tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/rebekha-sharkie-28279/articlesRebekha Sharkie – The Conversation2020-10-06T02:35:35Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1475682020-10-06T02:35:35Z2020-10-06T02:35:35ZGovernment wins crossbench support for new tertiary fees<p>The government’s controversial changes to higher education fees now appear set to pass the Senate, with Centre Alliance giving its support.</p>
<p>The minor party, whose two federal parliamentarians come from South Australia, has won modest concessions, including 12,000 extra places for students in SA, in return for agreeing to back the bill.</p>
<p>Centre Alliance now has only one Senate crossbencher, Stirling Griff, whose vote will be crucial to get the legislation across the line.</p>
<p>The revamp of fees will mean a major rise in what students have to pay for some courses, including the humanities and law, but reduce the student cost of courses such as nursing and teaching.</p>
<p>The government says the new structure will provide incentives for students to choose courses which are “more job-relevant”.</p>
<p>Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will vote for the changes, but crossbenchers Jacqui Lambie and Rex Patrick are opposed.</p>
<p>Patrick, an independent who is formerly from Centre Alliance, attacked that party’s education spokeswoman and member for Mayo, Rebekha Sharkie, who negotiated with the government.</p>
<p>After Sharkie said on Twitter she would be “forever grateful” for her arts degree, Patrick tweeted: “So, whilst you are forever grateful for the opportunity afforded you, you don’t care for future students in your electorate or state that might want the same opportunity.”</p>
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<p>The Senate debates the bill on Tuesday, but it is not clear when the vote will take place. If it is not this week, the next opportunity would be in November. The new fees regime is due to start next year.</p>
<p>Sharkie said the reforms would “encourage universities to strengthen industry relationships and produce job-ready graduates”.</p>
<p>The changes have won support in principle from most universities, with calls for specific alterations. But critics attack the bias against the humanities and dispute the government’s claims about the number of new places that will be created.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147568/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Centre Alliance has given its support to the government’s JobReady Graduates bill, which now seems set to pass the Senate.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1114222019-02-10T19:15:55Z2019-02-10T19:15:55ZCould Tony Abbott lose to an independent? If the zeitgeist is any guide, he’s on thin ice<p>Strangely enough, there’s a link between “Kevin07” as an electoral phenomenon and the recent successes of independents such as Kerryn Phelps (Wentworth), Cathy McGowan (Indi), and Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo). All three now hold once safe Coalition seats.</p>
<p>And the link is one that may prove influential in 2019, particularly for Zali Steggall, who is challenging Tony Abbott in Warringah.</p>
<p>As in the case of Kevin07, the formerly Coalition-friendly independents, which is also how Steggall positions herself, found a way of giving life-long centre-right voters permission to break ranks without feeling like they were being disloyal. </p>
<p>The aim is to present as essentially similar to the incumbent conservative, but better. Modernised. Updated. </p>
<p>The implicit message to voters was that it was their party that had left them, not the other way around. </p>
<p>Such a sentiment may be ripe for expression in Warringah which, while economically conservative, has emerged as demonstrably more progressive than its long-time MP, Abbott. The blue-ribbon jewel was among the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1800.0%7E2017%7EMain%20Features%7ENew%20South%20Wales%7E9">most pro-equality electorates</a> in the country in the 2017 postal survey. </p>
<p>Beaten only by Wentworth, the two inner-Sydney electorates were the leading Liberal-held “yes” seats in NSW. </p>
<p>And it is to these voters that new and fresh quasi-independent candidates like Steggall seek to speak – voters whose Liberal loyalties have been tested by Abbott’s blunt antipathy for social reform and particularly his denial of tough Australian action against global warming. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-trounced-in-huge-wentworth-swing-bringing-a-hung-parliament-105351">Liberals trounced in huge Wentworth swing, bringing a hung parliament</a>
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<h2>Labor’s unusual ‘07 campaign</h2>
<p>The trick is to be close, but not the same, and it has a record of working in conservative-minded electorates. </p>
<p>Underpinning Kevin Rudd’s defeat of John Howard in 2007 was a carefully calibrated reassurance that Howard’s Australia – in which political correctness had been demonised and social reform moved at a glacial pace – would continue even with a change to a Labor government.</p>
<p>Labor’s plan was to strip the election of the usual contrast between parties, reducing the choice before voters to John Howard or a kind of John Howard 2.0.</p>
<p>In a number of ways, Rudd presented as a prime ministerial simulacrum, updated but only where required to: prioritise “working families”, take faster action on climate change, and offer an exciting public investment bridge to the digital future (the NBN). </p>
<p>So successful was this unusual proposition, it tended to minimise other policy differences between the parties and neutralise the usual fear of change itself among cautious voters.</p>
<p>From a marketing perspective, it was daring given Rudd was in fact the leader of the opposing Labor Party.</p>
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<p>Crucially, it sought simultaneously to share in the government’s credit for economic stewardship – moderate inflation, strong employment, and a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview_2007-_2008/Key_Features">healthy budget surplus</a> again – while outflanking Howard on his right.</p>
<p>Of course there was more to the 2007 changeover than mere campaigning, not least being Howard’s odious industrial relations laws (WorkChoices), an inconvenient <a href="https://www.forbes.com/2007/11/07/australia-rates-howard-markets-econ-cx_rd_1107markets16.html#29cb265c7f60">mid-campaign cash rate hike</a> (to 6.75%), and simple fatigue after a dozen years of Coalition rule.</p>
<p>Even so, there’s no denying that with his lay-preacher persona, non-union background, and claim to be fiscally conservative, Rudd deftly positioned himself as the safe choice for those voters considering change but still concerned with budget discipline and creeping permissiveness.</p>
<p>Similar to Labor’s 2007 strategy, Phelps, McGowan and Sharkie have offered the tribally conservative voter a reduced-risk alternative to the status quo. Or, as some have coined it, “continuity through change”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-cathy-mcgowan-and-rebekha-sharkie-on-the-role-of-community-candidates-103169">Politics Podcast: Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie on the role of community candidates</a>
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<p>But there are also key differences. While Rudd promised measured economic modernisation in a socially-conservative manifesto - opposing same-sex marriage, for example - the new breed of once-were-Liberals flip that around. </p>
<p>They tend to emphasise the low tax, pro-business instincts of conservatives, but are more left-leaning on social policy and the environment. This turns out to reflect much of the electorate also – including many Liberal voters.</p>
<h2>Can Steggall do the same in Warringah?</h2>
<p>It’s a formula with a particular piquancy now given 2019 marks ten years since Tony Abbott rolled Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal leadership over emissions trading. </p>
<p>An acrimonious decade on, and with no government climate or energy policy to speak of, voters’ patience has been strained to breaking point. The endless point-scoring and division has nudged moderately inclined Liberals within the grasp of new independents.</p>
<p>Fittingly, these events are coming to a head most threateningly for the government in Abbott’s own stronghold of Warringah. </p>
<p>Abbott’s vulnerability turns on three things: the standing of the Morrison government come polling day (which may or may not have improved), the campaign prowess of the Steggall operation (unknown), and the extent of declining loyalty by once solid supporters in his electorate. All are in flux.</p>
<p>Steggall’s threshold objective must be to drive Abbott’s primary vote south of 45%. That will not be easy. In 2016, his primary vote tanked by some 9% but he still managed to hold the seat without need for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/warr/">second preferences at 51.65%</a>.</p>
<p>Still, if the zeitgeist is any guide, Steggall’s presentation as “the Liberal for the future against the Liberal for the past” will be appealing to those voters peeved at Abbott’s undermining of Turnbull and specifically the right-wing insurgency against the government’s National Energy Guarantee. </p>
<p>It could also resonate strongly with Liberal backers who were appalled at Abbott’s starring, if roundly ineffective, campaign against marriage equality.</p>
<p>Despite its unwavering support for Abbott through nine elections, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1800.0%7E2017%7EMain%20Features%7EResults%7E1">Warringah voted</a> “yes” to legalising same-sex marriage at the rate of 75% compared to the national rate of 62%. It even exceeded support in the most progressive jurisdiction – the ACT.</p>
<p>Steggall’s backers believe Abbott’s famous resistance to a reform his constituents found uncontroversial will prove it is his failure to move with the times that will force them to move their votes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just as with Kevin07, formerly Coalition-friendly independents gave life-long centre-right voters a way to break ranks without feeling like they were being disloyal. Zali Steggall is doing the same.Mark Kenny, Senior Fellow, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1031692018-09-13T08:47:02Z2018-09-13T08:47:02ZPolitics Podcast: Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie on the role of community candidates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236162/original/file-20180913-177962-e2n5ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Independent Cathy McGowan and the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie share more in common than just sitting on the crossbench. The members for Indi and Mayo respectively have dug in to retain their seats, and they believe there is “a mood” in the community for alternative candidates. </p>
<p>McGowan and Sharkie have given the government their confidence until the Wentworth byelection - after which they will consult with their electorates. They think Kerryn Phelps would have “an excellent chance” of winning the byelection if she runs as an independent. Sharkie said “I would certainly be keen to support her in any capacity and that just might be phone calls just to give her some support”.</p>
<p>Even a few weeks after the leadership spill, Sharkie said “there is still a lot of grieving in Mayo for the loss of Malcolm Turnbull”. The feeling in Indi was “very similar”, McGowan said, “except there was another level” - the loss of an energy policy. </p>
<p>On the Liberal’s problems with unity and women, McGowan said “it’s not just the bullying it’s how they work together as a team. In making themselves into a much better party they might open themselves to greater diversity and to better systems and practices for managing conflict.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>McGowan and Sharkie have given the government their confidence until the Wentworth byelection - after which they will consult with their electorates.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/997572018-07-22T20:10:22Z2018-07-22T20:10:22ZByelection guide: what’s at stake on Super Saturday<p><em>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten have been criss-crossing the country for weeks to spruik their parties’ candidates in Saturday’s all-important byelections – a key test for both the Liberals and Labor ahead of the next federal election.</em></p>
<p><em>Here’s what you need to know about the five electorates up for grabs and, with a federal election likely in the first half of 2019, what’s at stake for Turnbull and Shorten.</em></p>
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<h2>Longman</h2>
<p><em>Chris Salisbury, Research Associate, University of Queensland</em></p>
<p>Longman’s very marginal status, held by Labor’s Susan Lamb by a slim 0.8% prior to her <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-09/high-court-katy-gallagher-citizenship-political-reax/9742130">High Court-enforced resignation</a>, makes this race the most tightly contested on Saturday.</p>
<p>Seasoned observers <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/longman-by-election-2018/">expect this</a> to go the way of most byelection contests – largely distanced from broader federal concerns. Local issues are at play, dominated by arguments over <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/caboolture-hospital-is-ground-zero-for-longman-byelection/news-story/420ba3a1200bc99475b309b01c9c2f12">funding for the Caboolture hospital</a> in the electorate north of Brisbane, as well as for local education and employment support services.</p>
