tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/bushfires-1377/articlesBushfires – The Conversation2024-03-11T19:12:58Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164492024-03-11T19:12:58Z2024-03-11T19:12:58ZCan earth-covered houses protect us from bushfires? Even if they’re a solution, it’s not risk-free<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580069/original/file-20240306-29-4s79aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C235%2C2911%2C1942&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bushfire_destroys_house.jpg">Helitak430/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As extreme fire weather <a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-regimes-around-australia-shifted-abruptly-20-years-ago-and-falling-humidity-is-why-209689">becomes more common</a> across ever larger areas of Australia, we need new options for living with the risk of bushfire. Underground or earth-sheltered housing is one possibility. While still unusual, these homes are being <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-28/underground-homes-bushfires-natural-disasters-climate-change/102804984">built in bushfire-prone areas</a>. </p>
<p>But before we embrace this form of housing as a widespread solution to increasing bushfire risks, we need to consider its complexities. Things to weigh up include the challenges of designing and building these homes, their costs and occupants’ behaviour. We also have limited real-world evidence of how such homes perform in bushfires. </p>
<p>A broader question is whether we should allow more people to live in bushfire-prone areas. If we let that happen it will lead to more deaths and injuries. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-building-codes-dont-expect-houses-to-be-fire-proof-and-thats-by-design-129540">Australian building codes don't expect houses to be fire-proof – and that's by design</a>
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<h2>What does building such homes involve?</h2>
<p>Earth-sheltered houses are often built into slopes, but can be built on flat ground, either by excavating or by mounding earth over the building. In Australia, concrete is generally used for the building structure to provide enough strength to allow soil to cover the roof and walls. The earth-covered areas can be vegetated. </p>
<p>Because of the amount of earth in contact with the exterior, care is needed to ensure the building is watertight and structurally sound. </p>
<p>The house usually has one main wall of windows facing away from the earth-covered side to provide natural light. To meet building regulations for ventilation, these buildings include rear windows in light wells or vents.</p>
<p>One advantage of earth-sheltered buildings is that their internal temperature remains quite stable. They <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032120304020">use much less energy</a> – up to <a href="https://www.envirovaluation.org/2020/10/green-roof-and-green-wall-benefits-and.html">84% less for cooling</a> and up to 48% less for heating – to maintain <a href="https://doi.org/10.3992/1943-4618.15.1.87">comfortable temperatures</a>. (These figures are for all climates, compared to buildings with black roofs.) </p>
<p>These buildings can also offer greater opportunities for improved <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032120304020">aesthetics (as the home blends into the landscape), landscaping, productive gardens and recreation</a>. These benefits can offset having limited windows and constraints on building layouts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-earthships-could-make-rebuilding-safer-in-bushfire-zones-131291">How 'Earthships' could make rebuilding safer in bushfire zones</a>
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<h2>What about bushfire resistance?</h2>
<p>Bushfires present complex risks. Earth-sheltered buildings are likely to be a useful but somewhat expensive and limited niche solution on challenging legacy sites where housing already exists.</p>
<p>Few such buildings have been subjected to fires so we have limited evidence of their efficacy. However, it is clear they can be engineered to resist the main ways bushfires attack buildings: <a href="https://research.csiro.au/bushfire/bushfire-basics/how-do-buildings-ignite/">heat, flames and embers</a>. </p>
<p>Since earth largely covers the building, the most vulnerable parts are windows and other openings. These can be designed to resist heat and flame, depending on the modelled levels.</p>
<p>Bushfire-resistant measures are estimated to add costs of <a href="https://www.yarraranges.vic.gov.au/Development/Planning/Rebuilding-after-an-emergency/Your-building-journey/Cost-of-building-in-a-bushfire-prone-area">between $53,000 and $273,000</a> (2020 values) compared to a typical home construction, depending on the site. Glass is often a key component. Because they are highly susceptible to heat, the cost of windows that can withstand a worst-case fire is often prohibitive. </p>
<p>An earth-shelter build usually costs much more than standard once one adds up the engineering, excavation, concrete and construction costs.</p>
<p>Most earth-sheltered structures rely on one side of the building having large windows to admit enough natural light inside. This window side is typically oriented downhill towards views, with the rear built into the slope. Bushfires increase speed and intensity when moving uphill, so the window side usually receives the most intense bushfire attack. </p>
<p>On sites with limited space, this challenge is often difficult to resolve. Sometimes the only solution is to remove large amounts of natural vegetation. This is done at the expense of ecological goals. The loss of plants whose roots bind the soil could also increase landslip risks. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-our-bushfire-proof-house-design-could-help-people-flee-rather-than-risk-fighting-the-flames-182046">How our bushfire-proof house design could help people flee rather than risk fighting the flames</a>
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<h2>Should people even be in high-risk places?</h2>
<p>While it is possible to engineer a bushfire-resistant structure with a low risk of destruction, that doesn’t eliminate the risks created by people themselves.</p>
<p>Human factors greatly increase risks, even in well-designed bushfire-resistant structures. Poor maintenance or later modification can put a property at risk. Examples include unsafe storage of gas bottles and fuel, woodpiles, and modification of or failure to secure doors, windows or shutters. </p>
<p>Residents may also modify vegetation around an earth-covered home in ways that increase risks. They might, for example, plant highly flammable species, or allow fuel loads to build up, including mulch they might have laid down.</p>
<p>Despite education campaigns, warnings and alerts, people continue to <a href="https://researchnow-admin.flinders.edu.au/ws/files/47382312/Trigg_Moveable_P2017.pdf">put themselves in many risky situations</a> before and during bushfires. Reasons include alert fatigue, expenses of evacuation, dangers while driving, being in unfamiliar locations such as holiday houses, retrieving children, protecting livestock and pets, or protecting underinsured or uninsured property. If more people live in bushfire-prone areas, there will be more bushfire-related deaths and injuries among both residents and bushfire responders. </p>
<p>The psychological impacts on people affected by extreme fires are significant. <a href="https://psychology.anu.edu.au/files/ANU%20Bushfire%202021%20Survey%20Summary.pdf">Nearly three-quarters suffered anxiety</a> for two years after Australia’s 2019-20 <a href="https://theconversation.com/200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed-198989">Black Summer bushfires</a>. Even if a structure survives, the emotional burdens of isolation while under duress, loss of communications and the heat, smoke, darkness and noise of extreme fires are powerful and underestimated.</p>
<p>Yet people’s differing levels of awareness and ability are often ignored as a factor in bushfire risk.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/before-we-rush-to-rebuild-after-fires-we-need-to-think-about-where-and-how-130049">Before we rush to rebuild after fires, we need to think about where and how</a>
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<h2>There’s a wider context to consider</h2>
<p>It makes little sense to put more people in bushfire-prone locations that will likely <a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-regimes-around-australia-shifted-abruptly-20-years-ago-and-falling-humidity-is-why-209689">become riskier over time</a>. Solutions such as earth-sheltered buildings may be part of a suite of ways to reduce risks in existing bushfire-prone residential areas. </p>
<p>However, at a wider scale, building low-density housing in bushfire-prone areas is unnecessarily risky. It also conflicts with the compelling need to build at much higher densities in existing areas to house Australia’s growing population. Higher-density housing will allow better and more affordable access (because of economies of scale) to services, infrastructure, jobs and public transport.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216449/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan March receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Buildings can be engineered to resist bushfires, but we can’t engineer the many aspects of human behaviour and decision-making that will still put lives at risk.Alan March, Professor of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247452024-03-04T19:22:07Z2024-03-04T19:22:07ZIn a dangerously warming world, we must confront the grim reality of Australia’s bushfire emissions<p>In the four years since the Black Summer bushfires, Australia has become more focused on how best to prepare for, fight and recover from these traumatic events. But one issue has largely flown under the radar: how the emissions produced by bushfires are measured and reported. </p>
<p>Fires comprised 4.8% of <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2">total global emissions in 2021</a>, producing about <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/12/siberia-america-wildfires-emissions-records-2021/">1.76 billion tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide (CO₂). This <a href="https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2023?vis=co2tot#emissions_table">exceeds the emissions</a> of almost all individual countries except the biggest emitters of China, the United States, India and Russia.</p>
<p>It’s crucial to accurately track the greenhouse gas emissions bushfires produce. However, the modelling and reporting of bushfire emissions is a complex, poorly understood area of climate science and policy. </p>
<p>The University of Tasmania recently brought together leading scientists and policymakers to discuss Australia’s measuring and reporting of bushfire emissions. The resulting <a href="https://www.utas.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/1697841/Measuring-and-reporting-bushfire-emissions.pdf">report</a>, just released, shows where Australia must improve as we face a fiery future.</p>
<h2>Getting a read on bushfire emissions</h2>
<p>By the end of this century, the number of extreme fire events around the world is expected to increase by <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/number-wildfires-rise-50-2100-and-governments-are-not-prepared">up to 50% a year</a> as a direct result of human-caused climate change.</p>
<p>Emissions from bushfires fuels global warming – which in turn makes bushfires even more destructive. Estimating these emissions is a complicated and technical task, but it is vital to understanding Australia’s carbon footprint.</p>
<p>Australia reports on emissions from bushfires according to rules defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as part of our responsibilities under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>Countries estimate bushfire emissions in different ways. Some rely on default data provided by the UNFCCC. In contrast, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2021-volume-1.pdf">Australia’s modelling</a> combines the area of burned land with highly specific local data on the types of fuel burned (such as leaves, bark and dead wood) and the amount of <a href="https://research.csiro.au/pyropage/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2017/04/CSIRO-PyroPage-Issue-10-GHG-Emissions.pdf">different types of gas</a> these fuels emit. This makes it among the most sophisticated approaches in the world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-fire-alert-has-knocked-australians-out-of-complacency-under-climate-change-catastrophic-bushfires-can-strike-any-time-224636">Victoria's fire alert has knocked Australians out of complacency. Under climate change, catastrophic bushfires can strike any time</a>
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<h2>More transparency is needed</h2>
<p>Australia’s modelling may be sophisticated but it can also be confusing – even for those who follow climate policy closely. One reason is the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2021-volume-1.pdf">complex way</a> we differentiate between “natural” fires (those beyond human control) and “anthropogenic” or human-caused fires such as controlled fuel-reduction burns. </p>
<p>Emissions from natural fires are reported to the UNFCCC, but do not initially count towards Australia’s net emissions calculations. This is consistent with <a href="https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/4_Volume4/V4_01_Ch1_Introduction.pdf">guidance</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</p>
<p>However, we believe that to improve transparency and accountability, the federal government should work with the states and territories to provide a separate breakdown of natural and human-caused fire emissions. This data should be made publicly available to provide a clearer picture of bushfire emissions and the impact of climate change on large fires.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-is-a-chemical-reaction-heres-why-australia-is-supremely-suited-to-it-217275">Fire is a chemical reaction. Here's why Australia is supremely suited to it</a>
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<h2>Where we must improve</h2>
<p>As mentioned above, emissions from natural fires do not initially count towards Australia’s net calculations. Consistent with other countries, our modelling assumes that emissions will be offset after the fires because forest regrowth captures carbon from the atmosphere. </p>
<p>This approach is based on current scientific evidence. For example, within two years of the Black Summer fires, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-22/are-megafires-contributing-to-climate-change/103219876">80% of the burned area</a> was almost fully recovered. </p>
<p>If monitoring of a fire site shows regrowth has not fully offset emissions after 15 years, the difference is retrospectively added to Australia’s net emissions for the year of the original fire.</p>
<p>But this approach may soon need to change. That’s because research <a href="https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13021-023-00231-3">sugests</a> we cannot assume forests will recover quickly after bushfires. As bushfires become more frequent and intense, they are more likely to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12433">irrevocably change</a> landscapes. Bushfires are also more likely to occur in areas that are not adapted to fire and recover poorly – such as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2016.19308">Tasmania’s World Heritage-listed northwest</a>. </p>
<p>This has major implications for Australia’s emissions accounting.</p>
<p>Another significant gap in our modelling is the contribution of soil carbon to bushfire emissions. Large amounts of carbon are present in organic material in soil.</p>
<p>Currently, international rules do not require soil carbon emissions from fire to be estimated. This is despite emerging research showing the release of <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/pdf/WF22204">soil carbon</a> during bushfires in some landscapes, such as peatlands, is likely to create substantial emissions. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24668">Other research</a> suggests that depleted soil carbon can slow the recovery of forests after fire.</p>
<p>There is currently insufficient evidence to include soil carbon emissions from bushfires in Australia’s estimates, or to model the effects of soil carbon changes on forest regrowth and carbon capture. More research is urgently needed.</p>
<h2>Where to now?</h2>
<p>Australia’s approach to estimating bushfire emissions is credible and sophisticated. However, our modelling and reporting must be refined as technology improves and the climate changes. </p>
<p>Australia is a fire-prone continent. Our bushfire emissions will increase unless we significantly improve our fire preparedness and management. We must also rapidly reduce emissions from other sectors, to ensure our country is playing its part in the struggle to avoid catastrophic global warming.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224745/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s approach to estimating bushfire emissions is credible and sophisticated. But it must be refined as technology improves and the climate changes.Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLachlan Johnson, Research fellow, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246142024-02-28T19:15:46Z2024-02-28T19:15:46ZWhat we know about last year’s top 10 wild Australian climatic events – from fire and flood combos to cyclone-driven extreme rain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578474/original/file-20240228-28-s80sff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C0%2C3085%2C2120&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Japan Meteorological Agency, Himawari-8</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fire. Flood. Fire and flood together. Double-whammy storms. Unprecedented rainfall. Heatwaves. Climate change is making some of Australia’s weather more extreme. In 2023, the country was hit by a broad range of particularly intense events, with economy-wide impacts. Winter was the warmest in a record going back to 1910, while we had the driest September since at least 1900.</p>
<p>We often see extreme weather as distinct events in the news. But it can be useful to look at what’s happening over the year. </p>
<p>Today, more than 30 of Australia’s leading climate scientists <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/the-state-of-weather-and-climate-extremes-2023/">released a report</a> analysing ten major weather events in 2023, from early fires to low snowpack to compound events. </p>
<p>Can we say how much climate change contributed to these events? Not yet. It normally takes several years of research before we can clearly say what role climate change played. But the longer term trends are well established – more frequent, more intense heatwaves over most of Australia, marine heatwave days more than doubling over the last century, and short, intense rainfall events intensifying in some areas. </p>
<h2>What happened in 2023?</h2>
<p><strong>January. Event #1: Record-breaking rain in the north (NT, WA, QLD)</strong></p>
<p>The year began with above-average rainfall in northern Australia influenced by the “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64950045">triple-dip</a>” La Niña phase. </p>
<p>Some parts of the country were already experiencing heavy rainfall even before Cyclone Ellie arrived. From late December 2022 to early January 2023, Ellie brought heavy rainfall to Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland, resulting in a one-in-100-year flooding of the Fitzroy River. Interestingly, Cyclone Ellie was only a “weak” Category 1 tropical cyclone. So why did it cause so much damage? In their analysis, climate scientists suggest it was actually low wind speeds in the mid-troposphere which allowed the system to stall and keep raining.</p>
<p><strong>February–March. Event 2: Extreme rain and food shortages (NT, QLD)</strong></p>
<p>Climate scientists observed the same behaviour from late February to early March 2023, when a persistent slow-moving low-pressure system known as a monsoonal low dumped heavy, widespread rain over the Northern Territory and north-west Queensland. The resulting floods cut transport routes in the NT, and led to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/flooding-logistics-freight-issues-nt-wa-food-supplies-rail-road/102057556">food shortages</a>.</p>
<p><strong>June–August. Event 3 and 4: Warmest winter, little snow (NSW)</strong></p>
<p>After a wet start to the year, conditions became drier and warmer in southern and eastern Australia. New South Wales experienced its warmest winter on record, with daily maximums more than 2°C above the long-term average. </p>
<p>The unusual heat and lack of precipitation translated into the <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/snow-season-hanging-in-there-by-a-thread/1466746">second-worst</a> snow season on record (the worst was 2006). </p>
<p><strong>September. Event 5: Record heatwave (SA)</strong></p>
<p>In September, South Australia faced a record-breaking heatwave. Temperatures reached as high as 38°C in Ceduna. As warming continues, scientists suggest unusual heat and heatwaves during the cool season will become more frequent and intense. </p>
<p>September also saw <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20230919.archive.shtml">El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole</a> declared by the Bureau of Meteorology. When these two climate drivers combine, we have a higher chance of a warm and dry Australia, particularly during late winter and spring. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">2023's extreme storms, heat and wildfires broke records – a scientist explains how global warming fuels climate disasters</a>
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<p><strong>October. Event 6, 7 and 8: Fire-and-flood compound event (VIC), compound wind and rain storms (TAS), unusually early fires (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>Dry conditions gave rise to an unseasonably early fire season in Victoria and Queensland. In October, Queensland’s Western Downs region was hit hard. Dozens of houses and two lives <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-04/community-cost-of-devastating-tara-qld-bushfire/103055968">were lost</a> in the town of Tara. </p>
<p>The same month, Victoria’s Gippsland region was hit by back-to-back fires and floods, a phenomenon known as a <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/what-is-a-compound-event-in-weather-and-climate/">compound event</a>. </p>
<p>While it’s difficult to attribute these events to climate change, scientists say hot and dry winters make Australia more prone to early season fires. </p>
<p>Also in October, a different compound event struck Tasmania in the form of successive low-pressure systems. The first dumped a month’s worth of rain in a few days over much of the state, while the second brought strong winds. The rain from the first storm loosened the soil, making it easier for trees to be blown down. </p>
<p>Scientists say the combined effects were more severe than if just one of these events occurred without the other. Such extreme wind-and-rain compound events are expected to occur more frequently in regions such as the tropics as the climate continues to change.</p>
<p><strong>November. Event 9: Supercell thunderstorm trashed crops (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>In November, a supercell thunderstorm hit Queensland’s south-east, destroying A$50 million worth of crops and farming equipment. Initial research suggests extreme winds and thunderstorms <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-say-yet-if-grid-breaking-thunderstorms-are-getting-worse-but-we-shouldnt-wait-to-find-out-224148">may become</a> more likely under climate change, but more work is needed.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="crops hailstorm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The hailstorm ripped through crops in Queensland’s Lockyer Valley, a big agricultural area.</span>
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<p><strong>December. Event 10: Unprecedented flooding from Cyclone Jasper (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>In mid-December, Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall as a Category 2 tropical cyclone in north Queensland. The system weakened into a tropical low and then stalled over Cape York. The weather system’s northerly winds drew in moist air from the Coral Sea, which collided with drier winds from the south-east. This caused persistent heavy rainfall over the region – up to 2 metres in places. Catchments flooded across the region, causing widespread damage to roads, buildings and crops. Similar to ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie, most damage occurred after landfall as the system stalled and dumped rain. </p>
<h2>Climate change can make extreme weather even more extreme</h2>
<p>It’s generally easier to identify and understand the role of human-caused climate change in large-scale extreme events, particularly temperature extremes. So we can say 2023’s exceptional winter heat was probably intensified by what we have done to the climate system. </p>
<p>For smaller-scale extremes, it is often harder to determine the role of climate change, but there’s some evidence short, intense rainfall events are getting even more intense as the world warms. Early-season bushfires and low snow cover are consistent with what we expect under global warming.</p>
<p>There’s also an increasing threat from the risk of compound events where concurrent or consecutive extreme events can amplify damage. </p>
<p>Australia’s intense weather events during 2023 are broadly what we can expect to see as the world keeps getting hotter and hotter due to the heat-trapping greenhouse gases humanity continues to emit. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-heating-may-breach-1-5-c-in-2024-heres-what-that-could-look-like-220877">Global heating may breach 1.5°C in 2024 – here's what that could look like</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laure Poncet receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p>Last year was the hottest in recorded history. That heat led to a range of unusually intense weather events across Australia.Laure Poncet, Research officer, UNSW SydneyAndrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246362024-02-28T06:08:02Z2024-02-28T06:08:02ZVictoria’s fire alert has knocked Australians out of complacency. Under climate change, catastrophic bushfires can strike any time<p>Victorians were braced for the worst on Wednesday amid soaring temperatures and gusty winds, creating the state’s worst fire conditions in years. Authorities have declared a “<a href="https://news.cfa.vic.gov.au/news/catastrophic-fire-danger-for-wimmera">catastrophic</a>” fire risk in some parts of the state.</p>
<p>At the time of writing, the Bayindeen bushfire near Ballarat was still burning out of control, almost <a href="https://www.aol.com/news/thousands-told-flee-homes-australia-230102847.html">a week</a> after it began. It had razed 21,300 hectares, destroyed six homes and killed livestock. And more than 30,000 people in high-risk areas between Ballarat and Ararat had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/27/victoria-fires-bushfires-evacuations-warnings-extreme-danger-ballarat-ararat">reportedly been told</a> to leave their homes.</p>
<p>This statewide emergency is noteworthy for several reasons. First, it represent a big test of Australia’s updated fire danger rating system. The new version adopted in 2022 dictates that if a fire takes hold under catastrophic conditions, people should leave an area rather than shelter in place or stay defend their homes.</p>
<p>The second point to note is the timing: late February, when many Australians probably thought the worst of the bushfire season was over. Climate change is bringing not just more frequent and severe fires, but <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2315/study-fire-seasons-getting-longer-more-frequent/">longer fire seasons</a>. That means we must stay on heightened alert for much longer than in the past.</p>
<h2>Under catastrophic conditions, leave</h2>
<p>The current <a href="https://afdrs.com.au">Australian Fire Danger Rating System</a> was implemented in September 2022. It’s a nationally consistent system based on the latest scientific research.</p>
<p>Authorities hope the system will more accurately predict fire danger. It was also designed to more clearly communicate the danger rating to the public. For example, it involves just four danger ratings, compared to the previous six under the old Victorian regime.</p>
<p>“Catastrophic” fire danger – previously “code red” in Victoria – represents the worst conditions. The main message for the public under these conditions is:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If a fire starts and takes hold, lives are likely to be lost. For your survival leave bushfire risk areas.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Under catastrophic conditions, people are advised to move to a safer location early in the morning or even the day before. Authorities warn “homes cannot withstand fires in these conditions. You may not be able to leave, and help may not be available”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two fire danger rating systems" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578506/original/file-20240228-22-856fa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=209&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The old fire rating system in Victoria, versus the new national system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFDRS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons from Black Saturday</h2>
