tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/nancy-pelosi-13850/articlesNancy Pelosi – The Conversation2023-11-16T01:35:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2177542023-11-16T01:35:59Z2023-11-16T01:35:59ZWhat Joe Biden’s meeting with Xi Jinping means for geopolitical tensions<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/what-joe-bidens-meeting-with-xi-jinping-means-for-geopolitical-tensions" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>U.S. President Joe Biden has engaged in a crucial <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/joe-biden-has-points-to-prove-as-he-meets-xi-jinping-on-wednesday/articleshow/105217280.cms">face-to-face meeting</a> with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco.</p>
<p>This high-stakes diplomatic encounter was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/15/politics/biden-xi-meeting/index.html">aimed at alleviating tensions between the world’s two superpowers</a>. The meeting carried immense significance as leaders of the world’s largest economies seek to establish a sense of stability following a challenging year in U.S.-China relations.</p>
<p>Even though both leaders have said they want <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-xi-apec-san-francisco-58d11e7e3902955302182c2bc41430e0">to stabilize their relationship</a>, the meeting is unlikely to bring about transformative changes between the two countries that are inherently antagonistic due to deeper structural reasons. </p>
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<h2>New Cold War?</h2>
<p>The U.S. and China are enmeshed in a grand power competition in which <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-long-game-chinas-grand-strategy-to-displace-american-order/">China aspires to supplant the United States as a superpower</a> while the U.S. aims to maintain its position. </p>
<p>This rivalry spans various facets of global politics, encompassing military, economic and technological domains. However, the contours of this new Cold War differ markedly <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/cold-war">from the previous one</a>, with three key distinctions:</p>
<ol>
<li>In contrast to the Soviet Union, China is intricately woven into the American-built economic order. <a href="https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/09/28/how-the-liberal-international-order-shaped-chinas-challenge-to-global-economic-governance/">Beijing’s integration</a> into the global economic framework has been instrumental in its substantial economic development. Unlike the Soviet Union, which existed outside this economic order, China’s active participation has transformed the dynamics of the current geopolitical landscape.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/business/us-china-economy-trade.html">economic interdependence</a> between the U.S. and China sets this rivalry apart. Unlike the relatively self-contained economies of the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, China relies on the American market for its product sales, while the U.S. depends on China for financial transactions.</li>
<li>People-to-people contact between the U.S. and China surpasses the ties between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. With a 5.4 million-strong <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/chinese-immigrants-united-states/">Chinese diaspora</a> in the U.S. and 300,000 Chinese students studying in American universities, the connections between both countries make outright hostilities less likely.</li>
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<h2>Stabilizing relations</h2>
<p>In this context, the term coined by American political scientist Joseph Nye — “<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/joe-biden-us-china-relations-cooperative-rivalry-by-joseph-s-nye-2021-05">co-operative rivalry</a>” — aptly characterizes Chinese-American relations. </p>
<p>The challenges of our globalized world — including climate change, pandemics, artificial intelligence, economic volatility and human security — necessitate active Chinese participation. These challenges make it particularly important that the U.S. and China stabilize relations. </p>
<p>The current emphasis on competition over co-operation needs to be shelved. Both nations should seek equilibrium by fostering co-operation in areas of mutual interest while navigating competition in areas of divergence.</p>
<p>Already complex relations between the U.S. and China have been tense in recent years. China was miffed when former U.S. House Speaker <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/pelosi-taiwan-china-us-1.6538434">Nancy Pelosi visited</a> Taiwan in August 2022. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nancy-pelosis-visit-to-taiwan-causes-an-ongoing-chinese-tantrum-in-the-taiwan-strait-188205">Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan causes an ongoing Chinese tantrum in the Taiwan Strait</a>
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<p>Because China asserts territorial claims over Taiwan, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/29/asia/tsai-ing-wen-taiwan-president-us-stopover-central-america-trip-intl-hnk/index.html">a stopover</a> in the U.S. by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen added to the list of contentious issues. </p>
<p>Beijing also expressed displeasure over new <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/07/biden-administration-tech-restrictions-china">U.S. exports restrictions</a> on advanced technology, and Biden’s directive to shoot down a Chinese <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/spy-balloon-technology/index.html">spy balloon</a> in February 2023.</p>
<h2>Spats intensified</h2>
<p>Tensions escalated to the point that China severed military-to-military communications with the U.S. after Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, despite <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3224794/why-china-still-refusing-resume-military-dialogue-us-despite-antony-blinkens-latest-appeal">repeated American appeals for China to reopen these lines of communication</a> to prevent any misconceptions or accidental escalations of conflict in the South China region and Taiwan. </p>
<p>When the U.S. downed the Chinese spy balloon, China’s foreign ministry contended that it was conducting meteorological research. American authorities, however, insisted it carried surveillance equipment inconsistent with a weather balloon.</p>
<p>In response to the balloon incident, Secretary of State Antony Blinken <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/03/politics/china-us-balloon-intl/index.html">cancelled his planned visit to Beijing</a> in protest. </p>
<p>Subsequently, China declined to reschedule the visit for several months. This communications void at both military and political levels between China and the U.S. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/amid-tensions-biden-xi-discuss-restoring-us-china/story?id=104916838">posed a significant risk of potentially dangerous consequences</a>. One of the outcomes of the Biden-Xi meeting is that military-to-military discussions will resume.</p>
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<h2>The Xi-Biden meeting</h2>
<p>Prior to the meeting, U.S. National Security Adviser <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/national-security-adviser-jake-sullivan-face-the-nation-transcript-11-12-2023/">Jake Sullivan emphasized</a> the importance of addressing fundamental aspects of the U.S.-China relationship, highlighting the need to strengthen open lines of communication and responsibly manage competition to prevent it from escalating into conflict.</p>
<p>Sullivan acknowledged the necessity of “intense diplomacy” to clarify misconceptions and avert surprises.</p>
<p>China’s economy is currently <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/why-is-chinas-economy-slowing-down-could-it-get-worse-2023-09-01/">experiencing a slowdown</a>, marked by falling prices due to subdued demand from both consumers and businesses. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economists-stick-to-2024-china-outlook-while-assessing-stimulus-1.1991680">With a projected economic growth of five per cent this year and an expected dip to 4.5 per cent in 2024</a>, these economic challenges have adversely affected Xi’s domestic political standing. That may be behind any motivation to improve relations with the U.S. to address these domestic issues.</p>
<p>Biden, too, is keen on stabilizing relations with China. Confronted with escalating conflicts in the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/14/israel-hamas-war-list-of-key-events-day-39">Middle East</a> and the ongoing <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-says-russian-frontline-attacks-rising-germany-says-eu-won-t-meet-1m-pieces-of-ammo-target/ar-AA1jTjAI">war in Ukraine</a>, Biden is eager to avert the emergence of another global crisis during his tenure. </p>
<p>Restoring a semblance of stability to the Washington-Beijing relationship <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/14/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china/">has been among the top priorities in his foreign policy agenda.</a> </p>
<h2>What the meeting might accomplish</h2>
<p>One summit alone cannot resolve the extensive list of grievances between the two superpowers. Those challenges include issues like espionage, intellectual property theft, human rights abuses, foreign interference and trade penalties, as well as the sensitive matter of Taiwan. </p>
<p>The meeting addressed another point of contention between the two countries: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biden-xi-talk-fentanyl-city-gripped-by-opioid-crisis-2023-11-15/">fentanyl shipments</a>. The leaders announced an agreement intended to stop China’s illicit exports of chemicals that can be used to make the drug that has led to the overdose deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans.</p>
<p>The agreement on re-opening communication channels at both military and civilian levels could be a crucial step in improving China-U.S. relations. It might serve as a foundation to prevent relations from spiralling out of control, and lay the groundwork for addressing broader challenges in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saira Bano does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Relations between the U.S. and China have been particularly tense for the last few years. Can one summit between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping significantly improve relations?Saira Bano, Assistant Professor in Political Science, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170242023-11-06T13:34:51Z2023-11-06T13:34:51ZWhy are US politicians so old? And why do they want to stay in office?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557470/original/file-20231103-25-kk1rtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C2908%2C2397&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump, left, and Joe Biden, both photographed on Nov. 2, 2023, are two of the three oldest men ever to serve as president.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Trump: Brandon Bell/Getty Images; Biden: AP Photo/Evan Vucci</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When former President Bill Clinton showed up at the White House in early 2023, he was there to join President Joe Biden to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-biden-and-bill-clinton-speak-on-30th-anniversary-of-family-and-medical-leave-act">Family and Medical Leave Act</a>. It was hard to avoid the fact that it had been three decades since Clinton was in office – yet at 77, he’s somehow three years younger than Biden.</p>
<p>Biden, now 81 years old, is the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/20/politics/joe-biden-80th-birthday/index.html">first octogenarian to occupy the Oval Office</a> – and his main rival, former President Donald Trump, is 77. A Monmouth University poll taken in October 2023 showed that roughly three-quarters of voters think Biden is <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4233885-more-in-new-poll-likely-to-see-biden-as-too-old-than-trump/">too old for office</a>, and nearly half of voters think Trump is too old to serve. </p>
<p>My former boss, President George H.W. Bush, happily chose not to challenge Clinton again in the 1996 election. If he had run and won, he would have been 72 at the 1997 inauguration. Instead, he <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/bush/life-after-the-presidency">enjoyed a great second act</a> filled with humanitarian causes, skydiving and grandchildren. Bush’s post-presidential life, and <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/506330/americans-outlook-retirement-worsened.aspx">American ideals of retirement</a> in general, raise the question of why these two men, Biden and Trump – who are more than a decade and a half beyond the <a href="https://www.fool.com/research/average-retirement-age/">average American retirement age</a> – are stepping forward again for <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/05/a-broken-office/556883/">one of the hardest jobs in the world</a>.</p>
<h2>A trend toward older people</h2>
<p>Trump and Biden are two of the three oldest men to ever serve as president. For 140 years, William Henry Harrison held the <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/arts-culture/3744771-here-are-the-oldest-us-presidents-to-ever-hold-office/">record</a> as the oldest person ever elected president, until Ronald Reagan came along. Harrison was a relatively spry 68 when he took office in 1841, and Reagan was 69 at his first inauguration in 1981. </p>
<p>When Reagan left office at age 77, he was the oldest person ever to have served as president. Trump left office at age 74, making him the third-oldest to hold the office, behind Reagan and Biden.</p>
<p>According to the Census Bureau, the <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-estimates-characteristics.html">median age in America</a> is 38.9 years old. But with the <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47470">average ages in the House and Senate</a> at 58 and 64, respectively, a word often used to describe the nation’s governing class is “gerontocracy.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/what-is-a-gerontocracy">Teen Vogue</a>, which recently published a story explaining the word to younger voters, defines the term as “government by the elderly.” Gerontocracies are more common among religious leadership such as <a href="https://www.ncronline.org/blogs/francis-chronicles/no-church-old-men-cardinals-called-be-grandfathers-pope-says">the Vatican</a> or <a href="https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1313938/irans-fossilized-gerontocracy-faces-the-youth-in-the-street.html">the ayatollahs</a> in Iran. They were also common in communist ruling committees such as the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/soviet-gerontocracy-collapse-cautionary-tale-united-states-2022-9">Soviet Politburo</a> during the Cold War. In democracies, elderly leaders are less common.</p>
<h2>Beyond the White House</h2>
<p>Biden and Trump aren’t the only aging leaders in the U.S. It’s a bipartisan trend: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, is 72, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, is 81. Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley was just reelected and has turned 90, with no plans to retire. Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders is 81 and hasn’t mentioned retirement at all.</p>
<p>In the House, California Democrat and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, at age 83, just announced she’s running for reelection for her <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-speaker-pelosi-seek-re-election-reversing-earlier-plan-2022-01-25/">19th full term in office</a>. Bill Pascrell Jr., a New Jersey Democrat, and Eleanor Holmes Norton, a Democrat who serves as the nonvoting delegate from Washington, D.C., are both 86. Kentucky Republican Harold Rogers and California Democrat Maxine Waters are both 85. Maryland Democrat Steny Hoyer is 84. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/us/politics/oldest-members-of-congress.html">list goes on</a>, and none of these politicians has indicated they’re retiring. </p>
<p>A local pharmacist on Capitol Hill made headlines a few years ago when he revealed that he was <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/11/16458142/congress-alzheimers-pharmacist">filling Alzheimer’s medication prescriptions</a> for members of Congress. Every one of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/us/politics/oldest-members-of-congress.html">20 oldest members of Congress</a> is at least 80, and this is the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/118th-congress-age-third-oldest-1789-rcna64117">third-oldest House and Senate since 1789</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man stands at a lectern with other people around him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">In July 2023, Sen. Mitch McConnell appeared to freeze while speaking with the media, raising questions about his age and health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-john-barrasso-reaches-out-to-help-senate-minority-news-photo/1556768368">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Delayed retirement</h2>
<p>What’s going on here? </p>
<p>Most baby boomers who delay retirement do so because they <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/032216/are-we-baby-boomer-retirement-crisis.asp">can’t afford</a> to stop working, due to inflation or lack of savings. But all of these political leaders have plenty of money in the bank – <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/04/majority-of-lawmakers-millionaires/">many are millionaires</a>. If they retired, they would enjoy <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30631">government pensions</a> and <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30064">health care benefits</a> in addition to Medicare. So for them, it’s not likely financial.</p>
<p>One theory is that it’s denial. No one likes to be reminded of their own mortality. I know people who equate retirement with death, often because of others they know who have passed away just after stepping down — which may explain why both <a href="https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/senator-dianne-feinstein-death/h_ad846d97416acf1e8bbaf2373d6205ab">Sen. Dianne Feinstein</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/ruth-bader-ginsburg-dies/2020/09/18/3cedc314-fa08-11ea-a275-1a2c2d36e1f1_story.html">Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg</a> stayed so long on the job, dying while still in office at age 90 and 87, respectively.</p>
<p>For others, it’s identity-driven. Many of the senior leaders I’ve seen have worked so hard for so long that their entire identity is tied to their jobs. Plus, years of hard work means they don’t have hobbies to enjoy in their remaining years. </p>
<p>Another theory is ego. Some lawmakers think they’re indispensable – that they’re the only ones who can possibly do the job. They’re not exactly humble.</p>
<p>In the political world, their interest is often about power as well. These are the types who think: Why wouldn’t I want to keep casting deciding votes in a closely divided House or Senate, or keep giving speeches and flying around on Air Force One as president, or telling myself I’m saving democracy? </p>
<p>It’s easy to see why so few of them want to walk away.</p>
<h2>Age limits?</h2>
<p>There have been calls to impose age limits for federal elected office. After all, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/jmd/page/file/1446196/download">federal law enforcement officers</a> have mandatory retirement at 57. So do <a href="https://www.nps.gov/aboutus/become-a-law-enforcement-ranger.htm">national park rangers</a>. Yet the most stressful job in the world has no upper age limit.</p>
<p>For those who think mandatory retirement is ageist and arbitrary, there are other options: Republican candidate Nikki Haley has called for <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3859468-haley-calls-for-mental-competency-tests-for-politicians-over-75/">compulsory mental competency tests</a> for elected leaders who are 75 and older, though she has said <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/time-competency-test-politicians-heres-why">passing wouldn’t be a required qualification for office</a>, and failing wouldn’t be cause for removal. A September 2023 poll shows <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4192393-mental-competency-tests-for-politicians-over-75-see-overwhelming-support-in-new-poll/">huge majorities of Americans support competency testing</a>. That way, the public would know who was sharp and who was not. Sounds like a fine idea to me.</p>
<p>So does having the generosity to step aside and think of others. And having the wisdom to realize that life is short and about more than just going to work. And having the grace to do what John F. Kennedy, the nation’s second-youngest president, once said: to <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/president-john-f-kennedys-inaugural-address">pass the torch to a new generation of Americans</a>.</p>
<p>My colleague professor Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/19/us-congress-presidency-gerontocracy">puts it well</a>: “I’m 70, so I have great sympathy for these people: 80 is looking a lot younger than it used to, as far as I’m concerned. But no, it’s ridiculous. We’ve got to get back to electing people in their 50s and early 60s.” And the <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4233885-more-in-new-poll-likely-to-see-biden-as-too-old-than-trump/">polling shows</a> that most Americans would say, “Amen, brother.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary Kate Cary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many years beyond the average American retirement age, politicians vie for power and influence. Their constituents tend to prefer they step back and pass the torch to younger people.Mary Kate Cary, Adjunct Professor of Politics and Director of Think Again, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166082023-10-31T12:35:11Z2023-10-31T12:35:11Z3 reasons the House GOP is not any more dysfunctional than the Democrats − even after the prolonged speaker chaos<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556691/original/file-20231030-15-k38a3a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C9%2C6299%2C4196&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tabulating votes during one of the many ballots held by House Republicans to choose a speaker.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressSpeaker/ff27ba6e7c3444ca9fb9ec68dd187473/photo?Query=speaker%20vote%20House%20GOP&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=430&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For many observers, a key takeaway from the recent leadership struggle in the U.S. House is that Democrats <a href="https://theweek.com/politics/the-big-winner-of-the-gop-speaker-mess-might-be-hakeem-jeffries">skillfully manage</a> their caucus while Republicans are <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-10-24/editorial-the-gop-is-broken-and-the-nation-is-paying-the-price-in-speaker-turmoil">uniquely</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/21/jim-jordan-house-speaker-republicans-dysfunction">dysfunctional</a>.</p>
<p>This claim is based in large part on a <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/10/27/whip-it-good-not-exactly-say-democrats-who-watched-gop-speaker-fight/">comparison</a> <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/kevin-mccarthy-republican-nancy-pelosi-speaker-emirita-rcna119495">between</a> Republicans’ perceived disloyalty in removing their speaker, Kevin McCarthy, during the current Congress and Democrats’ apparent loyalty toward their speaker, Nancy Pelosi, in previous Congresses.</p>
<p>At first glance, this seems to be a fair comparison. Both parties have dissident – or anti-establishment – factions that sometimes chafe at the compromises made by their leaders. They include “the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/11/740721823/pelosi-clashes-with-progressive-squad-as-internal-party-tensions-get-personal">Squad</a>” for Democrats and the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/28/house-freedom-caucus-mccarthy-shutdown-letter">Freedom Caucus</a> for Republicans. </p>
<p>And both parties have <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/05/narrow-majorities-in-u-s-house-have-become-more-common-but-havent-always-led-to-gridlock/">lately held narrow majorities</a> when in power, which gives potential leverage to these factions. </p>
<p>So why do Republicans seem to be having a harder time with these similar circumstances than do Democrats? Is it the relative skill of their respective leaders? Are Republicans simply more dysfunctional?</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Jks9RasAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of Congress, political parties and elections</a>. And I would argue that, other than possible differences in leadership skill or caucus dysfunction, there are three important factors that can help explain the observed differences in outcomes for the two parties:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired women in a purple jacket shakes the hand of a white-haired man in a suit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556695/original/file-20231030-19-4o3yn9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, left, had a tight grip on her Democratic caucus, since they both wanted to pass the agenda of Democratic President Joe Biden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-shakes-hands-with-speaker-of-the-house-news-photo/1375645589?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. The motion-to-vacate rule</h2>
<p>When she regained the speakership in 2019, Pelosi perceived that she might face the same sort of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sixteen-democrats-sign-letter-opposing-pelosi-speaker-n938066">internal party threats</a> to remove her as McCarthy eventually did four years later. </p>
<p>This is why she <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/02/681547346/democrats-announce-major-changes-to-u-s-house-rules">changed the House rules</a> to increase the threshold of support that was required to bring a formal motion to vacate the speakership, which stood then at a single lawmaker. The revised rule required the support of a majority of either party’s caucus in order to force a vote. This rule helped Pelosi keep her speakership secure even in the face of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/04/15/nancy-pelosi-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-481704">internal party divisions</a> similar to those on the other side of the aisle.</p>
<p>That rule would have saved McCarthy. However, he <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64194129">negotiated it away</a> during his effort to become speaker, so that once again it took only one lawmaker to force a vote that could end up bringing down the speaker. </p>
<p>You could argue that reverting to the single-lawmaker rule is simply another example of inferior strategic thinking by GOP leadership. But I believe it is possible that no Republican candidate could have avoided making this concession. After all, McCarthy first tried offering only a partial change – agreeing to lower the threshold <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mccarthy-motion-to-vacate-rule-speaker/">down to five</a> – but still could not secure the votes he needed until finally agreeing to a threshold of one. </p>
<h2>2. Which party is in the White House</h2>
<p>During the previous Congress, the House majority – Democrats – was from the same party as the sitting president, Joe Biden. The members of the president’s party in the House knew that if the chamber got sidetracked with a speakership fight, their president’s agenda would also be sidetracked. </p>
<p>In turn, this could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S002238160808">diminish the president’s public approval ratings</a>. </p>
<p>Since Biden is the public face of the Democratic party, when his approval dips, this <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111273">harms the relative electoral prospects</a> of all candidates running for reelection under his party’s label. So, Democrats had an incentive to cooperate, for fear of losing their own seats and their party’s majority in Congress.</p>
<p>In contrast, during the current Congress, the Republican majority faces a president from the opposite party. This circumstance can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381608080961">create an incentive</a> for the majority party to prevent the president from achieving legislative successes. Poor ratings for Biden could help Republicans running for reelection. In this context, a speakership fight that sidetracks legislation makes more sense from the party’s perspective: It could even help the party in the next election.</p>
<h2>3. Ideology</h2>
<p>Finally, dissidents in the Republican Party have greater leverage than their Democratic counterparts based on their ideas about policy and governing. </p>
<p>Democrats generally agree that a functioning government is needed to help <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/great-depression-and-world-war-ii-1929-1945/franklin-delano-roosevelt-and-the-new-deal/">solve societal problems</a>. So, dissident factions in the Democratic Party are typically unwilling to shut down government operations indefinitely in order to extract concessions from their leadership.</p>
<p>In contrast, Republicans are more likely to believe, as President Reagan <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IlcDvXaUCw">famously stated</a>, that “government IS the problem.” This means that dissident factions in the Republican Party can much more credibly threaten to indefinitely <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/21/government-shutdown-latest-spending-vote-mccarthy-republicans">halt government operations</a> – doing so does not conflict as much with their policy goals. In turn, the fact that they have less incentive to drop their obstruction gives them more leverage over their party’s leadership.</p>
<h2>It’s more complicated than you think</h2>
<p>Would Republicans have moved to vacate the speakership if Donald Trump were in the White House and eager to pass his conservative legislative agenda? Would Pelosi have survived without changing the rules? </p>
<p>You can never know the answers to these questions for certain. But thinking about these hypothetical situations helps illustrate that political context matters. How members of a party will behave in a given situation is affected by many factors, including congressional rules, election pressures and policy preferences. Sometimes, these factors simply align in a way that makes it hard to be the speaker.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216608/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David R. Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the wake of the three-week internal GOP battle to choose a speaker, a scholar of Congress says that what looks like dysfunction is actually something else.David R. Jones, Professor of Political Science, Baruch College, CUNYLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1986492023-03-22T16:58:08Z2023-03-22T16:58:08ZIn Congress, breaking unwritten rules that encouraged civility and enabled things to get done is becoming the new normal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516789/original/file-20230321-2490-rwof1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5991%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Speaker Kevin McCarthy at a news conference on Capitol Hill. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/house-minority-leader-kevin-mccarthy-attends-a-house-news-photo/1237859837?phrase=Kevin">Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When House Speaker Kevin McCarthy <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/18/mccarthy-trump-manhattan-da-probe">ordered an investigation</a> into the Manhattan district attorney’s ongoing criminal probe of former President Donald Trump, <a href="https://history.house.gov/Institution/Origins-Development/Investigations-Oversight/">he broke with House practices and norms</a>.</p>
<p>And the three committee chairmen McCarthy tasked with investigating may be stepping outside of federal jurisdiction by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republican-us-house-panels-seek-testimony-manhattan-da-trump-probe-2023-03-20/">attempting to investigate a county prosecutor</a>.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=sarah+burns+rochester+institute+of+technology&oq=Sarah+Burns">a scholar of the legislative branch</a>, I study how its practices and procedures have changed over time. This move is just one in a growing list of norm-breaking events that have colored how the House, during the 118th Congress, conducts business.</p>
<p>When McCarthy <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kevin-mccarthy-regrets-giving-tucker-carlson-jan-6/story?id=97697384">gave government-owned footage of the Jan. 6th insurrection</a> to a single media outlet, he broke a long-standing congressional norm of releasing government information to media outlets broadly.</p>
<p>When multiple, unrepentent Republican representatives <a href="https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=state++of+the+union+margery+taylor+green&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:65b377db,vid:XDEZ1Rj8b0E">heckled Democratic President Joe Biden</a> during his February 2023 State of the Union address, they broke behavioral norms for the occasion. The last person who <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/sep/10/you-lie-joe-wilson-obama-speech">heckled a sitting president during the State of the Union</a> was Rep. Joe Wilson, of South Carolina, in 2009 when President Obama addressed a joint session of Congress. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/obama-accepts-wilsons-outburst-apology/story?id=8538361">Wilson apologized</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516794/original/file-20230321-2166-900ljs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A standing woman, in a white coat with fur around the collar, makes a thumbs down gesture as seated people surrounded her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516794/original/file-20230321-2166-900ljs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516794/original/file-20230321-2166-900ljs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516794/original/file-20230321-2166-900ljs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516794/original/file-20230321-2166-900ljs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516794/original/file-20230321-2166-900ljs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516794/original/file-20230321-2166-900ljs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516794/original/file-20230321-2166-900ljs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and other Republican members of Congress react during President Joe Biden’s 2023 State of the Union address.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/representative-marjorie-taylor-greene-and-republican-news-photo/1246876969?adppopup=true">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>118th Congress broke norms from the start</h2>
