tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/indyref-12016/articlesindyref – The Conversation2021-04-29T12:42:04Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1598582021-04-29T12:42:04Z2021-04-29T12:42:04Z‘Brexit has changed people’s minds on independence’: Q&A with Kezia Dugdale, former Scottish Labour leader<p><em>Scotland is going to the polls on May 6 for what promises to be a landmark national election. It’s the first since the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland/results">Brexit referendum</a> in June 2016, which led to Scotland (and Northern Ireland) leaving the EU against its will.</em> </p>
<p><em>Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has long said this is a “<a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-right-choose-putting-scotlands-future-scotlands-hands/pages/7/">material change</a>” in the nation’s circumstances that justifies a second referendum on Scottish independence. Support for independence has been much improved ever since. Sturgeon is now using the May election to seek a mandate for a second referendum.</em> </p>
<p><em>To help understand the machinations, we caught up with Kezia Dugdale for our podcast <a href="https://theconversation.com/scotland-why-independence-is-central-to-may-election-campaign-podcast-159883">The Conversation Weekly</a>. She is the director of the John Smith Centre at the University of Glasgow and a lecturer in public policy. She was Scottish Labour leader between 2015 and 2017. Here are some edited extracts from the conservation.</em></p>
<p><strong>Q: Can you explain what’s at stake on May 6?</strong></p>
<p>The No side won the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">2014 referendum</a> with 55% of the vote, and we thought that that would be the end of the constitutional question. But because it was relatively close, questions around the devolution settlement and Scotland’s continued place in the UK have continued to dominate. Whether you are Yes or No to independence is still the biggest factor over how you will vote in May. </p>
<p>Labour people get very uncomfortable with such a binary dynamic. People in the party don’t define themselves as either nationalists or unionists so much as social democrats or democratic socialists. Some might support independence; some might support the United Kingdom. Some like me support a federal solution, with a lot more devolution across the four nations of the UK, but retaining a UK-wide network to redistribute power and wealth. That’s quite different to a unionism that is much more about queen and country, a flag-waving British nationalism. </p>
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<p><em>Listen to Kezia Dugdale’s interview in <a href="https://theconversation.com/scotland-why-may-election-is-crucial-for-independence-movement-and-the-uk-podcast-159883">The Conversation Weekly podcast</a>.</em></p>
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<p><strong>Q: Does that division over unionism prevent an electoral coalition between the unionist parties?</strong></p>
<p>A little bit. You have to remember that there were some odd bedfellows in the 2014 referendum. In the context of British politics, the Labour and Conservative parties are arch enemies. For them both to be on the same side of an argument was very unusual. </p>
<p>After the referendum, Labour voters felt guilty about voting for the union. They had thought it was right, but it wasn’t comfortable. They didn’t like their party working with the Conservatives. The SNP exploited this, to their credit, saying, this is supposed to be the progressive Labour party, and they sided with the Conservatives to sustain the status quo.</p>
<p>It was a very potent political message. Labour has been burned very badly from winning the referendum. And let’s remember it was Labour’s ability to persuade left-of-centre voters to vote No that took the campaign over the 50% line. </p>
<p>To put it in context, I was the party’s education spokesperson in 2014. In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, we lost our leader (Johann Lamont). Then we lost another leader (Jim Murphy), in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32635871">2015 UK election</a>, because he lost his seat. The day before that election, Labour had 41 members of parliament. The day after, it had one. I was deputy leader in that election, and everybody sort of turned and looked at me. It was my turn to take over the mantle, which I did. </p>
<p>In the 2016 Scottish parliament election, when I was leader, we lost a third of our seats. Not quite the damage of 2015, but not vastly better. And in the 2017 UK election – I’m still leader at this point – we started to make up some ground. We went from one MP to seven, but interestingly, the seats we won were seats with very heavy No votes in 2014. You could look at a seat in Scotland, find out the referendum result, and take a pretty good guess about who would win there in the UK election. </p>
<p>In that election in 2017, there were another 20 seats where the majority fell for the SNP MP from tens of thousands of votes to under 1,000. Come the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/scotland">2019 general election</a>, with so many close-run seats, everybody expected to see the SNP lose substantially again, but Labour fell from seven seats back to one. I was long gone by this point, but we’re talking about six or seven years of Labour being punished for its role in the 2014 referendum. </p>
<p>Labour was also punished by the Conservatives, who were ruthless at saying you can’t trust Labour with the union; they’re not as strong as we are; not as trustworthy. They suggested I was soft on the union because I favour a federalist solution. So the Conservatives kept on attacking Labour. The SNP were attacking Labour saying they’ve sold you out. And that in many ways is why Labour is the shell of what it once was: bear in mind it was the dominant force in Scotland for most of the latter half of the 20th century.</p>
<p>In the current election campaign the Conservatives’ main message is vote for us to stop a second independence referendum. They’re also challenging the Labour party to form a unionist alliance. That’s a win-win for them. They know an alliance is never going to happen, and it reminds everybody who might be thinking of voting Labour that they sided with the Conservatives in 2014.</p>
<p><strong>Q: The Scottish parliamentary system was designed to make it harder for one party to get the majority, but now the whole focus of this election is the majority. Why?</strong></p>
<p>We have 129 members of the Scottish parliament, 73 of which represent constituencies. The remaining 56 seats are made up of eight regions which each elect seven MSPs (members of the Scottish parliament) proportionately, using our formula called the <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/19209143.everything-wanted-know-dhondt-voting-system-holyrood-election/">D'Hondt system</a>. </p>
<p>This combination of first past the post and proportional representation means we’ve had a more colourful parliament than in the UK. We have Green politicians because they come in via the list, for example. This system is designed to produce coalitions and to stop outright majorities. It did that until 2011, when the SNP managed to break the system with the force of their popularity and win a majority (in 2016, the party fell short of a majority). </p>
<p>We’re now in the situation where people think 2011 can be recreated, which is actually quite unfair on the SNP. The polls show the SNP constituency vote <a href="https://ballotbox.scot/">at around 50%</a> – phenomenally high after 14 years in power. They will, I think, fall short of an overall majority, but will have a majority for independence if the Green vote delivers what it looks like delivering. </p>
<p><strong>Q: Can you explain the Alba party?</strong></p>
<p>Alex Salmond (the former first minister) has broken away from the SNP and set up Alba. He has taken a number of people with him who would be described as fundamental nationalists: people who want an independence referendum yesterday, definitely today, and not in two years’ time. They’re also very against some of the more socially liberal policies that the SNP have advocated under Sturgeon.</p>
<p>Salmond is asking people to vote SNP in their constituency vote and to vote for Alba on the list. His <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4485248f-bf6a-401e-8824-807e3b2010f2">argument</a> is that if you vote Alba, we could get a “super-majority” situation where two-thirds of MSPs are supporters of independence. It would then be impossible for the UK government to refuse a second referendum, is how the argument goes.</p>
<p>A problem for Salmond, and he has many, is that he will have to get somewhere between 6% and 8% of the list vote in every region to return members of the Scottish parliament in each. But the polls show that Alba is <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56889344">barely scraping 3%</a>. </p>
<p>It’s likely that he will manage to get to 6% in the north-east of Scotland. He has represented both the Banff & Buchan and Gordon constituencies in that region. He’s very well known and popular there. That would elect him to the Scottish parliament, but in my view there will be nobody else with him. That’s not a super majority. </p>
<p><strong>Q: What has led to the shift in independence support and do you think Yes would actually win a second referendum?</strong></p>
<p>Since January 2020 (at the time of the interview) there have been <a href="https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/?removed">25 opinion polls</a> on the constitutional question. 22 have shown Yes ahead, which is very new. I think there were only two polls in the run-up to 2014 that had Yes ahead. There have been two recent exceptions where No has started to climb again, and people suggest that might be to do with the success of the vaccine roll-out across the UK. But the reason for people moving from No to Yes is quite well evidenced and it’s to do with Brexit. </p>
<p>I was closely involved in the polling in the 2014 referendum. The targeting that we did broke Scotland down into five different categories of voters, with undecideds being a big wedge in the middle. That’s about 1 million Scots that we considered could be persuaded one way or the other, and both the Yes and No campaigns heavily focused on them. </p>
<p>When you looked at who they were and what they cared about, it boiled down to economic security. This is why so much of the No campaign focused on arguments around what the currency in an independent Scotland would be, who the lender of last resort would be, who would underpin pensions – all these big economic questions. </p>
<p>Those same people are up in the air just now, who could fall either way, but what’s changed since 2014? These are people aged 25 to 45 who tend to live in urban centres like Edinburgh, Glasgow or along the central belt. They are educated to university degree level mostly. </p>
<p>They are socially centre-left but economically centrist or centre right. By that I mean they are supporters of gay marriage but don’t want high taxes. They are passionately, proudly pro-European and all voted Remain. And they’re very angry about leaving the EU. </p>
<p>If presented with a binary choice of an independent Scotland in Europe with a progressive leader or staying in the UK led by Boris Johnson with a little-Britain Brexit mindset, they’re choosing the progressive independent Scotland in Europe. </p>
<p>They might not like it. They certainly don’t love it. But it’s better than what they’ve got. In short, Brexit has changed people’s minds.</p>
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<img alt="Protester holding up sign that says 'Scotland voted remain'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Brexit: 62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU at the 2016 EU referendum.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-united-kingdom-23rd-june-2018-1119225317">Ben Gingell/via Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p><strong>Q: If there’s a pro-independence majority, what are the options available to Nicola Sturgeon to hold a second referendum?</strong></p>
<p>She has zero options because she’s ruled out UDI (universal declaration of independence). I think she’s right to rule that out. The constitution is reserved to the UK parliament, so only the UK parliament can say yes to having a second referendum.</p>
<p>This all boils down to mandates and morality. If there’s a majority for independence, you would expect the UK government, as in 2011, to say yes to a referendum. But if there’s a majority for independence in the election, you will see the SNP demand the right to hold a referendum, and Boris Johnson will I think say no very quickly. The question is how long that no will hold for and the arguments that underpin it. </p>
<p>The first thing they’ll say is, not during a pandemic. They also might say, not now not ever, you said once in a generation. That’s a riskier strategy. And there’s a growing school of thought that if the majority is big, if independence or a second referendum feels inevitable, it’s in the UK government’s interests to go now rather than delay for a long period.</p>
<p>The UK government is currently spending a lot because of the pandemic. We’ve got one of the most right-wing chancellors in my lifetime and he’s spending like a left-wing socialist. So there’s lots of money coming to Scotland and lots of means by which you can demonstrate the value of the UK to Scotland. </p>
<p>In 18 months’ time, that spending has to stop. The UK government will then have to decide what taxes go up and what public sector saving decisions or cuts have to be made to balance the books. The longer you wait to hold a second referendum, the less advantageous the circumstances for the UK government.</p>
<p><strong>Q: How do you think everything will play out?</strong></p>
<p>There’ll be a lot of Punch and Judy-style back and forth. Every time the UK government says no, it will work in the SNP’s favour because it reaffirms everything they tell the electorate about the UK government not observing the will of the people of Scotland. Bear in mind that message has been hammered home consistently since the EU referendum. </p>
<p>Westminster considers itself a protector of the union and Boris Johnson describes himself as the minister for the union, but it never seems to amount to very much. In the past 12 months we’ve had the UK government announce a massive decentralisation around UK government departments, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-56380128">including to Scotland</a>. Equally it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/27/no-10-reportedly-wanted-union-flag-on-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-kits">has suggested</a> putting Union Jacks on vaccine vials to remind people that it’s the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine saving people right now.</p>
<p>But these are superficial arguments for the union. I’ve always said that to save the union, you need an argument of the head and an argument of the heart. The No campaign is very good with arguments of the head. They’ll point to Scotland’s balance sheet and falling oil revenues and the fact that Scotland benefits greatly from public spending redistributing wealth generated largely in London and the south east. </p>
<p>A problem with federalism is that there isn’t one clear definition of what a federalist Britain would look like. There will be different answers in different parts of the country. Also, to what degree would you devolve further powers? Many would argue that the benefit of the UK is the ability to share the same tax system to redistribute wealth, and a UK-wide social security system to spend the receipts of that taxation. </p>
<p>Other people will say federalism should allow you to have localised social security and localised income tax-raising powers, and that’s perfectly legitimate. But it would decrease the strength of my argument as to why the union is a good thing. So there’s no one common thread.</p>
<p><strong>Q: To what extent are Catalonia and Quebec useful comparisons?</strong></p>
<p>I don’t profess to be an expert on Catalonia. But the comparisons aren’t particularly strong because Catalonia is considered an area of substantial wealth and is a net contributor to Spain’s wider economy. Unionists in the UK will argue the reverse is the case with Scotland – especially with the oil price a fraction of what the <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-future/">2013 white paper</a> for Scottish independence was based on. </p>
<p>There’s a huge gap in the economics of Scottish independence, which leads a lot of people to say Scotland’s too wee, too poor, too stupid to be independent. As I understand the arguments in Catalonia, it’s the reverse. </p>
<p>I went to Quebec about two years ago. The province had two independence referendums in succession and then <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/30/terrebonne-hold-out-of-quebec-separatism-faces-end-of-the-dream">just seemed</a> to have had enough. The big changing factor was that after the second referendum, the nationalist parties started losing really heavily. </p>
<p>People assume, I think a bit lazily, that if there were a second independence referendum in Scotland and the No campaign won again that somehow support for nationalism would also fall through the floor. I’m not wholly convinced.</p>
<p><strong>Q: What’s the tenor of the debate in this Scottish election and how does it feel to be watching rather than taking part?</strong></p>
<p>I’m thoroughly enjoying it to be honest. Five years ago I was the one in the TV debates and running around the country doing photo calls. Now I’m an academic and I get to muse on it at leisure. </p>
<p>It doesn’t feel like the campaign has been set alight yet. I’m actually worried about turnout. I don’t think there’s huge awareness that the elections are taking place, because of the pandemic and the degree to which COVID is monopolising the news. </p>
<p>This also means the tenor is not as toxic and acrimonious as recent electoral contests in Scotland. I think it’s likely to stay that way, and something spectacular would have to happen in the next ten days for the SNP not to win. The constitution and COVID are the dominant issues. COVID is largely about competence and that works largely to Nicola Sturgeon’s credit. </p>
<p>The one sore point for her and her record is social care and elderly people being discharged from hospitals into care homes during the pandemic without being tested. That scandal doesn’t look like hurting her just yet. But she’s committed to a public inquiry into decisions she took during the pandemic, so that will be a very difficult issue for her in 12 months or so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159858/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kezia Dugdale is affiliated with the John Smith Centre which exists to make the positive case for politics and public service.</span></em></p>Ahead of the Scottish election on May 6, the former Scottish Labour leader explains what’s at stake – and what could happen next.Kezia Dugdale, Director, John Smith Centre, Senior Lecturer, School of Social & Political Sciences, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1598832021-04-29T10:54:32Z2021-04-29T10:54:32ZScotland: Why May election is crucial for independence movement, and the UK – podcast<p>In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly podcast</a>, as Scotland prepares to vote in landmark parliamentary elections on May 6, we explore why the question of independence from the UK is dominating the debate. And a team of researchers working with fruit flies, has discovered a biological switch that can turn neuroplasticity on and off in the brain. What might that mean?</p>
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<p>It’s been seven years since Scotland voted to remain in the UK in the 2014 independence referendum. At the time, it was billed as a once-in-a-generation vote, but now Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, argues that the UK’s Brexit from the European Union is a change significant enough to warrant a second referendum. Meanwhile, support has been growing for independence <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3ea5b867-9a3c-404e-b2f9-c644fee4e3bd">over the past few years</a>.</p>
<p>Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) is the largest pro-independence group. If pro-independence parties hold a majority in the Scottish parliament after the May 6 election – Sturgeon will ask the UK government in Westminster, led by Boris Johnson, for a second referendum on Scottish independence. But he’s unlikely to agree. </p>
<p>In this episode, we speak to three experts to explain what’s at stake and what could happen next. Kezia Dugdale, is director of the <a href="https://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/socialpolitical/johnsmith/">John Smith Centre</a> and a lecturer in public policy at the University of Glasgow, as well as a former leader of the Scottish Labour Party. She explains that a person’s stance on independence is “still the biggest dominating factor over how you will vote in party-political terms” in Scotland. Dugdale predicts that if there is a pro-independence majority, but Johnson’s government refuses to grant Scotland permission to hold a second referendum, “there’ll be a lot of Punch and Judy-style back and forth”. But she says that every time the UK government says no it will work in the SNP’s favour because, “it reaffirms everything they tell the electorate about the UK government not observing the will of the people of Scotland”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-has-changed-peoples-minds-on-independence-qanda-with-kezia-dugdale-former-scottish-labour-leader-159858">'Brexit has changed people's minds on independence': Q&A with Kezia Dugdale, former Scottish Labour leader</a>
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<p>Darren Nyatanga, a PhD candidate at the University of Liverpool, where he’s researching the constitutional impacts of Brexit on the UK union, explains the process through which a second referendum could happen. He says the referendum’s legitimacy is vital, particularly given the SNP’s wish for an independent Scotland to rejoin the EU. “If the EU does not recognise the legitimacy of independence,” he says, then its unlikely they will be forthcoming in “accepting them as a member state”.</p>
<p>And economist Graeme Roy, dean of external engagement at the <a href="https://www.gla.ac.uk/colleges/socialsciences/">College of Social Sciences at the University of Glasgow</a>, sets out the economic arguments used by both sides in the independence debate. Roy says that a lot has changed economically for Scotland since the 2014 referendum, particularly due to falling revenues from North Sea oil. “That really matters in a Scottish context,” he says, because it has higher public expenditure than the rest of the UK, “so oil revenues would have been one way to help it support that.”</p>
<p>For our next story, we hear about some new research into neuroplasticity – the brain’s ability to change its structure. The brains of young animals can change more easily than adults – which is why, for example, kids can learn languages more easily than adults. Many diseases are caused by to little or too much neuroplasticity – and being able to turn it off and on has obvious medical benefits. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03441-2">New research</a> published recently by Sarah Ackerman, postdoctoral fellow at the Institute of Neuroscience and Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of Oregon, and her team, on their research using fruit flies, looked into what controls these changes. The goal is to help fight diseases, but this work could also potentially unlock the superpowered learning that comes with a malleable brain. We talk to her about what she’s found. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/astrocyte-cells-in-the-fruit-fly-brain-are-an-on-off-switch-that-controls-when-neurons-can-change-and-grow-158601">Astrocyte cells in the fruit fly brain are an on-off switch that controls when neurons can change and grow</a>
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<p>And Moina Spooner, commissioning editor at The Conversation in Nairobi, Kenya, gives us her recommended reads for the week.</p>
<p>The Conversation Weekly is produced by Mend Mariwany and Gemma Ware, with sound design by Eloise Stevens. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/?hl=en">theconversationdotcom</a>. or via email on podcast@theconversation.com. You can also sign up to <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter?utm_campaign=PodcastTCWeekly&utm_content=newsletter&utm_source=podcast">The Conversation’s free daily email here</a>.</p>
<p>A transcript of this episode <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-whats-at-stake-in-may-elections-160042">is available here.</a></p>
<p>News clips in this episode are from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TmUP1StPf0">BBC</a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlMKebueygY">News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNMA9kra_fg">ITV</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYJPh0TIPKQ">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWNjKsUJnQU">Channel 4 News</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7GM4nK5axc">The Telegraph</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1PQBND3Xa4">CBS News</a>. </p>
<p><em>You can listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a>, or find out how else to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">listen here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Plus, how researchers have discovered a biological switch that can turn neuroplasticity on and off in the brain. Listen to episode 13 of The Conversation Weekly podcast.Gemma Ware, Head of AudioDaniel Merino, Associate Breaking News Editor and Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly PodcastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1106322019-01-30T09:41:20Z2019-01-30T09:41:20ZPressure on Nicola Sturgeon is intense, but there’s still room to be positive about second Scottish indyref<p>There have been two dramatic stories in Scottish politics in recent days. One has seen Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46961172">hold talks</a> with her UK counterpart Theresa May over the ongoing Brexit crisis; and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/27/nicola-sturgeon-alex-salmond-charges-wont-affect-scottish-independence-drive">confirming</a> she will clarify plans for a second Scottish independence referendum in the coming weeks. The other involved the shock of seeing Sturgeon’s predecessor Alex Salmond appear in court <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47001028">charged</a> with attempted rape and sexual assault. </p>
<p>What do these mean for the SNP and a second independence referendum? Salmond is the party’s most prominent figure of the last 30 years, who led the Scottish government for seven years and brought about the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">independence referendum</a> of 2014. There’s little that can be said about the specifics of this live legal case, but the fact any case has been brought can only be damaging to the SNP and the independence effort – contrary to Sturgeon’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/27/nicola-sturgeon-alex-salmond-charges-wont-affect-scottish-independence-drive">claims</a> that it would make no difference. There are also risks from the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46863074">numerous other inquiries</a> into alleged procedural misconduct over the Scottish government’s investigation of the Salmond allegations, including one into Sturgeon herself. </p>
<p>With the Brexit crisis there are both opportunities and threats – all tied to the independence question. It’s <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9248.12016">worth remembering</a> at the outset that much SNP electoral success from 2007-14 was not down to its backing independence but its attractiveness as a party of government and its ability to implement policy and govern effectively. </p>
<p>SNP popularity spiked following the independence referendum, in which Yes support rose from roughly a third to 45% of the electorate. To some extent, increased independence support gave the party a second electoral wind in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results">UK election</a> of 2015 and the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland/results">Scottish election</a> of 2016. At the same time, you have to acknowledge the SNP’s durability and success in winning successive elections in government during very economically hard times. </p>
<h2>The 2017 misstep</h2>
