tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/france-presidential-election-2017-29814/articlesFrance presidential election 2017 – The Conversation2017-05-10T06:15:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/772982017-05-10T06:15:16Z2017-05-10T06:15:16ZCan Macron, a reformer who listens, boost France’s global influence and rekindle French hope?<p>As Sunday May 7 approached, many feared France would become the third in a series of Western democracies to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/16/national-tensions-exposed-within-brexit-britain">embrace nationalism, racism or kleptocracy</a>, all of which featured strongly in elections in the US and the UK in 2016. </p>
<p>Despite the high turnout for extreme-right leader Marine Le Pen (who won over 11 million voters) the country eventually chose <a href="https://theconversation.com/french-election-highlights-a-deep-divide-on-the-european-union-77193">democracy, Europe and liberal values</a>, as represented by Emmanuel Macron.</p>
<p>Even the alleged <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/28/europe/french-election-russia/index.html%20http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-macron-leaks-idUSKBN1812AZ">Russia-style hack</a> on Macron’s campaign, which <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/05/french-presidential-frontrunner-macrons-emails-leaked-after-alleged-hack/">leaked campaign emails 36 hours</a> before the elections, did not impede his victory. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Macron’s walk to the Louvre (BuzzTv).</span></figcaption>
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<p>Election day ended on a triumphant note with millions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/07/theresa-may-congratulates-macron-on-victory-as-eu-breathes-sigh-of-relief">around the globe celebrating</a> as the the 39-year-old made his entrance on the Louvre’s stage accompanied by Beethoven’s Ode to Joy, the European Union’s anthem. </p>
<p>For weeks, <a href="http://en.rfi.fr/france/20170424-world-media-broadly-welcome-macron-first-round-victory">the world had been</a> talking about France, giving it advice and telling the French what was – and was not – <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-french-people-dont-know-the-dangers-of-autocratic-populism-a-view-from-pakistan-76953">the essence of their nation</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Everyone had an opinion on France’s election (HBO).</span></figcaption>
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<p>At home, though, <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/francaises-francais/visuel/2017/05/05/francaisesfrancais-j-espere-que-les-jeunes-generations-ne-vont-pas-faire-que-payer-des-impots-ou-travailler_5122838_4999913.html">people were most focused</a> on the pressing need for domestic reforms, and concerned that failure to achieve them would call into question France’s future. </p>
<p>The election was also coloured by sadness, fear and great concern for the state of global affairs – and not just among Le Pen supporters. These heightened emotions will characterise the new French president’s term when he takes office on May 14.</p>
<h2>A profound sadness</h2>
<p>The threat of terrorism, which France has faced far too often in recent years, <a>was an added emotional burden</a> on top of socioeconomic issues that, like <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21688429-fran-ois-hollande-has-one-last-chance-tackle-rising-jobless-rates-mode-demploi">high youth unemployment</a>, have become a constant. </p>
<p>For voters, these domestic realities resonate with the current crises facing Western democracies across the world as they struggle to deliver on promises of international human rights. After all, the three most important <a href="https://theconversation.com/fencing-off-the-east-how-the-refugee-crisis-is-dividing-the-european-union-47586">foreign policy dilemmas facing Europe</a> are at France’s doorstep (and ports): <a href="https://theconversation.com/erdogan-won-his-referendum-but-what-does-that-mean-for-turkeys-foreign-policy-76655">Turkey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/libya-is-not-turkey-why-the-eu-plan-to-stop-mediterranean-migration-is-a-human-rights-concern-72823">Libya</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-very-french-jihad-hundreds-head-to-syria-and-paris-fears-their-return-26077">Syria</a>. </p>
<p>This may be one reason why this election felt so bad for so many. Strangely, the pan-Mediterranean refugee crises was not <a href="https://theconversation.com/cachez-ces-questions-migratoires-que-je-ne-saurais-voir-75746?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton">discussed in any great detail</a> during presidential debates. But there is little doubt that images of people drowning or being rescued by NGO vessels, which regularly dominate headlines in France, <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2017/05/07/environ-6-000-migrants-secourus-en-deux-jours-en-mediterranee_5123607_3214.html?xtmc=le_sauvetage_mediterranee&xtcr=1">were looming in the back of the public’s mind</a>. </p>
<p>Le Pen’s lack of empathy for migrants and <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/desintox/2015/09/17/99-d-hommes_1384819">her continual tirades</a> on the refugee crisis were also well covered in the media, both domestically and abroad. </p>
<p>In Europe and France, <a href="https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2575541">where so many people</a> come from immigrant backgrounds, the fact that many <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/france-election-cordon-sanitaire_us_58fd37bbe4b00fa7de1537a4">French politicians opted to publicly support Macron</a>, who openly supports immigration (though he’s less firm on the importance of aid to refugees) likely gave him a boost.</p>
<h2>Macron’s open hand to France’s past</h2>
<p>Indeed, France today has become a much more pan-Mediterranean country than it was at <a href="http://www.fayard.fr/la-grandeur-9782213600505">when Charles De Gaulle became the first president of the nation’s Fifth Republic</a> in 1959. </p>
<p>De Gaulle, born in the northern tip of the country on the North Atlantic, focused on the country’s continental character and on continental European integration. He was one of the great leaders of France, but not a man with a Levantine or Africanist mindset. </p>
<p>During De Gaulle’s term, the war for Algerian independence brought home over <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/mecca-of-revolution-9780199899142?cc=at&lang=en&">800,000 <em>pied noir</em> French citizens born in Algeria</a> in 1962 alone. French commercial and cultural <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt16gh61g">ties with North Africa continue today</a>, but France and Algeria <a href="https://www.cairn.info/article.php?ID_ARTICLE=RHMC_603_0202&DocId=162730&hits=1337+1332+13+8+">have never been able</a> to heal the scars over their history.</p>
<p>Macron could break with this history. He has suggested that France should <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-for-france-to-face-its-past-and-debate-crimes-against-humanity-74886">apologise for its colonial past</a>. Macron also symbolically <a href="http://www.leparisien.fr/flash-actualite-politique/je-vous-ai-compris-macron-paraphrase-de-gaulle-18-02-2017-6691944.php">linked himself to French collective memory</a> by using De Gaulle’s famous sentence “<a href="http://charles-de-gaulle.com/l-homme-du-verbe/speeches/4-june-1958-speech-made-in-algiers.html">I have understood you</a>” during his speech <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN15X0QP">about Algeria and colonisation</a>. </p>
<h2>A focus on African diplomacy</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39825005">All eyes are now</a> on the reforms that Macron´s new government <a href="https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/france/080517/macron-ma-presidence-mes-premieres-mesures">will be able to concretely deliver</a>. </p>
<p>It is not yet clear which talents, the president-elect can recruit without the support of the ruling Socialist Party. Manuel Valls, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a2544c30-348d-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3">former French prime minister under François Hollande</a>, is hoping to be among the happy few. His legacy, <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2013/12/france-foreign-policymilitaryintervention.html">especially in foreign policy</a>, could be an asset for Macron.</p>
<p>Indeed, despite his definite break with the ruling Socialist Party, Macron’s foreign policy is likely to look similar to that of his predecessor, though perhaps much more successful (<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2017/05/03/exclusif-hollande-quitte-l-lysee-avec-une-popularite-qui-repl_a_22067207/">Hollande leaves office a very unpopular president</a>). </p>
<p>But international relations under the Hollande-Valls government <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/08/end-of-french-socialism-hollande-elections/">were actually not badly focused</a> or badly run. Though he erred in diplomacy at times, <a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/conflict/destabilization-of-mali">as when France militarily intervened in Mali</a> in 2013, Hollande’s focus <a href="https://researchportal.port.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/hollande-and-africa-policy(7c21a96c-dc05-47e0-8998-92c51bc3aa6f).html">on Africa was right</a>.</p>
<p>The African continent is part of France’s history, and it could be a crucial part of its future, too, <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/hollande-doctrine-your-guide-today%E2%80%99s-french-foreign-and-security-policy">through immigration and trade</a> – if relations are well developed and sustained. Indeed, this focus will be crucial if Macron really intends to improve France’s relations with North Africa and to address <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21607847-french-are-reorganising-security-increasingly-troubled-region-fran-ois-hollandes">the region’s security and humanitarian dilemmas</a>.</p>
<p>Hollande raised the issue of the consequences of colonialism <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/dec/20/francois-hollande-algerian-suffering-french">while visiting Africa</a> on many occasions, signalling to Europeans and Africans alike that the time has come to deal with France’s brutal legacy. </p>
<p>Macron could open a new type of dialogue now by focusing not only on how Europe has affected Africa over centuries but also on how Africa has shaped the Europe of today. This would bring to a close an era of diplomatic relations shaped by former and current hegemonies. It would also help Macron attract the kind of innovation <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39843396">he said he would seek</a>, bringing talent to Europe not just from the West but also from Africa. </p>
<p>Without this major change of strategy, European-African partnerships are unlikely to thrive, and the refugee issue, among others, will continue to languish unresolved.</p>
<h2>Macron’s best diplomat: himself</h2>
<p>The key to foreign policy success looks to be Macron himself. Though a relative political newcomer, the president-elect actually began his campaign for leadership in 2015. </p>
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<p>As Hollande’s finance minister, he made regular appearances in <a href="https://charlierose.com/videos/29050">American media</a> outlets. His performances were nothing spectacular; he delivered monotonal but effective messages, with a direct gaze to the camera. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Former US president Barack Obama’s support message for Macron before the elections.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But politics is all about staying on message, and Macron has been developing this skill for some time. He is also an affable fellow, someone the French people <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2017/0404/The-quality-that-may-sway-France-s-election">feel they can talk to</a>. These traits, <a href="https://www.wiltonpark.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/WP1531-Report.pdf">key in international diplomacy</a>, may be one of the reasons he won on Sunday.</p>
<p>Macron made a name for himself in the international arena as a path to power, and that familiar sphere may in fact be where the new French president will prove most able to make progress in the near term. As he seeks to implement his ambitious reform agenda for the EU and for France, he’ll do so from a new global perspective.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77298/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rinna Kullaa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>France’s president-elect made his name in the global arena, and has a diplomatic bent. Revitalising French foreign policy may well be among his early successes.Rinna Kullaa, Tenure Track in Global History, Tampere UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/774152017-05-09T12:19:23Z2017-05-09T12:19:23ZMacron’s daunting to-do list: unite a nation, form a government, reform Europe<p>The French presidential election campaign delivered as many twists and turns as a soap opera. But it ended with an air of predictability. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/emmanuel-macron-33770">Emmanuel Macron</a> polled two thirds of votes cast compared to Marine Le Pen’s one third. There was no late surge from Le Pen. Her performance in the only television debate between the two rounds illustrated how difficult it is for radical right leaders to move from being the anti-system candidate to serious contender.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/from-wannabe-to-president-how-emmanuel-macron-beat-marine-le-pen-to-win-the-french-election-77302">Le Pen</a> and her entourage will take some solace from the fact that she polled around 11m votes in the second-round run-off – 3.4m more than in the first – but the result will nevertheless be perceived by some in the Front National inner circle as disappointing. Given the ongoing difficulties in the eurozone, France’s high <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/unemployment-rate">unemployment rate</a> (particularly among the under 25s), the refugee crisis, the terrorist security threat, Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in the US, the prevailing demand-side conditions could not have been more favourable for the Front National. This is, after all, a party whose whole campaign was built around the notion of a perceived cleavage between globalists (as represented by Macron) and patriots (as represented by Le Pen).</p>
<p>Although Front National strategists such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/31/florian-philippot-could-make-marine-le-pen-president-france">Florian Philippot</a> have always had one eye on the long-term game and the possibility of victory in 2022, it’s not a given that the Front National can continue to grow in electoral terms if the demand-side conditions do not remain as favourable. The party has worked tirelessly to detoxify its image over the past decade but doubts remain as to whether an historically anti-system, radical-right party is capable of positioning itself as a party of government. </p>
<h2>Govern and unite</h2>
<p>Much will of course depend on whether Macron can heal the divisions in France that were so evident during the campaign. His first priorities will be logistical. He must choose a prime minister and seek a mandate at next month’s legislative elections.</p>
<p>Given that a majority of his voters in the second round would have preferred to back an alternative candidate, securing a majority for his fledgling movement, En Marche! (just renamed La République en Marche), in the National Assembly will be far from straightforward. Macron may well be forced to reach out to sympathetic socialists and centre-right républicains to obtain a working majority in the lower chamber. The latter, following the defeat of candidate <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillons-coup-de-theatre-shocks-and-dismays-73877">François Fillon</a> in the first round, will be looking to re-establish themselves as the biggest party in the National Assembly.</p>
<p>The logistical problems of obtaining a working majority to fulfil his campaign pledges will be just the start of the challenges facing Macron’s administration. While his campaign (and others for that matter) have demonstrated a dilution of the traditional French left-right cleavage, the result has only served to underline the social fracture that exists in France. This is well illustrated by the distribution of the Macron vote. It’s no coincidence that around nine out of ten voters <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/french-election-results-analysis/">backed Macron</a> in London and Paris. How he reaches out to those citizens who remain static in their social mobility, many of whom feel disconnected from and alienated by globalisation, will be crucial.</p>
<p>In his manifesto, the new president emphasised educational and economic reform as a means of generating social and economic mobility. But the stark reality is that such reforms may prove difficult to implement in a country often hostile to major structural change.</p>
<h2>The European question</h2>
<p>One of the strategic problems facing Macron, and one central to the so-called “globalist versus patriot” tension, is how to pitch the European question. Although the French electorate doesn’t seem ready to jettison the euro, it has become increasingly sceptical about the role of the European Union. Macron (a self-proclaimed europhile) was not scared to wrap his campaign in the European flag. He even played Beethoven’s Ode to Joy (the EU anthem) as he delivered his victory speech.</p>
<p>Le Pen has, in contrast, increasingly used opposition to the EU as a strategic driver in an attempt to widen the party’s electoral base. This has been a particularly successful tactic in the north of France, where post-industrial unemployment makes it difficult for many to see economic globalisation in a positive light.</p>
<p>How Macron deals with the European question will be crucial to the success of his presidency. He has stated that strengthening the Franco-German axis is central to his project – something which most of the electorate are likely, at least for the time being, to tolerate. However, Macron will also need to convince his doubters, including some of the 12% who either spoiled their ballot papers or failed to mark them, not to mention the quarter of the registered electorate who did not vote in the second round. To help win them over, he must demonstrate that he is prepared to fully embrace the reform agenda which the EU has often tried to dodge. </p>
<p>Solidifying the eurozone and developing the EU’s defence and security arm are obvious directions of travel but Macron will also need to demonstrate that he is prepared to visit more contentious issues if he is to keep the electorate on board. In talks with EU leaders, he shouldn’t shy away from re-examining the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/05/is-the-schengen-dream-of-europe-without-borders-becoming-a-thing-of-the-past">Schengen area</a> and developing a more robust EU-wide response to the EU’s horribly high levels of youth unemployment.</p>
<p>And while it would take a bold French president to seek radical reform of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-eu-common-agricultural-policy-56329">Common Agricultural Policy</a>, perhaps now is the time for boldness. France has a historic, protective stance on the CAP, but it continues to gobble up nearly 40% of the EU budget. Diverting those funds into tackling social problems in EU nation states remains something of a pipe dream.</p>
<p>Failure to fully embrace the reform agenda within the EU could soon damage Macron’s popularity ratings. France is at a crossroads. The direction it takes under Macron will have a massive baring not only on the future of the nation, but also on the future of the EU.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Startin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The self-confessed europhile will need to respond to concerns about the EU if he is to succeed as French president.Nicholas Startin, Senior Lecturer in French and European Politics, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/773442017-05-08T13:25:52Z2017-05-08T13:25:52ZWhat does President Macron mean for Brexit?<p>The campaign for the French presidency revealed a stark fault line on Europe. The openly pro-European Emmanuel Macron called for the EU to be strengthened while the staunchly anti-EU Marine Le Pen promised a referendum on Frexit. Victory for the former therefore raises interesting questions about what his stance will be on negotiating the UK’s exit from the union. </p>
<p>British headlines after the first round of voting portrayed Macron as bad news for Brexit. The <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/five-reasons-emmanuel-macron-would-bad-brexit-theresa-may/">Daily Telegraph</a> described him as “the standard-bearer for open borders and the liberal global economic order” while the Guardian and the Financial Times both suggested he would drive a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/24/french-presidential-favourite-emmanuel-macron-hard-bargain-brexit-talks">hard bargain</a> in Brexit talks.</p>
<p>Macron believes in a strong France within a strong EU and is very keen to rekindle a Franco-German engine that has been stuttering for many years. He also wants to make the eurozone stronger, with specific proposals to establish a <a href="https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/french-hopeful-macron-eurozone-needs-own-budget-678963">eurozone budget</a> along with a parliament and a finance minister.</p>
<p>The new president has made no secret of his deep distaste for Brexit, defining it as a crime that will leave the UK facing servitude. He has repeatedly stressed the integrity of the EU’s <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-14/france-s-macron-rejects-tailor-made-deal-for-britain-on-eu-exit">four freedoms</a> and insisted the UK should not be allowed to pick and choose from the menu. He is also very sceptical about future trading arrangements, based on the premise that “<a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/02/emmanuel-macron-offers-theresa-may-no-comfort-brexit">the best trade agreement for Britain is called membership of the EU</a>”. His hard stance was all too clear when he explained that the UK could only hope for a Canadian-style agreement, which of course excludes many sectors. The financial sector in particular, so important for Britain, is heading for a rude awakening as he rejects any possibility of financial passporting rights.</p>
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<p>At the same time, Macron sees opportunities for France in Brexit. Most notably, there is the chance to attract banks, researchers and other talent across the channel.</p>
<p>Then, there is Le Touquet agreement, which sees migrants trying to reach Britain facing border checks in Calais rather than Dover. He has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/21/emmanuel-macron-vows-aggressive-fight-against-far-right-on-uk-visit">strongly hinted</a> that he would consider dropping this deal and leaving the UK to manage its own checks.</p>
<h2>Bad for whom?</h2>
<p>But whether Macron really is bad news for the UK’s negotiating position depends on the true meaning of the nebulous mantra “Brexit means Brexit”. Beneath the brouhaha, four broad stances can be distinguished: Brexit as a stepping stone to dismantling the EU, with each country following Britain’s glorious lead out of the EU; the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38134859">have-your-cake-and-eat-it position</a>, where Britain would leave the EU but keep its advantages; the “soft” Brexit based on a new close relationship with the EU; and the “hard” Brexit, with all ties severed and trade carried out under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) framework. Macron’s victory brings with it a mixed bag of good and bad news for everyone.</p>
<p>For those who supported Le Pen hoping that she would bring the whole house down, due to France’s central role in the EU, Macron’s victory is bad news. The EU is not going to disappear any time soon and the dream of a brand new world order arising from its ashes is not going to be fulfilled just yet.</p>
<p>For the have-your-cake-and-eat-it battalions and “soft” Brexit supporters, Macron’s victory is, on the face of it, also bad news. His refusal to give Britain any special arrangements or a comprehensive trade deal make that clear enough. And yet, Macron may well, as counter-intuitive as it sounds, turn out to be not such a bad news after all.</p>
<p>A victory for Le Pen would have plunged the EU into existential turmoil, leaving no time or inclination to spend time talking about Brexit. The UK would have been pushed so low down the list of priorities that a deal would never even have been in the offing. A Macron victory is therefore not entirely bad news. The same goes for “hard” Brexit. Had Le Pen won, the UK would be falling back on WTO tariffs with a president intent on protectionism for France.</p>
<p>And of course, Brexit is not a national obsession in France as it is in the UK. Far more pressing matters are already piling up in Macron’s in-tray, from sluggish economic growth to the terrorist threat. He also needs to fight for a <a href="https://theconversation.com/emmanuel-macron-faces-a-really-big-problem-if-he-becomes-french-president-73886">parliamentary majority</a>, or engineer one, in June. For all anyone knows, Macron might end up having to work with political partners who will push him to soften his stance on Brexit.</p>
<p>Macron will undoubtedly be vilified as a die hard pro-European who wants to bully Britain out of a good deal but let’s not make him into a bogeyman. Yes, he will take a hard stance and try to get some of the spoils for France, but why shouldn’t he seek the best deal for his own country? His priority is the eurozone and a new relationship with Germany. Britain’s fate is secondary. And let’s not forget that the Brexit negotiations are to be carried out by the EU as a whole. France has undoubtedly a big voice but it won’t decide all by itself. And at least under Macron, Britain will not be trying to strike a deal with a burning ship.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77344/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ariane Bogain is affiliated with the Trade-Union UCU. </span></em></p>He is a strident europhile, but that doesn’t mean France’s new leader is out to punish the UK for Brexit.Ariane Bogain, Senior Lecturer in French and Politics, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/773042017-05-08T11:09:09Z2017-05-08T11:09:09ZWhy election loss doesn’t spell au revoir for Le Pen or the Front National<p>It’s often said that there are no prizes for coming second. Yet in many ways coming in as the runner up in France’s 2017 presidential election is an opportunity for the Le Pens and the Front National.</p>
<p>Beaten convincingly by centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron in the second round of voting, Marine Le Pen might have been expected to appear downbeat. But lessons can be learned and strategies developed for the next presidential contest in 2022.</p>
<p>Le Pen’s campaign in 2017 was less than impressive. Unimaginative compared with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s innovative use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-hologram-a-family-scandal-and-a-man-on-the-march-the-french-election-just-got-really-exciting-72605">holograms</a>, she repeated much of her programme from the 2012 presidential elections and relied heavily on the traditional pitstops of a presidential campaign: petting animals and bringing croissants to (on this occasion striking) workers.</p>
<p>Even when it came to Le Pen’s use of social media, her campaign team repeated their tactics of 2012, reiterating core messages from Le Pen’s speeches and allowing the odd personal message from the candidate herself. It was a far cry from Donald Trump’s use of online platforms to connect with voters.</p>
<h2>Old themes are the best</h2>
