tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/electric-cars-8064/articlesElectric cars – The Conversation2024-03-22T12:33:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259862024-03-22T12:33:52Z2024-03-22T12:33:52ZEPA’s new auto emissions standard will speed the transition to cleaner cars, while also addressing consumer and industry concerns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583580/original/file-20240321-17-nik9ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C12%2C8588%2C5729&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Charging bays at the Electrify America indoor electric vehicle charging station in San Francisco.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ElectricVehiclesFancyChargers/c523cbda2a68423595229884d4da249b/photo">AP Photo/Eric Risberg</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency released <a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-multi-pollutant-emissions-standards-model">strict new emissions limits</a> on March 20, 2024, for cars built from 2027 through 2032. The final rule for Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards caps a process that started almost a year earlier, when the Biden administration first proposed groundbreaking regulations that would essentially require automakers to make a <a href="https://theconversation.com/boosting-ev-market-share-to-67-of-us-car-sales-is-a-huge-leap-but-automakers-can-meet-epas-tough-new-standards-203663">substantial pivot toward electrification</a>.</p>
<p>The original proposal met significant pushback from carmakers and unions, who argued that the industry <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/02/18/epa-electric-vehicles-car-rules/">needed more time to switch</a> from gas-powered cars to EVs. As a result, while the final target that this rule sets is very similar to the one that was initially proposed, the timetable in the final rule – especially in the earlier years – is relatively relaxed. </p>
<p>That means more carbon emissions in the short run. Politics is inevitably an important consideration in regulating major industries.</p>
<p>The new rule is projected to cut carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/420f24016.pdf">by nearly 50% in model year 2032</a> relative to existing standards. This requires a broad shift toward EVs, but automakers have many options for complying. </p>
<p>For example, they could emphasize producing battery-electric vehicles or more mixed fleets that include large shares of <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a45498641/types-of-hybrid-cars-pros-and-cons-explained/">hybrids and plug-in hybrids</a>, plus cleaner gas-powered cars. EPA projects that under the rule, in model years 2030-32, battery-electric vehicles may account for <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/420f24016.pdf">up to 56% of new cars</a>, up from <a href="https://apnews.com/article/epa-electric-vehicles-emissions-limits-climate-biden-e6d581324af51294048df24269b5d20a">7.6% in 2023</a>. </p>
<p>As a researcher who studies <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=h-2TvzUAAAAJ&hl=en">the electric vehicle industry and adoption of EVs</a>, I believe the new rule will nevertheless push electrification nationwide. There’s a lot of latent demand for this technology throughout the country, and this regulation will help bring that supply to broader populations. It also is likely to spur more installation of chargers and other supporting infrastructure.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The new rule will help slow climate change and save billions of dollars in health care costs.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Impacts on consumers</h2>
<p>Traditionally, new fuel efficiency and emissions standards directly affect vehicle costs and often lead to higher prices at the dealership. However, the EPA projects that in the long term, driving electric vehicles, which <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/electric-vehicle-charging-price-vs-gasoline/">cost less to fuel and maintain than gas-powered cars</a>, will save owners <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/420f24016.pdf">US$6,000 on average</a> over the life of a new car. </p>
<p>Moreover, EVs bring broader benefits, such as improved air quality and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, which benefit society as a whole. </p>
<p>Fossil fuel combustion generates many harmful pollutants, including fine particulates, which have been linked to <a href="https://theconversation.com/heart-attacks-cancer-dementia-premature-deaths-4-essential-reads-on-the-health-effects-driving-epas-new-fine-particle-air-pollution-standard-223057">a range of negative health effects</a>. The EPA estimates that air pollution reductions triggered by the new rule will generate <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/420f24016.pdf">US$13 billion in annual health benefits</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/C4QmEsvutYQ/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Building confidence in batteries</h2>
<p>One important feature of the new rule is that for the first time, the EPA has set forth explicit requirements for monitoring and ensuring the durability of EV batteries. This step recognizes that battery longevity is a pivotal factor in EVs’ value proposition and environmental impact. </p>
<p>The regulations delineate two primary benchmarks: The battery must retain at least 80% of its original capacity at five years or 62,000 miles and at least 70% after eight years or 100,000 miles. These requirements will help to standardize the <a href="https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last">wide variability in battery degradation</a> between different vehicle models. </p>
<p>Importantly, the health of batteries must be tracked via a monitor in the car that measures what is known as the vehicle’s state of certified energy – the amount of battery capacity left at full charge after accounting for degradation – and displays it to the driver. EV owners will have constant information about the health of their battery, expressed as a percentage of what the battery had when it was brand new. This feature will be especially useful for people buying used EVs, since it will help them assess how much battery power the car still has at the time of purchase.</p>
<p>These and other battery durability and warranty requirements are likely to play a pivotal role in the EV market, influencing both manufacturers’ engineering choices and consumers’ purchasing decisions. By setting clear standards, the EPA is driving the industry toward more robust and reliable battery technologies, which could enhance the overall attractiveness of EVs and accelerate their market penetration.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Biden speaks to reporters from the wheel of a new pickup truck." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Joe Biden, a self-described ‘car guy,’ drives a Ford F-150 Lightning electric truck on May 18, 2021, in Dearborn, Mich.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ElectricVehiclesFederalFleet/8d61a7311ee84326b163a1cbd0ac7219/photo">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span>
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<h2>When is a plug-in running on electricity?</h2>
<p>Another item in the new regulations shows how the EPA has attempted to address manufacturers’ concerns. Since plug-in hybrids, or PHEVs, can run on either electricity or gasoline, regulators need some basis for determining how often they rely on one versus the other. The number that experts use in these situations, called the utility factor, is a calculation of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj14110301">what fraction of the time a PHEV drives on electricity</a>.</p>
<p>Many researchers had argued that the EPA had <a href="https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/real-world-phev-us-dec22.pdf">overestimated the utility factor</a> and warned that inflating the extent to which PHEVs operated on electric power could lead to regulations that put too much priority on these vehicles. Under the newly finalized regulations, the agency has adjusted the calculation to reflect a better understanding of how these vehicles operate in the real world. </p>
<p>For example, the adjustment in the utility factor for a model like the Prius Prime, with a 48-mile electric range, reduces the assumption of electric travel from the previous 65%-70% to about 55%. Similarly, for the Jeep Wrangler 4xe, with a 21-mile range, the utility factor is adjusted from around 40% to 30%.</p>
<p>These changes provide a more accurate reflection of PHEVs’ contribution to reducing emissions, which helps ensure that the regulatory framework aligns better with actual usage patterns. And by modifying the utility factor, the EPA may nudge manufacturers toward prioritizing more efficient PHEVs or shifting their focus toward fully electric vehicles. </p>
<h2>A clear signal to carmakers</h2>
<p>Changing auto efficiency standards has traditionally meant making incremental improvements in vehicle technologies, such as increases in engine efficiency. This new rule is much more aggressive and has a clear goal of driving a major shift toward EVs and other clean car types. </p>
<p>These standards can help companies set goals for the future by providing clear targets. Failing to meet EPA rules can <a href="https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/clean-air-act-vehicle-and-engine-enforcement-case-resolutions">incur tough penalties</a>. </p>
<p>In my view, these standards are an important step in the right direction to achieve U.S. climate goals, and they will serve as a stick that complements the monetary carrots funded by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-new-incentives-for-clean-energy-arent-enough-the-inflation-reduction-act-was-just-the-first-step-now-the-hard-work-begins-188693">Inflation Reduction Act</a>, which authorized tax credits and subsidies for EVs and charging stations. The new rule may not be a perfect policy from a pure climate perspective, but given automakers’ concerns and the political sensitivity of this issue, I believe it hits the target.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225986/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Jenn receives or has received funding from the Department of Energy, the Sloan Foundation, and the Transportation Research Board. He was a contributing author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2021 Sixth Assessment Report.</span></em></p>The new rule isn’t a mandate for electric vehicles, but it will sharply increase their market share over the coming decade.Alan Jenn, Associate Professional Researcher in Transportation, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193152024-02-13T13:22:08Z2024-02-13T13:22:08ZElectric vehicles are suddenly hot − but the industry has traveled a long road to relevance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571986/original/file-20240129-29-fcru7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C24%2C8155%2C5248&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Everything old is new again.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/man-inserts-a-power-cord-into-an-electric-car-for-royalty-free-image/1354070884">Simon Skafar/E+/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2023, <a href="https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2024-01-16-Americans-Buy-Nearly-1-2-Million-Electric-Vehicles-to-Hit-Record-in-2023,-According-to-Latest-Kelley-Blue-Book-Data">more than 7%</a> of cars sold in the United States were electric vehicles. In some parts of the world, such as Norway, EVs make up <a href="https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/evs-now-make-20-norways-cars">a whopping 20%</a> of cars on the road. In California, where I live, <a href="https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/California-EV-FE-Survey-Report-3.8.21.pdf">almost 60% of people</a> looking for a car in 2021 said they would at least consider getting an EV.</p>
<p>This upswing in demand comes after years of flagging sales. As recently as 2010, fewer than 100,000 cars on U.S. roads were EVs. That number <a href="https://www.orocobre.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/FINAL_EV_Sales_Update_April2019.pdf">crossed the 1 million mark</a> in 2018, up more than 80% over the prior year.</p>
<p>What explains this seemingly unexpected surge over the past few years? </p>
<p>The key word here is “seemingly.” And the answer reveals <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Electric-Vehicle-Burden-History/dp/0813528097">an interesting history</a> that most people are completely unaware of.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.marshall.usc.edu/personnel/hovig-tchalian">I teach entrepreneurship</a> at the USC Marshall School of Business, and I’ve been studying the EV market for more than a decade. When I ask students, “How long have EVs been commercially available?” most of them will answer five years, or 10, perhaps 20. One person might point to an EV <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a36887553/gm-ev1-electric-car-technology/">launched by General Motors in the 1990s</a> whose name they can’t seem to remember. </p>
<p>But occasionally, a precocious person – usually in the back row – will raise a hand and answer, “Since the early 1900s.” </p>
<p>That’s almost the right answer. </p>
<h2>Electric vehicles and the long road to adoption</h2>
<p>EVs are a new old technology. Most people don’t know that they’ve been commercially available since <a href="https://www.energy.gov/timeline-history-electric-car">as far back as the 1890s</a>. Back then, there was a fight over how best to power a car, or what business professors would call a battle for “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2225">dominant design</a>.” The options were internal combustion engines, electric and – as unlikely as it sounds – steam. Yes, that’s how long it’s been since that battle was first fought.</p>
<p>Almost 40% of vehicles on the road <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/automobile/Early-electric-automobiles">in the early 1900s were electric</a>. But after Henry Ford’s first Model T, which used an internal combustion engine, left the production line in 1908, they all but disappeared. EVs have been trying to make a comeback ever since. Like the precocious person in the back of my classroom knows, they’ve been the “next big thing” for more than 100 years.</p>
<p>So, what factors help explain why EVs lost the battle for dominant design back then – and why do they appear to have a fighting chance today?</p>
<h2>The ‘cool factor’ − but so much more</h2>
<p>Those who point to the Tesla Roadster as the first modern EV point to its reputation as fun, sporty and cool. And they’re right: The Tesla Roadster did <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a15150030/2008-tesla-roadster-road-test/">make EVs cool</a> – if expensive, at over US$100,000 dollars at its launch in 2008.</p>
<p>But there are many more factors that explain the rise in demand and, more importantly, broad adoption of EVs. </p>
<p>One reason for the rise in demand starting in about 2010 is better and <a href="https://www.kantar.com/inspiration/research-services/understanding-consumer-attitudes-towards-electric-vehicles-pf">more widely available charging infrastructure</a>. In the U.S. in 2009, there were fewer than 500 public and private charging stations nationwide; today, there are <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/data">more than 100 times</a> as many. That has helped allay consumers’ “range anxiety,” that nagging fear that you’ll run out of “juice” before you can get to a charging station.</p>
<p>But many other factors are also at play: the right set of <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/charging-into-the-future-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles.htm">models and options made available by manufacturers</a>, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320176240_Does_Driving_Range_of_Electric_Vehicles_Influence_Electric_Vehicle_Adoption">improved battery and charging technology</a> and the right mix of government regulations and incentives. All have led to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2016.1217282">healthy consumer demand</a>.</p>
<h2>Technology adoption: It takes a village − and time</h2>
<p>Apart from those technical and economic factors, current studies and my own ongoing research also suggest that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2014.10.010">social conversation around EVs</a> – what everyone in the world says and thinks about them – has also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100364">taken a turn for the better</a>.</p>
<p>Technology adoption is influenced by what’s known as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.09.002">peer effects</a>” – the desire to compare oneself with others. That’s because people engage in “social comparison” by paying attention to what others like them are doing and, more importantly, how those other people might view their behavior. The same is true, for instance, of solar panel adoption, another technology that, like EVs, has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103293">both personal and social benefits</a>.</p>
<p>As I noted earlier, the coolness factor has a positive impact on EV adoption. Driving a cool car matters because that coolness is visible. And when a car has been uncool for so long, a fundamental – and positive – change in its public perception can substantially affect <a href="https://www.evconnect.com/blog/top-factors-affecting-ev-adoption">demand and adoption</a>.</p>
<p>My research and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-cars-pass-a-crucial-tipping-point-in-23-countries?sref=Z0b6TmHW">other studies</a> suggest that a turning point may have come in the mid- to late 2010s, when both <a href="https://www.kantar.com/inspiration/research-services/understanding-consumer-attitudes-towards-electric-vehicles-pf">public attitudes</a> and <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/charging-into-the-future-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles.htm">charging technology and infrastructure</a> began to improve. It <a href="http://doi.org/10.3390/su9101783">takes a village to birth a market</a>. </p>
<p>The challenge of EV adoption is a reminder that many of our technologies aren’t just tools or devices – they’re ways of getting things done. Technology comes from the Greek word “techne,” which means a practice, a set of habits and a way to accomplish a goal.</p>
<p>Much of our technology, from early word processing software to today’s streaming services, depends on collective social behaviors and how they change – or, in many cases, don’t.</p>
<p>For example, the standard “qwerty” keyboard is not intuitive. But because it set the standard, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1805621">it became the dominant design</a>. It’s now too efficient, and too socially embedded, to allow for easy replacement.</p>
<p>New technologies can’t even look too different from what we’re used to or they would make it <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/3094872">too hard for us to adopt them</a>. That’s why EV charging plugs look like – you guessed it – gas pump nozzles.</p>
<p>In other words, cool technologies need to be in line with existing behaviors and customs, or they’ll have to travel a long road toward establishing new ones. Without this alignment, new tech will sit on a shelf for a long time but never succeed – like EVs almost did.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated on Feb. 20, 2024, to clarify that 20% of automobiles in use in Norway are EVs.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219315/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hovig Tchalian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This seemingly cutting-edge technology isn’t entirely new to our century.Hovig Tchalian, Assistant Professor of Entrepreneurship, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2160212023-10-24T23:31:18Z2023-10-24T23:31:18ZWill drivers who paid Victoria’s electric vehicle tax be able to get their money back?<p>Electric vehicle owners in Victoria couldn’t be blamed for wondering if they might get their money back after the <a href="https://www.hcourt.gov.au/assets/publications/judgment-summaries/2023/hca-30-2023-10-18.pdf">High Court</a> found the state’s zero and low-emission vehicle road-user charge to be unconstitutional.</p>
<p>The government, facing massive budgetary pressures - don’t mention the <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/victoria-2026-commonwealth-games-taxpayers-to-pay-380-million-for-no-event/0a979e4d-affe-4fb8-a84c-2f4ca5d97db8">Commonwealth Games</a> - might also have its own questions to ask about the court putting an end to the tax.</p>
<p>Better known as the “EV tax” (and dubbed by its critics as the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/worlds-worst-ev-policy-scrapped-by-high-court/">worst electric vehicle policy</a> in the world), the charge meant that a registered owner of an electric or hydrogen vehicle had to pay the state government 2.8 cents for each kilometre that the vehicle travelled on public roads. Plug-in hybrid vehicle owners were charged at a lower rate of 2.3 cents.</p>
<h2>What the court found</h2>
<p>A majority of the justices held that this state “charge” was, in reality, an excise tax. Under the Constitution, only the federal parliament may impose excise taxes.</p>
<p>Victoria has, as a result, had to stop collecting this tax. Other states that were thinking of imposing such taxes have also put their plans on ice.</p>
<p>The state reportedly had hoped to raise <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/victoria-aiming-to-raise-30-million-per-year-from-ev-road-tax">$30 million </a>through this tax over a four-year period. Since its introduction in 2021, about $5 million has been collected.</p>
<p>So, what happens with this money now?</p>
<h2>Is there a legal obligation for the state to pay a refund?</h2>
<p>One might think that, if tax may be exacted only under valid laws, and a law is shown to have been invalid from its inception, surely it would be axiomatic, if not common sense, that it would be necessary to return the money?</p>
<p>You could be forgiven for thinking so.</p>
<p>However, as has been observed: <a href="https://www.enotes.com/topics/oliver-twist/quotes/law-ass-idiot">the law is an ass</a> (at least sometimes).</p>
<p>To get technical, the availability of restitution from public authorities (for instance, in relation to invalid demands for money) is an intractable issue which has been the subject of much debate.</p>
<p>Specifically, the legal position in Australia on the recovery of unconstitutional taxes remains unsettled.</p>
<h2>The law can get tricky</h2>
<p>There currently appears to be no general right to a refund based solely on the invalid nature of a tax.</p>
<p>Oh, if only things were that straightforward.</p>
<p>Instead, a claimant is required to establish that, for example, the tax was paid due to a mistake of law (for instance, as to the validity or applicability of the purported tax).</p>
<p>Or that the tax was paid because of legally unfounded threats made to the taxpayer by the authorities.</p>
<p>However, with $378 being about the average amount of the tax paid by each vehicle operator per year, litigation to recover the tax might prove to be uneconomical.</p>
<p>The case-by-case nature of the enquiry required into whether a particular claimant actually made a mistake or was in fact baselessly threatened, might also make a class action difficult.</p>
<p>But wait, there’s more! Victoria’s statute of limitations states:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>despite anything to the contrary in any other Act, if money paid by way of tax or purported tax is recoverable because of the invalidity of an Act or provision of an Act, a proceeding for the recovery of that money must (whether the payment was made voluntarily or under compulsion) be commenced within 12 months after the date of payment.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Put simply, this means that, even if a vehicle operator has satisfactory evidence to establish a legal entitlement to restitution of the invalid tax paid, recovery of the full amount of the tax that has been paid over the years may not be possible.</p>
<p>I say “may”, if only because the validity of this provision of the statute is itself not beyond constitutional doubt.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-good-the-high-court-overturned-victorias-questionable-ev-tax-but-theres-a-sting-in-the-tail-215985">It's good the High Court overturned Victoria's questionable EV tax. But there's a sting in the tail</a>
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<h2>All is not lost</h2>
<p>Fortunately for those who’ve paid the tax, Victoria’s road transport regulator, VicRoads, has reportedly said that, although specifics regarding the timeline and amount are still to be determined, a refund process will definitely be put in place.</p>
<p>Otherwise, Victoria may not be able to have its excise but might, effectively, still get to keep it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216021/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eu-Jin Teo is an independent external member of the Law Institute of Victoria's Taxation and Revenue Committee, State Taxes Committee, and Administrative Review and Constitutional Law Committee. He does not own a motor vehicle of any description.</span></em></p>Electric vehicle owners appear to have no clear right to a refund despite the High Court determining that the tax charged by Victoria was invalid.Eu-Jin Teo, Senior Lecturer, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140242023-09-21T17:00:08Z2023-09-21T17:00:08ZWhy delaying the ban on petrol and diesel cars won’t slow UK’s shift to electric vehicles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549604/original/file-20230921-19-nud0c8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8256%2C5499&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-electric-car-charger-female-silhouette-1812967387">Husjur02/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK has delayed its ban on the sale of new cars which burn petrol or diesel in internal combustion engines (ICE) from 2030 to 2035. </p>
<p>In some ways, this is no surprise: the original plan was to ban them from 2040, a deadline <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/15/car-industry-lobbied-uk-government-delay-ban-petrol-diesel-cars">brought forward</a> by the previous prime minister, Boris Johnson, in 2020. The new delay, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-confirms-hes-delaying-ban-on-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-and-boosts-boiler-upgrade-scheme-12965656">confirmed this week by Rishi Sunak</a>, had been <a href="https://www.am-online.com/news/latest-news/2023/03/28/will-uk-follow-eu-by-lifting-2035-diesel-and-petrol-new-car-sales-ban">rumoured</a> in August.</p>
<p>But the decision still sends a confusing message from Sunak’s government, particularly for carmakers who on average take <a href="https://www.cargroup.org/automotive-product-development-cycles-and-the-need-for-balance-with-the-regulatory-environment/#:%7E:text=This%20move%20back%20to%20car,22%25%20faster%20development%20cycle%20than">six-to-seven years</a> to develop new vehicles, and need time to <a href="https://www.ford.co.uk/experience-ford/news/ford-invest-in-halewood--plant-to-scale-up-electric-vehicle-range">invest in new factories</a> and train workers, as well as make the cars themselves.</p>
<p>For these manufacturers, certainty is key to their business. If they gear up to produce an all-electric fleet and suddenly buyers still want ICE vehicles and they haven’t produced enough, they will have stockpiles of unwanted cars which may have to be <a href="https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/what-happens-to-new-cars-that-dont-sell">sold at a loss</a>.</p>
<p>However, the good news is the switch to electric vehicles (EVs) is already well under way in the UK. Research suggests it may now be unstoppable – regardless of what the government does.</p>
<h2>How new technologies replace old ones</h2>
<p>Any new technology follows a cycle of adoption that is difficult for government intervention to interrupt. The exception is for fast-acting bans, which attempt to immediately remove products deemed dangerous or harmful from a market. A successful example is the UK’s ban on highly realistic <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/jun/06/ukcrime.ukguns">imitation firearms</a>.</p>
<p>Grants or other incentives to buy new technologies are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/plug-in-grant-for-cars-to-end-as-focus-moves-to-improving-electric-vehicle-charging">somewhat effective at increasing their adoption</a> at first, but these incentives are generally withdrawn once the product is established in a market. </p>
<p>The rate at which new technologies are adopted can usually be mapped on to fairly predictable trajectories. American sociologist Everett Rogers plotted it on an S-shaped curve he called the <a href="https://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/mph-modules/sb/behavioralchangetheories/behavioralchangetheories4.html">diffusion of innovations</a>. We can see that this shape holds true for <a href="https://www.asymco.com/2013/11/06/the-diffusion-of-iphones-as-a-learning-process/">smartphones</a>.</p>
<p>A look at the adoption of EVs over time reveals the UK is in <a href="https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/electric-cars/choosing/road-to-electric/">a rapid ramping-up phase</a> that will naturally deliver an almost complete switch to EVs for every new car purchase by the 2030s, regardless of legislation. Already, we have gone from EVs having a less than 0.5% market share in 2016 to <a href="https://www.zap-map.com/ev-stats/ev-market">over 20% in 2023</a>. This trend mirrors that of smartphones, which went from <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/">a few million</a> when the iPhone was released to almost complete market penetration in under a decade – and all without a ban on non-smartphones.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VVXuN2drSpg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An explanation of the law of diffusion of innovation.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Phones and cars aren’t a perfect comparison – generally, cars have a longer lifecycle. But the similar pattern in sales growth should still hold true once there is enough data on the EV curve. In fact, there’s a credible risk that ICE motorists will soon face the same problem EV drivers have had in recent years: difficulty refuelling.</p>
<p>While many drivers cite a <a href="https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/fleet-industry-news/2020/03/19/lack-of-residential-charges-are-a-major-barrier-to-ev-adoption">lack of chargers</a> as a barrier to buying an EV, as ICE car ownership drops the number of petrol filling stations will drop too. In fact, data suggests their numbers are <a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/5992/fuel-and-petrol-stations-in-the-uk/#topicOverview">already declining</a> in the UK.</p>
<p>Another reason the UK ban will not slow the adoption of EVs is the fact <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/">it is only a part</a> (albeit a significant one) of the <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/257653/passenger-car-sales-by-region/">wider European market</a> that generally buys the same specification of vehicle (as opposed to other markets which have differing tastes and products). Most manufacturers will be developing their EVs to meet the whole market’s needs, and many of the countries in that market, such as Ireland, Iceland, Sweden and the Netherlands, are <a href="https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/eu-co2-FS5-jun2021.pdf">sticking to 2030</a>. Norway <a href="https://electrek.co/2021/09/23/norway-bans-gas-cars-in-2025-but-trends-point-toward-100-ev-sales-as-early-as-april/">has picked 2025</a> as its deadline.</p>
<p>If you are a car manufacturer working to a bloc sales model that averages around 2030 (remember, they have been planning on 2030 for the UK too), then you are not going to put resources into producing more of a technology that is being phased out and cannot be sold throughout most of that bloc.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two workers lean over an EV battery pack on a factory assembly line." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549609/original/file-20230921-22-9m2i92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549609/original/file-20230921-22-9m2i92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549609/original/file-20230921-22-9m2i92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549609/original/file-20230921-22-9m2i92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549609/original/file-20230921-22-9m2i92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549609/original/file-20230921-22-9m2i92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549609/original/file-20230921-22-9m2i92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carmakers are unlikely to pay much heed to the UK’s policy change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/inside-electric-vehicle-battery-pack-shop-2112208565">NamLong Nguyen/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Will this affect buyer preferences?</h2>
<p>It may feel that this kind of anti-climate action will make people think twice about buying an EV. But the reasons that people choose an EV are rarely, if ever, due to phase-out targets. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/travel/articles/32259-why-buy-electric-car?redirect_from=%2Ftopics%2Ftravel%2Farticles-reports%2F2020%2F09%2F30%2Fwhy-buy-electric-car">YouGov survey from 2020</a> stated that 51% bought one for environmental reasons, 31% for lower running costs, and 29% for “future-proofing”. The latter reason may have been driven by a fear of ICE purchases being banned, but it doesn’t explicitly say so. And even if such a concern influenced their decision, it was still outweighed by costs and the environment.</p>
<p>Furthermore, only just behind this motivation, at 25%, was the tax advantage of buying an EV. The government has not given any indication it will lower taxes on ICE cars, so this advantage remains.</p>