<p>But Scotland <a href="https://www.snp.org/the-council-tax-freeze-explained/">is now</a> 11 years into austerity, and the party has governed the whole time. The SNP minority government currently faces problems over <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45969866">the NHS</a>, <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/greens-will-not-back-snp-budget-over-council-funds-1-4863474">local government</a>, the <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/abellio-warned-it-could-be-stripped-of-scotrail-contract-1-4853331">Scotrail franchise</a>, Scottish levels of <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/19/scottish-workers-can-take-simple-steps-avoid-higher-snp-income/">taxation</a>, <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/nicola-sturgeon-responds-to-labour-criticism-of-snp-education-record-1-4847030">education</a> policy and a <a href="https://www.tes.com/news/teacher-pay-strikes-could-target-key-snp-figures">threatened strike</a> by schoolteachers. Despite these, opinion poll <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-use-your-constituency-vote-in-a-scottish-parliament-election-aske#line">support</a> for the party remains strong if not at <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-use-your-constituency-vote-in-a-scottish-parliament-election#line">the levels</a> of previous years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255952/original/file-20190128-39344-1nzpro0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-use-your-constituency-vote-in-a-scottish-parliament-election-aske#line">What Scotland Thinks</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Keeping that going is challenging, however, and the party has definitely made political missteps over independence. Look back to the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results">Brexit referendum</a> of June 2016 and you see the independence referendum that might have been, as 62% of Scots backed Remain against a UK Leave of 52%. Seeing the potential to convert this into Yes support north of 60%, the SNP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/02/nicola-sturgeon-snp-listening-exercise-europe-brexit-scottish-independence">launched</a> a short-lived precursor campaign to a second independence referendum. </p>
<p>It created a national survey consultation exercise on Brexit, independence, policy and identity, which <a href="https://mercinon.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/national-survey-claimed-final-response.png">yielded</a> about 2m responses – creating the dataset for a future referendum. The party also very publicly launched the fundraising website ScotRef, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40260769">raising about</a> half of its £1m target. </p>
<p>The referendum didn’t get off the ground, of course. <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-is-playing-great-politics-with-indyref2-but-victory-still-long-way-off-74784">Attempts</a> to get permission from the UK government were <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39291860/theresa-may-now-is-not-the-time-for-scotland-independence-vote">rebuffed</a> by May and then swept side by the UK <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40192707">election result</a> in 2017. The SNP lost a third of its seats, again for <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/laurie-macfarlane/five-reasons-why-snp-lost-seats-in-general-election">complex reasons</a>: among other factors, the party’s strong backing for EU Remain had alienated some who favoured Brexit, while No supporters who had previously backed the party <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15338579.indyref2-a-significant-motivator-against-snp-in-21-seat-loss-john-swinney/">deserted it</a> over the push for a second independence referendum. Salmond was among the SNP members who lost his seat. </p>
<p>The topic of another independence referendum has since been very difficult for Sturgeon and her party. In parallel to the unionist problem, there is internal pressure from party members and supporters and the wider Yes movement for another vote. This prompted <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45770801">substantial</a> public <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44005360">demonstrations</a> by independence supporters in 2018. </p>
<p>The party has three choices: demand another referendum, wait and see or hold one without London’s permission. On the latter option, there is regular talk among campaigners about doing a Catalan-style DIY referendum. The legal process would be murky, however, and opponents would probably boycott the poll and damage the legitimacy of the result. This would raise problems for international recognition and EU membership, to say the least. </p>
<p>Waiting also has its problems, though, as the SNP’s 2016 “<a href="https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-does-the-snp-have-a-mandate-for-a-referendum-on-scotland-s-future/">mandate</a>” for <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-herald/20181015/281702615679968">another</a> referendum slides and the party and Yes movement lose momentum over independence. Seeking a new mandate in the next Scottish parliamentary election of 2021, when the SNP may lose more electoral support, has a serious downside too. </p>
<h2>The case for being positive</h2>
<p>That leaves “demand” to consider. And here there is some positive news for the SNP. In recent months, the party has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/07/nicola-sturgeon-snp-undoubtedly-back-peoples-vote-brexit">pivoted</a> towards backing a second EU referendum. This allows the party to link independence and Europe at a time of great stress and problems for the UK state and political system. </p>
<p>It also legitimises the idea of a second independence referendum and has allowed the SNP to reach Remain voters who do not support either the party or independence. What it does with Leavers is a continuing problem, though, and it forces SNP leaders to spend time asking for something they’re probably not going to get from the UK government – not least in Sturgeon’s latest meeting with May. </p>
<p>Were there a so-called people’s vote, a repeat of 2016’s Leave victory might well make the Union more unattractive to No supporters. On the other hand, a Remain would cancel the SNP’s 2016 mandate, but would at least neutralise the potentially tricky issue in any future independence campaign of Scotland wanting to be inside the EU while its southern neighbour was not. </p>
<p>If there is not to be another EU referendum, the question then is how the Brexit crisis spirals in the next few weeks. This presumably explains Sturgeon’s plan to reveal her hand on a second independence referendum soon but not yet – no doubt while continuing to distance herself and her party from the Salmond case and the related inquiries. It’s still extremely difficult to call how all this potentially impacts on independence. But without question, the stakes have never looked higher for the Yes campaign as the clock ticks down towards Brexit on March 29.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110632/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Lynch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the Brexit clock ticks down and the Alex Salmond crisis grows, the stakes have never been higher for his SNP successor.Peter Lynch, Senior Lecturer, Politics, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1076242018-11-28T09:20:32Z2018-11-28T09:20:32ZBrexit risks driving Scotland out of the Union – here’s what needs to change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247262/original/file-20181126-140519-398hvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">High road, low road. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/road-sign-showing-scotland-leaving-uk-677334625?src=u7sXVHeBJgo-H8Zezh8Yyg-1-7">mwreck</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the 1975 European Communities <a href="https://www.historyextra.com/period/modern/britain-decides-the-first-european-referendum/">membership referendum</a>, it was England that returned the biggest majority for the UK joining the common market: 69%. Northern Ireland’s 52% support was the smallest. Next came Scotland on 58%, though it included the only two regions in the UK that voted to stay out – the Shetland Islands and the Western Isles. </p>
<p>In the Brexit referendum of 2016, the political dynamics had reversed. Now voters in England and Wales voted to leave the EU, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. This difference has set the tone for much of what has happened since. As Theresa May <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-deal-sealed-in-brussels-believe-it-or-not-that-was-the-easy-bit-107582">returns</a> from Brussels to try and sell her withdrawal deal to parliament, the Union is straining like never before. </p>
<p>After the 2016 referendum came the inevitable <a href="http://www.skoutaris.eu/blog/2017/12/12/the-case-for-a-differentiated-brexit">debate</a> about whether Scotland and Northern Ireland could avoid leaving the single market against their will. Six months after the vote, the Scottish government published a <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-place-europe/">blueprint</a> for achieving this by Scotland becoming a member of the <a href="https://www.tripsavvy.com/countries-that-are-eea-countries-1626682">European Economic Area</a> after the UK leaves. The UK government <a href="http://www.parliament.scot/S5_European/General%20Documents/CTEER_Minister_M.Russell_2017.04.27.pdf">refused to</a> even entertain the idea of a differentiated Scottish Brexit. </p>
<p>Northern Ireland is being treated very differently. May made clear at her <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/17/key-points-from-mays-what-have-we-learned">Lancaster House speech</a> in early 2017 that the UK government aimed to leave the single market and customs union <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/article-50-letter-read-full-brexit-theresa-may-takes-uk-out-of-eu-statement-a7655566.html">without returning</a> a hard border to Ireland – after all, the Good Friday Agreement <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/47/section/1">constitutionally guaranteed</a> Northern Ireland’s right to remain in the EU. </p>
<p>In December of the same year, the UK and EU duly reached a <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf">political agreement</a> that introduced the “backstop”. This envisaged that if the UK-EU trade deal did not provide for a frictionless Irish border, either Northern Ireland or the UK as a whole would remain aligned to the single market and the customs union after Brexit took place. </p>
<h2>The new backstop</h2>
<p>The notion of Northern Ireland remaining in parts of the single market was outrageous to many, not least the DUP. The backstop now appears somewhat differently in the “Northern Ireland protocol” codified in the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf">draft withdrawal treaty</a>. Barring a deal on free trade, the UK as a whole will remain in a “bare bones” customs union with the EU; while Northern Ireland will additionally remain aligned to the single market rules necessary to maintain free movement of goods across the Irish border. </p>
<p>Despite the shift from the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement.pdf">original plan</a>, this has attracted significant opposition. Prominent Brexiteers, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/20/must-change-course-stand-bullying-tactics-brussels/">Dominic Raab</a> and <a href="https://news.sky.com/video/boris-backs-dups-stance-on-union-11561987">Boris Johnson</a>, the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45856784">Scottish Conservatives</a> and most importantly <a href="https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1062451464180785155">the DUP</a> argue that it threatens the “constitutional integrity” of the UK and the Union itself. </p>
<p>This is a gross and needless <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-eus-brexit-backstop-option-for-northern-ireland-doesnt-threaten-the-uks-constitutional-integrity-92869">overstatement</a>. Northern Ireland already significantly differentiates from the rest of the UK, even in the area of protection of fundamental rights. For example, same-sex marriages are not recognised there. The laws around abortion are much more restrictive (though may need reform after the UK supreme court <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44395150">said</a> earlier this year that they were incompatible with human rights law). </p>
<p>There are a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/cambridge-yearbook-of-european-legal-studies/article/territorial-differentiation-in-eu-law-can-scotland-and-northern-ireland-remain-in-the-eu-andor-the-single-market/C935B6423D5D5CDE84D833AC8026F564">number of cases</a> where different parts of a member state have different relationships with the EU – Greenland <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/15/original-grexit-greenland-split-eu/">is different</a> from the rest of Denmark, for example. The UK already makes extensive use of this flexibility. Gibraltar, for instance, is outside the customs union and <a href="https://www.accordancevat.com/vat-table/eu-vat-rates/">EU VAT area</a> and is not part of the Common Agricultural Policy. </p>
<p>The sovereignty of a member state over a region has never been challenged just because EU law is applied differently there. Neither is it unique for a region to be more aligned to the EU than the rest of its metropolitan state. The Austrian territories of Jungholz and Mittelberg have been part of the EU customs territory since it was established – decades before Austria joined the EU in 1995. Meanwhile, in a special protocol of the UK withdrawal agreement, it has been agreed that another region with a constitutional relationship with the UK will remain in the EU customs territory – the UK Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus. </p>
<h2>The need for change</h2>
<p>Notwithstanding the questionable legal validity of these arguments about the threat that the “Northern Ireland protocol” poses to the constitutional integrity of the UK, there remain serious questions about the current Union. The SNP certainly <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45779663">believes that</a> a hard Brexit will boost the case for Scottish independence, while also making much of the different treatment of Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>Yet the UK constitution is sufficiently flexible that it could accommodate the nations’ different aspirations concerning Europe. Scotland could be <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45560915">allowed</a> to tailor its own migration policy, for instance, as <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/politique-du-quebec-immigration">Quebec</a> does in Canada. The UK government’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/16/eu-withdrawal-bill-scotland-reject-holyrood-brexit">unwillingness</a> to consider such possibilities flies in the face of an important lesson from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum: <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29443603">promising more</a> devolved powers to Scotland near the end of the campaign helped to deliver the decision to stay in the Union. </p>
<p>The reality is that Brexit is an unprecedented challenge to the idiosyncratic UK constitution. Scotland’s inability to influence the withdrawal agreement has revealed important weaknesses around how the nations relate to the centre. The mechanisms for the intergovernmental cooperation between London and Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh should be strengthened to take into account the aspirations and positions of all UK constituent nations. </p>
<p>Brexit also needs to urgently respect the legislative autonomy of the devolved regions and avoid what has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/16/eu-withdrawal-bill-scotland-reject-holyrood-brexit">been called</a> a “Westminster power grab”. Finally, we need to dispense with any notion that Northern Ireland remaining in the EU single market is a threat to its place in the Union. </p>
<p>There is an inherent contradiction in the uber-unionist position as expressed by the likes of the DUP and certain members of the Conservative Party. Unless they actively respect the differentiation that devolution introduced, the nations might conclude that secession is the most appropriate way to exercise their right for self-determination. </p>
<p>As Prince Tancredi Falconeri said in the classic 1950s novel <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/arts/29iht-booktue.1.14826755.html">The Leopard</a>: “Everything must change so that everything can stay the same.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107624/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nikos Skoutaris has consulted the GUE/NGL parliamentary group of the European Parliament for Brexit-related issues. He has received funding from UACES and UEA's HEIF Impact Fund for the organisation of a conference on the 'De-Europeanisation of Border Conflicts: The Brexit Effect on Territorial Borders.</span></em></p>Brexit has shown the constitutional arrangements around devolution for what they are.Nikos Skoutaris, Senior Lecturer in European Union Law, School of Law, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/910202018-03-16T12:31:02Z2018-03-16T12:31:02ZMost Scottish authors want to break up the Union – why don’t they write about it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210298/original/file-20180314-113458-817acq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Barking. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/black-scotch-terrier-reads-old-books-163255019?src=8p3yLSeW5cSBtDNhrfeyeA-2-81">eAlisa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Glasgow’s annual book festival, <a href="https://www.ayewrite.com/Pages/default.aspx">Aye Write!</a>, is getting underway. Now in its 11th year, big name writers making appearances include the philosopher AC Grayling, broadcast journalist Robert Peston, crime writer Val McDermid and the mountaineer Chris Bonington. </p>
<p>The name of the festival is a play on “aye right”, a sarcastic Scottish way of saying no. This encapsulates much about the literary outlook in this part of the world – a vernacular defensiveness, a strident overcompensation in the face of imagined English snootiness about Glaswegian speech. A neutral might conclude that the arts in Scotland exist in a state of perma-froth at presumed metropolitan condescension. </p>
<p>If support for Scottish independence can be considered a proxy for such froth, there is certainly much in evidence. At the time of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">2014 independence referendum</a>, the Scottish literary scene was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/jul/19/scottish-independence-literature-nationalism">near unanimously</a> in favour of a Yes vote – nowhere close to the 55-45 split among the wider population. </p>
<p>This normally disputatious crowd felt overwhelmingly that the Union was inimical to Scottish culture and that the literary tradition would best flourish with independence. Little has changed since. Don’t expect much enthusiasm from them about Theresa May’s Britain at this year’s festival. </p>
<p>This mood didn’t begin in 2014, it must be said. In the Thatcher-hating days of 1988, the pro-devolution Campaign for a Scottish Assembly <a href="https://thecrownandtheunicorn.wordpress.com/the-claim-of-right-1989/">gave this</a> starkly black and white assessment:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Union has always been, and remains, a threat to the survival of a distinctive culture in Scotland.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Is this right? Most great Scottish writers – Robert Burns, Walter Scott and Robert Louis Stevenson, for example – thrived within the <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/legislativescrutiny/act-of-union-1707/">Union between</a> Scotland and England. Indeed, most Scots will know much more about their nation’s literature since 1707 than about previous eras. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210299/original/file-20180314-113462-1j499vn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210299/original/file-20180314-113462-1j499vn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210299/original/file-20180314-113462-1j499vn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210299/original/file-20180314-113462-1j499vn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210299/original/file-20180314-113462-1j499vn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210299/original/file-20180314-113462-1j499vn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210299/original/file-20180314-113462-1j499vn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210299/original/file-20180314-113462-1j499vn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bovvered? Robert Louis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/robert-louis-stevenson-vector-illustration-756799360?src=7zAqRQJSVv9GNFEfHCfOHw-1-0">Mario Breda</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>If the Union was such a problem for Scottish writers, why was it invisible in what they had to say? Why is there no tradition of anti-Unionist invective? Aside from Burns’s well-known <a href="http://www.robertburns.org/works/344.shtml">1791 poem</a> condemning the “parcel o’ rogues” who “bought and sold” Scotland “for English gold”, the Union is at best an absent presence. Even today it receives little attention from Scottish writers – why? </p>
<h2>Before nationalism</h2>
<p>Scottish literature’s relationship with the Union is the focus of a new book of essays which we have edited, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/literature-and-union-9780198736233?cc=us&lang=en&">Literature and Union: Scottish Texts, British Contexts</a>. The most compelling explanation for the lack of literary attention to the Union is that until recently, other questions were more important to Scottish writers, especially in the 18th and 19th centuries. </p>
<p>In particular, partisanship and religion long trumped national identity. Indeed, they were deeply interwoven, shaping two distinctive mythical representations of Scotland. </p>
<p>One was Presbyterian and democratic, the myth of Scotland’s godly <a href="http://www.covenanter.org.uk/whowere.html">Covenanting</a> tradition. The other was Episcopalian, royalist and Jacobite, the cause of Bonnie Prince Charlie and the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Forty-five-Rebellion">Forty-five Rising</a>. Each reached back to earlier periods – the Covenanters claimed to be the true heirs of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/history/articles/scottish_reformation/">Scottish Reformation</a>; Jacobite sympathisers were entranced by the romantic plight of <a href="http://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofScotland/Mary-Queen-of-Scots/">Mary, Queen of Scots</a>, imprisoned and finally beheaded by a Protestant queen. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.walterscott.lib.ed.ac.uk/works/novels/waverley.html">Walter Scott’s Waverley</a> (1814) might be the classic example of the Jacobite representation, recounting many of the events of 1745 from a perspective very sympathetic to the Highland rebels. It was followed by a long stream of Jacobite literature – and Scott himself returned to the theme both in <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-centuries-before-marvel-and-star-wars-walter-scotts-rob-roy-was-the-first-modern-anti-hero-89421">Rob Roy</a> (1817) and <a href="http://www.walterscott.lib.ed.ac.uk/works/novels/redgaun.html">Redgauntlet</a> (1824). </p>
<p>Depictions of Covenanters are variously positive and negative in Scottish literature. Many 19th-century novels present them as heroes for their democratic outlook, with their roots in the culture of ordinary folk. John Galt’s <a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/30749">Ringan Gilhaize</a> (1823) is one example, telling the story of three generations of rural people.</p>
<p>Other writers are repelled by the illiberal and philistine totalitarianism they discern in the tradition. The most notorious example is James Hogg’s 1824 satire, <a href="https://theconversation.com/confessions-of-a-justified-sinner-captures-the-modern-condition-perfectly-46298">The Private Memoirs and Confessions of a Justified Sinner</a>, whose lead character considers that having attained his place among God’s saved, he has carte blanche to commit terrible crimes. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210300/original/file-20180314-113472-1xsj4pl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210300/original/file-20180314-113472-1xsj4pl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210300/original/file-20180314-113472-1xsj4pl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210300/original/file-20180314-113472-1xsj4pl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210300/original/file-20180314-113472-1xsj4pl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=701&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210300/original/file-20180314-113472-1xsj4pl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210300/original/file-20180314-113472-1xsj4pl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210300/original/file-20180314-113472-1xsj4pl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Hugh McDiarmid.</span>
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<p>Nationalism took hold on the Scottish literary scene over the course of the 20th century, primarily under the enduring influence of <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=LeCqBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA40&lpg=PA40&dq=Hugh+Macdiarmid+Reformation&source=bl&ots=LPaq_MR_uw&sig=Sq2__1BhbFFocYPjpPXjGayITZk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjK0fSdj8nZAhUYM8AKHYO4AkQQ6AEIOzAC">Hugh MacDiarmid</a>. Even so, he and others held to a view that Scotland’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/history/articles/scottish_reformation/">Reformation</a> had been just as bad, if not worse, than the Union. For McDiarmid, it was the founding of the Protestant church – and not the merger with England – that was the beginning of the repression of Scottish folk and their authentic culture. </p>
<p>Novels and poems about Covenanting and Jacobitism still abound today. James Robertson, for example, who is <a href="https://www.ayewrite.com/Pages/Whats-On.aspx#/event/de1f87b9-938b-42b2-ab83-a85d00ea01ca">appearing</a> at this year’s Aye Write!, makes sport with Covenanting fanaticism in <a href="https://www.harpercollins.co.uk/9781841151892/the-fanatic">The Fanatic</a> (2000) and <a href="http://www.scotgeog.com">The Testament of Gideon Mack</a> (2006). Robertson has also written the only novel that has brought Scottish nationhood into focus in recent years: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/aug/15/and-land-lay-still-robertson">And the Land Lay Still</a> (2010). More generally, the Union remains a submerged and largely invisible feature of the Scottish literary landscape.</p>
<h2>Stark contrasts</h2>
<p>While it is true that the Union never enjoyed much of a fanfare among Scottish writers of previous generations, it was rarely if ever the focus of their work. Several even made conspicuous contributions to British – indeed to English – national identities. How else do we account for the fact that the figure of John Bull was the coinage of a Scottish doctor, <a href="http://www.oxfordscholarlyeditions.com/view/10.1093/actrade/9780198127192.book.1/actrade-9780198127192-book-1">John Arbuthnot</a>, and Rule, Britannia the work of the Scottish poet, <a href="https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/45404/rule-britannia">James Thomson</a>? </p>
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<p>It is hard to imagine a Scottish writer expressing a similar sentiment in their work today. Yet the reluctance to write about independence has continued, despite writers’ enthusiasm for the cause. It is as if the literary tradition weighs heavy on their shoulders and encourages them to look elsewhere for inspiration. </p>
