tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/national-security-430/articlesNational security – The Conversation2024-03-22T15:52:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260322024-03-22T15:52:33Z2024-03-22T15:52:33ZHundreds of Nigerian children are being kidnapped – the government must change its security strategy<p>School abductions have been a trend in Nigeria. The latest took place in Kaduna and Sokoto states, both in the north-west region, when over <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/10/nigeria-school-abductions-more-pupils-snatched-as-army-hunts-for-missing">300 children</a> were abducted at different times in March 2024. </p>
<p>Previous prominent cases have included the <a href="https://theconversation.com/chibok-kidnappings-why-its-important-to-listen-to-the-survivors-of-boko-haram-terrorism-192271">Chibok</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43197694">Dapchi</a> and <a href="https://ng.usembassy.gov/the-united-states-condemns-the-kidnapping-of-students-in-kankara-nigeria/">Kankara</a> abductions, which insurgents claimed to have perpetrated.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=aZu3-_MAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">security scholar and analyst</a> who has researched and written extensively on aspects of Nigeria’s security challenges, including <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Banditry-and-Security-Crisis-in-Nigeria/Okoli-Ngom/p/book/9781032395258">kidnapping and allied crimes</a>, I see school abductions as a symptom of government neglect of territorial and human security. </p>
<p>Territorial security refers to keeping the country’s geographical spaces (land, borders, seas, airspace, cyberspace) safe from any internal or external threats. </p>
<p>Human security means protecting the country’s people from all kinds of dangers, be they social, economic, political, ecological or technological.</p>
<p>I argue that there is a need for Nigeria to change the way it attends to territorial and human security.</p>
<p>The government must guard what it is responsible for, and exercise proper control over ungoverned, under-governed and contested spaces. Non-state actors have taken over some of these spaces and violence can flourish there.</p>
<p>Locations occupied by any form of criminal non-state actors need to be reclaimed. The way to do this is through a consolidated, coordinated, multi-tiered security arrangement that enlists local participation and indigenous knowledge.</p>
<p>The national security system needs reform. Options to explore include state policing, community policing and alternative policing based on local people’s know-how. </p>
<p>This should happen within a framework of constitutionally mediated reform. The idea would be to give the regional and sub-regional authorities some constitutional powers to use in security matters.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-nigeria-must-do-to-deal-with-its-ransom-driven-kidnapping-crisis-116547">What Nigeria must do to deal with its ransom-driven kidnapping crisis</a>
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<h2>Reclaiming lost territory</h2>
<p>Hundreds of millions of Nigerians live in grossly <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/disconnected-spaces">undergoverned or contested</a> territories in a dysfunctional state. They are left to live under little or no governmental presence and care. </p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Nigeria/rural_population_percent/">60%</a> of Nigeria’s over 200 million people live in rural or semi-rural areas. There, the influence of the state is hardly felt at all.</p>
<p>Where there are vulnerable human targets and neglected needs and there’s no competent and credible guardian, crime is bound to happen and to go unpunished. </p>
<p>School abductions will happen again.</p>
<h2>Mobilising Nigerians</h2>
<p>Even in places where the government has a presence, the concept of national security in Nigeria has over the years meant the security of the governing regime. </p>
<p>Successive political administrations have invested in security priorities that look after their own interests. </p>
<p>The state security forces have been equipped and deployed to crush anti-state elements that might rise against the vested interests of the incumbent regime. </p>
<p>Insurgents, rebels, militants, bandits and separatists are seen as dangerous only when they pose a direct threat to the regime and its structures. </p>
<p>Until that point, these anti-state forces are allowed to thrive and maintain spheres of control and governance within the country. </p>
<p>In some instances, government even negotiates with these criminal elements, offering <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0021909621990856?jou">kidnap ransoms and granting amnesty</a>. </p>
<p>Instead, society can be creatively harnessed and mobilised in a manner that profits national growth and development. </p>
<p>The material conditions that drive unrest and criminality, such as inequality, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/unemployment-rate">unemployment</a> and <a href="https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/1092#:%7E:text=In%20Nigeria%2040.1%20percent%20of,considered%20poor%20by%20national%20standards">poverty</a>, should be addressed through deliberate social welfare programming that targets the youth, the marginalised and vulnerable groups.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-at-risk-of-being-kidnapped-in-nigeria-184217">Who's at risk of being kidnapped in Nigeria?</a>
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<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>Lastly, the government needs to demonstrate that it has capacity to prevent and fight crime and to enable criminal justice. The cost of committing a crime must be made a lot higher than the benefit. </p>
<p>Perpetrators of school abductions and their collaborators must be promptly arrested, prosecuted and punished.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226032/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Al Chukwuma Okoli has consulted for Centre for Democracy and Development, Yaradua Foundation, African Union. He's received funding from Tertiary Education Fund (Nigeria). He is a member of Amnesty International (AI) and Conflict Research Network West Africa (CORN-WA). </span></em></p>Nigeria’s school abductions are a sign of neglect of territorial and human security in the country.Al Chukwuma Okoli, Reader (Associate Professor), Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science, Federal University of Lafia, Nigeria, Federal University LafiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2261202024-03-20T04:45:08Z2024-03-20T04:45:08ZThe government is fighting a new High Court case on immigration detainees. What’s it about and what’s at stake?<p>The government will be on tenterhooks again next month when the High Court of Australia hears another case that could lead to the release of a further cohort of people currently in immigration detention. </p>
<p>Given the ongoing political fallout of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-court-reasons-on-immigration-ruling-pave-way-for-further-legislation-218699">previous controversial</a> High Court case, the outcome of this one will be closely watched.</p>
<p>So why is this new case so significant, and how does it differ from the last one?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-governments-preventative-detention-bill-heres-how-the-laws-will-work-and-what-they-mean-for-australias-detention-system-219226">What is the government's preventative detention bill? Here's how the laws will work and what they mean for Australia's detention system</a>
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<h2>What is the case about?</h2>
<p>The case is called <em>ASF17 v Commonwealth</em>. It concerns an <a href="https://www.hcourt.gov.au/assets/cases/07-Perth/p7-2024/ASF17-Cth-App.pdf">Iranian citizen</a> who has been held in immigration detention for ten years. He failed in his application for a protection visa and is therefore subject to an obligation that he be deported as soon as reasonably practicable. </p>
<p>However, he has hindered his deportation (or “frustrated” it, in legal terms) by refusing to meet with Iranian officials to secure the travel documents needed for his return to Iran. </p>
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<p>He says he has good reason not to want to be returned to Iran because he is bisexual, has converted to Christianity, is Kurdish and has opposed the mistreatment of women by the Iranian government. </p>
<p>He says he fears for his life if he is removed to Iran, but he is prepared to cooperate in his removal to any country other than Iran.</p>
<p>The Commonwealth has accepted there is no prospect of his removal to any country other than Iran. It has also accepted that he cannot be removed to Iran without his cooperation, as Iran does not accept involuntary removals. </p>
<p>So does this mean he’ll be released in accordance with the High Court’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-laws-to-deal-with-immigration-detainees-were-rushed-leading-to-legal-risks-219384">previous <em>NZYQ</em> case</a>? </p>
<h2>How is this different from the previous case?</h2>
<p>You might remember the <em>NZYQ</em> case from late last year. In it, the court found a stateless Rohingya refugee, who couldn’t secure a visa because of previous criminal convictions, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-10/asylum-seekers-indefinite-detention-to-be-released/103088762">couldn’t be held</a> in indefinite detention. This was because there was “no real prospect of his removal from Australia becoming practicable in the reasonably foreseeable future”. </p>
<p>The decision overturned a 2004 precedent and triggered the release of at least <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-12/half-released-immigration-detainees-convicted-violent-offending/103455458">149 other detainees</a> in similar situations.</p>
<p>The Commonwealth has argued ASF17’s case falls into a different category, because whether there is a practical prospect of removal must be assessed on the basis that the detainee is cooperating. </p>
<p>When the case was first heard in the Federal Court, the Commonwealth argued that when assessing whether there is a practical prospect of deporting a detainee, delays caused by the detainee not cooperating shouldn’t be taken into account. This is regardless of whatever may be the reasons for his or her non-cooperation. </p>
<p>Justice Colvin, in the Federal Court, <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/FCA/2024/7.html">accepted</a> the Commonwealth’s argument. He pointed out that the reasons for refusal to cooperate, including fear of persecution on return to Iran, were matters separately dealt with during his application for a protection visa. </p>
<p>Once the detainee had reached the end of his appeals on this point, he was being held solely for the purpose of removal from Australia, so the reasons for his concerns could not be revisited. </p>
<p>Justice Colvin concluded that the assessment of whether there was a real prospect of his removal becoming practicable in the reasonably foreseeable future then had to be made on the basis of the detainee’s cooperation in taking relevant steps towards deportation. This was the case even if the detainee refused to act. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-laws-to-deal-with-immigration-detainees-were-rushed-leading-to-legal-risks-219384">New laws to deal with immigration detainees were rushed, leading to legal risks</a>
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<h2>The appeal to the High Court</h2>
<p>ASF17 then appealed to the Full Federal Court, and the Commonwealth government successfully sought the removal of this case directly into the High Court. This is because the lower courts have not been acting consistently on this point. </p>
<p>For example, in <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/FCA/2023/1497.html"><em>AZC20 v Secretary, Department of Home Affairs (No 2)</em></a>, an Iranian detainee who had never been convicted of a crime and had been held in detention for ten years was ordered to be released, despite the fact he was refusing to cooperate with his removal to Iran (although he was prepared to cooperate with his removal to any other country). The Commonwealth therefore wants the High Court to resolve the uncertainty and give a clear decision.</p>
<p>Previously, in its <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2023/37.html"><em>NZYQ</em> judgment</a>, the High Court distinguished that case from cases in which the detainee seeks to frustrate attempts to deport them. </p>
<p>This justifies the Commonwealth’s approach of treating detainees who have frustrated their deportation as being in a different category. It still, however, leaves it open to the High Court to decide whether they should be released or remain in detention. </p>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2019/17.html">past</a>, the High Court has not been sympathetic to those who have sought to thwart their deportation by telling falsehoods about their identity, noting that the courts are disinclined to allow a party to take advantage of his or her own wrongful conduct. </p>
<p>But whether honest non-cooperation, as opposed to falsehoods, would be treated the same way remains to be seen.</p>
<h2>How many detainees will be affected?</h2>
<p>The decision in this case is likely to affect a wider cohort of people in immigration detention who cannot be deported because they have refused to cooperate. <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-unwanted-high-court-to-determine-the-fate-of-another-127-in-limbo-20240318-p5fdah.html">Some countries</a>, such as Iran, do not accept the involuntary return of their citizens, which means detainees can prevent their deportation to these countries by refusing to cooperate. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/20/australia-asf17-immigration-detainees-high-court-challenge-more-than-170-could-be-freed">The Guardian</a>, a leaked government document estimated that about 170 people currently in detention could be affected, although the minister has refused to discuss numbers or the details of the case while it is before the courts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-court-reasons-on-immigration-ruling-pave-way-for-further-legislation-218699">High Court reasons on immigration ruling pave way for further legislation</a>
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<p>If the High Court were to decide that a person could prevent their deportation by refusing to cooperate and could use this to cause their release into the community, it would give detainees a great incentive to refuse cooperation in deportation matters. </p>
<p>The Commonwealth has strong arguments on its side, but as always it is a matter for the High Court ultimately to decide.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226120/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Twomey has received grants from the ARC and occasionally does consultancy work for governments, Parliaments and inter-governmental bodies. She is also a consultant with Gilbert + Tobin Lawyers, which does pro bono work for refugee claimants.</span></em></p>The government will head back to the High Court next month for another immigration case. If it loses, there could be wide-ranging consequences.Anne Twomey, Professor emerita, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256612024-03-18T02:57:58Z2024-03-18T02:57:58ZWill the AUKUS deal survive in the event of a Trump presidency? All signs point to yes<p>A year ago, the AUKUS agreement was formally announced between Australian and UK Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden. The agreement mapped out the “<a href="https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/optimal-pathway">optimal pathway</a>” for Australia, over the next two decades, to acquire between six and eight sub-surface nuclear propulsion boats, or more simply put, nuclear submarines.</p>
<p>The plan to acquire and build them has been the subject of ongoing debate. That’s largely because there’s limited understanding of the <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/one-year-along-australias-optimal-pathway-to-nuclear-powered-submarines/">need for Australia</a> to acquire submarines of this kind. </p>
<p>Concerns are also emerging over how committed the US really is to the deal, given doubts about whether it has the industrial capability to manufacture enough subs to meet its own needs. All this has fuelled speculation over the project’s viability. </p>
<p>So what is the US obliged to provide Australia with, in terms of submarines, under AUKUS? When will Australia likely get submarines under this deal? And how much can the domestic political and naval challenges facing the US affect how it meets its AUKUS requirements, particularly if Donald Trump is elected president?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-aukus-is-here-to-stay-despite-looming-roadblocks-213112">Why AUKUS is here to stay, despite looming roadblocks</a>
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<h2>The state of play</h2>
<p>Australia is now heavily invested in making AUKUS work, avoiding further <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-11/albanese-submarine-deal-with-france/101145042">policy U-turns</a>. </p>
<p>Aided by some deft Australian diplomacy, in December 2023 the US Congress passed the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670">National Defence Authorisation Act</a> which <a href="https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2023-12-15/passage-priority-aukus-submarine-and-export-control-exemption-legislation-united-states-congress">authorised</a> the transfer of three Virginia class submarines to Australia in the 2030s. Given the almost gridlocked US political system, this was once considered inconceivable. </p>
<p>The act also confirmed arrangements for training Australians in US and UK shipyards and, in turn, the maintenance of their submarines in Australia by Australians. </p>
<p>That does not mean, though, that everything is now set on autopilot. Understandably, the US reserves the right to fulfil its own domestic naval needs first. </p>
<p>But fears of the plans being derailed are misplaced, and suggestions Australia reverse course are problematic. Critics referring to the “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-13/us-defence-announcement-raises-questions-on-aukus-anniversary/103578408">profound impact</a>” of any production slowdown have an important political point to make, drawing attention to the need for urgency and acceleration of the program, not cancellation.</p>
<p>Reports that the rate of production of these Virginia class submarines will dip to 1.3 per year has <a href="https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/usn-virginia-submarine-production-shortfall-worsens/">generated some alarm</a>. This belies the fact the dip in production was anticipated and plans are underway to rectify the shortfall. The two US manufacturing companies that make submarines of this type, <a href="https://www.gdeb.com/">Electric Boat</a> and <a href="https://hii.com/">Huntington Ingalls Industries</a>, are taking measures to accelerate the rate of manufacture to 2.3 boats per year. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-aukus-deal-will-be-hotly-debated-at-the-alp-national-conference-but-its-real-vulnerabilities-lie-in-america-211504">The AUKUS deal will be hotly debated at the ALP national conference, but its real vulnerabilities lie in America</a>
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<p>Australia’s <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/AUKUS-factsheet.pdf">financial and personnel contributions</a> are helping. Plans are still in place that will enable Australia to purchase its first second-hand, but refurbished, Virginia class submarine in the mid-2030s.</p>
<p>That seems a long way off. To cover the gap, Australia’s existing diesel-electric Collins class submarines will be retained, supplemented by a <a href="https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/submarine-rotational-force-west">Submarine Rotational Force-West</a>, which will include UK and US submarines rotating through the Garden Island Naval Facility in Cockburn Sound, south of Fremantle. </p>
<p>While it doesn’t have the recognition of Pearl Harbor, Cockburn Sound is just as significant. In the Pacific war, about 170 allied submarines were based at Cockburn Sound from 1942 to 1945. From there, they protected Allied shipping and interdicted enemy sea lines of communication across the Indian Ocean, as well as the Malacca, Lombok and Sunda straits (in modern-day Indonesia), and across the South China Sea and around Formosa (now Taiwan). </p>
<p>Already, US Navy Virginia class subs have started making routine port calls there. The deterrent effect is already kicking in – and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5f0e31c0-957d-4c4f-a6e3-e597881d8fd9#:%7E:text=Concerns%20about%20the,in%20the%20Pacific.">vociferous criticism of AUKUS</a> suggests that some <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_lady_doth_protest_too_much,_methinks">doth protest too much</a>.</p>
<h2>What if Trump comes to power?</h2>
<p>In the meantime, some worry about what effect Trump’s prospective return to office might have on these plans. </p>
<p>AUKUS is understood to be a game-changer, and political leaders in Washington DC, both Democrat and Republican, understand this. It reflects an enduring overlap of Australian and US interests, not just sentimental attachments. </p>
<p>Australia benefits from US technology in bolstering its military and intelligence capabilities, reducing its “<a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/fear-abandonment">fear of abandonment</a>”.</p>
<p>In turn, the US retains access to facilities in the East Asian hemisphere to monitor security trends and bolster deterrence in ways that suit their <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/188604/united-states-direct-investments-in-the-asia-pacific-region-since-2000/">economic and security interests</a>. This is appreciated by US security <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/05/fact-sheet-u-s-asean-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-one-year-on/">partners in Asia</a>. </p>
<p>Moreover, while Trump has been critical of <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/closer-trumps-years-criticizing-nato-defense-spending/story?id=107201586">NATO and other allies</a>, he has broadly avoided criticising Australia. </p>
<p>The overwhelmingly bipartisan December vote in Congress suggests that fears of the agreement losing support in the US are misplaced. There are no indications Trump is set to change that stance, and there are some compelling reasons for the next US administration to stay the course. </p>
<h2>Why do we need new submarines anyway?</h2>
<p>Back home, though, the Australian government’s message on these submarines has been clouded. </p>
<p>Eager to avoid drawing undue attention to the limitations of the current fleet, it has avoided talking up how potent and useful the replacement subs will be. </p>
<p>This is in spite of the fact that no matter how <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/09/collins-class-submarine-upgrade-will-extend-australias-non-nuclear-boats-to-2048/">well maintained and updated</a> the Collins are, such submarines are no longer viable for long-distance transits required for Australian submarine operations. This is not because of some intrinsic fault with the Australian submarines, but due to their ability to be detected from above.</p>
<p>The surveillance web of persistent and almost saturation <a href="https://spacenews.com/chinas-casic-to-begin-launching-vleo-satellites-in-december/#:%7E:text=The%20very-low%20Earth%20orbit%20%28VLEO%29%20constellation%20is%20to,in%20the%20city%20of%20Wuhan%20earlier%20this%20month.">satellite coverage</a>, coupled with drones and artificial intelligence, makes the wake of the submarine funnels are detectable when they raise their snorkel to recharge batteries. </p>
<p>Much of this surveillance is believed to be operating from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-18/china-s-new-antarctic-station-qinling-in-antarctica-australia/103464840">Chinese facilities in Antarctica</a>, <a href="https://spacenews.com/south-africa-joins-chinas-moon-base-project/">southern Africa</a> and <a href="https://features.csis.org/hiddenreach/china-ground-stations-space/">South America</a>. </p>
<p>With stealth of submarines the only real advantage over surface warships, the usefulness of the current fleet on long transits sinks quickly. This leaves nuclear propulsion as the only viable path for countries that must traverse vast ocean distances even to cover their own waters. </p>
<p>For Australia, a transit from any capital city across to Fremantle cannot happen without exposure to detection. In wartime, that presents a catastrophic risk only surmounted by remaining underwater for the duration.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-aukus-deal-will-be-hotly-debated-at-the-alp-national-conference-but-its-real-vulnerabilities-lie-in-america-211504">The AUKUS deal will be hotly debated at the ALP national conference, but its real vulnerabilities lie in America</a>
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<p>Beyond recouping stealth, the benefits of the new nuclear submarines are considerable. Australian submarines are intended to help manage vital shipping lanes. </p>
<p>The new vessels can travel faster than the current fleet (about 20 knots on average instead of six-and-a-half knots) and stay on station for longer, bolstering the deterrent effect. </p>
<p>The main constraint is food for the crew. A fleet of up to eight nuclear subs should generate three times the effective deployable time compared with the current Australian fleet because it can deploy faster, loiter longer and remain undetected, without needing to recharge batteries.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225661/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Blaxland is Professor of International Security and Intelligence Studies and Director of the Australian National University’s (ANU) North America Liaison Office in Washington DC. He is author of a number of works, including Revealing Secrets: An Unofficial History of Australian Signals Intelligence and the Advent of Cyber (UNSWP, 2023, with Clare Birgin).</span></em></p>Amid reports of a dip in US production of nuclear submarines and concerns about the future of the agreement under Donald Trump, some have questioned the viability of AUKUS. But they need not worry.John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2248502024-03-04T02:54:09Z2024-03-04T02:54:09ZOver-emphasising some things, underplaying others: ASIO’s threat assessment is underpinned by confusing logic<p>Recently, Australia’s internal security agency <a href="https://www.asio.gov.au/director-generals-annual-threat-assessment-2024">declared</a> there is a greater threat to Australian security than new terrorist attacks. Instead, it’s systemic and existential. The report read:</p>
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<p>In 2024, threats to our way of life have surpassed terrorism as Australia’s principle security concern.</p>
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<p>So, what is the principle security concern? It’s foreign interference.</p>
<p>In its <a href="https://www.transparency.gov.au/publications/home-affairs/australian-security-intelligence-organisation/asio-annual-report-2022-23/asio-annual-report-2022-23">last annual report</a>, the agency, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), reported 2016 was its busiest year in the past decade for disrupting terrorist attacks. 2022 was its peak year for disrupting foreign spies. </p>
<p>Amid ongoing worldwide conflicts and a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/28/australian-politician-sold-out-to-foreign-regime-after-being-recruited-by-spies-asio-boss-says">former politician</a> collaborating with a foreign country, is this assessment adequately capturing what Australians need to know about all the possible threats?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-sabotage-and-why-is-the-asio-chief-worried-about-it-224731">Explainer: what is sabotage and why is the ASIO chief worried about it?</a>
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<h2>Terrorism only ‘possible’</h2>
<p>In the latest annual threat assessment, ASIO is still assessing the terror threat as lower than in earlier years. In 2022, it was changed from a “probable” likelihood (where it sat for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/28/australias-terrorism-threat-level-changes-to-possible-after-eight-years-as-probable">eight years</a>), and it’s now rated as “possible”. </p>
<p>This is against the backdrop of growing community unrest since October 7 last year, when Hamas launched the <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/hamass-october-7-attack-visualizing-data">third-deadliest</a> terrorist attack in the world since 1970, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. </p>
<p>Israel’s response has been a war on Hamas in Gaza, which has resulted in <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/29/gaza-death-toll-surpasses-30000-with-no-let-up-in-israeli-bombardment">tens of thousands</a> of Palestinian fatalities, many of them women and children, though it’s difficult to verify the exact figure. Regardless of the precise numbers, the rage and hatred prompted by these deaths can fuel extremism, both here and overseas.</p>
<p>Two leading US Middle East security specialists have flagged the danger of <a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/anticipating-the-gaza-driven-terrorism-surge">new attacks</a> both in the Middle East and beyond in response to these events. They also outlined the actual incidents that have happened since October 7, attesting to the new heightened risk. In ASIO’s view, we should not discount the risk at home even while keeping the terrorist threat level unchanged.</p>
<h2>Threat concern reveals mixed logic</h2>
<p>The most pertinent threat to Australia is foreign espionage and foreign interference. The agency says it’s “deeper and broader than you may think”. </p>
<p>Moreover, ASIO says, the threat level is “certain” (not merely “possible” or “probable”, as the terrorist threat had been).</p>
<p>This latest threat assessment, issued personally by the director general, Mike Burgess, calls out one country in particular, but doesn’t name it. He sketches a foreign espionage and influence-seeking campaign that is pervasive and well-resourced. He mentioned the specific case of an Australian politician (way back before 2018) who was, he says, collaborating with the foreign spies and selling out Australia in the process. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/amid-warnings-of-spy-hives-why-isnt-australia-using-its-tough-counter-espionage-laws-more-200440">Amid warnings of 'spy hives', why isn't Australia using its tough counter-espionage laws more?</a>
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<p>Interestingly, Burgess says that ASIO foiled the plans of the foreign county and neutralised the threat from this politician.</p>
<p>In fact, Burgess went on to say the tradecraft of this adversary (how its spies do their business) has been good, but not good enough to defeat ASIO, supported by its intelligence partners.</p>
<p>This is just one of several points where the logic of the 2024 threat assessment begins to break down. Can the unnamed foreign country really be an existential threat if ASIO has cracked its espionage operations and disrupted its efforts at political influence? Is Australia’s security more threatened by these failed spies than by terrorists who may achieve a mass casualty attack involving Australian victims? </p>
<h2>Far-right extremism downplayed</h2>
<p>We don’t know which country is the source of this alleged threat to Australia’s way of life, but if it is China, there is room to question the ASIO line of thinking. </p>
<p>In the decade of its expansion of espionage and covert influence operations, China’s overall level of influence in major liberal democracies has <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/09/28/how-global-public-opinion-of-china-has-shifted-in-the-xi-era/">radically declined</a>, not increased. This is largely because of China’s anti-democratic or aggressive actions on the world stage.</p>
<p>In fact, as Burgess notes, ASIO faces dilemmas in prioritising the threats it follows and how to present them publicly. He’s limited by what can be revealed publicly, so omission may be distorting how the general public understands what he is saying.</p>
<p>He says terrorism remains a pervasive threat “even with a lower national threat level”. Well at that point, while we can agree with him, we might be forgiven for being a little confused. </p>
<p>The confusion is compounded by the way in which the annual threat assessment and other ASIO reporting appear to downplay right-wing extremism. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/asios-language-shift-on-terrorism-is-a-welcome-acknowledgment-of-the-power-of-words-157400">ASIO's language shift on terrorism is a welcome acknowledgment of the power of words</a>