<p>Ironically for a candidate who has sought to tone down the extremist image of her party and to appear more presidential, Le Pen came into her own when her carefully-managed image began to slip.</p>
<p>This was particularly clear when in a radio interview she pointed, unprompted, to the French education system’s teaching of the occupation of France in World War II as an example of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/opinion/marine-le-pens-denial-of-french-guilt.html?_r=0">French pride</a> being dented. Le Pen claimed that those responsible for deportations of Jews during the occupation did not represent France. Echoing the myth established by Charles de Gaulle that all of France resisted and the Vichy regime was not legitimate, she argued that children should be taught that the Nazis were behind the infamous <a href="http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/knowledge/arts/roundups/">Rafle du Vel d’hiv</a> round-ups. This was despite historical evidence that Prime Minister Pierre Laval and the head of police, René Bousquet, were just as complicit as the Nazi authorities. Le Pen spoke with authority on the issue in a way that did not come across when discussing the economy.</p>
<p>Le Pen also thrived during the period just before the first round, after the killing of policeman Xavier Jugelé in central Paris on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/25/macron-le-pen-french-election-candidates-memorial-police-officer-killed-champs-elysees-attack">April 21</a>. Linking immigration and criminal activity has always been a mainstay of the Front National, and Le Pen jumped on the chance to point to the French state’s failure to tackle radical Islam in the banlieues of major cities. This was also a key theme of her campaign before the second-round vote, addressing venues in Nice and Paris with promises to deport immigrants suspected of radical activity.</p>
<p>Yet Le Pen slipped up badly in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-pen-vs-macron-after-an-acrimonious-debate-the-french-will-now-choose-their-next-president-76995">head-to-head debate</a> with Macron. Instead of proposing concrete solutions to the problems of the the suburbs, she lifted rhetoric straight out of Nicolas Sarkozy’s playbook, pointing to “thugs” and “vandals” living in housing estates. This might not have turned off existing supporters but for the undecided voter, the absence of solutions will have appeared resolutely unpresidential. </p>
<h2>Mixed messages</h2>
<p>Le Pen’s campaign was one of mixed messages. She sought distance from the extremist reputation of the Front National but was consistently most energised when on home turf discussing immigration, terrorism and France’s past.</p>
<p>The policy of “<a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21560280">dédiabolisation</a>” (detoxifying the party after the Jean-Marie Le Pen years) has thus had two very different consequences. In making the Front National appear more acceptable, many of the party’s old themes, like immigration, have themselves become more mainstream. So while Le Pen’s success in the first round did not come as a shock, Marine appeared torn in the 2017 campaign between where she feels most comfortable – when talking of putting “France first” or when seeking to present a more refined presidential image.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Le Pen with her niece Marion Marechal-Le Pen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite her loss, all this adds to the experience of Le Pen, her campaign team and the wider party. In a future debate, she will know to avoid entering into a slanging match with her opponent and to focus on concrete policies which tie into traditional Front National themes. At the same time, an energised Le Pen is a convincing Le Pen. Since her temporary <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-marine-le-pen-resign-from-her-party-its-all-part-of-the-plan-76662">resignation of the leadership</a> seems to have made little impact as an electoral tactic, a future Front National candidate may as well continue to embrace the party and its members.</p>
<p>There are many battles to come: from the 2019 European elections to the 2020 French regional elections, in which the Front National stands a good chance of success. The party can, and will, finesse its tactics before the next presidential campaign in 2022.</p>
<p>Marine Le Pen has done much to boost the chances of the Front National, taking the party very nearly to the Elysée this time around. Yet some within the party may well have decided that it was Marine, not the Front National’s membership or its past, who let slip the chance to win the ultimate prize.</p>
<p>Lurking behind Marine is her niece, the intelligent, amiable, devoutly Catholic Marion Maréchal-Le Pen. As the party implements the lessons of the failed 2017 campaign, Marion will remain prominent in the Front National’s electioneering. All is by no means lost for the Front National, but if Marine fails again in 2022 then it may well prove to be au revoir Marine and bonjour Marion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77304/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lees does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victory for Emmanuel Macron is a blow for the far right, but there are lessons to be learnt for 2022.David Lees, Teaching Fellow in French Studies, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/773062017-05-07T23:10:43Z2017-05-07T23:10:43ZA victory for Macron and for the European Union – now it’s time to unite a divided France<p>Emmanuel Macron, the centrist independent running for the French presidency, has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/07/world/europe/emmanuel-macron-france-election-marine-le-pen.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-ab-top-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">soundly defeated</a> Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front to become the country’s next president.</p>
<p>Macron’s decisive victory in this pivotal election for France and the European Union showed that the so-called French “Republican front” still holds. Millions of voters from the centre-left and centre-right, who supported other candidates in the first round of presidential voting two weeks ago, rallied around Macron in the run-off, preventing the extreme right from gaining power in France for the first <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/marine-le-pen-france-far-right-emmanual-macron-ww2-a7714746.html">time since the 1940s</a>.</p>
<p>The election caps Macron’s meteoric and improbable rise in French politics. He was still relatively unknown when President François Hollande selected him to serve as <a href="http://time.com/4572788/emmanuel-macron-french-president/">economy minister three years ago</a>. And when he announced his bid for the presidency last year, <a href="http://fr.euronews.com/2017/04/23/emmanuel-macron-partait-avec-peu-de-chances-de-son-cote-selon-la-journaliste">few experts gave him much of a chance</a>. </p>
<p>Though Macron has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/emmanuel_macron">an impressive pedigree</a>, he has never held elective office. And he ran as a self-proclaimed outsider, unaffiliated with any of France’s mainstream parties.</p>
<p>Now, at just 39 years old, Macron will become the youngest French head of state since <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/05/07/35003-20170507ARTFIG00236-emmanuel-macron-est-le-plus-jeune-president-de-la-republique-de-tous-les-temps.php">Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte</a> (1808-1873), <a href="http://www.elysee.fr/la-presidence/louis-napoleon-bonaparte/">president of France’s Second Republic</a> from 1848 to 1851.</p>
<h2>Vote results</h2>
<p>Macron captured 65% of the vote, <a href="http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Dans-les-grandes-villes-les-Francais-ont-vote-Macron-et-Melenchon-1239662">performing most strongly</a> in France’s big cities — Paris, Lyon, Marseilles, Toulouse and Nantes.</p>
<p>Macron was considered the favourite coming into the run-off, but <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/05/opinion/abstention-frances-last-temptation.html?ref=opinion">some experts warned</a> that low voter turnout could lead to a much closer race than many were predicting. After last Wednesday’s television debate between the two finalists, in which Le Pen was widely judged to have performed poorly, the French polling firm Ipsos <a href="https://ig.ft.com/sites/france-election/polls/">reported</a> that Macron’s lead over her had widened to 26 points, 63% to 37%.</p>
<p>Macron’s resounding victory also showed that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/05/world/europe/france-macron-hacking.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Feurope&action=click&contentCollection=europe&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=8&pgtype=sectionfront">last Friday’s leak</a> of campaign documents and emails had little effect on the election’s outcome. Just before the ban on campaigning went into effect on Friday at midnight, the Macron campaign announced that it was the victim of a “massive, coordinated” hacking attack.</p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/05/world/europe/france-macron-hacking.html">statement released by the campaign</a>, the hack was “an attempt to destabilise the French presidential election” by sowing doubt and misinformation.</p>
<p>There is no firm evidence yet, but French officials suspect <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/russian-hackers-blame-emmanuel-macrons-leaked-emails-could/">that the hackers have ties to Russian intelligence</a>, and are the same group that was behind last year’s attack on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/putins-cyber-play-what-are-all-these-russian-hackers-up-to-65777">Democratic National Committee’s</a> computer systems in the United States.</p>
<h2>Ability to govern</h2>
<p>Macron must now unite the country after one of the most divisive and polarising elections in recent French history. In his speech to supporters, <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-national-unity-victory-speech/">he said</a> that he understood the anxiety and the doubts that many Le Pen supporters expressed.</p>
<p>He must now also deliver on his <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21635835-economy-minister-must-convince-brussels-his-reforms-are-liberal-and-paris-they-are-not-macrons">reform agenda</a>. But whether he will be able to do so depends on the outcome of the elections to the National Assembly, France’s lower and more powerful <a href="https://theconversation.com/six-questions-about-the-french-elections-76141">legislative chamber</a>, which will take place in June. </p>
<p>Macron’s outsider status could be a liability there. Parliamentary elections in France have traditionally been dominated by centre-left and centre-right parties.</p>
<p>Because Macron launched his <em>En Marche!</em> movement just a year ago, the party currently holds <a href="https://theconversation.com/emmanuel-macron-faces-a-really-big-problem-if-he-becomes-french-president-73886">no legislative seats</a>. It is running candidates across the country, but many of them are young and inexperienced, and it remains unlikely that the party will capture the 289 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.</p>
<p>In France, the prime minister as head of government must reflect a parliamentary majority, meaning that she or he may come from a different party than the president. The French call this “cohabitation” and it has <a href="http://www.ladocumentationfrancaise.fr/dossiers/cohabitation/chronologie.shtml">happened only three times since 1958</a>.</p>
<p>Such a scenario would make it harder for Macron to propose and implement his reforms. President Hollande had a majority in parliament, but even so was unable to push through his agenda, and his approval rating sunk to <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21709508-fran-ois-hollandes-approval-falls-4-abyss">record lows</a>.</p>
<p>For now, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-parliament-poll-idUSKBN17Z220">polls are placing</a> Macron’s movement as the frontrunner in June’s legislative elections. <em>En Marche!</em> is <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-parliament-poll-idUSKBN17Z220">forecast to capture between 249 and 286 seats</a>, centrist and conservative parties are projected to win between 200 and 212 seats, the Socialists 28 to 43 and Le Pen’s National Front 15 to 25.</p>
<h2>Broader significance</h2>
<p>Macron’s win is a clear victory for the European Union. Le Pen <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/world/europe/marine-le-pen-france-election.html">had vowed</a> to leave the eurozone, exit Europe’s Schengen border-free travel area, and hold a referendum on France’s EU membership. Macron is a firm believer in the European project of economic and political integration, and has said repeatedly that France is stronger in a united Europe.</p>
<p>But while Europe may have dodged a bullet with Macron’s victory, anti-establishment populism still poses a serious threat to the EU; this was the National Front’s best showing yet in a presidential contest. </p>
<p>When Marine Le Pen’s <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/1127414">father was trounced</a> in the run-off against Jacques Chirac 15 years ago, he managed only 18% of the vote. Le Pen <em>fille</em> nearly doubled that total on May 7. </p>
<p>If Macron is unable to deliver on his political agenda — in particular, giving a boost to France’s anaemic economic growth and bringing down unemployment – voters may turn to candidates of the extreme right or the extreme left in the next presidential election. After all, in the first round of this year’s election, such candidates captured nearly 50% of the vote.</p>
<p>The election has exposed a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/04/opinion/france-presidential-election-debate.html">deeply divided</a> and polarised France. Macron’s win showed a country that is internationalist, outward looking, pro-EU and free market-oriented; Le Pen’s rise <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-french-front-national-is-still-an-extreme-right-wing-party-20983">revealed one</a> that is nationalist, protectionist, anti-EU and suspicious of outsiders.</p>
<p>These same fault lines can be seen across Western democracies today. Last year, they propelled Donald Trump to victory in the US presidential election, and compelled British voters to choose to leave the EU.</p>
<p>Macron’s mandate is uncertain. Many people voted for him in the second round not out of conviction but to ensure Le Pen’s defeat. Despite her attempts to “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/world/europe/marine-le-pen-national-front-party.html">un-demonise</a>” the National Front, many French people still see it as xenophobic and a threat to democracy.</p>
<p>Macron pulled off an incredible personal and political triumph on Sunday May 7. But now the real work begins – and everyone who believes in a strong and united Europe should hope for his success.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Maher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Macron’s win showed France is internationalist, outward looking, pro-EU and free market-oriented; Le Pen’s rise revealed that it’s also nationalist, protectionist, anti-EU and suspicious of outsiders.Richard Maher, Research Fellow, Global Governance Programme, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/773022017-05-07T21:27:04Z2017-05-07T21:27:04ZFrom wannabe to president: how Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen to win the French election<p>After a tense and often antagonistic election campaign, Emmanuel Macron is to become the next president of France. The result is, of course, in all sorts of ways extraordinary. In a little over a year, the 39-year-old former finance minister has gone from being a wannabe to the future tenant of the Elysée Palace. He struck out alone to form his own political movement and while much of the froth surrounding the election has focused on his opponent, the enormity of his achievement needs to be acknowledged and cannot be underestimated.</p>
<p>Even before the first round, all the polls had Macron pegged to win the second round 60/40. But then, between the rounds, Le Pen seemed to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-pens-pm-an-11th-hour-alliance-to-woo-right-wing-voters-77037">nibbling away</a> at Macron’s lead – not by much, but by enough to cause some butterflies among her opponents. Macron appeared lacklustre at a crucial time. Fears of a low turnout and <a href="https://theintercept.com/2017/04/28/melenchon-hero-frances-far-left-will-not-vote-le-pen-wont-endorse-macron/">Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s</a> refusal to formally endorse Macron also threw a number of unknowns into the mix.</p>
<p>A high <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/63f542cc-30ce-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a">abstention rate</a> would play in Le Pen’s favour, went the reasoning. Her electors, as far as anyone could tell, were more committed. In the end, turnout was indeed lower than expected (and there were 4m spoilt ballots), but it did not hinder Macron. Quite the reverse. With an estimated 65.1% of the vote to Le Pen’s 34.9%, Macron has come away with the second highest second round score in the history of the Fifth Republic.</p>
<p>So, now France has a president whose priorities are to tackle chronic unemployment by relaxing labour legislation and introducing a raft of measures to help young people into work, to reduce primary school class sizes to 12 pupils per teacher, to relaunch the European project in collaboration with France’s partners and to simplify the mind-bogglingly complex tax and pension set-up for French citizens. </p>
<h2>What happened Marine?</h2>
<p>Deep down, Le Pen knew she didn’t have the tail wind to take her to victory after a <a href="https://theconversation.com/macron-and-le-pen-to-face-off-for-french-presidency-but-she-wont-be-pleased-with-first-round-result-76565">disappointing first-round result</a>. She had hoped to go through in first place but finished second behind Macron and only 650,000 votes ahead of François Fillon.</p>
<p>This goes some way to explaining her extraordinary performance in the presidential debate on May 3, where she cast aside the opportunity to present her programme in favour of a non-stop attack on Macron. He might not have looked presidential all the way through the debate, but she certainly looked like she was making a bid to be the leader of the opposition rather than the tenant of the Elysée. In any case, it looks like the debate cost her 5% of the vote. It certainly caused consternation <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/05/04/marine-le-pen-a-souvent-donne-l-impression-que-son-principal-objectif-n-etait-pas-d-emporter-ce-debat_5122278_4854003.html?xtmc=cevipof&xtcr=8">among her supporters</a>.</p>
<p>And yet her score is historic. Throughout the campaign she was the one candidate we all assumed would get through to the second round. Her total of 11m votes is twice what her father managed in 2002 – and 5m more than she herself scored in 2012.</p>
<p>On Sunday evening, about ten minutes after the result was announced, Le Pen made a two-minute speech to a small group of party activists, accepting her defeat, but also launching herself as the head of the “première force d’opposition” and promising a transformation of the Front National for the general election in June. She neglected to explain what that means, but she will almost certainly seek to destabilise Les Républicains by appealing to the right of the party.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168238/original/file-20170507-7703-19d65uy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168238/original/file-20170507-7703-19d65uy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168238/original/file-20170507-7703-19d65uy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168238/original/file-20170507-7703-19d65uy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168238/original/file-20170507-7703-19d65uy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168238/original/file-20170507-7703-19d65uy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168238/original/file-20170507-7703-19d65uy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A discarded voting slip says it all.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Smith</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, after a celebration at the Louvre on Sunday night, Macron awaits his formal investiture as the eighth president of the Fifth Republic at the beginning of next week. By tradition, the incoming president announces the name of the prime minister only on the following day. Macron may break with this and make the announcement a little earlier, but there are still <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/05/05/35003-20170505ARTFIG00305-qui-sera-le-premier-ministre-de-macron-s-il-l-emporte.php">calculations to be made</a>.</p>
<p>The electoral process isn’t quite over for the French. Can they survive the risks of <a href="http://madame.lefigaro.fr/bien-etre/election-presidentielle-sommes-nous-tous-au-bord-du-burn-out-politique-030517-132069">electoral burn-out</a>? For now, at least we can all savour what has been an extraordinary campaign and reflect on where France goes now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77302/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>France’s new president is just 39-years-old and started his own political movement barely a year ago. So how did he do it?Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/771822017-05-06T13:51:09Z2017-05-06T13:51:09ZCould blank and invalid votes change the result of the French election?<p>The question of every pollster’s mind this Sunday, during France’s presidential election, will be, “So, how many in total?” – and they won’t be referring to the number of votes for each candidate. Instead, what concerns election monitors this year are <a href="https://www.academia.edu/5505592/_Bulletin_avec_Y._Deloye_in_Yves_Deloye_dir._Dictionnaire_des_%C3%A9lections_europ%C3%A9ennes_Paris_Economica_2005">blank and invalid ballots</a>. </p>
<p>Blank votes indeed are not recognised in the French system, where voters actually have the option to cast an empty ballot, making it the mathematical equivalent of abstaining. This trend <a href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-francaise-de-science-politique-2001-1-page-247.htm">has been slowly growing in France since 1981</a>, including in European Union elections.</p>
<p>In presidential elections, however it <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/03/30/l-abstention-en-hausse-depuis-1958-la-presidentielle-toujours-mobilisatrice_5103297_4355770.html">has thus far been stable</a>, totalling about <a href="http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Presse/Dossiers-de-presse/Dossier-de-presse-de-l-election-du-President-de-la-Republique-2017/Annexe-n-12-les-resultats-des-elections-presidentielles-de-1965-a-2012">6%</a> in the 1995 and 2013 votes (it <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?id=_GyhQAJeOZoC&pg=PA14&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">peaked</a> at 6.4% after the first president of the Fifth Republic, Charles de Gaulle, left office in 1969).</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The French elections of 1969.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Commentators aren’t so confident that trend will continue this year. Some have suggested blank votes could comprise <a href="http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2017/05/05/2569043-vote-blanc-vote-gris-deuxieme-bulletin-face-choix-macron-pen.html">about 10% of all votes cast</a> on May 7. Abstention also could be high if a substantial number of citizens, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/63f542cc-30ce-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a">heed the recommendations</a> of some political parties and trade unions.</p>
<p>If that happens, the impact could be decisive. Emmanuel Macron, the leader of the En Marche! movement, is by far the <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/macron-won-french-presidential-debate-poll/">favourite to win against Marine Le Pen, according to the latest polls</a>. But he could flounder if turnout is unexpectedly low. </p>
<p>Will “lost” votes determine who leads France? </p>
<h2>A spike in blank votes</h2>
<p>Indeed, there are widespread fears of an “electoral earthquake” after a campaign that left <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/22/france-presidential-election-le-pen-macron-socialists">a good number of voters disoriented</a>; both major parties were crushed in the first round of voting.</p>
<p>The entire range of electoral choice has been called into question <a href="https://theconversation.com/france-shuns-mainstream-political-parties-world-experts-react-76564">by the blurring of the left-right divide</a>, dissatisfaction with current governmental institutions, rejection of government by elites, and challenges to economic and social policies. </p>
<p>The blank vote expresses a citizen’s rejection of electoral platforms and/or of candidates themselves. The issue of blank votes thus seems like an apt summary of the failings of electoral democracy in France. </p>
<p>And, on Sunday, each one is effectively a vote lost for Macron in his battle against the far-right Le Pen. </p>
<p>According to a survey conducted just before the first round of voting in late April, nearly <a href="http://www.ifop.com/?option=com_publication&type=poll&id=3708">40% of French voters</a> regretted the fact that the blank vote is not, under French law, <a href="http://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/conseil-constitutionnel/francais/documentation/dossiers-thematiques/2005-referendum-traite-constitution-pour-l-europe/bulletins-blancs-et-nuls.45631.html">taken into consideration</a>. </p>
<p>It is fair to say, then, that the results of this election so far have masked the extent – and perhaps the meaning – <a href="http://www.businessinsider.fr/uk/french-people-not-voting-2017-3">of widespread voter indecision</a>. One startling figure helps to clarify the situation: on May 7, almost two-thirds of voters will have to choose between two candidates they did not support just a fortnight ago.</p>
<p>This situation is unprecedented. How will such people redistribute their votes? And how many of them will choose not to choose, either by avoiding the polls altogether or by sliding a blank or spoiled ballot into the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/5505814/_Urne_in_Pascal_Perrineau_Dominique_Reyni%C3%A9_dir._Dictionnaire_du_vote_Paris_PUF_2001_p._928-930">box</a>?</p>
<h2>Counting blank votes</h2>
<p>Since the mid-19th century, <a href="http://www.eyrolles.com/Droit/Livre/le-vote-9782707611901">there have been calls</a> to recognise the electoral significance of the blank vote in France. </p>
<p>Various movements <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/csuperti/files/blankasprotest_final.pdf?m=1455298855">have emerged regarding blank voting</a> across the world. In <a href="https://www.ch.ch/en/how-where-vote/">Switzerland</a>, <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/csuperti/files/dissertationpaper1_spainitaly_0.pdf">Spain</a>, <a href="http://paperroom.ipsa.org/papers/paper_36099.pdf">Brazil</a> and <a href="http://colombiareports.com/blank-vote-explained-colombia-biggest-electoral-gamble/">Colombia</a>, blank voting <a href="http://www.latribune.fr/actualites/economie/union-europeenne/20140214trib000815495/vote-blanc-ce-qui-se-fait-a-l-etranger.html">is either recognised or counted</a> (or both), depending on whether an election is local, legislative, executive or a referendum.</p>
<p>In some of these countries, voting is also compulsory, and <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0020/16157/ECCompVotingfinal_22225-16484__E__N__S__W__.pdf">non-voters face different sorts of sanctions</a>, usually a fine (though, rarely, imprisonment). </p>
<p><a href="http://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/ITB026en.pdf">In Peru</a>, for example, where voting is obligatory, two-thirds of voters choose a blank ballots, which gives real veto power to citizens come election time.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/10-things-to-know-about-nota-a-voter-s-right-to-reject/story-SkX0EsDQbjG5e2sz0L5N9H.html">In India</a>, voters have enjoyed a None of The Above option at the ballot box since 2013. </p>
