tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/unfccc-4221/articlesUNFCCC – The Conversation2023-12-15T15:03:05Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199402023-12-15T15:03:05Z2023-12-15T15:03:05ZClimate summits are too big and key voices are being crowded out – here’s a better solution<p>Every year, the official UN climate summits are getting bigger. In 2021 at COP26 in Glasgow there were around <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-have-sent-the-most-delegates-to-cop26/">40,000</a> participants, COP27 in 2022 in Sharm el-Sheikh had <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-have-sent-the-most-delegates-to-cop27/">50,000</a>.</p>
<p>But this year blew all previous records out of the water. More than <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-have-sent-the-most-delegates-to-cop28/">97,000</a> participants had badges to attend COP28 in Dubai in person. This raises questions about who is attending COPs and what they are doing there, who gets their voices heard and, on a more practical note, how this affects the negotiations.</p>
<p>For those not familiar with the COP setup, there are two “worlds” that exist side by side. One is the negotiations, which are run under the UN’s climate change body the UNFCCC, and the other is a very long list of talks and social events. These take place in pavilion exhibition spaces and are open to anyone attending, in contrast to the negotiations which are often closed to the media and sometimes closed to observers.</p>
<p>There is a stark difference between these worlds, with pavilion spaces featuring elaborate and inviting settings, particularly if they are well funded, while negotiations often happen in windowless rooms.</p>
<p>A growing sense exists among those invested in the “traditional” side of the COPs that many delegates have no intention of observing the climate talks themselves, and instead spend their time networking in the pavilions.</p>
<p>In terms of who attends, <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/634488">at COP28</a> there were around 25,000 “party” (country) delegates, 27,000 “party overflow” delegates (usually guests, sponsors, or advisors), 900 UNFCCC secretariat members (who run the COPs), 600 “UN overflow”, and 1,350 from “specialised agencies” such as the World Health Organization or World Bank and their overflows. That makes up just under 55,000 or half of the attendees. </p>
<p>The rest are intergovernmental organisations (2,000), UN Global Climate Action award winners (600), host country guests (5,000), temporary passes (500 – many issued to big private companies), NGOs (14,000 – including one of us, as part of a university delegation), and media (4,000). This is according to the <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/634488">UNFCCC</a>, which places the number of attendees closer to 80,000.</p>
<p>The “party overflow” badges are particularly concerning. The number of delegates connected to the oil and gas industries has <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67607289">quadrupled</a> from last year to around 2,400, many of whom were invited as part of country delegations. As another example, meat industry representatives became part of Brazil’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/plans-to-present-meat-as-sustainable-nutrition-at-cop28-revealed">delegation</a>, while dairy associations organised official COP side <a href="https://seors.unfccc.int/applications/seors/reports/events_list.html?session_id=COP%2028">events</a>. In the official programme, the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/energy-and-industry-just-transition-indigenous-peoples">Energy and Industry, Just Transition, and Indigenous Peoples Day</a> featured more events by industrial giant Siemens than by indigenous people.</p>
<p>Practically speaking, huge numbers cause problems – this year for example there were <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/united-arab-emirates-climate-change-conference-cop28-daily-report-2dec2023">delayed meetings</a>, long queues, and several negotiation rooms were <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/united-arab-emirates-climate-change-conference-cop28-daily-report-2dec2023">beyond capacity</a> with observers and even party delegates asked to limit their numbers and leave.</p>
<p>Even with access to an observer badge, there is little one can contribute to negotiations. The negotiating positions are decided long before the COPs begin, and observers are rarely permitted to speak in negotiations. In addition, a lot of the negotiations are either conducted behind closed doors (called “informal-informals” with no access for the UN or observers) or even in the corridors, where negotiators meet informally to cement positions. The negotiations you can (silently) observe are usually a series of prepared statements, rather than a discussion.</p>
<p>So if COPs are too big and bloated, what is the alternative?</p>
<h2>Smaller and more online</h2>
<p>One alternative is being a virtual delegate, which one of us tried. This year’s COP trialled live streams and recordings of some of the negotiations, side events and press conferences on an official UNFCCC virtual platform for the first time. The option is a long overdue, but welcome addition. It reduces travel emissions and makes it more accessible, for instance for people with caring responsibilities and others who are unable to travel (or perhaps who <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/scientist-fired-refuse-fly-gianluca-grimalda-b2428809.html">refuse to fly</a>). </p>
<p>Some technical teething problems are to be expected. Yet when we queried why the virtual platform didn’t livestream many of the sessions, the COP28 support team pointed us to the official COP28 app. Our employer, the University of Bristol, had advised us not to download the app because of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/11/uae-concerns-around-authorities-use-of-digital-surveillance-during-cop28/">security concerns</a>, which again raises serious issues around transparency and accountability in UNFCCC spaces, as well as freedom of speech and assembly in COP host countries.</p>
<p>Not being there in person also has downsides. As a virtual observer, it’s harder to judge the atmosphere in a negotiation room, to stumble upon and observe spontaneous negotiations happening in corridors, or participate in or observe protests. While indigenous voices were rarely heard in the livestreamed negotiations and events, the Indigenous People’s Pavilion offered a chance to hear them – but only if you were in Dubai. The virtual alternative is a good option to observe negotiations, but it means missing out on some of the civil society lifeblood of COP.</p>
<p>Another option is to limit access to COPs – for example, limiting the in-person negotiations only to the most vital participants. Party tickets could be limited, with lobbyists from fossil fuel industries tightly controlled and priority given to climate victims, indigenous communities and underrepresented countries. Side events and pavilions could take place a few months before the COPs, increasing the chances of influencing negotiations, since positions are cemented early. There is no reason these only need to happen in one place once a year, there could be regional meetups in between, allowing for formal contact more often.</p>
<p>These issues of access, transparency and influence have serious implications on negotiation outcomes and climate action. After undergoing various draft iterations that offered options ranging from “no text” to “phasing out” or “down” fossil fuels, this year’s final agreement <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-major-outcomes-from-the-latest-un-climate-summit-219655">does not include</a> a commitment to phasing out. This watered-down agreement reflects the inability of indigenous peoples and the most climate vulnerable countries to meaningfully participate in the negotiations – future COPs must trim down to make their voices heard.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>COP28 had almost 100,000 delegates, most of whom weren’t involved in the negotiations.Alix Dietzel, Senior Lecturer in Climate Justice, University of BristolKatharina Richter, Lecturer in Climate Change, Politics and Society, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184442023-11-29T16:28:12Z2023-11-29T16:28:12ZChina is already paying substantial climate finance, while US is global laggard – new analysis<p>Finance is poisoning international cooperation on the climate crisis. </p>
<p>There is no longer any credible debate about the need to act on climate change, but tensions are flaring around the question of who should make the immense investments necessary to phase out fossil fuels and adapt to a more hostile climate.</p>
<p>The rift between richer and poorer countries has consequently revived and the negotiations have once more descended into acrimony. How can the finance fight be resolved?</p>
<p>Back in 2009, developed countries at the Copenhagen summit committed to provide developing countries with US$100 billion (£78.9 billion) of climate finance a year from 2020.</p>
<p>US$100 billion a year is just a fraction of the <a href="https://www.g20.org/content/dam/gtwenty/gtwenty_new/document/Strengthening-MDBs-The-Triple-Agenda_G20-IEG-Report-Volume.pdf">US$1.8 trillion</a> that low- and middle-income countries need each year to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>But it is symbolic: it represents redress for the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/09/settling-the-climate-debt-clements-gupta-liu">outsized share of the global carbon budget</a> that developed countries have gobbled up, leaving the rest of the world both battered by climate disasters and constrained in terms of the carbon that they can emit as they pursue a better quality of life.</p>
<p>Despite the political importance of the US$100 billion pledge, developed countries did not deliver it in 2020 or 2021. They may <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/growth-accelerated-in-the-climate-finance-provided-and-mobilised-in-2021-but-developed-countries-remain-short.htm">meet the goal in 2022</a>, but the self-reported data has not yet been verified.</p>
<p>The broken promise of climate finance has stoked <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/africa/roots-global-souths-new-resentment">resentment in developing countries</a>, compounded by vaccine hoarding and debt hangovers.</p>
<p>Many of these countries insist that the US$100 billion a year must be met before other aspects of the climate negotiations can continue in good faith.</p>
<p>Yet many developed countries look askance at these demands from some of the increasingly wealthy and polluting economies – like <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2023/05/23/dr-sultan-al-jaber-calls-for-boost-to-public-and-private-climate-finance-for-africa/">the Gulf states</a> or <a href="https://english.news.cn/20221109/730597e4642b46648d7a93fa6a4d6b62/c.html">China</a> – that sit within the developing country bloc. This bloc has no obligation to provide climate finance under the international regime.</p>
<p>Posturing by both sides overlooks the huge amount of climate finance that many developing countries already contribute.</p>
<h2>Unsung heroes?</h2>
<p>Most countries pay into multilateral development banks, which are set up by governments to help poorer countries access cheaper finance and advisory services.</p>
<p>While fighting climate change is rarely a country’s primary motivation for investing in these banks, their contributions nonetheless help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. For example, the banks might provide a low-cost loan to countries looking to enhance their wastewater systems to cope with more rainfall, or to build a public transport network that avoids emissions from private cars. </p>
<p>Developing countries do not seek or receive credit for this climate finance, as they are not obliged to report their contributions to the UN climate convention. In a first of its kind <a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/the-new-collective-quantified-goal-and-its-sources-of-funding-operationalising-a-collective-effort/">analysis</a>, the global affairs thinktank ODI has revealed that developing countries already provide large amounts of climate finance through these banks. </p>
<p>China is the 11th largest provider of all countries, contributing US$1.2 billion a year. India (17th), Brazil (19th) and Russia (20th) are also notable donors.</p>
<p>Even these figures understate developing country contributions, as they do not include climate finance channelled bilaterally between countries, rather than through multilateral development banks or UN agencies, and are only available for a handful of developing countries, including China.</p>
<p>Drawing on these databases, we calculated that China provides an estimated US$1.4 billion of public finance bilaterally. If we combine this figure with the US$1.2 billion of climate finance that it channels through multilateral development banks, China is the seventh largest provider of climate finance between Italy (sixth) and Canada (eigth).</p>
<p>These figures make a mockery of <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1595">US</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/26/eu-climate-chief-china-fund-rescue-poorer-nations-cop28">EU</a> demands that China begin contributing climate finance – particularly given the track record of the US to date.</p>
<h2>Unfair share</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/a-fair-share-of-climate-finance-the-adaptation-edition/">annual “fair share” report</a> attributes responsibility for the US$100 billion target among developed countries based on their historical emissions (which continue to fuel global warming), income and population size.</p>
<p>Based on these metrics, we found that the US is overwhelmingly responsible for the climate finance shortfall. The world’s largest economy should be providing US$43.5 billion of climate finance a year. In 2021, it gave just US$9.3 billion – a meagre 21% of its fair share.</p>
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<p>For context, the US accounts for around <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change/">a fifth of historical emissions</a> but just 4% of the global population. Its economy is four times larger than Japan’s, five times larger than Germany’s and eight times larger than that of France, yet it provides less climate finance than any of them.</p>
<p>Although China has 17% of the global population, it is responsible for <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change/">just 11% of cumulative emissions</a>. China is also much poorer per person than the US – or indeed, any of the developed countries expected to provide climate finance. Nonetheless, China gives US$2.6 billion of climate finance a year.</p>
<h2>If not China, who?</h2>
<p>Countries are assembling in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for the next round of climate negotiations. The new climate finance goal, which will replace the current target of US$100 billion a year, and the new loss and damage fund, will both be under the spotlight.</p>
<p><a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/the-new-collective-quantified-goal-and-its-sources-of-funding-operationalising-a-collective-effort/">We propose two criteria</a> to determine when countries should be obliged to provide climate finance: that they are at least as rich per person as the average developed country at the start of the 1990s, when international climate negotiations began, and that they have produced as many historical emissions per person.</p>
<p>Six countries meet our criteria: Brunei Darussalam, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. The Czech Republic, Estonia and Qatar already voluntarily provide additional climate finance on top of their contributions to multilateral development banks. Brunei Darussalam, Kuwait and the UAE – which is presiding over this round of climate negotiations – do not.</p>
<h2>Closing the climate finance gap</h2>
<p>So, how can the deadlock be broken?</p>
<p>The fastest way to restore trust in the international climate regime would be for the US to step up with its fair share of climate finance. Without it, the Europeans are on track to <a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/a-fair-share-of-climate-finance-the-adaptation-edition/">close the gap</a> by meeting and exceeding their fair share of the US$100 billion.</p>
<p>Only once the developed countries have fulfilled their longstanding promise does a conversation about new climate finance contributors become politically possible.</p>
<p>The world has just endured the <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/last-12-months-hottest-record-climate">hottest 12 months</a> on record. Let us hope that these extreme temperatures light a fire under diplomats and negotiators, igniting a joint commitment to finding the finance to avert climate catastrophe.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The ODI research presented in this article was funded by the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance and the Federal Foreign Office of Germany.</span></em></p>Climate finance can help developing countries adapt to climate change and phase out their emissions.Sarah Colenbrander, Guest Lecturer, Climate Change Economics, University of Oxford & Director, Climate and Sustainability Programme, Overseas Development InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1950412022-11-21T16:01:01Z2022-11-21T16:01:01ZCOP27: how the fossil fuel lobby crowded out calls for climate justice<p>COP27 has just wrapped up. Despite much excitement over a new fund to address “loss and damage” caused by climate change, there is also anger about perceived backsliding on commitments to lower emissions and phase out fossil fuels. </p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.bristol.ac.uk/people/person/Alix-Dietzel-de568c8f-8312-4465-a8e3-be4d44d607dc/">academic expert in climate justice</a> who went along this year, hoping to make a difference, I share this anger.</p>
<p>“Together for Implementation” was the message as COP27 got underway on November 6 and some 30,000 people descended on the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El Sheik. The UNFCCC strictly regulates who can attend <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/overview/observer-organizations">negotiations</a>. Parties (country negotiation teams), the media and observers (NGOs, IGOs and UN special agencies) must all be pre-approved. </p>
<p>I went along as an NGO observer, to represent the University of Bristol <a href="http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/">Cabot Institute for the Environment</a>. Observers have access to the main plenaries and ceremonies, the pavilion exhibition spaces and side events. The negotiation rooms, however, are largely off limits. Most of the day is spent listening to speeches, networking and asking questions at side-events. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Woman sits in large conference room" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496511/original/file-20221121-14-sffl0l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The author at the COP27 opening plenary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Colin Nolden</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The main role of observers, then, is to apply indirect pressure on negotiators, report on what is happening and network. Meaningful impact on and participation in negotiations seems out of reach for many of the passionate people I met.</p>
<h2>Who does – and doesn’t – get a say</h2>
<p>It has long been known that who gets a say in climate change governance is skewed. As someone working on fair decision making as part of a just transition to less carbon-intensive lifestyles and a climate change-adapted society, it is clear that <a href="https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-global-justice-and-climate-governance.html">only the most powerful voices</a> are reflected in treaties such as the Paris Agreement. At last year’s COP26, men spoke <a href="https://odi.org/en/insights/what-would-an-inclusive-and-fair-cop26-have-looked-like/">74% of the time</a>, indigenous communities faced <a href="https://odi.org/en/insights/what-would-an-inclusive-and-fair-cop26-have-looked-like/">language barriers and racism</a> and those <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/just-how-inclusive-is-cop-26-102049">who could not obtain visas</a> were excluded entirely. </p>
<p>Despite being advertised as “Africa’s COP”, COP27 further hampered inclusion. The run up was dogged by accusations of inflated hotel prices and concerns over <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-have-sent-the-most-delegates-to-cop27/?utm_content=buffer32097&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer">surveillance</a>, and warnings about Egypt’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/18/greenwashing-police-state-egypt-cop27-masquerade-naomi-klein-climate-crisis">brutal police state</a>. The right to protest was limited, with campaigners complaining of <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/11/10/fossil-fuel-lobbyists-outnumber-almost-every-national-delegation-at-cop27-data-shows#:%7E:text=The%2520fossil%2520fuel%2520tally%2520dwarves,a%2520global%2520climate%2520risk%2520index.">intimidation and censorship</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Conference area with 'AfricaCOP27' sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496513/original/file-20221121-14-up6g48.JPEG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Africa’s COP?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alix Dietzel</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Arriving in Sharm El Sheik, there was an air of intimidation starting at the airport, where military personnel scrutinised passports. Police roadblocks featured heavily on our way to the hotel and military officials surrounded the COP venue the next morning. </p>
<p>Inside the venue, there were rumours we were <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/un-investigates-allegations-of-egypt-surveillance-at-cop27/a-63756174">being watched</a> and observers were urged <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/cop-27-climate-change-app-cybersecurity-weapon-risks/">not to download the official app</a>. More minor issues included voices literally not being heard due to unreliable microphones and the constant drone of aeroplanes overhead, and a scarcity of food with queues sometimes taking an hour or more. Sponsored by Coca Cola, it was also difficult to access water to refill our bottles. We were sold soft drinks instead. </p>
<p>Outside of the venue, unless I was with a male colleague, I faced near constant sexual harassment, hampering my ability to come and go from the summit. All these issues, major and minor, affect who is able to contribute at COP.</p>
<h2>Fossil fuel interests dominated</h2>
<p>In terms of numbers, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) registered the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-have-sent-the-most-delegates-to-cop27/?utm_content=buffer32097&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer">largest party delegation</a> with more than 1,000 people. The oil and gas-rich nation of just 9 million people had a delegation almost twice the size of the next biggest, Brazil. More troublingly, the oil and gas lobby representatives were registered in the national delegations of 29 different countries and were larger than any single national delegation (outside of the UAE). According to one NGO, at least 636 of those attending COP27 were <a href="https://kickbigpollutersout.org/big-polluters-at-cop27">lobbyists for the fossil-fuel industry</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Large oil tanker goes past city skyline" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496503/original/file-20221121-14-ox29i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The UAE has some of the world’s largest reserves of both oil and gas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nick Fox / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite the promise that COP27 would foreground African interests, the fossil lobby <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/11/10/fossil-fuel-lobbyists-outnumber-almost-every-national-delegation-at-cop27-data-shows#:%7E:text=The%2520fossil%2520fuel%2520tally%2520dwarves,a%2520global%2520climate%2520risk%2520index.">outnumbers any delegation from Africa</a>. These numbers give a sense of who has power and say at these negotiations, and who does not.</p>
<h2>Protecting the petrostates</h2>
<p>The main outcomes of COP27 are a good illustration of the power dynamics at play. There is some good news on loss and damage, which was added to the agenda <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2022/11/07/cop27-thorny-issue-of-loss-and-damage-added-to-official-agenda-for-first-time_6003275_114.html">at the last moment</a>. Nearly 200 countries agreed that a fund for loss and damage, which would pay out to rescue and rebuild the physical and social infrastructure of countries ravaged by extreme weather events, should be set up within the next year. However, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/world-still-on-brink-of-climate-catastrophe-after-cop27-deal">there is no agreement</a> yet on how much money should be paid in, by whom, and on what basis.</p>
<p>Much more worryingly, there had been a push to phase out all fossil fuels by countries including some of the biggest producers: the EU, Australia, India, Canada, the US and Norway. However, with China, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Iran pushing back, several commitments made at COP26 in Glasgow were dropped, including a target for global emissions to peak by 2025. The outcome was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/world-still-on-brink-of-climate-catastrophe-after-cop27-deal">widely judged a failure</a> on efforts to cut emissions: the final agreed text from the summit makes no mention of phasing out fossil fuels and scant reference to the 1.5°C target. </p>
<p>Laurence Tubiana, one of the architects of the Paris Agreement, blamed the host country, Egypt, for allowing its regional alliances to sway the final decision, producing a text that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/world-still-on-brink-of-climate-catastrophe-after-cop27-deal">clearly protects oil and gas petrostates</a> and the fossil fuel industries.</p>
<p>The final outcomes demonstrate that, despite the thousands who were there to advocate for climate justice, it was the fossil fuel lobby that had most influence. As a climate justice scholar, I am deeply worried about the processes at COPs, especially given next year’s destination: Dubai. It remains to be seen what happens with the loss and damage fund, but time is running out and watered down commitments on emissions are at this stage deeply unjust and frankly dangerous.</p>
<hr>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alix Dietzel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An expert in climate justice reports from Sharm El Sheikh.Alix Dietzel, Senior Lecturer in Climate Justice, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1946092022-11-16T20:12:55Z2022-11-16T20:12:55ZBehind the scenes: How COP27 reached a deal that supports better monitoring of oceans to curb climate crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495565/original/file-20221116-16-yjn9z8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C193%2C1946%2C1195&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Anya Waite (second from left) highlights the critical role of the ocean in regulating our climate, and the need to invest in observing oceans that store more than 90 per cent of all carbon, at COP27's Earth Information Day event.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/AlbertSFischer/status/1590331579947442176">(The Global Ocean Observing System)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/behind-the-scenes--how-cop27-reached-a-deal-that-supports-better-monitoring-of-oceans-to-curb-climate-crisis" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>It was 1 a.m. on Nov. 12, in a crowded meeting room on the outskirts of the <a href="https://www.cop27.eg/">COP27 climate conference</a> complex in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. As co-chair of the <a href="https://www.goosocean.org/">Global Ocean Observing System</a> (GOOS), I joined representatives from nations around the world as they inched toward an agreement on how to observe the changing atmosphere, land and ocean more comprehensively to ensure the world can reach its climate targets.</p>
<p>Tabled by the representatives of the <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/negotiations/un-framework-convention-climate-change-unfccc#:%7E:text=">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> (UNFCCC) and the World Meteorological Organization, the agreement would help improve and support the observation of the global climate system, including the oceans that control the climate.</p>
<p>The nations were prepared for these negotiations after COP27’s <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/earth-information-day-2022#:%7E:text=Earth%20Information%20Day%202022%20consisted,ongoing%20work%20under%20the%20UNFCCC.">Earth Information Day</a> event, which I moderated, but there was one hold up: The differences with a handful of nations for whom observation implied scrutiny on hard-to-manage emissions imposed by nations that caused most of the climate damage. It was frustratingly unclear whether the global goal would pass. The UNFCCC negotiators returned to the drawing board — working into the wee hours.</p>
<p>The following day, they emerged in weary triumph with an agreement on global observation. Soon after the agreement was completed, they turned their attention to the challenges of the next week’s COP agreements. Such unseen and often unglamorous efforts underpin the critical work to move nations to agreement at COP27.</p>
<h2>The carbon context</h2>
<p>The global ocean holds <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-net-zero-future-depends-on-the-oceans-ability-to-absorb-carbon-154453">50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and absorbs more carbon than all the rainforests on Earth</a>. To date, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau5153">ocean has absorbed 40 per cent of fossil fuel emissions</a> through chemical processes collectively known as the ocean carbon pump.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ew8TvXfei0Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The global ocean holds 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and absorbs more carbon than all the rainforests on Earth.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite having buffered human carbon emissions since the onset of global warming, the process by which oceans absorb carbon is changing at an uncertain rate. Coastal <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/ecosystems/coastal-blue-carbon/#:%7E:text=Salt%20marshes%2C%20mangroves%2C%20and%20seagrass,hundreds%20to%20thousands%20of%20years.">blue carbon ecosystems such as seagrasses and mangroves lock up critical carbon</a> stores in sediments and conserve a rich biodiversity. </p>
