tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/greenhouse-gas-emissions-ghg-120500/articlesGreenhouse gas emissions (GHG) – The Conversation2024-03-26T16:39:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257992024-03-26T16:39:55Z2024-03-26T16:39:55ZAir quality at many train stations is alarmingly bad. Here’s how to improve it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583589/original/file-20240321-21-4sarpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5991%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/melbourne-australia-11-january-2020-southern-1616919649">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-06/melbourne-southern-cross-station-air-pollution-data-revealed/103486852">revelations</a> about poor air quality at Melbourne’s Southern Cross Station probably came as no surprise for passengers who have experienced such conditions. </p>
<p>Train platforms, bus terminal and nearby areas have recorded alarmingly poor air quality. In some parts of the station, nitrogen dioxide levels were more than 90 times the World Health Organization’s (WHO) <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/what-are-the-who-air-quality-guidelines">recommended limit</a>. At such levels, considered much <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-06/melbourne-southern-cross-station-air-pollution-data-revealed/103486852">higher than medically acceptable</a>, human <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/04-04-2022-billions-of-people-still-breathe-unhealthy-air-new-who-data">health is at risk</a>. </p>
<p>Poor air quality in train stations is a concern in many major cities, including <a href="https://www.timeout.com/sydney/news/air-pollution-in-sydney-train-stations-is-at-dangerous-levels-but-you-can-do-these-things-to-reduce-harm-022124">Sydney</a>, <a href="https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/poor-air-quality-across-northeastern-public-transit-systems">New York and Boston</a> in the US, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/london-underground-polluted-with-particles-small-enough-to-enter-the-human-bloodstream-new-research-196600">London</a> and <a href="https://www.pollutionsolutions-online.com/news/air-clean-up/16/breaking-news/are-train-stations-a-pollution-hotspot/49741">Edinburgh</a> in the UK. In some Sydney stations and tunnels, air pollution was <a href="https://rtbuexpress.com.au/inadequate-ventilation-in-stations-a-concern-for-workers-and-passengers/">up to five times worse</a> than the WHO’s recommended limit. </p>
<p>Poor air quality is a result of fumes from diesel engines, restricted airflow, station design and the wear of train components. These emissions include tiny airborne particles. This fine particulate matter can <a href="https://particleandfibretoxicology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12989-019-0296-2">cause illness and disease</a>. Passengers, workers and nearby residents may all be affected.</p>
<p>Solutions already exist. Investing in technology, alternative fuels, electrification and better management of stations can improve air quality and reduce the health risks. As with COVID, people can also <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4311076/">reduce their exposure</a> by wearing <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/factsheets/Pages/face-mask.aspx">suitable face masks</a>, such as <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/factsheets/Pages/face-mask.aspx">P2 and N95</a> masks.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/london-underground-polluted-with-particles-small-enough-to-enter-the-human-bloodstream-new-research-196600">London Underground polluted with particles small enough to enter the human bloodstream – new research</a>
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<h2>It’s a worldwide problem</h2>
<p>International studies show poor air quality is common in enclosed train and bus stations. Data for most stations from many cities show levels of fine particulate matter exceeded <a href="https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rndxwsxrBJ0">WHO guidelines</a>.</p>
<p>In Sao Paolo, Brazil, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31831243/">a study found</a> “time spent inside a bus terminal can result in an intolerable health risk for commuters”. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.8b06980">Danish study</a> identified much higherpollution levels of pollutants in and around diesel trains than for electric trains. Inside the diesel trains, levels of ultrafine particulate matter were 35 times higher, black carbon six times higher, nitrogen oxides (NOx) eight times higher, PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of 2.5 micrometres or less, so they can enter the bloodstream) twice as high and benzo(a)pyrene six times higher. </p>
<iframe title="PM2.5 levels in train stations around the world" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-OBmQR" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OBmQR/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="708" data-external="1"></iframe>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/commuting-by-subway-what-you-need-to-know-about-air-quality-82859">Commuting by subway? What you need to know about air quality</a>
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<h2>But aren’t trains a more sustainable form of transport?</h2>
<p>In terms of sustainability and general urban <a href="https://www.iqair.com/world-air-quality-report">air quality</a>, trains help reduce emissions and air pollution when compared to <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-rapid-shift-to-electric-vehicles-can-save-24-000-lives-and-leave-us-148bn-better-off-over-the-next-2-decades-190243">cars and trucks</a> in Australia. Trains transport people more efficiently, with a much smaller land, energy and emissions <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/fb7dc9e4-d5ff-4a22-ac07-ef3ca73ac680/The_Future_of_Rail.pdf">footprint</a>. </p>
<p>The health impacts of air pollution are usually <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266716300214?via%3Dihub#ecomp10">lower</a> for train commuters than those who commute by car. However, the impacts on train commuters depend on <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/epdf/10.1021/acs.est.8b06980">location, the fuel used</a> (diesel or electric) and the extent of their exposure to highly polluted air in enclosed and underground stations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-from-brake-dust-may-be-as-harmful-as-diesel-exhaust-on-immune-cells-new-study-129594">Air pollution from brake dust may be as harmful as diesel exhaust on immune cells – new study</a>
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<h2>What can be done to improve air quality?</h2>
<p>Rail operators can do many things to help passengers breath more easily. These involve both trains and station management.</p>
<p>Train-side interventions include the use of cleaner fuels, more efficient engines and filtering systems, and shifting from diesel to electric trains. </p>
<p>Station-side solutions include exhaust fans, station design and real-time monitoring of air quality. Optimising schedules and operations can reduce train engine idling time. Loading and unloading facilities can be relocated away from congested areas. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583612/original/file-20240322-28-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An infographic showing the ways to improve air quality, including electrified trains, air filters and policy changes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583612/original/file-20240322-28-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583612/original/file-20240322-28-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=806&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583612/original/file-20240322-28-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=806&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583612/original/file-20240322-28-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=806&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583612/original/file-20240322-28-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1013&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583612/original/file-20240322-28-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1013&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583612/original/file-20240322-28-j46w0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1013&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Swinburne University of Technology (2024)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p><strong>Alternative fuels</strong></p>
<p>Train operators have <a href="https://www.up.com/customers/track-record/tr090622-biofuel-locomotive-fleet.htm">trialled the use of biofuels</a>, typically blended with mineral diesel. Biodiesel and renewable diesel are made from renewable resources and burn cleaner. Biofuels can cut greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c00289">by up to 86%</a>. </p>
<p>Biodiesel costs <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/files/u/publication/alternative_fuel_price_report_january_2024.pdf">nearly the same</a> as mineral diesel, but renewable diesel costs more. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Biodiesel in the Outback.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-could-biofuels-replace-all-fossil-fuels-in-new-zealand-162502">Climate explained: could biofuels replace all fossil fuels in New Zealand?</a>
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<p><strong>Technology fixes</strong></p>
<p>Exhaust after-treatment systems on diesel engines are a low-cost option. Filters can capture most soot particles. <a href="https://enginetechforum.org/selective-catalytic-reduction-scr">Selective catalytic reduction</a> technology uses a chemical reaction to reduce <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40825-015-0020-0">NOx emissions</a>. </p>
<p>Improving ventilation and air flow within stations can also help <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114284">limit pollution</a>.</p>
<p>Another option is diesel-hybrid <a href="https://new.abb.com/news/detail/94295/department-for-infrastructure-and-transport-in-south-australia-selects-abb-for-australias-first-diesel-hybrid-train-fleet-conversion">train fleet conversion</a>. Electric traction modules and energy-storage systems recover energy when the train brakes and store it in a battery for later use. </p>
<p>These systems can operate the train when the diesel engines are shut down, for example during boarding. Energy savings can be <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352152X2202103X#ab0005">up to 6,000kWh/day</a>. </p>
<p>The South Australian government has <a href="https://www.dit.sa.gov.au/news/feed?a=1288902">retrofitted trains</a> with these systems. They can cut fuel use by up to 20% and carbon dioxide emissions by 2,400 tonnes a year on the Adelaide Metro. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">South Australia has retrofitted Adelaide trains with hybrid-diesel technology.</span></figcaption>
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<p><strong>Electrification</strong></p>
<p>Electric trains produce much less air pollution – around <a href="https://www.railway-technology.com/features/overhead-lines-vs-third-rail-how-does-rail-electrification-work/?cf-view">20-30% less greenhouse gas emissions</a> per passenger kilometre. </p>
<p>Being lighter and more efficient, electric trains are also cheaper to make, maintain and run than diesel trains (with average savings of <a href="https://www.railway-technology.com/features/overhead-lines-vs-third-rail-how-does-rail-electrification-work/">20%, 33% and 45%</a> respectively).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-freight-used-to-go-by-train-not-truck-heres-how-we-can-bring-back-rail-and-cut-emissions-219332">Australia's freight used to go by train, not truck. Here's how we can bring back rail – and cut emissions</a>
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<h2>Cleaner air saves lives</h2>
<p>Estimating health impacts in Australia is difficult due to limited data, but international evidence provides guidance.</p>
<p>Compared to travel on roads, commuters on trains and metros typically have less exposure to air pollution, except for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266716300214?via%3Dihub#ecomp10">black carbon</a>. Long-term exposure to black carbon <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519621002771">typically increases</a> mortality rates even at low levels of ambient air pollution.</p>
<p>At exposure levels close to what is <a href="https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/epdf/10.1164/rccm.201211-2004OC?role=tab">often found</a> in cities, excess lifetime lung cancer mortality is 0.3 per 1,000. For train staff, <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/epdf/10.1021/acs.est.8b06980">Danish research</a> estimates black-carbon exposure results in an extra 16 lung cancer deaths per 1,000 individuals over a lifetime (assuming an eight-hour working day). For working conditions over ten years, a six-fold increase in black carbon lifts this rate to 1.9 per 1,000. A ten-fold increase takes it to <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/epdf/10.1289/ehp.1306880">3.2 extra deaths per 1,000</a>. </p>
<p>Short-term exposure to high air pollution is also linked to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9875429/">deaths from kidney disease</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Researchers discuss the link between air pollution and lung cancer.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Leadership is needed to protect people and the planet</h2>
<p>Some solutions are easy to apply immediately. Others require planning and foresight. </p>
<p>The impacts on rail costs and operations should be balanced against the importance of protecting the health of commuters and staff, as well as cutting emissions. </p>
<p>Active monitoring and transparent reporting of air quality promote public trust. They’re also needed to assess the effectiveness of solutions. </p>
<p>Shifting towards a cleaner rail system is an opportunity for operators and regulators to show vision and leadership by supporting trains as one of the best alternatives to cars and trucks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225799/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magnus Moglia receives funding from the iMOVE Australia Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, Sydney Water, Sustainability Victoria, AHURI, and ACIAR. He is affiliated with Regen Melbourne.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian A. Nygaard receives funding from the iMOVE Australia Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, Sustainability Victoria, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, and the Community Housing Industry Association</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hadi Ghaderi receives funding from the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, IVECO Trucks Australia limited, Innovative Manufacturing Cooperative Research Centre, Victoria Department of Education and Training, Bondi Laboratories, Australian Meat Processor Corporation, MotorOne Group, 460degrees and Passel.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Australia Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, and Beam Mobility Holdings.
For this article, Hussein acknowledges the input of Mr Ali Matin, PhD candidate from Swinburne University of Technology, for the work he completed in collating the data and development of diagrams and visuals.</span></em></p>Serious air pollution is a common problem in stations around Australia and the world. But solutions already exist, and some can be applied immediately to protect station staff and commuters.Magnus Moglia, Associate Professor in Systems Science and Sustainable Urbanism, Swinburne University of TechnologyChristian A. Nygaard, Professor in Social Economics and Urban Studies, Swinburne University of TechnologyHadi Ghaderi, Associate Professor in Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Swinburne University of TechnologyHussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252682024-03-18T19:21:15Z2024-03-18T19:21:15ZOn a climate rollercoaster: how Australia’s environment fared in the world’s hottest year<p>Global climate <a href="https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-confirms-2023-smashes-global-temperature-record">records were shattered</a> in 2023, from air and sea temperatures to sea-level rise and sea-ice extent. Scores of countries recorded their hottest year and numerous weather disasters occurred as climate change reared its head. </p>
<p>How did Australia’s environment fare against this onslaught? In short, 2023 was a year of opposites.</p>
<p>For the past nine years, we have trawled through huge volumes of data collected by satellites, measurement stations and surveys by individuals and agencies. We include data on global change, oceans, people, weather, water, soils, vegetation, fire and biodiversity. </p>
<p>Each year, we analyse those data, summarising them in an <a href="https://bit.ly/ausenv2023">annual report</a> that includes an overall Environmental Condition Score and <a href="https://ausenv.online/aer/scorecards/">regional scorecards</a>. These scores provide a relative measure of conditions for agriculture and ecosystems. Scores declined across the country, except in the Northern Territory, but were still relatively good.</p>
<p>However, the updated <a href="https://tsx.org.au/">Threatened Species Index</a> shows the abundance of listed bird, mammal and plant species has continued to decline at a rate of about 3% a year since the turn of the century.</p>
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<span class="caption">Environmental condition indicators for 2023, showing the changes from 2000–2022 average values. Such differences can be part of a long-term trend or within normal variability.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2023_Australias_Environment_Report-1.pdf">Australia's Environment 2023 Report.</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-2023s-record-heat-worsened-droughts-floods-and-bushfires-around-the-world-220836">How 2023's record heat worsened droughts, floods and bushfires around the world</a>
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<h2>Riding a climate rollercoaster in 2023</h2>
<p>Worldwide, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-2023s-record-heat-worsened-droughts-floods-and-bushfires-around-the-world-220836">77 countries broke temperature records</a>. Australia was not one of them. Our annual average temperature was 0.53°C below the horror year 2019. Temperatures in the seas around us were below the records of 2022. </p>
<p>Even so, 2023 was among Australia’s eight warmest years in both cases. All eight came after 2005.</p>
<p>However, those numbers are averaged over the year. Dig a bit deeper and it becomes clear 2023 was a climate rollercoaster.</p>
<p>The year started as wet as the previous year ended, but dry and unseasonably warm weather set in from May to October. Soils and wetlands across much of the country started drying rapidly. In the eastern states, the fire season started as early as August. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, there was generally still enough water to support good vegetation growth throughout the unusually warm and sunny winter months.</p>
<p>Fears of a severe fire season were not realised as El Niño’s influence waned in November and rainfall returned, in part due to the warm oceans. Combined with relatively high temperatures, it made for a hot and humid summer. A tropical cyclone and several severe storms caused flooding in Queensland and Victoria in December. </p>
<p>As always, there were regional differences. Northern Australia experienced the best rainfall and growth conditions in several years. This contributed to more grass fires than average during the dry season. On the other hand, the rain did not return to Western Australia and Tasmania, which ended the year dry.</p>
<h2>So how did scores change?</h2>
<p>Every year we calculate an Environmental Condition Score that combines weather, water and vegetation data.</p>
<p>The national score was 7.5 (out of 10). That was 1.2 points lower than for 2022, but still the second-highest score since 2011. </p>
<p>Scores declined across the country except for the Northern Territory, which chalked up a score of 8.8 thanks to a strong monsoon season. With signs of drought developing in parts of Western Australia, it had the lowest score of 5.5.</p>
<p>The Environmental Condition Score reflects environmental conditions, but does not measure the long-term health of natural ecosystems and biodiversity. </p>
<p>Firstly, it relates only to the land and not our oceans. Marine heatwaves damaged ecosystems along the eastern coast. Surveys in the first half of 2023 suggested the recovery of the Great Barrier Reef plateaued. </p>
<p>However, a cyclone and rising ocean temperatures occurred later in the year. In early 2024, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-barrier-reefs-latest-bout-of-bleaching-is-the-fifth-in-eight-summers-the-corals-now-have-almost-no-reprieve-225348">another mass coral bleaching event</a> developed. </p>
<p>Secondly, the score does not capture important processes affecting our many threatened species. Among the greatest dangers are invasive pests and diseases, habitat destruction and damage from severe weather events such as heatwaves and megafires.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-ecosystems-unprecedented-climates-more-australian-species-than-ever-are-struggling-to-survive-222375">New ecosystems, unprecedented climates: more Australian species than ever are struggling to survive</a>
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<h2>Threatened species’ declines continued</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://tsx.org.au/">Threatened Species Index</a> captures data from long-term threatened species monitoring. The index is updated annually with a three-year lag, largely due to delays in data processing and sharing. This means the 2023 index includes data up to 2020.</p>
<p>The index showed an unrelenting decline of about 3% in the abundance of Australia’s threatened bird, mammal and plant species each year. This amounts to an overall decline of 61% from 2000 to 2020.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line graph of Threatened Species Index" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Threatened Species Index showing the abundance of different categories of species listed under the EPBC Act relative to 2000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2023_Australias_Environment_Report-1.pdf">Australia's Environment 2023 Report</a></span>
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<p>The index for birds in 2023 revealed declines were most severe for terrestrial birds (62%), followed by migratory shorebirds (47%) and marine birds (24%).</p>
<p>A record 130 species were added to Australia’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/nominations">threatened species lists</a> in 2023. That’s many more than the annual average of 29 species over previous years. The 2019–2020 <a href="https://theconversation.com/200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed-198989">Black Summer bushfires</a> had direct impacts on half the newly listed species.</p>
<h2>Population boom adds to pressures</h2>
<p>Australia’s population passed <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-clock-pyramid">27 million</a> in 2023, a stunning increase of 8 million, or 41%, since 2000. Those extra people all needed living space, food, electricity and transport. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-population-is-expected-to-double-in-80-years-we-asked-australians-where-they-want-all-these-people-to-live-176889">Our population is expected to double in 80 years. We asked Australians where they want all these people to live</a>
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<p>Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2023">have risen by 18% since 2000</a>. Despite small declines in the previous four years, emissions increased again in 2023, mostly due to air travel rebounding after COVID-19. </p>
<p>Our emissions per person are the <a href="https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2023">tenth-highest in the world</a> and more than three times those of the average global citizen. The main reasons are our coal-fired power stations, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-passenger-vehicle-emission-rates-are-50-higher-than-the-rest-of-the-world-and-its-getting-worse-222398">inefficient road vehicles</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/11/how-many-cattle-are-there-in-australia-we-may-be-out-by-10-million">large cattle herd</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, there are reasons to be optimistic. Many other countries have dramatically <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-gdp-decoupling">reduced emissions without compromising economic growth</a> or quality of life. All we have to do is to finally follow their lead.</p>
<p>Our governments have an obvious role to play, but we can do a lot as individuals. We can even save money, by switching to renewable energy and electric vehicles and by eating less beef.</p>
<p>Changing our behaviour will not stop climate change in its tracks, but will slow it down over the next decades and ultimately reverse it. We cannot reverse or even stop all damage to our environment, but we can certainly do much better.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-australias-net-zero-transition-threatens-to-stall-rooftop-solar-could-help-provide-the-power-we-need-220050">As Australia's net zero transition threatens to stall, rooftop solar could help provide the power we need</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Australia’s Environment is produced by the ANU Fenner School for Environment & Society and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN), an NCRIS-enabled National Research Infrastructure. Albert Van Dijk receives or has previously received funding from several government-funded agencies, grant schemes and programmes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tayla Lawrie is a current employee of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN), funded by the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shoshana Rapley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Conditions deteriorated in 2023 but were stlil relatively good for ecosystems and agriculture. Unfortunately, the alarming decline of threatened species continued.Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityShoshana Rapley, Research Assistant, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityTayla Lawrie, Project Manager, Threatened Species Index, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2204542024-03-17T12:55:29Z2024-03-17T12:55:29ZEmissions impossible? How the transport sector can help make the 2050 net-zero goal a reality<p>Meeting Canada’s <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">ambitious net-zero emissions target by 2050</a> necessitates significant technological, behavioural and systemic changes in the transportation sector, a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-transport#:%7E:text=The%20IEA%20looks%20at%20CO%202%20emissions%20from,%2F%2033.5%20billion%20%3D%2024%25%20of%20energy-related%20emissions.">major contributor</a> to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Indeed, the transportation sector alone is responsible for a quarter of all GHG emissions worldwide, with road transport accounting for about 80 per cent of this figure. </p>
<p>As current trends suggest, both energy demand and emissions from transportation are <a href="https://uploads.iasscore.in/pdf/CAA_WEEK-2_NOVEMBER--2022.pdf">expected to double by 2050</a>, indicating the need for a radical transformation rather than incremental improvements.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/e-fuels-can-play-a-huge-role-in-canadas-journey-towards-a-net-zero-future-215405">E-fuels can play a huge role in Canada's journey towards a net-zero future</a>
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<p>The shift towards alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), such as plug-in electric or fuel cell hydrogen, is central to this transformation.</p>
<p>Estimates suggest that achieving the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/whats-difference-between-15c-2c-global-warming-2021-11-07/">2 C climate target</a> would require AFVs to comprise 50 per cent of total traffic by 2050. Moreover, achieving the 1.5 C climate target would require AFV sales to reach 75 to 95 per cent by <a href="https://systemschangelab.org/transport/transition-zero-carbon-cars-trucks-and-buses#summary">2030</a>.</p>
<p>The commercial sector, in particular, stands to benefit from significant GHG reductions, both financially and through the adoption of modern trucks equipped with advanced technologies. </p>
<h2>Challenges and opportunities</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019">International Energy Agency</a> estimates that GHG emissions could be reduced by 60 per cent if new types of light, medium and heavy freight vehicles achieve widespread adoption. However, the transition to AFVs, particularly in the commercial domain, is hindered by several factors and their adoption remains <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-electric-heavy-duty-vehicles">limited</a>. </p>
<p>In 2022, electric vehicles constituted only 1.2 per cent of all medium- and heavy-duty truck sales, with the majority occurring in China. This lack of adoption by trucking firms reflects a wait-and-see approach, which is likely the result of higher upfront costs associated with AFVs, the scarcity of e-trucks and the perceived inconvenience of plug-in <a href="https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-the-future-of-the-trucking-industry-electric-semi-trucks-2023">charging</a>.</p>
<p>Technological advancements and the increasing interest from vehicle manufacturers <a href="https://globaldrivetozero.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Final_ZETI-Report-June-2023_Final.pdf">such as Daimler, Nikola, Scania, Tesla and Volvo</a> in producing e-trucks have begun to address some of these concerns. </p>
<p>In 2022, there were 290 medium- and heavy-duty vehicle models produced or announced to be under production in <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-electric-heavy-duty-vehicles">North America and Europe</a>. This number is only set to grow and the total cost of ownership for electric vehicles has been reduced to below that of traditional internal combustion vehicles — further challenging the traditional barriers to adoption. </p>
<h2>The struggle for adequate charging infrastructure</h2>
<p>However, insufficient charging infrastructure remains an obstacle. Extended charging periods and the effort required to locate charging stations leads to longer unproductive driving times (time not spent on-the-job) for trucks. </p>
<p>The impact of inadequate charging infrastructure on the transportation industry is significant. Each minute a truck <a href="https://www.ooida.com/trucking-tools/cost-per-mile/">spends at a charging station, either waiting or charging, and each kilometre traversed to find a charging station directly translates to reduced profits and higher costs</a>. This not only affects timely deliveries and pickups, but also forces companies to consider expanding their fleet to maintain service levels, further escalating investment costs in a fiercely competitive industry. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-why-we-need-to-break-our-addiction-to-combustion-218019">COP28: Why we need to break our addiction to combustion</a>
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<p>The absence of substantial investment in <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-charging-infrastructure#abstract">public charging networks</a>, particularly outside of China, exacerbates this issue. Furthermore, even with ample public stations, firms worry that queues for charging could delay trucks, increasing costs and lowering service quality while also complicating the shift towards green practices.</p>
<h2>Economic viability of electrification</h2>