<p>France’s own resistance to recognising blank votes was set in stone by a <a href="http://conflits.revues.org/995">February 1852 imperial decree by Napoleon Bonaparte</a>. In 2014 a new law finally allowed <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2014/05/26/europeennes-vote-blanc-comptabilise-premiere-fois_n_5390601.html">blank votes to be counted</a> and separated from null or invalid votes, but they still have no weight among the total count. They are thus as ineffective as abstention.</p>
<h2>In France, blank voting is ‘un-republican’</h2>
<p>The main argument for not taking blank ballots into consideration, which has been put forward by each successive Ministry of the Interior, is that counting such votes would be contrary to the very principle of Republican elections: the obligation to make a decision. </p>
<p>People may be dissatisfied with their political choices, but, in France, abstaining has long been perceived as morally reprehensible (if not punished by law). That is, while voting is not compulsory in France, choosing is. </p>
<p>This requirement has enabled voting within a party system based on a two-round majority vote. Historically, sacred place given to <a href="https://www.academia.edu/5273632/Lacte_de_vote">voting</a> has done the rest, by providing motivation for even for the most puzzled voters.</p>
<p>Today, a majority of voters now feel that they are unrepresented by the electoral choices on offer and distrust the candidates. Thanks to this gap between voters and parties, they are unable to express a real preference or discern differences on the issues. </p>
<p>Paradoxically, if the blank vote were taken into account, <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/21/six-candidats-a-la-presidentielle-sont-favorables-a-la-reconnaissance-du-vote-blanc_5115210_4854003.html">as several candidates have proposed</a>, the French people would like their elections more and voter turnout would increase.</p>
<p>That’s because such a reform would make it more difficult to obtain a majority. Politicians would thus be incentivised to develop platforms that actually meet the expectations of French people. If spoiled or blank ballots met a certain threshold (half of all votes, for example), the election would be voided, compelling another round of voting. </p>
<p>This would be one way to increase the number of people who vote out of conviction, and free voters from the restrictions of the available electoral choices. In short, it would make voting a real, rather than a default, choice.</p>
<h2>2017 – A turning point</h2>
<p>Blank and invalid ballots will not be taken into account for the May 7 election, and abstention in this round has been widely denounced <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2017/05/05/nous-refusons-les-discours-de-la-peur-et-du-declin_5122635_3232.html">by academics, artists, politicians and civic leaders</a> as a reckless abandonment of duty. But that does not guarantee that people will fall into line. </p>
<p>There are two possible scenarios. First, blank voting will have a direct effect on Marine Le Pen’s rise to office and be held responsible for a political crisis of a scale France has not seen since <a href="http://m.slate.fr/tribune/82121/francois-hollande-mort-cinquieme-republique">the end of the Fourth Republic</a> in 1958. This crisis will upset the balance of all Europe.</p>
<p>Alternatively, Emmanuel Macron will win, and his victory will make France forget the unprecedented political instrumentalisation of the blank vote. </p>
<p>The memory of the threat it once posed would remain, though. So the debate on these “<a href="https://www.academia.edu/5273562/Des_voix_pas_comme_les_autres._Votes_blancs_et_votes_nuls_aux_%C3%A9lections_l%C3%A9gislatives_de_1881">votes unlike any other</a>” is just beginning. </p>
<p>For the future of French democratic electoral institutions, odds are high that May 7 will be a date to remember.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olivier Ihl does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Never before in French presidential elections have commentators and pundits expressed alarming concern about the size of the blank voting.Olivier Ihl, Professeur de sciences politiques, Sciences Po GrenobleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/769532017-05-05T14:18:58Z2017-05-05T14:18:58ZThe French people don’t know the dangers of autocratic populism: a view from Pakistan<p>Following <a href="http://continuations.com/post/144500376860/the-dangerous-rise-of-populism">in the footsteps of the United States</a>, the French are looking to “<a href="http://www.ein.eu/sites/default/files/publications/Populism%20and%20Democracy.pdf">terrible simplifications</a>” to solve their problems as they head to the second round of their presidential election on May 7.</p>
<p>Polls predict that Marine Le Pen, candidate of the far-right National Front party could take <a href="http://www.capital.fr/economie-politique/sondage-du-second-tour-emmanuel-macron-creuse-l-ecart-avec-marine-le-pen-1225652">38% of the vote</a>. Even if she loses on Sunday, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/interrogation/2017/04/marginalizing_marine_le_pen_could_backfire_on_the_french_establishment.html">some commentators believe that this campaign</a> has paved the way for a victory in France’s 2022 election. </p>
<p>Viewed from Pakistan, this situation is a direct blow to a country which, in our minds, has been the bastion of democracy, rationalism and <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674001992&content=reviews">enlightenment</a>. </p>
<p>France’s embrace of Le Pen is all the more concerning because, in Pakistan, we know exactly what autocratic populism looks like, and what it can lead to.</p>
<h2>Pakistan’s first populist ruler</h2>
<p>Founded in 1947 during the Partition with India, Pakistan started its <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/259986">journey into nationhood</a> in the turbulent 1950s, after an <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/india-and-pakistan-win-independence">independence bill liberated</a> the Indian subcontinent from the British empire.</p>
<p>Ordinary Pakistanis were struggling to eke out an existence. But the new nation’s leaders were experimenting with an ideology, inspired by “<a href="http://www.deccanchronicle.com/150103/commentary-columnists/article/affirming-two-nation-theory">two nation theory</a>” of Pakistan’s main thinker, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, that advocated for separated nations for India and Pakistan based on religion. To some extent this communal approach prevented the more <a href="http://southasiainstitute.harvard.edu/2014/10/progressive-politics-in-pakistan-qa-with-atiya-khan/">critical progressive left</a> from developing in Pakistan.</p>
<p>The 1960s gave rise not only to industry but also to numerous <a href="http://www.academia.edu/6253583/Economic_Profile_of_Pakistan_1947-2014">economic crises that challenged the fragile young nation</a>. By the end of the decade, frustration was on the rise among the Pakistani people. <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1128832">Widespread protests</a> ultimately brought down president Ayub Khan in 1968, ending <a href="http://www.libertybooks.com/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=39692">Pakistan’s first military dictatorship</a>. </p>
<p>This change opened the doors for Pakistan’s first populist leader, <a href="http://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft9j49p32d&chunk.id=ch8&toc.id=&brand=eschol">Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto</a>, whose Pakistan People Party (PPP) emerged at the end of the 1960s atop a rising tide of public approval and support. People loved its slogan, “<em>roti, kapra, aur makan</em>” – “bread, clothing, and a home” – and in 1970 Butto was democratically elected as Pakistan’s fourth president.</p>
<p>That’s how Pakistan entered the age of populist politics: <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1109105">at the ballot box</a>. The PPP expounded the same goals that we hear contemporary populist parties claim, namely that of freeing the state from tyrannical and incompetent rulers. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Zulfikar Bhutto speaks as President of Pakistan on the war with Bangladesh, NFO archive.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the troubled context of the war with India and the subsequent <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2643071?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">creation of independent Bangladesh in 1971</a>, Bhutto maintained his grasp on power. In 1973 he <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20111016221148/http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/02-Oct-2011/PPP-sticks-to-revolutionary-culture">was elected Pakistan’s ninth prime minister</a>, claiming that he wanted to bring democratic changes to the country. </p>
<p>His populism took an anti-imperialist guise, which garnered wide domestic support given both Pakistan’s own history and the state of world affairs at the time, which included US atrocities <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/vietnam-war-50-years-and-more-later/">in the Vietnam War</a>.</p>
<p>But when his power was challenged, particularly on labour and trade questions, Bhutto abandoned democracy. In 1977 he imposed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/04/22/bhutto-under-pressure-imposes-martial-law-in-three-cities/82563958-4cb5-4fc7-96d9-37c022f8086f/?utm_term=.4df8946d2e35">martial law and curfews</a> throughout the country.</p>
<p>The civil unrest that followed galvanised <a href="http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/zia-ul-haq-zulfikar-ali-bhutto-military-coup-in-pakistan/1/168387.html">General Zia ul Haq</a>. He <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1116762">deposed Bhutto</a> in a military coup that same year and <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1993/10/04/bhuttos-fateful-moment">had him hanged in 1979</a>. </p>
<h2>A repetitive pattern of populist leaders</h2>
<p>This pattern that has been repeated <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1196709">in Pakistan since then</a>. Our shaky democracy never found stability after Zia, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1988/08/18/world/zia-of-pakistan-killed-as-blast-downs-plane-us-envoy-28-others-die.html?pagewanted=all">who was killed in a plane crash in 1988</a>.</p>
<p>Four successive democratic governments were unconstitutionally ousted by military leaders, truncating their five-year terms and <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2012/01/20121181235768904.html">creating a chaotic alternation</a> between civilian and army rule. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/141381/Democracy_in_Pakistan.pdf">Democracy would not return until 2008</a>, when the Pakistan People’s Party won a presidential election on a wave of sympathy for the <a href="http://www.history.com/topics/womens-history/benazir-bhutto">2007 assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto</a> (daughter of Zulfiqar). <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/03/democracy-pakistan">For the first time</a> in nearly 20 years, a government was able to complete its five-year term. </p>
<p>Today, Pakistan once again stands at the crossroads of civilian and military rule. The unpopular sitting government <a href="http://herald.dawn.com/news/1153728">lost credibility</a> with the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36092356">Panama Papers scandal</a> – in which the huge financial assets of incumbent Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s children were exposed – and opponents like the former cricket player Imran Khan <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/imran-khan-says-pak-unlike-turkey-will-welcome-army-rule-divides-opinion/story-4WMlGY68ZKA8ZY6qTap12K.html">are now suggesting that the military should take over</a>. </p>
<h2>The media’s role in populism</h2>
<p>France is still very far from dictatorship, of course. But Pakistan’s history shows that opening the door to populist leaders is a big step towards a dangerous and unknown future.</p>
<p>If you flirt with extremism, you have to be willing to accept its dire consequences.</p>
<p>Today, populism in Pakistan has a broad and idealistic agenda, ranging from sustenance for the poor to changing the world order. Its euphoric 1960s ideals failed because <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1136678">they assumed</a> the possibility of change as a “push-button operation”. </p>
<p>Still, <a href="http://www.thefridaytimes.com/beta3/tft/article.php?issue=20130412&page=1">populism has now become a cultural norm</a> here. It grows from the inner contradictions of a democratic power structure that’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/pakistani-democracy-on-its-knees.html?_r=0">corrupted, incapable of solving social and economic issues and prone to passing liberticidal laws</a>. And it thrives <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/689185">on right-wing patriotic, xenophobic and anti-politics rhetoric</a>. France, take note.</p>
<p>Populist rhetoric also suits the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZbEtPgKE3U">sensation-hungry</a>, ratings-seeking <a href="http://time.com/4761644/hasan-minhaj-white-house-correspondents-dinner-speech-transcript/">corporate media</a>. <a href="http://herald.dawn.com/news/1153740">In Pakistan</a> the media has <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1180756">openly espoused populism</a> by regularly portraying politics as a dirty game of power-hungry politicians. <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2014/08/the-media-in-pakistan/">This narrative</a> gives rise to cynical and anti-politics attitudes within the general public. </p>
<p>To make matters worse, the press covers some of the world’s demagogues, <a href="http://www.cc.com/video-clips/q2o93d/the-daily-show-with-trevor-noah-the-media-falls-for--presidential--trump--again-">in the US as at home</a>, in a very light manner. Such populist extremists are, of course, happy <a href="https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/trumps-inszenierung-bedenkliche-naehe-zu-totalitaeren-regimes/248.173.233">to win more positive media spin</a>. </p>
<h2>A dangerous frustration</h2>
<p>Some 8,000 kms from Islamabad, frustrated men and women in France are sick of politics, too. Watching their presidential debates and TV talk shows, they want to see someone who will secure the nation to bring back their lost pride.</p>
<p>Le Pen’s nationalist <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pens-plan-to-make-france-great-again/">proclamations</a> that France should “not [be] dragged into wars that are not hers” and other Trump-style “make France great again” slogans have become popular simplifications.</p>
<p>When the decision is upon them, will French voters enter the populist realm of “<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1177083X.2015.1132749">the fantasmatic</a>”? </p>
<p>Populism <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2017/country-chapters/dangerous-rise-of-populism">can be far more dangerous</a> than it seems, taking all forms of constraints, from <a href="https://theconversation.com/breathing-without-living-the-plight-of-christians-in-pakistan-70892">negating the diversity of society</a> to censoring <a href="https://theconversation.com/crushing-the-intellect-pakistans-war-on-free-speech-75100">individual liberties and free speech</a>. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-HA8kSdsf_M?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Abstract from Charlie Chaplin’s ‘The Great Dictator Speech’</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Are the French ready for that?</p>
<p>It would be devastating to see France – a nation built on the ideals of transparency, equality, freedom, responsibility and compassion – taken down in a tragedy of its own making. Life is not a reality show, and demagogues do not make good rulers. </p>
<p>Take it from a people who know: there is no glorious past waiting to be restored. There is no golden future, either. </p>
<p>As the prophet Zarathustra <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Spake-Zarathustra-Dover-Thrift-Editions/dp/0486406636%5D">pithily put it</a>, “Not perhaps ye yourselves, my brethren! But into fathers and forefathers of the Superman could ye transform yourselves: and let that be your best creating!”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76953/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Altaf Khan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>French voters should understand what it means to live in a country where autocratic populism is the rule.Altaf Khan, Professor, University of PeshawarLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/769952017-05-04T20:11:52Z2017-05-04T20:11:52ZLe Pen vs Macron: after an acrimonious debate, the French will now choose their next president<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167840/original/file-20170504-21635-u5xamq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In a heated presidential debate, Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron argued over each other like a pair of bickering teenagers as their parents watched on, confused.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the much-anticipated, key policy square-off ahead of Sunday’s French election, the presidential debate was a riveting two-and-a-half hours of cantankerous insult trading, in which neither centrist Emmanuel Macron nor the National Front candidate Marine Le Pen pulled their punches. </p>
<p>A polite way of viewing the moderation by two of the country’s top journalists would be to say that it was “light”, for they certainly barely intervened – except for an occasional reminder about which of the candidates had used up more time, according to the very prominent clocks displayed on their desks.</p>
<p>Coming just days before the run-off election, Macron came into the debate leading by a comfortable 19% <a href="https://ig.ft.com/sites/france-election/polls/">in most polls</a>. But there are still many undecided or uncommitted voters who may have been among the 20 million people who watched the debate live. </p>
<p>For the first hour, the topics centred on the economy, unemployment, social security and taxes. Le Pen consulted her dossiers several times to accuse Macron of being in charge during various plant closures; fake facts that were denied both by him and later by <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/elections-presidentielle-legislatives-2017/2017/05/04/avec-le-pen-l-impossible-debat_1567131?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1493850701">the media</a>. She painted him as a “savage globaliser” who was in thrall to financiers and big business, even labelling him “Monsieur Bankron”.</p>
<p>He called her a liar several times, and took her bait by replying to the accusations. In the process he was temporarily derailed from laying out his own policies. Nonetheless, he did settle down and discuss them in much more detail than she did. </p>
<p>The second hour was ushered in with a switch to security, terrorism, border controls and the European Union. Here, Le Pen came out swinging:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We have to close our borders against terrorism, straightaway, immediately. That’s what I’ll do immediately after my arrival in power.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Macron countered with:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Closing borders achieves nothing. There are many countries outside the Schengen area that have been hit as hard as us by terrorist attacks. And since 2015 we have put back border controls to fight terrorism.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>She argued for security measures that included expulsions, stripping radicalised youths of their citizenship, and closing down extremist mosques. She accused Macron of “submission” to the Islamist movement. She declared it was scandalous that 11,000 people were on the terrorism “watchlist”. </p>
<p>He argued that all people needed to find a place inside the republic, and that some were being let down by the system, including the education system. He called on everyone to examine their consciences. </p>
<p>Macron said he would have “zero tolerance” for terrorism, and said the best counter terrorism work could be done in co-operation with EU institutions. He accused her of falling into the terrorists’ own trap by promoting hate speech, division and “a civil war”. At one point he cast her as “the high priestess of fear”.</p>
<p>Both candidates demonstrated theatrical Gallic disdain, easily worthy of their predecessors Jacques Chirac, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing and François Mitterrand. Several times Macron asked Le Pen to do him the courtesy of not interrupting; the moderators tried this tack too. But essentially they both argued over each other like a pair of bickering teenagers as their parents watched on, confused.</p>
<p>So, who did better? France 24<a href="http://www.france24.com/en/"> called it for Macron</a>. Both Le Monde and Libération called it “an impossible debate”, referring back <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/24/media.france">to Jacques Chirac’s 2002 refusal</a> to debate with Jean-Marie Le Pen, the then head of the National Front. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/05/04/macron-le-pen-un-debat-impossible_5121883_4854003.html?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1493853070">Le Monde</a> decided that in the “ambient cacophony” of the candidates’ exchanges it was not certain that either one of them had been heard, and that no “battle of ideas” had taken place. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/05/03/35003-20170503QCMWWW00402-debat-de-l-entre-deux-tours-quel-candidat-vous-convainc-le-plus.php">Le Figaro</a> asked its online readers which of them was most convincing. Of the 49,269 who had replied after seven hours, 64% voted Macron to 36% for Le Pen.</p>
<p>It must be remembered that France remains in a state of emergency, and volatility inside the electorate is unpredictable. Just three days before the first round of voting a policeman was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-21/paris-shooting-one-police-officer-killed-two-wounded/8459914">shot dead in central Paris</a> – and the French have lost more than 230 people in terrorist attacks since January 2015. </p>
<p>It is impossible to predict how many of the electorate will abstain from voting or spoil their ballots on the day. “Neither Macron nor Le Pen” is a slogan that has been taken to the streets.</p>
<p>Additionally, nobody can be completely sure who the supporters of the losing candidates from the first round will choose. While right-wing François Fillon asked his supporters to vote for Macron, left-wing Jean Luc Mélenchon simply advised that they shouldn’t vote for Le Pen. </p>
<p>The French are being asked to choose between two different visions – one from Macron that looks externally to EU partners in trade and security, or one from Le Pen that closes its borders and yearns for a “Frexit” from Brussels. The latter did come up with the best line of the debate when she provoked Macron with the proposition:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In any case, after this election, France will be led by a woman: it will be me or Madame Merkel.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>What is clear is that after Sunday, whoever wins will need to build a coalition with the same politicians from mainstream parties that they beat in the first round.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76995/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colleen Murrell is co-secretary of the Journalism Education and Research Association of Australia (JERAA).</span></em></p>The French must choose between two visions – one from Macron that looks externally to EU partners in trade and security, or one from Le Pen that closes France’s borders and yearns for a ‘Frexit’.Colleen Murrell, Undergraduate Coordinator for Journalism, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/765962017-05-03T06:27:24Z2017-05-03T06:27:24ZWill a president Macron be able to reform the eurozone?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167398/original/file-20170501-17313-mttqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C0%2C2241%2C1465&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Macron at a rally in Chatellerault, France, April 28, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://pictures.reuters.com/archive/FRANCE-ELECTION-MACRON-RC18E0C95830.html ">Regis Duvignau/Reuters</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>European financial markets are already betting on the victory of centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron in the country’s May 7 second-round election. </p>
<p>Are investors right to believe that the eurozone – the monetary union of countries that have incorporated the euro as their national currency – will gain new momentum with Macron in the Élysée Palace?</p>
<p>After all, Macron, who is strongly pro-European Union, has affirmed several times over the past year that “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/11/euro-will-fail-in-10-years-without-reform-emmanuel-macron">the Euro will fail in ten years without reform</a>”, adding he would promote more and better eurozone governance.</p>
<h2>The importance of the parliamentary elections</h2>
<p>Ultimately, the political stance of the new French president vis-a-vis Europe will be heavily influenced by parliamentary elections in June, which will also determine the prime minister. </p>
<p>According to polls, some <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/16/frances-le-pen-still-has-a-40-chance-of-victory-ubs.html?view=story&%24DEVICE%24=native-android-mobile">40% of the French voters</a> today take an anti-European stance. </p>
<p>Macron’s rival, the National Front’s Marine Le Pen, advocates unconditional rejection of Europe and the euro - even if she appears <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-eu-le-pen-idUSKBN17V0PF">to have softened</a> her stance on the common currency.</p>
<p>On the campaign trail, left-wing candidate Jean Luc Mélenchon and his supporters were also quite lukewarm towards the single currency even if they seemed at least willing to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39627681">renegotiate</a> in favour a different Europe. </p>
<p>If both the far-right and the far-left do well in the parliamentary elections in June, Macron, if elected, would face the task of imposing his views. Will he be able to initiate substantial reform of the euro area? </p>
<p>In the past, he has repeatedly advocated fiscal unity, and during his short term as economy minister he <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6d327720-62c5-11e5-a28b-50226830d644">said</a> that “he would like to set up a common eurozone treasury with a single finance minister.”</p>
<p>Macron would have to deal with the strong anti-European nationalistic backlash and the “<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/macron-germany-france-relations-by-harold-james-2017-04">Germanophobia</a>” of Le Pen and Mélenchon’s supporters. </p>
<p>Whether he can achieve his vision will depend also on his ability to win support across Europe. His idea of a fiscal union may meet resistance there, especially when it comes to <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2013/sdn1309tn.pdf">cross-border risk sharing</a>, which Germany and other northern countries fear will leave them footing the bill. </p>
<h2>An asymmetric monetary union</h2>
<p>The current situation is informed by what happened to the eurozone as a result of its 2010 crisis. To deal with the sovereign debt crises of Greece and several other member countries, the EU arranged financial “rescue packages” conditioned on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jul/03/austerity-europe-grand-vision-unity">austerity measures</a> and policy reforms. </p>
