tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/questions-answered-38842/articlesQuestions answered – The Conversation2023-10-17T12:20:05Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155902023-10-17T12:20:05Z2023-10-17T12:20:05ZIsrael is getting a surge in donations from the US in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554061/original/file-20231016-22-q212pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=868%2C36%2C3986%2C2599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The attacks may have reversed a decline in philanthropy seen in recent years</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IsraelPalestiniansUSReactions/e1208b2d8b5646b0af03c3f1787ad542/photo?Query=(renditions.phototype:horizontal)%20AND%20%20(israel%20rally%20us)%20&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=now-14d&totalCount=81&currentItemNo=39">AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The U.S. government has stepped up its focus on Israel following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hamas-assault-echoes-1973-arab-israeli-war-a-shock-attack-and-questions-of-political-intelligence-culpability-215228">Oct. 7, 2023</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-rockets-airstrikes-tel-aviv-ca7903976387cfc1e1011ce9ea805a71">Hamas attacks</a>. American Jews are also responding, in part by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/with-bulletproof-vests-socks-soap-us-jews-rush-aid-israel-2023-10-11/">sending money and other kinds of aid</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked Hanna Shaul Bar Nissim, a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=oUIgI-YAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of Jewish philanthropy</a>, to describe recent trends in U.S. giving to Israeli causes and how it’s changing.</em></p>
<h2>Is US Jewish giving to Israeli causes significant?</h2>
<p>Yes. Nonprofits in Israel say they get an estimated <a href="https://www.ilp.sites.tau.ac.il/post/giving-to-israel-american-institutional-philanthropy-to-israeli-nonprofits">US$2 billion a year in donations from other countries</a>. Over half of that is from Jewish organizations and individuals in North America, mostly the United States. <a href="http://bir.brandeis.edu/handle/10192/34091">Jewish federations</a>, regional organizations that give collectively to causes in the U.S. and in foreign countries, private family foundations and donor-advised funds provide the lion’s share of this money.</p>
<p>Historically, U.S. <a href="https://scholarworks.iupui.edu/items/1b3f1fcd-fc66-4c25-a35e-e31921dbc725">Jewish giving to Israeli causes</a> and other forms of <a href="https://www.israelbonds.com/Investing/Investing-Options.aspx">financial support for Israel</a>, such as purchases of Israeli bonds, have been motivated by religious, national and cultural traditions.</p>
<p>U.S. Jewish giving to Israeli causes has been significant <a href="https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/almanac/israel-reborn">since the country’s founding 75 years ago</a> in 1948. These donations have supported secular and faith-based programming and organizations, <a href="https://www.proquest.com/docview/2787197017?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true">sustained community institutions</a>, funded the work of advocacy organizations and met social and educational needs.</p>
<p>This kind of philanthropy is a traditional expression of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/05/11/u-s-jews-connections-with-and-attitudes-toward-israel/">emotional attachment to Israel</a> that is shared by Jews of many different backgrounds and denominations. About <a href="https://rudermanfoundation.org/white_papers/the-american-jewish-community-trends-and-changes-in-engagement-and-perceptions/">2 in 3 American Jews</a> personally feel connected to Israel, according to recent research. </p>
<p>Multiple factors influence the amount of money U.S. Jews give to Israeli causes, including changes to <a href="https://scholarworks.brandeis.edu/esploro/outputs/report/The-New-Philanthropy-American-Jewish-Giving/9924144303801921">American tax laws</a> regarding donations to overseas organizations. In recent years, Israel’s increasingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-aipac-could-lose-its-bipartisan-status-113241">conservative social and religious policies</a> – which clash with the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/05/11/u-s-jews-political-views/">liberal politics of most American Jews</a> – have <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/why-jewish-giving-to-israel-has-been-on-the-decline-since-2009/">contributed to a decline in giving</a>.</p>
<h2>Do wars and other major conflicts usually affect Jewish giving to Israel?</h2>
<p>Traditionally, more American Jews have donated to Israeli causes during emergencies, military operations and environmental disasters, and they’ve <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/18/giving/overseas-as-conflict-rises-so-do-gifts-to-israel.html">given more money</a> amid crises.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-jewish-giving-to-israel-is-losing-ground-100946">those spikes in giving</a> have gotten smaller over the past two decades, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-jewish-giving-to-israel-is-losing-ground-100946">American Jewish giving to Israel has declined</a> in general.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554060/original/file-20231016-23-lbbygb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People mill around heaps of donated clothing and other essential goods." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554060/original/file-20231016-23-lbbygb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554060/original/file-20231016-23-lbbygb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554060/original/file-20231016-23-lbbygb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554060/original/file-20231016-23-lbbygb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554060/original/file-20231016-23-lbbygb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554060/original/file-20231016-23-lbbygb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554060/original/file-20231016-23-lbbygb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Israeli evacuees from kibbutzim near the Gaza border receive clothing donations at a hotel in the Dead Sea area on Oct. 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/israeli-evacuees-from-kibbutzim-near-the-gaza-border-news-photo/1715759986?adppopup=true">Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s new this time?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/how-foundations-with-programs-in-israel-are-responding-to-the-hamas-attacks">surge of donations</a> began immediately after Oct. 7. It included funds for nonprofits and <a href="https://www.israelhayom.com/2023/10/16/200m-raised-by-israel-bonds-in-wake-of-oct-7-attack/">Israeli bond purchases</a> by individual investors in the U.S. and around the world, as well as by state and local U.S. governments.</p>
<p>Fundraising efforts in the U.S. following Oct. 7 <a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-767973">raised more than $100 million</a> within seven days after the attacks.</p>
<p>Many <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-civilians-help-victims-american-hospital/">U.S. volunteers are lending their time and expertise</a> to cover operational and logistical needs.</p>
<p>And some Israelis who live in the United States have helped arrange prefunded <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/anonymous-donor-buys-250-plane-tickets-israel-bound-idf-reservists-jfk-airport-report">charter flights for their compatriots</a> who wish to go back there to distribute aid.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554059/original/file-20231016-25-icvjhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7872%2C4820&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Women look sad while holding Israeli flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554059/original/file-20231016-25-icvjhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7872%2C4820&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554059/original/file-20231016-25-icvjhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554059/original/file-20231016-25-icvjhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554059/original/file-20231016-25-icvjhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554059/original/file-20231016-25-icvjhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554059/original/file-20231016-25-icvjhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554059/original/file-20231016-25-icvjhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators gather during a rally in support of Israel outside the West Los Angeles Federal Building on Oct. 10, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/demonstrators-gather-during-a-rally-in-support-of-israel-news-photo/1717387782?adppopup=true">Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What was going on before Oct. 7?</h2>
<p>U.S. Jewish philanthropy for Israel had been changing before the current conflict began. The government’s <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/israel-law-review/article/long-hand-of-anticorruption-israeli-judicial-reform-in-comparative-perspective/8EA6B1CAE08CFD6FB4FA38B3FA36CEC0">controversial attempt to change Israel’s judicial system</a>, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was increasing global interest in events taking place in Israel and <a href="https://theconversation.com/israels-judicial-reform-efforts-could-complicate-its-relationship-with-us-but-the-countries-have-faced-other-bumps-along-the-road-203104">dividing Israeli society</a>.</p>
<p>Some American Jewish donors were voicing their objections and funding Israeli nonprofits that oppose the changes.</p>
<p>A group of wealthy U.S. Jewish donors and family foundations, for example, sent an <a href="https://www.jta.org/2023/02/20/israel/major-diaspora-philanthropists-warn-of-danger-to-israeli-democracy">open letter to Netanyahu</a> in February 2023 that warned of the negative potential consequences for Israeli democracy and the harm that would do to relations with Jews outside Israel. The signatories included <a href="https://www.acbp.net/founders.php">Charles Bronfman</a>, a co-founder of Birthright, which takes young Jewish people on free, 10-day trips to Israel.</p>
<h2>Are there other sources of US philanthropy for Israel outside the Jewish community?</h2>
<p>Multiple U.S. corporations have pledged to donate humanitarian aid or match employee donations, including <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/fox-corporation-donates-1-million-united-jewish-appeal-providing-israel-emergency-relief">Fox Corp.</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-banks-tech-firms-offer-support-israel-victims-announce-aid-2023-10-13">Goldman Sachs</a>.</p>
<p>This is a rare <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-tech-investors-pledge-support-230009728.html">source of philanthropic support for Israel</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215590/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hanna Shaul Bar Nissim is the Deputy Director U.S., of the Ruderman Family Foundation. </span></em></p>As American Jews grieve, many are giving as well.Hanna Shaul Bar Nissim, Visiting Scholar of Philanthropy, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2029152023-04-21T12:41:15Z2023-04-21T12:41:15ZBoy Scouts of America can now create $2.4 billion fund to pay claims for Scouts who survived abuse – a bankruptcy expert explains what’s next<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518556/original/file-20230330-1211-2pnq14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C46%2C2757%2C1918&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The alleged sexual abuse that led to this settlement occurred from 1944 through 2016. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/boy-scouts-of-america-dressed-in-uniforms-carry-american-news-photo/1159640147">Newsday LLC via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>On April 19, 2023, the <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-boy-scouts-of-america-bsa-announces-confirmation-of-plan-of-reorganization-and-emergence-from-chapter-11-bankruptcy-to-equitably-compensate-survivors-while-ensuring-scouting-continues-across-the-country-301802086.html">Boy Scouts of America declared that it has exited its bankruptcy</a> case after <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/boy-scouts-emerges-chapter-11-bankruptcy-2023-04-19/">clearing one of the last legal hurdles</a> in its way. Some insurance companies and sex abuse claimants objected to the Boy Scouts’ plan to pay claimants, but the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals held that the plan can go ahead anyway while the insurers’ appeal is pending. It’s now possible to begin the process of paying at least US$2.45 billion to resolve about 82,000 claims against the Boy Scouts and affiliated entities asserted by people who allege that they were <a href="https://abusedinscouting.com/history-of-abuse/">sexually abused as children</a> over the <a href="https://vaumc.org/blog/2022/07/08/important-positive-news-regarding-the-boy-scouts-and-our-local-churches/">past 80 years</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Boy Scouts operate through the national organization known as the BSA, which includes hundreds of separate but affiliated organizations known as <a href="https://www.scouting.org/about/local-council-locator/">local councils</a>, and faith-based or civic groups called <a href="https://scoutingmagazine.org/2021/04/scouting-faq-chartered-organizations">chartered organizations</a>. Because these troop-sponsoring nonprofit organizations across the country are responsible for ensuring the safety of children in scouting, all of them faced child sexual abuse claims.</em></p>
<p><em>The BSA <a href="https://cases.omniagentsolutions.com/?clientId=3552">filed for bankruptcy in February 2020</a> to halt the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-delaware-dover-lawsuits-religion-38c9b9db99c491bec9e1bd31d26ea63d">hundreds of lawsuits that were then pending</a> in state courts. More than two years later, the BSA reached an agreement with many of its insurers, all of the local councils, some of the chartered organizations and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-payments-to-sex-abuse-victims-in-boy-scouts-bankruptcy-could-take-18-months-11648077889">roughly 85% of all sex abuse claimants</a> on a plan to pay claims.</em> </p>
<p><em><a href="https://pennstatelaw.psu.edu/faculty/reilly">The Conversation asked Marie T. Reilly</a>, a Penn State law professor who studies bankruptcy cases involving child sex abuse claims against Catholic dioceses, to explain what this means.</em></p>
<h2>What happens next?</h2>
<p>The plan the court approved in the BSA’s bankruptcy case will <a href="https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/6cfcb7aa-d181-40ec-aad1-5543a02babcd_BSA_Plan_Summary_and_FAQs.pdf">create a settlement trust</a> to process and pay sexual abuse claims.</p>
<p>Two retired judges and a committee made up of lawyers who represent sex abuse claimants will administer the trust, which will be <a href="https://www.bsarestructuring.org/event/district-court-rules-in-favor-of-bsa-upholding-the-order-to-confirm-the-bsas-plan-of-reorganization/">the largest sexual abuse compensation fund</a> ever established in the U.S. It will operate independently of the BSA. </p>
<p>The trust will take over responsibility for all claims against the BSA. All parties that contribute to it will be relieved of their liability.</p>
<h2>Where will the money come from?</h2>
<p>The BSA will contribute to the trust property estimated to be worth $220 million. Local councils will contribute about $515 million in cash, property and money obtained from their insurers. Chartered organizations, including the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/boy-scouts-revises-bankruptcy-plan-to-remove-250-million-mormon-church-settlement-11660589753">Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-religion-delaware-sexual-abuse-by-clergy-dover-287019e3686c8b0005ffe6ee715a4a04">Roman Catholic and Methodist</a> churches, schools and other affiliated institutions, will also contribute and receive a release from liability for claims.</p>
<p>The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, still sometimes called the Mormon Church, used to participate in the Boy Scouts but <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/09/us/boy-scouts-mormon-church.html">severed ties to it in 2018</a>. It will contribute <a href="https://www.bsarestructuring.org/event/bsa-marks-progress-with-chartered-organizations-and-announces-new-agreements-for-1-037-billion-in-contributions-to-trust/">$250 million</a>.</p>
<p>Insurance companies that issued policies covering the BSA will contribute about $1.6 billion. The trustee of the settlement trust has the authority to sue the insurance companies that have not agreed to the settlement to try to get more money to pay claims.</p>
<h2>How much money will survivors get and when will payments begin?</h2>
<p>People who have filed sex abuse claims have three options:</p>
<p>1) Accept a $3,500 payment based on the information already submitted about their claim in the bankruptcy case. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-payments-to-sex-abuse-victims-in-boy-scouts-bankruptcy-could-take-18-months-11648077889">About 6,700 survivors have already elected</a> this option.</p>
<p>2) Submit additional information and have the trustee determine the amount based on <a href="https://www.bsarestructuring.org/estimated-potential-payment-calculator/">agreed-upon factors</a>, including the severity of the abuse.</p>
<p>3) Sue in state court and have a jury determine the amount.</p>
<p>Payments will not start to flow until the trust determines the payment amount of each claim. If the fund is not big enough to pay every claim in full, the trust will reduce the amount of each claim to reflect the estimated shortfall. </p>
<p>It’s hard to say how long it will take to process the nearly 75,000 claims that have not elected the $3,500 option.</p>
<p>Among other things, the trust will need to hire and onboard staff and to set up secure systems to gather and evaluate personal information from tens of thousands of people.</p>
<p>This is likely to be both expensive and slow.</p>
<h2>How will this settlement affect the Boy Scouts?</h2>
<p>The Boy Scouts face an uncertain future after the bankruptcy case.</p>
<p>The organization’s <a href="https://www.ncacbsa.org/who-pays-for-scouting/">revenue depends on membership dues</a>, contributions from its troop sponsoring organizations, product sales, service fees and donations. And the dues are lower because of a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/only-on-ap-health-coronavirus-pandemic-7afeb2667df0a391de3be67b38495972">sharp decline in membership</a>. The BSA now has a little <a href="https://blog.scoutingmagazine.org/2023/01/05/1-million-and-growing-bsa-membership-is-on-the-rise/">more than 1 million members</a> across the country – about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/01/us/boy-girl-scouts-membership-decrease-covid.html">half as many as in 2019</a>.</p>
<p>Trying to convert some of the Boy Scouts-owned properties into cash to meet the organization’s obligations under the bankruptcy plan is complicated. It may take years to accomplish, dragging out the timeline.</p>
<p>Local councils are already selling property to raise the cash they need to make the contribution to the fund.</p>
<p>For example, a local council in New Jersey is <a href="https://www.poconorecord.com/story/news/environment/2022/12/21/boy-scout-camp-sale-in-poconos-would-go-towards-victims-of-sex-abuse/69734886007/">selling its land in the Pocono Mountains</a> to pay its share of the contribution to the compensation fund. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/poconos-coal/monroe-county-group-hoping-to-keep-former-boy-scout-camp-from-being-sold-to-developers/article_ec0bc5be-9135-11ed-bbcb-c7ebc89469f6.html">Local residents are concerned</a> that the pristine land, estimated to be worth $4 million, will end up lost to developers.<br>
The same controversy is unfolding regarding the <a href="https://www.curbed.com/2022/07/boy-scouts-open-space-for-sale.html">sale of local council property in Connecticut</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/science-technology/loss-of-open-space">U.S. Forest Service estimates</a> that 6,000 acres (24 square kilometers) of open space are lost every day to other uses. <a href="https://www.scouting.org/outdoor-programs/properties/">Local Boy Scouts councils own</a> a significant portion of open space in the U.S., and much of it may be lost.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518559/original/file-20230330-17-vzefiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A lakeside structure in the wilderness with a large rustic building in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518559/original/file-20230330-17-vzefiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518559/original/file-20230330-17-vzefiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518559/original/file-20230330-17-vzefiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518559/original/file-20230330-17-vzefiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518559/original/file-20230330-17-vzefiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518559/original/file-20230330-17-vzefiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518559/original/file-20230330-17-vzefiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Deer Lake Boy Scout Reservation in Killingworth, Conn., is among the many properties nationwide being sold by local councils.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BoyScouts-CampSelloff/02f7fcf4e1234edebf58bc56a493144b/photo?boardId=37be9465fcce45d283d5431cccb20a6a&st=boards&mediaType=audio,photo,video,graphic&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=331&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Pat Eaton-Robb</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Are there precedents for this?</h2>
<p><a href="https://elibrary.law.psu.edu/bankruptcy/">Catholic organizations have resolved liability</a> for child sexual abuse in bankruptcy cases with plans that are similar to the BSA’s. But the scale of the Boy Scouts’ case in terms of the number of claims and the size of the settlement trust fund is much larger than any case involving a single diocese, or any other nonprofit organization bankruptcy case.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marie T. Reilly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This is a green light for creating the largest-ever compensation fund for sex abuse claims.Marie T. Reilly, Professor of Law, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1990272023-04-10T12:06:53Z2023-04-10T12:06:53ZHow direct admission is changing the process of applying for college<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519330/original/file-20230404-28-mlawv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C59%2C7951%2C5237&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A college admission letter might come from a school you haven't applied to – or even heard of.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/hispanic-woman-celebrating-getting-into-college-royalty-free-image/1362971867">Antonio_Diaz / iStock / Getty Images Plus via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>For students and families who are considering college, a relatively new option for admission is <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2023/01/30/direct-admissions-continues-grow">gaining popularity</a>. In addition to the long-standing regular admissions process, and various options for early admission decisions, is something called “direct admission.”</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pI7szcYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Mary Churchill</a>, a scholar of higher education administration at Boston University, to explain what direct admission is and how it works.</em></p>
<h2>What is direct admission?</h2>
<p>In direct admission, soon-to-be high school graduates can be accepted into a college or university without having to submit an application. </p>
<p>This often happens during a student’s senior year of high school, but some colleges make these offers during junior year.</p>
<p>Direct admission is one of <a href="https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12234/agile-college">several strategies</a> colleges and universities use to make it easier for high school graduates to go to college. They are also hoping it can help reverse a trend of <a href="https://usprogram.gatesfoundation.org/news-and-insights/articles/gates-foundation-probes-college-enrollment-decline">declining higher education enrollment</a> in the U.S.</p>
<p>Applying to college can take a lot of money and time and requires students to figure out the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150530">college application process</a>, which can sometimes be complex. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/27/learning/what-students-are-saying-about-rejection-overcoming-fear-and-their-word-of-the-year.html">fear of rejection</a> also discourages some people from applying.</p>
<p>With direct admission, this fear of rejection is removed because qualified students receive an acceptance letter from a college without needing to apply.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9CkgEp0xrxE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">One university’s explanation of the direct admission process.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How can students qualify?</h2>
<p>In some cases, all a student has to do is graduate from high school. In other cases, students have to achieve a certain GPA or score on the ACT or SAT.</p>
<p>Students don’t typically know that they have qualified until they receive an acceptance letter. Many community colleges are charged with offering educational opportunities to any member of the public. So they will often directly admit all students who successfully graduate from a given high school or district. Other colleges are more selective and may admit all graduates with grades or standardized testing scores above a minimum target.</p>
<p>In some states, all students who graduate from a public high school are offered admission to a set of public colleges and universities. <a href="https://nextsteps.idaho.gov/direct-admissions">Idaho was the first</a> to do this, in 2015.</p>
<h2>What are the benefits for colleges?</h2>
<p>One of the biggest advantages is they get more direct access to the students the college wants to attract, which can be different for every college. Often the most desirable students are top scholars, people from a particular geographic area or some combination of demographic attributes, like racial or ethnic background and family economic status.</p>
<p>This enables colleges to reach more students than they would if they only did high school visits and college fairs, or direct marketing to students.</p>
<p>In addition, the college has an opportunity to reach potential students who are from more demographically diverse backgrounds than their usual applicants.</p>
<p>For example, colleges can target schools that have a lot of students from a particular group that is underrepresented on campus and that the college hopes to attract – and offer direct admissions to all the students in a graduating class.</p>
<p>If a college wanted to enroll more male students, it could offer direct admissions to all-boys high schools. If it wanted to enroll more Black and Latino boys, it could offer direct admissions to all-boys high schools with larger populations of Black and Latino students.</p>
<h2>What are the benefits for students?</h2>
<p>Direct admission does not require students or their families to fill out an application or pay application fees. Of course, students who accept their admission must complete paperwork and pay tuition and other costs associated with enrolling – but they need not do anything to receive an admission letter from the college. </p>
<p>When an unexpected welcome letter arrives from a well-known college, it can help students who didn’t see college in their future begin to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-022-09675-x">envision themselves as college students</a>.</p>
<p>Some colleges target students for direct admission even earlier than their junior years, because they know that students often decide whether they want to go to college or not <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150530">as early as middle school</a>.</p>
<p>Evidence shows that direct admission programs lead to more students admitted to colleges, and <a href="https://forum.illinois.edu/docs/librariesprovider5/default-document-library/2019conference_direct-admissions-full-report.pdf">more students attending</a>. </p>
<p>When Idaho launched its statewide <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-022-09675-x">direct admissions program in 2015</a>, overall college enrollment grew by about 8%.</p>
<h2>Is this the future of college admissions?</h2>
<p>For <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/rhe.2019.0069">colleges that are nonselective</a>, the answer is yes.</p>
<p>Direct admission is a relatively inexpensive way for an individual college, or an entire state, to make college opportunities more clearly available to more students. Colleges can get the attention of their ideal student populations. </p>
<p>As direct admission becomes more common, colleges – especially community colleges – will likely need additional staff and money to handle the large-scale influx of admissions.</p>
<p>Some institutions are even partnering with education management companies, such as <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2022/10/24/direct-admissions-takes">Concourse, Sage Solutions and The Common Application</a>. These colleges may be able to spend less on marketing and recruitment over time. But initially, they will need to spend more to process students admitted directly.</p>
<p>Students may find themselves receiving admission letters from colleges they’ve never applied to – and perhaps never even heard of. This may lead students to turn more to guidance counselors to help them decide which direct admission offers to accept based on a school’s cost, academic programs and other factors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199027/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary L. Churchill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More and more colleges are offering admission to students who never applied.Mary L. Churchill, Associate Dean, Strategic Partnerships and Community Engagement and Professor of the Practice, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032052023-04-06T12:07:20Z2023-04-06T12:07:20ZDeadly fungus Candida auris is spreading across US hospitals - a physician answers 5 questions about rising fungal infections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519667/original/file-20230405-14-l85lwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=215%2C32%2C6186%2C3847&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Candida auris is a fungal yeast that can infect humans.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/candida-yeast-and-hyphae-stages-illustration-royalty-free-illustration/1296293760?phrase=candida%20auris&adppopup=true">Kateryna Kon/Science Photo Library via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In late March 2023, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention highlighted the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2023/p0320-cauris.html">threat posed by a rapidly spreading fungus</a> called Candida auris that is causing infections and deaths among hospital patients across the country. The unexpected rise of this recently discovered pathogen is part of a larger trend of increasing fungal infections in the U.S.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://directory.hsc.wvu.edu/Individual/Index/31722">Arif R. Sarwari</a> is a physician and professor of infectious diseases at West Virginia University. Amid rising concerns among doctors and public health officials, Sarwari helped explain what Candida auris is, how it is spreading and how worried people in the U.S. should be.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is Candida auris?</h2>
<p><em>Candida auris</em> is a recently identified, single-cell fungus that can infect humans and is moderately <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/fungal/candida-auris/index.html">resistant to existing antifungal drugs</a>. You might be familiar with superficial fungal infections – like athlete’s foot or vaginal yeast infections – which are quite common and don’t pose significant risks to most people. In contrast, <em>Candida auris</em> and other related fungi can <a href="https://doi.org/10.2174/1389450120666190924155631">cause infections within a person’s body</a> and are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fjof7010031">much more dangerous</a>.</p>
<p><em>Candida auris</em> is a type of yeast that was first identified in 2009 and is one of a number of species in the candida family that can infect people. In the past, most invasive candida infections were <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/fungal/diseases/candidiasis/invasive/statistics.html">caused by <em>Candida albicans</em></a>. Recently, though, infections with species of candida that are much more resistant to drugs than <em>Candida albicans</em> – <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2023/p0320-cauris.html">like <em>Candida auris</em></a> – have shot up, with a nearly <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/fungal/candida-auris/tracking-c-auris.html">fivefold increase since 2019</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519668/original/file-20230405-22-9491i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person holding an IV line with a patient's arm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519668/original/file-20230405-22-9491i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519668/original/file-20230405-22-9491i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519668/original/file-20230405-22-9491i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519668/original/file-20230405-22-9491i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519668/original/file-20230405-22-9491i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519668/original/file-20230405-22-9491i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519668/original/file-20230405-22-9491i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Candida fungi can get into a person’s bloodstream through a contaminated IV line and cause a blood infection.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/checking-a-cannula-royalty-free-image/622263704?phrase=IV%20catheter&adppopup=true">Richard Bailey/Corbis Documentary via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. How dangerous are candida infections?</h2>
