tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/united-states-265/articlesUnited States – The Conversation2024-03-28T18:54:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2268342024-03-28T18:54:32Z2024-03-28T18:54:32ZAfter the Baltimore bridge collapse, we need clear-eyed assessments of the risks to key infrastructure<p>Catastrophic collapses of major bridges are thankfully rare. Notable examples in the last couple of decades include the failure of the <a href="https://www.dot.state.mn.us/i35wbridge/collapse.html">I35-W in Minneapolis in August 2007</a>, and the collapse of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/genoa-bridge-collapse-maintaining-these-%20structures-is-a-constant-battle-against-traffic-and-decay-101627">Morandi bridge in Genoa 11 years later</a>. When such events do occur, public attention is understandably focused on the nature of the collapse, which can extend over hundreds of metres in seconds, and its underlying causes. </p>
<p>Whether because of an extreme loading event or an accident, these supposedly rare events in the life of a bridge still need to be assessed before they happen, and mitigation measures taken in accordance with all the potential consequences. This type of analysis is known as a “risk-based consequence assessment”. The cost of taking additional measures in the near term can prevent major adverse consequences further down the road.</p>
<p>With many of these structures being over 50 years old, we often hear that a bridge’s condition may have been compromised by deterioration and increased traffic loads – both in the size and frequency of vehicles. Also, older bridges were designed to standards that have been superseded by new knowledge and technology.</p>
<p>While these factors have helped convince some politicians to increase their infrastructure budgets, including through the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-%20releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal</a> in the US, the tendency has been to focus on stronger, more resilient new structures and on higher maintenance for existing structures. The latter makes it easy for politicians to show the money spent has had a positive impact, because it results in an overall reduction in the number of bridges classified as obsolete or deficient.</p>
<p>Given the enormous scale of the bridge maintenance problem – the American Road Transportation Builders Association has estimated that <a href="https://theconversation.com/disasters-like-bridge-collapses-put-%20transportation-agencies-emergency-plans-to-the-test-207779">one in three US bridges needs repair</a> – it makes sense to spread available funding widely. However, this approach can have serious shortcomings if it does not set clear priorities based on the scale of potential consequences from accidents and failures.</p>
<p>One of the two central pylons of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_(Baltimore)">Francis Scott Key bridge</a> in Baltimore was rammed by a 300m-long container ship at around 1.30am on March 24, leading to progressive collapse of the bridge’s entire <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truss_bridge">truss</a> within four seconds. </p>
<p>Although the 47-year-old bridge had been <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/francis-scott-key-bridge-baltimore-condition-container-ship-what-we-know-how-collapse-happened/">found to be in a “fair” condition</a> during its most recent inspection in 2008, and was “fully up to code” according to Maryland’s governor after the collision, experts agreed that a catastrophic collapse <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/francis-scott-key-%20bridge-baltimore-condition-container-ship-what-we-know-how-collapse-happened/">was to be expected</a> given the magnitude of the ship’s impact. Maintenance workers were on the bridge at the time filling potholes, including the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68673146">six people who died</a>.</p>
<h2>Direct and indirect consequences</h2>
<p>Bridge collapses due to vessel collisions have happened before and unfortunately will happen again. In a similar incident in 1980, <a href="https://www.structuremag.org/?p=20417">the Sunshine Skyway bridge in Tampa Bay</a>, also a steel truss structure, was hit by a barge, resulting in 35 casualties due to the collapse of over 400m (1,300ft) of its span. </p>
<p>Around the world, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials has reported 31 major bridge collapses <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2020.102840">due to vessel collisions</a> between 1960 and 2002, resulting in 342 deaths.</p>
<p>The latest, the destruction of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, has cut off one of three transport links across the Patapsco river in the busy Baltimore port area. Given its importance as a transport hub, this will have major economic implications that could have been anticipated. </p>
<p>More than 30,000 vehicles that were using the Key Bridge daily now have to seek alternative routes. Significantly, the other two local crossings are via tunnels, which imposes limits on the type of traffic that can cross the river because the transporting of hazardous materials through tunnels is prohibited.</p>
<p>Shipping traffic into and out of the Baltimore port has been suspended until further notice. Removal of the debris will be a complex operation, and work to ensure all vessel types can navigate the river safely will take time. Further restrictions will then need to be in place when the new bridge is constructed.</p>
<p>There are already signs that supply chains around the world are being affected by the bridge collapse, especially in the car and light truck sector, and in farm and construction machinery. </p>
<p>The economic consequences of this catastrophic event will be substantial at both city and state level. Early estimates on liability insurance payouts suggest the total cost may <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/17cf3f2e-e64d-4666-b1c2-2723347c2ada">exceed US$1.5 billion (£1.2 billion)</a>. </p>
<p>Judging by what has happened after past bridge collapses, there could be negative impacts on jobs and the local economy: about 14,000 people work in the port itself, and another 140,000 are employed in related services. </p>
<p>Above all, six people lost their lives. But the human cost could have been much worse if the incident had taken place during rush hour. Had the impact occurred with a vessel carrying hazardous materials, the environmental costs could have been dramatic as well.</p>
<p>Given what we know from previous incidents about the severity of ship-bridge collisions and major bridge collapses, it was clear this bridge was of critical importance.</p>
<p>A number of mitigation options are available to bridges, including the installation of protection devices around the bridge supports (pylons) in the form of fenders or artificial islands, to deflect a ship or lessen the energy of a collision. </p>
<p>For bridges in general, there are measures that can help on the ship side too, such as requiring the use of tugboats or introducing stricter limits on speeds, depending on the type of cargo and vessel size. It is not clear, however, whether these would have made any difference in the case of the Baltimore bridge collapse.</p>
<p>Above all, by undertaking a risk-based consequence assessment every decade or so, authorities that are responsible for vital infrastructure can help visualise changing risks and prioritise their responses appropriately. In the case of river bridges, ever-increasing ship sizes, speedier turnaround times and higher cargo volumes have all increased the risks – and the costs of a catastrophic collision or collapse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226834/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marios Chryssanthopoulos has received funding from UKRI, Network Rail, Highways Agency and the European Commission.</span></em></p>The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge is already affecting global supply chains.Marios Chryssanthopoulos, Professor of Structural Systems, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2267852024-03-28T10:23:50Z2024-03-28T10:23:50ZBaltimore Key Bridge: how a domino effect brought it down in seconds<p>The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68663071">collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> in Baltimore on 26 March was a shocking and tragic event. Six people remain unaccounted for in the disaster, which saw the world’s third largest continuous truss bridge fall into the Patapsco river.</p>
<p>The cause was Singapore-flagged container ship, the Dali, which veered off course, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/baltimore-bridge-collapse-ship-what-caused-crash-francis-scott-key-dali/">colliding with one of the bridge’s supports</a>, or piers. As the 300 metre-long vessel slammed into the structure, it triggered what’s known as a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123023002177">progressive collapse</a>, where a domino effect leads to the entire structure failing. The bridge, built more than 45 years ago, crashed down into the frigid water at 1:28am eastern standard time (5:28 UTC).</p>
<p>But how could one ship bring down this 366m (1,200 ft) structure within seconds of the collision? </p>
<p>A progressive collapse involves the failure of a single element, like the pier, and results in the sequential failure of other connected components. These can include the metallic truss and the bridge’s deck. This type of collapse can have catastrophic consequences in terms of the risk to human life, as well as to the economy of an area and the local environment. </p>
<p>Although it’s impossible to account for every scenario, bridges can be built with inherent features that enhance their resistance to progressive collapse. Typically, bridges can withstand some degree of damage to a pier or part of the superstructure. The bridge deck can even remain safe for vehicles depending on the circumstances.</p>
<p>However, in the case of the Baltimore bridge collapse, the metallic truss was designed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/2024/03/26/francis-scott-key-bridge-history-baltimore/">as one continuous system</a>. The space between each support, or pier, is known as the truss span. The collapse of one of the piers effectively doubled the truss span to the next support. This dramatic increase in span exerted a much larger force on the remaining truss structure. </p>
<p>While continuous truss systems are favoured because they can redistribute weight in the event of damage, in this case, the remaining truss elements couldn’t withstand all that extra force after the pier failed. </p>
<p>This resulted in the complete collapse of the truss section above the damaged
pier. The collapse didn’t stop there, however. Due to the interconnected nature of the trusses, the remaining section was initially pulled upwards. The sudden release of this tension created a powerful dynamic effect, ultimately causing the entire bridge to collapse.</p>
<h2>Rare event</h2>
<p>It’s certainly not unknown for ships to strike bridge supports. On May 9, 1980, <a href="https://www.fox13news.com/news/sunshine-skyway-bridge-francis-scott-key-baltimore-tampa-st-pete-florida-pinellas-hillsborough-collapse-boat-freighter">a strikingly similar event</a> took place when a freighter <a href="https://eu.jacksonville.com/picture-gallery/news/state/2019/05/08/photos-sunshine-skyway-bridge-disaster/809810007/">collided with a support pier of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge</a> in Tampa Bay, Florida. As a result, the bridge failed over a similar distance as the Baltimore collapse.</p>
<p>But while bridge designers are acutely aware of the potential for collisions, these are – at the same time – rather rare events. The impact forces on a support pier are also highly variable. A higher speed or heavier ship will significantly increase the force on the pier. And higher vessel traffic in the water boosts the probability of a collision.</p>
<p>In addition, the current method used in the US for calculating the collision force of a ship is based on <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.1201/b15621-9/vessel-collision-design-bridges-michael-knott-zolan-prucz">research conducted between 1967 and 1976</a>. However, a different method would have been used for the Key Bridge, which opened in 1977. Needless to say, vessels as heavy and fast as the Dali were not a common sight in 1977. </p>
<p>In fact, the collision force under some scenarios is likely to be <a href="https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/baltimores-366m-span-steel-truss-bridge-collapses-after-being-struck-by-container-ship-26-03-2024/">well beyond the capacity of bridge piers to withstand</a>. This is why bridges have other systems of protection, such as dolphins – a group of pilings situated in the water near a pier, which serve to deflect a vessel or take the energy out of a collision.</p>
<p>There isn’t any information about the system that was installed when the Key Bridge opened in 1977. And some observers have questioned whether the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/26/us/baltimore-key-bridge-structure-support-pier.html">protective barriers around the Baltimore bridge were sufficient</a>.</p>
<p>Regular structural assessments and retrofits are crucial to ensure a bridge meets current safety standards. Concrete and steel, the primary materials in this bridge, are susceptible to deterioration from factors like corrosion and other environmental conditions. </p>
<p>In general, insufficient maintenance or inadequate retrofits can be contributing factors when bridges collapse. However, it must be said there is no evidence this was a factor in this case – and the Key Bridge <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326081517/https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/us/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-tuesday/index.html">was said to be “up to code”</a> when the disaster occurred. </p>
<p>There will be more detail to come on this dramatic and tragic event. And the findings will surely inform future approaches to the design and protection of bridges across busy waterways.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226785/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Mohamed Shaheen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’ll need to learn the lessons from this disaster.Dr Mohamed Shaheen, Lecturer in Structural Engineering, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2265582024-03-27T17:07:01Z2024-03-27T17:07:01ZThe total solar eclipse in North America could help shed light on a persistent puzzle about the Sun<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584141/original/file-20240325-24-ot473c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/totality-during-2023-australian-total-solar-2344355767">aeonWAVE / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/types/#hds-sidebar-nav-1">total solar eclipse</a> takes place on <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/">April 8 across North America</a>. These events occur when the Moon passes between the Sun and Earth, completely blocking the Sun’s face. This plunges observers into a darkness similar to dawn or dusk.</p>
<p>During the upcoming eclipse, the path of totality, where observers experience the darkest part of the Moon’s shadow (the umbra), crosses Mexico, arcing north-east through Texas, the Midwest and briefly entering Canada before ending in Maine.</p>
<p>Total solar eclipses occur roughly <a href="https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/solar-eclipse-guide.html">every 18 months at some location on Earth</a>. The last total solar eclipse that crossed the US took place on August 21 2017. </p>
<p>An international team of scientists, led by Aberystwyth University, will be conducting experiments from <a href="https://www.fox4news.com/news/2024-eclipse-dallas-crowds-traffic">near Dallas</a>, at a location in the path of totality. The team consists of PhD students and researchers from Aberystwyth University, Nasa Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland, and Caltech (California Institute of Technology) in Pasadena. </p>
<p>There is valuable science to be done during eclipses that is comparable to or better than what we can achieve via space-based missions. Our experiments may also shed light on a longstanding puzzle about the outermost part of the Sun’s atmosphere – its corona.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Eclipse shadow" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The path of eclipse totality passes through Mexico, the US and Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5186/">NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Sun’s intense light is blocked by the Moon during a total solar eclipse. This means that we can observe the <a href="https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/corona.shtml">Sun’s faint corona</a> with incredible clarity, from distances very close to the Sun, out to several solar radii. One radius is the distance equivalent to half the Sun’s diameter, about 696,000km (432,000 miles).</p>
<p>Measuring the corona is extremely difficult without an eclipse. It requires a special telescope <a href="https://www.space.com/what-is-a-coronagraph.html">called a coronagraph</a> that is designed to block out direct light from the Sun. This allows fainter light from the corona to be resolved. The clarity of eclipse measurements surpasses even coronagraphs based in space.</p>
<p>We can also observe the corona on a relatively small budget, compared to, for example, spacecraft missions. A persistent puzzle about the corona is the observation <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119815600.ch2">that it is much hotter</a> than the photosphere (the visible surface of the Sun). As we move away from a hot object, the surrounding temperature should decrease, not increase. How the corona is heated to such high temperatures is one question we will investigate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Solar eclipse." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/solar-eclipse-diagram-1146598682">Andramin / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have two main scientific instruments. The first of these is Cip (coronal imaging polarimeter). Cip is also the Welsh word for “glance”, or “quick look”. The instrument takes images of the Sun’s corona with a polariser. </p>
<p>The light we want to measure from the corona is highly polarised, which means it is made up of waves that vibrate in a single geometric plane. A polariser is a filter that lets light with a particular polarisation pass through it, while blocking light with other polarisations. </p>
<p>The Cip images will allow us to measure fundamental properties of the corona, such as its density. It will also shed light on phenomena such as the solar wind. This is a stream of sub-atomic particles in the form of plasma – superheated matter – flowing continuously outward from the Sun. Cip could help us identify sources in the Sun’s atmosphere for certain solar wind streams.</p>
<p>Direct measurements of the magnetic field in the Sun’s atmosphere are difficult. But the eclipse data should allow us to study its fine-scale structure and trace the field’s direction. We’ll be able to see how far magnetic structures called large “closed” magnetic loops extend from the Sun. This in turn will give us information about large-scale magnetic conditions in the corona.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Coronal loops." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coronal loops are found around sunspots and in active regions of the Sun.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/coronal-loops-an-active-region-of-sun/">NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second instrument is Chils (coronal high-resolution line spectrometer). It collects high-resolution spectra, where light is separated into its component colours. Here, we are looking for a particular spectral signature of iron emitted from the corona. </p>
<p>It comprises three spectral lines, where light is emitted or absorbed in a narrow frequency range. These are each generated at a different range of temperatures (in the millions of degrees), so their relative brightness tells us about the coronal temperature in different regions. </p>
<p>Mapping the corona’s temperature informs advanced, computer-based models of its behaviour. These models must include mechanisms for how the coronal plasma is heated to such high temperatures. Such mechanisms might include the conversion of magnetic waves to thermal plasma energy, for example. If we show that some regions are hotter than others, this can be replicated in models. </p>
<p>This year’s eclipse also occurs during a time of heightened solar activity, so we could observe a <a href="https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections">coronal mass ejection (CME)</a>. These are huge clouds of magnetised plasma that are ejected from the Sun’s atmosphere into space. They can affect infrastructure near Earth, causing problems for vital satellites. </p>
<p>Many aspects of CMEs are poorly understood, including their early evolution near the Sun. Spectral information on CMEs will allow us to gain information on their thermodynamics, and their velocity and expansion near the Sun.</p>
<p>Our eclipse instruments have recently been proposed for a space mission called <a href="https://www.surrey.ac.uk/research-projects/feasibility-study-moon-enabled-sun-occultation-mission-mesom">Moon-enabled solar occultation mission (Mesom)</a>. The plan is to orbit the Moon to gain more frequent and extended eclipse observations. It is being planned as a UK Space Agency mission involving several countries, but led by University College London, the University of Surrey and Aberystwyth University.</p>
<p>We will also have an advanced commercial 360-degree camera to collect video of the April 8 eclipse and the observing site. The video is valuable for public outreach events, where we highlight the work we do, and helps to generate public interest in our local star, the Sun.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226558/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huw Morgan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The eclipse will allow scientists to get rare measurements of the Sun’s atmosphere.Huw Morgan, Reader in Physical Sciences, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260272024-03-19T14:04:11Z2024-03-19T14:04:11ZNiger has cut military ties with the US: why this is bad for the Sahel’s security<p>Niger – a landlocked country of 25 million people in one of the most unstable parts of the world – recently <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/17/niger-suspends-military-cooperation-with-us#:%7E:text=Niger%20has%20suspended%20its%20military,security%20interests%20in%20the%20region.">announced</a> it was suspending military cooperation with the United States. </p>
<p>For over a decade, Niger has been <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/07/29/with-niger-coup-the-west-loses-a-crucial-ally-in-the-sahel_6071295_4.html">one of America’s most reliable</a> allies in the Sahel. The Sahel region, which stretches across Africa from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, is one of the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2018.1552452">largest poorly governed regions in the world</a>. Terrorism, banditry, trafficking (humans, arms, drugs), cattle rustling and armed robbery have thrived in the region. </p>
<p>In the last few years, democracy has been threatened in the region. There have been <a href="https://www.gcsp.ch/publications/understanding-crisis-democracy-west-africa-and-sahel">seven coup d’états</a> there since 2020, four of which were successful. The <a href="https://www.iiss.org/sv/publications/strategic-comments/2023/the-coup-in-niger/">coup in Niger</a> in July 2023 was the most recent, following those in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58461971">Guinea</a>, <a href="https://africacenter.org/spotlight/understanding-burkina-faso-latest-coup/">Burkina Faso</a> and <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/mali/mali-un-coup-dans-le-coup">Mali</a>. </p>
<p>The juntas in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso identified three main reasons for military takeover: increasing insecurity, economic stagnation and corruption.</p>
<p>Following the military takeover in Niger, the US did not initially label it a coup. This was in a bid to retain some elements of military cooperation with the country. Designating it a coup would <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-military-mission-niger-focus-after-coup-2023-08-10/">limit the security assistance</a> the US could provide the country. </p>
<p>In October 2023, the US eventually called the event a coup, thereby limiting security cooperation. The US had <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/17/niger-suspends-military-cooperation-with-us">650 military personnel</a> working in Niger as of December 2023. </p>
<p>I have studied the region through a security and political lens for over a decade. Based on the research I have done, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2018.1552452">including a paper written in 2018</a> on the US drone base in Agadez, I believe that Niger’s decision to end military cooperation with the US will have a dramatic impact on security in the region. Some of the consequences could be limited surveillance of insurgent groups, a reduction in intelligence sharing and a possible escalation of attacks by terrorist groups. </p>
<h2>The history</h2>
<p>The first deployment of US troops to Niger was in <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/10/politics/niger-american-troops-presence/index.html">2013 when 100 military personnel</a> were deployed and operated from a military base at Niamey airport which was shared with France. Washington later built one of its <a href="https://theintercept.com/2016/09/29/u-s-military-is-building-a-100-million-drone-base-in-africa/">largest</a> drone bases in Africa in Agadez-Niger. The base enabled it to carry out <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-niger-drone-base/">intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance activities</a>, which covered almost the entire Sahel region. </p>
<p>Since the “Air Base 201” drone base was <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/africa_us-constructed-air-base-niger-begins-operations/6178666.html">commissioned</a> in 2019, it has been a major military asset to the US in the Sahel. Information gathered from the base has been essential in tracking and fighting insurgent groups operating in the region. </p>
<p>In addition to the drone base, the US also supported Niger with military aid before the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-the-coup-in-niger-an-expert-outlines-three-driving-factors-210721">military coup of 2023</a>.</p>
<h2>Why the rupture?</h2>
<p>The first reason for ending military cooperation is the discontinued financial support from the US. </p>
<p>Niger is one of the <a href="https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/niger/">poorest countries</a> in the world and depends on foreign assistance. </p>
<p>Before the military coup in July 2023, the US was a significant contributor of aid to the country. In 2018, the <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-niger/">US committed US$437 million</a> to the country to strengthen Niger’s agricultural and livestock sectors. The US also supported the country’s fight against insurgency before the coup. </p>
<p>The coup dramatically changed the relationship. In October 2023 (three months after the coup), the US cut off more than <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231010-france-turns-a-page-as-troops-begin-leaving-coup-hit-niger">US$500 million</a> in assistance to Niger. This has affected the country’s security funding.</p>
<p>The second reason is that the Niger junta came to the view that the US was no longer willing to work with it. Shortly after the coup, the US drone operations in Niger were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/25/west-africa-sahel-military-junta/">limited</a> to surveillance to protect US assets. The US stopped sharing intelligence with the junta in Niger, putting pressure on the junta to relinquish power.</p>
<p>This has hampered Niger’s counter-terrorism operations because intelligence sharing is essential in tracking and planning attacks against insurgent groups. </p>
<p>Tied to this has been the issue of the drone base. The base is a major source of surveillance and intelligence gathering. There is, however, a <a href="https://www.intellinews.com/us-in-danger-of-losing-control-of-its-extensive-drone-base-in-niger-289069/">10-year usage agreement</a> which expires this year (2024). The junta might think it is the right time to sever the military relationship with the US so as not to renew the usage of the base. It is unclear what will happen to the drone base now that Niger is cutting ties with the US.</p>
<p>The abrupt reduction in military cooperation has frustrated Nigerien authorities who <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20240317-niger-revokes-military-cooperation-with-us">argue</a> that the US is now operating in the country illegally. </p>
<p>The US is now trying to establish new security cooperation agreements and considering countries such as Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Benin for American reconnaissance drones. </p>
