tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/cop21-23020/articlesCOP21 – The Conversation2023-11-22T16:09:08Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183852023-11-22T16:09:08Z2023-11-22T16:09:08ZEarth in the Anthropocene: how did we get here? Can we limit the damage?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561042/original/file-20230531-21796-ooshjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dans un monde aux ressources finies, les effets des activités humaines sur l’environnement hypothèquent gravement le futur des générations à venir. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2000, Nobel Prize-winning atmospheric chemist Paul J. Crutzen proposed that the epoch known as the Holocene, which started some 11,700 years ago, had reached its end. To describe our current era, he employed the term <em>anthropocene</em>, originated earlier by ecologist Eugene F. Stoermer. Together the <a href="http://www.igbp.net/publications/globalchangemagazine/globalchangemagazine/globalchangenewslettersno4159.5.5831d9ad13275d51c098000309.html">two scientists</a> asserted that humans’ collective influence on the Earth system was so profound that it was altering the planet’s geological and ecological trajectory. According to them, humanity had entered a new geologic era.</p>
<h2>The pivotal juncture of the steam engine</h2>
<p>This declaration prompted considerable debate. The most obvious remains the question of when the Anthropocene actually began. The initial proposal was 1784, when Englishman James Watt patented his steam engine, the defining emblem of the advent of the Industrial Revolution. Indeed, this choice is consistent with the significant rise in the concentrations of several greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, as evidenced by data collected from ice cores.</p>
<p>From the perspective of other scientists, humanity’s recent history has followed a trajectory they describe as the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053019614564785">“great acceleration”</a>. From around 1950, the main indicators of the global socioeconomic system and the Earth system began to show a distinct trend of exponentiality.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"605003636700286976"}"></div></p>
<p>Ever since, humanity’s ecological footprint has continually grown, now existing in a whole slew of interconnected forms: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>drastically rapid and intense changes in climate; </p></li>
<li><p>widespread damage to the entire web of life due to humans encroaching on ecosystems and loading them with radically new substances (such as synthetic chemicals, plastics, pesticides, endocrine disruptors, radionuclides and fluorinated gases); </p></li>
<li><p>biodiversity collapse at an unprecedented speed and scale (which some believe will usher in the sixth mass extinction, the previous one being the demise of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago);</p></li>
<li><p>multiple disturbances in biogeochemical cycles (specifically those that govern water, hydrogen and phosphorous).</p></li>
</ul>
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<h2>Who is responsible?</h2>
<p>Another debate regarding the Anthropocene was advanced by Swedish scientists <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053019613516291">Andreas Malm and Alf Hornborg</a>. They note that Anthropocene narrative holds the entire human species equally accountable. Even when placing the advent of industry in a few nations as the start of the Anthropocene, many authors assert that the ultimate cause of society’s rising dependence on fossil fuels is part of a gradual evolutionary process, originating with our ancestors’ mastery of fire (at least 400,000 years ago).</p>
<p>Malm and Hornborg also stress that the use of umbrella terms like <em>human beings</em> and <em>humankind</em> assumes that it is an inevitable result of our species’ natural propensity for resource exploitation. For the two researchers, this naturalisation conceals the social dimension of the fossil fuel regime that has spanned the last two centuries.</p>
<p>After all, the human race did not vote unanimously to adopt the coal-fired steam engine or later oil- and gas-based technologies. Equally, the trajectory of our species was not decided by representatives in power, who themselves were not elected based on natural characteristics.</p>
<p>According to Malm and Hornborg, it has actually been social and political conditions that have created, time and again, the possibility for individuals with enough capital to make lucrative investments that contributed to the collapse of our climate. And these individuals have almost invariably been white, middle- and upper-class men.</p>
<h2>Who emits what?</h2>
<p>The Anthropocene as applied to the scale of all humankind overlooks another major point: the role of intraspecies inequality in climate upheaval and ecological imbalance.</p>
<p>Currently, the 10% of the world’s inhabitants who emit the most greenhouse gases (GHGs) are responsible for <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00955-z">48% of all global emissions</a>, whereas the 50% who emit the smallest amount account for a mere 12% of global emissions. Estimates place <a href="http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/ChancelPiketty2015.pdf">the richest 1%</a> among the biggest individual emitters on the planet (mainly coming from the United States, Luxembourg, Singapore and Saudi Arabia), who each emit more than 200 tons of CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent annually. At the other end of the spectrum are the poorest individuals from Honduras, Mozambique, Rwanda and Malawi, whose emissions are 2,000 times lower, coming in at around 0.1 tons of CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent per head per year.</p>
<p>This close link between wealth and carbon footprint implies a shared, but not equal, responsibility, which is ill-suited to the sweeping categorisation of the Anthropocene.</p>
<h2>From British coal to American oil</h2>
<p>This criticism takes on greater significance when we consider the historical perspective, given that climate disturbance is the result of cumulative GHG emissions. Take the case of the United Kingdom: we might ask why it should be spearheading the fight against climate change when it currently represents only around 1% of global carbon emissions. But this overlooks the fact that the country has contributed to 4.5% of global emissions since 1850, making it the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change/">eighth-biggest polluter</a> in history.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fossil fuel use is responsible for emitting CO₂, the primary cause of global warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/GrmwVnVSSdU">Zbynek Burival/Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In terms of the exponential acceleration of the trajectory of the Earth system over the past 200 years, contributions have widely differed among the nations of the world and their inhabitants. As respective stalwarts of global economic development during the 19th and 20th centuries, the United Kingdom and United States now owe a monumental <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30196-0/fulltext">ecological debt</a> toward other nations. Coal fuelled the United Kingdom’s endeavours of imperial domination, while this same role was (and continues to be) played by oil in the United States.</p>
<h2>Survival or otherwise</h2>
<p>Clarity is important when it comes to the thorny issue of each nation’s historical contribution to climate shift, so it is worth bearing in mind that the GHG emissions and overall environmental impact of a given country or person are chiefly determined by the rate at which they consume goods and services. By and large, it is unrealistic for those living in rich countries to think that they can “live green”. Furthermore, for all the quantitative data at our disposal, there is nothing that indicates either the absolute necessity – or, by contrast, the utter futility – of measuring a kilogram of carbon dioxide in the same way for everyone across the board.</p>
<p>For some, emitting slightly more greenhouse gases comes down to a question of survival, perhaps representing the fuel required to cook a portion of rice or build a roof. For others, it amounts only to purchasing yet another gadget for a few more hours of entertainment. Some argue that reducing the world’s population would be an effective means of combating climate disruption (and all other the environmental disturbances), but a simpler solution would be to prevent the ultra-rich from continuing to pursue their shamelessly climate-destroying lifestyles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yachts in Cannes harbour.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pxhere.com/en/photo/614085">Pxhere</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By constructing the abstract notion of a uniformly affected “humankind”, the dominant discourse around the Anthropocene suggests that the responsibility is shared equally by all of us. In the Amazon, the Yanomami and Achuar peoples get by without a single gram of fossil fuel, surviving through hunting, fishing, foraging and subsistence agriculture. Should they feel as responsible for climate change and biodiversity collapse as the world’s richest industrialists, bankers and corporate solicitors?</p>
<p>If the Earth really has entered a new geological epoch, the responsibilities of each nation and individual differ too greatly across space and time for us to consider “the human species” as a suitable abstraction for shouldering the burden of guilt.</p>
<p>Quite apart from all these debates and disputes, climate disruption and biodiversity loss call for immediate, tangible action on a massive scale. There is no shortage of efforts and initiatives, with some now being implemented across the globe, but which ones are actually working?</p>
<h2>Just how useful is the Paris Agreement?</h2>
<p>In 2015, the COP21 was held at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris.</p>
<p>The resulting agreement was hailed as a watershed moment, marking the first time that 196 countries committed to decarbonising the global economy. In practice, each state was free to define its national strategy for the energy transition. All the countries party to the agreement must then present their “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) to the other signatories. These NDCs are collated to form the expected trajectory for global greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>The issue with such a strategy (assuming that it is actually enforced) is that the numbers are insufficient. Even if the countries delivered on all their promises, human-induced GHG emissions would still bring about a temperature rise of around 2.7°C by the end of the century.</p>
<p>If we maintain the current momentum for the target to limit the temperature rise to 2°C, we will fall short of by <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/40932/EGR2022_ESEN.pdf">12 billion tons of annual CO₂ equivalent (Gt CO₂-eq/year)</a>. This deficit climbs to 20 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq/year if we aim for a maximum rise of 1.5°C.</p>
<p>Under the framework of the 2015 Paris Agreement, signatory states can theoretically amend their commitments every five years to strengthen their ambitions. The fact is, however, that emissions have continued to rise in virtually every signatory country (when calculated by consumption rather than production).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1995%2C1315&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The French Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Development, Laurent Fabius, ratifies the adoption of the Paris Agreement at COP21 in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cop Paris/Flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although the Paris Agreement was presented as a diplomatic success, it must be conceded as another hollow addition to the litany of commitments that prove ineffective in the face of climate disruption. Actually, suspicions should have been cast from the moment that the text was ratified, given that it does not mention the phrase “fossil fuels” even once. The goal was to avoid ruffling any feathers (among public or private actors), and to get as many states as possible on board with signing an agreement that, in the end, offers no solution to the gravest emergency facing humankind.</p>
<p>At the time of the Paris Agreement’s signature in 2015, if humanity were to have any reasonable hope of limiting global warming to 2°C, the cumulative volume of CO<sub>2</sub> that we could have afforded to emit was no more than 1,000 Gt. Taking into account the last five years of emissions, this <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c9">carbon budget</a> has already dropped to 800 Gt. This is equal to one third of the 2,420 Gt of CO<sub>2</sub> emitted between 1850 and 2020, including 1,680 Gt from fossil fuel burning (and cement production) and 740 Gt from land use (primarily deforestation).</p>
<p>And with annual emissions at around 40 Gt, this carbon budget will plummet at a breakneck pace, reaching zero within the next two decades if nothing changes.</p>
<h2>Could a fossil fuel lockdown solve the problem?</h2>
<p>To reach these targets, humans – especially the wealthiest among them – must consent not to use what has traditionally been seen as the source of their material comforts.</p>
<p>Since fossil fuel reserves have the potential for truly colossal emissions, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016">a third of the world’s oil reserves, half of its gas reserves and over 80% of its coal reserves</a> must remain unexploited. Increasing hydrocarbon production, whether from coal mines or oil and gas deposits, or from the exploitation of new fossil fuel resources (e.g., in the Arctic), would therefore sabotage efforts required to limit climate change.</p>
<p>On top of this, the longer we take to start seriously decarbonising the global economy, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02351-2">the more drastic the necessary action will be</a>. If we had started effectively limiting global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions back in 2018, it would have been enough for us to reduce emissions by 5% until 2100 to cap the temperature rise at 2°C. Embarking on this gargantuan task in 2020 would have required an annual reduction of 6%. But waiting around until 2025 would entail a reduction of 10% per year.</p>
<p>Faced with this emergency, there have been calls in recent years for <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org/cop27">a treaty to ban the spread of fossil fuels</a>. “All” we need to do is make everyone agree to stop using the stuff that has powered the global economy for the last century and a half!</p>
<p>To date, this treaty has been signed only by island nations (such as Vanuatu, Fiji and the Solomon Islands) since these are the most vulnerable to climate collapse. Conversely, hydrocarbon-producing countries and major importing countries are yet to act in this regard. The reason for this is simple: the initiative offers no financial arrangements to compensate hydrocarbon-rich countries, whose governments do not want to risk losing potential GDP.</p>
<p>But if we want to stop the exploitation of fossil fuel reserves, this is precisely the type of compensation that must be offered for an international agreement to achieve meaningful results.</p>
<h2>The crucial role of financiers</h2>
<p>So, are we done for? Not necessarily. One recent <a href="https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/what-happens-when-banks-divest-from-coal-climate-change">study</a> offers a glimmer of hope. Two researchers from the Harvard Business School have shown that there are promising results in the decision by certain banks to pull investments from the coal sector.</p>
<p>The studied sample of data between 2009 and 2021 demonstrates that when backers of coal companies decide to embrace strong disinvestment policies, these companies reduce their borrowings by 25% compared to others unaffected by such strategies. This capital rationing appears markedly to yield reduced CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, as “disinvested” companies are likelier to shut down some of their facilities.</p>
<p>Could this same approach be applied to the oil and gas sector? In theory, yes, but it would be trickier to implement.</p>
<p>For figures in the coal industry, options are limited when it comes to obtaining alternative sources of debt financing if existing ones are withdrawn. Indeed, there are so few banks that actually facilitate transactions involving coal – and relationships are so deeply entrenched – that bankers inevitably hold great sway over who should be financed in this sector. This is not the case in the oil and gas industry, which enjoys a greater diversity of funding options. In any case, all this goes to show that the finance sector has a defining role to play in our transition toward zero carbon.</p>
<p>But it would be delusional to believe that financiers are going to start magically steering the global economy along an eco-friendlier path.</p>
<p>Capitalism dictates a growth imperative that is quite simply nonsensical in a world of finite resources. If we are to stop living beyond the ecological means of our Earth system, we must completely redefine both what we stand for and what we are prepared to give up.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is part of a project between The Conversation France and AFP audio, supported financially by the European Journalism Centre, as part of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation “Solutions Journalism Accelerator” <a href="https://ejc.net/news/the-second-group-selected-in-the-solutions-journalism-accelerator-programme">“Solutions Journalism Accelerator”</a> initiative. AFP and The Conversation France have maintained their editorial independence at every stage of the project.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218385/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victor Court is a member of the "Energy & Prosperity" Chair and a research associate at the Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain (LIED, Université Paris Cité). The opinions expressed in these pages are those of the author alone, and in no way reflect the views of the institutions with which he is affiliated.</span></em></p>Humanity’s ecological footprint takes many different and interconnected forms that are all getting worse.Victor Court, Économiste, chercheur associé au Laboratoire interdisciplinaire des énergies de demain, Université Paris CitéLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1951862022-11-27T13:47:35Z2022-11-27T13:47:35ZCOP27 ‘loss and damage’ fund: A historic decision amid discouraging results<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497077/original/file-20221123-16-7ifzr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C0%2C8588%2C4340&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The sun setting in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, host of COP27. The results of the international meeting were disappointing overall.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27">COP27</a> climate conference was billed as <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/vision#goals">the moment to implement</a> the climate change commitments states made at <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">COP21</a>, held in Paris in December 2015.</p>
<p>COP27 took place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, in an uncertain <a href="https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/11/20/russias-war-on-ukraine-at-cop27-and-energy-security/">geopolitical, energy and economic</a> context. Marked by the 30th anniversary of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, its outcomes were highly anticipated.</p>
<p>The results are encouraging in some respects, and very discouraging in others.</p>
<p>As researchers at the University of Ottawa, UQAM and University of Oxford, we represent the <a href="https://www2.uottawa.ca/faculty-law/common-law/centre-environmental-law-global-sustainability">Centre for Environmental Law and Global Sustainability</a>. We followed COP27 from a distance and in person. Here are the key highlights we took away from it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Youth activists call on world leaders to limit warming to 1.5 C at COP27 on Nov. 19 in Sharm El-Sheikh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Funding for losses and damages: A historic decision, but…</h2>
<p>The conference opened with the unexpected placement of <a href="https://www.iddri.org/en/publications-and-events/blog-post/loss-and-damage-adverse-effects-climate-change-human-and-natural">loss and damage finance</a> on the agenda and the ambitious goal of reaching a decision on this controversial topic. The objective of this aspect of climate finance is to compensate states for the damage suffered due to the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>Driven in large part by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/cop27-agrees-to-historic-loss-and-damage-fund-to-compensate-developing-countries-for-climate-impacts">developing countries</a>, the agreement reached to create a fund and a transitional committee to operationalize the issue of loss and damage is a landmark decision, given the <a href="https://time.com/6188699/loss-damages-blocked-from-cop27-agenda/">reluctance of some developed states</a> in determining the form and consequences of this fund.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators call for funding for loss and damage due to climate change at COP27 on Nov. 18.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The mechanism is expected to be <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/624434">operational within two years</a>, but there are concerns that its funding is heavily dependent on developed countries <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries">whose financial commitments to the Adaptation Fund are still lacking</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/sustainable-future/developing-china-wont-pay-into-climate-loss-fund">China, designated as a developing country</a> (but which, in fact, no longer is), has already revealed that it will not contribute to the fund.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/%E2%80%98loss-and-damage%E2%80%99-deal-struck">Petrostates are also resisting the idea of making any financial contribution</a>. In his closing speech to the plenary session, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stressed <a href="https://media.un.org/en/asset/k12/k12p31t118">the political importance of the fund, but regretted its inadequacy</a>. This mechanism in fact reveals a paradox at the heart of the climate negotiations: the financing of measures to remedy the impacts of climate change, on the one hand, and the continued refusal to eliminate fossil fuels on the other.</p>
<h2>The 1.5 degree target slips further away</h2>
<p>The implementation called for by COP27 was also to be expressed through concrete actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to achieve the objectives of the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/paris-agreement.html">Paris Agreement</a>. The aim is to keep the rise in the average temperature of the planet well below 2°C and to continue efforts to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>In this respect, COP27 was blocked by the status quo, despite the urgency. Parties including Saudi Arabia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/18/eu-reversal-stance-loss-damage-china-cop27">opposed the addition of the 1.5 degree limit in the final text</a>, even after having committed to setting “tougher climate targets” at COP26. Other countries, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/uk-eu-canada-meet-cop27-presidency-say-talks-cant-fail-2022-11-17/">including the UK, Canada and the EU</a> fought to preserve the gains of the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/the-glasgow-climate-pact/">Glasgow Pact</a>. The final text of COP27 merely reaffirms the objectives of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Achieving this goal is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Only 34 countries have <a href="https://unfccc.int/NDCREG">submitted or updated their national contributions to reducing emissions</a> since COP26. However, the current contributions to which states have committed will not (assuming they are met) keep the rise in global temperature <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">below 2 degrees</a>. The <a href="https://news.sky.com/video/cop27-1-5c-global-warming-pledge-is-on-life-support-says-alok-sharma-12751619#:%7E:text=COP26%20President%20Alok%20Sharma%20said,nations%20don't%20act%20now.">1.5°C target is now “on life support.”</a></p>
<h2>Fossil fuel phase-down still missing</h2>
<p>Many countries vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including Tuvalu, have reiterated the urgency of phasing out fossil fuels and have called for the implementation of a <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org/">fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty</a>.</p>
<p>While some parties, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/india-seeks-cop27-deal-phase-down-all-fossil-fuels-sources-2022-11-12/">led by India</a>, lobbied for the phase-down of fossil fuels to be included in the final text, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27/auv">Sharm El-Sheikh Plan of Implementation</a> reiterates the wording proposed in the Glasgow Pact, which refers only to coal. The strong presence of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/10/big-rise-in-number-of-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-at-cop27-climate-summit">oil and gas sector, whose participation increased by 25% compared to COP26</a>, certainly played a role.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian participant Lauren Latour demonstrates against fossil fuels at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh on Nov. 18.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Canada <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/canada-wont-back-call-at-cop27-to-phase-down-oil-and-gas-production">supported the retention of this wording</a> before <a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/cop27-overtime-canada-face-criticism-oil-and-gas">qualifying its position</a> in the face of criticism. No doubt this issue will be discussed again at the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/16/uae-cop28-host-lobby-climate-reputation-cop27">next COP28 in the United Arab Emirates</a>.</p>
<h2>Canada at the COP</h2>
<p>Unlike at COP26, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/11/03/justin-trudeau-shows-lack-of-leadership-by-skipping-climate-change-conference-critics-charge.html">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau</a> and his Québec counterpart, François Legault, did not attend. However, Canada had a strong presence at COP27 with a <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/622327">377-member delegation</a> led by Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada had a 377-member delegation at COP27, led by Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, shown here with counterparts from Norway and New Zealand, on Nov. 19 in Sharm El-Sheikh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The delegation included a wide range of stakeholders beyond the federal public sector. These included representatives of Indigenous organizations, provincial and municipal representatives, NGO representatives, but also <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63571610">eight lobbyists from the fossil fuel sector</a>.</p>
<p>Canada also hosted a pavilion for the first time in the negotiating area. Activities were organized around three guiding pillars: <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/canada-international-action/un-climate-change-conference/cop27-summit/canada-pavilion.html">ambition, implementation and partnership</a>. These activities were nevertheless clouded by <a href="https://www.globeseries.com/cop27-event-program-schedule/">the organization of events featuring the fossil fuel sector</a>, in turn spurring demonstrations by civil society actors (which did not hinder the holding of events).</p>
<h2>A chaotic COP for participants</h2>
<p>A multitude of logistical problems limited access to the negotiations, including pavilions inaccessible to people with reduced mobility, excessive and fluctuating costs of accommodation, <a href="https://www.nationalworld.com/news/environment/cop27-delegates-joe-biden-leaders-egypt-climate-change-summit-3908600">last-minute cancellations of hotel reservations and price increases</a> and various obstacles to safe movement for people with disabilities.</p>
<p>There were also digital issues. Participants faced problems accessing the virtual platform. On site, one of the biggest challenges was the installation of the official application developed by the Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, which required excessive authorizations to access. Indeed, many delegations questioned whether the Egyptian government was actually using the application <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/12/expert-warn-egypts-cop27-app-could-be-used-for-surveilliance">for surveillance purposes</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Simon Stiell, UN executive secretary on climate change, at the closing plenary session of COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh on Nov. 20. COP28 will take place next year in Dubai.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Eyes on Dubai</h2>
<p>COP27 marks 30 years of negotiations, with the prospect of a catastrophic trajectory of <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">temperatures rising between 2.5 and 3 degrees</a>. The results of COP27 are extremely disappointing in this regard given the urgency of the situation. They reflect colossal political differences that highlight the <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/global-climate-change-governance-search-effectiveness-and-universality">major challenges of environmental governance at the international level</a>.</p>
<p>They also demonstrate the difficulty of our societies going without <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/essay/why-are-fossil-fuels-so-hard-to-quit/">fossil fuels</a>. The hopes of climate defenders are now turning, once again, to the next COP. The 28th edition will take place in the United Arab Emirates, a region whose economy is largely based on the exploitation of fossil fuels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195186/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Burelli is the co-director of the Centre for Environmental Law and Global Sustainability at the University of Ottawa.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alycia Leonard is a member of the Energy and Power Group — University of Oxford. Her research is part of the Climate Compatible Growth program, which is funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elie Klee has received funding from the University of Ottawa as Coordinator of the Centre for Environmental Law and Global Sustainability.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexandre Lillo, Erin Dobbelsteyn, Justine Bouquier et Lauren Touchant ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>The historic agreement on a loss and damage fund was overshadowed by lack of progress on phasing out fossil fuels.Thomas Burelli, Professeur en droit, Section de droit civil, Université d’Ottawa (Canada), membre du Conseil scientifique de la Fondation France Libertés, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaAlexandre Lillo, Professeur au Département des sciences juridiques, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Alycia Leonard, Postdoctoral research assistant, University of OxfordElie Klee, Doctorant en droit international public, coordinateur du Centre du droit de l'environnement et de la durabilité mondiale de l'Université d'Ottawa, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaErin Dobbelsteyn, PhD Student in Environmental Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaJustine Bouquier, PhD Candidate, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLauren Touchant, Professor at Vancouver Island University & Postdoctoral fellow, Centre d’études en gouvernance et du Centre de droit de l’environnement et de la durabilité mondiale, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1707862021-11-03T19:07:03Z2021-11-03T19:07:03ZArtists are not at the negotiating table at COP26 but art is everywhere. What can they accomplish through their work?<p>At COP26 in Glasgow, a public artwork intervention stands at Govan Graving Docks, directly opposite the main delegate zone. <a href="https://stillmoving.org">Still/Moving</a>’s unmissable NO NEW WORLDS is a text and light-based piece that alternates between nine iterations of the three words in its title.</p>
<p>As artist Leonie Hampton <a href="https://fadmagazine.com/2021/10/29/no-new-worlds-massive-artwork-set-to-transform-govan-graving-docks-for-cop26/">explains</a>, the re-writable quality of NO NEW WORLDS </p>
<blockquote>
<p>embodies the idea that if we want to change the future, we need to address the stories we tell ourselves about our past, present and future.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This artwork echoes and responds to David Buckland’s powerful <a href="https://www.art-almanac.com.au/david-bucklands-ice-texts-the-effects-of-climate-change/cenlf25uuaaol5t/">Cape Farewell project</a>, done for the Paris COP21 in 2015, in which “Another World is Possible” was projected onto a melting iceberg.</p>
<p>It perfectly sums up the tensions playing out between broader society and the world leaders visiting this conference, and is a desperate plea for substantive political commitments to action. </p>
