tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/victoria-elections-2018-62420/articlesVictoria elections 2018 – The Conversation2018-12-11T19:04:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1077012018-12-11T19:04:47Z2018-12-11T19:04:47ZLaw and order is no get-out-of-jail card for floundering politicians<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249381/original/file-20181206-128196-1j4q075.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Outgoing Victorian opposition leader Matthew Guy and wife Renae as Guy acknowledges defeat in the recent Victorian state election in which he had tried to appeal to voters'
fears over street crime, race and terrorism.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With confidence in politicians at an <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/in-freefall-satisfaction-with-democracy-hits-new-low-20181204-p50k4d.html">all-time low</a>, it would be easy to assume criminal law-making is only ever about “law and order” bidding and winning elections. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/historical-fall-of-liberal-seats-in-victoria-micros-likely-to-win-ten-seats-in-upper-house-labor-leads-in-nsw-108047">Historical fall of Liberal seats in Victoria; micros likely to win ten seats in upper house; Labor leads in NSW</a>
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<p>For example, when it emerged that <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/bourke-street-mall-terrorist-was-on-bail-and-due-to-return-to-court-20181116-p50gj0.html">Hassan Khalif Shire Ali was on bail</a> when he killed one man and injured two others in Bourke Street, Melbourne, on November 9, the Victorian opposition reiterated its plan for a <a href="https://electionwatch.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/2930453/Coal-One-Strike-Bail.pdf">“one strike and you’re out” bail system</a>.</p>
<p>This was classic law and order politics – though it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/28/matthew-guy-resigns-as-victorian-liberal-leader-after-disastrous-election-loss">didn’t produce the result</a> Victorian Liberal leader Matthew Guy had hoped. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-race-scare-left-south-sudanese-star-basketballers-with-nowhere-to-play-107940">How a race scare left South Sudanese star basketballers with nowhere to play</a>
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<p>All instances of criminal law-making (or promising) deserve scrutiny – especially if they raise concerns that politicians might be politicising the law for electoral advantage. However, it would be a mistake to assume this is the only way criminal laws are made.</p>
<p>We are part of a <a href="https://www.crimejusticejournal.com/article/view/918">team of Australian researchers</a> examining how, when and why criminal laws are made. What drivers and processes sit behind the moment when an attorney-general stands up in parliament and introduces a new bill? And how do we assess what makes a good process?</p>
<p>So far, we’ve found there is a stark difference between the careful evidence-based, deliberative and consultative processes associated with the criminal law’s use against some harms – like domestic violence – and the “urgent” non-consultative law-making with others – like terrorists and outlaw motorcycle gangs.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249382/original/file-20181206-128190-177kifa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249382/original/file-20181206-128190-177kifa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249382/original/file-20181206-128190-177kifa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249382/original/file-20181206-128190-177kifa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249382/original/file-20181206-128190-177kifa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249382/original/file-20181206-128190-177kifa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249382/original/file-20181206-128190-177kifa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">NSW Attorney General Mark Speakman embraces child abuse advocate and survivor Paul Gray after unveiling plans for new laws to jail those who cover up child abuse.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Recently in NSW, we saw an interesting variation on the familiar law and order auction. In the second last parliamentary sitting week for 2018, the Berejiklian government launched something of a pre-emptive strike ahead of the state election in March 2019. In the space of three days, the NSW parliament enacted <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/bills/pages/current-bills.aspx?view=ByTitle&tab=filter&house=both">seven major criminal law statutes</a>. Here we highlight some examples illustrating the diversity of ways criminal laws get made.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/Hansard/Pages/HansardResult.aspx#/docid/'HANSARD-1323879322-104603'">words of NSW Attorney General Mark Speakman</a>, the <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/bills/Pages/bill-details.aspx?pk=3603">Community Protection Legislation Amendment Bill 2018</a>:</p>
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<p>introduces a number of reforms aimed at keeping the community safe, including from the risk of terrorism and other high-risk offenders, bushfires, child abuse and the supply of drugs causing death.</p>
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<p>Here, a diverse range of harms are “knitted” together through a narrative of community fear, anxiety and need for protection. Despite these common themes, the changes to the criminal law made by this bill have different origins.</p>
<p>For example, the introduction of higher penalties for lighting bushfires was influenced by what’s been happening in other states, and a determination to “keep up”. As the attorney-general put it: this will “ensure that the New South Wales penalty is now the equal toughest in the country”.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249384/original/file-20181206-128196-n9fiu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249384/original/file-20181206-128196-n9fiu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249384/original/file-20181206-128196-n9fiu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249384/original/file-20181206-128196-n9fiu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249384/original/file-20181206-128196-n9fiu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1031&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249384/original/file-20181206-128196-n9fiu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1031&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249384/original/file-20181206-128196-n9fiu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1031&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A mourner places a candle to remember the 173 people who died in the Black Saturday bushfires of 2009 in forests on the outskirts of Melbourne and in the city’s hinterland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.lawsociety.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-11/Letter%20to%20Mr%20David%20Shoebridge%2C%20MLC%20-%20Community%20Protection%20Legislation%20Amendment%20Bill%202018%20%E2%80%93%20supply%20of%20drugs%20causing%20death%20-%2016%20November%202018.pdf">controversial</a> new homicide offence of drug supply causing death has a different back-story. After two <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-16/defqon-two-dead-after-music-festival-overdoses/10252848">drug-related deaths at the Defqon musical</a> festival in September this year, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian appointed an expert panel to advise the government on what law reform and other strategies could prevent further tragedies. A new offence was one of the <a href="https://static.nsw.gov.au/1540188213/Keepingpeoplesafe.pdf">panel’s recommendations</a>.</p>
<p>The same bill also increased penalties for the crime of concealing a child abuse offence – a crime introduced in June this year following recommendations of the <a href="https://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/">Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse</a>. <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/Hansard/Pages/HansardResult.aspx#/docid/'HANSARD-1323879322-104603'">Attorney-General Mark Speakman explained</a> that this amendment, just six months later, was because the government had:</p>
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<p>listened to the voices of the more than 13,000 people who signed a petition calling for tougher maximum penalties for the concealment of child abuse offences.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/luke-foleys-resignation-is-a-disaster-for-labor-but-may-not-bolster-berejiklian-much-either-106705">Luke Foley's resignation is a disaster for Labor but may not bolster Berejiklian much either</a>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/bills/Pages/Profiles/crimes-domestic-and-personal-violence-amendment-bill-2018.aspx">Crimes (Domestic and Personal) Violence Amendment Bill 2018</a> expanded the definition of the <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/capva2007347/s13.html">existing stalking or intimidation offence</a> in NSW to cover “cyberbullying”. The attorney-general <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/Hansard/Pages/HansardResult.aspx#/docid/'HANSARD-1323879322-104058'">told parliament</a> the “bill will be known colloquially as "Dolly’s Law”, in tribute to 14-year-old Amy “Dolly” Everett, who <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-12/dolly-everett-memorial-in-katherine/9323118">tragically took her own life</a> in January this year following persistent bullying and abuse, including cyberbullying. </p>
<p>He thanked Dolly’s parents who had “worked tirelessly, campaigning and raising awareness about the potentially devastating effects of bullying and cyberbullying”.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/bills/Pages/bill-details.aspx?pk=3566">Crimes Legislation Amendment Bill 2018</a> created a new offence of strangulation. A 2017, <a href="http://www.coroners.justice.nsw.gov.au/Pages/Publications/dv_annual_reports.aspx">NSW Domestic Violence Death Review Team</a> report found the offence of choking did not cover all the ways in which domestic violence strangulation can occur. This new offence is an example of change underpinned by careful consideration of the available evidence by an expert body and that can rightly be said to fill a gap in the criminal law.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pathologies-of-populism-82593">The pathologies of populism</a>
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<p>When many countries are grappling with <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australia-demonstrates-the-rise-of-populism-is-about-more-than-economics/">political populism</a>, it is timely to reflect on how the community figures in these examples: victims whose loss is the catalyst for change; a collective of persons in need of protection; and law-makers. The NSW attorney-general <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/Hansard/Pages/HansardResult.aspx#/docid/'HANSARD-1323879322-104058'">described</a> some recent criminal law changes as “citizen law that if individual citizens lobby hard enough and speak to politicians they can effect change”. He hoped that “in some small way this will restore some people’s confidence in our democracy and the ability of citizens to effect change”.</p>
<p>The idea of “citizen law” is interesting. Is it the process that most inspires confidence and democratic legitimacy? What is gained (and lost) if a government is more attuned to the voices of regular people, including victims and their families, than to experts, like lawyers and academics?</p>
<p>The answers are not straightforward. Our research suggests it is important to avoid simplistic accounts of what drives criminal law-making. And, as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/24/labor-secures-stunning-victory-in-victorian-election-as-voters-reject-fear">Victorian election result</a> shows, politicians should be wary of putting all their eggs in the <a href="https://electionwatch.unimelb.edu.au/articles/victorian-election-how-are-the-major-parties-addressing-the-law-and-order-paradox">law and order basket</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107701/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke McNamara receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Quilter receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>At one time, law and order was seen by some as a sure-fire voter winner in elections - but that’s changing after a concerted effort by Victoria’s opposition appeared to backfire badly.Luke McNamara, Professor of Law, UNSW SydneyJulia Quilter, Associate Professor of Law, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1084882018-12-11T08:55:26Z2018-12-11T08:55:26ZVictorian upper house greatly distorted by group voting tickets; federal Labor still dominant in Newspoll<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249922/original/file-20181211-76959-r6olrs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Victorian Reason Party MP Fiona Patten and supporters react as she's re-elected to the Victorian upper house.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Penny Stephens</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The November 24 Victorian election will result in an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/legislative-council/">upper house</a> of 18 Labor out of 40 (up four since the 2014 election), 11 Coalition (down five), one Green (down four), three Derryn Hinch Justice, two Liberal Democrats, and one each for Animal Justice, Sustainable Australia, Transport Matters, Fiona Patten and Shooters, Fishers & Farmers.</p>
<p>Overall upper house <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/Summary.html">vote shares</a> were 39.2% Labor (up 5.8% <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2014/Summary.html">since 2014</a>), 29.4% Coalition (down 6.7%), 9.3% Greens (down 1.5%), 3.8% Hinch Justice, 3.0% Shooters, 2.5% Liberal Democrats, 2.5% Animal Justice and 2.1% Labour DLP. In regions where the DLP and Lib Dems were to the left of Labor and the Liberals respectively on the ballot paper, they had far higher vote shares through name confusion.</p>
<p>Labor won 45% of upper house seats on 39.2% of votes, and the Coalition 27.5% of seats on 29.4% of votes. The Greens won just 2.5% of seats despite 9.3% of votes, while Hinch Justice won 7.5% of seats on 3.8% of votes, and the Lib Dems 5% of seats on 2.5% of votes. Transport Matters and Sustainable Australia combined won 5% of seats on 1.4% of votes. This was not a good advertisement for democracy.</p>
<p>It is deeply disappointing that Labor made no effort during the last term to reform the flawed group voting ticket system.</p>
<p>Although the result is a bad outcome for democracy, Labor will probably be happy. If the Coalition opposes, they need three of 11 crossbenchers to reach the 21 votes needed to pass legislation. The Greens, Animal Justice and Patten are likely to be Labor allies on progressive legislation. In the last parliament, Labor, the Greens and Patten had 20 combined votes.</p>
<p>There are eight regions in Victoria that each return five members. A quota is one-sixth of the vote, or 16.7%. </p>
<p>In the federal Senate, voters are instructed to number at least six boxes above the line, though a single “1” above the line is still formal. Preferences are set by voters, not by parties. </p>
<p>The table below shows the actual results and what I believe the results would have been had the federal Senate system been in place. Under the Senate system, the most likely outcome would be 19 Labor, 14 Coalition, four Greens, two Shooters and one Hinch Justice. The actual results would probably match the federal Senate results in just two of the eight regions</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249894/original/file-20181211-76968-1fo37xx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249894/original/file-20181211-76968-1fo37xx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249894/original/file-20181211-76968-1fo37xx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249894/original/file-20181211-76968-1fo37xx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249894/original/file-20181211-76968-1fo37xx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249894/original/file-20181211-76968-1fo37xx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249894/original/file-20181211-76968-1fo37xx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249894/original/file-20181211-76968-1fo37xx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Victorian upper house: actual results compared with results using federal Senate system.</span>
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<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/emet/">Eastern Metro</a>, Labor had 2.22 quotas, the Liberals 2.17, the Greens 0.54 and the Lib Dems 0.25. Labor preferences would easily elect the Greens under the Senate system. Instead, Transport Matters won from just 0.62%, or 0.04 quotas.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/nmet/">Northern Metro</a>, Labor had 2.55 quotas, the Greens 1.00, the Liberals 0.99, the Socialists 0.25, the DLP 0.25 and Fiona Patten 0.20. Labor would win three seats under the Senate system, but lost its third seat to Patten in the actual count.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/seme/">South-Eastern Metro</a>, Labor had 3.00 quotas, the Liberals 1.74 and the Greens 0.33. The Liberals would have won the last seat under the Senate system. Instead, the Liberal Democrats, with just 0.84% or 0.05 quotas, won the final seat.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/smet/">Southern Metro</a>, the Liberals won 2.30 quotas, Labor 2.07 and the Greens 0.81. The Greens would easily win the last seat under the Senate system. Instead it went to Sustainable Australia, on just 1.32%, or 0.08 quotas.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/wmet/">Western Metro</a>, Labor won 2.78 quotas, the Liberals 1.28, the Greens 0.52 and Hinch Justice 0.41. With assistance from right-wing preferences, Hinch Justice would probably beat the Greens for the final spot under the Senate system. This is one occasion where the actual result would probably occur under a better system.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/evic/">Eastern Victoria</a>, the Coalition won 2.05 quotas, Labor 2.02, the Greens 0.40, the Shooters 0.30, Hinch Justice 0.27 and the Lib Dems 0.24. The Shooters or Hinch Justice could have overtaken the Greens under the Senate system; the Shooters won the final seat, matching a possibility of the Senate system</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/nvic/">Northern Victoria</a>, Labor won 1.91 quotas, the Coalition 1.87, the Shooters 0.47, the Greens 0.39, Hinch Justice 0.29 and the Lib Dems 0.23. If the Senate system applied, the results would be two each for Labor and the Coalition, and one Shooter. Instead, Labor won two, and the Coalition, Hinch Justice and the Lib Dems one each.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/wvic/">Western Victoria</a>, Labor won 2.29 quotas, the Coalition 1.80, the Greens 0.45, Hinch Justice 0.27, the Shooters 0.27 and Animal Justice 0.17. Under the Senate system, Labor preferences would have helped the Greens win the final seat, with the Coalition certain of a second seat. Instead, Labor won two, and the Coalition, Animal Justice and Hinch Justice one each.</p>
<h2>Liberals retain Ripon after recount</h2>
<p>In the lower house seat of <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/RiponDistrict.html">Ripon</a>, the Liberals trailed Labor by 31 votes on the provisional results, but won after a recount by 15 votes. Final <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/Summary.html">lower house</a> seat totals were 55 Labor out of 88 (up eight since the 2014 election), 27 Coalition (down 11), three Greens (up one) and three independents (up two).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/historical-fall-of-liberal-seats-in-victoria-micros-likely-to-win-ten-seats-in-upper-house-labor-leads-in-nsw-108047">Historical fall of Liberal seats in Victoria; micros likely to win ten seats in upper house; Labor leads in NSW</a>
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<h2>Newspoll: 55-45 to federal Labor</h2>
<p>This week’s <a href="https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2018/12/web-news-newspoll-12-18-replacement.pdf">federal Newspoll</a>, conducted December 6-9 from a sample of 1,730, gave Labor its third successive 55-45 lead. Primary votes were 41% Labor (up one since last fortnight), 35% Coalition (up one), 9% Greens (steady) and 7% One Nation (down one). This is the final Newspoll of 2018.</p>
<p>This is the third consecutive Newspoll in which Labor’s primary vote has exceeded 40%. Other than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s ousting, Labor’s primary had only reached 40% once since Julia Gillard’s early days as PM. Analyst Kevin Bonham says no government has recovered from such a dire position in aggregate polling to win with five months left.</p>
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<p>In the final <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll">four Newspolls</a> under Turnbull, the Coalition trailed by just 51-49. In the last three Newspolls, they have trailed 55-45. It appears that ousting Turnbull was a big mistake.</p>
<p>42% were satisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance (down one), and 45% were dissatisfied (up three), for a net approval of -3, down four points. Bill Shorten’s net approval was down two points to -15. Morrison led Shorten by 44-36 as better PM (46-34 last fortnight).</p>
<p>55% thought Labor would win the next election, while just 24% thought the Coalition would win. By 48-30, voters opposed Shorten’s plan to <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f4aef30d2cf7f0b3def6e4d7dc5f137e?width=650">abolish franking credit</a> cash refunds for retirees (50-33 in March).</p>
<p>By 46-40, voters did not think Turnbull was disloyal to the Coalition, though Coalition voters thought Turnbull disloyal by 56-34. By 56-36, voters thought Turnbull should be allowed to speak his mind, rather than keep his thoughts private. By 56-29, voters did not think Turnbull should be expelled from the Liberal party.</p>
<p>I think the Coalition’s best hope of winning the next election is for the economy to be very good, with strong wages growth. However on December 5, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-economy-q3-gdp-2018-12">ABS reported</a> that the economy grew just 0.3% in the September quarter, well below expectations.</p>
<h2>Essential: 54-46 to Labor</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Essential-Report-041218-1.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted November 29 to December 2 from a sample of 1,032, Labor led by 54-46, a two-point gain for Labor since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up four), 38% Coalition (up one), 10% Greens (down one) and 6% One Nation (down one).</p>
<p>Morrison’s ratings were 42% approve (up one since November) and 34% disapprove (down three), for a net approval of +8. Shorten’s net approval fell two points to -8. Morrison led Shorten by 40-29 as better PM (41-29 in November).</p>
<p>24% thought restricting negative gearing to new homes would lower house prices, 21% thought it would increase house prices, 27% make no difference and 29% didn’t know. 37% thought restricting negative gearing would increase rents, 14% lower them, 24% make no difference and 26% didn’t know.</p>
<p>53% thought Australia was not doing enough to address climate change (down three since October), 24% thought we were doing enough (up one), and 9% doing too much (up two). By 39-30, voters supported ending cash refunds from dividend imputation. The question was long, with information that many voters would not be aware of.</p>
<h2>ReachTEL national and seat polls</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1071271712556179456">ReachTEL national poll</a> for the Australian Youth Climate Coalition, conducted December 4 from a sample of 2,350, gave Labor a 54-46 lead. Primary votes were 38.2% Labor, 37.0% Coalition, 10.6% Greens and 6.9% One Nation. Sky News was commissioning ReachTEL polls once a month until June, but since then the only ReachTEL national polls have been from left-wing sources.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/12/07/bludgertrack-54-3-45-7-labor/">Poll Bludger</a> has details of ReachTEL polls in the Victorian federal seats of Corangamite and Higgins. The Liberals have no margin after a redistribution in Corangamite, and are trailing 59-41. In Higgins, the Liberals have a 10.3% margin, but are trailing 53-47. Seat polls are unreliable, but these are massive swings to Labor.</p>
<h2>Facing heavy defeat, Theresa May postpones Commons vote on Brexit deal</h2>
<p>UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union was scheduled to be voted on by the House of Commons today. But faced with many defections from both the left and right of her Conservative party, and unhelpful opposition parties, May has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-11/brexit-uk-pm-theresa-may-postpones-vote-on-deal/10603744">pulled the vote</a>.</p>
<p>The problem for May is that there is probably no deal that is agreeable to the European Union that can pass the Commons. Unless a deal passes the Commons, or some other option like a second Brexit referendum passes, the UK will crash out of the European Union on March 29, 2019. Such a “no deal” Brexit is likely to greatly damage both the UK economy and the Conservative party – see my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/uks-brexit-debacle-could-lead-to-labour-landslide-greens-not-far-right-surge-in-germany/">personal website</a> for more.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The final results post-election Victorian upper house are not a ringing endorsement for democracy - and provide a strong case for reform.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1080472018-12-05T05:16:41Z2018-12-05T05:16:41ZHistorical fall of Liberal seats in Victoria; micros likely to win ten seats in upper house; Labor leads in NSW<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248948/original/file-20181205-186055-3ycxa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Victorian Liberal leadership hopeful John Pesutto has lost his blue-ribbon seat of Hawthorn. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Crosling</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While it is possible that two seats could change, Labor appears to have won 56 of the 88 seats in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Victorian_state_election">Victorian lower house</a>, up nine seats since the 2014 election, the Coalition won 26 seats (down 12), the Greens three seats (up one) and independents three seats (up two).</p>
<p>These results reflect changes since the 2014 election, and do not account for Labor’s loss of <a href="https://theconversation.com/contradictory-polls-in-queensland-while-the-greens-storm-northcote-in-victoria-87516">Northcote to the Greens at a byelection</a>, which Labor regained at the general. Party defections are also ignored.</p>
<p>Labor’s unexpectedly crushing victory was capped by triumphs in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/hawt/">Hawthorn</a> (50.4-49.6) and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/hawt/">Nepean</a> (50.9-49.1). Labor had not won Hawthorn since 1952, and Nepean (formerly known as Dromana) since 1982. It also came close to winning <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/caul/">Caulfield</a> (a 50.3-49.7 loss), which has never been Labor-held since its creation in 1927.</p>
<p>The 8-10 point <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/list/">swings to Labor</a> in Hawthorn, Nepean and other affluent Liberal heartland seats such as Brighton and Malvern appear to demonstrate well-educated voters’ anger with the Liberals’ law and order campaign, and the federal Liberals’ ousting of Malcolm Turnbull.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-has-landslide-win-in-victoria-107514">Labor has landslide win in Victoria</a>
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<p>Labor was assisted in Victoria by a strong state economy, and an unpopular federal Coalition government. The national economy is currently good, and this could assist the federal government if they could stop fighting among themselves.</p>
<p>While Labor had massive wins in Melbourne and its outskirts, and increased its margins in regional cities, it did not perform well by comparison in country areas. Labor only gained one country seat, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/ripo/">Ripon</a>, and that was by just 31 votes on a swing under 1%; there could be a recount in Ripon. </p>
<p>The Greens held Melbourne and Prahran, and gained Brunswick from Labor. In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/prah/">Prahran</a>, Green Sam Hibbins was third on primaries, trailing Labor by 0.8%. On preferences of left-wing micros, he <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/12/05/victorian-election-endgame/">overtook Labor</a> by 0.7%, and easily defeated the Liberals on Labor preferences. This is the second consecutive election in which Hibbins has come from third on primary votes to win Prahran.</p>
<p>Russell Northe, who defected from the Nationals in the last parliament, retained <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/morw/">Morwell</a> as an independent. Ali Cupper, who had contested <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/mild/">Mildura</a> in 2010 as a Labor candidate, gained it as an independent from the Nationals. Independent Suzanna Sheed retained <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/shep/">Shepparton</a>, a seat she gained from the Nationals in 2014.</p>
<p>Near-final <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/">statewide primary votes</a> were 42.8% Labor (up 4.7% since the 2014 election), 35.2% Coalition (down 6.7%) and 10.7% Greens (down 0.8%). It is unlikely we will have an official Labor vs Coalition statewide two party count until next week, but The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/results/vic2018results.htm?">Poll Bludger</a> estimates Labor won this count by 57.4-42.6, a 5.5% swing to Labor.</p>
<p>Final <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/24/newspoll-53-5-46-5-labor-victoria/">pre-election polls</a> greatly overstated the Coalition and understated Labor, as shown by the table below. The only poll that came close to the result was a <a href="https://vnpa.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Polling-13-Nov-2018.pdf">ReachTEL poll</a> for a left-wing organisation, taken 11 days before the election, that gave Labor a 56-44 lead.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248915/original/file-20181205-100838-g97uqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248915/original/file-20181205-100838-g97uqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248915/original/file-20181205-100838-g97uqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248915/original/file-20181205-100838-g97uqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248915/original/file-20181205-100838-g97uqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248915/original/file-20181205-100838-g97uqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248915/original/file-20181205-100838-g97uqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Victorian election’s poor polls.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bold numbers in the table indicate a poll estimate that was within 1% of the results. All polls had the Greens right, but missed on Labor and the Coalition.</p>
<h2>Micro parties still likely to win ten upper house seats</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/legislative-council/">ABC calculator</a> currently gives Labor 18 of the 40 upper house seats, the Coalition 11, the Greens just one, and ten for all others. Others include four Derryn Hinch Justice, two Transport Matters, one Animal Justice, one Liberal Democrat, one Aussie Battler and one Sustainable Australia.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-pares-back-losses-in-late-counting-as-predicted-chaos-eventuates-in-upper-house-107516">Coalition pares back losses in late counting, as predicted chaos eventuates in upper house</a>