<p>While Sunak’s decision to delay the ban may allow some to breathe a sigh of (polluted) relief, all the data and theory in this area indicates that the inevitable switch to EV shows no sign of abating – among consumers or manufacturers.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Stacey receives funding from European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).</span></em></p>Research on how people adopt new technologies suggests the transition is now well under way.Tom Stacey, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099662023-08-18T06:20:10Z2023-08-18T06:20:10ZWhy Indonesia needs a long-term plan beyond subsidies to electrify its transport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541705/original/file-20230808-29-vi1j62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electric vehicle charging station in Malang City in Indonesia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Ari Bowo Sucipto/Antara)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sales of electric vehicles in Indonesia grew by an astonishing <a href="https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2023/06/20/setelah-ada-insentif-penjualan-mobil-listrik-naik-lagi-pada-mei-2023">680% in May 2023</a> compared to the year before, following the recent implementation of <a href="https://policy.thinkbluedata.com/node/4175#:%7E:text=Presidential%20Regulation%20No.-,55%2F2019%20on%20Accelerating%20Programs%20of%20Battery%20Electric%20Vehicles%20for,at%20expanding%20the%20charging%20infrastructure.">government subsidies</a>.</p>
<p>Since March this year, different ministries have been issuing regulations on <a href="https://money.kompas.com/read/2023/03/20/235100926/sri-mulyani-rogoh-rp-7-triliun-apbn-untuk-subsidi-motor-listrik">Rp7 trillion</a> (about US$456 million) worth of subsidies for people <a href="https://www.kemenkeu.go.id/informasi-publik/publikasi/berita-utama/Dorong-Pemanfaatan-KBLBB">buying</a> or <a href="https://ebtke.esdm.go.id/post/2023/03/31/3457/telah.terbit.permen.esdm.nomor.3.tahun.2023.tentang.pedoman.umum.bantuan.pemerintah.dalam.program.konversi.sepeda.motor.dengan.penggerak.motor.bakar.menjadi.sepeda.motor.listrik.berbasis.baterai">converting</a> electric motorbikes in 2023 and 2024, as well as <a href="https://setkab.go.id/pemerintah-luncurkan-insentif-pembelian-kendaraan-listrik-roda-empat-dan-bus/">reduced taxes for electric car purchases</a>.</p>
<p>While those booming sales seem like good news, I believe the subsidy program is a temporary solution to push for widespread electric vehicle adoption. </p>
<p>In the long run, I – as a researcher in energy system analysis with more than ten years of experience in the energy sector – argue Indonesia must set a long-term plan to electrify its transport sector with much higher renewable energy.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segy.2023.100102">My research</a> concludes that Indonesia will benefit in at least two ways from setting a long-term plan. First, the country can significantly decrease energy subsidies by reducing fossil fuel consumption in both the transport and electricity sectors. Second, it will reduce carbon dioxide emissions from both sectors.</p>
<h2>We need more renewables to power electric vehicles</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.255">A research review</a> showed subsidy programs are an effective tool to boost electric vehicle ownership in select countries, such as the USA and Norway. </p>
<p>That 2017 review suggested one effective approach was to provide upfront grants or exemptions from value-added tax or purchase taxes. These incentives can encourage the ownership of emerging vehicles and promote their adoption in the market.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542702/original/file-20230814-20-gicn6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An electric car at Toyota Indonesia’s booth at Indonesia International Motor Show 2022, JiExpo Kemayoran Jakarta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Toto Santiko Budi/Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Subsidising private electric vehicles is considered “low-hanging fruit” (an easily achieved task) for the Indonesian government to cut carbon dioxide emissions. That’s because private road vehicles <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112135">consumed more than 70%</a> of the total oil consumption in Indonesia’s transport sector. </p>
<p>In addition, electric vehicles are generally <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021">2-3 times more energy-efficient</a> than conventional vehicles. Electric vehicles have more efficient powertrains, using electric motors that convert a higher percentage of battery energy into useful power for driving. In contrast, conventional vehicles experience energy losses through heat and friction during combustion.</p>
<p>The problem is that Indonesia’s electricity sector still heavily relies on coal, which accounted for <a href="https://www.esdm.go.id/id/publikasi/handbook-of-energy-economic-statistics-of-indonesia">62% of total electricity generation in 2022</a>, meaning that electric vehicles on Indonesia’s streets are still dominantly powered by fossil fuels. </p>
<p>That’s why it is important for the Indonesian government to ensure subsidies for electric vehicles align with wider plans for Indonesia’s energy transition in the transport sector. </p>
<p>This includes plans to electrify all transport means and to use alternative fuels, such as hydrogen and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/electrofuels">electro fuels.</a></p>
<p>To achieve wider plans in the transport sector, Indonesia needs to do more to boost renewable energy in its electricity sector. </p>
<p>At the moment, the government is still struggling to meet <a href="https://gatrik.esdm.go.id/assets/uploads/download_index/files/38622-ruptl-pln-2021-2030.pdf">the country’s target of 23% renewable energy share by 2025</a>.</p>
<h2>Subsidy debates</h2>
<p>Indonesia’s subsidies for electric vehicles has sparked debate. One of the main arguments against such subsidies is its <a href="https://money.kompas.com/read/2023/03/20/235100926/sri-mulyani-rogoh-rp-7-triliun-apbn-untuk-subsidi-motor-listrik">Rp7 trillion cost</a> to the Indonesian government’s tight budget.</p>
<p>Any new subsidy is always an additional cost for any government. In addition to that, <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/ekonomi/2023/05/21/sebagian-masyarakat-tolak-pemberian-subsidi-untuk-pembelian-mobil-listrik">the subsidy only targets high-income groups</a> as they are the ones who can afford buying this kind of vehicle.</p>
<p>Such subsidies can also disrupt the market by artificially increasing demand for electric vehicles. </p>
<p>It is important to note that there was already a high demand for electric vehicles in Indonesia even before subsidies were distributed, as <a href="https://jelajahekonomi.kontan.co.id/ekonomihijau/news/diserbu-pembeli-daftar-tunggu-pesan-mobil-listrik-hyundai-ioniq-5-semakin-panjang">indicated by the long waiting list</a> of customers eager to purchase them. </p>
<h2>3 pillars of a long-term plan</h2>
<p>We should not view subsidies as an effective and sustainable solution in the long run for the transport sector’s energy transition.</p>
<p>Instead, Indonesia should create its long-term plan based on <a href="https://www.transformative-mobility.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/ASI_TUMI_SUTP_iNUA_No-9_April-2019-Mykme0.pdf">three pillars</a>.</p>
<p><strong>1) Avoid:</strong> Indonesia should make its transportation sector more efficient by making residential, work and leisure areas in every city closer to each other. Therefore, the need for motorised travel and the trip length can be reduced.</p>
<p><strong>2) Shift:</strong> Indonesia must encourage the public to use more eco-friendly transportation, by promoting public transportation or active transport such as cycling and walking.</p>
<p>Several studies across the globe, such as in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153872">Poland</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123048">China</a>, show bus electrification can greatly reduce carbon dioxide emissions in big cities. Furthermore, electric buses will be more cost-effective than conventional buses in the medium and long-term. </p>
<p><strong>3) Improve:</strong> Indonesia should refine its public transportation to be more environmentally friendly and attractive. Transport electrification is the key in this pillar.</p>
<p>Using renewable energy-based electricity to power the transport sector will play a crucial role in a fully decarbonised Indonesian energy system. This will also be for the greater good of the Indonesian people and the environment. </p>
<p>Providing subsidies for electric vehicles should be only the first small step in a long-term plan to
electrify Indonesia’s transport – driven increasingly by renewables, not coal-fired electricity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209966/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yudha Irmansyah Siregar is affiliated with Europa-Universität Flensburg. He receives funding from DAAD (German Academic Exchange Service).</span></em></p>Subsidies for electric motorbikes and cars should be just the first small step in a long-term plan to electrify Indonesia’s transport – driven increasingly by renewables, not coal-fired electricity.Yudha Irmansyah Siregar, PhD Candidate, Europa-Universität FlensburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2029952023-05-25T13:51:35Z2023-05-25T13:51:35ZGreenwashing: energy companies make false claims about sustainability – they should be held to account<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523404/original/file-20230428-14-ecf5ph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C22%2C4905%2C3253&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A farmer walks on a marshy shore of a river polluted by oil spills in Nigeria’s Niger delta, region.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/farmer-walks-on-a-marshy-shore-of-a-river-polluted-by-oil-news-photo/1234984177?adppopup=true">Pius Utomi Ekpei/ AFP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Peacebuilding</p>
<p>Companies implement corporate social responsibility (CSR) as a way to present an environmentally responsible image and therefore gain legitimacy in the eyes of their stakeholders. But some companies don’t actually live up to their claims. </p>
<p>Some businesses claim to be doing good for the environment, but don’t. Often they undertake green projects only for marketing purposes or to brand their products. Or they do only what legislation and stakeholder pressure force them to.</p>
<p>But others use CSR to achieve long-term competitive advantages. They see these “sustainable strategies” as a core part of their overall corporate strategy. They align their social commitments with their business objectives. They commit to responsible business practices that reduce their carbon footprint and minimise negative environmental impact.</p>
<p>To understand better the strategic corporate social responsibility, we <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/83782">analysed</a> relevant studies and theories on CSR strategies. We concluded that companies disclose positive communication while they undertake irresponsible practices. We distinguish two types of CSR strategies:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>those introduced to cope with environmental and social legislation and the stakeholders’ pressure (responsive CSR); and </p></li>
<li><p>strategies considering CSR as a differentiation process aligning social, environmental and financial performances.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In a second study, we <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/83415">examined</a> how corporate lobbying could help businesses overcome their irresponsible actions and improve their CSR strategy, specifically after a greenwashing scandal. We explained how this type of incident could bring opportunities to meet stakeholders’ calls for action and how lobbying could drive a cleaner market image. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/83415">looked at</a> how big firms such as <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0263596">ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and BP</a> in the energy sector use CSR to legitimise their bad practices. An example is <a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/greenwashing/fossil-fuel-greenwash-since-launch-of-green-claims-code/#:%7E:text=The%20fossil%20fuel%20industry's%20insidious%20record%20of%20greenwashing&text=A%202021%20study%20found%20that,action%20over%20misleading%20environmental%20claims.">posting misleading messaging on the social media</a> about investing in low carbon projects, yet <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/09/23/shell-bp-exxon-seized-emails-reveal-deceptive-climate-tactics-and-greenwashing">increasing exploration</a> rather than decreasing it.</p>
<p>The energy sector is among the biggest polluters in the world. It <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector#energy-electricity-heat-and-transport-73-2">produced</a> 73.2% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2016.</p>
<p>We found that energy companies used CSR projects to mask their environmentally destructive practices. They also misled the public about environmental achievements – a practice referred to as greenwashing. The studies also set out why, and how, civil society can play an active role in promoting sustainable practices.</p>
<h2>The studies</h2>
<p>Based on a survey of the literature reviewing different methodologies of more than 100 studies, we conclude that it is frequent that businesses in different sectors use elementary strategies to comply with social and environmental regulations. They aim to gain legitimacy in the stakeholders’ eyes without making corporate social responsibility a cornerstone of their overall strategy. </p>
<p>Secondly, the studies address how ambiguous claims, sophisticated euphemisms, or pure lies have become frequent in business communication specifically on sustainable and corporate social responsibility activities. </p>
<p>Thirdly, the studies explain how companies accused of greenwashing (misleading the public about environmental achievements) could use the scandals to rethink their social and environmental strategies and introduce effective changes. </p>
<h2>Misleading information</h2>
<p>Energy companies in 55 countries are committed to the Paris Agreement and a net-zero emission world, aiming at keeping global heating under 1.5°C. But <a href="https://oversightdemocrats.house.gov/news/press-releases/oversight-committee-releases-new-documents-showing-big-oil-s-greenwashing">a US congressional investigation</a> that analysed 200 pages of internal corporate memos found oil giants <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/09/23/shell-bp-exxon-seized-emails-reveal-deceptive-climate-tactics-and-greenwashing#:%7E:text=A%20US%20congressional%20investigation%20into,and%20joke%20about%20climate%20collapse%5D">such as Shell, Chevron and ExxonMobil</a> were paying lip service to the agreement. </p>
<p>We can read, for instance:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Shell has no immediate plans to move to a <a href="https://www.desmog.com/2023/02/09/clientearth-lawsuit-uk-shell-board-directors-energy-transition/">net-zero emissions</a> portfolio over our investment horizon of 10-20 years. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>According to Richard Wiles, president of the Centre for Climate Integrity, these revelations are </p>
<blockquote>
<p>the latest evidence that oil giants keep <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/09/23/shell-bp-exxon-seized-emails-reveal-deceptive-climate-tactics-and-greenwashing#:%7E:text=Politicians%20and%20campaigners%20have%20slammed,the%20Center%20for%20Climate%20Integrity">lying</a> about their commitments to solve the climate crisis and should never be trusted by policymakers.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, we also argue that there are negative as well as potential positive outcomes from <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/83415">greenwashing</a>. </p>
<h2>Negatives and positives</h2>
<p>The negative effects of greenwashing, such as misleading and manipulating consumers, avoiding concrete actions and blocking green transition, can be significant.</p>
<p>The continuous exposure to green claims inspired by superficial green branding can <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/83782">shape</a> and establish new social norms. And <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JCM-06-2019-3257/full/html">research has found that</a>, greenwashing can ultimately undermine the establishment of sustainable social norms by eroding trust and credibility in green claims.</p>
<p>But there’s the potential for companies to use a negative situation as an opportunity to initiate positive changes. This is particularly the case when stakeholders, policy and market makers and researchers raise awareness of these practices. Consumers can call for more <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/83782">transparency</a> and hold companies more accountable when they misbehave. </p>
<p>The 2015 Volkswagen case is instructive. The US government found “irregularities” in tests measuring carbon dioxide emissions levels affecting thousands of cars produced by the German company. The <a href="https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/volkswagen-clean-air-act-civil-settlement">settlement</a> with the US Environmental Protection Agency pushed the company to invest in electric vehicle infrastructure and technology. Volkswagen has subsequently become a key player in the <a href="https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/new-auto-volkswagen-group-set-to-unleash-value-in-battery-electric-autonomous-mobility-world-7313">electric vehicle market</a>.</p>
<p>The public commitment made by companies can also inspire employees to work towards these goals and help to <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/83415">establish a standard</a> for corporate sustainability.</p>
<h2>Role of civil society</h2>
<p>The outcomes of greenwashing can be heavily influenced by civil society.</p>
<p>In February 2023, the international NGO Global Witness accused one of the largest oil company, Shell, of <a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/shell-faces-groundbreaking-complaint-misleading-us-authorities-and-investors-its-energy-transition-efforts/">misleading</a> the US authorities and investors on its green transition. In our <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/83415">study</a>, we conclude that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>when consumers become aware of socially irresponsible behaviour, their positive identification of the company is interrupted.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Shell disclosed in its 2021 annual report that 12% of its capital expenditure was dedicated to the development of renewable and green energy solutions. However, only 1.5% was used to develop solar and wind sources and power plants. Global Witness found that the company was undertaking climate-wrecking gas projects.</p>
<p>The NGO has lodged a complaint with the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/sec-stories/chair-gary-gensler-marks-2nd-year-sec">Securities and Exchange Commission</a> in the US to investigate Shell’s claims. </p>
<p>This is not a unique scandal in which Shell is involved. </p>
<p>A Dutch court in 2021 found Shell’s subsidiary responsible for the oil spills between 2004 and 2007 in Nigeria. It ordered the company to pay compensation to the four Nigerian farmers who initiated the lawsuit. Shell’s reputation was severely impaired. </p>
<p>The company has pledged to <a href="https://corpaccountabilitylab.org/calblog/2023/2/8/shell-agrees-to-pay-15-million-euros-to-nigerian-farmers-and-fishermen#:%7E:text=A%20historic%20settlement,compensation%20for%20the%20harm%20caused.">compensate</a> the Nigerian farmers with €15 million and install a leak detection system. </p>
<p>Shell also <a href="https://www.britishcycling.org.uk/about/article/20221017-about-bc-static-SHELL-UK-0">partnered</a> with an environmental activist think tank, British Cycling to deliver a green image and enhance the acceptance and desirability of its products and services. But, very quickly, British Cycling was <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/british-cycling-cycling-shell-british-friends-of-the-earth-b2199756.html">accused</a> of greenwashing. </p>
<p>Ordinary citizens have been part of the increase in greenwashing awareness. For instance, they have launched many environmental “name and shame” campaigns against giants. In July 2020, misleading communication by Air France about its CO₂-neutral flights was <a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/greve-a-air-france/vol-neutre-en-co2-la-petite-mention-d-air-france-qui-fait-tiquer-des-scientifiques_4058309.html">retweeted multiple times</a>. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>A carbon footprint can only be evaluated if the consequences and emissions associated with a range of technologies are taken into account. These range from raw material extraction to disposal or recycling. Many renewable energy technologies still rely to some extent on fossil fuels. It is essential to continuously improve their sustainability and efficiency to achieve a low carbon future. </p>
<p>Many businesses are taking advantage of this complexity and marketing to greenwash their business models without making significant changes.</p>
<p>To combat this, the following is needed:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>transparency </p></li>
<li><p>effective regulation</p></li>
<li><p>monitoring </p></li>
<li><p>a genuine and proactive environmental approach to corporate and social responsibility projects.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202995/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Energy firms are likely to lie about their corporate social responsibility to the environment. Their deception can be turned around for good if they are held accountable.Ouidad Yousfi, Associate Professor of Finance, Université de MontpellierMaha El Kateb, Ph.D candidate, Université de MontpellierLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2047902023-05-03T17:16:23Z2023-05-03T17:16:23ZHow electric and automated cars are aggravating motion sickness<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/pourquoi-a-t-on-le-mal-des-transports-et-comment-sen-debarrasser-117116">Around 25-30% of the population</a> regularly suffers from motion sickness - a figure which some reckon to be conservative. Symptoms of this poorly understood illness include nausea, sweating, pallor, hypothermia, headaches and vomiting. Mildly affected patients might also experience drowsiness, apathy or decreased cognitive abilities. It is estimated 60 to 70% of travellers will suffer from it at some point.</p>
<p>Motion sickness is experienced <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/001401399184730">most commonly in cars</a>, giving rise to the term car sickness. Passengers are <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/1915252/">prone to feeling sick because they are deprived of the capacity to anticipate trajectories</a>, in contrast to drivers.</p>
<p>One would have thought that, in more than a century of automobile development, the issue of carsickness should have been be solved. But that is anything but the case. As road vehicles continue to undergo technological metamorphosis, upheavals such as the electrification, digitalisation and automation of vehicles come with benefits - and issues.</p>
<p>In fact, some technological advances may create or worsen the feeling of imbalance and prevent vehicle occupants from anticipating the itinerary. As a result, they increase the risk of undergoing sickness symptoms more frequently. Below are those whose effects are already documented.</p>
<h2>Vehicle electrification: fewer landmarks and more sudden movements</h2>
<p>By nature, an electric motor is more linear and quiet than a combustion engine. This advantage has the downside of preventing certain car users from assimilating the movement of the vehicle. For example, whereas we would associate <a href="http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:91-diss-20220309-1615905-1-0">acceleration with the engine revving</a> in classic cars, electric cars suddenly deprive us of this reference point. Also gone are the combustion engine’s vibrations, which <a href="https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-vestibular-research/ves00541">some perceive as soothing</a>.</p>
<p>The use of regenerative braking, which captures the kinetic energy from braking and converts it into the electrical power that charges the vehicle’s high voltage battery, can also upset passengers’ balance. The decelerations induced by this system are usually <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnsys.2022.866503/full">low frequency</a>, which is typical of a sickness-inducing motion force.</p>
<h2>Digital interiors that encourage distraction</h2>
<p>Another technological advance inducing motion sickness is the growing presence of ever larger and numerous screens inside vehicles. These screens overburden users with visual information, which discourages them from looking outside. They thereby lose their ability to take in the ‘correct’ visual signals – i.e. the external view of the vehicle – which allow them to correctly perceive their position in space. That, in turn, induces sickness. </p>
<p>The rise of screens in cars is likely to increase in the coming years, including vehicles that could even feature screens on glass surfaces or offer on-board virtual reality experiences. This invasive environment can, in turn, impact upon passengers’ wellbeing. Indeed, the mere knowledge one is likely to suffer nausea from screens can stress vulnerable passengers, with research linking <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9925433/">up to 40% of motion sickness symptoms to passenger psychology</a>.</p>
<h2>Autonomous driving and lack of anticipation</h2>
<p>The race among car manufacturers to create the first fully-automated vehicle is also likely to worsen the problem. While today’s vehicles are only partially automated, in future, they will be able to pilot themselves. As mentioned above, this is problematic when we know the act of driving is the best way to anticipate trajectories and curb symptoms.</p>
<p>Moreover, the disappearance of the driving cockpit will make it possible to redesign vehicle interiors to become more welcoming, like a rolling living room. These new configurations will give passengers more freedom, allowing them for example to turn their seat rearwards-facing to chat with other occupants. However, in the collective unconscious, sitting with one’s back <a href="http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-030-27928-8_26">against the road is associated with the likeliness of becoming sick</a>. Although research has shown that it makes no difference with <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/366836220_Effect_of_Horizontal_Acceleration_and_Seat_Orientation_on_Motion_Sickness_in_Passenger_Cars">forward-facing orientations</a>, this is another idea that may constitute a psychological bias toward symptoms. </p>
<p>Another promise of the autonomous vehicle is to allow its passengers to devote “idle” travel time to productive tasks or entertainment. The increasing appeal of taxi and Uber travel, where users tend to gaze at their digital devices, goes hand in hand with this trend. Here again, such distractions <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259674103_Will_autonomous_vehicles_make_us_sick">deter passengers from engaging with the landscape</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, let us not forget the incidence of motion sickness ultimately remains moderate in non-automated cars because of drivers’ ability to adapt their driving style when their passengers report discomfort. This human dimension is set to disappear in autonomous vehicles, whose driving style will be less flexible and less natural than that of a human driver. </p>
<h2>Human beings as the main obstacle to technological advances?</h2>
<p>In the absence of effective means to mitigate motion sickness in cars, aggravated symptoms may ultimately lead consumers to <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-40503-2_10">reject such highly-evolved vehicles</a>. Considering the ethical, psychological and legal dimensions related to their development, it may be that human beings would become the main obstacle to the adoption of these new types of vehicles. </p>
<p>For these reasons, automotive manufacturers and suppliers have shown growing <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7166422">interest in this phenomenon</a> in recent years. Their purpose is to better understand it to alleviate it effectively - not out of public interest but because it could compromise the successful launch of their future products.</p>
<p>To date, the exact causes of motion sickness are still unclear, prompting industrial research to focus on how to limit its occurrence. Countermeasures are currently being researched. The latter include the use of <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9698244">visual</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0003687020300211">auditory</a> and <a href="https://journal.ump.edu.my/ijame/article/view/2629">tactile signals</a> to help users better perceive and anticipate the vehicle’s movements, but also the programming of a comfortable driving style that imitates that of a human being and limits sudden acceleration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204790/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Emond ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Smoother and quieter, the car of the future comes with one nauseating hitch.William Emond, Doctorant sur le thème de la réduction du mal des transports en voiture, Université de Technologie de Belfort-MontbéliardLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2022102023-03-21T17:44:52Z2023-03-21T17:44:52ZThe end of thermal cars: why electric vehicles aren’t a silver bullet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516732/original/file-20230321-28-xwkl31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C4031%2C2233&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">By the end of the year, electric cars are expected to account for 13% of global light vehicle sales, up 9% from 2021, according to the IEA.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On 8 June 2022, the European Parliament voted to ban the sale of new internal-combustion engine cars in Europe in <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2022/06/08/climat-les-eurodeputes-s-opposent-a-un-texte-de-reforme-du-marche-carbone_6129406_3244.html">2035</a>. This measure is part of European objectives to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55% by 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2050.</p>
<p>With this decision, European policies are promoting the electric vehicle (EV) as the solution for reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector. Today, the sale of EVs is <a href="https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/developper-lautomobile-propre-et-voitures-electriques">rising swiftly</a>, accounting for almost 10% of private car sales in Europe. The current evolution of the automobile market and the urgency of the climate crisis seem to be in line with the 2035 deadline.</p>
<p>While this rapid change generates a sense of inevitability, it’s ultimately too simple a change in relation to such complex planetary problems. We must be aware not only of environmental consequences but also economic and social issues.</p>
<h2>Car pollution, but not just from the exhaust</h2>
<p>From an environmental point of view, multiple studies have compared the GHG emissions of internal combustion cars with <a href="https://librairie.ademe.fr/cadic/3285/_90511__acv-comparative-ve-vt-rapport.pdf">those of their electric equivalents</a>. Emissions during the use of an electric car depend directly on the emissions level of the electricity mix used to charge the vehicles.</p>
<p>In the case of France, a large share of electricity comes from low-carbon sources because of the country’s significant use of nuclear power, which is not the case in all European countries. However, the construction of EVs, and especially the fabrication of their batteries, emits high levels of GHG, and the environmental benefits can only be offset if the car is driven enough. This undermines the argument for restrained use, which is a major lever for climate mitigation.</p>
<p>By only considering emissions released within the national borders, carbon-accounting methods are not adapted to solutions that result in pollution emitted in other countries. According to these techniques, VEs appear to be effective in reducing the national carbon footprint. The desire to adopt them in France is therefore understandable but their virtue does not extend to the global level.</p>
<p>Besides climate challenges, the ban on the sale of internal combustion vehicles in 2035 must respond to the issue of air quality in most of the world’s major cities, with <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2021/09/22/pollution-de-l-air-l-oms-durcit-drastiquement-ses-normes-pour-eviter-7-millions-de-morts_6095590_3244.html">impacts on the local economy and public health</a>.</p>
<p>The transport sector is a major source of this pollution and VEs are an alternative solution to help reduce these emissions – a reduction that is nevertheless mitigated by the release of particles linked to the abrasion of tyres, breaks and roads, which <a href="https://librairie.ademe.fr/air-et-bruit/5384-emissions-des-vehicules-routiers-les-particules-hors-echappement.html">remains high</a>.</p>
<p>By enforcing low-emission zones, many European cities are obliging owners of the most polluting cars to buy newer cars, or even electric vehicles, which emit fewer local pollutants.</p>
<h2>Oil-related tax loss and EV subsidies</h2>
<p>The all-electric transformation of vehicle fleets by 2035 will necessarily revolutionise the entire road-infrastructure economic system. With the reduction in fossil fuel consumption, revenue from the French domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE) will also decrease.</p>
<p>This tax generated <a href="https://www.senat.fr/rap/a20-139-2/a20-139-2_mono.html">33.3 billion euros in 2019</a> and is central to both the national budget and that of local authorities. Replacing the TICPE with a tax on electricity could make up for some of the tax losses but would affect all households, including those who travel less by car.</p>