<p>Yet, the race is also being touted by some as a judgement on the major parties’ signature economic policies, and significantly on the performances of <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/wholl-get-the-bloody-nose-in-longman/">both party leaders</a>. Labor has <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/well-make-company-tax-avote-winner-says-labor/news-story/d21e8873d4ab775ba2d70a8938467e8c">campaigned hard</a> on the merits of the Coalition’s proposed company tax cuts. The Liberals, meanwhile, have <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/marginals-pain-for-labor-as-tax-grab-hits-thousands-of-voters-in-key-electorates/news-story/f4debe1869d3a28c61819eb63b5c5e9b">fanned fears</a> among retirees about Labor’s proposed investment savings changes.</p>
<p>Longman is a typical marginal seat in the outer suburban fringe, home to what a dozen years ago would have been called <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-election-2016-what-happened-to-john-howards-battlers-20160705-gpywp2.html">“Howard’s battlers”</a>. The electorate provides a platform for the major parties to road-test policy differentiation and campaign messages on <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/18/2018/1526621735/pub-test-longman-election">“average voters”</a> ahead of the next federal election.</p>
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<p>It’s also fertile ground for the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-24/trust-in-australian-political-system-at-lowest-level/7539706">growing distrust</a> of mainstream politics. One Nation’s Pauline Hanson <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/15/its-bad-here-how-one-nation-is-spooking-major-parties-in-longman">has been prominent in the electorate</a>, attempting to capitalise on negative voter sentiment toward the major parties. Her party even enlisted former Labor leader Mark Latham’s support, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-09/mark-latham-joins-one-nation-longman-campaign-robocall/9959222">voicing robocalls</a> to local residents attacking Shorten.</p>
<p>Lamb is attempting to be re-elected to the seat she <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-08/election-2016-wyatt-roy-concedes-defeat-in-longman/7581984">won unexpectedly</a> from the LNP’s Wyatt Roy in 2016. She benefits from recognition as the incumbent and has the strong backing of her party leader. Shorten <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/shorten-launches-lamb-s-longman-campaign-20180624-p4zneh.html">made a beeline</a> for Longman ahead of the announcement of the byelection date to spruik his candidate.</p>
<p>LNP’s Trevor Ruthenburg also enjoys recognition of sorts as a previous state MP for nearby Kallangur. However, he might have spurned some conservative Longman voters with fresh revelations of an <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/lnp-longman-candidate-trevor-ruthenberg-says-war-medal-claim-was-error-20180717-p4zrv4.html">incorrectly claimed military service medal</a> in his Queensland parliament biography.</p>
<p>Among the minor party candidates, One Nation’s Matthew Stephen will also need to overcome questions <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/the-aussie-electorate-that-faces-a-dreaded-choice/news-story/56dc14df2d2d423da6168cb05c186bae">regarding his business dealings</a> to build on his party’s 9.4% primary vote in the 2016 election. </p>
<p>Labor’s concerted campaigning has Lamb a slight favourite to be returned. However, a Coalition win might convince Turnbull to call an early election. This then raises the question: could a poor result for Labor <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/the-longman-and-shorten-of-it/">put enough pressure on Shorten</a> to prompt the party to change leaders to better combat the PM’s standing?</p>
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<h2>Braddon</h2>
<p><em>Michael Lester, PhD candidate, University of Tasmania</em></p>
<p>For an election that won’t change the status quo in parliament, the Braddon byelection is getting a great deal of attention.</p>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/speech-at-the-braddon-by-election-campaign-launch">Turnbull</a> and <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5790318629001">Shorten</a> have made multiple visits to campaign for their candidates, with support also coming from of a host of their cabinet and shadow cabinet colleagues.</p>
<p>Braddon is a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/braddon-by-election-2018/">notoriously fickle electorate</a>, having changed hands four times since 1996, and the margins are always tight. This election is no different. All the polls indicate it is a close race. </p>
<p>In 2016, Labor’s Justine Keay <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/labors-justine-keay-in-awe-of-upset-win-in-braddon/news-story/611f65567b235692ca0d5d9a25e6d3e6?nk=41a68354e1d8b1672e879cc5977d2f89-1531971783">won the seat</a> with a 2.2% lead over then-sitting Liberal member Brett Whiteley. She was later <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-09/tas-seat-of-braddon-set-for-by-election/9742950">forced to resign</a> after her UK citizenship was revealed. Both candidates are standing again, but neither is considered to have strong personal followings. </p>
<p>Polls in the <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5513995/labor-gaining-in-braddon-by-election-race-poll-suggests/">first week of July</a> showed the gap between the parties has narrowed. This means the result will likely come down to the preferences of independents and minor parties, particularly the Greens’ Jarrod Edwards, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidate Brett Neal and independent Craig Garland. All three are likely to favour Labor.</p>
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<p>The differences between the campaign styles and tactics of the two major parties are striking. </p>
<p>The Liberals have used incumbency at both the state and federal level to frame their campaign around their economic records and budget infrastructure spending, holding photo opportunities around <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5496857/disaster-proofing-latrobe/">a series of project announcements</a>.</p>
<p>Labor, meanwhile, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-05/braddon-fence-sitters-central-to-bill-shorten-momentum-battle/9942742">is using the campaign</a> to road-test a swag of policies and messages. Key among them are wage stagnation, the loss of penalty rates, the <a href="http://www.billshorten.com.au/braddon_campaign_launch_devonport_sunday_8_july_2018">“scourge of labour hire companies”</a>, the bad behaviour of banks and the Liberals’ support for corporate tax cuts. </p>
<p>Shorten took most by surprise by also promising an AU$25 million grant to support a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/labor-commit-25m-to-help-establish-a-tasmanian-afl-team-20180707-p4zq4q.html">Tasmanian AFL team </a>at a time when the Aussie game is in crisis in one of its foundation states. However, Labor seems to be getting better traction with promises to restore funding for essential services like health care and education.</p>
<p>The real impact of the Braddon byelection is likely to be on the political future of the two party leaders, the timing of the next federal election and the choice of the policies they choose to run on.</p>
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<h2>Mayo</h2>
<p><em>Rob Manwaring, Senior Lecturer, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders University</em></p>
<p>The campaign in Mayo is symptomatic of a wider problem that has beset Liberals in South Australia – a failure to lock in so-called blue-ribbon safe seats. </p>
<p>Mayo is now a straight two-way fight between the incumbent Centre Alliance’s Rebekah Sharkie and Liberal Georgina Downer. Downer’s success or failure could well be a strong signifier of the strength of Malcolm Turnbull’s government.</p>
<p>Polling has Sharkie on track to hold onto the seat, despite her <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/independent-mp-rebekha-sharkie-resigns-from-parliament-over-dual-citizenship">citizenship problems</a> triggering the byelection. A <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/aap/article-5879021/Sharkie-romp-Mayo-election-poll.html">late-June Reachtel poll</a> had Sharkie leading Downer by 62% to 38% in two-candidate voting. </p>
<p>Sharkie’s surge in the polls is striking, given that a large part of her <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-federal-election-2016-jamie-briggs-concedes-seat-of-mayo-to-rebekha-sharkie-20160702-gpx4jv.html">win over then-Liberal Jamie Briggs</a> in 2013 seemed to rest on the personal unpopularity of Briggs.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-disillusioned-voters-find-it-easy-to-embrace-a-crossbencher-like-rebekha-sharkie-100272">Grattan on Friday: Disillusioned voters find it easy to embrace a crossbencher like Rebekha Sharkie</a>
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<p>Yet, as has been proven in state-level races in South Australia before, voters in notionally safe “non-Labor” seats are often reluctant to give up strong local independents. Despite its disappointing showing in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-win-south-australian-election-as-xenophon-crushed-while-labor-stuns-the-greens-in-batman-93355">recent state election</a>, the Xenophon team retains deep residual support in South Australia.</p>
<p>The Mayo campaign is an intriguing confluence of local and national issues. Sharkie is pushing hard on a range of local issues, and her support to have the Great Australian Bight <a href="http://www.rebekhasharkie.com.au/world_heritage_bid_for_the_bight">listed for World Heritage status</a> to safeguard it from oil drilling also targets a perceived weakness of Downer’s - environment issues. </p>
<p>Downer, seeking to secure her family dynasty, is playing to different strengths – especially her close network with the Liberal hierarchy. (She is the daughter of former foreign minister Alexander.) Since announcing her candidacy, Downer has had <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-02/turnbull-joins-downer-on-mayo-by-election-campaign-trail/9827836">notable visits from Turnbull</a> and others. She boasts influence unavailable to her rivals, evidenced by her securing of federal funding for a new aquatic centre in Mount Barker. </p>
<p>Strikingly, immigration has become a new issue in the campaign. <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/mayo-candidate-georgina-downer-criticises-rebekha-sharkie-over-asylum-seeker-policy/news-story/88f32670796598791d68f65a1e46554f">Downer’s comments about immigration</a> may stoke local fears that the Inverbrackie site will be re-opened for mainland asylum seeker detentions. </p>
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<h2>Perth and Fremantle</h2>
<p><em>Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch University</em></p>
<p>Labor will win both races being contested in Western Australia in Saturday’s byelections. That’s not a brave prediction. The Liberals aren’t running candidates.</p>
<p>Some analysts believe it was the <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/opinion/joe-spagnolo/joe-spagnolo-liberals-wont-run-in-perth-but-cannot-hide-ng-b88840090z">wrong decision</a> by the Liberals, given that a minimal campaigning effort wouldn’t have cost that much and it’s unclear how voters will react when the Liberals do put up candidates in the federal election.</p>
<p>But the decision actually makes a lot of sense. Labor has held both seats – Perth and Fremantle – for much of their existence. (The electorates were created in 1901.) Labor even held on in Fremantle in the 1975 election, which was the last time it lost Perth.</p>
<p>On top of this, the WA Liberals <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-11/barnetts-reign-in-wa-over-as-labor-enjoys-huge-swing/8346296">had been swept from government</a> last year as a result of a 20% swing against them across the state. And there were no signs of the federal Liberals doing much to change anything.</p>
<p>So, while Perth’s <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/by-elections/fed-2018-06-perth.htm">3.3% margin</a> looks close, the Liberals chose not to run a candidate there. Likewise in Fremantle, which is even less competitive, with a <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/by-elections/fed-2018-06-fremantle.htm">margin of 7.5%</a>. The decision not only saves the Liberals money, it won’t expose their weak support in WA.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberal-rebel-dean-smith-to-fight-party-decision-not-to-contest-perth-byelection-96950">Liberal rebel Dean Smith to fight party decision not to contest Perth byelection</a>
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<p>Some Liberals may have regretted the move after the party won the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-24/no-simple-explanation-for-shock-darling-range-result/9903984">byelection for the state seat of Darling Range</a> last month, but <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/labors-byelection-strife-candidate-colleen-yates-quits-over-false-cv-claims/news-story/e0f1793f4b7ae93669f76b4f23e94164">Labor got a lot wrong</a> in that campaign.</p>
<p>The Liberals’ decision not to run in Perth and Fremantle has brought the Greens more into the spotlight. With no other seats to talk about and no major party competition to drown them out, the Greens should be able to do something meaningful in these byelections.</p>
<p>Perth and Fremantle are exactly the type of inner metropolitan seat the Greens should be favoured to win, but their candidates have never gained more than 18% of first-preference voting in previous contests in the electorates. And nothing looks likely to change this time around.</p>