<p>In addition, the deepening of ties between Niger and Russia has been a major source of concern to the US. In January 2024, Niger agreed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/niger-and-russia-are-forming-military-ties-3-ways-this-could-upset-old-allies-221696">strengthen</a> military ties with Russia. This has been worrying for the US and its allies. One reason Niger is shifting towards Russia, apart from the cut in funding, is the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/us-threatens-to-pull-all-aid-for-niger-/7203124.html">unwillingness of the US</a> to provide Niger with the required weapons needed to fight insurgency. </p>
<h2>Implications for security</h2>
<p>The Sahel region is a vast area and US surveillance drones have been useful in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2018.1552452">identifying terrorist locations</a>. If the relationship between the US and Niger is permanently severed, surveillance and intelligence gathering will be seriously affected even if the US moves to other countries. This is because Niger is strategically located and the drones flown from the country could cover large parts of the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2018.1552452">Sahel and west Africa</a>.</p>
<p>The fact that there has been an increase in terrorist attacks in <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel">Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso</a> since the coup in Niger in 2023 suggests these fears might be justified.</p>
<p>Terrorist groups could capitalise on the situation and become more daring. Surveillance drones offer a deterrence to terrorist groups. </p>
<p>I think it is in the interest of all the parties to engage in dialogue in a respectful manner. The Niger government accused the US of a “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/16/africa/niger-ends-us-military-agreement-intl-hnk/index.html">condescending attitude</a>” and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20240317-niger-revokes-military-cooperation-with-us">trying to force</a> the junta to pick between the US and Russia. With Russia lurking around the corner, the US needs to change its approach not to lose this strategic partner.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226027/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Niger is cutting military ties with the US. This has implications for security in the Sahel region.Olayinka Ajala, Senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Leeds Beckett UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252122024-03-12T11:38:46Z2024-03-12T11:38:46ZThe ‘Curse of Ham’: how people of faith used a story in Genesis to justify slavery<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580842/original/file-20240310-28-s4o2j8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C4%2C1587%2C1034&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'The Drunkenness of Noah' by Giovanni Bellini.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Drunkenness_of_Noah_bellini.jpg">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>According to a <a href="https://www.churchofengland.org/media/press-releases/church-commissioners-england-warmly-welcomes-oversight-groups-report">report by an independent oversight committee</a> released in March 2024, the Church of England should pay £1bn in reparations – 10 times the previously set amount – to the descendants of slavery.</p>
<p>The report was the start of a “multi-generational response to the appalling evil of transatlantic chattel enslavement”, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/04/church-of-england-told-to-boost-size-of-fund-to-address-legacy-of-slavery">said Justin Welby</a>, the Archbishop of Canterbury and the spiritual leader of the global Anglican Communion of about 85 million Christians.</p>
<p>His words summon the shocking spectacle of the 17th and 18th centuries, when the Church of England owned vast plantations in the Caribbean, chiefly in Barbados, employing thousands of slaves. Slavery was thought to be entirely consistent with the Christian message of bringing the Gospel to the “savages”. The Christian leaders even branded “their” slaves “SPG” – the Society for the Propagation of the Gospel.</p>
<h2>“Cursed be Canaan”</h2>
<p>The Anglican Church is not alone: all mainstream Christian denominations were deeply involved in the slave trade, as were the main branches of Islam.</p>
<p>How could this be possible? How had religions supposedly dedicated to propagating the word of a compassionate and loving God become so intricately involved in this “appalling evil”? The answer is rooted in a grotesque misuse of the very words of the Bible. Of the many ways that Christians have invoked the Bible to justify their actions, none has exceeded in cruelty and wilful ignorance their appropriation of the “Curse of Ham” to justify slavery.</p>
<p>Ham (no relation!) was the youngest son of the Biblical patriarch Noah. When Ham saw his father drunk and naked, Noah felt so humiliated that he put a curse on Ham’s son, Canaan, condemning his descendants to perpetual slavery. Here is the moment, as told in Genesis 9:24-25 (New King James Version):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“So Noah awoke from his wine, and knew what his younger son [Ham] had done unto him. Then he said: ‘Cursed be Canaan. A servant of servants he shall be to his brethren’.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The making of a ‘slave race’</h2>
<p>Since the 15th century, religious leaders have cited the passage as the justification for the enslavement of <em>all</em> African people. For almost 500 years, priests taught their flocks that a Hebrew prophet had condemned millions of Africans to slavery <em>because</em> they were descended from Ham’s son Canaan. The curse of Ham thus formed the core religious justification for the trans-Atlantic slave trade. The curse of Ham entered Islamic thought in the 7th century, as a result of the influence of Christianity, and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Curse-Ham-Slavery-Christianity-Christians/dp/0691123705">medieval Muslim scholars drew on Noah’s curse in their work</a>, as the historian David M. Goldenberg has shown. The Koran, however, makes no mention of the curse and Muhummad’s Farewell Address <a href="https://theconversation.com/islams-anti-racist-message-from-the-7th-century-still-resonates-today-141575">rejects the superiority of white people over black people</a>.</p>
<p>According to this reading of Genesis, God had not only mandated slavery, he had also <em>predestined</em> black people as a “slave race”. In fact, some Christian leaders argued that it was in the Africans’ interests to be enslaved, because their captivity would hasten their conversion, purifying and redeeming their souls in readiness for Judgement Day.</p>
<p>By manacling and herding millions of Africans onto ships bound for the colonies, slave traders and their enabling church leaders and governments had persuaded themselves that they were guiding the “Negroes” out of darkness and into salvation.</p>
<p>The historian Katie Cannon <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20487919">described the process another way</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Drunk with power and driven by grand delusions, government officials and officers of slave-trading companies… succumbed to the lies and manipulations that their soul salvation depended on the ceaseless replication of systemic violence.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The justification for African slavery in America</h2>
<p>The first written use of the Curse of Ham to justify slavery appeared in the 15th century, when <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2953315">Gomes Eanes de Zurara</a>, a Portuguese historian, wrote that the enchained Africans he’d seen were in such a wretched state “because of the curse which, after the Deluge, Noah laid upon [Ham]… that his race should be subject to all the other races of the world”.</p>
<p>In 1627, an English author and defender of the slave trade wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“This curse to be a servant was laid, first upon a disobedient sonne Cham [Ham], and wee see to this day, that the Moores, Chams posteritie, are sold like slaves yet.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the American colonies the Curse of Ham served as <em>the</em> ideological justification for African slavery. The Puritan colonisers of the New World bought slaves in large numbers to turn Providence, Rhode Island, into a Christian “city on a hill”. All were deemed the progeny of Canaan.</p>
<p>The moral obscenity of slavery was the root cause of the American Civil War (1861–1865). Both sides enrolled God’s authority in their cause. In the south this involved a literal reading of the Curse of Ham. Sulphuric southern preachers thundered that Noah’s condemnation of Canaan had condemned all Africans to slavery. An “almost universal opinion in the Christian world” held that “the sufferings and the slavery of the Negro race were the consequence of the curse of Noah”, asserted <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alexander-Crummell">Alexander Crummell</a> (1819–1898), an African-American minister and Cambridge-educated academic, in 1862.</p>
<p>Benjamin M. Palmer (1818–1902), pastor of the First Presbyterian Church in New Orleans and Mississippi’s pre-eminent clergyman during the Civil War, raged in sermon after sermon that Noah’s curse was a prophetic blueprint of the destinies of the “white”, “black” and “red” races. While the white descendants of Shem and Japhet (Noah’s elder sons) would flourish and succeed, Palmer asserted that “[u]pon Ham was pronounced the doom of perpetual servitude…”.</p>
<h2>An important reference in the Civil War</h2>
<p>In the opening months of the Civil War, bigotry and rank superstition blanketed the south with a Biblical defence of slavery. Southern Catholics also eagerly cited the curse as a validation of slavery. On 21 August 1861, Bishop Augustus Marie Martin of Natchitoches, Louisiana, declared in a pastoral letter, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/church-history/article/abs/though-their-skin-remains-brown-i-hope-their-souls-will-soon-be-white-slavery-french-missionaries-and-the-roman-catholic-priesthood-in-the-american-south-178918651/7E167009CBB9C2C2C41BAA756BA9D987">“On the occasion of the war of southern independence”</a>, that slavery was “the manifest will of God”, and that all Catholics must snatch “from the barbarity of their ferocious customs thousands of children of the race of Canaan”, the accursed progeny of Ham.</p>
<p>All this was Biblical balm to slave traders and owners who feared for the salvation of their souls. The religious justification of slavery erased those concerns.</p>
<p>Setting aside the theologians’ misuse of Genesis, even on its own terms the Curse of Ham made a vague and unpersuasive case for slavery. Nowhere in Genesis is there a curse on Africans or black-skinned people.</p>
<p>If slave traders needed an explicit Biblical endorsement of slavery, they might have turned to the New Testament, where we find Saint Peter telling slaves to “be submissive to your masters with all fear, not only to the good and gentle, but also to the harsh”. Or Saint Paul, who urged slaves to “be obedient to those who are your masters according to the flesh, with fear and trembling”.</p>
<h2>Come abolitionism</h2>
<p>Abolitionists were not silent in the face of this grotesque rendering of Christendom’s most sacred text. In a <a href="https://housedivided.dickinson.edu/sites/teagle/texts/frederick-douglass-fifth-of-july-speech-1852/">5 July 1852 speech</a>, Frederick Douglass, the great anti-slavery activist and politician who had himself escaped his “owner”, delivered this response to those who peddled the Curse of Ham from their pulpits:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“[The] church of this country is not only indifferent to the wrongs of the slave, it actually takes sides with the oppressors. It has made itself the bulwark of American slavery, and the shield of American slave-hunters… They have taught that man may, properly, be a slave; that the relation of master and slave is ordained of God…”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And all based on a misinterpretation of Genesis 9:24-25 by the pro-slavery “Divines”, who thus transformed their religion into an engine of tyranny and barbarous cruelty. It was a sham and a lie, and anything but what Christianity was held to stand for.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225212/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Ham ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>For nearly 500 years, priests and imams justified slavery on the basis of a misunderstood passage of the Bible.Paul Ham, Lecturer in narrative history, Sciences Po Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180912024-03-10T13:10:22Z2024-03-10T13:10:22ZThe world is not moving fast enough on climate change — social sciences can help explain why<p>In late 2023 the United States government released <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">its Fifth National Climate Assessment</a> (NCA). The NCA is a semi-regular summation of the impacts of climate change upon the U.S. and the fifth assessment was notable for being the first to include <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/20/">a chapter on social systems and justice</a>. </p>
<p>Built on decades of social science research on climate change, the fifth NCA contends with two truths that are increasingly being reckoned with in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/climate/biden-environmental-justice.html">U.S. popular</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1816020116">academic conversations</a>. </p>
<p>The first is that climate change has the potential to exacerbate health, social and economic outcomes for Black, Indigenous, people of colour (BIPOC) and low-income communities. The second is that social systems and institutions — including governmental, cultural, spiritual and economic structures — are the only places where adaptation and mitigation can occur.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-is-not-just-heat-waves-climate-change-is-also-a-crisis-of-disconnection-210594">It is not just heat waves — climate change is also a crisis of disconnection</a>
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<p>We only have to compare <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-06081-w">mortality rates for the COVID-19 pandemic disaggregated by race, income, and other axes of inequality</a> to recognize that we are not all in the same boat, despite experiencing the same storm. Today, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/sou120">race</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087403253053">income</a> similarly predict who is likely to be displaced permanently after a major hurricane — and forced relocation can have negative impacts on individuals and communities for generations. </p>
<p>Understanding how existing social systems influence, and are influenced by, climate change is key to not only slowing the effects of an increasingly warming Earth, but also ensuring that society’s transition to a new world is a <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-030-89460-3.pdf">just one</a>. </p>
<p>And there is no doubt that we are indeed facing a new world.</p>
<h2>Not moving fast enough</h2>
<p>Decades of scientific research have shown that <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/all-figures">increasingly devastating and rapid climatic changes</a> are ahead of us, including more intense hurricanes, droughts and floods. </p>
<p>Our recent levels of resource consumption — particularly in the Global North and countries with large developing economies — <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262681612/a-climate-of-injustice/">are untenable</a>. To be clear, the world <em>is</em> responding to these risks with the U.S. alone achieving a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/documents/us-ghg-inventory-1990-2019-data-highlights.pdf">13 percent decrease in annual greenhouse gas emissions between 2005 and 2019</a>, but these responses are not good enough.</p>
<p>It is the purview of social scientists — the scientists tasked with studying human society and social relationships in all of their complexity — to ask why.</p>
<p>What is it about the ethics, cultures, economies, and symbols at play in the world that have made it so difficult to turn the tide and make change? Why do we — individuals, societies, cultures, and nations — mostly seem unable to curb emissions at the rates necessary to save ourselves and our planet?</p>
<p>These are questions that can only partially be answered by new information and technologies developed by physical scientists and engineers. We also need an understanding of how humans behave. Having new technology matters for little if you do not also understand how social, economic and political decisions are made — and how certain groups are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1818859116">able to develop habits around lower rates of emissions and consumption</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/telling-stories-of-our-climate-futures-is-essential-to-thinking-through-the-net-zero-choices-of-today-210326">Telling stories of our climate futures is essential to thinking through the net-zero choices of today</a>
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<p>We know that inequitable systems create <a href="http://thinkpunkgirl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Lee_2021.pdf">unevenly distributed risk</a> and capacities to respond. For example, a hurricane’s intensity scale is less predictive of its mortality rates than the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27572097/">socio-economic conditions within the nation where the storm makes landfall</a>. Understanding these dynamics is the only way to respond to climate change in a way that does not entrench deep tendencies towards racist, sexist and classist landscapes of vulnerability. </p>
<h2>Empowering real change</h2>
<p>Recognizing that disasters and climate disruptions have the potential to make inequality worse also means that we have the opportunity to do better. </p>
<p>There are a range of outcomes that may stem from climate related disasters with a vast inventory of what is possible. There are also hopeful examples that point the way to rich collaborations and problem solving. For example, <a href="https://www.cityoftulsa.org/government/departments/engineering-services/flood-control/flooding-history/">Tulsa, Okla.</a> was the most frequently flooded city in the U.S. from the 1960s into the 1980s, but a coalition of concerned citizens came together with the city government to create a floodplain management plan that serves as <a href="https://kresge.org/resource/climate-adaptation-the-state-of-practice-in-u-s-communities/">a model</a> for other cities. </p>
<p>In another example, Indigenous communities around the U.S. have some of the most <a href="https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH16">proactive planning</a> in place for adapting to climate change, despite histories of persecution, theft and violent exploitation.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on Indigenous-led bison conservations in the U.S., produced by the Associated Press.</span></figcaption>
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<p>There is an adage that says in order to go quickly, go alone; if you want to go far, go together. Make no mistake, climate change is the most urgent issue of our time. However, moving quickly and carelessly will serve only to re-entrench existing social, economic, political and environmental inequalities. </p>
<p>Instead, we must look at other ways of being in the world. We can repair and recreate our relationships with the Earth and the consumption that has gotten us to this point. We can <a href="https://theconversation.com/respect-for-indigenous-knowledge-must-lead-nature-conservation-efforts-in-canada-156273">pay attention and listen to global Indigenous peoples and others who have cared for this earth for millennia</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-change-theatre-and-performances-reveal-new-narratives-about-how-we-need-to-live-219366">COP28: Climate change theatre and performances reveal new narratives about how we need to live</a>
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<p>We must be more creative with our solutions and committed to ensuring that all, and not just a privileged few, are able to live in a better world than the one in which they were born into. Technological approaches alone will not achieve this goal. To build a better world we need the social sciences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change is often seen as solely a technical problem. This is a misguided belief. Understanding how to build a better world begins, and ends, with understanding the societies which inhabit it.Fayola Helen Jacobs, Assistant Professor of urban planning, University of MinnesotaCandis Callison, Associate professor, School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, and Institute for Critical Indigenous Studies, University of British ColumbiaElizabeth Marino, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244382024-03-04T13:41:42Z2024-03-04T13:41:42ZDemand for computer chips fuelled by AI could reshape global politics and security<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578585/original/file-20240228-18-rudxyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C0%2C6361%2C3592&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-silicon-die-being-extracted-semiconductor-2262331365">IM Imagery / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A global race to build powerful computer chips that are essential for the next generation of artificial intelligence (AI) tools could have a major impact on global politics and security. </p>
<p>The US is currently leading the race in the design of these chips, also known as semiconductors. But most of the manufacturing is carried out in Taiwan. The debate has been fuelled by the call by Sam Altman, CEO of ChatGPT’s developer OpenAI, for <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-seeks-trillions-of-dollars-to-reshape-business-of-chips-and-ai-89ab3db0">a US$5 trillion to US$7 trillion</a> (£3.9 trillion to £5.5 trillion) global investment to <a href="https://venturebeat.com/ai/sam-altman-wants-up-to-7-trillion-for-ai-chips-the-natural-resources-required-would-be-mind-boggling/">produce more powerful chips</a> for the next generation of AI platforms. </p>
<p>The amount of money Altman called for is more than the chip industry has spent in total since it began. Whatever the facts about those numbers, overall projections for the AI market are mind blowing. The data analytics company GlobalData <a href="https://www.globaldata.com/media/technology/generative-ai-will-go-mainstream-2024-driven-adoption-specialized-custom-models-multimodal-tool-experimentation-says-globaldata/">forecasts that the market will be worth US$909 billion</a> by 2030.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, over the past two years, the US, China, Japan and several European countries have increased their budget allocations and put in place measures to secure or maintain a share of the chip industry for themselves. China is catching up fast and is <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/china-boosts-semiconductor-subsidies-as-us-tightens-restrictions/">subsidising chips, including next-generation ones for AI</a>, by hundreds of billions over the next decade to build a manufacturing supply chain. </p>
<p>Subsidies seem to be the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/germany-earmarks-20-bln-eur-chip-industry-coming-years-2023-07-25/">preferred strategy for Germany too</a>. The UK government has announced its <a href="https://www.ukri.org/news/100m-boost-in-ai-research-will-propel-transformative-innovations/#:%7E:text=%C2%A3100m%20boost%20in%20AI%20research%20will%20propel%20transformative%20innovations,-6%20February%202024&text=Nine%20new%20research%20hubs%20located,help%20to%20define%20responsible%20AI.">plans to invest £100 million</a> to support regulators and universities in addressing challenges around artificial intelligence. </p>
<p>The economic historian Chris Miller, the author of the book Chip War, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/ai-chip-race-fears-grow-of-huge-financial-bubble/a-68272265">has talked about how powerful chips have become a “strategic commodity”</a> on the global geopolitical stage.</p>
<p>Despite the efforts by several countries to invest in the future of chips, there is currently a shortage of the types currently needed for AI systems. Miller recently explained that 90% of the chips used to train, or improve, AI systems are <a href="https://www.siliconrepublic.com/future-human/chip-war-semiconductors-supply-tech-geopolitics-chris-miller">produced by just one company</a>.</p>
<p>That company is the <a href="https://www.tsmc.com/english">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)</a>. Taiwan’s dominance in the chip manufacturing industry is notable because the island is also the focus for tensions between China and the US. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-microchip-industry-would-implode-if-china-invaded-taiwan-and-it-would-affect-everyone-206335">The microchip industry would implode if China invaded Taiwan, and it would affect everyone</a>
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<p>Taiwan has, for the most part, <a href="https://www.taiwan.gov.tw/content_3.php#:%7E:text=The%20ROC%20government%20relocated%20to,rule%20of%20a%20different%20government.">been independent since the middle of the 20th century</a>. However, Beijing believes it should be <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-calls-taiwan-president-frontrunner-destroyer-peace-2023-12-31/">reunited with the rest of China</a> and US legislation requires Washington to <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479#:%7E:text=Declares%20that%20in%20furtherance%20of,defense%20capacity%20as%20determined%20by">help defend Taiwan if it is invaded</a>. What would happen to the chip industry under such a scenario is unclear, but it is obviously a focus for global concern.</p>
<p>The disruption of supply chains in chip manufacturing have the potential to bring entire industries to a halt. Access to the raw materials, such as rare earth metals, used in computer chips has also proven to be an important bottleneck. For example, China <a href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2024/technology/">controls 60% of the production of gallium metal</a> and 80% of the global production of germanium. These are both critical raw products used in chip manufacturing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Sam Altman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578592/original/file-20240228-30-178em0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has called for a US$5 trillion to $7 trillion investment in chips to support the growth in AI.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/openai-ceo-sam-altman-attends-artificial-2412159621">Photosince / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>And there are other, lesser known bottlenecks. A process called <a href="https://research.ibm.com/blog/what-is-euv-lithography">extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography</a> is vital for the ability to continue making computer chips smaller and smaller – and therefore more powerful. <a href="https://www.asml.com/en">A single company in the Netherlands, ASML</a>, is the only manufacturer of EUV systems for chip production.</p>
<p>However, chip factories are increasingly being built outside Asia again – something that has the potential to reduce over-reliance on a few supply chains. Plants in the US are being subsidised to the tune of <a href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2024/technology/">US$43 billion and in Europe, US$53 billion</a>. </p>
<p>For example, the Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer TSMC is planning to build a multibillion dollar facility in Arizona. When it opens, that factory <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-microchip-industry-would-implode-if-china-invaded-taiwan-and-it-would-affect-everyone-206335">will not be producing the most advanced chips</a> that it’s possible to currently make, many of which are still produced by Taiwan.</p>
<p>Moving chip production outside Taiwan could reduce the risk to global supplies in the event that manufacturing were somehow disrupted. But this process could take years to have a meaningful impact. It’s perhaps not surprising that, for the first time, this year’s Munich Security Conference <a href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2024/technology/">created a chapter devoted to technology</a> as a global security issue, with discussion of the role of computer chips. </p>
<h2>Wider issues</h2>
<p>Of course, the demand for chips to fuel AI’s growth is not the only way that artificial intelligence will make major impact on geopolitics and global security. The growth of disinformation and misinformation online has transformed politics in recent years by inflating prejudices on both sides of debates. </p>