<p>But the largest carbon sink of all is on the high seas — the deep blue carbon embedded in the open ocean as plankton, salts and organic matter. Deep-blue carbon and the associated diverse ecosystems are challenging to observe due to difficulties in terms of access, expensive equipment and the fact that these exist beyond national jurisdictions.</p>
<p>This formal COP agreement provides a strong foundation for nations to act and for policymakers to heed the ocean observation community’s urgent appeal for investment in the internationally-linked observation systems that will resolve these problems. But these requests need to be focused and united — and the science community is anything but that.</p>
<h2>Bridging the science and policy gap</h2>
<p>Scientists, more often than not, have to focus on the technical minutiae of their work, even when attending such broad international meetings as COP27, to remain credible in their field. Intergovernmental work being done by groups like the UNFCCC’s <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/subsidiary-bodies/sbsta">Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice</a> is, often, invisible to them. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1590353789336576001"}"></div></p>
<p>This week at the <a href="https://cop27oceanpavilion.vfairs.com/">Ocean Pavillion at COP27</a>, Nigel Topping, the UK’s COP26 lead, criticized “the narcissism of small differences” in the climate community, highlighting how researchers, NGOs and even governments, sometimes, fail to achieve consensus for climate action because of minor differences in their perspective. </p>
<p>At COP27, achieving <a href="https://www.archdaily.com/991870/during-cop27-the-necessity-to-achieve-net-zero-comes-into-sharp-focus">net-zero emissions is an urgent global necessity</a>. The time to act is now, and the private and public sectors, researchers and policymakers must work together toward this goal. Achieving net-zero within this timeframe will not be possible without a better understanding of <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/ocean-earth-system/climate-variability">crucial carbon-absorbing mechanisms</a>. </p>
<p>Ocean and climate forecasters continue to grapple with increasing uncertainty of climate models. But they can rely on strong frameworks from the intergovernmental institutions like the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a>, which is building the bedrock of climate information through regular global assessments. This relies on the careful compilation of scientific knowledge and a remarkable international consensus process that informs governments and other stakeholders of the climate trajectory. </p>
<p>Internationally, several UN agencies have brought together the work of nations to support and inform global action based on the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">IPCC analysis</a>. The World Meteorological Organization recently launched <a href="https://community.wmo.int/joint-study-group-wmo-greenhouse-gas-monitoring-sg-ghg">a study group</a> that has been working on the development of an international greenhouse gas monitoring system. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.goosocean.org/">Global Ocean Observing System</a> (GOOS), led by UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, has proposed monitoring programs one of which — the <a href="https://www.goosocean.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=298&Itemid=433#:%7E:text=">Ocean Observing Co-Design</a> Program — has hightlighted the importance of ocean carbon observation for the global community.</p>
<h2>Emerging technologies</h2>
<p>Poorly co-ordinated efforts threaten our collective ability to set, track and meet climate targets. They can also hinder the development and scale-up of specific mitigation such as ocean-based <a href="https://www.climateworks.org/programs/carbon-dioxide-removal/oceans/">carbon dioxide removal (CDR)</a>. While using this technology is sometimes controversial, it’s critical if we want to follow what the IPPC says is now necessary.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1590426536196218880"}"></div></p>
<p>To be credible, CDR must be exceptionally well documented and carefully rolled out. It must also scale up quickly enough to impact the global climate. These competing demands are already causing tension within the community.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/London-Convention-Protocol.aspx">London Protocol</a> — one of the first global conventions adopted by the International Maritime Organization in 1975 to protect the marine environment from human activities — is framing ocean CDR technologies such as <a href="https://web.whoi.edu/ocb-fert/what-is-ocean-fertilization/#:%7E:text=Ocean%20fertilization%20is%20a%20form,down%20atmospheric%20CO2%20levels.">ocean fertilization</a> and <a href="https://oceanvisions.org/ocean-alkalinity-enhancement/">ocean alkalinity enhancement</a>.</p>
<h2>The need for an international climate observatory</h2>
<p>So how do we harness the UN climate frameworks into action? A <a href="https://www.ofi.ca/impact/policy/ocean-carbon/carbon-observatory">carbon or climate observatory</a> could emerge as a first mover for a global observation goal as a mandated observation system under the World Meteorological Organization. It would provide data and measurements to enhance global understanding of oceans’ capacity to continue to absorb carbon.</p>
<p>An international climate observatory would require leading nations to communicate, pool and co-ordinate their already substantial investments and expertise. Nations can draw on existing initiatives, such as the international telescopes or research from the International Space Station.</p>
<p>These commitments need to champion the multiple intergovernmental initiatives under the UNFCCC while maintaining a strong dialogue with the burgeoning private sector. </p>
<p>A new conversation is urgently needed to transform climate action — and the UNFCCC has initiated this conversation at COP27.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anya M. Waite is CEO and Scientific Director of the Ocean Frontier Institute. She volunteers as the Co-Chair of the Global Ocean Observing System, and serves on the WMO's Greenhouse Gas Study Group.</span></em></p>COP27’s agreement on observing the oceans sets a strong foundation for policymakers to invest in internationally linked observation that will help countries better monitor these carbon sinks.Anya M. Waite, CEO and Scientific Director, Ocean Frontier Institute; Professor and Associate VP Research, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1936712022-11-04T16:01:32Z2022-11-04T16:01:32ZCOP27: five things to expect from this year’s UN climate summit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493509/original/file-20221104-13-8avfhq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5991%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">rafapress / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world’s leaders are gathering for another global climate meeting, this time in <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/sharm-el-sheikh-climate-change-conference-cop27">Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt</a>. Expect a bustle of promises and pacts from countries and companies. Expect pressure on states to support people who are most and permanently affected by climate change. Don’t expect much more, but equally don’t lay the blame solely on the United Nations.</p>
<p>States are not doing what they’ve promised, according to a slate of recent reports. Countries’ promises and early actions show “<a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">no credible pathway</a>” to keeping the world below 1.5°C. Financial promises <a href="https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/">remain unkept</a>.</p>
<p>This meeting is an “in between” COP, focused on implementing policies that were agreed at the meetings in Glasgow (2021) and Paris (2015). That means there need to be clear signals that states are following up on past promises and decisions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493516/original/file-20221104-19-x272gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Large mosque with mountains in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493516/original/file-20221104-19-x272gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493516/original/file-20221104-19-x272gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493516/original/file-20221104-19-x272gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493516/original/file-20221104-19-x272gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493516/original/file-20221104-19-x272gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493516/original/file-20221104-19-x272gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493516/original/file-20221104-19-x272gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Sharm El-Sheikh on the Red Sea coast is best known for tourism and conferences.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kochneva Tetyana / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Overall, there will be a lot of “dialogues” and “work programmes” but there really is no area where a major outcome is expected – if you’re hoping for a Paris-style “Sharm El-Sheikh agreement” then you will be disappointed.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, lots of crucial discussions will take place over the next two weeks. Here are five key issues to look out for. In each case, failure to follow up on previous promises will likely haunt negotiations.</p>
<h2>1. Contentious new agenda items</h2>
<p>The first decision of the conference will be to adopt the agendas by consensus. These documents set out what issues will be discussed. The agendas can tell us a lot about the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-gets-prioritised-and-ignored-at-un-climate-negotiations/">traditional priorities</a> of the climate change negotiations, particularly that <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-gets-prioritised-and-ignored-at-un-climate-negotiations/">mitigation and national reporting</a> issues dominate.</p>
<p>There are four proposals for new agenda items at COP27 and at least three are contentious. At the outset – and, hopefully, before the negotiations formally begin – the presidency team will look to broker a deal to help get the agenda through. </p>
<p>Two of the new items relate to finance. One seeks negotiations on finance for <a href="https://theconversation.com/loss-and-damage-who-is-responsible-when-climate-change-harms-the-worlds-poorest-countries-and-what-does-compensation-look-like-192070">loss and damage</a>(more on that below). The other will try to align global financial flows to sustainable development pathways. This is very needed, but countries have wildly different views on how to go about pushing global financial assets toward low-carbon, climate-resilient investments.</p>
<p>A third agenda proposal concerns the “<a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/environment/article/2001459787/africa-group-of-negotiators-list-cop27-priorities-for-the-continent">special circumstances of Africa</a>”. In 2015, there was a push to have the climate vulnerability of the continent recognised in the Paris agreement. This didn’t happen and ever since has been proposed and deferred. But this year, the COP is in Africa.</p>
<h2>2. Vulnerable countries will demand finance for ‘loss and damage’</h2>
<p>Loss and damage refers to the permanent and negative impacts of climate change. Think of droughts and lost crops, super typhoons and lost lives. It’s the result of high emissions that cause problems beyond what can be adapted to.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493517/original/file-20221104-20-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite image of three hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493517/original/file-20221104-20-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493517/original/file-20221104-20-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493517/original/file-20221104-20-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493517/original/file-20221104-20-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493517/original/file-20221104-20-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493517/original/file-20221104-20-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493517/original/file-20221104-20-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vulnerable countries cannot simply ‘adapt’ to every aspect of climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">lavizzara / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How to provide finance for these losses is extremely contentious. Developed countries previously <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/bonn-climate-change-conference-sbi56-sbsta56-daily-report-6jun2022">blocked a proposal</a> to include this item on the agenda. These historic major emitters worry about liability and compensation. Vulnerable developing countries point to the need to plan for people to relocate and rebuild when disasters strike. For them, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/glasgow-dialogue">Glasgow dialogue</a> to explore finance options on loss and damage is not enough.</p>
<h2>3. Will there be stronger pledges?</h2>
<p>A key promise of Glasgow was to “keep 1.5 alive”. It didn’t succeed. The pledges put forward before Glasgow put us on track for a nearly 3°C warmer world. In the Glasgow climate pact, countries agreed to go home, revisit their pledges and bring something better to COP27. But to date, only 24 countries have put forward updated NDCs (nationally determined contributions – each country’s pledge to reduce emissions). According to the <a href="https://unfccc.int/ndc-synthesis-report-2022">UN Synthesis Report</a> on these pledges, the dial has barely flinched since Glasgow.</p>
<p>A work programme on how to scale up climate ambition before 2030 will continue in Egypt. It got off to a <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/bonn-climate-change-conference-sbi56-sbsta56-summary#brief-analysis-bonn-climate-change-conference">contentious start</a> and so far, seems stalled.</p>
<h2>4. Progress on climate finance</h2>
<p>In Glasgow, developed countries had to admit they failed to reach their ten-year-old promise to provide <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">US$100 billion (£88 billion) per year of climate finance</a>. This can be spent on anything from new solar farms to stronger sea walls or retraining for people whose livelihoods are no longer viable. One year on, developed countries still haven’t met this goal. It’s a huge blow to trust among countries.</p>
<p>Glasgow launched a work programme to design a new collective finance goal for 2025. These talks will continue at COP27 and will show the wide gulf in how countries view the quantity and quality of climate finance provided. Again, it’s likely there won’t be a big-bang outcome here but hopefully some progress.</p>
<h2>5. Building resilience among the most vulnerable</h2>
<p>Adaptation is often ignored compared with mitigation, but building resilience is an urgent need. There is a “global goal for adaptation” in the Paris agreement, and now a <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/glasgow-sharm-el-sheikh-WP-GGGA">two-year dialogue</a> on how to make that goal usable for countries as a guiding star to reduce their climate vulnerability. This will also help capture global progress on adaptation. The Egyptian COP presidency has cited adaptation as a priority, so perhaps there is room for a mid-dialogue outcome to raise the profile of adaptation.</p>
<p>Overall, COP27 is a mismatch of ambitions. While we need urgent action from states, the institutional machinery will keep ticking along. Both are important and need to reinforce one another. To advance these discussions, states need to implement climate policies at home, then showcase meaningful actions when they gather again for COP28 in Dubai in a year’s time.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The author also contributes to the <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/">Earth Negotiations Bulletin</a>, a publicly available record of global environmental negotiations.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193671/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jen Allan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Stronger pledges, more climate finance, and payments for loss and damage.Jen Allan, Lecturer in Environmental Politics, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1936762022-11-04T14:05:02Z2022-11-04T14:05:02ZCOP27: a year on from the Glasgow climate pact, the world is burning more fossil fuels than ever<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493522/original/file-20221104-13-deex2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pollution-smoke-factor-plan-air-sky-2126956787">Lane V. Erickson/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The burning of fossil fuels caused <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report_smaller.pdf">86% of all CO₂ emissions</a> during the past ten years. Despite being the primary culprits of global heating, coal, oil and gas were barely mentioned in the official texts of previous UN climate change summits. </p>
<p>That all <a href="https://www.ejiltalk.org/breaking-a-taboo-fossil-fuels-at-cop26/">changed</a> at COP26 in November 2021, where <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-glasgow-climate-pact-key-outcomes-from-cop26">the Glasgow climate pact</a> was signed. The agreement contained the first ever acknowledgement of the role of fossil fuels in causing climate change. It also urged nations to phase out measures which subsidise the extraction or consumption of fossil fuels and to “phase-down” coal power.</p>
<p>With COP27 beginning in Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt, it’s time for a progress update. Unfortunately, it’s not good news. The ongoing energy crisis – and the short-term responses to it by governments around the world – have made it more difficult to meet the pact’s goals of ending the dominance of fossil fuels.</p>
<h2>The global energy crisis</h2>
<p>The current predicament is probably the first of its kind in which prices for all fossil fuels have soared simultaneously. This has hiked electricity prices in turn.</p>
<p>Europe has had to rapidly adjust to Russia using its gas exports as a weapon since its invasion of Ukraine. As the Kremlin cut pipeline gas supplies, European countries rushed onto the global market for liquified natural gas (LNG) and increased imports from traditional partners such as Norway and Algeria. </p>
<p>This has raised natural gas prices to dizzying heights and created a global <a href="https://ukerc.ac.uk/news/the-eus-global-scramble-for-gas/">scramble for gas</a> in which Europe can outbid developing economies for essential LNG shipments, pushing countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh deeper into crisis. </p>
<p>To keep the lights on, some of these developing economies are resorting to the most polluting of all fossil fuels: coal. The International Energy Agency (IEA) <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-market-update-july-2022/demand">expects</a> that in 2022, global coal consumption will match its all-time high of 2013. </p>
<p>In the EU, demand for coal (primarily from the electricity sector) is expected to rise by <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-market-update-july-2022/demand">6.5%</a>. If current demand trends continue, global coal consumption will only be 8.7% lower in 2030 than what it was in 2021. To reach net zero emissions by 2050, this should be 32% lower. </p>
<p>The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), most notably Russia, recently decided to slash oil production by 2 million barrels a day in a bid to <a href="https://dawnmena.org/a-storm-is-brewing-in-oil-markets-after-the-opec-cuts/">hike oil prices</a>. Although OPEC+ justifies its decision by saying that it is anticipating a global recession that could herald a replay of the oil price crashes of 2008, 2014 and 2020, the EU and US have slammed the move as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/70853af8-b7a4-4a28-bdfe-b4f3e375a1f0">politically-motivated</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493329/original/file-20221103-20-6w5l0x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493329/original/file-20221103-20-6w5l0x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493329/original/file-20221103-20-6w5l0x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493329/original/file-20221103-20-6w5l0x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493329/original/file-20221103-20-6w5l0x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493329/original/file-20221103-20-6w5l0x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493329/original/file-20221103-20-6w5l0x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493329/original/file-20221103-20-6w5l0x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil prices are tracking upwards again.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">WTI/Mathieu Blondeel</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To bring down high fossil fuel prices, governments globally are resorting to the very subsidies they agreed to phase out. These <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02847-2">subsidies</a> cut fuel costs for consumers by fixing the price at petrol pumps, for example.</p>
<p>After a noticeable dip in 2020, fossil fuel subsidies expanded in 2021. The energy crisis has prompted another sharp increase according to IEA estimate for 2022. In the past, developing economies were criticised for using these fiscal tools, not least for subsidising fossil fuel burning. Any such criticism rings particularly hollow now as rich countries race to do the same thing. </p>
<h2>Fossil fuels at COP27</h2>
<p>US and European allies pressured developing countries at COP26 to commit to bolder action to eliminate coal power, often touting natural gas as a useful <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-gas-in-todays-energy-transitions">transition fuel</a>. Now, Europe is limiting their access to alternatives by outbidding Asian and Latin American developing countries on the global LNG market while firing up their own mothballed <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2022/09/02/despite-climate-commitments-the-eu-is-going-back-to-coal_5995594_19.html">coal-fired power stations</a>, or extending the lifetime of operating ones. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-why-china-and-india-arent-the-climate-villains-of-cop26-171879">Coal: why China and India aren't the climate villains of COP26</a>
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<p>Western leaders have also <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/india-isnt-likely-to-stop-buying-russian-oil-any-time-soon-heres-why.html">criticised</a> China and India for buying more Russian oil and gas, financing Putin’s invasion in the process. But since the start of the war, Russia has earned <a href="https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/">€108 billion (£94 billion) in fossil fuel sales</a> to the EU alone, accounting for over half of the country’s income from oil and gas exports. </p>
<p>While pipeline flows from Russia to the EU are down substantially, Russian LNG exports have actually <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/energy_climate_change_environment/overall_targets/documents/quarterly_report_on_european_gas_markets_q2_2022_final_0.pdf">gone up</a>. Depressed demand for gas in China (due to ongoing COVID-19 restrictions) is the saving grace that allowed Europe <a href="https://theconversation.com/nord-stream-leaks-where-will-europe-get-its-gas-from-now-191529">to fill</a> its storage tanks ahead of winter. </p>
<p>One year on from the Glasgow climate pact, emissions pledges and promises have yielded to immediate security concerns. A short-term dash for gas and coal might make sense given the shock of Russia’s invasion, but ideally sky-high fossil fuel prices would speed up the transition to renewables. </p>
<p>Simply swapping fossil fuel dependence from one exporter to another is bad for the climate and certainly does not make energy supply more secure and affordable. Rather than an energy price crisis, the world is grappling with a fossil fuel price crisis. </p>
<p>The IEA expects that demand for fossil fuels will peak <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022/executive-summary">within five years</a> thanks to programmes like the EU’s RePowerEU plan, the US Inflation Reduction Act and Japan’s green transformation plan, which incentivise renewables. But despite these interventions, current emission pathways predict <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">2.6°C</a> of warming by 2100 – well above the objectives of the Paris agreement.</p>
<p>Negotiations at COP27 should be held with the full understanding that fossil fuels are not exiting the global energy mix. Developed countries must take a leading role in phasing them out to allowing developing countries to adapt a slower pace. This is the key to a fair transition away from the fuels driving climate breakdown.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mathieu Blondeel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fossil fuels were named as the problem at COP26. We’re no closer to eliminating them a year on.Mathieu Blondeel, Research Fellow, Strategy & International Business Group, Warwick Business School, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1933162022-11-03T13:47:26Z2022-11-03T13:47:26ZCOP27 must work out how to cut carbon and still develop African economies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492718/original/file-20221101-18-iqric5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Averting a climate disaster without compromising economic growth and development is a key issue for African countries. Energy production and use is the single biggest contributor to global warming, <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/energy">accounting for</a> roughly two-thirds of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, electricity use and access are <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7jb0015q">strongly correlated</a> with economic development.</p>
<p>Many African countries are lagging behind in electricity generation and access. According to the <a href="https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/">Energy Progress Report</a>, in 2020 the 20 countries with the lowest rates of access to electricity were all in sub-Saharan Africa. For example, just 7% of the population in South Sudan and 11% of the population in Chad have access to electricity. Even among the most populous countries in Africa, access to electricity is still limited – 55.4% and 51.1% of the populations of Nigeria and Ethiopia, <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=ZG-NG">respectively</a>, have access to electricity.</p>
<p>To close these gaps, energy demand on the continent is <a href="https://www.undp.org/africa/news/africas-just-energy-transition-priority-world-moves-toward-decarbonization">expected to grow</a> by 60% by 2040. </p>
<p>Sufficient energy <a href="https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Modern-Energy-Minimum-Sept30.pdf">is essential</a> for most economic activities. Coal, petroleum and natural gas made a significant amount of productive energy available during the industrial revolution. This led to human health and welfare improvements. Cost effective and abundant energy is a key driver for economic growth. </p>
<p>African countries will find it hard to grow their economies and pull their people out of poverty if they can’t take advantage of their abundant energy resources. For example, Africa <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2019">holds</a> 13% of the world’s remaining recoverable gas resources. </p>
<p>So the global effort to cut the use of these resources presents a barrier to Africa’s growth, unless sufficient financing is available to fully transition to renewable and sustainable fuels at a scale needed to support economic growth. </p>
<h2>Africa’s challenges</h2>
<p><a href="https://grist.org/politics/the-u-s-has-officially-stopped-financing-new-coal-plants-abroad/">Over the past few years</a>, the West has been taking a rather coercive approach to Africa’s decarbonisation – the removal or reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) output into the atmospher. They’ve cut back financing for gas and coal energy projects in Africa, while still pursuing their own new gas and coal deals. In addition, an analysis by the International Renewable Energy Agency <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Jan/Renewable-Energy-Market-Analysis-Africa">showed</a> minimum global renewable energy investments in Africa (only 2% out of all the renewable energy investments in the world) over the last two decades. </p>
<p>Without the West’s backing, Africa’s energy decisions might solely rely on resource abundance and cost efficiency. This could lead to further dependence on fossil fuels. </p>
<p>Global environmental problems such as climate change require cooperation at the local, national and international level. The West’s support for Africa is essential to align global decarbonisation targets with regional realities. </p>
<p>Without support to maximise the available resources, economies of scale, cost efficiencies, capacity building, and the potential to electrify large numbers of the population, a focus on renewables alone becomes unjust and unrealistic for Africa. </p>
<h2>Just electrification in a net-zero world</h2>
<p>My <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=U7pa2O0AAAAJ&hl=en">research</a> interests focus on energy production and sustainable development. The need to invest in alternative, sustainable fuels to meet the projected demand is critical. </p>
<p>One of the main challenges at COP27 – the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference – will be agreeing on who decides when and how countries ought to transition to net-zero emissions. Put simply, net zero <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">means</a> cutting greenhouse gas emissions to as close to zero as possible.</p>
<p>Conversations at COP27 should centre on Africa’s interests in order to advance a “just transition” for all. A just transition is one in which social and economic opportunities of climate action are maximised, while challenges – such as inequitable distribution of benefits and costs – are minimised. </p>
<p>Africa <a href="https://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.14324/111.444/000180.v1">bears</a> the brunt of climate change impacts without being responsible for them. This <a href="https://www.clubofrome.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Earth4All_Deep_Dive_Ghosh.pdf">undermines</a> the opportunity to create a just energy transition for all with fair assignment of climate responsibility. </p>
<p>Negotiations must find pathways for Africa to deliver electricity for economic empowerment, while depending less on harmful fuels.</p>
<h2>Governance</h2>
<p>Deep decarbonisation and net-zero world goals are paramount to combating the climate crisis. However, the pace and methods of achieving them might come at the cost of leaving millions in the dark with little access to electricity. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/j.1478-9302.2010.00226.x">new polycentric model of international climate governance</a> is needed. The old one resembled an era of hierarchy and power concentration in fewer countries. This led to a lack of cooperation at the international level. </p>
