tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/parti-quebecois-9840/articlesParti Quebecois – The Conversation2024-03-17T12:53:27Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213942024-03-17T12:53:27Z2024-03-17T12:53:27ZWhat does Québec want? Politicians should heed what voters have repeatedly told them<p>Questions about what Québec wants have shaped Canadian politics <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/katherine-tsetsos-the-meech-lake-accord-is-not-history-it-is-simply-prologue">for decades</a>.</p>
<p>It’s now been 30 years since <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/jacques-parizeau">Jacques Parizeau</a> led the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/parti-quebecois">Parti Québécois</a> to a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1994/09/13/world/quebec-separatists-win-provincial-election-ending-liberal-party-s-9-year-reign.html">majority victory in 1994</a>. </p>
<p>The threat of political independence seems to have <a href="https://www.erudit.org/en/journals/rs/2022-v63-n1-2-rs07300/1092382ar/">diminished greatly</a> since the sovereignty referendum held a year after Parizeau’s election, in 1995. It’s been a decade since the PQ held power after <a href="https://apnews.com/article/06d51f08d7224109a21878675300b2a3">being defeated</a> <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/parti-liberal-du-quebec">by the Liberals</a> in 2014.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, Québec’s political leaders are displaying a <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/october-2020/25-ans-apres-le-referendum-le-nationalisme-quebecois-repris-par-la-caq/">renewed nationalism</a> via constitutional demands for <a href="https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/806861/legault-cede-coderre-titre-capitaine-canada">more autonomy</a> in the absence of substantial changes to <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/federalism">Canadian federalism</a>. </p>
<p>As Canada mourns the <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/obituary-brian-mulroney-failed-twice-to-bring-quebec-into-canadian-constitution">recent death</a> of former prime minister <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/brian-mulroney">Brian Mulroney</a>, the architect of the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/intergovernmental-affairs/services/federation/1987-constitutional-accord.html">1987 Meech Lake Accord</a>, it’s helpful to reflect on 60 years of constitutional politics and propose a new way forward for Québec politicians.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brian-mulroney-should-be-recognized-for-increasing-the-impact-of-the-francophonie-225426">Brian Mulroney should be recognized for increasing the impact of the Francophonie</a>
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<h2>Québec voters favour moderate approach</h2>
<p>Promoters of Québec independence often argue that <a href="https://www.groupenotabene.com/publication/all%C3%A9geances-et-d%C3%A9pendances">Québecers are chronically ambivalent about their political future</a>, <a href="https://editionsfides.com/products/ce-peuple-qui-ne-fut-jamais-souverain">preventing a decisive vote in favour of separation</a>. But is this really true? What if, from 1980 to 1995 at least, Québecers actually knew what they wanted?</p>
<p>A cursory look at opinion polls and electoral results from the past 60 years reveals a strong trend towards moderation in terms of the constitutional preferences of Québec. The data shows that even during the <a href="https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/590251/referendum-de-1995-la-question-qui-faisait-question">highest peaks of support for Québec sovereignty</a>, voters have invariably favoured <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02722011.2011.594517">a less extreme approach to sovereignty</a>. </p>
<p>They’ve always indicated a preference for “sovereignty-association” or “sovereignty-partnership” over outright independence or separation.</p>
<p>Why not see this for the genuine and lasting preference that it could be? Too many “yes” and “no” supporters have chosen to interpret this data as a sign that Québecers are indecisive about their future. But the consistent moderation embraced by the majority of Québecers could instead be perceived as an enduring desire <a href="https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/808305/enfants-meech-retracent-parcours-troisieme-voie">for more autonomy within the Canadian federation without full-on independence</a>. </p>
<p>That preference has been consistently expressed for years, despite the focus on national unity favoured by federal politicians and the separatist ambitions of many elected representatives in Québec City.</p>
<p>How did the debate over Québec’s political future and constitutional status become caught in such a deadlock?</p>
<h2>Citizen involvement</h2>
<p>Firstly, all constitutional discussions held since <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/confederation">Confederation in 1867</a> right up to the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/meech-lake-accord">Meech Lake Accord</a> happened without the participation of regular citizens.</p>
<p>They were essentially the work of national political leaders. The PQ’s <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/rene-levesque">René Lévesque</a> was the first politician in Québec history to allow the province’s people to directly voice their opinion on the province’s future when he held the <a href="https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/servlet/BMEve/296">1980 referendum</a> on <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/quebec-referendum-1980">sovereignty-association</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/sovereignty-association">sovereignty-association</a> proposal was probably most in line with the popular will that would develop in Québec following the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/patriation-of-the-constitution">unilateral patriation of the Constitution in 1982</a>. And yet, it was doomed to failure at its very inception. </p>
<p>By making the <a href="https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/quebec/documents/49">mandate to negotiate with the federal government</a> the main component of the referendum — instead of independence itself — Lévesque involuntarily gave Prime Minister <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/pierre-elliott-trudeau">Pierre Trudeau</a> a free hand to pre-emptively refuse to engage in such talks.</p>
<p>The Meech Lake Accord, negotiated in 1987 and <a href="https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/servlet/BMEve/474">rejected three years later</a> without the participation of the Québec population, led in 1992 to a <a href="https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/servlet/BMEve/298">national referendum</a> on the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/the-charlottetown-accord">Charlottetown Accord</a>. That agreement proposed yet <a href="https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/quebec/evenements/3610">another constitutional renewal for Canada</a>, including concessions on some of the Québec government’s “traditional demands” and an enhanced recognition for Indigenous Peoples. </p>
<p>Citizens across Canada and <a href="https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/referendum-on-the-charlottetown-constitutional-accord/">in Québec</a> mostly voted “no” on these proposed constitutional changes, but for <a href="https://www.persee.fr/doc/rfsp_0035-2950_1996_num_46_5_395100">opposite reasons</a>. </p>
<p>While Québecers felt <a href="http://classiques.uqac.ca/contemporains/gagnon_alain_g/Objections_specialistes/Objections_specialistes.html">the accord didn’t give them enough</a> — even less than Meech — voters in the rest of the country found <a href="https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/once-again-quebec-more-equal-other-provinces">the proposed agreement was too generous to Québec</a>.</p>
<p>This led ultimately to the <a href="https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/servlet/BMEve/297">referendum</a> on <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/quebec-referendum-1995">sovereignty-partnership</a> in 1995, when <a href="https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/resultats-et-statistiques/referendum-sur-laccession-du-quebec-a-la-souverainete-de-1995/">Québecers narrowly voted against self-determination</a>. </p>
<p>Parizeau, the premier at the time and the official sovereigntist leader, had learned the <a href="https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/idees/82167/il-y-a-25-ans-le-referendum-quebecois-le-trait-d-union-fatal">lesson of 1980</a>. This time, he ensured that the <a href="https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/quebec/documents/50">declaration of Québec sovereignty would not be conditional</a> upon the federal government’s willingness to negotiate another constitutional arrangement. </p>
<p>By proposing a direct vote on political independence to Québecers, Parizeau wanted to prevent the Canadian government from delaying separation by refusing to negotiate.</p>
<h2>Imagining a different referendum question</h2>
<p>His <a href="https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/quebec/evenements/3703">two main allies</a>, the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/bloc-quebecois">Bloc Québécois</a>’s <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/lucien-bouchard">Lucien Bouchard</a> — also the leader of the federal Opposition — and the leader of a third provincial party, <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/action-democratique-du-quebec-adq">Mario Dumont of the Action démocratique du Québec party</a>, perhaps had a better reading of the mood of the Québec electorate. </p>
<p>They preferred a weaker referendum question focusing more on a partnership with Canada. Had Parizeau not forced Québecers to choose between outright secession or maintaining the status quo as the only alternatives, the results of 1995 might have been different. </p>
<p>Let’s imagine a scenario in which the referendum proposed to the voters two options: the “no” option, in favour of the status quo, and a “yes” option that demanded constitutional reform attached to a threat of secession should the Canadian state fail to abide by the popular will of Québecers.</p>
<p>By appealing directly to their desire for greater autonomy with independence only a last resort, the “yes” side might have won the referendum. </p>