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<p>Art is now a permanent fixture at UN climate conferences. In Paris, ArtCOP21 saw some 400 events that took place in 46 countries. This year, the artists’ presence is gathered in the <a href="https://climatefringe.org/">Climate Fringe</a>, its title referencing the Edinburgh Fringe Festival. </p>
<p>Climate Fringe, its organisers claim, is “<a href="https://climatefringe.org/">run by civil society for civil society</a>”, and the in-person events are joined by an online hub with community-generated content including lectures, exhibitions, public artworks, film screenings and poetry readings.</p>
<p>But what can art accomplish at a high-stakes political meeting? Everything and nothing, depending on whom you ask.</p>
<h2>An existential threat</h2>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/kathykijiner">Kathy Jetn̄il-Kijiner</a>, a poet and Climate Envoy of the Marshall Islands is currently reporting from Glasgow <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/day-cop26-fight-countrys-survival-170248012.html">for Yahoo</a>. She is no stranger to climate activism. At COP21 in Paris, she recited her poem <a href="https://www.kathyjetnilkijiner.com/poem-2-degrees/">2 Degrees</a>, explaining, in no uncertain terms, what difference half a degree would make for her peoples’ survival and sovereignty.</p>
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<p>For those unfamiliar with the arcane theatrics of climate diplomacy, voices like hers are crucial to understanding what’s at stake. But artists are not at the negotiating table. They’re not actually making the decisions. So what can they hope to accomplish?</p>
<p>Artists can raise awareness, making complex scientific reports accessible and tangible. </p>
<p>For instance, Waanyi artist Judy Watson’s painting, australian mean temperature anomaly (2021), washes statistical bar graphs with an expressive, regenerative and hopeful hue of green to reference the regrowth of K’gari (Fraser Island) following the Black Summer bushfires. At Brisbane’s Institute of Modern Art’s recent show <a href="https://artguide.com.au/curator-tim-riley-walsh-on-using-art-to-comprehend-crisis/">On Fire</a>, Watson’s work sat in contrast to a lump of coal on a plinth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429887/original/file-20211103-25-gl0bx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429887/original/file-20211103-25-gl0bx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429887/original/file-20211103-25-gl0bx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429887/original/file-20211103-25-gl0bx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429887/original/file-20211103-25-gl0bx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429887/original/file-20211103-25-gl0bx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429887/original/file-20211103-25-gl0bx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429887/original/file-20211103-25-gl0bx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Judy Watson, australian mean temperature anomaly, 2021 (installation view) . Acrylic, graphite, pastel, chinagraph on canvas, and coal, 269 x 179.5 cm, assisted by Leecee Carmichael. Courtesy of the artist, Milani Gallery, Brisbane, and Tolarno Galleries, Melbourne. Installation view: ‘On Fire: Climate and Crisis’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">IMA Brisbane. Photo: Carl Warner.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Artists do more than simply tell us there’s a problem. They can add nuance to the complex web of interconnected issues we face. They can tell stories about loss, about possibility and transformation, <a href="https://climarte.org/">inside and beyond the art world</a>. </p>
<p>Some, like the Brandalism collective, aim to influence political action. After Australia’s devastating Black Summer fires in 2019-2020, they created <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2020/feb/04/bushfire-brandalism-australian-artists-replace-bus-shelter-ads-with-political-posters">How’s the Serenity?</a>, a guerrilla art intervention with posters linking the fires, climate change, and political inaction. These posters were pasted up as caustic “anti-advertising” across Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. </p>
<p>In Glasgow and other towns and cities across the UK and Europe, billboard campaigns target the greenwashing propaganda of COP’s principal sponsor <a href="http://brandalism.ch/carbon-offsets-dont-work-billboard-takeover-spotlight-natwests-climate-policies-ahead-of-cop26-climate-talks/">NatWest</a>. Hundreds more unsanctioned satirical posters have taken over bus stops and billboards, targeting corporate carbon offsetting schemes and the questionable climate policies of <a href="http://brandalism.ch/barclays-fossil-bank-blog/">Barclays</a>, <a href="https://www.thedrum.com/news/2021/10/11/london-s-biggest-ad-agencies-targeted-anti-advertising-climate-protests">Shell</a> and <a href="http://brandalism.ch/17-year-old-snorkel-instructor-in-australia-inspires-uk-spoof-ad-campaign-against-hsbc-greenwashing/">HSBC</a>.</p>
<p>These interventions are pungent reminders of the existential challenge we face. </p>
<h2>A journey, not a destination</h2>
<p>But while they may highlight the threats, these artworks don’t quite help us to imagine pathways to a sustainable future.</p>
<p>One problem is that the challenges of climate change have been reduced to a handful of simplified proxies. We should not exceed 350 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere – though <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/05/atmospheric-co2-concentration-record/">we have reached 420ppm</a> and remain on a frightening upward trajectory. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429883/original/file-20211103-17-1ibcdqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A red house sinks into a lake." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429883/original/file-20211103-17-1ibcdqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429883/original/file-20211103-17-1ibcdqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429883/original/file-20211103-17-1ibcdqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429883/original/file-20211103-17-1ibcdqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429883/original/file-20211103-17-1ibcdqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429883/original/file-20211103-17-1ibcdqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429883/original/file-20211103-17-1ibcdqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Too often, climate art imagines the future – but not the paths we must take.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We should keep global warming below 1.5 degrees - but most recent policies are still projected to lead to a <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/">2.9 degree increase</a>. </p>
<p>We must meet a “net-zero” target by 2050. But what do such abstractions and distant targets mean for our daily lives?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Climate artists also face another dilemma. </p>
<p>Climate-related apocalyptic art now speaks to audiences largely familiar with global warming’s threats and projected impacts. Though at its best still starkly confronting, such art is heavily “message-laden”. Often saying little new, it is increasingly banal and, paradoxically, begins to naturalise the awful future it wishes to avert.</p>
<p>Alternatively, arcadian images of a climate-safe future seem in deep denial about the turbulence of the coming transition. Contending futures have become increasingly difficult to construct visually, and to rally people behind or against. </p>
<p>We believe the way forward for climate art is not to imagine our fatalistic or idyllic futures, but instead to sketch out pathways that can get us there. </p>
<p>Without Molly Crabapple’s rapid-fire captivating drawings, visualising and making accessible Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s complex proposal for a Green New Deal, would people have listened? Would they have understood?</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/d9uTH0iprVQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>On Friday 5 November, in the fringes of the COP, artists collective Julie’s Bicycle is hosting <a href="https://juliesbicycle.com/event/culture-the-missing-link/">The Missing Link</a>. This event “explores the vital role that arts and culture must play in climate transformation”, and will give attendees online from all over the world a handle on this issue. </p>
<p>At their best, artists are still uniquely able to add meaning and generate empathy and perspective to the tangled web of climate discourse. In doing so, they help imagine and illuminate the complex and ultimately radical voyage we’re on together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christiaan De Beukelaer receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the ClimateWorks Foundation. He previously received funding from the European Cultural Foundation, the European Science Foundation, and the Royal Society Te Apārangi. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Christoff was a Chair and board member of the arts organisation, CLIMARTE.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eloise Jane Breskvar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Artists do more than tell us there’s a problem. They can add nuance to the complex web of interconnected issues we face and tell stories about loss, possibility and transformation.Christiaan De Beukelaer, Senior Lecturer, The University of MelbourneEloise Jane Breskvar, Tutor, The University of MelbournePeter Christoff, Senior Research Fellow and Associate Professor, Melbourne Climate Futures initiative, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1602432021-06-30T12:12:33Z2021-06-30T12:12:33ZTo make agriculture more climate-friendly, carbon farming needs clear rules<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408481/original/file-20210626-17-3d0f70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C2828%2C1881&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Soybeans sprout on an Illinois farm through corn stubble left on an unplowed field from the previous season – an example of no-till farming.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/dgETmg">Paige Buck, USDA/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the effects of <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/">climate change</a> intensify and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.621">paths for limiting global warming narrow</a>, politicians, media and environmental advocates have rallied behind “carbon farming” as a mutually beneficial strategy for society, the environment and farmers.</p>
<p>Agriculture covers <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food">more than half of Earth’s terrestrial surface</a> and contributes <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5/">roughly one-third</a> of global greenhouse gas emissions. Paying farmers to restore <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1706103114">carbon-depleted</a> soils offers a tantalizing opportunity for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0491-z">a natural climate solution</a> that could help nations to meet their commitments under the international <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a> to stabilize global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. </p>
<p>An international initiative called “<a href="https://www.4p1000.org">4 per 1000</a>,” launched at the <a href="https://www.cop21paris.org/about/cop21">2015 Paris climate conference</a>, showed that increasing soil carbon worldwide by just 0.4% yearly could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2017.12.002">offset that year’s new growth in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel emissions</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408943/original/file-20210629-24-1lvhasn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pig sunbathing in pasture." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408943/original/file-20210629-24-1lvhasn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408943/original/file-20210629-24-1lvhasn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408943/original/file-20210629-24-1lvhasn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408943/original/file-20210629-24-1lvhasn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408943/original/file-20210629-24-1lvhasn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408943/original/file-20210629-24-1lvhasn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408943/original/file-20210629-24-1lvhasn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A free-range pig at the Stone Brns Center for Food and Agriculture in New York. Raising livestock and crops together can boost soil carbon through the animals’ grazing patterns and natural manure distribution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Francesca Cotrufo</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Research shows that farmers and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms7995">ranchers</a> can also make their operations <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe492">more resilient</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103085">increasingly variable weather</a> by adopting practices that promote soil carbon sequestration. This prospect led us to <a href="https://www.research.colostate.edu/cip/scsc/">establish a center</a> at Colorado State University that develops and implements <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=i4i0ZvoAAAAJ&hl=en">soil-based</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HRySep8AAAAJ&hl=en">solutions</a> to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Jg8EQ28AAAAJ&hl=en">climate</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Prw0xGgAAAAJ&hl=en">change</a>. </p>
<p>While many policy options exist to <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/16af156c-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/16af156c-en">reduce emissions from agricuture</a>, carbon farming has sparked <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/24/senate-farmers-carbon-agriculture-496029">bipartisan U.S. legislation</a> and attracted <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/how-carbon-smart-farming-catalyzing-big-bucks-needed-transform-way-america-eats">investors’ attention</a>. Critics <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/insider-further-explanation-potential-contribution-soil-carbon-sequestration-working">question</a> its true potential, however. Some environment and justice advocacy groups argue that paying farmers <a href="https://modernfarmer.com/2021/04/environmental-groups-call-bidens-carbon-bank-plan-a-scam/">won’t do much to increase soil carbon</a>, and could allow polluting industries such as manufacturing to avoid necessary emission reductions by buying soil carbon credits from farmers instead.</p>
<p>Given the momentum behind carbon farming as a climate change mitigation strategy, we believe now is the time to establish clear standards that ensure that only real net changes in carbon receive financial rewards.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AY9YVwJZDvw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Increasing carbon storage in soil can help stabilize the climate and support food production.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Carbon farming basics</h2>
<p>As plants grow, they pull carbon from the atmosphere, and soil soaks it up and stores it. The amount of carbon stored <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2013.10.002">varies significantly</a> across soil type and climate. </p>
<p>Traditional farming methods that sequester carbon <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-8809(92)90095-S">have existed for millennia</a>. For example, minimizing soil disturbance through <a href="https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj2013.09.0422">no-till farming</a> reduces carbon loss to the atmosphere. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.564900">Diversifying crops</a> and planting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-011-0056-7">legumes</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biy014">perennials</a> and <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eap.2278">cover crops</a> returns more carbon to the soil, and sustains soil microbes that <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-restore-our-soils-feed-the-microbes-79616">play key roles in carbon storage</a>. </p>
<p>Another climate-friendly strategy is raising livestock and crops together. Rotating cows among pastures allows grasses to recover from grazing, and the animals’ manure and the impacts of their grazing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112409">regenerate carbon in soils</a>. </p>
<p>Some farmers use these practices, which often are called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/regenerative-agriculture-can-make-farmers-stewards-of-the-land-again-110570">regenerative agriculture</a>,” particularly in <a href="https://www.chelseagreen.com/product/farming-while-black/">Black</a> and <a href="https://www.nativefoodsystems.org/">Indigenous communities</a> that have been <a href="https://flexpub.com/preview/dispossession">excluded from access to capital and government subsidies</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408941/original/file-20210629-16-1okuhx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cross section of prairie soil with deep roots." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408941/original/file-20210629-16-1okuhx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408941/original/file-20210629-16-1okuhx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408941/original/file-20210629-16-1okuhx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408941/original/file-20210629-16-1okuhx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408941/original/file-20210629-16-1okuhx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408941/original/file-20210629-16-1okuhx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408941/original/file-20210629-16-1okuhx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The deep roots of Kernza, a perennial grain, reduce erosion, help the plant tolerate drought and add soil carbon deeper in the ground than shorter-rooted annual grains. Kernza, the first commercially viable perennial grain in the U.S., was developed by The Land Institute, based in Salina, Kansas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Francesca Cotrufo</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Soil: A low-cost solution</h2>
<p>Increasing soil carbon through techniques like no-till is relatively inexpensive. Studies estimate that carbon farming costs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0491-z">US$10-$100 per ton of CO2 removed</a>, compared with $100-$1,000 per ton for technologies that <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/direct-air-capture">mechanically remove carbon from the air</a>.</p>
<p>Carbon farming is also a potential revenue stream for farmers and ranchers, who can <a href="https://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2021/04/18/what-farmers-should-know-selling-carbon-credits/7280044002/">sell the credits they earn in carbon markets</a>. Large-scale greenhouse gas emitters, such as manufacturers, purchase these credits to offset their own emissions.</p>
<p>Companies such as <a href="https://www.indigoag.com/pages/news/first-companies-commit-to-purchasing-verified-agricultural-carbon-credits">IndigoAg</a> and <a href="https://locusag.com/shopify-will-be-first-high-volume-corporate-buyer-of-carbon-credits-from-a-us-carbonnow-farmer/">Nori</a> are already facilitating payments to farmers for carbon credits. And on June 24, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1251/cosponsors?r=46&s=1&searchResultViewType=expanded">Growing Climate Solutions Act of 2021</a> by a vote of 92-8. The bill would authorize the U.S. Department of Agriculture to help farmers, ranchers and private forest landowners participate in carbon markets.</p>
<p>So far, however, there are no universal standards for measuring, reporting or verifying agricultural carbon credits. Here are the questions we see as top priorities.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1352640593151758336"}"></div></p>
<h2>Assessing carbon storage</h2>
<p>One major challenge is that soils absorb varying amounts of carbon depending on depth, texture and mineral content. While <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2019.00008">certain practices increase carbon storage</a>, quantifying how much is stored and for how long is critical for assigning dollar values to them. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15613">markets and practices</a> that work in different locations also vary widely.</p>
<p>Some scientific models offer <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.564900">estimates of carbon sequestration for various climates and soil types</a> based on averages over large areas. We believe that regulators need <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3147-2021">rigorous models</a> verified by measurements to avoid crediting carbon that never ends up in soil or doesn’t remain there for long. </p>
<p>But verification isn’t easy. Scientists are still searching for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14815">quick, accurate, cost-effective ways</a> to sample and analyze soils. </p>
<p>Possible approaches include <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.634472">infrared spectroscopy</a> – which identifies materials in soil by analyzing how they absorb or reflect infrared light – or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00744-x">machine learning</a>, which can find patterns in large data sets quickly. Studies conducted in the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10533-021-00755-1">U.S. Great Plains</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.634472">the United Kingdom and the European Union</a> suggest these are promising, low-cost methods. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408483/original/file-20210626-14-im52kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing roadblocks to soil carbon market integration." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408483/original/file-20210626-14-im52kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408483/original/file-20210626-14-im52kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408483/original/file-20210626-14-im52kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408483/original/file-20210626-14-im52kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408483/original/file-20210626-14-im52kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408483/original/file-20210626-14-im52kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408483/original/file-20210626-14-im52kz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Integrating carbon into markets poses scientific, economic and technical challenges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.research.colostate.edu/cip/scsc/">CSU Soil Carbon Solutions Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another priority is developing national minimum standards to predict and properly value soil carbon capture. Carbon may reside in soil anywhere from days to millennia, so time scale is an important consideration for markets. In our view, credits should reflect the duration carbon resides in soil, with full offsets generated only for <a href="https://theconversation.com/soil-carbon-is-a-valuable-resource-but-all-soil-carbon-is-not-created-equal-129175">longer-lasting storage</a>.</p>
<p>We also believe that these programs must consider an operation’s net greenhouse gas emissions. For example, practices may store more carbon in soil but also increase emissions of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15342">nitrous oxide, another greenhouse gas</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408530/original/file-20210627-24-1gkfh46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Well-designed soil carbon policies will benefit farmers and society." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408530/original/file-20210627-24-1gkfh46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408530/original/file-20210627-24-1gkfh46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408530/original/file-20210627-24-1gkfh46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408530/original/file-20210627-24-1gkfh46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408530/original/file-20210627-24-1gkfh46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=656&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408530/original/file-20210627-24-1gkfh46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=656&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408530/original/file-20210627-24-1gkfh46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=656&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Backed by effective technologies and policies, carbon farming can improve ecosystems and help to slow climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.research.colostate.edu/cip/scsc/">CSU Soil Carbon Solutions Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Benefits and challenges</h2>
<p>Rebuilding carbon-rich soil supports farmers’ bottom lines by improving soil health and <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-5-15-2019">increasing crop yields</a>. But federal incentives could preferentially provide resources to <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2017/december/us-cropland-is-consolidating-into-larger-farms/">big operations</a> that have greater ability to sequester carbon on their vast acreage. </p>
<p>That’s been the case with U.S. farm subsidies: Over the past 25 years, <a href="https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=totalfarm&page=conc&regionname=theUnitedStates">10% of the largest farms received 78% of subsidies</a>. </p>
<p>Since these practices benefit farmers, some may use them even without policy incentives. As we see it, <a href="https://www.offsetguide.org/high-quality-offsets/additionality">to avoid paying for soil carbon increases that would have occurred anyway</a>, carbon banks should avoid crediting farms for adopting practices known to be profitable in their regions. </p>
<p>Ultimately, the goals of climate policy include curbing greenhouse gas emissions and actively removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Before farmers receive soil carbon credits they can sell to offset other sources of emissions, we believe their value must be accurately assessed to ensure that society gets what it pays for.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article has been updated to reflect that IndigoAg does not purchase carbon credits.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160243/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura van der Pol receives funding from the United Stated Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture as well as the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dale Manning receives funding from USDA.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesca Cotrufo receives funding from
NSF, USDA, DOE, Shell, MacDonald, GeneralMills
She is a founding member of Cquester Analytics LLC</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Megan Machmuller receives funding from WSARE, CDA, USDA. She is a founding member of Cquester Analytics LLC.</span></em></p>Policymakers want to pay farmers for storing carbon in soil, but there are no uniform rules yet for measuring, reporting or verifying the results. Four scholars offer some ground rules.Laura van der Pol, Ph.D Student in Ecology, Colorado State UniversityDale Manning, Associate Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State UniversityFrancesca Cotrufo, Professor, Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State UniversityMegan Machmuller, Research Scientist, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1581092021-03-30T12:32:28Z2021-03-30T12:32:28ZClimate crisis: keeping hope of 1.5°C limit alive is vital to spurring global action<p>Ever since governments at the 2015 Paris climate summit set 1.5°C as <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">the desired limit</a> for global warming, scientists and journalists alike have regularly asked whether it is achievable. <a href="https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/coming-months-decisive-global-net-zero-race-europe-reacts-un-report-national-climate-plans">The question arose</a> again recently when the UN published a report of national <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/greater-climate-ambition-urged-as-initial-ndc-synthesis-report-is-published">emission-cutting pledges</a> for the next decade. It will be posed regularly before the publication of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report</a> in July – a synthesis of the most recent information scientists can offer on climate change – and the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">UN climate summit</a> in November.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Science</a> is already clear that the 1.5°C target can be met. But science cannot say whether it will be met. The outcome depends on two things we cannot know with precision: how <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/climate-sensitivity-explained">sensitive the climate system is</a> to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and how quickly the world will cut emissions.</p>
<p>Humanity has little sway over climate sensitivity. But on the second issue – what we do about emissions – humanity clearly holds the lever of influence.</p>
<p>The recent UN report showed that governments are not pushing that lever on short-term emissions hard enough. Only 40% of countries have so far set a new emission-cutting target for 2030, as they are due to under the Paris Agreement. Collectively, they are pledging to bring emissions down by 1% below 2010 levels rather than the 45% proposed by the IPCC as being compatible with meeting the 1.5°C limit. </p>
<p>Yet, since autumn 2020, <a href="https://ca1-eci.edcdn.com/reports/ECIU-Oxford_Taking_Stock.pdf">China, the EU, the US, Japan and South Korea</a> have all pledged to reach net zero emissions around mid-century. If they follow through, that would <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/global-update-paris-agreement-turning-point/">halve the gap to the 1.5°C target</a> – and that’s without factoring in the wider effect on global markets, investment and prices that will inevitably follow.</p>
<p>So the future is not set, and much will depend on decisions made in these next few crucial years.</p>
<p>While scientists might be tempted to spend much of 2021 arguing whether the Paris Agreement’s limit is feasible, having this as a live debate could itself lower our chances of delivering the target.</p>
<h2>Consensus and empowerment</h2>
<p>The chances of stopping warming at 1.5°C increase the faster the global community cuts greenhouse gas emissions to zero. And how fast we do that depends on the interrelated actions of a huge mix of people – government ministers most importantly, but also business chiefs, investors, banks, religious leaders, activists and citizens. The last few years have seen efforts accelerate across those constituencies, from the establishment of <a href="https://www.unepfi.org/banking/bankingprinciples/">financial mechanisms by the UN</a> to the <a href="https://fridaysforfuture.org/">Fridays for Future</a> movement.</p>
<p>Across these initiatives, one inescapable fact is how central the 1.5°C target now is. The <a href="https://climateemergencyeu.org/#letter">open letter</a> that Fridays for Future sent to political leaders in 2020 referred to the 1.5°C limit five times, and not at all to the other Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming “well below 2°C”. When deciding their net zero emissions targets, the governments of the <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/2019/05/02/phase-out-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-2050-to-end-uk-contribution-to-global-warming/">UK</a> and <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/climate-change-response-zero-carbon-amendment-bill-summary">New Zealand</a> both explicitly referred to the 1.5°C limit as the global “guardrail” and set their national decarbonisation trajectories accordingly. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/un-secretary-general-making-peace-with-nature-is-the-defining-task-of-the-21st-century">exhorts</a> governments and businesses to meet this goal specifically rather than “well below 2°C.”</p>
<p>So to claim that 1.5°C is out of reach would be to undercut all of those initiatives and many others – to tell them all, from minister to investor to youth activist, that they are doomed to fail.</p>
<p>Social science tells us a lot about the effects of different types of messaging on climate action, including on two issues that are significant here: consensus and empowerment.</p>
<p>From <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1295">climate change</a> to <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-015-2541-4">vaccination</a>, a consensus message from scientists increases public faith and willingness to act. We’re seeing how <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/european-trust-in-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-plunges-survey/a-56946669">mixed messaging damages trust</a> right now with the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine. Would climate contrarians <a href="https://www.therealpress.co.uk/product/denied-by-richard-black-print/">have put so much effort</a> into undermining the perception of consensus among climate scientists were not the perception of consensus important to decarbonisation?</p>