<p>Australia’s previous fire danger rating system was developed in the 1960s and was formally known as the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/disasters/bushfires/mk5-forest-fire-danger-meter">McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index</a>. It initially comprised five risk levels ranging from low-moderate to extreme. However, states were free to adapt the system to their needs, including adding extra categories.</p>
<p>The devastating 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2025/remembering-black-saturday-the-extraordinary-weather-behind-victorias-2009-bushfires/">killed 173 people</a>. Many people died after staying to defend their properties. </p>
<p>The tragedy prompted scrutiny of the fire danger ratings system in Victoria, and the “code red” category was added. The <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-apr-2011-preparing-for-a-code-red-day/">message</a> under those conditions was that those living in a bushfire-prone area should leave. The first code red was declared in 2010, then another <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-21/emergency-officials-declare-code-red-day-for-victoria/11722420">in 2019</a>.</p>
<p>That system was replaced by the national system in 2022.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-planet-is-burning-in-unexpected-ways-heres-how-we-can-protect-people-and-nature-213215">Our planet is burning in unexpected ways - here’s how we can protect people and nature</a>
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</p>
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<h2>Don’t stay and defend</h2>
<p>Under the current fire danger rating system, catastrophic conditions mean everyone should leave an area. The leave orders currently issued in Victoria cover many thousands of people, and represent a big test of this advice. </p>
<p>We don’t yet know how many people will heed the advice of authorities. However, at least some people have reportedly decided to <a href="https://9now.nine.com.au/today/victoria-fires-update-beaufort-wedding-venue-owner-staying-behind-to-protect-home-and-business/2ae18f36-0025-461b-a45b-2171893c9a67">stay and defend their properties</a>.</p>
<p>If thousands of others do flee, what will result? Will rural roads be blocked? Do we have the infrastructure to temporarily house all those evacuees? Whether or not the fire situation escalates on Wednesday, there will be much to learn about how we deal with such threats.</p>
<p>Certainly, it’s prudent for people in high-risk areas to leave. In hot, windy conditions, a fire could erupt and take hold in minutes. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">collapse</a> of electricity transmission towers in Victoria last week showed the vulnerability of such infrastructure in high winds. It doesn’t take long for downed power lines to ignite the surrounding bush.</p>
<p>Is there a potential alternative to the mass relocation of people in response to a major fire risk? Yes: building communities that are sufficiently fire-proofed to withstand catastrophic fire weather.</p>
<p>This could be achieved through adaptation measures such as building <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/8/298">fire bunkers</a> and specially-designed houses. It would also involve carefully managed bushland and creating fire breaks by planting non-flammable plants. It may also include <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.adi8066">targeted cultural burning</a> by Traditional Owners. These options require further discussion and research.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">'Australia is sleepwalking': a bushfire scientist explains what the Hawaii tragedy means for our flammable continent</a>
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<h2>Our fire seasons are getting longer</h2>
<p>The current emergency in Victoria shows how Australia’s fire seasons are changing.</p>
<p>It’s late February and summer is almost over. The kids are back at school and the adults are back at work. It seemed southeast Australia had escaped the bad fire summer that many had feared. Few people expected this late-season emergency.</p>
<p>But as climate change escalates, we must expect the unexpected. In a fire-prone continent such as Australia, we can never relax in a warming world. We must be in a constant, heightened state of preparedness.</p>
<p>That means know your risk and prepare your home. Draw up a bushfire survival plan – think about details such as what to do with pets and who will check on vulnerable neighbours. And please, heed the advice of authorities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding from the Australian Research Council, New South Wales Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre and Natural Hazards Research Australia.</span></em></p>Many Australians probably thought the worst of the bushfire season was over. But climate change is bringing not just more frequent and severe fires, but longer fire seasons.David Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233572024-02-26T03:17:26Z2024-02-26T03:17:26ZOur native animals are easy prey after a fire. Could artificial refuges save them?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577816/original/file-20240226-24-d5noma.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=80%2C187%2C1816%2C1348&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A tawny-crowned honeyeater in an artificial refuge</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia is home to some of the most spectacular and enigmatic wildlife on Earth. Much of it, however, is being eaten by two incredibly damaging invasive predators: the feral cat and the red fox. </p>
<p>Each year in Australia, cats and foxes kill an estimated 697 million reptiles, 510 million birds, and 1.4 billion mammals, totalling a staggering <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13497">2.6 billion</a> animals. Since the predators were introduced more than 150 years ago, they have contributed to the extinction of more than 25 species – and are pushing <a href="https://researchers.cdu.edu.au/en/publications/degrees-of-population-level-susceptibility-of-australian-terrestr">many more to the brink</a>.</p>
<p>Research suggests cats and foxes can be <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s42408-023-00183-6">more active in areas</a> recently burnt by fire. This is a real concern, especially as climate change increases the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00065-8">frequency and severity of fire</a> in south-eastern Australia.</p>
<p>We urgently need new ways to protect wildlife after fires. Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110501">study</a> trialled one such tool: building artificial refuges across burnt landscapes. The results are promising, but researchers need to find out more.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Video showing a buttonquail using an artificial refuge built by the researchers.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Triple threat: cats, foxes and fire</h2>
<p>Many native animals are <a href="https://theconversation.com/surprisingly-few-animals-die-in-wildfires-and-that-means-we-can-help-more-in-the-aftermath-174392">well-adapted to fire</a>. But the changing frequency and intensity of fire is posing a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12905">considerable threat</a> to much of Australia’s wildlife.</p>
<p>Fire removes vegetation such as grass, leaf litter and shrubs. This leaves fewer places for native animals to shelter and hide, making it <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/srep22559">easier</a> for cats and foxes to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12853">catch them</a>. </p>
<p>We conducted <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110501">our experiment</a> in three Australian ecosystems: the forests of the Otway Ranges (Victoria), the sand dunes of the Simpson Desert (Queensland) and the woodlands of Kangaroo Island (South Australia). Each had recently been burnt by fire. </p>
<p>We built 76 refuges across these study areas. They were 90cm wide and up to 50m long – and backbreaking to install! They were made from wire mesh, mostly covered by shade cloth. Spacing in the mesh of 50mm allowed small animals to enter and exit from any point, while completely excluding cats, foxes and other larger animals. The shade cloth obstructed the vision of predators.</p>
<p>We then placed <a href="https://nesplandscapes.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/5.2.4_a_guide_to_use_of_remote_cameras_for_wildlife_surveys_final_web.pdf">remote-sensing camera traps</a> both inside and away from each refuge, and monitored them for periods ranging from four months to four years.</p>
<p>The placement of the cameras meant we could compare the effect of the refuges with what occurred outside them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-season-in-hell-bushfires-push-at-least-20-threatened-species-closer-to-extinction-129533">A season in hell: bushfires push at least 20 threatened species closer to extinction</a>
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<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>Across the three study areas, the artificial refuges were used by 56 species or species groups. This included the critically endangered Kangaroo Island dunnart, the threatened white-footed dunnart and the threatened southern emu-wren. </p>
<p>For around half the species, we detected more individuals inside the refuges than outside. As we predicted, the activity of small birds and reptiles, in particular, was much higher inside the refuges. </p>
<p>But surprisingly, reptile activity was also generally higher inside the refuges, particularly among skinks. We had not predicted that, because the shade cloth likely made conditions inside the refuges cooler than outside, and reptiles require warmth to regulate their body temperature.</p>
<p>Over time, the number of animals detected inside the refuges generally increased. This was also a surprise. We expected detections inside the refuges to decline through time as the vegetation recovered and the risk of being seen by predators fell.</p>
<p>But there were also a few complicating factors. For example, in the Otway Ranges and Simpson Desert, similar numbers of the mammals were detected inside and away from the refuges. This suggests the species didn’t consider the refuges as particularly safe places, which means the structures may not reduce the risk of these animals becoming prey.</p>
<p>So what’s the upshot of all this? Our findings suggest that establishing artificial refuges after fire may help some small vertebrates, especially small birds and skinks, avoid predators across a range of ecosystems. However, more research is required before this strategy is adopted as a widespread management tool.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-critically-endangered-marsupial-survived-a-bushfire-then-along-came-the-feral-cats-185133">This critically endangered marsupial survived a bushfire – then along came the feral cats</a>
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<h2>Important next steps</h2>
<p>Almost all evidence for an increase in cat and fox activity after fire comes from <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s42408-023-00183-6">Australia</a>, particularly the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/srep22559">tropical north</a>. But cats are an invasive species in more than <a href="https://www.gbif.org/species/2435035">120 countries and islands</a>.</p>
<p>That means there’s real potential for post-fire damage to wildlife to worsen globally, especially as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-0085-3">fire risk increases</a> with climate change. </p>
<p>Our results suggest artificial refuges may be a way to help animals survive after fire. But there are still important questions to answer, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>can artificial refuges improve the overall abundance and survival of individuals and species?</li>
<li>if so, how many refuges would be required to achieve this?</li>
<li>in the presence of natural refuges – such as rocks, logs, burrows, and unburnt patches – are artificial refuges needed?</li>
<li>does their effectiveness vary between low-severity planned burns and high-severity bushfires?</li>
</ul>
<p>These questions must be answered. Conservation budgets are tight. After fires, funds must be directed towards actions that we know will work. That evidence is not yet there for artificial refuges.</p>
<p>Our team is busy trying to find out more. We urge other ecologists and conservationists to do so as well. We also encourage collaboration with designers and technologists to improve on our refuge design. For example, can such large refuges be made <a href="https://www.australianwildlife.org/biodegradable-flat-pack-homes-to-help-wildlife-survive-after-bushfires/">biodegradable and easier to deploy</a>?</p>
<p>Solving these problems is important. It’s almost impossible to rid the entire Australian continent of cats and foxes. So land managers need all the help they can get to stop these predators from decimating Australia’s incredible wildlife. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The impact of roaming pet cats on Australian wildlife.</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darcy Watchorn receives funding from the Hermon Slade Foundation, Parks Victoria, the Conservation and Wildlife Research Trust, the Ecological Society of Australia, the Victorian Environmental Assessment Council, and the Geelong Naturalists Field Club. He is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Dickman receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Driscoll receives funding from the ARC, Melbourne Water and Parks Victoria. He is affiliated with the Ecological Society of Australia and the Society for Conservation Biology.</span></em></p>We need every tool at our disposal to stop feral cats and foxes from decimating Australia’s incredible wildlife after fires. Artificial refuges show promise.Darcy Watchorn, PhD Candidate, Deakin UniversityChris Dickman, Professor Emeritus in Terrestrial Ecology, University of SydneyDon Driscoll, Professor in Terrestrial Ecology, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155352024-02-23T03:15:52Z2024-02-23T03:15:52ZBushfire smoke affects children differently. Here’s how to protect them<p>Bushfires are currently burning in Australian states including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/23/victoria-bushfires-homes-and-sheds-lost-as-blaze-heads-towards-elmhurst-in-states-west">Victoria</a>, <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/tasmania-on-high-bushfire-alert-with-extreme-weather-conditions-predicted/news-story/bc2eca6d30fc09e34b2eb683e589a002">Tasmania</a>, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-22/wa-balladonia-bushfire-closed-eyre-highway-sa/103498586">Western Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/cfs-issues-bushfire-alert-for-upper-hermitage-in-mount-lofty-ranges/news-story/15cddf960445c635194d9bc780b96787">South Australia</a>. In some areas, fire authorities have warned residents about the presence of smoke.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1760614569129689177"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.5694/mja2.50545">Bushfire smoke</a> is harmful to our health. Tiny particles of ash can lodge deep in the lungs. </p>
<p>Exposure to this type of smoke may worsen existing conditions such as asthma, and induce a range of health effects from <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.682402">irritation</a> of the eyes, nose and throat to changes in the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12989-020-00394-8">cardiovascular system</a>.</p>
<p>Public health recommendations during smoke events tend to provide general advice, and don’t often include advice specifically geared at children. But children are not just little adults. They are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pcl.2020.09.018">uniquely vulnerable</a> to environmental hazards such as bushfire smoke for a number of reasons.</p>
<h2>Different physiology, different behaviour</h2>
<p>Children’s lungs are <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.00108s3483">still developing</a> and maturing. </p>
<p>Airways are smaller in children, especially young children, which is associated with greater rates of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969717322301">particle deposition</a> – when particles settle on the surfaces of the airways.</p>
<p>Children also <a href="https://www.childrens.health.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0031/179725/how-children-are-different-anatomical-and-physiological-differences.pdf">breathe more air</a> per kilogram of body weight compared with adults, and therefore inhale more polluted air relative to their size. </p>
<p>Further, children’s detoxification systems are still developing, so environmental toxins <a href="https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1196/annals.1454.017">take longer</a> to effectively clear from their bodies.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-black-summer-bushfires-put-an-enormous-strain-on-families-with-young-children-we-cant-make-the-same-mistakes-again-205026">The Black Summer bushfires put an enormous strain on families with young children. We can't make the same mistakes again</a>
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<p>Meanwhile, children’s behaviour and habits may expose them to more environmental toxins than adults. For example, they tend to do more physical activity and spend more time outdoors. Higher levels of physical activity lead to more air inhaled per kilogram of body weight.</p>
<p>Also, a normal and important part of children’s early play is exploring their environment, including by putting things in their mouth. This can result in kids ingesting soil, dust and dirt, which often contain <a href="https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1196/annals.1454.017">environmental contaminants</a>.</p>
<p>For these reasons, it’s important to consider the specific needs of children when providing advice on what to do when there’s smoke in the air.</p>
<h2>Keeping our environments healthy</h2>
<p>The Australian government <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/bushfire-smoke-general-information-fact-sheet">offers recommendations</a> for minimising the health risks from exposure to bushfire smoke. The main advice includes staying indoors and keeping doors and windows closed. </p>
<p>This is great advice when the smoke is thick outside, but air pollutants may still accumulate inside the home. So it’s important to air your home once the smoke outside starts to clear. Take advantage of wind changes to open up and get air moving out of the house with a cross breeze. </p>
<p>Kids are natural scientists, so get them involved. For example, you and your child can “rate” the air each hour by looking at a landmark outside your home and rating how clearly you can see it. When you notice the haze is reducing, open up the house and clear the air. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-in-victoria-how-to-protect-yourself-if-the-air-is-smoky-where-you-live-215789">Bushfires in Victoria: how to protect yourself if the air is smoky where you live</a>
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<p>Because air pollutants settle onto surfaces in our home and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.10.22.23297366">into household dust</a>, an easy way to protect kids during smoky periods is to do a daily dust with a wet cloth and vacuum regularly. This will remove pollutants and reduce ingestion by children as they play. Frequent hand washing helps too.</p>
<h2>Healthy bodies and minds</h2>
<p>Research exploring the effects of bushfire smoke exposure on children’s health is sparse. However, during smoke events, we do see an increase <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41370-020-00267-4">in hospital visits</a> for asthma, as well as children reporting irritation to their eyes, nose and throat. </p>
<p>If your child <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/resp.14593">has asthma</a> or another medical condition, ensure they take any prescribed medications on a regular schedule to keep their condition well controlled. This will minimise the risk of a sudden worsening of their symptoms with bushfire smoke exposure.</p>
<p>Make sure any action plans for symptom flare-ups are up to date, and ensure you have an adequate supply of in-date medication somewhere easy to locate and access.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A mother talks to her child who is sitting on a bed." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562617/original/file-20231130-19-e868av.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562617/original/file-20231130-19-e868av.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562617/original/file-20231130-19-e868av.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562617/original/file-20231130-19-e868av.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562617/original/file-20231130-19-e868av.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562617/original/file-20231130-19-e868av.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562617/original/file-20231130-19-e868av.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children may be anxious during a bushfire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-mother-having-conversation-her-child-2228408203">Media_Photos/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Kids can get worried during bushfires, and fire emergencies have been linked with a reduction in children’s <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41370-020-00267-4">mental health</a>. Stories such as the <a href="https://www.childrens.health.qld.gov.au/our-work/birdies-tree-natural-disaster-recovery/birdies-tree-storybooks/birdie-and-the-fire">Birdie’s Tree books</a> can help children understand these events do pass and people help one another in times of difficulty. </p>
<p>Learning more about air pollution can help too. Our group has <a href="https://www.lsu.edu/srp/files/eddie_the_epfr_booklet.pdf">a children’s story</a> explaining how air pollution affects our bodies and what can help. </p>
<p>It’s also important for parents and caregivers not to get too stressed, as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14780887.2010.500358">children cope better</a> when their parents manage their own anxiety and help their children do the same. Try to strike a balance between being vigilant and staying calm.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-can-make-kids-scared-and-anxious-here-are-5-steps-to-help-them-cope-126926">Bushfires can make kids scared and anxious: here are 5 steps to help them cope</a>
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<h2>What about masks?</h2>
<p>N95 masks can protect the wearer from fine particles <a href="https://www.health.vic.gov.au/publications/face-masks-for-environmental-hazards">in bushfire smoke</a>, but their use is a bit complicated when it comes to kids. Most young children won’t be able to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1513/AnnalsATS.202008-990CME">fit properly</a> into an N95 mask, or won’t tolerate the tight fit for long periods. Also, their smaller airways make it harder for young children to breathe through a mask.</p>
<p>If you choose to use an N95 mask for your children, it’s best to save them for instances when high-level outdoor exposure is unavoidable, such as if you’re going outside when the smoke is very thick.</p>
<p>N95 masks should be replaced after <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/factsheets/Pages/face-mask.aspx">around four hours</a> or when they become damp.</p>
<p>If your child has an existing heart or lung condition, consult their doctor before having them wear an N95 mask.</p>
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<p><em>Our team is currently recruiting for a study exploring the effects of bushfire smoke in children. If you live in south east Queensland and are interested in participating in the event of a bushfire or hazard reduction burn near your home, please <a href="https://child-health-research.centre.uq.edu.au/research/research-groups/childrens-health-and-environment-program/ember-environmental-measures-bushfire-smoke-exposure-and-respiratory-health">express your interest here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215535/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dwan Vilcins receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Osborne has received speaking fees from Reckitt. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul D. Robinson receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.</span></em></p>Children are uniquely vulnerable to bushfire smoke because of their physiology and their behaviour.Dwan Vilcins, Group leader, Environmental Epidemiology, Children’s Health Environment Program, The University of QueenslandNicholas Osborne, Associate Professor, School of Public Health, The University of QueenslandPaul D. Robinson, Conjoint Professor in Respiratory and Sleep Medicine, Child Health Research Centre, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2227432024-02-21T19:12:19Z2024-02-21T19:12:19ZHard to kill: here’s why eucalypts are survival experts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576420/original/file-20240219-24-nbwq6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2094%2C1551&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flickr.com/photos/88123769@N02/8065560838">Bernard Spragg/Flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>They can recover from fire. Grow back from a bare stump. Shrug aside bark loss that would kill a lesser tree. Endure drought and floods. </p>
<p>Eucalypts are not interested in dying. They’re survivors. The world’s 800-plus species are almost all found in Australia, a continent with old, degraded soils and frequent fires and droughts. </p>
<p>In the fossil record, they first appear about 34 million years ago. As the Australian continent dried out, eucalypts <a href="https://www.science.org.au/curious/earth-environment/story-our-eucalypts">gradually emerged</a> as the dominant trees in all but the most arid and tropical areas. </p>
<p>But what is it about eucalypts that makes them survivors? It’s a combination. Leathery leaves. Fire-resistant bark. Dormant buds under bark, waiting for fire. Mallee roots (lignotubers) at ground level to let them regrow. Roots which put out special chemicals to unlock scarce nutrients. And gumnuts which use fire to germinate and get a head-start on any rivals. </p>
<p>In a difficult place to survive, they thrive. Here’s how they do it. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-research-reveals-how-forests-reduce-their-own-bushfire-risk-if-theyre-left-alone-201868">New research reveals how forests reduce their own bushfire risk, if they're left alone</a>
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<h2>Leaves</h2>
<p>Many gum species have leaves which hang vertically. These adaptations are about water. Water in Australia is often scarce, and it makes sense for trees to hold onto it when they have it. Vertical leaves means less direct sun, which means less evaporation. Their dry, leathery leaves also keep the water inside. It also improves their tolerance to bushfire. </p>
<h2>Bark</h2>
<p>Stringybark, ironbark, candlebark – the bark of eucalypts is used to identify them. But it’s also one of their great adaptations. The bark is often an excellent insulator against hot, dry summers as well as a <a href="https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/science-environment/2021/11/eucalyptus-and-the-ancient-kingdom-of-fire/">protective barrier</a> against fire. </p>
<p>Stringy bark is so fibrous that despite singeing and looking black on the surface, it <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/interactive/2023/tree-flammability/index.html">often doesn’t burn</a>, meaning buds beneath it are protected from damage.</p>
<h2>Buds</h2>
<p>Underneath the bark of a normal-looking eucalypt lie <a href="https://www.treenet.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2010-fire-trees-and-climate-change-g.-m.-moore.pdf">thousands of dormant buds</a>. These invisible “epicormic” buds are a remarkable adaptation, letting the tree rapidly regrow after bushfires, severe insect and animal grazing, storms, droughts or floods. </p>
<p>You can spot epicormic shoots sprouting up and down the trunks of gum trees after a fire, making them look like “toothbrush trees”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Eucalyptus Epicormic Buds" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576427/original/file-20240219-16-2svnqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576427/original/file-20240219-16-2svnqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576427/original/file-20240219-16-2svnqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576427/original/file-20240219-16-2svnqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576427/original/file-20240219-16-2svnqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576427/original/file-20240219-16-2svnqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576427/original/file-20240219-16-2svnqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Epicormic Shoots emerge from Eucalyptus buds hidden under the bark after a bush fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usforestservice/49836705293">Forest Service/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Epicormic shoots <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071375.2015.1066559">can grow</a> 27cm in a single day, or up to 6 metres in a year. When epicormic buds touch soil, they can sometimes develop as roots. This allows fallen trees or even large branches to re-establish and anchor after storms and floods. </p>
