tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/federal-election-2019-63027/articlesFederal election 2019 – The Conversation2020-11-17T18:50:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1499842020-11-17T18:50:32Z2020-11-17T18:50:32ZHow can Australia reduce the risk of another ‘systemic polling failure’?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369693/original/file-20201116-17-1e5ia53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C4372%2C2723&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Election polling has had a torrid time in recent years. </p>
<p>Prominent examples of the polls performing below expectations include the United Kingdom’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32751993">2015 general election</a>, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close">2016 Brexit referendum</a> and the United States’<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/"> 2016 presidential election</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-we-get-the-result-of-the-us-election-so-wrong-68566">How did we get the result of the US election so wrong?</a>
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<p>The dust is yet to settle on how well the polls performed in the recent US election, but the highly respected <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/13/understanding-how-2020s-election-polls-performed-and-what-it-might-mean-for-other-kinds-of-survey-work/?utm_source=Pew+Research+Center&utm_campaign=6aa128c09b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_11_14&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3e953b9b70-6aa128c09b-400186849">Pew Research Center</a> is reporting that by the end of counting, the polls will likely have overestimated the Democratic advantage by about four percentage points. </p>
<p>Closer to home, we saw the below par <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/federal-election-results-how-the-polls-got-it-so-wrong/11128176">performance of national election polls</a> during the 2019 federal election. All of these showed Labor had the support of the majority of Australian voters. </p>
<p>Yet, the Coalition went on to <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook46p/FederalElection">win with 51.5%</a> of the vote compared to Labor with 48.5%, almost the mirror opposite of what the final polls found. </p>
<p>After the election, the polls attracted <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/time-to-stop-polling-and-start-listening-why-we-got-election-so-wrong-20190519-p51ovv.html">widespread criticism</a>. </p>
<p>In response, the <a href="https://www.amsro.com.au/">Association of Market and Social Research Organisations</a> and the <a href="https://www.statsoc.org.au/">Statistical Society of Australia</a> launched a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/11/opinion-poll-failure-at-australian-federal-election-systematically-over-represented-labor">joint inquiry</a> into the performance of the polls, which I chaired. </p>
<p>This involved trying to obtain primary data from the pollsters, assembling the sparse information in the public domain and finding additional data sources to inform our report.</p>
<h2>What went wrong in 2019?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.amsro.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Inquiry_into_the_Performance_of_the_Opinion_Polls_at_the_2019_Australian_Federal-Election-Final_report.pdf">inquiry found</a> Australian election polling had a good track record, by and large. </p>
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<img alt="Australians line up outside a polling booth on Election Day 2019." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369694/original/file-20201117-21-1orj1l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369694/original/file-20201117-21-1orj1l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369694/original/file-20201117-21-1orj1l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369694/original/file-20201117-21-1orj1l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369694/original/file-20201117-21-1orj1l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369694/original/file-20201117-21-1orj1l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369694/original/file-20201117-21-1orj1l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia suffered a systematic ‘polling failure’ in the lead up to the 2019 federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca De Marchi/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Across the ten federal elections since 1993, Australian pollsters had a 73% success rate in “calling the right result” with their final polls. The comparable success rate of US pollsters over a similar period was 79%, according to <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/">fivethirtyeight</a>. </p>
<p>Australian pollsters had an even better track record in more recent times with 25 out of 26 final polls from 2007 to 2016 calling the right result, a phenomenal 96% success rate.</p>
<p>So what went wrong in 2019? With limited cooperation from the pollsters themselves, the inquiry identified a number of factors. </p>
<p>Conditions for polling, as reflected in response rates for surveys, got a lot harder. The report documents a decline in response rates for typical telephone surveys from around 20% in 2016 to 11% in 2019, with the polls likely to be achieving much lower response rates than this. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/outrage-polls-and-bias-2019-federal-election-showed-australian-media-need-better-regulation-117401">Outrage, polls and bias: 2019 federal election showed Australian media need better regulation</a>
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<p>This recent fall in response rates was part of a longer term decline, coinciding with the increasing take-up of lower cost polling methodologies (predominately online and robopolling) and pressure on polling budgets. </p>
<p>It also seemed to be the case — perhaps lulled into complacency by a long period of relative success and a mistaken belief that compulsory voting made Australia different — that our pollsters did not heed the lessons emerging from the polling reviews into 2015 UK and 2016 US elections. These identified unrepresentative samples (<a href="http://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3789/1/Report_final_revised.pdf">in the UK</a>) and the failure of many polls to adjust for the over-representation of college graduates (<a href="https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx">in the US</a>) as primary reasons for poll inaccuracies.</p>
<h2>Systemic polling failure in Australia</h2>
<p>The inquiry found no compelling evidence for the “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/shy-voters-probably-arent-why-the-polls-missed-trump/">shy conservative</a>” theory — that people were afraid to admit their true intentions to pollsters — as a possible explanation for the performance of the polls in 2019. It also found no compelling evidence of pollsters being deliberately misled by respondents, or a comprehensive late swing to the Coalition that may have been missed by the polls.</p>
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<img alt="Scott Morrison high fives supporters on election night 2019." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369695/original/file-20201117-13-1acc8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369695/original/file-20201117-13-1acc8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369695/original/file-20201117-13-1acc8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369695/original/file-20201117-13-1acc8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369695/original/file-20201117-13-1acc8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369695/original/file-20201117-13-1acc8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369695/original/file-20201117-13-1acc8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he ‘believed in miracles’ when he claimed victory, but the polls were also wrong.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>But we did find the polls most likely over-represented people who are more engaged in politics and almost certainly over-represented persons with bachelor level degrees or higher. </p>
<p>Both of these factors are associated with stronger levels of support for the Labor Party and were not reduced by sample balancing or weighting strategies. </p>
<p>So, the performance of the polls in 2019 had the hallmarks of a systematic polling failure rather than a one-off polling miss. The pollsters were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/21/as-pollsters-we-are-rightly-in-the-firing-line-after-the-australian-election-what-happened">stung into action</a> with several announcing their own <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/may/24/sydney-morning-herald-and-age-to-stop-running-ipsos-poll-after-surprise-election-result">internal reviews</a>. They also launched an <a href="https://prwire.com.au/print/australia-s-leading-pollsters-come-together-to-launch-the-australian-polling-council">Australian Polling Council</a>,</p>
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<p>with the aim of advancing the quality and understanding of public opinion polling in Australia.</p>
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<h2>What needs to change</h2>
<p>With the next federal election possible as soon as <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection">August 2021</a>, the need for reform of polling standards in Australia is urgent. </p>
<p>The main recommendations from our inquiry are as follows:</p>
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<li><p><strong>a code of conduct</strong>: the development of the code could be led by the pollsters, but also informed by other experts, including statisticians, political scientists, the Australian Press Council and/or interested media outlets. Disclosure requirements for pollsters would be fundamental here — as well as how these are monitored, and how compliance is ensured. The code should be made public so it can hold pollsters, and those reporting on the polls, to account. It would make polling methods, and their limitations, more transparent. This will help foster more realistic expectations of polling.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>methodology</strong>: pollsters need to investigate and better understand the biases in their samples and develop more effective sample balancing and/or weighting strategies to improve representativeness. Weighting or balancing by educational attainment seems promising, and the report suggests several other variables for further experimentation such as health status, life satisfaction and past voting behaviour.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>conveying uncertainty</strong>: currently, polls are usually published with a “margin of error”. This isn’t good enough — it is often inadequately calculated and inadequately reported. Pollsters need to use more robust methods for conveying the variability associated with their results. In addition, pollsters should routinely report the proportion of respondents who are “undecided” about their vote choice and identify those who are only “leaning” towards a particular party.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>get media outlets onside</strong>: Australian media organisations should comply with and actively support any new code of conduct.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>provide educational resources</strong>: educational resources about polling methods and standards should be developed and made available to journalists, academics and others who use the results.</p></li>
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<p>Election polling plays such an important role in informing decisions and shaping expectations ahead of elections. Time is running out to learn the lessons of 2019. Rapid implementation of <a href="https://www.amsro.com.au/amsro-polling-inquiry/inquiry-members/">our recommendations</a> is vital.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149984/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darren Pennay's employer, The Social Research Centre, is a member of the Association of Market and Social Research Organisations. </span></em></p>With the next federal election possible as soon as August 2021, the need for reform of polling standards in Australia is urgent.Darren Pennay, Campus Visitor, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1307952020-01-29T09:38:40Z2020-01-29T09:38:40ZView from The Hill: Politicians not bureaucrats are the ones in touch, Morrison claims in sports affair<p>As the suspense over Bridget McKenzie’s future continues, Scott Morrison on Wednesday argued that in allocating public money, it’s politicians rather than officials who understand the community.</p>
<p>Previously, Morrison has highlighted that all the grants then sports minister McKenzie decided upon – overriding the ranking worked out by officials according to the program’s criteria - were “eligible” under the sports scheme.</p>
<p>Answering questions at the National Press Club, he elevated another line.</p>
<p>He recalled when he was social services minister his department had allocated the grants under a program and the result was some “wonderful community organisations” were defunded. He and the then prime minister had to intervene and fix things.</p>
<p>“On other occasions, departments have made decisions which had stripped money from Foodbank, and I’ve had to reverse those decisions,” he said.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-resilience-speech-overshadowed-as-mckenzie-crisis-deepens-130700">Scott Morrison's 'resilience' speech overshadowed as McKenzie crisis deepens</a>
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<p>In contrast to officials, “politicians, ministers, members of parliament, we’re part of our community. We know what’s happening in our community. We’re in touch with our community. We know the things that can make a difference in our community. And it’s important because we’re accountable to those people in our communities for getting stuff done that’s going to make a difference in their communities”.</p>
<p>Later he elaborated. “It’s not a question of either/or. It’s a question of the two working together. And my best experience as a minister and a prime minister is where you just worked together closely with your public officials and you make decisions.” </p>
<p>Despite Morrison saying how much he respected the “professionalism”, “expertise” and “skills” of the public service, his remarks won’t be lost on federal bureaucrats who already feel somewhat under siege from the PM.</p>
<p>On a literal reading of Morrison’s analysis, McKenzie gets protection on two grounds. The politically-based grants she made were “eligible” and politicians know best anyhow.</p>
<p>This suggests if McKenzie is to be dumped it will have to be on the ground of her failure to disclose her membership of a gun club she funded, rather on the propriety (or rather, impropriety) of her doling out money skewed to marginal seats - which is the more serious sin.</p>
<p>Around the government, there is some bewilderment that Morrison hasn’t dealt with the McKenzie situation before this (which of course does involve Nationals leader Michael McCormack).</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-bridget-mckenzie-has-made-herself-a-sitting-duck-130474">Grattan on Friday: Bridget McKenzie has made herself a sitting duck</a>
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<p>It’s impossible to believe Phil Gaetjens, secretary of Morrison’s department, could not have finished his assessment of whether McKenzie had breached ministerial standards days ago if the PM had been minded to take a quick decision.</p>
<p>Whatever method there is in dragging this out isn’t obvious even to some in the Nationals, where McKenzie doesn’t have a great deal of support. It was noticed that on the ABC on Wednesday Victorian National Darren Chester, active in gathering the numbers for McKenzie’s election to the party’s deputy leadership, would not say whether she had his backing.</p>
<p>With parliament returning next week, Morrison can’t dally much longer.</p>
<p>He again played down his office’s part in the sports grants affair, saying “all we did was provide information based on the representations made to us, as every prime minister has always done”.</p>
<p>He also hinted he might make reparations to those organisations that were high on the officials’ list but missed out on grants, and are now squawking.</p>
<p>“There are many, many, many more worthy projects in this area … I will work with the Treasurer to see how we can better support even more projects in the future.”</p>
<p>But beware the fine print in his words. “On any grants program, however it’s done, there will always be many applicants whose projects are very worthy and they’re unable to be accommodated by the budget that we’ve set.</p>
<p>"We’re a responsible government that manages public money carefully.” </p>
<p>The nub of the McKenzie affair is that the government was being “careful” about the politics in how this money was “managed”. For all Morrison’s public rationalisations, the voters understand this – and the PM must know they do. As he said, politicians “are part of our communities - we live in them - we engage there every day”. And no doubt they are hearing loud and clear the community feedback about the sports rorts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130795/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite Morrison saying how much he respected the “professionalism”, “expertise” and “skills” of the public service, his remarks won’t be lost on federal bureaucrats.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1288582019-12-13T05:33:59Z2019-12-13T05:33:59ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan reflects on the year in politics<figure>
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<p>For their last video for the year, University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Deep Saini and Michelle Grattan look backwards to the big issues which have shaped political discourse. They discuss the surprise election results, and the ongoing natural disasters which have become increasingly political issues. They also discuss the biggest issues the government faces as we go into 2020.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128858/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Deep Saini and Michelle Grattan on the big issues which have shaped political discourse.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1266752019-11-08T01:26:48Z2019-11-08T01:26:48ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the government’s drought relief package and Labor’s election post-mortem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300819/original/file-20191108-10905-1isxduc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Grattan: the drought relief package will benefit agriculture-related businesses, but not mom-and-pop businesses in regional towns.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure>
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<p>University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor Geoff Crisp and Michelle Grattan discuss the government’s measures to help those hit by the drought, the ALP’s election post-mortem release and Labor’s recasting of its policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126675/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Geoff Crisp and Michelle Grattan discuss the government’s measures to help those hit by the drought, the ALP’s election post-mortem release and Labor’s recasting of its policies.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1265962019-11-07T10:48:50Z2019-11-07T10:48:50ZGrattan on Friday: Labor’s post-mortem leaves the hard work still to be done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300576/original/file-20191107-12455-jz9w1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bill Shorten may or may not have been able to beat Malcolm Turnbull, but the review makes it clear the ALP failed to adapt to a new, tactically-astute prime minister.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The messages for next time from Labor’s 2019 election post-mortem are clear. Have a better strategy. Have a stronger narrative, fewer policies, greater emphasis on economic growth. Have a better leader.</p>
<p>Obvious. Incontestable. Just, as a package, devilishly hard to achieve.</p>
<p>The review by Labor elders Jay Weatherill and Craig Emerson identifies the plethora of reasons for Labor’s unanticipated failure. It doesn’t pull punches and contains sensible recommendations.</p>
<p>But no prescribed remedies can guarantee success, in a game where how the other side operates is as important - and can be more so - than what your side does. And that’s apart from the general climate of the times, these days characterised by uncertainty and distrust.</p>
<p>Political success comes from judgement and planning, but there’s also the lottery element. We’ll never know whether Bill Shorten could have beaten Malcolm Turnbull if he’d still been the prime minister in May. Turnbull would say no. Many of the Liberals who ditched Turnbull would say yes. Everyone would agree with the review’s conclusion that Labor failed to adapt when it suddenly faced a new, tactically-astute Liberal PM.</p>
<p>The review’s release was much anticipated, as though it marks a watershed. It doesn’t. It’s sound, well and thoroughly prepared. But it was never going to say how policies should be recast. It leaves the hard work still to be done, and that will be painful and prolonged.</p>
<p>While there’s been much emphasis on Labor’s big taxing policies, the review stresses they were driven by the ALP opting for big spending.</p>
<p>It says “the size and complexity” of the ALP’s spending promises - more than $100 billion - “drove its tax policies and exposed Labor to a Coalition attack that fuelled anxieties among insecure, low-income couples in outer-urban and regional Australia that Labor would crash the economy and risk their jobs”.</p>
<p>Labor has long believed in both the policy desirability and the political attractiveness of large dollops of money for education and health in particular.</p>
<p>Beyond a certain point, however, the value of ever more dollars becomes questionable, on both policy and political grounds. Is the community, for example, getting the return it should for the funds put into schools over the past decade? </p>
<p>One can assume – and Anthony Albanese is signalling - Labor will throw around fewer dollars next time.</p>
<p>The review doesn’t target the controversial policies on negative gearing and franking credits. But they’ll be watered down or dumped. </p>
<p>Albanese, speaking to the National Press Club on Friday, said of the franking credits policy: “When you’ve got to explain dividend imputation and franking credits from opposition - tough ask”. He recounted talking to a pensioner worried about the policy - although pensioners would have been exempted and she’d never owned a share in her life.</p>
<p>The franking policy should have had a protection built in to avoid hitting genuinely low-income retirees while still catching wealthy people who’d rearranged their affairs to have little or no income. Shorten was advised to change it, but refused. On Thursday he said “were the universe to grant reruns” he would “take a different position on franking credits”.</p>
<p>It will be a lot easier for Labor to deal with these tax measures than with climate policy.</p>
<p>The review says: “A modern Labor Party cannot neglect human-induced climate change. To do so would be environmentally irresponsible and a clear electoral liability. Labor needs to increase public awareness of the costs of inaction on climate change, respect the role of workers in fossil-fuel industries and support job opportunities in emissions-reducing industries while taking the pressure off electricity prices.”</p>
<p>Indeed. The summary just highlights the complexities for Labor in working out its revised climate policy.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese has already put the policy, whatever its detail, into a framework of its potential for job creation as the energy mix moves to renewables.</p>
<p>It’s part of his broader emphasis on jobs and growth (accompanied by his pursuit of improved relations with business, never again to be labelled “the big end of town”).</p>
<p>It’s possible increasing public worry about climate change could help Labor at the next election, if the government’s response is seen as inadequate. That won’t, however, make it any less imperative for the ALP to have a better pitched policy than its 2019 election one, which was too ambitious, lacked costings, and was conflicted on coal.</p>
<p>This segues into Labor’s problem juggling its “progressive” supporters with its working class suburban base, to say nothing of those in coal areas. Taking one line in the south and another in the north didn’t work. The unpalatable truth may be these constituencies are actually not reconcilable, but Labor has to find more effective ways to deal with the clash.</p>
<p>Notably, the review points to the risk of Labor “becoming a grievance-based organisation”. “Working people experiencing economic dislocation caused by technological change will lose faith in Labor if they do not believe the party is responding to their needs, instead being preoccupied with issues not concerning them or that are actively against their interests,” it says.</p>
<p>This is an important warning in an era of identity politics. But again, Labor is in a difficult position, because its commitment to rights, non-discrimination and similar values will mean it attracts certain groups and has to be concerned with their problems. It’s a matter of balance, and not letting itself become hostage.</p>
<p>Grievance politics, looked at through a positive lens, is a way of identifying wrongs and injustices and seeking to rectify them. But it is also in part a reflection of the wider negativity infecting contemporary politics, amplified by today’s media.</p>
<p>That culture can add to the problems of a centre left party trying to sell an alternative.</p>
<p>Labor frontbencher Mark Butler recently noted that on the three post-war occasions when Labor won from opposition, it had immensely popular leaders (Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd), visions for the nation and superior campaigns.</p>
<p>Whitlam sold a sweeping new program in tune with the changing times. Hawke promoted “reconciliation, recovery and reconstruction”. Rudd was welcomed as a fresh face embracing concern about climate change. Albanese has boldly dubbed a series of his speeches (the first already delivered) “vision statements”. But “vision” is an elusive elixir, apparently harder than ever to come by.</p>
<p>Winning from opposition is a struggle for Labor. This makes it crucial to have a leader who can both reassure and inspire swinging voters. Unfortunately out-of-the box leaders don’t come often; in reality, a party has to work with what it has got.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126596/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Identifying Labor’s shortcomings at the 2019 federal election is the easy part. Much harder is actually doing something about it for next time.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1265922019-11-07T03:19:34Z2019-11-07T03:19:34ZLabor’s election post-mortem warns against ‘becoming a grievance-based organisation’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300562/original/file-20191107-12455-94wonw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former minister Craig Emerson and former South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill have pinpointed key weaknesses in Labor's 2019 election strategy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The long-awaited ALP campaign review says Labor lost “because of a weak strategy that could not adapt to the change in Liberal leadership, a cluttered policy agenda that looked risky and an unpopular leader”.</p>
<p>“No one of these shortcomings was decisive but in combination they explain the result,” says the report from former South Australian premier Jay Weatherill and former federal minister Craig Emerson.</p>
<p>While it says Labor’s big tax policies didn’t cause the defeat, the size and complexity of its spending plans “drove its tax policies” exposing it “to a Coalition attack that fuelled anxieties among insecure, low-income couples in outer-urban and regional Australia that Labor would crash the economy and risk their jobs”.</p>
<p>Labor failed to “craft a simple narrative” bringing together its policies, the reviews says.</p>
<p>Its analysis is damning while seeking to be positive for the future, at a time when the ALP remains in shock at its unexpected loss and divided and uncertain about the way forward.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, the report says “policies can be bold but should form part of a coherent Labor story, be limited in number and be easily explainable, making them less capable of misrepresentation”.</p>
<p>“Labor should position itself as a party of economic growth and job creation. Labor should adopt the language of inclusion, recognising the contribution of small and large businesses to economic prosperity, and abandon derogatory references to ‘the big end of town’.”</p>
<p>The report’s emphasis on the importance of Labor tapping into economic growth and being attuned to business reflects the direction in which Anthony Albanese has been seeking to take the party since becoming leader.</p>