<p>For the most part, healthy people do not have to worry about invasive candida infections. There are two groups of people who are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra1315399">most at risk for dangerous candida infections</a>: first are patients in intensive care units who also have central intravenous catheters and are receiving broad spectrum antibiotics. Patients with weak immune systems, such as cancer patients on chemotherapy or patients with human immunodeficiency virus, are also at high risk of candida infection.</p>
<p>Nearly all people have candida fungi growing in their guts and on their skin as part of their microbiome. When a person is healthy, candida numbers are low, but the fungi can proliferate rapidly and overcome a person’s immune system when a patient is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0195-6701(95)90036-5">sick and on antibiotics</a>. </p>
<p>If candida cells on a person’s skin contaminate an intravenous line, the fungus can get into a patient’s bloodstream and cause often deadly bloodstream infections. Candida species are the fourth most-common cause of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/421946">hospital associated bloodstream infections</a>. </p>
<p>There are three classes of antifungal drugs that can be used to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idc.2021.03.005">fight invasive candida infections</a>. <em>Candida albicans</em> is susceptible to all three and easier to treat than <em>Candida auris</em>, which is moderately <a href="https://doi.org/10.3947/ic.2022.0008">resistant to all three classes of antifungals</a>.</p>
<h2>3. How common are invasive fungal infections?</h2>
<p>The CDC estimates that in the U.S., around <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/fungal/diseases/candidiasis/invasive/statistics.html">25,000 patients get candida bloodstream infections</a> every year. </p>
<p>Candida bloodstream infections are best understood as a tale of two eras. In the past, they were almost always caused by drug-susceptible <em>Candida albicans</em> that arose endogenously from a patient’s own microbiome. There was no concern about infections spreading to other patients.</p>
<p>The recent emergence of drug-resistant and more transmissible <em>Candida auris</em> is <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2023/p0320-cauris.html">raising alarms</a> among health professionals. Because this species can contaminate surfaces and easily spread from patient to patient, the fungus is causing outbreaks both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.micpath.2018.09.014">within and between hospitals</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="H18dQ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/H18dQ/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>4. Why are fungal infections increasing?</h2>
<p>Fungal infections have been rising in the U.S. in recent years, especially infections caused by <em>Candida auris</em>. The pathogen only caused a few infections each year between 2013 and 2016, but starting in 2017, infections began to rise rapidly with <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/fungal/candida-auris/tracking-c-auris.html">2,377 confirmed cases recorded in 2022</a> according to the CDC. Deaths caused by all candida infections are rising, too, from 1,010 in 2018 <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/fungal/cdc-and-fungal/burden.html">to nearly 1,800 in 2021</a>.</p>
<p>The reasons for this increase are complicated, but I think there are two main drivers: more, sicker patients in hospitals and a stressed health system, both of which got worse during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>Hospitals are seeing more very sick patients with weak immune systems, especially as the population ages. This means there are more susceptible patients at hospitals to begin with. </p>
<p>Additionally, any time the health system is stressed – like during a pandemic – drug-resistant <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/pdf/covid19-impact-report-508.pdf">bacterial and fungal infections increase</a>. This is because very sick patients are usually in crowded wards and exposed to many antibiotics. In addition, loss of hospital staff and increased workload results in lower quality sanitation - causing more spread of resistant pathogens.</p>
<p>I view the rise of drug-resistant fungi like <em>Candida auris</em> through the same lens as <a href="https://theconversation.com/antibiotic-resistance-is-at-a-crisis-point-government-support-for-academia-and-big-pharma-to-find-new-drugs-could-help-defeat-superbugs-169443">worsening antibiotic resistance</a>. The more antibiotics people use, the greater the chances a resistant strain will become dominant.</p>
<h2>5. What can the medical community do about it?</h2>
<p>There are a few options for fighting the rise of drug-resistant <em>Candida auris</em>. </p>
<p>The most effective measures are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK563297/">good infection control practices</a>. These behaviors and protocols include practicing good hand hygiene before and after each patient contact, wearing isolation gowns and gloves that are carefully discarded in a patient’s room, and taking measures to detect <em>Candida auris</em> infections early and isolate patients to prevent the spread. Though relatively simple, these actions are key to preventing the spread of all antibiotic-resistant pathogens, not just fungi.</p>
<p>The second option is to develop better drugs to treat new, antifungal-resistant strains of candida. Many new antifungal drugs are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fjof8111144">already under development</a>. However, prevention through sound infection control will always remain foundational, as further drug development is akin to an arms race.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arif R. Sarwari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Candida auris is a relatively new addition to a family of fungi that can infect people. Most of these infections occur in sick, hospitalized patients and can be deadly.Arif R. Sarwari, Professor of Infectious Diseases, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1951622023-04-05T12:23:16Z2023-04-05T12:23:16ZInnies, outies and omphalophobia: 7 navel-gazing questions about belly buttons answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517462/original/file-20230324-1164-blenfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C374%2C3564%2C2404&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Your genes determine the look of your navel.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/young-girl-looking-at-her-belly-button-royalty-free-image/97766642">Mike Kemp/Tetra images via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Everyone has one, but you might not know much about it. Here <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iGYBbvEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">biologist Sarah Leupen</a>, who teaches human and comparative animal physiology, explains the ins and outs of belly buttons.</em></p>
<h2>1. Why do I even have a belly button?</h2>
<p>Your belly button, or navel – <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-62383-2_1">clinically, your umbilicus</a> – is the permanent scar left from where your umbilical cord connected your circulatory system, when you were a fetus, to the placenta. Fetuses don’t breathe, eat or eliminate waste, so the placenta provides an exchange site for the mother to deliver oxygen and nutrients from her bloodstream to the fetus, as well as collecting its wastes to eliminate from her body.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517463/original/file-20230324-27-hz5plh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="closeup of umbilical cord stump on infant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517463/original/file-20230324-27-hz5plh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517463/original/file-20230324-27-hz5plh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517463/original/file-20230324-27-hz5plh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517463/original/file-20230324-27-hz5plh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517463/original/file-20230324-27-hz5plh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517463/original/file-20230324-27-hz5plh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517463/original/file-20230324-27-hz5plh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Once the umbilical cord is cut, the stump dries up and falls off, revealing the baby’s navel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-umbilical-cord-royalty-free-image/525032060">Wacharaphong/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After the baby is born, the physician or other attendant cuts the cord and clamps off the stub, which then dries and falls off after about a week, leaving the point of connection – your belly button – remaining.</p>
<p>If the cord is not cut, as has been the practice in some times and places and as is becoming trendy again in others, it will close off after an hour or so, then naturally detach a few days after birth. Some health care practitioners are <a href="https://www.med.umich.edu/1libr/Pediatrics/LotusBirthHandout.pdf">concerned that this “lotus birth”</a> could be an infection risk, since the umbilical cord remains attached to the placenta, which is dead tissue once out of the mother’s body.</p>
<h2>2. If it’s a scar, why doesn’t it disappear over time?</h2>
<p>If you injure just the outer layers of your skin, as in a cut or burn, the scar will soon completely disappear, especially in young people. And newborns are very young people. But unlike in those situations, the umbilicus involves more tissue layers — not just the skin but the connective tissue underneath – so it makes sense it doesn’t just blend in with the rest of your abdominal wall once it’s healed.</p>
<p>What about some pretty complicated surgeries that don’t leave scars? Doctors perform many operations in ways that deliberately avoid scarring, which is not nature’s way. In fact, one way to minimize scarring for surgeries uses this existing scar – surgeons can take advantage of the navel as an incision site for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1053/j.sempedsurg.2011.05.003">removing your appendix</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.3109/13645706.2011.649039">gall bladder</a> or for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soard.2010.12.007">weight-loss surgery</a>.</p>
<p>But if you don’t like the way your umbilical scar looks, plastic surgery to change its appearance, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/15/magazine/the-year-in-ideas-umbilicoplasty.html">called umbilicoplasty</a>, is possible. People sometimes take this cosmetic option after pregnancy or the removal of a piercing, or just to make an “outie” into an “innie.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515931/original/file-20230316-19-jzc793.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="smooth belly with an outie belly button" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515931/original/file-20230316-19-jzc793.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515931/original/file-20230316-19-jzc793.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515931/original/file-20230316-19-jzc793.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515931/original/file-20230316-19-jzc793.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515931/original/file-20230316-19-jzc793.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515931/original/file-20230316-19-jzc793.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515931/original/file-20230316-19-jzc793.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Outies are much less common than innies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/8kd8nw">Zeev Barkan/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. But why do some people have outies, anyway?</h2>
<p>The look of your belly button is not related to the location of the clamp or where your doctor cut the cord.</p>
<p>Outies are simply an example of <a href="https://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/basics/observable/">normal human variation</a>, like the way some people have curly hair or dimples. When the tip of the umbilical cord’s remnant pokes out past the skin around it, you have an outie; <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62383-2_22">about 10% of people have these</a>. Any concave navel is called an “innie” and a convex one an “outie.”</p>
<p>Sometimes outies can be caused by an umbilical hernia in the baby or another medical problem, but most of it is just due to what your genes encoded. You might also temporarily have an outie during late pregnancy, when the abdominal pressure from the growing fetus stretches your navel and may push it out.</p>
<h2>4. How deep does it go?</h2>
<p>You can probably easily probe the depth of your own navel – there are no hidden recesses there. What’s under it is the same as what’s under the skin of the rest of your abdomen: your abdominal muscles, to which the navel is attached by a short umbilical stalk, and the peritoneum, the membrane that lines the abdominal cavity. Under that lie your guts – that is, your intestines and other abdominal organs. If you keep following this imaginary journey back, you’ll get to your spine – the belly button is usually lined up <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62383-2_22">between the third and fourth lumbar vertebrae</a> (L3 and L4).</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WkgjK3Kp6Uw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Learn how to find your pet’s belly button.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. Do other animals have belly buttons?</h2>
<p>Because the navel is a scar from where the umbilical cord connected the fetus to the placenta, all placental mammals have them. That includes all mammals except <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/marsupial">marsupials</a> (like kangaroos and possums) and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/monotreme">monotremes</a> (like platypuses and echidnas).</p>
<p>Your cat or dog or guinea pig does have a belly button, but because it’s a flatter scar than a person’s rather than a concave one, and is covered in fur, you might have missed it.</p>
<h2>6. Is there anything besides lint in there?</h2>
<p>Like any concave surface, if you have an innie, it probably gathers bits of debris occasionally. Your navel also has microbiota, just like the rest of your skin. Because it’s pretty protected from soap and abrasion, a more <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skin_flora#Umbilical_microbiome">stable and diverse bacterial community</a> lives in your navel than elsewhere on your skin’s surface.</p>
<p>The innovative <a href="http://robdunnlab.com/projects/belly-button-biodiversity/">Belly Button Biodiversity project</a> at North Carolina State University has revealed a lot about these little friends. The researchers found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0047712">over 2,000 species of bacteria</a> in the first 60 belly buttons they investigated.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1422846688276979715"}"></div></p>
<p>It looks like most people have a set of eight common belly button bacteria, but the project is discovering new ones all the time.</p>
<h2>7. Why do belly buttons gross out some people?</h2>
<p>There hasn’t really been much research into why some people find belly buttons to be repulsive.</p>
<p>It may overlap with <a href="https://healthresearchfunding.org/fear-bellybuttons/">omphalophobia</a>, the fear of belly buttons and touching them. There’s no specific treatment beyond the therapy or anti-anxiety medications a doctor might prescribe for any other phobia.</p>
<p>Whatever your feelings about belly buttons, they’re harmless. What’s more, they’re part of your evolutionary legacy as a mammal, the group of animals so invested in their offspring that they invented a way to deliver nutrients and oxygen, the mother’s bread and breath, straight into their developing young. Your navel can be a reminder of that first life-sustaining care you received from another person before you were even born.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195162/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Leupen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>All mammals who get nutrients from their parent via a placenta before birth are left with a belly button. It’s a visual reminder of this original connection.Sarah Leupen, Principal Lecturer in Biological Sciences, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2018552023-03-16T16:34:44Z2023-03-16T16:34:44ZNew PFAS guidelines – a water quality scientist explains technology and investment needed to get forever chemicals out of US drinking water<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515625/original/file-20230315-3073-baa7d7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C111%2C8218%2C5363&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">PFAS can be found in hundreds of water systems in the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-young-asian-woman-pouring-water-from-royalty-free-image/1299286918?phrase=pouring%20water%20into%20glass&adppopup=true">d3sign/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Harmful chemicals known as PFAS can be found in everything from <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/dangerous-chemicals-found-in-baby-supplies-pet-food-packaging/ar-AA18o3wY">children’s clothes</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140017">soil</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-pfas-and-why-is-the-epa-warning-about-them-in-drinking-water-an-environmental-health-scientist-explains-185015">drinking water</a>, and regulating these chemicals has been a <a href="https://theconversation.com/pfas-forever-chemicals-are-widespread-and-threaten-human-health-heres-a-strategy-for-protecting-the-public-142953">goal of public and environmental health researchers</a> for years. On March 14, 2023, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed what would be the first set of <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/biden-harris-administration-proposes-first-ever-national-standard-protect-communities">federal guidelines regulating levels of PFAS in drinking water</a>. The guidelines will be open to public comment for 60 days before being finalized.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=edLoshMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Joe Charbonnet</a> is an environmental engineer at Iowa State University who develops techniques to remove contaminants like PFAS from water. He explains what the proposed guidelines would require, how water utilities could meet these requirements and how much it might cost to get these so-called forever chemicals out of U.S. drinking water.</em></p>
<h2>1. What do the new guidelines say?</h2>
<p>PFAS are <a href="https://theconversation.com/regulating-forever-chemicals-3-essential-reads-on-pfas-201263">associated with a variety of health issues</a> and have been a focus of environmental and public health researchers. There are thousands of members of this class of chemicals, and this proposed regulation would set the allowable limits in drinking water for six of them.</p>
<p>Two of the six chemicals – PFOA and PFOS – are <a href="https://www.epa.gov/assessing-and-managing-chemicals-under-tsca/fact-sheet-20102015-pfoa-stewardship-program">no longer produced in large quantities</a>, but they <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-pfas-and-why-is-the-epa-warning-about-them-in-drinking-water-an-environmental-health-scientist-explains-185015">remain common in the environment</a> because they were so widely used and break down extremely slowly. The new guidelines would allow for no more than four parts per trillion of PFOA or PFOS in drinking water.</p>
<p>Four other PFAS – GenX, PFBS, PFNA and PFHxS – would be regulated as well, although with higher limits. These chemicals are common replacements for PFOA and PFOS and are their close chemical cousins. Because of their similarity, they cause harm to human and environmental health <a href="https://pfastoxdatabase.org/">in much the same way</a> as legacy PFAS.</p>
<p>A few states have already established their own limits on levels of PFAS in drinking water, but these new guidelines, if enacted, would be the first legally enforceable federal limits and would affect the entire U.S. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515627/original/file-20230315-2738-19docw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A water droplet sitting on a piece of fabric." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515627/original/file-20230315-2738-19docw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515627/original/file-20230315-2738-19docw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515627/original/file-20230315-2738-19docw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515627/original/file-20230315-2738-19docw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515627/original/file-20230315-2738-19docw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515627/original/file-20230315-2738-19docw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515627/original/file-20230315-2738-19docw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chemicals used to create water-repellent fabrics and nonstick pans often contain PFAS and leak those chemicals into the environment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_water_droplet_DWR-coated_surface2_edit1.jpg#/media/File:A_water_droplet_DWR-coated_surface2_edit1.jpg">Brocken Inaglory/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. How many utilities will need to make changes?</h2>
<p>PFAS are harmful <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c02765">even at extremely low levels</a>, and the proposed limits reflect that fact. The allowable concentrations would be comparable to a few grains of salt in an Olympic-size swimming pool. Hundreds of utilities all across the U.S. <a href="https://www.ewg.org/interactive-maps/pfas_contamination/map/">have levels of PFAS above the proposed limits</a> in their water supplies and would need to make changes to meet these standards. </p>
<p>While many areas have been tested for PFAS in the past, many systems have not, so health officials don’t know precisely how many water systems would be affected. A recent study used existing data to estimate that about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00713">40% of municipal drinking water supplies</a> may exceed the proposed concentration limits.</p>
<h2>3. What can utilities do to meet the guidelines?</h2>
<p>There are two major technologies that most utilities consider for removing PFAS from drinking water: <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sdwa/overview-drinking-water-treatment-technologies">activated carbon or ion exchange systems</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515628/original/file-20230315-20-qih6p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A membrane treatment system." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515628/original/file-20230315-20-qih6p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515628/original/file-20230315-20-qih6p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515628/original/file-20230315-20-qih6p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515628/original/file-20230315-20-qih6p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515628/original/file-20230315-20-qih6p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515628/original/file-20230315-20-qih6p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515628/original/file-20230315-20-qih6p1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Water treatment systems can use activated carbon or ion exchange to remove PFAS from drinking water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/industry-sustainability-water-purification-filter-royalty-free-image/1382353791?phrase=water%20purification%20plant&adppopup=true">Paola Giannoni/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Activated carbon is a charcoal-like substance that PFAS stick to quite well and can be used to remove PFAS from water. In 2006, the town of Oakdale, Minnesota, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186%2Fs12940-020-00591-0">added an activated carbon treatment step</a> to its water system. Not only did this additional water treatment bring PFAS levels down substantially, there were significant improvements in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-020-00591-0">birth weight and the number of full-term pregnancies</a> in that community after the change. </p>
<p>Ion exchange systems work by flowing water over charged particles that can remove PFAS. Ion exchange systems are typically even better at lowering PFAS concentrations than activated carbon systems, but they are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D2EW00080F">also more expensive</a>.</p>
<p>Another option available to some cities is simply finding alternative water sources that are less contaminated. While this is a wonderful, low-cost means of lowering contamination, it points to a major disparity in environmental justice; more rural and less well-resourced utilities are <a href="https://perma.cc/3HTS-8E3H">unlikely to have this option</a>.</p>
<h2>4. Is such a major transition feasible?</h2>
<p>By law, the EPA must consider not just human health but also the feasibility of treatment and the potential financial cost when <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ground-water-and-drinking-water/national-primary-drinking-water-regulations">setting maximum contaminant levels in drinking water</a>. While the proposed limits are certainly attainable for many water utilities, the costs will be high.</p>
<p>The federal government has made available <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/biden-harris-administration-announces-2-billion-bipartisan-infrastructure-law-funding">billions of dollars</a> in funding for treating water. But some estimates put the total cost of meeting the proposed regulations for the entire country at around <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/13/the-battle-over-who-pays-to-clean-up-chemicals-00056136">US$400 billion</a> – much more than the available funding. Some municipalities may seek financial help for treatment from nearby polluters, while others may raise water rates to cover the costs.</p>
<h2>5. What happens next?</h2>
<p>The EPA has set a 60-day period for public comment on the proposed regulations, after which it can finalize the guidelines. But many experts expect the EPA to <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/pfas-rule-sets-up-sprawling-legal-war/">face a number of legal challenges</a>. Time will tell what the final version of the regulations may look like. </p>
<p>This regulation is intended to keep the U.S. in the enviable position of having some of the <a href="https://epi.yale.edu/epi-results/2020/component/h2o">highest-quality drinking water</a> in the world. As researchers and health officials learn more about new chemical threats, it is important to ensure that every resident has access to clean and affordable tap water.</p>
<p>While these six PFAS certainly pose threats to health that merit regulation, there are thousands of PFAS that likely have very <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBjQYUjEUb4">similar impacts on human health</a>. Rather than playing chemical whack-a-mole by regulating one PFAS at a time, there is a growing consensus among researchers and public health officials that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00255">PFAS should be regulated as a class of chemicals</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201855/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joe Charbonnet receives funding from the US EPA for research that is not directly related to PFAS. This article contains links to resources from the Green Science Policy Institute, which previously employed Dr. Charbonnet. </span></em></p>The drinking water systems serving over 70 million people may not meet newly proposed water quality standards. It could cost hundreds of billions of dollars to fix that.Joe Charbonnet, Assistant Professor of Environmental Engineering, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1976712023-01-20T13:37:37Z2023-01-20T13:37:37ZHow do you vaccinate a honeybee? 6 questions answered about a new tool for protecting pollinators<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505433/original/file-20230119-14-78gogp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4759%2C3216&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A new vaccine promises better protection against a virulent honeybee infection. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BeeHealth/dec03c6d562c457fa83f50032ab8a6f1/photo">AP Photo/Elise Amendola</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Honeybees, which pollinate <a href="https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animal-health-literacy/helping-agricultures-helpful-honey-bees">one-third of the crops Americans eat</a>, face many threats, including infectious diseases. On Jan. 4, 2023, a Georgia biotechnology company called <a href="https://www.dalan.com/">Dalan Animal Health</a> announced that it had <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230104005262/en/First-in-Class-Honeybee-Vaccine-Receives-Conditional-License-from-the-USDA-Center-for-Veterinary-Biologics">received a conditional license</a> from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for a vaccine designed to protect honeybees against American foulbrood, a highly destructive infection.</em> </p>
<p><em>To receive a conditional license, which usually lasts for one year and is subject to further evaluation by the USDA, veterinary biological products must be shown to be <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/vet_biologics/publications/pel_2_2.pdf">pure, safe and reasonably likely to be effective</a>. Dr. Jennie Durant, an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=B1qAtjIAAAAJ&hl=en">agriculture researcher</a> at the University of California, Davis, who specializes in honeybee health, explains why this vaccine is potentially an important step in ongoing efforts to protect pollinators.</em></p>
<h2>1. What threat does this vaccine address?</h2>
<p>The new bee vaccine, <a href="https://www.dalan.com/product">Paenibacillus Larvae Bacterin</a>, aims to protect honeybees from <a href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/northeast-area/beltsville-md-barc/beltsville-agricultural-research-center/bee-research-laboratory/docs/american-foulbrood-disease/">American foulbrood</a>. This highly destructive bacterial disease gets its name from the foul scent honeybee larvae exude when infected. </p>
<p>An outbreak of American foulbrood is effectively a death sentence for a bee colony and can economically devastate a beekeeping operation. The spores from the bacteria, <em>Paenibacillus larvae</em>, are highly transmissible and can remain <a href="https://pollinators.msu.edu/resources/beekeepers/diagnosing-and-treating-american-foulbrood-in-honey-bee-colonies/">virulent for decades</a> after infection. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VENKKufzMAE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How American foulbrood affects honeybee colonies.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once an outbreak occurs, beekeepers typically have to <a href="https://extension.psu.edu/honey-bee-diseases-american-foulbrood#:%7E:text=American%20foulbrood%20(AFB)%20is%20a,death%20in%20only%20three%20weeks.">destroy any bee colonies</a> that they know were infected to avoid spreading the disease. They also have to destroy the hive boxes the colonies were stored in and any equipment that may have touched infected colonies. </p>
<p>Beekeepers have used antibiotics preventively for decades to keep foulbrood in check and treat infected colonies. Often they mix the antibiotics with powdered sugar and sprinkle it inside the colony box. As often happens when antibiotics are overused, scientists and beekeepers are seeing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vetmic.2007.05.018">antibiotic resistance</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.2001861">negative impacts on hive health</a>, such as disruption of the helpful microbes that live in bees’ guts.</p>
<p>In 2017, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration began <a href="https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/development-approval-process/using-medically-important-antimicrobials-bees-questions-and-answers">requiring a veterinarian’s prescription or feed directive</a> to use antibiotics for foulbrood. While this regulatory change <a href="https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animal-health-literacy/helping-agricultures-helpful-honey-bees">sought to address antibiotic resistance</a>, it limited beekeepers’ access to antibiotics and their ability to treat foulbrood preventively. The vaccine would ideally provide a more sustainable solution. </p>
<h2>2. How effectively does the vaccine prevent infection?</h2>
<p>Studies are still analyzing its effectiveness. One <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.946237">published study</a> demonstrated a 30% to 50% increase in resistance to American foulbrood in a vaccinated queen’s offspring. </p>
<p>While this might seem low, it’s important to put the results in context. Given how deadly and contagious American foulbrood is, researchers did not want to directly expose an outdoor hive to foulbrood with an unproven vaccine. Instead, they conducted lab studies where they exposed test hives to around 1,000 times the number of American foulbrood spores a colony would typically be exposed to in the field. Dalan, the manufacturer, has field trials planned for 2023. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1539702810916360192"}"></div></p>
<h2>3. How do you vaccinate honeybees?</h2>
<p>It’s not done with tiny needles – beekeepers mix the vaccine <a href="https://www.dalan.com/science">into bee food</a>. This approach exposes queen bees to inactive <em>Paenibacillus larvae</em> bacteria, which helps larvae hatched in the hive to resist infection. </p>
<p>This is not a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/how-they-work.html">mRNA vaccine</a>, like the Pfizer and Moderna COVID vaccines. It’s a more traditional <a href="https://www.news-medical.net/health/What-is-an-Inactivated-Vaccine.aspx">inactive vaccine</a> like the one we use against polio. To understand how the vaccine works, it’s helpful to know what queen bees eat: a protein-rich substance called “<a href="https://www.beeculture.com/royal-jelly-worker-bee-produced-protein-rich-mothers-milk/">royal jelly</a>” that is secreted from glands on the heads of young worker bees. </p>
<p>When queen bees are shipped to a beekeeper, they are typically placed in a small cage with 50 to 200 worker bees that have been fed something called queen candy. This substance is often made with powdered sugar and corn syrup and has the consistency of sugar cookie dough or modeling clay. Worker bees consume the candy, produce royal jelly and feed it to the queen.</p>