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<p>The language on this issue in the 2024 threat assessment is defensible to a point (it says “the threat persists”), but the significance of this appears to be softened. Now, ASIO says right-wing extremists are “primarily focused on recruitment and radicalistaion”. </p>
<p>The future threats to internal security implied by the intimidating behaviour of neo-Nazis on Australia Day in Sydney this year, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/26/balaclava-clad-neo-nazis-held-by-police-after-swarming-sydney-train">condemned by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese</a>, do not appear to be adequately captured by the assessment of focusing on recruitment and radicalisation, even if that is true. </p>
<p>We can commend ASIO for its transparency under the directorship of Burgess and for its obvious operational successes. </p>
<p>On the other hand, we have now had five annual threat assessments from him. As a body of work meant to inform, reassure and even alert Australians, there are several reasons to question the effectiveness of its current format and guiding logic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224850/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Austin is a co-founder of the Social Cyber Institute.</span></em></p>ASIO is effective in defeating threats and being transparent in reporting on them, but its latest annual threat assessment leaves room to question its strategic priorities.Greg Austin, Adjunct Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221652024-02-05T14:19:18Z2024-02-05T14:19:18ZSurveillance and the state: South Africa’s proposed new spying law is open for comment – an expert points out its flaws<p>In early 2021, the South African Constitutional Court <a href="https://collections.concourt.org.za/bitstream/handle/20.500.12144/36631/%5bJudgment%5d%20CCT%20278%20of%2019%20and%20279%20of%2019%20AmaBhungane%20Centre%20for%20Investigative%20Journalism%20v%20Minister%20of%20Justice%20and%20Others.pdf?sequence=42&isAllowed=y">found</a> that the country’s <a href="https://www.ssa.gov.za/">State Security Agency</a>, through its signals intelligence agency, the <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2013-06-21-00-spy-wars-south-africa-is-not-innocent/">National Communication Centre</a>, was conducting <a href="https://privacyinternational.org/long-read/827/how-bulk-interception-works">bulk interception of electronic signals</a> unlawfully. </p>
<p>Bulk interception <a href="https://privacyinternational.org/long-read/827/how-bulk-interception-works">involves</a> the surveillance of electronic signals, including communication signals and internet traffic, on a very large scale, and often on an untargeted basis. If intelligence agents misuse this capability, it can have a massive, negative impact on the privacy of innocent people. </p>
<p>The court found that there was no law authorising the practice of bulk surveillance and limiting its potential abuse. It ordered that the agency cease such surveillance until there was. </p>
<p>In November 2023, the South African presidency responded to the ruling by tabling a bill to, among other things, plug the gaps identified by the country’s highest court. The <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/B40-2023_General_Intelligence_Laws.pdf">General Intelligence Laws Amendment Bill</a> sets out how the surveillance centre, based in Pretoria, the capital city, should be regulated.</p>
<p>I have researched intelligence and surveillance for over a decade and also served on the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">2018 High Level Review Panel on the State Security Agency</a>. <a href="https://intelwatch.org.za/2023/11/17/briefing-note-general-intelligence-laws-amendment-bill-gilab/">In my view</a>, the bill lacks basic controls over how this highly invasive form of surveillance should be used. This compromises citizens’ privacy and increases the potential for the state to repeat previous abuses. I discuss some of these abuses below. </p>
<h2>The dangers</h2>
<p>Intelligence agencies use bulk interception to put large numbers of people, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/03/everyone-is-under-surveillance-now-says-whistleblower-edward-snowden">even whole populations</a>, under surveillance. This is regardless of whether they are suspected of serious crimes or threats to national security. Their intention is to obtain strategic intelligence about <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/Signals-Intelligence/Overview/">longer term external threats</a> to a country’s security, and that may be difficult to obtain by other means. </p>
<p>Former United States National Security Agency contractor <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-nsa-whistleblower-surveillance">Edward Snowden’s</a> leaks of classified intelligence documents showed how these capabilities had been used to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN25T3CJ/">spy on US citizens</a>. The leaks also showed that British intelligence <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2016/12/08/british-spying-tentacles-reach-across-africa-s-heads-of-states-and-business-leaders_5045668_3212.html">spied on African</a> trade negotiators, politicians and business people to give the UK government and its partners unfair trade advantages.</p>
<p>In the case of South Africa, around 2005, rogue agents in the erstwhile <a href="https://irp.fas.org/world/rsa/index.html">National Intelligence Agency</a> misused bulk interception to <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/igreport0.pdf">spy on</a> senior members of the ruling African National Congress, the opposition, business people and civil servants. This was despite the agency’s mandate being to focus on foreign threats. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-new-intelligence-bill-is-meant-to-stem-abuses-whats-good-and-bad-about-it-220473">South Africa's new intelligence bill is meant to stem abuses – what's good and bad about it</a>
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<p>These rogue agents were able to abuse bulk interception because there was no law controlling and limiting how these capabilities were to be used. A 2008 commission of inquiry, appointed by then-minister of intelligence <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/ronald-ronnie-kasrils">Ronnie Kasrils</a>, <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/international-development/Assets/Documents/PDFs/csrc-background-papers/Intelligence-In-a-Constitutional-Democracy.pdf">called</a> for this law to be enacted. The government refused to do so until it was forced to act by the Constitutional Court ruling. </p>
<p>The government <a href="https://www.anchoredinlaw.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Answering-Affidavit-DG-State-Security-Agency.pdf">justified</a> its refusal to act by claiming that the National Communication Centre was regulated adequately through the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act39of1994.pdf">National Strategic Intelligence Act</a>. The court rejected this argument because the act failed to address the regulation of bulk interception directly. </p>
<h2>What the Constitutional Court said</h2>
<p>The 2021 Constitutional Court <a href="https://collections.concourt.org.za/bitstream/handle/20.500.12144/36631/%5bJudgment%5d%20CCT%20278%20of%2019%20and%20279%20of%2019%20AmaBhungane%20Centre%20for%20Investigative%20Journalism%20v%20Minister%20of%20Justice%20and%20Others.pdf?sequence=42&isAllowed=y">judgment</a> did not address whether bulk interception should ever be acceptable as a surveillance practice. However, it appeared to accept the <a href="https://www.anchoredinlaw.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Answering-Affidavit-DG-State-Security-Agency.pdf">agency’s argument</a> that it was an internationally accepted method of monitoring transnational signals. But the legitimacy of this practice is <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3115985-APPLICANTS-REPLY-to-GOVT-OBSERVATIONS-PDF.html">highly contested internationally</a>. That’s because this form of surveillance usually extends far beyond what is needed to protect national security.</p>
<p>The court <a href="https://collections.concourt.org.za/bitstream/handle/20.500.12144/36631/%5bJudgment%5d%20CCT%20278%20of%2019%20and%20279%20of%2019%20AmaBhungane%20Centre%20for%20Investigative%20Journalism%20v%20Minister%20of%20Justice%20and%20Others.pdf?sequence=42&isAllow">indicated</a> that it would want to see a law authorising bulk surveillance that sets out “the nuts and bolts of the Centre’s functions”. The law would also need to spell out in</p>
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<p>clear, precise terms the manner, circumstances or duration of the collection, gathering, evaluation and analysis of domestic and foreign intelligence.</p>
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<p>The court would also be looking for detail on</p>
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<p>how these various types of intelligence must be captured, copied, stored, or distributed.</p>
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<h2>What the amendment bill says</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/B40-2023_General_Intelligence_Laws.pdf">amendment bill</a> provides for the proper establishment of the National Communication Centre and its functions. This includes the collection and analysis of intelligence from electronic signals, and information security or cryptography. A parliamentary <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee/335/">ad hoc committee</a> has set a <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/press-releases/media-statement-ad-hoc-committee-general-intelligence-laws-amendment-bill-extends-deadline-written-submissions#:%7E:text=Unfortunately%2C%20the%20timeline%20to%20process,over%206%20000%20written%20submissions.">deadline</a> of 15 February 2024 for public comment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-intelligence-agency-needs-speedy-reform-or-it-must-be-shut-down-200386">South Africa's intelligence agency needs speedy reform - or it must be shut down</a>
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<p>The bill says, in vague terms, that the centre shall gather, correlate, evaluate and analyse relevant intelligence to identify any threat or potential threat to national security. But it doesn’t provide any of the details the court said it would be looking for. This is a major weakness.</p>
<p>The bill has one strength, though. It states that the surveillance centre needs to seek the permission of a retired judge, assisted by two interception experts, before conducting bulk interception. The judge will be appointed by the president, and the experts by the minister in charge of intelligence. The position is <a href="https://www.ssa.gov.za/AboutUs">located in the presidency</a>.</p>
<p>However, it does not spell out the bases on which the judge will take decisions. The fact that the judge would be an executive appointment also raises doubts about his or her independence.</p>
<h2>Inadequate benchmarking</h2>
<p>The bill fails to incorporate international benchmarks on the regulation of strategic intelligence and bulk interception in a democracy. These require that a domestic legal framework provide what the European Court of Human Rights <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%22itemid%22:%5B%22001-210077%22%5D%7D">has referred to</a> as “end-to-end” safeguards covering all stages of bulk interception.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-intelligence-watchdog-is-failing-civil-society-how-to-restore-its-credibility-195121">South Africa's intelligence watchdog is failing civil society. How to restore its credibility</a>
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<p>The European Court <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%22itemid%22:%5B%22001-210077%22%5D%7D">has stated</a> that a domestic legal framework should define</p>
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<li><p>the grounds on which bulk interception may be authorised</p></li>
<li><p>the circumstances</p></li>
<li><p>the procedures to be followed for granting authorisation </p></li>
<li><p>procedures for selecting, examining and using material obtained from intercepts</p></li>
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<p>The framework <a href="https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#%7B%22itemid%22:%5B%22001-210077%22%5D%7D">should also set out</a> </p>
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<li><p>the precautions to be taken when communicating the material to other parties</p></li>
<li><p>limits on the duration of interception </p></li>
<li><p>procedures for the storage of intercepted material</p></li>
<li><p>the circumstances in which such material must be erased and destroyed </p></li>
<li><p>supervision procedures by an independent authority</p></li>
<li><p>compliance procedures for review of surveillance once it has been completed.</p></li>
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<p>The bill does not meet these requirements. </p>
<p>Incorporating these details in regulations would not be adequate on its own, as the bill gives the intelligence minister too much power to set the ground rules for bulk interception. These rules are also unlikely to be subjected to the same level of public scrutiny as the bill. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/zondo-commissions-report-on-south-africas-intelligence-agency-is-important-but-flawed-186582">Zondo Commission's report on South Africa's intelligence agency is important but flawed</a>
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<p>The fact that the presidency is attempting to get away with the most minimal regulation of bulk interception raises doubt about its <a href="https://www.stateofthenation.gov.za/assets/downloads/State%20Capture%20Commission%20Response.pdf">stated commitment</a> to intelligence reform to limit the scope for abuse, and parliament needs correct the bill’s clear deficiencies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Duncan receives funding from the British Academy and is a director of the non-governmental organisation Intelwatch. </span></em></p>The fact that the presidency is attempting to get away with minimal regulation of bulk interception raises doubt about its commitment to ending intelligence abuse.Jane Duncan, Professor of Digital Society, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2204732024-01-11T15:54:30Z2024-01-11T15:54:30ZSouth Africa’s new intelligence bill is meant to stem abuses – what’s good and bad about it<p>When South Africa became a constitutional democracy <a href="https://www.britannica.com/question/How-did-apartheid-end">in 1994</a>, it replaced its apartheid-era intelligence apparatus with a new one aimed at serving the country’s new democratic dispensation. However, the regime of former president Jacob Zuma, 2009-2018, deviated from this path. It <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">abused</a> the intelligence services to serve his political and allegdly corrupt ends. Now the country is taking steps to remedy the situation.</p>
<p>In November 2023, the presidency published the <a href="https://pmg.org.za/bill/1197/">General Intelligence Laws Amendment Bill</a>. It proposes overhauling the civilian intelligence agency, the <a href="http://www.ssa.gov.za/">State Security Agency</a>, to address the <a href="https://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">abuses</a>.</p>
<p>The bill is extremely broad in scope. It intends to amend 12 laws – including the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act39of1994.pdf">main</a> <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/a65-020.pdf">intelligence</a> <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/docs/120224oversight_0.PDF">laws</a> of the democratic era. </p>
<p>Parliament has set itself a <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/38063/">1 March deadline</a> to complete work on the bill before it dissolves for the national election expected between <a href="https://www.elections.org.za/pw/elections/whats-new-in-the-2024-elections-electoral-amendment-act">May and August</a>. </p>
<p>I have researched intelligence and surveillance for over a decade and also served on the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">2018 High Level Review Panel on the State Security Agency</a>.</p>
<p>In my view, some of the proposals in the bill risk replacing the old abuses with new ones. The bill seeks to broaden intelligence powers drastically but fails to address <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/38207/">longstanding weaknesses in their oversight</a>. </p>
<h2>Ending abuse</h2>
<p>The bill is meant to respond to major criticisms of the State Security Agency during Zuma’s presidency. The critics include the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">High Level Review Panel</a> and the <a href="https://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">Commission of Inquiry into State Capture</a>. </p>
<p>The main criticism of the panel appointed by Zuma’s successor Cyril Ramaphosa in 2018 was that under Zuma, the executive <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">repurposed</a> the agency to keep him in power, along with his supporters and others dependent on his patronage. In 2009, he merged the erstwhile domestic intelligence agency, the National Intelligence Agency, and the foreign agency, the <a href="https://www.ssa.gov.za/AboutUs/Branches">South African Secret Service</a>, by <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/security/national-security/ssa-takes-shape-legislation-to-follow/">presidential proclamation</a>, to centralise intelligence. This made it easier for his regime to control intelligence to achieve nefarious ends. The state capture commission made <a href="https://www.saflii.org/images/state-capture-commission-report-part-5-vol1.pdf">similar findings</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-surveillance-law-is-changing-but-citizens-privacy-is-still-at-risk-214508">South Africa’s surveillance law is changing but citizens’ privacy is still at risk</a>
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<p>The most important proposal in the bill is to abolish the <a href="https://nationalgovernment.co.za/units/view/42/state-security-agency-ssa">State Security Agency</a>. It is to be replaced by two separate agencies: one for foreign intelligence, and the other for domestic. The proposed new South African Intelligence Service (foreign) and the South African Intelligence Agency (domestic) will have separate mandates.</p>
<p>Abolishing the State Security Agency would be an important step towards accountability, as set out in the 1994 <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/white-papers/intelligence-white-paper-01-jan-1995#:%7E:text=The%20goal%20of%20this%20White,relevant%2C%20credible%20and%20reliable%20intelligence.">White Paper on Intelligence</a>. </p>
<p>The proposed names of the envisioned new agencies have symbolic importance. They suggest a shift away from a focus on state security, or protection of those in positions of power. Instead, it puts the focus back on human security. This is the protection of broader society, as <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/white-papers/intelligence-white-paper-01-jan-1995#:%7E:text=The%20goal%20of%20this%20White,relevant%2C%20credible%20and%20reliable%20intelligence.">required</a> by the 1994 White Paper.</p>
<h2>The dangers of over-broad definitions</h2>
<p>However, the new mandates given to the two new agencies, and the definitions they rely on, are so broad that abuse of their powerful spying capabilities is almost a foregone conclusion.</p>
<p>The bill says the new agencies will be responsible for collecting and analysing intelligence relating to threats or potential threats to national security in accordance with <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/constitution/chp11.html#:%7E:text=198.,to%20seek%20a%20better%20life.">the constitution</a>.</p>
<p>The bill defines national security as</p>
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<p>the capabilities, measures and activities of the state to pursue or advance any threat, any potential threat, any opportunity, any potential opportunity or the security of the Republic and its people …</p>
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<p>This definition is extremely expansive. It allows the intelligence services to undertake any activity that could advance South Africa’s interests. This is regardless of whether there are actual national security threats. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-intelligence-watchdog-is-failing-civil-society-how-to-restore-its-credibility-195121">South Africa's intelligence watchdog is failing civil society. How to restore its credibility</a>
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<p>This creates the potential for overlap with the mandates of other state entities. However, unlike these, the intelligence agencies will be able to work secretly, using their extremely invasive <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2013-06-21-00-spy-wars-south-africa-is-not-innocent/">surveillance</a> <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-07-28-the-awful-state-of-lawful-interception-in-sa-part-two-surveillance-technology-thats-above-the-law/">capabilities</a>.</p>
<p>Such capabilities should only be used in exceptional circumstances when the country is under legitimate threat. To normalise their use in everyday government functions threatens democracy.</p>
<p>Intelligence overreach has happened elsewhere. Governments are increasingly requiring intelligence agencies to ensure that policymakers enjoy <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/national-security-surveillance-in-southern-africa-9780755640225/">decision advantages</a> in a range of areas. These include bolstering trade advantages over other countries.</p>
<p>For example, whistleblower <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-nsa-whistleblower-surveillance">Edward Snowden’s</a> leaks of classified US and UK intelligence documents showed how the countries misused broad interpretations of national security to engage in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/25907502">industrial espionage</a>.</p>
<p>The UK government used its powerful <a href="https://www.gchq.gov.uk/">signals intelligence capability</a> to <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2016/12/08/british-spying-tentacles-reach-across-africa-s-heads-of-states-and-business-leaders_5045668_3212.html">spy on</a> African politicians, diplomats and business people during trade negotiations. These abuses mean intelligence mandates should be narrowed and state intelligence power should be reduced.</p>
<h2>Human security definition of national security</h2>
<p>The State Security Agency used its presentation to parliament on the bill to seek broad mandates. Its <a href="https://pmg.org.za/files/231129Presentation_of_GILAB_Final.pptx">presentation</a> says it seeks to give effect to the national security principles in <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/constitution/chp11.html#:%7E:text=198.,to%20seek%20a%20better%20life.">section 198</a> of the constitution. The section states that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>national security must reflect the resolve of South Africans, as individuals and as a nation, to live as equals, to live in peace and harmony, to be free from fear and want and to seek a better life.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This principle is actually based on the human security definition of national security. The <a href="https://www.un.org/en/ga/">United Nations General Assembly</a> calls this freedom from fear and freedom from want. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/surveillance-laws-are-failing-to-protect-privacy-rights-what-we-found-in-six-african-countries-170373">Surveillance laws are failing to protect privacy rights: what we found in six African countries</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In its broadest sense, human security protects individuals from a wide range of threats and addresses their underlying drivers. These include <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231962570_Critical_Human_Security_Studies">poverty, underdevelopment and deprivation</a>. State security, on the other hand, is about protecting the state from threats. </p>
<p>If social issues are <a href="https://www.libraryofsocialscience.com/assets/pdf/Waever-Securitization.pdf">securitised</a> – or treated as national security issues requiring intervention by the state’s security services – it becomes difficult to distinguish the work of these agencies from the social welfare arms of the state.</p>
<h2>What needs to happen</h2>
<p>International relations scholar Neil MacFarlane and political scientist Yuen Foong Khong <a href="https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000147585">suggested</a> in 2006 that it was possible to address this conundrum by maintaining the focus on broader society as the entity that needs protection, rather than the state. </p>
<p>Legislators need to take a <a href="https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000147585">similar approach</a> when debating the bill. They should narrow the focus of the envisaged two new agencies to domestic and foreign threats of organised violence against society, such as genocide or terrorism. By doing so, they would still be recognising the best of what human security has to offer as an intelligence doctrine, while providing a much more appropriate focus for civilian intelligence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Duncan receives funding from the British Academy and is a director of Intelwatch, a non-governmental organisation devoted to strengthening democratic oversight of state and private intelligence. </span></em></p>The bill seeks greater intelligence powers but neglects oversight.Jane Duncan, Professor of Digital Society, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2204572024-01-04T15:44:32Z2024-01-04T15:44:32ZSpycatcher scandal: newly released documents from the Thatcher era reveal the changing nature of government secrecy<p>I grew up in Tasmania in the 1980s. The capital city, Hobart, had a bit of a “living at the edge of the world” feeling in those days. It seemed about as far away from anywhere as you could get. So, I remember the thrill when the first hints of the “Spycatcher” scandal hit. A British spy had “secretly” been living only a few miles away in the sleepy town of Cygnet. To a child, it all felt impossibly adventurous.</p>
<p>The British National Archives has now released a <a href="https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/about/news/latest-cabinet-office-files-released/">slew of Cabinet Office papers</a> dealing with the extraordinary series of events surrounding this man and his attempts to publish Spycatcher, a memoir that promised to spill secrets on double agents and assassination plots. Margaret Thatcher, the prime minister at the time, was so concerned about the book’s contents that the UK government launched multiple legal attempts to have it barred from publication. The most famous of these cases unfolded in Australia, where Thatcher had dispatched her top civil servant to fight the former MI5 operative Peter Wright in court.</p>
<p>The documents lay bare how fearful she was about the book. In communications between government officials, we see the intensity of briefings and updates flowing into Number 10 as the court case unfolded in Australia in late 1986. The government was determined to stand by the principle that security information must remain confidential. </p>
<p>The prime minister followed the exchanges closely, as revealed by her <a href="https://cdn.nationalarchives.gov.uk/documents/release-2023-12/prem19-1952.pdf">handwritten comments across documents</a>. These ranged from brief scribbles like “Bad news” (on an update relating to potential revelation of sensitive documents in court), to noting that “the consequences of publication would be enormous” and commenting in frustration that “surely Wright himself is in breach of the Official Secrets Act?”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An archived government document discussing the Spycatcher scandal, including a margin note from Margaret Thatcher about the 'enormous consequences' of the book being released." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567825/original/file-20240104-17-2k1i9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=647&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thatcher’s margin notes reveal her concerns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cdn.nationalarchives.gov.uk/documents/release-2023-12/prem19-1952.pdf">National Archives</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The cast of characters in this saga is in itself rather breathtaking. It begins, of course, with the elusive Wright – in my mind’s eye in the 1980s, I had expected him to be a dapper figure in a pinstriped suit. The picture that hit the press at the time instead revealed an old man in a rather incongruous broad-brimmed hat, who did not exude the requisite level of mystery.</p>
<p>Thatcher herself also looms large, as does Robert Armstrong – the head of the civil service she sent across the globe to Sydney like a gun-for-hire, in an extraordinary attempt to prevent the book’s publication. In court, Armstrong would face none other than the up-and-coming Australian barrister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/14/malcolm-turnbull-spycatcher-lawyer-prime-minister">Malcolm Turnbull</a>, appearing for Wright’s publishers.</p>
<p>Turnbull would go on to be Australia’s prime minister 30 years later, but not before eliciting from Armstrong in court his infamous description of having been <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?collection=journals&handle=hein.journals/jlsocty16&id=217&men_tab=srchresults">“economical with the truth”</a> in a letter he had written that was relevant to the case.</p>
<p>What the papers released by the National Archives provide is something rather more than just a good story, however. They provide a rare window into how the British government worked in the 1980s. They offer a marker against which to measure what has changed and what has remained the same in the conventions and traditions that underpin the nation’s political system.</p>
<h2>That was then …</h2>
<p>In the 1980s, aspects of British government could remain shrouded in mystery without expectation of public scrutiny. Even the names of the leaders of MI5 were a closely guarded secret, never mind the workings of their organisation. It was simply not the done thing to discuss issues of national security in public. </p>
<p>The institutional settings of Whitehall and Westminster were built for “governing in private”. Advice was offered and arguments made behind closed doors and away from the public gaze. This applied not just to the security agencies but the civil service in general.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5803/ldselect/ldconst/258/25804.htm">British constitutional theory</a>, the civil service was an indivisible part of the executive government. It was not an independent creature of the parliament, or indeed the wider public. The job of civil servants was to serve ministers in non-partisan ways, based on deep reserves of mutual trust between the political and administrative leaders of government. Armstrong could be sent to the Antipodes knowing that he carried with him the total trust of the prime minister, and vice versa.</p>
<p>His goal, of course, was to stop Wright’s memoir from ever seeing the light of day. In the 1980s, it was still possible for government to believe it might be able to control the spread of information. In a pre-internet age, it still made sense to try very hard to prevent the publication of a book, knowing that its contents could potentially be stopped or contained. Such ideas seem dreamily quixotic in our modern digital age.</p>
<h2>This is now …</h2>
<p>Today, the luxury of being able to govern in private, to carefully consider actions with a degree of secrecy, has given way to far greater scrutiny. Modern expectations of transparency mean that governments are now governing in public, whether they like it or not. Where once the heads of MI5 had their identities protected, we now find them striding the public stage. Stella Rimington, the director general of MI5 in the mid 1990s, published her own <a href="https://shop.nationalarchives.gov.uk/products/open-secret">autobiography</a> in 2001. Her successors give regular public speeches and updates discussing perspectives on national security in ways that would have been unthinkable in the 1980s.</p>
<p>In theory, the status of the wider civil service has not changed – it remains an indivisible part of the executive government. But the bonds of trust have begun to fray. Few of Armstrong’s successors in the civil service could claim the complete trust of a prime minister. And amid the blame games of modern government, ministers and officials can now find themselves in public disagreement, teasing apart the threads of indivisibility that previously kept them in a mutual embrace.</p>
