tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/cairo-22848/articlesCairo – The Conversation2024-02-15T12:48:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2235602024-02-15T12:48:21Z2024-02-15T12:48:21ZIsrael-Egypt peace treaty has stood the test of time over 45 years: expert explains its significance<p><em>The peace agreement between Egypt and Israel, signed in 1979 to end hostilities and normalise relations between them, turns 45 on 26 March. The Conversation Africa asked Ofir Winter, a senior researcher at the <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/">Institute for National Security Studies</a>, who studies Egyptian politics and the Arab-Israeli conflict, for his insights on the peace deal and the key challenging moments since it was signed.</em></p>
<h2>When and why did the peace treaty come into force?</h2>
<p>After <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-Israeli-wars">five wars</a> over three decades, Egypt and Israel <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Camp-David-Accords">signed a historic peace agreement</a> in March 1979. It marked the first treaty of its kind between an Arab country and Israel. Since then, five more Arab countries – <a href="https://icds.ee/en/new-peace-treaties-in-the-middle-east/">Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/18/where-do-morocco-and-sudan-relations-stand-with-israel">Morocco and Sudan</a> – have made peace with Israel.</p>
<p>The peace deal, and its consequences, are viewed as having reshaped the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict for <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/egypt-israel-peace-leaders-armies-peace-peoples">the better</a>.</p>
<p>Jerusalem and Cairo had various motivations to choose peace over conflict. Israel wanted to secure its southern border and neutralise the region’s largest and most powerful Arab country.</p>
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<p>Egypt wanted to restore its sovereignty over the Sinai Peninsula, which it lost in the <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/the-1967-six-day-war">1967 Six-Day War</a>. It also wanted to redirect resources from military spending to strengthen its economy. And it wanted to <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-u-s-egypt-relationship/#:%7E:text=Egypt%20is%20a%20valued%20U.S.,a%20pillar%20for%20regional%20stability">strengthen its ties with the United States</a>, by being at peace with its ally, Israel.</p>
<p>Peace with Israel contributes to Egypt’s regional and international standing. It positions it as a positive stabilising actor in Middle Eastern politics, and as a mediator between Israel and the Palestinians.</p>
<p>The Israel-Egypt agreement, although labelled “<a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-981-16-2717-0_74-1">cold peace</a>”, grants both countries diplomatic and military cooperation. It also boosts tourism between them (mainly from Israel to southern Sinai), and allows modest mutual trade. </p>
<p>In 2018, the countries signed a deal for Israeli gas exports to Egypt for 10 years, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1G31BK/">worth US$15 billion</a>. This was followed by the establishment of the <a href="https://emgf.org/">Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum</a> in Cairo with other regional partners. Israel’s gas exports are crucial for Egypt’s economy. They also support its aspiration to become a regional energy hub.</p>
<h2>What challenges has the treaty faced?</h2>
<p>During the era of President Hosni Mubarak (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hosni-Mubarak">1981-2011</a>), both countries experienced several crises, such as the recalls of Egyptian ambassadors in protest against Israeli policies following the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1981-1988/lebanon">First Lebanon War</a> (1982-1986) and amid the <a href="https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/jcs/article/view/220/378">second Palestinian intifada (uprising) (2000-2005)</a>.</p>
<p>The attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo by Egyptian protesters <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/egypt-cracks-down-after-israeli-embassy-attack/2011/09/10/gIQA78JIIK_story.html">in September 2011</a>, following a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/03/world/middleeast/israel-egypt-border-shootings.html">terrorist incident</a> at the Egyptian-Israeli border resulting in the death of eight Israelis and three Egyptians, also left a lasting negative impact on their relations. Since then, the Israeli embassy has left its previous permanent residence and operates on a reduced scale and with a lower profile.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/hamas-israeli-conflict-whats-at-stake-for-egypt-215710">Hamas-Israeli conflict: what's at stake for Egypt</a>
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<p>However, past crises did not escalate to the point of suspending the peace agreement. Cairo still considers peace an important asset that serves its core interests. These include its strategic relationship with the United States. This provides it annual military and economic aid of <a href="https://pomed.org/publication/fact-sheet-u-s-military-assistance-to-egypt-separating-fact-from-fiction/">over US$1 billion</a>. Egypt also benefits from intelligence cooperation with Israel in the fight against terrorism in Sinai. In addition, the two countries have various economic collaborations worth billions. </p>
<h2>Gaza conflict and the peace treaty</h2>
<p>Since the outbreak of the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/2/15/israels-war-on-gaza-live-four-dead-as-israel-hits-city-in-lebanons-south">war in Gaza</a> following the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-israels-intelligence-chiefs-failed-to-listen-to-october-7-warnings-and-the-lessons-to-be-learned-219346">7 October 2023</a>, Egypt has consistently stated that the temporary or permanent displacement of Gaza residents to its territory, whether intentional or unintentional, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/jordan-egypt-reject-any-palestinian-displacement-into-their-countries/7329543.html">is not up for discussion</a>. </p>
<p>The only exceptions are limited humanitarian cases, such as admitting injured individuals for medical treatment in Egypt.</p>
<p>Hosting Gaza refugees could strain the Egyptian economy. It could also facilitate Islamist and jihadist infiltration to the country, and provoke internal security issues, further complicating the Israel-Egypt border situation.</p>
<p>Even before the current war, Egypt had long been concerned about alleged Israeli plots to <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/palestinians-slam-israeli-minister-over-sinai-homeland/982790">resolve the Gaza issue at its expense</a>. These concerns have been heightened by <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-expert-warns-israel-cannot-afford-to-take-cairos-cooperation-for-granted/">recent statements</a> from Israeli right-wing politicians that were wrongly interpreted as reflecting Israeli official policy. And Egypt fears that Hamas and other Islamist groups may challenge its sovereignty in pursuit of their own agenda.</p>
<p>Another Egyptian concern relates to possible Israeli violation of their demilitarisation agreements. According to the <a href="https://www.gov.il/en/Departments/General/israel-egypt-peace-treaty">military appendix of the 1979 peace agreement</a>, areas C and D near the Egyptian-Israeli border are subject to demilitarisation. Any temporary or permanent changes require mutual coordination.</p>
<p>Should Israel undertake military operations <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/14/erdogan-egypt-visit-talks-continue-gaza-ceasefire-deal-israel">in Rafah</a> involving more than the four battalions allowed under the appendix, Egypt may assert a breach of the agreement. A mechanism of military coordination between the Israeli and Egyptian defence forces monitors the parties’ commitments in the peace agreement. They work to solve disputes and to prevent escalations.</p>
<p>The current tensions coincide with an <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/4/egypts-economy-will-be-its-biggest-challenge-during-el-sisis-third-term">economic crisis in Egypt</a> and <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-tel-aviv-rally-protesters-denounce-government-call-for-new-elections/">political protests in Israel</a>. They undermine the legitimacy of both governments. </p>
<p>This situation pushes both sides to take a more populist approach towards each other. This could divert attention from domestic criticism to external threats. Also, Egypt is cautious not to be perceived by domestic and Arab audiences as collaborating with Israel against the Palestinians. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/un-genocide-ruling-wont-change-israels-behaviour-three-reasons-why-222128">UN genocide ruling won't change Israel's behaviour: three reasons why</a>
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<p>Such an atmosphere, where politicians prioritise short-term public opinion considerations over long-term interests, could escalate the problem.</p>
<p>Even amid the tensions stemming from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-war-in-gaza-is-wiping-out-palestines-education-and-knowledge-systems-222055">war in Gaza</a>, Egypt has no intention of abrogating its peace treaty with Israel. The Egyptian foreign minister has <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-says-peace-treaty-with-israel-safe-despite-jitters-over-rafah-offensive/">reaffirmed Cairo’s commitment to the agreement</a>.</p>
<p>However, Egypt may still take additional steps to express its protest towards Israel. These include recalling the Egyptian ambassador from Tel Aviv, before resorting to more severe actions like suspending the peace treaty or some of its aspects, which could be harmful for both sides.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hamas-assault-echoes-1973-arab-israeli-war-a-shock-attack-and-questions-of-political-intelligence-culpability-215228">Hamas assault echoes 1973 Arab-Israeli war – a shock attack and questions of political, intelligence culpability</a>
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<p>Finally, the 7 October Hamas attack has already stalled the process of normalising relations <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67922238">between Israel and Saudi Arabia</a>. Undermining the delicate relations between Israel and Egypt could potentially grant Hamas another strategic political achievement. It is in the interest of both Israel and Egypt, as well as the wider international community, to prevent such an outcome and ensure another 45 years of stable peace between the two nations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223560/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ofir Winter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Undermining the delicate relations between Israel and Egypt could potentially grant Hamas a strategic political achievement.Ofir Winter, Senior Researcher, Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217892024-01-29T12:51:00Z2024-01-29T12:51:00ZOver half of charity campaigns for international causes focus on Africa – here’s why that’s harmful<p>The images used by charities and NGOs can become deeply ingrained in the memories of supporters, donors, development partners and the “beneficiaries” themselves. These stories colour what is generally known about global poverty and the developing world. </p>
<p>One of the most notorious examples was the media and charity coverage of the <a href="http://www.imaging-famine.org/papers/UK_Report_Section_1.pdf">Ethiopian famine</a> in the early 1980s. Powerful and disturbing images brought the reality of the famine into the lives of millions of British people and fast became the currency of the media and NGOs.</p>
<p>But there’s a problem with this. The use of such imagery seems to confirm rather than challenge traditional perceptions that Africa is underdeveloped and not capable of dealing with its own problems.</p>
<p>In 2021, I purchased 17 national newspapers in the UK every weekend over a period of six months. The aim was to explore whether charity adverts have changed in recent years and what kinds of characters are represented in fundraising campaigns. </p>
<p>After analysing a total of 541 fundraising images, one of the <a href="https://charity-advertising.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/charity-representations-of-distant-others-report-2024.pdf">major findings</a> was that Africa continues to be over-represented in charity adverts supporting international causes. Over half of the images (56%) focused on countries in Africa. And almost none of these images contain whole family units – rather they are set in rural areas and feature women and children.</p>
<p>But there is also evidence that charities are actively responding to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/voluntary-sector-network/2018/jan/12/charities-stop-poverty-porn-fundraising-ed-sheeran-comic-relief">previous critiques</a> of using shock tactics, dehumanisation and employing images to evoke emotions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A charity advert in a newspaper with a picture of women and children in rural Ethiopia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Example of an advert by EthiopiAid in the Guardian using images of women and children.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Girling</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Why does it matter?</h2>
<p>By constantly focusing the spotlight on African countries, charities reinforce historical stereotypes of underdevelopment that equate Africa with poverty. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/67684/public-attitudes-april10.pdf">report</a> from 2010 that was commissioned by the Department for International Development, for instance, found that the UK public view “developing countries” as synonymous with “Africa”. They associate Africa with poverty and misery, reflecting some of the representations used in charitable appeals. </p>
<p>The consistent portrayal of these depictions in various campaigns has promoted the view among the British public that there has been little to no progress in economic and social development across Africa since the 1980s. This has contributed to the belief that Africa is a “<a href="https://academicjournals.org/article/article1379931879_Andrews.pdf">bottomless pit</a>” in terms of charitable efforts and the constant need for foreign aid.</p>
<p>But, in reality, this is not the case. Africa is developing fast. It has the world’s <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/reimagining-economic-growth-in-africa-turning-diversity-into-opportunity">youngest and fastest-growing population</a> which, by the middle of this century, is expected to hit 2.5 billion.</p>
<h2>Addressing stereotypes</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, my findings do suggest that the sector is making strides towards decolonising narratives and addressing its use of damaging stereotypes. In 2016, a study found that 34% of all <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jid.3235">British charity adverts</a> used “pitiful images” that explicitly emphasised human suffering. </p>
<p>However, by 2021, only two out of the 27 charities that placed adverts used pitiful images in their fundraising appeals. This amounted to 11% of all adverts as these charities repeatedly used such imagery over the six month study period, but it still represents a significant decline.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A fundraising appeal by Sightsavers depicting an African child suffering from trachoma." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Image from a Sightsavers fundraising leaflet which was used 20 times during the six month period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Girling</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>Women and children continued to be the most popular characters in newspaper adverts. But, compared to similar studies from <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/representations-of-global-poverty-9780857722492/">2013</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jid.3235">2016</a>, there was a significant reduction in the use of images of children. In 2021, 21% of charitable campaigns featured images of children, down from 42% in 2013.</p>
<p>By 2021, 20% of all the images used in charitable campaigns were also of people characterised as professionals or leaders from developing countries. These people included doctors, nurses and other development workers, offering a more realistic view of people from Africa.</p>
