tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/yellowstone-14412/articlesYellowstone – The Conversation2023-05-31T12:38:25Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064792023-05-31T12:38:25Z2023-05-31T12:38:25ZHow the sounds of ‘Succession’ shred the grandeur and respect the characters so desperately try to project<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528918/original/file-20230529-25-6xjh0a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=376%2C0%2C913%2C669&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While the Roy siblings are shielded by their wealth, the show's music chips away at their armor.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/05/21/arts/21succession/21succession-superJumbo.jpg">Macall Polay/HBO</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>HBO’s “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7660850/">Succession</a>” delivered its grand finale on May 28, 2023 – the climax of four award-packed seasons of searing put-downs, nihilistic humor and desperate power plays. </p>
<p>The show tells the story of ailing media tycoon Logan Roy and his four horrid children who aim to inherit his empire. I loved it because it rendered despicable people in power as human – funny, pathetic, capable of deep feeling – without once trying to redeem them.</p>
<p><a href="https://music.berkeley.edu/people/delia-casadei/">But as a music historian</a>, I will miss the series’ use of music and sound the most. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/arts/television/succession-soundtrack-classical-music.html">As many critics have noticed</a>, one of the series’ best elements is its soundtrack, which is as complex and propulsive as the drama it accompanies.</p>
<p>To me, the show’s clever sound design, combined with composer <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1615109/">Nicholas Britell’s</a> gleefully dark score, reflects a level of emotional sophistication that is unrivaled on television. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="93" data-image="" data-title="The theme song for 'Succession,' composed by Nicholas Britell" data-size="1488813" data-source="YouTube/HBO" data-source-url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77PsqaWzwG0" data-license="" data-license-url="">
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The theme song for ‘Succession,’ composed by Nicholas Britell.
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<h2>Corrupting classical music</h2>
<p>Most contemporary political dramas are about corruption, and music is great at progressively turning something seemingly wholesome into something sour. </p>
<p>Traditionally, this is done by adding <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/markdevoto/files/2015/10/Chromaticism.pdf">chromaticism</a> – the black keys of the piano keyboard – into the chords and melody, which produces a sense of darkening and dissonance. But these days, anything sounding weird – an off-beat rhythm, an unexpected sound – can do the trick. It is the composer’s skill in layering the strangeness into the music that makes the difference. </p>
<p>Britell <a href="https://youtu.be/X0WzqanwlG0?t=216">has described</a> being inspired by European late-18th century music. And the theme of “Succession” does draw from a couple of unmemorable bars from Beethoven’s “<a href="https://youtu.be/SrcOcKYQX3c?t=139">Pathétique Sonata</a>,” slowed down and with a few changed notes. </p>
<p>However, I’d say the theme song’s soundworld is closer to the opening dance of Sergei Prokofiev’s 1935 ballet “<a href="https://youtu.be/u3r5I9RolCA?t=101">Romeo and Juliet</a>” or Sergei Rachmaninov’s <a href="https://youtu.be/L1D-EQNTZWI?t=15">famous 1892 piano prelude in C Sharp minor</a>: big romantic pieces that swing between bass notes and thick block chords like the batter of a church bell.</p>
<p>But Britell then adds details that work in outlandish tension with the romantic musical language he’s adopted.</p>
<p>For example, the piano that plays the theme song is audibly out of tune. That’s no accident. Meanwhile, the melody, which is in a high register, awkwardly tries, but ultimately fails, to squirm its way to a brighter key. Throughout the show, there are a lot of reality-show-style pans to the faces of characters saying things like “I am excited.” This is their music.</p>
<p>The rhythm is littered by small dissonant accents in the upper register of the piano that sound like a fun-house version of the “low battery” sound on a cellphone. The effect is alarming – and oddly befitting of the topic of a corrupt media conglomerate.</p>
<p>Lastly, Britell is a hip-hop beat maker and layers the theme song with a cheesy 1990s synthesizer beat. This adds bounce, and a smirk, to the romantic broodiness of the chords and melody. </p>
<p>In his very 21st-century way, Britell festoons earnest Romantic music with details that gleefully desecrate it, bringing viewers right into the psychological dynamics of the show’s protagonists: a hunger for power, accompanied by levels of self-loathing that vacillate between comedy and tragedy.</p>
<h2>Brood too much and the effect is lost</h2>
<p>For comparison, “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1856010/">House of Cards</a>,” which follows a crooked politician’s quest for the U.S. presidency, and “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4236770/">Yellowstone</a>,” which tells the story of a Montana landowning family’s mission to ward off developers, Indigenous leaders and environmental activists, also attempt to convey a grim mood and crookedness in their music. </p>
<p>Both shows have rightly garnered attention and praise. Yet they, unlike “Succession,” have, in my view, underwhelming scores.</p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="96" data-image="" data-title="The title theme for 'House of Cards,' composed by Jeff Beal." data-size="1537197" data-source="YouTube/Simon" data-source-url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9w-O60x1bYk" data-license="" data-license-url="">
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The title theme for ‘House of Cards,’ composed by Jeff Beal.
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<p>Their theme songs are symphonic, which befits the grandeur of the topic and obscene privilege of the characters; tunes are carried in the deeper, lower range, rather than the more customary bright, high register. Both theme songs make heavy use of the lower strings of violas, cellos and double basses, which further darken the sonic palette. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="62" data-image="" data-title="The title theme for 'Yellowstone,' composed by Brian Tyler." data-size="996970" data-source="YouTube/EndtheProject" data-source-url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WOgBtFnZmY" data-license="" data-license-url="">
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The title theme for ‘Yellowstone,’ composed by Brian Tyler.