<p>The criticism of the “big end of town” language is a direct slap at the rhetoric of Bill Shorten.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300573/original/file-20191107-12459-18dng6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300573/original/file-20191107-12459-18dng6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300573/original/file-20191107-12459-18dng6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300573/original/file-20191107-12459-18dng6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300573/original/file-20191107-12459-18dng6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=909&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300573/original/file-20191107-12459-18dng6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=909&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300573/original/file-20191107-12459-18dng6b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=909&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Just ahead of the report’s release, Shorten said in a Thursday statement that “were the universe to grant reruns” he would have fewer campaign messages, put more emphasis on the opportunities provided by renewable energies, and take a different position on franking credits.</p>
<p>He also said he should have promised bigger immediate tax cuts for working people.</p>
<p>Shorten reiterated his intention to remain in politics for the next 20 years.</p>
<p>The report warns that “care needs to be taken to avoid Labor becoming a grievance-based organisation,” saying it “has been increasingly mobilised to address the political grievances of a vast and disparate constituency”.</p>
<p>“Working people experiencing economic dislocation caused by technological change will lose faith in Labor if they do not believe the party is responding to their needs, instead being preoccupied with issues not concerning them or that are actively against their interests.</p>
<p>"A grievance-based approach can create a culture of moving from one issue to the next, formulating myriad policies in response to a broad range of concerns.”</p>
<p>Addressing the swing against the ALP by low-income workers, the report says the party’s “ambiguous language on Adani, combined with some anti-coal rhetoric, devastated its support in the coal mining communities of regional Queensland and the Hunter Valley.”</p>
<p>In contrast, higher-income urban voters worried about climate change moved to Labor, despite the potential impact on them of the opposition’s tax policies.</p>
<p>Labor lost some Christian voters, “particularly devout, first-generation migrant Christians”, but the review does not find that people of faith in general deserted Labor.</p>
<p>The review does not believe Labor’s values - “improving the job opportunities, security and conditions of working Australians, fairness, non-discrimination on the basis of race, religion and gender, and care for the environment” - were the problem at the election, and says Labor should retain its commitment to these values.</p>
<p>“Labor’s policy formulation should be guided by the national interest, avoiding any perception of capture by special interest groups.”</p>
<p>As a debate has raged within the ALP on how Labor should reshape its climate change policy, and notably its targets, the report says: “A modern Labor Party cannot neglect human-induced climate change. To do so would be environmentally irresponsible and a clear electoral liability.</p>
<p>"Labor needs to increase public awareness of the costs of inaction on climate change, respect the role of workers in fossil fuel industries and support job opportunities in emissions-reducing industries while taking the pressure off electricity prices.”</p>
<p>The report says that high expectations of victory caused Labor incorrectly to assume it had a stronger campaign machine and better digital capacity than the Coalition. It also led to “little consideration being given to querying Labor’s strategy and policy agenda”.</p>
<p>Following Clive Palmer’s huge advertising blitz, the review urges caps on spending by high wealth individuals. Also, influenced by the scare campaign that wrongly asserted Labor had in mind a death tax, the review said the issue of truth in advertising should be looked at.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126592/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The long-awaited review has pinpointed key flaw’s in Labor’s strategy leading up to the 2019 federal election, including a cluttered policy agenda and an unpopular leader.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1223862019-08-27T07:58:45Z2019-08-27T07:58:45ZTrust Me, I’m An Expert: Queensland still mystifies too many politicians but its needs are surprisingly simple<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289534/original/file-20190827-8874-1ezj42g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C5964%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are southern-born politicians talking about a state they essentially don't understand?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dust has well and truly settled on Scott Morrison’s surprise victory in this year’s federal election but opinion is still divided on exactly what happened in Queensland. </p>
<p>Why did Labor perform so poorly in the Sunshine State? Is Queensland an inherently conservative part of Australia? During the campaign, were southern-born politicians talking about a state they essentially didn’t understand? And – #Quexit jokes aside – is it time to redraw state lines in Australia, or even add new states?</p>
<p>Today on <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/podcasts/trust-me-podcast">Trust Me, I’m An Expert</a>, we bring you a discussion organised by The Conversation, recorded at Avid Reader bookshop in Brisbane and broadcast by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/regionalism,-politics-and-the-queensland-factor/11447502">Big Ideas</a> on the ABC’s RN. </p>
<p>In this chat, political scientist Anne Tiernan from Griffith University speaks with the University of Southern Queensland’s John Cole, who has research expertise in the history of Australian federation, regional development and regional communities.</p>
<p>Host Paul Barclay began by asking them to name the biggest misconceptions floating around about Queensland. </p>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="https://pca.st/VTv7">here</a> to listen to Trust Me, I’m An Expert on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear us on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Trust Me, I’m An Expert.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/trust-me-im-an-expert/id1290047736?mt=2&ign-mpt=uo%3D8"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3RydXN0LW1lLXBvZGNhc3QucnNz"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/trust-me-im-an-expert"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Trust-Me-Im-An-Expert-p1035757/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/trust-me-im-an-expert-Wa3E5A"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7myc7drbLJVaRitAMXLB7V"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
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<p><strong>Credits:</strong></p>
<p><em>Recording and editing by RN’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/regionalism,-politics-and-the-queensland-factor/11447502">Big Ideas</a>, additional editing by Sunanda Creagh.</em></p>
<p><strong>Additional audio</strong></p>
<p><em>Kindergarten by Unkle Ho, from <a href="https://www.elefanttraks.com/">Elefant Traks.</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifIw3wTeolE">CNN</a> report.</em></p>
<p><em>BBC <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyKXCa9KI0Q">report</a>.</em></p>
<h2>Images</h2>
<p><em>Shutterstock</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122386/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Two Queensland-based experts discuss what so many politicians and pundits get wrong about the Sunshine State – and what its citizens are crying out for.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1215412019-08-20T21:24:52Z2019-08-20T21:24:52ZTransgender hate crimes are on the rise even in Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287404/original/file-20190808-144868-caomik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C49%2C2928%2C1926&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People participate in the 2016 Trans Pride March in Toronto.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Eduardo Lima</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada has a good reputation for LGBTQ rights. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/justin-trudeau-elizabeth-may-jagmeet-singh-vancouver-pride-parade-1.5236378">Federal political leaders, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, attend pride parades across the country</a>. But a rising tide of violence against transgender people raises the question: what will Canada do to protect trans and nonbinary people from targeted violence?</p>
<p>I am a security and surveillance doctoral researcher and recently received a Pierre Elliot Trudeau Foundation scholarship to further look into anti-transgender trolls and digital vigilantes.</p>
<p>On a personal level, the hostility I’ve faced in the year and a half of transitioning as a trans woman has been immense. I’ve been aggressively harassed several times on Ottawa streets. I’m subject to constant weird looks, angry glares and misgendering. For these reasons, I battle anxiety as I leave my apartment, obsessing with how I look. If I look out of place it might provoke someone to lash out. This vortex of hostility and fear makes it challenging for me to trust strangers in my own community.</p>
<p>Our institutions and public spaces have <a href="https://www.sealpress.com/titles/susan-stryker/transgender-history-second-edition/9781580056908/">historically ignored the basic rights and dignity of trans folk</a>. At best, we are invisible in our institutions and in the daily grind of most Canadian lives, at worst, we are subject to hatred, suspicion and disgust. </p>
<p>On July 22, Statistics Canada published <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510006601">police-reported nationwide crime statistics for 2018</a>. The report includes a table on hate crime that includes sexual orientation. Although the “gender identity and expression” category <a href="https://openparliament.ca/bills/42-1/C-16/">was recently adopted in the federal hate speech legislation</a>, it does it not have its own category in the charts for the official Statistics Canada report. <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510006601">Statistics Canada says those hate crimes are reported as “transgender” and “agender” but gets put into the “other” category within “sex.”</a></p>
<p>Before the new wording in the legislation, police had not kept an official record on the hate crimes against trans and nonbinary folks. This invisibility had troubling implications for our criminal justice system. With no record of the violence we experience, there was no need for the government to act.</p>
<p>Now that there is an official federal category, will we start to see changes in the reporting of the violence? It seems like we still have a ways to go. </p>
<h2>Climate of fear</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/education/u-of-t-professor-opposes-transgender-bill-at-senate-committee-hearing/article35035768/">vitriolic national debates around Bill C-16 which proposed that the Canadian Human Rights Act be amended to include trans and nonbinary folks set the tone for transgender rights in Canada</a>. The legislation was successful, but the language of hatred used by far-right politicians and residents around the legitimacy of transgender and nonbinary identities had a chilling effect on our feeling of public safety and security.</p>
<p>This climate of fear for trans and nonbinary folks has been distilling for years. <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/canadian-human-rights-act">The category of “sexual orientation” was officially added to the Canadian Human Rights Act in 1996</a> after a former Canadian Armed Forces captain, Joshua Birch, was discharged for publicly identifying as gay. Birch and his team argued that the exclusion of sexual orientation from human rights legislation constituted a form of discrimination. </p>
<p>Roughly two decades later, transgender folks became recognized as a protected class. Up until recently, trans folks have not been protected by Canadian human rights legislation.</p>
<h2>Permission to hate</h2>
<p>Recently in Ontario, Premier Doug Ford and his government meddled with how transgender issues are taught in the primary educational curriculum. The Ford administration decided the topic of “gender identity” was not “age appropriate” for grade school and <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/03/15/doug-fords-government-wont-scrap-any-topics-from-liberal-sex-ed-curriculum_a_23693359/">removed it from the curriculum, postponing this lesson to Grade 8.</a>
Ford’s move reinforces the negative idea that being transgender is inappropriate and exceptional.</p>
<p>In a journal article published in <em>Critical Criminology</em>, researchers Barbara Perry and Ryan Scrivens from the Centre on Hate, Bias and Extremism at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology make the argument that hate crimes grow substantially in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10612-018-9394-y">“enabling environments” where people are given a tacit “permission to hate.”</a></p>
<p>Another example of this can be found in the United Kingdom, where the police do keep a record of anti-transgender hate crimes. In a recent article, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48756370">the BBC reported that there had been an 81 per cent increase in crimes against transgender and nonbinary folks in just one year</a>. </p>
<p>This increase in violence has thrived in the context of growing public hostility towards trans people. The BBC article reports: “Transgender people have their existence debated on a near daily basis across U.K. media, and several activists believe this negative attention reinforces the poor treatment they receive on our streets.”</p>
<h2>Community data</h2>
<p>Despite the lack of police data, there has been some research into the struggles faced by trans Canadians. In 2013, the Trans PULSE Project published results of a <a href="http://transpulseproject.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Transphobia-E-Bulletin-6-vFinal-English.pdf">survey of 433 trans Ontarians</a>. Their report said, “experiences of transphobia were nearly universal among trans Ontarians, with 98 per cent reporting at least one experience of transphobia.”</p>
<p>Another survey conducted by Egale in 2011, which surveyed 3,700 LGBTQ students across Canada, reported that <a href="https://egale.ca/every-class/">74 per cent of trans students in Canada faced verbal harassment and 37 per cent have faced physical harassment</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287403/original/file-20190808-144843-107y908.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287403/original/file-20190808-144843-107y908.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287403/original/file-20190808-144843-107y908.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287403/original/file-20190808-144843-107y908.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287403/original/file-20190808-144843-107y908.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287403/original/file-20190808-144843-107y908.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287403/original/file-20190808-144843-107y908.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People cheer on participants of the 2016 Trans Pride March in Toronto.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Eduardo Lima</span></span>
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<p>By not explicitly naming the violence, the state demonstrates complicity in the invisibility and violence that trans and nonbinary folks face.</p>
<p>When police institutions ignore the existence of hate crimes, it sets up an environment that enables more violence and harassment. Analyzing a series of police interviews, Perry and Scrivens found police were generally apathetic around the rising threat of far-right hate crimes. </p>
<p>They wrote: “In addition to the neglect paid to any known right-wing extremism presence, some police personnel deny — at least publicly — that there is any risk associated with the extreme-right. They trivialized their potential for growth and violence.”</p>
<h2>Federal election</h2>
<p>Election season is just around the corner, there is no better time to put the fire under the feet of our elected representatives. </p>
<p>In the meantime, <a href="https://transpulsecanada.ca/survey/">Trans PULSE is conducting another large survey into the experiences of transgender and nonbinary folk</a>. Share, and if applicable, participate. This is an opportunity to build a record of our experiences in the vacuum left in the wake of our exclusion from the institutional memory.</p>
<p>We need to have a collective conversation about the consequences of the widespread oppression and persecution many of us face when general anti-trans hostility is allowed to fester unacknowledged. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121541/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abigail Curlew receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) doctoral fellowship and the Pierre Elliot Trudeau Foundation (PETF) Doctoral Scholarship. She is affiliated with Pierre Elliot Trudeau Foundation. </span></em></p>A recent report on crime statistics leaves out transgender and nonbinary folk. A security and surveillance expert says this invisibility is harmful. Without stats, we cannot counter violence.Abigail Curlew, PhD Sociology, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1219292019-08-18T20:02:31Z2019-08-18T20:02:31ZSurge in pre-poll numbers at 2019 federal election changes the relationship between voters and parties<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288260/original/file-20190816-136199-o8otuy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Another issue is that pre-polling gives an advantage to the major parties over the smaller ones, due to the latter having fewer resources.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Bianca de Marchi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the morning of the last Monday in April, 2019, federal election officials opened the doors of more than 500 pre-poll voting centres around Australia, and waited for the voters to turn up. It was the first day of the three-week early voting period leading up to the May 18 election day. </p>
<p>They didn’t have to wait long. By the end of the day, 123,793 voters had walked through the doors and cast their votes – more than the enrolment of an average House of Representatives electorate, and a record number for the first day of pre-polling. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-weeks-of-early-voting-has-a-significant-effect-on-democracy-heres-why-115909">Three weeks of early voting has a significant effect on democracy. Here's why</a>
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<p>That evening, the rush to the polls attracted <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6093970/voters-give-the-first-debate-to-shorten/?cs=14231">comment</a> at the first leaders’ debate. Opposition leader Bill Shorten claimed people were voting early because they wanted “change”; Prime Minister Scott Morrison insisted it showed people “deserve” to know the cost of opposition policies.</p>
<p>In turn, pre-polling attracted more media attention than in previous campaigns.</p>
<p>Pre-polling increased steadily through the campaign, culminating on the last Friday with 710,000 pre-poll voters. The total for the full three weeks was 4.7 million, or 31.6% of total turnout. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288257/original/file-20190816-136208-xo66st.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288257/original/file-20190816-136208-xo66st.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288257/original/file-20190816-136208-xo66st.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288257/original/file-20190816-136208-xo66st.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288257/original/file-20190816-136208-xo66st.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288257/original/file-20190816-136208-xo66st.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288257/original/file-20190816-136208-xo66st.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Picture.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author supplied</span></span>
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<p>Another 1.6 million voted early by post. In short, nearly four in ten voters decided, before the campaign had finished, that they had heard enough and were ready to cast their votes. </p>
<p>Pre-polling has come of age. While it has been on the rise in recent electoral cycles, it reached record levels federally in 2019. Casting a vote before election day has been transformed, over a very few electoral cycles, from the occasional practice of a limited number of eligible voters to the habitual form of electoral participation of a large minority of the electorate. </p>
<h2>Who votes early?</h2>
<p>Despite the popularity of pre-polling, there is a puzzling unevenness about it. Some voters love it more than others. <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/Federal_Elections/2019/downloads.htm">Australian Electoral Commission data</a> show the Northern Territory, with its own particular geography and demography, had the highest form of pre-poll voting at 42.9% of turnout. Victoria (37.2%), ACT (36.5%) and Queensland (35.6%) were well above average, while Tasmania (19%), SA (21.7%) and WA (22.9%) lagged. NSW sat just below the national average at 30.1%.</p>
<p>While the rates of all states and territories were lower in 2016, their relative percentages were very similar. </p>
<p>Pre-polling is particularly strong in rural electorates. Ten of the 15 electorates in the country with the highest pre-poll percentage were rural electorates, despite the fact that the <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/maps.htm">AEC</a> has less than one third of seats classed in this category. All 15 of these seats are in Victoria, NSW or Queensland.</p>
<p>By contrast, 13 of the 15 electorates with the lowest percentage of pre-poll voters came from WA, Tasmania and South Australia, and just three of these were from outside the main metropolitan areas. </p>
<p>In terms of political allegiance, the inclination of early voters is well known: those voting early have tended to lean towards the Coalition. As psephologist Peter Brent has shown, this gap has only widened in recent electoral cycles, despite the growing number of early voters.</p>
<p>In 2004, the Coalition did 4% better in early voting than voting on election day; by 2019 this gap rose to just over 5%. There is strong evidence for Coalition mobilisation of postal voters, with 312,391 postal vote applications received from Coalition parties in 2019, and just 149,582 from the Labor party.</p>
<p>The reasons why people vote early are still widely debated, but the key <a href="https://law.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/2902152/Convenience-Voting-Report-1-October-2018.pdf">reasons</a> are convenience and access.</p>
<p>There is also <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00323187.2018.1561155?journalCode=rpnz20">evidence</a> that indicates older people like voting earlier. Such arguments are borne out in those figures, given the older demographics of rural areas, and the greater distances that voters may need to travel to access voting booths.</p>
<h2>Has deregulating early voting made a difference?</h2>
<p>One factor cited as an explanation for the increase in early voting is the easing of restrictions on the practice. A number of jurisdictions including Victoria (2010), Queensland (2015), and Western Australia (2016) have made it easier to vote early at pre-poll booths for state elections by removing the need for voters to provide justifications for doing so. The rationale when doing so has been that this would make such voting forms more accessible.</p>
<p>While we would expect to see these jurisdictions record higher levels of pre-poll voting, the outcomes of these changes in legislation have been mixed (see chart two). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288263/original/file-20190816-136186-11wzl45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288263/original/file-20190816-136186-11wzl45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288263/original/file-20190816-136186-11wzl45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288263/original/file-20190816-136186-11wzl45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288263/original/file-20190816-136186-11wzl45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288263/original/file-20190816-136186-11wzl45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288263/original/file-20190816-136186-11wzl45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author supplied</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Victoria’s 2018 state election recorded the highest levels of pre-poll voting of any state, at 37.29%, and this may be linked to their decision to deregulate the practice earlier than elsewhere. But at their last state elections, WA, while recording a boost in postal voting (which remains regulated) had a pre-poll rate of 15.47%, and Queensland of 19.64% - both still well short of Victoria. </p>
<p>While pre-poll voting in Queensland and WA increased after deregulation, it did not increase any more markedly than other jurisdictions that retained regulation.</p>
<p>Moreover, each of these jurisdictions recorded a prepoll rate for the 2019 Federal election equal to, or higher than, the previous state election, despite the Commonwealth retaining the need for voters to justify their decision to do so. </p>
<p>While in Victoria the rate was almost identical, in WA and Queensland the Federal rate of pre-poll was much higher.</p>
<h2>Conclusions: unexpected implications</h2>
<p>An examination of early voting data, particularly around the practice of pre-polling, demonstrates clear but unexplained trends. Tasmania, WA and South Australia lag well behind the other states and territories in pre-polling. There is even clearer unevenness within states, where rural and regional voters are voting early in significantly higher numbers than their metropolitan counterparts.</p>
<p>The data also indicate that making forms of early voting more accessible (such as by deregulating pre-polling) has in itself not led to marked increases in the practice.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/difficult-for-labor-to-win-in-2022-using-new-pendulum-plus-senate-and-house-preference-flows-119005">Difficult for Labor to win in 2022 using new pendulum, plus Senate and House preference flows</a>
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<p>What we also know is that the large rates of early voting have changed the relationship between voters and the people or parties they are choosing to vote for, in that many voters cast their ballots before the parties have released all their policies. </p>
<p>Other unanticipated effects have emerged. In 2019, we saw many early voters casting votes <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-03/how-you-can-vote-when-federal-election-candidate-has-resigned/11072830">for candidates who were later disendorsed</a> by their own parties.</p>
<p>This arises because the early voting period occupies the maximum available time on the campaign calendar, beginning as soon as possible after close of nominations. This may create a dysfunction between voters and the parties candidates claim to represent on the ballot. </p>
<p>Pre-polling also leads to uneven playing fields between major parties as opposed to minor parties and independents, due to the latter having fewer resources.</p>
<p>There are also additional challenges faced by electoral commissions in the provision of pre-poll centres and staff to manage this surge. This research has been published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-weeks-of-early-voting-has-a-significant-effect-on-democracy-heres-why-115909">The Conversation</a> and in a previous <a href="https://law.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/2943386/Changes-to-Voting-Report-December-2018-FINAL.pdf">report</a> on voting flexibility late last year.</p>
<p>The increased uptake of early voting in 2019 only exacerbates these implications, many of which may not have been anticipated until recently. </p>
<p>While early voting is important in providing greater accessibility to voters and encouraging turnout, thought should be given to reviewing the full implications through the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM).</p>
<p>One possibility is to retain the current forms of early voting but limit the pre-poll period to two weeks rather than three. This would retain flexibility for voters, but make the process more manageable for all the stakeholders concerned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Mills and Martin Drum's research was funded through the Electoral Regulation Research Network which is jointly funded by the New South Wales Electoral Commission, the Victoria Electoral Commission, and Melbourne Law School.