<p>In sum, the relationship between Scottish literature and the Union turns out to be much more tangled, ironic and surprising than might have been expected. Today’s nationalists do indeed dominate Scotland’s literary scene, and will undoubtedly be in force at Aye Write!, but they do not have all the best tunes. It will be fascinating to see to what extent this changes in future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Kidd receives funding from the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland. He is affiliated with These Islands and Scotland in Union. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gerard Carruthers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The politics may have changed over the years, but the literary obsessions of ‘northern Britain’ seem hard to shake.Colin Kidd, Professor of History, University of St AndrewsGerard Carruthers, Francis Hutcheson Professor of Scottish Literature, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/874102017-11-14T14:29:42Z2017-11-14T14:29:42ZWill Alex Salmond’s RT show make him a Kremlin tool?<p>The decision of former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond to front a weekly political chat show on Russian international channel RT has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/10/alex-salmond-criticised-over-hosting-talk-show-for-russian-broadcaster">widely criticised</a> across the British political and media mainstream. Why would a prominent Western politician risk his reputation by colluding with what many believe to be an propaganda instrument of the Kremlin?</p>
<p>RT’s interest in Salmond is easy enough to fathom. The channel has been sympathetic to Scottish independence, of which Salmond remains a leading proponent. You might expect Putin to back anything that undermines the UK, of course. Hence Sputnik, another state-owned Russian news outlet, <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/russian-backed-sputnik-news-channel-lands-in-edinburgh-1-4199563">recently established</a> an Edinburgh office. </p>
<p>Arguably, RT is more focused on the UK after <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/rt-agrees-to-register-as-an-agent-of-the-russian-government/2017/11/09/bd62f9a2-c558-11e7-aae0-cb18a8c29c65_story.html">the US forced it</a> to register as a foreign agent. The Alex Salmond Show was unveiled soon after <a href="https://www.rt.com/shows/stan-collymore-show/">The Stan Collymore Show</a>, which is a means of extending reach ahead of Russia’s World Cup next year. RT also seems to have a following in Scotland, with pro-independence youth making up a significant proportion of its Twitter followers.</p>
<h2>Editorial power</h2>
<p>Salmond has been guaranteed full editorial independence, making the show with his own company and not in-house at RT. He <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/alex-salmond-show_uk_5a057b03e4b05673aa58b83f">points out</a> he has appeared on RT several times and was once very critical of Russia’s actions in Syria. RT often publicises the full independence it grants star presenters, as a point of difference with the likes of the BBC. <a href="https://www.rt.com/shows/larry-king-now/">Larry King’s show</a> is another example and is made by the host’s production company. </p>
<p>The channel formerly known as Russia Today has definitely evolved since its 2005 launch, partly in response to worsening relations between Russia and the West. Having launched to project a positive Russia to the world, it morphed into the channel of choice for those hostile to perceived US hegemony, then became a propaganda weapon for the Russian state in the “information war” that <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-western-plans-to-fight-putins-propaganda-war-could-backfire-42868">reached its zenith</a> following the 2014 Ukraine crisis.</p>
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<p>On the whole, however, RT is a mixed bag. It has broadcast some crude, misleading – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/war-of-words-how-europe-is-fighting-back-against-russian-disinformation-65444">sometimes downright fictitious</a> – material as news. Some shows are so biased as to be an affront to the intellect. Yet other stories really do provide alternative perspectives on important events. RT’s Yemen coverage has been impressive, for example, while large parts of the Western media have turned a blind eye to the conflict. </p>
<p>It is therefore simplistic to characterise RT merely as a tool of Kremlin propaganda, with chief executive Margarita Simonyan dutifully carrying out endless instructions from Vladimir Putin. For one thing, Kremlin narratives must be made suitable for the foreign environments in which RT operates. This means ignoring some Kremlin positions and even contradicting others – RT’s <a href="http://www.participations.org/Volume%2012/Issue%201/35.pdf">positive promotion</a> of gay culture during the Sochi Olympics was a case in point. </p>
<p>Presenters such as Oksana Boiko, Larry King and George Galloway have strong independent personalities and are never going to be state operatives. Others, including <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Abby-Martin-Responds-to-New-York-Times-Allegations-20170108-0030.html">Abby Martin</a> and Martyn Andrews, have been unafraid to contradict Putin in the past (though <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/rt-host-who-criticized-russias-ukraine-invasion-is-leaving-t?utm_term=.olKYzYWKmA#.fe48p8GRWX">Martin left</a> in 2015). The further from senior management, the more likely it is that the “Kremlin narrative” will be transformed.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194594/original/file-20171114-26423-rntc8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194594/original/file-20171114-26423-rntc8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194594/original/file-20171114-26423-rntc8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194594/original/file-20171114-26423-rntc8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194594/original/file-20171114-26423-rntc8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194594/original/file-20171114-26423-rntc8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194594/original/file-20171114-26423-rntc8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194594/original/file-20171114-26423-rntc8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Donald Trump on Larry King’s show.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">RT</span></span>
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<p>Meanwhile, a <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf">US intelligence report</a> earlier this year was probably wrong to conflate RT’s output with the “hackers”, “trolls” and “bots” who interfered in US and French elections (the Western media <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/why-russias-facebook-ad-campaign-wasnt-such-a-success/2017/11/03/b8efacca-bffa-11e7-8444-a0d4f04b89eb_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-f%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.6871a3da20e3">exaggerated</a> their impact in any case). The report’s credibility was undermined by drawing on material from 2009. </p>
<h2>Western drift</h2>
<p>So you need a <a href="https://reframingrussia.com">more nuanced analysis</a> of RT to make sense of why someone like Salmond would work with it. Salmond’s show is a marriage of convenience between two opportunistic agents. It is also an indication of how the ideological landscape has reconfigured over the past two decades – as Western power ebbs to China. Brexit may be the dying gasp of Great Britain, clinging to its image as an imperial power capable of thriving alone; meanwhile, the rise of Scottish nationalism merely confirms the danger of the UK fragmenting. </p>
<p>It should also be said that Putin’s paranoid aggression on the international stage is Russia’s own version of the last imperial gasp. In this sense, the alliance of Salmond and RT is entirely logical: two antagonists seeking to dismantle the British state for different reasons.</p>
<p>The outrage in the UK at RT’s opportunism overlooks the growing global market for alternative output created by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/media-blog/2014/jun/12/objectivity-and-impartiality-in-digital-news-coverage">changing</a> worldwide <a href="https://eclass.uoa.gr/modules/document/file.php/MEDIA279/Social%20Media/With%20Facebook,%20Blogs,%20and%20Fake%20News,%20Teens%20Reject%20Journalistic%20%E2%80%9CObjectivity%E2%80%9D.pdf">attitudes</a>: the growing hostility in many parts of the world to Western superiority, to journalistic objectivity and impartiality, to parliamentary democracy, to Western capitalist monopolies. </p>
<p>Salmond, having exhibited open contempt for <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/alex-salmond-bbc-bias-was-significant-factor-in-deciding-scottish-independence-referendum-10506491.html">the “bias”</a> of the BBC and the London establishment against Scottish nationalism in the past, is clearly confident his RT show will not be met with the same outrage throughout Scotland – albeit current first minister Nicola Sturgeon <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-41941359">has taken</a> a different view. All the same, imagine how far removed attitudes are likely to be in Latin America or India or the Middle East. </p>
<p>In the end, Salmond’s initiative is a gamble. Whether British politicians should appear on RT cannot be answered simply. It’s one thing to appear on Worlds Apart, where Boiko conducts interviews in an open and often vicious debate. It’s quite another to appear on RT “flagship show” Cross-Talk, where real debate is usually a pretence and Putin’s critics are outnumbered by his supporters. </p>
<p>Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and the many other politicians from mainstream British political parties who have appeared on RT presumably consider that the importance of the issues they are appearing to talk about outweigh the risks of being seen to legitimise Putin. Equally, for others, the particular means that is RT will never justify such an end. </p>
<p>Salmond has in the past proved an astute reader of the political runes. RT represents for him a platform for indulging his career and promoting the causes he believes in. </p>
<p>It is therefore premature to conclude that Salmond’s latest venture marks his decline into irrelevance and disrepute. What it means for RT, and for the so-called information war is rather less clear – and perhaps still more intriguing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87410/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Hutchings receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vera Tolz receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>Scotland’s former first minister has sparked outrage in the UK with his latest move.Stephen Hutchings, Professor Of Russian Studies, University of ManchesterVera Tolz, Sir William Mather Professor of Russian Studies, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/849222017-09-29T14:29:12Z2017-09-29T14:29:12ZSpain’s disregard for Catalan press freedom is setting a dangerous precedent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188184/original/file-20170929-21094-1ke7rej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protest in Barcelona against the Spanish government on September 21. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/barcelona-catalonia-spain-september-21-2017-720040666?src=fceMukMuLGKltsCRE06sow-1-42">Riderfoot</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the run-up to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/catalonias-independence-referendum-how-the-disputed-vote-led-to-crackdown-82277">Catalan independence referendum</a> on October 1 – ahead of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/01/dozens-injured-as-riot-police-storm-catalan-ref-polling-stations">police attacks on voters</a> on the day – the lines between protecting the Spanish constitution and curtailing freedom of expression became increasingly blurred. More than 140 websites promoting the referendum <a href="https://comunicacio21.cat/noticies-comunicacio21/123896-la-guardia-civil-bloqueja-144-webs-pro-referendum">have been</a> closed by the Spanish government in recent weeks. </p>
<p>Reports have been rife of tensions between police and journalists – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-catalonia-tax/from-new-tax-office-catalonia-hopes-to-grab-billions-from-madrid-idUSKCN1BW10A">including raids</a> on newspaper offices, broad threats of legal consequences, and an <a href="http://www.sindicatperiodistes.cat/content/m%C3%A9s-de-300-assistents-la-concentraci%C3%B3-en-defensa-de-la-llibertat-dinformaci%C3%B3">organised protest</a> by journalists against harassment. All this in parallel with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/27/europe-must-act-to-protect-rights-and-freedoms-of-catalans">the other hostilities</a> from Madrid: threats to arrest Catalan mayors, interference with civic budgets, mass police deployment and now the violence on the day itself. How do these attempts to control communication compare to other referendums – and how concerned should we be?</p>
<p>Ahead of the independence referendums in Scotland <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">in 2014</a> and Quebec <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29077213">in 1980 and 1995</a>, there were certainly accusations of media bias. In Scotland pro-independence activists <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29196912">gathered</a> outside BBC Scotland a couple of days before the vote to protest against alleged institutional bias in favour of the union with England. Meanwhile, independence campaigners were <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102194/Threats-intimidation-and-abuse-the-dark-side-of-the-Yes-campaign-exposed.html">continually accused</a> of being abusive on social media. </p>
<p>In Quebec’s second referendum, the French-speaking public broadcaster <a href="http://reporter-archive.mcgill.ca/Rep/r3113/media.html">was accused</a> of favouring the pro-independence vote and a parliamentary commission investigated possible bias. But for all the political conflict in these referendums, freedom of expression was never called into question – neither in the actions of the authorities nor <a href="http://news.sky.com/story/catalonia-the-messy-reality-of-the-referendum-spain-wants-shut-down-11057965">by putting up</a> potential legal obstacles to a referendum taking place. </p>
<p>To be sure, there has also been a row about media bias in Catalonia. This has been magnified by the fact that only the pro-independence side is campaigning – the referendum is not recognised by those opposed to independence and is regarded as illegitimate by Madrid. </p>
<p>Media outlets sympathetic to independence look more partisan because they only have one campaign to cover, while unionist outlets positioned against the referendum – which are roughly comparable in number – fall equally foul because they report the situation as a political dispute and not as a campaign at all. This reporting goes way beyond presenting two political options for Catalans. The unionist media talk openly about “the pro-independence offensive”, while the pro-referendum media focus on the “state challenge to Catalonia”.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188183/original/file-20170929-21094-3z49gq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188183/original/file-20170929-21094-3z49gq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188183/original/file-20170929-21094-3z49gq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188183/original/file-20170929-21094-3z49gq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188183/original/file-20170929-21094-3z49gq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188183/original/file-20170929-21094-3z49gq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188183/original/file-20170929-21094-3z49gq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monica Terribas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mònica_Terribas_2017.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, anti-referendum activists and others <a href="http://www.elnacional.cat/ca/politica/concentracio-ultra-terribas-catalunya-radio_195705_102.html">gathered outside</a> the Catalan Public Radio Station on September 27 chanting against pro-referendum editorial lines and carrying threatening signs against prominent news anchor Mònica Terribas, whom they regard as one of the key culprits. At pro-referendum events, meanwhile, activists <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.es/2017/09/22/lo-que-le-hicieron-a-una-reportera-de-lasexta-en-barcelona-tras-boicotear-su-directo_a_23219325/">have carried</a> signs saying that the generally unionist Spanish media does not represent them. </p>
<h2>Media neutering</h2>
<p>The activities of the Spanish authorities have taken things to a whole different level, however. Earlier in September, Spanish police <a href="http://www.ara.cat/en/Spanish-HQ-several-Catalan-newspapers_0_1870613118.html">visited or wrote to</a> a number of Catalan news organisations which had aired the <a href="http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170904/431057749241/emitido-tv3-primer-anuncio-oficial-referendum.html">official referendum campaign advertisement</a> to give them a letter from the Catalan Superior Court of Justice. The letter, which also went to all Catalan public institutions, did not forbid the adverts or declare them illegal, or even say explicitly that it was illegal to inform people about the referendum. </p>
<p>Instead it warned of possible criminal consequences from helping to bring the referendum about, without specifying what types of actions could fall into that category. The problem with such loose warnings has been the censorship that has come about: the daily newspaper <a href="http://www.ara.cat/media/Als-nostres-lectors_0_1866413587.html">Ara</a> decided not to publish any more campaign adverts, for example. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188185/original/file-20170929-23041-1s9iwcw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188185/original/file-20170929-23041-1s9iwcw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188185/original/file-20170929-23041-1s9iwcw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188185/original/file-20170929-23041-1s9iwcw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188185/original/file-20170929-23041-1s9iwcw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188185/original/file-20170929-23041-1s9iwcw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1154&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188185/original/file-20170929-23041-1s9iwcw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1154&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188185/original/file-20170929-23041-1s9iwcw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1154&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Omnium Cultural.</span>
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</figure>
<p>The Network of Local Television (La Xarxa de Comunicació Local) <a href="https://comunicacio21.cat/noticies-comunicacio21/123807-la-direccio-de-la-xarxa-ordena-no-entrevistar-alcaldes-fins-a-l-1-o">told its journalists</a> not to ask politicians questions about the referendum until the day after it had taken place. Acting on similar fears, Spanish public mail company Correos <a href="http://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/omnium-correos-revista-referendum_191976_102.html">stopped distributing</a> the news magazine Omnium Cultural to its subscribers because it contained pro-referendum advertising. </p>
<p>Of the 144 websites that have been blocked, most belong to cultural and political associations campaigning for an independence vote. Fourteen individuals <a href="http://www.catalannews.com/society-science/item/14-people-summoned-to-court-for-duplicating-referendum-website">have been</a> called before a judge for copying the codes of some of the sites in question. </p>
<p>The Spanish military police association, the Guardia Civil, meanwhile, <a href="http://www.catalannews.com/society-science/item/guardia-civil-officers-sue-catalan-public-radio-news-anchor">is suing</a> Mònica Terribas. It accuses the news anchor of endangering police operations by asking listeners to report on anti-referendum raids by the forces. In all, media observer media.cat <a href="https://twitter.com/GrupBarnils/status/913715948774940672">has reported</a> than 64 situations where freedom of expression has been affected or disrupted in relation to the referendum. </p>
<p>Faced with such accusations, the Spanish government <a href="http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20170928/gobierno-dice-no-pretende-limitar-libertad-expresion-1-sino-evitar-acto-ilegal/1623620.shtml">has said</a> it does not want to restrict freedom of expression in Catalonia. Its actions, it says, are aimed at guaranteeing the order against a referendum which was <a href="http://time.com/4933069/catalonia-independence-vote-spain-suspended/">laid down by</a> the Spanish constitutional court a few weeks ago. </p>
<p>But even before the outbreak of referendum day violence, Spain already found itself in territory for which it is hard to find comparisons in the West. Article 10 of the <a href="http://www.echr.coe.int/Documents/Convention_ENG.pdf">European Convention on Human Rights</a>, to which Spain is of course a signatory, lays down the principle of freedom of expression quite clearly. It talks about the right of people to “receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers”. </p>
<p>Yet little or nothing has been said by the international community in this regard. The situation is troubling to say the least. If there are no consequences, particularly in light of the latest developments on the ground, it will set a dangerous precedent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84922/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mariola Tarrega does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When you put together the efforts of the Spanish authorities to curb media coverage of the Catalan referendum, you have a deeply worrying picture.Mariola Tarrega, Teaching fellow, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/812172017-07-19T14:38:30Z2017-07-19T14:38:30ZJack McConnell: United Kingdom can still shape Europe’s future despite Brexit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178701/original/file-20170718-10303-s5ioe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jack's back. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&authuser=0&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1440&bih=756&q=jack+mcconnell&oq=jack+mcconnell&gs_l=img.3..0l4j0i30k1l2j0i24k1l4.1074.1074.0.1656.2.2.0.0.0.0.70.70.1.1.0....0...1.2.64.img..1.1.69.0.8f5qK_wpQWw#q=jack+mcconnell&hl=en&authuser=0&tbm=isch&tbs=sur:fc&imgrc=z1IdNjMnN3bXNM:">DFID</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ten years after stepping down as first minister of Scotland, Jack McConnell remains a busy man. I caught up with him by Skype in New York, where he was attending the <a href="https://www.un.org/ecosoc/en/events/2017-4">UN meetings on development</a>. </p>
<p>Now a member of the House of Lords, he is a veteran of the devolution campaigns of the 1990s and a strong European. As first minister, he was a leader of the <a href="http://cor.europa.eu/en/activities/interregionalgroups/Pages/legislative-power.aspx">movement for</a> a stronger role for devolved regions and nations in the EU. What, I asked him, went wrong with last year’s <a href="http://cor.europa.eu/en/activities/interregionalgroups/Pages/legislative-power.aspx">Brexit referendum</a>? </p>
<p>The problem, he tells me, was an absence of a vision for Europe. The Remain side could not explain where Europe was going, or the need for a broader solidarity. Instead, they focused narrowly on economic issues like the importance of the single market and on negative campaigning. David Cameron “had nothing positive to say”, repeating the mistake he made in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides">Scottish referendum of 2014</a> that helped bring the No side to the brink of defeat. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, McConnell believes the Brexit battle is over and sees little prospect of reversing the decision. He calls the country’s departure from the European Union “pretty inevitable”. Nor is he impressed by the current focus on the UK keeping the single market or something very close to it – recently <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2007/scottish_parliment/html/region_99999.stm">floated by</a> the likes of Chancellor Philip Hammond, for instance. </p>
<h2>Future of Europe</h2>
<p>Both inside the UK and elsewhere in Europe, McConnell detects a tendency to see the single market as an end in itself. He believes it needs to be part of a bigger picture. Instead of focusing on the technicalities of the single market, Europe needs a broader vision based on solidarity and the whole of the European continent. Instead of focusing narrowly on economics, it could take in a wider agenda, including security threats, climate change and values. </p>
<p>Even though the UK is leaving the EU, he thinks it could still take the lead in these respects by forging links and shifting public opinion. That, of course, would require some rethinking in the UK parties, including his own Labour party. The present Labour leadership under Jeremy Corbyn, he says, shows more interest in revolutionary movements around the world than in the future of Europe.</p>
<p>This overarching failure by politicians in Europe to focus on what the continent could become was one of McConnell’s main themes in a speech he recently gave in Glasgow at the <a href="https://councilforeuropeanstudies.org/conferences/upcoming-conferences/11-meetings-and-conferences/312-2017-program-highlights">International Conference of Europeanists</a>. Focusing on the growing gap between politicians and the public, he talked about the role this played in the crisis in Europe and Brexit – as well as in the arrival of “outsiders” as leaders. </p>
<p>He urged a greater role for Europe in global poverty and development, a matter he pursued as first minister and to which he has devoted a lot of time in the House of Lords. Europeans can “help rekindle our own sense of purpose”, he told the audience, by sharing with other countries their experiences in power-sharing in areas with distinct identities within countries such as Scotland, Bavaria and the Basque country. </p>
<h2>Little Britain</h2>
<p>In the run-up to the Brexit referendum, McConnell tells me that he was not optimistic about the Remain campaign. He had predicted Leave’s victory and Scotland’s decision to Remain. What took him more by surprise was the result’s failure to reinvigorate the Scottish independence movement – he had expected it to become unstoppable. </p>
<p>In fact, he says, Brexit has made it harder for the SNP to win the argument: an independent Scotland in the EU risks being cut off from the UK market, which is more important for Scotland than the European single market. He also believes the public is wary of further change and uncertainty after two difficult referendums. </p>
<p>Instead, he says, Brexit provides an opportunity for securing more devolution for Scotland. Powers should come directly back from Brussels to Edinburgh – contrary to the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/16/repeal-bill-has-caused-constitutional-crisis-says-scotlands/">proposals</a> in the Withdrawal Bill published shortly before we spoke. </p>
<p>If powers were repatriated to the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, he believes this would allow them a more equal relationship with the UK government. Edinburgh could share powers in areas like fishing on a voluntary basis, for example, rather than by imposition from London. </p>
<p>McConnell also sees possibilities for Scotland to be more active on the world stage, something he considers neglected in ten years of an SNP government focused on independence. The paradiplomatic activity that he spearheaded as first minister was, he insists, a way of reinforcing the UK by recognising its plurality. He says it reflected the party’s commitment to “shared sovereignty, multilateralism and international cooperation”.</p>
<p>McConnnell’s vision of the UK accords with recent thinking in Scottish Labour circles. This includes Gordon Brown’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/18/gordon-brown-to-push-patriotic-third-option-for-more-powerful-scotland-after-brexit">interventions</a> and the <a href="https://labourlist.org/2017/02/scottish-labour-commits-to-federalism-as-dugdale-reaffirms-her-support-of-the-union/">adoption of federalism</a> as official Labour policy, at Scottish if not UK level. </p>
<p>As the post-referendum research in the Centre on Constitutional Change <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/debating-scotland-9780198789819?cc=gb&lang=en&">has shown</a>, it also chimes with public opinion, which has consistently wanted something less than independence but more than devolution. Even as opinion seemingly shifted away from No and towards Yes during the 2014 independence campaign, the underlying attitudes remained rather stable. It is just that more people thought that voting Yes was the better way to get there. </p>