<p>The polycentric model could help facilitate the understanding on the need to advance access to electricity while mitigating the climate crisis. This cooperative governance model could correct the past inequitable distribution of benefits and costs by implementing the following three main principles:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Let those affected by climate change decide when and how to transition to net-zero emissions.</p></li>
<li><p>Replace hierarchical (or “double-standard”) principles with cooperative and polycentric approaches.</p></li>
<li><p>Make autonomy and partnerships pillars of decentralised international cooperation.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>COP27 should embrace the notion that the decisions that shape the lives of Africans should be shaped by Africans. </p>
<p>The people affected by climate change should decide when and how to transition to net-zero emissions. Autonomy and partnerships should characterise international cooperation.</p>
<h2>Energy solutions</h2>
<p>Renewable energy – such as solar, wind and hydro power – is an attractive option. In Africa, women and children <a href="https://cleancooking.org/the-issues/health/">die from</a> household air pollution due to the reliance on wood, charcoal, or coal as energy sources. Citizens are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629620302140">further affected</a> by forced displacements that occur to accommodate large fossil-based energy infrastructure, like power stations. </p>
<p>A shift away from these practices would allow for a more people-centred clean energy future. There’s an opportunity to bypass a centralised energy system based on fossil fuel. It could be based on renewable energy instead, distributed through mini grids. If done right, this could provide full electrification without the cost of creating coal or natural gas power plants. Some of these power stations will be stranded anyway in the move away from fossil fuels.</p>
<h2>The path to just electrification</h2>
<p>Working together to balance clean energy and electrification in Africa will be a gradual process. The key enabling factor in this process is financing. Financing is needed for new technologies, resilient infrastructure and building people’s capacity. </p>
<p>COP27 is Africa’s turn to map this path.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bethel Tarekegne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A key issue for African countries is: how to contribute towards averting a climate disaster without compromising economic growth and development.Bethel Tarekegne, Research Engineer, Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1915862022-10-04T19:06:02Z2022-10-04T19:06:02ZAlmost 200 nations are set to tackle climate change at COP27 in Egypt. Is this just a talkfest, or does the meeting actually matter?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487961/original/file-20221004-22-4jo9ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5168%2C3437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a crucial meeting for tackling the climate crisis, almost 200 countries will come together <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/egypt-hosting-cop27-can-it-become-africas-climate-champion">in Egypt</a> at the start of November for a “Conference of the Parties”, or COP27.</p>
<p>You may remember hearing about COP26 in Glasgow about this time last year. It was <a href="https://ukcop26.org/around-120-leaders-gather-at-cop26-in-glasgow-for-last-best-chance-to-keep-1-5-alive/">often hailed</a> as our “last best chance” to keep global warming under 1.5°C this century. </p>
<p>Since then, emissions have reached <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/06/30/greenhouse-emissions-rise-to-record-erasing-drop-during-pandemic">record levels</a> after the pandemic downturn. And this year alone, we’ve seen dozens of <a href="https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/">catastrophic disasters</a> ranging from drought in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/somalia-on-the-brink-of-famine-aid-efforts-risk-failing-marginalised-communities-yet-again-190174">Horn of Africa</a> to floods in <a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-floods-what-role-did-climate-change-play-189833">Pakistan</a>, South Africa and Australia, and wildfires and heatwaves in Europe, the United States, Mongolia and South America, <a href="https://theconversation.com/2022s-supercharged-summer-of-climate-extremes-how-global-warming-and-la-nina-fueled-disasters-on-top-of-disasters-190546">among others</a>. </p>
<p>As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129127?utm_source=UN+News+-+Newsletter&utm_campaign=3ec6666237-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_10_03_11_22&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fdbf1af606-3ec6666237-107091541">said this week</a>:</p>
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<p>On every climate front, the only solution is decisive action in solidarity. COP27 is the place for all countries […] to show they are in this fight and in it together.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So, as disasters intensify and war rages in Ukraine, what can we expect from this important summit?</p>
<h2>What happens at COP meetings?</h2>
<p>Conferences of the Parties are held under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and this year marks its 30th anniversary since it was established at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit. COP27 will be held in Egypt’s resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh. </p>
<p>COPs allow the international community to decide on a fair allocation of responsibility for addressing climate change. That is, who should lead in emissions reduction, who should pay for transitioning to new forms of energy production and who should compensate those already feeling the effects of climate change. </p>
<p>They also allow countries to agree on rules for meeting commitments, or processes to transfer funds and resources from wealthy countries to poorer ones. And they provide opportunities for sharing the latest climate change research.</p>
<p>Just as importantly, COP meetings focus international attention on the climate crisis and responses to it. This creates pressure for countries to make new commitments or, at least, to play a constructive role in negotiations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-were-at-cop26-it-had-mixed-results-172558">We were at COP26: It had mixed results</a>
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<h2>Is COP27 less important than COP26?</h2>
<p>In some ways, COP27 is less significant than COP26. That meeting, the first for two years after a COVID-19 delay, was the deadline for countries to commit new emissions reduction targets under the rules of the 2015 Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>The agreement allowed countries to make their own commitments, with the expectation these would be ratcheted up every five years. Glasgow was essentially a big test of whether the deal actually worked to increase commitments addressing climate change.</p>
<p>Glasgow was also significant because it was the first COP since the US returned to the fold after the Trump administration’s withdrawal. </p>
<p>By contrast, Sharm el-Sheikh is less a test of the agreement itself. It is more an opportunity for renewed commitment on mitigation and finance, and deciding on next steps for realising these commitments. </p>
<p>But there is still plenty at stake, and a few crucial points of debate loom.</p>
<h2>Will more countries make new commitments?</h2>
<p>The first big test for COP27 will be whether countries make new emissions reduction commitments.</p>
<p>At Glasgow, more than 100 nations committed to new emissions reduction targets. But these commitments still fell well short of what’s needed to reach the goals agreed at Paris.</p>
<p>Instead of providing a pathway <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement#:%7E:text=Its%20goal%20is%20to%20limit,neutral%20world%20by%20mid%2Dcentury">to limit</a> global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, Glasgow commitments were shown to put the world on track for <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/">a 2.4°C increase</a> by the end of the century. </p>
<p>This would endanger people and ecosystems throughout the world. And that’s assuming those countries even meet the targets.</p>
<p>Despite this, in the lead up to COP27 fewer than 20 countries have provided updates, and only a handful of these <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker-2022/">have outlined</a> new emissions reduction targets or net-zero commitments. Of these, only India and Australia are among emitters <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/271748/the-largest-emitters-of-co2-in-the-world/">producing more than 1%</a> of global carbon dioxide emissions. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1577033497172058112"}"></div></p>
<h2>Show us the money</h2>
<p>Three big issues around climate finance – <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/introduction-to-climate-finance#:%7E:text=What%20is%20climate%20finance%3F,that%20will%20address%20climate%20change.">funds to support</a> mitigation and adaptation – also loom in Egypt. </p>
<p>The first is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">the failure</a> of developed states to make good on their 2009 commitment to provide US$100 billion per year in funds for developing states. This issue was raised at Glasgow, but hasn’t gone anywhere since. And there’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/wealthy-countries-still-havent-met-their-100-billion-pledge-to-help-poor-countries-face-climate-change-and-the-risks-are-rising-173229">no prospect</a> of this target being met in 2022. </p>
<p>Second, developing countries, including <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/pacific-island-leaders-declare-climate-emergency/">many Pacific nations</a>, will call for greater focus on finance for <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/the-big-picture/new-elements-and-dimensions-of-adaptation-under-the-paris-agreement-article-7">adapting to</a> the impacts of global warming.</p>
<p>So far, most of the funds have been channelled to <a href="https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/">mitigation projects</a>, focused on helping developing states reduce their emissions. But as climate change becomes increasingly felt in developing states, funding for adaptation has become even more important.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flooding-in-pakistan-shows-that-climate-adaptation-requires-international-support-and-regional-co-operation-189853">Flooding in Pakistan shows that climate adaptation requires international support and regional co-operation</a>
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<p>Third, the Paris Agreement included recognition of likely “<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop27-why-is-addressing-loss-and-damage-crucial-for-climate-justice/#:%7E:text=COP27%20is%20a%20chance%20for,the%20needs%20of%20the%20continent">loss and damage</a>”. This refers to destruction wreaked by climate change, where mitigation and adaptation efforts were insufficient to prevent that harm. </p>
<p>At the time, there was no commitment to provide compensation for loss and damage. In Egypt, developing states will likely push harder for financial commitments from the developed world. </p>
<p>The developed world has contributed most significantly to climate change and can better pay to insulate from its effects. But the developing world is least responsible, more likely to feel climate effects and least able to pay for managing those effects.</p>
<p>With the location of these talks in Africa, we can expect these issues to be particularly prominent at COP27. </p>
<h2>The storm clouds of international politics</h2>
<p>While global agreement on climate action has been difficult to achieve in the past, recent international politics cast further shadow over the prospects for genuine cooperation at COP27.</p>
<p>First, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine <a href="https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/what-is-cop27-this-years-crucial-climate-talks-explained/">has led to</a> rising global inflation, soaring energy prices and increasing international concerns about energy access. All these have taken attention – and even potential funding – from the imperative of climate action. </p>
<p>It also has meant Russia, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-climate-laggards-change-russia-like-australia-first-needs-to-overcome-significant-domestic-resistance-170461">key player</a> in international climate talks, could play a spoiler role. </p>
<p>Second, China, the world’s largest emitter, looks similarly disaffected with current global politics. This has been evident in its approach to international climate politics. </p>
<p>For example, in Glasgow, China made a breakthrough agreement with the US on climate cooperation. But this <a href="https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/roundtable-the-implications-of-the-us-and-china-suspending-climate-cooperation/">was suspended</a> soon after US House of Representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022.</p>
<h2>We’re running out of time</h2>
<p>Egypt’s Minister for International Cooperation <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/25/egypt-climate-finance-top-of-agenda-cop27-talks">announced in May</a> that the focus of international action at COP27 should be moving from “pledges to implementation”.</p>
<p>While this includes targets to reduce emissions, the hosts have also been clear about the need for developed states to make good on meeting their financial commitments. The onset of climate change has clearly made this an urgent concern for many in the developing world who are already feeling its effects. </p>
<p>And clearly, these talks are a pivotal moment for the planet, as we risk <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/27/time-running-out-us-germany-intensify-climate-change-fight">running out of time</a> in our efforts to avoid climate catastrophe.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-peoples-across-the-globe-are-uniquely-equipped-to-deal-with-the-climate-crisis-so-why-are-we-being-left-out-of-these-conversations-171724">Indigenous peoples across the globe are uniquely equipped to deal with the climate crisis – so why are we being left out of these conversations?</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the UK Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>Remember hearing about COP26 in Glasgow last year? There’s a lot at stake in this year’s climate summit, so here’s your essential guide to prepare.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1826432022-05-10T12:05:30Z2022-05-10T12:05:30Z6 months after the climate summit, where to find progress on climate change in a more dangerous and divided world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462126/original/file-20220509-12310-eciia4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=348%2C69%2C5697%2C3829&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Germany, heavily reliant on natural gas from Russia, has seen a fast expansion in solar power since Russia attacked Ukraine.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GermanyEnergy/45034bc9133647bf9b63f99732a63c02/photo?Query=22124274857730">AP Photo/Martin Meissner</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Six months ago, negotiators at the United Nations’ <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">Glasgow climate summit</a> celebrated a series of new commitments to lower global greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience to the impacts of climate change. Analysts concluded that the new promises, including phasing out coal, would <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/">bend the global warming trajectory</a>, though still fall short of the Paris climate agreement.</p>
<p>Today, the world looks ever more complex. Russia is waging a war on European soil, with global <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/system-shock-russias-war-and-global-food-energy-and-mineral-supply-chains">implications for energy and food supplies</a>. Some leaders who a few months ago were vowing to phase out fossil fuels are <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/13/biden-gas-supply-climate-change-00024776">now encouraging fossil fuel companies</a> to ramp up production. </p>
<p>In the U.S., the Biden administration has struggled to get its promised actions through Congress. Last-ditch efforts have been underway to salvage some kind of climate and energy bill from the abandoned <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/10/28/president-biden-announces-the-build-back-better-framework/">Build Back Better plan</a>. Without it, U.S. commitments to reduce emissions by over 50% by 2030 look fanciful, and the rest of the world knows it – adding another blow to U.S. credibility overseas.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, severe famines have hit Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Extreme heat has been threatening lives <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astonishing-heat-grips-india-and-pakistan/">across India and Pakistan</a>. Australia faced <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/149685/flooding-in-eastern-australia">historic flooding</a>, and the Southwestern U.S. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-southwest-is-on-fire-with-iconic-deserts-and-towns-at-risk-biden-issues-a-disaster-declaration-182426">can’t keep up with the wildfires</a>.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/rachel-kyte">a former senior U.N. official</a>, I’ve been involved in international climate negotiations for several years. At the halfway point of this year’s climate negotiations, with the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/sharm-el-sheikh-climate-change-conference-november-2022">next U.N. climate conference</a> in November 2022, here are three areas to watch for progress and cooperation in a world full of danger and division.</p>
<h2>Crisis response with long-term benefits</h2>
<p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added to a triple whammy of <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/ukraine-energy-and-food-radio-davos/">food price, fuel price and inflationary spikes</a> in a global economy still struggling to emerge from the pandemic.</p>
<p>But Russia’s aggression <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-06/eu-revises-russia-oil-sanctions-plan-to-give-hungary-more-time">has also forced Europe</a> and others to move away from <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/how-russian-oil-flows-to-europe/">dependence on Russian oil, gas and coal</a>. The G7 – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. – pledged on May 8, 2022, to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/08/g7-leaders-statement-2/">phase out or ban Russian oil</a> and accelerate their shifts to clean energy.</p>
<p>In the short term, Europe’s pivot means much more energy efficiency – the International Energy Agency estimates that the European Union can save 15%-20% of energy demand with <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/energy-saving-actions-by-eu-citizens-could-save-enough-oil-to-fill-120-super-tankers-and-enough-natural-gas-to-heat-20-million-homes">efficiency measures</a>. It also means <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/25/fact-sheet-united-states-and-european-commission-announce-task-force-to-reduce-europes-dependence-on-russian-fossil-fuels/">importing oil and gas</a> from elsewhere.</p>
<p>In the medium term, the answer lies in <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/will-russias-war-spur-europe-to-move-on-green-energy">ramping up renewable energy</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462127/original/file-20220509-21-8unyk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Men and women talking in a conference room with table placemarker reading " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462127/original/file-20220509-21-8unyk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462127/original/file-20220509-21-8unyk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462127/original/file-20220509-21-8unyk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462127/original/file-20220509-21-8unyk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462127/original/file-20220509-21-8unyk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462127/original/file-20220509-21-8unyk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462127/original/file-20220509-21-8unyk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Former Secretary of State John Kerry, representing the U.S. at the U.N. climate talks in November 2021, speaks with negotiators from Europe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ClimateCOP26summit/21ac41d9415f449abea6e00a98d1d2b3/photo">AP Photo/Alastair Grant</a></span>
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<p>There are issues to solve. As Europe buys up gas from other places, it risks reducing gas supplies relied on by other countries, and <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/global-co2-emissions-rebounded-to-their-highest-level-in-history-in-2021">forcing some of those countries to return to coal</a>, a <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/environmental-impacts-natural-gas">more carbon-intense</a> fuel that destroys air quality. Some countries will need help expanding renewable energy and stabilizing energy prices to avoid a backlash to pro-climate policies.</p>
<p>As the West races to renewables, it will also need to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/22/fact-sheet-securing-a-made-in-america-supply-chain-for-critical-minerals/">secure a supply chain</a> for <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-worried-about-its-critical-minerals-supply-chains-essential-for-electric-vehicles-wind-power-and-the-nations-defense-157465">critical minerals and metals</a> necessary for batteries and renewable energy technology, including replacing an overdependence on China with <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/transcripts/transcript-us-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-on-the-next-steps-for-russia-sanctions-and-friend-shoring-supply-chains/">multiple supply sources</a>.</p>
<h2>Ensuring integrity in corporate commitments</h2>
<p>Finance leaders and other private sector coalitions made headline-grabbing commitments at the Glasgow climate conference in November 2021. They promised to <a href="https://www.gfanzero.com/about/">accelerate their transitions to net-zero</a> emissions by 2050, and some firms and financiers were specific about <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/end-of-coal-in-sight-at-cop26">ending financing for coal plants that don’t capture and store their carbon</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-global-methane-pledge-can-buy-time-while-the-world-drastically-reduces-fossil-fuel-use-171182">cutting methane emissions</a> and supporting ending deforestation.</p>
<p>Their promises faced <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/greta-thunberg-slams-cop26-as-greenwashing-failure/a-59738745">cries of “greenwash”</a> from many climate advocacy groups. Some efforts are now underway to hold companies, as well as countries, to their commitments.</p>
<p>A U.N. group chaired by former Canadian Environment Minister Catherine McKenna is now <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/high-level-expert-group">working on a framework</a> to hold companies, cities, states and banks to account when they claim to have “net-zero” emissions. This is designed to ensure that companies that pledged last year to meet net-zero now say how, and on what scientific basis. </p>
<p>For many companies, especially those with large emissions footprints, part of their commitment to get to net-zero includes buying carbon offsets – often investments in nature – to balance the ledger. This summer, two efforts to put guardrails around voluntary carbon markets are expected to issue their first sets of guidance <a href="https://icvcm.org">for issuers of carbon credits</a> and for <a href="https://vcmintegrity.org">firms that want to use voluntary carbon markets</a> to fulfill their net-zero claims. The goal is to ensure carbon markets reduce emissions and provide a steady stream of revenue for parts of the world that need finance for their green growth.</p>
<h2>Climate change influencing elections</h2>
<p>Climate change is now an increasingly important factor in elections.</p>
<p>French President Emmanuel Macron, trying to woo supporters of a candidate to his left and energize young voters, <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/04/26/macron-promises-to-abandon-gas-oil-and-coal-but-will-he-deliver/">made more dramatic climate pledges</a>, vowing to be “the first major nation to abandon gas, oil and coal.”</p>
<p>With Chile’s swing to the left, the country’s redrafted constitution will incorporate <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/28/climate/chile-constitution-climate-change.html">climate stewardship</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459594/original/file-20220425-2721-261e0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Morrison and his wife holds hands and smile on the left while a protester in a 'stop Adani' t-shirt is held back by security on the right." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459594/original/file-20220425-2721-261e0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459594/original/file-20220425-2721-261e0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459594/original/file-20220425-2721-261e0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459594/original/file-20220425-2721-261e0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459594/original/file-20220425-2721-261e0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459594/original/file-20220425-2721-261e0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459594/original/file-20220425-2721-261e0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison (left) has faced protests over his support for the Adani Carmichael mine, one of the largest coal mines in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/AustraliaElection/49f31511876a48b5a930a2def85e16b5/photo">AP Photo/Rick Rycroft</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Australia, Scott Morrison’s government – which supported opening one of the world’s largest coal mines at the same time the Australian <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/2021-australian-energy-statistics-electricity">private sector is focusing</a> on renewable energy – faces an election on May 21, 2022, with heatwaves and extreme flooding fresh in voters’ minds. Brazil’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-authoritarianism-and-worsening-climate-change-share-a-fossil-fueled-secret-181012">Jair Bolsonaro</a> faces opponents in October who are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/15/climate/brazil-elections-lula-climate.html">talking about protecting the climate</a>.</p>
<p>Elections are fought and won on pocketbook issues, and energy prices are high and inflation is taking hold. But voters around the world are also <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/09/14/in-response-to-climate-change-citizens-in-advanced-economies-are-willing-to-alter-how-they-live-and-work/">experiencing the effects</a> of climate change firsthand and are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/09/14/climate-change-threat/">increasingly concerned</a>.</p>
<h2>The next climate conference</h2>
<p>Countries will be facing a different set of economic and security challenges when the next round of <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/sharm-el-sheikh-climate-change-conference-november-2022">U.N. talks begins in November</a> in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, compared to the challenges they faced in Glasgow. They will be expected to show progress on their commitments while struggling for bandwidth, dealing with the climate emergency as an integral part of security, economic recovery and global health.</p>
<p>There is no time to push climate action out into the future. Every decimal point of warming avoided is an opportunity for better health, more prosperity and better security.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte is a member of the U.N. secretary-general’s high-level advisory group on climate action and co-chair of the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative.</span></em></p>War, famine and an energy crunch are affecting the world’s response to climate change, but there are reasons for optimism.Rachel Kyte, Dean of the Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1791492022-03-29T17:01:30Z2022-03-29T17:01:30ZHere’s how the new global treaty on plastic pollution can help solve this crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454503/original/file-20220327-23-t0nolq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The global issue of plastic pollution has been has been worsening every year, disrupting the entire ecosystem.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/here-s-how-the-new-global-treaty-on-plastic-pollution-can-help-solve-this-crisis" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://www.unep.org/interactives/beat-plastic-pollution/">Plastic pollution is a global problem</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc4428">contaminating terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems</a>. Microplastics — plastic particles smaller than five millimetres in size — infiltrate and circulate in the global planetary <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz5819">dust cycle</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/EN14167">water cycle</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.609243">carbon cycle</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b01517">Microplastics have infiltrated</a> the food and water we consume and the air we breathe. These tiny plastic particles can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2044">harm wildlife</a> populations and communities, threatening the ecological balance. A new paper suggests plastics are a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c04158">planetary boundary threat</a> and that we are outside the safe operating space. </p>
<p>In early March, after years of negotiations, delegates from 175 nations committed to <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/historic-day-campaign-beat-plastic-pollution-nations-commit-develop">draft the first global treaty on plastic pollution</a> at the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi. This resolution comes 30 years after the creation of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">first global treaty to address climate change</a> in 1992, which recognized there was a problem with greenhouse gases but did not include quantitative global targets until the <a href="https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a> in 2005. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://rochmanlab.wordpress.com/people/">researchers studying plastic pollution</a> and <a href="https://uofttrashteam.ca/">working at the science-policy interface</a>, we believe there is enough evidence regarding contamination and the effects of plastic pollution to see that the first treaty on plastic needs to include quantitative targets and binding measures that facilitate a circular economy — a system that focuses on reusing and reducing plastic waste. </p>