<p>What’s more, a strong popular mandate for constitutional reform would have significantly enhanced Parizeau’s bargaining power with Canada as opposed to the much weaker “<a href="https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/resultats-et-statistiques/referendum-sur-le-projet-de-souverainete-association-pour-le-quebec-de-1980/">mandate to negotiate</a>” Lévesque sought in 1980, which made it much easier for Canada to strategically delay or refuse talks. </p>
<p>Believing he could seize a historic opportunity to achieve sovereignty in the strongest possible terms following the Meech Lake backlash, Parizeau favoured an <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/archives/article/1995/09/09/le-quebec-votera-en-octobre-sur-son-independance_3857618_1819218.html">unambiguous route</a> — and failed.</p>
<h2>Heeding citizens</h2>
<p>Since the 1960s, constitutional debates and negotiations have been hijacked from Québecers by political leaders.</p>
<p>These politicians focused on promoting and advancing political aims most citizens didn’t want, rather than offering something more attractive to them — a place in Canada with a certain form of sovereignty for Quebec.</p>
<p>During that period of political tumult, Québec voters never really had a chance to express themselves in terms of a constitutional arrangement that suited them. Instead, they found themselves only able to reject options that didn’t appeal to them.</p>
<p>As the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/pq-could-form-majority-government-if-election-held-now-poll">gains momentum</a> against <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/francois-legault">François Legault</a>’s <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/coalition-avenir-quebec-caq">Coalition Avenir Québec government</a>, the party’s leaders and activists would do well to <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/despite-pq-surge-quebecers-most-likely-to-think-canada-is-on-the-right-track-poll/wcm/549013d2-4d65-41d0-bc1d-87f471207cd3/amp/">acknowledge this</a> — and listen to the people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221394/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Berthelet receives funding from the Centre d'étude des mouvements sociaux (CEMS) and the École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) affiliated to the Centre national de recherche scientifique (CNRS). </span></em></p>Reflecting on 60 years of constitutional politics helps shed light on a new way forward for Québec politicians.Charles Berthelet, Ph.D. Candidate in Philosophy, Political Studies, and Sociology, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1928072022-10-19T19:13:10Z2022-10-19T19:13:10ZWhy Québec politicians must swear an oath to the King — even if they don’t want to<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490653/original/file-20221019-12170-mk4ufs.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C0%2C2955%2C2209&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leaves a post-election news conference in Boucherville, Que. on Oct. 4, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">LA PRESSE CANADIENNE/Graham Hughes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The leader of the Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, sparked <a href="https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/763073/serment-au-roi-serment-au-roi-je-demande-a-l-assemblee-nationale-de-ne-pas-sevir-dit-pspp">controversy</a> by stating that he will not swear an oath of allegiance to King Charles, as required by the <em>Constitution Act, 1867</em>, before taking his seat in the Québec National Assembly. The two other elected members of his party took the
same position.</p>
<p>Québec Solidaire followed, with the 11 elected members of their party also <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/second-quebec-opposition-party-plans-to-refuse-to-swear-loyalty-oath-to-king-charles-1.6116101">refusing to swear an oath</a> to the King. </p>
<p>In the wake of this controversy, a number of constitutional <a href="https://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/b9333c18-45ac-4fdf-a083-acd31d92582f__7C___0.html?utm_content=ulink&utm_source=lpp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=internal%20share&fbclid=IwAR0rx-5TxOzVTpOPuU3OxxgV_UhmytbXXgNB1RvAFWGCaVuA1funaoGuYcE">experts</a> made comments suggesting that it was possible to refuse taking the oath. They proposed various interpretations and solutions that would, in their view, enable the PQ leader to sit as a Member of the National Assembly (MNA) without swearing allegiance to the King. As a constitutional scholar, I do not share this view.</p>
<h2>An interpretation based on 155 years of practice</h2>
<p>The wording of <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/const/page-4.html">section 128 of the <em>Constitution Act, 1867</em></a>, is clear: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Every Member of a … Legislative Assembly of any Province shall before taking his Seat therein take and subscribe before the Lieutenant Governor of the Province … the Oath of Allegiance contained in the Fifth Schedule to this Act (“I (Member’s name) do swear, That I will be faithful and bear true Allegiance to (His) Majesty (King Charles)”).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As the Court of Appeal for Ontario recognized in 2014 in <a href="https://canlii.ca/t/g8kld"><em>McAteer v. Canada (AG)</em></a>, the oath of allegiance is “clearly constitutional.”</p>
<p>In this context, the verb “shall” imposes an obligation; it indicates that an action “must” be taken. In other words, a person cannot sit as a member of a legislature without first swearing the oath. This is a condition for assuming the position. This interpretation is based on 155 years of practice and precedents across the country.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/procedure/procedure-and-practice-3/ch_04_6-e.html">authorities on parliamentary law</a> are clear: since 1867, all members of legislative assemblies, regardless of their political loyalties, have at one point or another sworn the oath of allegiance. A member who refuses to do so cannot sit in the legislature or vote. That is the
consequence of refusing to swear the oath.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490192/original/file-20221017-7289-zx20v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490192/original/file-20221017-7289-zx20v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490192/original/file-20221017-7289-zx20v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490192/original/file-20221017-7289-zx20v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490192/original/file-20221017-7289-zx20v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490192/original/file-20221017-7289-zx20v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490192/original/file-20221017-7289-zx20v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">King Charles leaves Westminster Abbey after the funeral service for Queen Elizabeth, Sept. 19, 2022. A member of Parliament who refuses to take the oath of office cannot take his or her seat in the legislature and vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Martin Meissner, Pool)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Could the National Assembly ignore section 128?</h2>
<p>Some <a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premiere/emissions/sur-le-vif/episodes/660424/rattrapage-du-mercredi-12-octobre-2022/7">experts</a> remarked that St-Pierre Plamondon was duly elected by the voters of the riding of Camille-Laurin and that, in keeping with the principle of democracy, the National Assembly should let him sit without having to take the oath of allegiance.</p>
<p>Moreover, they said that such a decision by a legislative body regarding its <a href="https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/editoriaux/763993/monarchie-britannique-le-serment-de-trop">internal affairs</a> could not be challenged before the courts owing to the doctrine of parliamentary privilege.</p>
<p>Yet, for a legislative assembly to ignore the clear wording of section 128 would be contrary to two other fundamental principles: constitutionalism and the rule of law. These principles require state officials to follow the Constitution and the law. If the National Assembly had decided to ignore section 128, <a href="https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/764845/serment-au-roi-l-assemblee-nationale-pourrait-bloquer-l-entree-aux-elus-pequistes">which in the end it did not</a>, it would have acted unconstitutionally, although this decision could potentially have been sheltered from judicial review.</p>
<h2>The principle of democracy does not override the written Constitution</h2>
<p>In 1998, in the <a href="https://decisions.scc-csc.ca/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/1643/index.do"><em>Reference re Secession of Québec</em></a>, the Supreme Court of Canada pointed out that the principle of democracy must be reconciled with these two other principles. As a result, it concluded that Québec cannot unilaterally declare independence, even if a clear majority of Quebeckers, in response to a clear referendum question, voted to secede unilaterally.</p>
<p>Since the secession of a province would involve a major change to Canada’s Constitution, it could not occur without good-faith negotiations with the other members of the federation, consistent with the constitutional amendment process set out in <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/const/page-13.html">Part V of the <em>Constitution Act, 1982</em></a>.</p>
<p>This advisory opinion from the highest court therefore shows that the principle of democracy, as important as it is, does not give permission to disregard the written provisions of the Constitution.</p>
<h2>Could Québec amend section 128 unilaterally?</h2>
<p>Other <a href="https://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/b9333c18-45ac-4fdf-a083-acd31d92582f__7C___0.html?utm_content=ulink&utm_source=lpp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=internal%20share&fbclid=IwAR0rx-5TxOzVTpOPuU3OxxgV_UhmytbXXgNB1RvAFWGCaVuA1funaoGuYcE">experts</a> implied that the National Assembly could pass a law to amend section 128 or Schedule V of the <em>Constitution Act, 1867</em>, to abolish the oath of allegiance or change its wording to make it more acceptable to those who, like the PQ leader, do not wish to pledge allegiance to the King.</p>