<p>The world stands a better chance of tackling climate change if people feel they have a chance of succeeding. Academic research backs up this common sense. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/discourses-of-climate-delay/7B11B722E3E3454BB6212378E32985A7">A major study</a> in 2020 showed how the “we cannot do it” argument works to delay action, noting that such statements “can result in a paralysing state of shock and resignation”, which is a deterrent to active engagement in solutions. Research also shows that public disengagement is the inevitable result of a perceived <a href="http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/113171/">sense of conflict</a> among scientists. This may be the intent of people wishing to delay climate action, but it’s presumably not an outcome that scientists who support decarbonisation seek.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-denial-hasnt-gone-away-heres-how-to-spot-arguments-for-delaying-climate-action-141991">Climate denial hasn't gone away – here's how to spot arguments for delaying climate action</a>
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<p>The IPCC is perhaps the biggest consensus-forming initiative in the whole of science. Its 2018 Special Report found 1.5°C achievable and, judging from private conversations, this year’s report is unlikely to close the door.</p>
<p>So will our species succeed in limiting global warming to 1.5°C and so stave off some of the more crippling effects of climate change? No one can possibly know. Can we succeed? As former US president Barack Obama once said: “Yes, we can.” And knowing that we can makes it more likely that we will.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158109/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Black is a consultant to the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit – a non-profit think tank.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Happer has received funding from UKERC and the Avatar Alliance Foundation.</span></em></p>Discord and doubt are the last things the world needs at this critical moment.Richard Black, Honorary Research Fellow, Grantham Institute, Imperial College LondonCatherine Happer, Lecturer in Sociology, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1332512020-03-15T07:20:24Z2020-03-15T07:20:24ZGlobal emissions are way off target: what needs to happen<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320109/original/file-20200312-111253-1k93srg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa still depends on coal for most of its electricity.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>At the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, countries set goals that require halving carbon emissions by 2030. In a new piece in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00571-x">Nature</a>, Professor Harald Winkler, as part of an international team, delivers the bad news that the emissions gap - between what countries pledged to then and what needs to be done now - is growing. He also points to small signs of hope that the climate crisis can still be addressed.</em> </p>
<p><strong>1. How much has the emissions gap grown by? How was this established?</strong></p>
<p>The emissions gap has grown significantly since 2010, when the first <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2010">Emissions Gap Report</a> was produced by the United Nations Environment Programme. A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00571-x">comment in Nature</a> led by my colleague Niklas Höhne, professor at the University of Wageningen, reflected on these increases. Our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00571-x">analysis</a> shows that the gap has widened by as much as four times since 2010. How much exactly depends on the details.</p>
<p>Our conclusions are based on a synthesis of all 10 editions of the United Nations Environment Programme’s gap report. Each year for the past 10 years, this report has examined the difference (the “gap”) between what countries have pledged to do individually to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, and what they need to do collectively to meet agreed temperature limits. The 2015 <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2016/09/the-paris-agreement-faqs/">Paris Agreement</a> aims to keep global temperature increase to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels – and possibly 1.5°C.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319536/original/file-20200310-61066-gkg7cc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319536/original/file-20200310-61066-gkg7cc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319536/original/file-20200310-61066-gkg7cc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319536/original/file-20200310-61066-gkg7cc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319536/original/file-20200310-61066-gkg7cc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319536/original/file-20200310-61066-gkg7cc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319536/original/file-20200310-61066-gkg7cc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319536/original/file-20200310-61066-gkg7cc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Insufficient climate action during the past decade means that transformational development pathways are now required to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions on time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author supplied</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are three reasons for the gap: a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00571-x">14%</a> increase in emissions from 2008 to 2018; <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf#page=2">global agreement</a> on a lower limit on global temperature; and insufficient commitments by countries. With more stringent global temperature limits now agreed, it’s now <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00571-x">projected</a> that 25% lower emissions will be needed to meet the goal of 2°C and 55% for 1.5°C. </p>
<p><strong>2. What are the implications?</strong></p>
<p>In our study of the gap reports, we found that the required emissions cuts from 2020 to 2030 are now more than 7% per year on average for the 1.5°C temperature limit set in Paris and 3% for 2°C. </p>
<p>Had serious climate action begun in 2010, the cuts required to meet the emissions levels for 2°C would have been 2% per year, on average. </p>
<p>Instead, among the top seven emitting countries or regions, one has lower emissions (the EU), another slightly lower (India), three show no change (the US, Russia and China) and two are higher (Brazil and Indonesia). Together with other countries, the overall trend of rising emissions has not been reversed over the past 10 years – so now there is less time to reach the goal. </p>
<p>The time window for halving global emissions has narrowed: in the words of the Nature report, in 2010, the world thought it had 30 years to halve global emissions of greenhouse gases. Today, we know that this must happen in ten years. </p>
<p>In plain language, a decade of insufficient political action on climate change means that nations must now do four times the work – or do the same work in one-third of the time – to comply with the climate pact they made in Paris. The less action countries take collectively to cut carbon, the higher the temperature increase and the more severe the impacts. The poor, who are least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, suffer the most from its impacts.</p>
<p><strong>3. What are the urgent steps that need to be taken to reverse the trend?</strong></p>
<p>The gap is so huge that governments, the private sector and communities need to switch into crisis mode, and to make their climate pledges more ambitious. Immediate action is needed in a climate emergency - while ensuring equity. </p>
<p>Given the delay in action, much more rapid emission reductions will be needed to keep the temperature goals in reach. Instead of developing in a way that involves high consumption and high emissions, countries need to provide people with basic needs through low emissions and sustainable development, tackling socio-economic inequality at the same time. </p>
<p>Action is now required from all countries, including those that are still developing to meet basic needs.</p>
<p><strong>4. What good work is being done to control emissions that others can follow?</strong></p>
<p>Some countries, regions, cities and businesses have promised to take ambitious climate action. For example, 76 countries or regions and 14 subnational regions or states have set net-zero emissions goals. This means that they have set a year (often around 2050) when their greenhouse gas emissions will be balanced by removal of emissions. The net result will be zero emissions to the atmosphere. Combining this with <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/21252030%20Agenda%20for%20Sustainable%20Development%20web.pdf">sustainable development goals</a> means zero poverty as well as zero emissions. </p>
<p>One sign of hope is that the <a href="https://www.irena.org/costs">costs</a> of renewable energy are falling fast, globally and in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<p>In South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa presented a proposal to the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/">2019 climate change summit</a> to <a href="http://www.dirco.gov.za/docs/speeches/2019/cram0923.htm">fund</a> the faster phasing-out of coal without negative effects on workers and communities that depend on it. International climate finance is a critical ingredient to support a just transition. </p>
<p>The comment in Nature also includes examples of what other emerging economies that depend on coal, such as China and India, are doing. They are adjusting the fuel price, capping its consumption, reducing plans for new coal-fired power plants and supporting renewable energy production. Much more must be done, and quickly – while addressing poverty, energy access and urbanisation – to address both development and climate change. </p>
<p>The same is true for South Africa, which still depends on coal for 83% of its electricity and 59% of all <a href="http://www.energy.gov.za/files/media/explained/2018-South-African-Energy-Sector-Report.pdf">energy</a>. The country needs to adopt a vision for a just transition that includes net-zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, and put in place the laws, institutions and practical actions to achieve that goal. </p>
<p>South Africa has a <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/carbon-tax-act-15-2019-english-afrikaans-23-may-2019-0000">Carbon Tax Act</a> and in 2020 the country needs to promulgate a framework Climate Change Act. In 2018, a national jobs summit <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_documents/Jobs_Summit_FrameWork_Agreement.pdf">agreed</a> to establish a presidential climate change coordinating commission as the statutory body to oversee South Africa’s just transition. This needs to be designed carefully and set up urgently. To make the transition just, communities and workers who are dependent on coal will have to be integrally involved in the change, ensuring they have sustainable livelihoods.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harald Winkler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. He writes in his personal capacity. While working at the University of Cape Town, he has undertaken studies related to the climate change, mitigation, poverty and inequality, including for National Treasury and the Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries, but not received funding for writing this piece.</span></em></p>Climate pledges must be more ambitious and focus on early and aggressive action to deal with global emissions.Harald Winkler, Professor working on climate change mitigation, inequality, sustainable development and energy policy, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1116822019-02-17T19:43:03Z2019-02-17T19:43:03ZThe exorbitant cost of climate procrastination<p>From COP24’s disappointing final agreement to France’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/05/france-wealth-tax-changes-gilets-jaunes-protests-president-macron">abandonment of the carbon tax increase</a> due to the “gilets jaunes” movement… it seems that concerns about climate change have fell to the very bottom of the global political agendas. </p>
<p>The current pace of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and national commitments outlined in the wake of the Paris Agreement still put the world on track toward 3°C of warming above preindustrial temperatures by the end of this century. This lies far beyond the +1.5°C target considered as the most acceptable for all participant countries during the 21st Conference of the Parties which took place in Paris in 2015. Even the +2°C target, although less binding, still remains out of reach under current trends and policies.</p>
<p>A 3°C warming would wreak havoc on the planet, justifying the absolute necessity of the +1.5°C limit. However, even a +1.5°C change would incur heavy consequences. The adaptation cost would undoubtedly be high both for current and future generations: loss of agricultural yields, sea-level rise, whole regions rendered uninhabitable, leading to massive flows of climate migrants, collapse of the ecosystems and impoverished biodiversity, extreme meteorological events, seashore and topsoil erosion… All these effects will grow even more dire as global warming proceeds.</p>
<p>It would thus be irresponsible to downplay the climate issue by considering it less urgent than social or economic crises.</p>
<h2>When will the carbon budget be depleted?</h2>
<p>How to put back climate urgency at the core of discussions and commitments? One potential answer would be to give a monetary value to the procrastination that delays the decarbonisation of the economy.</p>
<p>In order to do so, we rely on what climatologists call the “global carbon budget”. This is the quantity of greenhouse gases (GHG) that can be emitted while keeping global warming under a given threshold (for example, +2°C or +1.5°C for the Paris agreement). The computation of this carbon budget includes carbon sinks (such as the oceans and the biomass) as well as GHG other than CO<sub>2</sub>.</p>
<p>Failing to commit to decarbonisation immediately will lead to an early exhaustion of the carbon budget.</p>
<p>Using projected emissions pathways, it is possible to compute the year by which the carbon budget will be depleted. Should this happen, we will be compelled to cut our emissions immediately and entirely. But this way of complying with the environmental constraint is utterly absurd since it exacerbates the procrastination logic.</p>
<p>Less costly ways to achieve decarbonisation exist. But extreme procrastination provides an upper bound for the decarbonisation cost. Given an estimate of the depletion year, the decarbonisation cost can be calculated by discounting the cost of emissions reduction using a backstop technology able to capture and store CO<sub>2</sub> (see for instance <a href="http://www.climeworks.com/">Climeworks</a>). The total cost grows over time, year after year, as long as we do not pay for it. It is therefore comparable to a debt, which is why we refer to it as a “climate debt”.</p>
<h2>10 years left</h2>
<p>We find striking results, as shown in the following table. The EU carbon budget will be depleted within 10 years for the +2°C target, while the corresponding EU climate debt is larger than 50% of the GDP.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258520/original/file-20190212-174867-vp69xs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258520/original/file-20190212-174867-vp69xs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=219&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258520/original/file-20190212-174867-vp69xs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=219&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258520/original/file-20190212-174867-vp69xs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=219&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258520/original/file-20190212-174867-vp69xs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258520/original/file-20190212-174867-vp69xs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258520/original/file-20190212-174867-vp69xs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/pbrief/2018/OFCEpbrief45.pdf">iASES 2019, chapter 3</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This estimation is speculative by nature – it is based on future emissions projections and cost estimates for future emissions reduction technologies. Using a stricter set of hypotheses can lead to a 200% of GDP climate debt for the European Union. (The <a href="https://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/pbrief/2018/OFCEpbrief45.pdf">OFCE’s policy brief</a> details more precisely the parameters and assumptions made.)</p>
<p>For the even harsher +1.5°C constraint, the EU carbon budget is already depleted. The European Union shows an “excessive climate deficit” and implicitly borrows from other countries – as long as the global carbon budget is not depleted – and then from the climate – when the global carbon budget will be entirely depleted. For this target, the European climate debt is about 120% of GDP.</p>
<p>This climate debt is huge, in particular for the +1.5°C target. Worse, it grows whenever we postpone the implementation of environmental policies. This increase is linked to the growing gap between decarbonisation pathways and the effective emissions trend on the one hand and to the cost of borrowing from other countries and the climate on the other.</p>
<h2>Action now is less costly than the 2008 financial crisis</h2>
<p>When the global budget is depleted, further procrastination will entail overshooting the +1.5°C or +2°C threshold. Bringing global warming back on target will then require negative emissions, which will be costlier than not overshooting.</p>
<p>The magnitude of our estimates also illustrates our responsibility. The +2°C target cost can be put on a par with an investment flow of 1% (and up to 4% when considering the strictest hypotheses) of the European GDP each year until the end of the century. This is comparable in magnitude to the results reported in the 2006 <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+tf_/http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm">Stern report</a> – the first major study to provide economic estimates of the impacts of climate change – while using a different methodology. It is also quite close to the 180 billion euros of green investments estimated by the European Commission in its assessment of green investment needs for the EU.</p>
<p>1% of GDP to stick to the +2°C target implies less consumption, less productive investments or even less education, since this “investment” does not grant any other advantage than reducing CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. It is also a challenge for inequalities since some of climate change mitigation policies instruments used have significant distributional impacts, and may impact lower income households disproportionately.</p>
<p>But it remains small enough to not have any excuses for giving up the commitment of the COP21: the 2008 crisis represents a bigger loss of GDP than that. The +1.5°C target is of course more restrictive; the investment flow is about 2.4% of GDP, and can go well beyond depending on the chosen scenarios.</p>
<h2>The issue of burden sharing</h2>
<p>This estimation also highlights the sensitivity of climate debt to the sharing rules – namely how the carbon budget is to be split between the countries of the globe. For example, depending on whether we share the carbon budget based on a snapshot of Europe’s share of global emissions taken in 2018 or 1990, the climate debt varies from a ratio of 4 to 1.</p>
<p>The first method (using 2018 as a reference point) benefits developed countries, which have been emitting more per capita than the rest of the world since 1990. Adopting a producer approach by ignoring imported carbon in goods manufactured elsewhere (net of exportations) also reduces the responsibility of developed countries.</p>
<p>The choice of burden sharing methodology also influences estimations within Europe. COP21 innovated by setting aside the issue of shared responsibility and allowing every country to express its own. But the world is (still) closed and what some do not do will be to the detriment of all.</p>
<p>Our quantification indicates that implicit transfers between states, including within the EU, go into the double-digits points of GDP. Not only does postponing the debate about how we should share the burden increase the burden but it also generates future conflicts, especially as climate change becomes more urgent.</p>
<p>The following quote is attributed to the British physicist Lord Kelvin, <a href="http://www.manoa.hawaii.edu/ctahr/aheed/Carl/supplementary%20readings/McCloskey_1983_The_rhetoric_of_economics.pdf">pillar of the classical scientific approach</a>, reproduced on the pediment of the building of Social Sciences of the University of Chicago:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>To that <a href="http://www.manoa.hawaii.edu/ctahr/aheed/Carl/supplementary%20readings/McCloskey_1983_The_rhetoric_of_economics.pdf">Frank Knight</a> or <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/1520-6696%28198410%2920%3A4%3C319%3A%3AAID-JHBS2300200402%3E3.0.CO%3B2-3">Jacob Viner</a>, both professors of economics at the same university, would have answered:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Yes, and when you can express it in numbers your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Estimating the climate debt faces the same pitfalls – the risk of disaster could be trivialized, while discouraging goodwill. But if we are to reduce it, we first have to measure it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111682/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The climate issue cannot be considered less urgent than the social or economic crisis.Xavier Timbeau, Économiste à l'Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE), Sciences Po Adeline Gueret, Économiste à l’Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE), Sciences Po Aurélien Saussay, Économiste à l’Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE), Sciences Po Paul Malliet, Économiste à l’Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE), Sciences Po Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1079972018-12-03T17:10:25Z2018-12-03T17:10:25ZCOP24: 12 years from disaster – editors’ guide to what our academic experts say is needed to fight climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248518/original/file-20181203-194932-1qzcrbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C11%2C3161%2C2023&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NicoElNino / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>World leaders are gathering in Katowice, Poland, to negotiate the world’s response to climate change. The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP24) will last from December 3-14 and its primary aim is to reach agreement on how the Paris Agreement of 2015 will be implemented. In a year which saw <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-made-2018-european-heatwave-up-to-five-times-more-likely">record weather extremes</a> and an extraordinary announcement from the UN that we have only <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report">12 years to limit catastrophe</a>, the need for meaningful progress has never been greater.</p>
<p>To explain how the COP works and what it means for the fight against climate change, we asked our academic experts to share their views.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">COP24 venue Spodek arena in Katowice, Poland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/katowice-poland-oct-11-2018-spodek-1206686257?src=bBw2o45yM6xX7_nQgzbvXQ-1-0">Milosz Maslanka/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What will COP24 address?</h2>
<blockquote>
<p><em>The urgency to reach key milestones in the Paris Agreement and deal with climate change puts a lot of high expectations on COP24 – <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-heres-what-to-expect-107862">Federica Genovese, lecturer in government, University of Essex</a>.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li><p>Rulebook: this is the conference’s main goal – to establish consensus on how nations should implement the Paris Agreement and report their progress.</p></li>
<li><p>Emissions targets: COP24 is expected to resolve how emissions will be regulated, although it’s unlikely that sanctions for countries failing to meet their targets will be agreed on.</p></li>
<li><p>Finance: the rich countries need to find <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cbce4e2e-ee5b-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0">US$20 billion</a> to fulfil their pledge of providing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/09/world/asia/green-climate-fund-global-warming.html">US$100 billion a year</a> in funding to help poorer countries adapt to climate change by 2020. Agreeing when this will be paid is likely to be contentious. </p></li>
<li><p>Role of “big” states: the international political climate casts a long shadow over the talks. Domestic politics in <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-decision-to-quit-the-paris-agreement-may-be-his-worst-business-deal-yet-78780">the US</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-britain-has-taken-its-eye-off-the-paris-agreement-on-climate-change-103783">the UK</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-cold-war-climate-change-has-ignited-a-new-polar-power-struggle-107329">Russia</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/jair-bolsonaros-brazil-would-be-a-disaster-for-the-amazon-and-global-climate-change-104617">Brazil</a> threaten to undermine climate change leadership among larger emitters at COP24. </p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>How did we get here?</strong></p>
<p>1997: Creation of Kyoto Protocol, which set binding emissions targets. It failed as the US did not ratify it.</p>
<p>2009: COP15 in Copenhagen failed to yield any agreement on binding commitments.</p>
<p>2013: COP19 in Warsaw failed to finalise any binding treaty.</p>
<p>2015: COP21 in Paris generated considerable optimism with agreement reached on a legally binding action plan. But two years later, US president Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement.</p>
<h2>Where are we on the road to catastrophic climate change?</h2>
<blockquote>
<p><em>We aren’t facing the end of the world as envisaged by many environmentalists in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but if we do nothing to mitigate climate change then billions of people will suffer – <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-scientists-know-climate-change-is-happening-51421">Mark Maslin, professor of Earth system science, University College London</a></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The world’s poorest and most vulnerable people are most at risk from the effects of climate change, with many having to migrate from sea level rise, crop failure and pollution. Sahia – <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-migration-in-bangladesh-one-womans-perspective-107131">a woman from Bangladesh</a> – lost her home and her family’s livelihood.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/u75qiLAKVX8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">“My life has become a living hell” – Sahia. (by Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, senior researcher, Sussex University)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As global temperatures near 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the limit set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, scientists are increasingly anxious about how changes in the environment could work to accelerate the pace at which the rest of Earth is warming. </p>
<p>The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet and strange recent events here, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-arctic-is-turning-brown-because-of-weird-weather-and-it-could-accelerate-climate-change-107590">heathland turning brown</a>, could be a sign that previous natural stores of carbon are no longer working properly. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Black, observed temperatures; blue, probable range from decadal forecasts; red, retrospective forecasts; green, climate simulations of the 20th century. Global temperatures are fast approaching the 1.5°C limit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/decadal-forecast-2018">The Met Office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Methane released from Arctic permafrost and other rapid changes could take the matter of limiting greenhouse gas emissions out of our hands in the near future. A paper published in 2018 warned that runaway climate change could lead the planet into a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/hothouse-earth-heres-what-the-science-actually-does-and-doesnt-say-101341">Hothouse Earth</a>” state:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>A chain of self-reinforcing changes might potentially be initiated, eventually leading to very large climate warming and sea level rise – <a href="https://theconversation.com/hothouse-earth-heres-what-the-science-actually-does-and-doesnt-say-101341">Richard Betts, professor of climatology, University of Exeter</a></em> </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global map of potential tipping cascades, with arrows showing potential interactions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/07/31/1810141115.full.pdf">Steffen et al/PNAS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does the science demand we do to tackle climate change?</h2>
<p>Whatever is agreed at COP24 will be what is politically possible,
but experts urge us to bear in mind <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-heres-what-must-be-agreed-to-keep-warming-at-1-5-c-107968">what the science demands</a> to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and keeping global warming below or at 1.5°C.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>We’re failing to cut down our emissions, the technologies for NETs [Negative Emissions Technologies] don’t exist at any meaningful scale yet, and there are no political drivers in place to enforce their deployment. There is also a real risk of a dramatic rise in methane in the near future. COP24 will have to consider emergency plans – <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-heres-what-must-be-agreed-to-keep-warming-at-1-5-c-107968">Hugh Hunt, reader in engineering, University of Cambridge.</a></em></p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C requires mitigation (energy efficiency and renewable generation) and CO₂ removal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/negativeemissions.html">MCC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A more radical approach at COP24 could highlight the ample opportunity there is for slowing climate change by restoring habitats. For many countries, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-rewilding-is-essential-to-the-uks-commitments-on-climate-change-107541https://theconversation.com/cop24-rewilding-is-essential-to-the-uks-commitments-on-climate-change-107541">reforestation</a> is a more immediate way to slash emissions and make society happier and healthier in the process.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forest cover in England has fallen sharply over the last 1,000 years. Fighting climate change presents an urgent opportunity for reforestation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DEFRA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, while the climate has changed radically since global warming was first declared a man-made phenomenon <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">30 years ago</a>, international efforts to tackle it haven’t. Many experts argue that the involvement of commercial interests at COP24 limits what is possible for mitigating climate change.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>Ten years after the financial crisis, COP24 should not legitimise large financial investors as the architects of a transition where sustainability rhymes with profitability – <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-ten-years-on-from-lehman-brothers-we-cant-trust-finance-with-the-planet-107780">Tomaso Ferrando, lecturer in law, University of Bristol</a></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Representatives from pension funds, asset managers and large banks will be lobbying world leaders to favour investments in infrastructure and energy production as part of the transition towards a low-carbon economy.</p>
<p>Finance sector sees this transition as an opportunity to generate profit. If climate change is fought according to the rules of Wall Street, says Ferrando, people and projects will be supported only on the basis of whether they will make money.</p>
<p><strong>If COP24 can’t save us, what can?</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>At COP24 environmental movements have an opportunity to use their platform to highlight the relationship between economic growth and environmental impact, and even to discuss radical alternative futures that are not dependent on a growth-based economy – <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-climate-protesters-must-get-radical-and-challenge-economic-growth-107768">Christine Corlet Walker, PhD researcher in ecological economics, University of Surrey</a></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>To bring about radical action on the environment, many academics believe we need an equally radical social movement. They argue that protesters should seize the initiative to attack the root causes of climate change, such as economic growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Economic growth and carbon emissions are tightly linked. To limit one we must limit the other.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iea.org/newsroom/energysnapshots/co2-emissions-and-global-economy-growth-rates.html">International Energy Agency</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Debunking the climate change denialists</h2>