<h2>No time to waste</h2>
<p>As with climate change, the urgency to find a solution to plastic pollution is clear. Trends show an <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2020/07/23/breaking-the-plastic-wave-top-findings">increasing trajectory for plastic emissions</a> — plastic emitted into the environment — just as they do for <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions">greenhouse gas emissions</a>. </p>
<p>In 2021, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3656">estimated</a> that around 30 million tonnes of plastic waste was emitted into freshwater and marine ecosystems. If we continue business as usual, that number could increase more than two-fold by the end of this decade. </p>
<p>In 2017, we called for a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1714450114">global treaty</a> to facilitate collaboration on this global issue, and in 2020 a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3656">systemic shift in the plastics economy</a> — bending our current linear plastic economy (take-make-waste) into a circular economy (take-make-reuse), fundamentally changing the way we use plastic materials to minimize waste. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A giant art sculpture showing a tap outpouring plastic bottles." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A giant art sculpture showing a tap outpouring plastic bottles was erected outside the UN Environment Program headquarters in Nairobi, on March 2, 2022, during the UN Environment Assembly where delegates met to discuss a binding international framework to address the growing problem of plastic waste in the world’s oceans, rivers and landscapes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Brian Inganga)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Our vision of an effective treaty</h2>
<p>A global treaty on plastic must have a circular economy at its core. It should also set global targets for reducing plastic emissions akin to the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> for carbon emissions. </p>
<p>To facilitate success, the treaty should include global mechanisms that incentivize a circular economy, methods for reporting plastic emissions at the local and national level and resources that aid economies in measuring and reducing these emissions.</p>
<p>To measurably reduce plastic emissions, we envision a global treaty where countries sign on as signatories with a defined reduction target. For example, each country might agree to reduce 40 per cent of its emissions by 2030 from base-year levels. </p>
<p>To facilitate a circular economy, there needs to be a global cap on virgin plastic production, recycled content standards or a shift from incentives for virgin plastic to incentives for post-consumer recycled plastic.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zCRKvDyyHmI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">When it comes to dealing with plastic waste, we need to switch our take-make-waste approach for a take-make-reuse one.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Each country needs to come up with a strategy to meet reduction targets. Because there is no one-size-fits-all solution, each country may take on its own set of unique solutions to reach its target. </p>
<p>For example, countries may adopt <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43571269">container deposit schemes</a> to increase recycling rates, eliminate the use of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2021/12/government-of-canada-moving-forward-with-banning-harmful-single-use-plastics0.html">single-use plastic items</a> like plastic bags and straws that are not essential and do not fit into a circular economy, improve waste collection and management infrastructure, and agree to market only plastics that are either recyclable or reusable in their region, if not both. </p>
<p>Each year countries must report their plastic emissions to a body like the <a href="https://unfccc.int/">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)</a> as part of this treaty. Determining baseline emissions, setting reduction targets and tracking our progress towards meeting those targets require formal accounting. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pile of plastic waste littered in a forest area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regular reporting of plastic emissions to the UNFCCC as part of this new treaty could help countries set reduction targets and track their progress towards meeting those targets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here, another tool we can borrow from climate policy is the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c01038">emissions inventory</a>, which accounts for the total amount of emissions that originates from relevant sources within cities, provinces, states or countries. </p>
<p>Emissions inventories help prioritize the reduction of emissions from the largest sources within a given region and are necessary to accurately check the effectiveness of solutions. Emissions inventories will quantify progress, identify leaders and laggards and document the success of our transition to a circular economy.</p>
<p>For some countries, aid will be necessary to build new infrastructure for reducing plastic pollution. These countries need access to a global fund, similar to the <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/about/governance#:%7E:text=It%20is%20guided%20by%20the,funding%20to%20mitigation%20and%20adaptation.">UNFCCC’s climate fund</a>. To build this fund, an extended producer responsibility program — a materials management program funded by those who make plastics — can be implemented. For example, if a fund pulled in $0.01 for every pound of virgin plastic produced, it would have equated to <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/282732/global-production-of-plastics-since-1950/">$8 billion per year</a> in 2020. </p>
<h2>Let’s get to work</h2>
<p>For plastic pollution, the phrase “there is no time to waste” is not just clever, it is spot on. As we negotiate how we will end plastic pollution, the problem continues to grow. We cannot wait another decade to establish baselines, reduction targets and thresholds for the safety of our environment and human health. </p>
<p>We are optimistic about the recent resolution to draft a global treaty on plastic pollution and thrilled that <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2022/02/canada-supports-a-new-legally-binding-global-agreement-on-plastics-as-un-meeting-kicks-off-in-kenya.html">Canada aims to be a leader</a> in its creation and actions necessary to make positive change.</p>
<p>International governments have provided an opportunity for systemic change, so let us make the most of it and develop a global treaty with quantitative targets and binding resolutions that measurably reduce our production of plastic waste and pollution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A global treaty on plastic pollution must incentivize a take-make-reuse waste management system and include quantitative targets based on geography-specific emissions.Chelsea Rochman, Assistant Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of TorontoXia Zhu, PhD Student, Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1730842021-12-02T14:50:13Z2021-12-02T14:50:13ZCOP26 is over – here’s how the UK can keep up momentum on climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435331/original/file-20211202-19762-1a8qdcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5439%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/glasgow-united-kingdom-november-06-2021-2070571724">Toby Parkes/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Glasgow climate pact is sealed and COP26 is fading into memory. The UK’s presidency of the 26th UN climate change summit yielded mixed results, from the first mention of fossil fuels in a UN climate declaration and an agreement on rules for trading emissions credits internationally, to the blocking of a funding facility which would compensate developing countries for loss and damage caused by climate change.</p>
<p>While delegates have left Glasgow, the UK’s responsibilities as COP president are far from over. Before handing over to Egypt for COP27 in November 2022, a series of high-level decisions are needed to ensure the UK keeps the electric vehicle pedal held firmly to the floor.</p>
<p>I’m a scientist on the Climate Change Committee – independent advisers to the UK government on net zero policy. We advised the UK to bolster its domestic targets and policies for reducing emissions to set an example going into COP26. This included a recommendation in December 2020 to revise the UK’s nationally determined contribution (or NDC) to emissions reductions by 2030.</p>
<p>Now we’ve published <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/cop26-key-outcomes-and-next-steps-for-the-uk/">further advice</a> on what the UK government must do over the coming year to ensure that momentum from COP26 is not lost. This includes working with other nations on a number of fronts from improving flows of financial aid to developing countries, strengthening commitments to cut emissions by 2030 and building international cooperation on compensation for loss and damage.</p>
<h2>Glasgow to Sharm El-Sheikh</h2>
<p>One thing the UK hosts did well at COP26 was to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-cop26-finally-recognised-the-latest-ipcc-climate-science">acknowledge</a> the stark reality of the latest climate science. While COP26 affirmed the importance of keeping the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C alive, current policies mean the world is set to pass it in the next decade, reaching 2.7°C by the end of the century.</p>
<p>To move the dial, the UK must pressure G20 nations to set stronger commitments in 2022 to cut emissions by 2030, and develop policies which could deliver them. The country’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-nationally-determined-contribution-communication-to-the-unfccc">own pledge</a> is to cut emissions by 68% on 1990 levels by 2030. This is already about as ambitious as the Committee on Climate Change thinks it can realistically be while remaining credible. But it can be strengthened in other ways. </p>
<p>For instance, this NDC could be made legally-binding. The government could also rule out meeting its target with the use of offsets, like promises to plant trees elsewhere to compensate for keeping oil and gas fields open. It could count contributions from actually reducing emissions, and removing CO₂ from the atmosphere with trees or carbon capture and storage technology, separately. The NDC could also include targets for individual sectors of the economy, using the government’s own <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/net-zero-strategy">net zero strategy</a>.</p>
<p>Rich countries should look beyond cutting emissions domestically to consider targets for reducing emissions from the goods and services they import. In the UK, these consumption emissions are larger and falling slower than emissions generated domestically. Quantifiable targets for adapting to the effects of climate change within the country would also be useful.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two container ships laden with cargo docked in Southampton port." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435334/original/file-20211202-23-2oqsjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435334/original/file-20211202-23-2oqsjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435334/original/file-20211202-23-2oqsjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435334/original/file-20211202-23-2oqsjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435334/original/file-20211202-23-2oqsjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435334/original/file-20211202-23-2oqsjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435334/original/file-20211202-23-2oqsjt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rich countries like the UK often overlook the carbon cost of their imports.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-colorful-containers-on-cargo-1883371642">Anita van den Broek/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The UK could put half of its climate finance contributions to developing countries towards projects which help countries adapt – something which has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-countries-are-not-spending-nearly-enough-on-adapting-to-climate-change-171422">neglected for too long</a>. Restoring its 0.7% GDP promise on overseas aid would help send the message that the government is serious about meeting its commitments. It can also do this by entering into a serious dialogue on what rich countries can do to support those around the world suffering climate harm today.</p>
<p>The government can also accelerate its own cuts to emissions by phasing out the “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” mentioned in the Glasgow Climate Pact text. By maintaining a low price for carbon in the UK’s emissions trading scheme, the government is effectively subsidising the continued burning of fossil fuels. No fossil fuel subsidy should be considered efficient and therefore worth keeping.</p>
<p>Boris Johnson’s administration could <a href="https://theconversation.com/skills-shortage-could-undo-uk-governments-net-zero-plans-170806">boost skills training</a> and job creation in industries like offshore wind energy and raise awareness of its net zero strategy among the public by describing the changes people will notice in everyday life. </p>
<p>It could also supplement its current plans by helping people make changes to their diets, implementing measures to reduce aviation demand by improving rail travel, for instance, and axing road building projects that are not compatible with net zero emissions. </p>
<p>Independent, evidence-based committees like ours can track the delivery of commitments by governments and report on their policies and progress. We recently launched the International Climate Councils Network to coordinate action worldwide. We hope this can help build strong and enduring international partnerships that tell governments what they need to do and how to do it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173084/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Piers Forster receives funding from UK and EU research councils. He is a member of the UK Climate Change Committee. </span></em></p>Strengthen commitments to reduce emissions by 2030, redouble efforts to raise climate finance and junk fossil fuel subsidies.Piers Forster, Professor of Physical Climate Change; Director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1718042021-11-14T20:42:37Z2021-11-14T20:42:37ZCOP26 deal: how rich countries failed to meet their obligations to the rest of the world<p>COP26, the recently concluded UN climate change conference in Glasgow, marked a critical turning point in global politics. From now on, the issue of climate justice will be unavoidable for rich countries.</p>
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<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>The Glasgow Climate Pact “urges” rich countries like the US (referred to as “developed countries” in the text) to increase funding for poor countries like Bangladesh (“developing countries”) to around US$40 billion (£29.8 billion) annually by 2025, to help them adapt to mounting floods, droughts and other effects of climate change. </p>
<p>This is pretty strong language in UN speak and is welcome support. But the rich world has a history of failing to meet its financial promises. Only <a href="https://theconversation.com/glasgow-cop26-climate-finance-pledges-from-rich-nations-are-inadequate-and-time-is-running-out-169686">80% of the US$100 billion</a> promised annually by 2020 to help developing countries mitigate their emissions and adapt to climate change has been delivered.</p>
<p>The failure to meet the amount developing countries need to adapt to climate change means the world faces a life sentence of escalating climate impacts. Those impacts that we won’t be able to prevent or adapt to are referred to as “<a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/the-big-picture/introduction-to-loss-and-damage">loss and damage</a>” in the lingo of international climate policy and they are already beginning to bite in the most vulnerable countries. The failure of COP26 to <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-glasgow-climate-pact-171799">commit to keeping warming below 1.5°C</a> will mean more such loss and damage in future.</p>
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<img alt="People cross a wooden bridge to escape flood water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431819/original/file-20211114-105969-1qw723t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3228%2C2161&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431819/original/file-20211114-105969-1qw723t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431819/original/file-20211114-105969-1qw723t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431819/original/file-20211114-105969-1qw723t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431819/original/file-20211114-105969-1qw723t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431819/original/file-20211114-105969-1qw723t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431819/original/file-20211114-105969-1qw723t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to increasing storms and floods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dohar-bangladesh-august-5-2016-heavy-464414945">Sohel Parvez Haque/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Some consider work on loss and damage to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-should-pay-for-damage-associated-with-climate-change-and-who-should-be-compensated-84028">a form of compensation</a> for the harm rich countries have indirectly caused poor ones by disproportionately contributing to climate change with their greenhouse gas emissions. Others prefer the term “climate reparations”, and yet others talk about “<a href="https://www.iied.org/new-solidarity-funds-could-ringfence-finance-for-loss-damage">solidarity funds</a>”. </p>
<p>However you describe it, the fine print of the previous UN climate treaty, the 2015 Paris agreement, sought to squash any notion of developed countries being liable. But the outcome of COP26 shows that the issue of who is responsible and who should pay for the consequences of climate change can no longer be ignored. However, even the annual climate funding that has been pledged doesn’t include any money allocated for loss and damage.</p>
<h2>Who should pay?</h2>
<p>The idea of <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article/16/4/111/14859/Framing-Climate-Change-Loss-and-Damage-in-UNFCCC">paying for loss and damage</a> was introduced with the first UN climate treaty negotiations in 1991 as something owed to small island states. But over the years, other groups, including the poorest countries and others across Africa, have begun to champion the issue.</p>
<p>Thanks to major advances in the field of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">attribution science</a>, there is growing understanding of the precise link between human-caused emissions and specific severe weather events. This relationship will intensify with every tonne of emissions, and for many of these climate-consequences, there is no turning back.</p>
<h2>Loss and damage in Glasgow</h2>
<p>Heading into the Glasgow summit, delegates were mindful of the growing adaptation needs of developing countries. Adapting to climate change isn’t straightforward: even the UK, for all its wealth and its relative lack of exposure, <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/independent-assessment-of-uk-climate-risk/">isn’t getting it right</a>.</p>
<p>In the lead up to COP26, all countries were expected to update their climate action plans, known as NDCs. Recent <a href="http://www.climate-loss-damage.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/LD_NDC_PB.pdf">analysis</a> showed an increasing number were talking about loss and damage in their plans. This makes sense: as countries increasingly have to divert resources towards preparing for and responding to disasters like cyclones, or sea-level rise and melting glaciers, there will be less public financing available for them to cut their emissions and contribute to meeting the 1.5°C goal.</p>
<h2>More talk?</h2>
<p>There was important progress in Glasgow. But much of this came from outside the negotiating rooms.</p>
<p>The negotiators working on loss and damage conducted their talks late into the night to flesh out what the <a href="https://unfccc.int/santiago-network">Santiago Network</a> – a new way of offering technical assistance to developing countries – should be doing to support countries in a practical way. But progress was slow and calls to set up a “Glasgow Loss and Damage Facility” which would have provided financial support for vulnerable countries <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-us-block-financial-support-climate-change-cop26/">went unheeded</a>. </p>
<p>Agreed instead was the establishment of a “Glasgow Dialogue” to discuss funding arrangements over the coming years. This could be an important step to real, material support for vulnerable countries. But in some ways, this feels like deja vu. </p>
<p>COP23 in 2017 established a “Suva Expert Dialogue” – a two-day workshop which produced a <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/unfccc-publishes-report-of-the-suva-expert-dialogue-on-loss-and-damage/">technical paper</a> – to explore information on finance for loss and damage. COP24 the following year and COP25 in 2019 pushed for the establishment of an expert group on loss and damage which was finally launched in early 2021. </p>
<p>Progress is incremental, but with all these dialogues it’s no wonder that young protesters decry this “<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/greta-thunberg-cop26-blah-b1957364.html">blah, blah, blah</a>” approach to climate action.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-glasgow-climate-pact-171799">Five things you need to know about the Glasgow Climate Pact</a>
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<p>One surprise in Glasgow was the symbolic and material support for loss and damage which came from those outside the negotiating room. Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, <a href="https://www.gov.scot/news/scotland-to-boost-climate-funding/">promised</a> £2 million of funding to alleviate the impacts of climate change. This was augmented by a US$3 million dollar <a href="https://ciff.org/news/philanthropies-offer-kick-start-funds-for-prospective-glasgow-loss-damage-facility-to-support-vulnerable-countries-suffering-from-climate-change/">pledge</a> from philanthropists. Since then, a Belgian provincial climate minister has also committed €1 million.</p>
<p>This is a drop in the ocean. It nonetheless represents an interesting twist in terms of who is stepping up to take responsibility for the harm that climate change is already causing and looks set to cause in the future.</p>
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<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171804/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Vanhala has received funding from the European Research Council, the Economic and Social Research Council and the British Academy. She has consulted for the Baring Foundation, the Lankelly Chase Foundation, the Legal Education Foundation and the Local Trust. She has also consulted for the Public Law Project, Access Social Care, Impact Social Justice, the Central England Law Centre, Practical Action, Greenpeace International, Independent Age and the Equality and Human Rights Commission. She sits on the Sustainable Future grant-making committee of the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust.</span></em></p>Loss and damage – the three words which define the Glasgow summit’s disappointing outcome.Lisa Vanhala, Professor of Political Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1717992021-11-13T21:05:56Z2021-11-13T21:05:56ZFive things you need to know about the Glasgow Climate Pact<p>The COP26 UN climate talks in Glasgow have finished and the gavel has come down on the Glasgow Climate Pact agreed by all 197 countries.</p>
<p>If the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-paris-climate-deal-52256">2015 Paris Agreement</a> provided the framework for countries to tackle climate change then Glasgow, six years on, was the first major test of this high-water mark of global diplomacy. </p>
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<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-glasgow-climate-pact-171799&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>So what have we learnt from two weeks of leaders’ statements, massive protests and side deals on coal, stopping fossil fuel finance and deforestation, plus the final signed <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_L16_adv.pdf">Glasgow Climate Pact</a>?</p>
<p>From phasing out coal to carbon market loopholes, here is what you need to know:</p>
<h2>1. Progress on cutting emissions, but nowhere near enough</h2>
<p>The Glasgow Climate Pact is incremental progress and not the breakthrough moment needed to curb the worst impacts of climate change. The UK government as host and therefore president of COP26 wanted to “<a href="https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1455568026384863241">keep 1.5°C alive</a>”, the stronger goal of the Paris Agreement. But at best we can say the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is on life support – it has a pulse but it’s nearly dead.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">Paris Agreement</a> says temperatures should be limited to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and countries should “pursue efforts” to limit warming to 1.5°C. Before COP26, the world was <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021">on track for 2.7°C of warming</a>, based on commitments by countries, and expectation of the changes in technology. Announcements at COP26, including new pledges to cut emissions this decade, by some key countries, have reduced this to a <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/">best estimate of 2.4°C</a>. </p>
<p>More countries also announced long-term net zero goals. One of the most important was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-59125143">India’s</a> pledge to reach net zero emissions by 2070. Critically, the country said it would get off to a quick start with a massive expansion of renewable energy in the next ten years so that it accounts for 50% of its total usage, reducing its emissions in 2030 by 1 billion tonnes (from a current total of around 2.5 billion). </p>
<p>Fast-growing <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/493040-cop26-nigeria-will-cut-carbon-emission-to-net-zero-by-2060-buhari-says.html">Nigeria</a> also pledged net zero emissions by 2060. Countries accounting for <a href="https://zerotracker.net/">90% of the world’s GDP</a> have now pledged to go net zero by the middle of this century.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431784/original/file-20211113-61366-1qm1j2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Yellow minibuses on a busy street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431784/original/file-20211113-61366-1qm1j2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431784/original/file-20211113-61366-1qm1j2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431784/original/file-20211113-61366-1qm1j2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431784/original/file-20211113-61366-1qm1j2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431784/original/file-20211113-61366-1qm1j2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431784/original/file-20211113-61366-1qm1j2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431784/original/file-20211113-61366-1qm1j2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Nigeria’s population is expected to overtake China’s this century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Santos Akhilele Aburime / shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>A world warming by 2.4°C is still clearly <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-what-would-the-world-be-like-at-3-c-of-warming-and-how-would-it-be-different-from-1-5-c-171030">very far from 1.5°C</a>. What remains is a near-term emissions gap, as global emissions look likely to flatline this decade rather than showing the sharp cuts necessary to be on the 1.5°C trajectory the pact calls for. There is a gulf between long-term net zero goals and plans to deliver emissions cuts this decade. </p>
<h2>2. The door is ajar for further cuts in the near future</h2>
<p>The final text of the Glasgow Pact notes that the current national climate plans, nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in the jargon, are far from what is needed for 1.5°C. It also requests that countries come back next year with new updated plans. </p>
<p>Under the Paris Agreement, new climate plans are needed every five years, which is why Glasgow, five years after Paris (with a delay due to COVID), was such an important meeting. New climate plans next year, instead of waiting another five years, can keep 1.5°C on life support for another 12 months, and gives campaigners another year to shift government climate policy. It also opens the door to requesting further NDC updates from 2022 onwards to help ratchet up ambition this decade.</p>
<p>The Glasgow Climate Pact also states that the use of unabated coal should be phased down, as should subsidies for fossil fuels. The wording is weaker than the initial proposals, with the final text calling for only a “phase down” and not a “phase out” of coal, due to a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2021/nov/13/cop26-live-third-draft-text-expected-as-climate-talks-go-into-overtime?page=with:block-619012648f08b698cb951163#block-619012648f08b698cb951163">last-second intervention by India</a>, and of “inefficient” subsidies. But this is the first time fossil fuels have been mentioned in a UN climate talks declaration. </p>
<p>In the past, Saudi Arabia and others have stripped out this language. This an important shift, finally acknowledging that use of coal and other fossil fuels need to be rapidly reduced to tackle the climate emergency. The taboo of talking about the end of fossil fuels has been finally broken.</p>
<h2>3. Rich countries continued to ignore their historical responsibility</h2>
<p>Developing countries have been calling for funding to pay for “loss and damage”, such as the costs of the impacts of cyclones and sea level rise. Small island states and climate-vulnerable countries say the historical emissions of the major polluters have caused these impacts and therefore funding is needed. </p>