<p>Several factors have prompted charities into reconsidering the potential damage of the representation they use and the stories they tell in recent years. One of the main factors is the need to decolonise narratives by reducing the use of negative stereotypes.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Black-Lives-Matter">Black Lives Matter</a> protests in 2020 were a significant catalyst in charities rapidly adopting or updating their ethical imagery policies. The protests alerted people and organisations to the injustices of colonial histories. </p>
<p>The COVID pandemic was also instrumental in charities being forced to employ local photographers and filmmakers in the countries where they deliver programmes. Travel restrictions that were imposed during the pandemic meant charities were unable to fly in their own staff.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>Images have the potential to inflict damage. So communications professionals in the charity sector must strive to diversify the characters they portray.</p>
<p>But the public has a level of responsibility too. We all need to be careful about making assumptions of other countries and cultures when viewing charity images in newspaper adverts. Photographs may not always provide a complete picture.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221789/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Girling does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Charity advertising often reinforces historical stereotypes of underdevelopment that equate Africa with poverty.David Girling, Associate Professor and Director of Research Communication in the School of Global Development, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073172023-06-22T08:45:54Z2023-06-22T08:45:54ZCities are central to our future – they have the power to make, or break, society’s advances<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530867/original/file-20230608-3016-2sh956.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dharavi slum in India. Billions of people live in terrible conditions in the world's cities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Punit Paranje/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We live in tumultuous times. In the space of just a few years, we have witnessed a surge in <a href="https://ppr.lse.ac.uk/articles/10.31389/lseppr.4">populist politics across the world</a>, a <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019">global pandemic</a>, a spike in <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/weather-related-disasters-increase-over-past-50-years-causing-more-damage-fewer">environmental disasters</a> and a fraying of geopolitical relations demonstrated by the <a href="https://www.ft.com/war-in-ukraine">tragic war in Ukraine</a> and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden">escalating tensions over Taiwan</a>.</p>
<p>That has all occurred against a backdrop of dramatic technological changes that are fundamentally altering the way we work and relate to one another. </p>
<p>Our future is in the balance. Cities will be central to our fate, for two reasons. </p>
<p>First, they are now home to <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/overview#:%7E:text=Today%2C%20some%2056%25%20of%20the,billion%20inhabitants%20%E2%80%93%20live%20in%20cities">over half of the global population</a>, a share that will rise to <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">two-thirds by 2050</a>. That is something never before seen in human history, and means that the forces shaping life in cities now also shape our world as a whole. </p>
<p>Second, cities throughout history have been the engines of human progress. Cities are where solutions are found – but also where perils are amplified when we fail to act.</p>
<p>This article draws on a book I co-authored with Tom Lee-Devlin, <a href="https://linktr.ee/ageofthecity">Age of the City: Why our Future will be Won or Lost Together</a>, which has just been published by Bloomsbury. As the book’s subtitle highlights, we need to ensure that we create more inclusive and sustainable cities if all our societies are to thrive. </p>
<h2>Cities as seats of populist revolt</h2>
<p>The great paradox of modern globalisation is that declining friction in the movement of people, goods and information has made where you live more important than ever. Appreciation of the complexity of globalisation has come a long way since the early 2000s, when American political commentator Thomas Friedman’s <a href="https://www.amazon.com/World-Flat-History-Twenty-first-Century/dp/0374292884">The World is Flat </a> and British academic Frances Cairncross’s <a href="https://hbswk.hbs.edu/archive/the-death-of-distance-how-the-communications-revolution-is-changing-our-lives-distance-isn-t-what-it-used-to-be">The Death of Distance</a> captured the public’s imagination. </p>
<p>We now know that, far from making the world flat, globalisation has made it spiky. </p>
<p>The growing concentration of wealth and power in major urban metropolises is toxifying our politics. The wave of populist politics engulfing many countries is often built on anger against cosmopolitan urban elites. This has been given expression through <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887">Brexit in Britain</a>, and in support for anti-establishment politicians in the US, France, Italy, Sweden and other countries. </p>
<p>A common thread of all these populist movements is the notion that mainstream politicians, business leaders and media figures cocooned in big cities have let the rest of their countries down and lost interest in “left behind” places and people. </p>
<p>These populist revolts against dynamic cities are rooted in real grievances based on stagnating wages and soaring inequality. </p>
<p>A transformational effort to spread economic opportunity is long overdue. But undermining dynamic cities is not the way to do that. Cities like London, New York and Paris – and in the developing world Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Jakarta, Shanghai, Cairo, Johannesburg and Lagos – are engines of economic growth and job creation without which their respective national economies would be crippled.</p>
<p>What’s more, many of these cities continue to harbour profound inequalities of their own, driven by wildly unaffordable housing and broken education systems, among other things. They are also in a state of flux, thanks to the rise of remote working.</p>
<p>In places like San Francisco, offices and shops are suffering, municipal taxes are declining and businesses that depend on intense footfall – from barbers to buskers – are under threat. So too are public transport systems, many of which depend on mass commuting and are haemorrhaging cash.</p>
<p>All countries, therefore, are in dire need of a new urban agenda, grounded in an appreciation of the power of large cities – when designed properly – to not just drive economic activity and creativity, but also bring together people from many different walks of life, building social cohesion and combating loneliness. </p>
<p>But our focus must extend beyond the rich world. It is in developing countries where most of the growth in cities and the world’s population is taking place. Overcoming poverty, addressing the Sustainable Development Goals and addressing climate change, pandemics and other threats requires that we find solutions in cities around the world. </p>
<h2>Dangers posed for cities in the developing world</h2>
<p>Developing countries now account for most of the world’s city-dwellers, thanks to decades of dramatic urban growth.</p>
<p>In some cases, such as China, rapid urbanisation has been the result of a process of economic modernisation that has lifted large swathes of the population out of poverty. </p>
<p>In others, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, urbanisation and economic development have been disconnected, with rural deprivation and the flight from danger playing a greater role in the migration to cities than urban opportunity. </p>
<p>Either way, cities are now where the world’s poor are choosing to live. And many of their cities are giant and overcrowded, with residents too often living in appalling conditions. </p>
<p>Appreciating what is happening in the cities of the developing world is essential if poverty is to be overcome. It also is vital if we are to understand why contagious diseases are making a comeback. Modern pandemics, from HIV to COVID-19, have their origins in these cities. </p>
<p>Crowded conditions are coinciding with a number of other trends in poor countries, including rapid deforestation, intensive livestock farming and the consumption of bushmeat, to increase the risk of diseases transferring from animals to humans and gaining a foothold in the population. </p>
<p>From there, connectivity between the world’s cities, particularly via airports, makes them a catalyst for the global dissemination of deadly diseases. That means that dreadful living conditions in many developing world cities are not only a pressing humanitarian and development issue, but also a matter of global public health. </p>
<p>Tremendous progress has been made in the past two centuries in <a href="https://wellcome.org/news/reforming-infectious-disease-research-development-ecosystem">combating infectious diseases</a>, but the tide is turning against us. Cities will be the principal battleground for the fight ahead. </p>
<p>Cities are also where humanity’s battle against climate change will be won or lost. Ocean rise, depletion of vital water resources and urban heatwaves risk making many cities uninhabitable. Coastal cities, which account for nearly all global urban growth, are particularly vulnerable. </p>
<p>While rich cities such as Miami, Dubai and Amsterdam are threatened, developing world cities such as Mumbai, Jakarta and Lagos are even more vulnerable due to the cost of developing sea walls, drainage systems and other protective measures. </p>
<p>At the same time, cities, <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/cutting-global-carbon-emissions-where-do-cities-stand">which account for 70% of global emissions</a>, will be at the heart of efforts to mitigate climate change. From encouraging public transport use and the adoption of electric vehicles to developing better systems for heating and waste management, there is much they need to do.</p>
<p>In 1987, Margaret Thatcher is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/apr/08/margaret-thatcher-quotes">reported to have declared</a>: “There is no such thing as society”, only “individual men and women and families”. In fact, <em>Homo sapiens</em> is a social creature, and our collective prosperity depends on the strength of the bonds between us. If we are to survive the turmoil that lies ahead, we must rediscover our ability to act together. Since their emergence five millennia ago, cities have been central to that. We cannot afford to let them fail.</p>
<p><em>Ian Goldin and Tom Lee-Devlin, <a href="https://linktr.ee/ageofthecity">Age of the City: Why our Future will be Won or Lost Together, Bloomsbury, June 2023</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Goldin receives funding from Citibank, and the Allan and Gill Gray Foundation.
</span></em></p>Cities are where solutions are found – but also where perils are amplified when we fail to act.Ian Goldin, Professor of Globalisation and Development; Director of the Oxford Martin Programmes on Technological and Economic Change, The Future of Work and the Future of Development, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882342022-08-14T08:07:49Z2022-08-14T08:07:49ZYes, Africa’s informal sector has problems, but the answer isn’t to marginalise it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478087/original/file-20220808-1331-vy8036.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Informal workers are a key part of African economies</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>African leaders are increasingly aspiring to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12132-016-9294-8">“modernise”</a> their cities. That is to make them “globally competitive” and “smart”. The hope is to strategically position cities in Africa to drive the continent’s much-needed socio-economic transformation.</p>
<p>But these aspirations tend to marginalise and antagonise the informal sector. The sector encompasses the suite of economic activities by workers and economic units that are – in law or in practice – not covered (or insufficiently covered) by formal arrangements.</p>
<p>We are a team of international scholars researching sustainable cities in Africa. In our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305750X21003971">latest paper</a>, we explore the dual role played by the informal sector in Africa’s urban economy. On the one hand, it plays a positive role. It provides employment, securing household income and savings, provides household basic needs and boosts civic engagement. </p>
<p>But the sector also plays a negative role. It contributes to social and gender inequality, insecurity, congestion and pollution. </p>
<p>Overall, we found that the informal sector has a lot to offer the future of African cities. We therefore recommend that public policy focuses more on regularising the sector, instead of displacing it. This is often done to make way for <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12132-016-9294-8">elitist big capital projects</a>. </p>
<p>Also, we warn that ignoring or marginalising the millions of people whose livelihoods depend on the sector could spell a social bloodbath on the continent.</p>
<h2>The ‘smart cities’ craze in Africa</h2>
<p>There has been a resurgent interest in building so-called “smart”, “modern”, “globally competitive” <a href="https://theconversation.com/building-new-cities-to-meet-africas-rapid-urbanisation-is-a-risky-bet-126099">cities in Africa</a>. Some are seeking to build entirely new cities. But, for the most part, most governments want to put cities on the “map” through large-scale redevelopment or by “modernising” existing city districts.</p>
<p>African cities have long been blamed for not serving as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305750X20302886">engines of growth and structural transformation</a> as their counterparts did during Europe’s Industrial Revolution. This makes it refreshing that leaders on the continent are seeking to turn things around. </p>
<p>The problem, however, is that these visions of city modernisation tend to heavily marginalise and antagonise the informal sector in their design and execution. Some even have a strong focus on displacing informal workers and activities – particularly hawkers and hawking, slum dwellers and slum settlements – from the central business districts of the cities.</p>
<p>For instance, early this year, the authorities in Nigeria sent a combined team of police, military and other law enforcement officials to <a href="https://dailytrust.com/anguish-tears-as-rivers-government-demolishes-port-harcourt-slum">destroy a Port Harcourt </a>informal settlement that housed some 15,000 families.</p>
<p>Their counterparts in Ghana are currently conducting <a href="https://www.modernghana.com/news/1170595/squatters-clash-with-police-during-demolition-exer.html">similar exercises</a>.</p>
<p>These decisions are often justified on the grounds that informal workers and their activities generate <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0169796X1102700406">“congestion”, “crime”, “filth/grime”, and “disorderliness”</a>. </p>
<p>In other words, they impede sustainable city-making, and hence, must be eradicated. </p>
<p>But is this premise backed by the evidence? This is the question our team <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305750X21003971">recently interrogated</a>.</p>
<p>We conclude that the informal sector is rather the goose laying Africa’s golden eggs.</p>
<h2>Unpacking the data</h2>
<p>We argue in our paper that African leaders must re-think the informal sector as a potential site for innovation and solutions. </p>
<p>Consider its employment creation potential for instance. In 2018, a study by the <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/books/WCMS_626831/lang--en/index.htm">International Labour Organization (ILO)</a> found that the informal sector employs some 89.2% of the total labour force in sub-Saharan Africa if agriculture is included.</p>
<p>Even without agriculture, the share of informal employment is still significant: 76.8%. In central Africa, without agriculture, the sector’s share of employment hovered at 78.8% and 91% with agriculture. In east Africa, the contributions stood at 76.6% without agriculture and 91.6% with agriculture. The figures for southern and western Africa hovered around 36.1% and 87% without agriculture and 40.2% and 92.4% <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/books/WCMS_626831/lang--en/index.htm">when agriculture is included</a>.</p>
<p>The informal sector also makes other important contributions to Africa’s economy. In 2000, the gross value additions of Benin, Burkina Faso, Senegal and Togo’s informal sector (including agriculture) hovered around 71.6%, 55.8%, 51.5%, and 72.5% of the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/097380101200600202">countries’ total GDPs</a>. </p>