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<p>The upper house has eight regions that each elect five members. The three country regions are very close to completion of their counts, while the city regions lag. In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/nvic/">Northern Victoria</a>, Labor will win two seats, the Coalition one, Hinch Justice one and Liberal Democrats one. In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/wvic/">Western Victoria</a>, Labor will win two, the Coalition one, Animal Justice one and Hinch Justice one.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/evic/">Eastern Victoria</a>, the calculator has Labor and the Coalition each winning two seats with one for Aussie Battler. However, <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/11/victorian-upper-house-live.html">Kevin Bonham</a> says that Aussie Battler is ahead of Hinch Justice at a critical point by just 0.11%, and this lead will be overturned with below-the-line votes. The Shooters will win the final Eastern Victoria seat.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/emet/">Eastern Metro</a>, with the count at 87.2%, there will be two Labor, two Liberals and Transport Matters wins the final seat from just 0.6% (0.04 quotas). In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/smet/">Southern Metro</a>, two Labor and two Liberals win. The Greens, with 0.79 of a quota, are easily beaten to the last seat by Sustainable Australia, with just 1.3% or 0.08 quotas.</p>
<p>While the figure used by the ABC is the rechecked percentage counted, the electoral commission has been providing actual primary counts in Word files, which are ahead of the rechecked count in Metro regions.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/seme/">South-Eastern Metro</a>, Labor will win three seats and the Liberals one. Bonham says Transport Matters could be excluded at a critical point, and fail to take the final seat, in which case it goes to the Liberal Democrats, who had an even lower vote than Transport Matters in that region (1.2% vs 0.8%).</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/wmet/">Western Metro</a>, Labor will win three seats and the Liberals one. The last seat is likely to go to Hinch Justice, which won 6.9% in that region. However, the Shooters, with just 1.9%, could win the final seat.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/nmet/">Northern Metro</a>, two Labor and one Green are certain winners. In Bonham’s more up-to-date figures, the Liberals win one seat, and the final seat is probably a contest between Hinch Justice and Fiona Patten.</p>
<p>Labor and the Coalition are likely to win the 18 and 11 seats respectively that the calculator currently gives them. The ten micros could be a little different from the ABC’s current projection.</p>
<p>The group voting tickets are excessively complex, and it would be far easier to call these seats with a more sensible system.</p>
<h2>NSW Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor, ReachTEL: 51-49</h2>
<p>The New South Wales election will be held on March 23, 2019. A <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/12/01/reachtel-51-49-labor-new-south-wales/">YouGov Galaxy poll</a> for The Daily Telegraph, conducted November 29-30 from a sample of 903, gave Labor a 52-48 lead; this is the first NSW Galaxy poll since the 2015 election. A ReachTEL poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted November 29 from a sample of 1,560, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since a September ReachTEL poll.</p>
<p>Primary votes in the Galaxy poll were 39% Labor, 37% Coalition, 9% Greens and 8% One Nation. In ReachTEL, primary votes, after excluding 3.1% undecided, were 37.7% Coalition, 35.2% Labor, 9.9% Greens and 7.7% One Nation. Labor’s primary vote is four points lower in ReachTEL than Galaxy.</p>
<p>After replacing Luke Foley as Labor leader, Michael Daley appears to be benefiting from a honeymoon. He trails incumbent Gladys Berejiklian 33-31 in Galaxy, and leads her 54.2-45.8 in ReachTEL as better Premier. ReachTEL’s forced choice better PM/Premier questions usually benefit opposition leaders.</p>
<p>State parties tend to do better when the opposite party is in power federally, and the current federal government is unpopular. It appears that the federal election will be held in May 2019, and this is bad news for the NSW Coalition, which has to face voters first. In ReachTEL, voters said by 50-36 that federal politics would play a role in their state election decision.</p>
<p>By 58-36, voters in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/i-will-not-be-bullied-daley-holds-firm-on-stadiums-policy-20181202-p50jpa.html">ReachTEL opposed</a> the NSW government’s stadium policy, which includes knocking down and rebuilding stadiums.</p>
<h2>Newspoll: 55-45 to federal Labor, but Morrison’s ratings recover</h2>
<p>Last week’s federal <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll">Newspoll</a>, conducted November 22-25 – the same weekend as the Victorian election – from a sample of 1,720, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 40% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (down one), 9% Greens (steady) and 8% One Nation (up two).</p>
<p>43% were satisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance (up four), and 42% were dissatisfied (down five), for a net approval of +1, up nine points. Bill Shorten’s net approval was up two points to -13. Morrison led Shorten by 46-34 as better PM (42-36 three weeks ago).</p>
<p>By 40-34, voters opposed <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/48de9487c5afc01aa3bc1ac14952a85f?width=650">moving the Australian embassy</a> in Israel to Jerusalem. After being told that Indonesia and Malaysia had raised concerns about the embassy move, voters thought by 46-34 that Morrison should announce the move will not take place, rather than ignore those countries’ concerns.</p>
<p>Newspoll was three points better for Labor than two polls last fortnight, which both had Labor leading by just 52-48. The PM’s ratings are usually a good guide to voting intentions, so the hope for the Coalition is that Morrison’s lift could soon lift the Coalition. This poll was taken before last week’s parliamentary session.</p>
<h2>UK Brexit deal vote on December 11</h2>
<p>The UK House of Commons will decide whether to reject or approve PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union on December 11. </p>
<p><a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-deal-vote-tory-mps-likely-block-theresa-mays-draft-withdrawal-agreement/">Indications</a> are that the deal will be rejected by a large margin, with about 100 Conservative MPs set to vote against the deal. You can read my article on the probable consequences of a “no-deal” Brexit on my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/uks-brexit-debacle-could-lead-to-labour-landslide-greens-not-far-right-surge-in-germany/">personal website</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats such as Hawthorn and Nepean have fallen to Labor in the wash-up of Labor’s thumping state election win.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1075832018-11-25T13:19:25Z2018-11-25T13:19:25ZView from The Hill: Labor’s 55-45% Newspoll lead adds to Liberals’ weekend of woe<p>Labor has maintained a 55-45% two-party lead in the latest <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/newspoll-coalition-slides-but-scott-morrison-gains-popularity/news-story/1972b14dd892a090650e94f93d38fc02">Newspoll</a>,
in a weekend of woe for the Morrison government, which is trying to
play down the federal contribution to the Victorian Liberal wipeout.</p>
<p>The Coalition’s primary vote fell for the third consecutive
time, to 34%, in a poll that if replicated at an election would see a loss of 21 seats. Labor’s primary vote remained at 40%. One Nation rose 2
points to 8%; the Greens were steady on 9%.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison boosted his lead over Bill Shorten as better PM to 12
points, leading 46-34% compared with 42-36% a fortnight ago. Morrison
has a net positive satisfaction rating of plus one, improving from
minus 8 in the last poll.</p>
<p>The poll will reinforce Coalition gloom after Saturday’s Victorian
election which saw a swing to the Labor government estimated by ABC
election expert Antony Green at around 4% in two-party terms. While an
ALP win was expected, the stunning size of it came as a surprise.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-has-landslide-win-in-victoria-107514">Labor has landslide win in Victoria</a>
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<p>Even assuming the Victoria election was mainly won (or lost) on state
issues, there are clearly federal factors and lessons in this smashing
of the Liberals, which if translated federally would potentially put at risk half a dozen Victorian seats.</p>
<p>As Premier Daniel Andrews said, Victoria is a “progressive” state. It
stands to reason that Liberal infighting and the dumping of Malcolm
Turnbull, the trashing of the National Energy Guarantee and the
talking down of renewables, and the broad rightward lean of the
federal Coalition alienated many middle-of-the-road Liberal voters.</p>
<p>The anecdotal evidence backs the conclusion that Victorians were
sending strong messages to the Liberal party generally, including the
federal party.</p>
<p>But are the federal Liberals willing to hear those message? And anyway,
does Morrison have the capacity to respond to them effectively?</p>
<p>Morrison has so far demonstrated no personal vision for the country,
and his play-for-the-moment tactics are being increasingly seen as
unconvincing.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-labors-thumping-win-reveals-how-out-of-step-with-voters-liberals-have-become-105574">Victorian Labor's thumping win reveals how out of step with voters Liberals have become</a>
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<p>Morrison took the unusual course of not saying anything about Victoria
on Saturday night or Sunday. He will meet the Victorian federal
Liberals on Monday to discuss the outcome.</p>
<p>Ahead of that meeting Treasurer Josh Frydenberg - who is from Victoria and is deputy Liberal leader - played down the federal implications. While conceding “the noise from Canberra certainly didn’t help”, he claimed in an ABC Sunday night interview that the lessons to be learned federally were about grassroots campaigning and the need to rebut “Labor lies”. He would not concede a recalibration of policy was needed.</p>
<p>Some in the right will try to write Victoria off as unrepresentative
of the nation, just as they did Wentworth. This flies in the face of
reality – there were big swings in the eastern suburbs and the sandbelt,
the sort of areas the Liberals would expect to be their middle class strongholds.</p>
<p>The government needs to pitch much more to the centre in policy terms
but it will be hard to do so.</p>
<p>Given its current positioning, how could it sound moderate on energy
and climate policy? It can’t go back to the NEG. It is stuck with its
obsessions about coal and its distrust of, or at least equivocation
about, renewables, as well as its business-bashing threat of
divestitures.</p>
<p>On issues such as coal and climate change, the party’s eyes have been
turned obsessively to Queensland, where there is a raft of marginal
seats, without sufficient regard to those in Victoria and NSW. Even in
relation to Queensland, there has been a failure to adequately
recognise that that state is not monolithic when it comes to issues
and priorities.</p>
<p>The right is unlikely to stop its determined effort to take over the
party, whatever the cost. Indeed some on the right will argue that the Morrison strategy should be to sharpen the policy differences further, rather than looking to the centre.</p>
<p>The right’s mood will be darkened by the Saturday dumping of rightwing senator Jim Molan to an unwinnable position on the NSW Liberal ticket. Molan has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-25/jim-molan-says-he-cannot-defend-party-on-television/10552708">pulled</a> out from Monday’s Q&A program; the ABC tweeted that he’d said he could “no longer defend the Liberals”.</p>
<p>As if the Victorian result was not sobering enough, the government
this week begins the final fortnight of parliament for the year in minority
government, with independent Kerryn Phelps sworn in on Monday as
Turnbull’s replacement in Wentworth.</p>
<p>The government wants the focus on national security legislation but
other issues will be political irritants for it.</p>
<p>Labor and crossbenchers are pushing the case for a federal
anti-corruption body - the sort of initiative that would appeal to
voters highly distrustful of politicians.</p>
<p>Crossbenchers Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie will introduce a
private member’s bill. 34 former judges have signed an <a href="https://nb.tai.org.au/integrityopenletter">open letter</a>
advertisement calling for a national integrity commission.</p>
<p>They said: “Existing federal integrity agencies lack the necessary
jurisdiction, powers and know-how to investigate properly the
impartiality and bona fides of decisions made by, and
conduct of, the federal government and public sector.”</p>
<p>The government is resisting a new body but will need some convincing
alternative response.</p>
<p>The government will also be under pressure over Morrison’s pledge to
legislate to remove the opportunity for religious schools to
discriminate against gay students. Negotiations with the opposition
have been at an impasse, although the government says it still wants
legislation through this fortnight.</p>
<p>In the middle of the fortnight Morrison attends the G20, where he is
expected to have a meeting with Donald Trump. One would assume they
will canvass the Australian government’s consideration of moving our
embassy to Jerusalem, with Trump urging Morrison to go ahead with
the controversial move.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107583/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The federal Coalition’s primary vote fell for the third consecutive time, to 34%, in a poll that if replicated at an election would cost 21 seats.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1075162018-11-25T01:41:52Z2018-11-25T01:41:52ZCoalition pares back losses in late counting, as predicted chaos eventuates in upper house<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247091/original/file-20181124-149314-185tpfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">original</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On election night, the ABC had Labor winning 58 of the 88 seats, to 20 for the Coalition. After late counting of pre-poll and postal votes, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/">ABC now shows</a> Labor has won 52 of the 88 lower house seats, the Coalition 24, two Independents and ten seats are undecided, with 71% of enrolled voters counted.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-has-landslide-win-in-victoria-107514">Labor has landslide win in Victoria</a>
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<p>Statewide primary votes are currently 42.9% Labor (up 4.8% since the 2014 election), 35.8% Coalition (down 6.3%) and 9.8% Greens (down 1.6%). As much of the Coalition-favouring pre-polls and postals have been counted, I expect the Greens to gain in late counting as left-leaning polling-day absent votes are counted.</p>
<p>In two party Labor vs Coalition terms, The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/results/vic2018results.htm">Poll Bludger</a> has Labor winning by 56.0-44.0 in seats that currently have such a count – that is, excluding Labor vs Greens counts in inner city seats, and Coalition vs independents in the regions. In seats with a two party count, the swing to Labor is 5.3%, which would be a 57.3-42.7 thrashing if projected to the whole state.</p>
<p>The Liberals have lost <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/list/?selector=changing&sort=az">eastern suburbs heartland</a> seats such as Mount Waverley, Burwood, Ringwood and Box Hill to Labor, but they have retained Caulfield and likely Sandringham, which looked likely to be losses earlier in the night. In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/hawt/">Hawthorn</a>, the Liberals lead by 53 votes, with many absent votes to come.</p>
<p>While the ABC currently lists <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/melb/">Melbourne</a> as in doubt, Greens-favouring absent votes will easily win it for the Greens. Labor leads the Greens by 72 votes in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/brun/">Brunswick</a>, and will probably lose on absent votes. Labor has clearly retained <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/rich/">Richmond</a> against the Greens, and will regain <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/nort/">Northcote</a>, which they lost at a byelection. In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/prah/">Prahran</a>, whichever of Labor or Greens finishes second will defeat the Liberals on the other’s preferences.</p>
<p>An independent has gained <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/mild/">Mildura</a> from the Nationals, and an independent has retained Shepparton. According to analyst <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/11/victoria-2018-live.html">Kevin Bonham</a>, independents are some chance in Geelong, Benambra, South-West Coast, Morwell, Melton and Pascoe Vale; in some of these seats, independents are currently third, but could move ahead of a major party, then receive that major party’s preferences. These seats do not yet have a two candidate count against the independent; the ABC is guessing the two candidate result.</p>
<h2>Micro parties could win ten upper house seats</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/legislative-council/">ABC’s upper house</a> calculator currently has Labor winning 19 of the 40 upper house seats, the Coalition ten, the Greens one, and ten from other parties. These others include four Derryn Hinch Justice, two Transport Matters, one Aussie Battler, one Animal Justice, one Liberal Democrat and one Sustainable Australia.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-worst-polls-since-turnbull-chaos-likely-in-victorian-upper-house-107176">Poll wrap: Labor's worst polls since Turnbull; chaos likely in Victorian upper house</a>
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<p>Overall upper house <a href="https://tallyroom.vec.vic.gov.au/vtr/tallyroom.html">vote shares</a> were 40.8% Labor, 28.2% Coalition, 9.2% Greens, 3.4% Hinch Justice and 0.6% Transport Matters. It is ludicrous that a party with 0.6% of the vote could win one more seat than a party with 9.2%, or that a party with 3.4% could win three more seats than the Greens.</p>
<p>The upper house count is only at 42.5%, while the lower house is at 71.1%. The pre-poll and postal votes that have assisted the Coalition in the lower house have not yet been tallied for the upper house. When they are counted, Labor will drop back and the Coalition will gain.</p>
<p>The below-the-line vote rate increased to about 10% at this election, from 6% in 2014. As the ABC calculator assumes that all upper house house votes are above-the-line ticket votes, errors can occur if the calculator margin at a critical point is close. <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/11/victorian-upper-house-live.html">Bonham</a> thinks the Coalition will do a bit better at the expense of micro parties, but he still thinks there will be at least six micro party members.</p>
<p>If Labor wins 19 upper house seats, they will be in a strong position in the upper house. Since the election was a Labor landslide, they performed well in the upper house. Had Labor done worse, there would have been some incentive for them to attempt to reform group voting tickets, but this is now unlikely to happen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107516/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Meanwhile, Labor’s strong win means it will unlikely have an incentive for desperately-needed upper house reform.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1055742018-11-25T01:02:49Z2018-11-25T01:02:49ZVictorian Labor’s thumping win reveals how out of step with voters Liberals have become<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247096/original/file-20181125-149335-ylv0jn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A jubilant Daniel Andrews celebrates a resounding win in the Victorian election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Daniel Pockett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-has-landslide-win-in-victoria-107514">commanding return to office</a> of the Andrews government emphatically reaffirms that Labor is the natural ruling party in Victoria. By the time the state’s next election is due in November 2022, Labor will have presided over Spring Street for three-quarters of the previous four decades.</p>
<p>That ascendancy is replicated in federal election results: the ALP has won the two-party preferred vote in Victoria on 12 of the past 14 occasions. The flipside is that Victoria has become foreign ground for the Liberal Party. It seems almost unimaginable that this was once the state dubbed the “jewel in the Liberal crown”.</p>
<p>If Labor’s re-election consolidates an established trend in Victorian politics, the scale of the victory (it has invited comparisons with the ALP’s <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/how-can-we-explain-the-bracks-landslide-20021206-gduvxh.html">Steve “Bracks-slide” of 2002</a>) and the terms on which it has been won are remarkable.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-election-the-scandals-sloganeering-and-key-issues-to-watch-105495">Victoria election: the scandals, sloganeering and key issues to watch</a>
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<p>From the moment he won office in 2014, Daniel Andrews styled himself as an assertive and activist premier. This has been exemplified by an ambitious infrastructure agenda, but also a willingness to barge his way through <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/police-red-shirts-probe-has-been-undermined-from-within-insider-says-20181121-p50hg0.html">controversies</a> unapologetically.</p>
<p>Andrews’ buttoned-up Clark Kent like exterior has also belied an adventurism on social reform highlighted by Victoria becoming the first Australian state to <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-better-understand-victorias-assisted-dying-laws-these-five-articles-will-help-88310">legalise voluntary assisted dying</a> and other initiatives such as embarking on negotiating a <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-treaty-with-indigenous-peoples-must-address-vexed-questions-of-sovereignty-98758">treaty with the local Indigenous community</a>.</p>
<p>Lacking the every-man touch of Bracks, Andrews has never seemed especially fussed about courting popularity and has mostly eschewed media contrivances to leaven his image. Neither has he sought to disguise that he is unambiguously a creature of the Labor Party, nor camouflaged his government’s closeness to the trade union movement.</p>
<p>Only last month, Andrews boldly marched at the head of an ACTU-organised rally in support of strengthened industrial rights and improved conditions for workers. On Saturday night, he made a conspicuous point of thanking the labour movement in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/wipeout-for-the-liberals-as-andrews-surges-to-victory-on-huge-red-wave-20181124-p50i53.html">his victory speech</a>. All of this has inflamed his detractors (not least News Limited’s Herald Sun), yet Andrews has remained defiantly unmoved.</p>
<p>Arguably, there is a risk in this audacity that might grow greater with Andrews emboldened by winning a second term. And there remains a danger that, despite Labor’s expansive infrastructure program, his government will be overwhelmed by Melbourne’s exponential growth and the enormous strains this is placing on services.</p>
<p>For now, though, one cannot deny Andrews’ achievement. Pledged to serve another four years, he is on track to become the state’s second longest-serving Labor premier and he has bequeathed his party a victory so sweeping it should guarantee two further terms.</p>
<p>For the Liberal Party, this is an abject result. It rubs salt into the wounds of the Coalition’s <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2014/Summary.html">first-term defeat in 2014</a>. Twice in Labor’s era of dominance of the past four decades, the Liberals have squandered office.</p>
<p>A combination of policy inertia and ill-discipline sowed the seeds of the premature fall of the Ted Baillieu-Denis Napthine government in 2014, while in 1999 Jeff Kennett’s tenure was cut short by hubris and insensitivity to rural and regional Victoria that paved the way for an 11-year Labor reign under Bracks and John Brumby.</p>
<p>For the second state election in succession, the Victorian Liberals have also been handicapped by the actions of their federal counterparts. When Victorians voted in 2014, the politically poisonous first budget of Tony Abbott’s government was still exercising their minds, while on this occasion there was the backdrop of the upheaval surrounding Malcolm Turnbull’s deposal as prime minister.</p>
<p>But this result shows the Liberals’ difficulties in Victoria run far deeper to matters of identity and philosophy (and organisation). Though Matthew Guy gestured towards broadening his election pitch through decentralisation policies, everything in the Liberal campaign was ultimately dwarfed by a muscular, conservative law and order agenda.</p>
<p>It was both narrow and discordant in a community of progressive sensibility, and one that is defined by complexity and diversity. It is a community where, for example, there are electorates in which greater than 50% of people were born in non-English speaking countries, electorates where more than 30% of the population are of Muslim faith, and electorates where nearly 50% have no religion. The contemporary Liberal Party appears bereft of a vocabulary to speak to this pluralism.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247097/original/file-20181125-149323-bffukx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247097/original/file-20181125-149323-bffukx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247097/original/file-20181125-149323-bffukx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247097/original/file-20181125-149323-bffukx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247097/original/file-20181125-149323-bffukx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247097/original/file-20181125-149323-bffukx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247097/original/file-20181125-149323-bffukx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Liberal leader Matthew Guy concedes defeat on Saturday night.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Crosling</span></span>
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<p>This problem of being out of step with the nation’s second largest and fastest growing state besets the Liberal Party federally as well. Yet Scott Morrison and many of his colleagues have shown scant evidence of recognising, let alone addressing, this dilemma.</p>
<p>Instead, they seem intent on appealing to a Queensland-focused “base”. The cost of this hewing to the right and what it potentially augurs for next year’s federal election in Victoria is now plain to see.</p>
<p>In a more immediate sense, there is a serious chance the Morrison government will be further destabilised by the recriminations flowing from this result. It is likely to deepen the divide in Liberal ranks between those who appear hell-bent on remaking the party in their own conservative self-image regardless of electoral consequences and those who understand that this is folly.</p>
<p>Lastly, what of the Greens? Since 2002, the Greens have stalked Labor in its once traditional heartland in Melbourne’s inner city. Buoyed by a heady triumph in the Northcote by-election 12 months ago, the Greens looked forward to this contest convinced they were on an irresistible forward march.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-greens-set-to-be-tested-on-a-number-of-fronts-in-the-victorian-election-105857">The Greens set to be tested on a number of fronts in the Victorian election</a>
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<p>That optimism was dented by defeat in the federal byelection in Batman in March. Now, after an unhappy campaign during which the party became mired in controversy over its culture towards women and struggled for traction against a progressive-credentialed government, the Greens have lost ground. Some experienced observers are speculating that we have witnessed “peak Green”.</p>
<p>That is probably premature. Yet, for Labor, the sullying of their tormentor’s image and disruption of their momentum is icing on its glorious election victory cake.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Strangio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Daniel Andrews’ resounding win has probably secured his party another two terms- and it will send chills down the spines of Liberals in Canberra.Paul Strangio, Associate Professor of Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1075142018-11-24T10:28:58Z2018-11-24T10:28:58ZLabor has landslide win in Victoria<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247083/original/file-20181124-149332-1oduvea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">ALP supporters celebrate as early counting shows the Andrews' government being reelected with an increased majority.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 42% of enrolled voters counted in the Victorian election, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/">ALP has had an emphatic win</a>. So far, the ABC has called 58 of the 88 seats for Labor, just 20 for the Coalition, one Green, two Independents and seven seats are undecided. Projected primary votes are currently 43.7% Labor (up 5.7% since the 2014 election), 34.9% Coalition (down 7.0%) and 10.5% Greens (down 1.0%). These projections are of what the final vote will be.</p>
<p>There was a large amount of pre-poll voting at this election, and perhaps the pre-poll swing to Labor is lower than the election-day swing. Pre-poll votes will be counted later in the night. However, Labor has clearly won a thumping victory.</p>
<p>I believe the Liberals law and order campaign was too right-wing for Victoria. The Liberals suffered large swings in their <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/list/">eastern suburb heartland</a> seats such as Hawthorn, Sandringham and Box Hill. In these seats, voters with high levels of educational attainment would have been angered by the Liberals’ campaign, which could have been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-13/liberals-under-fire-for-gang-violence-flyer/9989582">perceived as racist</a>.</p>
<p>In the final pre-election Newspoll, Labor led the Liberals by 43-42 on handling the economy, a decline from a 45-37 lead in late October. However, the economy is traditionally a Liberal strength. The Victorian economy is good, and this undoubtedly helped Labor in its rout.</p>
<p>Labor had the advantage of being a first-term government with an unpopular federal Coalition government. The ousting of Malcolm Turnbull would not have gone down well among voters with high levels of educational attainment, and contributed to the swings against the Liberals.</p>
<p>The final four Victorian state polls had Labor’s two party vote between 53% and 54%, which would represent merely a 1 to 2% swing to Labor from the 2014 election. While we will not know the final two party result for at least two weeks, Labor has clearly performed far better than expected. Polls sometimes miss in the direction that surprises commentators. </p>
<p>For example, Trump’s US victory in 2016, the UK’s Brexit referendum in 2016, UK Labour’s forcing the Conservatives into a hung Parliament in 2017, and Emmanuel Macron’s blowout victory over Marine Le Pen in 2017 were all occasions where the polls missed in a way contrary to how conventional wisdom thought.</p>
<p>I will have more details tomorrow on the Victorian election including what happened in the upper house.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With counting still underway, the projected primary votes are 44.1% Labor (up 6.0% since the 2014 election), 34.8% Coalition (down 7.2%) and 10.4% Greens (down 1.1%).Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1067722018-11-22T18:54:03Z2018-11-22T18:54:03ZFactCheck: does Victoria have Australia’s lowest rate of public school funding?<blockquote>
<p>Victoria has the lowest funding rate for public schools of any state in Australia.