<p>The vaccine’s delivery method uses this unique system. A beekeeper can mix the vaccine with the queen candy, which is then digested by worker bees. They produce royal jelly and feed it to the queen, who digests it and then transfers the vaccine to her ovaries. Once she is transferred to the hive and begins laying eggs, the larvae that hatch from those eggs have a heightened immunity to American foulbrood.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PcDF23HdlUY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The new vaccine takes advantage of the queen’s central role in the hive.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Who will use the vaccine?</h2>
<p>According to representatives at Dalan, limited quantities of the vaccine should be available starting in spring 2023 to commercial beekeepers and bee producers, with the aim of supplying smaller-scale beekeepers and hobbyists in the future. </p>
<h2>5. How long will a dose last?</h2>
<p>Dalan is still researching the specifics. Its current understanding is that it will last as long as the queen bee can lay eggs. If she dies, is killed or is replaced, the beekeeper will have to purchase a new vaccinated queen. </p>
<h2>6. Is this a big scientific advance?</h2>
<p>Yes – it is the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/07/science/honeybee-vaccine.html">first vaccine for any insect in the U.S.</a> and could help pave the way for new vaccines to treat other issues that have plagued the beekeeping industry for decades. Honeybees face many urgent threats, including <a href="https://beelab.umn.edu/varroa-mites"><em>Varroa</em> mites</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/bees-face-many-challenges-and-climate-change-is-ratcheting-up-the-pressure-190296">climate change</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/poor-nutrition-may-be-another-reason-for-the-declining-honey-bee-population-48684">poor nutrition</a>, which makes this vaccine an exciting new development. </p>
<p>Dalan is also working on a vaccine to protect bees against <a href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/northeast-area/beltsville-md-barc/beltsville-agricultural-research-center/bee-research-laboratory/docs/european-foulbrood-disease/">European foulbrood</a>. This disease is less fatal than American foulbrood, but is still highly infectious. Beekeepers have been able to treat it with antibiotics but, as with American foulbrood, they are seeing signs of resistance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197671/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennie L. Durant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A vaccine for bees may evoke images of teeny hypodermic needles, but this product works in a sophisticated way that reflects the social structure of honeybee colonies.Jennie L. Durant, Research Affiliate in Human Ecology, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1977542023-01-12T21:13:47Z2023-01-12T21:13:47ZWhat is the FAA’s NOTAM? An aviation expert explains how the critical safety system works<p><em>Late in the evening of Jan. 10, 2023, an important digital system known as NOTAM run by the Federal Aviation Administration <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/11/1148340708/faa-notam-ground-stop-flight-delay">went offline</a>. The FAA was able to continue getting necessary information to pilots overnight using a phone-based backup, but the stopgap couldn’t keep up with the morning rush of flights, and on Jan. 11, 2022, the FAA grounded all commercial flights in the U.S. In total, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/11/1148340708/faa-notam-ground-stop-flight-delay">nearly 7,000 flights</a> were canceled. <a href="https://aviation.osu.edu/people/strzempkowski.1">Brian Strzempkowksi</a> is the interim director of the Center for Aviation Studies at The Ohio State University and a commercial pilot, flight instructor and dispatcher. He explains what the NOTAM system is and why planes can’t fly if the system goes down.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504319/original/file-20230112-60827-1gx11f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A number of planes line up for takeoff on a runway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504319/original/file-20230112-60827-1gx11f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504319/original/file-20230112-60827-1gx11f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504319/original/file-20230112-60827-1gx11f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504319/original/file-20230112-60827-1gx11f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504319/original/file-20230112-60827-1gx11f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504319/original/file-20230112-60827-1gx11f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504319/original/file-20230112-60827-1gx11f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pilots must check the NOTAM system before takeoff so that they know about any situations that may affect safety.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:6_planes_in_one_photo!_United_Airlines_Boeing_787,_747,_777,_WOW_Airbus_A330_takeoff,_SWA_737,_United_CRJ_landing_SFO_runway_28_L_and_R_(30480576501).jpg#/media/File:6_planes_in_one_photo!_United_Airlines_Boeing_787,_747,_777,_WOW_Airbus_A330_takeoff,_SWA_737,_United_CRJ_landing_SFO_runway_28_L_and_R_(30480576501).jpg">Bill Abbott/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is NOTAM?</h2>
<p>Aviation is full of acronyms, and Notice to Air Missions, or NOTAM, is one acronym that pilots learn early on in their training. A NOTAM is quite simply a message that is disseminated to flight crews of every aircraft in the U.S.</p>
<p>The NOTAM system is a computer network run by the Federal Aviation Administration that provides real-time updates to crews about situations relating to weather, infrastructure, ground conditions or anything else that may <a href="https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/regulations_policies/handbooks_manuals/aviation/phak/03_phak_ch1.pdf">affect the safety of flight</a>. Trained professionals – like air traffic controllers, airport managers, airport operations personnel and FAA personnel in charge of national airspace infrastructure – can access the system and enter any information they need to share broadly.</p>
<p>Pilots, air traffic controllers and anyone else who needs to know about flying conditions can access the NOTAM system and make appropriate changes to planned flights. It’s similar to checking the traffic on your phone or on the local news before you head to work in the morning. A traffic report will inform you of potential hazards or backups on the roadways that may lead you take a different route to work.</p>
<h2>What’s in the NOTAM system and how is it used?</h2>
<p>NOTAMs are issued for a wide range of reasons. Some of the notices are good to know but don’t affect a flight – such as personnel mowing grass alongside a runway or a crane working on a building next to the airport. Others are more critical, such as a runway being closed because of snow, ice or damage, forcing a plane to take off or land on a different runway. Changes in access to airspace are also logged with a NOTAM. For example, airspace is always closed above the president and when he or she travels; a NOTAM will alert pilots to changes in airspace closures.</p>
<p>Pilots <a href="https://pilotweb.nas.faa.gov/PilotWeb/">review these NOTAMs</a> during their preflight briefings. Generally this is done digitally using a computer, but pilots and air traffic controllers can also access the system by calling flight service briefers, who can share <a href="https://www.1800wxbrief.com/Website/home;jsessionid=624B2EEA87E48B2E1DF67CB0B791E054?desktop=true#!/phone-numbers-quick-steps">live weather and NOTAM information</a>. Airline pilots also rely on their dispatchers to relay any relevant NOTAMs not only before but also during the flight. </p>
<p>The NOTAMs themselves use a lot of abbreviations and are often cryptic to nonaviation folks, but a small amount of text <a href="https://www.notams.faa.gov/downloads/contractions.pdf">can carry a lot of information</a>. Hundreds of different acronyms can convey a range of information, from taxiway closures to certain types of airport lighting being out of service to a notice that some pavement markings may be obscured.</p>
<p>But not all NOTAMs are straightforward. I remember once seeing a notice from an airport alerting pilots that a fire department was conducting a controlled burn of a house nearby.</p>
<h2>Why can’t you fly if the NOTAM system is down?</h2>
<p>The Federal Aviation Authority requires flight crews to <a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-14/chapter-I/subchapter-F/part-91/subpart-B/subject-group-ECFRe4c59b5f5506932/section-91.103">review NOTAMs before every flight</a> for safety reasons. Without access to this information, a plane cannot legally depart, because there may be an unknown hazard ahead. </p>
<p>As an example, a pilot departing Seattle to fly to Miami would need to know that the Miami airport is open, that the runways are clear and that all the navigational sources – like GPS signals and ground-based navigation antennas – that a pilot may use while in the air are working. Theoretically, they could call the Miami airport and ask, and then call the person who oversees every navigational aid on their route, but that would take a lot of time. A much more efficient way to gather this information before and during a flight is to use the NOTAM system. </p>
<p>At the end of the day, the NOTAM system is about safety. When the system is down, pilots can’t fly as safely. It is for good reason that planes don’t go anywhere unless the NOTAM system is up and running.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Strzempkowski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Notices to Air Mission system failed on Jan. 10, 2023, leading to thousands of canceled flights. The system is where all important safety information for pilots and dispatchers gets posted.Brian Strzempkowski, Interim Director, Center for Aviation Studies, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1971772023-01-03T23:57:33Z2023-01-03T23:57:33ZDamar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest during ‘Monday Night Football’ could be commotio cordis or a more common condition – a heart doctor answers 4 questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502998/original/file-20230103-14-tb6hos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=66%2C104%2C6264%2C3843&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Damar Hamlin, #3, collapsed on the field after making a tackle during a game on January 2, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/hayden-hurst-of-the-cincinnati-bengals-runs-with-the-ball-news-photo/1454020920?phrase=damar%20hamlin&adppopup=true">Dylan Buell via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Damar Hamlin, a safety for the Buffalo Bills, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/culture/sports/buffalo-bills-damar-hamlin-suffered-cardiac-arrest-during-monday-night-football/">collapsed on the field</a> during a Monday night football game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Jan. 2, 2023.</em></p>
<p><em>Medical staff gave Hamlin CPR and shocked him with a defibrillator, restarting his heart’s normal rhythm. News outlets immediately began speculating that <a href="https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2023/covering-the-possible-causes-and-diagnoses-of-damar-hamlins-injury/">Hamlin may have suffered from commotio cordis</a> – a potentially lethal stoppage of the heart caused by a strong impact to a person’s chest. The next day, the <a href="https://www.cnet.com/culture/sports/buffalo-bills-damar-hamlin-suffered-cardiac-arrest-during-monday-night-football/">Bills announced</a> that Hamlin had indeed experienced “cardiac arrest” but did not confirm whether the cause was commotio cordis.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.cumedicine.us/providers/medicine/wendy-tzou">Dr. Wendy Tzou</a> is Associate Professor of Medicine and the Medical Director of Cardiac Electrophysiology at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus and was watching the game when Hamlin collapsed. The Conversation asked Tzou four questions about what may have happened. Her answers are adapted below.</em> </p>
<h2>1. What is commotio cordis?</h2>
<p>Commotio cordis can happen to a person with a normal heart and occurs when a blunt trauma to a person’s chest – often while playing sports – leads to cardiac arrest where their heart stops pumping blood. Commotio cordis typically occurs in children and adolescents. The impact needs to be forceful and occur at a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra0910111">very particular moment in the heart’s electrical cycle</a>. When this happens, the normally well-organized electrical signals that control the heart become chaotic. The uncoordinated electrical pulses cause the heart, and in particular the large blood-pumping chambers called the ventricles, to twitch and spasm in what is known as <a href="https://europepmc.org/article/med/1182966">ventricular fibrillation</a>, a type of heart arrhythmia.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502995/original/file-20230103-16-g82vdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Six squiggly, erratic lines against a pink backdrop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502995/original/file-20230103-16-g82vdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502995/original/file-20230103-16-g82vdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502995/original/file-20230103-16-g82vdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502995/original/file-20230103-16-g82vdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502995/original/file-20230103-16-g82vdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502995/original/file-20230103-16-g82vdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502995/original/file-20230103-16-g82vdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This ECG diagram shows the electrical signals of a heart in ventricular fibrillation. Compared to the ordered, repeating electrical pulses of a normal heartbeat, this ECG is much more chaotic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ventricular_fibrillation.png">Jer5150/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When a heart is in ventricular fibrillation, it is no longer able to pump blood throughout a person’s body, and their organs begin to suffer damage due to lack of oxygen. Heart attacks, abnormal heart or artery structure, and many other issues can lead to ventricular arrhythmia. Regardless of the cause, if a person’s heart stops beating, the result can be deadly.</p>
<h2>2. How can a physical impact cause a lethal arrhythmia?</h2>
<p>A single heartbeat is a very coordinated series of muscle contractions that are all controlled by precise electrical signals. After the muscles in a heart contract, they need to reset and prepare for the next beat. This process, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/cardiac-action-potential">called repolarization</a>, involves moving electrically charged ions to different parts of a cell so that the cell can effectively contract when it receives an electrical signal.</p>
<p>If a person gets hit in the chest during the fraction of a second that repolarization is occurring, the impact can trigger some of the electrical signals <a href="https://www.proquest.com/docview/222525976?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true">before the heart is ready</a>. This disrupts the whole system, resulting in a chaotic electrical storm that throws the heart into spasms.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IFIu0QBwM0I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Commotio cordis is just one potential cause of ventricular arrhythmia, where the heart spasms and twitches instead of beating normally.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Are doctors sure it was commotio cordis?</h2>
<p>Although Hamlin was able to stand upright immediately after the impact, it was only briefly. It was clear from the way he collapsed without making any effort to protect himself that no blood was getting to his brain. The fact that he received CPR and a shock from a defibrillator also showed that he was experiencing an arrhythmia or electrical disturbance of the heart. But it is not possible to diagnose commotio cordis from a video alone.</p>
<p>The reason many doctors are speculating that commotio cordis was the reason for Hamlin’s heart failure is that it occurred right after he collided with another player and that the impact could have been responsible. But, in most cases, a diagnosis is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra0910111">only made after an autopsy</a> when all other potential causes of arrhythmia have been ruled out. Though more common among among children and adolescents than adult athletes, commotio cordis is so rare that it is hard to get reliable information on the number of occurrences. In a registry of patients who died from sudden arrhythmia in Minnesota, only <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra0910111">224 cases over a 15-year period</a> were caused by commotio cordis.</p>
<p>Usually when a <a href="https://doi.org/10.14797%2Fmdcj-12-2-76">healthy athlete experiences sudden cardiac arrest</a>, the cause is one of two more common conditions. <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/hypertrophic-cardiomyopathy/symptoms-causes/syc-20350198">Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy</a> is when the walls of a person’s heart thicken and can cause sudden arrhythmia with no prior symptoms. Roughly <a href="https://doi.org/10.14797%2Fmdcj-12-2-76">1 in 200 U.S. residents</a> have hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. A person usually inherits the condition and multiple family members are often affected, so many people are diagnosed well before they begin playing competitive sports. However, some cases do slip through the cracks, and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is responsible for about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcm.2021.06.001">21% of sudden arrhythmia deaths in athletes</a>. </p>
<p>The second most common cause of fatal heart rhythms in athletes are abnormalities in the structure of a coronary artery. These abnormalities are present at birth and can compromise blood flow to the heart, sometimes resulting in issues during exercise. Around 1% of people have an issue with the structure of their coronary artery, and the problem is responsible for about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcm.2021.06.001">14% of cardiac deaths in athletes</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502994/original/file-20230103-22-4gmk42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An open yellow box with wired and a red button." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502994/original/file-20230103-22-4gmk42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502994/original/file-20230103-22-4gmk42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502994/original/file-20230103-22-4gmk42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502994/original/file-20230103-22-4gmk42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502994/original/file-20230103-22-4gmk42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502994/original/file-20230103-22-4gmk42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502994/original/file-20230103-22-4gmk42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An automated external defibrillator, or AED, can restart a heart’s normal rhythm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AED_open_cutout.jpg#/media/File:AED_open_cutout.jpg">Owain Davies/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. How can people protect themselves from sudden and fatal arrhythmia?</h2>
<p>Commotio cordis is a rare occurrence, but does happen in sports <a href="https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.111.023861">including boxing, baseball or football</a> where blunt trauma directly to the chest is common. Appropriate precautions, like using chest padding, are the most effective way to prevent commotio cordis. </p>
<p>Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, coronary artery problems and other heart problems that may predispose someone to dangerous heart rhythms may be found through screening. Your doctor can offer advice on whether a screening could be beneficial to you or your family members.</p>
<p>No matter the cause, if a person’s heart stops pumping blood and oxygen isn’t getting to their brain, time is everything. Call 911 and start CPR immediately to delay the onset of brain damage or death until a defibrillator can hopefully restart the heart’s normal rhythm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197177/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Tzou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Disruptions to the electrical signals that control a person’s heartbeat are dangerous, no matter the cause. A heart doctor explains the biology of cardiac arrest and what might have happened on the field.Wendy Tzou, Associate Professor of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical CampusLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1928022022-11-01T12:46:19Z2022-11-01T12:46:19ZBeyond passenger cars and pickups: 5 questions answered about electrifying trucks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491972/original/file-20221026-13-xcxwfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C10%2C6689%2C4456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trucks line up to load and unload at the Port of Los Angeles in Long Beach, California.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/trucks-line-up-to-drop-off-their-loads-at-the-port-of-los-news-photo/1228408112">Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>As part of its effort to reduce air pollution and cut greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change, California is pursuing aggressive policies to promote clean trucks. The state already requires that by 2035, all new cars and other light-duty vehicles sold in the state must be <a href="https://www.greencarcongress.com/2022/08/20220826-acc2.html">zero emission</a>. Its powerful <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/">Air Resources Board</a> has adopted rules requiring that most trucks be zero emission by 2035, and is now proposing that all trucks sold by 2040 <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-09-21/california-regulators-new-big-rigs-zero-emission-by-2040">must be zero emission</a>. The Conversation asked a panel of transportation experts from the University of California, Davis what’s involved in such a rapid transition.</em></p>
<h2>1. Why is California targeting medium- and heavy-duty trucks?</h2>
<p>Although diesel engines are valuable for moving heavy loads, they also are major polluters. Diesel trucks account for <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/diesel-fuel/diesel-and-the-environment.php">one-fourth of greenhouse gas emissions</a> and <a href="https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/TransportationWhitePaper.pdf">about half of conventional air pollution</a> from transportation in U.S. cities. </p>
<p>Pollutants in diesel exhaust include nitrogen oxides, fine particulates and <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/overview-diesel-exhaust-and-health">numerous cancer-causing compounds</a>. Since many disadvantaged communities are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/03/09/redlining-pollution-environmental-justice/">located near highways and industrial centers</a>, their residents are especially affected by diesel truck pollution. Two regions in California – the <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/3460147-the-best-and-worst-u-s-cities-for-air-quality/">Central Valley and Los Angeles-Long Beach</a> – have some of the dirtiest air in the U.S., so the state has placed particular emphasis on cutting diesel use. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/j-zybIQbTTE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Almost all diesel fuel in the U.S. is used in trucks, not in passenger vehicles.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Are zero-emission trucks ready to go?</h2>
<p>To a degree, yes. Some new models, mainly powered by batteries but some by <a href="https://www.energy.gov/public-services/vehicles/hydrogen-fuel-cells">hydrogen fuel cells</a>, are available on the market, and more are being announced almost daily. </p>
<p>But the production volumes are still small, and there are many variations of truck models needed for very diverse applications, from delivering mail locally and plowing snow to hauling goods cross-country. Many of these needs cannot be met with currently offered zero-emission trucks. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0p14c77j">hurdle</a> is that new electric truck models have <a href="https://theicct.org/cost-electric-semi-feb22/">higher purchase prices</a> than comparable diesel trucks. However, as the market for zero-emission trucks grows, economies of scale should bring these costs down significantly. We already see this happening with <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2022/trends-in-electric-light-duty-vehicles">zero-emission cars and light-duty trucks</a>.</p>
<p>The total cost of ownership for zero-emission trucks, which includes the purchase price, fuel costs and maintenance, is <a href="https://ncst.ucdavis.edu/research-product/current-and-future-performance-and-costs-battery-electric-trucks-review-key">already competitive in some applications</a> with conventional diesel trucks. One example is trucks used for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2022.102783">local goods delivery</a> by companies like Amazon, UPS and FedEx. This stage is also known as last-mile delivery – getting a product to a buyer’s door.</p>
<p>These trucks are typically driven less than <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7kr753nm">150 miles per day</a>, so they don’t need large battery packs. Their lower energy costs and reduced maintenance needs often offset their higher purchase costs, so owners save money on them over time. </p>
<p>Our studies indicate that by 2025 and especially by 2030, many applications for battery trucks, and perhaps hydrogen fuel cell trucks, will have <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1g89p8dn">competitive or even lower total costs of ownership</a> than comparable diesel trucks. That’s especially true because of California subsidies and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128353">incentives</a>, such as the <a href="https://californiahvip.org/">Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project</a>, which reduces the cost of new electric trucks and buses. And the state’s <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/low-carbon-fuel-standard">Low Carbon Fuel Standard</a> greatly reduces the cost of low-carbon fuels and electricity for truck and bus fleets.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492193/original/file-20221027-25221-5wsypi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a white shuttle bus painted with branding and '100% Zero Emission.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492193/original/file-20221027-25221-5wsypi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492193/original/file-20221027-25221-5wsypi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492193/original/file-20221027-25221-5wsypi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492193/original/file-20221027-25221-5wsypi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492193/original/file-20221027-25221-5wsypi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492193/original/file-20221027-25221-5wsypi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492193/original/file-20221027-25221-5wsypi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zeem Solutions CEO Paul Gioupis poses in one of his company’s vehicles. Zeem, based in Inglewood, California, rents fleets of zero-emission trucks, vans and shuttle buses to other companies for a flat monthly fee.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/paul-gioupis-ceo-of-zeem-solutions-allows-companies-to-news-photo/1408096502">Brittany Murray/MediaNews Group/Long Beach Press-Telegram via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The market in California is already reacting to these policy signals and is developing quickly. In the past year, there has been a large increase in sales of last-mile electric delivery trucks, and companies have stepped up their pledges to procure such vehicles. </p>
<p>Over 150 zero-emission truck models are commercially available and eligible for state incentive funding. They range from <a href="https://californiahvip.org/vehicle-category/2b/">large pickup trucks</a> to <a href="https://californiahvip.org/vehicle-category/heavy-duty/">heavy-duty tractor units for tractor-trailer combinations</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Is there enough charging infrastructure to support all these vehicles?</h2>
<p>Providing near-zero-carbon electricity for EVs and hydrogen for fuel cells, and expanding charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure, is just as important as getting zero-emission trucks on the roads.</p>
<p>Fleet owners will need to install chargers that can charge their battery-powered trucks overnight, or sometimes during the day. These stations may require so much power that utilities will need to install additional hardware to bring electricity from the grid to the stations to meet potentially high demands at certain times. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vP5iRWqV-V4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This video from the utility Southern California Edison shows some of the steps involved in electrifying medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fuel cell trucks will require hydrogen stations installed either at fleet depots or public locations. These will allow fast refueling without high instantaneous demands on the system. But producing the hydrogen will require electricity, which will put an additional burden on the electric system.</p>
<p>Presently there are few public or private charging or hydrogen stations for truck fleets in California. But the California Public Utility Commission has allowed utilities to charge their customers to install a significant number of <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-topics/electrical-energy/infrastructure/transportation-electrification/approved-te-investments">stations throughout the state</a>. And the U.S. Department of Energy recently allocated $8 billion for construction of <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-launches-bipartisan-infrastructure-laws-8-billion-program-clean-hydrogen-hubs-across">hydrogen hubs</a> – networks for producing, processing, storing and delivering clean hydrogen – across the country. </p>
<p>Despite these efforts, the rollout of charging and hydrogen infrastructure will likely slow the transition to zero-emission trucks, especially long-haul trucks.</p>
<h2>4. Who would be affected by a diesel truck ban?</h2>
<p>California’s rules will affect both truck manufacturers and truck users. The state’s <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-trucks">Advanced Clean Trucks rule</a>, adopted in 2020, requires the sale of increasing percentages of zero emission trucks starting in 2024. By 2035, 40% to 75% of all trucks, depending on the truck type, must be zero emission. </p>
<p>A new proposal scheduled for adoption in early 2023, the <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-fleets">Advanced Clean Fleets rule</a>, would require fleets with over 50 trucks to purchase an increasing number of zero-emission trucks over time, with the requirement that all truck sales and purchases be zero emission by 2040. </p>
<p>These two policies would work together. The Advanced Clean Trucks rule ensures that zero-emission trucks will become available to fleets, and the Advanced Clean Fleets rule would give truck manufacturers confidence that the zero-emission trucks they produce will find buyers. </p>
<p>These two rules are the most ambitious in the world in accelerating a transition to zero-emission trucks. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1285224795530055682"}"></div></p>
<h2>5. Are other states emulating California?</h2>
<p>Yes, there is strong interest in many other states in electrifying trucking. Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts have already <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-06/how-zero-emission-laws-will-reshape-u-s-trucking?sref=Hjm5biAW">adopted the Advanced Clean Trucks rule</a>, and <a href="https://www.electrictrucksnow.com/states">others are in the process of doing so</a>. Seventeen states and the District of Columbia have <a href="https://www.electrificationcoalition.org/nevada-joins-multi-state-agreement-to-electrify-trucks-and-buses/">agreed to work together</a> to foster a self-sustaining market for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. </p>
<p>We expect that transitioning to zero-emission truck fleets will require strong policy support at least until the 2030s and perhaps longer. The transition should become self-sufficient in most cases as production scales up and fleets adapt their operations, resulting in lower costs. This could be soon, especially with medium-duty trucks. </p>
<p>Converting large long-haul trucks will be especially challenging because they need large amounts of onboard energy storage and benefit from rapid refueling. Fuel cell systems with hydrogen may make the most sense for many of these vehicles; fleets will ultimately decide which technologies are best for them. </p>
<p>The transition to zero-emission trucks will be disruptive for many fleets and businesses, and will require government support during the early years of the transition. Overall, though, we believe prospects are bright for zero-emission trucking, with enormous clean air and climate benefits, and eventually, cost savings for truck owners.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192802/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Sperling receives funding from a variety of government agencies and foundations. He is a board member with the California Air Resources Board and the Southwest Energy Efficiency Project. . </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lewis Fulton, via UC Davis, receives funding from a range of organizations involved in manufacturing vehicles, installing infrastructure, and other activities relevant to the market development of battery-electric vehicles. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marshall Miller receives funding via UC Davis from a range of organizations involved in manufacturing vehicles, installing infrastructure, and other activities relevant to the market development of battery-electric vehicles.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Miguel Jaller receives funding from Federal and State agencies, foundations, truck manufacturers, and other organizations.