<p>The sector’s contribution to housing too is <a href="https://researchrepository.rmit.edu.au/discovery/delivery/61RMIT_INST:ResearchRepository/9921864078801341#13248372790001341">substantial</a>. The most notable form of informal housing, popularly called “slums”, provide accommodation to millions of urban dwellers on the continent. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331176027_Habitat-III-Regional-Report-Africa_2017">United Nations’ data</a> suggest that Nigeria’s share of urban population that are accommodated in slums as of 2015 stood at 50.2%. That of Ethiopia was 73.9%; Uganda’s 53.6%; Tanzania’s 50.7%. Ghana and Rwanda’s hovered around 37.9% and 53.2%, respectively. </p>
<p>Clearly, the informal sector oils Africa’s urban economy in many important ways. This makes it highly unlikely that any visions of transforming lives on the continent can succeed without taking the sector into adequate account.</p>
<p>More importantly, the millions of working-class people whose lives depend on the sector have shown consistently that they won’t take their continuing marginalisation lying down. They frequently <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/097380101200600202">resist eviction orders</a>.</p>
<p>Perhaps, their most profound <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghanas-covid-lockdown-why-it-triggered-a-toxic-mix-of-mass-defiance-and-police-violence-176062">moment of resistance</a> was witnessed at the height of the COVID pandemic. </p>
<p>Many African governments imposed lockdowns to limit community transmission of the virus. However, after subjecting informal workers to extensive brutalities, they still refused to comply, forcing many governments to suspend the lockdowns. The pandemic has shown that the continuing systematic marginalisation of informal workers in city-making heralds more trouble for the future.</p>
<h2>Informality at the heart of city-making</h2>
<p>The issue is not that city authorities must allow informal workers and activities to go unchecked. They clearly have a responsibility to deal with the problems in the sector to ensure the security and health of the public. This includes the informal workers themselves. </p>
<p>The problem with current approaches is that they largely dispossess the workers and displace them to make way for <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tran.12105">big capital projects </a> which serve the needs of a privileged few.</p>
<p>African leaders must recognise the enormous potentials of the continent’s informal workers and begin to integrate them better into their city-building visions and strategies. </p>
<p>The recent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2014/mar/27/waste-egypt-refuse-collectors-zabaleen-cairo">integration of informal waste collectors/recyclers</a> – popularly called <em>Zabbaleen</em> – in waste management in Cairo, Egypt’s capital, offers great lessons.</p>
<p>The <em>Zabbaleen</em> had long been neglected for so-called “formal” private companies which, however, continued to prove inefficient and structurally unable to navigate the narrow streets of several neighbourhoods of Cairo.</p>
<p>When Cairo authorities finally recognised that the <em>Zabbaleen</em> are better suited for the job, they changed course and brought them onboard. The <a href="https://rtd.rt.com/stories/zabbaleen-cairos--rubbish-collectors-21st-century-change/">emerging evidence</a> suggests that the change is paying some fruitful dividends in improved sanitation.</p>
<p>Cairo’s progressive example paints a powerful image of how the capabilities of informal workers could be seriously incorporated and integrated into building African cities. Hopefully, more of such interventions will be replicated in other sectors of the continent’s urban economy.</p>
<p><em>Dr Henry Mensah and Professor Imoro Braimah of KNUST’s Centre for Settlements Studies, and Department of Planning contributed to the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X21003971#bb0970">original article</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Informal workers are victims of the smart city drive in Africa.Gideon Abagna Azunre, PhD student, Concordia UniversityFestival Godwin Boateng, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Centre for Sustainable Urban Development, The Earth Institute, Columbia UniversityOwusu Amponsah, Senior Lecturer, Department of planning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST)Stephen Appiah Takyi, Senior Lecturer, Department of Planning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1792422022-03-17T14:20:29Z2022-03-17T14:20:29ZRussia-Ukraine crisis poses a serious threat to Egypt – the world’s largest wheat importer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452133/original/file-20220315-15-1bh1r14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly pledged to keep food prices in the fair range amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Ahmed Gomaa/Xinhua via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could create a global food security crisis. It is disrupting agricultural production and trade from one of the world’s major exporting regions. This threatens to drive rising food prices still higher and create scarcity, especially for regions most dependent on exports from Russia and Ukraine. </p>
<p>Particularly affected is the Middle East and North Africa – or MENA – region. These Arab countries <a href="https://www.arab-reform.net/publication/the-impact-of-the-ukraine-war-on-the-arab-region-food-insecurity-in-an-already-vulnerable-context/">consume</a> the highest wheat per capita, about 128 kg of wheat per capita, which is twice the world average. <a href="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/storage.arab-reform.net/ari/2022/03/11145720/Wheat_En_FInal.pdf">More than half</a> of this comes from Russia and Ukraine.</p>
<p>As agricultural and food security experts, we have explored the impacts of the war on the wheat market, <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-serious-food-security-threat-egypt#:%7E:text=The%20Russia%2DUkraine%20crisis%20poses%20a%20serious%20food%20security%20threat%20for%20Egypt,-March%2014%2C%202022&text=Russia's%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine%20has,the%20world's%20major%20exporting%20regions.">focusing on Egypt</a>. </p>
<p>Wheat is a key food item for Egypt, representing <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/">between</a> 35% and 39% of caloric intake per person in the last few years. And wheat imports usually account for about <a href="https://app.amis-outlook.org/#/market-database/supply-and-demand-overview">62%</a> of total wheat use in the country. </p>
<p>Despite the government’s efforts following the global food crisis in 2007 to 2008 to diversify sources of cereal imports, the vast majority of <a href="https://comtrade.un.org/">cereal imports</a>, between 57% and 60%, come from Russia and Ukraine. </p>
<p>A number of key policy actions are needed that will reduce dependence on Russia and Ukraine in the short term. This will help Egypt’s agriculture and food system to become fairer and more resilient – an absolute necessity in the context of looming threats from climate change, water scarcity and conflict.</p>
<h2>Black Sea import disruptions</h2>
<p>Egypt is the <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/egy#:%7E:text=Imports%20In%202019%2C%20Egypt%20imported,%2C%20and%20France%20(%24316M).">world’s largest</a> importer of wheat. It imports a total of 12 to 13 million tons every year. With a population of 105 million, growing at a rate of <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/818">1.9%</a> a year, Egypt has become increasingly dependent on imports to meet food needs. </p>
<p>Imports of cereal crops have been steadily increasing over the last three decades at a rate higher than that of domestic production. </p>
<iframe title="Egypt's wheat imports, Million metric tons" aria-label="Interactive area chart" id="datawrapper-chart-q6SRH" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/q6SRH/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="410" width="100%"></iframe>
<p>Egypt’s wheat market and trade regime is largely controlled by government agencies. The General Authority for Supply Commodities, operating under the Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade, usually handles <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/agec.12656">about half</a> of the total wheat imported, while private trading companies handle the other half.</p>
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<p>Government agencies are already feeling the impact of the war, which has led to recent cancellation of tenders due to lack of offers, in particular from Ukraine and Russia. </p>
<p>Still, there is no fear of shortage in the coming weeks. In early February, Egyptian MoSit Minister Aly Moselhy <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/egypt-has-strategic-wheat-reserves-to-cover-5-months-supply-minister">said</a> that the country held sufficient inventory to cover five months of consumption. But the outlook beyond that is less clear. </p>
<p>With the abrupt closure of Ukraine ports and current maritime trade in the Black Sea – wheat is transported across the Black Sea – Egypt will have to find new suppliers if Ukraine is unable to export wheat this year and if sanctions against Russia impede food trade indirectly.</p>
<p>Such opportunities are, unfortunately for Egypt, limited. </p>
<h2>Limited options</h2>
<p>Currently, wheat producers in South America – Argentina in particular – have larger than usual <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/011922-argentina-ends-2021-22-wheat-harvest-at-record-218-mil-mt-on-robust-yields">surpluses</a> from the last harvest available to export. Overall, however, it will be difficult to expand the global wheat supply in the short run. About 95% of the wheat produced in the European Union and about 85% of that in the United States is planted in the fall, leaving those regions little room for expanding production in the near term.</p>
<p>In addition, wheat competes with crops such as maize, soybeans, rapeseed, and cotton, all of which are also seeing record high prices. In combination with record-high fertiliser prices (also exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict) farmers in some regions may favour less fertiliser-intensive crops, such as soybeans.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-war-with-ukraine-risks-fresh-pressure-on-fertiliser-prices-178334">Russia's war with Ukraine risks fresh pressure on fertiliser prices</a>
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<p>About <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery">20%</a> of world wheat exports come from the Southern Hemisphere (primarily Argentina and Australia) which typically ship from December through March.</p>
<p>In addition, Canada and Kazakhstan are large producers that harvest in the fall. Over the coming year and beyond, their exports may be able to make up much of the deficit created by the loss from Ukraine production, but at a higher cost due to longer shipping routes and increased transportation costs triggered by higher oil prices.</p>
<h2>Rising prices</h2>
<p>Rising global wheat prices hit a 10-year high at US$523 per ton on March 7. This is a serious problem for the Egyptian government’s budget and a potential threat to consumer purchasing power. </p>
<p>Even just before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, prices of commodities in Egypt were increasing. The war has started adding further pressure and consumers are feeling these impacts. </p>
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<p>Some countries have already imposed export restrictions in response to rising prices. These trends, coupled with disruptions in Russia’s and Ukraine’s exports, will likely add further upward pressures on prices going forward. Even under the most optimistic assumptions, global wheat prices will remain high throughout 2022 and the trend is likely to persist through 2023, given limits on expanding production.</p>
<p>The Egyptian government has been spending about US$3 billion annually for wheat imports. The recent price increase could nearly double that to US$5.7 billion. This, in turn, threatens Egypt’s <a href="https://www.madamasr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Half-baked-the-other-side-of-Egypts-baladi-bread-subsidy.pdf">Baladi bread subsidy program</a>. This program provides millions of people with 150 loaves of subsidised bread per month. About 90% of the production cost is borne by the government at an annual cost of US$3.24 billion. The program requires about 9 million tons of wheat annually about half of the total wheat consumption in Egypt and three quarters of Egypt’s wheat imports.</p>
<h2>Policy options</h2>
<p>In the short term, Egypt needs to diversify its food import sources. </p>
<p>The government is actively exploring this option, while also increasing planned procurement from domestic sources by 38% over last year’s figure. The government has just announced a new and <a href="https://enterprise.press/stories/2022/03/17/carrots-sticks-for-local-wheat-farmers-to-up-supply-67145/">relatively higher</a> buying price for domestic wheat from farmers. </p>
<p>In addition, the government has decided to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-10/egypt-to-ban-exports-of-staple-foods-to-safeguard-reserves">ban exports</a> of staple foods, including wheat, for three months to limit pressure on existing reserves. </p>
<p>In the long term, Egypt needs to explore options for reducing the gap between domestic supply and demand. Here are some of its options.</p>
<p>Boosting domestic wheat production will be challenging, as Egyptian farmers are already achieving high yields, relying on high input and water use. While there are some opportunities to expand arable land, modernise farming systems and improve water management practices, the country’s principal focus should be to adapt the farming system to address imminent water shortages and climate change threats and increase resilience, rather than unsustainably expanding production.</p>
<p>Reducing the high consumption and waste of bread has significant potential. Egyptians on average consume about 145 kg of wheat per capita annually – double the global average. </p>
<p>Improve the efficiency and targeting of the <a href="https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/10.1596/978-1-4648-1087-9_ch3">Tamween food subsidy</a> program. This provides beneficiaries with ration cards for various foods. The program absorbs a large share of imported wheat and vegetable oils. Reforming it could reduce inefficiencies in the wheat sector and the cost of running the program. </p>
<p>In conclusion, the Russia-Ukraine war poses a big challenge to global food security and particularly difficult obstacles for Egypt. The short-term and long-term impacts will of course depend on how the war unfolds and affects exports from Russia and Ukraine over the coming months and years. Impacts on Egypt will also depend on other countries’ responses to global price hikes and cereal shortages. </p>
<p>Egypt can mitigate some of these impacts with short-term actions as outlined above, but major global shocks like the Russia-Ukraine war are also reminders of the need of longer-term reforms and solutions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kibrom Abay receives funding from the USAID for doing research related to agriculture and social protection in Egypt and beyond. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clemens Breisinger receives funding from CGIAR and USAID. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Laborde Debucquet receives funding from United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to study the role of international trade in global and national food security. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Glauber receives funding from United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to study the role of international trade in global and national food security. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lina Alaaeldin Abdelfattah receives funding from the USAID for doing research related to agriculture and social protection in Egypt and beyond.</span></em></p>Egypt is already feeling the impact of the war, which has led to recent cancellation of tenders due to lack of offers, in particular from Ukraine and Russia.Kibrom Abay, Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Clemens Breisinger, Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) David Laborde Debucquet, Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Joseph Glauber, Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Lina Alaaeldin Abdelfattah, Senior Research Assistant, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1571132021-04-19T15:56:14Z2021-04-19T15:56:14ZThere’s a disconnect between research and urban planning in Africa: how to fix it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391674/original/file-20210325-19-zciqvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cairo</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo credit should read PATRICK BAZ/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The African continent is fast on its way to becoming one of the <a href="https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-Highlights.pdf">world’s largest urban hubs</a>. This has spawned growing interest in African urbanisation by both researchers and policy makers. But a great deal of the knowledge – and policy that stems from it – doesn’t adequately respond to the challenges faced by those who govern and are governed on the ground.</p>