<strong>– Victorian Greens state election pamphlet, circulated in the seat of Melbourne, November 2018</strong></p>
</blockquote>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246337/original/file-20181120-161627-1q4s2q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246337/original/file-20181120-161627-1q4s2q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246337/original/file-20181120-161627-1q4s2q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246337/original/file-20181120-161627-1q4s2q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246337/original/file-20181120-161627-1q4s2q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246337/original/file-20181120-161627-1q4s2q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246337/original/file-20181120-161627-1q4s2q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246337/original/file-20181120-161627-1q4s2q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Victorian Greens state election pamphlet, November 2018.</span>
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<p>The Australian Greens party <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/education/greens-pledge-extra-205bn-for-public-schools/news-story/961f84e65d97abe4c319166239ae1402?from=htc_rss&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_content=SocialFlow">this week</a> outlined its federal public education policy, saying it would spend an extra A$20.5 billion on public schools over the next 10 years, legislate to remove the cap on Commonwealth contributions to the sector, and cancel what it described as special deals for private schools, among <a href="https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2018-11/POLICY%20INITIATIVE-%20Funding%20Public%20Schools.pdf">other proposals</a>. </p>
<p>In the lead-up to Saturday’s Victorian election, the Victorian Greens shared campaign pamphlets arguing the state’s education funding needed to be brought up to the national average, stating that “Victoria has the lowest funding rate for public schools of any state in Australia”.</p>
<p>We asked the experts to check the numbers.</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>In response to The Conversation’s request for sources and comment, a spokesperson for the Victorian Greens provided the following:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>According to the most recent publicly available information from the Productivity Commission’s <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/child-care-education-and-training/school-education">Report on Government Services 2018</a>, recurrent funding per student in Victoria in 2015-16 was the lowest in the country at A$13,301 per student, which is A$1,589 lower than the national average of A$14,890.</p>
<p>The next lowest spending state is Tasmania, spending A$14,372 per student, and the highest spending state is Western Australia at A$17,306.</p>
<p>The relevant figures can be found in the <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/348/rogs-2018-partb-chapter4-attachment.xlsx?1542152525">attached table</a> at tab 4A.14.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>The statement made by the Victorian Greens is correct: Victoria does have the lowest funding rate for public schools of any state or territory in Australia. Total government funding for Victorian government schools in 2015-16 was A$15,656 per student. </p>
<p>Victoria has had the lowest per student government funding for public schools in Australia for at least a decade, due to relatively low levels of state government funding compared with other states and territories. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, Victorian students’ performance on national and international assessments is generally above average.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Response to the sources provided by the Victorian Greens</h2>
<p>The figures provided by the Greens spokesperson are not the total government funding for Victorian public schools; they are state government funding only. </p>
<h1>How is school funding allocated?</h1>
<p>All schools in Australia — government (public) and non-government (Catholic and independent) — receive public funding from both the federal government and their respective state or territory government. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1301.0%7E2012%7EMain%20Features%7EGovernment%20responsibilities%20in%20education%7E103">Commonwealth Constitution</a>, school education is the responsibility of state governments. As such, most government funding for schools comes from state governments.</p>
<p>In 2015-16 (the most recent year of finalised accounts provided by the Productivity Commission), total government funding for schools was <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/child-care-education-and-training/school-education/rogs-2018-partb-chapter4.pdf">A$55.7 billion</a>. This comprised 28% from the federal government and 72% from state and territory governments. </p>
<p>(The funding figures for government schools include a non-cash accounting element called <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=2826">user cost of capital</a> that is not included in non-government school funding figures. This complicates comparisons between the government and non-government sectors, but doesn’t substantially affect state-by-state comparisons of government schools).</p>
<p>However, the balance of funding sources in the government and non-government school sectors is very different.</p>
<p>Non-government schools receive most of their funding from the federal government, whereas government schools receive most of their funding from state and territory governments. </p>
<h2>Funding for government schools</h2>
<p>In 2015-16, <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/child-care-education-and-training/school-education/rogs-2018-partb-chapter4.pdf">86%</a> of funding for government schools came from state and territory governments, and 14% from the federal government. The latter was an increase over the past decade from the <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/child-care-education-and-training/school-education/rogs-2018-partb-chapter4.pdf">9%</a> of federal funding for government schools in 2006-07. </p>
<p>In Victorian government schools, the federal government’s share of funding increased from <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/child-care-education-and-training/school-education/rogs-2018-partb-chapter4.pdf">9% to 15%</a> in the decade to 2015-16.</p>
<p>This increase in the federal government contribution is largely the result of the various <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-passage-of-gonski-2-0-is-a-victory-for-children-over-politics-79828">iterations</a> of the <a href="https://www.cis.org.au/app/uploads/2017/05/rr26.pdf?">school funding model</a> that arose from the <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/documents/review-funding-schooling-final-report-december-2011">Gonski review</a> of school funding in 2011.</p>
<p>The current funding model under the <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/australian-education-act-2013">Australian Education Act 2013</a> has two components: a base level of funding, and additional loadings for disadvantage. All government schools are allocated 100% of the base level, while non-government schools have their base level adjusted according to the socioeconomic status of the school population.</p>
<p>The loadings — which are allocated for socioeconomic disadvantage, indigenous students, students with limited English language proficiency, students with disabilities, and small/remote schools — are not subject to any means-test adjustments. </p>
<p>The funding model sets each school a theoretical or aspirational <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/what-schooling-resource-standard-and-how-does-it-work">Schooling Resource Standard</a> (SRS) that combined federal and state/territory funding should meet. As the SRS represents a large increase in funding for some school sectors, it is being <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/how-will-schools-transition-new-funding-arrangements-be-calculated">phased in</a> over several years.</p>
<h2>What’s Victoria’s share?</h2>
<p>While both levels of government produce budget forward estimates projected over four years, it’s not possible to predict funding levels or enrolments with sufficient precision to know whether Victorian government schools will continue to have lower per student funding than other states in the future.</p>
<p>In 2015-16, total government funding for Victorian government schools was A$15,656 per student – the lowest rate in Australia. </p>
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<h2>Does lower funding mean poorer outcomes?</h2>
<p>No, lower average funding does not necessarily mean lower average performance. </p>
<p>Victorian government and non-government school students have been at least above average and often among the highest achieving states in the <a href="http://reports.acara.edu.au/NAP/NaplanResults">National Assessment Program for Literacy and Numeracy</a> (NAPLAN), frequently outperforming the higher funded schools in the Australian Capital Territory.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://research.acer.edu.au/ozpisa/21/">Program for International Student Assessment 2015</a> (PISA), Victoria’s average performance in reading, mathematical and scientific literacy was among the top three states and territories (but Victoria had relatively low proportions of high-achieving students).</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://research.acer.edu.au/timss_2015/1/">Trends in International Maths and Science Study 2015</a> (TIMSS), the average performance of Victorian students in maths and science in Years 4 and 8 was either equal first or second among Australian states and territories. <strong>– Jennifer Buckingham</strong></p>
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<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>The verdict is correct: Victorian government schools have the lowest level of government funding of any state. This is true when all government funding is counted (as the fact-checker correctly argues it should be, given the original statement) or just state government funding (the figures provided by The Greens.)</p>
<p>Comparing funding as a percentage of Schooling Resource Standard (SRS) gives a more nuanced comparison of relative funding, by taking into account the individual needs of each school. But it doesn’t change the answer: in 2016, Victorian government schools got just <a href="https://twitter.com/peter_goss/status/1065488300780089344">82% of their SRS target</a>, 6 percentage points lower than the next lowest funded state.</p>
<p>It’s even harder to make a clear link between funding levels and student outcomes. The data provided on average achievement levels in NAPLAN, PISA and TIMSS cover all school sectors, not just government schools. State-wide averages do not account for the fact that Victoria has fewer disadvantaged students than many states. And while it is formally true that Victoria is in the top three in PISA and top two in TIMSS, Victoria’s performance was not statistically higher than the national average in any of these international tests in 2015. Determining the impact on outcomes of Victoria’s low funding levels is a subject for another discussion. <strong>– Peter Goss</strong></p>
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<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit was the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106772/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Buckingham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Were the Victorian Greens correct about pubic school funding? We asked the experts to check the numbers.Jennifer Buckingham, Senior Research Fellow, The Centre for Independent Studies; Associate Investigator, ARC Centre of Excellence in Cognition and its Disorders, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1067822018-11-20T18:53:38Z2018-11-20T18:53:38ZHow much will voters pay for an early Christmas? Eight charts that explain Victoria’s transport election<p>The most magical time of the year is upon Victorians: election season. The (taxpayer-funded) gifts promised by the major parties far exceed anything Santa could bring. And the multi-billion-dollar toys on everybody’s wish list? Trains, tracks and roads.</p>
<p>There’s nothing unusual about politicians promising big-ticket items to curry favour with voters, but this election the size of these commitments is astronomical: more than A$170 billion worth of projects are on the table.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infrastructure-splurge-ignores-smarter-ways-to-keep-growing-cities-moving-105051">Infrastructure splurge ignores smarter ways to keep growing cities moving</a>
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<p>Grattan Institute has crunched the numbers, investigating the major parties’ transport infrastructure pledges worth more than A$50 million. Although cost is a cause for concern, the recent trend towards first conducting business cases is encouraging. </p>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>Population growth has been a big topic in the lead-up to Saturday’s state election. Politicians often cite it as the cause of ever-worsening congestion, despite evidence that <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/remarkably-adaptive/">Australia’s cities are actually coping quite well</a>. </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-fast-growing-cities-and-their-people-are-proving-to-be-remarkably-adaptable-103992">Our fast-growing cities and their people are proving to be remarkably adaptable</a>
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</em>
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<p>It’s often assumed that a city’s transport infrastructure needs to grow at the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/beware-congestion-busting-politicians-bent-on-new-infrastructure/">same rate as population</a>. This misconception allows politicians to promise popular mega-projects in the name of busting congestion. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246123/original/file-20181119-44252-1qsgwv1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246123/original/file-20181119-44252-1qsgwv1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246123/original/file-20181119-44252-1qsgwv1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246123/original/file-20181119-44252-1qsgwv1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246123/original/file-20181119-44252-1qsgwv1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246123/original/file-20181119-44252-1qsgwv1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246123/original/file-20181119-44252-1qsgwv1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246123/original/file-20181119-44252-1qsgwv1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Labor has the most extensive and expensive <a href="https://www.danandrews.com.au/transport/">suite of projects</a>, at a cost totalling A$95 billion. More than half of that is just one project: a A$50 billion <a href="https://www.danandrews.com.au/suburban-rail-loop">suburban rail loop</a> that rings around Melbourne’s middle suburbs and connects most train lines. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://getbackincontrol.com.au/getting-victoria-moving/">Coalition’s commitments</a> total $65 billion. The difference in the major party totals is mainly due to the smaller scale of the Coalition’s flagship rail project: a A$19 billion promise to deliver <a href="https://getbackincontrol.com.au/policy/a-state-of-cities-high-speed-rail-for-victoria/">“European-style high-speed rail”</a> to Victoria’s regional cities and towns. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246161/original/file-20181119-27767-9qlkqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246161/original/file-20181119-27767-9qlkqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246161/original/file-20181119-27767-9qlkqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246161/original/file-20181119-27767-9qlkqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246161/original/file-20181119-27767-9qlkqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246161/original/file-20181119-27767-9qlkqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246161/original/file-20181119-27767-9qlkqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246161/original/file-20181119-27767-9qlkqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Greens’ promise with the biggest price tag is the A$23 billion Melbourne Metro 2 project (click map to enlarge).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2018-08/Metro%202%20Map%20final%20%281%29_1.png">The Greens Victoria</a></span>
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<p>The Greens have so far <a href="https://victoria.greens.org.au/transforming_transport">committed to projects</a> worth at least A$72 billion. The largest is <a href="https://greens.org.au/vic/news/greens-commit-melbourne-metro-2">Melbourne Metro 2</a> at an estimated A$23 billion. </p>
<p>These promises mean that every party wants the credit, if elected, for being the government that built the largest transport infrastructure project in our nation’s history. The current title holder, <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/resources">WestConnex in Sydney</a>, totals only A$16.8 billion. </p>
<p>Critics might point out that Labor and The Greens have committed only to business cases for the suburban rail loop and Melbourne Metro 2 respectively. But since <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/cost-overruns-in-transport-infrastructure/">two-thirds of infrastructure projects announced with a price tag end up being built</a>, voters are right to treat these promises as commitments to the entire project. Unfortunately, there is no election material with the nuanced message: “We support a business case for this project, which we will have rigorously assessed by an independent body, and if the project’s costs outweigh the benefits, we’ll scrap it.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246320/original/file-20181119-119943-1ob7643.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246320/original/file-20181119-119943-1ob7643.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246320/original/file-20181119-119943-1ob7643.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246320/original/file-20181119-119943-1ob7643.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246320/original/file-20181119-119943-1ob7643.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246320/original/file-20181119-119943-1ob7643.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246320/original/file-20181119-119943-1ob7643.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246320/original/file-20181119-119943-1ob7643.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>No matter who wins on Saturday, the full cost of the promised infrastructure won’t be felt immediately. Many of these projects are slated to run over years or decades and will have an impact on several budgets. Voters have the job of deciding not just where they want their money spent, but their children’s money too. </p>
<h2>Total spend isn’t the only difference</h2>
<p>The major parties don’t tend to agree on much, especially around election time. The value of their unilateral pledges exceeds the value of projects with multi-party support.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246125/original/file-20181119-44255-u05tk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246125/original/file-20181119-44255-u05tk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246125/original/file-20181119-44255-u05tk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246125/original/file-20181119-44255-u05tk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246125/original/file-20181119-44255-u05tk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246125/original/file-20181119-44255-u05tk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246125/original/file-20181119-44255-u05tk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246125/original/file-20181119-44255-u05tk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The largest promised project to have clear support from all three parties is the airport rail link, <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/airport-rail-to-take-off-under-labor-government/">estimated at A$13 billion</a>. (The Greens support this project but will not be announcing it as a policy <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/greens-release-5-billion-plan-to-fix-inadequate-train-network-20180417-p4za3o.html">until the business case is complete</a>.) </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/melbourne-airport-is-going-to-be-as-busy-as-heathrow-so-why-the-argument-about-one-train-line-95289">Melbourne Airport is going to be as busy as Heathrow, so why the argument about one train line?</a>
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<p>Parties differ in both what they promise and where they want to build it, and the patterns are fairly predictable.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246138/original/file-20181119-44283-5732t8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246138/original/file-20181119-44283-5732t8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246138/original/file-20181119-44283-5732t8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246138/original/file-20181119-44283-5732t8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246138/original/file-20181119-44283-5732t8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246138/original/file-20181119-44283-5732t8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246138/original/file-20181119-44283-5732t8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246138/original/file-20181119-44283-5732t8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Public transport (particularly heavy rail) is the winner this election, but it’s clear that parties tend to choose projects that fit with their ideology. The Coalition has promised the most for roads. The Greens have focused almost exclusively on public transport. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246319/original/file-20181119-76154-19mxg9m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246319/original/file-20181119-76154-19mxg9m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246319/original/file-20181119-76154-19mxg9m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246319/original/file-20181119-76154-19mxg9m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246319/original/file-20181119-76154-19mxg9m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246319/original/file-20181119-76154-19mxg9m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246319/original/file-20181119-76154-19mxg9m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246319/original/file-20181119-76154-19mxg9m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The Coalition’s projects are skewed towards benefiting regional Victorians. Labor and the Greens have announced projects that focus mainly on Melbourne. </p>
<p>These patterns may be influenced by where the parties’ respective voting bases tend to cluster, but also by the demands of different parts of the state. For instance, congestion may be a less salient issue in the regions, so voters there may prefer health or education investment rather than big-ticket transport infrastructure. </p>
<h2>Is all this spending wise?</h2>
<p>There is often a mismatch between the total cost of a project and how much a party pledges in an election campaign. The discrepancy is due to three factors: </p>
<ul>
<li>only a business case is promised</li>
<li>the state government is expected to bear only part of the cost</li>
<li>the party has not made the funding arrangement clear.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246128/original/file-20181119-44258-1h7heph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246128/original/file-20181119-44258-1h7heph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246128/original/file-20181119-44258-1h7heph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246128/original/file-20181119-44258-1h7heph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246128/original/file-20181119-44258-1h7heph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246128/original/file-20181119-44258-1h7heph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246128/original/file-20181119-44258-1h7heph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246128/original/file-20181119-44258-1h7heph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>An interesting phenomenon this election is the practice of pledging a business case only. At first glance, this appears misleading – voters might be enticed by the prospect of a mega-project, yet the party has to fork out only about 1% of the total cost if it wins. </p>
<p>Ideally, parties would have independently evaluated business cases ready before committing to projects, so voters could rest assured that any promised project is a smart one. This is important because <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/cost-overruns-in-transport-infrastructure/">projects announced prematurely tend to have the largest cost overruns</a>. And without doing due diligence, there’s not enough evidence that the initiative will deliver enough benefits to justify its price; voters won’t know whether it’s a good use of taxpayer funds until it’s built and they’re stuck with it.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport-66394">Spectacular cost blowouts show need to keep governments honest on transport</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So promising a business case is still better than committing to a project without one – or, worse still, committing to a project that clearly does not stack up. </p>
<p>Both Labor and the Coalition are guilty here. Labor has committed to rail duplication between Waurn Ponds and South Geelong, despite <a href="https://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/project-assessments.aspx">Infrastructure Australia</a> – the nation’s independent advisory body – warning that “the costs of the project outweigh its benefits”. And the Coalition has promised to revive the massive East West Link, despite the <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/east-west-link-project">Victorian Auditor-General’s criticism</a> of the original project: “… the EWL business case did not provide a sound basis for the government’s decision to commit to the investment”.</p>
<p>Of the infrastructure promised this election, only the <a href="https://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/infrastructure-priority-list.aspx#anc_ipl">North East Link</a> has a business case that Infrastructure Australia has assessed and approved. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246129/original/file-20181119-44255-opyuey.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246129/original/file-20181119-44255-opyuey.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246129/original/file-20181119-44255-opyuey.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246129/original/file-20181119-44255-opyuey.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246129/original/file-20181119-44255-opyuey.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246129/original/file-20181119-44255-opyuey.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246129/original/file-20181119-44255-opyuey.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246129/original/file-20181119-44255-opyuey.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>But this is a state election and Infrastructure Australia is required to assess only projects of national significance for which more than A$100 million in federal funding is sought. Fortunately, since 2015 Victoria has had its own independent advisory body: Infrastructure Victoria. It set out recommendations for the state in its <a href="http://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/30-year-strategy">30-Year Infrastructure Strategy</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246130/original/file-20181119-44252-1mm1feu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246130/original/file-20181119-44252-1mm1feu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246130/original/file-20181119-44252-1mm1feu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246130/original/file-20181119-44252-1mm1feu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246130/original/file-20181119-44252-1mm1feu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246130/original/file-20181119-44252-1mm1feu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246130/original/file-20181119-44252-1mm1feu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246130/original/file-20181119-44252-1mm1feu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The Greens’ platform is most closely tied to these recommendations, both by number of projects and total size. While the Coalition has made the most pledges that do not align with Infrastructure Victoria’s strategy, Labor’s set of non-aligned projects is worth far more, owing mostly to the suburban rail loop. </p>
<p>The huge infrastructure promises this election may excite some voters, but for parties to pledge “visionary” projects outside of what Infrastructure Victoria has recommended smacks of hubris. By building their own glitzy mega-projects without doing due diligence, politicians risk choosing badly and failing to solve the underlying problems voters care about. Worse, the state has a finite budget, so worthwhile projects will have to be relegated to the bottom drawer to make way for the attention-grabbing goliaths.</p>
<p>Going into the polls, Victorians should have one thing on their transport infrastructure wish lists: projects with rigorous and independently assessed business cases. Anything less than that is like buying your kids shoddily manufactured, untested toys. And that may well end in tears once they’re unwrapped.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>A note on sources and assumptions: Election commitments were sourced from official party media releases and websites. Only infrastructure promises worth more than A$50 million were considered. Given Labor is in government, only Labor promises pertaining to a “re-elected Andrews government” were included. Judgment had to be exercised to avoid double counting when existing promises were subsumed into later ones. Similarly, care was taken not to double-count projects announced as part of a larger program, such as individual level-crossing removals. Where a party released a range of cost estimates, the largest value was taken.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106782/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>Whichever party wins, Victoria’s new government will have promised the biggest transport infrastructure project in Australian history. So what are the promises and are they backed by proper assessment?Marion Terrill, Transport Program Director, Grattan InstituteJames Ha, Graduate Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1058572018-11-20T18:53:27Z2018-11-20T18:53:27ZThe Greens set to be tested on a number of fronts in the Victorian election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246136/original/file-20181119-44280-ryew9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scandals, and a progressive Labor government, may hinder the Greens' progress in both houses at the Victorian election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Penny Stephens</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Critical times lie ahead for the Greens in Victoria and across the federation more generally. </p>
<p>In recent years, the Greens have managed to achieve what most minor parties and independents have failed to do: cut a swathe through a political system that is not particularly welcoming to new entrants. The Greens have defied the odds, cultivating a modest but committed base of support and managing to elect representatives to every Australian parliament except in the Northern Territory. </p>
<p>Yet in spite of their achievements over the last three decades, an underlying fragility permeates the Greens’ electoral prospects. And the Victorian state election on November 24 throws into sharp relief the precariousness that confronts the party.</p>
<p>Victoria has arguably emerged as one of the Greens’ electoral strongholds. Since 1999, the Greens’ statewide share of the lower house primary vote has increased from 1.2% to 11.5% in 2014. </p>
<p>At the 2014 state election, the party seized the electorate of Melbourne from Labor and, in what was deemed a <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/state-election/victorian-election-2014-greens-claim-second-seat-as-sam-hibbins-wins-prahran/news-story/355a910f9a5c0e0c9fba8a42b725c335">shock outcome</a>, won the Liberal-held seat of Prahran. These two wins were in addition to gaining five upper house seats. The Greens later won the inner metropolitan lower house seat of Northcote in a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-18/greens-win-northcote-by-election/9164644">2017 byelection</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-election-the-scandals-sloganeering-and-key-issues-to-watch-105495">Victoria election: the scandals, sloganeering and key issues to watch</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>That the Greens have several seats to defend is an enviable position for the party going into this election. But it also presents a challenge. Securing the re-election of all eight incumbents, let alone expanding their parliamentary representation, is a critical test of the party’s ability to shed its minor party status. </p>
<p>The Greens have opportunities to gain new lower house seats at this election. In the seat of Brunswick, the ALP incumbent, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/garrett-takes-the-long-and-winding-road-to-the-far-east-20180724-p4ztd0.html">Jane Garrett</a>, fearing a “green-slide”, chose to retreat to the comparative safety of the number one spot on Labor’s Eastern Victorian upper house ticket. Garrett’s instincts might prove correct, especially with <a href="https://twitter.com/BrendanDonohoe7">reports</a> that the Liberals have issued an open ticket in that seat. </p>
<p>Richmond is also an active prospect for the Greens because the Liberals are not fielding an <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-member-nominates-for-richmond-without-party-s-blessing-20181112-p50fkz.html">official</a> candidate.