<p>If Greens candidates can’t put themselves in a position to win Perth and Fremantle in these byelections and demonstrate they are to be a meaningful political force, then they likely never will.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is a Research Associate with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Cook, Michael Lester, and Rob Manwaring do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Saturday, five federal seats will have a byelection, with particular attention being paid to tight races in Longman and Braddon. And all have implications for the major parties and their leaders.Rob Manwaring, Senior Lecturer, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders UniversityChris Salisbury, Research Associate, The University of QueenslandIan Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch UniversityMichael Lester, PhD candidate, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1002722018-07-19T11:04:07Z2018-07-19T11:04:07ZGrattan on Friday: Disillusioned voters find it easy to embrace a crossbencher like Rebekha Sharkie<p>More than two decades ago Alexander Downer stood aside as opposition leader for John Howard, paving the way for the 1996 Coalition election win. This week Howard was in Mayo, his former foreign minister’s one-time South Australian seat, campaigning for Downer’s daughter Georgina.</p>
<p>When the Super Saturday byelections were called, the Liberals thought they had a good chance to pick up Mayo, lost in 2016 to Rebekha Sharkie, from the Nick Xenophon Team (now Centre Alliance).</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/leaders-seek-underdog-status-in-byelection-battle-to-be-top-dog-100370">Leaders seek underdog status in byelection battle to be top dog</a>
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<p>Sharkie resigned in the citizenship crisis. The Liberals initially believed Downer was an ideal candidate, despite her living in Melbourne. But soon polling suggested another story - Sharkie <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-makes-company-tax-fight-all-about-malcolm-turnbulls-money-98838">was leading</a> Downer 62-38% in polls last month.</p>
<p>Some Liberals talk about a <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/libs-hope-for-twostep-strategy-to-win-back-mayo-20180715-h12q2c">two-stage assault</a> on the seat, arguing that if Downer doesn’t win this time, she’ll be well set up for next year’s election.</p>
<p>Well, not if you look at the history. If Sharkie can hold off the Liberals on July 28, she should be in a strong position for the general election.</p>
<p>It’s very hard for a crossbencher to get into the House of Representatives. But when they do, these small players can be difficult to blast out.</p>
<p>Andrew Wilkie won the Tasmanian seat of Denison from Labor in 2010, and retained it in 2013 and 2016. Cathy McGowan wrested Indi (Victoria) from Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella in 2013, to be easily re-elected in 2016.</p>
<p>The late Peter Andren held Calare (NSW) from 1996 until he stepped down before the 2007 election. He had taken the seat from Labor; subsequently it has been in Nationals’ hands.</p>
<p>Tony Windsor grabbed New England from the Nationals in 2001 and won three subsequent elections, retiring before the 2013 election. He almost certainly would have lost if he had contested then, but that was because of special circumstances – although from a conservative electorate, he’d sided with the Gillard government in the hung parliament. Windsor failed in a bid to oust Barnaby Joyce from the seat in 2016.</p>
<p>It was a similar story with Rob Oakeshott, who won the Nationals seat of Lyne (NSW) at a 2008 byelection, retained it in 2010, then backed the Labor government. He didn’t contest in 2013 (he too appeared headed for defeat), but he drastically reduced the Nationals’ margin in Cowper in 2016.</p>
<p>Bob Katter was elected as a National in 1993 but quit the party in 2001, comfortably winning several elections as an independent. In 2011 he launched the Katter’s Australian Party; his victory was tight in 2013 but easier in 2016.</p>
<p>The Greens Adam Bandt has a stranglehold on the seat of Melbourne.</p>
<p>Crossbenchers who are successful in House of Representative seats seem to forge a special bond with their communities. In this time of massive disillusionment with politics and distrust of politicians, they are often seen by their constituents as a different sort of beast, as “our” person, less tainted than those from the big parties.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/video-michelle-grattan-on-the-mayo-byelection-and-crossbenchers-in-the-parliament-100325">VIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the Mayo byelection and crossbenchers in the parliament</a>
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<p>This came through in University of Canberra’s Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis (IGPA) <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-indi-project-mcgowan-lacks-clout-mirabella-is-embarrassing-say-local-soft-voters-60220">research</a> before the 2016 election in Indi, where voters were full of praise for McGowan, although with the caveat that her independent status meant she lacked power.</p>
<p>It’s only when a parliament is “hung” or nearly so, that lower house crossbenchers gain serious clout.</p>
<p>IGPA has conducted four focus groups in Mayo this week. The 39 participants, covering all age groups, were “soft” voters, currently unaligned or rethinking their position from the last election.</p>
<p>Sharp messages emerge in the <a href="http://www.thepolicyspace.com.au/2018/19/255-a-tale-of-two-mayos-community-perspectives-on-the-2018-mayo-by-election">report</a> by IGPA director Mark Evans and Max Halupka.</p>
<p>Sharkie is seen as having performed well, as visible and approachable, engaging and caring. She’s viewed as part of Mayo (“she bleeds Mayo”; “she works, acts and lives in Mayo and has Mayo in her heart”). The dual citizenship issue isn’t held against her.</p>
<p>Downer, despite her family background, is regarded as an outsider; “entitled”, “privileged”, “snobby”, “stuck up” are adjectives used about her. Not one participant argued in support of her. In contrast, her father was seen as “Mayo through and through”.</p>
<p>Evans and Halupka conclude: “Sharkie and Downer are perceived to represent two very different Mayos. Downer represents old ‘blue ribbon’ Mayo (as did the disgraced [former Liberal member] Jamie Briggs), home to the Adelaide elite and Sharkie represents new Mayo which is reflected with changing community demographics which include households from a much broader range of income groups including young families who are looking for active community minded representation.”</p>
<p>These Mayo voters disdain the behaviour of federal politicians and “adversarial politics”; they are appalled by the Leyonhjelm affair; they want cross-party co-operation on key matters, especially energy, growth and the environment, which are issues they’re concerned about.</p>
<p>They trust Sharkie; they don’t trust ministers or Bill Shorten. They want conviction politicians and politics. “Turnbull is viewed to be performing better but is still perceived to be lacking conviction; Shorten is purely viewed as a ‘negative politician’ or ‘spoiler’,” Evans and Halupka say.</p>
<p>While there is no statistical significance in these focus group numbers, the trend is notable. “All of the Labor voters last time are moving to either [Sharkie] or the Greens candidate [Major Sumner]. And half the Liberal voters are moving to her.</p>
<p>"On the basis of this tiny sample Labor is collapsing and Shorten is performing very badly across all cohorts particularly amongst former Labor voters.</p>
<p>"Sharkie’s supporters believe that her independence from party is an absolute virtue.” (“I like her because she’s not associated with the big parties and she’s local and cares,” said one participant.)</p>
<p>It should be added that Labor, with no chance in this seat, is mainly interested in boosting Sharkie’s vote via preferences. It is giving Mayo perfunctory attention – its overwhelming focus is on defending its very marginal seats of Longman (Queensland) and Braddon (Tasmania).</p>
<p>In campaigning, Sharkie is getting support from other crossbenchers, with McGowan, Wilkie, and even Katter pitching in. She’s raised $65,000 in micro donations, and recruited more than 800 volunteers.</p>
<p>Given that communities bond with their crossbencher MPs, it becomes a challenge for the major parties to decide the best way to campaign against them.</p>
<p>In particular, will the heavily negative campaign the Liberals are now running against Sharkie eat into her support in these late days, or will people just see this as picking on someone they like?</p>
<p>The conventional wisdom is that negative campaigning works. But trying to knock out an opponent who’s seen as something of a local champion can be a tough ask, as the Liberals are finding.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100272/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s very hard for a crossbencher to get into the House of Representatives. But when they do, these small players can be difficult to blast out.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/988442018-06-26T02:28:54Z2018-06-26T02:28:54ZPoll wrap: Labor and LNP tied in Longman, Sharkie’s massive lead in Mayo, but can we trust seat polls?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/224609/original/file-20180625-152176-n46jnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Centre Alliance's Rebeka Sharkie looks to be a strong contestant in Mayo's by-election. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Kelly Barnes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Longman and Mayo are two of the five seats that will be contested at byelections on July 28. <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/longman-and-mayo-new-polling-company-tax-cuts-and-voter-priorities-government-revenue">ReachTEL polls</a> for the left-wing Australia Institute had a 50-50 tie between Labor and the LNP in Longman, and a massive 62-38 lead for the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie over the Liberals’ Georgina Downer in Mayo.</p>
<p>These polls represent a two-point gain for Labor in Longman since a late May ReachTEL for Sky News, and a four-point gain for Sharkie since early June. Both polls were conducted with 720 to 740 respondents on June 21 – the day the Coalition passed its <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-21/income-tax-cuts-pass/9893376">complete income tax cuts package</a> through the Senate.</p>
<p>Primary votes in Longman were 39.1% Labor, 34.9% LNP, 14.7% One Nation, 4.4% Greens, 3.7% Other and 3.2% undecided. With Labor well ahead on primary votes, the LNP is benefiting from a strong flow of One Nation preferences.</p>
<p>I believe this is the first Longman poll that has asked for candidate names, rather than just parties. Labor’s MP Susan Lamb resigned over the citizenship fiasco, but will recontest. The LNP’s candidate is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-newman-government-mp-to-contest-wafer-thin-federal-byelection-20180522-p4zgw2.html">Trevor Ruthenberg</a>, former MP for the state seat of Kallangur, which is <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/images/maps/pdf/Longman.pdf">close to Longman</a>. Both major party candidates are likely to be well-known to Longman voters.</p>
<p>In Mayo, primary votes were 43.5% Sharkie, 32.7% Downer, 9.0% Greens, 8.2% Labor, 4.1% Other and 2.6% undecided. I discussed potential problems with Downer’s candidacy here.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-coalitions-record-newspoll-losing-streak-and-rebekha-sharkie-has-large-lead-in-mayo-98304">Poll wrap: Coalition's record Newspoll losing streak, and Rebekha Sharkie has large lead in Mayo</a>
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<p>The ReachTEL Australia Institute polls for both Longman and Mayo repeated a question on the company tax cuts that I criticised in the above article.</p>
<h2>National Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor (54-46 respondent allocated)</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/polling-gets-personal-what-voters-really-think-of-malcolm-turnbull-and-bill-shorten-20180624-p4znen.html?_ga=2.39238371.1934013238.1529908269-1295107726.1489520971">Ipsos poll</a> for the Fairfax papers, conducted June 20-23 from a sample of 1,200, gave Labor a 53-47 lead by 2016 election preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the post-budget Ipsos in mid-May. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (down one), 35% Labor (down two), 12% Greens (up one) and 6% One Nation (up one).</p>
<p>Labor’s 54-46 lead in the post-budget Ipsos was an outlier, with other polls showing better results for the Coalition. This week’s Ipsos is in line with other polls by 2016 election preferences.</p>
<p>Almost all polling this term has given the Coalition a better position in respondent allocated polling than using the previous election method. This Ipsos poll is an exception, with a 54-46 lead for Labor using respondent preferences, a point better for Labor than the previous election method.</p>
<p>Ipsos is the only current Australian pollster that uses live phone polling. It tends to have weaker primary votes for the major parties than other polls, and stronger primary votes for the Greens and Others.</p>
<p>50% (down one) approved of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance, and 44% (up five) disapproved, for a net approval of +6. Bill Shorten’s net approval was -13, down one point. Turnbull led Shorten by 51-33 as better PM (52-32 in May). Ipsos gives Turnbull stronger ratings than other pollsters, particularly Newspoll.</p>
<p>Turnbull led Shorten on nine of 11 attributes; the exceptions were on social policy and confidence of his party. The largest Turnbull leads were on economic policy (67-48) and foreign policy (64-45). Since April 2016, attribute scores have moved in Shorten’s favour.</p>
<p>In additional questions from last week’s Newspoll, voters favoured Turnbull over Shorten on asylum seekers by 47-30, down from a 52-27 margin in December 2017. 37% thought Labor would open the floodgates to asylum seekers if it wins the next election, 26% thought Labor would improve the current policy, and 24% thought there would be no difference.</p>
<h2>ReachTEL’s large error in Darling Range (WA) byelection</h2>