<p>We address this problem in our new book <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Reframing-the-Urban-Challenge-in-Africa-Knowledge-Co-production-from-the/Marrengane-Croese/p/book/9780367442200#sup">Reframing the Urban Challenge in Africa</a>. Contributions are from various members of the <a href="https://africanurbanresearchinitiative.net/">African Urban Research Initiative</a>, a pan-African interdisciplinary research network. It is made up of 21 universities, think tanks, research institutions and practitioner agencies concerned with urbanisation and its impact across the continent. </p>
<p>The objective of the initiative is to develop a collaborative network that relies on – and actively nurtures – African expertise and research agendas. The idea is for the network to serve as a platform for both innovation and strategic thinking for Africa’s urban challenges and opportunities.</p>
<p>The book is a concrete attempt to put this approach into practice. Each chapter is based on research that’s been done collaboratively in cities, towns and small settlements across the continent. </p>
<p>One of the major learnings that comes through from the chapters is the importance of close relationships between researchers and people on the ground.</p>
<h2>The gaps</h2>
<p>Africa’s urban challenges are increasingly well known and documented. But the amount of data produced on urban Africa still pales in comparison to other parts of the world. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/user/identity/landing?code=5gC39csbPaHaTnb2sL58zwoWmhgiIgqBaLpre2gU&state=retryCounter%3D0%26csrfToken%3D52c8ee03-eb41-4c14-8392-1d46c17aa8ac%26idpPolicy%3Durn%253Acom%253Aelsevier%253Aidp%253Apolicy%253Aproduct%253Ainst_assoc%26returnUrl%3D%252Fscience%252Farticle%252Fpii%252FS0962629817302184%26prompt%3Dnone%26cid%3Darp-3b1e609a-2a12-4243-a10a-4d5b7b8c3962">Researchers have shown</a> how most data and research available in global urban databases is produced outside the continent. </p>
<p>In addition, because of the way research is funded and conducted most existing work doesn’t find its way back to prospective users. This includes policymakers and local communities. </p>
<p>This has resulted in a growing call for more applied research that bridges the gap between science/research and policy, especially in the field of cities and urban sustainability.</p>
<p>One way of doing this is through the co-production of knowledge.</p>
<h2>Reframing</h2>
<p>Knowledge co-production <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0448-2">has been described as</a> collaborative processes involving diverse types of expertise, knowledge and actors “to produce context-specific knowledge and pathways towards a sustainable future”. </p>
<p>In our book we demonstrate that this is an appropriate approach to urban research into solutions to the challenges facing Africa’s cities. It’s true that there are common urban trends across the continent. Nevertheless, local dynamics, needs, systems, actors and priorities remain highly specific to local contexts. Most of these are undocumented, and are often contested and in flux. </p>
<p>Knowledge co-production represents a way to include voices typically absent in research. In the process new relationships between key stakeholders can be fostered. This generates new knowledge about societal problems. It also renders actionable knowledge for problem-solving.</p>
<p>Contributions to the book are based on research done by researchers and practitioners working in cities across the continent. These range from large metropolitan areas such as Cairo, Johannesburg and Luanda to mid-sized cities (Kumasi, Lusaka, and Alexandria), small cities (Minya, Egypt), and peri-urban spaces (Thika, Kenya).</p>
<p>The research underpinning each chapter was done in collaboration with local communities, governments and other relevant stakeholders on issues that were directly related to local challenges. The result is that chapters cover a range of issues as entry points into wider discussions on urban governance and development in Africa. These range from urban inequality to climate change, the urban food economy, land and housing.</p>
<h2>Lessons and learnings</h2>
<p>Taken together, the chapters provide insight into the diverse set of actors, practices, and experiences involved in urban governance and development across the continent. This means that knowledge co-production takes on different forms and dynamics depending on the city, neighbourhood and settlement.</p>
<p>One of the major learnings is the importance of close relationships between researchers and representatives from local governance structures. In most of the cases these have been fostered and built over long periods of time. In a context where levels of trust – in public institutions as well as among different members of urban communities – are generally low, the importance of these cannot be underestimated. </p>
<p>However, even with these relationships in place, the chapters also demonstrate the challenges of working with local leadership structures, including traditional authorities or local party cadres. These are vital for access to local communities, but also function as gatekeepers. Often, day-to-day cultural and political practices and dynamics, as well as competing agendas or interests determine the scope, availability, and willingness of local leaders and communities to participate in research projects and knowledge co-production. This is true even when projects are aimed at community participation. </p>
<p>Overcoming these hurdles requires a deep understanding of the complexity and workings of local governance structures, as well as the factors, systems, and dynamics that can contribute to building trust and collective action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157113/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sylvia Croese has received funding from the Leading Integrated Research for Agenda 2030 in Africa 2030 programme, implemented by the International Science Council (ISC) in partnership with the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC) with support from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), as well as from the PEAK Urban programme, funded by the UK Research and Innovation Global Challenges Research Fund, grant reference ES/P011055/1.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ntombini Marrengane received funding from the Ford Foundation to support urban knowledge networks in Africa as part of the work she did previously with the African Centre for Cities at the University of Cape Town. </span></em></p>Africa’s urban challenges are increasingly well known and documented. But the amount of data produced on urban Africa still pales in comparison to other parts of the world.Sylvia Croese, Senior research fellow, University of the WitwatersrandNtombini Marrengane, Senior Manager, Bertha Centre for Social Innovation and Entrepreneurship, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1559162021-02-28T17:35:33Z2021-02-28T17:35:33ZIs the Mediterranean Basin really a hotspot of environmental change?<p>The Mediterranean basin, which includes the Mediterranean Sea and the countries it borders, is often referred to as a hotspot for climate change and biodiversity. This image is used to illustrate the multiple risks for the region, its people and its ecosystems. A <a href="https://www.medecc.org/">new analysis of the scientific literature</a> co-authored by 120 scientists concludes that the sum of climate change, pollution, unsustainable use of land and sea, and the invasion of nonnative species has induced these overlapping risks that are often underestimated.</p>
<p>Concerning the existence of the hotspot, the answer is both yes and no. It is no if we mean that the Mediterranean region has warmed faster than other regions. It is true that increases in air temperature have now reached +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) while the global average increase has just exceeded +1°C. However, this is not surprising since all of the world’s land surfaces have <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">warmed more than the atmosphere above the oceans</a>. The strongest warming occurs at high latitudes with a speed <a href="https://theconversation.com/100-degrees-in-siberia-5-ways-the-extreme-arctic-heat-wave-follows-a-disturbing-pattern-141442">twice that of the global average</a>. The Mediterranean, being semi-enclosed and relatively shallow, is warming faster than the global ocean (+0.3°C to +0.4°C per decade vs. approximately <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature">+0.2°C globally</a>. </p>
<p>Temperature is only one among several factors in global change, however. The answer is yes if we consider the cocktail of multiple hazards (see the infographic below) that makes the Mediterranean particularly vulnerable, especially on its eastern and southern shores.</p>
<h2>Terrestrial and marine heat waves</h2>
<p>Warming rates are highest in summer, particularly for maximum temperatures, projected to reach <a href="https://www.medecc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/MedECC_MAR1_SPM_ENG.pdf">+3.3°C for a global warming of +2°C</a>. This will increase the intensity and frequency of heat waves. Cities will experience heat peaks that will be further amplified by several degrees by mineral surfaces, with particularly significant health risks for the most vulnerable city dwellers (children, the elderly and the poor). Their health risks are further amplified by air pollution, which is also exacerbated during hot episodes, for example, in large cities such as Cairo and Barcelona. </p>
<p>The increase in maritime traffic in ports such as Marseilles, to meet the growing demand for tourist cruises, has an <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/luxury-cruise-giant-emits-10-times-more-air-pollution-sox-all-europe%E2%80%99s-cars-%E2%80%93-study">even greater impact on health</a> because it generates peaks of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide when summer temperatures reach their maximum.</p>
<p>In the ocean, conditions are no better. Stronger and more frequent marine heat waves kill sensitive species. The effect of warming on living organisms is amplified by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ocean-acidification-the-forgotten-piece-of-the-carbon-puzzle-50247">acidification of seawater</a> which, due to its higher alkalinity, absorbs more CO<sub>2</sub> than the global ocean. In addition, tropical species arriving through the Suez Canal or the Strait of Gibraltar tend to replace some native species. Coastal areas are heavily impacted by sea-level rise, which is currently accelerating (4.8 cm over 10 years) and which could reach 40 cm to 120 cm in 2100, depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenario. </p>
<h2>Successions of droughts and floods</h2>
<p>The retreat of the coastline has been amplified by a drastic decrease in sedimentary input and by urbanisation. While sea level rise is less of a problem in less populated or high tide areas elsewhere in the world, it poses a huge problem to the densely populated Mediterranean where people, agrosystems, cultural heritage sites and coastal infrastructure are all dangerously near a low tide coastline. The <a href="https://tos.org/oceanography/article/the-2019-flooding-of-venice-and-its-implications-for-future-predictions">“Acqua Alta” in Venice in November 2019</a> with 190 cm of peak tide foreshadows what will happen increasingly more often on the Mediterranean rim during marine submersions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385859/original/file-20210223-14-114rknu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385859/original/file-20210223-14-114rknu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385859/original/file-20210223-14-114rknu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385859/original/file-20210223-14-114rknu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385859/original/file-20210223-14-114rknu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385859/original/file-20210223-14-114rknu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385859/original/file-20210223-14-114rknu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385859/original/file-20210223-14-114rknu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Summary of the conclusions of the first report on the environment and climate change produced by the MedECC network, released in November 2020 and which alerts policy makers and the public.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.medecc.org/">Author provided</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Precipitation is undergoing a paradoxical evolution with an accentuation of drought during the summer months and an increase in heavy rains and thus the risk of flooding in the winter months. An average decrease of 4% in the amount of rain per degree of global warming has been estimated by climate models, affecting up to 180 million people, for whom the lack of water will become more pronounced. </p>
<p>In addition, water demand could increase by 22% to 74% by 2100 due to demographic changes, mass tourism and irrigation for agriculture. This shortage will be most significant in the southern and eastern Mediterranean where the climate is already arid and where three-quarters of the basin’s population live.</p>
<h2>Biodiversity under threat</h2>
<p>The Mediterranean territory is also a biodiversity hotspot with 25,000 plant species, 60% of which are endemic. It provided a “service” to plant and animal species as refuges during the last ice age (when the climate was much colder and the sea level was 120 meters lower). These ecosystems are now under the triple threat of drought, rising sea levels and intensified land use. Forest fires due to heat waves and droughts will be increasingly dramatic despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfires-in-mediterranean-europe-will-increase-by-40-at-1-5-c-warming-say-scientists-104270">prevention efforts and fire response forces</a>. Climate change, pollution and overfishing are having a heavy impact on marine ecosystems, which contain 18% of known species and cover 0.82% of the global ocean.</p>
<p>The Mediterranean is also currently a hotspot of social and political instability, experiencing economic losses, conflicts and significant suffering of populations; even if the causal links with climate change cannot be demonstrated, expected future changes are so great that the risk of increased instability is significant and will require major adaptation efforts. In economic terms, the region depends heavily on tourism (<a href="https://planbleu.org/en/publications/soed-2020-state-of-environment-and-development-in-the-mediterranean/">30% of world tourism</a>) which faces the dual threat of heat waves and environmental degradation on the one hand, and the necessary decarbonisation of transport on the other.</p>
