tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/fiona-kotvojs-88904/articlesFiona Kotvojs – The Conversation2020-07-02T12:31:38Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1418852020-07-02T12:31:38Z2020-07-02T12:31:38ZGrattan on Friday: Saturday is crucial for Albanese but July 23 is more important for Morrison<p>Just under two years ago, Anthony Albanese was expectantly awaiting the “Super Saturday” byelections. Of the five contests, the outcomes in two, Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania, would be critical for Bill Shorten’s future as opposition leader.</p>
<p>Albanese had been circling Shorten, whose unpopularity was seen as a potential drag on the ALP’s prospect of winning the 2019 election. Everyone knew what the game was. But Albanese could only have a chance of moving if Labor lost one or both seats.</p>
<p>It didn’t happen and Albanese’s ambition was thwarted. Shorten was a hero and his victory helped trigger Malcolm Turnbull’s downfall. But the following year Shorten lost the election.</p>
<p>Just maybe, Albanese would have won in 2019. It’s one of the “what ifs” of history.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/border-closures-identity-and-political-tensions-how-australias-past-pandemics-shape-our-covid-19-response-140941">Border closures, identity and political tensions: how Australia's past pandemics shape our COVID-19 response</a>
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<p>Now Albanese finds himself in Shorten’s nail-biting situation. Saturday’s Eden-Monaro byelection is vital for his leadership. Unlike 2018, there’s not a pretender seriously circling. But if Labor lost this seat it holds on a margin of just under 1%, there’d be muttering and likely destabilisation, which usually ends badly for the incumbent.</p>
<p>As the campaign neared its end, NSW Nationals leader and deputy premier John Barilaro, who flirted with running for the seat, was less than helpful to the Coalition when he said, “The loss actually in this byelection is … that we’ve lost [former ALP member] Mike Kelly”.</p>
<p>Amen to that, Albanese might say. Kelly’s resignation (on health grounds) threw the opposition leader into an unwelcome high stakes contest.</p>
<p>If Labor retains Eden-Monaro, that will be a boost for Albanese but say nothing about his prospects for the next election. Nor will it necessarily increase his ability to cut through, an enormous struggle during COVID. Even the development of policy is difficult for Labor in the new world.</p>
<p>This week underscored how volatile things are, when 36 Melbourne suburbs were locked down, and Victorians became the guests other states didn’t want to receive.</p>
<p>Victorian premier Daniel Andrews has a heap of trouble: high case numbers; a scandal around the quarantine security; the complications of a selective shutdown.</p>
<p>Locking down people once was hard enough – having to do it a second time becomes even more difficult, especially when those in one suburb see themselves being treated differently from people in another close by.</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/michaelkoziol/status/1278563774610305025">One Age reader wrote</a>, “As a single person with no immediate family and already working from home, a month in effective solitary confinement is utterly devastating. … Literally all my friends live five minutes away, but all in non-lockdown suburbs. The sense of isolation is total and overwhelming. We are not ‘all in this together’.”</p>
<p>The question now is whether the new wave can be essentially confined to Victoria. The (unknown) answer will be relevant to the federal government’s next round of economic decisions, which are being considered now.</p>
<p>If this Saturday looms large for Albanese, July 23 is more important for Scott Morrison. A Liberal win in Eden-Monaro would be a sugar hit for the PM but it would do nothing to solve the huge problems his government is grappling with.</p>
<p>July 23 is when the government brings down its economic statement.</p>
<p>The statement will update the economic and budgetary numbers. It will also indicate what changes the government will make to JobKeeper - based on a Treasury review - and outline plans for after the scheduled late-September end of the six-month emergency JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments.</p>
<p>JobKeeper, a boon for businesses and workers, had certain design flaws, due in part to its hasty construction. Notably, some people receive more than they were paid before the crisis.</p>
<p>By late July the program will be due to run only two more months. It has been argued that alterations wouldn’t be worth the administrative effort. But if the scheme is to be extended for some businesses, it would be sensible to get it right quickly.</p>
<p>The government finds itself in a bind as it contemplates what to do post September, and indeed how much to put in the July statement.</p>
<p>Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg acknowledge there will be industries needing continuing assistance, including aviation, tourism, hospitality and parts of the entertainment industry. They also recognise business generally wants early certainty about the months after September. </p>
<p>If the July statement fails to provide enough detail about the next phase, that could damage confidence.</p>
<p>On the other hand, it’s risky to lock in initiatives for a future that might change dramatically in a couple of months, including on the health front. The government has to leave itself flexibility to adjust settings if necessary.</p>
<p>The government knows if support is removed too early, more businesses will collapse and even more people will be unemployed. But if it props up enterprises that haven’t a long term future, it will hamper the structural adjustment that will be part of this recession.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-two-leading-economists-on-australias-post-covid-economy-141873">Politics with Michelle Grattan: two leading economists on Australia's post-COVID economy</a>