<p>On Saturday, the Liberals won the byelection for the Western Australian state seat of Darling Range by a 53.3-46.7 margin against Labor, a 9.1% swing to the Liberals since the 2017 state election. The byelection was caused by the resignation of Labor MP Barry Urban over allegations of fraudulent behaviour. You can read more at <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/liberals-win-darling-range-wa-byelection/">my personal website</a>.</p>
<p>The major implication of this byelection to the July 28 federal byelections is that individual seat polls can be very wrong. Just one week before the Darling Range byelection, a ReachTEL poll for <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/labor-set-for-victory-in-darling-range-by-election-despite-barry-urban-saga-reachtel-poll-says-ng-b88862892z?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1529123973442">The West Australian</a> gave Labor a 54-46 lead, so there was a seven-point error in this poll.</p>
<p>The Darling Range poll was skewed to Labor, but in general seat polls have had large misses in both directions. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2016/07/25/pollster-performance-review/">Poll Bludger</a> reviewed the performance of seat polls at the last federal election in a July 2016 article. National and state-wide polls have been far more accurate in Australia.</p>
<p>If a seven-point error is applied to the Longman and Mayo polls, then Labor’s two party vote in Longman could be between 43% and 57%, and Sharkie could be between 55% and 69% in Mayo.</p>
<p>Another concern about the Longman poll is the unbelievable age breakdowns. Young people nationally are the strongest demographic for Labor and the Greens, but ReachTEL gave Labor just 20.4% among those aged 18-34, behind One Nation’s 23.0% and the LNP’s 38.8%. Among those aged 51-65, Labor had 53.8% and the LNP just 25.8%.</p>
<h2>In brief: Turkish President Erdoğan re-elected</h2>
<p>In Sunday’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_general_election,_2018">Turkish election</a>, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has dominated Turkish politics since 2002, was re-elected with 52.6% of the vote, avoiding a runoff election. Erdoğan’s AKP party lost its single-party parliamentary majority, but will form a coalition with a right-wing ally.</p>
<p>In April 2017, a constitutional referendum granted far more powers to the president at the expense of parliament. Erdoğan will arguably now have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/24/erdogan-claims-victory-in-turkish-presidential-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">powers comparable to a feudal</a> king.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98844/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the contest for the five ‘Super Saturday’ byelections heating up, Longman hangs in the balance, while Rebekha Sharkie has a solid lead in Mayo.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/983042018-06-19T05:51:07Z2018-06-19T05:51:07ZPoll wrap: Coalition’s record Newspoll losing streak, and Rebekha Sharkie has large lead in Mayo<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/223728/original/file-20180619-126543-1b92j1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Recently, hard-right Coalition MPs have not had as much influence on government policy as they used to, and Malcolm Turnbull is probably benefiting from this.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/06/17/newspoll-52-48-labor-10/">week’s Newspoll</a>, conducted June 14-17 from a sample of 1,660, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, unchanged since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 38% Labor (steady), 10% Greens (up one) and 6% One Nation (down two).</p>
<p>This Newspoll is Malcolm Turnbull’s 34th consecutive loss as prime minister, four ahead of Tony Abbott. According to analyst <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/06/federal-newspoll-records-page.html">Kevin Bonham</a>, this is the worst Newspoll losing streak for a government, with Turnbull and the Coalition now one ahead of Julia Gillard’s 33 successive losses as PM.</p>
<p>Prior to July 2015, Newspoll was conducted by landline live phone polling with samples of about 1,100. Since July 2015, Newspoll has been administered by Galaxy Research, using robopolling and online methods with samples of about 1,700. The new Newspoll is much less volatile than the old Newspoll, so trailing parties have far less chance of getting lucky with an outlier 50-50 poll.</p>
<p>In this Newspoll, the total vote for Labor and the Greens was up one to 48%, and the total vote for the Coalition and One Nation was down two to 44%. This matches a late March Newspoll as the highest vote for the left-of-centre parties this term. These changes would normally give Labor a two party gain, but it is likely the previous Newspoll was rounded up to 52%, and that this one has been rounded down.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-maintains-its-lead-as-voters-reject-company-tax-cuts-wins-on-redrawn-boundaries-94494">Poll wrap: Labor maintains its lead as voters reject company tax cuts; wins on redrawn boundaries</a>
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<p>40% were satisfied with Turnbull’s performance (up one), and 50% were dissatisfied (also up one), for a net approval of -10. Bill Shorten’s net approval was down one point to -22. Turnbull continued to lead Shorten by a large 46-31 as better PM (47-30 previously).</p>
<p>Turnbull’s ratings improvement has been sustained since the budget. It is likely he is benefiting from the tax cuts in the next financial year. Recently, hard-right Coalition MPs have not had as much influence on government policy as they used to, and Turnbull is probably benefiting from this.</p>
<p>While Turnbull’s ratings improved, I believe the greater focus on the government’s tax policies and the publicity regarding Barnaby Joyce are holding back the Coalition’s vote. One Nation probably slumped owing to the split between Pauline Hanson and Brian Burston, who is now a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-18/brian-burston-will-run-for-clive-palmers-party-next-election/9879984">senator for Clive Palmer’s</a> new United Australia Party.</p>
<p>Both Newspoll and Essential’s fieldwork was mostly conducted before the federal Liberal council passed a motion to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-16/liberal-members-vote-to-privatise-abc-move-embassy-to-jerusalem/9877524">privatise the ABC</a> on Saturday. This vote is likely to be embarrassing for Turnbull and Coalition ministers.</p>
<p>The Australian has been campaigning against the Australian National University’s refusal to allow a Western civilisation course. Most voters would have heard nothing about this issue. It is not surprising that, when given a <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8a1094822f81afd597240f655ace0f38?width=650">question skewed in favour</a> of the Western civilisation course, voters backed it by a 66-19 margin.</p>
<h2>Essential: 52-48 to Labor</h2>
<p>This week’s Essential poll, conducted June 14-17 from a sample of just over 1,000, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two) and 35% Labor (down two). Tables have not yet been published, so <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/06/19/essential-research-52-48-labor-18/">The Poll Bludger’s</a> report is the best for domestic issues.</p>
<p>79% supported the first stage of the income tax cuts that are introduced in the next financial year, but only 37% supported the third stage, which is scheduled to be phased in from 2024 – these tax cuts would flatten the tax scales. Support and opposition to the company tax cuts were tied at 39% each.</p>
<p>From <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/jun/19/are-trumps-shenanigans-turning-us-off-international-relations">Peter Lewis</a> in The Guardian, 35% thought the agreement between US President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un would make the world safer, 8% less safe, and 41% thought it would make no difference.</p>
<p>Despite Trump’s presidency, 50% consider it very important for Australia to have a close relationship with the US, followed by the UK at 47% and China at 39%. Russia at 17% and Saudi Arabia at 14% are at the bottom of this table.</p>
<p>By 54-11, voters had a favourable view of New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern, followed by Canadian PM Justin Trudeau (54-14), German Chancellor Angela Merkel (43-18), French President Emmanuel Macron (42-15) and UK PM Theresa May (42-19). Trump had an unfavourable 64-22 rating, Russian President Vladimir Putin 56-19 unfavourable and Kim Jong-un 68-9.</p>
<h2>Two Mayo polls give Rebekha Sharkie 58-42 leads over Georgina Downer</h2>
<p>On July 28, Mayo is one of five seats up for federal byelections. The incumbent, Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie, was forced to resign over the dual citizenship fiasco, but will recontest. The Liberal candidate is Georgina Downer, daughter of Alexander Downer, who <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Mayo">held Mayo from</a> 1984 to 2008.</p>
<p>A ReachTEL poll for the left-wing Australia Institute and a Galaxy poll for The Advertiser both gave <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/06/08/by-elections-and-preselections/">Sharkie a 58-42 lead</a> over Downer. Primary votes in Galaxy were 44% Sharkie, 37% Downer, 11% Labor and 6% Greens. In ReachTEL, primary votes were 41.4% Sharkie, 35.5% Downer, 11.1% Greens and 8.2% Labor. </p>
<p>These poll results represent a 3% swing to Sharkie in Mayo compared to the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-188.htm">2016 election</a>. The ReachTEL poll was conducted June 5 from a sample of 1,031, and the Galaxy poll June 7 from a sample of 515.</p>
<p>In the Galaxy poll, 62% had a positive view of Sharkie and just 10% a negative view. In contrast, 31% had a positive view of Downer and 41% a negative view.</p>
<p>The Centre Alliance was Nick Xenophon’s former party, and the expectation was that Sharkie would follow Xenophon down. However, it appears that she has built up a strong profile in Mayo that is independent of Xenophon’s appeal. It is likely Sharkie will defy the collapse of her party to retain Mayo.</p>
<p>It could be perceived that Downer thinks she should have the seat because it was her father’s seat. Other weaknesses for Downer are <a href="https://ipa.org.au/author/georginadowner">her membership</a> of the hard-right Institute of Public Affairs, and her <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/mayo-by-election-pm-defends-georgina-downer-against-criticism">absence from Mayo</a> for the last 20 years.</p>
<p>The Australia Institute ReachTEL has left-skewed <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/wp-content/blogs.dir/6/files/2018/06/TAI-5June2018-Mayo-TAX.pdf">additional questions</a>. Question 2, regarding company tax cuts, gave unpopular examples of large companies — banks, mining companies and supermarkets. It then offered three options for company tax rates (increased, kept the same or decreased), with only one unfavourable to The Australia Institute’s left-wing agenda.</p>
<p>Three weeks ago, The Australian had a right-skewed company tax cut question in Newspoll, but left-wing organisations often do the same thing, though their profile is far lower than Newspoll.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-newspoll-asks-skewed-company-tax-cut-question-as-labor-gains-97314">Poll wrap: Newspoll asks skewed company tax cut question as Labor gains</a>
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<h2>In brief: Darling Range (WA) byelection, Conservatives win in Ontario and Colombia</h2>
<p>A byelection for the Western Australian state seat of <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/by-elections/wa-2018-07-darlingrange.htm">Darling Range</a> will be held on Saturday. At the March 2017 state election, Labor won Darling Range by 55.8–44.2 against the Liberals, a massive 18.9% swing to Labor from the 2013 election. However, Labor member Barry Urban was forced to resign over allegations of fraudulent behaviour. A ReachTEL poll for <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/labor-set-for-victory-in-darling-range-by-election-despite-barry-urban-saga-reachtel-poll-says-ng-b88862892z?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1529123973442">The West Australian</a> gave Labor a 54-46 lead in Darling Range.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-romps-to-landslide-win-in-wa-election-74425">Labor romps to landslide win in WA election</a>
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<p>At the June 7 Ontario provincial election, the Conservatives won 76 of the 124 seats, the left-wing NDP 40, the centre-left Liberals seven and the Greens one. The Liberals had governed Ontario for the last 15 years. The Conservatives won just 40.5% of the popular vote, with 33.6% NDP, 19.6% Liberals and 4.6% Greens. First Past the Post, which is used in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Canada#System">all federal and provincial</a> Canadian elections, greatly benefited the Conservatives with the left vote split. You can read more at <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/conservatives-win-june-7-ontario-election/">my personal website</a>.</p>
<p>At the Colombian <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_presidential_election,_2018">presidential runoff election</a> held on Sunday, conservative Iván Duque Márquez defeated the left-wing Gustavo Petro by a 54.0-41.8 margin. Duque <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/colombia-is-heading-for-a-run-off-presidential-election.html">opposes the 2016 peace deal</a> between the government and guerrilla fighters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98304/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the Turnbull government’s ratings have improved, the focus on its tax policies and the Barnaby Joyce story may be holding back its vote.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/964012018-05-10T06:34:04Z2018-05-10T06:34:04ZCentre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie most vulnerable at byelections forced by dual citizenship saga<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218395/original/file-20180510-185500-18viidv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rebekha Sharkie's seat of Mayo is the most likely to change hands at the byelection, after she resigned in the light of the dual citizenship saga.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Wednesday morning, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dual-citizenship-debacle-claims-five-more-mps-and-sounds-a-stern-warning-for-future-parliamentarians-96267">High Court disqualified</a> Labor’s ACT Senator, Katy Gallagher. As a senator, Gallagher’s disqualification will not require a byelection; she will be replaced by Labor’s second candidate on its ACT ticket, David Smith.</p>