<p>But perhaps the most dramatic change is to the information environment. The relative futility of trying to prevent information from entering the public domain is self-evident. Information – both true and false – flies into the public domain like water through a colander.</p>
<p>A modern government rarely makes the mistake of drawing attention to a set of memoirs by going to great, public lengths to try and stop their publication. Wright died a millionaire. His book was a bestseller. The irony is that he had the British government to thank for boosting his sales. Their attempt to quash what turned out to be a rather innocuous book turned it into an international cause celebre.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A government document outlining concerns about the implication of allowing Spycatcher to be published." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=186&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=186&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=186&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567829/original/file-20240104-17-allyg3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scandal generates book sales.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cdn.nationalarchives.gov.uk/documents/release-2023-12/prem19-1952.pdf">National Archives</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Spycatcher saga is a reminder that the nature of British government has changed. It shines a light on the extent to which something seen as an extraordinary public scandal in the 1980s would be seen as far less remarkable today. Modern governments are far more used to the norms of governing in public – for good or ill – in our more transparent age.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220457/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis C Grube received funding from the Australian Research Council in 2013 (grant number DE130101131) for a previous project on the public face of government.</span></em></p>Cabinet Office papers expose Thatcher’s anxiety over the famous book, and the difference between governing in the 1980s and the modern information age.Dennis C Grube, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2192262023-12-06T11:20:55Z2023-12-06T11:20:55ZWhat is the government’s preventative detention bill? Here’s how the laws will work and what they mean for Australia’s detention system<p>After a week of non-stop headlines, the government’s preventative detention legislation <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-06/preventative-detention-legislation-has-passed/103197024">passed</a> the lower house, just in time for the end of the sitting year.</p>
<p>The new laws will allow former immigration detainees to be re-detained if they are judged to pose a high risk of committing serious violent or sexual crime.</p>
<p>The legislation comes after a 20-year legal precedent was overturned in November, when the <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-court-reasons-on-immigration-ruling-pave-way-for-further-legislation-218699">High Court found</a> the government could not detain people indefinitely – regardless of whether they had a criminal history. </p>
<p>The High Court’s decision was celebrated by <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/about/news/media-releases/commission-commends-high-court-ruling-indefinite-immigration-detention">human rights organisations</a> and some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/09/australia-mandatory-indefinite-immigration-detention-regime-high-court-decision">legal scholars</a>. It was seen as a rare opportunity to reshape Australia’s immigration detention policies in line with international law, the constitutional separation of powers, and principles of procedural justice and proportionality. </p>
<p>Yet the opportunity for much-needed reform has been frustrated by political point-scoring. The opposition and tabloid media have stirred up moral panic about the release of “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-demands-apology-for-o-neil-s-claims-he-voted-to-protect-paedophiles-20231130-p5eo3l.html">hardened criminals</a>”. Anxious to avoid accusations of being “soft”, the government has adopted the same discourse. </p>
<p>Both the government and opposition agree it is necessary to put “dangerous” people back behind bars to protect the community. In a clear break from parliamentary process, the vote on the legislation was scheduled for a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/teal-mps-slam-perversion-of-democracy-on-immigration-laws-20231206-p5epeg.html">non-sitting day</a>, giving parliamentarians little opportunity to scrutinise or debate the legislation. </p>
<p>So what do these laws actually do, what do they mean for those most affected by them, and what is being lost in the current debate?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-governments-announcement-tsunami-overshadowed-by-crisis-over-ex-detainees-219215">View from The Hill: government's announcement tsunami overshadowed by crisis over ex-detainees</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are preventative detention laws?</h2>
<p>The new laws will allow the immigration minister (currently Andrew Giles) to apply to a court to re-detain people who have been released from immigration detention. </p>
<p>For an application to be successful, <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-governments-announcement-tsunami-overshadowed-by-crisis-over-ex-detainees-219215">two conditions must be met</a>. </p>
<p>First, the person must have been convicted of a crime (either in Australia or overseas) that carries a sentence of at least seven years’ imprisonment. </p>
<p>Second, the court must agree the individual poses “an unacceptable risk of committing a serious violent or sexual offence”, and that there is “no less restrictive measure available” to keep the community safe. </p>
<p>The involvement of the courts in making these decisions is a welcome safeguard in the context of a detention system in which people are routinely incarcerated for years or even decades without court oversight. The minister’s previous “<a href="https://www.nswccl.org.au/time_to_review_immigration_minister_god_like_powers">god-like powers</a>” in this area have been widely criticised. </p>
<p>Yet the human rights implications of detaining people who have already served their time are <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-security-watchdog-labels-preventative-detention-laws-a-disgrace-20231201-p5eof6.html">significant</a>. Re-detention is likely to be experienced as a secondary punishment, which is contrary to principles of proportionality and procedural fairness. </p>
<p>It is also notable that these laws only apply to people who are not Australian citizens. </p>
<p>Australians with the same criminal histories and risk profiles will not be subject to preventative detention under this legislation. This raises concerns about the laws’ validity, with some suggesting the targeted nature of the legislation may leave it vulnerable to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-governments-announcement-tsunami-overshadowed-by-crisis-over-ex-detainees-219215">High Court challenge</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-court-reasons-on-immigration-ruling-pave-way-for-further-legislation-218699">High Court reasons on immigration ruling pave way for further legislation</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why were these laws brought in?</h2>
<p>On November 8, the High Court of Australia <a href="https://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/showCase/2023/HCA/37">ruled unanimously</a> that if there is no real prospect of a person being deported in the forseeable future, it is unlawful for the government to detain them indefinitely.</p>
<p>The case was brought by a Rohingya man, known as NZYQ, who was no longer eligible for an Australian visa after being convicted of a sexual crime. As he’s a member of a <a href="https://www.hrw.org/tag/rohingya">persecuted minority</a>, he could not be deported back to Myanmar.</p>
<p>With no visa and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/07/nzyq-immigrant-australia-resettle-attempt-high-court">no country</a> willing to accept him, he had been moved into indefinite immigration detention after completing his prison sentence in 2018.</p>
<p>The court’s decision triggered the release of more than <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/number-of-freed-detainees-reaches-141-20231126-p5emtv">140 people</a>, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-06/fourth-person-arrested-after-detainee-released/103197184?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other">four of whom</a> have since been arrested for various alleged crimes. </p>
<p>People with no criminal history – including a man who had spent <a href="https://www.hrlc.org.au/news/2023/11/30/ned-kelly-emeralds-free#:%7E:text=Ned%20Kelly%20Emeralds%2C%20an%20Iranian,that%20indefinite%20detention%20was%20unlawful">more than a decade</a> in detention after coming to Australia in search of asylum – were also among those released. </p>
<p>The government has already imposed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/18/draconian-conditions-come-into-effect-for-93-foreigners-released-after-being-illegally-detained-by-australia">strict conditions</a> on the freed individuals, including ankle bracelets and curfews.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-high-court-has-decided-indefinite-detention-is-unlawful-what-happens-now-217438">The High Court has decided indefinite detention is unlawful. What happens now?</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>What is being missed in the current debate?</h2>
<p>Prior to the High Court’s decision, refugees, people seeking asylum, stateless people and other non-citizens without a valid visa were regularly subject to indefinite mandatory detention. <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/immigration-detention-statistics-31-august-2023.pdf">As of August 2023</a>, Australia held 1,056 people in immigration detention; the average duration of detention was 708 days. </p>
<p>Unlike prisons, immigration detention centres are officially administrative and not for punishment. That is, people are not held in these facilities as part of a criminal sentence, but to facilitate health, security and identity checks, and to enable visa processing or removal from the country.</p>
<p>In the almost 30 years since Australia introduced indefinite mandatory detention, tens of thousands of people have been subject to this policy. Among those detained have been <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/asylum-seekers-and-refugees/national-inquiry-children-immigration-detention-2014">thousands of children</a>, whose detention continues to be permitted under Australian law. </p>
<p><a href="https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/visiting-immigration-detention">Conditions in detention</a> are often punitive, and have been subject to regular <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/limitless-detention-of-refugees-is-inhumane-and-must-end-says-un-torture-watchdog-20230414-p5d0et.html">international criticism</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/futile-and-cruel-plan-to-charge-fees-for-immigration-detention-has-no-redeeming-features-183035">'Futile and cruel': plan to charge fees for immigration detention has no redeeming features</a>
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<p>The current debate about immigration detention glosses over these realities. It obscures the profound humanitarian implications of the High Court’s ruling. </p>
<p>It also ignores the urgent need for further reform to ensure innocent people (including children) are not unduly punished. And it rationalises ongoing incarceration - beyond the terms of a criminal sentence - as a valid response to non-citizens who have already served their time. </p>
<p><em>Update</em>: <em>The legislation passed the House of Representatives late on Wednesday night.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219226/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Peterie receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She also undertakes research in partnership with the Australian Human Rights Commission. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Nethery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The release of more than 140 ex-detainees from immigration detention has prompted a panicked government response. So, what does the legislation say, and what happens now?Michelle Peterie, Research Fellow, University of SydneyAmy Nethery, Senior Lecturer in Politics and Policy Studies, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2188152023-11-29T11:30:58Z2023-11-29T11:30:58ZExtreme weather leaves energy networks vulnerable to ‘hostile actors’, Climate Statement warns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562355/original/file-20231129-24-xhu6c1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C8%2C5422%2C3628&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">TASMANIA FIRE SERVICE</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Extreme weather seasons are putting Australia’s energy systems more at risk of sabotage, the government’s annual Climate Change Statement warns. </p>
<p>These events place increased strain on the energy networks, and the resulting fragility could be exploited by “hostile actors”. </p>
<p>“The threshold for damage to Australia’s energy networks from sabotage may be significantly lower during high demand/low supply periods, such as extreme weather seasons,” the national security section of the statement says. </p>
<p>The statement, prepared by departmental officials, will be released by the Minister for Climate and Energy Chris Bowen on Thursday. The updated security warnings are informed by a declassified snapshot of work undertaken into climate change security risks by the Office of National Intelligence. </p>
<p>Labor asked the ONI to prepare a report on the security implications of climate change, following an election promise, but the government declined to release the report.</p>
<p>The Climate Statement forecasts Australia is heading towards meeting its 2030 target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>On present indications, emissions are expected to reduce by 42% below 2005 levels by 2030. The Labor target is a 43% reduction. The latest projection is better than last year’s, which was for a 40% reduction.</p>
<p>The Climate Statement highlights the biosecurity problems climate change brings. It will create “unprecedented potential for pests and diseases to spread to Australia, posing risks to the management of our border and supply chains.</p>
<p>"Invasive plants, animals and diseases could reduce forestry and agricultural productivity. Meanwhile, it is anticipated fisheries will become more contested as high ocean temperatures and acidification reduce ocean productivity and alter the range of fish stocks, which could have flow on impacts for Australia’s maritime security.” </p>
<p>Climate extremes are likely to put more stress on national coordination arrangements and domestic crisis management bodies, the statement says. This will stretch Australia’s emergency capabilities. </p>
<p>Rising sea levels are likely to see countries look to Australia and other countries for closer economic integration, through migration and expanded labour schemes, the report says, pointing to the recent agreement with Tuvalu, under which Australia will accept an annual intake of people. </p>
<p>The global transition to clean energy, while having many positives, could also bring problems, affecting Australia’s emergency response and warfighting capabilities. </p>
<p>“Maintaining a secure and affordable supply of legacy fuels during the transition is a priority for the government, as is the resilience of critical infrastructure in the face of extreme weather events or cyber attacks.”</p>
<p>Bowen will tell parliament on Thursday climate change already presents serious national security threats but they will become more severe, compounding as the planet becomes hotter.</p>
<p>“Australia will not sit on its hands, pause the transformation and expect to deploy speculative solutions in 2049 to address a climate emergency that is with us now.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218815/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Climate statement, prepared by departmental officials, will be released by the Minister for Climate and Energy Chris Bowen on Thursday with updated security warnings.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2181082023-11-20T04:45:09Z2023-11-20T04:45:09ZDavid McBride is facing jailtime for helping reveal alleged war crimes. Will it end whistleblowing in Australia?<p>The long-awaited trial of former Australian Defence Force lawyer David McBride was short-lived.</p>
<p>He stood accused of putting national security at risk by sharing confidential information with journalists, who then reported on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-11/killings-of-unarmed-afghans-by-australian-special-forces/8466642">alleged Australian war crimes</a> in Afghanistan. </p>
<p>An unexpected strategic move by the Department of Defence succeeded in withholding key documents from the ACT Supreme Court, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/17/australian-military-whistleblower-pleads-guilty-over-afghan-files-leak">all but dismantling</a> McBride’s claim for whistleblower protection.</p>
<p>Having now pleaded <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-17/military-whistleblower-david-mcbride-trial-leaked-adf-war-crimes/103119808">guilty</a> to unlawfully sharing classified material, what happens to McBride? And what does it say about the state of whistleblower protection laws in this country?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-and-why-australian-whistleblowing-laws-need-an-overhaul-new-report-195019">How and why Australian whistleblowing laws need an overhaul: new report</a>
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<h2>The end of a winding road</h2>
<p>David McBride was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/07/whistleblower-charged-with-exposing-alleged-military-misconduct-not-afraid-to-go-to-jail">charged in 2019</a> for disclosing secret military information to two ABC journalists. </p>
<p>His concerns had included Australian soldiers being sent to Afghanistan by a government he believed was more concerned with <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-leadership-rewarded-and-encouraged-dishonesty-20231106-p5ehuu">politics</a> than the troops. Interestingly, the court heard last week McBride was also concerned about the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-17/military-whistleblower-david-mcbride-trial-leaked-adf-war-crimes/103119808">“over-investigation”</a> of misconduct by special forces. </p>
<p>Instead, that information revealed allegations of war crimes by Australian soldiers in Afghanistan and a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-19/afghanistan-war-crimes-report-igadf-paul-brereton-released/12896234">culture of cover-up</a> in the Defence Force. </p>
<p>The ABC used the information to publish the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-11/killings-of-unarmed-afghans-by-australian-special-forces/8466642">Afghan Files reports</a>. Many allegations were later supported by the inspector-general of the Australian Defence Force in the <a href="https://www.defence.gov.au/about/reviews-inquiries/afghanistan-inquiry">Brereton report</a>. </p>
<p>That report, released in November 2020, recommended the chief of the Defence Force refer 36 matters relating to 25 incidents and involving 19 individuals to the Australian Federal Police for investigation. </p>
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<p>So far, the only charges to have been laid as a result of these investigations are against McBride himself. A brief of evidence was also prepared against ABC journalist Dan Oakes, though the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/oct/15/abc-journalist-dan-oakes-will-not-be-charged-over-afghan-files-reporting-afp-says">declined to prosecute</a> Oakes on public interest grounds.</p>
<p>It took four years for McBride’s case to get to court. Delays due to the pandemic and issues around maintaining the secrecy of classified information in court prolonged this process. </p>
<p>Eventually, the Department of Defence claimed public interest immunity over key information. This allows the government to withhold evidence (such as classified material) from the court on public interest grounds. </p>
<p>It means neither party can rely on the information. </p>
<p>This strategic decision meant McBride faced difficulties establishing key aspects of his whistleblower case. This included whether the information revealed relevant wrongdoing, his attempts to tell the department or police about his concerns, or whether the extent of the disclosure was necessary to establish wrongdoing. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the information McBride disclosed was security classified defence material that journalists were not authorised to receive. It is, therefore, not particularly surprising that he pleaded guilty to disclosure offences. </p>
<p>His only hope had been to avoid prosecution by grasping the shield of whistleblower protections.</p>
<h2>What next for McBride?</h2>
<p>McBride will now be sentenced for his offences, likely <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-17/military-whistleblower-david-mcbride-trial-leaked-adf-war-crimes/103119808">next year</a>.</p>
<p>There is a chance the court will show leniency in sentencing, taking into account the demonstrated public interest in McBride’s disclosures. </p>
<p>This happened in the prosecution of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-18/act-witness-k-sentencing-hearing/100226438">Witness K,</a> who conspired to reveal an alleged spying operation in East Timor during oil and gas treaty negotiations.</p>
<p>They were not covered by whistleblower laws because the legislation does not apply to intelligence information, and also pleaded guilty to secrecy offences. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tax-office-whistleblowing-saga-points-to-reforms-needed-in-three-vital-areas-187608">Tax office whistleblowing saga points to reforms needed in three vital areas</a>
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<p>Alternatively, the judge may not be swayed by the public interest in McBride’s disclosures and McBride could face a lengthy jail term.</p>
<p>The length of any jail term will depend on a number of factors, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the extent of information disclosed</p></li>
<li><p>the deliberate nature of the disclosures</p></li>
<li><p>a need to deter future disclosures of classified defence information. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What does this mean for whistleblowers?</h2>
<p>The punishment of McBride would have tragic impacts on whistleblowing in Australia. </p>
<p>Far from being a crime, research has identified whistleblowing as “the single <a href="https://parkesfoundation.org.au/activities/orations/2019-oration/">most important way</a> that wrongdoing or other problems come to light in organisations”.</p>
<p>Whistleblowing led not only to the Brereton report, but the Robodebt inquiry, the Banking royal commission, and <a href="https://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/about-us/our-history/fitzgerald-inquiry">Fitzgerald inquiry</a> into police misconduct, to name but a few high profile examples. </p>
<p>The importance of whistleblowing has been recognised in Public Interest Disclosure Acts across Australia, protecting whistleblowers from reprisals, victimisation and prosecution. </p>
<p>The importance of these protections is heightened in recent years by the government’s willingness to prosecute whistleblowers such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/27/ato-whistleblower-richard-boyle-face-trial-after-immunity-defence-fails">Richard Boyle</a> (who accused the Australian Taxation Office of using <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-09/whistleblower-exposes-ato-cash-grab-targeting-small-businesses/9633140">aggressive tactics</a> to retrieve money), David McBride, and Witness K for calling out government wrongdoing. </p>
<p>Whistleblower protection law is not perfect. Calls for <a href="https://parkesfoundation.org.au/activities/orations/2019-oration/">its improvement</a> point to a need for greater consistency across private and public sector protections. </p>
<p>They also call for better protection for <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/UNSWLawJl/2021/44.html">intelligence and defence</a> whistleblowers, and supports for <a href="https://law.uq.edu.au/files/64972/whistleblowing.pdf">press freedom</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-a-new-era-for-australias-whistleblowers-in-the-private-sector-119596">It's a new era for Australia's whistleblowers – in the private sector</a>
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<p>The protections are yet to be tested. McBride’s case would have been the first opportunity to see how courts interpret and apply whistleblower law. </p>
<p>But the government’s decision to withhold information from court stopped these laws from being tested.</p>
<p>It’s easy to see how the government’s reaction to McBride’s decision to blow the whistle will deter future whistleblowers, sending a bad message about transparency, accountability and the importance of calling out wrongdoing by those in positions of power.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218108/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Ananian-Welsh receives UQ Advancement Funding.</span></em></p>David McBride helped bring about a reckoning with the Australian Defence Force, but came at a legal cost. Will it stop others coming forward?Rebecca Ananian-Welsh, Associate Professor, TC Beirne School of Law, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1981352023-11-16T13:20:09Z2023-11-16T13:20:09ZFewer U.S. college students are studying a foreign language − and that spells trouble for national security<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559674/original/file-20231115-22-ptjw7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Between 2009 and 2021, nearly 30% fewer college students enrolled in a foreign language course.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/multi-racial-college-study-group-royalty-free-image/1006971096">FatCamera/E+ Collection/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1, the first artificial Earth satellite, on Oct. 4, 1957, it did more than spark fears about America’s ability to compete technologically. It also raised concerns that the <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1957/11/26/90858114.html?pageNumber=32">U.S. had a shortage of Russian speakers</a> capable of monitoring Soviet scientific and military activities. </p>
<p>In 1958, the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Sputnik_Spurs_Passage_of_National_Defense_Education_Act.htm">National Defense Education Act</a> authorized funding to strengthen U.S. education in language instruction, in addition to math and science.</p>
<p>More than six decades later, a <a href="https://www.mla.org/Resources/Guidelines-and-Data/Reports-and-Professional-Guidelines/Enrollments-in-Languages-Other-Than-English-in-United-States-Institutions-of-Higher-Education">new Modern Language Association report</a> is raising concerns about America’s foreign language capabilities anew. The report shows that the study of languages other than English at the university level experienced an <a href="http://www.mla.org/Enrollment-Report">unprecedented drop of 16.6%</a> between 2016 and 2021. </p>
<p>The second-largest drop – of 12.6% – took place between 1970 and 1972.</p>
<p>This decline continues a trend that began in 2009. Even though we live in an increasingly globalized world, the number of college students taking languages is rapidly falling.</p>
<p>As a professor of Spanish and Portuguese who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&amp;user=Vxyy3zYAAAAJ&amp;view_op=list_works&amp;sortby=pubdate">researches trends in language education</a>, I know that having fewer U.S. college students who learn a foreign language <a href="https://www.cfr.org/event/link-between-foreign-languages-and-us-national-security">creates greater risks for national security</a>.</p>
<h2>Foreign language census</h2>
<p>Every few years since 1958, the MLA has conducted a census of enrollments in college-level language courses in the U.S. <a href="https://apps.mla.org/flsurvey_search">Their data</a> shows that enrollments in languages other than English spiked after the National Defense Education Act became law.</p>
<p>Between 1958 and 1970, these enrollments nearly tripled, from about 430,000 to almost 1.2 million. The bulk of students studied French, German or Spanish. However, enrollments in Russian doubled in the first three years alone – jumping from roughly 16,000 in 1958 to over 32,700 in 1961. Enrollments in less commonly taught languages such as Chinese, Japanese and Arabic also rose steeply.</p>
<p>After 1970, the enrollments in language study began to fall. Arabic was an exception. Although very few U.S. students studied Arabic to begin with – just 364 in 1958, increasing to 1,324 in 1970 – the <a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74">1973 oil crisis</a> accelerated the trend, and enrollments passed 3,000 in 1977 before plateauing.</p>
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<h2>Role of geopolitics</h2>
<p>College enrollments in Russian and Arabic courses illustrate how language study can be directly affected by – and have implications for – political events.</p>
<p>Enrollments in Russian <a href="https://apps.mla.org/flsurvey_search">peaked at nearly 44,500</a> in 1990. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to an immediate loss of interest in learning Russian. Enrollments dropped below 25,000 by 1995 and have continued to fall since. The latest MLA survey shows that between 2016 and 2021 alone, enrollments fell from 20,353 to 17,598 – just over 1,500 more than in 1958. The low number of U.S. students learning Russian comes at a time when the current war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as Russia’s role as a <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/topics/cyber-threats-and-advisories/advanced-persistent-threats/russia">top cyberthreat</a>, makes knowledge of the language valuable to protecting national security.</p>
<p>Enrollments in Arabic, in turn, were low in 1998 – just 5,505 college students studied the language. Training and hiring speakers with professional-level Arabic proficiency <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/16/nyregion/on-education-after-sputnik-it-was-russian-after-9-11-should-it-be-arabic.html">was not a priority</a> for the federal government at that time. As a result, the FBI had few translators who were proficient in Arabic, which caused <a href="https://govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/report/index.htm">significant delays in translating surveillance information</a> in the run-up to the Sept. 11 attacks.</p>
<p>A year after 9/11, college-level enrollments in Arabic almost doubled to over 10,500, and they peaked in 2009 at just under 35,000. </p>
<h2>Expansion takes time</h2>
<p>Overcoming foreign language shortfalls is easier said than done. Gaps cannot be filled overnight, as languages <a href="https://exchanges.state.gov/cls">viewed as critical to national security</a> require hundreds to thousands of hours of study <a href="https://www.fsi-language-courses.org/blog/fsi-language-difficulty/">to reach professional proficiency</a>. And it also takes time for universities to expand their language offerings and staffing.</p>
<p>Therefore, shortfalls have continued. In 2016, nearly a quarter of the State Department’s overseas positions were held by people who <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-17-318">did not meet</a> the language proficiency requirements for their jobs. The numbers were even higher for positions requiring critical languages such as Arabic, Dari, Farsi and Urdu. These language gaps have <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-17-318">hindered officers’ ability</a> to protect embassies, manage emergency situations and more.</p>
<h2>Steep declines</h2>
<p>After peaking in 2009 at almost 1.7 million, college-level enrollments in languages other than English fell steeply. The new MLA report shows the decline has continued. By 2021, enrollments had fallen to under 1.2 million – a drop of nearly 30%.</p>
<p>Enrollments in almost all of the most commonly taught languages dropped significantly during this window. Arabic fell by almost 35%, Chinese/Mandarin by almost 25%, French by 37%, German by 44%, Japanese by 9% and Spanish by 32%. The only exceptions to this decline are enrollments in American Sign Language, which increased 17%, and Korean, which increased 128%. Korean in particular stands out, as its enrollments have increased steadily since 1974 and have been boosted recently by a global fascination with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/04/korea-culture-k-pop-music-film-tv-hallyu-v-and-a">Korean pop culture</a>.</p>
<p>Overall, enrollments for 2021 are on par with those of 1998. And they are only slightly higher than those of 1970 – even though more than <a href="http://www.mla.org/Enrollment-Report">twice as many students</a> now attend college.</p>