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<p>The composers also make an effort to signal corruption through momentarily dissonant chords or notes. At the end of the opening credits of “House of Cards,” you can hear it <a href="https://youtu.be/9w-O60x1bYk?t=70">in the twang of the electric guitar</a>. And in “Yellowstone,” Tyler uses <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/markdevoto/files/2015/10/Chromaticism.pdf">chromaticism</a> to <a href="https://youtu.be/1WOgBtFnZmY?t=23">decorate the melody</a>. </p>
<p>These tricks, however, don’t quite land. </p>
<p>In order for the stain of corruption to stand out, musically and otherwise, it has to operate against a relatively clean background. The scores for both “House of Cards” and “Yellowstone” are already dark and twisty to begin with, which makes the “staining” effect harder to pull off. </p>
<p>This is where Britell’s astute ways of combining brightness and darkness in “Succession’s” music make all the difference.</p>
<h2>Hearing what the characters hear</h2>
<p>The unusual sound design in “Succession” also unveiled the series’ psychological complexity.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nfi.edu/sound-design/">Sound design</a> indicates the ways in which all sounds, from noises to dialogue and music, are mixed into the soundtrack.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.vulture.com/article/succession-recap-series-premiere-season-1-episode-1-celebration.html">In the pilot episode</a>, viewers meet Kendall Roy, an eminently slappable finance bro and heir apparent to his father’s company. He’s being chauffeured to a business meeting, and he’s bouncing in the back seat to the Beastie Boys’ “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny6hwUOFvlw">An Open Letter to New York</a>.” </p>
<p>It’s utterly cringeworthy: a wealthy white dude using hip-hop as emotional fluffing. </p>
<p>The Beastie Boys, as Britell and the showrunners must know, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/popular-music/article/abs/beastie-boys-jews-in-whiteface/ECA1F2EFFF95A757B7F70A9A2B183921">have been criticized</a> for being white Jewish musicians parading as white working-class boys aping, in turn, Black hip-hop artists. At first the Beastie Boys blare out on the soundtrack; seconds later, their music disappears into Kendall’s headphones, and viewers hear his whiny voice rapping the lyrics. </p>
<p>Suddenly, we suspect he might hate himself more than we already do. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1327611127342231554"}"></div></p>
<p>Film scholar <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/15053054">Claudia Gorbman</a> first theorized the effect toyed with here by “Succession’s” award-winning sound designers, <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0003635/">Nicholas Renbeck</a> and <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0471397/">Andy Kris</a>.</p>
<p>Gorbman highlights the distinction between “diegetic music” – music playing in the background, say, at a party, or ambient sounds, like cutlery and crockery – that can be heard by the characters in the film, and “<a href="https://www.backstage.com/magazine/article/diegetic-vs-non-diegetic-sound-guide-75566/">non-diegetic music</a>,” which is music heard only by the film’s audience and not by the characters. </p>
<p>The balance between these two kinds of music and sounds creates the psychological setup for the story: Diegetic implies that the characters’ world is not quite the audience’s own. Non-diegetic, on the other hand, implies that the filmmakers are conveying the characters’ emotions to the audience, like when the music comes in as two romantic leads share a kiss. </p>
<p>The switch from non-diegetic to diegetic in Kendall’s entrance gives viewers a sense that they are spying on his fragile self-delusion. He is slippery, tweaky, unknown – even to himself.</p>
<h2>Haunted by water</h2>
<p>Britell’s music, and the show’s use of diegetic and non-diegetic sound, may be one of the reasons why, even four seasons in, that none of the show’s fans could confidently anticipate who would succeed the family’s patriarch.</p>
<p>The series that begins with Kendall fittingly ends with him, too, as he walks, in a daze, along the Hudson River. The non-diegetic theme song plays in the background one last time. Then, for a brief moment – before a hard cut to a black screen – the sound goes diegetic: Viewers hear, with Kendall, the sound of the river flowing.</p>
<p>It’s a shocking moment. The show’s sound designers <a href="https://www.asoundeffect.com/succession-sound/">deliberately avoided ambient noises</a> so as to show how the Roy siblings are too privileged and too busy scheming to notice their surroundings. </p>
<p>The moment Kendall hears the Hudson, everyone understands – first by ear, then by sight – that this story is over.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206479/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Delia Casadei does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Composer Nicholas Britell festoons earnest Romantic music with sounds that gleefully desecrate it, underscoring the show’s emotional core: a lust for power joined by immense self-loathing.Delia Casadei, Assistant Professor of Music, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2029262023-05-18T18:01:24Z2023-05-18T18:01:24ZWhen wolves move in, they push smaller carnivores closer to human development – with deadly consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523262/original/file-20230427-18-pbf516.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C229%2C4486%2C2748&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smaller predators steer clear of wolves, but that brings them closer to people – and the dangers humans pose.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/lia-a-gray-wolf-in-the-exhibit-pack-at-the-minnesota-zoo-news-photo/1408483523">Star Tribune via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Large carnivores like wolves are returning to areas they used to occupy, leading scientists to wonder whether they may once again fulfill important ecological roles. But wolves’ return to the landscape can affect other nearby animals in complex ways.</p>
<p>Our research, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf2472">published in the journal Science</a>, shows that an increase in predators can lead smaller carnivores, like coyotes and bobcats, to seek refuge near people – but humans then kill them at even higher rates than large predators do.</p>
<p>We are <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fHylch4AAAAJ&hl=en">wildlife ecologists</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=-nuhJUwAAAAJ&hl=en">who study</a> how predators shape ecosystems. Along with colleagues from the <a href="https://predatorpreyproject.weebly.com/">Washington Predator Prey Project</a> and the <a href="https://spokanetribe.com/">Spokane Tribe of Indians</a>, we are seeking to understand how recoveries of wolves and other predators are altering ecosystems in Washington state.</p>
<h2>Predators structure ecosystems</h2>
<p>Large carnivores play crucial roles in their ecosystems. As they prey on or push other animals to avoid the areas they frequently use, predators shape the way interconnected food webs work.</p>
<p>The iconic reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park in 1995 had cascading effects down the food chain. The elk population shrank, and those that remained avoided areas with wolves, termed a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/z01-094">landscape of fear</a>.” These changes in elk abundance and behavior allowed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2011.11.005">aspen and willow trees to recover</a> after decades of overconsumption by elk. </p>
<p>Wolves also <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/Z08-136">kill smaller predators like coyotes</a>, providing respite for the animals that coyotes eat. Research from Yellowstone suggests that landscapes with wolves may have more diverse vegetation and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/10-0169.1">more small animals like songbirds</a> than those without wolves.</p>
<p>But because humans are often intolerant of predators and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4249">kill them at high rates</a>, large predators tend to avoid areas that are frequented by people. In national parks where humans rarely kill wildlife, some prey species use areas popular with people, such as hiking trails and campgrounds, as refuges from predators. This is known as the “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2007.0415">human shield</a>” effect.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523266/original/file-20230427-681-vxiipt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An elk sits on the grass in front of a building at Yellowstone National Park. In the foreground, a sign reads 'danger do not approach elk'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523266/original/file-20230427-681-vxiipt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523266/original/file-20230427-681-vxiipt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523266/original/file-20230427-681-vxiipt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523266/original/file-20230427-681-vxiipt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523266/original/file-20230427-681-vxiipt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523266/original/file-20230427-681-vxiipt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523266/original/file-20230427-681-vxiipt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Elk – like these at Mammoth Hot Springs in Yellowstone National Park – and other prey species may use human-dominated landscapes as a way to avoid larger predators like wolves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/elk-grazing-in-public-areas-mammoth-hot-springs-royalty-free-image/154340430">Dennis Macdonald/Photographer's Choice RF via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Predators in human-dominated landscapes</h2>
<p>Three decades after the Yellowstone release, wolves have continued to recolonize vast areas of the American West. In 2008, after an 80-year absence, wolves – some of which descended from the original Yellowstone population – <a href="https://wdfw.wa.gov/species-habitats/at-risk/species-recovery/gray-wolf/recovery">began to naturally recolonize Washington</a>. These wolves moved in from neighboring populations in Idaho and British Columbia.</p>
<p>But unlike Yellowstone, many of the landscapes wolves are now returning to are heavily modified by humans. This level of development raises the question: Do predators have the same influence on ecosystems where humans, rather than wolves, are the top dogs?</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Washington Predator Prey Project examines the ecological effects of wolf recovery in Washington state. <em>Video produced by Benjamin Drummond and Sarah Joy Steele.</em></span></figcaption>
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<p>To answer this question, we used GPS collars to track the movements of 22 wolves, 60 cougars, 35 coyotes and 37 bobcats as they navigated the landscapes of northern Washington, comprising a patchwork of public forests and land used for agriculture, ranching, logging and residential development.</p>
