Given the failure of British polls to predict the outcome of Brexit, is it possible Donald Trump could produce a surprise result of even greater proportions?
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Artículos sobre Polls
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There are several different ways to approach democracy. Polls, elections and referenda all feature, but they’re not the only way to deepen democracy.
The 2016 US presidential race has been a strange campaign in many ways, but the swing state map looks very familiar.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has not dropped below 80 percent since March 2014. Russians overwhelmingly support their president’s aggression in Georgia and Crimea. Here’s why.
It’s not a good idea to simply rely on methods that have provided accurate predictions in the past.
Not voting can have serious consequences regarding the kind of society we end up living in. Disengagement can mean a lowering of quality of life.
Whether it’s Hillary Clinton’s courting the UFO vote or Donald Trump’s lending credibility to various conspiracy theories, the “triumph of reason” seems to have gone by the wayside.
Natalie Mast speaks with 'Poll Bludger' William Bowe in the final week of the election campaign to break down how the major parties have faired and which seats could decide the election.
When the everyday punter sees or hears opinion polls, many might believe that their fellow punters are indeed evenly split on their voting intentions.
Greens leader Richard Di Natale told Q&A that if there was a vote among people who are under 30 in Australia, there’d possibly be a Greens prime minister. What do the polls say?
Natalie Mast speaks with 'Poll Bludger' William Bowe about how the election campaign has gone so far and what the Senate might look like as a result of changes to the voting method.
Internet polls are offering up quite different results to phone polls. Here are a few suggestions as to why.
Final pre-election Australian polls have usually been accurate, at least on primary votes.
Despite a recent surge in the polls, the distribution of marginal seats means it will be difficult for Labor to win the coming federal election.
When considering US elections it pays to “follow the money” – and not just the campaign donations. Head to the bookies, not the polls, to see who’s really in with a shout.
As Jeb Bush, the 11th declared Republican candidate enters the race for president, a look back at a secretive survey in 1935 that foreshadowed today’s ubiquitous horserace polls.
‘Shy Tories’ doesn’t cut it. There is another anomaly in the election poll data which offers a more useful angle on what went wrong.
While pre-election polls got their sums wrong, and seemed to ignore biases in the rush to publish, a far more accurate call was being made in the betting shops of Britain.
Britain’s first-past-the-post system is often defended on the grounds that it enables voters to choose between alternative governments. Two qualities supposedly give it this character. First, it gives…
Foundation essay: This article is part of a series marking the launch of The Conversation in the US. Our foundation essays are longer than our usual comment and analysis articles and take a wider look…
Principales colaboradores
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
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Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield
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Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine
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Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
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Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University
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Professor of Geography, University of Bristol
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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PhD Candidate, The University of Western Australia
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Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne
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Senior Project Manager, Murdoch University
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Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