<p>In addition to the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/great-recession/">Great Recession</a>, other factors have <a href="https://www.chronicle.com/article/colleges-lose-a-stunning-651-foreign-language-programs-in-3-years">contributed to the downturn</a> in college language enrollments. As of 2017, only about <a href="https://www.americancouncils.org/language-research-fle-state-language-us">20% of K-12 students</a> study a foreign language, and only <a href="https://www.americancouncils.org/language-research-fle-state-language-us">11 states</a> have foreign language requirements for high school graduation. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, according to the Pew Research Center, just <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/">36% of Americans</a> believe that knowing a foreign language is very important for workers to be successful. In contrast, 85% believe that the ability to work with people from different backgrounds, training in writing and communication, and understanding how to use computers are each very important.</p>
<h2>National security initiatives</h2>
<p>In 2006, President George W. Bush launched the <a href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2006/58733.htm">National Security Language Initiative</a> to increase the number of speakers and teachers of critical languages.</p>
<p>Since then, government agencies have developed additional language programs. The National Security Agency’s <a href="https://www.startalk.info/">STARTALK</a>, for example, organizes summer programs to teach critical languages to students in kindergarten through college and provides resources and opportunities for teachers. The program served almost <a href="https://nflc.umd.edu/projects/startalk">70,000 students and 15,000 teachers</a> between 2007 and 2021.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nsliforyouth.org/">National Security Language Initiative for Youth</a>, in turn, is run by the State Department and offers summer and academic-year programs for high school students. Over <a href="https://live-nsli.pantheonsite.io/nsli-y/history/">8,000 students</a> have participated since 2006.</p>
<p>Despite the important role these programs play, the MLA report observes that college-level language enrollments continue to decline – even at a time of growing need for knowledge of languages other than English <a href="https://www.industryweek.com/talent/article/21119730/are-manufacturers-losing-out-on-business-due-to-lack-of-language-skills">in many industries</a>. As history has shown us, these declines will likely have negative effects on national security, diplomacy and U.S. strategic interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah Cohn has received grants from the American Philosophical Society (a Franklin Grant) and the Rockefeller Archive Center to conduct archival research related to the history of language study in the US. She is also a member of the Modern Language Association (MLA), a professional association for scholars of language and literature.</span></em></p>A new report from the Modern Language Association shows an unprecedented drop in the study of foreign languages among college students.Deborah Cohn, Provost Professor of Spanish and Portuguese, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144732023-10-19T00:20:46Z2023-10-19T00:20:46ZIn our first major intelligence review since COVID, here are 7 key priorities to be ready for the next pandemic<p>It may have gone unnoticed with the Voice to Parliament referendum and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-disability-royal-commission-recommendations-could-fix-some-of-the-worst-living-conditions-but-thats-just-the-start-213466">disability royal commission report</a>, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also recently announced a major independent review of Australia’s intelligence communities. It’s the first since the COVID pandemic. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/international-policy-and-national-security/national-security/2024-independent-intelligence-review">2024 Independent Intelligence Review</a> will consider how well our intelligence agencies are prepared for emerging security challenges. </p>
<p>Though the terms of reference do not explicitly mention the pandemic, the response of our intelligence communities to the health crisis should be a major focus. The review will run alongside the government’s much-anticipated <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/improving-future-preparedness-inquiry-response-covid-19-pandemic">COVID-19 inquiry</a>, announced last month.</p>
<p>Both reviews will be vital to how Australia rethinks its intelligence services to meet the changing needs of national security in a post-COVID world.</p>
<h2>The big changes since the last review</h2>
<p>Reviews into Australia’s intelligence community are rather routine. We’ve had them in <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2004-07/apo-nid2889.pdf">2004</a>, <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/2011-iric-report.pdf">2011</a> and <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/2017-Independent-Intelligence-Review.pdf">2017</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/resources/2024-independent-intelligence-review-terms-reference">terms of reference</a> for the new review focus largely on how well the intelligence community has implemented the 23 recommendations from 2017. </p>
<p>The chief recommendation was to create a new intelligence agency, the <a href="https://www.oni.gov.au">Office of National Intelligence</a> (ONI). The agency, similar to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, was founded in 2018. It reports directly to the prime minister. </p>
<p>ONI’s mandate is to improve governance and capabilities across <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-the-australian-intelligence-community-works-94422">Australia’s nine other agencies that do intelligence work</a>. (This includes the Australian Federal Police, the Australian Secret Intelligence Service and Home Affairs, just to name a few.) </p>
<p>The 2024 review will specifically examine the agency’s progress on this front, particularly during the pandemic. This was when the strength and co-ordination of our public health and national security systems were tested like never before. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Andrew Shearer, director-general of the Office of National Intelligence, appears before Senate Estimates in February 2023.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Intelligence challenges during the pandemic</h2>
<p>Nearly four years on from the start of the pandemic, there has been no independent review of the role the intelligence agencies played during the crisis. </p>
<p>This is concerning because there are many lessons to be learned from a once-in-a-lifetime health emergency. We have identified <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2023.2231196">three key challenges</a> the intelligence community faced:</p>
<ul>
<li>finding the cause of the pandemic </li>
<li>providing our leaders with enough advance warning on the severity of the health emergency</li>
<li>combating the large amounts of misinformation and disinformation that impeded the government’s ability to communicate with the public.</li>
</ul>
<p>But there are likely more. Such challenges underscore concerns about whether Australia’s intelligence community is generally fit for purpose, given how rapidly the security environment has <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/sharper-choices-how-australia-can-make-better-national-security-decisions#heading-6973">changed</a> since 2017. </p>
<p>We need to assess how our intelligence agencies can improve their collection and assessment of information related to emerging health threats. And we need to know if our agencies have the right kind of leadership and technological and health-related knowledge to be better prepared for the next health emergency.</p>
<p>At the height of the pandemic, the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/174531-covid-impact-on-intelligence-agencies-to-be-examined/">noted</a> the difficulties that six of the intelligence agencies faced in dealing with disinformation, misinformation, propaganda and the growing threats of extremism and espionage. </p>
<p>It also emphasised the national security implications that should compel the intelligence community to adapt quickly. </p>
<p>We have also <a href="https://theconversation.com/disputes-over-covids-origins-reveal-an-intelligence-community-in-disarray-here-are-4-fixes-we-need-before-the-next-pandemic-201166">written</a> about how the pandemic demonstrated a need for the “Five Eyes” partners (Australia, Canada, the US, UK and New Zealand) to improve their intelligence collection methods and analysis of health security threats.</p>
<p>The government’s COVID-19 inquiry will likely only address the public health shortcomings of the pandemic, not the national security implications of a future health emergency. This is why the intelligence review must make this a priority. </p>
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<h2>7 key points the review should not miss</h2>
<p>In particular, the intelligence review needs to do seven things:</p>
<p>1) Interview key ONI leaders and other heads of intelligence agencies to understand where their capabilities were tested and where there were gaps in their expertise and training during the pandemic. </p>
<p>2) Interview the small group of intelligence analysts responsible for bio-defence and health security issues to determine their capability gaps. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2023.2231196">Our research</a> shows this expertise in Australia and our Five Eyes partners is narrow and superficial.</p>
<p>3) Recommend establishing a health security intelligence group in ONI to better co-ordinate the collection and analysis of both classified and open-source health-related intelligence.</p>
<p>4) Recommend establishing a new committee in ONI to co-ordinate the sharing of information between public health officials and national security agencies. </p>
<p>5) Recommend ONI commission an independent inquiry into intelligence workforce planning for future health security threats. This could consider <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/mono/10.4324/9781315265933-7/human-resources-patrick-walsh?context=ubx&refId=1a4a0c4e-31e0-4f4f-b0c2-5d4725826544">recruitment, retention and attrition</a> of those with health security expertise.</p>
<p>6) Recommend ONI develop an expert group of scientists, government officials, private sector experts and academics with expertise on health security to advise the intelligence community. </p>
<p>7) Recommend the government develop a national health security strategy similar to the national cyber security strategy. This would clearly articulate roles for all agencies in managing future health security threats. The UK’s <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1173779/UK_Biological_Security_Strategy.pdf">Biological Security Strategy 2023</a> might be a good model to follow.</p>
<p>It is vital we don’t miss the opportunity to better prepare our intelligence communities for the next pandemic or bio-security emergency. We need to be ready for the future threats our country may face. It’s no longer a question of if another health emergency will occur, but when. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disputes-over-covids-origins-reveal-an-intelligence-community-in-disarray-here-are-4-fixes-we-need-before-the-next-pandemic-201166">Disputes over COVID's origins reveal an intelligence community in disarray. Here are 4 fixes we need before the next pandemic</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nearly four years on from the start of the pandemic, there has been no independent review of the role the intelligence agencies played during the crisis.Patrick F Walsh, Professor, Intelligence and Security Studies, Charles Sturt UniversityAusma Bernot, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2115042023-08-16T03:53:12Z2023-08-16T03:53:12ZThe AUKUS deal will be hotly debated at the ALP national conference, but its real vulnerabilities lie in America<p>This year’s ALP national conference, beginning August 17, promises to be somewhat feistier than its recent COVID-affected (and boring) predecessors. </p>
<p>Yet it’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-labors-national-conference-looms-but-the-partys-rank-and-file-has-lost-its-bite-206413">unlikely</a> to deliver a major embarrassment to the Albanese government. Issues like the <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Funited-workers-union-demands-stagethree-taxcut-review%2Fnews-story%2Fc478947872c098101fd39aee48881be8&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupa-control-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append">Stage 3 tax cuts</a> may irritate traditional Labor members, but there’s a general consensus that conference stoushes shouldn’t derail the government’s re-election agenda.</p>
<p>Unusually for a liberal democracy, where domestic affairs tend to dominate party politics, the loudest disagreements at the conference are likely to happen over foreign policy. <a href="https://devpolicy.org/where-now-for-australian-aid-20220607/">Aid</a>, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Flabor-urged-on-free-abortions-and-to-stop-boats-close-nauru%2Fnews-story%2F9f49e0df2168efbfdb182ab73b4314ae&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupa-control-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append">refugees</a> and Australia’s stance on the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/08/australia-to-officially-resume-use-of-term-occupied-palestinian-territories-reversing-coalition-stance">Israel-Palestine</a> dispute have long been bugbears of the Labor Left. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-decision-to-again-use-the-term-occupied-palestinian-territories-brings-it-into-line-with-international-law-211260">Australia's decision to again use the term 'occupied Palestinian territories' brings it into line with international law</a>
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<p>Yet the issue causing the most consternation – the tripartite technology-sharing AUKUS agreement that will eventually see Australia operating nuclear-powered submarines – has been delivered by a prime minister from Labor’s left faction, after being announced by the previous Morrison coalition government.</p>
<p>And while old left warriors (including <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8245773/former-labor-cabinet-minister-condemns-368b-aukus-deal/">Peter Garrett</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/22/labor-was-presented-with-a-fait-accompli-on-aukus-nuclear-submarines-but-scepticism-in-the-party-is-rightly-rising-kim-carr">Kim Carr</a>) have condemned AUKUS, the most vocal criticism has come from members of Labor’s right. This includes prominent figures such as former Prime Minister <a href="http://www.paulkeating.net.au/shop/item/aukus-statement-by-pj-keating-the-national-press-club-wednesday-15-march-2023">Paul Keating</a> and former Foreign Minister <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-old-guard-follow-keating-into-the-trenches-over-368b-submarine-deal-20230321-p5cu1h.html">Bob Carr</a>.</p>
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<h2>So what’s at stake in the AUKUS debate?</h2>
<p>There’s certainly widespread scepticism within the party’s ranks about the deal. And that scepticism cuts across the increasingly blurry cleavages between Labor’s factions. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/29/theres-labor-dissent-over-aukus-but-its-unlikely-to-spill-into-a-rebellion-at-the-alp-national-conference">Labor members</a> in the South Australian electorates of Mayo and Boothby, as well as in the influential seat of Sydney, have all condemned the agreement. Labor’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/aukus-dissent-won-t-prevail-at-alp-conference-minister-20230724-p5dqob">ACT conference</a> tried to pass a motion rejecting AUKUS, while Victorian trade unions <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/albanese-faces-aukus-backlash-from-victorian-labor-party-faithful-20230614-p5dgix.html">also sought</a> to marshal support for an anti-AUKUS agenda.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-labor-president-wayne-swan-on-the-partys-coming-national-conference-211342">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Labor president Wayne Swan on the party's coming national conference</a>
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<p>Apart from a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-doubles-down-on-aukus-as-union-boss-criticises-silence-on-internal-debate-20230814-p5dwdk.html">concerted effort</a> by Labor’s leadership to ensure AUKUS doesn’t derail the conference, a key reason it’s unlikely to gain much real traction is because opposition to AUKUS encompasses such an incoherent mishmash of grumbles. </p>
<p>They include those opposed to nuclear weapons as well as nuclear energy, the reflexively anti-American lobby, and those mistrustful of shadowy military-industrial complexes. </p>
<p>These concerns – which are hardly new in Australian politics – are jammed together with more targeted and contemporary objections. </p>
<p>For instance, plenty of Australians (and not just in the ALP) remain vexed at the government’s fairly <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-aukus-debate-australia-needs-to-have/">tokenistic explanation</a> about why the agreement was necessary. So far it has only offered some inconsistent rhetoric about boosting self-reliance and a future-proof sovereign Australian deterrent capability. </p>
<p>Others worry about the extent to which the agreement <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/aukus-one-year">binds Australia </a>so firmly to America’s warfighting posture, itself increasingly dictated by Sino-US strategic competition. </p>
<p>With future Australian-flagged AUKUS forces essentially interchangeable with American ones, the concern is that Australia has voluntarily subordinated strategic policy flexibility to alliance loyalty at a time of significant regional uncertainty and flux. </p>
<p>There are also objections about the eye-watering $368 billion <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/all-at-sea-does-368-billion-for-nuclear-subs-add-up-20230317-p5csxm">price tag</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/time-to-grow-up-australias-national-security-dilemma-demands-a-mature-debate-202040">Time to grow up: Australia's national security dilemma demands a mature debate</a>
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<p>Still other concerns have been raised about the capacity for Australia to <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fdefence%2Fcrew-recruiting-key-challenge-for-aukus-nuclear-submarines-joel-fitzgibbon%2Fnews-story%2F333ae3f0e433440e00f882cc195c07be&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupa-control-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append">crew</a> its nuclear subs. Then there is the lengthy <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/nuclear-powered-submarines-will-change-the-identity-of-the-ran/">timeframe</a> for delivery, and the prospect of operating three different classes of submarine at once (the ageing Collins class, US Virginia class nuclear powered submarines, and the new AUKUS class boats). </p>
<p>So AUKUS highlights some important questions about Australia’s national security choices, as well as the processes that will promulgate them. It has also – to an extent – reopened old wounds in the ALP, revealing persistent and deeply-held views.</p>
<p>While cautiously supportive of AUKUS, I wholeheartedly agree that debating it is legitimate and entirely appropriate. But if the deal falls over, it will have less to do with Australian debates, and much more to do with American ones.</p>
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<h2>US domestic politics meets bureaucratic logjams</h2>
<p>There have already been signs that US lawmakers are prepared to include AUKUS in attempts to pressure the Biden administration. In January 2023, a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-06/biden-warned-aukus-deal-could-imperil-us-submarines/101832468">secret bipartisan letter</a> written in December 2022 by Jack Reed (the Democrat chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee), and the Republican Senator James Inhofe warned against selling Virginia class submarines to Australia without significant additional investment in US shipbuilding capacity. </p>
<p>More recently, in July 2023, US Senator Jim Wicker led a move to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/21/top-republican-blocks-bidens-aukus-pact-00107480">block</a> an agreement authorising Congress to fast-track the sale of three Virginia submarines. He argued the US needed to spend more than the debt-ceiling limit on boosting defence production. </p>
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<p>In particular, Wicker claimed the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/21/australias-3bn-aukus-bill-to-boost-us-and-uk-industry-may-go-even-higher">A$3 billion</a> Australia had already tipped in was insufficient for America’s submarine industrial base to meet US Navy build schedules. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the state of <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/features/are-uk-shipyards-prepared-to-invest-for-the-future/">UK shipbuilding</a> capacity – which will be central to building the new AUKUS-class platform – should also raise concerns. </p>
<p>Given the next presidential election season is fast approaching, we must expect that US national security issues will continue to be used for political purposes. And with the identity of the next president by no means clear, Australian influence in the US will struggle to overcome a concerted “America First” agenda, led either from a future White House or the Congress.</p>
<p>Second, it’s often forgotten that AUKUS goes far beyond nuclear-powered submarines. The so-called <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/aukus-three-partners-two-pillars-one-problem/">Pillar Two</a> of AUKUS will be crucial to Australia’s capacity to leverage partnerships on high-end critical technologies. This has the additional advantage that many of them will be dual-use (in other words, have both civilian as well as military applications). </p>
<p>There is particular scope for the deal to supercharge advancements crucial to future defence needs –- in command and control (C2), electronic warfare (EW) and integration of AI systems, for instance.</p>
<p>But again, Australia’s ability to benefit from these advancements will have to overcome a slew of largely US-based obstacles. And these are in addition to Canberra’s historical timidity about backing innovations from concept to reality.</p>
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<p>A key sticking point will be America’s hypersensitivities over information-sharing, which often results in <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2020/01/29/unbelievably-ridiculous-four-star-general-seeks-to-clean-up-pentagons-classification-process/">over-classification</a> via the blanket <a href="https://www.navsup.navy.mil/Viper-Home/NOFORN/">NOFORN</a> (Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals) designation. Even more problematic are the US <a href="https://www.tradecompliance.pitt.edu/guidance-forms/guidance-documents/export-defense-articles-and-services-itar">International Traffic in Arms Regulations</a> (ITAR) and its <a href="https://www.dsca.mil/foreign-military-sales-fms">Foreign Military Sales</a> (FMS) process. </p>
<p>These are costly to overcome, require ongoing investments in goodwill, and are vulnerable to the vicissitudes of American politics. As a <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/aukus-pillar-two-advancing-capabilities-united-states-united-kingdom-and-australia">CSIS report</a> recently noted, the United Kingdom already spends over 1% of its total defence budget on ITAR compliance alone. </p>
<p>While there is broad-based acceptance that ITAR and FMS are arcane, they remain significant regulatory and political hurdles to the type of innovation agenda envisaged under AUKUS Pillar Two. </p>
<p>And while there have been proposals to circumvent export controls by legislating a “<a href="https://www.state.gov/house-committee-on-foreign-affairs-hearing-modernizing-u-s-arms-exports-and-a-stronger-aukus-a-s-jessica-lewis/">pre-approval</a>” process for AUKUS projects, they have not yet progressed further than ideas. This risks being undone by a determined future US administration.</p>
<p>This all means it’s important to recognise that the ALP’s AUKUS debate is not happening in a vacuum. Indeed, as is often the case with having great and powerful friends, trying to shape their preferences can prove the most difficult task. For Australia, AUKUS is likely to be no exception.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211504/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Sussex has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Carnegie Foundation, the Lowy Institute, and various Australian government agencies.</span></em></p>The loudest disagreements at this year’s ALP national conference are likely to be on foreign policy - the AUKUS deal prime among them.Matthew Sussex, Associate Proessor (Adj), Griffith Asia Institute; and Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, ANU, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111832023-08-11T03:30:58Z2023-08-11T03:30:58ZOut of the shadows: why making NZ’s security threat assessment public for the first time is the right move<p>Today’s release of the <a href="https://www.nzsis.govt.nz/assets/NZSIS-Documents/New-Zealands-Security-Threat-Environment-2023.pdf">threat assessment</a> by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (SIS) is the final piece in a defence and security puzzle that marks a genuine shift towards more open and public discussion of these crucial policy areas.</p>
<p>Together with July’s <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/media-and-resources/release-of-mfats-2023-strategic-foreign-policy-assessment-navigating-a-shifting-world-te-whakatere-i-tetahi-ao-hurihuri/">strategic foreign policy assessment</a> from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the <a href="https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/publications/aotearoas-national-security-strategy-secure-together-tatou-korowai-manaaki">national security strategy</a> released last week, it rounds out the picture of New Zealand’s place in a fast-evolving geopolitical landscape.</p>
<p>From increased strategic competition between countries, to declining social trust within them, as well as rapid technological change, the overall message is clear: business as usual is no longer an option.</p>
<p>By releasing the strategy documents in this way, the government and its various agencies clearly hope to win public consent and support – ultimately, the greatest asset any country possesses to defend itself.</p>
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<h2>Low threat of violent extremism</h2>
<p>If there is good news in the SIS assessment, it is that the threat of violent extremism is still considered “low”. That means no change since the threat level was reassessed last year, with a terror attack considered “possible” rather than “probable”.</p>
<p>It’s a welcome development since the threat level was lifted to “high” in the
immediate aftermath of the Christchurch terror attack in 2019. This was lowered
to “medium” about a month later – where it sat in September 2021, when another extremist attacked people with a knife in an Auckland mall, seriously
injuring five.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-first-national-security-strategy-signals-a-turning-point-and-the-end-of-old-certainties-210885">NZ’s first national security strategy signals a 'turning point' and the end of old certainties</a>
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<p>The threat level stayed there during the escalating social tension resulting from the government’s COVID response. This saw New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/479858/graham-philip-receives-three-year-jail-term-for-acts-of-sabotage">first conviction for sabotage</a> and increasing threats to politicians, with the SIS and police intervening in at least one case to mitigate the risk.</p>
<p>After protesters were cleared from the grounds of parliament in early 2022, it was
still feared an act of extremism by a small minority was likely.</p>
<p>These risks now seem to be receding. And while the threat assessment notes that the online world can provide havens for extremism, the vast majority of those expressing vitriolic rhetoric are deemed unlikely to carry through with violence in the real world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-number-8-wire-days-for-nzs-defence-force-are-over-new-priorities-will-demand-bigger-budgets-211182">The 'number 8 wire' days for NZ's defence force are over – new priorities will demand bigger budgets</a>
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<h2>Changing patterns of extremism</h2>
<p>Assessments like this are not a crystal ball; threats can emerge quickly and be near-invisible before they do. But right now, at least publicly, the SIS is not aware of any specific or credible attack planning.</p>
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<p>Many extremists still fit well-defined categories. There are the politically motivated, potentially violent, anti-authority conspiracy theorists, of which there is a “small number”. </p>
<p>And there are those motivated by identity (with white supremacist extremism the dominant strand) or faith (such as support for Islamic State, a decreasing and “very small number”).</p>
<p>However, the SIS describes a noticeable increase in individuals who don’t fit within those traditional boundaries, but who hold mixed, unstable or unclear ideologies they may tailor to fit some other violent or extremist impulse.</p>
<h2>Espionage and cyber-security risks</h2>
<p>There also seems to be a revival of the espionage and spying cultures last seen during the Cold War. There is already the first <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/proceedings-relating-to-new-zealands-first-military-case-of-espionage-to-recommence-in-private/MT76QKKICZAUPJCC5T77LIIO6A/">military case of espionage</a> before the courts, and the SIS is aware of individuals on the margins of government being cultivated and offered financial and other incentives to provide sensitive information.</p>
<p>The SIS says espionage operations by foreign intelligence agencies against New Zealand, both at home and abroad, are persistent, opportunistic and increasingly wide ranging.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-edge-new-aircraft-have-increased-nzs-surveillance-capacity-but-are-they-enough-in-a-changing-world-209495">Cutting-edge new aircraft have increased NZ’s surveillance capacity – but are they enough in a changing world?</a>
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<p>While the government remains the main target, corporations, research institutions and state contractors are now all potential sources of sensitive information. Because non-governmental agencies are often not prepared for such threats, they pose a significant security risk.</p>
<p>Cybersecurity remains a particular concern, although the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) recorded 350 incidents in 2021-22, which was a decline from 404 incidents recorded in the previous 12-month period.</p>
<p>On the other hand, a growing proportion of cyber incidents affecting major New Zealand institutions can be linked to state-sponsored actors. Of the 350 reported major incidents, 118 were connected to foreign states (34% of the total, up from 28% the previous year).</p>
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<h2>Russia, Iran and China</h2>
<p>Although the SIS recorded that only a “small number” of foreign states engaged in deceptive, corruptive or coercive attempts to exert political or social influence, the potential for harm is “significant”.</p>
<p>Some of the most insidious examples concern harassment of ethnic communities within New Zealand who speak out against the actions of a foreign government.</p>
<p>The SIS identifies Russia, Iran and China as the three offenders. Iran was recorded as reporting on Iranian communities and dissident groups in New Zealand. In addition, the assessment says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Most notable is the continued targeting of New Zealand’s diverse ethnic Chinese communities. We see these activities carried out by groups and individuals linked to the intelligence arm of the People’s Republic of China.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Overall, the threat assessment makes for welcome – if at times unsettling – reading. Having such conversations in the open, rather than in whispers behind closed doors, demystifies aspects of national security.</p>