The Liberals claim this decision is entirely principled; they do not wish to be implicated in the re-election of the ALP incumbent, Richard Wynne, because of his involvement in the so-called <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-19/ombudsman-investigation-into-red-shirts-rort-costs-1.3m/10281694">“red shirts scandal”</a>. But it is impossible to ignore the fact that <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/vic2018/Richmond.htm">Richmond</a> is Labor’s third-most-marginal electorate and the seat of a presiding minister.</p>
<p>But what the Liberals give, they also have the power to take away. Their decision to field candidates in Northcote and Melbourne, where Labor is competitive, puts both seats in contention. </p>
<p>This is especially true of Northcote, which <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-18/greens-win-northcote-by-election/9164644">the Greens won</a> in a byelection with relatively low turnout (79% compared to 91.67% at the 2014 election) and no Liberal candidate to channel second preferences to the Labor candidate. This time, the Liberals are issuing an <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/labor-faked-howtovote-cards/news-story/4916338188c31875da209d6f582d012e">open ticket</a>. Under these conditions, Liberals voters are likely to be more inclined to preference the Labor candidate ahead of the Greens.</p>
<p>Nor will Prahran be an easy seat for the Greens to retain. It is among the 16 <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-conceive-election-push-as-long-as-a-pregnancy-20180220-p4z10m.html">“target seats”</a> that have been the focus of Liberal campaign efforts for the past nine months. The Greens incumbent, Sam Hibbins, holds the seat by the barest of margins (0.37%). Hibbins was elected from third position with the assistance of preferences from minor parties and the ALP in 2014. </p>
<p>The upper house also presents uncertainty for the Greens. The party was keen to negotiate <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/big-blow-for-labor-after-libs-avoid-contest-in-inner-city-electorates-20181107-p50ej2.html">a preference deal</a> with Labor because it secured all but one upper house vacancies with a full quota in 2014. However, Labor ignored its overtures, focusing its energies on ill-fated preference negotiations with the Liberals. In this election, the <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/CandidatesAndParties/GroupVotingTickets.html">group ticket votes</a> lodged by Labor place the Greens behind right-tending parties in several regions.</p>
<p>When combined with the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-09/summary-of-candidates-and-parties-contesting-the-2018-victorian/10483188">size of the field</a> and the likely strengthening of Labor’s primary vote, <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/">several</a> <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/micro-parties-set-to-win-big-in-victorian-election-after-vote-swap-20181112-p50flk.html">analysts</a> warn that the Greens might be in peril in some regions. </p>
<p>Aggravating matters further is that the Greens have been caught off guard having to defend the party against Labor’s claims that it has “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/18/daniel-andrews-says-greens-have-a-toxic-culture-problem-around-women">a toxic cultural problem</a>” in relation to women. Nor are the Greens able to invoke asylum-seeker policy to turn concerned inner metropolitan voters away from Labor given that it is a federal matter. </p>
<p>Labor is also campaigning on several issues that have potential to crowd out the Greens’ policy messaging, such as a fairly <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/power-politics-energy-policy-the-great-divide-in-victorian-election-20181108-p50ev5.html">progressive energy policy</a> and a pledge to expand the rail network and to build cycle lanes. </p>
<p>None of this is to say that Labor will easily gazump the Greens. The government’s policy pledges are likely to be perceived as either too contingent or modest to satisfy the more committed green/progressive supporter. But Labor’s election pledges might prove enough to slow down the Greens’ advance in key inner metro seats, while the micro-parties and their <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/micro-parties-set-to-win-big-in-victorian-election-after-vote-swap-20181112-p50flk.html">intricate preference deals</a> might well frustrate Green hopes in several upper house regions.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article has been corrected. It originally read: Labor has indicated it will establish a taskforce to consider a proposal for the Great Forest National Park, an initiative it had rejected prior to the 2014 state election. This is incorrect, and has been amended accordingly.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105857/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Victorian state election presents opportunities and risks for the Greens – including whether they can transition from being a protest party to a major party.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1066982018-11-20T07:36:39Z2018-11-20T07:36:39ZVictoria votes: your guide to the 2018 election health promises<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245918/original/file-20181116-194516-pcmuxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are major differences – plus a few similarities – between the health promises from Labor, the Coalition and the Greens.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">rawpixel/unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With health care spending accounting for <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/document/2018%20Victorian%20Pre-Election%20Budget%20Update.pdf">30% of the Victorian budget</a>, or A$20 billion, health is a major policy area for the Victorian election on Saturday. </p>
<p>While the Commonwealth pays for general practice, private specialists, pharmaceutical benefits and aged care, the states are responsible for running hospitals, community health services and ambulance services. They also want to keep Victorians healthy and out of hospital. </p>
<p>This election campaign, Labor has committed $4.3 billion to health; the Coalition has promised $1.3 billion, and the Greens have pledged $1.35 billion. Much of the difference comes down to infrastructure spending. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/waiting-for-better-care-why-australias-hospitals-and-health-care-are-failing-104862">Waiting for better care: why Australia’s hospitals and health care are failing</a>
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<h2>Labor</h2>
<p>Labor’s health policy emphasises its commitment to a public health system. A re-elected Labor government would build a <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/building-a-better-hospital-for-melbournes-inner-west/">new hospital in the western Melbourne suburb of Footscray</a> ($1.5 billion) and spend $1.2 billion on <a href="http://vha.org.au/docs/vea_edition-4_20181119.pdf">capital improvements</a> to other hospitals in outer suburban Melbourne and regional areas.</p>
<p>Labor’s hospital package also includes $675 million for <a href="https://www.danandrews.com.au/policies/ten-new-community-hospitals-to-give-patients-the-best-care">ten new or upgraded community hospitals</a>. These health services would provide day surgeries, diagnostic imaging and specialist outpatients, in addition to admitted and urgent care. </p>
<p>The remainder of nearly A$1 billion goes to a range of other promises, including:</p>
<ul>
<li>the creation or enhancement of <a href="https://www.danandrews.com.au/policies/backing-our-paramedics-to-keep-saving-lives">23 ambulance stations</a> ($109 million)</li>
<li><a href="https://www.danandrews.com.au/policies/finishing-what-we-started-stronger-nurse-to-patient-ratios">more nurses and midwives</a>, and better nurse-to-patient ratios ($410 million) </li>
<li>more <a href="https://www.danandrews.com.au/policies/more-specialist-care-closer-to-home-for-regional-victorians">public specialist outpatient appointments</a> in regional areas ($136 millon)</li>
<li>a royal commission into mental health care ($13.2 million)</li>
<li><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-15/tampons-pads-female-sanitary-products-in-school-toilets-labor/10499960">free pads and tampons</a> in government school bathrooms ($5 million a year)</li>
<li>free <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-pledges-free-dental-care-for-state-school-kids-20181118-p50gr9.html">dental care for state school children</a> ($395.8m)</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-19/victorian-labor-promises-baby-bundles-first-aid-for-new-parents/10509662">baby bundles</a>” of goods for new parents ($22 million over four years).</li>
</ul>
<p>The boost in hospital funding is likely to enhance care in the hospital catchment areas and ease the pressure on surrounding hospitals. Improved nurse-to-patient ratios will likely <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-improve-care-in-nursing-homes-mandate-minimum-staffing-levels-104393">improve the safety and quality of care</a> in the state’s emergency departments and hospital wards.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-we-wait-so-long-in-hospital-emergency-departments-and-for-elective-surgery-54384">Why do we wait so long in hospital emergency departments and for elective surgery?</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Is it necessary to commit $3.3 billion to hospitals, presumably on top of current levels of funding? </p>
<p>Much of this goes to capital improvements. Without such investments now, the existing hospital capacity in and around Melbourne will not be able to keep up. But it’s unclear where the money will come from to run these extra hospitals and hospital expansions. It’s hoped that operating costs will not then be taken from existing hospitals. </p>
<h2>Coalition</h2>
<p>The Coalition’s funding commitments are spread across the key sectors of health including:</p>
<ul>
<li>improvements to <a href="http://vha.org.au/docs/vea_edition-4_20181119.pdf">six hospitals</a> (50%, $477 million)</li>
<li>one <a href="https://www.matthewguy.com.au/media-release/guy-armstrong-creek-emergency-services-precinct/">ambulance station</a> ($7.1 million)</li>
<li><a href="https://www.matthewguy.com.au/media-release/guy-wooldridge-kealy-victorian-patient-transport-assistance-scheme/">funds to improve the Patient Transport Assistance Scheme</a>, which assists with the travel and accommodation costs of rural and regional patients ($35 million) </li>
<li><a href="http://vic.nationals.org.au/liberal_nationals_will_ensure_a_brighter_future_for_young_rural_victorians">integrated community health services</a> for disadvantaged and rural or regional children ($80 million)</li>
<li>expanded <a href="https://vic.liberal.org.au/News/2018-08-17/massive-boost-to-home-and-community-care">hospital in the home</a> care ($175 million)</li>
<li><a href="https://vic.liberal.org.au/News/2017-08-21/record-funding-boost-for-palliative-care">community palliative care</a> ($140 million)</li>
<li>subsidy to <a href="https://www.matthewguy.com.au/media-release/guy-cutting-the-cost-of-parking-at-hospitals/">reduce hospital parking</a> costs ($40 million)</li>
<li>innovation, including <a href="https://vic.liberal.org.au/News/2018-09-02/four-surgical-robots-for-our-public-hospitals">four new robots</a> for Austin and Mercy, Monash, Western and Bendigo Health</li>
<li>an <a href="https://www.matthewguy.com.au/media-release/wooldridge-pioneering-cure-for-kids-with-allergies/">oral immunotherapy allergy trial</a> at the University of Melbourne ($31 million)</li>
<li>A revised <a href="https://www.matthewguy.com.au/media-release/guy-liberal-nationals-to-invest-60m-in-life-be-in-it/">Life. Be in It</a> health promotion campaign ($36 million). </li>
</ul>
<p>There is evidence for much of the Coalition’s commitments. In particular, palliative care has been shown in trials to not only improve quality of life, but also, in some cancers, <a href="https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/8/1/e015904">survival</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/assisted-dying-is-one-thing-but-governments-must-ensure-palliative-care-is-available-to-all-who-need-it-86131">Assisted dying is one thing, but governments must ensure palliative care is available to all who need it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Improving access to community care for disadvantaged groups and in rural and regional areas has the potential to improve the management of chronic disease, such as asthma and diabetes, leading to better health in the long term. </p>
<h2>Greens</h2>
<p>The Greens’ platform is anchored in a social determinants of health and a population health approach that conceives of health more explicitly as an outcome of broader social and economic conditions. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-improve-the-nations-health-start-by-reducing-inequalities-and-improving-living-conditions-64434">Want to improve the nation's health? Start by reducing inequalities and improving living conditions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Victorian Greens party’s main priorities are:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/agv/pages/18338/attachments/original/1540187403/AGV_Free_ambulance.pdf?1540187403">free ambulance services</a> (50%, $668 million)</li>
<li>enhanced <a href="https://greens.org.au/vic/news/media-release/greens-will-restore-funding-mental-health">mental health services</a> ($270 million)</li>
<li>increased community health services and infrastructure ($200 million)</li>
<li>increased access to <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/agv/pages/18664/attachments/original/1542162919/AGV_Community_health_and_dental.pdf?1542162919">public dental care</a> ($160 million)</li>
<li><a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/agv/pages/18664/attachments/original/1542162866/AGV_Prevention_always_better_than_cure.pdf?1542162866">prevention</a> ($15 million per year)</li>
<li>a commissioner for Aboriginal health.</li>
</ul>
<p>The Greens’ funding for free ambulance services would ensure nobody misses out on timely care for traumatic injuries and heart attacks because they don’t have ambulance cover. A similar program operates in <a href="https://www.racq.com.au/about/knowledge-bank/ambulance-cover">Queensland</a>. </p>
<p>The Greens have a well-developed policy, conceiving of health and well-being broadly. The package includes substantial commitments to mental health, community health care and dental health. </p>
<p>But there is no extra funding for hospitals beyond the current budget.</p>
<h2>Comparing the three parties</h2>
<p>The biggest difference in the health funding commitments between the three parties is Labor’s focus on hospital infrastructure funding (which accounts for 78% of its health promises). It’s not clear whether the Coalition and the Greens oppose the bulk of Labor’s hospital commitments or are simply silent. </p>
<p>Although this level of funding to hospitals may seem like an inordinate amount, it’s important to consider the role of modern hospitals. They have become the providers of not only admitted care, but emergency care (including GP-type visits), specialist care in outpatient clinics, chronic disease management and palliative care. </p>
<p>When this hospital infrastructure funding is taken out of consideration, the three parties are hard to distinguish. Labor is promising $960 million, Coalition is pledging $816 million and the Greens have committed $1.3 billion to a range of community, mental health, ambulance, chronic disease and prevention services.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-were-to-have-another-inquiry-into-mental-health-it-should-look-at-why-the-others-have-been-ignored-105728">If we're to have another inquiry into mental health, it should look at why the others have been ignored</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The most evident gaps are Labor’s lack of funding for prevention and innovation, and the Greens’ lack of extra hospital capital funding. </p>
<p>A change to the Coalition would likely mean less hospital funding, particularly for a new Footscray hospital, but significant funding for community palliative care services and hospital in the home.</p>
<p><em>A more comprehensive list of the three parties’ election health promises is available on the Victorian Healthcare Association’s <a href="http://vha.org.au/docs/vea_edition-4_20181119.pdf">Election Alert</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vijaya Sundararajan has received funding from the NHMRC, BUPA Research Foundation, and the St Vincent's Research Endowment Foundation. During the 2016 Australian Election she volunteered to door-knock (x1) and make telephone calls (x2) for her local member Jenny Macklin. She worked at the Victorian Department of Human Services from 2000 to mid-2009 under a Labor government and the Victorian Department of Health mid-2009 to 2010 under Labor and 2011 to 2012 under a Liberal government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Shiell receives funding from the NHMRC and Victorian Department of Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hassan Vally and Steven Lewis do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Need a quick overview of what the major parties are promising in health this election? We’ve got you covered.Vijaya Sundararajan, Professor and Head of Department, Public Health, La Trobe UniversityAlan Shiell, Professor of Health Economics, La Trobe UniversityHassan Vally, Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology, La Trobe UniversitySteven Lewis, Adjunct Professor at Simon Fraser University and Clinical Professor, University of SaskatchewanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1054952018-11-18T19:03:53Z2018-11-18T19:03:53ZVictoria election: the scandals, sloganeering and key issues to watch<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245722/original/file-20181115-194488-1k5hzzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C1988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scandals have dominated the recent headlines, but healthcare, education and public transport have been at the core of the policy debates.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victorians will decide who governs the state for the next four years on Saturday. Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader Matthew Guy, along with all other candidates, can see the finish line as the parties make last-minute appeals for support.</p>
<p>The election campaign has been far from scintillating. The <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-step-up-pressure-for-andrews-debate-20181106-p50edh.html">leaders’ debate</a>, which will be held in the ultra-marginal seat of Frankston on Wednesday, may be a highlight in a relatively well-managed campaign by both major parties. </p>
<p>This election is unique in that up to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/up-to-50-per-cent-of-victorian-voters-to-go-early-this-november-20180927-p506fb.html">50% of voters</a> are expected to have voted before election day. This means the parties are appealing to a smaller number of voters in the final week of the campaign than in previous elections.</p>
<h2>Early exits dogging the Liberals, Greens</h2>
<p>While the major parties had avoided embarrassing gaffes in the early days of the campaign, there have been a few missteps of late.</p>
<p>One Liberal candidate quit over <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victorian-election-liberal-candidate-meralyn-klein-quits-race-over-antimuslim-video/news-story/99348562cf0046f54287cbe9df5ea587">a controversial online video</a> that featured the hashtag #MuslimBan, while another <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/yourlanguage/hindi/en/article/2018/11/13/australian-indian-candidate-neelam-rai-withdraws-victoria-election-report">withdrew</a> following concerns about her fundraising for an unregistered charity.</p>
<p>The Greens have also been mired in controversy. One candidate withdrew over <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-01/greens-candidate-quits-over-shop-lifting-social-media-posts/10454062">social media posts</a> that boasted about shoplifting, while another candidate has attracted criticism for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-13/victorian-greens-stand-by-footscray-and-sandringham-candidates/10494022">rapping about date rape</a>.</p>
<h2>Public safety and other key issues</h2>
<p>When it comes to the issues, government services – especially healthcare, education and public transport – as well as energy and public safety have been at the core of the policy debates.</p>
<p>Both parties have ostensibly built their campaigns around market research and the messages they believe will influence how citizens vote.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-australias-nra-inspired-gun-lobby-is-trying-to-chip-away-at-gun-control-laws-state-by-state-105667">How Australia's NRA-inspired gun lobby is trying to chip away at gun control laws, state by state</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Labor’s slogan, “<a href="https://www.viclabor.com.au/">Delivering for all Victorians</a>”, seeks to maintain the party’s perceived strengths in delivering services. In contrast, the Liberals’ slogan, “<a href="http://liberalparty.ripebureau.com/">Get Back in Control</a>” is aimed at positioning the party as a more measured and effective manager of public finances and services.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245910/original/file-20181116-194519-9oci4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245910/original/file-20181116-194519-9oci4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245910/original/file-20181116-194519-9oci4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245910/original/file-20181116-194519-9oci4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245910/original/file-20181116-194519-9oci4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245910/original/file-20181116-194519-9oci4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245910/original/file-20181116-194519-9oci4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Matthew Guy on the campaign trail with MP Roma Britnell. The Liberals have pledged $1 billion to repair country and regional roads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of the big issues that has dominated Victorian politics in recent years has been public safety. News coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-media-are-to-blame-for-racialising-melbournes-african-gang-problem-100761">so-called “African gang problem”</a>, and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/crime/the-big-problem-with-scott-morrisons-attack-on-the-muslim-community-after-bourke-st-terror/news-story/1cad6ca2945efcf9c8674a63edfdf4d0">the tragic terror attack</a> last week in the CBD, have provided the Liberals with what they see as an opportunity to position the party as a stronger manager of law and order in the state. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-does-victoria-have-australias-highest-rate-of-crime-105846">FactCheck: does Victoria have Australia's highest rate of crime?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Guy has <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/matthew-guy-bolsters-law-and-order-pitch-in-speech-to-liberal-troops-20180428-p4zc7t.html">campaigned strongly</a> on this issue with the view that it will sway voters in marginal seats concerned about safety.</p>
<p>Public transport has also been a prominent issue in the campaign, with the government touting its removal of railway crossings, as well as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-28/melbourne-suburban-train-loop-promised-by-labor/10172184">a proposed new rail system</a>. The Coalition has also promised to extend rail lines in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/matthew-guy-pledges-nearly-500m-to-extend-cranbourne-train-line-20180711-p4zqtr.html">growing suburbs</a> on Melbourne’s fringe, while also <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/no-sky-rail-matthew-guy-promises-to-remove-level-crossings-in-pakenham-20181102-p50dlk.html">removing railway crossings</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245908/original/file-20181116-194500-dpzvty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245908/original/file-20181116-194500-dpzvty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245908/original/file-20181116-194500-dpzvty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245908/original/file-20181116-194500-dpzvty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245908/original/file-20181116-194500-dpzvty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245908/original/file-20181116-194500-dpzvty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245908/original/file-20181116-194500-dpzvty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Daniel Andrews has made public transport a central part of Labor’s campaign, including a proposed $50 billion suburban rail loop.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Valeriu Campan/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In terms of education, Labor has promised to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-promises-100-new-schools-in-850m-election-pledge-20181107-p50ei6.html">build new schools</a> and upgrade existing ones. The Liberals have also indicated they would seek to “<a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/matthew-guy-vows-to-teach-victorian-students-australian-values-20180123-p4yyry.html">de-clutter</a>” the state’s curriculum and provide a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/education/voters-offered-backtobasics-schools-policy-by-victorian-opposition/news-story/02b15efd055ab288709b38257349b652">“back-to-basics” schools policy</a>.</p>
<h2>‘Red shirts’ and ‘lobster with a mobster’</h2>
<p>Aside from the policy debates, the parties will also be judged on their performances since the last election in 2014.</p>
<p>Both major parties have avoided the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-economics-of-australias-too-common-leadership-spills-102049">instability</a> that has been the hallmark of their federal counterparts over the last decade. Both Andrews and Guy have remained relatively safe in their roles, though they did suffer some setbacks.</p>
<p>Andrews had to go into damage control following the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-24/can-labor-weather-the-storm-of-the-campaign-rort-scandal/9580324">dubious use of taxpayer funds</a> by some Labor MPs, while also being side-tracked by the so-called <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/05/red-shirts-scandal-could-rip-through-victorian-labors-election-plans">“red shirts” affair</a>, in which taxpayer funds were used to pay campaign staff (who wore red shirts).</p>
<p>The government also lost ministers over <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/minister-stood-down-over-allegations-of-misconduct-made-by-chief-of-staff-20150523-gh82oh.html">allegations of misconduct made by staff</a> and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/minister-steve-herbert-resigns-over-dog-scandal-20161109-gsl3rn.html">use of a ministerial car to ferry pet dogs</a>. Cracks also appeared in the government when Emergency Services Minister Jane Garrett resigned from Cabinet over the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-10/emergency-services-minister-jane-garrett-resigns-from-cabinet/7499334">pay and conditions for firefighters</a>.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party has not been without its share of drama. Guy was embroiled in the so-called <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/politics/matthew-guys-lobster-with-a-mobster-scandal-attracts-investigation/news-story/cd5c179669c1491a7d124a8ff29c9392">“lobster with a mobster”</a> affair – a dinner at a lobster restaurant with an alleged mafia boss – and his past dealings as planning minister also attracted scrutiny after being <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/matthew-guy-paid-out-millions-to-keep-his-job-documents-20180903-p501ir.html">released by the government</a>. This did Labor no favours, however, as the premier <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-06/vic-govt-document-dump-matthew-guy-privacy-breach/10207092">was forced to apologise</a> to those whose private details were made public as part of the document release.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-governments-are-vital-for-australian-democracy-heres-why-101109">State governments are vital for Australian democracy: here's why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While Labor has been enjoying the benefits of incumbency, the Liberal Party has, at times, appeared to be distracted by an identity crisis. Like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-liberal-party-hold-its-broad-church-of-liberals-and-conservatives-together-93575">federal party</a>, the Victorian Liberals have grappled with the question of who they are seeking to represent. Whether it is a pragmatic party, or a more ideologically driven socially conservative party, appears to be at the <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/how-victorias-liberals-went-feral/">root of such debates</a>.</p>
<p>Adding further to the frustrations to the Liberal leadership has been the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/14/victorian-liberals-win-partial-victory-in-battle-for-70m-cormack-fund">well-publicised</a> dispute with the Cormack Foundation over control of campaign funds, as well as the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-19/damien-mantach-jailed-for-five-years-stealing-from-liberal-party/7640012">imprisonment</a> of its former state director for stealing A$1.5 million from the party.</p>
<p>Despite all the political dramas, the election itself could be fairly straightforward. With <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/newspoll-federal-leadership-turmoil-hits-victorian-liberals-campaign/news-story/3ae2a773572b8e0bd7372b8e30344295">opinion polls</a> showing the government leading on the all-important two-party preferred measure, it looks highly likely Labor will be returned in Victoria.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With just days to go before the election, Labor is making a last-minute appeal to voters to stay in power, while the Liberals are pressing for change.Zareh Ghazarian, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1056672018-11-15T18:59:44Z2018-11-15T18:59:44ZHow Australia’s NRA-inspired gun lobby is trying to chip away at gun control laws, state by state<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245507/original/file-20181114-194500-wwi1je.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The SIFA gun lobby is running ads in Victoria targeting Labor in the hopes it can get more pro-gun independent MPs elected.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the more noticeable ad campaigns in the upcoming Victoria state election comes from a seemingly unlikely source. The <a href="https://sifa.net.au">Shooting Industry Foundation of Australia</a> (SIFA) seeks to unwind Australia’s gun regulations, and knows that state governments are as good a place as any to start.</p>
<p>SIFA is a key part of Australia’s gun lobby, and uses the same tactics as its American equivalent, the National Rifle Association (NRA). Like the NRA, SIFA seeks to co-opt democratic norms to force change, even when it is directly at odds with overwhelming public opinion.</p>
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<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7FOqoR2aj1A?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">SIFA’s “Not Happy Dan” television ad.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>The NRA playbook</h2>
<p>A common misconception about the NRA is that it’s a “grass-roots” organisation. This implies that policy comes from its many paid members, and then works its way up to the leaders, who dutifully implement the will of their constituents.</p>