<p>The subsidy system in place (bonuses and the conversion bonus) has strongly contributed to the current level of EV use but is set to become increasingly expensive. In 2020, it cost <a href="https://6-t.co/le-soutien-a-lelectromobilite-par-la-puissance-publique-qui-va-payer-la-note/">700 million euros</a>, with a 20% market share, including hybrid vehicles. In comparison, the 2018 “bike and active transport” plan allocated <a href="https://www.gouvernement.fr/les-actions-du-gouvernement/transition-ecologique/l-etat-vous-aide-a-adopter-le-velo-au-quotidien">350 million euros over seven years for cycling infrastructures</a>.</p>
<p>Tax benefits and subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles are currently more beneficial for users in urban areas, where this technology is adopted quicker thanks to the favourable conditions. Rural and peri-urban areas are more of a challenge in this race toward the all-electric transformation, as those living there have no choice but to use a car.</p>
<h2>Tense markets and very uncertain costs</h2>
<p>The government will therefore have to make significant contributions to support businesses and individuals in this transformation, and it remains to be seen what political choices will be made to redistribute this cost among taxpayers. Despite the installation of new electric generators, the rise in demand will greatly increase the <a href="https://www.fournisseurs-electricite.com/guides/prix/kwh-electricite/evolution">electricity bill of French households</a>, especially if the residential sector also uses electricity for heating.</p>
<p>On a global scale, lithium and many other metals have become strategic resources for electric mobility. However, high demand and the geographical imbalance of deposits and exploitation create tensions that will weaken the supply and push up the prices of raw materials.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489160/original/file-20221011-14-o72r8v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489160/original/file-20221011-14-o72r8v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489160/original/file-20221011-14-o72r8v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489160/original/file-20221011-14-o72r8v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489160/original/file-20221011-14-o72r8v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489160/original/file-20221011-14-o72r8v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489160/original/file-20221011-14-o72r8v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489160/original/file-20221011-14-o72r8v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Piles of salts containing lithium in the Uyuni flat in Bolivia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tomab/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The electrification of Europe will therefore be dependent on imports of these raw materials, raising doubts about the ability to supply the entire European and global market with EVs at a reasonable price.</p>
<h2>A quick fix for the climate, but far cry from an ecological solution</h2>
<p>The all-electric transformation of vehicle fleets is a headlong rush that relies on an innovation that does not call into question the way our society works. If EVs are part of the strategy for carbon neutrality by 2050, they will not be enough by themselves and will continue to maintain an unstable system dependent on a high level of construction and land artificialisation and the abundant consumption of resources and energy.</p>
<p>The urgency related to climate change, with ambitious targets for 2030 and 2050, makes solutions viable that are beneficial in the short term, such as EVs, but these will no longer be feasible in 2100, in particular due to a lack of natural resources <a href="https://www.cairn.info/penser-la-decroissance--9782724613001-page-95.htm">beyond 2050</a>. With the overselling of its ecological benefits, the electric vehicle stifles potential action to change our car-centred system. Promoting restrained use is the safest and most natural solution and offers multiple environmental and social benefits.</p>
<p>Transport systems, spatial planning and lifestyles are caught up in a decades-old inertia focussed on speed and consumption. Despite the urgent need to end this “ecocidal” model, reflection on the future of currently car-based territories, between urban centres and rural areas, are wanting.</p>
<p>The end of the internal combustion engine car in 2035 should not be synonymous with their systematic replacement by electric cars, but rather with a profound questioning of the place of the vehicle in our daily lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>If electric cars are useful for the energy transition, they’re not without flaws and drawbacks and should not make us forget the need to reduce car use.Alexis Poulhès, Enseignant à l’École des Ponts, ingénieur de recherche au Laboratoire Ville Mobilité Transport, École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)Cyrille François, Ingénieur en génie de l’environnement et docteur en urbanisme, Université Gustave EiffelLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998402023-02-15T13:23:55Z2023-02-15T13:23:55ZSuper Bowl car ads sell Americans the idea that new tech will protect them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510122/original/file-20230214-18-a4wi35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">At the dawn of the car era, carmakers needed to allay fears that pedestrian lives were at risk.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/pnp/ppmsca/67900/67974v.jpg">Library of Congress</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Super Bowl ads tend to kick off trends, and it looks like the automotive industry will ramp up its pitch for electric vehicles after <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jymEz9xkPQ">giving them center stage</a>. Even Tesla, which has never run a Super Bowl ad, managed to sneak its Model Y <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z64_BllmVKc&feature=youtu.be">into a Popeyes commercial</a>, while Ram boasted that its new electric pickup truck’s smart technology solved the problems of “<a href="https://youtu.be/6iaUoJUdTk4">premature electrification</a>” that left consumers unsatisfied.</p>
<p>But it was <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/02/13/tesla-elon-musk-fsd-tech-ceo-spent-almost-600000-on-a-super-bowl-ad-to-warn-america-about-teslas-self-driving-technology/">an ad paid for by the Dawn Project</a>, <a href="https://tcrn.ch/3xiqwL9">a safety advocacy group</a>, that will likely trigger a fleet of ads this year to reassure consumers that EV technology is safe.</p>
<p>In it, Tesla’s self-driving cars run down child-sized mannequins. Tesla CEO Elon Musk shrugged off the ad, tweeting that even bad publicity would end up promoting <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1624873453949014017?s=20&t=Q1c1ZIsKz9yYUKz6QW3cTw">Tesla’s self-driving cars</a>. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.bellisario.psu.edu/people/individual/matthew-jordan">As a media scholar</a> interested in how cultures deal with disruptive technology, I see similarities between today’s concerns over EVs and the early days of cars.</p>
<p>Back then, the public conversation usually contained a mix of optimism and fear. Then automakers turned to advertising to allay those fears.</p>
<h2>Sound signals and safety</h2>
<p>As it happens, advertising safer technology is as old as the automotive industry.</p>
<p>Because automobiles can endanger human life, engineers have long been trying to solve their safety problems. In the early 20th century, along with better brakes, headlights and steering wheels, <a href="https://www.upress.virginia.edu/title/5866/">engineers promised that advances in sound signaling technology</a> – the car horn – would make driving safer by letting people know a car was coming.</p>
<p>In my new book, “<a href="https://www.upress.virginia.edu/title/5866/">Danger Sound Klaxon! The Horn That Changed History</a>,” I tell the story of early sound signals. At first, engineers adapted the bells, gongs and whistles from other types of conveyances to automobiles. But eventually the industry settled on the squeeze bulb horn – the kind that makes a “honk honk” noise. </p>
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Squeeze Bulb Horn.
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<p>The only issue? In crowded streets, they weren’t loud enough to hear. </p>
<p>So in 1909, a new horn from the Lovell-McConnell company called the Klaxon solved that problem, promising drivers the ability, with just the touch of an electric button, to let loose a metallic “aaOOga” sound so loud that no one could miss it. They quickly set to work to convince the public that their patented noisy technology made driving safer.</p>
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Klaxon horn.
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<p>Klaxon’s ad campaign used a new technique called “<a href="https://newleftreview.org/issues/i4/articles/raymond-williams-the-magic-system">situational advertising</a>” that put readers in imaginary situations where they were given a choice. Many of these ads, run in some of the era’s most popular magazines, asked readers to consider the best way to protect themselves from other people’s carelessness. </p>
<p>One Klaxon ad from a 1910 issue of the Saturday Evening Post portrays a distracted pedestrian stepping in front of a car in New York City’s Herald Square with the tag line “You Can’t Change Human Nature.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An advertisement of a man absentmindedly walking in front of a street car." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The car industry saw human nature as a potential obstacle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ia902201.us.archive.org/3/items/saturdayeveningp1832unse/saturdayeveningp1832unse.pdf">The Internet Archive</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“The auto must have a signal that really warns,” <a href="https://ia902201.us.archive.org/3/items/saturdayeveningp1832unse/saturdayeveningp1832unse.pdf">reads the copy</a>. “If all minds were always alert – if children could protect themselves – if the weak were strong, there would be no need of any auto signal.” </p>
<p>And so the ad suggests that the only responsible solution for car owners is to own a Klaxon, because its distinctive noise said “AUTO COMING! LOOK OUT! NOW!”</p>
<h2>Quieter tech to keep drivers safe</h2>
<p>People bought the medium and the message. For two decades, <a href="https://www.upress.virginia.edu/title/5866/">Klaxon dominated the global car horn market</a> and pumped its technocentric safety message into the media ecosystem.</p>
<p>But reliance on loud signaling technology to keep people safe became an odious proposition after the traumas of World War I, when Klaxons were used in the trenches as a gas alarm. In the postwar period, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-centuries-long-quest-for-a-quiet-place-94614">transnational culture war against noise took off</a>. </p>
<p>So societies everywhere turned to different forms of technology, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/brief-history-stoplight-180968734/">like traffic lights</a>, to solve the safety problem that noisy car horns could not. The Klaxon went into diminuendo as engineers turned their attention to the problems of quieting automobile noise <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/31220361.pdf">with muffling technologies</a> such as closed cabins and “silent gearwheels.” </p>
<p>Yet though their focus changed, the underlying message did not: Emerging technologies could always solve the problems caused by existing ones. </p>
<h2>Smart technology promising less thinking</h2>
<p>Flash forward to today and you can see that the more things change in technology advertising, the more they stay the same.</p>
<p>Consider <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvlHTNPROYE">a recent commercial for the Volkswagen Atlas</a> that ran during football games all season – and which eerily echoes the Klaxon ad from 1910.</p>
<p>Titled “Those Guys,” the clever ad shows a wired-in zoomer, transfixed by his smartphone and oblivious to the world around him, walking the streets while Doris Day’s “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYGgveW0VYg">It’s a Lovely Day Today</a>” plays in the background. Like the man in the 1910 Klaxon ad, this guy steps right in front of a moving Atlas. But, thanks to its “Standard Front Assist and Pedestrian Monitoring” technology, the car brakes automatically and everyone is safe. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wvlHTNPROYE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Human folly – epitomized by ‘those guys’ – is still cast as a problem to be solved by technology.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Obviously, the situation portrayed in the ad has changed. Today’s new quiet technology protects both pedestrian and driver from harm by sensing movement and automatically braking, so it doesn’t really matter whether either is warned. </p>
<p>But the subtext remains the same: Since you can’t change human nature and there will always be “those guys,” rest assured that emerging technology “built with safety in mind” can protect us. </p>
<p>And no matter what gadget the advertisers are trying to sell, that underlying technocentrism – a civic religion in American consumer culture that is practically as important as football – is a constant you can count on.</p>
<p>So whether it’s noisy horns, self-driving cars, <a href="https://theconversation.com/shhhh-theyre-listening-inside-the-coming-voice-profiling-revolution-158921">smart speakers</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-people-calling-bitcoin-a-religion-175717">cryptocurrency</a>, people are bombarded with messages encouraging them to adopt new technology – without stopping to consider if they really need what companies are selling.</p>
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</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199840/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Jordan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Today it’s smart technology that will defend drivers and pedestrians. Over a century ago, it was the Klaxon horn.Matthew Jordan, Associate Professor of Media Studies, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1996002023-02-13T04:21:24Z2023-02-13T04:21:24ZElectric utes can now power the weekend – and the work week<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509668/original/file-20230213-16-iapt69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C30%2C4058%2C2638&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Four years ago, then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOBZOsVlUWs&ab_channel=Qldaah">famously claimed</a> electric vehicles (EVs) would end the weekend. “It’s not going to tow your trailer. It’s not going to tow your boat. It’s not going to get you out to your favourite camping spot,” he said. </p>
<p>His comments drew on the <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/about-ev/myth-busting">popular misconception</a> EVs are underpowered relative to petrol, gas or diesel cars. Experts <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-10/federal-election-fact-check-electric-vehicle-tow-boat/11078464">refuted</a> the claims, while <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xFDR-aEOpk&ab_channel=MashableDeals">video</a> of a Tesla towing a 130-tonne Boeing 787 circulated. </p>
<p>But one part of Morrison’s critique had longer resonance. Could utes ever go electric? These light utility cars are favoured by <a href="https://www.ceicdata.com/en/australia/employment-by-sex-and-by-occupation/employment-technicians-and-trades-workers">Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored-stories/a-treasure-trove-of-tradies/FFOCKMUGR63EHSHM6IS3RPVFO4/#:%7E:text=There%20are%2C%20she%20says%2C%20178%2C000,will%20be%20needed%20by%202022.">New Zealand’s</a> two million strong tradie workforce to take materials and tools to jobs. Ute drivers are more likely to drive longer distances, making range anxiety an obstacle. </p>
<p>The answer is yes, though it may take longer than for cars. Only last week Melbourne company SEA Group <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-02-09/sea-mevco-electric-vehicle-mining-ute-toyota-hilux-landcruiser/101896170?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web">announced</a> a deal to turn thousands of conventional utes electric. </p>
<p>At present, new electric utes are still more expensive. But over time, their advantages will make them an easy choice. </p>
<h2>How are electric utes different?</h2>
<p>Electric utes will have much lower running costs from fuel to maintenance. Electricity is cheaper than petrol or diesel. And doing away with the internal combustion engine means maintenance is much cheaper and less frequent. </p>
<p>They have improved performance, with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhxVDazb1V4">instant torque</a> and rapid acceleration. This makes them suited for towing and driving in environments where quick manoeuvring and agility are needed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-electric-cars-for-under-45-000-theyre-finally-coming-to-australia-but-the-battle-isnt-over-191854">New electric cars for under $45,000? They're finally coming to Australia – but the battle isn't over</a>
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<p>They have <a href="https://www.lifewire.com/why-evs-are-roomier-5202177#:%7E:text=That's%20because%20less%20is%20more,room%20for%20passengers%20and%20cargo.">more storage</a> because there’s no large engine, leaving room for a front trunk. Batteries are typically located <a href="https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/electric/ev-car-battery-capacity-tech/">under the floor</a>.</p>
<p>And for tradies, the large battery means they can <a href="https://www.whichcar.com.au/reviews/2023-ldv-et60-review-electric-ute">charge and run</a> their tools without the need for a generator. </p>
<p>Like other electric vehicles, electric utes have better energy efficiency, converting much, much more of the energy stored in the battery into motion. By contrast, internal combustion engines <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1044-august-27-2018-12-30-energy-put-conventional-car-used-move-car">lose most of the energy</a> in their fuel to heat. </p>
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<h2>But what about ‘range anxiety’?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/survey-motor-vehicle-use-australia/latest-release">average driver</a> in Australia covers 36 kilometres per day, or around 12,000 kilometres each year. </p>
<p>But averages conceal heavy users. Owners of utes and other light commercial vehicles drive <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/survey-motor-vehicle-use-australia/latest-release">almost 40% more</a> than car drivers. </p>
<p>So, can electric utes handle the extra kilometres? In short – yes. Battery technology improves every year. The average distance an EV can drive on a single charge <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-range-of-electric-cars-vs-gas-powered-cars/">doubled</a> from 138km to 349km in the decade to 2021, based on US models. </p>
<p>Batteries will get better and cheaper, meaning range will increase. You can charge your electric ute at one of almost 5,000 <a href="https://www.plugshare.com/map/australia">charging stations</a> around Australia – a number which has <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/2022-australian-electric-vehicle-industry-recap">almost doubled</a> in just three years. It’s also possible to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5BPL4Nm1q0">swap out</a> depleted batteries rather than stopping to recharge. </p>
<p>If there’s power available at a worksite, you can also run a power cable to <a href="https://www.carsguide.com.au/ev/advice/charging-your-electric-car-at-home-everything-you-need-to-know-85675">top up</a> your ute while on the job. </p>
<h2>Electric utes will be slower to arrive – but the bigger change is already here</h2>
<p>This year, Australia <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/2022-australian-electric-vehicle-industry-recap">will have</a> 100,000 electric vehicles on its roads for the first time. </p>
<p>After years in the doldrums, electric cars finally arrived in numbers. Last year, almost 40,000 hit the roads for the first time – doubling the total in a single year. </p>
<p>But there’s still a way to go. That’s just <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/2022-australian-electric-vehicle-industry-recap/">3.8%</a> of all new car sales – well below the global average of <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/2022-australian-electric-vehicle-industry-recap/">12–14%</a> and far behind world leader Norway, where <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/629068/norway-electric-car-sales-december2022/">87%</a> of vehicles sold are now electric.</p>
<p>Cars are comparatively easy to electrify. Utes and trucks are a harder challenge. Even though they come with major advantages, the higher sticker price will deter buyers. </p>
<p>This matters, because transport is now Australia’s <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/government/government-matters/australias-road-to-zero-transport-emissions.html">third-largest</a> – and fastest growing – source of emissions, accounting for <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/nggi-quarterly-update-march-2022.pdf">close to 20%</a> of the nation’s emissions. </p>
<p><iframe id="hgPEt" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hgPEt/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Of these emissions, freight trucks are responsible for 23%, and light duty road vehicles – which includes utes – <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2020-volume-1.pdf">contribute 18%</a>. </p>
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<p>For years, Australia has been at the back of the pack. Our lack of emission standards for vehicles has made us a <a href="https://thedriven.io/2022/08/08/australias-dirty-and-expensive-car-habit-5-9-billion-in-extra-fuel-costs/">dumping ground</a> for high-polluting cars and trucks. </p>
<p>Electrifying our whole fleet of vehicles – coupled with clean energy to power them – is essential if we are to meet our legislated emissions targets. </p>
<h2>Which electric utes are available now – or coming soon?</h2>
<p>Australia’s first <a href="https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/2023-ldv-et60-pricing-and-features-australia-first-electric-ute">electric ute</a> is the <a href="https://zecar.com/details/LDV-eT60-/Standard?id=7af8d140-5a4a-11ed-a0ad-a7d51a987eae&name=LDV-eT60-&imgLink=https://image.zecar.com/eT60__Standard/1672471504-ldv_et60_1">LDV eT60</a>. It’s hugely expensive at around A$93,000, almost twice the cost of its diesel counterpart.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509554/original/file-20230211-26-ixyoa8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509554/original/file-20230211-26-ixyoa8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509554/original/file-20230211-26-ixyoa8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509554/original/file-20230211-26-ixyoa8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509554/original/file-20230211-26-ixyoa8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509554/original/file-20230211-26-ixyoa8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509554/original/file-20230211-26-ixyoa8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509554/original/file-20230211-26-ixyoa8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Australia’s first electric ute, LDV eT60.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zecar</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>So how can we be confident electric utes will <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-11/electric-utes-are-coming-to-australia-can-they-win-over-tradies/101508750">take off</a>? Because the technology isn’t standing still. As EVs get better and as worldwide battery production skyrockets, prices will fall. Many other models will soon be available. </p>
<p>States and territories are also introducing policies to reduce the cost of purchase, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-shift-to-basing-vehicle-registration-fees-on-emissions-matters-for-australia-199294">basing the cost</a> of registering a vehicle on its emissions. </p>
<p>Within seven years, electric vans and utes <a href="https://www.bcg.com/news/10october2022-electric-utes-to-boom-in-australia">are predicted</a> to make up over 50% of all light duty commercial vehicles. This could come even sooner with supportive government policies. </p>
<p>There’s also a renewed interest in local manufacturing. Queensland’s <a href="https://www.ace-ev.com.au/">Ace EV Group</a> plans to launch a small, cheap electric ute with the ability to charge your tools from its battery, while other outfits offer <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-10/electric-vehicle-conversions-take-off-amid-soaring-petrol-prices/100896286">to convert</a> your existing car to electric. </p>
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<h2>The route to electric utes</h2>
<p>The switch to electric is – at last – beginning in earnest. But time is of the essence. To accelerate, we need more variety and more affordable EVs, including light duty vehicles and utes. </p>
<p>One policy setting still holding us back is the lack of mandatory <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814">fuel efficiency standards</a>. If we had these, we would see <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer-idUSKBN20Q1MM">much faster change</a>. </p>
<p>Labor last year promised Australia would at last have ambitious mandatory <a href="https://www.trendsmap.com/twitter/tweet/1560411828118646784">fuel-efficiency standards</a>. They can’t come soon enough. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-failing-on-electric-vehicles-california-shows-its-possible-to-pick-up-the-pace-189871">Australia is failing on electric vehicles. California shows it's possible to pick up the pace</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199600/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Level Crossing Removal Authority, Transport for New South Wales, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, and Beam Mobility Holdings.</span></em></p>Electric cars are now appearing on Australian roads. But can electric utes meet the more exacting needs of our tradies?Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1992942023-02-10T03:09:01Z2023-02-10T03:09:01ZWhy a shift to basing vehicle registration fees on emissions matters for Australia<p>The ACT is changing how it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/02/act-to-incentivise-electric-vehicles-with-registration-fee-based-on-emissions-rather-than-weight">calculates car registration fees</a>. Instead of being based on a car’s weight, the fee the owner pays will be based on the greenhouse gas <a href="https://the-riotact.com/the-weight-is-over-government-flags-move-to-emissions-based-registration-system/631469">emissions</a> it produces.</p>
<p>Up to now, owners of cleaner but typically heavier electric vehicles have paid more for registration than those of high-polluting but lighter vehicles powered by petrol or diesel engines. Emissions-based fees will reverse that situation.</p>
<p>The ACT was already offering two years of <a href="https://www.accesscanberra.act.gov.au/s/article/motor-vehicle-registration-and-renewal-tab-zero-emissions-vehicle-registration">free registration for electric vehicles</a> up to mid-2024. Under the new policy, from May 25 this year, owners of new and used electric vehicles will pay a discounted fee once their two years of free registration is over. The remaining car fleet will transition to the new system on July 1 2024.</p>
<p>An emissions-based registration fee is a sensible policy worth adopting Australia-wide. It’s already in place in many other nations that have much higher uptakes of electric vehicles. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-failing-on-electric-vehicles-california-shows-its-possible-to-pick-up-the-pace-189871">Australia is failing on electric vehicles. California shows it's possible to pick up the pace</a>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508815/original/file-20230208-17-84k83n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508815/original/file-20230208-17-84k83n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508815/original/file-20230208-17-84k83n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508815/original/file-20230208-17-84k83n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508815/original/file-20230208-17-84k83n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508815/original/file-20230208-17-84k83n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508815/original/file-20230208-17-84k83n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508815/original/file-20230208-17-84k83n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Targeted policies and incentives do speed the uptake of electric vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Why is this policy change important?</h2>
<p>Transport is Australia’s <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/government/government-matters/australias-road-to-zero-transport-emissions.html">third-largest</a> – and fastest-growing – source of greenhouse gas emissions. Cars produce about half of these transport emissions.</p>
<p>Most of Australia’s vehicles use polluting fossil fuels. A switch to electric vehicles, coupled with a transition to renewable energy, is vital for Australia to meet its <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/australia-legislates-emissions-reduction-targets">commitments</a> to tackle climate change.</p>
<p>One of the quickest ways to reduce transport emissions is to <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-electric-cars-for-under-45-000-theyre-finally-coming-to-australia-but-the-battle-isnt-over-191854">accelerate</a> the current slow uptake of electric vehicles. In 2022, Australian sales totalled <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/2022-australian-electric-vehicle-industry-recap/">39,353</a>. There are now about <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/2022-australian-electric-vehicle-industry-recap/">83,000</a> light electric vehicles on our roads. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/let-buyers-jump-the-queue-for-electric-cars-by-importing-them-directly-197614">Let buyers jump the queue for electric cars by importing them directly</a>
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<p>Although sales almost doubled between 2021 and 2022, they represented only <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/2022-australian-electric-vehicle-industry-recap/">3.8% of all new vehicle sales</a> in 2022. That’s well below the <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/2022-australian-electric-vehicle-industry-recap/">global average of 12-14%</a>. And it’s way behind world leader Norway where <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/629068/norway-electric-car-sales-december2022/">87%</a> of cars being sold now are electric. </p>
<p>In China, about 5.67 million electric cars, or a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/21/china-electric-vehicles-tesla-byd/">quarter</a> of all new cars, were bought in 2022. By the end of the year, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/china-plug-in-car-sales-increased-by-50percent-in-november-2022/ar-AA15Tqiz">35% of the cars</a> being sold were battery-powered or plug-in hybrids. <a href="https://www.zap-map.com/ev-market-statistics/">In the UK</a>, more than 265,000 electrical vehicles were registered in 2022, a 40% increase on 2021.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://augustafreepress.com/commercial/global-electric-car-sales-still-booming-revenues-to-jump-by-20-and-hit-462b-in-2023/">global outlook</a> for electric vehicles remain strong. Total sales of 8.6 million vehicles are expected in 2023. That’s expected to rise to almost 12 million by 2025. </p>
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<p>Australia will pass the milestone of 100,000 electric vehicles on the road this year. But that’s well short of the target of <a href="https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/businesses-push-for-one-million-evs-on-aussie-roads-by-2027">1 million by 2027</a> set by an industry alliance headed by the <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/">Electric Vehicle Council</a>, and the Albanese government’s target of <a href="https://thedriven.io/2022/05/24/what-will-labors-promised-electric-vehicle-policy-deliver-for-drivers/">3.8 million by 2030</a>. Best practice policies will help to accelerate the transition.</p>
<p>The importance of the new policy is that it will help to reduce costs for buyers. Cost is one of the main barriers to buying an electric vehicle in Australia. In 2022, <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-electric-cars-for-under-45-000-theyre-finally-coming-to-australia-but-the-battle-isnt-over-191854">less than 20%</a> of electric vehicles sold for less than A$65,000. While some Australians are willing to pay the hefty price tag, it remains an obstacle for others.</p>
<p>Government interventions play a big role in reducing purchase costs and annual fees. Higher taxes on polluting vehicles are also likely to impact <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064008">consumer choice</a> so more drivers make the switch. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-electric-cars-for-under-45-000-theyre-finally-coming-to-australia-but-the-battle-isnt-over-191854">New electric cars for under $45,000? They're finally coming to Australia – but the battle isn't over</a>
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<h2>What is best practice in emissions-based vehicle policies?</h2>
<p>Policies that reduce registration fees and provide tax benefits to electric vehicle owners have been widely implemented overseas during the past few decades. </p>
<p>Norway first introduced registration fee <a href="https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy">exemptions</a> in 1990. This, along with a range of other measures and incentives, helped to <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/norway-electric-vehicle-energy-transport/">increase electric vehicle sales</a> to 50% of the market in 2020, and 79% by 2022. No other nation comes close. </p>