<p>Most importantly, it gives greater credibility to those state agencies that must increase their transparency in order to build public trust and support for their unique roles within a working democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Security Intelligence Service needs public support and trust to do its work well. Adding a degree of transparency to it’s annual threat assessment should help.Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2109552023-08-04T12:30:01Z2023-08-04T12:30:01ZAre we alone in the universe? 4 essential reads on potential contact with aliens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541095/original/file-20230803-27-wa23kr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C0%2C8694%2C5617&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">UFOs usually have non-extraterrestrial origins, but many have urged the government to be more transparent about UFO data. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/long-exposure-of-andromeda-galaxy-royalty-free-image/1455373371?phrase=space&adppopup=true">Westend61/Westend61 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The House subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?529499-1/hearing-unidentified-aerial-phenomena">met in July 2023 to discuss</a> affairs so foreign that they may not even be of this world. During the meeting, several military officers testified that unidentified anomalous phenomena – the government’s name for UFOs – <a href="https://theconversation.com/whistleblower-calls-for-government-transparency-as-congress-digs-for-the-truth-about-ufos-210435">pose a threat</a> to national security. </p>
<p>Their testimony may have <a href="https://theconversation.com/whistleblower-calls-for-government-transparency-as-congress-digs-for-the-truth-about-ufos-210435">raised eyebrows in the chamber</a>, but there’s still no public physical evidence of extraterrestrial life. In fact, most UFO sightings <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-tend-to-believe-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-208403">have earthly explanations</a>, from tricks of the light to weather balloons. </p>
<p>Whether or not these testimonials hold any grains of truth, some scholars argue that simply by listening for signs of extraterrestrials, we’re already <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-contact-with-aliens-could-end-in-colonization-and-genocide-if-we-dont-learn-from-history-207793">engaging in the first phase of contact</a> with alien life. </p>
<p>These four articles from our archives dive into what went down during the subcommittee hearing, why perceived UFO sightings usually have human explanations, and how humanity can learn from history when it comes to engaging with extraterrestrials. </p>
<h2>1. Whistleblower allegations</h2>
<p>The most interesting testimony of the July 26 subcommittee hearing came from ex-Air Force Intelligence Officer David Grusch, who <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Dave_G_HOC_Speech_FINAL_For_Trans.pdf">claimed that</a> the U.S. has nonhuman biological material recovered from a UFO crash site. The Pentagon has <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-oversight-plans-ufo-hearing-after-unconfirmed-claims/story?id=99899883">denied this claim</a>, and it has <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-oversight-plans-ufo-hearing-after-unconfirmed-claims/story?id=99899883">denied the existence of any program</a> designed to retrieve and reverse-engineer crashed UFOs. </p>
<p>All witnesses at the hearing advocated for more government transparency around reports of UFOs. Intelligence agencies and the Pentagon currently steward this data, most of which <a href="https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/pentagon-blocks-lawmakers-ufo-data-uap-hearing/">is not public</a>. While having access to more data may help understand what’s going on, as the University of Arizona’s <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OrRLRQ4AAAAJ&hl=en">Chris Impey</a> put it, “the gold standard is physical evidence.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whistleblower-calls-for-government-transparency-as-congress-digs-for-the-truth-about-ufos-210435">Whistleblower calls for government transparency as Congress digs for the truth about UFOs</a>
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<h2>2. Sociological explanations</h2>
<p>Again, while no physical evidence has been made public, anyone surfing the internet can see plenty of alleged UFO videos, photos and stories. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZEQu09wAAAAJ&hl=en">Barry Markovsky</a>, from the University of South Carolina, is a sociologist of shared beliefs and misconceptions who explained why UFOs seem to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-tend-to-believe-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-208403">captivate the public</a> every few years.</p>
<p>People want explanations <a href="https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/ambiguity-effect">for ambiguous situations</a>, and they’re easily influenced by others. Social media enables a concept called <a href="https://doi.org/10.31269/triplec.v3i2.21">bottom-up social diffusion</a>. Say one user posts a blurry video claiming it depicts a UFO. It’s easy for that user’s network to see and repost the video and so on, until it goes viral. Then, when organized institutions like news outlets or government sources publish UFO-related information, that’s called <a href="https://doi.org/10.31269/triplec.v3i2.21">top-down social diffusion</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two circle-and-line graphics, the left showing several circles connected to one another with lines, while the right shows one circle at the top connecting several other circles" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536695/original/file-20230710-15-14kf6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The left image shows bottom-up diffusion, in which information spreads from person to person. The right shows top-down diffusion, in which information spreads from one authority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Barry Markovsky</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Diffusion processes can combine into self-reinforcing loops. Mass media spreads UFO content and piques worldwide interest in UFOs. More people aim their cameras at the skies, creating more opportunities to capture and share odd-looking content,” Markovsky wrote. “Poorly documented UFO pics and videos spread on social media, leading media outlets to grab and republish the most intriguing. Whistleblowers emerge periodically, fanning the flames with claims of secret evidence.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-tend-to-believe-ufos-are-extraterrestrial-208403">Why people tend to believe UFOs are extraterrestrial</a>
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<h2>3. Signature detection</h2>
<p>While UFOs might have traction on social media, it’s likely that the first trace of extraterrestrial life won’t come from a crashed alien spaceship. Instead, scientists could potentially <a href="https://theconversation.com/signatures-of-alien-technology-could-be-how-humanity-first-finds-extraterrestrial-life-191054">pick up signals</a> like radio waves or pollution from some distant galaxy that might indicate extraterrestrial technology. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.seti.org/">Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence</a> is a group of scientists all working on the search for extraterrestrial life. Part of what they do is listen for these “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1473550419000284">technosignatures</a>”.</p>
<p>As two astronomers who work on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Penn State’s <a href="https://sites.psu.edu/macyhuston/">Macy Huston</a> and <a href="https://sites.psu.edu/astrowright/">Jason Wright</a> wrote about how humans often <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.199.4327.377">unintentionally broadcast signals</a> like radio waves into space. In theory, extraterrestrial civilizations could be doing the same thing – and if scientists can pick up on these signals, they might have their first hints at alien life. </p>
<p>“However, this approach assumes that extraterrestrial civilizations <a href="https://www.universetoday.com/149513/beyond-fermis-paradox-xvii-what-is-the-seti-paradox-hypothesis/">want to communicate</a> with other technologically advanced life,” Huston and Wright explained. “Humans very rarely send targeted signals into space, and some scholars argue that intelligent species may <a href="https://theconversation.com/blasting-out-earths-location-with-the-hope-of-reaching-aliens-is-a-controversial-idea-two-teams-of-scientists-are-doing-it-anyway-182036">purposefully avoid broadcasting</a> out their locations. This search for signals that no one may be sending is called <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.physics/0611283">the SETI Paradox</a>.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/signatures-of-alien-technology-could-be-how-humanity-first-finds-extraterrestrial-life-191054">Signatures of alien technology could be how humanity first finds extraterrestrial life</a>
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<h2>4. Ethical considerations</h2>
<p>While the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence hasn’t yet detected any extraterrestrial technosignatures, a <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2sq6f3b0">working group of interdisciplinary scholars</a> in Indigenous studies argued that the act of listening for these signals may already count as engaging in first contact with extraterrestrial life.</p>
<p>The Indigenous studies working group argued that first contact may not be just one event – rather, you can think of it as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2514848619862191">long phase</a> that begins with listening and planning. Listening can be an act of surveillance, and with that comes ethical considerations. </p>
<p>But research groups like the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence don’t often include perspectives from the humanities, even though there are many histories of first contact between groups of people here on Earth to draw from. </p>
<p>James Cook’s 1768 voyage to Oceania, for example, was planned as scientific exploration. But its <a href="https://doi.org/10.17953/aicrj.45.1.lempert">legacy of genocide</a> still affects the Indigenous people of Australia and New Zealand today. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5gZwLGrJQrM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This BBC video describes the modern ramifications of Captain James Cook’s colonial legacy in New Zealand.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“The initial domino of a public ET message, or recovered bodies or ships, could initiate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0236">cascading events</a>, including military actions, corporate resource mining and perhaps even geopolitical reorganizing,” wrote <a href="https://www.wacd.ucla.edu/people/faculty/david-shorter">David Shorter</a>, <a href="https://www.bowdoin.edu/profiles/faculty/wlempert/index.html">William Lempert</a> and <a href="https://kimtallbear.com/">Kim Tallbear</a>. “No one can know for sure <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-your-religion-ready-to-meet-et-32541">how engagement with extraterrestrials would go</a>, though it’s better to consider cautionary tales from Earth’s own history sooner rather than later.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/first-contact-with-aliens-could-end-in-colonization-and-genocide-if-we-dont-learn-from-history-207793">First contact with aliens could end in colonization and genocide if we don't learn from history</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210955/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Whistleblower allegations that the government possesses UFOs may not be backed up by public physical evidence, but some argue that listening for extraterrestrial life is the first phase of contact.Mary Magnuson, Assistant Science EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2108852023-08-04T04:05:26Z2023-08-04T04:05:26ZNZ’s first national security strategy signals a ‘turning point’ and the end of old certainties<p>When Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz <a href="https://dgap.org/en/research/expertise/zeitenwende">proclaimed</a> a “Zeitenwende”, or historical turning point. It resulted in Germany’s first ever official <a href="https://www.bmvg.de/en/national-security-policy">national security strategy</a>.</p>
<p>The equivalent wake-up call in New Zealand was the 2019 Christchurch terror attack. This hammered home, in the most horrific way, that geographic distance and small size no longer protected the country in ways they might have once.</p>
<p>While some countries, such as the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf">United States</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/integrated-review-refresh-2023-responding-to-a-more-contested-and-volatile-world/integrated-review-refresh-2023-responding-to-a-more-contested-and-volatile-world">Britain</a>, have had serious national security strategies in place for a long time, for others it takes a shock. In 2018, before the Christchurch atrocity, New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.nzsis.govt.nz/assets/NZSIS-Documents/NZSIS-Annual-Reports/NZSIS-Annual-Report-2018.pdf">national threat level</a> was set at “low”.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.defence.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/8958486b29/Strategic-Defence-Policy-Statement-2018.pdf">Defence Policy Statement </a> from the same year, although far from naïve, reflected a simpler world. This changed with the more sober <a href="https://www.defence.govt.nz/assets/publication/file/Defence-Assessment-2021.pdf">2021 Defence Assessment</a>, followed by the <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/defence-policy-review-ensure-future-investment-fit-post-covid-world">defence policy review</a> announced last year into whether current policy, strategy and capability were fit for purpose.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/roadmap-for-future-of-defence-and-national-security-released">suite of documents</a> released today – including a first ever national security strategy – provides the answer. In short, New Zealand now faces a very different and rapidly changing world. Business as usual is no longer considered an option.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1687193384950390784"}"></div></p>
<h2>A new security strategy</h2>
<p>In July, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs released its strategic foreign policy assessment, <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/media-and-resources/release-of-mfats-2023-strategic-foreign-policy-assessment-navigating-a-shifting-world-te-whakatere-i-tetahi-ao-hurihuri/">Navigating a Shifting World-Te whakatere i tētahi ao hurihuri</a>. It looks ahead to 2025 and is “intended as a contribution to the national conversation on foreign policy”.</p>
<p>The national security strategy, <a href="https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/publications/aotearoas-national-security-strategy-secure-together-tatou-korowai-manaaki">Secure Together-Tō Tātou Korowai Manaaki</a>, along with a new defence policy and strategy statement, rounds out this revised New Zealand worldview. A soon-to-be-released threat assessment from the security intelligence agencies will complete the picture.</p>
<p>Announcing the new strategy, Defence Minister <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/speech-roadmap-for-future-of-defence-and-national-security-released">Andrew Little said</a>: “In 2023 we do not live in a benign strategic environment.” He went on to say:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Aotearoa New Zealand is facing more geostrategic challenges than we have had in decades – climate change, terrorism, cyberattacks, transnational crime, mis- and disinformation, and competition in our region which, up until recently, we thought was protected by its remoteness.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While the new assessments and strategic statements come from different state agencies, they nonetheless speak clearly and coherently about the risks to New Zealand’s security. The national wake-up call, then, rests on four broad pillars of understanding.</p>
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<h2>1. Geopolitical uniqueness</h2>
<p>The first consistent theme concerns New Zealand’s uniqueness. It is a liberal, multicultural democracy based on a bicultural relationship and te Tiriti o Waitangi/Treaty of Waitangi. The nation’s strong sovereign identity is anchored in the Pacific, and it speaks with a strong and independent voice.</p>
<p>The New Zealand people and their socially cohesive society are the country’s most valuable assets. The obligation of guardianship over these, for both present and future generations, means being better prepared for potential external and internal threats.</p>
<p>Ensuring national resilience and security underpins the government’s unprecedented (at least for this century) planning for and prioritising of that preparedness.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/approach-with-caution-why-nz-should-be-wary-of-buying-into-the-aukus-security-pact-203915">Approach with caution: why NZ should be wary of buying into the AUKUS security pact</a>
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<h2>2. Times are changing</h2>
<p>The new strategy identifies 12 national security issues, ranging from terrorism and climate change to attempts to subvert New Zealand democracy. While no one challenge is expressly prioritised, there is a clear emphasis on geostrategic competition and the threats to a rules-based international system.</p>
<p>Many of the assumptions about global and regional affairs that have underpinned New Zealand’s foreign policy for a generation or more are coming under real and sustained pressure. </p>
<p>The rules-based order that has allowed the country to thrive peacefully is under stress. The risk of open conflict is heightened, with the wider Indo-Pacific region at the centre of geopolitical contests.</p>
<p>There are also unpredictable but significant risks – especially economic ones – from those tensions, even without a descent into military conflict. And there is the potential for more than one negative event to occur at the same time.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-most-significant-defence-review-in-40-years-positions-australia-for-complex-threats-in-a-changing-region-200070">The most significant defence review in 40 years positions Australia for complex threats in a changing region</a>
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<h2>3. Partnerships matter</h2>
<p>New Zealand’s security has to be collective, and there is no lurching towards isolationism. More collaborations are likely to address shared security challenges. </p>
<p>The most important relationship is with Australia, which is also rapidly <a href="https://www.defence.gov.au/about/reviews-inquiries/defence-strategic-review">upgrading</a> its defence capabilities. As New Zealand’s closest partner and only formal ally, Australia is “indispensable to New Zealand’s national security”.</p>
<p>The US relationship is also very important, of course. Throughout the new documents, the US is variously described as a “crucial” defence partner in general, and “critical for New Zealand’s security” in the Indo-Pacific and Pacific regions.</p>
<p>Other less immediately obvious security relationships are also noted, including with Singapore, Japan and NATO. The Five Eyes intelligence network (which also includes Britain and Canada) is cast as “an invaluable support to our understanding and ability to respond to emerging and complex security issues”.</p>
<p>The newer multinational security partnerships – namely AUKUS and the “Quad” (US, India, Japan and Australia) – are mentioned. But none of the new documents explicitly state whether New Zealand will or will not join them in the future – other than to say they “may” provide the opportunity for New Zealand to further pursue its interests.</p>
<p>But the Defence Force needs to improve its combat readiness and effectiveness, as well as other military capabilities, and increase its presence in the Pacific. It’s clear greater investment is needed in both the short and medium term, but no dollar figures are attached.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/anzus-at-70-together-for-decades-us-australia-new-zealand-now-face-different-challenges-from-china-163546">ANZUS at 70: Together for decades, US, Australia, New Zealand now face different challenges from China</a>
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<h2>4. Realism over China</h2>
<p>The damage Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused to the international legal framework is clear. But the new strategies and assessments repeatedly highlight the challenge of China.</p>
<p>While peaceful cooperation in areas of shared interest is deemed desirable, China is also recognised as being major driver of geopolitical change, especially in its willingness to be more assertive and willing to challenge existing international rules and norms.</p>
<p>Finally, aspects of China’s operations in the Pacific threaten to fundamentally alter the regional strategic balance. New Zealand must plan and be prepared for this.</p>
<p>Overall, the new assessments and strategy represent a turning point: a recognition security threats are rising and will require new approaches. While the detail is not fleshed out, and no doubt there will be partisan debate as the October election nears, the need for real change has rarely been made so clear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210885/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand faces “more geostrategic challenges than we have had in decades”, according to the defence minister. A broad defence and security reset aims to prepare the country for what may be ahead.Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102622023-08-01T12:26:50Z2023-08-01T12:26:50ZThe nuclear arms race’s legacy at home: Toxic contamination, staggering cleanup costs and a culture of government secrecy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540032/original/file-20230729-63311-ud8ybo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C7%2C4716%2C3151&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Packaging excavated radioactive materials at the Hanford site in Washington state.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/cpEWtw">USDOE</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Christopher Nolan’s film “<a href="https://www.oppenheimermovie.com/">Oppenheimer</a>” has focused new attention on the legacies of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Manhattan-Project">Manhattan Project</a> – the World War II program to develop nuclear weapons. As the anniversaries of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/atomic-bombings-of-Hiroshima-and-Nagasaki">bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki</a> on Aug. 6 and Aug. 9, 1945, approach, it’s a timely moment to look further at dilemmas wrought by the creation of the atomic bomb.</p>
<p>The Manhattan Project spawned a trinity of interconnected legacies. It initiated a <a href="https://theconversation.com/hiroshima-attack-marks-its-78th-anniversary-its-lessons-of-unnecessary-mass-destruction-could-help-guide-future-nuclear-arms-talks-210115">global arms race</a> that threatens the survival of humanity and the planet as we know it. It also led to widespread public health and environmental damage from nuclear weapons production and testing. And it generated a culture of governmental secrecy with troubling political consequences.</p>
<p><a href="https://chass.ncsu.edu/people/wjkinsel/">As a researcher</a> examining communication in science, technology, energy and environmental contexts, I’ve studied these <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780739119044/Nuclear-Legacies-Communication-Controversy-and-the-U.S.-Nuclear-Weapons-Complex">legacies of nuclear weapons production</a>. From 2000 to 2005, I also served on a <a href="http://www.hanford.gov/page.cfm/hab">citizen advisory board</a> that provides input to federal and state officials on a massive environmental cleanup program at the <a href="https://www.hanford.gov/">Hanford nuclear site</a> in Washington state that continues today.</p>
<p>Hanford is less well known than Los Alamos, New Mexico, where scientists designed the first atomic weapons, but it was also crucial to the Manhattan Project. There, an enormous, secret industrial facility produced the plutonium fuel for the <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/history/trinity-test-1945/">Trinity test</a> on July 16, 1945, and the bomb that incinerated Nagasaki a few weeks later. (The Hiroshima bomb was fueled by uranium produced in <a href="https://www.energy.gov/em/oak-ridge">Oak Ridge, Tennessee,</a> at another of the principal Manhattan Project sites.) </p>
<p>Later, workers at Hanford <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/othergov/doe/pu50yc.html">made most of the plutonium</a> used in the U.S. nuclear arsenal throughout the Cold War. In the process, Hanford became one of the most contaminated places on Earth. Total cleanup costs are projected to reach <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-22-105809.pdf">up to US$640 billion</a>, and the job won’t be completed for decades, if ever.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Hanford nuclear site in eastern Washington state is the most toxic site in the U.S.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Victims of nuclear tests</h2>
<p>Nuclear weapons production and testing have harmed public health and the environment in multiple ways. For example, a new study released in preprint form in July 2023 while awaiting scientific peer review finds that fallout from the Trinity nuclear test <a href="https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.11040.pdf">reached 46 U.S. states and parts of Canada and Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>Dozens of families who lived near the site – many of them Hispanic or Indigenous – were unknowingly exposed to radioactive contamination. So far, they <a href="https://slate.com/culture/2023/07/oppenheimer-christopher-nolan-manhattan-project-nuclear-testing-los-alamos-trinity-victims.html">have not been included</a> in the federal program to <a href="https://www.justice.gov/civil/common/reca">compensate uranium miners and “downwinders</a>” who developed radiation-linked illnesses after exposure to later atmospheric nuclear tests. </p>
<p>On July 27, 2023, however, the U.S. Senate voted to extend the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act and <a href="https://www.currentargus.com/story/news/2023/08/01/radiation-nuclear-exposed-new-mexicans-trinity-site-compensated-us-senate-vote-oppenheimer/70484797007/">expand it to communities near the Trinity test site</a> in New Mexico. A companion bill is under consideration in the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/location/marshall-islands/">largest above-ground U.S. tests</a>, along with tests conducted underwater, took place in the Pacific islands. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union and other nations conducted their own testing programs. <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally">Globally through 2017</a>, nuclear-armed nations exploded 528 weapons above ground or underwater, and an additional 1,528 underground. </p>
<p>Estimating <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-014-0491-1">how many people have suffered health effects</a> from these tests is notoriously difficult. So is accounting for <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/location/marshall-islands/">disruptions to communities</a> that were displaced by these experiments.</p>
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<h2>Polluted soil and water</h2>
<p>Nuclear weapons production has also exposed many people, communities and ecosystems to radiological and toxic chemical pollution. Here, Hanford offers troubling lessons.</p>
<p>Starting in 1944, workers at the remote site in eastern Washington state irradiated uranium fuel in reactors and then dissolved it in acid to extract its plutonium content. Hanford’s nine reactors, located along the Columbia River to provide a source of cooling water, discharged water <a href="https://cumulis.epa.gov/supercpad/SiteProfiles/index.cfm?fuseaction=second.cleanup&id=1001114">contaminated with radioactive and hazardous chemicals</a> into the river through <a href="https://ecology.wa.gov/waste-toxics/nuclear-waste/hanford-cleanup/hanford-overview">1987, when the last operating reactor was shut down</a>.</p>
<p>Extracting plutonium from the irradiated fuel, an activity called reprocessing, generated 56 million gallons of liquid waste laced with radioactive and chemical poisons. The wastes were stored in <a href="https://ecology.wa.gov/Waste-Toxics/Nuclear-waste/Hanford-cleanup/Tank-waste-management/Tank-monitoring-closure">underground tanks</a> designed to last 25 years, based on an assumption that a disposal solution would be developed later. </p>
<p>Seventy-eight years after the first tank was built, that solution remains elusive. A project to vitrify, or <a href="https://ecology.wa.gov/Waste-Toxics/Nuclear-waste/Hanford-cleanup/Tank-waste-management/Tank-waste-treatment">embed tank wastes in glass</a> for permanent disposal, has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/31/us/nuclear-waste-cleanup.html">mired in technical, managerial and political difficulties</a>, and repeatedly threatened with cancellation. </p>
<p>Now, officials are considering mixing some radioactive sludges <a href="https://crosscut.com/environment/2022/12/hanford-considers-quicker-way-clean-radioactive-waste">with concrete grout</a> and shipping them elsewhere for disposal – or perhaps leaving them in the tanks. Critics regard those proposals as <a href="https://www.hanfordchallenge.org/inheriting-hanford/2023/3/17/should-we-grout-tank-waste-at-hanford">risky compromises</a>. Meanwhile, an <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/energy/safety-resiliency/Pages/Hanford-Tank-Waste.aspx">estimated 1 million gallons</a> of liquid waste have leaked from some tanks into the ground, threatening the Columbia River, a backbone of the Pacific Northwest’s economy and ecology.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing cutaways of Hanford radioactive waste tanks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Underground waste tanks at the Hanford site, many of which are operating decades past their original design life. In total, they hold about 56 million gallons of radioactive and hazardous wastes. The Department of Energy has removed liquid wastes from all single-shell tanks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-73.pdf">USGAO</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Radioactive trash still litters parts of Hanford. Irradiated bodies of laboratory animals were <a href="https://www.seattlepi.com/local/article/Workers-uncover-carcasses-of-Hanford-test-animals-1225341.php">buried there</a>. The site houses radioactive debris ranging from medical waste to <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/energy/safety-resiliency/Pages/Naval-Nuclear-Transport.aspx">propulsion reactors from decommissioned submarines</a> and <a href="https://pdw.hanford.gov/document/E0025397?">parts of the reactor</a> that partially melted down at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania in 1979. Advocates for a full Hanford cleanup warn that without such a commitment, the site will become a “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Tainted-Desert-Environmental-and-Social-Ruin-in-the-American-West/Kuletz/p/book/9780415917711">national sacrifice zone</a>,” a place abandoned in the name of national security.</p>
<h2>A culture of secrecy</h2>
<p>As the movie “Oppenheimer” shows, government secrecy has shrouded nuclear weapons activities from their inception. Clearly, the science and technology of those weapons have dangerous potential and require careful safeguarding. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09505430120052284">as I’ve argued previously</a>, the principle of secrecy quickly expanded more broadly. Here again, Hanford provides an example.</p>
<p>Hanford’s reactor fuel was sometimes reprocessed before its most-highly radioactive isotopes had time to decay. In the 1940s and 1950s, managers <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1986/10/24/us/northwest-plutonium-plant-had-big-radioactive-emissions-in-40-s-and-50-s.html">knowingly released toxic gases into the air</a>, contaminating farmlands and pastures downwind. Some releases supported an <a href="https://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/199602/backpage.cfm">effort to monitor Soviet nuclear progress</a>. By tracking deliberate emissions from Hanford, scientists learned better how to spot and evaluate Soviet nuclear tests.</p>
<p>In the mid-1980s, local residents grew suspicious about an apparent excess of illnesses and deaths in their community. Initially, strict secrecy – reinforced by the region’s economic dependence on the Hanford site – made it hard for concerned citizens to get information.</p>