<p>You can sometimes see hundreds of woody spines on the trunks of old dead trees. These are a pointy reminder of how many undeveloped epicormic buds lurk under the bark.</p>
<h2>Mallee roots (lignotubers)</h2>
<p>As remarkable as epicormic buds are, they’re not the recovery mechanism of last resort. That job falls to the bulge at the bottom of many eucalypt trunks, which we often call “mallee roots”. </p>
<p>These are <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071375.2015.1066559">lignotubers</a>, remarkable adaptations possessed by most eucalypts. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Base of Eucalyptus Tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576423/original/file-20240219-30-66bvoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576423/original/file-20240219-30-66bvoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576423/original/file-20240219-30-66bvoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576423/original/file-20240219-30-66bvoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576423/original/file-20240219-30-66bvoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576423/original/file-20240219-30-66bvoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576423/original/file-20240219-30-66bvoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Lignotubers growing at the base of eucalyptus tree.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/eucalyptus-gum-tree-colorful-small-trunk-765407536">Anitham Raju Yaragorla/ShutterStock</a></span>
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<p>To appreciate the complexity and biological beauty of a lignotuber, imagine the trunk of a eucalypt with all its epicormic buds scrunched into a ball at the base of the trunk. The buds have direct access to a large root system able to supply water, nutrients and carbohydrates. </p>
<p>This is a gum tree’s emergency reboot option. Even when the tree above is falling apart, the lignotuber can rapidly regrow the tree at a rate of 6 metres or more in a year. </p>
<h2>Roots</h2>
<p>The roots of species such as river red gums drive deep into the soil along water courses, searching for subterranean water supplies as a backup in case the river dries up. </p>
<p>For other species, the solution to limited water is to send roots far and wide, often many times further than the tree’s height. In many species, the lignotuber and roots are buried under an insulating layer of soil. This acts as protection against fire. </p>
<p>That’s not all. Many eucalypt species produce “exudates” from their roots – chemicals which leach into the soil and free any locked-up nutrients in poor soils. </p>
<p>Still other exudates seep out to help feed mycorrhizal fungi in the soil. The gum trees do this as part of a wonderful symbiosis, allowing both tree and fungus to thrive. The gum gives sugar, the fungi give water and nutrients. </p>
<p>This underground exchange <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/root-exudate">greatly improves soil quality</a> and lets other species grow in difficult conditions. </p>
<h2>Gumnuts</h2>
<p>Gumnuts – woody fruits of eucalypts – are familiar to many of us from May Gibbs’ famous Snugglepot and Cuddlepie stories. </p>
<p>These capsules protect the tiny seeds inside from desiccation and fire. After a fire, eucalyptus fruit may be damaged or dry out. This frees the fine seeds, which sprinkle over the soil like pepper over dinner. </p>
<p>Some eucalypts rely not on lignotubers or epicormic buds but on the seeds <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/australians-love-a-home-among-gum-trees-but-can-eucalyptus-forests-recover-from-the-fires/2020/01/17/413d25fa-36b7-11ea-a1ff-c48c1d59a4a1_story.html">contained and protected</a> in those woody gumnuts. The seeds fall to the ground and germinate when conditions are right renewing the forest. </p>
<h2>Survivors – but not immortal</h2>
<p>In the years ahead, we’ll see natural disasters occurring more often and with greater ferocity as the climate changes. And in the aftermath, we will also see the spectacular and rapid responses of eucalypts – one of the world’s great families of survivors. </p>
<p>But we will also see dead forests. Gum trees do perish, despite their abilities to regenerate. Some species such as mountain ash are <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-victorias-iconic-mountain-ash-trees-at-risk-its-every-species-in-their-community-214582">not coping</a> with pressures such as logging and climate change, while thin-barked snow gums are <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/recurring-fires-are-threatening-the-iconic-snow-gum">struggling to cope</a> with new fire regimes. Every living thing has limits. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-the-australian-bush-is-recovering-from-bushfires-but-it-may-never-be-the-same-131390">Yes, the Australian bush is recovering from bushfires – but it may never be the same</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Moore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From sacrificial bark to fire-germinating gumnuts to stealthy buds the eucalyptus has evolved an arsenal of protective measures.Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172752024-02-20T19:57:01Z2024-02-20T19:57:01ZFire is a chemical reaction. Here’s why Australia is supremely suited to it<p>Over the last 15 million years, Australia has slowly dried out. After humans arrived more than 65,000 years ago, they learned to use fire to their advantage. Today, fire weather is getting more frequent – and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4">fires are following</a> as the world heats up. This month, fires have flared in Victoria, destroying 46 houses, while Western Australia endures a heatwave and braces for <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/extreme-fire-danger-conditions-on-tuesday-to-close-wa-schools-dfes-warns-20240219-p5f65r.html">potential fires</a>. </p>
<p>We use controlled fire for food, industry and many other uses. But we fear it when it is uncontrolled. For something so common, it’s not well understood. </p>
<p>Fire is chemistry – a set of reactions known as combustion. Here’s what that means – and why parts of Australia are so well suited to fire. </p>
<h2>What is fire?</h2>
<p>For a fire to start, it needs three things: fuel, an oxidising agent and heat. </p>
<p>In bushfires, the fuel is plant material, the oxidising agent is oxygen in the atmosphere, and the heat could come from lightning or the fire itself once it starts. </p>
<p>First, the heat has to get to the fuel. Plants are mostly comprised of cellulose (a natural carbohydrate polymer we can’t digest) and lignin (a complex aromatic hydrocarbon), alongside other organic molecules. </p>
<p>But big molecules such as cellulose and lignin don’t burn easily, unlike small molecules such as propane or ethanol. It takes an external heat source to get them to burn. This is normally in the form of lightning, the cause of <a href="https://fennerschool.anu.edu.au/news-events/events/which-lightning-strikes-ignite-bushfires-review-fire-neural-network-fnn-high-risk">most large bushfires</a>. But humans have added other sources – a flicked cigarette, angle-grinders, or sparks from a downed powerline. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="lightning striking tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">To start a fire, you need an external heat source such as lightning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/lightning-oak-tree-625416632">David Wheat/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>A little bit of extra heat won’t do it. But when cellulose and lignin are heated to 300°C, pyrolysis begins and the natural polymers begin to break down into small organic molecules, which promptly evaporate and form a gas. </p>
<p>At these temperatures, this gas rapidly reacts with oxygen in the air to produce carbon dioxide, water vapour – and heat. This is combustion. </p>
<p>As it burns, the gas becomes hot enough to glow, as do any solid particles within it. When we gaze at a campfire, that’s what we’re seeing – burning gas, glowing particles. </p>
<p>Many believe it’s the breaking of chemical bonds in the fuel that produces heat. But it’s actually the opposite. When we break any chemical bond, heat is absorbed. It’s making new chemical bonds that releases heat – the creation of water vapour and carbon dioxide. </p>
<p>These newly formed bonds are stronger than the bonds in the hydrocarbon fuel, meaning heat is released overall. So much heat that pyrolysis is sustained, consuming more fuel and spreading the fire. </p>
<h2>What about the water in plants?</h2>
<p>Plant material contains water as well as organic compounds. </p>
<p>There’s a unique bit of chemistry which takes place here. When heat first hits plant material, the water within begins to warm. But water has an extraordinarily high ability to store heat. </p>
<p>As water heats up, it begins to evaporate. Evaporation is endothermic, meaning it absorbs heat. That’s why we use it to stop ourselves overheating – we rely on sweat evaporating off our skin and taking heat with it. </p>
<p>This means you need still more energy to increase the temperature and overcome water’s heat absorbing properties. For pyrolysis to occur at all, the water in the plant matter has to evaporate. If there’s still water in the leaves or bark, it won’t burn. </p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-stuff-in-a-fire-extinguisher-stop-a-fire-120859">How does the stuff in a fire extinguisher stop a fire?</a>
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<h2>Fire weather and gum trees</h2>
<p>Australia’s forests and bushlands are mostly on the east coast, avoiding the arid interior. But they can’t avoid the extremely hot and dry air the deserts produce, especially over summer. </p>
<p>Hot air can hold a remarkable amount of water. Its ability to soak up water roughly doubles every 10°C. So hot, dry air acts like a sponge. It scours the water from plant matter and soaks it up. </p>
<p>Plant material largely comes from gum trees. Our hundreds of species are famously messy, dropping bark, leaves and limbs on the forest floor. </p>
<p>Eucalyptus leaves often contain large amounts of volatile organic oils. In dry conditions, these leaves act as like natural lighter fluid, or “pre-pyrolysed material”. </p>
<p>This is because eucalypts like fire. Fire wipes out competitor species and can trigger gumnut germination.</p>
<p>When a bushfire begins and starts to spread, it’s usually burning the dead, dry litter and grasses, not large living trees with plenty of water. </p>
<p>Dry fuel is one thing. But a bushfire needs wind to spread. </p>
<p>Hot days in Australia are often windy, due to the temperature difference between hot deserts and cold oceans. If a lightning triggers pyrolysis and starts a fire, wind is what makes it spread. </p>
<p>Wind provides fresh oxygen to the fire front, making it more intense. It also blows hot dry air over fresh fuel ahead of the fire front, drying it out. If there’s no wind, fire spreads much more slowly. </p>
<p>What does it take to end a bushfire? A large fire will naturally burn itself out if there’s no more fuel for it. Heavy rain can douse a fire, though coals can keep smouldering and restart fires if dry, hot air arrives again. </p>
<p>Firefighters make firebreaks to try to starve the fire of its fuel, spray water to wet and cool the fuel or apply chemical agents such as fire-fighting foam to prevent oxygen getting in. </p>
<p>If we add more and more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere it traps more heat, leading to hotter days. More heat means fire weather – hot, dry and windy conditions – is more likely. And that means combustion will be more likely in some places. Under climate change, there’s more fire in our future. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/before-fusion-a-human-history-of-fire-55198">Before fusion: a human history of fire</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217275/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Dutton receives funding from The Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>We’re all familiar with fire. But do you really know what it is and how it starts? Here’s the chemistry of fire – and why Australia is so prone to going up in flames.Jason Dutton, Professor of Chemistry, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2157892024-02-14T03:13:52Z2024-02-14T03:13:52ZBushfires in Victoria: how to protect yourself if the air is smoky where you live<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575509/original/file-20240214-16-ze61q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5760%2C3828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-woman-opening-curtains-bedroom-268319546">Izf/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bushfires broke out yesterday in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-14/victoria-power-outage-severe-storms-bushfires/103461286">western Victoria</a> during a day of extreme weather conditions across the state. Although authorities have reported the situation is easing, emergency services continue to fight blazes in the Grampians National Park around the towns of Bellfield and Pomonal.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1757301913719070855"}"></div></p>
<p>While the <a href="https://soe.dcceew.gov.au/air-quality/introduction">air quality in Australia</a> is generally good, events such as bushfires can have a significant effect. Smoke can travel long distances and reduce air quality throughout a city or region.</p>
<p>The combustion of vegetation produces a range of gases, including <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/protection/npi/resource/student/carbon-monoxide">carbon monoxide</a>, as well as fine particles, often described as PM2.5 (particles of 2.5 micrometres in diameter or less). These particles can remain suspended in the air for extended periods and, owing to their tiny size, can penetrate <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/pharmacology-toxicology-and-pharmaceutical-science/particle-deposition">deep into the lungs</a> when inhaled. </p>
<p>Exposure to PM2.5 in bushfire smoke can result in a range of symptoms including coughing, throat irritation, as well as irritation to the eyes and nose. It can make <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4740163/">existing conditions</a> such as asthma worse and increase <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/resp.13798">hospital presentations</a>. </p>
<p>The longer-term health effects of PM2.5 exposure are well established, with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412022004834">research</a> by the <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241565196">World Health Organization</a> and the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/air-research/research-health-effects-air-pollution#long-term-short-term">US Environmental Protection Agency</a> linking PM2.5 exposure to respiratory and heart disease. </p>
<p>Ultimately, poor air quality can affect all of us, with even healthy people experiencing symptoms when exposed to high concentrations of bushfire smoke.
There are, however, things we can do to protect ourselves.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/3-ways-to-prepare-for-bushfire-season-if-you-have-asthma-or-another-lung-condition-214065">3 ways to prepare for bushfire season if you have asthma or another lung condition</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Monitor the air quality</h2>
<p>Air quality indexes are based on measurements of PM2.5 and other pollutants. On air quality indexes lower numbers indicate higher air quality, and vice versa. A number of websites provide air quality index information, for example <a href="https://www.iqair.com/au/australia">IQAir</a> for locations around Australia, or <a href="https://waqi.info/">World’s Air Pollution</a> for locations globally.</p>
<p>There are also apps such as <a href="https://airrater.org/">AirRater</a> which can provide useful information in addition to air quality values, such as pollen levels.</p>
<p>Although a number is much more informative from a research point of view, these sorts of services also provide air quality ratings such as “poor, "fair” or “good”, which can be helpful for people who may be unfamiliar with what the numbers mean.</p>
<p>Notably, these sources indicate the air quality around Victoria remains good at present.</p>
<p>When looking at air quality index values or PM2.5 concentrations, it’s important to note these do not identify the sources of the particles, so not everything counted as PM2.5 on even a smoky day is necessarily bushfire smoke. But PM2.5 values are a good indicator of overall air quality. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Smoke over houses and trees." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557230/original/file-20231102-19-iimke4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557230/original/file-20231102-19-iimke4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557230/original/file-20231102-19-iimke4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557230/original/file-20231102-19-iimke4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557230/original/file-20231102-19-iimke4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557230/original/file-20231102-19-iimke4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557230/original/file-20231102-19-iimke4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When there’s a lot of smoke around, the air quality may be poor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-australia-20191204-australian-bushfire-smoke-1580277991">Daria Nipot/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A growing number of air quality monitors are available to buy for home use, which measure single pollutants or a number of pollutants. </p>
<p>However, these instruments are not the same as those used in statutory air quality monitoring stations (which provide data for websites like those mentioned above). Statutory stations are set up by regulators or government agencies and use instruments that must meet national or international standards. </p>
<p>In many cases the accuracy of <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/low-cost-air-pollution-monitors-and-indoor-air-quality">low-cost devices</a> may not be well established. And effective calibration – where the measurements are verified using an alternative method, as would happen in a statutory monitoring station – might not be possible, particularly by end users.</p>
<h2>Stay inside</h2>
<p>When the air is noticeably smoky, or the air quality index is high, it’s best to remain indoors with doors and windows closed if you can. </p>
<p>The threshold at which you make this decision may depend on your personal circumstances. For example, healthy people can generally continue outdoor activities when the air quality is “fair”. However, someone with a respiratory condition might need to decrease or stop outdoor activities at this point. If the air quality is “very poor”, everyone should <a href="https://www.der.wa.gov.au/your-environment/air/air-quality-index">stay indoors</a>.</p>
<p>If you have a particularly leaky home – say if you notice a draft, or odours from outside when the doors and windows are shut – then smoke ingress may be an issue. In this case, you may like to go elsewhere (for example, a friend’s house, or a public building with filtered air), provided it’s safe to do so. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-fires-are-not-easing-at-night-thats-a-bad-sign-for-the-summer-ahead-216732">Queensland's fires are not easing at night. That's a bad sign for the summer ahead</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A high-powered air cleaner or purifier with a HEPA (high efficiency particulate air) filter may also offer some benefit, especially for people with respiratory conditions.</p>
<p>If you get one of these, remember placement is important. Portable units may work for a single room, but not a whole house. Consider the best location for these devices (probably the room where you spend the most time). </p>
<p>Ultimately only the air which passes through the filter will be treated, so the size of the unit must be appropriate for the space. The <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/choosing-an-air-purifier">Victorian government</a> offers some advice on how to ascertain what sort of unit will be suitable for your space. </p>
<p>When staying indoors it’s safe to use air conditioners, provided they recirculate the air already in the house (and the windows and doors are closed). Reverse-cycle air conditioners are a good option if you have them. Any system which draws in outside air without treatment should be avoided.</p>
<h2>Wear a mask if going outside</h2>
<p>If you need to go out when the air quality is poor, a P2 (or N95) mask provides protection from smoke particles in the air (but <a href="https://asthma.org.au/wp-content/uploads/Resources/P2-Mask.pdf">not gases</a> such as carbon monoxide). For effective protection, the mask should be fitted properly and worn for the duration of your time outdoors.</p>
<p>Respirator masks may not be a good option for those with existing health conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, so in these cases people should seek medical advice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215789/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan Mead-Hunter receives funding from NHMRC and the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation.</span></em></p>Smoke from bushfires can travel significant distances and reduce air quality throughout a city or region.Ryan Mead-Hunter, Senior lecturer, School of Population Health, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221612024-02-13T02:34:02Z2024-02-13T02:34:02Z‘Fascinating and troubling’: Australians would rather save a single human life than prevent an entire species from becoming extinct<p>Australia is in the grip of an escalating extinction crisis. Since colonisation, 100 native plant and animal species have become <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S000632071930895X">formally listed</a> as extinct due to human activities. The actual number is undoubtedly far <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-re-counted-australias-extinct-species-and-the-result-is-devastating-127611">higher</a>.</p>
<p>Surveys <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S000632072100375X">suggest</a> Australians want to prevent extinctions, regardless of the financial cost. But when it comes to the crunch, how much do we really care? </p>
<p>In emergency situations, there is a long-held <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/natural-disasters">convention</a> that official responders such as firefighters first attempt to save human life, then property and infrastructure, then natural assets.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.14230">research</a> published <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/15231739/0/0">today</a> investigated whether this convention reflects community values. We found the people we surveyed valued one human life more than the extinction of an entire non-human species – a result both fascinating and troubling.</p>
<h2>What are we willing to lose?</h2>
<p>Catastrophic events force us to make hard choices about what to save and what to abandon. In such emergencies, our choices reveal in stark detail the values we ascribe to different types of “assets”, including plant and animal species.</p>
<p>Our priorities will become even more crucial under climate change, which is <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020RG000726">bringing</a> worse bushfires and other environmental catastrophes. If nature is always saved last, we can expect recurring biodiversity losses, including extinctions.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/geb.13473">unprecedented</a> loss of biodiversity in the Black Summer fires was a taste of what’s to come. The <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-burning-of-australia-s-nature">fires burnt</a> the entire known range of more than 500 plant and animal species and at least half the range of more than 100 threatened species. The catastrophe led to at least <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/aen.12506">one extinction</a> – of a mealybug species in Western Australia.</p>
<p>The losses prompted reflection on our priorities. The <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/departments-and-agencies/premiers-department/access-to-information/nsw-bushfire-inquiry/nsw-bushfire-inquiry-report">final report</a> of a New South Wales parliamentary inquiry into the bushfires, for example, questioned if this hierarchy of protection should always apply. </p>
<p>Our new research investigated community values on this issue. The findings were illuminating.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-re-counted-australias-extinct-species-and-the-result-is-devastating-127611">Scientists re-counted Australia's extinct species, and the result is devastating</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Making the hard choices</h2>
<p>The survey involved 2,139 Australians. Respondents ranked the assets they would save in a hypothetical bushfire, choosing from the following options:</p>
<ul>
<li>a person not warned to evacuate</li>
<li>a person who had ignored advice to evacuate (and so implicitly taken responsibility for their own safety)</li>
<li>a population of 50 koalas (of which many other populations exist elsewhere)</li>
<li>one of only two populations of a wallaby species</li>
<li>the only population of a native snail species (which would become extinct if burnt)</li>
<li>the only population of a native shrub species (which would become extinct if burnt)</li>
<li>a flock of 50 sheep</li>
<li>a house, shed and tractor</li>
<li>two items of Indigenous cultural significance (a rock art gallery and a tree carving).</li>
</ul>
<p>Survey respondents overwhelmingly gave the highest ranking to the two options involving saving a human life – even if that person had been repeatedly told to evacuate and even if, as a consequence, a snail or shrub species became extinct. </p>
<p>Saving a person who had not received evacuation warnings was rated highest, ahead of saving a person who ignored evacuation advice. Saving the koala population was next preferred, followed by saving the wallaby population.</p>
<p>The remaining options had negative scores, meaning that respondents were more likely to choose them as least important than most important.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph showing what survey respondents chose to save in a bushfire." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572347/original/file-20240131-29-cz6313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572347/original/file-20240131-29-cz6313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572347/original/file-20240131-29-cz6313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572347/original/file-20240131-29-cz6313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572347/original/file-20240131-29-cz6313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572347/original/file-20240131-29-cz6313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572347/original/file-20240131-29-cz6313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scores for each asset, calculated as the number of times (out of five possible choices offered for that asset) a respondent chose the asset as their highest priority minus the number of times the asset was chosen as the lowest priority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Amongst the biodiversity assets, decisions based on conservation consequences would have meant the top priority was preventing the extinction of the snail and shrub populations. Next in line would have been the wallaby population, then a relatively less consequential loss of koalas. </p>
<p>But the results were the opposite: people prioritised the koalas over the wallabies, with less concern for the shrub and the snail. Ranked even lower were the items of Indigenous cultural significance. Saving the house and shed had lowest rankings.</p>
<h2>The results are revealing</h2>
<p>We take several key messages from the survey results.</p>
<p>First, the conventional hierarchy of protection during fire – prioritising human life, then infrastructure, then biodiversity – does not always reflect societal values. Sometimes, protecting natural assets is more important than protecting at least some infrastructure. In the Black Summer fires, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed-198989">attempts to save</a> crucial populations of the imperilled Wollemi Pine showed such protection of biodiversity assets is possible.</p>
<p>Second, our society values one human life more than the millions of years of evolution that can be eclipsed almost instantaneously in the extinction of another species. </p>
<p>Third, our regard for nature is far from egalitarian. In this case, the preference for saving koalas is consistent with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1617138105000671">previous studies</a> that show we care far more for iconic cute mammals than other species.</p>