<p>However, Gallagher’s case was seen as a test case for four House members: Susan Lamb (Labor, electorate of Longman), Josh Wilson (Labor, Fremantle), Justine Keay (Labor, Braddon) and Rebekha Sharkie (Centre Alliance, Mayo).</p>
<p>By Wednesday afternoon, all four of these members had announced they would resign from Parliament and recontest their seats at subsequent byelections. With the <a href="https://theconversation.com/reachtel-poll-52-48-to-labor-as-party-faces-perth-byelection-and-strong-swings-to-us-democrats-95940">Perth byelection</a> that was required last week, there are likely to be five federal byelections on the same date.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dual-citizenship-debacle-claims-five-more-mps-and-sounds-a-stern-warning-for-future-parliamentarians-96267">Dual citizenship debacle claims five more MPs – and sounds a stern warning for future parliamentarians</a>
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<p>All byelections will be held on 2016 boundaries, even if there has been a redistribution in the state in which the byelection takes place. As the incumbent will be recontesting, the byelections caused by section 44 are different from most byelections.</p>
<p>At the 2016 election, Labor gained both Braddon and Longman by defeating Coalition incumbents. Labor’s <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-302.htm">0.8% margin</a> in Longman, and <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-193.htm">2.2% margin</a> in Braddon do not reflect the “sophomore surge” effect. </p>
<p>If Longman and Braddon were held at a general election, Labor would expect to do better in those seats than nationally, as their new incumbents should receive a personal vote bonus, while the Coalition loses the personal votes of their previous members.</p>
<p>A negative for Labor in Longman is One Nation preferences. In 2016, One Nation won 9.4%, and their how-to-vote cards put Labor ahead of the LNP; Labor won 56.5% of One Nation preferences. One Nation is now more pro-Coalition than in 2016, and is likely to recommend preferences to the LNP at the byelection. However, One Nation’s primary votes are likely to come more from the LNP than Labor, mitigating damage from One Nation’s preferences.</p>
<p>Labor has a <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-240.htm">7.5% margin</a> in Fremantle, and the Liberals are more likely to focus on Perth (Labor by 3.3%), where the incumbent Labor member is not recontesting.</p>
<p>In Mayo, the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie (formerly Nick Xenophon Team) holds a <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-188.htm">5.0% margin</a> against the Liberals. However, Xenophon’s attempt to win the balance of power in the South Australian election failed dismally, as his party won zero lower house seats.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-win-south-australian-election-as-xenophon-crushed-while-labor-stuns-the-greens-in-batman-93355">Liberals win South Australian election as Xenophon crushed, while Labor stuns the Greens in Batman</a>
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<p>It is likely Xenophon’s failure will affect Sharkie, although her profile as a sitting member will help her. Sharkie’s interest would be best served by running as an independent, not endorsing Centre Alliance policies. The former Liberal MP Jamie Briggs was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-29/mal-brough-and-jamie-briggs-stand-down-from-frontbench/7058266">negatively perceived</a>, explaining some of the swing to Sharkie in 2016.</p>
<p>On a two party basis, the Liberals hold a 5.4% margin against Labor, a 7.2% swing to Labor since the 2013 election. However, some of this swing is explained by Briggs, and Labor is unlikely to be competitive with a better Liberal candidate.</p>
<p>In summary, I think it is likely that Labor will hold all four of its seats, and that Sharkie is the most vulnerable at these byelections.</p>
<h2>Essential: 53-47 to Labor</h2>
<p>This <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Essential-Report-080518.pdf">week’s Essential</a>, conducted May 3-6 from a sample of 1,033, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since last fortnight. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 37% Labor (up one), 10% Greens (down one) and 6% One Nation (down two). This will be the last poll conducted before the budget.</p>
<p>Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval was -2, up one point since April. Bill Shorten’s net approval was -4, up four points. Turnbull led Shorten 40-26 as better PM (41-26 in April).</p>
<p>39% (up six since November 2017) thought the Australian economy was good, 32% (down six) thought it was neither good nor bad, and 24% (steady) thought it was poor.</p>
<p>Since May 2017, there was an 11-point increase in those thinking the budget should increase assistance to the unemployed, and eight-point increases for aged pensions, affordable housing and assistance to the needy. The only large decrease was for public transport infrastructure (down six).</p>
<p>28% thought more funding for schools and hospitals most important for the budget, followed by 22% for supporting industries that create jobs, 17% for personal tax cuts, 12% for building infrastructure and 8% for fully funding the NDIS.</p>
<h2>Status quo result likely in Tasmanian upper house elections</h2>
<p>Every May, two or three of Tasmania’s 15 upper house seats hold elections for a six-year term. Currently the left has control with eight seats (four Labor and four left-wing independents). On Saturday, elections were held in Hobart and Prosser.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dems-easily-win-virginia-and-new-jersey-governors-left-gains-control-of-tas-upper-house-86770">Dems easily win Virginia and New Jersey governors. Left gains control of Tas upper house</a>
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<p>Tasmanian <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/05/legislative-council-2018-hobart-and.html">analyst Kevin Bonham</a> has more details. In Hobart, left-wing incumbent independent Rob Valentine defeated another left-wing independent challenger, 61-39, with the Liberals a distant third. </p>
<p>In Prosser, in a field of 13, <a href="https://tec.tas.gov.au/Legislative_Council_Elections/LegislativeCouncilElections_2018/Results/Prosser/index.html">Liberal Jane Howlett</a> had 26.1%, Labor’s Janet Lambert 22.0% and independent Steve Mav 19.8%. Bonham thinks Howlett is most likely to win when preferences are distributed next Tuesday, the final day for receipt of postals.</p>
<p>If either Howlett or Mav wins in Prosser, the right and left will retain their seats, with no change to the overall balance of power.</p>
<h2>In brief: UK local elections, Malaysian election, Australian vs US employment</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/05/05/uk-local-elections-deliver-flat-result/">The Poll Bludger</a> about the May 3 UK local government elections. According to the BBC’s projected national vote share, Labour and the Conservatives tied on 35% each. This was the first major UK electoral test since Labour surged back at the June 2017 general election to deny the Conservatives a Commons majority.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/conservatives-suffer-shock-loss-of-majority-at-uk-general-election-79109">Conservatives suffer shock loss of majority at UK general election</a>
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<p>In Wednesday’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_general_election,_2018">Malaysian election</a>, the party that had governed Malaysia since independence in 1957 was defeated. Former PM, and current opposition leader, Mahathir Mohamad, will become the new PM, the oldest head of government in the world at the age of 92. The opposition parties gained 54 seats from the government.</p>
<p>I have written about the <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/australia-vs-us-unemployment-rates-5-5-in-australia-3-9-in-the-us-but-australias-situation-is-better-than-the-us/">Australian and US employment figures</a> on my personal website. The current US unemployment rate is 3.9%, while Australia’s is 5.5%, but Australia’s participation rate is 2.7% higher than in the US. As a result, in my opinion, Australia’s employment situation is better than in the US.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96401/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Labor is likely to win all four of the upcoming byelections in seats it holds, Rebekha Sharkie faces a tougher fight in the South Australian seat of Mayo.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/962672018-05-09T09:38:29Z2018-05-09T09:38:29ZDual citizenship debacle claims five more MPs – and sounds a stern warning for future parliamentarians<p>In one fell swoop, the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2018/17.html">High Court’s judgment</a> about the eligibility of Katy Gallagher as a Senator disposed of five members of Parliament.</p>
<p>Not only was Gallagher disqualified, but the consequence was that Susan Lamb, Justine Keay, Josh Wilson and Rebekha Sharkie had no legal ground left to stand on. They had to resign, <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-mps-resign-as-citizenship-crisis-causes-more-havoc-96341">and they did</a>. </p>
<p>In each case, although they had initiated the procedure to renounce their foreign citizenship before the nomination date at the last election, that procedure had not been completed in the United Kingdom and they were still formally British citizens on nomination day. That was enough to see them disqualified.</p>
<h2>A change in the law or a clarification?</h2>
<p>The ALP had <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/shortens-citizenship-guarantee-wrecked/news-story/8a2d60091cf23317d05d1619c6b4b21c">previously boasted</a> of its rigorous vetting of its candidates, and expressed certainty they were all validly elected.</p>
<p>What went wrong? Has the High Court changed its interpretation of the Constitution or has it been consistent, as the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/high-court-rules-labor-s-katy-gallagher-ineligible-and-sets-up-four-likely-byelections-20180509-p4ze5f.html">Liberal Party claims</a>?</p>
<p>The answer is that the previous position, as set out by the High Court, was ambiguous and could legitimately have been interpreted in two different ways. What the High Court did was to clarify the law by removing the ambiguity. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-the-high-court-decision-on-katy-gallagher-is-about-and-why-it-matters-96214">Explainer: what the High Court decision on Katy Gallagher is about and why it matters</a>
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<p>When the issue was first dealt with in the 1992 case of <em><a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1992/60.html">Sykes v Cleary</a></em>, Chief Justice Mason and Justices Toohey and McHugh rejected a strict reading of section 44(i) of the Constitution on the ground that it would:</p>
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<p>result in the disqualification of Australian citizens on whom there was imposed involuntarily by operation of foreign law a continuing foreign nationality, notwithstanding that they had taken reasonable steps to renounce that foreign nationality.</p>
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<p>They considered that it would</p>
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<p>be wrong to interpret the constitutional provision in such a way as to disbar an Australian citizen who had taken all reasonable steps to divest himself or herself of any conflicting allegiance. </p>
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<p>Their Honours pointed out that even at federation, Australia was a nation of migrants, and that:</p>
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<p>it could scarcely have been intended to disqualify an Australian citizen for election to Parliament on account of his or her continuing to possess a foreign nationality, notwithstanding that he or she had taken reasonable steps to renounce that nationality.</p>
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<p>The ambiguity was whether the “reasonable steps test”: (a) only applies where the person would otherwise be disbarred from parliament because he or she was unable to renounce the foreign citizenship by any reasonable means; or (b) applies to all categories of dual citizenship, including those that can readily be renounced by following a reasonable procedure. This would mean that a candidate need only take all the reasonable steps within his or her power to renounce the foreign nationality prior to the nomination date, even if the formal renunciation did not happen until after that date.</p>
<p>Either view about what the court meant could have been fairly taken, but on balance most scholars favoured interpretation (b) because their Honours went on to apply the test of “reasonable steps” to two candidates who had dual citizenship with countries that permitted renunciation. </p>
<p>It was therefore unsurprising that the ALP, in its legal advice to candidates, took interpretation (b), with the consequence that some of its candidates undertook the renunciation process before the nomination date, but not sufficiently early for the renunciation to be completed prior to nomination.</p>