<p>Once the curtain of secrecy was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09505430120052284">partially lifted</a> under pressure from area residents and journalists, public outrage prompted <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/hanford/background.pdf">two major health effects studies</a> that engendered fierce controversy. By the close of the decade, more than 3,500 “downwinders” had filed lawsuits related to illnesses they attributed to Hanford. A judge finally <a href="http://www.tricityherald.com/news/local/hanford/article57866938.html">dismissed the case</a> in 2016 after awarding limited compensation to a handful of plaintiffs, leaving a bitter legacy of legal disputes and personal anguish.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Plaintiff Trisha Pritikin and attorney Tom Foulds reflect on 25 years of litigation over illnesses that ‘downwinders’ developed as a result of exposure to Hanford’s radiation releases.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cautionary legacies</h2>
<p>Currently active atomic weapons facilities also have seen their share of nuclear and toxic chemical contamination. Among them, <a href="https://www.lanl.gov/">Los Alamos National Laboratory</a> – home to Oppenheimer’s original compound, and now a site for both military and civilian research – has contended with <a href="https://www.newmexicopbs.org/productions/groundwater-war/2021/02/24/forever-chemicals-found-in-los-alamos-waters/">groundwater pollution</a>, <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/federal-watchdog-identifies-new-workplace-safety-problems-at-los-alamos-lab">workplace hazards</a> related to the toxic metal beryllium, and gaps in emergency planning and <a href="https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2023/07/17/safety-lapses-at-los-alamos-national-laboratory/">worker safety procedures</a>. </p>
<p>As Nolan’s film recounts, J. Robert Oppenheimer and many other Manhattan Project scientists had <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-05/features/once-more-into-breach-physicists-mobilize-again-counter-nuclear-threat">deep concerns</a> about how their work might create unprecedented dangers. Looking at the legacies of the Trinity test, I wonder whether any of them imagined the scale and scope of those outcomes.</p>
<p><em>This is an update of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cold-wars-toxic-legacy-costly-dangerous-cleanups-at-atomic-bomb-production-sites-90378">article</a> originally published March 5, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Kinsella served with the citizen advisory board for the Hanford site cleanup from 2000-2005, representing the public interest group Hanford Watch. </span></em></p>Nuclear weapons production and testing contaminated many sites across the US and exposed people unknowingly to radiation and toxic materials. Some have gone uncompensated for decades.William J. Kinsella, Professor Emeritus of Communication, North Carolina State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2106242023-07-28T01:27:39Z2023-07-28T01:27:39ZTrump faces additional charges – 4 essential reads to understand the case against him for hoarding classified documents<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539870/original/file-20230727-25-x9o6z4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C1678%2C1351&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Boxes containing classified documents are stored in a bathroom of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf">Department of Justice</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former President Donald Trump was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/27/us/politics/trump-documents-carlos-de-oliveira-charged.html">indicted yet again</a> on July 27, 2023, by federal prosecutors. While many were anticipating an imminent indictment <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/trump-lawyers-told-to-expect-an-indictment-on-charges-related-to-jan-6-189403717969">related to Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021</a>, when a group of his followers violently stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to disrupt the certification of Democrat Joe Biden’s election, <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/us-v-trump-nauta-de-oliveira-7-27/895d71fac28b2930/full.pdf">the new indictment</a> instead added to the charges Trump already faced for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/us/trump-investigations-charges-indictments.html">hoarding, mishandling and illegally sharing</a> presidential documents after he left office and refusing to return them.</p>
<p>The new indictment – called a “blockbuster” on CNN by former Manhattan prosecutor Karen Agnifilo – alleges that <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/us-v-trump-nauta-de-oliveira-7-27/895d71fac28b2930/full.pdf">Trump attempted to</a> “delete security camera footage at the Mar-a-Lago Club to conceal information from the FBI and grand jury” by telling a maintenance worker at the club to erase it. That worker, named in the indictment as Carlos De Oliveira, also faces charges now of obstruction in the new indictment.</p>
<p>The Conversation has published stories by experts on various aspects of the documents case and the unprecedented indictment of a former president. Here are a selection of them to provide background on the newly filed charges.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539872/original/file-20230727-24380-wdeiuy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bankers boxes are stacked ceiling high against a wall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539872/original/file-20230727-24380-wdeiuy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539872/original/file-20230727-24380-wdeiuy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539872/original/file-20230727-24380-wdeiuy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539872/original/file-20230727-24380-wdeiuy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539872/original/file-20230727-24380-wdeiuy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539872/original/file-20230727-24380-wdeiuy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539872/original/file-20230727-24380-wdeiuy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Classified documents belonging to the U.S. government sit in bankers’ boxes at former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf">Department of Justice</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. What are classified documents, anyway?</h2>
<p>Before he entered academia, University of Southern California international relations scholar <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeffrey-fields-282008">Jeffrey Fields</a> worked for many years as an analyst at both the State Department and the Department of Defense. He held a top-secret clearance and “frequently worked with classified information and participated in classified meetings.” </p>
<p>Fields explains that “classified information is the kind of material that the U.S. government or an agency deems sensitive enough to national security that access to it must be controlled and restricted.”</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/doj-probes-biden-document-handling-what-is-classified-information-anyway-197584">There are several degrees of classification</a>, he writes. “Documents related to nuclear weapons will have different classification levels depending on the sensitivity of the information contained. Documents containing information related to nuclear weapons design or their location would be highly classified.”</p>
<p>Such documents, writes Fields, “must be handled in a way that protects the integrity and confidentiality of the information they contain.” Want to know more? Fields helps you understand the different classification levels, and who gets to determine what levels each document is assigned.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doj-probes-biden-document-handling-what-is-classified-information-anyway-197584">DOJ probes Biden document handling – what is classified information, anyway?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. Why is Trump being charged under the Espionage Act?</h2>
<p>The documents case rests on provisions of the Espionage Act, which, despite its name, covers a lot more crimes than just spying. </p>
<p>Loyola University Chicago’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/thomas-a-durkin-1370427">Thomas A. Durkin</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joseph-ferguson-1370430">Joseph Ferguson</a>, attorneys who specialize in and teach national security law, write that “one portion of the act … does relate to spying for foreign governments, for which the maximum sentence is life imprisonment.”</p>
<p>More commonly, they write, as with the Trump investigation, “the act applies to the unauthorized gathering, possessing or transmitting of certain sensitive government information.”</p>
<p>A violation of the Espionage Act, then, <a href="https://theconversation.com/link-207373">does not require an intention</a> to aid a foreign power. And Democrats have violated the act: “Two recent senior Democratic administration officials – Sandy Berger, national security adviser during the Clinton administration, and David Petraeus, CIA director during the Obama administration – each pleaded guilty to misdemeanors under the threat of Espionage Act prosecution,” write Durkin and Ferguson. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-charged-under-espionage-act-which-covers-a-lot-more-crimes-than-just-spying-207373">Trump charged under Espionage Act – which covers a lot more crimes than just spying</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="White and brown lidded boxes sit on top of white stage that has gold ornamentation. Gold curtains hang in the back of the stage" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539867/original/file-20230727-80595-1gtcha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539867/original/file-20230727-80595-1gtcha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539867/original/file-20230727-80595-1gtcha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539867/original/file-20230727-80595-1gtcha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539867/original/file-20230727-80595-1gtcha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539867/original/file-20230727-80595-1gtcha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539867/original/file-20230727-80595-1gtcha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Boxes full of classified documents sit on top of an ornate stage inside the Mar-a-Lago Club’s White and Gold Ballroom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf">Department of Justice</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. No president is above the law</h2>
<p>Trump has attacked the head of the Department of Justice investigations into his conduct, Special Counsel Jack Smith, as “deranged.” He’s declared that the previous indictment represented “weaponized” politics. After the new indictment was revealed, he told Fox News that it constituted “election interference at the highest level” and said the allegations were “ridiculous.” </p>
<p>But national security law scholar <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dakota-rudesill-1448004">Dakota Rudesill</a>, who teaches at The Ohio State University, says the documents prosecution of Trump is <a href="https://theconversation.com/link-207970">lawful, constitutional, precedented, nonpartisan and merited</a>.</p>
<p>“Trump and his allies have argued that it is completely inappropriate for the former president to be charged,” writes Rudesill. “But no part of the Constitution, no statute and no Supreme Court precedent sets a former chief executive above the law.”</p>
<p>American history, Rudesill reminds us, “is replete with criminal charges against state officials, vice presidents – a former one during the founding era, and a sitting one in the 1970s – members of Congress and other prominent politicians.” </p>
<p>Rudesill’s essay walks readers through the charges Trump has made about the investigation – and the charges made by the investigators against Trump. </p>
<p>“Trump is right that his is inevitably a sensitive case because of his continued presence in the political arena,” Rudesill writes. “What he does not acknowledge is that maintaining the bedrock legal principle of equal justice requires avoiding twin hazards: politically motivated prosecutions and exempting elite politicians from the law.”</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-prosecution-for-keeping-secret-documents-is-lawful-constitutional-precedented-nonpartisan-and-merited-207970">Why Trump's prosecution for keeping secret documents is lawful, constitutional, precedented, nonpartisan and merited</a>
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</em>
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<h2>4. The campaign will go on</h2>
<p>Despite the extraordinary circumstances of facing multiple criminal indictments, there’s nothing stopping Trump from moving ahead with his presidential campaign. </p>
<p>Article II of the U.S. Constitution <a href="https://theconversation.com/link-197677">sets forth very explicit qualifications</a> for the presidency: The president must be 35 years of age, a U.S. resident for 14 years and a natural-born citizen, writes legal scholar <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stefanie-lindquist-518039">Stefanie Lindquist</a> of Arizona State University.</p>
<p>“In cases involving analogous qualifications for members of Congress, the Supreme Court has held that such qualifications form a "constitutional ceiling” – prohibiting any additional qualifications to be imposed by any means,“ she writes.</p>
<p>So, because the Constitution does not require that the president be free from indictment, conviction or prison, says Lindquist, "it follows that a person under indictment or in prison may run for the office and may even serve as president.”</p>
<p>That may be hard, Lindquist acknowledges. </p>
<p>“There seems no question that indictment, conviction or both – let alone a prison sentence – would significantly compromise a president’s ability to function in office,” says Lindquist. “And the Constitution doesn’t provide an easy answer to the problem posed by such a compromised chief executive.”</p>
<p>In other words, the country is in uncharted territory.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-indictments-wont-keep-him-from-presidential-race-but-will-make-his-reelection-bid-much-harder-197677">Trump indictments won't keep him from presidential race, but will make his reelection bid much harder</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210624/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Former President Donald Trump was indicted on further charges over his hoarding of classified documents – and he has a new co-defendant in the case.Naomi Schalit, Senior Editor, Politics + Democracy, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081432023-06-28T12:35:20Z2023-06-28T12:35:20ZThe New York Times worried that publishing the Pentagon Papers would destroy the newspaper — and the reputation of the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534167/original/file-20230626-5693-i6hmnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C17%2C2975%2C1808&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The New York Times resumed publication of its series of articles based on the Pentagon Papers in its July 1, 1971, edition, after it was given the green light by the Supreme Court. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PentagonPapersInTheTimes/61378866a8224e64be95556e7b29dcb5/photo?Query=Pentagon%20Papers%20New%20York%20Times&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1247&currentItemNo=0&vs=true">AP Photo/Jim Wells</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The late <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/16/us/daniel-ellsberg-dead.html">Daniel Ellsberg</a> was a former government contractor who leaked the classified history of the Vietnam War known as the Pentagon Papers to The New York Times. </p>
<p>In doing so, Ellsberg, who died on June 16, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/18/1007573283/how-the-pentagon-papers-changed-public-perception-of-the-war-in-vietnam">accelerated a shift in public opinion</a> against U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War and, some historians argue, led the Nixon administration to become ever more paranoid and secretive, eventually leading to the Watergate scandal and Nixon’s resignation. </p>
<p>But perhaps the most lasting effect the publication of the Pentagon Papers had was on The New York Times, which had been a solidly pro-establishment newspaper. </p>
<p>The Times almost chose not to publish the papers, since the editor and publisher worried about being sued or prosecuted by the federal government. But they also worried about ruining the international reputation of the U.S., which had reached new highs after World War II. </p>
<p>The leadership of the Times in the early 1970s was a generation older than the <a href="https://upress.missouri.edu/9780826222886/provoking-the-press/">younger reporters who agitated for change</a> from within and from without. They saw the stodgy, institutional Times as unable to accurately portray the turmoil of the 1960s and 1970s and pushed for the paper to reform itself to better speak to younger readers.</p>
<p>The decision to publish did not destroy the Times or the global standing of the U.S. It did begin to chip away at the hidebound paper’s reluctance to change too quickly or to damage political ties to the establishment. </p>
<p>While The New York Times is still slow to change, even more than 50 years after the Pentagon Papers affair, the incident did demonstrate that the paper was willing to jeopardize its connections to other powerful institutions, including the government, in order to serve the greater good – the public interest.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534172/original/file-20230626-33139-1gwq8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A cover page of a publication, labeled 'Top Secret - Sensitive' and entitled 'United States - Vietnam Relations, 1945-1967'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534172/original/file-20230626-33139-1gwq8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534172/original/file-20230626-33139-1gwq8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534172/original/file-20230626-33139-1gwq8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534172/original/file-20230626-33139-1gwq8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534172/original/file-20230626-33139-1gwq8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1012&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534172/original/file-20230626-33139-1gwq8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1012&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534172/original/file-20230626-33139-1gwq8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1012&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cover page of ‘The History of U.S. Decision-making Process on Vietnam,’ otherwise known as the Pentagon Papers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nara-media-001.s3.amazonaws.com/arcmedia/research/pentagon-papers/Pentagon-Papers-Part-I.pdf">US National Archives</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The conservative New York Times?</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gJ-kc4sAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I</a> am a historian of American journalism who has studied the turbulent 1960s and early 1970s and the turmoil it created in news organizations, and <a href="https://www.pennpress.org/9780812248883/media-nation/">I have written about the Pentagon Papers</a> and The New York Times’ publication process. I based this research on the journal of A.M. “Abe” Rosenthal, who was the top editor at the paper during this period. Rosenthal’s journal is held at the <a href="https://www.nypl.org/locations/schwarzman/manuscripts-division">New York Public Library</a>.</p>
<p>To those who charge – wrongly – that The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/24/public-editor/liz-spayd-the-new-york-times-public-editor.html">New York Times is a left-wing mouthpiece</a>, it may come as a surprise that The New York Times of 1971 was a conservative institution, unwilling to make waves or make itself the story. The paper’s editorial and business leadership was also fairly politically conservative.</p>
<p>Harrison Salisbury, who was then an associate editor at the paper, recalled the politics of the paper’s executives and top editors in his 1980 memoir. None of the editors could “have won a prize in a flaming liberal contest,” he wrote. And Rosenthal was “the most conservative editor on the paper.” According to Salisbury, Rosenthal chafed at the counterculture and positioned himself “firmly against what he saw as shapeless anarchy swirling up from the streets.”</p>
<p>In the pages of the Times, this manifested as pro-establishment stories. </p>
<p>Times reporter and Pulitzer Prize winner <a href="http://www.davidhalberstam.com">David Halberstam</a> criticized his employer for choosing the government’s version of events in Vietnam over what Halberstam knew from his reporting to be true. </p>
<p>J. Anthony Lukas, another Pulitzer Prize winner for the paper, fought to characterize the trial of <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/true-story-trial-chicago-7-180976063/">the Chicago 7</a>, a prosecution of political agitators at the 1968 Democratic National Convention, as a political show trial. The Times insisted that Lukas take the trial at face value, as the government presented it, which agitated Lukas enough that <a href="https://www.thecrimson.com/article/1970/11/17/chicago-the-barnyard-epithet-and-other/">he wrote a book about it</a>.</p>
<p>The Pentagon Papers were the government’s version of the early days of the Vietnam War, but they were a version that the government had not released to the public. The Defense Department had commissioned a secret history of the Vietnam War in order to avoid making the same mistakes it had made in that war in the future. </p>
<p>This study was highly classified because the story it told was not the same story that President Lyndon Johnson’s administration had told to the public, to news organizations or even to Congress. Instead, the papers showed that the government had systematically lied.</p>
<p>When reporter <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/us/pentagon-papers-neil-sheehan.html">Neil Sheehan photocopied all of the documents</a> that Ellsberg had pilfered and made available to him, he did not immediately inform the Times’s top editor, or even Ellsberg himself. Sheehan knew that the papers were an explosive story, but he also knew that they were classified and that merely possessing them, let alone publishing them, would be a federal crime. </p>
<p>Ellsberg was certainly at risk of going to prison for smuggling them out, and the Times might also face substantial legal penalties. Rosenthal first heard of the papers in April 1971, at least a few weeks after Sheehan obtained them and long after Sheehan knew of their existence. </p>
<p>In his journal, Rosenthal wrote that the Times was “involved in one of the biggest, most voluminous and probably one of the saddest and most damaging stories it has ever confronted journalistically.” </p>
<p>Rosenthal immediately realized just how important the handling of the Pentagon Papers would be to the Times and for the country. In his journal, he ruminated on his loyalty to the Times and the risk that publishing the Pentagon Papers might damage or even destroy the paper if the government prosecuted individual reporters or editors – or successfully sued the Times out of business. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534179/original/file-20230626-5418-rq42h7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired man in a suit and tie, wearing glasses and sitting down, looking happy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534179/original/file-20230626-5418-rq42h7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534179/original/file-20230626-5418-rq42h7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534179/original/file-20230626-5418-rq42h7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534179/original/file-20230626-5418-rq42h7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534179/original/file-20230626-5418-rq42h7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534179/original/file-20230626-5418-rq42h7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534179/original/file-20230626-5418-rq42h7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abe Rosenthal in 1965. He joined The New York Times in 1943 and worked there for 56 years, until 1999.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/AbeRosenthal/c50b3644ffc545368fc4cad4bc1075d8/photo?Query=Abe%20Rosenthal&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1&currentItemNo=0">AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Challenging the establishment</h2>
<p>The Times was not the only institution that might be damaged by publication. The reputation of the entire nation was at stake, and this caused Rosenthal more worry than protecting the paper. </p>
<p>He wondered if loyalty to country lay in “adhering to a set of long accepted rules and laws, designed not only to protect politicians in general but, to the minds of many, to protect the country itself? Or did it lie in facing a decision to break those rules and laws?” In other words, would breaking the government’s rules on classification make the United States stronger by forcing the country to publicly grapple with its shortcomings?</p>
<p>Rosenthal even worried for a time that the Pentagon Papers were fake, concocted by a student activist group to lure the Times into legal peril and public disrepute.</p>
<p>Rosenthal rented first one, and then two suites at a hotel in New York so that the writers and editors could work in total secrecy away from the paper’s newsroom, sorting through the papers and making sense of them. Editors, executives and lawyers debated over whether stories about the papers could or should be published at all.</p>
<p>Despite his own doubts, Rosenthal eventually decided to move ahead. He had to persuade the publisher, Arthur Ochs “Punch” Sulzberger, that the paper should run the stories, and Sulzberger agreed – against the advice of the paper’s law firm. </p>
<p>Rosenthal told Sulzberger that “it would make a mockery of everything we ever told reporters, because how could we possibly ask them to go out in search for the truth at a time when the ultimate truth, the biggest story ever presented to The Times, had been placed in our laps and we turned away from it out of fear of the consequences of publication?”</p>
<p>Ellsberg himself only learned the Times would publish their series on the Pentagon Papers when the pages of the first installment had already been set in type and prepared for publication. At that point, even the source of the documents couldn’t stop the presses.</p>
<p>For the Times, the Pentagon Papers stories were an early reform of many that would come under Rosenthal and his successors. The reforms tried to address the concerns of the younger generation of reporters who were better in touch with a changing United States. They included expanded arts and cultural coverage, better treatment of women’s issues, and accountability measures such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00947679.2017.12059156">a daily corrections box</a>.</p>
<p>Rosenthal, and ultimately the Times as a whole, recognized that as the nation and world changed, so must the Times, to fulfill its duty to the public – and the public interest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin M. Lerner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The New York Times’ publication of the Pentagon Papers showed the paper was willing to jeopardize connections to other powerful institutions, including the government, to serve the public interest.Kevin M. Lerner, Associate Professor of Journalism, Marist CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071962023-06-19T19:56:21Z2023-06-19T19:56:21ZChronic sexual misconduct in Canada’s military is a national security threat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532270/original/file-20230615-15-uazzaw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C5042%2C3026&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Defence Minister Anita Anand and Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre take questions from the media in January 2023 in Ottawa. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/Spencer Colby</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-taking-canadas-armed-forces-so-long-to-tackle-sexual-misconduct-196869">has a serious problem when it comes to sexual violence</a>.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-special-forces-leaders-warned-about-untouchable-soldiers-who-have-escaped-punishment-for-wrongdoing/wcm/0c9056dd-7498-46b3-a6a5-bd2b88caf774/amp/">a recent report</a>, the Canadian Special Operations Forces Command (CANSOFCOM), an elite branch of the Canadian Armed Forces, has exposed a troubling culture of reticence and double standards when it comes to addressing misconduct. </p>
<p>According to internal reviews conducted for senior leadership, certain elite groups within the command enjoy immunity, are shielded from accountability and are protected from the consequences of serious issues of misconduct. </p>
<p>Take for example the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/military-sexual-assault-1.6004040">sexual assault conviction of Maj. Jonathan Hamilton</a> involving retired Logistics Officer Annalise Schamuhn, the wife of retired special forces Maj. Kevin Schamuhn, who both had the courage to speak publicly about their story.</p>
<p>A judge found Hamilton guilty on six criminal counts in 2017, including unlawfully entering the Schamuhn residence and sexually assaulting Annalise Schamuhn on two separate occasions. Prior to sentencing, Maj.-Gen. Peter Dawe, a deputy commander in Kevin Schamuhn’s chain of command, submitted letters to the court in support of Hamilton.</p>
<p>In a CBC interview, Kevin Schamuhn said that when he confronted Dawe about it, Dawe admitted wanting to influence Hamilton’s sentence because he believed Hamilton was a “good guy” who deserved leniency. </p>
<p>When news of Dawe’s actions came to light four years later, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/special-forces-commander-on-leave-1.6011036">he was relieved of his command</a> and placed on paid leave.</p>
<p>But not long after, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/peter-dawe-sexual-misconduct-review-1.6199670">Dawe was quietly reinstated</a> and appointed to help lead the CAF response to sexual misconduct reviews, further calling into question the integrity of the CAF complaint process and eroding trust within the ranks.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a beige beret and military uniform speaks into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532274/original/file-20230615-19-cgg175.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Incoming commander of CANSOFCOM, Maj.-Gen. Peter Dawe, speaks at a Canadian Special Operations Forces Command change of command ceremony in Ottawa in April 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Patrick Doyle</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Untouchable soldiers</h2>
<p>It’s clear from this case and others that <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-special-forces-leaders-warned-about-untouchable-soldiers-who-have-escaped-punishment-for-wrongdoing">CANSOFCOM promotes a repressive culture</a> whereby the offender is often supported while the victim is forgotten or blamed.</p>
<p>Speaking up against injustice in the CAF can lead to harsh repercussions, producing an environment of secrets, stagnation and continuing consequences. CANSOFCOM’s mission statement includes <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/special-operations-forces-command/corporate/cansofcom-command-culture-statement.html">the “relentless pursuit of excellence</a>” but that doesn’t seem to apply when it comes to workplace violence.</p>
<p>This toxic culture is a longstanding problem. The Canadian government set aside approximately $800 million in 2019 to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/world/canada/military-sexual-misconduct-class-action.html">resolve class-action sexual assault lawsuits</a> launched by serving and retired military personnel. In fact, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/sexual-misconduct-military-survey-1.3868377">more than a quarter of female members</a> in the CAF have reported sexual assault. </p>
<p>The CAF’s inability to exercise effective leadership and maintain focus is a serious obstacle to bringing about lasting change. </p>
<p>Defence Minister Anita Anand has pledged to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/anita-anand-arbour-justice-1.6236969">“take on” bad behaviour</a>, but it’s clear that promise has yet to be fulfilled. In 2021, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that the “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/military-doesnt-get-it-sexual-misconduct-1.6201648">CAF just doesn’t get it</a>” when it comes to sexual misconduct in its ranks, but he has since been mute on the subject. </p>