<p>Fourth, animal welfare issues may trump consideration for conservation consequences. We suspect that the haunting <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1329878X211008181">imagery of koalas</a> suffering in the Black Summer wildfires may have contributed to them being prioritised ahead of more imperilled species. </p>
<p>And finally, our results were troubling for the conservation of poorly known species, the extinctions of which are <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1502350112">increasing</a> around the world. These losses have been largely disregarded or unmourned by society. </p>
<p>It suggests the case for saving such species needs to be better made. <a href="https://invertebratesaustralia.org/">Australia’s invertebrate fauna</a> is highly distinctive, fascinating and vital for the health of our ecosystems. To prevent mass losses of invertebrate species, we must take action now.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-remarkable-stories-of-flora-and-fauna-in-the-aftermath-of-australias-horror-bushfire-season-155749">5 remarkable stories of flora and fauna in the aftermath of Australia’s horror bushfire season</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="red and green snail" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575157/original/file-20240212-18-dfzfvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575157/original/file-20240212-18-dfzfvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575157/original/file-20240212-18-dfzfvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575157/original/file-20240212-18-dfzfvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575157/original/file-20240212-18-dfzfvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575157/original/file-20240212-18-dfzfvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575157/original/file-20240212-18-dfzfvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s invertebrate fauna is highly distinctive. Pictured: a Tasmanian snail, Attenborougharion rubicundus, named after Sir David Attenborough.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">S. Grove/Tasmanian Museum & Art Gallery</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rethinking our priorities?</h2>
<p>The world is becoming more perilous. There’s a high risk of losing much of the nature that surrounds us, supports us and helps define us as Australians. </p>
<p>We must think carefully about what future we bequeath to our children and to future generations. This may require reconsidering our priorities – and in some cases, making different choices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222161/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Woinarski is affiliated with the Biodiversity Council, Australian Wildlife Conservancy and Invertebrates Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerstin Zander receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Garnett receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with BirdLife Australia.</span></em></p>Survey respondents overwhelmingly prioritised saving a human life – even if that person had been repeatedly told to evacuate and even if, as a consequence, a snail or shrub species became extinct.John Woinarski, Professor of Conservation Biology, Charles Darwin UniversityKerstin Zander, Professor of Environmental Economics, Charles Darwin UniversityStephen Garnett, Professor of Conservation and Sustainable Livelihoods, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223932024-02-06T05:02:52Z2024-02-06T05:02:52ZClimate change will strike Australia’s precious World Heritage sites – and Indigenous knowledge is a key defence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573359/original/file-20240205-25-njg9qp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=64%2C6%2C4217%2C2837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cezary Wojtkowski, Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>From Kakadu to Uluru and the Great Barrier Reef, to Sydney Opera House and the convict sites, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/parks-heritage/heritage/places/world-heritage-list">Australia’s list</a> of World Heritage places is incredibly diverse. Each site represents the culture, nature and history of this land, in its own way. </p>
<p>But climate change threatens these sites. Many heritage values are already being eroded. On-ground managers of these and other protected places need practical guidance on how to understand these impacts and respond effectively. </p>
<p>We developed a <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/parks-heritage/heritage/publications/climate-change-toolkit-world-properties">climate change “toolkit” for World Heritage properties</a> with site managers and Traditional Owners. To our knowledge, it is the first time such guidance has been co-developed and tested with World Heritage property managers and Indigenous experts in this country.</p>
<p>Bringing climate science and Indigenous knowledge systems together promises to produce better results for heritage protection as the climate changes. And there is no time to waste. We must act fast to address these threats to Australia’s unique and special places of global significance, so their World Heritage values can be enjoyed for generations to come.</p>
<h2>Mounting climate threats to heritage</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110459">Our new research</a> explored climate impacts at three very different sites: </p>
<ol>
<li><a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/147/">Kakadu National Park</a>, Northern Territory</li>
<li><a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1306">Australian Convict Sites</a>, scattered around the country</li>
<li><a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/167/">Willandra Lakes Region</a>, southwest New South Wales.</li>
</ol>
<p>The vast tropical <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/147/">Kakadu National Park</a> is one of four Australian properties listed for both outstanding cultural and natural values. Cave paintings, rock carvings and archaeological sites date back tens of thousands of years. Tidal flats, floodplains, lowlands and plateaus provide habitat for many rare or endemic plants and animals.</p>
<p>But Kakadu is vulnerable to rising sea levels, leading to coastal erosion and saltwater entering wetlands. The region is also experiencing more extreme temperatures and heatwaves, changing fire regimes, more intense cyclones, and increasingly intense extreme rainfall events. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1306/">Convict Sites</a> consist of 11 properties around Australia. Fremantle Prison lies 5,500km west of Arthur’s Vale Historic Area in the east. The Old Great North Road in the north is 1,500km from the Port Arthur Historic Site in the south.</p>
<p>Many convict sites are on coasts and islands where wave action and sea level rise are increasingly damaging structures, landscapes and cultural materials. Convict sites are also vulnerable to storms and bushfires because the buildings are so old. </p>
<p>The arid <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/167/">Willandra Lakes Region</a> contains fossil remains of a series of lakes and sand formations, along with archaeological evidence of human occupation dating back 45,000–60,000 years.</p>
<p>Hot and dry conditions are causing erosion of topsoil, increasingly exposing Aboriginal cultural heritage.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573669/original/file-20240206-19-5b8ppw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Outback landscape with delicate structures at Red Top lookout, Willandra Lakes, along the large lunette formed by wind and water erosion along a dried up lake" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573669/original/file-20240206-19-5b8ppw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573669/original/file-20240206-19-5b8ppw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573669/original/file-20240206-19-5b8ppw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573669/original/file-20240206-19-5b8ppw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573669/original/file-20240206-19-5b8ppw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573669/original/file-20240206-19-5b8ppw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573669/original/file-20240206-19-5b8ppw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change is exacerbating erosion at the Willandra Lakes World Heritage site.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/outback-landscape-delicate-structures-red-top-794485033">Leah-Anne Thompson, Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-must-be-a-catalyst-for-reform-of-the-world-heritage-system-191798">Climate change must be a catalyst for reform of the World Heritage system</a>
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<h2>Tapping into deep knowledge</h2>
<p>We worked closely with these sites to develop and test our new toolkit.</p>
<p>An Indigenous Reference Group of Traditional Owners from a number of World Heritage sites in Australia contributed their expert knowledge. This includes practical guidance such as how to engage with and enable Indigenous leadership so Traditional Owners can participate in or lead climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. The toolkit also describes using the right knowledge for the right Country (showing respect for traditional knowledge) and establishing agreements to ensure Indigenous cultural and intellectual property rights <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/publications/2016/10/free-prior-and-informed-consent-an-indigenous-peoples-right-and-a-good-practice-for-local-communities-fao/">are protected</a>.</p>
<p>Effectively addressing climate impacts on World Heritage values requires the deep knowledge, values and worldviews of <a href="https://lcipp.unfccc.int/">Indigenous Peoples and local communities</a>. This includes practices such as cultural burning to reduce the risk of intense bushfire, or cultural knowledge of long-term changes in water cycles. Tapping into this deep understanding of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01153-1">connections between nature and culture</a> can help support the management of spiritual, living landscapes. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1751832543866044903"}"></div></p>
<h2>Adapting to climate change</h2>
<p>World Heritage site managers can take a broad range of practical actions to adapt to climate change. </p>
<p>These actions, such as firefighting or invasive species control, may not be new. They just need to be undertaken more often or intensely. </p>
<p>Other variations on existing actions may include greater emphasis on physical separation between flammable vegetation and assets such as larger firebreaks, or responding to new invasive species, possibly including shifting ranges of invasive native species. </p>
<p>Some new management actions will be required, such as flood protection, relocating assets and new technological interventions. In cases where climate change is likely to lead to changes in the values of a site, there may be a need to reevaluate management objectives and strategies (such as accommodating new groups of organisms or “ecological communities”, letting some populations decline, and managed retreat of shorelines). </p>
<p>There may also be a need to consider vulnerability at different scales, sometimes across larger areas. In some cases, managers may aim to retain certain values across a wider landscape while accepting local change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573684/original/file-20240206-17-l01akv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo of Darlington, a convict site on Maria Island, Tasmania, take from some distance away to show all of the buildings together, with trees in the foreground and background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573684/original/file-20240206-17-l01akv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573684/original/file-20240206-17-l01akv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573684/original/file-20240206-17-l01akv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573684/original/file-20240206-17-l01akv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573684/original/file-20240206-17-l01akv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573684/original/file-20240206-17-l01akv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573684/original/file-20240206-17-l01akv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Darlington, on Maria Island, Tasmania, is one of 11 properties grouped together under the Australian Convict Sites World Heritage listing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/darlington-historic-settlement-on-maria-island-247616818">David Lade, Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-adaptation-projects-sometimes-exacerbate-the-problems-they-try-to-solve-a-new-tool-hopes-to-correct-that-213969">Climate adaptation projects sometimes exacerbate the problems they try to solve – a new tool hopes to correct that</a>
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<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Managers, stakeholders and rights-holders of World Heritage sites and other protected places, such as <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/wetlands/australian-wetlands-database/australian-ramsar-wetlands">Ramsar wetlands</a> and <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/nrsmpa-protect.pdf">marine protected areas</a>, can now use the toolkit to plan for current and future climate threats. They can focus on the parts most useful to them, depending on their capacity and needs. Ultimately, this resource will help protect Australia’s cultural and natural heritage.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The following people were members of the Indigenous Reference Group and are coauthors of our research paper: Bianca McNeair, Lance Syme, Chrissy Grant, Nicholas Pedrocchi, Patricia Oakley, Amy Stevens, Denis Rose, Erin Rose, Jade Gould, John Locke and Lynda Maybanks.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jess Melbourne-Thomas received funding for this work from the Australian Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brenda Lin received funding for this work from the Australian Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lance Syme is Principal Archaeologist at Kayandel Archaeological Services, providing cultural heritage and archaeological consulting services throughout New South Wales. He is now working part-time for the International Indigenous Peoples Forum on World Heritage. Funding for the work described in this article came from the Australian Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mandy Hopkins received funding for this work from the Australian Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. This led to further support for vulnerability assessments from Budj Bim world heritage property management. </span></em></p>Researchers, managers and Traditional Owners are joining forces to understand and combat climate threats to Australia’s many unique World Heritage sites.Jess Melbourne-Thomas, Transdisciplinary Researcher & Knowledge Broker, CSIROBrenda Lin, Principal research scientist, CSIROLance Syme, Secretariat at the International Indigenous Peoples Forum on World Heritage, Indigenous KnowledgeMandy Hopkins, Adjunct industry fellow, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147122024-01-28T19:05:07Z2024-01-28T19:05:07ZDo we want a wind farm outside our window? What Australians think about the net zero transition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557393/original/file-20231103-19-qqubic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1735%2C1796&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/man-in-white-dress-shirt-and-blue-denim-jeans-sitting-on-white-and-black-solar-panel-wmaP3Tl80ww">Bill Mead, Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A paradox lies at the heart of Australian public opinion about climate change. While there is clear general support for substantial government action to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, there is also strong concern about the local impacts of new renewable energy infrastructure. </p>
<p>The rise of protest groups in regional Australia objecting to the installation of wind farms and transmission lines, in particular, presents a serious challenge to the Albanese government in communicating the importance of the net zero transition to the public.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In principle it seems that Australians strongly support this transition. In a poll for the Australia Institute’s <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Climate-of-the-Nation-2023-Web.pdf">Climate of the Nation report</a> last year, two in three respondents went as far as to say our country should be a world leader in climate action.</p>
<p>Similarly, a 2020 <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/Australia_s_Clean_Technology_Future_Audience_Perceptions_and_Message_Framing/23896950">Monash University study</a> found eight out of ten Australians think the shift to renewable energy is inevitable, and two-thirds think we should be exporting renewable energy.</p>
<p>Studies also show <a href="https://doi.org/10.25919/fqbk-0y13">strong support</a> for renewable energy production through solar farms, with 90% of Australians prepared to live within ten kilometres of one, according to a 2021 CSIRO study. And a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/31/guardian-essential-poll-results-labor-net-zero-climate-change-renewables#:%7E:text=The%20poll%20found%2038%25%20of,height%20of%20black%20summer%20bushfires.">Guardian Essential poll</a> from October last year found about 70% of respondents supported solar farms and 60% supported both offshore and onshore wind farms.</p>
<h2>Local opposition to the net zero transition</h2>
<p>But at the same time the installation of these same wind farms has attracted strong local protests, especially in NSW and Victoria. There has also been <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">significant community pushback</a> to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s plan to install 10,000 kilometres of overground transmission lines, which are key to carrying renewable energy to the electricity grid. Only 35% of respondents in the Guardian Essential poll supported them. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-homes-can-be-made-climate-ready-reducing-bills-and-emissions-a-new-report-shows-how-219113">Australian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how</a>
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<p>In an equally serious challenge for the net zero transition, 70% of respondents felt renewable energy should not be developed “at the expense of local communities”.</p>
<p>In a bid to address these concerns, the Australian Energy Market Commission has drafted <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/news-centre/media-releases/final-community-engagement-rules-major-transmission-projects">new community engagement rules</a> to ensure communities are involved early in the process of designing the routes of transmission lines.</p>
<p>The changes seek to ensure all stakeholders get information about a project in a clear and timely fashion (including advice on how they can best play a role) and have opportunities to be regularly involved throughout the planning of projects.</p>
<h2>A more nuanced look at public opinion</h2>
<p>There might be an even bigger issue that helps to explain the tension between apparent general support for acting to arrest global warming and local opposition to specific renewable energy projects. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352154621000929?via%3Dihub">Segmentation studies</a>, first undertaken in 2008 by researchers at Yale and George Mason Universities in the United States, and replicated in many countries, including Australia, are valuable for explaining this apparent paradox.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-laggard-to-leader-why-australia-must-phase-out-fossil-fuel-exports-starting-now-219912">From laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now</a>
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<p>These studies break down views on climate change into segments of the population with different levels of concern. The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352154621000929?via%3Dihub">original research</a> divided American popular opinion into six groups: Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful and Dismissive. </p>
<p>The spectrum ranges from those most worried about climate change and who tend to take the most action, both in their personal lives and politically, to those who either don’t accept climate change is happening, or feel it isn’t something we need to address.</p>
<p>A range of segmentation studies conducted in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2022.2048407">2011, 2016, 2020</a> <a href="https://sunriseproject.org/compass/">and 2022</a> by researchers from both Australia and the US show Australians have become more worried over time. The Alarmed segment more than doubled between 2011 and 2022.</p>
<p>However, the studies show different segments of the population have different views of when we need to act to arrest climate change. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://sunriseproject.org/compass/">2022 Climate Compass report</a> highlights that people in the Concerned segment — the largest group, comprising one in four Australians — feel climate change is a serious problem but that its impacts will be most felt by future generations. These Australians see cost of living as a much more urgent problem. </p>
<p>While the polling data do not show whether many protesters against renewable energy projects belong to the Concerned segment of the population, it remains essential to explore communication strategies that might move the large numbers of Australians who identify as Concerned into the Alarmed camp. One way to do this might be on the nightly TV news. </p>
<h2>Looking more closely at the weather</h2>
<p>From flooding to heat, many Australian extreme weather records <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/stateof2022/">have been broken</a> in recent years. Some people feel that is part and parcel of living in Australia, and remain unaware of the connection between climate change and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather. And it can be difficult to translate complex climate phenomena into terms the public can easily understand.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>Yet while the research is not conclusive, there is <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-events-are-exactly-the-time-to-talk-about-climate-change-heres-why-210412#:%7E:text=But%20research%20offers%20contrasting%20results,these%20effects%20are%20only%20temporary.">good evidence</a> that floods, fires and heat waves increase popular concern about global warming by exposing the connection between extreme weather and climate change. <a href="https://www.monash.edu/mcccrh/publications/reports/a-survey-of-australian-tv-audiences-views-on-climate-change">Research from our centre</a> argues that weather presenters can play a greater role in making this connection clearer. Australians see weather presenters, along with climate scientists, farmers and fire fighters, as the most trusted sources of information about climate change. </p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Whether or not we fully understand the ways climate change is impacting our society, most Australians realise it’s only going to get worse unless we do something about it. We’ve now moved into the implementation phase of the net zero transition, but many doubt that we’ll achieve it in time. The Guardian Essential poll <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/31/guardian-essential-poll-results-labor-net-zero-climate-change-renewables#:%7E:text=The%20poll%20found%2038%25%20of,height%20of%20black%20summer%20bushfires.">showed just 31% of respondents</a> felt it was “very” or “quite” likely Australia would achieve its net zero target.</p>
<p>Therefore, it is crucial that we ramp up action towards transforming our energy sector, but it’s equally important that communities be part of deciding how this is achieved. In doing so, we can improve public support, and bring net zero within reach. </p>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucy Richardson has received funding from the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation for research on community attitudes to renewable energy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ella Healy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australians want government to act on climate change, but not necessarily now, or in their neighbourhood. How can governments resolve this dilemma?Lucy Richardson, Post Doctoral Research Fellow, Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub, Monash UniversityElla Healy, Operations Manager, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209402024-01-17T23:10:26Z2024-01-17T23:10:26ZWe can’t rely on the ‘dogs breakfast’ of disaster warnings to do the hard work of building community resilience<p>In the wake of cyclone Jasper, the new Australian Warning System has been roundly criticised. The system has been characterised as a “dog’s breakfast” and a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-16/ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-bugs-australian-warning-system/103235574">cock-up of massive proportions</a>”.</p>
<p>For both emergency warnings, as well as for general awareness-raising around disaster preparedness, one-way communications are the default in risk management. </p>
<p>This reliance on communications is wishful thinking.</p>
<p>Whether as text messages and alerts when disasters strike, or as pamphlets and expert advice to encourage preparedness, we need to rethink how we use communications if we want more resilient communities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-disaster-strikes-emergency-responders-cant-respond-to-every-call-communities-must-be-helped-to-help-themselves-216644">When disaster strikes, emergency responders can't respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves</a>
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<h2>Warnings reflect unreasonable expectations</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-16/ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-bugs-australian-warning-system/103235574">noted by Australians</a> in the aftermath of cyclone Jasper and the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-maribyrnong-river-flood-warnings-that-receded-then-went-unheeded-20230928-p5e8ft.html">Maribyrnong floods</a>, the advice in warnings is often perceived to be incorrect, late, vague, and confusing.</p>
<p>Rather than an error that can be <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/maribyrnong-flood-forecasting-and-early-warnings-must-be-improved-report-finds-20231006-p5ea7x.html">fixed with better content</a>, this reflects unreasonable expectations. </p>
<p>We expect a warning to be sufficiently abstract to be useful across large regions and for many people with varying levels of exposure and capacity. </p>
<p>At the same time, we also expect information specific enough for stressed and possibly traumatised individuals to implement in life-threatening situations.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1740654928207687854"}"></div></p>
<p>In response to recommendations from numerous inquiries, authorities have applied standards and terminology to ensure consistency. While this sounds reasonable, it means that future warnings will continue to be ineffective.</p>
<p>It is worth repeating that risks are <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/files/670_72351.pdf">dynamic</a> and personal. Communications useful to a young, well-connected longtime resident will be received very differently by a middle aged, isolated, “tree change” individual who has grown up in urban areas.</p>
<p>That a generic warning is unable to satisfy the needs of diverse individuals, experiencing varying levels of hazard, spread over large areas, and over time is unsurprising. What is surprising is the belief that “better warnings” will.</p>
<h2>Repeating the same mistakes</h2>
<p>Warnings and awareness raising for disaster preparedness reflect how the risk sector relies on communications to “engage” the public. This is based on a <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.570">discredited</a> approach that assumes communications can prompt targeted, lasting behaviour change.</p>
<p>The development of the <a href="https://www.australianwarningsystem.com.au">Australian Warning System</a> reflects this reliance. It is a position reaffirmed in the reports, commissions, and inquiries that have followed recent Australian disasters. </p>
<p>For example, in the 2020 <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2020-12/Royal%20Commission%20into%20National%20Natural%20Disaster%20Arrangements%20-%20Report%20%20%5Baccessible%5D.pdf">Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements</a>, a whole chapter is dedicated to “Emergency Information and Warnings”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disastrous-floods-in-wa-why-were-we-not-prepared-197407">Disastrous floods in WA – why were we not prepared?</a>