<p>Not so: the NRA’s policies are set by America’s gun industry, which has a vested (financial) interest in lax gun laws. The gun industry <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/01/nra-board-members-selleck-nugent/">controls the NRA’s board and appoints its directors</a> (they are <em>not</em> democratically elected by NRA members), and also dictates policy. This is why the NRA resists almost any calls for stricter gun control, even though <a href="http://time.com/5197807/stricter-gun-laws-nra/">NRA members themselves favour some restrictions</a> (such as tougher background checks), not to mention <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1645/guns.aspx">the wider American electorate</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, along with its prevalence of guns, America suffers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2017/oct/02/america-mass-shootings-gun-violence">a mass shooting nine out of every 10 days on average</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/articulate-us-teenagers-could-finally-force-action-on-gun-control-92272">a shocking number of school massacres</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/oversimplifying-gun-control-issues-can-pose-a-real-threat-to-community-safety-85244">Oversimplifying gun control issues can pose a real threat to community safety</a>
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</p>
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<p>So, how can the NRA get its way, in spite of so many problems, and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/nra-poll-popularity-favorability-more-americans-dislike-2018-3?r=US&IR=T">being so widely disliked</a>? </p>
<p>It succeeds because it uses America’s representative political system to get its way. The NRA knows that policy is made through leverage: financially supported groups of elected officials can promote its policies, even when the wider public favours tighter gun control laws and <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/82421/gun-control-democrats-obama-congress">Democrats make efforts to try to pass them</a>. </p>
<p>It also uses <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrnIVVWtAag">sophisticated advertisements</a>, and <a href="https://www.nraila.org/get-the-facts/gun-violence-research/">“education” campaigns</a> to muddy the waters and spread misinformation on the efficacy of gun control. (Needless to say, the NRA suggests gun control doesn’t work, despite <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/2/16399418/us-gun-violence-statistics-maps-charts">significant evidence that it does</a>.)</p>
<h2>SIFA and the Australian gun lobby</h2>
<p>There are some similarities between the NRA and SIFA – and some key differences. </p>
<p>Like the NRA, SIFA is also backed by the gun industry, such as the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbeslifestyle/2014/09/10/inside-the-beretta-empire-a-fashion-line-hunting-lodges-and-an-italian-villa/#2087e1d73014">Beretta family</a> (who are adamant that guns are <a href="http://www.nrawomen.tv/armed-and-fabulous/video/armed-and-fabulous-2015-a-lasting-legacy-the-monique-beretta-story/list/armed-and-fabulous-full-features">inextricably linked to freedom</a>) and NIOA (a major gun importer in Australia that was featured in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/big-guns/10406306">a recent 4 Corners special</a> on the gun industry).</p>
<p>As with the NRA, SIFA is also willing to use a range of tools to get its way. And, as with America, the power to make gun control laws in Australia rests with the states, as well as the federal government.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1061072463625256960"}"></div></p>
<p>Yet, SIFA knows there is <a href="https://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Essential-Report_270318.pdf">little support in Australia for weak gun control laws</a> and adopting the NRA’s more aggressive stances would backfire. Australians would react very negatively to an overt push to relax gun laws.</p>
<p>So, the group instead claims it wants to “<a href="https://sifa.net.au/national-firearms-agreement-the-unresolved-issues/">simplify, not weaken</a>” gun laws (though its principle sources of funding do indeed want to “weaken” rather than merely “simplify” these statutes). </p>
<p>And, when SIFA launched advertisements ahead of the Victoria election, they were not designed to change people’s minds on gun control. Instead, the ad blitz has relied on the catchy, <a href="https://chapelstreet.com.au/news/chapel-streets-nothappydan-campaign/attachment/not-happy-dan-1/">if derivative</a>, slogan “Not Happy Dan”, made famous by the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2akt3P8ltLM">“Not Happy Jan”</a> Yellow Pages ads. And its focus is not on gun control, but rather the performance and competency of the Labor Government.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-nra-can-teach-us-about-the-art-of-public-persuasion-85610">What the NRA can teach us about the art of public persuasion</a>
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<p>The campaign is designed to weaken Labor, <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-gun-laws-pass-in-a-win-for-police-and-public-safety/">which favours tighter gun control</a>, perhaps with the hope that any newly elected <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-06/ricky-muir-to-stand-for-victorian-parliament/9398152">independents in the state will be pro-gun</a>. SIFA knows that if the balance of power rests with a handful of independents after the election, especially those from parties like the <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/about/people-in-parliament/members-search/list-shooters-fishers-and-farmers-members">Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party</a>, then there is a possibility that <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-massacres-and-an-accelerating-decline-in-overall-gun-deaths-the-impact-of-australias-major-1996-gun-law-reforms-61212">Australia’s highly effective gun control laws</a> can be slowly unwound. </p>
<p>Given <a href="https://sifa.net.au/queensland-state-election-2017-project-report/">SIFA had the same strategy last year in the Queensland election</a>, it seems clear it has a strategy to try to influence Australian politics wherever it can. And with its <a href="https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/cpyne/media-releases/nioa-perfect-fit-benalla-munitions-factory">financial backers continuing to win government contracts in Australia</a>, it is also likely SIFA will have no shortage of funding in the future. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XlCerFRelVY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The “Flick ‘Em” campaign in last year’s Queensland election, funded by SIFA.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
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<h2>Undoing hard-won change</h2>
<p>On the eve of the Victoria election, Melbourne was shocked by an attack by a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/bourke-street-attacker-hassan-khalif-shire-ali-delusional-agitated-before-deadly-rampage-20181110-p50fa4.html">madman with a knife</a> on Bourke Street in the CDB. But the city also remembers what happened when a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-09/hoddle-street-massacre-30-years-on/8786766">madman went on a rampage with a gun 30 years ago</a>, not far away on Hoddle Street. Seven people were killed and 19 wounded. </p>
<p>This memory, <a href="http://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/port-arthur-massacre">along with many others</a>, sits in stark contrast to the conspicuous lack of gun deaths <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-arguments-that-carried-australias-1996-gun-law-reforms-58431">following the introduction of tighter gun laws</a> in Australia in 1996. This fundamentally underpins much of the country’s resistance to weaker gun laws, and the gun lobby knows it. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-arguments-that-carried-australias-1996-gun-law-reforms-58431">The arguments that carried Australia’s 1996 gun law reforms</a>
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<p>America’s guns laws were weakened through a gradual process. This involved the patient undermining of the popular will through the passage of favourable laws in state legislatures – the blocking of others – and a continuing narrative that linked guns with freedom and gun control with an evil or “nanny” state. </p>
<p>The Australian gun lobby has learnt from this American example, and its methods emulate it. Expect to see more from SIFA in the lead-up to other elections in the future – Australia’s very own NRA.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Rennie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>SIFA claims it wants to ‘simplify, not weaken’ gun control laws in Australia. But it’s following the same playbook as the NRA in America – and hoping for similar results.George Rennie, Lecturer in Politics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1070162018-11-15T07:01:20Z2018-11-15T07:01:20ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Derryn Hinch on a national ICAC and the Victorian election<p>The Senate this week passed a motion calling for the government to establish a federal anti-corruption commission. The government is more likely to beef up existing institutions but Justice Party senator Derryn Hinch, who has been a strong advocate for a national ICAC, says “that would be wrong.” “We have to have an independent national body to look into us [politicians] and to public servants and to various agencies,” he told The Conversation. </p>
<p>Hinch - who is long odds in his battle to hold his seat at the election - is running candidates in the Victorian state election. He hopes to get “one or two” of his team elected to the upper house.</p>
<p>In Victoria he predicts a Labor win, although he doesn’t “think they deserve to.” Federally, he says “I would be one of the few people in this building who still thinks the Libs are in with a chance”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107016/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government is more likely to beef up existing institutions but Derryn Hinch, who has been a strong advocate for a national ICAC, says "that would be wrong."Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1013082018-11-05T10:05:38Z2018-11-05T10:05:38ZThree charts on: representation of Australian, New Zealand and Sudan born people in Victorian crime statistics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243842/original/file-20181105-83657-170xld5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Crime and ethnicity: highly divisive issues in the state.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sharonhahndarlin/43266652715/in/photolist-S9K9e1-Fg6VZo-SAssi7-Gzz4Jj-rRbd9V-218eJGq-vikKJh-D7nMA1-PeeLCs-Pz7RwS-PMP8nv-NxeciW-PJBM8d-PMR9s2-NysSJX-PJBWeu-Nxgyg3-Pz6X95-Nxe9pE-E5FkK3-dAqHxg-8HHSYN-7VAsJB-7VAsvr-7VAsak-8biu4-ai2raU-rbfkVF-7VDGtb-7VDGks-CndRvS-HgQm5V-68qZMD-5dyJ3w-7VDFVu-22aNhy5-5HZHN8-Jk13t2-22dtoDk-2imj1-ZS8XSg-psiEsr-rbPYc8-28VjUsX-22aNdj3-218ff7h-218eZdQ-rT6voJ-PJCDdd-7VAsBD">Sharon Hahn Darlin/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of Victoria’s most senior judges has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-05/media-coverage-of-african-offenders-skewed-warns-chief-judge/10452172">warned</a> the current media reporting and political rhetoric around crime committed by people from South Sudanese backgrounds in Melbourne is “dangerous” and “skewed”.</p>
<p>Interviewed by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/">ABC Four Corners</a> as part of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/crime-and-panic/10456978">an investigation</a> into the issue, County Court Chief Judge Peter Kidd said there had been an inaccurate portrayal of how much crime is committed by people from the community. </p>
<p>Kidd told reporter Sophie McNeill:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If you are an African offender, and certainly if you’re an African youth of South Sudanese background from the western suburbs of Melbourne, rest assured your case will be reported upon.</p>
<p>The media choose to report upon those cases. That creates an impression that we, that our work, a very significant proportion of our work is taken up with African youths from the western suburbs of Melbourne. That’s a false impression.</p>
<p>I can say that in general terms, most of our work, the vast, vast majority of our work does not involve Africans.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Earlier this year, then-Racial Discrimination Commissioner Tim Soutphommasane <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/race-discrimination-commissioner-departing/10077188">made the point</a> that while Sudanese Australians were over-represented in criminal offending in Victoria, they were “not the only group”. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We have Australian born and New Zealand born offenders over-represented in crime statistics in Victoria, too.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Here are some statistics.</p>
<h2>What does it mean to be ‘over-represented’ in crime statistics?</h2>
<p>The term “over-represented” is used when the level of offending by a particular group is greater than the group’s representation in the general population. </p>
<p>In this case, to determine whether a group is over-represented, we can cross reference general population numbers and country of birth data from the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/Population">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> (ABS) and unique alleged offender data provided by the <a href="https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/">Victorian Crime Statistics Agency</a> (CSA).</p>
<p>A “unique alleged offender” is one person who is alleged to have committed a crime. One unique alleged offender may be involved in more than one alleged <em>incident</em> during the reference period. But in the unique alleged offender data, no matter how many incidents a person may have been involved in, they are counted once. </p>
<h2>Which groups are over-represented, and to what degree?</h2>
<p>At the time of the last Census (2016), Victoria’s population was <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/MediaRealesesByCatalogue/C508DD213FD43EA7CA258148000C6BBE?OpenDocument">5.9 million</a>. CSA unique alleged offenders data from April 2015 to March 2018 show that on average over those three years: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>People born in Australia accounted for 64.90% of the Victorian population, and 72.57% of unique alleged offenders (a unique offender rate to population share of 1.1)</p></li>
<li><p>People born in New Zealand accounted for 1.57% of the Victorian population, and 2.23% of unique alleged offenders (a unique offender rate to population share of 1.4), and</p></li>
<li><p>People born in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14094995">Sudan</a> or <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14069082">South Sudan</a> accounted for 0.14% of the Victorian population, and 1% of unique alleged offenders (a unique offender rate to population share of 7).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>While people born in Australia and New Zealand were over-represented in the alleged offender population of Victoria, people born in Sudan were over-represented to higher levels.</p>
<p>The two charts below show the numbers of unique alleged offenders by country of birth for the period April 2017 to March 2018, and the principal offences committed. </p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="jpD9d" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jpD9d/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<hr>
<p>The CSA notes that crime “seems to be committed at different rates at different stages of life”, and that therefore, “if a particular group of people are much younger or older than the general population, comparisons may not be as valid”.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-05/fact-check-sudanese-gangs-victoria/10187550">According to</a> Dr Mark Wood of Melbourne University, the South Sudanese population in Victoria is “very young”, with 42% of the community under the age of 25, compared to one-third of the Australian general population.</p>
<p>The chart below shows Sudanese born alleged offenders tend to be younger than those born in Australia or New Zealand. </p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="QbDgo" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QbDgo/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<h2>The bigger picture about crime in Victoria</h2>
<p>The latest federal <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/justice">Report on Government Services (2018)</a> does highlight a significant drop in perceptions of public safety in Victoria. But it’s often the case that public perceptions do not match the reality.</p>
<p>The number and rate of all criminal incidents in Victoria have been at higher levels in recent years than they were in the period before the Andrews Labor government came to power in 2014. However, crime has <a href="https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-crime-data/recorded-criminal-incidents-2">declined in the last 12 months</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101308/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Goldsworthy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>All three groups are over-represented in the alleged offender population, with Sudan born offenders to a higher degree. But the vast majority of crime is committed by Australian born offenders.Terry Goldsworthy, Associate Professor in Criminology, Bond UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1058462018-11-05T03:58:47Z2018-11-05T03:58:47ZFactCheck: does Victoria have Australia’s highest rate of crime?<blockquote>
<p>But sadly, under Daniel Andrews Victoria has won the unenviable title as the state with the country’s highest rate of crime.</p>
<p><strong>– Leader of the Victorian Liberal Party Matthew Guy, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victorian-liberals-launch-tilt-at-state-leadership/news-story/65922b5514e5fbf3a8f5042c2ae37dda">speaking</a> at the party’s election campaign launch, 28 October, 2018</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Victorian Liberal Party has promised to take a tough stance on crime if elected on November 24, with proposals including mandatory minimum sentencing for repeat offenders of serious crimes (including murder, rape, aggravated home invasions, aggravated burglaries and car-jackings) and an overhaul of the bail system. </p>
<p>At the party’s election campaign launch, Victorian Opposition leader Matthew Guy said Labor had presided over a “law and order crisis”, adding that under Premier Daniel Andrews, “Victoria has won the unenviable title as the state with the country’s highest rate of crime”.</p>
<p>Is that right?</p>
<h2>Response from Matthew Guy’s office</h2>
<p>The Conversation asked a spokesperson for Matthew Guy for sources and comment to support his statement, but did not receive a response before deadline.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, it is possible to check the statement against publicly available data.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Leader of the Victorian Liberal Party Matthew Guy said that “under Daniel Andrews, Victoria has won the unenviable title as the state with the country’s highest rate of crime”. The assertion is incorrect.</p>
<p>The Andrews government was elected in November 2014. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Crime Victimisation Survey data, between July 2014 and June 2017 (the latest figures), Victoria did not top the nation in terms of crime rates for any but one of the 11 measured categories of personal and property crime.</p>
<p>Looking at the Crime Victimisation Survey results for three years up to and including 2016-17, Victoria showed the highest rate of sexual assault in two of those years. However, the ABS said the sexual assault data must be used with caution due to the small sample size. </p>
<p>For the other ten crime categories, the Victorian crime rate was lower than at least one other state or territory in each of the three years considered. </p>
<p>ABS Recorded Crime data show that between 2014 and 2017, Victoria did not have the highest rate of murder in the nation, nor did it have the highest rate of criminal offenders proceeded against by police at any time between November 2014 and June 2017.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Comparing crime rates between states and territories</h2>
<p>Making comparisons between recorded crime rates in different states and territories is fraught with difficulty, due to the differences in police practices and counting methods across the nation. </p>
<p>The most reliable data set for this task is the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4530.0Main+Features12016-17?OpenDocument">Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Crime Victimisation Survey</a>. Published <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/second+level+view?ReadForm&prodno=4530.0&viewtitle=Crime%20Victimisation,%20Australia%7E2016-17%7ELatest%7E16/02/2018&&tabname=Past%20Future%20Issues&prodno=4530.0&issue=2016-17&num=&view=&">annually since 2008-09</a>, the national survey collects data on people’s experience of violence and household crime. </p>
<p>The survey records both reported and unreported crimes. Given that not all crimes are reported to police, this provides us with a bigger picture.</p>
<p>The questions asked in the ABS Crime Victimisation Survey are the same for all states and territories. The victimisation rates represent the prevalence of selected crimes in Australia, expressed as a percentage of the total relevant population.</p>
<h2>Personal crime statistics</h2>
<p>This part of the survey records experiences of crime across: physical assault, face-to-face threatened physical assault, non-face-to-face threatened physical assault, sexual assault and robbery. </p>
<p>The Andrews government was sworn in on December 4, 2014, and the latest ABS Crime Victimisation Survey data are for 2016-17.</p>
<p>In the years <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D86E52390995CC89CA2580BA0018B424?opendocument">2014-15</a>, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D6A3384BCF91637DCA258235000CBF8E?opendocument">2015-16</a> and <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4530.0">2016-17</a>, Victoria did not have the highest rate in the nation for physical assault, face-to-face threatened physical assault, non-face-to-face threatened physical assault, or robbery. </p>
<p>Victoria did have the highest reported rate for sexual assault in 2015-16, and equal highest in 2014-15. However, the ABS warned that the data for Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia should be treated with caution due to the small sample size, and a relative standard error of 25% to 50%.</p>
<p>In addition, the data for Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory had a relative standard error <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/4530.02016-17">greater than 50%</a>, and was considered too unreliable for general use.</p>
<p>The most recent Crime Victimisation Survey data are presented below. </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VruH5/5/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="580"></iframe>
<hr>
<h2>Property crimes statistics</h2>
<p>The property crime element of the ABS survey covers home break-ins, attempted home break-ins, motor vehicle thefts, thefts from motor vehicles, malicious damage to property and other theft.</p>
<p>At no time in the years <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4530.0Main+Features100062014-15?OpenDocument">2014-15</a>, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D6A3384BCF91637DCA258235000CBF8E?opendocument">2015-16</a> or <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4530.0">2016-17</a> did Victoria have the nation’s highest rate of victimisation on any of these measures.</p>
<p>The chart below shows the latest available data:</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n4TAP/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="520"></iframe>
<hr>
<h2>Murder and homicide</h2>
<p>We can look to a different ABS data set – <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/second+level+view?ReadForm&prodno=4510.0&viewtitle=Recorded%20Crime%20-%20Victims,%20Australia%7E2017%7ELatest%7E28/06/2018&&tabname=Past%20Future%20Issues&prodno=4510.0&issue=2017&num=&view=&">ABS Recorded Crime - Victims</a> – to assess the murder rates across the states and territories for the calendar years from 2014 to 2017 (the latest year for which data are available). </p>
<p>However, there are missing data points in this record: no data were collected in the Northern Territory in 2016, Tasmania in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015, or the Australian Capital Territory in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2016. </p>
<p>Even with the missing data points, we can see that Victoria did not have the highest recorded murder rate in any of the years from the election of the Andrews government to 2017. </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rGAfW/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="500"></iframe>
<hr>
<p>The terms homicide and murder are sometimes used interchangeably, but in fact they mean different things. Homicide is a broader term that includes some counts of manslaughter, murder-suicides, and <a href="http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/homicide/">other incidents</a>.</p>
<p>The Australian Institute of Criminology publishes data from its National Homicide Monitoring Program. The <a href="http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/">latest report</a>, published in 2017, shows information between <a href="https://aic.gov.au/publications/sr/sr002">July 2012 and June 2014</a>, before the Andrews government was elected.</p>
<p>But as you can see from the chart below, the Northern Territory had a higher homicide incident rate than Victoria (and all other states and the Australian Capital Territory) every year between 1999-2000 and 2013-14. You can explore an interactive version of the chart <a href="http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/1_trends/">here</a>.</p>
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<h2>The issues with recorded crime data</h2>
<p>The ABS publishes “Recorded Crime” data on the number and rate of crime victims (with the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4510.0Main+Features12017?OpenDocument">latest data</a> reporting on the 2017 calendar year), and offenders formally proceeded against by police (with the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4519.0Main+Features12016-17?OpenDocument">latest data</a> reporting on the 2016-17 financial year).</p>
<p>These data sets aren’t ideal for comparing crime rates between states and territories, for a few reasons. </p>
<p>The data come from state and territory police administrative computer systems. Each state has subtly different recording methods and police practices, and this affects the comparability of data. </p>
<p>In addition, people’s willingness to report crime to police can differ across the states and territories. As such, the crime victims data are less reliable for measuring crime rates than the Crime Victimisation Survey.</p>
<p>The ABS introduced rules to guide the recording and counting of criminal incidents for statistical purposes, to enable consistency across the states and territories. But there remains some <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4510.0Explanatory%20Notes12017?OpenDocument">variability in the interpretation of the rules</a>. </p>
<p>The offender data are considered to be a reliable indication of <em>legal actions</em>. But they’re not a direct indicator of crime rates, due to the issues outlined above. Different jurisdictions also have different crime “clear up rates” (the percentage of a category of crimes that are solved).</p>
<p>The number of people arrested and proceeded against, and the types of crimes they are arrested for, can have as much to do with changes in legislation, police policy and practices in different jurisdictions as the number of criminal incidents committed. </p>
<p>It’s very important to keep those caveats in mind when looking at the data in the following chart.</p>
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<h2>What’s the picture for Victoria?</h2>
<p>The data in the chart below is published by the Victorian Crime Statistics Agency, and relates to crime in Victoria only. </p>
<p>The offences shown were chosen as their recorded incidence is generally considered to reflect their prevalence in the community, and the recorded rates are not overly impacted by law enforcement initiatives. </p>
<p>The recorded rates of drug offences and justice offences, by comparison, can be heavily affected by discretionary police decisions.</p>
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<p><strong>– Don Weatherburn, with Jackie Fitzgerald, director, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research</strong></p>
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<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>This FactCheck is accurate and based on reliable data. The verdict is correct: Victoria does not have the highest rate of crime.</p>
<p>It it worth observing that the latest federal <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/justice">Report on Government Services (2018)</a> does highlight a significant drop in perceptions of public safety in Victoria. Often the public’s perceptions do not match the reality.</p>
<p>It is also noteworthy that the <a href="https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-crime-data/recorded-criminal-incidents-2">number and rate of criminal incidents in Victoria</a> have been at higher levels in recent years compared to before the Andrews government came to power. <strong>– Terry Goldsworthy</strong></p>
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<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit was the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorian Opposition leader Matthew Guy said under Premier Daniel Andrews, ‘Victoria has won the unenviable title as the state with the country’s highest rate of crime’. Is that right?Don Weatherburn, Director of the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research; Adjunct Professor, School of Social Science, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1048622018-10-30T02:58:44Z2018-10-30T02:58:44ZWaiting for better care: why Australia’s hospitals and health care are failing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242387/original/file-20181025-71038-17bngcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Health is the largest single component of state government expenditure.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/245905492?src=jhlWisgjKa449M1gf5-h5A-1-61&size=huge_jpg">Shutterstock/hxdbzxy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This week we’re exploring nine different policy areas across Australia’s states, as detailed in Grattan Institute’s State Orange Book 2018. Read the other articles in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2018-61464">here</a></em>.</p>
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<p>Australia has a good health system by international standards, but it has to get better. Half of all patients across Australia wait more than a month for an elective hospital procedure, such as a hip replacement. This is in addition to waiting for an outpatient visit so they can be added to the elective procedure wait list. </p>
<p>“Elective” here doesn’t mean the patient can do without the procedure – they may be in pain or having trouble moving around while waiting. Elective simply means it doesn’t have to be done immediately and can be scheduled.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-keep-patients-safe-in-hospitals-the-accreditation-system-needs-an-overhaul-101513">To keep patients safe in hospitals, the accreditation system needs an overhaul</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>About 9% of people in New South Wales and about 25% in South Australia wait more than a year for public dental services, such as fillings, extractions and root canals. </p>
<p>Physicians report nearly one-third of patients with an acute mental illness wait more than eight hours in hospital emergency departments.</p>