<p>2018 marks 30 years since climate change was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">first declared</a> a man-made phenomenon, during a congressional committee in Washington DC. The testimony of NASA climatologist James Hansen was met with both concern and scepticism at the time, but the science is in: anthropogenic climate change is incontrovertible. </p>
<p>Climate change is happening and is being caused by humans. This is the academic consensus, backed by science. But for climate change deniers: </p>
<p><strong>The 97%</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>97.5% of scientists who had published peer-reviewed research about climate change agreed with the consensus that global warming is human-caused (<a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/107/27/12107">2010 study</a> from Princeton University).</p></li>
<li><p>97.1% of relevant climate papers published over 21 years affirmed human-caused global warming (<a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024/meta">2013 study</a> involving multiple institutions). </p></li>
<li><p>97% consensus in published climate research found to be robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies (<a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002">2016 study</a> involving multiple institutions).</p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>What do the other 3% think?</strong></p>
<p>There is no consistent theme among the reasoning of the other 3%. Some say “there is no warming”, others suggest the sun, cosmic rays or the oceans as a reason.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Studies from 2004-2015 show near unanimous confidence in the scientific evidence for climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cook_et_al._(2016)_Studies_consensus.jpg">John Cook/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Why do some still not believe in human-caused climate change?</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>The fossil fuel industry has spent many millions of dollars on confusing the public about climate change. But the role of vested interests in climate science denial is only half the picture. The other significant player is political ideology – <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-fossil-fuelled-climate-denial-61273">John Cook, research fellow in climate change communication, George Mason University</a></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>An <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-1018-7">analysis</a> by American professor Robert Brulle found that from 2003 to 2010, organisations promoting climate misinformation received more than US$900m of corporate funding a year. From 2008, funding through untraceable donor networks (so-called “dark money ATM”) increased. This allowed corporations to fund climate science denial while hiding their support.</p>
<p>In 2016, an <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/113/1/92.short">analysis</a> of more than 40,000 texts from contrarian sources by Justin Farrell, another American professor, found that organisations who received corporate funding published more climate misinformation.</p>
<p>At an individual level, however, there is considerable evidence that shows that political ideology is the biggest predictor of climate science denial. People who fear the solutions to climate change, such as increased regulation of industry, are more likely to deny that there is a problem in the first place.</p>
<p>Consequently, groups promoting political ideology that opposes market regulation have been prolific sources of misinformation about climate change, as three American academics <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644010802055576">found</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Five Techniques used by climate change deniers to look out for:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Five characteristics of science denial.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dr John Cook</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ul>
<li><p>Fake experts: create the general impression of an ongoing debate by casting doubt on scientific consensus. </p></li>
<li><p>Logical fallacies: logically false arguments that lead to an invalid conclusion. These usually appear in myths, in the form of science misrepresentation or oversimplification.</p></li>
<li><p>Impossible expectations: demand unrealistic standards of proof before acting on the science. Any uncertainty is highlighted to question the consensus.</p></li>
<li><p>Cherry-picking: best described as wilfully ignoring a mountain of inconvenient evidence in favour of a small molehill that serves a desired purpose.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure> <img src="http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/Escalator500.gif"><figcaption>Going down the up escalator. Source: skepticalscience ‘The Escalator’. Data: NASA GISS</figcaption></figure>
<ul>
<li>Conspiracy theories: if the evidence is against you, then it has to be manipulated by mysterious forces in pursuit of a nefarious agenda. It is central to denial.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Relevant articles written by academics</h2>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warming-pause-was-a-myth-all-along-says-new-study-51208">Myth of global warming ‘pause’</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/degrowth-is-the-radical-post-brexit-future-the-uk-needs-106964">Degrowth is the radical future the UK needs</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-how-a-plastics-treaty-could-clean-up-our-oceans-107743">A plastics treaty could clean up our oceans</a></p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
We may only have 12 years to stop climate change and the landmark Paris Agreement of 2015 seems more in doubt than ever. What can we hope to come out of COP24?Khalil A. Cassimally, Head of Audience Insights, The Conversation InternationalJack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK editionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1078622018-12-03T05:35:52Z2018-12-03T05:35:52ZCOP24: what to expect<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248150/original/file-20181130-194941-1vwz3l1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">COP24 venue Spodek arena in Katowice, Poland.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/katowice-poland-oct-11-2018-spodek-1206686257?src=bBw2o45yM6xX7_nQgzbvXQ-1-0">Milosz Maslanka/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Representatives of almost all the countries on the planet are gathering in Katowice, Poland, for the 24th Conference of the Parties (COP24) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They will set the course for action on climate change by discussing the implementation plan for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/paris-agreement-23382">2015 Paris Agreement</a> which aims to coordinate international effort to halt warming at 1.5°C.</p>
<p>The COPs receive significant media attention and, sometimes, even <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/05/the-leo-effect-when-dicaprio-talked-climate-change-at-the-oscars-people-suddenly-cared/?utm_term=.8ada0167e371">notable public interest</a>. They take place every year as an opportunity for countries to collectively assess progress on dealing with climate change.</p>
<p>In 2018 the negotiations kick off barely two months after a <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">report</a> by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that the international community only has a 12-year window to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Clearly, 24 years after the first COP there is a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/global-warming-gridlock/C3CA34B8CF61FAAB6929ABF98FDF965E">deep disconnect</a> between how urgently the world needs effective climate policy and the pace of discussing global mechanisms on how to abate greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<h2>A history of failure</h2>
<p>The first COP meetings held in the 1990s led to the creation of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-kyoto-protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a> in 1997, which set binding emissions targets for developed countries over two “commitment periods” (2008-2012 and 2013-2020). However, the Kyoto agreement failed as the US did not ratify it and because several inconclusive conferences followed its implementation.</p>
<p>COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009 also failed to yield any agreement on binding commitments for the second commitment period. A few major countries agreed to a short accord recognising the need to limit global temperature rises to 2°C, but there were no substantial guidelines on how to do so. </p>
<p>Similarly, COP19 in Warsaw four years later did not finalise any binding treaty. It only recognised “a flexible ruling” on differentiated responsibilities and loss and damage. In Warsaw, <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/12/11/the-latest-un-climate-change-conference-in-warsaw-highlighted-the-role-that-smaller-states-can-play-in-negotiations/">the international community failed</a> to take essential steps for the future. Some even think that the 2013 conference <a href="http://climatetracker.org/cop24-katowice-expect-polands-4th-un-climate-summit/">cast some doubt</a> on the capacity of the Polish government to successfully lead COP24 in 2018.</p>
<p>Against this backdrop, COP21 in Paris in 2015 appeared to generate the most optimistic outcome in two decades of international climate negotiations. In Paris, the world leaders agreed on a general action plan that legally binds countries to have their progress tracked by technical experts. </p>
<p>The countries who signed up also agreed on a “global stocktake” – a process for reviewing collective progress towards achieving the long-term goals of the agreement. However, lots of details about the Paris Agreement still have to be nailed down. This is precisely what the international community seeks to do this December in Poland.</p>
<h2>The focus of COP24 and the likely outcomes</h2>
<p>The major objective for COP24 is to agree upon the so-called Paris “rulebook” – the details of how nations should implement the Paris Agreement and report their progress. Three major areas of political discussion will receive most attention: finance, emission targets, and the role of “big” states.</p>
<p><strong>Finance</strong></p>
<p>In 2015, richer countries pledged <a href="https://www.wri.org/news/2016/10/statement-developed-countries%25E2%2580%2599-roadmap-shows-path-100-billion-climate-finance-goal">US$100 billion a year by 2020</a> for poorer nations to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, the climate funding is still about <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cbce4e2e-ee5b-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0">US$20 billion short</a>. COP24 delegates will need to discuss in more detail on when the rest of the money will be generated before committing to the rulebook. </p>
<p>Perhaps even more importantly, rules for where that money comes from, and particularly whether international loans are acceptable, still have to be agreed on. Because finance is closely linked to issues of justice and fairness in the international system, it is unlikely that this discussion will lead to more generous levels of climate aid – although there is space for improvement, and some past conferences have actually provided <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/12/11/the-latest-un-climate-change-conference-in-warsaw-highlighted-the-role-that-smaller-states-can-play-in-negotiations/">small but significant advances</a> on this front.</p>
<p><strong>Emission targets</strong></p>
<p>COP24 also needs to set some form of flexible yet comparable rules that will govern the Paris Agreement. One groundbreaking feature of the Paris Agreement is that all parties agreed to commit to national contributions to climate action. In other words, the agreement is based on a bottom-up process in which countries largely determine their own contributions, and then act upon them.</p>
<p>This COP may settle on some basic strategies for verifying climate actions, but it is very unlikely that the international community will agree on any mechanisms for delivering sanctions to states that do not meet their targets, because of the high sensitivity towards <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/110/34/13763">financial costs for non-abatement</a>.</p>
<p><strong>The role of ‘big’ states</strong></p>
<p>Finally, while “small” countries will have an important role to play at the negotiations <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/12/11/the-latest-un-climate-change-conference-in-warsaw-highlighted-the-role-that-smaller-states-can-play-in-negotiations/">as usual</a>, there are several question marks around the large countries that need to bear a lot of the efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>It will not help that President Donald Trump, who intends to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, decided in 2017 to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/06/02/trump-will-stop-paying-into-the-green-climate-fund-he-has-no-idea-what-it-is/">cancel climate funding for poor nations</a>. The US position at COP24 will also affect China and India, which are likely to continue <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/11/08/china-wont-back-indian-calls-climate-talks-pressure-rich-countries/">disagreeing</a> with rich countries on some fundamental issues. Additionally, the domestic politics of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/16/climate-change-champions-still-pursuing-devastating-policies-new-study-reveals">Russia</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/15/brazil-foreign-minister-ernesto-araujo-climate-change-marxist-plot">Brazil</a> point to more uncertainty for cooperation.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead from COP24</h2>
<p>The urgency to reach key milestones in the Paris Agreement and deal with climate change puts a lot of high expectations on COP24. Unfortunately, many challenges stand ahead of international climate cooperation. </p>
<p>Approaching the negotiations with the right level of reason and determination will be critical to manage expectations and avoid any media “hysteria”, as
media coverage <a href="http://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-362">can hurt</a> the climate talks by shifting attention from the policy issues to unproductive discussions of whether climate change is influenced by humans. </p>
<p>For a credible and valid rulebook, we need frank conversations about energy transition and compensating the “losers” of climate policies, such as <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/interests-norms-and-support-for-the-provision-of-global-public-goods-the-case-of-climate-cooperation/C5A29DE5F7F1181C7567149DC7ACDE9B">people working in high-emission sectors</a>. </p>
<p>There might be the opportunity to do so in Katowice, an industrial hub and coal-mining city. We will see if this COP will highlight the necessary transition from fossil fuel industry to renewable solutions as the negotiations unravel.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107862/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Federica Genovese does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change conferences can be bewildering. Here’s a recap of how we got here, what to look out for at COP24 and what comes next.Federica Genovese, Lecturer in Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1030242018-09-24T18:49:30Z2018-09-24T18:49:30ZThe fight against climate change: how can we limit the damage to the global economy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235838/original/file-20180911-144455-15igmsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C1198%2C671&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/fr/image-photo/financial-crisis-323559347?src=w3dyoOaSB6IESd6MaTjWIA-1-1">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The international community’s ambition to fight against climate change comes at a cost: between US$50,000 billion and US$90,000 billion over the next 15 years according to the bottom-end estimates of economist Adair Turner, and the top-end figures from economists at the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate and its New Climate Economy project. By comparison, annual world GDP totals nearly US$80,000 billion.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://newclimateeconomy.report/2016/">2016 New Climate Economy</a> report indicates that, each year, US$2,000 billion will be needed for the global North and US$4,000 billion for the global South to finance the green infrastructure that would help move us closer to a carbon-neutral world early enough to limit global warming to no more than +2°C above the pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>So can the private sector cope with this level of spending?</p>
<h2>What pace for the energy transition?</h2>
<p>According to the World Bank, private debt, excluding financial institutions, now totals US$110,000 billion, equivalent to 138% of world GDP. Added to this is public debt bordering on US$60,000 billion, or around 75% of GDP.</p>
<p>Yet, as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney underlined in a now-famous speech, an over-hasty transition to a low-carbon economy could jeopardise financial stability. On the other hand, if the transition is too sluggish, we may run the risk of overshooting the irreversible ecological thresholds (especially for soil erosion).</p>
<p>So, at what speed do the private and public sectors need to move ahead?</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/V5c-eqNxeSQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Extract of Mark Carney’s speech, Governor of the Bank of England, in 2015.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916309569">May 2018 paper</a>, published in the journal <em>Ecological Economics</em> focussing on the <a href="https://www.afd.fr/en/page-programme-de-recherche/gemmes-new-modelling-tool-incorporates-energy-transition?prevId=3004">GEMMES</a> (General Monetary and Multisectoral Macrodynamics for the Ecological Shift) model, we offer fresh insights into the kind of compromises needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.</p>
<p>The GEMMES model functions at a planetary scale and combines a financial dynamic, projections for climate disturbances, and the United Nations median demographic scenario (9 billion people in 2050). As with any foresight modelling tool, our figures are only indicative given the still huge uncertainty on how the environment and the economy interact.</p>
<h2>The risk of economic collapse is there</h2>
<p>In the “laissez-faire” scenario, where no additional public policy kicks in to encourage the productive sector to accelerate its investment in green infrastructure, we see a global warming of nearly +4°C in 2100. The +2°C threshold is crossed as early as 2050 as no emissions abatement efforts are pursued.</p>
<p>The damages brought on by this warming cause accelerating capital depreciation and a slowdown in economic activity.</p>
<p>According to the consultancy firm, Carbone 4, <a href="http://www.carbone4.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Publication-Carbone-4-2017-a-record-year-for-climate_web.pdf">2017 is already a record year</a>: the costs of weather-related disasters have never been so high. Those that could be estimated topped US$400 billion. A significant share of these costs is covered by the insurance industry, with a US$135 billion pay-out according to the German reinsurer Munich Re.</p>
<p>Our GEMMES simulations show that the reduction in economic activity linked to both climate and investment in mitigation technologies is reflected in weaker growth, fewer jobs and an increase in private debt.</p>
<p>Given the margins of uncertainty when it comes to quantifying the economic impact of global warming, we tested several hypotheses for the expected extent of damages.</p>
<p>Taking the most pessimistic hypotheses – generally viewed as the most realistic by climatologists – we even observe scenarios of economic collapses absent any proactive public intervention. These are similar to the scenarios that emerged in the foresight analysis, built on reasons other than global warming, by Donald Meadows’ team for their <a href="https://collections.dartmouth.edu/content/deliver/inline/meadows/pdf/meadows_ltg-001.pdf">1972 report to the Club of Rome</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219087/original/file-20180515-195318-br9qf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219087/original/file-20180515-195318-br9qf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219087/original/file-20180515-195318-br9qf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219087/original/file-20180515-195318-br9qf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219087/original/file-20180515-195318-br9qf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219087/original/file-20180515-195318-br9qf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219087/original/file-20180515-195318-br9qf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219087/original/file-20180515-195318-br9qf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Macroeconomic trajectories, absent proactive public policies, according to the different scenarios considered in the GEMMES model: low damages (blue line), low damages impacting capital (violet line) and high damages impacting capital (red line).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GEMMES/AFD</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Carbon pricing is not a cure-all</h2>
<p>So how can we avoid such a catastrophic scenario?</p>
<p>Carbon pricing could send the productive sector a price signal to spur investment that would help reduce the carbon intensity of the economy. On this count, one thing appears certain: if industry fails to deploy parallel efforts on carbon sequestration, carbon pricing – at whatever level – will not keep the planet under the 2°C threshold.</p>
<p>Without negative emissions, meaning the artificial re-absorption of greenhouse gases already emitted into the atmosphere, it is likely already too late to keep the Paris Agreement on track – an opinion widely upheld by the climatologist community. In fact, achieving this objective would require completing the energy transition around the year 2020 with a carbon price in the region of US$540. If the transition were wholly financed by the private sector, this would trigger an economic recession of around -5% of world GDP – which is a tough situation politically speaking. This would be accompanied by a sharp hike in the level of private debt, which would rise to almost +130 percentage points of GDP compared to 2016.</p>
<p>On the other hand, a more measured carbon-price trajectory in the short run, in the vicinity of US$100 in 2040 rising to around US$450 in the 2050s, would certainly safeguard the global economy against excessive forced degrowth during the transition. However, it would also push up global warming to around+3°C by the end of the century, and entail some consequences that are partly incalculable.</p>
<p>What’s more, this trajectory would not do away with a still hefty level of private debt, since it advocates proactive public policies such as subsidies for green investment as recommended in the <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/54ff9c5ce4b0a53decccfb4c/t/59244eed17bffc0ac256cf16/1495551740633/CarbonPricing_Final_May29.pdf">Stern-Stiglitz Commission’s report on carbon prices</a>.</p>
<h2>The choice between GDP growth and the fight against global warming</h2>
<p>The temporary trade-offs between GDP growth and the fight against global warming reappear in all of our scenarios. This is visible, for instance, in the figure below showing a median hypothesis of the severity of weather-related damages: each pair of parameters (a, b) corresponds to a carbon price trajectory, where parameter (a) drives the long-run increase of the carbon price and parameter (b) reflects the intensity of the short-run increase (at the start of the simulation) of the carbon price.</p>
<p>Parameters (a) and (b) should be chosen so as to keep as close as possible to the +2°C, i.e. in the area closest to the dark green in the top right corner of the left-hand panel. Unfortunately, this is also the red-grey area in the right-hand panel, which indicates a forced degrowth of the world economy during the energy transition.</p>
<p>Here, the dilemma pointed up by Mark Carney is illustrated by the need to implement a carbon trajectory that will keep the economy in the yellow area of the left-hand panel, which corresponds to a temperature increase of between +2°C et +2.5°C.</p>
<p>However fast we transition to a carbon-neutral world, these graphs show that trade-offs between growth and climate change have to be made during the energy transition.</p>
<p>Keep in mind, however, that productivity gains, like <a href="http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_628654.pdf">job creation</a> in the renewable energy sectors and the circular economy (recycling, repair, rental), are to be expected from this transformation, and could temper these trade-offs.</p>
<h2>Warding off deflation, promoting “green” public spending</h2>
<p>In all of the cases studied, the world economy turns out to be more resilient to global warming if there is less private debt, less unemployment and a higher share of wages in GDP.</p>
<p>The latter finding suggests that the debate on the distribution of value-added between capital and labour is not disconnected from the climate issue. As far as we know, the mechanism underlying this finding is new. In fact, climate disruption seems to push the world economy toward deflation, in line with a well-known macroeconomic pattern: stagnation brings about a decrease in prices and real GDP, which leads to a rise in under-employment and debt, then to an erosion of the share of wages in national income. In our analysis, a redistribution policy favouring labour income seems a natural response to this deflationary spiral, and thus to the impact of global warming.</p>
<p>The final lesson from our simulations: if public financing contributes to some of the green investment expenditure, carbon pricing in the spirit of the <a href="https://www.carbonpricingleadership.org/report-of-the-highlevel-commission-on-carbon-prices/">Stern-Stiglitz report</a> (with a price corridor centred around US$44 per tonne in 2020, US$140 in 2030 and US$300 in 2040) would not only enable us to remain close to +2.5°C by the end of the century, but also avoid the slippery slope of deflation.</p>
<p>With no additional public spending, on the other hand, this macro-climatic trajectory seems already out of reach: carbon pricing certainly provides the private sector with an incentive to finance the green infrastructure we need, but it does not lighten the burden of the corresponding private debt. Were the State to bear of this burden, even partly, this would of course be to the detriment of public finances. But, as we have seen, their situation is currently less degraded than that of the private sector.</p>
<p>To boot, should deflation threaten, public debt is not necessarily the problem and may actually be part of the solution. By combating both the macro-financial impact of global warming and its anthropogenic causes, a public contribution to financing the transition would achieve both objectives in one fell swoop.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>A too rapid transition to a low-carbon economy would threaten financial stability. A slow transition would run the risk of exceeding irreversible ecological thresholds.Gaël Giraud, Chef économiste, Agence française de développement (AFD)Florent Mc Isaac, Économiste-modélisateur, Agence française de développement (AFD)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/777612017-05-16T19:59:49Z2017-05-16T19:59:49ZThe bitcoin and blockchain: energy hogs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169353/original/file-20170515-7009-1u9qu52.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C128%2C1298%2C747&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many bitcoins equals a heavy environmental burden. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/fdecomite/9932939154/in/photolist-jh3G25-jh1EUQ-jgW4ZL-ga8y35-jh7ZwY-j1eXrM-gbkEFc-g8JUKC-gg1s9Z-gbC9NH-gaaMuQ-gj6vZM-g8VdSj-j13mL6">Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The digital world still lives under the illusion that it is intangible. As governments gathered in Paris at COP21 in 2015, pledging to reduce their carbon emissions to keep global warming below 2°C, the spread of digital technology continued to take place without the slightest concern for the environment. The current popularity of the bitcoin and blockchain provide the perfect example.</p>
<p>The principle of the <a href="https://blogrecherche.wp.imt.fr/en/2016/06/06/what-is-blockchain/">blockchain</a> can be summarized as follows: each transaction is recorded in thousands of accounting ledgers, and each one is scrutinized by a different observer. Yet no mention is made of the energy footprint of this unprecedented ledger of transactions, or of the energy footprint of the new “virtual currency” (the bitcoin) it manages.</p>
<h2>Electricity consumption equivalent to that of Ireland</h2>
<p>In a 2014 study, Karl J. O’Dwyer and David Malone <a href="https://karlodwyer.github.io/publications/pdf/bitcoin_KJOD_2014.pdf">showed</a> that the consumption of the bitcoin network was likely to be approximately equivalent to the electricity consumption of a country like Ireland, i.e. an estimated 3 GW.</p>
<p>Imagine the consequences if this type of bitcoin currency becomes widespread. The global money supply in circulation is estimated at $11,000 billion. The corresponding energy consumption should therefore exceed 4,000 GW, which is eight times the electricity consumption of France and twice that of the United States. It is not without reason that a recent headline on the Novethic website proclaimed “The bitcoin, a burden for the climate”.</p>
<h2>What do the numbers say?</h2>
<p>Since every blockchain is a ledger (and therefore a file) that exists in many copies, the computer resources required for the calculation, transmission and storage of the information increases, as well as the energy footprint, even if improvements in the underlying technologies are taken into account.</p>
<p>The two important factors here are the length of the blockchain and the number of copies. For the bitcoin, the blockchain’s length grew very quickly: according to <a href="https://www.quandl.com/">Quandl</a>, it was 27 GB in early 2015 and rose to 74 by mid-2016.</p>
<p>The bitcoin, whose system is modeled on that of the former gold standard currencies, is generated through complex computer transactions, which become increasingly complex over time, as for an increasingly depleted goldmine in which production costs rise.</p>
<p>In 2015, Genesis Mining revealed in <em>Business Insider</em> that it was one of the most energy-consuming companies in Iceland, with electricity costs of <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/photos-iceland-bitcoin-mine-genesis-mining-cloud-2015-8">60 dollars per “extracted” bitcoin</a> – despite benefiting from a low price per kWh and a favorable climate.</p>
<p>Finally, we can also imagine all the “smart contract” type applications supported by the Internet of Things. This will also have a considerable impact on energy and the environment, considering the manufacturing requirements, the electrical supply (often autonomous, and therefore complicated and not very efficient) and disposal.</p>
<p>However, although the majority of connected objects will probably not support smart contracts, a very large amount of connected objects are anticipated in the near future, with a total likely to reach <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/the-internet-of-things-sizing-up-the-opportunity">30 billion</a> in 2020, according to McKinsey, the American consulting firm.</p>
<p>The bitcoin is just one of the many systems being developed without concern for their energy impact. In response to the climate issue, their promoters act as if it does not exist, or as if alternative energy solutions existed.</p>
<h2>An increasingly high price to pay</h2>
<p>Yet decarbonizing the energy system is a vast issue, involving major risks. And the proposed technical solutions in this area offer no guarantees of being able to handle the massive and global increase in energy consumption, while still reducing greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Digital technology already accounts for approximately 15% of the national electricity consumption in France, and consumes as much energy, on the global scale, as aviation. Today, nothing suggests that there will be a decrease in the mass to be absorbed, nor is there any indication that digital technology will enable a reduction in consumption, as industrialists in this sector have confirmed (see the publication titled <a href="https://blogrecherche.wp.imt.fr/2013/10/14/fabrice-flipo-co-signe-la-face-cachee-du-numerique-un-ouvrage-paru-aux-editions-lechappee/"><em>La Face cachée du numérique</em></a> – “The hidden face of digital technology”).</p>