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<p>The July statement is expected to indicate where the JobSeeker rate (currently around double the pre-COVID level) will go after September.</p>
<p>There will be a fall but how far? It’s generally agreed the rate can’t “snap back” to the old much-criticised amount. But Morrison won’t contemplate any level he thinks could be a disincentive to people seeking work. One option would be to phase the reduction.</p>
<p>Morrison stressed this week just how complex decisions now being considered are, with multiple “moving parts”.</p>
<p>Once it navigates the July statement, the government’s attention will turn to the October budget.</p>
<p>It has raised expectations this will contain significant reforms, always easier to pledge than deliver.</p>
<p>But one reform we won’t see any time in the foreseeable future is a change to the GST, despite the present buzz around that tax.</p>
<p>The NSW government elevated the GST debate again this week with the release of a tax reform review, chaired by business figure David Thodey.</p>
<p>Among other proposals, the report recommends state governments in consultation with the federal government look at options to lift the GST rate and/or expand its base over the medium to longer term. This would facilitate moving away from “harmful taxes including inefficient state taxes”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-is-on-the-precipice-of-an-uncontrolled-coronavirus-outbreak-will-the-new-measures-work-141706">Victoria is on the precipice of an uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak. Will the new measures work?</a>
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<p>When treasurer in the Turnbull government, Morrison had ambitious plans to shake up the GST. After an analysis indicated it wasn’t worth doing, his aspiration came to nothing.</p>
<p>However rational GST reform might be, can anyone imagine the federal government having the stomach for a full-on debate about it as the country climbs out from under the virus? Or the public tolerating it? It would be a gift to Labor.</p>
<p>No wonder Frydenberg was quick to say the government has no plans to increase it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141885/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Eden-Monaro by-election will decide more than the member for the electorate.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1418262020-07-01T11:16:37Z2020-07-01T11:16:37ZEden-Monaro focus groups: Voters want government to cushion pandemic recovery path<p>Eden-Monaro voters are calling for a compassionate and empathetic recovery process as Australia emerges from the pandemic.</p>
<p>In focus group research conducted this week, ahead of Saturday’s byelection, the vast majority of participants favoured increasing the JobSeeker payment above the pre-COVID level, extending the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme, and providing targeted help for areas hit hard by the summer fires and the impact of the coronavirus.</p>
<p>More surprising, almost all participants were willing to pay more tax to assist the economic and social recovery effort. Many were concerned about leaving debt for future generations.</p>
<p>This was the second round of online research by the University of Canberra’s Mark Evans and Max Halupka. Two groups, with 10 and nine participants respectively, were held on Monday and Tuesday. All but three participants had taken part in the research’s first round. Drawn widely from the diverse electorate, participants included aligned and swinging voters.</p>
<p>Focus group research taps into voters’ attitudes rather than being predictive of the outcome.</p>
<p>Both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have been very active in the seat as voting day nears, although over the campaign as a whole Albanese has been on the ground much more than the PM. But the Liberals have invested heavily in an effort to wrest the seat - which is on a margin of under 1% - from Labor and increase the government’s parliamentary majority.</p>
<p>There was only marginal change in participants’ views on the key issues.</p>
<p>Top issues are: action on climate change, the federal government’s response to the bushfire crisis, job creation, better access to public health care, and addressing the high cost of living.</p>
<p>Climate change action continued to receive the greatest support when people were asked to nominate the one most important issue to them. Most participants saw a link between the bushfire crisis and the need for climate action.</p>
<p>People continued to be aggrieved at the Morrison government’s handling of the fire crisis, which they thought suffered from poor federal leadership, inadequate preparation and insufficient collaboration between federal and state government.</p>
<p>In the second round discussion, there was greater concern over economic recovery issues. “The economy looks weak so we will need good economic management and that tends to come from the Coalition,” a retired Coalition voter noted.</p>
<p>But there was some cynicism over the extra support the government has promised.</p>
<p>People saw Morrison’s announcement in Bega of a $86 million package for the forestry industry, wine producers and apple growers hit by the bushfires as “guilt money”. “It’s an obvious bribe - which might well work,” said a middle-aged hard Coalition supporter, while a female Greens voter described it as “a shameful example of logrolling”.</p>
<p>Most participants thought there would still be a bushfire backlash against the Coalition, despite Morrison’s announcement.</p>
<p>The government is hoping Morrison’s performance on the pandemic negates criticism of his handling of the fires.</p>
<p>Since their first discussion, people have cooled in their views of leaders’ management of the virus crisis. Morrison is now seen as the best performer, followed by NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian, a reversal from the first round.</p>