Neither author works for, consults, owns shares in or receives funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Drum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An analysis of pre-polling figures shows a surge in early voting, particularly in regional areas. But questions remain about how it affects the relationship between voters and parties.Stephen Mills, Hon Senior Lecturer, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of SydneyMartin Drum, Lecturer Politics and International Relations, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1213002019-08-01T07:01:01Z2019-08-01T07:01:01ZHigh Court challenge in Kooyong and Chisholm unlikely to win, but may still land a blow<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286570/original/file-20190801-169684-1eeel9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The posters in question, such as this one in the seat of Chisholm, are written in Chinese and are in the same colours used by the AEC. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Twitter/Luke Hilakari</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>High Court challenge to Liberal victories in Kooyong, Chisholm </p>
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<p>So read <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/high-court-challenge-to-liberal-victories-in-kooyong,-chisholm/11371890">the headlines</a> on Wednesday. But what is the law behind these <a href="https://t.co/9kSPBW51ir?amp=1">election petitions</a>? </p>
<p>My new book, <a href="http://www.federationpress.com.au/bookstore/book.asp?isbn=9781760021917">The Law of Politics</a>, offers a detailed examination of the laws surrounding Australian elections. Here, I’ll offer a potted explanation of the substance and process at play in the challenges to the results in these two Victorian seats at the 2019 federal election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-court-challenge-to-treasurer-josh-frydenberg-under-section-44-121277">High Court challenge to Treasurer Josh Frydenberg under section 44</a>
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<p>Amid all the recent concerns about online political disinformation worldwide, and about MPs’ qualifications in Australia, it is almost reassuring to be back on the terrain of old-fashioned, misleading campaign material.</p>
<p>The petitions allege that physical posters used at polling stations by the Liberal Party were likely to mislead electors <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s329.html">in “casting”</a> their votes.</p>
<p>The posters were written in Chinese and used in two seats with significant proportions of Chinese immigrants. Headed “CORRECT VOTING METHOD”, the posters went on to advise electors to vote “1” for the Liberal Party, then number the other boxes. The posters were authorised, in small print at ankle height, by the Liberal Party. But their appearance aped the purple and white used by Australian Electoral Commission posters. </p>
<p>Outside South Australia, there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-to-tighten-the-reins-on-politicians-and-their-truths-62457">no “truth in political advertising” laws</a> in Australia. So what constitutes the offence of misleading an elector in casting a vote?</p>
<p>At its crudest, you cannot publish false addresses of how or where to vote. Nor can you claim <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/vic/VCAT/2001/1847.html">false party affiliations</a> or mimic <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/qld/QSC/1998/190.html">other parties’ how-to-vote material</a>.</p>
<p>The commission did not seek to have the posters removed on election day. It’s hard to get a court injunction in the space of a couple of hours. The commission doesn’t have copyright in its colours, but having spent public money establishing a brand, it needs to protect it. Instead, an independent candidate and another citizen have filed these petitions.</p>
<p>Election petitions go back centuries. They aren’t vehicles for purifying elections. They are tough to mount and to win.</p>
<p>The first hurdle was a tight time limit. The petitions had to be filed within 40 days of the election “writs” being finalised. That’s just 40 days to brief lawyers, assemble basic evidence and plead the claim. </p>
<p>As for winning a case – which means forcing a fresh election in either seat – it is not enough to show that the posters were likely to mislead. It must also be shown that the election outcomes were likely to have been affected.</p>
<p>In Kooyong, Josh Frydenberg’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/kooy">margin over the Greens</a> was 11,289 votes. There is no way upwards of 6,000 electors not only read and understood the signs, but were likely to have been fooled into voting differently. </p>
<p>In Chisholm, Gladys Liu’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/chis">majority over Labor</a> was 1,090. It’s theoretically feasible that over 550 voters were swayed, especially as Chisholm is heavily populated with Mandarin and Cantonese speakers (both groups can read Chinese script).</p>
<p>But how could this be proven? Might a psephologist like Antony Green be called? Is there any evidence of a strong and clear benefit to the Liberal vote where the posters appeared, as opposed to results at, say, early voting booths? And what is the control group for such comparisons? </p>
<p>One quirk of election petitions is uncertainty about where the onus of proof lies. On one view, the petitioner must prove their case on the balance of probabilities. It’s a big thing to unseat an MP and march the voters back to the polls.</p>
<p>On another view, elections are about public trust, so if the posters seem legally dodgy and widespread, it is up to the Liberal Party to demonstrate there was little chance the election result was affected.</p>
<p>On top of this, the law beseeches the court to act quickly. The status of parliament needs to be finalised sooner rather than later. The High Court usually does not try fact-heavy petitions, so it’s likely to refer them to the Federal Court.</p>
<p>Then there’s the question of legal costs. In civil cases, costs are routinely awarded to the winning litigant. This isn’t to punish the loser, but to indemnify the other side for the decision to keep litigating. </p>
<p>But, as we just noted, election petitions are not routine commercial litigation. There is an overarching public interest at stake. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-robo-calls-to-spam-texts-annoying-campaign-tricks-that-are-legal-109943">From robo calls to spam texts: annoying campaign tricks that are legal</a>
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<p>If the Liberal Party is found to have engaged in misleading behaviour, the court can require it to bear the costs of its defence. That happened to the Labor Party in <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/qld/QSC/1998/215.html">a Queensland case</a>.</p>
<p>It’s folly to predict the outcome of litigation without hearing the case. But it’s telling that the Labor Party, which would stand to gain most from a fresh election especially in Chisholm, has not sued.</p>
<p>From this vantage, the court may well find the Liberal Party breached the law and therefore must bear most of its own costs. </p>
<p>But there is no way Frydenberg’s win in Kooyong will be imperilled, and it would take an intuitive leap to find that Liu’s majority in Chisholm is unsafe.</p>
<p>In short, the petitioners may win the battle but lose the war.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121300/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Orr is an expert member of the NSW Electoral Commission's iVote Panel. </span></em></p>Winning the case will be difficult, because it’s not enough to show the posters were misleading – the petitioners will need to show it affected the outcome in the seat.Graeme Orr, Professor of Law, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1208782019-07-24T22:23:14Z2019-07-24T22:23:14ZThe Christian right’s efforts to transform society<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285432/original/file-20190723-110195-zcc6hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C185%2C4000%2C2934&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer at the Calgary Stampede on July 6. Groups associated with the Christian right are expected to support his political party in the October elections.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cpimages.com/fotoweb/index.fwx">The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47940659">The battle now raging in several American states over women’s reproductive rights</a> is a direct result of the Christian right’s efforts to impose its religious values on the family and in politics. </p>
<p>The polarization around abortion in the United States is at such a level that some of the leaders of these conservative religious groups are promoting the idea of an impending <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/26/abortion-ban-rightwing-christian-figures-civil-war-predictions">second American Civil War.</a></p>
<p>We should not assume that the debates generated by the Christian right in the United States will not have any impact in Canada. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/unplanned-anti-abortion-movie-journey-to-56-theatres-1.5208979">Indeed, the recent release of the film <em>Unplanned</em></a> shows that this politico-religious coalition seeks to change attitudes in Canada too.</p>
<p>That’s why it’s so important to be vigilant about the fight being waged by some anti-abortion lobby groups in this country. The <a href="https://www.campaignlifecoalition.com/">Campaign Life Coalition</a>, with its 200,000 members, and <a href="https://www.itstartsrightnow.ca/">RightNow</a> are tirelessly working to elect candidates who oppose abortion. They successfully supported the recently elected candidates of provincial Conservative parties in Ontario and Alberta. </p>
<p>These lobbies frame the abortion debate as a human rights issue. Like Sam Oosterhoff, a 21-year-old member of the Ontario legislature for Niagara West in Premier Doug Ford’s Conservative government, <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/how-canadas-growing-anti-abortion-movement-plans-to-swing-the-next-federal-election/">many want to make the very idea of having an abortion unthinkable in Canada </a> in the next 30 years or so. </p>
<p>While criminalizing abortion in Canada could be a challenge, it is nevertheless possible for a provincial government to eliminate funding for institutions that offer women the choice to terminate unwanted pregnancies.</p>
<h2>Evangelical support for Trump</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/evangelical-christians-face-deepening-crisis/593353/">The Christian right</a> had an impact on the 2016 U.S. election, securing Donald Trump’s presidency.</p>
<p>Indeed, part of Trump’s success stemmed from the fact <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-trump-emboldening-right-wing-extremism-in-canada-82635">that 81 per cent of white evangelicals voted for him.</a> <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/03/18/evangelical-approval-of-trump-remains-high-but-other-religious-groups-are-less-supportive/">According to Pew Research</a>, Trump still receives his highest support from white Christians heading into the 2020 election, with 69 per cent of evangelicals poised to endorse him along with white Protestants at 48 per cent and white Catholics at 44 per cent. </p>
<p>Comparatively, Trump only garners the support of 12 per cent of black Protestants and 26 per cent of non-white Catholics, according to the Pew poll. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285154/original/file-20190722-11370-p9jhcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">President Donald Trump arrives at the White House in July 2019. His rise to power comes from the fact that 81 percent of the white evangelicals voted for him.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</span></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-democrats-republicans/house-condemns-trump-over-racist-comments-tweeted-at-congresswomen-idUSKCN1UB1QO">The U.S. president’s racist comments on Twitter </a> recently have likely further contributed to the polarization of the religious electorate in the United States. But even if some evangelical leaders condemned the tone of Trump’s tweets, <a href="https://www.charismanews.com/opinion/in-the-line-of-fire/77179-were-president-trump-s-recent-tweets-racist?utm_source=Charisma%20News%20Daily&utm_medium=email&utm_content=subscriber_id:5298752&utm_campaign=CNO%20daily%20-%202019-07-16">some have nonetheless denied the racist nature</a> of his comments. </p>
<p>Such Christian right leaders will still vote for Trump against any Democratic candidate. One, Michael Brown, has even <a href="https://stream.org/liberal-media-wont-shame-voting-trump/">clearly stated</a> why he will vote for Trump in 2020. It’s all about the agenda:</p>
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<p>“In the same way, when it comes to the economy, if it’s Trump vs. a socialist, he has my vote. The same when it comes to religious liberties. Or standing with Israel. Or pushing back against radical LGBT activism. Trump gets my vote, and the liberal media won’t shame me out of it.”</p>
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<h2>Transforming society</h2>
<p>What exactly is <a href="http://nationalhumanitiescenter.org/tserve/twenty/tkeyinfo/chr_rght.htm">the Christian right</a>? </p>
<p>It is a religious coalition with political aims that is mainly comprised of evangelicals and conservative Catholics and Protestants. It also sometimes attracts the support of politically conservative Mormons and Jewish groups. </p>
<p>The coalition unites around common causes such as anti-abortion activism, opposition to the rights of LGBTQ people and sex education classes. They also speak out in favour of the promotion of prayer in schools and the teaching of creationism (or intelligent design), the fight against euthanasia and the safeguarding of what they call religious freedom.</p>
<p>The agenda of the Christian right can be summed up essentially as promoting the idea of a Christian nationalism in which the establishment of Judeo-Christian “values” is the foundation of the country’s law. </p>
<p>To achieve its objectives, the Christian right has adopted what is called a “<a href="https://www.politicalresearch.org/2016/08/18/dominionism-rising-a-theocratic-movement-hiding-in-plain-sight#sthash.TCmOSUyU.oTPWTXkf.dpbs">dominionist</a>” strategy, where Christians are called to exercise power and dominate the world, according to their interpretation of a passage from the book of Genesis (1:26-28). </p>
<p>This idea is framed in terms of “social transformation” and presented as the <a href="https://www.charismamag.com/life/culture/25597-do-you-know-the-seven-mountains-mandate-for-every-christian">Seven Mountains Mandate</a> (also referred to as the seven moulders or spheres of culture).</p>
<p>According to their plan, a social “change of attitude” can be effected by influencing the seven “spheres” or “mountains” of culture: religion, education, economics, politics, arts and entertainment, media and the family. </p>
<p>But why the need for “social transformation?” The end goal is “dominion,” the establishment of God’s Kingdom on Earth. It is the fulfilment of Jesus’ prayer: “Your kingdom come, your will be done <em>on Earth</em> as it is in heaven.” (Matthew 6:10)</p>
<p>For many Christian leaders who embrace dominionist ideas, social transformation will not be achieved through massive religious conversions. In fact, <a href="https://youtu.be/2RLHlXZMdhM">one key proponent of the Seven Mountains Mandate believes that</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The business of shifting culture or transforming nations does not require a majority of conversions… We need more disciples in the right places, the high places. Minorities of people can shape the agenda, if properly aligned and deployed… The world is a matrix of overlapping systems or spheres of influence. We are called to go into the entire matrix and invade every system with an influence that liberates that system’s fullest potential… The battle in each sphere is over the ideas that dominate that sphere and between the individuals who have the most power to advance those ideas.” </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Support for Scheer</h2>
<p>This all requires the mobilization of people belonging to groups rallied to the goals of the Christian right. For example, charismatic dominionist groups succeed in such mobilization by forming what they call “<a href="http://www.intheworkplace.com/apps/articles/?articleid=22896">apostles in the workplace</a>” — people who aim to penetrate the seven spheres of culture in order to effect the desired change.</p>
<p>As we approach the federal election in Canada, groups associated with the Christian right are also seeking to gradually insert themselves into the various “spheres of culture” and influence the political agenda. </p>
<p>Some Canadian evangelicals have formed coalitions aligned to Christian right ideas. <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5511047/conversion-therapy-ban-3/">One recent initiative</a> is the <a href="https://oneaccord.one">West Coast Christian Accord</a>, a group of evangelical leaders seeking to mobilize Christians across Canada to vote for candidates they believe will safeguard their religious values in the upcoming federal election. </p>
<p>Clearly, the current political climate influenced by white evangelicals in the United States has also emboldened similar religious groups ahead of the Canadian election.</p>
<p>Such groups will likely give their support to Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, the candidate who best represents their own socio-conservative values. </p>
<p>Even if Scheer says <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/andrew-scheer-trudeau-abortion-alabama-1.5140900">he has no plans to reopen the abortion debate</a> in Canada, is he speaking the truth? We may have the answer in the near future.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120878/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>André Gagné ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The current political climate influenced by white evangelicals in the United States has emboldened similar religious groups in Canada ahead of our own federal election.André Gagné, Associate Professor, Department of Theological Studies; Full Member of the Centre for the Study of Learning and Performance, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1208862019-07-24T01:47:35Z2019-07-24T01:47:35ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Paul Oosting responds to GetUp’s critics<p>After a bruising election outcome, GetUp is regrouping around a batch of issues - with press freedom the big ticket item. The activist group’s national director Paul Oosting, who has been in Canberra for the parliamentary week, says this is “deeply, deeply important to our members right now. It’s absolutely the number one issue that they care about”.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We’re absolutely in this campaign for the long haul. How we protect press freedoms, as of today - [it] isn’t entirely clear how we get there from a parliamentary and political point of view, but we’ve absolutely got to find a way because press freedom is central to our democracy. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Post-election, GetUp has faced strong critics, most recently the Liberal member for the South Australian seat of Boothby, Nicolle Flint, who has accused it and unions of “creating an environment where abuse, harassment, intimidation, shouting people down and even stalking became the new normal”.</p>
<p>Oosting says these claims “aren’t true” - they are “very much self-serving from the Coalition in an attempt to muddy our brand”. </p>
<p>He admits GetUp made some mistakes - in a “calling script” in one electorate, and a wrong “tone” in some advertising, notably <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-24/getup-pulls-tony-abbott-ad-over-climate-change/11041878">depicting a Tony Abbott figure</a> refusing to help a drowning person.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In terms of our internal processes and how we think more broadly around those things[…][we]absolutely will carry those lessons through to future campaigns.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But in Boothby, Oosting says, “Nicole Flint doesn’t really have a high profile. So our campaign wasn’t centred on her, it was centred on issues like climate change”. </p>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="http://pca.st/BVa3#t=3m34s">here</a> to listen to Politics with Michelle Grattan on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear it on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Politics with Michelle Grattan.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p>
<p><strong>Image:</strong></p>
<p>AAP/ Joel Carrett</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120886/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>GetUp's national director Paul Oosting joins Michelle Grattan to respond to critics who accuse the organisation of "creating an environment...[of] abuse, harassment, intimidation".Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1190052019-06-21T03:16:43Z2019-06-21T03:16:43ZDifficult for Labor to win in 2022 using new pendulum, plus Senate and House preference flows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280646/original/file-20190621-149810-215whz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Unless Labor improves markedly with the lower-educated, they risk losing the seat count while winning the popular vote at the next election. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>UPDATE: Links to Australian Electoral Commission pages in this article no longer work, as the Electoral Commission has moved its results to archived pages <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDefault-24310.htm">available here.</a></em></p>
<p>Australian elections have been won in outer metropolitan and regional electorates, but Labor did <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByStateByDemographic-24310.htm">badly in swing terms</a> in those types of seats at the May 18 election. In inner metropolitan areas, where Labor had swings in its favour, most seats are safe for one side or the other.</p>
<p>You can see this particularly in Queensland. The provincial seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-157.htm">Capricornia</a> blew out from a 0.6% LNP margin to 12.4%, the outer metropolitan seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-162.htm">Forde</a> from 0.6% to 8.6% and the rural seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-311.htm">Flynn</a> from 1.0% to 8.7%.</p>
<p>In NSW, the rural seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-138.htm">Page</a> went from a 2.3% to a 9.5% Nationals margin, and the provincial seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-146.htm">Robertson</a> from a 1.1% to 4.2% Liberal margin. Even in Victoria, the only state to swing to Labor in two party terms, the outer metropolitan seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-223.htm">La Trobe</a>, went from a 3.5% to a 4.5% Liberal margin.</p>
<p>Ignoring seats with strong independent challengers like Warringah and Wentworth, the biggest swings to Labor occurred in seats already held by Labor, or safe conservative seats. There was a 6.4% swing to Labor in Julie Bishop’s old seat of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-238.htm">Curtin</a>, but the Liberals still hold it by a 14.3% margin. The Liberals hold <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-215.htm">Higgins</a> by a 3.9% margin despite a 6.1% swing to Labor.</p>
<p>After the election, the Coalition holds 77 of the 151 seats and Labor 68. Assuming there is no net change in the six crossbenchers, Labor <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByDivision-24310-NAT.htm">will require a swing</a> of 0.6% to gain the two seats needed to deprive the Coalition of a majority (Bass and Chisholm). To win more seats than the Coalition, Labor needs to gain five seats, a 3.1% swing. To win a majority (76 seats), Labor needs to gain eight seats, a 3.9% swing.</p>
<p>As Labor won 48.5% of the two-party vote at the election, it needs 49.1% to deprive the Coalition of a majority, 51.6% to win more seats than the Coalition, and 52.4% for a Labor majority. Mayo and Warringah were not counted in swings required as they are held by crossbenchers. Warringah is likely to be better for the Liberals in 2022 without Tony Abbott running. </p>
<p>It will be a bit harder for Labor than the 0.6% swing notionally needed to cost the Coalition a majority, as the Liberals now have a sitting member in Chisholm and defeated a Labor member in Bass. The Liberals will thus gain from personal vote effects in both seats.</p>
<p>There will be redistributions before the next election, which are likely to affect margins. But unless Labor improves markedly with the lower-educated, they risk losing the seat count while winning the popular vote at the next election. </p>
<p>Had the polls for this election been about right and Labor had won by 51.0-49.0 (2.5% better than their actual vote), they would have added just three seats – Bass, Chisholm and Boothby – and the Coalition would have had a 74-71 seat lead.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-2019-election-results-education-divide-explains-the-coalitions-upset-victory-118601">Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>House preference flows</h2>
<p>The Electoral Commission will eventually release details of how every minor party’s preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition nationally and for each state, but this data is not available yet. However, we can make some deductions.</p>
<p>Nationally, Labor won 60.0% of <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm">all minor party</a> preferences, down from 64.2% in <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-20499-NAT.htm">2016</a>. This partly reflects the Greens share of all others falling from 44.0% in 2016 to 41.2%, but it also reflects more right-wing preference sources like One Nation and the United Australia Party (UAP). Had preferences from all parties flowed as they did in 2016, Labor would have won 49.2% of the two party vote, 0.7% higher than their actual vote.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-QLD.htm">Queensland</a>, Labor’s preference share dropped dramatically from 57.9% in 2016 to just 50.2%, even though the Greens share of all others rose slightly to 34.8% from 34.1% in 2016. Of the 29.6% who voted for a minor party in Queensland, the Greens won 10.3%, One Nation 8.9%, the UAP 3.5%, Katter’s Australian Party 2.5% and Fraser Anning’s party 1.8%. The flow of these right-wing preferences to the LNP almost compensated for Greens preferences to Labor.</p>