<p>The massive decarbonation of energy faces many challenges: the reliability of the many different carbon sequestration techniques proposed, the “energy cannibalism” involved <a href="http://www.iddri.org/Themes/FRA_DDPP_report.pdf">in the launch</a> of renewable energies, which require energy to be manufactured and have technical, social, and political limitations (for example, the various sources of renewable energy require large surface areas, yet the space that could potentially be used is largely occupied)… The challenges are huge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77761/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrice Flipo has received financing from the Fondation Mines Télécom and the Caisse des dépôts as well as support for work on e-waste and "green TICs".</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michel Berne ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The digital world is taking more and more space in our lives… and dramatically increasing electrical use. It’s a serious problem given the urgent need fight climate change.Fabrice Flipo, Maitre de conférences en philosophie, Institut Mines-Télécom Business School Michel Berne, Economiste, Directeur d'études, Institut Mines-Télécom Business School Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/736622017-02-28T21:55:32Z2017-02-28T21:55:32ZCoal comfort: Pacific islands on collision course with Australia over emissions<p>Uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of a warming world, Pacific island countries have long been considered the front-line of climate change, so it’s not surprising that they are also leading the fight to tackle the problem. </p>
<p>These tiny nations have vowed to challenge major polluters to cut emissions and, this year, they have coal exports from their biggest neighbour firmly in their sights. </p>
<p>For the first time, a Pacific island country is head of global negotiations aiming to limit “dangerous interference” with the Earth’s climate system. Fiji, which last week marked the first <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/02/20/year-after-cyclone-winston-fiji-calls-global-action-climate-change">anniversary of the devastation caused by the strongest cyclone ever recorded in the southern hemisphere</a>, has vowed to use its presidency of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to make the world <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/world-needs-to-sit-up-and-take-notice-of-climate-change/">sit up and take notice</a>.</p>
<p>This must be a matter of concern in Australia’s capital, Canberra; Fiji’s Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama is an outspoken critic of his neighbour’s climate policy. He has labelled Australia a prominent member of the “<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/fijis-bainimarama-blasts-australias-coalition-of-the-selfish/news-story/a49a7be2d33585cea3bb48174a006424">coalition of the selfish</a>” – a group of industrialised nations that put the welfare of their carbon-polluting industries before the environment, and even the survival of Pacific island countries.</p>
<p>It’s difficult to deny that Bainimarama has a point. Australia is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2013/oct/14/australia-wealth-top-world">one of the wealthiest nations on earth</a>, and the world’s largest coal exporter. The country <a href="http://minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/frydenberg/speeches/opportunities-and-challenges-australias-resources-and-energy-sectors">has doubled exports of coal</a> – the dirtiest of fossil fuels – over the past decade. </p>
<p>Far from scaling back on coal as part of global efforts to reduce emissions, Australia is currently planning <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/603226ec-bb7f-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080">public subsidies for new coal mines</a> and considering financing new <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-02/clean-energy-money-could-fund-coal-power-stations-morrison-says/8234118">coal-fired power plants</a>.</p>
<h2>A diplomatic challenge</h2>
<p>Abroad, Australian diplomats are tasked with improving coal’s reputation. Late last year, for example, they <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/68ed504a-c110-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354">lobbied the newly established Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank</a> to ensure multilateral finance would be directed toward so-called “clean coal” power plants in the region.</p>
<p>Australia’s aggressive promotion of coal has angered Pacific island governments, who have repeatedly <a href="http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/283565/small-islands-call-for-global-moratorium-on-coal-mines">called for a global moratorium on the development of new coal mines</a>. In October 2015, Bainimarama issued a special plea for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to “<a href="http://www.fiji.gov.fj/Media-Center/Speeches/HON-PM-BAINIMARAMA-SPEECH-AT-THE-CLOSING-OF-PACIFI.aspx">impose a moratorium on the development of further reserves of Australian coal</a>.”</p>
<p>Australia’s continued promotion of coal is also firmly at odds with the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">2015 Paris Agreement</a>, which aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C above the pre-industrial average. To have a reasonable chance of achieving that goal, <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/most-fossil-fuels-must-stay-in-the-ground-new-study/">there’s little doubt the vast majority of the world’s coal reserves must stay in the ground</a>.</p>
<p>Wary that Fiji and other Pacific island countries will <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-11/marshall-islands-slams-australias-carbon-emissions-targets/6688974?pfmredir=sm">again target Australia</a> at the COP23 climate negotiations in December 2017, Australian ambassador for the environment Patrick Suckling was dispatched to island capitals in February 2017 <a href="http://samoaobserver.ws/en/09_02_2017/local/16685/Ambassador-assures-Samoa.htm">to promote Australia’s climate change “credentials”</a>.</p>
<p>Having been set the task of promoting carbon emissions to people on low-lying atolls – surely the 21st century equivalent of selling ice to Eskimos – Ambassador Suckling visited Tuvalu, Samoa and Fiji to explain that “clean coal” would be <a href="http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=388360">part of the world’s energy mix for decades</a>.</p>
<p>Perhaps it’s not surprising that he was happy to promote the benefits of coal; in his previous role as ambassador to India, Suckling encouraged the Indian firm Adani to invest in a new coal mine in the Australian state of Queensland. In July 2014, he described the proposed Carmichael mine, which, if completed, will be the largest coal mine in the southern hemisphere, as an “<a href="http://india.highcommission.gov.au/ndli/pa2314.html">outstanding project</a>”.</p>
<p>Suckling’s island tour, and his support for coal, <a href="http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/programmes/datelinepacific/audio/201833311/pican-says-australian-climate-claim-not-rational">sparked outrage</a> from Pacific island civil society and church groups, who penned an <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/an-open-letter-from-the-pacific-islands-climate-action_us_5897a1dfe4b061551b3e0049">open letter to the ambassador</a> calling on the Australian government to do more to reduce emissions.</p>
<h2>Wolves and sheep</h2>
<p>While in Fiji, Ambassador Suckling suggested Australia would <a href="http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=388207">work closely with the country</a> to ensure the 2017 global climate negotiations would be a success. He also made much of Australia’s role as co-chair of the UN’s Green Climate Fund, <a href="http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=387422">suggesting new finance would help Pacific communities</a> build resilience to a changing climate.</p>
<p>This year, Australia co-chairs the Green Climate Fund with another nation that has the dubious honour of being a leading exporter of carbon: Saudi Arabia. By 2020, Australia is expected become <a href="http://minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/frydenberg/speeches/opportunities-and-challenges-australias-resources-and-energy-sectors">the world’s largest exporter</a> of both coal and natural gas. </p>
<p>When that happens, Australia’s total carbon exports look <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/07/23/truth-about-australias-coal-industry-and-climate-policy/14691960003525">set to exceed that of Saudi Arabia</a> – the world’s largest oil exporter.</p>
<p>Pacific island states are no doubt wary of wolves in sheep’s clothing. They are well aware that both Australia and Saudi Arabia have a history of dragging their feet on global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. In the lead up to negotiations for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, for example, Australia was isolated with Saudi Arabia (and other OPEC members) and Russia as <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=W8vyCAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=Sebastian+Oberthur+and+Hermann+Ott+springer+the+kyoto+protocol+international+climate+change+policy&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CB0Q6AEwAGoVChMIuueGlM_exgIVw12mCh2hxgpM#v=onepage&q=Sebastian%20Oberthur%20and%20Hermann%20Ott%20springer%20the%20kyoto%20protocol%20international%20climate%20change%20policy&f=false">the minority of laggard states</a>. </p>
<p>At the climate negotiations that followed, the country insisted on special exemptions - subsequently known as “the Australia clause” - that <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-hit-its-kyoto-target-but-it-was-more-a-three-inch-putt-than-a-hole-in-one-44731">allowed it to meet international commitments</a> even while domestic emissions from burning fossil fuels increased. Concerned with safeguarding its oil exports, Saudi Arabia has long been <a href="http://muse.jhu.edu/article/252606">accused of outright obstruction</a> in climate negotiations. </p>
<p>Pacific island governments are familiar with <a href="https://theconversation.com/pacific-pariah-how-australias-love-of-coal-has-left-it-out-in-the-diplomatic-cold-64963">Australia’s repeated attempts to weaken their position</a> at UN climate negotiations. Indeed, at each major milestone in the global talks, Australia has exercised an effective veto power at the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) - the region’s premier annual political meeting - to water down positions put forward by its small, impoverished neighbours. </p>
<p>In 1997, for example, island leaders wanted to issue a declaration calling for a global agreement that included legally binding commitments to reduce emissions. But they were “<a href="http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD/9709/20/pacific.forum/index.html?eref=sitesearch">bullied into submission</a>” by then Australian prime minister John Howard, who secured a <a href="http://www.forumsec.org/resources/uploads/attachments/documents/1997%20Communique-Rarotonga%2017-19%20Sep1.pdf">toned-down declaration</a>.</p>
<p>In the lead-up to negotiations for the 2015 Paris Agreement, Australian officials again worked hard to ensure the <a href="http://www.forumsec.org/resources/uploads/attachments/documents/Annex1_PIF_Leaders_Declaration_on_Climate_Change_Action,%2010Sept2015.pdf">Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ statement</a> accommodated Australia’s position in the global talks. </p>
<p>Most pointedly, the 2015 Forum leaders’ declaration on Climate Change Action failed to repeat earlier <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-pacific-islands-forum-declaration-on-climate-change-consensus-at-the-cost-of-strategy-on-the-road-to-paris/">calls by Pacific island leaders</a> for a global agreement to limit warming to below 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average. </p>
<p>Pacific island states insist that warming beyond this 1.5 degrees threshold would <a href="http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/317697/pacific-pushing-for-1-point-5-degree-commitment-at-cop-22">threaten the very survival of low-lying states</a> in the region, such as
Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands.</p>
<h2>A vital role</h2>
<p>Fiji has vowed to use its UNFCCC presidency <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/cop-23-bonn/how-fiji-is-impacted-by-climate-change/">to maintain the momentum</a> that was established by the 2015 Paris Agreement. Widely seen as a diplomatic breakthrough, that agreement represents a shared political commitment to reducing carbon emissions. </p>
<p>But global climate talks now stand at an important crossroads. Officials are still finalising the rule book to accompany the agreement, even as the first global stocktake of pledges made under it is planned for next year. </p>
<p>It’s crucial that ambitious and transparent pledges are made. Polluting nations must reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly, before catastrophic rates of warming are locked in.</p>
<p>Pacific island countries have a special role to play in convincing the international community to start the needed shift to a zero emissions global economy. With the world’s eyes on them at COP23, which is already being labelled the “Pacific COP”, island leaders have the opportunity to highlight what must be done to give low-lying Pacific countries a fighting chance at a future.</p>
<p>But first they must continue to shine the spotlight on their recalcitrant neighbour, and take care to avoid being muzzled by Australia’s “climate diplomacy”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73662/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wesley Morgan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Australia looks to expand the coal industry at home, it’s also ramping up regional diplomacy aimed at avoiding condemnation by those at the front line of climate change.Wesley Morgan, Lecturer in Politics and International Affairs, The University of the South PacificLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/701852016-12-15T07:26:00Z2016-12-15T07:26:00ZPeople power: how communities and cities can help save the environment<p>A year after <a href="http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/">COP21</a> and the adoption of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris__agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a>, international policymakers are still struggling to convert targets into action. This is clearly indicated by the title of the recent followup COP in Marrakech: <a href="http://cop22.ma/en/">Turn the Promise of Paris into Action</a>.</p>
<p>But as the international community putters along, cities and local communities are already staking out the front lines of the fight against climate change.</p>
<h2>Cities take the lead</h2>
<p>Over the years, sub-national actors, such as cities and regions, have acquired increasing weight in international negotiations. Policymakers and scholars alike acknowledge cities’ vulnerability to, and share of responsibility in, environmental degradation. As the recent <a href="https://mayorssummit2016.c40.org/">C40 Mayors Summit</a> in Mexico City demonstrated, mayors of the world’s metropolises are also interested in creating low-carbon and resilient urban futures. </p>
<p>Because local governments control key sectors of environmental policy, and have high concentrations of people, economic activity and political clout, cities are a necessary well positioned to design <a href="https://www.humphreyfellowship.org/system/files/Cities%20and%20the%20Governing%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf">innovative climate change solutions</a>.</p>
<p>In Tokyo, for example, the metropolitan government set up the first city-level cap-and-trade system for <a href="http://www.kankyo.metro.tokyo.jp/en/climate/cap_and_trade.html">buildings’ energy efficiency</a>. If the biggest energy-using facilities fail to meet specified targets, they must buy credits from compliant buildings that can sell their surplus credits. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Citizens enjoy Bogotá’s weekly ‘Ciclovia’ – car-free Sunday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/94/Ciclovia_Bogotana_en_Avenida_Chile.JPG/1280px-Ciclovia_Bogotana_en_Avenida_Chile.JPG">Lombana/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>In South Korea, Seoul’s <a href="http://english.seoul.go.kr/policy-information/urban-planning/seoul-station-7017-project/1-seoul-station-7017-project/">Station 7017 Project</a> will convert an old elevated road into a pedestrian path that connects the city centre to other districts and to Seoul train station. This will not only help revitalise certain city districts, it will also add green space to this dense metropolitan area.</p>
<p>Then there’s the German city of Hamburg. It is implementing an ambitious plan to make the city car-free within 20 years by developing a major green network of bike and pedestrian paths that link the city to its periphery, as well as to parks, playgrounds, cemeteries and other public spaces. In addition to making cars unnecessary, the greenways will improve resilience to floods and natural disasters, and <a href="http://www.hamburg.de/gruenes-netz/">absorb more carbon dioxide</a>. </p>
<h2>People power</h2>
<p>People have immense power to tackle climate change. And this is true especially in the vital energy sector. As <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421506004824">scholarly literature has demonstrated</a>, “community power” – fostering citizen participation in renewable energy projects – eases their implementation, reduces energy demand, and may ultimately reduce greenhouse gases. </p>
<p>This idea was the inspiration for the recent <a href="http://www.wcpc2016.jp/en/">World Community Power Conference</a>, held in Fukushima, Japan from November 3 to 4, the same time as the Paris Agreement’s ratification. At the event, which was the first of its kind, participants from academia, local government, civil society, business and even schools explored how communities can be agents for increasing sustainability at the local level. </p>
<p>Organised by the <a href="http://communitypower.jp/">Japan Community Power Association</a>, the <a href="http://www.isep.or.jp/en">Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies</a> and the <a href="http://www.wwindea.org">World Wind Energy Association</a>, the attendees addressed topics from energy democracy and regional cooperation to community power’s value for developing countries. Barriers to cooperation between local governments, citizens and business were also tackled.</p>
<p>Fukushima, where a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/mar/11/earthquake-tsunami-death-japan">2011 earthquake and tsunami</a> caused a nuclear plant meltdown, was a highly symbolic host location. In the aftermath of that disaster, local leaders decided to adopt the target of having <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2014/01/31/fukushima-to-use-100-renewable-energy-by-2040/">100% renewable energy by 2040</a>. To do so, residents, businesses and local governments are working together to make solar and wind their primary energy sources. </p>
<p>This collaboration takes the form of several community projects. In the Fukushima Airport Solar Power Project, citizens were <a href="http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20140616/358981/?ST=msbe&P=2">partial financial investors</a>) in the purchase and installation of solar panels to provide about 1.2 megawatts of electricity to the airport. Another initiative within the prefecture, the Fukushima Ryozen Citizens’ Joint Power Plant, also used citizen funds to help local farmers install a solar farm. It provides about <a href="http://www.japanfs.org/en/news/archives/news_id034604.html">50 kilowatts of power</a>.</p>
<p>Community power, then, is one way to enhance renewable energy use and phase out fossil fuels. Because it also entails stronger energy security, it necessarily emphasises democratic engagement and local autonomy. Community power may also carry such significant socioeconomic benefits as job creation, community well-being, new revenue sources, solutions to fuel scarcity or even <a href="http://www.foeeurope.org/community-Power-benefits-briefing-011213">lower energy tariffs</a>. </p>
<h2>Just what is community power?</h2>
<p>There is no common definition of community power but, at a basic level, it implies citizen participation in the production and use of a sustainable energy system, with some degree of control over the activity. </p>
<p>When citizens have ownership – at least partial – of renewable energy plants, by for instance, holding shares in a cooperative, that’s community power. If citizens participate in the planning, installation and operational decisions of an energy company, by exercising strategic voting rights as board members, for example, that, too, constitutes community power. </p>
<p>And communities that receive the socioeconomic benefits of their energy sector when the benefits of the company are reinvested in the activity, also have such power.</p>
<p>In such scenarios, citizens cease to be mere consumers and become producers as well as consumers. This broad definition expands the range of forms community power could include. And that’s important because local particularities as well as <a href="http://www.clientearth.org/reports/community-power-report-250614.pdf">numerous legal and policy obstacles</a> remain powerful barriers to developing community power. </p>
<p>Sharing local experiences also helps other communities forge paths forward. For instance, in Denmark, a law makes it mandatory for consumers or municipal cooperatives to own <a href="http://www.communitypower.eu/en/denmark.html">district heating</a>. The same provision previously applied to electricity production, and when the European energy market liberalised rules so that private competitors began operating in the renewable energy sector, locals protested. The episode highlights how citizen involvement can facilitate the development and embrace of renewable energy projects.</p>
<p>It also shows how strategically structuring the energy market will be important to growing sustainable systems. The recent <a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-4009_en.htm">Clean Energy for all Europeans</a> package, which supports the idea that “consumers are active and central players in the energy markets of the future”, seems well informed by the market side of community power.</p>
<h2>The Fukushima declaration</h2>
<p>The declaration that emerged from Fukushima meeting – <a href="http://www.wcpc2016.jp/en/about/declaration">For the future of the earth</a> – intends to make community power the “prevailing model of the future renewable energy supply all over the world.” </p>
<p>To meet that goal, participants committed to enhancing communication around best practices, working with local governments on renewable energy-focused master plans and engaging in politics nationally and internationally to facilitate the right development conditions. They will also seek to promote community power in developing countries through knowledge transfer.</p>
<p>This declaration is, of course, a soft instrument; it cannot legally compel action. Still, it sheds light on important intersections between people and politics in the fight against climate change. Community power efforts will not only be key to meeting the Paris Agreement objective of <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/">staying below a 2°C temperature rise</a> over pre-industrial levels, it may also make governance structures more democratic.</p>
<p>The trend towards <a href="http://www.localpower.org/documents/report_worldsurvey06.pdf">energy decentralisation</a> in many countries is a good example of where it can have a big impact. As early as 2010, international development agencies were highlighting the contribution that a decentralised energy system could make to meeting the <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/448161468336071420/pdf/774320WP0ESMAP00PUBLIC00PROCEEDINGS.pdf">UN Millennium Development Goals</a>. </p>
<p>By delegating power governance to the sub-national level, decentralisation brings control of important resources much closer to citizens. That change gives cities a chance to innovate at the grassroots level, rather than leaving it to wealthy communities with the resources to undertake ambitious energy programmes.</p>
<p>If the Fukushima meeting was an instance of the early stage of community power getting organised, the coming years will be key to proving its scalability and universality. Planned to be held in Mali, the next conference will take place on a continent where socioeconomic development and energy security are just as important as tackling the global challenge of climate change.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Created in 2007, the <a href="https://www.axa-research.org">Axa Research Fund</a> supports more than 500 projets around the world conducted by researchers from 51 countries.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magali Dreyfus is currently a visiting fellow at GRIPS (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies), Tokyo, Japan.</span></em></p>From citizens who sit on the boards of energy companies to neighbourhoods that help fund local wind farms, community action is critical to the environmental movement.Magali Dreyfus, Research Fellow, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/685862016-11-10T05:46:27Z2016-11-10T05:46:27ZAustralia to ratify the Paris climate deal, under a large Trump-shaped shadow<p>Australia’s government has announced that it is to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-10/federal-government-to-ratify-paris-climate-change-agreement/8012696">ratify the Paris climate agreement</a>, which was struck 11 months ago and entered into force last Friday.</p>
<p>The move comes despite the election of Donald Trump, who has <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jun/03/hillary-clinton/yes-donald-trump-did-call-climate-change-chinese-h/">called climate change a Chinese-inspired hoax</a>. Trump has pledged to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/us/politics/donald-trump-global-warming-energy-policy.html?_r=0">turn his back on the Paris treaty</a> after he takes office in January, although this would take at least a year and <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-trump-will-change-the-united-states-and-the-world-but-just-how-remains-to-be-seen-68328">technically leave the Agreement still in force, albeit weakened</a>.</p>
<p>The question for Australia is how Canberra will react to such a seismic shift in US climate policy. The last time a US president pulled the plug on international climate negotiations was in March 2001, when George W. Bush <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2001/mar/29/globalwarming.usnews">withdrew from the Kyoto treaty</a>. Australia’s prime minister John Howard <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/australia-rejects-kyoto-protocol/169527.article">followed suit on Earth Day 2002</a>.</p>
<p>The temptation for Australia’s current government would be to follow in Trump’s slipstream in much the same way. Despite its 2030 climate target being <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">widely seen as unambitious</a>, Australia still <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-climate-targets-still-out-of-reach-after-second-emissions-auction-50519">lacks a credible plan to deliver the necessary emissions cuts</a>, and has no renewable energy target beyond 2020.</p>
<p>While Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may be a vocal supporter of climate action, not everyone on on his side of politics is as keen – such as MPs <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/29/climate-sceptic-mp-appointed-chair-of-environment-and-energy-committee">Craig Kelly</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-09/backbencher-likens-climate-change-to-science-fiction-film-plot/5583734">George Christensen</a>. (It was <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-denial-gained-a-foothold-in-the-liberal-party-and-why-it-still-wont-go-away-56013">not always thus under the Liberals</a>.)</p>
<p>The temptation to defect might be strong, but the countervailing pressure will be much stronger that it was in 2002, and the <a href="http://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/attachments/article/leadership_forum_on_energy_transition_-_member_profiles.pdf">clean energy transition</a> is already underway. Just this week, a high-powered group of business leaders, energy providers, academics and financiers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/07/quentin-bryce-in-high-powered-group-calling-for-coal-power-to-be-phased-out">called on Turnbull</a> to expand the renewable energy target and create a market mechanism to phase out coal.</p>
<p>Yet the US election has also reinvigorated Australian opponents of climate action, such as One Nation senators Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts, who were <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/one-nation-senator-pauline-hanson-makes-toasts-donald-trump-to-victory/news-story/5f21193fe75fcafb3f90e6877a0bae4b">cracking champagne</a> at the prospect of Trump in the White House, and media commentator Andrew Bolt, who <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/andrew-bolt/andrew-bolt-donald-trump-us-election-win-a-revolt-against-lefts-arrogance/news-story/8e658e13e928a1b935587c3634c5a1de">jubilantly described Trump’s victory</a> as a “revolt against the left’s arrogance”.</p>
<h2>Which bit of history will repeat?</h2>
<p>On balance, then, it is still hard to predict Australia’s next move – and past form is little guide for future performance. </p>
<p>Over the past 26 years, Australia has made two largely symbolic commitments to international climate action, and one very concrete refusal. </p>
<p>In 1990, ahead of the 2nd World Climate Conference which fired the starting gun for the United Nations’ climate negotiations, the Hawke government <a href="https://theconversation.com/25-years-ago-the-australian-government-promised-deep-emissions-cuts-and-yet-here-we-still-are-46805">announced a target of a 20% reduction by 2005</a>. </p>
<p>The pledge, however, was laced with crucial caveats, like this one:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…the Government will not proceed with measures which have net adverse economic impacts nationally or on Australia’s trade competitiveness in the absence of similar action by major greenhouse-gas-producing countries.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This target was sidelined in the final <a href="http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, which Australia signed and ratified in 1992.</p>
<p>In 1997, Australia got a very sweet deal at the Kyoto climate talks, successfully negotiating an 8% <em>increase</em> in greenhouse gases as its emissions “reduction” target, as well as a special loophole that allowed it take account of its large reduction in land clearing since 1990. Australia signed the deal in April 1998, but never ratified it.</p>
<p>Kyoto’s rules hid a multitude of sins, anyway, as Oxford University’s Nicholas Howarth and Andrew Foxall have <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629810000648">pointed out</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…its accounting rules obscure the real level of carbon emissions and structural trends at the nation-state level… it has shifted focus away from Australia as the world’s largest coal exporter towards China, its primary customer.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Although Kevin Rudd famously ratified Kyoto and received a standing ovation at the Bali Climate summit in 2007, a stronger Australian emissions reduction target was not forthcoming. </p>
<p>The next big moment came at the Paris negotiations of 2015. Australia’s official pledge was a 26-28% reduction on 2005 levels by 2030 – a target unveiled by the former prime minister Tony Abbott, and which <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">met with a lukewarm response</a> from analysts. </p>
<p>Since then, pressure has been building for Australia to explain how it can meet even that target, given the hostility to renewable energy among the federal government, the lack of a post-2020 renewables target, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-these-numbers-australias-emissions-auction-wont-get-the-job-done-40761">inadequacy</a> of the current Direct Action policy.</p>
<p>And now we are looking at the prospect of a Trump presidency, already described as “<a href="https://thinkprogress.org/trump-victory-climate-a0c595572299#.83mw6bf2k">a turning point in the history of climate action</a>” and “<a href="http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/11/9/13575684/trump-2-degrees">the end of any serious hope of limiting climate change to 2 degrees</a>”.</p>
<p>In a chaotic world that has confounded pollsters, it seems foolish to bet on anything. But two predictions seem sure: atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide will rise, and the future will be … interesting.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Hudson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has announced plans to ratify the Paris climate agreement, a day after US participation in the treaty was thrown into dought by Donald Trump’s election victory.Marc Hudson, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/682122016-11-07T07:41:04Z2016-11-07T07:41:04ZThis Bangladeshi woman can tell you how real climate change is<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144708/original/image-20161106-27939-15ogac1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bhokul has faced the loss of her family's land, and the loss of their income. Now climate change threatens her livelihood even more. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson/UNU-EHS</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>On March 28 2017 United States president Donald Trump signed an executive order <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/climate/trump-executive-order-climate-change.html?_r=0">nullifying many of the country’s commitments to global-warming mitigation</a>. The decision will have far-reaching consequences. As the world’s second-biggest polluter, the US has just made the ambitious goals set by 192 states in the 2015 <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris climate deal</a> all but impossible to reach.</em> </p>