<p>In the European Union, 21 of 27 member countries levied car taxes partially or totally based on <a href="https://www.acea.auto/figure/co2-based-motor-vehicle-taxes-in-eu-by-country/">CO₂ emissions</a> in 2022. </p>
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<p>The EU-wide <a href="https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Tax_Guide_2022.pdf">policies</a> provide a range of financial benefits to owners of electric vehicles. They apply to both vehicle acquisition (value-added tax, sales tax, registration tax) and vehicle ownership (annual circulation tax, road tax). </p>
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<h2>How much difference can these policies make?</h2>
<p>A number of studies of the effectiveness of CO₂-based car taxation policies have found evidence they contribute to lowering transport emissions. </p>
<p>For example, Ireland first introduced an emissions-based car taxation policy in 2008. An <a href="https://www.marei.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Working-Paper-02-2021-Ex-post-analysis-of-the-2008-car-tax.pdf">analysis</a> of its impacts found it produced a cumulative CO₂ saving of 1.6 million tonnes from 2008 to 2018. </p>
<p>In 2018, Irish-licensed vehicles travelled a total of <a href="https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-tranom/transportomnibus2018/roadtrafficvolumes/">47.5 billion</a> kilometres. The study found average carbon intensity of the car fleet had reduced from 189gCO₂/km in 2007 to 164gCO₂/km in 2018. It would have been 168gCO₂/km without the tax intervention, according to the analysis. </p>
<p>A similar <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/the-norwegian-co2-differentiated-motor-vehicle-registration-tax_ee108c96-en">study</a> that evaluated Norway’s CO₂-based taxes found them to be powerful policies applied aggressively at levels ten times the <a href="https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets_en">EU Emissions Trading System</a> quota prices. The analysis found these policies also delivered other improvements, with the largest impacts being reductions in air pollution.</p>
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<h2>What else needs to be done in Australia?</h2>
<p>A measure such as introducing an emissions-based registration system is a step in the right direction. But to be effective it needs to be part of a holistic national effort to accelerate adoption of electric vehicles.</p>
<p>In 2023, Australia needs to speed up efforts on two major initiatives that were introduced in 2022. </p>
<p>The federal government began consultations on Australia’s first <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/next-steps-national-electric-vehicle-strategy">National Electric Vehicle Strategy</a> last September. More than 500 <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/national-electric-vehicle-strategy">submissions</a> were received, representing the views of over 2,150 Australian individuals and organisations.</p>
<p>Commitments were also made to develop an ambitious set of mandatory <a href="https://www.trendsmap.com/twitter/tweet/1560411828118646784">fuel-efficiency standards</a> to help increase the supply of electric vehicle models. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814">The road to new fuel efficiency rules is filled with potholes. Here's how Australia can avoid them</a>
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<p>Both initiatives are key policy pillars of an effective strategy to reduce transport emissions. </p>
<p>Building on this momentum and urgently implementing bold policies will demonstrate Australia’s commitment to embrace the transition to electric vehicles and accelerate emission reductions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199294/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, and Beam Mobility Holdings.</span></em></p>The rest of the nation should follow the ACT’s lead. Incentives to boost the transition to electric vehicles are one of the best ways to tackle Australia’s fastest-growing source of emissions.Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1995552023-02-09T12:35:51Z2023-02-09T12:35:51ZRenault-Nissan: why electric vehicles will be key to the future of the embattled auto alliance<p>When Carlos Ghosn was escorted off his private jet after landing at Tokyo’s Haneda airport in November 2018 and promptly arrested for alleged financial misconduct, simmering tensions between carmakers Renault and Nissan over his plans to create a single, cohesive company <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/nissan-ghosn-timeline-idCNL8N29C3S4">became all too public</a>. </p>
<p>The two companies, along with Mitsubishi, had forged an alliance in 1999 after Renault rescued Nissan from bankruptcy. This inauspicious start led to an imbalance in the alliance – Renault held 43% of Nissan versus the Japanese company’s 15% stake in its partner. After dealing with the effects on the companies of Ghosn’s arrest, as well as <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/amid-disruption-automotive-suppliers-must-reimagine-their-footprints">COVID-created supply chain disruption</a> and shifting global demand towards electric vehicles (EVs), <a href="https://www.nissan-global.com/EN/COMPANY/ALLIANCE/">a recent realignment of the alliance</a> signals an attempt to reset both companies’ fortunes.</p>
<p>Ghosn had been instrumental in the alliance as “le cost cutter” from French automaker Renault. He was a pivotal figure in the corporate rescue of Nissan, first as chief operating officer in June 1999, then as chief executive officer from 2001. Ghosn was synonymous with the <a href="https://uk.nissannews.com/en-GB/releases/release-11606-nissan-unveils-revival-plan">Nissan revival plan</a>. But for Nissan the rescue and subsequent alliance came with strings that led all the way to the French government (which holds 15% of Renault shares).</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly then, Ghosn’s 2018 arrest lead to years of managerial stagnation as attempts were made to resolve the imbalance in the partnership. Without Ghosn – dubbed “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/Bi5xGc7SIj/the_fall_of_the_god_of_cars">the god of cars</a>” in some parts of the media – the accumulating challenges that faced the group took on a new urgency and the value of both businesses fell by <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/Bi5xGc7SIj/the_fall_of_the_god_of_cars#:%7E:text=wiped%20from%20the%20market%20value%20of%20both%20companies">almost 40%</a> between 2018 and 2020.</p>
<p>After the pandemic and subsequent disruptions to both supply and demand, both businesses have <a href="https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/timeline-renault-nissan-alliance-boom-bottom">continued to struggle</a>. While Ghosn’s hope for a single, cohesive company has not been realised, protracted negotiations have resulted in a “rebalanced” alliance. This time it has to work. As Renault-Nissan faces a new era of electric vehicles for carmakers, it is now or never.</p>
<h2>Electrifying the alliance</h2>
<p>While the new alliance covers multiple issues and locations, the most important single item is the <a href="https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/nissan-buy-15-renault-ev-unit-alliance-deal">15% share of Renault’s Ampere electric vehicle business</a> taken by Nissan.</p>
<p>Even before the departure of Ghosn, there were some worrying signs of trouble ahead for these car companies, especially concerning Europe’s burgeoning EV market. Under the leadership of Andy Palmer, Nissan had pioneered the development and production of family-sized battery electric cars, launching the Leaf in Europe in 2011.</p>
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<img alt="silver gray NISSAN LEAF is a compact C-segment electric car . New car on a sunny autumn day" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509032/original/file-20230208-25-33dgxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509032/original/file-20230208-25-33dgxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509032/original/file-20230208-25-33dgxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509032/original/file-20230208-25-33dgxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509032/original/file-20230208-25-33dgxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509032/original/file-20230208-25-33dgxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509032/original/file-20230208-25-33dgxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A silver Nissan Leaf electric car.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ginger_polina_bublik / Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Alongside Renault’s Zoe EV, the Leaf (and the E-NV200 electric van) dominated Europe’s early EV market. By January 2015 it had been the market leader for four years – <a href="https://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/01/20150119-leaf.html">accounting for</a> 14,658 sales out of a total of 56,393 in 2014. This meant the alliance held 46% of the total electric car market in Europe.</p>
<p>When Palmer departed Nissan in 2014, the emphasis on leading the electric car market seemed to wane. By March 2018, the Leaf and Zoe were still leading in terms of European market share, but competition was intensifying with new models from Tesla (Model S, Model X), BMW (the i3), Hyundai (Ionic Electric) and others gaining ground.</p>
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<img alt="Electric car Tesla Model S P85 fast speed drive on the road at sunset. Back view. Moscow." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509034/original/file-20230208-23-h3413g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509034/original/file-20230208-23-h3413g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509034/original/file-20230208-23-h3413g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509034/original/file-20230208-23-h3413g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509034/original/file-20230208-23-h3413g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509034/original/file-20230208-23-h3413g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509034/original/file-20230208-23-h3413g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An electric car Tesla Model S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ivan Kurmyshov / Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>And as the electric car market <a href="https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC112745">pivoted from niche to mainstream</a>, Nissan and Renault failed to capitalise on their early advantage. By November 2022, around <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/629798/europe-plugin-car-sales-november2022/">one in four new cars sold</a> in Europe were plug-in electric with year-on-year market growth of 26%. At this time Renault had fallen to ninth place in the electric car sales rankings (selling 5,321 of its Megane E-Tech cars). Neither Nissan nor Renault has a model in the top ten bestselling electric cars for the year to date.</p>
<p>Crucially, the continued market success of Tesla (with the Model Y and Model 3) has been mirrored by Renault’s main legacy competitors in Europe – Fiat (the 500) and VW (ID-3 and ID4) have been particularly successful. It was apparent by the time negotiations started on the new alliance that Renault in particular was no longer in a position of strength.</p>
<p>Now the alliance has to catch up. In 2018, there were about 60 plug-in and fuel cell models available in Europe. <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2019_07_TE_electric_cars_report_final.pdf">By 2025 there could be 333</a>. Of 172 new battery electric models expected to be on the market by 2025, only 13 are from Renault-Nissan, compared to around 50 from VW Group. Investment in battery manufacturing is also growing, such that there could be 35 gigafactories producing the electric car power sources in Europe by 2035, from <a href="https://sifted.eu/articles/european-gigafactory-batteries-startups">single digits at the end of 2022</a>.</p>
<h2>A bold plan</h2>
<p>The alliance has some hope, but more importantly, some bold plans. Manufacturing will be easier and cheaper due to shared parts and designs between vehicle types. For starters, the Nissan Ariya battery electric SUV is based on the <a href="https://www.renaultgroup.com/en/news-on-air/news/the-cmf-ev-platform-advances-the-new-generation-of-electric-vehicles/">common module family electric vehicle (CMF-EV) platform</a>, as is the Renault Megane E-Tech. An electric replacement for the Nissan Micra and a new Renault 5 will have 80% of their parts in common.</p>
<p>By 2028 Nissan plans to introduce <a href="https://chargedevs.com/newswire/nissan-unveils-prototype-production-facility-for-solid-state-batteries/">solid-state batteries</a>. But, by then, the global electric car market could see demand for 30 million cars per year. This may leave Renault-Nissan overwhelmed by faster legacy competitors in their respective domestic markets – as well as an ever-growing list of new entrants around the world.</p>
<p>The hope is that the new arrangements will unleash “strategic” creativity, allowing managerial freedom while retaining the cost advantages of shared volume. The risks are that technology may develop in another direction from Nissan-Renault’s current plans. But the alliance may also fail to execute such a complex restructuring in time to take advantage of this new auto world.</p>
<p>The alliance is a political as well as corporate arrangement. If it fails, it could show that Ghosn was right in the end about the need to turn the alliance into a single car company.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199555/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Wells does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After years of turmoil, Renault and Nissan hope to rebalance their partnership to take on Europe’s booming electric car market.Peter Wells, Professor of Business and Sustainability, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1976142023-01-19T01:21:35Z2023-01-19T01:21:35ZLet buyers jump the queue for electric cars by importing them directly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504609/original/file-20230116-18-i5v4ml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=408%2C8%2C4580%2C3051&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If Australia is to decarbonise our energy system by 2050, we need to start the transition to electric vehicles very soon. Cars sold in the 2030s will mostly still be on the road in 2050, so we have to make sure most of them are electric. But electric cars (including plug-in hybrids) currently account for only <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/australias-top-selling-evs-in-2022">3.5% of new car sales</a> in Australia. </p>
<p>The world leader is Norway, where <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/629068/norway-electric-car-sales-december2022/">87.6% of new cars</a> (including 4.8% plug-in hybrids) are electric. Australia’s figure is also far lower than in Europe (<a href="https://insideevs.com/news/629798/europe-plugin-car-sales-november2022/">27.7%</a>, including 10.4% plug-in hybrids), China (<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/china-plug-in-car-sales-increased-by-50percent-in-november-2022/ar-AA15Tqiz">35%</a>, 25% fully electric) or even the United States (7.1%, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/technology/3802179-us-electric-vehicle-sales-surge-in-2022-gain-on-tesla/">5.8%</a> fully electric).</p>
<p>However, even in Norway the proportion of cars on the road that are electric – although impressive compared to the rest of the world – is still <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/628846/norway-fifth-car-fleet-electric/">only 20%</a>. This difference reflects the time it takes to replace an existing fleet of internal combustion engine cars.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-failing-on-electric-vehicles-california-shows-its-possible-to-pick-up-the-pace-189871">Australia is failing on electric vehicles. California shows it's possible to pick up the pace</a>
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<h2>Why are sales so low in Australia?</h2>
<p>Why has Australia done so badly? The overt hostility of the previous government to electric vehicles can’t have helped. Prime Minister Scott Morrison even claimed Labor wanted to “abolish the weekend” with its electric vehicle policy. </p>
<p>But the Morrison government has been gone for the better part of a year now and electric vehicle sales, while growing, remain very low.</p>
<p>The two core issues faced by Australians wanting to buy electric vehicles are affordability and lack of availability. Despite some recent <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-prices-australia-model-3-model-y/">modest price reductions</a>, Teslas are priced out of reach of most private car buyers. They also face long delivery delays. Would-be buyers of many other brands face similar problems. </p>
<p>Australian governments have done little, if anything, to encourage the transition to electric vehicles. Almost uniquely among developed countries, Australia has neither a carbon price nor vehicle fuel-efficiency standards. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-electric-vehicles-wont-be-enough-to-rein-in-transport-emissions-any-time-soon-195722">Why electric vehicles won't be enough to rein in transport emissions any time soon</a>
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<p>The Victorian state government even <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/registration/registration-fees/zlev-road-user-charge#What-is-a-ZLEV">taxes electric and hybrid vehicles</a> for their road use. South Australia had a similar tax, but has <a href="https://www.legislation.sa.gov.au/lz?path=/b/current/motor%20vehicles%20(electric%20vehicle%20levy)%20amendment%20repeal%20bill%202022">abolished it</a>.</p>
<p>There have been a few positive measures, mostly at the state level. Although the federal government has legislated an exemption from fringe benefits tax, it offers <a href="https://thedriven.io/2022/08/01/why-labors-new-tax-cut-on-electric-vehicles-wont-help-you-buy-one-anytime-soon/">no direct benefit to individual car buyers</a>. The government’s <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/national-electric-vehicle-strategy">development of a national EV strategy</a> may lead to other initiatives. </p>
<p>But incentives don’t make much difference if it is impossible to buy a vehicle. Until recently, delivery delays could be explained as part of general COVID-related disruptions and restrictions introduced to control the pandemic. </p>
<p>But those restrictions are mostly gone now, and remaining supply disruptions haven’t stopped millions of <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/629798/europe-plugin-car-sales-november2022/">European</a> and <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/china-plug-in-car-sales-increased-by-50percent-in-november-2022/ar-AA15Tqiz">Chinese</a> buyers from getting behind the wheel.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-electric-cars-for-under-45-000-theyre-finally-coming-to-australia-but-the-battle-isnt-over-191854">New electric cars for under $45,000? They're finally coming to Australia – but the battle isn't over</a>
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<h2>Industry’s structure is a barrier</h2>
<p>A critical problem is that the Australian retail motor industry has a structure designed for the 20th century, when a small number of locally made cars, powered by internal combustion engines, dominated the roads. Retailers, typically franchisees for one of the major manufacturers, provided not only a distribution channel, but highly profitable after-sales service.</p>
<p>With the end of Australian manufacturing, this no longer makes a lot of sense. The requirement to buy through an authorised dealer, like other systems of this kind, allows overseas producers to raise car prices for Australian consumers, with few offsetting benefits. They can also supply the market with fuel-inefficient models.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-holding-back-electric-cars-in-australia-weve-long-known-the-answer-and-its-time-to-clear-the-road-188443">Who's holding back electric cars in Australia? We've long known the answer – and it's time to clear the road</a>
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<p>The problem is even worse for electric vehicles. Compared to vehicles with internal combustion engines, electric vehicles have many fewer moving parts and <a href="https://www.whichcar.com.au/advice/ev-servicing-costs-explained">much less need for costly servicing</a>. </p>
<p>The most important component, the battery, has an estimated life of up to 20 years. There’s no transmission, spark plugs, timing belt or air filter to worry about. Profits on all of these items enable car dealers to reduce the sticker price on fossil-fuelled vehicles, making them much easier to sell. </p>
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<h2>Parallel importing is part of the solution</h2>
<p>One step towards solving this problem would be to allow consumers to import new and used cars from overseas suppliers. This is known as “parallel importing”. </p>
<p>Consumers have already seen the benefits of parallel importing for items including books, music and a wide variety of consumer goods. In some cases, such as that of books, parallel importing can be done only by individual consumers; in others it is open to firms that wish to compete with existing distribution channels.</p>
<p>Australia is far behind the rest of the world in the transition from fossil-fuelled vehicles. To avoid falling further behind, we need to change the kinds of vehicles we import. </p>
<p>A fuel-efficiency standard would discourage the dirtiest of our current vehicles. While increasing the upfront sale price, it would save drivers money in the long run. </p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-rapid-shift-to-electric-vehicles-can-save-24-000-lives-and-leave-us-148bn-better-off-over-the-next-2-decades-190243">A rapid shift to electric vehicles can save 24,000 lives and leave us $148bn better off over the next 2 decades</a>
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<p>Parallel importing would increase competition in the market for new and used electric vehicles overnight. Manufacturers would have to reconsider their supply and pricing strategies for Australia. </p>
<p>Allowing independent importation would also promote the development of a skilled workforce to service the cars. It could even allow the development of local manufacturing of electric vehicle components.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Flavio Menezes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Known as parallel importing, importing goods directly from overseas suppliers lowers costs and increases supply, which is what Australia’s electric vehicle market needs to catch up with the world.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandFlavio Menezes, Professor of Economics, Director of the Australian Institute for Business and Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1944342023-01-10T17:34:02Z2023-01-10T17:34:02ZFunding electric public transit can reduce emissions and address economic inequality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503682/original/file-20230109-13-pza0du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C693%2C5601%2C3305&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An electric bus charging on the side of a street in Montréal. Funding public transit is a good way to reduce greenhouse emissions while ensuring economic equality in moving to clean transportation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electric vehicles have the potential to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change/">address climate change</a> by producing significantly less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other air pollutants than conventional gasoline-powered vehicles.</p>
<p>To promote their use, the Canadian government <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2019/04/government-of-canada-invests-in-zero-emission-vehicles.html">incentivized the purchase of electric vehicles in 2019</a>, making it easier for Canadians to buy zero-emission vehicles.</p>
<p>Yet, high prices continue to be a major barrier. Electric vehicles of all types, even after a decade of being on the market, remain <a href="https://canadianautodealer.ca/2022/06/innovative-environmentally-friendly-and-expensive/">too expensive for most Canadians</a> — even after government incentives.</p>
<p>Prices for electric vehicles are increasing despite declining battery costs. The Tesla Model 3 is a classic example. Announced as an affordable car for the everyday person, it’s <a href="https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-increases-prices-all-models-canada/">starting price exceeds $60,000</a>.</p>
<p>So, while high-income consumers can purchase expensive electric vehicles and acquire virtue-signalling advantages for saving the planet, lower-income consumers are stuck with conventional vehicles that pollute more — if they can afford them at all.</p>
<h2>Electric vehicles are unaffordable</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fuelsinstitute.org/research/reports/ev-consumer-behavior/">average electric vehicle buyer in the United States</a> is a middle-aged man with an income exceeding $100,000. This suggests that <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8747754/canada-budget-2022-electric-vehicles-auto-industry-reaction/">electric vehicle incentives</a>, totalling about $2.2 billion in Canada, primarily go to the top 16 per cent income bracket — an already privileged group. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A silver car sitting outside a building with that says Tesla on the front" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502484/original/file-20221221-22-yp7uxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502484/original/file-20221221-22-yp7uxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502484/original/file-20221221-22-yp7uxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502484/original/file-20221221-22-yp7uxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502484/original/file-20221221-22-yp7uxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502484/original/file-20221221-22-yp7uxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502484/original/file-20221221-22-yp7uxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A Tesla Model 3 sedan sits on display outside a Tesla showroom in Littleton, Colo. in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/David Zalubowsi)</span></span>
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<p>In order for lower-income people to benefit, <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV-equity-feb2021.pdf">electric vehicle prices need to decline</a>. How can affordability be best addressed? MBA students at the University of Manitoba’s I.H. Asper School of Business <a href="https://umanitoba.ca/asper/sites/asper/files/2022-12/CBA%20of%20EV%20Equality%20and%20Solutions%20October%202022%20V2.pdf">recently considered this question</a> and reached an unexpected conclusion. </p>
<p>Rather than promoting individual electric vehicles for lower-income consumers, the answer appears to lie with having better public transit instead. We carried out a series of cost-benefit analysis calculations to arrive at this conclusion.</p>
<h2>Electric vehicle incentives</h2>
<p>Based on statistical trends from Employment and Social Development Canada reports from <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/canada/employment-social-development/programs/poverty-reduction/backgrounder/backgrounder-toward-poverty-reduction-EN.pdf">2016</a> and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/esdc-edsc/documents/programs/poverty-reduction/national-advisory-council/reports/2021-annual/advisory-council-poverty-2021-annual(new).pdf">2021</a>, we calculated that lower-income consumers make up about 10 percent of the population — about 3.8 million Canadians, or 1.5 million households. </p>
<p>The first option for addressing electric vehicle affordability requires the federal government to provide enhanced incentives to low-income electric vehicle consumers. Such incentives would need to bridge the total cost of ownership gap — the purchase cost of the vehicle, plus operating and fuel costs — between modest new electric cars and modest new conventional cars. </p>
<p>The funds to balance the total cost of ownership would be provided by government, hence the economic program cost, with two main benefits: GHG reductions and air quality improvement. </p>
<p>By switching from gasoline to electric, GHG reductions average about 4.2 tonnes per vehicle annually across the country. We used the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/climate-change/climate-plan/annex_pricing_carbon_pollution.pdf">federal government’s social cost of carbon</a>, which reflects future damage costs from releases today. It’s important to note that the social cost of carbon is different than current federal fuel charges, which <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/14/7909">merely provide a price-signal to consumers</a>. We calculate that these reductions would result in a benefit of about $210 annually per vehicle.</p>
<p>The reduction of other air pollutants would also improve air quality. This would have <a href="https://www.lung.org/getmedia/13248145-06f0-4e35-b79b-6dfacfd29a71/zeroing-in-on-healthy-air-report-2022">positive benefits on human health</a>.</p>
<p>We estimate this option would cost the government about $30 billion. After including benefits, the overall net cost would be about $20 billion. While this approach could overcome excessive electric vehicle prices, it would be a costly policy, especially considering there are other, more affordable options available. </p>
<h2>Pay as you save programs</h2>
<p>The second option is similar to an idea already available for <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy-efficiency/homes/canada-greener-homes-grant/canada-greener-homes-loan/24286">home energy efficiency improvements</a>, except applied to electric vehicles. This involves interest-free, pay-as-you-save loans from the federal government for lower-income households. Such a program was <a href="https://winnipegsun.com/news/provincial/ndp-drop-alternate-throne-speech">proposed in Manitoba in 2017</a>.</p>
<p>Loans would cover the entire cost of modest electric vehicles over lifetime, but require consumers to make principal payments and pay for operating costs. Our calculations for this option, however, show an even higher overall net cost of about $35 billion, hence a poor policy choice. </p>
<p>The benefits would be the same, but no actual net annual savings would be achieved because of high electric vehicle prices. Lower-income consumers would be left paying more than they can afford.</p>
<h2>Funding new public transport</h2>
<p>The last two options involve fully funding additional new transit buses to meet the transportation needs of lower-income households. We estimate that about 30,000 buses are needed nationally. This would triple the number across the country, although in-depth investigation is needed to clarify requirements.</p>
<p>Funding new transit buses wouldn’t just provide GHG reductions and air quality improvements, but also relieve traffic congestion. It would provide economic savings to households too, because people would not have to pay for cars or gasoline.</p>
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<img alt="A blue city transit bus idling by the curb of a street in winter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501677/original/file-20221218-18-bzd5bb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501677/original/file-20221218-18-bzd5bb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501677/original/file-20221218-18-bzd5bb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501677/original/file-20221218-18-bzd5bb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501677/original/file-20221218-18-bzd5bb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501677/original/file-20221218-18-bzd5bb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501677/original/file-20221218-18-bzd5bb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A second-generation New Flyer electric transit bus in Winnipeg in February 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Robert Parsons)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>There are two options for the type of buses the government could fund. The first option involves funding 30,000 new diesel buses across Canada. <a href="https://umanitoba.ca/asper/sites/asper/files/2022-12/CBA%20for%20Zero%20Emission%20Bus%20Options%20June%202020%20V3.pdf">Based on earlier research</a>, we estimate this option would cost about $20 billion. This would result in an overall net benefit of about $30 billion and would include significant GHG reductions because less cars would be driven.</p>
<p>Alternatively, the government could fund 30,000 additional electric and hydrogen fuel cell buses, instead of diesel buses. We calculate this would cost the government about $38 billion with a smaller positive overall net benefit of about $17 billion. Emission reductions would be larger than that for diesel buses, yet our calculations show relatively consistent GHG reduction costs.</p>
<p>A transitional approach would be feasible — the government could start by adding some additional diesel buses now and working to add more zero-emission buses gradually. Net emission reductions and positive economic benefits are achieved across this spectrum.</p>
<h2>How do we move forward?</h2>
<p>No matter which approach is chosen, the way forward will come with many difficult challenges — often unexpected. One interesting example is Winnipeg Transit, which discovered they are initially limited to only 100 zero-emission buses <a href="https://clkapps.winnipeg.ca/DMIS/ViewPdf.asp?SectionId=590985">due to electrical capacity constraints</a>, beyond which implementation becomes much trickier.</p>
<p>We also know <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ca/Documents/public-sector/ca-tackling-public-transits-funding-gap-en-aoda.pdf">public transit was hit</a> especially <a href="https://umanitoba.ca/asper/sites/asper/files/2022-07/larsonpaul-ksg-draft-jan-18.pdf">hard by COVID-19</a> and is <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/daily-quotidien/220321/dq220321c-eng.pdf?st=zRfOqDck">still suffering badly today</a>.