<p>The peak in water consumption by tourists coincides with that of agriculture, which will increasingly require irrigation, exacerbating use conflicts. The current Covid-19 crisis accentuates these developments and, in the short term, makes a paradigm shift inevitable regarding economic development based on <a href="https://www.ademe.fr/sites/default/files/assets/documents/vers_engl_25_oct_bat_web.pdf">perpetual growth, abundant (mostly fossil) energy</a> and waste. Climate change is also an opportunity for a transition to lifestyles that are more respectful of nature.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Kasia Marini, scientific officer for MedECC in Plan bleu (Regional Activity Centre of Mediterranean Action Plan), contributed to the writing of this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155916/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joël Guiot has received funding from the French government and the European Union for his research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wolfgang Cramer has received funding from the French government and the European Union for his research.</span></em></p>The Mediterranean region, with its biodiversity, climate, demographics, and economic activities such as tourism, agriculture and fisheries, is particularly vulnerable to environmental risks.Joël Guiot, directeur de recherche émérite CNRS sur le changement climatique, Aix-Marseille Université (AMU)Wolfgang Cramer, Directeur de Recherche CNRS, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1335382020-03-25T14:22:02Z2020-03-25T14:22:02ZColonial-era treaties are to blame for the unresolved dispute over Ethiopia’s dam<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322523/original/file-20200324-155683-xdx55z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ethiopian Minister of Water, Irrigation and Energy Seleshi Bekele (C) attends a meeting with his Egyptian and Sudanese counterparts, in Khartoum, Sudan, 21 December 2019.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/MARWAN ALI</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Disputes over the filling and operation of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have, once again, <a href="https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2019/10/29/grand-nile-compromise-a-sisyphean-task/">threatened</a> security in North-East Africa. </p>
<p>The dam – a huge project on one of the River Nile’s main tributaries, the Blue Nile in Ethiopia – is designed to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. Its reservoir can hold more than 70 billion cubic metres of water. That’s nearly equal to half of the Nile’s annual flow. Filling the immense reservoir will diminish the flow of the Nile.</p>
<p>Tensions have been particularly acute between Egypt and Ethiopia because <a href="https://books.google.co.ke/books?id=3Ns7DQAAQBAJ&pg=PA80&lpg=PA80&dq=More+than+80%25+of+the+water+reaching+Egypt+comes+from+the+Blue+Nile&source=bl&ots=gW9Oiy8Fsl&sig=hkGZaSOToqULsQoD8S42kHTIlNk&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=More%20than%2080%25%20of%20the%20water%20reaching%20Egypt%20comes%20from%20the%20Blue%20Nile&f=false">more than</a> 80% of the water reaching Egypt comes from the Blue Nile.</p>
<p>Ethiopia is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/02/18/why-ethiopia-egypt-and-sudan-should-ditch-a-rushed-washington-brokered-nile-treaty/">planning to start</a> filling the reservoir in the coming wet season, July 2020. </p>
<p>Since November 2019, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt have held dozens of trilateral talks – on the filling of the reservoir and operation of the dam – which were supported and attended by the US and the World Bank as “observers.” In the latest round of talks, Ethiopia <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/ethiopia-pulls-out-of-washington-meeting-on-nile-dam/1745435">pulled out</a> of the meeting.</p>
<p>Diplomatic spats between Addis Ababa and Cairo are not new. Since the early 1990s, the two countries have held various talks on the Nile but these usually end in a stalemate and the threat of military recourse by Egypt. </p>
<p>Why? Because of the Nile Water Treaties.</p>
<p>During the scramble for Africa, controlling the source of the Nile was a major <a href="https://origins.osu.edu/article/who-owns-nile-egypt-sudan-and-ethiopia-s-history-changing-dam">colonial goal</a> for the British. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326586269_The_Egyptian_Hydro_Hegemony_In_The_Nile_Basin_The_Quest_For_Changing_The_Status_Quo">Various agreements</a> – including the Nile Treaties – where established to do this. </p>
<p>The Nile Water Treaties were agreements between the British (on behalf of its colonies, Sudan, Kenyan, Tanzania and Uganda) and Egypt. They effectively prevent upstream countries from using the Nile’s water without the consent of those downstream. This resulted in a strong Egyptian bias and Egypt continues to try to enforce the treaties today. </p>
<p>Things need to change so that the Nile can benefit all in the region. For instance, Ethiopia has not been able to use the Nile and has relied on rain-fed agriculture which leaves <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB106979937643978400">millions</a> of Ethiopians vulnerable to hunger. </p>
<p>Based on my <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326586269_The_Egyptian_Hydro_Hegemony_In_The_Nile_Basin_The_Quest_For_Changing_The_Status_Quo">research</a> which looks into how the status quo can be changed, I believe that getting rid of the Nile Water Treaties is necessary to resolve the disputes over the Nile’s waters and find an amicable way forward in the dam negotiations. </p>
<h2>Nile treaties</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/612393?seq=1">1902 Anglo-Ethiopian</a> Treaty was an agreement between Great Britain, on behalf of Sudan (under British rule), and Ethiopia. Although the main purpose of the treaty was to determine the boundary between Ethiopia and Sudan, Ethiopia undertook “not to construct or allow to be constructed, any work across the Blue Nile, Lake Tana, or the Sobat, which would arrest the flow of their waters into the Nile except in agreement with His Britannic Majesty’s Government of the Sudan.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.internationalwaterlaw.org/documents/regionaldocs/Egypt_UK_Nile_Agreement-1929.html">The 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty</a> is a bilateral treaty between Egypt and Britain, representing Sudan and its East African colonies (Kenya, Uganda, and Tanganyika). The Treaty recognised the historical and natural rights of Egypt and gave Egypt veto power over any construction projects along the Nile and its tributaries. </p>
<p>In addition to this, a <a href="http://www.salmanmasalman.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Nile1959AgreementEnglish.pdf">Treaty in 1959</a> allocated the bulk of the Nile’s waters to Egypt, 55.5 billion cubic meters (BCM) (or 66%) of the rivers total 84 BCM water flow. Sudan was allocated 18.5 BCM (22%) and the rest, 10 BCM (12%), was left for evaporation. The treaty did not recognise the rights of upstream countries, including Ethiopia whose territory contributes <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jun/19/nile-belongs-to-ethiopia-too">more than</a> 85% of the Nile.</p>
<h2>Sticking point</h2>
<p>The fate of these Nile Water Treaties has been the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ejil/article/21/2/421/374199">main sticking point</a> in negotiations. Upstream states believe a new agreement must replace the Treaties, whereas Egypt insists that any agreement must recognise the treaties and that they continue to be binding.</p>
<p>Upon independence, Britain’s former East African colonies rejected the validity of the Nile Water Treaties, arguing that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02508060.2013.744273">they were not party to them</a> because they had no role in the formation and conclusion of those treaties.</p>
<p>Ethiopia asserts that there is no legal ground to stop Addis Ababa from equitably using the Nile waters. The obligation imposed in the 1902 Anglo- Ethiopian Treaty does not prohibit Ethiopia from using the Nile waters, even without the consent of Britain (now Sudan). But, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/International-Watercourses-Nile-River-Basin/dp/0415657679">what is prohibited</a> is total blockage of the entire flow of the Nile water. </p>
<p>In addition, since Ethiopia did not sign or accede to the other Nile Water Treaties, Ethiopia <a href="https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/1_1_1969.pdf">isn’t legally bound</a> to them.</p>
<h2>Legal instruments</h2>
<p>The current legal instruments being used to challenge Egypt’s hegemony are the <a href="https://www.internationalwaterlaw.org/blog/2017/06/19/the-nile-basin-cooperative-framework-agreement-the-impasse-is-breakable/">Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework (CFA)</a> – negotiated between 10 Nile basin countries to prepare a basin-wide legal framework to regulate the use and management of the Nile River – and the <a href="http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/125941.aspx">Agreement on Declaration of Principles on Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (DOP)</a>. But these currently don’t change the status quo. </p>
<p>The Declaration of Principles - signed in 2015 between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia - reiterated that the Nile’s water should be shared equitably but doesn’t mention the treaties. As for the Cooperative Framework, Egypt refused to sign it because it has the potential of abrogating the Nile Water Treaties.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2019/12/08/sink-or-swim-unlocking-the-nile-impasse/">three possible ways</a> that the Nile treaties can be removed: negotiation, mediation and judicial intervention. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Negotiation through a basin-wide agreement. At the moment this would be the Cooperative Framework Agreement if Egypt and Sudan accede to it. To win Cairo and Khartoum’s support, Ethiopia must concede that the filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and operation of all dams will be managed by a new Nile Basin Commission, envisaged in the agreement.</p></li>
<li><p>Mediation needs to be facilitated by neutral parties – external parties (such as the US and World Bank) have been and will continue to be biased towards Egypt because of its geopolitical advantages. Organs like the African Union and Nile Basin Initiative should be more involved.</p></li>
<li><p>Judicial intervention, by the International Court of Justice, can be used to abrogate the Nile Water Treaties.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In the meantime, it is crucial that Ethiopia make it abundantly clear that it will and should use the Nile waters for consumptive purposes, including irrigation, and that the scope of the forthcoming treaty should be restricted to the Dam.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133538/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mahemud Tekuya has received (in past) funding from Open Society Foundation. </span></em></p>The Nile Treaties prevent upstream countries from using the waters of the Nile without the consent of those downstream. This results in an Egyptian bias.Mahemud Tekuya, JSD/Ph.D candidate, University of the PacificLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1129112019-03-27T10:30:57Z2019-03-27T10:30:57ZHow social media is helping Big Tobacco hook a new generation of smokers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265976/original/file-20190326-36279-kq8543.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Documents show tobacco companies have marketed their products to young people. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-rainbow-hair-woman-smoking-sun-568073914">Canna Obscura/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Big Tobacco is increasingly using social media to find new ways to hook young people on smoking, <a href="https://www.tobaccofreekids.org/press-releases/id_0265">circumventing decades of laws</a> restricting the marketing of traditional cigarettes to minors.</p>
<p>In major cities around the world such as Rio de Janeiro, Cairo, Jakarta and Milan, tobacco companies have been holding extravagant events with names like “<a href="https://www.instagram.com/k.player/">K_Player</a>” and “<a href="https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/redmovenow/">RedMoveNow</a>” that were designed to connect with young people. Often featuring alcohol, live music and attractive hosts, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/health/tobacco-social-media-smoking.html">these lavish events spare no expense</a> as they seek find new buyers for their tobacco products. </p>
<p>The problem? Those party-goers are carefully targeted young influencers, who are encouraged to share photos of their glamorous tobacco-sponsored adventures with friends and followers on social media using appealing hashtags like <a href="https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/iamonthemove/">#iamonthemove</a>, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/decideyourflow/">#decideyourflow</a> and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/mydaynow/">#mydaynow</a>. And although the influencers are over 18, their social media followers can be much younger. </p>
<p>This exploitation of social media’s organic reach is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/health/tobacco-social-media-smoking.html">one of the findings</a> from a global research project <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_TUaYW4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I’ve been working on</a> since 2016 with more than a dozen different scholars. The anti-smoking advocacy group <a href="https://www.tobaccofreekids.org/">Tobacco-Free Kids</a> noticed a lot of photos of young people with cigarettes turning up in their online scans of global social media and asked me to look into it.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_TUaYW4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">My own research</a> focuses on how to rigorously research online culture using natural observational techniques, something that this study definitely required.</p>
<p>My team’s task was to monitor, report upon and analyze the programs behind the hashtagged social media posts of young people smoking. What we learned about tobacco company’s current advertising surprised us. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265977/original/file-20190326-36283-14o6e8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265977/original/file-20190326-36283-14o6e8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265977/original/file-20190326-36283-14o6e8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265977/original/file-20190326-36283-14o6e8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265977/original/file-20190326-36283-14o6e8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265977/original/file-20190326-36283-14o6e8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265977/original/file-20190326-36283-14o6e8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tobacco ads were much bigger in 1996 – literally.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-Domestic-News-New-York-United-/73daa007fae6da11af9f0014c2589dfb/33/0">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Skirting marketing restrictions</h2>
<p>Tobacco companies have always had a knack for finding creative ways to skirt regulations intended to curb marketing to young people. </p>
<p>In 1971, the U.S. Congress <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2009/04/congress-bans-cigarette-ads-on-the-air-april-1-1970-020715">banned tobacco ads</a> from television and radio. In response, companies invested heavily in outdoor advertising and magazines. In 1997, <a href="https://publichealthlawcenter.org/topics/tobacco-control/tobacco-control-litigation/master-settlement-agreement">the Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement</a> banned tobacco on outdoor and billboard ads. In response, <a href="https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Tobacco_industry_sponsorship_of_sporting_events">tobacco money flowed into sponsorships</a> of sports, music and other events. These type of <a href="https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/867690">event sponsorships were banned</a>, with some exceptions, in 2010, at the same time wider restrictions on youth marketing were also introduced.</p>
<p>No matter the medium, the messaging was often the same: find ways to reach new and young potential smokers. As documents from the <a href="http://industrydocuments.library.ucsf.edu/tobacco/docs/gfvn0042">Legacy Tobacco Documents Library</a> reveal, tobacco executives have long believed that the continued survival and success of their companies depends on one thing: <a href="http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/mqu46b00">convincing young people</a> to buy their products. </p>
<p>In 2005, the World Health Organization <a href="https://medium.com/@TobaccoFreeSC/tobacco-companies-targeting-youth-25ba3fff1daa">banned tobacco advertising</a> in 168 signatory countries. By 2010, the U.S. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_Smoking_Prevention_and_Tobacco_Control_Act">had closed a lot</a> of Big Tobacco’s favorite advertising and tobacco loopholes.</p>
<p>With conventional media mostly off-limits, what was Big Tobacco to do? Like the Marlboro Man, the unregulated Wild West of social media rode to the rescue. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/BcSsmNmDebk/?utm_source=ig_embed","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>The perfect marketing medium</h2>
<p>Social media fits Big Tobacco’s advertising needs to a tee. </p>
<p>At least <a href="http://www.pewinternet.org/2018/03/01/social-media-use-in-2018/">88 percent of American youth</a> say they use social media apps like Facebook and Instagram regularly, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/regulate-social-media-its-a-bit-more-complicated-than-that-103797">technologies are notoriously difficult</a> to regulate.</p>