<p>A duly adopted amendment to section 128 or Schedule V would be consistent with the principles of constitutionalism and the rule of law. Québec may be able to make such an amendment unilaterally under <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/const/page-13.html">section 45 of the <em>Constitution Act, 1982</em></a>, as it would apply only in a prospective manner to its own MNAs.</p>
<p>However, such an amendment could potentially still be subject to the stringent procedure provided by <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/const/page-13.html">section 41(a) of the <em>Constitution Act, 1982</em></a>. Under this provision, any change to “the office of the (King), the Governor General and the Lieutenant Governor of a province” requires the consent of the Senate, the House of Commons and the legislative assemblies of all the provinces. Since it is the duty of the Lieutenant Governor (or their designee) to administer the oath of allegiance to members of the legislature, abolishing the oath could affect their “office.” This action would also likely undermine the symbol the King represents in the Canadian constitutional order.</p>
<p>In any case, <a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1925302/parti-quebecois-assemblee-nationale-st-pierre-plamondon-serment-roi">contrary to the PQ leader’s suggestion</a>, the National Assembly could not simply adopt a motion exempting its members from the obligation to swear an oath to the King in order to escape the requirements of the <em>Constitution Act, 1867</em>.</p>
<h2>An oath to the King is an oath to our system of government</h2>
<p>It is important to remember that King Charles, in his role as King of Canada — a different role from that of King of the United Kingdom — <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2008/lop-bdp/bp/bp241-1e.pdf">personifies the Canadian state</a>. Furthermore, because the Canadian Crown is divisible, the monarch also personifies the Québec state.</p>
<p>An oath to the King is not an oath to the person who wears the crown at a given time; rather, it is an oath to an institution that symbolizes our system of government, a democratic constitutional monarchy. An oath to the King is therefore an oath to our system of government and homeland, not an oath to a foreign monarch.</p>
<p>In the same vein, the Court of Appeal for Ontario ruled in <em>McAteer</em> that an individual cannot, for reasons of conscience and personal belief, refuse to swear the oath of allegiance required by <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-29/page-5.html">section 24 of the <em>Citizenship Act</em></a> to become a Canadian citizen. It would make little sense that an elected official seeking to become part of the state could be exempted from this requirement, especially since it is imposed by the Constitution, the king of all legal rules and norms.</p>
<p>Of course, some individuals, such as St-Pierre Plamondon, oppose the monarchical aspect of our country, which many feel is anachronistic. Canada may one day renounce the monarchy and become a republic, as several other Western democracies have done. However, until then, the principles of constitutionalism and the rule of law require elected officials to uphold the Constitution — Canada’s supreme law — and the system of democratic constitutional monarchy it establishes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192807/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yan Campagnolo ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>An oath to the King is not an oath to the person who wears the crown. It is an oath to an institution that symbolizes our system of government, a democratic constitutional monarchy.Yan Campagnolo, Professor of Constitutional Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1902072022-09-08T21:57:27Z2022-09-08T21:57:27ZÉric Duhaime and the Conservative Party of Québec’s contradictory stance on nationalism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483565/original/file-20220908-9395-pdgu6b.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2991%2C2151&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conservative Party of Québec leader Éric Duhaime speaks at the unveiling of his campaign platform in Drummondville on Aug. 14, 2022. Quebecers will go to the polls on Oct. 3. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Canadian Press/Graham Hughes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The current Québec election campaign is an opportune moment to measure the political divisions brought about by the sovereignty question. It also provides an opportunity to see how Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ) is attempting to position itself on this issue.</p>
<p>Between 1976 and 2018, Québec elections were structured by the division between federalists and sovereignists. This division was reflected in the alternating in power of the Québec Liberal Party and the Parti Québécois. When the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) party took power in 2018, it muddied the waters of this persistent division.</p>
<p>What role will Québec’s Conservative Party play in the election on Oct. 3? And where does it stand on the political spectrum of the right? As a professor in the department of sociology at the University of Québec in Montréal, my current research focuses on nationalism and populism in Canada, Québec and Germany.</p>
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<strong>
À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/convoi-des-camionneurs-aux-origines-dun-mouvement-en-pleine-derive-176833">Convoi des camionneurs : aux origines d’un mouvement en pleine dérive</a>
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<h2>Nationalism without a quest for statehood</h2>
<p>If the national question no longer creates the same division and no longer puts the same two political parties in the forefront of Québec politics, the last four years have shown that it is too early to declare an end to nationalist dynamics in Québec politics. </p>
<p>Some, like Duhaime, believe that the divide between sovereignists and federalists has given way to one between the left and the right. My co-author and I do not share this view. There is not one nationalist movement in Québec, but rather several movements that do not all share the same objectives. They can sometimes be contradictory. </p>
<p>These dynamics will certainly shape this election campaign. With the decline of the sovereignist option, the type of nationalism oriented toward statehood that is historically associated with the Parti Québécois, as well as with Québec Solidaire, is on the decline among the electorate. Although <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-premier-confirms-another-sovereigntist-candidate-for-fall-election-1.5933718">many CAQ voters still identify themselves as sovereignists</a>, they do not vote for a political party that openly promotes this type of nationalism.</p>
<p>The strength of the CAQ’s nationalist mobilization strategy is that it brings economic, republican, autonomous and populist nationalists together under one umbrella. The party is quite adept at seizing opportunities to win the loyalty of these different currents by playing on a number of legal and symbolic issues, but without arousing the fears often associated with the referendum option and the sovereignist horizon.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Premier François Legault speaks at the microphone, accompanied by a man and a woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481354/original/file-20220826-16-4hffco.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481354/original/file-20220826-16-4hffco.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481354/original/file-20220826-16-4hffco.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481354/original/file-20220826-16-4hffco.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481354/original/file-20220826-16-4hffco.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481354/original/file-20220826-16-4hffco.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481354/original/file-20220826-16-4hffco.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Québec Premier François Legault, surrounded by CAQ candidates, speaks to the press in Laval on Aug. 12. The strength of the CAQ’s nationalist mobilization strategy is that it reaches out to a cross-section of economic, republican, autonomist and populist nationalists.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Canadian Press/Peter McCabe</span></span>
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<p>The CAQ has been willing to provoke conflict with the federal Liberal government. This strategy has been relatively successful so far, with the exception of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/federal-election-trudeau-legault-1.6183682">François Legault’s support for the Conservative Party</a> in the last federal election.</p>
<p>Beyond that, the CAQ tries to create situations where it can win in one of two ways. Either it gets what it wants, or it denounces the interference of the federal government or the rest of Canada in Québec politics. One example is the <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/ottawa-will-join-supreme-court-legal-challenge-of-bill-21-lametti-says">ongoing challenge to Bill 96 (French language law)</a>. Many Québec voters, even if they are opposed to Bill 21 (on state secularism) or Bill 96, are equally opposed to the federal government interfering in legislation passed by Québec’s National Assembly.</p>
<p>If the Parti Québécois, Québec Solidaire and CAQ are sticking to familiar ground when it comes to the nationalist question, it remains to be seen where the PCQ and its new leader Duhaime will position themselves.</p>
<h2>Where does the PCQ stand in Québec’s political landscape?</h2>
<p>Duhaime’s party <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/quebecs-provincial-conservative-party-surges-as-protest-vote-against-provinces-heavy-handed-government">was galvanized by opposition to health measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic</a>. Its libertarian and convoluted position on the vaccination issue allowed the party to gain support via a protest vote. </p>
<p>It has also built a loyal base that often flirts with conspiracy theories <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-report-finds-people-increasingly-distrust-media-avoid-news-out-of/">in a context of strong distrust toward the media in Québec</a>. Early in the campaign, a Conservative candidate was once again forced to explain himself <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/08/25/did-a-conservative-leadership-hopeful-compare-covid-19-vaccines-to-nazi-atrocities-leslyn-lewis-rejects-cowardly-accusation.html">after associating the government’s treatment of non-vaccinated people with that of Jews “at one time”</a>.</p>