<p><em>This article, originally published as “This Bangladeshi woman can tell you why the latest round of climate talks matter” (November 7 2016), offers a critical view the human reality of climate change as nations around the globe now reconsider their futures in a rapidly warming world.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>A year after the historic <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris climate agreement</a> was reached, country representatives are back at the negotiating table to work out how to implement it. But the <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-climate-talks-move-to-marrakesh-heres-what-they-need-to-achieve-67487">talks in Marrakesh</a> will seem a world away for those who are already seeing the effects of environmental stress and climate change first-hand.</p>
<p>For almost three years now, as part of my research I have listened to the stories of those who know best what it is like to live on the frontlines of climatic stress and disasters in Bangladesh. </p>
<p>Through the <a href="http://ehs.unu.edu/research/gibika.html">Gibika project</a>, my colleagues and I interviewed people in seven study sites across Bangladesh about the impacts on livelihoods due to the environmental stress they are facing. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Dalbanga South, Bangladesh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson/UNU-EHS</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Listening to those on the frontline</h2>
<p>When we embarked on this project, we asked ourselves: how can we make sure that the histories of these people are listened to? It was clear that the answer was not by having us repeating their stories over and over again in academic journals.</p>
<p>Therefore, instead of just publishing our interviews in project reports or journal articles, we worked with our interviews to produce photo film documentaries.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CruDSB5_6xA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>And rather than write an academic article about why the Marrakesh climate talks are important, I thought I would focus on the experiences of one woman who I interviewed for my research, Bhokul, from Dalbanga South in the southern coastal region of Bangladesh.</p>
<h2>The day my soul ran away</h2>
<p>According the Paris agreement, early warning systems may include areas of facilitation, cooperation and action to minimise losses and damages associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events. </p>
<p>For Bhokul, well-functioning early warning systems are crucial not only for her livelihood, but also for her survival. The Bangladesh <a href="http://www.bdrcs.org/programs-and-projects/cyclone-preparedness-program">Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP)</a> was set up after the devastating 1970 Bhola cyclone through the national government and the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS). </p>
<p>Currently, the cyclone early warning system is a combination of flags, megaphones, sirens and BDRCS volunteers but <a href="https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/no-need-for-luck-to-survive-why-we-should-care-about-disaster-risk-reduction">people sometimes receive the warning too late</a> or not at all. Other times, people get the warning messages but decide not to evacuate to the cyclone shelter for different reasons, such as unwillingness to leave their <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-016-0379-z">livelihood assets behind</a>.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=19p8bF2Jll_MVx91SHEAJ5_oJb5A" width="100%" height="480"></iframe>
<p>Bhokul’s life underwent a major change in the 1960s, when her family lost a large part of the family land to riverbank erosion. She describes how before the riverbank eroded, her family never had to worry about how to put food on the table, but as a result of riverbank erosion, the family became poor. </p>
<p>Their livelihood security depended on what was produced in the fields so with the loss of land this security was lost too. She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Our family’s financial problems came with the riverbank erosion. If the riverbank erosion wouldn’t have taken place, our fathers and grandfathers would have continued living their lives with enough food and everything else needed, instead our family is facing scarcity.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The loss of the riverbank forced the family into debt. Their livelihood became unsustainable, as the family was not making enough money from the rice harvest to pay land taxes. </p>
<p>Debtors later took away the family’s last piece of land: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>My father couldn’t pay the taxes on our land. There was rain and storms. We couldn’t maintain the crops on our land, our cattle died. We couldn’t pay the taxes for eight years. After that they took our land away and sold it at an auction. Other people bought our land and we became poor. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>As riverbank erosion kept eating up the family land and her father could no longer support the family through the yearly rice crop, he had to shift to fishing and Bhokul had to go out and start working.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Riverbank erosion has destroyed the livelihoods of many Bangladeshi people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson/UNU-EHS</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The risk of cyclones</h2>
<p>Dalbanga South, where Bhokul and her family have lived for generations, is located in the southern coastal area of Bangladesh. Here, <a href="http://www.adrc.asia/nationinformation.php?NationCode=50&Lang=en&Mode=country">floods and cyclones are common events</a>. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf">frequency and intensity of extreme weather events</a> such as floods and tropical cyclones are projected to increase as the future climate changes.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cyclone Sidr was disastrous for Bangladesh’s coastal villages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sidr_14_nov_2007_0445Z.jpg#/media/File:Sidr_14_nov_2007_0445Z.jpg">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/cyclone-sidr-bangladesh-damage-loss-and-needs-assessment-disaster-recovery-and">Cyclone Sidr</a> hit the village hard in 2007 and left a strong scar on Bhokul’s family. Fishing was the family’s main income source at that time, and they owned a fishing boat that they had struggled to pay for after losing their land.</p>
<p>When the cyclone hit, Bhokul’s brother went out and tried to save the boat that was tied up to a tree on the riverbank. His effort was in vain and fatal in the end. The boat was lost, and a couple of days later the brother fell ill and died. </p>
<p>The fact that he was willing to risk his life for the fishing boat shows how important this asset was to Bhokul’s family. It represented their livelihood security and without it, they had nothing. Bhokul describes what happened in the following way: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The wind was incredibly strong. The trees started breaking and falling on top of the houses. The children started to scream. After that, the water came flowing into the house. When the water came in, my soul ran away from me. It doesn’t matter if there is a heavy storm and it breaks my house. We can take shelter under a tree if we need to but the water? What can we do? Where are we supposed to go?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If global temperature rises are not kept in check, people like Bhokul all over the world will suffer even worse effects from environmental shocks and disasters. This includes loss of livelihood, housing and even loss of life.</p>
<p>As negotiators try to get the best deal for their countries in Marrakesh, human stories like these cannot be forgotten.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68212/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson receives funding from Munich Re Foundation through the Gibika project, a research to action collaboration between Munich Re Foundation, United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security and International Centre for Climate Change and Development. </span></em></p>Meet Bhokal, who has already lost so much due to environmental disasters, and who needs the Paris agreement to be a success.Dr Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Gibika Project Manager, researches livelihood resilience and environmental stress in Bangladesh, United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/679922016-11-03T22:19:58Z2016-11-03T22:19:58ZThe rubber will hit the road for developing countries at COP22 in Marrakech<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144249/original/image-20161102-27218-ypucpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hard decisions must be made, and commitments must be backed up by concrete action at this year's climate conference in Morocco.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The main objective of the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/index_en.htm">Paris Climate Agreement</a> is to limit the global temperature increase to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5. The recognition of the 1.5 degree target is of central importance. This is because African countries are highly vulnerable to climate change.</p>
<p>Temperatures across Africa, however, are rising. This year marks the moment when carbon dioxide officially passed the symbolic 400 parts per million (ppm) mark. And, according to scientists, it will not return to below this in <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/world-passes-400-ppm-threshold-permanently-20738">our lifetimes</a>. The safe level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is <a href="http://400.350.org">350ppm</a>. Passing the symbolic 400ppm mark permanently is a clear sign that mean annual temperature rise in Africa is likely to exceed 2°C by the end of this century.</p>
<p>The deal <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">struck</a> last December under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris marked a seminal moment in the development of the international climate change regime. The deal is also an important tool in mobilising finance, technological support and capacity building for developing countries to help them cope with and tackle climate change.</p>
<p>But the details still need to be worked out. As Patricia Espinosa, the Executive Secretary of the convention <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/meeting/9567.php">said:</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>while the Paris Agreement gave clear pathways and a final destination in respect to decisive action on climate change, many of the details regarding how to move forward as one global community in that common direction still need to be resolved.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The 22nd Conference of the Parties (COP22) taking place in Morocco holds considerable potential to accelerate and amplify the decisions made a year ago in Paris. </p>
<h2>African concerns</h2>
<p>In Cairo earlier this year African ministers of environment and representatives of more than 45 African countries <a href="http://www.greenafricadirectory.org/african-ministers-pledge-accelerated-action-on-sustainable-development-climate-change-and-illegal-trade-in-wildlife/">welcomed</a> the adoption of the Paris Agreement. They emphasised that the agreement accommodated many African concerns and interests. The meeting also stressed the need for African countries to continue engaging actively in climate change negotiations to provide further guidance on the implementation of the Agreement.</p>
<p>One of the most contentious issues on the table will be the progress towards mobilising the $100bn a year <a href="http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/one-hundred-billion-dollars/">promised</a> by developed countries to developing economies by 2020.</p>
<p>South Africa has played a leading role in helping to secure climate financing for developing countries. Ensuring meaningful progress on reaching this $100bn target will be a key element of South Africa’s proposed position in Marrakech. </p>
<p>But there is considerable concern about the promised $100bn and where it will come from. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/cop22-eu-climate-financing-still-only-theoretical/">Oxfam France recently complained</a> that a recent meeting of European Finance Ministers gave no concrete indication about how they are going to increase the total amount of aid to meet the $100 billion objective. This omission is significant as the EU represents one of the main providers of development funding.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://pibphoto.nic.in/documents/rlink/2015/nov/p2015112901.pdf">paper</a> published by the Indian Ministry of Economic Affairs questioned the findings of an earlier <a href="http://www.oecd.org/env/cc/oecd-cpi-climate-finance-report.htm">Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report</a> that said developed countries had mobilised $57bn of climate aid in 2013-14. Indian officials suggested that the true amount figure mobilised by rich countries may only be $2.2bn. </p>
<p>The discrepancy is <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/cop22-eu-climate-financing-still-only-theoretical/">important</a> because the OECD’s report is accepted by developed countries as the basis of negotiations and evidence that there has been significant progress made towards the $100bn commitment.</p>
<p>In Marrakech <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/events/department_activities/2016stakeholderconsultation_aheadof_cop22morocco">South Africa’s will press for</a> a clear pathway to realising the $100bn of climate finance per year by 2020. </p>
<h2>Mitigation and adaptation</h2>
<p>Another key element of <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/events/department_activities/2016stakeholderconsultation_aheadof_cop22morocco">South Africa’s proposed position</a> for the conference is adaptation. The adaptation component of Nationally Determined Commitments is central to the call by a number of developing countries, particularly in Africa, for a balanced treatment of mitigation and adaptation. South Africa believes the agreement should address vulnerability, priorities, plans and actions, implementation and support needs, as well as adaptation efforts for recognition in the case of developing countries.</p>
<p>On mitigation, South Africa wants to see progress on the features and information contained in the Nationally Determined Contributions at COP22. This includes the consideration of common time frames for contributions to allow for effective global stocktaking and ratcheting up of country commitments in future. This is essential if the target of 2°C is to be met.</p>
<p>South Africa has ratified the agreement along with <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php">17</a> other African countries. These are Algeria, Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Cote D'Ivoire, Ghana, Madagascar, Mali, Morocco, Namibia, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Swaziland and Uganda. Signing the agreement requires countries to adopt it within their own legal systems through ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. </p>
<p>They are among <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php">92 countries</a> to have ratified the terms of the agreement. This breaks all UN records when it comes to how fast an agreement enters into force.</p>
<p>But signatures alone won’t do the trick. Hard decisions must be made, and commitments must be backed up by concrete action. Developing countries like South Africa will be pushing for this to happen in Marrakech.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camilla Adelle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Paris climate conference made key plans to avert global warming. The conference in Morocco will hope to put these plans in action.Camilla Adelle, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/681402016-11-03T19:07:46Z2016-11-03T19:07:46ZThe Paris climate deal has come into force – what next for Australia?<p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris climate agreement</a> comes into legal force today, just 11 months after it was concluded and 30 days after it <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-agreement-comes-into-force-now-time-for-australia-to-step-up-66559">met its ratification threshold</a> of 55 parties accounting for at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>By contrast, the <a href="http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php">Kyoto Protocol</a>, which this treaty now replaces, took more than 8 years to come into force, slowed by the United States’ persistent and erosive opposition.</p>
<p>At the time of writing, the Agreement has been <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">ratified</a> by 94 parties, including the world’s four largest emitters: China, the United States, the European Union and India. As <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/hot-topics/ratification-%20tracker.html">Climate Analytics reports</a>, these nations account for 66% of greenhouse emissions. Even if the United States were to withdraw its support under a Trump presidency, the Paris Agreement will remain in force.</p>
<p>The unprecedented speed with which this has been achieved reflects the acute realisation in the international community – following the debacle of the Copenhagen negotiations in 2009 – that a failure to land this treaty quickly would probably have led to the collapse of the United Nations climate regime.</p>
<p>It also reflects the flexibility of the Agreement itself. Its curious mixture of binding and voluntary elements was designed to be attractive and accommodating, to include both developed and developing states and, specifically, to enable President Barack Obama to sidestep an obstructive US Congress in providing his support.</p>
<p>The result is a legal hybrid that obliges parties to abide by processes, mechanisms and timetables for setting and reviewing their national climate targets, and providing climate finance to developing countries.</p>
<p>But the treaty doesn’t compel those national efforts collectively to meet its <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">core aims</a>: to keep global warming well below 2°C and as close as possible to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels; to peak global emissions as soon as possible; and to reach zero net global emissions in the second half of this century. Worse still, the currently pledged targets would <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-countries-need-to-at-least-double-their-efforts-on-climate-study-49731">deliver some 3°C of overall warming</a> by the end of this century.</p>
<p>Because the treaty relies on “intended” national climate targets rather than binding ones, much hinges on the success of the requirement for nations to review and toughen them every five years. The theory is that these global stocktakes of collective progress (beginning with a facilitative dialogue among parties in 2018) will generate enough pressure for individual nations to be encouraged to ratchet up their efforts as they go.</p>
<p>For these reasons – because of its emphasis on process and its lack of compliance mechanisms – the Agreement has been described as a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2016.1191818?journalCode=fenp20">promissory note</a>, or prematurely <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-emissions-cuts-arent-enough-well-have-to-put-carbon-back-in-the-ground-52175">criticised as inadequate</a>.</p>
<h2>A work in progress</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-paris-what-was-really-achieved-at-the-cop21-climate-summit-and-what-next-52320">Euphoria greeted the successful conclusion</a> of the Paris summit last year, and 175 countries rushed to sign the Agreement when it <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-agreement-signing-ceremony-at-a-glance-58221">opened for signatures in April this year</a> (in all, 192 states have now done so). Nevertheless, given the Kyoto experience, few anticipated that this enthusiasm would carry the treaty across the ratification threshold so soon.</p>
<p>So while there will be more celebrations at <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/meeting/9567.php">this year’s UN climate summit</a>, which begins in Marrakech on Monday, negotiators and UN bureaucrats have been caught out. In some senses, the Paris Agreement is a framework agreement within a Framework Agreement (the <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, of which this is a subsidiary part). It’s a work in progress with lots of details yet to be filled in.</p>
<p>The newly formed <a href="http://unfccc.int/bodies/apa/body/9399.php">Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement</a> will be scrambling to define key elements governing the new treaty’s implementation. Many of these elements are critical to the treaty’s long-term effectiveness. They include measures to ensure transparent and effective accounting of countries’ emissions reductions; to work out exactly how the ambition of “zero net emissions” will be met; and to transfer crucial economic measures used under the Kyoto Protocol over to the new framework.</p>
<p>The Agreement requests that this be done by the first session of the Conference of the Parties to the new treaty. As this now will occur in Marrakech, time is too short and such labour is likely to continue through 2017 and perhaps beyond.</p>
<h2>From Paris to Australia</h2>
<p>Australia is expected to ratify the Agreement <a href="http://foreignminister.gov.au/releases/Pages/2016/jb_mr_160831c.aspx">later this year</a>. When it does so, it will be committing itself to regularly increasing its efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, improve climate adaptation, and provide climate finance.</p>
<p>Like other nations, Australia will have to review and toughen its climate targets every five years, starting no later than 2020, and report back regularly on its efforts.</p>
<p>While Australia’s 2020 and 2030 emissions targets are <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">seen as weak</a> by international standards, doubts have still been expressed about the federal government’s ability to reach them. </p>
<p><a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia.html">Modelling</a> suggests Australia’s emissions are projected to rise to 21% above 2005 levels by 2030 – rather than fall by the 26-28% proclaimed in its <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Australia/1/Australias%20Intended%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution%20to%20a%20new%20Climate%20Change%20Agreement%20-%20August%202015.pdf">official target</a>.</p>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">Emissions Reduction Fund</a> has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-these-numbers-australias-emissions-auction-wont-get-the-job-done-40761">criticised</a> as being underfunded and focused on the wrong projects. <a href="https://www.greeninstitute.org.au/sites/default/files/Mulga_Bill_Web_BM%2B_0.pdf">Recent analysis</a> of the contracts awarded through the scheme’s “reverse auctions” confirms that little real additional abatement has been achieved.</p>
<p>Moreover, likely future changes in land use and forestry (mainly reductions in land clearing) will be insufficient to achieve these goals in isolation or to contribute significantly to future ones. The current policy mix means that tougher – and perhaps even existing - national targets could only be met by buying international carbon credits.</p>
<p>In addition, Australia’s reports to the UN will have to reflect “environmental integrity, transparency, accuracy, completeness, comparability and consistency in accordance to rules to be adopted by parties to the Agreement”. The transparency and accountability of Australia’s emissions reporting was recently <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/trr/aus.pdf">questioned by the United Nations</a> and by other parties to the Climate Convention. This too will have to improve.</p>
<p>Like other parties, by 2020 Australia will also be invited to provide the UN Climate Secretariat with a long-term low-carbon strategy to run until 2050. Designing an effective transition strategy will require extensive consultation with state and territory governments, industries, and other stakeholders. Such attention to detail, although essential for building wide and deep support for a future low-carbon economy, has so far been well beyond the ability of politicians stuck in Canberra’s toxic climate policy culture.</p>
<p>In all, the Paris Agreement, although voluntary, can be thought of as a global climate safety net held by all nations. This inclusiveness means that Australia will no longer be able to point to the absence of other states as an excuse for its recalcitrance. It will increasingly be held to account by other nations, and the need for meaningful action will become ever more irresistible, as the net gradually tightens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Christoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just 11 months after the Paris climate talks, the resulting treaty has come into force. The rapid ratification looks set to heap even more pressure on Australia to come up with a credible climate policy.Peter Christoff, Associate Professor, School of Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/556122016-04-22T10:04:54Z2016-04-22T10:04:54ZHow should we compensate poor countries for ‘loss and damage’ from climate change?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118807/original/image-20160414-2622-7kqett.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If sea level rise takes away someone's land, should that country be compensated and how? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfataustralianaid/10693020313/in/photolist-hhUwpc-6FiMwN-btuWT2-9Kdbhu-71gfz7-6sojJJ-btuWTg-7X9nJr-aqdwfc-8prqJ6-7fkjqC-agsHeh-agsHdd-eQJna3-9zSu6t-a3kSof-6RfHyv-amji2j-eaK2Gu-apr9kV-aqdfCg-63Ty9S-7jNJdo-6GEiyi-aHvHdi-7jNA8Q-7ku6x3-71fWCQ-7qAmTi-71fWDS-71fWEm-6FxNKw-7jNvDJ-7jNBb7-7kqbZr-hhSyns-bjfcy2-dzgAiG-7jJCXg-btuWST-7jJEqc-azNTwF-9zVsZN-btuWSP-71gfzJ-7jJBng-dzgAbb-8t8b1h-dzgAud-oGmzS9">dfataustralianaid/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Representatives from dozens of countries will convene at the United Nations April 22 to sign the Paris Agreement on climate change, which commits signatories to lower greenhouse emissions in the years ahead.</p>
<p>Written within the document is an article on “loss and damages,” the notion of providing aid to vulnerable countries that suffer damages from climate change. This could include loss of species, destruction of infrastructure, loss of land from rising seas or the displacement of people from climate-linked events, such as drought or violent weather events. </p>
<p>Although the term “loss and damages” has been bandied about within U.N. climate negotiations since 1992, there has been virtually no public discussion on how to address these issues, which is crucial to confronting climate change in an effective and just manner. </p>
<p>How does “loss and damages” relate to other forms of climate aid and what’s the most effective way to address it through the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)? And can rich and poor countries come to some sort of agreement on climate-related compensations beyond what has already been committed?</p>
<h2>Irreparable changes</h2>
<p>The UNFCCC was established in 1992 to ensure that global greenhouse gas emissions were limited to a level “that would prevent dangerous man-made interference with the climate system.” </p>
<p>The early focus was on establishing programs and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and emissions from land use and forestry, commonly referred to as “mitigation.” </p>
<p>However, by the middle of the decade of 2000-2010, it also became increasingly obvious that the halfhearted efforts by the world community to reduce emissions also required more of a focus on how to to adapt to inevitable, and serious, changes in the climate.</p>
<p>During the last decade there was also increasing recognition that mitigation and adaptation programs are likely to prove woefully insufficient to avert serious adverse impacts in many of the world’s most climatically vulnerable countries. Indeed, the emissions reduction pledges made by the world community to date currently put us on track for <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/indc-synthesis-report-press-release/">temperature increases</a> of between 2.7–3.7 degrees Celsius by 2100. </p>
<p>This is far above the dangerous climatic thresholds of 1.5–2.0 C identified by scientists and policymakers. Moreover, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, temperature increases of at least 2 C are <a href="http://www.newswise.com/articles/efforts-to-curtail-world-temps-will-almost-surely-fail">virtually inevitable at this point</a>, perhaps as early as 2035 or 2040. Many countries are also already experiencing serious manifestations of climate change with temperature increases of approximately 1 C above preindustrial levels.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118809/original/image-20160414-2637-c7dzet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118809/original/image-20160414-2637-c7dzet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118809/original/image-20160414-2637-c7dzet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118809/original/image-20160414-2637-c7dzet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118809/original/image-20160414-2637-c7dzet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118809/original/image-20160414-2637-c7dzet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118809/original/image-20160414-2637-c7dzet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118809/original/image-20160414-2637-c7dzet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Desertification is one of the effects sought for compensation under ‘loss and damages’ provisions in U.N. climate treaties. Senegal in western Africa has seen severe declines in productivity and has been linked to the effects from climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ifpri/16671544056/in/photolist-rpd2dL-nZxSAm-dzt3J2-oDD4G-nH9SSj-nHq9ay-qoNTu-dKoX1t-bpakXK-jTKn88-9cszGL-nZxYsS-h3JE9r-dKoftp-dKuqf1-dKtG6S-un3q8w-dKuq8L-nHagyS-dKtHTw-dKtK5A-bpajBr-bpamXx-dA6RGf-bpaiX4-dA1oNk-aawWE7-xSa9h-bpai9V-nZxTSQ-dA1ogV-aau8D6-bBQFh7-u5ekk1-bpakf2-dKuzzq-aau8rR-aau8Fi-cTmibh-dA6RQw-dA6Rxd-5wNr39-aawWV3-aau8Ra-dA6Siy-aawWw1-aawWJd-aawX3C-chPQzd-dA6S6s">IFPRI/Milo Mitchell</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The problem is that there are limits to how effectively countries, particularly poorer ones, can minimize the impacts from climate change, such as extreme weather events or rising sea levels. There are cost constraints, and some strategies designed to help families or populations cope in the short term can ultimately increase vulnerability. For example, after a drought, farmers will sell cattle to rebuild from damages, but this means that they then lose a source of income and have far less resilience to recover from future climate-related disasters. </p>
<p>This sobering reality has led to growing support in the past decade for a focus on the concept of “loss and damage.” While the term is not defined under the U.N. Framework Convention, a generally recognized definition is impacts of climate change that will neither be mitigated, nor adapted to. </p>
<p>“Loss” refers to irrecoverable negative impacts of climate change, such as loss of freshwater or culture or heritage, while “damage” describes climatic impacts that ecosystems and human institutions can recover from, such as damage to mangroves from storm surges or damage to coastal infrastructure from violent weather events. </p>
<p>Loss and damage includes impacts from extreme events (such as heat waves, drought and flooding), as well as slow-onset events with the potentially greatest long-term impacts, including salinization, rising sea levels, desertification, and retreat of glaciers.</p>
<p>One recent <a href="http://www.actionaidusa.org/sites/files/actionaid/loss_and_damage_-_discussion_paper_by_actionaid-_nov_2010.pdf">study</a> projected the potential cost of loss and damage at an astounding US$275 trillion between 2000 and 2200. Moreover, this doesn’t include noneconomic losses, such as cultural disintegration through relocation or loss of indigenous knowledge.</p>
<h2>The history of loss and damage</h2>
<p>In 1992 The Alliance of Small Island States, a coalition of small island and low-lying coastal states, proposed an insurance pool to protect vulnerable countries from climate-related sea level rise during the negotiation of the UNFCCC. However, the proposal was ultimately rejected. </p>
<p>In 2007, the parties to the UNFCCC agreed to consider means to address loss and damage. This culminated in the establishment of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/adaptation/workstreams/loss_and_damage/items/8134.php">Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage</a> in 2014 and a committee tasked with enhancing knowledge and strengthening dialogue on the topic.</p>
<p>As negotiations ensued for the Paris Agreement, many developing countries <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2016/01/loss-damage-fared-paris-agreement/">sought to include a loss and damage provision</a> in the agreement, believing that this would increase the issue’s profile. However, this turned out to be one of the most <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/12/9/9871800/paris-cop21-climate-loss-damage">hotly contested issues</a> in the negotiations for the new agreement. </p>