<p>The Grattan Institute’s <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/state-orange-book-2018/">State Orange Book 2018</a> charts the performance, maps a route to improvement, and recommends penalties for states that fail to meet waiting list targets. </p>
<h2>Why hospitals are always key state election issues</h2>
<p>Health is the largest single component of state government expenditure in every state of Australia, and <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/budget-pressures-on-australian-governments-2014/">has been growing rapidly</a>. About two-thirds of <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/health-welfare-expenditure/health-expenditure-australia-2015-16/contents/summary">state government health spending</a> – excluding transfers from the Commonwealth – is on public hospitals. </p>
<p>Just over half the population does not have health insurance and so relies on public hospitals for all their care. Even for people with private insurance, public hospitals are their principal source of emergency care. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242391/original/file-20181025-71017-1e527cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242391/original/file-20181025-71017-1e527cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242391/original/file-20181025-71017-1e527cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242391/original/file-20181025-71017-1e527cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242391/original/file-20181025-71017-1e527cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242391/original/file-20181025-71017-1e527cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242391/original/file-20181025-71017-1e527cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even Australians with private health insurance use public emergency departments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/270431723?src=CRCnZ-2UKKWBIUb0mQBTmg-1-12&size=huge_jpg">Annette Shaff/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>State governments are responsible for public hospitals, so hospital care is always a key issue in state elections. It is therefore no surprise state governments love to tell us how much they are doing for public hospitals, and election campaigns are often jam-packed with promises of new or expanded hospitals.</p>
<p>The politicians, at least in states with growing populations, are right that more beds are needed. What matters for the public, though, is not how many beds there are, but whether there are enough. One way of measuring that is waiting times, and here the picture isn’t as rosy as campaigning politicians would like us to believe.</p>
<h2>Waiting for elective hospital procedures</h2>
<p>It’s bad enough half of all patients across Australia wait more than a month for an elective procedure from the time they were booked. What’s worse is that about 10% wait more than six months. </p>
<p>In our smallest state, Tasmania, 10% of patients wait about a year. In the biggest state, NSW, the situation is almost as bad. </p>
<p><strong>This graph shows the waiting time (days) for elective procedures, 2012-13 to 2016-17, for the 10% of patients who wait longest (orange) and the median (maroon):</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242860/original/file-20181030-76384-o3lxkt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242860/original/file-20181030-76384-o3lxkt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242860/original/file-20181030-76384-o3lxkt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242860/original/file-20181030-76384-o3lxkt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242860/original/file-20181030-76384-o3lxkt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242860/original/file-20181030-76384-o3lxkt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242860/original/file-20181030-76384-o3lxkt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242860/original/file-20181030-76384-o3lxkt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute/Australian Institute of Health and Welfare</span></span>
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<p>Publicly reported data focus on elective procedure or elective surgery waiting times, but there is another important wait: from the time a patient is referred to the hospital to the time they are seen in an outpatient clinic. This is sometimes called the <a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-an-initial-specialists-appointment-is-the-hidden-waitlist-99507">“hidden waiting list”</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-an-initial-specialists-appointment-is-the-hidden-waitlist-99507">Getting an initial specialists' appointment is the hidden waitlist</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>For the patient, the wait for an appointment with an outpatient clinic matters – it delays diagnosis and treatment. Yet these waits are not publicly reported in NSW, Western Australia, the Australian Capital Territory or the Northern Territory. And the states that do report outpatient clinic wait times do not use consistent measures. </p>
<p>Our state and territory governments should strengthen hospital accountability to reduce combined outpatient and inpatient waiting times. There should be clear consequences and penalties for failure to meet targets.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242392/original/file-20181025-71026-19w3hop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242392/original/file-20181025-71026-19w3hop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242392/original/file-20181025-71026-19w3hop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242392/original/file-20181025-71026-19w3hop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242392/original/file-20181025-71026-19w3hop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242392/original/file-20181025-71026-19w3hop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242392/original/file-20181025-71026-19w3hop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">First you have to wait to get on the waiting list. Then you get booked in for your procedure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/counting-down-days-calendar-110130863?src=e7fmSXAl-CJ1LfyBpfMKeg-1-2">Shutterstock/cvm</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Waiting for public dental care</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.coaghealthcouncil.gov.au/Portals/0/Australia%27s%20National%20Oral%20Health%20Plan%202015-2024_uploaded%20170216.pdf">COAG Health Council</a> (made up of Commonwealth, state and territory health officials) says current funding for public dental services allows for treatment of only about 20% of the eligible population. </p>
<p>The remaining 80% have to wait for long periods, pay for relatively expensive care in the private sector, or go without care entirely.</p>
<p>Waiting times vary significantly among states. And in several states, notably Vic and SA, <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/health/primary-and-community-health">waiting times have got longer in recent years</a>.</p>
<p>Boosting public dental services will improve people’s health and reduce the strain on hospitals. </p>
<p>In 2015-16, there were <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/acee86da-d98e-4286-85a4-52840836706f/aihw-hse-201.pdf.aspx?inline=true">67,266 hospital admissions for potentially preventable dental conditions</a> – more than one-fifth of all hospital admissions for potentially preventable acute conditions.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poor-and-elderly-australians-let-down-by-ailing-primary-health-system-100586">Poor and elderly Australians let down by ailing primary health system</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Unforgivably, our state governments have not delivered on a 2012 commitment to monitor waiting times for public dental care through a National Healthcare Agreement performance indicator. Data inconsistencies mean it is <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/df234a9a-5c47-4483-9cf7-15ce162d3461/aihw-den-230.pdf.aspx?inline=true">not possible to reliably compare public dental waiting lists</a> across states and territories. </p>
<p>NSW does not provide data on public dental waiting lists at all, citing concerns about the potential for misleading comparisons. The only comparable data we have is from an Australian Bureau of Statistics sample survey, which shows more than 10% of patients across the country wait more than a year for public dental care. </p>
<p><strong>This graph shows the proportion of people who waited more than a year for public dental services:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242862/original/file-20181030-76402-11wzj6r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242862/original/file-20181030-76402-11wzj6r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242862/original/file-20181030-76402-11wzj6r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242862/original/file-20181030-76402-11wzj6r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242862/original/file-20181030-76402-11wzj6r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242862/original/file-20181030-76402-11wzj6r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242862/original/file-20181030-76402-11wzj6r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242862/original/file-20181030-76402-11wzj6r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: The figures in smaller states should be regarded as approximate; the percentages are of those who have been seen, and do not include those still waiting at the time of the survey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute/Australian Bureau of Statistics</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Waiting for mental health care</h2>
<p>Campaigners say Australia has reached a “tipping point” on access to mental health care. Physicians report nearly one-third of patients with an acute mental illness wait more than eight hours in emergency departments. </p>
<p>We know this does damage: long waits for access to community mental health services can result in poorer outcomes for patients, as a condition may be harder to control the longer it persists. Long waits may also place additional pressure on families or friends who face the consequences of their friend or family member’s behaviour. </p>
<p>Yet there is no information about the adequacy of community mental health services in Australia. The 2017 <a href="http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/mental-fifth-national-mental-health-plan">National Mental Health and Suicide Prevention Plan</a> only tracks the use of services, not their adequacy. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-australians-can-stay-healthier-and-out-of-hospital-heres-how-55746">More Australians can stay healthier and out of hospital – here's how</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>In contrast, Canadian governments have agreed that a <a href="http://www.highperforminghealthcaresystems.com/content/25550">wide range of mental health and addictions indicators</a> will be collected and reported from 2019. </p>
<p>Australian voters should demand their state governments do the same thing. We should wait no longer for a better health system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104862/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website. The State Orange Book 2018, from which this article draws, was supported by a grant from the Susan McKinnon Foundation.</span></em></p>Australians are waiting too long for elective surgery, dental care and treatment for mental health. It’s no wonder health is a vote-changer.Stephen Duckett, Director, Health Program, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1057282018-10-29T19:11:03Z2018-10-29T19:11:03ZIf we’re to have another inquiry into mental health, it should look at why the others have been ignored<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242668/original/file-20181029-7041-706hr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Despite numerous inquiries and hundreds of recommendations in mental health over the years, little has changed. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdownload.shutterstock.com%2Fgatekeeper%2FW3siZSI6MTU0MDgxNTAzMCwiYyI6Il9waG90b19zZXNzaW9uX2lkIiwiZGMiOiJpZGxfMjQ3NzY0Nzc4IiwiayI6InBob3RvLzI0Nzc2NDc3OC9odWdlLmpwZyIsIm0iOjEsImQiOiJzaHV0dGVyc3RvY2stbWVkaWEifSwiVWJlc2lZUng3eWtoQTBJekc5ZERPK3B4R2t3Il0%2Fshutterstock_247764778.jpg&pi=41133566&m=247764778&src=DzqP7DWs6Cs58lFIliBXbg-1-22">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-24/daniel-andrews-announces-mental-health-royal-commission-1/10423166">promised to hold a royal commission</a> into mental health if Labor wins the November state election. Last week’s announcement comes a couple of weeks after the federal government asked the <a href="http://jaf.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/024-2018/">Productivity Commission</a> to inquire “into the role of mental health in the Australian economy and the best ways to support and improve national mental well-being”.</p>
<p>The recently established <a href="https://agedcare.royalcommission.gov.au/Pages/Copyright.aspx">Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety</a> is also likely to deal with mental health care in residential care settings.</p>
<p>Inquiries are not new in mental health. There were 32 separate statutory inquiries into the sector between <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiRt7DzhaXeAhWL6Y8KHcGOAn0QFjAAegQIDRAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aph.gov.au%2FDocumentStore.ashx%3Fid%3D3a99d9cd-db59-4249-9120-861ff7ee2db4%26subId%3D32265&usg=AOvVaw3xOPcpQtrW9r6iarAIOu6Q">2006 and 2012 alone</a>, typically gathering first-person experiences. Despite years of stories and recommendations, very few, if any, have been implemented.</p>
<p>Storytelling in mental health is often traumatic. Healing comes not just with recognition but also through genuine action. If there must be a new inquiry, perhaps what is really needed is a community review into the failed implementation of mental health reform.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/insurance-changes-not-enough-to-drive-real-mental-health-reform-85753">Insurance changes not enough to drive real mental health reform</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Past inquiries</h2>
<p>In 1983, New South Wales released a report from the <a href="https://nswmentalhealthcommission.com.au/sites/default/files/Inquriy%20into%20Health%20Services%20for%20the%20Psychiatrically%20Ill%20and%20Developmentally%20Disabled%20-%20Richmond%20Report%20-%201983.pdf">Inquiry into Health Services for the Psychiatrically Ill and Developmentally Disabled</a> (also known as the Richmond report), which consisted of 400 pages and 102 recommendations. One of these was the establishment of multidisciplinary community mental health teams. Yet, to this day, the <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/mental-health-services/mental-health-services-in-australia/report-contents/summary-of-mental-health-services-in-australia">vast majority</a> of state-funded mental health services are still provided as either hospital inpatient, outpatient or emergency services.</p>
<p>In 1993, more than 450 witnesses shared mainly personal stories during the <a href="https://www.humanrights.gov.au/news/speeches/burdekin-national-inquiry">National Inquiry into the Human Rights of People with a Mental Illness</a>. This was established in response to reports these rights were being ignored or violated. The 1,008-page report had more than 100 recommendations, which included that mental health care occur in the “least restrictive” setting. </p>
<p>Change in this area has been slow. Mental health patients <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/mental-health-services/mental-health-services-in-australia/report-contents/restrictive-practices">endured seclusion</a> close to 12,000 times and physical or mechanical restraint 13,000 times in 2016-17. And 22 people died in Victoria <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi5ktzalaXeAhUWOSsKHRZdB2YQFjABegQIBxAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww2.health.vic.gov.au%2FApi%2Fdownloadmedia%2F%257BC1CDD7D3-549F-446B-88A5-C326F0249E1A%257D&usg=AOvVaw3t9IWy2QynXIPkidBau_hl">between 2011 and 2014</a> while in mental health inpatient units. Such incidents occur regularly across Australia, leading to yet more inquiries, such as the <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/Pages/inquiryprofile/inquiry-into-the-management-of-health-care-delivery-in-nsw.aspx#tab-timeline">Inquiry into the Management of Health Care Delivery in NSW</a>, which released its report in September 2018.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/should-we-be-forcing-people-with-severe-mental-illness-to-have-treatment-they-dont-want-63762">Should we be forcing people with severe mental illness to have treatment they don't want?</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>People again told their stories in 2005 as part of an inquiry into <a href="https://www.humanrights.gov.au/sites/default/files/content/disability_rights/notforservice/documents/NFS_Finaldoc.pdf">Experiences of Injustice and Despair in Mental Health Care in Australia</a>, conducted by the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission and the Mental Health Council of Australia. The aim was to assess the system’s performance against published national mental health standards and promote greater accountability. The 1,006-page report came with 26 recommendations, which included better funding for mental health.</p>
<p>Perhaps in contrast to what the community might think, this recommendation has also not been actioned. In 1992-93, the first year of the National Mental Health Strategy, <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/mental-health-services/mental-health-services-in-australia/report-contents/expenditure-on-mental-health-related-serviceshttps:/www.aihw.gov.au/reports/mental-health-services/mental-health-services-in-australia/report-contents/expenditure-on-mental-health-related-services">mental health accounted for 7.25%</a> of the total health budget. In 2015-16 this was 7.67%. That’s a negligible increase and quite out of proportion with the 12% contribution made by mental illness to the <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/1838295a-5588-4747-9515-b826a5ab3d5a/aihw-aus-221-chapter-3-12.pdf.aspx">total burden of disease</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242672/original/file-20181029-76416-1k19980.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242672/original/file-20181029-76416-1k19980.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242672/original/file-20181029-76416-1k19980.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242672/original/file-20181029-76416-1k19980.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242672/original/file-20181029-76416-1k19980.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242672/original/file-20181029-76416-1k19980.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242672/original/file-20181029-76416-1k19980.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242672/original/file-20181029-76416-1k19980.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Storytelling in mental health is often traumatic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/oTHXpT6nJsE">Jeremy Perkins/Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2006, the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Former_Committees/mentalhealth/report/index">Australian Senate</a> conducted another inquiry to assist the Council of Australian Governments’ consideration of mental health. More stories were told and published. The 600 pages and 13 recommendations included advice for national investment in up to 400 new community mental health centres across Australia – again a proposal left unfulfilled.</p>
<p>More recently the <a href="http://www.mentalhealthcommission.gov.au/our-reports/our-national-report-cards/2014-contributing-lives-review.aspx">National Mental Health Commission’s 2014 Contributing Lives Review</a> produced a 1,000-page report with 25 recommendations. One of these suggested that A$1 billion of growth funding (over five years) earmarked for hospital-based mental health services be redirected towards regional services provided in the community. </p>
<p>The federal government, which had commissioned the report, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/15/sussan-ley-rules-out-redirecting-1bn-from-hospitals-to-mental-health-services">ruled this out</a> even before the review had been formally <a href="http://www.mentalhealthcommission.gov.au/media-centre/news/national-review-of-mental-health-programmes-and-services-report-released.aspx">released</a>. </p>
<h2>Where to focus</h2>
<p>In recent years, almost all Australian jurisdictions (except the Northern Territory and Tasmania) <a href="https://nswmentalhealthcommission.com.au/">have established</a> <a href="https://www.mhc.wa.gov.au/">mental health commissions</a>. These are not all the same, but they do share common functions – to drive reform and improve accountability in the sector. How these bodies work with other “special” commissions is unclear. One job could be to ensure recommendations are fulfilled, but this is not a role they currently play.</p>
<p>Looking back on reports over the years, high-value targets include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>early intervention (with a focus on children and youth) in any episode of illness</p></li>
<li><p>better access to mental health support in regional areas</p></li>
<li><p>safety, including ending seclusion and restraint (as promised in 2007)</p></li>
<li><p>putting people and families at the centre of care, including in policy and planning</p></li>
<li><p>building non-hospital alternatives, particularly for acute care but also across the whole service spectrum</p></li>
<li><p>empowering the community sector to manage psychological and social rehabilitation, housing, social welfare, employment and education support</p></li>
<li><p>using new technologies to improve the access, quality and accountability of care.</p></li>
</ul>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mental-health-funding-in-the-2017-budget-is-too-little-unfair-and-lacks-a-coherent-strategy-77470">Mental health funding in the 2017 budget is too little, unfair and lacks a coherent strategy</a>
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</em>
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<p>Royal commissions often investigate impropriety and apportion blame. But impropriety is not the issue. The key challenge in mental health is finding the political will and the financial, community and professional resources to do what has already been described in thousands of pages and hundreds of recommendations.</p>
<p>Consumers, carers, health professionals and service providers could interrogate politicians, past and present, as to why they have spent so much time (and money) finding out what needed to be done in mental health, only to ignore the advice they received.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sebastian Rosenberg has provided consultancy services to several mental health commissions.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Hickie receives Research Fellowship funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council. He was a Commissioner of the National Mental Health Commission from 2012 to 2018. </span></em></p>The key challenge in mental health is finding the political will and the financial and community resources to do what has already been described in thousands of pages and hundreds of recommendations.Sebastian Rosenberg, Fellow, Centre for Mental Health Research, Australian National UniversityIan Hickie, Professor of Psychiatry, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1050512018-10-29T19:10:37Z2018-10-29T19:10:37ZInfrastructure splurge ignores smarter ways to keep growing cities moving<p><em>This week we’re exploring the state of nine different policy areas across Australia’s states, as detailed in Grattan Institute’s <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/?post_type=report&p=6974&preview=true">State Orange Book 2018</a>. Read the other articles in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2018-61464">here</a></em>.</p>
<hr>
<p>It’s already started. We may be only entering the formal election campaign in Victoria <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victorian_state_election,_2018">tonight</a>, but massive transport announcements are in full swing from the state Labor government, the Coalition opposition and the Greens. And with an election due next March in New South Wales, we can be sure the major parties in that state won’t be far behind.</p>
<p>Expanding the capacity of the transport network always gets far more attention than other ways of managing a fast-growing population. In reality, though, governments have a far bigger menu of options to keep Australia’s capital cities moving – and they should use them all.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-hardly-ever-trust-big-transport-announcements-heres-how-politicians-get-it-right-101246">We hardly ever trust big transport announcements – here's how politicians get it right</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Big spending promises all round</h2>
<p>The swag of promises in Victoria to date has been big on rail. The Andrews government would, if returned, build a 90km <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b46af5a55b02cea2a648e93/t/5b84f70f88251b6aa6f607b8/1535440660600/180828-Underground-Suburban-Rail-Loop-To-Connect-Victoria.pdf">suburban rail loop</a> connecting all major suburban lines. Work is to start in 2022 at an announced cost of A$50 billion. </p>
<p>A Matthew Guy-led Coalition government would, if elected, build <a href="https://vic.liberal.org.au/News/2018-10-03/high-speed-rail-for-victoria">high-speed-rail to regional cities</a>. The first trains would come into operation within four years, at an announced cost of A$15-19 billion. </p>
<p>And the Greens? They would <a href="http://www.railpage.com.au/news/s/greens-call-for-more-melbourne-trains">upgrade suburban rail signalling and add 100 extra high-capacity trains</a>, at a cost of A$8.5 billion.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-evidence-base-for-big-calls-on-infrastructure-costs-us-all-99080">Missing evidence base for big calls on infrastructure costs us all</a>
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<p>If talkback radio is any guide, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-22/melbourne-50-billion-dollar-rail-loop-planning-questioned/10385702">these plans are popular</a>. People love the idea of a magnificent new rail system that perhaps they’ll use or, more likely, that they hope all those people who currently clog up the roads will use instead. After all, Melbourne is a very car-dependent city. And, with <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/909-Remarkably-adaptive-Australian-cities-in-a-time-of-growth-high-res.pdf">three-quarters of all the jobs dispersed all over the city</a>, that’s unlikely to change much any time soon.</p>
<p>People also love big new infrastructure because it feels as though it comes for free. While a politician may have to pick just one from a menu of large projects, voters don’t have to confront this kind of choice.</p>
<p>Rather, we face the difference between a new station or service near our home, or no such new station or service. If you are the beneficiary of a new rail service, you may support the candidate promising it. By contrast, the losers are dispersed, and it’s hard to get too agitated about services we never had.</p>
<h2>Look more closely at what is happening</h2>
<p>But new transport infrastructure is far from the only way to cope with population growth. Even though Melbourne has had extremely high population growth, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/909-Remarkably-adaptive-Australian-cities-in-a-time-of-growth-high-res.pdf">averaging 2.3% a year</a> over the five years to 2016, <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-fast-growing-cities-and-their-people-are-proving-to-be-remarkably-adaptable-103992">commuting distances and times have remained remarkably stable</a>. </p>
<p>The median commute distance for Melburnians barely increased, from 8.6km to 8.7km, over the five years to the most recent Census in 2016. The median commute time has remained at 30 minutes each way since 2007.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: Working-age respondents to the Hilda Survey report commuting times for a typical week. These are converted here to times for an individual trip. BITRE (2016) finds that the travel times HILDA respondents report closely match other measures of travel times, further supported by Grattan analysis of Transport for Victoria (2018).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Grattan analysis of HILDA (2016)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-fast-growing-cities-and-their-people-are-proving-to-be-remarkably-adaptable-103992">Our fast-growing cities and their people are proving to be remarkably adaptable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These stable commute times and distances have coincided with a period of only limited new infrastructure construction. Victoria’s additions – <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/assessing-benefits-regional-rail-link-project?section=32786">Regional Rail Link</a>, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/auditor-hits-2b-road-project-20110601-1fgpe.html">Peninsula Link</a> and the <a href="https://infrastructurepipeline.org/project/m80-ring-road-upgrade/">M80 Ring Road</a> – are modest compared to Queensland and NSW’s. The road stock in Melbourne <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/909-Remarkably-adaptive-Australian-cities-in-a-time-of-growth-high-res.pdf">increased by 4.3% over the five years to 2015, significantly less than the population increase of 11.9%</a>. </p>
<p>The A$1.3 billion <a href="http://citylinktullawidening.vic.gov.au/about">CityLink Tullamarine widening project</a> finished recently, and the A$8.3 billion <a href="https://levelcrossings.vic.gov.au/">level crossing removal project</a> is more than half-completed, but these projects are too new to explain the remarkable stability of commutes over the period of booming population.</p>
<p>Despite only modest new infrastructure, people have adapted. Some have changed job or worksite, and working from home is on the rise. Some people moved house, or even left the city. And some changed their method of travel, leaving the car at home and catching the train, tram or bus to work. Other people simply accepted a longer commute, at least for a time, and particularly if they were earning more. </p>
<p>Of course, not everyone is better off when the population grows rapidly. Some people elect not to take a new job that’s too far from home; some pay higher rent, or cannot afford a place they once could have. But the lesson from Melbourne is that people are not hapless victims of population growth, depending for their well-being on governments building the next freeway or rail extension.</p>
<h2>So what are the best ways to help cities cope?</h2>
<p>The Grattan Institute’s <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/state-orange-book-2018/">State Orange Book 2018</a> recommends that governments work with, not against, the adaptations that people make. Here are three ways state governments can help:</p>
<ol>
<li>They should stop making it so hard to move house, by replacing stamp duty with a broad-based land tax. </li>
<li>They should stop locking new residents out of their preferred locations, by combining a relaxation of zoning restrictions on residential density with clear assignment of on-street parking rights.</li>
<li>The incoming governments of Victoria and NSW should introduce time-of-day road congestion charges in the most congested parts of Melbourne and Sydney (offset by a cut to vehicle registration fees), with the funds earmarked for public transport improvements.</li>
</ol>
<p>Let’s see what the vying parties can do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105051/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities. The State Orange Book 2018, from which this article draws, was supported by a grant from the Susan McKinnon Foundation.