<p>Unintentionally, these actions changed the character of the eurozone – and ultimately also that of Europe – from a <a href="http://bruegel.org/2015/05/europes-integration-overdrive/">union of equals</a> to an asymmetric currency area dominated by creditor-debtor relationships. </p>
<p>The creditor nations were perceived as imposing economic hardship on cash-strapped states, even as the former were contemplating transferring their own taxpayers’ money to reform-resisting neighbours. </p>
<p>The euro crisis quickly developed into a European <a href="https://theconversation.com/balancing-stability-and-sovereignty-will-prove-challenging-for-the-eurozone-9581">political crisis</a>. Today, debtor countries lament their loss of sovereignty and, in healthier nations, support for “European solutions” has rapidly diminished.</p>
<p>The crisis revealed that the eurozone is an incomplete monetary union and, as such, vulnerable to shocks that hit member countries differently. </p>
<p><a href="http://voxeu.org/article/new-voxeu-ebook-how-fix-eurozone">Most economists agree</a> on what could fix this problem: a central bank that can effectively backstop financial crises; a banking union with the three core elements of single supervision, a single resolution mechanism and single deposit insurance; and a fiscal union to facilitate risk sharing. </p>
<p>With respect to the central bank, the European Central Bank, is now doing “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/europes-qe-quandary">what it takes</a>” as it pledged in 2012 , but the European banking union is still incomplete. This is largely because of resistance to a single deposit insurance, especially in Germany, which sees this guarantee as a form of debt mutualisation. </p>
<p>As long as European banks remain in peril, it’s <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-deposits-germany-idUKKCN0RB23X20150911">German insurance contributions</a> that would be transferred to cover bankruptcies of foreign banks.</p>
<p>Augmenting the banking union with a fiscal backstop will be a major task in the coming years, but it may be feasible provided Europe’s economic recovery continues and the banking sector undertakes sufficient restructuring measures.</p>
<p>This brings me to the crucial point: the fiscal union – the idea of a common European treasury, which could ultimately organise fiscal transfers between member countries. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"856210058585284610"}"></div></p>
<p>Macron is very much in line on this with what <a href="http://voxeu.org/content/how-fix-europe-s-monetary-union-views-leading-economists">most economists</a> would - at least theoretically - recommend for making the incomplete monetary union work. But unfortunately, the political appetite for “more Europe” is at best marginal and good intentions could quickly fail in light of harsh political reality.</p>
<p>Still, one should not make the best the enemy of the good when feasible solutions are within reach. An alternative to the fiscal union is to <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/08/31/renationalising-fiscal-policy-euroscepticism/">give back control over national fiscal policies</a> to the countries themselves and abandon various fiscal pacts altogether. </p>
<p>None of them has ever really worked in practice as the <a href="http://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/presse/Pressemitteilungen/Pressemitteilungen-Archiv/2016/Q2/pm-20160523_EU-Staaten-Defizit.html">widespread violation of the EU deficit criteria shows</a>. So it would better to let national governments decide on their budgets and give them back decisions on how to spend taxes. </p>
<p>After all, this is what is being voted on in European elections in general and the French election in particular. And the change would also answer the concerns of those who feel - for right or wrong reasons – that their national sovereignty is being impaired.</p>
<h2>The four conditions for a stable Eurozone</h2>
<p>But does that not mean that the euro area would remain vulnerable? Not necessarily. </p>
<p>As argued by <a href="http://voxeu.org/article/minimal-conditions-survival-euro">leading economists Professor Barry Eichengreen (Berkely) and Charles Wyplosz (Geneva)</a>, four minimum conditions should be met to guarantee the stability of the monetary union in case of a return to national decision making on fiscal matters. </p>
<p>First, a central bank backstopping financial crises and, second, a full banking union. Both these conditions would form a good base for insuring against asymmetric shocks. <a href="http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2014/html/sp141127_1.en.html">A full banking union</a> in particular, would allow private risk sharing through better integrated financial markets, which could cushion the effects of such shocks.</p>
<p>Third, giving back control to national governments also implies giving back responsibility. In other words, a strict no-bailout rule is needed and may even be more effective for imposing more budget discipline. </p>
<p>Finally, giving back control to nations requires reducing debt overhang. This may be the hardest part, as “moral concerns” in some countries may oppose <a href="http://voxeu.org/article/padre-plan-politically-acceptable-debt-restructuring-eurozone">workable debt restructuring schemes</a> – but it would not be impossible either.</p>
<p>Re-nationalising fiscal policy could therefore offer a politically feasible alternative to a full fiscal union as a way of stabilising the euro area. It should be noted, though, that this neither implies not engaging in <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/10/28/the-case-for-using-public-investment-to-boost-growth-in-the-eurozone-is-overwhelming/">joint European infrastructure projects</a> nor abstaining from assistance programs for individual countries. </p>
<p>Such initiatives may, in fact, be easier to implement once unpopular and ineffective fiscal rules are a thing of the past.</p>
<p>A president Macron might thus wish to rethink his earlier view on a fiscal union. </p>
<p>Reforming the euro area is a real possibility. The ultimate issue is not whether we need more or less Europe but rebalancing eurozone governance in a direction that is both politically palatable and provides much-needed stability for the European monetary union.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76596/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harald Sander receives funding from European Union's Erasmus+ Programme (Jean Monnet Chair Action) </span></em></p>Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron’s plan to reform the eurozone if elected is easier made than implemented.Harald Sander, Professor of Economics at Maastricht School of Management and Jean Monnet Chair, Technical University of CologneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/748862017-04-26T06:28:34Z2017-04-26T06:28:34ZIt’s time for France to face its past and debate crimes against humanity<p>As Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen <a href="https://theconversation.com/france-shuns-mainstream-political-parties-world-experts-react-76564">continue their quest to secure the French presidency</a>, it’s time to ask what they think about France’s troubled past.</p>
<p>French colonialism and related wars of independence and the country’s treatment of Jews and other persecuted peoples during the second world war are still <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?id=eKDWCgAAQBAJ&pg=PA341&lpg=PA341&dq=french+history+sensitive&source=bl&ots=ml_rNIAsXG&sig=iM6vTI90-OLG-wbIFZVG-KwmVSU&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiroo64pL3TAhUEnRoKHQsvCo4Q6AEIMzAD#v=onepage&q=french%20history%20sensitive&f=false">very sensitive topics</a> in modern France. </p>
<p>Macron and Le Pen hold opposing views on many issues, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fate-of-europe-will-depend-on-the-winner-of-the-french-presidential-election-76566">both domestic and foreign</a>. But there’s one thing they share: both provoked <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/france-french-election-colonialism-french-colonialism-marine-le-pen-587783">outrage</a>, each in their own way, when they tried to invoke certain divisive moments in French history to galvanise their constituencies. </p>
<p>They bumped up against the fact that when it comes to France’s colonial past public opinion remains profoundly divided. </p>
<h2>Uncomfortable positions</h2>
<p>Le Pen has somewhat distanced herself and her party, the far-right National Front, from some of the views expressed by her father, the party’s founder Jean-Marie Le Pen. He has been <a href="http://www.slateafrique.com/98331/jean-marie-le-pen-t-il-torture-en-algerie">accused of torture</a> in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/jun/04/france.thefarright">the Algerian war</a> (which he has denied) and made <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/06/jean-marie-le-pen-fined-again-dismissing-holocaust-detail">revisionist statements about the Holocaust</a>.</p>
<p>Still, Marine Le Pen has maintained a hegemonist, unapologetic stance on <a href="http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/marine-le-pen-relance-le-debat-sur-les-bienfaits-de-la-colonisation-en-algerie-7788197768">French colonies</a>, which <a href="http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199743292/obo-9780199743292-0160.xml">included in the mid-20th century</a> not just Algeria but also other northwestern African nations, Tunisia and Morocco.</p>
<p>And on April 10 she was following in her father’s footsteps when she <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/10/world/europe/france-marine-le-pen-jews-national-front.html">categorically stated</a> that France as a nation was not officially responsible for the July 1942 <a href="https://www.ushmm.org/wlc/en/article.php?ModuleId=10008213">Vel d’Hiv roundup</a>, in which 13,000 Jews were seized by French authorities and sent to the Nazi gas chambers.</p>
<p>Her remarks outraged Israel, which refuses any <a href="http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/israel-ne-veut-pas-de-marine-le-pen_460968.html">contact with her</a>. And <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/1.784504">Israeli commentators</a> have warned French Jews <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/world/europe/france-jews-marine-le-pen-national-front-anti-semitism.html">not to give in to the temptation</a> of seeing the National Front as less antisemitic than it was in her father’s era.</p>
<p>Her opponent has also made controversial statements about France’s past. In February, during a two-day visit to Algeria, Macron stirred up a hornet’s nest <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20170216-france-presidential-hopeful-macron-describes-colonisation-algeria-crime-against-humanity">when he remarked</a> that France should officially apologise for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jul/05/50-years-algeria-independence-france-denial">colonial atrocities committed there</a>.</p>
<p>Macron <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd1TGg-1Yio%22%3EMacron%20speech%20on%20French%20colonisation">stated</a> that French colonisation itself was <a href="http://legal.un.org/icc/statute/99_corr/cstatute.htm">a crime against humanity</a>, an international legal term for acts of violence directed against a specific, identifiable population as part of a widespread and systematic attack. </p>
<p>During the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/11/a-chronology-of-the-algerian-war-of-independence/305277/">war of Algerian independence</a> (1954-1962), numerous <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGPqpxHJUCg">atrocities, including acts of torture</a>, were committed by French soldiers. <a href="http://guy.perville.free.fr/spip/article.php3?id_article=96">An estimated 300,000 Algerians died</a>, in contrast to about 25,000 French soldiers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166590/original/file-20170425-22270-1ka7u3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166590/original/file-20170425-22270-1ka7u3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166590/original/file-20170425-22270-1ka7u3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166590/original/file-20170425-22270-1ka7u3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166590/original/file-20170425-22270-1ka7u3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166590/original/file-20170425-22270-1ka7u3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166590/original/file-20170425-22270-1ka7u3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the French militia in 1944, which worked with the Vichy regime and the Germans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milice_fran%C3%A7aise#/media/File:Bundesarchiv_Bild_101I-720-0318-04,_Frankreich,_Parade_der_Milice_Francaise.jpg">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This topic has only recently entered <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/03/17/le-monde-relance-le-debat-sur-la-torture-en-algerie_1669340_3212.html">public debate in France</a>. Over the past decade, <a href="http://guy.perville.free.fr/spip/article.php3?id_article=96">several statements</a> have recognised the brutalities of this war, and last year, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/francois-hollande-apology-algerian-war-absolve-france-arab-harkis-a7337166.html">President François Hollande honoured</a> the memory of native Arab Harkis soldiers, who fought in the Algerian war only to be abandoned by the French army afterwards. </p>
<p>These gestures have done little to lift the taboo surrounding the French-Algerian war and other shameful “details” of French history. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166602/original/file-20170425-22270-dse31b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166602/original/file-20170425-22270-dse31b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166602/original/file-20170425-22270-dse31b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166602/original/file-20170425-22270-dse31b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166602/original/file-20170425-22270-dse31b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166602/original/file-20170425-22270-dse31b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166602/original/file-20170425-22270-dse31b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Special commando V66 during the French-Algeria war, 1961.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zouaves#/media/File:Commando_de_chasse_V66_du_4me_Zouaves.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Individuals charged, but not France</h2>
<p>So, Macron <a href="https://theconversation.com/emmanuel-macron-the-french-presidency-and-a-colonial-controversy-73396">caused an uproar by acknowledging French atrocities in the Algerian war</a>, and Le Pen did the same when she denied French crimes during the second world war.</p>
<p>It would be difficult for either candidate, or any single politician for that matter, to reconcile France with its troubled past through such public declarations. The country remains profoundly unwilling to face its demons.</p>
<p>As a state and a nation, France has thus far denied any responsibility for crimes against humanity while, rightly, punishing guilty individuals. </p>
<p>France’s first formal encounter with crimes against humanity came in 1945 with the <a href="https://www.ushmm.org/outreach/en/article.php?ModuleId=10007722">Nuremberg Tribunal</a> in Germany. As an allied victor, France was on the right side of history and helped ensure that Nazis responsible for the Holocaust on French soil were punished.</p>
<p>The trials of <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/butcher-of-lyon-on-trial">Klaus Barbie</a>, Paul Touvier and Maurice Papon shed light on France’s historical approach to this issue. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166592/original/file-20170425-27254-ovhiz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166592/original/file-20170425-27254-ovhiz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166592/original/file-20170425-27254-ovhiz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166592/original/file-20170425-27254-ovhiz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166592/original/file-20170425-27254-ovhiz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166592/original/file-20170425-27254-ovhiz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166592/original/file-20170425-27254-ovhiz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marechal Petain of the Vichy regime with Hitler.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/Petain_Hitler.jpg?uselang=fr">Heinrich Hoffman/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The court convicted Klaus Barbie <a href="http://law.wustl.edu/news/documents/nurembergparadox.pdf">of 177 charges</a>, but it restricted the application of the law to those crimes committed on behalf of a “<a href="http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/trial-of-nazi-criminal-klaus-barbie">State practising a hegemonic political ideology</a>”. </p>
<p>According to the Nuremberg judges, only Nazi Germany fit this definition. Barbie, acting on behalf of such a state, <a href="http://law.wustl.edu/news/documents/nurembergparadox.pdf">was found guilty</a> and sentenced to life in prison. </p>
<p>France, on the other hand, was granted immunity from legal liability. <a href="http://law.wustl.edu/news/documents/nurembergparadox.pdf">According to the judges</a>, the law applied only to criminal acts committed in association with the Nazis. </p>
<p>On the same grounds, Paul Touvier, a notorious Nazi collaborator and a high-ranking member of the French militia (a kind of Vichy police that <a href="https://www.histoire-image.org/etudes/milice-francaise">helped</a> the Gestapo) in 1992 was acquitted of crimes against humanity. <a href="https://www.courdecassation.fr/publications_26/discours_entretiens_2039/discours_entretiens_2202/marin_procureur_7116/apres_nuremberg_35122.html">French legislation claimed</a> that an individual acting under the orders of the Nazi regime was not criminally responsible.</p>
<p>The court later reversed its judgement on appeal. In 1994, <a href="http://www.fayard.fr/vichy-un-passe-qui-ne-passe-pas-9782213592374">based on the Nuremberg standards</a>, Touvier was found guilty of perpetrating crimes against humanity in the “<a href="http://law.wustl.edu/news/documents/nurembergparadox.pdf">interests of the Axis powers</a>”. He was the first French citizen to receive that sentence. </p>
<p>Some years later, he would be joined by Maurice Papon, a high-ranking French civil servant who <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/18/world/europe/18papon.html">was convicted in 1998</a> for his role in deporting Jews in the southwest of France. But the court determined that no deeper investigation into <a href="http://law.wustl.edu/news/documents/nurembergparadox.pdf">the country’s role was necessary</a>. </p>
<p>France as a nation has been repeatedly absolved of any responsibility in the second world war on the basis that all Europe was plagued by Nazi dominance, notwithstanding Vichy France’s widespread and well-acknowledged country collaboration. </p>
<h2>Will France ever own up?</h2>
<p>Collective and national responsibility <a href="https://theconversation.com/wwii-trial-poses-uncomfortable-questions-of-guilt-and-complicity-for-germans-47965">is indeed an uncomfortable topic</a>, for it questions every citizen’s complicity in atrocities. </p>
<p>But it does happen. It happened not just at Nuremberg but also today, as European governments <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/16/middleeast/syria-aleppo-war-crimes-claim/">demand that other countries, notably Syria</a>, reckon with the violence they’ve perpetrated against their own people.</p>
<p>Can France ever face its own past?</p>
<p>Marine Le Pen is unlikely to broach the subject. If the National Front ever wins the Elysee Palace, she would not want to see her country answer for its own terrible crimes. </p>
<p>And if Macron were to reopen the debate when in power, he would most certainly be hounded again by the right-wing political establishment. </p>
<p>Still, France is the birthplace of the Enlightenment. If only in the interest of free inquiry and rationality, it’s time for the country to see the dawn of a new era: one of historical responsibility.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74886/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abraham Joseph does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Should France apologise for committing war-time atrocities?Abraham Joseph, Assistant Professor in Law, Ansal UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/766622017-04-25T12:26:39Z2017-04-25T12:26:39ZWhy did Marine Le Pen resign from her party? It’s all part of the plan<p>The international press has made much of Marine Le Pen’s <a href="http://globalnews.ca/news/3401396/marine-le-pen-quits-party-leader/">announcement</a> that she is standing down from the leadership of her party the National Front. Just after being selected to proceed to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/macron-and-le-pen-to-face-off-for-french-presidency-but-she-wont-be-pleased-with-first-round-result-76565">second round of the French election</a>, she explained that, for the rest of the campaign, she had to dedicate herself to rallying support from beyond her own party in order to become “President of all the French”.</p>
<p>In France, however, media reaction to her announcement has been more subdued and cynical. The decision was described in Le Monde as being a “a pure formality” – a necessary ploy in the second phase of the electoral game.</p>
<p>Le Pen is simply seeking to appeal to voters outside the FN as a non-partisan president. The idea of such a president was initiated by Charles de Gaulle when he oversaw the creation of the Fifth Republic in 1958. He despised the political parties, accusing them of being responsible for creating the vacuum of political power that triggered the collapse of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Fourth-Republic-French-history">Fourth Republic</a>. He liked to present himself as being “above” the political parties, and his constitution ascribes the president with the role of “arbitrating” the political “mélée”.</p>
<p>By standing down now, Le Pen can present herself as “the candidate of the people” in true Gaullist tradition, against her opponent, the candidate of “the system”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166633/original/file-20170425-27254-sf8cs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166633/original/file-20170425-27254-sf8cs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166633/original/file-20170425-27254-sf8cs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166633/original/file-20170425-27254-sf8cs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166633/original/file-20170425-27254-sf8cs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166633/original/file-20170425-27254-sf8cs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166633/original/file-20170425-27254-sf8cs1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Charles de Gaulle: Not really a party animal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ACommander_of_Free_French_Forces_General_Charles_de_Gaulle_seated_at_his_desk_in_London_during_the_Second_World_War._D1973.jpg">Ministry of Information Photo Division/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the idea of the non-partisan president is a fiction. Even de Gaulle needed a party to help him win elections and to build parliamentary support. Likewise, Le Pen’s move is, in reality, purely symbolic. Her party will not meet in any formal way until after the campaign anyway, and her personal authority is such that her leadership position simply remains “on hold” until after the second round.</p>
<p>After the final result, if she loses, Le Pen will simply take back the formal leadership. If she wins, she will hand it over as she turns her attention to presidential office.</p>
<h2>Short-term strategy</h2>
<p>In 2002, Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie Le Pen, rejected a suggestion from his close party advisers (including Marine) that he might temporarily stand down until after the second round, but the situation was different. Back then, he had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/22/thefarright.france">no real expectation of winning</a>. His daughter, however, aims to govern, and to do so, she knows she needs to reach beyond the party faithful.</p>
<p>Support for the second round vote could transfer to Le Pen from several different candidates, right or left. On the right, a fair share of socially conservative Fillon supporters will no doubt opt for her, as will many of the 4.7% who voted for <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/21/35003-20170421ARTFIG00250-nicolas-dupont-aignan-compte-peser-dimanche.php">Nicolas Dupont-Aignan</a>, whose programme is close to Le Pen’s on many issues such as immigration and Europe. But she will probably also gather some support on the left from voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has similar policies with regard to the EU, and in many ways also speaks to those who feel left behind by globalisation and europeanisation.</p>
<p>In fact, the main cleavage to emerge in this presidential election has been the question of France’s relationship with the EU, and the second round at least has the virtue of clarifying a stark choice between withdrawal from the euro, leading ultimately to Frexit, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-party-and-not-much-policy-but-emmanuel-macron-is-still-on-a-roll-73775">Emmanuel Macron’s</a> europhile commitment to rebuilding and reforming the EU on the basis of a revitalised partnership with Germany and a strengthened eurozone.</p>
<p>The deep divisions in France have been laid bare by this election, not just between more or less Europe, but also between urban and rural populations, between the winners and losers of globalisation, between proponents of a closed or an open society, between tradition or diversity. That makes it hard to see how any candidate could seriously claim to be “president of all the French”. </p>
<p>Whoever wins the contest will struggle to unite a France which looks as ungovernable as ever. As de Gaulle lamented: “How can you govern a country which has 258 different types of cheese?”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76662/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Collard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It might look like an odd move, but quitting your party in the middle of a presidential election plays into a particular myth that might appeal to voters.Susan Collard, Senior Lecturer in French Politics & Contemporary European Studies, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/765642017-04-24T14:26:13Z2017-04-24T14:26:13ZFrance shuns mainstream political parties: world experts react<p>The first round of voting in France has concluded, but nerves are hardly calmed. Emmanuel Macron, a former French finance minister who heads up his own political movement, <em>En Marche!</em> (Forward), secured the largest share of votes during Sunday’s presidential election, with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/23/world/europe/emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-france-election.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0">approximately 24%</a>.</p>
<p>This outcome places him ahead of the other candidates, including far-right populist Marine Le Pen. But, with 22% of votes, she is still in the race for the country’s May 7 run-off. </p>
<p>Both candidates have made strong anti-establishment statements, but they promote opposing visions for France, particularly vis-a-vis its foreign policy, economy <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fate-of-europe-will-depend-on-the-winner-of-the-french-presidential-election-76566">and membership in the European Union</a>. </p>
<p>As the candidates ramp up their run-off campaigns, The Conversation Global has asked scholars from around the world to give their view on this tense European contest. </p>
<h2>Luis Gómez Romero - The toughest battle is yet to come</h2>