<p>Cultural improvements have yet to be achieved, even after <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/conduct-and-culture/sexual-misconduct-apology.html">Anand’s 2022 public apology</a> to a CAF member over abuse in the ranks, the transfer of sexual misconduct cases to civilian tribunals and the creation of the CAF’s Sexual Misconduct Response Centre and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/operation-honour-dnd-military-brewster-1.5779927">Operation HONOUR</a> that aims to combat sexual misconduct. That initiative still appears to be struggling to execute its mission.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a red coat with dark hair is seen from behind as she waves at a patrol ship in a harbour." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458718/original/file-20220419-20-2cebpo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Defence Minister Anita Anand waves as HMCS Halifax departs Halifax in support of NATO in eastern Europe in March 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>End the silence</h2>
<p>It’s time to end the silence. Trudeau, Anand and CAF leaders have the opportunity to lead the way when it comes to addressing issues of workplace bullying, harassment and sexual abuse in the organization. So why aren’t they?</p>
<p>These issues constitute real and immediate threats to our national security because they fracture trust and safety among those tasked with protecting Canada. These threats are coming from within the ranks. The <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/sexual-misconduct-canadian-forces-vance-mcdonald-1.5980394">endemic CAF culture of victim blaming</a> falls short of the basic principles of decency, honour and justice — and it’s time for real action. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman with brown hair and glasses adjusts her earpiece while sitting at a table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532230/original/file-20230615-17-59m26q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marie Deschamps attends a committee on the external review into sexual misconduct and sexual harassment in the Canadian Armed Forces in Ottawa in May 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A multi-faceted strategy is needed to include victim aid, policy change, leadership responsibility and education like the one proposed by Marie Deschamps, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/corporate/reports-publications/sexual-misbehaviour/external-review-2015.html">the former Supreme Court justice who was appointed to conduct one of the many reviews into sexual misconduct in the CAF.</a></p>
<p>To eradicate sexual assault, the CAF must commit to transformative leadership and emphasize the dignity, respect and equality of those who serve — not those who offend. </p>
<p>The principle of “see something, say something” must not lead to negative consequences for the victim. CAF members are asked to serve and sacrifice on the battlefield, so why can’t they be protected from each other?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sexual-misconduct-abuse-of-power-adultery-and-secrecy-what-i-witnessed-in-canadas-military-158345">Sexual misconduct, abuse of power, adultery and secrecy: What I witnessed in Canada’s military</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Public health issue</h2>
<p>Workplace violence is <a href="https://theconversation.com/workplace-bullying-should-be-treated-as-a-public-health-issue-190330">a public health issue</a>. The <a href="https://escipub.com/Articles/IJPRR/IJPRR-2020-01-1205.pdf">consequences of bullying, harassment and sexualized violence </a> at work have serious impacts on the physical and mental health of victims. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/workplace-bullying-should-be-treated-as-a-public-health-issue-190330">Workplace bullying should be treated as a public health issue</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Meaningful and effective intervention is a necessary step in combating these issues, but to do so effectively, change needs to start at the top.</p>
<p>Perhaps it’s time for Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, to take on workplace violence. Tam is someone who gets things done. During the COVID-19 pandemic, she led Canada’s public health response and ensured widespread public health measures were put in place to save lives. </p>
<p>The mandate of the Public Health Agency of Canada includes <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html">identifying health risks to Canadians</a> — and workplace violence falls squarely within this purview as a threat to the health and well-being of all Canadians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207196/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Walker is affiliated with the Liberal Party of Canada (Member). </span></em></p>The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) has a serious problem with sexual violence. The military’s chronic and unresolved toxic culture puts the country’s national security at risk.Jason Walker, Associate Professor, Graduate Studies, Leadership and People Management, University Canada WestLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2074842023-06-14T12:38:09Z2023-06-14T12:38:09ZHow the exposure of highly classified documents could harm US security – and why there are laws against storing them insecurely<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531483/original/file-20230612-146960-so9343.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1675%2C1349&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Boxes containing classified documents are stored in a bathroom of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf">Department of Justice </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>When Donald Trump pled not guilty on June 13, 2023, to <a href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf">federal criminal charges</a> related to his alleged illegal retention of classified documents, it was his first opportunity to formally answer charges that he violated <a href="https://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/disp_textbook.cfm?smtID=3&psid=3904">the Espionage Act</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The Justice Department alleges that, after his presidency, Trump held, in an unsecure location, documents about some of the nation’s most sensitive secrets, including information about U.S. nuclear programs as well as U.S. and allies’ defense and weapons capabilities and potential vulnerabilities to military attack and that he repeatedly thwarted efforts by the National Archives to retrieve them.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked <a href="https://bush.tamu.edu/faculty/gross/">Gary Ross, a scholar of Intelligence studies</a>, who has investigated cases involving the mishandling and <a href="https://ni-u.edu/ni_press/pdf/Who_Watches_the_Watchmen.pdf">unauthorized disclosure of classified information</a> for multiple U.S. government agencies, to define some of the categories of risk detailed in the indictment and explain how the U.S. and allies may have been harmed.</em> </p>
<h2>What’s the risk to US national security?</h2>
<p>U.S. <a href="https://www.justice.gov/jm/jm-9-90000-national-security#:%7E:text=National%20security%20encompasses%20the%20national,internal%20security%2C%20and%20foreign%20relations.">national security</a> includes the country’s ability to defend itself, collect and analyze sensitive information about other nations’ capabilities and intentions, and maintain relationships with allies. National security can be compromised in a variety of ways.</p>
<p>Americans are familiar with espionage, or spying. It’s when a government recruits an official or resident of another country – just as the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/05/politics/robert-hanssen/index.html">Soviet Union recruited Robert Hanssen</a>, a senior FBI special agent, in 1979 - to provide classified U.S. intelligence. </p>
<p>But the Espionage Act is much broader than traditional spying and includes the unauthorized possession, storage or disclosure of classified information.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-indictment-unsealed-a-criminal-law-scholar-explains-what-the-charges-mean-and-what-prosecutors-will-now-need-to-prove-207469">the federal indictment</a>, Trump stored boxes containing various levels of classified material in different parts of The Mar-a-Lago Club, his Palm Beach, Florida, resort. Boxes were kept on a ballroom stage, in his bedroom and in a bathroom and shower between Jan. 20, 2021, when he left the White House, and Aug. 8, 2022, when the FBI recovered 102 classified documents.</p>
<p>Trump had <a href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf">returned some classified material</a> on Jan. 17, 2022, and June 3, 2022. </p>
<p>This was particularly concerning because, according to the indictment, Mar-a-Lago was the site of more than 150 social events, attended by tens of thousands of people, between January 2021 and August 2022.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531493/original/file-20230612-23-o7nsp1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="White and brown lidded boxes sit on top of white stage that has gold ornamentation. Gold curtains hang in the back of the stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531493/original/file-20230612-23-o7nsp1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531493/original/file-20230612-23-o7nsp1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531493/original/file-20230612-23-o7nsp1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531493/original/file-20230612-23-o7nsp1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531493/original/file-20230612-23-o7nsp1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531493/original/file-20230612-23-o7nsp1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531493/original/file-20230612-23-o7nsp1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Boxes full of classified documents sit on top of an ornate stage inside the Mar-a-Lago Club’s White and Gold Ballroom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf">Department of Justice</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Historically, foreign spies have attempted to enter highly secure U.S. government buildings to obtain classified information. In 1987, for example, the U.S. Marine Corps charged two Marine guards <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1987/03/28/us/marines-say-two-guards-allowed-russians-to-roam-us-embassy-by-stephen-engelberg.html">with allowing Soviet agents</a> to repeatedly access sensitive areas inside the U.S. Embassy in Moscow. </p>
<p>If foreign spies knew Trump stored classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, they may have attempted to enter the property. In 2019, a Chinese business consultant entered the resort and initially <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/25/chinese-trespasser-at-trumps-mar-a-lago-resort-sentenced.html">got past Secret Service agents</a>. She was stopped in the main reception area, carrying multiple electronic devices.</p>
<h2>What’s the risk to sources and methods?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195375886.003.0004">U.S. uses sources and methods</a> such as spy satellites and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195375886.003.0004">foreign citizens or assets</a> to clandestinely gather information about other countries. </p>
<p>Based on the classification markings identified in the indictment, documents Trump stored at Mar-a-Lago contained intelligence from multiple U.S. sources, including satellite images, human sources and intercepted foreign communications, which can include cell phone calls or email messages.</p>
<p>If other countries gained access to this intelligence, their counterintelligence professionals could learn how the U.S. obtained specific information and they could use countermeasures that could render a particular source or method useless to the U.S. moving forward. </p>
<p>In April 1983, a <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/suicide-bomber-destroys-u-s-embassy-in-beirut">terrorist attack killed 63 people</a> at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut. At the time, the terrorist organization operating in Syria was <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/1983-United-States-embassy-bombing">communicating with counterparts in Iran</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1986/04/20/safeguarding-our-freedoms-as-we-cover-terrorist-acts/4ab41319-95dc-43ab-b28e-2fe634c5fac1/">The U.S. government began intercepting the traffic</a>, which two media outlets later reported, according to an opinion piece by Katherine Graham published in The Washington Post. Shortly after, communication between Syria and Iran stopped and the U.S. intelligence community lost insight into the Syrian terrorists’s activities. This may have left the U.S. unable <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/06/13/world/meast/beirut-marine-barracks-bombing-fast-facts/index.html">to detect or prevent an attack</a> by the <a href="https://www.dni.gov/nctc/groups/hizballah.html">same terrorist group</a> on the Marine barracks in Beirut six months later. That attack left 241 U.S. service men and women dead.</p>
<h2>What’s the risk to US foreign relations and alliances?</h2>
<p>Diplomacy, the <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/ei/rls/dos/107330.htm#:%7E:text=The%20U.S.%20Department%20of%20State%20manages%20America%27s%20relationships%20with%20foreign,these%20relationships%20is%20called%20diplomacy.">connection between sovereign states</a>, largely forged through foreign policy, is an important component of national security, as is intelligence sharing among allied intelligence services.</p>
<p>The U.S., for example, belongs to what is known as the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/25/world/uk-us-five-eyes-intelligence-explainer/index.html">Five Eyes intelligence alliance</a>, in which intelligence agencies from five allied countries share a range of information. But, the allegation that a document with Five Eyes classification markings had spilled onto a Mar-a-Lago storage room floor may lead the other four countries to reconsider their level of information sharing with the U.S. It has happened before.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white box containing documents and folders spills onto the floor where newspapers are spread out. A short stack of boxes stands nearby." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531494/original/file-20230612-27-awxc1v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531494/original/file-20230612-27-awxc1v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531494/original/file-20230612-27-awxc1v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531494/original/file-20230612-27-awxc1v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531494/original/file-20230612-27-awxc1v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531494/original/file-20230612-27-awxc1v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531494/original/file-20230612-27-awxc1v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Classified documents meant to be seen only by the Five Eyes intelligence alliance and newspapers spill onto the floor of a storage room of the Mar-a-Lago Club.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf">The Department of Justice</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After the 9/11 terrorist attack, a report by the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GPO-WMD">Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction</a> documented two instances in which allied intelligence agencies refused to share sensitive information with the U.S. due to concerns that the U.S. would not protect the information.</p>
<h2>What are the risks to soldiers and citizens?</h2>
<p>In addition to information about U.S. nuclear programs, U.S. and allies’ defense and weapons capabilities and potential military vulnerabilities, the indictment alleges Trump also unlawfully retained classified information about U.S. military retaliation plans in response to a foreign attack.</p>
<p>In enemy hands, this intelligence, if still valid, could significantly increase their ability to develop effective countermeasures or to alter their military tactics. At best, this could prolong a conflict, and, at worst, could allow an adversary to defeat U.S. forces, which could jeopardize citizens’ lives.</p>
<p>In each scenario, the lives of U.S. service members could be placed at increased risk. </p>
<p>Additionally, an enemy able to identify a U.S. vulnerability, particularly a self-identified vulnerability, can also try to exploit that weakness to their advantage, just as the United States did during World War II. </p>
<p>Prior to the 1942 <a href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/battle-midway">Battle of Midway</a>, U.S. intelligence intercepted and decrypted communications detailing Japan’s military strategy for the upcoming battle. </p>
<p>U.S. forces took advantage of the information, won the decisive conflict and <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/battle-of-midway">turned the tide of the war</a>. </p>
<p>Ironically, the U.S. was unsuccessful in safeguarding the fact that it had intercepted and decrypted Japanese communications. A Naval officer allowed a Chicago Tribune journalist unauthorized access to classified U.S. communications. The journalist subsequently <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2017/06/05/unsealed-75-years-after-the-battle-of-midway-new-details-of-a-critical-wwii-press-leak/">wrote an article revealing the U.S. penetration</a>. This was one of the few instances in which the U.S. government considered, but ultimately rejected, prosecuting a media outlet for disclosing national defense information.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated on October 27, 2023 to correct the years of dates cited in the indictment.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207484/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Ross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The indictment identifies categories of risk to the United States and its allies due to his alleged mishandling of classified documents. A scholar of intelligence studies examines four of them.Gary Ross, Associate Professor of Intelligence Studies, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073842023-06-12T17:44:26Z2023-06-12T17:44:26ZA jury of ex-presidents? No, but Trump’s fate will be decided by 12 citizen peers, in a hallowed tradition of US democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531374/original/file-20230612-270005-vuhapd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A judge bench and a jury box are seen in a U.S. courthouse in Cleveland, Ohio.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/564093673/photo/east-courtroom-judge-bench-and-jury-box-howard-m-metzenbaum-u-s-courthouse-cleveland-ohio.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=odacBdzPHvUBQHg-tFIbT2PJdGT5QZ9j63-HX4Yh_I8=">Carol M. Highsmith/Buyenlarge/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is not the federal government that will hold Donald Trump’s future in its hands. It will be 12 jury members in his eventual trial.</p>
<p>Trump appears in federal court on June 13, 2023 for his arraignment and the formal presentation of the charges lodged against him in a <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23839628-trump-indictment">37-count indictment</a> released on June 9, 2023. </p>
<p>Trump’s defenders have alleged that the indictment is a politically motivated “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-27/four-out-of-five-republicans-think-trump-investigations-are-witch-hunt">witch hunt</a>” by the Biden administration and that any conviction would thus be discredited. </p>
<p>But like all federal defendants, Trump will be protected by the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-vi">Sixth Amendment’s right to a jury trial</a>. That right, to have a jury of 12 citizens render judgment on his case, protects Trump from the government’s overstepping citizens’ limits on its power – a dynamic that is often lost in the political sound and fury over his state and federal indictments.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531369/original/file-20230612-216609-h13kwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A yellow sign with a black arrow points toward a large glass building, with palm trees outside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531369/original/file-20230612-216609-h13kwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531369/original/file-20230612-216609-h13kwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531369/original/file-20230612-216609-h13kwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531369/original/file-20230612-216609-h13kwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531369/original/file-20230612-216609-h13kwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531369/original/file-20230612-216609-h13kwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531369/original/file-20230612-216609-h13kwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People pass by the Wilkie D. Ferguson Jr. United States Federal Courthouse, where Trump is scheduled to appear this week, in Miami, Fla.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1497666902/photo/miami-readies-for-former-president-trumps-arraignment-in-federal-court.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=M3BFPN36uNmGLhToI5msZAFbvFoFl5T3leNOrlvDcfY=">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘In the hands of the governed’</h2>
<p>Sourced to the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Magna-Carta">Magna Carta</a>, the 13th-century charter of rights, jury trials have become a feature in all countries that share the British legal tradition, shielding citizens from unlimited prosecutorial power. </p>
<p>As the shrewd observer <a href="https://www.kenwoodacademy.org/ourpages/auto/2013/11/28/53482855/dem-in-america1.pdf">Alexis de Tocqueville</a> remarked in 1835, juries “place the real direction of society in the hands of the governed [because] he who punishes the criminal … is the real master of society.” </p>
<p>Supreme Court Justice Lewis Powell observed in 1966 that juries are especially significant in the trial of crimes against the state such as treason and sedition, which therefore can be considered political – and perhaps more open to prosecutorial abuse.</p>
<p>“It was just such abuses that caused our English and American forebears <a href="https://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=3586&context=wlulr">to prize trial by jury so highly</a>,” Powell said. </p>
<p>And Thomas Jefferson <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/01-15-02-0259">wrote</a> that he “consider[ed] trial by jury as the only anchor even yet imagined by man, by which a government can be held to the principles of its constitution.”</p>
<p>In federal court in criminal prosecutions, such as Trump’s, a 12-member jury is a <a href="https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-supreme-court/170/343.html">matter of right</a>, and that jury must reach a unanimous verdict to convict. </p>
<h2>Serious scrutiny</h2>
<p>The jury pool in federal cases is <a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/services-forms/jury-service/learn-about-jury-service">randomly drawn</a> from registered voters and people with driver’s licenses who live in the district.<br>
The process called “voir dire” allows defense attorneys to request that the judge reject certain potential jurors for cause – on grounds of some demonstrated issue of bias, such as when questioning of a juror reveals strong prejudice for or against a defendant. In Trump’s case, jurors’ political affiliations, and the depth of their partisan commitments, may be relevant and <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/158/408/">permissible grounds</a> for questioning at the trial court’s discretion. </p>
<p>Even potential jurors’ social media accounts may be investigated to expose their political views. Voir dire also allows defense attorneys to reject – in legal parlance, to “strike” – up to 10 jurors <a href="https://www.federalrulesofcriminalprocedure.org/title-vi-trial/rule-24-trial-jurors/">for no cause at all</a>. </p>
<p>Federal rules allow up to six alternative jurors in the event one is dismissed by the judge for improper behavior, such as violating the judge’s instructions regarding access to media or <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11812807/Juror-Murdaugh-kicked-case-discussing-evidence-THREE-people.html">discussing the case</a> with people outside of court. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531410/original/file-20230612-218720-ucxday.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man with dark hair, wearing a 19th century jacket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531410/original/file-20230612-218720-ucxday.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531410/original/file-20230612-218720-ucxday.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531410/original/file-20230612-218720-ucxday.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531410/original/file-20230612-218720-ucxday.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531410/original/file-20230612-218720-ucxday.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=892&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531410/original/file-20230612-218720-ucxday.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=892&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531410/original/file-20230612-218720-ucxday.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=892&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">French politician Alexis de Tocqueville, an observer of early America, famously said juries ‘place the real direction of society in the hands of the governed.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/alexis-de-tocqueville-french-historian-original-artwork-news-photo/3309867?adppopup=true">Lithograph by von Chasseriau, photo by Hulton Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>High profile, high pressure</h2>
<p>If he chooses to go to trial, Donald Trump will face a jury of his peers carefully scrutinized by his defense attorneys for potential bias, who may be replaced in the event they misbehave. Like all criminal defendants, Trump will enjoy the protection that the jury will offer him from abuse by the government’s prosecutors. </p>
<p>Of course, jurors in high-profile cases such as United States v. Trump face pretrial exposure to extensive media coverage. But this is nothing new. </p>
<p>Early in the history of the republic, <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-great-trial-that-tested-the-constitutions-treason-clause">Vice President Aaron Burr stood trial for treason</a> on grounds that he had fomented a military effort to separate the Louisiana Territory from the United States. After he resigned from the vice presidency during Jefferson’s last term in office, Burr traveled the country gathering collaborators in his plot to separate the western territories from the union. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.famous-trials.com/burr/156-home">Burr’s trial</a> in Richmond, Virginia, was presided over by U.S. Chief Justice John Marshall and <a href="https://www.neh.gov/humanities/2013/mayjune/feature/burr-versus-jefferson-versus-marshall">became a cause célèbre</a>, with widespread and detailed coverage in newspapers in Virginia. </p>
<p>Marshall <a href="https://www.neh.gov/humanities/2013/mayjune/feature/burr-versus-jefferson-versus-marshall">struggled with the effect of pretrial publicity</a> on the jury but ultimately concluded that finding a jury without any such exposure would be impossible and thus not required. <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-great-trial-that-tested-the-constitutions-treason-clause">Burr was ultimately acquitted</a>. </p>
<p>Jurors themselves, however, may face more significant personal difficulties in discharging their duties, including significant pressure associated with public scrutiny. Jurors in the high-profile case involving Rodney King, for example, experienced threats and disturbing phone calls <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1993-02-15-9303182165-story.html">when their names became public</a>. </p>
<p>Jurors may also experience <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/jury-murder-trials-justice-court-ontario-ptsd-trauma-1.3796520">post-traumatic stress disorders</a> and other stress-related health issues following high-profile trials or trials entailing disturbing evidence. </p>
<p>For these reasons, the jurors in the Trump trial may be protected by anonymity, if the presiding judge orders it. There was such <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-face-anonymous-jury-high-profile-new-york-defamation-trial-2023-03-23/">an order</a> in the E. Jean Carroll case against Trump in New York. </p>
<p>How Judge Aileen Cannon – <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/4042423-trump-appointed-judge-aileen-cannon-assigned-to-his-documents-case/">twice reversed</a> by a higher court for Trump-friendly rulings – will approach the issue of juror anonymity is unclear.</p>
<p>Given the agitation among Trump’s supporters, the high-stakes nature of the case, and the importance of protecting the jurors – who wield such power in the judicial system – I believe such an order is necessary.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207384/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefanie Lindquist does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Like all criminal defendants, Trump will enjoy the protection that a jury will offer from abuse by government prosecutors.Stefanie Lindquist, Foundation Professor of Law and Political Science, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2074822023-06-12T11:49:48Z2023-06-12T11:49:48Z‘If you want to die in jail, keep talking’ – two national security law experts discuss the special treatment for Trump and offer him some advice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531249/original/file-20230611-23-dl1h4f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2953%2C1921&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump on his airplane on June 10, 2023, two days after his federal indictment.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-president-donald-trump-speaks-to-staff-and-reporters-news-photo/1258608437?adppopup=true">Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Lawyer Thomas A. Durkin has spent much of his career working in <a href="https://www.luc.edu/law/faculty/facultyandadministrationprofiles/durkin-thomas.shtml">national security law</a>, representing clients in a variety of national security and domestic terrorism matters. <a href="https://www.luc.edu/law/faculty/facultyandadministrationprofiles/ferguson-joseph.shtml">Joseph Ferguson</a> was a national security prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Illinois, where Durkin was also a prosecutor. Both teach national security law at Loyola University, Chicago. The Conversation U.S.’s democracy editor, Naomi Schalit, spoke with the two attorneys about <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23839628-trump-indictment">the federal indictment of former President Donald Trump</a> on Espionage Act and other charges related to his retention of national security-related classified documents.</em></p>
<p><strong><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republicans-repeat-trumps-claim-doj-weaponization-after-2nd/story?id=99963397">The word “weaponized”</a> has been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-magnifies-attacks-justice-department-post-charges-speech-2023-06-10/">used by Trump</a>, his supporters and even his GOP rivals to describe the Department of Justice. Do you see the Trump prosecution as different in any notable way from other Espionage Act prosecutions that you’ve worked on or observed?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Durkin</strong>: Obviously, it’s different because of who the defendant is. But I see it in kind of an opposite way: If Trump were anyone other than a former president, he would not have been given the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/23/us/reality-winner-nsa-sentence.html">luxury of a summons to appear in court</a>. There would be a team of armed FBI agents outside his door at 6:30 in the morning, he would have been arrested and the government would be immediately moving to detain. So the idea that he’s being treated differently is true – but not from the way his supporters seem to be arguing. </p>