</span></em></p>In the election bidding wars, parties commit billions to transport projects, often before all the work needed to justify these has been done. More cost-effective alternatives hardly get a look-in.Marion Terrill, Transport Program Director, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1056572018-10-29T03:38:10Z2018-10-29T03:38:10ZPoll wrap: Morrison’s ratings slump in Newspoll; Wentworth’s huge difference in on-the-day and early voting<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242649/original/file-20181029-7074-1xxtfnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It took six months for Malcolm Turnbull to receive his first negative Newspoll net approval as PM; it has taken Scott Morrison just two months.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/464107f0ac68c04bc33948da5cfd477e?width=650">week’s Newspoll</a>, conducted October 25-28 from a sample of 1,650, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (down one), 9% Greens (down two) and 6% One Nation (steady). Rounding probably assisted Labor in this poll.</p>
<p>41% were satisfied with Scott Morrison (down four), and 44% were dissatisfied (up six), for a net approval of -3, down ten points. Bill Shorten’s net approval was up three points to -13. While Shorten’s ratings are poor, this is his best net approval this term. Morrison led Shorten by 43-35 as better PM (45-34 last fortnight).</p>
<p>58% thought Morrison should hold the election when due next year, while 33% thought he should call an early election before the end of this year.</p>
<p>Since <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll">Morrison became PM</a>, his net approvals have been +2, +5, +7 and now -3. Turnbull’s first four net approvals were +18, +25, +35 and +32. It took six months for Turnbull to receive his first negative Newspoll net approval, it has taken Morrison just two months.</p>
<p>According to analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1056508715614883840">Kevin Bonham</a>, even if Morrison never receives another positive Newspoll net approval, he will still have more positive net approvals than either Tony Abbott (two) or Paul Keating (zero) did as PM.</p>
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<p>Morrison’s slump could be caused by the Liberals’ loss of Wentworth, but it could also be due to increasingly bad perceptions of the Coalition over issues such as climate change. The falls in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/business/">stock market</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-29/house-price-falls-chart-of-the-day/10418478?section=business">house prices</a> are likely to impact consumer confidence, and governments usually perform worse when the economy is not perceived to be doing well.</p>
<h2>Essential: 53-47 to Labor</h2>
<p>Last week’s <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Essential-Report-231018.pdf">Essential poll</a>, mostly taken before the Wentworth byelection, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged from three weeks ago. Primary votes were also unchanged, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor 37%, the Greens 10% and One Nation 7%. This poll was conducted October 18-21 from a sample of 1,027.</p>
<p>Essential uses the previous election method to assign preferences, assuming One Nation preferences split about 50-50. Since December 2017, Newspoll has assumed One Nation preferences split about 60-40 to the Coalition. If Essential and Newspoll used the same method, there would probably be a two-point gap between the two. Since Morrison became PM, Newspoll has given Labor better two party results than Essential despite the One Nation adjustment.</p>
<p>60% (up nine since April) cited cost-of-living as one of their top three issues, while 37% cited health (up one), 29% housing affordability (steady) and 27% creating jobs (down five). Income and business tax cuts were at the bottom with just 12% and 5% respectively who thought they were important issues.</p>
<p>59% thought the change of PM had made no difference and the Morrison government was still the same government, while 20% thought it was a new government. By 35-28, they preferred Morrison to Turnbull as PM (57-29 among Coalition voters).</p>
<p>63% (down one since September 2017) thought that climate change was caused by human activity, while 25% (up one) thought we were just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. 56% (steady) thought Australia was not doing enough to address climate change, 23% (up three) thought we were doing enough, and 7% (down one) thought we were doing too much.</p>
<p>37% did not support a separate national day to recognise Indigenous Australians, 36% supported a separate day alongside Australia Day, and just 14% supported a separate day instead of Australia Day.</p>
<h2>Massive difference between on-the-day and early voting in Wentworth</h2>
<p>With probably fewer than 1,000 postal votes to come before Friday’s deadline for reception, independent Kerryn Phelps won the October 20 <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-22844-152.htm">Wentworth</a> byelection by a 51.2-48.8 margin over Liberal Dave Sharma, a vote margin of 1,783, and a swing of 18.9% against the Liberals. Primary votes were 43.1% Liberal (down 19.1%), 29.2% Phelps, 11.5% Labor (down 6.2%) and 8.6% Greens (down 6.3%).</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/wentworth-byelection-called-too-early-for-phelps-as-liberals-recover-in-late-counting-104563">Wentworth byelection called too early for Phelps as Liberals recover in late counting</a>
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<p>Early on election night, Wentworth was called for Phelps owing to her strong performance on election-day booths. Pre-poll and postal votes counted by October 21 were much stronger than expected for Sharma, as this tweet from the ABC’s Antony Green shows.</p>
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<p>Green also tweeted that there has been a big drop in Sharma’s percentage share of the postals as later batches are counted. Sharma was at 64.4% on postals counted by the morning of October 21, but dropped to just 44.3% in postals counted October 25. Later postals would have been sent closer to the election date.</p>
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<p>Later postals tend to be less conservative-friendly than earlier ones, but not to this extent. It is clear from this data that Wentworth voters shifted decisively against the Liberals in the final days.</p>
<p>I think the most important reason for this shift was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/16/government-blames-administrative-error-for-its-support-for-its-ok-to-be-white-vote">Coalition senators voting</a> with Pauline Hanson on her “It’s OK to be white” motion. This motion would have absolutely no appeal to an electorate with a high level of <a href="http://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/CED145">educational attainment</a> relative to the overall population.</p>
<h2>Victorian Galaxy poll: 53-47 to Labor</h2>
<p>The Victorian election will be held on November 24. A <a href="https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/1055781307337207809">Galaxy poll</a> for the Bus Association, conducted last week from an unknown sample, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since September. Primary votes were 40% Labor (down two), 39% Coalition (down one) and 12% Greens (up two). This poll was probably close to 54-46 to Labor.</p>
<p>44% approved of Premier Daniel Andrews (up four), and 35% disapproved (down seven), for a net approval of +9, up eleven points. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy’s net approval was up one point to -18.</p>
<p>Since the change in PM, there have been two 53-47 to Labor results from Galaxy, and a 52-48 from ReachTEL. Labor is likely to win the Victorian election, though they could be forced into a minority government if the Greens take inner city seats.</p>
<h2>US midterm elections, and far-right wins Brazil presidential election</h2>
<p>US midterm elections will be held on November 6. I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/27/us-mid-terms-minus-11-days/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday that Democrats are likely to win the House, but Republicans are likely to retain the Senate. Trump’s ratings dropped from highs last seen in March 2017. The recent far-right terrorist events may shift public opinion.</p>
<p>The Brazilian presidential election runoff was held Sunday after no candidate won an <a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-slips-in-newspoll-but-gains-in-ipsos-in-wentworth-and-in-victoria-104562">outright majority</a> in the first round on October 7. The far-right candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_general_election,_2018">defeated</a> the left-wing Workers’ Party candidate, Fernando Haddad, by a 55.1-44.9 margin. Bolsonaro has made comments sympathetic to the 1964-85 Brazil military dictatorship. Corruption by the established parties and a recession are key reasons for this result.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105657/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the aftermath of the Wentworth byelection, the Coalition government has suffered another set-back in the polls.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1055072018-10-24T19:04:47Z2018-10-24T19:04:47ZVictorian election 2018: how to spot and suggest a fact check<p>Between now and November 24, when Victorians will choose their next government, they’re sure to be hit with more than their fair share of political spin, misinformation, half-truths, and maybe even a few brazen falsehoods.</p>
<p>That’s why we’ll be turning our fact-checking efforts to the issues facing Victorians as they decide the future course of their state. </p>
<p>And it’s why we want to hear from you, our readers – particularly those of you who live in Victoria. What’s the most pressing issue for you in this election campaign? What do you want to see fact-checked?</p>
<p>With your help, we’ll identify the most questionable claims and test them against the evidence, working with some of Australia’s leading academic experts to bring you information you can trust. </p>
<p>Here’s how you can get in touch with us, plus some ideas for locating material in need of myth-busting.</p>
<h2>Things that make you go ‘hmmm’</h2>
<p>Many of our FactChecks are published in response to statements made by politicians and other influential public figures. But there are plenty of other potential sources of misinformation. </p>
<p>Whenever you read or hear something that makes you think: “Really? Is that right?” That’s the perfect time to request a FactCheck. </p>
<p>For a claim to be checkable, there needs to be a data set or body of research evidence against which it can be tested. But don’t worry too much about that – we can assess the possibilities when we receive your suggestion.</p>
<p>The email address for requests is <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. It helps if you can let us know where and when you came across the claim. </p>
<p>If the source is an <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-can-native-title-only-exist-if-australia-was-settled-not-invaded-90540">online article</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-getup-on-the-impact-of-us-corporate-tax-cuts-on-wages-100753">social media post</a>, send us a link, where possible.</p>
<p>If it’s something you see in print, perhaps in <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-was-christian-porter-right-about-welfare-spending-and-income-tax-78609">a newspaper</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-would-pokies-reform-in-south-australia-wipe-out-many-of-26-000-jobs-93189">a letter</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-will-safe-schools-be-mandatory-if-same-sex-marriage-is-legalised-84437">a pamphlet</a>, consider taking a photo with your phone, and send it in.</p>
<p>It’s not always easy to remember the exact details of a quote, especially if you <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-have-the-trump-tax-cuts-led-to-lower-unemployment-and-higher-wages-101460">heard it on the radio</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-australias-population-the-highest-growing-in-the-world-96523">on television</a>. In those cases, just provide as much information as you can. </p>
<p>Perhaps the questionable claim is something you heard at a <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-does-south-australia-have-the-highest-energy-prices-in-the-nation-and-the-least-reliable-grid-92928">leaders’ debate</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-are-up-to-21-fathers-dying-by-suicide-every-week-87308">community event</a>.</p>
<p>It could be a statement made in an <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-do-bank-profits-belong-to-everyday-australians-88156">advertisement</a>, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-will-700-000-workers-be-ripped-off-by-penalty-rate-cuts-as-bill-shorten-said-75048">a robo-call</a> from a politician. </p>
<p>There’s a growing trend of misinformation being spread through private messaging platforms <a href="https://www.poynter.org/news/heres-why-fighting-fake-news-harder-whatsapp-facebook">like WhatsApp</a>. If you receive a viral message or meme that you would like to share with us, you can take a screen shot on your phone. If you’re not sure how to do that, you can find instructions <a href="https://support.apple.com/en-au/HT200289">here</a> and <a href="https://www.greenbot.com/article/2825064/android/how-to-take-a-screenshot-on-your-android-phone.html">here</a>.</p>
<p>Alternatively, if you haven’t spotted a particular claim, but there’s an election issue you’re interested in, or a perception in your community you’d like to see explored in more detail, <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">let us know</a>. </p>
<h2>How we do FactChecks at The Conversation</h2>
<p>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit has been running since January 2013. </p>
<p>Our method is unique, and we’re proud of it. Our experienced journalists work closely with some of Australia’s most respected academic experts to test claims against the best available data and scientific research. Our FactCheck authors bring years, and often decades, of expertise to the task.</p>
<p>After being rigorously researched, verified and tested from all angles, each FactCheck is subject to a blind review from another academic expert, who analyses the article without knowing the author’s identity. This is a valuable process that ensures the integrity and accuracy of The Conversation’s FactChecks.</p>
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<p>These are just some of the reasons our FactCheck unit is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">accredited</a> by the <a href="https://ifcncodeofprinciples.poynter.org/">International Fact-Checking Network</a>, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the <a href="https://www.poynter.org/">Poynter Institute</a> in the United States. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ifcncodeofprinciples.poynter.org/profile/the-conversation-factcheck/applications">accreditation</a> means we’re committed to a <a href="https://ifcncodeofprinciples.poynter.org/know-more/the-commitments-of-the-code-of-principles">code of principles</a> that require non-partisanship and fairness, transparency of sources and methodology, transparency of funding and organisation, and a commitment to open and honest corrections.</p>
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<h2>Steal our FactChecks (seriously)</h2>
<p>At The Conversation, we believe a healthy information ecosystem is fundamental to a healthy society, and that everyone should have access to accurate information.</p>
<p>That’s why The Conversation publishes all of its content under a <a href="https://creativecommons.org.au/">Creative Commons</a> <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">licence</a>. This means our FactChecks, and all other articles, can be republished online or in print, for free.</p>
<p>Our FactChecks have been republished by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/21/factcheck-are-5000-jobs-at-risk-if-pokies-are-banned-in-tasmania">The Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-14/the-conversation-fact-check-does-sa-have-highest-energy-prices/9546506">the ABC</a>, <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/topics/sexuality/agenda/article/2017/10/03/factcheck-will-safe-schools-be-mandatory-if-same-sex-marriage-legalised">SBS</a>, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/its-true-wa-has-the-nations-highest-rate-of-methamphetamine-use-20170215-gudidj.html">Fairfax</a> and <a href="https://croakey.org/factcheck-do-women-in-tasmania-have-access-to-safe-abortions/">more</a>.</p>
<p>All you need to do is click the blue “Republish this article” button on the right hand side of the article. The republishing guidelines are simple, and you can find them <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/republishing-guidelines">here</a>. </p>
<h2>Stay in touch</h2>
<p>You might like to sign up to our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/newsletters">GetFacts newsletter</a>, so you can receive FactChecks direct to your inbox when they’re published.</p>
<p>The GetFacts newsletter is also home to blind reviewed articles from The Conversation’s excellent <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/research-check-25155">Research Check</a> series and other great <a href="https://theconversation.com/would-an-eruption-in-melbourne-really-match-hawaiis-volcanoes-heres-the-evidence-101675?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GetFacts%20volcano&utm_content=GetFacts%20volcano+CID_5438c1c7102fee4ac275270de43d23b1&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=to%20give%20us%20the%20geological%20low%20down">myth-busting science pieces</a>.</p>
<p>We look forward to reading your FactCheck suggestions, and wish you a well-informed election season.</p>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit was the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
With just over four weeks to go until the Victorian state election, we’d like to know which topics matter to you, and what you’d most like to see fact-checked. Here’s how you can get involved.Lucinda Beaman, FactCheck EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1045622018-10-15T03:48:46Z2018-10-15T03:48:46ZPoll wrap: Labor slips in Newspoll, but gains in Ipsos, in Wentworth and in Victoria<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240534/original/file-20181015-109216-15fcktg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Coalition has clawed back some support since the early days after Malcolm Turnbull was ousted as prime minister.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0ca1d59f2b25ea7d9498bcb9f7e4c1bb?width=650">Newspoll</a>, conducted October 11-14 from a sample of 1,707, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 37% Coalition (up one), 11% Greens (up one) and 6% One Nation (steady).</p>
<p>In contrast to Newspoll, Labor’s lead increased to a 55-45 margin in a Fairfax <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/voters-reject-proposed-changes-federal-anti-discrimination-laws-recommended-review-religious?platform=hootsuite">Ipsos</a> poll, a two-point gain for Labor since four weeks ago. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one), 35% Labor (up four), 15% Greens (steady) and 5% One Nation (down two). This poll was taken October 10-13 from a sample of 1,200.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-trails-47-53-in-newspoll-as-ipsos-finds-74-oppose-law-discriminating-against-gay-students-and-teachers-104906">Coalition trails 47-53% in Newspoll, as Ipsos finds 74% oppose law discriminating against gay students and teachers</a>
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<p>When Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull in late August, Labor’s lead blew out to a 56-44 margin in Newspoll, and the Coalition has since clawed back support. However, these two polls indicate the Coalition’s gains have stalled. Analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1051423513691676672">Kevin Bonham’s aggregate</a> is at 53.9% two party to Labor by last election preferences, a 0.6% gain for Labor since last week.</p>
<p>As usual, the Greens vote in Ipsos is too high, but Newspoll also indicates that the Greens have gained; this is their <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll">highest Newspoll</a> vote since August 2017. The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-09/environment-minister-says-calls-to-end-coal-drawing-long-bow/10354604">Coalition’s dismissal</a> of the IPCC report is a plausible reason for Green gains.</p>
<p>Respondent allocated preferences in Ipsos were 55-45 to Labor, the same as the previous election preference method. Under Turnbull, respondent preferences skewed to the Coalition, but the two Ipsos polls under Morrison have had identical respondent and previous election results. A stronger flow of Greens and Others to Labor could be compensating for One Nation’s flows to the Coalition.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-lead-shrinks-in-federal-ipsos-but-grows-in-victorian-galaxy-trumps-ratings-slip-103320">Poll wrap: Labor's lead shrinks in federal Ipsos, but grows in Victorian Galaxy; Trump's ratings slip</a>
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<p>In Newspoll, 45% were satisfied with Morrison (up one), and 38% were dissatisfied (down one), for a net approval of +7. Bill Shorten’s net approval was up six points to -16. Morrison led Shorten by 45-34 as better PM (45-32 three weeks ago).</p>
<p>Morrison’s first three Newspoll net approval ratings have been +2, +5 and +7. Turnbull’s first three Newspoll net approval ratings after deposing Tony Abbott were +18, +25 and +35. While Morrison’s current ratings are much better than Turnbull before he was deposed, they are far worse than Turnbull in his honeymoon period.</p>
<p>Despite the stronger voting intentions for Labor in Ipsos, 50% approved of Morrison (up four) and 33% disapproved (down three), for a net approval of +17, up seven points. Shorten’s net approval dropped four points to -8. Morrison led Shorten by 48-35 as better PM (47-37 four weeks ago).</p>
<p>By a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-huge-majority-of-australians-oppose-laws-banning-gay-students-and-teachers-20181014-p509kv.html?platform=hootsuite">massive 74-21</a>, voters in Ipsos opposed allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay teachers and students. <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1051409319458037760">Bonham cautions</a> that, as a live phone pollster, Ipsos is prone to social desirability bias, so the real margin for this question is probably closer.</p>
<p>By 64-29, Ipsos voters were dissatisfied with the Coalition on immigration. 45% thought immigration should be reduced, 23% increased, and 29% thought immigration should remain as is.</p>
<p>By 50-32, voters in <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b8917ec92fd91142470cb2ad3f7f91c3?width=650">Newspoll</a> thought Morrison more capable of handling the economy than Shorten (48-31 to Turnbull in May). Morrison also led on cost-of-living 44-43 (43-41 to Shorten over Turnbull in December 2017) and on delivering tax cuts 45-33 (40-33 to Turnbull in December). The economy and tax cuts tend to favour conservatives. </p>
<p>In February 2016, five months after deposing Abbott, Turnbull led Shorten by 58-22 on the economy and 42-33 on cost-of-living.</p>
<p>All of the polls below were taken before the events of last week.</p>
<h2>Essential: 53-47 to Labor</h2>
<p>Last week’s <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Essential-Report-091018.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted October 4-7 from a sample of 1,025, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged on three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 37% Labor (up one), 10% Greens (down two) and 7% One Nation (up two).</p>
<p>43% approved of Morrison (up six since September) and 28% disapproved (down three), for a net approval of +15. Shorten’s net approval fell four points to -12. Morrison led Shorten by 42-27 as better PM (39-27 in September).</p>
<p>57-62% had at least some trust in ABC and SBS TV and radio news and current affairs. Other news sources had between 35% and 48% trust, with Internet blogs at the bottom with just 17% trust. There was little change in trust since October 2017.</p>
<p>36% thought the government had too much influence over the ABC, 16% too little and 17% about the right amount. By 40-34, voters thought news reporting and comment on the ABC was unbiased, with Labor and Greens voters more likely to say the ABC was unbiased.</p>
<p>By 43-35, voters opposed keeping all asylum seekers on Nauru indefinitely. By 42-37, they opposed closing the detention centres and transferring all remaining asylum seekers to Australia. By a narrow 40-39, voters supported transferring families and children from Nauru to Australia.</p>
<h2>Wentworth ReachTEL poll tied 50-50 Liberal vs Labor</h2>
<p>The Wentworth byelection will be held on October 20. A ReachTEL poll for the Refugee Council of Australia, conducted in the first week of October from a sample of 870, had the Liberals’ Dave Sharma and Labor’s Tim Murray tied at 50-50, a one-point gain for Murray since a September 27 ReachTEL poll for independent Licia Heath’s campaign.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/07/supplementary-sunday-smorgasbord/">The Poll Bludger</a>, primary votes, including a forced choice question for initially undecided voters, were 39.9% Sharma (down 3.1%), 25.0% Murray (up 4.3%), 17.3% for independent Kerryn Phelps (down 0.6%), 9.1% Greens (up 2.5%) and 3.6% Heath (down 6.4%). It is likely the Heath campaign poll exaggerated her support.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-phelps-slumps-to-third-in-wentworth-trumps-ratings-up-after-fight-over-kavanaugh-104478">Poll wrap: Phelps slumps to third in Wentworth; Trump's ratings up after fight over Kavanaugh</a>
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<p>This poll also gave a Sharma vs Phelps two candidate estimate, which had Phelps beating Sharma 53-47. However, on the primary vote figures, it is likely Phelps will be eliminated and her preferences distributed between Sharma and Murray. Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals ahead of Labor, doing an about-face on her previous position of putting the Liberals last, appears to have damaged her.</p>
<p>Seat polls are unreliable, so the 50-50 Sharma vs Murray estimate could reasonably be out by up to five points in either direction. The respondent preference flows implied by this poll (about two-thirds of all Other preferences to Labor) are more reasonable than in the previous poll (three-quarters of Other preferences to Labor).</p>
<p>It is disappointing there have been no properly conducted polls of Wentworth since early October, and no media-commmissioned polls at all. Bonham has big issues with a <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/09/wentworth-by-election-prospects-and_14.html">Voter Choice poll</a> that has both Phelps and Murray defeating Sharma by about 55-45 after preferences, due to that poll’s opt-in nature and weighting adjustments. A Liberal internal poll reportedly shows Sharma is just behind Phelps, who is likely to finish ahead of Murray.</p>
<h2>Victorian ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor</h2>
<p>The Victorian election will be held on November 24. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/reachtel-poll-andrews-edges-clear-of-guy-as-state-election-draws-near-20181007-p5089r.html">ReachTEL poll</a> for The Age, conducted October 3 from a sample of 1,240, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since July. <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1048876565617029120">Primary votes</a> were 39.4% Coalition (down 1.4%), 37.6% Labor (up 0.9%), 10.9% Greens (steady) and 4.0% Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.</p>
<p>One Nation had 3.7% in the July poll, but they will not <a href="https://www.google.com.au/search?q=one+nation+victorian+election&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjk4L7CiPbdAhVR7WEKHcqtA-AQ_AUIDigB&biw=1920&bih=1001">contest the election</a>. The Shooters have benefited from One Nation’s absence.</p>
<p>Premier Daniel Andrews led Opposition Leader Matthew Guy by a 51.3-48.7 margin as better Premier, a 0.7% gain for Andrews since July. ReachTEL’s forced choice better PM/Premier questions are usually better for opposition leaders than other polls.</p>
<p>In other forced choice questions, Labor led the Coalition by 54.0-46.0 on dealing with Melbourne’s congestion (Coalition ahead by 50.8-49.2 in July). Labor led by 52.9-47.1 on cost-of-living (50.2-49.8 in July). The Coalition led by 53.9-46.1 on law and order (55.8-44.2 in July) and by 50.4-49.6 on managing growing population (51.6-48.4 in July).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-reachtel-poll-51-49-to-labor-and-time-running-out-for-upper-house-reform-99595">Victorian ReachTEL poll: 51-49 to Labor, and time running out for upper house reform</a>
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<p>All these issues surveyed have moved towards Labor since July, with a large movement on Melbourne’s congestion. Issue questions usually move in the same direction as voting intentions.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-lead-shrinks-in-federal-ipsos-but-grows-in-victorian-galaxy-trumps-ratings-slip-103320">Galaxy poll</a> in September for the bus industry gave Labor a 53-47 lead. State political parties tend to do better when the opposite party is in power federally. Labor is clearly ahead now, and is likely to win the Victorian election.</p>
<h2>In brief: US midterm elections and far-right likely to win Brazil presidential election</h2>
<p>I had an article for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/14/us-mid-terms-minus-twenty-five-days/">The Poll Bludger</a> on the November 6 US midterm elections published Sunday. Since the fight over judge Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the US Supreme Court, Republicans have gained ground in the Senate, but Democrats have gained in the House. A split decision, where the Democrats win the House, but Republicans keep the Senate, is the most likely outcome.</p>
<p>I also previewed the Brazilian presidential election on my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/wentworth-reachtel-poll-and-left-vs-far-right-contest-in-brazil/">personal website</a>. At the October 7 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_general_election,_2018#Results">first round election</a>, the far-right candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, won 46.0% of the vote, while the left-wing Workers’ Party candidate, Fernando Haddad, had 29.3%. Another left-wing candidate won 12.5%, and a centre-right candidate won 4.8%. </p>