<p>Even before this session of Congress began in January 2023, Republicans members of the House broke a norm by <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/3803284-kevin-mccarthy-secures-speakership-after-historic-floor-battle/">forcing 15 ballots over four days</a> before voting to make McCarthy speaker. The last Speaker vote that required multiple ballots was in 1923 when it took nine.</p>
<p>But when McCarthy <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/mccarthy-democrats-schiff-swalwell-intelligence-committee/index.html">denied seats on the House Intelligence Committee</a> to Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, who once chaired the committee, and Eric Swalwell, both of California, he went much further. Historically, both parties <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/mccarthy-democrats-schiff-swalwell-intelligence-committee/index.html">have tended to avoid politicizing</a> national security. Removing members with the kind of institutional knowledge Schiff and Swalwell possess <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3835340-democrat-says-booting-schiff-swalwell-from-intel-committee-hurts-our-national-security/">could have serious consequences</a> for the effective operation of the committee. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3841142-house-republicans-vote-to-remove-omar-from-foreign-affairs-panel/">House also voted to remove Rep. Ilhan Omar</a>, another Democrat, from the House’s Foreign Affairs Committee.</p>
<p>In the House, Republican and Democratic leadership are traditionally in control of which members they submit for committee assignments. Despite this norm, McCarthy refused to allow Schiff or Swalwell a seat on the Intelligence Committee after Minority Leader <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/mccarthy-democrats-schiff-swalwell-intelligence-committee/index.html">Hakeem Jeffries put their names forward</a>.</p>
<p>Accusing <a href="https://twitter.com/SpeakerMcCarthy/status/1618047779422769154?s=20&t=d-aUU6NhKX5LawVEJvU2nA">Reps. Swalwell and Schiff</a> of misusing the panel during the previous two Congresses, McCarthy said he was denying the two representatives seats on the committee for national security reasons. And he forced a floor vote to oust Omar for <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/02/11/693480995/house-democrats-urge-party-leaders-to-condemn-antisemitism">her antisemitic comments</a>, even though she apologized. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516796/original/file-20230321-14-yyjr7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Standing before a podium, a woman speaks as two men, with their hands clasped, watch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516796/original/file-20230321-14-yyjr7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516796/original/file-20230321-14-yyjr7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516796/original/file-20230321-14-yyjr7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516796/original/file-20230321-14-yyjr7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516796/original/file-20230321-14-yyjr7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516796/original/file-20230321-14-yyjr7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516796/original/file-20230321-14-yyjr7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Reps. Ilhan Omar (center), Eric Swalwell (left) and Adam Schiff speak at a press conference about congressional committee assignments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rep-ilhan-omar-joined-by-rep-eric-swalwell-and-rep-adam-news-photo/1459406501?adppopup=true">Kevin Dietsch via Getty Images News</a></span>
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<p>House Democrats maintain McCarthy’s move was <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/589049-mccarthy-says-hell-strip-dems-of-committee-slots-if-gop-wins-house/">political payback</a> because the House, under former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, had voted to remove <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/04/politics/house-vote-marjorie-taylor-greene-committee-assignments/index.html">Republican Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene</a> and <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2021-11-17/paul-gosar-censured-removed-from-committees-over-violent-post-about-democrats">Paul Gosar from their committees </a> over incendiary comments the two made. Some of their remarks <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html">included threats of violence</a> against members of the House. </p>
<p>That was not the first time Pelosi denied the Republican minority leader his choice of committee appointments. During the 117th Congress, when she and House Democratic leadership were populating the Jan. 6 committee to investigate the Capitol insurrection, McCarthy wanted to seat two known Trump loyalists: Reps. Jim Banks of Indiana and Jim Jordan of Ohio. <a href="https://news.wttw.com/2021/07/21/pelosi-bars-trump-allies-jan-6-probe-gop-vows-boycott">Pelosi rejected them</a>. </p>
<h2>When norms are ignored</h2>
<p>Traditionally, if a member of Congress committed an offense that did not rise to the level of an ethics investigation, their leadership would decide how to punish them. That was the case in 2019, when then-Minority Leader <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/steve-king-white-supremacy.html">McCarthy stripped now former Iowa Rep.</a> Steven King of his committee assignments, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/15/us/politics/steve-king-offensive-quotes.html">citing King’s racist comments</a>.</p>
<p>But McCarthy did not punish Greene – Pelosi did. </p>
<p>At the time, Republicans warned Pelosi <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-votes-to-remove-gop-rep-greene-from-committees/">she was setting a precedent</a> – or new norm – of the majority party in the House determining committee assignments for the minority party.</p>
<p>“If this is the new standard, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-house-vote-465855">I look forward to continuing out the standard</a>,” McCarthy said.</p>
<p>The norms of governance in the House provide stability and clarity regarding what type of behavior is and is not allowed among members. But when those norms are broken, a series of devolving consequences can follow.</p>
<h2>Partisan fights pay</h2>
<p>Republican members of Congress attacking Democrats and Democratic members of Congress attacking Republicans has long been a way for elected officials to grab voters’ attention. But the divisive rhetoric and <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/01/18/what-happens-when-democracies-become-perniciously-polarized-pub-86190">deeply partisan behavior</a> of officeholders over the past few decades has only pushed the two parties farther apart, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/">particularly during the 2000s</a>.</p>
<p>During that period, it became clear that politicians who whipped up their bases by using the politics of outrage <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2014/05/08/310795987/latest-partisan-flashpoint-gop-benghazi-fundraising">could score political points and replenish their political coffers</a> at the same time. That realization has changed the political calculus. </p>
<p>Today, donors reward shocking behavior. Sen. Josh Hawley, of Missouri, for example, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/12/josh-hawley-fundraising-480920">raised US$3 million </a> after he voted to block the presidential election results on Jan. 6, 2021.</p>
<p>Greene raised $3.2 million after only three months in office when news broke that she embraced conspiracy theories and previously <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/07/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-fundraising-haul/index.html">threatened violence against Democratic politicians</a>. Perhaps seeking similar results, when McCarthy kicked Schiff off the House Intelligence Committee, Schiff went on TikTok to <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/schiff-tiktok-removal-intel-committee">announce his candidacy</a> for the Senate. </p>
<p>Whether this extreme behavior by elected officials is motivated by political one-upmanship or money, or both, Americans are watching, and many don’t approve of the behavior. A February Gallup Poll has <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx">approval of Congress hovering around 18%</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198649/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Burns receives funding from the Institute for Humane Studies and she is a non-resident fellow at The Quincy Institute. </span></em></p>The House of Representatives is breaking norms and establishing a new way for the body to do business.Sarah Burns, Associate Professor of Political Science, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1936822023-01-05T17:50:09Z2023-01-05T17:50:09ZThe lack of RCMP protection officers is a risk to Canada’s national security<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502844/original/file-20230102-12-ppbb83.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C4005&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during a news conference as a member of his RCMP security detail stands by on Bowen Island, B.C., in July 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-lack-of-rcmp-protection-officers-is-a-risk-to-canada-s-national-security" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Near the end of 2022, it was reported that the <a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/1927871/rcmp-running-short-of-officers-to-protect-cabinet-ministers-from-a-growing-number-of-threats">RCMP faces a severe shortage of police officers</a> to protect federal ministers, diplomats and other government officials. </p>
<p>This staff shortage is occurring at a time when <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9227522/justin-trudeau-public-figures-threats/">threats against Canadian politicians</a> appear to be at an all-time high. During testimony at last fall’s Emergencies Act inquiry, it was revealed that Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland received <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freedom-convoy-chris-barber-power-struggle-1.6636737">an emailed death threat against her</a> from a supporter of the so-called freedom convoy that descended upon Ottawa in February 2022.</p>
<p>The inquiry also learned that a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-security-schedule-leaked-1.6639111">former member of Justin Trudeau’s RCMP protection team may have leaked the prime minister’s schedule in advance to protest organizers</a>. </p>
<p>These threats and vulnerabilities pose a serious risk to Canada’s national security. It will require political will, resources and policy changes to tackle the issue.</p>
<h2>Threats increasing</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canadian-politicians-should-have-better-security-and-the-public-should/">Threats against public officials of all political stripes</a> are dramatically on the rise amid the current political climate. </p>
<p>According to data from the United States Capitol Police, threats against members of Congress <a href="https://www.uscp.gov/media-center/press-releases/uscp-response-oig-report-3">increased by 107 per cent from 2020 to 2021</a>. An example of this trend was the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/man-arrested-attack-us-house-speaker-pelosis-spouse-faces-charges-2022-10-29/">attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband</a> inside their San Francisco residence in October 2022. </p>
<p>Canadian politicians have also been victims of similar attacks, including when <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/political-message-behind-armed-soldiers-attack-on-trudeaus-home-requires-stern-punishment-court-told">an armed, serving member of the Canadian military rammed his truck</a> through the gates of Trudeau’s Ottawa residence in July 2020. </p>
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<img alt="A police officer and a police dog examine a pickup truck seen behind a large tree." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502829/original/file-20230102-24-5tcaos.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502829/original/file-20230102-24-5tcaos.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502829/original/file-20230102-24-5tcaos.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502829/original/file-20230102-24-5tcaos.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502829/original/file-20230102-24-5tcaos.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502829/original/file-20230102-24-5tcaos.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502829/original/file-20230102-24-5tcaos.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An RCMP officer works with a police dog as they move through the contents of a pickup truck on the grounds of Rideau Hall in Ottawa in July 2020 after a man threatened Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
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<p>Provincial public officials aren’t immune to the recent dramatic increase in threats, harassment and intimidation. In Québec, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9131146/quebec-election-crown-prosecutors-threats-consequences/">sentences ranging from probation to prison time</a> have been handed out to those who have engaged in such criminal behaviour.</p>
<p>What motivates those who threaten and wish to inflict harm on political figures varies across a wide spectrum. In the case of the Trudeau attack, the perpetrator had posted QAnon theories on social media, suggesting <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/13/qanon-canada-trudeau-conspiracy-theory/">right-wing extremist views</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/right-wing-extremism-the-new-wave-of-global-terrorism-147975">Right-wing extremism: The new wave of global terrorism</a>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502839/original/file-20230102-20-nuc346.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired woman in a bright pink jacket speaks into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502839/original/file-20230102-20-nuc346.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502839/original/file-20230102-20-nuc346.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502839/original/file-20230102-20-nuc346.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502839/original/file-20230102-20-nuc346.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502839/original/file-20230102-20-nuc346.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502839/original/file-20230102-20-nuc346.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502839/original/file-20230102-20-nuc346.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer speaks on election night on Nov. 8, 2022, in Detroit. Several men have pleaded guilty or been convicted of plotting to kidnap the Democrat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)</span></span>
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<p>Recent research on politicians in the United Kingdom revealed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.13070">women receive significantly more threats</a> and acts of intimidation from members of the public than their male counterparts. This would suggest the perpetrators likely hold sexist or misogynistic viewpoints.</p>
<p>Other research suggests the vast majority of people wanting to target elected officials suffer from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1192/bja.2017.22">mental illness</a> and will often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0025802419861168">exhibit warning behaviours</a> in advance of their intention to harm.</p>
<h2>Public officials are vulnerable</h2>
<p>So what does the lack of <a href="https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/protective-operations">protection officers</a> within the RCMP mean for Canada’s national security? </p>
<p>Firstly, <a href="https://canadatoday.news/qc/the-rcmp-is-running-low-on-officers-to-protect-cabinet-ministers-from-a-growing-array-of-threats-48257/">leaving federal cabinet ministers, diplomats, high-ranking government officials and Supreme Court justices unprotected</a> leaves them vulnerable to physical attacks and possible assassinations. </p>
<p>In the event of such incidents, the confidence of Canadians in their government to protect them from domestic and foreign threats would be severely eroded. It would also signal that the government as a whole is weak and at risk of being attacked for any public grievance. </p>
<p>Secondly, foreign adversaries could benefit from opportunities that arise from the disruption and uncertainties that inevitably occur in the aftermath of such attacks.</p>
<p>This is how national security systems can be exploited for political and economic advantages. </p>
<p>It has been widely reported that <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-for-canada-to-tackle-chinese-interference-after-the-trudeau-xi-showdown-194778">China has been targeting Canadian elected officials</a> and trying to influence our democratic institutions. The physical presence of protection officers around our officials could also act as a deterrent against efforts to gain access to public officials, intelligence and highly confidential state secrets.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-for-canada-to-tackle-chinese-interference-after-the-trudeau-xi-showdown-194778">5 ways for Canada to tackle Chinese interference after the Trudeau-Xi showdown</a>
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<p>The easiest solution to the protection gap would be for parliamentarians to give the RCMP the necessary support and financial resources, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rcmp-close-protection-unit-shortage-cabinet-prime-minister-threats-1.6629092">something the federal cabinet is planning to study in the coming months</a>.</p>
<h2>Private contractors a solution?</h2>
<p>But throwing money at a structural problem will not solve the issues in the short term. <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/rcmp-vacancy-rates-at-20-per-cent-in-b-c-because-positions-not-filled-officers-on-leave">RCMP attrition is outpacing recruitment</a> and it takes time to train new protection officers. </p>
<p>A possible solution in both the short and long term is outsourcing protection for some public officials, like judges and high-ranking public servants, to the private sector.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502845/original/file-20230102-19747-lmgw4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman is reflected in a man's sunglasses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502845/original/file-20230102-19747-lmgw4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502845/original/file-20230102-19747-lmgw4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502845/original/file-20230102-19747-lmgw4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502845/original/file-20230102-19747-lmgw4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502845/original/file-20230102-19747-lmgw4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502845/original/file-20230102-19747-lmgw4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502845/original/file-20230102-19747-lmgw4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Andrea Horwath, then the leader of the NDP, is reflected in the sunglasses of her Ontario Provincial Police security detail during a campaign event in June 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
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<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-will-harry-and-meghans-security-cost-when-the-government-stops-paying-131772">Many top CEOs and high net-worth individuals now have protection officers</a> who are often former police and military members. As such, they could easily pass government security background checks and already possess many of the necessary skills to do the job. </p>
<p>Private security organizations <a href="https://afimacglobal.com/">like AFIMAC</a> provide protection specialists to organizations. AFIMAC, in fact, has already <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5403321/toronto-raptors-parade-route-plan/">supported the RCMP during major events</a> when additional resources are required or when security risks are heightened. </p>
<p>The use of private sector contractors would also be cheaper over the long term given the pensions and benefits required to compensate RCMP officers. </p>
<p>Whatever the federal cabinet decides, it’s clear the status quo is untenable for Canada’s national security. The protection of public figures is an increasingly essential requirement within our polarized political environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193682/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Spence does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The status quo in terms of Canada’s protection of public officials is untenable and poses a serious risk to the country’s national security.Sean Spence, Doctorate Student in Security Risk Management, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1962552022-12-14T16:40:02Z2022-12-14T16:40:02ZTrump backers are lining up to block Republican frontrunner for new House speaker<p>When the 118th United States Congress convenes on January 3 2023, the first <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/how-will-us-house-representatives-choose-new-speaker-2022-11-17/">order of business</a> for the House of Representatives is to elect a new speaker.</p>
<p>The current frontrunner for this powerful position is California Republican <a href="https://www.congress.gov/member/kevin-mccarthy/M001165">Kevin McCarthy</a>. But McCarthy’s path to the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/01/friends-critics-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-00071489">speakership</a> is not guaranteed, and could be sabotaged from within his own Republican caucus.</p>
<p>In November’s <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/house-results">midterms</a>, Republicans won control of the House with 222 seats to the Democrats’ 213. Nancy Pelosi, the first female speaker of the House who served from 2007 to 2011 and then again from 2019, will step down in January. <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/RL30857.pdf">Typically</a>, the party which has the majority in the House chooses its leading figure to become speaker.</p>
<p><a href="https://history.house.gov/People/Detail/18801">McCarthy</a>, 57, has been a California congressman since 2007, becoming House Republican leader in 2019 and has coveted the House speakership for some time. </p>
<p>As he launches his bid, McCarthy is encountering opposition from members of the “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/house-republicans-brace-leadership-struggle-democrats-tap-pelosi-heir-2022-12-01/">Freedom Caucus</a>” – a group of ultra-conservative House members. This <a href="https://rollcall.com/2022/11/15/mccarthy-backed-for-speaker-but-has-work-to-do-before-january/">resistance</a> was made plain when an internal Republican leadership ballot was held. McCarthy won <a href="https://apnews.com/article/kevin-mccarthy-nancy-pelosi-congress-government-and-politics-dc947aadd41de192e4d1f018d0eaf193">188 votes</a>, with Arizona representative Andy Biggs securing the backing of 31 anti-McCarthy Republicans.</p>
<p>McCarthy’s dilemma is that it could take only five defections from within his own party to fatally damage his speakership ambitions – and <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/11/30/the-democrats-muster-an-orderly-leadership-succession">five Republicans</a> have already made clear they will not vote for him. </p>
<p>It is becoming increasingly likely that McCarthy will <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/mccarthys-struggle-to-lock-down-house-speaker-roils-gop-caucus-delays-key-committee-assignments.html">fall short</a> in the first ballot. This means the contest will run for <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/09/politics/mccarthy-speaker-house-republicans-218/index.html">multiple rounds</a> – something that has not occurred since 1923 – and he will need to <a href="https://history.house.gov/People/Office/Speakers-Intro/">pick up votes or withdraw</a>. Voting rounds go on until the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/house-speaker-kevin-mccarthy-votes/">majority is reached</a>. </p>
<p>McCarthy is currently <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/heres-what-mccarthy-faces-as-he-looks-to-become-the-next-house-speaker">striking deals</a> with, and making commitments to, extreme right-wing members of Congress. This has already involved promising to remove high-profile Democrats from committee roles as well as restoring Congresswoman <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/magazine/marjorie-taylor-greene.html">Marjorie Taylor Greene</a>, a 2020 election denier, to her previous <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/heres-what-mccarthy-faces-as-he-looks-to-become-the-next-house-speaker">committee assignments</a>. This has banked Greene’s <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/midterm-elections-congress-house-results/card/marjorie-taylor-greene-backs-kevin-mccarthy-for-house-speaker-r0Gwt5eZy2QmqL9gXWnT">endorsement</a>.</p>
<p>McCarthy is also offering to alter House procedural rules to empower backbench Republicans, as well as supporting an <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/02/politics/mccarthy-house-speaker-fight-gop/index.html">impeachment inquiry</a> of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, a Democrat in Joe Biden’s cabinet.</p>
<p>Some undecided House Republicans have demanded that McCarthy make it permissible to force a vote on motions to “<a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/09/right-wing-demand-list-further-complicates-mccarthys-speaker-bid">vacate the chair</a>” – in effect, to remove the sitting speaker. This would make the next Congress very unstable for any speaker.</p>
<p>Even if McCarthy manages to get to 218 votes, his speakership will be challenging. If he wavers on the demands of the extreme right-wing, or offers criticism of Donald Trump, then McCarthy could find his <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/17/donald-trump-kevin-mccarthy-republicans-house-of-representatives">tenure</a> very short.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-republican-bubble-how-pollsters-and-pundits-got-the-us-midterms-so-wrong-194684">A Republican bubble? How pollsters and pundits got the US midterms so wrong</a>
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<p>In early December the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/29/mccarthy-house-speaker-republicans-opposed/">Washington Post</a> identified the Republican congressmen planning to vote against McCarthy as Andy Biggs, Matt Gaetz, Bob Good and Ralph Norman, plus a “very likely no” in Matthew M. Rosendale. These men represent Republicans who are angry that a “red wave” of victories did not take place in the midterms and blame McCarthy. Florida Congressman Gaetz has labelled McCarthy “<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/matt-gaetz-mocks-gop-congress-leadership-with-mcfailure-tweet-2022-11?r=US&IR=T">McFailure</a>”. </p>
<h2>Who is the competition?</h2>
<p>Congressman <a href="https://bioguide.congress.gov/search/bio/B001302">Biggs</a>, 64, has announced his intention to <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/andy-biggs-running-for-speaker/index.html">challenge</a> McCarthy for speaker. He is a conservative firebrand and fiercely loyal to Donald Trump.</p>
<p>Biggs denounced McCarthy as being part of the Washington “establishment”, stating his campaign is an opportunity to “<a href="https://dailycaller.com/2022/12/06/opinion-im-running-to-replace-kevin-mccarthy-as-house-speaker-and-break-the-establishment-rep-andy-biggs/">reinvigorate</a> the America First movement” founded by Trump. Biggs drew national attention for his <a href="https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2022/11/15/rep-andy-biggs-vies-house-speaker-gop-regroups-after-midterms/10704317002/">involvement</a> in Washington and Arizona to overturn the 2020 presidential election results in Trump’s favour. </p>
<p>Those seeking to become speaker must secure an <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R44243.pdf">absolute majority</a> of assembled members. The vote will take place on the floor of the House by the 435-member body, with 218 votes needed. The US constitution gives the House <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-legislative-branch/">exclusive powers</a>, such as to initiate <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origination_Clause">revenue bills</a>. The speaker is therefore a <a href="https://history.house.gov/People/Office/Speakers-Intro/">pivotal player</a> within the federal government (and also third in succession to the presidency).</p>
<p>This person holds huge sway over the legislative process, controlling the <a href="https://rules.house.gov/about">House rules committee</a> which structures debates to advance or kill-off bills that may be presidential priorities. The speaker, as politics professor <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.12987/9780300153194/html">Matthew Green explains</a>, balances legislative, institutional and partisan agendas in ways few other representatives can do.</p>
<h2>Push to the hard right</h2>
<p>Regardless of who gets to wield the speaker’s gavel, they will be constrained by the impulses of hard-right Republicans. In showing deference to the Make America Great Again (MAGA) <a href="https://sites.uw.edu/magastudy/">base</a>, the new speaker will be expected to launch <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politics/house-republicans-white-house-hunter-biden/index.html">investigations</a> into the Biden administration, and in particular the president’s son Hunter. This has been a long-term goal of Republican lawmakers, who want to use their <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/house-gop-pushes-forward-with-hunter-biden-probe-despite-thin-majority">subpoena power</a> to question foreign entities connected to messages and financial transactions allegedly found on a laptop belonging to Hunter Biden.</p>
<p>A public endorsement from Trump for either McCarthy or Biggs would be a massive boon for their respective campaigns. Biggs appears as an obvious fit for Trump, having lavished adulation on the former president – something which Trump both demands and thrives on.</p>
<p>The Trump/McCarthy relationship endured a brief split following the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. McCarthy initially <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/13/mccarthy-trump-responsibility-capitol-riot-458975">blamed</a> the former president for inciting the insurrection but made a quick volte-face, positioning himself since as a staunch defender of Trump.</p>
<p>Salvaging McCarthy’s quest to become speaker could be viewed by Trump as <a href="https://time.com/6236249/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-bid-challenges/">useful</a> as he launches his third bid for the White House – as would having a grateful ally at the epicentre of political power in Washington.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196255/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Hargy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The hard-right of the Republican Party is exerting pressures on candidates to be the next speaker of the House.Richard Hargy, Senior Teacher / PhD Candidate, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948942022-11-18T12:14:45Z2022-11-18T12:14:45ZNancy Pelosi was the key Democratic messenger of her generation – passing the torch will empower younger leadership<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496096/original/file-20221118-12-4r4lvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C107%2C5964%2C3880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nancy Pelosi's stepping aside will leave the door open for others.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/speaker-of-the-house-nancy-pelosi-is-greeted-by-senate-news-photo/1244855354?phrase=pelosi&adppopup=true">Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The announcement by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that she will not run for another senior post opens the door for a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/17/us/politics/pelosi-jeffries-clark-house-democrats.html">new generation of national leaders in the Democratic Party</a>. </p>
<p>Pelosi confirmed she is <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/video/pelosi-steps-down-from-house-leadership-ends-groundbreaking-era/">stepping away from leadership positions</a> on Nov. 17, 2022, a decision that jump-starts a process that has long been desired by younger Democrats: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/17/pelosi-future-house-republican-majority/">generational change</a> and with it, potentially, new ideas to take the party forward.</p>
<p>That shift to younger leadership was shelved in February 2020. Then – after <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-calendar-isnt-helping-biden-but-his-iowa-performance-points-to-bigger-problems/">poor performances by Joe Biden in early primaries</a> – Democratic primary voters unified with astonishing swiftness behind his candidacy. The thinking was that a veteran party establishment official was needed to block Donald Trump and that the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/04/908524877/how-progressive-democrats-fared-this-primary-season-and-what-it-means">progressive agenda desired by some younger Democrats</a> might pose too great an electoral risk. </p>
<p>Turnover in the youth-challenged leadership of the Democratic House and Senate caucuses has similarly been frozen since then, with all Democratic legislative leaders over 70. As a <a href="https://batten.virginia.edu/people/gerald-warburg">professor of public policy who served as an assistant to members of leadership in both houses of Congress</a>, I understand why Democratic voters opted for stability in 2020. But now the coming change may be welcomed by Democrats and Republicans alike as an opportunity to pass the torch to a new, post-baby boomer generation with fresh ideas. Generational change may soon come on both sides of the political aisle.</p>
<h2>Power as a means, not an end</h2>
<p>Pelosi’s decision is both practical and timely. It comes as the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/16/1133125177/republicans-control-house-of-representatives">Republicans retake the House</a> with a wafer-thin majority and a divided <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/16/house-gop-analysis-congress">GOP caucus at war with itself</a>. Even former Republican speakers John Boehner and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/17/nancy-pelosi-house-speaker/">Newt Gingrich</a>, Pelosi’s longtime critics, are acknowledging her historic accomplishments, while noting her legacy will now include stepping away while at the top of her game.</p>