<p>Many developed countries sought to exclude loss and damage from the agreement. Some contended that it was best addressed under the rubric of adaptation and wealthy countries have already pledged $100 billion to a <a href="http://unfccc.int/bodies/green_climate_fund_board/body/6974.php">Green Climate Fund</a> for adaption and mitigation of climate change. Many others expressed concerns that it would ultimately lead to claims for compensation or liability for climate change damages. </p>
<p>U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry <a href="http://grist.org/climate-energy/heres-why-the-words-loss-and-damage-are-causing-such-a-fuss-at-the-paris-climate-talks/">contended</a> that if loss and damage was framed in a way that created a legal remedy, it could have killed the Paris Agreement because of congressional opposition to this concept. </p>
<p>Ultimately, developing countries agreed to exclude references to liability and compensation from the proposed text for a loss and damage provision, paving the way for its inclusion in the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>The new loss and damage provision of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris Agreement</a> (Article 8) incorporates the existing Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, thus making it a legally binding portion of the agreement.</p>
<p>It also sets forth a number of potential methods for the Parties to cooperate to address loss and damage, including establishment of early warning systems, risk assessment procedures, methods to address noneconomic losses and a task force to address displacement of populations as a consequence of climate change. The provision also provides for strengthening and enhancing the mechanism in the future.</p>
<h2>Climate refugees</h2>
<p>To date, the focus of the Warsaw Mechanism’s Executive Committee has been on enhancing knowledge about loss and damage. This is assuredly a critical priority given substantial information gaps, including the need for detailed localized risk assessments, assessment of risk management options and developing better methodologies for assessing noneconomic climatic impacts. </p>
<p>However, as several negotiators for developing countries on the loss and damage issue observed recently, the key now is turning words “into concrete action.” At the end of this year, negotiators will review the Warsaw International Mechanism. Here are some of the things the parties should consider doing:</p>
<p><strong>Develop a framework for addressing people displaced by climate change.</strong></p>
<p>It has been projected that the total number of so-called “climate refugees” could swell to <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/surge-200-million-climate-change-refugees-will-reverse-global-healthcare-progress-1507548">200 million</a> or more by 2050, or more than twenty times those currently protected by the U.N.’s High Commissioner for Refugees. Beyond the human tragedy of this plight, displacement of this magnitude could also lead to international conflict of an unprecedented scale, as well as economic instability.</p>
<p>At Paris the G77 states – a caucus made up of developing countries – advocated for the establishment of a “climate change displacement coordination facility” in the Paris Agreement. The proposed facility would have been equipped to provide emergency relief for those displaced by climatic events, as well as the capability to organize migration and planned relocation, and to assist the displaced. </p>
<p>However, as discussed above, the parties to the Paris Agreement opted only for a task force to make recommendations on how to address climate-related population displacement. Given the pressing, and steadily growing, threat of climate displacement, the parties should immediately consider the following measures:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Facilitate national acceptance of displaced persons. While some populations displaced by climate change may ultimately be able to return to their homes, most ultimately will not. The Warsaw International Mechanism Task Force should recommend standards for countries to accept displaced populations, perhaps based on an equitable formula based on such facts as historical levels of greenhouse gas emissions or GDP.</p></li>
<li><p>The Warsaw International Mechanism Task Force should seek to develop recommendations to provide technical assistance to developing countries, and perhaps nongovernmental organizations, to help prevent displacement and to develop resettlement programs.</p></li>
<li><p>Develop a proposal for international recognition of climate refugees. There are currently no international treaties, protocols or guidelines that provide protection for climate refugees. Formal recognition of interests of climate refugees would provide them with protections under international law, including a right to self-determination, as well as assistance to mobilize resources to protect refugee interests. </p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Provide the funding to develop “micro-insurance” instruments for loss and damage.</strong></p>
<p>In exchange for small regular premium payments, micro-insurance policies have the potential to protect low-income people against specific threats, include climate-related perils such as crop losses and flood damage to infrastructure. As insured households and farms are more creditworthy, insurance can also promote investments in productive assets and higher-yield crops.</p>
<p>The focus now should be on developing more pilot programs to test the effectiveness of such programs, and to conduct cost-benefit analyses.</p>
<p><strong>Develop a framework for officially taking stock on loss and damage.</strong></p>
<p>A provision to take stock on loss and damage every five years, already built into the Paris Agreement for other issues, should be established to ensure that we continue to take it seriously, and that our responses evolve with new knowledge.</p>
<p><strong>Consider revisiting the issue of liability and compensation in the future.</strong></p>
<p>While the parties to the Paris Agreement explicitly ruled out liability or compensation for climate change-related damages, this would not rule out amending the agreement at some point in the future. </p>
<p>Indeed, the Framework Convention on Climate Change provides for the responsibility of countries “to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction.” </p>
<p>Some of the world’s most vulnerable countries are the least responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions that threaten their future. At some point, principles of justice and equity might necessitate the need for a system to compensate them for their losses.</p>
<p>For that reason, U.N. negotiators should focus on ways to move beyond words to action that can address perhaps the most pressing aspect of climate change. The loss and damage impacts of climate change could ultimately dwarf all others.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55612/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wil Burns does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the fanfare of signing the Paris Agreement on climate, little progress has been made on compensating poor countries for irreparable damages from climate change.Wil Burns, Co-Director, Forum for Climate Engineering Assessment, School of International Service, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/582212016-04-21T20:11:42Z2016-04-21T20:11:42ZThe Paris Agreement signing ceremony at a glance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/119604/original/image-20160421-8023-kw7swa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More than 160 nations will sign the Paris Agreement on its opening day – a record for a United Nations treaty.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AUN_Members_Flags.JPG">Aotearoa/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Leaders and diplomats from more than 160 countries are gathering at the United Nations’ New York headquarters on April 22 to sign the Paris Agreement – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">landmark climate deal</a> hammered out at the culmination of <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/paris-2015">last year’s talks</a>.</p>
<p>The ceremony marks the start of a year-long opportunity for countries to sign the agreement, although most of the world will sign on the opening day. But the process doesn’t end there – nations will still need to ratify the treaty domestically. Only when at least 55 countries, accounting for at least 55% of global greenhouse emissions, have done so will the Paris deal become international law.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/119652/original/image-20160421-27001-xw6ii6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/119652/original/image-20160421-27001-xw6ii6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=3697&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/119652/original/image-20160421-27001-xw6ii6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=3697&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/119652/original/image-20160421-27001-xw6ii6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=3697&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/119652/original/image-20160421-27001-xw6ii6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=4646&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/119652/original/image-20160421-27001-xw6ii6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=4646&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/119652/original/image-20160421-27001-xw6ii6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=4646&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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More than 160 countries are expected to sign the Paris Agreement in New York on April 22. But enough countries will also need to ratify the treaty domestically before it can become international law.James Whitmore, Deputy Editor: Arts + Culture, The ConversationMichael Hopkin, Deputy Chief of Staff, The ConversationEmil Jeyaratnam, Data + Interactives Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/569342016-03-31T04:24:52Z2016-03-31T04:24:52ZParis set a benchmark in the battle against climate change. What now?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/116634/original/image-20160329-13698-s39sw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa has a long way to go to make a fair contribution to the global goals set out under the Paris Agreement.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is a foundation essay. They are longer than usual and take a wider look at a key issue affecting society.</em> </p>
<p>It’s been a few months since the <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris Agreement</a> wrapped up. On April 22, it will be signed by numerous heads of state. The agreement sets crucial goals to limit global temperature increases, and specific goals in three areas – mitigation, adaptation and finance. </p>
<p>Many expected the conference to be a talk shop with not many effective results. Obviously it’s too early for any tangible results to be seen – but the agreement has many positive points.</p>
<p>The long-term goal of limiting temperature increases to 2°C – or a second, more ambitious target of 1.5°C – guides the agreement. Mitigation includes a long-term goal – early peaking, balancing emissions and sinks. The accompanying decision indicates that emissions need to be reduced from 55 gigatonnes (Gt) to 40Gt in 2030, a massive gap of 15Gt. </p>
<p>A new global adaptation goal aims to increase countries’ adaptive capacity and resilience. There are also aims to achieve a finance increase to US$100 billion per year post 2020. </p>
<p>These goals are clearly put in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication.</p>
<h2>Why what happened in Paris is different</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement fulfilled the promise, from the 2011 Durban Climate Change Conference, of a regime applicable to all under the <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>. The world has finally moved beyond a divide into two groups, the developed and developing countries. Bitter battles were often fought along these lines. Paris reflects differentiation, acknowledging that the world is not the same. But it acknowledges the need to move beyond old divisions and to take action. It expresses differences more subtly, notably on mitigation and finance.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement encodes a bottom-up approach. If the <a href="http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/items/1678.php">Kyoto Protocol’s</a> targets were top-down, a defining feature of the Paris Agreement is that <a href="http://www.mapsprogramme.org/wp-content/uploads/Paper_Thoughts-choice-of-INDC.pdf">nationally determined contributions</a> will add up to the global response. Proposals to take global emissions budgets and divide them across countries were rejected. Adaptation, loss and damage are much more prominent in the Paris Agreement than in previous climate agreements.</p>
<p>Countries’ adaptation plans are mandatory, with a clear emphasis on implementation. Countries should regularly communicate to the international community what they are doing on adaptation, in different forms. Prior to Paris, 88% of the <a href="http://www.wri.org/indc-definition">Intended Nationally Determined Contributions</a> included adaptation. The US and EU – with 28 member states – submitted adaptation undertakings. Together, plans and communications will significantly strengthen the information base on adaptation.</p>
<p>Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) on mitigation are obligations of conduct that require domestic measures to achieve objectives. They will be strongly reviewed. Reporting and review is strengthened at individual country level, and the global stock-take will inform further mitigation targets. Longer-term strategies from all parties are encouraged.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement says all countries should strive to formulate long-term low greenhouse gas emission strategies. South Africa has a peak, plateau and decline trajectory range in its national policy, and put forward mitigation strategies for 2025 and 2030 in Paris. In the next round, it will be expected to include longer-term goals, even if aspirational, for 2050.</p>
<p>A global stock-take will consider mitigation, adaptation and support every five years, based on equity and science, to inform what more needs to be done.</p>
<p>Increasing ambition is crucial because the sum of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions is insufficient to keep us on track for the 2°C limit. The outcome of the stock-take will inform countries’ next actions, support and international co-operation. This global review will consider the collective effort, in the light of equity and science – that is, are we all doing enough, and are our efforts shared fairly?</p>
<p>Transparency is perhaps the strongest feature of the Paris Agreement. The framework applies transparency to both action and support, with the latter needing work. Common modalities will allow flexibility for those developing countries that have less capability to improve reporting and review over time.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement is a treaty in all but name; it is a legally binding agreement. The nature of obligations within the treaty differ – some are binding and others not. </p>
<p>It is mandatory for each country to communicate mitigation NDCs every five years and to pursue domestic measures to achieve the NDC objectives. Individual financial contributions by developed countries are not binding. Delivering on promises of finance and scaling up overall investment flows will be closely watched – particularly by those who need support. A mandatory review of obligations is expected to strengthen action over time, setting out obligations of conduct and achieving objectives in the case of mitigation. Everyone is expected to do better in each round – what is called “progression”.</p>
<p>It is important to bring more actors into more creative spaces, ensuring a catalytic function for the Convention and perhaps changing it internally. Paris makes further processes complementary to text-based negotiations. It links multiple actors in more creative spaces. This means the agreement might enable action at national level, with many other actors, and allow for international cooperation on cleaner energy.</p>
<h2>What might the agreement mean for South Africa?</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement is characterised by much broader participation than the Kyoto Protocol was. Much more will be required for South Africa, together with all other countries, to regularly communicate contributions. These contributions will be nationally determined. But they will be subject to strong international review at the individual and collective level. This applies across mitigation, adaptation and support, in slightly different ways.</p>
<p>On mitigation, the Paris Agreement has individual mitigation obligations. The nationally determined mitigation contributions are obligations of conduct. South Africa must prepare and communicate successive mitigation contributions and is obliged to pursue domestic measures to achieve these objectives.</p>
<p>The objective of the mitigation part of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted prior to Paris was built around the peak, plateau and decline emissions trajectory range. The country will have to show what measures – carbon tax, carbon budgets, low-emissions electricity plan, renewable programme, transport policies and others – it will pursue to achieve peak, plateau and decline.</p>
<p>This information will be reported and reviewed every two and five years. South Africa submitted its first biennial update report in 2014, and it will submit another in 2016. From 2020, the scope will be broader, including adaptation as an option and mandatory reporting on support received.</p>
<p>On mitigation, national inventory reports are required every two years, as is tracking of progress in implementing and achieving mitigation contributions. Every five years, information on adaptation, mitigation and support will be reviewed collectively in a global stock-take. South Africa must take into account what all countries are doing together, and set more ambitious national contributions.</p>
<p>One means of increasing ambition will be to look beyond what national governments can do on their own. Cities are at the front-lines of adaptation and mitigation, businesses have much to contribute and civil society makes a crucial contribution.</p>
<p>Paris sent clear policy signals for more renewable energy and less use of fossil fuels. Much of the focus on renewables was in India, China and Brazil. But a preamble paragraph acknowledges the importance of universal access to sustainable energy, in Africa in particular, through the enhanced deployment of renewable energy.</p>
<p>With South Africa’s connections to the three countries mentioned above, the renewable plans and support for an <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/clean-energy/advancing-of-africa-renewable-energy-initiative/">African Renewable Energy Initiative </a> from African heads of state and partner countries, its prospects of playing a key role in the expansion of renewables on the continent seem bright.</p>
<p>We will only fully appreciate what the Paris Agreement means for the country in the coming months and years. But already we know enough to acknowledge that Paris, while far from perfect, marked an important and positive change towards climate action. Paris moved decisively into a world where all countries, developed or developing, take climate action.</p>
<p>But a tough road lies ahead. South Africa will have to redouble its efforts to implement its national climate policy, and to make a fair contribution to the global goals set out under the Paris Agreement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56934/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harald Winkler works for the Energy Research Centre(<a href="http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/">http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/</a>) or ERC, at the University of Cape Town (UCT). He has been a member of the SA delegation to the climate negotiations under the UNFCCC from 2003 to 2015. ERC has in the past received funding from the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) for analytical support. This article is written in his personal capacity, does not represent the views of ERC, UCT or DEA and no benefit will accrue to any organisation.</span></em></p>The Paris Agreement marks an important step towards climate change mitigation – one in which developed and developing countries alike take action.Harald Winkler, Professor and Director of the Energy Research Centre, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/544422016-02-11T10:01:21Z2016-02-11T10:01:21ZWhy we won’t be able to feed the world without GM<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110854/original/image-20160209-12606-13ekzgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We're talking about a lot of seeds</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=feed%20the%20world&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=44069140">Great Divide Photography</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One thing I remember vividly from my childhood is The Day of the Triffids. In John Wyndham’s apocalyptic novel, the triffids were carnivorous plants that didn’t need roots and had developed three legs to allow them to find prey (whose nitrogen they fed on instead). They were originally bred by humans to provide high-quality vegetable oil, since the growing population’s demand for food was outstripping supply. Initially contained on farms, the triffids escaped following an “extreme celestial event” and began to terrorise the human population. </p>
<p>Replace “breeding” with “genetic modification” and you have the contemporary cautionary tale about the threat of “Frankenfoods” to human health and the environment. But this raises another question – if we ignore their potential, what does it mean for human food requirements in the future?</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110860/original/image-20160209-12610-wmrcxz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leaf grief.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Day of the Triffids was first published in 1951, right at the start of the “<a href="http://geography.about.com/od/globalproblemsandissues/a/greenrevolution.htm">green revolution</a>”. The latest thing was breeding new varieties of cereal which were high-yielding. Together with other newly developed technologies including machinery – tractors and irrigation pumps – and synthetic inputs like pesticides and fertilisers, this <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11584298">helped double</a> major commodity crop production between 1960 and 2000 to 2 billion tonnes worldwide, rebutting <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/11374623">Malthusian</a> fears about the world failing to feed its growing population. </p>
<p>In the last decade, the rosy glow has worn off a little. Growth in world crop yields <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms2296">has declined</a> and is even stagnating, <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6042/616">perhaps due to</a> climate change – especially stress from heat and drought. Yields <a href="http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ncomms3918">are no longer</a> increasing fast enough to keep pace with projected demand. If current trends continue, <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0066428">we’ll need to</a> expand our crop land by 42% by 2050. As a consequence, forests will be lost. Along with associated costs from requiring more water, plus the effects on biodiversity, this <a href="http://www.fcrn.org.uk/research-library/importance-food-demand-management-climate-mitigation">will increase</a> agriculture’s greenhouse-gas emissions significantly. In total, agri-food <a href="http://www.fcrn.org.uk/research-library/importance-food-demand-management-climate-mitigation">is set to</a> emit enough greenhouse gases to surpass the entirety of the 1.5°C temperature-rise target <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/finale-cop21/">called for in Paris</a> for 2050. </p>
<h2>Supply …</h2>
<p>There are basically two options: we can increase yields to meet demand without expanding area, and/or we can reduce demand enough to allow supply to catch up. Increasing supply in a sustainable way is perfectly possible. Some of this is about increasing efficiency through better farming, such as using <a href="https://soilsmatter.wordpress.com/2015/02/27/what-is-precision-agriculture-and-why-is-it-important/">precision agriculture</a> to target the right amounts of fertilisers and pesticides to the right places. </p>
<p>Some of it is about changing land management to get the most out of agricultural land while maintaining ecosystem services, for example by managing the edges of fields as buffer strips to prevent chemicals being washed away by heavy rains; and as <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2008.00004.x/full">places with lots of wild flowers</a> where bees can thrive to improve crop pollination. And some of it is about developing new animal and plant varieties that are more efficient, more productive or better able to cope with the changing environment.</p>
<p>New varieties can come about from various means. Conventional breeding continues to be important. But modern laboratories have given us more strings to our bow. Not all biotechnological approaches are genetic modification in the legal sense. Using chemicals or X-rays to create genetic variation has <a href="https://www.geneticliteracyproject.org/2015/02/05/pasta-ruby-grapefruits-why-organic-devotees-love-foods-mutated-by-radiation-and-chemicals/">long been</a> a mainstay of “conventional breeding”, for example. Other techniques – such as <a href="http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/crispr-a-game-changing-genetic-engineering-technique/">CRISPR</a> – are arguably post-GM, in that they can involve the clinical editing of single genes without leaving a signature of foreign DNA. CRISPR <a href="https://www.jic.ac.uk/news/2015/11/crispr-crop-genes-no-transgenes/#">can produce</a> identical plants to those produced conventionally, but much faster. Yet for some people, biotechnological crop or livestock modification conjures up “triffidophobia”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110863/original/image-20160209-12571-10asr0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chop chop.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&search_tracking_id=Pn9wL9qjtP2ie2RbShav7A&searchterm=CRISPR&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=353873630">Mopic</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Just how wary should we be about new technologies? Conventional breeding has served us well, but can’t keep up with demand or the speed with which the weather is changing. Any change in farming practice has associated risks that need to be assessed and managed, but these also need to be weighed against the risks of doing nothing. To increase food supply to meet projected demand, farming in the same way as we do now, the emissions from deforestation and other changes will <a href="http://www.fcrn.org.uk/research-library/importance-food-demand-management-climate-mitigation">lock us into</a> a world of 4-5°C of climate change. Together with other significant costs to the environment and human health and well-being, that’s probably a greater risk than the alternative. </p>
<p>It is difficult to guess how much biotechnological approaches will contribute to the solution, though. We still need to develop precision agriculture and smarter land use. And even if the gaps between current and required yields are halved – a big ask across the world – we’ll still need more land to meet demand. This would still impact on the likes of our water supply <a href="http://www.fcrn.org.uk/research-library/importance-food-demand-management-climate-mitigation">and create</a> enough warming to challenge the Paris targets. </p>
<h2>… or demand?</h2>
<p>This is where the second option comes in – decreasing demand. <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1104-5">Globally</a>, we feed livestock about a third of all the calories we grow – enough to feed all the people in Asia. About a third of the food we grow is also lost or wasted. And across the world, many people overeat enough to make themselves ill through obesity, diabetes and so on. If we made wiser purchasing and consumption decisions, potentially we could halve current global demand for food. That would create space for sustainably feeding the growing population as well as growing biofuels and carbon storage in new forests.</p>
<p>For me, the message is clear. We are unsustainably using the planet’s resources to produce the food we demand, and there will be very negative results if we continue on the same trajectory. New technology can help, but needs assessed as it is developed. Old technology still has a role; as does reducing waste, over-consumption and meat-heavy diets. There is no simple answer but there is a toolbox, and we’ll need every tool at our disposal to address the challenge we created. Our technology won’t produce The Day of the Triffids, but without it, we may create a future Apocalypse Now.</p>
<p><em>For more coverage of the debate around GM crops, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/gm-food">click here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Benton receives funding from NERC, BBSRC, ESPA and the EU. He is also the Champion of the UK's Global Food Security programme. </span></em></p>The concerns about genetically modified foods are well known. But when we look at population and climate projections, what happens if we don’t use them to increase our food supply?Tim Benton, Professor of Population Ecology, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/529442016-01-19T04:02:35Z2016-01-19T04:02:35ZWhy the rich should do more to save the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108263/original/image-20160115-7368-1i7wvug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bill Gates pioneered the Breakthrough Energy Coalition, an initiative by 28 billionaires to push for more funding for clean energy. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Ian Langsdon</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the remarkable outcomes of the <a href="http://www.cop21paris.org/">climate change negotiations</a> in Paris is an initiative launched by 28 billionaires on the sidelines of COP21 to push for an increase in funding for clean energy technologies. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.breakthroughenergycoalition.com/en/index.html">Breakthrough Energy Coalition</a> was pioneered by Microsoft founder <a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/globalpages/bio">Bill Gates</a>. It is aware of the limits of what governments can achieve on their own in shifting the pattern of industrial development and consumption towards cleaner energy. Even though public funding is critical to the development of new technologies, commercialisation by the private sector is what brings them to the market.</p>
<p>In the age of austerity, many governments are not equal to the weight of the challenge at hand. This is particularly true when it comes to increasing public investment into new areas of research and managing a future that is confronted by multiple risks. </p>
<p>The energy challenge is particularly daunting for Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is energy starved, with 600 million people out of a population of <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/region/SSA">973 million</a> without access to <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/energy_resources_materials/powering_africa">electricity</a>. The entire region, excluding South Africa, has an installed generation capacity of 28 Gigawatts, equivalent to <a href="http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/0,,contentMDK:21935594%7EpagePK:146736%7EpiPK:146830%7EtheSitePK:258644,00.html">Argentina</a>. </p>
<p>This, in turn, affects growth, industrial development and employment. It condemns Africa to a perpetual state of catch-up, chasing after elusive shadows of growth and prosperity. </p>
<h2>Plugging the gap</h2>
<p>Given the general lack of fiscal resources and technical capacity in many African governments to deal with this backlog, working with the private sector becomes a necessity. Africa provides a testing ground for innovative solutions, and initiatives such as the one Gates has pioneered could offer a great opportunity to plug the gap.</p>
<p>Without a doubt, governments need to play their part in creating the right environment to attract greater private sector investment. But ultimately success will hinge on collaboration.</p>
<p>In today’s global system, power to effect change is more laterally organised, and diffused across states, business, wealthy individuals and other influential non-state actors. Solutions to major social challenges at the domestic and global level hinge on co-funding, co-design of solutions and harnessing of will across the private and public sectors.</p>
<p>As William Eggers and Paul Macmillan <a href="https://hbr.org/product/the-solution-revolution-how-business-government-and-social-enterprises-are-teaming-up-to-solve-society-s-toughest-problems/an/11558E-KND-ENG">point out</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>citizens, businesses, entrepreneurs, and foundations, often turn to each other rather than relying solely on the public sector to coordinate solutions to every problem. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The fundamental mark of the shift in the global landscape of power today may not be the rise of emerging economies but the growing role of private individuals and a host of non-state actors. Some may well be far more resourced than many states.</p>