He has provided advisory to startup companies in the transportation and trucking fields, and is an Amazon Scholar working on worldwide sustainability efforts for Amazon.</span></em></p>As California goes on regulating air pollution, other states often follow – including the Golden State’s ambitious goals for cleaning up emissions from trucking.Daniel Sperling, Distinguished Blue Planet Prize Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Founding Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, DavisLewis Fulton, Co-director, STEPS (Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways), University of California, DavisMarshall Miller, Senior Development Engineer, institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, DavisMiguel Jaller, Associate Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923712022-10-13T18:57:37Z2022-10-13T18:57:37ZSoaring inflation prompts biggest Social Security cost-of-living boost since 1981 – 6 questions answered <figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489641/original/file-20221013-11-56zp8r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=159%2C199%2C6243%2C4178&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social Security benefits have lost their purchasing power as inflation has soared in 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/senior-man-with-face-mask-buying-vegetables-in-royalty-free-image/1257463364?phrase=retiree%20shopping">Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Social Security is set to <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/releases/2022/#10-2022-2">boost the benefits it provides retirees</a> by 8.7%, the biggest cost-of-living adjustment since 1981. It comes as sky-high inflation continues to eat into incomes and savings.</em></p>
<p><em>The changes are set to take effect in January 2023 and were announced following the release of the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">September 2022 consumer price index report</a>, which showed inflation <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-increase-more-than-expected-september-weekly-jobless-claims-2022-10-13/">climbing more than expected</a> during the month, by 0.4%.</em></p>
<p><em>The automatic adjustment will surely come as a relief to tens of millions of retirees and those who receive <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/ssi/">supplemental security income</a> who may be struggling to afford basic necessities as inflation has accelerated throughout 2022. But an annual adjustment wasn’t always the case – and other government benefits and programs deal with inflation differently.</em></p>
<p><em>John Diamond, who <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond">directs the Center for Public Finance at Rice’s Baker Institute</a>, explains the history of the Social Security cost-of-living, or COLA, increase, what other benefits are adjusted for inflation and why the government makes these changes.</em></p>
<h2>1. How fast is the cost of living rising?</h2>
<p>The latest data, for September, shows <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">average consumer prices are up 8.2%</a> from a year earlier. The monthly gain of 0.4% was double what economists <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-increase-more-than-expected-september-weekly-jobless-claims-2022-10-13/">surveyed by Reuters had expected</a>. </p>
<p>More troubling, so-called <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL">core inflation</a> – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – gained even more in September, ticking up by 0.6%. Core inflation is a measure that’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/inflation-figure-that-the-fed-follows-closely-hits-highest-level-since-january-1982.html">closely watched by the Federal Reserve</a>, as it helps show how pervasive and persistent inflation has become in the economy. </p>
<h2>2. How are Social Security benefits adjusted for inflation?</h2>
<p>Automatic adjustments to Social Security benefits began in 1975 after President Richard Nixon signed the 1972 <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/1972amend.html">Social Security amendments</a> into law.</p>
<p>Before 1975, Congress had to act each year to increase benefits to offset the effects of inflation. But this was an inefficient system, as politics would often be injected into a simple economic decision. Under this system, an increase in benefits <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/50mm2.html">could be too small</a> or too large, or could fail to happen at all if one party blocked the change entirely.</p>
<p>Not to mention that with the baby boomers – those born from 1946 to 1964 – entering the labor force it was already clear that Social Security would face long-term funding issues in the future, and so <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally1972b.html">putting the program on autopilot</a> reduced the political risk faced by politicians. </p>
<p>Since then, benefits have climbed automatically by the average increase in consumer prices during the third quarter of a given year from the same period 12 months earlier. This is based on a <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CWUR0000SA0#0">version of the consumer price index</a> meant to estimate price changes for working people and has been rising slightly faster than the overall pace of inflation.</p>
<p>While helpful, these inflation adjustments are backward-looking and imperfect. For example, 2022 Social Security benefits <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/cola/">increased by 5.9%</a> from the previous year, even though inflation throughout this year <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL#0">has been significantly higher</a> – which means the higher benefits weren’t covering the higher cost of living. Thus, the 2023 increase in benefits primarily offsets what was lost over the previous year. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white hand holds a card reading social security" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489656/original/file-20221013-23-gha634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Millions of retirees and other will soon see a big jump in their Social Security benefits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SocialSecurity/6a2e67a3cc6849b8857dee55fa6005ae/photo?Query=inflation&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=8106&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Jenny Kane</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Are the benefits taxable?</h2>
<p>A growing portion of Social Security benefits are taxed in the same way as ordinary income, except at different threshold with various caps and percentages. <a href="https://www.socialsecurityintelligence.com/inflation-social-security/">Only 8% of benefits were subject to taxation</a> in 1984, but that’s climbed to almost 50% in recent years. That percentage will likely continue to increase as the taxable thresholds are not adjusted for inflation. </p>
<p>For example, if an individual filer’s income, including benefits, is below US$25,000, <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/dont-forget-social-security-benefits-may-be-taxable">none of that is taxed</a>. But up to 50% of a person’s benefits may be taxed at incomes of $25,000 to $34,000. After that, up to 85% of their benefits may be taxed. </p>
<p>Such a big increase in Social Security benefits likely means some people who paid no tax will now have to pay some, while others will see larger increases in their tax liability. </p>
<h2>4. Why does the government adjust benefits for inflation?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-30/soaring-inflation-to-hit-britain-harder-than-any-other-major-economy-boe-warns">Rapid gains of inflation</a>, like the kind the U.S. and many other countries are currently experiencing, can have significant impacts on the finances of households and businesses. </p>
<p>For example, it might mean seniors cutting back on heating or food. Government policies generally try to account for this to reduce the negative impacts that rising prices can have on those with limited or fixed resources.</p>
<p>In addition, reducing the impacts of price changes creates a more efficient and fair allocation of resources and reduces the arbitrary outcomes that would otherwise occur.</p>
<h2>5. What other government programs typically get a COLA?</h2>
<p>Other government programs and benefits also increase to account for inflation. </p>
<p>The U.S. Department of Agriculture <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/allotment/COLA">estimates the cost of its Thrifty Food Plan</a> each June and adjusts Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP benefits – formerly known as food stamps – in October of each year. Beginning in October 2022, food stamp benefits <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/30/politics/snap-food-stamps-benefits-inflation-increase/index.html">rose by 12.5%</a>, which helps make up for the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL#0">largest increases in food prices since the 1970s</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, the federal <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/topics/poverty-economic-mobility/poverty-guidelines">poverty level is adjusted</a> for changes in the consumer price index annually by the Department of Health and Human Services, an adjustment that affects a number of government-provided benefits, such as housing benefits, health insurance and others, including SNAP benefits.</p>
<h2>6. Does the tax system also adjust for inflation?</h2>
<p>While some aspects of the tax code adjust for inflation, others do not. </p>
<p>For example, income tax bracket thresholds, the size of the standard deduction, alternative minimum tax parameters and estate tax provisions <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-provides-tax-inflation-adjustments-for-tax-year-2022">all increase annually for inflation</a>. That means come tax filing season next year, U.S. tax filers will likely see big changes in all these items. </p>
<p>But examples of provisions that are not adjusted for inflation include the maximum value of the child tax credit and the $10,000 cap on the deduction of state and local taxes. In addition, the threshold that determines who is liable for the net investment income tax – the additional 3.8% tax on investment and passive income for taxpayers above a certain income level – doesn’t adjust, which means each year more individuals are subject to it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192371/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John W. Diamond does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Social Security is increasing benefits by 8.7%, beginning in January 2023, to offset the surging cost of living in the US.John W. Diamond, Director of the Center for Public Finance at the Baker Institute, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1895122022-09-15T12:22:54Z2022-09-15T12:22:54ZHow to keep kids curious – 5 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484447/original/file-20220913-4351-sof8u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C15%2C5073%2C3387&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could schools be putting a damper on children's curiosity?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/mixed-race-girl-looking-in-curiously-royalty-free-image/88751977?adppopup=true">Jose Luis Pelaez Inc via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Kids are naturally curious. But various forces in the environment can dampen their curiosity over time. Can anything be done to keep kids’ curiosity alive? For answers to this question, The Conversation U.S. turned to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1fr7ljcAAAAJ&hl=en">Perry Zurn</a>, a philosophy professor at American University and author of three books on curiosity, including “<a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262047036/curious-minds/">Curious Minds: The Power of Connection</a>,” which was released in September 2022.</em></p>
<h2>1. Is curiosity abundant at birth?</h2>
<p>Curiosity is a natural capacity, present in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/cercor/bhab080">nonhuman animals</a> as well as in humans from a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/desc.12629">very young age</a>. Beings of all sorts seek information, explore their environments and innovate new ways of solving problems. Creatures big and small, from elephants to bees, engage in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/npp.2017.108">exploratory foraging</a> as they discover new territory and resources, while <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1620739114">monkeys</a> – and even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2016.0414">cells and viruses</a> – innovate new behaviors.</p>
<p>Among human beings, most people – scholars and nonscholars alike – have a sense that children are especially curious. Psychologist <a href="https://psychology.williams.edu/profile/sengel/">Susan Engel</a> validates this sense in her book “<a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674736757">The Hungry Mind</a>.” Engel observes children’s curiosity at work in different environments, from preschool nature walks and middle school science labs to asking questions around the dinner table. Her research confirms that children are bursting with curiosity, expressed in the things they touch, the way they talk and how they interact with others. But what happens to that curiosity as we age?</p>
<p>Some people I meet bemoan the loss of their childlike wonder, while others are proud to have maintained or expanded it. What might explain the difference?</p>
<h2>2. What kills kids’ curiosity?</h2>
<p>While research clearly shows children have a high interest in <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442217331/The-Philosophical-Child">asking questions</a>, that interest may dull over time, particularly in school settings. One study found that preschoolers ask an average of 26 questions an hour at home, but <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/young-children-learning/oclc/11114218">less than two per hour at school</a>. Another study showed that fifth grade students, on average, expressed curiosity – via question asking, directed gazing or object manipulation – <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674736757">less than once every two hours</a>. Why? </p>
<p>Many things can dampen curiosity. Internet search engines and smartphones that give immediate answers limit children’s ability to sit with their questions and stew over their <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Experience-And-Education/John-Dewey/9780684838281">problems</a>. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK568743/">Parenting styles</a> that emphasize the value of questions only as a means to an end – such as correct <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/pedagogy-of-the-oppressed-9781501314162/">answers</a> – limit children’s capacity to cultivate questions for their own sake. Lastly, when schools train children to ask only specific kinds of questions in specific sorts of ways, it can limit their opportunities to <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262515108/insatiable-curiosity/">innovate</a> by constraining their interest and inquiry into narrow channels.</p>
<h2>3. How good are K-12 schools at fostering curiosity?</h2>
<p>Since teacher training focuses on conveying content and cultivating basic skills, teachers <a href="https://manifold.umn.edu/read/curiosity-studies/section/672957b4-788b-40c5-a747-f66544b641fe#conc">may not know how</a> to facilitate curiosity.</p>
<p>To make matters more complicated, educators are often up against <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2022/08/26/are-we-at-a-crisis-point-with-the-public-teacher-workforce-education-scholars-share-their-perspectives/">impossible odds</a> of growing class sizes, reduced resources and increased pressure to achieve generalized, measurable outcomes. As a result, many teachers teach “compliance” more than “curiosity,” as <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/220290/between-the-world-and-me-by-ta-nehisi-coates/">Ta-Nehisi Coates</a> puts it, reflecting on his time as a student in Baltimore schools. In his experience, it was more important for students to behave and learn the assigned material than for them to explore their interests and go out on a limb. This is especially harmful for students whose creative intelligence is already less likely to be encouraged, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/csd.0.0120">students of color</a> and students with <a href="https://manifold.umn.edu/read/curiosity-studies/section/09913fb6-4df2-4607-9192-cf745c919426#ch08/">learning differences</a>, including autism, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder or dyslexia.</p>
<p>As astrophysicist and Black feminist author <a href="https://ceps.unh.edu/person/chanda-prescod-weinstein">Chanda Prescod-Weinstein</a> emphasizes in her recent book, “<a href="https://www.boldtypebooks.com/titles/chanda-prescod-weinstein/the-disordered-cosmos/9781541724709/">The Disordered Cosmos</a>,” not everyone is encouraged to reach for – or understand – the stars. She sees Black women as being especially discouraged from their academic and scientific aspirations. </p>
<h2>4. How can parents protect their children’s curiosity?</h2>
<p>Paying attention to each child’s own style of curiosity, and instilling in them a sense of pride in that style, will do much to equip kids to maintain curiosity. While children are naturally curious, they may express and pursue their curiosity in different ways. Research indicates there are multiple <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/curious/201801/what-are-the-five-dimensions-curiosity">dimensions</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/sep/04/busybody-hunter-dancer-curiosity-curious-minds-bassett-zurn">styles</a> of curiosity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484446/original/file-20220913-4351-43kc30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A girl looks at a caterpillar on a shiny floor." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484446/original/file-20220913-4351-43kc30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484446/original/file-20220913-4351-43kc30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484446/original/file-20220913-4351-43kc30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484446/original/file-20220913-4351-43kc30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484446/original/file-20220913-4351-43kc30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484446/original/file-20220913-4351-43kc30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484446/original/file-20220913-4351-43kc30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kids have different learning styles, and so do different creatures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/surface-level-of-curious-girl-looking-at-royalty-free-image/1187823750?adppopup=true">Cavan Images via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-00985-7">study I was involved in</a>, for example, led by communications scientist <a href="https://www.asc.upenn.edu/people/faculty/david-lydon-staley-phd">David Lydon-Staley</a>, showed that people who browse Wikipedia have a tendency either to be busybodies – clicking on radically different pages; or hunters – clicking on closely connected pages. Does your child like to know everything about a few things? Or a few things about everything?</p>
<p>For the ancient Greeks, these two styles were best characterized by <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/08/739502013/the-fox-and-the-hedgehog-a-story-of-triumphs-and-tragedy">the hedgehog and the fox</a>. According to Archilochus, the hedgehog “knows one thing,” but the fox “knows many things.” Following that instinct, in my book “<a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262047036/">Curious Minds</a>,” written with neuroscientist <a href="https://directory.seas.upenn.edu/danielle-s-bassett/">Dani S. Bassett</a>, we analyze 18 different creatures, from animals to insects, and characterize their unique curiosity styles. Perhaps your child is more like an octopus, with inquisitive arms stretched out in every direction, or an inchworm, slow and steady. </p>
<h2>5. What role can colleges play?</h2>
<p>If people are to have the curiosity and creative imagination necessary to address pressing problems the world over, we will have to rethink what happens in the college classroom, and what happens <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/beyond-education">beyond it</a>. </p>
<p>Fellow philosopher of curiosity Lani Watson argues that however much colleges and universities tout a central commitment to curiosity, they continue to rely primarily on “<a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-5277-6">answers-oriented education</a>.” Over and over again, the written exam, the multiple choice test or the position paper are the gold standard by which students demonstrate that they have learned and what they have learned.</p>
<p>Asking better, more insightful and more creative questions is rarely prized in educational settings except as a means to other ends – higher grades, more published papers, more discoveries or innovations. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1521025115622777">rising</a> social pressures to work longer hours on classes, jobs and internships, and a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2018/12/the-liberal-arts-may-not-survive-the-21st-century/577876/">declining</a> investment in a liberal arts education, make questioning itself an endangered art. Few students have the time or encouragement to get curious for curiosity’s sake.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Perry Zurn receives funding from The Center for Curiosity. </span></em></p>A philosophy professor looks at the learning styles of different creatures to gain insight into curiosity among human beings.Perry Zurn, Associate Professor of Philosophy, American UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1886692022-08-29T13:38:03Z2022-08-29T13:38:03ZWhat are green jobs and how can I get one? 5 questions answered about clean energy careers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481333/original/file-20220826-16-wl02rh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C24%2C8194%2C5462&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar installation jobs are among those expected to grow in the next decade.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/working-on-installing-solar-panels-royalty-free-image/1350971530?adppopup=true">Brenda Sangi Arruda / Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>When President Joe Biden signed the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/16/biden-inflation-reduction-act-signing/">Inflation Reduction Act</a> in August 2022, he called it the “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/07/statement-by-president-biden-on-senate-passage-of-the-inflation-reduction-act/">largest investment ever</a>” to fight climate change. He also said it would lead to the creation of well-paying union jobs to help “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/19/fact-sheet-the-inflation-reduction-act-supports-workers-and-families/">reduce emissions across every sector of our economy</a>.” These jobs are also known as “clean energy jobs,” and the number of these jobs is expected to increase in the coming years as a result of the act’s <a href="https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/inflation_reduction_act_one_page_summary.pdf">US$369 billion</a> investment in energy security and climate change.</em></p>
<p><em>Here, Shaun Dougherty, an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=K3uUtzcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">expert in career and technical education</a>, answers five questions about clean energy jobs, their expected growth and what kind of education a person needs to get one.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is a ‘clean energy’ job?</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.bls.gov/green/green_definition.htm">general</a>, the term applies to any job that is related to producing goods and delivering services focused on conserving or protecting natural resources, or reducing their use.</p>
<p>So, there are jobs in manufacturing equipment for solar panel and wind turbine components. There are also sales jobs in solar energy – that is, selling solar panels to homeowners and landlords – as well as in installation, maintenance and repair in both the solar and wind industries. There is also <a href="https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/environmental-engineers.htm">growing demand for environmental engineers and scientists</a>, whose jobs include helping to design solar panels and wind turbines and determine where they are placed.</p>
<h2>2. How many green jobs will be created in the next few years?</h2>
<p>About 9 million clean energy jobs will be created over the next decade, according to an <a href="https://www.bluegreenalliance.org/site/9-million-good-jobs-from-climate-action-the-inflation-reduction-act/">analysis</a> from the Political Economy Research Institute at UMass Amherst.</p>
<p>The federal government has also projected <a href="https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2022/data-on-display/green-growth.htm">strong growth in clean energy jobs</a> in the coming decade. Many of these jobs are expected expected to be as installers and technicians for both solar and wind energy. For instance, there is a projected 68% increase in wind turbine service technician jobs, and a projected 52% increase in solar panel installation jobs over the next decade. However, the growth in the actual number of such jobs will be relatively small: 4,700 and 6,100, respectively.</p>
<p>There is also a <a href="https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/environmental-scientists-and-specialists.htm">growing need for environmental scientists and specialists</a>, who use their knowledge of science to protect the environment and people’s health. The federal government projects there will be 7,300 new jobs in these fields over the next decade.</p>
<h2>3. How much do these jobs pay?</h2>
<p>Clean energy jobs pay <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/advancing-inclusion-through-clean-energy-jobs/">at least $2 more per hour</a> – or nearly 10% more – than the national average of $23.86 per hour.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2022/data-on-display/green-growth.htm">Estimates</a> from the Department of Labor show that across occupations, clean energy jobs pay well. For example, solar installers could make about $47,000 per year, wind turbine technicians about $52,000 annually and engineers nearly $100,000. </p>
<h2>4. What kind of education do you need to get a green job?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-24/green-jobs-have-higher-wages-lower-entry-barriers">Not a whole lot</a> beyond high school. Solar installation jobs usually require only a high school diploma. Turbine technicians need more advanced training, but that’s usually a certificate that can be earned at a technical or community college. The highest-paying jobs as environmental scientists or engineers, however, require a two- or four-year college degree. </p>
<p>Also, college isn’t the only way to get a clean energy job. You can get a clean energy job through <a href="https://www.jobcorps.gov/train">Job Corps</a>, a federal program that works with young people who have had difficulty getting an education or employment. Research shows Job Corps, at least historically, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22233">boosts earnings</a> for the young people it serves.</p>
<p>It <a href="https://www.k12climateaction.org/blog/brief-on-policy-principles-for-green-school-infrastructure-and-cte">might be difficult</a>, however, to get the kind of technical education you need from your local high school. It <a href="https://www.greenenergytimes.org/2018/08/massachusetts-schools-awarded-funds-for-clean-energy-education-programs/">also depends on where you live</a>.</p>
<h2>5. Where’s the best place to live to get a green job?</h2>
<p>Right now, there are more green jobs in the places that are set up to supply renewable energy and that have created incentives to build the infrastructure for clean energy. For solar, this means <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/solar-jobs-state-states">famously sunny places</a> like California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Texas, Florida and Colorado. It also includes states that have created incentives to increase the potential for clean energy use, such as North Carolina, New York and Massachusetts. <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/what-are-top-10-states-clean-energy-jobs">Texas is top for wind energy</a> employment, but other Plains states, like the Dakotas, also fare well.</p>
<p>A recent report from the Brookings Institution – a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington, D.C. – highlighted where it is cheapest to produce wind and solar energy. This includes areas where there <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-renewable-energy-jobs-can-uplift-fossil-fuel-communities-and-remake-climate-politics/">a lot of jobs in nonrenewable energies</a>, as opposed to clean energy.</p>
<p>This is a hopeful sign. It suggests that clean energy jobs may be coming to areas that might otherwise lose out as the country moves toward greater reliance on renewable energy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun M. Dougherty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Jobs in the clean energy industry are expected to grow thanks to a historic federal investment in fighting climate change. Many of the jobs have low barriers to entry, an expert says.Shaun M. Dougherty, Professor of Education & Policy, Boston CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1895002022-08-26T19:17:21Z2022-08-26T19:17:21ZFBI’s Mar-a-Lago search warrant affidavit reveals how Trump may have compromised national security – a legal expert answers 5 key questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481357/original/file-20220826-14-tztka9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C26%2C5967%2C3846&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The seal of the Federal Bureau of Investigation is seen outside of its headquarters in Washington, DC on August 15, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-seal-of-the-federal-bureau-of-investigation-is-seen-news-photo/1242529976?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Justice Department on Aug. 26, 2022, <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/64872441/102/1/united-states-v-sealed-search-warrant/">released an affidavit</a> written by an FBI special agent that was used to obtain a court order for the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/23/trump-records-mar-a-lago-fbi/">FBI’s search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida estate</a> for documents related to national defense and other government records.</em> </p>