<p>Pelosi rose to become the most powerful woman in American history and the most effective legislator of the 21st century. She accomplished this at a time when polarization in politics meant she has endured vilification from political opponents that has had a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/david-depape-pleads-not-guilty-federal-charges/index.html">direct and violent impact</a> on her family.</p>
<p>A key to understanding the Pelosi legacy is weighing what she chose to do with her power. As I have <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3674393-pelosi-lawrence-and-the-arc-of-power%EF%BF%BC/">written elsewhere</a>, some politicians seek power fundamentally as a means to an end. For them leadership posts offer the tools needed to improve citizens’ lives or to advance an ideology. Such figures can be seen across the political divide in Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama and Gingrich. You don’t have to agree with their politics to see that they sought power primarily as a means to change policy: They had active legislative agendas.</p>
<p>Other leaders, however, seem to seek out power as part of a never-ending vanity project. </p>
<p>The history of Pelosi’s two four-year speakerships – from 2007 to 2010 and then again from 2019 to 2022 – provide evidence that she had an action agenda. Pelosi is on record repeatedly insisting that when one gains power, one should use it – and risk losing it – to promote the national interest and protect the most vulnerable. </p>
<p>Her record bears out that approach. In 2008 through 2010, she pushed controversial measures through the House, including the <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/data/troubled-assets-relief-program">TARP economic bailout</a>, the stimulus package, the Affordable Care Act, and the cap and trade climate bill – risking her political capital and imperiling the Democratic majority in the House.</p>
<p>Similarly in 2022, she pursued an ambitious legislative agenda despite concerns that it might contribute to a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/23/republican-wave-midterms-congress">Republican “red wave</a>” in the midterm elections. That wave did not materialize, but historically <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-16/republicans-win-control-of-the-us-house-with-narrow-margin">small Republican gains</a> were enough to mean she would lose the speakership of the House.</p>
<h2>Managing imperiled presidencies</h2>
<p>The longevity of Pelosi’s tenure is all the more remarkable given the fact that she worked alongside four different – and often troubled – presidencies. She <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/january-4-2007-nancy-pelosi-becomes-first-woman-elected-speaker-house-representatives/">first became House speaker in 2007</a> under the lame duck presidency of George W. Bush. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A woman in a light jacket stands behind a man in a suit as he waves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1054&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1054&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496055/original/file-20221118-23-g25i8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1054&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nancy Pelosi looks on as President George W. Bush delivers the State of the Union address.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/january-2000-credit-rich-lipski-twp-washington-dc-president-news-photo/104570328?phrase=pelosi&adppopup=true">Rich Lipski/The The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Then she served that role under Obama just before his “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2010/11/03/131046118/obama-humbled-by-election-shellacking">shellacking” in midterm elections</a>; Trump through <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics-features/trump-second-impeachment">two impeachments</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/january-6-us-capitol-attack-128973">an insurrection</a>; then Biden, saddled with bitter national divisions. The Pelosi speakership was the one constant as four different presidents dealt with national threats. </p>
<p>Yet Pelosi managed to work through a deeply polarized Congress scores of bills that impacted the lives of everyday Americans. Her legislative accomplishments include her stewardship of the landmark <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/healthcare/about-the-aca/index.html">Affordable Care Act</a>. She worked with Bush to <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2008/02/20080213-3.html">rescue the American economy</a> in the financial crisis of 2008 – when the Republican caucus refused to provide votes needed to shore up the economy. </p>
<p>She also worked with the reluctant Trump administration to provide <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/27/950133658/trump-signs-covid-19-relief-package-after-threatening-to-derail-it">pandemic relief</a> amid a global health crisis and in early 2022 shepherded through Congress the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">largest infrastructure investment bill</a> ever. </p>
<h2>Toughness leading a divided caucus</h2>
<p>Profiles of Pelosi invariably comment on her toughness, a quality admired by both Obama and <a href="https://www.thewrap.com/boehner-pelosi-republicans/">Boehner</a>. She also led a Democratic caucus often divided by ideology, region, culture, identity politics and generational differences. Some on the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/01/politics/pelosi-progressives-infrastructure-biden-agenda">left suspected her</a> establishment ties. Critics on the right gleefully <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/nancy-pelosi-and-coming-battle-house-leadership/575278/">vilified her as some “San Francisco socialist</a>.”</p>
<p>Even the professorial Obama confessed he sometimes felt <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2010/02/family-feud-pelosi-at-odds-with-obama-032863">hectored by her passionate advocacy</a>. Republicans campaigned repeatedly on the simple pledge to “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/31/pelosi-attack-gop-strategist-condemn/">Fire Pelosi</a>,” spending hundreds of millions on crude ads devoid of a legislative agenda.</p>
<p>One can disagree with her positions, however, while still recognizing that Pelosi has been a fierce and effective advocate advancing her majority’s agenda.</p>
<p>The record shows that her results-oriented approach has been consistent in its goals and clear in its principles. Such clarity has provided leadership to the nation in fractured times. Her singular focus on advancing her caucus’ legislative agenda has made her the key Democratic Party messenger of her generation. </p>
<p>She has now had the courage to step back, making way for a new leaders and new ideas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gerald Warburg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced she will step aside from senior leadership. It could lead to generational change in the Democratic Party.Gerald Warburg, Professor of Practice of Public Policy at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1935972022-11-03T12:13:49Z2022-11-03T12:13:49ZPolitical violence in America isn’t going away anytime soon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493041/original/file-20221102-22-8qlz3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A member of the National Guard patrols the U.S. Capitol on March 4, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/member-of-the-national-guard-patrols-the-grounds-of-the-us-capitol-on-picture-id1231514110?s=612x612">Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/29/1132537240/government-warns-domestic-attacks-midterm-elections">warning</a> about the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/29/23428956/political-attacks-increasing-far-right-congress-pelosi">threat of political violence </a> heading into the 2022 midterm elections was issued to state and local law enforcement officials by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Oct. 28, 2022. </p>
<p>The bulletin was released the same day that Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s husband was hospitalized after a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/paul-pelosi-attack-latest-depape-court">home invasion</a> by a lone right-wing extremist seeking to harm her.</p>
<p>This incident is the latest in an increasing stream of extremist <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/29/pelosi-assault-attacks-threats-political-figures-00064113">confrontations</a> taking place across the United States in recent years. These incidents have primarily targeted Democrats, including a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/17/947652491/6-suspects-indicted-for-conspiracy-to-kidnap-michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer">plot</a> to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2020. But threats from both sides of the political spectrum are up <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/01/us/politics/violent-threats-lawmakers.html">significantly</a>.</p>
<p>And, of course, there was the Jan. 6, 2021, <a href="https://january6th.house.gov/">insurrection</a> at the U.S. Capitol, where supporters of a defeated Republican president, acting on a <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/focus-big-lie-not-big-liar">widespread lie</a> he perpetuated, violently attempted to prevent the certification of electoral votes. According to well-documented public evidence, some rioters planned to find and execute both Speaker Pelosi and Vice President <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/16/us/politics/jan-6-gallows.html">Mike Pence</a>.</p>
<p>Such incidents reflect a disturbing trend that targets the very fabric, foundation and future of U.S. democracy. But what led to this point?</p>
<p>As a researcher taking a critical and apolitical eye toward security issues, I believe the rise in contemporary right-wing political extremism – and violence – began with an outdated focus in national communications policy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493087/original/file-20221102-23-4s8fkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large brick home down the hill from a police tape stretched across the street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493087/original/file-20221102-23-4s8fkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493087/original/file-20221102-23-4s8fkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493087/original/file-20221102-23-4s8fkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493087/original/file-20221102-23-4s8fkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493087/original/file-20221102-23-4s8fkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493087/original/file-20221102-23-4s8fkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493087/original/file-20221102-23-4s8fkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police take measurements around House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco home after her husband, Paul Pelosi, was assaulted inside the home on Oct. 28, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/police-take-measurements-around-speaker-of-the-united-news-photo/1244292841?phrase=pelosi%20home&adppopup=true">Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Media-induced slow burn</h2>
<p>Until the late 1980s, the <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/955/fairness-doctrine">Federal Communications Commission’s Fairness Doctrine</a> required traditional licensed broadcasters to offer competing viewpoints on controversial public issues. But these rules <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/11/28/fact-check-fairness-doctrine-applied-broadcast-licenses-not-cable/6439197002/">did not apply</a> to cable or satellite providers. As a result, the rise of cable news channels in the 1990s led to highly partisan programming that <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-be-too-quick-to-blame-social-media-for-americas-polarization-cable-news-has-a-bigger-effect-study-finds-187579">helped divide</a> American society in the ensuing decades. </p>
<p>This programming fueled increasing polarization in the public and political arenas. Bipartisanship was abandoned in the 1990s, when the Republican Congress under Speaker Newt Gingrich <a href="https://history.princeton.edu/about/publications/burning-down-house-newt-gingrich-fall-speaker-and-rise-new-republican-party">embraced</a> a “scorched-earth” policy of governing. That meant treating the minority party not as the loyal opposition and respected elected colleagues who had differences over policy, but as enemies.</p>
<p>In addition to emerging <a href="https://harvardpolitics.com/organized-polarize-cnn-fox-news-msnbc-roots-partisan-cable-television/">partisan cable television networks like MSNBC and Fox News</a>, in the early 2000s, an increasingly polarized Congress and the public received a new source of division: social media.</p>
<p>Internet platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and 4Chan allowed anyone, anywhere, to create, produce and distribute political commentary and extremist rhetoric that could be amplified by other users and drive the day’s news cycle. </p>
<p>Political pundits and influencers across the spectrum became less concerned about correctly informing the public. Instead, <a href="https://nicd.arizona.edu/blog/2021/06/14/how-the-outrage-industrial-complex-profits-from-stoking-americans-anger-at-each-other/">they stoked outrage</a> in the search for money-generating clicks and advertising dollars. And political parties exploited this outrage to satisfy and energize their voting base or funders. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white woman and man pull back a black curtain to show a voting machine with a big screen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493044/original/file-20221102-24-qix10y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493044/original/file-20221102-24-qix10y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493044/original/file-20221102-24-qix10y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493044/original/file-20221102-24-qix10y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493044/original/file-20221102-24-qix10y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493044/original/file-20221102-24-qix10y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493044/original/file-20221102-24-qix10y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Philadelphia city commissioners display a voting machine in Philadelphia City Hall on Oct. 24, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/philadelphia-city-commissioner-lisa-deeley-and-deputy-comissioner-picture-id1244203987?s=612x612">Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Moderation or censorship?</h2>
<p>To combat online extremism, social media companies reluctantly began <a href="https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/social-media-firms-moderate-content/">moderating user posts</a> and sometimes <a href="https://reason.org/commentary/social-media-companies-have-the-right-to-ban-users/">banned</a> prominent users who violated their community standards or terms of service. </p>
<p>In response to what it dubbed “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/01/social-media-sweeps-the-states-00043229">censorship</a>” from Big Tech, the right wing <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2022/10/06/the-role-of-alternative-social-media-in-the-news-and-information-environment/">splintered</a> into numerous niche platforms catering to their conspiracy theories and extremist or violent views such as Truth Social – run by former President Trump – Gab, Parler, Rumble and others. </p>
<p>Compared with Democrats, Republicans have mastered this form of gutter politics. One example: Right-wing political figures have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/31/donald-trump-jr-misinformation-memes-paul-pelosi-hammer">mocked</a> Paul Pelosi for being attacked, spread <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/31/conservatives-disinformation-paul-pelosi-assault-00064208">baseless conspiracy theories</a> about his personal life and used the incident for applause lines at <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3713080-arizona-governor-candidate-kari-lake-jokes-about-paul-pelosi-attack/">campaign rallies</a>. </p>
<p>Accordingly, today’s voters and politicians end up confronting one another in the public sphere not on matters and substance affecting the future of the country, but on fundamental facts and conspiracy theories, or to address distractions often generated by their respective media ecosystems. This is only exacerbated by a prolonged nationwide decline in <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/education/598795-media-literacy-is-desperately-needed-in-classrooms/">media literacy</a> and <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/legislators-staff/legislators/legislators-back-to-school/tackling-the-american-civics-education-crisis.aspx">civics education</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493083/original/file-20221102-26-22xyb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd of people, some wearing protective helmets, push up against a group of protesters. One of them holds an American flag in the air." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493083/original/file-20221102-26-22xyb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493083/original/file-20221102-26-22xyb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493083/original/file-20221102-26-22xyb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493083/original/file-20221102-26-22xyb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493083/original/file-20221102-26-22xyb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493083/original/file-20221102-26-22xyb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493083/original/file-20221102-26-22xyb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rioters outside the U.S. Capitol Building on Jan. 6, 2021, clash with police.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/supporters-of-us-president-donald-trump-fight-with-riot-police-the-picture-id1230457933?s=612x612">Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Law enforcement’s unique problem</h2>
<p>Against this backdrop, federal law enforcement has become more vocal in warning about the dangers of domestic political extremism, including a <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-february-07-2022">bulletin</a> issued in February 2022. The Oct. 28 DHS bulletin further underscores this concern. </p>
<p>But it’s hard for law enforcement to effectively address political extremism, because speech protected under the <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-1/">First Amendment</a> is a major consideration. Phrases like “I’m fighting for you!” or “Saving our country!” might seem like typical political bluster to one person. But they could be seen by others as an implied call for intimidation or violent action against political opponents, election officials, volunteer poll workers and even ordinary voters. </p>
<p>How does speech turn into violent action? Security specialists and scholars use the term “<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/jargon-watch-rising-danger-stochastic-terrorism/">stochastic terrorism</a>” to capture how a single, hard-to-locate person might be inspired or influenced toward violence by broader extremist rhetoric, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/california-donald-trump-san-francisco-47c103cfe696df9faf0e57e1c7dd4f10">as appears to have been the case</a> with the man who allegedly tried to kill Paul Pelosi with a hammer. </p>
<p>Law enforcement’s problem is made worse by right-wing lawmakers who normalize or actively praise the actions of violent extremists, calling them “<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-and-allies-work-to-rebrand-jan-6-rioters-as-patriots-heroes-and-martyrs-01626809391">patriots</a>” and demanding their prison sentences be overturned or <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/30/trump-pardon-jan6-defendants-00003450">pardoned</a>. This helps obscure the actual reasons for such incidents, often by deflecting them into broader conspiracy theories involving their opponents.</p>
<p>Certainly there are controversial left-leaning politicians, pundits, activists and talking points too. </p>
<p>But few – if any – openly disregard the fabric of American government, scheme to overturn democratic elections by force or plot to assassinate politicians. </p>
<p>By contrast, there are over <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/10/07/democracy-on-the-ballot-how-many-election-deniers-are-on-the-ballot-in-november-and-what-is-their-likelihood-of-success/">300 Republican election deniers</a> running for office this year, including many incumbents – the vast majority of whom endorse political violence such as the Jan. 6 attack either by their actions or their silence. </p>
<h2>Hope for the best; prepare for the worst</h2>
<p>Tensions are high heading into the 2022 midterms. Politicians are making final arguments, and the online messaging machines are spreading campaign information, fundraising requests – and plenty of disinformation as well.</p>
<p>Americans expect a <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/why-presidential-transition-process-matters">peaceful transfer of political power</a> after elections, but recent history shows we must prepare for the worst. It’s clear that the modern Republican Party is openly and successfully embracing and exploiting misinformation, outrage and attacks on democracy and the rule of law. </p>
<p>Until Republicans actively disavow their extremist rhetoric and the misinformation contributing to it, I believe the likelihood for political violence in America increases with each passing day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Forno has received research funding related to cybersecurity from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Department of Defense (DOD) during his academic career, and sits on the advisory board of BlindHash, a cybersecurity startup focusing on remedying the password problem. He is a registered independent voter, too.</span></em></p>The rise in contemporary right-wing political extremism – and violence – can be traced back to events in the 1990s.Richard Forno, Principal Lecturer in Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1883802022-08-09T11:23:25Z2022-08-09T11:23:25ZChina-US tensions: how global trade began splitting into two blocs<p>Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/03/world/asia/pelosi-taiwan-china.html">visit to Taiwan</a> has elicited a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-defends-ditching-us-talks-says-washington-must-bear-serious-consequences-2022-08-08/">strong response</a> from China: three days of simulated attack on Taiwan with further drills announced, plus a withdrawal from critical ongoing conversations with the US on climate change and the military.</p>
<p>This strong reaction was predictable. President Xi <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/28/xi-jinping-tells-joe-biden-not-to-play-with-fire-over-taiwan-in-two-hour-call">had earlier warned</a> President Biden not “to play with fire”. Of course, if Pelosi’s visit hadn’t gone ahead, the Biden administration would have faced a strong reaction from both parties in Congress for not standing up to China’s threat to Taiwan or human rights issues regarding <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/country-chapters/china-and-tibet">Tibet and Xinjiang</a>, not to mention Hong Kong.</p>
<p>So where does it leave trade between the world’s two leading powers? </p>
<h2>How business trumped ideology</h2>
<p>Consider the not-too-distant past. The US supported the Republic of China against Japan in the Pacific war of 1941-45. When the Chinese leadership fled to Taiwan in 1949 following the victory of Mao Zedong’s communists in the Chinese civil war, Washington continued to recognise the exiled regime as China’s legitimate government, blocking the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from joining the United Nations. </p>
<p>This shifted in 1972 following President Nixon’s historic visit to China (in a move to isolate the Soviets). The US now recognised the PRC as China’s sole government and accepted its One China policy. It downgraded its Taiwan relations to merely informal, while affirming a peaceful settlement to the mainland communists’ claim that this was a breakaway province that had to be assimilated. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478091/original/file-20220808-22-31lgxg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mao Zedong shakes hands with a smiling Richard Nixon." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478091/original/file-20220808-22-31lgxg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478091/original/file-20220808-22-31lgxg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478091/original/file-20220808-22-31lgxg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478091/original/file-20220808-22-31lgxg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478091/original/file-20220808-22-31lgxg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478091/original/file-20220808-22-31lgxg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478091/original/file-20220808-22-31lgxg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Richard Nixon meeting Chairman Mao Zedong in Peking (Beijing) in 1972.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/13476480@N07/51232033330">manhhai</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This opened US-China trade, ending a US <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1971/06/11/archives/president-ends-21year-embargo-on-peking-trade-authorizes-export-of.html">trade embargo</a> in place since the 1940s. Economic ties proliferated in the 1980s under Mao’s eventual successor, Deng Xiaoping, helping the Chinese economy to multiply while the US enjoyed lower consumer prices and a stronger stock market. </p>
<p>Western manufacturing firms either outsourced to Chinese firms or set up operations themselves. They benefited from cheaper production and – for those outsourcing – not having to own factories or deal with labour issues. In turn, the Chinese gained tremendous manufacturing capability. </p>
<p>As China’s middle class grew wealthier, the country became a major target consumer market for US firms such as Apple and GM. The <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2018/04/05/news/economy/china-foreign-companies-restrictions/index.html">Chinese authorities insisted</a> this was done through local partner firms, transferring technology in the process and further enhancing the nation’s manufacturing know-how. </p>
<h2>The growing Chinese threat</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/globalisation-supply">China and the US captured</a> more than half the growth in GDP across the world from 1980 to 2020. <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD">US GDP</a> grew nearly five times from US$4.4 trillion (£3.6 trillion) to US$20.9 trillion (£17.3 trillion) in today’s money, while <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/CN">China’s grew</a> from US$310 billion to US$14.7 trillion. </p>
<p>China is now the second largest economy, although the IMF, World Bank and CIA consider it the largest once purchasing power is taken into account (see chart below). The US is still well ahead on per capita income (<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/263601/gross-domestic-product-gdp-per-capita-in-the-united-states/#:%7E:text=In%202021%2C%20the%20gross%20domestic,US%20GDP%20for%20further%20information.">US$69,231</a> vs <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/263775/gross-domestic-product-gdp-per-capita-in-china/#:%7E:text=In%202021%2C%20per%20capita%20GDP,12%2C359%20U.S.%20dollars%20in%20China.">US$12,359</a> in 2021), though China’s is now that of a “developed” country, having lifted <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/01/lifting-800-million-people-out-of-poverty-new-report-looks-at-lessons-from-china-s-experience">800 million people out of poverty</a> in the process. </p>
<p>The US has become increasingly concerned about China’s faster economic growth and the fact that the US <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277">buys much more</a> from its rival than the other way around. This drove the big decline in US domestic manufacturing that famously helped Donald Trump to win the US presidency. </p>
<p><strong>Chinese and US GDP based on purchasing power parity 1990-2021</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478055/original/file-20220808-22-ue5d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing Chinese and US GDP on a PPP basis." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478055/original/file-20220808-22-ue5d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478055/original/file-20220808-22-ue5d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478055/original/file-20220808-22-ue5d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478055/original/file-20220808-22-ue5d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478055/original/file-20220808-22-ue5d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478055/original/file-20220808-22-ue5d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478055/original/file-20220808-22-ue5d8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">World Bank</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Equally, the rivalry has extended to other areas as China has sought a leading role on the world stage. Both nations are <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons">nuclear powers</a>, although the Chinese military has only 350 nuclear warheads to America’s 5,500. </p>
<p>China has a <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/yes-china-has-the-worlds-largest-navy-that-matters-less-than-you-might-think/">larger navy</a>, with some 360 battle force ships compared to the US 297, although China’s are mostly smaller – only three aircraft carriers compared to America’s 11, for example. The two countries are also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/science/china-moon-mission-rocks.html?searchResultPosition=4">competing in space</a> to bring astronauts to the Moon and establish the first lunar base.</p>
<p>All this has threatened American dominance, while President Xi has also been much more forthright both domestically and internationally than any Chinese leader since Mao. The US has gradually become more hostile, starting with <a href="https://time.com/4218952/obama-asean-us-summit-asia/">President Obama’s pivot</a> towards other Asian nations in 2016 and then <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trump-trade-war-china-date-guide">President Trump’s</a> public complaints and eventual sanctioning of China’s “unfair” trade practices. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/17/us/politics/trump-china-tariffs-trade.html">imposed extra tariffs</a> on goods imported from China in 2018 and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/technology/trump-china-smic-blacklist.html">restricted China’s access</a> to various semiconductor manufacturing technologies in 2020, while the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48253002">Chinese responded</a> with <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46915">countermeasures</a> along the way. </p>
<p>When President Biden took office in 2021, he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/summit-with-se-asia-japan-champions-open-seas-australia-defends-aukus-pact-2021-10-27/">began highlighting</a> long-simmering complaints about human rights issues in Xinjiang and the threat to Taiwan (while still endorsing the One China Policy). He also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-issues-human-rights-related-sanctions-adds-sensetime-blacklist-2021-12-10/">imposed sanctions</a> on certain <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7bc70335-138e-4f56-afe1-ae4383eefb2b">Chinese companies</a> of a kind not been seen since the Mao-era trade embargo.</p>
<p><strong>US trade in goods to China 2011-21</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478080/original/file-20220808-14-t1cie1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing US trade in goods to China" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478080/original/file-20220808-14-t1cie1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478080/original/file-20220808-14-t1cie1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478080/original/file-20220808-14-t1cie1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478080/original/file-20220808-14-t1cie1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478080/original/file-20220808-14-t1cie1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478080/original/file-20220808-14-t1cie1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478080/original/file-20220808-14-t1cie1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Note the US trade in services to China is about one-tenth that of goods. In 2020 the US exported US$40 billion in services to China and imported US$16 billion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/277679/total-value-of-us-trade-in-goods-with-china-since-2006/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20the%20total%20value,billion%20U.S.%20dollar%20import%20value.">Statista</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Biden also banned goods from <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-signs-bill-clamp-down-products-chinas-xinjiang-2021-12-23/">China’s Xinjiang</a> region on the grounds of forced labour in 2022, affecting the purchasing of goods by many western companies. China reportedly moved workers to other parts of the country to enable western companies to keep purchasing.</p>
<h2>Bipolarity is back</h2>
<p>COVID-19 further increased the distance between the two countries. After China’s zero COVID policy helped to disrupt supply chains and cause product shortages, the Biden administration began calling for reduced dependency on its rival. </p>
<p>US firms have duly been restructuring their supply chains. In June, Apple <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supply-Chain/Apple-to-shift-iPad-capacity-to-Vietnam-amid-China-supply-chain-woes">moved some iPad production</a> from China to Vietnam, albeit also because of growing demand in south-east Asia.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/us-mexico-china-factories/2020/08/12/c29f4a9a-d0f1-11ea-8c55-61e7fa5e82ab_story.html">Near-shoring to Mexico</a> is gaining momentum. Apple manufacturers Foxconn and Pegatron are considering producing iPhones for North America in Mexico rather than China to take advantage of lower labour costs and the <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement">free-trade agreement</a> between the US and Mexico.</p>