Growing public safety concerns are <a href="https://cutaactu.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/issue_paper_45_e.pdf">also a severe issue</a>.</p>
<p>Public transit <a href="https://cutaactu.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Issue-Paper-Why-public-transit-needs-extended-operating-support.pdf">needs more governmental assistance</a> to fully recover from the pandemic, but little further direct operational aid has appeared from the federal government. </p>
<p>Our results, while preliminary, suggest that public transit is a good way to simultaneously reduce GHG emissions while ensuring economic equality as we move toward clean transportation. Public transit warrants much more attention to help Canada’s transportation industry fully recover.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Parsons was part of a team, as co-applicant, receiving funding in 2021 from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) for a Knowledge Synthesis Grant (KSG) – Mobility and Public Transit (2021-2022), entitled,
“Public Transit and Active Transportation: Activity, Structural and Energy Efficiency Effects on Mobility and the Environment.”</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chueh-Ching (Janet) Chen is a member of IIBA (International Institue of Business Analysis) </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rohan Shanker is a Canadian Marketing Association and Canadian Public Relations Society member.</span></em></p>Rather than promoting individual electric vehicles for lower-income consumers, governments should fund electric public transit instead.Robert Parsons, Sessional Instructor, I.H. Asper School of Business, University of ManitobaChueh-Ching (Janet) Chen, MBA Student, I.H. Asper School of Business, University of ManitobaRohan Shanker, MBA Student, I.H. Asper School of Business, University of ManitobaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1963362023-01-08T13:26:22Z2023-01-08T13:26:22ZWhat you need to know for your next hybrid or electric vehicle purchase<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503340/original/file-20230105-24-7b0ybo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C0%2C7304%2C4902&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The sheer number of available options can make the idea of switching to a hybrid or electric vehicle daunting for many people.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As part of its goal to achieve <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">net-zero emissions by 2050</a>, Canada has introduced new regulations to mandate <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/autos/canada-moves-to-mandate-electric-vehicle-sales-starting-in-2026-1.6203478">one-fifth of all vehicles sold in Canada be electric</a> by 2026.</p>
<p>With the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9328746/canada-gas-prices-winter/">price of gasoline being projected to rise again</a>, and consumers worrying about the legacy of fossil fuel emissions, now is the perfect time for Canadians to shift toward hybrid and battery-powered electric vehicles.</p>
<p>But making an informed choice can be daunting. There are many different new forms of propulsion systems and energy-storage methods among hybrid and battery-powered electric vehicles — all of them different from conventional gas-burning cars.</p>
<p>The sheer number of hybrid and electric vehicle options can make the idea of switching to a hybrid or electric vehicle daunting for many. Here’s a guide to understanding hybrid and electric vehicles and deciding which is most suitable for your lifestyle.</p>
<h2>What makes hybrid and electric cars different?</h2>
<p>Traditional gas-powered cars use a type of engine called <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/internal-combustion-engine-basics">internal combustion engines</a> that use fuel to propel themselves. However, even high-performance gasoline engines are <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/57640">only 20 to 35 per cent efficient</a>.</p>
<p>In other words, a gas-powered car loses two-thirds of its energy in the form of heat, rather than useful work. Electric and hybrid vehicles, on the other hand, <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv-ev.shtml">are much more efficient</a>.</p>
<p>This is because in hybrid and electric vehicles, unlike gas-powered cars, only part of — or none of — the propelling force is generated by engines. They use <a href="https://electrovolt.ir/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Electric-Machines-Kothari-Nagrath-4th-ElectroVolt.ir_.pdf">electric machines</a>, featuring a high-efficiency energy conversion process at around <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2993235">90 per cent</a> to propel the vehicle. Electric machines improve <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/effect_of_electric_drive_vehicle_technologies-811668.pdf">fuel economy and drivability</a>.</p>
<h2>Hybrid electric vehicles</h2>
<p>Before deciding which type of electric vehicle to purchase, it’s important for buyers to know whether electric vehicle chargers are available in areas where they live and drive. If charging stations are difficult to access and buyers do a lot of long-distance driving, the hybrid electric vehicle is a good option to invest in. </p>
<p>Hybrid electric vehicles straddle the line between fully electric vehicles and conventional cars by pairing an internal combustion engine with an electric machine. Hybrid vehicles store <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_basics_hev.html">energy in both the fuel tank and battery pack</a>.</p>
<p>One distinct difference among hybrid vehicles is how the vehicle turns the engine’s power into movement, <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-ca/Vehicle+Powertrain+Systems-p-9780470666029">known as the powertrain</a>. Powertrains are important because they affect a vehicle’s fuel economy, drivability and purchasing price. There are three main types of hybrid vehicle classifications based on this.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman digging through her purse as she stands beside a parked red car and an electric vehicle charging station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501630/original/file-20221216-11129-qagdj1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501630/original/file-20221216-11129-qagdj1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501630/original/file-20221216-11129-qagdj1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501630/original/file-20221216-11129-qagdj1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501630/original/file-20221216-11129-qagdj1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501630/original/file-20221216-11129-qagdj1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501630/original/file-20221216-11129-qagdj1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman prepares to plug in her electric vehicle in Markham, Ont. in April 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Series hybrid system</h2>
<p>Series hybrid vehicles, like the <a href="https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/bmw/i3">BMW i3 extended range</a> and <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a15123329/2012-fisker-karma-review/">Fisker Karma</a>, only use the motor to provide the driving force. The power flows from the engine to the generator to the battery, then to the motor, the axle and finally the wheels.</p>
<p>The engine works at its narrow optimal region with high efficiency and delivers mechanical energy to the coupled generator, which later converts the mechanical energy to electric power and charges the battery.</p>
<p>Because the generator and motor normally have an efficiency around <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2993235">90 per cent</a>, the conversion process delivers <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_benefits.html">improved fuel economy</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, part of the mechanical energy is converted back to electric power during the braking process and stored in the battery pack, resulting in better fuel economy. This makes it a good choice for stop-and-go driving caused by heavy traffic or traffic signals.</p>
<h2>Parallel hybrid vehicles</h2>
<p>Parallel hybrid vehicles couple both the engine and electric machine to the transmission. Compared to the series hybrid architecture of using one generator and one propulsion motor, the parallel hybrid system uses one electric machine, <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/37z105pr">but the engine does not always work optimally</a>.</p>
<p>This configuration is less suitable for the stop-and-go scenario, but has better performance at high-speed driving since both propulsion sources operate with high efficiency. Examples of parallel hybrid vehicles include the <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/files/pdfs/insight_snapshot.pdf">Honda Insight</a>, <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/543548/new-range-rover-phev-models/">Land Rover Range Rover P400e</a>, <a href="https://www.hyundai.com/eu/models/tucson-hybrid.html">Hyundai Tucson Hybrid</a>, <a href="https://www.hyundai.com/eu/models/ioniq-hybrid.html">Hyundai Ioniq</a> and <a href="https://www.bmw.ca/en/all-models/phev/530e/2021-PHEV/5-series-phev-overview.html">BMW X5 530e</a>.</p>
<h2>Series-parallel hybrid vehicles</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/all-about-drivetrains">Series-parallel hybrids</a> combine the advantages of the series and parallel configurations. The drawback of these hybrids is the price — because these vehicles consist of both series and parallel systems, they are more complex, resulting in a higher price.</p>
<p>Examples of series-parallel hybrid vehicles are the <a href="https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/toyota/38225618.html">Toyota Prius</a>, <a href="https://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/09/more-details-on-the-lexus-ct-200h-hybrid-powertrain-42-mpg-us-combinedct200h-20100913.html">Lexus CT 200h</a>, <a href="https://www.theautochannel.com/news/2016/11/24/310242-2017-ford-fusion-hybrid-titanium-review-by-carey-russ-video.html">Ford Fusion Hybrid</a> and <a href="https://www.carsguide.com.au/urban/toyota-rav4-hybrid-xse-86477">Toyota RAV4</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A line of electric cars plugged into curbside electrical charging stations" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503315/original/file-20230105-20-cm3bdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503315/original/file-20230105-20-cm3bdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503315/original/file-20230105-20-cm3bdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503315/original/file-20230105-20-cm3bdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503315/original/file-20230105-20-cm3bdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503315/original/file-20230105-20-cm3bdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503315/original/file-20230105-20-cm3bdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s important for buyers to know whether electric vehicle chargers are available in areas where they live and drive before deciding on which type of vehicle to purchase.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fully electric vehicles</h2>
<p>If charging stations are easily accessible and long-distance driving is not a concern, battery-powered electric vehicles are a good option for buyers to consider. Fully electric vehicles rely solely on an electric machine and have no combustion engine. They obtain energy <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/how-do-all-electric-cars-work">from the electric grid and store it in its battery pack</a>. </p>
<p>Electric vehicles <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy-efficiency/transportation-alternative-fuels/personal-vehicles/choosing-right-vehicle/buying-electric-vehicle/21034">are very efficient because of the energy conversion process</a> of electric machines. Apart from the size and type of the battery pack, different electric vehicles use electric machines in different ways.</p>
<p>Most electric vehicles use one electric machine as the propulsion source — either front-wheel-drive or rear-wheel-drive. One drawback of this configuration is the electric machine does <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/ITEC48692.2020.9161542">not always operate at its optimal efficiency</a>. This affects how far the electric vehicle can be driven between charges.</p>
<p>To improve their efficiency and drivability, some electric vehicles use multiple electric machines. Some vehicles split vehicle power between two motors, which results in higher efficiency and a broader speed range. The <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_ca/model3">Model 3</a>, <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_ca/modely">Model Y</a> and <a href="https://www.tesla.com/models">Model S</a> Tesla cars have this configuration, allowing all-wheel-drive and better traction control. </p>
<p>Another way electric vehicles improve drivability is by using three electric machines. This allows vehicles to control the torque in rear wheels separately in a process known as <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/torque-vectoring-explained">torque vectoring control</a>. Typical examples of this configuration are the <a href="https://www.tesla.com/models">Model S Plaid</a> and <a href="https://www.tesla.com/modelx">Model X Plaid</a>.</p>
<p>There has never been a better time to switch to an electric vehicle. To help Canadians transition to this greener vehicle option, the Canadian government has financial supports available. The <a href="https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-technologies/zero-emission-vehicles/light-duty-zero-emission-vehicles/incentives-purchasing-zero-emission-vehicles">Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles</a> program provides cash rebates for battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Some provinces, like <a href="https://goelectricbc.gov.bc.ca/personal-rebate-offers/passenger-vehicle-rebates/">British Columbia</a> and <a href="https://vehiculeselectriques.gouv.qc.ca/english/rabais/ve-neuf/programme-rabais-vehicule-neuf.asp">Québec</a>, also offer their own provincial rebates.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196336/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gaoliang Fang works for McMaster University. </span></em></p>A guide to understanding hybrid and electric vehicles and deciding which is most suitable for your lifestyle.Gaoliang Fang, Postdoctoral Fellow, McMaster Automotive Resource Centre, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1959602022-12-07T22:40:42Z2022-12-07T22:40:42ZElectric vehicles: if the UK is serious about being a major player, here’s what needs to happen<p>The UK’s efforts to become a global player in electric vehicles (EVs) are back in the spotlight with two government announcements: a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ford-accelerates-electric-car-production-with-uk-government-support">£500 million loan guarantee</a> for Ford and a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/more-than-70-million-to-turbocharge-the-future-of-clean-transport">£73 million package</a> to support various smaller clean transport projects. </p>
<p>The loan guarantee is enabling Ford to spend £230 million on its Halewood plant near Liverpool to nearly double output of EV powertrains to 420,000 units a year. Powertrains are the motor and other parts that propel EVs forward. </p>
<p>It is also helping Ford to invest £370 million in its global R&D headquarters in Essex to help support EV development. Ford’s Mustang Mach-E SUV is one of the <a href="https://www.greencars.com/expert-insights/best-selling-electric-vehicles">best selling EVs</a> in the world, though it is currently <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/38579e30-d4ce-4dee-9acd-52d7e6350e87">made in Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>The government’s second <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/more-than-70-million-to-turbocharge-the-future-of-clean-transport">£73 million package</a> is a 50-50 investment with the auto industry. Among five projects receiving support is one aiming to develop a more efficient way of manufacturing EVs. </p>
<p>While these announcements are very welcome, we have seen numerous similar ones in recent years. But what’s the the big picture? How far is the UK from being a powerhouse in global EV?</p>
<h2>Assembly lines</h2>
<p>The UK currently produces <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/manufacturing/">over 850,000 cars</a> a year, the vast majority petrol and diesel. Over 700,000 are exported, more than half to the EU. </p>
<p>The biggest producers are Nissan in Sunderland, BMW Mini at Cowley near Oxford, Jaguar Landrover at three sites in the Midlands and north west, and Vauxhall at Ellesmere Port in Cheshire. Since all new cars must be at least hybrid by 2030 and <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005301/transitioning-to-zero-emission-cars-vans-2035-delivery-plan.pdf">completely electric by 2035</a>, all these groups are undergoing major transformations. </p>
<p>Nissan gave the UK an early lead in EVs with the Leaf, building it in Sunderland since 2013. On the back of a recent <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nissan-to-invest-billions-in-sunderland-plant-to-drive-electric-car-revolution-j70j95fmn#:%7E:text=Nissan's%20vast%20carmaking%20plant%20at,new%20electric%20models%20by%202030.">£1 billion investment</a>, the group is now also making hybrid Qashqais and Jukes at the plant, as well as lining up a replacement for the Leaf. </p>
<p>The news with the other players is more mixed. <a href="https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-10695081/Final-British-built-Vauxhall-Astra-rolls-Cheshire-production-line.html">Vauxhall will start</a> making electric vans at Ellesmere in 2023, but has ceased Astra production there and will make new EV versions <a href="https://www.cinch.co.uk/news/final-vauxhall-astra-made-in-britain-ahead-of-electric-switch">in Germany</a> instead. Similarly, Mini is relocating electric production <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/15/bmw-axe-uk-production-electric-mini-relocate-china">to China</a>, with owner BMW saying the UK plant is not currently up to the task. </p>
<p>As for Jaguar Landrover, it has been investing in its UK plants to ensure that <a href="https://zenoot.com/2019/07/05/jlr-confirms-plan-to-build-electric-vehicles-at-castle-bromwich/">some EV models</a> will <a href="https://electrek.co/2022/09/21/jaguar-land-rover-converts-halewood-factory-for-electric-vehicles/">be made there</a>, but others <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/27/uk-battles-to-keep-jaguar-land-rovers-planned-ev-production">may reportedly</a> be made abroad, as is already the case with its Austria-made i-Pace. </p>
<p>Ford’s powertrains investment is a solid commitment to the UK, but there are no signs it will start making cars here again. It is due to start making EVs in <a href="https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ford-drop-fiesta-bring-forward-ev-launch#:%7E:text=The%20automaker%20is%20investing%20to,based%20on%20the%20MEB%20platform.">Germany and Romania</a> in the next two years. Nissan is the only other player that makes EV powertrains in the UK. </p>
<p>In all, the UK’s share of European EV assembly and production has fallen from 25% in 2018 to what industry sources tell us is about 10% today, and it’s forecast to <a href="https://www.taylor-studwelding.com/blog/the-uks-ev-production-rate-compared-to-other-european-countries">drop to 5%</a> by 2030. <a href="https://www.amz-sachsen.de/en/news-en/every-fifth-electric-car-built-in-europe-is-made-in-saxony/">Germany is making</a> four times more EVs than the UK – or around a third of the European total – while France and Slovakia are also ahead. </p>
<p>It does not help that UK consumers are somewhat lukewarm about EVs. The UK is only 17th in terms of EV ownership per head, way behind leaders <a href="https://www.carwow.co.uk/blog/which-country-is-leading-in-the-electric-car-race#gref">Norway and the US</a>. </p>
<h2>Gigafactories</h2>
<p>The main obstacle to UK success, however, is batteries. They are easily the heaviest EV component, so having production close to assembly plants is essential for reducing costs. And if producers in the UK are going to avoid EU import tariffs from 2027, they also need locally made batteries to qualify as “<a href="https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/brexit-britain-faces-battery-challenge-avoid-tariffs">made in the UK</a>”. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cmc-global.consulting/insights/blog/can-europe-s-battery-production-industry-catch-up-to-asia-s-ev-dominance--23/">EV battery market</a> is <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Is-Dominating-The-Global-Electric-Vehicle-Battery-Market.html#:%7E:text=Chinese%20Dominance&text=Currently%2C%20Chinese%20companies%20make%20up,come%20from%20the%20Chinese%20company.">dominated by China</a>, but Europe and the US are <a href="https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/manufacturing/what-is-a-gigafactory-where-are-they-being-built">battling to catch up</a>. </p>
<p>Nissan Sunderland is the cornerstone of UK efforts, since there is an adjacent battery plant owned by Chinese supplier Envision AESC. <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/uk-auto-industry-left-behind-as-carmakers-focus-ev-production-in-eu-countries/">Once the biggest</a> plant in Europe but long since outgunned by continental rivals, Envision’s 3-4 gigawatt hours (GWhrs) of annual output are enough for just 40,000 cars. But once a current expansion completes in 2024 it will <a href="https://www.electrive.com/2021/10/25/envision-aesc-aims-for-38-gwh-in-sunderland/#:%7E:text=The%20planned%20Envision%20AESC%20battery,a%20potential%20final%20expansion%20stage.">produce 11GWhrs</a>, potentially later expanding to 38GWhrs. </p>
<p>A second gigafactory in north-east England is in the offing in Blyth, Northumberland by start-up Britishvolt. It aims to produce 30GWhrs of annual capacity, but has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/02/britishvolt-staves-off-collapse-with-extra-funding-and-steep-staff-pay-cut">funding problems</a> and has been sounding out buyers. It is <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7cd57531-1c54-4d32-955c-d185dcea0621">yet to announce</a> any major supply deals and is several years away from production.</p>
<p>There is also a <a href="https://www.coventry.gov.uk/news/article/4432/west-midlands-submits-investment-zones-bid-to-drive-economic-growth-new-homes-and-jobs">plant proposal</a> in advanced planning in Coventry in the West Midlands. This joint venture between the local council and airport aims to produce 60GWhrs of batteries each year. </p>
<p>These three plants could service about 1.2 million cars a year – more than enough to power the UK’s entire output. But the government would like to go further, attracting another five gigafactories with a <a href="https://energymanagementsummit.co.uk/briefing/environmental-audit-committee-issues-warning-over-gigafactories/">further 100GWhrs</a> of capacity by 2027. </p>
<p>With gigafactories costing several billion pounds each, the government <a href="https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/953873/nissan-confirms-plans-for-1bn-electric-vehicle-battery-gigafactory-in-sunderland-953873.html">has been subsidising</a> the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/uk-battery-startup-britishvolt-secures-short-term-funding-2022-11-02/#:%7E:text=Britishvolt%20has%20outlined%20plans%20for,the%20line%20after%20construction%20began.">existing projects</a> to <a href="https://www.warwickshireworld.com/business/gigafactory-plan-for-coventry-airport-in-contention-for-controversial-government-scheme-3858448">help get them</a> moving. It has also <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/record-funding-uplift-for-uk-battery-research-and-development">committed £211 million</a> to battery research and innovation through the Faraday Battery Challenge. </p>
<p>One potential advantage is <a href="https://www.geplus.co.uk/news/cornwalls-lithium-enriched-geothermal-waters-hold-untapped-potential-23-09-2022/">substantial lithium deposits</a> in Cornwall, so the government has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/20/the-part-of-cornwall-nobody-ever-sees-the-hi-tech-future-for-lithium-and-tin-mining">subsidising Cornish developers</a> too. With enough lithium to power the entire UK requirement, it could yet become the 21st century equivalent of North Sea oil. </p>
<h2>The competition</h2>
<p>It still feels like the UK could win a good share of the EV market, but it is going to have to get its gigafactories up and running. With UK battery output still tiny, the temptation is for EV producers to move overseas. </p>
<p>In all, Europe now makes between <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/mapped-ev-battery-manufacturing-capacity-by-region/">about 10%</a> and <a href="https://www.ipcei-batteries.eu/fileadmin/Images/accompanying-research/market-updates/2022-01-BZF_Kurzinfo_Marktanalyse_Q4_ENG.pdf">15% of</a> the global total. Hungary and Poland are currently the first and second biggest producers in Europe, but a <a href="https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/sponsored/how-germanys-automobile-hubs-are-pivoting-towards-the-e-mobility-revolution">huge push</a> in recent years by Germany to become a hub for assembly lines, batteries and EVs in general is set to eclipse them by 2025 to become the <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/mapped-ev-battery-manufacturing-capacity-by-region/">second biggest world player</a> after China. </p>
<p>Germany benefits from having had a larger auto industry for the past few decades than the UK, due to a much more joined up system of education, government and manufacturers working together. <a href="https://group.mercedes-benz.com/company/news/211202-supervisory-board-confirms-business-plan.html">This means</a> it <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/7/7/23198203/volkswagen-ev-battery-factory-power-co-investment">can invest</a> more into building battery factories and production lines. If the UK wants a bigger share of this business, it will need to invest more and think more strategically. </p>
<p>This is not like 60 years ago, when Prime Minister Harold Wilson <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/political-science/2013/sep/19/harold-wilson-white-heat-technology-speech">invested in science and technology</a> to help drive innovations that were as yet unknown. Today, we have the technologies, but need to develop the necessary systems and infrastructure. If the UK is to put itself at the heart of the EV boom, it needs a <a href="https://www.pmi.org/-/media/pmi/documents/public/pdf/research/research-summaries/flyvbjerg_megaprojects.pdf">mega project-level investment</a> to make it work – and quickly. The ball is very much in the politicians’ court.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Stacey receives funding from ERDF (Eastern New Energy and South Eastern New Energy) and is consulting on UK Gigafactory development via Anglia Ruskin University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Ivory receives funding from ERDF, FORTE (Sweden).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elisha Rasif receives funding from ERDF for the Eastern New Energy (ENE) project in the UK.