<p>While this approach was legitimate, it was not the most cautious one, as it involved a risk of invalidity if the High Court later decided that (a) was the correct approach.</p>
<p>Doubts arose about this interpretation when the High Court handed down its judgment last year in relation to Barnaby Joyce and the other “citizenship seven” in the <em><a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2017/45.html">Re Canavan</a></em> case.</p>
<p>There, when discussing the “reasonable steps test”, the High Court did so solely in the context of the “constitutional imperative” to avoid the “irremediable exclusion” of citizens from being capable of election to parliament.</p>
<p>This left lawyers wondering whether the reasonable steps test applied more broadly, and the court had simply not mentioned it in that context, or whether the Court was confining its application to circumstances where the foreign citizenship could not be renounced at all.</p>
<h2>What the High Court decided in the Katy Gallagher case</h2>
<p>We now have an answer – the court took interpretation (a) above. It held that the “reasonable steps test” only applies where it is impossible or not reasonably possible to renounce the foreign citizenship.</p>
<p>In such a case, the person must still take all reasonable steps within his or her power to renounce that citizenship (but not the “unreasonable” ones). Once this is done, the person can stand for Parliament even though the foreign citizenship continues. </p>
<p>But if the impediment is simply slow processing, or that renunciation is a matter of discretion, this is not enough to trigger the exception. The process of renunciation has to be completed in accordance with the law and procedures of the foreign country before the person nominates as a candidate in a Commonwealth election. </p>
<h2>Has this now resolved all the problems?</h2>
<p>We now have more certainty than we did a year ago. We know that a person can be disqualified for holding dual citizenship, even when it was inherited through parents and the person holding it did not know of its existence. Ignorance is no excuse. We also now know that a person has to complete the process of renunciation of that foreign citizenship before he or she nominates to stand for parliament, even if it takes a long time to complete it. </p>
<p>The only exemption will be if it is impossible to renounce the foreign citizenship or the steps for doing so are unreasonable, such as a requirement that would involve a risk to the person, such as residency in a dangerous country. </p>
<p>It is in this area that there may yet be litigation. Some countries make it very difficult to renounce foreign citizenship, and the court may have to decide in the future about the point at which that difficulty becomes unreasonable. So this may not necessarily be the last of these cases.</p>
<h2>What are the ramifications?</h2>
<p>In practice, it will mean that political parties need to complete their pre-selection processes well before an election to allow sufficient time for any renunciation. If there is a snap election, or where casual vacancies or byelections occur and a candidate is needed quickly, those with dual citizenship may have to be passed over if there is not enough time to renounce the foreign citizenship. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-voters-just-want-citizenship-crisis-fixed-but-it-isnt-that-easy-87201">Grattan on Friday: Voters just want citizenship crisis fixed – but it isn't that easy</a>
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<p>It is also likely that arrangements will be made with some countries, such as the United Kingdom, to fast-track processing of renunciation to deal with this problem.</p>
<p>But in other countries, this will not be feasible, so some potential candidates will have to renounce a long time in advance in order to be ready to nominate if the opportunity arises. The message to every aspiring politician is to check your family tree, identify any foreign citizenship you may have and renounce now.</p>
<h2>Can this be fixed?</h2>
<p>Realistically, the only way of removing this problem is by way of a constitutional amendment approved by a referendum. There have been many past proposals to repeal this disqualification, or to replace it with a requirement that all candidates be Australian citizens, or instead to give parliament the power to deal with the issue by legislation. </p>
<p>It would not be necessary to abandon the principle that members of parliament have sole allegiance to Australia. Instead, this could be achieved by legislation that puts control over renunciation of foreign citizenship into Australian hands.</p>
<p>The biggest problem with the current provision is that both the law as to who is a foreign citizen and the procedure to renounce it are outside Australian control.</p>
<p>Would such a referendum be successful? I have my doubts. It is likely to be perceived as something to help politicians, not the people.</p>
<p>But this High Court judgment will make it more difficult for people from some countries to become members of parliament, and that unfairness may provide a stronger argument to support a referendum to change the system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Twomey has received funding from the Australian Research Council and occasionally does consultancy work for governments and inter-governmental bodies.</span></em></p>Today’s High Court decision against Katy Gallagher has clarified how to interpret the constitution on this matter. But the problem of dual citizenship can only be properly fixed by a referendum.Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/621162016-07-11T02:18:13Z2016-07-11T02:18:13ZExplainer: who are the independents and minor parties in the lower house?<p>Five crossbench members of the House of Representatives will take their seats in the 45th parliament when it convenes in coming weeks.</p>
<p>Joining veteran Queensland politician Bob Katter are third-term independent member of parliament (MP) Andrew Wilkie, the Greens’ Adam Bandt, and the returning independent MP for Indi, Cathy McGowan. This seasoned group will be joined by a first-time MP for the Nick Xenophon Team, Rebekha Sharkie.</p>
<p>After a slim victory, how the Coalition works with the crossbench MPs will prove important to the success and stability of the Turnbull government.</p>
<h2>Bob Katter (Katter’s Australian Party) – member for Kennedy</h2>
<p>Katter has a long and colourful history in politics. A former National Party member for the state seat of Flinders, he served as a minister in Queensland’s Bjelke-Petersen government from 1983 to 1989. </p>
<p>Katter entered federal parliament in 1993 as a National Party MP. He resigned in 2001 to become an independent, citing an <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2001/s326098.htm">irreconcilable ideological difference</a> on the Coalition’s economic direction. </p>
<p>Now he is set to commence his 23rd year and ninth term in federal parliament as head of Katter’s Australian Party (KAP). He formed KAP in 2011 as a response to a weakness he saw among independent MPs: the inability to affect change for their constituencies. </p>
<p>Katter is known for his erratic and often eccentric style. He favours an interventionist and protectionist approach in support of agriculture and rural industry. He believes in statehood for Northern Queensland and is a fierce supporter of the union movement.</p>
<p>In lending his qualified support <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-bob-katter-sides-with-malcolm-turnbull-20160707-gq0n3z">to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull</a> should the Coalition require his vote, Katter indicated he would be mindful of issues such as support for live cattle exports and going ahead with the Hell’s Gate dam to help boost jobs in the state’s north.</p>
<p>A challenge for Katter in this new parliament may well be reconciling his support for greater protectionism and the union movement with the Liberal Party’s focused economic liberalism. </p>
<h2>Andrew Wilkie – member for Denison</h2>
<p>Wilkie has <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-wins-more-crossbench-support-as-governments-numbers-still-to-be-finalised-62225">given Malcolm Turnbull his assurance</a> that he will back the government on supply and confidence. But he <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election2016-independent-andrew-wilkie-rules-out-deals/7565626">wants to maintain his independence</a>) as a representative of his electorate.</p>
<p>Wilkie has won the former safe Labor seat of Denison in Tasmania with an increased margin at each election since 2010. </p>
<p>A former Army officer and manager with contractor Raytheon Australia, Wilkie joined the public service as a senior strategic analyst in the Office of National Assessments in 2001. </p>
<p>In 2003 he <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/s804540.htm">famously resigned</a> in opposition to the Howard government’s participation in the Iraq War. <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/05/30/1054177726543.html">He argued</a> the intelligence leading to Australia’s involvement was predicated on a lie. </p>
<p>Wilkie has been a member of the Liberals and Greens, running for the latter in 2004 and 2007. Neither was a good fit. </p>
<p>Running as an independent in 2010, he stood on an anti-gambling platform and railed against the parlous state of mental health services – issues he still champions. He also threw his support behind Labor to help secure Julia Gillard minority government.</p>
<p>In recent years, Wilkie has been highly critical of the live export trade, Australia’s failure to legalise same-sex marriage, and the treatment of asylum seekers. </p>
<p>The challenge for the government will be working with Wilkie on a case-by-case basis, particularly on these issues and others concerning his electorate.</p>
<h2>Adam Bandt (Greens) – member for Melbourne</h2>
<p>Bandt was first elected to parliament in 2010, winning the previously safe Labor seat of Melbourne. </p>
<p>A lawyer by profession, Bandt has had a strong interest in human rights and social justice issues in both his legal and political careers. His PhD examined governments’ suspension of human rights.</p>
<p>In the 45th parliament, the Greens indicated they would focus on Medicare, subsidised dental care, the formation of a national body to protect the environment, and the end of offshore detention of asylum seekers.</p>
<p>It is also likely that Bandt will revisit issues he raised in the past for which he might find crossbench support. These include reforming politicians’ entitlements and political donations, and the need for a national anti-corruption body.</p>
<p>A Coalition government will continue to find working with Bandt and the Greens a challenge. Ideologically they are poles apart on issues from school funding and the environment to unions.</p>
<p>Bandt has stated that while the Greens <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/adam-bandt-says-greens-would-be-open-to-laborgreens-coalition-ahead-of-election-20160509-goq96g.html">would not be averse</a> to entering a coalition arrangement with Labor, they would <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-2016:-adam-bandt/7575916">not support a Liberal-National Coalition</a> government. </p>
<p>In the House of Representatives, Bandt could add weight to the sizeable Labor opposition.</p>
<h2>Cathy McGowan – member for Indi</h2>
<p>McGowan was re-elected for a second term in 2016. She <a href="http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-218.htm">increased her margin</a> in the former long-term Liberal-held safe seat against Sophie Mirabella. </p>
<p>McGowan is a former Liberal Party member and electorate staff member for Ewen Cameron, a previous Indi MP. She has worked as a teacher in rural Victoria, a public servant, a consultant on issues affecting rural communities, an academic, researcher and company director. </p>
<p>McGowan’s strong local presence and deep understanding of local issues have seen her speak out on economic disadvantage, rural employment, improving infrastructure, telecommunications, renewable energy and transport. </p>
<p>While her <a href="http://www.cathymcgowan.com.au/parliament">voting record indicates</a> she has strongly supported the Coalition government’s policy agenda, her focus has been very much on the needs of Indi.</p>
<p>Since the election, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-2016-independent-mcgowan-rejects-speaker-talk/7565478">McGowan has said</a> she would work productively with the Coalition and would <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-wins-more-crossbench-support-as-governments-numbers-still-to-be-finalised-62225">back the government on supply an confidence</a>. She has also highlighted her positive working relationship with Turnbull. </p>
<p>The government will face fewer challenges working with McGowan than some of the other independents and minors, but she will clearly put her electorate’s needs first, and is likely to favour the National Party’s regional agenda.</p>
<h2>Rebekha Sharkie (Nick Xenophon Team) – member for Mayo</h2>
<p>Sharkie is the political novice on the crossbench. The newly elected member for the South Australian seat of Mayo is also the first House of Representatives member of the newly formed Nick Xenophon Team (NXT). She is not, however, completely new to politics. </p>
<p>While coming from an administrative, conveyancing and small-business background, Sharkie has tertiary qualifications in politics and experience working for MPs. She worked with state Liberal MP and party leader Isobel Redmond and, for a brief time before resigning, with the man she unseated, Jamie Briggs. </p>
<p>During the election campaign, Sharkie drew attention to issues in her electorate, including youth employment, transport and access to medical services. She wants to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/30/there-is-a-bitter-battle-in-mayo-that-is-much-bigger-than-jamie/">focus on a range of issues</a>.</p>