<p>Two global blocs are increasingly emerging, with US treasury secretary Janet Yellen in April calling for “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/21/business/janet-yellen-supply-chains.html">friend-shoring</a>” with trusted partners, dividing countries into friends or foes. The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/26/fact-sheet-president-biden-and-g7-leaders-formally-launch-the-partnership-for-global-infrastructure-and-investment/">Biden administration announced</a> at the June G7 meeting a new “Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment”. Aiming to mobilise US$600 billion in investments over five years, this is an overture to various developing countries already being courted by China under its similar <a href="https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/belt-road-initiative/">Belt and Road Initiative</a>.</p>
<p>Days earlier, China had hosted the annual BRICS summit, which includes Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. It welcomed leaders from 13 other countries: Algeria, Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Senegal, Uzbekistan, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Malaysia and Thailand. Xi urged the summit to build a “global community of security” based on multilateral cooperation. <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/iran-argentina-apply-to-join-brics-bloc-after-recent-summit-report-122062800935_1.html">Iran and Argentina</a> have since applied to join the bloc. </p>
<p>We are already seeing what bipolarity will mean for vital components and commodities. In nanochips, the US is leading a “<a href="https://techwireasia.com/2022/07/chip-4-alliance-japan-pours-money-into-kioxia-western-digital-to-cement-pact-with-the-us-spur-chip-production/">chips 4</a>” pact with Japan, Taiwan and possible South Korea to develop next-generation technologies and manufacturing capacity. China is <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Beijing-probes-leaders-of-China-s-semiconductor-industry-drive#:%7E:text=China%20laid%20out%20plans%20in,2020%20and%2070%25%20by%202025.">investing US$1.4 trillion</a> between 2020 and 2025 in a bid to become self-reliant in this technology. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/taiwan-dominates-the-worlds-supply-of-computer-chips-no-wonder-the-us-is-worried-188242">Taiwan dominates the world’s supply of computer chips – no wonder the US is worried</a>
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<hr>
<p>Another big issue is cobalt, which is essential for making lithium batteries for electric vehicles. To secure supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which produces 70% of world reserves, China has navigated Congolese politics, lobbying powerful politicians in mining regions. <a href="https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022/05/20/how-chinese-firms-have-changed-africa">By 2020</a>, Chinese firms owned or had a stake in 15 of the DRC’s 19 cobalt-producing mines. </p>
<p>As China hoards cobalt supplies, the US seeks alternatives. GM is developing its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/business/energy-environment/next-generation-auto-battery.html">Ultium battery cell</a>, which needs 70% less cobalt than today’s batteries, while <a href="https://www.ornl.gov/news/new-class-cobalt-free-cathodes-could-enhance-energy-density-next-gen-lithium-ion-batteries">Oak Ridge National Laboratory</a> is developing a battery that doesn’t need the metal at all. </p>
<h2>Silver linings</h2>
<p>As US-China relations have moved from building bridges in 1972 to building walls in 2022, countries will increasingly be forced to choose sides and companies will have to plan supply chains accordingly. Those seeking to trade in both blocs will need to “divisionalise”, running parallel operations. </p>
<p>American companies wanting to serve Chinese consumers will still need to manufacture in China or other nations within that bloc, while Chinese companies will need to do the same in reverse. Interestingly, Chinese companies have been <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/19/china-buying-us-farms-foreign-purchase-499893">rapidly buying</a> farmland and agriculture-based companies in the US and elsewhere. </p>
<p>Yet though the new supply chains will almost certainly increase costs for western consumers and dampen China’s growth, there will be benefits. Supply chains should be more resilient to future crises and also more transparent, while reduced transportation (and reliance on Chinese coal) should cut carbon emissions. This should help to meet the <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">UN Sustainable Development Goals</a> on environmental and social sustainability. </p>
<p>The cobalt and nanochips examples also show how the US-China rivalry is catalysing innovation. And importantly, global trade will continue growing as countries depend on each other, even as trade links change.</p>
<p>It will certainly take time to find an equilibrium. It took years for the USSR and US to figure out how to co-exist without getting into direct military conflict. Hillary Clinton <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific-century/">wrote in 2011</a> as Secretary of State that “there is no handbook for the evolving US-China relationship”, and that remains the case today. </p>
<p>At any rate, the businesses that thrive in this new environment will likely be those that plan for a divided world with divisional supply chains. The recent Taiwan row will probably not lead to direct military conflict; rather it will reinforce a trend that has been gathering momentum for a decade or more.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188380/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Welcome to an era of two parallel worlds in global business.ManMohan S Sodhi, Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management, City, University of LondonChristopher S. Tang, Professor of Supply Chain Management, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882052022-08-08T17:05:58Z2022-08-08T17:05:58ZNancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan causes an ongoing Chinese tantrum in the Taiwan Strait<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477952/original/file-20220807-51907-nxvblg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C0%2C6000%2C3413&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People walk past a billboard welcoming U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in Taipei, Taiwan, on Aug. 3, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the United States House of Representatives, lasted just 24 hours. </p>
<p>But it vividly highlighted both China’s heavy-handed reaction, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/08/china-announces-fresh-military-drills-around-taiwan.html">including continuing military drills around Taiwan</a> days after her departure, and how the Taiwan Strait is a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/05/what-the-fallout-from-pelosis-visit-means-for-taiwan-and-china">geopolitical fault-line between the China and the rest of the world</a>. </p>
<p>At its narrowest, the Taiwan Strait is a 130-kilometre-wide channel of water separating the People’s Republic of China from the island of Taiwan. </p>
<p>But the divide between Taiwan and China is more than geographic. For more than half a century, the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/taiwan-strait-crises">Taiwan Strait has been one of the last vestiges of the Cold War</a>. It’s emblematic of the division between the authoritarianism of China and the thriving democracy of Taiwan.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, Taiwan is also something of an international pariah. That’s because few countries officially maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan, often out of fear of China’s repercussions. For too long, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38285354">the so-called “One China” policy</a>, which provides that there is only one China in the world — and that Taiwan is part of that China — has been the foundation of all dealings with Taiwan. </p>
<p>However, while China dictates that all countries adhere to this policy, the <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/">United States</a>, the <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199900/cmselect/cmfaff/uc574iv/574m15.htm">United Kingdom</a>, the <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-taiwan-political-relations-and-cooperation-speech-behalf-high-representativevice-president_en">European Union</a> and also <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/country-pays/taiwan/relations.aspx?lang=eng">Canada</a> have merely said they “acknowledge” it.</p>
<p>Much to China’s ire, many countries continue to maintain economic, cultural and even military ties with Taiwan. Pelosi’s visit, in Beijing’s eyes, was “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-us-politicians-who-play-with-fire-taiwan-will-pay-2022-08-02/">playing with fire</a>.”</p>
<h2>Routine visit and China’s over-reaction</h2>
<p>China’s immediate reaction to Pelosi’s visit was <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/5/china-military-drills-to-resume-around-taiwan-despite-concerns">to conduct military drills and send ballistic missiles over Taiwan</a>. However, visits by foreign lawmakers to Taiwan are nothing new. </p>
<p>The Czech Republic’s Senate speaker led a delegation to Taiwan in August 2020, and China responded that Czech leaders would <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/czech-china-taiwan/a-54764477">“pay a heavy price.”</a> The <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/world/asia/2022/07/20/european-parliament-vp-urges-renewed-china-taiwan-dialogue.html">vice president of the European Parliament visited Taiwan in July 2022</a>, and underscored the island’s “role as a global, strategic, responsible and reliable international partner.”</p>
<p>Yet Pelosi is the only person to be personally sanctioned by China, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-sexist-china-b2137335.html">sparking speculation that China’s reaction is misogynistic</a>. </p>
<p>Taiwan’s democratically elected president, Tsai Ing-Wen, is a woman and was on <a href="https://time.com/collection/100-most-influential-people-2020/5888307/tsai-ing-wen/"><em>Time</em> magazine’s 2020 list of the most influential people in the world </a> for standing up to China’s constant and overt aggressions.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1308797245043683328"}"></div></p>
<h2>World response to the crisis</h2>
<p>In retaliation for Pelosi’s visit, China also suspended <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-summons-european-diplomats-statement-taiwan-87981101">climate talks and military ties with the United States</a>, further escalating tensions and suggesting China is not very serious about climate action. </p>
<p>The European Union’s foreign minister called on China not to “<a href="https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1555014758335668227">use a visit as pretext for aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait</a>.” Japan said China’s military drills will have “<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220805-japan-s-prime-minister-calls-for-immediate-cancellation-of-chinese-military-drills">a serious impact on the peace and stability of our region and the international community</a>,” while the G7 foreign ministers condemned the “<a href="https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/-/2545896">threatening actions … particularly live-fire exercises and economic coercion, which risk unnecessary escalation</a>.”</p>
<p>With the <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/china-extends-threatening-military-exercises-around-taiwan-1.6018056">ongoing military drills</a>, China appears to be demonstrating its ability to <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/toward-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis">implement a blockade of Taiwan</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1556097162383134720"}"></div></p>
<p>But the <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/taiwan-tensions-raise-risks-in-one-of-busiest-shipping-lanes-1.1800174">Taiwan Strait is one of the busiest international shipping lanes in the world</a>. In addition, some of the <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/iasl/files/iasl/the_missing_link_in_the_global_aviation_safety_and_security_network_text_final_0.pdf">world’s busiest commercial airline routes traverse the airspace surrounding Taiwan</a>. </p>
<p>This is no surprise because Taiwan is a large trading nation, producing more than <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/2-charts-show-how-much-the-world-depends-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors.html">50 per cent of the world’s semiconductors, which provide the computing power behind modern devices and fuel the global economy</a>. A Chinese blockade or invasion of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-23/economic-chaos-of-a-taiwan-war-would-go-well-past-semiconductors">Taiwan would have extreme ramifications for the rest of the world</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A contrail from a military jet in a blue sky with a half-moon visible." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477951/original/file-20220807-51907-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477951/original/file-20220807-51907-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477951/original/file-20220807-51907-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477951/original/file-20220807-51907-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477951/original/file-20220807-51907-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477951/original/file-20220807-51907-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477951/original/file-20220807-51907-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A military plane flies above the Taiwan Strait at the closest point in mainland China to the island of Taiwan in southeastern China’s Fujian province on Aug. 5, 2022, three days after Pelosi’s visit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Critical stretch of international waters</h2>
<p>Earlier in June, China said it has <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202206/t20220613_10702460.html">“sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait</a>,” a claim that’s been <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jillgoldenziel/2022/06/28/china-claims-to-own-the-taiwan-strait-thats-illegal/?sh=4fe1845d9ba2">refuted by the U.S. as a violation of international law</a>. </p>
<p>China also claims sovereignty over disputed islands in the South China Sea, a claim that the <a href="https://pca-cpa.org/en/cases/7/">Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled has no legal basis</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/closindx.htm">United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea</a> clearly provides that the high seas are not subject to claims of sovereignty and all states enjoy the freedoms of navigation and overflight. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/china-canada-warships-taiwan-strait-1.6214303">Canada and other countries regularly send warships through the Taiwan Strait</a> in an effort to refute China’s attempt to take control of this international body of water.</p>
<p>In violation of international law, China’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/05/china-missile-drills-around-taiwan-a-threat-to-regional-security-says-japan-pm">deliberate testing of ballistic missiles and drills impact not just Taiwan’s territorial sea</a>, but also encroaches on the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-protests-after-chinese-missiles-land-its-exclusive-economic-zone-2022-08-04/">exclusive economic zone of Japan</a>.</p>
<p>That means China’s overreaction to what it claims is a purely domestic issue is ironically turning the conflict over Taiwan into an international crisis. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large ship moves along a blue sea." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477953/original/file-20220807-67272-qales6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477953/original/file-20220807-67272-qales6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477953/original/file-20220807-67272-qales6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477953/original/file-20220807-67272-qales6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477953/original/file-20220807-67272-qales6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477953/original/file-20220807-67272-qales6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477953/original/file-20220807-67272-qales6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ships move through the Taiwan Strait.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The people of Taiwan matter</h2>
<p>In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs wrote: “<a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/03/02/2003774022">The people of Taiwan unfortunately know all too well what it is like to live under the shadow of threats and intimidation</a>.”</p>
<p>Before Taiwan became a democracy, it was an oppressive military dictatorship. Why would 23.5 million people made up of <a href="https://www.stearthinktank.com/post/indigenous-linguistic-legacy-taiwan">ethnic Taiwanese, Chinese and 15 Pacific Island Indigenous tribes</a> who live <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/nancy-pelosi-calls-taiwan-one-of-the-freest-societies-in-the-world-during-visit-to-the-island/articleshow/93316096.cms">in what Pelosi called “one of the freest societies in the world</a>” want to be, <a href="https://chineseposters.net/themes/taiwan-liberation">as China has for decades stated, “liberated?”</a> </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protesters light candles at a night-time vigil." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477954/original/file-20220807-32086-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477954/original/file-20220807-32086-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477954/original/file-20220807-32086-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477954/original/file-20220807-32086-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477954/original/file-20220807-32086-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477954/original/file-20220807-32086-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477954/original/file-20220807-32086-zekez8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hundreds of participants attend a candlelight vigil at Democracy Square in Taipei, Taiwan, in June 2020 to mark the anniversary of the Chinese military crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite binding obligations under <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/foreign-secretary-statement-on-the-25th-anniversary-of-the-handover-of-hong-kong">the Sino-British Joint Declaration</a>, the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/feature/2021/06/25/dismantling-free-society/hong-kong-one-year-after-national-security-law">erosion of civil liberties and judicial independence in Hong Kong</a> illustrate that Beijing does not live up to its international commitments. </p>
<p>Furthermore, China has incarcerated more than a million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in so-called “re-education camps” and subjected them to what <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/uyghur-tribunal-genocide-xinjiang-b1972682.html">amounts to crimes against humanity</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-independent-tribunal-came-to-rule-that-china-is-guilty-of-genocide-against-the-uyghurs-173604">How an independent tribunal came to rule that China is guilty of genocide against the Uyghurs</a>
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<p>The Chinese ambassador to France recently said openly that the people of <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/china-reeducate-taiwan-reunification-ambassador-1731141">Taiwan too will be “re-educated</a>.” It’s hard to imagine why anyone would wish to live under a regime where there is no <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/media-censorship-china">political or media freedom</a> and where <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/15/canada-us-and-allies-denounce-immoral-arbitrary-detentions">citizens and foreign nationals are subject to arbitrary detention</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://press.un.org/en/2012/gashc4051.doc.htm">Self-determination is the inalienable right of all peoples to live free from fear and oppression</a>. As China and the United States lock horns in the Indo-Pacific, it’s vital that the world stand behind the people of Taiwan. The international community must call out acts of aggression that undermine regional and global peace and security.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kuan-Wei Chen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Visits by foreign law-makers to Taiwan are nothing new. So why did China react in such a heavy-handed manner to Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit?Kuan-Wei Chen, Executive Director, Centre for Research in Air and Space Law, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1883242022-08-08T13:04:17Z2022-08-08T13:04:17ZTaiwan: the US has been strengthening support for years – now it needs a way to ease tensions with China<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478064/original/file-20220808-2624-q3pbp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2048%2C1171&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/TAIWAN Presidential Palace</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent visit by the speaker of the US House of Representatives to Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi, was made against the wishes of the US government and despite threats from the People’s Republic of China. Following Pelosi’s visit, China launched the <a href="https://theconversation.com/taiwan-beijing-reacts-to-pelosis-visit-with-live-fire-exercises-prompting-fears-of-escalation-188192">largest military exercises</a> ever held so close to the island of Taiwan, which simulated, according to the People’s Liberation Army, an “island attack campaign” in the actual airspace and waters where such an attack would begin.</p>
<p>Despite insisting that the exercises would end on August 7, the drills are reportedly continuing. So is a barrage of Chinese propaganda designed to undermine morale in Taiwan and increase pressure on Washington over the question of Chinese sovereignty over the island, which Beijing has claimed since the communist takeover in 1949.</p>
<p>The US government has maintained the core elements of its policy towards Taiwan, including “<a href="https://theconversation.com/afghanistan-withdrawal-has-taiwan-pondering-its-alliance-with-the-us-and-china-is-upping-the-pressure-166713">strategic ambiguity</a>”. This is the doctrine which maintains that the US will help build Taiwan’s military capabilities, but provides no guarantees to provide direct military support in response to a military attack by China. But over the past decade Washington has increased its emphasis towards support for Taiwan in response to what it perceives to be increasingly assertive Chinese actions. </p>
<p>The US has taken a range of measures to deepen the unofficial ties <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10275">between Washington and Taipei</a>. These include the Taiwan Travel Act (2018) that enables informal exchanges between US and Taiwanese officials and the 2019 <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/2002">Taiwan Assurance Act</a> which has enabled multiple arms sale packages. </p>
<p>The Biden administration has continued to maintain high-profile support for Taiwan by continuing military arms sales and training, enhancing official exchanges and seeking to include Taiwan in the Japan-US <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-security-role-taiwan-seen-focus-two-plus-two-talks-with-us-2022-01-06/">“Two+Two”</a> security agreement. </p>
<p>In May 2022 the US president, Joe Biden, said the US would defend Taiwan if it was <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/24/biden-taiwan-china-defense-policy/">attacked</a>, a statement which appeared to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-and-taiwan-why-the-war-of-words-is-unlikely-to-lead-to-military-conflict-for-now-at-least-169746">in violation of</a> “strategic ambiguity”. The administration soon walked back Biden’s statements and reaffirmed that US policy in respect to the security of Taiwan <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/is-biden-bringing-strategic-ambiguity-on-taiwan-to-an-end/">had not changed</a>.</p>
<h2>Biden’s priorities</h2>
<p>Despite its policy of strengthening US-Taiwan relations, the Biden administration did not support Pelosi’s trip to Taipei because of the potential for escalating tension with <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/03/biden-pelosi-taiwan-trip-beijing-00049625">Beijing</a>. The Pelosi trip drew a mixed response in the US press. Some prominent commentators considered the trip unwise as it unnecessarily raised tension in a complex strategic relationship at a time when the US had to deal with the Ukraine <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/opinion/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-china.html">invasion crisis</a>. </p>
<p>But the fear that China’s military exercises could lead to a military confrontation between China and USA seems <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-and-taiwan-why-the-war-of-words-is-unlikely-to-lead-to-military-conflict-for-now-at-least-169746">misplaced</a>. Both sides have strong interests in avoiding this outcome. </p>
<p>Instead China’s actions appear to aim to send a powerful signal to the US government to reverse what they see as a Washington’s “hollowing out” of agreed policies towards Taiwan. At the same time this display of China’s military might also be designed to demonstrate Xi’s strength to a domestic audience as he works to be appointed to a third presidential term at the 20th party congress <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/04/ccp-regulations-and-xi-jinpings-bid-for-a-third-term/">later this year</a>. </p>
<p>While the Biden administration rebuked China for its disproportionate actions, the China extended its military exercises further as a “warning to the United States”. It has also suspended cooperation with the US on a range of issues, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/china-suspends-climate-talks-with-us/">including on climate change</a>, making it clear that the signals it is sending are not primarily targeted at Taipei but at <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/8/6/23294700/us-china-taiwan-pelosi-visit-protest">Washington</a>. </p>
<p>In the longer term, it is unlikely that the Biden administration will depart from its “one-China” policy. But the concept of “strategic ambiguity” is coming under strain, as the US has become much more concerned with deterring China from attempting to reunify Taiwan by force. </p>
<p>Taiwan’s public and political parties appear content to <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden">maintain the status quo</a>. But by contrast, China’s increasingly assertive policies towards Taiwan, and more widely in the region, imply that future crises in the Taiwan Straits are likely. </p>
<p>A future crisis could escalate into an attempted invasion of Taiwan if China’s leaders believe that the US is unlikely to become directly militarily involved. This could lead to a wider war involving China, the US and others – a terrible outcome for all parties. </p>
<h2>Stronger messaging</h2>
<p>One approach to achieving more robust deterrence would be for the US and its allies to make clearer commitments – and also realistic military preparations – to come to the defence of Taiwan in response to a military attack by China. This could reduce the risk that China believes it can escalate and deescalate crises at will, and so make it more cautious about issuing threats against its neighbours. </p>
<p>Some analysts draw lessons from the cold war experience, arguing that early crises over Berlin, Korea and Cuba ultimately led to relatively stable security arrangements between the [US and the Soviet Union]. Tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea may accelerate the formation of multilateral arrangements to contain China. For example the <a href="https://opal.latrobe.edu.au/articles/report/The_Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue_Towards_an_Indo-Pacific_order_/13309820">Quadrilateral Security Dialogue</a> (the Quad) between Australia, India, Japan and the US could be turned into a coalition with tangible military capabilities. </p>
<p>But this approach also has great risks. A cold war confrontation between US and China could have disastrous implications for other US foreign policy priorities. This becomes all the more complex, given Washington’s need to tackle Russian aggression in Europe while also addressing global problems such as climate change. Moreover, despite their disputes with China, virtually all of China’s neighbours want to avoid such an outcome, and are unlikely to participate.</p>
<p>Instead we can expect continued US strategic ambiguity combined with closer informal relations with Taiwan. The priority for the US, China and other interested states must be to develop a stronger framework for conflict prevention and crisis management. And to find a way to lower the temperature so that informal US visits to Taiwan become more acceptable to China.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188324/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Owen Greene is affiliated with several NGOs and NGO networks that are concerned with conflict prevention and international security, including Saferworld and VERTIC (Verification Research, Information and Information Centre). Note that this article reflects the individual views of the authors, and does not necessarily reflect views of either of these organisations.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christoph Bluth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Washington must continue to support Taiwan while seeking a better security dialogue with Beijing.Owen Greene, Professor of International Security and Development, University of BradfordChristoph Bluth, Professor of International Relations and Security, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881922022-08-04T14:54:58Z2022-08-04T14:54:58ZTaiwan: Beijing reacts to Pelosi’s visit with live-fire exercises prompting fears of escalation<p>The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has reportedly fired <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/aug/04/china-expected-to-begin-live-fire-military-exercises-near-taiwan-coast-in-wake-of-pelosi-visit-live">several DF-15B ballistic missiles</a> into the seas around Taiwan as part of large scale military drills announced in response to the visit this week by the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi. </p>
<p>The areas chosen for these exercises are unprecedented in their proximity to Taiwan, coming <a href="https://twitter.com/CIGeography/status/1554507123106750464/photo/1">much closer</a> than those of the previous <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2626754">Taiwan Straits Crisis in 1995-1996</a> and dramatically raising tensions in the region. Taiwan’s defence ministry <a href="https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202208030018">has denounced</a> the drills as tantamount to a military blockade of the island.</p>
<p>Uniting Taiwan with the mainland has been the goal of the Chinese Communist Party ever since it won the 1946-49 civil war on the mainland against Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek, who fled across the strait with his supporters to install the government of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. </p>
<p>In 2021, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-xi-jinpings-major-speech-means-taiwan">reiterated that</a>: “Resolving the Taiwan question and realising China’s complete reunification is a historic mission and an unshakeable commitment of the Communist Party of China.”</p>
<p>From Beijing’s perspective, US support for Taiwan has remained a – if not the – major obstacle to achieving unification. Following the outbreak of the Korean War, the US put a stop to any possible invasion plans by Beijing by deploying the 7th fleet in the Taiwan Strait. Later, in 1954, it entered into a defence treaty with Taiwan. The US did eventually terminate that treaty after establishing diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979. But the US Congress responded by passing the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479">Taiwan Relations Act</a>, which mandated the US to provide Taiwan defensive weapons and “maintain the capacity of the United States” to basically defend Taiwan. </p>
<p>Although the US did also withdraw diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, Beijing has remained acutely sensitive to any actions that would suggest Washington is seeking to inject any “officiality” into the relationship, as it believes this would constitute an erosion of US commitments to China over the status of Taiwan. This was a key issue at stake in the Taiwan Straits Crisis of 1995-1996, when the US permitted then Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui to <a href="https://cornellsun.com/2001/08/28/lee-visit-stirs-controversy/">visit his alma mater</a>, Cornell University. Pelosi’s visit – being the first in decades by such a high-ranking US politician – also touches on this nerve.</p>
<h2>What is at stake</h2>
<p>For Beijing, this is not just about Pelosi’s visit. </p>
<p>First, Beijing perceives an alarming larger trend in Washington’s relations with Taiwan. There has been a significant pace of <a href="https://www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/how-biden-building-trumps-legacy-taiwan">arms sales approvals</a>, a series of statements from US president Joe Biden about <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61548531">defending Taiwan</a> (something previously left ambiguous), and a variety of US officials and politicians recently visiting the island, among other things. The US government has repeatedly declared that its basic stance has not changed, but for Beijing <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-warns-china-against-unilateral-action-regarding-taiwan-2021-10-31/">all this suggests</a> that – in the words of China’s foreign minister Wang Yi – Washington is surreptitiously seeking to <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202208/t20220803_10732397.html">“hollow out” its policy</a>. Pelosi’s visit now appears to be the point at which Beijing sees the need to send a powerful signal to reverse this trend. </p>
<p>Second, Beijing has put its reputation on the line by explicitly warning against the trip. A speaker for the foreign ministry <a href="https://english.news.cn/20220801/c18aff840cbe4bc48de967148d95ab3c/c.html">threatened</a> that the People’s Liberation Army “will not sit idly by”. And Xi <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/01/pelosi-taiwan-xi-biden-china-00048940">cautioned Biden</a> that “those who play with fire will eventually get burned”. Beijing’s larger reputation and prestige have thus been threatened, and this <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13540661211045112">increases the stakes all the more</a>.</p>