<p>Parties like One Nation and the UAP would have attracted most of their support from lower-educated voters who despised Labor and Bill Shorten. As I wrote in my previous article, there was a swing to the Coalition with lower-educated voters.</p>
<h2>Final Senate results: Coalition has strong position</h2>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/senate">Senate that sits</a> from July 1, the Coalition will hold 35 of the 76 senators, Labor 26, the Greens nine, One Nation two, Centre Alliance two, and one each for Cory Bernardi and Jacqui Lambie. The final Senate results were the same as in my June 3 preview of the likely Senate outcome.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-likely-to-have-strong-senate-position-as-their-senate-vote-jumps-3-118040">Coalition likely to have strong Senate position as their Senate vote jumps 3%</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The table below gives the senators elected for each state at this half-Senate election. A total of 40 of the 76 senators were up for election. The one “Other” senator is Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania. The table has been augmented with a percentage of seats won and a percentage of national Senate votes won at the election.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280159/original/file-20190619-52775-wgak73.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280159/original/file-20190619-52775-wgak73.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280159/original/file-20190619-52775-wgak73.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280159/original/file-20190619-52775-wgak73.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280159/original/file-20190619-52775-wgak73.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280159/original/file-20190619-52775-wgak73.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280159/original/file-20190619-52775-wgak73.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Final Senate results by state in 2019.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There was a small swing in late counting against the Coalition. When I wrote my previous Senate article, they had 38.3% of the national Senate vote (up 3.1%). <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm">They ended</a> with 38.0% (up 2.8%).</p>
<p>The Senate results are not very proportional, but this is mostly a consequence of electing six senators per state. If all 40 senators were elected nationally, the outcome would be far more proportional to vote share.</p>
<p>The Coalition and Greens benefitted from having large fractions of quotas on primary votes, which Labor and One Nation did not have in most states. Lambie was the only “Other” to poll a large fraction of a quota, and so she is the only Other to win.</p>
<p>Changes in Senate seats since the pre-election parliament were Coalition up four, Lambie up one, Labor, Greens and One Nation steady, and the Liberal Democrats, Brian Burston, Derryn Hinch, Tim Storer and Fraser Anning all lost their seats.</p>
<p>Ignoring Bernardi’s defection from the Coalition, changes since the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Australian_federal_election">2016 double-dissolution election</a> were Coalition up six, Labor and Greens steady, One Nation down two, and Family First, Liberal Democrats, Hinch and Centre Alliance all down one.</p>
<h2>Senate preference flows for each state</h2>
<p>In the Senate, voters are asked to number six boxes above the line or 12 below, though only one above or six below is required for a formal vote. All preferences are now voter-directed.</p>
<p>With six senators to be elected in each state, a quota was one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. In no state was there a narrow margin between the sixth elected senator and the next closest candidate. Preference information is sourced from The Poll Bludger for Queensland, Victoria, WA and SA <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/06/19/senate-entrails-examined/">here</a>, for NSW <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/06/18/nsw-senate-entrails-examined/">here</a> and for Tasmania <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/06/17/tasmanian-senate-entrails-examined/">here</a>.</p>
<p>In NSW, the Coalition had 2.69 quotas on primary votes, Labor 2.08, the Greens 0.61 and One Nation 0.34. <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefs-24310-NSW.htm">Jim Molan</a> won 2.9% or 0.20 quotas from fourth on the Coalition ticket on below the line votes, but was excluded a long way from the end. The Greens and third Coalition candidate each got almost a quota with One Nation trailing well behind.</p>
<p>In Victoria, the Coalition had 2.51 quotas, Labor 2.17, the Greens 0.74 and One Nation and Hinch both 0.19. Hinch finished seventh ahead of One Nation, but was unable to close on the Coalition, with the third Coalition candidate elected just short of a quota. The Greens crossed quota earlier on Labor preferences.</p>
<p>In Queensland, the LNP had 2.72 quotas, Labor 1.57, One Nation 0.71 and the Greens 0.69. One Nation and the LNP’s third candidate, in that order, crossed quota, and the Greens extended their lead over Labor’s second candidate from 1.8% to 2.7% after preferences.</p>
<p>In WA, the Liberals had 2.86 quotas, Labor 1.93, the Greens 0.82 and One Nation 0.41. The third Liberal, second Labor and Greens passed quota in that order with One Nation well behind. The Liberals beat Labor to quota on Nationals and Shooters preferences.</p>
<p>In SA, the Liberals had 2.64 quotas, Labor 2.12, the Greens 0.76 and One Nation 0.34. The Greens and third Liberal, in that order, reached quota well ahead of One Nation.</p>
<p>In Tasmania, the Liberals had 2.20 quotas, Labor 2.14, the Greens 0.87, Lambie 0.62 and One Nation 0.24. <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefs-24310-TAS.htm">Lisa Singh</a>, who won from sixth on Labor’s ticket on below the line votes in 2016, had 5.7% or 0.40 quotas this time in below the line votes. On her exclusion, Labor’s second candidate and Lambie were elected with quotas, well ahead of One Nation; the Greens had crossed quota earlier.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/06/senate-reform-performance-review-2019.html">Kevin Bonham</a> has a detailed review of the Senate system’s performance at this election, after it was introduced before the 2016 election. One thing that should be improved is the issue of preferences for “empty box” groups above the line. Such boxes without a name beside them confused voters, and these groups received far fewer preferences than they would have done with a name.</p>
<h2>UK Conservative leadership: Johnson vs Hunt</h2>
<p>On June 20, UK Conservative MPs finished winnowing the field of ten leadership candidates down to two. In the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/20/jeremy-hunt-and-boris-johnson-are-final-two-in-tory-leadership-race">final round</a>, Boris Johnson won 160 of the 313 Conservative MPs, Jeremy Hunt 77 and Michael Gove was eliminated with 75 votes.</p>
<p>Johnson and Hunt will now go to the full Conservative membership in a postal ballot expected to conclude by mid-July. Johnson is the heavy favourite to win, and become the next British PM. I will have a fuller report for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/">The Poll Bludger</a> by tomorrow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119005/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Notionally, Labor will need a 0.6% swing to win the next election. But the details make it much more complicated - and difficult.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1168292019-06-06T19:30:38Z2019-06-06T19:30:38ZIf it’s voluntary for developers to make affordable housing deals with councils, what can you expect?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276243/original/file-20190523-187176-jyd4lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many places overseas require developers to build a certain proportion of affordable housing, but Victoria has opted for a voluntary negotiated approach.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/construction-site-new-homes-792276415?src=ZI91x3LooGoRAPaCRrhDkg-1-19">Lichtwolke/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Housing in Australia is broken. Across the country, <a href="https://anglicare-ras.com/">only 2% of private rentals are affordable for a person on the minimum wage</a>. Less than 1% are affordable for a single person on the pension. There are 650,000 households who can’t afford housing at market rates in Australia right now and this figure is projected to reach <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/522/Modelling_costs_of_housing_provision_FINAL.pdf">over a million by 2036</a>. </p>
<p>The abject failure to meet the housing needs of lower-income households is partially due to <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-reboot-affordable-housing-funding-not-scrap-it-72861">decades of underfunded social housing</a> by government. Since the 1960s, the proportion of public housing in Australia has almost <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08111149608551610">halved from 8% </a><a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2018/contents/social-housing-dwellings">to 4.6%</a> of total housing stock. </p>
<p>Scott Morrison’s newly re-elected government made no election statements relevant to social housing. That suggests this situation is unlikely to change soon.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-reboot-affordable-housing-funding-not-scrap-it-72861">Australia needs to reboot affordable housing funding, not scrap it</a>
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<h2>Leaving it to the private sector</h2>
<p>As governments have stepped away from directly delivering affordable housing, more emphasis has been placed on the private sector and market forces to deliver this social good. Internationally, policies like <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/policy/ahuri-briefs/Understanding-inclusionary-zoning">inclusionary zoning</a> require developers to provide a portion of affordable housing in return for planning permission. </p>
<p>For example, in San Francisco inclusionary zoning has been in place since 1992. This policy has <a href="http://default.sfplanning.org/legislative_changes/inclusionary_affordable_requirements/Section_415_amendments_Case_Repost_adoption-042717_FINAL.pdf">generated 4,600 permanently affordable units since 2002</a>. Developers received no incentives in return for being required to deliver this housing. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.churchilltrust.com.au/media/fellows/Hodyl_L_2014_Social_outcomes_in_hyper-dense_high-rise_residential_environments_1.pdf">In Vancouver</a>, developers wishing to build above a 3:1 plot ratio (for example, three storeys on 100% of the site, or six storeys on 50% of the site) in the CBD must provide social housing or other community amenities. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ten-lessons-from-cities-that-have-risen-to-the-affordable-housing-challenge-102852">Ten lessons from cities that have risen to the affordable housing challenge</a>
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<p>In contrast, the state of Victoria has very few regulations that encourage or enforce affordable housing or other community benefits in return for development permissions. The rezoning of Fisherman’s Bend for development is <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/lowend-buyers-shut-out-of-fishermans-bend-20141101-11fh5p.html">one particularly egregious example</a> in Melbourne. </p>
<h2>Victoria’s plan for negotiations</h2>
<p>In 2018, the Victorian government took some initial steps towards involving private developers in providing affordable housing. It <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/policy-and-strategy/affordable-housing">changed the Planning and Environment Act 1987</a> to designate affordable housing as a valid planning objective and created a mechanism for negotiated affordable housing agreements. </p>
<p>Local councils can now ask for affordable housing as part of planning approval processes. While these negotiations will inevitably generate a wide range of outcomes through a variety of arrangements, one likely permutation is shown below.</p>
<p>The local council and developer will enter into a negotiation and decide on a “reasonable” affordable housing contribution. In this instance, the developer will sell, “gift” or lease a number of units to a not-for-profit housing provider, which will manage the units and ensure eligible, low-income households occupy the home. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274240/original/file-20190514-60560-1xpbo4n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274240/original/file-20190514-60560-1xpbo4n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274240/original/file-20190514-60560-1xpbo4n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274240/original/file-20190514-60560-1xpbo4n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274240/original/file-20190514-60560-1xpbo4n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274240/original/file-20190514-60560-1xpbo4n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274240/original/file-20190514-60560-1xpbo4n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274240/original/file-20190514-60560-1xpbo4n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A negotiated path to delivering affordable housing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The difference between many international examples and Victoria is that these negotiations are voluntary. The argument is that voluntary negotiations avoid a one-size-fits-all solution and allows for flexibility and creativity in negotiations. </p>
<p>On the other hand, <a href="https://rsa.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02697459.2015.1008793#.XOd5qogzaUk">international research</a> suggests voluntary programs often generate uncertainty and inequitable outcomes. They tend to generate less affordable housing than mandated systems. And they do so in <a href="https://www.lincolninst.edu/sites/default/files/pubfiles/thaden_wp17et1_0.pdf">more opaque ways</a>.</p>
<p>Think about it: why would a developer voluntarily give up potential profit by selling or renting a property at a below-market rate? Such contributions would need to be enforced and/or incentivised.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/build-social-and-affordable-housing-to-get-us-off-the-boom-and-bust-roller-coaster-113113">Build social and affordable housing to get us off the boom-and-bust roller coaster</a>
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<h2>What can negotiation theory tell us?</h2>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0739456X07311074">Negotiation research</a> can help us to understand the likely outcomes of these arrangements. It offers insights into stakeholder interests, the potential for mutual gains, and access to knowledge. </p>
<p><strong>Stakeholder interests</strong></p>
<p>Interests are the underlying values and priorities that motivate stakeholders’ demands or positions in negotiations. Interests in this context relate to the degree to which state government, local councils, or developers feel it is their responsibility to provide affordable housing. It relates to views on “valid” profit margins for developers and concerns about reputation.</p>
<p>It also relates to the priorities and strategies of the community housing providers, who are most likely to own and manage the housing delivered through these negotiations. </p>
<p>We know most developers don’t feel it is their responsibility to deliver affordable housing. Similarly, while some councils have <a href="http://www.portphillip.vic.gov.au/councils-role-affordable-housing.htm">explicit statements on affordability</a>, this is not the case across Victoria. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235115/original/file-20180905-45143-1cnw8r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235115/original/file-20180905-45143-1cnw8r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235115/original/file-20180905-45143-1cnw8r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235115/original/file-20180905-45143-1cnw8r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235115/original/file-20180905-45143-1cnw8r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235115/original/file-20180905-45143-1cnw8r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235115/original/file-20180905-45143-1cnw8r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The City of Port Phillip is unusual in having an explicit position on the council’s role in providing affordable housing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">City of Port Phillip</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Mutual gains</strong></p>
<p>In places like San Francisco where affordable housing is required in all developments over a certain size, these requirements are built into feasibility calculations from the outset. Therefore, no incentives are included. </p>
<p>This also creates an even playing field for all developers in the consideration of land and development. As there is no negotiation or incentive that could shift the profit margin, the required approach places everyone on the same starting line. Further, the cost considerations are the same for all, when considering the purchase of a site and undertaking an analysis of the feasibility of a proposed project. </p>
<p>Voluntary negotiations only work when the parties at the negotiating table are interdependent – they must have something to gain and something to contribute in the negotiation or they wouldn’t be there. In places where negotiations are voluntary, incentives are often “bundled together” as sweeteners to offer to developers in the negotiation process. Possible incentives include car park waivers, increases in permissible developable area (i.e height or density bonuses) and fee reductions or waivers.</p>
<p>In Victoria, key incentives like allowing an increase in the floor area of a development – so-called <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/106253/How-to-calculate-Floor-Area-Uplifts-and-Public-Benefits_November-2016.pdf">floor area uplift</a> – are difficult to implement in most local government areas. And expedited planning approvals are politically contentious and have limited impact on developers. </p>
<p>Inconsistency between councils may also allow developers to “shop around”. They are likely to avoid local government areas with a reputation for pursuing contributions. </p>
<p>As negotiations take place across Victoria the capacity for mutual gains for local communities and developers will be a key component in deciding how much affordable housing is provided and at what cost. </p>
<p><strong>Access to knowledge</strong></p>
<p>In negotiations, money and knowledge is power. Stakeholders are likely to hide or manipulate information in negotiations to support their own arguments and interests. This is particularly likely when there is little established trust between parties. Not only does this lead to undemocratic decisions made in a “black box”, it also creates opportunity for exploitation. </p>
<p>Negotiations will centre on trade-offs to achieve economically feasible developments that also include affordable housing. To engage in such discussions, a high degree of knowledge about development economics is required to allow for informed debate. While this is the bread and butter for developers, local councils are often far less resourced to engage in these discussions. There is work to be done in building the capacity of local councils in this area. </p>
<p>Acknowledging this, the authors of this article have <a href="https://msd.unimelb.edu.au/research/projects/current/transforming-housing/affordable-housing-tools/affordable-housing-calculator">built a calculator </a> to help communicate many of the basic premises behind development economics and affordable housing trade-offs. </p>
<h2>Have your say on affordable housing</h2>
<p>We don’t know yet enough about interests, mutual gains or access to knowledge to fully understand the landscape of this change to Victorian housing policy. And that is why we are surveying the affordable housing industry to gather this feedback.</p>
<p>If you are a private developer, local or state government representative with involvement in residential development or affordable housing policy, a not-for-profit housing provider, or consultant to the housing industry, then we want to hear from you. </p>
<p>Please <a href="https://melbourneuni.au1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_br4iiTkcQ0CYCnr">click here</a> to take the survey.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katrina Raynor receives funding from the Transforming Housing Research Network, funded by the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation, Brotherhood of St Laurence and Launch Housing. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Georgia Warren-Myers receives funding from the Transforming Housing Research Network, funded by the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation, Brotherhood of St Laurence and Launch Housing. She is a Certified Practising Valuer under the Australian Property Institute. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Palm has previously received funding from the Transforming Housing Research Network at the University of Melbourne, funded by the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation, Brotherhood of St Laurence, and Launch Housing. He is currently supported by the XSeed program of the University of Toronto and the Department of Human Geography at the University of Toronto Scarborough. </span></em></p>People on the minimum wage can afford only 2% of private rentals and only 1% if on the pension. Affordable housing requirements are often mandatory overseas, but Victoria is relying on negotiation.Katrina Raynor, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Transforming Housing Project, The University of MelbourneGeorgia Warren-Myers, Associate Professor in Property, The University of MelbourneMatthew Palm, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1179112019-06-04T02:55:19Z2019-06-04T02:55:19ZWas there an ‘ethnic vote’ in the 2019 election and did it make a difference?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277550/original/file-20190603-69083-1sk8ebq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chinese-Australians have largely voted in line with the nation as a whole at the 2019 federal election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many factors appear to have contributed to the unexpected victory of the Coalition in the May 18 election. <a href="https://theconversation.com/foreign-born-voters-and-their-families-helped-elect-turnbull-in-2016-can-they-save-scomo-116588">Two factors were predictable</a> and had a devastating impact on the ALP vote where they were activated – <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-social-conservatism-among-ethnic-communities-drove-a-strong-no-vote-in-western-sydney-87509">ethno-religious prejudices around sexuality and gay culture</a>, and fears about perceived threats to economic stability in some ethnic communities.</p>
<p>This “ethnic” vote in the big cities stopped the ALP in its tracks in many Coalition electorates that were expected to swing to it, while pushing others firmly into government heartland. </p>
<h2>What is an ethnic vote?</h2>
<p>An “ethnic vote” exists not just where there are large numbers of people from particular cultural backgrounds, but where their ethnicity and cultural mores (and, where relevant, religious beliefs) shape and finally determine their views and therefore votes on particular issues in an election. </p>
<p>The conditions for such a situation can vary, though social media now play key roles. However, the “ethnics” have to be citizens, so simple birth country data can be misleading. For an example of how this is changing the landscape, in the period 2011 to 2016 <a href="https://www.multicultural.vic.gov.au/images/2016_Census/CommunityProfiles2016/India-Community-Profile-2016-Census.pdf">Victoria had an increase</a> in citizenship among Indian-born (70%), China-born (27%), Philippines-born (31%) and Iraq-born (35%) residents, while traditional groups accelerated their demise (Greeks -10%, Italians -12%).</p>
<p>Ethnic groups are not just people born outside Australia, but also their descendants. In 2016,<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3412.0Main%20Features32017-18?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3412.0&issue=2017-18&num=&view="> 509,000 Australian residents were Chinese-born</a> (including from the Chinese diaspora), while 705,000 claimed Chinese ancestry – about 200,000 were born in Australia. <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3412.0Media%20Release12017-18?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3412.0&issue=2017-18&num=&view=">In the two years after the 2016 Census, the India-born population rose 30%</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/foreign-born-voters-and-their-families-helped-elect-turnbull-in-2016-can-they-save-scomo-116588">Foreign-born voters and their families helped elect Turnbull in 2016. Can they save ScoMo?</a>
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<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-ethnic-vote-going-to-do-in-australias-top-ten-ethnic-marginal-seats-61202">safe-schools/same-sex-marriage problem became a major issue in 2016</a> for Chinese (often not of any faith), Muslim, <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/newscentre/news_centre/story_archive/2017/the_voice_of_god-_conference_examines_rise_of_pentecostalism_in_australia">Pasifika Pentacostalists</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Rite">Eastern rite</a> Christians, among other faith communities.</p>
<p>These issues generated a nexus that shepherded Malcolm Turnbull into a tight election win in 2016. Chisholm in Victoria (new Liberal MHR Gladys Liu masterminded the process there), Banks, Barton and Reid in Sydney were lined up as likely Labor wins. All except Barton went to the Coalition.</p>
<p>In 2019, these were “must wins” for Labor; the three from 2016 stayed with the Coalition, though this time going directly to the Liberals rather than through a religious proxy such as the Christian Democratic Party. In other very safe ALP seats the incumbents’ vote dropped significantly. </p>
<h2>Campaign of whispering hit home</h2>
<p>Across Western Sydney, seats with significant Chinese, South Asian, Pasifika, Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian populations heeded the whisperings about supposed Labor death taxes, or the supposedly likely Labor-induced collapse of the property market, while remembering how their Labor representatives had abandoned them in 2017 <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-social-conservatism-among-ethnic-communities-drove-a-strong-no-vote-in-western-sydney-87509">over gay marriage</a>.</p>