<p><em>Large portions of the affidavit were blocked from public view, leaving many questions about details of the investigation. Nonetheless, what is visible shows the FBI had solid evidence that Trump took documents critical to national security to his Mar-a-Lago estate.</em></p>
<p><em>Florida federal Judge Bruce Reinhart had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-justice-dept-poised-release-redacted-affidavit-trump-search-2022-08-26/">ordered on Aug. 22, 2022, that the affidavit</a> – which typically contains key details about an investigation to justify a search warrant – <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.617854/gov.uscourts.flsd.617854.99.0_11.pdf">be made public</a> following a lawsuit from media organizations and other groups. But Reinhart <a href="https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1016198/judge-orders-fbi-to-release-redacted-affidavit-behind-search-of-trumps-mar-a">also said in his order that he would allow</a> the Justice Department <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/64872441/98/united-states-v-sealed-search-warrant/">to first redact</a> some of the affidavit’s most critical information, like “the identities of witnesses, law enforcement agents, and uncharged parties … the investigation’s strategy, direction, scope, sources, and methods, and … grand jury information.”</em></p>
<p><em>It’s the latest development in the legal conflict over government documents, including national security material, that Trump has kept in violation of the law, according to the affidavit. The document shows that there is what the law calls “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/probable_cause">probable cause</a>” to believe that Trump committed various crimes, including violation of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/you-dont-have-to-be-a-spy-to-violate-the-espionage-act-and-other-crucial-facts-about-the-law-trump-may-have-broken-188708">Espionage Act</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>We asked Georgia State University <a href="http://www.clarkcunningham.org/">legal scholar</a> and <a href="https://www.yalelawjournal.org/forum/apple-and-the-american-revolution-remembering-why-we-have-the-fourth-amendment-1">search warrant expert</a> Clark Cunningham to answer five key questions to help explain this new development.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is a search warrant affidavit?</h2>
<p>Let’s start with <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/search_warrant">a search warrant, which is a court order</a> authorizing government agents to enter property without an owner’s permission to search for evidence of a crime. The warrant further authorizes agents to seize and take away such evidence if they find it. </p>
<p>In order to get a search warrant, the government must provide the court one or more statements made under oath that explain why the government believes a crime has been committed, establishing that there is sufficient justification for issuing the warrant. If the statement is written, it is <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/affidavit">called an affidavit</a>. This is why the first sentence of the unsealed affidavit has the words “being duly sworn” following the blacked-out name of the agent making the statement.</p>
<h2>2. What’s the most important takeway from this affidavit?</h2>
<p>Given that a lot of the information on the affidavit has been blacked out, probably the most telling new information is that the FBI agent says that a review of Mar-a-Lago documents the government had already obtained <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/politics/doj-investigation-trump-documents-timeline/index.html">by grand jury subpoena earlier this year</a> were marked in a way that would clearly indicate national security was at risk.</p>
<h2>3. How does the affidavit show national security was at risk?</h2>
<p>The affidavit reveals that some of the documents stored at Mar-a-Lago were <a href="https://www.allacronyms.com/HCS/Humint_Control_System">marked HCS</a>, indicating they were intelligence derived from clandestine human sources – or what we would think of as secret intelligence information provided by undercover agents or sources within foreign governments. If the identity of agents or sources is revealed, their intelligence value is compromised and, even, their lives may be at risk.</p>
<p>There were also documents marked FISA, meaning they were collected under the <a href="https://bja.ojp.gov/program/it/privacy-civil-liberties/authorities/statutes/1286">Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act</a>, documents <a href="https://csrc.nist.gov/glossary/term/noforn">marked NOFORN,</a> meaning that the information cannot be released in any form to a foreign government, as well as documents <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/Signals-Intelligence/Overview/">marked SI</a>, meaning they were derived from monitoring foreign governments’ communications.</p>
<h2>4. Is it common for a court to unseal an affidavit while an investigation is underway?</h2>
<p>Because a search warrant affidavit usually lays out the government’s case and identifies witnesses, it is <a href="https://www.timesunion.com/state/article/Why-search-warrants-rarely-unsealed-17369233.php">very rare for a search warrant affidavit to be unsealed</a> if there is an ongoing criminal investigation. That’s why there were so many redactions in the version of the affidavit that was released. If such an affidavit is unsealed, it’s most often later in the process, when criminal charges are actually filed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A female security guard or police officer is seen walking outside of a courthouse." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Security officers guard the entrance to the federal courthouse in West Palm Beach on Aug. 18, 2022, as the court holds a hearing to determine if the Trump affidavit should be unsealed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/security-officers-guard-the-entrance-to-the-paul-g-rogers-federal-picture-id1242577909?s=2048x2048">Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. What does this say about the investigation and the seriousness of Trump’s alleged crimes?</h2>
<p>The information revealed in the affidavit indicates that the country’s national security and the safety of intelligence agents were possibly put at severe risk when national defense documents were apparently stored in a room at a resort in Florida. </p>
<p>It’s a little confusing – there’s been much <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/13/trump-warrant-classified-answers/">talk in the media about classified information</a>. Improper storing of classified information is a crime, but that is not what is being investigated here. A much more serious crime under the Espionage Act is at stake. </p>
<p>Even someone like a former president who initially had lawful possession of national defense information commits a felony by <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793">retaining that information after the government demands its return</a>. Trump can not hang on to national defense documents even if, while president, he “declassified” such documents, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/18/politics/trump-claim-standing-order-declassify-nonsense-patently-false-former-officials/index.html">he claims he did</a>. </p>
<p>It’s been documented that a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/25/us/chinese-zhang-mar-a-lago.html">Chinese spy</a> penetrated Mar-a-Lago while Trump was president. It is an unsecured location. If a foreign spy got into that room and walked out with information disclosing U.S. undercover agents around the world, or how we have been monitoring and collecting classified information around the world, I see the potential harm as staggering.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clark D. Cunningham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A search warrant expert breaks down the affidavit the FBI used to search Mar-a-Lago, and the national security concerns it presents.Clark D. Cunningham, W. Lee Burge Chair in Law & Ethics; Director, National Institute for Teaching Ethics & Professionalism, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1883372022-08-10T12:18:00Z2022-08-10T12:18:00ZWhat is a semiconductor? An electrical engineer explains how these critical electronic components work and how they are made<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478126/original/file-20220808-4922-kdvkjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=100%2C38%2C5026%2C3474&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A silicon disc, or 'wafer,' yields dozens of semiconductor chips.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_Wafer_of_the_Latest_D-Wave_Quantum_Computers_(39188583425).jpg#/media/File:A_Wafer_of_the_Latest_D-Wave_Quantum_Computers_(39188583425).jpg">Steve Jurvetson/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Semiconductors are a critical part of almost every modern electronic device, and the vast majority of semiconductors are made in Tawain. Increasing concerns over the reliance on Taiwan for semiconductors – especially given the tenuous relationship between Taiwan and China – led the U.S. Congress to pass the CHIPS and Science act in late July 2022. The act provides more than US$50 billion in subsidies to boost U.S. semiconductor production and has been widely covered in the news. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kZEP5kcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Trevor Thornton</a>, an electrical engineer who studies semiconductors, explains what these devices are and how they are made.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478129/original/file-20220808-17-lmrac1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two shiny black discs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478129/original/file-20220808-17-lmrac1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478129/original/file-20220808-17-lmrac1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478129/original/file-20220808-17-lmrac1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478129/original/file-20220808-17-lmrac1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478129/original/file-20220808-17-lmrac1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478129/original/file-20220808-17-lmrac1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478129/original/file-20220808-17-lmrac1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thin, round slices of silicon crystals, called wafers, are the starting point for most semiconductor chips.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Siliziumwafer.JPG#/media/File:Siliziumwafer.JPG">Hebbe/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. What is a semiconductor?</h2>
<p>Generally speaking, the term semiconductor refers to a material – like silicon – that can conduct electricity much better than an insulator such as glass, but not as well as metals like copper or aluminum. But when people are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/briefing/semiconductor-bill-congress-biden.html">talking about semiconductors today</a>, they are usually referring to semiconductor chips.</p>
<p>These chips are typically made from thin slices of silicon with complex components laid out on them in specific patterns. These patterns control the flow of current using electrical switches – called transistors – in much the same way you control the electrical current in your home by flipping a switch to turn on a light. </p>
<p>The difference between your house and a semiconductor chip is that semiconductor switches are entirely electrical – no mechanical components to flip – and the chips contain <a href="https://futurism.com/ibm-created-a-chip-the-size-of-a-fingernail-that-holds-30-billion-transistors">tens of billions of switches</a> in an area not much larger than the size of a fingernail.</p>
<h2>2. What do semiconductors do?</h2>
<p>Semiconductors are how electronic devices process, store and receive information. For instance, memory chips store data and software as binary code, digital chips manipulate the data based on the software instructions, and wireless chips receive data from high-frequency radio transmitters and convert them into electrical signals. These different chips work together under the control of software. Different software applications perform very different tasks, but they all work by switching the transistors that control the current.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478130/original/file-20220808-18-gedffp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing more than a dozen layers of material." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478130/original/file-20220808-18-gedffp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478130/original/file-20220808-18-gedffp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478130/original/file-20220808-18-gedffp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478130/original/file-20220808-18-gedffp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478130/original/file-20220808-18-gedffp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1110&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478130/original/file-20220808-18-gedffp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1110&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478130/original/file-20220808-18-gedffp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1110&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This schematic of a semiconductor chip shows many different materials in different colors and the complicated layering involved in producing a modern chip.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cmos-chip_structure_in_2000s_(en).svg#/media/File:Cmos-chip_structure_in_2000s_(en).svg">Cepheiden/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. How do you build a semiconductor chip?</h2>
<p>The starting point for the vast majority of semiconductors is a thin slice of silicon called a wafer. Today’s wafers are the size of dinner plates and are cut from <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/materials-science/silicon-wafer">single silicon crystals</a>. Manufacturers <a href="https://semiengineering.com/knowledge_centers/manufacturing/process/ion-implants/">add elements like phosphorus and boron</a> in a thin layer at the surface of the silicon to increase the chip’s conductivity. It is in this surface layer where the transistor switches are made. </p>
<p>The transistors are built by adding thin layers of conductive metals, insulators and more silicon to the entire wafer, sketching out patterns on these layers using a complicated process <a href="https://semiengineering.com/knowledge_centers/manufacturing/lithography/">called lithography</a> and then selectively removing these layers using computer-controlled plasmas of highly reactive gases to leave specific patterns and structures. Because the transistors are so small, it is much easier to add materials in layers and then carefully remove unwanted material than it is to place microscopically thin lines of metal or insulators directly onto the chip. By depositing, patterning and etching layers of different materials dozens of times, semiconductor manufacturers can create chips with tens of billions of transistors per square inch.</p>
<h2>4. How are chips today different from the early chips?</h2>
<p>There are many differences, but the most important is probably the increase in the number of transistors per chip.</p>
<p>Among the earliest commercial applications for semiconductor chips were <a href="https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/object-groups/handheld-electronic-calculators">pocket calculators</a>, which became widely available in the 1970s. These early chips contained a few thousand transistors. In 1989 Intel introduced the <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/25-microchips-that-shook-the-world">the first semiconductors to exceed a million transistors on a single chip</a>. Today, the largest chips contain more than 50 billion transistors. This trend is described by what is known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-silicon-pushed-to-its-limits-what-will-power-the-next-electronics-revolution-46287">Moore’s law</a>, which says that the number of transistors on a chip will double approximately every 18 months.</p>
<p><iframe id="Gk2KX" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Gk2KX/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Moore’s law has held up for five decades. But in recent years, the semiconductor industry has <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-silicon-pushed-to-its-limits-what-will-power-the-next-electronics-revolution-46287">had to overcome major challenges</a> – mainly, how to continue shrinking the size of transistors – to continue this pace of advancement.</p>
<p>One solution was to switch from flat, two-dimensional layers to three-dimensional layering with <a href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/aelc/2014/365689/">fin-shaped ridges of silicon</a> projecting up above the surface. These 3D chips significantly increased the number of transistors on a chip and are now in <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/03/18/2195023/0/en/FinFet-Technology-Market-is-Anticipated-to-Touch-USD-268-66-Million-by-2025-Growing-at-40-3-CAGR-Market-Research-Future-MRFR.html">widespread use</a>, but they’re also much more difficult to manfacture.</p>
<h2>5. Do more complicated chips require more sophisticated factories?</h2>
<p>Simply put, yes, the more complicated the chip, the more complicated – and more costly – the factory. </p>
<p>There was a time when almost every U.S. semiconductor company built and maintained its own factories. But today, a new foundry can <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2022/06/03/see-taiwan-semiconductors-north-phoenix-office/7498673001/">cost more than $10 billion to build</a>. Only the largest companies can afford that kind of investment. Instead, the majority of semiconductor companies send their designs to independent foundries for manufacturing. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and GlobalFoundries, headquartered in New York, are two examples of multinational foundries that build chips for other companies. They have the expertise and economies of scale to invest in the hugely expensive technology required to produce next-generation semiconductors. </p>
<p>Ironically, while the transistor and semiconductor chip were invented in the U.S., no state-of-the-art semiconductor foundries are currently on American soil. The U.S. has been here before in the 1980s when there were concerns that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/28/business/japan-s-big-lead-in-memory-chips.html">Japan would dominate the global memory business</a>. But with the newly passed CHIPS act, Congress has provided the incentives and opportunities for next-generation semiconductors to be manufactured in the U.S. </p>
<p>Perhaps the chips in your next iPhone will be “designed by Apple in California, built in the USA.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Trevor Thornton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Semiconductor chips are electronic devices that store and process information. Today they can contain billions of microscopic switches on a chip smaller than a fingernail.Trevor Thornton, Professor of Electrical Engineering, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882142022-08-04T20:44:37Z2022-08-04T20:44:37ZMonkeypox vaccines: A virologist answers 6 questions about how they work, who can get them and how well they prevent infection<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477723/original/file-20220804-20-4y65ta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=86%2C113%2C3683%2C2351&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Jynneos monkeypox vaccine provides strong protection against infection but is in short supply.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vial-of-the-jynneos-monkeypox-vaccine-sits-on-a-table-at-a-news-photo/1412754952?adppopup=true">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Monkeypox isn’t going to be the next COVID-19. But with the outbreak having bloomed to <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html">thousands of infections, with cases in nearly every state</a>, on Aug. 4, 2022, the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/as-monkeypox-spreads-u-s-declares-a-health-emergency/ar-AA10j7ha?cvid=d63b6a053efb410ca447e51c2fcde7cc">U.S. declared monkeypox a national public health emergency</a>. One reason health experts did not expect monkeypox to become so widespread is that the U.S. had previously approved two vaccines for the virus. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Dxbq8hkAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Maureen Ferran</a>, a virologist at Rochester Institute of Technology, has been keeping tabs on the two vaccines that can protect against monkeypox.</em></p>
<h2>1. What are the available monkeypox vaccines?</h2>
<p>Two vaccines are currently approved in the U.S. that can provide protection against monkeypox, the <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/jynneos">Jynneos vaccine</a> – known as Imvamune/Imvanex in Europe – and <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/75800/download">ACAM2000</a>, an older smallpox vaccine.</p>
<p>The Jynneos vaccine is produced by <a href="https://www.bavarian-nordic.com/">Bavarian Nordic</a>, a small company in Denmark. The vaccine is for the prevention of smallpox and monkeypox disease in adults ages 18 and older who are at high risk for infection with either virus. It was approved in Europe in 2013 and by the U.S. <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/131079/download">Food and Drug Administration in 2019</a>. </p>
<p>The Jynneos vaccine is given in two doses four weeks apart and <a href="https://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/monkeypox-vaccination#">contains a live vaccinia virus</a>. Vaccinia normally infects cattle and is a type of poxvirus, a family of viruses that includes smallpox and monkeypox. The virus in this vaccine has been crippled – or attenuated – so that it is no longer able to replicate in cells. </p>
<p>This vaccine is good at protecting those who are at high risk for monkeypox from getting infected before exposure and can also lessen the severity of disease post-infection. It is effective against smallpox as well as monkeypox. Until the recent monkeypox outbreak, this vaccine was primarily given to health care workers or people who have had confirmed or suspected monkeypox exposure.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477726/original/file-20220804-14-ckx2sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A circular mass of squiggly lines." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477726/original/file-20220804-14-ckx2sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477726/original/file-20220804-14-ckx2sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477726/original/file-20220804-14-ckx2sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477726/original/file-20220804-14-ckx2sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477726/original/file-20220804-14-ckx2sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477726/original/file-20220804-14-ckx2sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477726/original/file-20220804-14-ckx2sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Both the Jynneos and ACAM2000 vaccines use the vaccinia virus, shown here, to produce immunity to smallpox and monkeypox.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://phil.cdc.gov/details.aspx?pid=2143">CDC/ Cynthia Goldsmith</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/acam2000-smallpox-vaccine-questions-and-answers">ACAM2000 vaccine</a> was <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/75792/download">approved by the FDA in 2007</a> for protection against smallpox disease. This vaccine is also based on vaccinia virus, however the version of the vaccinia virus in the ACAM2000 vaccine is able to replicate in a person’s cells. Because of this, the ACAM2000 vaccine can be <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/acam2000-smallpox-vaccine-questions-and-answers#">associated with serious side effects</a>. These can include severe skin infections as well as <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/vaccine-basics/vaccination-effects.html">potentially life-threatening heart problems in vulnerable people</a>. Another potential issue with the ACAM2000 vaccine is that it is more <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/7/29/23281407/monkeypox-vaccine-acam2000-jynneos-smallpox">complicated to administer compared to a normal shot</a>.</p>
<p>The U.S. government has over <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/acam2000-smallpox-vaccine-questions-and-answers">200 million doses of ACAM2000 stockpiled</a> in case of a biological weapon attack of smallpox. But despite the adequate supply of the vaccine, ACAM2000 is not being used to vaccinate against monkeypox because of the risk of serious adverse side effects. For now, only designated U.S. military personnel and laboratory researchers who work with certain poxviruses may receive this vaccine. </p>
<h2>2. How effective are these vaccines?</h2>
<p>According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, there is not <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/considerations-for-monkeypox-vaccination.html">yet any data available</a> on the effectiveness of either vaccine in the current outbreak of monkeypox. But there is older data available from animal studies, clinical trials and studies in Africa.</p>
<p>A number of clinical trials done during the approval process for the Jynneos vaccine show that when given to a person, it <a href="https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/jynneos-smallpox-monkeypox-vaccine">triggers a strong antibody response</a> on par with the ACAM2000 vaccine. An additional study done in nonhuman primates showed that vaccinated animals that were infected with monkeypox survived <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/131078/download">80% to 100% of the time, compared with zero to 40% survival</a> in unvaccinated animals.</p>
<p>Another use of the Jynneos vaccine is as a <a href="https://www.nmhealth.org/publication/view/policy/7661/">post-exposure prophylaxis, or PEP</a>, meaning the vaccine can be effective even when given after exposure to the virus. Because the monkeypox virus incubates in a person’s body for six to 14 days, the body of someone who <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/considerations-for-monkeypox-vaccination.html">gets the Jynneos vaccine shortly after being exposed</a> will produce antibodies that can help fight off infection and protect against a serious monkeypox case.</p>
<p>The ACAM2000 data is older and less precise but shows strong protection. Researchers tested the vaccine during an outbreak of monkeypox in central Africa in the 1980s. Although the study was small and didn’t directly test vaccine efficacy, the authors concluded that unvaccinated people faced an <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/smallpox-vaccine.html">85% higher risk of being infected than vaccinated people</a>. </p>
<h2>3. Does a smallpox vaccine protect against monkeypox?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article264045516.html">According to the CDC</a>, a previous smallpox vaccination does provide some protection against monkeypox, though that <a href="https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article264045516.html#storylink=cpy">protection wanes over time</a>. Experts advise that anyone who had the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/24/1113197119/monkeypox-symptoms-prevention-vaccines-what-to-know">smallpox vaccine more than three years ago</a> and is at increased risk for monkeypox get the monkeypox vaccine.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477725/original/file-20220804-23-gdsh7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People lining up for monkeypox vaccines." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477725/original/file-20220804-23-gdsh7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477725/original/file-20220804-23-gdsh7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477725/original/file-20220804-23-gdsh7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477725/original/file-20220804-23-gdsh7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477725/original/file-20220804-23-gdsh7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477725/original/file-20220804-23-gdsh7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477725/original/file-20220804-23-gdsh7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In California and New York City, demand for vaccines has been high among at-risk communities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MonkeypoxVaccineCalifornia/acac850b3b834fe6aa41d421eb737748/photo?Query=monkeypox%20vaccine&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=59&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Who should get vaccinated?</h2>
<p>At the national level, anyone who has had close contact with an infected person, who has a weakened immune system or who had dermatitis or eczema is <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/considerations-for-monkeypox-vaccination.html">eligible for a Jynneos vaccine</a>.</p>
<p>Some state and local governments are also making vaccines available to people in communities at higher risk for monkeypox. For example, New York City is allowing men who have sex with men and who have had multiple sexual partners in the past 14 days <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/monkeypox-vaccine-nyc.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-monkeypox&region=MAIN_CONTENT_1&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc">to get vaccinated</a>. </p>
<h2>5. What is the supply like for the Jynneos vaccine?</h2>
<p>As of July 29, 2022, a little over <a href="https://aspr.hhs.gov/SNS/Pages/JYNNEOS-Distribution.aspx">300,000 doses have been shipped to points of care or administered</a>, with another 700,000 already allocated to states across the U.S. However, demand is far outpacing supply. Public health officials acknowledge that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/07/18/struggling-to-find-a-monkeypox-shot-severe-shortages-and-technical-mishaps-are-slowing-down-rollouts/?sh=2a3b4ed9e018">vaccine supply shortages have resulted in</a> long lines and clinics having to close when they run out of vaccines. The issues have been magnified by <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/13/monkeypox-vaccine-new-york-website">technical problems with online booking systems</a>, particularly in New York City. </p>
<p>To help boost supply, the U.S. has ordered nearly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/health/monkeypox-vaccine-supply.html">7 million doses of the Jynneos vaccine</a>, which are expected to arrive over the coming months. </p>
<h2>6. What about just using one dose of Jynneos?</h2>