<p>We have seen it <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26675075">during the Brexit campaign</a>, during <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20563051231177943">US presidential elections</a> and, more recently, during the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-misinformation-fact-check-e58f9ab8696309305c3ea2bfb269258e">conflict in Gaza</a>. AI could be the ultimate amplifier of disinformation. Take, for example, deepfakes – AI-manipulated videos, audio or images of public figures. These could easily fool people into thinking a major <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/26/ai-deepfakes-disinformation-election">political candidate had said something they didn’t</a>.</p>
<p>As a sign of this technology’s growing importance, at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, 20 of the world’s largest tech companies <a href="https://news.microsoft.com/2024/02/16/technology-industry-to-combat-deceptive-use-of-ai-in-2024-elections/">launched something called the “Tech Accord”</a>. In it, they pledged to cooperate to create tools to spot, label and debunk deepfakes. </p>
<p>But should such important issues be left to tech companies to police? Mechanisms such as the EU’s Digital Service Act, the UK’s Online Safety Bill as well as frameworks to regulate AI itself should help. But it remains to be seen what impact they can have on the issue.</p>
<p>The issues raised by the chip industry and the growing demand driven by AI’s growth are just one way that AI is driving change on the global stage. But it remains a vitally important one. National leaders and authorities must not underestimate the influence of AI. Its potential to redefine geopolitics and global security could exceed our ability to both predict and plan for the changes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alina Vaduva is affiliated with the Labour Party, as a member and elected councillor in Dartford, Kent. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirk Chang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The effects of AI’s growth on global security could be difficult to predict.Kirk Chang, Professor of Management and Technology, University of East LondonAlina Vaduva, Director of the Business Advice Centre for Post Graduate Students at UEL, Ambassador of the Centre for Innovation, Management and Enterprise, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2243772024-02-28T13:16:42Z2024-02-28T13:16:42ZRed Sea politics: why Turkey is helping Somalia defend its waters<p><em>Somalia and Turkey recently announced that they would <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-provide-maritime-security-support-somalia-official-2024-02-22/#:%7E:text=The%20agreement%20aims%20to%20enhance,against%20terrorism%2C%22%20he%20said.">expand</a> the terms of a defence agreement first signed on <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/turkiye-somalia-sign-agreement-on-defense-economic-cooperation/3132095">8 February 2024</a> to include the maritime sector. This came as tensions rose between Somalia and landlocked Ethiopia. Ethiopia is seeking access to the Red Sea <a href="https://theconversation.com/somaliland-ethiopia-port-deal-international-opposition-flags-complex-red-sea-politics-221131">through Somaliland</a>, a breakaway state of Somalia. Federico Donelli, an international relations professor <a href="https://scholar.google.com.tr/citations?hl=it&user=lH6U_44AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">whose research</a> covers Red Sea security and politics, puts this defence agreement into context.</em></p>
<h2>What’s the scope of the relationship between Turkey and Somalia?</h2>
<p>Turkey’s entry into Somalia in <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2011/8/19/turkish-pm-visits-famine-hit-somalia">2011</a> started out as a humanitarian partnership but soon turned into a strategic one. Its support since has been economic and infrastructural and has increasingly included the military. </p>
<p>The Turkish government saw Somalia’s <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2872980">failed statehood</a> and the lack of other major international stakeholders as an opportunity to increase its popularity <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/au/turkey-in-africa-9780755636976/">across Africa</a>.</p>
<p>Turkey aimed to: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>gain international visibility</p></li>
<li><p>test its ability to intervene in conflict and post-conflict scenarios</p></li>
<li><p>increase market diversification into east Africa </p></li>
<li><p>cultivate its image as a benevolent Muslim middle power by promoting Islamic solidarity. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Several Turkish faith-based associations and NGOs already active in Africa became <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/189390/turkish-aid-agencies-in-somalia.pdf">directly involved</a> in development and relief projects. Major national brands, such as <a href="https://www.talpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/AID-CAMPAIGN-FOR-SOMALIA.pdf">Turkish Airlines</a>, promoted campaigns to raise funds for Somalia. </p>
<p>Within a few years, Turkey’s involvement in Somalia was portrayed by the government and perceived by the Turkish public as a domestic issue. </p>
<p>Turkey’s early efforts to bring Somalia back to the table of the international community were successful. </p>
<p>With the reopening of Mogadishu’s port and airport in <a href="https://jp.reuters.com/article/idUSL6N0SA47N/">2014</a>, both managed by Turkish companies, the economic situation in Somalia improved compared to the previous decade. Turkish political elites began to present their involvement in Somalia as a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ia/article-abstract/97/4/1105/6307685?redirectedFrom=fulltext">success story</a>. This is despite some remaining critical problems, including failing to root out the terrorist organisation <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-drives-al-shabaab-in-somalia-foreign-forces-out-sharia-law-in-and-overthrow-the-government-191366">Al-Shabaab</a>. </p>
<p>Turkey took responsibility for training the Somali National Army in partnership with other stakeholders, including the European Union and the United States. It <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1C50J9/#:%7E:text=MOGADISHU%2FANKARA%20(Reuters)%20%2D,a%20presence%20in%20East%20Africa.">opened a military base</a> in Mogadishu in 2017. The base trains one of the army’s elite units, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/somalia-military-rebuilding-shows-signs-of-improvement/6856894.html">the Gorgor Brigades</a>, and serves as a Turkish military outpost in the region. </p>
<p>Al-Shabaab’s persistence has <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315557083-11/hybrid-actor-horn-africa-federico-donelli?context=ubx&refId=88b5c3af-4bc2-4a09-af0b-c8d3df34534e">convinced Turkey</a> that it needs to provide more active military support for Somalia’s development. Ankara also wants to protect its economic and political investments in Somalia. </p>
<p>Finally, behind the Turkish deal with Somalia is the politics around the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato). </p>
<p>Over the past 12 months, Turkey has <a href="https://www.africaintelligence.com/north-africa/2023/10/20/washington-accepts-continuing-turkish-military-presence-in-libya,110078869-art">moved closer</a> to the United States. It’s positioned itself as an effective ally in Africa to counteract the negative effects of <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/rest-of-africa/last-french-troops-bow-out-of-africa-s-sahel-4472268">France’s withdrawal</a> – such as the <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/28/russia-s-growing-footprint-in-africa-s-sahel-region-pub-89135">increasing influence of Russia</a>. Turkey’s commitment to Somalia follows its <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.tr/bilateral-relations-between-turkiye-and-libya.en.mfa">efforts in Libya</a>. </p>
<p>In both cases, Turkey has proven willing to take on the security burden that other <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm">Nato members</a>, particularly Italy, have refused to meet. </p>
<p>Turkey’s engagement in Somalia is, therefore, part of a broader foreign policy strategy to gain more autonomy in global politics. Increased relevance within Nato would help achieve this. </p>
<h2>What’s the context of the maritime defence pact between Turkey and Somalia?</h2>
<p>Turkey and Somalia began working on an agreement between November 2023 and January 2024. Turkey agreed to <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/somalia-authorises-turkey-defend-its-sea-waters-deal">train and equip</a> Somalia’s naval force and help patrol the country’s 3,333km coastline. </p>
<p>Turkey’s defence sector has had increasing influence in Ankara’s foreign policy decisions. Turkey sees itself as an exporter of defence industry products, and as a partner in training special forces and police. African countries are among the main targets for the Turkish defence sector. </p>
<p>Somalia, therefore, provides an opportunity to spread more Turkish production and items.</p>
<p>In 2022, Turkey became, along with the United States, the main backer of a <a href="https://ctc.westpoint.edu/can-somalias-new-offensive-defeat-al-shabaab/">new offensive against Al-Shabaab</a>. It provided logistical support to the Gorgor forces and air cover to the national army. This cooperation has led to the 10-year defence agreement, including maritime security, signed in February 2024. </p>
<p>Turkey and Somalia have been working on the accord for some time, but recent regional events have undoubtedly affected the announcement’s timing. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://theconversation.com/somaliland-ethiopia-port-deal-international-opposition-flags-complex-red-sea-politics-221131">Ethiopia-Somaliland memorandum of understanding</a> in January 2024 is one such event. Turkey has good relations with Somaliland, but considers the territorial integrity of Somalia to be essential for its stability. </p>
<p>At the same time, the Horn of Africa’s political dynamics are shifting. <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/oped/comment/somalia-ethiopia-tensions-only-serve-to-embolden-al-shabaab-4512492">Mounting tensions</a> between Ethiopia and Somalia have led to new coalitions involving regional and extra-regional players. </p>
<p>It’s important not to oversimplify, but two factions are emerging. On one side are Ethiopia, Somaliland and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). On the other are Somalia, Egypt, Eritrea and Saudi Arabia. </p>
<p>At first, Turkey sought to mediate between the factions to defuse tensions. </p>
<p>But its agreement with Somalia reduces Turkey’s room for manoeuvre. Although the relationship with Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed appears to be unaffected, there could be negative repercussions, especially for the many <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.tr/relations-between-turkiye-and-ethiopia.en.mfa#:%7E:text=While%20the%20number%20of%20Turkish,with%20approximately%20200%20Turkish%20companies.">Turkish economic interests in Ethiopia</a>.</p>
<h2>What is the UAE factor?</h2>
<p>When it comes to the Horn of Africa, the UAE plays a pivotal role. Turkey and Somalia each have a relationship with the Emirates. </p>
<p>From 2014 to 2020, Turkey engaged in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09592318.2021.1976573?src=recsys">bitter rivalry</a> with the Emirates in the wider Red Sea area. This was driven by the two countries’ different visions for the region’s future. </p>
<p>Relations improved from 2020. During the 2020-2022 war in Tigray, <a href="https://www.newarab.com/analysis/why-rival-powers-are-backing-ethiopias-government">both Turkey and the UAE supported the Ethiopian government</a>. </p>
<p>But recent developments in the Horn of Africa, such as the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/1/4/ambiguous-ethiopia-port-deal-fuels-uncertainty-over-somaliland-statehood">UAE-backed Ethiopia-Somaliland deal</a>, threaten to create new friction between Turkey and the Emirates. Turkey doesn’t have the political will or material capacity to sustain this. In the past three years, the UAE has supported the Turkish economy with <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/1976546/middle-east">direct investment</a>, changing the balance of the relationship. </p>
<p>The situation is similar for Somalia. </p>
<p>From a commercial and security perspective, the Emirates is important in Somalia. The UAE <a href="https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/after-djibouti-failure-dp-world-heads-up-somalia-for-controversial-port-projects">manages two key Somali ports</a> – Berbera and Bosaso. It’s also moving to take over Kismayo. And the Emirates has been one of Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/new-president-somalia-new-opportunity-reconciliation">principal backers</a>. It would be risky for the Somali president to break ties with Abu Dhabi.</p>
<h2>What happens next?</h2>
<p>There is still much uncertainty about how the Ethiopia-Somaliland memorandum of understanding and the Turkey-Somalia defence cooperation agreements will be put into practice. What’s clear is that both the UAE and Turkey are becoming more active and influential in the region. And that African dynamics within and between states are closely intertwined with regional and global trends.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224377/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Federico Donelli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The persistence of the Al-Shabaab terror group has convinced Turkey it needs to provide more active military support in Somalia.Federico Donelli, Assistant Professor of International Relations, University of TriesteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2243652024-02-27T04:06:50Z2024-02-27T04:06:50ZAlabama ruling frozen embryos are equivalent to living children has worrying implications for IVF<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578118/original/file-20240227-28-8t4spu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dewar-liquid-nitrogen-straws-frozenn-embryos-1225485064">Ekaterina Georgievskaia/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In <a href="https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/4b56014daa6dda84/a039b1d9-full.pdf">December 2020 in Alabama</a>, a hospital patient gained unauthorised access to an adjoining IVF storage facility, which was not adequately secured. The patient is said to have removed several frozen embryos, which they then dropped on the floor, owing to a freeze-burn to their hand. The embryos were destroyed.</p>
<p>In Alabama, the <a href="https://casetext.com/statute/code-of-alabama/title-6-civil-practice/chapter-5-actions/article-22-injury-and-death-of-minor/section-6-5-391-wrongful-death-of-minor">Wrongful Death of a Minor Act</a> allows parents of a deceased child to recover punitive damages for their child’s death, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-25/ivf-frozen-embryo-alabama-supreme-court-ruling/103501872">three couples affected</a> by the incident subsequently brought lawsuits against the clinic under this legislation.</p>
<p>When this case was heard recently in the Supreme Court of Alabama, the majority of justices opined this statute <a href="https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/4b56014daa6dda84/a039b1d9-full.pdf">applies to frozen embryos</a> because:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>an unborn child is a genetically unique human being whose life begins at fertilization and ends at death.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This essentially means frozen embryos are protected under Alabama law to the same extent as any living child. While this was a civil matter, it’s not inconceivable that, based on this interpretation, anyone who destroys a frozen embryo in Alabama – accidentally or on purpose – could face criminal penalties, such as manslaughter or even murder charges. </p>
<p>Likely for fear it’s too risky, clinics in the state are now limiting their IVF services, leaving patients having to <a href="https://www.today.com/video/more-clinics-in-alabama-stop-ivf-treatments-after-court-ruling-204773957818">seek treatment elsewhere</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/considering-using-ivf-to-have-a-baby-heres-what-you-need-to-know-108910">Considering using IVF to have a baby? Here's what you need to know</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Ascribing personhood to frozen embryos is not a novel idea, but such a conviction is held only by the very fringes of the religious and conservative spectrum. There are clear political dimensions to this ruling, which appears to be an extension of a radical agenda on the altar of which the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">Supreme Court of the United States</a> recently sacrificed the right to abortion. </p>
<p>This ruling from the Supreme Court of Alabama reflects a profound ignorance about how the process of IVF works.</p>
<h2>Creating multiple embryos is essential for overall IVF success</h2>
<p>The process of in vitro fertilisation, or IVF, begins with a “stimulated” cycle, where hormones are injected into a woman to stimulate an ovary to produce multiple eggs. These eggs are then collected and combined with sperm, forming embryos that are placed in an incubator to grow. </p>
<p>Five days later, the embryos are assessed. Some develop into “good quality” embryos suitable for transfer into a woman’s uterus. The hope is that following the transfer, the embryo will implant and result in a viable pregnancy, ultimately leading to the birth of a healthy child. Any good-quality embryos not used in a stimulated cycle are usually frozen for future attempts.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, IVF is somewhat inefficient, with attrition a prominent feature at every stage. Not all collected eggs are suitable for fertilisation, not all fertilise, not all embryos fertilise normally, and not all normally-fertilised embryos are of good quality. Poor-quality eggs, abnormally-fertilised embryos and poor-quality embryos are routinely discarded.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1760408483688534266"}"></div></p>
<p>The practical implications of this process and the heartbreaking reality for individuals and couples undergoing IVF is that it takes, on average, three to five eggs to produce <a href="https://npesu.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/npesu/data_collection/Assisted%20Reproductive%20Technology%20in%20Australia%20and%20New%20Zealand%202021.pdf">one good-quality embryo</a>. However, this number is age-dependent and significantly higher for older women. </p>
<p>The chance of achieving pregnancy from one embryo transfer is also significantly influenced by <a href="https://npesu.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/npesu/data_collection/Assisted%20Reproductive%20Technology%20in%20Australia%20and%20New%20Zealand%202021.pdf">the woman’s age</a>, being as high as 50% in younger women but decreasing exponentially as a woman gets older. At the age of 46, it can be as low as 1-2%. </p>
<p>So it’s vital to be able to safely produce as many good-quality embryos as possible from one stimulated IVF cycle in case multiple sequential embryo transfers are needed to achieve a healthy pregnancy. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-business-of-ivf-how-human-eggs-went-from-simple-cells-to-a-valuable-commodity-119168">The business of IVF: how human eggs went from simple cells to a valuable commodity</a>
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</em>
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<p>Should the initial embryo transfer fail to produce a viable pregnancy, and frozen embryos are available, those can be thawed and transferred into a woman’s uterus in a “thaw” cycle. These cycles usually don’t require the use of injectable hormones or an egg collection and, in most instances, require only monitoring (including ultrasounds and blood tests), and timed embryo transfer.</p>
<p>The risks associated with IVF, such as bleeding and infections, are mostly confined to the stimulated cycles, while thaw cycles <a href="https://npesu.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/npesu/data_collection/Assisted%20Reproductive%20Technology%20in%20Australia%20and%20New%20Zealand%202021.pdf">pose minimal risk</a>. Notably, the most labour-intensive, and, therefore, costly portion is the stimulated cycle, while a thaw cycle can be around three to four times cheaper. </p>
<p>Should embryo freezing become unavailable, all people undergoing IVF would have to rely solely on stimulated cycles to achieve pregnancy, significantly increasing the risks and radically escalating the costs.</p>
<h2>The judge’s error in interpreting Australian practice</h2>
<p>Tom Parker, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama, made the following statement in his judgement:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>in Australia and New Zealand, prevailing ethical standards dictate that physicians usually create only one embryo at a time.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He implied that in Australia, the only IVF cycles ethically permitted are stimulated cycles, where just one embryo is created and transferred, with no embryos being frozen. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pregnant woman holding her stomach." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578120/original/file-20240227-24-koxpao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578120/original/file-20240227-24-koxpao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578120/original/file-20240227-24-koxpao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578120/original/file-20240227-24-koxpao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578120/original/file-20240227-24-koxpao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578120/original/file-20240227-24-koxpao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578120/original/file-20240227-24-koxpao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many women need the help of IVF to become pregnant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/image-pregnant-woman-touching-her-belly-147978782">10 FACE/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>However, this assertion is demonstrably false. There are no guidelines or regulations in Australia that discourage the creation of multiple embryos, as this practice enhances overall pregnancy rates, while making IVF safer and more cost-effective. </p>
<p>What is discouraged is the <em>transfer</em> of multiple embryos at one time, as this increases the likelihood of multiple births, which carry <a href="https://www.fertilitysociety.com.au/wp-content/uploads/20211124-RTAC-ANZ-COP.pdf">heightened medical risks</a> for both mothers and babies.</p>
<p>It seems the Chief Justice has fundamentally misunderstood the Australian regulatory framework. Ironically, the <a href="https://www.varta.org.au/sites/default/files/2023-11/VARTA_AR2023.pdf">excellent IVF outcomes</a> and very low rates of multiple births in Australia are largely attributable to the widespread use of frozen embryo transfer cycles – a practice now <a href="https://www.today.com/video/more-clinics-in-alabama-stop-ivf-treatments-after-court-ruling-204773957818">under threat</a> in Alabama.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I am a fertility specialist and a Medical Director of Genea Fertility Melbourne, a private IVF unit.</span></em></p>A recent ruling from the Supreme Court of Alabama implies frozen embryos are legally equivalent to living children. This creates risks for IVF providers, and therefore problems for patients.Alex Polyakov, Medical Director, Genea Fertility Melbourne; Clinical Associate Professor, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2235982024-02-16T13:19:53Z2024-02-16T13:19:53ZMexico is suing US gun-makers for arming its gangs − and a US court could award billions in damages<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575682/original/file-20240214-30-2tfucu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C13%2C4315%2C2857&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A sign in Laredo, Texas, reminds motorists not to smuggle guns into Mexico.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-warns-motorists-not-to-smuggle-weapons-or-ammunitions-news-photo/91474155">Gilles Mingasson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The government of Mexico is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/01/23/us-appeals-court-allows-mexicos-10-billion-lawsuit-against-us-gunmakers-to-proceed/?sh=7f16abcb3071">suing U.S. gun-makers</a> for their role in facilitating cross-border gun trafficking that has <a href="https://stopusarmstomexico.org/invisible-weapons-indelible-pain/">supercharged violent crime</a> in Mexico.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/mexico-smith-wesson-complaint.pdf">The lawsuit seeks US$10 billion</a> in damages and a court order to force the companies named in the lawsuit – including Smith & Wesson, Colt, Glock, Beretta and Ruger – to change the way they do business. In January, a federal appeals court in Boston <a href="https://tlblog.org/first-circuit-allows-some-of-mexicos-claims-against-gun-manufacturer-to-move-forward/">decided</a> that the industry’s immunity shield, which so far has protected gun-makers from civil liability, does not apply to Mexico’s lawsuit.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yQUI6yEAAAAJ&hl=en">a legal scholar</a> who has <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/S/Suing-the-Gun-Industry2">analyzed lawsuits</a> against the gun industry for more than 25 years, I believe this decision to allow Mexico’s lawsuit to proceed could be a game changer. To understand why, let’s begin with some background about the federal law that protects the gun industry from civil lawsuits.</p>
<h2>Gun industry immunity</h2>
<p>In 2005, Congress passed the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/15/chapter-105">Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act</a>, which prohibits lawsuits against firearm manufacturers and sellers for injuries arising from criminal misuse of a gun.</p>
<p>Importantly, <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4357413">there are limits</a> to this immunity shield. For example, it <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/15/7903">doesn’t protect</a> a manufacturer or seller who “knowingly violated a State or Federal statute <a href="https://theconversation.com/sandy-hook-lawsuit-court-victory-opens-crack-in-gun-maker-immunity-shield-113636">applicable to the sale or marketing</a>” of a firearm. <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/mexico-smith-wesson-complaint.pdf">Mexico’s lawsuit</a> alleges that U.S. gun-makers aided and abetted illegal weapons sales to gun traffickers in violation of federal law.</p>
<h2>Mexico’s allegations</h2>
<p>Mexico claims that U.S. gun-makers engaged in “<a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/mexico-smith-wesson-complaint">deliberate efforts to create and maintain an illegal market for their weapons in Mexico</a>.”</p>
<p>According to the lawsuit, the manufacturers intentionally design their weapons to be attractive to criminal organizations in Mexico by including features such as easy conversion to fully automatic fire, compatibility with high-capacity magazines and removable serial numbers.</p>
<p>Mexico also points to industry marketing that promises buyers a tactical military experience for civilians. And Mexico alleges that manufacturers distribute their products to dealers whom they know serve as transit points for illegal gunrunning through illegal <a href="https://www.nssf.org/articles/beware-the-straw-purchase/">straw sales</a>, unlicensed sales at gun shows and online, and off-book sales disguised as inventory theft.</p>
<p>In short, Mexico claims that illegal gun trafficking isn’t just an unwanted byproduct of the industry’s design choices, marketing campaigns and distribution practices. Instead, according to the lawsuit, feeding demand for illegal weapons is central to the industry’s business model.</p>
<p>In response, <a href="https://perma.cc/RRT6-PVDZ">the gun-makers insist</a> that Mexico’s attempt to hold them legally responsible for the criminal activity of others is precisely the type of lawsuit that the federal immunity shield was designed to block. They argue that merely selling a product that someone later uses in a crime does not amount to a violation of federal law that would deprive a manufacturer of immunity. Additionally, the gun-makers assert that, even if Mexico’s lawsuit were not barred by the immunity law, they have no legal duty to prevent criminal violence that occurs outside the U.S. </p>
<h2>The next legal steps</h2>
<p>In January 2024, a federal appeals court in Massachusetts decided that Mexico’s allegations, if true, would deprive the gun-makers of immunity, and it <a href="https://tlblog.org/first-circuit-allows-some-of-mexicos-claims-against-gun-manufacturer-to-move-forward/">sent the case back to trial court</a>. Mexico now needs to produce evidence to prove its allegations that the industry is not only aware of but actively facilitates illegal gun trafficking. </p>
<p>Additionally, to win, Mexico will need to convince a Boston jury that the manufacturers’ design choices, marketing campaigns and distribution practices are closely enough connected to street crime in Mexico to consider the companies responsible for the problem. This is known as “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/proximate_cause">proximate cause</a>” in the law.</p>