<p>Both the <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/24/chez-les-soutiens-de-macron-a-bruxelles-cela-va-changer-la-dynamique-europeenne_5116159_4854003.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1492991048">EU</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39688501">markets</a> all over the world are breathing a sigh of relief after the results of the <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/04/23/les-resultats-de-l-election-presidentielle-2017_5115952_4355770.html">first round</a> of the French election. </p>
<p>The prospect of a final victory of Emmanuel Macron – who has pledged to promote a “<a href="https://en-marche.fr/emmanuel-macron/le-programme/europe">rebirth</a>” of the EU – over the right-wing firebrand Marine Le Pen has sent the euro soaring to its <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/23/euro-surges-towards-six-month-high-early-projections-indicate/">highest level</a> in almost six months.</p>
<p>The April 23 results will also facilitate Mexico’s own survival strategies after Donald Trump has threatened to dump the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he has <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-tpp-nafta-president-trade-deals-mexico-canada-china-executive-order-a7541611.html">called</a> “the worse trade deal” ever. In an urgent move to mitigate the impact of US protectionism on Mexican economy, Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration is now <a href="http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2017/02/01/589237a846163f846b8b457d.html">pushing</a> for a renewal of its free trade agreement with the EU.</p>
<p>Mexicans can be relatively confident that the EU will survive the French election. It would be very difficult for Le Pen to win the second round. Both the conservative François Fillon and the socialist Benoît Hamon, following the tradition of “<em><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/23/french-presidential-election-emmanuel-macron-le-pen">le Pacte Républicain</a></em>” that previously blocked the National Front in 2002, <a href="http://www.leparisien.fr/flash-actualite-politique/appel-quasi-unanime-de-la-classe-politique-a-voter-macron-23-04-2017-6882210.php">have asked their supporters</a> to vote for Macron.</p>
<p>Yet the genie of discontent that Le Pen’s <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/04/23/les-resultats-de-l-election-presidentielle-2017_5115952_4355770.html">22.9%</a> share of the vote has evidenced is not getting back into the bottle at any time soon. The next French president will come from neither of the two main traditional parties for the first time <a href="http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/04/23/actualidad/1492971204_654849.html">since the foundation of the Fifth Republic</a> in 1958. </p>
<p>This is symptomatic of how little mainstream political parties have to offer to effectively redress basic social problems caused by <a href="http://ctxt.es/es/20170315/Politica/11447/Politica-Francia-Elecciones-Presidenciales-Thomas-Guenole.htm">capitalist globalisation</a> – such as unemployment, job precariousness and the impact of migration in configuring multicultural societies.</p>
<p>Le Pen’s National Front has many <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/02/france-national-front-marine-le-pen-fascism-antisemitism-xenophobia/">similarities</a> with fascism. It would hence be convenient to remember that, in the 1930s, fascist parties didn’t raise to victory based on pure hatred and discrimination: they also offered their voters <a href="https://aeon.co/ideas/fascism-was-a-right-wing-anti-capitalist-movement">alternative narratives</a> on protection against predatory capitalism. </p>
<p>These narratives should be central to Macron’s campaign if he wants to obtain, in the legislative elections in June, a big enough majority in the National Assembly to govern. Considering that his movement <em><a href="https://en-marche.fr/">En Marche!</a></em> didn’t even exist a year ago, the toughest battle is yet to come.</p>
<h2>Simon Watmough - French election could endanger relations with Turkey</h2>
<p>While France and Turkey have a very long and rich connection <a href="http://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/european-issues/0262-france-and-turkey-new-horizons-for-a-secular-relationship">that extends back centuries</a>, their relations have been deteriorating since the mid 2000s, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/oct/02/eu.france">when France vetoed Turkey’s accession</a> to the European Union.</p>
<p>Dating back to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/1497072/Chirac-on-collision-course-with-Blair-over-Turkey-in-EU.html.">president Jacques Chirac</a>, French presidents have largely used Turkey’s status as a Muslim-majority nation and French domestic resentment about its large first- and second-generation Turkish population to mobilise <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2009/05/19/les-desarrois-turquesques-de-sarkozy_558771">anti-Turkey sentiment</a> during elections. </p>
<p>This first round of elections was no differrent: both the centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen antagonised Turkey over its April 18 <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkeys-constitutional-referendum-experts-express-fear-for-a-divided-country-76289">referendum</a>, which dramatically expanded the powers of Recep Tayipp Erdogan, Turkey’s president.</p>
<p>Emmanuel Macron took the opportunity to bolster his centrist and EU credentials <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Politics/c9M94s729vIG1qFAuZC40O/Turkey-referendum-Merkel-calls-for-talks-France-warns-on-d.html">by criticising</a> the referendum results, saying they were indicative of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism.</p>
<p>Marine Le Pen, who had blasted <a href="http://www.gulf-times.com/story/537250/Fillon-and-Le-Pen-attack-government-for-allowing-r">Turkey’s referendum rallies</a> in March, actually promotes within France a vision similar to President Erdogan’s conservative, “country first” populism. She hopes for “<a href="http://int.ert.gr/marine-le-pen-frexit-is-part-of-my-policy/">a privileged relation with Turkey</a>” and, if in power, <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/795288/Marine-Le-Pen-French-Presidential-Elections-European-Union-Germany-Die-Welt">says she would orchestrate France’s exit from the bloc</a>. </p>
<p>To add fuel to the fire, this past weekend, French professor Philippe Moreau Defarges, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations, <a href="http://www.trtworld.com/europe/french-professor-calls-to-assassinate-erdogan-341505">asserted</a> that the best way to “deal” with Erdogan would be a political assassination. Predictably, many outraged Turkish citizens living in France took to social media to express their dismay. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166365/original/file-20170423-12650-1e7cauh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166365/original/file-20170423-12650-1e7cauh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166365/original/file-20170423-12650-1e7cauh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166365/original/file-20170423-12650-1e7cauh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166365/original/file-20170423-12650-1e7cauh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166365/original/file-20170423-12650-1e7cauh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166365/original/file-20170423-12650-1e7cauh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reactions from Turks in France outraged by the statement of Professor Moreau Defarges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Erdogan, for his part, has been highly adept at <a href="http://asbarez.com/52742/turkeys-erdogan-to-chirac-keep-it-to-yourself/">using French claims</a> that Turkey is not Europe to bolster his argument that Europe will never accept Turkey as a member and to present <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-latest-bump-in-the-road-of-turkeys-quest-to-join-the-eu-european-ultra-nationalism-74639">France as a bastion of European Islamophobia</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.zamanfrance.fr/article/communaute-turque-compte-611515-personnes-en-france-7311.html">Some half a million first-</a> and <a href="https://hommesmigrations.revues.org/286?lang=en">second-generation</a> Turks (<a href="https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2575541">about 4% of people</a> among those with at least one immigrant parent in 2015) live in France today. The Turkish community is widely viewed as <a href="http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/36059/INTERACT-RR-2015%20-%2014_France.pdf;sequence=1">the least integrated</a> immigrant community in France due to local Turks’ <a href="http://en.rfi.fr/general/20160805-french-turks-divided-turkey-failed-coup">strong connections </a> to their home country. Policies of the Turkish state also encourage them in this direction.</p>
<p>It will be interesting to analyse how Turkish-French citizens vote on May 7. For now, what’s certain is that given the resurgence of the French far-right and Turkey’s lurch toward authoritarianism, prospects for renewed relations between the two nations are dim.</p>
<h2>Balveer Arora - Election ‘has echoes in India’</h2>
<p>The French presidential election has aroused great interest in India. The context has undoubtedly something to do with it, sandwiched as they are between the Brexit vote and the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-election-afd-idUSKBN17P0DO">upcoming German elections</a>. </p>
<p>Given the restrictive policies of the Trump administration, the direction that Europe will now take is of acute interest here, as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/747d7f7a-d808-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e">Indian students and professionals</a> turn their gaze away from the US to other possible destinations. </p>
<p>Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the first round has allayed fears of the backlash against globalisation wrecking the European Union. His political positioning as neither left nor right, and his invocation <a href="http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/elections/a-lyon-macron-se-prend-pour-de-gaulle_1876095.html">of general Charles de Gaulle</a> – the first president of the French Fifth Republic and former leader of the resistance – while founding his movement, echoed the foundational principles of modern France. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.lepoint.fr/politique/francois-hollande-aurait-il-choisi-emmanuel-macron-15-01-2017-2097290_20.php">The astute choreography of his rise</a>, designed by none other than the unpopular French president Francois Hollande himself, was also a fascinating study in political strategy. </p>
<p>Marine Le Pen’s Right-wing ultra-nationalist ideology has parallels in India. <a href="https://news.vice.com/story/the-rise-and-fall-and-possible-rise-again-of-marine-le-pen-frances-answer-to-donald-trump">The trajectory of her party</a> over the past 15 years – from outcast untouchable to major player – recalls that India’s ruling Hindu nationalist party, the BJP <a href="https://qz.com/630144/explainer-what-are-the-origins-of-todays-hindu-nationalism/">clawed its way to respectability</a> after having been ostracised for its hostility towards minorities. </p>
<p>France’s hybrid regime of the executive presidency (<a href="http://www.gouvernement.fr/en/how-government-works">with a strong prime minister</a> appointed by the president) has been watched in India since the mid-1970s, when Indira Gandhi’s government discussed <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/india/hindustan-times-st-jaipur/20170330/281736974291720">constitutional reforms</a>. Indeed, the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/fp.2015.4">French model</a> has been cited in <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/frances-new-five-year-presidential-term/">many reform proposals</a> for its promise of a stronger central leader liberated from the constraints of a fragmented parliament. </p>
<p>The fact <a href="https://www.ukessays.com/essays/politics/the-semi-presidential-system-in-france-politics-essay.php">that this regime</a>, which was being <a href="http://www.lesinrocks.com/2016/11/20/actualite/faut-remettre-question-democratie-11876770/">questioned during the campaign</a>, appears to have got a second lease of life with Macron’s first-round victory will strike a chord in India. </p>
<p>The apparent decline of the major national parties is a development that will be followed closely when <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/the-french-election-that-really-matters-president-parliament-2017-le-pen-macron-fillon-hamon/">legislative elections come around in June</a>. Will the new parliamentary majority inaugurate an era of coalitions and <em>cohabitation</em>, (a scenario in which the president in power works with a parliament composed of the opposition), or will it further accelerate the decomposition of the mainstream parties?</p>
<h2>Donatella Della Porta - Anti-establishment wins, and so does the radical left</h2>
<p>Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have emerged triumphant from 11 candidates this week end, showing that anti-establishment candidates were favourite for French voters. This trend confirms the increasing relevance of new electoral politics in Europe and the continued need for strong social movements. </p>
<p>It’s important to note the success of the far left in this election. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/left-wing-firebrand-jean-lucmelenchon-policies/">a surprise challenger</a> with his “<em>La France Insoumise</em>” rallying cry, came in fourth place, with 19,2% of the votes, just behind François Fillon (who got 20%). </p>
<p>The centre-left parties are <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21695887-centre-left-sharp-decline-across-europe-rose-thou-art-sick">losing members and voters</a> in Europe, and the radical left that is <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/04/how-jean-luc-m-lenchon-built-resistance">emerging in its place is capable of attracting</a> not only attention but also extraordinary electoral success. Take, as examples, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/26/spain-podemos-syriza-victory-greek-elections">Syriza in Greece, Podemos in Spain</a>, <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/culture/observations/2016/01/could-portugal-give-new-hope-europes-warring-left">Bloco de Esquerda in Portugal</a> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/02/iceland-pirate-party-invited-form-government-coalition">Pirate Party in Iceland</a>. </p>
<p>None of these parties can be seen as the sole direct expression of the social movements that in recent years <a href="https://theconversation.com/polish-citizens-turn-their-back-on-ngos-and-embrace-community-activism-72537">have mobilised</a> against neoliberalism or authoritarian regimes. Still, the claims of these parties overlap strongly with the views and <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-hashtags-how-a-new-wave-of-digital-activists-is-changing-society-57502">forms of actions</a> of current popular movements, including France’s <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/are-frances-nuitdebout-protests-the-start-of-a-new-political-movement-57706">Nuit Debout</a></em> (roughly translated as the “standing up all night” movement).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166376/original/file-20170423-12658-y335xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166376/original/file-20170423-12658-y335xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166376/original/file-20170423-12658-y335xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166376/original/file-20170423-12658-y335xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166376/original/file-20170423-12658-y335xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166376/original/file-20170423-12658-y335xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166376/original/file-20170423-12658-y335xb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Catarina Martins, chairman of Portugal’s Bloco de Esquerda (‘Leftist Bloc’) party, in Rabo de Peixe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bloco_de_esquerda/29900041020/sizes/o/">Bloco/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="https://theconversation.com/ecuadors-populist-electoral-victory-for-moreno-shows-erosion-of-democracy-75157">Latin America</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-podemos-the-party-revolutionising-spanish-politics-33802">Southern Europe</a>, electoral earthquakes have happened when centre-left parties have embraced neoliberalism. The same thing happened with the French Socialist Party (PS), which once in power betrayed its own short-term and long-term promises. </p>
<p>Whatever the final results of the French presidential election, it points to the broad and deep discontent in Europe over increasing inequality and the widespread evidences of corruption of the political class. Across Europe, the far left has demonstrated a capacity to innovate and to empower progressive ideas, at a moment in which the centre-left is being bitterly punished for its neoliberal turn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Balveer Arora is Chairman Centre for Multilevel Federalism at the Institute of Social Sciences, New Delhi.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donatella Della Porta receives funding from European Council Research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Gómez Romero and Simon P. Watmough do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>France must now choose between two candidates with strongly opposing visions. The outcome of the May 7 run-off could radically alter France, as well as its position in Europe and in the world.Simon P. Watmough, Postdoctoral research associate, European University InstituteBalveer Arora, Emeritus professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University Donatella Della Porta, Dean, Institute of Human and Social sciences, Scuola Normale Superiore, Florence Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/762492017-04-18T14:35:15Z2017-04-18T14:35:15ZFrench election: where the candidates stand on foreign policy<p>The first round of the French presidential elections will take place on April 23. Foreign policy has traditionally played a central role during presidential campaigns, but this has not been the case this time around. This can partly be explained by the unusually high number of candidates (11 in total), the fact that what matters to the French today seems limited to what is happening within France, and the focus of the journalists on domestic issues. </p>
<p>So, what can be expected in terms of foreign policy from the four leading candidates from the extreme left to extreme right: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon, and Marine Le Pen?</p>
<h2>The European Union</h2>
<p>Europe has been one of the most debated foreign policy issues during this election campaign. A win for Macron, the centrist independent representing his En Marche! movement, would please europhiles, since he is by far the most pro-European candidate. As well as expressing his support for the survival of the EU, he even wants to expand its capacity. For instance, he proposes to further develop Europe’s defence capability by creating a European security council. It would be composed of “<a href="https://en-marche.fr/emmanuel-macron/le-programme/defense">military, diplomats, and intelligence experts</a>” and would advise the key European decision makers on defence related issues. </p>
<p>Mélenchon from the far-left France Insoumise party, and Le Pen of the Front National are both highly eurosceptic. Mélenchon wants to dramatically renegotiate the terms of the union and to leave if that process fails. Le Pen wants to take France out of the eurozone and to propose a referendum on a full “Frexit”.</p>
<p>Fillon, from the right wing Les Républicains is not as pro-Europe as Macron but remains committed to the regional organisation. However, he wants reforms to take place in order to address some of the perceived weaknesses of the EU, in particular in terms of security and the governance of the eurozone.</p>
<h2>Syria (and Russia)</h2>
<p>Apart from Le Pen, who does not explicitly mention Syria in her manifesto, the other three candidates have argued that France needs to be actively involved in resolving the conflict. But they take different views of what should happen to Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president.</p>
<p>Mélenchon’s position is not clear while Fillon’s has shifted: he used to tolerate Assad because the priority was to eradicate terrorism and the Syrian leader was seen as a tool to achieve this goal. In <a href="https://www.fillon2017.fr/projet/politique-etrangere/">his programme</a>, Fillon suggested that anyone fighting so-called Islamic State (IS), including – if necessary – the current regime, would be an ally of France in Syria. However, Fillon’s reaction to the regime’s recent chemical attack against civilians appears to suggest that this is no longer the case. In an <a href="https://www.franceinter.fr/emissions/geopolitique/geopolitique-06-avril-2017">interview after the attack</a>, he declared that he wanted to talk with the Russians and others in order to begin organising a political transition to put an end to the massacres. </p>
<p>Since the beginning of the conflict, Le Pen has supported the idea that Assad is <a href="http://fr.reuters.com/article/topNews/idFRKBN15Z1AF">“the only viable solution”</a> to the situation in Syria. She condemned the chemical attack, but <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/07/35003-20170407ARTFIG00069-le-fn-decu-par-donald-trump-apres-les-frappes-sur-la-syrie.php">refused to blame</a> Assad until a full international investigation could take place. She also criticised US president, Donald Trump, for authorising airstrikes before such an investigation could occur. </p>
<p>Macron adopts the middle ground. He doesn’t see Assad as being part of the future of Syria but is willing to work with him temporarily. This can be explained by the fact that his priority is to fight IS, but also because in his view, the “Assad must go” approach has put the UN Security Council in a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un-vote-idUSKBN17E2LK">state of stalemate</a> for too long. Even though he has consistently criticised the Syrian leader and has expressed his will to see him referred to the International Criminal Court, <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/06/35003-20170406ARTFIG00132-comment-les-pretendants-a-l-elysee-comptent-ils-gerer-le-dossier-syrien.php">he also explained after the chemical attack</a> that not all objectives could be achieved at once, therefore suggesting that Assad was here to stay in the immediate future.</p>
<p>The candidates also disagree on what Russia’s role should be in Syria. Mélenchon, Fillon and Le Pen all promote a central role for Russia and have even suggested that the EU sanctions established after the conflict in Ukraine should be lifted. Le Pen also undertook a very controversial visit to Russia to meet with Putin in March 2017, showing her ties with the Russian leader. </p>
<p>Macron deplores what he refers to as his adversaries’ fascination with Putin. He believes the Russian president is key to the conflict resolution, but also wants <a href="http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/ce-que-dit-melenchon-sur-la-syrie-n-est-pas-serieux-selon-macron-1139178.html">Russia to face its responsibilities</a>, in particular when it comes to pressuring the Syrian regime to put an end to the massacres. </p>
<h2>Security and migration</h2>
<p>The fight against terrorism remains a priority for all the candidates. In light of the recent attacks on French soil and neighbouring countries, this is a major concern for the French population. The main candidates have expressed their willingness to cooperate with any regime that is willing to take part in this fight (even, in some cases, controversial ones like Assad’s).</p>
<p>However, terrorism has mainly been discussed in terms of its domestic implications. Le Pen and Fillon want to strip people who hold dual nationality and are convicted of terrorism of their French nationality – an idea first mooted by the current government. They would also expel any nationals who have gone abroad to fight for terrorist organisations.</p>
<p>Mélenchon sees such an approach as <a href="http://melenchon.fr/2016/01/21/contributions-contre-la-decheance-de-nationalite/">“shameful”</a>. He suggests alternative options, such as the withdrawal of some civil rights (such as voting). Macron seems more indecisive and appears to suggest that it could be an option for people holding double nationality, but only in extreme cases.</p>
<p>Tied to this issue is the question of what to do about French national borders. As part of the Schengen area, there are no checks at the borders with European countries – a practice called into question every time a terrorist attack occurs on French soil.</p>
<p>Le Pen and Mélenchon both want to leave Schengen – although their reasons are not strictly limited to security concerns but are also linked to their vision of an independent and free France.</p>
<p>Macron though wants France to remain within Schengen, but suggests a reinforcement of <a href="http://frontex.europa.eu/">FRONTEX</a> (the European Border and Coast Guard Agency). Fillon goes a step further by arguing that although France needs to remain part of the shared space, the Schengen agreements need to be reformed in order to allow additional measures – such as targeted controls in areas which refugees and immigrants are known to use.</p>
<p>Even though foreign policy has been forgotten during this campaign, its implications will be major, not only for France, but for the rest of Europe and the international community. As such, it should hopefully – although, unlikely – play a more predominant role in the last few days of campaigning and during the two-week wait for the second round of voting for the two leading candidates on May 7.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Eglantine Staunton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Their policies on Syria, Russia, terrorism and the European Union.Dr Eglantine Staunton, Research fellow, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/758602017-04-07T01:56:40Z2017-04-07T01:56:40ZFrance’s presidential campaign pits a strategy of fear against one of opportunity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164371/original/image-20170407-16685-1o8vkp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It is still difficult to predict who will be the next French president.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With two weeks to go until the first round of the French presidential election, many people in France are stunned by the low quality of the campaign, which has been largely dominated by François Fillon’s <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/fillon-corruption-scandal_us_58c83a00e4b015d064bfa9eb">legal saga</a>. There has, to date, been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/08/france-right-wing-scandals-socialists-struggling-heard-hamon-melenchon">very little in-depth discussion</a> about actual policy.</p>
<p>Behind the judicial turmoils of some of the candidates, it is becoming increasingly clear that the campaign is about two significantly opposed visions of the future. One is declinist, supported by strategies of fear. The second is optimistic, promoting a strategy of opportunity.</p>
<h2>Optimism versus anxiety</h2>
<p>Three candidates claim they represent a majority of the French people, are haunted by a fear of French decline, and are deeply anxious about France’s role in an increasingly globalised world. </p>
<p>This approach of anxiety and threat perception is represented by Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidate for the far-left movement Unsubmissive France, and François Fillon, for the conservative Republicans.</p>
<p>But, there is also a very different strategy, developed by Benoît Hamon, the Socialist Party candidate, and Emmanuel Macron, leader of En Marche! What’s remarkable is that both candidates promote a far more optimistic vision of opportunities for a better life and a better France.</p>
<p>Far-left Mélenchon and far-right Le Pen are diametrically opposed in many respects. However, Le Pen and Mélenchon share four similar diagnoses of the economic, identity and societal insecurities France is facing.</p>