<p>Some members of the Conservative team – <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/quebec-s-conservative-party-surges-in-the-polls-as-some-of-its-candidates-spread-conspiracy-theories-1.6532486">up to 30 per cent of candidates according to a CBC survey</a> – have spread misinformation about vaccines and other treatments related to COVID-19. <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2053168021993979">Research</a> shows a correlation between opposition to health measures, voting for populist right-wing parties and conspiracy thinking.</p>
<p>In a political climate in Québec <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/opinion/columnists/allison-hanes-threats-to-politicians-are-a-threat-to-democracy">where threats against politicians of all stripes have never been higher</a>, many point out that Duhaime is playing a dangerous game by adopting the anti-establishment, friend-enemy rhetoric of radical right-wing insurrectionist movements, <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/liberals-rizqy-accuses-conservative-leader-duhaime-of-channelling-hate">only to timidly call his activists to order later</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man and a woman embrace, in a crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481353/original/file-20220826-6184-zxgvqy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481353/original/file-20220826-6184-zxgvqy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481353/original/file-20220826-6184-zxgvqy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481353/original/file-20220826-6184-zxgvqy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481353/original/file-20220826-6184-zxgvqy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481353/original/file-20220826-6184-zxgvqy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481353/original/file-20220826-6184-zxgvqy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Conservative Party of Québec Leader Éric Duhaime with one of his controversial candidates, Anne Casabonne, during the unveiling of his election campaign platform in Drummondville on Aug. 14.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span>
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<em>
<strong>
À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ladhesion-aux-complots-et-aux-populismes-une-question-deducation-174929">L’adhésion aux complots et aux populismes, une question d’éducation ?</a>
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<p>The party is placing all the cards in its very right-wing hand on economic issues, occupying a void left by the CAQ’s centre-right politics. In a context where young voters are dealing with inflation, the carrot of a tax cut — also proposed by its Liberal and CAQ competitors — could pay off. With this tax cut and its proposal to suspend the provincial gas tax, the PCQ is trying to position itself as the party of tax relief.</p>
<p>In terms of socio-demographics, the party has significant appeal among <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/pandemic-weary-quebecers-boost-conservatives-popularity-poll-suggests">young voters</a>, particularly young men. Some <a href="https://angusreid.org/quebec-spotlight-bill-96/">polls</a> measured a disparity in voting intentions by gender with up to eight percentage points more among men. This gap has <a href="https://338canada.com/quebec/polls.htm">narrowed</a> recently. The PCQ now exceeds the Parti Québécois in voting intentions.</p>
<p>The PCQ’s strategy on the national question can be gleaned from two clear sources, the election platform and the program, and two grey sources, the leader’s public statements and the <a href="https://en-quebecproud.nationbuilder.com">Québec Proud platform</a>.</p>
<p>This platform includes the strategic and tactical repertoire that will be mobilized in the election campaign, what Duhaime calls <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/duhaime-conservative-party-quebec-1.6551168">priority issues</a>. These include privatizing health care and the exploitation of hydrocarbons.</p>
<h2>National populist and libertarian themes</h2>
<p>The election platform presented on Aug.t 14 is silent on nationalist issues. It includes no reference to secularism, immigration or protection of the French language. This is not, however, the case with the party platform, nor with Duhaime’s public statements.</p>
<p>After advocating for a decrease in immigration, <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/parti-quebecois-would-reduce-immigration-to-quebec-if-elected">Duhaime is now sticking to the 50,000-immigrant threshold proposed by the CAQ</a>. Speaking in French, he has repeatedly introduced the notion of “civilizational compatibility” as a principle that should structure immigration policy. In the vocabulary of the populist right, this notion of immigration is a dog whistle referring to the limitation of Muslim immigration. The program also aspires to a pro-natalist policy without detailing its content. The family, <a href="https://www.conservative.quebec/values">explains the electoral platform</a> (in French), is “the primary institution of our society and the foundation of our nation.”</p>
<p>These themes align the party’s semantics and program with the national-populist right, but give it a clear federalist tone. By <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/quebec-election-campaign-2022-live-updates-news-opinion-montreal-sovereignty">Duhaime’s own admission</a>, this program shares many points in common with the nationalism of the CAQ. It could therefore appeal to a part of the electorate that supported Legault in 2018. </p>
<p>Beyond general statements, the concrete positioning of the PCQ on language issues is less clear. The PCQ seeks to present itself both as a defender of the French language, and as representing libertarian positions that oppose <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/duhaime-would-repeal-bill-96-saying-anglos-shouldnt-trade-in-historic-rights">Québec’s language laws</a>. </p>
<p>The program claims to want to protect French, “the most important vector of national identity and of the unique character of the Québec people in Canada and in America.” But while seeking to defend an identity centred around language, family and defending civilization, Duhaime is trying to appeal to an <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/hostage-to-a-single-party-conservative-duhaime-courts-english-voters-promotes-bilingualism-1.6057354">English-speaking electorate</a> jaded by the Québec Liberal Party. On Tuesday, before an English-speaking audience in Montréal, <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/duhaime-would-repeal-bill-96-saying-anglos-shouldnt-trade-in-historic-rights">he said he was opposed to using the notwithstanding clause to protect Bill 96</a>.</p>
<p>These are difficult tensions to reconcile in Québec politics. It is hard to imagine how libertarians can commit to supporting Québec culture if they systematically oppose the institutional and cultural instruments that allow the state to subsidize, disseminate and promote that culture. So, even for federalists who support traditional Québec constitutional claims, Duhaime’s platform remains very vague. </p>
<p>This wide-ranging position could end up arousing the suspicion of both nationalists and federalists who are worried about the status of French in Québec and in the rest of Canada.</p>
<h2>Embarrassing support from the Alberta oil and gas industry</h2>
<p>Although ambiguities remain around identity issues, the PCQ is not hesitant when it comes to the question of exploiting of Québec’s energy resources, including natural gas. In this case, petro-populism complements nationalist populism.</p>
<p>Duhaime strongly supports the development of these resources, and his party has ties to <a href="https://pressprogress.ca/this-right-wing-quebec-media-website-has-mysterious-ties-with-albertas-oil-lobby/">pro-oil interest groups</a> in Western Canada. The Facebook page Québec Proud, the French-language counterpart of Canada Proud, <a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/recit-numerique/4207/quebec-fier-parti-conservateur-eric-duhaime">was recently described as a content factory for Duhaime’s formation</a>.</p>
<p>The page is a team effort between the oil and gas industry in the West and the PCQ, according to Radio-Canada. The group Québec Proud was recently funded by the <a href="https://canadastrongandfree.network">Canada Strong and Free network</a>. The <a href="https://www.modernmiraclenetwork.org">Modern Miracle Network</a>, an oil and gas advocacy organization, describes Québec Proud as a <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/10/19/news/little-known-colossus-behind-conservatives-anti-climate-agenda">fossil industry advocacy group</a>.</p>
<p>These endorsements could be dangerous for the PCQ. If the party appears to be a Québec branch of an Alberta-based party, it could drive away voters who had been attracted to the CAQ’s autonomist positions and economic nationalism.</p>
<p>In other words, it will be difficult to present the party as a ruler of its own economic policies if it is perceived as a lackey of Alberta interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190207/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Where do the Conservative Party of Québec and its leader, Éric Duhaime, a newcomer on the political scene, fit in?Frédérick Guillaume Dufour, Professeur en sociologie politique, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)François Tanguay, Doctorant, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1475542020-10-12T13:22:37Z2020-10-12T13:22:37ZOctober Crisis, 1970: Crackdown ignited by authorities’ fear of young people<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362019/original/file-20201006-16-1xgosm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1345%2C665&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Close to 3,000 Quebecers gathered at the Paul-Sauvé arena hours before the invocation of the War Measures Act would send Canadian troops onto the streets of the province and many people – some of them at the arena rally -- were arrested in subsequent raids.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Éditions du Septentrion, CC BY-NC-ND</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the years leading up to the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/october-crisis">October Crisis in Quebec in 1970</a>, young people in Western countries were engaged in a series of ruthless battles. Civil unrest had broken out in France in May 1968, and in the United States, demonstrations and riots against segregation and discrimination, as well as the U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War had gained ground. All of it occurred against a backdrop of political assassinations, major social upheavals and a rush to independence of former colonies. </p>