<p>The question is whether Labour has arrived here too late as political opinion has polarised between the SNP’s independence and the Conservatives’ increasingly intransigent unionism, a polarisation accentuated by Brexit. The current disarray of the UK government and the lack of a majority at Westminster may open up some of these issues. If it does, it is not clear that the opposition parties are in a position to seize the opportunity.</p>
<p>Faced with this question, McConnell returns to the theme of vision and big ideas. He sees a need for a renewal of the political class, away from the professional politicians who have come to prominence since the 1970s, for whom politics is a way of life. </p>
<p>He agrees that Jeremy Corbyn has raised horizons, although not as much as has been claimed. Corbyn has showed a willingness to “stand up for ordinary people” and criticise the behaviour of private companies as well as government. On the other hand, says McConnell, he can be seen as part of a trend towards celebrity politicians and outsiders; a symptom of the current crisis rather than an answer. </p>
<p>In short, McConnell sees good and bad in the current climate: he welcomes the decline of the old deference and the growth of transparency but believes it has been accompanied by a crisis of faith in institutions and a loss of trust. There have been achievements in global development but severe poverty remains. Again and again, he stresses the role of ideas and vision in helping to turn this around. In a world that is increasingly voting against technocrats, the message is that ideas really do matter after all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Keating does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scotland’s former first minister on Brexit, Scotland and the need for a new generation of visionaries.Michael Keating, Chair in Scottish Politics, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/789572017-06-06T14:56:46Z2017-06-06T14:56:46ZNicola Sturgeon’s falling popularity could be disastrous for the Scottish independence cause<p>As the UK election reaches the final straight, the Scottish National Party has reason to be anxious. First were the predictions of a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40105177">Tory revival</a> north of the border, then came <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/what-does-labour-s-poll-revival-mean-for-scotland-1-4458233">signs of life</a> from Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. </p>
<p>Now SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon’s approval ratings have <a href="https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/labour-rallies-new-scottish-opinion-poll">sharply declined</a>. They have pitched into the red for the first time, hitting -4 compared to +14 as recently as last September. This has made the Scottish first minister the least popular among the party leaders in Scotland. As if to underline the point, she then <a href="https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/nicola-sturgeon-given-rough-ride-indyref2-question-time-special/">faced</a> a noticeably hostile audience in the BBC’s Question Time programme. </p>
<p>Widely viewed as an asset until recently, not least in the UK election of 2015 when the SNP <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland">swept the board</a> in Scotland, how worried should party strategists be about this change in Sturgeon’s fortunes? How is it likely to affect the party at the election and the prospects for holding a second independence referendum in the next few years?</p>
<h2>Indyref blues</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-is-playing-great-politics-with-indyref2-but-victory-still-long-way-off-74784">constitutional debate</a> in Scotland is undoubtedly partly to blame for Sturgeon’s drop in popularity – much though she would deny it. Indeed, this was perhaps to be expected when Scottish independence divides the country virtually in two. </p>
<p>Alex Salmond, Sturgeon’s predecessor, saw his approval ratings <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/119490/can-alex-salmond-and-snp-survive-scottish-independence-vote">decline</a> in the run-up to the first <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">independence referendum</a> in 2014. This was mainly about voters who were against independence viewing him more unfavourably. In both cases, the messenger is being viewed by their message to some extent. </p>
<p>Sturgeon had the advantage of becoming leader after that first referendum. She gained the support of voters supportive of independence, but because she did not threaten another referendum at that stage, her disapproval ratings among unionists started low. This did not change during the 2015 UK election, when she performed well in the UK-wide TV leaders’ debate. She convincingly portrayed the SNP as progressive, anti-austerity and standing up for Scotland – demanding greater powers from Westminster. </p>
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<p>The mood around Sturgeon seems to have begun to shift after the EU referendum, in which a substantial proportion of SNP supporters <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/747938/Brexit-Scotland-independence-THIRD-SNP-supporters-voted-Brexit-Sturgeon-embarrassment">backed Brexit</a> contrary to party policy. She may have <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-back-in-play-after-brexit-shock-with-a-note-of-caution-61457">sounded statesmanlike</a> on television on the morning after the vote, but greater support for a second independence referendum on the back of the Brexit vote <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-be-fooled-by-sturgeon-well-see-no-indyref2-for-scotland-until-brexit-is-clearer-67026">did not materialise</a>. </p>
<p>Even after she formally <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-is-playing-great-politics-with-indyref2-but-victory-still-long-way-off-74784">demanded</a> a second referendum earlier this year, support for independence has at best <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls">flatlined</a> below victory territory. Even a substantial minority of Yes supporters <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/poll-blow-nicola-sturgeon-scottish-independence-support-drops/">disagree</a> with holding another referendum any time soon. This has made the SNP vulnerable to attacks from unionists, particularly Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson. </p>
<h2>The independence problem</h2>
<p>Does all this matter? No and yes. The SNP will be relieved to have seen that Davidson’s approval ratings are <a href="https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390009-stv-election-poll-snp-to-hold-50-seats-amid-tory-gains/">declining too</a>, down 26 points to +5. While Davidson’s anti-independence message resonates with unionists, Scotland’s future is also affecting her popularity: her disapproval ratings are increasing among the over 40% or so of voters who support independence. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the SNP have arguably failed to successfully link Davidson to Theresa May’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-theresa-may-an-unlucky-gambler-or-just-a-bad-one-78774">electoral horror show</a> in England. Sturgeon and her party are now pushing harder with messages about an anti-Tory campaign, but it feels somewhat belated. The party electoral machine does not appear to be functioning as well as it once did. </p>
<p>And Sturgeon’s difficulties are not all about independence. The SNP has been in power for ten years and is vulnerable to criticisms about devolved policy areas, as we saw on her latest <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/05/nicola-sturgeon-refuses-rule-third-independence-referendum-lost/">Question Time appearance</a>. And under Corbyn, Labour is now firmly positioned to the left of the SNP, along with the Greens. This means Sturgeon’s anti-austerity stance looks weaker than it used to. </p>
<p>Sturgeon has also failed to rule out a possible third referendum should unionism prevail a second time around. Again as we saw on Question Time, this has allowed her opponents to accuse her of adopting a “neverendum” strategy. </p>
<p>The neverendum term was originally coined in Quebec in the 1990s to attack nationalists claiming they wanted to keep holding referendums until they could get the right result. This helped to severely damage the cause. It is now 22 years since Quebec held its <a href="http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/quebec-referendum-1995/">second independence referendum</a>, and there is no prospect of a third anytime soon. </p>
<p>It is a near certainty that the SNP will emerge from the UK election with considerably more seats than any other party in Scotland – indeed the same poll that reported Sturgeon’s fall in popularity <a href="https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390009-stv-election-poll-snp-to-hold-50-seats-amid-tory-gains/">also predicted</a> that the SNP would win 50 out of Scotland’s 59 seats. </p>
<p>Yet Sturgeon’s waning popularity perhaps points to a much greater danger for her party: that rather like the Parti Québécois, the SNP has become so inextricably linked with independence that support for it rises or declines with the fortunes of the party.</p>
<p>It risks getting caught between a rock and a hard place, with a sizeable number of Scottish voters not wanting another referendum and independence supporters eventually becoming disillusioned by the lack of progress. If so, the chances of a second independence referendum may narrow further as we approach the next Scottish election in 2021. In this winner-takes-all game of constitutional politics, that is certainly a prospect that Westminster’s unionists will be counting on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78957/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William McDougall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Theresa May isn’t the only national leader having a queasy election.William McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/786302017-05-31T15:00:05Z2017-05-31T15:00:05ZSNP’s manifesto for Scotland is deliberately cautious – and rightly so<p>The launch of the <a href="https://www.snp.org/manifesto">SNP election manifesto</a> sees the party under more pressure than in some time. The SNP continues to <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org">poll very well</a> in Scotland and will surely perform strongly on June 8, but the Conservatives are challenging in a number of seats thanks to Ruth Davidson successfully reinventing her party as the main protectors of the union. How has the SNP responded? Well, conservatively. </p>
<p>The biggest issue for the Scottish Nationalists is of course the independence referendum. The question of a second vote <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-back-in-play-after-brexit-shock-with-a-note-of-caution-61457">dramatically returned</a> to front and centre after Scots voted enthusiastically to remain in the EU while the rest of the UK voted to leave – upturning the previous premise that the indyref was a “once in a generation” event. </p>
<p>Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-is-playing-great-politics-with-indyref2-but-victory-still-long-way-off-74784">stepped up</a> the pressure in March by announcing plans for a second indyref in late 2018/early 2019. Theresa May shortly responded that the Scots could have a referendum, but not that quickly, and then called the current election before Sturgeon could announce her next move. </p>
<p>In their <a href="http://votesnp.com/docs/manifesto.pdf">2015 election manifesto</a>, published just a few months after the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">first indyref</a>, the SNP made no pledge to hold a second independence referendum at all. All mentions of referendums were either about promises made by the No side during the first indyref or about a potential UK-wide vote on EU membership. </p>
<p>This time, the SNP haven’t made any new pledges regarding a referendum either. The <a href="https://www.snp.org/manifesto">manifesto says</a> only that winning a majority of seats in Scotland will signify a “triple lock” that further strengthens the democratic mandate to hold a referendum “when the time is right”. The existing mandate comes from the pro-independence majority at the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland/results">2016 Holyrood election</a> and the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-independence-referendum-indyref-2-nicola-sturgeon-vote-date-latest-a7654591.html">majority vote</a> in the Scottish parliament in March in favour of Sturgeon’s 2018/19 plan. </p>
<p>The possibility of a second referendum is framed purely as Scotland having a choice on the terms of the Brexit deal. The manifesto says nothing about any perceived advantages from independence.</p>
<p>It is difficult to interpret all this as anything but backtracking – and indeed Sturgeon <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/30/sturgeon-steps-back-from-independence-referendum-demands">confirmed</a> after the manifesto launch that there is now no definite date for the second vote. The main reason is the <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org">opinion polls</a>, with support for independence pretty much where it was in September 2014. Polling has also shown that the Scottish public are not overly enthused by the idea of another referendum anytime soon. </p>
<p>This could lead to the SNP leaking support, but it is very hard to be sure. The party won just shy of 50% of the Scottish vote in 2015, so the only way is likely to be down – possibly regardless of its position on independence. </p>
<p>The SNP also remains, by far, the strongest pro-independence party and can more or less rely on the vast majority of those who voted Yes in 2014. It therefore has a pretty stable voter base to call upon and so arguably has the capacity to be flexible with its strategy and preferred timetable. </p>
<h2>Greatest hits of 2015</h2>
<p>Aside from this, much of the 2017 manifesto is a throwback to 2015. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-is-overestimating-the-toxicity-of-tories-in-scotland-and-could-pay-for-it-77334">focus on the Conservatives</a> as the party’s main foe in Scotland is sharper, but many of the issues around austerity, social security, tax and defence remain similar. </p>
<p>The party is again calling for the reintroduction of the 50p rate of income tax for top earners, having <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/22/nicola-sturgeon-resists-pressure-for-scottish-income-tax-rises">appeared to</a> cool on it last year. It seeks an end to benefit sanctions (in 2015 it wanted an urgent review), and still wants to ditch the austerity that has been Conservative fiscal policy since 2010. </p>
<p>This continuity is unsurprising: being able to rely on the pro-independence vote takes the pressure off to some extent. The opposition parties were also caught unawares by May’s election announcement, albeit the Conservative lead in the polls should have kept them on guard. </p>
<p>As in 2015, the main slogan is “Stronger for Scotland”. The manifesto repeats the trick of running this alongside a tartanised version of the famous green leather seats in the House of Commons. Historically, the SNP has suffered from the question of relevance at UK elections: why vote SNP when you could vote for another party more likely to participate in government? </p>
<p>This problem mattered less in 2015, and also in 1974, because the constitutional question was high on the agenda. So by trying to play to the same constitutional constituency this time around, the SNP is trying to ensure the benefit continues. </p>
<p>To the same end, the 2017 manifesto has a strong focus on policy areas decided at the UK level, such as defence, foreign affairs and macroeconomic policy. On devolved areas like health and education, it makes a concerted effort to highlight the relevance of the SNP presence in Westminster. </p>
<p>It mentions, for example, the <a href="researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7386/CBP-7386.pdf">extra funding</a> that will accrue to Scotland depending on what the UK government decides to spend on health in England as a reason for the SNP having a significant presence in the Commons. In fact, the expected Conservative majority would mean strong SNP numbers have practically no impact on this area. </p>
<p>The manifesto also profiles some of the SNP’s most impactful MPs over the past two years – particularly <a href="https://theconversation.com/imminent-uk-cuts-to-mothers-tax-credits-are-an-assault-on-womens-human-rights-75014">Alison Thewliss</a>, a leading figure in the campaign against the “rape clause” that forces women to prove that the birth of a third child was the result of rape before they can claim tax credits for the child. The message? SNP MPs are hardworking representatives that can bring about positive change in Westminster. </p>
<p>In sum, the SNP’s 2017 manifesto amounts to a pitch for continuity aimed at delivering a mandate for going all out for independence when the timing feels right. It is about consolidation through bringing into sharper focus the new reality that the SNP’s biggest foe is the Conservatives, and arguing that Scotland ought to have a vote on its European future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78630/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig McAngus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Scottish nationalists’ election pitch is about damage limitation, not a radical sell.Craig McAngus, Lecturer in Politics, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/773702017-05-08T16:29:12Z2017-05-08T16:29:12ZSNP victory in Scottish council elections starts to crack when you look closely<p>At first glance the SNP scored another remarkable success in the Scottish <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39795422">local elections</a> on May 4. The party won 431 seats, 155 more than their nearest rivals, the Conservatives. Meanwhile, Labour, who once dominated local government in Scotland, were even further behind.</p>
<p>Equally, the official tally of the parties’ share of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39738347">first preference vote</a> across Scotland as a whole, which has <a href="http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/download/112/slge2017_summary_results_data">just been published</a>, confirms that the party was well ahead of the rest of the pack. The SNP won 32.3% of the vote, while the Conservatives secured 25.2% and Labour 20.2%. Both the Liberal Democrats (6.8%) and the Greens (4.1%) were even further behind.</p>
<p>Yet the task facing the SNP next month is to defend its remarkable success in winning 56 out of Scotland’s 59 seats at the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland">UK election in 2015</a>, a success based not on winning a little less than a third of the vote, but on securing 50%. The fact that the party won only 32% in the local elections would seem to raise questions about its ability to repeat that feat.</p>
<p>In truth, the two figures are not directly comparable. Over one in ten votes on May 4 were cast for independent candidates – in the Highlands and the Islands in particular, council elections are often still genuinely local rather than partisan battles. Independent candidates will not do that well in the general election.</p>
<p>But even if everyone who voted independent would have voted SNP in a general election (a highly improbable supposition), that clearly cannot account for all of the difference between the two performances.</p>
<h2>The long five years</h2>
<p>The share of the SNP’s first preference vote is actually exactly the same as five years ago, when the last round of these elections was held. Although that marked the first time that the SNP had managed to outpoll Labour in local elections, the outcome was, in truth, widely regarded as a disappointment for the nationalists. What was no more than a one-point lead over Labour had seemed like small beer after the SNP’s’ success on winning an overall majority at Holyrood <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/election2011/overview/html/scotland.stm">a year earlier</a>.</p>
<p>Still, that disappointment did not stop the SNP winning half the vote in the UK election in 2015, so perhaps it will not do so again. Maybe we are simply discovering that voters in Scotland are just not so keen on voting for the SNP in local elections – as <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-reasons-why-labour-should-seriously-fear-wipeout-in-scotland-37497">was the case</a> for Westminster elections until the party’s 2015 success.</p>
<p>But equally, it could be a sign that the party has lost ground. After all, three years – and an <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">independence referendum</a> – elapsed between the 2012 local elections and the 2015 UK election. And the SNP have not had any difficulty increasing their vote in local by-elections during the last two years. On average the party’s share of the vote has been up ten points on 2012 in such contests. That would suggest every good reason to think the SNP’s share of the vote would also have gone up this time around.</p>
<h2>Grim up north-east</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, although the SNP’s share of the first preference vote may have held steady across Scotland as a whole as compared with 2012, it has not held up everywhere. It has fallen heavily in much of the north-east in particular. It is down by 13 points in Angus, 11 in Aberdeenshire, nine in Perth, and eight in Moray. </p>
<p>At the same time, the Conservatives have recorded some of their biggest increases in this area under Ruth Davidson: the party’s vote was up by 19 points in both Aberdeenshire and Moray, and 16 points in both Angus and Perth. As a result, it could present a particularly strong challenge to the SNP in such key seats as Moray, currently held by Angus Robertson, and Perth, where the incumbent is Pete Wishart. </p>
<p>Of course, these losses of support in the north-east were counterbalanced by gains elsewhere. The SNP’s success in ending Labour’s control of Glasgow City Council was matched by an eight-point increase in support across the city. Elsewhere in the west of Scotland the party’s vote also increased – especially sharply in West Dunbartonshire (up ten points), and in Inverclyde (up seven). </p>
<p>All in all, there is little in these local election results to suggest that Labour is on course to reverse the losses it suffered at the hands of the SNP in its Clydeside heartland two years ago. But in contrast to 2015, it is no longer Labour who the SNP have most reason to worry about.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77370/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Curtice is Senior Research Fellow, NatCen Social Research and Chief Commentator, whatukthinks.org/eu. He is also President of the British Polling Council. The views in this piece are entirely his own. </span></em></p>The Conservative threat in Scotland is more than just hype.John Curtice, Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/744682017-03-13T20:06:21Z2017-03-13T20:06:21ZScotland and a second independence referendum: what is the legal situation?<p>Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181">announced</a> her intention to hold another Scottish independence referendum in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. Campaign badges are being looked out and banners dusted down. But there are significant question marks as to what the legal basis will be for what is being dubbed indyref2.</p>
<p>In 2012, the <a href="http://www.gov.scot/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence">Edinburgh Agreement</a> was signed by the UK and Scottish governments, following negotiations that determined the legal basis of the referendum. What is known as a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/465294/Devolution_Guidance_Note_14_orders_made_under_section_30_2_of_the_scotland_act_alterations_to_legislative_competence.pdf">section 30</a> order was granted by the UK government which temporarily gave the Scottish parliament the power to pass a law allowing an independence referendum to be held. But the crucial word here is “temporarily”. </p>
<p>While the Scottish parliament had the right to pass the 2013 <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2013/14/contents">Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013</a>, that right was quickly transferred back to London after the 2014 vote.</p>
<p>Now in 2017, the terrain is <a href="https://theconversation.com/scotland-heads-towards-a-second-independence-referendum-74491">very different</a>. The UK government was quick to dismiss Sturgeon’s speech announcing her intention to push for a fresh vote. In its response, the government <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-referendum-second-independence-brexit-theresa-may-downing-street-a7627066.html">said</a>: “A majority of people in Scotland do not want a second independence referendum.” In 2012, the UK coalition government played gentler mood music and recognised the authority of the Scottish National Party (SNP) administration and its electoral mandate to hold a referendum.</p>
<h2>Where powers lie</h2>
<p>The root legal problem stems from <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-brexit-could-break-devolution-74106">devolution</a>. The Scottish parliament is not completely sovereign. There are areas, called reserved matters, where it is simply not allowed to legislate. These include defence, foreign affairs and immigration. The list of reserved areas can be altered, but it continues to include constitutional issues – including matters relating to “<a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/schedule/5">the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England</a>”. </p>
<p>Scottish politicians can debate such matters in Edinburgh – for instance, the Scottish parliament made its opposition <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/07/scottish-parliament-backs-symbolic-motion-rejecting-article-50">to Brexit</a> known – but the parliament cannot pass legislation on them. </p>
<p>Prior to the Edinburgh Agreement of 2012 there was debate on whether a referendum could be held without permission from Westminster. This remained theoretical, as negotiations were concluded and a legal agreement was struck.</p>
<h2>Could May withhold permission?</h2>
<p>Under the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30">Scotland Act 1998</a> there is no legal requirement for the UK government to hand the Scottish parliament temporary powers under section 30 to allow a vote on the constitution and the future of the union. Withholding such powers would be a political decision – but it’s possible the UK government would face a massive backlash if it did so. </p>
<p>If May’s government refuses to give the Scottish parliament powers to hold a vote on the referendum, it could give the Scottish government a legal problem. Given the 2012 agreement it would now be difficult to argue that permission was not needed. In her <a href="https://www.snp.org/nicola_sturgeon_speech_scotland_s_referendum">speech</a>, Sturgeon spoke of the need for an agreement with the UK government, although in her view key elements, including the timing of the referendum, should be made in Scotland.</p>
<p>If there is no section 30, the Scottish parliament may not even have the chance to debate a proposed second referendum bill. The decision on whether to debate a referendum bill would be in the hands of the chair of the Scottish parliament – the presiding officer, a position currently held by <a href="http://www.parliament.scot/msps/currentmsps/ken-macintosh-msp.aspx">Ken MacKintosh</a>. If the bill is outside the powers of the parliament and deals with a reserved matter, the presiding officer can block the proposal from being debated at all. If there is no section 30 order, that could be quite likely as it would be clear that the powers had not been transferred from Westminster to Holyrood. </p>
<p>The presiding officer could allow it to be debated and it could be passed by the parliament. But it might then face legal challenges in court. Acts of the Scottish parliament can be overturned by judges if it is thought the law is outside the powers of Holyrood. The legal challenge does not need to be brought by the UK government – any Scottish citizen has the right to bring a legal action.</p>
<p>Notoriously this was done in 2016 when the controversial Named Persons law was challenged in court by a number of campaigners and charities. The Children and Young Persons (Scotland) Act 2014 was ruled as <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36903513">illegal by the UK Supreme Court</a>. It is now currently being <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39186052">amended</a>.</p>