<p>Although federal health officials advise against withholding the second dose, some places – including <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/07/25/dc-monkeypox-vaccines-first-dose/">Washington, D.C.</a>, and <a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/about/press/pr2022/monkeypox-vaccination-prioritization-first-doses.page">New York City</a> – are withholding the second dose until more become available. This strategy is being used in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-vaccination-resources/protecting-you-from-monkeypox-information-on-the-smallpox-vaccination">Britain</a> and Canada as well to vaccinate as many people as possible at least one time.</p>
<p>A previous study reported that a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0804985105">single shot</a> of the Jynneos vaccine <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1817307">protected monkeys infected with monkeypox</a> and that this protection lasted for at least two years. If this holds up in the real world, it would support withholding second doses in favor of immunizing more Americans. This would be key as many health experts expect the virus to continue spreading, furthering increasing demand of the vaccine.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188214/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maureen Ferran receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p>There are two approved monkeypox vaccines in the US. Both use a related poxvirus called vaccinia to produce an immune response that protects against smallpox and monkeypox.Maureen Ferran, Associate Professor of Biology, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1862722022-07-14T12:34:20Z2022-07-14T12:34:20ZAn expert panel has recommended against taking vitamin E or beta carotene supplements for the prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473088/original/file-20220707-16-ngb99k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=151%2C0%2C7083%2C4303&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Consuming an ample supply of fresh fruits and vegetables is still a tried and true way of getting vitamins and minerals and achieving lasting health benefits.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/cropped-shot-of-an-unrecognisable-woman-standing-royalty-free-image/1357662733?adppopup=true">PeopleImages/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force <a href="https://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/recommendation/vitamin-supplementation-to-prevent-cvd-and-cancer-preventive-medication#fullrecommendationstart">issued a recommendation statement</a> in June 2022 on the use of over-the-counter vitamin supplements. Based on its independent panel of experts’ review of existing scientific evidence, the task force recommended against using beta carotene or vitamin E supplements for the prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease, the two leading causes of mortality in the U.S.</em> </p>
<p><em>The task force’s new statement is an update to its 2014 recommendation, which drew the same conclusion. In the most recent analysis, the expert panel looked at an additional six randomized control trials for beta carotene and nine for vitamin E.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked Katherine Basbaum, a clinical dietitian specializing in cardiovascular disease, to explain what this recommendation means for the general public, particularly those who are currently or considering taking dietary supplements for the prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease. In our Q&A with Basbaum, she interprets the data behind the task force’s conclusion.</em> </p>
<h2>1. What was the basis of the task force’s recommendation?</h2>
<p>The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force evaluated and averaged the results of multiple studies looking at health outcomes associated with beta carotene and vitamin E supplements. Beta carotene is a phytonutrient – or plant chemical – with a red-orange pigment; both beta carotene and vitamin E are found in many fruits and vegetables such as carrots, sweet potatoes, kale, spinach, Swiss chard and avocados, to name a few.</p>
<p>The panel of experts concluded that with regard to the prevention of cardiovascular disease or cancer, the harms of beta carotene supplementation outweigh the benefits and that there is no net benefit of supplementation with vitamin E for those purposes. Their recommendation applies to adults who are not pregnant and excludes those who are chronically ill, are hospitalized or have a known nutritional deficiency. </p>
<p>Beta carotene and vitamin E are powerful <a href="https://www.nccih.nih.gov/health/antioxidants-in-depth">antioxidants, substances that may prevent or delay cell damage</a>. They are commonly taken as dietary supplements for their potential health and anti-aging benefits, such as to combat age-related vision loss and the inflammation associated with chronic disease. Vitamin E has also been shown to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002%2Fiub.1976">help support the immune system</a>. </p>
<p>Our bodies do require <a href="https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/VitaminA-HealthProfessional/">beta carotene and various nutrients for a variety of processes</a>, such as cell growth, vision, immune function, reproduction and the normal formation and maintenance of organs. But it is important to point out that more than 95% of the U.S. population receives <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2a.pdf">adequate levels of vitamin A, vitamin E and beta carotene</a> through the foods they consume. Therefore the average healthy adult likely does not need additional supplementation to support the processes mentioned above. </p>
<p>The task force did not focus on other potential benefits of vitamin supplementation. It noted that “there may be other benefits of some supplements that were not covered in this review owing to its focus on cardiovascular disease and cancer prevention.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472871/original/file-20220706-14-la3uyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bunch of freshly-picked carrots in a container." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472871/original/file-20220706-14-la3uyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472871/original/file-20220706-14-la3uyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472871/original/file-20220706-14-la3uyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472871/original/file-20220706-14-la3uyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472871/original/file-20220706-14-la3uyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472871/original/file-20220706-14-la3uyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472871/original/file-20220706-14-la3uyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Consumption of foods high in beta carotene and Vitamin E is considered preferable to taking supplements.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/carrots-in-bowl-royalty-free-image/522241828?adppopup=true">Roy Morsch/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. What risks did the task force point to?</h2>
<p>Based on its review of the evidence, the expert panel concluded that beta carotene supplementation likely increases <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/nejm199404143301501">the risk of lung cancer incidence</a>, particularly in those at high risk for lung cancer, such as people who smoke or who have occupational exposure to asbestos. It also found a statistically significant <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/nejm199605023341802">increased risk of death from cardiovascular disease</a> associated with beta carotene supplementation.</p>
<p>In one of the clinical trials reviewed by the task force for their recommendation statement, people who smoked or had workplace asbestos exposure were at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.8970">increased risk of lung cancer or death from heart disease</a> at doses of 20 and 30 milligrams per day of beta carotene. This dosage is higher than the standard recommendation for beta carotene supplementation, <a href="https://www.drugs.com/cons/beta-carotene.html#dosage">which ranges from 6 to 15 milligrams per day</a>. </p>
<h2>3. Why were these supplements historically considered beneficial?</h2>
<p>Antioxidants like beta carotene and vitamin E may help fight inflammation and oxidative stress, two of the primary contributors to the development of cancers and heart disease. Oxidative stress can trigger cell damage; when this happens, cells can become cancerous. </p>
<p>Since cancer and cardiovascular disease are the two leading causes of death in the U.S., it’s natural that so many people would choose to seek out dietary supplements to potentially add a boost of prevention. Additionally, since only <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1116-fruit-vegetable-consumption.html">1 in 10 Americans meet the federal recommendation</a> for fruit and vegetable intake – 1.5 to 2 cups of fruit and 2-3 cups of vegetables per day – people often turn to dietary supplements to make up for that deficiency.</p>
<p>There is strong evidence that a diet <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyw319">rich in fruits and vegetables is beneficial</a> to overall health and disease prevention. Researchers also suggest that this may be due in large part to their high antioxidant content. The antioxidant dose received by eating an abundance of foods rich in beta carotene and vitamin E are not nearly as high as the doses available in supplement form. </p>
<h2>4. Should people be concerned about taking any kind of dietary supplement?</h2>
<p>Rigorous testing is required before a drug is approved by the Food and Drug Administration. However, that is not the case with dietary supplements, which are regulated as a food, not a drug. The FDA therefore does <a href="https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/fda-101-dietary-supplements">not have the authority</a> to approve dietary supplements for safety and effectiveness – or to approve their labeling – before the supplements are sold to the public.</p>
<p>The global dietary supplements market size was <a href="https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/dietary-supplements-market">valued at US$151.9 billion in 2021</a>. According to data from the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, an estimated 60% of U.S. adults were taking some form of dietary supplement, including vitamins, minerals, multivitamins, botanicals and herbs, probiotics, nutritional powders and more.</p>
<p>Consumers should <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-dietary-supplement-youre-taking-could-be-tainted-with-prescription-medications-and-dangerous-hidden-ingredients-according-to-a-new-study-181418">be cautious when buying and consuming dietary supplements</a>, as they may contain ingredients that could negatively interact with a prescribed medication or medical condition. It is also worth noting that products containing hidden drugs are also sometimes falsely marketed as “dietary supplements,” which can further put consumers at risk. </p>
<p>This year, the FDA began working to strengthen the regulation of dietary supplements and has <a href="https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/draft-guidance-industry-policy-regarding-certain-new-dietary-ingredients-and-dietary-supplements">drafted a proposal</a> to amend its current policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186272/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Basbaum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the popular belief that vitamin E and beta carotene supplements help prevent heart disease and cancer, the latest research suggests they do not – but the supplements do have potential risks.Katherine Basbaum, Clinical Dietitian, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1830082022-05-12T22:33:48Z2022-05-12T22:33:48ZSay hello to Sagittarius A*, the black hole at the center of the Milky Way galaxy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462875/original/file-20220512-14-m27nc1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=107%2C83%2C7257%2C4189&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This image shows Sagittarius A*, the black hole at the center of the Milky Way galaxy. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://eventhorizontelescope.org/blog/astronomers-reveal-first-image-black-hole-heart-our-galaxy">EHT Collaboration</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>On May 12, 2022, astronomers on the Event Horizon Telescope team <a href="https://eventhorizontelescope.org/blog/astronomers-reveal-first-image-black-hole-heart-our-galaxy">released an image of a black hole called Sagittarius A*</a> that lies at the center of the Milky Way galaxy. Chris Impey, an astronomer at the University of Arizona, explains how the team got this image and why it is such a big deal.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is Sagittarius A*?</h2>
<p>Sagittarius A* sits at the the center of our Milky Way galaxy, in the direction of the Sagittarius constellation. For decades, astronomers have been <a href="https://armaghplanet.com/karl-jansky-the-father-of-radio-astronomy.html">measuring blasts of radio waves</a> from an extremely compact source there.</p>
<p>In the 1980s, two teams of astronomers started tracking the motions of stars near this mysterious source of radio waves. They saw stars whirling around a dark object at speeds up to a third of the speed of light. Their motions suggested that at the center of the Milky Way was a black hole <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1086/592738">4 million times the mass of the Sun</a>. Reinhard Genzel and Andrea Ghez later shared the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2020/summary/">Nobel Prize in Physics</a> for this discovery.</p>
<p>The size of a black hole is defined by its <a href="https://www.space.com/black-holes-event-horizon-explained.html">event horizon</a> – a distance from the center of the black hole within which nothing can escape. Scientists had previously been able to calculate that Sagittarius A* is 16 million miles (26 million kilometers) in diameter.</p>
<p>The Milky Way’s black hole is huge compared to the <a href="https://astronomy.com/news/2021/09/what-are-stellar-mass-black-holes">black holes left behind when massive stars die</a>. But astronomers think there are supermassive black holes at the center of nearly all galaxies. Compared to most of these, Sagittarius A* is meager and unremarkable.</p>
<h2>2. What does the new image show?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462875/original/file-20220512-14-m27nc1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=107%2C83%2C7257%2C4189&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image showing a donut-shaped cloud of reddish-orange gas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462875/original/file-20220512-14-m27nc1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=107%2C83%2C7257%2C4189&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462875/original/file-20220512-14-m27nc1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462875/original/file-20220512-14-m27nc1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462875/original/file-20220512-14-m27nc1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462875/original/file-20220512-14-m27nc1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462875/original/file-20220512-14-m27nc1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462875/original/file-20220512-14-m27nc1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s impossible to take a direct image of a black hole because no light can escape its gravity. But it is possible to measure the radio waves emitted by the gas that surrounds a black hole.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://eventhorizontelescope.org/blog/astronomers-reveal-first-image-black-hole-heart-our-galaxy">EHT Collaboration</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Black holes themselves are completely dark, since nothing, not even light, can escape their gravity. But black holes are surrounded by clouds of gas, and astronomers can measure this gas to infer images of the black holes within. The central dark region in the image is a shadow cast by the black hole onto the gas. The bright ring is the gas itself glowing. The bright spots in the ring show areas of hotter gas that may one day fall into the black hole. </p>
<p>Some of the gas visible in the image is actually behind Sagittarius A*. Light from that gas is being bent by the powerful gravity of the black hole toward Earth. This effect, called <a href="https://earthsky.org/space/what-is-gravitational-lensing-einstein-ring/">gravitational lensing</a>, is a core prediction of <a href="https://vis.sciencemag.org/generalrelativity/">general relativity</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462891/original/file-20220512-10218-78uxmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A red mass of gas and stars at the center of the Milky Way." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462891/original/file-20220512-10218-78uxmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462891/original/file-20220512-10218-78uxmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462891/original/file-20220512-10218-78uxmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462891/original/file-20220512-10218-78uxmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462891/original/file-20220512-10218-78uxmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462891/original/file-20220512-10218-78uxmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462891/original/file-20220512-10218-78uxmx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Galactic cores, like the center of the Milky Way seen in this photo, are full of gas and debris, making it very hard to get any direct images of the stars or black holes there.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasamarshall/48903707543/in/photolist-2hvshtr-2ndE1xx-2n1dcaM-28yz69J-2miK8fB-2mGGtrb-2maPoRT-2mGLCXm-2mw7HYc-2mPV9tG-Q92K4K-2jKs7Gn-2hn6G22-7eLryh-2jC1xCg-2mnUcrn-2mLh5cj-JxJ7be-2mtMvaE-2kE3t2z-2m74ZcB-2kyX69B-2m251Hc-CMxXkS-K4F2jc-GN1Bku-JgNddt-23QYYhw-2hNmN6G-RwLqLM-2huWAyT-QJQ4o6-B8gBjZ-2gUfsHN-2jbsvYR-QhWA5d-2i9UMm7-2gbPbvV-2aPQ2ez-2fa6n57-2gKPP7W-2ioJdhF-2mQBHJB-2f33vn7-2hJMvxS-YafGbq-2kmqFa7-2m3dZde-22hY3QU-23XHKpW/">NASA/JPL-Caltech</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. What went into producing this image?</h2>
<p>Supermassive black holes are extremely hard to measure. They are far away and shrouded by the gas and dust that clogs the center of galaxies. They are also relatively small compared to the vastness of space. From where Sagittarius A* sits, 26,000 light years away at the center of the Milky Way, only 1 in 10 billion photons of visible light can reach Earth – most are absorbed by gas in the way. Radio waves pass through gas much more easily than visible light, so astronomers measured the radio emissions from the gas surrounding the black hole. The orange colors in the image are representations of those radio waves.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462890/original/file-20220512-16-dmak1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Lines connecting point on the globe connecting eight different areas across the Earth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462890/original/file-20220512-16-dmak1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462890/original/file-20220512-16-dmak1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462890/original/file-20220512-16-dmak1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462890/original/file-20220512-16-dmak1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462890/original/file-20220512-16-dmak1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462890/original/file-20220512-16-dmak1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462890/original/file-20220512-16-dmak1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The researchers used eight telescopes from around the globe – located at the points where the white lines intersect – to act as a single, massive telescope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1SVCkvW9yoUEELzOQISQlvo9lgQUeETUq">ESO/L. Calçada</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The team used <a href="https://eventhorizontelescope.org/array">eight radio telescopes spread across the globe</a> to collect data on the black hole over the course of five nights in 2017. Every night generated so much data that the team couldn’t send it through the internet – they had to ship physical hard drives to where they processed the data. </p>
<p>Because black holes are so hard to see, there is a lot of uncertainty in the data the telescopes collect. To turn it all into an accurate image, team used <a href="https://vis.sciencemag.org/generalrelativity/">supercomputers to produce millions of different images</a>, each one a mathematically viable version of the black hole based off the data collected and the laws of physics. They then blended all of these images together to produce the final, beautiful, accurate image. The processing time was equivalent to running 2,000 laptops at full speed for a year.</p>
<h2>4. Why is the new image such a big deal?</h2>
<p>In 2019, the Event Horizon Telescope team released the <a href="https://www.space.com/first-black-hole-photo-by-event-horizon-telescope.html">first image of a black hole</a> – this one at the center of the galaxy M87. The black hole at the center of this galaxy, named M87*, is a behemoth 2,000 times larger than Sagittarius A* and 7 billion times the mass of the Sun. But because Sagittarius A* is 2,000 times closer to Earth than M87*, the Event Horizon Telescope was able to observe both black holes at a similar resolution – giving astronomers a chance to learn about the universe by comparing the two.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462889/original/file-20220512-12-m1sdnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two side by side images of red, donut-shaped clouds of gas surrounding black holes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462889/original/file-20220512-12-m1sdnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462889/original/file-20220512-12-m1sdnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462889/original/file-20220512-12-m1sdnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462889/original/file-20220512-12-m1sdnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462889/original/file-20220512-12-m1sdnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462889/original/file-20220512-12-m1sdnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462889/original/file-20220512-12-m1sdnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">M87*, on the left, is 2,000 times bigger than Sagittarius A*, on the right. The thin white circles indicate sizes of orbits of planets in the solar system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1JXzExotCHcUUykXbYssBUYLkLW-BIGxR">EHT collaboration (acknowledgment: Lia Medeiros, xkcd)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The similarity of the two images is striking because small stars and small galaxies look and behave very differently than large stars or galaxies. Black holes are the only objects in existence that only answer to one law of nature – gravity. And <a href="https://news.arizona.edu/story/black-hole-scientist-wherever-we-look-we-should-see-donuts">gravity does not care about scale</a>.</p>
<p>For the last few decades, astronomers have thought that there are massive black holes at the center of <a href="https://hubblesite.org/contents/news-releases/1997/news-1997-01.html">almost every galaxy</a>. While M87* is an unusually huge black hole, Sagittarius A* is likely pretty similar to many of the hundreds of billions of black holes at the center of other galaxies in the universe. </p>
<h2>5. What scientific questions can this answer?</h2>
<p>There is a lot more science to be done from the data the team collected. </p>
<p>One interesting avenue of inquiry stems from the fact that the gas surrounding Sagittarius A* is moving at close to the speed of light. Sagittarius A* is relatively small, and matter <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/science/20220512-scientists-unveil-image-of-black-hole-at-milky-way-s-centre">trickles into it very slowly</a> – if it were the size of a human, it would consume the mass of a single grain of rice every million years. But by taking many images, it would be possible to watch the flow of matter around and into the black hole in real time. This would allow astrophysicists to study how black holes consume matter and grow.</p>
<p>A picture is worth a thousand words, and this new image has already generated <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/2041-8205/page/Focus_on_First_Sgr_A_Results">10 scientific papers</a>. I expect there will be many more to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Impey receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Sagittarius A* is a massive black hole at the center of the Milky Way. Now that astronomers have imaged it, they can begin to learn more about black holes within other galaxies across the universe.Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1796122022-03-25T12:19:33Z2022-03-25T12:19:33Z2020 census miscounted Americans – 4 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453610/original/file-20220322-17-1ukv0eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C0%2C5157%2C3448&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Census takers went door to door in 2020, as in past years, seeking to make the count as accurate as possible.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/2020CensusDoorKnockers/0075ed39582247b5a577b989138e5fa7/photo">AP Photo/John Raoux</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>_The census conducted in the U.S. every 10 years is meant to count everyone. But it doesn’t actually count everyone.</p>
<p><em>After every census, the U.S. Census Bureau reports how well it did at counting every person in the country. In 2020, as in past years, the census <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/u-s-census-bureau-report-finds-racial-gap-in-2020-population-count">didn’t get a completely accurate count</a>, according to the bureau’s own reporting. The official census number reported more non-Hispanic whites and people of Asian backgrounds in the U.S. than there actually were. And it reported too few Blacks, Hispanics and <a href="https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/special-reports/2022/02/21/census-historically-undercounted-indigenous-population-wisconsin/6570741001">Native Americans</a> who live on reservations.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation U.S. asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BHtyLUQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Aggie Yellow Horse</a>, a sociologist and demographer at Arizona State University, to explain why, and how, the census misses people, and how it’s possible to assess who wasn’t counted.</em>_</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person wearing a mask and a face shield writes on a clipboard while talking with a person in a car" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Census workers found their time and ability to connect with people limited by the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CensusMontanaHouseSeat/3c04be6e29914360bc2b1e2b11609eab/photo">AP Photo/Matthew Brown</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Who gets missed in the census?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2019/demo/2020-brief.html">people most commonly missed</a> are those with low income, people who rent or don’t have homes at all, people who live in rural areas and people who don’t speak or read English well. Often, these are people of color – Black Americans; Indigenous peoples; or people of Hispanic, Asian or Pacific Islander backgrounds.</p>
<p>Because of their living situations, these people can be hard for census takers to track down in the first place. And they may be more reluctant to participate because of concerns <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/decade/2020/planning-management/plan/final-analysis/2020-report-cbams-study-survey.html">about confidentiality, fear of repercussions and distrust of government</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the U.S. Census Bureau tries to count everyone, aiming <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/02/census-bureau-reaches-native-hawaiians-and-pacific-islanders-through-music.html">targeted public relations campaigns</a> at specific communities to encourage members to participate. In addition, Census Bureau employees knock on doors in person across the country, trying to <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/2020-census-nonresponse-followup-completion-rates.html">follow up with those who did not respond to mailings, announcements and events</a>. </p>
<p>However, the pandemic made that process more difficult for the 2020 census, both by making people uncomfortable with in-person visits and by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/census-supreme-court-ruling.html">shortening the timeline for collecting the data</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Who got missed?</h2>
<p>The official estimates show that the 2020 census was really very accurate, capturing 99.8% of the nation’s residents overall. But the census <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/2020-census-estimates-of-undercount-and-overcount.html">missed counting</a> 3.3% of Black Americans, 5.6% of American Indians or Alaskan Natives who live on reservations and 5% of people of Hispanic or Latino origin. This could mean missing about 1.4 million Black Americans; 49,000 American Indians or Alaskan Natives who live on reservations; and 3.3 million people of Hispanic or Latino origin.</p>
<p>This performance is much worse than in the previous two censuses, when smaller proportions of those populations were missed.</p>
<p>The 2020 census also counted 1.64% more non-Hispanic whites than there actually are in the country. For example, college students could have been counted twice – at their college residence and at their parents’ home.</p>
<p><iframe id="Gz3oo" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Gz3oo/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>3. How can they count the people who were missed?</h2>
<p>It can be puzzling to understand how the Census Bureau can know how many people it missed. Efforts for measuring census accuracy <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2012/04/02/sample-surveys-and-the-1940-census/">started in 1940</a>. Census officials use two methods.</p>
<p>First, the Census Bureau uses <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/coverage-measurement/da.html">demographic analysis</a> to create an estimate of the population. That means the bureau calculates how many people might be added to the population counts, through birth registrations and immigration records, and how many people might be removed from them, through death record or emigration reports. Comparing that estimate with the actual count can reveal an <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/popest/2020-demographic-analysis-tables.html">overall scale</a> of how many people the census missed.</p>