<p>Using hundreds of thousands of GPS locations, we constructed statistical models to reveal how coyotes and bobcats navigated a landscape where humans, wolves and cougars all posed concurrent threats. The GPS collars also notified us when coyotes and bobcats died, allowing us to investigate what caused their deaths.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How researchers from the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife attach GPS collars to wolves. <em>Video produced by Benjamin Drummond and Sarah Joy Steele.</em></span></figcaption>
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<h2>When ‘human shields’ are lethal</h2>
<p>We found that wolves and cougars avoided areas heavily influenced by humans, such as busy roads and residential areas. Coyotes strongly avoided wolves, which brought them closer to humans. In parts of the landscape with large predators around, both coyotes and bobcats moved to areas with approximately double the human influence, potentially using humans as shields.</p>
<p>When coyotes and bobcats sought refuge near people, they instead encountered a more lethal source of danger. We found that humans were the greatest cause of mortality, killing these smaller predators at more than three times the rate that large carnivores did. </p>
<p><iframe id="FBR1N" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FBR1N/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Our findings fit with earlier research that characterizes humans as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4249">super predators</a>.” People use modern technologies such as firearms and steel traps to kill small predators at far higher rates than other predators kill small predators. Unlike other predators, humans often target animals in prime condition. </p>
<p>But if people are so dangerous, why would coyotes and bobcats seek refuge near them? Other research shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/beheco/arab150">smaller predators do indeed fear humans</a>, so they likely still recognize that humans are dangerous. Instead, we think they might not <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.09051">correctly interpret the threats</a> posed by modern humans. </p>
<p>Most bobcats and coyotes in our study were either shot or trapped. These technologies allow people to kill animals either when absent or from large distances, possibly making it difficult for animals to accurately gauge risk.</p>
<p>Additionally, lenient hunting regulations for these small predators puts them at high risk. Under a Washington hunting license, for example, coyotes and bobcats can be <a href="https://www.eregulations.com/assets/docs/resources/WA/22WAWF_LR3.pdf">legally hunted and trapped</a> without limits – all year for coyotes and six months for bobcats.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The process of capturing and GPS-collaring a bobcat. After being sedated, it is common for animals to initially wake up groggy, but they soon return to normal.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Conservation in human-dominated landscapes</h2>
<p>While our findings may at first seem like bad news for conserving smaller predators, these results have important implications for maintaining balanced ecosystems, where no species is too abundant. Unbalanced ecosystems, like ones with too many small predators, can face devastating effects. In Australia, for example, overabundant cats and foxes have contributed to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1417301112">extinctions of about 30 small mammal species</a>.</p>
<p>Our results show that larger predators can constrain the behavior of smaller predators in human-dominated landscapes, which may help to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3783436">prevent overabundance</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biac069">Rewilding</a> ecosystems by using large predators to reestablish missing ecological processes may provide a way to maintain balanced ecosystems. As wolf populations continue to recover in large parts of the U.S. and Europe, our findings suggest that they are reestablishing important ecological processes by recreating these landscapes of fear that have long been missing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202926/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Calum Cunningham received funding from the Australian-American Fulbright Commission. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Prugh receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Reintroducing wolves can restore important ecological processes, but it can have unintended effects when smaller predators like coyotes are driven closer to people, a team of ecologists found.Calum Cunningham, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of WashingtonLaura Prugh, Associate Professor of Quantitative Wildlife Sciences, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1853642022-07-05T12:14:47Z2022-07-05T12:14:47ZClimate change is making flooding worse: 3 reasons the world is seeing more record-breaking deluges and flash floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471429/original/file-20220628-14613-2mjpl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C37%2C3134%2C2056&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fast-moving floodwater obliterated sections of major roads through Yellowstone National Park in 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/yellowstonenps/52167350392">Jacob W. Frank/National Park Service</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Heavy rain combined with melting snow can be a destructive combination. </p>
<p>In June 2022, storms dumped up to 5 inches of rain over three days in the mountains in and around Yellowstone National Park, rapidly melting snowpack. As the rain and meltwater poured into creeks and then rivers, it became a flood that damaged roads, cabins and utilities and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/floods-travel-montana-obituaries-evacuations-3753caa39435d9f3f45d8b582381a0c6">forced more than 10,000 people to evacuate</a>.</p>
<p>The Yellowstone River shattered its previous record and reached its highest water levels recorded since monitoring began almost 100 years ago.</p>
<p>Although floods are a natural occurrence, human-caused climate change is <a href="https://www.gyclimate.org/">making severe flooding events like these more common</a>. I study how climate change affects hydrology and flooding. In mountainous regions, three effects of climate change in particular are creating higher flood risks: more intense precipitation, shifting snow and rain patterns and the effects of wildfires on the landscape.</p>
<h2>Warmer air leads to more intense precipitation</h2>
<p>One effect of climate change is that a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heavy-precipitation">warmer atmosphere creates more intense precipitation events</a>. </p>
<p>This occurs because warmer air can hold more moisture. The amount of water vapor that the atmosphere can contain increases by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1452">about 7% for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit</a> (1 degree Celsius) of increase in atmospheric temperature.</p>
<p>Research has documented that this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024067">increase in extreme precipitation is already occurring</a>, not only in regions like Yellowstone, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-evidence-links-rise-in-extreme-precipitation-to-human-driven-climate-change-163715">around the globe</a>. The fact that the world has experienced multiple record flooding events in recent years – including catastrophic <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-61991112">flooding in</a> <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20220705.archive.shtml">Australia</a>, <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/europe-s-deadly-floods-leave-scientists-stunned">Western Europe</a> <a href="https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2022-07-12-around-1k-rescued-from-gujarat-floods-heavy-rains-to-continue">India</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/07/21/zhengzhou-china-record-rain-flooding/">China</a> – is not a coincidence. Climate change is making record-breaking extreme precipitation more likely.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman with work gloves and clothing covered in mud walks through a muddy residential street filled with mud-covered furniture and other damaged belongings people are throwing out after a flood." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471466/original/file-20220628-16342-auzmdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471466/original/file-20220628-16342-auzmdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471466/original/file-20220628-16342-auzmdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471466/original/file-20220628-16342-auzmdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471466/original/file-20220628-16342-auzmdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471466/original/file-20220628-16342-auzmdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471466/original/file-20220628-16342-auzmdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extreme rain storms triggered flooding and mudslides in Western Europe in July 2021, killing more than 200 people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/volunteers-and-residents-start-the-clean-up-process-at-news-photo/1329350141?adppopup=true">Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><iframe id="zBAAz" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zBAAz/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">assessment report</a> published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows how this pattern will continue in the future as global temperatures continue to rise.</p>
<h2>More precipitation falling as rain</h2>
<p>In colder areas, especially mountainous or high-latitude regions, climate change affects flooding in additional ways. </p>
<p>In these regions, many of the largest historical <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068070">floods have been caused by snowmelt</a>. However, with warmer winters due to climate change, <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-becoming-more-rainy-across-us-20017">less winter precipitation is falling as snow</a>, and more is falling as rain instead.</p>
<p>This shift from snow to rain can have dramatic implications for flooding. While snow typically melts slowly in the late spring or summer, rain creates runoff that flows to rivers more quickly. As a result, research has shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098855">rain-caused floods can be much larger than snowmelt-only floods</a>, and that the shift from snow to rain <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025571">increases overall flood risk</a>.</p>
<p>The transition from snow to rain is already occurring, <a href="https://theconversation.com/yellowstone-is-losing-its-snow-as-the-climate-warms-and-that-means-widespread-problems-for-water-and-wildlife-163223">including in places like Yellowstone National Park</a>. Scientists have also found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017784">rain-caused floods are becoming more common</a>. In some locations, the changes in flood risk due to the shift from snow to rain could even be larger than the effect from increased precipitation intensity.</p>