<p>To ramp up the pressure on the UK government, Sturgeon has called for a vote of the Scottish parliament in mid-March to request a section 30 order. But this is one of those “symbolic” votes and would have no legal standing. It is up to May’s political judgement whether she feels she could ignore the view of Scotland’s elected parliament.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the legal complexities of navigating the law around a second referendum would be immense if no section 30 order was granted. This intersection of law and politics will make for a gripping situation over the next few months.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74468/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick McKerrell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nicola Sturgeon may have fired a starting gun for indyref2, but much about the proposed sequel remains uncertain.Nick McKerrell, Lecturer in Law, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/712922017-01-16T12:43:43Z2017-01-16T12:43:43ZScottish media is in dire straits – it’s why alternatives like Bella Caledonia are vital<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152666/original/image-20170113-11183-1hify2f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Caledonia in question.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://bellacaledonia.org.uk">Bella Caledonia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the Scottish independence movement contemplates a possible <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/hard-brexit-could-see-indyref2-vote-held-in-2018-say-greens-1-4337949">second referendum</a>, it has been rocked by news that an online magazine that established a significant voice in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">first vote</a> could close.</p>
<p><a href="http://bellacaledonia.org.uk">Bella Caledonia</a> is arguably the most prominent among a number of online comment sites and blogs that provide a counterbalance to a unionist-inclined press in Scotland. But now Mike Small, its editor and co-founder, has indicated the task of running the site full-time is beyond present resources. The board has <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/bella-caledonia-board-vote-to-keep-site-running-1-4336807">said</a> it intends to carry on, but the publication’s future is far from clear.</p>
<p>Bella Caledonia offers sharp online commentary and analysis from a perspective that is pro-independence but not chest-thumping. Scotland has few of these alternative platforms and it can hardly afford to lose any – especially with a second referendum threatening to raise as many questions about fair coverage <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/apr/25/scottish-independence-newspapers">as last time</a>. </p>
<p>Scotland’s political and cultural development has been characterised by a disparity between its restored awareness of itself since devolution and the decline of the media. Its externally owned newspapers have been stripped of resource. Despite strong indigenous radio provision led by BBC Radio Scotland, the nation’s TV offering is locked into a pattern largely unchanged since the 1950s. </p>
<p>Scotland gets television largely scheduled from London from the leading <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcone/programmes/schedules/scotland">BBC</a> and <a href="http://player.stv.tv/tvguide/">STV</a> services, with a slender offering of its own products, often at unfriendly times. There is the invaluable exception of Gaelic service <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/alba">BBC Alba</a>, but it can only do so much. </p>
<h2>The need for balance</h2>
<p>New online media is therefore particularly important in Scotland. <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/comment/14855413.Bella_Caledonia__borne_of_a_desire_for_a_pro_indy_voice/">Started</a> in 2007, Bella Caledonia’s readers have not necessarily been in agreement about its direction on independence or the ruling SNP. But along with the likes of <a href="https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com">Wee Ginger Dug</a>, <a href="http://wingsoverscotland.com">Wings Over Scotland</a>, <a href="http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk">Scot Goes Pop!</a> and <a href="http://www.arcofprosperity.org">Arc of Prosperity</a>, it offers an online alternative to a press that largely remains overwhelmingly in favour of the British union – even though 45% of Scots <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">voted</a> in favour of independence in 2014 and <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/support-for-scottish-independence-lowest-since-2014-referendum-1-4304686">opinion polls</a> are in similar territory today. </p>
<p>From a field of 18 daily and 12 Sunday titles widely available in Scotland, only the <a href="http://theherald.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx">Sunday Herald</a>, <a href="http://www.thenational.scot">The National</a> and a <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/lesley-riddoch-creeping-centralisation-is-threatening-local-democracy-in-scotland-1-4302697">few</a> <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/authors/joan-mcalpine/">columnists</a> elsewhere are pro-independence. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152668/original/image-20170113-11172-qllua5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152668/original/image-20170113-11172-qllua5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152668/original/image-20170113-11172-qllua5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152668/original/image-20170113-11172-qllua5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152668/original/image-20170113-11172-qllua5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152668/original/image-20170113-11172-qllua5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152668/original/image-20170113-11172-qllua5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152668/original/image-20170113-11172-qllua5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scotland’s fourth estate.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The financial challenges driving print newspapers online exist in Scotland too, of course. Bella Caledonia has relied on donations, but the battle for any kind of financial contribution is heavily contested and online news and opinion consumption increasingly fragments the consumer base – Scotland’s is perilously small in the first place. Opinion and news aggregation, which comprise much internet provision, are cheaper than news reporting, which if intended seriously is costly – hence it remains the domain of big media. </p>
<p>Bella Caledonia has generally tried to pay contributors – no mean feat in the current climate. It can shift more towards contributors donating content for free, but there still needs to be an adequate human resource to create this kind of product – even altruistic online producers need to live. </p>
<p>Crowdfunding is generally better at one-off initiatives or launches than sustained support. If, <a href="http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2017/01/08/bella-caledonia-2007-2017/">as appears</a>, the threat to Bella Caledonia has been the burden of commitment on its editor, that only mirrors the predicament of many sparsely resourced websites which provide a voice both in Scotland and in many other countries. </p>
<h2>The Brexit experience</h2>
<p>Successful online alternatives to mainstream media’s news and opinion appear more important than ever in light of Brexit. London newspapers have their own economic challenges but we’ve recently learned that those of us who wrote off the political power of the press did so prematurely: it’s inconceivable that the vote last June 23 could have been swung toward an EU exit without the massed ranks of the right-wing press. </p>
<p>As we begin 2017, they are still engaged in persuading their readerships that Brexit has somehow already led to the sunlit uplands of British economic sovereignty even before it has happened. One of the ramifications of the debate about “post-truth politics” is how it implicates the media. Seldom has even the historically partisan London press seemed less like an apparatus of a liberal democracy. And covering the Brexit issue is <a href="http://www.referendumanalysis.eu/eu-referendum-analysis-2016/section-4/bending-over-backwards-the-bbc-and-the-brexit-campaign/">no doubt</a> making the BBC very, very nervous when it relies on the patronage of a government currently executing it.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152669/original/image-20170113-11183-16y3q7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152669/original/image-20170113-11183-16y3q7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152669/original/image-20170113-11183-16y3q7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152669/original/image-20170113-11183-16y3q7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152669/original/image-20170113-11183-16y3q7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152669/original/image-20170113-11183-16y3q7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152669/original/image-20170113-11183-16y3q7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152669/original/image-20170113-11183-16y3q7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What future?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/peretzpup/2064220076/in/photolist-49pEHj-gJMieT-c3AtbC-8zxBbK-5s776U-8uVTVn-eXD4NM-aMHkrp-PoQ8y-akFreF-7UBZP3-6bY1MU-6TaV83-99g5BN-i7FLwi-5y9Nap-5LDsTX-5Earra-8p4t2K-phbmfo-7HDtnB-nqecf5-d1ALk9-74sfwS-aqGMcU-54Bf5a-edPwvd-CfroA-xeqsY-7NhXVb-s8XUoi-9Hp9kP-6xUHQ1-4qocJt-avbVa7-4zdpE2-edPwvu-c2FDE1-6ptFGL-edPwtu-cSxsEf-edHRVe-2P5QvV-7RgtFh-9sbpR5-251gi4-5a3ibr-4u1YS8-c8r87w-edPwu7">Eugene Peretz</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As at so many important moments, Scotland languishes on the media fringes, with no adequate platforms for national dialogue – and it is about to be dragged out of Europe <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36599102">against its will</a>. Compared to Ireland and also Catalonia, the mismatch between a strong national culture and its media provision is striking and dismal. </p>
<p>There is little hope that the traditional media will in future answer the democratic needs of the Scottish nation better than now. With indigenous titles like The Scotsman, The Herald and Daily Record <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-35652564">all in</a> grave circulation <a href="http://www.holdthefrontpage.co.uk/2016/news/abcs-sunday-newspapers-experience-drops-of-more-than-one-fifth/">difficulties</a>, some parts are more likely to disappear altogether – a sign that it’s not an easy time for publications of any colour to gain a foothold.</p>
<p>One of the unanswered mysteries of the Scottish soul is why this doesn’t appear to be of more urgent concern to the political classes. As with the tired questions of inadequate Scottish TV provision and the failing Scottish press, so also here at the still early phase of media pluralism online: the matter of the Scottish fourth estate deserves more attention on the nation’s cultural, political and economic agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71292/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Blain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As a second independence referendum beckons, a counterweight to the unionist-leaning press is hugely important to the Yes side.Neil Blain, Professor Emeritus of Communications, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/655132016-09-16T12:25:14Z2016-09-16T12:25:14ZTwo years after Scotland’s vote, support for independence is stuck in the mud<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137985/original/image-20160915-30614-1r5z7p8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-54427720/stock-photo-four-wheel-truck-stuck-in-mud.html?src=lsthVYbcnznqCBQAE41zLA-1-8">James Edwards</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>September 18 marks the second anniversary of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">Scottish independence referendum</a>, perhaps the most intense, exciting and fascinating period in the country’s political history. And despite the No vote, it’s certainly not business as usual in Scotland. So what has changed in the past two years, and where next?</p>
<p>The political divide north and south of the border has been steadily growing since the referendum. Most important is arguably the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2016/11/pdfs/ukpga_20160011_en.pdf">extra powers</a> on their way to Scotland. From next April, all Scottish income tax revenue will go to the Scottish government, along with the power to create and alter bands. </p>
<p>The Left sees the possibility of generating extra revenues to tackle austerity and social justice. For all sides, it’s an added incentive to grow the economy to increase the tax take. </p>
<p>Yet the economy looks weak compared to the rest of the UK – <a href="https://www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20160913/ScotlandsBudget-2016.pdf">with probably</a> the worst fiscal picture since 2007. With some social security powers devolving too, the Scottish government faces challenging spending decisions that probably mean cuts. </p>
<h2>X marks the spot</h2>
<p>The constitutional divide has been just as clear at the ballot box. The message from the Scottish public at the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland">2015 UK election</a> was that the SNP were best placed to keep up the pressure on the Cameron government to deliver on devolution. When the party won nearly 50% of the Scottish vote, winning a remarkable 56 of 59 Scottish seats, unionist Scottish Labour were the main losers. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Conservatives won at UK level by playing up the threat from an SNP-backed minority Labour government to stability, security and territorial integrity. Critics of the Conservatives said the real threat to territorial integrity was campaign posters like the one of Labour leader Ed Miliband dancing like a puppet as the SNP’s Alex Salmond played the flute. </p>
<p>In the same vein has been the Conservatives’ introduction of English votes for English laws. This system of excluding non-English MPs from purely English matters <a href="https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/westminster-passes-english-votes-english-laws-0">became law</a> last autumn, and critics <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-12/english-votes-for-english-laws-is-driving-scotland-out-of-the-uk-snp-mp-claims/">have said</a> it effectively makes non-English MPs second class. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Take your partners …</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And yet the Scottish Conservatives unexpectedly ousted Labour to become Holyrood’s second largest party at this year’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland">Scottish election</a>. Under Ruth Davidson, whose personal ratings have <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14747283.Ruth_Davidson_overtakes_Nicola_Sturgeon_in_new_opinion_poll/">just overtaken</a> first minister Nicola Sturgeon’s, the Conservatives arguably succeeded through positioning themselves as best placed to defend the union. </p>
<p>One look at the electoral map gives a good indication of what happened: the Conservatives appealed to middle class No voters in places like Aberdeenshire, East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh. It was another sign that most Scottish politics has been viewed through the constitutional prism since the indyref. Scottish Labour has failed to adapt, tending to insist that policy issues not be treated as constitutional issues. </p>
<p>These trends seem likely to continue at the local elections next year. All eyes will be on whether Labour can cling to control of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-17953270">Glasgow City Council</a>. </p>
<h2>Post-Brexit</h2>
<p>When 62% of Scots voted Remain in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results">EU referendum</a> as the UK voted Brexit, it undoubtedly shifted the political goalposts. The Better Together campaign’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21293490">assurances</a> in 2014 that voting No would secure EU membership for Scotland now look hollow. So too the assertion that the UK represented the most stable choice for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/12/uk-economy-near-standstill-brexit-vote-hits-investment-bcc">Scotland’s economy</a>. The Brexit vote <a href="http://www.snp.org/five_times_westminster_ignored_scotland_s_democratic_decisions">also revived</a> old complaints about a democratic deficit in Scotland. These factors could all make a second referendum a rather different affair.</p>
<p>The pro-independence movement looks more prepared than in 2014, too: recent launches include activist platform <a href="https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9049/commonsocial-has-landed-scotlands-new-social-network-launches">Common Social</a> and the <a href="http://nationalyesregistry.scot">National Yes Registry</a>, a tool to help dormant pro-independence groups organise. <a href="http://www.womenforindependence.org">Women For Independence</a> and the socialist <a href="http://www.allofusfirst.org">Common Weal</a> are <a href="https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9304/common-weal-launches-drive-new-independence-white-paper">thriving</a>, while online news outlet <a href="https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9304/common-weal-launches-drive-new-independence-white-paper">CommonSpace</a> has shown you can be both pro-independence and critical of the SNP. </p>
<p>The only problem is public sentiment. The SNP <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14432723.Second_referendum_only_if_MOST_Scots_want_it__Sturgeon_confirms/">long talked</a> about Brexit being the “material change in circumstances” to justify another referendum, and Nicola Sturgeon <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-back-in-play-after-brexit-shock-with-a-note-of-caution-61457">signalled</a> as much immediately after the EU referendum. Yet the SNP’s <a href="http://www.snp.org/manifesto">2016 manifesto</a> first also wanted evidence of clear, sustained support for independence – generally <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-60-support-needed-before-next-independence-referendum-1-3920508">seen as</a> the 60% bracket. </p>
<p><a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls">After the Brexit vote</a>, polling showed a slim majority for independence. <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls">Since then</a>, Scotland has reverted to narrowly leaning towards the union – not what the SNP might have hoped for at this stage. There are probably a number of reasons. EU membership is <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/">likely</a> of minor importance to most Scots and, at this stage, unlikely to be a massive gamechanger. A sizeable proportion of SNP/independence voters <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/">also voted</a> to leave the EU, <a href="http://www.snp.org/pb_what_is_the_snp_s_position_on_the_eu">contrary</a> to party policy. </p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, <a href="https://theconversation.com/independent-scotland-might-get-away-with-a-high-deficit-if-its-feeling-lucky-64409">recent figures</a> suggest an independent Scotland’s fiscal deficit would exceed 9% of GDP compared to the UK’s circa 4% – considerably worse than in 2014. The North Sea oil decline is hitting Scotland hard. Many “soft” No voters are <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/09/has-brexit-not-had-much-impact-on/">more worried</a> about deeper spending cuts and higher taxes to meet spending commitments than EU membership. </p>
<h2>Sturgeon’s dilemma</h2>
<p>The conundrum is how to turn this sentiment around. To that end, the SNP recently launched a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/02/nicola-sturgeon-snp-listening-exercise-europe-brexit-scottish-independence">listening exercise</a> around independence. The party faces a dilemma, however. To call a referendum, it needs to maintain a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. But if a majority continue to favour the union, it risks alienating the very voters it wishes to attract to independence. So it needs to walk a middle ground. </p>
<p>One possible route to independence might be the UK economy taking a significant nosedive post-Brexit. Many chose No in 2014 believing an independent Scottish economy would perform less well. A tanking UK economy might make independence look the safer option. </p>
<p>Alternatively, the prospect of an increased Tory majority at the next UK election could galvanise a Yes vote from Scottish antipathy to the party dating back to Margaret Thatcher. But given the Conservatives’ recent electoral performance in Scotland, you wouldn’t bank on it. </p>
<p>So if the SNP thought Brexit had given them an open goal for independence, it certainly doesn’t look that way. Winning a majority at a future referendum looks tough, perhaps even unlikely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig McAngus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How to shift those stubborn opinion polls?Craig McAngus, Lecturer in Politics, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/644092016-08-24T15:40:14Z2016-08-24T15:40:14ZIndependent Scotland might get away with a high deficit – if it’s feeling lucky<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135366/original/image-20160824-30209-hbujjz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'Well do ya punk?'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/eviloars/4781997884/in/photolist-8hyZno-a8L9Re-q3dn2F-9UPg3q-kiE6H-kiDVo-kiEW3-kiDpU-kiEwE-kiDJi-4MRXNc-kiEaP-aV77TX-b14gJ8-7JHmee-9tH6fx-j3eYpq-3sQLAP-9YFEs-8EVRmL-cBpedC-3t5N1u-5eXwEr-fkr4Fc-d3U44-cCpf45-9tZ4Fg-9tJy72-9tNjv8-3ry6gA-kiEoW-kiDx1-dW756q-4MRXrT-eLhLhJ-5Ys8xW-eoWED5-4sSs4A-otEXT-kiEF1-4MRYR4-dTBYRC-bSotGk-kiD9C-kiDMX-5ZpcCp-kiDRP-5smanB-kiDeV-8r5mvQ">Ariel Dovas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The predictable result of Scotland’s <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0050/00504649.pdf">expenditure and revenue data</a> for 2015-16 is that its fiscal deficit is much worse than the UK as a whole. Why predictable? Well, the Scottish economy is much more dependent on the oil industry than the UK overall and the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/business/energy-environment/oil-prices.html?_r=0">collapse in</a> the oil price since 2014 has led to a massive collapse in the UK government’s revenues from taxing the industry’s profits. </p>
<p>Since most of the oil is produced from Scottish territorial waters, this collapse affects Scotland’s territorial accounts. In the past, higher tax revenues from oil broadly compensated for Scotland’s higher public spending per head to the tune of £1,200 a year, so that the Scottish deficit did not differ substantially from that of the UK. Now that the oil effect has virtually disappeared, Scotland’s fiscal deficit of 9.5% of GDP (or £14.8 billion) is more than double the UK equivalent of 4% of GDP.</p>
<p><strong>Scottish and UK deficits, 1998-2016</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135369/original/image-20160824-30259-5ork18.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135369/original/image-20160824-30259-5ork18.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135369/original/image-20160824-30259-5ork18.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135369/original/image-20160824-30259-5ork18.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135369/original/image-20160824-30259-5ork18.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135369/original/image-20160824-30259-5ork18.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135369/original/image-20160824-30259-5ork18.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135369/original/image-20160824-30259-5ork18.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0050/00504649.pdf">Scottish government</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some of the spending attributed to Scotland is not under the control of the Scottish government. In the <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0050/00504649.pdf">latest calculations</a>, for example, Scotland is assumed to spend £3 billion on defence – its population share of total UK defence spending. An independent Scotland might choose to spend less on defence, but this could only make a modest dent in the total deficit.</p>
<p>For a more significant turnaround, Scotland would need to look to some of the bigger budget items such as health (£12.2 billion) and/or benefits and the state pension (£18.3 billion). On the revenue side, it could consider increasing existing taxes or introducing new ones. With the demise of North Sea oil, income tax (£12.2 billion) and VAT (£11.2 billion) account for 43% of Scotland’s total tax revenue of £53.7 billion.</p>
<p><strong>North Sea oil revenue 1998-2016</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135370/original/image-20160824-30231-azugfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135370/original/image-20160824-30231-azugfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135370/original/image-20160824-30231-azugfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135370/original/image-20160824-30231-azugfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135370/original/image-20160824-30231-azugfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135370/original/image-20160824-30231-azugfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135370/original/image-20160824-30231-azugfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135370/original/image-20160824-30231-azugfb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0050/00504649.pdf">Scottish government</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Abnormal possibilities</h2>
<p>Would an independent Scotland have to reduce this deficit? Obviously some countries run quite high deficits and function adequately even though they are highly indebted (<a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-budget">Italy</a> and <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-budget">Japan</a> are good examples). But if it is running a deficit at all, Scotland would be dependent on loans from the money markets to keep its public services functioning. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135367/original/image-20160824-30246-1n0knjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135367/original/image-20160824-30246-1n0knjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135367/original/image-20160824-30246-1n0knjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135367/original/image-20160824-30246-1n0knjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135367/original/image-20160824-30246-1n0knjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135367/original/image-20160824-30246-1n0knjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135367/original/image-20160824-30246-1n0knjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135367/original/image-20160824-30246-1n0knjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Mmmm, austerity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-145072465/stock-vector-illustration-of-bottle-pouring-medicine-syrup-in-spoon.html?src=Rh7XEA30FhnewgoT-5nlZQ-1-88">Vectomart</a></span>
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<p>In normal times, budget deficits around the current level would mean substantial, and probably unsustainable, debt interest charges for an independent Scotland. Eventually, if the market is unwilling to provide loan finance, bodies like the IMF pick up the pieces. But their medicine is likely to be pretty unpleasant involving tax increases and spending cuts. </p>
<p>On the other hand, these are not normal times in the money markets. The cost of government borrowing is currently at an historic low. Perhaps the Scottish government could borrow at rates that are higher than most other leading economies but are still affordable due to the generally <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3db396e4-3f5d-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0">low yields</a> on sovereign bonds. </p>