<p>As Bolsonaro did not win over 50% in the first round, a runoff will be held on October 28 between Bolsonaro and Haddad. The three <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Brazilian_general_election,_2018#Second_round">runoff polls</a> taken so far give Bolsonaro a seven to fifteen point lead over Haddad. Bolsonaro has made <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro#Views_on_the_Brazilian_military_dictatorship">comments sympathetic</a> to the 1964-85 Brazilian military dictatorship.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104562/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest polls are a mixed bag for the Morrison government: there were gains in primary and two-party preferred vote, but the polls still have Labor in an election-winning position.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1033202018-09-17T05:26:19Z2018-09-17T05:26:19ZPoll wrap: Labor’s lead shrinks in federal Ipsos, but grows in Victorian Galaxy; Trump’s ratings slip<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236589/original/file-20180917-96155-11ix7h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The latest Fairfax Ipsos poll gives Labor a 53-47 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since mid-August.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s federal <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/steady-performance-morrison-fairfax-ipsos-poll?platform=hootsuite">Ipsos poll</a> for the Fairfax papers, conducted September 12-15 from a sample of 1,200, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since mid-August. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (down four), 15% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady) and 13% for all Others (up two). The respondent allocated preference figure was also 53-47 to Labor.</p>
<p>Newspoll and Essential last week respectively gave Labor 42% and 37% of the primary vote, with the Greens at 10% in both polls. At the 2016 election, Ipsos consistently had the Greens higher than other polls, and the election results were in line with the other polls, not Ipsos.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-house-results-and-a-polling-critique-62974">Final House results and a polling critique</a>
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<p>Ipsos is the only Australian pollster that still uses live phone interviews (mobile and landline) for its polls. All other pollsters now use either robopolling, online methods, or a combination of the two. However, live phone polling cannot be the only explanation for the high Greens vote, as Newspoll and Ipsos’ predecessor in Fairfax, Nielsen, once used live phone polling without a persistently high Greens’ vote.</p>
<p>While Ipsos’ primary votes are weird, the two party vote is more volatile than other pollsters, but it usually tracks other polling well. There may have been a decline for Labor because voters are no longer focused on the chaotic events leading to Malcolm Turnbull’s ousting as PM.</p>
<p>The last Ipsos poll (55-45 to Labor) was released on August 20, and four days later, Turnbull was gone. While this poll was not the reason for Turnbull’s downfall, it may have been the “straw that broke the camel’s back”. Two <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-hard-right-terminated-turnbull-only-to-see-scott-morrison-become-pm-102036">ReachTEL polls</a> taken in the week of Turnbull’s ousting gave Labor a 51-49 and a 53-47 lead, so the 55-45 Ipsos lead was probably an outlier.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-coalition-slumps-to-55-45-deficit-in-ipsos-and-large-swing-to-federal-labor-in-queensland-101804">Poll wrap: Coalition slumps to 55-45 deficit in Ipsos, and large swing to federal Labor in Queensland</a>
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<p>Scott Morrison debuted in Ipsos with a 46% approve, 36% disapprove rating, for a net approval of +10. The August Ipsos gave Turnbull a net -2 approval, but the July poll gave him a net +17 approval. Shorten’s net approval rose seven points to -4. Morrison led Shorten by 47-37 as better PM (48-36 to Turnbull in August).</p>
<h2>Wentworth candidate poll</h2>
<p>We now know that Dave Sharma is the Liberal candidate for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-wentworth-preselectors-rebuff-to-morrison-caps-week-of-mayhem-103216">October 20 Wentworth byelection</a>, and that former AMA President Kerryn Phelps will stand as an independent. A ReachTEL poll conducted August 27 correctly listed Sharma as the Liberal candidate, and asked for two prominent independents, Phelps and Alex Greenwich; Greenwich is not running.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-retains-big-newspoll-lead-savage-anti-liberal-swing-in-wagga-wagga-wentworth-is-tied-102771">Poll wrap: Labor retains big Newspoll lead; savage anti-Liberal swing in Wagga Wagga; Wentworth is tied</a>
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<p>The results in this ReachTEL poll were 34.6% for the Liberals’ Sharma, 20.3% for Labor’s Tim Murray, 11.8% for Phelps, 11.2% for Greenwich, 8.9% Greens and 13.3% for all Others.</p>
<p>This poll was taken on the Monday after Turnbull was ousted, and the Coalition’s polling could improve by the byelection date. Sharma could also lift his profile before the byelection.</p>
<h2>Victorian Galaxy poll: 53-47 to Labor</h2>
<p>The Victorian election will be held on November 24. A <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnQhOfYV4AAi-4j.jpg">state Galaxy poll</a> for the bus industry gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since an early August Galaxy for The Herald Sun. No fieldwork dates, sample size or primary votes have been released yet.</p>
<p>Going back to April, there have been three successive Victorian polls with Labor just ahead by 51-49 from Newspoll, ReachTEL and Galaxy. It is likely Labor’s larger lead in this poll was due to a backlash over the dumping of Turnbull. On my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/reachtel-50-50-tie-in-wentworth-and-where-morrison-could-have-problems/">personal website</a>, an analysis suggested that the Coalition under Morrison was vulnerable among the well-educated, the young and in Victoria.</p>
<p>40% approved of Premier Daniel Andrews and 42% disapproved for a net approval of -2. Just 25% approved of Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and 44% disapproved for a net approval of -19.</p>
<p>In July I wrote that, unless legislation to abolish the group voting ticket system for the Victorian upper house passed both chambers by September 20, group voting would be used at the state election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-reachtel-poll-51-49-to-labor-and-time-running-out-for-upper-house-reform-99595">Victorian ReachTEL poll: 51-49 to Labor, and time running out for upper house reform</a>
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<p>With just three days until the final sitting date of parliament before the election, there is no proposal for upper house reform. It is very disappointing that a left-of-centre government has not even attempted to improve the upper house voting system.</p>
<h2>Wagga Wagga final result: independent McGirr defeats Liberals 59.6-40.4</h2>
<p>As I reported <a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-retains-big-newspoll-lead-savage-anti-liberal-swing-in-wagga-wagga-wentworth-is-tied-102771">last week</a>, a byelection in the NSW state seat of Wagga Wagga was held on September 8. The Liberals held Wagga Wagga continuously since 1957.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wagga-wagga-by-election-2018/results/">Primary votes</a> were 25.5% Liberal (down 28.3% since the 2015 election), 25.4% for independent Joe McGirr, 23.7% Labor (down 4.4%), 10.6% for independent Paul Funnell (up 0.9%) and 9.9% Shooters. After preferences, McGirr defeated the Liberals by 59.6-40.4, a 22.5% swing against the Liberals. 47% of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wagga-wagga-by-election-2018/commentary/">preferences from the other candidates</a> flowed to McGirr, 15% to the Liberals and the rest exhausted under NSW’s optional preferential voting.</p>
<h2>Trump’s approval rating falls from 42% to 40% since late August</h2>
<p>In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=midterms-header">FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate</a>, Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen from about 42% in late August to 40% now. Trump’s ratings are their lowest since February.</p>
<p>I wrote a detailed analysis on the November 6 US midterm elections for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/15/us-mid-term-elections-minus-seven-half-weeks/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday. Trump’s ratings are highly correlated with Republican performance in the race for Congress, so worse ratings for Trump will result in larger Democratic leads in the race for Congress.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103320/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fairfax Ipsos gives Labor another win on two-party preferred, albeit with weird primary vote numbers, while the Labor party in Victoria has another poll win just over two months ahead of the state election.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1022492018-08-29T05:16:53Z2018-08-29T05:16:53ZOur new PM wants to ‘bust congestion’ – here are four ways he could do that<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234000/original/file-20180829-86135-15mu49t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Building more roads will not help reduce congestion.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Road <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2015/is_074.aspx">congestion is costing Australia</a> more than an avoidable A$16 billion every year. This is set to almost double to A$30 billion by 2030. That’s why we have a new minister for cities and urban infrastructure, Alan Tudge, who says he’s looking forward to “congestion busting”.</p>
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<p>It’s also why state election campaigns repeatedly focus on reducing congestion. The Victorian Labor government’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-28/melbourne-suburban-train-loop-promised-by-labor/10172184">recent announcement</a> of a plan to build “the biggest public transport project in Australian history” is a good example. </p>
<p>The proposed A$50 billion underground rail link will allow commuters to travel between suburbs without having to go into the city. And transport minister Jacinta Allan said it will take 200,000 cars off major roads.</p>
<p>While the project’s 2050 timeline is disappointing, this is a step in the right direction. If federal, state and local governments are <a href="https://theconversation.com/spills-and-city-deals-what-turnbulls-urban-policy-has-achieved-and-where-we-go-from-here-102184">serious about congestion</a>, the discussion must continue to move beyond our obsession with more roads. </p>
<p>Building more roads is not a long-term solution to solving congestion. Most new roads, and the temporary de-congestion they may bring, simply lure more people into their cars. Eventually congestion increases, except now with more cars on the road, further exacerbating the original problem.</p>
<p>Here are four alternative measures to “bust” congestion and improve our overall quality of life.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/traffic-congestion-is-there-a-miracle-cure-hint-its-not-roads-42753">Traffic congestion: is there a miracle cure? (Hint: it's not roads)</a>
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<h2>1. Invest in mass, rapid, zero-emissions public transport</h2>
<p>This type of transport includes <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/project/Projects/index.cfm?fuseaction=search.dspPage&n_proj_id=4871">electric bus rapid transit</a>, where buses have dedicated roads and priority at intersections, and <a href="https://www.boringcompany.com/chicago/">high-speed, electric underground systems</a>, such as where passengers are transported in autonomous so-called “electric skates” that travel at over 200km/h.</p>
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<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/259707751" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">These high-speed, underground electric skates are an example of the kind of public transport governments should be investing in.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Australia has been sorely lacking investment in mass, rapid public transport over recent decades. But this is slowly changing with the announcements of future projects, including: <a href="https://www.sydneymetro.info/">Sydney Metro</a>, <a href="https://metrotunnel.vic.gov.au/">Melbourne Metro</a>, <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-transport/public-transport/brisbane-metro">Brisbane Metro</a>, the recent <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-28/melbourne-suburban-train-loop-promised-by-labor/10172184">Melbourne Suburban Rail Loop</a>, and <a href="https://www.crossriverrail.qld.gov.au/">Brisbane Cross River Rail</a></p>
<p>But much more effort is needed to ensure these projects are implemented quickly and expanded beyond inner-city suburbs. Peak-hour bus lanes should be introduced to provide congestion-free bus rapid transit routes to and from metro stations. </p>
<p>And these new projects must move towards zero-emission vehicles to reduce the 1,700 premature deaths <a href="https://energy.unimelb.edu.au/news-and-events/news/vehicle-emissions-cause-40-more-deaths-than-road-toll">caused every year</a> in Australia due to vehicle pollution - 40% more than in motor vehicle accidents.</p>
<h2>2. Enable public transport subscriptions</h2>
<p>The difference between public and private transport pricing in Australia is perverse. Those who own a car mainly pay a fixed upfront fee every year, no matter when or where they travel. </p>
<p>Ironically, the exact opposite is true for public transport users who are often charged more to travel during peak-hour traffic (see fares in <a href="https://translink.com.au/tickets-and-fares/fares-and-zones/current-fares">Queensland</a>, <a href="https://transportnsw.info/tickets-opal/opal/fares-payments/adult-fares">New South Wales</a>, and <a href="https://www.adelaidemetro.com.au/Tickets-fares/Fares">South Australia</a>), and have to pay for each individual trip, at a higher cost, the further they travel. This pricing structure effectively penalises commuters.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-many-people-make-a-good-city-its-not-the-size-that-matters-but-how-you-use-it-101102">How many people make a good city? It's not the size that matters, but how you use it</a>
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<p>Enabling monthly and annual public transport tickets, with unlimited trips, would encourage commuters to use public transport more often, to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-6435.1999.tb01443.x">get the best bang for their buck from their subscription ticket</a>.</p>
<p>Governments should also support integrating other transport services into these subscription tickets, including taxis, bike-sharing and even car hire. Such schemes have already been introduced overseas, including in the <a href="https://whimapp.com/uk/">UK</a> and <a href="https://nordic.businessinsider.com/this-finnish-startup-aims-to-seize-a-trillion-dollar-market-with-netflix-of-transportation--and-toyota-just-bought-into-it-with-10-million-2017-7/">Finland</a>, given their potential to reduce car ownership and <a href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/shared-mobility-simulations-helsinki.pdf">congestion</a> under the right <a href="https://imovecrc.com/news-articles/intelligent-transport-systems/governance-framework-smart-mobility-congestion/">policy settings</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Invest more in active transport</h2>
<p>Investment in dedicated active transport infrastructure, such as separated lanes, is paramount for encouraging active transport. It will also ensure the safety of pedestrians and cyclists, while minimising motor vehicle conflicts.</p>
<p>Additionally, the arrival of electric bikes, scooters, and skateboards, has opened up other modes of transport as a viable option for more Australians. These devices are particularly important for addressing the <a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784413210.007">“first and last mile transport problem”</a>, where commuters do not use public transport because stations are too far to walk to and/or from.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234017/original/file-20180829-86123-6og19u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234017/original/file-20180829-86123-6og19u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234017/original/file-20180829-86123-6og19u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234017/original/file-20180829-86123-6og19u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234017/original/file-20180829-86123-6og19u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234017/original/file-20180829-86123-6og19u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234017/original/file-20180829-86123-6og19u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/234017/original/file-20180829-86123-6og19u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Forms of active transport, such as electric scooters (these are in Washington DC), are becoming a viable alternative in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While there are challenges with <a href="http://acrs.org.au/files/papers/arsc/2015/DowlingR%20071%20Use%20of%20personal%20mobility%20devices%20for%20first%20and%20last%20mile%20travel.pdf">regulating some of these devices</a>, and ensuring they are safe to use, it is important governments invest in infrastructure - such as electric bike charging at public transport stations - to support their use in addressing the first and last mile problem.</p>
<h2>4. Introduce dynamic road pricing</h2>
<p>Finally, while public and active transport is crucial for reducing congestion, infrastructure to support these services comes at a cost. Most road taxes, such as annual registration fees, do not accurately reflect how and when car owners drive.</p>
<p>Is it fair for a pensioner who drives to the shops a couple of times a week, outside peak-hour, to pay the same fees as someone who drives to and from the city, every day, during peak-hour traffic? We need to progressively introduce cost-reflective road pricing, which is not simply focused on how far car owners drive, but on when, where and what they drive.</p>
<p>Road pricing should be used to disincentivise peak-hour, urban commuting to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X11001284">minimise congestion</a>, while raising revenue to fund both public and active transport alternatives, as well as <a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/41488/">reduce tolls on roads that bypass city centres</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/city-wide-trial-shows-how-road-use-charges-can-reduce-traffic-jams-86324">City-wide trial shows how road use charges can reduce traffic jams</a>
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<p>One pathway forward could be a voluntary (low-fee) road pricing scheme for electric vehicle owners. This would be in exchange for waiving existing road taxes, such as registration, stamp duty, import duty and fuel excise. Such a scheme could initially act as an incentive to <a href="https://publications.qld.gov.au/dataset/the-future-is-electric-queensland-s-electric-vehicle-strategy/resource/7e352dc9-9afa-47ed-acce-2052cecfec8a">encourage the uptake</a> of this technology. </p>
<p>As electric vehicles become more affordable, the pricing scheme could be increased and expanded to the entire vehicle fleet, reducing <a href="https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/">emissions</a> and <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/transport/projects/electricvehicles/about/compare">travel costs</a>, at the same time as minimising congestion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Jake Whitehead is a Research Fellow at The University of Queensland's School of Civil Engineering, and is the Director of Transmobility Consulting. He has received funding in the past to conduct research on congestion and road pricing schemes.</span></em></p>Busting congestion requires some creativity - and evidence-based methods. Here are four of these.Jake Whitehead, Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1012462018-08-28T20:20:54Z2018-08-28T20:20:54ZWe hardly ever trust big transport announcements – here’s how politicians get it right<p>Australian governments regularly spend billions of dollars cancelling infrastructure projects, or dealing with delays and legal challenges. The NSW Berejiklian government, for instance, is mired in legal battles around Sydney’s light rail project – with the Spanish company building the rail line <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/spanish-builder-claims-state-failed-to-reveal-full-facts-on-light-rail-20180413-p4z9et.html?clicksource=inartcilelink">suing the government</a> for A$1.2 billion for costs and damages.</p>
<p>Other examples include the cancellations of the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-28/opposition-reveals-new-plans-for-controversial-east-west-link/9918306">A$1.1 billion</a> East-West link in Melbourne and Perth’s <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/state-overturns-approvals-quashes-rumours-of-roe-8-by-stealth-20180606-p4zjtc.html">A$450 million Roe 8</a> project. </p>
<p>Research shows transport infrastructure is costly because of its size, complexity, and the <a href="https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1409/1409.0003.pdf">misrepresentation of project benefits</a>, resulting in cost overruns. But transport projects are also costly because they are controversial. Governments and project proponents can spend significant amounts of money to manage the risk of project cancellation, delays and legal challenges.</p>
<h2>Why the constant controversy?</h2>
<p>Transport will be a key policy battleground area in the upcoming Victorian election. Just this week, the Andrews’ government announced a A$50 billion <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-government-announces-massive-suburban-rail-loop-for-melbourne-20180828-p5005r.html">underground suburban rail loop</a>, which will link every major rail line in Melbourne and the new airport rail. </p>
<p>The announcement is politically motivated rather than being grounded in a publicly engaged strategic planning process attached to a clear evidence-base.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/east-west-link-shows-miserable-failure-of-planning-process-40232">East-West Link shows miserable failure of planning process</a>
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<p>Victoria is not alone in such political infrastructure planning. The NSW government is currently embarking on the largest transport infrastructure project in the country’s history, with the 33km <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/about">WestConnex</a>. The project continues to attract opposition from some parts of the community and from the <a href="http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/vision/changing-urban-precincts/westconnex">City of Sydney</a>. </p>
<p>WestConnex is also currently subject to a <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-details.aspx?pk=2497#tab-timeline">parliamentary inquiry</a> into its impacts, including the adequacy of the business case for the project and the <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/inquiries/2497/Terms%20of%20reference%20-%20WestConnex%20inquiry.pdf">compulsory acquisition of property</a>. The inquiry comes following pressure from community groups and <a href="https://www.mehreenfaruqi.org.au/greens-secure-westconnex-inquiry/">some members of the state’s Greens</a>.</p>
<p>Large-scale transport infrastructure will always attract attention because it involves the distribution of a finite resource in complex regions pressed with significant infrastructure needs. But we need to consider why transport infrastructure is almost always so controversial, and how politicians can ensure they have the public’s trust when making announcements for all transport projects. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-drivers-are-likely-to-use-westconnex-than-predicted-38286">Why fewer drivers are likely to use WestConnex than predicted</a>
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<h2>1. History</h2>
<p>Australia has a history of anti-road activism that centred on the notion <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/books/general-books/current-affairs-politics/Car-wars-Graeme-Davison-9781741142075">cities are for people</a> not cars, as large motorways <a href="http://www.umass.edu/umpress/title/street-fight">divide communities</a> and promote car dependency. In the 1960s and 70s, large urban motorways were set to pave over suburbs as part of a wider urban regeneration agenda, which set the anti-road agenda in motion.</p>
<p>When the East-West Link was proposed again in 2012, many of the same activists from the 1970s returned to the scene. One such activist, Tony Murphy, would lead a high-profile <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/east-west-link-details-may-come-out-in-court-20140519-38k82.html">legal challenge</a> to the project in 2014.</p>
<p>Inner-city motorways - such as the East West Link and Stage 3 of the WestConnex project – are underpinned by this historic opposition. And it’s strengthened by the privatisation of roads and the introduction of toll roads. Under these conditions concerns will continue to be put forward about who actually gains to benefit from such projects – private companies, the government or the people?</p>
<h2>2. Infrastructural symbolism</h2>
<p>Inner-city motorways crystallise competing visions for the Australian city. Should we be investing in roads or rail, or both? How do we prioritise delivery? Where should we be investing? How will we pay for these investments? And do the benefits - and we need to be clear about how we <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">define these</a> - outweigh the costs of construction, the loss of natural assets and urban displacement?</p>
<p>The act of investing in one form of infrastructure over another becomes a symbol of what we value. Road based infrastructure planning is controversial because it’s often seen to value cars over non-road based alternatives.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">We often see roads as controversial as they become a symbol of our value of cars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
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<p>The East-West Link, West Gate Tunnel, North East Link and WestConnex projects are symbols of past poor investment in integrated land use and transport planning. They are also a symbol of little clarity and coherency about what it is we are aspiring to, and how these expensive projects will help us get there.</p>
<h2>3. Trust in evidence</h2>
<p>There are concerns projects are being <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/events/the-right-infrastructure-at-the-right-price/">announced</a> before they are properly costed. And this has been further complicated by the introduction of public and private partnerships and more recently the use of <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/infrastructure-investment/market-led-proposals">market-led proposal schemes</a> (where a private firm makes an infrastructure proposal to goverment), which calls into question the role evidence and the business case plays in decisions about transport infrastructure. </p>
<p>These concerns are only exacerbated when public access to this data is difficult to obtain. And they will only intensify unless bodies such as the <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/infrastructure/roads/transurban-to-release-more-tollroad-data-to-try-and-win-over-accc-on-westconnex-20180809-h13qbz">ACCC demand</a> data accessibility, including from tolling operators and sharing platforms.</p>
<p>In Toronto, project business cases are written before investment announcements are made. The <a href="http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/projectevaluation/benefitscases/benefits_case_analyses.aspx">business cases</a> are then used in wider discussions about what kinds of infrastructures the region should invest in. While every city and region has its challenges, the controversy in Australian cities has become as much about the role of evidence, including its accessibility and transparency, as it is about the contents of those documents. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">A closer look at business cases raises questions about 'priority' national infrastructure projects</a>
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<h2>What politicians should do</h2>
<p>As Australian cities continue to embark on ambitious infrastructure programs - both roads and public transport - governments must pause to ask themselves who these projects are really being built for. To abate future controversy, governments must:</p>
<ul>
<li>develop plans for public debate and engagement, which will help provide a strategic case for projects when they are announced</li>
<li>deliver business cases before projects are announced, not after. This must include a clear evidence-base for land use, affordable housing, employment and integrated transport</li>
<li>plan transport with a regional outlook, but also be mindful of stories and histories of the places and neighbourhoods that might be affected.</li>
</ul>
<p>Ultimately, residents must be engaged in discussions about urban scenarios and project alternatives. Infrastructure Australia <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/news-media/media-releases/2018/2018_07_24.aspx">recently released</a> a set of guidelines for big projects. These guidelines are important.</p>
<p>We can also look to Infrastructure Victoria. They included a citizen jury method in the development of their 30-year strategy, which perhaps can be expanded into a larger planning exercise that ties the visions with short-term solutions – such as better quality bus integration. These can then be linked with the more ambitions ideas such as a suburban rail loop as announced this week.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/city-calls-on-jury-of-its-citizens-to-deliberate-on-melbournes-future-59620">City calls on jury of its citizens to deliberate on Melbourne's future</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has received funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>We need to consider why transport infrastructure is so controversial, and how politicians can ensure they have the public’s trust when making announcements for all transport projects.Crystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.