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Seismologists monitor the Earth’s activity, but they can’t predict a day, time and place for the next ‘big one.’ Christian Miranda/AFP via Getty Images

Seismologists can’t predict an impending earthquake, but longer-term forecasts and brief warnings after one starts are possible

The idea that scientists could warn a region that a big quake was coming at a certain time – with enough advance notice for large-scale preparation and evacuation – remains a dream, not a reality.
Local residents Chris and Viv Young look at damage caused by the earthquake, along State Highway One near Ward on New Zealand’s South Island. ReutersAnthony Phelps

What happened in New Zealand’s magnitude 7.5 earthquake

Early analysis of the New Zealand earthquake shows it may be a complex event, involving several faults on the South Island.

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