<p>Developed countries, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-us-block-financial-support-climate-change-cop26/">led by the US and EU</a>, have resisted taking any liability for these loss and damages, and vetoed the creation of a new “Glasgow Loss and Damage Facility”, a way of supporting vulnerable nations, despite it being called for by most countries. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431783/original/file-20211113-60020-8whsew.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart of cumulative historical emissions" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431783/original/file-20211113-60020-8whsew.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431783/original/file-20211113-60020-8whsew.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431783/original/file-20211113-60020-8whsew.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431783/original/file-20211113-60020-8whsew.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431783/original/file-20211113-60020-8whsew.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431783/original/file-20211113-60020-8whsew.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431783/original/file-20211113-60020-8whsew.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The UK has one twentieth the population of India, yet has emitted more carbon from fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change">CarbonBrief</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-deal-how-rich-countries-failed-to-meet-their-obligations-to-the-rest-of-the-world-171804">COP26 deal: how rich countries failed to meet their obligations to the rest of the world</a>
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<h2>4. Loopholes in carbon market rules could undermine progress</h2>
<p>Carbon markets could throw a potential lifeline to the fossil fuel industry, allowing them to claim “carbon offsets” and carry on business as (nearly) usual. A tortuous series of negotiations over article 6 of the Paris Agreement on market and non-market approaches to trading carbon was finally agreed, six years on. The worst and biggest loopholes were closed, but there is still scope for countries and companies to <a href="http://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2021/05/04/carbon-offsetting-british-airways-easyjet-verra/">game the system</a>. </p>
<p>Outside the COP process, we will need much clearer and stricter rules for <a href="https://trove-research.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Trove-Research-Carbon-Credit-Demand-Supply-and-Prices-1-June-2021.pdf">company carbon offsets</a>. Otherwise expect a series of exposé from non-governmental organisatios and the media into carbon offsetting under this new regime, when new attempts will emerge to try and close these remaining loopholes.</p>
<h2>5. Thank climate activists for the progress – their next moves will be decisive</h2>
<p>It is clear that powerful countries are moving too slowly and they have made a political decision to not support a step change in both greenhouse gas emissions and funding to help income-poor countries to adapt to climate change and leapfrog the fossil fuel age. </p>
<p>But they are being pushed hard by their populations and particularly climate campaigners. Indeed in Glasgow, we saw huge protests with both the youth Fridays for Future march and the Saturday Global Day of Action massively exceeding expected numbers. </p>
<p>This means that next steps of the campaigners and the climate movement matter. In the UK this will be trying to stop the government granting a licence to exploit the new <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57762927">Cambo oil field</a> off the north coast of Scotland. </p>
<p>Expect more action on the financing of fossil fuel projects, as activists try to cut emissions by starving the industry of capital. Without these movements pushing countries and companies, including at COP27 in Egypt, we won’t curb climate change and protect our precious planet.</p>
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<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171799/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Lewis has received funding from Natural Environment Research Council, the Royal Society, the European Union, the Leverhulme Trust, the Centre for International Forestry, National Parks Agency of Gabon, Microsoft Research, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Greenpeace Fund, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation and the Children's Investment Fund.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maslin is a Founding Director of Rezatec Ltd, Co-Director of The London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership, a member of Cheltenham Science Festival Advisory Committee and a member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. He is an unpaid member of the Sopra-Steria CSR Board and Sheep Included Ltd Advisory Board. He has received grant funding in the past from the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC, DFG, Royal Society, DIFD, BEIS, DECC, FCO, Innovate UK, Carbon Trust, UK Space Agency, European Space Agency, Research England, Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust, The Children's Investment Fund Foundation Sprint2020, and British Council. He has received research funding in the past from The Lancet, Laithwaites, Seventh Generation, Channel 4, JLT Re, WWF, Hermes, CAFOD, HP, and Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.</span></em></p>COP26 saw incremental progress but not the breakthrough moment needed.Simon Lewis, Professor of Global Change Science at University of Leeds and, UCLMark Maslin, Professor of Earth System Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1711942021-11-11T22:05:48Z2021-11-11T22:05:48ZCOP26: New Zealand depends on robust new rules for global carbon trading to meets its climate pledge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431467/original/file-20211111-17-1p3uta1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=80%2C74%2C4412%2C2916&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/rafapress</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a> climate summit draws to a close, debate continues on one key issue in particular: a new rule book for global carbon trading to allow countries to purchase emissions reductions from overseas to count towards their own climate action.</p>
<p>The world has generally welcomed headline-grabbing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/07/so-what-has-cop26-achieved-so-far">agreements</a> on halting deforestation and tackling methane and <a href="https://ukcop26.org/end-of-coal-in-sight-at-cop26/">coal</a>. Likewise ambitious commitments from some large polluters, most notably <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/07/so-what-has-cop26-achieved-so-far">India’s pledge</a> to reach net zero carbon by 2070. </p>
<p>But the devil is in the detail and there is serious concern that some of these commitments are only voluntary, while others look unachievable. </p>
<p>Defining the rules for international carbon trading is a contentious agenda item — but one that will partly determine whether countries can meet their pledges and collectively limit global warming to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/05/president-of-paris-summit-says-18c-commitment-is-only-hypothetical">as close to 1.5°C as possible</a>.</p>
<p>The new rules, known as <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-q-and-a-how-article-6-carbon-markets-could-make-or-break-the-paris-agreement">Article 6</a> under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>, will be important for New Zealand. </p>
<p>During COP26, New Zealand announced its new Nationally Determined Contribution (<a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs">NDC</a>) to reduce emissions by <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/climate-change-conference-emissions-to-be-cut-by-50-per-cent-below-2005-levels-by-2030/WRDDTBYBIRDSOTQSDP7UH6KWLI/">50% on 2005 levels by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern described this as “our fair share” and it is indeed a significant step up on New Zealand’s previous pledge to cut emissions by 30%. It leaves the country with 571 Megatons of CO₂-equivalent emissions to “spend” between 2022 and 2030.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-new-zealands-new-climate-pledge-is-a-step-up-but-not-a-fair-share-170932">COP26: New Zealand's new climate pledge is a step up, but not a 'fair share'</a>
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<h2>New rules for global carbon trading</h2>
<p>The New Zealand government stated its “<a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/climate-change-conference-emissions-to-be-cut-by-50-per-cent-below-2005-levels-by-2030/WRDDTBYBIRDSOTQSDP7UH6KWLI/">first priority</a>” was to reduce domestic emissions, but it acknowledged that alone could not meet the country’s new pledge. In fact, two thirds of the promised emissions reductions will have to come through overseas arrangements, especially with nations in the Asia-Pacific region.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-aotearoa/test-summary/">Climate Change Commission</a> has been critical of this approach, describing it as “purchasing offshore mitigation, rather than [doing] what was necessary to achieve actual emissions reductions at source”. </p>
<p>But the approach is allowed under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>, which all states at COP26 have signed up to. </p>
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<p>This would allow one country to buy credits from another country that has exceeded its NDC, or to carry out activities that reduce emissions in another (host) country and count those towards its own NDC. It also supports non-market approaches to climate cooperation between countries around technology transfer, finance and capacity building. </p>
<p>But these provisions have proved contentious, not least because they could result in double counting of emissions reductions, unless clear and robust operational rules are agreed. The COP26 summit has made some progress on this, but many finer details are yet to be resolved.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/big-business-greenwash-or-a-climate-saviour-carbon-offsets-raise-tricky-moral-questions-171295">Big-business greenwash or a climate saviour? Carbon offsets raise tricky moral questions</a>
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<h2>Cutting emissions at home versus elsewhere</h2>
<p>Uncertainty about carbon market rules will be particularly problematic for New Zealand, given its reliance on overseas activities to meet its new NDC. There are also practical questions around how much of these activities will count towards New Zealand’s NDC, and how ready potential partners in the Pacific are for such carbon market trading mechanisms. </p>
<p>Pacific Island nations are not currently trading or part of established carbon markets. They may not be able to develop the necessary technical expertise to ensure fairness, compliance and transparency well in advance of 2030.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-time-for-new-zealand-to-show-regional-leadership-on-climate-change-170785">COP26: time for New Zealand to show regional leadership on climate change</a>
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<p>While there is scope to pursue opportunities to reduce emissions beyond our shores, we should be looking harder at what can be done domestically to help fulfil our NDC in the short time available.</p>
<p>Public <a href="https://consult.environment.govt.nz/climate/emissions-reduction-plan/">consultation</a> on the government’s first <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/emissions-reduction-plan-discussion-document/">emissions reduction plan</a> is currently underway until November 24. A final version is due in May 2022 and is expected to set out strategies for specific sectors (transport, energy and industry, agriculture, waste and forestry) to meet emissions budgets. </p>
<p>It will also include a multi-sector plan to adapt to climate change, and to mitigate the impacts emissions cuts may have on people.</p>
<p>It’s not ideal that a concrete plan for domestic emissions reductions is still six months away. But this does provide opportunity for people and interest groups to help shape priorities and pathways, and to encourage the government to set bolder domestic targets than would otherwise have been likely. </p>
<p>The Climate Change Commission has already produced <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/reducing-emissions/">recommendations for a low-emissions Aotearoa</a>, including the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, reduction in animal stocking rates and changing land use towards forestry and horticulture. </p>
<p>Now is also the time to start building capacity to support Pacific Island nations in designing their carbon market policies. New Zealand has already <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-zealand-increases-climate-aid-contribution">pledged NZ$1.3 billion</a> in funding for climate change aid, about half of which will go to Pacific Island countries. </p>
<p>Allocating some of this to enhancing technical know-how will help create a level playing field in carbon trading. It would ensure that whichever overseas arrangements materialise, these will be fair and deliver an “<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">overall mitigation in global emissions</a>”, as the Paris Agreement requires.</p>
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<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Uncertainty about carbon market rules will be problematic for New Zealand, given its reliance on overseas carbon trading to meet its new climate pledge.Nathan Cooper, Associate Professor of Law, University of WaikatoKemi Hughes, Doctoral Researcher in Climate Change Governance, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1716322021-11-10T19:35:43Z2021-11-10T19:35:43ZCOP26: what the draft agreement says – and why it’s being criticised<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431345/original/file-20211110-21-1muqkzr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">COP26 president Alok Sharma.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/51667837328/in/album-72157720125052264/">UNFCCC / twitter</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Having led the delegates at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow to believe that the first draft of the final agreement would be published at midnight Tuesday, the UK presidency will not have made many friends by delaying it till 6am Wednesday morning. There will have been plenty of negotiators – not to mention journalists – who will have needlessly waited up all night.</p>
<p>In fact, COP26 president Alok Sharma will not have made many friends with the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Overarching_decision_1-CMA-3.pdf">text itself</a> either. As the host and chair of the summit, it is the UK’s responsibility to pull together all the negotiating texts which have been submitted and agreed over the last week into a coherent overall agreement. </p>
<p>But the widespread consensus among delegates I have spoken to is that the draft they have produced is not sufficiently “balanced” between the interests and positions of the various country groupings. And for the chair of such delicate negotiations, that is a dangerous sin. </p>
<p>Let’s recap. This COP (the conference of the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) is the designated moment under the 2015 Paris Agreement when countries must come forward with strengthened commitments to act. There are two main areas for this. One is emissions cuts by 2030, the so-called “nationally determined contributions” or NDCs. The other, for the developed countries, is financial assistance to the least developed nations.</p>
<p>The problem facing the COP is that we know already that, when added together, countries’ emissions targets are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/09/cop26-sets-course-for-disastrous-heating-of-more-than-24c-says-key-report">not nearly enough</a> to keep the world to a maximum warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial times, as the Paris Agreement aims for. And the financial promises don’t even reach the US$100 billion (£74.1 billion) a year that was meant to be achieved in 2020, let alone the much larger sums the most vulnerable countries need. </p>
<p>So what have the poorest countries – and the vociferous civil
society organisations demonstrating in Glasgow – been demanding?</p>
<p>First, that NDCs should be strengthened before the scheduled date of 2025. And second, that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">at least US$500 billion</a> should be provided in climate finance over the five years to 2025, with half of this going to help countries adapt to the climate change they are already experiencing.</p>
<h2>Urging – not requiring</h2>
<p>So what does the UK draft text say? It merely “urges” countries to strengthen their NDCs, proposing a meeting of ministers next year and a leaders’ summit in 2023. But “urges” is UN-speak for: “You may do this if you wish to, but you don’t have to if you don’t.” That is not enough to force countries to get onto a 1.5°C-compatible path. The text must require them to do so. </p>
<p>On finance, the text is even weaker. There is no mention of the US$500 billion demand, although it does call for adaptation funding to be doubled. There is no mention of using the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/08/23/how-the-world-can-make-the-most-of-new-special-drawing-rights">special drawing rights</a> (a kind of global money supply) which the IMF has recently issued for climate-compatible development. And there is insufficient recognition that the most vulnerable countries need much better access to the funds available. </p>
<p>Of course, developing countries do not expect to get all their own way in the negotiations. But commenting on the overall balance of the text between different countries’ positions, one European delegate said to me: “This looks like it could have been written by the Americans.”</p>
<p>It is of course true, as Alok Sharma emphasised in his afternoon press conference, that the text can still be changed. There are several issues on which negotiations are continuing and the text has yet to reflect their progress. Sharma has asked all parties to send in their suggested amendments to the draft and to meet him to discuss their reactions. He will find himself asked for a lot of meetings. </p>
<p>But it matters how this early text is drafted, for two reasons. First, the lack of balance means that it is the least developed countries which will have to do the most work to change it. In Paris the French presidency worked the other way round. They drafted an ambitious text and dared the biggest emitters to oppose it. </p>
<p>Second, the perceived imbalance could affect the trust in the British hosts. Sharma has built himself a strong reputation over the past couple of years preparing for the COP. He will not want to lose that in the crucial last days ahead.</p>
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<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171632/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Jacobs is affiliated with the Economic Change Unit which broadly supports stronger action to tackle climate change</span></em></p>In Paris, the French drafted ambitious texts and dared the biggest emitters to oppose it. In Glasgow, it’s the least developed countries which will have to do the most work.Michael Jacobs, Professorial Fellow, Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute (SPERI), University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1700722021-11-03T18:16:19Z2021-11-03T18:16:19ZClimate change is a justice issue – these 6 charts show why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430507/original/file-20211105-25-1yayo71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7326%2C4902&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">African countries have faced dangerous droughts, storms and heat waves while contributing little to climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-walk-and-cycle-in-the-village-of-malikopo-which-lies-news-photo/605507802?adppopup=true">Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change has hit home around the world in 2021 with <a href="https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-travel-europe-environment-and-nature-climate-change-1681a625675bc3d4c56b3aaefb441ee2">record heat waves</a>, <a href="https://www.undrr.org/gar2021-drought">droughts</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/09/11/1033718496/climate-change-forest-fires-greek-island-evia-greece">wildfires</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">extreme</a> <a href="https://phys.org/news/2021-05-cyclone-looms-india-week-deadly.html">storms</a>. Often, the people suffering most from the effects of climate change are those who have <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/guatemala/central-america-hurricanes-eta-iota-6-months-operation-update-mdr43007">done the least</a> to cause it. </p>
<p>To reduce climate change and protect those who are most vulnerable, it’s important to understand where emissions come from, who climate change is harming and how both of these patterns intersect with other forms of injustice.</p>
<p>I study the justice dilemmas presented by climate change and climate policies, and have been involved in international climate negotiations as an observer since 2009. Here are six charts that help explain the challenges.</p>
<h2>Where emissions come from</h2>
<p>One common way to think about a country’s responsibility for climate change is to look at its greenhouse gas emissions per capita, or per person.</p>
<p>For example, China is currently the single largest greenhouse gas emitter by country. However, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the U.S., Australia and Canada all have more than twice the per capita emissions of China. And they each have more than <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions">100 times the per capita emissions</a> of several countries in Africa.</p>
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<p>These differences are very important from a justice perspective.</p>
<p>The majority of greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data">come from the burning of fossil fuels</a> to power industries, stores, homes and schools and produce goods and services, including food, transportation and infrastructure, to name just a few. </p>
<p>As a country’s emissions get higher, they are less tied to essentials for human well-being. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1470160X20304660">Measures of human well-being</a> increase very rapidly with relatively small increases in emissions, <a href="https://www.datawrapper.de/_/ENr0r/">but then level off</a>. That means high-emitting countries could reduce their emissions significantly without reducing the well-being of their populations, while lower-income, lower-emitting countries cannot.</p>
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<p>Low-income countries <a href="https://climatenexus.org/climate-change-news/common-but-differentiated-responsibilities-and-respective-capabilities-cbdr-rc/">have been arguing for years</a> that, in a context in which global emissions must be dramatically reduced in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">next half-century</a>, it would be unjust to require them to cut essential investments in areas that richer countries already have invested in, such as access to electricity, education and basic health care, while those in richer countries continue to enjoy lifestyles with high consumption of energy and consumer goods. </p>
<h2>Responsibility for decades of emissions</h2>
<p>Looking at current emissions alone misses another important aspect of climate injustice: Greenhouse gas emissions accumulate over time.</p>
<p>Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-handle-on-carbon-dioxide/">hundreds of years</a>, and this accumulation drives climate change. Carbon dioxide <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-handle-on-carbon-dioxide/">traps heat</a>, warming the planet. Some countries and regions bear vastly more responsibility for cumulative emissions than others. </p>
<p>For instance, the United States has emitted over a quarter of all greenhouse gases since the 1750s, while the entire continent of Africa has emitted <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2">only about 3%</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429799/original/file-20211102-17-1mmmn2k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Box chart showing which countries and continents had the most emissions over time" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429799/original/file-20211102-17-1mmmn2k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429799/original/file-20211102-17-1mmmn2k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429799/original/file-20211102-17-1mmmn2k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429799/original/file-20211102-17-1mmmn2k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429799/original/file-20211102-17-1mmmn2k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429799/original/file-20211102-17-1mmmn2k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429799/original/file-20211102-17-1mmmn2k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cumulative emissions, 1751-2017, by country.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2">Hannah Ritchie/Our World in Data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>People today continue to benefit from wealth and infrastructure that was generated with energy linked to these emissions decades ago.</p>
<h2>Emissions differences within countries</h2>
<p>The benefits of fossil fuels have been uneven within countries, as well. </p>
<p>From this perspective, thinking about climate justice requires attention to <a href="https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621052/mb-confronting-carbon-inequality-210920-en.pdf">patterns of wealth</a>. A study by the Stockholm Environment Institute and Oxfam found that 5% of the world’s population was responsible for 36% of the greenhouse gases from 1990-2015. The poorest half of the population was responsible for less than 6%. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bar chart showing emissions by wealth rank, with the top 5% emitting significantly more than any other group." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429791/original/file-20211102-25-1iov0mm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429791/original/file-20211102-25-1iov0mm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429791/original/file-20211102-25-1iov0mm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429791/original/file-20211102-25-1iov0mm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429791/original/file-20211102-25-1iov0mm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429791/original/file-20211102-25-1iov0mm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429791/original/file-20211102-25-1iov0mm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Share of emissions growth by wealth rank.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621052/mb-confronting-carbon-inequality-210920-en.pdf">Stockholm Environment Institute and Oxfam</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These patterns are directly connected to the lack of access to energy by the poorest half of the world’s population and the high consumption of the wealthiest through things like luxury air travel, second homes and personal transportation. They also show how actions by a few high emitters could reduce a region’s climate impact.</p>
<p>Similarly, over one-third of global carbon emissions from fossil fuels and cement over the past half-century can be <a href="https://climateaccountability.org/carbonmajors.html">directly traced to 20 companies</a>, primarily producers of oil and gas. This draws attention to the need to develop policies capable of holding large corporations accountable for their role in climate change. </p>
<p><iframe id="LXkTG" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LXkTG/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Who will be harmed by climate change?</h2>
<p>Understanding where emissions come from is only part of the climate justice dilemma. Poor countries and regions often also face greater risks from climate change.</p>
<p>Some small island countries, such as <a href="https://youtu.be/hR5fYBSh5wQ">Tuvalu</a> and the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/10/29/marshall-islands-new-climate-study-visualizes-confronting-risk-of-projected-sea-level-rise">Marshall Islands</a>, face threats to their very survival as sea levels rise. Parts of <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/climate-change-is-an-increasing-threat-to-africa">sub-Saharan Africa</a>, <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/arctic-assessment-report-shows-faster-rate-of-warming">the Arctic</a> and mountain regions face much more rapid climate change than other parts of the world. In parts of Africa, changes in temperature and precipitation are contributing to <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/climate-change-triggers-mounting-food-insecurity-poverty-and-displacement-africa">food security concerns</a>. </p>
<p>Many of these countries and communities bear little responsibility for the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change. At the same time, they have the fewest resources available to protect themselves.</p>
<p><iframe id="Q3gzB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q3gzB/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Climate impacts – such as droughts, floods or storms – affect people differently <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf">depending on their wealth and access to resources</a> and on their involvement in decision making. Processes that marginalize people, such as racial injustice and colonialism, mean that some people in a country or community are more likely than others to be able to protect themselves from climate harms. </p>
<h2>Strategies for a just climate agreement</h2>
<p>All of these justice issues are central to negotiations at the United Nations’ Glasgow climate conference and beyond. </p>
<p>Many discussions will focus on who should reduce emissions and how poor countries’ reductions should be supported. Investing in renewable energy, for example, can avoid future emissions, but low-income countries need financial help.</p>
<p>Wealthy countries have been slow to meet their commitment to provide <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/100_billion_climate_finance_report.pdf">US$100 billion a year</a> to help developing countries adapt to the changing climate, and the <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/step-climate-change-adaptation-or-face-serious-human-and-economic">costs of adaptation</a> continue to rise. </p>
<p>Some leaders are also asking hard questions about what to do in the face of <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/the-big-picture/introduction-to-loss-and-damage">losses that cannot be undone</a>. How should the global community support people losing their homelands and ways of life?</p>