<p>For their part, the gun-makers have asked the trial judge to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/gun-makers-ask-us-supreme-court-bar-mexicos-lawsuit-2024-02-09">put the case on hold</a> while they pursue an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. However, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/12/us/politics/supreme-court-sandy-hook-remington.html">the Supreme Court has been reluctant</a> to weigh in on gun industry cases until they have reached their conclusion in the lower courts, where most of them <a href="https://casetext.com/case/ileto-v-glock-inc-2">are dismissed</a> and a few <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sandy-hook-school-shooting-remington-settlement-e53b95d398ee9b838afc06275a4df403">have settled</a>. </p>
<h2>High stakes for the industry</h2>
<p>If Mexico does win at trial, its demand for $10 billion in damages could drive several of the nation’s largest firearm manufacturers into <a href="https://www.epiqglobal.com/en-us/resource-center/articles/when-mass-tort-meets-bankruptcy">bankruptcy</a>. Even if the case were to settle for much less, a victory by Mexico would provide a template for a wave of future lawsuits that could change the way the gun industry operates.</p>
<p>Similar theories about dangerous product designs, irresponsible marketing and reckless distribution practices in opioid litigation have transformed the pharmaceutical industry. Civil lawsuits have forced the drugmakers to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/mckinsey-opioids-oxycontin.html">take public responsibility</a> for a nationwide health crisis, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-021-06799-1">overhaul the way they do business</a> and <a href="https://www.opioidsettlementtracker.com/globalsettlementtracker">pay billions of dollars</a> in judgments and settlements.</p>
<p>Mexico’s lawsuit holds out the prospect that the gun industry could be next.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy D. Lytton has provided expert consulting services to law firms representing gun violence victims.</span></em></p>Mexico claims that US firearm manufacturers are fueling illegal cross-border gun trafficking and violent crime abroad.Timothy D. Lytton, Regents' Professor & Professor of Law, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233902024-02-15T16:17:04Z2024-02-15T16:17:04ZKosovo: consolidating its statehood remains an uphill struggle 16 years after independence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575352/original/file-20240213-20-g81uw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5421%2C3715&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flag-kosovo-on-soldiers-arm-collage-1249661251">Bumble Dee/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia on February 17 2008. It was a day full of joy and hope for a country that <a href="https://1997-2001.state.gov/global/human_rights/kosovoii/homepage.html">suffered</a> atrocities including ethnic cleansing, genocide and rape at the hands of Serbian forces during the Kosovo War (1998–1999).</p>
<p>The country is now <a href="https://mfa-ks.net/lista-e-njohjeve/">recognised</a> internationally by more than 100 states and has become a member of some international organisations. Kosovo has also established itself as one of the most functional and vibrant <a href="https://www.idea.int/blog/kosovos-democracy-has-come-long-way-it-needs-support">democracies</a> in the Balkans. </p>
<p>But neighbouring Serbia doesn’t recognise Kosovo’s independence and ethnic Serbs living in the country’s north have largely <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-kosovos-stand-off-with-serbs-goes-15-years-after-statehood-2023-02-13/">rejected</a> Kosovo’s state authority. So, in 2011, the EU and the US brought the two countries together for talks on normalising relations. </p>
<p>The talks initially yielded some agreements that were hailed as “historic”. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/30/serbia-kosovo-historic-agreement-brussels">Brussels agreement</a> in 2013, for example, defined the conditions for large-scale devolution of northern Kosovo and opened the way to membership of the EU. </p>
<p>But, since then, ambiguous language and a lack of goodwill between Serbia and Kosovo has meant that these intentions haven’t delivered significant changes.</p>
<h2>Accommodating Serbia</h2>
<p>The breakdown in cooperation has been exploited by Serbia to undermine Kosovo’s standing as a sovereign state. Serbia has strengthened its <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2021/12/07/serbia-strengthening-parallel-structures-kosovo-deputy-pm-says/">parallel structures</a> (a set of Belgrade-run institutions in Kosovo) which are in the country’s Serb-dominated north, lobbied against Kosovo’s bid to join <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/09/kosovo-fails-in-unesco-membership-bid">Unesco</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/general-news-12c2b452f3d644dcabe63bad05040783">Interpol</a>, and orchestrated an aggressive <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2023/01/05/serbian-president-claims-nine-more-kosovo-recognition-withdrawals/">derecognition</a> campaign against Kosovo.</p>
<p>Instead of normalising relations between Pristina and Belgrade, some people argue that the talks have become a tool for the EU and the US to normalise their relations with Serbia’s president, Alexander Vučić. </p>
<p>Concerned about Serbia’s potential to destabilise the Balkans, Brussels and Washington have adopted a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/14/europe/serbia-vucic-kosovo-balkans-west-intl-cmd/index.html">lenient posture</a> towards Vučić, aiming to pull Serbia away from Russia’s influence. Russia’s war in Ukraine and its potential security implications for the Balkans (where Serbia is considered <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/14047/html/">Moscow’s proxy</a>) has, contrary to any reasonable expectation, amplified this approach.</p>
<p>The Kosovo government’s attempts to extend state control of ethnic Serbian municipalities in northern Kosovo, for example, have been <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/west-kosovo-ban-serbs-dinar/32795252.html">criticised</a> by the EU and US. On February 1, Kosovo’s central bank restricted all cash transactions anywhere in the country to euros, effectively banning the Serbian dinar.</p>
<p>But the EU and US attitude has emboldened Vučić to <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2022/11/05/serbs-stage-mass-resignation-from-kosovo-state-institutions/">intensify his efforts</a> to undermine Kosovo. He has used Kosovo Serbs living in the north to stoke tensions and make the country ungovernable. </p>
<p>In June 2023, three Kosovan police officers were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/serbias-security-forces-detain-three-kosovo-police-officers-kosovo-official-says-2023-06-14/">detained</a> by Serbian forces who accused them of crossing the border illegally. And tensions boiled over in September when a group of <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-serbia-radoicic-extradition-impossible/32729208.html">heavily armed men</a> mounted an attack in northern Kosovo, leaving one Kosovan police officer and three gunmen <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66905091">dead</a>. A Kosovan Serb politician called Milan Radoicic has <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/serbia-release-monastery-attack-radoicic/32622767.html">claimed</a> to be the mastermind of the attack. </p>
<p>The international community condemned the attack and called for further investigations to hold those responsible to account. However, there still hasn’t been any official public assessment of the attack, nor have any sanctions been imposed on Serbia. Meanwhile, the EU has imposed <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2023/06/14/eu-announces-measures-against-kosovo-over-unrest-in-north/">sanctions on Kosovo</a>, accusing the government of failing to take steps to defuse the crisis in the north.</p>
<h2>Other priorities</h2>
<p>This imbalanced approach to the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia is expected continue in 2024. There is <a href="https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2024/02/08/ep-adopted-resolution-on-serbia-calling-for-an-investigation-into-december-elections/">growing frustration</a> with Vučić’s autocratic grip in Serbia, but in the view of Brussels and Washington there doesn’t seem to be any better alternative than talking with Belgrade. Vučić is perceived as someone with enough popular legitimacy to sell Serbs a final settlement with Kosovo.</p>
<p>Kosovo’s concerns about the current approach to the dialogue between the two countries are legitimate having seen Serbia’s actions in the past. But it hasn’t much room for manoeuvre.</p>
<p>The stream of countries recognising Kosovo’s independence has stalled. In fact, Israel is the only country to establish <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2021/02/01/kosovo-establishes-relations-with-israel-breaking-blockade-on-recognitions/">diplomatic ties</a> with Kosovo in the last six years.</p>
<p>Stopping Serbia from sliding further towards autocracy would be the best option for achieving peace, stability and countering Russia’s influence in the Balkans. But that would require time and a total revision of the current dialogue format.</p>
<h2>An uphill struggle</h2>
<p>With a war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict stretching resources and causing political tension, Brussels and Washington will seek to put out any potential flames in the Balkans. The current US and EU administrations are likely to push Kosovo to bend to their demands and give Vučić something that he would be happy to live with.</p>
<p>Pristina has already <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/belgrade-pristina-dialogue-agreement-path-normalisation-between-kosovo-and-serbia_en">agreed</a> to some form of self-government for Kosovo Serbs. And, with European Parliament and US elections looming this year, where anti-establishment parties are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/24/anti-european-populists-on-track-for-big-gains-in-eu-elections-says-report">on track for big gains</a>, current leaders may rush to strike an imperfect deal between Kosovo and Serbia.</p>
<p>There’s also a chance that the EU and the US could find themselves being drawn into crisis management elsewhere if war in Ukraine and the Middle East continues to cause ripples way beyond their borders. Kosovo could be caught between meeting the international community’s demands to grant more sovereignty to Kosovo Serbs and a potential abandonment by its western partners if it doesn’t deliver on their requests.</p>
<p>Whichever way Kosovo chooses, the consolidation of its statehood will remain an uphill struggle.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223390/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Altin Gjeta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kosovo is under pressure from the US and EU to give in to some of Serbia’s demands.Altin Gjeta, PhD Candidate in Political Science and International Studies, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223522024-02-08T20:28:17Z2024-02-08T20:28:17ZAre American nuclear weapons returning to the United Kingdom?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574141/original/file-20240207-20-1vhhx4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C225%2C5184%2C2925&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A U.S. Air Force fighter jet takes off from RAF Lakenheath in the U.K. in 2018. American nuclear weapons may soon be hosted there.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In August 2023, nuclear weapons researchers <a href="https://fas.org/publication/increasing-evidence-that-the-us-air-forces-nuclear-mission-may-be-returning-to-uk-soil/">Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists reported</a> it was increasingly apparent the United States was upgrading its <a href="https://installations.militaryonesource.mil/in-depth-overview/raf-lakenheath">Lakenheath military base</a> in the United Kingdom. </p>
<p>This base hosted American nuclear weapons in the past, which raises questions about whether they’re returning. Citing Pentagon documents it obtained, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/26/us-nuclear-bombs-lackenheath-raf-russia-threat-hiroshima/"><em>The Telegraph</em> also reported</a> on the developments, noting it would be the first time in 15 years that U.S. nuclear weapons would be stationed on British soil. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1751175197229506805"}"></div></p>
<p>While there is no official confirmation about the move, <em>The Telegraph</em> reports that the U.S. is currently building the specific facilities needed to store nuclear weapons at Lakenheath. </p>
<p>This would also mean that for the first time since 1972, NATO is considering an expansion to its <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm">nuclear sharing arrangements</a>. Through these arrangements, the U.S. has stationed some of its nuclear weapons on its allies’ territory since the early days of the Cold War. </p>
<h2>Hosting American nukes</h2>
<p>At its height in the 1960s, 13 states hosted American nuclear weapons at the same time, including Canada. Yet in the last few decades, this number has gradually dwindled to <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/nuclear-weapons-europe-mapping-us-and-russian-deployments">only five NATO members: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey</a>. <a href="https://www.nti.org/countries/canada/">Canada withdrew in 1984</a>, as did Greece in 2001. The United Kingdom was the most recent country to exit the scheme in 2009.</p>
<p>The nuclear weapons hosted by the five participants are <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3571660/department-of-defense-announces-pursuit-of-b61-gravity-bomb-variant/">B61 gravity bombs</a> and can be delivered by aircraft, such as German and Italian Tornados, F-22s and the newer American F-35s. Under nuclear sharing, they would be flown into combat by the European participants’ own pilots. </p>
<p>Their yield is variable, and can be as high as more than <a href="https://www.popsci.com/technology/new-nuclear-gravity-bomb-b61-13/">five times</a> that of the <a href="https://www.history.navy.mil/content/history/museums/nmusn/explore/photography/wwii/wwii-pacific/bombardment-japan/bombs-atomic/little-boy-hiroshima.html">“Little Boy” bomb dropped on Hiroshima that killed more than 100,000 people</a>.</p>
<p>While B61 gravity bombs are perceived to have little military utility, this move is important in terms of optics and is clearly connected to Russia’s hostility toward the West, its war in Ukraine and Moscow’s <a href="https://time.com/6266418/russia-belarus-nuclear-weapons/">own announcement</a> that it <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65932700">would deploy</a> some of its nuclear weapons in Belarus. </p>
<h2>High international threat environment</h2>
<p>Russia’s war against Ukraine has fundamentally altered the international security environment. European members of NATO, especially those bordering Russia, are experiencing heightened insecurity. </p>
<p>Whereas the post-Cold War security environment had made NATO members question the relevance of nuclear sharing, recent events have reignited the debate on the alliance’s nuclear capabilities. </p>
<p>In the 2010s, members <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2021.1941603">like Germany</a> were questioning their participation in the scheme. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, that is no longer the case: consensus among nuclear sharing participants has been strengthened. </p>
<p>In a forthcoming research article in <em>International Affairs</em>, we surmise this kind of reinforcement or expansion of nuclear sharing could be the result of the Ukraine war and the changing threat perception of NATO members, which has slowed down the political momentum of anti-nuclear voices.</p>
<p>From NATO’s perspective, nuclear sharing serves two important goals. The first is to deter rivals or potential enemies by demonstrating U.S. resolve and strength. The second is to reassure NATO’s own members. </p>
<p>Stationing its bombs in Europe means the United States cannot sit out conflicts in the region. Reassuring NATO nations is the goal that appears most closely connected to this new development, as European members have repeatedly called for a reinforcement of NATO’s stand against Russia.</p>
<p>NATO members, particularly those in eastern Europe, fear a Russian invasion of their territory. By stationing some of its nuclear weapons in the United Kingdom again, the U.S. is matching Russia’s new deployment in Belarus. But more importantly, it makes clear its presence in Europe isn’t fleeting.</p>
<h2>Nuclear sharing remains contentious</h2>
<p>Ever since the 2000s, there has been considerable pressure coming from citizens in NATO nations to withdraw from nuclear sharing. German, <a href="https://www.egmontinstitute.be/app/uploads/2014/01/KDGnonproliferatie.pdf">Belgian and Dutch</a> decision-makers publicly considered removing the bombs from their territory. </p>
<p>In the absence of credible and overt threats to their security, and without forceful pressure coming from NATO itself, it had become difficult for these countries’ leaders to uphold the arrangement. After all, it’s hard for a democratic state to pursue certain avenues when it lacks the public support to do so. </p>
<p>The current Russian threat has overtaken these preoccupations.</p>
<p>Much like any other political arrangement, however, NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement can be contentious and subject to renegotiations, as shown by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/poland-is-in-talks-with-us-about-nuclear-weapons-president-says">Poland’s demands</a> to also host American nuclear weapons. </p>
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<p>NATO and its member states will no doubt use this opportunity to update its case for nuclear sharing and the existence of the alliance itself as it marks its <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_222205.htm">75th anniversary</a> in <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50115.htm">July 2024</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222352/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Émile Lambert-Deslandes receives funding from the Department of National Defence's MINDS program and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stéfanie von Hlatky has received funding from the NATO Science For Peace and Security Programme for research on Women, Peace, and Security.</span></em></p>NATO members, particularly those in eastern Europe, fear a Russian invasion of their territory. By stationing some of its nuclear weapons in the U.K. again, the U.S. could ease those fears.Émile Lambert-Deslandes, PhD student in International Relations, Queen's University, OntarioStéfanie von Hlatky, Associate Professor of Political Studies and Fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226162024-02-08T03:13:07Z2024-02-08T03:13:07ZFirst Nations people must be at the forefront of Australia’s renewable energy revolution<p>Australia’s <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003242499-10/getting-right-katie-quail-donna-green-ciaran-faircheallaigh">plentiful</a> solar and wind resources and proximity to Asia means it can become a renewable energy superpower. But as the renewable energy rollout continues, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people must benefit. </p>
<p>Renewables projects can provide income and jobs to Aboriginal land owners. Access to clean energy can also help First Nations people protect their culture and heritage, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X23000296#bbib0060">remain on Country</a>. </p>
<p>This is not a new idea. Policies in the United States and Canada, for example, actively seek to ensure the energy transition delivers opportunities to Indigenous people.</p>
<p>The Australian government is developing a <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-and-climate-change-ministerial-council/working-groups/first-nations-engagement-working-group/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy">First Nations Clean Energy Strategy</a> and is seeking comment on a <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy-consultation-paper">consultation paper</a>. Submissions close tomorrow, February 9. If you feel strongly about the issue, we urge you to have your say.</p>
<p>We must get this policy right. Investing meaningfully in First Nations-led clean energy projects makes the transition more likely to succeed. What’s more, recognising the rights and interests of First Nations people is vital to ensuring injustices of the past are not repeated.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A video by author Adam Fish exploring the Eastern Kuku Yalanji community of Wujal Wujal in Queensland and their struggle for renewable energy..</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Good for business, and people</h2>
<p>Indigenous peoples have recognised land interests covering around <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2021/may/17/who-owns-australia">26% of Australia’s landmass</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-aboriginal-communities-be-part-of-the-nsw-renewable-energy-transition-181171">Research</a> shows Aboriginal land holders want to be part of the energy transition. But they need support and resources. </p>
<p>This could take the form of federal grants to make communities more energy-efficient or less reliant on expensive, polluting diesel generators. Funding could also be spent on workforce training to ensure First Nations people have the skills to take part in the transition. Federal agencies could be funded to support grants for First Nations feasibility studies of renewable energy industry on their land.</p>
<p>As well as proper investment, governments must also ensure First Nations people are engaged early in the planning of renewable projects and that the practice of free prior and informed consent is followed. And renewable energy operators will also need to ensure they have capability to work with First peoples. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au/first_nations_can_help_australia_respond_to_the_united_states_inflation_reduction_act">First Nations Clean Energy Network</a> – of which one author, Heidi Norman, is part – is a network of First Nations people, community organisations, land councils, unions, academics, industry groups and others. It is working to ensure First Nations communities share the benefits of the clean energy boom.</p>
<p>The network is among a group of organisations calling on the federal government to invest an additional A$100 billion into the Australian renewables industry. The investment should be designed to benefit all Australians, including First Nations people.</p>
<p>In Australia, the Albanese government has set an emissions-reduction goal of a 43% by 2030, based on 2005 levels. But Australia’s renewable energy rollout is not happening fast enough to meet this goal. Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/get-to-yes-or-no-as-quickly-as-possible-bowen-wants-fast-decisions-on-renewables-20240111-p5ewmj.html">called for</a> faster planning decisions on renewable energy projects.</p>
<p>To achieve the targets, however, the federal government must bring communities along with them – including First Nations people.</p>
<p>As demonstrated by the US and Canada, investing <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003242499-10/getting-right-katie-quail-donna-green-ciaran-faircheallaigh">meaningfully and at scale</a> in First Nations-led clean energy projects is not just equitable, it makes good business sense.</p>
<h2>Follow the leaders</h2>
<p>The US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 made A$520 billion in investments to accelerate the transition to net zero. <a href="https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=123806">Native Americans</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623003845">stand</a> to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Tribal-Guidebook.pdf">receive</a> hundreds of billions of dollars from the laws. This includes funding set aside for Tribal-specific programs.</p>
<p>Canada is even further ahead in this policy space. In fact, analysis <a href="https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ICE-report-ENGLISH-FINAL.pdf">shows</a> First Nations, Métis and Inuit entities are partners or beneficiaries of almost 20% of Canada’s electricity-generating infrastructure, almost all of which is producing renewable energy. In one of the most recent investments, the Canadian government in 2022 invested <a href="https://www.rcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1481305379258/1594737453888">C$300 million</a> to help <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222031735?casa_token=SXoJWgJwAikAAAAA:aQrTM16T_OPLQEgVk31foMzZt79T5YxOz9k3v2CEsWe8fIPPneIBw6Q0DRWIHQPzqzHNbZ0">First Nations, Inuit and Métis Peoples</a> launch clean energy projects.</p>
<p>Policymakers in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623003031?casa_token=oA-q7QLSoi0AAAAA:ERC46yk_BCTFm5BnyPv9Nn2jFiFrc7XjRw_H0GKPRI_HsBq_0l8mZqxlYbim7l1zcQPAskA">both</a> <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/full/10.1139/er-2018-0024?casa_token=H26U1EGKnakAAAAA%3ALnTYxXudwDujnWnyWqUbK9Mo4R9ekhETvW7g8dthacWDox3TFSi-Jm4B4A5qpIIo1KaWEpaCU2k">countries</a> increasingly realise that a just transition from fossil fuels requires addressing the priorities of First Nations communities. These investments are a starting point for building sustainable, globally competitive economies that work for everyone.</p>
<p>As the US and Canada examples <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X22004316">demonstrate</a>, the right scale of investment in First Nations-led projects can mean fewer legal delays and a much-needed social licence to operate.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewable-projects-are-getting-built-faster-but-theres-even-more-need-for-speed-221874">Renewable projects are getting built faster – but there's even more need for speed </a>
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<h2>Dealing with the climate risk</h2>
<p>First Nations people around the world are on the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652620306429?casa_token=AAadBFs9XWUAAAAA:eFX4w39-yt7SjqNVXgIbHF-bCGiHu-v4UyyEF6k7Fsl_wt85KdjFXkTYBGhvA6prSPD3DnU">frontline of climate change</a>. It threatens their homelands, food sources, cultural resources and ways of life.</p>
<p>First Nations have also experienced chronic under-investment in their energy infrastructure by governments over generations, both in <a href="https://theconversation.com/many-first-nations-communities-swelter-without-power-why-isnt-there-solar-on-every-rooftop-204032">Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629621002280">abroad</a>.</p>
<p>Investing in First Nations-led clean energy projects <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/22/9569">builds climate resilience</a>. This was demonstrated by the federal government’s Bushlight program, which ran from 2002 to 2013. It involved renewable energy systems installed in remote communities in the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland.</p>
<p>Bushlight’s solar power meant that communities were not dependent on the delivery of diesel. So they still had power if roads were closed by flooding or other climate disasters.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-aboriginal-communities-be-part-of-the-nsw-renewable-energy-transition-181171">How can Aboriginal communities be part of the NSW renewable energy transition?</a>
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<h2>Australia must get moving</h2>
<p>The Biden government’s Inflation Reduction Act prompted a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-eyes-over-14-bln-green-transformation-spending-govt-2023-08-23/">swift</a> <a href="https://www.esade.edu/faculty-research/sites/default/files/publicacion/pdf/2023-05/The%20EU%20Response%20to%20the%20U.S.%20Inflation%20Reduction%20Act.pdf">reaction</a> from governments around the world. But after 15 months, Australia is yet to respond or develop equivalent legislation. </p>
<p>We must urgently <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-pushed-to-create-100b-australian-inflation-reduction-act-20230907-p5e2y7">develop our response</a> and seize this unique opportunity to become world leaders in the global renewables race. That includes ensuring First Nations participate in and benefit from these developments.</p>
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<p><em>The First Nations Clean Energy Strategy consultation paper can be found <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-and-climate-change-ministerial-council/working-groups/first-nations-engagement-working-group/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy">here</a>. Feedback can be provided <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy-consultation-paper">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Fish volunteers research for the First Nations Clean Energy Network.