<p>The seven to 10-year lifespan of heavy-duty trucks means that many firms may have to make annual decisions on replacement vehicles. However, firms are often <a href="https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-the-future-of-the-trucking-industry-electric-semi-trucks-2023">deterred from transitioning away from fossil fuels by the high initial costs of e-trucks</a> and the lack of a comprehensive charging infrastructure — choosing instead to stick with their existing fleets.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">An overview on the evolution and limitations of electric trucks produced by Undecided with Matt Ferrell.</span></figcaption>
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<p>This approach overlooks the long-term benefits and cost savings associated with the lower operational and maintenance costs of e-trucks, as well as the potential for firms to develop their own charging networks. As we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2022.102595">show in our 2022 study</a>, adopting a holistic approach to address these challenges could make the transition to e-trucks economically viable, encouraging firms to begin replacing their traditional international combustion vehicles. </p>
<p>Such a holistic approach should consider the medium to long-term evolution of technological and economic factors, and the effects of the charging infrastructure density on fleet size requirements. Firms should optimize their vehicle and infrastructure investment decisions simultaneously, by considering the potential changes over time. Our study further showed that: </p>
<p>1) Investing in e-trucks can be optimal only if the decision-maker also invests in their own charging infrastructure.</p>
<p>2) Larger battery capacity is not always the best option compared to smaller battery capacity. </p>
<p>3) Improvements in diesel engine efficiency can be counterproductive in the long-run and can thwart the efforts to attain net-zero emission targets.</p>
<h2>Public-private partnerships</h2>
<p>The concept of public-private partnerships also presents an opportunity to enhance the charging infrastructure. By collaborating with governments and investing in increasing the charging capacity of public charging facilities, firms can mitigate the limitations of the current infrastructure and maintain service levels without bearing the full cost of establishing and maintaining charging stations. </p>
<p>This approach benefits firms, the government and also the general public by helping build more charging facilities. Simply put, by adopting a holistic approach, firms can not only achieve environmental goals, but also realize economic benefits, paving the way for a sustainable future in transportation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While barriers still remain, the benefits of electrifying the transport sector are clear for both society and individual firms.Osman Alp, Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management, University of CalgaryMaximiliano Udenio, Associate Professor of Supply Chain Management, KU LeuvenTarkan Tan, Professor of Sustainable Operations Management, University of ZurichLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2253472024-03-13T12:38:06Z2024-03-13T12:38:06ZClimate-friendly beef? Argentina’s new ‘carbon-neutral’ certification could help reduce livestock emissions – if it’s done right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580769/original/file-20240308-17800-vh4rq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C0%2C5856%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cattle are major producers of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ArgentinaFarmersStrike/32b525a49646407fb02737682544e817/photo">AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Argentina, where beef is a <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210522-argentina-s-beloved-beef-becomes-bone-of-contention-as-prices-soar">symbol of national pride</a>, a government-led partnership has started <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/cambio-climatico-certificaron-en-la-argentina-la-primera-produccion-de-carne-vacuna-carbono-negativo-nid12022024/">certifying certain livestock</a> as carbon neutral. It’s a big step that shouldn’t be underestimated, but getting the certification process right is crucial. </p>
<p>The world’s livestock sector is a key driver of climate change, contributing around <a href="https://foodandagricultureorganization.shinyapps.io/GLEAMV3_Public/">12% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb1922en/cb1922en.pdf">Two-thirds</a> of agriculture’s annual greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock, with raising cattle for meat typically being the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food">most emissions-intensive</a> activity. While shifting diets to plant-based foods and <a href="https://gfi.org/initiatives/climate/">alternative proteins</a> can help reduce emissions, global <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb5332en/Meat.pdf">meat consumption</a> is growing with an expanding population and rising prosperity.</p>
<p>There are ways that livestock producers can reduce those emissions. However, beyond social pressure, ranchers have few incentives to do so. Unless those steps to reduce emissions also increase productivity, they typically become costs with little immediate benefit in return.</p>
<p>With formal certification, farmers can earn a higher price. This has been the case with certified organic or fair-trade products. If livestock could be raised in ways that produce fewer emissions and certified as climate-friendly, the resulting higher prices they could fetch might give producers an incentive to invest in reducing their herds’ emissions.</p>
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<img alt="A cow photographed through a tree canopy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Argentina’s new ‘carbon-neutral’ certification hinges on the grazing landscape sequestering carbon in trees and in the soil to offset methane produced by the cattle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cattle_-_Eldorado,_Misiones_(31449238075).jpg">Papa Pic, Eldorado, Argentina</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Argentina’s certification approach <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/cambio-climatico-certificaron-en-la-argentina-la-primera-produccion-de-carne-vacuna-carbono-negativo-nid12022024/">relies on a silvopastoral system</a>, which integrates tree growth with grazing or production of grasses or grains for fodder. Livestock are raised in forest interspersed with native natural grasslands and cultivated pastures. The pasture and grazing are managed to return nutrients and organic matter to the soil. </p>
<p>The trees and soil regeneration methods both store carbon, leading to the certification’s claim that the cattle, despite the greenhouse gases they produce, are carbon neutral. </p>
<p>The certification, approved in early 2024, is a collaboration between Argentina’s National Agricultural Technology Institute and National Industrial Technology Institute and the Argentinian private sector, <a href="https://epd.inti.gob.ar/assets/uploads/libreria/S-P-07361-Eng.pdf">with certification</a> from the <a href="https://www.environdec.com/about-us/the-international-epd-system-about-the-system">International Environmental Product Declaration System</a>, one of the first and longest operating third-party verification systems of environmental claims.</p>
<p>This silvopastoral system may be hard to replicate elsewhere, but it’s only one way to reduce livestock emissions. I’m an <a href="https://keough.nd.edu/people/paul-winters/">agricultural and resource economist</a> and executive director for the <a href="https://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/">Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture</a>, led by Nobel Laureate Michael Kremer. Here are some other emerging innovations that could lead to livestock certifications that reduce emissions:</p>
<h2>1. Feed additives</h2>
<p>Innovative feed additives, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247820">such as red seaweed</a>, could reduce livestock methane emissions by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/AN20295">26% to 98%</a>, depending on the type of additive and how it is administered.</p>
<p>Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with many times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. About 12% of ruminants’ gross energy intake goes into digestive processes that generate methane, which the cows belch into the air. So reducing methane emissions via feed additives could also <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cows-a-few-ounces-of-seaweed-daily-could-sharply-reduce-their-contribution-to-climate-change-157192">increase productivity</a> while <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news/can-seaweed-cut-methane-emissions-on-dairy-farms">maintaining milk quality</a>. If cattle can conserve energy in the digestive process, they can redirect it toward animal growth and milk production.</p>
<p>Startup companies, such as <a href="https://blueoceanbarns.com/">Blue Ocean Barns</a> and <a href="https://www.future-feed.com/">FutureFeed</a>, have started to produce feed additives to reduce methane. However, products like these aren’t widely used yet, largely because cattle producers have no incentive to invest in changing their practices.</p>
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<h2>2. Gene editing</h2>
<p>Research underway into gene editing – intentionally altering the genetic code of a living organism – <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/food/news/can-crispr-cut-methane-emissions-cow-guts">may also have the potential</a> to change the microbes that produce methane in livestock’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-021-01014-7">gut microbiomes</a>. That could substantially reduce livestock emissions.</p>
<p>This type of innovation <a href="https://vcresearch.berkeley.edu/news/igis-audacious-new-frontier-crispr-editing-microbiomes-climate-and-health">might benefit farmers</a> who let their livestock graze in fields rather than provide them with feed. Compared to additives like seaweed, gene editing is meant to be a long-term solution, which would make it more cost-effective over time. But like feed additives, currently there is limited incentive for breeders and producers to consider this direction.</p>
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<h2>3. Advanced farm-management practices</h2>
<p>Advanced farm-management practices, such as improved feeding software, could also help reduce methane emissions intensity. These practices tend to be more affordable than other options.</p>
<p>For example, dairy production in sub-Saharan Africa is much more <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/CA2929EN/ca2929en.pdf">emissions intensive</a> per gallon of milk than production in North America or Europe, and cows in the region are only 5%-7% as productive. This is due to a host of management limitation in low-income settings.</p>
<p>Existing technologies for animal management can be adapted to <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">increase production efficiency</a> and <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/ab129327-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/ab129327-en#section-d1e24585">reduce overall emissions</a>. Methods of providing better nutrition and animal care for livestock that limit excess methane production are already <a href="https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2019-16576">widely used in higher-income countries</a>. These methods could also be adapted for producers in low- and middle-income regions, with support and the right incentives.</p>
<h2>Certification as a path forward</h2>
<p>Certification can give livestock producers incentive to use these methods, but certification systems must be carefully designed. </p>
<p>Claims like Argentina’s should be <a href="https://www.environdec.com/home">reliably verified</a> to ensure that the certification is credible. Argentina took an important step by including a proven third-party verification system, going beyond similar “climate-friendly” national programs <a href="https://www.climateactive.org.au/sites/default/files/2023-09/NAPCo%20Public%20Disclosure%20Statement_CY2022_Final.pdf">initiated in Australia</a> and <a href="https://modernfarmer.com/2021/12/low-carbon-beef-certification/">the United States</a>.</p>
<p>The organizations that verify certificates should play a role in establishing the rules, but so should governments. For example, feed additives alone are unlikely to reach “carbon-neutral,” but organizations are exploring whether <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">lesser reductions</a> could be sufficient for livestock to be certified as “climate friendly” and earn a higher price for producers. </p>
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<img alt="Cattle cross a dirt road with trees and rangeland in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Cattle graze in Argentina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ArgentinaElectionsFarmers/c017cec73c3d425a91263832aca47bd3/photo">AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko</a></span>
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<p>Finally, certification will only work if consumers are willing to pay a higher price for carbon-neutral, or even just climate-friendly, meat and dairy products.</p>
<p>Higher payments can come directly from consumers buying certified products or through government regulations requiring all meat and dairy products be certified. For example, under its <a href="https://food.ec.europa.eu/horizontal-topics/farm-fork-strategy_en">Farm to Fork Strategy</a>, the European Commission encourages food systems that can mitigate climate change. If the commission were to only accept meat and dairy products certified as climate-friendly, that would create an incentive to pursue certification to enter the large European market.</p>
<p>Some environmental groups have complained that climate certification for beef and <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">related carbon credits</a> result <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/175337/bs-behind-usdas-new-climate-friendly-beef-label">in greenwashing</a>, allowing companies and the industry to burnish their reputations while continuing to release emissions. But certification can also encourage livestock producers to take steps they otherwise wouldn’t to reduce overall emissions for a better planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Winters does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cattle are major producers of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. But there are methods that can reduce their climate impact – if ranchers have incentive to use them.Paul Winters, Professor of Global Affairs, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180912024-03-10T13:10:22Z2024-03-10T13:10:22ZThe world is not moving fast enough on climate change — social sciences can help explain why<p>In late 2023 the United States government released <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">its Fifth National Climate Assessment</a> (NCA). The NCA is a semi-regular summation of the impacts of climate change upon the U.S. and the fifth assessment was notable for being the first to include <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/20/">a chapter on social systems and justice</a>. </p>
<p>Built on decades of social science research on climate change, the fifth NCA contends with two truths that are increasingly being reckoned with in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/climate/biden-environmental-justice.html">U.S. popular</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1816020116">academic conversations</a>. </p>
<p>The first is that climate change has the potential to exacerbate health, social and economic outcomes for Black, Indigenous, people of colour (BIPOC) and low-income communities. The second is that social systems and institutions — including governmental, cultural, spiritual and economic structures — are the only places where adaptation and mitigation can occur.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-is-not-just-heat-waves-climate-change-is-also-a-crisis-of-disconnection-210594">It is not just heat waves — climate change is also a crisis of disconnection</a>
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<p>We only have to compare <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-06081-w">mortality rates for the COVID-19 pandemic disaggregated by race, income, and other axes of inequality</a> to recognize that we are not all in the same boat, despite experiencing the same storm. Today, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/sou120">race</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087403253053">income</a> similarly predict who is likely to be displaced permanently after a major hurricane — and forced relocation can have negative impacts on individuals and communities for generations. </p>
<p>Understanding how existing social systems influence, and are influenced by, climate change is key to not only slowing the effects of an increasingly warming Earth, but also ensuring that society’s transition to a new world is a <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-030-89460-3.pdf">just one</a>. </p>
<p>And there is no doubt that we are indeed facing a new world.</p>
<h2>Not moving fast enough</h2>
<p>Decades of scientific research have shown that <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/all-figures">increasingly devastating and rapid climatic changes</a> are ahead of us, including more intense hurricanes, droughts and floods. </p>
<p>Our recent levels of resource consumption — particularly in the Global North and countries with large developing economies — <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262681612/a-climate-of-injustice/">are untenable</a>. To be clear, the world <em>is</em> responding to these risks with the U.S. alone achieving a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/documents/us-ghg-inventory-1990-2019-data-highlights.pdf">13 percent decrease in annual greenhouse gas emissions between 2005 and 2019</a>, but these responses are not good enough.</p>
<p>It is the purview of social scientists — the scientists tasked with studying human society and social relationships in all of their complexity — to ask why.</p>
<p>What is it about the ethics, cultures, economies, and symbols at play in the world that have made it so difficult to turn the tide and make change? Why do we — individuals, societies, cultures, and nations — mostly seem unable to curb emissions at the rates necessary to save ourselves and our planet?</p>
<p>These are questions that can only partially be answered by new information and technologies developed by physical scientists and engineers. We also need an understanding of how humans behave. Having new technology matters for little if you do not also understand how social, economic and political decisions are made — and how certain groups are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1818859116">able to develop habits around lower rates of emissions and consumption</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/telling-stories-of-our-climate-futures-is-essential-to-thinking-through-the-net-zero-choices-of-today-210326">Telling stories of our climate futures is essential to thinking through the net-zero choices of today</a>
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<p>We know that inequitable systems create <a href="http://thinkpunkgirl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Lee_2021.pdf">unevenly distributed risk</a> and capacities to respond. For example, a hurricane’s intensity scale is less predictive of its mortality rates than the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27572097/">socio-economic conditions within the nation where the storm makes landfall</a>. Understanding these dynamics is the only way to respond to climate change in a way that does not entrench deep tendencies towards racist, sexist and classist landscapes of vulnerability. </p>
<h2>Empowering real change</h2>
<p>Recognizing that disasters and climate disruptions have the potential to make inequality worse also means that we have the opportunity to do better. </p>
<p>There are a range of outcomes that may stem from climate related disasters with a vast inventory of what is possible. There are also hopeful examples that point the way to rich collaborations and problem solving. For example, <a href="https://www.cityoftulsa.org/government/departments/engineering-services/flood-control/flooding-history/">Tulsa, Okla.</a> was the most frequently flooded city in the U.S. from the 1960s into the 1980s, but a coalition of concerned citizens came together with the city government to create a floodplain management plan that serves as <a href="https://kresge.org/resource/climate-adaptation-the-state-of-practice-in-u-s-communities/">a model</a> for other cities. </p>
<p>In another example, Indigenous communities around the U.S. have some of the most <a href="https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH16">proactive planning</a> in place for adapting to climate change, despite histories of persecution, theft and violent exploitation.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on Indigenous-led bison conservations in the U.S., produced by the Associated Press.</span></figcaption>
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<p>There is an adage that says in order to go quickly, go alone; if you want to go far, go together. Make no mistake, climate change is the most urgent issue of our time. However, moving quickly and carelessly will serve only to re-entrench existing social, economic, political and environmental inequalities. </p>
<p>Instead, we must look at other ways of being in the world. We can repair and recreate our relationships with the Earth and the consumption that has gotten us to this point. We can <a href="https://theconversation.com/respect-for-indigenous-knowledge-must-lead-nature-conservation-efforts-in-canada-156273">pay attention and listen to global Indigenous peoples and others who have cared for this earth for millennia</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-change-theatre-and-performances-reveal-new-narratives-about-how-we-need-to-live-219366">COP28: Climate change theatre and performances reveal new narratives about how we need to live</a>
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<p>We must be more creative with our solutions and committed to ensuring that all, and not just a privileged few, are able to live in a better world than the one in which they were born into. Technological approaches alone will not achieve this goal. To build a better world we need the social sciences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change is often seen as solely a technical problem. This is a misguided belief. Understanding how to build a better world begins, and ends, with understanding the societies which inhabit it.Fayola Helen Jacobs, Assistant Professor of urban planning, University of MinnesotaCandis Callison, Associate professor, School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, and Institute for Critical Indigenous Studies, University of British ColumbiaElizabeth Marino, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247432024-03-07T03:34:32Z2024-03-07T03:34:32ZBig businesses will this year have to report their environmental impacts – but this alone won’t drive change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580340/original/file-20240307-24-6jfhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1690%2C0%2C4539%2C2830&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/open-pit-mine-industry-big-yellow-1521928421">Parilov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year, large businesses in Australia will likely have to begin reporting their environmental impacts, climate risks and climate opportunities. </p>
<p>The final draft of Australia’s new mandatory climate disclosure laws are due any day now, <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2024-466491">following consultation</a>. </p>
<p>These laws are meant to increase transparency about how exposed companies are to risks from climate change, and will require companies to look into and share what impact their activities have on the environment. This, the government hopes, will accelerate change in the corporate sector. </p>
<p>But will it help lower emissions? I don’t think so. We <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-carbon-tax-can-have-economic-not-just-environmental-benefits-for-australia-210380">don’t have</a> a carbon tax, which means many companies have no financial incentive to actually lower their emissions. (The strengthened Safeguard Mechanism applies to about 220 big emitters, but they can <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-unsafe-safeguard-mechanism-how-carbon-credits-could-blow-up-australias-main-climate-policy-213874">simply buy offsets</a> and avoid harder change.) </p>
<p>By themselves, climate disclosures will not trigger the change we need. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="car fleet company" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A company’s emissions and environmental impact come from many sources, from vehicle fleets to electricity use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Scharfsinn/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Why are these laws being proposed?</h2>
<p>In June 2023, the newly formed <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/groups/international-sustainability-standards-board">International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB)</a> released a set of <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/ifrs-s1-general-requirements/">sustainability standards</a> and <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/ifrs-s2-climate-related-disclosures/">climate disclosures</a>. </p>
<p>These standards have influenced Australia’s draft laws. </p>
<p>In planning mandatory corporate disclosures on climate and environment, Australia is following similar efforts overseas. In 2022, the United Kingdom began to roll out mandatory reporting on climate risks and opportunities for the largest UK companies (those with more than 500 employees and A$970 million in turnover). </p>
<p>Once the Australian legislation comes into effect, it will require large companies and asset owners to publish their climate-related risks and opportunities. </p>
<p>In the draft legislation, companies would have to evaluate and report on their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions from sources they own or control and from sources such as purchased electricity.</p>
<p>From July this year, the laws would require disclosures from companies with 500 employees, $1 billion in assets or $500 million in revenue. Over time, this would expand to medium-sized companies. From July 2027, companies with 100 employees, $25 million in assets or $50 million in revenue would have to share this information. </p>
<p>Sustainability reports will be subject to external auditing and directors would be personally liable for the accuracy of the disclosures – with one major exception.</p>
<p>For many Australian companies, it’s already proving too hard to account for <a href="https://ghgprotocol.org/corporate-value-chain-scope-3-standard">Scope 3 emissions</a> – the greenhouse gas emissions upstream and downstream in a company’s operations, such as the emissions from gas burned after we export it. </p>
<p>As these emissions occur outside a company’s direct control, accounting for them is a complex task costing time and money. Only some companies have voluntarily started to report their Scope 3 emissions in anticipation of future regulatory change.</p>
<p>The draft legislation exempts companies from the need to report Scope 3 emissions for their first year of reporting and proposes limited liability for these disclosures for a fixed three-year period. </p>
<p>This means companies can simply come up with a best-guess estimate, rather than reporting their actual Scope 3 emissions, which can make up <a href="https://www.climateleaders.org.au/documents/Scope_3_Roadmap_PUBLISHED.pdf">65–95% of their overall emissions</a>. In some sectors, such as the integrated oil and gas industry, Scope 3 emissions can comprise more than <a href="https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/scope-3-carbon-emissions-seeing/02092372761">six times the sum of Scope 1 and 2 emissions</a>. Woolworths’ Scope 3 emissions <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2024-02/Net-Zero-Integrity%E2%80%93Assesement-of-the-Net-Zero-Pledges-of-Australian-Companies.pdf">account for 94% of emissions</a>. </p>
<h2>What are disclosure laws meant to do?</h2>
<p>You can see why the government is introducing these laws. To nudge corporate Australia towards a greener future, it helps to know what impact your business has – and what risks it is exposed to. It will also be useful for investors.</p>
<p>But it will not drive rapid decarbonisation. Critics have pointed out that reporting and disclosure alone <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01174-8">will not lead</a> to a shift away from carbon-intensive business operations. Disclosures give the appearance of action rather than real action. If there are no stronger policies accompanying, disclosures act as window dressing for global financial markets. </p>
<p>Our existing policies do not require organisations to make genuine changes in terms of their emissions. Unless organisations abandon their reliance on fossil fuels and substantially decarbonise their operations, we are simply not going to get any change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-disclosures-corporations-underprepared-for-tighter-new-standards-study-of-100-companies-reveals-210737">Climate disclosures: corporations underprepared for tighter new standards, study of 100 companies reveals</a>
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<p>These laws also come with a cost. The regulatory burden and compliance costs for Australian companies will not be trivial, especially for companies which haven’t reported on climate or sustainability before. </p>
<p>We already have a shortage of trained <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/australian-auditors-lag-on-climate-risk-disclosure-expert-warns-20200402-p54gfy">reporting, auditing and assurance professionals</a> able to do climate and environment work, following years of minimal action on climate change in Australia. To fix this will require substantial and rapid upskilling. </p>
<p>These costs should give us pause. It’s worth thinking through how much emphasis we place on disclosures to drive change versus policies that would actually drive change, such as mandating that large companies have to reduce their direct emissions 10% a year.</p>
<p>Australian companies can only benefit from these laws if they use the data unearthed by disclosure <a href="https://www.climateleaders.org.au/documents/Scope_3_Roadmap_PUBLISHED.pdf">to rethink</a> how they operate, invest and green their supply chains towards sustainability. This may mean <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264999318304619">investing</a> in clean technology, shifting from polluting transport fleets to electric, or reconsidering how they produce their products. </p>
<p>And to do that, of course, companies will need to see supportive government policies. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="LNG export ship" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Should gas exporters track the scope 3 emissions when their product is burned for power overseas?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-drone-ultra-wide-panoramic-photo-2137586843">Aerial-motion/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>These laws can be useful – but not alone</h2>
<p>Assuming the laws pass, big companies will begin assessing and reporting their emissions and environmental impact from July this year. </p>
<p>In doing so, Australia will align itself with international efforts for more transparency. Requiring companies to scrutinise and disclose their environmental impact will give corporate leaders the data needed to look for greener ways to run their business. But this assumes they have the interest and time to do so. </p>
<p>This isn’t a quick fix for climate change. To be worth the cost, Australia will need to link climate-related financial disclosures to clear policies designed to bring down emissions. </p>