<p>Writing about a Third Industrial Revolution nearly a decade ago, the futurist Jeremy Rifkin <a href="http://thethirdindustrialrevolution.com">predicted</a> that there would in future emerge an infrastructure of collaboration to build momentum for what he called a “post-carbon” future. This collaborative network would comprise the private sector, civil society and governments. </p>
<h2>The role of wealthy individuals</h2>
<p>Although they are often maligned and associated with greed, billionaires such as Gates and others have shown that wealth can be deployed in the service of humanity, especially to purchase a more sustainable future for the next generation. </p>
<p>Since wealthy individuals tap into their personal resources, they do not need to jump bureaucratic hurdles before they commit resources. And the reach of their impact can defy artificial national borders.</p>
<p>Dubbed the philanthrocapitalists, the 28 billionaires who clubbed together in Paris, are collectively worth an estimated <a href="http://www.europost.bg/article?id=15294">$350 billion</a>. They are drawn from both the developed and the developing world. Apart from household names such as Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and Richard Branson, there are also Chinese magnates such as Jack Ma and Neil Shen; Indians (Ratan Tata and Mukesh Ambani); a Gulf prince Alwaleed bin Talal; Nigeria’s Aliko Dangote; and South Africa’s Patrice Motsepe. </p>
<p>They have found a social outlet for their wealth. Their aim is to push for a shift away from the production paradigm of 18th to 19th centuries’ industrial revolution, and to create a more sustainable future driven by clean technologies.</p>
<p>In the context of mitigating the effects of climate change, the Gates-led super elites will be working with 19 governments from developed and developing countries. The countries have signed up to an initiative called <a href="http://mission-innovation.net/">Mission Innovation</a> aimed at achieving global innovation on clean energy.</p>
<p>Developing countries that are part of the initiative include Indonesia, India, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, China and the United Arab Emirates. Not a single African country is member.</p>
<p>There are touted benefits for member countries. The group of 28 investors will prioritise countries that are part of the project in channelling investment into research pipelines.</p>
<p>The collective is seeking to address the twin challenges of:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>low scales of investment into green technologies of the future; and</p></li>
<li><p>energy security.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>For example, they cite the fact that the current scale of funding towards clean energy research is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/obama-bill-gates-to-lead-major-effort-to-spur-spending-on-climate-research/2015/11/29/80b157ca-96e7-11e5-94f0-9eeaff906ef3_story.html">paltry at $10 billion</a>. The investors are committing themselves to double this to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/30/major-powers-pledge-20bn-for-green-energy-research">$20bn over next five years</a>.</p>
<p>Given South Africa’s energy constraints and its commitment to a low-carbon trajectory, it is surprising that it did not sign up to the initiative. It would make sense for the country to use this platform to draw lessons and position itself closer to evolving frontiers of clean energy. Hopefully South Africa and other African countries will, in time, participate.</p>
<h2>Why collaboration is important</h2>
<p>There are a number of lessons that can be drawn from the initiative.</p>
<p>The first is that individual philanthropists or governments working apart from the private sector cannot address major national and global challenges. Collaboration is the future. </p>
<p>Collaboration and networks are likely to be the most effective instruments for tackling social problems from health to food security to climate change and a host of collective problems that confront us in the 21st century.</p>
<p>Remarkably, the group of philanthrocapitalists acknowledge that governments can act proactively by increasing their role in investing in research to stimulate new industries and to seed private creativity. The role of philanthrocapitalists and entreprenuers is to scale up funding and push these technologies towards commercialisation.</p>
<p>If this initiative is sustained, it can be a pioneer for a new form of progressive global capitalism.</p>
<p>There is a need for more philanthrocapitalists who care about the future, who seek to create something that would sustain long after they are gone, and who understand that the value of wealth is to contribute to the betterment of humankind.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mzukisi Qobo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the age of austerity, governments have limited resources to invest in new areas of research – like clean energy – that have multiple risks. Billionaires like Bill Gates can help plug the gap.Mzukisi Qobo, Associate Professor at the Pan African Institute, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/524512015-12-31T09:51:39Z2015-12-31T09:51:39ZOur prettiest pollutant: just how bad are fireworks for the environment?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106826/original/image-20151221-27890-1kedp6d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/paulbrockphotography/6610520679/sizes/l">Paul Brock Photography/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The bangs and fizzes of fireworks are rapidly replacing the chimes of Big Ben as the defining sound of New Year’s Eve celebrations in London, while around the world, city landmarks are becoming stages for increasingly spectacular pyrotechnic displays. Since the millennium, the popularity of fireworks has even extended into back gardens, where smaller fireworks or sparklers are lit up at the stroke of midnight.</p>
<p>Fireworks are great fun. We all enjoy guessing the colours of the rockets before they ignite in the sky, hearing the explosions echo off nearby buildings, or writing our names in light with hand sparklers. </p>
<p>But there is an environmental price to pay. Firework smoke is rich in tiny metal particles. These metals make firework colours, in much the same way as Victorian scientists identified chemicals by burning them in a Bunsen flame; blue from copper, red from strontium or lithium, and bright green or white from barium compounds. </p>
<p>There is more smoke from potassium and aluminium compounds, which are used to propel fireworks into the air. Perchlorates are also used as firework propellants; these are a family of very reactive chlorine and oxygen compounds, which were also used <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/system/system_SRB.html">by NASA</a> to boost space shuttles off the launch pad.</p>
<h2>Terrific, but toxic</h2>
<p>Fireworks can lead to substantial air pollution problems. There are well documented examples from cites around the world. In Spain, metal particle pollution from Girona’s Sant Joan fireworks fiesta can <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304389410009672">linger in the city</a> for days. Across India’s cities, the annual Diwali fireworks <a href="http://www.cseindia.org/content/diwali-pollution-management-needs-rethink">cause pollution</a> that is far worse than <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/21/beijings-smog-red-alert-enters-third-day-as-toxic-haze-shrouds-city">Beijing on a bad day</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106832/original/image-20151221-27897-1v5z3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106832/original/image-20151221-27897-1v5z3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106832/original/image-20151221-27897-1v5z3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106832/original/image-20151221-27897-1v5z3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106832/original/image-20151221-27897-1v5z3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106832/original/image-20151221-27897-1v5z3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106832/original/image-20151221-27897-1v5z3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bonfire night.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dan-s_photos/6337941069/sizes/l">Dan Shirley/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Guy Fawkes is regularly the most polluted day of the year in the UK, although scientists from King’s College London <a href="https://geko.promeeting.it/abstract/DEF/Oral/47PMX_O025.pdf">have found</a> that pollution from bonfires – the traditional way of marking Guy Fawkes – is also a part of this mixture. Fireworks can have significant effects on air pollution in enclosed spaces, too. In Germany, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231013004457">tests have shown</a> how goal and match celebrations with flares, smoke bombs and other pyrotechnics can fill football stadiums with high concentrations of airborne particles. </p>
<p>And of course, what goes up has to come down. Fireworks that fall to the ground contain residues of unburnt propellants and colourants, while particle pollution in the air eventually deposits on the ground or gets washed out by rain. Some of this finds its way into <a href="http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es0700698">lakes and rivers</a> , where percolate has been linked to thyroid problems, causing limits to be set for drinking water <a href="http://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-03/documents/ffrrofactsheet_contaminant_perchlorate_january2014_final.pdf">in some US states</a>. This is a major concern for <a href="https://ecocerf.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/water-and-air-quality-summary-and-exhibits.pdf">lakeside resorts</a> and attractions that have frequent firework displays.</p>
<p>Researchers in London have collected airborne particles from Diwali and Guy Fawkes. These were found to <a href="http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es1016284">deplete lung defences</a> far more than pollution from traffic sources, suggesting a greater toxicity. Across India, Diwali fireworks have been linked to a 30% to 40% increase in recorded breathing problems. Like New Year’s Eve, fireworks are a relatively new phenomenon at Diwali. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106831/original/image-20151221-27884-g5i4bh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106831/original/image-20151221-27884-g5i4bh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106831/original/image-20151221-27884-g5i4bh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106831/original/image-20151221-27884-g5i4bh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106831/original/image-20151221-27884-g5i4bh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106831/original/image-20151221-27884-g5i4bh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106831/original/image-20151221-27884-g5i4bh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A more traditional Diwali light display.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/premnath/14945963553/sizes/l">Premnath Thirumalaisamy/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Traditionally, Diwali was celebrated with the lighting of ghee burning lamps – but this changed with the opening of <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/Two-men-made-Sivakasi-a-fireworks-hub/articleshow/6471038.cms">India’s first firework factory</a> in 1940. An <a href="http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2436508/a-writ-by-3-babies-against-fireworks.pdf">Indian court petition</a> is demanding better public safety information and restrictions on the sale and use of fireworks – but this came too late to limit the smog caused by <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/7185d9987efd4e4598b1c71c5be0b7ea/alarm-over-pollution-delhi-dampens-diwali-fireworks-boom">this year’s celebrations</a>.</p>
<h2>Playing it safe</h2>
<p>Some simple steps can be taken to reduce our exposure to firework pollution. For one thing, setting them off in enclosed spaces is a very bad idea, as are <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11869-014-0281-8">hand-held sparklers</a>. Positioning crowds upwind of fireworks displays is another obvious way of reducing their negative health impacts.</p>
<p>Yet fireworks are already the <a href="http://naei.defra.gov.uk/overview/ap-overview">largest manufactured source</a> of some types of metal particles in the UK atmosphere. And the proportion of pollution from fireworks will only increase, as huge investments are made to reduce other sources of urban pollution. Particle filters are present on nearly all modern diesel vehicles and factory emissions across the developed world are continually being tightened – but firework pollution remains unchecked. </p>
<p>Perhaps the best way to tackle the pollution caused by fireworks is not to have them at all. But this seems rather extreme (not to mention a lot less fun). The high-precision, controlled displays that we see at international landmarks on New Year’s Eve demonstrate the great innovation of the fireworks industry. It’s time for this innovative approach to be applied to reduce the environmental impact of fireworks, so that we can continue to enjoy the excitement of displays for years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52451/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Fuller is also a contributor to the Guardian.</span></em></p>From New Year’s Eve, to Guy Fawkes night, to Diwali, fireworks are an exciting way to celebrate. But these dazzling displays come at a serious cost to the environment.Gary Fuller, Senior Lecturer in Air Quality Measurement, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/524132015-12-18T20:33:44Z2015-12-18T20:33:44ZWe’ve got a climate goal of 1.5 degrees – so how do we get there?<p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris climate agreement</a>, which commits countries to “pursue efforts” to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures, sends a much-needed political signal that the world is ready to take serious action on climate change. </p>
<p>But how do we actually go about limiting warming to 1.5°C? The Paris Agreement acknowledges that developed countries need to lead on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but action in developing countries will also need to be swift, with poorer countries requiring support for a rapid transition to a clean energy future. </p>
<p>While the Paris Agreement has been interpreted as heralding the <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/hidden-gem-in-paris-deal-that-condemns-coal-to-early-demise-32246">end of coal</a> and ushering in a new age of renewable energy, it doesn’t explicitly say those things. But the more important question is to ask how the agreement sets the stage for a global energy transition of the scale and speed required to hit the 1.5°C target.</p>
<p>Article 4.1 of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">agreement</a> (see page 22) outlines how global emissions should peak “as soon as possible” and should decline rapidly thereafter, to “achieve a balance between anthropogenic sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century”. </p>
<p>This ambiguous wording is intended to reflect the recommendation from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers.pdf">Assessment Report</a> that emissions will need to go to zero and then below (“net-°Czero”) in the second half of the century. </p>
<p>The Paris Agreement’s accompanying <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">decision text</a> suggests a specific pathway for getting below 2°C of warming, which involves reining in global greenhouse emissions to 40 gigatonnes in 2030, rather than the currently projected 55 Gt. It also suggests commissioning a special report from the IPCC to look at the numbers that would get us to 1.5°C.</p>
<p>The problem with these numbers is that for <a href="http://apps.unep.org/redirect.php?file=/publications/pmtdocuments/-The%20Emissions%20Gap%20Report%202014:%20a%20UNEP%20synthesis%20report-November%202014EGR_2014_Lowres.pdf">40 Gt by 2030</a> to be consistent with a 2°C temperature limit, this would require <a href="https://theconversation.com/removing-co2-from-the-atmosphere-wont-save-us-we-have-to-cut-emissions-now-51684">large volumes of carbon to be removed from the atmosphere</a> later in the century (known as negative emissions). Getting beyond this to ensure that we hit a 1.5°C is likely to rely on even higher volumes of carbon removal later in the century.</p>
<h2>What are negative emissions?</h2>
<p>Achieving negative emissions involves a form of <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/geoengineering">geoengineering</a> known as Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Options for negative emissions include large-scale forest plantations, bioenergy crops with carbon capture and storage, or directly capturing carbon from the atmosphere. As well as technology limitations, these options are severely limited by the scale of land required.</p>
<p>Of the scenarios in the IPCC database with a 50% or greater chance of limiting warming to below 2°C, around <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n12/full/ngeo2559.html">85% assume large-scale uptake of negative emissions</a>. For 1.5°C, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n6/full/nclimate2572.html">all scenarios rely on even larger volumes of negative emissions</a>. </p>
<p>Relying on taking carbon out of the atmosphere later in the century brings a risk that we might delay action in the next few critical decades while <a href="http://kevinanderson.info/blog/the-paris-agreement-1010-for-presentation-410-for-content-shows-promise/">waiting for the technology to catch up</a>). This could result in runaway warming if the negative emissions options prove to be <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2870.html">unfeasible or too expensive</a>, or <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2392.html">socially unacceptable</a>.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>Pathways for delivering the 1.5°C goal will require unprecedented action. If we carry on burning fossil fuels at current rates, our likely chance of achieving 1.5°C would be blown in just <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/six-years-worth-of-current-emissions-would-blow-the-carbon-budget-for-1-5-degrees">6 years</a> (a likely chance of 2°C gives us 20 years of emissions at current rates). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106574/original/image-20151217-8093-1rppwbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106574/original/image-20151217-8093-1rppwbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106574/original/image-20151217-8093-1rppwbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106574/original/image-20151217-8093-1rppwbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106574/original/image-20151217-8093-1rppwbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106574/original/image-20151217-8093-1rppwbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106574/original/image-20151217-8093-1rppwbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106574/original/image-20151217-8093-1rppwbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carbon Countdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Carbon Brief</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This highlights that, rather than incremental action, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n9/full/nclimate1646.html?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201209">immediate and aggressive emission reductions are needed in rich nations</a>, in order to keep the need for negative emissions options to an absolute minimum, or (for a 2°C pathway), to avoid relying on carbon drawdown at all.</p>
<p>The special report to be produced in 2018 by the IPCC will offer an opportunity for a more informed debate on the level of negative emissions that might be feasible, and the level of action that will be needed over the coming decade in order to limit our reliance on drawing carbon back out of the atmosphere in the second half of the century. </p>
<p>Keeping global warming below 2°C or 1.5°C of warming over pre-industrial levels is still within reach, but it will require an honest and informed picture of the scale of the challenge, and a clear-eyed appreciation of the risks if we delay.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Dooley receives an Australian Postgraduate Award PhD scholarship</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Doreen Stabinsky provided technical support to several members of the African Group of Negotiators during the COP21 conference. </span></em></p>How will the world actually deliver on the Paris climate ambition to hold global warming to no more than 1.5°C? It’s a tough scientific and technical challenge.Kate Dooley, PhD candidate, Australian German Climate & Energy College, The University of MelbourneDoreen Stabinsky, Professor of Global Environmental Politics, College of the AtlanticLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/522382015-12-18T11:06:06Z2015-12-18T11:06:06ZForests gain long-awaited recognition in Paris climate summit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106543/original/image-20151217-8073-16ubg8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Colombia's El Paujil Bird Reserve</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/iucnweb/8890023405/in/album-72157633809482880/">IUCNWeb/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The climate change agreement adopted by 195 countries in Paris last week raised the profile of forests in ways never seen before. </p>
<p>In past multilateral environmental conferences, deforestation proved too <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=Mv5QAwAAQBAJ&pg=PA171&lpg=PA171&dq=forests+developing+countries+sovereignty&source=bl&ots=zh37q3r8M5&sig=NPV8qukhT42TudVbkcQ29NI8IHg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjMwfPD0tfJAhUF9R4KHVZ2BL8Q6AEIQDAH#v=onepage&q=forests%20developing%20countries%20sovereignty&f=false">thorny</a> for nations to reach agreement. Now, however, some of the most heavily forested countries in the world have pledged to fight deforestation and promote forest conservation. </p>
<p>This is a key shift. Cutting emissions from deforestation by leaving forests standing or promoting reforestation is arguably one of the simplest and most cost-effective ways to address climate change.</p>
<p>Forests and climate change are intrinsically related. As they grow, trees capture and store carbon that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere. But they release their stored carbon and become sources of greenhouse gas emissions when they are harvested or burned. Emissions from agriculture and land use change, mainly from cutting down tropical forests, account for <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter11.pdf">about a quarter of the global anthropogenic total</a>.</p>
<h2>The long path to forest regulation</h2>
<p>Countries have been discussing proposals for a binding agreement on sustainable forest management since the mid-1980s. However, at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, negotiations fell through. Developing countries feared that international regulation would violate their sovereign rights to exploit forests and forest resources.</p>
<p>In response, a few nongovernmental organizations and countries decided to reframe deforestation as a climate change issue. In 2005, countries started debating forest conservation in developing nations as a climate change mitigation strategy. In 2010, they approved a <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf">decision</a> on a mechanism called REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries). This strategy would allow developed countries to compensate developing nations for protecting forests. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106565/original/image-20151217-8112-1umuz1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106565/original/image-20151217-8112-1umuz1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106565/original/image-20151217-8112-1umuz1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106565/original/image-20151217-8112-1umuz1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106565/original/image-20151217-8112-1umuz1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106565/original/image-20151217-8112-1umuz1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106565/original/image-20151217-8112-1umuz1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106565/original/image-20151217-8112-1umuz1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Until now, global discussions over deforestation have been dominated by a tension between developed countries pushing for better protections against developing countries’ desire to exploit their natural resources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/crustmania/10094847976/in/photolist-go3JB3-eQDAhE-74izsR-m4jjAr-eQsfsT-eQrUGv-9xVF1e-s4HJr2-eQrYtz-eQDjN7-eQDsSf-iiihKN-orzC9M-eQsgLv-eQs6VX-7eZyih-eQDBnL-6tpuYm-hjcQCu-choxmE-fEoEPr-bxkPGU-7eDB2-D9r9A-5YtmKa-eYvaC8-4BEwed-61U178-guGEfK-e7KaeE-4jaT1j-mCShx-6rqY3M-aUzjVP-o1bZfB-rUxsjA-5W4GCJ-ppdYvZ-7Fq7Sw-e17wMU-bWwxTM-aUztNK-4vvJ1K-8pX2rk-79Mu8g-9AwBiW-4FzoNA-2LR9V1-kfowU-r2P69j">crustmania/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But subsequent REDD debates focused more on how much money countries would earn for conserving forests than on the steps they would take to tackle deforestation. Developing countries continued to resist discussing forest protection at the international level.</p>
<h2>Forests in Paris</h2>
<p>In Paris, nations finally achieved some consensus. Article 5 of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris Agreement</a> encourages countries to implement and support REDD, as well as activities related to “the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries.” For many developing nations, land use, land-use change and forestry account for the majority of their greenhouse gas emissions. That makes this sector a logical place for them to start meeting their commitments under the Paris Agreement. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106558/original/image-20151217-8101-du7779.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106558/original/image-20151217-8101-du7779.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106558/original/image-20151217-8101-du7779.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106558/original/image-20151217-8101-du7779.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106558/original/image-20151217-8101-du7779.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=609&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106558/original/image-20151217-8101-du7779.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=609&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106558/original/image-20151217-8101-du7779.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=609&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chief Raoni Metuktire, a leading indigenous opponent of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:149372.jpeg#/media/File:149372.jpeg%22>149372</a>%22%20by%20José%20Cruz/ABr%20-%20<a%20rel=%22nofollow%22%20class=%22external%20autonumber%22%20href=%22http://img.radiobras.gov.br/img/img.php?F(3fec525d8a391)+s(443d9e10279df)+A(443d9e95c2513)+f(443da12871308)+w(150)+q(100)%22>[1]</a>.%20Licensed%20under%20<a%20href=%22http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/br/deed.en%22%20title=%22Creative%20Commons%20Attribution%203.0%20br%22>CC%20BY%203.0%20br</a>%20via%20<a%20href=%22https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/%22>Commons</a>.">Jose Cruz/ABr/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Including REDD in the climate agreement is only one step toward recognizing forest protection. Developing nations also launched other initiatives in Paris that addressed deforestation and forest degradation: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>AFR100: African nations, with support from nongovernment organizations and the German government, launched AFR100 at the <a href="http://www.landscapes.org">Global Landscapes Forum</a> during the Paris meeting. AFR100 is an African Regional initiative to restore forests. Ten African countries (the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Niger, Rwanda, Togo and Uganda) have committed to restore 100 million hectares of forest by 2030; </p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://standwithforests.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Leaders-Statement-on-Climate-and-Forests-for-Paris-as-of-1000am-CET-Nov-30.pdf">Leaders’ Statement on Forests and Climate Change</a>: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, France, Gabon, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Liberia, Mexico, Norway, Peru, United Kingdom and the United States issued a statement committing to “intensifying efforts to protect forests.” Leaders from developing and developed countries also launched specific partnerships to help reduce deforestation. For instance, Brazil and Norway extended to 2020 their partnership to reduce deforestation in the Amazon Forest and Norway committed new financial support. Norway, Germany and the UK also pledged to provide US$5 billion from 2015 to 2020 for REDD programs. </p></li>
<li><p>National commitments: Some developing countries included action against deforestation in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). For instance, Brazil <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Brazil/1/BRAZIL%20iNDC%20english%20FINAL.pdf">committed</a> to “strengthening policies and measures with a view to achieve, in the Brazilian Amazonia, zero illegal deforestation by 2030 and compensating for greenhouse gas emissions from legal suppression of vegetation by 2030.” </p></li>
</ul>
<p>This shift would not have happened without a great deal of behind-the-scenes work by environmental and indigenous groups, scientists and governments. Pressure from these groups raised the status of sustainable forest management in international negotiations.</p>
<p>For instance, in 2014 leaders from dozens of countries and various companies, nongovernmental organizations and indigenous communities adopted the [New York Declaration on Forests](http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/07/New-York-Declaration-on-Forest-%E2%80%93-Action-Statement-and-Action-Plan.pdf “). This statement included an ambitious pledge to "At least halve the rate of loss of natural forests globally by 2020 and strive to end natural forest loss by 2030.” </p>
<p>In September 2015, all United Nations member countries adopted a new set of <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld">Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)</a>. This framework will set the development agenda for the next 15 years. Goal 15, target 2 stipulates that “By 2020, [countries should] promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally.” </p>
<p>As UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon <a href="http://www.un.org/sg/statements/index.asp?nid=9336">noted</a> at the end of the Paris meeting, “Developing countries have assumed increasing responsibility to address climate change in line with their capabilities.” Now developing countries see themselves as part of the solution and forest protection as an important part of their role. As Peru’s Minister of the Environment Manuel Pulgar-Vidal <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/lpaa/forest/press-release-lpaa-focus-forest-partnerships-progress-to-protect-restore-forests/">observed</a>: “Forest countries in partnership with other governments, the private sector and civil society are set for an increased international effort to eliminate natural deforestation and forest degradation in a few decades.”</p>
<p>New partnerships between developing and developed countries to address deforestation and restore degraded forest landscapes will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In a recent <a href="http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/forest_opportunities_white_paper__iucn_wwf_ca__final.pdf">report</a>, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Climate Advisers estimated that “if just 12 forest countries, including Brazil and Indonesia, meet their existing forest goals this would cut annual global climate emissions by <a href="http://www.wwf.org.uk/news_feed.cfm?7743/Forest-conservation-and-restoration-could-combat-climate-change">3.5 gigatonnes in 2020</a> – equivalent to the total annual emissions from India and Australia put together.” </p>
<h2>Forests and sustainable development</h2>
<p>International support for forest conservation will promote sustainable development and help developing countries move toward less carbon-intensive economies.</p>
<p>One remaining challenge will be finding ways to measure and value noncarbon benefits that forests provide. One strategy might be compensating local communities for their forest conservation efforts. Another would be ensuring that REDD activities enhance ecosystem services, such as watershed and biodiversity protection, and erosion control. </p>
<p>Moreover, countries are still a long way from proposing a specific plan to fully halt deforestation. This goal is part of both the SDGs and the New York Declaration on Forests. </p>
<p>But the Paris conference showed that developing countries are increasingly willing to address deforestation as a global issue. Developed countries should support them by providing funding for forest protection. Global negotiations over the fate of forests are finally moving from resistance to collective action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52238/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriela Bueno does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Forest conservation has been a contentious issue in international climate change discussions for years, but now developing countries are embracing the need to protect their forests.Gabriela Bueno, PhD candidate in Global Governance and Human Security, UMass BostonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.