<p>First, both Mélenchon and Le Pen base their strategies on anti-EU policies. They claim France’s economic independence requires a withdrawal from the eurozone, from the European Union’s treaties, and even – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/24/european-far-right-hails-britains-brexit-vote-marine-le-pen">in Le Pen’s case</a> – an exit from the EU as a whole.</p>
<p>Second, both leaders adhere to significant anti-globalisation policies. Le Pen and Mélenchon claim France’s economic difficulties come from its openness to the global market. Their remedy is protectionist policies.</p>
<p>A third common approach in narrative is that both play on the rejection of traditional elites and present themselves as anti-system. </p>
<p>This has been successful as a populist strategy, even though both belong to the system they loudly condemn – a trait observers of Donald Trump will recognise. Le Pen’s family is extremely wealthy and deeply connected to France’s aristocracy. Mélenchon was a minister in a former Socialist government. </p>
<p>A final similarity is that both claim to genuinely defend the working class and advance similar social policies – notably, to <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/decryptage/2017/01/06/29002-20170106ARTFIG00177-retraite-a-60-ans-secu-integrale-le-programme-economique-de-jean-luc-melenchon.php">lower the pension age to 60</a>.</p>
<p>These similarities partly attract the <a href="https://www.franceculture.fr/politique/comment-le-front-national-capte-t-il-lelectorat-de-gauche">same electorate</a>: the working class and the less-educated sections of society that have not benefited from globalisation.</p>
<p>However, the far-left has been associated with policy failure because Mélenchon has been in government in the past. Thus the strategy of fear mainly reinforces Le Pen’s popularity, rather than Mélenchon’s. </p>
<p>The current graphic representation of the far-right electorate in France tends to be an overlay of the traditional map of the communist and far-left electorate until the 1990s, when the Communist Party lost its appeal. According to a poll carried out in early March, 48% of the French working class now <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/07/un-tiers-des-francais-se-disent-en-accord-avec-les-idees-du-front-national_5090202_4854003.html">supports Le Pen’s program</a>.</p>
<p>More broadly, both Le Pen and Mélenchon call for a return to an idealised – and historically inaccurate – past. </p>
<p>According to Le Pen, France’s salvation will come from going back to a traditional society that does not value any diversity, by <a href="http://www.leparisien.fr/elections/presidentielle/candidats-et-programmes/le-programme-de-marine-le-pen-pour-la-presidentielle-2017-13-02-2017-6677067.php">implementing strict assimilation policies</a>. For Mélenchon, the solution is a return to a protectionist economy that supports a strong working class.</p>
<h2>The less-extreme candidates</h2>
<p>Fillon is not as pessimistic as these extremes, although he does call for <a href="https://www.fillon2017.fr/projet/dette/">tough austerity measures</a> – such as reducing the numbers of public servants by 500,000. He argues the French must tighten their belts for the next five years to avoid a situation like Greece.</p>
<p>What then of the two youngest candidates in the presidential election, who have developed their strategies with a distinctly optimistic tone? </p>
<p>Macron and Hamon, whose programs are significantly different, share a discourse around the politics of opportunity. Both candidates promote a strategy of welcome and acceptance when it comes to immigration and refugees.</p>
<p>At a time of continued crisis in the EU, both promote a significant deepening of EU integration. Hamon is in favour of <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/09/benoit-hamon-veut-renforcer-la-zone-euro-pour-sauver-l-union-europeenne_5091770_4854003.html">strengthening the eurozone</a>. And Macron has made the development of a genuine <a href="https://en-marche.fr/emmanuel-macron/le-programme/europe">European army and diplomacy</a> a priority.</p>
<p>Macron seems to have found a successful strategy – at least for now. His centrist approach has become very popular; he’s <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/09/macron-devant-le-pen-qui-fait-peur-aux-francais_5091659_4854003.html">leading in the polls</a>. What’s more, many politicians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/22/french-elections-centrist-bayrou-offers-alliance-with-macron">from the left and the centre</a> have publicly supported Macron, as they calculate that En Marche! constitutes the most effective opposition to Le Pen. </p>
<p>However, Macron, like Hamon, struggles to convince many workers that a globalised economy offers benefits for them. Macron’s base is currently limited to the most-educated part of the population, which has been the main beneficiary of globalisation.</p>
<p>It is still difficult to predict who will be the next French president. The campaign has an increasingly populist dimension. All candidates have had to deal with a disaffection with established parties and political elites. </p>
<p>What’s clear is that the campaign has revealed narratives of two very distinctive Frances – one that perceives an ever-more globalised economy as a direct threat, and another that perceives challenges as opportunities. </p>
<p>After Brexit and Trump, will French voters put a halt to the declinist and populist wave sweeping other Western nations?</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was co-published with <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/">Pursuit</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75860/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Soyez is a non-active member of En Marche! </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philomena Murray does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Behind the judicial turmoils of some of the candidates, it is becoming increasingly clear that the French presidential campaign is about two significantly opposed visions of the future.Paul Soyez, PhD Candidate in International Relations, The University of MelbournePhilomena Murray, Professor, School of Social and Political Sciences and EU Centre on Shared Complex Challenges, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/739932017-03-22T10:51:04Z2017-03-22T10:51:04ZIn a bid to detoxify the far right, Marine Le Pen wants to appeal to French Jews<p>When Benoît Loeuillet, head of France’s right-wing Front National (FN) in Nice, was caught on camera denying the Holocaust in a documentary aired in mid-March, he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/15/benoit-loeuillet-france-front-national-holocaust-denial">was quickly suspended</a> from the party. </p>
<p>It was bad timing for the FN’s leader, Marine Le Pen, who is still considered the frontrunner in the first round of voting in the French presidential election on April 23. Her position, unthinkable a decade ago after the party’s near electoral wipe-out in elections in 2007 and 2008, is the fruit of a seemingly successful process of “dédiabolisation”, or detoxification, of the party’s brand. One of the pillars of this process has been her attempt to break with her father’s record of anti-Semitism and court voters from France’s Jewish electorate.</p>
<p>Dédiabolisation was the invention of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who founded the FN party in 1972. His goal was to revive a moribund and fractured far right, convinced that many people in France secretly supported its ideas, but were put off by its image. Le Pen wanted to attract different voters: supporters of France’s collaborationist and anti-Semitic Vichy regime, monarchists, conservative Catholics and those who were nostalgic for French Algeria.</p>
<h2>Out to detoxify</h2>
<p>At the end of the 1970s, Le Pen found the “winning formula” that gave his party the respectability he desired. He shifted focus from his previous obsession with the “Jewish-Communist threat” to channel mainly anti-Arab racism through the use of generic words such as “immigration” and “insecurity”. The FN was then able to appeal to racism while claiming to speak “common sense”.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, throughout the bumpy rise of the FN in the last few decades, Le Pen’s anti-Semitism often defined the way the public perceived the party – and he never failed to produce anti-Semitic “gaffes”. He asserted that gas chambers had <a href="http://www.ina.fr/video/CAB87032378">only been</a> a marginal “detail” in the history of World War II, for example. </p>
<p>Le Pen’s youngest daughter, Marine, took the idea of dédiabolisation more seriously. She kept her father’s strategy of channelling nationalistic, anti-Muslim sentiment, albeit with a polished, media savvy focus on eradicating any overt racism. She also sought to break with the party’s anti-Semitic record.</p>
<p>Even as Jean-Marie Le Pen was still in power, Marine Le Pen sought to clean up the party’s appearance and control her father’s toxic comments. She would meticulously scrutinise her father’s appearances on weekly videos the party posted directly to its website and remove any “provocations” about the Holocaust. </p>
<p>Taking over the party from him in 2011, she lost no time to distance herself from her father and <a href="http://www.lepoint.fr/politique/marine-le-pen-les-camps-nazis-summum-de-la-barbarie-03-02-2011-1291538_20.php">described</a> gas chambers as the “pinnacle of barbarity”. In 2015, as Le Pen senior, in an <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2015/04/07/jean-marie-le-pen-rivarol-gouvernes-immigres-niveaux_n_7018420.html?utm_hp_ref=front-nationa">interview</a> with the far right journal Rivarol, repeated his old line about concentration camps, his daughter dramatically <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/20/frances-national-front-party-expels-founder-jean-marie-le-pen">excluded him</a> from the party he had founded. </p>
<h2>An appeal to French Jews</h2>
<p>Yet Le Pen has also actively courted Jewish voters, some of whom feel abandoned by the French political left in the face of rising anti-Semitism. The Jewish community used to be aligned with established left-wing parties and institutions, but in recent decades has turned to the right. In 2007, Jews <a href="http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/765-1-document_file.pdf">voted heavily</a> for the right-of-centre Nicolas Sarkozy. </p>
<p>Aware of this shift, the FN has <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/france/2016/04/25/une-association-pour-promouvoir-le-fn-aupres-des-electeurs-juifs_1448528">cultivated</a> its Union of French Jewish Patriots, founded by Michel Thooris, a half-Jewish nationalist and “ultra-Zionist” supporter of Le Pen. </p>
<p>While the organisation remains small and has attracted no support of any notable members of France’s Jewish community, Le Pen has often <a href="http://droites-extremes.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/10/07/michel-thooris-le-fantasque-conseiller-police-de-marine-le-pen/">showcased</a> Thooris in an effort to demonstrate that she could not be considered personally anti-Semitic. In 2011, Thooris <a href="http://droites-extremes.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/12/14/en-voyage-en-israel-louis-aliot-est-alle-dans-deux-colonies/">accompanied</a> Le Pen’s partner Louis Aliot on a trip to Israel.</p>
<p>Le Pen has sought to actively exploit Jewish fears of the rise in Muslim anti-Semitism. In 2014, she summarised this approach in an interview with the weekly newspaper Valeurs Actuelles. She <a href="http://www.slate.fr/story/117395/fn-marine-le-pen-antisemitisme">said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I do not stop repeating to French Jews … that the Front National is not your enemy, but that it is without a doubt the best shield to protect you against the one true enemy, Islamic fundamentalism.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Ever since, the FN has brandished itself as the defender of Jewish “self-defence” against a “Muslim threat”. The party has become a staunch supporter of the hard-line taken by the Isareli government of Benjamin Netanyahu to portray itself as “pro-Israel” and simultaneously “anti-Islamist”. </p>
<p>Le Pen is also the only French politician who <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2014/08/02/pourquoi-marine-le-pen-prend-fait-et-cause-pour-la-ldj_4466082_823448.html">openly supports</a> the League of Jewish Defence (LDJ), a violent, right-wing French movement that the Israeli and US governments still consider a terrorist organisation, involved in inciting clashes with Muslim youths and pro-Palestinian activists. In so doing, the party has not only encouraged previously marginalised hard-line elements in France’s Jewish community. It has also exacerbated existing tensions in order to articulate an image of French Jews as an embattled community forgotten by the French “establishment”.</p>
<h2>Anti-Semitism runs deep</h2>
<p>Despite Le Pen’s attempts to “detoxify” the FN’s brand through tight control over what goes into the press, the party’s old penchant for anti-Semitism has continued to resurface. In particular, regional officials beyond the control of the party’s central press office often “blabber” on social media. Examples include Marie d’Herbais, FN candidate in Savigné-l’Evêque, who <a href="https://www.marianne.net/debattons/tribunes/au-fn-l-antisemitisme-continue">wrote</a> on her Facebook page that “Islam is the instrument of international Jewry”. </p>
<p>There is a vast cleavage between Le Pen and her party base, many of whom still perceive anti-Semitism to be part-and-parcel of the nativist idea of the French far right. For the identitaire current – those elements within the far right who see France as a white nation – that Le Pen seeks to attract, French Jews have never been and never will be truly French.</p>
<p>Ultimately, Le Pen’s concentrated appeal to French Jews is not about their electoral power. Even though France boasts Europe’s largest Jewish community, French Jews <a href="http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/765-1-document_file.pdf">make up</a> less than 1% of the general electorate and Le Pen’s growing success with small parts of it is a <a href="http://www.slate.fr/story/109031/electeurs-juifs-musulmans-front-national">drop</a> in the ocean.</p>
<p>For Le Pen, however, winning over more Jewish voters would deliver the final proof that her detoxification project had been a success. It would be a way to articulate her vision of “Judeo-Christian” France locked in a clash of civilisations against the Muslim world. For <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/02/09/35003-20170209ARTFIG00207-le-fn-suscite-toujours-le-malaise-des-institutions-juives.php">many Jews</a> this is frightening, not least as it uses them as pawns to rewrite French history. But it remains to be seen whether longstanding Jewish animosity to the Le Pen brand holds in a time of growing fear and insecurity within France.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73993/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Itay Lotem does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>France’s Front National party has tried to distance itself from anti-Semitism – with limited success.Itay Lotem, Post-doctoral Fellow in French Langauge and Culture, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/749502017-03-21T15:22:24Z2017-03-21T15:22:24ZLe Pen fails to land her punches in first TV debate of French presidential campaign<p>The French presidential election finally began, officially, on Saturday March 18. Laurent Fabius, president of the Constitutional Council, announced the 11 candidates who have received the requisite number of endorsements for their names to go forward. Two days later and the biggest names among those candidates met in the first of <a href="http://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/conseil-constitutionnel/francais/les-decisions/acces-par-date/decisions-depuis-1959/2017/2017-165-pdr/decision-n-2017-165-pdr-du-18-mars-2017.148827.html">three televised debates</a> – and it proved the biggest challenge for Front National candidate Marine Le Pen.</p>
<p>Although all the opinion polls point to her losing the second round of the election, Le Pen remains the clear favourite for the first round on April 23. And none of her four main rivals are taking it for granted that she will lose on May 7. The television debate offered her, then, the chance to strengthen her position in and hold on the campaign. In the end, the outcome was a disappointment for her. She may be ahead in the polls, but when it comes to rhetoric and oratory, she is up against four contestants who will not yield ground easily.</p>
<p>The decision (taken some while ago) to limit the debate to Le Pen, François Fillon, Benoît Hamon, Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon provoked annoyance among the other candidates. But, in practical terms, it allowed the main candidates to put down their markers before the next two debates – on April 4 and 20 – which will involve all 11. It’s only in the final two weeks of the campaign that the <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2017/03/20/temps-de-parole-des-candidats-le-csa-veille-au-respect-de-l-equite-et-de-l-egalite_5097674_823448.html">law requires</a> all candidates have equal TV and radio air time.</p>
<p>Pollsters have noticed a relatively low participation rate in this election so far. Only 65% of voters say they will definitely vote in the first round, as opposed to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17812595">the 80%</a> one would expect for a presidential election. And yet, the first debate drew an impressive average viewing figure of 9.8m, peaking at 11.5m. That’s not bad, considering that the debate started at nine in the evening and lasted three hours.</p>
<p>These debates are curious beasts. None of the candidates wants to commit a faux pas that will condemn them for the rest of the campaign and they have never appeared together as a group, so viewers didn’t know how the dynamics would work out.</p>
<p>Le Pen and Mélenchon have been here before (in 2012) and Hamon and Fillon have been through the process in the course of the primaries. Only Macron has no experience of this sort of debate, so it was something of a test of his mettle. The spotlight was also on him because he is, according to current polls, the candidate most likely to face Le Pen in the second round. In the end, he came out of it <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/france/2017/03/21/le-grand-debrief-du-grand-debat_1557186">reasonably well</a>.</p>
<p>Le Pen set the tone for her own approach from the outset, with an aggressive opening volley, declaring that, unlike the other candidates, she had no intention of being Angela Merkel’s vice-president in a European superstate. She continued in similar vein for the next three hours, painting a picture of a France stalked by lawless criminal bands and flooded with immigrants, seeking to consolidate her electorate rather than soften her tone in pursuit of floating voters.</p>
<p>This actually made it easier for her opponents, especially Macron, Hamon and Mélenchon to lay out their very different approaches to the key issues of education, law and order, and immigration. They suggested that she has overstated crime rates and insisted on France’s historical role as a country open to the persecuted and the refugee.</p>
<p>Fillon seemed less eager to present himself as the polar opposite of Le Pen. He didn’t go so far as to agree with her but sought to underline the tougher aspects of his own programme. He would, for example, amend the constitution to allow parliament to establish annual <a href="http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/presidentielle-le-grand-debat-francois-fillon-defend-les-quotas-d-immigration-7787750186">immigration quotas</a>. </p>
<p>On the question of secularism, there was broad consensus that the 1905 law of separation of church and state is not negotiable. But the centre and left candidates ridiculed Le Pen’s proposal to, basically, prohibit the wearing of clothes that express a religious belief from all public spaces. As Mélenchon put it: “Do you want to police what people choose to wear?” The question was rhetorical, but you suspect we could guess Le Pen’s answer.</p>
<p>For his part, Fillon was rather subdued in the early exchanges and only really found his form when the focus shifted to the economy and international relations. If he had hoped to use the debate to re-establish his credentials as the second-placed candidate and ahead of Macron, this was not a success. Aware that their man had failed to seize the opportunity, key supporters such as senate president Gérard Larcher, spent the following morning doing the rounds of the political radio talk shows, stressing that Fillon is the only candidate who can offer France a stable majority after June’s general election and that his are the only economic policies that add up.</p>
<p>Le Pen found herself confounded not just by Macron, but also by Mélenchon and Hamon, who proved good foils to one another, particularly on the question of immigration – and despite their divergence on the question of the EU. Deprived of the enthusiastic public that she is used to addressing in election meetings, Le Pen couldn’t seem to land her punches. She was up against four opponents who have no intention of letting her roll them over. At the same time, Macron appeared to do enough to hold the centre line and not lose too much ground to the candidates to his left and right. In that much at least he was probably the evening’s winner.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74950/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The official campaign to find the next president has begun. Are the cracks beginning to show already?Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/743182017-03-09T12:16:03Z2017-03-09T12:16:03ZHow François Fillon defied all odds to stay in the French presidential race<p>To paraphrase <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2017/03/07/la-tragi-comedie-de-la-droite_5090294_3232.html">Gérard Courtois</a>, editorial writer for Le Monde, if the French weren’t just a few weeks away from a presidential election that will decide the future of one of the world’s largest economic powers, this Punch and Judy show might be amusing. But they are and it isn’t.</p>
<p>By what outwardly looks like a small miracle, <a href="https://theconversation.com/french-election-2017-everything-you-need-to-know-about-francois-fillon-69576">François Fillon</a> is still the Republicans’ candidate for the French presidency. He continues to insist that <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillon-scandal-is-the-once-favourite-presidential-candidate-toast-72430">allegations</a> that he employed members of his family in fake jobs are not an obstacle to his candidacy. Indeed, when he revealed that he was to be formally questioned about the matter, he went on the counterattack, accusing the government of manipulating the judiciary to carry out a <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillons-coup-de-theatre-shocks-and-dismays-73877">“political assassination”</a>.</p>
<p>Attacking the left might be just politics but accusing the judiciary of bias is populism. Fillon’s statement therefore didn’t go down well with his more moderate supporters.</p>
<p>A steady stream of defections from his camp – including his official spokesman and his campaign organiser – became a flood. Calls for him to stand down in favour of Alain Juppé appeared almost irresistible. An opinion poll even had Juppé winning the first round of the election, ahead of Emmanuel Macron – thereby eliminating <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/05/35003-20170305ARTFIG00147-sondage-fillon-chute-juppe-se-qualifierait-au-second-tour.php">Marine Le Pen</a>. </p>
<p>It looked as if Fillon’s goose, if not cooked, had at least contracted avian flu. But he still held an important card in his hand: the unwavering support of the conservative, Catholic right. This group has no love for the more liberal, moderate Juppé. Just as he announced his intention to fight on, Fillon also announced a rally at the Place du Trocadéro – a square in the 16th arrondissement of Paris. </p>
<p>It later emerged that the mobilisation would be organised in collaboration with Sens Commun (meaning Common Sense, but also Shared Direction) – the political wing of the Manif pour Tous movement that emerged in opposition to the Hollande government’s legalisation of same-sex marriage.</p>
<h2>Rallying to their man</h2>
<p>Paris has a very clear political topography. The west belongs to the right, the east to the left, with the Louvre acting as a sort of dividing line. Thus, the Place de la Bastille is where the left celebrates its victories. And in the middle, the Place des Pyramides, with its golden statue of Joan of Arc, has been appropriated by the Front National.</p>
<p>The Place du Trocadéro, which offers the Eiffel Tower as a fine backdrop, was where Nicolas Sarkozy staged his last meeting before the second round of the 2012 election. It is also a square that can be divided in two so as to make the crowd there look much bigger than it really is. Fillon and what remained of his team asked supporters not to bring placards. Instead, they would supply tricolours. A tricolour waved in a Delacroix style fills much more space than a daubed piece of cardboard.</p>
<p>A large crowd did indeed turn out for the rally. Bruno Retailleau, the leader of the Republican group in the Senate, claimed they were 200,000 people there. That’s two-and-a-half times the capacity of the Stade de France. A more realistic estimate would be 40-50,000, but because of the way the crowd was shot (by Fillon’s team) it looked big enough. Critics might also say that if a right-wing candidate cannot organise a decent turn-out in the 16th, then they should probably give up. </p>
<p>In the end, the rally proved to be a tipping point. Fillon appeared on television later that evening to reiterate that he was staying in the race. Juppé’s moment had passed. The following morning, Juppé delivered a short but powerful <a href="http://www.sudouest.fr/2017/03/06/direct-video-alain-juppe-suivez-sa-conference-de-presse-3252552-625.php">speech</a> to confirm that he would not seek to replace Fillon. He did, though, have stern words for his rival: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>What a waste. In the wake of our primary, François Fillon, to whom I immediately and loyally gave my support, had an open path to the Elysée. But his system of defending himself [against the allegations] has led him down a blind alley.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Slowly but surely, in the days since, Fillon has put together a new team, in particular promoting <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/09/fillon-promeut-baroin-jacob-et-chatel-dans-son-equipe_5091900_4854003.html">Sarkozy supporters</a> to important positions. There has also been talk of a “ticket” whereby Fillon would formally adopt François Baroin as his future prime minister, if he is elected. Many of those who had called for him to stand down have returned to the fold. Even the centre-right Union of Democrats and Independents, which had suspended its support for Fillon, has rallied overwhelmingly to him once more. </p>
<p>Fillon’s victory comes at a price. He has played the Republicans’ right against its left and the electorate against the party notables. The party, so carefully welded together by Jacques Chirac, Jean-Pierre Raffarin and Juppé in 2002, is on the brink of imploding. Only victory on May 7 can save it.</p>