<p>Some of the most important issues from a justice perspective must be dealt with locally and within countries. Systemic racism cannot be dealt with at the international level. Creating local and national plans for protecting the most vulnerable people, and laws and other tools to hold corporations accountable, will also need to happen within countries. </p>
<p>These discussions will continue long after the Glasgow conference ends. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world’s biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage of COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/cop26">Read more of our U.S.</a> and <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/">global coverage</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170072/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonja Klinsky has received funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the KR Foundation, and through the Fulbright-Nehru program.</span></em></p>Climate justice is about both where emissions come from and who suffers the consequences.Sonja Klinsky, Associate Professor and Senior Global Futures Scientist, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1705452021-11-01T03:23:59Z2021-11-01T03:23:59ZCOP26: a four-minute guide by a climate scientist<p>COP26, which is taking place in Glasgow, is the latest in a series of meetings through which the world’s governments attempt to deal with climate change.</p>
<p>COP stands for “Conference of the Parties”: these 197 parties are the United Nations member countries, plus a few small non-UN member countries and the European Union, all of whom support the Framework Convention on Climate Change. This was set up in 1992 to organise a global response to what most people then called the “greenhouse effect”. It’s COP26 simply because this is the 26th meeting.</p>
<p>The location of COP meetings changes each time. The last meeting was in Madrid in 2019. There was no COP in 2020 due to COVID-19. The most important COP so far was the 2015 meeting in Paris, which <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">agreed to</a> “limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels”.</p>
<p>It’s possible to set a target like this because scientific research has recognised a <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide">close relationship</a> between the amount of carbon dioxide in the global atmosphere and its average temperature.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DUmBfvYOLwg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>In order to achieve the target of “well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C” the Paris Agreement <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">committed to</a> “reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate neutral world by mid-century”.</p>
<p>The main task for COP26 is to follow through on this commitment and produce realistic plans to reduce global carbon emissions to levels that hold 21st-century global warming as close to 1.5°C as possible.</p>
<p>As you can imagine, getting 197 different countries, all with their own circumstances and interests, to agree to such plans isn’t exactly straightforward: after all, it took 23 years to get to the Paris agreement. Most famously, Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement when president, although it returned after Joe Biden’s election. So there is some uncertainty about how successful COP26 will be.</p>
<p>The main method for reducing emissions is the Nationally-Determined Contribution (NDC) of each country: these are individual countries’ climate action plans. For example, the UK’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-nationally-determined-contribution-communication-to-the-unfccc">most recent NDC</a> commits it to reducing emissions by at least 68% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.</p>
<p>The main problem facing COP26 is that the combined NDCs of all the parties aren’t enough to meet the 1.5°C target of the Paris agreement. If you combine all the current plans and promises contained in the NDCs, they would lead to a global temperature increase of 2.4°C by the year 2100 and if you look at actual emissions now, they would lead to a global temperature increase <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/">of 2.9°C</a> by 2100.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429364/original/file-20211029-27-380zgp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing global warming projections with different levels of emissions" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429364/original/file-20211029-27-380zgp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429364/original/file-20211029-27-380zgp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429364/original/file-20211029-27-380zgp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429364/original/file-20211029-27-380zgp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429364/original/file-20211029-27-380zgp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429364/original/file-20211029-27-380zgp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429364/original/file-20211029-27-380zgp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even optimistic net zero targets would still lead to 2°C warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climateactiontracker.org/">Climate Action Tracker</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So there is a need for much-improved NDCs, plus effective ways to ensure that countries actually cut all the emissions they pledged to. One of the most important ways is for wealthy countries to provide <a href="https://theconversation.com/wheres-the-money-climate-fight-podcast-part-1-transcript-169287">financial support</a> to enable less wealthy countries to cut emissions, which was an important part of the Paris Agreement but hasn’t been fully acted on yet.</p>
<h2>Why this matters</h2>
<p>COP26 matters because the window is quickly closing on the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target: if emissions don’t fall very rapidly, very soon, too much carbon will have been added to the atmosphere to keep the temperature from rising higher. Current emissions need to be <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">halved by 2030</a> to have about a 50:50 chance of keeping to 1.5°C. The longer the world delays before cutting emissions, either the harsher the cuts will need to be to meet the target, or the target will be missed altogether.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429361/original/file-20211029-27-1q8unyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman stands in maize field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429361/original/file-20211029-27-1q8unyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429361/original/file-20211029-27-1q8unyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429361/original/file-20211029-27-1q8unyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429361/original/file-20211029-27-1q8unyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429361/original/file-20211029-27-1q8unyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429361/original/file-20211029-27-1q8unyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429361/original/file-20211029-27-1q8unyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate breakdown will make it harder to grow crops in countries that are already hot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">JonathanJonesCreate / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Paris Agreement matters because a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-world-actually-look-like-at-1-5-c-of-warming-68763">1.5°C world</a> is safer than a 2°C world. For example, the proportion of the global population exposed to severe heat at least once every five years is almost three times higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C. The reduction in maize harvests in the tropical regions is over twice as great at 2°C and <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/half-degree-and-world-apart-difference-climate-impacts-between-15c-and-2c-warming">coral reefs would be largely eliminated</a>.</p>
<p>If COP26 isn’t successful, it doesn’t mean that we’re doomed. But it would make it harder to avoid the worst effects of climate change, such as droughts, heatwaves, floods and rising seas. It’s perhaps best to see COP26 as part of the long-term project to keep Earth as safe and habitable as possible for all its people, and the more successful it is, the easier that will be.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Hodgkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If you haven’t been paying attention to the UN climate summit in Glasgow, catch up here.Richard Hodgkins, Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1707852021-10-29T08:18:19Z2021-10-29T08:18:19ZCOP26: time for New Zealand to show regional leadership on climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429287/original/file-20211029-25-1e8qhev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C55%2C3095%2C1986&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the UN climate summit in Glasgow kicks off on Sunday, it marks the deadline for countries to make more ambitious pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>The meeting is the 26th Conference of the Parties (<a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a>) to the <a href="https://unfccc.int/">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> and is being heralded as the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/uk-presidency/what-is-a-cop/">last best chance</a> to avoid devastating temperature rise that would endanger billions of people and disrupt the planet’s life-support systems. </p>
<p>New Zealand will be represented by the climate minister and Green Party co-leader, James Shaw, along with a <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/451996/shaw-says-cop26-conference-most-important-since-paris-agreement">slimmed-down team of diplomats</a>. Shaw, who described climate change as the “most significant threat that we face for decades to come”, will take part in negotiations aimed at achieving <a href="https://ukcop26.org/cop26-goals/">global net zero</a>, protecting communities and natural habitats and mobilising finance to adequately respond to the climate crisis.</p>
<p>This is the time for New Zealand to commit to delivering on its fair share of what is necessary to avoid runaway global warming.</p>
<p>To understand why COP26 is so important we need to look back to a previous summit, COP21 in 2015, which resulted in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>. Countries agreed to work together to keep global warming well below 2°C and to aim for no more than 1.5°C. </p>
<p>They also agreed to publish plans to show how much they would reduce emissions and to update these pledges every five years — which is what should be happening at the Glasgow summit. Collectively, current climate pledges (known as Nationally Determined Contributions or <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs">NDCs</a>) continue to fall a long way short of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>Many countries have <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/">failed to keep pace</a> with what their climate pledges promised. The window to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C is closing fast. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-4-ways-rich-nations-can-keep-promises-to-curb-emissions-and-fund-climate-adaptation-170062">COP26: 4 ways rich nations can keep promises to curb emissions and fund climate adaptation</a>
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<h2>Time to raise climate ambition</h2>
<p>On our current trajectory, global temperature is likely to increase well above the 2°C upper limit of the Paris Agreement, according to a <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021">UN report</a> released last week. </p>
<p>New Zealand has agreed to take ambitious action to meet the 1.5°C target. But its current pledge (to bring emissions to 30% below 2005 levels by 2030) will not achieve this. </p>
<p>If all countries followed New Zealand’s present commitments, global warming would <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/new-zealand/">reach up to 3°C</a>. The government has committed to increase New Zealand’s NDC — after receiving advice from the Climate Change Commission that its current pledge is not consistent with the 1.5°C goal — but has not yet outlined a figure.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-successful-cop26-is-essential-for-earths-future-heres-what-needs-to-go-right-169542">A successful COP26 is essential for Earth's future. Here's what needs to go right</a>
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<p>The effects of the growing climate crisis are already present in our corner of the world. Aotearoa is becoming more familiar with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/a-land-divided-by-extremes-what-the-ipcc-report-says-about-new-zealand-climate-change">weather extremes</a>, flooding and prolonged drought. </p>
<p>Many of our low-lying Pacific island neighbours are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Some are already looking to New Zealand to <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/climate-change-conference-2021-is-nz-doing-enough-to-save-the-pacific/7VNGQ6AFVFRMU6ROSERLIQEXU4/">take stronger regional leadership</a> on climate change. A perception of New Zealand as a potential safe haven and “Pacific lifeboat” reminds us of the coming challenge of climate refugees, should global warming exceed a safe upper limit. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/glasgow-showdown-pacific-islands-demand-global-leaders-bring-action-not-excuses-to-un-summit-169649">Glasgow showdown: Pacific Islands demand global leaders bring action, not excuses, to UN summit</a>
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<h2>More work to do</h2>
<p>New Zealand’s emissions have continued to rise since the Paris summit but our record on climate action has some positives. The <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2019/0061/latest/LMS183736.html">Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act</a>, enacted in 2019, requires greenhouse gas emissions (other than biogenic methane) to reach net zero by 2050. Only a handful of other countries have enshrined such a goal in law. </p>
<p>The act also established the <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/">Climate Change Commission</a>, which has already provided <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-aotearoa/">independent advice</a> to the government on emissions budgets and an emissions reduction plan for 2022-2025. But much more needs to be done, and quickly, if we are to meet our international commitments and fulfil our domestic targets. </p>
<p>Climate Change Commission recommendations around the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, reduction in animal stocking rates and changing land use towards forestry and horticulture provide some key places to focus on. </p>
<p>As COP26 begins, New Zealand should announce a more ambitious climate pledge, one stringent enough to meet the 1.5°C target. Announcing a sufficiently bold NDC at COP26 will provide much-needed leadership and encouragement for other countries to follow suit. </p>
<p>It will also act as a clear signpost for what our domestic emissions policies are aiming for, by when and why. But, no matter what New Zealand’s revised NDC says, much work will remain to ensure we make good on our commitments and give the climate crisis the attention it demands.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170785/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathan Cooper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pacific nations look to New Zealand for climate leadership. It has enshrined carbon neutrality by 2050 and a 1.5°C target in law, but, so far, emissions have continued to rise.Nathan Cooper, Associate Professor of Law, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1694342021-10-20T17:19:04Z2021-10-20T17:19:04ZWhat is COP26? Here’s how global climate negotiations work and what’s expected from the Glasgow summit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427135/original/file-20211019-20-1fljk4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=125%2C88%2C1663%2C1152&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.N. climate summits bring together representatives of almost every country.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/49216979356/in/album-72157711934280806/">UNFCCC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/que-es-la-cop26-explicamos-como-funcionan-las-negociaciones-sobre-cambio-climatico-y-que-se-espera-de-la-cumbre-de-glasgow-170478">Leer en español</a></em></p>
<p>Over two weeks in November, world leaders and national negotiators will meet in Scotland to discuss what to do about climate change. It’s a complex process that can be hard to make sense of from the outside, but it’s how international law and institutions help solve problems that no single country can fix on its own.</p>
<p>I worked for the United Nations for several years as a law and policy adviser and have been involved in international negotiations. Here’s what’s happening behind closed doors and why people are concerned that COP26 might not meet its goals.</p>
<h2>What is COP26?</h2>
<p>In 1992, countries agreed to an international treaty called <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-convention/history-of-the-convention#eq-1">the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> (UNFCCC), which set ground rules and expectations for global cooperation on combating climate change. It was the first time the majority of nations formally recognized the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">need to control greenhouse gas emissions</a>, which cause global warming that drives climate change.</p>
<p>That treaty has since been updated, including in 2015 when nations signed the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a>. That agreement set the goal of limiting global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F), and preferably to 1.5 C (2.7 F), <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">to avoid catastrophic climate change</a>.</p>
<p>COP26 stands for the 26th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC. The “<a href="https://unfccc.int/process/parties-non-party-stakeholders/parties-convention-and-observer-states">parties</a>” are the 196 countries that ratified the treaty plus the European Union. <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">The United Kingdom, partnering with Italy,</a> is hosting COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, from Oct. 31 through Nov. 12, 2021, after a one-year postponement due to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p><iframe id="FAnL5" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FAnL5/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Why are world leaders so focused on climate change?</h2>
<p>The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest report, released in August 2021, warns in its strongest terms yet that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf">human activities have unequivocally</a> warmed the planet, and that climate change is now widespread, rapid and intensifying.</p>
<p>The IPCC’s scientists explain how <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-relentless-seemingly-small-shifts-have-big-consequences-166139">climate change has been fueling</a> extreme <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">weather events and flooding</a>, severe <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-waves-in-a-warming-world-dont-just-break-records-they-shatter-them-164919">heat waves and droughts</a>, loss and <a href="https://theconversation.com/protecting-half-of-the-planet-is-the-best-way-to-fight-climate-change-and-biodiversity-loss-weve-mapped-the-key-places-to-do-it-144908">extinction of species</a>, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-climate-report-profound-changes-are-underway-in-earths-oceans-and-ice-a-lead-author-explains-what-the-warnings-mean-165588">melting of ice sheets and rising of sea levels</a>. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called the report a <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/08/1097362">“code red for humanity.”</a></p>
<p>Enough greenhouse gas emissions are already in the atmosphere, and they stay there long enough, that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#SPM">even under the most ambitious scenario</a> of countries quickly reducing their emissions, the world will experience rising temperatures through at least mid-century.</p>
<p>However, there remains a narrow window of opportunity. If countries can cut global emissions to “<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-companies-pledge-net-zero-emissions-to-fight-climate-change-but-what-does-that-really-mean-166547">net zero</a>” by 2050, that could bring warming back to under 1.5 C in the second half of the 21st century. How to get closer to that course is what leaders and negotiators are discussing.</p>
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<img alt="Guterres standing at a podium with #TimeForAction on the screen behind him" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2048%2C1361&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427131/original/file-20211019-24-p2pqiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called the latest climate science findings a ‘code red for humanity.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/49214530846/in/album-72157711934280806/">UNFCCC</a></span>
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<h2>What happens at COP26?</h2>
<p>During the first days of the conference, around 120 heads of state, like U.S. President Joe Biden, and their representatives will gather to demonstrate their political commitment to slowing climate change.</p>
<p>Once the heads of state depart, country delegations, often led by ministers of environment, engage in days of negotiations, events and exchanges <a href="https://gizmodo.com/your-guide-to-cop26-the-world-s-most-important-climate-1847845039">to adopt their positions, make new pledges and join new initiatives</a>. These interactions are based on months of prior discussions, policy papers and proposals prepared by groups of states, U.N. staff and other experts.</p>
<p>Nongovernmental organizations and business leaders also attend the conference, and <a href="https://www.ed.ac.uk/sustainability/cop26/what-is-cop26">COP26 has a public side</a> with sessions focused on topics such as the impact of climate change on small island states, forests or agriculture, as well as exhibitions and other events.</p>
<p>The meeting ends with an outcome text that all countries agree to. Guterres <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/12/1053561">publicly expressed disappointment</a> with the COP25 outcome, and there are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/27/cop26-climate-talks-will-not-fulfil-aims-of-paris-agreement-key-players-warn">signs of trouble</a> heading into COP26.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Greta Thunberg raises an eyebrow during a session at COP25" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427139/original/file-20211019-16-1v9qz6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Celebrities like youth climate activist Greta Thunberg add public pressure on world leaders.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/49193291713">UNFCCC</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What is COP26 expected to accomplish?</h2>
<p>Countries are required under the Paris Agreement to update their national climate action plans every five years, including at COP26. This year, they’re expected to have ambitious targets through 2030. These are known as <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs">nationally determined contributions, or NDCs</a>.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement requires countries to report their NDCs, but it allows them leeway in determining how they reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The initial <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/which-countries-will-strengthen-their-national-climate-commitments-ndcs-2020">set of emission reduction targets in 2015 </a>was far too weak to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.</p>
<p>One key goal of COP26 is to ratchet up these targets to reach <a href="https://ukcop26.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/COP26-Explained.pdf">net zero carbon emissions</a> by the middle of the century.</p>
<p>Another aim of COP26 is <a href="https://ukcop26.org/cop26-goals/finance/">to increase climate finance</a> to help poorer countries transition to clean energy and adapt to climate change. This is an important issue of justice for many developing countries <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-burden-unfairly-borne-by-worlds-poorest-countries/a-40726908">whose people bear the largest burden</a> from climate change but have contributed least to it. Wealthy countries promised in 2009 to contribute <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1094762">$100 billion a year</a> by 2020 to help developing nations, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/statement-from-oecd-secretary-general-mathias-cormann-on-climate-finance-in-2019.htm">a goal that has not been reached</a>. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-seeks-double-climate-change-aid-developing-nations-biden-2021-09-21/">U.S.</a>, U.K. and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-pledges-extra-4-billion-euros-international-climate-finance-2021-09-15/">EU</a>, among the largest historic greenhouse emitters, are increasing their financial commitments, and banks, businesses, insurers and private investors are being asked to do more.</p>
<p><a href="https://ukcop26.org/cop26-goals/">Other objectives</a> include phasing out coal use and generating solutions that preserve, restore or regenerate natural carbon sinks, such as forests.</p>
<p>Another challenge that has derailed past COPs is agreeing on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/11/what-is-cop26-and-why-does-it-matter-the-complete-guide">implementing a carbon trading system</a> outlined in the Paris Agreement.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man stands in a street market smoking, with cooling towers for a power plant behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427370/original/file-20211019-15-w8tgxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chinese street vendors sell vegetables outside a state-owned coal-fired power plant in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chinese-street-vendors-sell-vegetables-at-a-local-market-news-photo/800065596?adppopup=true">Kevin Frayer/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Are countries on track to meet the international climate goals?</h2>
<p><a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_08_adv_1.pdf">The U.N. warned</a> in September 2021 that countries’ revised targets were too weak and would leave the world on pace to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58600723">warm 2.7 C</a> (4.9 F) by the end of the century. However, governments are also facing another challenge this fall that could affect how they respond: <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-crisis-fossil-fuel-investment-renewables-gas-oil-prices-coal-wind-solar-hydro-power-grid-11634497531">Energy supply shortages</a> have left Europe and China with price spikes for natural gas, coal and oil.</p>
<p><a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=CHN">China</a> – the world’s largest emitter – <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=CHN&prototype=1">submitted an updated NDC</a> on Oct. 28 with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/climate/china-climate-pledge.html">little change</a> from pledges it announced almost a year ago. Major fossil fuel producers such as <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=RUS">Russia</a> and <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=AUS">Australia</a> seem unwilling to strengthen their commitments. <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=SAU">Saudi Arabia</a> strengthened its targets but <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/10/25/saudi-pledges-net-zero-2060-no-oil-exit-plan/">doesn’t count exports of oil and gas</a>, which it says it will continue producing. <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=IND">India</a> – a critical player as the second-largest consumer, producer and importer of coal globally – has also not yet committed.</p>
<p>Other developing nations such as Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa and Mexico are important. So is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/14/amazon-rainforest-will-collapse-if-bolsonaro-remains-president">Brazil, which, under Jair Bolsonaro’s</a> watch, has increased deforestation of the Amazon – the world’s largest rainforest and crucial for biodiversity and removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.</p>
<h2>What happens if COP26 doesn’t meet its goals?</h2>
<p>Many insiders believe that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/27/cop26-climate-talks-will-not-fulfil-aims-of-paris-agreement-key-players-warn">COP26 won’t reach its goal</a> of having strong enough commitments from countries to cut global greenhouse gas emissions 45% by 2030. That means the world won’t be on a smooth course for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 and the goal of keeping warming under 1.5 C.</p>
<p>But organizers maintain that keeping warming under 1.5 C is still possible. Former Secretary of State <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-biden-and-kerry-could-rebuild-americas-global-climate-leadership-150120">John Kerry, who has been leading</a> the U.S. negotiations, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/11/john-kerry-cop26-climate-summit-starting-line-rest-of-decade?utm_term=8901953fa850909d49e2c2322006a128&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUS&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTUS_email">remains hopeful</a> that enough countries will create momentum for others to strengthen their reduction targets by 2025.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Line chart showing pledges and current policies far from a trajectory that could meet the 1.5C goal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427137/original/file-20211019-27-15b72pt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The world is not on track to meet the Paris goals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/">Climate Action Tracker</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The cost of failure is astronomical. Studies have shown that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius</a> can mean the submersion of small island states, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-reefs-are-dying-as-climate-change-decimates-ocean-ecosystems-vital-to-fish-and-humans-164743">death of coral reefs</a>, extreme heat waves, flooding and wildfires, and pervasive crop failure.</p>
<p>That translates into many premature deaths, more mass migration, major economic losses, large swaths of unlivable land and violent conflict over resources and food – what the U.N. secretary-general has called <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/node/259808">“a hellish future.”</a></p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p>