<p>Québec was no exception in those years. Demonstrations sometimes turned into riots, such as the <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/history-through-our-eyes/history-through-our-eyes-june-25-1968-trudeau-doesnt-flinch">St-Jean-Baptiste Day parade in 1968</a>. The actions of the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/flq-backgrounder">Front de libération du Québec</a>, a clandestine group commonly known as the FLQ, turned bloody in 1963.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360047/original/file-20200925-20-16u2bz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360047/original/file-20200925-20-16u2bz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360047/original/file-20200925-20-16u2bz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360047/original/file-20200925-20-16u2bz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360047/original/file-20200925-20-16u2bz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360047/original/file-20200925-20-16u2bz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360047/original/file-20200925-20-16u2bz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Éditions du Septentrion)</span></span>
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<p>Québec youth found themselves in turmoil in October 1970. “Indeed, it was young people, mainly students, who would be arrested as soon as the War Measures Act was implemented,” explains Éric Bédard, who has just released the second edition of his book devoted to the events of October 1970, <a href="https://www.septentrion.qc.ca/catalogue/chronique-d-une-insurrection-apprehendee-nouvelle-edition"><em>Chronique d'une insurrection appréhendée</em></a>.</p>
<p>Bédard is a historian, professor at the Université TÉLUQ distance learning institution in Montréal and the author of <a href="https://www.erudit.org/fr/revues/rs/2013-v54-n1-rs0543/1015214ar/"><em>L'Histoire du Québec pour les Nuls</em></a>. His new volume on the October Crisis includes a document that had, until now, remained unpublished: a list of people arrested in the Greater Montréal Area within hours of Pierre Elliott Trudeau’s federal government adoption of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-the-50th-anniversary-of-the-war-measures-act-we-dont-need-a-coronavirus-sequel-136918">War Measures Act</a> on Oct. 16, 1970. </p>
<p><em>The Conversation</em> spoke to professor Bédard about the October Crisis.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359824/original/file-20200924-20-cpn6wx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359824/original/file-20200924-20-cpn6wx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359824/original/file-20200924-20-cpn6wx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359824/original/file-20200924-20-cpn6wx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359824/original/file-20200924-20-cpn6wx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359824/original/file-20200924-20-cpn6wx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359824/original/file-20200924-20-cpn6wx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A Canadian Army soldier patrols a street in Montréal after the invocation of the War Measures Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo)</span></span>
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<p><strong><em>The Conversation</em></strong>: In your book, you analyze the political actions of young people who were enrolled at the Université de Montréal, the newly created Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), as well as Concordia University and McGill University. Who were they?</p>
<p><strong>Eric Bédard</strong>: First of all, there were many of them. They were part of the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/baby-boom">Baby Boom</a>. There were nearly 80,000 of them in universities in 1969 and they benefited from the democratization of higher education. </p>
<p>The most politicized were very attracted to revolutionary ideas and often saw violence as a necessary evil. Many of these young people dreamed of transforming institutions, liberal democracy and capitalism and equated the political awakening of Quebecers with that of people in the “Third World” fighting for their emancipation. </p>
<p>Others were more concerned about a revolution in morals, a radical transformation of viewpoints. They wanted to abolish the institutions inherited from the past, such as marriage, the church and traditional schools. It was the counter-culture, the psychedelic experience. </p>
<p>That’s the background. The FLQ was founded in 1963, one year after the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20689578">Évian Accords</a>, and its very name is clearly inspired by that of the Algerian revolutionaries: the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Liberation_Front_(Algeria)">FLN (Front de libération nationale</a>. In the United States, African Americans were struggling for their civil rights and young people were very vocal in their opposition to the Vietnam war.</p>
<p><strong><em>The Conversation</em></strong>: Were the student movements organized?</p>
<p><strong>Bédard</strong>: Very few. There were stormy debates between them. In 1964, the students founded the Union générale des étudiants du Québec (UGEQ). It would become increasingly politicized and would claim to be separatist. For them, it was not only a matter of defending their members’ interests, as unions do, but of changing society. </p>
<p>At McGill, in 1969, it went very far. After two or three referendums, students joined the UGEQ and some even supported the movement that would have turned McGill into a francophone university. Things were also going badly at Concordia (then Sir George Williams University), where Black students revolted against a professor deemed racist and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/the-sir-george-williams-affair-50-years-later-was-it-worth-it-1.5014518">vandalized the computer centre</a>. </p>
<p>This radicalization affected the student movement. In the late 1960s, UGEQ itself was considered too bourgeois and hierarchical, and was scuttled in favour of involvement in different forms of organizations, such as neighbourhood citizens’ committees. The most militant students preferred to associate with workers and labourers. We found ourselves without a large student association in 1970.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359675/original/file-20200923-17-68aar2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359675/original/file-20200923-17-68aar2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359675/original/file-20200923-17-68aar2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359675/original/file-20200923-17-68aar2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359675/original/file-20200923-17-68aar2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359675/original/file-20200923-17-68aar2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359675/original/file-20200923-17-68aar2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The lawyer for the Front de libération du Québec, Robert Lemieux, addresses students at l'Université de Montréal in 1970. A graduate of McGill University, Lemieux called on students to create a parallel power, that of the ‘Quebec people’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Éditions du Septentrion</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>The Conversation</em></strong>: Does the context in which the October 1970 kidnapping crisis took place, during all this turmoil, explain the reaction of authorities, in your view?</p>
<p><strong>Bédard</strong>: The authorities saw what was happening in the world, they followed the news. Two years earlier, France was paralyzed during the uprising of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/05/world/europe/france-may-1968-revolution.html">May 1968</a>, which began with a student strike. A few months earlier, in May 1970, the National Guard intervened at Ohio’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/04/kent-state-massacre-marked-start-of-americas-polarization">Kent State</a> University in a demonstration against the Vietnam war and four students were killed. It created an incredible backlash, which I would compare to the one surrounding the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/george-floyd-protests-timeline.html">killing of George Floyd</a> in the spring.</p>
<p>The authorities here had this in mind after the kidnapping of British diplomat <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/history-through-our-eyes/history-through-our-eyes-dec-7-1970-james-cross-waves-goodbye">James Cross</a> and more obviously after the kidnapping of Immigration, Labour and Manpower Minister <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/pierre-laporte">Pierre Laporte</a>. </p>
<p><em>(Editor’s note: British Trade Commissioner James Cross was seized by the FLQ in North America’s first political kidnapping on Oct. 5, 1970. Laporte, a provincial cabinet minister, was snatched by another FLQ cell days later on Oct. 10.)</em> </p>
<p>In my readings, what comes up all the time is the fear of disorder stemming from young people, a young population that cannot be controlled. It surpasses fear of the separatists in my opinion, at least from the point of view of the forces of law and order. We must keep in mind that the student movement was very different from the trade union movement, which had several decades of history behind it, with its traditions, its structures, its assemblies, its elections and its recognized leaders. With young people, there are no interlocutors, unlike in 2012, during the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_student_protests">Maple Spring student protest</a>. No spokespersons, no structures.</p>
<p>Instead of calming the authorities, who could have concluded that this movement was disorganized and therefore harmless, it increased their fear of a militant overheating on campuses. Perceived as a kind of unpredictable beast, the youth inspired real fear in the authorities.</p>