<p>Last but not least, in a few months China will open its 20th party congress. Party congresses are a major political event that happen only every five years and which usher in major changes in key political positions and personnel. This upcoming party congress is set to be particularly significant, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/why-china-s-2022-party-congress-will-be-a-landmark-quicktake#xj4y7vzkg">as by many accounts</a> Xi is likely to break with precedent and seek a third term as leader of the Chinese Communist Party. </p>
<p>Even if Xi’s position is assured, this will still involve much political manoeuvring and potential infighting. So Xi will not want to leave himself exposed on other issues – especially one as sensitive and central as Taiwan. The domestically safe course of action is to take a hard line on Taiwan.</p>
<p>There is precedent to this. In <a href="https://tnsr.org/2019/09/more-significance-than-value-explaining-developments-in-the-sino-japanese-contest-over-the-senkaku-diaoyu-islands/">2012</a>, Japan defied Beijing to purchase the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. This was just before the 18th Party Congress when Xi was to take over from his predecessor, Hu Jintao. Beijing responded vehemently. Reportedly it was Xi who was put in charge of leading the response, and taking a hawkish stance made political sense. It would be two years before Sino-Japanese relations got back on track.</p>
<p>With the Pelosi visit now playing out <a href="https://www.whatsonweibo.com/from-starting-a-war-to-just-for-show-chinese-social-media-views-on-pelosis-potential-taiwan-visit/">so publicly</a>, Xi will likely not want this as a point of vulnerability.</p>
<h2>What to expect</h2>
<p>Given Beijing’s diplomatic playbook, this will likely mean a forceful performance of outrage (what I have labelled elsewhere a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2011.625771#metrics-content">“diplomacy of anger”</a>) to make the US, Taiwan and other potential audiences realise the sensitivity of the issue. In the past this has included fiery rhetoric, suspension of various meetings and diplomatic contacts, sanctions against individuals, targeted economic punishment and the arrest of select foreigners on national security charges.</p>
<p>It also has included military exercises. In the last <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2657901#metadata_info_tab_contents">Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995-1996</a>, Beijing launched ballistic missiles into the waters around Taiwan, leading to much concern in Taipei and Washington.</p>
<p>As is obvious, we are already seeing some of these measures, but Beijing now has a much larger toolbox so we may see new forms of punishment as well, particularly in the cyber sphere. These in turn will have knock-on effects on Taiwan’s currency, stock market, aviation and shipping, among other things. </p>
<p>The optimistic scenario is that once Beijing feels that it has sufficiently conveyed its message and the 20th Party Congress has passed, things will subside. But it may be that we see a new status quo of regularised Chinese military or paramilitary incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait. </p>
<p>The pessimistic scenario is that Beijing will take actions that Washington views as too incendiary to leave uncontested, sparking mutual escalation. Last time (1995-1996) the US <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2626754#metadata_info_tab_contents">sent two aircraft carriers</a>. If this time around each side sees itself as having to react to the other’s perceived provocations, things may enter a very dangerous spiral.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188192/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Hall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Beijing’s response to the visit by the US speaker has a lot do with internal Chinese politics.Todd Hall, Professor, Director of the China Centre, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881272022-08-03T18:06:22Z2022-08-03T18:06:22ZNancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit sparked international tension, but isn’t likely to shake up her popularity with Chinese American voters at home in San Francisco<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477461/original/file-20220803-14-r0xjbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her delegation leave Taipei on August 3, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-and-her-5member-congress-delegation-depart-picture-id1242283734?s=2048x2048">Taiwanese Foreign Ministry/Handout/Andalou Agency via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-nancy-pelosis-visit-to-taiwan-puts-the-white-house-in-delicate-straits-of-diplomacy-with-china-188116">visit to Taipei</a>, Taiwan, prompted warnings and threats from the Chinese government, but it is unlikely to upset her Taiwanese American and Chinese American constituents in San Francisco.</em></p>
<p><em>Pelosi left Taiwan on Aug. 3, 2022, after a whirlwind 24-hour trip, during which she <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/02/world/pelosi-taiwan#pelosi-taiwan">met with lawmakers</a> and Tsai Ing-wen, president of Taiwan. While Pelosi defended her trip <a href="https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/8222-3">by writing that</a> it shows the United States’ “commitment to democracy,” China responded with <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/pelosi-departs-taiwan-as-furious-china-holds-military-drills.html">military drills</a> and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220803-how-is-china-punishing-taiwan-for-the-pelosi-visit">threats of future punishment</a> for the U.S. and Taiwan.</em></p>
<p><em>Taiwan, an island off the coast of China, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59900139">considers itself</a> an independent country – while China maintains that it is a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-is-part-china-beijing-tells-us-2022-04-20/">breakaway province</a> it wants to again officially oversee.</em></p>
<p><em>Some experts called Pelosi’s trip reckless, threatening U.S.-China relations – but she won’t necessarily need to answer to <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/elections/article/SF-neighborhoods-where-Pelosi-got-least-votes-17226501.php">her voting base</a> in San Francisco, where there are 187,000 Chinese and Taiwanese Americans. Asian American studies scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=U2OFos4AAAAJ&hl=en">Jonathan H.X. Lee</a> in San Francisco explains why many voters in this community are not intensely invested in the escalating political tensions in the South China region. Here are four key points to keep in mind.</em></p>
<h2>This is unlikely to turn voters away from Pelosi</h2>
<p>For many Chinese Americans it is just not an issue that’s really on their radar. <a href="https://bancroft.berkeley.edu/collections/chinese-immigration-to-the-united-states-1884-1944/timeline.html">Most are</a> second- and third-generation Chinese Americans, and maybe sometimes even fourth-generation. They don’t have a lot of deep connections or nationalist kind of connections to mainland China. </p>
<p>If you were to ask a group of Chinese American college students about Taiwan, the majority would probably reflect the general kind of understanding that the general American public would have, which is not very much. They don’t know the history of Taiwan <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/why-relations-between-china-and-taiwan-are-so-tense">breaking off from China</a> in 1949. So the reason this doesn’t register with Chinese American voters in San Francisco is that this geopolitical issue is just not on their list of major issues. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People wear masks and hats and appear to protest in the streets, holding signs that say stop Asian hate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators listen to speakers during a march protesting Asian hate crimes and actions in San Francisco in March 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/william-guo-left-francis-kwok-henry-lei-right-all-of-alameda-and-a-picture-id1309485284?s=2048x2048">Ray Chavez/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Other priorities for voters</h2>
<p>I know that the leadership in Taiwan and people in Taiwan <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/03/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit-reaction/">are loving this visit</a> by Pelosi. So in terms of her approval with Taiwanese American voters, this will do a lot, because it really reaffirms the <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/05/believe-biden-when-he-says-america-will-defend-taiwan/">United States’ commitment to Taiwan’s sovereignty</a>, which Taiwanese Americans care about.</p>
<p>But currently, the <a href="https://apiavote.org/policy-and-research/asian-american-voter-survey/">major political issue</a> on many Chinese Americans’ and Taiwanese Americans’ minds would be <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/anti-asian-hate-crimes-increased-339-percent-nationwide-last-year-repo-rcna14282">anti-Chinese and anti-Asian hate</a> that has occurred since the start of this global pandemic – fanned by former president Donald Trump, who racialized the pandemic by using terms like “<a href="https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2021/03/420081/trumps-chinese-virus-tweet-linked-rise-anti-asian-hashtags-twitter">China virus</a>,” the “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-53173436">kung flu</a>” and so on. Inflation and economic issues are also a serious concern. </p>
<h2>Chinese Americans aren’t a homogeneous voting bloc</h2>
<p>Chinese American is an umbrella category that at times has its function. So in my research and in my discussions with Taiwanese foreign students, when they come to the U.S. they find themselves sometimes coming to the conclusion that it’s easier for them to just say, “I’m Chinese,” because they speak Mandarin. If they say they’re Taiwanese, they would be required to then explain. </p>
<p>Something that I hear them say quite often is, “I’m from Taiwan.” And then the person, not knowing anything about Taiwan versus China, says, “Oh, I love Thai food” – meaning food from Thailand, a totally different country. There’s that level of unawareness.</p>
<p>The Taiwanese American identity is a very unique identity within the Chinese American community. It <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/taiwanese-us-insist-identity-not-political-choice-must-census-option-rcna2225">says very clearly</a> that these people inherently support Taiwan’s geopolitical sovereignty. It is, in essence, a very nationalistic identity, not just a cultural one. <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=pcLQCgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=info:iKhXum4cN3IJ:scholar.google.com&ots=Y5fzZ-m7mA&sig=tU2dNgTdHNKJRPKqqr21vGsNLx0#v=onepage&q&f=false">Chinese Americans are less nationalistic</a>, because we’re not identifying with mainland China. Rather, we are identifying as members of a community that is linked to Chinese heritage, so it becomes more cultural, more linguistic.</p>
<p>Second- and third-generation Chinese Americans, especially, have lost some of the skills or don’t have some of the skills that help maintain a very strong cultural link, such as <a href="https://dailynorthwestern.com/2018/10/22/opinion/the-spectrum-im-still-chinese-even-if-i-cant-speak-the-language/">not speaking Mandarin or Cantonese</a>, or many of the other dialects of China. </p>
<p>And if anything, Chinese Americans are critics of China, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2022/country-chapters/china-and-tibet">in terms of</a> human rights, <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/chinas-tibet-policy-the-aftermath-last-springs-unrest">Tibet and</a> child labor issues. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white woman in a beige pantsuit and blue face mask stands next to a middle-aged Asian woman also wearing a pantsuit. Both wave their hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi poses with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei on Aug. 3, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/speaker-of-the-us-house-of-representatives-nancy-pelosi-left-poses-picture-id1412590000?s=2048x2048">Handout/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The overall political effect</h2>
<p>Taking a step back and looking at the history of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/01/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-china/">U.S. officials going</a> to Taiwan reveals that <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3584189-gingrich-china-threats-over-pelosi-taiwan-visit-a-bluff/">nothing has really</a> materialized from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rethinking-the-us-china-fight-does-china-really-threaten-american-power-abroad-148672">threats from China</a>. In terms of retaliation, there has always been very strong, public kind of speech about how they disapprove, and maybe some strong threats. But nothing came of those threats, and relations quickly normalized. And I think that’s going to be the case here, too.</p>
<p>I think the question of whether or not it will affect her <a href="https://pelosi.house.gov/about/our-district">constituents in San Francisco</a> is a very interesting question. And I think it’s exciting, because it reveals the diversity in terms of understanding Chinese Americans versus Taiwanese Americans. </p>
<p>The majority of Chinese Americans and Taiwanese Americans vote Democratic, so if Pelosi went or didn’t go, I don’t think it’s going have a huge effect. Because they’re <a href="https://theconversation.com/asian-americans-political-preferences-have-flipped-from-red-to-blue-145577">going to still vote blue</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188127/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan H. X. Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Chinese American voters are not a homogeneous group, many people who have ancestral ties to the region are unlikely to question their support for Nancy Pelosi just because of her Taiwan trip.Jonathan H. X. Lee, Professor of Asian American Studies, San Francisco State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881442022-08-03T08:30:22Z2022-08-03T08:30:22ZPelosi’s visit to Taiwan raises temperatures, but it’s in everyone’s interest to cool them down again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477363/original/file-20220803-14-6ql8mv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Taiwan Presidential Palace handout</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s provocative visit to Taiwan has been ill-timed from the perspective of China’s leader Xi Jinping.</p>
<p>In seeking to further consolidate his hold on power ahead of a <a href="https://www.china-briefing.com/news/understanding-the-significance-of-the-china-party-congress-of-the-chinese-communist-party/">National Party Congress</a> in November, Xi needs to demonstrate that he is in command.</p>
<p>The Pelosi visit challenges Xi’s strongman narrative domestically at a time when he will be seeking the support of his colleagues in the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party for a third term as party secretary.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-took-a-sledgehammer-to-us-china-relations-this-wont-be-an-easy-fix-even-if-biden-wins-147098">Trump took a sledgehammer to US-China relations. This won't be an easy fix, even if Biden wins</a>
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<p>If nothing else, the Pelosi mission illustrates the limitations on Xi’s pledge to return Taiwan peacefully to mainland control as part of his declared policy of “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/world/asia/china-taiwan-pelosi.html">national rejuvenation</a>” into a modern superpower. This goes some way towards explaining Beijing’s reaction to a visit to Taiwan by a member of the US Congress, albeit one who ranks third in the hierarchy behind President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.</p>
<p>There are two other factors at play. The first is suspicion in Beijing that the Biden administration is steering away from the US’s longstanding policy of “<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3160692/us-has-practised-strategic-ambiguity-taiwan-decades-set-change">strategic ambiguity</a>”, or avoiding confronting the “what if” issue if China threatened Taiwan militarily.</p>
<p>Biden has appeared on occasions to suggest that the US would come to Taiwan’s defence in the event of overt Chinese aggression. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/asia/biden-taiwan-china.html">This exchange</a> between a reporter and Biden in May will have concerned Beijing: </p>
<p><em>Reporter: You didn’t want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons. Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan, if it comes to that?</em></p>
<p><em>Biden: Yes.</em></p>
<p><em>Reporter: You are?</em></p>
<p><em>Biden: That’s the commitment we made.</em></p>
<p>The White House subsequently sought to walk back Biden’s statement, as it has done on other occasions when he has appeared to step away from a policy fudge on Taiwan.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477366/original/file-20220803-22-qh3gw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477366/original/file-20220803-22-qh3gw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477366/original/file-20220803-22-qh3gw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477366/original/file-20220803-22-qh3gw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477366/original/file-20220803-22-qh3gw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477366/original/file-20220803-22-qh3gw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477366/original/file-20220803-22-qh3gw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">US President Joe Biden has appeared to suggest that the US would come to Taiwan’s aid China if necessary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/AP/zz/Dennis Van Tine/STAR MAX/IPx</span></span>
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<p>The episode will have gnawed away at China’s confidence in the US commitment to a “one China policy” negotiated in various communiques and enshrined in the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/china-policy">normalisation agreement of 1979</a>. That agreement, under the Carter administration, extended full diplomatic recognition to China and severed normal ties with Taiwan.</p>
<p>Congress then enacted the <a href="https://china.usc.edu/taiwan-relations-act-1979">Taiwan Relations Act</a>, which allowed commercial and cultural relations and authorised the supply of weapons to bolster Taiwan’s defences. This has been a sore point with Beijing.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-risks-of-a-new-cold-war-between-the-us-and-china-are-real-heres-why-103772">The risks of a new Cold War between the US and China are real: here's why</a>
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<p>A second important element in China’s reaction almost certainly rests with Xi’s own exposure to the Taiwan issue as deputy party secretary in Fujian Province and political commissar in the People’s Liberation Army reserve during the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/RP9697/97rp14">rolling crises</a> with the US in 1995-96. Fujian is the province nearest to Taiwan.</p>
<p>In 1995, China was infuriated when President Bill Clinton authorised a visit to the US by Lee Teng-hui, leader of Taiwan’s Nationalist Party. This reversed a 15-year ban on visits by Taiwanese leaders.</p>
<p>Lee’s election the following year in Taiwan’s first free presidential election further displeased Beijing. This contributed to tensions throughout 1995-96 during which China conducted military exercises off Taiwan and the US sent warships to deter Chinese aggression.</p>
<p>Tensions between the US and China over Taiwan have surfaced sporadically since, but this latest eruption is probably the most serious given the high political stakes involved for Xi. However, it is in neither China’s nor the US’s interests to allow a military confrontation, although the possibility of an accident leading to a wider conflagration cannot be excluded.</p>
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<p>It is notable that in its <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/chinese-warplanes-buzz-line-dividing-taiwan-strait-reuters.html">military exercises in and around Taiwan</a>, China has been careful to avoid crossing a median line in the strait itself. The Chinese military has conducted air and sea drills. These have included live fire exercises.</p>
<p>Pelosi has been unrepentant about the diplomatic fallout her visit has caused. In a Washington Post <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/02/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit-op-ed/">opinion piece</a> released after she landed in Taiwan, she criticised Beijing for increasing tensions with Taiwan. She also took Beijing to task for its “brutal crackdown” on political dissent in Hong Kong, and its mistreatments of its Muslim Uighur minority.</p>
<p>White House spokesman <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-could-use-economic-coercion-against-taiwan-2022-08-02/">John Kirby</a> noted the administration’s misgivings about Pelosi’s visit. “What we don’t want to see is this spiral into any kind of a crisis or conflict,” Kirby said Tuesday. “There is no reason to amp this up.” This is particularly so at a moment when the US has been urging Beijing to use its influence with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-china-relations-were-already-heated-then-coronavirus-threw-fuel-on-the-flames-137886">US-China relations were already heated. Then coronavirus threw fuel on the flames</a>
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<p>So far, threats of Chinese retaliation have involved restrictions on some Taiwanese exports to China, and a melodramatic summoning in the middle of the night of US Ambassador to Beijing Nicholas Burns to the Foreign Ministry to receive a dressing down. The Pelosi visit may herald greater tensions in the US-China relationship, but a possible <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-xi-float-face-to-face-meeting-hold-honest-talks-taiwan-2022-07-28/">face-to-face meeting</a> between Biden and Xi will be aimed at lowering temperatures.</p>
<p>From Australia’s perspective, there’s no benefit to be gained from tensions between its security guarantor and the destination for one-third of its exports. This was reflected in remarks by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in an <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/television-interview-cnn-state-union">interview with CNN</a> when asked whether Australia would defend Taiwan militarily:</p>
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<p>Australia supports a one-China policy, but we also support the status quo when it comes to the issue of Taiwan. It is not in the interests of peace and security to talk up those issues of potential conflict.</p>
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<p>Albanese’s remarks mirror those of the White House spokesman regarding Taiwan, a reflection that it is not in anyone’s interests for this dispute to escalate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188144/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Walker is a board member of The Conversation.</span></em></p>The US speak of the house’s visit to Taiwan has provoked more sabre-rattling from China, but neither China nor the US will want tensions to escalate further.Tony Walker, Vice-chancellor's fellow, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881162022-08-02T16:54:12Z2022-08-02T16:54:12ZWhy Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan puts the White House in delicate straits of diplomacy with China<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477209/original/file-20220802-11-dgun2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C143%2C5964%2C4203&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Not everyone is so thrilled by the visit.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TaiwanAsiaPelosi/9de571a85ea94764b42c8468f79e6bbe/photo?Query=Pelosi&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=15306&currentItemNo=3">AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/02/world/pelosi-taiwan">arrived in Taiwan</a> on Aug. 2, 2022 – a highly controversial trip that has been strongly opposed by China.</p>
<p>Such is the sensitivity over the island’s status that even before Pelosi’s plane touched down in the capital of Taipei, mere reports of the proposed trip prompted a <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-25/china-confirms-warnings-to-u-s-on-pelosis-possible-taiwan-visit">warning by China</a> of “serious consequences.” In the hours before she set foot on the island, Chinese fighter jets <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pelosi-expected-arrive-taiwan-tuesday-sources-say-2022-08-02/">flew close to the median line separating Taiwan and China</a>, while Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi commented that U.S. politicians who “play with fire” on Taiwan would “come to no good end.”</p>
<p>For its part, the U.S. has distanced itself from the visit. Before the trip <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/biden-pelosi-trip-taiwan-china-military-00047031">President Joe Biden</a> said it was “not a good idea.” </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3LqBuPEAAAAJ&hl=en">someone who has long studied</a> the U.S.’s delicate diplomatic dance over Taiwan, I understand why this trip has sparked reaction in both Washington and Beijing, given the current tensions in the region. It also marks the continuation of a process that has seen growing U.S. political engagement with Taiwan – much to China’s annoyance.</p>
<h2>Cutting diplomatic ties</h2>
<p>The controversy over Pelosi’s visit stems from the “<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-us-one-china-policy-and-why-does-it-matter">one China” policy</a> – the diplomatic stance under which the U.S. recognizes China and acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China. The policy has governed U.S. relations with Taiwan for the past 40-plus years. </p>
<p>In 1979, the U.S. abandoned its previous policy of recognizing the government of Taiwan as that of all of China, instead <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/china-policy">shifting recognition</a> to the government on the mainland.</p>
<p>As part of this change, the U.S. cut off formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, with the U.S. embassy in Taiwan replaced by a nongovernmental entity called the <a href="https://www.ait.org.tw/">American Institute in Taiwan</a>.</p>
<p>The institute was a de facto embassy – though until 2002, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/107th-congress/house-bill/1646">Americans assigned to the institute</a> would have to <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2019/02/ex-diplomat-calls-for-oversight-of-us-office-in-taiwan/">resign from U.S. State Department</a> to go there, only to be rehired once their term was over. And contact between the two governments was technically unofficial.</p>
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<p>As the government in Taiwan <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/taiwans-democracy-and-the-china-challenge/">pursued democracy</a> – starting from the <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/end-martial-law-important-anniversary-taiwan">lifting of martial law in 1987</a> through the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/24/opinion/taiwan-s-democratic-election.html">first fully democratic elections in 1996</a> – it shifted away from the assumption once held by governments in both China and Taiwan of eventual reunification with the mainland. The government in China, however, has never abandoned the idea of “one China” and rejects the legitimacy of Taiwanese self-government. That has made direct contact between Taiwan and U.S. representatives contentious to Chinese officials. </p>
<p>Indeed, in 1995, when Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan’s first democratically elected president, touched down in Hawaii en route to Central America, he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1999/01/10/between-china-and-the-us/b540ea0c-3bdb-4b1a-8152-8230b7a47184/">didn’t even set foot on the tarmac</a>. The U.S. State Department had already warned that the president would be refused an entry visa to the U.S., but had allowed for a brief, low-level reception in the airport lounge during refueling. Apparently feeling snubbed, Lee refused to leave the airplane.</p>
<h2>Previous political visits</h2>
<p>Two years after this incident came a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/03/31/gingrich-tells-china-us-to-defend-taiwan/e6baa8f8-58fa-4119-8c0d-c936d36e9850/">visit to Taiwan by then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly to the Pelosi visit, the one by Gingrich <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/03/31/gingrich-tells-china-us-to-defend-taiwan/e6baa8f8-58fa-4119-8c0d-c936d36e9850/">annoyed Beijing</a>. But it was easier for the White House to distance itself from Gingrich – he was a Republican politician visiting Taiwan in his own capacity, and clearly not on behalf of then-President Bill Clinton.</p>
<p>Pelosi’s visit my be viewed differently by Beijing, because she is a member of the same party as President Joe Biden. China may assume she has Biden’s blessing, despite his comments to the contrary.</p>
<p>Asked on July 20 about his views on the potential Pelosi trip, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/biden-pelosi-trip-taiwan-china-military-00047031">Biden responded</a> that the “military thinks it’s not a good idea right now.” </p>
<p>The comment echoes the <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-on-taiwan-did-he-really-commit-us-forces-to-stopping-any-invasion-by-china-an-expert-explains-why-on-balance-probably-not-176765">White House’s earlier handling of a comment by Biden</a> in which he suggested in May 2022 that the U.S. would intervene “militarily” should China invade Taiwan. Officials in the Biden administration rolled back the comment, which would have broken a long-standing policy of ambiguity over what the U.S. would do if China tried to take Taiwan by force.</p>
<p>Similarly with Pelosi, the White House is distancing itself from a position that suggests a shift in U.S.-Taiwanese relations following a period in which the U.S. had already been trying to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/01/11/after-lifting-restrictions-on-us-taiwan-relations-what-comes-next/">rethink how it interacts</a> with Taiwan.</p>
<h2>Shifting policy?</h2>
<p>In 2018, Congress passed the bipartisan <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/535">Taiwan Travel Act</a>. This departed from previous policy in that it allowed bilateral official visits between the U.S. and Taiwan, although they are still considered to be subdiplomatic.</p>
<p>In the wake of that act, Donald Trump’s Health and Human Services secretary, Alex Azar, became the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/09/politics/alex-azar-taiwan/index.html">highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Taiwan</a> since 1979. Then in 2020, Keith Krach, undersecretary for economic growth, energy and the environment, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/17/world/asia/us-official-taiwan-china.html">visited Taiwan</a>.</p>
<p>And in April 2022, a U.S. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/19/pelosi-trip-to-taiwan-00046495">congressional delegation visited Taiwan</a>. Pelosi herself was reportedly due to visit the island that same month, but canceled after <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/08/asia/nancy-pelosi-covid-19-taiwan-us-asia-intl-hnk/index.html">testing positive for COVID-19</a>. </p>
<p>Each of these visits has provoked angry statements from Beijing.</p>
<p>A high-profile visit – even one without the public backing of the White House – would signal support to the island at a time when the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has raised questions over the international community’s commitment to protect smaller states from more powerful neighbors.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the erosion of democracy in Hong Kong has undermined China’s commitment to the idea of “one nation, two systems.” The principle, which allowed Hong Kong to maintain its economic, political and social systems while returning to the mainland after the end of British rule, had been cited as a model for reunification with Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party also plans to hold its <a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/chinas-20th-party-congress">20th congress</a> in the coming months, making the timing sensitive for a Taiwan visit from a high-profile U.S. political figure such as Pelosi.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-big-fuss-over-nancy-pelosis-possible-visit-to-taiwan-187657">article originally published</a> on July 26, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meredith Oyen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chinese fighter jets buzzed the line separating China and Taiwan just hours before the US House speaker arrived on the island.Meredith Oyen, Associate Professor of History and Asian Studies, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1876572022-07-26T18:38:19Z2022-07-26T18:38:19ZWhy the big fuss over Nancy Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476107/original/file-20220726-10636-7bnns3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C29%2C3923%2C2993&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will she visit Taiwan or not? Either way, China has made its views known.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/house-speaker-rep-nancy-pelosi-addresses-reporters-at-her-news-photo/1242046075?adppopup=true">Bill O'Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi hasn’t confirmed when – or even if – she <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/25/taiwan-china-pelosi-visit-biden">is to visit Taiwan</a>. Yet such is the sensitivity over the island’s status that reports of her possible trip have resulted in a <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-25/china-confirms-warnings-to-u-s-on-pelosis-possible-taiwan-visit">warning by China</a> of “serious consequences” and a suggestion by <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/biden-pelosi-trip-taiwan-china-military-00047031">President Joe Biden</a> that the visit was “not a good idea.” Amid the rhetoric and heightened tensions, Taiwan <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-president-oversees-drills-warship-lauds-determination-defence-2022-07-26/">is conducting military drills</a>.</p>