<p>Berejiklian’s poorer performance is attributed to general annoyance with the states and the perception they are acting “selfishly”. The vast majority of participants think Morrison “is handling the coronavirus outbreak competently and efficiently.” But people are worried by a second wave and cautious about re-opening too quickly.</p>
<p>Albanese is a distant third (the question about him was whether he was doing a good job holding the PM to account); his performance was rated more poorly in the second discussion compared with the first. He wasn’t impacting on the core political agenda: “he hasn’t got a plan,” said one participant.</p>
<p>The vast majority of participants, however, did not believe any party was offering a clear COVID-19 recovery plan and were surprised there hadn’t been a national conversation on the issue.</p>
<p>COVID-19 has constrained the usual forms of campaigning, and has led to a very high demand for postal votes. Participants perceived the Coalition had run a very traditional campaign using “old media”, while they thought Labor had run a “new media” campaign with more emphasis on social media platforms.</p>
<p>Both the major candidates are seen positively. Fiona Kotvojs (Liberal) was considered an “excellent” candidate even by Labor supporters. But several people suggested the intervention of senior Coalition figures in the campaign (Morrison and Payne) may have “reduced her community standing”. Labor’s Kristy McBain was considered a “really hard working” and a “very well liked” candidate by Coalition supporters.</p>
<p>But McBain was regarded as having run the better campaign.</p>
<p>When people were asked who they would vote for, the responses suggested a Labor victory and strong support for McBain. However there had been some attitudinal changes over the campaign.</p>
<p>There appeared to be a marginal increase in support for Cathy Griff (Greens) as the campaign neared its end and two independent candidates emerged from the woodwork – Narelle Storey (Christian Democratic Party) and Matthew Stadtmiller (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers) - during the discussion. That suggested the possibility certain soft Coalition voters might be exercising a protest vote against the government.</p>
<p>Some soft Coalition and Green voters might have moved to Labor and some soft Coalition voters to the Greens, but hard Coalition, Green and Labor voters looked to be remaining loyal.</p>
<p>Kotvojs’s well-resourced campaign appeared to be losing some momentum. But the participants continued to think the election – a straight Labor-Liberal battle despite a field of 14 candidates - would be very close.</p>
<p>This is a byelection where even seasoned watchers are wary of chancing their arm in advance of Saturday night.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141826/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Eden-Monaro voters are calling for a compassionate and empathetic recovery process as Australia emerges from the pandemic.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1413772020-06-25T05:45:43Z2020-06-25T05:45:43ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: The Battle for Eden-Monaro – interviews with Kristy McBain and Fiona Kotvojs<p>On July 4, the voters of Eden-Monaro will give their judgment on the performances of Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese.</p>
<p>The seat is held by Labor on a margin of just under 1%. Labor is campaigning hard on JobKeeper ending in late September, while the Liberals are hoping the government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis will outweigh Scott Morrison’s poor conduct during the bushfires.</p>
<p>In this podcast, Michelle Grattan discusses the byelection campaign with the main candidates, Labor’s Kristy McBain and Liberal Fiona Kotvojs.</p>
<p>McBain: “I think everybody’s sick of old politics … this idea that you govern for only the people that vote for you. When you’re elected, you’re elected to represent everybody, whether they agree with you or not. You should be hearing them out, and I want to make sure that people in Eden-Monaro have a strong fair voice in Canberra for them.”</p>
<p>Kotvojs: “There [are] two key issues: one is about recovering after fires and after COVID, and the other is in terms of rebuilding our economy. So in terms of the first one, what we need to do is to look at getting more consistency and an integrated approach between the three levels of government… In terms of the rebuilding the economy, that’s all about jobs.”</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141377/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan talks with the primary Eden-Monaro by-election candidates – Labor's Kristy McBain and Liberal Fiona KotvojsMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1413072020-06-23T11:17:49Z2020-06-23T11:17:49ZEden-Monaro byelection will be ‘very close’, according to participants in focus group research<p>The July 4 byelection in the highly marginal NSW Labor seat of Eden-Monaro is shaping up to be “very close”, according to participants in focus group research conducted by the University of Canberra.</p>
<p>Climate change, job creation, the federal government’s response to the bushfires, and health care were most frequently nominated when people were asked to choose, from a list of 13, the issue that would be extremely or very important in informing how they would vote.</p>
<p>Climate change was nominated by six of the 16, with job creation chosen by three, followed by the government’s response on bushfires and health care (each nominated by two people). The government’s response to COVID-19, support for tourism and action on the high cost of living received one nomination each.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-labor-partys-dirty-linen-on-display-at-bad-time-for-anthony-albanese-141075">Grattan on Friday: Labor Party's dirty linen on display at bad time for Anthony Albanese</a>