<p>This last issue was intensified by the Israel Folau conflict with the Australian Rugby Union over anti-gay/religious freedom posts. Inter-ethnic tensions were also triggered – <a href="https://www.2gb.com/100000-potential-new-migrants-under-labors-parent-visa-plan/">propaganda about a threat</a> of rapidly increasing <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/how-migrants-parents-became-an-election-issue/">elderly Muslim parents</a> swamping hospitals and services in the west if the ALP won were aimed at the supposed antipathies of Chinese- and Filipino-born voters towards Muslims and Arabs. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-social-conservatism-among-ethnic-communities-drove-a-strong-no-vote-in-western-sydney-87509">How social conservatism among ethnic communities drove a strong 'no' vote in western Sydney</a>
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<p>However, the “<a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6161268/labor-urged-to-include-people-of-faith/?cs=14231">Bowen thesis</a>”, that the ALP has lost faith communities, does not hold up. Bowen’s major problem in his McMahon seat was a huge vote for One Nation and the UAP (12% first preferences altogether), with the Christian Democratic Party halving its vote from 2016.</p>
<p>Rather, <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/labor-gives-migrant-parents-cheaper-visas">the Labor offer</a> to faith and ethnic communities (especially Muslims, Eastern rite Christians, Indians and Chinese) for expanded parental reunion opportunities may in fact have backfired along that Muslim/non-Muslim fault line, scaring both non-Muslim ethnic and non-ethnic voters towards the ultra-right. </p>
<h2>Banks – Morrison’s miracle machine at work</h2>
<p>Banks provides the most interesting case, with local member and Immigration Minister David Coleman’s close work with Chinese communities paying off for him. In 2013, Coleman <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/banks.htm">won the seat</a> from the ALP. In 2016, his first-preference vote declined from 47% to 44% as the Christian parties benefited from the social media campaign on same-sex issues (8.1%); he then picked up their preferences almost totally. In 2019, the Christian party vote declined and it went straight to Coleman, along with a chunk of the ALP vote, giving him a first-preference vote of 51% and another 5% on 2PP. </p>
<p>Our detailed analysis of Banks tracks Chinese and other voters through key booths in the electorate. In Banks, over 30,000 residents identify as having Chinese ancestry, similar to the adjacent Barton. In Barton, the ALP improved its vote (on the base of very much higher numbers of South Asian and Muslim residents). In Banks, the Liberal vote improved significantly, similar to the switch in Western Sydney seats against Labor.</p>
<p>The suburbs where more than a quarter of residents claim Chinese ancestry are: Hurstville (49.4%), Allawah (29.5%), Narwee (29.2%), South Hurstville (27.2%), Riverwood (27.2%) and Beverly Hills (26.5%).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-his-miracle-election-will-scott-morrison-feel-pressure-from-christian-leaders-on-religious-freedom-117798">After his 'miracle' election, will Scott Morrison feel pressure from Christian leaders on religious freedom?</a>
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<p>Residents of these suburbs tend to be more highly educated than in Banks overall. For example, 35% of Hurstville residents have a university degree, compared with 26% for Banks. However, their median household incomes are lower – for example, $1,382 per week for Hurstville compared to $1,598 for Banks. They are more likely to report having no religion – 43% for Hurstville, compared to 24% for Banks overall.</p>
<p>In Hurstville, three out of four polling booths recorded a majority vote for the Liberals for the first time. The Liberal Party had invested heavily in Hurstville, recruiting small armies of Chinese-speaking workers to greet voters at polling booths. Meanwhile, votes for Christian minor parties (Family First was the main vector in 2016, not running in 2019), fell by as much as 8% between 2016 and 2019. This was a bigger fall than in Banks overall. </p>
<p>In addition to Hurstville, the booths with the largest swing to the Liberals in 2019 were in Riverwood (two booths recorded a swing of more than 11%). Like Hurstville, median incomes in Riverwood are below average compared to the electorate as a whole. </p>
<p>In contrast, comparatively higher-income areas in this group, such as Allawah, Beverly Hills and South Hurstville, recorded much smaller swings towards the Liberals. One booth in Beverly Hills even had a swing away from the Liberal Party. </p>
<p>Across all of the 12 polling places in the Chinese-heavy suburbs listed above, average first preference votes were:</p>
<ul>
<li>Liberal 45.7% (up 7% since 2016)</li>
<li>ALP 41.1% (down 4%)</li>
<li>Greens 5.8% (down 0.4%)</li>
<li>Christian minor parties 3.3% (down 4.7%).</li>
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<p>These swings were largely in line with Banks overall, though there was a slightly greater swing away from the ALP (by 0.4%) and slightly smaller swing away from the Christian minor parties (by 0.6%).</p>
<p>Compared to Banks overall, Chinese-heavy booths in 2019 were 5% less likely to give their first preference to the Liberals, and 5% more likely to vote ALP, though this time the quantum support for Labor dropped significantly. This pattern has remained consistent across the last three federal elections. </p>
<p>In 2019, though, in the suburbs with substantial portions of Chinese-background voters, comparatively lower-income areas recorded the biggest swings to the Liberals, with the size of the swing declining as incomes rise.</p>
<p>Chinese-Australian voters are therefore largely in sync with patterns that have been observed nationally this election. This suggests that where there are many issues with salience for ethnic groups, the outcomes for specific groups will look like the overall situation; where there are specific issues, for instance those of particular concern to South Asian and Muslim communities, then the “ethnic vote” will become apparent. </p>
<p><em>This article has been corrected. An earlier version named Chris Bowen’s seat as Blaxland. His seat is in fact McMahon.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christina Ho is a member of the Greens. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Jakubowicz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While there has been talk of a “religious vote” or an “ethnic vote” holding sway at this election, particularly in Sydney’s western suburbs, new research does not bear that out.Andrew Jakubowicz, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, University of Technology SydneyChristina Ho, Senior Lecturer, Social & Political Sciences, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1180402019-06-03T03:26:26Z2019-06-03T03:26:26ZCoalition likely to have strong Senate position as their Senate vote jumps 3%<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277521/original/file-20190603-69055-p68ktv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The half-Senate election went well for the Coalition, giving them a strong position in the next sitting from July 1.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/senate">Coalition is likely to win</a> 19 of the 40 Senate seats up for grabs at the 2019 election. As they hold 16 of the 36 that are not up for election, they will probably have 35 of the 76 total seats (up four since the pre-election Senate). The new Senate sits from July 1. </p>
<p>Labor is likely to have 26 total seats (no net change), the Greens nine (steady), One Nation two (steady), the Centre Alliance two (steady). Cory Bernardi was not up for election, and Jacqui Lambie regained her Tasmanian seat following her disqualification on Section 44 grounds. While One Nation lost a WA seat, they probably regain Malcolm Roberts after his disqualification. </p>
<p>The likely losers were Fraser Anning, Derryn Hinch, the Liberal Democrats, Brian Burston (who had shifted from One Nation to United Australia Party), and Tim Storer, who did not contest his SA seat.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-and-greens-unlikely-to-win-a-senate-majority-on-current-polling-greens-jump-in-essential-poll-116414">Labor and Greens unlikely to win a Senate majority on current polling; Greens jump in Essential poll</a>
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<p>The Coalition plus One Nation and Bernardi is 38 seats for the right. To pass legislation opposed by Labor and the Greens, the Coalition’s best path will be these 38 votes, plus either Lambie or the Centre Alliance.</p>
<p>With six senators to be elected in each state, a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. With two to be elected in each territory, a quota is one-third of the vote, or 33.3%. Voters are instructed to number at least six boxes above the line, or at least 12 below, though only one above or six below is required for a formal vote. All preferences are voter-directed.</p>
<p>The Senate count is now at 84% of enrolled voters, while the House count is at 91%. The last few percent in the house count have been good for the Greens and bad for the Coalition, but this is unlikely to make a difference to the Senate seat outcomes. Senate results will be finalised by a computer preference distribution, probably by late next week.</p>
<p>Here is the table of likely Senate results for each state and territory. The Coalition was defending just two seats in each state except SA, where it was defending three seats.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277449/original/file-20190601-69055-1fhb3ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277449/original/file-20190601-69055-1fhb3ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277449/original/file-20190601-69055-1fhb3ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277449/original/file-20190601-69055-1fhb3ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277449/original/file-20190601-69055-1fhb3ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277449/original/file-20190601-69055-1fhb3ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277449/original/file-20190601-69055-1fhb3ps.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Likely Senate 2019 results.</span>
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<p>In NSW, the Coalition has 2.70 quotas, Labor 2.10, the Greens 0.60 and One Nation 0.34. Labor preferences should assist the Greens, with One Nation too far behind to catch either the Greens or Coalition. Both Labor and the Coalition gain at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and Burston.</p>
<p>In Victoria, the Coalition has 2.54 quotas, Labor 2.19, the Greens 0.73 and One Nation and Hinch Justice both on 0.19. The Coalition appears too far ahead of everyone else to be caught. The Coalition is likely to gain at the expense of Hinch.</p>
<p>In Queensland, the LNP has 2.75 quotas, Labor 1.59, One Nation (Roberts) 0.71 and the Greens 0.68. Whoever finishes last out of the final four after preferences misses out, and that is likely to be Labor. The LNP and One Nation are likely to gain at the expense of Labor and Anning.</p>
<p>In WA, the Liberals have 2.90 quotas, Labor 1.93, the Greens 0.82 and One Nation 0.39. The top three are too far ahead. The Liberals gain at the expense of One Nation.</p>
<p>In SA, the Liberals have 2.65 quotas, Labor 2.13, the Greens 0.75 and One Nation 0.33. The Liberals and Greens are too far ahead. Labor gains at the expense of Storer.</p>
<p>In Tasmania, the Liberals have 2.21 quotas, Labor 2.15, the Greens 0.88, Lambie 0.61 and One Nation 0.24. The Greens and Lambie are too far ahead. Lambie gains at Labor’s expense.</p>
<p>In the ACT, Labor has 1.18 quotas, the Liberals 0.97 and the Greens 0.52. The Liberals will win the second seat. There will be no change.</p>
<p>In the NT, Labor has 1.11 quotas and the Country Liberals 1.10. Preferences are not required for either seat. There will be no change.</p>
<p>The reason for the right’s three-seat lead over the left is Queensland, where six of the 12 senators are likely to be LNP, One Nation two, Labor just three and the Greens one. All other states are likely to split evenly between the right and left, except for Tasmania (6-5 to the left plus Lambie). SA is tied 5-5 with two Centre Alliance.</p>
<p>The table below shows the seats up for election at the next half-Senate election, due by early 2022. While state senators have six-year terms, territory senators are tied to the term of the House.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277448/original/file-20190601-69095-ma4htl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277448/original/file-20190601-69095-ma4htl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277448/original/file-20190601-69095-ma4htl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277448/original/file-20190601-69095-ma4htl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277448/original/file-20190601-69095-ma4htl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277448/original/file-20190601-69095-ma4htl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277448/original/file-20190601-69095-ma4htl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Senators up for election in 2022.</span>
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<p>The Coalition will be defending three seats in every state except SA, where they are defending just one seat. A bad Coalition performance would put their third seat in some states at risk. However, if the Coalition does as well as they did in 2019 in the mainland states, and wins a third Tasmanian seat, the Coalition and One Nation combined would have a Senate majority (39 of 76 seats). </p>
<p>The three senators most likely to lose at the next election are Bernardi and the two Centre Alliance senators, all in SA. At this election, Centre Alliance won just 2.6% or 0.18 quotas and Bernardi’s Conservatives had 1.5% or 0.10 quotas.</p>
<p>The Greens will be happy with their defence of the six senators they had up for election. A similar performance in 2022 would give the Greens 12 senators – the most they have had. But Labor needs to improve greatly to give the left a chance to gain the four senators they would need in 2022 to control the Senate.</p>
<h2>Coalition’s national Senate vote increased over 3%</h2>
<p>Senate <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm">vote shares</a> are currently 38.3% Coalition (up 3.1%), 28.9% Labor (down 0.9%), 10.1% Greens (up 1.5%), 5.4% One Nation (up 1.1%), 2.4% UAP, 1.8% Help End Marijuana Prohibition, 1.7% Shooters, 1.2% Animal Justice and 1.1% Liberal Democrats. Vote <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">shares in the House</a> are 41.5% Coalition (down 0.5%), 33.3% Labor (down 1.4%), 10.3% Greens (up 0.1%), 3.4% UAP and 3.1% One Nation (up 1.8%). One Nation contested 59 of the 151 House seats.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-palmers-party-has-good-support-in-newspoll-seat-polls-but-is-it-realistic-115802">Poll wrap: Palmer's party has good support in Newspoll seat polls, but is it realistic?</a>
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<p>One reason for the increase in the Coalition’s Senate vote is a favourable <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefs-24310-NSW.htm">ballot paper draw</a>. In all states and territories, the Coalition was placed to the left of the Liberal Democrats, so they were not hurt by name confusion. In <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-NSW.htm">2016</a>, the Coalition was to the right of the Liberal Democrats in NSW, Queensland and the ACT.</p>
<p>By state, the Coalition’s vote was up 2.8% in NSW, 3.2% in Victoria, 4.2% in Queensland, 1.7% in WA, 5.3% in SA (helped by the collapse of Centre Alliance since 2016) and up 0.2% in Tasmania. The Coalition’s gain in Victoria could be due to a 3.3% drop for Hinch Justice and a 9.7% drop for Senate groups that stood in 2016, but not 2019.</p>
<p>Another explanation for the Coalition’s vote jump in the Senate is that those with a lower level of educational attainment disliked both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in 2016, and were thus likely to vote for other right-wing parties. In 2019, these people liked Scott Morrison. There are many parties to choose from in the Senate, so the Coalition’s higher vote should be seen as an endorsement of Morrison.</p>
<p>In the House, the Coalition’s vote is down 0.5% from 2016. Far fewer right-wing parties stood for the House in 2016 than in 2019, so voters’ choices were more limited in 2016. If the same sorts of candidates had stood in the same seats at both elections, the Coalition’s primary vote would probably have increased in the House too.</p>
<h2>Turnout for House increases on 2016</h2>
<p>Contrary to this article in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/voter-turnout-at-record-low-after-young-people-disengage-20190530-p51sol.html">Nine newspapers</a> that suggested turnout had fallen to its lowest level since compulsory voting was introduced, <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTurnoutByState-24310.htm">official turnout</a> for the May 18 election is currently 91.07%, up 0.06% from 2016. There are many <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDecScrutinyProgressByDivision-24310.htm">votes outstanding</a>, so turnout will increase further.</p>
<p>As the electoral roll is more complete than it has ever been, this increase in turnout is more impressive than it seems.</p>
<p>It is likely that Labor will hold <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-133.htm">Macquarie</a>, the last seat in any doubt. That will give the Coalition 77 of the 151 seats, Labor 68 and six crossbenchers.</p>
<p>The national <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-24310.htm">two party count</a> is currently at 51.63-48.37 to the Coalition; the Coalition’s peak was 51.77% on May 30. There are 15 “non-classic” seats that are excluded from this count – ten are likely to favour the Coalition and five Labor. The current two party count therefore understates the Coalition.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/newspoll-probably-wrong-since-morrison-became-pm-polling-has-been-less-accurate-at-recent-elections-117400">Newspoll probably wrong since Morrison became PM; polling has been less accurate at recent elections</a>
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<h2>Conservatives and Labour smashed at UK’s European elections</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/27/uk-countries-european-union-election-results/">The Poll Bludger</a> that at the UK’s European Union elections held on May 23, the Brexit party won 32% of the vote and 29 of 73 seats, the Liberal Democrats 20% and 16 seats, Labour just 14% and ten seats, the Greens 12% and seven seats, and the Conservatives 9% and four seats.</p>
<p>Theresa May will resign as Conservative leader on June 7, and the next PM is likely to be a hard Brexiteer.</p>
<p>In the European Union overall, the Liberals and the Greens performed well.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118040/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After strong results in the 2019 election, the Coalition is likely to have 35 of the 76 seats when the Senate next sits.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1179092019-05-28T19:50:07Z2019-05-28T19:50:07ZInfographic: who’s who in the new Morrison ministry<p>As Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s ministry is sworn in today, we’re taking a closer look at the members of the newly revamped cabinet. </p>
<p>Some of the faces are new – Stuart Robert, for example, takes over the new portfolio overseeing the National Disability Insurance Scheme. And some of the portfolios have shifted, notably Sussan Ley replacing Melissa Price as environment minister.</p>
<p>We’ve asked our experts to appraise the performances of the ministers and highlight what could be the key challenges in their new roles.</p>
<p>In some cases, ministers hold more than one portfolio. To simplify the policy analysis, we’ve chosen a key policy area for which they’re responsible and asked our experts to analyse those.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-409" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/409/3e383b8155fd6a829f391e02280e6276c27d4b57/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117909/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Scott Morrison’s new ministry includes a few new faces and several new roles for familiar cabinet members. Our experts take a closer look at each portfolio.Emil Jeyaratnam, Data + Interactives Editor, The ConversationShelley Hepworth, Section Editor: Technology, The ConversationJustin Bergman, International Affairs EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1177422019-05-26T19:33:29Z2019-05-26T19:33:29ZHow might Labor win in 2022? The answers can all be found in the lessons of 2019<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276466/original/file-20190526-187176-h7kg54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If Anthony Albanese wants to lead Labor to victory in 2022, he'll need to grasp the full suite of lessons from 2019's shock loss.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The high tide of analysis concerning the Australian Labor Party’s shock 2019 federal election loss has been reached. It looks like so much flotsam and jetsam with the odd big log – leadership popularity, Queensland – prominent among the debris. Sorting through it, making sense of it, and weighting the factors driving the result really matters. It matters because decisions influencing the outcome of the next federal election will flow from it. </p>
<p>The learner’s error is to grasp onto a couple of factors without considering the full suite, weighting them and seeing the connections between them. What does the full suite look like?</p>
<p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>Leadership popularity</strong></p>
<p>Labor’s Bill Shorten was <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-election-loss-was-not-a-surprise-if-you-take-historical-trends-into-account-117399">an unpopular leader</a>, neither liked nor trusted by voters. The shift from Shorten in private to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/what-i-learned-about-bill-shorten-while-documenting-his-rise-and-fall-20190524-p51qts.html">Shorten in leadership mode in the media</a> was comparable to the shift in Julia Gillard when she moved from the deputy prime ministership to prime minister: the charm and wit went missing, replaced by woodenness and lack of relatability.</p>
<p>Shorten accepted advice to appear “leader-like”, creating a barrier Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who sought to directly connect with voters, was not hampered by. “It is often said of democratic politics,” historian David Runciman has said, “that the question voters ask of any leader is: ‘Do I like this person?’ But it seems more likely that the question at the back of their minds is: ‘Would this person like me?’” Morrison passed and Shorten flunked that test.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-2019-election-was-more-like-2004-than-1993-and-labor-has-some-reason-to-hope-117394">Why the 2019 election was more like 2004 than 1993 – and Labor has some reason to hope</a>
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<p>Shorten generally failed the “theatre of politics”. His suits often looked too big, making him look small. Television footage of him jogging in oversized athletic clothes during the campaign made him look small. Poor production of Shorten in these ways diminished perceptions of him as an alternative prime minister – a professionalism fail that could have easily been fixed but was not.</p>
<p>Lesson: Leadership unpopularity costs votes. Successful “theatre of politics” matters.</p>
<p><strong>2.</strong> <strong>Supporting players’ unpopularity</strong></p>
<p>Shorten was weighed down by frontbenchers in the key economic and environment portfolios who fell well short in the performativity stakes too. The camera is not kind to shadow treasurer Chris Bowen. While he developed serious policy chops, partly through sustained study of Paul Keating’s history as a reforming treasurer of historic stature, he also picked up Keating’s hauteur, but without actually being Keating and able to pull it off. </p>
<p>The arrogance of Bowen’s <a href="https://www.chrisbowen.net/media-releases/abc-radio-melbourne-with-jon-faine-tuesday-29-january-2019/">franking credits policy comment</a> that “if people very strongly feel that they don’t want this to happen they are perfectly entitled to vote against us” was a defining misstep of the Shorten opposition. It made the leader’s job that much harder.</p>
<p>Shadow environment minister Mark Butler is another to whom the camera is unkind. He embodied the soft, urban environmentalist persona that is poison in those parts of Australia where Labor needed to pick up seats. An equally knowledgeable but more knockabout environment spokesperson – Tony Burke, for example – would have been the cannier choice in a “climate election” where regional voters had to be persuaded to Labor’s greener policy agenda.</p>
<p>Lesson: Appoint frontbenchers capable of winning public support in their portfolios.</p>
<p><strong>3.</strong> <strong>Misleading polls</strong>
The maths wasn’t wrong but the models on which the two-party-preferred vote is calculated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/20/mathematics-does-not-lie-why-polling-got-the-australian-election-wrong?CMP=share_btn_tw">have been blown up</a> by this election, an event foreshadowed by recent polling miscalls in Britain.</p>
<p>Long-time conservative political consultant Lynton Crosby’s presence in the Coalition campaign has been invisible except for the tiny but crucial, and completely overlooked, detail that the Liberals’ polling “<a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6148478/very-tight-very-deliberate-internal-liberal-polling-showed-coalition-was-on-track-to-win/?cs=14230">was conducted by Michael Brooks,</a> a London-based pollster with Crosby Textor who was brought out from the United Kingdom for the campaign”.</p>
<p>The Coalition had better polling. Labor and everyone else were relying on faulty polling that misallocated preferences and uniformly predicted a Labor win – false comfort to Labor, which stayed a flawed course instead of making necessary changes to avoid defeat.</p>
<p>Lesson: Focus on the primary vote, the polling figure least vulnerable to modelling assumptions.</p>
<p><strong>4.</strong> <strong>Media hostile to Labor</strong></p>