<p>The comments follow a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/09669099-1565-4723-86c9-84e0ca465825">report by the Financial Times</a> that Pelosi planned to take a delegation to Taiwan in August. The outlet based its report on six people “familiar with the situation”; Pelosi’s spokesperson has said she <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/nancy-pelosi-house-speaker-us-taiwan-china-visit-1726251">could neither confirm not deny</a> the reported trip.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3LqBuPEAAAAJ&hl=en">someone who has long studied</a> the U.S.’s delicate diplomatic dance over Taiwan, I understand why this reported trip has sparked reaction in both Washington and Beijing, given the current tensions in the region. It also marks the continuation of a process that has seen growing U.S. political engagement with Taiwan – much to China’s annoyance.</p>
<h2>Cutting diplomatic ties</h2>
<p>The controversy over reports of Pelosi’s potential visit stems from the “<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-us-one-china-policy-and-why-does-it-matter">one China” policy</a> – the diplomatic stance under which the U.S. recognizes China and acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China. The policy has governed U.S. relations with Taiwan for the last 40-plus years. </p>
<p>In 1979, the U.S. abandoned its previous policy of recognizing the government of Taiwan as that of all of China, instead <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/china-policy">shifting recognition</a> to the government on the mainland.</p>
<p>As part of this change, the U.S. cut off formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, with the U.S. embassy in Taiwan replaced by a nongovernmental entity called the <a href="https://www.ait.org.tw/">American Institute in Taiwan</a>.</p>
<p>The institute was a de facto embassy – though until 2002, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/107th-congress/house-bill/1646">Americans assigned to the institute</a> would have to <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2019/02/ex-diplomat-calls-for-oversight-of-us-office-in-taiwan/">resign from U.S. State Department</a> to go there, only to be rehired once their term was over. And contact between the two governments was technically unofficial.</p>
<p>As the government in Taiwan <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/taiwans-democracy-and-the-china-challenge/">pursued democracy</a> – starting from the <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/end-martial-law-important-anniversary-taiwan">lifting of martial law in 1987</a> through the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/24/opinion/taiwan-s-democratic-election.html">first fully democratic elections in 1996</a> – it shifted away from the assumption once held by governments in both China and Taiwan of eventual reunification with the mainland. The government in China, however, has never abandoned the idea of “one China” and rejects the legitimacy of Taiwanese self-government. That has made direct contact between Taiwan and U.S. representatives contentious to Chinese officials. </p>
<p>Indeed, in 1995, when Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan’s first democratically elected president, touched down in Hawaii en route to Central America, he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1999/01/10/between-china-and-the-us/b540ea0c-3bdb-4b1a-8152-8230b7a47184/">didn’t even set foot on the tarmac</a>. The U.S. State Department had already warned that the president would be refused an entry visa to the U.S., but had allowed for a brief, low-level reception in the airport lounge during refueling. Apparently feeling snubbed, Lee refused to leave the airplane.</p>
<h2>Previous political visits</h2>
<p>Two years after this incident came a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/03/31/gingrich-tells-china-us-to-defend-taiwan/e6baa8f8-58fa-4119-8c0d-c936d36e9850/">visit to Taiwan by then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly to the possible Pelosi visit, the one by Gingrich <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/03/31/gingrich-tells-china-us-to-defend-taiwan/e6baa8f8-58fa-4119-8c0d-c936d36e9850/">annoyed Beijing</a>. But it was easier for the White House to distance itself from Gingrich – he was a Republican politician visiting Taiwan in his own capacity, and clearly not on behalf of then-President Bill Clinton.</p>
<p>Pelosi’s possible visit could be different, because she is a member of the same party as President Joe Biden, and China may assume she has Biden’s blessing, despite his comments to the contrary.</p>
<p>Asked on July 20 about his views on the potential Pelosi trip, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/biden-pelosi-trip-taiwan-china-military-00047031">Biden responded</a> that the “military thinks it’s not a good idea right now.” </p>
<p>The comment echoes the <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-on-taiwan-did-he-really-commit-us-forces-to-stopping-any-invasion-by-china-an-expert-explains-why-on-balance-probably-not-176765">White House’s earlier handling of a comment by Biden</a> in which he suggested in May 2022 that the U.S. would intervene “militarily” should China invade Taiwan. Officials in the Biden administration rolled back the comment, which would have broken a long-standing policy of ambiguity over what the U.S. would do if China tried to take Taiwan by force.</p>
<p>Similarly with Pelosi, the White House is distancing itself from a position that suggests a shift in U.S.-Taiwanese relations following a period in which the U.S. had already been trying to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/01/11/after-lifting-restrictions-on-us-taiwan-relations-what-comes-next/">rethink how it interacts</a> with Taiwan.</p>
<h2>Shifting policy?</h2>
<p>In 2018, Congress passed the bipartisan <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/535">Taiwan Travel Act</a>. This departed from previous policy in that it allowed bilateral official visits between the U.S. and Taiwan, although they are still considered to be subdiplomatic.</p>
<p>In the wake of that act, Donald Trump’s Health and Human Services secretary, Alex Azar, became the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/09/politics/alex-azar-taiwan/index.html">highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Taiwan</a> since 1979. Then in 2020, Keith Krach, undersecretary for economic growth, energy and the environment, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/17/world/asia/us-official-taiwan-china.html">visited Taiwan</a>.</p>
<p>And in April 2022, a U.S. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/19/pelosi-trip-to-taiwan-00046495">congressional delegation visited Taiwan</a>. Pelosi herself was reportedly due to visit the island that same month, but canceled after <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/08/asia/nancy-pelosi-covid-19-taiwan-us-asia-intl-hnk/index.html">testing positive for COVID-19</a>. </p>
<p>Each of these visits has provoked angry statements from Beijing.</p>
<p>A high-profile visit – even one without the public backing of the White House – would signal support to the island at a time when the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has raised questions over the international community’s commitment to protect smaller states from more powerful neighbors.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the erosion of democracy in Hong Kong has undermined China’s commitment to the idea of “one nation, two systems.” The principle, which allowed Hong Kong to maintain its economic, political and social systems while returning to the mainland after the end of British rule, had been cited as a model for reunification with Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party also plans to hold its <a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/chinas-20th-party-congress">20th congress</a> in the coming months, making the timing sensitive for a Taiwan visit from a high-profile U.S. political figure such as Pelosi.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187657/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meredith Oyen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The White House has distanced itself from the US House speaker’s potential visit to Taiwan. But does it still signal a shift in policy over diplomatic ties with the island?Meredith Oyen, Associate Professor of History and Asian Studies, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1858222022-06-25T13:43:43Z2022-06-25T13:43:43ZFirst bipartisan gun control bill in a generation signed into law: 3 essential reads on what it means<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470892/original/file-20220625-26-ntg2f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C26%2C5955%2C3961&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden signs the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act into law.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/first-lady-jill-biden-looks-on-as-us-president-joe-biden-news-photo/1241520942?adppopup=true">Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden signed into law on June 25, 2022, a bipartisan bill that is the first significant change in federal gun legislation in nearly three decades. </p>
<p>Known as the <a href="https://www.murphy.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/bipartisan_safer_communities_act_text.pdf">Bipartisan Safer Communities Act</a>, the bill was written in response to the shootings in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/14/nyregion/buffalo-shooting">Buffalo, New York</a>, and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/month-uvalde-massacre-revelations-continue-compound-communitys-grief/story?id=85587894">Uvalde, Texas</a>, and sped through a usually slow-moving Congress.</p>
<p>Though the bill’s limited scope has left many disappointed, it does tighten up gun control in a number of key areas. </p>
<p>As the bill was making its way through Congress, The Conversation published a number of articles looking at its provisions and how effective they might be in addressing America’s gun violence crisis.</p>
<h2>1. Support for states’ red flag laws</h2>
<p>Among the elements of the new law is support for states to pass what are called “red flag laws.”</p>
<p>LaGrange College political science professor <a href="https://www.lagrange.edu/Faculty-Directory/Dr.%20John-Turess.html">John A. Tures</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/red-flag-laws-saved-7-300-americans-from-gun-deaths-in-2020-alone-and-could-have-saved-11-400-more-185009">writes that these laws</a> allow police to take guns from people deemed a threat to themselves or others and bar them buying firearms. </p>
<p><iframe id="W8RK4" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/W8RK4/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>To determine if red flag laws reduce gun deaths overall, Tures examined <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/firearm.htm">states’ firearm death rates</a>, in light of whether they had a red flag law or not, in each of three years – 2018, 2019 and 2020.</p>
<p>On average, states with red flag laws in 2019 and 2020 had significantly lower firearm death rates than states without them. In 2018, the average death rates for both groups were closer, but states with red flag laws still had a meaningfully lower rate. </p>
<p>“In 2020, if there were no red flag laws, I estimate that 52,530 Americans would have died in gun deaths. The number actually recorded was 45,222, indicating red flag laws saved 7,308 American lives that year,” Tures writes. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/red-flag-laws-saved-7-300-americans-from-gun-deaths-in-2020-alone-and-could-have-saved-11-400-more-185009">Red flag laws saved 7,300 Americans from gun deaths in 2020 alone – and could have saved 11,400 more</a>
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<h2>2. What is the ‘boyfriend loophole’?</h2>
<p>One of the sticking points in negotiations over the bill that was eventually resolved was the “boyfriend loophole.” </p>
<p>Under current federal legislation, Michigan State University criminal justice professor <a href="https://cj.msu.edu/directory/zeoli-april.html">April M. Zeoli </a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/would-closing-the-boyfriend-loophole-in-gun-legislation-save-lives-heres-what-the-research-says-185481">explains</a> intimate partner relationships are defined only as those in which two people are or were married, live or lived together as a couple, or have a child together. </p>
<p>People who were in a dating relationship are largely excluded from this definition. </p>
<p>As a result, Zeoli writes, “dating partners are exempt from federal laws that prohibit those convicted of domestic violence misdemeanor crimes, or those who are under domestic violence restraining orders, from buying or possessing a firearm.” </p>
<p>This is what is referred to as the “boyfriend loophole.”</p>
<p>Research suggests that when a violent male partner has access to a gun, the risk of murder to the female partner increases fivefold. </p>
<p>With Biden signing the bill into law, the wording extends the ban to “those who have or have had a continuing relationship of a romantic or intimate nature.” </p>
<p>Though the bill will close the loophole for those convicted of domestic violence misdemeanor crimes, it does not cover restraining order laws.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-closing-the-boyfriend-loophole-in-gun-legislation-save-lives-heres-what-the-research-says-185481">Will closing the 'boyfriend loophole' in gun legislation save lives? Here's what the research says</a>
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<h2>3. Does the law protect schools?</h2>
<p>The new law would provide US$1 billion to help schools put in place comprehensive strategies to create safe and healthy learning environments, including $300 million to increase access to mental health services. </p>
<p>Part of the strategy involves risk assessment. </p>
<p>In the years since the Columbine shooting in 1999, researchers and federal law enforcement agencies have studied school shootings and developed risk assessments to gauge the likelihood of actual violence by a young person identified as a possible risk.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.newark.rutgers.edu/about-us/have-you-met-rutgers-newark/paul-boxer">Paul Boxer</a>, a Rutgers University - Newark psychology professor, explains, <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-reduce-school-shootings-183965">the assessments are conducted by professionals that include police officers, teachers and mental health counselors</a>.</p>
<p>Together, they determine a young person’s risk for violence.</p>
<p>“These teams may not be able to prevent every possible incident,” Boxer cautions. “Still, this sort of approach is critical to improving the process of identifying and stopping potential shooters overall.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-reduce-school-shootings-183965">5 ways to reduce school shootings</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
After years of gridlock, Congress passed significant gun control legislation for the first time in the last 30 years.Howard Manly, Race + Equity Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1843422022-06-07T13:31:40Z2022-06-07T13:31:40ZHow a public hearing is different from an investigation – and what that means for the Jan. 6 committee<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467251/original/file-20220606-13060-6986u0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C0%2C8155%2C5457&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pro-Trump protesters approach the entrance to the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/asset_images/467251/edit?content_id=184342">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Thursday, June 9, the <a href="https://january6th.house.gov/">House Select Committee</a> to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the United States Capitol holds the first of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-donald-trump-government-and-politics-election-2020-presidential-elections-181597f4bcdb646eae9351bad301bd3a">several public hearings</a>.</p>
<p>The committee aims to lay out the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/05/us-capitol-attack-televised-hearing-january-6">results of months of investigative work</a> into the involvement of President Donald Trump and his political allies in the 2021 insurrection and other attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. </p>
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<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/how-a-public-hearing-is-different-from-an-investigation-and-what-that-means-for-the-jan-6-committee-184342&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>Committee members and staff <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/04/jan-6-committee-set-make-its-case-public-with-prime-time-hearing/">reviewed more than 125,000 documents and conducted more than 1,000 interviews and depositions</a> with key witnesses, including high-profile Trump allies.</p>
<p>Blockbuster hearings are fascinating and even fun; they dominate the political and cultural conversation and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp8kFqycfFM">prompt movie stars to show up in “Saturday Night Live” cold opens</a>. But what do they actually accomplish? </p>
<p><a href="https://claireleavitt.com/">I am a scholar of Congressional oversight</a> and, in 2019, spent a year working on the Democratic majority staff of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform. The question I field most often from curious students and peers is a simple one: What do these hearings do? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467248/original/file-20220606-20-60gofv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of men and women, looking down at notes as they sit at a high table, all in a row." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467248/original/file-20220606-20-60gofv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467248/original/file-20220606-20-60gofv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467248/original/file-20220606-20-60gofv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467248/original/file-20220606-20-60gofv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467248/original/file-20220606-20-60gofv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467248/original/file-20220606-20-60gofv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467248/original/file-20220606-20-60gofv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Chairman Rep. Bennie Thompson delivers remarks during a January 6th committee business meeting on Capitol Hill, March 28, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chairman-rep-bennie-thompson-delivers-remarks-during-a-news-photo/1239592215?adppopup=true">Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Culmination of the process</h2>
<p>First, a crucial distinction: Investigations are meant to acquire information, hearings are meant to present it. </p>
<p>While the committee’s public hearings will reveal new information about the insurrection to the American public, it is far less likely that the committee itself will learn something new. </p>
<p>The committee has not yet provided a list of witnesses, but former Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff Marc Short, conservative lawyer and former Pence adviser J. Michael Luttig and former Acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/04/jan-6-committee-set-make-its-case-public-with-prime-time-hearing/">are likely to appear</a>. Recorded testimony of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner may be showcased. </p>
<p>High-profile hearings tend to be choreographed affairs, presenting a tightly woven narrative to the public. By now, most of the investigative work has already been done, and public hearings are best viewed as the culmination of the process. </p>
<p>This is not to say that public hearings are substantively unimportant. The upcoming hearings will outline, in detail, what happened in the weeks after the 2020 election and on the day of the attack. They will show the public “how one thing led to another, how one line of effort to overturn the election led to another and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/adam-schiff-justice-department-mark-meadows-dan-scavino-deeply-troubling-face-the-nation/">ultimately led to terrible violence</a>,” as committee member Adam Schiff, a California Democrat, put it on June 5, 2022. </p>
<p>Official documents and witness testimony presented at committee hearings are compiled and maintained by the House and Senate. Committees publish most transcripts of public hearings. This public record serves as an important baseline and cache of information for future investigators, both inside and outside of Congress, and ensures that any member of the public has easy access to the most significant evidence. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467256/original/file-20220606-12-10i1yj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Former President Donald Trump in a black coat, standing in front of many American flags, pointing his gloved finger at something." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467256/original/file-20220606-12-10i1yj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467256/original/file-20220606-12-10i1yj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467256/original/file-20220606-12-10i1yj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467256/original/file-20220606-12-10i1yj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467256/original/file-20220606-12-10i1yj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467256/original/file-20220606-12-10i1yj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467256/original/file-20220606-12-10i1yj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Defeated President Donald Trump at the rally in the nation’s capital on Jan. 6 to protest the ratification of President-elect Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory in the 2020 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-greets-the-crowd-at-the-stop-the-news-photo/1294918247?adppopup=true">Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>‘Just the facts’ approach</h2>
<p>More broadly, public hearings establish a shared foundation of facts that can inform short- and long-term debates – around the dinner table, in the media, in Congress and among scholars – over how major events should be interpreted. </p>
<p>Hearings also serve as a kind of preemptive justification for specific legal and legislative actions that may follow the investigation. For example, if the committee does end up <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/10/us/politics/jan-6-trump-criminal-referral.html">recommending criminal charges against Trump and his allies</a>, the hearings have already explained the legitimacy of these charges to the public. If the committee makes <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/05/january-6-committee-electoral-college-reforms">legislative recommendations to reform elections</a>, the public will have a better idea of why these changes are necessary.</p>
<p>The big question is whether these hearings will convince anybody of anything. </p>
<p>Political scientist Paul Light has said that the most effective investigative hearings are the ones that focus on careful, thorough and objective fact-finding rather than “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-the-house-should-investigate-the-trump-administration/">bright lights, perp walks and brutal questioning</a>.” </p>
<p>The reality is that hearings also provide members of Congress valuable opportunities to build their own “brands” by <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1350218">staking out clear positions on controversial issues</a>, often by <a href="http://fordhamlawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Chafetz-November-7.pdf">using dramatic and overwrought language</a>. These “presentational styles” <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/representational-style-in-congress/AD32D8ABA29E78C048B41077D64BDD9A">affect constituents’ views about how well they are being represented</a>. </p>
<p>Members recognize this dynamic themselves: In 2019, Rep. Thomas Massie, Republican of Kentucky, referred to the House Oversight Committee on which he served as the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/new-members-areprepared-%20battle-house-oversight-committee-n963751">“theater committee,” and maintained</a> that “you could make a grandma feel bad about making cookies for her grandkids if she’s sitting in front of you.” </p>
<p>Political science research has also established that investigative hearings are very useful weapons in the partisan wars: Inquiries targeting the president and the executive branch <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022381613001448">can significantly diminish the president’s public approval</a>. </p>
<p>Thus, members on an investigative committee often find themselves facing contradictory options: They want the committee’s work to appear legitimate to the American people, but they also don’t want to pass up opportunities to burnish their own reputations and go viral on social media.</p>
<p>The Jan. 6th committee appears to have opted for a just-the-facts-ma’am approach to the public hearings. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/23/capitol-attack-panel-public-hearings-trump">Committee lawyers will do the bulk of the witness questioning</a>, deliberately making the witnesses’ information the focus rather than the personalities and rhetoric of the committee members. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467250/original/file-20220606-13103-f3rhii.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired woman carrying a water bottle and with a bag slung over her should, leaves a building and walks on snow-covered pavement.." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467250/original/file-20220606-13103-f3rhii.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467250/original/file-20220606-13103-f3rhii.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467250/original/file-20220606-13103-f3rhii.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467250/original/file-20220606-13103-f3rhii.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467250/original/file-20220606-13103-f3rhii.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467250/original/file-20220606-13103-f3rhii.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467250/original/file-20220606-13103-f3rhii.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stephanie Grisham, former press secretary for former President Donald Trump, departs on Jan. 5, 2022, after participating in a deposition meeting on Capitol Hill with the House select committee investigating the January 6th U.S. Capitol attack.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/stephanie-grisham-former-press-secretary-for-former-news-photo/1362996682?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Aiming for credibility</h2>
<p>Committee members’ personalities will likely not play as big a role here as they ordinarily would. That’s especially important to the current panel’s credibility, considering its origins. </p>
<p>In May 2021, the Senate killed legislation to establish an independent commission to investigate the attacks that <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mitch-mcconnell-riots-terrorist-attacks-donald-trump-capitol-siege-ac4cf46ad3e0617a045eb926d21945eb">would have been modeled on the 9/11 Commission</a>. The House instead established a select committee, with the support of only two Republicans. </p>
<p>Select committees are <a href="https://history.house.gov/Education/Fact-Sheets/Committees-Fact-Sheet2/#:%7E:text=Select%20committees%20are%20created%20by,studies%20rather%20than%20consider%20measures.">established by Congress to investigate a specific issue</a> and exist for a finite time period. Both Democrats and Republicans ordinarily serve on select committees, each appointed by their respective party leaders.</p>
<p>However, in an unprecedented move, Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi vetoed two of Republican leader Kevin McCarthy’s picks, Trump allies Jim Jordan of Ohio and Jim Banks of Indiana, arguing that their participation would jeopardize the “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/21/politics/nancy-pelosi-rejects-republicans-from-committee/index.html">integrity of the investigation</a>.” McCarthy responded by refusing to appoint any Republicans to the panel. </p>
<p>Two Republicans, Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney and Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger, agreed to serve as Pelosi appointees on the nine-member committee. Pelosi’s decision <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/03/trump-january-6-hearings-republicans">delegitimized the committee’s work in the eyes of Republican stalwarts</a>. But the Democratic speaker’s appointment of these two Republicans also made it possible for all members of the committee to work together collaboratively. Pelosi chose actual bipartisanship against the mere appearance of it. </p>
<p>And she may not even have had to sacrifice appearance: A staunch conservative like Liz Cheney and an outspoken progressive like Adam Schiff working alongside one another, I believe, presents a compelling picture of bipartisan cooperation to the larger swath of the public that doesn’t pay close attention to politics. </p>
<p>It is no accident that Cheney was made vice-chair of the committee and regularly appears alongside Democratic chairman Bennie Thompson of Mississippi at press conferences and committee meetings. There is <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/02/house-jan-6-committee-popular-republicans-526092">broad public support for the Jan. 6th investigation</a> even as <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-are-moving-on-from-jan-6-even-if-congress-hasnt/">public attention to the attacks themselves has begun to wane</a>. </p>
<p>Pelosi may have gambled that having prominent and outspoken Trump allies on the committee would do more harm than good, since there is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00522.x">some evidence to suggest</a> that negative partisan attacks can diminish overall political engagement among the public. Public reception of the hearings will demonstrate whether Pelosi’s gambit paid off.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184342/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Leavitt has received funding from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) and the Levin Center for Oversight and Democracy. </span></em></p>On the eve of public hearings held by Congress’ January 6 investigative committee, a former oversight staffer for the House of Representatives explains what such hearings aim to accomplish.Claire Leavitt, Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science and Policy Studies, Grinnell CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1830212022-05-13T21:39:17Z2022-05-13T21:39:17ZEnforcing unprecedented subpoenas for GOP lawmakers turns on complex legal precedent going back centuries<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463062/original/file-20220513-24-oa9h3o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C171%2C5430%2C3449&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy attempt to defy subpoena?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/house-minority-leader-kevin-mccarthy-attends-at-a-news-news-photo/1237857339?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>An attempt to force five Republican lawmakers into providing information to the House panel probing the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol is unlikely to end with the <a href="https://january6th.house.gov/news/press-releases/select-committee-subpoenas-five-members-congress">subpoenas</a> issued May 12, 2022.</p>
<p>House Minority Leader <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jan-6-investigation-mccarthy-subpoena-2312def9243c505e22ce9d0f2f152db9">Kevin McCarthy and the four other Republican holdouts</a> have yet to say if they will comply with, defy or challenge the order. But the question of whether a committee can subpoena a sitting member of Congress is almost certain to be <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/12/mccarthy-jordan-jan-6-subpoena-00032115">headed to the courts</a>. If it does, Congress’ authority will be determined in part by a little-known provision of the U.S. Constitution called the “<a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-1/section-6/clause-1/">speech or debate” clause</a>. </p>
<p>This clause protects <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/408/606/">legislators and their staff</a> from liability for doing things like giving floor speeches, voting on legislation, and conducting investigations. </p>
<p>It would not be the first time that this provision of the Constitution has been invoked during a congressional inquiry. In fact, the clause has played a central role in determining the boundaries of Congress’ constitutional authority in the separation of powers system.</p>
<h2>What is the speech or debate clause?</h2>
<p>The origins of the speech or debate clause stemmed from the kind of practices that limited the freedom of U.K. parliamentarians. </p>
<p>During the 16th and 17th centuries, the British monarchy often used the threat of criminal prosecution to intimidate legislators and prevent them from acting against the crown. King James II, for example, ordered the prosecution of the speaker of the House of Commons for publicizing alleged plots between James II and the King of France to reinstate Catholicism as England’s official religion. Concerns over the king’s actions led Parliament to place a clause in the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/british-history/english-bill-of-rights#:%7E:text=The%20English%20Bill%20of%20Rights%20created%20a%20constitutional%20monarchy%20in,people%20were%20given%20individual%20rights.">English Bill of Rights</a> that prevented prosecution for legislative acts.</p>
<p><a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI_S6_C1_1_3/">With this history in mind</a>, the drafters of the U.S. Constitution wanted to adopt similar language to <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/408/501/">make sure</a> Congress was independent and could operate without threats from the president.</p>
<p>As a result, Article 1 of the U.S. Constitution grants members of Congress legal immunity from liability for any speech or debate. In other words, the Constitution protects members of Congress from having to worry about being sued for expressing themselves while doing their jobs. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court has repeatedly recognized that the provision not only protects speech and debate, but <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/412/306/">extends to</a> all actions related to legitimate legislative functions. </p>
<p>The protection, however, <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R42648.pdf">does not extend to</a> speech or debate that is only incidentally related to legislators’ official duties, such as addresses made outside of Congress or remarks in press releases.</p>
<h2>Why is the clause important?</h2>
<p>Because the clause extends to all legitimate legislative functions, “speech or debate” issues come up in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/speech-or-debate-clause-invoked-in-investigations-of-house-members/2011/01/16/ABmcCVR_story.html">virtually every congressional investigation</a>. </p>
