There is good news and bad news for Prime Minister Scott Morrison in the first Newspoll for 2021.
Rigor académico, oficio periodístico
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Two-thirds of respondents in the last poll of the year said they were satisfied with Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s performance, a reflection of his handling of COVID-19.
Newspoll showed most people approved of the Coalition’s budget, with 42% saying it would be good for the economy and 49% saying Labor wouldn’t have delivered a better alternative.
The Coalition government has seen a bounce in its primary vote. Meanwhile, polls continue to point to a victory for Joe Biden in the US, but there is still a long way to go until November 3.
Labor had its best results in the Newspoll since late April, perhaps reflecting how people view Morrison’s handling of the aged care-coronavirus debacle.
Scott Morrison continues to have a good pandemic, at least according to the polls, while the gap between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the US narrows, with Biden maintaining a significant lead.
Voters appear to be holding state premiers responsible for coronavirus case surges, rather than the federal government.
Labor’s Kristy McBain is leading in the closely-watched byelection for the marginal NSW seat.
Morrison’s approval rating was at 68% in the latest Newspoll, while 27% of respondents were dissatisfied. His soaring popularity, though, hasn’t boosted the Coalition as much as would be expected.
The prime minister’s approval ratings and the two-party preferred vote come closer to alignment, while Donald Trump still faces an uphill battle in November if economic doldrums continue.
An “outlier” poll suggests most people approve of the government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, but remain distrustful of the government’s performance more broadly.
Nearly two-thirds of people (61%) were satisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance as prime minister, up a massive 20 points from the last Newspoll.
Usually a major crisis benefits incumbent leaders. But that has not been the case for Donald Trump – and his chances of re-election in November now look shaky.
Morrison suffered a drop in his job performance rating, with 37% saying they were satisfied, down eight points from early December, and 59% saying they were dissatisfied, up 11 points.
While polls have been patchy for some years, analysis shows they have been particularly out of whack since Morrison became prime minister.
The election is complicated by the apparent lumpiness of the vote, with seats expected to change hands in both directions.
While Ipsos on Newspoll are telling different stories about leaders’ approval ratings, both are still showing a likely victory for Labor at the federal election.
On primary votes, the ALP dropped a point to 36%, while the Coalition was static on 38%, from the last Newspoll a week ago.
The latest Newspoll shows a further tightening on two-party preferred, but was making some strange assumptions about the slow of preferences.
Neither party got a bump from the official start of the federal election campaign, with Labor retaining its 52-48 advantage in the latest Newspoll.
Principales colaboradores
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Vice-Chancellor and President, University of Canberra
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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Adjunct Professor of Politics. Griffith Business School, Griffith University
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Tony Walker es Amigo de The Conversation.
Vice-Chancellor's Fellow, La Trobe University
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Senior Lecturer in Clinical Ethics and Health Law, University of Newcastle
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Emeritus professor, Southern Cross University
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Professor of Politics, Griffith University
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Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch University