<p>Disclosure policies produce disclosures. Emission reduction policies produce emission reductions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sec-approves-first-us-climate-disclosure-rules-why-the-requirements-are-much-weaker-than-planned-and-what-they-mean-for-companies-224923">SEC approves first US climate disclosure rules: Why the requirements are much weaker than planned and what they mean for companies</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martina Linnenluecke receives funding from the Australian Research Council and from UTS in the form of a Strategic Research Accelerator Grant.</span></em></p>Will it make a difference when companies have to track and report emissions and environmental impact? Only if policies with teeth follow.Martina Linnenluecke, Professor of Environmental Finance at UTS Business School, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249232024-03-06T21:23:18Z2024-03-06T21:23:18ZSEC approves first US climate disclosure rules: Why the requirements are much weaker than planned and what they mean for companies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580240/original/file-20240306-25-rfxv2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1958%2C11%2C5185%2C3482&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Companies face new rules for disclosing their climate-related risks.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/panoramic-aerial-shot-of-steaming-oil-refinery-royalty-free-image/908141180">halbergman/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After two years of intense public debate, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the nation’s <a href="https://www.sec.gov/files/33-11275-fact-sheet.pdf">first national climate disclosure rules</a> on March 6, 2024, setting out requirements for publicly listed companies to report their climate-related risks and in some cases their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>The new rules are much weaker than <a href="https://theconversation.com/sec-proposes-far-reaching-climate-disclosure-rules-for-companies-heres-where-the-rules-may-be-vulnerable-to-legal-challenges-179534">those originally proposed</a>. Significantly, the SEC dropped a controversial plan to require companies to report Scope 3 emissions – emissions generated throughout the company’s supply chain and customers’ use of its products.</p>
<p>The rules do require larger companies to disclose Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which are emissions from their operations and energy use. But those disclosures are required only to the extent that the company believes the information would be financially “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/240.12b-2#:%7E:text=The%20term%20%E2%80%9Cmaterial%2C%E2%80%9D%20when,or%20sell%20the%20securities%20registered.">material</a>” to a reasonable investor’s decision making.</p>
<p>More broadly, the new rules require publicly listed companies to disclose climate-related risks that are likely to have a material impact on their business, as well as disclose how they are managing those risks and any related corporate targets.</p>
<p><iframe id="0j9Uw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0j9Uw/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>After announcing its initial proposal in 2022, the SEC received a <a href="https://www.sec.gov/comments/climate-disclosure/cll12.htm">staggering number of comments</a> from experts, companies and the public – about 24,000 of them, the most ever received for an SEC rule. The comments reflected both strong public interest in being informed about corporate climate-risk exposures and greenhouse gas emissions and also significant pushback, particularly over how much the rules would cost companies. Several Republican state attorneys general <a href="https://ago.wv.gov/Documents/Q0658792.pdf">threatened to sue</a>. </p>
<p>In response to the comments, the commissioners took their time to adjust the disclosure requirements, but the <a href="https://thehill.com/business/4513407-nine-states-file-legal-challenge-to-sec-climate-disclosure-rule/">legal challenges may not be over</a>.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://warrington.ufl.edu/directory/person/7627/">specialize in sustainable finance and corporate governance</a> and have been following the SEC’s climate disclosure plans. Here are some of the major issues that led to this change and the implications of the new disclosure rules as they phase in starting in 2025.</p>
<h2>The rule’s unequal cost to companies</h2>
<p>The most important reason for adding climate disclosure rules, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-remarks-ceres-investor-briefing-041222">as SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has noted</a>, is that climate-related risks and greenhouse gas emissions appear to be financially material information demanded by investors. </p>
<p>Indeed, for the past several years, large institutional investors have been vocal about the need for more transparency and consistency in corporate climate-risk disclosures.</p>
<p>As the SEC has often emphasized, most large companies already disclose some of this information voluntarily in their sustainability <a href="https://www.pwc.com/sk/en/environmental-social-and-corporate-governance-esg/esg-reporting.html">or ESG reports</a>, which often are published alongside their annual reports.</p>
<p><iframe id="RrVke" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RrVke/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Since investors seem to demand this information, and many companies are voluntarily providing it, the SEC and proponents argued that it would be <a href="https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-remarks-ceres-investor-briefing-041222">sensible to mandate some consistency</a> in disclosures.</p>
<p>However, much of the debate around the new disclosure rule has focused on whether it passes the cost-benefit smell test. In other words, would the compliance cost borne by firms potentially outweigh the financial benefits of mandated disclosures of climate risks and emissions that investors might value?</p>
<p>The compliance costs of federal disclosure requirements have been estimated to be substantial. When the SEC first proposed the rule in 2022, the commission’s own estimates implied that disclosure-related <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fight-brews-over-cost-of-sec-climate-change-rules-11652779802">compliance costs would nearly double</a> for the average publicly listed company.</p>
<p>Comments on the rule have since pointed out that <a href="https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-10-22/s71022-20132304-302836.pdf">there are also likely to be even greater indirect costs</a> related to adjustments that companies might have to make in how they conduct their operations. These costs might also have broader implications for employment in certain jobs and sectors.</p>
<p>Given that many smaller listed companies do not have voluntary disclosure practices in place, the burden is also expected to hit companies unequally, disproportionately affecting smaller companies while large corporations see little impact.</p>
<h2>Measuring greenhouse emissions isn’t simple</h2>
<p>Another practical problem lies in enforcing consistent measurement of emissions and climate-risk exposure.</p>
<p>International groups such as the <a href="https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/">Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures</a> and the <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/groups/international-sustainability-standards-board/">International Sustainability Standards Board</a> have provided reporting standards and guidelines. But the measurements themselves are still subject to estimation and collection problems that might vary across industries and activities.</p>
<p>Moreover, estimating Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions separately presents significant challenges.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Lists of examples of Scope 1, 2, 3 emissions sources with an illustration of a factory in the center" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450130/original/file-20220304-13-727hza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions involve.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/why-companies-should-be-required-to-disclose-their-scope-3-emissions/">Chester Hawkins/Center for American Progress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In particular, the difficulty of measuring a company’s indirect emissions from its supply chain – Scope 3 emissions – exponentially compounds the estimation problem. Reporting Scope 3 emissions also opens a floodgate of legal issues, as many smaller organizations in a large company’s value chain might have no legal obligation to disclose their own emissions.</p>
<p>The backlash over the challenges inherent in measuring Scope 3 emissions led to the commission’s decision to pare back that part of its proposed rules.</p>
<p>Many companies will also likely have to outsource the estimation and quantification of emissions and climate risks to third-party companies, where there have been concerns about higher costs, conflicts of interest and greenwashing.</p>
<h2>How SEC stacks up to California, EU rules</h2>
<p>The SEC is not the first to adopt climate disclosure rules.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://blogs.law.columbia.edu/climatechange/2023/12/15/a-comparative-analysis-of-the-secs-climate-disclosure-proposal/">similar rule went into effect in the European Union</a> in January 2024. </p>
<p>California has <a href="https://theconversation.com/exxon-apple-and-other-corporate-giants-will-have-to-disclose-all-their-emissions-under-californias-new-climate-laws-that-will-have-a-global-impact-214630">an even more stringent rule</a>, signed into law in October 2023. It will require both publicly listed and privately held firms to fully and unconditionally disclose all of Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions when it goes into effect in 2026 and 2027. Since California is among the world’s largest economies, its regulations are already expected to have wide effects on corporations around the world.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xjSk7wWJG6o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">SEC Chairman Gary Gensler discusses what the SEC has to do with climate change.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hardcore <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/sec-climate-rules-risk-legal-battle-with-environmental-groups">proponents of the SEC rule</a> who wanted California-level disclosures across the board argue that Scope 3 emissions need to be disclosed given that they compose the largest fraction of all carbon emissions.</p>
<p>Skeptics of the rule, including two of the five SEC commissioners, question whether there needs to be any rule at all if things are inevitably watered down anyway. </p>
<p>Given the recent conservative <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/the-latest-dirty-word-in-corporate-america-esg-9c776003">backlash against companies focusing on ESG</a> issues and the ensuing <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3ce06a6f-f0e3-4f70-a078-82a6c265ddc2">retrenchment by several institutional investors</a> from their previous climate commitments, it will be interesting to see how the new corporate climate disclosures will actually affect investors’ and corporations’ decisions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224923/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sehoon Kim does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate disclosure rules are meant to help investors understand their risks, but they come with costs for companies, as a finance scholar explains.Sehoon Kim, Assistant Professor of Finance, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244952024-03-05T21:19:45Z2024-03-05T21:19:45ZThe Anthropocene is not an epoch − but the age of humans is most definitely underway<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580004/original/file-20240305-26-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C180%2C5727%2C3599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Human influence on the climate started even before the Industrial Revolution.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/factoryscape-in-the-potteries-smoke-from-chimneys-in-the-news-photo/1036135896?adppopup=true">Print Collector/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When people talk about the “Anthropocene,” they typically picture the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-anthropocene-a-very-short-introduction-9780198792987?cc=us&lang=en&">vast impact human societies are having</a> on the planet, from <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/Media-Release-Global-Assessment">rapid declines in biodiversity</a> to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">increases in Earth’s temperature</a> by burning fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Such massive planetary changes did not begin all at once at any single place or time.</p>
<p>That’s why <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-the-anthropocene-start-in-1950-or-much-earlier-heres-why-debate-over-our-world-changing-impact-matters-209869">it was controversial</a> when, after over a decade of study and debate, an international committee of scientists – <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/">the Anthropocene Working Group</a> – proposed to mark the Anthropocene as an epoch in the <a href="https://stratigraphy.org/chart#latest-version">geologic time scale</a> starting precisely in 1952. The marker was radioactive fallout from hydrogen bomb tests.</p>
<p>On March 4, 2024, the commission responsible for recognizing time units within our most recent period of geologic time – the <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/">Subcommission on Quarternary Stratigraphy</a> – rejected that proposal, with 12 of 18 members voting no. These are the scientists most expert at reconstructing Earth’s history from the evidence in rocks. They determined that adding an Anthropocene Epoch – and terminating the Holocene Epoch – was not supported by the standards used to define epochs.</p>
<p>To be clear, this vote has no bearing on the overwhelming evidence that human societies are indeed transforming this planet.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://ges.umbc.edu/ellis/">an ecologist who studies global change</a>, I served on the <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/">Anthropocene Working Group</a> from its start in 2009 until 2023. <a href="https://anthroecology.org/why-i-resigned-from-the-anthropocene-working-group/">I resigned</a> because I was convinced that this proposal defined the Anthropocene so narrowly that it would damage broader scientific and public understanding. </p>
<p>By tying the start of the human age to such a recent and devastating event – nuclear fallout – this proposal risked sowing confusion about the deep history of how humans are transforming the Earth, from climate change and biodiversity losses to pollution by plastics and tropical deforestation.</p>
<h2>The original idea of the Anthropocene</h2>
<p>In the years since the term Anthropocene was coined by Nobel Prize-winning <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/15445/2023/">atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen</a> in 2000, it has increasingly defined our times as an age of human-caused planetary transformation, from climate change to biodiversity loss, plastic pollution, megafires and much more.</p>
<p>Crutzen originally proposed that the Anthropocene began in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/415023a">latter part of the 18th century</a>, as a product of the Industrial age. He also noted that setting a more precise start date would be “<a href="https://www.mpic.de/3865097/the-anthropocene">arbitrary</a>.” </p>
<p>According to geologists, we humans have been living in the Holocene Epoch for about 11,700 years, since the end of the last ice age. </p>
<p>Human societies began influencing Earth’s biodiversity and climate through agriculture <a href="https://cligs.vt.edu/blog/climate-change--a-new-twist-on-a-very-old-story.html">thousands of years ago</a>. These changes began to accelerate about five centuries ago with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthropocene-began-with-species-exchange-between-old-and-new-worlds-38674">colonial collision of the old and new worlds</a>. And, as Crutzen noted, Earth’s climate really began to change with the increasing use of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/history-of-Europe/The-Industrial-Revolution">fossil fuels in the Industrial Revolution</a> that began in the late 1700s.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A chart reflecting timing of the ‘Anthropocene Event’ shows how various human activities have affected the planet over mlllennia in the recent geologic time scale. Click the image to enlarge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3416">Philip Gibbard, et al., 2022</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Anthropocene as an epoch</h2>
<p>The rationale for proposing to define an Anthropocene Epoch starting around 1950 came from overwhelming evidence that many of the most consequential changes of the human age shifted upward dramatically about that time in a so-called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019614564785">Great Acceleration” identified by climate scientist Will Steffen</a> and others. </p>
<p>Radioisotopes like plutonium from hydrogen bomb tests conducted around this time left clear traces in soils, sediments, trees, corals and other potential geological records across the planet. The plutonium peak in the sediments of Crawford Lake in Ontario, Canada – <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-the-anthropocene-start-in-1950-or-much-earlier-heres-why-debate-over-our-world-changing-impact-matters-209869">chosen as the “golden spike</a>” for determining the start of the Anthropocene Epoch – is well marked in the lake bed’s exceptionally clear sediment record. </p>
<h2>The Anthropocene Epoch is dead; long live the Anthropocene</h2>
<p>So why was the Anthropocene Epoch rejected? And what happens now?</p>
<p>The proposal to add an Anthropocene Epoch to the geological time scale was rejected for a variety of reasons, none of them related to the fact that human societies are changing this planet. In fact, the opposite is true. </p>
<p>If there is one main reason why geologists rejected this proposal, it is because its recent date and shallow depth are too narrow to encompass the deeper evidence of human-caused planetary change. As geologist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa7297">Bill Ruddiman and others wrote in Science Magazine in 2015</a>, “Does it really make sense to define the start of a human-dominated era millennia after most forests in arable regions had been cut for agriculture?”</p>
<p>Discussions of an Anthropocene Epoch aren’t over yet. But it is very unlikely that there will be an official Anthropocene Epoch declaration anytime soon.</p>
<p>The lack of a formal definition of an Anthropocene Epoch will not be a problem for science. </p>
<p>A scientific definition of the Anthropocene is already widely available in the form of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3416">the Anthropocene Event</a>, which basically defines Anthropocene <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104340">in simple geological terms</a> as “a complex, transformative, and ongoing event analogous to the Great Oxidation Event and others in the geological record.”</p>
<p>So, despite the “no” vote on the Anthropocene Epoch, the Anthropocene will continue to be as useful as it has been for more than 20 years in stimulating discussions and research into the nature of human transformation of this planet. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated to clarify that a new attempt at an official Anthropocene Epoch declaration is unlikely soon.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erle C. Ellis is a former member of the Anthropocene Working Group of the International Commission on Stratigraphy. He is a member of the American Association of Geographers.</span></em></p>Scientists have been debating the start of the Anthropocene Epoch for 15 years. I was part of those discussions, and I agree with the vote rejecting it.Erle C. Ellis, Professor of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240492024-03-05T14:01:24Z2024-03-05T14:01:24ZPublishing Taylor Swift’s flight information: Is it stalking or protected free speech?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579690/original/file-20240304-51556-7v39u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Taylor Swift, flanked by security guards and Donna Kelce, mother of her boyfriend, Travis Kelce, appears at the Super Bowl in February 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mapi.associatedpress.com/v2/items/528216703c8548edb732773004b4aed9/preview/AP24043163440642.jpg?wm=api&tag=app_id=1,user_id=904438,org_id=101781">Julio Cortez/AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/jack-sweeney/?sh=bc38f2170831">Jack Sweeney, a junior at the University of Central Florida</a>, says the First Amendment gives him the right to <a href="https://twitter.com/Jxck_Sweeney">publish publicly available</a> information about the flight paths of private jets owned by the rich and famous – including Taylor Swift. </p>
<p>Swift’s legal team – and <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/taylor-swift-jack-sweeney-elon-musk-private-jet-flights-1867604">many of her fans</a> – say that Sweeney posting the comings and goings of the singer’s private plane on social media is technological stalking.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.news-journalonline.com/story/news/2024/02/07/jack-sweeney-taylor-swift-legal-track-private-jets/72505276007/">Sweeney also tracks the private planes</a> owned or used by Elon Musk, Ron DeSantis, Mark Zuckerburg, Bill Gates, several Russian oligarchs and others, using public data from a global flight tracking website, TheAirTraffic.com. </p>
<p>I am an attorney and a <a href="https://lynngreenky.com/">scholar who has written</a> about the <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/W/bo156864042.html">boundaries of the First Amendment</a>.</p>
<p>My advice to Mr. Sweeney: The First Amendment is a valuable ally, but its protections might not be available to you in this situation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blonde woman wears a sequin bodysuit and holds a microphone in one hand. She raises her arm and shows off her muscles." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579688/original/file-20240304-26-axeg2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579688/original/file-20240304-26-axeg2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579688/original/file-20240304-26-axeg2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579688/original/file-20240304-26-axeg2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579688/original/file-20240304-26-axeg2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579688/original/file-20240304-26-axeg2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579688/original/file-20240304-26-axeg2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taylor Swift performs in Inglewood, Calif., on the Eras Tour on Aug. 7, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1584249148/photo/taylor-swift-performs-during-the-eras-tour-concert-at-sofi-stadium.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=MB2QbNqs8F6MnRY6xXg_qWlfsqEoV2g8xP-iXFfo9cM=">Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The arguments, explained</h2>
<p>Since December 2023, Swift’s attorneys have sent Sweeney <a href="https://www.news-journalonline.com/story/news/2024/02/07/jack-sweeney-taylor-swift-legal-track-private-jets/72505276007/">multiple cease-and-desist</a> letters demanding that he stop sharing the real-time and precise information about Swift’s plane’s location. The most recent letter that has been made public accuses Sweeney of “<a href="https://time.com/6692227/taylor-swift-cease-desist-letter-jack-sweeney-jet-tracker-emissions/">intentional, offensive, and outrageous conduct</a>” that threatens her safety and well-being. </p>
<p>Swift’s attorneys warn Sweeney that if he continues to publish her private travel information, she will seek legal action against him. </p>
<p>Sweeney, who is 21 years old, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/college-student-tracks-elon-musk-jet-forbes-30-under-30-2023-11">has gained fame, and perhaps a fortune</a>, over the past few years with this work. He has several hundred thousand followers across multiple social media platforms, including Instagram, Mastodon, Discord, Telegram, X – formerly known as Twitter – and Threads.</p>
<p>Sweeney argues that he is merely reposting public information as a matter of public interest. Sweeney also believes the public has a <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/6/24063220/taylor-swift-jet-public-data-social-media">right to know</a> that Swift and others are “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68248168">trying to hide the bad PR of (carbon) emissions</a>.” </p>
<p>Sweeney insists that his passion for the environment adds constitutional protection to his activities.</p>
<p>Sweeney is correct that the First Amendment offers robust protection to political speech. Over and over again, the Supreme Court has reminded Americans that protecting <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2010/09-751">political speech is necessary for a strong democracy</a> – but even the shield of political speech has its limits.</p>
<p>The First Amendment does not protect <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2002/01-1107">speech that could further a crime</a>. Speech that terrorizes another person, causing them to fear for their life, can be prosecuted. It is no defense that the speaker <a href="https://casetext.com/case/planned-parenthood-v-amer-coalition-of-life">was trying to make a political point</a>.</p>
<h2>The trail of digital data</h2>
<p>Technology makes the act of gathering information easier than ever before. </p>
<p>Corporations and tech-savvy private citizens like Sweeney can forage through the depths of the digital world, finding and publishing information that most people would rather keep confidential. </p>
<p>Today, <a href="https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/us-data-privacy-guide">though there are some state and federal privacy protections in place</a>, anyone willing to pay for the data can usually learn about people’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/blog/state-of-privacy-laws-in-us/">buying habits</a> or even where they live, work and play. </p>
<p>Dozens of unregulated companies collect this personal information and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/19/opinion/location-tracking-cell-phone.html">log people’s movements via mobile phones</a>. They then store that information in large data files.</p>
<p>Sweeney claims his First Amendment right to publish information about others is as vast as his technological ability to gather personal information about celebrities and other high-profile people. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1756462148136403257"}"></div></p>
<h2>Tread carefully</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.justice.gov/ovw/stalking">The Department of Justice defines stalking</a> as “a course of conduct directed at a specific person that would cause a reasonable person to fear for his or her safety or the safety of others or suffer substantial emotional distress.” </p>
<p>If a court determines that Sweeney is stalking Swift – which legally is considered conduct, not speech – his assertion that he is exercising his First Amendment right will not transform his act of publishing flight information into protected speech.</p>
<p>Sometimes, an action or a certain behavior is intended to communicate a message. For example, people have <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1968/21">worn black armbands</a> in the <a href="https://www.aclu.org/documents/tinker-v-des-moines-landmark-supreme-court-ruling-behalf-student-expression">past to protest the Vietnam War</a>. People also have publicly <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1988/88-155">burned the American flag</a> to show their disapproval of different political decisions or policies.</p>
<p>Wearing an armband and burning the American flag are not illegal activities, so the First Amendment protects the messages attached to these behaviors. </p>
<p>But if someone’s behavior used to communicate a message is unlawful or harmful, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1967/232">the First Amendment will not protect the speaker</a>. In other words, a messenger can be held responsible for any conduct that causes harm, even if the behavior was intended as a form of speech.</p>
<p>Sweeney has not been prosecuted or sued for stalking anybody, so no court has determined if he has indeed engaged in that behavior. But if, as Swift contends, <a href="https://www.news-journalonline.com/story/news/2024/02/06/jet-tracker-taylor-swift-ucf-jack-sweeney-social-media-twitter-x-reddit-mastadon-bluesky/72491332007/">Sweeney’s actions are simply a more sophisticated form of stalking</a>, the First Amendment will not transform his behavior into protected speech. </p>
<p>So, Mr. Sweeney, back to my advice: Tread carefully. </p>
<p>Technology is powerful, but so is people’s right to be free from terror and harm. The First Amendment may not be available to you to defend your behavior even if you cloak it in political speech.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224049/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lynn Greenky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A college junior who has gained a following by sharing high-profile people’s private flight information says that he is sharing public information. Others, like Taylor Swift, say that he is stalking.Lynn Greenky, Professor Emeritus of Communication and Rhetorical Studies, Syracuse UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247452024-03-04T19:22:07Z2024-03-04T19:22:07ZIn a dangerously warming world, we must confront the grim reality of Australia’s bushfire emissions<p>In the four years since the Black Summer bushfires, Australia has become more focused on how best to prepare for, fight and recover from these traumatic events. But one issue has largely flown under the radar: how the emissions produced by bushfires are measured and reported. </p>
<p>Fires comprised 4.8% of <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2">total global emissions in 2021</a>, producing about <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/12/siberia-america-wildfires-emissions-records-2021/">1.76 billion tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide (CO₂). This <a href="https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2023?vis=co2tot#emissions_table">exceeds the emissions</a> of almost all individual countries except the biggest emitters of China, the United States, India and Russia.</p>
<p>It’s crucial to accurately track the greenhouse gas emissions bushfires produce. However, the modelling and reporting of bushfire emissions is a complex, poorly understood area of climate science and policy. </p>
<p>The University of Tasmania recently brought together leading scientists and policymakers to discuss Australia’s measuring and reporting of bushfire emissions. The resulting <a href="https://www.utas.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/1697841/Measuring-and-reporting-bushfire-emissions.pdf">report</a>, just released, shows where Australia must improve as we face a fiery future.</p>
<h2>Getting a read on bushfire emissions</h2>
<p>By the end of this century, the number of extreme fire events around the world is expected to increase by <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/number-wildfires-rise-50-2100-and-governments-are-not-prepared">up to 50% a year</a> as a direct result of human-caused climate change.</p>
<p>Emissions from bushfires fuels global warming – which in turn makes bushfires even more destructive. Estimating these emissions is a complicated and technical task, but it is vital to understanding Australia’s carbon footprint.</p>