<p>One of the <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/103/168/">earliest Supreme Court decisions</a> involving the clause was an 1880 case in which real estate broker Hallett Kilbourn refused to testify in a House investigation of the bankruptcy of a bank that held government bonds. The Court’s decision in the case centered on whether Kilbourn could sue the House of Representatives for holding him in contempt. In its opinion, the Supreme Court found that the speech or debate clause prevented such a lawsuit.</p>
<p>Other historical speech or debate cases have addressed the extent to which a legislator’s actions on the floor of Congress could be used as <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/383/169/">evidence of conspiracy</a> and whether committees have the <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/421/491/">authority to subpoena bank records</a> to further congressional investigations. In general, courts have consistently used the speech or debate clause to protect the ability of members of Congress to do their jobs.</p>
<p>All of this litigation has helped define the parameters of what it means for Congress to engage in constitutionally legitimate actions and the limits of congressional power.</p>
<p>Precedent in speech or debate cases has also played a key role in legal battles involving congressional investigations into the Trump presidency as well as the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.</p>
<p>In 2019, the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/19-715_febh.pdf">used</a> speech or debate jurisprudence when evaluating the constitutionality of House subpoenas seeking President Donald Trump’s financial records. </p>
<p>Additionally, the clause came up in <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/rnc-fundraising-records.pdf">recent litigation</a> between the Republican National Committee (RNC) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The Jan. 6 committee subpoenaed Salesforce.com for information regarding how the Trump campaign used Salesforce to spread false statements about the 2020 election. Salesforce and the RNC challenged the constitutionality of the subpoena in court. In response, Speaker Pelosi and House Democrats argued that the speech or debate clause prohibited the entire lawsuit. In an opinion issued on May 1, 2022, the D.C. District Court sided with the Democrats and threw out the litigation on the grounds that the Jan. 6 committee is serving a valid legislative purpose.</p>
<h2>What happens now?</h2>
<p>It now may be the Republicans’ turn to invoke the clause. </p>
<p>If the five subpoenaed members of Congress refuse to comply, then Congress could seek to hold them in contempt. That would <a href="https://theconversation.com/steve-bannon-is-held-in-criminal-contempt-of-congress-pushing-key-question-over-presidential-power-to-the-courts-170426">likely push the matter to the courts</a>.</p>
<p>Yet there is a catch. Because speech or debate provides legislators with immunity from both civil and criminal lawsuits, the clause prevents courts from hearing certain types of cases. And even when immunity does not apply directly, the clause <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R45043.pdf">may grant</a> members with protections against the introduction of evidence or having to testify about certain actions if they relate to a legitimate legislative purpose.</p>
<p>It is difficult to know precisely how the clause will apply in the case of the five Republican lawmakers – there is <a href="https://time.com/6138561/jan-6-committee-non-complying-lawmakers/">little history</a> of a committee issuing subpoenas to members of Congress outside of ethics investigations.</p>
<p>Exclusively relying on the clause as a legal argument to challenge the subpoenas <a href="https://www.bloomberglaw.com/bloomberglawnews/us-law-week/XB366AR8000000?bna_news_filter=us-law-week#jcite">would likely fail in the courts</a>, as <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/13/why-the-jan-6-panel-bet-its-legal-hand-against-the-house-gop-00032228">courts have been unsympathetic</a> to similar arguments in the past.</p>
<p>But invoking the clause might at the very least prolong the legal battle over whether the Jan. 6 panel can force lawmakers into giving evidence and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jan-6-investigation-mccarthy-subpoena-2312def9243c505e22ce9d0f2f152db9">buy the subpoenaed legislators time</a>, perhaps even pushing the issue beyond the 2022 midterm elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183021/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The views expressed in this article are solely the views of the author and not the Carl Levin Center for Oversight and Democracy.</span></em></p>Framers of the Constitution put in a clause giving lawmakers immunity from liability for any ‘speech or debate.’ Interpreting it may be key in the battle to get some Republicans to testify.Jennifer Selin, Co-director, Washington Office, Carl Levin Center for Oversight and Democracy, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1711972021-11-04T20:35:04Z2021-11-04T20:35:04ZLessons from the Virginia governor’s race: Pay attention to voters’ concerns instead of making it all about national politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430335/original/file-20211104-22514-hy0vww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C607%2C5589%2C3140&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Exit political stage, heading to the right.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/virginia-democratic-gubernatorial-candidate-former-virginia-news-photo/1236308344?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I teach political speech writing. My students know that earlier this year I served on a committee that wrote the University of Virginia’s <a href="https://news.virginia.edu/content/statement-committee-free-expression-and-free-inquiry">statement on free speech and free inquiry</a>, which stated that “All views, beliefs, and perspectives deserve to be articulated and heard free from interference.” </p>
<p>I’m also a conservative who recently co-taught a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2020/12/28/liberal-conservative-teach-2020-election-emerge-friends-column/4027231001/">2020 elections class</a> with a liberal colleague – and we both managed to survive. In my class, the mainly liberal students know they can speak freely about what’s important to them. Being open about your political views is important – but so too is listening generously to those of others.</p>
<p>They’ve written speeches about climate change, defunding the police, voting reforms, the Texas abortion law, misinformation on social media, electric cars, education policy, oil pipelines, critical race theory, China’s oppression of the Uyghurs, a universal basic income, and even the need for more napping during the day. </p>
<p>Across the board, they want to hear all sides of an argument and decide for themselves. They don’t want to be told what to believe. They’re taking speech writing because they want to learn how to make a good case in the face of a hostile audience.</p>
<p>And what I heard in the runup to the Nov. 2 elections was that students are increasingly worried about the job market and the economy they’ll be walking into upon graduation; they are concerned about rising crime rates in Charlottesville, where they attend college; and they wonder if they’ll be able to freely express their opinions – left or right – here at the university.</p>
<p>So it was no surprise to me that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2021/exit-polls-virginia-governor/">exit polls of Virginia voters</a> this week showed that the economy and education were voters’ top concerns, just as they are for many of my 20-something students. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Former U.S. President Barack Obama fist-bumping Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former U.S. President Barack Obama campaigns with Democratic gubernatorial candidate amd former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe on Oct. 23, 2021, in Richmond, Virginia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-u-s-president-barack-obama-campaigns-with-democratic-news-photo/1348284212?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Old playbook, new circumstances</h2>
<p>No matter what subject my students are writing speeches on – from critical race theory to electric cars – they want to take on all sides of an argument.</p>
<p>Similarly, many voters wanted to hear both candidates’ views on “kitchen table” issues – such as expanding job opportunities, ensuring public safety, and reforming education – in the closing weeks before the election. But that wasn’t always what voters got. Instead, they were often presented not with the issues, but with heavyweight political endorsements.</p>
<p>Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe brought in one Democratic star after another: President Joe Biden, first lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Barack Obama, voting rights activist Stacey Abrams and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi all made appearances for the former governor.</p>
<p>On one hand, McAuliffe’s playbook has worked for others in the past. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/25/big-name-democrats-are-campaigning-virginias-race-governor-does-that-help-candidates/">Research</a> by <a href="https://web.s.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=15354738&AN=110210185&h=Txy82Hlx3DObnSSmpvmLKuXTT6TJDGZL2PSMHQh22AB0B3I2HfHD%2f6Lk49nBxa6rkj6tMNQKRNeYdVeeGbOS5w%3d%3d&crl=c&resultNs=AdminWebAuth&resultLocal=ErrCrlNotAuth&crlhashurl=login.aspx%3fdirect%3dtrue%26profile%3dehost%26scope%3dsite%26authtype%3dcrawler%26jrnl%3d15354738%26AN%3d110210185">Rob Mellen Jr. and Kathleen Searles</a> into presidential campaign appearances during midterm elections between 1986 and 2006 showed that visits by the campaigner-in-chief can boost turnout and campaign donations for candidates – but only if the president is popular.</p>
<p>The problem in Virginia was that according to an <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/579440-poll-more-democrats-in-new-poll-want-someone-other-than-biden-as-partys">NPR-PBS Newshour-Marist poll</a> that came out the day before the election, a plurality of Democrats no longer want Joe Biden at the top of the ticket in 2024. Add to that Biden’s collapsing approval ratings, which sank lower every week in October, according to <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/index.html">Reuters</a>.</p>
<p>It seems McAuliffe didn’t realize the albatross effect Biden was having on his own candidacy. Or the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state_of_the_union/">disconnect</a> right now between voters and those stars campaigning with him.</p>
<p>In contrast to McAuliffe, Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin talked early and often about his “<a href="https://www.youngkinforgovernor.com/game-plan">day one game plan</a>,” which focused on specific actions he’d take on the economy, public safety and education – the quality-of-life issues voters wanted to hear about. He hit the airwaves with TV ads comparing his policies with McAuliffe’s record and made his best case.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Glenn Youngkin at a campaign rally with a sign next to him that says " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Winning candidate Glenn Youngkin made the concerns of parents a central part of his campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-gubernatorial-candidate-glenn-youngkin-speaks-news-photo/1347542247?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Succession stymied</h2>
<p>McAuliffe also faced an issue unique to Virginia that dampened his chances of success. Virginia is the only state in the nation that legally bars governors from a second successive term. Virginia law changed in <a href="https://vpm.org/listen/articles/6165/two-term-virginia-governors-rare-but-not-unprecedented">1851</a>, after several governors – including Patrick Henry – had served two successive terms in office. So from 1851 onward, the state has had only one-term governors – with one exception, in 1974, when former Democratic governor Mills Godwin waited four years and came back as a Republican. </p>
<p>McAuliffe, who held the governor’s job from 2014 to 2018, was trying to be the second exception. There’s a reason <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Virginia">former Virginia governors Chuck Robb, Mark Warner, George Allen and Tim Kaine</a> all went on to become U.S. senators from the commonwealth instead of returning later as second-term governors. Virginians like a fresh face in the governor’s office, and this election was no exception.</p>
<p>The last time Virginia had a Republican governor was 2009, and a decade of one-party control of the governor’s mansion has led to a rising sense of frustration among voters – including <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2021/exit-polls-virginia-governor/">suburban independents</a> who swung away from Democrats this week – concerned with the stagnation of Virginia’s economy, the perceived lack of support for police and changes to parts of the educational curriculum in Virginia’s K-12 schools. </p>
<p>Instead of making a strong case for addressing these issues, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/30/politics/terry-mcauliffe-donald-trump-virginia-governor-race/index.html">McAuliffe campaign preferred to bring Trump into everything</a>. In fact, at one McAuliffe rally in late October, Joe Biden mentioned Donald Trump <a href="https://nypost.com/2021/10/26/biden-says-trump-24-times-in-virginia-stump-for-mcauliffe/">24 times</a> in a single speech. </p>
<p>That strategy didn’t, by and large, connect with the concerns of working-class voters – from truck drivers dealing with hikes in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/virginia-general-assembly-approves-higher-gas-tax-speed-cameras-and-cellphone-ban/2020/03/08/cb688356-5fbf-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html">gas tax</a> to urban residents worried about the <a href="https://www.nbc12.com/2021/06/07/homicides-virginia-hit-highest-levels-two-decades/">20-year high</a> in the murder rate to parents upset about what’s been going on in Loudoun County schools, where <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2021/10/29/loudoun-county-school-board-assault-virginia-governor-race/6179600001/">USA Today</a> reports that school board meetings “have spiraled into violence, accusations of student sexual assault are dominating headlines, and some parents have sued the school board over the district’s equity initiatives.” </p>
<p>The turning point came when McAuliffe stunned a debate audience with his <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/mcauliffe-says-parents-shouldn-t-173500644.html">statement</a>, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach,” not realizing that there are likely far more voters who consider themselves parents first – and members of a political party second. When he failed to disavow a Department of Justice <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-addresses-violent-threats-against-school-officials-and-teachers">memo</a> labeling parents at school board meetings as “criminals,” there was no going back. His silence spoke volumes to everyone watching.</p>
<p>These days, it takes guts to speak up for what you believe in.</p>
<p>My sense is that there’s a growing number of Americans willing to stand up and courageously challenge the age in which we live. From what I’m seeing and hearing in just one college classroom, I have no doubt more brave young people – on both sides of the aisle – will make their case for positive change in the years to come.</p>
<p>Isn’t that what elections are all about?</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171197/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I am a former speechwriter for President George HW Bush, and a former Deputy Director of Communications at the Republican National Committee. My husband and I know the Youngkin family, as our daughters went to the same high school.</span></em></p>A former speechwriter for President George H.W. Bush watched the Virginia governor’s race through the eyes of her students at the University of Virginia, whose concerns were shared by most voters.Mary Kate Cary, Adjunct Professor, Department of Politics and Senior Fellow, UVA's Miller Center, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1654162021-08-03T18:27:26Z2021-08-03T18:27:26ZDoes a Trump endorsement make a difference? Yes, but not the way a candidate hopes it will<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414325/original/file-20210803-15-3nm9mg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C16%2C3764%2C2594&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Dean Heller, right, and President Donald Trump, who endorsed him, at a rally on Sept. 20, 2018, in Las Vegas. Heller lost the reelection.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-looks-on-as-u-s-sen-dean-heller-news-photo/1037056040?adppopup=true">Ethan Miller/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former President Donald Trump may see himself as a winner, but the candidates he endorses don’t always win. In fact, his endorsement often helps the opponents of his candidates.</p>
<p>That was true in the 2018 midterm elections, and a similar effect could happen in the upcoming 2022 midterms. One early indication: In late July, Republican and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jake-ellzey-texas-congress-runoff-6th-district-susan-wright/">Trump endorsee Susan Wright lost to fellow Republican Jake Ellzey</a> in the special election runoff in Texas’ 6th Congressional District. </p>
<p>The failure of Trump’s endorsement to propel Wright to victory has raised questions among political observers about <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/07/28/donald-trumps-endorsement-record-takes-a-hit-with-jake-ellzeys-win-over-susan-wright/">the sway the former president has in GOP politics</a>. The loss led to <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-team-blames-conservative-failed-endorsment-17aa2dd1-b4be-4ca7-beeb-c74d1d472a09.html">Trump’s inner circle</a> casting about for whom to blame.</p>
<p>While some Trump allies were quick to <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-team-blames-conservative-failed-endorsment-17aa2dd1-b4be-4ca7-beeb-c74d1d472a09.html">point fingers at internal party divisions</a> and Republican infighting, <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-team-blames-conservative-failed-endorsment-17aa2dd1-b4be-4ca7-beeb-c74d1d472a09.html">Trump himself blamed Democratic voters</a> for Susan Wright’s loss. </p>
<p>Trump’s endorsement may have mobilized Democrats and independents, who ultimately voted for <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/29/jake-ellzey-donald-trump-texas-6-congressional-seat/">Wright’s GOP opponent, Jason Ellzey</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12284">Our work</a>, and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/711407">work of other political scientists</a>, suggests that endorsement backlash frequently occurs in contemporary politics. As political scientists, we observed the prolific tweeting of President Trump and wanted to know whether his endorsements of congressional candidates affected their campaigns and the campaigns of their opponents. </p>
<p>We found that during the 2018 midterm elections, President Trump’s endorsements helped Republicans he endorsed raise money, but also helped their Democratic opponents raise money.</p>
<p>Ultimately Trump’s endorsement was more detrimental than helpful. It led to an increased vote share going to the Democratic opponent of the candidate Trump endorsed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi at a lectern in front of American flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414328/original/file-20210803-13-cj13z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democrat Nancy Pelosi became Speaker of the House in 2018 when the GOP, including Trump-endorsed candidates, lost control of the House in the midterm elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/house-minority-leader-nancy-pelosi-holds-a-news-conference-news-photo/1058677340?adppopup=true">Zach Gibson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘backlash effect’</h2>
<p>Trump endorsed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12284">80 different congressional candidates</a> in the 2018 midterm elections. He tweeted 134 endorsements to 45 congressional candidates and endorsed another 35 congressional candidates at 47 in-person campaign events. </p>
<p>Our research looked at campaign fundraising, turnout and vote share for candidates whom Trump endorsed in the 2018 midterm elections as well as their opponents. </p>
<p>While presidents often campaign for and support candidates for the House and Senate in midterm elections, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3162/036298007782398468">most of that previous activity occurred in person and at the local level</a> rather than on Twitter or some other national platform. Previous presidents also haven’t been nearly as generous in their endorsements as Trump. </p>
<p>President Barack Obama, for instance, endorsed 16 congressional candidates in 2010 and eight candidates in 2014. All those endorsements were given at local events rather than on social media. While <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Donald_Trump">Trump has already endorsed 22 candidates leading up to the 2022 election</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Joe_Biden">President Joe Biden has endorsed only two</a>. </p>
<p>Trump endorsements did affect the races: Our research found that Trump-endorsed candidates raised more money from more donors immediately following the president’s endorsement.</p>
<p>But an endorsement from President Trump also benefited the endorsed candidate’s Democratic opponent. Democrats took advantage of Trump’s unpopularity among Democrats and independents and <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/15/donald-trump-endorses-dallas-congressman-pete-sessions-re-election/">made sure that those voters also knew about the endorsement</a>. And while endorsed candidates raised more money, their opponents also raised more money from more donors immediately following the president’s endorsement. </p>
<p>Opponents of Trump-endorsed candidates also benefited from increased mobilization at the polls. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A newspaper headline that reads 'In a major upset against a candidate backed by Donald Trump, Jake Ellzey wins runoff for Fort Worth-area congressional seat.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414334/original/file-20210803-23-1xx824z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Texas Tribune headline on a story about Jake Ellzey’s runoff victory over a Trump-backed candidate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/27/susan-wright-jake-ellzey-texas-6-congressional-seat/">Screenshot, Texas Tribune</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Races with a presidential endorsement had higher turnout than comparable races without an endorsement – but that didn’t help the endorsed candidate. Instead, Trump’s 2018 endorsements decreased the endorsed candidate’s vote share by almost 2.5 percentage points compared with candidates in similar districts who did not receive Trump’s endorsement. </p>
<p>Without Trump’s endorsement, Republicans likely would have won control of <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_7th_Congressional_District">Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District in 2018</a> rather than having to wait until 2020 for <a href="https://www.startribune.com/michelle-fischbach-ousts-collin-peterson-in-minnesota-s-seventh-district/572948862/">Republican Michelle Fischbach to defeat incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson</a>. Likewise, without <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2018/10/31/macarthur-kim-debate-trump-policies-but-steer-clear-of-trump-676331">Trump’s endorsement of New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur in 2018</a>, our estimates suggest he would have won reelection by about 1.2 percentage points <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-jersey-house-district-3">rather than losing by 1.3 percentage points</a>. </p>
<p>Ultimately, we found that Trump’s endorsements cost Republicans 16 seats – exactly 20% of the 80 candidates he endorsed. That represented 12 in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate. </p>
<h2>Not just Trump</h2>
<p>Other research has also shown that the engagement of national political figures at the local level appears to mobilize supporters and opponents alike. </p>
<p>Visits from presidential and vice presidential candidates in 2016 increased local donations both to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/18/trump-is-going-back-holding-rallies-he-might-be-helping-biden/">candidates who were visited and their opponents</a>. Notably, Trump campaign rallies in 2016 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/711407">increased donations from the local area</a> to Hillary Clinton’s campaign more than to his own. </p>
<p>These findings suggest that high-profile interventions from divisive political figures ultimately may be unhelpful or, worse, damaging in the general election to the endorsed candidates. While such an endorsement does provide some benefits to the endorsed candidate, it also generates a backlash effect that can ultimately benefit an opponent. </p>
<p>Early indications in Trump endorsements for 2022 suggest they may be even more detrimental than in 2018. In addition to the failure of Trump’s endorsement to carry his preferred candidate to office in Texas’s 6th Congressional District recently, opponents <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1421201487246643203?s=20">have outspent Trump-endorsed candidates this cycle </a>. </p>
<p>Given both parties’ anticipation of a hotly contested election in 2022, with control of both the House and Senate likely to be up for grabs, party leaders and candidates may want to carefully evaluate whether they need or want the help of both President Biden and former President Trump on the campaign trail. These endorsements may ultimately prompt more backlash than support.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand what’s going on in Washington.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Candidates: Be careful what you wish for.Hans J.G. Hassell, Associate Professor of Political Science, Florida State UniversityAndrew Ballard, Assistant Professor, Government, American UniversityMichael Heseltine, PhD. Candidate, Political Science, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1628202021-06-15T20:01:50Z2021-06-15T20:01:50ZUS bishops set collision course with Vatican over plan to press Biden not to take Communion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406549/original/file-20210615-21-1v6bzcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C56%2C4173%2C3053&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Vatican has warned U.S. bishops not to deny Communion to President Biden.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VaticanPopeBiden/8900b7d6a24d44c5b975f33a4feb21a6/photo?Query=Biden%20AND%20pope&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=106&currentItemNo=6">L'Osservatore Romano/Pool photo via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/14/world/europe/biden-vatican-communion-abortion.html">rift between conservative American bishops and the Vatican</a> could be laid bare on June 16 as the <a href="https://www.usccb.org/news/2021/us-bishops-meet-virtually-june-16-18-assembly-be-livestreamed-and-live-tweeted">U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops meets</a> amid talk of a growing divide in the church over Pope Francis’ leadership.</p>
<p>During the virtual event, U.S. bishops are expected to approve a motion to begin drafting a document on “Eucharistic coherence” that would exclude Catholic political figures who support abortion rights from receiving Communion. </p>
<p>If they do proceed, the bishops will have opened a breach with Pope Francis and the Vatican, <a href="https://www.vaticannews.va/en/vatican-city/news/2021-05/vatican-letter-ladaria-bishops-us-communion-politics-abortion.html">which has all but instructed the bishops not to go ahead with the motion</a>. </p>
<p>They would also be putting the Catholic Church in the United States in unprecedented territory regarding its relationship with the wider Catholic community.</p>
<p>It all stems from a dilemma President Joe Biden poses for Catholic bishops. Many prominent Roman Catholics in public life – including Democrats such as Biden and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2021/05/02/pelosi-archbishop-communion/">House Speaker Nancy Pelosi</a> – support abortion rights. Yet the Roman Catholic Church teaches that abortion is the taking of a human life, no different from murder, and <a href="https://www.vatican.va/archive/cod-iuris-canonici/eng/documents/cic_lib6-cann1364-1399_en.html#TITLE_VI.">so grave a sin that it incurs an automatic excommunication</a>. This has led some bishops to grow concerned that a contradictory picture of Catholic faith is being presented to the public.</p>
<p>Their response is a pastoral statement on “Eucharistic coherence” that would instruct Catholics about when they should and should not receive Communion. The effect of that document would be to exclude Catholics like Biden and Pelosi from full participation in the church.</p>
<p>Communion, also known as the Eucharist, is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-catholic-church-bans-gluten-free-communion-wafers-81062">central act of Roman Catholic worship</a>, in which Catholics receive bread and wine that they believe becomes the body and blood of Jesus Christ.</p>
<p>Church law particularly excludes from taking Communion those who are guilty of what is known as “<a href="https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GCEU_enUS822US822&sxsrf=ALeKk01_DKSggHXXXnubRL67cN6Sw_gKlg%3A1620126811994&lei=WyyRYLKTPM7NtQac06O4AQ&q=code%20of%20canon%20law%20915&ved=2ahUKEwjyrPrY8q_wAhXOZs0KHZzpCBcQsKwBKAB6BAgcEAE&biw=1366&bih=625">manifest grave sin</a>.” This means no one who has committed a serious sin in a way that is publicly visible should receive Communion.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/468335-catholic-priest-was-correct-to-deny-communion-to-joe-biden-heres-why">bishops argue</a> that in supporting abortion rights, Democrats like Joe Biden have made themselves unsuitable to take Communion.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://ctu.edu/faculty/steven-millies/">scholar who studies Catholicism in political life</a>, I argue that the proposed pastoral statement reflects existing divisions inside the Catholic Church that have been heightened by the election of Biden as president. Moreover, it will serve only to deepen the divide.</p>
<h2>Greater authority?</h2>
<p>Joe Biden is <a href="https://www.christianpost.com/voices/the-greatest-commandment-has-guided-my-politics.html">a devoted Catholic</a>, attending Mass weekly and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/20/913667325/how-joe-bidens-faith-shapes-his-politics">carrying a rosary</a> everywhere he goes. He has talked many times about how important his faith is to him.</p>
<p>But his policy position on abortion jars with more conservative elements in the Catholic Church. In October 2019, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-joe-biden-was-denied-communion-at-a-church-126171">a priest declined to give Communion</a> to the then-presidential candidate when he presented himself at St. Anthony Church in Florence, South Carolina. The priest, who had never met Biden before, <a href="https://www.ncronline.org/news/politics/biden-denied-communion-mass-during-campaign-stop-south-carolina">told reporters</a>, “Any public figure who advocates for abortion places himself or herself outside of church teaching.”</p>
<p>The picture is not as clear as that priest suggests, and the Catholic Church’s history of dealing with Catholic public officials is more inconsistent. Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, for example, presided over a <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/06/15/bringing-justice-franco-era-crimes-spain">brutal regime of atrocities and torture</a> known throughout the world, yet he <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws5IDep_3TA">received a Catholic burial</a> in 1975 over which the archbishop of Toledo presided.</p>
<p>More pertinent to the Biden case, Pope John Paul II <a href="https://www.ncronline.org/news/opinion/editorial-john-paul-ii-model-abortion-debate">gave Communion in 2001 to Rome’s mayor, Franceso Rutelli</a>, who had campaigned to liberalize abortion laws. Likewise, Pope Benedict XVI gave <a href="https://www.ncronline.org/news/no-hard-line-pope-communion-pro-choice-pols">Communion to Rudolph Giuliani, Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry</a> – all of whom support abortion rights.</p>
<p>The reason the issue has come up now in the U.S. appears to be more about concerns among bishops over their waning influence.</p>
<p>Kansas City Archbishop Joseph Naumann, chair of the U.S. bishops’ Committee on Pro-Life Activities and one of the main figures supporting a pastoral statement about Communion, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-government-and-politics-religion-22e0d1ba299fe8693013036e3cc85c81">told The Associated Press</a> in April, “Whether intentional or not, [Biden is] trying to usurp our authority.”</p>
<p>“He doesn’t have the authority to teach what it means to be Catholic,” Naumann <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-government-and-politics-religion-22e0d1ba299fe8693013036e3cc85c81">continued</a>; “that’s our responsibility as bishops.”</p>
<p>Naumann may have reasons to be concerned. A 2019 poll found that <a href="https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/43041/survey-americans-dissatisfied-with-bishops-response-to-sex-abuse-crisis">63% of American Catholics have lost trust in Catholic bishops</a> because of their <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-catholic-churchs-grim-history-of-ignoring-priestly-pedophilia-and-silencing-would-be-whistleblowers-102387">handling of the ongoing crisis</a> of sexual abuse.</p>
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<p>To many Catholics, Biden’s presentation of Catholic faith as aligning with <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2021/04/29/biden-speech-congress-catholic-reaction-240557">racial justice, economic justice, climate justice and health care justice</a> offers a pointed contrast with bishops mired in scandal and unhappy about trends such as same-sex marriage in American culture.</p>
<p>Denver Archbishop Samuel J. Aquila wrote in mid-April about what he sees as <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2021/04/14/aquila-denver-eucharist-politicians-teaching-240396">the need to establish “Eucharistic coherence”</a> through a pastoral statement that would set out when someone like Biden should not present himself for Communion. It seems many bishops like Aquila see that as the solution to their dilemma over Biden.</p>