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<p>Similarly, one focus of the ongoing <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/floodinquiry">inquiry</a> into the 2022 Victorian floods is on the “adequacy and effectiveness of early warning systems”. As it was for the 2011 <a href="http://floodsreview.archive.vic.gov.au/about-the-review/final-report.html">Comrie Review</a>, communications go unquestioned as the primary way to engage the public.</p>
<p>Frustration with repeated failure is becoming evident as successive commissions and inquiries hear the echoes of past efforts. The NSW 2022 <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government/projects-and-initiatives/floodinquiry">flood inquiry</a> stands out for its blunt recognition that Australians appear to be locked in a cycle. Disasters expose systemic failings that result in recommendations that go unimplemented. The report read:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Inquiry heard a deep sense of frustration from many flood-affected residents and community members over a lack of implementation and change over time, despite multiple previous reviews. Many were sceptical that this Inquiry would succeed in effecting significant change. Similar findings on implementation (or lack thereof) were made in the 2020 NSW Independent Bushfire Inquiry, which recommended that a central accountability mechanism be established to track implementation of the report.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But what is missed in all of these reviews is a critical examination of our tendency to default to communications.</p>
<h2>The cost of being reactive</h2>
<p>Part of the problem with our reliance on communications is that, in the case of warnings, by the time they arrive we are reacting to an unfolding crisis, rather than preparing for one. This raises the costs significantly.</p>
<p>The resulting costs of disasters, currently $38 billion annually, are <a href="https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/services/economics/perspectives/building-australias-natural-disaster-resilience.html">expected to rise</a> to between $73 and $94 billion annually by 2060, according to a Deloitte report. The report argued:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Australian economy is facing $1.2 trillion in cumulative costs of natural disasters over the next 40 years even under a low emissions scenario. This shows there is the potential for large economic gains from investments to improve Australia’s resilience to natural disasters. Targeted investments in both physical (such as infrastructure) and community (such as preparedness programs) resilience measures are predicted to significantly reduce the increasing costs of natural disasters</p>
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<p>Disaster costs are an unavoidably shared burden. Whether in the form of disaster response, relief, and recovery or in the form of investment in preparedness, <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/64-million-package-ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-disaster-recovery">public funds</a> will inevitably be required in ever-larger amounts.</p>
<p>This situation results in <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-s-floods-were-fourth-most-costly-global-disaster-in-2022-20230110-p5cbhx">astronomical expenditures</a> during events and, later, “pinching pennies” for preparedness. This bias towards response and recovery over preparedness is known, made all the more frustrating because preparedness is <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/disaster-funding/report">shown to be</a> cost-effective.</p>
<h2>So what should happen instead?</h2>
<p>Communications do not create community resilience, they activate it. </p>
<p>Our recent research shows that, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12861">rather than communications</a>, we need to engage meaningfully with communities. This means respecting their positions and values and appreciating that resilience is a long, slow, collaborative process that requires humility, active listening, experience, reflection, and support. </p>
<p>Our research shows that by conducting one-on-one engagement with members of the community, we can better understand their circumstances and support their agency. This has helped people as they learn about risk. They’ve shared lessons with their neighbours and helped family members to better protect themselves. This means we’re seeing knowledge and risk mitigation <a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/epdf/10.1142/S2345737623410014">circulate through communities</a>. </p>
<p>This way of partnering takes time and takes work, but it opens pathways for the learning and behaviour changes that help our communities expand their resilience. While it is expensive, the predicted costs of disasters more than justify such efforts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/every-australian-will-be-touched-by-climate-change-so-lets-start-a-national-conversation-about-how-well-cope-196934">Every Australian will be touched by climate change. So let's start a national conversation about how we'll cope</a>
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<p>As parts of Queensland and Victoria continue to be battered by disasters, it is time to admit that communications alone do not build resilience. They play an important role, but they are only one element of what needs to be a long-term partnership.</p>
<p>Rather than scooping the “dog’s breakfast” back into the bowl, we need to consider the underlying causes of the mess. With resilience, Australians will be ready and able to share in the growing burden of risk management.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Robert Cook receives funding from Melbourne Water. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Kamstra does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whether it’s pamphlets aimed at prevention or text alerts, mass communication is often relied on during disasters. This flawed approach can be improved by engaging meaningfully with communities.Brian Robert Cook, Associate Professor of Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208362024-01-10T19:15:34Z2024-01-10T19:15:34ZHow 2023’s record heat worsened droughts, floods and bushfires around the world<p>2023 was a year of record-breaking heat, devastating storms and floods, deepening droughts and raging wildfires. These events showed how climate change is affecting the global water cycle and our livelihoods.</p>
<p>Our international team of researchers has released a report, the <a href="https://www.globalwater.online/">Global Water Monitor</a>, documenting the impact of the record heat in 2023 on the water cycle. We used data from thousands of ground stations and satellites to provide real-time information on various environmental parameters. </p>
<p>The report summarises conditions and events in 2023 and long-term trends. We found global warming is profoundly changing the water cycle. As a result, we are seeing more rapid and severe droughts as well as more severe storms and flood events. </p>
<p>Scores of countries had record average annual temperatures in 2023. Severe droughts hit three continents. The world’s largest forests suffered, with Canada battling <a href="https://theconversation.com/yellowknife-and-kelowna-wildfires-burn-in-what-is-already-canadas-worst-season-on-record-211817">huge fires</a> and the Amazon <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03469-6">hit hard by drought</a>.</p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16401198/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/16401198/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/16401198" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"></a></div>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-heatwave-in-antarctica-totally-blew-the-minds-of-scientists-they-set-out-to-decipher-it-and-here-are-the-results-220672">A heatwave in Antarctica totally blew the minds of scientists. They set out to decipher it – and here are the results</a>
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<h2>Heat is drying out the world</h2>
<p>The most obvious sign of the climate crisis is the unprecedented heat waves that swept the globe in 2023. Earth’s <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/even-warmer-expected-2023-was-hottest-year-record">hottest year on record</a> gave us a glimpse of what a typical year with 1.5°C of warming may look like. Global warming consistently more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is expected to have extreme and irreversible impacts on the Earth system.</p>
<p>Some 77 countries experienced their highest average annual temperature in at least 45 years. Temperature records were shattered from Canada to Brazil, Spain to Thailand.</p>
<p>The high temperatures were often accompanied by very low air humidity. The relative air humidity of the global land surface was the second-driest on record in 2023.</p>
<p>Rapid drying of farms and forests caused crops to fail and <a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-is-consuming-more-than-ever-of-the-worlds-forests-threatening-supplies-of-wood-and-paper-216643">forests to burn</a>. Lack of rain and soaring temperatures intensified multi-year droughts in vulnerable regions such as South America, the Horn of Africa and the Mediterranean.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-is-consuming-more-than-ever-of-the-worlds-forests-threatening-supplies-of-wood-and-paper-216643">Fire is consuming more than ever of the world's forests, threatening supplies of wood and paper</a>
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<p>The past two decades have significantly increased air temperatures and reduced air humidity. This continuing trend toward drier conditions is threatening agriculture, biodiversity and overall water security.</p>
<p>These conditions heighten heat stress and increase the water needs of people, crops and ecosystems.</p>
<p>Scorching conditions inflicted extensive damage on the world’s largest forests. Massive wildfires ravaged Canada during the northern summer. Later in the year the Amazon rainforest and rivers descended into severe drought.</p>
<p>The world’s forests have been soaking up a lot of our fossil fuel emissions. That’s because plant photosynthesis absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Large disturbances like fire and drought reduce or even <a href="https://theconversation.com/unprecedented-drought-in-the-amazon-threatens-to-release-huge-stores-of-carbon-podcast-219250">reverse that function</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unprecedented-drought-in-the-amazon-threatens-to-release-huge-stores-of-carbon-podcast-219250">Unprecedented drought in the Amazon threatens to release huge stores of carbon – podcast</a>
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<h2>Water cycle changes fuel intense storms</h2>
<p>A change in circulation and sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean to El Niño conditions influenced the global water cycle in 2023. But this happened against a backdrop of increasing sea surface temperatures due to global warming.</p>
<p>Rising sea surface and air temperatures have been intensifying the strength and rainfall intensity of monsoons, cyclones and other storm systems.</p>
<p>We saw this happen close to home. <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">Cyclone Jasper</a> battered northern Queensland and severe storms formed in south-east Queensland, leaving a trail of destruction. The cyclone moved much slower than expected, causing torrential rains and widespread flooding. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">North Queensland's record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what's to come under climate change</a>
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<p>In 2023, we also saw other cyclones behave in unexpected and deadly ways. A cyclone <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-cyclones-thunderstorms-is-climate-change-to-blame-for-new-zealands-summer-of-extreme-weather-201161">travelled across to New Zealand</a>. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-freddy-was-the-most-energetic-storm-on-record-is-it-a-harbinger-of-things-to-come-201771">longest-lived cyclone ever recorded</a> battered south-eastern Africa for weeks. And a cyclone <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-the-freak-medicane-storm-that-devastated-libya-a-glimpse-of-north-africas-future-213680">developed in the Mediterranean Sea</a>, crossing from Greece to destroy reservoir dams in Libya, killing thousands. </p>
<p>The estimated global damage from cyclones in 2023 surpassed <a href="https://www.globalwater.online/">US$45 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Warmer sea temperatures fuel such freak events. As the climate crisis deepens, we can expect more unprecedented storms.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-freddy-was-the-most-energetic-storm-on-record-is-it-a-harbinger-of-things-to-come-201771">Cyclone Freddy was the most energetic storm on record. Is it a harbinger of things to come?</a>
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<h2>Outlook: 2024 and beyond</h2>
<p>At the start of 2024, the greatest risk of developing or intensifying drought appears in Central and South America (except southern Brazil and Uruguay), southern Africa and western Australia. </p>
<p>Regions that received much rainfall towards the end of 2023 are unlikely to develop drought for at least several months. These include the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa, northern Europe, India, China and South-East Asia.</p>
<p>The events of 2023 show how the threat of ongoing climate change to our planet and lives is growing by the year. There were many such events in 2023, and the human and economic toll was large. These events should not be viewed as isolated incidents but as part of a broader emerging pattern. </p>
<p>Globally, the frequency and intensity of rainfall events and flooding are increasing. At the same time, there are also more and faster developing droughts, or flash droughts, that can cause crop failure and destructive wildfires within weeks or months. With the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/food-systems/understanding/triple-challenge/">global food challenge</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/06/the-biodiversity-crisis-in-numbers-a-visual-guide-aoe">biodiversity crisis</a> and an extremely urgent need to reduce carbon emissions, these droughts and fires are among our greatest global threats.</p>
<p>Overall, 2023 provided a stark reminder of the consequences of our continued reliance on fossil fuels and the urgent need but apparent inability of humanity to act decisively to cut greenhouse gas emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Albert Van Dijk receives or has previously received funding from several government-funded agencies, grant schemes and programmes.</span></em></p>The impacts of record heat on the global water cycle were severe and wide-ranging – and the trend will continue in 2024.Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166442023-12-21T04:39:12Z2023-12-21T04:39:12ZWhen disaster strikes, emergency responders can’t respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves<p>As record-breaking floods in North Queensland ease and water levels recede, the focus now turns to the mop-up and recovery. Residents have been <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgkfqttxNqk">supporting</a> each other through the flood crisis, such as processing donated goods, conducting welfare checks on neighbours and helping each other clean up homes.</p>
<p>Such community resilience in disasters is vital. <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government/projects-and-initiatives/floodinquiry">Successive</a> <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/natural-disasters">inquiries</a> have shown we can’t rely solely on emergency services in large disasters. Crews can’t get to every community straight away, or provide support to every household that needs assistance.</p>
<p>Our research shows how communities can be supported to respond in a crisis – during the event, in the immediate aftermath and beyond.</p>
<p>As climate change worsens, extreme weather events are the new norm. Local community building and preparedness is now more important than ever.</p>
<h2>Building disaster resilience</h2>
<p>Volunteer numbers are <a href="https://www.volunteeringaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/VRP_The-Decline-of-Formal-Volunteering-in-Australia-2001%E2%80%932020-Insights-from-the-HILDA-Survey.pdf">declining nationally</a>. However, when disaster strikes, people show a willingness to step forward and help their communities.</p>
<p>We have researched <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-environment-institute/news/2023/08/02/communities-self-organising-for-climate-disasters.html">community-led responses</a> to disasters in three locations in New South Wales – the Northern Rivers, Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury regions. We examined how community networks organised themselves during the response and recovery phases of the Black Summer bushfires (2019-20) and major floods (2020-22). </p>
<p>We found people leapt into action and helped one another: relaying early warning messages, distributing food when roads were cut and then cleaning up afterwards. They also provided emotional support when the going got tough. This included listening to and supporting flood-affected people who wanted to tell their story and start processing what had happened. Community members also supported elderly people when their at-home support services were cut off for extended periods. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-environment-institute/news/2023/05/01/building-resilience-to-the-mental-health-impacts-of-climate-chan.html">separate research</a> in rural communities affected by drought, fire and flood, we found community-led collective action and planning can foster feelings of belonging and social connection. It can also help communities prepare for the broader consequences of climate change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">North Queensland's record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what's to come under climate change</a>
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<h2>Community resilience in action</h2>
<p>Many community-led resilience initiatives have emerged in the Northern Rivers region in the wake of successive disasters. They include <a href="https://www.floodhelpnr.com.au/">Resilient Lismore</a>, <a href="https://resilientuki.org/">Resilient Uki</a>, <a href="https://www.wardellcore.community/">Wardell CORE</a>, <a href="https://togetherpottsville.org/">Together Pottsville</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/431100262102216">South Golden Beach Community Resilience Team</a>, and <a href="https://www.madr.org.au/#:%7E:text=Main%20Arm%20Disaster%20Recovery%20Inc.%20is%20a%20community%2Drun%20organisation,to%20keep%20the%20community%20safe.">Main Arm Disaster Recovery</a>. </p>
<p>Examples of the activities flowing from these initiatives include:</p>
<ul>
<li>homegrown produce swaps</li>
<li>community gatherings (such as festivals, barbeques and bushfire awareness talks)</li>
<li>creating or joining formal local community groups</li>
<li>creating community resilience plans</li>
<li>bush regeneration projects</li>
<li>improving emergency communications </li>
<li>creating animal welfare plans for disasters. </li>
</ul>
<p>One <a href="https://www.ccrnetwork.org/">community program in Northern NSW</a> was run by community organisation <a href="https://www.planc.org.au">Plan C</a>. The lead author of this article, Rebecca McNaught, is a board member and former consultant to the organisation and co-author Jean Renouf is the founder and chief executive. The program trained and supported more than 270 Northern Rivers residents across six local government areas. Most (80%) of these people were affected by floods in 2022 through loss of property or incomes, and 30% were directly threatened by bushfires in 2019-20.</p>
<p>The program covered the technical aspects of preparing for disasters, such as learning about the roles of fire, police and state emergency services. It also trained participants in disaster risks associated with bushfire, flood, tsunami and landslips.</p>
<p>Disasters can <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/13/6285">take a toll on mental health</a>. Training people in how to look after themselves and each other in challenging times is important. The program teaches participants about the benefit of sharing stories about individual experiences, and guides participants in how to provide emotional support to someone who has experienced trauma. The program also covers concepts such as active listening, compassionate communication skills and self-care for both the helper and the person receiving support.</p>
<p>Participants are also mentored and connected to a network of community carers and responders who support each other and their communities to both recover from recent floods and fires and build resilience to future disasters.</p>
<p>The connection of community leaders across the Northern Rivers is essential. Through Whatsapp groups, leaders can express solidarity, share skills and resources, and support each other to work through the governance issues involving community organisations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-can-floods-like-those-in-the-northern-rivers-come-in-clusters-180250">Why can floods like those in the Northern Rivers come in clusters?</a>
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<h2>The benefits are clear</h2>
<p>Communities are important actors in preparing for and recovering from disaster, and should be supported to do this job well. And more robust research into community resilience programs is needed, to better understand what is working, who benefits and why.</p>
<p>Support for this work must come now, before the next disaster, so communities can pull together to withstand the challenges ahead. </p>
<p><em>The authors wish to acknowledge Emma Pittaway and Dr Johanna Nalau for their contributions to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca McNaught is a Research Fellow at the University Centre for Rural Health (University of Sydney) in Lismore. She has received scholarship funding from the Australian Government's Research Training Program Stipend. She is affiliated with the South Golden Beach, New Brighton and Ocean Shores Community Resilience Team. She has also conducted paid and voluntary work for the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Howard has received funding from Resilience NSW and the new NSW Reconstruction Authority, Infrastructure NSW.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean S. Renouf is a lecturer at Southern Cross University and the CEO of the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C, which builds community resilience in the Northern Rivers of NSW. Plan C receives funding from Commonwealth and NSW government grants.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Longman has received funding from the NSW Dept of Planning, Industry and Environment and the NSW Reconstruction Authority. </span></em></p>The North Queensland floods remind us of the need to build community resilience to disasters – during the event, in the immediate aftermath and beyond.Rebecca McNaught, Research Fellow, University of SydneyAmanda Howard, Associate Professor, University of SydneyJean S. Renouf, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Southern Cross UniversityJo Longman, Senior Research Fellow, The University Centre for Rural Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155302023-12-20T19:07:17Z2023-12-20T19:07:17ZInvasive grasses are worsening bushfires across Australia’s drylands<p>As the semi-arid <a href="https://explorenarrabriregion.com.au/narrabri-directory/pilliga-forest/">Pilliga Scrub</a> burns in New South Wales, many of us are thinking about fire once again. It’s an El Niño summer in the hottest year on record. And there’s a remarkable amount of grass drying out and ready to burn. </p>
<p>Over the past few years, more rain than usual has fallen over vast regions of Australia’s rangelands, the arid and semi-arid regions that account for most of our land mass.</p>
<p>These rains have triggered an enormous boom in native grasses. But it’s also boom time for introduced species such as buffel grass (<em>Cenchrus ciliaris</em>) in the deserts, and Gamba grass (<em>Andropogon Gayanus</em>) in the savannas. These fast-growing grasses have outcompeted native grasses in many areas. </p>
<p>As they dry out, they become fuel for grass fires. Fuel loads have become extreme, especially in areas where invasive grasses are abundant. Already this fire season, enormous tracts of rangelands have burned, covering an area the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/ng-interactive/2023/nov/15/bushfires-in-australias-north-this-year-have-burned-an-area-larger-than-the-size-of-spain">size of Spain</a>. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/">bushfire-mapping site</a> has captured the rangeland fire season so far. Fast-moving grassfires <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/grass-fires-rage-as-sas-extreme-heat-sets-in/news-story/2d783aeb4b6c1cbe9c1c69519bb90966">recently hit</a> South Australia. These grassfires can have fronts hundreds of kilometres wide. Yet this is only the beginning of the summer fire season. </p>
<h2>Arid lands and buffel grass</h2>
<p>When we think of fire in Australia, we often think of bushfires raging through a forest. But grassfires are very common once you leave the coast. </p>
<p>In Australia’s northern savannas, research has shown the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2023.2239758">direct link</a> between fires, dried grass fuel at the end of the dry season in October, and how much rain fell over the year. Put simply, more rain leads to more grass, which usually leads to more fire. </p>
<p>These past few La Niña years have dumped enough rain to trigger major grass growth in the deserts – producing enough fuel to carry very widespread fire. </p>
<p>Buffel grass has made the problem far worse. This tussock grass native to parts of Africa and Asia was introduced for pasture, as it grows fast, roots deeply, spreads easily and needs less rain than other grasses. But these traits have now made it the biggest risk to biodiversity in arid Australia. Buffel has been a declared weed in South Australia since 2015, and the Northern Territory <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-31/nt-buffel-grass-working-group-central-australia/102164504">is considering</a> whether to follow suit. </p>
<p>Management burns are needed to reduce the hazard but are increasingly difficult to implement. Buffel grass grows right up to trees and regrows quickly, promoting hotter and more frequent fires. Fire encourages buffel to regrow, which creates a grass-fire cycle. Native plants and fauna can’t adapt to this. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-buffel-kerfuffle-how-one-species-quietly-destroys-native-wildlife-and-cultural-sites-in-arid-australia-149456">The buffel kerfuffle: how one species quietly destroys native wildlife and cultural sites in arid Australia</a>
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<p>Buffel also grows more evenly across a landscape, rather than in patches like many natives. At a fine scale, this means fire damage is worse, with more trees and shrubs killed. At a broader scale, areas invaded by buffel grass create links between flammable native plant communities previously separated by open patches.</p>
<p>The result? Fires can spread across larger tracts of land from a single ignition point, <a href="https://fireecology.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s42408-021-00121-4">as we saw</a> in Tjoritja National Park (West MacDonnell) in 2019.</p>
<p>Because fires spread so easily, management burns become much more risky and also more damaging to native shrubs and trees – <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/aec.12039">even in winter</a>. That’s a problem, because we need these burns to reduce fuel loads. More intense and wide-ranging fires are likely to injure or kill more native animals, both directly and from the loss of shelter and food after the fire.</p>
<p>Fires can start from lightning – or from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-23/mount-isa-spinifex-fires-amid-record-heat/103002454">simply driving through</a> long, dry grass. Historical weather and fire information indicates central Australia is in for a long hot summer. </p>
<p>How much fire might we see? In 2011, a year when we saw similar fuel loads, about 45% of arid and semi-arid lands had burned by the end of the summer. </p>
<h2>Gamba grass on the savanna</h2>
<p>In northern Australia’s tropical savannas, there’s a similar problem: fast-growing Gamba grass. This African tussock grass can grow up to four metres high. It’s invading new areas rapidly – government surveys show it increased from about 1,500 sites to more than 9,000 sites in six years in the Greater Darwin Region.</p>
<p>When Gamba dries out, the fuel loads it creates are <a href="https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/48784189/The_impacts_of_Andropogon_gayanus_gamba20160912-15138-d6tjy0-libre.pdf?1473724225=&response-content-disposition=inline%3B+filename%3DThe_impacts_of_Andropogon_gayanus_gamba.pdf&Expires=1700290794&Signature=OGCR8-I6Oeh3s9fanfsC2E0tsoc9oRmY2v6yqQ0HSnEQdOwr0b%7EviJ9fr0Hg7Pu6cyanNcfwbcEFUfd%7ET-DGiTYGb0VKaRrvlhZe08%7EsnuFr0S1eNh8QgddZ4ckMg03xfXSs2WzYjteubn5sxaxgAKdyNroNEr0DV3vjqi2lCqfxybTXVaM76Wk6c-IPyTfXzHiLRfPsKxSNNGOOLJI8Q-wjv2NQ4mFKUScyQmEP9ysF2sO1NAo5AHG7aA35vA93yfm5g52MrykmmedY1doOEV1Ob27uvHhJF3pqoYM70evNIdvV4xgxJn-p0oFAGhrb8hDSbkY49pX201FK9zLvCA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA">many times greater</a> than native grasses. Gamba is now widespread throughout the greater Darwin rural area, including large areas of Litchfield National Park.</p>