<p>Australia reports on emissions from bushfires according to rules defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as part of our responsibilities under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>Countries estimate bushfire emissions in different ways. Some rely on default data provided by the UNFCCC. In contrast, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2021-volume-1.pdf">Australia’s modelling</a> combines the area of burned land with highly specific local data on the types of fuel burned (such as leaves, bark and dead wood) and the amount of <a href="https://research.csiro.au/pyropage/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2017/04/CSIRO-PyroPage-Issue-10-GHG-Emissions.pdf">different types of gas</a> these fuels emit. This makes it among the most sophisticated approaches in the world.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-fire-alert-has-knocked-australians-out-of-complacency-under-climate-change-catastrophic-bushfires-can-strike-any-time-224636">Victoria's fire alert has knocked Australians out of complacency. Under climate change, catastrophic bushfires can strike any time</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>More transparency is needed</h2>
<p>Australia’s modelling may be sophisticated but it can also be confusing – even for those who follow climate policy closely. One reason is the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2021-volume-1.pdf">complex way</a> we differentiate between “natural” fires (those beyond human control) and “anthropogenic” or human-caused fires such as controlled fuel-reduction burns. </p>
<p>Emissions from natural fires are reported to the UNFCCC, but do not initially count towards Australia’s net emissions calculations. This is consistent with <a href="https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/4_Volume4/V4_01_Ch1_Introduction.pdf">guidance</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</p>
<p>However, we believe that to improve transparency and accountability, the federal government should work with the states and territories to provide a separate breakdown of natural and human-caused fire emissions. This data should be made publicly available to provide a clearer picture of bushfire emissions and the impact of climate change on large fires.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-is-a-chemical-reaction-heres-why-australia-is-supremely-suited-to-it-217275">Fire is a chemical reaction. Here's why Australia is supremely suited to it</a>
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</p>
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<h2>Where we must improve</h2>
<p>As mentioned above, emissions from natural fires do not initially count towards Australia’s net calculations. Consistent with other countries, our modelling assumes that emissions will be offset after the fires because forest regrowth captures carbon from the atmosphere. </p>
<p>This approach is based on current scientific evidence. For example, within two years of the Black Summer fires, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-22/are-megafires-contributing-to-climate-change/103219876">80% of the burned area</a> was almost fully recovered. </p>
<p>If monitoring of a fire site shows regrowth has not fully offset emissions after 15 years, the difference is retrospectively added to Australia’s net emissions for the year of the original fire.</p>
<p>But this approach may soon need to change. That’s because research <a href="https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13021-023-00231-3">sugests</a> we cannot assume forests will recover quickly after bushfires. As bushfires become more frequent and intense, they are more likely to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12433">irrevocably change</a> landscapes. Bushfires are also more likely to occur in areas that are not adapted to fire and recover poorly – such as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2016.19308">Tasmania’s World Heritage-listed northwest</a>. </p>
<p>This has major implications for Australia’s emissions accounting.</p>
<p>Another significant gap in our modelling is the contribution of soil carbon to bushfire emissions. Large amounts of carbon are present in organic material in soil.</p>
<p>Currently, international rules do not require soil carbon emissions from fire to be estimated. This is despite emerging research showing the release of <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/pdf/WF22204">soil carbon</a> during bushfires in some landscapes, such as peatlands, is likely to create substantial emissions. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24668">Other research</a> suggests that depleted soil carbon can slow the recovery of forests after fire.</p>
<p>There is currently insufficient evidence to include soil carbon emissions from bushfires in Australia’s estimates, or to model the effects of soil carbon changes on forest regrowth and carbon capture. More research is urgently needed.</p>
<h2>Where to now?</h2>
<p>Australia’s approach to estimating bushfire emissions is credible and sophisticated. However, our modelling and reporting must be refined as technology improves and the climate changes. </p>
<p>Australia is a fire-prone continent. Our bushfire emissions will increase unless we significantly improve our fire preparedness and management. We must also rapidly reduce emissions from other sectors, to ensure our country is playing its part in the struggle to avoid catastrophic global warming.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224745/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s approach to estimating bushfire emissions is credible and sophisticated. But it must be refined as technology improves and the climate changes.Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLachlan Johnson, Research fellow, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239602024-02-25T19:09:48Z2024-02-25T19:09:48ZA ‘war on red meat’? No, changes to Australian dietary guidelines are just a sensible response to Earth’s environmental woes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577506/original/file-20240223-24-czbzv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5599%2C3732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Official dietary advice in Australia <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/eating-green-ideology-official-diet-advice-to-warn-of-climate-impact/news-story/7deeaf36dea21fcc8a443e006312e42d">is set to warn</a> of the climate impact of certain foods. The move has raised the ire of farmers, meat producers and others who branded it “green ideology” and a “war on meat”.</p>
<p>Critics say the The National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), which is behind the change, is overreaching and should not expand its remit beyond providing nutritional advice. We strongly disagree. </p>
<p>Having <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-7707-6">explored</a> the scientific evidence about the harm food can cause to both the planet and human health, we firmly believe environmental information about food choices should be prominent in dietary guidelines. </p>
<p>Human health depends on having a safe, liveable planet and the state of our planet is inextricably linked to food systems. It’s entirely sensible that consumers are informed about whether their food choices are sustainable.</p>
<h2>‘A thorough review of the evidence’</h2>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://www.eatforhealth.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/the_guidelines/n55_australian_dietary_guidelines.pdf">dietary guidelines</a> were released in 2013. The document provides general information about the environmental sustainability of food, but it’s buried in an appendix and the recommendations are fairly inconclusive.</p>
<p>The guidelines are currently under review and will be updated in 2026. The NHMRC says feedback from the public suggested sustainability information should be more accessible and explicit in the new guidelines. In fact, it said one in three people surveyed nominated the change as a priority. </p>
<p>The NHMRC says developing or updating its guidelines involves:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>a thorough review of the evidence, methodological advice on the quality of these reviews, drafting of the guidelines, public consultation and independent expert review of the final guidelines. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>It said the dietary recommendations would first consider Australia-specific health impacts, followed by sustainability and other factors – an approach in line with guidelines overseas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="assortment of fruit and vegetables" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577508/original/file-20240223-28-raav9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia’s dietary guidelines are under review.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Critics come out swinging</h2>
<p>Australians are among the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-meat-type?country=CHN%7EUSA%7EIND%7EARG%7EPRT%7EETH%7EJPN%7EBRA%7EOWID_WRL%7EESP%7EDEU%7EAUS">world’s biggest</a> meat eaters. However, recent trends indicate Australians’ beef consumption is <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/au/bed/meat-consumption/43/">in decline</a>. </p>
<p>Meat creates <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00358-x">almost 60%</a> of greenhouse gas emissions from food production, and <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaq0216">red meat has the highest</a> environmental footprint out of all food choices. </p>
<p>Perhaps unsurprisingly, the change to dietary guidelines has prompted opposition from some quarters. In a report in The Australian, for example, Red Meat Advisory Council chair John McKillop <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/eating-green-ideology-official-diet-advice-to-warn-of-climate-impact/news-story/7deeaf36dea21fcc8a443e006312e42d">said</a> the moves:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>go well beyond the policy intent of the Australian Dietary Guidelines to provide recommendations on healthy foods and dietary patterns […] [the] review process must not be allowed to be used as a vehicle to drive ideological agendas at the expense of the latest nutritional science.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He said the industry’s concerns were not related to its progress on sustainability, about which it had “a strong story” to tell.</p>
<p>The newspaper also quoted a Central Queensland cattle farmer, who said perceived misinformation about the health impacts and sustainability of red meat production were rife in the media, public policy and nutritional advice.</p>
<p>Conservative media outlets also weighed in on the changes. Sydney radio station 2GB <a href="https://www.2gb.com/war-on-meat-diet-advice-to-include-impacts-on-emissions/">declared</a> the move a “war on meat” and host Ben Fordham <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/war-on-meat-aussie-farmers-screwed-over-again-as-ben-fordham-slams-new-dietary-guidelines-which-could-soon-promote-an-ideological-climate-agenda/news-story/6f06f2101304ea898d124284d79da506">claimed</a> farmers were being “screwed over again”.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meat-and-masculinity-why-some-men-just-cant-stomach-plant-based-food-174785">Meat and masculinity: why some men just can't stomach plant-based food</a>
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</em>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="pieces of steak" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577510/original/file-20240223-24-prqgez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australians are among the world’s biggest meat eaters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The global picture</h2>
<p>The upcoming changes are not unprecedented globally. Environmental sustainability is highlighted in the official dietary guidelines of at least <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00246-7/fulltext">ten other countries</a>. They include Sweden which introduced <a href="https://www.fao.org/nutrition/education/food-dietary-guidelines/regions/countries/sweden/en/">climate-friendly food advice</a> in 2015. </p>
<p>The title of the <a href="https://www.livsmedelsverket.se/matvanor-halsa--miljo/kostrad/rad-om-bra-mat-hitta-ditt-satt">Swedish guidelines</a> translates to “Find your way to eat greener, not too much and be active!” Among the recommendations are to: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Eat less red and processed meat, no more than 500 grams a week. Only a small amount of this should be processed meat.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But other nations have struggled to include sustainability advice in official dietary guidelines. In the United States, for example, lobby groups <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/26/usda-diet-guide-myplate-climate-crisis">prevented the change</a>, despite the recommendations of government-appointed nutritionists.</p>
<h2>Dietary officials have not overreached</h2>
<p>The Australian dietary guidelines already suggest limiting red meat consumption on health grounds. </p>
<p>Research has shown <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/cutting-red-meat-for-a-longer-life">regular consumption of red meat</a>, especially if it’s processed, contributes substantially to the risk of premature death. A high intake of red meat has been <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31788-4/fulltext">associated with</a> cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, cancers and type 2 diabetes. </p>
<p>Adding information about the environmental effects of red meat health simply reinforces the benefits of eating less of it.</p>
<p>The link between food, the natural environment and health is <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4985113/">well-established</a>. Even before food is produced, vegetation is cleared to create space for crops and livestock. This leads to both the release of carbon dioxide and biodiversity loss, among other harms. </p>
<p>When it comes to meat, the digestive systems of sheep and cattle <a href="https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/dpi/climate/climate-science-and-policy/climate-policy-environment/values-of-mixed-farming-systems#:%7E:text=The%20farming%20of%20beef%20and,trapping%20heat%20in%20the%20atmosphere.">produce a lot of methane</a>, a potent greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gas emissions are also created when food is processed, transported, stored and disposed of. Food packaging contributes to pressure on landfill and creates pollution.</p>
<p>All these processes threaten human health. Researchers have <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31788-4/fulltext">called for</a> a global transformation of food systems, to ensure they operate within Earth’s limits.</p>
<p>The role of NHMRC is to protect public health in Australia. It makes sense, then, that it provides consumers with information about which foods cause the least environmental damage – and by extension, are also good for their personal health. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Excavator on forest cleared for livestock" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442869/original/file-20220127-18-167q53l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clearing land for food production is a major source of biodiversity and vegetation loss.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A rightful part of the public health agenda</h2>
<p>Dietary guidelines are a government tool to influence food consumption towards good choices. They are based on the best available evidence, and evolve along with our understanding of food and its impacts. </p>
<p>Of course, even if Australia’s guidelines are changed to incorporate environmental advice, this does not guarantee everyone will make healthy and sustainable food choices. Such a shift requires major behaviour changes, of which dietary guidelines are only one component. </p>
<p>Arming consumers with the right information about food sustainability however should be part of the federal government’s public health agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dora Marinova receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diana Bogueva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Human health depends on having a liveable planet and this is inextricably linked to food systems.Dora Marinova, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityDiana Bogueva, Research Fellow, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2218532024-02-22T19:20:21Z2024-02-22T19:20:21ZEmissions from households’ water use are on a par with aviation. The big cuts and savings they can make are being neglected<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574310/original/file-20240208-30-fmpr5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-woman-taking-shower-her-bathroom-1169109334">hedgehog94/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Why is there such a big gap between people, industries and government agreeing we need urgent action on climate change, and actually starting? Scope 3 emissions are a great example. These are greenhouse gas emissions that organisations can influence, but don’t directly control. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.monash.edu/msdi/initiatives/reports/net-zero-carbon-water-cycle">Our research</a> has identified the benefits of tackling these emissions in Australia’s urban water sector. If we consider the energy we use to heat water, water costs us far more than we think. It’s an issue of cost of living as well as water supply and energy infrastructure. </p>
<p>In Victoria, for example, water utilities are the <a href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/our-programs/climate-change-and-victorias-water-sector/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-the-water-sector">largest source</a> (about a quarter) of scope 1 and 2 emissions from the government sector. Scope 1 emissions come from activities utilities directly control, such as driving their vehicles. Scope 2 emissions are from the energy they buy. </p>
<p>Our research has found the gains from pursuing scope 3 emissions from the use of water that utilities supply could be about ten times bigger than their planned reductions in scope 1 and 2 emissions.</p>
<p>Extrapolating from Melbourne household data suggests domestic water heating accounts for <a href="https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/3532852/1.2.1-NZCWC-Synthesis-Report.pdf">3.8% of each person’s share</a> of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions – on a par with the 4.1% from aviation. <a href="https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/3532852/1.2.1-NZCWC-Synthesis-Report.pdf">Our research</a> indicates that in Melbourne alone a city-wide program to retrofit showerheads could, by reducing water and energy use, have the same impact on emissions as taking tens of thousands of cars off the road. </p>
<p>Such a program would cost much less than all other renewable energy investments water utilities are making. It would also save water users money.</p>
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<h2>How to tackle scope 3 emissions</h2>
<p>Water utilities don’t directly control scope 3 emissions, but they could influence what customers do. If they <a href="https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/3532852/1.2.1-NZCWC-Synthesis-Report.pdf">encourage more efficient water use</a>, <a href="https://www.wsaa.asn.au/sites/default/files/publication/download/Transitioning%20the%20water%20industry%20with%20the%20circular%20economy%20FINAL%2012102020.pdf">customers use less water</a> and, in turn, less energy to heat it. </p>
<p>Water utilities account for <a href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/our-programs/climate-change-and-victorias-water-sector/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-the-water-sector">24% of scope 1 and 2 emissions</a> from the Victorian government sector. While the sector has shown leadership in acting on these emissions, there is very little active accountability for, or even quantification of, scope 3 emissions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576106/original/file-20240216-22-y339jn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing the sources of stage 1 and 2 emissions from the Victorian water sector" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576106/original/file-20240216-22-y339jn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576106/original/file-20240216-22-y339jn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576106/original/file-20240216-22-y339jn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576106/original/file-20240216-22-y339jn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576106/original/file-20240216-22-y339jn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576106/original/file-20240216-22-y339jn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576106/original/file-20240216-22-y339jn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/our-programs/climate-change-and-victorias-water-sector/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-the-water-sector">Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.monash.edu/msdi/initiatives/reports/net-zero-carbon-water-cycle">Our research</a> has found a Melbourne-wide program to retrofit showerheads to next-generation technology could save 12-27 billion litres (GL) of water a year (about 6% of current use). </p>
<p>The resulting energy savings would be 380-885GWh per year, cutting emissions by 98,000-226,000 tonnes. That equates to taking 21,000 to 49,000 cars off the roads. </p>
<p>Customers would also save up to $160 a year on their bills. The full economic benefit to society is more than five times the cost of the program.</p>
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<h2>Who influences water use? Everyone</h2>
<p>Helping customers adopt highly efficient showerheads could cut emissions at much lower cost than all other renewable energy investments water utilities are making.</p>
<p>Most households don’t realise hot water systems account for around 24% of their total energy use. Their total <a href="https://www.energyrating.gov.au/industry-information/publications/report-2021-residential-baseline-study-australia-and-new-zealand-2000-2040%20output%20tables%20v1.9.2-AU">energy use for water heating</a> is larger as it includes appliances such as washing machines, dishwashers and kettles. An even larger percentage of household energy use is “water-related” if pool filtration, rainwater tank pumps and so on are included.</p>
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<p>We think only of the savings on water bills, but efficient water use also affects our power bills and emissions. But communicating the link isn’t easy. </p>
<p>Showerhead manufacturers tell us they aren’t promoting efficient showerheads because they respond to demand. Water utilities don’t invest in them because it is a present cost for a future benefit – it doesn’t help them balance their budgets. And for policymakers it’s hard to celebrate the water and energy you don’t need to consume. </p>
<p>The combined impact is lack of action on saving water to reduce emissions – even though it’s a great option.</p>
<h2>A ‘tragedy of the commons’ dilemma</h2>
<p>Without direct control or accountability by any one organisation, we face a “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/tragedy-of-the-commons">tragedy of the commons</a>” – individuals overconsuming a shared resource at the wider expense of society. The limited resource today is the ability of our planet to process greenhouse gas emissions before they change our climate. </p>
<p>The tragedy of the commons was used to describe externalities: costs borne by others that a decision-maker does not pay for. Examples include the future costs of increased flooding, more severe droughts and bushfires, and rising sea levels.</p>
<p>If we fully considered the costs and benefits to consumers and society (rather than just costs to utilities), investment priorities would change towards “least cost to the community” solutions. </p>
<p>Many water utilities will be carbon-neutral for scope 1 and 2 by 2025. This means they are at the global forefront of reducing emissions – but the water industry can do much more by tackling scope 3 emissions. </p>
<p>Committing to a scope 3 reduction challenges a water company to move toward things it can only influence rather than control. So, does it pursue all possibilities, without knowing if it can cut emissions? Or does it take a conservative approach and commit to only scope 1 and 2 emissions? </p>
<p>Reducing emissions from water use requires community, industry and government to act together. The stumbling block is decision-making and current legislation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A road runs along the top of the Thomson Dam wall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575546/original/file-20240214-20-slogv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575546/original/file-20240214-20-slogv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575546/original/file-20240214-20-slogv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575546/original/file-20240214-20-slogv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575546/original/file-20240214-20-slogv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575546/original/file-20240214-20-slogv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575546/original/file-20240214-20-slogv7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Water utilities have focused on cutting their own emissions and costs, neglecting the much bigger gains to be had from changing water users’ behaviour.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/road-over-dam-wall-722054434">Simon Maddock/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>So, what is the solution?</h2>
<p>First, we need to call out the problem. </p>
<p>Second, we must find a way to ensure the reward for pursuing action is higher than the penalty for failure. A key to this will be highlighting how much cheaper and better many actions are that focus on scope 3 emissions, rather than solely “within business” strategies. We need to find solutions that are genuinely “least cost to community” rather than “least cost to individual business entities”.</p>
<p>Third, as a “commons”, this challenge must be communicated beyond utilities and government to communities. There needs to be broad understanding of the benefits of new approaches and of the pitfalls of a “do nothing” approach.</p>
<p>Big savings are up for grabs in the water industry. More broadly, all industries (from manufacturing to mining) need to consider scope 3 emissions from use of the products they sell.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221853/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Kenway receives funding from the water industry, state and local government, Collaborative Research Centres and competitive funding schemes (eg The Australian Research Council). He is a long-term member of the Australian Water Association and former member of the International Water Association. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam Smith receives funding from several government bodies, including state water utilities and local, state and federal government environment departments. He is also a Lead Councillor on The Biodiversity Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Satur receives funding from a number of public and private associations including water utilities, federal and state governments. He is also the CEO and co-founder of Our Future Cities Inc. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Skinner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More efficient water use is one of the most cost-effective steps we can take to cut emissions.Steven Kenway, Research Group Leader, Water-Energy-Carbon, The University of QueenslandLiam Smith, Director, BehaviourWorks, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash UniversityPaul Satur, Research Fellow for Water Sensitive Cities, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash UniversityRob Skinner, Professorial Fellow, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240932024-02-22T19:00:50Z2024-02-22T19:00:50ZSide-effects of expanding forests could limit their potential to tackle climate change – new study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577038/original/file-20240221-18-mbvixi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The complex effects of planting more trees need to be taken into consideration. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-shot-above-forest-spring-season-1720654045">Mikai/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tackling climate change by planting trees has an intuitive appeal. They absorb the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the atmosphere without using expensive technology. </p>
<p>The suggestion that you can plant trees to offset your carbon emissions is <a href="https://onetreeplanted.org/blogs/stories/planting-trees-offsets-carbon">widespread</a>. Many businesses, from those selling <a href="https://eu.etnies.com/pages/buy-a-shoe-plant-a-tree">shoes</a> to <a href="https://saplingspirits.com/pages/climate-positive">booze</a>, now offer to plant a tree with each purchase, and more than 60 countries have signed up to the <a href="https://www.bonnchallenge.org">Bonn Challenge</a>, which aims to restore degraded and deforested landscapes. </p>
<p>However, expanding tree cover could affect the climate in complex ways. Using models of the Earth’s atmosphere, land and oceans, we have simulated widescale future forestation. Our <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adg6196">new study</a> shows that this increases atmospheric carbon dioxide removal, beneficial for tackling climate change. But side-effects, including changes to other greenhouse gases and the reflectivity of the land surface, may partially oppose this.</p>
<p>Our findings suggest that while forestation – the restoration and expansion of forests – can play a role in tackling climate change, its potential may be smaller than previously thought.</p>
<p>When forestation occurs alongside other climate change mitigation strategies, such as reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, the negative side-effects have a smaller impact. So, forestation will be more effective as part of wider efforts to pursue sustainable development. Trees can help fight climate change, but relying on them alone won’t be enough.</p>
<h2>What does the future hold?</h2>
<p>Future climate projections suggest that to keep warming below the Paris Agreement 2°C target, greenhouse gas emissions must reach <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-the-new-ipcc-report-says-about-how-to-limit-warming-to-1-5c-or-2c/">net-zero by the mid-to-late 21st century</a>, and become net negative thereafter. As some industries, such as aviation and shipping, will be exceedingly difficult to decarbonise fully, carbon removal will be needed. </p>
<p>Forestation is a <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/un-scales-up-climate-action-to-protect-forests">widely proposed strategy</a> for carbon removal. If deployed sustainably – by planting mixtures of native trees rather than monocultures, for instance – forestation can provide other benefits including <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0405-0">protecting biodiversity</a>, reducing soil erosion, and improving flood protection.</p>
<p>We considered an “extensive forestation” strategy which expands existing forests over the course of the 21st century in line with current proposals, adding trees where they are expected to thrive while avoiding croplands. </p>
<p>In our models, we paired this strategy with two future climate scenarios – a “minimal effort” scenario with average global warming exceeding 4°C, and a “Paris-compatible” scenario with extensive climate mitigation efforts. We could then compare the extensive forestation outcome to simulations with the same climate but where levels of forestation followed more expected trends: the minimal effort scenario sees forest cover drop as agriculture expands, and the Paris-compatible scenario features modest increases in global forest cover. </p>
<h2>Up in the air</h2>