<p><em>This article was updated Oct. 29, 2021, with China and Saudi Arabia submitting their NDCs.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shelley Inglis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A former UN adviser explains what happens at climate summits like COP26 and why people fear this one won’t meet its goals.Shelley Inglis, Executive Director, University of Dayton Human Rights Center, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1665392021-10-12T12:08:08Z2021-10-12T12:08:08ZHow the climate crisis is transforming the meaning of ‘sustainability’ in business<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425776/original/file-20211011-15-uby0hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=443%2C84%2C1645%2C1048&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Businesses tend to value profit over people and planet. Climate change is forcing them to evolve.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/business-profit-and-human-rights-royalty-free-illustration/1189915921">elenabs via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In his <a href="https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-ceo-letter">2021 letter to CEOs</a>, Larry Fink, the CEO and chairman of BlackRock, the world’s largest investment manager, wrote: “No issue ranks higher than climate change on our clients’ lists of priorities.”</p>
<p>His comment reflected a growing unease with how the climate crisis is already disrupting businesses.</p>
<p>Companies’ concerns about climate change have typically been focused on their <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/risk/articles/2021-climate-check-business-views-on-environmental-sustainability.html">operational, financial and reputational risks</a>, the latter associated with the <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/2021-deloitte-global-millennial-survey-report.pdf">growing importance of the issue among young people</a>. Now, climate change is calling into question the traditional paradigm of corporate sustainability and how companies address their impacts on society and the planet overall.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sS3D_o0AAAAJ&hl=en">professor working in strategic design, innovation, business models and sustainability</a>, I’ve been tracking how climate change is transforming the meaning of “sustainability” in business, and I’m starting to see early signs of change.</p>
<h2>The sustainability gap</h2>
<p>Over the past few decades, many companies came to embrace sustainability. It became the corporate norm to seek ways to reduce a company’s negative impacts on society and the planet and operate more responsibly.</p>
<p>Sustainability reporting is probably the clearest evidence of this trend. In 2020, 96% of the world’s largest companies by revenue, known as the G250, <a href="https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2020/12/the-time-has-come-kpmg-survey-of-sustainability-reporting-2020.pdf">released details about their sustainability efforts</a>. But that rise in sustainability reporting <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/05/overselling-sustainability-reporting">was not accompanied by actual improvement</a> in key environmental and social issues. Global greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.co2.earth/">continued to grow</a>, as did the <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-compensation-surged-14-in-2019-to-21-3-million-ceos-now-earn-320-times-as-much-as-a-typical-worker/">pay gap between CEOs and employees</a>, for example.</p>
<p>As I suggest in my 2021 book, “<a href="https://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9783030773175">Rethinking Corporate Sustainability in the Era of Climate Crisis – A Strategic Design Approach</a>,” this gap between companies’ growing attention to sustainability and the minimal change produced is driven by their approach, which I call “sustainability-as-usual.” </p>
<p>Sustainability-as-usual is the slow and voluntary adoption of sustainability in business, where companies commit to changes they feel comfortable making. It’s not necessarily the same as <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">what science shows is needed</a> to slow climate change, or what the <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">United Nations recommends</a> for an equitable society. Businesses’ response to both will be drawing global attention in November when world leaders gather for the annual <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-cop26-heres-how-global-climate-negotiations-work-and-whats-expected-from-the-glasgow-summit-169434">U.N. climate conference</a>. </p>
<h2>The problem with sustainability-as-usual</h2>
<p>Companies have taken this incremental approach because while they have paid more attention to social and environmental issues, their <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3899421">first priority has remained maximizing profit for their shareholders</a>.</p>
<p>Take, for example, companies’ focus on improving <a href="https://news.pg.com/news-releases/news-details/2020/Crest-Oral-B-and-Blend-a-med-Announce-the-Launch-of-Their-First-Ever-Recyclable-HDPE-Toothpaste-Tubes-in-North-America-and-Europe/default.aspx">the recyclability of single-use products</a> instead of considering new business models that could have <a href="https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/downloads/pbl-2016-circular-economy-measuring-innovation-in-product-chains-2544.pdf">greater positive impact</a>, such as shifting to <a href="https://zerowasteeurope.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/zwe_reloop_report_reusable-vs-single-use-packaging-a-review-of-environmental-impact_en.pdf.pdf_v2.pdf">reusable packaging</a> or eliminating it altogether.</p>
<p>One notable example is <a href="https://ir.kraftheinzcompany.com/news-releases/news-release-details/heinz-tomato-ketchup-introduces-first-100-recyclable-cap">Heinz</a>. The ketchup maker announced a cap for its ketchup bottle that is 100% recyclable. It was the outcome of $1.2 million invested and 185,000 hours of work over eight years, according to the company.</p>
<h2>Climate change requires a new approach</h2>
<p>While companies appear to grasp the magnitude of the climate crisis, they have been trying to address it mainly in a sustainability-as-usual fashion – one ketchup bottle cap at a time.</p>
<p>Consider emissions reductions. Companies have been slow to commit to reducing their emissions to zero no later than mid-century, a target that the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> considers necessary to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius – roughly 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit – and avoid the worst effects of climate change. Only <a href="https://racetozero.unfccc.int/15-sectors-of-global-economy-shift-the-dial-on-climate/">about one-fifth</a> of the major companies have 2030 goals that are in line with reaching net-zero goals by 2050 at the latest.</p>
<p>The companies that do set <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-corporate-climate-pledges-of-net-zero-emissions-should-trigger-a-healthy-dose-of-skepticism-156386">net-zero targets</a> often do so in ways that <a href="https://ca1-eci.edcdn.com/reports/ECIU-Oxford_Taking_Stock.pdf">lack the necessary robustness</a> and allow them to <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/05/18/shells-net-zero-plan-will-judged-science-not-spin/">continue emitting greenhouse gases</a>, as <a href="https://www.corporateaccountability.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/The-Big-Con_EN.pdf">recent reports</a> point out. One concern, for example, is their <a href="https://globalecoguy.org/the-world-needs-better-climate-pledges-4c3d969790d3">dependence on carbon offsets</a>, which allow them to pay for potential carbon reductions elsewhere without making any real changes in their own value chain. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-corporate-climate-pledges-of-net-zero-emissions-should-trigger-a-healthy-dose-of-skepticism-156386">Why corporate climate pledges of ‘net-zero’ emissions should trigger a healthy dose of skepticism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How to transform business sustainability</h2>
<p>Companies have tried to rebrand their efforts in ways that sound more sophisticated, moving from terms like “corporate social responsibility (CSR)” to “environmental, social and governance (ESG),” “purposeful companies” and “carbon-neutral products.” </p>
<p>But when companies don’t put actions with their words, they increasingly meet resistance from <a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/many-banks-committing-climate-goals-are-engaging-greenwashing-banking-on-climate-chaos">activists</a>, <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/05/18/shells-net-zero-plan-will-judged-science-not-spin/">investors</a> and <a href="https://gizmodo.com/netherlands-officials-tell-shell-to-stop-its-ads-greenw-1847613583">governmental</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-01/regulatory-scrutiny-of-esg-greenwashing-is-intensifying">regulatory</a> bodies. One example is <a href="https://popular.info/p/six-corporations-that-talk-green">the growing scrutiny of companies</a> that promote themselves as climate leaders but at the same time donate money to politicians opposing climate policies. Public relations and advertising employees called out their own industry in <a href="https://cleancreatives.org/learn">a report exposing 90 agencies working with fossil fuel companies</a>.</p>
<p>Business is at a strategic inflection point, which <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/72469/only-the-paranoid-survive-by-andrew-grove/">Andy Grove</a>, the former CEO of computer chip-maker Intel, described as “a time in the life of a business when its fundamentals are about to change.” </p>
<p>This transformation could evolve in different ways, but as I suggest in my book, fighting climate change effectively requires a new mindset that shifts the relationships between profit maximization and sustainability to prioritize sustainability over profit. </p>
<h2>Early signs of evolution</h2>
<p>There are early signs of evolution, both within companies and from the forces that shape the environment in which companies operate.</p>
<p>One example is how other industries are reassessing their relationship with fossil fuel companies. Some newspapers, including The Guardian, have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jan/29/guardian-to-ban-advertising-from-fossil-fuel-firms-climate-crisis">banned advertising from fossil fuel companies</a>. A growing number of <a href="https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20210312/NEWS06/912340421/Zurich-Insurance-stops-insuring-thermal-coal">insurance companies</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/bank-china-stop-financing-new-coal-mining-power-projects-overseas-q4-2021-09-24/">banks</a> have stopped financing coal projects. The French bank Crédit Mutuel said it saw the impact of climate change on its customers and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/22/which-banks-are-increasing-decreasing-fossil-fuel-financing-.html">was willing to lose money “in the short term”</a> to respond to the risk. </p>
<p>Another example is changes in companies’ relationships with suppliers – for example, the business software company Salesforce added <a href="https://www.salesforce.com/content/dam/web/en_us/www/documents/legal/sustainability-exhibit.pdf">a sustainability clause</a> to its contracts requiring suppliers to set carbon reduction goals. </p>
<p>And investors are moving for the first time from just <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/investors-high-impact-companies-set-your-science-based-climate-goals">urging companies to take bolder action on climate change</a> to using sticks. Fidelity announced that it would <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bef5cf2f-cee3-4380-b14c-47a06a621b6e">vote against corporate directors</a> whose companies don’t disclose their emissions or have a policy on climate change.</p>
<p>Add to these bright spots changes in regulation and policy worldwide that aim to put in place <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3vavw/half-the-country-is-now-considering-right-to-repair-laws">key sustainability principles</a> and push to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/europe-business-government-and-politics-climate-environment-and-nature-3df2a86ea7491cf2fdff98960cf30bb3">cut emissions at a faster pace</a>, plus the changing expectations of young job seekers when it comes to environmental and social issues, such as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/18/millennial-genz-workplace-diversity-equity-inclusion/">inclusion and diversity</a>, and you can start to see how the end of sustainability-as-usual may be closer than many people think. Due to climate change, the question is more “when” than “if” it will happen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166539/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raz Godelnik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Publicly, companies have been paying more attention to social and environmental issues, but their priority remains profit. Climate change is forcing an evolution, a business strategy expert writes.Raz Godelnik, Assistant Professor of Strategic Design & Management, The New SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1675092021-10-06T10:59:39Z2021-10-06T10:59:39ZCOP26: what’s the point of this year’s UN climate summit in Glasgow?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424238/original/file-20211001-16-19aupn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5184%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/july-19-2020-brazil-this-photo-1779569675">Rafapress/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>About <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/which-leaders-will-attend-cop26-full-list-of-country-heads-visiting-glasgow-for-climate-change-summit-3392176">25,000 people</a> are expected to travel to Glasgow this autumn for the annual meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). </p>
<p>This will be the 26th Conference of the Parties, also known as COP26, and all 197 states which are parties to the UNFCCC are supposed to be represented. As hosts of COP26, <a href="https://ukcop26.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/COP26-Explained.pdf">the UK</a> has called for attendees to submit more ambitious emissions reductions targets for 2030 that will help the world reach net zero by mid-century, to raise contributions to climate adaptation and mitigation funds and to finalise the rules which would govern the implementation of the Paris climate agreement made in 2015.</p>
<p>This round of the UN climate talks was originally supposed to take place in 2020, but it was <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop26-postponed">postponed</a> because of the pandemic. Around the main talks, from October 31 to November 12 2021, Scotland’s largest city will host a series of meetings and events between world leaders, scientists and civil society groups.</p>
<p>In a year plagued by catastrophic floods, wildfires and heatwaves, the need to act on climate change has never been more urgent. So what will the negotiators in Glasgow be debating?</p>
<h2>Up for discussion</h2>
<p>Many of the issues on the table have been left unresolved since the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement/key-aspects-of-the-paris-agreement">landmark Paris Agreement</a> was concluded. This committed most of the world’s countries to try and limit global warming to well below 2°C, and to aim for 1.5°C.</p>
<p>A persistent source of disagreement concerns how international carbon markets should work – Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. These markets would allow countries to receive credits for reducing emissions in excess of their targets, which could then be sold to countries struggling to meet their own commitments. </p>
<p>Implementing carbon markets is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-q-and-a-how-article-6-carbon-markets-could-make-or-break-the-paris-agreement">very difficult</a>. Developing countries worry that these markets will allow rich countries to avoid painful emissions reductions at home while making marginal contributions to abate emissions abroad through buying credits. Rich countries argue that developing countries could use the same emission cuts they sell as credits towards their own domestic reduction targets, effectively counting them twice. </p>
<p>Carrying over old credits accumulated under the previous system of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol might also allow emerging economies such as Brazil and India, and carbon-intensive economies such as Australia and Russia, to meet future reduction targets without much additional effort. This clashes with the spirit of the Paris Agreement to increase ambition over time. </p>
<p>Difficult negotiations are also expected over how to support poorer countries to develop sustainably. The Paris Agreement recognised the existential threats to climate-vulnerable countries from mounting floods and droughts. <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-is-climate-change-loss-and-damage/">Loss and damage provisions</a> in Article 8 of the Paris Agreement promise poorer countries technical and financial assistance, yet how to put these into practice remains unclear.</p>
<p>Another contentious issue will be the delivery of <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/100_billion_climate_finance_report.pdf">US$100 billion (£74 billion) annually</a> in climate finance. Developing countries need this money to kickstart a green transition, but rich countries have consistently <a href="https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/statement-from-oecd-secretary-general-mathias-cormann-on-climate-finance-in-2019.htm">failed</a> to provide it at the level agreed in 2010. While President Biden’s recent announcement to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-seeks-double-climate-change-aid-developing-nations-biden-2021-09-21/">double US contributions</a> might mobilise other major economies, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/20/rich-countries-not-providing-poor-with-pledged-climate-finance-analysis-says">substantial shortfall</a> will remain.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man wades through a flooded street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424240/original/file-20211001-23-20542.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Poor countries need financial aid to cope with the effects of climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/man-walks-through-flash-flood-wawa-1717915627">Oluwafemi Dawodu/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Spanners in the works</h2>
<p>The list of issues before climate diplomats at COP26 is long, and the stakes are high. But the biggest complications might arise from the context in which the negotiations are taking place. </p>
<p>A lack of vaccines and high travel costs threaten the prospect of an inclusive event in Glasgow. Delegations from poor countries have warned that these issues make it <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/cop26-glasgow-climate-talks-poor-countries-difficult-access/">difficult to travel</a> to the climate talks. </p>
<p>Poor attendance is not guaranteed to derail talks, as several details can be ironed out remotely. But it’s disproportionately attendees from poorer countries who will struggle to access the event, potentially resulting in lower scrutiny of the summit’s outcomes.</p>
<p>COP26 also comes at a time when international relations are strained. The fallout from Brexit continues to poison the atmosphere between the UK and the EU. The US and China, accounting for more than <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions#co2-emissions-by-region">40% of global emissions</a>, are embroiled in a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-25/u-s-china-sea-war-could-spread-to-japan-australia-india">standoff</a> in the South China Sea. The recently negotiated AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US, which seeks to counterbalance Chinese power in the Asia-Pacific region and has angered the French, could also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/16/aukus-pact-dash-hopes-china-emissions-deal-cop26-climate">dash hopes</a> of cooperation at COP26.</p>
<p>Perhaps the biggest obstacle to progress lies not in Glasgow, but in each nation’s capitals. Each country is fighting a domestic battle that will determine the international credibility of COP26. </p>
<p>National withdrawal from the UNFCCC has happened before. Canada’s 2011 exit from the Kyoto Protocol and the US’s temporary 2017 departure from the Paris Agreement had domestic causes, and domestic politics have long been the decisive factor for a country’s climate commitments at COP meetings. </p>
<p>The framework of the Paris Agreement recognises this by allowing governments to make climate pledges that can vary from country to country, as long as national climate action <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-ratchet-mechanism-within-the-paris-climate-deal">increases in ambition</a> over time. But a 2020 <a href="https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020">UN report</a> found that current government pledges put the world on track for 3°C of warming. Ambition is nowhere near where it needs to be.</p>
<p>Yet, there is hope. While many government proposals risk being <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1JodDc6wG8">empty words</a>, the latest spike in European gas prices and the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-58709456">recent UK fuel shortages</a> provide incentives for some governments, including the UK as COP host, to fast-track elements of their green growth strategies by electrifying home heating and transport. Similarly, the success of the Green Party in the recent German elections, with 14.8% of votes, sends an important signal of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/28/how-german-coalition-wrangling-could-affect-cop26-mood">public support for climate action</a> in a major economy. </p>
<p>As much as we should pay close attention to the UN climate talks, we should never forget about the importance of national climate policy and the role of voters’ attitudes for shaping leadership <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article/20/4/28/95070/Beliefs-About-Consequences-from-Climate-Action">on the world stage</a>.</p>
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<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Countries are expected to commit to more ambitious targets for 2030, but how they will achieve them is still up for debate.Federica Genovese, Senior Lecturer in Government, University of EssexPatrick Bayer, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1655872021-08-05T12:41:09Z2021-08-05T12:41:09Z234 scientists read 14,000+ research papers to write the IPCC climate report – here’s what you need to know and why it’s a big deal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414699/original/file-20210804-21-7fnllk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4704%2C3063&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With wildfires, droughts and extreme storms in many parts of the world, climate warnings are starting to feel personal.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/firefighter-defends-a-property-from-a-bushfire-at-hillville-news-photo/1181879830">Peter Parks/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hundreds of scientists from around the world just released a new report assessing the state of the global climate. It’s a big deal. The report is used by governments and industries everywhere to understand the threats ahead.</p>
<p>So who are these scientists, and what goes into this important assessment?</p>
<p>Get ready for some acronyms. We’re going to take a closer look at how the IPCC report is made and some of the terms you’re hearing with <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">the report’s release</a> on Aug. 9, 2021.</p>
<h2>What is the IPCC?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a> stands for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It’s the United Nations’ climate-science-focused organization. It’s been around since 1988, and it has 195 member countries.</p>
<p>Every seven years or so, the IPCC releases a report – essentially a “state of the climate” – summarizing the most up-to-date, peer-reviewed research on the science of climate change, its effects and ways to adapt to and mitigate it.</p>
<p>The purpose of these reports is to provide everyone, particularly governing bodies, with the information they need to make important decisions regarding climate change. The IPCC essentially provides governments with a CliffsNotes version of thousands of papers published regarding the science, risks, and social and economic components of climate change.</p>
<p>There are two important things to understand:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>The IPCC reports are nonpartisan. Every IPCC country can nominate scientists to participate in the report-writing process, and there is an intense and transparent review process.</p></li>
<li><p>The IPCC doesn’t tell governments what to do. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Its goal</a> is to provide the latest knowledge on climate change, its future risks and options for reducing the rate of warming.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Why is this report such a big deal?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/">last big IPCC assessment</a> was released in 2013. A lot can change in eight years. </p>
<p>Not only has <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/computers-are-becoming-fa/">computer speed</a> and <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work">climate modeling</a> greatly improved, but each year scientists understand more and more about Earth’s climate system and the ways specific regions and people around the globe are changing and vulnerable to climate change.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-climate-report-profound-changes-are-underway-in-earths-oceans-and-ice-a-lead-author-explains-what-the-warnings-mean-165588">IPCC climate report: Profound changes are underway in Earth's oceans and ice – a lead author explains what the warnings mean</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Where does the research come from?</h2>
<p>The IPCC doesn’t conduct its own climate-science research. Instead, it summarizes everyone else’s. Think: ridiculously impressive research paper.</p>
<p>The upcoming report was authored by <a href="https://archive.ipcc.ch/report/authors/report.authors.php?q=35&p=&p">234 scientists</a> nominated by IPCC member governments around the world. These scientists are leading Earth and climate science experts.</p>
<p>This report – the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">first of four</a> that make up the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report – looks at the physical science behind climate change and its impacts. It alone will contain <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/06/29/wg1-ar6-release-date-and-approval-session-details/">over 14,000 citations</a> to existing research. The scientists looked at all of the climate-science-related research published through Jan. 31, 2021. </p>
<p>These scientists, who are not compensated for their time and effort, volunteered to read those 14,000-plus papers so you don’t have to. Instead, you can read their shorter chapters on the scientific consensus on topics like extreme weather or regional changes in sea-level rise.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of male and female speakers at microphones" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414661/original/file-20210804-21-1rbm1kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414661/original/file-20210804-21-1rbm1kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414661/original/file-20210804-21-1rbm1kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414661/original/file-20210804-21-1rbm1kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414661/original/file-20210804-21-1rbm1kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414661/original/file-20210804-21-1rbm1kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414661/original/file-20210804-21-1rbm1kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee of South Korea, center, speaks during a news conference in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SouthKoreaClimateAmbitiousGoal/12f336d2ec6e44d1827d3cda09c31474/photo">AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The IPCC is also transparent <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/FS_review_process.pdf">about its review process</a>, and that process is extensive. Drafts of the report are shared with other scientists, as well as with governments, for comments. Before publication, the 234 authors will have had to address over 75,000 comments on their work. </p>
<p>Government input to these bigger reports, like the one being released on Aug. 9, 2021, is solely limited to commenting on report drafts. However, governments do have a much stronger say in the shorter summary for policymakers that accompanies these reports, as they have to agree by consensus and typically get into detailed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1600421">negotiations on the wording</a>.</p>
<h2>RCPs, SSPs – what does it all mean?</h2>
<p>One thing just about everyone wants to understand is what the future might look like as the climate changes.</p>
<p>To get a glimpse of that future, scientists run experiments using computer models that simulate Earth’s climate. With these models, scientists can ask: If the globe heats up by a specific amount, what might happen in terms of sea-level rise, droughts and the ice sheets? What if the globe heats up by less than that – or more? What are the outcomes then?</p>
<p>The IPCC uses a set of scenarios to try to understand what the future might look like. This is where some of those acronyms come in.</p>
<p>All climate models work a little differently and create different results. But if 20 different climate models are run using the same assumptions about the amount of warming and produce similar results, people can be fairly confident in the results.</p>
<p>RCPs, or <a href="https://skepticalscience.com/rcp.php">representative concentration pathways</a>, and SSPs, or <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change">shared socioeconomic pathways</a>, are the standardized scenarios that climate modelers use.</p>