</span></em></p>Having once led Europe in zero-carbon cars, the UK has some catching up to do.Tom Stacey, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, Anglia Ruskin UniversityChris Ivory, Director of the Innovative Management Practice Research Centre, Anglia Ruskin UniversityElisha Rasif, Associate Lecturer in Supply Chain Management, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1906272022-09-23T12:34:32Z2022-09-23T12:34:32ZSurging sales of large gasoline pickups and SUVs are undermining carbon reductions from electric cars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486193/original/file-20220922-13134-x4skx7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C7%2C2393%2C1344&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pickup trucks for sale at a Michigan dealership.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">John DeCicco</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Replacing petroleum fuels with electricity is crucial for curbing climate change because it cuts carbon dioxide emissions from transportation – the largest source of U.S. global warming emissions and a growing source worldwide. Even including the impacts of generating electricity to run them, electric vehicles <a href="http://dx.doi.org/%2010.1257/pol.20190390">provide clear environmental benefits</a>. </p>
<p>Plug-in vehicles are making great progress, with their <a href="https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates">share of U.S. car and light truck sales </a> jumping from 2% to 4% in 2020-2021 and projected to exceed 6% by the end of 2022. But sales of gas-guzzling pickups and SUVs <a href="https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/light-trucks-now-outselling-cars/">are also surging</a>. This other face of the market subverts electric cars’ carbon-cutting progress. </p>
<p>As a researcher who studies <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=wQ5IYG4AAAAJ&hl=en">transportation and climate change</a>, it’s clear to me that EVs provide large carbon reductions that will grow as the electric grid shifts to carbon-free energy. But fleetwide emissions, including vehicles of all types and ages, are what ultimately matters for the climate. </p>
<p>While the latest policy advances will speed the transition to EVs, actual <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00921-7">emission reductions could be hastened</a> by tightening greenhouse gas emissions standards, especially for the larger gasoline-powered personal trucks that dominate transportation’s carbon footprint. Because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf4d2">it takes 20 years to largely replace the on-road automobile fleet</a>, gas vehicles bought today will still be driving and emitting carbon dioxide in 2040 and beyond. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">California has adopted regulations that will phase out sales of new cars powered only by gasoline in the state by 2035, a shift that is expected to drive similar policies in other states.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Public policy progress</h2>
<p>Plugging in rather than pumping gas <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/electricvehicles/reducing-pollution-electric-vehicles">reduces both global warming and smog-forming pollution</a>. It avoids the ecological harm of petroleum production and reduces the economic and security risks of a world oil market coupled to totalitarian regimes such as those of Russia and in the Middle East. </p>
<p>On the good news front, automakers are offering ever more EV choices and promising all-electric fleets within 15 years or so. Two recent policy developments will help turn such promises into reality. </p>
<p>One is California’s recent <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-moves-accelerate-100-new-zero-emission-vehicle-sales-2035">update to its zero-emission vehicle program</a>. The new regulations will require that by 2035, 100% of new light vehicles sold in California must be qualifying zero-emission vehicles, allowing for a limited number of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Other states that historically have adopted California’s emission standards may follow its lead, so cars running only on gasoline could ultimately be banned across 40% of the U.S. new car market. </p>
<p>In addition, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/08/12/inflation-reduction-act-house-vote/">Inflation Reduction Act</a> recently signed by President Biden includes new incentives for EVs and subsidies for domestic production of EVs, batteries and critical minerals. The new policy <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/electric-vehicle-tax-credits-6500157">targets incentives in several ways</a>, disqualifying high-income consumers, capping the price of qualifying vehicles, providing incentives for used EVs, and restricting the tax credits to EVs built in the U.S. and Canada. It complements the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/09/14/fact-sheet-president-bidens-economic-plan-drives-americas-electric-vehicle-manufacturing-boom/">US$7.5 billion for building a national EV charging network</a> authorized by the infrastructure bill that the Biden administration brokered in 2021. </p>
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<h2>The consumption conundrum</h2>
<p>In spite of rapidly growing sales, however, EVs have not yet measurably cut carbon. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data indicates that the rate of carbon dioxide reduction from new vehicles has <a href="https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends">all but stalled, while vehicle mass and power have reached all-time highs</a>. </p>
<p>Why? The surging popularity of low-fuel-economy pickups and SUVs. My analysis of the EPA data shows that through 2021, the higher emissions from market shifts to larger, more powerful vehicles swamp the potential carbon dioxide reductions from EVs <a href="https://www.carsclimate.com/2022/09/truck-vs-EV-CO2-gap-thru-2021.html">by more than a factor of three</a>. </p>
<p>Including the largest personal pickup trucks, which are omitted from the EPA’s public data, would further increase the gasoline vehicle emissions that overwhelm EV carbon reductions. Because vehicles <a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/809952">remain on the road for so long</a>, excessive emissions from popular but under-regulated pickups and SUVs will harm the climate for many years. </p>
<h2>Complications of clean-car rules</h2>
<p>A reason for this conundrum is that <a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/regulations-greenhouse-gas-emissions-passenger-cars-and">clean-car standards</a> are averaged across the overall fleets of cars and light trucks that automakers sell. When a manufacturer increases its sales of EVs and other high-efficiency vehicles, it can sell a greater number of less fuel-efficient vehicles while still meeting regulatory requirements. </p>
<p>The standards are structured in several ways that further weaken their effectiveness. The targets an automaker has to meet <a href="https://www.autonews.com/article/20160814/OEM11/308159946/is-cafe-making-cars-bigger">get weaker if it makes its vehicles larger</a>. Vehicles classified as light trucks – including four-wheel-drive and large SUVs, as well as vans and pickups – are held to weaker standards than those classified as cars. </p>
<p>What’s worse, a regulatory loophole allows the largest pickups to effectively evade meaningful carbon constraints. Such vehicles are classified as “work trucks” even though they are sold and priced as luxury personal vehicles. An ongoing horsepower war gives these massive “<a href="https://twitter.com/uhalevi/status/1333077860119171072">suburban cowboy</a>” trucks capabilities far beyond those of the relatively spartan pickups once used by cost-conscious businesses. </p>
<h2>Toward faster emission reductions</h2>
<p>In spite of falling prices and rising sales, electric cars <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/opinion/contributors/2019/01/11/electric-cars-evs/2535200002/">still face hurdles</a> before they can fully sweep the market. <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32600212/ev-charging-time/">The time it takes to charge an electric car</a> may remain an inconvenience for many consumers. For example, commonly available Level 2 chargers take <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/rural/ev/toolkit/ev-basics/charging-speeds">four to 10 hours</a> to fully recharge an EV battery.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Buying an EV requires consumers to consider where and how quickly they want to charge their car.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Such obstacles make it <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a35118090/are-we-ready-for-the-zero-emission-future/">unclear whether the car market can move as quickly</a> to an all-electric future as some hope. </p>
<p>Emissions could be cut more quickly if regulators reform clean car standards to close the loopholes that allow excess emissions. California is taking a step in this direction by revising its methods for determining new fleet emission limits for gasoline vehicles. Also hopeful is the recent <a href="https://www.edf.org/media/gm-and-edf-announce-recommended-principles-epa-emissions-standards-model-year-2027-and-beyond">joint announcement by General Motors and the Environmental Defense Fund</a>, which notes the need to address the large light trucks as part of new standards targeting a 60% reduction in fleetwide greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. </p>
<p>As the world transitions to EVs, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/electric-vehicles/">their size and energy use will matter</a>, too. Massive EVs will require large batteries, and hence more <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-evs-without-chinas-supply-chain-is-hard-but-not-impossible-3-supply-chain-experts-outline-a-strategy-189453">critical minerals whose supplies are limited</a>. They will demand more electricity that, even if renewable, is <a href="https://climate.law.columbia.edu/content/impacts-renewable-energy-facilities">not fully free of environmental impacts</a>. Sustainability will suffer if the roads are ruled more by the likes of <a href="https://www.gmc.com/electric/hummer-ev">Hummer EVs</a> rather than <a href="https://www.tesla.com/model3">Tesla Model 3s</a>. </p>
<p>Policymakers and environmental organizations have mounted major promotional campaigns in support of EVs. But there are no similar efforts to encourage consumers to <a href="http://www.autonews.com/article/20180521/MOBILITY/180529995/1137">choose the most efficient vehicle</a> that meets their needs. Significant numbers of Americans <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-november-2019/toc/2/">now believe that global warming is for real and of concern</a>. Connecting such beliefs to everyday vehicle purchases is a missing link in clean-car strategy. </p>
<p>These sobering car market trends highlight the risk of letting visions of an all-electric future mask the need for better decisions today – by policymakers, consumers and automakers – to more quickly reduce emissions across the entire vehicle fleet. </p>
<p><em>This piece updates an <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-make-the-us-auto-fleet-greener-increasing-fuel-efficiency-matters-more-than-selling-electric-vehicles-153085">article</a> originally published on January 28, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190627/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John M. DeCicco, Ph.D., is a Research Professor Emeritus retired from the University of Michigan. He remains professionally active in energy research and teaches the "Mobility and the Environment" module as part of the University of Michigan's online Foundations of Mobility credential. He currently receives no funding, but his past work on vehicle efficiency was supported by environmental organizations, foundations and federal agencies. </span></em></p>Electric cars are getting a lot of PR buzz, but automakers are still promoting – and many consumers are buying – vehicles that are major gas guzzlers.John DeCicco, Research Professor Emeritus, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1907432022-09-16T05:16:33Z2022-09-16T05:16:33ZWe may be underestimating just how bad carbon-belching SUVs are for the climate – and for our health<p>Australia’s love for fuel-hungry and fuel-inefficient SUVs is hampering our ability to bring transport emissions down. SUVs make up half of all new car sales last year, a National Transport Commission <a href="https://www.ntc.gov.au/light-vehicle-emissions-intensity-australia">report</a> revealed this week – up from a quarter of all sales a decade ago.</p>
<p>As a result, the carbon emitted by all new cars sold in Australia dropped only 2% in 2021, the report found. Sales of battery electric vehicles tripled last year, but still make up just 0.23% of all cars and light commercial vehicles on our roads.</p>
<p>In internationally peer-reviewed <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_5ccb87ff39e545809bd1f92872e3069a.pdf">research</a> earlier this year, we measured the emissions of five SUVs driving around Sydney, and our findings suggest the situation may actually be worse than the new report finds. </p>
<p>The National Transport Commission’s numbers are based on the “New European Drive Cycle” (NEDC) emissions test. Our research found the real-world emissions of SUVs are, on average, about 30% higher than the NEDC values. This means we are not reducing fleet average emissions by a few percent per year, but actually probably increasing them by a few percent every year. </p>
<h2>What the report found</h2>
<p>The transport sector is responsible for <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2020-volume-1.pdf">almost 20% of Australia’s emissions</a>, ranking third behind the electricity and agriculture sector. The first year of the COVID pandemic only reduced transport carbon dioxide emissions by about 7%, compared to 2019 emission levels.</p>
<p>Overall, Australia’s pride in carbon-belching transport is evident by the fact transport CO₂ emissions have risen 14% between 2005 and 2020. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-labors-new-tax-cut-on-electric-vehicles-wont-help-you-buy-one-anytime-soon-187847">Why Labor's new tax cut on electric vehicles won't help you buy one anytime soon</a>
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<p>SUVs are generally larger and heavier than other passenger cars, which means they need quite a bit more energy and fuel per kilometre of driving when compared with smaller, lighter cars.</p>
<p>Although SUV sales are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/03/ban-suv-adverts-to-meet-uk-climate-goals-report-urges">rising globally</a>, the Australian fleet is unique due to its large portion of SUVs in the on-road fleet, often with four-wheel-drive capability. </p>
<p>According to the National Transport Commission report, sales of four-wheel-drives and utes surged by more than 43,000 in 2021, while large SUV sales rose by around 25,000. </p>
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<p>Rapidly shifting to electric cars is an important way to bring emissions down. But the report found in 2021, just 2.8% of Australia’s car sales were electric. Compare this to 17% in Europe, 16% in China and 5% in the United States. </p>
<p>In Australia, there is still no option to buy an electric ute, and electric vehicles remain <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-labors-new-tax-cut-on-electric-vehicles-wont-help-you-buy-one-anytime-soon-187847">prohibitively expensive</a>. </p>
<h2>Measuring SUV emissions in Sydney</h2>
<p>There are a <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_041d08e4653743f5a4416f79fe1dbc13.pdf">range of methods</a> scientists use to measure vehicle emissions. </p>
<p>One popular method worldwide uses so-called “on-board portable emission monitoring systems”. These systems are effective because they enable second-by-second emissions testing under a variety of real-world driving conditions on the road. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) emissions test is conducted in the laboratory. It was also developed in the early 1970s and reflects unrealistic driving behaviour, because test facilities at the time could not deal with significant changes in speed.</p>
<p>We fitted five SUVs with a portable emission monitoring system and drove them a little over 100 kilometres around Sydney in various situations, such as in the city and on the freeway.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484833/original/file-20220915-1807-7cahyp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484833/original/file-20220915-1807-7cahyp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484833/original/file-20220915-1807-7cahyp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484833/original/file-20220915-1807-7cahyp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484833/original/file-20220915-1807-7cahyp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484833/original/file-20220915-1807-7cahyp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484833/original/file-20220915-1807-7cahyp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Testing on-board emissions from SUVs in Sydney.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Robin Smit</span></span>
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<p>We then compared our measurements with the <a href="https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/">Green Vehicle Guide</a> – the national guide to vehicle fuel consumption and environmental performance, which is also based on the NEDC test.</p>
<p>Our measurements of fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions were consistently higher. This varied from <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814">16% to 65% higher than NEDC values</a>, depending on the actual car and driving conditions. </p>
<p>On average, real-world fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions were both 27% higher than NEDC values. Importantly, this gap has increased substantially from <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_00dcaa41d8d046d3a7b84a65a2135bb7.pdf">about 10% in 2008</a>.</p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_00dcaa41d8d046d3a7b84a65a2135bb7.pdf">previous research</a> from 2019 found fleet average greenhouse gas emissions for new Australian cars and SUVs has probably been increasing by 2-3% percent per year since 2015, rather than the reported annual reduction by, for instance, the National Transport Commission. </p>
<p>This detailed analysis showed a sustained increase in vehicle weight and a shift to the sale of more four-wheel-drive cars (in other words, SUVs) are probably the main factors contributing to this change. </p>
<h2>More bad news for SUVs</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_041d08e4653743f5a4416f79fe1dbc13.pdf">We also recently</a> summarised the results of various emission measurement campaigns conducted in Australia and compared them with international studies. These include results from a study of vehicle emissions in a tunnel, and a study of vehicle emissions measured on the road with remote sensing.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484846/original/file-20220915-6106-1t3tkh.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484846/original/file-20220915-6106-1t3tkh.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484846/original/file-20220915-6106-1t3tkh.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484846/original/file-20220915-6106-1t3tkh.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484846/original/file-20220915-6106-1t3tkh.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484846/original/file-20220915-6106-1t3tkh.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484846/original/file-20220915-6106-1t3tkh.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Measuring vehicle emissions with remote sensing in Brisbane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Robin Smit</span></span>
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<p>We found modern diesel SUVs and cars or diesel light commercial vehicles (such as utes) in Australia and New Zealand have relatively high emissions of nitrogen oxides and soot – both important air pollutants. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/1/254">Around 2,600 deaths</a> are attributed to fine-particle air pollution in Australia each year. Transport and industrial activities (such as mining) are the main sources of this. </p>
<p>And in 2015, an <a href="https://nespurban.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/CAULRR06_SubmissionFuelQualityStandardsAct2000_Mar2017.pdf">estimated 1,715 deaths</a> were attributed to vehicle exhaust emissions – 42% more than the road toll that year.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-rapid-shift-to-electric-vehicles-can-save-24-000-lives-and-leave-us-148bn-better-off-over-the-next-2-decades-190243">A rapid shift to electric vehicles can save 24,000 lives and leave us $148bn better off over the next 2 decades</a>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_fc46b0a0b8ec45a0ae1ab01499e145d4.pdf">remote sensing emissions data</a> suggest 1% of one to two-year-old diesel SUVs and 2% of one-to-two year old diesel light commercial vehicles have issues with their particulate filters, leading to high soot emissions. </p>
<p>These percentages are high when compared with a <a href="https://ee.ricardo.com/news/remote-sensing-demonstrating-diesel-particulate-f">similar study</a> conducted in the United Kingdom, which could not find any clear evidence of filter issues.</p>
<h2>Three ways to move forward</h2>
<p>Ever increasing SUVs sales are a drag on successfully reducing Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions. So what should we do? </p>
<p>Of course there are several things to consider, but in terms of fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions, we believe there are three main points.</p>
<p>First, we need to make sure we have realistic fuel use and emissions data. This means the National Transport Commission and Green Vehicle Guide should stop using the NEDC values and shift to more realistic emissions data. We acknowledge this is not a simple matter and it requires a lot more testing. </p>
<p>Second, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/6/3444">we need to</a> electrify transport as fast as we can, wherever we can. This is crucial, but not the whole solution.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814">The road to new fuel efficiency rules is filled with potholes. Here's how Australia can avoid them</a>
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<p>To ensure Australia meets its net-zero emissions target, we also need to seriously consider energy and fuel efficiency in transport. This could be by promoting the sales of smaller and lightweight vehicles, thereby optimising transport for energy efficiency.</p>
<p>In all of this, it will be essential for car manufacturers to take responsibility for their increasing contributions to climate change. From this perspective, they should move away from marketing profitable fossil-fueled SUVs that clog up our roads, and instead offer and promote lighter, smaller and electric vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Smit is the founder and director at Transport Energy/Emission Research Pty Ltd (TER) and an Adjunct Associate Professor at University of Technology Sydney.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nic Surawski has worked on projects funded by city councils, alternative engine design companies, the Australian Coal Association Research Program, the federal Department of Environment and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. Nic is a member of the Clean Air Society of Australia and New Zealand.</span></em></p>SUVs made up half of all new car sales last year. They’re a drag on Australia successfully reducing its total greenhouse gas emissions.Robin Smit, Adjunct Associate Professor, University of Technology SydneyNic Surawski, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Engineering, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1898712022-09-12T04:10:34Z2022-09-12T04:10:34ZAustralia is failing on electric vehicles. California shows it’s possible to pick up the pace<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483428/original/file-20220908-14-lnpk8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C651%2C3470%2C2366&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among the many similarities between California and Australia, both are impacted by bushfires and climate change, and both are home to <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/fuel-economy-in-major-car-markets">larger cars and trucks</a> than is the norm in developed countries. They are dissimilar, though, when it comes to electric vehicles and vehicle regulations. While California has been pursuing low-carbon and electric vehicles for decades, Australia has trailed most developed nations. </p>
<p>Plug-in electric vehicles accounted for <a href="https://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/">16% of new light-duty vehicle sales</a> in California in the first half of 2022. In Australia, electric vehicle sales are only <a href="https://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/">2% of the market</a>, and mostly from one carmaker, Tesla. </p>
<p>Australia, a country with <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/19/australia-plans-fuel-efficiency-standards-to-boost-electric-car-supply.html">no vehicle fuel economy</a> or <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/car-industry-adopts-voluntary-co2-emissions-standards-to-2030-what-this-means-for-you/">CO₂ emissions regulations</a>, is debating how to move forward. The local auto industry <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/revealed-car-industry-s-secret-emissions-plan-would-slow-electric-vehicle-uptake-20220805-p5b7pe.html">suggests Australia needs a slow transition</a> to electric vehicles and should lag the United States, Europe, China and neighbouring New Zealand. Compared to proposed European vehicle emission standards of <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/eu-co2-pvs-performance-2020-aug21_0.pdf">43 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometre in 2030</a>, the local industry proposes <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/australias-new-car-lobby-accused-of-white-anting-plans-to-cut-co2">98-143g CO₂/km</a> (for light cars and SUVs).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814">The road to new fuel efficiency rules is filled with potholes. Here's how Australia can avoid them</a>
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<p>The proposed Australian target would result in a slow transition, which <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142152200369X">new research</a> suggests will have little or no effect on the transport sector’s CO₂ emissions. </p>
<p>The rationale for a slow transition is the same as was heard for decades in California: electric vehicle prices are too high, there isn’t enough infrastructure to support these vehicles, their driving ranges are too short, and certain models aren’t available (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-30/fact-check-sussan-ley-electric-ute/101386412">electric utes</a>, for example). </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-surprising-history-of-how-electric-vehicles-have-played-the-long-game-and-won-189127">The surprising history of how electric vehicles have played the long game and won</a>
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<p>These concerns have some validity, but are largely out of date. Australia in 2022 faces a very different situation from California when it started down the electric vehicle path. </p>
<p>Let’s deal with why each of these four concerns might now be overstated.</p>
<h2>1. Limited range</h2>
<p>Drivers in both Australia and California travel similar distances per year. In both regions, most trips are well <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15568318.2018.1463416">within electric vehicle range</a>. </p>
<p>Further, in both regions most households own two vehicles. This means buyers can, if needed, use another vehicle for longer trips. </p>
<p>Electric vehicle <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/download.shtml">range has also improved</a>: the average range of available electric vehicles in 2013 when electric vehicle sales in California reached Australia’s current level of 2% was 179 kilometres (111 miles). Now, it’s 443 kilometres.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483873/original/file-20220912-68830-ej88qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vertical bar chart show increases in average range of all electric vehicles sold in US from 2012 to 2022" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483873/original/file-20220912-68830-ej88qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483873/original/file-20220912-68830-ej88qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483873/original/file-20220912-68830-ej88qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483873/original/file-20220912-68830-ej88qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483873/original/file-20220912-68830-ej88qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483873/original/file-20220912-68830-ej88qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483873/original/file-20220912-68830-ej88qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/explaining-electric-plug-hybrid-electric-vehicles">Chart: The Conversation. Data: EPA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>2. Lack of charging infrastructure</h2>
<p>In California and other markets like Norway, most early electric vehicle buyers <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920918301330">charge at home</a> on their driveway or in a garage. In Australia even more people live in a detached house than in California. Drivers in these households could charge their vehicle at home, which <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192091930896X">reduces the need</a> for public charging stations. </p>
<p>Public charging may be needed to support occasional charging, to enable longer journeys and to support the smaller proportion of households without home charging. But public infrastructure is not a prerequisite for early market growth. </p>
<p>Australia already has as many charging stations <a href="https://www.savvy.com.au/media-releases/australian-electric-vehicle-charging-points-report-do-we-have-enough-2022/">per person</a> as <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/zero-emission-vehicle-and-infrastructure-statistics">California had in 2016</a>. In fact, Australia might be only a few years behind. </p>
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<h2>3. High prices</h2>
<p>In Australia the average new car is AU$40,729 (US$28,000). Electric vehicles with ranges of around 400km could be made available at that price. </p>
<p>For example, the 2023 Chevrolet Bolt starts at US$25,600 (AU$37,000) in the US. And until 2020 the Renault ZOE was sold in Australia for AU$37,400. Both models have a range of about 400km. </p>
<p>Consumers have also been shown to be <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928765511000200">willing to pay more</a> for an electric vehicle compared to a conventional vehicle. This might be partly due to the <a href="https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/how-much-does-it-cost-to-maintain-an-electric-car-129118/">savings on fuel and maintenance costs</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-labors-new-tax-cut-on-electric-vehicles-wont-help-you-buy-one-anytime-soon-187847">Why Labor's new tax cut on electric vehicles won't help you buy one anytime soon</a>
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<h2>4. Lack of models</h2>
<p>In 2022, <a href="http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/">316 electric and 162 plug-in hybrid</a> models are on sale globally. These models include SUVs, utes and pick-up trucks. </p>
<p>The lack of choice and of lower-cost electric vehicles in Australia is because carmakers <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516307570">prefer</a> to send these models to markets with supportive electric vehicle policies . Making these models available in Australia may be as simple as giving carmakers the motivation to sell them there.</p>
<p>Australia may be well positioned for a rapid transition to electric vehicles if it adopts more supportive policies. If Australia brings in policies such as ambitious fuel-economy standards or a zero-emission-vehicle sales mandate, the country could benefit in the <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c08581">same ways as California did</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-evs-without-chinas-supply-chain-is-hard-but-not-impossible-3-supply-chain-experts-outline-a-strategy-189453">Making EVs without China's supply chain is hard, but not impossible – 3 supply chain experts outline a strategy</a>
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<h2>All that’s needed now is supportive policy</h2>
<p>Supportive policies like these help set the stage for the early electric vehicle market to grow. They do this by:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>giving carmakers the confidence to develop and supply electric vehicles at multiple price points, in multiple body styles and with long driving ranges</p></li>
<li><p>giving providers confidence to roll out charging infrastructure</p></li>
