihood of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14678802.2016.1246142">threats of violence</a>, accusations of fraud and breakdown of the political order. It will be very difficult for Afghanistan to have a transparent, free and fair election – at least in the current climate. Still, without elections it’s hard to secure a sustainable peace and stability. </p>
<p>The halted peace talks and upcoming election have one critical point in common: they both operate with a “winner-takes-all” political logic. To ensure a sustainable peace and stability in Afghanistan, it is of paramount importance to design an inclusive set-up in which the distribution of power and resources align with the realities of the country’s power structures. </p>
<p>Otherwise, the costs of excluding key groups with the capacity for violence, including the Taliban, will prolong even further a war that has taken a huge death toll.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123713/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kaweh Kerami does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Afghans head to the polls on September 28, peace still remains elusive.Kaweh Kerami, PhD Researcher, SOAS, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.