<p><iframe id="O1p7r" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/O1p7r/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Changing patterns of rain on snow</h2>
<p>When <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-3-319">rain falls on snow</a>, as happened in the recent flooding in Yellowstone, the combination of rain and snowmelt can lead to especially high runoff and flooding.</p>
<p>In some cases, rain-on-snow events occur while the ground is still partially frozen. Soil that is frozen or already saturated can’t absorb additional water, so even more of the rain and snowmelt run off, contributing directly to flooding. This combination of rain, snowmelt and frozen soils was a primary driver of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/18/us/nebraska-flooding-facts.html">Midwest flooding in March 2019</a> that caused over US$12 billion in damage.</p>
<p>While rain-on-snow events are not a new phenomenon, climate change can shift when and where they occur. Under warmer conditions, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0236-4">rain-on-snow events become more common at high elevations</a>, where they were previously rare. Because of the increases in rainfall intensity and warmer conditions that lead to rapid snowmelt, there is also the possibility of larger rain-on-snow events than these areas have experienced in the past.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large two-story building is collapsing after fast-moving water eroded the land under nearly half of it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471431/original/file-20220628-14648-yhqe7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471431/original/file-20220628-14648-yhqe7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471431/original/file-20220628-14648-yhqe7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471431/original/file-20220628-14648-yhqe7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471431/original/file-20220628-14648-yhqe7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471431/original/file-20220628-14648-yhqe7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471431/original/file-20220628-14648-yhqe7t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2022 Yellowstone flood inundated communities and swiftly eroded the land beneath this cabin that housed park employees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/yellowstonenps/52146801150">Gina Riquier via National Park Service</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In lower-elevation regions, rain-on-snow events may actually become less likely than they have been in the past because of the decrease in snow cover. These areas could still see worsening flood risk, though, because of the increase in heavy downpours.</p>
<h2>Compounding effects of wildfire and flooding</h2>
<p>Changes in flooding are not happening in isolation. Climate change is also exacerbating <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/climate-change-increases-risk-fires-western-us">wildfires</a>, creating another risk during rainstorms: mudslides. </p>
<p>Burned areas are more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001735">susceptible to mudslides and debris flows during extreme rain</a>, both because of the lack of vegetation and changes to the soil caused by the fire. In 2018 in Southern California, heavy rain within the boundary of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/02/us/thomas-fire-officially-out/index.html">2017 Thomas Fire</a> caused <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/11/us/mudslide-slider-california/index.html">major mudslides</a> that destroyed over 100 homes and led to more than 20 deaths. Fire can change the soil in ways that allow <a href="https://doi.org/10.2113/EEG-D-20-00029">less rain to infiltrate into the soil</a>, so more rain ends up in streams and rivers, leading to worse flood conditions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men point stand on a deck overlooking a neighboring house where mud has flowed through the yard and is mounded half way up the side of the home." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471467/original/file-20220628-14559-d6mcuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471467/original/file-20220628-14559-d6mcuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471467/original/file-20220628-14559-d6mcuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471467/original/file-20220628-14559-d6mcuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471467/original/file-20220628-14559-d6mcuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471467/original/file-20220628-14559-d6mcuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471467/original/file-20220628-14559-d6mcuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 2021 rainstorm that hit the denuded landscape of a burn scar sent mud flowing into streets and yards in Silverado, California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/two-men-survey-the-damage-from-mud-and-debris-that-ran-news-photo/1299356465">Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the uptick in wildfires due to climate change, more and more areas are exposed to these risks. This combination of wildfires followed by extreme rain will also become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm0320">more frequent in a future with more warming</a>.</p>
<p>Global warming is creating complex changes in our environment, and there is a clear picture that it increases flood risk. As the Yellowstone area and other flood-damaged mountain communities rebuild, they will have to find ways to adapt for a riskier future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Davenport does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Extreme downpours brought deadly flooding to the Appalachian region, just a few weeks after the destructive Yellowstone River flood.Frances Davenport, Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1775012022-04-26T12:15:27Z2022-04-26T12:15:27ZLinking protected areas from Yellowstone to the Yukon shows the value of conserving large landscapes, not just isolated parks and preserves<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459506/original/file-20220425-26-bowo07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C2035%2C1364&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fresh grizzly bear tracks in Yellowstone National Park.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/2g4woix">Jacob W. Frank, NPS/Flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As human development spreads ever farther around the world, very few large ecosystems remain relatively intact and uninterrupted by highways, cities or other human-constructed obstacles. One of the largest exceptions is the <a href="https://y2y.net/work/region/">Yellowstone to Yukon</a> region, or Y2Y, which stretches more than 2,000 miles (3,200 kilometers) northwest from Wyoming into Canada’s Yukon territory. </p>
<p>For the past 30 years conservationists have worked to knit this huge stretch of land together under the <a href="https://y2y.net/work/our-impact">Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative</a>. Y2Y seeks to make room for wildlife in connected landscapes that give animals the ability to move across large areas – whether they are following <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abf0998">age-old migration patterns</a> or <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-solutions/wyoming-wildlife-corridor/">responding to a changing climate</a>. </p>
<p>Throughout this huge region, hundreds of partners – conservation groups, private landowners, businesses, government agencies, tribes and scientists – have worked to knit landscapes together and make it possible for animals to move across it. Participants have constructed <a href="https://y2y.net/blog/recapping-the-roads-and-wildlife-in-the-transborder-region-webinar/">wildlife road crossings</a>, conducted “<a href="https://y2y.net/blog/6-tips-to-keep-yourself-your-pets-and-bears-safe/">bear aware” campaigns</a> to reduce clashes between people and animals, placed <a href="https://www.vitalground.org/vital-ground-yellowstone-to-yukon-safeguard-habitat-link-across-clark-fork-river-and-interstate-90/">conservation easements</a> on private lands and supported <a href="https://y2y.net/blog/indigenous-led-conservation-yellowstone-to-yukon-region/">Indigenous efforts</a> to protect sacred spaces. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459510/original/file-20220425-22-a129yh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing protected areas in the Y2Y region" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459510/original/file-20220425-22-a129yh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459510/original/file-20220425-22-a129yh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459510/original/file-20220425-22-a129yh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459510/original/file-20220425-22-a129yh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=758&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459510/original/file-20220425-22-a129yh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459510/original/file-20220425-22-a129yh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459510/original/file-20220425-22-a129yh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Y2Y Initiative envisions an interconnected system of wild lands and waters stretching from Yellowstone to the Yukon, harmonizing the needs of people and nature.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://y2y.net/work/our-impact/">Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Thanks to these efforts, grizzly bears range farther in the areas near Yellowstone National Park than they did 30 years ago. Animals are wandering across 117 new wildlife road crossings safely instead of getting killed. And Y2Y is consistently highlighted as an example of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix142">how large-landscape conservation can work</a>. </p>
<p>We study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=SVUaffQAAAAJ&hl=en">wildlife ecology</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=yhrCijUAAAAJ&hl=en">international cooperation for conservation</a> and have both served on Y2Y’s board of directors. One of us, Charles Chester, serves as the U.S. chair of the Y2Y Council, which advises the Y2Y Initiative. We both have long worked to assess how large-landscape conservation initiatives such as Y2Y make a difference. Although the answer can be hard to quantify, we have identified a number of ways in which Y2Y has expanded the scale and effectiveness of conservation.</p>
<h2>Inspired by a wolf</h2>
<p>Y2Y was conceived by Canadian conservationist <a href="https://y2y.net/about/vision-mission/history/">Harvey Locke</a> in 1993 as nations were looking for ways to carry out their commitments under the <a href="https://www.cbd.int">Convention on Biological Diversity</a>. Signed by 150 nations at the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/conferences/environment/rio1992">1992 Rio Earth Summit</a>, this sprawling document addressed conservation and sustainable use of natural resources, global equity and other goals related to protecting life on Earth. </p>