<p>But not all bishops agree. Approximately 70 of the nearly-250 bishops in the U.S. signed <a href="https://www.ncregister.com/news/fissures-on-holy-communion-some-bishops-push-back">a letter urging the bishops conference to slow down</a> and consider this pastoral statement and its effects more carefully. Yet the great majority of U.S. bishops are as <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2021/05/26/usccb-president-archbishop-gomez-eucharist-240755">undeterred by that letter</a> as they have been by urgings from Rome.</p>
<h2>Communion ‘not a prize’</h2>
<p>This proposal for a document about “Eucharistic coherence” will come before the <a href="https://www.usccb.org/">U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops’</a> virtual meeting, being held June 16-18. But even if a pastoral statement is written, <a href="http://www.vatican.va/content/john-paul-ii/en/motu_proprio/documents/hf_jp-ii_motu-proprio_22071998_apostolos-suos.html">the conference has no authority to enforce it on any particular bishop</a>. The result would be an incoherent patchwork allowing each individual bishop to decide. Washington’s Cardinal Wilton Gregory already has indicated <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2020/11/24/cardinal-wilton-gregory-joe-biden-communion-dialogue">he will not prevent Biden from receiving Communion</a>. As such, the pastoral statement could serve only to highlight <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2021/01/27/bishops-joe-biden-inauguration-statement-vatican-usccb-239833">differences among many American bishops and the pope</a>.</p>
<p>It also could backfire as an attempt to wrestle back authority for U.S. bishops. A preelection debate over <a href="https://religionunplugged.com/news/2020/8/13/is-joe-biden-a-catholic-it-depends-on-who-you-ask">the sincerity of Biden’s Catholicism</a> proved divisive among the faithful. Biden, through Baptism and participation in the other sacraments, is a Catholic. There is no question about that.</p>
<p>Because it reflects intense divisions in the church, this effort to disqualify the president from the sacraments and the church are, I believe, a threat to church authority today. Nothing that furthers or deepens those divisions will help the bishops or the Catholics that they lead. And the growing visibility of the divide between U.S. bishops and the pope is a threat to the church itself.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/bishops-move-to-press-biden-not-to-take-communion-reflects-power-struggle-in-split-catholic-church-160157">article originally published</a> on May 5, 2021.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven P. Millies was a member of the Biden-Harris campaign's Catholic Advisory Council.</span></em></p>A debate over whether President Biden’s views on abortion disqualify him from taking Communion serves to expose a rift between US bishops and the pope, and is a threat to the church itself.Steven P. Millies, Professor of Public Theology and Director of The Bernardin Center, Catholic Theological UnionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1601572021-05-05T12:09:29Z2021-05-05T12:09:29ZBishops’ move to press Biden not to take Communion reflects power struggle in split Catholic Church<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398677/original/file-20210504-15-1cnnilo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5751%2C3305&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden's progressive values jar with the conservatism of some Catholic bishops.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenCatholicBishops/6d0255c397814a4880e3833624decf66/photo?Query=Biden%20AND%20communion&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=4&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/60-years-after-jfk-biden-as-second-catholic-president-offers-a-refresh-in-churchs-political-role-148766">highest-profile and most powerful lay Catholic</a> in American life today – but he also holds policy views that diverge from many Catholic bishops. And that is causing some problems.</p>
<p>The dilemma looks like this. The Roman Catholic Church teaches that abortion is the taking of a human life, no different from murder, and <a href="http://www.vatican.va/archive/ccc_css/archive/catechism/p3s2c2a5.htm">so grave a sin that it incurs an automatic excommunication</a>. Yet prominent Roman Catholics in public life – including Democrats such as Biden and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2021/05/02/pelosi-archbishop-communion/">House Speaker Nancy Pelosi</a> – support abortion rights. It has led to concern from some Catholic bishops that a contradictory picture of Catholic faith is being presented to the public.</p>
<p>In response, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-government-and-politics-religion-22e0d1ba299fe8693013036e3cc85c81">U.S. bishops reportedly are</a> preparing a pastoral statement expected to be released in June that would instruct Catholics about when they should and should not receive Communion. The effect of that document would be to exclude Catholics like Biden and Pelosi from full participation in the church.</p>
<p>Communion, also known as the Eucharist, is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-catholic-church-bans-gluten-free-communion-wafers-81062">central act of Roman Catholic worship</a> in which Catholics receive bread and wine that they believe becomes the body and blood of Jesus Christ.</p>
<p>Church law particularly excludes from taking Communion those who are guilty of what is known as “<a href="https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GCEU_enUS822US822&sxsrf=ALeKk01_DKSggHXXXnubRL67cN6Sw_gKlg%3A1620126811994&lei=WyyRYLKTPM7NtQac06O4AQ&q=code%20of%20canon%20law%20915&ved=2ahUKEwjyrPrY8q_wAhXOZs0KHZzpCBcQsKwBKAB6BAgcEAE&biw=1366&bih=625">manifest grave sin</a>.” This means no one who has committed a serious sin in a way that is publicly visible should receive Communion.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/468335-catholic-priest-was-correct-to-deny-communion-to-joe-biden-heres-why">bishops argue</a> that being pro-choice, Democrats like Joe Biden have made themselves unsuitable to take Communion. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://ctu.edu/faculty/steven-millies/">scholar who studies Catholicism in political life</a>, I argue that the proposed pastoral statement reflects existing divisions inside the Catholic Church that have been heightened by the election of Biden as president. Moreover, it will serve only to deepen the divide. </p>
<h2>Greater authority?</h2>
<p>Joe Biden is <a href="https://www.christianpost.com/voices/the-greatest-commandment-has-guided-my-politics.html">a devoted Catholic</a>, attending Mass weekly and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/20/913667325/how-joe-bidens-faith-shapes-his-politics">carrying a rosary</a> everywhere he goes. He has talked many times about how important his faith is to him.</p>
<p>But his policy position on abortion jars with more conservative elements in the Catholic Church. In October 2019, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-joe-biden-was-denied-communion-at-a-church-126171">a priest declined to give Communion</a> to the then-presidential candidate when he presented himself at St. Anthony Church in Florence, South Carolina. The priest, who had never met Biden before, <a href="https://www.ncronline.org/news/politics/biden-denied-communion-mass-during-campaign-stop-south-carolina">told reporters</a>, “Any public figure who advocates for abortion places himself or herself outside of church teaching.”</p>
<p>The picture is not as clear as that priest suggests, and the Catholic Church’s history of dealing with Catholic public officials is more inconsistent. Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, for example, presided over a <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/06/15/bringing-justice-franco-era-crimes-spain#">brutal regime of atrocities and torture</a> known throughout the world, yet he <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws5IDep_3TA">received a Catholic burial</a> in 1975 over which the archbishop of Toledo presided.</p>
<p>More pertinent to the Biden case, Pope John Paul II <a href="https://www.ncronline.org/news/opinion/editorial-john-paul-ii-model-abortion-debate">gave Communion in 2001 to Rome’s mayor, Franceso Rutelli</a>, who had campaigned to liberalize abortion laws. Likewise, Pope Benedict XVI gave <a href="https://www.ncronline.org/news/no-hard-line-pope-communion-pro-choice-pols">Communion to Rudolph Giuliani, Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry</a> – all of whom support abortion rights.</p>
<p>The reason the issue has come up now in the U.S. appears to be more about concerns among bishops over their waning influence.</p>
<p>Kansas City Archbishop Joseph Naumann, chair of the U.S. bishops’ committee on pro-life activities and one of the main figures supporting a pastoral statement about Communion, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-government-and-politics-religion-22e0d1ba299fe8693013036e3cc85c81">told The Associated Press</a>, “Whether intentional or not, [Biden is] trying to usurp our authority.”</p>
<p>“He doesn’t have the authority to teach what it means to be Catholic,” Naumann <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-government-and-politics-religion-22e0d1ba299fe8693013036e3cc85c81">continued</a>; “that’s our responsibility as bishops.”</p>
<p>Naumann may have reasons to be concerned. A 2019 poll found that <a href="https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/43041/survey-americans-dissatisfied-with-bishops-response-to-sex-abuse-crisis">63% of American Catholics have lost trust in Catholic bishops</a> because of their <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-catholic-churchs-grim-history-of-ignoring-priestly-pedophilia-and-silencing-would-be-whistleblowers-102387">handling of the still-ongoing crisis</a> of sexual abuse.</p>
<p>To many Catholics, Biden’s presentation of Catholic faith as aligning with <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2021/04/29/biden-speech-congress-catholic-reaction-240557">racial justice, economic justice, climate justice and health care justice</a> offers a pointed contrast with bishops mired in scandal and unhappy about trends such as same-sex marriage in American culture.</p>
<p>Denver Archbishop Samuel J. Aquila wrote in mid-April about <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2021/04/14/aquila-denver-eucharist-politicians-teaching-240396">the need to establish “Eucharistic coherence”</a> through a pastoral statement that would state when someone like Biden should not present himself for Communion. It seems as though, to many bishops like Aquila, that is the solution to their dilemma over Biden.</p>
<p>But not all bishops agree. Chicago’s Cardinal Blase Cupich wrote <a href="https://www.pillarcatholic.com/p/cardinal-cupich-asked-archbishop">a private letter to Aquila</a> expressing his reservations. The letter was leaked after it was received, making divisions among the bishops more visible.</p>
<h2>Communion ‘not a prize’</h2>
<p>The proposed document about “Eucharistic coherence” is expected to come before the <a href="https://www.usccb.org/">U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops</a> in June – a move that likely will highlight even more the split within the church. But even if the pastoral statement is approved, <a href="http://www.vatican.va/content/john-paul-ii/en/motu_proprio/documents/hf_jp-ii_motu-proprio_22071998_apostolos-suos.html">the conference has no authority to enforce it on any particular bishop</a>. The result would be an incoherent patchwork allowing each individual bishop to decide. Washington’s Cardinal Wilton Gregory already has indicated <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2020/11/24/cardinal-wilton-gregory-joe-biden-communion-dialogue">he will not prevent Biden from receiving Communion</a>. </p>
<p>Only the Vatican has the right to enforce the pastoral statement on every bishop – but that almost certainly will not happen. Pope Francis previously has made his view clear that the Eucharist “<a href="http://www.vatican.va/evangelii-gaudium/en/files/assets/basic-html/page40.html">is not a prize for the perfect but a powerful medicine and nourishment for the weak</a>.”</p>
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<p>As such, the pastoral statement could serve only to highlight <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2021/01/27/bishops-joe-biden-inauguration-statement-vatican-usccb-239833">differences among many American bishops and the pope</a>.</p>
<p>It also could backfire as an attempt to wrestle back authority for U.S. bishops. A preelection debate over <a href="https://religionunplugged.com/news/2020/8/13/is-joe-biden-a-catholic-it-depends-on-who-you-ask">the sincerity of Biden’s Catholicism</a> proved divisive among the faithful. Biden, through baptism and participation in the other sacraments, is a Catholic. There is no question about that. </p>
<p>Because they reflect intense divisions in the church, these efforts to disqualify the president from the sacraments and the church are, I believe, a threat to church authority today. Nothing that furthers or deepens those divisions will help the bishops or the Catholics that they lead.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven P. Millies was a member of the Biden-Harris 2020 campaign's Catholic Advisory Council.</span></em></p>Communion is the central act of Catholic worship. So why are some US bishops trying to stop President Joe Biden – a devout Catholic – from partaking?Steven P. Millies, Professor of Public Theology and Director of The Bernardin Center, Catholic Theological UnionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1599792021-04-29T05:01:29Z2021-04-29T05:01:29ZBiden gives Congress his vision to ‘win the 21st century’ – scholars react<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397735/original/file-20210429-21-1i0v7ql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=99%2C52%2C3408%2C2283&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Biden laid out an ambitious agenda to Congress with a historic backdrop.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXBiden100DaysCongress/89c3887ce769430ab763e0872afaf0a1/photo?Query=biden&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=47875&currentItemNo=0">Melina Mara/The Washington Post via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-28/biden-to-make-call-to-action-in-first-congressional-address?srnd=premium&sref=Hjm5biAW">President Joe Biden spoke to Congress</a> April 28, 2021, with a historic duo flanking him: two women, one of them African American. Vice President Kamala Harris called the proceedings to order; Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi made the formal introduction of Biden to Congress. We asked three scholars to provide reactions to Biden’s speech, which began with a recounting of his administration’s accomplishments during its first 100 days and ended with his plea for unity so that America can “deliver on its promise.”</em></p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>A return to normalcy</h2>
<p><strong>Karrin Vasby Anderson, Professor of Communication Studies, Colorado State University</strong></p>
<p>The visual backdrop to Biden’s address to Congress highlighted what was unusual and extraordinary this year, from the masks and social distancing that signaled the continuation of the pandemic, to the two women flanking the president. </p>
<p>“Madam Speaker, Madam Vice President. No president has ever said those words from this podium … and it’s about time,” he said. </p>
<p>The rest of his address was designed to further return a sense of normalcy to presidential communication that was often absent from Donald Trump’s freewheeling – and sometimes rambling and abusive – <a href="https://qz.com/965004/rhetoric-scholars-pinpoint-why-trumps-inarticulate-speaking-style-is-so-persuasive/">rhetorical approach</a>. </p>
<p>Communication scholars <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo5759249.html">Karlyn Kohrs Campbell and Kathleen Hall Jamieson explain</a> that presidents’ annual addresses to Congress usually do three things: promote values; assess issues; and propose policy. </p>
<p>Biden promoted familiar values of American optimism, success and exceptionalism. He assessed a long list of issues facing Americans, from the pandemic to jobs, the environment to foreign policy. And he proposed a slate of policies arguably more ambitious than anything promoted from the presidential platform since Lyndon B. Johnson stumped for “<a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1960s/great-society">The Great Society</a>.”</p>
<p>Using antithesis – where two opposites are used for contrast – to draw a distinction between himself and his predecessor, Biden urged that America “is rising, choosing hope over fear, truth over lies, and light over darkness.” He also peppered his speech with alliteration, heralding “100 days of rescue and renewal,” after emerging from an “abyss of insurrection and autocracy, pandemic and pain.”</p>
<p>Biden explicitly invoked a famous presidential address: Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s “<a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/12/roosevelt-arsenal-of-democracy-speech-213483">Arsenal of Democracy</a>,” in which FDR tried to coax a reluctant nation to care about Adolf Hitler’s march across Europe. For Biden, the COVID-19 vaccines are part of America’s 21st-century arsenal enabling a peaceful return to international dominance.</p>
<p>In fact, many of the policies of care outlined in Biden’s speech were couched in the language of competition. He noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping was “deadly earnest” about China becoming “the most significant and consequential nation in the world,” and he urged that for the U.S. “to win that competition for the future,” a “once-in-a-generation investment in our families and our children” is needed.</p>
<p>The language of international competition is particularly well tuned to American ears. Even most of the Republicans in the audience rose to their feet when Biden concluded with the refrain that “it has never, ever, ever been a good bet to bet against America.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman and young boy in a kitchen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397676/original/file-20210428-17-16yp0ys.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Biden’s proposal aims to help families with a range of programs, from child care to food assistance and universal preschool for 3- and 4-year-olds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Hunger%20In%20America/7ff5283b6cdf41aab51f7ec792287159?Query=American%20AND%20families&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=7549&currentItemNo=194">AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast</a></span>
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<h2>More money for Pell Grants, HBCUs and Tribal Colleges</h2>
<p><strong>Ivory A. Toldson, Professor of Counseling Psychology, Howard University</strong></p>
<p>Biden mentioned historically Black colleges and universities, also known as HBCUs, as well as tribal colleges and other minority serving institutions, signaling that they are a significant part of his agenda. These colleges and universities have been shown to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/186362/grads-historically-black-colleges-edge.aspx?g_source=CATEGORY_WELLBEING&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles">improve outcomes for students</a> who have been traditionally underrepresented in higher education. </p>
<p>Biden also mentioned increasing Pell Grants. President Obama used a similar strategy when striving to provide funding to institutions of higher education that serve underrepresented students. Although <a href="https://www.jbhe.com/features/65_pellgrants.html">most students at HBCUs are eligible for the Pell grant</a>, Pell grants can be used at any institution of higher education. For this reason, some leaders of minority serving institutions consider it disingenuous to see increases in Pell grants as a unique benefit to minority serving institutions. </p>
<p>Biden’s spirit and tone suggested that he considered himself to be a champion of institutions of higher education that serve low-income and historically underrepresented students. He noted that these institutions have smaller endowments but nevertheless have talented students. He also noted his wife’s affiliation with a community college. The Biden and Harris ticket is the first Democratic ticket since 1984 <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/biden-harris-to-be-first-democratic-ticket-without-an-ivy-league-degree-since-1984.html">without an Ivy League grad</a>.</p>
<p>Before the speech, President <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2021/04/28/biden-proposes-free-community-college-18-trillion-plan">Biden released his budget proposal</a>. The proposal calls for US$109 billion for two years of free community college and $39 billion to cover the cost of tuition for students at HBCUs, tribal colleges and universities and other minority-serving institution. This is similar to President <a href="https://diverseeducation.com/article/81197/">Obama’s 2015 budget proposal</a>. Universal higher education is necessary to achieve educational equity in the United States, so this is a proposal that I hope will gain traction.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sea of faces in graduation caps and gowns" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397662/original/file-20210428-23-1j7hgw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Graduation at Southern Maine Community College, in South Portland, Maine, includes newly minted firefighters and others with associate degrees and professional certifications.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/southern-maine-community-college-held-its-69th-annual-news-photo/534287678">Gabe Souza/Portland Portland Press Herald via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>Restoring the American dream</h2>
<p><strong>Veronika Dolar, Assistant Professor of Economics, SUNY Old Westbury</strong></p>
<p>The U.S. has long prided itself on providing opportunities that help Americans climb the economic ladder and earn higher incomes than their parents. Some call it the “American dream,” but to <a href="http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GyTN5PYAAAAJ&hl=en">economists like me</a>, it’s known as upward social mobility. </p>
<p>Social mobility in the U.S. has been slipping for decades. While the vast majority of Americans born in the 1950s and 1960s <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/social-mobility-upwards-decline-usa-us-america-economics/">earned more than their parents did</a>, barely half of millennials can say the same – <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/11/politics/millennials-income-stalled-upward-mobility-us/index.html">the first generation in U.S. history</a> for whom that’s true. </p>
<p>Biden’s <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bidens-american-families-plan-is-coming-whats-in-it-11618943914">$1.8 trillion American Families Plan</a> aims to reverse that, primarily by <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/04/28/joe-bidens-speech-congress-read-full-transcript/4883244001/">making what he called</a> in his speech a “once-in-a-generation investment in our families and our children.”</p>
<p>One big part of that is $200 billion for universal preschool for all 3- and 4-year-olds. Research shows that <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w22993">childhood programs</a> targeting disadvantaged families have substantial beneficial impacts on children’s health, future wages and education levels. This not only makes them more socially mobile but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-044894-7.01226-4">also boosts</a> the broader economy.</p>
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<p>Biden also <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bidens-american-families-plan-is-coming-whats-in-it-11618943914">wants to spend $225 billion</a> to provide workers 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave.</p>
<p>The U.S. remains one of <a href="https://www.worldpolicycenter.org/policies/is-paid-leave-available-to-mothers-and-fathers-of-infants/is-paid-leave-available-for-mothers-of-infants">only a few countries</a> without any national paid family leave policy. <a href="https://equitablegrowth.org/the-economic-imperative-of-enacting-paid-family-leave-across-the-united-states/">Just 17% of U.S. private-sector workers</a> have access to paid family leave through their employers, and it’s even less for low-income workers. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/how-children-benefit-from-paid-family-leave-policies/#ixzz6tNRut0Dd">myriad health and other benefits</a> for children whose parents receive paid family leave, primarily stemming from the increased regularity of baby checkups, higher immunization rates and more years of school. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/679627">A study found</a> that after Norway introduced four months of mandatory paid leave, high school graduation and college attendance rates climbed, and children’s future earnings increased. Gains were greatest for children with less educated mothers.</p>
<p>The plan also includes $225 billion for <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1377/hpb20190325.519221">more affordable child care</a>, which studies show can improve children’s health and <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/effects-child-care-subsidies-maternal-labor-force-participation-united-states">increases the labor force participation and employment rates</a> of low-income mothers. </p>
<p>The price tag is high, and it will take time to see a return. But <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337144224_A_Literature_Review_of_Human_Capital_and_Economic_Growth">numerous studies</a> have shown <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2677725?seq=1">these types of investments are the best way</a> to promote long-term economic growth and social mobility.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159979/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ivory A. Toldson was affiliated with the White House Initiative on HBCUs under President Obama.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karrin Vasby Anderson and Veronika Dolar do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Three scholars examine President Biden’s rhetoric, the symbolism and the several ambitious plans he proposed in his first address to Congress.Karrin Vasby Anderson, Professor of Communication Studies, Colorado State UniversityIvory A. Toldson, Professor of Counseling Psychology, Howard UniversityVeronika Dolar, Assistant Professor of Economics, SUNY Old WestburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1540992021-02-14T17:15:54Z2021-02-14T17:15:54ZFact check US: Is the filibuster one of the major obstacles ahead for Joe Biden?<p>When the Democrats won both of Georgia’s Senate contests in January, they pulled off the unlikely feat of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-senate.html">gaining control of the Senate</a>. While it’s split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, the vice-president is Kamala Harris and thus holds the tie-breaking vote. That gives the Democrats a razor-thin majority, but a majority nonetheless. </p>
<p>Without 60 seats, however, Biden and the Democrats don’t have the strength to overcome a filibuster should any Republican senator, even one, decide to block a bill he or she doesn’t like. Once rare, the filibuster has been used with increasing frequency since the early 2000s, making it more and more difficult for any administration to pass legislation. It was one of the reasons that Obama gave up on passing the 2009 <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2010/10/12/8569/anatomy-of-a-senate-climate-bill-death/">Clean Energy and Security Act</a>, which aimed to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Such were the anticipated obstacles from the Senate, even though the bill had been passed the House by a 219-212.</p>
<p>This situation was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/us/politics/tom-udall-farewell-speech-senate.html">denounced by then-New Mexico senator Tom Udall</a> during a farewell speech he gave on December 8, 2020. He called the Senate a “graveyard for progress” and stated that “the reality of the filibuster is paralysis – a deep paralysis”. Some Democrats are dreading the use of this tool for obstruction over the next four years, and calling on Biden to abolish it, such as former Nevada Senator Harry Reid, who told the Associated Press in October 2020 that “the time’s going to come when he’s going to have to move in and get rid of the filibuster”. </p>
<p>Will legislative obstruction be as much of a problem for Biden and his policies as it was for Obama? If so, what options does he have? </p>
<h2>A short history of the filibuster</h2>
<p>The filibuster in its current form is an outgrowth of a <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Filibuster_Cloture.htm">1917 Senate reform</a>. It is a distinctive feature of the Senate and has no equivalent in any other branch of the US government. Once invoked, it allows a senator to speak for as long as they want, without being interrupted.</p>
<p>Filibusters were intended to safeguard the right of minority opinions to be heard. It also allows all senators feel like they are important, because each and every one can in effect prevent a bill from being passed, even when it’s supported by the 99 other senators. After a filibuster, the bill can technically be put back on the table, but the Senate often prefers to move on to the next bill. All the more so that senators typically respect each other’s prerogatives. This means that filibusters do in fact work as a veto on any proposed bill.</p>
<h2>The president’s options when faced with legislative obstruction</h2>
<p>Due to the separation of powers in the United States, the president has no authority over the internal regulations of Congress, and that includes the filibuster. While the Democrats control the Senate and Biden could ask Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, to abolish the filibuster, Biden is an institutionalist. Having spent 20 years in the Senate, he is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/23/us/politics/joe-biden-senate.html">attached to its traditions</a> and appears <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/video-joe-biden-saying-filibuster-about-compromise-moderation-resurfaces-1564276">opposed</a> to any change. That is why he would rather promote his policies in order to persuade Congress to adopt them and avoid wasting precious political capital on a procedural maneuver that’s little known to overwhelming majority of Americans.</p>
<p>Those in the Biden camp who would like to see the filibuster gone believe that because of the make-up of the 117th Congress, there is every likelihood that legislative obstruction will be regularly used. Given that the Republicans have one fewer votes are likely to employ the filibuster as their ace in the hole.</p>
<p>Over the past 20 years, the number of bills that were passed into law has been steadily decreasing. At the same time, partisan polarization has become more pronounced. Passing a piece of legislation is now almost the <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2019/12/05/478199/impact-filibuster-federal-policymaking/">exception to the rule</a>. It is extremely difficult for the two parties to work together on joint projects, and most Republicans are categorically opposed to anything that is submitted by Democrats, which will certainly make it harder for Biden to successfully govern.</p>
<h2>Trying to overcome the filibuster</h2>
<p>The storming of the Capitol by Trump’s supporters on January 6, 2020, was an immense shock, however. Republicans are deeply split over the attack, with some members loudly supporting Trump, many keeping silent, and a limited number denouncing his actions. A key defection is Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, who has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/us/politics/mcconnell-trump-capitol-riot.html">distanced himself from the former president</a>. So he might show some goodwill toward President Biden. </p>
<p>As a centrist Democrat, Biden will try to overcome the partisan rift. Barack Obama tried the same approach and was systematically blocked, but this time around some Republicans who oppose Trump may accept Biden’s outstretched hand. Biden is well aware that it will be impossible for him to achieve a 60-vote supermajority with his own party alone, and that requires bipartisanship.</p>
<p>If only a limited number of Republicans cooperate with the Democratic majority, Democrats could make use of procedural methods to counter filibuster attempts, as they did under Obama. First, they could use the “reconciliation” technique that was used to pass the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Care_and_Education_Reconciliation_Act_of_2010">Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010</a>, which amended the earlier Affordable Care Act. Second, there’s the “nuclear option”: the Senate majority leader has the power to block the use of filibuster for certain types of legislation.</p>
<p>In 2013, a similar measure was used to abolish the filibuster for institutional nominations, <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/01/fact-check-gop-ended-senate-filibuster-supreme-court-nominees/3573369001/">except for the Supreme Court</a>. In 2017, the Republicans then extended this limited version of the “nuclear option” to end the filibuster against Neil Gorsuch’s nomination to the Supreme Court, knowing full well that Democrats would have blocked it otherwise.</p>
<p>Whether or not President Biden can pass his policies with only 51-50 control of the Senate, it should be noted that the filibuster has led to an almost complete paralysis of the legislative branch. The current Congress could be one of the least productive in history. Moreover, polls indicate that only <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx">25% of Americans</a> say they’re satisfied with the work of Congress, and even this constitutes a substantial improvement over earlier polls.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The Fact check US section received support from <a href="https://craignewmarkphilanthropies.org/">Craig Newmark Philanthropies</a>, an American foundation fighting against disinformation.</em></p>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Rosie Marsland for <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/en">Fast ForWord</a> and Leighton Kille.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154099/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>François Vergniolle de Chantal ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Endless filibustering has paralysed the US Senate, and with it all of Congress. Will this form of obstructionism be one of the main challenges facing Biden, as some Democrats fear?François Vergniolle de Chantal, Professeur de civilisation américaine à l'Université de Paris (LARCA - CNRS/UMR 8225)., Université Paris CitéLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.