<p>When Gamba grass burns, the fire runs so hot it can kill tall trees and devastate biodiversity. It’s also more dangerous for firefighters. The high fuel loads produce <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-022-01745-9">very high greenhouse gas emissions</a> and harmful pollutants such as particulate matter. </p>
<p>Unlike Buffel, Gamba is a declared weed in the NT. The territory government is putting in <a href="https://depws.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/1287799/gamba-grass-annual-report-2023.pdf">considerable effort</a> to reduce the damage it does through prescribed burning and requiring property owners to control Gamba.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, these control efforts have a cost. Days with very high levels of air pollution in Darwin are increasing each year, caused by the burning of Gamba to reduce fuel load and the chance of big fires later in the dry season. Polluted air is damaging <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-022-01745-9">human health</a>.</p>
<p>To combat this, we need to use weather forecasting to advise volunteer firefighters (who do most of the prescribed burns) of the best time to burn.</p>
<p>As the heat of summer continues, we can expect to see more extensive grassfires in central and northern Australia. Highly flammable invasive grasses will make them worse still. We cannot ignore the changes they are making to central and northern fire regimes. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-summer-bushfires-you-didnt-hear-about-and-the-invasive-species-fuelling-them-112619">The summer bushfires you didn't hear about, and the invasive species fuelling them</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215530/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Edwards receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Charles Darwin University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine Schlesinger receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ellen Ryan-Colton has received funding from the Ecological Society of Australia (Holsworth wildlife research endowment, and Jill Landsberg Trust), Ten Deserts Project and Alinytjara Wilurara Landscape Board. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Jacklyn receives funding from the Clean Energy Regulator and National Emergency Management Agency. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Barber does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Grassfires are normal in central and northern Australia. But fast-growing invasive grasses are supercharging grassfires – and this summer looks like it will be big.Andrew Edwards, Research Fellow Bushfires, Charles Darwin UniversityChristine Schlesinger, Associate Professor in Environmental Science, Charles Darwin UniversityEllen Ryan-Colton, PhD candidate, Charles Darwin UniversityGreg Barber, PhD student, Charles Darwin UniversityPeter Jacklyn, NAFI Service Manager and Knowledge and Adoption Coordinator, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166432023-11-13T19:46:13Z2023-11-13T19:46:13ZFire is consuming more than ever of the world’s forests, threatening supplies of wood and paper<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558977/original/file-20231112-27-mgtyva.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C11%2C3843%2C2573&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Lindenmayer</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A third of the world’s forests are cut for timber. This generates <a href="https://doi.org/10.4060/cb9360en">US$1.5 trillion annually</a>. But
wildfire threatens industries such as timber milling and paper manufacturing, and the threat is far greater than most people realise.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01323-y">Our research</a>, published today in the journal Nature Geoscience, shows that between 2001 and 2021, severe wildfires worldwide destroyed timber-producing forests equivalent to an area the size of Great Britain. Severe fires reach the tree tops and consume the forest canopy.</p>
<p>The amount of timber-producing forest burning each year in severe wildfires has increased significantly in the past decade. The western United States, Canada, Siberia, Brazil and Australia have been most affected.</p>
<p>Timber demand is expected to almost triple by 2050. Supplying demand is clearly going to be challenging. Our research highlights the need to urgently adopt new management strategies and emerging technologies to combat the increasing threat of wildfires.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-planet-is-burning-in-unexpected-ways-heres-how-we-can-protect-people-and-nature-213215">Our planet is burning in unexpected ways - here’s how we can protect people and nature</a>
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<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>We combined global maps of logging activity and severe wildfires to determine how much timber-producing forest was lost to wildfire this century. Between 2001 and 2021, up to 25 million hectares of timber-producing forest was severely burned. The extent of fire has jumped markedly in the past decade, from an average of less than one million hectares a year up to 2015 to triple that since then. </p>
<p>At a national scale, the three countries with the largest absolute wildfire-induced losses of timber-producing forest were Russia, the US and Canada. When it comes to proportion of their forestry land lost, the nations with the highest percentages burnt were Portugal, followed by Australia. </p>
<h2>Why are more forests burning?</h2>
<p>Climate change is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27225-40">major driver of fire weather and fire behaviour</a>. The increased risk of high-severity wildfire is an entirely expected outcome of warmer temperatures and, in some places, reduced rainfall. </p>
<p>However, it remains unclear why so much wood-production forest is being lost, and why the increase in burnt area has been so marked in the past decade. </p>
<p>One possible reason is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12122">logging makes forests more flammable</a>. This has been documented in parts of southeastern Australia, where intact forest always <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01717-y">burnt at lower severity than harvested forest</a> across the entire footprint of the Black Summer fires. Forests that have been subject to thinning also are <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/aec.13096">at risk of high-severity wildfire</a>. </p>
<h2>What does this mean for us?</h2>
<p>Whatever the reason, it is clear these fires in wood-production forests will have profound impacts on global timber supplies and all the industries associated with them. This is a huge problem for society and the environment, because timber demand is expected to triple by 2050, in part to facilitate the transition away from carbon-intensive cement in construction. </p>
<p>In many parts of the world, it typically takes 80–100 years or even longer to grow a tree to a size at which it can be a sawlog for products like furniture and floorboards. So the increased frequency of high-severity wildfire means fewer areas of forest <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20129">will escape fire for long enough</a> to reach timber harvesting age. </p>
<p>This is especially problematic where logging makes forests more prone to burning in a high-severity wildfire.</p>
<p>Furthermore, given the long-term nature of timber production, typically on cutting cycles ranging from 40 years to more than a century, future timber crops will face a very different climate as they mature. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo of a timber production forest that has been burnt" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Timber production forests such as this, near Marysville in Victoria, are burning before they reach maturity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Lindenmayer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-tasmania-and-victoria-dominate-the-list-of-australias-largest-trees-and-why-these-majestic-giants-are-under-threat-200276">Why Tasmania and Victoria dominate the list of Australia's largest trees – and why these majestic giants are under threat</a>
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<h2>Responding to the challenge</h2>
<p>If wood production from forests becomes increasing costly and timber is increasingly hard to source, there may be more pressure from industry and government to log other places, such as tropical forests, with high biodiversity and conservation value. </p>
<p>One way to tackle the problem is to grow more timber in plantations. Plantations already produce <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378112722006351">a third of the main forms of wood-producing timber</a> – called industrial roundwood. They do this from just 3% of the area of natural forests. </p>
<p>Well managed plantations can grow a successful timber crop within a couple of decades. This is a lot shorter than the many decades and sometimes even centuries required to grow sawlogs in native forests. Having a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120641">shorter growing time in plantations</a> increases the chances of harvesting trees before they are destroyed in a wildfire. </p>
<p>But plantations, like some logged and regenerated native forests, can be highly flammable. Fire risks need to be carefully managed. That includes planning, to avoid putting neighbouring areas and human communities at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120641">greater risk of being burnt</a>. </p>
<p>Another key strategy to better protect timber resources will be to adopt new technologies to more quickly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade4721">detect and then rapidly suppress ignitions</a> such as those originating from lightning strikes. </p>
<p>Big fires start as small fires. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.5849/forsci.10-096">best time to suppress fires is when they are small</a>, and as soon as ignition occurs. We have been involved in the development of drone fleets and unmanned aerial water and fire suppressant dispensing craft to more quickly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade4721">detect and extinguish wildfires</a>. </p>
<p>New technologies, as well as more, better planned and managed plantations will be crucial in not only protecting forests, but also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade4721">safeguarding the flow of marketable timber</a> and the industries dependent upon them. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-climate-change-is-bringing-bushfires-more-often-but-some-ecosystems-in-australia-are-suffering-the-most-211683">Yes, climate change is bringing bushfires more often. But some ecosystems in Australia are suffering the most</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Government and the Victorian Government. He is a Councillor in the Biodiversity Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Bousfield received funding for this research from the Natural Environment Research Council, UK.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Edwards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Satellite data shows wildfires are destroying large areas of timber-producing forests around the world. These fires are becoming more destructive with each passing year.David Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityChris Bousfield, Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of CambridgeDavid Edwards, Professor, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2167322023-11-01T04:25:39Z2023-11-01T04:25:39ZQueensland’s fires are not easing at night. That’s a bad sign for the summer ahead<p>This week, dozens of fires have burned across Queensland. More homes have burned in the state than during the 2019–2020 Black Summer – <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-01/queensland-nsw-bushfires-live-updates-weather-bom/102872736">57 so far this year</a>, compared to 49. </p>
<p>The question many are asking is – are these fires normal? Our analysis shows these fires are weird in at least two ways.</p>
<p>First, many more than usual are burning through the night. This is anomalous, as nighttime usually brings lower temperatures and more moisture in the air, slowing or quelling fires. Queensland’s south-east and Western Downs regions are seeing more than five times more nighttime hotspots than average. And second, these fires are early in the season – especially the nighttime fires. </p>
<p>Why? Much of the east coast is now exceptionally dry. The plant regrowth from La Niña rains has dried out and is, in many places, set to burn. It’s still spring, with a long summer ahead. Where there has been rain, such as in eastern Victoria, it has sometimes coincided with intense bushfire. That gave rise to the extremely unusual situation in early October where residents <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/06/bushfires-floods-australia-compound-events-gippsland">grappled with fire one day and flood the next</a>. </p>
<p>Put together, it suggests we may be facing a very bad fire season on the east coast and Tasmania. This is, of course, happening against the drumbeat of global warming, and the extra spike in heating this year caused by El Niño. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="rainfall map of Australia Sept Oct 2023, showing red rainfall deficits almost everywhere" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557033/original/file-20231101-23-6cjg1p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rainfall across Australia this spring has been very low almost everywhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s happening in Queensland?</h2>
<p>This spring has been exceptionally dry across most of the Sunshine State. September and October rainfall in the state’s heavily populated south has been close to the lowest on record and certainly in the bottom 10% of years. </p>
<p>This, in turn, has made many areas ready to burn. While there are fires up and down Queensland, most house losses have been within a few hundred kilometres of Brisbane. The town of Tara and surrounding areas has been worst affected. </p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/15569942/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:700px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/15569942/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/15569942" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"></a></div>
<p>How do we know where the fires are? Four times a day, heat-sensing satellites pass over Australia and pinpoint hotspots, where temperatures suddenly jump compared to areas nearby, based on square kilometre tiles. These tell us where the fires are, almost in real time and let us track them as they grow. </p>
<p>To this region, October has brought the third highest number of daytime hotspots seen this century. But it’s the nighttime hotspots that are freakish. Five times more nighttime hotspots than average have been detected compared to previous Octobers. </p>
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<p><iframe id="pE6jD" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pE6jD/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>Why is that so concerning? Think of it from the firefighters’ point of view. If you know that fires usually ease off at night, you can plan around this reprieve – or even get some rest. But this belief will have to change as the nighttime barrier to fire <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04325-1">weakens around the world</a>. </p>
<p>Climate change <a href="https://theconversation.com/faster-disaster-climate-change-fuels-flash-droughts-intense-downpours-and-storms-213242">can speed up how fast droughts happen</a>, in what’s been dubbed “flash drought”. It was not so long ago that Australia’s east coast was seemingly underwater, with record-breaking floods. Now drought is back with a vengeance. </p>
<p>Is south-east Queensland seeing more fire than usual? On the whole, yes. And it’s early – one of the earliest seasons since satellite records began in 2001. </p>
<p>So far, most of the serious fires in this area are burning not through grasslands, as is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/pm/central-australian-fires-burn-across-twice-the-size-of-tasmania-/103028462">happening in Central Australia</a>, but through open forest and woodlands. </p>
<p>Could we see rainforests in Queensland burn, as we did during the Black Summer? It’s possible, but less likely. But we could see some areas which burned during Black Summer along the east coast burn again, though probably not to the same severity. </p>
<p>There’s certainly enough fuel for some areas on the east coast burned by the 2019–20 bushfires to re-burn, such as New South Wales’ coast and the fringes of the Blue Mountains. That would have serious ecological consequences for areas still in recovery if fires returned before seedlings matured. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-flash-drought-an-earth-scientist-explains-194141">What is a flash drought? An earth scientist explains</a>
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<h2>Fire scientists are flying blind</h2>
<p>For decades, we’ve known that parts of Australia – the world’s most fire prone continent – would be likely to see more intense and more damaging fires as climate change adds heat and takes away moisture in many regions. </p>
<p>One problem is that we and other professional fire scientists are forced to read the tea leaves from media reports to gauge what’s happening on the ground. </p>
<p>Data on fire progression, fuels and weather are often walled away in government agencies. Firefighters have access, but they are – rightly – focused on the immediate crisis at hand. And insurers have their own data sets on trends in property loss but they are commercially sensitive. </p>
<p>Because there’s no systematic and accessible way to publicise fire data, we end up with a lot of speculation in the media about whether this is a normal or abnormal fire season. </p>
<p>This could be easily fixed with <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/4/160">more investment and coordination</a>. Data from geostationary satellites have revolutionised fire spotting, shifting from six-hourly updates to every ten minutes. </p>
<p>These data and historic data, could and should be made easily available to non-specialists, ideally through either the Bureau of Meteorology or a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02306-4">new agency</a>. </p>
<p>Researchers have a role to play in developing tools to help put this flood of data to use. </p>
<p>If we have better public data sets, we can also more quickly shut down talking points from climate deniers, who might claim “there’s nothing new – Queensland has always burned” or use <a href="https://climatefactchecks.org/bjorn-lomborg-posts-misleading-claim-about-forest-fires-using-data-shown-in-isolation">selective statistics</a> to claim the number of dangerous forest fires on Earth is declining. We can’t adapt as a society if we’re arguing whether the fires really are happening or really are this bad. </p>
<p>If we don’t start to adapt to new fire regimes – and fast – we will face a very real crisis. We could soon see insurers stop offering insurance, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/31/climate/climate-change-insurance-wildfires-california.html">some have in California</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">'Australia is sleepwalking': a bushfire scientist explains what the Hawaii tragedy means for our flammable continent</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216732/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Calum Cunningham receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and NSW Department of Planning and Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Williamson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and NSW Department of Planning and Environment. </span></em></p>Normally, many bushfires ease overnight, as temperatures fall and moisture in the air rises. But these are not normal times, as Queensland’s early-season fires are showingCalum Cunningham, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of TasmaniaDavid Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaGrant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140652023-10-26T01:12:15Z2023-10-26T01:12:15Z3 ways to prepare for bushfire season if you have asthma or another lung condition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555707/original/file-20231025-25-7t7ylm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C994%2C666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sunlight-shining-through-smoke-haze-coloring-1605818323">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s bushfire season is officially <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/fire-season-commences">under way</a> during an <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-the-return-of-el-nino-means/">El Niño</a>. And after three wet years, and the <a href="https://www.afac.com.au/auxiliary/publications/newsletter/article/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-spring-2023#:%7E:text=For%20spring%202023%2C%20increased%20risk,bushfire%20this%20season%20are%20widespread">plant growth</a> that comes with it, there’s fuel to burn.</p>
<p>With the prospect of <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-official-australia-is-set-for-a-hot-dry-el-nino-heres-what-that-means-for-our-flammable-continent-209126">catastrophic bushfire</a> comes smoke. This not only affects people in bushfire regions, but those <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-smoke-is-everywhere-in-our-cities-heres-exactly-what-you-are-inhaling-129772">in cities and towns</a> far away, as smoke travels. </p>
<p>People with a <a href="https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/10.1164/rccm.202012-4471LE">lung condition</a> are among those especially affected.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-mood-usually-lifts-in-spring-but-after-early-heatwaves-and-bushfires-this-year-may-be-different-213643">Our mood usually lifts in spring. But after early heatwaves and bushfires, this year may be different</a>
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<h2>What’s so dangerous about bushfire smoke?</h2>
<p>Bushfire smoke <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/air/Pages/common-air-pollutants.aspx">pollutes the air</a> we breathe by increasing the concentration of particulate matter (or PM).</p>
<p>Once inhaled, <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/air/Pages/particulate-matter.aspx">small particles</a> (especially with a diameter of 2.5 micrometres or less, known as PM2.5) can get deep into the lungs and into the bloodstream. </p>
<p>Concentration of gases in the air – such as <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/air/Pages/ozone.aspx">ozone</a>, <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/air/Pages/nitrogen-dioxide.aspx">nitrogen dioxide</a> and <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/air/Pages/sulphur-dioxide.aspx">sulfur dioxide</a> – also increase, to pollute the air.</p>
<p>All these cause the airway to <a href="https://www.alfredhealth.org.au/news/the-effects-of-bushfire-smoke-explained/">narrow and spasm</a>, making it hard to breathe. </p>
<p>This can be even worse for people with existing asthma or other respiratory conditions whose airways are already inflamed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-smoke-is-everywhere-in-our-cities-heres-exactly-what-you-are-inhaling-129772">Bushfire smoke is everywhere in our cities. Here's exactly what you are inhaling</a>
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<p>Emergency department visits and hospital admissions for asthma-related symptoms <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935119305742?dgcid=author">rise</a> <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33601224/">after exposure</a> to bushfire smoke.</p>
<p>Smoke from the bushfires in summer 2019/20 <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/system/files/issues/213_06/mja250545.pdf">resulted in</a> an estimated 400 deaths or more from any cause, more than 1,300 emergency department visits for asthma symptoms, and more than 2,000 hospital admissions for respiratory issues.</p>
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<p>Even if symptoms are not serious enough to warrant emergency medical attention, exposure to bushfire smoke <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/health/staying-healthy/environmental/after-a-disaster/bushfires/bushfire-smoke-and-your-health#:%7E:text=Signs%20of%20smoke%20irritation%20include,throat%2C%20runny%20nose%20and%20coughing">can lead to</a> cough, nasal congestion, wheezing and asthma flares.</p>
<p>If you have <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-causes-asthma-what-we-know-dont-know-and-suspect-96409">asthma</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-chronic-obstructive-pulmonary-disease-25539">chronic obstructive pulmonary disease</a>, <a href="https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/bronchiectasis#:%7E:text=Bronchiectasis%20is%20a%20condition%20that,These%20tubes%20are%20called%20airways.">bronchiectasis</a> or another lung condition, or you care for someone who has, here’s what you can do to prepare for the season ahead.</p>
<h2>1. Avoid smoke</h2>
<p>Monitor your local air quality by downloading one or both of these apps:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://asthma.org.au/what-we-do/current-projects/airsmart/">AirSmart</a> from Asthma Australia has live air-quality information to help you plan and act</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://airrater.org/">AirRater</a>, developed by Australian scientists, can be another useful app to monitor your environment, track your symptoms and help manage your health. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>During times of poor air quality and smoke stay indoors and avoid smoke exposure. Close windows and doors, and if you have one, use an air conditioner to recirculate the air. </p>
<p>Avoid unnecessary <a href="https://28bysamwood.com/blog/fitness/should-you-exercise-if-its-smoky-outside/">physical activity</a> which makes us breathe more to deliver more oxygen to the body, but also means we inhale more polluted air. Consider temporarily moving to a safer residence. </p>
<p>Well-fitting N95/P2 masks can reduce your exposure to fine smoke particles if you must travel. However they can make it more difficult to breathe if you are unwell. In that case, you may find a mask with a valve <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-protect-yourself-against-bushfire-smoke-this-summer-154720">more comfortable</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Person holding a N95/P2 respirator" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Well-fitting N95/P2 masks can help.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-australia-20200105-trojan-p2-disposable-1608222889">Daria Nipot/Shutterstock</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-protect-yourself-against-bushfire-smoke-this-summer-154720">How to protect yourself against bushfire smoke this summer</a>
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<h2>2. Have an action plan</h2>
<p>Taking your regular preventer medication ensures your lung health is optimised before the danger period. </p>
<p>Ensure you have a <a href="https://www.nationalasthma.org.au/health-professionals/asthma-action-plans">written action plan</a>. This provides you with clear instructions on how to take early actions to prevent symptoms deteriorating or to reduce the severity of flare-ups. Review this plan with your GP, share it with a family member, pin it to the fridge.</p>
<p>Make sure you have emergency medication available, know when to call for help, and what medication to take while you wait. You may consider storing an emergency “reliever puffer” in your home or with a neighbour.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-manage-your-essential-medicines-in-a-bushfire-or-other-emergency-127516">How to manage your essential medicines in a bushfire or other emergency</a>
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<h2>3. Have the right equipment</h2>
<p>High-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters <a href="https://www.phrp.com.au/issues/online-early/residential-indoor-air-quality-and-hepa-cleaner-use/">can reduce</a> smoke exposure inside the home during a fire event by 30-74%. These filters remove particulate matter from the air. </p>