<p>The testimony of the Québec government’s lawyer, Robert Demers, is very revealing. He recounted that on Oct. 15, 1970, a few hours before the War Measures Act was decreed, Premier Robert Bourassa met with the chiefs of the Montréal police and the Sûreté du Québec, the provincial force, at the Queen Elizabeth Hotel where the government had decamped. </p>
<p>The police were focused on only one thing: the student threat. They asked for special powers because, they said, if the situation spiralled out of control, they would be powerless to deal with it. They insisted they would not be able to arrest everyone. This is the thesis of my book. In order to understand the origins of the War Measures Act, one must understand this atmosphere of fear associated with the youth of the time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359676/original/file-20200923-18-1cv3b6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359676/original/file-20200923-18-1cv3b6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359676/original/file-20200923-18-1cv3b6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359676/original/file-20200923-18-1cv3b6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359676/original/file-20200923-18-1cv3b6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359676/original/file-20200923-18-1cv3b6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359676/original/file-20200923-18-1cv3b6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">At UQAM, several gatherings in support of the FLQ’s objectives were held during the fall of 1970, notably to denounce the War Measures Act. However, no student political force was able to mobilize young people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Éditions du Septentrion)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>The Conversation</em></strong>: And it was these young people who were the first to be arrested as soon as the War Measures Act was proclaimed?</p>
<p><strong>Bedard</strong>: Yes, they were essentially young people. Last year, I got my hands on a list from the then-deputy attorney general of Québec, Gilbert Morier, who would later become a judge. There are 263 names of people arrested in the Greater Montréal Area (there were 497 in all, according to John Turner, then-federal minister of justice). I have the date of birth for 220 of them: three-quarters are under 30 years old and 15 per cent are under 20 years old. They were essentially the ones who were targeted, at least those who were engaged in so-called subversive movements.</p>
<p>The War Measures Act created a shock wave among these young people. It was like pulling out a bazooka. But the death of Pierre Laporte had an even greater effect, in my opinion.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359829/original/file-20200924-15-1w7qu6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359829/original/file-20200924-15-1w7qu6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359829/original/file-20200924-15-1w7qu6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359829/original/file-20200924-15-1w7qu6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359829/original/file-20200924-15-1w7qu6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359829/original/file-20200924-15-1w7qu6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359829/original/file-20200924-15-1w7qu6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pierre Laporte’s widow and her two children follow the funeral procession on Oct. 20, 1970.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Canadian Press/Peter Bregg</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>The Conversation</em></strong>: Your research shows that these young people were not very dangerous…</p>
<p><strong>Bédard</strong>: Yes, indeed, but it’s easy to say that 50 years later and I insist on that because it’s too easy to give lessons. I understand the fog that enveloped the actors of the time and I even have a certain sympathy for them. I understand that they were under a lot of pressure. But a rational and cold analysis should have protected them from this panicky fear of youth, which was then scattered in a myriad of small groups, torn and divided, even within the FLQ. These young people were not equipped to make a revolution.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359828/original/file-20200924-15-2jti5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359828/original/file-20200924-15-2jti5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359828/original/file-20200924-15-2jti5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359828/original/file-20200924-15-2jti5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359828/original/file-20200924-15-2jti5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359828/original/file-20200924-15-2jti5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359828/original/file-20200924-15-2jti5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former prime minister Pierre Trudeau enters the House of Commons in Ottawa on October 16, 1970, to advise members of Parliament of his reasons for enacting the War Measures Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Canadian Press/Chuck Mitchell</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>The Conversation</em></strong>: Did Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau really believe in a massive youth revolt?</p>
<p><strong>Bédard</strong>: The archives suggest that he was hesitant because he knew the historical implications of invoking that odious liberty-destroying law. Hence the concern to obtain letters from Bourassa and the mayor of Montréal, Jean Drapeau, who said they feared an “apprehended insurrection.” This hesitation is contradictory, however, because on the other hand, since 1969, Pierre Elliott Trudeau had set up a crisis committee and a whole security apparatus to keep sovereigntist militants in check. He wanted to do intelligence work, to infiltrate the campuses.</p>
<p><strong><em>The Conversation</em></strong>: What impact did these events have on this generation?</p>
<p><strong>Bédard</strong>: It was like going to sleep after a hard day. No more partying, no more innocence and no more lyrical revolution. It all ended when Pierre Laporte’s body was found in the trunk of a car.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147554/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Éric Bédard is vice-president of the Lionel-Groulx Foundation, which promotes Québec history. </span></em></p>A new book argues that the War Measures Act was a response to the threat young people posed to authorities.Éric Bédard, Histoire Québec/Canada, Université TÉLUQ Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1095622019-01-09T22:32:26Z2019-01-09T22:32:26ZNew Brunswick’s linguistic divide is a microcosm of Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253055/original/file-20190109-32142-73k016.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs is seen in this September 2018 photo. Higgs won a minority government, and must confront both language tensions and economic hardship in his province.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The fever pitch of this year’s federal election conjecture and the obsession with the current political chaos in the United States may drown out the tale of government survival in one of Canada’s smallest provinces. </p>
<p>The past few months have been remarkable in New Brunswick politics, filled with foreshadowing of the year to come. On Nov. 30, the Progressive Conservative throne speech was passed by a vote of 25-23 and the government finally <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/higgs-confidence-vote-throne-speech-2018-election-1.4927686">won the confidence of the legislature</a> — 67 days after the hotly contested September election. </p>
<p>As with most minority governments in recent memory, the drama did not end on that somewhat anti-climactic confidence vote. What happens now has similarities to some of the most familiar plotlines in Canadian politics.</p>
<p>The 2018 New Brunswick election resulted in the first minority government in the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/blaine-higgs-minority-government-opinion-jamie-gillies-1.4890457">province since 1920</a>. Two minor parties with historic results hold the balance of power (the three Green and three People’s Alliance seats), and the party with the most seats (the PCs) lost the popular vote by five points to the second-place Liberals.</p>
<h2>New Brunswick a microcosm</h2>
<p>One of Canada’s first four provinces, New Brunswick has traditionally represented a microcosm of Confederation’s linguistic balancing act —and 2019 will find these efforts more politicized than ever. </p>
<p>Since 1960 and the first Acadian <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/louis-joseph-robichaud">Premier Louis Robichaud</a>, the balance has been fragile, often exasperated by the alignment of the two main political parties along linguistic and regional lines.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party is dominant in the mostly French-speaking, northern part of the province, while the Progressive Conservative Party relies on support in the mostly English, southern part of New Brunswick.</p>
<p>Canada’s national language divide has hit a relative lull with the collapse of the <a href="https://www.capebretonpost.com/news/regional/aging-parti-quebecois-seeks-to-rebuild-after-crushing-election-defeat-246764/">Parti Quebecois</a> and the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-bloc-quebecois-could-change-name-as-sovereigntist-party-looks-to/">Bloc Quebecois’</a> efforts to rebuild. But now New Brunswick’s language politics have vaulted ahead of the province’s perpetual focus on its teetering economic crisis to potentially become the central political issue in 2019.</p>
<p>Except for a Liberal victory in Saint John Harbour (city councillor Gerry Lowe won by 11 votes in a result that is <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/saint-john-harbour-election-court-ogden-vanbuskirk-1.4954928">currently before the courts</a>), the province is now split along linguistic Liberal and Conservative lines (notwithstanding the insurgent Green Party and People’s Alliance Party’s legislative presence). </p>