<p>The Earth’s energy balance depends on the energy coming in from the Sun and the energy escaping back out to space. Increasing forest cover changes the Earth’s overall energy balance. Generally, changes that <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/90/3/2008bams2634_1.xml">decrease outgoing radiation cause warming</a>. The greenhouse effect works this way, as outgoing radiation is trapped by gases in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Forestation’s ability to lower atmospheric CO₂, and therefore increase the radiation escaping to space, has been <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1710465114">well studied</a>. However, the amount of carbon that could feasibly be removed remains a <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaz0111?intcmp=trendmd-sci">subject of debate</a>. </p>
<p>Forestation generally reduces land surface reflectivity (<a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abm9684?casa_token=g8hQeCQFj38AAAAA%3A-w0gwkq7kRepSJwCuW_2iqiFqh7ACXwgb4s-9kA35UgF950MUxAiwmnhbInVZWkJg_YEye1IM47ibPo">albedo</a>) as darker trees replace lighter grassland. Decreases in albedo levels oppose the beneficial reduction of atmospheric CO₂, as less radiation escapes back to space. This is particularly important <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/35041545">at higher latitudes</a>, where trees cover land that would otherwise be covered with snow. Our scenario features forest expansion primarily in temperate and tropical regions. </p>
<p>Forests emit large quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), with these emissions increasing with rising temperatures. VOCs react chemically in the atmosphere, affecting the <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/1105/2021/">concentrations of methane and ozone</a>, which are also greenhouse gases. We find the enhanced VOC emissions from greater forest cover and temperatures increase levels of methane and, typically, ozone. This reduces the amount of radiation escaping to space, further opposing the removal of carbon.</p>
<p>However, the reaction products of VOCs can <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/14/447/2014/">contribute to aerosols</a>, which reflect incoming solar radiation and help form clouds. Increases in these aerosols with rising VOC emissions from greater forest cover result in more radiation escaping to space.</p>
<p>We find the net effect of changes to albedo, ozone, methane and aerosol is to reduce the amount of radiation escaping to space, cancelling out part of the benefit of reducing atmospheric CO₂. In a future where climate mitigation is not a priority, up to 30% of the benefit is cancelled out, while in a Paris-compatible future, this drops to 15%. </p>
<h2>Cooler solutions</h2>
<p>Tackling climate change requires efforts from all sectors. While forestation will play a role, our work shows that its benefits may not be as great as previously thought. However, these negative side-effects aren’t as impactful if we pursue other strategies, especially reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, alongside forestation.</p>
<p>This study hasn’t considered local temperature changes from forestation as a result of evaporative cooling, or the impact of changes to atmospheric composition caused by changes in the frequencies and severities of wildfires. Further work in these areas will complement our research. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, our study suggests that forestation alone is unlikely to fix our warming planet. We need to rapidly reduce our emissions while enhancing the ability of the natural world to store carbon. It is important to stress-test climate mitigation strategies in detail, because so many complex systems are at play. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Weber receives funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James A. King sits on an advisory panel for Ecologi. He receives funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). </span></em></p>Planting trees to remove carbon from the atmosphere will only be effective alongside other strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.James Weber, Lecturer in Atmospheric Radiation, Composition and Climate, University of ReadingJames A. King, Research Associate in Climate Change Mitigation, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223982024-02-21T19:14:04Z2024-02-21T19:14:04ZAustralian passenger vehicle emission rates are 50% higher than the rest of the world – and it’s getting worse<p>Australian passenger vehicles are emitting 50% more carbon dioxide (CO₂) than the average of the world’s major markets. And the real-world situation is even worse than official figures show. That’s the finding of a <a href="https://theicct.org/publication/australian-ldv-co2-emissions-compare-to-the-rest-of-the-world-feb24/">new study</a> comparing the CO₂ emissions performance of cars, SUVs and light commercial vehicles in Australia and overseas. </p>
<p>The comparison suggests Australia will probably <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-big-too-heavy-and-too-slow-to-change-road-transport-is-way-off-track-for-net-zero-208655">fall well short</a> of the economy-wide 2050 <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">net-zero emission target</a> for road transport. To hit the target, policies to cut vehicle emissions have to be intensified and supported by a range of other policies. </p>
<p>This month, the Australian government <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">announced</a> options for a New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) – not to be confused with the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/transport/national-electric-vehicle-strategy">National Electric Vehicle Strategy</a> (NEVS). Each option would set a national limit on grams of CO₂ that can be emitted for each kilometre driven, averaged across all new cars sold.</p>
<p>Mandatory CO₂ emission or fuel-efficiency standards are internationally recognised as a <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_89c9da85afb74c248ef7bbaf17d86297.pdf">fundamental building block</a> to cut transport emissions. To provide further context and input to the development of an Australian standard, Australia-based Transport Energy/Emission Research (<a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/">TER</a>) and the International Council on Clean Transportation (<a href="https://theicct.org/">ICCT</a>) collaborated on a newly published <a href="https://theicct.org/pr-cuts-in-average-rw-emissions-are-stalled-for-australias-ldv-fleet-while-other-major-markets-drive-towards-zero-feb24/">briefing paper</a>. </p>
<p>The independent analysis shows the urgent need for Australia to adopt a stringent, well-designed and mandatory fuel-efficiency standard. This standard and additional policies are essential to keep up with technological advances and decarbonisation in other developed countries.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1754380447688151191"}"></div></p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-fuel-efficiency-standards-may-settle-the-ute-dispute-but-there-are-still-hazards-on-the-road-222875">Labor's fuel-efficiency standards may settle the ute dispute – but there are still hazards on the road</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How did we fall so far behind?</h2>
<p>Both fuel efficiency and emission standards aim for roughly the same thing: cutting fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In doing so, they also cut fuel costs for consumers and improve energy security.</p>
<p><a href="https://theicct.org/pv-fuel-economy/">About 85%</a> of the global light vehicle market has adopted these standards over time, in some cases decades ago. The United States, European Union, Canada, United Kingdom, Japan, China, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, New Zealand, Chile and India all have them. Australia and Russia are the two exceptions in the developed world.</p>
<p>Australia has a long history of debate about making such standards mandatory for passenger and light commercial vehicles. The federal government has released six public consultation documents since 2008, without achieving mandatory standards. This is <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">about to change</a>. </p>
<p>Australia has had voluntary standards since 1978. These targets have <a href="https://www.fcai.com.au/news/index/view/news/792">not always been met</a> due to lack of enforcement. They <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/Lightvehiclesreport.pdf">have been criticised</a> for lacking both ambition and effectiveness in reducing real-world emissions. </p>
<p>It appears the government’s <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">current proposal</a> will be more ambitious. It potentially aims to converge with US targets in 2027 – though falling short of what is being done in Europe. The Australian standard’s effectiveness in achieving genuine emission reductions and net zero emissions in 2050 will still need to be examined once the design and details are clearer.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-electric-trucks-are-our-best-bet-to-cut-road-transport-emissions-219960">Why electric trucks are our best bet to cut road transport emissions</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<h2>How does Australia compare using official figures?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theicct.org/pr-cuts-in-average-rw-emissions-are-stalled-for-australias-ldv-fleet-while-other-major-markets-drive-towards-zero-feb24/">new study</a> compared the officially reported CO₂ emissions performance of passenger and light commercial vehicles in Australia, China, the EU, Japan and the US. We found CO₂ emissions from the Australian passenger vehicles were 53% higher than the average of these major markets in 2021.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Officially reported fleet average emissions performance for new passenger vehicles, comparing Australia with four major markets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theicct.org/pr-cuts-in-average-rw-emissions-are-stalled-for-australias-ldv-fleet-while-other-major-markets-drive-towards-zero-feb24/">TER and ICCT, 2024</a></span>
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<p>Importantly, without effective action, this performance gap is expected to grow in future years. That’s because these other markets are moving to aggressively adopt standards that drive the transition to a low-or-zero-emissions vehicle fleet.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-big-too-heavy-and-too-slow-to-change-road-transport-is-way-off-track-for-net-zero-208655">Too big, too heavy and too slow to change: road transport is way off track for net zero</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How does Australia compare in reality?</h2>
<p>The official Australian figures are based on a test protocol called the New European Drive Cycle (<a href="https://coceurope.eu/blog/nedc-emission-test/">NEDC</a>). It was developed in the early 1970s. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814">main problem</a> is that the difference between NEDC test results and actual on-road emissions has <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_3051fdd1a87948d3978cb2c2de0767be.pdf">steadily increased</a>. Actual on-road emissions were estimated to be about 10% higher in 2007, growing to over 45% in 2021. </p>
<p>Indeed, the EU no longer uses the outdated NEDC protocol. It has adopted a <a href="https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/On-the-way-to-real-world-WLTP_May2020.pdf">more realistic test procedure</a>, the Worldwide Harmonised Light-Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).</p>
<p>The briefing paper used previous research into Australian and international real-world emissions performance to create a more accurate comparison. Whereas the official figures suggest newly sold Australian passenger vehicles have relatively high emissions, at least they appear to have improved each year. The picture is very different when we look at on-road emissions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Estimated real-world fleet average emissions for new passenger vehicles, comparing Australia with four major markets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theicct.org/pr-cuts-in-average-rw-emissions-are-stalled-for-australias-ldv-fleet-while-other-major-markets-drive-towards-zero-feb24/">TER and ICCT 2024</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://theicct.org/pr-cuts-in-average-rw-emissions-are-stalled-for-australias-ldv-fleet-while-other-major-markets-drive-towards-zero-feb24/">Our estimates</a> suggest emissions from newly sold Australian passenger vehicles have actually been rising since 2015. This trend is a result of <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_3051fdd1a87948d3978cb2c2de0767be.pdf">increasing vehicle size and weight</a>, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/04/australia-2023-new-car-sales-record-list-top-utes-suvs-ford-ranger-toyota-hilux">shift towards more four-wheel-drive SUVs and large utes</a>, and a lack of mandatory standards or targets.</p>
<p>The Australian real-world emissions performance is also much worse than in the four major markets. Before 2016 the average difference was around 20% higher on average. By 2021, Australian emissions were almost 50% higher for passenger vehicles. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1744453560526364983"}"></div></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814">The road to new fuel efficiency rules is filled with potholes. Here's how Australia can avoid them</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does this mean for policy?</h2>
<p>Our analysis shows both officially reported and actual on-road CO₂ emissions from new Australian light-duty vehicles are much higher than in other developed nations. The available evidence suggests this poor performance will get worse without stringent mandatory standards in place. </p>
<p>The good news is that the government is acting on the lack of an effective standard. Mandatory standards will likely be adopted this year. The <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">New Vehicle Efficiency Standard</a> is due to take effect in 2025.</p>
<p>However, the standard must be carefully designed to achieve genuine emission reductions for new vehicles. </p>
<p>For instance, the official Australian test protocol (NEDC) is outdated and increasingly underestimates on-road emissions. It provides an unrealistic and skewed picture, undermining effective emission reduction. The government says it intends to adopt a more realistic test protocol.</p>
<p>The standards should also include on-board monitoring of fuel consumption – as the EU is now doing. It’s vital to measure real-world fuel efficiency and emissions of new vehicles and to make this information public to ensure standards are achieving their goals. But the <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">latest government report</a> didn’t mention it.</p>
<p>A mandatory fuel-efficiency standard is long overdue in Australia. It can help close the performance gap between Australia and the rest of the world. So we’d better make sure it works.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222398/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Smit is the Founder of and Director at Transport Energy/Emission Research (TER), which collaborated on the briefing paper discussed in this article.</span></em></p>Australian vehicle emissions are even worse than official figures show and are likely to fall even further behind the rest of the world unless much more ambitious policies are adopted.Robin Smit, Adjunct Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2174302024-02-20T13:20:50Z2024-02-20T13:20:50ZCarbon offsets bring new investment to Appalachia’s coal fields, but most Appalachians aren’t benefiting<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571772/original/file-20240128-15-bsgb8q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C1305%2C840&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For decades, railroad tracks carried coal from eastern Tennessee to power plants in the eastern U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/appvoices/6853913378/in/album-72157629262715216/">Appalachian Voices</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Central Appalachia is home to the <a href="https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/offsets/overview.pdf">third-largest concentration of forest carbon offsets</a> traded on the California carbon market. But while these projects bring new investments to Appalachia, most people in <a href="https://doi-org.utk.idm.oclc.org/10.1080/03066150.2022.2078710">Appalachia are not benefiting</a>.</p>
<p>The effect of this new economic activity is evident in the <a href="https://storymaps.com/stories/2f4984877e0d42cdbc424d107eefc3ba">Clearfork Valley</a>, a forested region of steep hills and meandering creeks on the Kentucky-Tennessee border. </p>
<p>Rural communities here once relied on coal mining jobs. As the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2021.100990">mines shut down</a>, with the last closing <a href="https://opensourcecoal.org/df_coal_production.php">in 2022</a>, the valley was left with thousands of acres of forests and strip-mined land but fewer ways to make a good living.</p>
<p><iframe id="AacNw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AacNw/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Today, corporate landowners and investment funds have placed most of that forest land into carbon offset projects – valuing the trees for their ability to absorb carbon dioxide emissions to help protect the climate. </p>
<p>These <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-firm-makes-a-1-8-billion-bet-on-forest-carbon-offset-11667390624">carbon offset projects can be lucrative</a> for the landowner, with proceeds that can run into the millions of dollars. Companies subject to California’s carbon emissions rules are willing to pay projects like these to essentially <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/compliance-offset-program">cancel out, or offset</a>, the companies’ carbon emissions. However, my research shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2022.2078710">few local residents</a> are benefiting. </p>
<p>The projects are part of <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2021-04/losing-ground-final-4-15-21.pdf">a wider</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12210">growing trend</a> of investor-owners of rural land making money but providing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2017.1328305">little local employment, local investment or community involvement</a> in return.</p>
<h2>Few local jobs, little economic benefit</h2>
<p>The rise of carbon forest offset projects in Appalachia has coincided with the historic decline of the coal economy. </p>
<p>Central Appalachia lost 70% of its coal jobs from 2011 to 2023 as its <a href="https://opensourcecoal.org/df_coal_production.php">coal production fell by 75%</a> in that same period. As corporate landowners looked for new revenue streams, they found a burgeoning forest carbon offset market after California instituted a <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program/about">forest carbon offset protocol</a> in 2011.</p>
<p>Much of the Clearfork Valley was originally owned by the American Association, a British coal corporation that <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p009853">accumulated the land in the 1880s</a>. That property passed between other coal companies before NatureVest, a <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/who-we-are/how-we-work/finance-investing/naturevest/">climate change-driven investment firm</a> owned by The Nature Conservancy, created an investment fund to purchase the land in 2019. </p>
<p>The previous owner, a forestland investment company, had established carbon offsets on that land in 2015, making <a href="https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/protocols/usforest/forestprotocol2015.pdf">a 125-year commitment</a> to retain or grow the forest carbon stock. When NatureVest purchased the land in 2019, it generated <a href="https://www.environmental-finance.com/content/awards/sustainable-investment-awards-2020/winners/impact-fund-of-the-year-the-nature-conservancys-sustainable-forestry-fund.html">at least US$20 million in proceeds</a> from the sale of additional offsets. The details of <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program/program-data/summary-market-transfers-report">such transactions are typically private</a>, but offset sales can be structured in a number of ways. They might be one-time payments for existing credits, for example, or futures contracts for the potential of additional credits.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map shows large areas of forest in several states that are on the carbon market." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571770/original/file-20240128-25-lydydm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forest carbon offset projects in Central Appalachia that are on the California carbon market. The Clearfork Valley is on the Kentucky-Tennessee border in the lower left.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://webmaps.arb.ca.gov/ARBOCIssuanceMap/">California Air Resources Board, ESRI</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The investment fund is attempting to demonstrate that <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/united-states/kentucky/stories-in-kentucky/cumberland-forest">managing land to help protect the climate</a> can also generate revenue for investors. </p>
<p>In Appalachia, offset projects largely involve “improved forestry management.” These offsets <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16380">pay landowners to sequester</a> carbon in trees – additional to what they would have pulled in without the offset payment – while still allowing them to produce timber for sale. In practice, this often means letting trees stand for <a href="https://www.nature.org/content/dam/tnc/nature/en/documents/VA-Carbon-Sequestration-Infographic.pdf%22%22">longer rotations before cutting for timber</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00984-2">Recent research</a>, however, indicates that the carbon storage of improved forestry management projects may be getting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15943">overcounted on the California market</a>, the largest compliance offset market in the Americas. <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/insider-4-reasons-why-jurisdictional-approach-redd-crediting-superior-project-based">Other approaches to carbon offsets</a> could produce better outcomes for people and the climate.</p>
<p>And while the landowners and investors profit, my research, including dozens of interviews with residents, has also found that former mining <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2022.2078710">communities in this valley have seen little return</a>. </p>
<p>The Nature Conservancy has offered <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/priority-landscapes/appalachians/stories/cumberland-forest-community-fund/">support to local communities</a>. But while the organization operates <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/priority-landscapes/appalachians/stories/cumberland-forest-community-fund/">a small grant program</a> from coal mining and gas drilling royalties it receives from the land, the investment in the local economy has been relatively small – <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/priority-landscapes/appalachians/stories/cumberland-forest-community-fund/">roughly $377,000</a> in the three states since 2019. Furthermore, while <a href="https://mtassociation.org/energy/middlesboro-community-center-adds-solar/">some communities have benefited</a>, these investments <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/priority-landscapes/appalachians/stories/cumberland-forest-community-fund/">have largely bypassed</a> struggling former coal communities in the Clearfork Valley in Tennessee. </p>
<p>Looking for other revenue sources on these lands, by 2022, The Nature Conservancy had also leased access to nearly <a href="https://www.nature.org/content/dam/tnc/nature/en/documents/Cumberland_Forest_2022_Impact_Report.pdf">150,000 acres of its Cumberland Forest Project</a>, including parts of the Clearfork Valley, to state agencies and outdoor recreation groups. As a result, permits and fees are often now required to enter much of the forestland.</p>
<p>As one interviewee told my co-author for our forthcoming book, “For three generations my family has been able to walk and use that land, but now I could be arrested for entering it without a permit.” </p>
<h2>The rise of TIMOs and climate ‘rentierism’</h2>
<p>While a century ago many of the landowners in Appalachia were coal companies and timber companies, today <a href="https://wvpolicy.org/who-owns-west-virginia-in-the-21st-century-2/">they are predominantly</a> <a href="https://doi-org.utk.idm.oclc.org/10.1177/0896920510378764">financialized timber investment management organizations, or TIMOs</a>. TIMOs are financial institutions that manage timberlands to generate returns for institutions, such as endowments and pension funds, and private investors. While NatureVest is more diversified than a TIMO, its timberland investments operate in a similar fashion.</p>
<p>The financial ownership of timberlands is part of the much wider trend of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/SER/mwi008">financialization of the United States economy</a>. Wall Street-based investors have become major owners of all sectors of the U.S. economy since the 1970s, from <a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501750083/fields-of-gold/">agriculture</a> and <a href="https://www.scielo.br/j/gp/a/JdQdqWNHdn67pNLCJvkmnFr/?lang=en">manufacturing</a> to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ruso.12210">natural resources</a>.</p>
<p>Financial profits, however, often do not entail job creation or investments in infrastructure in the surrounding communities. Yet the investor-owned timberlands in Central Appalachia do generate <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-firm-makes-a-1-8-billion-bet-on-forest-carbon-offset-11667390624">millions of dollars in revenue for their investors</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The hills above a home have been strip mined, where forests once stood." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571771/original/file-20240128-29-8ffil5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Homes below a coal strip mine in Campbell County, Tennessee, home to part of the Clearfork Valley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/appvoices/7000037829/in/album-72157629262715216/">Appalachian Voices via Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Political economists have diagnosed the trend of falling employment that accompanies increasing economic activity as partially the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/705396">result of growing rentierism</a>.</p>
<p>Rentierism is a term for <a href="https://doi-org.utk.idm.oclc.org/10.1177/0308518X19873007">generating income predominantly from rents</a> as opposed to income from production that employs people. Rural communities have acutely felt the effects of <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/products/871-rentier-capitalism">increasing rentierism in various sectors since the 1970s</a>.</p>
<p>Researchers have noted <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0896920510378764">growing trends of rentierism in forestland management</a>. Many TIMOs seek new revenue streams from timberlands outside of wood products and timbering, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2017.1328305">such as in conservation easements</a>. As firms such as <a href="https://c3newsmag.com/private-capital-is-funding-conservation-across-the-country/">NatureVest seek to generate income from controlling carbon stocks or conservation resources</a>, there is now a growing climate rentierism.</p>
<h2>Rural resentment and a crisis of democracy</h2>
<p>A robust body of research in <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691191669/the-left-behind">sociology</a> and <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=759xDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT8&ots=yOy_PiDU9P&sig=u67Pv8JrCjPN2c3DaHORhJgVXi4#v=onepage&q&f=false">political science</a> shows how the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2019.10.045">hollowing out of rural North American economies</a> has fed into a kind of <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo22879533.html">rural resentment</a>. Trust in government and democracy is particularly low in rural North America, and not only because of economic woes. As <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300215359/for-profit-democracy/">sociologist Loka Ashwood documents</a>, it is also because many rural residents believe that the government helps corporations profit at the expense of people.</p>
<p>Carbon offsets in Appalachia, unfortunately, fit within these troubling trends. Government regulation in California generates sizable revenue for corporate landowners, while the rural communities see themselves locked out of the economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217430/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabe Schwartzman received funding from the National Science Foundation. He is a board member of the Southern Connected Communities Project (SCCP), a non-profit based in East Tennessee, and former board member of Statewide Organizing for Community eMpowerment (SOCM). </span></em></p>Large parts of Appalachia’s forests, once owned by coal companies, now make money for investors by storing carbon. But the results bring few jobs or sizable investments for residents.Gabe Schwartzman, Assistant Professor of Geography and Sustainability, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233512024-02-18T19:51:21Z2024-02-18T19:51:21Z‘Green’ or ‘blue’ hydrogen – what difference does it make? Not much for most Australians<p>Hydrogen can play a key role in Australia’s energy transition by giving us additional ways of storing and moving energy around. As the world shifts towards cleaner energy production, there’s a push to make hydrogen production cleaner as well. In Australia, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy.pdf">low-emission hydrogen</a> is produced in two main ways. </p>
<p>One method produces what is known as “green hydrogen”. It uses electricity produced from renewables – such as solar, wind or hydro – to “crack” water into separate streams of hydrogen and oxygen. </p>
<p>The other method produces “blue hydrogen”. This process separates the hydrogen from a gas mixture obtained from fossil fuels (coal or natural gas), using carbon-capture technologies to deal with the emissions. </p>
<p>While different colours are used to describe these methods, the resulting product is the same: colourless hydrogen. Both methods are technically viable options. </p>
<p>So, we wanted to know what the public thinks about these approaches. Understanding people’s attitudes in more detail will help scientists, industry and governments to develop hydrogen technologies in a way that aligns with community values and expectations.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652624005985#sec3">Our survey</a> found only a slight difference in public attitudes to the two methods when they were described without the colour “labels”. The method of production had little impact on people’s willingness to accept different uses of hydrogen.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1756936282511401307"}"></div></p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hyped-and-expensive-hydrogen-has-a-place-in-australias-energy-transition-but-only-with-urgent-government-support-219004">Hyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support</a>
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<h2>Why do we need to know what people think about hydrogen?</h2>
<p>There is a focus on <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/fuels/hydrogen/Hydrogen-Roadmap">scaling up the hydrogen industry</a> for many purposes, including transport, heating and industrial uses, in Australia and overseas. </p>
<p>Although there are plans for many new uses, such as powering vehicles, hydrogen has had industrial uses for a long time. At present, it’s mainly used to make other chemicals, such as ammonia for nitrogen fertiliser. However, most of this hydrogen is produced globally using fossil fuels, which emits carbon. </p>