<p>A spacer, which is a small chamber to contain inhaled medication, can help you take emergency medication if you are breathing quickly. You may want to have one to hand.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-face-masks-to-air-purifiers-what-actually-works-to-protect-us-from-bushfire-smoke-128633">From face masks to air purifiers: what actually works to protect us from bushfire smoke?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People with a lung condition are among those particularly vulnerable to bushfire smoke. But you can prepare for the season ahead.Kazi Mizanur Rahman, Associate Professor of Healthcare Innovations, Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Bond UniversityJoe Duncan, Clinical Associate Lecturer, Northern Clinical School and Lecturer, Internal Medicine. Rural Clinical School (Northern Rivers), University of SydneyJo Longman, Senior Research Fellow, The University Centre for Rural Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138662023-10-10T19:06:17Z2023-10-10T19:06:17ZWhy Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it<p>Australia has <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/australia-legislates-emissions-reduction-targets">a legislated target</a> to reduce greenhouse emissions, a federal government with commitments <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/the-82-per-cent-national-renewable-energy-target-where-did-it-come-from-and-how-can-we-get-there/#:%7E:text=A%20national%20renewable%20electricity%20target,Interconnected%20System%2C%20and%20the%20North">to increase the share of renewable electricity</a> and reduce power prices, and a globally important economic opportunity at its feet. </p>
<p>In the second half of the government’s current term, delivery looks hard across the board. All is not lost, but we must transform our economy to a timetable. The unprecedented scale and pace of the economic transformation, and the consequences of failure, demand an unprecedented response. </p>
<p>To get things on track requires the government to develop a plan with the right mix of political commitment, credible policies, coordination with industry, and support from communities. And, critically, the plan must be implemented. Too often targets have been set without being linked to policies to achieve them, or linked so poorly that the extra cost and delay sets back the climate transition.</p>
<p>By the middle of this year, Australia’s emissions were <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/policy-topics/measuring-what-matters/dashboard/emissions-reduction">25% below the 2005 level</a>. But the trend of steady reductions has stalled, and sectors such as <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021Fact%20sheet%20-%20Transport.pdf">transport</a> and agriculture have moved in the wrong direction. </p>
<p>Such ups and downs will continue in response to external events, as we have seen with COVID, droughts, and war on the other side of the world. Policies must be flexible if they are to remain broadly on course in the face of such events. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Trouble in the power department</h2>
<p>The detail matters: national emissions reductions <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-march-2023.pdf">have slowed</a>, as has <a href="https://www.energymatters.com.au/renewable-news/cec-australian-wind-and-solar-investment-slows-in-q2-energy-storage-booms/#:%7E:text=The%20slowdown%20in%20investment%20in,support%20from%20the%20federal%20government.">the growth in renewable generation</a> towards the government’s 2030 target of 82%. </p>
<p>At the same time, the government’s <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/powering-australia">target of lower power bills</a> by 2025 looks out of reach, and electricity reliability is threatened as coal-fired generation closes without adequate replacement.</p>
<p>The production and use of natural gas <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Flame-out-Grattan-report.pdf">contributes around 20%</a> of Australia’s emissions. The use of gas in industry will be covered by the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-Safeguard-Mechanism#:%7E:text=The%20Safeguard%20Mechanism%20has%20been%20in%20place%20since%201%20July,must%20manage%20their%20excess%20emissions.">Safeguard Mechanism</a>, a policy designed by the Coalition and now revised by Labor, to drive down emissions from the country’s 200 biggest emitters. </p>
<p>Emissions from gas-fired power generation will fall with the growth of renewables. But there are no constraints on fossil gas use in other sectors, such as our homes. </p>
<p>Industrial emissions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/nearly-30-of-australias-emissions-come-from-industry-tougher-rules-for-big-polluters-is-a-no-brainer-190264">slowly growing</a>. The huge amount of hype about green hydrogen has so far proven to be little more than that: Australia continues to have lots of potential green hydrogen projects, but <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-leads-world-in-green-hydrogen-hype-and-hope-but-not-in-actual-projects/">virtually none are delivered</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, we remain without <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/fuel-efficiency-standard-cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australia-consultation-paper-april2023.pdf">constraints on vehicle emissions</a>, and with a large herd of <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/cp/CP22299#:%7E:text=In%20Australia%2C%2071%25%20of%20agricultural,by%20grazing%20sheep%20and%20cattle.">grazing cattle and sheep</a> whose emissions are determined more by the weather than the actions of our best-meaning farmers.</p>
<h2>The risk of swinging from naive to negative</h2>
<p>So, we are in a hard place. Naïve optimism about an easy, cheap transition to net zero is at risk of giving way to brutal negativity that it’s all just too hard. The warnings of early spring fires and floods in Australia and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/17/extreme-temperatures-recorded-across-northern-hemisphere">extreme heat</a> during the most recent northern hemisphere summer will feed this tension.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>The federal government’s latest <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2023-intergenerational-report">Intergenerational</a> Report provides a deeply disturbing snapshot of the potential economic impacts if we fail to get climate change under control. Yet in a world 3 to 4 degrees hotter than pre-industrial levels, economic impacts could be the least of our worries.</p>
<p>The task is unparalleled outside wartime. Within 30 years we must manage the decline of fossil fuel extractive sectors, transform every aspect of our energy and transport sectors, reindustrialise much of manufacturing, and find solutions to difficult problems in agriculture.</p>
<p>What’s to be done?</p>
<h2>The need for a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee</h2>
<p>We should begin with leadership across the federal government, coordinated with the states and territories. The best structure might be a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee with two clear objectives – to develop and begin implementing a national net zero transformation plan by the end of 2024. </p>
<p>Modern governments are more than happy to set targets and announce plans to meet them. They seem to have lost the capacity or will to implement such plans. The <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/net-zero-economy-agency#:%7E:text=The%20Net%20Zero%20Economy%20Agency,of%20the%20net%20zero%20economy.">Net Zero Economy Agency</a>, created in July and chaired by former Climate Change Minister Greg Combet, could be charged with that task.</p>
<p>The first step is being taken – the <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/">Climate Change Authority</a> is now advising on emissions reduction targets for 2035 and perhaps beyond. The government’s work to create pathways to reducing emissions in every economic sector must be used to build a comprehensive set of policies that are directly linked to meeting the targets.</p>
<h2>How to get electricity moving in the right direction</h2>
<p>The electricity sector can be put on track with three actions. One, drive emissions reduction towards net zero using a sector-focused policy such as the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target">Renewable Energy Target</a> or the Safeguard Mechanism. </p>
<p>Two, implement the <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-supply/capacity-investment-scheme">Capacity Investment Scheme</a>, a policy intended to deliver dispatchable electricity capacity to balance a system built on intermittent wind and solar supply. </p>
<p>Three, set up a National Transmission Agency to work with the <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en">Australian Energy Market Operator</a> (AEMO) to plan the national transmission grid and with authority to direct, fund, and possibly own that grid.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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<p>For heavy industry, the scale and pace of change demands a 21st-century industry policy, in three parts. Activities such as coal mining will be essentially incompatible with a net-zero economy. Activities such as steel-making may be able to transform through economic, low-emissions technologies. </p>
<p>Finally, activities such as low-emissions extraction and processing of critical energy minerals, which are insignificant today but which in time could help Australia to capitalise on globally significant comparative advantages. </p>
<h2>Create a plan – and stick to it</h2>
<p>The government has made a good start by revising the Safeguard Mechanism and the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">Hydrogen Strategy</a> and developing a <a href="https://www.globalaustralia.gov.au/industries/net-zero/critical-minerals#:%7E:text=Australia's%20Critical%20Mineral%20Strategy%202023,raw%20and%20processed%20critical%20minerals.">Critical Minerals Strategy</a>. These should be brought together in an overarching policy framework with consistent, targeted policies linked to clear goals, developed and executed in sustained collaboration with industry. </p>
<p>The Safeguard Mechanism will need to be extended beyond 2030 and its emissions threshold for the companies it covers lowered to 25,000 tonnes of emissions per year.</p>
<p>Industry funding will probably need to expand, and give priority to export-oriented industries that will grow in a net-zero global economy. And the federal and state governments should phase out all programs that encourage expansion of fossil fuel extraction or consumption.</p>
<p>In transport, long-delayed emissions standards should be set and implemented. Finally, government-funded research, some of it already underway, should focus on difficult areas such as early-stage emissions reduction technologies in specific heavy industries, transport subsectors, and emissions from grazing cattle and sheep.</p>
<p>There is little new or radical in the elements of this plan. What would be new is a commitment to its design and implementation. This is what government needs to do now. The consequences of failure are beyond our worst fears, the benefits of success beyond our best dreams.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have a financial interest in companies relevant to the article through his superannuation fund. </span></em></p>Australia’s move towards net zero emissoions by 2020 is in danger of stalling. If it is not to fail, the nation urgently needs a government plan, aligned with industry and with public support.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126512023-10-03T12:10:37Z2023-10-03T12:10:37ZEven platypuses aren’t safe from bushfires – a new DNA study tracks their disappearance<p>When the Black Summer bushfires swept across eastern Australia in 2019–20, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/geb.13473">thousands of animal species lived</a> in the path of these megafires. </p>
<p>You’d be forgiven for thinking water-dwelling animals like platypuses were spared. Surely animals living in rivers and streams would be safe?</p>
<p>But our new research, published today in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110219">Biological Conservation</a>, reveals platypuses are disappearing from waterways after fire.</p>
<p>We took water samples from streams and rivers across south-eastern Australia to test for platypus DNA. We found platypuses were less likely to be found in burnt catchment areas, six months after fire. But the species returned after 18 months. We hope our findings will support conservation actions in the event of future bushfires.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-platypus-can-glow-green-and-hunt-prey-with-electricity-but-it-cant-climb-dams-to-find-a-mate-193707">A platypus can glow green and hunt prey with electricity – but it can't climb dams to find a mate</a>
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<h2>An evolutionary masterpiece</h2>
<p>Platypuses are much loved and unique to Australia. As monotremes, they lay eggs. They’re one of only five species of mammals that does – the other four are echidnas. </p>
<p>They have webbed feet for swimming. And they have <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/electroreception">electroreceptors</a> in their bills to help them find food in rivers and streams.</p>
<p>But they can be hard to find. It’s difficult to determine whether there’s a platypus living in a particular waterway. </p>
<p>Monitoring allows us to detect changes in populations or communities. There may be gradual changes over time, or rapid responses to a big disturbance, such as a fire. Quick, efficient methods are vital for surveying species that occupy large areas.</p>
<h2>DNA detective work</h2>
<p>Platypuses are found in waterways throughout the east coast of Australia, from Cooktown in northern Queensland to Tasmania. </p>
<p>Little is known about how platypuses and other aquatic or semi-aquatic animals respond to fire. Ideally we would have good data on species before and after a fire, to draw comparisons. But that is rare. </p>
<p>Other research shows aquatic invertebrates (animals with no backbones) and fish can be harmed by bushfire, especially when rain follows fire. </p>
<p>Bushfires burn and kill the vegetation that stabilises the soil around rivers or streams. When rain follows fire, a lot of ash, soil and other debris can be washed into waterways. The water chemistry might change or there might be big increases in sediment, which makes the river or stream inhospitable for invertebrates and fish. </p>
<p>As platypuses feed on aquatic invertebrates such as yabbies, these flow on effects of fire could also impact them. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551317/original/file-20231002-15-55pavu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A grey mud-covered platypus on the bank of a creek with foliage and sticks next to it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551317/original/file-20231002-15-55pavu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551317/original/file-20231002-15-55pavu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=792&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551317/original/file-20231002-15-55pavu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=792&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551317/original/file-20231002-15-55pavu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=792&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551317/original/file-20231002-15-55pavu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=995&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551317/original/file-20231002-15-55pavu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=995&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551317/original/file-20231002-15-55pavu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=995&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Platypus feed on invertebrates, which find debris- and sediment-filled waterways inhospitable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Just as people leave traces behind as they move through the environment (such as fingerprints, hair and skin cells), so do animals. These traces contain genetic material that can be analysed to identify the likely source. </p>
<p>We used this “environmental DNA” to detect where platypuses were present across the study area. </p>
<p>We sampled 118 rivers and creeks across Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory a year before the Black Summer fires, for a project on platypus distribution. This was fortuitous, because it provided a baseline for us to determine the effects of the unprecedented fires. </p>
<p>We took more environmental DNA samples from the same 118 sites at six months after the megafires, and also 12–18 months post-fire, giving us three data points for the same rivers and creeks. </p>
<p>The sampling sites were spread across burnt and unburnt areas, giving us unaffected (control) sites to use as a comparison. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-at-work-we-use-environmental-dna-to-monitor-how-human-activities-affect-life-in-rivers-and-streams-164529">Scientists at work: We use environmental DNA to monitor how human activities affect life in rivers and streams</a>
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<hr>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>Six months after the megafires, platypuses were less likely to be living at sites that experienced fire. But the difference between burnt and unburnt sites was negligible after 18 months. </p>
<p>The combination of severe fire and rainfall minimised the chance of finding platypuses living at a site. </p>
<p>Watersheds are areas of land that drain rainwater into local streams and creeks. We used the watershed of each site to calculate the area over which rain would drain to a site. </p>
<p>We also looked at what proportion of the watershed was burnt at high severity, as we thought this would increase the chance of destabilised soils and ash being washed into the waterways. We classified high severity fire as fire which removed all of the leaves from trees and burnt grasslands or pasture. </p>
<p>From our work, we predicted that sites where the watershed had at least 25% of its area burnt at high severity, and also experienced high rainfall, had a less than 10% chance of platypuses occupying those sites.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551318/original/file-20231002-23-nafgj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black ground with thin dead black trees, the aftermath of a fire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551318/original/file-20231002-23-nafgj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551318/original/file-20231002-23-nafgj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551318/original/file-20231002-23-nafgj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551318/original/file-20231002-23-nafgj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551318/original/file-20231002-23-nafgj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551318/original/file-20231002-23-nafgj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551318/original/file-20231002-23-nafgj6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ash and debris from bushfires can get washed into nearby waterways, affecting the water chemistry and wildlife habitat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Understanding change</h2>
<p>Climate change is predicted to lead to more <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4">frequent</a>, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13514">severe and extensive bushfires</a> in south-eastern Australia, as well as to more <a href="https://nespclimate.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/ESCC-NESP-Southern-Australia-6pp-WEB.pdf">extreme rainfall events</a>. </p>
<p>Our work adds to our understanding of how just one species could be harmed by the climate crisis. </p>
<p>We need these types of systematic surveys to provide baselines and monitor how populations and communities are changing. Monitoring will also help us respond more efficiently to major disturbances like the Black Summer bushfires, where, for many species, there wasn’t enough data to inform the initial emergency conservation response. </p>
<p><em>We would like to acknowledge Josh Griffiths, Reid Tingley and Luke Collins for their invaluable contribution to this work and Jaana Dielenberg for early discussions about this article.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-heat-and-fire-this-summer-heres-how-to-prepare-212443">Worried about heat and fire this summer? Here's how to prepare</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212651/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily McColl-Gausden receives funding from San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, The University of Melbourne and the Ecological Society of Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Weeks is a Director at EnviroDNA, a company that offers eDNA based services to industry. He receives funding from San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance and the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>We sampled 118 rivers and creeks before and after the Black Summer bushfires, searching for platypus DNA. Here’s what we found.Emily McColl-Gausden, Research fellow, The University of MelbourneAndrew Weeks, Associate Senior Research Scientist, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145772023-10-02T19:12:09Z2023-10-02T19:12:09ZFire authorities are better prepared for this summer. The question now is – are you?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551324/original/file-20231002-15-d4sb4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4281%2C2848&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last year, campers had to evacuate <a href="https://www.thegreynomads.com.au/caves-2/">because of floods</a>. This year, they’re evacuating because of fire. Over Victoria’s long weekend, campers and residents in Gippsland had to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-01/gippsland-fires-burn-briagolong-loch-sport-erica/102922014">flee fast-moving fires</a>, driven by high winds. </p>
<p>The megafires of the 2019–2020 Black Summer came off the back of an earlier El Niño climate cycle. Now, after three years of rain and floods, El Niño is arriving on Australian shores again. With it comes fire weather – hot, dry and windy. </p>
<p>The question is – <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2023/09/30/climate-change-and-the-fire-season-ahead#mtr">are we ready?</a> </p>
<p>Last week, emergency management minister Murray Watt moved to reassure an anxious country. “Australia is much better prepared for this season than we were heading into Black Summer,” he said, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-24/australia-better-prepared-for-bushfire-threat-than-black-summer/102895018">speaking after</a> a national summit on disaster preparedness. </p>
<p>Yes, authorities are better prepared. But by and large, we as individuals are not. Far too often, Australians think it’s the job of the authorities to be ready, which breeds a false sense of security. </p>
<h2>This fire season may pack a punch</h2>
<p>The Black Summer bushfires of the 2019–20 summer were a stark reminder of how fire prone Australia is. But they were more than that – they <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">were not normal</a>. Around 20% of all of our forests went up in flame. </p>
<p>2019 was the <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2019-2019-was-australias-hottest-and-driest-year-on-record/#:%7E:text=Last%20year%20was%20Australia's%20hottest,are%20the%20worst%20on%20record.">hottest and driest</a> year on record for Australia. But 2023 <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/01/australia-records-warmest-winter-caused-by-global-heating-and-sunny-conditions">may break that record</a>, as climate records topple around the world and extreme weather events multiply. This year is likely to be the hottest on record globally, and next year the record <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-the-return-of-el-nino-means/#:%7E:text=Looking%20ahead%20%E2%80%93%20with%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o,above%20the%20pre%2Dindustrial%20average">may well fall again</a>. </p>
<p>Sustained rain from three successive La Niña years has driven widespread vegetation growth across Australia’s 125 million hectares of forest, bush and grasslands. Over the coming weeks, many areas could dry out quickly and become tinder for bushfires. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-heat-and-fire-this-summer-heres-how-to-prepare-212443">Worried about heat and fire this summer? Here's how to prepare</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Climate cycles do give us time to prepare</h2>
<p>Australia’s wet-dry climate cycles have one benefit – during wet years, fire authorities get a reprieve. That lets governments, emergency services and the community <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-22/bushfire-royal-commission-revisited-after-el-nino-weather/102880144">coordinate, plan and prepare</a> for bushfire seasons ahead. </p>
<p>That’s why Minister Watt can accurately claim Australia is better prepared. The capacity and capability of our emergency services to predict the spread of fires and issue timely warnings to communities is better than it has ever been. In planning and preparedness for natural hazards such as bushfires and floods, we have seen <a href="https://nema.gov.au/about-us/media-centre/Preparedness-Summit-250923">better integration</a> between government, emergency services, civil and private sector organisations.</p>
<p>Planned burning is still a challenge. It’s tough to find the right weather conditions to burn off fuel loads at low intensity, without risking the blaze spreading or threatening property. </p>
<p>But these burns are done much more <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-searching-for-objectivity-in-burning/">strategically these days</a>. Rather than simply aim to hit a target of hectares burned, authorities are now focused on burning fuel in areas where it could endanger lives and damage critical infrastructure during bushfire season.</p>
<p>These advances give us good reason for confidence. But not for complacency. </p>
<p>Every bushfire is unique. And our fires are, by and large, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4">getting worse</a>. It would be an error to think our investment in <a href="https://reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/fighting-fires-from-space-how-satellites-and-other-tech-could-prevent-catastrophic-bushfires">smoke-detecting algorithms and satellite monitoring</a> and the development of the new <a href="https://afdrs.com.au/">Australian Fire Danger Rating System</a> will spare Australia from the loss of life, property and environmental destruction observed during the Black Summer fires. </p>
<p>Why? Decades of bushfires have shown even the best preparation can be found wanting on days of severe bushfire danger when firestorms can develop quickly and behave unpredictably.</p>
<h2>For Australia to be ready, you need to be ready</h2>
<p>While megafires happen – and draw the most headlines – most bushfires are local rather than national events. </p>
<p>That means we must prepare at a local level.</p>
<p>If you’re faced with a bushfire threat, you have only <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8500.12592">two options</a>. </p>
<p>You can stay and defend your property – as long as you are physically and mentally prepared, have adequate firefighting resources, and your property is prepared and defensible. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-regimes-around-australia-shifted-abruptly-20-years-ago-and-falling-humidity-is-why-209689">Fire regimes around Australia shifted abruptly 20 years ago – and falling humidity is why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Or you can leave early, which means making a judgement call about the best time to go in a calm manner. That doesn’t mean panic – if there is time, it can be possible to do things like clear fuels from around the home and dampen the surrounds to give your house a better chance of surviving undefended.</p>
<p>Which should you choose? It depends, in part, on where you live and your personal circumstances. Remember too that most Australians will never experience a bushfire firsthand. </p>
<p>Every community has a different risk profile and people and communities vary considerably in their levels of preparedness and planning. </p>
<p>If a fire does start and head towards your house, you could be taken entirely by surprise if you have no bushfire plan. </p>
<p>To be clear, this is arguably the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-prepare-your-home-for-a-bushfire-and-when-to-leave-50962#:%7E:text=Under%20Catastrophic%20fire%20conditions%20all,of%20bushfires%20and%20their%20unpredictability.">largest gap</a> in Australia’s fire preparedness. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5551%2C3650&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="burned forest near road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5551%2C3650&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551322/original/file-20231002-15-6vcwli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Which way out? Planning ahead could save your life.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Planning is easy – if done ahead</h2>
<p>The question of whether Australia is ready for the fire season should be reframed. The better question is: are Australians ready? </p>
<p>The good news is, it’s easier than you think to make a fire plan. As a household, it might take just 10 minutes. Your state or territory government has a website showing you how: </p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-and-during-a-fire/your-bushfire-plan">Victoria</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/resources/bush-fire-survival-plan">New South Wales</a></li>