<li><p>giving consumers the supply of electric vehicles they are waiting for. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>An electric vehicle mandate can also <a href="https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/changementsclimatiques/vze/rapport-mise-oeuvre-2018-2020-en.pdf">protect consumers from supply ebbs and flows</a> that are common in import-only markets.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-holding-back-electric-cars-in-australia-weve-long-known-the-answer-and-its-time-to-clear-the-road-188443">Who's holding back electric cars in Australia? We've long known the answer – and it's time to clear the road</a>
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<h2>Other nations have been down this road</h2>
<p>Australia is not the first nation to grapple with these challenges. South Korea, despite being a global producer of electric vehicles, was experiencing slow domestic market growth. Many Korean electric vehicles were exported to regions with policies more friendly to the technology. </p>
<p>The government responded with <a href="https://its.ucdavis.edu/blog-post/californias-zev-rule-a-model-this-time-for-korea-with-help-from-its-davis-researchers/">policies to support electric vehicles</a>. Since then, domestic sales have tripled. South Korea is now the seventh-largest electric vehicle market in the world, up from 11th in 2019. </p>
<p>And as federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/address-national-ev-summit">noted at the EV Summit</a> last month, with the right policy settings, Sweden increased its proportion of electric vehicle sales from 18% to 62% in just two years.</p>
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<iframe title="EV sales in Australia, South Korea and Sweden, 2012-2022" aria-label="Grouped Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-2Z6ZF" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2Z6ZF/7/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
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<p>Similar approaches could yield similar results for Australia. While some nations may need a slower transition for a variety of reasons, Australia need not be one of them. Concerns about range, infrastructure and model availability can be readily overcome. </p>
<p>The country is well placed for early market growth. All states already offer <a href="https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/which-australian-states-offer-the-best-ev-incentives-131927/">incentives</a> for electric vehicle buyers, including rebates, registration discounts and road tax exemptions. </p>
<p>All that may be needed is for the federal government to adopt policies that support electric vehicles. Based on the remarkable improvements in the technology and what has been learned in California and elsewhere, Australia is well placed for rapid market growth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189871/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Hardman receives funding from the California Air Resources Board, the California Department of Transportation, the U.S. Department of Transportation, and CliamteWorks Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Sperling has a seat on the California Air Resources Board. The institutes he directs receive funding from foundations, automotive and energy companies, and local, state and national governments.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gil Tal directs the Electric Vehicle Research Center, which receives funding from foundations, automakers, energy companies, and state and national policymakers.</span></em></p>We’ve heard all the concerns about switching to electric cars before. But California, a market with many similarities, shows why Australia is well placed to accelerate its transition.Scott Hardman, Professional Researcher, Electric Vehicle Research Center, University of California, DavisDaniel Sperling, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Founding Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, DavisGil Tal, Director, The Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle (PH&EV) Research Center, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1894532022-08-31T12:30:06Z2022-08-31T12:30:06ZMaking EVs without China’s supply chain is hard, but not impossible – 3 supply chain experts outline a strategy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481667/original/file-20220829-6542-2d2rkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1708%2C1785%2C2823%2C1631&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Automaker GMC shows off its Hummer EVs at a plant in Detroit.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/general-view-of-gmc-hummer-evs-is-pictured-on-november-17-news-photo/1236626057">Nic Antaya/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two electrifying moves in recent weeks have the potential to ignite electric vehicle demand in the United States. First, Congress passed the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/16/1117762225/biden-signs-inflation-reduction-act-into-law">Inflation Reduction Act</a>, expanding federal tax rebates for EV purchases. Then <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/board/books/2022/082522/prores22-12.pdf">California approved rules</a> to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035.</p>
<p>The Inflation Reduction Act extends the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/president-obama-announces-24-billion-funding-support-next-generation-electric-vehicles">Obama-era EV tax credit</a> of up to US$7,500. But it includes some high hurdles. Its <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/22/1118052620/tax-credit-electric-cars-vehicles-tesla-gm-inflation-reduction-act-climate">country-of-origin rules</a> require that EVs – and an increasing percentage of their components and critical minerals – be sourced from the U.S. or countries that have free-trade agreements with the U.S. The law expressly forbids tax credits for vehicles with any components or critical minerals sourced from a “<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47202">foreign entity of concern</a>,” such as China or Russia.</p>
<p>That’s not so simple when China <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/hp-earnings-outlook-51661537161">controls</a> 60% of the world’s lithium mining, 77% of battery cell capacity and 60% of battery component manufacturing. Many American EV makers, including <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/04/how-chinas-lithium-leverage-affects-tesla-other-ev-makers/">Tesla</a>, rely heavily on battery materials from China.</p>
<p>The U.S. needs a national strategy to build an EV ecosystem if it hopes to catch up. As experts in <a href="https://www.hy-mak.com/">supply</a> <a href="https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/decisions-operations-and-technology-management/faculty/tang">chain</a> <a href="https://tinglongdai.com/">management</a>, we have some ideas.</p>
<h2>Why the EV industry depends heavily on China</h2>
<p>How did the U.S. fall so far behind?</p>
<p>Back in 2009, the Obama administration pledged <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/president-obama-announces-24-billion-funding-support-next-generation-electric-vehicles">$2.4 billion</a> to support the country’s fledgling EV industry. But demand grew slowly, and battery manufacturers such as A123 Systems and Ener1 failed to scale up their production. Both succumbed to financial pressure and were acquired by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-batteries/troubled-u-s-battery-makers-recharge-with-overseas-investors-idUKL2E8J99JL20120809">Chinese and Russian</a> investors.</p>
<p>China took the lead in the EV market through an aggressive mix of carrots and sticks. Its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/exclusive-china-talks-with-automakers-ev-subsidy-extension-sources-2022-05-18/">consumer subsidies</a> raised demand at home, and Beijing and other major cities set <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/11/28/beijing-limits-on-car-registration-boost-electric-vehicles/#:%7E:text=Beijing%27s%202016%20quota%20for%20EVs,happen%20for%20domestically%20produced%20EVs.">licensing quotas</a> mandating a minimum share of EV sales.</p>
<p>China also established a world-dominating battery supply chain by <a href="https://www.stradeproject.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/STRADE_PB_02-2018_One_Belt_One_Road.pdf">securing overseas mineral supplies</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/business/china-catl-electric-car-batteries.html?">heavily subsidizing its battery manufacturers</a>.</p>
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<p>Today, the U.S. domestic EV supply chain is far from adequate to meet its goals. The new U.S. tax credits are designed to help turn that around, but building a resilient EV supply chain will inevitably entail competing with China for limited resources.</p>
<p>A comprehensive national strategy entails measures for the short, medium and long term.</p>
<h2>Short-term: What can be done now?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-10-bestselling-evs-in-2022-so-far-11651165570">Six of the 10 best-selling EV</a> models in 2022 are already assembled in the U.S., fulfilling the Inflation Reduction Act’s <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/inflation-reduction-act">final assembly location clause</a>. The Hyundai-Kia alliance, which has three of the other four bestsellers, plans to open an EV assembly line in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hyundai-motor-considers-speeding-up-construction-us-ev-plant-yonhap-2022-08-22/">Georgia</a>. Volkswagen has also started assembling its ID.4 electric SUV in <a href="https://media.vw.com/en-us/releases/1698">Tennessee</a>.</p>
<p>The challenge is batteries. Besides the Tesla-Panasonic factories in <a href="https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/panasonic-to-open-ev-battery-factory-in-kansas/627316/">Nevada and planned in Kansas</a>, U.S.-based battery manufacturers <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/02/11/us-battery-production-china-europe/">trail their Chinese counterparts</a> in both size and growth.</p>
<p>For the U.S. to scale up its own production, it needs to rely on strategic partners overseas. The Inflation Reduction Act allows imports of critical minerals from countries with free trade agreements to still qualify for incentives, but not imports of battery components. This means overseas suppliers like Korea’s “Big Three” – LG Chem, SK Innovation and Samsung SDI – which supply <a href="http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=97705">26%</a> of the world’s EV batteries, are shut out, even though the U.S. and Korea have a free trade agreement. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Sankey chart, also known as a spaghetti chart, shows the flow of cobalt Congo, with some resources in the rest of the world, through to the production of EVs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481890/original/file-20220830-19222-r43fk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481890/original/file-20220830-19222-r43fk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481890/original/file-20220830-19222-r43fk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481890/original/file-20220830-19222-r43fk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481890/original/file-20220830-19222-r43fk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481890/original/file-20220830-19222-r43fk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481890/original/file-20220830-19222-r43fk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The bulk of the world’s cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo but processed and turned into lithium-ion battery components by Chinese companies. This chart shows the pathways from mining to EVs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/assets/pdfs/battery-critical-materials-presentation.pdf">Based on an NREL presentation in 2020</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association has <a href="https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220817000692">asked Congress</a> to make an exception for Korean-made EVs and batteries.</p>
<p>In the spirit of “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-24/-onshoring-is-so-last-year-the-new-lingo-is-friend-shoring">friend-shoring</a>,” the Biden administration could think of a temporary waiver as a stopgap measure that makes it easier for Korean battery makers to move more of their supply chain to the U.S., such as LG’s planned battery plants in partnerships <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/lg-energy-solution-gm-build-21-bln-battery-factory-us-2022-01-25/">with GM</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/314d0c95-ceef-492f-8943-06038967ba88">Honda</a>.</p>
<p>The 2021 Infrastructure Act also provided <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/13/fact-sheet-the-biden-harris-electric-vehicle-charging-action-plan/">$5 billion</a> to expand charging infrastructure, which <a href="https://article.images.consumerreports.org/image/upload/v1657127210/prod/content/dam/CRO-Images-2022/Cars/07July/2022_Consumer_Reports_BEV_and_LCF_Survey_Report.pdf">surveys show is critical</a> to bolstering demand.</p>
<h2>Medium-term: Diversifying lithium and cobalt supplies</h2>
<p>A strong and concerted effort in trade and diplomacy is necessary for the U.S. to secure critical mineral supplies.</p>
<p>As EV sales rise, the world is expected to face a lithium shortage by <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-world-enough-lithium-resources">2025</a>. In addition to lithium, cobalt is needed for high-performance battery chemistries.</p>
<p>The problem? The Democratic Republic of the Congo is where 70% of the world’s cobalt is mined, and Chinese companies control <a href="https://globaledge.msu.edu/blog/post/57136/congos-cobalt-controversy">80%</a> of that. The distant second-largest producer is <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-cobalt.pdf">Russia</a>.</p>
<p>The Biden administration’s “friend-shoring” vision has a chance only if it can diversify the lithium and cobalt supply chains.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bars on a map show countries with the most critical mineral production." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481904/original/file-20220830-35607-7mu3w2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481904/original/file-20220830-35607-7mu3w2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481904/original/file-20220830-35607-7mu3w2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481904/original/file-20220830-35607-7mu3w2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481904/original/file-20220830-35607-7mu3w2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481904/original/file-20220830-35607-7mu3w2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481904/original/file-20220830-35607-7mu3w2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lithium, cobalt and nickel are critical components in many EV batteries. The largest 2021 production sources included the Democratic Republic of Congo for cobalt; Australia, Chile and China for lithium; and Indonesia, the Philippines and Russia for nickel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/mineral-commodity-summaries">The Conversation, USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-cars-batteries-lithium-triangle-latin-america-11660141017?st=vvmy6presyrpspk&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink">“Lithium Triangle”</a> of South America is one region to invest in. Also, Australia, a key U.S. ally, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/">leads the world in lithium production</a> and possesses <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021-cobalt.pdf">rich cobalt deposits</a>. Waste from many of Australia’s <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d142bb46-1bc0-49bd-8005-0833497b84e0">copper mines also contains cobalt</a>, lowering the cost. GM has reached an agreement with the Australian mining giant <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d142bb46-1bc0-49bd-8005-0833497b84e0">Glencore</a> to mine and process cobalt in Western Australia for its Ohio battery plant with LG Chem, bypassing China.</p>
<p>A way to avoid cobalt altogether also exists: lithium-iron-phosphate batteries are about <a href="https://www.morningbrew.com/series/battery-tech-for-evs-and-beyond/stories/2022/04/26/a-previously-ignored-battery-chemistry-is-now-surging-in-popularity-here-s-why">30% cheaper</a> to make because they use minerals that are easy to find and plentiful. However, LFP batteries are heavier and have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/tesla-switching-to-lfp-batteries-in-all-standard-range-cars.html">less power</a> and range per unit.</p>
<p>For years, Chinese companies like <a href="https://www.onecharge.biz/blog/how-china-came-to-dominate-the-market-for-lithium-batteries-and-why-the-u-s-cannot-copy-their-model/">CATL and BYD</a> were the only ones making LFP batteries. But <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/26/why-lfp-batteries-are-poised-to-bring-down-entry-level-ev-prices/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALB4ZijqV3Jxh5Z1TCOa5rV93l4M6Qu10EW0V1yRHanqmGpTrC6zp3gyS7j1X3e20CHV5z4-3Zmaao334VcwyjN-EufmUz63Z9V8x3z-ecjbH2vJNLZJ2DQfQ50MAuanuEWwmLwX9f8sSQ0e0txwX2XZZ8i0O9OE7bOHWkRb14aD">the patent rights associated with LFP batteries expire this year</a>, opening up an important opportunity for the U.S.</p>
<p>Since not everyone needs a high-end electric supercar, affordable EVs powered by LFP batteries are an option. In fact, Tesla now offers <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/581261/tesla-lfp-battery-nearly-half-deliveries/">Model 3s with LFP</a> batteries that can travel about 270 miles on a charge.</p>
<p>The 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law set aside <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/biden-administration-announces-316-billion-bipartisan-infrastructure-law-boost-domestic">$3.16 billion</a> to support domestic battery supply chains. With the Inflation Reduction Act’s emphasis on supporting more affordable EVs – it <a href="https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/treasury-releases-guidance-on-consumer-2136303/">has price caps</a> for vehicles to qualify for incentives – these funds will be needed to help scale up domestic LFP manufacturing.</p>
<h2>Long-term: US critical mineral production</h2>
<p>Replacing overseas critical materials with domestic mining falls under long-term planning.</p>
<p>The scale of current domestic mining is minuscule, and new mining operations can take <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-30/despite-biden-battery-metal-push-mine-permits-still-take-years">seven to 10 years</a> to establish because of the lengthy permitting process. Lithium deposits exist in <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-seeks-new-lithium-sources-as-demand-for-clean-energy-grows">California, Maine, Nevada and North Carolina</a>, and there are cobalt resources in <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-cobalt.pdf">Minnesota and Idaho</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, to build an <a href="https://hbr.org/2009/07/restoring-american-competitiveness">industrial commons</a> for EVs, the U.S. must continue to invest in research and development of new battery technologies.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A field sectioned into rectangles with bright turquoise water or white salt stretches over several miles of otherwise empty landscape with mountains far in the distance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481885/original/file-20220830-31761-l1czz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481885/original/file-20220830-31761-l1czz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481885/original/file-20220830-31761-l1czz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481885/original/file-20220830-31761-l1czz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481885/original/file-20220830-31761-l1czz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481885/original/file-20220830-31761-l1czz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481885/original/file-20220830-31761-l1czz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pools of brine containing lithium carbonate stretch across a lithium mine in the Atacama Desert of Chile. Local opposition can be a challenge to mining proposals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-aerial-view-pools-of-brine-containing-lithium-news-photo/1418002370">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Also, end-of-life battery recycling is essential to the sustainability of EVs. The industry has been kicking the can down the road on this, as <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2022/08/01/electric-car-batteries-lasting-longer-than-predicted-delays-recycling-programs/?sh=4aa2cb675332">recycling demand has been minuscule</a> thus far given the longevity of batteries. Yet, as a proactive step, the Inflation Reduction Act specifically permits battery content recycled in North America to qualify for the critical mineral clause.</p>
<p>To make this happen, the federal and state governments could use takeback legislation similar to producer responsibility laws for electronic waste enacted in <a href="http://www.electronicstakeback.com/promote-good-laws/state-legislation/">more than 20 states</a>, which stipulate that producers bear the responsibility for collecting, transporting and recycling end-of-cycle electronic products.</p>
<h2>What’s ahead</h2>
<p>With the new law, the Biden administration has set its sights on a future transportation system that is built in the U.S. and runs on electricity. But there are supply chain obstacles, and the U.S. will need both incentives and regulations to make it happen.</p>
<p>California’s announcement will help. Under the Clean Air Act, California has a waiver that allows it to set policies more strict than federal law. Other states can choose to follow California’s policies. <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/board/books/2022/082522/prores22-12.pdf">Seventeen other states</a> have adopted California’s emissions standards. At least three, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-sets-2035-zero-emission-passenger-car-goal-2021-09-09/">New York</a>, <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/wa-will-ban-new-gas-powered-cars-by-2035-following-cas-lead/">Washington</a> and <a href="https://nexusmedianews.com/top_story/baker-signs-massachusetts-climate-bill-into-law">Massachusetts</a>, have already announced plans to also phase out new gas-powered cars and light trucks by 2035.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189453/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China controls much of the global EV supply chain, but electric vehicles that use its parts and minerals won’t qualify for new US EV tax credits. Can America build its own supply chain?Ho-Yin Mak, Associate Professor in Operations & Information Management, Georgetown UniversityChristopher S. Tang, Professor of Supply Chain Management, University of California, Los AngelesTinglong Dai, Professor of Operations Management & Business Analytics, Carey Business School, Johns Hopkins UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1878472022-07-31T20:05:48Z2022-07-31T20:05:48ZWhy Labor’s new tax cut on electric vehicles won’t help you buy one anytime soon<p>The Albanese government has <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/electric-car-discount-bill-introduced-parliament?utm_source=miragenews&utm_medium=miragenews&utm_campaign=news">introduced tax cuts</a> to electric vehicles in its first sitting week, <a href="https://twitter.com/Bowenchris/status/1552457351835176961?s=20&t=oP_tfHNcGY__oQXilm1Uvg">claiming</a> the proposed changes would be “good for motorists, good for climate action and good for fleet purchases”. They won’t, however, help most Australians afford one.</p>
<p>Labor plans to stop the “fringe benefits tax” applying to electric vehicles. This tax usually applies to all cars provided by an employer to an employee, either as part of a salary sacrifice arrangement or as a company car available for personal use. This means the winners of the tax change are high-end employees who can afford a high-priced electric vehicle such as a Tesla.</p>
<p>Rolling business fleets over to the secondhand market is an important way to make electric vehicles more affordable to everyday people. But this tax cut won’t see this happen anytime soon. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.racefor2030.com.au/fast-track-reports/?utm_campaign=318233_BEVs%20apology&utm_medium=email&utm_source=RACE%20FOR%202030%20Limited&dm_t=0,0,0,0,0#2">recent report</a> recommends a suite of other tax changes to lower electric vehicle prices and ownership costs. Australia can’t meet its target of 89% new car sales being electric by 2030 without significantly reforming the transport sector. Labor’s new tax cut is a far cry from what’s needed.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-could-rapidly-shift-to-clean-transport-if-we-had-a-strategy-so-we-put-this-plan-together-182598">Australia could rapidly shift to clean transport – if we had a strategy. So we put this plan together</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does a fringe benefits tax do?</h2>
<p>Australia’s transport sector <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/CC_MVSA0154-Report-Transport_V6-FA_Low-Res_Single-Pages.pdf%22%22">accounts for around 18% of national emissions</a>. Electric vehicles, powered by renewable energy, are crucial for meeting Australia’s emissions target of net-zero by 2050. </p>
<p>This won’t happen if electric vehicles remain prohibitively expensive. Indeed, 87% of Australians in a <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021-EVC-carsales-Consumer-attitudes-survey-web.pdf">2021 survey</a> said the biggest barrier to buy an electric vehicle is its high upfront cost.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1552457351835176961"}"></div></p>
<p>So what does a fringe benefit tax on cars actually do? </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/General/fringe-benefits-tax-(fbt)/types-of-fringe-benefits/car-fringe-benefits/working-out-the-taxable-value-of-a-car-fringe-benefit/">two ways</a> the fringe benefit tax is calculated in Australia: using the statutory formula (based on the car’s cost price), or using the operating cost method (based on the costs of operating the car). The fringe benefits tax <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/rates/fbt/#:%7E:text=Find%20out%20about%20fringe%20benefits,1%20April%20to%2031%20March.">is 47%</a> of each method’s calculated final value, known as “grossed up taxable value”.</p>
<p>The highest payable fringe benefits tax is under the statutory formula method, which applies when employees fail to keep a car logbook. Under this method, electric vehicles would be at a disadvantage. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-friendly-is-an-electric-car-it-all-comes-down-to-where-you-live-179003">How climate-friendly is an electric car? It all comes down to where you live</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Employees would be penalised for choosing an electric vehicle because of its higher upfront cost price. Employers would pay a higher fringe benefits tax than if they’d bought a lower-priced petrol or diesel car. That doesn’t leave much incentive for businesses to buy an electric car.</p>
<p>Removing the fringe benefits tax on electric vehicles is a good way to stop penalising employees for choosing an electric vehicle. But it still won’t reduce the high upfront cost price.</p>
<h2>Why businesses still won’t choose electric cars</h2>
<p>Business uptake of electric vehicles depends on the total cost of ownership. Let’s use Hyundai’s Kona cars as a case study.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.racefor2030.com.au/fast-track-reports/?utm_campaign=318233_BEVs%20apology&utm_medium=email&utm_source=RACE%20FOR%202030%20Limited&dm_t=0,0,0,0,0#2">Modelling </a> found Kona electric cars, including a smart charger, costs A$66,337 (excluding GST). A new Kona fuel-combustion car, on the other hand, costs $31,329 (excluding GST), which means electric vehicles are not cost competitive. </p>
<p>The fringe benefits tax would further widen this cost gap of over $35,000, adding around $12,000 each year to the Kona Electric. </p>
<p>Labor’s bill would remove the $12,000 yearly tax, reducing the <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/electric-car-discount-bill-introduced-parliament?utm_source=miragenews&utm_medium=miragenews&utm_campaign=news">ownership cost</a> of an electric vehicle. But it will not reduce the upfront price difference with Kona’s fuel-combustion car.</p>
<p>Another factor to consider is that <a href="https://afma.org.au/electric-vehicles-in-business-fleets-report/#report">a 2020 survey</a> found over 47% of business fleets used for work are parked at home and subject to fringe benefit taxes. This means the fringe benefit tax exemption does not apply to all business vehicles.</p>
<p>The fringe benefit tax exemption may encourage the 47% of business fleet vehicles parked at home to transition to electric vehicles. But this will require an additional cost of installing chargers. This can be expensive, non-tax deductible and subject to additional fringe benefits tax. </p>
<h2>Can we buy from the second-hand market?</h2>
<p>Australia should learn from <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2020_10_Company_cars_briefing.pdf">tax changes</a> in Europe, which have successfully accelerated the uptake of electric vehicles. <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/company-cars-how-european-governments-are-subsidising-pollution-and-climate-change/">Company cars</a> represent the main market share for new electric vehicles in Europe. </p>
<p>The highest is in the Netherlands, where businesses account for 73% of new electric vehicle purchases. In the United Kingdom it’s at 67%, Germany at 49% and Norway at 34%.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-tips-to-make-your-fuel-tank-last-longer-while-prices-are-high-180134">5 tips to make your fuel tank last longer while prices are high</a>
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</p>
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<p>After three to four years, these business electric vehicles are rolled over into the second-hand market, which are cheaper and more affordable to all consumers, not just high-end buyers. </p>
<p>In Australia, business buyers account for <a href="https://www.ntc.gov.au/sites/default/files/assets/files/Carbon%20dioxide%20emissions%20intensity%20for%20new%20Australian%20light%20vehicles%202020.pdf">over 40% of new light vehicle sales</a>. But their uptake of electric vehicles is shockingly low, with a mere <a href="https://www.ntc.gov.au/sites/default/files/assets/files/Carbon%20dioxide%20emissions%20intensity%20for%20new%20Australian%20light%20vehicles%202020.pdf">487 electric vehicles</a> acquired by business fleets in 2020.</p>
<p>This means Australian consumers cannot rely on more affordable business fleet electric vehicles being rolled over into the secondhand market any time soon. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476631/original/file-20220729-21-l4tehb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476631/original/file-20220729-21-l4tehb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476631/original/file-20220729-21-l4tehb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476631/original/file-20220729-21-l4tehb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476631/original/file-20220729-21-l4tehb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476631/original/file-20220729-21-l4tehb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476631/original/file-20220729-21-l4tehb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476631/original/file-20220729-21-l4tehb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Businesses account for 67% of electric vehicle purchases in the UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What should we do instead?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.racefor2030.com.au/fast-track-reports/?utm_campaign=318233_BEVs%20apology&utm_medium=email&utm_source=RACE%20FOR%202030%20Limited&dm_t=0,0,0,0,0#">Our report</a> finds the federal government must introduce additional tax changes, and not be limited to the fringe benefit tax exemption for electric vehicles. </p>
<p>We recommend 17 short-term and long-term tax changes to lower the upfront electric vehicle prices, the total cost of ownership and encourage home charging to address business lack of workplace charging infrastructure. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>instant asset write off to only apply to employer-provided fleet electric vehicles, up to the luxury car limit of A$84,916 (including GST in 2022/23). This would allow the Kona electric vehicle purchase cost of $64,037 to be claimed as an outright tax deduction by a business in its first year of ownership.</p></li>
<li><p>increase the GST credit and depreciation cost limit for fleet electric vehicles, up to the luxury car limit</p></li>
<li><p>a fringe benefit tax exemption for home charging installation and smart charges for fleet electric vehicles</p></li>
<li><p>instant asset write-off for home charging installation and smart charges for fleet electric vehicles.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Business incentives such as these will bring Australia a big step closer to meeting its 2030 electric vehicle target and, crucially, its net-zero emissions target. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-must-rapidly-decarbonise-transport-but-hydrogens-not-the-answer-166830">We must rapidly decarbonise transport – but hydrogen's not the answer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Mortimore receives funding from Reliable Affordable Clean Energy Cooperative Research Centre for 2030 (RACE for 2030).