<p>Now attention has turned to producing low-emission hydrogen. Past research has shown Australians are “<a href="https://www.futurefuelscrc.com/wp-content/uploads/FFCRC_RP2.1-02_Public-perceptions-of-hydrogen_National-survey-report_June2021Final.pdf">cautiously optimistic</a>” about hydrogen’s potential as a future fuel. We wanted to explore attitudes to the two low-emission production methods more closely.</p>
<p>Understanding public attitudes is key to promoting <a href="https://research.csiro.au/ri/">responsible innovation</a> for the benefit of all Australians.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-electric-trucks-are-our-best-bet-to-cut-road-transport-emissions-219960">Why electric trucks are our best bet to cut road transport emissions</a>
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<h2>How was the survey done?</h2>
<p>We asked a representative sample of 1,900 Australians to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652624005985#sec3">share their thoughts</a>
about living near a hypothetical hydrogen hub – a site where hydrogen is stored, transported and used locally. Participants were told the hydrogen would be produced nearby (200 kilometres away). </p>
<p>We wanted to investigate the effect of the “green” and “blue” production methods on acceptance. To avoid introducing bias, we only explained the technical process of each production method. We did not describe them using colours. Half of the participants were told the hydrogen was produced using one method and half were told about the other method. </p>
<p>Because many Australians aren’t aware of hydrogen technologies, we consulted technical <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/about/challenges-missions/Hydrogen">experts here at CSIRO</a> so we could provide relevant information about the production methods and their potential impacts. Participants were also shown a short video introduction to hydrogen (shown below) at the start of the survey. </p>
<p>We then asked a serious of questions to assess beliefs, attitudes and levels of support for the production methods and various uses of hydrogen.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LEgbmmIogss?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Survey participants were shown this animated video.</span></figcaption>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-hydrogen-could-be-a-game-changer-by-displacing-fossil-fuels-we-just-need-the-price-to-come-down-205636">Green hydrogen could be a game changer by displacing fossil fuels – we just need the price to come down</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>A slight preference for ‘green’</h2>
<p>Participants who were told the hydrogen was produced using renewable energy – “green” hydrogen – had, on average, a more positive attitude to it than those presented with hydrogen made from fossil fuels with carbon-capture technology – “blue” hydrogen. However, the difference between the two groups’ overall appraisal of the production methods was quite small.</p>
<p>We also explored the beliefs that underpin these attitudes. Despite some differences in beliefs between the two groups, many of these differences were again quite small. And there were no differences in the perceived influence on cost of living and wealth creation. </p>
<p>The largest difference between the groups was the perceived replaceability of the technology. Blue hydrogen was seen as the more replaceable approach. People also reported blue hydrogen as having a worse impact on climate change and competing more with renewable electricity production. </p>
<h2>What is the impact on acceptance of hydrogen?</h2>
<p>The small differences of opinion about production methods had little influence on people’s willingness to accept different uses of hydrogen. For example, knowing a bus was fuelled by blue hydrogen had a relatively weak effect on how willing people said they’d be to use a hydrogen bus. For most hydrogen applications presented, support was quite neutral regardless of how it was made. </p>
<p>Further analysis showed that people with stronger pro-environmental attitudes were more supportive of green hydrogen. Those with weaker pro-environmental attitudes were more supportive of blue hydrogen. </p>
<p>These results suggest that, to some extent, people’s broader worldviews shape their evaluations of production methods. Although blue hydrogen aims to address carbon emissions, it seems those who strongly value environmental preservation see blue hydrogen as less likely than green hydrogen to achieve this goal. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-australia-to-lead-the-way-on-green-hydrogen-first-we-must-find-enough-water-196144">For Australia to lead the way on green hydrogen, first we must find enough water</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Neither method is strongly opposed</h2>
<p>Our research shows there is no strong opposition to either hydrogen production method at this stage. </p>
<p>Results suggest the hydrogen industry will need to address concerns that blue hydrogen technology might need to be replaced sooner rather than later. There is also a need to be clear about its impact on the environment and potential to compete with power from renewables.</p>
<p>Despite these concerns, it seems the production method is not holding back hydrogen acceptance at this stage. As the industry grows, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319923020451">current public beliefs</a> suggest it will be increasingly important to demonstrate that using hydrogen is safe and effective, and won’t compete with other renewable energy technologies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are two approaches to producing low-emission hydrogen, and public acceptance (or rejection) of each method will be important for hydrogen and its place in the energy transition.Mitchell Scovell, Research Scientist, CSIROAndrea Walton, Social Scientist, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234882024-02-16T16:07:23Z2024-02-16T16:07:23ZAI has a large and growing carbon footprint, but there are potential solutions on the horizon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575971/original/file-20240215-26-d8wa2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3834%2C2160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/futuristic-concept-data-center-chief-technology-2200880615">Gorodenkoff / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Given the huge problem-solving potential of artificial intelligence (AI), it wouldn’t be far-fetched to think that AI could also help us in <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-ai-could-help-us-respond-to-climate-change-despite-how-much-energy-it-uses-208135">tackling the climate crisis</a>. However, when we consider the energy needs of AI models, it becomes clear that the technology is as much a part of the climate problem as a solution.</p>
<p>The emissions come from the infrastructure associated with AI, such as building and running the data centres that handle the large amounts of information required to sustain these systems.</p>
<p>But different technological approaches to how we build AI systems could help reduce its carbon footprint. Two technologies in particular hold promise for doing this: <a href="https://research.ibm.com/publications/spiking-neural-networks-enable-two-dimensional-neurons-and-unsupervised-multi-timescale-learning">spiking neural networks</a> and lifelong learning.</p>
<p>The lifetime of an AI system can be split into two phases: training and inference. During training, a relevant dataset is used to build and tune – improve – the system. In inference, the trained system generates predictions on previously unseen data.</p>
<p>For example, training an AI that’s to be used in self-driving cars would require a dataset of many different driving scenarios and decisions taken by human drivers.</p>
<p>After the training phase, the AI system will predict effective manoeuvres for a self-driving car. <a href="https://www.ibm.com/topics/neural-networks">Artificial neural networks (ANN)</a>, are an underlying technology used in most current AI systems. </p>
<p>They have many different elements to them, called parameters, whose values are adjusted during the training phase of the AI system. These parameters can run to more than 100 billion in total.</p>
<p>While large numbers of parameters improve the capabilities of ANNs, they also make training and inference resource-intensive processes. To put things in perspective, training GPT-3 (the precursor AI system to the current ChatGPT) generated 502 metric tonnes of carbon, which is equivalent to driving 112 petrol powered cars for a year. </p>
<p>GPT-3 further emits <a href="https://semiengineering.com/ai-power-consumption-exploding/">8.4 tonnes of CO₂ annually</a> due to inference. Since the AI boom started in the early 2010s, the energy requirements of AI systems known as large language models (LLMs) – the type of technology that’s behind ChatGPT – have gone up <a href="https://openai.com/research/ai-and-compute">by a factor of 300,000</a>. </p>
<p>With the increasing ubiquity and complexity of AI models, this trend is going to continue, potentially making AI a significant contributor of CO₂ emissions. In fact, our current estimates <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/12/05/1084417/ais-carbon-footprint-is-bigger-than-you-think/">could be lower than AI’s actual carbon footprint</a> due to a lack of standard and accurate techniques for measuring AI-related emissions.</p>
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<img alt="Chimneys at a power station." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576022/original/file-20240215-16-uqga7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576022/original/file-20240215-16-uqga7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576022/original/file-20240215-16-uqga7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576022/original/file-20240215-16-uqga7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576022/original/file-20240215-16-uqga7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576022/original/file-20240215-16-uqga7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576022/original/file-20240215-16-uqga7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-high-smoke-stack-emission-1871428867">Leonid Sorokin / Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Spiking neural networks</h2>
<p>The previously mentioned new technologies, spiking neural networks (SNNs) and lifelong learning (L2), have the potential to lower AI’s ever-increasing carbon footprint, with SNNs acting as an energy-efficient alternative to ANNs. </p>
<p>ANNs work by processing and learning patterns from data, enabling them to make predictions. They work with decimal numbers. To make accurate calculations, especially when multiplying numbers with decimal points together, the computer needs to be very precise. It is because of these decimal numbers that ANNs require lots of computing power, memory and time. </p>
<p>This means ANNs become more energy-intensive as the networks get larger and more complex. Both ANNs and SNNs are inspired by the brain, which contains billions of neurons (nerve cells) connected to each other via synapses. </p>
<p>Like the brain, ANNs and SNNs also have components which researchers call neurons, although these are artificial, not biological ones. The key difference between the two types of neural networks is in the way individual neurons transmit information to each other. </p>
<p>Neurons in the human brain communicate with each other by transmitting intermittent electrical signals called spikes. The spikes themselves do not contain information. Instead, the information lies in the timing of these spikes. This binary, all-or-none characteristic of spikes (usually represented as 0 or 1) implies that neurons are active when they spike and inactive otherwise. </p>
<p>This is one of the reasons for <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/neuroscience/articles/10.3389/fnins.2019.00666/full">energy efficient processing in the brain</a>.</p>
<p>Just as Morse code uses specific sequences of dots and dashes to convey messages, SNNs use patterns or timings of spikes to process and transmit information. So, while the artificial neurons in ANNs are always active, SNNs consume energy only when a spike occurs. </p>
<p>Otherwise, they have closer to zero energy requirements. SNNs <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.06530">can be up to 280 times</a> more energy efficient than ANNs.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I are <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.03.535317v1.abstract">developing learning algorithms for SNNs</a> that may bring them even closer to the energy efficiency exhibited by the brain. The lower computational requirements also imply that SNNs <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10191334">might be able to make decisions more quickly</a>. </p>
<p>These properties render SNNs useful for broad range of applications, including space exploration, <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.16748">defence</a> and self-driving cars because of the limited energy sources available in these scenarios.</p>
<h1>Lifelong learning</h1>
<p>L2 is another strategy for reducing the overall energy requirements of ANNs over the course of their lifetime that we are also working on. </p>
<p>Training ANNs sequentially (where the systems learn from sequences of data) on new problems causes them to forget <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0079742108605368?via%3Dihub">their previous knowledge</a> while learning new tasks. ANNs require retraining from scratch when their operating environment changes, further increasing AI-related emissions. </p>
<p>L2 is a collection of algorithms that enable AI models to be trained sequentially on multiple tasks with little or no forgetting. L2 enables models to <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.16748">learn throughout their lifetime</a> by building on their existing knowledge without having to retrain them from scratch.</p>
<p>The field of AI is growing fast and other potential advancements are emerging that can mitigate the energy demands of this technology. For instance, building smaller AI models that exhibit the same predictive capabilities as that of a larger model. </p>
<p>Advances in quantum computing – a different approach to building computers that harnesses phenomena from the world of quantum physics – would also enable faster training and inference using ANNs and SNNs. The superior computing capabilities offered by quantum computing could allow us to find energy-efficient solutions for AI at a much larger scale.</p>
<p>The climate change challenge requires that we try to find solutions for rapidly advancing areas such as AI before their carbon footprint becomes too large.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shirin Dora does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Technological approaches could help reduce the carbon impact of artificial intelligence systems.Shirin Dora, Lecturer, Computer Science, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081352024-02-13T16:37:59Z2024-02-13T16:37:59ZFour ways AI could help us respond to climate change – despite how much energy it uses<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574980/original/file-20240212-26-7p58kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7612%2C4159&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tropical-dense-forest-environmental-technology-wide-2203611343">Metamorworks/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Advanced AI systems are coming under <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-ai-boom-could-use-a-shocking-amount-of-electricity/">increasing critcism</a> for how much energy they use. But it’s important to remember that AI could also contribute in various ways to <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3485128#Bib0239">our response to climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Climate change can be broken down into several smaller problems that must be addressed as part of an overarching strategy for adapting to and mitigating it. These include identifying sources of emissions, enhancing the production and use of renewable energy and predicting calamities like floods and fires. </p>
<p>My own research looks at how AI can be harnessed for predicting greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fdata.2022.822573/full">from cities</a> and <a href="https://repository.ifipaiai.org/abstracts/2023/AIAI/AIAI206771.html">farms</a> or
to understand changes in <a href="https://www.climatechange.ai/papers/icml2021/3">vegetation, biodiversity</a> and <a href="https://www.climatechange.ai/papers/icml2021/9">terrain</a> from satellite images.</p>
<p>Here are four different areas where AI has already managed to master some of the smaller tasks necessary for a wider confrontation with the climate crisis.</p>
<h2>1. Electricity</h2>
<p>AI could help reduce energy-related emissions by more accurately <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?hl=en&volume=32&publication_year=2016&pages=1094-1102&journal=International+Journal+of+Forecasting&issue=3&author=Romain+Juban&author=Henrik+Ohlsson&author=Mehdi+Maasoumy&author=Louis+Poirier&author=J.+Zico+Kolter&title=A+multiple+quantile+regression+approach+to+the+wind,+solar,+and+price+tracks+of+GEFCom2014">forecasting</a> energy supply and demand. </p>
<p>AI can learn patterns in how and when people use energy. It can also accurately forecast how much energy will be generated from sources like wind and solar depending on the weather and so help to maximise the use of clean energy.</p>
<p>For example, by estimating the amount of solar power generated from panels (based on sunlight duration or weather conditions), AI can help plan the timing of laundry or charging of electric vehicles to help consumers <a href="https://uk.pcmag.com/smart-home/137197/the-best-smart-home-devices-for-2021">make the most of this renewable energy</a>. On a grander scale, it could help grid operators pre-empt and mitigate gaps in supply.</p>
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<img alt="A woman hanging out white clothes on a laundry line." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574979/original/file-20240212-21-vp9d9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574979/original/file-20240212-21-vp9d9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574979/original/file-20240212-21-vp9d9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574979/original/file-20240212-21-vp9d9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574979/original/file-20240212-21-vp9d9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574979/original/file-20240212-21-vp9d9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574979/original/file-20240212-21-vp9d9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">AI can help make the most of renewable energy when it is abundant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dried-laundry-503768179">Kazoka/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210670720305461">Researchers in Iran</a> used AI to predict the energy consumption of a research centre by taking account of its occupancy, structure, materials and local weather conditions. The system also used algorithms to optimise the building’s energy use by proposing appropriate insulation measures and heating controls and how much lighting and power was necessary based on the number of people present, ultimately reducing it by 35%.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-is-supposed-to-make-us-more-efficient-but-it-could-mean-we-waste-more-energy-220990">AI is supposed to make us more efficient – but it could mean we waste more energy</a>
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<h2>2. Transport</h2>
<p>Transport accounts for roughly <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-transport">one-fifth of global CO₂ emissions</a>. AI models can encourage green travel options by suggesting the most efficient routes for drivers, with fewer hills, less traffic and constant speeds, and so minimise emissions.</p>
<p>An AI-based system suggested routes for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261520304549">electric vehicles</a> in the city of Gothenburg, Sweden. The system used features like vehicle speed and the location of charging points to find optimal routes that minimised energy use.</p>
<h2>3. Agriculture</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?hl=en&publication_year=2015&author=Paul+Hawken&title=Drawdown:+The+Most+Comprehensive+Plan+Ever+Proposed+to+Reverse+Global+Warming">Studies</a> have shown that better farming practices can reduce emissions. AI can ensure that space and fertilisers (which contribute to climate change) are used sparingly.</p>
<p>By predicting how much of a crop people will buy in a particular market, AI can help producers and distributors minimise waste. A 2017 study <a href="https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/11172">conducted by Stanford University</a> in the US even showed that advanced AI models can predict county-level soybean yields.</p>
<p>This was possible using images from satellites to analyse and track the growth of crops. Researchers compared multiple models to accurately predict crop yields and the best performing one could predict a crop’s yield based on images of growing plants and other features, including the climate. </p>
<p>Knowing a crop’s probable yield weeks in advance can help governments and agencies plan alternative means of procuring food in advance of a bad harvest.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wicker baskets filled with purple acai fruit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574977/original/file-20240212-26-2oayl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574977/original/file-20240212-26-2oayl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574977/original/file-20240212-26-2oayl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574977/original/file-20240212-26-2oayl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574977/original/file-20240212-26-2oayl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574977/original/file-20240212-26-2oayl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574977/original/file-20240212-26-2oayl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Accurate yield predictions can better prepare countries for food shortages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/acai-small-superfruit-brazilian-amazon-very-104384573">JBK/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>4. Disaster management</h2>
<p>The prediction and management of disasters is a field where AI has made major contributions. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/14/7547">AI models</a> have studied images from drones to predict flood damage in the Indus basin in Pakistan.</p>
<p>The system is also useful for detecting the onset of a flood, helping with real-time rescue operation planning. The system could be used by government authorities to plan prompt relief measures. </p>
<p>These potential uses don’t erase the problem of AI’s energy consumption, however, To ensure AI can be a force for good in the fight against climate change, something will still have to be done about this.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lakshmi Babu Saheer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From making journeys more fuel-efficient to reducing food waste.Lakshmi Babu Saheer, Director of Computing Informatics and Applications Research Group, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231772024-02-12T19:09:29Z2024-02-12T19:09:29ZOne of NZ’s most contentious climate cases is moving forward. And the world is watching<p>In recent weeks, the Supreme Court of New Zealand has delivered a <a href="https://www.courtsofnz.govt.nz/assets/cases/2024/2024-NZSC-5.pdf">landmark decision</a> on a case brought by Māori elder Mike Smith against a group of New Zealand’s largest corporate greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court overturned lower court rulings which had struck out Smith’s ambitious claim seeking to establish civil (tort) liability for those emitters’ contributions to climate change. Smith argued these contributions had a negative impact on his family’s and tribe’s land, water and cultural values.</p>
<p>With the Supreme Court decision, Smith has won the right to present his full case before the High Court. </p>
<p>While only the beginning of what could be a long legal process, the Supreme Court’s decision has attracted local and international attention as one that “<a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/508603/mike-smith-s-case-against-major-nz-emitters-garners-international-interest-lawyer-says">may open a new avenue in climate law</a>”.</p>
<h2>The case against the corporate emitters</h2>
<p>In 2019, Smith sued seven New Zealand-based corporate entities in his capacity as an elder of the Ngāpuhi and Ngāti Kahu iwi (tribes) and climate change spokesperson for a national forum of tribal leaders. </p>
<p>The defendants include New Zealand’s largest company <a href="https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en.html">Fonterra</a> (responsible for around 30% of the world’s dairy exports), along with other corporate entities involved in industries either directly emitting GHGs or supplying fossil fuels such as oil, gas or coal. </p>
<p>Smith argued the activities and effects of the corporate defendants amount to three forms of “tort” or civil wrong: public nuisance, negligence, and a new form of civil wrong described as a “proposed climate system damage tort”.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/childrens-climate-change-case-at-the-european-court-of-human-rights-whats-at-stake-151417">Children's climate change case at the European Court of Human Rights: what's at stake?</a>
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<p>The first two causes of action – public nuisance and negligence – have long lineages in the common law. </p>
<p>As touched on in the Supreme Court decision, public nuisance claims were used by claimants affected by various forms of pollution and other harm during the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century. </p>
<p>Many of the leading common law tort cases – especially on public nuisance – were decided well before the emergence of modern scientific understanding and consensus on climate change. </p>
<p>A major issue for the Supreme Court (and now the High Court, where this claim will proceed) was whether longstanding rules and principles of tort liability should be adjusted in light of the contemporary, existential challenges presented by climate change. </p>
<p>This might involve adapting established tort categories of public nuisance and negligence. It might also involve fashioning an entirely new “climate system damage” tort.</p>
<p>A key plank of the corporate emitters’ argument was that the courts “are ill-suited to deal with a systemic problem of this nature with all the complexity entailed”. They argued the courts should leave those inherently political issues to the politicians. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court rejected that argument. Unless parliament has, through statute, clearly displaced civil obligations – and the court found that it had not – a judicial pathway is “open for the common law to operate, develop and evolve”.</p>
<h2>The challenges of establishing causation</h2>
<p>Questions of causation and proximity have been <a href="https://www.ejiltalk.org/a-guide-to-tackling-the-collective-causation-problem-in-international-climate-change-litigation/">stumbling blocks for litigants overseas</a> attempting to bring similar tort claims to Smith’s. </p>
<p>Defendants typically argue it is impossible to show the global emission contributions of a small group of even relatively large entities can be evidentially linked to the climate-related harm experienced by plaintiffs. In this case, the seven corporate emitters are associated with around 30% of total New Zealand emissions. </p>
<p>However, New Zealand contributes less than 0.2% of global emissions. As the High Court judge put it, “the defendants’ contribution to […] global emissions is minute”. To accept Smith’s claim “would be to expose (them) to an undue burden of legal responsibility, way beyond their contribution to damaging global greenhouse gas emissions”.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-peruvian-farmer-is-trying-to-hold-energy-giant-rwe-responsible-for-climate-change-the-inside-story-of-his-groundbreaking-court-case-218408">A Peruvian farmer is trying to hold energy giant RWE responsible for climate change – the inside story of his groundbreaking court case</a>
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<p>The Supreme Court did not agree that the challenges of causation or proximity necessarily doom Smith’s case to failure. The court suggested that there may be scope for adjusting the causation rules to better reflect the nature of modern environmental issues like climate change. </p>
<p>Smith’s position (in part) is that instead of requiring litigants to prove that damage to their land and resources is directly attributable to the activities of one or more corporate emitters, the legal test should be adjusted to establish civil liability if defendants have materially contributed to the global problem. </p>
<p>But the Court didn’t think these difficult questions could be resolved without a full trial.</p>
<h2>What role for tikanga and where now?</h2>
<p>An important dimension of the case which distinguishes it from similar proceedings overseas is the relevance of a body of indigenous custom, law and practice known as “<a href="https://www.otago.ac.nz/maori/world/tikanga/lore">tikanga Māori</a>”. </p>
<p>Recent Supreme Court <a href="https://www.lawcom.govt.nz/our-work/tikanga-maori/">decisions</a> have accepted and applied tikanga as the “first law of New Zealand” including in relation to environmental protection.</p>
<p>The Court followed that approach in this case, accepting that crucial aspects of Smith’s case rely on tikanga principles. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-research-shows-ancestral-maori-adapted-quickly-in-the-face-of-rapid-climate-change-194155">New research shows ancestral Māori adapted quickly in the face of rapid climate change</a>
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<p>Smith is not just suing on his own behalf, “but as a kaitiaki (carer) acting on behalf of the whenua (land), wai (freshwater) and moana (sea) – distinct entities in their own right”. The court pronounced that “addressing and assessing matters of tikanga simply cannot be avoided”.</p>
<p>With Smith’s claim having been reinstated, the parties now return to the High Court. Unless there is legislative intervention, the normal pretrial steps of discovery, evidence exchange and preparation will proceed. It promises to be one of New Zealand’s hardest fought and most closely watched private law climate cases.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223177/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vernon Rive has previously received funding from the New Zealand Law Foundation. </span></em></p>By allowing a case against local greenhouse gas emitters to go ahead, the Supreme Court of New Zealand has opened the door to a new front in climate law – one that takes tikanga Māori into account.Vernon Rive, Associate professor, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225612024-02-07T13:11:48Z2024-02-07T13:11:48ZBiden’s ‘hard look’ at liquefied natural gas exports raises a critical question: How does natural gas fit with US climate goals?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573502/original/file-20240205-30-63bf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3784%2C2623&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A heat exchanger and transfer pipes at Dominion Energy's Cove Point LNG Terminal in Lusby, Md.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChesapeakeBayLNGExports/60c6ff33c115496fb821bf89276bd5e9/photo">AP Photo/Cliff Owen</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Biden administration has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">frozen pending decisions</a> on permit applications to export liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to countries other than <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/trade/priority-issues/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements">U.S. free trade partners</a>. During this pause, which will last for up to 15 months, the administration has pledged to take a “hard look” at economic, environmental and national security issues associated with exporting LNG.</em> </p>