<p><strong>Ferguson</strong>: What you have is a method, manner and means of pursuing this matter and bringing it forward to indictment that actually completely comports with the deepest traditions and standards of the Department of Justice, which would normally consider all contexts and the best interests of society. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531252/original/file-20230611-150540-ts7ejl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark haired man with a bear approaching a lectern." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531252/original/file-20230611-150540-ts7ejl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531252/original/file-20230611-150540-ts7ejl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531252/original/file-20230611-150540-ts7ejl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531252/original/file-20230611-150540-ts7ejl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531252/original/file-20230611-150540-ts7ejl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531252/original/file-20230611-150540-ts7ejl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531252/original/file-20230611-150540-ts7ejl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Special Counsel Jack Smith briefly discussed the Trump indictment on June 9, 2023, in Washington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/special-counsel-jack-smith-makes-a-statement-from-the-news-photo/1258577211?adppopup=true">Tom Brenner for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>If Trump were your client, what would you advise him to do?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Durkin</strong>: The first thing I would do is show him a guidelines memo, which we typically create for every client to help them understand the potential consequences of the charges. Under the <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2023/06/qa-on-trumps-federal-indictment/">U.S. Sentencing Guidelines, the consequences for Trump under this indictment are serious</a>. My quick calculations indicate that you’re talking about 51 to 63 months in the best case and in the worst case, which I’m not sure would apply, 210 to 262 months. </p>
<p>Whether he wants to roll heavy dice, that’s up to him. But those are very heavy dice. </p>
<p><strong>Ferguson</strong>: I might pull media statements that he has made in the last couple years and explain to him how they have complicated the ability to defend him. I’d put on the table to him that I need to see every statement that he is going to make in the political realm about this before he makes it. I’d tell him he’s otherwise basically hanging himself. </p>
<p>I’d tell him: If you want to die in jail, keep talking. But if you want to try to figure out a way that brings about an acceptable resolution - a plea deal that opens the door to a lighter jail sentence than what the guidelines threaten and, possibly, even no jail time – you need to turn it down or at least have it screened by your lawyers. </p>
<p><strong>Are there specific things he might say between now and a trial that could deepen his trouble?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Ferguson</strong>: No question about that. And people should understand that the things that he said already are being used as <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23839628-trump-indictment">evidence of intent</a>. From now on, the repetition of them constitutes new admissible evidence. It’s not like, “Oh, I’ve already said it, so I might as well keep saying it.” </p>
<p>That does not mean that he cannot offer the broad brush characterization, “I’m being wronged. This is the weaponization of law enforcement and the justice system against me, and I will be vindicated,” however imprudent I might think that was. But anything that goes beyond that, and into the actual particulars, referencing the documents themselves, will just make it worse. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531253/original/file-20230611-25-wqcduw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A pile of pages from an indictment." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531253/original/file-20230611-25-wqcduw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531253/original/file-20230611-25-wqcduw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531253/original/file-20230611-25-wqcduw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531253/original/file-20230611-25-wqcduw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531253/original/file-20230611-25-wqcduw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531253/original/file-20230611-25-wqcduw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531253/original/file-20230611-25-wqcduw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pages from the unsealed federal indictment of former President Donald Trump on 37 felony counts in the classified documents probe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-photo-illustration-pages-are-viewed-from-the-news-photo/1258567425?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p><strong>The Trump indictment provides <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/09/trump-indictment-takeaways-00101376">extensive details</a> of what was said and done. Do you take those as true, or as allegations that need to be proved?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Ferguson</strong>: Both. They are technically the allegations that need to be proven, but when you’re speaking at that level of granularity, these are things that actually exist in proof, the proof that is to come. </p>
<p>The government basically raises the bar when it provides this form of granularity. The federal government is a risk-averse enterprise when it comes to these matters, so nothing is put in the indictment unless it exists in actual fact.</p>
<p><strong>Durkin</strong>: If you’re defending someone, you treat the allegations as true.</p>
<p><strong>Can you imagine a situation with all of the facts laid out in this indictment but where they would not indict?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Durkin</strong>: No.</p>
<p><strong>Ferguson</strong>: That’s why we both say that in fundamental respects, this isn’t different from other national security cases. These cases work from the premise that this is a fundamental compromising of the interests of the United States. And those are the cases that the government pursues tooth and nail. With so much in the public domain, and with so much of the defendant himself speaking to all of this, it almost puts the government in a position of saying, “Well, OK, if we have to, here we go.”</p>
<p><strong>Durkin</strong>: There’s only one reason the government could not bring this case, and that’s fear of violence or an attack on the republic. Once you do that, then you might as well close the Department of Justice and forget about any rule of law. </p>
<p><strong>Trump knows a lot of state secrets. An angry Trump in prison has risks. If he were found guilty, what does incarceration look like for him?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Durkin</strong>: I can tell you what it would mean to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-is-espionage-act-what-might-it-mean-donald-trump-2023-06-11/">anyone else</a>. They’d be put in a hole in the wall in <a href="https://www.bop.gov/locations/institutions/flm/">maximum security at Florence, Colorado</a>, and they would apply what’s called “<a href="https://www.justice.gov/jm/jm-9-24000-requests-special-confinement-conditions">Special Administrative Measures</a>.” Several of my terrorism clients have had those imposed on them. There’s a microphone outside their solitary confinement to monitor anything that they say, even between prisoners. Their mail is extremely limited. Their telephone contact is extremely limited. And that’s what would happen to anyone else similarly situated. </p>
<p><strong>Ferguson</strong>: Trump’s insistence on keeping talking about this creates a record that would justify isolation in maximum security on the basis that “We can’t trust this man not to continue to talk. We can’t trust him not to further share these secrets with people who may wish to do harm with them. The only way to avoid that is to put him in isolation in supermax where he doesn’t get to talk with people, except under these extremely closely monitored circumstances, certainly isn’t in a general population situation, gets to take a walk in a courtyard for one hour out of the 24 hours of the day, and the other 23 hours, leaving him mostly without human contact.”</p>
<p><strong>Is there a specific line he could cross that would force the government to seek to detain him prior to trial?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Durkin</strong>: I predict that if he keeps it up, and especially if he keeps suggesting or threatening violence, that the government will be put in a position where they don’t have a choice but to try to move to detain him. In the real world, that’s what would happen if it was anybody but him. Normally, you can’t be threatening this type of stuff without being put in detention. </p>
<p><strong>Ferguson</strong>: The smart play here would be for a judge to put him under a gag order that instructs him on what he may and may not say publicly. That’s already been done by <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/23/1177644144/trump-stormy-daniels-judge-new-york-hush-money-case-carroll">a New York judge in the other pending criminal case</a> against Trump. This would be a complicated exercise in balancing First Amendment rights with national security interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If you were Trump’s lawyer, what would you advise him to do now? Two national security specialists have some words for and about the former president after his federal indictment.Thomas A. Durkin, Distinguished Practitioner in Residence, Loyola University ChicagoJoseph Ferguson, Co-Director, National Security and Civil Rights Program, Loyola University ChicagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2074692023-06-09T21:49:05Z2023-06-09T21:49:05ZTrump indictment unsealed – a criminal law scholar explains what the charges mean, and what prosecutors will now need to prove<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531187/original/file-20230609-22779-bmu929.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=92%2C116%2C3999%2C2687&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Special counsel Jack Smith prepares to talk to reporters on June 9, 2023, after the indictment of former President Donald Trump. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/special-counsel-jack-smith-arrives-to-deliver-remarks-on-a-news-photo/1497248799?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Federal prosecutors on June 9, 2023, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23839628-trump-indictment">unsealed the indictment</a> that spells out the government’s case against former President Donald J. Trump, who is accused of violating national security laws and obstructing justice.</em></p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23839628-trump-indictment">49-page document</a> details how Trump kept classified government documents – including papers concerning U.S. nuclear capabilities – scattered in boxes across his home at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, long after his presidency ended in 2021 and the government tried to reclaim them.</em> </p>
<p><em>The indictment also shows that Trump <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/09/us/trump-indictment-documents-news?name=styln-trump-raid&region=TOP_BANNER&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=undefined">shared classified national defense information</a> with people without any security clearance, including someone on a political action committee.</em> </p>
<p><em>There are 38 felony charges against Trump – 31 of these counts relate to withholding national defense information. Five counts relate to concealing possession of classified documents, and two relate to giving false statements.</em></p>
<p><em>“My office will seek a speedy trial in this matter, consistent with the public interest and the rights of the accused,” said U.S. special prosecutor Jack Smith, who was appointed to oversee the investigation into Trump’s holding of the documents.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Conversation spoke to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DMWfDCgAAAAJ&hl=en">criminal law scholar Gabriel J. Chin</a> at the University of California, Davis School of Law about the most important takeaways from the unsealed indictment – and the new, open questions it presents about Trump’s alleged criminal activity.</em> </p>
<p><strong>What is the significance of the Justice Department’s unsealing the indictment on June 9, ahead of Trump’s turning himself in to authorities?</strong> </p>
<p>In the federal system, indictments are not automatically sealed, and so either the U.S. special counsel did not request it to be sealed or a judge refused to seal it. I suspect it is more likely the former. This is not a case in which there are active components of the investigation still going on. The case was ready to go and there is no difference, from the government’s point of view, in disclosing the indictment today or not, because the case is in the can. </p>
<p><strong>What stands out about the indictment?</strong></p>
<p>One thing that really stood out was the extensive personal involvement of Donald Trump himself in this alleged activity. Normally, when a big company gets sued, the CEO doesn’t drop everything and start going through documents. That’s what various other professionals are for. The details of Trump’s alleged direct personal involvement in this case were striking. </p>
<p>Second, one of the challenges here is that prosecutors are trying to hold Trump responsible for an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/13/us/politics/trump-classified-material-fbi.html">affidavit that a lawyer signed</a> that included untrue statements that Trump did not have the documents the government was asking him to return. And to make that case stick, prosecutors will really have to show that Trump himself had some involvement with that. </p>
<p>Count 32 in the indictment focuses on conspiracy and charges against Trump and his aide Walt Nauta, as well as “others known and unknown to the grand jury.” The U.S. attorney general is reserving the right to say other people were conspirators, and that will have consequences. Who are these other people? Is the government’s theory that Trump’s lawyers were innocent dupes and he fed them false information, or were they knowing participants in this criminality? No one else is named, but we are told – by that “others known and unknown” – that there definitely are others. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="White pages are shown with text, much of it blacked out." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482100/original/file-20220831-4764-hl5j8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Pages from the FBI’s redacted search warrant affidavit for Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate are shown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/in-this-photo-illustration-pages-are-viewed-from-the-governments-of-picture-id1418610718">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p><strong>Why did the indictment focus on the movement of the boxes that held classified information at Mar-a-Lago?</strong></p>
<p>The major reason is that all of the charges require some sort of intent. None of these charges would apply to someone who is trying to obey the law. Prosecutors have to show that what was going on here was an intentional, calculated act. </p>
<p>Another reason goes back to former <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/08/hillary-clintons-claim-that-zero-emails-were-marked-classified/">Secretary of State Hillary Clinton </a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-michael-pence-classified-documents-indiana-7b3bfba7cdd8d9d8fd828045ab3208e6">former Vice President Mike Pence</a> and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-classified-documents-investigation-shows-signs-wrapping-soon-rcna88313">President Joe Biden</a>, who have faced their own inquiries into possessing classified documents. </p>
<p>When former FBI Director James Comey said in 2016 <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/statement-by-fbi-director-james-b-comey-on-the-investigation-of-secretary-hillary-clinton2019s-use-of-a-personal-e-mail-system">that he wasn’t charging Clinton</a> for using her personal email for government work, there were considerations that led him to do that. People who make honest mistakes and cooperate in good faith don’t get charged because, first, it is difficult to make the case of wrongdoing. And there is some level of fairness to say that you don’t want to make public service a booby trap, where if you drop your guard for a second you could wind up in prison. </p>
<p>In this indictment, prosecutors are making an effort to tell the full story and explain why the actions detailed are wrongful. They appear to want to explain why the circumstances in this case justified charges and that this is not a “gotcha!” situation where someone has kept 200 cases of documents that have been carefully screened and one or two documents accidentally got in the mix. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531183/original/file-20230609-7870-qoeap5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in police uniforms stand outside a limestone building fronted by police barricades." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531183/original/file-20230609-7870-qoeap5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531183/original/file-20230609-7870-qoeap5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531183/original/file-20230609-7870-qoeap5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531183/original/file-20230609-7870-qoeap5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531183/original/file-20230609-7870-qoeap5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531183/original/file-20230609-7870-qoeap5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531183/original/file-20230609-7870-qoeap5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Police officers stand in front of the U.S. Department of Justice on June 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1497184494/photo/former-president-donald-trump-indicted-on-federal-charges-of-mishandling-classified-documents.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=r0m3pZAhLPpACZa_6y_E8raeBdNGqjQ44fu4DKbPR0E=">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p><strong>What’s the significance of the many felony counts facing Trump?</strong></p>
<p>Under the sentencing guidelines, which are usually followed, conviction on all counts could likely lead to a relatively short sentence or to no incarceration at all. However, it is important to note that in theory, Trump could be sentenced to the maximum on each count. The sentence on all counts could be made to run consecutively, which would lead to a sentence in the neighborhood of 400 years. I do not think that would ever happen, but it does underscore the power of the judge in sentencing a case like this.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207469/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel J. Chin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are 38 felony charges against former President Donald Trump, and while it’s unlikely, he could potentially be sentenced to serve 400 years if found guilty on all of them.Gabriel J. Chin, Edward L. Barrett Jr. Chair & Martin Luther King Jr. Professor of Law, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073732023-06-09T15:44:39Z2023-06-09T15:44:39ZTrump charged under Espionage Act – which covers a lot more crimes than just spying<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531151/original/file-20230609-15-kmec9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C11%2C7912%2C5147&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump was on the campaign trail in early June 2023, as an investigation continued that led to his indictment on federal charges.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-us-president-and-2024-presidential-hopeful-donald-news-photo/1258360358">Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former President Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/09/indictment-document-trump-classified-documents-pdf/">indictment by a federal grand jury</a> in Miami includes <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/06/09/trump-charges-classified-documents/">31 counts of violating</a> a part of the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/part-I/chapter-37">Espionage Act of 1917</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/free-speech-wasnt-so-free-103-years-ago-when-seditious-and-unpatriotic-speech-was-criminalized-in-the-us-160835">The Espionage Act</a> has historically been employed most often by law-and-order conservatives. But the biggest uptick in its use <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-america-donald-trump-ap-top-news-elections-barack-obama-9d9a76067d5b47e5a290dc9832369c92">occurred during the Obama administration</a>, which used it as the hammer of choice for national security leakers and whistleblowers. Regardless of whom it is used to prosecute, it unfailingly prompts consternation and outrage. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.luc.edu/law/faculty/facultyandadministrationprofiles/ferguson-joseph.shtml">We are</a> both <a href="https://www.luc.edu/law/faculty/facultyandadministrationprofiles/durkin-thomas.shtml">attorneys who specialize in</a> and teach national security law. While navigating the sound and fury over the Trump indictment, here are a few things to note about the Espionage Act.</p>
<h2>Espionage Act seldom pertains to espionage</h2>
<p>When you hear “espionage,” you may think spies and international intrigue. One portion of the act – <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/794">18 U.S.C. section 794</a> – does relate to spying for foreign governments, for which the maximum sentence is life imprisonment. </p>
<p>That aspect of the law is best exemplified by the convictions of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/30/951334047/jonathan-pollard-cold-war-spy-who-spent-30-years-in-u-s-prison-arrives-in-israel">Jonathan Pollard in 1987</a>, for spying for and providing top-secret classified information to Israel; <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/aldrich-ames">former Central Intelligence Agency officer Aldrich Ames in 1994</a>, for being a double agent for the Russian KGB; and, in 2002, former <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/robert-hanssen">FBI agent Robert Hanssen, who was caught selling U.S. secrets</a> to the Soviet Union and Russia over a span of more than 20 years. All three received life sentences. </p>
<p>But spy cases are rare. More typically, as in the Trump investigation, the act applies to the unauthorized gathering, possessing or transmitting of <a href="https://www.justice.gov/archives/jm/criminal-resource-manual-2057-synopses-key-national-defense-and-national-security-provisions">certain sensitive government information</a>. </p>
<p>Transmitting can mean moving materials from an authorized to an unauthorized location – many types of sensitive government information must be maintained in secure facilities. It can also apply to refusing a government demand for a document’s return. Trump’s charges reportedly include an allegation of “unauthorized retention of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/08/us/politics/trump-indictment-charges.html">national security documents</a>,” which can include both possessing the documents and refusing to return them to the government. All of these prohibited activities fall under the separate and more commonly applied section of the act – <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793">18 U.S.C. section 793</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479037/original/file-20220814-50256-2fy6vt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a military uniform is escorted onto a vehicle by a man in a dark shirt and khakis." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479037/original/file-20220814-50256-2fy6vt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479037/original/file-20220814-50256-2fy6vt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479037/original/file-20220814-50256-2fy6vt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479037/original/file-20220814-50256-2fy6vt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479037/original/file-20220814-50256-2fy6vt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479037/original/file-20220814-50256-2fy6vt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479037/original/file-20220814-50256-2fy6vt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Chelsea Manning, in uniform, after being sentenced on Aug. 21, 2013, to 35 years in prison after being found guilty of several counts under the Espionage Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/army-private-first-class-bradley-manning-is-escorted-by-news-photo/177149744?adppopup=true">Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A violation does not require an intention to aid a foreign power</h2>
<p>Willful unauthorized possession of information that, if obtained by a foreign government, might harm U.S. interests is generally enough to trigger a possible sentence of 10 years.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/14/us/politics/trump-documents-explanations.html">Current claims by Trump supporters</a> of the seemingly innocuous nature of the conduct at issue – simply possessing sensitive government documents – miss the point. The driver of the Department of Justice’s concern under Section 793 is the sensitive content and the connection to national defense information, known as “NDI.” </p>
<p>One of the most famous Espionage Act cases, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/us/politics/assange-indictment.html">known as “Wikileaks</a>,” in which Julian Assange was indicted for obtaining and publishing secret military and diplomatic documents in 2010, is not about leaks to help foreign governments. It concerned the unauthorized soliciting, obtaining, possessing and publishing of sensitive information that might be of help to a foreign nation if disclosed. </p>
<p>Two recent senior Democratic administration officials – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-people-sandyberger-obituary/former-u-s-national-security-adviser-sandy-berger-dies-idUSKBN0TL1OL20151203">Sandy Berger</a>, national security adviser during the Clinton administration, and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/David-Petraeus">David Petraeus</a>, CIA director under during the Obama administration – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-david-petraeus-avoided-felony-charges-and-possible-prison-time/2016/01/25/d77628dc-bfab-11e5-83d4-42e3bceea902_story.html">each pleaded</a> guilty to misdemeanors <a href="https://www.justice.gov/archive/opa/pr/2005/April/05_crm_155.htm">under the threat</a> of Espionage Act prosecution. </p>
<p>Berger took home a classified document – <a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/aug/9/national-archives-documents-center-trump-raid-have/">in his sock</a> – at the end of his tenure. Petraeus <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/fbi-petraeus-shared-top-secret-info-with-reporters-224023">shared classified information</a> with an unauthorized person for reasons having nothing to do with a foreign government. </p>
<h2>The act is not just about classified information</h2>
<p>Some of the documents the FBI sought and found in the Trump search <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/12/1117277865/read-the-full-warrant-documents-from-fbi-search-of-trumps-mar-a-lago-home">were designated</a> “top secret” or “top secret-sensitive compartmented information.” </p>
<p>Both classifications tip far to the serious end of the sensitivity spectrum. </p>
<p><a href="https://handbook.tts.gsa.gov/general-information-and-resources/business-and-ops-policies/top-secret/">Top secret-sensitive compartmented information</a> is reserved for information that would truly be damaging to the U.S. if it fell into foreign hands. </p>
<p>One theory floated by <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/08/12/trump-says-mar-a-lago-documents-declassified-experts-disagree/10310614002/?gnt-cfr=1">Trump defenders</a> is that by simply handling the materials as president, Trump could have effectively declassified them. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/14/us/politics/trump-classified-documents.html">It actually doesn’t work</a> that way – presidential declassification requires an override of <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/executive-order-classified-national-security-information">Executive Order 13526</a>, must be in writing, and must have occurred while Trump was still president – not after. If they had been declassified, they should have been marked as such.</p>
<p>And even assuming the documents were declassified, which does not appear to be the case, Trump is still in the criminal soup. The Espionage Act applies to all <a href="https://www.dodig.mil/Portals/48/Documents/Programs/Whistleblower/2010_1206_CRS_Criminal_Prohibitions_Defense_Information.pdf?ver=2017-04-27-105018-560">national defense information, or NDI</a>, of which classified materials are only a portion. This kind of information <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-d018-d933-a3e9-d7b9120b0000">includes a vast</a> array of sensitive information including military, energy, scientific, technological, infrastructure and national disaster risks. By law and regulation, NDI materials may not be publicly released and must be handled as sensitive.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A number of court documents, with the one on top saying prominently 'Search and seizure warrant' in bold type and all capital letters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A judge unsealed a search warrant that shows that the FBI is investigating Donald Trump for a possible violation of the Espionage Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXTrumpFBI/101838a380e34baeb9395b5ccc3ae49d/photo?Query=Trump%20warrant&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=201&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Jon Elswick</a></span>
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<h2>The public can’t judge a case based on classified information</h2>
<p>Cases involving classified information or NDI are nearly impossible to referee from the cheap seats. </p>
<p>None of us will get to see the documents at issue, nor should we. Why? </p>
<p>Because they are classified. </p>
<p>Even if we did, we would not be able to make an informed judgment of their significance because what they relate to is likely itself classified – we’d be making judgments in a void. </p>
<p>And even if a judge in an Espionage Act case had access to all the information needed to evaluate the nature and risks of the materials, it wouldn’t matter. The fact that documents are classified or otherwise regulated as sensitive defense information is all that matters.</p>
<p>Historically, <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/encyclopedia/case/43/espionage-act">Espionage Act cases</a> have been occasionally political and almost always politicized. <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1045/espionage-act-of-1917">Enacted at the beginning</a> of U.S. involvement in World War I in 1917, the act was largely designed to make interference with the draft illegal and prevent Americans from supporting the enemy. </p>
<p>But it was immediately used to target immigrants, labor organizers and left-leaning radicals. It was a tool of Cold War <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/activities/handout-b-liberty-and-security-civil-liberties-and-mccarthyism">anti-communist politicians</a> like Sen. Joe McCarthy in the 1940s and 1950s. The case of <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/rosenbergs-executed">Julius and Ethel Rosenberg</a>, executed for passing atomic secrets to the Soviet Union, is the most prominent prosecution of that era. </p>
<p>In the 1960s and 1970s, the act was used against peace activists, including Pentagon Paper whistleblower <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Daniel-Ellsberg">Daniel Ellsberg</a>. Since Sept. 11, 2001, officials have used the act against whistleblowers like <a href="https://www.whistleblowers.org/whistleblowers/edward-snowden/">Edward Snowden</a>. Because of this history, the act is often assailed for chilling First Amendment political speech and activities. </p>
<p>The Espionage Act is serious and politically loaded business. Its breadth, the potential grave national security risks involved and the lengthy potential prison term have long sparked political conflict. These cases are controversial and complicated in ways that counsel patience and caution before reaching conclusions.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/you-dont-have-to-be-a-spy-to-violate-the-espionage-act-and-other-crucial-facts-about-the-law-trump-may-have-broken-188708">article</a> originally published Aug. 15, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas A. Durkin was an expert witness on behalf of Julian Assange in his UK proceeding.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Ferguson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Spy cases are rare. More typically, as in the Trump indictment, the act applies to the unauthorized gathering, possessing or transmitting of certain sensitive government information.Joseph Ferguson, Co-Director, National Security and Civil Rights Program, Loyola University ChicagoThomas A. Durkin, Distinguished Practitioner in Residence, Loyola University ChicagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.