<li><a href="https://bushfire-survival-plan.qfes.qld.gov.au/">Queensland</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-a-fire-be-prepared/make-a-plan/5-minute-bushfire-plan/">South Australia</a></li>
<li><a href="https://mybushfireplan.wa.gov.au/">Western Australia</a></li>
<li><a href="https://esa.act.gov.au/cbr-be-emergency-ready/bushfires/bushfire-ready">Australian Capital Territory</a></li>
<li><a href="https://securent.nt.gov.au/prepare-for-an-emergency/fires/bushfires/survival-plans">Northern Territory</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colbushfirePrepareActSurvive&fbclid=IwAR1mRkwm89K_SlAnUXUm0LYwAQ7Hc8moJ7c9AoNgkmdPVDxxIPx7WMLJzvk">Tasmania</a></li>
</ul>
<p>Why plan ahead? Because it is vastly better to have a clear plan at your fingertips rather than frantically trying to figure out where your loved ones are, whether it’s too late to leave and whether you could realistically fight the fire – when the fire is on your doorstep. Faced by the reality of fire, many of us can freeze. </p>
<p>What firefighters <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-can-still-picture-the-faces-black-saturday-firefighters-want-you-to-listen-to-them-not-call-them-heroes-128632">want us to learn</a> is that the critical decisions and actions which save lives and property in a bushfire are taken by us and our communities, not by politicians or agencies. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Australia's Black Summer of fire was not normal – and we can prove it</a>
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<p><em>John Schauble contributed significantly to this article. He has worked extensively in bushfire policy and research at state level and has volunteered for over 40 years as a firefighter.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214577/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Dwyer receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia and the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Many people are asking if Australian authorities are ready for the fire season. The real question to ask is – are we ready as individuals?Graham Dwyer, Course Director, Centre for Social Impact, Swinburne University of Technology, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136432023-10-01T19:16:32Z2023-10-01T19:16:32ZOur mood usually lifts in spring. But after early heatwaves and bushfires, this year may be different<p>When we think of spring, we might imagine rebirth and renewal that comes with the warmer weather and longer days. It’s usually a time to celebrate, flock to <a href="https://floriadeaustralia.com">spring flower festivals</a> and spend more time in nature.</p>
<p>Spending time in nature or doing things outside, such as <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1757913915589845">exercising</a> or <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352827321002093">gardening</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272494419301185">lifts our mood</a>.</p>
<p>But this year, with an <a href="https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1704325785627050136">early start</a> to the bushfire season, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-heat-and-fire-this-summer-heres-how-to-prepare-212443">promise of</a> long, hot months ahead, we may see our views about the warmer months start to shift.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1704325785627050136"}"></div></p>
<p>For some people, the coming months are not a celebration. They are something to fear, or feel sad about.</p>
<p>In particular, communities and emergency responders who have experienced bushfires or drought in the past may see rising levels of <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/pdf/10.3316/ielapa.588776016823324">stress and anxiety</a> as they face the months ahead.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/here-comes-the-sun-how-the-weather-affects-our-mood-19183">Here comes the sun: how the weather affects our mood</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How’s this spring different?</h2>
<p>In recent weeks, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">declared</a> two climate events are now under way: <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">El Niño</a> and a positive <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/">Indian Ocean Dipole</a>. </p>
<p>These events predict warmer, drier conditions through to summer, as well as more intense heatwaves, bushfires and droughts.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1703999811136205005"}"></div></p>
<p>In temperate and subtropical regions, our summers are on average <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/P834-Out-of-Season-WEB.pdf">becoming</a> hotter and longer, and winters are becoming warmer and shorter. Climate change is the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/climate-change-information">primary driver</a> of these shifts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">Explainer: El Niño and La Niña</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What happens to our mood as the temperature rises?</h2>
<p>Hotter temperatures and prolonged heat is linked to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-019-00121-2">aggression</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00420-010-0534-2">higher rates</a> of emergency hospital admissions due to health conditions, heat-related injuries, and mental health concerns. </p>
<p>After an extreme weather event or disaster, rates of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33227944/">rise</a>. </p>
<p>Many Australians have already experienced the psychological and physical <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/00048674221107872">impacts</a> of bushfires, droughts, floods and heatwaves. </p>
<p>For some communities and individuals, experiencing these types of events may mean they are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0887618520301110">more</a> resilient or prepared for the future. For others, the anticipation of rising heat or other climatic threats may cause <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/10/1/1">concern</a>. They may also prompt <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00048674221107872">pre-traumatic stress</a> – the stress that comes ahead of expected loss or trauma.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-heat-and-fire-this-summer-heres-how-to-prepare-212443">Worried about heat and fire this summer? Here's how to prepare</a>
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<h2>Anxiety, anger and sadness</h2>
<p>As climate-related events become more widespread, people may also become increasingly affected by feelings such as anxiety, anger and sadness.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01251-y">Climate anxiety</a> refers to the fear, dread and worry about climate change. Anxiety can be a helpful response as it allows us to prepare and respond to future threats. For instance, climate anxiety <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494422001323">may help prompt</a> pro-environmental behaviour and climate action, such as attending a protest. But this type of anxiety can also become <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0887618520300773">overwhelming</a>.</p>
<p>The loss of wildlife and nature due to bushfires can leave people feeling <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/4/2461">grief</a> over what’s lost, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278221000018">anger</a> about the lack of action to prevent these losses.</p>
<p>Losses could also be more personal, including damage to health, livelihoods, homes, or even the ability to do enjoyable outdoor activities, such as playing sports or exercising outside.</p>
<p>Another experience, solastalgia, is the “homesickness you have when you are still at home”. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18027145/#:%7E:text=As%20opposed%20to%20nostalgia%2D%2D,connected%20to%20their%20home%20environment.">Researchers suggest</a> solastalgia is a type of distress when someone perceives negative changes and gradual deterioration to their own home environment. These feelings could arise when we notice seasonal and environmental changes to the places we love and call home.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/youre-not-the-only-one-feeling-helpless-eco-anxiety-can-reach-far-beyond-bushfire-communities-129453">You're not the only one feeling helpless. Eco-anxiety can reach far beyond bushfire communities</a>
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</p>
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<h2>But there are things you can do</h2>
<p>Heading into the hotter months, strong <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0887618520301110">community</a> support, cohesion and preparedness may be especially important. There are also things you can do to maintain and manage your mental health and wellbeing. Though more research is needed to understand which strategies work best, health professionals <a href="https://headspace.org.au/assets/Factsheets/headspace_how-to-cope-with-the-stress-of-natural-disasters_Fact-Sheet_FA01_DIGI-1.pdf">suggest</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>connecting with others, especially people you trust and who support your wellbeing </p></li>
<li><p>finding ways to connect with your community either in person (for example, through <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-community-gardening-could-ease-your-climate-concerns-211316">community gardening</a>) or online (for example, via discussion groups)</p></li>
<li><p>being mindful of your physical and psychological safety (for instance, especially during climate-related events) and, if you need it, seeking professional support</p></li>
<li><p>taking a break from distressing media content when needed. </p></li>
</ul>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-your-cool-in-a-warming-world-8-steps-to-help-manage-eco-anxiety-212174">Keeping your cool in a warming world: 8 steps to help manage eco-anxiety</a>
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<p>Understandably, people may continue to be anxious about the seasons to come with the ongoing threat of climate change.</p>
<p>To avoid becoming overwhelmed, you can also respond to and channel your distressing feelings. You can <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12144-022-02735-6">take part in</a> community-led climate action projects, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272494419301185">spend time outdoors</a> and in nature (even for <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17439760.2018.1557242">short bursts of time</a>). </p>
<p>These actions might help uphold the positive links between wellbeing and nature, no matter the season.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tara Crandon receives funding from the Child and Youth Mental Health group at QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute.</span></em></p>We’ve had an early start to the bushfire season and there’s more to come. No wonder spring isn’t always a celebration.Tara Crandon, Psychologist and PhD Candidate, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2117472023-09-28T19:58:50Z2023-09-28T19:58:50Z‘You’re constantly worrying’: pregnant women, bushfire smoke and the impossibility of safety<p>Smoke covered large swathes of Australia during the catastrophic summer fires of 2019-2020. You could see the plumes from space. Over 20% of Australia’s forests <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/25/unprecedented-globally-more-than-20-of-australias-forests-burnt-in-bushfires">went up</a> in smoke and flame. </p>
<p>As the fires spread, smoke covered towns and cities. Millions of people were suddenly confronted with bad air. Many had children. Many were pregnant. All worried about what the smoke might mean for their child. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/reproduction-kin-and-climate-crisis">new book</a> explores the worries and desperation of people who were pregnant or parenting during the unprecedented fires over the 2019–2020 summer. We drew on in-depth stories from 25 mothers (and sometimes their partners). </p>
<p>The smoke was something they had no control over. But public health advice told them they had the responsibility to keep their child safe. Mothers and their partners worried endlessly about what damage the pollutants in the air were doing. This, we argue, speaks to how those who have done little to fuel the climate crisis can be particularly at risk. </p>
<h2>What did we find?</h2>
<p>One woman, Renee, told us about the anxiety of being pregnant and with two small children in the smoke: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I was really worried about lung damage for my kids upstairs, but I was also worried, [for] like, brain development at that point, as you get into the end of the pregnancy […] I kept having conversations with myself going, ‘I’m not in my first 12 weeks, surely that’s riskier. I’m in this safer zone’.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Renee’s story speaks to how our interviewees tried to take responsibility for themselves and their foetuses. </p>
<p>It was a common thread. The 25 mothers and partners we interviewed were living in Canberra or on the south coast of New South Wales. These areas were among the worst affected by smoke. </p>
<p>Renee’s feelings of risk and responsibility are amplified in an era that historian of fire Stephen Pyne has <a href="https://theconversation.com/california-wildfires-signal-the-arrival-of-a-planetary-fire-age-125972">named the “Pyrocene</a>”, a time when bushfires and the burning of fossil fuels are careering out of control. </p>
<p>Our research shows pregnant people were framed as “doubly vulnerable” to smoke, due to their own exposure and that of their foetus. Health advice from organisations such as the <a href="https://www.thewomens.org.au/news/advice-for-pregnant-women-around-smoke-haze">Royal Women’s Hospital</a> urged them to stay indoors, use air-conditioning and to spend time at libraries and shopping centres to avoid exposure.</p>
<h2>Who is responsible?</h2>
<p>Given health warnings about smoke exposure, it’s not surprising our interviewees expressed considerable concern for their unborn babies. </p>
<p>Alice, pregnant during the fires: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It was really constantly on my mind, and I tried to kind of not get too anxious about it, but it was really difficult because […] I mean, you just think about it all the time. You’re just constantly worrying when you’re pregnant what’s going to affect the baby. Like everything you do.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Gina, pregnant during the fires: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It was just always kind of lingering, like we were just unsure about what kind of effects it would have on the development of his organs and whatever else. I was obviously more stressed than my husband, just because, you know, the mother is carrying the baby and there’s more stress just naturally on the mum</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Even while worrying about the health of their babies, women also felt the responsibility for keeping them “safe” from smoke exposure fell primarily to them. </p>
<p>What we ask is – is this fair? As recent research <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(23)00134-1/fulltext">makes clear</a>, pollutants such as bushfire smoke are uncontrollable. </p>
<p>Feminist scholars <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo117202096.html">note that</a> public health advice and scientific research tends to emphasise how vulnerable the foetus is and, by extension, place responsibility on the mother – even while acknowledging how little control they have over the situation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-hits-low-income-earners-harder-and-poor-housing-in-hotter-cities-is-a-disastrous-combination-180960">Climate change hits low-income earners harder – and poor housing in hotter cities is a disastrous combination</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>When responsibility meets uncertainty</h2>
<p>Australia has long been affected by bushfires. But they’re <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-climate-change-is-bringing-bushfires-more-often-but-some-ecosystems-in-australia-are-suffering-the-most-211683">getting worse</a> as the world heats up. </p>
<p>There’s no roadmap for how to live with sudden crises such as fires or the long, slow burn of incremental change. We’re all experimenting at individual, household and community levels as well as nationally and regionally. </p>
<p>Many of us are <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-hits-low-income-earners-harder-and-poor-housing-in-hotter-cities-is-a-disastrous-combination-180960">having to tinker</a> with our machines and our homes to take care of others and to survive the new extremes. </p>
<p>Climate change is happening to the globe. But the devastation wreaked by extreme weather, disruption to farming or intensified fires is not evenly distributed, either by who did the most to cause it or by who is most hard hit. </p>
<p>Wealth magnifies unfairness. Those who have done the most to create and benefit from carbon-intensive capitalism are more likely to be able to shield themselves from <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)00919-4/fulltext">its effects</a>, while people who are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.04.012">pregnant and parenting</a>, and <a href="https://caepr.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/aboriginal-peoples-and-response-2019-2020-bushfires">First Nations people</a> – especially children aged five and under – are more vulnerable. </p>
<p>What we point to is a question. How can we find ways to take care of foetuses and young children without forcing parents (and mothers, in particular) to shoulder the impossible responsibility of safety? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-black-summer-bushfires-put-an-enormous-strain-on-families-with-young-children-we-cant-make-the-same-mistakes-again-205026">The Black Summer bushfires put an enormous strain on families with young children. We can't make the same mistakes again</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211747/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If you were pregnant or parenting during Australia’s 2019–20 summer of smoke and fire, chances are you felt acutely anxious – and grappling with impossible responsibility.Mary Lou Rasmussen, Professor, School of Sociology, Australian National UniversityCelia Roberts, Professor of sociology, Australian National UniversityLouisa Allen, Professor, Faculty of Education and Social Work, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauRebecca Williamson, Research Officer, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124432023-09-18T05:15:24Z2023-09-18T05:15:24ZWorried about heat and fire this summer? Here’s how to prepare<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548723/original/file-20230918-27-99u0pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C40%2C4560%2C3597&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Northern Hemisphere summer brought catastrophic fires and floods to many countries. Down south, the winter was the hottest ever recorded <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGC2AR0/202308.summary.shtm">in Australia</a>, fuelled by record ocean temperatures. </p>
<p>Small wonder many Australians are worried about what summer will bring, as a likely El Niño threatens hot and dry fire weather. In the early southern spring, the fire season has already kicked off in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-17/hunter-valley-bushfire-battle/102866718">New South Wales</a>, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-18/qld-bushfire-threat-set-to-remain-this-week/102867180">Queensland</a> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/12/northern-territory-bushfire-tennant-creek-barkly-region">Northern Territory</a>, just as anticipated in <a href="https://www.afac.com.au/auxiliary/publications/newsletter/article/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-spring-2023">seasonal predictions</a>. The recent spring heatwave saw dozens of marathon runners in Sydney hospitalised and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/17/sydney-marathon-runners-hospitalised-after-event-hit-by-spring-heat">even threatened lives</a>. </p>
<p>What does this mean for you? It means if you live in the bush, country towns or the outskirts of major cities, it’s time to prepare for the possibility of fire. And if you live anywhere in Australia, you need to plan for heat.</p>
<h2>Fire gets attention – but extreme heat can do more damage</h2>
<p>Bushfire dominates how we think about summer risks in Australia. But in reality, extreme heat hits harder. That’s because extreme heat can be extremely widespread – and a <a href="https://iceds.anu.edu.au/research/research-stories/we-know-heat-kills-accurately-measuring-these-deaths-will-help-us-assess">hidden killer</a>. In particularly hot summers, almost all of us will face some kind of heat stress. Days where you just can’t cool down, or where underlying health conditions flare up.</p>
<p>As the climate becomes less stable, we’re seeing more heat domes – slow-moving high-pressure systems which sit atop an area and blast it. During extremely hot days, we often long for night when the temperature drops. But heat domes can keep heat high overnight.</p>
<p>High heat is more dangerous early in the season before people have acclimatised – and often at relatively low temperatures compared to later in the year.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548719/original/file-20230918-19-ta5k9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="bushfire smoke NSW" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548719/original/file-20230918-19-ta5k9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548719/original/file-20230918-19-ta5k9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548719/original/file-20230918-19-ta5k9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548719/original/file-20230918-19-ta5k9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548719/original/file-20230918-19-ta5k9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548719/original/file-20230918-19-ta5k9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548719/original/file-20230918-19-ta5k9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where there’s smoke, there’s fire – bushfire threats range from fire itself to smoke.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Will bushfires be back this summer?</h2>
<p>For three years, Australia has been preoccupied with floods. Now we’re heading back into fire risk. But it may be different to what you expect. La Niña’s cooler, wetter conditions have led to strong vegetation growth. Grasses dry out more quickly than other vegetation types, meaning grasslands switch rapidly from moist to tinderbox.</p>
<p>The most likely fires we’ll see this season will be grass, scrub and city fringe fires. Very large forest fires like those of the Black Summer are less likely, as these need extended dry conditions. </p>
<p>These fires will be of direct concern to those outside major cities. But city residents will see the effects too, in smoke, transport disruptions and potential crop and livestock losses which can reduce food availability. </p>
<h2>What should you do to get ready?</h2>
<p><strong>1. Fire</strong> </p>
<p>It’s essential to think ahead as much as possible. Let’s say you live near a forest or grassland which could be a fire risk. Which roads would you take? Where would you go? How could you make sure all your loved ones are contactable – and if they’re away from you, how could you make sure they can get to safety? Record the plan and keep a printed copy. </p>
<p>If you’re in a bushfire prone area, explore and make use of planning resources offered by every state, territory and local emergency agency. Download your state’s hazard or bushfire app with real-time alerts. </p>
<p>With your family, friends or housemates, run through different scenarios so you’re on the same page. When should you stay? When would you leave? Practice your evacuation. </p>
<p>If you’ve got lots of leaf litter, dry grass or fallen branches around your home or property, it’s a good time to reduce fuel loads and ensure your emergency exits are clear. </p>
<p>If you’re planning a holiday in bushfire prone areas, you also need to make safe <a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-and-during-a-fire/leave-early/staying-safe-when-you-travel">travel plans</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548716/original/file-20230918-19-ug4bzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="man planning for fire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548716/original/file-20230918-19-ug4bzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548716/original/file-20230918-19-ug4bzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548716/original/file-20230918-19-ug4bzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548716/original/file-20230918-19-ug4bzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548716/original/file-20230918-19-ug4bzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548716/original/file-20230918-19-ug4bzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548716/original/file-20230918-19-ug4bzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anxious about this summer? Plan ahead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>2. Heat</strong></p>
<p>Getting ready for intense heat means preparing your home. Is your house well insulated? If you have an air conditioner, is it running well and has it been serviced? Could you reduce how much heat comes through your windows by using shade cloth, awnings or window coverings? A <a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/how-to-prepare-your-property/landscaping">bushfire landscaped garden</a> or <a href="https://www.thedetailguysmd.com/heat-reflective-paint/">heat reflective paint</a> can also help reduce fire risk or cool the house. If you’re renting, bring any issues relating to gaps in doors or windows or faulty electricity to the attention of the real estate agent. </p>
<p>Freezer blocks wrapped in towels and refrigerated spray bottles are also cheap cooling options if you have limited cooling options in your house. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-is-particularly-hard-on-older-adults-an-aging-population-and-climate-change-put-ever-more-people-at-risk-210049">Extreme heat is particularly hard on older adults – an aging population and climate change put ever more people at risk</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If you are working from home, make sure you have backup cooling methods such as battery-operated fans in case of blackouts. </p>
<p>If your home is not well prepared for heat, plan ahead by looking for safer spaces such as a friend’s well insulated or air-conditioned home, a shopping centre, or library where you can seek refuge. Read the Red Cross heatwave <a href="https://www.redcross.org.au/globalassets/cms/emergency-services/preparedness/how-to-prepare-for-a-heatwave.pdf">preparation guide</a>. </p>
<p>Write a list of key contacts and friends or neighbours who might be particularly at risk and put them in your phone and on your fridge.</p>
<p>As the heat builds, check for <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/knowledge-centre">heatwave warning</a>s on the Bureau of Meteorology’s site. Know what the symptoms of <a href="https://www.redcross.org.au/emergencies/prepare/heatstroke-and-heat-exhaustion/">heat stroke and exhaustion</a> look like. </p>
<p>Businesses must understand <a href="https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/safety-topic/hazards/working-heat/frequently-asked-questions">their responsibilities</a> to their employees during extreme heat and have plans to manage these.</p>
<h2>Do prepare but don’t panic</h2>
<p>This year is showing us what climate change looks like. As these risks build and become more severe, we can no longer just think “she’ll be right”. </p>
<p>As climate risks expand and become increasingly severe, understanding and actively planning for these risks is now an imperative. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/top-10-tips-to-keep-cool-this-summer-while-protecting-your-health-and-your-budget-193723">Top 10 tips to keep cool this summer while protecting your health and your budget</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Celeste Young has previously received funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, The National Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, The Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research, The Victorian Department Environment,Water Land and Planning and The Victorian Department of Health.and Human Services.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nima Izadyar is a Lecturer with the School of Built Environment, College of Sport, Health and Engineering (CoSHE), Victoria University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Jones has provided technical advice on fire climate regimes to the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (Formerly the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning).</span></em></p>The northern summer was marked by intense fires and heat. Now it’s our turn to face the heat.Celeste Young, Collaborative Research Fellow, Sustainable Industries and Liveable Cities (ISILC), Victoria UniversityNima Izadyar, Lecturer, Victoria UniversityRoger Jones, Professorial Research Fellow, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.