<p>As a second measure, the Census Bureau runs what it calls a “<a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2021/post-enumeration-survey.html">post-enumeration survey</a>,” taken after the initial census data is collected. The survey is conducted independent of the census and <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/decade/2020/planning-management/plan/memo-series/2020-memo-2022_06.html">randomly sent to a small group of households</a> from census blocks in each state, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. The results of that survey are compared with the census results for those households and can reveal how many people were missed, or if some people were counted twice or counted in the wrong place.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man gestures at a screen showing two maps of political districts in South Carolina" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Population figures formally reported by the Census Bureau for the purposes of reapportionment cannot be corrected, according to a 1999 Supreme Court ruling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Redistricting-SouthCarolina/3a5b086838a441f396539a20a71ec024/photo">AP Photo/Jeffrey Collins</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Can the Census Bureau fix its data?</h2>
<p>The Census Bureau has determined that its 2020 data is not accurate and has measured the amount of that inaccuracy. But in 1999, the Supreme Court ruled that <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/525/326">the bureau cannot adjust the numbers</a> it sent to Congress and the states for the purpose of allocating seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and, therefore, Electoral College votes. That’s because federal law <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/13/141">bars the use of statistical sampling</a> in apportionment decisions and requires those changes to be made only on the basis of how many people were actually counted. That means political representation in Congress may not accurately reflect the constituencies the representatives serve.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/525/326">the numbers can be adjusted when used to divide up federal funding</a> for <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/01/1069610946/2020-census-correction-challenge-results-count-question-resolution">essential services in communities</a> around the nation. More than <a href="https://www.census.gov/about/what.html">US$675 billion a year is provided to tribal, state and local governments</a> proportionally according to their population numbers.</p>
<p>However, that adjustment happens only if tribal, state or local officials ask for it. The Census Bureau’s <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2021/2020-census-count-question-resolution.html">Count Question Resolution program</a> can correct 2020 census data until June 2023. After the 2010 census, the program received requests from 1,180 governments, of out about 39,000 nationwide. As a result, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42092.pdf">about 2,700 people were newly added</a> to the census count, and about <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/01/1069610946/2020-census-correction-challenge-results-count-question-resolution">48,000 household addresses were corrected</a>.</p>
<p>This approach can lessen the harm done to communities where the census count missed people. But it doesn’t prevent the Census Bureau from missing them – or others – in the next census.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=weekly&source=inline-weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179612/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aggie Yellow Horse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When the Census Bureau’s count of the population is inaccurate, it affects representation and government spending. Correcting errors isn’t always allowed.Aggie Yellow Horse, Assistant Professor of Asian Pacific American Studies, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1791852022-03-17T12:11:32Z2022-03-17T12:11:32ZRussia’s no longer a ‘most-favored nation’: 5 questions about the coveted trading status answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452534/original/file-20220316-8547-ihvpwe.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=323%2C287%2C5667%2C3700&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Russian-made goods will likely cost more in Western liquor stores if most-favored-nation status is removed. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RussiaUkraineWarTradeExplainer/78ca0661c64a4282ac0dac94e1b79c34/photo?Query=Russia%20trade&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1617&currentItemNo=17">AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The U.S., the European Union, Japan and Canada are further severing Russia from global markets by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/11/biden-will-push-to-end-russias-most-favored-nation-trade-status.html">removing a coveted trading designation</a> over its war in Ukraine. Known as most-favored-nation status, it generally entitles a country to the best possible trading terms, which comes with many economic benefits. The <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_22_1776">EU agreed to drop the designation</a> on March 15, 2022, and Congress <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-07/u-s-senate-to-vote-on-russian-crude-oil-ban-send-to-house">did the same on April 7</a>. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Y58-EhUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Charles Hankla</a>, a political scientist who studies trade at Georgia State University, explains what most-favored-nation status is, why countries want it and the consequences of Russia losing it.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is most-favored-nation status?</h2>
<p>Designating a country as a “most-favored nation,” which the U.S. also calls permanent normal trading relations, lies at the heart of the global trading system.</p>
<p>In fact, most-favored-nation status is mentioned in the very <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/gatt47_01_e.htm">first article</a> of the first treaty that established the multilateral trading system in 1947. Even today, the most critical commitment made by all 164 members of the World Trade Organization is to extend most-favored-nation status to all others in the club.</p>
<p>When a country awards this designation to a trading partner, it promises to apply only its lowest trade barriers – tariffs, quotas and the like – to that partner. If the awarding country then decides to lower barriers to one trading partner, it must lower them to all deemed a most-favored nation. </p>
<p>This embodies the principle of <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm">non-discrimination</a> within the WTO: Every member of the multilateral trading organization must treat all the others alike.</p>
<h2>2. How is it removed?</h2>
<p>Russia is still a member of the WTO, which <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/russia_e.htm">it joined in 2012</a>. So how can its most-favored-nation status be taken away? </p>
<p>WTO rules <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/region_e.htm">provide a number of ways</a> that members <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/agrm8_e.htm">can impose special trading barriers</a> on other members, but the one that’s relevant here is the so-called security exception. Article 21 of the 1994 treaty that gave rise to the WTO <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/gatt_ai_e/art21_e.pdf">allows a member state to waive most-favored-nation status</a> when “necessary for the protection of its essential security interests,” especially “in time of war or other emergency in international relations.”</p>
<p>President Donald Trump <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/500528-reforming-national-security-tariffs">used this exception</a> as part of his justification for his trade war with China, also a WTO member.</p>
<p>With the war in Ukraine, the security provision <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/remove-russia-trade-privilege-what-need-know/">provides the primary legal justification</a> for sanctions against Russia that might seem to violate the rules of the multilateral trading system. </p>
<p>Russia does have the right to appeal these sanctions, but the WTO body that adjudicates disagreements <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news19_e/gc_09dec19_e.htm">has essentially been defunct</a> – as the result of a Trump-imposed nomination boycott – since 2020.</p>
<p>And in one of those ironies that occasionally arise in international relations, Russia <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/wtos-first-ruling-national-security-what-does-it-mean-united-states">used the security exemption</a> in 2019 to justify sanctions it imposed on Ukraine – and its right to do so was affirmed by a WTO adjudication panel. It seems unlikely that the WTO would rule against the U.S. or its allies over sanctions undertaken during a much hotter war than existed three years ago.</p>
<p>While the temporary suspension of most-favored-nation status can be taken immediately by individual countries, the tougher penalty of expelling Russia from the World Trade Organization – floated by <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/596993-expel-russia-from-the-wto">some commentators</a> – would be <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ousting-russia-wto-imf-would-mark-end-an-era-2022-03-09/">much more complicated</a>. It would require two-thirds of member states to open debate on the issue and three-quarters to vote for expulsion, something that seems unlikely in an organization traditionally built on consensus.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A worker in a yellow fluorescent coat stands next to large pipes that carry gas from Russia to Germany" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452554/original/file-20220316-8117-dpnwnv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452554/original/file-20220316-8117-dpnwnv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452554/original/file-20220316-8117-dpnwnv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452554/original/file-20220316-8117-dpnwnv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452554/original/file-20220316-8117-dpnwnv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452554/original/file-20220316-8117-dpnwnv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452554/original/file-20220316-8117-dpnwnv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline running from Russia to Germany, is on pause because of the war in Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/UkraineTensionsEnergySecurity/883677f11671410ba8c931c2a6e4a261/photo?Query=Russia%20gas%20Europe&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=535&currentItemNo=8">AP Photo/Michael Sohn</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. What impact will this have on Russia?</h2>
<p>While taking away most-favored-nation status won’t have much immediate effect – beyond symbolism – this change could lead to more severe sanctions in the future. </p>
<p>Although the U.S. doesn’t trade a lot with Russia – with <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/russia-and-eurasia/russia">imports of just US$22.3 billion</a> in 2019, and that was mostly the oil, gas and coal that <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/08/fact-sheet-united-states-bans-imports-of-russian-oil-liquefied-natural-gas-and-coal/">has now been banned</a> – the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries">EU is Russia’s largest single trading partner</a>. Moreover, the <a href="https://www.g7germany.de/resource/blob/997532/2014234/39e142fa878dce9e420ef4d29c17969d/2022-03-11-g7-leader-eng-data.pdf?download=1">G-7 countries</a> – the U.S., U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada and Italy – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/business/economy/russia-trade-status-us.html">alone account for half</a> of all Russian exports.</p>
<p>Of course, there’s a flip side to this since trade interdependence works both ways: As the damage on Russia goes up, the country imposing the sanctions feels more pain as well. This is especially true given <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/12/energy/us-gas-prices-russia-oil/index.html">Europe’s oil and gas dependence on Russia</a>, which means its energy costs could surge if the EU imposes more sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. More than that, Ukraine’s and Russia’s status as major producers of food grains has the <a href="https://www.wfp.org/stories/ukraine-war-more-countries-will-feel-burn-food-and-energy-price-rises-fuel-hunger-warns-wfp">World Food Program</a> sounding the alarm that the war and resulting sanctions could increase hunger in many developing countries.</p>
<p>The bottom line is this: Withdrawal of most-favored-nation status, by bypassing international trade law, opens the door to much more severe sanctions. Whether these are imposed depends on how much individual nations – especially in Europe – will be willing to sacrifice to punish Russia.</p>
<h2>4. Can Russia find other countries to buy its goods?</h2>
<p>The Russian government seems to believe that even if it’s subjected to crippling trade sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, it will be able to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/13/russia-counts-on-sanctions-help-from-china-us-warns-beijing">survive economically</a> thanks to its special relationship with China. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/us/politics/russia-china-ukraine.html">Intelligence reports</a> have alleged that Russian President Vladimir Putin informed his counterpart in China in advance of his broad plans toward Ukraine. It seems likely that Putin understood that sanctions were a possible consequence of the invasion, though he probably did not anticipate their severity. Whatever the case, Putin likely wanted to ensure that China would help cushion the blow. </p>
<p>There is no question that China’s support could be critical to bolstering a Russian economy reeling from <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/russia-debts-ruble-sanctions">crippling sanctions</a>. China is now the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/us/politics/russia-china-ukraine.html">world’s second-largest economy</a>, a major trading power and a source of deep-pocketed <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-aiib-and-the-one-belt-one-road/">financial resources</a>. Despite its massive geographic size and formidable if diminished military, Russia is a much weaker economic power, with an <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/">economy smaller</a> than that of Italy, Canada or South Korea. </p>
<p>With China’s support, Russia should be able to find a buyer for some of its exports, including natural gas and oil, and it will have access to a well-capitalized financial system. </p>
<p>But the matter isn’t so straightforward for Moscow. As economist and columnist <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/opinion/china-russia-sanctions-economy.html">Paul Krugman has argued</a>, Russia depends on the United States and its allies for many critical imports, including high-tech goods. And a dependence on China as financier and purchaser represents its own security challenges to Putin, who undoubtedly wants to avoid becoming a client of Beijing. </p>
<p>China, for all its economic weight, will not be able to shield Russia from the economic consequences of this devastating war. </p>
<h2>5. Are there any other long-term consequences of this?</h2>
<p>There are potential long-term implications of withholding most-favored-nation status from Russia. </p>
<p>First, there is the risk that heavier trade barriers will backfire by driving Russia more deeply into the Chinese sphere of influence. Indeed, American observers were already beginning to worry about Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s increasingly cozy relationship <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-obama-driving-russia-china-together-10735">well before the invasion</a>.</p>
<p>Second, while trade sanctions are a common tool to punish countries breaking international rules and norms, their use against a major power like Russia is quite unusual. Indeed, the guiding principle of the multilateral trading system is <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm">nondiscrimination</a> in trade. There is, then, the danger that this intrusion of geopolitics into trade could threaten the coherence of a trading system already <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/17/opinion/wto-trade-biden.html">buffeted by crises</a>.</p>
<p>When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and the Eastern Bloc was integrated into the trading system, <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man/NdFpQwKfX2IC?hl=en&gbpv=0">many saw it</a> as the final step in a long effort to create a liberal world order. Economic interdependence, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/425131">it was thought</a>, would discourage future wars and promote peace.</p>
<p>With the war in Ukraine, that assumption has been called into question, and along with it the unity of the global trading order. </p>
<p>All of this leaves the U.S. and other liberal powers on the horns of a dilemma. Trade and financial sanctions are the primary tools available – short of war – to punish Russia for invading Ukraine. But if sanctions are so severe that they prompt Moscow and Beijing to forge an ever closer relationship, that risks further splintering the already fragile world trading system. </p>
<p>By no means does that mean the West shouldn’t punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. But it’s important to be aware of the potential consequences that could poison the well of global trade for years to come.</p>
<p>[<em>More than 150,000 readers get one of The Conversation’s informative newsletters.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140K">Join the list today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Hankla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US, Japan and other wealthy G-7 nations plan to remove Russia’s status as a most-favored nation. A trade expert explains what that term means and what might happen next.Charles Hankla, Associate Professor of Political Science, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1790362022-03-10T20:10:15Z2022-03-10T20:10:15ZWhy stagflation is an economic nightmare – and may already be here<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523617/original/file-20230501-22-zod71e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=104%2C52%2C3777%2C2531&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Stagflation is scary.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">dundanim/iStock via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-federal-reserve-and-the-art-of-navigating-a-soft-landing-when-economic-data-sends-mixed-signals-204707">economy is cooling</a> while <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-inflation-eases-but-stays-high-putting-the-federal-reserve-in-a-tough-spot">inflation remains elevated</a>. And that is <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/04/27/gdp-data-stagflation-recession-economy-outlook/">raising alarm bells</a> among economists who worry it means “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-04-28/stagflation-risks-rise-as-growth-ebbs-and-inflation-sticks-around?sref=Hjm5biAW">stagflation” is on the way</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>But what is stagflation exactly? We asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GyTN5PYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Veronika Dolar</a>, an economist at SUNY Old Westbury and a visiting professor at Stony Brook University, to explain what it is, what causes it and why economists and policymakers hate the phenomenon.</em></p>
<h2>What is stagflation?</h2>
<p>Economists typically focus on the three big macroeconomic variables: <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp">gross domestic product</a>, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment.asp">unemployment</a> and <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp">inflation</a>. </p>
<p>Each measure tells its own important story about how the economy is doing. GDP – or the total output of all goods and services produced – shows us what the broader economy is doing, unemployment tells us about the job situation and inflation measures the movement of prices. </p>
<p>But their stories also overlap. And unfortunately, they usually don’t all tell us good news at the same time.</p>
<p>Under normal circumstances, there are trade-offs. You usually can’t have a strong pace of GDP growth and low unemployment without suffering the pains of higher inflation. And if you’re able to keep inflation low, that usually comes at the expense of subdued GDP growth and possibly more people unemployed. </p>
<p>So, normally there is some good news and some bad news. But with stagflation, there is no good news. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp">Stagflation happens</a> when the economy is experiencing both economic stagnation – stalling or falling output – and high inflation. Additionally, a struggling economy will drive up unemployment. </p>
<p>In other words, all three macroeconomic indicators are going in the wrong direction. </p>
<h2>Has the US experienced it before?</h2>
<p>The last time this happened in the U.S. was in the 1970s, a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-10/world-economy-can-avoid-1970s-rerun-but-not-without-some-hurt">period when energy prices were skyrocketing</a>. </p>
<p>As a result of an embargo <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/OPEC">led by OPEC</a>, a cartel of oil-producing countries, the <a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74">price of crude doubled</a> from 1973 to 1975. </p>
<p>Countries like the U.S. that imported a lot of oil experienced both high inflation and recession. The consumer price index <a href="https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-">exceeded 10% for the first time since the 1940s</a>, the unemployment rate <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">jumped from 4.6% in 1973 to 9%</a> in 1975, and <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA">GDP plunged</a>.</p>
<p>The same events – OPEC pushing up prices, inflation soaring, economies sinking into recession – <a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1978-79">repeated just a few years later</a>. Over this period, rising unemployment and reduced business activity meant everyone had less money, yet surging inflation meant every dollar was worth a little bit less every day. </p>
<p>Moreover, this experience with stagflation <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/nixon-signs-national-speed-limit-into-law">fundamentally altered Americans’ way of life</a> and ushered in an era of fuel conservation and rationing not seen since World War II. </p>
<h2>What causes stagflation?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462851-stagflation">causes of stagflation</a> are still hotly debated by economists. Before the 1970s, they generally didn’t believe it was possible to have both high inflation and high unemployment in a stagnating economy. Economists had thought that <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2020/january/what-is-phillips-curve-why-flattened">unemployment and inflation were inversely related</a>.</p>
<p>There are a <a href="https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/stagflation/">few different theories</a> on how both high inflation and a stagnating economy can coexist, however. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c9160/revisions/c9160.rev2.pdf">most common</a> is that stagflation happens when there is a so-called negative supply shock. That is, when something that is crucial to an entire economy, such as energy or labor, is suddenly in short supply or becomes more expensive. One obvious example is crude oil. </p>
<p>Oil is a key input into the production of many goods and services. When some event, like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reduces the supply, the price of oil rises. Businesses in the U.S. and elsewhere that produce gasoline, tires and many other products requiring petroleum experience rising transportation costs, which makes it less profitable to sell stuff to consumers or other companies no matter the price.</p>
<p>As a result, a great number of producers decrease their production, which decreases aggregate supply. This decrease leads to falling national output and an increased unemployment rate together with higher overall prices.</p>
<h2>Can the US do anything about it?</h2>
<p>For policymakers, there’s almost nothing worse than the specter of stagflation.</p>
<p>The problem is that the ways to fight either one of those two problems – high inflation, low growth – usually end up making the other one even worse. </p>
<p>The Federal Reserve, for example, could keep raising interest rates, as <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm">it’s been doing since March 2022</a>. But inflation <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">remains high, at about 5%</a>, well over double the Fed’s target of 2%. But that also hurts economic activity and overall growth, because it puts the brakes on borrowing and investment. </p>
<p>Policymakers could try to spur more economic growth – whether through government stimulus or lowering interest rates – but that would likely end up fueling more inflation. </p>
<p>Put another way, you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t. And that means solving the problem may simply depend on circumstances out of U.S. policymakers’ control, such as an end to the crisis in Ukraine or finding ways to immediately increase oil supply – <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2022/03/09/domestic-oil-could-increase-supply-but-it-wont-be-cheap-or-quick/">which is tricky</a>.</p>
<p>In other words, stagflation is a nightmare you never want to live through. </p>
<p><em>This article is an updated version of a story originally published on March 10, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Veronika Dolar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US economy is cooling, yet inflation remains elevated, a combo that suggests stagflation might be right around the corner.Veronika Dolar, Assistant Professor of Economics, SUNY Old WestburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1757912022-01-26T22:50:16Z2022-01-26T22:50:16ZFederal Reserve plans to raise interest rates ‘soon’ to fight inflation: What that means for consumers and the economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442823/original/file-20220126-17-12pu2mv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell as the central bank prepares to raise rates for the first time in three years. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/OffTheCharts-MoneyPrinter/a6f1d62158b34b549e3c907ed60bddeb/photo?Query=federal%20reserve&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=8573&currentItemNo=17">Brendan Smialowski/Pool via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Federal Reserve on Jan. 26, 2022, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220126a.htm">signaled plans to begin raising interest rates “soon”</a> – possibly in March – in a bid to tamp down inflation before it poses a serious risk to the U.S. economy. A separate report released the next day <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-27/u-s-economic-growth-quickened-last-quarter-with-inventory-boost?srnd=premium&sref=Hjm5biAW">showed the economy grew 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021</a>. An interest rate hike would be the first time the central bank has increased its benchmark lending rate in over three years.</em></p>
<p><em>Lifting the borrowing costs consumers and businesses pay for loans has the effect of slowing economic activity, which in turn could curb inflation. But there are also concerns that it could put on the brakes too quickly. We asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JfUEmSUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Alexander Kurov</a>, a finance professor at West Virginia University, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dnCoKIUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Marketa Wolfe</a>, an economist at Skidmore College, to explain what the Fed is doing and what it means for you.</em> </p>
<h2>1. Why is the Fed raising interest rates?</h2>
<p>Short-term interest rates in the U.S. <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS">are now essentially zero</a>.</p>
<p>The Fed quickly cut rates to zero at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020 in an attempt to soften the blow of the <a href="https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions">sharp recession that began that month</a> as the U.S. went into lockdown. As a reminder of how bad things were back then, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA">over 40 million workers</a> – a quarter of the American workforce – filed for unemployment in the first few months of the pandemic, a staggering number with no precedent in the job market.</p>
<p>Although the recession was short-lived – lasting only two months – and the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/business/us-economic-recovery-coronavirus">economy has mostly recovered</a>, the Fed has kept rates at rock bottom because <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/22665191/covid-economy-poverty-unemployment">many workers and businesses still need support</a> as the pandemic continues to rage. </p>
<p>The big problem for the Fed now is that U.S. consumer prices have surged. For 10 months in a row, inflation has been above the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm">Fed’s 2% target</a> and <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">reached an annual pace of about 7% in December</a>. This is the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8dGq">highest rate of inflation recorded in the U.S. in the last 40 years</a>. High inflation means the prices people pay for goods and services are continually going up – <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">especially for basic items</a> like meat and gasoline, as well as for manufactured goods like cars. </p>
<p>The Fed can ill afford to allow this to continue because if higher inflation becomes entrenched, it <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ddd02d7a-1557-4357-af6f-7c433da1b406">would damage the economy</a>. And the longer it lasts, the harder – and more painful for consumers and businesses – it is going to be to bring it back to a more sustainable 2%. </p>
<p>So the Fed has to act quickly before it’s too late. </p>
<h2>2. How does the Fed raise rates?</h2>
<p>The Fed sets a target range for what is called the “<a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/research/dual-mandate/the-federal-funds-rate">federal funds rate</a>.” This rate acts like a benchmark for all interest rates in the economy. </p>