<p>Her party leader Nick Xenophon has had discussions with Turnbull about issues of concern to NXT in the forthcoming parliament, including free-trade agreements (FTAs) and the future of the Arrium steelworks. The party believes FTAs are not in Australia’s national interest and wants to see them reviewed at the very least. </p>
<p>Sharkie tripped up on the issue of FTAs on the campaign trail and it’s unclear whether her inexperience and potentially loose party discipline will see NXT fracture like the Palmer United Party. Xenophon is, however, a more experienced leader and is more likely to hold the team together</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a slim victory, how the Coalition works with the crossbench MPs will prove important to the success and stability of the Turnbull government.Tracee McPate, Manager, Strategic Programs and Outreach, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith UniversityRobyn Hollander, Associate Professor School of Government and International Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/607982016-06-09T11:34:37Z2016-06-09T11:34:37ZGrattan on Friday: In Conversation with Nick Xenophon<p>The Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) is to this election what the Palmer United Party (PUP) was to the 2013 one. It is potentially the next big new thing in the Senate.</p>
<p>PUP in 2013 won three Senate seats – in Queensland, Tasmania and Western Australia – and one in the House of Representatives. NXT, on current polling, is set for at least three South Australian senators, including Xenophon himself, who has been in federal parliament since 2008.</p>
<p>Xenophon says NXT has a “fighting chance” of Senate wins elsewhere “given some national polls showing support between 3-5%”, although ABC election analyst Antony Green doubts this. But Green gives it “a good chance” in the SA House of Representatives Liberal seat of Mayo.</p>
<p>On the basis of its likely SA Senate numbers alone, NXT – like PUP before it – would have a significant slice of the balance of power in the upper house.</p>
<p>PUP’s seats were gained thanks in very large part to Clive Palmer’s money, which financed a massive advertising blitz. PUP surfed on the disillusionment of many voters with the major parties.</p>
<p>NXT is a product of the extraordinary personal popularity of Xenophon, who in the 2013 election – a normal half-Senate poll – won nearly two Senate quotas.</p>
<p>NXT is also tapping into the discontent in the electorate, which is at a high point. This week’s Newspoll showed 15% support for “others” – the category covering parties other than the Coalition, Labor and the Greens, as well as independents.</p>
<p>In SA, hit hard by the decline of manufacturing, Xenophon’s protectionist and populist platform resonates strongly. He is pitching as a man of the centre who could negotiate with a Coalition or Labor government. He describes his platform as “not ideological” – rather, it is “about solving problems”.</p>
<p>He will not say which side NXT would opt for if it were a player in a hung parliament – which could only happen if it had representation in the lower house.</p>
<p>In an interview with The Conversation, Xenophon rejects the proposition this refusal is a cop out, with several defences. “We haven’t seen all the policies of the major parties,” he says, and “[you’d] need to take into account who the other crossbench members of the lower house would be”. He argues it would be necessary to talk with the major parties to determine their attitude on key issues. </p>
<p>Finally, he insists there’s only a 0.0001% chance of a hung parliament. Xenophon expects a Coalition win even if Bill Shorten received a majority of the popular vote.</p>
<p>The Liberals hope a re-elected Turnbull government would find NXT reasonable to deal with in the Senate. Xenophon says: “I want to be pragmatic and constructive with whomever forms government.” But he indicates he’d extract his pound of flesh. He’d use his clout to stand up for manufacturing, such as fighting for the embattled Arrium steelworks in Whyalla.</p>
<p>He has given support to the Coalition’s proposed company tax cut only up to a A$10 million turnover threshold. He’d seek to block legislation to implement the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. John Howard this week drew a parallel between Xenophon and Pauline Hanson on trade, which Xenophon rejected as mudslinging.</p>
<p>When the question of a government having a mandate for its program is put to him, Xenophon counters by pointing to the Senate’s mandate. He says the upper house is there for the states and as “a bulwark against excesses of executive power”.</p>
<p>He notes a key difference with the United States where “they, it seems, have this incessant deadlock”. In Australia, “if worst comes to worst, and I’m hoping it won’t be the case, there is a deadlock provision that can be dealt with in terms of a double dissolution”. </p>
<p>He immediately realises the political danger in that comment – the voters wouldn’t want another double-dissolution election – and stresses the rarity of double dissolutions. Even so, his answer continues to nag at him after the interview.</p>
<p>PUP fell apart very quickly because Palmer was an impossible leader and his senators a disparate set of individuals with little in common. Xenophon is confident the same wouldn’t happen to NXT – although when he was in the SA parliament and a running mate was elected late in the piece, the relationship didn’t end well. He points out he’s long known and worked with the two SA candidates expected to be elected to the Senate – one just missed out getting in last time.</p>
<p>In Mayo, located in the picturesque Adelaide Hills, the luck has fallen NXT’s way. Incumbent MP Jamie Briggs had to resign from the ministry late last year over an incident in a Hong Kong bar involving a female public servant. NXT candidate Rebekha Sharkie is a former staffer of Briggs. When the Hong Kong matter came out she recalled from her time in his office that “there were things said that were misogynist in nature”.</p>
<p>Mayo has gone down to the line before, when in 1998 it nearly fell to Democrat candidate, singer John Schumann. A ReachTEL poll done in mid-May had the Liberals on 39.6%, NXT at 23.5%, Labor 18.3% and Greens 10.7%. Whatever happens in the end NXT has Liberals nervous about the seat. The Xenophon forces have even put Industry Minister Christopher Pyne under pressure in Sturt, though he is expected to be safe.</p>
<p>Xenophon spent two days in Mayo this week. On Wednesday, as he set out for the second day, he looked tired and stressed. He’s normally fairly harried but the strain of carrying a party on his shoulders is obvious.</p>
<p>At a meeting of about 40 in Lobethal, one of the many German-settled towns in SA, his reservations about the TPP went down well with his audience. He told a questioner who asked about preferences that NXT would run an open ticket in Mayo. His well-used joke that when NXT was renamed sometime in the future he’d really like to call it the “at least we’re not as bad as the others party” prompted the laugh it was inviting.</p>
<p>Xenophon is anxious to claim that NXT is not all about him. He says adopting a new, less personal name before the election would have been all too hard in terms of recognition, and expensive. But of course the party IS all about him. If he did not enjoy such personal popularity it would not exist, let alone be emerging as a likely significant player in the new Senate.</p>
<p>It is one of those parties almost certain to be a relatively short-term phenomenon in the Australian political firmament. On the balance of probabilities even if all goes well, it would be unlikely to survive much beyond the political career of its founder. The question is what it will do and can achieve while it lasts.</p>
<p><em>Below is an edited transcript of The Conversation’s interview with Nick Xenophon recorded in his Adelaide office on Wednesday, June 8.</em></p>
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<p><strong>Michelle Grattan</strong>: Nick Xenophon, how many seats do you think you can win in the Senate? And do you think you’ve got a chance of a house seat?</p>
<p><strong>Nick Xenophon</strong>: I can only tell you what the polls are saying, and the polls are saying voter support’s at around 20% in South Australia. Let’s see what happens between now and election day because I expect there will be a massive onslaught by the major parties. </p>
<p>When the major parties are talking about preferencing each other ahead of my team, which is a party firmly in the political centre, that would obviously affect our chances. But, at this stage, if you believe the polls, three Senate seats in South Australia and a fighting chance in the other states, given some national polls which show support between 3% and 5%.</p>
<p>And in the lower house, again, I know of one poll in Mayo, another in Sturt, which shows us coming second to the Coalition’s sitting members. So, you’d have to think that there would be a chance there, particularly in Mayo, where there does seem to be quite a strong level of support for Rebekha Sharkie.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Newspoll is showing a very high level of voter support for so-called “others” – that is, those other than the Coalition, Labor, and the Greens. Why do you think this is so?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Because I think people are fed up with the cosy Coles-Woolies duopoly of the major parties; that they feel it is a case of Tweedledum and Tweedledee; that after seeing the so-called leaders’ debate a couple of Sundays ago, it almost felt like the Seinfeld election – an election about not much at all. </p>
<p>And, I think that there is a real hunger to fill that vacuum, where it seems politicians have learnt their lines by rote in terms of the major parties, and there just doesn’t seem to be that connectiveness to the concerns of Australians – particularly on issues such as gambling, on jobs, on free-trade agreements and on issues of government accountability.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Just absolutely in a nutshell, how would you summarise your platform?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> A platform from the political centre that is not ideological, that is about solving problems; where the three core principles, I think, are also a litmus test about good government in this country: in terms of predatory gambling, whether it’s pokies or online, about Australian-made and Australian jobs, which brings in the role that successive Australian government have played in not negotiating free-trade agreements well, and about government transparency and accountability. </p>
<p>The fact that senator Conroy’s office was raided two-and-a-half/three weeks ago indicates that neither parties are willing to take on those official secrets provisions in the Crimes Act that really stymie material that’s in the public interest reaching the public without fear of people going to jail.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Do you think that the last Senate was dysfunctional?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> No, the last Senate was a Senate that had to be considered also in the context of the Abbott government’s policies. The 2014 budget was a shocker. It was full of broken promises. It wasn’t a budget that was so much about a mandate, it was about a reverse mandate. There was never a mandate to do what they wanted to do to Medicare, to young job-seekers, to universities. </p>
<p>But, people forget that the crossbench did support the government in terms of policies in respect of abolishing the carbon tax, abolishing the mining tax, dealing with border protection issues in a way that would make sure that the people-smuggling trade wouldn’t start up again. And also Direct Action as an alternative mechanism to deal with carbon pollution. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> You look like you’ll have a fair share of the balance of power in a new Senate. How aggressively are you willing to use that share of the balance of power? And do you accept that a government does have a mandate for its main programs?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Well I’m not an aggressive person, but I will be forthright and I’ve been upfront in terms of my priorities. I do not want Australian manufacturing to wither and die – which is really one of the issues that this election needs to be about. </p>
<p>I want to do everything I can to make sure that the Arrium Steelworks in Whyalla, the last remaining major manufacturer of structural steel in this country, thrives and prospers – that it gets out of administration and becomes a strongly viable facility. Without structural steel in this country, you actually lose all the steel-fabrication businesses. In terms of the second part of your question …</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> On mandates …</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> On mandates. Well, governments have a mandate to introduce legislation. The Senate has a mandate to scrutinise that legislation and I don’t say that flippantly. I say that in the context that there are many hundreds of thousands of Australians that vote differently between the lower house and the upper house because under our Constitution, under our system of government, the Senate is there to represent the states. It’s also there under its proportional representation system to be a bulwark against excesses of executive power.</p>
<p><strong>MG</strong> But, nevertheless, the overwhelming number of voters are voting for the government compared to voting for the crossbenchers. So shouldn’t the government’s mandate override the Senate’s mandate?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Well, not if you’re campaigning on something completely contrary. </p>
<p>I mean, if South Australians are voting for me, and other Australians are voting for the [Nick Xenophon] Team to do something about predatory gambling, about Australian-made and Australians jobs, about government accountability and transparency, we’ve got an obligation to our supporters. </p>