<p>For those outside New Brunswick, you are roughly in Liberal country on the Trans-Canada Highway until you pull off to tour the <a href="https://www.tripadvisor.ca/LocationPhotoDirectLink-g1093799-d1819713-i283245922-Covered_Bridge_Potato_Chip-Hartland_New_Brunswick.html">Covered Bridge Chip factory in Hartland</a> (former riding of long-serving Premier Richard Hatfield). Then you enter Tory ridings almost all the way to the Nova Scotia border except for another remarkable development from 2018 — multiple Green ridings, including <a href="https://www.sackvilletribunepost.com/news/local/updated-going-green-meet-the-new-memramcook-tantramar-mla-244327/">Memramcook-Tantramar</a> (home to Mount Allison University).</p>
<h2>Minority governing</h2>
<p>In this dramatically politically divided province, the challenge of governing in a minority situation has been compounded with political pitfalls and policy obstacles at every turn.</p>
<p>Heading into 2019 and the 50th anniversary of official bilingualism in the province, Premier Blaine Higgs faces two major decisions directly related to the language file: Hosting the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/2021-francophonie-games-explainer-2021-1.4946072">2021 Francophonie Games</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/flemming-paramedics-bilingual-hiring-ambulance-new-brunswick-1.4965600">the staffing of Ambulance NB</a>. </p>
<p>Staffing shortages at Ambulance NB, aggravated by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/atv-fatal-crash-haut-lameque-ambulance-delay-medavie-1.4884611">tragic accidents</a>, have been a problem for months and became a key campaign issue, one that galvanized the People’s Alliance and their supporters. At the heart of the controversy is a push for language requirements to take a back seat when it comes to filling paramedic jobs. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253056/original/file-20190109-32151-1rp8hjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253056/original/file-20190109-32151-1rp8hjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253056/original/file-20190109-32151-1rp8hjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253056/original/file-20190109-32151-1rp8hjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253056/original/file-20190109-32151-1rp8hjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253056/original/file-20190109-32151-1rp8hjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253056/original/file-20190109-32151-1rp8hjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kris Austin, head of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick, speaks to the media in October 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/James West</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Soon after being sworn in, the PC government loosened bilingual hiring requirements in areas of the province where one language was dominant. While briefly placating People’s Alliance leader Kris Austin, the decision almost cost Higgs his deputy premier and lone francophone cabinet minister <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/gauvin-questions-future-pcs-1.4956691">Robert Gauvin</a>.</p>
<p>News that the budget for the <a href="https://www.jeux.francophonie.org/">Francophonie Games</a> had ballooned to almost seven times what was initially proposed did not emerge until after the Higgs government was sworn in, and it was a holdover issue from the former Liberal government of Brian Gallant.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the ongoing issue puts the anglophone premier (and former member of the anti-official bilingualism Confederation of Regions Party) in the position of having to ponder <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4760394/francophonie-games-federal/">the cancellation of the Francophonie Games</a> to be hosted in Dieppe and Moncton. </p>
<h2>Austerity measures</h2>
<p>Higgs’ decision will be made in light of a pledge to tighten the province’s purse strings. The government began that process in December, decreasing the previous Liberal government’s capital <a href="https://huddle.today/higgs-government-shelves-planned-capital-projects-like-new-n-b-museum-in-saint-john/">budget by 30 per cent</a>. </p>
<p>As Higgs deals with the challenges of governing a bilingual province, he also faces the heat of creditors’ threats to lower New Brunswick’s credit rating. </p>
<p>And so as 2019 dawns, Higgs must address economic pressures in the midst of linguistic tensions. </p>
<p>The new premier should not only look to the lessons of his predecessors in the New Brunswick premier’s office, but also to prime ministerial decision-making of the past, when Canada’s leaders confronted myriad language crises amid economic turmoil. It’s not just a New Brunswick tradition, but a well-established Canadian one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109562/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>J.P. Lewis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Brunswick’s language politics have vaulted ahead of its teetering economic crisis to potentially become the central political issue in 2019.J.P. Lewis, Associate Professor, History and Politics, University of New BrunswickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/789572017-06-06T14:56:46Z2017-06-06T14:56:46ZNicola Sturgeon’s falling popularity could be disastrous for the Scottish independence cause<p>As the UK election reaches the final straight, the Scottish National Party has reason to be anxious. First were the predictions of a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40105177">Tory revival</a> north of the border, then came <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/what-does-labour-s-poll-revival-mean-for-scotland-1-4458233">signs of life</a> from Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. </p>
<p>Now SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon’s approval ratings have <a href="https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/labour-rallies-new-scottish-opinion-poll">sharply declined</a>. They have pitched into the red for the first time, hitting -4 compared to +14 as recently as last September. This has made the Scottish first minister the least popular among the party leaders in Scotland. As if to underline the point, she then <a href="https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/nicola-sturgeon-given-rough-ride-indyref2-question-time-special/">faced</a> a noticeably hostile audience in the BBC’s Question Time programme. </p>
<p>Widely viewed as an asset until recently, not least in the UK election of 2015 when the SNP <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland">swept the board</a> in Scotland, how worried should party strategists be about this change in Sturgeon’s fortunes? How is it likely to affect the party at the election and the prospects for holding a second independence referendum in the next few years?</p>
<h2>Indyref blues</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-is-playing-great-politics-with-indyref2-but-victory-still-long-way-off-74784">constitutional debate</a> in Scotland is undoubtedly partly to blame for Sturgeon’s drop in popularity – much though she would deny it. Indeed, this was perhaps to be expected when Scottish independence divides the country virtually in two. </p>
<p>Alex Salmond, Sturgeon’s predecessor, saw his approval ratings <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/119490/can-alex-salmond-and-snp-survive-scottish-independence-vote">decline</a> in the run-up to the first <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">independence referendum</a> in 2014. This was mainly about voters who were against independence viewing him more unfavourably. In both cases, the messenger is being viewed by their message to some extent. </p>
<p>Sturgeon had the advantage of becoming leader after that first referendum. She gained the support of voters supportive of independence, but because she did not threaten another referendum at that stage, her disapproval ratings among unionists started low. This did not change during the 2015 UK election, when she performed well in the UK-wide TV leaders’ debate. She convincingly portrayed the SNP as progressive, anti-austerity and standing up for Scotland – demanding greater powers from Westminster. </p>
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<p>The mood around Sturgeon seems to have begun to shift after the EU referendum, in which a substantial proportion of SNP supporters <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/747938/Brexit-Scotland-independence-THIRD-SNP-supporters-voted-Brexit-Sturgeon-embarrassment">backed Brexit</a> contrary to party policy. She may have <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-back-in-play-after-brexit-shock-with-a-note-of-caution-61457">sounded statesmanlike</a> on television on the morning after the vote, but greater support for a second independence referendum on the back of the Brexit vote <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-be-fooled-by-sturgeon-well-see-no-indyref2-for-scotland-until-brexit-is-clearer-67026">did not materialise</a>. </p>
<p>Even after she formally <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-is-playing-great-politics-with-indyref2-but-victory-still-long-way-off-74784">demanded</a> a second referendum earlier this year, support for independence has at best <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls">flatlined</a> below victory territory. Even a substantial minority of Yes supporters <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/poll-blow-nicola-sturgeon-scottish-independence-support-drops/">disagree</a> with holding another referendum any time soon. This has made the SNP vulnerable to attacks from unionists, particularly Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson. </p>
<h2>The independence problem</h2>
<p>Does all this matter? No and yes. The SNP will be relieved to have seen that Davidson’s approval ratings are <a href="https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390009-stv-election-poll-snp-to-hold-50-seats-amid-tory-gains/">declining too</a>, down 26 points to +5. While Davidson’s anti-independence message resonates with unionists, Scotland’s future is also affecting her popularity: her disapproval ratings are increasing among the over 40% or so of voters who support independence. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the SNP have arguably failed to successfully link Davidson to Theresa May’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-theresa-may-an-unlucky-gambler-or-just-a-bad-one-78774">electoral horror show</a> in England. Sturgeon and her party are now pushing harder with messages about an anti-Tory campaign, but it feels somewhat belated. The party electoral machine does not appear to be functioning as well as it once did. </p>