<p>Locke was inspired by the <a href="https://anchor.fm/wildanimals/episodes/Pluie--the-wolf-who-inspired-carnivore-recovery-across-the-west-e3vkuf">wanderings of a single wolf</a>. On a rainy morning in 1991, Canadian biologist Paul Paquet captured and radio-collared “Pluie,” or “Rain” in French, near <a href="https://www.pc.gc.ca/en/pn-np/ab/banff">Banff National Park</a> in the Canadian Rockies – the first time that a scientist had put a satellite radiocollar on a wolf. Over the next two years, researchers were astonished by Pluie’s wide-ranging movements over some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/23/science/earth/23wolf.html">40,000 square miles (100,000 square kilometers)</a> in Canada and the U.S. before she was killed by a trapper in British Columbia. </p>
<p>This lone journey clearly showed that conservationists needed to think beyond creating individual protected areas, like parks and wildlife refuges, for wide-ranging species and take larger landscapes into account. This approach aligned with the principles of the emerging field of conservation biology – the science of <a href="https://conbio.org/professional-development/education-programs/conservation-biology-faq">protecting and restoring all forms of life on Earth</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/oRZB6KaRhIg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Yellowstone to Yukon’s conservation scientist, Aerin Jacob, explains why large mammals need ways to move across many miles in order to survive.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Assessing Y2Y</h2>
<p>With several collaborators, we have worked to measure Y2Y’s conservation effects for the past five years. We used a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13570">counterfactual approach</a> to compare trends in protected areas before and after the formation of Y2Y, and to compare Y2Y to regions without similarly broad visions in two areas of North America. Our analysis asked what would have happened without Y2Y by comparing the rates at which protected areas have expanded in the Y2Y region to other areas of North America without similar conservation visions. </p>
<p>We found compelling evidence that Y2Y <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.588">has greatly increased wildlife protection across its region</a>. From 1993 through 2018, habitat protection increased from 7.8% to 17.6% of the Y2Y region. Elsewhere in North America, protected areas grew by only 2.5% during the same period. </p>
<p>We also found that:</p>
<p>• Federally endangered grizzly bears expanded their range in the U.S. portion of the Y2Y region.</p>
<p>• Private land conservation in the region grew substantially; and </p>
<p>• Building <a href="https://y2y.net/blog/recapping-the-roads-and-wildlife-in-the-transborder-region-webinar/">at least 117 wildlife crossings</a> gave the Y2Y region the highest number of such structures in the world, helping wildlife move around and making roads safer for people. </p>
<p>Y2Y is one of the world’s earliest and largest landscape conservation initiatives. Conservationists <a href="https://www.iucn.org/content/integrating-biodiversity-conservation-and-sustainable-use-lessons-learned-ecological-networks">view it as a model</a> of how conservation can work for all creatures, great and small. </p>
<p>In our view, perhaps Y2Y’s most significant accomplishment has been expanding the conservation community’s conception of <a href="https://portals.iucn.org/library/node/49061">how to do large-landscape conservation effectively and equitably</a>. Through <a href="https://y2y.net/about/partners/">connecting and partnering with hundreds of organizations and individuals</a> who are working on focused conservation projects throughout the region, it shows how people and wildlife can thrive together. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/BE87KSsN6MF/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>The future of Y2Y</h2>
<p>There is still much to do. In an <a href="https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3181&context=extension_curall">internet-enabled economy</a>, people can work from anywhere. Many are moving to the Y2Y region for its natural beauty, abundant wildlife and outdoor activities. Ironically, Y2Y’s success is generating <a href="https://mountainjournal.org/will-human-population-growth-destroy-the-american-serengeti">development concerns</a>. </p>
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<p>Logging, mining and fossil fuel production also present major challenges for protecting land. And climate change is <a href="https://doi.org/10.2737/RMRS-GTR-374PART1">altering conditions for people and wildlife</a> <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2021/12/the-impacts-of-a-changing-climate-canadas-top-ten-weather-stories-of-2021.html">throughout the Y2Y region</a>. Y2Y and its partners have <a href="https://130ncw3ap53r1mtmx23gorrc-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/69/2019/08/963y2yclimchangeweb.pdf">recognized this threat</a>, but it remains to be seen how land conservation will play out in a highly altered landscape. </p>
<p>One key Y2Y priority is recognizing the rights of Indigenous groups, who often are pushed off of lands they have managed for years when outside groups come in and turn these sites into protected areas. This approach has become known as <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199599868.001.0001/acref-9780199599868-e-644">fortress conservation</a>, because it seeks to protect places by building walls around them.</p>
<p>The Y2Y movement acknowledged the rights of Indigenous groups <a href="https://130ncw3ap53r1mtmx23gorrc-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/69/2019/08/661asenseofplacethey2yatlas.pdf">from the start</a>, and is collaborating with them to establish several new <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2022/04/indigenous-knowledge-and-science-team-up-to-triple-a-caribou-herd/">Indigenous-led protected areas</a> in the Y2Y region. These additions were led by and will be co-managed with Indigenous governments. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1517836758259429378"}"></div></p>
<h2>An international model</h2>
<p>In the fall of 2022 international negotiators will meet in Kunming, China, for the second part of the <a href="https://www.cbd.int/conferences/2021-2022">15th Conference of the Parties</a> to the Biodiversity Convention. One of this meeting’s key goals is to finalize a working draft of a strategic plan for conserving global biodiversity for the next decade or more. </p>
<p>The current draft calls for protection of 30% of lands and seas worldwide by 2030, based on the growing science of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2773-z">area-based conservation</a>. Achieving this goal would more than double the targets that nations agreed to in 2011 – 17% for land, 10% for seas. </p>
<p>Such goals might once have seemed out of the question, but initiatives like Y2Y show that they are attainable. As we see it, Y2Y is the right scale for effective conservation on a changing planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177501/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles C. Chester is the Chair of the Yellowstone to Yukon Council and a former Board member of the Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative (Y2Y). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Hebblewhite currently receives funding from National Science Foundation, Parks Canada, Alberta Conservation Association, and the Bureau of Land Management. He has served on the Board of Directors for Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative, on the Montana Project Advisory Committee of the Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation, as a science team member of the USFWS Sierra Nevada recovery team, as a member of the NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting team, as a science advisor to Environment Canada for recovery of boreal woodland caribou, and as a science advisor to the Alberta caribou recovery team. </span></em></p>Parks and refuges are important for conservation, but without connections, they’re like islands. Linking them by protecting land in between makes it possible for wildlife to move over bigger areas.Charles C. Chester, Lecturer in Environmental Studies, Brandeis UniversityMark Hebblewhite, Professor of Ungulate Habitat Ecology, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/591482016-06-01T01:00:21Z2016-06-01T01:00:21ZUnlocking the secrets of bacterial biofilms – to use against them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124356/original/image-20160527-894-iuv5a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's bacterial biofilms that give the Grand Prismatic Spring its colorful hues.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Karin Sauer</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Standing on a walkway at Yellowstone National Park, I admired the hues of orange, blue and yellow in the sand of the Grand Prismatic Spring. A small sign nearby read “bacterial mats.” Visitors to Yellowstone may have noticed similar signs all over the park, but they’re often overlooked on the way to waterfalls, geysers, hot springs and more.</p>
<p>But these colorful structures at my feet were the reason I had come. Well, I needed a vacation – and what better place then Yellowstone? – but professional curiosity had a lot to do with the destination. I’m a microbiologist, and I had come to see the bacterial mats.</p>
<p>More commonly known as biofilms, these communities of tightly packed bacteria grow in close association with surfaces such as sand and soil. The term “biofilms” suggests a thin, two-dimensional substance, but these communities feature microscopic-scale tower-like structures crisscrossed with water channels, all of which is encased in a protective, self-produced slimy layer. The bacteria within communicate and demonstrate cooperative behavior reminiscent of primitive organs.</p>
<p>As visually stunning as I find these biofilms in nature, these bacterial communities can be detrimental to human health. Scientists like me are investigating how these bacterial biofilms form and behave so we can figure out new ways to manage and control them.</p>
<h2>Biofilms are all around us</h2>
<p>While made up of bacteria that are invisible to the naked eye, biofilms themselves can be much bigger, ranging from less than an inch to several hundred feet in size. Yellowstone is home to the most extensive and most colorful biofilms I’ve ever seen, but these bacterial communities are not unique to the park. Biofilms are found anywhere in nature, visible as <a href="http://genomealberta.ca/blogs/curiosity-about-stromatolites-and-biofilm.aspx">stromatolites</a>, pond scum and the slimy, slippery layer coating rocks and pebbles in streams.</p>
<p>And biofilms are not limited to the environment, either, since bacteria will stick to almost any surface in aqueous conditions and encase themselves with a slime matrix. Indeed, biofilms pose <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/87559129209540953">numerous problems to human-made materials</a> such as ship hulls, cooling towers, sewage treatment plants, oil refineries, food processing and beverage plants, and household plumbing. You’ve likely seen them yourself while cleaning or doing repairs in your kitchen or bathroom, as a thick and slimy buildup in your drains and pipes. Biofilms can be a real nuisance, <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/mfornalik/intro-to-biofilms-3522031">causing biofouling and corrosion</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.284.5418.1318">ubiquity of biofilms</a> in our surroundings is supported by findings that the majority of bacteria, up to 90 percent, prefer <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/340020">living in surface-associated biofilm communities</a> rather than as free-floating, individual bacteria (what we call planktonic bacteria).</p>