<p>With Tobacco-Free Kids’ financial support, I assembled a growing team of researchers to investigate. Our work is ongoing. </p>
<p>My team collected a plethora of social media data and also conducted interviews with a range of tobacco brand ambassadors, party attendees, influencers and industry insiders from around the world. What we found was an astoundingly effective use of social media by a range of different tobacco companies to connect with the next generation of potential cigarette smokers. </p>
<p>While tobacco companies were careful to abide by the letter of the law – the influencers involved in these posts were all of legal smoking age in their countries – social media has a public setting that makes it an effective and largely unregulated form of broadcast. </p>
<p>Legally, <a href="https://help.instagram.com/517920941588885">anyone age 13 or over</a> can have an Instagram or Facebook account. Our “<a href="https://nsuworks.nova.edu/tqr/vol15/iss5/13/">netnography</a>” – a type of qualitative social media inquiry that focuses on cultural contexts, social structures and deeper meanings – only looked at public posts, images that any 13-year-old with an account could see.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/BYKCuj8lWEF/?utm_source=ig_embed","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Training camps and pop-up parties</h2>
<p>Our investigation uncovered a range of promotional activities and a web of public relations and advertising agencies that cleverly leveraged the strengths of social media to keep tobacco advertising under the radar of existing regulation. </p>
<p>We found tobacco companies in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines recruiting “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/11/business/media/nanoinfluencers-instagram-influencers.html">nano-influencers</a>” of just 2,000-3,000 followers on Facebook and Instagram and encouraging them to post about their tobacco-sponsored adventures. </p>
<p>In Indonesia, we found brand ambassador training camps that lasted two full weeks and were run by the domestic tobacco company Gudang Garam. At these camps, young nano-influencers were paid generous fees, taught about cigarette brands images and then provided lessons about how to better maintain their social media feeds.</p>
<p>Public relations agencies in Uruguay taught their influencers how to take pictures of cigarette packages in ways that best accentuated their brands, offering tips on lighting, hashtags and the best time to post them for maximum impact. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/BgWD_ChHMO8/?utm_source=ig_embed","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Some companies used Facebook pages to recruit young people to attend their parties. After answering a few questions on the Facebook page, for example, responders were enrolled in a mailing list resulting in invitations to cool pop-up “parties and edgier events.” </p>
<p>At those parties, young people were greeted by attractive attendants who offered them cigarettes and encouraged them to pose with floor designs modeled after cigarette brand logos. After snapping pictures, they were encouraged to post them on their social media feed using the party’s decisiveness and action-oriented hashtags. The result was unquestionably a new form of cigarette promotion.</p>
<p>These activities clearly violate the spirit of the existing agreements not to indirectly advertise to young people. You can call it stealth, undercover or guerrilla marketing if you wish. Whatever its name, this is 21st-century cigarette advertising that reaches millions of young people around the world.</p>
<h2>Exploiting social media</h2>
<p>Our research has not only helped shine a light on Big Tobacco’s unchecked use of social media, it has also informed <a href="https://www.tobaccofreekids.org/assets/content/press_office/2018/2018_08_ftc_petition.pdf">a recent petition to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission</a> requesting it to investigate and enforce these novel forms of cigarette advertising. </p>
<p>Although it might be difficult for governments to keep on top of media in these rapidly changing times, they must do so if they hope to prevent <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/smoking">global smoking rates</a> and their consequent health problems from rising once again. Indeed, with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/health/tobacco-e-cigarettes-lobbying-fda.html">leadership change in the Food and Drug Administration</a>, new and tighter regulations on tobacco and vaping in the United States are already being cast into doubt. </p>
<p>Social media provide an incredible advance in communications that democratize communications in unprecedented ways. </p>
<p>However, that openness is easy to exploit by marketers with dubious motives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Kozinets received funding support for the research project mentioned in this article from the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, a Washington, DC based non-profit dedicated to reducing tobacco consumption worldwide. He continues to work pro bono with the organization and proudly supports their championing of tobacco consumption reduction, especially among young people.</span></em></p>Tobacco companies are enlisting the help of social media influencers to promote traditional cigarettes and their brands to young people.Robert Kozinets, Jayne and Hans Hufschmid Chair in Strategic Public Relations and Business Communication, USC Annenberg School for Communication and JournalismLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1033532018-11-04T08:49:30Z2018-11-04T08:49:30ZAgreements that favour Egypt’s rights to Nile waters are an anachronism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243213/original/file-20181031-76390-ln4mz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Nile River during sunset in Luxor, Egypt.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Khaled Elfiqi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Egypt has historically adopted an aggressive approach to the flow of the River Nile. Cairo considers the Nile a national security matter and statements continue to include <a href="https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2017/11/19/egypts-sisi-warns-ethiopia-over-dam-construction-project">threats of military action</a> against Ethiopia should it interfere with the flow as set out in agreements signed in <a href="http://treaties.fco.gov.uk/docs/pdf/1929/TS0017.pdf">1929</a> and another in <a href="https://www.internationalwaterlaw.org/documents/regionaldocs/UAR_Sudan1959_and_Protocol1960.pdf">1959</a>. </p>
<p>The first agreement was made between Great Britain, as the colonial power in eastern African, and Egypt. Cairo was favoured over other riparian countries as an important agricultural asset. In addition, the Egyptian-run Suez Canal was vital for British imperial ambitions.</p>
<p>The British riparian colonies – Sudan, Uganda, Kenya and Tanganyika (now Tanzania) – as well as Ethiopia had no say. </p>
<p>Under the terms, Egypt would receive 48 billion cubic metres water annually and Sudan 4 billion cubic metres. Egypt would not need the consent of upstream states to undertake water projects in its own territories but could veto projects on any tributaries of the Nile in the upstream countries, including the 43,130 square kilometre Lake Victoria. The world’s second largest fresh water lake is fed by direct precipitation and by thousands of streams from Tanzania, Burundi, Uganda and Kenya, all located in the central east of Africa. </p>
<p>To this day Egypt argues that the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and its modified version, the 1959 Agreement, are still <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130266337">valid</a>. The 1959 agreement, signed by Egypt and an independent Sudan, increased Egypt’s share to 55.5 billion cubic metres and Sudan’s to 18.5 billion. </p>
<p>These bilateral agreements totally ignored the needs of other riparian countries including Ethiopia which <a href="https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Egypt-Ethiopia-and-the-Nile-447910">supplies 70% to 80% of the Nile waters</a>. Consequently, none of the other Nile basin countries has ever approved the <a href="https://doi.org/10.5539/jms.v4n3p108">agreements</a>. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the <a href="http://www.nilebasin.org/index.php/nbi/cooperative-framework-agreement">Cooperative Framework Agreement</a> signed by four Nile basin countries in 2010 was strongly <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8682387.stm">rejected by both Egypt and Sudan</a>. </p>
<p>It’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2018.1509564">my argument</a> that the strength of past agreements in modern times and Egypt’s threats to use military force are questionable for two reasons. First, the former colonies are now independent nations and should be part of negotiating a new deal. Secondly, environmental circumstances have changed: precipitation is becoming more intermittent and periods of drought are getting longer. </p>
<h2>Egypt’s security approach</h2>
<p>The threat to use force to defend Egypt’s right to water from the Nile has been a common theme through successive governments.</p>
<p>The current president of Egypt Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has described the flow of Nile to Egypt as <a href="http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/281712/Egypt/Politics-/Egypts-Nile-water-share-a-matter-of-life-or-death,.aspx">a matter of life and death</a>. Badr Abdelatty, Egypt’s ambassador to Germany and former spokesman of the Foreign Ministry, has described the Nile as <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26679225">“a national security issue that can never be compromised on</a>”.</p>
<p>Even Anwar el-Sadat, the president of Egypt in the 1980s, threatened the use of force. He <a href="https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-nile-water-dispute-1597589">stated that</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>if Ethiopia takes any action to block our right to the Nile waters, there will be no alternative for us but to use force. Tampering with the rights of a nation to water is tampering with its life, and a decision to go to war on this score is indisputable in the international community. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>He believed that after signing the Camp David Peace Accords with Israel in 1979, no other problem could again take Egypt to war except water. </p>
<p>The threat of using force has continued. But a security mindset is not going to guarantee Egypt its past share of the waters.</p>
<h2>Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam</h2>
<p>Ethiopia’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26679225">Grand Renaissance Dam</a> constitutes a recent but probably the biggest challenge to Egypt’s militaristic approach to the Nile flow. The dam is a huge project on the headwaters of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia in Benishangul-Gumuz region, 500 km North West of the capital Addis Ababa and about 32 km east of the border of Sudan. </p>
<p>The dam is considered to be the largest hydropower project in Africa and 8th-largest in the world. It’s designed to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. The reservoir can hold <a href="https://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2016/09/contract-awarded-for-studies-of-6-000-mw-grand-renaissance-dam-in-ethiopia.html">more than 70 billion cu metres of water</a> which is <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/015/an530e/an530e.pdf">nearly equal to the flow of the Nile in one year</a>.</p>
<p>The Ethiopian government intends to fill the dam’s immense reservoir in five years. This will have considerable impact on the downstream countries. Even after the reservoir is filled there will not be too much hope for the normalisation of the flow of the Nile because Ethiopia will hold the key to the dam. Normalisation is also not expected because of <a href="https://doi.org/10.5539/jms.v4n3p108">evaporation in the reservoir</a>. </p>
<p>Another challenge to the Nile is the fact that the river is shrinking due to less and more <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/ethiopia-drought-floods-starvation-malnourished-crisis-catastrophe-east-africa-a7901156.html">intermittent precipitation in Ethiopia</a> and in other upstream countries. In addition, Lake Victoria, the source of 20%-30% of the Nile waters, is <a href="https://www.nation.co.ke/lifestyle/1190-126958-gjok4nz/index.html">shrinking at an alarming rate</a>. </p>
<p>What these developments mean is that Egypt’s insistence that the old agreements should remain untouched is no longer practical. </p>
<h2>Normal bargaining process</h2>
<p>Egypt needs to stop issuing threats and turn its attention to normal bargaining processes as the first step towards equitable and reasonable sharing for all the riparian states. </p>
<p>Egypt’s threatening stance doesn’t allow compromise because security is directly connected to people’s lives and their survival. But the growing challenges are unlikely to be met with force.</p>
<p>In addition, Ethiopia needs to recognise Egypt’s need for water too and use its large dam for the regulation of the Nile – not its blockage. And all the Nile basin states must cooperate for the peace and prosperity of Africa.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103353/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Salam Abdulqadir Abdulrahman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The threat to use force to defend Egypt’s right to water from the Nile has been a common theme through successive governments.Salam Abdulqadir Abdulrahman, Head of Political Science Department, College of Law and Politics, University of Human Development, IraqLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/758682017-08-27T09:56:15Z2017-08-27T09:56:15ZWhy the 11 countries that rely on the Nile need to reach a river deal soon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164922/original/image-20170411-26748-gssbja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The River Nile at Cairo, Egypt.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Emad Faied</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than 300 million people rely on the waters of the River Nile. The Nile river basin contains <a href="http://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/PublicationFiles/aria4full.pdf">over</a> 10% of Africa’s landmass, in 11 countries: Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Egypt, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea and Kenya. Many of these countries rely almost exclusively on the Nile as their source of freshwater. </p>
<p>Water demand throughout the region is <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02508060.2013.744273">expected</a> to soar. This is on the back of rising populations as well as ambitious initiatives, particularly in Egypt and Ethiopia which have plans to develop hydroelectric power. </p>
<p>The need for cooperative sustainable management of the trans-boundary water, and related, resources of the Basin has never been more compelling. </p>
<p>The Nile is <a href="https://books.google.co.ke/books?id=mrncsakXkwkC&pg=PA172&lpg=PA172&dq=Transboundary+waters+are+water+resources+that+are+shared+by+two+or+more+sovereign+states.&source=bl&ots=t_1CS8KlTb&sig=ceaxFObcFhoTxH1n5QTA21EZ1x8&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y">one of</a> more than 260 so-called “international drainage basins” throughout the world where water, and related, resources are shared between two or more nation states. </p>
<p>Historically, vying for these scarce resources has been a source of friction as well as a catalyst for peace, as nations are forced to work together. Disparate, but successful, examples of turning adversaries into improbable partners include: the <a href="http://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/6439/Indus">Indus River Treaty</a> between India and Pakistan, which has survived three wars, and the <a href="http://www.internationalwatersgovernance.com/senegal-river-basin.html">Senegal River Treaty</a> where four countries share joint ownership of water related infrastructure. In these examples, finding a way to equitably and reasonably share international waters has been the key to success. </p>
<h2>Grey Area</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/8_3_1997.pdf">UN Watercourses Convention</a> requires every country that shares an international drainage basin to participate in its use, development and protection. But there is a grey area. The convention leaves it up to individual countries to negotiate what they see as equitable and reasonable. </p>