<p>The Murdoch media <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/14/andrew-bolt-sky-news-labor/">have created an atmospheric</a> so pervasively hostile to Labor that it has become normalised. It <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/unrelentingly-partisan-did-the-murdoch-press-sway-the-election-20190522-p51q0s.html">contributed significantly</a> to Shorten’s unpopularity and Labor’s loss. Its impact is only going to get worse with Australia’s nakedly partisan Fox News-equivalent, “Sky After Dark”, extending from pay-TV to free-to-air channels in regional areas.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/outrage-polls-and-bias-2019-federal-election-showed-australian-media-need-better-regulation-117401">Outrage, polls and bias: 2019 federal election showed Australian media need better regulation</a>
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<p>Lesson: Labor has to be so much better than the Coalition to win in this dire and deteriorating media environment. It needs a concrete plan to match and/or neutralise the Murdoch media’s influence.</p>
<p><strong>5.</strong> <strong>Regional variations</strong></p>
<p>Labor failed to win support in resource-rich states where it needed to pick up seats to win, and suffered <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/may/25/the-big-swing-to-george-christensen-should-be-where-the-lesson-for-the-election-is?CMP=share_btn_tw">a big fall in its primary vote in Queensland</a>.</p>
<p>There is a danger of this being overplayed as a factor since, in fact, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-25/federal-election-morrison-shorten-history/11144516">not much really changed at this election: the Coalition has two more seats and Labor two less seats than in the last parliament</a>. Further, there are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/may/23/its-easy-to-dismiss-queenslanders-as-coal-addicted-bogans-but-its-more-complex-than-that">nuances to be engaged with even in hard-core resource areas</a>. More Queenslanders, for example, are employed in the services sector in industries like tourism than are employed in the coal sector; and <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">Labor has a strong tradition in Queensland</a> and is capable of renewal.</p>
<p>The concerns of both sides need to be woven into a plausible policy path forward, with opportunities for different, deeply-held views to be heard and acknowledged as part of the process.</p>
<p>Lesson: Develop “ground up” rather than “top down” policies that integrate diverse concerns without overreacting to what was actually a modest change in electoral fortunes.</p>
<p><strong>6.</strong> <strong>Weak advertising strategy</strong></p>
<p>Labor’s advertising campaign was <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6161508/dead-as-a-dodo-labor-party-boss-urged-to-go-before-knives-are-sharpened/?cs=14230">complacent, unfocused and completely failed to exploit the leadership chaos and chronic division in the Coalition parties for the previous six years</a>. Why? Labor’s decision not to run potent negative ads on coalition chaos in parallel with its positive advertising campaign is the biggest mystery of the 2019 election - naive in the extreme. It left Labor defenceless in the face of a relentlessly negative, untruthful campaign from the other side.</p>
<p>Lesson: Have brilliant ads in a sharply focused campaign that doesn’t fail to hit your opponents’ weaknesses.</p>
<p><strong>7.</strong> <strong>Massive advertising spending gap</strong></p>
<p>Along with the hostile media environment created by the Murdoch press, the unprecedented spending gap between the Labor and anti-Labor sides of politics and its role in the Coalition win has passed largely unremarked.</p>
<p>The previous election was bought by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull with a $1.7 million personal donation that boosted Coalition election advertising in the campaign’s crucial last fortnight. That now looks like small beer next to the 2019 election’s anti-Labor advertising spending (approximately $80 million when one adds the Coalition’s $20 million spend to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/22/clive-palmer-says-he-decided-to-polarise-electorate-with-anti-labor-ads-to-ensure-coalition-win">Clive Palmer-United Australia Party spend of $60 million-plus</a>). This is four times the size of Labor’s $20 million ad budget – a huge disparity.</p>
<p>Palmer’s gambit, which creates a friendly environment for him to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-26/clive-palmer-seeks-approval-for-monster-mine-near-adani/9698680?pfmredir=sm">gain regulatory approval for a Queensland coal mine vastly bigger than Adani’s</a> during this term of parliament, takes Australia into banana republic territory in terms of money politics.</p>
<p>Lesson: Australia already needed campaign finance laws to stop the purchasing of elections. It needs them even more urgently now.</p>
<p><strong>8.</strong> <strong>Large policy target</strong></p>
<p>Misleading polling showing it was persistently ahead gave Labor false comfort pursuing a “big” policy agenda – that is, making policy offerings normally done from government rather than opposition. If everything else goes right in an election, and with a popular leader and effective key supporting frontbenchers, this may be possible. That was not the case in the 2019 election.</p>
<p>Lesson: When in opposition, don’t go to an election promising tax changes that make some people worse off. Save it for government.</p>
<p><strong>9.</strong> <strong>Green cannibalisation of the Labor vote</strong></p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">primary vote</a> of the Labor Party (33.5%) and the Greens (9.9%) adds up to 43.4% – a long way off the 50%-plus required to beat the conservatives. For a climate-action-oriented government to be elected in Australia, Labor and the Greens are going to have to find a better modus vivendi. </p>
<p>They don’t have to like each other; after all, the mutual hatred of the Liberals and Nationals within the Coalition is long-standing and well-known. But like the Liberals and Nationals, though without a formal agreement, Labor and the Greens are going to have to craft a way forward that forestalls indulgent bus tours by Green icons through Queensland coal seats and stops <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6180684/andrew-leigh-blasts-greens-over-campaign-strategy/">prioritising cannibalisation of the Labor vote</a> over beating conservatives.</p>
<p>Lesson: For climate policy to change in Australia, Labor and the Greens need to strategise constructively, if informally, to get Labor elected to office.</p>
<p><strong>10.</strong> <strong>Every election is winnable</strong></p>
<p>Paul Keating won an “unwinnable” election in 1993 and pundits spoke of the Keating decade ahead. John Howard beat Keating in a landslide three years later, despite being the third Coalition leader in a single tumultuous parliamentary term. </p>
<p>Morrison won the 2019 election despite internal Coalition leadership turmoil, political scandals and a revolt of the party’s women MPs against the Liberals’ bullying internal culture. </p>
<p>Lesson: Every election is there to be won or lost. Take note of Lessons 1 to 9 to do so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Wallace receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>As Labor goes through the painful process of examining what went wrong at this year’s election and how it might win the next, there are 10 key lessons to be learnt.Chris Wallace, ARC DECRA Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1177682019-05-24T12:45:55Z2019-05-24T12:45:55ZFrydenberg declares tax package must be passed ‘in its entirety’<p>The government’s tax relief package is shaping up as the first test of incoming opposition leader Anthony Albanese, with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg declaring on Friday it must be supported “in its entirety” when put to the new parliament.</p>
<p>But Albanese has only guaranteed support for the first tranche. As for the later cuts for higher income earners, “we will consider that,” he said on Friday.</p>
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<p>But let me tell you, it is a triumph of hope over experience and reality that the government knows […] what the economic circumstances are in 2025 or 2023, in the middle of the next decade.</p>
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<p>Appearing with Albanese on the Nine Network, Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said:</p>
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<p>Albo, it would be remarkable if your first act as leader of the opposition was […] to oppose a long term package of tax relief - that would show a real tin ear for the Australian people".</p>
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<p>In an interview with The Conversation, Frydenberg refused to be drawn on what the government would do if unable to get the whole bill through.</p>
<p>It would, however, be hard for it to avoid splitting the bill - to hold out would deny the immediate relief pledged in the April budget.</p>
<h2>All or nothing</h2>
<p>Nor could Frydenberg say when parliament will meet to consider the legislation, although the government has effectively conceded it will not be in time for the promised July 1 start of the additional tax offset promised in the budget. (A smaller offset from last year’s budget will be paid from then.)</p>
<p>But Albanese said the tax cuts could be passed in time for July 1, because it would only need a couple of hours of sitting. “We’ll do a deal. I can do that. One speaker a side, and Bob’s your uncle.”</p>
<p>Frydenberg said Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe had highlighted the positive impact the tax cuts would have on household incomes.</p>
<p>“Let’s too not forget that $7.5 billion will flow to households in the coming financial year, as a result of these tax cuts,” Frydenberg said.</p>
<h2>Tax cuts as good as rate cuts</h2>
<p>“This benefit to households and the economy is equivalent to two 25 basis point interest rate cuts and is one reason why growth and household consumption is projected to pick up,” he said.</p>
<p>“The tax reforms we are putting to parliament are not just providing immediate relief, but leading to long term structural change. This will tackle bracket creep and reward aspiration.</p>
<p>"Earning more is nothing to be ashamed of and should be encouraged not punished. Rewarding aspiration is in the Coalition’s DNA and will be a fundamental driver of our policies in government.”</p>
<p>In his assessment of the economic outlook, Frydenberg had two messages.</p>
<p>He said in his discussions with some of Australia’s biggest employers, “I’ve been buoyed by their confidence and their desire to work with the government, to support continued economic growth and job creation”.</p>
<h2>Headwinds worsening</h2>
<p>But the economy “faces significant headwinds. Trade tensions between the United States and China have increased, with the potential to negatively impact global growth.</p>
<p>"Were there to be another round of US tariff increases, the potential for which has been flagged publicly, the proportion of global trade covered by recent trade actions would double from 2% to 4%.”</p>
<p>Also, flood, drought and fires had taken a toll and the housing market slowdown was hitting dwelling investment and having an impact on consumption.</p>
<p>The challenges made the government’s agenda for growth, including tax relief, so important and time critical.</p>
<p>Asked whether the “headwinds” faced by the Australian economy were stronger than at budget time, when he also spoke of headwinds, Frydenberg said: “I think the tensions between China and the US have increased”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/their-biggest-challenge-avoiding-a-recession-117381">Their biggest challenge? Avoiding a recession</a>
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<p>Frydenberg spoke with the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin this week and the two will meet in Japan at the G20 finance ministers meeting in a few weeks. Frydenberg stressed in the conversation the importance of free trade to Australia and its wish to see disputes resolved as amicably as possible.</p>
<p>Asked whether, if the economy deteriorated further, the government would be willing to live with a smaller surplus next financial year than the $7.1 billion projected in the budget, Frydenberg said, “that’s the amount that we’re committed to”.</p>
<p>He would not be drawn on the signal this week from Lowe that an interest rate cut was coming.</p>
<p>The Treasurer said the current unemployment rate of 5.2% reflected “strong labour market performance”.</p>
<p>While there are no plans for an overhaul of federal-state relations by the re-elected government, Frydenberg said he would work closely with the states on infrastructure and managing population.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-interest-rates-is-just-the-start-its-about-to-become-much-much-easier-to-borrow-117500">Cutting interest rates is just the start. It's about to become much, much easier to borrow</a>
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<p>He said he would respond fully to the Productivity Commission report on superannuation, although he had not set a date for this.</p>
<p>“The issues that were raised through the Productivity Commission report which we need to have a good look at are about the unintended multiple accounts and the under-performing funds,” he said.</p>
<p>“The royal commission [on banking] recommended having a single default [account], which we accepted and Labor accepted, so we’ll go ahead and do that”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-shocked-labor-moves-on-but-to-what-policy-destination-117698">Grattan on Friday: Shocked Labor moves on – but to what policy destination?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117768/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In an interview with The Conversation, Frydenberg refused to be drawn on what the government would do if unable to get the whole bill through.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1177462019-05-24T04:15:18Z2019-05-24T04:15:18ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Morrison’s ‘miracle’ election win - and Labor’s leadership search<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor Geoff Crisp speaks with Michelle Grattan about the week in politics. They discuss the Coalition’s shock victory and the contradicting polls and predictions; Bill Shorten standing down as leader of the Labor party and his likely successor Anthony Albanese; and Scott Morrison’s trouble over delivering his policy of immediate tax cuts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117746/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Geoff Crisp speaks with Michelle Grattan about the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1174062019-05-24T02:30:50Z2019-05-24T02:30:50ZAs the dust of the election settles, Australia’s wildlife still needs a pathway for recovery<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276092/original/file-20190523-187157-lwgrwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Darling River near Louth NSW, April 2019, in the midst of a drought compounded by upstream irrigation policies.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jaana Dielenberg</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The environment was a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-08/australians-think-climate-change-bigger-threat-than-terrorism/11091276">key</a> <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-10-things-that-worry-voters-most-and-how-that-s-changed-since-the-last-election-20190418-p51ffy.html">concern</a> in the recent federal election. It was also a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-20/what-happened-to-the-climate-change-vote/11128128">polarising one</a>, with concerns raised about regional industries and livelihoods. But jobs and environment need not be locked in battle: there are pathways that secure a better future for both our environment and future generations.</p>
<p>It’s just over two weeks since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/revolutionary-change-needed-to-stop-unprecedented-global-extinction-crisis-116166">global announcement</a> that extinction looms for about a million species. The warning may have been partially lost in the noise of Australia’s election campaign, but it should resonate long after the political dust settles. This scale of loss will have catastrophic consequences not only for nature, but for us too.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/revolutionary-change-needed-to-stop-unprecedented-global-extinction-crisis-116166">'Revolutionary change' needed to stop unprecedented global extinction crisis</a>
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<p>The good news is many of the key steps to addressing Australia’s ecological challenges are also wins for jobs, industry and social well-being. Others involve more difficult choices, but could be helped with careful strategic planning and the active involvement of all those with a stake. All require factoring in costs and benefits not only to our generation, but also to generations of the future.</p>
<p>Here are seven suggestions to get us started.</p>
<p><strong>1. Support wildlife-friendly agriculture</strong></p>
<p>More than 60% of Australia is <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard_Price4/publication/230817486_Impacts_of_red_meat_production_on_biodiversity_in_Australia_A_review_and_comparison_with_alternative_protein_production_industries/links/5449dc3f0cf2f6388084d5f2/Impacts-of-red-meat-production-on-biodiversity-in-Australia-A-review-and-comparison-with-alternative-protein-production-industries.pdf">managed for agricultural production</a>. Agriculture is a major driver of species loss both <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard_Price4/publication/230817486_Impacts_of_red_meat_production_on_biodiversity_in_Australia_A_review_and_comparison_with_alternative_protein_production_industries/links/5449dc3f0cf2f6388084d5f2/Impacts-of-red-meat-production-on-biodiversity-in-Australia-A-review-and-comparison-with-alternative-protein-production-industries.pdf">at home</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/biodiversity-the-ravages-of-guns-nets-and-bulldozers-1.20381">abroad</a>. Yet we know it is possible to <a href="https://www-publish-csiro-au.virtual.anu.edu.au/book/7844/">manage our agricultural landscapes</a> for wildlife and productivity. Actions like restoring native vegetation, establishing shelterbelts, and creating wildlife-friendly farm dams can help maintain or even boost farms’ productivity and resilience, including in times of drought. </p>
<p>Many farmers are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-18/farmers-use-regenerative-agriculture-to-fuel-biodiversity/11111066">already doing this</a> but their efforts are <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-land-clearing-is-undermining-australias-environmental-progress-54882">undermined by policy instability</a>. Political leadership and incentives such as stewardship payments and direct carbon investments are needed to support farmers as they increasingly support the nature from which we all benefit.</p>
<p><strong>2. Nature-based solutions for our cities</strong></p>
<p>About 90% of Australians <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTANNREP2013/Resources/9304887-1377201212378/9305896-1377544753431/1_AnnualReport2013_EN.pdf">live in cities</a>, and the rapid expansion of our urban areas brings serious livability challenges. Urban nature <a href="https://theconversation.com/higher-density-cities-need-greening-to-stay-healthy-and-liveable-75840https:/theconversation.com/higher-density-cities-need-greening-to-stay-healthy-and-liveable-75840">can be a key part of the solution</a>, providing a remarkable range of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-walk-in-the-woods-really-does-help-your-body-and-your-soul-53227">health and well-being benefits</a>.</p>
<p>Urban greenery <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-planners-understand-its-cool-to-green-cities-whats-stopping-them-55753">keeps cities cooler</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-and-cool-roofs-provide-relief-for-hot-cities-but-should-be-sited-carefully-60766">improves air quality</a>, and even <a href="https://treenet.org/resources/urban-trees-worth-more-than-they-cost/">boosts economic prosperity</a>. </p>
<p>Cities can be <a href="https://www.conservationmagazine.org/2016/01/threatened-species-live-in-every-australian-city/">hotspots for threatened species</a>, and are justifiable locations for investing in nature for its own sake. There is substantial opportunity to create policy and regulation that can allow investment and <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-to-design-cities-where-people-and-nature-can-both-flourish-102849">innovation in nature-based solutions in cities</a>.</p>
<p><strong>3. Help Indigenous Australians care for natural heritage</strong></p>
<p>Indigenous people prospered for millennia in Australia by forging deep connections with land, water and sky. But these connections are ever harder to maintain in the face of two centuries of colonialism and disruption to traditional lore and custom. </p>
<p>Traditional ownership is now recognised for <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0173876">nearly half of Australia’s protected area estate</a>. Increasing investment in Indigenous ranger programs from the current <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-rangers-dont-receive-the-funding-they-deserve-heres-why-115916">6% of the conservation estate budget</a> and incorporating traditional knowledge could deliver many social, environmental and economic benefits. </p>
<p>Long-term stability with these programs provides for <a href="https://www.humanrights.gov.au/our-work/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-social-justice/projects/close-gap-indigenous-health">healthy communities</a>, maintains connection to country, and delivers enormous environmental benefits.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276241/original/file-20190523-187189-8jtij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276241/original/file-20190523-187189-8jtij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276241/original/file-20190523-187189-8jtij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276241/original/file-20190523-187189-8jtij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276241/original/file-20190523-187189-8jtij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276241/original/file-20190523-187189-8jtij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276241/original/file-20190523-187189-8jtij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Foreshore revegetation is one process that can help species recover.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p><strong>4. Invest in species recovery</strong></p>
<p>Many valiant efforts to help threatened species are undertaken by dedicated groups with often limited resources. They have shown that <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/book/7705/">success is possible</a>. But to prevent extinctions we need much greater investment in strategic and committed management of species, and of pervasive threats like changed fire regimes and changed water flows. Australia’s investment in biodiversity conservation is <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/110/29/12144">low</a> compared with other countries, particularly in light of our high rates of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/112/15/4531">species loss</a>. </p>
<p>Investing in <a href="https://www.esasuccess.org/2016/index.html">threatened species</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24295?draft=journal&proof=trueIn">conservation</a> works. Involving the community in recovery actions can also create employment, skills and many other benefits, especially to rural and Indigenous communities.</p>
<p><strong>5. Build strategically important safe havens and strengthen biosecurity</strong></p>
<p>Much of Australia’s wildlife is threatened by introduced species – predators, herbivores, weeds and disease. Chytrid fungus, introduced through the pet trade, has <a href="https://theconversation.com/deadly-frog-fungus-has-wiped-out-90-species-and-threatens-hundreds-more-113846">devastated frog populations</a>. New pathogens like myrtle rust, which affects many Australian plants, look <a href="http://www.apbsf.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Myrtle-rust-action-plan_accessible.pdf">set to repeat</a> this scale of loss. Invasive predators such as cats and foxes are the single biggest threat to most of Australia’s threatened mammals, some of which <a href="http://www.nespthreatenedspecies.edu.au/publications-tools/protecting-australian-mammals-from-introduced-cats-and-foxes-the-current-status-and-future-growth-of">survive only on islands and inside fenced areas</a>. </p>
<p>Strong biosecurity, of the kind that has long helped Australian agriculture, is vital to prevent introductions of new invasive species. New havens are needed in <a href="http://www.nespthreatenedspecies.edu.au/publications-tools/protecting-australian-mammals-from-introduced-cats-and-foxes-the-current-status-and-future-growth-of">strategic locations</a>, underpinned by national coordination and partnerships, to help protect species like the central rock rat that are still not safe from predators.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275568/original/file-20190521-23817-e0xn7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275568/original/file-20190521-23817-e0xn7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275568/original/file-20190521-23817-e0xn7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275568/original/file-20190521-23817-e0xn7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275568/original/file-20190521-23817-e0xn7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275568/original/file-20190521-23817-e0xn7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275568/original/file-20190521-23817-e0xn7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Invasive species harm Australia’s native wildlife.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/red-fox-vulpes-victoria-great-ocean-167504885?src=xDavVKa2ssDl89F6Z9NuTg-1-1">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p><strong>6. Support integrated environmental assessments</strong></p>
<p>Regional development, mining and urban expansion are part of our economy. They can also harm species and ecosystems. </p>