<p>So why do bacteria <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/JB.00003-12">tend to form communities</a>? For one thing, there’s strength in numbers. By banding together within their slimy protection, biofilm bacteria can remain in favorable locations or hosts, better withstand nutrient deprivation, stress, dessication and predation. At the same time, they benefit from increased cooperation and exchange of genetic material.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124520/original/image-20160530-7692-10riis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124520/original/image-20160530-7692-10riis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124520/original/image-20160530-7692-10riis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124520/original/image-20160530-7692-10riis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124520/original/image-20160530-7692-10riis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124520/original/image-20160530-7692-10riis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124520/original/image-20160530-7692-10riis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124520/original/image-20160530-7692-10riis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scanning electron micrograph of part of a central venous catheter, removed from a patient, that was colonized by a biofilm of rod-shaped bacteria associated with fibrinlike material on the catheter’s surface.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://phil.cdc.gov/">Janice Haney Carr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Biofilms can harm human health</h2>
<p>Biofilms have been linked to contamination of <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/10445490260099700">contact lenses leading to corneal ulcers</a>. They’re associated with <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022034510368644">dental plaque that leads to caries and periodontitis</a>. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.284.5418.1318">They can infect</a> <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09782-4">surgical sites</a>, the urinary tract, chronic and burn wounds and the lungs of cystic fibrosis patients. And they love to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-22805-3.00005-0">colonize medical devices</a> such as catheters, prosthetic joints and heart valves.</p>
<p>According to the National Institutes of Health, more than 65 percent of <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2049-632X.12151">chronic inflammatory and infectious diseases</a> are due to biofilms. According to research, biofilm-related infections claim as many lives as heart attack or cancer. And they are costly, with treatment of biofilm-related infections <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bit.21838">ranging into the billions</a> annually worldwide.</p>
<p>Why are we not better equipped to treat such bacterial infections? Research by my laboratory and others has demonstrated that when bacteria attach to a surface and grow as biofilms, they undergo a change, as evidenced by the genes they express and the proteins they produce. One of the consequences of this change is that biofilm bacteria become less susceptible to biocides, disinfectants and antibiotics. </p>
<p>Scientists think there are several reasons for this decrease in susceptibility. First, the slimy layer encasing biofilms can make it hard for disinfectants or antimicrobials to even physically reach the bacteria. Also, bacteria living in biofilms experience high stress levels while growing rather slowly, which can render most antibiotics ineffective since they only work on actively growing cells. My favorite theory is that living in a biofilm changes bacteria and their behavior; something about their mix of active genes and proteins just makes them more resilient. Whatever the contributing factors, bacteria growing in a biofilm can be <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/JB.00765-12">up to 1,000-fold more resistant to antibiotics</a> than the same bacteria grown planktonically.</p>
<p>This profound tolerance to antimicrobial agents – a hallmark of biofilms – is at the root of many persistent infections and renders biofilms extremely difficult to control in medical settings. <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK84450/">Conventional therapies have proven inadequate</a> in the treatment of many if not most chronic biofilm infections, mainly because they have been geared toward bacteria growing planktonically and not as biofilms.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124591/original/image-20160531-1943-1tkghh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124591/original/image-20160531-1943-1tkghh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124591/original/image-20160531-1943-1tkghh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124591/original/image-20160531-1943-1tkghh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124591/original/image-20160531-1943-1tkghh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124591/original/image-20160531-1943-1tkghh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124591/original/image-20160531-1943-1tkghh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124591/original/image-20160531-1943-1tkghh6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The formation of surface-associated biofilm communities (A) can be prevented or significantly reduced (B) by interfering with key factors required for their development. Bacterial cells are stained green.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Karin Sauer</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New lines of attack against biofilms</h2>
<p>Research suggests a promising new avenue for biofilm control: the manipulation of the biofilm lifestyle. Yes, for bacteria, being in a biofilm is a lifestyle choice.</p>
<p>The biofilm way of life is initiated when a few planktonic bacteria adhere to a surface. Once attached, these bacteria will divide and grow into more complex, three-dimensional structures – the biofilm. If resources become exhausted or the biofilm become too overcrowded, bacteria can escape it, as a means of survival and dissemination.</p>
<p>It’s the two extremes of their lifestyle, the beginning and the end, attachment and escape, that have become major foci of research endeavors looking for ways to defeat biofilms.</p>
<p>When it comes to controlling attachment, much research has focused on the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-695X.2011.00858.x">development of new surface materials</a> aimed at preventing the formation of biofilms on medical devices in the first place. The idea is to render devices’ surfaces nonsticky, repelling or otherwise toxic for those first pioneering bacteria. If they can’t latch on and get a toehold, no biofilm can eventually form. Surface coatings containing colloidal silver, antibiotics or micro-brushes can render medical devices inhospitable.</p>
<p>Likewise, the hunt is on for new chemical compounds that prevent attachment or induce escape strategies. Researchers are <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/JB.01214-08">starting to have some success</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://bingweb.binghamton.edu/%7Eksauer/">My own research</a>, along with that of colleagues at Binghamton University and around the world, has led me down another path. I’ve been trying to understand how bacteria actually make these amazing biofilm structures. What proteins, polymers and factors do they need to coordinate their lifestyle? What have we learned that would let us manipulate this biofilm lifestyle?</p>
<p>It’s unlikely there will be only one effective treatment strategy to defeat biofilms. For one thing, many varieties of bacteria form biofilms, and they all use somewhat different strategies to enable this lifestyle. For instance, while bacteria may coordinate the formation of biofilms via chemical signals, the molecules used by bacteria such as <em>E. coli</em> or <em>S. aureus</em> to do so differ quite dramatically. Likewise with the species-specific sets of proteins required to coordinate the formation of each kind of biofilm. So as we target individual characteristics, some of our tactics work better on one group than another. </p>
<p>But biofilm bacteria also share some common features that we can take advantage of, including their need for communication and coordination. Building a biofilm, escaping from the biofilm or even living in a biofilm requires some sort of coordination among the millions of bacteria that make it up. They can do so by communicating with each other, using a chemical language or proteins. Jamming the bacterial language (although there are many) or interfering with their key factors required for coordination has proven to be a successful strategy to block or modify biofilm formation, at least in laboratory settings and some clinical pilot studies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124590/original/image-20160531-1943-iim40a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124590/original/image-20160531-1943-iim40a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124590/original/image-20160531-1943-iim40a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124590/original/image-20160531-1943-iim40a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124590/original/image-20160531-1943-iim40a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124590/original/image-20160531-1943-iim40a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124590/original/image-20160531-1943-iim40a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124590/original/image-20160531-1943-iim40a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biofilms before (A) and after (B) exposure to ‘Escape from the biofilm!’ chemical signal. Note the biofilms in (B) are hollow, appearing like empty shells. Bacterial cells are stained in green.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Karin Sauer</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Likewise, repurposing the bacterial language has shown promise. For instance, when we co-opt the bacterial language to signal “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/JB.01214-08">escape from the biofilm!</a>” we can trick biofilm bacteria into giving up their protective lifestyle and converting to planktonic cells again. The added benefit is the planktonic cells are more susceptible to antibiotics.</p>
<p>Controlling biofilms in the future will likely require a combination of strategies, addressing both attachment and escape, with and without the use of antibiotics and communication blockers, and likely in a manner more or less tailored toward the different bacterial lifestyles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>My research is currently supported by grants from the National Institute of Health and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.