<p>Caution might suggest this would be a risky strategy given that we have no idea how long these “abnormal” conditions will persist. Some supporters of independence will no doubt believe that it is a risk worth taking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64409/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scotland’s numbers look far worse than the UK’s.David Bell, Professor of Economics, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/639782016-08-22T15:35:24Z2016-08-22T15:35:24ZScottish identity is moving too fast to keep up, as Edinburgh play shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134973/original/image-20160822-18734-nts5gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What's it all about, wonders Sandy Grierson.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mihaela Bodlovic </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What does the Scottish national identity amount to in 2016? That’s the central question in one of the most hotly anticipated shows at this year’s Edinburgh Festival, <a href="http://www.eif.co.uk/2016/light">Anything That Gives Off Light</a>. A collaboration between the Brooklyn-based <a href="http://theteamplays.org/about/about-the-company/">TEAM ensemble</a> and the National Theatre of Scotland, the play was originally intended to coincide with the 2014 independence referendum. With a second referendum now <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-back-in-play-after-brexit-shock-with-a-note-of-caution-61457">looking likely</a> after the Brexit vote in June, it feels just as timely. </p>
<p>The plot focuses on three main characters with different perspectives on Scottish identity: Brian (Brian Ferguson), a Glaswegian living in London who has returned home to find a burial place for his granny’s ashes; Red (Jessica Almasy), a Virginian holidaying in Scotland to try and understand her estranged husband; and Iain (Sandy Grierson), Brian’s childhood friend who stayed with his mammy in Glasgow. </p>
<p>It opens with Brian shuffling around the stage, trying and failing to shake off London and reconnect with Scotland by walking in a “Scottish way”. It concludes with Iain driving around Glasgow, finding his Scottishness in everything from a group of Slovaks singing in three-part harmony to a girl outside a Sikh gurdwara clapping to the rhythm of an Orange March. </p>
<p>In between is a bawdy, mythical, emotional romp across Scottish and Appalachian landscapes on an introspective quest for self and Scottishness. It tells the story of the shift from a rural-based, tightly-knit Scottishness to a more inclusive, urban one which has more experience of dealing with migrants and outsiders. </p>
<p>This sense of a Scotland emerging from its dark imperial past reminded me of the sentiment in Hamish Henderson’s <a href="http://tobarandualchais.co.uk/en/fullrecord/98252/2">Freedom Come-All-Ye</a>, sometimes described as an alternative national anthem. Yet it’s Iain, the Scot within the country, for whom this shift is more apparent than for Brian, the one who has moved away.</p>
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<p>As the characters journey towards the Highlands, they travel not only in space but in time, and their different homelands merge. The story of an old lady about to be evicted as part of the 18th and 19th-century <a href="http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk/scotlandshistory/jacobitesenlightenmentclearances/clearances/">clearances</a> of tenant crofters by Highland aristocrats blends into the story of a young lady whose home is threatened by environmental disaster in <a href="https://www.namb.net/send-relief/arm/appalachian-culture">Appalachia</a> in the eastern US, many of whose original settlers came from Scotland. </p>
<p>Brian, who works in London property, first becomes the landowner evicting the tenants during the clearances, then turns into a Scottish emigrant “made good” in latterday Appalachia and responsible for pushing people off their land. It was a perceptive comment on the circularity of life and the way different generations deal with the same issues again and again. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134976/original/image-20160822-18711-k8k5wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134976/original/image-20160822-18711-k8k5wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134976/original/image-20160822-18711-k8k5wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134976/original/image-20160822-18711-k8k5wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134976/original/image-20160822-18711-k8k5wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134976/original/image-20160822-18711-k8k5wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134976/original/image-20160822-18711-k8k5wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134976/original/image-20160822-18711-k8k5wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Jessica Almasy as American tourist Red.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mihaela Bodlovic</span></span>
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<h2>Stories and heritage</h2>
<p>The play explores how stories are central to our sense of identity. We all have stories of family, community, nationhood and past successes and failures. We carry them in our journey through life and have to negotiate and recreate them during crises. As part of Scotland’s story, the play references <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/wallace_william.shtml">William Wallace</a>, <a href="http://www.history.co.uk/biographies/bonnie-prince-charlie">Bonnie Prince Charlie</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-death-of-margaret-thatcher-and-the-legacy-of-thatcherism-13324">Margaret Thatcher</a>. Meanwhile Red sings of putting stories in a bag around her neck that eventually merge into a single story that becomes too heavy to carry. </p>
<p>The three characters in the play hotly debate themes of Scottish heritage, putting the record straight about some things along the way. For example the common understanding of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/culloden-why-truth-about-battle-for-britain-lay-hidden-for-three-centuries-62398">battle of Culloden</a> of 1746 as simply a massacre of the Scots by the English – making it a useful vehicle for Scottish nationalism – is dismissed as ignoring how Scots colluded against one another at the time. </p>
<p>The play also emphasises the impact of the <a href="http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk/scottishenlightenment/">Scottish Enlightenment</a> on American political culture, while <a href="https://theconversation.com/walter-scott-was-no-bland-tartan-romantic-he-was-dumbed-down-28933">Walter Scott’s</a> <a href="http://www.walterscott.lib.ed.ac.uk/works/novels/waverley.html">Waverley</a> novels are credited with inspiring the <a href="http://www.civilwar.org/education/history/civil-war-overview/overview.html">American Civil War</a> by generating a sense of Romantic nationalism replete with notions of identity and loyalty. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134979/original/image-20160822-18690-1v9ned0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134979/original/image-20160822-18690-1v9ned0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134979/original/image-20160822-18690-1v9ned0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134979/original/image-20160822-18690-1v9ned0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134979/original/image-20160822-18690-1v9ned0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134979/original/image-20160822-18690-1v9ned0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134979/original/image-20160822-18690-1v9ned0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134979/original/image-20160822-18690-1v9ned0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Digging in the dirt: Brian Ferguson – as Brian.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mihaela Bodlovic</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But above all, Anything That Gives Off Light is about how Scotland is perceived from the inside and outside. It is about how outsiders have not necessarily caught up with the ways in which stereotypes about parochial Scots with a Culloden-type chip on their shoulder have been superseded in the years since devolution and even the Scottish referendum. </p>
<p>There is much truth in this, in my view. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-europes-new-nationalism-is-here-to-stay-61541">Brexit referendum</a>, it was the English who voted in fear of the effect of immigrants on their national identity while the Scots appeared more comfortable with theirs. And while Red speaks several times in the play about how Scots and Americans both view themselves as underdogs but see them as losers and survivors respectively, the confidence of the two Scots in the play seems to question this aspect of the Scottish psyche. </p>
<p>The play is a powerful reminder to outsiders to listen first and speak cautiously about what they think they know: culture and identity are constantly evolving, however much it might be more comforting if they stayed still.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63978/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mairead Nic Craith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anything That Gives Off Light explores Scottishness from three very different perspectives.Mairead Nic Craith, Professor of Culture and Heritage, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/625042016-07-14T16:44:21Z2016-07-14T16:44:21ZWhy Theresa May will be tough for Nicola Sturgeon to deal with<p>On the day Theresa May took up residence at 10 Downing Street, the Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon <a href="https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon">had a message</a> for her: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The incoming PM has said to her party that ‘Brexit means Brexit’ – but she must not forget that Scotland voted to stay in the EU, and so for us remain means remain. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>It was an early reminder, in case the new British prime minister was in any doubt, that Scotland will be high in her in-tray. But what does May’s arrival mean for the Scottish independence movement? Will she have a different approach to David Cameron? Would it be different if another Tory leadership candidate had won?</p>
<p>Superficially, Sturgeon and May share common ground on Brexit. They both campaigned for Remain <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887">on June 23</a>. Both emerged as sober, reassuring voices in the turmoil after Leave won narrowly at UK level but Remain won in Scotland (and in Northern Ireland, London and Gibraltar). </p>
<p>Both women command the respect, if not always the warmth, of their peers. They have strong reputations for being pragmatic and thoughtful on policy and political strategy as well as tough negotiators in their respective parliaments. </p>
<p>May vs Sturgeon will therefore be fascinating. Scotland’s Remain vote has of course put independence back on the table, less than <a href="http://www.scotreferendum.com">two years after</a> 55% of voters chose the union on a high turnout of 85%. Sturgeon <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32222806">long said</a> a UK Leave/Scottish Remain vote would justify a second referendum, and she now thinks this “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36621030">highly likely</a>”. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130569/original/image-20160714-23336-11he47h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130569/original/image-20160714-23336-11he47h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130569/original/image-20160714-23336-11he47h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130569/original/image-20160714-23336-11he47h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130569/original/image-20160714-23336-11he47h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130569/original/image-20160714-23336-11he47h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130569/original/image-20160714-23336-11he47h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130569/original/image-20160714-23336-11he47h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Eyelids a-fluttering.</span>
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<p>The SNP’s problem is that they <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-60-support-needed-before-next-independence-referendum-1-3920508">don’t want</a> to push for another referendum until independence support <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sturgeon-is-cautious-about-second-independence-poll-3tzfl2fbk">is in</a> the 60% bracket, still a few points higher than most <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/support-for-scottish-independence-up-to-53-post-brexit-1-4164772">recent polls</a>. This necessitates a long game. </p>
<p>Meantime, Sturgeon is seeking a deal with EU leaders that would allow Scotland to remain in the EU while the rest of the UK leaves. She has also held meetings with London mayor Sadiq Khan and the chief minister of Gibraltar, Fabian Picardo with a view to building a strong alliance for future Brexit negotiations. </p>
<p>But should the EU effort fail, Westminster SNP leader Angus Robertson <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/angus-robertson-indyref2-will-be-held-if-brexit-talks-fail-1-4173933">said recently</a> that a second independence referendum would follow. Philip Hammond, May’s new chancellor, has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36791851">since signalled</a> that Sturgeon’s EU initiative is unlikely to be workable. A collision therefore looks very likely. </p>
<h2>May well not</h2>
<p>May mentioned the importance of the union in her <a href="https://youtu.be/ImwWM-1UdgQ">maiden speech</a> as prime minister, reminding her audience that she represents the Conservative <em>and Unionist</em> Party. She previously <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/10/theresa-may-pledges-to-save-union-as-nicola-sturgeon-promises-sc/">said</a> she would “always stand up for Scotland’s place in the union”, <a href="http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/06/theresa-mays-launch-statement-full-text.html">and cited</a> fears about Scotland as one reason for backing Remain. </p>
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<p>She will keep a cooler head than defeated rivals Andrea Leadsom or Michael Gove. They are both volatile and outspoken and have displayed poor political judgement that would have haunted them over Scotland had either become prime minister. </p>
<p>Leadsom had previously <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/maggie-mark-ii-would-pm-8382453">complained about</a> Scotland receiving too much taxpayers’ money, while Gove <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/news/gove-will-ditch-barnett-formula-and-scotlands-new-fiscal-deal-claim-snp.19528">was accused</a> of planning to scrap the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html">Barnett formula</a> that is used to distribute funds to UK regions according to need. May <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11579473/Theresa-May-Dont-let-Sturgeon-call-the-shots.html">did add</a> her voice to the Tory <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results">2015 UK election</a> message that voting Labour meant getting the SNP through a back-door coalition, but she still looks to have the least Scottish political baggage of the three. </p>
<p>May is probably also shrewd enough to be more careful than her blasé predecessor. She will want to learn from David Cameron’s promise to hold an EU referendum, which now looks a reckless gamble. This will likely make her reluctant to give the legal consent for a second Scottish referendum. </p>
<p>She will be acutely aware of the SNP’s 60% problem and will seek to keep separatist sentiment at bay through all means possible. Reminding the Scots of the power of the union looks like one strategy. We can also expect to hear her selling the value of being both in the UK and with favourable access to the European single market, assuming she achieves <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/philip-hammond-brexit-single-market-eu-referendum-theresa-may-cabinet-chancellor-a7136101.html">that kind of deal</a> in the Brexit negotiations. </p>
<h2>Relying on Ruth</h2>
<p>Backed by only one Westminster MP in Scotland and with no mandate from a general election, however, May does lack legitimacy north of the border. Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson will therefore surely be a key lieutenant in selling the union, and has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36770277">already been in London</a> to confer with the new prime minister. As a popular politician with strong debating skills and a mischievous wit, she has brought the Tories back from the dead in Scotland <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland">to become</a> the largest opposition party. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/07/ruth-davidson-to-back-theresa-may-for-tory-leadership/">Davidson switched</a> to supporting May for the leadership after Stephen Crabb pulled out, but will now have the chance to enhance her reputation north and south of the border. Her growing esteem in London is already clear from her <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36790310">recent appointment</a> to the Privy Council. </p>
<p>Davidson <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14595310.Second_Scottish_independence_referendum_should_not_be_blocked__according_to_Ruth_Davidson/">did say</a> prior to May’s arrival that the UK should not block another independence referendum (Scottish secretary David Mundell <a href="https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/213848/second-independence-vote-is-publics-choice-mundell/">said similar</a>). But that is not incompatible with a strategy to keep independence support below the level where the SNP would seek a vote. </p>
<p>The Scottish Tory leader has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36770277">also urged</a> May to seek “positive engagement” with the Scottish government, while saying a second independence referendum <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/501c3aab-1822-398d-b677-435cd83ed2da">would be</a> “irresponsible” <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36613544">and not</a> “in the best interests of Scotland”. </p>
<p>For her part, Nicola Sturgeon will be watching those opinion polls closely and seeking to exploit all opportunities to make them shift. First up will probably be the Westminster vote on whether the UK should renew its Trident nuclear deterrent, based near Glasgow, to which the Scottish nationalists are passionately opposed. Expect them to make a case that May is out of touch with voters north of the border, and for this to be a running theme. </p>
<p>To be clear, it will be no small achievement if May manages to keep Scotland in the union in the coming years. But among the leadership hopefuls and compared to David Cameron, the Conservatives have almost certainly chosen the best person for the job.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62504/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Smith has received research funding from the British Academy, ESRC and the Leverhulme Trust.</span></em></p>The two women at the top of UK politics could be heading for a disagreement.Alexander Smith, Senior Leverhulme Research Fellow and Assistant Professor in Sociology, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/617112016-06-27T15:48:45Z2016-06-27T15:48:45ZScotland can’t veto Brexit – but London may be unable to stop indyref2<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128346/original/image-20160627-28362-mmhipx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'Nice knowing you.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=scotland%20brexit&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=442815037">GrAI</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the general chaos around Brexit engulfed the UK one more dramatic headline <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/nicola-sturgeon-new-scottish-referendum-brexit">emerged</a>: “Scottish parliament could block Brexit.” </p>
<p>Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36633244">was asked</a> in a BBC interview on Sunday June 26 whether her parliament might withhold the consent required to pass the UK legislation required to leave the EU. Scotland faces losing its EU status despite every local authority voting to Remain in the EU referendum. “That’s got to be on the table,” she replied. “You’re not going to vote for something that is not in Scotland’s interests.” </p>
<p>Is it true? The short answer is no. Alex Salmond was quick to point this out in another BBC interview when <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/alex-salmond-scottish-parliament-cannot-block-brexit/">he stressed</a> that the “word ‘veto’ never passed her lips”. </p>
<p>The reason for possible confusion is that if Westminster decides to pass legislation that will affect issues under Holyrood jurisdiction, the Scottish parliament needs to be consulted and pass a motion of consent first. The <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2016/11/contents/enacted">Scotland Act 2016</a> passed on the back of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">Scottish independence referendum</a> put this on a statutory footing, though it was the recognised practice anyway. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2016/11/section/2/enacted">According to</a> the Act:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the parliament of the United Kingdom will not normally legislate with regard to devolved matters without the consent of the Scottish parliament. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Brexit changes will certainly fall into the category that requires this consent. The laws that tie the UK to the EU require to be repealed – most notably the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1972/68/contents">European Communities Act 1972</a>. These laws are intrinsic to how the Scottish parliament operates, since for example all legislation it passes has to comply with EU law. </p>
<p>Given that every Scottish local authority has voted to remain in the EU and most Holyrood politicians took the same view, Nicola Sturgeon was therefore correct to raise the prospect of the Scottish parliament withholding a “legislative consent” motion for repealing these laws.</p>
<p>Yet like most things in life, context is all. The sovereignty of Westminster on its own decisions is also guaranteed by the legislation around devolution. <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/contents">It says</a> the relevant laws do not “affect the power of the parliament of the United Kingdom to make laws for Scotland”.</p>
<p>This means that power ultimately rests with Westminster. Even if the Scottish parliament registers concern or outright opposition, the laws to exit the EU could still be passed. This may be politically problematic but Westminster’s power has no statutory restriction by the Scotland Acts. So to call it a “veto” is inaccurate. </p>
<p>The issue was even put to the test during the passage of the UK’s Welfare Reform Act of 2012. The Scottish parliament <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-16292327">declined</a> to grant legislative consent amid fears that the welfare cuts in the legislation would hurt the poor. It made no difference: the law was passed and fully implemented across the UK. </p>
<h2>Consent and indyref2</h2>
<p>This phantom “veto” is not the only Scottish constitutional issue to emerge from the earthquake of the EU referendum. The Scottish referendum that was once described as “<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11095210/Alex-Salmond-This-is-a-once-in-a-generation-opportunity-for-Scotland.html">once in a generation</a>” is now “<a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-back-in-play-after-brexit-shock-with-a-note-of-caution-61457">highly likely</a>” to be repeated before the UK’s Brexit negotiations conclude, according to Sturgeon. </p>
<p>The legal issues around this so-called “indyref2” (second independence referendum) are not straightforward, however. The first referendum of September 2014 only came about following the <a href="http://www.gov.scot/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence">Edinburgh Agreement</a> between the Scottish and UK government. Westminster had to temporarily transfer powers to the Scottish parliament to run the referendum in a move that expired on December 31 2014.</p>
<p>The devolution legislation is ambiguous at best on Holyrood’s power to run an independence referendum of its own. The constitution is a reserved matter and by signing the Edinburgh Agreement, the Scottish government seemed to concede that Westminster approval is necessary.</p>
<p>If Westminster blocked a future referendum it would therefore have a legal basis to do so. Indeed prior to Brexit, this was the position of David Cameron, the prime minister. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/27/david-cameron-rule-out-second-scottish-independence-referendum">He said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think it is important that a referendum is legal and properly constituted and that is what we had, and it was decisive, so I do not see the need for another one.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Yet the question is as much political as legal. The idea of Westminster rejecting a referendum in the face of a deepening European constitutional crisis and contrary to the wishes of the Scottish government seems unlikely. The Scottish parliament would probably carry on regardless, even if it creates a legal minefield. The general public’s crash course in constitutional law may run for some time to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61711/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick McKerrell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Holyrood is ultimately answerable to Westminster, Westminster is ultimately answerable to realpolitik.Nick McKerrell, Lecturer in Law, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/616092016-06-25T13:34:46Z2016-06-25T13:34:46ZLondon after Brexit: independence a non-starter but special status could protect global position<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128111/original/image-20160625-28366-y2eayo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union leaves London in a peculiar position. London is Europe’s – if not the world’s – preeminent global city and financial centre. And this is in no small part because it makes its living off its connections to both Europe and the wider world. Consequently, the reality of Brexit is likely to be particularly acute and consequential for London’s economy and workforce, over and above the rest of the UK.</p>
<p>Given that <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/leave-or-remain-eu-referendum-results-and-live-maps/">almost 60% of Londoners</a> voted to remain in the EU, it’s perhaps not surprising that the familiar question of whether London should become an autonomous city-state <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-referendum-results-londoners-call-for-capital-to-become-independent-state-after-brexit-vote-a3279801.html">has resurfaced</a>. </p>
<p>The idea was first proposed back in the 1990s, and resurfaced <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21934564">most recently</a> during the Scottish independence referendum of 2014. Now, Brexit has highlighted stark contrasts in voting preference across the UK. Remain achieved a majority in London, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar, while Leave won more votes in England and Wales. </p>
<p>These divides have resurrected the issue of Scottish independence, with Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon putting the prospect of another referendum back <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14578654.Nicola_Sturgeon_says_a_second_independence_referendum_is__on_the_table__after_Brexit_vote/?ref=rl&lp=2">on the table</a>. And now, it appears this move has inspired more than <a href="https://www.change.org/p/sadiq-khan-declare-london-independent-from-the-uk-and-apply-to-join-the-eu">120,000 Londoners</a> to petition the city’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, to take London out of the UK and re-enter the EU. </p>