He received funding from the Digital Grid Future Institute at the University of New South Wales.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heidi Norman receives funding from Australian Research Council and James Martin Institute. </span></em></p>Australia lags the US and Canada when it comes to involving Indigenous people in projects on their land. With the growth of renewable energy we have an opportunity to make a fresh start.Adam Fish, Associate Professor, School of Arts and Media, UNSW SydneyHeidi Norman, Professor, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214662024-02-07T21:17:33Z2024-02-07T21:17:33ZEndangered by the 49th Parallel: How political boundaries inhibit effective conservation<p>Canada is wasting scarce resources conserving species that are not endangered elsewhere.</p>
<p>Some Canadian scientists advocate for conservation efforts to focus on species unique to this country, while others argue for a more global focus. However, most ignore the fact that the U.S. – Canada border creates endangered species.</p>
<p>Scientists preserve their objectivity by excluding politics from their research. The truth is, however, that conservation science can’t help being geopolitical. We must consider the global context when designing Canadian endangered species, and biodiversity, protections.</p>
<h2>Time for a chat about Chats</h2>
<p>Take the <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Yellow-breasted_Chat/id">Yellow-breasted Chat</a>, a <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Canada_Warbler/overview">charismatic warbler</a> <a href="https://wildlife-species.canada.ca/bird-status/oiseau-bird-eng.aspx?sY=2019&sL=e&sB=YBCH&sM=p1">listed as Endangered under the (Canadian) federal Species at Risk Act (SARA)</a>. The Canadian fragment of the Southern Mountain subspecies survives in a handful of sites in B.C. along the Okanagan and Similkameen rivers. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.registrelep-sararegistry.gc.ca/virtual_sara/files/plans/rs_yellow-breasted_chat_auricollis_southern_mountain_pop_e_final.pdf">2014 federal Action Plan estimated</a> the entire B.C. population to be 170 <a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/breeding-pair">breeding pairs</a>. According to the <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22722057/138772425">International Union for Conservation (IUCN) Red List</a>, though, the global population is around 17 million across North America. </p>
<p>As a result the Chat’s status is “least concern”, the lowest in the IUCN ranking.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bird sings on a branch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574129/original/file-20240207-26-6mn8al.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Yellow-breasted Chat is found throughout the U.S. and Canada, with the majority populations found in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>The federal Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/species-risk-public-registry/cosewic-assessments-status-reports/yellow-breasted-chat-2011.html">says</a> the Southern Mountain subspecies “occurs at the northern edge of its range in Canada” as a peripheral to the huge American core population. </p>
<p>In other words, the Yellow-breasted Chat is listed as endangered in Canada because, in 1846, the British accepted that the <a href="https://canadiangeographic.ca/articles/the-49th-parallel-our-defining-line/">border with the U.S. should lie at the 49th parallel</a>. </p>
<h2>Endangered, or not?</h2>
<p>The question then is, should conservation efforts be dedicated to tiny Canadian populations of otherwise healthy species? </p>
<p><a href="https://soscp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Yellow-breasted-Chat.pdf">Elder Richard Armstrong’s traditional story</a> illuminates why the Chat, which his people call xʷaʔɬqʷiləm’ (whaa-th-quil lem), matters to the transboundary Nsyilxcən speaking Peoples. This story is an example of the cultural values that always <a href="https://doi.org/10.7208/9780226358338-006">shape</a> conservation laws, both in Canada and around the world, and which provide good reasons for legal protection even of treasured peripheral populations. The First Nation’s special care for the Chat, in turn, makes it more likely that COSEWIC’s listing will help. </p>
<p>Not in every case, though. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/h13010038">our recent study</a> on the conservation status of transboundary mammal species in Canada and the U.S., Cardiff University doctoral student Sarah Raymond, Sarah Perkins from the School of Biosciences at Cardiff University, and I, found just six species — including the polar bear, wood bison and two species of right whale — were listed by both COSEWIC and U.S. authorities. </p>
<p>Of 20 transboundary species listed in just one country, 17 were listed only in Canada. Fourteen of those were, like the chat, ‘Least Concern’ globally, while just one bat species, Myotis lucifugus, was universally assessed as endangered. </p>
<p>Other research supports our findings. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12430">recent study found</a> that 22 per cent of those species that straddled the U.S.-Canada border were only protected on one side – almost always in Canada. The authors, though, take it for granted that peripheral populations deserve to have high conservation status. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.03.001">study scored</a> 729 COSEWIC-listed species, subspecies and <a href="https://biologydictionary.net/population/">populations</a> to assess the global context of these conservation measures. The study questions the fact that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In many cases, … subspecies units (e.g. twelve kinds of caribou) and peripheral populations of globally secure species are being given high priority, while endemic and globally endangered species are neglected.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sometimes isolated populations, like the <a href="https://a100.gov.bc.ca/pub/eswp/esr.do?id=17481">fishers</a> of the Columbia region, are valued because they are genetically distinctive, but these should be rare exceptions. Instead, Canada has so many peripheral populations marooned on the wrong side of the border that Fred Bunnell, a UBC forest ecologist, named the phenomenon <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/plants-animals-and-ecosystems/species-ecosystems-at-risk/species-at-risk-documents/cf_primer.pdf">“jurisdictional rarity.”</a> Bunnell argued that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Efforts to conserve species that are locally rare but globally common often ignore the ecologically marginal nature of habitat and population. They engage in a fight with nature.” </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Overcoming jurisdictional rarity</h2>
<p>I live in one of the skinny fragments of shrub steppe that snake up from the Columbia plateau in the U.S. through Osoyoos to Kamloops — an area which seems purpose-built for jurisdictional rarity. </p>
<p>Take the burrowing owl, a ground-nesting raptor with a vexed facial expression. </p>
<p>The bird, <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/plants-animals-and-ecosystems/species-ecosystems-at-risk/brochures/burrowing_owl.pdf">while protected in B.C. since 2004</a>, is mostly absent from the province. Meanwhile, the IUCN’s <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22689353/93227732">range map</a> for the burrowing owl (Least Concern), stretches from Alberta to Argentina. </p>
<p>B.C. has <a href="https://www.burrowingowlbc.org/">spent considerable resources reintroducing</a> the owl within the province. Ecologists might defend its role as a grasslands predator, and British Columbians might, given the choice, like to have the charming bird species thrive in the province. However, this choice, which is arguably ‘a fight with nature’, is never presented as a political one. </p>
<p>Public information about endangered species dodges jurisdictional rarity, leaving decisions to scientists and bureaucrats. </p>
<h2>Reframing the conversation</h2>
<p>Ontario’s Endangered Species Act (OESA) was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12483">lauded by conservationists</a> because, unlike SARA, it gave scientists the power to impose automatic listing with no political interference. </p>
<p>Doug Ford’s government defanged OESA with its <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-42/session-1/bill-108">More Homes, More Choice Act in 2019</a>, though it did include a sensible requirement that the Committee on the Status of Species at Risk in Ontario (COSSARO) consider jurisdictional rarity.</p>
<p>Scientists opposed to Ford’s pandering to property developers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2020-0064">want the legislation restored to its former glory</a>, meaning COSSARO would list species “based on their status solely in Ontario, as was formerly done.” But why? </p>
<p>Over-listing shouldn’t be a partisan issue. Scientists may feel protective towards Canadian populations they know and love, but citizens won’t want limited resources wasted on conservation of un-endangered species. Scientific and political processes <a href="https://sierraclub.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/Species-at-risk-Recovery-Report-Brief_0.pdf">gummed up</a> with peripheral species make it less likely that critically imperilled species will be saved. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/environmental-laws-in-canada-fall-short-of-addressing-the-ongoing-biodiversity-crisis-162983">Environmental laws in Canada fall short of addressing the ongoing biodiversity crisis</a>
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<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2018-0042">Some biologists claim</a> that effective conservation needs tough laws that put scientists alone in charge of listing and protection (on public land, at least). I would argue, though, that legitimacy, not coercive power, is the most precious commodity in conservation. </p>
<p>Social science research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.11.014">shows that most Canadians, regardless of background, want species protected</a>, yet their support — vital in a vast nation like Canada — is fragile. It <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26269957">depends on a belief</a> that listing processes are democratically legitimate, and that listed species deserve protection. </p>
<p>Where good reasons exist to protect peripheral species, those arguments should be public and open to debate. </p>
<p>My field — environmental humanities — is generally better at asking awkward questions than proposing solutions. In this case, though, I have a simple recommendation: new conservation laws, such as B.C. is <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/biodiversity-habitat-management/draft_biodiversity_and_ecosystem_health_framework.pdf">considering</a>, should require that peripheral species be identified transparently, using agreed definitions, as ‘endangered in B.C.’, or ‘threatened in Canada’. If it does, I would vote for conservation of Okanagan chats regardless.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221466/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Garrard's research is funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, grant no. 435-2020-1220. Sarah Raymond's research visit to UBC Okanagan was funded by UKRI-MITACS Globalink. </span></em></p>Canada is wasting resources, and legitimacy, conserving species that are not endangered elsewhere. Transparent cross-border considerations should inform all new conservation laws.Greg Garrard, Professor of Environmental Humanities, Faculty of Creative and Critical Studies, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212972024-02-01T17:04:20Z2024-02-01T17:04:20Z3 years on from coup, economic sanctions look unlikely to push Myanmar back to democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572880/original/file-20240201-21-z6rg6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C377%2C4427%2C2551&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sanctions have failed to prevent Myanmar's military from obtaining hardware.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/military-hardware-is-displayed-during-a-parade-to-celebrate-news-photo/1249572841?adppopup=true">STR/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/myanmar-news-protests-coup.html">Myanmar’s military seized back control</a> of the country in February 2021 after a decade-long democratic interlude, the international community reached for a familiar tool: economic sanctions.</p>
<p>The coup led several countries, <a href="https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-information/burma">including the United States</a> and <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/12/11/myanmar-burma-council-adds-4-persons-and-2-entities-to-eu-sanctions-list-in-eighth-round-of-sanctions/#:%7E:text=The%20Council%20has%20imposed%20restrictive,February%20and%2020%20July%202023.">European Union member states</a>, to impose or reinstate trade embargoes and other financial proscriptions against Myanmar’s military.</p>
<p>On Feb. 1, 2024 – coinciding with the third anniversary of the military coup – the U.S. <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/us-marks-anniversary-of-myanmar-coup-with-new-sanctions/7465629.html">announced a fresh round of sanctions</a>. It comes as the Myanmar government continues to be embroiled in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/military-violence-in-myanmar-is-worsening-amid-fierce-resistance-and-international-ambivalence-203646">grinding civil war</a> with <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/burma-myanmar/could-myanmar-come-apart">ethnic minority insurgent groups</a>. But to date, sanctions have not encouraged the ruling generals back toward a democratic path or tipped the war in favor of pro-democratic resistance groups.</p>
<p>Moreover, as experts on <a href="https://cnwillis.com/">East and Southeast Asia</a> and <a href="https://poliscikeith.com/">economic sanctions</a>, we know that the history of Myanmar – and our own research – suggests that economics sanctions are unlikely to have that impact any time soon.</p>
<h2>Current sanctions against Myanmar</h2>
<p>The current sanctions against Myanmar share much in common with those imposed prior to 2010, when the country began a <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/battle-democracy-myanmar_en?s=110">process to restore democratic government</a>. The actions taken since 2021 by the U.S., EU and others – which include targeted and sector-specific sanctions – are aimed at undermining the military junta’s ability to <a href="https://www.state.gov/sanctions-against-the-myanma-oil-and-gas-enterprise-and-concerted-pressure-with-partners/">violently repress the country’s pro-democracy movement</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="6JbEj" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6JbEj/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>At the same time, those imposing sanctions appear to be more cognizant than in previous periods of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2013.764581">potential negative impacts on the Burmese people</a>.</p>
<p>The sanctions imposed after the 2021 coup are more targeted and designed to affect the military government and its enterprises. In earlier periods, the <a href="https://poliscikeith.com/">financial measures were broader</a> and affected the entire Myanmar economy.</p>
<p>This is by design. The legal basis for post-2021 U.S. economic sanctions on Myanmar, <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/02/12/2021-03139/blocking-property-with-respect-to-the-situation-in-burma">Executive Order 14014</a>, serves as the foundation for a multitude of targeted measures, which include restrictions on individuals and businesses connected to supplying Myanmar’s air force with jet fuel. </p>
<p>Signed on Feb. 11, 2023, the new U.S. sanctions regime reflects changes in how the <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Treasury-2021-sanctions-review.pdf">Biden Administration intends</a> to use financial penalties to target Myanmar’s generals, not its people. </p>
<p>The U.S. has also made it a priority to work collaboratively with international partners on imposing complementary rather than competing sanctions.</p>
<p>Evidence of this coordination emerged <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-promotes-accountability-for-human-rights-violations-and-abuses/">on Dec. 10, 2021</a>, coinciding with <a href="https://www.un.org/en/observances/human-rights-day">Human Rights Day</a>, with the U.S. rolling out a package of measures in conjunction with the United Kingdom, Canada and the European Union. For example, the EU’s “<a href="https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures_en">restrictive measures</a>” – the bloc’s parlance for economic sanctions – include many of the same sanctions imposed by the U.S., such as restrictions on the export of military and dual-use equipment, asset freezes, visa and travel restrictions, and restrictions on the export of telecommunications equipment.</p>
<p>The U.S. has also imposed targeted sanctions via the <a href="https://ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/topic/1631">Specially Designated Nationals list</a>, a blacklist of people with whom U.S. citizens and firms are banned from doing business. Listed entities in Myanmar include military leaders, business people and their families. The idea is to focus the economic pain on individuals and entities involved in the coup and subsequent repression of democracy campaigners, rather than on the country as a whole.</p>
<h2>Past sanctions against Myanmar</h2>
<p>Certainly, history suggests that the U.S. needed to update its sanctions policy. Myanmar observers have long debated the effectiveness of the old Myanmar sanctions regime, with <a href="https://www.newmandala.org/busting-myth-myanmar-sanctions-success-story/">many concluding</a> that it had little impact on the junta’s decision to return to democracy. Rather, Myanmar’s democratic elections <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2013.764581">were part of the military’s road map</a> and not the result of sanctions pressure.</p>
<p>One reason for this skepticism over earlier sanctions was that they targeted imports from key sectors of Myanmar’s economy, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/9797/chapter-abstract/157012800?redirectedFrom=fulltext">such as garments and textiles</a>, that were not connected to the junta. These economic sanctions harmed private enterprises in Myanmar.</p>
<p>The latest sanctions <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0078?_gl=1*1mmoid*_gcl_au*MTYyMjQ3ODI3OC4xNzA1MDgyMDky">target military-owned or -linked enterprises</a>, such as Myanma Economic Holdings Public Company, Myanmar Economic Corporation Limited, Myanma Gems Enterprise, Myanma Timber Enterprise and the Myanmar Pearl Enterprise. </p>
<p>The post-2021 sanctions, though, are still plagued by some of the same problems of their predecessors. </p>
<p>They lack the weight of the United Nations, which has not called for sanctions against Myanmar. This stands in contrast to sanctions against other countries flouting international norms, like <a href="https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-north-korea-sanctions/">North Korea</a> and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/international-sanctions-iran">Iran</a>. </p>
<p>The U.N. Security Council is <a href="https://theconversation.com/sanctions-against-myanmars-junta-have-been-tried-before-can-they-work-this-time-158054">unlikely to sanction Myanmar</a> as permanent members <a href="https://apnews.com/article/un-myanmar-military-killing-rights-suu-kyi-029f8503bf1eb6ec0e97e8521775184a">China and Russia refuse to condemn</a>, let alone sanction, Myanmar’s military rulers.</p>
<p>As a result, the international community has been split in its response to Myanmar’s democratic backsliding and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2023/country-chapters/myanmar">human rights violations</a>. While Western countries have decided to isolate Myanmar through targeted trade and financial sanctions, countries in East and Southeast Asia have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02185370600832497">maintained diplomatic and trade ties</a> with the military government. </p>
<p>And there is an incentive for countries in Southeast Asia to not take part in any sanction regime. As we show in our forthcoming book, “<a href="https://poliscikeith.com/">Trading with Pariahs</a>,” Myanmar’s trade ties tend to be strongest within its region. </p>
<p>During the first sanctions regime from 1988 to 2015, Southeast Asian economic ties with Myanmar became stronger as the country’s trade with sanctions-imposing Western states declined. </p>
<p>For countries in East and Southeast Asia, maintaining ties with Myanmar provided not only economic opportunities but also a strategy for monitoring and perhaps ameliorating Myanmar’s internal situation. For example, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, <a href="https://asean.org/asean-10-meeting-the-challenges-by-termsak-chalermpalanupap/">admitted Myanmar</a> in 1997 despite the refusal of the junta to allow democratic elections and address human rights abuses. The approach favored by Myanmar’s neighbors was to try and bring Myanmar’s generals in from the cold rather than ostracizing them internationally.</p>
<p>And despite Singapore’s recent declaration that it <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/06/22/whats-next-for-sanctions-on-myanmar/">will stop arms transfers to Myanmar</a>, ASEAN member countries and those in East Asia continue to refrain from sanctioning Myanmar, preferring engagement to isolation.</p>
<h2>Can sanctions work?</h2>
<p>While U.S. sanctions have the potential to hurt the military, there are reasons to believe that they won’t be able to bring the government to its knees. It is likely that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221087080">uneven termination of the United States’ earlier sanctions</a> provided insufficient time for American firms to fully engage and invest in Myanmar’s market, limiting the potential for future leverage now.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Men in uniform take part in a military parade." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572854/original/file-20240201-23-vx77gs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C276%2C5241%2C3228&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572854/original/file-20240201-23-vx77gs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572854/original/file-20240201-23-vx77gs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572854/original/file-20240201-23-vx77gs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572854/original/file-20240201-23-vx77gs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572854/original/file-20240201-23-vx77gs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572854/original/file-20240201-23-vx77gs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Myanmar’s military are bogged down in civil war, but not yielding to sanctions pressure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MyanmarUSSanctions/8798420feac44ad88a7359ff1e70a23f/photo?Query=myanmar%20sanctions&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=346&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Aung Shine Oo</a></span>
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<p>Those countries that do have significant leverage are unlikely to sanction Myanmar. And this undermines efforts by the U.S. or the West to isolate the country. </p>
<p>The challenge for the West can be seen in its sanctions on jet fuel trade. Amnesty International’s “<a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/03/myanmar-new-shipments-of-aviation-fuel-revealed-despite-the-militarys-war-crimes/">Deadly Cargo” report in 2023</a> highlighted how Myanmar’s military can still secure reliable shipments of jet fuel despite the U.S. sanctions on the product.</p>
<p>The reason is more than 95% of Myanmar’s refined petroleum oils – needed for jet fuel – come from regional trading partners. Since 2021, China, Thailand, Singapore and Russia have <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/11/myanmar-amnesty-aviation-fuel/">provided much of the Myanmar’s military’s jet fuel</a>, enabling it to continue bombing campaigns throughout the country.</p>
<p>Even though the U.S. Treasury <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1701?_gl=1*nc1bho*_gcl_au*MTYyMjQ3ODI3OC4xNzA1MDgyMDky">has expanded its sanctions on jet fuel</a> to include both military and commercial, the impact of these sector-wide sanctions remains unclear. </p>
<p>While the nature of the current U.S. sanctions is starkly different from prior efforts to pressure Myanmar’s generals, the effectiveness and potential for success appear quite similar. Given the dearth of economic ties between Myanmar and countries outside its region, the potential for change in Myanmar seems unlikely without significant efforts by those countries with an ability to weaponize their extensive economic interdependence: China, Japan and ASEAN member states. </p>
<p>ASEAN is not blind to the erosion of human rights, and it has signaled its awareness of the regime’s atrocities and support for civilians by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/06/myanmar-wont-be-allowed-to-lead-asean-in-2026-in-blow-to-generals.html">denying Myanmar its turn as ASEAN’s chair in 2026</a>. </p>
<p>However, the regional bloc is unlikely to impose economic sanctions on Myanmar in the foreseeable future, casting further doubt on the ability of Western sanctions to improve human rights and democracy meaningfully.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Economic proscriptions by the US and EU are hampered by lack of support among Myanmar’s major trading partners in the region.Charmaine N. Willis, Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science, Skidmore CollegeKeith A. Preble, Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science, Miami UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221732024-01-29T16:38:10Z2024-01-29T16:38:10ZNasa’s Mars helicopter Ingenuity has ended its mission – its success paves the way for more flying vehicles on other planets and moons<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571847/original/file-20240129-15-v0glwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2270%2C1360&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Ingenuity helicopter on Mars.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mars.nasa.gov/resources/27421/ingenuity-at-two-years-on-mars/">NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU/MSSS</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is difficult to emphasise the significance of the milestone surpassed by Nasa’s Mars helicopter, Ingenuity. </p>
<p>The little (1.8kg) helicopter <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/resources/25608/nasas-perseverance-rover-lands-successfully-on-mars/">touched down with the Perseverance rover in 2021</a>. On 25 January, Nasa announced that the flying vehicle <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/after-three-years-on-mars-nasas-ingenuity-helicopter-mission-ends/">had to perform an emergency landing</a> which damaged one of its rotors and ended its mission. </p>
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<p>This reminds us that space exploration is still difficult to do. But Ingenuity’s three years on Mars proved that powered, controlled flight on Mars was possible. </p>
<p>The little helicopter lasted for far longer than had been planned and flew higher and further than many had envisaged. Beyond this Martian experiment, the rotorcraft’s success paves the way for other missions using flying vehicles to explore planets and moons.</p>
<p>The first landings on the Moon were static. The year 1969 was probably the most important one for space exploration, when <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission/apollo-11/">Apollo 11</a> and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission/apollo-12/">Apollo 12</a> brought astronauts to the lunar surface, but 1970 was the year for planetary exploration. </p>
<p>In 1970, we had the <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=1970-060A">first soft landing on another planet</a>, Venus. The first robotic sample delivered to Earth from the Moon. And the first robot rover to drive around another body (also the Moon). </p>
<p>Since then, following over 50 years of planetary exploration and technology development, there have only been a small number of successful surface missions, and even fewer were able to move. Venus was visited by a dozen static landers between 1970 and 1985, and never again. </p>
<h2>From rovers to helicopters</h2>
<p>Mars was only successfully landed on three times between 1971 and 1976 before the <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/mars-exploration/missions/pathfinder/">Pathfinder lander</a> and Sojourner rover arrived in 1997. The European Huygens spacecraft then landed on Titan, the moon of Saturn, in 2005. </p>
<p>These attempts at reaching the surface are rare, extremely difficult, and, historically, the landers were hardly ever mobile. Yet the Nasa <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/mer/mission/overview/">Mars rovers Spirit, Opportunity</a>, <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msl/home/">Curiosity</a>, and <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/">Perseverance</a> have all exceeded their designs and travelled further and further.</p>
<p>And Ingenuity flew.</p>
<p>It wasn’t the first spacecraft to fly. Those would be the balloons deployed by the <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=1984-128F">Soviet Vega 1 and 2 missions</a>, which floated over Venus in 1985. But Ingenuity had control, cameras, and connectivity. It took photos of its rover and of Mars from an entirely new perspective. It commanded the world’s attention and captured our hearts.</p>
<p>In Moscow, I had the chance to see models and replicas of the Vega balloons and the first lunar rover. They made a stronger impression on me than the Mars rover twins being used at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in California. The Soviet missions were more audacious and different, and they were from generations ago, before my time and long before my career as a planetary scientist.</p>
<p>Ingenuity was audacious, original and completely new. The photos it took, of Perseverance, finding technology discarded from the descent module that carried it down to Mars and of the Martian vistas from a bird’s eye view, were breathtaking. Meanwhile, Perseverance also took videos of Ingenuity flying in the air. Nothing like it had ever seen before.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="CGI image of a silver drone with eight propellers over the Martian surface" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An artist’s impression of the Dragonfly spacecraft in flight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://dragonfly.jhuapl.edu/Gallery/">NASA/Johns Hopkins APL/Steve Gribben</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Future flights</h2>
<p>Ingenuity had a rough ride getting there, however. The entire Mars 2020 mission (of Perseverance, Ingenuity and their transport systems) was sudden. </p>
<p>Following Nasa’s withdrawal from the joint European Space Agency ExoMars programme, which included a Mars rover mission, the US space agency started developing one on its own. This rover, later named Perseverance, went from announcement to concept to development and launch in just seven-and-a-half years.</p>