<p>Somewhere beneath the crushing weight of the Fillon Affair is an election campaign struggling to escape and a country trying to understand who is proposing what for the next five years. Meanwhile, various left-wing heavyweights have begun to rally to Macron. And in its March 8 edition, <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/07/un-tiers-des-francais-se-disent-en-accord-avec-les-idees-du-front-national_5090202_4854003.html?xtmc=valeurs_du_fn&xtcr=3">Le Monde announced</a> that one third of the French population agrees with the views of the far-right, although paradoxically, fewer voters find Marine Le Pen or her party appealing than in previous surveys. Nevertheless, a third of the votes will not win her the election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74318/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite a formal investigation into his financial dealings, the Republican candidate battles on.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/738862017-03-06T12:50:34Z2017-03-06T12:50:34ZEmmanuel Macron faces a really big problem if he becomes French president<p>Currently riding high in the polls, <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-party-and-not-much-policy-but-emmanuel-macron-is-still-on-a-roll-73775">Emmanuel Macron</a>, the self-styled “beyond left and right” candidate for the French election, has been tipped to become the next president in May.</p>
<p>But if he does, will he actually run the country? This question might sound odd but the nuances of the French political system put Macron in a spot of bother. The president derives their power from the support of a majority in the lower house of parliament, the National Assembly. Macron was a minister for the Socialist Party government but quit in 2016 to form his own political movement. Now he doesn’t even have a party, let alone a majority. </p>
<p>Although the constitution of the <a href="http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110810104916596">French Fifth Republic</a>, created by Charles De Gaulle in 1958, extended presidential powers, it did not enable the president to run the country.</p>
<p>There are only a few presidential powers that do not need the prime minister’s authorisation. The president can appoint a prime minister, dissolve the National Assembly, authorise a referendum and become a “temporary dictator” in exceptional circumstances imperilling the nation. They can also appoint three judges to the Constitutional Council and refer any law to this body. While all important tasks, this does not, by any stretch of the imagination, amount to running a country. The president can’t suggest laws, pass them through parliament and then implement them without the prime minister. </p>
<h2>President and parliament</h2>
<p>The role of a president is best defined as a “referee”. Presidential powers give the ability to oversee operations and act when the smooth running of institutions is impeded. So a president is able to step in if a grave situation arises or to unlock a standoff between the prime minister and parliament, such as by announcing a referendum on a disputed issue or by dismissing the National Assembly.</p>
<p>So, why does everyone see the president as the key figure? In a nutshell, it’s because the constitution has never been truly applied. There lies the devilish beauty of French politics. A country known since the 1789 revolution for its inability to foster strong majorities in parliament has succeeded, from 1962, in providing solid majorities. </p>
<p>When those majorities are from the president’s party, they hold all the cards. The president moves from a mere referee to an all-powerful figure. The introduction of direct election of presidents in 1962 led political parties to undergo a presidentialisation process. The ultimate aim of any party became to win the next presidential election and provide support for their candidate once elected. Any prime minister faced with a presidential majority therefore knows that they simply cannot oppose the president without risking being dismissed by a parliamentary majority that is loyal to the president. Parliamentarians will be aware that the president’s victory will have helped secure their own success in the National Assembly elections.</p>
<p>Sometimes the parliamentary majority is opposed to the president, in which case, a system of “cohabitation” kicks in – and the true weakness of the presidential mandate is exposed. The prime minister represents a different party to the president and can implement their programme without having to follow any presidential directives, safe in the knowledge that the majority supports them.</p>
<p>In these cases, the president truly lacks power. In cohabitation periods, the president reverts to the powers granted by the constitution and cannot run the country. This is a possible scenario for Macron. He might win the election but find the majority of MPs are against him. The most likely outcome would be a victory for the right-wing Les Républicains or even a coalition of parties against him. </p>
<p>However, another and perhaps more likely scenario is that the parliament will have no majority at all and Macron will have to somehow manufacture one.</p>
<h2>Macron’s problem</h2>
<p>This is all bad news for Macron, who does not have a party apparatus behind him. His movement, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9e101508-fc46-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0d">En Marche</a>, is not a political party. It does not have established local branches nor any seats in parliament. Nor does it have the experience and logistics to campaign for the 577 seats on offer in the June parliamentary elections. Even with an established party, transforming a good score at a presidential election to parliamentary seats is difficult.</p>
<p>The Centrist François Bayrou – who has incidentally just joined forces with Macron – is a good example of this problem. Bayrou won 19% in the first round of the 2007 presidential election but his party still only managed to win three seats in parliament one month later.</p>
<p>How is Macron going to reach a majority of seats without a strong party? It’s possible that he will rally the centre right and the centre left, and maybe negotiate support from the Socialist Party in a coalition – although it’s hard to see the left wing of the party agreeing to it.</p>
<p>Even if he did manage to manufacture a majority from sympathetic parliamentarians, he might not always be able to rely on their support. Stalin once famously asked of the Pope: “How many divisions has he got?” The same could be asked of Macron.</p>
<p>Other candidates may face a similar issue to Macron – one of which is Marine Le Pen, since her party, the Front National, is unlikely to win more than a handful of seats in the parliamentary election. But at least she has a party.</p>
<p>Or perhaps Macron proposes to be truly radical in his presidency. Perhaps he has decided to restore the jilted constitution to its former glory and become the referee a president was always supposed to be. That would certainly give a final twist to a presidential campaign already full of surprises.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73886/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ariane Bogain is affiliated with UCU trade-union. She is a member of the NEC.</span></em></p>In France, a president has no real power without a parliamentary majority. And Macron doesn’t even have a party.Ariane Bogain, Senior Lecturer in French and Politics, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/738772017-03-01T15:34:48Z2017-03-01T15:34:48ZFrançois Fillon’s coup de théâtre shocks and dismays<p>For much of the morning of March 1, the French media was buzzing with the news that François Fillon might be about to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/01/francois-fillon-sparks-speculation-with-last-minute-farm-fair-pullout">drop out</a> of the 2017 presidential race. The rumours started flying the moment it was revealed, a little before 8am, that Fillon was postponing his trip to the Salon de l’Agriculture event in Paris, and would instead be holding a press conference at his campaign HQ. The announcement could not have been more last minute. Members of Fillon’s own team, <a href="http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/francois-fillon/video-quand-l-equipe-de-fillon-decouvre-en-direct-le-report-de-sa-visite-au-salon-de-l-agriculture_2076207.html#xtatc=INT-5">waiting outside the exhibition centre</a>, only found out by phone.</p>
<p>While a photo opportunity with a cow might not be everyone’s idea of the dream selfie, in France, where farming is such a central part of cultural identity, it is unthinkable that a candidate with serious presidential aspirations would stand up the Salon de l’Agriculture. Marine Le Pen attended the day before and Emmanuel Macron was due to arrive just a little after Fillon.</p>
<p>The buzz was further fuelled by the sight of various party heavyweights coming and going from Fillon’s HQ. At one point, it was said that Fillon had spoken at length with former rivals Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy. This prompted speculation that one of them – probably Juppé – would be stepping in to replace him.</p>
<p>Then, as the nation looked on, holding its collective breath, Fillon stepped up to the podium to announce that no, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/01/francois-fillon-faces-formal-investigation-over-fake-jobs-allegations">he would not be standing down</a>. He would battle on, despite the allegations of <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillon-scandal-is-the-once-favourite-presidential-candidate-toast-72430">corruption</a> that continue to dog his candidacy. It had all been a coup de théâtre.</p>
<h2>Sticking it out</h2>
<p>Despite Fillon’s previous tough talk and the continued outward support of the party leadership, the Republican grassroots have remained uneasy. At the weekends, when members of the French parliament have been out in their constituencies, they’ve been getting it in the neck. Why were they allowing this candidate to continue, when the stakes are so high? This is an election the right’s supporters cannot bear to lose … and are about to. </p>
<p>Some local party dignitaries have suddenly been finding that they haven’t space in their diaries to host a campaign meeting – as happened in Limoges, for example, where the right won in the 2014 municipal elections, after more than a century of left-wing administration.</p>
<p>One way or another, it has been very difficult for Fillon’s campaign to get out of first gear in this race. He hasn’t been helped by left-wing agitators turning up at his meetings and <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/02/14/35003-20170214ARTFIG00160-fillon-prive-de-meeting-a-limoges-celui-de-clermont-ferrand-repousse.php">banging saucepans</a> – a reference to the French expression “traîner des casseroles”, meaning to have dirty linen.</p>
<p>Authorities continue to investigate whether Fillon’s wife Penelope actually did the job she was being paid to do by her husband over a number of years. The Fillons have now been summoned to attend preliminary hearings on March 15 and 18, which could then lead to them being indicted. This is embarrassing enough in its own right, but the date is critical, because the March 17 marks the closing date for the Constitutional Council to receive the <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-party-and-not-much-policy-but-emmanuel-macron-is-still-on-a-roll-73775">500 signatures</a> candidates require to be ratified.</p>
<p>Rumour of the dates had made it to the mainstream press by mid-morning, but were only confirmed by Fillon himself when he finally appeared before the press at a little after 12.30. Fillon has maintained, since the story broke in Le Canard enchaîné in late January, that, while employing his wife (and children) as assistants may have been an error of judgement on his part, he has done nothing illegal and that the work was done.</p>
<h2>I’ve been stitched up!</h2>
<p>For Fillon, the whole process has been orchestrated by the Socialist government. He claims it is manipulating the judiciary to undermine his candidature. If the opinion polls are anything to go by (and we may have our doubts about them), Fillon will be eliminated in the first round, with Le Pen and Macron going into the run off.</p>
<p>Herein lay the core of Fillon’s message. The decision to proceed with the case, as he put it during the press conference, is to set up a contest between the far right and “a continuation of Hollandisme”. This he refuses to countenance. Only the electorate can decide an election and he intends to fight on, with “the support of my family, the support of my political family and in the name of four million right-wing voters” who participated in the primary.</p>
<p>Looked at one way, then, the decision to postpone his visit to the Salon might have been a simple expedient to avoid news of the dates of the hearing breaking while he was in no position to respond to them. But looked at from another angle, given the feverish activity at his HQ, it could well have been yet another poorly managed attempt to shake out any doubters, a ridiculous game of stare out. </p>
<p>As it is, the press conference has led to Fillon losing Bruno Le Maire, his foreign affairs spokesman, on the grounds that despite promises that if he were indicted he would step down, Fillon has gone back on his word. According to some sources, Le Maire was the only voice calling for Fillon to stand down in favour of Juppé. And later today, the Union des Démocrates et Indépendants, Les Républicains’ centre-right allies, will decide if they will continue to support Fillon. </p>
<p>If it was nothing more than an attempt to put himself back in the spotlight, then it worked, for a few hours at least. And at least it meant Fillon didn’t have to bump into Macron across a cow’s rear quarters. (Fillon later announced he would go to the show in the afternoon.)</p>
<p>Fillon has made it clear that his candidature is not negotiable and that he intends to fight on till the end. It could well be a bitter one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73877/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When the presidential candidate pulled out of an important photo opportunity, everyone thought he was quitting the race.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/737752017-02-28T14:32:16Z2017-02-28T14:32:16ZNo party and not much policy, but Emmanuel Macron is still on a roll<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158689/original/image-20170228-29933-1w3rgu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Still a bit of a mystery, but an appealing one. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Facundo Arrizabalaga</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The French presidential election has slipped, almost imperceptibly, into a new phase. Saturday February 25 marked the opening of the process for gathering signatures from local élus (municipal, departmental and regional councillors, but also deputies and senators) for candidates.</p>
<p>To be eligible to stand, a candidate must gather 500 signatures, which are vetted by the Constitutional Council. But there’s a twist. The signatures have to come from 30% of the national territory – so you can’t just go and love bomb one area to get your 500 supporters. Candidates have until March 17 to get their signatures. A few days after that, the formal list of candidates will be published.</p>
<p>It’s usually at this point in the campaign, too, that Marine Le Pen (like her father before her) complains that she is struggling for signatures because the parties of “the system” lean on local councillors. In the end, of course, the Le Pens have always obtained their signatures, as we always knew they would. It’s just another opportunity for the Front National to cast itself as the victim.</p>
<p>This time round, though, Le Pen is claiming that she is the victim of a different campaign by “le pouvoir” (the government and the EU) to undermine her (and by extension the French people for whom she claims to speak), by investigating her alleged misuse of European and national funds to cover party expenses. <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/02/06/marine-le-pen-et-emmanuel-macron-se-choisissent-mutuellement-comme-adversaires_5075014_4854003.html">Speaking before a crowd</a> of 3,000 more or less delirious fans in Nantes recently, Le Pen described this as part of a plot by “the system” to help one particular candidate: Emmanuel Macron.</p>
<h2>Outsider or insider?</h2>
<p>This backhanded compliment to Macron is obviously based on his performance in the opinion polls. But in one aspect at least, Le Pen’s analysis is accurate. Macron is by no means an outsider. Christiane Taubira, François Hollande’s former justice minister <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/02/01/christiane-taubira-etrille-emmanuel-macron-un-pur-produit-du-systeme_5072581_4854003.html">described him</a> as a “pur produit du système”.</p>
<p>Macron graduated from the elite Ecole Nationale de l’Adminstration in 2004. Depending on where they place in their cohort, graduates can choose which branch of the civil service they go into, and Macron was in a position to opt for the most prestigious – the Inspection Générale des Finances. Just four years later, however, he bought himself out of his commitment to the state and went to work for Rothschilds. In 2012 he was recommended to Hollande for his Elysée team by “Les Gracques”, a group of centre-left intellectuals, high-ranking civil servants and economists, who take their name from the Gracchi, the Robin Hood brothers of the Roman Republic. Then, in 2014, Hollande moved Macron from the Elysée to the finance ministry.</p>
<p>In France, it is by no means unusual for talented civil servants to be moved sideways into ministerial posts. Macron may not be tied to a party at the moment, but his ascension has nonetheless followed one of the classic paths. Nevertheless, it is this lack of a party that might yet prove to be the weak link in his candidature.</p>
<p>Visiting the headquarters of Macron’s En Marche movement, journalist Nathalie Funès <a href="http://www.pressreader.com/france/lobs/20170216/281956017540424">described it</a> as being like “an over-heated start-up”.</p>
<p>The staff, like the 39-year-old candidate, are mainly young (average age 31) and while this is not necessarily a bad thing, there is a lack of experience on the ground. It’s one thing to pack arenas from Lyon to Lille to London with thousands of admiring fans, but it will be quite another, over the next few weeks, to get out into France’s weekend markets.</p>
<p>What might also hamper Macron is his refusal to accept a political label. He has used the expression “neither right nor left”, but that carries an echo of the far right in pre-war France. The term “centre” isn’t altogether helpful, either. Historically, the centrists were the old Christian democratic party and the term “progressiste”, which is also applied to Macron, was another shorthand for moderate reformists. And, again historically, these parties sided with the right.</p>
<p>Macron’s political meaning, then, remains elusive. We are still waiting for his portentously titled ten-point “contract with the nation”, but in a recent media interview he did provide an outline of his plans for the economy. These involved tax reforms to encourage savers to invest in stocks and shares, and reducing the numbers of state employees (though nothing like Fillon’s promised 500,000 job cuts).</p>
<h2>Creeping up the ranking</h2>
<p>Of all the candidates, Macron looks to be the only one using realistic projections of economic growth of less than 2% a year. Perhaps most surprisingly, he also committed himself to bringing the welfare system under state control. Until now, it has been managed by a consortium of unions and employers, but Macron has been highly critical of their inability to reduce the deficit in the system.</p>
<p>It’s not exactly a headline grabbing programme. It is a measured and highly technocratic plan. The headline grabbing is going on elsewhere, with Macron asserting that there is no single French culture but many cultures of France – an approach deliberately intended to get under the skin of Le Pen and Fillon, who are leaning towards nationalist visions of French culture in their campaign promises.</p>
<p>And then there was Macron’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/emmanuel-macron-the-french-presidency-and-a-colonial-controversy-73396">denunciation of colonialism</a> as a “crime against humanity”. What surprised me is that 52% of French people question by IFOP approved of the statement, including 35% of those who claim to be FN supporters (though only 20% of Fillon’s).</p>
<p>While a section of the left-wing electorate, especially Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s, might struggle with Macron’s determination to see the EU and globalisation as vehicles for strengthening the French economy, they may be willing to support a president determined to reconcile France and Algeria and to accept that the “mission civilisatrice” – as French colonialism is described – was not always civilised.</p>
<p>But the real boost, announced in an <a href="http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-presidentielle-Macron-talonne-Le-Pen-1199456">opinion poll</a> on February 27, is that the 5% of the electorate who originally said they would support centrist candidate François Bayrou has swung wholesale behind Macron, putting him just a point and a half behind Le Pen. Game on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73775/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>He’s got Le Pen rattled at an important phase in the election campaign, even without a manifesto.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/733012017-02-20T14:49:02Z2017-02-20T14:49:02ZWhy winning the French presidential election could be a poisoned chalice<p>The 2017 presidential election won’t be the first time the French have looked out across the political landscape and seen a fractured field. In 2002, there were no fewer than 16 candidates standing in the first round of the presidential election. Back then, the field was so fractured that the Socialist prime minister <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1970421.stm">Lionel Jospin</a> was eliminated from the contest. Voters were then left with a choice between the sitting, right-wing president, Jacques Chirac, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the far right Front National (FN).</p>
<p>Of course, Chirac proceeded to <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1969902.stm">crush Le Pen</a>, 82% to 18%, in the run-off. In the process, he forced the three competing parties of the right and centre right into an electoral alliance, then a single party, the UMP, which later became the Republicans.</p>
<p>The 2002 election is regarded as a turning point in the political history of the <a href="http://www.popularsocialscience.com/2013/10/08/the-french-fifth-republic-against-all-odds/">Fifth Republic</a> (the regime created by Charles de Gaulle in 1958). Not only was the outcome unexpected, but it was the first in which the president was elected for a new five-year term (reduced from seven) shortly before elections to the lower house, the National Assembly.</p>
<p>Initially, this was a simple coincidence of the electoral calendar but it now means the French are summoned, barely a month after electing a new president, to provide him or her with a majority in the assembly. One entirely predictable consequence of this has been the relegation of national assembly elections to almost secondary status and high rates of abstention among those who didn’t vote for the new head of state.</p>
<p>It’s worth knowing this detail, because while the main focus currently is on the 2017 presidential candidates and their programmes, rallies and public utterances, and the who was paying whom and for what, behind the scenes there are also feverish negotiations going on over who will stand in the 577 constituencies in June’s assembly election. In a system where political parties are weak and prone to fragmentation, the value of the support of a potentially victorious presidential candidate is a powerful lever.</p>
<p>By the same token, experience suggests that defeated presidential candidates do not make good rallying points for their parties when the parliamentary vote rolls around. Even <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/marine-le-pen-2938">Marine Le Pen</a> could only turn her 17% of the vote in the 2012 presidential election into two seats in the assembly – neither of them for her. Le Pen’s success between then and now has come through the intervening local and European elections – and these have been as much about rejecting Hollandisme as they are an endorsement of her.</p>
<p>So far, there are five main presidential candidates in the 2017 race. They are, from left to right, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-hologram-a-family-scandal-and-a-man-on-the-march-the-french-election-just-got-really-exciting-72605">Jean-Luc Mélenchon</a> (heading a movement called La France insoumise), Benoît Hamon (for the Socialists), <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/emmanuel-macron-33770">Emmanuel Macron</a> (who has established his own movement called En Marche!), François Fillon (for the Republicans), and Le Pen (for the Front National/Rassemblement Bleu Marine).</p>
<h2>The left</h2>
<p>The ecologist Yannick Jadot may or may not run. Last week, his electors authorised him to negotiate a joint platform with Hamon and Mélenchon, which would, in due course, also cover the matter of an alliance for the general election. Hamon is receptive, but Mélenchon is not and, to be honest, never has been. Mélenchon left the Socialists in 2008, objecting to its drift towards social democracy. His singular goal, ever since, has been to destroy the party and recreate a new left under his leadership.</p>
<p>The Socialist party is straining to hold itself together. Party secretary Jean-Christophe Cambadélis has warned that anyone defecting to support Macron in the election will be expelled, and thus forfeit support if they plan to stand in the general election. Those with a strong local power base will see that as a risk they can take in the interests of backing a candidate more likely to win – but not all will.</p>
<p>The Socialist position might change, of course, if Macron is elected to the Elysée and Hamon does not get a creditable score (at least 16%) in the first round. Even though he is the party candidate, he is not its leader and if Macron made the right noises, a broad centre and left electoral alliance is not out of the question.</p>
<p>Another possibility would be a simple form of what is known as “désistement républicain”, whereby the parties of the left (though not Mélenchon) and Macronistes agree to stand down for whichever of them is better placed in a particular constituency. The circle that Macron has to square is that while he might get elected by himself, he cannot govern alone and no-one can predict how his pop-up party will fare amid the rough and tumble of a general election campaign.</p>
<h2>The right</h2>
<p>To Macron’s right, the Republican party has flipped around completely. One of the explanations for Fillon’s unexpected victory in the primary was that he paid attention to the party’s grassroots. While Nicolas Sarkozy controlled the hierarchy, his former PM focused on getting out into the provinces and holding small-scale meetings with the the rank and file. But it is precisely here that unease is strongest now.</p>
<p>While Fillon has announced his determination to fight on, even if the <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillon-scandal-is-the-once-favourite-presidential-candidate-toast-72430">formal investigation into his financial conduct</a> continues, and the party’s heavyweights have voiced solidarity, there is real concern in the constituencies that Fillon will not deliver the “alternance” (a change of majority) they expect and demand. For the Gaullist core of a movement that sees itself as the natural party of government, the prospect of five more years out of power is almost unbearable. If Fillon is eliminated, who will pick up the pieces? The failure to answer that question adequately after Sarkozy’s defeat in 2012 is just one of the reasons for Le Pen’s rise and rise.</p>
<p>And yet, while the Front National can make a pretty strong claim to be “le premier parti de France”, its position is not as strong as it might be. Despite winning 25% of the national vote in the European elections of 2014, the same in departmental elections, and 28% in the regionals in late 2015, the FN remains a leadership without much structure, few candidates and desperately short of funds. The party has more local councillors than ever before, but membership remains low. The FN is being very coy about just how many candidates it thinks it can field.</p>