<p>And despite many decades of concerted effort no comprehensive deal between all 11 countries has yet been reached in the case of the Nile River Basin. Meanwhile, tensions have continued to mount including between Egypt and Ethiopia. </p>
<p>Both Egypt and Ethiopia are arguably more heavily dependent on the Nile river basin than any other countries. The Nile is functionally <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=1425796">the only real</a> source of water for Egypt. The preponderance of Egypt’s fast growing population lives in the Nile Valley and nearly all of whom are farmers that rely on the water to grow crops. Yet <a href="https://books.google.co.ke/books?id=3Ns7DQAAQBAJ&pg=PA80&lpg=PA80&dq=More+than+80%25+of+the+water+reaching+Egypt+comes+from+the+Blue+Nile&source=bl&ots=gW9Oiy8Fsl&sig=hkGZaSOToqULsQoD8S42kHTIlNk&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=More%20than%2080%25%20of%20the%20water%20reaching%20Egypt%20comes%20from%20the%20Blue%20Nile&f=false">more than</a> 80% of the water reaching Egypt comes from the Blue Nile which originates in Ethiopia. </p>
<p>Ethiopia’s population <a href="https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/GLEP_a_00099?journalCode=glep#.WOdeJ2SGPs0">growth rate</a> is equal to or greater than Egypt’s, establishing an equally compelling need for water for increased food production.</p>
<p>The urgency of reaching an agreement to reasonably and equitably share benefits on the Nile Basin can’t be overstated. Apart from the need to manage a precious resource carefully, the very process of reaching cooperation <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1648630">would create</a> a stabilising and more transparent atmosphere in the countries that depend on the Nile basin. It <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211464513000614">would</a> widen political participation, build political stability and spread confidence between states. This is important given that the potential for friction will likely continue to increase as the Nile faces new challenges.</p>
<h2>New challenges</h2>
<p>Fresh <a href="http://www.progreendiploma.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Nile-RIver-Water-Quality-Management-Study-1.pdf">evidence</a> now points to the fact that both the political and ecological situation in the Nile basin is becoming more precarious. </p>
<p>Water quality appears to be worsening, there are growing water quantity issues and agricultural yields appear to be falling. These challenges are exacerbated by the looming completion of various dams on both the Blue Nile and the White Nile. The biggest of these is the <a href="http://www.water-technology.net/projects/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-africa/">Grand Renaissance Dam</a> in Ethiopia.</p>
<p>There are also new, and increasing, concerns over the potential impact of climate change on the Nile river basin. Recent studies point to two contradictory scenarios that would require completely opposite adaptation strategies: one entails floods and increased runoff, the other water scarcity and possible drought. </p>
<p>At least <a href="http://cairoclimatetalks.net/sites/default/files/Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change%20on%20Egypt%20and%20the_0.pdf">one study</a> suggests that an increase in global temperatures will cause more evaporation, leading to greater water scarcity. Another <a href="http://cairoclimatetalks.net/sites/default/files/Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change%20on%20Egypt%20and%20the_0.pdf">study</a> suggests increased evaporation in Egypt will result in increased precipitation in the Ethiopian highlands. This could lead to increased runoff downstream, in Egypt, which may cause floods. </p>
<p>These uncertainties are intensified by the fact that most of the nation states sharing the Nile Basin are generally <a href="http://www.unwatercoursesconvention.org/images/2012/10/Nile-Basin-Regime-Does-Law-Matter.pdf">more likely</a> to be increasingly “water scarce” by 2050. This is due to climate change and increased water demand due to population growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164920/original/image-20170411-26710-17eo8rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164920/original/image-20170411-26710-17eo8rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164920/original/image-20170411-26710-17eo8rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164920/original/image-20170411-26710-17eo8rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164920/original/image-20170411-26710-17eo8rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164920/original/image-20170411-26710-17eo8rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164920/original/image-20170411-26710-17eo8rj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">View at Nubian village, irrigated fields and cruise ship on Nile River.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On top of all these challenges many Nile countries, particularly Egypt and Ethiopia, continue to have ambitious plans to use more water as well as develop hydroelectricity projects along the Nile. </p>
<p>For example Egypt has embarked on the <a href="http://www.water-technology.net/projects/mubarak/">New Valley Project</a>. This is designed to redirect approximately 4.94 billion cubic metres of water to create and maintain an attractive, habitable area in the Western Desert. </p>
<p>These developments underscore the need to successfully design institutions and legal frameworks, using adaptive management, for the shared water resources. Adaptive management is a process which aims to reducing uncertainty over time via system monitoring. </p>
<h2>Moving forward</h2>
<p>There <a href="http://www.orangesenqurak.com/UserFiles/File/OtherV2/Stakeholder%20Participation%20in%20Transboundary%20Basins%20WRC%202011.pdf">is no</a> “one-size-fits-all” approach to these challenges. But what’s clear is that such agreements can protect the environment whilst also stabilising and enhancing <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-law-of-international-watercourses-9780199202539?cc=ke&lang=en&">security</a> at the regional level.</p>
<p>Now is the time for all 11 Nile sharing nation states and the international development community to pull together. They must redouble their efforts to successfully establish and maintain a Nile Basin wide cooperative framework agreement and a Nile Basin Commission. This is not a panacea for all that ails the Nile Basin. However, these initiatives would clearly help focus the region on establishing a nascent international river basin organisation that could eventually embrace larger water and energy governance solutions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75868/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Kyle Paisley has been an adviser to, among others, the Nile Basin Initiative, the United Nations Department of Political Affairs Mediation Support Team and the World Bank Group. The opinions he expresses are entirely his own and may, or may not, reflect the opinions of those entities.</span></em></p>The urgency of an agreement to reasonably and equitably share benefits on the Nile Basin can’t be overstated. It would create a a transparent atmosphere in the countries that depend on the Nile.Richard Kyle Paisley, Director, International Waters Governance Initiative IAR, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/653532016-09-19T19:27:19Z2016-09-19T19:27:19ZAmerica’s legendary ignorance about Africa persists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137592/original/image-20160913-4963-3gukhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Americans' ignorance about Africa persists despite efforts by presidents Kennedy and Obama to forge stronger ties with the continent.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jason Reed/Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fifty six years ago, John F. Kennedy made 479 references to Africa during the US presidential campaign. He observed that America had lost ground on the continent because of failures to meet the <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/JFK-and-African-Independence.aspx">“need and aspirations of the African people”</a>. </p>
<p>President Kennedy charted a new path in US-Africa relations. He created the <a href="https://www.peacecorps.gov/about/">Peace Corps</a>, and the United States Agency for <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/">International Development</a>. And, unlike his predecessors, he began to show more respect and dignity for <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/504281">African leaders</a>. </p>
<p>To African people, Kennedy was the “great one,” and a <a href="https://www.questia.com/library/journal/1P3-3477237961/making-sense-of-fifty-years-of-u-s-peace-corps-service">“friend of the coloured man everywhere”</a>. He began the process to change the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Ugly-American-Eugene-Burdick/dp/0393318672">“ugly American”</a> image which characterised his predecessor, Dwight Eisenhower’s, foreign policy towards the Third World. </p>
<p>But the new directions initiated by Kennedy were short-lived as his successors reverted to previous policies. While Lyndon Johnson labelled Africans <a href="https://books.google.co.ke/books?id=WsIIDJlKm6sC&pg=PA147&lpg=PA147&dq=Lyndon+Johnson+Africa+cannibals&source=bl&ots=bQBLUppsTF&sig=yZPq5JA4MdgbQH2LsdCke68rt3M&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Lyndon%20Johnson%20Africa%20cannibals&f=false">“cannibals”</a> , Richard Nixon ridiculed blacks as <a href="http://www.alternet.org/story/17422/the_nixon_tapes,_racism_and_the_republicans">“genetically inferior”</a> to whites. And, Ronald Reagan’s <a href="http://africasacountry.com/2013/02/ronald-reagans-africa/">pro-Apartheid policy</a> of Constructive Engagement was consistent with his overall African policy. </p>
<p>Though more recently during President Barack Obama’s presidency there was a shift in policy, there continues to be immense and sometimes shameful ignorance in <a href="http://atlantablackstar.com/2015/07/09/africans-create-twitter-hashtag-showcase-positive-images-continent/">America about Africa</a>.</p>
<p>Popular notions range from seeing the continent through a monolithic lens to depicting it as suffocated with disease, tribal wars, famine, corruption, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/01/africa-history-western-eyes">cannibals</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/narco-state-or-failed-state-guinea-bissau-and-the-framing-of-africa-62118">crime</a>. </p>
<p>Even the Peace Corps and university students, both a hallmark of American idealism, were not immune. While some Peace Corps officials talked of “primitive mud huts” all over Africa’s landscape, college students imagined the region to be a</p>
<blockquote>
<p>place of destruction, primitive conditions, and injustice, and where people practice <a href="http://ecommons.udayton.edu/hst_fac_pub/119/">strange religions</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Though scholars have long discarded those images and corrected the historical record, the negative perceptions have persisted, and continue to dominate the thinking of major <a href="http://www.developmenteducationreview.com/issue4-focus2">political leaders in America</a>.</p>
<p>In an increasingly interconnected and technological global environment, ignorance of Africa is no longer acceptable. This, especially from major political leaders. Yet, examples of such ignorance are evident in the current American <a href="http://buzzkenya.com/list-of-african-countries-that-will-leave-the-u-s-if-donald-trump-becomes-president;%20http://www.theroot.com/articles/politics/2016/04/donald_trump_forgets_africa_during_foreign_policy_speech//">presidential campaign</a>. Neither the Republican nominee <a href="http://heavy.com/news/2016/08/read-donald-trump-full-transcript-speech-foreign-policy-address-remarks-prepared-august-15/">Donald J. Trump</a> nor the democratic nominee <a href="http://time.com/4355797/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-foreign-policy-speech-transcript/">Hillary R. Clinton</a> has articulated any concrete vision for an African policy.</p>
<p>During the primary season, Africa came up and when it did it was either in the context of terrorism or as an afterthought. There seems to be little realisation by both candidates that in the current fluid and interdependent global environment, Africa has emerged as a strategic partner in trade, peace, and security. A case in point is the US African Command which collaborates with African governments and regional organisations to <a href="http://www.africom.mil/about-the-command">combat terrorism</a>. </p>
<h2>Africa in perspective</h2>
<p>Africa, <a href="http://geography.about.com/od/lists/a/largecontinent.htm">the second largest continent</a>, is over three times the size of the US and has <a href="https://www.countries-ofthe-world.com/countries-of-africa.html">54 nations</a>. It is the ancestral home of <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/00">roughly 13%</a> of America’s population; namely African-Americans.</p>
<p>Its complex cultures, languages, and religions have contributed to global cultures. It is the ancestral <a href="https://theconversation.com/species-without-boundaries-a-new-way-to-map-our-origins-42646">site of humankind</a>. It is home to renowned economic, social and educational institutions including the <a href="http://www.uct.ac.za/apply/welcome/english/">University of Cape Town</a>, <a href="http://www.ug.edu.gh/">University of Ghana</a>, and the <a href="http://ui.edu.ng/">University of Ibadan</a>. Its other impressive institutions include the <a href="http://dangote.com/">Dangote Group</a> businesses and the <a href="http://kofiannaninstitute.org/about-us/">Kofi Annan Institute</a> for Conflict Transformation. It is also the land of vital minerals such as coltan, essential for the world’s software and telecommunication industry. </p>
<p>Africa’s raw materials are vital to the global economic system. Its rising consumer culture has transformed the continent into a major market for <a href="http://www.africa-business.com/features/china_africa_business.html">manufactured goods</a>. </p>
<p>Two years ago at the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/us-africa-leaders-summit">US-African Leaders Summit</a> President Obama called for the creation of “genuine partnership” in US-Africa relations. Africa is now a key battleground for the US and China where both nations are locked in a struggle to gain a <a href="http://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2015/03/24/china-beating-us-in-race-to-invest-in-africa">competitive edge</a>.</p>
<p>From Cairo to Cape Town, China through its <a href="http://www.focac.org/eng/">Forum of China Africa Cooperation</a> and other endeavours, has <a href="http://www.africa.com/u_sinvestment_in_africa_making_up_for_lost_ground/">surpassed US investments</a> on the continent. </p>
<h2>Embracing Africa</h2>
<p>Engaging Africa in a much more serious way, particularly within the foreign policy discourse in the American presidential campaign, would be an important step. Both candidates must build on the foundation started by Kennedy and later continued by Obama which sees Africa as a “fundamental part of our interconnected world,” and seek a relationship based on mutual “responsibility” and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/us-africa-leaders-summit">“respect”</a>. </p>
<p>Both things are doable. Trump and Clinton should articulate a concrete vision and means by which they will implement it. Development is not just about economic imperatives, and other quantitative things, it also entails informed knowledge. </p>
<p>The time has come for developed nations to eliminate the large pockets of ignorance which exist in their society about Africa and other peoples. Globalisation demands that people ask new questions, seek new answers, and think differently. For all the challenges, African communities are coming together. It is, indeed, a continent on the rise and can no longer be ignored or marginalised.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65353/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julius A. Amin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The time has come for developed nations to eliminate the large pockets of ignorance which exist in their societies about Africa and other peoples. Globalisation demands that people think differently.Julius A. Amin, Professor, Department of History, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/534612016-01-25T06:19:38Z2016-01-25T06:19:38ZFive years on, the spirit of Tahrir Square has been all but crushed<p>Five years ago, the chant “El‑sha’ab, yureed, isqat el‑nizam!" ("the people want the fall of the regime!”) resounded through the streets of Cairo, marking the start of a popular uprising that saw one of the region’s longest-standing dictators deposed in just 18 days. </p>