<h2>International city</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128112/original/image-20160625-28358-rbjons.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128112/original/image-20160625-28358-rbjons.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1129&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128112/original/image-20160625-28358-rbjons.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1129&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128112/original/image-20160625-28358-rbjons.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1129&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128112/original/image-20160625-28358-rbjons.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128112/original/image-20160625-28358-rbjons.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128112/original/image-20160625-28358-rbjons.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flying away.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Smith</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On one level, the idea makes sense: ever since the 1970s, London has become ever more detached from the rest of Britain; in the UK, but increasingly not of the UK. It is not simply that the UK has become more London-centric. Rather, London has become a metropolis that belongs to the world. The city has gradually separated from its national territory, and increasingly operated as another country whose role, status and success is determined by its relation with the world, rather than with the rest of the UK.</p>
<p>Throughout several decades of globalisation, the UK has been pooling its sovereignty, or losing control, over many issues that were traditionally its sole reserve. International agreements and policies for more open access, the liberalisation of international trade in goods and services, reduced state control through privatisation, decreasing regulation and bureaucracy and more open migration has meant that the UK has reconfigured or lost many of its previously exclusive powers. </p>
<p>With the formation of the European Union, international institutions –- such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund –- and international regulatory bodies, London is no longer just the capital of the UK; it stands alongside New York as the world’s most important global city and international financial centre: one of the twin capitals of the global economy.</p>
<h2>Londependence day</h2>
<p>There are three main points typically used to argue that London should go it alone. For one thing, London’s economic dominance over the rest of the UK is highlighted, to argue that London effectively subsidises the rest of the UK with little benefit to itself. Taxes levied on London <a href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2100345/Londons-taxes-prop-rest-UK-One-pound-earned-capital-funds-rest-country.html">exceed what is returned</a> in government spending, providing a net subsidy to the rest of the UK worth about a fifth of its GDP. </p>
<p>What’s more, London’s economic, political, cultural and demographic differences to the rest of the UK were further widened by the city’s greater resilience in weathering the 2008 global financial crisis. By emphasising London’s unique global role, campaigners seek to present it as alien to the UK; another country, which is more cosmopolitan and global; an economic success story with well-paid jobs, sky-high property values and rapid growth. </p>
<p>Finally, it is argued that London is a problem for the UK as a whole. The argument goes that the rest of the UK is hamstrung by the success of a London, which takes away its resources, talent, people and investment. It is suggested that letting London go could allow what remains of the UK to build an economy that is more geographically and economically balanced; not hyper-focused on the south-east and financial and commercial services.</p>
<p>The idea that London will become an independent city-state, a kind of “Singapore in Europe”, is improbable, to say the least. Unlike many other European cities, London has no history of political independence – even having an elected mayor is a relatively recent phenomenon. As it stands, there is no established precedent, and therefore no mechanism, no jurisdiction, no authority and no will to take such a bold step. </p>
<p>But perhaps the notion of a London that is somehow still within the EU single market is not a complete political impossibility. The brutal fact is that the interests of London do not necessarily coincide with those of the rest of the UK – and our politicians need to recognise that.</p>
<p>So, the aftershocks of Brexit could lead to London being granted some kind of special autonomy within the UK. There’s no doubt that London would welcome the devolved powers, policies and taxations that it needs to protect and enhance its position as a premier global city and the leading financial centre on the European and global stage. One thing is for sure, London’s voice – through City Hall – needs to be heard in the negotiations that will now take place, over the nature of the UK’s divorce from Europe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard G Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Once again, Londoners are calling for the city to become independent: could it really happen?Richard G Smith, Associate Professor of Geography, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/613872016-06-22T10:39:56Z2016-06-22T10:39:56ZIf Scotland blocks England from Brexit, what happens next?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127604/original/image-20160621-12998-zlao86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&search_tracking_id=52bZPhQTsWgzgZdp6c6YCA&searchterm=scotland%20fights%20england&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=128342582">Aquir</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Scottish voters <a href="https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3743/The-Tinman-referendum-the-EU-debate-in-Scotland-is-lacking-heart.aspx">don’t regard</a> the EU referendum with the same importance as the independence vote of 2014. No one is suggesting Scottish turnout will be anywhere near <a href="http://news.sky.com/story/1338396/astonishing-turnout-breaks-uk-voting-records">the 85%</a> of that poll – more likely 20 points below. Yet the EU referendum could have fascinating implications for Scotland. </p>
<p>All polls <a href="http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/">indicate</a> a close result across the UK, but a very clear Remain vote <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls">in Scotland</a> (and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36553552">Northern Ireland</a>). This leaves three realistic scenarios. Scotland could vote to stay in while the UK votes to leave – thanks to England. The UK could vote to stay in by a very narrow margin, with a Scottish Remain majority effectively blocking a narrow English vote to leave. Or the UK could vote Remain, with both England and Scotland in favour.</p>
<p>Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, and her senior SNP colleagues have <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32222806">long said</a> Scotland being forced from the EU against its will would be the kind of “material change” that would justify a second independence referendum. But would they want to? The first minister has also <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/nicola-sturgeon-snp-manifesto-second-independence-vote">openly stated</a> the Scottish government would only call for a referendum if public opinion indicates a significant uplift from the 45% Yes vote of 2014 – probably towards about 60%. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127605/original/image-20160621-13036-ar21ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127605/original/image-20160621-13036-ar21ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127605/original/image-20160621-13036-ar21ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=972&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127605/original/image-20160621-13036-ar21ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=972&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127605/original/image-20160621-13036-ar21ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=972&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127605/original/image-20160621-13036-ar21ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1222&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127605/original/image-20160621-13036-ar21ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1222&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127605/original/image-20160621-13036-ar21ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1222&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sturge seeks surge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&search_tracking_id=KM4Bme_AEERjYPKtdb6X2g&searchterm=nicola%20sturgeon&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=378245470">Twocoms</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A <a href="http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/scottish-referendum-study">large number</a> of middle-class Scots voted No because of the economic uncertainty of independence. In the event of a Brexit vote, the same rationale may make them lean the other way if they thought an independent Scotland could remain in the EU. Current EU referendum polling <a href="http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/">certainly indicates</a> the better off in Scotland are more likely to vote Remain. On the other hand, the fact that Scottish voters see the EU referendum as less important than the independence referendum suggests the EU result may not alter their opinion about Scottish independence.</p>
<p>Either way, the Scottish government is likely to be cautious. Since economic certainty is important for these swing voters, it may be a case of seeing what happens. The UK’s exit negotiations with the EU may not run smoothly – the EU may wish to signal to the likes of the <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3632832/Support-EU-plummets-Europe-wake-migrant-crisis-French-hate-Britain-survey-reveals-ahead-Brexit-vote.html">eurosceptic French</a> that the exit path carries costs. That could boost support for independence among these middle class Scots, though how voters react to uncertainty is itself uncertain. </p>
<p>If so, we would then probably see debates about an independent Scotland’s relationship to the remainder of the UK’s “single market” and its currency – indeed, Sturgeon has <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/nicola-sturgeon-euro-discussion-possible-in-event-of-brexit-1-4160424">already indicated</a> there would be discussions about Scotland joining the eurozone in the event of a Brexit. Many would want to know how welcoming the EU would be to an independent Scotland and whether fast-track entry would be possible. </p>
<p>Even if the SNP did feel there was the momentum for another “indyref”, bear in mind the power to hold a legally secure referendum is reserved to Westminster. In this UK Leave/Scotland Remain scenario, would it authorise another vote? My guess is it would depend on the strength of feeling. David Cameron may well resist one, but a post-Brexit leader might take a different view, perhaps in a bid to shelve independence for a generation. But they might play hardball with timing, the nature of the question and so forth. </p>
<h2>The ‘Scotland blocks Brexit’ scenario</h2>
<p>On one level there ought to be no problem with our second scenario. Leading Brexiters presented themselves as strongly British unionists during both referendum campaigns, so they shouldn’t complain if the UK has voted as the UK. Yet it is still easy to imagine the idea of Scotland obstructing the will of England becoming a major political flashpoint. </p>
<p>How it played out would depend on whether David Cameron was prime minister. If he remained there would be little immediate change, yet it would be an era of even more political positioning and posturing than now. Cameron would probably face rebellions on European issues from pro-Brexit Tories similar to <a href="http://www.brugesgroup.com/images/media_centre/papers/TheDispossessedtheBastards.pdf">John Major’s premiership post-Maastricht</a>. He would be relying on opposition support for such votes, not least perhaps from the SNP voting bloc. </p>
<p>This could exacerbate the sense of injustice among English nationalists already decrying the EU referendum as a European version of the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/jan/17/what-is-west-lothian-question">West Lothian question</a> (the problem of Scottish MPs potentially holding the casting vote at Westminster on purely English issues). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127608/original/image-20160621-12995-16xo55a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127608/original/image-20160621-12995-16xo55a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127608/original/image-20160621-12995-16xo55a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127608/original/image-20160621-12995-16xo55a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127608/original/image-20160621-12995-16xo55a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127608/original/image-20160621-12995-16xo55a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127608/original/image-20160621-12995-16xo55a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127608/original/image-20160621-12995-16xo55a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">None shall pass.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&search_tracking_id=ro-iczTMnJ4CiEIbXWYFfA&searchterm=highland%20cow%20on%20the%20road&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=407208217">Rolf G Wackenburg</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The situation could become more dangerous when the prime minister steps down. The new leader in a party whose root and branch is predominantly pro-Brexit would likely tack towards English nationalism – as Cameron <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/19/david-cameron-devolution-revolution-uk-scotland-vote">himself attempted</a> immediately after the Scottish independence referendum (his plan for English votes for English laws has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35295404">led to</a> some procedural changes in the Commons). </p>
<p>The substance of this nationalism would matter. Would it broadly focus on tolerance, democracy and respect for diversity? Or would it be more exclusionary and self-assertive, responding to what it saw as the threats to English society? If it were more the latter that might be distinctly unwelcome in Scotland, and might have implications for independence support. </p>
<p>On the other hand, it is not impossible to imagine an English nationalist UK government paying less attention to the devolved nations – particularly Scotland, where there are so few Tory MPs and the financial settlement with Westminster has <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/23/scottish-uk-governments-agree-holyrood-funding-deal">already been agreed</a> until 2020. The Brexiters have barely addressed the Scottish question during the referendum, so we’re really in unknown territory. </p>
<p>Whatever the case, it would be unwise to assume that two referendum victories for Cameron would mean politics would return to the pre-2014 days. You only need look at the Scottish referendum to see that politics rarely plays out this way. Even if the vote is Remain both north and south of the Scotland-England border, there will be a Tory leadership election relatively soon and the party will have substantial divisions to heal following all the “blue on blue” hostility of the EU referendum. </p>
<p>A Brexit leader such as Boris Johnson as prime minister while the Scottish nationalists continue to look for another independence opportunity, would certainly mean interesting times. The outcome of the vote on June 23 could well be an important staging post to whatever happens between England and Scotland next.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61387/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duncan McTavish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Boris could be about to discover a taste for Scottish nationalism.Duncan McTavish, Professor of Public Policy and Management, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/608972016-06-14T12:59:28Z2016-06-14T12:59:28ZFact Check: do 89% of businesses really support Remain?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126181/original/image-20160610-29219-1v16oq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ready for my close up.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=business%20attitudes&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=216365722">Irina Braga</a></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p><em>Independent poll: 89% of businesses back staying in Europe.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Britain Stronger in Europe <a href="http://www.strongerin.co.uk/get_the_facts#5V2t8bz1mzTk24zu.97">campaign claim</a></strong></p>
<p>Immigration and the economy have taken centre stage in the British EU referendum. The future economic performance of the UK in particular – its growth, job and wealth creation prospects – depends on how business fares. This helps explain why business attitudes to the referendum have regularly been published in the run-up. </p>
<p>The Britain Stronger in Europe <a href="http://www.strongerin.co.uk/get_the_facts#vSBLftmwq0i1Jt5E.97">campaign relies on</a> one such survey in its campaign literature. Conducted by the Council of British Chambers of Commerce in Europe (COBCOE), it <a href="http://www.cobcoe.eu/files/cobcoe-europe-member-poll-results-fa-aLS79E.pdf">found that</a> 89% of member businesses were opposed to a UK exit from the EU, while only 7% were in favour. The claim is <a href="http://www.libdemvoice.org/what-our-liberal-democrat-leaders-are-saying-about-the-eu-referendum-50868.html">regularly repeated</a> by voices on the Remain side as evidence of the economic damage that a Brexit would cause. So is it accurate?</p>
<p>In fact, it turns out that the survey does not include any UK businesses. Instead, it reflects the views of the members of a total of 38 national chambers of commerce in countries ranging from Austria to Israel to Ukraine. This appears to make it quite a strange survey for Remain to be relying on. </p>
<p>When you look at other business surveys, several things stand out. They too tend to back Remain – if a little less decisively – and the balance of opinion is much tighter with smaller companies than larger ones. The CBI’s <a href="http://news.cbi.org.uk/news/cbi-to-make-economic-case-to-remain-in-eu-after-reaffirming-strong-member-mandate/">survey in March</a> of nearly 800 UK companies found 84% backing Remain among large companies and 71% among smaller ones. </p>
<p>The British Chambers of Commerce <a href="http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/policy-maker/policy-reports-and-publications/bcc-eu-survey-business-vote-tightens-as-referendum-campaign-heads-to-the-finish-line.html">survey</a> of 2,200 members from May found 54% backed Remain compared to 37% against. The smallest businesses were more narrowly in favour, however. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/02/uk-small-businesses-are-evenly-split-on-brexit-poll-says">TNS survey</a> in June of more than 500 small and medium-sized companies found 38% backed Remain and 37% Leave. Yet a new <a href="https://theconversation.com/british-fishermen-want-out-of-the-eu-heres-why-60803">academic survey</a> of UK skippers and boat owners in the fishing industry <a href="https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/uk/942753/skippers-want-out-of-eu-according-to-aberdeen-university-research/">found that</a> 92% favour a Brexit. This all raises interesting questions about the differences between various businesses. </p>
<h2>Scottish echoes</h2>
<p>During the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">Scottish independence referendum</a> of 2014, I conducted <a href="http://www.business-school.ed.ac.uk/blogs/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2016/01/Working-Paper-Referendum-CEO-Guide-Kelly-and-MacKay-08-January-2015.pdf">extensive research</a> into business attitudes. Despite close to 50 referendums on various issues across Europe since 2011 alone, there has been very little systematic research of this kind into business opinion. </p>
<p>I found business attitudes to an independence referendum are generally driven by a small number of variables: where the business is headquartered; the ownership structure; the jurisdiction where the balance of its trade takes place; and the most advantageous place for foreign direct investment by multinationals. Having applied the same framework to the EU referendum, it turns out the same variables apply. </p>
<p>Business leaders of UK-headquartered listed companies, or multinationals with subsidiary headquarters in the UK with significant trade in the EU, have been the most perplexed by a vote to leave and most willing to relocate business investment elsewhere. That is why 36 heads of FTSE 100 companies <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35636838">signed an open letter</a> arguing for a Remain vote, and 95% of members of the British American Business Association <a href="http://www.babc.org/public/docs/BATI2016_Guide_WEB.pdf">oppose</a> a Brexit. </p>
<p>Heads of privately-owned companies with comparable EU trading interests also oppose a Brexit, though without the same shareholder pressures they tend to be more willing to soldier on with UK investments if it comes to pass. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/18/richard-branson-says-eu-exit-would-be-saddest-day-for-britain-european-union-virgin">Think about</a> Sir Richard Branson and the Virgin group, for instance. </p>
<p>People who run private companies whose trade is more global are either ambivalent or in favour of leaving – if they can identify a specific benefit for their business. Lord Bamford, the chairman of building group JCB who <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36485985">came out</a> in favour of Leave recently, is a prime example of the latter. Companies of this sort are a minority, however. </p>
<p>Business leaders most in favour of Leave are the ones who mainly trade at home and see a cost advantage or a greater ability to influence the political process after separation. Tim Martin of pub chain Wetherspoons <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jd-wetherspoon-interview-tim-martin-eu-referendum-democracy-brexit-imf-bee-mats-2016-6">fits into</a> this category. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>It appears misleading for the Remain side to be using the COBCOE survey, though business surveys do generally lean towards the same point of view. Bigger businesses are pro-Remain – unless their sales are primarily either global or UK-focused – while small and medium-sized businesses trading predominantly at home take a different view. </p>
<p>Sectors with a strong view one way or the other are driven by their own motivations – for instance UK fishermen tend to feel unfairly constrained by fishing quotas allocated by the <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/index_en.htm">European Common Fisheries Policy</a>. </p>
<p>On the whole, however, the business case for Brexit doesn’t appear to add up. </p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p><em>Michael Danson, professor of enterprise policy, Heriot-Watt University</em></p>
<p>This piece has identified that, as with many of the claims made by all sides in the EU referendum, Britain Stronger in Europe has been rather fast and loose with presenting COBCOE’s statistics. Nevertheless it is believable that firms successfully doing business internationally would support the status quo, while those struggling at home may have different concerns or else reflect <a href="http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/">the divisions</a> within the country as a whole.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126528/original/image-20160614-22386-6dblzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126528/original/image-20160614-22386-6dblzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126528/original/image-20160614-22386-6dblzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126528/original/image-20160614-22386-6dblzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126528/original/image-20160614-22386-6dblzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126528/original/image-20160614-22386-6dblzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126528/original/image-20160614-22386-6dblzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/126528/original/image-20160614-22386-6dblzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Good for who?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&search_tracking_id=EPT7E9qi4jCtGcbpzDvHBQ&searchterm=business%20opinion&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=284750732">Mad Dog</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some questions in business surveys are poorly posed or ambiguous – does “good for business” mean for my firm, for trade, or for the economy as a whole? Are these mutually compatible, or is what is good for a multinational contrary to the needs of smaller companies? As with the Scottish referendum, companies’ opinions seem dominated by self-interest, which never necessarily means in all our interests. </p>
<p>Apart from misleading us over business opinion with the COBCOE survey, Britain Stronger in Europe <a href="http://www.strongerin.co.uk/get_the_facts#kQ5lUsDTLMQvRdir.97">also promotes</a> many campaign slides that play up the worst case scenario in the short-term forecasts of banks, treasuries and international bodies – all of which undermine the objectivity of its message. These contrast different futures under the same free-market regime rather than presenting an alternative inclusive EU agenda that could lead to a different future for the continent. </p>
<p><em>This article originally said that the BCC’s survey had micro-businesses backing Brexit. This has now been corrected.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad MacKay receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council in the Future of the UK and Scotland programme, but the views expressed here are entirely his own. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Danson is on the board of the Jimmy Reid Foundation, but the views in this piece are entirely his own.</span></em></p>The Remain campaign cites this survey as proof of the economic benefits of staying in the EU. Here’s the story behind the numbers.Brad MacKay, Professor in Strategic Management, University of St AndrewsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/604942016-06-06T16:10:04Z2016-06-06T16:10:04ZBrexit betting odds: lesson from Scotland is not promising for Leave<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125354/original/image-20160606-25972-16i5gut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Just before they burst. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&search_tracking_id=iU2dBgT4PbF3k_J8T7EZMA&searchterm=scottish%20referendum&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=218099434">Andrea Obzerova</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The runners and riders in the EU referendum are making the final turn into the home straight. Both teams are jostling for position and the race is becoming increasingly acrimonious. The Leave campaign has abandoned the economic arguments and instead is focusing almost exclusively on migration. </p>
<p>The Remain campaign continues to release dire warnings of a post-Brexit world that seems to include all ten plagues of Egypt except slaughter of the firstborn. Following some <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium">good polls</a> for Leave in the past couple of days, the poll of polls <a href="http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/">currently points to</a> a 50-50 dead heat. </p>
<p>Bookies too have been adjusting the odds offered as they seek to maximise their expected gain from the outcome. Over the last few weeks, this resulted in a substantial fall in the implied probability of a Leave outcome – and as I wrote in my <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-campaign-is-doomed-if-bookmakers-are-right-again-57514">previous piece</a> about Brexit odds, the weight of betting was far less promising for Leave than the opinion polls before that anyway. </p>
<p>On April 26, the probability of a vote to leave from the <a href="http://www.oddschecker.com">oddschecker.com</a> average of some 20 bookmakers’ odds stood at 0.35, meaning slightly better than a one in three chance. By May 22 it had fallen to 0.22 or almost one in five. Perhaps the tsunami of warnings from national and international organisations of the economic consequences of Brexit was being factored into punters’ assessments of how the vote will go.</p>