<p>So, the great thing about the Australian political system compared to the US – where they seem to have this incessant deadlock because their system of government is quite different, even though our Senate has been modelled, to a large extent, on the US Senate – is that, if worst comes to worst, and I’m hoping it won’t be the case, there is a deadlock provision that can be dealt with in terms of a double dissolution. </p>
<p>Now, I don’t expect that that will happen again. I think that double dissolutions need to be something that happen very, very rarely in our system and this is our first double dissolution for over a generation. So I think I would not be doing my job for the people that support me and my team unless we stood up for what we believe in and have campaigned on.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> I don’t think people voting for you would want you to bring on another double dissolution.</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Absolutely not, absolutely not, and I’m just making that clear. But I’m saying that I think the government … we have that check and balance in the system. </p>
<p>I supported the ABCC [Australian Building and Construction Commission] legislation going through to a second reading vote – unlike most of my crossbench colleagues, and unlike the majority of the Senate. I want to be pragmatic and constructive with whomever forms government.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, you’ve criticised aspects of free-trade agreements. Would you try to alter or stop legislation for the TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership] when it comes up?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Look, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is something that neither the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, nor the presumptive Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, want. </p>
<p>When both major parties in the US say they will not support the TPP, then why are we going down this path? I am not against free-trade agreements, but I am against trade agreements that are negotiated badly that are not in the national interest.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So you would try – just assuming that that legislation did come up; that it somehow did get through in America – you would try to stop it here?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Well, I couldn’t support it based on its current provisions. I think they have been negotiated badly. They’ve been negotiated in secrecy. </p>
<p>We need to look at the American system where the Congress, where the Senate has a role, before these agreements are finalised. These agreements are presented to the Parliament of Australia, to be effectively rubber-stamped. That’s not a good system.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Just to be absolutely clear – if you are able to, you would stop it?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Yes.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now, John Howard this week suggested there were some parallels between you and Pauline Hanson. Now I know you pushed this off and you said: “thanks John, for the publicity”. But what is your substantive answer to that allegation?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Well, Michelle, my difficulty is that I don’t want to give Pauline Hanson any oxygen and I’ll try to keep my answer short. I reject her attitudes on migration, on race, on religion. I think that they are incredibly destructive. </p>
<p>I support well-negotiated free-trade agreements that are in our national interests. I believe that what Ms Hanson is proposing is not a solution to our nation’s problems and that her views on migration, on race, on religion, and particularly on Islam, are quite repugnant. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Everyone agrees that you’ll get two more senators in from South Australia, as well as yourself. So can you just tell us briefly who are these people who will be coming in?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Stirling Griff is someone that I’ve known for the best part of 20 years, when he was head of the Retail Association of South Australia. He was in fact the only business leader that came out and supported me opposing privatisation of electricity assets because it wasn’t well-thought-out. It was in direct breach of a government promise by the then-Olsen Liberal government. </p>
<p>We’ve got to know each other very well over the years. He has my full trust and support. He is a terrific bloke to work with. He’s bunkered down as the campaign director doing the same sort of ridiculous hours that I’m doing at the moment. And I really want him to get elected because he just missed out last time because of preference deals that the major parties and minor parties cobbled together, which saw Family First elected on Labor Party preferences. </p>
<p>So, a party to the right of the Liberal Party was elected on Labor Party preferences, which I thought was a spiteful decision made by the Labor Party to reduce the influence of what I stand for. </p>
<p>Skye Kakoschke-Moore, she’s number three on the ticket. She has worked as my senior advisor for a number of years. She actually put her hand up without me knowing. She went through a process to apply, to be a candidate, as did many other people around the country and in the state. And she went through it with flying colours. </p>
<p>I worked with Skye closely for the best part or over five years. She is well-respected by both sides of politics that have worked with her. She has a great grasp of policy detail and she will be a terrific addition to the Senate as well.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Even though you know these people well, do you think that there’s any danger that the team could, over the longer term, fragment in the way we saw the Palmer United team fragment?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> No, for a whole range of reasons. </p>
<p>First, the structure of the party is different. I believe the way it has been operated has been very consultative. It is a very cohesive structure. </p>
<p>The other thing is that there’s this attack on me that it is personality-based politics. Well, I said on the first day when the team was launched [that] it was called the Nick Xenophon Team, because to call it something else would have cost a fortune to re-badge the group – a fortune that we don’t have. </p>
<p>And, after this election, assuming there are others that join me in the federal parliament, I want to change the name to something else.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> To what?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Well, Michelle, I’ve speculated publicly that I like the name “at least we’re not as bad as the others’ party”, but I don’t know if I’ll get the numbers on that. I think we will change it to something else. The Michelle Grattan Movement appeals to me but I don’t think we’ll get that through either. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But, look, it is a personality-based party. How can you possibly claim anything else?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> No, it’s because people know me, and there are people that are running that …</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> And you are a very good vote-winner.</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> You call me a vote-magnet. I’ve never heard that before, so I think I should be flattered, but …</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But you can’t deny that this party is around personality and if you quit politics in two years, five years – there wouldn’t be a party.</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> You know the great consumer advocated Ralph Nader once said the function of genuine leadership is to create more leaders, not more followers. And what I’m trying to do is to have like-minded people, people from the political centre, that actually are passionate about Australia’s future, that want to find non-ideological solutions to the nation’s problems, to step up and come forward, as they have, to get elected to the parliament, which I hope will happen after the next election, and to make an ongoing contribution.</p>
<p>This is much bigger than just me. And that’s why you’ll see the group – the party – morphing into something else after this election – and that’s a good thing. So, that seems to debunk this personality-cult politics, which is both bemusing and disappointing. </p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> If you got a lower house seat and if there were a hung parliament, you’ve said you’d negotiate with both sides. You won’t say which side that you would favour supporting to be in government. Isn’t that a bit of a cop-out though? Aren’t you just trying to avoid saying to voters, “well I would go with the Libs or I would go with Labor”?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> It’s not a cop-out at all. How can it be a cop-out if we haven’t seen all the policies of the major parties, if it is a hypothetical …</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But we have seen the policies, we will have seen the policies …</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Well, they’re still rolling them out. And in the highly unlikely event of a hung parliament, you need to take into account who the other crossbench members of the lower house would be. </p>
<p>It would be necessary to sit down and talk to the major parties to see what their attitudes would be on a number of key issues, and for me to indicate which side I favour – and I genuinely don’t favour either – would be a very silly thing to do in terms of a negotiating position. </p>
<p>I would almost be like some of the trade negotiators for some of our free-trade deals which I don’t think were negotiated very well.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> At a personal level, what sort of relationship do you have with Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Well, I’ve known Malcolm Turnbull longer than I’ve known Bill Shorten. I had a fair bit to do with Malcolm Turnbull as opposition leader when we worked on an alternative emissions trading scheme through Frontier Economics, which I thought was a very good exercise – [it] got done quite well. [I] respect Malcolm. He’s very charming and affable. </p>
<p>Bill Shorten – I’ve had a bit to do with, when he as a minister in the Gillard government. And we get on fine. It’s a case of not being able to spend much time with either leader because we’re all busy. </p>
<p>But the relationship with both men is, I think, very constructive and cordial. I like both of them at a personal level. I’m willing to work with either of them, but I still think that it is a 0.0001% chance that there will be a hung parliament.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Are you saying that partly because you know that people would be a bit more wary of voting for your party if they thought that that was making it more likely that there will be a hung parliament?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> No, I’m saying it because I cannot see how the Coalition with 90 seats out of 150 in the lower house, in the House of Representatives, is going to lose anything more than seven to 10 seats.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> So, you think they’ll win?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Yes, I do. I think Bill Shorten will make some inroads. I think he’s been campaigning quite well – but as is Malcolm Turnbull.</p>
<p>And I think we may have a 1998 situation where the Coalition loses some skin and loses a number of seats and that the ALP might even win the popular vote. They might get 51% of the popular vote but still fall a fair degree short of the number of seats they need.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Now finally, you came in on a platform of fighting gambling. And now you stand on the brink of having a great deal of power in the Senate. And yet, you haven’t been able to deliver on that fundamental original platform. Why is that? And do you think you could deliver in the next term?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Well, it’ll be on my tombstone: “here rests the no-pokies guy”. It’ll always be at the core of what I do because gambling policy is a litmus test of good government. The fact that governments, particularly state governments, are willing to sacrifice their citizens for gambling taxes when we’ve got the highest level of gambling losses per capita in the world is very telling.</p>
<p>And the pernicious influence of the gambling lobby, which I understand is now making big donations to the major parties that attempt to thwart me and the Greens, is interesting. </p>
<p>So, the simple answer is that I’ve continued to be an advocate for those who have gambling problems. That’s behind-the-scenes work that people don’t see. I’ll continue to agitate for this. But I believe that with other like-minded people joining me, we will be able to achieve so much. At the moment, I’m one voice out of 226 …</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Well, you did have Andrew Wilkie …</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> And I want to make that clear. Andrew Wilkie, the Greens, other crossbenchers have been absolutely terrific on this issue, but if there’s more …</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> But nothing much has been achieved?</p>
<p><strong>NX:</strong> Well, in a democracy, you never give up to change bad legislation, to bring about legislative reforms that will be in the public interest. So, I’m not giving up. Much to the chagrin of those in the gambling lobby, I’ll continue at this even if I wasn’t in the parliament. I’ll continue to be an agitator on this issue.</p>
<p><strong>MG:</strong> Nick Xenophon, thanks very much for talking with The Conversation today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60798/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Nick Xenophon Team is to this election what the Palmer United Party was to the 2013 one. It is potentially the ‘next big new thing’ in the Senate.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.