<p>The so-called Egyptian revolution of 2011, part of the wider trend of the Arab Springs or <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/general/2011/04/20114483425914466.html">Arab Awakening</a>, was seen by many as being as significant as the fall of the Berlin Wall because of its potential implications for both the country and the region. However, five years on, it seems as if little has changed in Egypt – and the country’s proud revolutionary spirit has been almost completely wiped out. </p>
<p>The demands made by Tahrir Square’s revolutionaries haven’t been met – and in some cases they have been downright betrayed.</p>
<p>The uprising was only in part triggered by the first spasm of the Arab Awakenings, <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-years-on-tunisias-jasmine-revolution-continues-from-the-ground-up-52848">Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution</a>. Rather, it was an outburst of popular grievances that had been building up for decades in a country with a long history of both military authoritarianism and “street politics”. </p>
<p>Hosni Mubarak’s regime was an exemplary case of durable authoritarianism, allowing its citizens just enough political space to keep direct threats to the regime at bay. But this admittedly very limited space nonetheless made the country’s population extremely competent with the practice of politics and dissent in the street. Essentially, a strong regime was <a href="http://stealthishijab.com/2011/05/31/the-praxis-of-the-egyptian-revolution/">deposed by an even stronger society</a>. </p>
<p>This can be seen in the fact that in January 2011, Egyptians were not just calling for the fall of the regime: louder than all the other chants was <a href="http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/2015/01/25/Freedom-bread-dignity-Has-Egypt-answered-Jan-25-demands-.html">the call</a> for “bread, freedom, and (human) dignity”. It was estimated at the time that about 40% of Egyptians lived below the poverty line; even higher percentages <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110201013309/http://www.france24.com/en/20110125-egypt-braces-nationwide-protests">had to rely on subsidised goods</a> and 2.5m aged 20-24 <a href="http://cliodynamics.ru/download/Korotayev_Zinkina_Egyptian_Revolution_MESOJ_2011.pdf">were unemployed</a>. </p>
<p>But looking at the statistics today, it’s clear that levels of poverty and unemployment have drastically worsened since 2011 – and especially since president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s dictatorial regime took the reins.</p>
<h2>Bread, freedom and dignity</h2>
<p>When the uprising began, the revolutionaries in Tahrir Square were quick to issue an <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/01/egyptian-activists-action-plan-translated/70388/">official statement containing their main demands</a>. They called for the removal of the Mubarak government and the abolition of the notorious Emergency Law, freedom, justice, the formation of a new, non-military government and the constructive administration of all of Egypt’s resources. </p>
<p>The popular struggle for dignity and a removal of an ancient and discriminatory status quo seemed to succeed at first. Mubarak was deposed on February 11 2011, and the square resounded with euphoric chants: “Lift your head up, you are an Egyptian”, and, “We can breathe fresh air, we can feel our freedom”.</p>
<p>But the elation was short lived. Five years on and one <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/world/middleeast/egypt.html">coup d’état</a> later, Egypt is still very much in the grip of a military dictatorship, while most of the six demands put forward by the revolutionaries have yet to be met.</p>
<p>The need for “bread, freedom, and (human) dignity” has arguably never been more urgent. Youth unemployment rates <a href="http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2015/08/11/26-3-of-youth-unemployed-51-2-suffer-poverty/">rose to 26.3%</a> in 2015, while more than a quarter of Egypt’s 85m-odd people still live below the poverty line. </p>
<p>As for “the formation of a new, non-military government with the interest of the Egyptian people at heart”, the regime of al-Sisi is firmly in the country’s tradition of military dictatorships. Most of his cabinet members and ministers <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/egypt-sisi-swears-government-150919132205044.html">hold the same posts they did under Mubarak</a>. Al-Sisi has arguably even succeeded in creating a regime even more repressive and brutal than his predecessor’s. Mubarak’s “deep state” has not only endured, but in fact seems reinvigorated, while Egypt’s former president has also been released from jail despite the fact that <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23802342">he is still facing charges of corruption and murder</a>.</p>
<h2>Cracking down</h2>
<p>The saga of the Emergency Law is equally bleak. After it expired on May 31 2012, it was briefly re-imposed by the acting president Adly Mansour; it has since been substituted by the controversial Assembly Law of 2013, which also tightly restricts freedom of all sorts. </p>
<p>It not only heavily limits freedom of assembly, but also gives authorities the power to disperse any meeting of “public nature” of more than ten people in a public space, allows police to forcibly disperse any public meeting or protest, and sets heavy prison sentences for vague offences such as “<a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/11/26/egypt-deeply-restrictive-new-assembly-law">attempting to influence the course of justice</a>”.</p>
<p>Freedom of speech and expression have never been so tightly policed. In the aftermath of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/verdict-in-al-jazeera-trial-shows-regimes-contempt-for-press-freedom-in-egypt-28349">trial of three al-Jazeera journalists</a>, Egypt was recently named the world’s <a href="http://www.ihrc.org.uk/publications/briefings/11123-the-never-ending-story-of-egypt-al-sisi-and-the-military-legacy">third deadliest country for journalists</a>, just behind Syria and Iraq. The authorities have detained, charged, or sentenced at least 41,000 people between July 2013 and May 2014 alone. Hundreds more have been <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/06/08/egypt-year-abuses-under-al-sisi">sentenced to death</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/im-one-of-hundreds-sentenced-to-death-in-egypt-the-us-is-concerned-thats-not-enough-42561">tried in absentia</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, the demand for better public administration has been left unaddressed; al-Sisi’s celebrated US$6 billion renovation of the Suez Canal has been almost entirely funded with tax payers’ money, <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/07/egypt-suez-canal-corridor-project-development.html#">redirecting funds</a> originally earmarked for social services and healthcare.</p>
<p>The ultimate result of all the relentless brutality and pressure from the authorities since 2011 is that Egypt’s proud revolutionary spirit has been almost entirely wiped out. The return to military authoritarianism has in fact left many Egyptians apathetic towards the political state of their own country, a sad comedown from the sentiment behind the original Tahrir Square protests. </p>
<p>In December 2015, al-Sisi responded to rumours of another “Day of Rage” on the fifth anniversary of January 25 by saying: “Why am I hearing calls for another revolution? Why do you want to ruin Egypt? I came by your will and your choice and not despite it” – <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/feb/11/fury-egypt-mubarak-refuses-to-leave">an eerie echo of Mubarak’s own words before he was removed in 2011</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct the phrase “El‑sha’ab, yureed, isqat el‑nizam!”.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53461/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucia Ardovini receives funding from the ESRC.</span></em></p>The demands of the Tahrir Square protests could scarcely have been clearer – and the crackdown since 2011 could hardly have been more galling.Lucia Ardovini, ESRC PhD candidate, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/509972015-11-24T04:30:11Z2015-11-24T04:30:11ZNorth Africa: small glimmers of light in bid to stop violence against women<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102810/original/image-20151123-18264-zm66n6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tunisian women marking International Women's Day. The country scores poorly when it comes to women's safety.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Mohamed Messara</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>North Africa holds the dubious “honour” of being among the world’s <a href="http://www.afrobarometer.org/press/african-women-lag-behind-men-activism-fear-campaign-violence">worst regions</a> for gender-based discrimination, sexual harassment and violence against women.</p>
<p>In 2012 Moroccan teen Amina Filali’s suicide made international headlines. She killed herself after being forced to marry her <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13629387.2013.858033">rapist</a>. A full 99.3% of Egyptian <a href="http://www.dgvn.de/fileadmin/user_upload/DOKUMENTE/English_Documents/Sexual-Harassment-Study-Egypt-Final-EN.pdf">women</a> have encountered sexual harassment. Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt and Morocco rank 123rd, 126th, 129th, and 133rd out of 142 in the World Economic Forum’s 2014 <a href="http://reports.weforum.org/global-gender-gap-report-2014/">Global Gender Gap’s</a> consideration of state resource distribution. And Morocco and Egypt are in the <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/table-4-gender-inequality-index">bottom two-fifths</a> of the United Nations Development Program’s <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/gender-inequality-index-gii">Gender Inequality Index</a>.</p>
<p>The United Nations’ <a href="http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/54/134">International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women</a> calls attention to the continued need for work on its 1993 <a href="http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/48/104">declaration</a>.</p>
<p>The stories and statistics paint a bleak picture, and a great deal is yet to be done. The sad reality is that the world is generally not safe for women. But some local projects in North Africa provide a glimpse of hope and suggest a way forward.</p>
<h2>Harnassing modern and ancient practices</h2>
<p>Many women in water-poor regions travel long distances to fetch water, often in <a href="http://www.unicef.org/esaro/7310_Gender_and_WASH.html">dangerous areas</a> and under <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22325022">threat of violence</a> if the chore is not completed <a href="https://books.google.co.ma/books?id=KMgZBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA116&lpg=PA116&dq=%22increased+the+possibility+of+socially+justified+violence%22&source=bl&ots=1gGFuGwj5_&sig=T0DEDtCMRTpO_nC_fwSvlETJ48g&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=%22increased%20the%20possibility%20of%20socially%20justified%20violence%22&f=false">satisfactorily</a>. Too frequently, though, programmes seeking to ease this burden for women fail to consider that time away from the house may also be an <em>escape</em> from household labour and domestic abuse. Importantly, it gives women an opportunity to be in women-only spaces. </p>
<p>And being resource gatekeepers is a source of power. <a href="http://www.unwater.org/downloads/unwpolbrief230606.pdf">Managing</a> food, water, and other natural resources is one of the few ways women may be able to materially exert their agency.</p>
<p>One local non-governmental organisation in Morocco is building women’s empowerment into their development projects by considering these issues from the very start. Dar Si Hmad’s <a href="http://www.darsihmad.org/fog-harvesting/">fog project</a> combines <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3357847/">modern technology</a> and an <a href="http://www.aeclim.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=249%3Ala-captacion-del-agua-de-la-niebla-en-la-isla-de-tenerife-2005&catid=32%3Alibros-cientificos-y-de-divulgacion&Itemid=70&lang=es">ancient practice</a> to harvest potable water from the fog that drifts over the Anti-Atlas Mountains. Recognising women’s privileged ancestral role as water guardians, the project has also enhanced women’s technology <a href="http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0023/002343/234325E.pdf">capabilities</a> so they can report data and monitor their water <a href="http://gradworks.umi.com/36/21/3621317.html">system</a> via SMS message.</p>
<p>Reliable taps have been installed which means that women in Amazigh villages now no longer have to walk five kilometres at 4am to fill containers of water. To ensure the women are able to continue having conversations that used to occur near the wells, Dar Si Hmad is pursuing other avenues. In female-focused spaces with local facilitators, rural women explore projects such as <a href="http://thearganproject.com/">argan co-ops</a> as routes to economic empowerment and personal satisfaction.</p>
<h2>Cartoons for commuters</h2>
<p>The bustling streets of Cairo are at first glance a polar opposite to rural Morocco. Yet the daily dilemmas faced by women in both areas are eerily familiar: the constant critique of clothing, the fear of leaving the house alone, the likelihood of being catcalled, even in groups.</p>
<p>In Cairo, Nihal Saad Zaghloul founded <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Imprint.Movement.eg"><em>Bassma</em>, The Imprint Movement</a>, three years ago in an effort to rebuild the city as a safe space free of discrimination and violence. She was spurred into action after watching helplessly while her friend was sexually assaulted in the middle of Egypt’s Tahrir Square. This was something <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/05/egypt-women-rape-sexual-assault-tahrir-square">all too common</a> in the iconic home of the 2011 uprisings. </p>
<p>The initiative’s most recent project uses cartoons to challenge commuters in Cairo’s busiest metro stations. Artist Ahmed Nady’s scenes depict the everyday moments of sexual harassment against Egyptian women. The cartoons force people to see and consider what these seemingly small acts actually mean.</p>
<p>The storytelling power of drawing is used to make people stop and think rather than shrug off a tagline or statistic. The colourful panels are intended to make people in the heart of their commute – one of the most likely times for harassment and assault – see how their behaviour impedes women’s right to do something as simple as shopping for food.</p>
<p>The comic campaign asks commuters a question: <a href="http://us11.campaign-archive2.com/?u=79bc10c84cbc653c94614345f&id=5ac8b631de">“What Will You Do?”</a>. This is a direct call to action.</p>
<p>Locally initiated and informed projects such as these are vital to the prevention of violence against women through sustained education, empowerment and security.</p>
<p>These local efforts are supported by global initiatives like the UN’s UNiTE to End Violence against <a href="http://www.un.org/en/women/endviolence/">Women</a> campaign, which calls for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/16days">#16days</a> of attention to violence against women. During this period scholars, activists, policymakers, and communities will work toward a world free from violence against women. </p>
<p>As <em>Bassma</em> says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Sexual harassment doesn’t harm her alone, it harms us all.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Violence against women is everybody’s problem. It will take everybody to solve it. Together, local projects and global attention can make violence against women a thing of the past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca L. Farnum is a PhD Candidate at King's College London funded through an EPA Marshall Scholarship. She has spent months studying and researching in Morocco and Egypt, including participant ethnography with Dar Si Hmad. She is connected with The Imprint Movement through her participation in the American Middle Eastern Network for Dialogue at Stanford (AMENDS), a network of young social change activists across the Middle East and North Africa.</span></em></p>The world is generally not safe for women. But some projects in North Africa provide a glimpse of hope as the world marks the UN’s International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women.Rebecca L. Farnum, PhD Researcher in Environmental Peacebuilding, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.