<p>And Ingenuity wasn’t included onboard at first. As an idea, it was proposed late in the development phase of Mars 2020, and faced serious opposition. It added extra complexity, cost, risk and new failure modes. It was also driven by an engineering objective, with the possibility of a little outreach – the opportunity to communicate the mission’s science and engineering to the public – on the side.</p>
<p>Ingenuity wasn’t intended to last for very long. It was designed to prove helicopter flight in the thin Mars atmosphere. It targeted five short flights over a month. Possible outcomes included hard landings, toppling over, losing power if its solar panels were covered in dust, or losing communication when it was far from the rover (this happened several times). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Large silver balloon being launched in the desert." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aerial robotic balloons, or aerobots, like this Nasa prototype, could one day explore Venus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/jpls-venus-aerial-robotic-balloon-prototype-aces-test-flights">Nasa / JPL-Caltech</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it went way beyond expectations, surviving three years on the Martian surface, even through a dusty season, and making 72 flights. Much of its success was aided by the communication network that now exists at Mars. </p>
<p>Ingenuity receives instructions and transmits data to Perseverance, which communicates with a fleet of satellites that include the European ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter, Nasa’s Maven spacecraft, and the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. These, in turn, communicate with two deep space networks on Earth, systems of radio antennas around the world that command and track spacecraft. </p>
<p>It took 50 years of planetary exploration to get here, but already we can see the impact on future exploration that Ingenuity’s mission is having. The next interplanetary rotorcraft will be the <a href="https://dragonfly.jhuapl.edu/">Dragonfly mission to Saturn’s moon Titan</a>. </p>
<p>It will be a very different from Ingenuity. It will weigh about a ton and fly with eight rotors. It is a huge vehicle designed to fly in Titan’s thick atmosphere. </p>
<p>One of the next Red Planet missions will be Mars Sample Return, aiming to collect sample containers of Martian soil being prepared and cached by Perseverance. This has been planned to be carried out with use of a rover, but the success of Ingenuity has led to the idea – and now the development – of <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msr/spacecraft/sample-recovery-helicopters/">a helicopter</a> to do that. </p>
<p>The future that Ingenuity has opened up for us is exciting. We’ll see helicopters on Mars and Venus, more balloons on Venus, swimming vehicles under the icy moons of Jupiter and Saturn, and maybe even an aeroplane or two.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222173/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Olsen in an employee of the University of Oxford and receives funding from the UK Space Agency in support of Mars science.</span></em></p>Among the missions being planned is a huge helicopter drone to explore Saturn’s moon Titan.Kevin Olsen, UKSA Mars Science Fellow, Department of Physics, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2216962024-01-29T13:08:07Z2024-01-29T13:08:07ZNiger and Russia are forming military ties: 3 ways this could upset old allies<p>In July 2023, Niger’s military took over in <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-the-coup-in-niger-an-expert-outlines-three-driving-factors-210721">a coup</a> just two years after the country’s first transition to civilian power. The coup has brought into sharp focus the role of foreign countries in Niger’s politics.</p>
<p>Before the coup, France and the US were the <a href="https://www.gmfus.org/news/coup-niger">main security allies</a> of Niger. But the coup leaders, led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, were open about their antagonism to France, the country’s former colonial ruler, and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/12/25/niger-suspends-cooperation-with-international-francophone-body">ordered the French military to leave</a>.</p>
<p>Now the attention of many people in Niger has shifted to Russia.</p>
<p>Since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-the-coup-in-niger-an-expert-outlines-three-driving-factors-210721">coup</a>, several analysts have <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/niger-russia-sahel/a-66494597">highlighted</a> the role of Russia. Some analysts and regional experts believe Russia might have played a role <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4135841-the-niger-coup-exposes-russias-grand-strategy-for-africa/">directly or indirectly</a> in the military takeover. </p>
<p>Others (including myself) <a href="https://theconversation.com/scramble-for-the-sahel-why-france-russia-china-and-the-united-states-are-interested-in-the-region-219130">argue</a> that Russia is increasing its grip on the country and actively seeking to benefit from the coup. This was evident when Russia and Niger recently <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-niger-agree-develop-military-ties-moscow-says-2024-01-16/">agreed</a> to develop military ties. </p>
<p>Although the details of this partnership are still sketchy, Russia promised to increase the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-niger-agree-develop-military-ties-moscow-says-2024-01-16/">“combat readiness”</a> of Niger’s military. In addition, there are discussions to partner in the areas of agriculture and energy. </p>
<p>I have been <a href="https://www.leedsbeckett.ac.uk/staff/dr-olayinka-ajala/">researching</a> the security dynamics of the region for over a decade. The Niger junta’s romance with Russia has potential implications for peace and security in the region and beyond. </p>
<p>I have identified three main potential implications for Niger and other allied countries:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>escalation of tensions between Niger and France</p></li>
<li><p>discontent between Niger and its regional allies</p></li>
<li><p>likely disruption of a <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/648851468123254494/pdf/957770PID0P1500Box391429B00PUBLIC0.pdf#page=3">US$13 billion</a> gas pipeline project from Nigeria to the European Union through Niger.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Russia in the region</h2>
<p>After the 2023 coup, France and the regional economic bloc Ecowas <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/ecowas-threatens-use-of-force-against-niger-junta/a-66398008">threatened</a> to use force to reinstate the deposed president. </p>
<p>Russia <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66478430">warned</a> against such a move. </p>
<p>The military junta then expelled French soldiers. France responded by closing its embassy in Niger. </p>
<p>The US also reduced its military and economic cooperation. Washington cut aid to the country by more than <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231010-france-turns-a-page-as-troops-begin-leaving-coup-hit-niger">US$500 million</a> and removed the country from its <a href="https://credendo.com/en/knowledge-hub/usas-removal-uganda-niger-gabon-and-central-african-republic-agoa-has-only-limited">duty free export</a> programme. </p>
<p>The European Union also <a href="https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/eu-adopts-new-niger-sanctions-framework/">instituted sanctions</a>. Niger then cancelled its security and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20231127-niger-junta-revokes-anti-migration-law-in-setback-to-eu-strategy">migration agreements</a> with the European bloc.</p>
<p>Ecowas <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/west-african-bloc-maintains-sanctions-against-niger/3079035">sanctioned</a> Niger. Another major ally, Nigeria, <a href="https://www.channelstv.com/2023/08/03/coup-nigeria-cuts-off-power-supply-to-niger-republic/">cut electricity</a> and instituted further sanctions. </p>
<p>The sanctions, coupled with an increase in insecurity, weakened and isolated Niger. </p>
<p>Rather than budge, the junta looked for alternative partners – like Russia and China. It also recently joined Mali and Burkina Faso to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68122947">announce a withdrawal</a> from Ecowas. </p>
<p>For its part, Russia was positioning itself as a reliable ally. In December 2023, a <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/12/04/russian-officials-visit-niger-to-strengthen-military-ties/">Russian delegation visited Niger</a> and in January 2024, Niger’s Prime Minister Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-niger-agree-develop-military-ties-moscow-says-2024-01-16/">visited Moscow</a> to discuss military and economic ties. </p>
<p>Russia is no stranger to the region. Over the last three years it has set up <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/28/russia-s-growing-footprint-in-africa-s-sahel-region-pub-89135">security arrangements</a> with the juntas running Niger’s neighbours: Mali and Burkina Faso. This has been done through the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877">Wagner group</a>, a private security company supported by Russia, whose operations in Africa were renamed <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2023/12/17/africa-corps-russia-s-sahel-presence-rebranded_6352317_124.html">Africa Corps</a> in early 2024. </p>
<p>Russian military advisers have been operating in Mali since 2021. In addition, the <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/28/russia-s-growing-footprint-in-africa-s-sahel-region-pub-89135">Wagner group has 400 mercenaries</a> in the country. Russia also <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2022/08/10/mali-gets-more-military-equipment-from-russia/">delivered military hardware</a> to the country in 2022. </p>
<h2>Implications</h2>
<p>There are three main potential implications for Niger and other allied countries. </p>
<p>First, a potential escalation of tensions between Niger and France. This will happen if Niger grants Russia uranium exploration rights that affect French companies with existing licences. Niger <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-24/top-uranium-producer-niger-launches-mining-sector-overhaul?leadSource=uverify%20wall&embedded-checkout=true">has suspended new mining licences</a> and is currently auditing existing ones. This could affect French companies. France has <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/france-emmanuel-macron-warn-attack-embassy-niger/">vowed</a> to protect its economic interests in Niger. </p>
<p>It depends on how the partnership between Russia and Niger develops, in particular how Niger intends to pay for its share of any military cooperation. If this involves the Wagner group, as is the case in security partnerships between Russia and Burkina Faso and Mali, the issue of <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/03/the-wagner-groups-playbook-in-africa-mali/">mining concessions</a> will come into play. Mali and Burkina Faso have paid for Wagner’s involvement by <a href="https://adf-magazine.com/2023/03/a-heavy-price-to-pay-2/">offering</a> mining concessions in return for arms, ammunition and mercenaries. </p>
<p>Second, any security tie involving the Wagner group would create further discontent between Niger and its regional allies, especially Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon. </p>
<p>Following the coup, Niger announced it was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67605967">leaving</a> the G5 Sahel, which was set up to coordinate security operations in the Sahel. This has turned attention to the country’s participation in the <a href="https://mnjtffmm.org/">Multinational Joint Task Force</a>. </p>
<p>Both institutions were set up to fight insurgency in the region and Niger has been an active contributor. The other countries in the joint task force, such as Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Benin Republic, will be wary of working with Niger if it is in active partnership with Wagner, which is <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/massacres-executions-and-falsified-graves-wagner-groups-mounting-humanitarian-cost-mali">notorious</a> for human rights abuses.</p>
<p>The third likely major fallout from Russia’s involvement revolves around Niger’s relationship with the EU. The EU is currently constructing a <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/648851468123254494/pdf/957770PID0P1500Box391429B00PUBLIC0.pdf#page=3">US$13 billion</a> gas pipeline from Nigeria to the bloc through Niger. The pipeline project was designed to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian gas.</p>
<p>Based on Russia’s animosity with the EU, I believe Russia could use the security alliance to disrupt the project in order to secure its gas delivery to the EU. </p>
<p>The junta can use the pipeline project as leverage against the EU by demanding major financial concessions, putting the delivery of the project at risk and strengthening Russia’s position. </p>
<p>Migration is another area of contention when it comes to the EU. Niger now <a href="https://www.ewn.co.za/2024/01/24/nigers-gateway-to-the-desert-open-again-for-migrants-1">allows</a> mass illegal migration through its territory for onward journey to Europe. This will create more problems for the EU. </p>
<p>The active presence of Russia in Niger could change the security and economic landscape of the region and affect all parties. </p>
<p>I maintain my <a href="https://theconversation.com/niger-coup-ecowas-must-do-these-3-things-to-break-the-stalemate-212403">initial position</a> that rather than use force, the Niger junta should be encouraged to restore democracy as soon as possible. At the same time, some of the sanctions should be lifted to encourage dialogue and reduce the influence of Russia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221696/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Niger’s recent military romance with Russia could escalate tensions with France, regional allies and the European Union.Olayinka Ajala, Senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Leeds Beckett UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209852024-01-24T17:36:48Z2024-01-24T17:36:48ZEconomic crisis in Cuba: government missteps and tightening US sanctions are to blame<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571144/original/file-20240124-21-r3zh27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3840%2C2160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/villa-clara-cuba-april-25-2021-1969845346">Domitille P/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cuba is going through its worst economic crisis in 30 years. Since 2020, Cubans have suffered falling wages, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/06/cuba-health-education-workers-leaving">deteriorating public services</a>, regular power outages, severe shortages and a growing black market. Hundreds of thousands of people have <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters">fled the country</a>. </p>
<p>Some place the blame for this desperate situation at the door of the Cuban government and its mismanagement of the economy. Others point to the damage caused by longstanding US economic sanctions that, to varying degrees, have been in place since 1962.</p>
<p>But which of these is more true? Both have inflicted economic damage. The US has done so deliberately, while the Cuban government’s flawed policies spring from inertia and miscalculation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing Cuban annual GDP growing until 2019 before dramatically dropping." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cuban annual GDP growth, 2017–2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas e Información</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The case against the government</h2>
<p>In January 2021, the Cuban government introduced <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN28L0AA/">major currency and price reforms</a>. The reforms, which involved devaluing the Cuban peso from one to the US dollar to 24 per dollar, were supposed to begin a process of aligning Cuban prices with international markets. </p>
<p>The hope was that the move would incentivise economic restructuring and innovation to improve efficiency, reduce dependence on imported goods, and eventually stimulate exports.</p>
<p>But things did not turn out as planned. State sector salaries had been more than trebled in December 2020 to protect living standards in anticipation of price rises that would result from the higher cost of imports. However, this salary increase was quickly overtaken as higher costs and consumer spending power pushed up prices and started an inflationary spiral.</p>
<p>The rate of inflation has eased since then. But the official annual rate is still alarmingly high, at <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cubas-economy-still-shrinking-minister-says-2023-12-20/">around 30%</a> (more than twice the Latin American regional average). </p>
<p>The Caribbean has generally experienced strong <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/CBQ">post-pandemic economic recovery</a>. But Cuba’s national income remains well below its pre-COVID level and, with export earnings still depressed and import dependency unchecked, there is little sign that any restructuring has occurred. </p>
<h2>The effect of US sanctions</h2>
<p>The effect of US economic coercion is less obvious, but no less significant. Cuba has been under a US trade embargo for the past 60 years, but a new <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/travel/trump-cuba-travel-restrictions.html">stream of measures</a> was introduced under the presidency of Donald Trump (2017–21). Trump’s policies cut earnings from services, interrupted fuel supplies, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/because-trump-sanctions-western-union-remittances-come-end-cuba-n1248790">blocked remittances</a> and deterred foreign investment. </p>
<p>Growth was subdued and shortages were already starting to emerge in 2019. But the most devastating action came in January 2021. One of Trump’s final acts in office – occurring just days after the currency reform – was to <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2021/03/part-2-the-unlawful-basis-for-cubas-designation-as-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism/">add Cuba</a> to the US list of “state sponsors of terrorism”.</p>
<p>The effect of this has been huge. Interviews that I conducted with representatives of foreign companies doing business with Cuba and with Cuban officials responsible for managing international trade confirm that foreign businesses delayed payments and abruptly cancelled shipments of imports, export contracts and investment plans in the months that followed. </p>
<p>The resultant supply bottlenecks and loss of foreign exchange supercharged inflation, adding to frustration and uncertainty, and preventing recovery.</p>
<p>But perhaps Cuba’s greatest error was to give credence to Joe Biden’s rhetoric in his 2020 US election campaign. Biden spoke about Trump’s “failed Cuba policy” and <a href="https://www.democracyinamericas.org/timelineonbidenharriscubapolicy#:%7E:text=July%20%2D%20November%202020%3A%20As%20election,families.%E2%80%9D%20With%20regards%20to%20human">vowed</a> to reverse his “harmful” policies. If that had happened, a less tight foreign exchange constraint would have allowed some possibility of a positive supply response to the monetary reforms.</p>
<p>Despite his campaign promises, Biden has left Cuban sanctions in place. This has obstructed Cuba’s access to foreign exchange, putting the investment required for restructuring out of reach.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Donald Trump with his arms outstretched addressing a crowd at a rally." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump introduced a swathe of tough sanctions on Cuba.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/louisville-kentucky-march-20-2017-president-605507732">jctabb/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bad timing</h2>
<p>The pandemic has also contributed to Cuba’s economic turmoil. Cuba responded to COVID by closing its borders and imposing strict lockdowns. This resulted in a sharp economic contraction and a severe depletion of its foreign currency reserves.</p>
<p>The pandemic also had a dramatic impact on the world economy. High <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices?time=2016..latest">fuel</a> and <a href="https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">food</a> prices served to worsen Cuba’s foreign exchange shortage, and supplies were further disrupted by logistical bottlenecks and inflated shipping costs.</p>
<p>Cuba had actually performed <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-scene-from-cuba-how-its-getting-so-much-right-on-covid-19-155699">exceptionally well</a> in containing the virus throughout <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-response-why-cuba-is-such-an-interesting-case-135749">2020</a>. But a major shock came in 2021 when Cuba grappled with a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases">surge in cases</a> of a new COVID variant.</p>
<p>US sanctions blocked access to sources of COVID support that helped to ease hardships in other nations. As a result, the government had no choice but to cut investment and was unable to prevent the decline in real salaries. </p>
<h2>Looking for a way out of crisis</h2>
<p>Discontent fuelled by COVID restrictions and widespread shortages resulted in <a href="https://www.american.edu/centers/latin-american-latino-studies/cuba-after-the-july-11-protests-leogrande.cfm">protests</a>, revealing dissatisfaction with how Cuba’s leaders had responded to these challenges. Officials are seen as having been slow to fully acknowledge the government’s miscalculations or the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuban-communists-under-pressure-accelerate-economic-reforms-2021-04-14/">degree of hardship</a> that is being experienced by Cuban households.</p>
<p>As the rate of inflation gradually eases, the government is <a href="http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2023/12/27/proyecciones-del-gobierno-para-corregir-distorsiones-y-reimpulsar-la-economia-video/">starting to outline</a> a recovery strategy. With no end to US sanctions in sight, the focus is on reforming the economic system. </p>
<p>The reforms are wide-ranging, aimed at tackling the economic distortions and inertia inherited from decades of strict centralised control. They include a gradual reduction in price subsidies, more targeted welfare, improving the efficiency and responsiveness of state bureaucracy, and opening up to private businesses. </p>
<p>The aim is to stimulate innovation, boost investment and improve public services, which should eventually lift growth and boost living standards. </p>
<p>But the process of restructuring <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/cuba-announces-tough-economic-measures-cubans-brace-hardship-rcna130861">will be difficult</a>. There will be both winners and losers, and resistance to change is inevitable. The reform and recovery process also hinges on rebuilding the shaken confidence of the public and investors, as well as avoiding further external shocks – or deliberate blows from the US.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220985/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Morris has received funding from the British Embassy, Havana, and the Ford Foundation, and is Director of Caribbean Research and Innovation Collaboration for Knowledge Exchange and Transfer (CRICKET) Community Interest Company. </span></em></p>Cuba’s economy – saddled by US sanctions and ill-timed reforms – is in dire straits.Emily Morris, Research Associate, Institute of the Americas, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213922024-01-22T16:59:46Z2024-01-22T16:59:46ZWestern strikes against Houthis risk igniting a powderkeg in the Middle East<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/western-strikes-against-houthis-risk-igniting-a-powderkeg-in-the-middle-east" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The United States and the United Kingdom <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/us/politics/houthi-yemen-strikes.html">are launching ongoing missile and drone strikes</a> against the Yemeni armed group Ansarallah, commonly known as the Houthis. A faction in the ongoing Yemen civil war, the Houthis had been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/21/world/middleeast/houthi-hijack-ship-galaxy-leader.html">attacking ships</a> in the Red Sea in the months preceding the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-houthis-yemen-shipping-attacks-fc5c1ed40f4e370bed81670bfdda0899">U.S.-British strikes.</a></p>
<p>These kinds of strikes, however, don’t dissuade the Houthis, a predominately Shia minority group in Yemen. They’re continuing <a href="https://time.com/6563864/us-strikes-houthis-yemen-red-sea/">to attack ships in the region</a>.</p>
<p>Continuing to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen, furthermore, will undoubtedly escalate tensions in the Middle East. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67614911">The Houthis have said</a> they’re attacking ships affiliated with Israel in response to Israel’s ground invasion and blockade of the Gaza Strip.</p>
<p>With the U.S. reputation in the region already in tatters amid mass opposition to Israel’s attack on Gaza, these strikes are creating unintended consequences.</p>
<h2>Yemen’s civil war</h2>
<p>The Yemen civil war is one of the world’s most protracted conflicts. It officially started in 2014 when the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-29380668">Houthis seized the capital of Sana'a</a>, but multiple entities have become involved since then.</p>
<p>Most notably, Saudi Arabia’s intervention in the conflict and subsequent blockade <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/middleeast/yemen-famine-saudi-fuel-intl/index.html">helped create ongoing famine and food insecurity</a> in Yemen.</p>
<p>Since the outset of Yemen’s civil war, the Houthis have received Iranian support. For both ideological and geopolitical reasons, Iran has helped the Houthis in their efforts to seize the country. While Iran has continually denied claims that it <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/21/iran-giving-houthis-significant-and-lethal-support-us-envoy">provides military aid</a> to the Houthis, most <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/22/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news#iran-has-helped-the-houthi-militia-target-ships-us-intelligence-says">outside observers</a> agree that it has done so in the past and continues to now.</p>
<p>The Houthis are invaluable partners to Iran because of their position along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This narrow channel is responsible for a significant portion of the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/bab-al-mandan-red-sea-suez-shipping-crisis-houthis-gaza">world’s cargo</a> <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41073">and oil</a> shipping. While most vessels can avoid the region by sailing around Africa, this detour <a href="https://time.com/6553141/red-sea-houthi-attacks-consumer-prices-cost/">increases costs</a> for shipowners and, by extension, consumers.</p>
<p>The Houthis, either acting in their own interests or for Iran, escalated their attacks against ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Israel’s attack on Gaza. Outside of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-houthi-rebels-hijacked-ship-red-sea-dc9b6448690bcf5c70a0baf7c7c34b09">one cargo ship</a> the Houthi seized in November, however, their attacks have been <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/first-images-released-houthi-damage-153119479.html">largely unsuccessful</a>.</p>
<h2>More time needed for anti-piracy efforts</h2>
<p>Piracy in maritime shipping is not a new phenomenon <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv21r3j8m">and has been a persistent scourge throughout human history</a>. In contemporary history, however, multilateral efforts to combat piracy have been largely successful in limiting its impact. </p>
<p>Multinational efforts off the <a href="https://theconversation.com/somali-piracy-once-an-unsolvable-security-threat-has-almost-completely-stopped-heres-why-213872">coast of Somalia</a> and in the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20171107012031/http://maritimesecurity.asia/free-2/piracy-2/drastic-drop-in-piracy-in-malacca-straits/">Malacca Strait</a> in southeast Asia significantly reduced the piracy threat in those regions.</p>
<p>Given the past success of such measures, American Defense Secretary <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/19/1220216698/pentagon-announces-new-international-maritime-protection-force-for-the-red-sea">Lloyd Austin’s announcement in late December</a> of an international maritime task force was both practical and had the potential to solve the issue. The problem, however, is that such efforts take time to succeed. The U.S. didn’t give the initiative the time it needed.</p>
<p>U.S.-led strikes against the Houthis in Yemen only stood a chance of success if neighbouring states, most notably Saudi Arabia, combined the American air presence with a ground threat. Saudi Arabia, however, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/16/saudi-arabia-red-sea-conflict-houthis-us-strike/">won’t get involved</a> as it seeks to extricate itself from Yemen.</p>
<p>Given the <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-13/saudi-arabia-puts-israel-deal-on-ice-amid-war-engages-with-iran-sources-say">anger towards</a> Israelis in the region, as well as the Houthi’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/how-houthi-anger-with-israel-is-reshaping-the-middle-east-conflict?ref=mc.news">avowed goal</a> to strike Israel, countering the Houthi would be politically dangerous for Riyadh’s government.</p>
<p>The Houthis know the Americans lack regional allies and therefore they’ve not been deterred, but emboldened. In the aftermath of the U.S.-U.K. strikes, Houthis have vowed to continue <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/yemen-red-sea-houthis-1.7083030">to target ships</a> in the Red Sea and are making good on the threat.</p>
<p>U.S. President Joe Biden has even been forced to admit that the <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/us-again-targets-yemen-s-huthis-in-new-strikes-9cac37d1">ongoing airstrikes</a> <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/18/politics/biden-houthi-strikes/index.html">are not having the desired effect</a> of deterring the Houthis, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/13/us-launches-fresh-strikes-on-yemens-houthi-as-conflict-escalates">but says they’re necessary to protect merchant and military vessels</a>.</p>
<h2>Blowback in the broader region</h2>
<p>International norms and laws are effective so long as everyone adheres to them. Norms and laws, furthermore, are most vulnerable immediately after a state has breached them, which the U.S. did when it <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/iran-says-us-british-attacks-on-yemen-a-clear-violation-of-the-countrys-sovereignty/ar-AA1mQIsa">violated Yemen’s sovereignty</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-moral-credibility-is-dying-along-with-thousands-of-gaza-citizens-220449">Western moral credibility is dying along with thousands of Gaza citizens</a>