<p><em>Environmental advocates, who have expressed alarm over the rapid growth of U.S. LNG exports and their effects on Earth’s climate, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-pauses-approval-new-lng-export-projects-win-climate-activists-2024-01-26/">praised this step</a>. Critics, including energy companies and members of Congress, argue that it threatens <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/europe-faces-the-chill-as-biden-freezes-new-lng-export-permits">European energy security</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/cornyn-freezing-lng-exports-threatens-texas-jobs-18645141.php">energy jobs in the U.S.</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3RI02dcAAAAJ&hl=en">Emily Grubert</a>, associate professor of sustainable energy policy at the University of Notre Dame and a former official at the U.S. Department of Energy, explains why large-scale LNG exports raise complex questions for U.S. policymakers.</em></p>
<h2>Is the US a major LNG supplier?</h2>
<p>The U.S. is now <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60582">the world’s largest LNG exporter</a>. In November 2023, the most recent month with full data, the U.S. exported <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_m.htm">about 390 billion cubic feet</a> of LNG, a record high. </p>
<p>The U.S. has been a net exporter since 2017, with export volumes now equal to about 15% of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm">our domestic consumption</a>. This gas sells for higher prices than natural gas delivered domestically, but it also costs more to process and deliver. As of 2022, the U.S. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_a.htm">provided 20%</a> of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57000">total global LNG exports</a>.</p>
<iframe title="The US is the world's top supplier of liquefied natural gas" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-ftIk0" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ftIk0/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="500" data-external="1"></iframe>
<h2>Are there plans for exporting even more LNG?</h2>
<p>The U.S. Energy Administration projects that North American LNG export capacity – largely from the U.S. – is likely to <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60944">more than double</a> from its current level by the end of 2027. In the U.S., five LNG export terminals are currently under construction, and are not affected by the current pause. </p>
<p>Applications for <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/media/us-lng-export-terminals-existing-approved-not-yet-built-and-proposed">additional export terminals</a> are under review. These are the applications for which decisions have been <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">temporarily paused</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing nine proposed new LNG plants in coastal Texas and Louisiana." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Proposed North American LNG export terminals as of July 5, 2022. Except for terminals in Alaska, Maryland and Georgia, most U.S. LNG infrastructure is already concentrated along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-10/7.%20LNG%20Maps%207-5-2022%20-%20Exports_ds.pdf">U.S. Department of Energy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How does LNG fit into a transition away from fossil fuel?</h2>
<p>LNG, and natural gas in general, has an uneasy place in the decarbonization transition. Natural gas is a fossil fuel. Burning it produces carbon dioxide that <a href="https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php">contributes to climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, natural gas that has been processed for use is essentially pure methane, which is itself a greenhouse gas. When natural gas leaks to the atmosphere from sources like wells, pipelines or processing plants, it adds to climate change. Since the mid-1800s, human activities – mainly, burning fossil fuel – have raised Earth’s temperature by roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 Celsius) above preindustrial levels. Methane has <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf603">caused about 0.9 degrees F (0.5 C) of that warming</a> above preindustrial global temperatures. </p>
<p>LNG is not a transition away from fossil fuel – it is a fossil fuel. Hypothetically, substituting LNG for more carbon-intensive fuels, like coal or other natural gas supplies with higher methane emissions, could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near term. </p>
<p>But there’s debate over <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71ba">how much LNG is actually useful in that context</a>, especially when it comes to whether LNG would actually prompt switching from coal to gas, and if so, whether the long-term lock-in of fossil gas use is worth it. Meanwhile, investing in new LNG infrastructure means either committing to operate these facilities for years, or planning to <a href="https://energy.mit.edu/news/energy-transition-could-leave-fossil-energy-producers-and-investors-with-costly-stranded-assets/">strand expensive assets</a> by retiring them early. </p>
<p>LNG terminals also have significant local impacts. In addition to methane, they emit large quantities of other air pollutants, including <a href="https://thelensnola.org/2023/05/26/groups-seek-federal-intervention-for-lng-company-they-deem-air-permit-offender/">nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds</a>. Tanker traffic to and from them can <a href="https://www.ehn.org/lng-environmental-justice-2666656588.html">damage marshes and waterways</a>. Building more terminals, especially in areas where energy facilities <a href="https://lailluminator.com/2023/03/20/sacrifice-zone-gulf-coast-helps-meet-global-natural-gas-needs-but-at-what-cost/">are already concentrated</a>, raises important health and environmental justice concerns.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. LNG export boom could offer economic benefits, but also local and global environmental damage from producing, shipping and consuming natural gas.</span></figcaption>
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<p>A transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will require a commitment to actually shift away from fossil fuel. In my view, it’s not clear that deploying LNG will achieve this goal unless it’s done with an explicit plan and mechanism to ensure that the gas is only used where it is actually needed and can support an emissions phaseout.</p>
<h2>What do you think this policy review should consider?</h2>
<p>As I see it, the most important step is to develop a coherent national strategy for the role of natural gas in the U.S. energy system, consistent with the Biden administration’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/04/20/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-catalyze-global-climate-action-through-the-major-economies-forum-on-energy-and-climate/#">stringent goals</a> of making the U.S. electricity supply carbon-free electricity by 2035 and achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas economy by 2050. </p>
<p>Such a blueprint would need to include a plan for reshaping the nation’s energy infrastructure to phase out use of natural gas, along with coal and oil. In theory, it could include targeted deployment of gas resources to ensure that energy needs are being met while zero-carbon resources are deployed along the way. </p>
<p>I’d like to see a clear articulation of the climate, health and energy system impacts of approving additional LNG export terminals, with enforcement mechanisms in place to ensure that the U.S. will meet defined limits on climate and other pollution, and on operational conditions. I’d also like to see health and environmental justice considerations deeply embedded into energy and climate decisions in general, and especially for LNG projects. </p>
<p>These plants are sited mainly in communities that <a href="https://prismreports.org/2023/02/20/lng-climate-sacrifice-zones/">have suffered high rates of illness, premature deaths and environmental damage</a> from hosting <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/21/oil-refineries-pollution-gulf-coast-epa/">fossil fuel infrastructure</a> for decades. Many of them have <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/emissions-rising-seas-test-game-changer-lng-project/">said they don’t want</a> additional LNG development. In my view, without clarity on where the U.S. is going on this issue, it will be extremely difficult to make good decisions about LNG, and about natural gas in general.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Grubert served in 2021-2022 as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Carbon Management and, later, as Senior Advisor in the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management at the US Department of Energy, which has permitting authority over LNG terminals. She was not involved with LNG decisions.</span></em></p>The US, a minor liquefied natural gas supplier a decade ago, now is the world’s top source. That’s good for energy security, but bad for Earth’s climate. An energy scholar explains the trade-offs.Emily Grubert, Associate Professor of Sustainable Energy Policy, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2227372024-02-05T19:11:18Z2024-02-05T19:11:18ZDangerous climate tipping points will affect Australia. The risks are real and cannot be ignored<p>In 2023, we saw a raft of news stories about climate tipping points, including the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65317469">accelerating loss</a> of <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-happen-to-the-greenland-ice-sheet-if-we-miss-our-global-warming-targets-215928">Greenland</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/antarctic-tipping-points-the-irreversible-changes-to-come-if-we-fail-to-keep-warming-below-2-207410">Antarctic</a> ice sheets, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/04/south-american-monsoon-heading-towards-tipping-point-likely-to-cause-amazon-dieback">potential dieback</a> of the Amazon rainforest and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-atlantic-oceans-major-current-system-is-slowing-down-but-a-21st-century-collapse-is-unlikely-214647">likely weakening</a> of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation.</p>
<p>The ice sheets, Amazon rainforest and the Atlantic <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w">ocean circulation</a> are among nine recognised <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950">global climate tipping elements</a>. Once a tipping point is crossed, changes are often irreversible for a very long time. In many cases, additional greenhouse gases will be released into the atmosphere, further warming our planet.</p>
<p>New <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950">scientific research and reviews</a> suggest at least one of Earth’s “tipping points” could be <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-are-nearer-than-you-think-our-new-report-warns-of-catastrophic-risk-219243">closer than we hoped</a>. A <a href="https://global-tipping-points.org/">milestone review</a> of global tipping points was launched at last year’s COP28.</p>
<p>What will these tipping points mean for Australia? We don’t yet have a good enough understanding to fully answer this question. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.csiro.au/-/media/Environment/CSIRO_Tipping-Points-Report.pdf">Our report</a>, released overnight, includes conclusions in three categories: we need to do more research; tipping points must be part of climate projections, hazard and impact analyses; and adaptation plans must take the potential impacts into account.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-are-nearer-than-you-think-our-new-report-warns-of-catastrophic-risk-219243">Climate tipping points are nearer than you think – our new report warns of catastrophic risk</a>
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<h2>What are climate tipping points?</h2>
<p>Climate scientists have <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-climate-tipping-points-should-we-be-looking-out-for-27108">known for a while</a>, through paleoclimate records and other evidence, that there are “tipping elements” in the climate system. These elements can undergo an abrupt change in state, which becomes self-perpetuating and irreversible for a very long time.</p>
<p>An example is the loss of Greenland ice. Once ice is lost, climate feedbacks lead to further loss, and major ice loss becomes “committed”. It becomes unlikely the ice sheet will reform for tens of thousands of years and only if the climate cools again. </p>
<p>Triggering climate tipping points would lead to changes in addition to those commonly included in <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/">climate projections</a>. These changes include a significant rise in sea level at double the rate (or even more) of usual projections, as well as extra warming, altered weather systems, climate variability and extremes. </p>
<p>Triggering one tipping point may trigger other tipping points. If that happens, the cascading impacts would push many systems outside their adaptive capacity.</p>
<p>Cutting fossil greenhouse gas emissions is the most important thing we can do to limit warming and the risk of triggering tipping points. The faster we reduce emissions, the better our chances.</p>
<p>But as the planet continues to warm, we must consider the consequences of triggering some, or several, tipping points for Australia and the resulting risks for society. We need to have the right tools for adaptation planning to consider these risks.</p>
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<img alt="Seawater floods a coastal property in Brisbane" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572956/original/file-20240202-21-jltl0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572956/original/file-20240202-21-jltl0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572956/original/file-20240202-21-jltl0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572956/original/file-20240202-21-jltl0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572956/original/file-20240202-21-jltl0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572956/original/file-20240202-21-jltl0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572956/original/file-20240202-21-jltl0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Adaptation planning must consider the potential impacts of tipping points, such as higher rises in sea level.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sea-washing-over-wall-flooding-street-169034384">Silken Photography/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/antarctic-tipping-points-the-irreversible-changes-to-come-if-we-fail-to-keep-warming-below-2-207410">Antarctic tipping points: the irreversible changes to come if we fail to keep warming below 2℃</a>
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<h2>Grappling with deep uncertainties</h2>
<p>There’s a major gap in the research literature around the implications of tipping points for the southern hemisphere and Australia. Researchers from Australian science agencies and universities came together last year to consider what global climate tipping points could mean for Australia. </p>
<p>We launched <a href="https://www.csiro.au/-/media/Environment/CSIRO_Tipping-Points-Report.pdf">our report</a> last night at the national conference of the <a href="https://www.amos.org.au/">Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society</a>. We identified several priority areas for the research community, risk analysts and policymakers.</p>
<p>We considered the nine global climate tipping points – and one of the most relevant regional tipping points for Australia, coral reef die-offs – as defined in a recent <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950">scientific review</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572736/original/file-20240201-25-1bc4jc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572736/original/file-20240201-25-1bc4jc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572736/original/file-20240201-25-1bc4jc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572736/original/file-20240201-25-1bc4jc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572736/original/file-20240201-25-1bc4jc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572736/original/file-20240201-25-1bc4jc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572736/original/file-20240201-25-1bc4jc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The nine global climate tipping points and the one most relevant regional tipping point of seven listed in Armstrong-McKay et al review (2022), and their assessed ranges of global warming where the tipping may be triggered (some other evidence or studies may differ from these ranges).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950">Adapted from: Armstrong-McKay et al. 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-happen-to-the-greenland-ice-sheet-if-we-miss-our-global-warming-targets-215928">What will happen to the Greenland ice sheet if we miss our global warming targets</a>
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<p>For almost all tipping points, we don’t understand all the relevant processes. There are deep uncertainties about what conditions would trigger tipping points, how they would play out and their likely impacts. </p>
<p>Along with recognising the most urgent point – that deep emission cuts will limit the chances of triggering tipping points – our conclusions cover three areas.</p>
<p><strong>1. We need more research</strong></p>
<p>We need to expand research on paleoclimate records, theory and process understanding, observations, monitoring and modelling. Australia leads world-class research, including on Antarctica, the Southern Ocean, the carbon cycle, weather processes and ecosystems. It is essential we support and expand the work, bringing a southern hemisphere perspective to global efforts.</p>
<p><strong>2. Climate projections, hazard and impact analyses must include tipping points</strong> </p>
<p>Triggering some climate tipping points would have direct impacts on our coasts, ecosystems and society. In an interconnected world, other tipping points would have major indirect impacts – through climate migration, conflict, disrupted trade and more. </p>
<p>We need credible projections of what the climate looks like if tipping points are triggered. Our climate impact and risk analyses should illustrate what it really means for us. Given the limited state of knowledge, the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9">“storyline” approach</a> – linking past, current and future unfolding of events in a narrative or pathway framework – is particularly useful, informed by all the available evidence.</p>
<p><strong>3. We need to consider what it means for adaptation</strong></p>
<p>We can consider where, when and how we can act to reduce potential impacts if tipping points are triggered. Appropriate risk management accounts for likelihood, consequence and timeframe. </p>
<p>For example, planning for major coastal infrastructure with a long lifetime and low tolerance for failure could draw on the sea-level projections of “low likelihood, high impact” storylines that include the west Antarctic ice sheet collapsing. This would safeguard critical infrastructure against one worst-case risk. Of course, there is much more to adaptation than this. </p>
<p>We still have much to learn, but we cannot wait for perfect knowledge before we start planning. It’s clear the risks are real and cannot be ignored. </p>
<p>We need to focus on what we can do to avoid triggering tipping points, manage risk and build our climate resilience. There are also <a href="https://global-tipping-points.org/section4/4-0-positive-tipping-points-in-technology-economy-and-society/">positive tipping points</a> in technology, economy and society that are part of the solution. If we get it right, positive change can happen more rapidly than we might think.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-can-be-positive-too-our-report-sets-out-how-to-engineer-a-domino-effect-of-rapid-changes-219291">Climate 'tipping points' can be positive too – our report sets out how to engineer a domino effect of rapid changes</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Grose receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program and the Australian Climate Service.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Pitman receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>We don’t yet fully understand what global climate tipping points mean for Australia. But we know enough to conclude the impacts of passing one or more tipping points must now be considered.Michael Grose, Climate Projections Scientist, CSIROAndy Pitman, Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214972024-01-22T19:04:58Z2024-01-22T19:04:58Z‘It’s not game over – it’s game on’: why 2024 is an inflection point for the climate crisis<p>In 2024, global climate trends are cause for both deep alarm and cautious optimism. Last year was the hottest on record by a huge margin and this year will likely be hotter still. The annual global average temperature may, for the first time, exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – a threshold crucial for stabilising the Earth’s climate. </p>
<p>Without immediate action, we are at grave risk of crossing irreversible tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. Yet there are reasons for hope.</p>
<p>Global greenhouse gas emissions may peak this year and start falling. This would be an historic turning point, heralding the end of the fossil fuel era as coal, oil and gas are increasingly displaced by clean energy technologies. </p>
<p>But we must do more than take our foot off the warming accelerator – we must slam on the brakes. To avoid the worst of the climate crisis, global emissions must roughly halve by 2030. The task is monumental but possible, and could not be more urgent. It’s not game over – it’s game on.</p>
<h2>Our planet in peril</h2>
<p>Last year, Earth was the hottest it’s been since records began. The onset of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean helped drive global temperatures to new heights. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">found</a> 2023 was 1.48°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.</p>
<p>Warmer global temperatures in 2023 brought extreme events and disasters worldwide. They included <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-climate-expert-explains-the-northern-hemispheres-weird-wild-summer-and-what-it-means-for-australia-209862">deadly heatwaves</a> in the northern hemisphere summer, devastating <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">wildfires</a> in Canada and Hawaii, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-26/climate-change-blamed-for-south-africa-s-floods">record-breaking rains</a> in many places including Korea, South Africa and China. </p>
<p>Last year was also the <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far#:%7E:text=Global%20ocean%20heat%20content%20set,heat%20in%20the%20Earth%20system.">warmest on record</a> for the world’s oceans. More than <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/#:%7E:text=Covering%20more%20than%2070%25%20of,heat%20as%20Earth%27s%20entire%20atmosphere.">90% of heat</a> from global warming is stored in the world’s oceans. Ocean temperatures are a <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CC_MVSA0383-CC-Report-on-Oceans_V8-FA-Screen-Single.pdf">clear indicator</a> of our warming planet, revealing a year-on-year increase and an acceleration in the rate of warming.</p>
<p>The warming oceans meant for parts of 2023, the extent of sea ice in the Earth’s polar regions was the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/exceptional-antarctic-melt-drives-months-of-record-low-global-sea-ice-cover">lowest on record</a>. During the southern hemisphere winter, sea ice in Antarctica was <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/2023-antarctic-sea-ice-winter-maximum-lowest-record-wide-margin">more than one million square kilometres</a> below the previous record low – an area of ice more than 15 times the size of Tasmania.</p>
<p>This year may be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00074-z#:%7E:text=The%20final%20numbers%20are%20in,for%20the%20time%20of%20year.">hotter still</a>. There is a reasonable chance 2024 will end with an average global temperature more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Governments have agreed, through the Paris Agreement, to work together to limit global warming to 1.5°C, because warming beyond this threshold poses enormous dangers for humanity. </p>
<p>The agreement refers to long-term trends in temperature, not a single year. So breaching 1.5°C in 2024 would not mean the world has failed to meet the Paris target. However, on long-term trends we are on track to cross the 1.5°C limit <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/News/2024/January/Expert-commentary-2023-warmest-year-on-record">in the early 2030s</a>. </p>
<p>As the planet warms, we are now at grave risk of crossing irreversible “<a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950">tipping points</a>” in Earth’s climate system – including the loss of polar ice sheets and associated sea-level rise, and the collapse of major ocean currents. These tipping points represent thresholds which, when crossed, will trigger abrupt and self-perpetuating changes to the world’s climate and oceans. They are threats of a magnitude never before faced by humanity – one-way doors we do not want to go through.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-is-time-to-draw-down-carbon-dioxide-but-shut-down-moves-to-play-god-with-the-climate-220422">It is time to draw down carbon dioxide but shut down moves to play God with the climate</a>
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<h2>The age of fossil fuels will end</h2>
<p>In 2024 there are also many reasons for hope. </p>
<p>At the COP28 United Nations climate talks in December 2023, governments from nearly 200 countries agreed to accelerate the <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era">transition away from fossil fuels</a> in this crucial decade. The burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause of the climate crisis. </p>
<p>We have the technology needed to replace fossil fuels across our economy: in electricity generation, transport, heating, cooking and industrial processes. In fact, surging market demand for clean energy technologies – wind, solar, batteries and electric cars – is now displacing polluting technologies, such as coal-fired power and combustion engine vehicles, on a global scale.</p>
<p>The world <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/massive-expansion-of-renewable-power-opens-door-to-achieving-global-tripling-goal-set-at-cop28">added</a> 510 billion watts of renewable energy capacity in 2023, 50% more than in 2022 and equivalent to the entire power capacity of Germany, France and Spain combined. The next five years are expected to see even faster growth in renewables. </p>
<p>Sales of electric vehicles are also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/global-electric-car-sales-rose-31-2023-rho-motion-2024-01-11/">booming</a> – growing by 31% in 2023 and representing <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles">around 18%</a> of all new vehicles sold worldwide. In Australia, sales of electric vehicles <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-05/australia-ev-sales-doubled-electric-hybrid-vehicles/103284916">doubled last year</a> and are expected to continue to grow strongly.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-deal-confirms-what-australia-already-knows-coal-is-out-of-vogue-and-out-of-time-219906">COP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time</a>
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<h2>Toward a peak in global emissions</h2>
<p>The accelerating shift toward clean energy technologies means global greenhouse gas emissions may fall in 2024. Recent analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), based on the stated policies of governments, suggests emissions may in fact have <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals/">peaked last year</a>. The finding is supported by analysis from <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/when-will-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-peak">Climate Analytics</a>, which found a 70% chance of emissions falling from 2024 if current growth in clean technologies continues.</p>
<p>A growing number of major economies have passed their emissions peaks, including the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan. </p>
<p>China is currently the world’s biggest emitter, contributing 31% of the global total last year. But explosive growth in clean energy investments mean China’s emissions are set not only to fall in 2024, but to go into <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2024-after-record-growth-in-clean-energy/">structural decline</a>.</p>
<p>What’s more, China is currently undergoing a boom in clean energy manufacturing and a historic expansion of renewables – especially solar. Similarly explosive growth is expected for batteries and electric vehicles. </p>
<p>A peak in global emissions is cause for optimism – but it won’t be nearly enough. Greenhouse gas emissions will still accumulate in the atmosphere and drive catastrophic warming, until we bring them as close to zero as possible. </p>
<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns global emissions must <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">roughly halve by 2030</a> to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach. The task is monumental, but possible.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing how climate policy shifts and clean energy use are bringing the world closer to an emissions peak" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Climate policy shifts and clean energy use are bringing the world closer to an emissions peak – but governments need to do more.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Council, adapted from Carbon Brief analysis and based on IEA data.</span></span>
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<h2>Next steps for Australia</h2>
<p>Australia is making great strides in rolling out renewable energy. But state and federal governments are undermining this progress by approving new fossil fuel projects. </p>
<p>Every new coal, oil or gas development endangers us all. Australia must urgently reform its national environmental law – the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act – to end new fossil fuel developments.</p>
<p>Similarly, Australia’s gains in renewable energy have been offset by <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/annual-climate-change-statement-2023.pdf">rising emissions in other sectors</a>, notably transport. It’s time to implement long-promised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/25/public-consultation-overwhelmingly-supports-fuel-efficiency-standard-for-cars-labor-says">fuel efficiency standards</a> and get these emissions down. </p>
<p>Beyond these immediate next practical steps, Australia has much work ahead to shift from fossil fuel exports to clean alternatives. </p>
<p>The opportunity for Australia to play a major positive role in the world’s decarbonisation journey is undeniable, but that window of opportunity is narrowing fast.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221497/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wesley Morgan is a Senior Researcher with the Climate Council</span></em></p>Without urgent action, Earth is heading for climate catastrophe. Yet there are reasons for hope in 2024 – including a possible peak in global greenhouse gas emissions.Wesley Morgan, Research Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215372024-01-22T13:11:22Z2024-01-22T13:11:22ZUrban agriculture isn’t as climate-friendly as it seems, but these best practices can transform gardens and city farms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570382/original/file-20240119-29-d52zd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2035%2C1358&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Recycling construction materials and water can make urban agriculture more sustainable.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/52760659431">Lauren Moore/USDA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Urban agriculture is expected to be an important feature of 21st century sustainability and can have many benefits for communities and cities, including providing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-022-00859-4">fresh produce</a> in neighborhoods with few other options. </p>