<p>Improving resourcing for decisions about environmental approvals can ensure they are underpinned by sound science. Independent <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/Faunalextinction/Interim%20report/c04">oversight and review</a> could help ensure environmental approvals are credible, transparent, and consistent with Australia’s conservation commitments. Strengthening and expanding protections for critical habitat could ensure our most vulnerable wildlife is protected.</p>
<p>Development can be designed to avoid wholesale devastation or “<a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/resource/australian-environment-act-report-independent-review-environment-protection-and">death by 1,000 cuts</a>”. But ensuring that crucial species habitats are protected will require careful planning based on strong environmental and social science. Applying existing provisions for integrated environmental assessments, fully resourcing these processes, and ensuring all affected people – including local and Indigenous communities – are involved from the start, can help plan a future that works for industries, communities and natural and cultural heritage.</p>
<p><strong>7. Minimise and adapt to climate change, including by investing in biodiversity</strong></p>
<p>Climate change threatens our communities, economy, health, and wildlife – it is changing our country as we know it. It has already contributed to the extinction of species such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/another-australian-animal-slips-away-to-extinction-36203">Bramble Cay Melomys</a>. Impacts will certainly worsen, but by how much depends on whether we take strong action. </p>
<p>Many communities, businesses and governments are aiming to tackle climate change. Strategies such as greening cities to reduce heat islands can help native species too. Investing in biodiversity-rich carbon storage (such as old growth forests) can boost regional economies. Options include restoring native ecosystems, boosting soil carbon, managing fire, and transitioning native forests from timber harvesting to being <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1890/ES14-00051.1">managed for carbon</a>, while sourcing wood products from plantations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/government-needs-to-front-up-billions-not-millions-to-save-australias-threatened-species-74250">Government needs to front up billions, not millions, to save Australia's threatened species</a>
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<p>Our economy, communities, cultures, health and livelihoods depend on environmental infrastructure – clean water, clean air, good soils, native vegetation and animals. As with Indigenous sense of place and identities they are entangled with the creatures that share our unique and diverse continent. We steal from future generations every time a species is lost.</p>
<p>For our sake and that of our descendants, we cannot afford to disregard this essential connection. Investing in natural infrastructure, just as we invest in our built infrastructure, is the sort of <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/">transformational change</a> needed to ensure our communities and economy continue to flourish.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117406/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Morgain receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recovery Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bradley J. Moggridge receives funding from the Murray Darling Basin Authority and the National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recovery Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Wintle has received research funding through a variety of research fundings agreements from The Australian Research Council (ARC), the Victorian, NSW, Queensland, Australian and multiple local Governments, Bush Heritage Australia, The Nature Conservancy, the Helmholtz Institute and the Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Research Council, The Australian Government, and the Government of Victoria</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Woinarski receives research funding from the National Environmental Science Program's Threatened Species Recovery Hub</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martine Maron receives funding from a range of sources including the Australian Research Council, the National Environmental Science Program's Threatened Species Recovery Hub, the Science for Nature and People Partnership, and The New South Wales Environment Trust. She provides advice to several State and Federal government environment agencies as well as WWF-Australia, is a Director of BirdLife Australia, and is a member of the Ecological Society of Austrralia's Academic Freedom Working Group, the Alliance of Leading Environmental Researchers and Thinkers, and two threatened species recovery teams.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Bekessy receives funding from The National Environment Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub and the Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub, the Australian Research Council Linkage Program (LP160100324) and the H2020 project Urban Greenup. She is a Board member of Bush Heritage Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Legge receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program's Threatened Species Recovery Hub and Rangelands NRM. She is a Board member of the Wandiyali Restoration Trust and provides advice to a range of government and non-government organisations (Bush Heritage Australia, Wild Deserts, Yawuru IPA, Biosecurity Qld, Academy of Science's NCEEC, Birdlife TSC, IUCN MMSC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Garnett receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program's Threatened Species Recovery Hub and BirdLife Australia. He provides advice to a range of government and non-government organisations (Australian Wildlife Conservancy, Birdlife Australia, BirdLife International, Convention on Migratory Species).</span></em></p>In the event, the federal election turned out to be more about the economy than the environment. But there are steps the Coalition government can take to help conservation and boost the economy too.Rachel Morgain, Knowledge Broker, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityBradley J. Moggridge, Indigenous Water Research, University of CanberraBrendan Wintle, Professor Conservation Ecology, The University of MelbourneDavid Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityJohn Woinarski, Professor (conservation biology), Charles Darwin UniversityMartine Maron, ARC Future Fellow and Professor of Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandSarah Bekessy, Professor, RMIT UniversitySarah Legge, Professor, Australian National UniversityStephen Garnett, Professor of Conservation and Sustainable Livelihoods, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1174002019-05-23T02:04:09Z2019-05-23T02:04:09ZNewspoll probably wrong since Morrison became PM; polling has been less accurate at recent elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275999/original/file-20190523-187182-flwebc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The polls have likely been off for some time- one reason the result on election day was widely unexpected.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Glenn Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since Scott Morrison became PM in August 2018, Newspoll has usually been the best pollster for Labor. This was particularly so in late 2018, but these strong polls for Labor should now be questioned. In November 2018, Labor had two 52-48 lead results from Essential and Ipsos, but two Newspoll results the week before and the week after those polls gave Labor a 55-45 lead.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-worst-polls-since-turnbull-chaos-likely-in-victorian-upper-house-107176">Poll wrap: Labor's worst polls since Turnbull; chaos likely in Victorian upper house</a>
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<p>In late 2018, Essential usually gave Labor a lower two party vote than Newspoll, even though Essential’s preferencing method was better for Labor than Newspoll. Essential used last-election preferences, while Newspoll adjusted One Nation’s preferences to 60-40 to the Coalition – from the results, this adjustment was justified.</p>
<p>At the time, poll analysts assumed that Newspoll, not Essential, was correct, but the election results suggest Essential was more accurate in consistently having Labor’s primary vote lower than Newspoll had it.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-miracle-is-over-2019-australian.html">Kevin Bonham</a> said there is no evidence of a late swing; pre-poll booths had a greater swing to the Coalition than Election Day booths (2% vs 0.8%). That suggests that the polling has been wrong for a long time, and that Newspoll was flawed. During the campaign, other pollsters herded their results towards where Newspoll had it, but this was wrong.</p>
<p>The four active pollsters at this election were YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll, Ipsos, Essential and Morgan. Galaxy uses online methods and robopolling, Essential uses online methods, Ipsos uses live phone polling and Morgan uses face-to-face interviews. No pollster does only landline polling – Ipsos calls mobiles.</p>
<p>Australian pollsters have inadequate documentation of their methods. For example, we do not know what portion of Galaxy’s surveys are robocalls, and what portion use online methods. This lack of documentation should change after this poll failure.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-election-but-abbott-loses-warringah-plus-how-the-polls-got-it-so-wrong-116804">Coalition wins election but Abbott loses Warringah, plus how the polls got it so wrong</a>
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<h2>Polls have not been accurate in recent state elections</h2>
<p>Labor led in the final federal election polls by about 51.5-48.5, but lost the election by about the same margin. We won’t know final figures for at least a few weeks, but this miss was about three points. At recent elections, polls have not been accurate, also missing badly at the November 2018 Victorian election. Polls appear to have have become less accurate since the 2016 federal election.</p>
<p>This is the table of polls vs the election outcome for the July 2016 federal election. As with the 2019 election, polls appeared to “herd” too close together, but in 2016 they herded to the correct result. Bold numbers for poll estimates in the tables below denote cases where the poll was within 1% of the actual result.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275818/original/file-20190522-187179-yxbtrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275818/original/file-20190522-187179-yxbtrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=197&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275818/original/file-20190522-187179-yxbtrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=197&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275818/original/file-20190522-187179-yxbtrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=197&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275818/original/file-20190522-187179-yxbtrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=247&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275818/original/file-20190522-187179-yxbtrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=247&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275818/original/file-20190522-187179-yxbtrz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=247&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Federal election July 2016 polls vs election.</span>
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<p>At the March 2017 WA election, polls were too high on One Nation’s vote, caused by One Nation not contesting all WA seats. The Greens and Labor did a bit better than expected.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275807/original/file-20190522-187182-hzvhy3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275807/original/file-20190522-187182-hzvhy3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275807/original/file-20190522-187182-hzvhy3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275807/original/file-20190522-187182-hzvhy3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275807/original/file-20190522-187182-hzvhy3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=159&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275807/original/file-20190522-187182-hzvhy3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=159&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275807/original/file-20190522-187182-hzvhy3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=159&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">WA March 2017 polls vs election.</span>
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<p>At the November 2017 Queensland election, polls were good – unlike Queensland state breakdowns or polls at the federal election, which suggested 51-49 to the LNP or a 50-50 tie. The LNP <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-QLD.htm">currently leads</a> in Queensland by 57.5-42.5.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275804/original/file-20190522-187147-o0p54i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275804/original/file-20190522-187147-o0p54i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=123&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275804/original/file-20190522-187147-o0p54i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=123&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275804/original/file-20190522-187147-o0p54i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=123&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275804/original/file-20190522-187147-o0p54i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=154&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275804/original/file-20190522-187147-o0p54i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=154&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275804/original/file-20190522-187147-o0p54i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=154&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Queensland November 2017 polls vs election.</span>
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<p>At the March 2018 Tasmanian election, two polls, taken about a week before the election, understated the Liberal vote. But Tasmania has a bandwagon effect where people opt for the major party that can govern without needing the Greens.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275819/original/file-20190522-187157-1fki3i9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275819/original/file-20190522-187157-1fki3i9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=116&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275819/original/file-20190522-187157-1fki3i9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=116&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275819/original/file-20190522-187157-1fki3i9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=116&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275819/original/file-20190522-187157-1fki3i9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=146&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275819/original/file-20190522-187157-1fki3i9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=146&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275819/original/file-20190522-187157-1fki3i9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=146&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Tasmania March 2018 polls vs election.</span>
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<p>At the March 2018 SA election, both major parties, particularly the Liberals, had a greater primary vote than the polls estimated, and SA-Best did worse. SA-Best support had been falling.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275820/original/file-20190522-187147-eghj58.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275820/original/file-20190522-187147-eghj58.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=116&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275820/original/file-20190522-187147-eghj58.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=116&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275820/original/file-20190522-187147-eghj58.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=116&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275820/original/file-20190522-187147-eghj58.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=146&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275820/original/file-20190522-187147-eghj58.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=146&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275820/original/file-20190522-187147-eghj58.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=146&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">SA March 2018 polls vs election.</span>
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<p>At the November 2018 Victorian election, Labor led in the final polls by about 53.5-46.5, and won by 57.6-42.4. Few people care when the party expected to win wins by a bigger than expected margin, so polls are not criticised for these mistakes as much as they should be. When the expected winner loses, polls are heavily criticised.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275821/original/file-20190522-187172-1h8e0rh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275821/original/file-20190522-187172-1h8e0rh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275821/original/file-20190522-187172-1h8e0rh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275821/original/file-20190522-187172-1h8e0rh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275821/original/file-20190522-187172-1h8e0rh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275821/original/file-20190522-187172-1h8e0rh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275821/original/file-20190522-187172-1h8e0rh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Victoria November 2018 polls vs election.</span>
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<p>Only one poll at the March 2019 NSW election could be thought of as a final poll, with Newspoll at 51-49 to the Coalition (actual result 52.0-48.0). Movement to the Coalition was explained by the revelation of a video of Labor leader Michael Daley that could be construed as anti-Asian.</p>
<h2>Late counting updates</h2>
<p>Much counting of Liberal-friendly postal votes in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-205.htm">Chisholm</a> has confirmed it will be retained by the Liberals. That gives the Coalition an overall majority with 76 of the 151 seats. The Coalition is also likely to gain Bass, while Macquarie is still uncertain, but with the Liberals currently ahead.</p>
<p>The Coalition has improved its position in the Victorian and Queensland Senate races. With 58% <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/senate">counted in Victoria</a>, the Coalition has 2.47 quotas, Labor 2.24 and the Greens 0.72. With 60% counted in Queensland, the LNP has 2.70 quotas, Labor 1.62, the Greens 0.72 and One Nation 0.70.</p>
<p>If these results hold up, the Coalition is well-placed to win the final Victorian Senate seat. In Queensland, whoever is last after preferences from LNP, Labor, Greens and One Nation misses out, and that looks likely to be Labor. That would mean Queensland would split 4-2 to the right in the Senate.</p>
<p>If current counting in Victoria and Queensland holds, there will be 38 right-wing senators out of 76 (35 Coalition, two One Nation and Cory Bernardi), 35 left-wing senators (26 Labor and nine Greens), two Centre Alliance and Jacqui Lambie. The Coalition’s easiest path to passing legislation opposed by the left would be with other right-wing senators, plus either Lambie or Centre Alliance.</p>
<h2>AEC’s two party count does not yet include all electorates</h2>
<p>The Electoral Commission has a <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-24310.htm">two party preferred</a> count on the home page of its results, currently showing the Coalition ahead by 51.3-48.7. However, this two party count only includes seats where the Coalition and Labor are expected to be the final two candidates. There are currently 15 seats out of 151 with <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseNonClassicDivisions-24310.htm">“non-classic” contests</a>, where the final two candidates were not from the Coalition and Labor.</p>
<p>These non-classic contests are added to the two party count via a special count between the Coalition and Labor candidates, but this will not happen until the seat count has been nearly finalised. Ten of these seats are very likely to favour the Coalition when added to the count, and only five will favour Labor. That means the current two party count is biased to Labor.</p>
<p>In addition, there are three seats – Calare, Grey and Barker – where the Electoral Commission thought Labor would not make the final two. Labor made the final two in those seats, so they are slowly being recounted between the Coalition and Labor. These conservative seats still have plenty of votes that haven’t been added to the two party count.</p>
<p>With these distortions factored in, the two party count is probably close to 52-48 to the Coalition, though Labor should improve as absent votes, which favour Labor, have yet to be included.</p>
<h2>UK’s European Union elections are today</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/22/uks-european-union-elections-minus-one-day/">The Poll Bludger</a> about the UK’s European Union elections, which will be held today. No results will be released until all EU countries finish voting early on May 27 Australian Eastern Standard Time. Nigel Farage’s Brexit party is expected to win the UK’s EU elections, with the Conservatives crashing to their lowest ever national vote share. There has been much recent speculation that Theresa May will resign soon, so Boris Johnson could be the next PM.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117400/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While polls have been patchy for some years, analysis shows they have been particularly out of whack since Morrison became prime minister.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1176212019-05-22T10:50:53Z2019-05-22T10:50:53ZWind in Albanese’s sails as Chalmers weighs options<p>Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has pulled out of Labor’s leadership race, increasing the pressure for an uncontested run for Anthony Albanese, which would prevent an extended limbo period for the party.</p>
<p>But finance spokesman Jim Chalmers, Albanese’s only potential challenger, was still considering his position overnight. He will announce on Thursday morning whether he will run.</p>
<p>Bowen said he had decided to withdraw because, while he believed he would have a narrow majority in the caucus ballot, Albanese would beat him in the rank-and-file vote by a good margin. </p>
<p>“Hence I have reached the view that it would be unlikely for me to win the [overall] ballot.” The party and caucus ballots have equal weighting.</p>
<p>Chalmers immediately tweeted: </p>
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<p>I feel for Chris & I know it would’ve been hard for him to pull out. I’m being encouraged to nominate for leader & I’ll now consider my options overnight. @AustralianLabor needs to rebuild, refresh & renew & I want to play a prominent role in that. What role is to be determined.</p>
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<p>Chalmers, from the right, has been receiving support from those who believe the party needs generational change. Also, he is from Queensland, where Labor will have a big challenge in seeking to improve its support.</p>
<p>If he decides not to stand, he would be a strong contender for deputy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-the-lnp-returned-to-power-is-there-anything-left-in-adanis-way-117506">With the LNP returned to power, is there anything left in Adani's way?</a>
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<p>Labor’s national executive met on Wednesday evening to tick off on dates if there is a contest. Nominations open Thursday and close Monday. If there is more than one candidate, a postal ballot would be held between May 31 and June 27, followed by a caucus ballot on July 1.</p>
<p>Joel Fitzgibbon, who earlier this week threatened to run for leader, threw his support behind Albanese, saying he’d had a long discussion with him “about my demands that the party strengthens its focus on regional Australia”.</p>
<p>“I am satisfied that a Labor Party led by Anthony Albanese will provide that focus and he’ll listen closely to the needs and aspirations of our country people.”</p>
<p>There has been a pile-on of public support from senior Labor figures for Albanese. Labor’s Senate leader Penny Wong described him as “the outstanding parliamentarian of our generation”.</p>
<p>“Anthony Albanese knows who he is and he knows what he stands for. He’s a man of authenticity and integrity. He’s got a capacity to speak to people across this great country, to speak to people in the regions and in the outer suburbs as well as in our cities,” she said.</p>
<p>Speaking before Bowen’s withdrawal, Wong was asked about reports Bill Shorten was lobbying on Bowen’s behalf.</p>
<p>She said she would be surprised if that were happening – “it would undermine the unity that Bill has been such an important part in rebuilding”.</p>
<p>Shorten sources said reports of the outgoing leader’s activity (he encouraged Tanya Plibersek and then Bowen to stand) had been “overblown” – these had been the people he’d worked closely with.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">Queensland to all those #Quexiteers: don't judge, try to understand us</a>
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<p>Kristina Keneally, strongly backing Albanese, said Labor “had our backsides handed to us on a platter” on Saturday. Keneally may get the post of deputy Labor leader in the Senate. </p>
<p>Albanese said he believed he had majority support in caucus if there was a contest, and recalled his win in the rank-and-file ballot after the 2013 election.</p>
<p>“So I am confident but not complacent about being able to succeed if another candidate comes forward.”</p>
<p>If he became leader he would bring a different style to the position, he said.</p>
<p>“One of the things I won’t do is walk along to press conferences and make policy announcements without consultation, on the run.</p>
<p>"I won’t be obsessed by the 24-hour media cycle. We will have considered responses. We’ll have respect for caucus processes.”</p>
<p>He said that under his leadership Bowen would have “a critical role”.</p>
<p>In his news conference Bowen, who holds a seat in western Sydney, an area which has a big ethnic vote, made a strong call for the Labor party to give more attention to its attitude to “people of faith”.</p>