Anna Mortimore acknowledges researcher Dr Diane Kraal from Monash University, </span></em></p>Labor’s new tax cut is a far cry from what’s needed to meet Australia’s target of 89% new car sales being electric by 2030.Anna Mortimore, Lecturer, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1873972022-07-21T16:03:22Z2022-07-21T16:03:22ZCan electric vehicle batteries be recycled?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475127/original/file-20220720-20-alntg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C5239%2C2493&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The electric car makes it possible to partially decarbonize transportation, but the fate of the batteries after their use remains an open problem.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/HjV_hEECgcM">Michael Marais/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Between 2000 and 2018, the number of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) manufactured was multiplied by 80. In 2018, <a href="http://www.avicenne.com/reports_energy.php">66% of them</a> were used in electric vehicles (EVs). The planned development of electric mobility will increase demand for batteries, with the International Energy Agency estimating that between 2019 and 2030, battery demand <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020">will grow 17-fold</a>.</p>
<p>This situation raises many questions related to the materials used to manufacture these batteries: what resources are involved? What are the environmental impacts of extracting them? Can they be recycled?</p>
<p>When looking into the materials in the LIBs that are currently used in the vast majority of EVs, the first thing to know is that there are multiple kinds of battery technology. While all contain lithium, the other components vary: batteries in telephones or computers contain cobalt, whereas those for vehicles may contain cobalt with nickel or manganese, or none at all in the case of iron-phosphate technologies.</p>
<p>The exact chemical composition of these storage components is difficult to identify, as it is a trade secret. Furthermore, improvements are regularly made to batteries to increase their performance, so their chemical composition evolves over time. In any case, the main materials involved in manufacturing LIBs are lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and graphite. These have all been identified as materials presenting <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352152X19307315">supply and environmental risks</a>.</p>
<p>The question of supply for these materials is a complex one: on the one hand, the value of reserves is subject to geopolitical considerations and evolutions in extraction techniques; on the other, needs for materials are very sensitive to hypothetical forecasts (number of EVs and battery size).</p>
<h2>What are the environmental impacts?</h2>
<p>The question of the environmental impacts of battery manufacturing is perhaps even more important. Even if there are enough materials, the impacts of their use must be seriously considered.</p>
<p>Studies show that battery manufacturing can have <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/electric-vehicles-from-life-cycle">serious impacts in terms of human toxicity or ecosystem pollution</a>. On top of this is the need to monitor <a href="https://dial.uclouvain.be/pr/boreal/object/boreal:213422">labour conditions in certain countries</a>. Furthermore, analysing environmental impacts requires full knowledge of battery composition and manufacturing processes, but this information is <a href="https://www.ivl.se/download/18.14d7b12e16e3c5c36271070/1574923989017/C444.pdf">difficult to obtain</a> for obvious reasons related to industrial property.</p>
<h2>Could recycling the materials provide solutions to limit these risks and impacts?</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1682-5.pdf">two main families of battery recycling processes</a>, used separately or in combination.</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Pyrometallurgy</strong>, which destroys the organic and plastic components by exposing them to high temperatures and leaves only the metal components (nickel, cobalt, copper, etc.). These are then separated by chemical processes.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Hydrometallurgy</strong>, which does not include the high-temperature stage. Instead, it separates the components only by different baths of solutions that are chemically adapted to the materials to be recovered.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In both cases, the batteries must first be ground to a powder. The two processes currently operate on an industrial scale in recycling LIBs for telephones and laptops to recover the cobalt they contain. This material is so precious that recovering it ensures the economic profitability of the current LIB recycling sector.</p>
<p>But as the LIB technologies used for EVs do not all contain cobalt, the question of the economic model for recycling them remains unresolved, and there is still no real industrial sector for recycling these batteries. The main reason is the lack of a sufficient volume of batteries to be processed: the widespread roll-out of EVs is relatively recent and their batteries are not yet at the end of their life.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the definition of this end of life is in itself subject to discussion. For example, “traction” batteries (which allow EVs to run) are considered unfit for service when they have lost 20 or 30% of their capacity – which corresponds to an equivalent loss in the vehicle’s autonomy.</p>
<h2>Can EV batteries have a second life?</h2>
<p>There is a debate around a potential “second life” for these batteries, which would make it possible to extend their use and thereby reduce their environmental impacts. The first issues for this relate to the reconfiguration needed for batteries and their electric monitoring mechanism. Next, applications must be identified for these batteries with “reduced” capacity. They could be used for energy storage connected to the electricity network, as <a href="https://www.ecoco2.com/blog/la-seconde-vie-des-batteries/">many experiments have been run</a> in this area.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420205/original/file-20210909-25-160pnpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1198%2C759&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420205/original/file-20210909-25-160pnpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420205/original/file-20210909-25-160pnpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420205/original/file-20210909-25-160pnpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420205/original/file-20210909-25-160pnpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420205/original/file-20210909-25-160pnpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420205/original/file-20210909-25-160pnpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Certain EV batteries could be reused in solar farms for example – an economic and environmental model that has been widely discussed. Here, the battery of an eMini.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/irisheyes/4512083339/">Underway in Ireland/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, a major player such as RTE, the operator and manager of France’s electricity transmission network, believes that <a href="https://www.rte-france.com/actualites/developpement-du-vehicule-electrique-et-systeme-electrique-une-faisabilite-sereine-et">this application is ill-suited</a>, functionally and economically, and recommends recycling EV batteries at the end of their first life instead.</p>
<h2>Setting up a recycling sector that can adapt alongside evolving technologies</h2>
<p>Establishing a recycling sector will also require an economic model capable of adapting to the range of battery technologies, without having to use a large number of different recycling processes.</p>
<p>Lastly, it must be noted that these environmental impact and recycling issues are not simple to tackle, as the technologies have not yet reached maturity and their long-term sustainability is not yet guaranteed. LIBs evolve very quickly – with lithium-metal battery technologies now being designed, for example – and we are even seeing the arrival of competing technologies without lithium, such as <a href="https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/fondamental/materiaux/mise-au-point-d-une-batterie-sodium-ion-aussi-performante-qu-une-batterie-lithium-ion_144853">sodium-ion</a>.</p>
<p>For all these reasons, the environmental, economic and social impacts of manufacturing and recycling EV batteries and their materials must continue to be studied. It is essential to keep applying grassroots and <a href="https://www.actu-environnement.com/ae/news/batteries-materiaux-normes-fabrication-collecte-recyclage-europe-36682.php4">legislative pressure</a> to obtain transparency around manufacturing processes, so that we can quantify their impacts and identify ways to limit them. Forthcoming European research programmes are also positioned in this area, including the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/france/news/20210126/autorisation_aide_publique_projet_recherche_innovation_batteries_fr">environmental dimension of new battery development</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420207/original/file-20210909-17-zj6bew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420207/original/file-20210909-17-zj6bew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420207/original/file-20210909-17-zj6bew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420207/original/file-20210909-17-zj6bew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420207/original/file-20210909-17-zj6bew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420207/original/file-20210909-17-zj6bew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420207/original/file-20210909-17-zj6bew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The way to limit the use of electric batteries is to limit the size and power of motor vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/0hJL8lBl0qQ">Filip Mroz/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, we should not just sit around waiting for some miraculous, clean, high-performing and cheap battery technology, which is more like a pipe dream. It is important that we slow down the growth in EV battery size, and therefore limit the power, mass and autonomy of the vehicles themselves.</p>
<p>This means we will need to rethink how we get around – leaving the car-based model – rather than seeking to replace one kind of technology (the combustion motor) with another (the electric motor).</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This translation was created by the Université Gustave-Eiffel.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187397/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Serge Pelissier ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Between reuse and recycling, what happens to the batteries of electric vehicles?Serge Pelissier, Chercheur sur le stockage de l’énergie dans les transports, Université Gustave EiffelLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1861762022-07-07T12:02:20Z2022-07-07T12:02:20ZThe road ahead for electric cars relies on affordability, not scrapping grants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472536/original/file-20220705-12-irv8rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C22%2C3788%2C2132&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-electric-car-driving-on-1849253413">Shutterstock/mpohodzhay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since 2011, the UK government has been providing a tax-payer funded discount on the sale of battery electric vehicles. Known as the “plug-in car grant”, it was designed to help persuade motorists make the switch from diesel or petrol and commit to electric driving. </p>
<p>But last month the grant <a href="https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/consumer/uk-government-axes-plug-car-grant-immediate-effect">was scrapped</a> with immediate effect. It wasn’t exactly a surprise, given that the amount buyers were able to claim back had gradually been whittled down from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_incentives_for_plug-in_electric_vehicles#United_Kingdom">£5,000</a> to £1,500; or that it was recently available only for new vehicles costing less than £32,000 (the average cost of electric cars is around <a href="https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/average-cost-electric-car-uk#buy">£43,000</a>).</p>
<p>In fact, the government had been trying to scrap the grant completely for a while. Only a <a href="https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/104868/government-electric-car-grant-will-come-to-an-end-transport-secretary-says">major backlash</a> a couple of years ago forced the government to do a speedy handbrake turn and keep it going for a while longer.</p>
<p>Now though, the high level of demand for electric vehicles appears to have given the Treasury the green light to pull the plug once and for all. Instead it is apparently opting for a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/plug-in-grant-for-cars-to-end-as-focus-moves-to-improving-electric-vehicle-charging">“shift in focus”</a> towards charging infrastructure, although no new money has been announced for this.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/government-scraps-electric-car-grants-24222005">government’s argument</a> for scrapping the subsidy is that it has already done its job of getting the wheels of the electric car market moving. There are also significant financial benefits to owning an electric car such as reduced running costs, and no road tax bill.</p>
<p>And it is true that the market for electric vehicles is strengthening. Prices have come down, the range of models has improved, and it is estimated that <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59887024">one in four cars</a> sold in the UK and EU this year could be battery powered. </p>
<p>But that could quickly change. Other countries which have withdrawn financial support for car buyers have seen a <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/mckinsey-electric-vehicle-index-europe-cushions-a-global-plunge-in-ev-sales">dip in demand</a> for electric cars. </p>
<p>For now, the government is essentially saying it will switch towards supporting the charging infrastructure and <a href="https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-news/electric-fleet-news/2022/06/14/chancellor-urged-to-keep-company-car-tax-low-to-support-ev-uptake">company car buyers</a>. </p>
<p>At first glance, targeting the purchase of company cars makes sense. Lots of firms buy new cars, and their drivers tend to clock up more miles than private owners. So if they can be encouraged to buy electric cars, this will help reduce CO₂ emissions on the roads. </p>
<p>After two or three years, those company cars are fed into the used car market, potentially increasing the number of electric vehicles available. </p>
<p>But it raises a big question over fairness. Subsidising company cars provides savings to business owners, and employees who may benefit from company car <a href="https://businessadvice.co.uk/tax-and-admin/benefit-in-kind-electric-cars/">tax breaks</a>. Opting for an electric vehicle is becoming an increasingly obvious choice for managers and business owners, with a tax system designed to assist them. </p>
<p>So far, so good – for the relatively well off. In affluent areas of the UK, shiny new Teslas, Polestars, e-Trons plugged into the domestic electricity supply have become a common sight on driveways. </p>
<h2>Driving away business</h2>
<p>In poorer areas, they are much less common, and so are the driveways. But those with their own private home charging point enjoy much cheaper rates, because plugging into an on-street charging point means paying 20% VAT on the electricity rather than the 5% of a domestic tariff. </p>
<p>So while targeting company cars and fleet drivers makes some sense in promoting wider electric vehicle uptake, the policy seems pretty regressive. The government seems to have forgotten about helping the less well off into electric vehicles. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two electric cars charging on street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472524/original/file-20220705-19-rsan8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C0%2C5280%2C3501&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472524/original/file-20220705-19-rsan8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472524/original/file-20220705-19-rsan8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472524/original/file-20220705-19-rsan8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472524/original/file-20220705-19-rsan8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472524/original/file-20220705-19-rsan8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472524/original/file-20220705-19-rsan8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Undercharged policy?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/londonuk300718-two-white-volkswagen-golf-gte-1636208521">Shutterstock/phaustov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast, New Zealand recently announced a <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/05/16/29b-climate-change-boost-for-evs-waste-emissions-reduction/">“clean car upgrade programme”</a> which aims to help low and middle income families into low-emission cars through what is effectively a scrap-and-replace scheme. In Scotland, a new <a href="https://www.insider.co.uk/news/scottish-government-pledges-30-million-27168802">plan</a> offers interest-free loans to anyone looking to buy a new or used electric cars. It will be interesting to see whether these ideas have the desired effect. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the global car industry is being severely constrained by the <a href="https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/industries/manufacturing/how-the-chip-shortage-is-hitting-the-uk-automotive-sector">chip shortage</a>. In the UK, it also finds itself under pressure from the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61795693">shift in approach</a> which now favours the “stick” of economic mandates over the “carrot” of widely available grants. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-news/electric-fleet-news/2022/04/07/government-launches-consultation-on-zero-emission-vehicle-mandate">zero emission vehicle mandate</a>, manufacturers will be required to sell a certain proportion of electric vehicles before 2030. If they don’t hit the targets they will be fined.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, the government’s latest moves have not <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/06/smmt-response-to-end-of-plug-in-car-grant/">gone down well</a> with a car industry struggling in a difficult economic climate. And nor should the government forget the economic challenges for drivers of soaring petrol prices and the rising cost of living. If it wants more of them to make the switch to electric vehicles, it should be much more focused on making them an <a href="https://knowablemagazine.org/article/society/2022/make-electric-vehicles-affordable">affordable option</a> for as many motorists as possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186176/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bailey receives funding from the ERSC’s UK in a Changing Europe programme where he is a Senior Fellow.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phil Tomlinson currently receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) for the Made Smarter Innovation: Centre for People-Led Digitalisation.</span></em></p>Scrapping a grant for electric cars in the UK may be a backward move.David Bailey, Professor of Business Economics, University of BirminghamPhil Tomlinson, Professor of Industrial Strategy, Deputy Director Centre for Governance, Regulation and Industrial Strategy (CGR&IS), University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835672022-06-16T12:07:50Z2022-06-16T12:07:50ZEco-friendly tech comes with its own environmental costs: that’s why it’s vital to cut energy demand now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468012/original/file-20220609-5837-p73uas.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3613%2C2170&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mining and extracting metals has ecologically damaging consequences.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/silhouettes-workers-mine-176428352">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If we want to keep <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-says-earth-will-reach-temperature-rise-of-about-1-5-in-around-a-decade-but-limiting-any-global-warming-is-what-matters-most-165397">global temperature rise</a> below 1.5 or even 2°C, we’ll need a monumental shift in how our energy and transport systems work. The <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">International Energy Agency</a> has declared that millions of solar panels, wind turbines and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-friendly-is-an-electric-car-it-all-comes-down-to-where-you-live-179003">electric vehicles</a> (EVs) will need to be made and deployed around the world in the next three decades. Thankfully, these technologies are constantly improving – as well as becoming cheaper. </p>
<p>However, a key feature of most <a href="https://theconversation.com/these-energy-innovations-could-transform-how-we-mitigate-climate-change-and-save-money-in-the-process-5-essential-reads-180076">eco-friendly tech</a> is that it requires more, and more varied, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/extractiveindustries/brief/climate-smart-mining-minerals-for-climate-action">materials</a> than those used in the tech it’s replacing. Wind turbines need <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/zinc-low-carbon-economy-construction/">iron and zinc</a> for the corrosion-proof steel and motors needed to capture energy from the wind. And <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-mineral-supplies-for-electric-cars-must-increase-30-fold-to-meet-climate-goals/">electric vehicles</a> need lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese for their batteries, plus neodymium and other rare earth materials for their motors.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="White cars charging electrically from charging points mounted on grey frames" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468055/original/file-20220609-18-5fcrtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468055/original/file-20220609-18-5fcrtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468055/original/file-20220609-18-5fcrtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468055/original/file-20220609-18-5fcrtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468055/original/file-20220609-18-5fcrtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468055/original/file-20220609-18-5fcrtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468055/original/file-20220609-18-5fcrtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electric vehicles require rare materials to run.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/power-supply-electric-car-charging-station-1070497337">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Building lots of these devices will therefore require huge amounts of specific materials, many of which are difficult to mine. Some can come from recycling, but for many materials, such as lithium, there’s just not enough being used today that can be recycled for future use. Instead, most will have to come from mining.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-supplies-are-running-out-and-could-drastically-slow-down-the-journey-to-net-zero-182787">Electric car supplies are running out – and could drastically slow down the journey to net-zero</a>
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<p>This means that if low-carbon tech is to be used around the world, we need to face the less palatable consequences, or trade-offs, of building it. Making a global switch to EVs, for example, may mean <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/dec/08/the-curse-of-white-oil-electric-vehicles-dirty-secret-lithium">damaging forest ecosystems</a> to access lithium or cobalt.</p>
<h2>Trade-offs</h2>
<p>One major trade-off is the environmental damage associated with <a href="https://hackaday.com/2021/12/13/mining-and-refining-from-red-dirt-to-aluminum/">mining and refining</a> materials. An example is <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/12/05/the-weekend-read-solar-needs-aluminum-but-it-has-a-carbon-problem/">aluminium</a>, vital for making solar panel frames. Worldwide aluminium production accounts for 2% of all greenhouse gas emissions, with studies estimating future emissions could reach <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-021-00838-9">1.7 gigatonnes</a> of CO₂ by 2050 – equivalent to twice the annual emissions from planes. </p>
<p>There’s potential to cut these emissions significantly, however. Switching the source of electricity for processing aluminium from fossil fuels to hydroelectric can reduce emissions from new aluminium by around 75%. What’s needed to make that happen, though, are better financial incentives for the mining sector to use renewable energy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Brine pools for lithium mining" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468051/original/file-20220609-20-nyq0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468051/original/file-20220609-20-nyq0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468051/original/file-20220609-20-nyq0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468051/original/file-20220609-20-nyq0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468051/original/file-20220609-20-nyq0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468051/original/file-20220609-20-nyq0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468051/original/file-20220609-20-nyq0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Brine extraction has uncertain consequences.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brine-pools-lithium-mining-1833635461">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Difficulties with sourcing these materials are not limited to the emissions they create. Extracting <a href="https://hir.harvard.edu/lithium-triangle/">lithium from brine</a> – as is done in Argentina, Bolivia and Chile – requires drilling holes in salt flats to bring brine (salt water) to the surface, then evaporating the water using sunlight to leave potassium, manganese, borax and lithium salts behind.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-lithium-mined-from-hot-springs-in-cornwall-could-boost-britains-green-tech-71741">How lithium mined from hot springs in Cornwall could boost Britain's green tech</a>
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<p>There is a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00080-9">debate</a> about the extent to which this brine qualifies as water, and therefore how much its extraction is affecting <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/water-stress-global-problem-thats-getting-worse">water-stressed</a> regions like Chile. For those arguing that it should be classed as water, its extraction is creating unnecessary water scarcity and damaging fragile ecosystems. And even from the perspective of those arguing it’s not water due to its high concentration of minerals, the long-term consequences of its extraction remain unknown. </p>
<p>Cobalt, another vital material used in EV batteries, is mostly mined in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-coltan-mining-in-the-drc-costs-people-and-the-environment-183159">Democratic Republic of Congo</a>. A large but unknown quantity of cobalt is extracted by small-scale miners who often employ children and have been <a href="http://resourcefever.com/publications/reports/OEKO_2011_cobalt_mining_congo.pdf">accused</a> of unsafe working conditions, poor safety records and exploitative employment contracts.</p>
<p>These trade-offs are not a justification for avoiding action on climate change, nor for refusing to build the tech we need to decarbonise essential systems. They do, however, justify <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-necessary-to-trash-the-environment-to-extract-metals-needed-for-renewable-energy-174271">closer focus</a> on how the materials needed to make eco-friendlier tech are sourced. </p>
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<img alt="A person holds a sign reading '#FreeCongo End Child Mining'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468052/original/file-20220609-26-352gf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468052/original/file-20220609-26-352gf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468052/original/file-20220609-26-352gf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468052/original/file-20220609-26-352gf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468052/original/file-20220609-26-352gf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468052/original/file-20220609-26-352gf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468052/original/file-20220609-26-352gf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Mining can have socially devastating consequences.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/washington-dc-november-14-2020-democratic-1856050648">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Improving recycling of old products and scrap materials is a crucial part of this. However, the sheer increase in demand for these materials, due to the ongoing <a href="https://theconversation.com/fight-or-switch-how-the-low-carbon-transition-is-disrupting-fossil-fuel-politics-122376">low-carbon transition</a> as well as consumers’ growing wealth across the world, means this alone probably won’t be enough to avoid widespread ecosystem damage.</p>
<p>To help reduce this demand, we must increase the energy efficiency of our homes and businesses so they require less energy in the first place. Shifting away from private transport by investing in public transport will also help to cut mining demand. Without such action, achieving a truly sustainable <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-energy-revolution-is-possible-but-only-if-leaders-get-imaginative-about-how-to-fund-it-172427">low-carbon transition</a> will be impossible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Laing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Solar panels and electric cars come with their own environmental trade-offs like increased mining and extraction.Timothy Laing, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of BrightonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1834152022-06-14T14:35:32Z2022-06-14T14:35:32ZElectric vehicles in South Africa: how to avoid making them the privilege of the few<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468223/original/file-20220610-25540-lftk4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electric Cars being recharged in Paris. South Africa needs to subsidise entry level vehicles to boost sales.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by: Dukas/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the early 1900s, automobiles took the streets of industrialised cities by storm, rapidly displacing horse-drawn vehicles. Fiercely contested at first, the internal combustion engine won the technological battle against electric vehicles which accounted for up to a third of vehicles <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/automobile/Early-electric-automobiles">on the road before declining</a>. </p>
<p>After more than a century of domination, the internal combustion engine age is soon to be over. The tide is turning to electric vehicles. Pushed by environmental regulations, support programmes and improving economics, electric vehicles are set to become dominant in the coming decades. As the <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> has been reminding us, we have to aggressively shift to electric vehicles - as part of a broader drive to sustainable mobility - to meet our climate goals.</p>
<p>Yet, the rollout of electric vehicles risks leaving many behind. Achieving a socially-progressive development of e-mobility requires pro-active government interventions. This is particularly true in South Africa, a country with <a href="https://www.tips.org.za/research-archive/inequality-and-economic-inclusion/item/download/1934_7d7571bb7e51a07dc3331c5f58965677">high inequality</a> and <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0320/P03202020.pdf">unequal access to transport</a>. </p>
<p>Unless ambitious public policy action is taken, electric vehicles will remain the privilege of the few for the foreseeable future. A dual strategy is necessary. It involves promoting the purchase of entry-level electric vehicles in the passenger car market while, at the same time, fostering the introduction of electric vehicles in public transport.</p>
<h2>Risks and opportunities</h2>
<p>I have been working, with partners, to understand the <a href="https://www.tips.org.za/research-archive/sustainable-growth/green-economy/item/download/1736_f8c5c661120534142e46b3fec6d5a810">implications</a> of the global transition to e-mobility for South Africa. Our work also included <a href="https://www.tips.org.za/research-archive/sustainable-growth/green-economy/item/download/1915_4ac80077f182c350e020e6139e3e2042">the most appropriate interventions</a> for the country to mitigate risks and maximise benefits.</p>
<p>An exclusionary, elitist transition to e-mobility is one such risk. Yet, as explored in a recent Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies <a href="https://www.tips.org.za/policy-briefs/item/download/2223_8d1bdabe219e678ad4ad53003e804d79">policy brief</a>, an opportunity exists to shape the rollout more inclusively in both private and public transport. </p>
<p>First, the dual strategy would involve promoting the purchase of entry-level passenger electric vehicles. </p>
<p>Many, from politicians and government officials to civil society activists and unionists, will object to this very idea. After all, why should the country support the sale of private vehicles? Merely a third of South African households own a car and only upper middle- and high-income households would be in a position to afford an electric vehicle, even an entry-level model.</p>
<p>The same argument would also be expressed as: can’t we just let the market transition on its own?</p>
<p>The answer to this would be maybe, if South Africa did not have an automotive manufacturing industry or if vehicles produced domestically were all exported. But that’s not the case. </p>
<p>South Africa has a well-developed automotive value chain, often heralded as the crown jewels of the country’s <a href="http://www.thedtic.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/Masterplan-Automotive_Industry.pdf">industrial policy</a>. And the local industry is closely tied to both <a href="https://naamsa.net/export-manual-2022-book/">domestic and European dynamics</a>.</p>
<p>The local market matters. It accounts for 2 out of 5 passenger vehicles manufactured in South Africa. Moreover, about half the market for new vehicles consists of entry-level vehicles below R260 000. But electric vehicle sales are insignificant. There were only 6 367 electric vehicles on South African roads by the end of 2020. All electric vehicles, including hybrid models, accounted for less than 0.2% of new car sales <a href="https://naamsa.net/export-manual-2021-book/">in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>Yet, a transition to producing more electric vehicles is vital if South Africa wants to keep up with developments in Europe. About 3 out of 5 passenger vehicles manufactured in South Africa <a href="https://naamsa.net/export-manual-2021-book/">are exported</a>, primarily to Europe (three-quarters of exports). Europe accounted (in value) for 60% of South African exports of automotive vehicles and components in 2020.</p>
<p>And the European trajectory is clear: no internal combustion engine or hybrid sales by 2035 in most countries. </p>
<p>The cost of doing nothing would be disastrous for the sector – and South Africa’s environment. </p>
<h2>Some solutions</h2>
<p>Electric vehicles are cheaper to own. But they’re more expensive to buy than their internal combustion engine counterparts. This is a problem given that the domestic market is very price sensitive, particularly in the entry-level segment.</p>
<p>Temporary support for the full range of electric vehicles is recommended to incentivise prospective buyers. The support would need to bridge the gap between electric vehicles and internal combustion engine equivalents in the entry-level segment. </p>
<p>Fostering electric vehicles sales domestically could be achieved through a direct, fixed purchase subsidy and extremely low-interest loans, underpinned by development finance institutions for entry-level electric vehicles. </p>
<p>To minimise financial implications and keep up with global trends, strict conditions would be required. Most importantly, support should lapse in 2030 for soft hybrids and 2035 for all other electric vehicles.</p>
<p>The availability of entry-level electric vehicles on the local market is a fundamental precondition for the incentive to be effective. To this end, the tariff anomaly, which sees battery electric vehicles originating from the EU fetching a 25% tariff (against 18% for all other vehicles) should be resolved.</p>
<p>Second, it requires fostering the introduction of electric vehicles in public transport. Close to three-quarter of South Africans relied on public transport as their main means of commuting <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0320/P03202020.pdf">in 2019</a>. Of commuters that use public transport for their mobility, 66% used minibus taxis and 12% buses.</p>
<p>So far, knowledge in deploying electric public transport vehicles is limited. Cape Town is the only municipality to have experimented with e-buses, with little success. The buses proved unsuitable for the city’s geography and the tender process was <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/264287/cape-towns-new-r128-million-electric-buses-cant-make-it-up-the-hill-report/">marred by allegations of irregularities</a>. </p>
<p>Electric minibus taxis is another route worth taking. No experience for these exist, though a <a href="http://www.eng.sun.ac.za/news/first-electric-minibus-taxi-is-coming-to-south-africa/">pilot is planned for Stellenbosch</a>.</p>
<p>The rollout of electric minibus taxis should be supported through a temporary, enhanced <a href="https://www.gov.za/about-government/government-programmes/taxi-recapitalisation-programme#:%7E:text=The%20Taxi%20Recapitalisation%20Programme%20(TRP,functions%20in%20the%20taxi%20industry.">Taxi Recapitalisation Programme</a> scrapping allowance for the purchase of electric vehicles. </p>
<p>In addition, reducing the cost of finance for e-minibus taxis would further support the transition. Minibus taxis are considered high risk and face high interest rates when financed. Preferential financing terms of electric vehicles could be achieved through government-guaranteed loans or the provision of concessional debt. This is also proposed for passenger vehicles.</p>
<p>For bus fleets, the rollout of electric vehicles would essentially flow through public procurement programmes, such as bus rapid transport systems. </p>
<p>Here, the public nature of the bus systems would allow for a great degree of experimentation with innovative mechanisms and models. This could involve grants as well as innovative financial arrangements and business models, like <a href="https://www.greencape.co.za/assets/Uploads/PAYS-INDUSTRY-BRIEF-OPTION-Final.pdf">Pay-as-you-Save</a>, battery leasing or bus sharing.</p>
<p>Complementary measures could also be introduced. These include adequate charging infrastructure, differentiated electricity tariffs (to encourage off-peak charging), preferential access/parking or discounted licenses. Besides being critical for South Africa’s industrial development, stimulating the local manufacturing of all types of electric vehicles could also result in lower-cost vehicles in the long run.</p>
<p>More broadly, the “electric revolution” can make transportation more environmentally sustainable. It also provides a unique opportunity to make it more socially inclusive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gaylor Montmasson-Clair does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Unless ambitious public policy action is taken, electric vehicles will remain the privilege of the few for the foreseeable future.Gaylor Montmasson-Clair, Senior Economist, Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS), University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.