<p>While the Fed’s statement didn’t specify a time when it plans to raise rates, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/26/business/economy/fed-interest-rates-inflation.html">Chair Jerome Powell said</a> “the committee is of a mind to raise the federal funds rate at the March meeting, assuming that the conditions are appropriate for doing so. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-26/fed-signals-liftoff-soon-sees-asset-reduction-start-afterward?srnd=premium&sref=Hjm5biAW">Analysts expect it to be a 0.25 percentage point increase</a>. This would affect banks’ cost of borrowing, which in turn slowly filters throughout the economy as lenders charge more for loans on homes, cars, businesses, college tuition and anything else you might want to buy with debt. Banks would also gradually increase the interest they offer on deposits and savings accounts. </p>
<p>The Fed does not directly control all these other rates, and the exact path they will take is not completely predictable, but the overall trend will be up if the Fed keeps raising its target rate. </p>
<p>Markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-raise-rates-three-times-this-year-tame-unruly-inflation-2022-01-20/">at least two more times in 2022</a>. </p>
<h2>3. What does that mean for consumers and businesses?</h2>
<p>Put simply, higher interest rates mean borrowers would need to pay more for the loans they get. </p>
<p>If the Fed lifts interest rates this year by 0.75 percentage point, as expected, this would translate into about US$45,000 in additional interest payments on a 30-year, $300,000 mortgage.</p>
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<p>So if you want to borrow to start a business, pay for college, buy a car or do anything else, you should expect your borrowing costs to be higher later this year. </p>
<p>On the other hand, higher rates is good news for savers and investors, as their returns from activities like making deposits and buying bonds will go up. </p>
<h2>4. And how will it affect the broader economy?</h2>
<p>Higher interest rates would likely slow down business activity. While this can help reduce inflation, it also means lower economic growth. </p>
<p>The Fed always makes decisions based on what is happening in the economy and on how economic conditions are expected to change. And changes in the economy are often hard to predict.</p>
<p>The biggest unknown at this point is what will happen to inflation later this year. This is uncertain because inflation is <a href="https://www.cwmnw.com/blog/all-you-need-to-know-about-inflation-the-reality-of-supply-chain-shortages-and-money-supply">driven by multiple factors</a>, such as supply chain shortages and strong demand. </p>
<p>In addition, the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART">labor force participation rate</a> has still not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and the economy <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-small-businesses-inflation-supply-chain-recruiting-federal-aid/">is experiencing labor shortages</a>, which could push wages and prices higher. If these COVID-19-related pressures don’t ease up soon, inflation could continue to stay high or continue to accelerate, which may force the Fed to increase interest rates faster than currently expected. </p>
<p>On the other hand, if economic or employment growth stalls, this will make it much harder for the Fed to raise rates without making things worse. The Fed will need to find the right balance between taming inflation and avoiding slowing down the economy too much. </p>
<p><em>Article updated to add GDP report and Powell comment.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175791/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US central bank said surging inflation is guiding its decision about when to lift interest rates. Two experts on financial markets explain what might happen next.Alexander Kurov, Professor of Finance and Fred T. Tattersall Research Chair in Finance, West Virginia UniversityMarketa Wolfe, Associate Professor of Economics, Skidmore CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1742282022-01-11T13:34:51Z2022-01-11T13:34:51ZWho benefits from a break on federal student loan payments? An economist answers 3 questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439419/original/file-20220104-25-ixzev3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8192%2C5457&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Student loan borrowers save a collective of $7.1 billion per month thanks to the loan pause. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/young-handsome-serious-man-calculating-his-bills-royalty-free-image/1359420174?adppopup=true">Pekic/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Although President Joe Biden has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/22/statement-by-president-joe-biden-extending-the-pause-on-student-loan-repayment-an-additional-90-days/">extended the pause on federal student loan payments</a> from February 1 to May 1 – a move that includes a suspension of interest on the loans – some advocates want the president to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/student-loan-pause-extended-through-may-1-advocates-want-cancellation.html">cancel student loan debt altogether</a>. Here, economist William Chittenden illuminates who benefits and who pays when borrowers get a break on paying back their federal student loans.</em></p>
<h2>1. How helpful is this pause to individual borrowers?</h2>
<p>It depends. <a href="https://pressley.house.gov/sites/pressley.house.gov/files/Economic%20Impact%20of%20Student%20Loan%20Payment%20Pause%20-%20Roosevelt%20Institute%20%281%291.pdf">18.1 million borrowers</a> – out of <a href="https://educationdata.org/student-loan-debt-statistics#:%7E:text=43.2%20million%20student%20borrowers%20are,%2437%2C105%20for%20their%20federal%20loans.">43.4 million borrowers</a> – were making federal student loan payments prior to the current loan pause.</p>
<p>Now, these borrowers will continue to get a break on making payments until May 1, 2022. With an <a href="https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/12.08.21.Letter%20to%20Biden%20re%20payment%20pause%20clean%20EW%20AP%20signed.pdf">average monthly payment of US$393</a>, the collective direct benefits to these <a href="https://pressley.house.gov/sites/pressley.house.gov/files/12.08.21.Letter%20to%20Biden%20re%20payment%20pause%20final%20signed%20%281%291.pdf">18.1 million borrowers have been over $7.1 billion per month, or over $85 billion annually</a>, to save, pay down other debts or spend on goods and services. </p>
<p>In contrast, the 25 million borrowers who weren’t already making payments before the loan pause – those in college, recent graduates and those in default – do not immediately benefit, as they do not have extra money to spend. </p>
<p>Although most borrowers are not directly benefiting from the payment pause since they were not making payments, the vast majority are benefiting from the suspension of interest accruing on their federal student loans. </p>
<p>At an <a href="https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-interest-rate">average interest rate of 5.8%</a> on all outstanding federal student loans, this saves all <a href="https://studentaid.gov/sites/default/files/fsawg/datacenter/library/PortfolioSummary.xls">43.4 million borrowers</a> a total of over $93 billion per year in interest, or an average of $179 per month.</p>
<h2>2. Would cancellation really help the economy?</h2>
<p>As an economist who <a href="https://theconversation.com/canceling-student-loan-debt-will-barely-boost-the-economy-but-a-targeted-approach-could-help-certain-groups-162076">studies student loan debt</a>, I would argue that total federal student loan forgiveness would have a positive, but relatively modest, economic impact. Since most federal student loan borrowers have not been making payments since early 2020, most of any financial benefit is already reflected in the current level of gross domestic product. They are already spending the money that would have gone toward the payments on other things. The latest payment pause does not give them any additional money to immediately spend.</p>
<p>If Biden were to restart student loan payments on May 1, that may lead to a drop in GDP, as the money for those payments could no longer be spent on other things, like food, clothing or leisure. However, preventing a drop in economic activity is not the same as growing the economy. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/12.08.21.Letter%20to%20Biden%20re%20payment%20pause%20final%20signed%20(1)1.pdf">Dec. 8, 2021, letter</a>, three Democrats – Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Chuck Schumer of New York, and Rep. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts – asked Biden to cancel all federal student loan debt by executive order. The letter argued that canceling all <a href="https://studentaid.gov/sites/default/files/fsawg/datacenter/library/PortfolioSummary.xls">$1.6 trillion in federal student loan debt</a> “has the potential to add $173.83 billion – in 2020 dollars – to the nation’s GDP in the first year after implementation.” </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/rpr_2_6.pdf">economic model</a> used to estimate “the potential to add $173.83 billion” to GDP cited in the letter is based, in part, on the unrealistic assumption that all student loan borrowers are currently making payments. Many student loan borrowers are currently in college and were not required to make payments prior to the payment pause. Forgiving their federal student loans would reduce the borrowers’ debt, but since they were not making student loan payments, this would not result in any immediate increase in economic activity. Any increase in GDP would come years later when they would have been required to start making payments.</p>
<p>For those who were making payments, loan forgiveness may result in some new spending, leading to some economic growth. However, some of the funds would likely be saved or used to pay down other debt. While both of these actions benefit the individual borrower, neither adds to GDP. While total student loan forgiveness may help prevent a decline in GDP, it is unlikely to lead to any significant economic growth in the near future.</p>
<p>This analysis does not address the social costs of student loan debt, <a href="https://www.elfi.com/are-student-loans-keeping-millennials-from-starting-families/">like delaying marriage or having children</a>. Nor does it address what should be done regarding paying for college going forward.</p>
<p>One <a href="https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/rpr_2_6.pdf">study</a> concluded that total student loan forgiveness would increase GDP on “average between $86 billion and $108 billion per year.” Another estimated total student loan forgiveness would result in <a href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/canceling-student-loan-debt-poor-economic-stimulus#_ftn3">about $90 billion</a> of cash available to spend each year. Although around $100 billion per year may seem like a significant amount, it is only 0.43% of the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP">$23.2 trillion</a> in annual U.S. GDP. Even the higher estimate of $173.83 billion is only 0.75% of GDP. </p>
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<p>Although student loan forgiveness provides modest benefits to the U.S. economy, it is estimated the financial costs outweigh the benefits to the economy. One study estimates that every dollar of student loan forgiveness results in <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/11/24/student-loan-forgiveness-wont-provide-economic-stimulus/?sh=4539e4de73a8">only 8 to 23 cents of economic growth in the U.S. economy.</a> Another <a href="https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/rpr_2_6.pdf">study</a> estimated the growth in GDP over 10 years would be between $252 billion and $1 trillion, compared to the cost of $1.4 trillion of student loan forgiveness. </p>
<h2>3. Who pays for cancellation?</h2>
<p>Since federal student loans are made by <a href="https://www.savingforcollege.com/article/how-do-student-loans-work">the U.S. government</a>, which is financed by U.S. taxpayers, U.S. taxpayers will ultimately bear the cost if those loans are canceled.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174228/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Chittenden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Student loan forgiveness doesn’t benefit the economy the way some advocates believe it would, an economist argues.William Chittenden, Presidential Fellow, Texas State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1735722021-12-10T16:11:35Z2021-12-10T16:11:35ZWhy is inflation so high? Is it bad? An economist answers 3 questions about soaring consumer prices<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436961/original/file-20211210-92077-ku5hu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=140%2C90%2C5377%2C3333&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Used car and truck prices are up 31% over the previous year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BizUsedCarSales/8800bac7d31449b3b8e8dea920ac7fb7/photo?Query=used%20car%20lot&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=230&currentItemNo=15">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Consumer prices <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">jumped 6.8% in November 2021 from a year earlier</a> – the fastest rate of increase since 1982, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data published on Dec. 10, 2021. The biggest jumps during the month were in energy, used cars and clothing. The Conversation U.S. asked University of South Carolina economist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=B744wv0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">William Hauk</a> to explain what’s driving the recent increase in inflation and how it affects consumers, companies and the economy.</em></p>
<h2>1. Why is inflation running so high?</h2>
<p>There are two basic reasons why inflation has been increasing: supply and demand. </p>
<p>Starting with the latter, <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/personal-income-and-outlays-october-2021">consumers are on a spending spree</a> after having spent most of 2020 at home bingeing on Netflix. Now that more people are vaccinated, many feel increasingly confident going to the stores again and are demanding more goods and services. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/us/politics/stimulus-checks-economic-hardship.html">Adding support to households’ buying power</a> are the stimulus checks and other pandemic-related aid that have gone out to American families during the pandemic. The resulting increase in spending has been good for <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/111314/what-causes-inflation-and-does-anyone-gain-it.asp">stimulating the economy</a>, but more demand typically results in higher prices. </p>
<p>The increased demand might not be too bad for inflation on its own, but the U.S. economy is also <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/whats-causing-americas-massive-supply-chain-disruptions/story?id=80587129">experiencing significant supply chain problems</a> tied to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is driving up the cost of production and reducing the supply of goods, also pushing up prices. </p>
<p>What’s more, wages are jumping as well – <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">up 4.8% in November</a> from a year earlier – as employers in many industries offer more money to retain or hire people. This news is great for workers, but companies often have to pass on these higher costs to consumers. </p>
<p><iframe id="6wzps" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6wzps/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>2. Is inflation always bad?</h2>
<p>Inflation isn’t always bad news. A little bit is actually quite healthy for an economy. </p>
<p>If prices are falling – something known as deflation – companies may be hesitant to invest in new plants and equipment, and unemployment might rise. And inflation can make it easier for some households with higher wages to pay off debts. </p>
<p>However, inflation running at 5% or higher is a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s. Economists <a href="https://www.haukeconomics.com/">like myself</a> believe that higher-than-normal inflation is bad for the economy for many reasons. </p>
<p>For consumers, higher prices on essential goods like food and gasoline <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pandemic-has-made-it-even-harder-for-one-in-three-americans-to-obtain-healthy-affordable-food-169985">may become unaffordable</a> for people whose paychecks aren’t rising as much. But even when their wages are rising, higher inflation makes it harder for consumers to tell if a particular good is getting more expensive relative to other goods, or just in line with the average price increase. This can make it harder for people to budget appropriately. </p>
<p>What is true for households is true for companies as well. Businesses see the prices of key inputs, like oil or microchips, rise. They may want to pass on these costs to consumers, but could be limited in their ability to do so. As a result, they may have to cut back production, increasing supply chain problems.</p>
<h2>3. What are the biggest risks?</h2>
<p>If inflation stays elevated for too long, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/insights/122016/9-common-effects-inflation.asp">it can lead to something economists call hyperinflation</a>. This is when expectations that prices will be keep rising fuels more inflation, which reduces the real value of every dollar in your pocket.<br>
In the most extreme cases – think <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/may/14/zimbabwe-trillion-dollar-note-hyerinflation-investment">Zimbabwe in the late 2000s</a> – spiraling prices can lead to a collapse in a currency’s value. People will want to spend any money they have as soon as they get it for fear that prices will rise even over short periods of time.</p>
<p>The U.S. is nowhere near this situation, but central banks like the Federal Reserve want to avoid it at all costs so they typically step in to try to reduce inflation before it gets out of control. </p>
<p>The problem is the main way it does that is by raising interest rates, which slows the economy. If the Fed is forced to raise interest rates too quickly, it can even cause a recession and result in higher unemployment – as the <a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/recession-of-1981-82">U.S. experienced in the early 1980s</a>, around the last time inflation was this high. Then-Fed chair Paul Volcker did manage to rein in inflation from as high as about 14% in 1980 – at the <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/january-2005/volckers-handling-of-the-great-inflation-taught-us-much">cost of double-digit unemployment rates</a>.</p>
<p>Americans are not yet seeing inflation nearly that high, but preventing the U.S. from getting there <a href="https://theconversation.com/jerome-powell-keeps-his-job-at-the-fed-where-hell-be-responsible-for-preventing-inflation-from-spiraling-out-of-control-without-tanking-the-economy-171812">is almost certainly on the mind</a> of Jerome Powell, who currently leads the Fed.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Hauk has received funding from the Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER), which is administered by the U.S. Department of Education. </span></em></p>Inflation is rising at the fastest pace since Ronald Reagan was president.William Hauk, Associate Professor of Economics, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1729432021-12-02T22:03:12Z2021-12-02T22:03:12ZHow can scientists update coronavirus vaccines for omicron? A microbiologist answers 5 questions about how Moderna and Pfizer could rapidly adjust mRNA vaccines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435121/original/file-20211201-21-17k49im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C23%2C7940%2C5880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some vaccines use mRNA to make copies of the triangular red spike proteins to induce immunity.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/covid-19-viruses-attaching-to-cell-illustration-royalty-free-image/1307405789?adppopup=true">Juan Gaertner/Science Photo Library via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>If the omicron variant of the coronavirus is different enough from the original variant, it’s possible that existing vaccines won’t be as effective as they have been. If so, it’s likely that companies will need to update their vaccines to better fight omicron. Deborah Fuller is a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eNprtJEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">microbiologist who has been studying mRNA and DNA vaccines</a> for over two decades. Here she explains why vaccines might need to be updated and what that process would look like.</em></p>
<h2>1. Why might vaccines need to be updated?</h2>
<p>Basically, it’s a question of whether a virus has changed enough so that antibodies created by the original vaccine are no longer able to recognize and fend off the new mutated variant.</p>
<p>Coronaviruses use spike proteins to attach to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-ace2-receptor-how-is-it-connected-to-coronavirus-and-why-might-it-be-key-to-treating-covid-19-the-experts-explain-136928">ACE-2 receptors on the surface of human cells and infect them</a>. All mRNA COVID-19 vaccines work by giving instructions in the form of mRNA that direct cells to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-mrna-vaccines-work-and-why-do-you-need-a-second-dose-5-essential-reads-157198">make a harmless version of the spike</a> protein. This spike protein then induces the human body to produce antibodies. If a person is then ever exposed to the coronavirus, these antibodies bind to the coronavirus’s spike protein and thus interfere with its ability to infect that person’s cells. </p>
<p>The omicron variant contains a new <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern">pattern of mutations to its spike protein</a>. These changes could disrupt the ability of some – but probably not all – of the antibodies induced by the current vaccines to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04005-0">bind to the spike protein</a>. If that happens, the vaccines could be less effective at preventing people from getting infected by and transmitting the omicron variant.</p>
<h2>2. How would a new vaccine be different?</h2>
<p>Existing mRNA vaccines, like those made by Moderna or Pfizer, code for a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/mrna.html">spike protein from the original strain of coronavirus</a>. In a new or updated vaccine, the mRNA instructions would encode for the omicron spike protein.</p>
<p>By swapping out the genetic code of original spike protein for the one from this new variant, a new vaccine would induce antibodies that more effectively bind the omicron virus and prevent it from infecting cells. </p>
<p>People already vaccinated or previously exposed to COVID-19 would likely need only a single booster dose of a new vaccine to be protected not only from the new strain but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02795-x">also other strains that may be still in circulation</a>. If omicron emerges as the dominant strain over delta, then those who are unvaccinated would only need to receive 2-3 doses of the updated vaccine. If delta and omicron are both in circulation, people would likely get a combination of the current and updated vaccines.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435122/original/file-20211201-28-lmhzff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram showing how DNA becomes mRNA which becomes proteins." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435122/original/file-20211201-28-lmhzff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435122/original/file-20211201-28-lmhzff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435122/original/file-20211201-28-lmhzff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435122/original/file-20211201-28-lmhzff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435122/original/file-20211201-28-lmhzff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435122/original/file-20211201-28-lmhzff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435122/original/file-20211201-28-lmhzff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">By changing the mRNA sequence in a vaccine, researchers can change the antibody producing protein it encodes for to better match new variants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/protein-syntesis-schematic-illustration-royalty-free-illustration/1298189974?adppopup=true">Alkov/iStock via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. How do scientists update a vaccine?</h2>
<p>To make an updated mRNA vaccine, you need two ingredients: the genetic sequence of the spike protein from a new variant of concern and a DNA template that would be used to build the mRNA.</p>
<p>In most organisms, DNA provides the instructions for making mRNA. Since researchers have already <a href="https://covariants.org/variants/21K.Omicron">published the genetic code for the omicron spike protein</a>, all that’s left to do is make a DNA template for the spike protein that would be used to produce the mRNA part of new vaccines. </p>
<p>To do this, researchers mix DNA templates with synthetic enzymes and four molecular building blocks that make mRNA – G, A, U and C for short. The enzymes then build an mRNA copy of the DNA template, a process called transcription. Using this process, it takes only minutes to produce a batch of the mRNA for vaccines. Researchers then place the mRNA transcripts within <a href="https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/COVID-19-mRNA-Vaccine-Production">fatty nanoparticles that protect the instructions</a> until they are safely delivered into cells in your arm.</p>
<h2>4. How long until a new vaccine might be ready?</h2>
<p>It takes only three days to generate the DNA template needed to make a new mRNA vaccine. Then it would take about a week to produce sufficient doses of the mRNA vaccine for testing in the lab and another six weeks to perform the pre-clinical tests on human cells in test tubes to make sure a new vaccine works as it should.</p>
<p>So <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-00241-6">within 52 days</a>, scientists could have an updated mRNA vaccine ready to plug into the manufacturing process and begin producing doses for a human clinical trial. That trial would likely require at least another few weeks for a total of around 100 days to update and test a new vaccine.</p>
<p>While that trial is going on, manufacturers could start switching their current process to making a new vaccine. Ideally, once the clinical trial is complete – and if the vaccine gets authorized or approved – a company could immediately start rolling out doses of a new vaccine.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435124/original/file-20211201-25-9dj61a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dozens of vaccine vials on a table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435124/original/file-20211201-25-9dj61a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435124/original/file-20211201-25-9dj61a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435124/original/file-20211201-25-9dj61a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435124/original/file-20211201-25-9dj61a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435124/original/file-20211201-25-9dj61a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435124/original/file-20211201-25-9dj61a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435124/original/file-20211201-25-9dj61a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Both Moderna and Pfizer have made statements saying that they could have updated vaccines ready for trials in fewer than 100 days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXVirusOutbreakBrazil/66429176b01146408b7757600b8c55c4/photo?Query=covid%20vaccine%20vials&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=697&currentItemNo=38">AP Photo/Bruna Prado</a></span>
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<h2>5. Does an updated vaccine need full clinical trials?</h2>
<p>It’s currently not clear how much clinical data would be required to get FDA approval or authorization for an updated COVID-19 vaccine. However, all the ingredients would be the same in a new vaccine. The only difference would be a few lines of genetic code that would ever so slightly change the shape of the spike protein. From a safety perspective, an updated vaccine is essentially identical to the already tested vaccines. Because of these similarities, clinical testing may not need to be as extensive as what was needed for the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.</p>
<p>At a minimum, clinical trials for updated vaccines would likely require safety testing and confirmation that an updated vaccine <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/13/1016098/moderna-variant-coronavirus-vaccine-update/">induces antibody levels</a> on par with the response of the original vaccine against the original, beta and delta strains. If these are the only requirements, then researchers would enroll only hundreds – not tens of thousands – of people to obtain the clinical data needed. </p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-favorite">Weekly on Wednesdays</a>.]</p>
<p>One important thing to note is that if vaccine manufacturers decide to update their vaccines for the omicron variant, it wouldn’t be their first time making this kind of change.</p>
<p>A previous variant, B.1.351, emerged in October 2020 and was <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html">sufficiently resistant to then-current vaccines to warrant updating them</a>. Manufacturers quickly responded to the potential threat by developing an updated mRNA vaccine to match this variant and performed clinical trials to <a href="https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-evaluating-moderna-covid-19-variant-vaccine-begins">test the new vaccine</a>. Fortunately, this variant did not become the dominant variant. But if it had, vaccine manufacturers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02854-3">would have been ready to roll out an updated vaccine</a>.</p>
<p>If it turns out that omicron – or any future variant, for that matter – warrants a new vaccine, companies have already completed the dress rehearsals and are ready to meet the challenge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172943/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah Fuller is co-founder of Orlance, Inc, a biotechnology company developing a needle free technology to deliver RNA and DNA vaccines. She also serves as a scientific advisor for HDT Bio, a biotechnology company developing RNA vaccines for COVID19 and other infectious diseases. She receives funding supporting basic and translational research in RNA and DNA vaccines from the National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p>The new omicron variant of coronavirus has a number of mutations that may require manufacturers to update vaccines. The unique attributes of mRNA vaccines make updating them fast and easy.Deborah Fuller, Professor of Microbiology, School of Medicine, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.