</span></em></p>The vast majority of the bacteria that surround us are not free-floating but prefer to band together in cooperative communities called biofilms. How do biofilms form and cooperate?Karin Sauer, Professor of Biological Sciences, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/407412015-04-24T13:28:39Z2015-04-24T13:28:39ZYellowstone earthquakes reveal a volcanic system six times bigger than we thought<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79151/original/image-20150423-25553-ug9ubp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">I've been underestimated for too long.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/allan_harris/4835019324">alh1/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Seismologists have discovered a massive magma reservoir beneath the <a href="http://www.volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=325010">Yellowstone supervolcano</a> in Wyoming, US, that suggests its volcanic system could be more than 5.6 times larger than was previously thought. </p>
<p>Although it was already known that Yellowstone had one magma reservoir, located about 5-16km (3-10 miles) below the surface, <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/04/22/science.aaa5648.abstract">the new study</a>, published in Science, has revealed another, much larger reservoir sitting directly below the first, located around 20-50km (12-30 miles) below the surface. This reservoir is thought to have a volume of around 46,000 cubic km – compared to a volume of around 10,000 cubic km for the shallow reservoir.</p>
<p>To make their discovery scientists analysed the vibrations made by earthquakes that passed beneath the volcano. The technique not only sheds light on this volcano’s <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=130898">potentially life-threatening eruptions</a> but it could also help us understand other volcanoes such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/calbuco-volcano-evacuations-and-air-traffic-disruption-follow-eruption-40720">Calbuco</a>, which is currently erupting in Chile. </p>
<h2>Sleeping beauty</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79248/original/image-20150424-14585-5igqfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79248/original/image-20150424-14585-5igqfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79248/original/image-20150424-14585-5igqfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79248/original/image-20150424-14585-5igqfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79248/original/image-20150424-14585-5igqfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79248/original/image-20150424-14585-5igqfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79248/original/image-20150424-14585-5igqfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Luckily no sign of an eruption anytime soon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/98674575@N02/9270994938">gcnmrk5ii/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yellowstone volcano is composed of an immense volcanic crater - known as a caldera - more more than 70km (44 miles) in length, most of which lies within Yellowstone National Park. The volcano rarely erupts lava (it last did so about <a href="http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/">70,000 years ago</a>, but the magma lying beneath the surface gives rise to spectacular geothermal features, such as geysers and colourful hot springs. </p>
<p>The last large eruption at Yellowstone <a href="http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/yellowstone_sub_page_54.html">was 640,000 years ago</a>, and ejected around 1,000 cubic kilometres (240 cubic miles) of volcanic material. This cataclysm created the Yellowstone caldera. To get an idea of the scale of this, the largest eruption in recorded history, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/037702738690079X">Mount Tambora in 1815</a>, erupted about a sixth of that. </p>
<p>Magma reservoirs are thought to occur beneath most volcanoes, and play a crucial role in the dynamics of eruptions. However, they are too deep, and conditions within them too extreme, to be measured directly so volcanologists have to infer information about them using other means, such as measuring seismic waves. These waves travel more slowly when they pass through molten rock, and accordingly the group were able to use the velocities of the earthquake waves to infer the presence of a large, deep zone of partially molten material. </p>
<h2>Carbon footprint explained</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79243/original/image-20150424-14549-oz0jhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79243/original/image-20150424-14549-oz0jhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79243/original/image-20150424-14549-oz0jhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79243/original/image-20150424-14549-oz0jhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79243/original/image-20150424-14549-oz0jhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79243/original/image-20150424-14549-oz0jhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79243/original/image-20150424-14549-oz0jhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Powerful fissures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/4780005143">Steve Jurvetson/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The magma stored in the deeper reservoir probably doesn’t cause eruptions at Yellowstone directly. Instead, it likely acts as a “feeder” for the smaller, shallower reservoir – which is the ultimate source of the volcano’s catastrophic eruptions. Scientists had suspected the existence of a second magma reservoir at Yellowstone for some time, but this new evidence is among the strongest support of the theory to date. </p>
<p>The discovery of this second magma reservoir may also help to explain a mysterious feature of the Yellowstone volcano: its carbon footprint. <a href="http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php">Carbon dioxide gas</a> is commonplace at volcanoes (it is given off by rising magma), but Yellowstone’s output, which is around <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.V33C0696E">45,000 tonnes</a> of CO<sub>2</sub> each day, was too high to be explained by a single magma reservoir. But according to the study’s authors, the presence of the new reservoir is enough to account for the volcano’s CO<sub>2</sub> flux. </p>
<p>If the high-resolution seismic imaging technique used in the study could be repeated at other volcanoes whose deep structure is poorly understood – such as Calbuco volcano in Chile – volcanologists might eventually be able to understand how such eruptions take place. The first stirrings of volcanic eruptions happen far below the surface. If researchers can emulate the findings at Yellowstone at other volcanoes, it can only tell us more about the risks they pose.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Wylie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Earthquake analysis could help us understand the deep structure of volcanoes.Robin Wylie, PhD researcher in Volcanology, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/362772015-01-15T06:03:10Z2015-01-15T06:03:10ZThe very useful art of assessing a supervolcano without making it erupt<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69058/original/image-20150114-3891-fqh8a2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If Campi Flegrei ever goes off, you won't want to be in Naples - or Europe!</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/emainthecoffee/476237979/in/photolist-J5QXD-drW76x-9fCX6g-8KZKw4-7iK4vz-f7KXLt-9NM1by-pMc4Ky-81Y6a2-qwfeyi-o3hwrZ-gvR4QZ-gME3KC-hycMvd-arFHsZ-pRzJ1H-7J285W-fEn3Lj-6hVsmj-6hVsmh-5ZJLMc-pNzJrG-fDL3Cw-pdQkJK-q3iRV5-a884et-kjcowK-ocz19m-otij4z-q6zDa3-cEZRW1-jvqaXU-cv6e5o-cv6ez9-fDu8na-cYbs7o-obqhor-cKTAUN-gGY9Li-iDkd3Y-b5SiDp-hdTkQe-gRiWPC-c2QDd1-cKUMNS-yrzJf-drWfkS-5XFc6w-jcK847-hJMPg7">Emanuele Nicastro</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ever heard of <a href="http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/campi-flegrei.html">Campi Flegrei</a>? It is a supervolcano in southern Italy. Literally translating as “fields of fire,” only the <a href="http://io9.com/what-will-really-happen-when-yellowstone-volcano-has-a-508274690">Yellowstone caldera</a> in the United States has more potential to devastate. </p>
<p>The Naples urban area, with its four million inhabitants, extends within this amazing volcanic complex, though it lies mostly beneath the sea. The last time that Campi Flegrei <a href="http://www.geo.mtu.edu/volcanoes/boris/mirror/mirrored_html/Montenuovo.html">erupted was</a> less than 500 years ago, in 1538. It was one of the volcano’s smallest eruptions down the millennia, but it lasted a week and killed 24 people. </p>
<h2>The risks</h2>
<p>You may think that the chance of living in a city where the weather is nice and warm and you smell history at every corner is well worth the volcanic risk. But before buying the tickets, note that Campi Flegrei and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/earth/collections/mount_vesuvius">Mt Vesuvius</a>, his more famous and much smaller brother (remember Pompei?) are just the visible scars of a supervolcano whose <a href="http://www.vuelco.net/campi2.php">previous eruptions</a> 35,000 and 15,000 years ago spread volcanic materials over an area of 10,000 sq km. The effects of an eruption of Campi Flegrei could dwarf those of any eruption recorded in human history, and, in the worst-case scenario, challenge human life on the old continent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69050/original/image-20150114-3859-13vqcls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69050/original/image-20150114-3859-13vqcls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69050/original/image-20150114-3859-13vqcls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69050/original/image-20150114-3859-13vqcls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69050/original/image-20150114-3859-13vqcls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69050/original/image-20150114-3859-13vqcls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69050/original/image-20150114-3859-13vqcls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69050/original/image-20150114-3859-13vqcls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vesuvius: big brother’s little brother.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/glosters/3704149196/in/photolist-5BMQME-cCZXis-8ZASJi-dNfef1-7z1jBX-bp5avf-9LDioy-a3Rswx-a3Ui8Y-ezHgdK-6DjJvj-dXEHk9-2fuJfs-KZ9cg-gMD3zD-8ZE1qf-dYYK36-5Vje4X-9VDe23-5zkK6f-4NUrvD-4y5eLQ-cCZUfG-npkHNg-8bjVu6-7b3Wd4-nBj2ec-98LF9y-823jhT-bXgFip-8NHQEg-buGCFj-f28U3R-5uiYBD-4eZMQz-pNPkBN-bgVpdR-oS68A-4phaG8-pHCTi-49Q4MY-98EBqE-546erG-6TY9j9-98EBV1-pjfVT9-2ra2Sv-5jLZMy-bLgdR6-7t2Jqd">shipscompass</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is possibly the moment where you start thinking about what scientists are doing to understand if and when such an eruption will take place. The good news is that the <a href="http://www.ov.ingv.it/ov/en.html">Vesuvius Observatory</a> (OV), monitoring both Mt Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, is the oldest volcanology observatory in the world. Here geologists, geophysicists, and physicists join forces in a unique environment to understand what’s beneath these volcanoes.</p>