<p>Since then, the news for the Brexit camp has got slightly better. The slide was arrested on May 27 and there has been a modest recovery which took the probability of Brexit up to 0.30 by June 6. Perhaps punters were thinking the switch of emphasis to migration will carry more voter appeal: or that they are more confident of a high turnout among Leave supporters. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-238" class="tc-infographic" height="610" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/238/33b50a32b76a46a5e309241d24d47e9c755bf389/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Of course, these predicted probabilities do not mean that a Leave outcome will not occur – just that it is seen as rather unlikely. They reflect all of the information available to punters. This may be drawn from a wide variety of sources – opinion polls, press coverage, personal contacts and so on. The point has been <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bookmakers-prediction-eu-referendum-brexit-winner-a7046966.html">made elsewhere</a> that punters are not representative of the population as a whole. But they don’t need to be to use this information intelligently. </p>
<p>Indeed, not all those betting need to act in an informed way. So long as there are sufficient well informed punters willing to place their bets where they see an opportunity for gain based on the current odds, the odds will come to reflect the underlying chance that the event occurs (with the small complication that bookies always build in a profit margin).</p>
<p>Will the odds change substantially over the remainder of the campaign? It seems unlikely that they can change sufficiently to suggest that a Leave outcome is more likely than a Remain outcome. Nothing in the history of betting odds suggests that a swing of 24 percentage points is possible over a three-week period. </p>
<h2>Ecosse and effect</h2>
<p>The Scottish referendum is a useful precedent. Events during the last few weeks included some surprises which perhaps punters had not anticipated. Most important was the <a href="http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/scots-independence/60436/scottish-independence-odds-bookmakers-shorten-odds-on-no">closing of the gap</a> between the Yes and No polling. </p>
<p>This had a dramatic effect on media coverage and on the politics during the run-up to the vote. It also influenced the bookies’ odds (see graphic below), increasing the probability of a Yes outcome by 16 percentage points between the 23rd day and the ninth day before the polls. But then the upward momentum petered out and by the time of the vote the odds had fallen back to more or less where they had started. </p>
<p><strong>Betting probability of a Yes vote in Scottish referendum</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125353/original/image-20160606-25992-ie4o4t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125353/original/image-20160606-25992-ie4o4t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125353/original/image-20160606-25992-ie4o4t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125353/original/image-20160606-25992-ie4o4t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125353/original/image-20160606-25992-ie4o4t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125353/original/image-20160606-25992-ie4o4t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125353/original/image-20160606-25992-ie4o4t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125353/original/image-20160606-25992-ie4o4t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Source: oddschecker.com.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On June 5, 18 days before the Brexit vote, the probability of a Leave vote stood at 0.30 or 30%. In Scotland, the probability of a Yes vote at the same point before the independence referendum was slightly lower at 0.20. </p>
<p>While the implied probability of the UK leaving the EU is currently higher than the implied probability of Scotland leaving the UK was at that stage, it will take a bigger and more sustained change of events in the last few days of the campaign than that which happened in Scotland to persuade bookies to offer anything like evens on a vote for Brexit. </p>
<p>To see whether Johnson, Gove and co can make it happen, bookmark this piece. The graphic on the EU referendum betting odds will keep updating as we near polling day. </p>
<h2>Update, June 23</h2>
<p>It looks to me that the betting markets have made up their mind that the status quo is the likely outcome. Like in the Scottish referendum, a late surge towards the more radical alternative petered out in the last week of the campaign, perhaps because of the incessant warnings about the potential risks of change. </p>
<p>Based on the odds being offered on different outcomes for the size of the Remain vote, the most likely outcome is Remain 53.5% – Leave 46.5%. Of course there is a margin of error associated with this estimate. Gamblers have a financial incentive in making the correct prediction, but they could be wrong. We will soon know one way or the other.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60494/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bell receives funding from the ESRC, but the views expressed in this piece are entirely his own. </span></em></p>The swing in betting sentiment the month before the Scottish indyref tells us Boris has his work cut out.David Bell, Professor of Economics, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/593342016-05-13T07:54:51Z2016-05-13T07:54:51ZThe Manchester terror drill – and why we must stop linking Arabic with fanatics<p>Greater Manchester Police <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/11/allahu-akbar-manchester-terror-drill-scripted-police">staged a</a> mock attack featuring a suicide bomber late on the night of Monday May 9. It began at the Trafford Centre shopping complex when a man in black walked into the centre of the main foyer and shouted “Allahu Akbar” – “God is great” – several times at the crowd. Moments later, an explosion rocked the food hall. The 800 volunteers dropped to the floor or ran into cafes and shops screaming for help, many of them made up to look as if they had horrific injuries.</p>
<p>The reaction <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/furious-muslim-group-demands-sackings-7951251#yWoA2Jdg7eoYz246.97">has been</a> largely negative, with many making the point that using the words “Allahu Akbar” reinforced the stereotype that terrorists are primarily Muslim. They rightly said that in reality, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/police-apologise-for-making-fake-suicide-bomber-shout-allahu-akbar-during-counter-terror-exercise-in-a7022196.html">anyone can be</a> a terrorist. By enforcing the Muslim stereotype, the exercise <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/police-apologise-for-making-fake-suicide-bomber-shout-allahu-akbar-during-counter-terror-exercise-in-a7022196.html">divided rather than united</a> people and could increase anti-Muslim hate crime. </p>
<p>The police force was quick to put up a senior officer to respond. Stressing that “Allahu Akbar” was not scripted, he <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/police-apologise-for-making-fake-suicide-bomber-shout-allahu-akbar-during-counter-terror-exercise-in-a7022196.html">called the</a> phrase “unacceptable” and apologised on behalf of the force since it “vocally linked this exercise with Islam”. </p>
<p>End of story? Actually an important point has been overlooked. The commentary has focused on the fact that the attack associated Islam and terrorism, but something else was associated with terrorism, too – the Arabic language. Spoken by an estimated <a href="http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0021/002179/217912e.pdf">422m people</a>, it is one of the most common languages in the world. Have we become so used to associating politics with particular languages that the matter is not considered exceptional or worthy of discussion? </p>
<h2>UK connotations</h2>
<p>This issue goes much wider than Arabic. Staying with the UK, other languages are associated with political ideologies, too. I worked in Northern Ireland for 11 years and could not fail to notice the political stereotypes around the Irish language. I worried that my beautiful Irish language name would generate the perception that my intentions were political – although friends assured me that given I was from the South, the issue did not arise. </p>
<p>Since the days of the hunger striker <a href="http://www.biography.com/people/bobby-sands-20941955">Bobby Sands</a>, who taught himself and other fellow prisoners Irish in the H-Blocks, Sinn Féin has often been accused of politicising Irish. Linking Irish with political intent makes it uncomfortable for some people without nationalist aspirations to speak it in public. </p>
<p>Last year, for instance, the Belfast Telegraph columnist Claire Harrison <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/claire-harrison/why-sinn-fein-needs-to-stop-politicising-the-irish-language-31022485.html">wrote that</a> she stopped her university course in Irish partly because of “a growing discomfort with a general assumption that I was a raving republican”. </p>
<p>The perception that Irish is political has been greatly enhanced by politicians from non-nationalist parties seizing the opportunity to score a point at the expense of the Irish culture. Linda Ervine, a prominent unionist Irish-language speaker, <a href="http://www.irishnews.com/news/2015/02/07/news/mccausland-accused-of-politicising-irish-language-115285/">last year accused</a> Nelson McCausland of the unionist DUP of politicising the Irish language in exactly the same manner he claims republicans are guilty of. It’s not as if it has to be this way. Many of my friends in Northern Ireland who speak Irish on a regular basis do not associate it with politics and are motivated only by a love of Irish culture. </p>
<p>Over the Irish Sea in Scotland, we are seeing signs of something similar. In my <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9ZHj4ihTog">recent TEDx talk</a> on living heritage I noted that Scots has gained a new visibility and credibility as the culture has become more self-confident in the wake of the 2014 <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">independence referendum</a>. Pro-independence daily <a href="http://www.thenational.scot">The National</a> now features a weekly column in Scots, for instance. Yet the emergence of Scots cannot escape the political undertones. As the culture scholar Scott Hames <a href="http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2016/02/19/not-nationality-but-language/">wrote</a> a few months ago, the “question of Scots is now becoming hyper-politicised in crude and distorting ways”. He argued that “national identity is undoubtedly part of the picture; but it needn’t be the whole picture”. </p>
<p>Many of us have heard the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/quora/2014/02/03/what_s_the_difference_between_a_dialect_and_a_language.html">slogan that</a> “a language is a dialect with an army and a navy”. Languages now considered “neutral” or “official” have often gained their visibility and credibility with the support of political structures – a fact often forgotten at the beginning of the 21st century. </p>
<p>So how to respond? The Irish-language activist Aodán Mac Poilín has <a href="http://www.ultach.org">suggested that</a>, rather than attempting to depoliticise languages and break their link with specific communities, we should think about making them appropriate for many communities and in many spheres – multi-politicising them, if you will. With this in mind, it is good to read about the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/if-you-think-the-allah-is-great-london-buses-are-a-problem-youve-proven-why-we-need-them-a7020761.html">latest Arabic initiative</a> in London, in which “Subhan Allah” (or “Glory be to God”) is appearing on posters on the sides of the red buses. This initiative by Islamic Relief is designed to change the negativity about Islam and foster understanding between different communities. </p>
<p>A few days ago, London <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/sadiq-khans-city-hall-team-takes-shape-with-transport-guru-tipped-as-the-first-big-signing-a3243531.html">elected</a> its first Muslim mayor, Sadiq Khan. The <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/great-british-bake-winner-nadiya-7762365">most recent winner</a> of the Great British Bake Off was the Muslim Nadiya Hussain. With more events like these and fewer ill-conceived terror drills and such like, it raises the possibility of multi-politicising Arabic. Perhaps there will come a time when we don’t immediately think of terrorism when we hear the word “Allah”. Perhaps we might think instead about justice, human rights and good food.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59334/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mairead Nic Craith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We often overlook how languages gets caught in political crossfire - and not only in relation to Muslims.Mairead Nic Craith, Professor of Culture and Heritage, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/592082016-05-11T11:43:48Z2016-05-11T11:43:48ZA second indyref looks inevitable – the Scottish election changes nothing<p>It did not take long for political parties and commentators to start making confident pronouncements about what the <a href="https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2016/05/06/the-scottish-parliament-election-2016-another-momentous-event-but-dull-campaign/">Scottish election result</a> means for the future of the union. Equal first prize must go to the Scottish Conservatives and the Scottish National Party. Ruth Davidson and her fellow Conservatives <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/13/ruth-davidson-pledges-to-fight-snp-with-new-campaign-for-the-uni/">are arguing</a> that commanding 24% of Holyrood seats gives them a mandate as the protector of the union, while Nicola Sturgeon <a href="http://stv.tv/news/politics/1353366-sturgeon-says-summer-independence-drive-will-go-ahead/">insists</a> the SNP has sufficient backing to relaunch its independence campaign in the summer – there is always the danger that the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/oct/28/scotland">leopard man of Skye</a> hasn’t heard about the issue, I suppose. </p>
<p>In truth, the result did not really tell us anything more about the two things we already know. The first is that in the short term, the only event that matters is the EU referendum vote on June 23. If most UK voters choose to leave the EU and most in Scotland vote to remain, there will be a constitutional crisis. The ruling SNP will push for a second referendum on Scottish independence; and along with the six Green MSPs, it will have the votes to pass a bill to that effect in the Scottish parliament. The only obstacle would be a UK government led by the party that just used a referendum to justify major constitutional change.</p>
<p>Second, in the absence of such an event we are just killing a horrible amount of time until the next meaningful opportunity to vote on Scottish independence. Assuming the SNP continues to win elections in Scotland, or at least pro-independence parties maintain a majority in Holyrood, I’ve always thought the gap would be about ten years. That would be enough time since the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">2014 vote</a> for the Yes side to see if it can produce a generational change in attitudes. </p>
<p>Instead of admitting this state of affairs, we have the usual posturing from the main parties. Both the Tories and the SNP know that the only other triggers of an early referendum are weak – the <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-60-support-needed-before-next-independence-referendum-1-3920508">SNP’s mooted shift</a> in independence support from the current high forties to around 60%; and the Scottish Greens’ <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/scottish-green-manifesto">mention of</a> a petition with maybe 100,000 votes. Yet they feel they have to keep up the longest game of chicken in Scottish political history. </p>
<p>The only party that really needs the further debate is Scottish Labour. The party’s attempts to appear flexible about the constitution and reinstate some distance with the more staunchly unionist Conservatives often make it look confusingly ambivalent. Witness the furore during the campaign when Labour leader Kezia Dugdale <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35948407">initially refused</a> to rule out backing a second independence referendum in the event of a Scottish Remain/UK Brexit vote. Nearer election day the party <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/dugdale-doesnt-ever-want-to-take-part-in-another-independenc?utm_term=.nmLZJZPbOn#.xsxpKpeoxW">ruled out</a> another referendum for the duration of the current parliament. Now the deputy leader Alex Rowley and other senior voices are <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14479042.Labour_s_deputy_leader_says_party_must_back__home_rule__for_Scotland_after_election_disaster/?ref=rss">calling for</a> full home rule, and one backer, former Labour first minister Henry McLeish, <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mcleish-calls-for-fresh-referendum-xtsnw0kpj">wants this</a> put to the public along with independence in a second referendum. </p>
<h2>The heart of the matter</h2>
<p>Another misleading trope is for commentators to <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14479009.David_Torrance__The_Ulsterisation_of_Scottish_politics_is_complete/">argue that</a> this election marks the complete “Ulsterisation” of Scottish politics, where people vote SNP for independence or Conservative for the union and only identity-politics matters. </p>
<p>It must be a tempting argument, but <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9248.12016/abstract">detailed analysis</a> dating back to the SNP victory in the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2007/scottish_parliment/html/region_99999.stm">2007 election</a> strongly suggests that voters’ biggest reason for backing the party has been the belief it would do the best job in office – “<a href="http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/019924488X.001.0001/acprof-9780199244881-chapter-10">valence politics</a>”, as academics sometimes describe it. This is usually key to getting elected anywhere, along with having a leader and a vision for the future that voters respect. The SNP has benefited from being a party that looks highly professional, even if one’s belief in the party’s competence may admittedly be linked strongly to one’s belief in independence. </p>
<p>The same electoral reality explains why the Conservatives went big on Ruth Davidson during the campaign – many of their promotional materials did not even mention the party. It is also why they used a proxy for governing competence – <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/13/scottish-conservative-manifesto-strong-opposition-snp-ruth-davidson">“strong opposition”</a> – in the absence of the likelihood of them being in government. Meanwhile, Labour may have suffered because compared to the SNP and Conservatives, its seems shambolic. Identity politics surely matters as the factor which underpins core attitudes, but these perceptions around competence and leadership probably better explain the trends in support for each party.</p>
<p>Still, perhaps the biggest lesson from this election is that if you are determined to make and act on this argument about identity politics you should do it well. The SNP and Conservatives did it well. In contrast, too many senior people in Scottish Labour – including the leader, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0788y0t">Kezia Dugdale</a>, and former deputy <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/08/scottish-labour-under-pressure-revisit-home-rule">Anas Sarwar</a> – expressed disappointment that the electorate did not think like them. As has been <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-mcternan-three-reasons-why-voters-punished-scottish-labour-1-4121408">pointed out elsewhere</a>, this is hardly likely to endear voters. Put together, constitutional ambivalence and strategic incompetence can be off-putting. So the two biggest parties in the Scottish parliament might be annoyingly narrow-minded, but at least they look like they know what they are doing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cairney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Everyone is trying to claim the Holyrood result furthers their own position. It’s all noise.Paul Cairney, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/590072016-05-06T09:16:40Z2016-05-06T09:16:40ZScottish election 2016: disaster for Labour, reality check for the SNP – and the Tories are back<p>The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland">2016 Scottish election</a> was <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-election-2016-six-things-you-need-to-know-57993">meant to be</a> a foregone conclusion. Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP was expected to achieve another majority in a repeat of 2011, but it hasn’t happened. The party is the clear winner, securing a historic third term, but two seats short of the majority line. It didn’t quite win as many constituencies as it hoped, and the regional-list vote didn’t deliver enough seats to get the SNP to the magic 65. </p>
<p>The other big surprise is the scale of the Conservative revival. The polls <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/05/the-final-poll-apart-from-the-one-that-really-matters/">were predicting</a> a tight race between Labour and the Conservatives for second place, although most commentators believed that Labour would just about hold on to its position as the largest opposition party. As things have transpired, Labour had a terrible night and now finds itself as Scotland’s third party. Ten years ago – even five years ago – such a thought would have been inconceivable. Ruth Davidson’s Conservatives are now the official Holyrood opposition, with seven seats more than Labour. </p>
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<p>So what happened? As with any election, the dust has to settle and the result picked over in greater detail. But a few patterns have emerged.</p>
<h2>Labour is decimated</h2>
<p>In areas that have traditionally been considered Labour heartlands, the SNP has done very well and Kezia Dugdale’s Labour party very badly. In Glasgow, for example, the SNP has secured a clean sweep of constituency seats and increased its majorities in the seats it won in 2011. In that city, as well as Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire and Fife, we have seen a similar pattern to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/scotland">UK election of 2015</a>. Patrick Harvie, co-convenor of the Scottish Greens, even knocked Labour into third place in Glasgow Kelvin. </p>
<p>Barring a few exceptions, it has been the SNP that has come out comfortably on top. Labour’s Jackie Baillie narrowly held Dumbarton, the constituency which houses the UK’s Trident missile system; and former leader Iain Gray narrowly held on to East Lothian as he had done in 2011. Edinburgh Southern was also won by Labour, local factors playing a key role there as they did at last year’s general election – the equivalent Westminster seat is Labour’s only one in Scotland. On the whole, however, the trend for the SNP replacing Labour as the party of Scotland’s working classes has continued unabated. In all, Labour lost 13 constituency seats to be left with just three – one fewer than the Lib Dems. </p>
<p>Labour gained some solace from Scotland’s eight regions, which offer a route for parties to gain seats to counter the disproportionality of first-past-the-post constituencies. It picked up four seats in Glasgow this way, but Mid Scotland and Fife returned them only two list MSPs despite the party winning no constituencies in the region. Lothian and Highlands and Islands also proved disappointing, returning two Labour MSPs on both lists. </p>
<h2>The Conservatives are back</h2>
<p>The story of the night has been the performance of the Conservatives in constituencies across Scotland, taking seven first-past-the-post seats compared to three last time, including their leader Ruth Davidson in Edinburgh Central. As results from Glasgow and the surrounding area came in, it was clear the party was going to make gains, increasing its share of the vote by around ten percentage points in some seats where it has struggled in recent decades. The Conservatives also made significant gains from Labour in Eastwood and Dumfriesshire and from the SNP in Edinburgh Central and Aberdeenshire West. </p>
<p>In North East Fife, a Lib Dem gain from the SNP, the Conservatives’ share of the vote fell slightly. Only in Ornkey did that also happen. In Edinburgh Western, another Lib Dem gain from the SNP, the Conservative increase was minimal. It perhaps signifies a willingness for Conservative voters to back the Lib Dems in these seats.</p>
<p>The Conservatives did well in the list seats, too. They won three MSPs in Central Scotland, by no means a region that is typically sympathetic to the Conservatives, and four in North East Scotland, helping keep the SNP off the list altogether. The party also won two seats in the Glasgow region and three in Highlands and Islands. Nationally, the party has increased its share of the vote by 8.1 points to 22%, only 0.6 points behind Labour.</p>
<h2>The battle for fourth</h2>
<p>The lists meanwhile helped the Scottish Greens to overtake the Liberal Democrats to become the fourth party of Holyrood, with six seats. Added to the SNP seats this does mean that the pro-independence parties retain a majority. </p>
<p>Yet the Greens are one MSP short of their 2003-07 heyday, and have achieved fewer than some polls <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-election-2016-why-next-parliament-will-be-anything-but-dull-58677">were predicting</a>. They had a slightly disappointing showing in Glasgow by managing only one MSP in the form of Patrick Harvie, but in Lothian they picked up two seats, as well one in both Mid Scotland and Fife, Highlands and Islands and West of Scotland. </p>
<p>Despite another disappointing night in Scotland for the Lib Dems, there were a couple of surprises. Aside from holding both Orkney and Shetland, the party managed to gain two seats from the SNP. In North East Fife, the party’s leader, Willie Rennie, ran out the comfortable winner, while the party also won Edinburgh Western. In both seats there appears to have been significant tactical voting, with the Liberal Democrats likely benefiting from Conservative defectors. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/politics/ukips-david-coburn-tipped-to-take-partys-first-seat-in-holyrood-despite-embarrassing-gaffes.16988">predictions</a> that UKIP might pick up a seat came to nothing. </p>
<h2>The big picture</h2>
<p>The election seems to have reflected the divisions in Scotland over the constitution and class. In areas that are more deprived and traditionally working class and which had a high Yes vote in the independence referendum, the pattern is broadly strong support for the SNP coupled with decline in the Labour vote. </p>
<p>In areas that are more middle class and which voted No in the referendum, the Conservatives have done particularly well apart from a couple of exceptions, namely the Liberal Democrat gains on the mainland. The Conservatives’ framing themselves as a firm unionist opposition to the SNP appears, at least on the surface, to have had some impact. Within this structural fusion of class and constitutional politics, Scottish Labour is struggling to articulate a vision that fits into this new reality.</p>
<p>The SNP will seek to govern as a minority administration, like it did in the 2007-11 parliament. This opens up opportunities for the other parties to do deals in return for supporting the government’s legislation. Although on the face of it one would think the Greens would be the natural party for the SNP to do business with, there is quite some distance between them on issues such as taxation. </p>
<p>During the 2007-11 parliament, the SNP did quite a few deals with the Conservatives – passing the budget in return for increased police numbers, for example. It will be interesting to see to what extent we see a repeat this time around – and whether the nationalists continue to treat Labour as their primary enemy. And although the result is something of a disappointment for the SNP, it must be remembered that the Scottish parliament was designed to be a place where overall majorities were pretty much impossible. We will probably look back on the 2011-2016 parliament as an aberration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59007/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig McAngus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new normal for Nicola – minority rule once more.Craig McAngus, Lecturer in Politics, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.