<p>It is almost impossible to imagine a president elected without a majority in the assembly. It’s just as hard to imagine any other party being willing to join the FN in a coalition.</p>
<p>While a Le Pen victory in May might fit the Brexit/Trump zeitgeist, Le Pen might actually be better off losing the 2017 election. She could spend five years building a parliamentary base, which also comes with state funding on a per seat basis, and mount a challenge in 2022. If she makes the run-off and then fails to take 40% of the votes, on the other hand, it’s perfectly possible that she’ll be booted out as leader of her party.</p>
<p>However it turns out, the election to the fourth five-year presidential term risks pushing France ever deeper into an institutional turmoil than its instigators could never have imagined when they stood on the cusp of the Fifth-and-a-half Republic back in 2002. It was all supposed to be so simple.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just a month after moving into the Élysée Palace, the new president will face the country’s parliamentary elections.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/729102017-02-13T16:06:33Z2017-02-13T16:06:33ZWhat Marine Le Pen’s 144-point presidential plan for France actually says<p>Far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s has issued a <a href="http://www.frontnational.com/le-projet-de-marine-le-pen">144-point manifesto</a> on her ambitions for government, pledging to make France “free, safe, prosperous, fair, proud, powerful, and sustainable”.</p>
<p>Not many people will have the inclination to read the lot, but I did. And what I discovered was a candidate who plans not so much to take France out of Europe as cut it free of the whole continent.</p>
<p>The key themes of the weighty manifesto are for France to leave both the eurozone and the EU and to prioritise national interests over global forces. Le Pen wants to lead a strong, interventionist and muscular state and to reduce immigration to virtually zero. Along the way, she wants to combat multiculturalism and reinforce secularism, to the point of banning outwards signs of religious belief in all public spaces, as one of the antidotes to fundamentalist Islam.</p>
<h2>Frexit</h2>
<p>The very first promise in Le Pen’s manifesto is a “Frexit” referendum on the country’s membership of the European Union, and major institutional reform. She envisages a recentralised, presidential regime, where a reform of Article 11 of the constitution would give the president much greater scope to consult the electorate directly, by referendum and without referral to parliament. </p>
<p>President Le Pen would also dramatically reduce the size of the French parliament and jettison 30 years of local government reform and devolution to abolish France’s regions. The French can also look forward to a law whereby their personal data would be forcibly repatriated to servers based in France (digital patriotism?) and to closer state oversight of trades unions, among other measures to guarantee their freedom.</p>
<h2>Heavy hand of the law</h2>
<p>To make France safer, Le Pen intends to recruit 15,000 law enforcement officers and to establish a presumption of legitimate defence for the police. This may not mean much in practice but is clearly intended to let the police know that they can expect support, at least in the first instance, from the state in cases of, for example, brutality. </p>
<p>There will be tougher sentencing and 40,000 extra prison places created, but Le Pen has rowed back from <a href="http://europe.newsweek.com/marine-le-pen-calls-bring-back-death-penalty-after-paris-shooting-297742?rm=eu">her advocacy</a> of the death penalty, preferring full life sentences.</p>
<p>The safety of the French is, naturally for Le Pen, linked to France taking back control of its borders (exiting the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen_en">Schengen area</a>) and bringing “rampant immigration” to an end. Le Pen aims to recruit an extra 6,000 frontier police and reduce net migration from 140,000 people per year to just 10,000.</p>
<p>A whole raft of measures will make it more difficult for immigrants to be naturalised or to bring their families to France (Le Pen underplays how difficult it already is) and asylum seekers will have to make their applications at French embassies and consuls outside France. The fight against Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism will be ramped up, with the creation of a new anti-terrorist agency.</p>
<h2>‘Intelligent protectionism’</h2>
<p>France’s prosperity, Le Pen argues, depends on ending globalisation and replacing free trade with “a new patriotic model” of “intelligent protectionism” that will radically reduce unemployment.</p>
<p>Globalisation will be tackled with state-led re-industrialisation. Expanding on the document, Le Pen has explained that she would, for example, use tariffs of up to 35% to force French motor manufacturers to bring construction back into France – an idea very obviously borrowed from Donald Trump.</p>
<p>To help French industry and agriculture, the doctrine of national preference will be written into the constitution. So French workers will be favoured in the job market and French companies in tendering for public contracts.</p>
<h2>Family life</h2>
<p>To obviate the need for migrant labour, the state will pursue a policy of promoting the birth rate among French families and help to reduce the cost of living with special allowances for low-income families. With no cheap supply of migrant labour and French industries repatriated and protected, the virtuous circle, as Le Pen describes it, will be complete. By the same token, to help rescue the French health system, the number of students admitted to study medicine will be increased “to avoid the massive recruitment of foreign doctors”.</p>
<p>Le Pen will outlaw surrogacy and same-sex marriages will be abolished (although this will not be retroactive). There is no mention, however, of reforming the law on abortion.</p>
<h2>French pride</h2>
<p>To restore French prestige, the military will take on 50,000 new recruits and the defence budget will be significantly increased. Most importantly, France will leave <a href="https://www.rt.com/news/371611-frexit-le-pen-promises-nato/">NATO</a>.</p>
<p>The requirement to protect France’s cultural and historical heritage will be written into the constitution. Furthermore, the “national story”, an official version of French history, will be reintroduced into schools and the politics of historical apology will be abandoned. The state will promote French influence throughout the world, in military, cultural and diplomatic terms (which, of course, already happens anyway).</p>
<h2>A nationalist shade of green</h2>
<p>Under the heading of sustainability, Le Pen focuses on replacing the EU’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-eu-common-agricultural-policy-56329">common agricultural policy</a> with a French version and encouraging local chains of supply and consumption as a practical form of environmentalism. To address France’s massive power generation deficit, she intends to keep nuclear reactors and boost renewables, but not wind power.</p>
<p>The cost will be partly met by a return to productivity and lower unemployment but also, as has Le Pen explained, by ending benefit fraud and tax evasion by multinational companies.</p>
<h2>The candidate</h2>
<p>On the face of it, there are not many surprises in Le Pen’s programme. That her vision for the future of France involves pulling down the shutters is not a scoop. Students of far-right movements in other countries might be surprised, however, at just how much “big government” will be involved in her policies. But this is France, and the state remains a key player.</p>
<p>What stands out are the far-reaching implications of Le Pen’s programme for the political institutions that will to move the Republic away from the devolved partnership between president, parliament and local government. It has been evolving towards this model over the past two decades but Le Pen would bring that project to an abrupt halt. This element of Le Pen’s planning has been little discussed among international onlookers, who have tended to focus on immigration, law and order, Europe and the economy.</p>
<p>Le Pen may well be disappointed, however, that launching her programme hasn’t given her much of a poll boost. Despite her opus, she continues to hover around the 25-26% mark regarding intentions to vote in the first round of the presidential elections.</p>
<p>For now, most of the polls put Le Pen in the lead after the first round of voting, but then losing in the second to Emmanuel Macron (by something like 60% to 40%), or to <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillon-scandal-is-the-once-favourite-presidential-candidate-toast-72430">François Fillon</a>, if he stages some sort of recovery. The latter is not beyond the realms of possibility.</p>
<p>It is said of the French presidential election that in the first round, you vote for the candidate you want, in the second, you vote against the one you don’t. Le Pen will probably be in the second round. But she still needs to persuade a very large portion of the electorate that she is not the candidate they do not want.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The far-right candidate has published a 144-point plan for her proposed presidency.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/723312017-02-10T10:30:34Z2017-02-10T10:30:34ZEmmanuel Macron and Twitter: how France’s leading presidential candidate is building a narrative<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155241/original/image-20170201-29893-1uazhlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Emmanuel Macron on a visit to Lebanon, in January 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joseph Eid / AFP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With France now in the full swing of its presidential campaign, the importance for each politician to have a compelling narrative has never been clearer. </p>
<p>This is particularly true for Emmanuel Macron, the former finance minister who heads up his own political movement, called “En Marche!” (Forward!). He was the leading vote-getter of the first round on April 23, <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/live/2017/04/23/presidentielle-2017-resultats-analyses-reactions-suivez-la-soiree-du-premier-tour-en-direct_5115904_4854003.html">obtaining approximately 24% of the vote</a>. Despite running outside country’s two mainstream political parties, he outdistanced extreme-right populist Marine Le Pen (about 22%), former prime minister Francois Fillon (20%), left-wing outsider Jean-Luc Mélenchon (19%) and Socialist Party candidate Benoît Hamon (6%). </p>
<p>While Macron served in the Socialist government of outgoing president François Hollande, he was never a member of the party, nor of the opposing Républicains. His <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/30/frances-economy-minister-emmanuel-macron-resigns">August 2016 resignation</a> sparked rumours of a presidential bid, and he finally <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/16/emmanuel-macron-outsider-bid-french-presidential-race-election">declared his candidacy in November</a>. He has worked to build his a candidacy around stories rather than ideas, and the first-round results validate his approach, </p>
<p>The concept found its way to France by way of a 2007 book by Christian Salmon, <a href="http://www.editionsladecouverte.fr/catalogue/index-Storytelling-9782707156518.html">“Storytelling: The Machine for Creating Ideas and Forming Minds”</a> and subsequently spread to political commentators. While the borrowed-from-English term “storytelling” is sometimes used here to describe routine political communications, the importance for candidates to create a narrative was understood, and Macron has taken the lesson to heart. </p>
<p>Macron has been called a <a href="https://theconversation.com/emmanuel-macron-le-candidat-attrape-tout-71751">“catch-all candidate”</a> but it’s one thing to attract interest from across the political spectrum and another to win France’s highest office. What’s required is a communications narrative that brings it all together, and Macron has been working assiduously to build one. </p>
<h2>We and us</h2>
<p>To better understand narratives within the shifting range of political campaigns in France – from actions taken before candidacies are even declared into the primaries themselves and beyond – our research team developed a Twitter analysis methodology as part of the project <a href="http://ideo2017.ensea.fr/">#Idéo2017</a>. In particular, we used the software program <a href="http://tropes.fr/">Tropes</a>, which allows us to describe the style of a body of text – or tweets, in this case.</p>
<p>Our work focused on 500 tweets published by Emmanuel Macron’s account (<a href="https://twitter.com/emmanuelmacron">@EmmanuelMacron</a>) up to January 20, 2016. Summed up, the results are:</p>
<ul>
<li>Narrative: the tweets tell a story at a particular moment in time and in a specific place</li>
</ul>
<p>Digging deeper into the tweets, the word “we” is particularly present. A comparison with the tweets from the account of François Fillon (<a href="https://twitter.com/FrancoisFillon">@francoisfillon</a>, candidate of the centre-righ Les Républicains, highlights the importance of “us” in Emmanuel Macron’s narrative. For example:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"820323350006341637"}"></div></p>
<p>Here, “We need Europe” followed by “Europe makes us bigger and makes us stronger”. This is sometimes combined with “you”, bringing readers into the narrative:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"817805643461591040"}"></div></p>
<p>“The spring will be ours”, Macron tweets, a reference to the upcoming May election. “You will triumph for our ideas”.</p>
<p>Macron’s narrative falls within a framework of continuous movement, embodied in the very name of Macron’s policial group, “En marche!”, which <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/julien-longhi/Of-a-he-oh-the-left-when-the-political-speech/">I analysed earlier</a>. </p>
<p>We combine the use of “we” and the feeling of a political movement being “set in motion” with the themes being evoked to better understand the narrative Macron and his team are working to build. This emerges visually on the word cloud extracted from within the body of tweets:</p>
<p><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154262/original/image-20170125-23875-1454a8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154262/original/image-20170125-23875-1454a8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154262/original/image-20170125-23875-1454a8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154262/original/image-20170125-23875-1454a8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154262/original/image-20170125-23875-1454a8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154262/original/image-20170125-23875-1454a8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154262/original/image-20170125-23875-1454a8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure></p>
<p>The most common words – “Europe”, “France”, “French”, “country” – are combined elements that evoke the physical context of the story being told (“enmarchebordeaux”, “macronlille”, “macronclermont”) and supported by more programmatic elements (“work”, “revolution”, “health”).</p>
<h2>Characters, scenery and a man of action</h2>
<p>This is further elaborated on the <a href="http://www.iramuteq.org">following graphic</a>, which highlights Macron’s major themes:</p>
<p><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154263/original/image-20170125-23858-2nn6tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154263/original/image-20170125-23858-2nn6tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154263/original/image-20170125-23858-2nn6tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154263/original/image-20170125-23858-2nn6tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154263/original/image-20170125-23858-2nn6tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154263/original/image-20170125-23858-2nn6tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154263/original/image-20170125-23858-2nn6tm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure></p>
<p>The two central columns concern Europe (column 1, with verbs like “take”, “act”, “render”, “re-create”) and France (column 2, with terms such as “project”, “emancipation”, “build”) and have the greatest lexical proximity. Thus, the narrative being proposed to French citizens links them to Europe, through which the changes and proposals largely pass. </p>
<p>By analysing the relationships between categories, it is possible to separate elements within the tweets between those that take action and those that are acted upon: “Macron” and “enmarche” (his party) are change agents, while “Europe”, “French”, “nation”, “project”, or “work” are being acted upon. This acting-on/acted-upon dynamic can be seen in the following tweets:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"820330586267156480"}"></div></p>
<p>Marcron tweets: “I want unemployment protection to become a universal protection.” Another example follows: “Because I’m the candidate of those who work, I want to simplify the regulations for those who create and innovate.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"820327156668661760"}"></div></p>
<p>Or in this tweet:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"818882925659725825"}"></div></p>
<p>Here Macron writes, among other things: “Today I defend one sovereign Europe, one Europe that unites its people.” Linguistically, the connection of action to politics is explicit. </p>
<h2>Creating the narrative thread</h2>
<p>A cloud of words in category 4, relating to Macron’s proposed political program, brings this home:</p>
<p><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154261/original/image-20170125-23878-316hc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154261/original/image-20170125-23878-316hc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154261/original/image-20170125-23878-316hc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154261/original/image-20170125-23878-316hc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154261/original/image-20170125-23878-316hc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=646&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154261/original/image-20170125-23878-316hc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=646&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154261/original/image-20170125-23878-316hc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=646&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure></p>
<p>Many of the terms relate to employment and the economy, as well as the actors within these themes – “employee”, “company”, “student”). Within these tweets, Macron does the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Sketches out a landscape (France and more generally Europe) that itself requires certain postures and actions;</p></li>
<li><p>Places himself as the active player within the setting who is the driving force of action;</p></li>
<li><p>Interacts with a range of others, performing actions generated by the narrative thread.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>While some <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-presidential-election-latest-marine-le-pen-emmanuel-macron-francois-fillon-manuel-valls-a7512021.html">recent polls</a> show Macron as one of the leading candidates – particularly as François Fillon’s difficulties worsen – it’s hard to say how this might play out in the election itself, particularly given recent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/25/pollsters-media-called-election-wrong-do-better">polling difficulties</a> in other countries. </p>
<p>In his campaign for presidency of France, Macron is very much developing a narrative, with a range of tools widely used today in storytelling. And the psychological and cultural dimensions of the narrative – familiar stories, persuasiveness, projection and emotion – help explain its current success.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Leighton Walter Kille.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julien Longhi ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The top vote-getter in the first round of the election, France’s former finance minister has been working to build a political narrative outside of the country’s traditional political parties.Julien Longhi, Professeur des universités en sciences du langage, CY Cergy Paris UniversitéLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/726052017-02-07T16:13:36Z2017-02-07T16:13:36ZA hologram, a family scandal and a man on the march: the French election just got really exciting<p>Embattled presidential candidate <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillon-scandal-is-the-once-favourite-presidential-candidate-toast-72430">François Fillon</a> probably looked at the political calendar in the first week of February and thanked his lucky stars that the spotlight shifted, for a weekend at least, to other candidates in the French election race.</p>
<p>Lyon became the focus of the campaign. Nicknamed “the capital of the three Gauls”, it became the city of three candidates, as independent candidate Emmanuel Macron, far-left proposition Jean-Luc Mélenchon and far-right upsetter Marine Le Pen all rolled into town. Meanwhile, back in Paris, Benoît Hamon was being formally adopted as the socialist candidate. </p>
<h2>Macron in the middle</h2>
<p>Some have accused Macron of <a href="http://www.latribune.fr/economie/presidentielle-2017/emmanuel-macron-ou-le-populisme-d-extreme-centre-617015.html">populism</a>, pointing to his claim that he is of “neither right nor left”. He also claims to stand against “le système” – but that’s ground he shares with Mélenchon, Le Pen and, curiously, Fillon.</p>
<p>Of course they all mean different things by this. For Macron, who is standing at the head of his own movement, it means that he is not tied to any party. For Mélenchon it is shorthand for being profoundly anti-globalisation and eurosceptic. When Le Pen rails against the system, she means the other parties and the Fifth Republic itself – all “designed” to exclude her. And for Fillon, it means state bureaucracy, to which he intends to take a large axe. </p>
<p>Macron is yet to produce a manifesto but 8,000 cheering supporters gathered in the hall to hear him speak in Lyon, with perhaps as many as 5,000 more watching on jumbo screens elsewhere in the complex. However, he is no more a populist than Fillon. On the day, he reiterated his commitment to a reformist, social democratic approach to the market. </p>
<p>What really sets him apart is a very clear and distinctive plea for the EU and for multiculturalism. “There is no such thing as a single French culture. There is culture in France and it is diverse,” he said during his speech. Set against the “one and indivisible secular Republic” of the left and the “roman de la nation” – a single, national history that both Fillon and Le Pen have promised to bring back into French schools – it’s a significant difference. And while populism generally offers simple fixes for complex problems, one thing that might mire Macron’s programme is precisely the detail in his proposals to reform welfare, the minimum wage and taxes.</p>
<h2>Hamon then</h2>
<p>Back in Paris, on Sunday morning, the Socialists prepared to formally endorse Hamon following his victory in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/benoit-hamon-wins-french-socialist-nomination-as-party-sees-a-reassuring-bump-in-the-polls-72139">party primary</a>. There had been some scepticism about him but, in the end, the ceremony passed off without a hitch (although some high profile names were absent, including former presidential candidate Ségolène Royal).</p>
<p>Hamon has his party’s favour now largely as a result of his showing in opinion polls since winning the primary. The party is by no means out of the woods, but he is polling at 16-17%, which of course doesn’t mean victory by any stretch of the imagination, but is considerably less embarrassing than previous results.</p>
<h2>Monsieur Hologramme</h2>
<p>Hamon’s success has been a setback for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. A former member of the Socialist party, he opposed the party’s decision to support the European constitution in 2005 and left in 2009 to set up his own Parti de Gauche.</p>
<p>A candidate in 2012, with the support of the Communists (PCF), Mélenchon was something of a surprise package. Anti-globalisation and profoundly eurosceptic, he promised to spend that campaign making life unbearable for Le Pen. He made a strong showing at the start of the campaign before losing out in the first round of the election. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QQeTlJRwN7k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Mélenchon’s magic trick.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mélenchon’s fortunes have fluctuated since, but the rejection of Hollandisme within the left gave him enough encouragement to announce that he would be a 2017 candidate as early as February 2016. The PCF hesitated and, in the autumn of 2016, even rejected supporting Mélenchon and his <a href="http://www.jlm2017.fr/">La France Insoumise</a> movement, before figuring that it had no alternative. Hamon’s rise in the polls, has given them some sense of satisfaction and belief that they may not have to support Mélenchon after all.</p>
<p>Mélenchon’s task on February 5, then, was to take back the initiative, which he did it in striking fashion by appearing in two places at the same time – in Lyon in person and in Paris in hologram form.</p>
<p>His two-hour speech was high on the rhetoric of resistance and saw him attack, by turns, Macron for his social democracy, Fillon for promising reforms that will do little for low earners, and Le Pen for being Le Pen. Hamon, by contrast, was spared, since that relationship remains a work in progress.</p>
<p>One question that remains regarding Mélenchon’s policies of raising the basic wage and other welfare increases and improvements is how he plans to pay for it all. On Sunday, Mélenchon answered the question by <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/elections-presidentielle-legislatives-2017/2017/02/05/melenchon-a-lyon-et-a-paris-et-la-mort-et-la-betise-combien-ca-coute_1546484">rejecting it</a>: “No one puts a price on stupidity, or death”. Quite so, Jean-Luc …</p>
<h2>Le Pen’s top 144 suggestions</h2>
<p>For her part, Le Pen’s speech rounded off a weekend of events that had started on Saturday with her presenting her 144 propositions for France. Of course, no one has read them all and very few people will, but they are summed up under seven promises of a France that will be “free, safe, prosperous, fair, proud, powerful and enduring”.</p>
<p>What this means in concrete terms is jettisoning the Schengen agreement, rejecting multiculturalism, reinforcing secularism in public spaces (shorthand for bans on Muslim dress), protectionism, the introduction of school uniforms and revising the history curriculum in schools (both policies she shares with Fillon), and making overtime tax-free (an idea that the Sarkozy-Fillon government introduced between 2007 and 2012). At the bottom of it all, however, lies a fundamental commitment to Frexit: to leave the eurozone and the EU.</p>
<p>Two posters from the weekend sum up Le Pen’s campaign. One promises to “put France back in order in five years”. Another tells the story of a mother, living in a car with her five-year-old son, or a retired farmer living off a pittance: “Alas for Sandra/Pierre, they are not migrants.”</p>
<p>Most of the main candidates for 2017 are now in place. François Bayrou, the veteran centrist, has still to announce whether he will stand. And despite a press conference on the evening of Monday February 6 at which Fillon presented his mea culpa but promised to fight on, there are still doubts that he can see the contest out. It is not clear what effect, if any, the announcement that Nicolas Sarkozy will face charges over the funding of his 2012 campaign (the so-called Bygmalion Affair) will have on Fillon or any of the others.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72605/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a big weekend of campaign launches, most candidates are now in place for the 2017 presidential race.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.