<p>And Sturgeon’s difficulties are not all about independence. The SNP has been in power for ten years and is vulnerable to criticisms about devolved policy areas, as we saw on her latest <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/05/nicola-sturgeon-refuses-rule-third-independence-referendum-lost/">Question Time appearance</a>. And under Corbyn, Labour is now firmly positioned to the left of the SNP, along with the Greens. This means Sturgeon’s anti-austerity stance looks weaker than it used to. </p>
<p>Sturgeon has also failed to rule out a possible third referendum should unionism prevail a second time around. Again as we saw on Question Time, this has allowed her opponents to accuse her of adopting a “neverendum” strategy. </p>
<p>The neverendum term was originally coined in Quebec in the 1990s to attack nationalists claiming they wanted to keep holding referendums until they could get the right result. This helped to severely damage the cause. It is now 22 years since Quebec held its <a href="http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/quebec-referendum-1995/">second independence referendum</a>, and there is no prospect of a third anytime soon. </p>
<p>It is a near certainty that the SNP will emerge from the UK election with considerably more seats than any other party in Scotland – indeed the same poll that reported Sturgeon’s fall in popularity <a href="https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390009-stv-election-poll-snp-to-hold-50-seats-amid-tory-gains/">also predicted</a> that the SNP would win 50 out of Scotland’s 59 seats. </p>
<p>Yet Sturgeon’s waning popularity perhaps points to a much greater danger for her party: that rather like the Parti Québécois, the SNP has become so inextricably linked with independence that support for it rises or declines with the fortunes of the party.</p>
<p>It risks getting caught between a rock and a hard place, with a sizeable number of Scottish voters not wanting another referendum and independence supporters eventually becoming disillusioned by the lack of progress. If so, the chances of a second independence referendum may narrow further as we approach the next Scottish election in 2021. In this winner-takes-all game of constitutional politics, that is certainly a prospect that Westminster’s unionists will be counting on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78957/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William McDougall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Theresa May isn’t the only national leader having a queasy election.William McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/252412014-04-09T05:10:42Z2014-04-09T05:10:42ZBruising election defeat for PQ as appeal of separatism in Quebec fades to grey<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45881/original/kwvj5dt6-1396978936.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Not many Quebecers share this sentiment at present</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/quinnanya/3832079517/in/photolist-7hUqcU-6QCpJv">Quinn Dombrowski</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Welcome to the second part of Breaking Nations, a series of articles that examines independence movements across the globe ahead of the Scottish referendum in September. For this edition, Francois Gelineau reports on this week’s general election in Quebec.</em></p>
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<p>The Québec separatist movement suffered an almighty blow on Monday. After just 18 months of minority government, the Parti Québécois (PQ), the standard bearer of the movement, prematurely led Quebecers into an election. The <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/04/07/quebec_liberals_jump_to_early_lead_over_parti_qubcois.html">party lost almost half</a> of the seats it held in the legislature, losing the election as a result. </p>
<p>The separatist movement has been at the forefront of Québec politics ever since the 1970s. The province has held two referendums on independence, one in 1980 and the other in 1995. </p>
<p>The separatists lost both, <a href="http://www.canadahistory.com/sections/eras/moderncanada/1995_referendum.htm">the latter</a> by less than two percentage points. Since 1995, not unlike Scotland, support for Québec separation has oscillated between 35 and 40%. These numbers had not changed in the run-up to this week’s election.</p>
<h2>Whose idea was an early election?</h2>
<p>When the PQ government <a href="http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/03/05/graeme-hamilton-liberals-offer-alternative-to-victim-quebec-as-pq-call-election/">announced an early election</a> on March 5th, it was emboldened by favourable poll ratings for the administration. In so doing, it acted against the principles of the <a href="http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/future-quebec-elections-to-be-held-on-first-monday-in-october-1.1326248">fixed election bill</a> that it adopted in the first months of its short existence. </p>
<p>Yet during its 18-month tenure, the PQ Government prepared the way with an active legislative agenda. Among other things its bill proposals included improved government ethics, cleaner political party financing, and a controversial secular charter.</p>
<p>And on the eve of the campaign, the PQ had a clear lead in the polls. Many analysts were even suggesting the <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/markets-keep-a-cautious-eye-on-quebec/article17396737/">possibility of a majority government</a>. </p>
<p>The following 33 days were an unprecedented political roller coaster ride. Two weeks in, the question of Québec sovereignty began to enter the debate. Whether or not this was to blame, what followed was disastrous for the party.</p>
<h2>Vive le Canada!</h2>
<p>New public opinion surveys started to suggest a downward trend for the PQ. By the end of the campaign the <a href="http://www.plq.org/en">Liberal Party (PLQ)</a> had clearly taken pole position, <a href="http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/04/final-quebec-projection-liberal-victory.html">leaving the PQ almost 15 points behind</a>.</p>
<p>Most analysts agree that the 2014 election has been the most divisive and acrimonious in recent history. It has mainly revolved around personal attacks, not policy proposals. Along with changing patterns of voter preference and the increased numbers of political parties, this negative tone may well have contributed to the result. </p>
<p>The PLQ has undeniably regained the support of many Quebecers only 19 months after being brutally ejected from a 10-year stint in government.
The party will now have a clear majority in the National Assembly for the next four years. </p>
<p>But more importantly, the results represent a bad PQ defeat. The party finished second, only about two percentage points above the centre-right <a href="http://coalitionavenirquebec.org/?lang=en">Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ)</a>. Québec premier and PQ party leader Pauline Marois <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-votes-2014/pauline-marois-loses-seat-parti-qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9cois-loses-power-1.2600334">also lost her seat</a>, and stepped down from her party post immediately. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45884/original/pgnyy5nk-1396979272.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45884/original/pgnyy5nk-1396979272.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45884/original/pgnyy5nk-1396979272.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45884/original/pgnyy5nk-1396979272.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45884/original/pgnyy5nk-1396979272.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45884/original/pgnyy5nk-1396979272.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45884/original/pgnyy5nk-1396979272.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45884/original/pgnyy5nk-1396979272.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Pauline Marois in happier times.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/quinnanya/3832079517/in/photolist-7hUqcU-6QCpJv">Parti Quebecois</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>It is hard to say to what extent Québec separatism contributed to the PQ loss, but the consequences for the separatist movement and especially for the party are clearly detrimental. These results will force a period of introspection. </p>
<p>The party will need to revise its strategy on secularism. The tone of the debate has clearly provoked a growing sense of “us versus them” among Quebecers. The divide between those that feel they are part of “us” and those that associated with “them” <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/secular-charter-toxic-to-quebecs-economy-business-group-warns-pq/article16622278/">has been harmful</a>.</p>
<h2>Young Quebecers spurn separatism</h2>
<p>One major shift in public opinion is also worth mentioning. Québec separatism used to be especially popular among young and more educated voters, but <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/quebec-separatists-trounced-as-secession-support-wanes.html">no longer</a>. </p>
<p>Newer voters are seemingly more interested in other issues that were mostly absent from public debates during this electoral campaign. Education, the environment and intergenerational equity are good examples. </p>
<p>Recent survey data suggest that separatism is now most popular among voters aged 55 and over. This is not surprising in some ways, since those voters instigated the separatist movement in the 1970s. </p>
<p>Whether the Quebec sovereignty question is dead or alive is open to debate. One thing is clear however: the province’s politics are changing. The PQ clearly needs to adapt to the new reality if it wants to regain the lost ground.</p>
<p><strong>To read the other instalments of our Breaking Nations series, follow the links below:</strong></p>
<p>Part One: <a href="https://theconversation.com/catalonia-deadlocked-as-nationalists-plan-new-offensive-25101">Catalonia deadlocked as nationalists plan new offensive</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francois Gelineau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Welcome to the second part of Breaking Nations, a series of articles that examines independence movements across the globe ahead of the Scottish referendum in September. For this edition, Francois Gelineau…Francois Gelineau, Associate Professor, Political Science, Université Laval, Université LavalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.