<h2>Drilling and drawbacks</h2>
<p>A good example is the <a href="http://www.icdp-online.org/projects/world/europe/campi-flegrei/">EU deep drilling project</a>, which the OV sponsors. The idea is simple: you drill to a depth of 2.5 miles inside Campi Flegrei caldera to get sensitive scientific data and rock samples, and obtain geothermal energy from the heated volcanic complex. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69061/original/image-20150114-3874-1y2622y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69061/original/image-20150114-3874-1y2622y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69061/original/image-20150114-3874-1y2622y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69061/original/image-20150114-3874-1y2622y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69061/original/image-20150114-3874-1y2622y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69061/original/image-20150114-3874-1y2622y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69061/original/image-20150114-3874-1y2622y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69061/original/image-20150114-3874-1y2622y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ah southern Italy: sun, sea… and lots of boiling lava.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Luca de Siena</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But what happens when you drill an active caldera like this one? As with many simple ideas, this project has been accused of being simplistic and <a href="http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2011-01/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-deep-drilling-supervolcano">somewhat dangerous</a>, due to the fact that the drilling itself may cause changes in the state of the volcanic complex, triggering earthquakes and, possibly, a volcanic eruption.</p>
<p>This is a perfect example of striking the balance between not doing enough to prevent a catastrophe, and doing too much. In the case of Campi Flegrei, the drilling was stopped by the local authority after only a preliminary hole had been drilled. <a href="http://www.icdp-online.org/projects/world/europe/iceland/">In other volcanoes</a>, the drilling caused no problems, but the debate about the safety of the technique rages on – and it has the added disadvantage of being very expensive. </p>
<p>A possible solution may come from another, completely different question: is there another way to “see” inside a volcano without drilling? Using modern technology, we can look at distant stars and inside our own bodies. Can we do the same with a volcano? The answer is that although it is not the same, we can. </p>
<h2>How attenuation tomography works</h2>
<p>You can’t use light to look into the Earth, at least not the “light” we employ to look at the cosmos. And there is no instrument that can scan a volcano like we can do with a human body. But the Earth and, to an even greater extent, volcanoes, talk to us continuously – although our ears are not particularly good at listening. Notice that I say “listening” rather than “looking,” since the sound waves from our voices are in fact the most similar to the Earth’s way of expression: earthquakes, producing elastic waves.</p>
<p>When a strong earthquake happens it is similar to a shout that we record by measuring vibrations on the Earth’s surface. We can use this shout to <a href="http://www.iris.edu/hq/files/programs/education_and_outreach/aotm/7/SeismicTomography_Background.pdf">scan the</a> deep Earth interior, looking at how and where the velocity of the waves is changed by the medium. </p>
<p>Having said that, the voice of a large tectonic earthquake is actually quite plain. A supervolcano like Campi Flegrei speaks in much more interesting and various ways, with magma and hot fluids creating a song of continuous drumbeats and blasts.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69053/original/image-20150114-3888-m7vizx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69053/original/image-20150114-3888-m7vizx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69053/original/image-20150114-3888-m7vizx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69053/original/image-20150114-3888-m7vizx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69053/original/image-20150114-3888-m7vizx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69053/original/image-20150114-3888-m7vizx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69053/original/image-20150114-3888-m7vizx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69053/original/image-20150114-3888-m7vizx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Campi Flegrei’s sulphurous nostrils.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ekieram/1843803321/in/photolist-3NVYur-dqEhg1-oM7MZH-8Jpqj6-8JnRD4-8Jpk9t-8Jr1XQ-8Jr1wj-8JpkVD-8Jr6RN-8Jss8U-8JpNbX-8JsP2U-8JnQJi-8JnUue-8JsGXJ-8JsxqC-8JqTtS-8JqT1y-8JsPmu-8JnNuB-8Jo4ut-8JssZd-8JpLTH-8JnQg8-8JsL3N-8JsJ95-8JpHKK-8JsJyY-8JpCqM-8Jr2mA-8JsxPY-8Jrft7-8JpDEn-8JnYxz-8JqUR9-8JnN5F-8JnSBe-8Jr181-8Jptqt-8JsCR9-8JpqKP-8JpJXx-8JsBzm-8JqYBY-8JrcMu-8JpBG4-8JsALm-8JsQbm-8Jobn6">EkieraM</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Volcano seismologists use this energy to produce images of what’s inside them. Here’s how this works, in simple terms. Think of loud music coming out of a stereo (the earthquake). If the stereo is in your room, you hear it strong and clear (the louder the nearer you are to it). </p>
<p>Now put a wall between you and the stereo. The volume is lowered as the sound energy is either reflected by the wall or lost inside it. If you are able to measure which notes are lost the most and where “the wall” is you are performing an “attenuation tomography”: only that, instead of the wall, we are talking about a magmatic chamber. </p>
<p>This technique is still relatively new. The Japanese developed it for their volcanoes in the 1990s, but it is only in the past decade that it has reached the West. It has also been applied to Mt St Helen in the north-western US and some South American volcanoes, but not yet to Yellowstone. </p>
<p>In combination with other geophysical and geological observations, we have used this technique to establish that there is <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JB006938/abstract">no large magmatic chamber</a> under Campi Flegrei between 0km and 4km depth – at least there wasn’t during the last seismic crisis, which <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CDYQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Felea.unisa.it%3A8080%2Fjspui%2Fbitstream%2F10556%2F1486%2F1%2Ftesi_I_Sabbetta.pdf&ei=Os-2VOz0JYXxaozsgYAE&usg=AFQjCNHbJ398rAyVP8xGLCk7WOLnJarf3Q&sig2=NWa4TTGL3dB39srGwk0Uuw&bvm=bv.83640239,d.ZWU">was between</a> 1980 and 1984. </p>
<p>So if you were thinking about relocating to southern Italy, perhaps this suggests that you would be safe and sound. It probably does mean that there is no immediate risk of an eruption of lava or magma, though you could still see eruptions of gas and fluids (a so-called phreatic eruption). </p>
<p>The volcano is alive and “breathes,” even inside the Naples urban area. You can see it in the way its surface goes <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/tentativelists/2030/">up and down</a> each year and you can smell it from the steam produced by the holes that the volcano <a href="http://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/LocationPhotoDirectLink-g187785-i67186179-Naples_Province_of_Naples_Campania.html">has opened</a> on the Earth’s surface. </p>
<p>This “breathing” is a constant reminder to those living in the area, though it is possibly good news. You can think of it like a bottle of champagne continually losing pressure. Having said that, we do not know what’s happening deeper underground – except that there is probably <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL034242/full">magma at a depth of 8 km</a>, which is quite a long way down, feeding both Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius. If magma is recharged and heated continuously, the pressure could grow and the lava could arrive to the surface very quickly – though with clear signs days/weeks before the eruption.</p>
<p>A volcano scientist monitoring Campi Flegrei uses all these senses to understand what he would see if we could actually drill a large hole in the ground. Although we are still not perfect at it, we have at least started listening to Campi Flegrei’s voice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36277/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luca spent four years working for the Vesuvius Observatory, including three at PhD level and one as a post-doc </span></em></p>Ever heard of Campi Flegrei? It is a supervolcano in southern Italy. Literally translating as “fields of fire,” only the Yellowstone caldera in the United States has more potential to devastate. The Naples…Luca De Siena, Lecturer, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.