<p>He said it needed urgently to deal with “the matter of people of faith in our community not feeling that the Labor Party talks to them”.</p>
<p>He had noticed during the election campaign and afterwards “how often it has been raised with me that people of faith no longer feel that progressive politics cares about them.</p>
<p>"These are people with a social conscience, who want to be included in the progressive movement. We need to tackle this urgently. I think this is an issue from the federal election that we haven’t yet focused on”. </p>
<p>The Nationals’ Barnaby Joyce said that “Albanese would be an incredibly formidable leader of the opposition”, making the next election “vastly more difficult for the Coalition than the one we’ve just had”.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/3-lessons-from-behavioural-economics-bill-shortens-labor-party-forgot-about-117404">3 lessons from behavioural economics Bill Shorten's Labor Party forgot about</a>
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<h2>Barnaby Joyce doesn’t expect frontbench spot</h2>
<p>The Nationals meet in Canberra on Thursday, with their female representation tripled, from two to six, but the party’s cabinet numbers cut.</p>
<p>The Nationals held all their seats but one – Steve Martin, who joined the Nationals after replacing Jacqui Lambie in the last term, lost his Tasmanian Senate spot. The party room now numbers 21.</p>
<p>The good result has cemented the leadership of Michael McCormack, who had earlier been stalked by former leader Barnaby Joyce.</p>
<p>Joyce told The Conversation on Wednesday that he would like a position on the frontbench but “I don’t expect to get one”.</p>
<p>He said he would not be at the meeting. His partner Vikki Campion is expecting their second child soon.</p>
<p>McCormack chooses the Nationals frontbenchers who go into the Coalition ministry, with the number determined under a formula according to the proportion of seats won by the Liberals and Nationals.</p>
<p>The Nationals had five in the cabinet but are set now to have four under the formula.</p>
<p>What portfolios are allocated to the Nationals is a matter of negotiation between the prime minister and the deputy prime minister.</p>
<p>The new women are Perin Davey (Senate, NSW), Sam McMahon (Senate, NT), Susan McDonald (Senate, Queensland), and Anne Webster (Mallee, Victoria). They join deputy leader Bridget McKenzie and Michelle Landry from Queensland.</p>
<p>Nationals senators have to choose a new Senate leader to replace Nigel Scullion, who retired at the election. But that vote would be delayed – the new Senate does not come in until July 1. The obvious choice would be Resources Minister Matt Canavan, given the other Nationals senators, apart from McKenzie, will all be new.</p>
<p>Thursday’s meeting will discuss the party’s priorities and canvass the Coalition agreement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Jim Chalmers, from the right of the Labor party, has been receiving support from those who believe the party needs generational change.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1175062019-05-22T07:23:58Z2019-05-22T07:23:58ZWith the LNP returned to power, is there anything left in Adani’s way?<p>After months of “start” and “stop” Adani campaigning, the coalmine is poised to go ahead following the surprise success of the Coalition government at the federal election. </p>
<p>So is anything still stopping the coalmine from being built?</p>
<p>Australia has a federal system of government, but states own coal. This means the Queensland Labor government is responsible for issuing the Adani mining licence.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1129699220334604290"}"></div></p>
<p>And there are suggestions pressure is mounting in the state Labor party for the final approvals to be passed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/adani-blamed-for-labor-s-wipe-out-in-queensland-20190519-p51own">Strategists have argued</a> the state government must approve the Adani mine if they are to be re-elected next year. One of the reasons Labor lost votes in Queensland may have been because of perceived delays in the approval process by the Queensland Department of Environment and Science.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-its-the-internal-agitators-who-are-bugging-scott-morrison-on-adani-115076">View from The Hill: It's the internal agitators who are bugging Scott Morrison on Adani</a>
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<p>Now, Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has appointed her coordinator-general to oversee the remaining approvals. In a press conference, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-22/adani-approvals-removal-environment-department/11138140">she said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think that the community is fed up with the processes, I know I’m fed up with the processes, I know my local members are fed up with the processes … We need some certainty and we need some timeframes — enough is enough.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But what has “delayed” the state government so far is its legal duty to make sure the coalmine has an effective plan to manage matters of environmental significance.</p>
<p>Before the election, the federal government already approved two controversial environmental plans – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">groundwater management plan</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">finch management plan</a>. The only thing left now is for the Queensland Labor government to give its nod of approval. </p>
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<iframe src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/398/cd00e6e8d7813aaa023cd8e84ad3117a1effa163/site/index.html" frameborder="0" height="600" width="100%"> </iframe>
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<h2>Not ‘delay tactics’, but a legal duty</h2>
<p>The federal government does not have jurisdiction over state resources unless the project impacts matters of national environmental significance.</p>
<p>And the Adani mine is one such project. The mine would remove the habitat of an endangered species and significantly impact vital underground water resources. </p>
<p>This means the project needed to be <a href="https://www.edoqld.org.au/can_fed_government_stop_adani_minefor%20environmental%20assessment%20under%20the%20%5Bnational%20environment%20act%5D(https://www.environment.gov.au/epbc)">referred to</a> the federal government.</p>
<p>The aim of this referral was to make sure the environmental assessment process would sufficiently prevent or reduce irreparable damage to the environment. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/traditional-owners-still-stand-in-adanis-way-115454">Traditional owners still stand in Adani's way</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Generally, in a bilateral arrangement, the federal government authorises the state to conduct an environmental assessment. And this is the framework that has informed the Adani project from the outset. </p>
<p>This is our rule of law, and one that’s in the public interest. </p>
<p>So any suggestion the Queensland government engaged in “delay tactics” when they were carrying out these critical legal responsibilities is inaccurate and misconceives the fundamental legal responsibilities that underlie this process. </p>
<h2>There are two more approvals left</h2>
<p>There are two outstanding approvals required for the environmental conditions to be satisfied: the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">black-throated finch</a> environmental management plan and the groundwater environmental management plan. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The habitat of the endangered black-throated finch must be protected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/107368995@N04/33471514488/in/photolist-SZLg8o-FQLgh2-22JZ6ju-YgovAp-2c7sfjy-22JZ6am-2f8X1di-nUQ33T-NdBsS4-nV88oH-2cSugwf-Q3SKR9-2fVD2PV-2bQSgBd-2c3kJ1c-2c3sANU-2aMjQ3W-2auytbk-Ygovr6-QP81HG-QVpBcd-gVdjcf-omBEBe-297SHkb-297SHL1-nuNW3Y-297SCP7-2c3kKca-eYKDhr-4C9V7y-PYPpjh-25j2P6a-okUcQL-297SFcd-2c3sC9u-2cSuh4h-nfn9TN-Aa5dZ6-2fTzJA4-mHGE8a-2dti18k-mHGLav-ooDVKM-yDPXhJ-S82YNn-28ZdMXA-CNNuKD-zQPN51-Ajzmeg-A2ZAG1">Steve Dew</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h3>Black-throated finch</h3>
<p>The Queensland government rejected the black-throated finch management plan submitted by Adani last month. This was because the plan did not constitute a management plan at all.</p>
<p>If the finch’s habitat is destroyed by the coalmine, then it’s necessary to outline how this endangered species will be relocated, and how this relocation will be managed. </p>
<p>But the Adani management plan does not do this. Rather than setting up a conservation area for the finch, the Adani plan <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">proposed establishing</a> a cow paddock, which would destroy the grass seeds vital for the survival of the finch.</p>
<p>Clearly this plan does not comply with the environmental condition attached to its licence. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">Why Adani's finch plan was rejected, and what comes next</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h3>Groundwater management</h3>
<p>The Queensland Department of Environment and Science is currently reviewing the groundwater management plan and have sought <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/queensland-shoots-down-reports-of-new-adani-groundwater-review-20190513-p51mqu.html">further advice</a> from Geoscience Australia and CSIRO. </p>
<p>Adani must address how the mine will impact the threatened Doongmabulla Springs in the Great Artesian Basin. This involves creating a groundwater model capable of estimating how much groundwater levels will decrease when water is used to extract the coal. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">Unpacking the flaws in Adani's water management plan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This is important because the basin is a water supply for cattle stations, irrigation, livestock and domestic usage. It also provides <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-the-carmichael-coal-mine-need-to-use-so-much-water-75923">vital water supplies</a> to around 200 towns, which are entitled to draw between 100 and 500 million litres of water each year. </p>
<p>Any impact on the underground aquifers that feed into the Great Artesian Basin would not only be devastating for the environment, but also for all the communities that rely on its water resources.</p>
<p>The original groundwater model submitted by Adani <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/cb8a9e41-eba5-47a4-8b72-154d0a5a6956/files/csiro-geoscience-australia-final-advice.pdf">was not</a> “suitable to ensure the outcomes sought by the EPBC Act conditions are met”. </p>
<p>It’s unclear whether Adani’s resubmitted groundwater model still <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/protection/assessments/key-assessments">under-predicted</a> the impact because the further submissions made by Adani have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/09/coalition-approves-adani-groundwater-plan-despite-questions-over-modelling">not been subjected</a> to extensive review at the federal level. </p>
<p>Great care needs to be taken to ensure the expert advice from CSIRO and Geoscience is properly heeded.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The mine may cause the Doongmabulla Springs to cease flowing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lockthegatealliance/40929859781/in/photolist-25mQekB-25ksCuT">Lock the Gate Alliance/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Adani mine is an outlier in the global coal community</h2>
<p>The approval of the Adani coalmine comes at a time when the global community is rapidly moving away from coal. </p>
<p>Germany, a pioneer of the mass deployment of wind and solar power generation, <a href="http://www.globalenergyblog.com/germany-takes-the-first-steps-towards-the-end-of-coal-fired-power?utm_source=Mondaq&utm_medium=syndication&utm_campaign=View-Original">announced</a> the phaseout of its 84 coalfired plants.</p>
<p>Britain has just had its first week <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/britain-goes-a-week-without-coal-power-saying-this-is-the-new-normal-20190509-p51lgy.html">without coal-fired electricity</a>, and this new energy mix has rapidly become the “new normal”. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-transition-from-coal-4-lessons-for-australia-from-around-the-world-115558">How to transition from coal: 4 lessons for Australia from around the world</a>
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<p>But the international <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/confronting-coal">coal market</a> is variable. India’s consumption is expected to rise by the end of 2023, but their aim is to reduce coal imports. And China’s coal consumption is projected to fall almost 3%, largely due to the country’s ambitious clean energy plans. What’s more, coal is in decline in the United States and across Europe generally. </p>
<p>The global economy is de-carbonising. As global warming accelerates and cleaner energy options gain more traction, coal will inevitably decline even further. </p>
<p>A hasty post-election approval of the outstanding environmental plans for Adani coalmine would not only conflict with our domestic legal framework, but also the broader imperatives of the international community.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Queensland Labor government still must approve two outstanding environmental management plans for the Adani mine to go ahead.Samantha Hepburn, Director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1175022019-05-22T05:12:27Z2019-05-22T05:12:27ZQueensland to all those #Quexiteers: don’t judge, try to understand us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275822/original/file-20190522-187165-d23ze5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=742%2C5%2C2550%2C1886&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Progressive voices have lit up social media with memes blaming Queensland for Labor's loss in the federal election. But characterising the state as regressive and redneck is misplaced.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/The Conversation</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“What the hell is wrong with Queensland?” </p>
<p>Such comments are at the polite end of social media responses from progressive voters in other parts of Australia who were disappointed by the Coalition’s “miracle” win on Saturday. </p>
<p>Putting to one side the fact that the swings against Labor were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">not much bigger</a> in Queensland than some other parts of the country, and that it had the most marginal seats in the election, the instinct to <a href="https://junkee.com/blaming-queensland-election-australia/206236">blame and deride Queensland</a> highlights exactly what went wrong for the ALP. </p>
<p>Contrary to the claims of #Quexiteers, Queenslanders are not all deeply conservative, rusted-on LNP voters, even in central and northern regions. If they were, they wouldn’t have elected Labor governments for 25 of the past 30 years. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1129932497528037377"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/anna-bligh-carried-weight-of-the-sisterhood-as-queenslands-first-female-premier/news-story/92e6d140b3754e10311e6a92712eada1">Anna Bligh</a> was the first woman in Australia to be elected premier and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/annastacia-palaszczuk-queenslands-accidental-premier-20150402-1mdq2e.html">Annastacia Palaszczuk</a> was the first woman to be elected premier from opposition. Her ministry was the first in Australia to have a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/16/the-palaszczuk-ministry-includes-a-majority-of-women-but-dont-expect-a-revolution">female majority</a>. Voters who elected LNP members in Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson and Capricornia on Saturday voted in ALP members in the 2017 state election in seats like Cook, Cairns, Gladstone, Mackay and Keppel. </p>
<p>The problem for Labor, then, isn’t that Queenslanders don’t like voting Labor. Instead, the federal Labor Party, like the many <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/21/did-pollsters-misread-australias-election-or-did-pundits">pundits who predicted an ALP win</a>, seem to have underestimated or misunderstood the variances and nuances of the Queensland electorate. </p>
<p>As the only state where a majority of the population lives outside the capital city, regionalism matters in Queensland in a way it does not elsewhere. </p>
<h2>Why Queensland is different</h2>
<p>Settlement patterns in Queensland did not mirror other states. Regional towns and cities developed as service centres and ports for the hinterland industries, among them beef, gold, sugar, coal and gas. The first railways in the 1860s ran from the ports in coastal towns to these inland production centres, creating an interdependence not replicated in other parts of the country. </p>
<p>Queensland’s regions, therefore, developed as separate economic entities, with limited connection to the rest of Queensland (including the capital Brisbane), or indeed Australia. </p>
<p>This geography also informs the way people have historically voted. Any threat to the economic viability of hinterland industries had a spillover effect on the regional towns that serviced them. </p>
<p>As regions reliant on export industries, they have been highly susceptible to cycles of boom and bust. Many are still suffering high unemployment and depressed housing prices following a slowdown in mining and the end of the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/boom-over-the-industry-that-was-spending-10-000-a-minute-has-reached-its-peak-20180803-p4zved.html">LNG construction boom in and around Gladstone</a>. Frequent natural disasters have compounded their difficulties. </p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-myth-of-the-queensland-voter-australias-trust-deficit-and-the-path-to-indigenous-recognition-115569">The myth of 'the Queensland voter', Australia's trust deficit, and the path to Indigenous recognition</a>
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<p>As a result, Queensland governments have had to be highly responsive to the interests and fears of diverse communities. </p>
<p>The national focus of federal politics, however, is less conducive to understanding the differences between, say, Cairns and Clermont, Caboolture and Charleville. This hurt both Labor and the Coalition in the recent federal election, as evidenced by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">the rise in first preferences to minor parties</a> like One Nation and the United Australia Party.</p>
<p>Labor suffered more, though, due to its <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/negativegearing">policy-rich campaign platform</a> focused mainly on metropolitan, first-time home buyers and environmentalists. This did not signal to regional Australians, particularly those in Queensland, that their concerns had been heard. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1131031930496065544"}"></div></p>
<h2>Who is representing the workers?</h2>
<p>Queensland has a proud place in Labor history. The Labor movement was born under the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/heritage/places/national/tree">Tree of Knowledge</a> in Barcaldine in 1891. The state also elected the <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/first-labor-premier-anderson-dawsons-short-inglorious-reign/news-story/9aafb31eff9f36f932b4997dbd84837c">world’s first Labor government in 1899</a>. To characterise Queensland as regressive and redneck is to deny its historic and contemporary relationship with the Labor Party and workers.</p>
<p>It may be that working Queenslanders no longer see their lives or aspirations reflected in the federal Labor Party and its leadership. The pathway that <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/fisher-andrew-378">Andrew Fisher</a> and <a href="http://primeministers.naa.gov.au/primeministers/chifley/">Ben Chifley</a> took, for example, from engine driver to prime minister has gone the way of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2006-05-19/barcaldine-tree-of-knowledge-poisoned/1757536">poisoned Tree of Knowledge</a>. Labor is now dominated by professional political operatives drawn from the knowledge and professional classes – the group Bill Shorten personified. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-queensland-and-tasmania-win-it-for-the-coalition-117398">State of the states: Queensland and Tasmania win it for the Coalition</a>
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<p>When workers couldn’t see their concerns and fears reflected in Labor policies, they parked their vote with the permanent voices of disaffection – Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer. And in the federal election those parties’ preferences <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/queensland-helps-return-coalition-to-government-amid-labor-bloodbath-20190518-p51ost.html">flowed strongly to the LNP</a>. </p>
<p>In the marginal seats of Flynn, Capricornia, Dawson, Forde and Petrie, the LNP’s primary vote scarcely moved. After preferences, however, swings to the LNP ranged from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/flyn">5.7% in Flynn</a> to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/capr">11.1% in Capricornia</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/daws">11.4% in Dawson</a>, with votes still to be counted as of Wednesday. </p>
<h2>Concerns of the ‘neglected classes’</h2>
<p>Labor paid the electoral price for misjudging Queensland, but it was far from alone in doing so. Analysts and commentators, predominantly those south of the Tweed, indulged in the smug chauvinism of tired stereotypes. Social media lit up, exposing the cultural and political divide between urban, regional and rural Australia that journalist Gabrielle Chan documented in her recent book, <a href="https://www.booktopia.com.au/rusted-off-gabrielle-chan/prod9780143789284.html?zsrc=dsa-feed&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIqZ3H24Cu4gIVGDUrCh2i1AJVEAAYASAAEgI1x_D_BwE">Rusted Off: Why Country Australia is Fed Up</a>. </p>
<p>Chan describes the “neglected classes” – Australians locked out of opportunity by economic and social shifts, as well as a lack of technology, in the nation’s left-behind places. An <a href="http://www.fullemployment.net/pdi/pdi_2016_electorates.php?State=QLD&order=1">index of prosperity and distress</a> in Australian localities developed by the Centre of Full Employment and Equity identifies the seats of Hinkler, Wide Bay, Kennedy, Maranoa, Flynn and Capricornia in Queensland among the most economically distressed in the nation. Dawson, Blair, Longman, Herbert and Rankin are classified as “high risk”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/adani-aside-north-queensland-voters-care-about-crime-and-cost-of-living-86847">Adani aside, North Queensland voters care about crime and cost of living</a>
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<p>Another <a href="https://www120.secure.griffith.edu.au/research/file/e12cb44e-6909-4d44-abde-d4f00265946e/1/Developing%20an%20Energy%20Poverty%20Index%20for%20Queensland.pdf">index</a> developed by Griffith University researchers identifies Gladstone, Logan (encompassing the marginal seat of Forde retained by the LNP) and Far North Queensland as “hotspots” of <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/energy-poverty">energy poverty</a>, meaning they lack access to affordable energy services. </p>
<p>The prevailing discourse in Canberra, Sydney and Melbourne that this was the “climate change” election obscured the role that economic insecurity and disadvantage might have played in shifting votes to One Nation and United Australia, which flowed as preferences to the Coalition. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Voters in other parts of Australia made the Adani mine a campaign issue, but in Queensland, other concerns were paramount.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Lessons for the future</h2>
<p>What, then, can we learn from the 2019 federal election? For one, we need a better way of understanding the needs and interests of all Australians in election campaigns and developing a nuanced sense of local contexts and concerns. </p>
<p><a href="https://regionalinnovationdatalab.shinyapps.io/Dashboard/">Griffith University’s data dashboard</a> and <a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/federal-election">our coverage of Queensland seats</a> sought to ensure more informed reporting of the campaign than we have come to expect from the national media and commentators, whose lack of knowledge of different parts of Queensland seldom tempers their opinions. </p>
<p>Another important take-home is that federalism matters – perhaps more than ever. Australia’s federal framework was premised on the principle of <a href="https://www.caf.gov.au/subsidiarity.aspx">subsidiarity</a> – that decision-making should be devolved to the most local level possible.</p>
<p>National governments, by their nature, are homogenising. Political elites often strive to force states and regions to conform to a one-size-fits-all national policy approach, usually driven from the top down. </p>
<p>Labor’s experience in Queensland, however, suggests that local governments are better placed to accommodate regional differences and try to balance competing influences and perspectives. </p>
<p>Federalism was not mentioned once in the 2019 federal election campaign, but the result in Queensland suggests the need to rethink and reconceptualise the role the national government plays in a contemporary federation. This could help foster a political culture that is more responsive to, and respectful of, all parts of Australia – including and perhaps especially Queensland.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117502/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Tiernan has previously received research funding via competitive grants from the Australian Research Council and the Australia and New Zealand School of Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacob Deem and Jennifer Menzies do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland has a proud place in Labor history. But the 2019 election shows the federal Labor Party no longer understands the issues that matter to Queensland voters.Anne Tiernan, Professor of Politics. Dean (Engagement) Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityJacob Deem, Postdoctoral research fellow, Griffith UniversityJennifer Menzies, Principle Research Fellow, Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.