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<p>Nowhere is this more evident than in Iran’s actions in the aftermath of the strikes against the Houthis.</p>
<p>Because the Houthis are a key partner of Iran, Tehran’s government apparently believed it had to take action in case their credibility became compromised. Iran <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/iran-strikes-targets-in-northern-iraq-and-syria-as-regional-tensions-escalate/ar-AA1n1xOP">conducted strikes</a> against targets in Iraq and Syria. Iran claims the strikes in Iraq were against an Israeli spy installation. </p>
<p>While these events <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/16/iran-claims-it-has-attacked-an-israeli-spy-base-in-kurdistan">would have been troubling in their own right in terms of the impact on regional stability</a>, Iran followed up these strikes with ones in Pakistan, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/17/world/asia/pakistan-iran-strike.html">Pakistan retaliated</a>.</p>
<p>Fortunately, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67999465">both Iran</a> <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pakistan-conducts-strikes-in-iran-retaliating-for-earlier-hit-by-tehran/ar-AA1n9O2J">and Pakistan</a> are emphasizing that they’re not targeting the other country, but rather <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/paistan-cnucstrike-in-iran-in-retaliation-to-drone-and-missile-strikes-hits-baloch-separatist-groups/ar-AA1n9AwW">non-state militants</a>.</p>
<p>That said, Iran’s strike against Pakistan occurs as the country is <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/06/01/imran-khan-loses-his-battle-with-pakistans-army">politically vulnerable</a> in the aftermath of the army’s takedown of Prime Minister Imran Khan. With the Pakistani military unable to appear weak as the country faces crucial elections next month, the potential for events to escalate are very real.</p>
<p>Since the outset of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, the goal of nearly everyone involved, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/us-israel.html">particularly the U.S.</a>, has been to prevent the conflict from escalating regionally. Recent events are compromising this goal, including <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-blames-israel-for-strike-that-killed-four-senior-military-officials-in-syria-as-mid-east-conflict-spirals/ar-BB1gZPbm">strikes by Israel in Syria</a> and an Iranian-backed militia’s <a href="https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/01/21/us-troops-iraq-getting-evaluated-traumatic-brain-injuries-after-iran-backed-militia-attack.html">missile-and-rocket</a> attack against U.S. forces in Iraq.</p>
<p>By abandoning the focus on building a maritime coalition force and instead resorting to air strikes, the U.S. and its allies may have inadvertently created the situation they sought to avoid.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since the outset of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, the West has aimed to prevent the conflict from escalating regionally. But strikes on the Houthis in Yemen by the U.S. and the U.K. may ensure it will.James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215882024-01-22T03:06:05Z2024-01-22T03:06:05ZWhy US strikes will only embolden the Houthis, not stop their attacks on ships in the Red Sea<p>As the Houthi militant group in Yemen ramps up its attacks on vessels in the Red Sea – ostensibly in response to what it calls Israel’s “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/19/houthi-shipping-red-sea-oil-alliance/">genocidal crimes</a>” in Gaza – the US and UK have responded with multiple <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-carries-new-airstrike-houthis-yemen/story?id=106414037">military strikes</a> in the last week. The US has also re-listed the group as a <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-redesignates-houthis-terrorist-group-means/story?id=106451725">global terrorist organisation</a>.</p>
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<p>The hope is these strikes will pressure the Iran-aligned Houthis to back down. It won’t, however. Short of a complete halt to Israel’s war in Gaza and a 180-degree shift in Western support for Israel’s approach, there is little that will dissuade the Houthis to change course in the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>There are three main reasons for this, none of which are principally about Iran’s regional strategy.</p>
<h2>The group has already survived years of airstrikes</h2>
<p>The first, and most obvious, reason is the Houthi movement, whose political wing is known as <a href="https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20200617_acaps_yemen_analysis_hub_the_houthi_supervisory_system_0.pdf">Ansar Allah</a>, has already withstood years of airstrikes in its war with a Saudi-led and Western-backed coalition from 2015–2022. </p>
<p>Prior to this, the Houthis fought six wars against the central Yemeni government from 2004–2010. Guerrilla warfare is not new to them, and harassing ships off their coast does not require sophisticated weapons.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/torture-slow-motion-economic-blockade-yemen-and-its-grave-humanitarian-consequences">blockade</a> that accompanied much of the recent war (which is currently in a shaky truce) also helped the Houthis to finetune their <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03071847.2022.2148557">weapon smuggling networks</a> from Iran, as well as their own <a href="https://www.conflictarm.com/dispatches/evolution-of-uavs-employed-by-houthi-forces-in-yemen/">domestic</a> <a href="https://www.conflictarm.com/perspectives/iranian-technology-transfers-to-yemen/">weapon production</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, airstrikes alone are unlikely to deliver a knockout blow to their military capacity and will almost certainly increase their appetite for a fight.</p>
<p>That is because they can – for the first time – more strongly frame their actions in the context of fighting against the US and Israel, per their <a href="https://waleedmahdi.com/echoes-of-a-scream/">slogan</a>: “God is Great, death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-yemens-houthis-are-getting-involved-in-the-israel-hamas-war-and-how-it-could-disrupt-global-shipping-219220">Why Yemen's Houthis are getting involved in the Israel-Hamas war and how it could disrupt global shipping</a>
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<h2>With dissent rising, the Houthis have found ‘quasi-legitimacy’</h2>
<p>The second reason they are unlikely to be deterred is more important, but less understood, because it is about Yemen’s domestic politics. </p>
<p>The Houthis currently control much of Yemen, including the capital Sana'a, which accounts for around 70% of the population. The people in these regions have been subjected to years of acute and structural violence by the Houthis. This includes: </p>
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<li><p>the forced disappearances of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/09/15/yemen-houthis-disappear-political-opponent">political opponents</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/05/30/yemen-houthis-forcibly-disappear-bahais">religious minorities</a> </p></li>
<li><p>the extrajudicial killings of <a href="https://www.newarab.com/news/poisoned-yemeni-journalist-was-investigating-houthi-owned-companies">journalists</a> and executions of civilians, including <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-58630071">minors</a> </p></li>
<li><p>the recruitment of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2017/02/yemen-huthi-forces-recruiting-child-soldiers-for-front-line-combat/">child soldiers</a> </p></li>
<li><p>withholding public sector <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/dilemma-public-sector-salary-payments-yemen">salaries</a> since 2016 </p></li>
<li><p>the laying of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/22/yemen-houthi-landmines-kill-civilians-block-aid">landmines</a> in populated areas, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2023/06/21/1183192685/yemeni-civil-war-frontline-photos">sniper attacks</a> on civilians and the use of <a href="https://www.saferworld-global.org/multimedia/a-city-under-siege-the-realities-of-yemenas-war-in-taiz">siege warfare</a> </p></li>
<li><p>the systematic <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/final-report-panel-experts-yemen-established-pursuant-security-council-resolution-2140-2014s2023130-enar">extortion</a> of businesses and implementation of a <a href="https://sanaacenter.org/publications/analysis/11628">caste-based</a> taxation system</p></li>
<li><p>the implementation of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/09/yemen-huthis-suffocating-women-with-requirement-for-male-guardians/">male guardianship</a> rules for women </p></li>
<li><p>and the weaponisation of <a href="https://www.mwatana.org/reports-en/starvation-makers-e">food</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2023/12/11/death-more-merciful-life/houthi-and-yemeni-government-violations-right-water">water</a>, including the diversion of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jan/02/aid-officials-aware-for-months-of-widespread-food-aid-theft-in-yemen">food aid</a> for private enrichment. </p></li>
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<p>It is important to note the Saudi-led coalition and internationally recognised Yemeni government have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/aug/25/yemen-war-victims-stories-they-robbed-me-of-my-children">also</a> been accused of committing <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/18/yemen-latest-round-saudi-uae-led-attacks-targets-civilians">war crimes</a> and grave human rights <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/middle-east-and-north-africa/yemen/report-yemen/">violations</a> in Yemen, including the <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/wpf/files/2018/10/Strategies-of-Coalition-in-Yemen-War-Final-20181005-1.pdf">ruthless bombardment</a> of civilians and civilian infrastructure. </p>
<p>At least <a href="https://acleddata.com/middle-east/yemen/">150,000</a> people are estimated to have died violently in the war that began in 2015, though the challenges with collecting such <a href="https://sanaacenter.org/reports/humanitarian-aid/15353">data</a> are considerable. This also does not include the many more thousands that have died from <a href="https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/yemen-acute-hunger-unprecedented-levels-funding-dries">preventable starvation</a> and disease. </p>
<p>The behaviour of the Houthis in power has made them deeply unpopular. Dissent is dangerous due to the sophisticated <a href="https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20200617_acaps_yemen_analysis_hub_the_houthi_supervisory_system_0.pdf">system</a> of repression and neighbourhood <a href="https://almashareq.com/en_GB/articles/cnmi_am/features/2022/07/07/feature-02">surveillance</a> the Houthis have imposed in the areas they control. But Yemenis began taking to the street in protest last year anyway in <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2275026/middle-east">Ibb</a> and the besieged city of <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2338366/middle-east">Ta’izz</a>.</p>
<p>Then on September 26, just before Hamas’ assault on southern Israel and Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, Yemenis defied the authorities in large numbers. </p>
<p>In protests in the capital city of Sana'a, they celebrated the anniversary of the 1962 revolution that ousted the country’s leader, the Zaydi Imam, Mohammed al-Badr – and with him, the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362540450_The_Religious-Political_Ideology_of_Houthis'_Rebellion_in_Yemen_Theoretical_Perspective_of_the_Divine_Right_to_Rule">kinship-based</a> autocracy that <a href="https://www.leidenarabichumanitiesblog.nl/articles/a-stray-bullet-from-the-seventh-century-hit-yemen-anti-zaydi-polemics-and-the-politics-of-genealogy-in-al-ghobaris-al-qab%25C4%25ABlah-al-h%25C4%2581shimiyyah">many Yemenis</a> claim the Houthis <a href="https://www.commonspace.eu/analysis/analysis-origins-houthi-supremacist-ideology">seek</a> to <a href="https://sanaacenter.org/the-yemen-review/june-2022/18144">reinstate</a>. </p>
<p>Seeing this (rightly) as a demonstration against them, the Houthis were shaken. <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/09/yemen-wave-of-arrests-by-huthi-de-facto-authorities-following-demonstrations/">Amnesty International</a> reported they responded with an “alarming wave of arrests” and “a draconian show of force.”</p>
<p>Against a background of rising dissent at home, the Houthis’ actions and Western retaliation have given the group the gift of “<a href="https://sanaacenter.org/publications/analysis/21726">quasi-legitimacy</a>,” according to Yemeni analysts. The US-led strikes also give credence to the Houthis’ demands that critics “<a href="https://sanaacenter.org/publications/analysis/21726">shut their mouths</a>.” </p>
<p>And just as important, the US strikes can boost the Houthis’ military recruitment efforts. And this could help them attempt to seize the government-held oil wells in <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/84588">Marib</a> again, which the group needs to become economically sustainable.</p>
<h2>Anger is rising against the West across the region</h2>
<p>The third reason the Houthis are unlikely to be deterred by airstrikes or a terrorist designation is that their actions articulate the wider region’s fury at Israel’s war in Gaza, which has so far claimed the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/gazas-death-toll-just-passed-25-000-for-the-survivors-hunger-is-the-biggest-threat/kjx1e3r65">lives of 25,000 Palestinians</a>, and the decades of Western support for Israel’s policies in occupied Gaza and the West Bank.</p>
<p>They have also tapped into profound grievances about the West’s policies more generally and its record of reinforcing unpopular regimes in the face of popular action for <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/17/betrayed-by-their-leaders-failed-by-the-west-arabs-still-want-democracy/">change</a>. This includes the selling of <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780429317873-46/violence-david-wearing">weapons</a> and bestowing of political legitimacy to authoritarian regimes in exchange for what the West considers “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/2981/chapter-abstract/143677536?redirectedFrom=fulltext">stability</a>” in the world order. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-houthis-four-things-you-will-want-to-know-about-the-yemeni-militia-targeted-by-uk-and-us-military-strikes-221040">The Houthis: four things you will want to know about the Yemeni militia targeted by UK and US military strikes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Yemenis are, however, keenly aware that the Houthis’ rise and expansion was enabled by this same external push for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/10/us-backs-yemen-immunity-for-saleh">stability</a>, which came at the expense of Yemenis’ ability to determine <a href="https://merip.org/2014/12/the-breakdown-of-the-gcc-initiative/">local solutions</a> to <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/yemens-peace-process-hodeida-agreement-never-was">local problems</a>.</p>
<p>By centring the defence of Palestinians in their actions, the Houthis have found a way to discredit their domestic opponents – something that has largely eluded them for 20 years. This will make them even harder to dislodge from power and will likely consign ordinary Yemenis to further violence at their hands.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221588/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah G. Phillips receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Non-Resident Fellow with the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies (Yemen).</span></em></p>The Houthis have found legitimacy through their actions, which will make them even harder to dislodge from power.Sarah G. Phillips, Professor of Global Conflict and Development at The University of Sydney; Non-Resident Fellow at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2191302024-01-08T13:58:09Z2024-01-08T13:58:09ZScramble for the Sahel – why France, Russia, China and the United States are interested in the region<p>The Sahel, a region <a href="https://theconversation.com/sahel-region-africa-72569">3,860km wide located south of the Sahara Desert</a> and stretching east-west across the African continent, has been a focus of attention around the world recently. </p>
<p>In the last decade, issues such as <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15365.doc.htm#:%7E:text=drivers%20of%20insecurity.-,From%201%20January%20to%2030%20June%202023%2C%20the%20region%20recorded,displaced%20persons%20exceeding%206%20million.">terrorism</a>, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/01/1132332#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CIndeed%2C%20the%20central%20Sahel%20continues,in%20Ukraine%2C%E2%80%9D%20she%20added.">insecurity</a> and <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1137072">trafficking</a> have characterised the region. </p>
<p>Military takeovers have been a major source of concern in the region and beyond in the last few years. Since 2020, the region has had <a href="https://www.gcsp.ch/publications/understanding-crisis-democracy-west-africa-and-sahel">four successful coup d’états</a> and three failed ones. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://acleddata.com/2023/08/03/fact-sheet-military-coup-in-niger/">coup in Niger</a> particularly attracted attention. This is because Niger was seen as a “<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/west-africa/nigers-coup-and-americas-choice">darling of the west</a>” and a model for democratic governance in the region. </p>
<p>Despite the challenges facing the region, the scramble for the Sahel remains intense. </p>
<p>The main actors in this scramble are the <a href="https://european-union.europa.eu/index_en">European Union</a>, France, Russia, China and the United States.</p>
<p>The EU relies on Sahelian countries, especially Niger, to stop mass illegal immigration into the bloc. Niger is a major transit country in the region. Niger had security and defence partnerships with the EU until recently when the <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/niger-ends-security-and-defence-partnerships-with-the-eu/">country unilaterally cancelled the deals</a>. This is a source of concern to the EU. </p>
<p>Why are these foreign powers interested in the Sahel?</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.leedsbeckett.ac.uk/staff/dr-olayinka-ajala/">scholar</a> in international relations and having <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Olayinka-Ajala-2181806326">researched</a> the region for over a decade, I see the main reasons as follows: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>availability of natural resources</p></li>
<li><p>strategic location of the region in Africa</p></li>
<li><p>economic interests of the countries involved in the scramble</p></li>
<li><p>defence and security cooperation in the form of arms sales.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Foreign powers all have their reasons to be involved in the scramble for the Sahel.</p>
<h2>France</h2>
<p>Most of the countries in the Sahel region were colonised by France. Unlike Britain, France has maintained strong links with former colonies. They cooperate in the economy, defence and resource extraction, to mention a few areas. </p>
<p>France has the <a href="https://www.ieri.be/en/publications/wp/2019/f-vrier/france-still-exploiting-africa">first right</a> to buy any natural resources discovered in all its former colonies. Although the relationship between France and its former colonies appeared cordial, recent coups in Francophone countries and <a href="https://theconversation.com/france-in-africa-why-macrons-policies-increased-distrust-and-anger-212022">anti-France sentiments</a> across Africa have revealed the opposite. </p>
<p>The coups have been followed by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/huge-protests-niger-call-french-forces-leave-after-coup-2023-09-02/">large demonstrations</a> against France and in support of the putschists. </p>
<p>Despite these cracks, France is keen to maintain its grip on these countries, especially pertaining to military cooperation and resource extraction. France was reluctant to pull its military out of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger despite the countries severing military partnerships. It continues to extract natural resources in these countries.</p>
<h2>Russia</h2>
<p>The relationships between Russia and many Sahelian countries were established during the cold war and colonial era. More recently, the emphasis by western countries on <a href="https://www.equalityhumanrights.com/sites/default/files/research-report-72-the-impact-of-counter-terrorism-measures-on-muslim-communities.pdf">human rights</a>, especially during counterterrorism operations, has pushed Sahelian countries closer to Russia.</p>
<p>While western allies demand the rule of law, democracy, and human rights in return for security and economic support, Russia portrays itself differently. The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/2022-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine">invasion</a> of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 also increased Russia’s interest in the Sahel because it is keen to maintain allies in Africa. </p>
<p>Russia has <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/28/russia-s-growing-footprint-in-africa-s-sahel-region-pub-89135">openly backed</a> military regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66478430">warned</a> against any military intervention in Niger when the military took power. Furthermore, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877">Wagner group</a>, the controversial private military company which is controlled by Russia, cooperates with some countries in the Sahel. Niger has <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20231204-niger-s-junta-ends-key-security-agreements-with-eu-turns-to-russia-for-defence-deal">cancelled defence agreement with the EU</a> and switched to Russia. All of these factors explain Russia’s interest in the Sahel. </p>
<h2>China</h2>
<p>Like Russia, China portrays itself as an alternative to the traditional ally (France) of Sahelian countries. With a mantra of “<a href="https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=94683">non-interference</a>” and “<a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/praxis/files/2020/05/1.-Condon.pdf">respecting sovereignty</a>”, China has entrenched itself as a “partner” of countries in the Sahel. </p>
<p>The Sahel region is rich in natural resources such as oil, uranium, natural gas and lithium. Chinese state-owned enterprises <a href="https://faoajournal.substack.com/p/the-future-of-strategic-competition">operate</a> in Niger, Chad, Mali and Burkina Faso. </p>
<p>For instance, Mali potentially has <a href="https://www.mining-technology.com/features/top-ten-biggest-lithium-mines/?cf-view">one of the largest</a> lithium reserves in the world and China’s Ganfeng Lithium has <a href="https://faoajournal.substack.com/p/the-future-of-strategic-competition">invested</a> heavily in the country. In addition, despite China’s development in military hardware, most of the weapons are untested. China is keen to use the conflicts in the Sahel to <a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/AUPress/Papers/WF_93_Rajosefa_The_Future_of_Strategic_Competition_in_the_Sahel_Region.pdf">test</a> its arms products. </p>
<h2>The United States</h2>
<p>In 2019, the US opened its <a href="https://intellinews.com/us-in-danger-of-losing-control-of-its-extensive-drone-base-in-niger-289069/#:%7E:text=The%20Agadez%20drone%20base%2C%20officially,by%20the%20US%20Air%20Force.">largest drone base</a> in Africa in Agadez-Niger. A year before that, I had <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03071847.2018.1552452">written</a> about the security implications of the base for the region. </p>
<p>Unlike France and China, which both have extensive economic interests in the Sahel, the US has a strong military interest. Niger, in particular, is strategically located and the US can easily fly surveillance and reconnaissance drones from the country to cover the Sahel, west and central Africa. </p>
<p>As France is being militarily dislodged by its former colonies in the region, the US has been trying to fill the void to prevent Russia and China from establishing further military presence. </p>
<p>The US took several months to label the military takeover in Niger a coup so as not to lose strategic military cooperation and dominance. </p>
<p>The year 2023 has been particularly challenging for the countries in the Sahel. With issues ranging from economic instability to insecurity, the region remains fragile. Despite the instability and fragility, the scramble for the region remains intense with traditional allies such as France losing its grip and other powers stepping up. </p>
<p>The Sahel is one to keep an eye on in 2024 and beyond.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219130/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Foreign powers’ interest in the Sahel is driven by its natural resources and strategic location for security and illegal migration control.Olayinka Ajala, Senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Leeds Beckett UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195462024-01-02T16:49:57Z2024-01-02T16:49:57ZPrivatised Moon landings: the two US missions set to open a new era of commercial lunar exploration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566549/original/file-20231219-23-qde9s6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1839%2C984&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10836">Photograph: Nasa (Goddard Space Flight Center)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two commercial spacecraft are scheduled to launch to the Moon early in 2024 under a Nasa initiative called the Commercial Lunar Payload Service <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/commercial-lunar-payload-services/">CLPS</a>. This programme is intended to kickstart a commercial transportation service that can deliver Nasa experiments and other payloads to the lunar surface.</p>
<p>If successful, these missions will represent the first landings on the Moon by spacecraft designed and flown by private companies. They could potentially open up a new era of commercial lunar exploration and science. </p>
<p>CLPS was inaugurated by Nasa in 2018. An initial pool of nine companies received an invitation to join the programme. They included <a href="https://www.astrobotic.com/">Astrobotic</a> and <a href="https://www.intuitivemachines.com/">Intuitive Machines</a>, the two companies behind these missions. Both missions expect to land within a week after lift-off.</p>
<p>The first launch, and the first Nasa flight of 2024, is the Peregrine lunar lander, built by Pittsburgh-based Astrobotic. It is scheduled to launch at the earliest on January 8. Broadly speaking, the lander is a box the size of a medium-sized garden shed containing several separate experiments. </p>
<p>These include a set of mirrors called a laser retro-reflector array, used for accurate positioning of the lander from orbit. There are also a number of spectrometers – instruments that separate and measure the distinct colours found in light. These will measure radiation on the lunar surface and look for signatures of water in lunar soil.</p>
<p>One of them, the <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/experiment/display.action?id=PEREGRN-1-02">Neutron Spectrometer System</a>, will look for hydrogen-containing materials on the surface, which can indicate the presence of water below ground. This water could one day be used by human explorers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Astrobotic Peregrine lander." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1917%2C1279&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566548/original/file-20231219-19-i3ffem.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Astrobotic’s Peregrine lander will touch down near the Gruithuisen Domes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/details/KSC-20231114-PH-ILW01_0100">Isaac Watson/Nasa</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are two principle sources of dangerous radiation for humans in space. One is the Sun, which unleashes electrons, protons and heavier ions that are accelerated to a significant fraction of the speed of light. </p>
<p>These solar energetic particle events (SEPs) are more likely to occur during the Sun’s peak of activity (solar maximum), which occurs every 11 years. However, that does not mean there is a respite during the solar minimum.</p>
<p>The other source of harmful radiation is galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These energetic particles originate outside the Solar System, probably in explosive phenomena such as exploding stars (supernovas).</p>
<p>During periods of lower solar activity (including the solar minimum), the Sun’s magnetic field, which extends throughout the Solar System, weakens. This enables <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Solar-cycle-%20modulation-and-anti-correlation-of-GCR-flux-with-solar-activity-Shown-are_fig6_257343697">more GCRs</a> to reach us instead. </p>
<p>Another spectrometer on Peregrine will measure both SEPs and GCRs on the Moon. This is important for examining how dangerous the radiation environment at the lunar surface will be for future human explorers.</p>
<h2>Polar landing</h2>
<p>The second spacecraft to launch early in 2024 is the <a href="https://www.intuitivemachines.com/im-1">Nova-C lander</a>. It is designed by Houston-based Intuitive Machines and has a similar volume to Peregrine, but in the shape of a tall, hexagonal cylinder. It will carry several instruments including its own laser retro-reflector array. Nova-C is currently scheduled to launch in mid-February.</p>
<p>Other instruments include a suite of cameras for producing a 3D image of Nova-C’s landing site. This will allow scientists to estimate how much material is blown away by the landing rocket’s exhaust plume during the descent. Potentially, any material blown away can be imaged to get an idea of the composition of surface material. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Nova-C lander." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566583/original/file-20231219-23-2hpa5p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A model of the Nova-C lander.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/details/NHQ201905310022">Nasa (Goddard Space Flight Center)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The “radio observations of the lunar surface photo-electron sheath” (<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.02331.pdf">Rolses</a>) instrument is designed to measure how the extremely tenuous lunar atmosphere and the Moon’s surface dust environment affect radio waves. </p>
<p>The behaviour of electrically charged dust particles on the Moon is a technical challenge which future explorers will need to deal with, as the abrasive particles can attach themselves to surfaces and mechanical devices and potentially cause harm if <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/the-%20next-big-challenge-for-lunar-astronauts-moon-dust/">inhaled</a> by astronauts.</p>