<p>Four RCPs were the focus of the future-looking climate modeling studies incorporated into the <a href="https://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/topic_futurechanges.php">2013 report</a>. They ranged from RCP 2.6, where there is a drastic reduction in global fossil fuel emissions and the world only heats up a little, to RCP 8.5, a world in which fossil fuel emissions are unfettered and the world heats up a lot.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Lines showing RCPs on two ends of the range" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414641/original/file-20210804-27-1n6orcv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414641/original/file-20210804-27-1n6orcv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414641/original/file-20210804-27-1n6orcv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414641/original/file-20210804-27-1n6orcv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414641/original/file-20210804-27-1n6orcv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414641/original/file-20210804-27-1n6orcv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414641/original/file-20210804-27-1n6orcv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The IPCC’s Fifth Climate Assessment, in 2013, focused on representative concentration pathways, or RCPs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/topic_futurechanges.php">IPCC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This time around, climate modelers are using <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01125-x">SSPs</a>. Unlike the RCPs, which focus solely on greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, the SSPs consider socioeconomic factors and are concerned with how difficult it will be to adapt to or mitigate climate change, which in turn affects greenhouse gas emissions. <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change">The five SSPs</a> differ in what the world might look like in terms of global demographics, equity, education, access to health, consumption, diet, fossil fuel use and geopolitics. </p>
<h2>Why should you care?</h2>
<p>Look around. Thus far, 2021 has brought deadly extreme weather events around the globe, from extensive wildfires to extreme heat, excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Events like these become more common in a warming world.</p>
<p>“It’s warming. It’s us. We’re sure. It’s bad. But we can fix it.” That’s <a href="https://www.kimnicholas.com/under-the-sky-we-make.html">how sustainability scientist and Lund University Professor Kimberly Nicholas</a> puts it.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">The water cycle is intensifying as the climate warms, IPCC report warns – that means more intense storms and flooding</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Don’t expect an optimistic picture to emerge from the IPCC report. Climate change is a threat-multiplier that compounds other global, national and regional environmental and social issues.</p>
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<img alt="Muddy water water pours past a home where the side has been ripped open revealing the interior of rooms up to the second floor" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414659/original/file-20210804-21-1db6azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414659/original/file-20210804-21-1db6azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414659/original/file-20210804-21-1db6azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414659/original/file-20210804-21-1db6azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414659/original/file-20210804-21-1db6azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414659/original/file-20210804-21-1db6azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414659/original/file-20210804-21-1db6azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More than 200 people died as towns flooded and homes that had stood for centuries washed away in Germany and Belgium in July 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/citizens-are-cleaning-up-their-flooded-houses-on-july-16-news-photo/1329091514">Olivier Matthys/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">read the report</a> and recognize the major sources of greenhouse gases that are driving climate change. Individuals can take steps to reduce their emissions, including driving less, using energy-efficient lightbulbs and rethinking their food choices. But also understand that 20 fossil fuel companies are responsible for about <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/09/revealed-20-firms-third-carbon-emissions">one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions</a>. That requires governments taking action now. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated Aug. 9, 2021, with the report release.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Get our best science stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-best">Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Spera receives funding from NASA and is a member of the Earth Science Women's Network.</span></em></p>These international climate assessments are used by governments worldwide as they weigh future risks and climate policies.Stephanie Spera, Assistant Professor of Geography and the Environment, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1626002021-06-29T04:00:17Z2021-06-29T04:00:17ZClimate explained: how the IPCC reaches scientific consensus on climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408549/original/file-20210627-22-cp7t7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C101%2C3934%2C2556&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to <a href="mailto:climate.change@stuff.co.nz">climate.change@stuff.co.nz</a></em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>When we say there’s a scientific consensus that human-produced greenhouse gases are causing climate change, what does that mean? What is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and what do they do?</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>) provides the world’s most authoritative scientific assessments on climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and risks, and options for cutting emissions and adapting to impacts we can no longer avoid. </p>
<p>The IPCC has already released five assessment reports and is currently completing its Sixth Assessment (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">AR6</a>), with the release of the first part of the report, on the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">physical science of climate change</a>, expected on August 9. </p>
<p>Each assessment cycle brings together scientists from around the world and many disciplines. The current cycle involves 721 scientists from 90 countries, in three working groups covering the physical science basis (WGI), impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (WGII) and mitigation of climate change (WGIII).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group photo showing the diversity of people contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People contributing to IPCC reports come from 90 countries and different backgrounds. This image shows the Working Group II team.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In each assessment round, the IPCC identifies where the scientific community agrees, where there are differences of opinion and where further research is needed. </p>
<p>IPCC reports are timed to inform international policy developments such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="https://unfccc.int/">UNFCCC</a>) (First Assessment, 1990), the Kyoto Protocol (Second Assessment, 1995) and the Paris Agreement (Fifth Assessment, 2013-2014). The first AR6 report (WGI) will be released in August this year, and its approval meeting is set to take place virtually, for the first time in the IPCC’s 30-year history.</p>
<p>This will be followed by WGII and WGIII reports in February and March 2022, and the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">Synthesis Report</a> in September 2022 — in time for the first UNFCCC <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/science/workstreams/global-stocktake">Global Stocktake</a> when countries will review progress towards the goal of the Paris Agreement to keep warming below 2°C.</p>
<p>During the AR6 cycle, the IPCC also published three special reports:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>on <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">global warming of 1.5°C</a> (2018)</p></li>
<li><p>on <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/">oceans and the cryosphere in a changing climate</a> (2019)</p></li>
<li><p>on <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/">climate change and land</a> (2019). </p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph of curent warming across the globe." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The IPCC’s special report on global warming at 1.5 showed present-day warming across the globe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/">IPCC</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>How the IPCC reaches consensus</h2>
<p>IPCC authors come from academia, industry, government and non-governmental organisations. All authors go through a rigorous selection process — they must be leading experts in their fields, with a strong publishing record and international reputation. </p>
<p>Author teams usually meet in person four times throughout the writing cycle. This is essential to enable (sometimes heated) discussion and exchange across cultures to build a truly global perspective. During the AR6 assessment cycle, lead author meetings (LAMs) for Working Group 1 were not disrupted by COVID-19, but the final WGII and WGIII meetings were held remotely, bringing challenges of different time zones, patchy internet access and more difficult communication.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/top-climate-scientist-i-put-myself-through-hell-as-an-ipcc-convening-lead-author-but-it-was-worth-it-121855">Top climate scientist: I put myself through hell as an IPCC convening lead author, but it was worth it</a>
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<p>The IPCC’s reports go through an <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/about/preparingreports/">extensive peer review process</a>. Each chapter undergoes two rounds of scientific review and revision, first by expert reviewers and then by government representatives and experts. </p>
<p>This review process is among the most exhaustive for any scientific document — AR6 WGI alone generated 74,849 review comments from hundreds of reviewers, representing a range of disciplines and scientific perspectives. For comparison, a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal is reviewed by only two or three experts. </p>
<h2>The role of governments</h2>
<p>The term intergovernmental reflects the fact that IPCC reports are created on behalf of the 193 governments in the United Nations. The processes around the review and the agreement of the wording of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) make it difficult for governments to dismiss a report they have helped shape and approved during political negotiations.</p>
<p>Importantly, the involvement of governments happens at the review stage, so they are not able to dictate what goes into the reports. But they participate in the line-by-line review and revision of the SPM at a plenary session where every piece of text must be agreed on, word for word. </p>
<p>Acceptance in this context means that governments agree the documents are a comprehensive and balanced scientific review of the subject matter, not whether they like the content.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-1-5-report-heres-what-the-climate-science-says-104592">IPCC 1.5℃ report: here's what the climate science says</a>
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<p>The role of government delegates in the plenary is to ensure their respective governments are satisfied with the assessment, and that the assessment is policy relevant without being policy prescriptive. Government representatives can try to influence the SPM wording to support their negotiating positions, but the other government representatives and experts in the session ensure the language adheres to the evidence. </p>
<p>Climate deniers claim IPCC reports are politically motivated and one-sided. But given the many stages at which experts from across the political and scientific spectrum are involved, this is difficult to defend. Authors are required to record all scientifically or technically valid perspectives, even if they cannot be reconciled with a consensus view, to represent each aspect of the scientific debate.</p>
<p>The role of the IPCC is pivotal in bringing the international science community together to assess the science, weighing up whether it is good science and should be considered as part of the body of evidence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162600/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Harris is a Lead Author on the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, contributing to WGII. She received funding from the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources to support travel to IPCC Lead Author Meetings</span></em></p>The IPCC’s review process is among the most exhaustive for any scientific process. Each report generates thousands of comments from hundreds of reviewers across a range of scientific perspectives.Rebecca Harris, Senior Lecturer in Climatology, Director, Climate Futures Program, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1581092021-03-30T12:32:28Z2021-03-30T12:32:28ZClimate crisis: keeping hope of 1.5°C limit alive is vital to spurring global action<p>Ever since governments at the 2015 Paris climate summit set 1.5°C as <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">the desired limit</a> for global warming, scientists and journalists alike have regularly asked whether it is achievable. <a href="https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/coming-months-decisive-global-net-zero-race-europe-reacts-un-report-national-climate-plans">The question arose</a> again recently when the UN published a report of national <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/greater-climate-ambition-urged-as-initial-ndc-synthesis-report-is-published">emission-cutting pledges</a> for the next decade. It will be posed regularly before the publication of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report</a> in July – a synthesis of the most recent information scientists can offer on climate change – and the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">UN climate summit</a> in November.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Science</a> is already clear that the 1.5°C target can be met. But science cannot say whether it will be met. The outcome depends on two things we cannot know with precision: how <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/climate-sensitivity-explained">sensitive the climate system is</a> to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and how quickly the world will cut emissions.</p>
<p>Humanity has little sway over climate sensitivity. But on the second issue – what we do about emissions – humanity clearly holds the lever of influence.</p>
<p>The recent UN report showed that governments are not pushing that lever on short-term emissions hard enough. Only 40% of countries have so far set a new emission-cutting target for 2030, as they are due to under the Paris Agreement. Collectively, they are pledging to bring emissions down by 1% below 2010 levels rather than the 45% proposed by the IPCC as being compatible with meeting the 1.5°C limit. </p>
<p>Yet, since autumn 2020, <a href="https://ca1-eci.edcdn.com/reports/ECIU-Oxford_Taking_Stock.pdf">China, the EU, the US, Japan and South Korea</a> have all pledged to reach net zero emissions around mid-century. If they follow through, that would <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/global-update-paris-agreement-turning-point/">halve the gap to the 1.5°C target</a> – and that’s without factoring in the wider effect on global markets, investment and prices that will inevitably follow.</p>
<p>So the future is not set, and much will depend on decisions made in these next few crucial years.</p>
<p>While scientists might be tempted to spend much of 2021 arguing whether the Paris Agreement’s limit is feasible, having this as a live debate could itself lower our chances of delivering the target.</p>
<h2>Consensus and empowerment</h2>
<p>The chances of stopping warming at 1.5°C increase the faster the global community cuts greenhouse gas emissions to zero. And how fast we do that depends on the interrelated actions of a huge mix of people – government ministers most importantly, but also business chiefs, investors, banks, religious leaders, activists and citizens. The last few years have seen efforts accelerate across those constituencies, from the establishment of <a href="https://www.unepfi.org/banking/bankingprinciples/">financial mechanisms by the UN</a> to the <a href="https://fridaysforfuture.org/">Fridays for Future</a> movement.</p>
<p>Across these initiatives, one inescapable fact is how central the 1.5°C target now is. The <a href="https://climateemergencyeu.org/#letter">open letter</a> that Fridays for Future sent to political leaders in 2020 referred to the 1.5°C limit five times, and not at all to the other Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming “well below 2°C”. When deciding their net zero emissions targets, the governments of the <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/2019/05/02/phase-out-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-2050-to-end-uk-contribution-to-global-warming/">UK</a> and <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/climate-change-response-zero-carbon-amendment-bill-summary">New Zealand</a> both explicitly referred to the 1.5°C limit as the global “guardrail” and set their national decarbonisation trajectories accordingly. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/un-secretary-general-making-peace-with-nature-is-the-defining-task-of-the-21st-century">exhorts</a> governments and businesses to meet this goal specifically rather than “well below 2°C.”</p>
<p>So to claim that 1.5°C is out of reach would be to undercut all of those initiatives and many others – to tell them all, from minister to investor to youth activist, that they are doomed to fail.</p>
<p>Social science tells us a lot about the effects of different types of messaging on climate action, including on two issues that are significant here: consensus and empowerment.</p>
<p>From <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1295">climate change</a> to <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-015-2541-4">vaccination</a>, a consensus message from scientists increases public faith and willingness to act. We’re seeing how <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/european-trust-in-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-plunges-survey/a-56946669">mixed messaging damages trust</a> right now with the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine. Would climate contrarians <a href="https://www.therealpress.co.uk/product/denied-by-richard-black-print/">have put so much effort</a> into undermining the perception of consensus among climate scientists were not the perception of consensus important to decarbonisation?</p>
<p>The world stands a better chance of tackling climate change if people feel they have a chance of succeeding. Academic research backs up this common sense. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/discourses-of-climate-delay/7B11B722E3E3454BB6212378E32985A7">A major study</a> in 2020 showed how the “we cannot do it” argument works to delay action, noting that such statements “can result in a paralysing state of shock and resignation”, which is a deterrent to active engagement in solutions. Research also shows that public disengagement is the inevitable result of a perceived <a href="http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/113171/">sense of conflict</a> among scientists. This may be the intent of people wishing to delay climate action, but it’s presumably not an outcome that scientists who support decarbonisation seek.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-denial-hasnt-gone-away-heres-how-to-spot-arguments-for-delaying-climate-action-141991">Climate denial hasn't gone away – here's how to spot arguments for delaying climate action</a>
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<p>The IPCC is perhaps the biggest consensus-forming initiative in the whole of science. Its 2018 Special Report found 1.5°C achievable and, judging from private conversations, this year’s report is unlikely to close the door.</p>
<p>So will our species succeed in limiting global warming to 1.5°C and so stave off some of the more crippling effects of climate change? No one can possibly know. Can we succeed? As former US president Barack Obama once said: “Yes, we can.” And knowing that we can makes it more likely that we will.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158109/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Black is a consultant to the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit – a non-profit think tank.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Happer has received funding from UKERC and the Avatar Alliance Foundation.</span></em></p>Discord and doubt are the last things the world needs at this critical moment.Richard Black, Honorary Research Fellow, Grantham Institute, Imperial College LondonCatherine Happer, Lecturer in Sociology, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1467622020-10-13T03:46:50Z2020-10-13T03:46:50ZClimate explained: does a delay in COP26 climate talks hit our efforts to reduce carbon emissions?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362617/original/file-20201009-23-1wuab5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=164%2C455%2C3629%2C2070&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock,Valentina Petrov </span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to <a href="mailto:climate.change@stuff.co.nz">climate.change@stuff.co.nz</a></em></p>
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<p><strong>Will the delay of the COP26 UN climate negotiations impact international action to decarbonise? Would catch-up talks help? Could the talks collapse because countries stopped paying their dues?</strong></p>
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<p>The 26th Conference of the Parties — better known as <a href="https://www.ukcop26.org">COP26</a> — is the United Nations climate change conference that was scheduled to be held in Glasgow, UK, during the first two weeks of November 2020.</p>
<p>But in April this year the COVID-19 pandemic led to the event being <a href="https://www.ukcop26.org/cop26-postponement/">postponed</a>, then later <a href="https://www.ukcop26.org/new-dates-agreed-for-cop26-united-nations-climate-change-conference/">rescheduled</a> to November 2021.</p>
<p>That’s a 12-month delay on a meeting of representatives from nearly 200 countries, including <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/environment/climate-change/">New Zealand</a>, charged with monitoring and implementing the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="https://unfccc.int">UNFCCC</a>).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-does-building-and-expanding-motorways-really-reduce-congestion-and-emissions-147024">Climate explained: does building and expanding motorways really reduce congestion and emissions?</a>
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<p>It will be crucial to make progress towards the goals of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">2015 Paris Agreement</a>, which aims to limit average global warming to 1.5-2°C this century, relative to the 1890s (the so-called “preindustrial period”). </p>
<h2>Preventing ‘Hothouse Earth’</h2>
<p>The temperature target agreed in Paris was carefully chosen. <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252" title="Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene">Numerous scientific studies</a> show an increase beyond 2°C would activate self-reinforcing feedbacks in the climate system (such as a weakening of ocean and land carbon sinks). This would tip our planet into an extreme “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45084144">Hothouse Earth</a>” that could persist for millennia, regardless of what happens with future emissions. </p>
<p>To avoid this scenario, the legally binding UN agreement encourages all participating nations to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases as soon as possible.</p>
<p>As part of the Paris Agreement, developed countries agreed to provide, from 2020, US$100 billion to support developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the current trajectory of global emissions is on track to increase global average temperatures by <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org">more than 2°C and possibly as much as 4°C</a>, far exceeding the target set in Paris.</p>
<p>One recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15453-z" title="Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era">study</a> put the economic costs of failing to meet the Paris goals up to an eye-watering US$600 trillion by 2100, effectively <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362">keeping the planet in permanent recession</a>. </p>
<p>National representatives are expected to arrive in Glasgow next year with substantially strengthened plans to reduce emissions and meet their commitments to support developing countries.</p>
<h2>The pandemic and emissions</h2>
<p>There is no doubt the gathering of 30,000 delegates in Glasgow will come at a time of ongoing uncertainty about COVID-19 and the largest shock to the global economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The pandemic is a game changer but it’s not yet clear whether this is good or bad for reducing emissions.</p>
<p>Many of us have made substantial cuts to our travel and embraced remote work and online video chat, particularly at the height of the pandemic. Google and Apple data suggest more than half of the world’s population <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0883-0" title="Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19">reduced their travel by more than half in April</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, greenhouse gas emissions have remained stubbornly high. Daily global carbon dioxide emissions <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x" title="Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement">fell by as much as 17% in early April</a>. But as the world’s economy started to recover, emissions bounced back, <a href="https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10361">according to the UN</a>, with 2020 likely experiencing only a 4-7% decline in carbon dioxide relative to 2019.</p>
<p>To meet the Paris target and limit warming to 1.5°C, the world needs to achieve <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cut-global-emissions-by-76-percent-every-year-for-next-decade-to-meet-15degc-paris-target-un-report">cuts of 7.6% year-on-year for the next decade</a>, and effectively reach zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<h2>More work to do</h2>
<p>The sobering reality is nations have a lot more work to do to decarbonise their economies. But for many national governments, the thorny question is how to achieve more ambitious emission targets while at the same time rebuilding economies battered by COVID-19. </p>
<p>Although the UN has a <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/db200402.doc.htm">large financial shortfall</a> of US$711 million (at the end of 2019) due to some nations failing to pay their annual dues — with the US, Brazil and Saudi Arabia the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/ga/contributions/honourroll.shtml">worst offenders</a> — there is no suggestion of cancelling the COP26 meeting next year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/08/26/extra-un-climate-talks-mooted-2021-help-negotiators-catch/">Catch-up talks have indeed been mooted</a> but so far nothing has been publicly announced. That’s not to say there aren’t intensive negotiations and commitments being made in advance of the COP26 meeting in Glasgow. And there are some positive signs. </p>
<h2>A pandemic recovery</h2>
<p>As the world moves towards an economic recovery after the pandemic, some major economies are tilting towards a green stimulus and public commitments to reduce fossil fuel investments.</p>
<p>For example, China is the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/china?country=%7ECHN">world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide</a> and took the opportunity at the UN General Assembly 75th anniversary last month to announce it will reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54256826">carbon neutrality by 2060</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">China just stunned the world with its step-up on climate action – and the implications for Australia may be huge</a>
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<p>Arguably more ambitious is the proposed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/what-is-the-european-green-deal-and-will-it-really-cost-1tn">European Green Deal</a> announced in late 2019. It aims to slash greenhouse gas emissions by half over the next decade and make Europe the first carbon-neutral continent.</p>
<p>To help achieve this, a <a href="https://www.bcg.com/en-au/publications/2020/how-an-eu-carbon-border-tax-could-jolt-world-trade">carbon tax</a> is proposed for imports into the European Union. This threatens to have far-reaching implications for European trading partners such as New Zealand and Australia.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-are-we-doomed-if-we-dont-manage-to-curb-emissions-by-2030-143526">Climate explained: are we doomed if we don't manage to curb emissions by 2030?</a>
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<p>In parallel to these government announcements, industry is also making <a href="https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/11/29/how-to-get-the-carbon-out-of-industry">commitments to decarbonise</a>. The multi-trillion-dollar financial sector is adding pressure by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/14/blackrock-says-climate-crisis-will-now-guide-its-investments">focusing on companies at risk from climate change</a> and identifying so-called “<a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-are-stranded-assets/">stranded assets</a>”. </p>
<p>These pronouncements will help boost the negotiations for more stringent cuts to emissions as delegates prepare for the COP26 meeting in Glasgow next year. This can only put more pressure on all nations to be more ambitious.</p>
<p>Attention will inevitably focus on the world’s largest historic emitter, the US, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/27/us-paris-climate-accord-exit-what-it-means">which is formally leaving</a> the Paris Agreement on November 4 this year, the day after the 2020 presidential election. </p>
<p>So the COP26 won’t collapse, but the year’s delay to the meeting may give the world the breathing space it so desperately needs to realise the ambition of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst of climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Turney is a scientific advisor and owns shares in cleatnech company CarbonScape (<a href="http://www.carbonscape.com">www.carbonscape.com</a>) and receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>The coronavirus pandemic caused the UN’s annual climate conference to be postponed by a year, but it was also responsible for a drop in carbon emissions. Is it enough and will it last?Christian Turney, Professor of Earth Science and Climate Change, Director of Chronos 14Carbon-Cycle Facility, Director of PANGEA Research Centre, and UNSW Node Director of ARC Centre for Excellence in Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.