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<p>Most participants believed the summer fires would have a negative impact for the Coalition, and that this might make a difference in a close election.</p>
<p>On Tuesday Scott Morrison campaigned in Bega, with a $86 million package for the forestry industry, wine producers and apple growers hit by the bushfires and the effects of COVID-19. While the money is not confined to Eden-Monaro, its target is winning votes there. Anthony Albanese visited the pre-poll booth in Queanbeyan.</p>
<p>The three online focus groups, totalling 16 participants, were conducted by Mark Evans and Max Halupka of the university’s Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis. People were drawn from various parts of what is a very diverse electorate. Two groups were done last week and the other on Monday. Participants included Coalition, Labor and Green supporters, with a mix of firmly aligned and swinging voters.</p>
<p>Participants were asked their voting intentions and their responses suggested a Labor victory. Swinging voters seemed to have moved to Labor but hard Coalition and Labor voters are remaining loyal.</p>
<p>But it should be stressed focus groups are not predictive of the result, but rather tap into attitudes at a point in the campaign.</p>
<p>Asked about management of the COVID-19 crisis, NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian was seen as the best performer, followed by Morrison and the Chief Medical Officer, Brendan Murphy, who were equally regarded. </p>
<p>Albanese - who has campaigned extensively in Eden-Monaro - was seen as having a low profile throughout the pandemic crisis. In the words of one Labor swinging voter this was attributable to “his lack of a platform”. As another participant observed, “Crises are a great advantage for government”. Participants were luke warm about how good a job Albanese was doing in holding Morrison to account over the management of the COVID-19 crisis.</p>
<p>When asked who they listened to most when looking for guidance on COVID-19, people pointed to Norman Swan and the ABC.</p>
<p>Participants’ trust in Morrison has marginally increased as a result of his handling of COVID-19, but from a low level following the bushfire crisis. One man, a strong Coalition supporter, said the PM “needed to learn and has learned”.</p>
<p>A female Coalition swinging voter attributed Morrison’s improvement to “the national cabinet. He was given some good lessons in leadership and the group kept his tendencies under control.”</p>
<p>Discussing issues, people thought the federal government’s handling of the bushfire crisis suffered from poor federal leadership, inadequate preparation, and insufficient collaboration between federal and state governments.</p>
<p>Critics of the Morrison government’s handling of the fires included most of the hard Coalition voters – although it was not enough to change their vote.</p>
<p>There was also a perception the federal government had lost interest in the bushfire recovery process. “It makes sense to tackle the problem in front of you and that’s the virus,” said a Coalition supporter.</p>
<p>In the discussion, most participants saw a link between the bushfire crisis and the need for action on climate, and said their views on the importance of the climate issue had sharpened significantly over the past six months. There were some exceptions: “Older people don’t go with the mantra of climate change, though they know something is going on,” said a middle aged male Coalition voter.</p>
<p>Coalition voters were more focused on local issues – economic issues, better infrastructure and improved access to health care, education and transport. “The Coalition has the track record to get the economy back on track,” said one man.</p>
<p>People generally thought Australia was more resilient than most other countries to bounce back from the COVID-19 crisis. But they were worried about Australia’s economic vulnerability, particularly its dependence on China.</p>
<p>Participants wanted politicians to be more collaborative and less adversarial in a post-COVID-19 world and for experts to have a greater say in decision making. An older female Labor supporter said, “We need politicians to behave better and take community issues more seriously”, while a male Coalition voter opined, “we need more adult politics as the national cabinet has shown us”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-gains-newspoll-lead-as-labor-ahead-in-eden-monaro-trumps-ratings-recover-138793">Coalition gains Newspoll lead as Labor ahead in Eden-Monaro; Trump's ratings recover</a>
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<p>There was some concern the old politics would resume. “[The national cabinet] started well but it already seems to be falling apart,” said a hard-Labor voter.</p>
<p>In a field of 14 candidates, this is a Labor-Liberal battle, and both major parties are running female candidates with good local credentials. The Liberals’ Fiona Kotvojs, who pushed the former MP Mike Kelly close at the 2019 election, has a background in teaching, science, farming and small business; Labor’s Kristy McBain has most recently been mayor of Bega.</p>
<p>The focus group participants thought the two women were strong on credentials but low on having high constituency-wide profiles, suggesting voters would be likely to vote on party lines rather than for personalities.</p>
<p>But some participants noted the Liberals were spending a lot on Kotvojs’ campaign and predicted this was likely to increase in the time remaining.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141307/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A focus group conducted by the University of Canberra has the byelection in the marginal NSW seat of Eden-Monaro shaping up to be ‘very close’Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.