<p>A privately built experiment onboard Nova-C is the International Lunar Observatory <a href="https://iloa.org/ilo-x-precursor/">ILO-X</a>, which will aim to capture some of the first images of the Milky Way galaxy from the Moon’s surface. This would demonstrate the concept of lunar-based astronomy.</p>
<h2>Landing locations</h2>
<p>Peregrine’s landing site is a bay on the west side of Mare Imbrium, known as Sinus Viscositatis (Bay of Stickiness). Here, two volcanic mountains called the <a href="https://moon.nasa.gov/resources/482/a-lunar-%20mystery-the-gruithuisen-domes/">Gruithuisen Domes</a> are made of a different material to the surrounding plains. </p>
<p>The plains are a form of basalt, while the domes are composed of silica. Both are volcanic in origin, but one appears to have been formed by lava with a viscosity of mango chutney (the silica), and the other by runnier lava (the basalt). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Gruithuisen Domes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566614/original/file-20231219-29-7x7oaq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Gruithuisen Domes appear to have been formed by silica lavas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://moon.nasa.gov/resources/482/a-lunar-mystery-the-gruithuisen-domes/">Nasa (GSFC)/Arizona State University</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On Earth, silica lavas typically require the presence both of water and plate tectonics. However, plate tectonics are not known to be present on the Moon, and neither is water in the quantities necessary for silica lavas. The Gruithuisen Domes thus present a geological enigma which Peregrine could go some way to resolving.</p>
<p>The landing location for Nova-C is Malapert A crater – which is of particular interest for lunar exploration, as it lies close to the Moon’s south pole. The surrounding mountains permanently shield this depression from sunlight, leaving it in constant darkness. </p>
<p>Consequently, it is one of the coldest locations in the Solar System and, given the lack of sunlight, a place where water ice delivered by comets hitting the surface over the aeons could remain stable. Future human explorers could use it for life support and making rocket fuel.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Lunar south pole." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566615/original/file-20231219-27-888tuc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An image of the Moon’s South Pole showing the Malapert crater (foreground).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5127">Nasa's Scientific Visualization Studio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are additional payloads on both spacecraft from private investors. Peregrine contains the “DHL Spacebox”, which will carry personal items from paying customers, while Nova-C contains “The Humanity Hall of Fame” – a list of names to be sent to the Moon for posterity. Such payloads can generate additional funding for the launch companies.</p>
<p>Several other companies are due to launch their first payloads to the Moon in the next couple of years. With greater input from private companies – assuming the these first few missions succeed – we may soon witness a new era in lunar exploration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219546/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Peregrine and Nova-C landers are due to carry out valuable science at two diverse lunar locations.Gareth Dorrian, Post Doctoral Research Fellow in Space Science, University of BirminghamIan Whittaker, Senior Lecturer in Physics, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2109412023-12-27T09:10:11Z2023-12-27T09:10:11ZHorse skulls and harmony singing – two winter customs which bring people in Wales together<p>Imagine you’re having a quiet evening at home when suddenly there’s a knock on the door. You open it to find a boisterous crowd carrying a horse’s skull mounted on a pole and draped in ribbons – the <em><a href="https://museum.wales/articles/1187/Christmas-Traditions-The-Mari-Lwyd">Mari Lwyd</a></em> has arrived. </p>
<p>The <em>Mari Lwyd</em>, meaning “grey (or pale) mare”, is a Christmas and new year custom in areas of south Wales dating back to the 18th century. A horse’s skull is placed on a pole and covered in a white sheet, decorated with ribbons. A person, concealed under the sheet, carries the pole and operates the horse’s jaw, making it snap. A group of stock characters accompany them including Sergeant, Merryman, Punch and Judy. </p>
<p>The procession goes from house to house and the group sing verses asking for admittance. The household is expected to respond, also in verse. And so begins a (sometimes very long) improvised poetic contest or rhyming ritual known as <em>pwnco</em> before the group is finally invited into the house and offered food and drink.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AcvvWcDLagY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Mari Lwyd goes from door to door but would you let her in?</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several explanations have been proposed as to the origin of the custom. Some argue that its roots lie in a pre-Christian fertility <a href="http://www.folkwales.org.uk/mari.html">ritual</a>. Others have argued that the <em>Mari Lwyd</em> has associations with the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2791759">Virgin Mary</a>. </p>
<p>The custom is clearly connected to the practice of <a href="https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/discover/history/art-collections/wassailing-ritual-and-revelry#">wassailing</a>, where groups of merrymakers go from one house to another asking for food and drink. It may be linked to other folk performances found elsewhere in Britain and Ireland, including the <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100300697">hobby-horse</a> tradition. </p>
<h2>Plygain</h2>
<p>Further north, a tradition celebrated in Montgomeryshire, where I was brought up, is much less colourful and firmly located within a religious context. Deriving from the Latin “pullicantio” (cock crow), the <em><a href="https://museum.wales/articles/1185/Christmas-Traditions-Plygain-Singing/">plygain</a></em> (pronounced “plug-ine”), was an early-morning service originally held on Christmas Day in parish churches and then also in nonconformist chapels, beginning in candlelight and continuing into daylight. </p>
<p>It is now mainly an evening service, although some stalwarts still adhere to the early morning tradition. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A trio singing plygain.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After a congregational hymn, a reading and a prayer, the vicar or minister will announce, “<em>Mae’r blygien yn awr yn agored</em>” (the plygain is now open). There is no programme; rather, a party of singers will get up and make their way to the chancel or the <em>sêt fawr</em> (the elder’s pew in a chapel), and sing a carol, unaccompanied and with no conductor. </p>
<p>These are often from the same family and with an ancient pedigree, their frayed carol books (usually old notebooks) having been passed down through the generations. A tuning fork is often used to pitch the tune – I’ve even seen it struck against a singer’s tooth. </p>
<p>The carols would often have been composed by local poets and sung to popular tunes of the time. They do not describe solely the birth of Christ and frequently focus on the crucifixion. Often very long, they are usually sung in three-part harmonies. </p>
<p>The <em>plygain</em> ends with the spine-chilling sound of <em><a href="http://daibach-welldigger.blogspot.com/2020/12/welsh-carols-15-carol-y-swper.html">Carol y Swper</a></em> (the Supper Carol), when all the men in the congregation come forward to sing. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Carol y Swper performed at a church in Montgomeryshire.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Revival and reinvention</h2>
<p>In the 1960s, the <a href="https://museum.wales/stfagans/">St Fagans National Museum of History</a>, or the Welsh Folk Museum as it was then known, began <a href="https://museum.wales/collections/folksongs/?action=background">collecting</a> different genres of Welsh folk songs. These included <em>plygain</em> carols and <em>Mari Lwyd</em> verses. This has helped to renew interest in both traditions. </p>
<p>The museum hosts annual <em>Mari Lwyd</em> <a href="https://museum.wales/stfagans/whatson/12104/Christmas-Traditions-The-Mari-Lwyd-Performances">performances</a>, while many a Cardiff pub-goer will likely be startled by the sudden appearance of a snapping horse’s skull. The practice has evolved over time – visits can be pre-arranged, participants will sing from song sheets, the <em>Mari</em> may even be made of cardboard. In fact, anything goes.</p>
<p>Today, the <em>Mari</em> (in various guises) is thriving, and can be found as far afield as the USA and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/welshzombiechristmashorse/">Australia</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1477386261761564672"}"></div></p>
<p>The <em>plygain</em> is still going strong in Montgomeryshire and, indeed, all over Wales and beyond. Around 50 <a href="https://plygain.org/dyddiadur.htm">services</a> are held during December and January. </p>
<p>And this tradition, too, has undergone many changes. Several collections of <em>plygain</em> songs have by now been published enabling new carollers to participate. </p>
<p>In 2020 and 2021, a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yifxPBea1f0">virtual</a> <em>plygain</em> took place during the pandemic. A bilingual <em>plygain</em> <a href="https://www.plygain.org/home.htm">website</a> has also been set up and a new carol composed specifically for women’s voices, so that women, too, have their <em>Carol y Swper</em>. </p>
<p>Purists would argue that traditions should not be revived and re-invented. But it is in the nature of traditions to change and constantly evolve – they must do so in order to survive. </p>
<p>We should continue to celebrate the modern-day versions of the <em>Mari Lwyd</em> tradition and the <em>plygain</em> because they contribute to a shared sense of identity and instil in participants a sense of belonging.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sioned Davies does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Mari Lwyd and the plygain are two prominent Welsh traditions celebrated over Christmas and the new year.Sioned Davies, Emeritus Professor of Welsh, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199582023-12-18T03:20:04Z2023-12-18T03:20:04ZIsrael-Hamas war: a ceasefire is now in sight. Will Israel’s prime minister agree?<p>The mistaken killing of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-16/israel-kills-hostages-mistakenly-in-gaza/103237282">three Israeli hostages</a> by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) at the weekend has substantially increased pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in the war against Hamas.</p>
<p>The Biden administration is exerting maximum pressure to convince the Israeli government that the downsides of its prosecution of the war, particularly the shockingly high Palestinian civilian death toll, now outweigh the potential gains.</p>
<p>During a visit to Israel earlier this month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Netanyahu and his cabinet they would have to <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/12/14/israels-current-large-scale-operation-is-the-last-one-in-gaza">end the offensive</a> by the new year. </p>
<p>National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited Israel on the weekend to deliver the same message, emphasising that the US wanted to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna130070">see results</a> on its demands to Israel to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza.</p>
<p>Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin is currently on a trip to the Middle East, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna130070">including a stopover</a> in Israel to discuss the “eventual cessation of high-intensity ground operations and air strikes”. </p>
<p>Earlier in the month, Austin <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4339335-lloyd-austin-israel-risks-defeat-if-civilians-not-protected/#:%7E:text=Defense-,Israel%20risks%20'strategic%20defeat'%20if%20civilians%20aren',t%20protected%2C%20Pentagon%20chief%20says&text=Secretary%20of%20Defense%20Lloyd%20Austin,group%20Hamas%20in%20the%20region.">warned</a> that Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians risked driving them into the arms of the enemy – replacing “a tactical victory with a strategic defeat”.</p>
<p>Finally President Joe Biden, who won enormous kudos in Israel for his visit in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attacks on October 7, has <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/biden-israel-losing-support-netanyahu/index.html#:%7E:text=Rifts%20between%20the%20United%20States,plans%20for%20post%2Dwar%20Gaza.">publicly warned</a> that Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” of Gaza is losing it international support.</p>
<p>The US, if not Israel (which regards the UN as biased against it) will be concerned at the UN General Assembly vote on December 12 demanding a ceasefire. Though the resolution is non-enforceable, the large majority – 153 of the 190 members – was a clear indication of growing international opposition to the war. </p>
<p>The majority in favour of a similar resolution in October was 120. The US stood out as the only UN Security Council member to vote against the December resolution.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-us-israel-relationship-is-in-period-of-transition-as-biden-says-israel-is-losing-support-219571">Gaza war: US-Israel relationship is in period of transition as Biden says Israel is losing support</a>
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<h2>Israeli forces credibility reduced</h2>
<p>To underline these messages, a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/13/politics/intelligence-assessment-dumb-bombs-israel-gaza/index.html">leaked US intelligence assessment</a> has claimed 40-45% of the 29,000 air-to-surface ground munitions Israel has used in Gaza have been “dumb” (unguided) bombs. This disclosure effectively undercuts the Israel Defense Force’s claim that its strikes have been only at <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-hamas-engage-in-fierce-battles-in-gaza-s-biggest-cities-/7389468.html">proven Hamas targets</a>.</p>
<p>Details of the accidental killing of the three hostages, as they have emerged at the weekend, further reduce the credibility of the Israeli forces’ claims to be operating with full regard to international humanitarian law. The three were holding <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israeli-army-says-it-mistakenly-shot-and-killed-three-hostages-20231216-p5erwi.html">a white cloth</a>, had their hands in the air and were calling to the soldiers in Hebrew.</p>
<p>An Israeli Defense Force official has said the case was “against our rules of engagement” and an <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67738111">investigation was happening</a> at the “highest level”.</p>
<p>The tragedy has given renewed impetus to the campaign by families of the more than 100 remaining hostages and their numerous supporters. They want the government to prioritise negotiations for the release of the captives over the war against Hamas. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/video/hundreds-protest-in-tel-aviv-after-idf-mistakenly-kills-3-hostages-200358981517">Demonstrations took place</a> in Tel Aviv after news of the three hostages’ deaths.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-the-us-israel-special-relationship-shows-how-connections-have-shifted-since-long-before-the-1948-founding-of-the-jewish-state-215781">A brief history of the US-Israel 'special relationship' shows how connections have shifted since long before the 1948 founding of the Jewish state</a>
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<p>So far Netanyahu and his Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, are holding firm that the operation to destroy Hamas must continue. Gallant has said that only <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/gaza-war-puts-pressure-on-hamas-to-free-more-hostages-gallant-tells-families/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CWhen%20the%20military%20operations%20advance,%2C%E2%80%9D%20Gallant%20told%20the%20families.">intense military pressure</a> on Hamas will create conditions for release of more hostages.</p>
<h2>Netanyahu likely to continue the conflict</h2>
<p>Netanyahu has a number of reasons for continuing the war. </p>
<p>In the inevitable postwar inquiry into the security lapses that led to the horrific Hamas attack on October 7, major blame is certain be laid on him. That inquiry won’t be held while the war proceeds. </p>
<p>But Netanyahu will be aware that his only chance of avoiding the sort of withering criticism that would force him from office is to make good on his pledge to totally eliminate Hamas, and to find and recover the remaining hostages. That will take much more time than Biden seems willing to allow him.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for Netanyahu, he cannot yet claim victory on the basis of decapitating the Hamas leadership. The movement’s political ruler in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and its military leader, Mohammed Deif, are still at large. They’re probably somewhere in the vast tunnel network beneath Gaza. If Israel were to capture or kill these two, Netanyahu would be able to claim substantial vindication.</p>
<p>The Biden administration’s pressure is of less concern to Netanyahu. He is practised at staring down US presidents, particularly Democratic ones. In <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1157889/">2009</a> he defied President Barack Obama’s call for a freeze on settlement building in the West Bank.</p>
<p>In 2015 he even <a href="https://time.com/3678657/obama-netanyahu-washington/">breached protocol</a> by accepting a Republican invitation to visit Washington to address a joint sitting of Congress without calling on Obama.</p>
<p>Within Israel, Netanyahu is helped by the fact that Israelis have only a partial picture of the human toll their country’s campaign is having on Palestinian civilians. </p>
<p>The ABC Global Affairs Editor, John Lyons, who was based in Jerusalem for many years and understands Hebrew, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-10/israel-gaza-media-watching-a-sanitised-war/103206528">reported</a> after a recent visit to Israel:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] most Israelis do not see pictures (on their televisions) of injured Palestinian women and children or the destruction of Gaza into kilometre after kilometre of rubble […] Israelis are watching a sanitised war […] They are bewildered at why the world is increasingly uncomfortable at the high civilian casualty rate.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Resumption of hostage negotiations</h2>
<p>That said, Netanyahu has bowed to the hostages lobby by reversing a decision that the head of Mossad, David Barnea, should cease negotiations in Qatar for more hostage releases. Barnea met Qatar’s prime minister in Europe <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/benjamin-netanyahu-hints-at-new-hostage-negotiations-with-hamas/cfjriz264">last week</a>. No details were available at time of writing. </p>
<p>But Hamas continues to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/17/israel-faces-new-calls-for-truce-after-killing-of-hostages-raises-alarm-about-its-conduct-in-gaza.html">make demands</a> that Israel would find hard to accept: no further hostage releases until the war ends; and insistence that a deal would involve release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including high-profile militants.</p>
<p>In the background, a worry for both Israel and the US is that support for Hamas has risen substantially in the West Bank since the war started. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/under-pressure-netanyahu-agrees-to-a-ceasefire-and-hostage-deal-with-hamas-are-his-days-now-numbered-218348">Under pressure, Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas. Are his days now numbered?</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/961">Polling</a> between November 22 and December 2 by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research indicated that backing for Hamas had risen from 12% in September to 44% at the beginning of December. This is shown also in the number of green Hamas flags in evidence when Palestinian prisoners were freed during the pauses in fighting in late November.</p>
<p>The polling even showed that support for Hamas in Gaza over the same period had risen from 38% to 42%.</p>
<p>Netanyahu may get lucky if his forces find Sinwar and Deif. In the meantime, a decision on continuation of the war rests with him.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The mistaken killing of three Israeli hostages by the Israeli Defense Forces at the weekend has substantially increased pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire.Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2191582023-12-17T13:41:47Z2023-12-17T13:41:47ZWhy the American technological war against China could backfire<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-the-american-technological-war-against-china-could-backfire" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-15/us-will-tighten-curbs-on-china-s-access-to-advanced-chip-tech">technological war</a> waged by the United States <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/09/us/politics/biden-ban-china-investment.html">against China</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-29/are-us-technology-sanctions-against-china-backfiring">has the potential to backfire</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/magazine/semiconductor-chips-us-china.html">supercharging China’s creation of an independent computer chip industry</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUfjtKtkS2U&t=16s">that would directly compete with American manufacturers</a>. </p>
<p>U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has employed <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-lawmakers-target-china-with-export-controls-sanctions-bills-1.2011207">increasingly restrictive sanctions</a> to prevent American and allied chip manufacturers from selling their most advanced products to China.</p>
<p>These restrictions are aimed at <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2022/12/us-chip-ban-wont-short-circuit-chinas-military-power/">preventing China’s military</a> from <a href="https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/08/30/2099944/">developing more sophisticated weapons</a>. However, the People’s Liberation Army uses very few high-tech chips. The tech war seems designed to cripple China’s overall technological development and, by extension, its economic growth and prosperity. </p>
<h2>Cautionary tale</h2>
<p>Ongoing <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/west-world-tour-huawei-china-telecom/">American efforts</a> to cripple the Chinese telecom company Huawei may serve as a cautionary tale for the U.S.</p>
<p>American technological sanctions damaged the company and its role as a leading global producer of cellphones, but Huawei has <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/chinas-huawei-looks-to-ports-factories-to-rebuild-sales/#:%7E:text=Huawei%20is%20reinventing%20itself%20as,sanctions%20crushed%20its%20smartphone%20brand.">reinvented itself</a> as a cloud computing network company. </p>
<p>It has also re-entered the cellphone market, introducing its <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Huawei-Mate-60-Pro-teardown-reveals-47-Chinese-parts-in-phone">Mate 60 phone that boasts Chinese-designed and manufactured seven-nanometre</a> computer chips. American tech restrictions were meant to keep China stuck at manufacturing no more than 14-nanometre chips, keeping it at least eight to 10 years behind U.S. technology.</p>
<p>The accomplishment means that China is gaining ground on the U.S. </p>
<p>Recently, Huawei introduced <a href="https://www.gizchina.com/2023/10/31/former-tsmc-ibm-exec-reveals-huaweis-capability-to-produce-cutting-edge-5nm-chips/">a computer with five-nanometre chip</a>, further closing the gap with the West. </p>
<p>Western observers <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/04/technology/tech-cold-war-chips.html">have argued that the production of high-end microchips</a> requires international co-operation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08myo1UdTZ8&t=12s">The Netherlands’ ASML</a> is the only company with the advanced lithography equipment needed to make three-nanometre chips. ASML built its machine using technologies from about seven other countries and took 20 years to get to market. Therefore, China is unlikely to succeed if it’s relying only on itself to create independent capacity.</p>
<p>However, the basic understanding of how lithography works is well-known. China has pushed its existing ASML equipment beyond its original capabilities and is pioneering an <a href="https://medium.com/@thechinaacademy/china-may-be-constructing-euv-lithography-machines-on-a-massive-scale-da796ea1af73">innovative approach to lithography</a> that could see China mass-producing high-end semiconductors in the future.</p>
<h2>Chinese education prowess</h2>
<p>Most importantly, scientific knowledge cannot be contained and China has made extraordinary gains in its educational system. </p>
<p>Chinese high schoolers in four affluent provinces <a href="https://archive.ph/3KGuE">score the highest in the world in reading, science and mathematics</a>. According to <em>Times Higher Education</em>, Chinese universities are <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/china-subject-ratings-2021-china-outperforms-rest-world">“outperforming institutions in the rest of the world in the vast majority of disciplines</a>.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/engineering">The <em>U.S. News & World Report</em> has ranked six of the top 10 (and 11 of the top 20) engineering schools in the world</a>, and they’re in China, with Tsinghua University in Beijing in first place. Only two of the top 10 are American. <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2023/09/china-dominates-in-high-quality-natural-science-research/">China is also projected to produce 77,000 science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) graduates by 2025</a>, more than double that of the U.S. </p>
<p>China has been saddled with the stereotype that <a href="https://hbr.org/2014/03/why-china-cant-innovate">it cannot innovate</a>. But in 2022, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-01705-7">China overtook the U.S. for the first time</a> as the country or territory publishing the most research articles in prestigious natural science journals. </p>
<p>China closed the gap remarkably quickly, <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2023/09/china-dominates-in-high-quality-natural-science-research/">increasing its share of scientific articles</a> by 21 per cent since 2021 and 152 per cent since 2016. </p>
<p>According to Japan’s National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/11/china-overtakes-the-us-in-scientific-research-output">China published the highest number of scientific research papers annually between 2018 and 2020</a>, and had 27.2 per cent of the world’s top one per cent of the most frequently cited papers, compared to 24.9 per cent for the U.S. </p>
<p>A survey done by the <a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker">Australian Strategic Policy Institute</a> determined that China is leading in 37 of 44 cutting-edge technologies, including nanoscale materials and synthetic biology. China is also <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2023/09/china-using-industrial-robots-at-12x-us-rate/">using industrial robots at 12 times the rate</a> as the U.S. </p>
<h2>Cannot be cut off</h2>
<p>This is not a country that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sanctions-drive-chinese-firms-to-advance-ai-without-latest-chips-f6aed67f">can be contained by cutting it off from technology</a>. When it comes to the use and production of knowledge-based industries, China has more advantages than any other country in the world. </p>
<p>American actions will create a new generation of Chinese high-tech firms that will compete directly with the U.S. and western businesses from whom they used to buy their products. These firms will produce more affordable products than their western counterparts, and <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/blocked-in-the-west-huawei-eyes-emerging-markets/">could dominate technological infrastructure</a> in the Global South.</p>
<p>Chinese electric vehicles are the <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electric-cars-in-China/China-s-GAC-breaks-1-000-km-range-barrier-with-new-EV">most advanced</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/08/business/china-electric-vehicles.html">in the world</a>, and <a href="https://www.thecooldown.com/green-tech/byd-seagull-ev-cheap-electric-car/">spreading to the rest of the globe</a>. Even as direct U.S.-China trade has declined, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2023/08/29/protectionism-is-failing-to-achieve-its-goals-and-threatens-the-future-of-critical-industries">China’s overall importance to world trade has increased</a>. </p>
<p>Over the past year, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/14/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-dan-wang.html">numerous pundits</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/26/opinion/china-economy-xi-jinping.html">have declared</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/business/china-economy-safety-net.html">that China’s economic collapse</a> is imminent. There’s no question <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/chinas-economic-miracle-turns-to-fiscal-crisis/">China is experiencing economic headwinds</a> as it deals with deflationary pressures linked to real estate, high local government debt and reduced consumer confidence. </p>
<h2>No collapse imminent</h2>
<p>But China’s critics have been predicting its collapse for decades. China keeps confounding them, and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/17/china-economy-optimists-property/?tpcc=recirc_trending062921">it probably will once again</a>. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/imf-upgrades-chinas-2023-2024-gdp-growth-forecasts-2023-11-07/">The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted China’s predicted GDP growth rate upwards for 2023 to 5.4 per cent, and expects 4.6 per cent growth in 2024</a>. </p>
<p>The IMF expects China’s growth to continue slowing in the future, but this forecast doesn’t account for the technological potential that the country is unlocking. </p>
<p>China may be using the present debt crisis <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2023/08/property-shakeout-beijings-tool-to-fight-fiefdoms/">to redirect domestic investment</a> away from a volatile property market and towards a productive and sustainable high tech economy. </p>
<p>If so, American efforts to stifle China may have created the conditions needed to ensure its success.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Narine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chinese technology advancements cannot be contained, and the country is increasingly an education and research powerhouse.Shaun Narine, Professor of International Relations and Political Science, St. Thomas University (Canada)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.