<p>Among those benefits, growing food in backyards, community gardens or urban farms can shrink the distance fruits and vegetables have to travel between producers and consumers – what’s known as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00531-w">the “food mile” problem</a>. With transportation’s greenhouse gas emissions eliminated, it’s a small leap to assume that urban agriculture is a simple climate solution.</p>
<p>But is urban agriculture really as climate-friendly as many people think?</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pBxU-2sAAAAJ&hl=en">Our</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=5VCGc9kAAAAJ&hl=en">team of</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rSS0xmMAAAAJ&hl=en">researchers</a> partnered with individual gardeners, community garden volunteers and urban farm managers at 73 sites across five countries in North America and Europe to test this assumption. </p>
<p>We found that urban agriculture, while it has many community benefits, isn’t always better for the climate than conventional agriculture over the life cycle, even with transportation factored in. In fact, on average, the urban agriculture sites we studied were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-023-00023-3">six times more carbon intensive</a> per serving of fruit or vegetables than conventional farming.</p>
<p>However, we also found several practices that stood out for how effectively they can make fruits and vegetables grown in cities more climate-friendly.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young man kneels down with an older farmer in a hat to tend vegetables growing behind a row of brownstone homes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570457/original/file-20240120-21-u7h9ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570457/original/file-20240120-21-u7h9ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570457/original/file-20240120-21-u7h9ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570457/original/file-20240120-21-u7h9ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570457/original/file-20240120-21-u7h9ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570457/original/file-20240120-21-u7h9ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570457/original/file-20240120-21-u7h9ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Community gardens like Baltimore’s Plantation Park Heights Urban Farm provide a wide range of benefits to the community, including providing fresh produce in areas with few places to buy fresh fruits and vegetables and having a positive impact on young people’s lives.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/51337806809">Preston Keres/USDA/FPAC</a></span>
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<h2>What makes urban ag more carbon-intensive?</h2>
<p>Most research on urban agriculture has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1a39">focused on a single type</a> of urban farming, often high-tech projects, such as aquaponic tanks, rooftop greenhouses or vertical farms. Electricity consumption often means the food grown in these high-tech environments has a big carbon footprint.</p>
<p>We looked instead at the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1a39">life cycle emissions</a> of more common low-tech urban agriculture – the kind found in urban backyards, vacant lots and urban farms.</p>
<p>Our study, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-023-00023-3">published Jan. 22, 2024</a>, modeled carbon emissions from farming activities like watering and fertilizing crops and from building and maintaining the farms. Surprisingly, from a life cycle emissions perspective, the most common source at these sites turned out to be infrastructure. From raised beds to sheds and concrete pathways, this gardening infrastructure means more carbon emissions per serving of produce than the average wide-open fields on conventional farms.</p>
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<img alt="People work in a garden with a rain barrel in front of them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570458/original/file-20240120-16-pmcpjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570458/original/file-20240120-16-pmcpjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570458/original/file-20240120-16-pmcpjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570458/original/file-20240120-16-pmcpjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570458/original/file-20240120-16-pmcpjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570458/original/file-20240120-16-pmcpjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570458/original/file-20240120-16-pmcpjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Capturing rainwater from gutters to feed gardens can cut the need for fresh water supplies. Water pumping, treatment and transportation in pipes all require energy use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mpcaphotos/31795954978">Minnesota Pollution Control Agency</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>However, among the 73 sites in cities including New York, London and Paris, 17 had lower emissions than conventional farms. By exploring what set these sites apart, we identified some best practices for shrinking the carbon footprint of urban food production.</p>
<h2>1) Make use of recycled materials, including food waste and water</h2>
<p>Using old building materials for constructing farm infrastructure, such as raised beds, can cut out the climate impacts of new lumber, cement and glass, among other materials. We found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-023-00023-3">upcycling building materials</a> could cut a site’s emissions 50% or more.</p>
<p>On average, our sites used compost to replace 95% of synthetic nutrients. Using <a href="https://www.epa.gov/recycle/composting-home">food waste as compost</a> can avoid both the methane emissions from food scraps buried in landfills and the need for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-015-0348-4">synthetic fertilizers</a> made from fossil fuels. We found that careful compost management could cut greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 40%.</p>
<p><iframe id="cdWs8" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cdWs8/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Capturing <a href="https://greenportal.wca.ca.gov/strategies/water-capture">rainwater or using greywater</a> from shower drains or sinks can reduce the need for pumping water, water treatment and water distribution. Yet we found that few sites used those techniques for most of their water.</p>
<h2>2) Grow crops that are carbon-intensive when grown by conventional methods</h2>
<p>Tomatoes are a great example of crops that can cut emissions when grown with low-tech urban agriculture. Commercially, they are often grown in large-scale greenhouses that can be <a href="https://www.sdu.dk/en/om_sdu/fakulteterne/teknik/nyt_fra_det_tekniske_fakultet/tomater-fra-varme-lande-bedre-for-klimaet">particularly energy-intensive</a>. Asparagus and other produce that must be <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/airfreight/asparagus-moves-worldwide-from-lax">transported by airplane</a> because they spoil quickly are another example with a large carbon footprint.</p>
<p><iframe id="wu0oj" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wu0oj/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>By growing these crops instead of buying them in stores, low-tech urban growers can reduce their net carbon impact.</p>
<h2>3) Keep urban gardens going long term</h2>
<p>Cities are constantly changing, and community gardens can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su2082499">vulnerable to development pressures</a>. But if urban agriculture sites can remain in place for many years, they can avoid the need for new infrastructure and keep providing other benefits to their communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man with hoe stands in front of the community farm with play equipment to one side and buildings in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570383/original/file-20240119-27145-g0di1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570383/original/file-20240119-27145-g0di1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570383/original/file-20240119-27145-g0di1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570383/original/file-20240119-27145-g0di1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570383/original/file-20240119-27145-g0di1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570383/original/file-20240119-27145-g0di1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570383/original/file-20240119-27145-g0di1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taqwa Community Farm in the Bronx, New York, has provided space to grow fresh vegetables for the community for over three decades. The farm composts food waste to create its own natural fertilizer, reducing its costs and climate impact.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/52196085319/">Preston Keres/USDA/FPAC</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Urban agriculture sites provide ecosystem services and social benefits, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-022-00859-4">fresh produce</a>, community building and education. Urban farms also create <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-022-00859-4">homes for bees and urban wildlife</a>, while offering some <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.826437">protection from the urban heat island effect</a>. </p>
<p>The practice of growing food in cities is <a href="https://www.contrivedatuminsights.com/product-report/urban-farming-market-248549/">expected to continue expanding</a> in the coming years, and many cities are looking to it as a key tool for climate adaptation and environmental justice. </p>
<p>We believe that with careful site design and improved land use policy, urban farmers and gardeners can boost their benefit both to people nearby and the planet as a whole.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221537/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Goldstein receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Hawes and Joshua Newell do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A study of dozens of city gardens and urban farms across the US and Europe found several ways to boost their benefits, not just for their neighborhoods, but for the planet.Jason Hawes, Ph.D. Candidate in Resource Policy and Behavior, University of MichiganBenjamin Goldstein, Assistant Professor of Sustainable Systems, University of MichiganJoshua Newell, Professor of Environment and Sustainability, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210582024-01-19T13:03:19Z2024-01-19T13:03:19ZRed Sea shipping disruptions could be avoided in the future by using the Arctic – but it could spell trouble for fragile ecosystems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569909/original/file-20240117-27-cvnsia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=245%2C491%2C5127%2C3145&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/container-cargo-ship-on-icy-waters-752977432">Jean Landry/sHUTTERSTOCK</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Attacks by Yemeni <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2e918f9f-bcb4-47e2-9c15-c70a2a8ade5f">Houthi rebels</a> on merchant ships in the Red Sea have hit world trade. Between November and December 2023, the number of containers travelling through the Red Sea each day <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/11/global-trade-falls-houthi-attacks-merchant-ships-red-sea">fell by 60%</a> as ships moving goods between Asia and Europe diverted their routes around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa.</p>
<p>This route results in at least <a href="https://classic.searoutes.com/">ten days more</a> sailing time, so has caused freight <a href="https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-yemen-houthis-attack-ships-f67d941c260528ac40315ecab4c34ca3">prices to surge</a> and has triggered costly <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/tesla-to-halt-production-at-german-car-factory-as-red-sea-conflict-hits-supply-chains-3735e991#">delays to production</a>. The region has become a bottleneck for the global economy before. The Suez canal, a waterway that connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, was blocked for six days in 2021 after a container ship called the Ever Given ran aground, disrupting <a href="https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/2021_03_26_SupplyChainDisruption.html">billions of dollars</a> worth of trade.</p>
<p>The cape route has been used each time passage through Suez has been disrupted. But there is an alternative sea passage between Asia and Europe – the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920922002589">Northern Sea</a> route. </p>
<p>This route, which runs from the Barents Sea near Russia’s border with Norway, to the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska, may be a better option and will soon become available if <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202213">global warming continues</a> at the predicted rate. Nevertheless, it currently faces many challenges.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-red-sea-attacks-on-cargo-ships-could-disrupt-deliveries-and-push-up-prices-a-logistics-expert-explains-220110">How Red Sea attacks on cargo ships could disrupt deliveries and push up prices – a logistics expert explains</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>An alternative for world trade?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/arctic-summer-sea-ice-could-be-gone-by-2035">Research</a> estimates that summer sea ice around the Siberian coast will be melted completely by 2035. Even if ice cover is not completely removed, the thickness of the sea ice – one of the initial barriers to Arctic shipping – has <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03088839.2016.1231428">significantly reduced</a> over the past four decades from 3.64 metres to 1.89 metres. Arctic navigation is thus expected to be viable by the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X21004966">beginning of the next decade</a>.</p>
<p>For shipments between Shanghai and Rotterdam, the Northern Sea route reduces the distance that ships will need to travel by around <a href="https://services-webdav.cbs.dk/doc/CBS.dk/Arctic%20Shipping%20-%20Commercial%20Opportunities%20and%20Challenges.pdf">3,000 nautical miles</a> compared to Suez and <a href="https://sea-distances.org/">6,200 miles</a> compared to the cape route. This would <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S096669231100024X">reduce</a> the amount of time if takes to sail between eastern Asia and northern Europe to 18 days (it currently takes 32 days via Suez). </p>
<p>Arctic navigation is also performed at very slow speeds – <a href="https://www.marineinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/The-guide-to-slow-steaming-on-ships.pdf">under 18 knots</a> (roughly 21mph). So, depending on sailing speed and the type of fuel used, a cargo ship that passes through the Northern Sea route could use <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X16000038">40% less fuel</a> and generate up to 80% fewer emissions than if it used the Suez route.</p>
<h2>But is it viable?</h2>
<p>Despite its advantages, Arctic navigation is highly seasonal, restricted to the months between <a href="https://www.ocimf.org/document-libary/94-northern-sea-route-navigation-best-practices-and-challenges-1/file">July and November</a>. Navigating ships through the Northern Sea route also requires an escort behind a nuclear-powered icebreaker ship. But the number of icebreakers is limited. Just <a href="https://chnl.no/maps/nsr-shipping-traffic-activities-in-may-2022/">five</a> operated on the Northern Sea route in 2021, rising to <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-launches-new-nuclear-icebreaker-it-looks-east-northern-sea-route-shipping">nine</a> by 2030. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A photo taken onboard an icebreaker ship going through an ice field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Navigating ships through the Northern Sea route requires an escort behind a nuclear-powered icebreaker ship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/icebreaker-going-through-ice-fields-arctic-725163385">Katrin York/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Northern Sea route also suffers capacity issues. So-called “mega-vessels” that have a capacity of around 20,000 containers are deployed for trade between Asia and Europe. However, the Northern Sea route is not able to accommodate mega-vessels due to the imposition of restrictions based on the depth of sea ice. </p>
<p>Nowadays, only vessels with a roughly <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569121001150">5,000 container carrying capacity</a> can easily navigate through the North Sea route during the summer.</p>
<h2>Fragile Arctic ecosystems</h2>
<p>Cargo ships that pass through the Northern Sea route would potentially generate <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920923002936">fewer carbon emissions</a> than ships that travel through Suez. But this alternative route is subject to other environmental challenges. </p>
<p>Arctic ecosystems take a long time to recover from disturbances like oil spills. Accidents in these sensitive regions may thus cause unimaginable marine pollution. </p>
<p>In 1989, for example, the <a href="https://www.marineinsight.com/maritime-history/the-complete-story-of-the-exxon-valdez-oil-spill/">Exxon Valdez</a> oil tanker ran aground in Prince William Sound, Alaska, spilling more than <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/who-we-are/technology-and-collaborations/energy-technologies/risk-management-and-safety/the-valdez-oil-spill">250,000 barrels</a> of oil into the sea. The oil spill <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/oil-spills-30-years-after-exxon-valdez">killed</a> billions of salmon and more than 300,000 animals from a variety of fish and bird species. </p>
<p>More than 25 years since the spill, four of these species (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/killer-whale">killer whales</a>, <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=kittlitzmurrelet.main">Kittlitz’s murrelets</a>, <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=marbledmurrelet.main">marbled murrelets</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/pigeon-guillemot">pigeon guillemots</a>) have not been re-encountered in the region.</p>
<p>Many cargo ships also carry ballast water to maintain stability during various stages of their operation. Ballast water is taken on or discharged throughout the ship’s journey. This practice could potentially result in the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/18366503.2015.1093695">migration of invasive species</a> to the unique Arctic ecosystem.</p>
<h2>Routes are changing</h2>
<p>Despite these challenges, Arctic shipping traffic is increasing. Between 2013 and 2017, the volume of cargo traffic on the Northern Sea route <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-says-northern-sea-route-transport-270m-tons-2035">rose</a> from 2.8 million tons to 10.7 million tons. </p>
<p>In 2023, this had grown to <a href="https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/news/historical-record-of-the-northern-sea-route-the-cargo-carriage-volume-in-2023-exceeded-36-254-mln-to/">36.2 million tons</a>. And it shows no signs of slowing down. In 2024, Russia’s icebreaker fleet expects to conduct <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-says-northern-sea-route-transport-270m-tons-2035">1,747 escorts</a> (up from <a href="https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/news/historical-record-of-the-northern-sea-route-the-cargo-carriage-volume-in-2023-exceeded-36-254-mln-to/">1,218</a> in 2023).</p>
<p>The Northern Sea route is currently not able to accommodate the vessel traffic and amount of cargo that passes through the Suez Canal. But it could be a viable alternative in the future depending on how fast progress is made on tackling global warming and developing a regulatory framework for navigating the Arctic region.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gokcay Balci receives funding from the British Academy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kemal Akbayirli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have disrupted trade between Asia and Europe – could ships cross the Arctic instead?Kemal Akbayirli, Research Assistant in Maritime Business and Administration, Ordu UniversityGokcay Balci, Assistant Professor in Logistics and Supply Chain, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184252024-01-12T13:27:51Z2024-01-12T13:27:51ZNot all carbon-capture projects pay off for the climate – we mapped the pros and cons of each and found clear winners and losers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566974/original/file-20231220-29-i3lg8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C12%2C8500%2C5636&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Producing concrete blocks with captured carbon, like these in Brooklyn, NY., has both economic and climate benefits.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ClimateDecarbonizingBuildings/7719f5a25a9e4b1c89afd7eef7a37e58/photo">AP Photo/John Minchillo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Capturing carbon dioxide from the air or industries and recycling it can sound like a win-win climate solution. The greenhouse gas stays out of the atmosphere where it can warm the planet, and it avoids the use of more fossil fuels.</p>
<p>But not all carbon-capture projects offer the same economic and environmental benefits. In fact, some can actually worsen climate change.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://volker-sick.engin.umich.edu/">lead the Global CO₂ Initiative</a> at the University of Michigan, where my colleagues and I study how to put captured carbon dioxide (CO₂) to use in ways that help protect the climate. To help figure out which projects will pay off and make these choices easier, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1286588">mapped out the pros and cons</a> of the most common carbon sources and uses.</p>
<h2>Replacing fossil fuels with captured carbon</h2>
<p>Carbon plays a crucial role in many parts of our lives. Materials such as fertilizer, aviation fuel, textiles, detergents and much more depend on it. But years of research and the climate changes the world is already experiencing have made <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">abundantly clear</a> that humanity needs to urgently end the use of fossil fuels and remove the excess CO₂ from the atmosphere and oceans that have resulted from their use.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566951/original/file-20231220-29-qulhfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration of a landscape shows how greenhouse gases and released, captured and stored in various ways, including oceans, land, forests and human activities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566951/original/file-20231220-29-qulhfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566951/original/file-20231220-29-qulhfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566951/original/file-20231220-29-qulhfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566951/original/file-20231220-29-qulhfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=272&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566951/original/file-20231220-29-qulhfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566951/original/file-20231220-29-qulhfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566951/original/file-20231220-29-qulhfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Balancing the environmental carbon budget is complex, and active carbon management is necessary to stabilize the climate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Michigan</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some carbon materials can be replaced with carbon-free alternatives, such as using renewable energy to produce electricity. However, for other uses, such as aviation fuel or plastics, carbon will be harder to replace. For these, technologies are being developed to <a href="https://doi.org/10.52548/KCTT1279">capture and recycle carbon</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.globalco2initiative.org/">Capturing excess CO₂</a> – from the oceans, atmosphere or industry – and using it for new purposes is called <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/ccus-in-clean-energy-transitions">carbon capture, utilization and sequestration</a>, or CCUS. Of all the options to handle captured CO₂, my colleagues and I favor using it to make products, but let’s examine all of them.</p>
<h2>CCUS best and worst cases</h2>
<p>With each method, the combination of the source of the CO₂ and its end use, or disposition, determines its environmental and <a href="https://doi.org/10.7302/5826">economic consequences</a>.</p>
<p>In the best cases, the process will leave less CO₂ in the environment than before. A strong example of this is using captured CO₂ to produce construction materials, such as concrete. It seals away the captured carbon and creates a product that has economic value.</p>
<p><iframe id="A5bka" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A5bka/11/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A few methods are carbon-neutral, meaning they add no new CO₂ to the environment. For example, when using CO₂ captured from the air or oceans and turning it into fuel or food, the carbon returns to the atmosphere, but the use of captured carbon avoids the need for new carbon from fossil fuels. </p>
<p>Other combinations, however, are harmful because they increase the amount of excess CO₂ in the environment. One of the most common underground storage methods – enhanced oil recovery – is a prime example.</p>
<h2>Underground carbon storage pros and cons</h2>
<p>Projects for years have been capturing excess CO₂ and <a href="https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/resources/global-status-of-ccs-2022/">storing it underground in natural structures</a> of porous rock, such as deep saline reservoirs, basalt or depleted oil or gas wells. This is called carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). If done right, geologic storage can durably remove large amounts of CO₂ from the atmosphere.</p>
<p>When the CO₂ is captured from air, water or biomass, this creates a carbon-negative process – less carbon is in the air afterward. However, if the CO₂ instead comes from new fossil fuel emissions, such as from a coal- or gas-fired power plant, carbon neutrality isn’t possible. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-2215-0">No carbon-capture technology works at 100% efficiency</a>, and some CO₂ will always escape into the air.</p>
<p>Capturing CO₂ is also expensive. If there is no product to sell, underground storage <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/why-carbon-capture-storage-cost-remains-high">can become a costly service</a> ultimately covered by taxes or fees, similar to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsfs.2020.0010">paying for trash disposal</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="xQEcl" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xQEcl/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>One way to lower the cost is to sell the captured CO₂ for <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/can-co2-eor-really-provide-carbon-negative-oil">enhanced oil recovery</a> – a common practice that pumps captured CO₂ into oil fields to push more oil out of the ground. While most of the CO₂ is expected to stay underground, the result is more fossil fuels that will eventually send more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, eliminating the environmental benefit.</p>
<h2>Using captured carbon for food and fuel</h2>
<p>Short-lived materials made from CO₂ include <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/sustainable-aviation-fuels/">aviation fuels</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcou.2021.101726">food</a>, <a href="https://www.aspirin-foundation.com/history/chemistry/">drugs</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmatprotec.2013.10.003">working fluids</a> used in machining metals. These items aren’t particularly durable and will soon decompose, releasing CO₂ again. But the sale of the products yields economic value, helping pay for the process.</p>
<p>This CO₂ can be captured from the air again and used to make a future generation of products, which would create a sustainable, essentially <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fecm/articles/co2-recycling-technology-limits-opportunities-and-policies-circular-carbon-economy">circular carbon economy</a>. However, this only works if the CO₂ is captured from the air or oceans. If the CO₂ comes from fossil fuel sources instead, this is new CO₂ that will be added to the environment when the products decompose. So even if it is captured again, it will worsen climate change.</p>
<h2>Storing carbon in materials, such as concrete</h2>
<p>Some minerals and waste materials can convert CO₂ to limestone or other rock materials. The long-lived materials created this way can be very durable, with <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.878756">lifetimes of longer than 100 years</a></p>
<p>A good <a href="https://theconversation.com/bendable-concrete-and-other-co2-infused-cement-mixes-could-dramatically-cut-global-emissions-152544">example is concrete</a>. CO₂ can react with particles in concrete, causing it to <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/making-minerals-how-growing-rocks-can-help-reduce-carbon-emissions">mineralize into solid form</a>. The result is a useful product that can be sold instead of being stored underground. Other durable products include aggregates used in road construction, carbon fiber used in automotive, aerospace and defense ]applications and some polymers.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EcJWiy8Tvoc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Volker Sick, director of the Global CO₂ Initiative at the University of Michigan and author of this article, discusses why carbon capture and its use has been slow to gain attention.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These materials provide the best combination of environmental impact and economic benefit when they are made with CO₂ captured from the atmosphere rather than new fossil fuel emissions.</p>
<h2>Choose your carbon projects wisely</h2>
<p>CCUS can be a useful solution, and governments have started <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/biden-harris-administration-announces-1.2-billion-nations-first-direct-air-capture">pouring billions of dollars</a> into its development. It must be closely monitored to ensure that carbon-capture technologies will not delay fossil fuel phaseout. It is an all-hands-on-deck effort to take the best combinations of CO₂ sources and disposition to achieve rapid scaling at an affordable cost to society.</p>
<p>Because climate change is such a complex problem that is harming people throughout the world, as well as future generations, I believe it is imperative that actions are not only fast, but also well thought out and based in evidence.</p>
<p><em>Fred Mason, Gerry Stokes, Susan Fancy and Stephen McCord of the Global CO₂ Initiative contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218425/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Volker Sick receives funding from the Grantham Foundation for the Preservation of the Environment.</span></em></p>The combination of the source of the CO₂ and its end use determines its environmental and economic benefits or consequences.Volker Sick, Professor of Advanced Energy Research, Director of the Global CO2 Initiative, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.