tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/zero-carbon-54503/articlesZero carbon – The Conversation2022-09-22T23:59:14Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1907402022-09-22T23:59:14Z2022-09-22T23:59:14ZSmall communities could be buying, selling and saving money on electric power right now – here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486022/original/file-20220922-24-wlunst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=366%2C125%2C6570%2C3667&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Riccio da favola</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Globally, the electricity sector is shifting from large, centralised <a href="https://www.epa.gov/energy/centralized-generation-electricity-and-its-impacts-environment">grids powered by fossil fuels</a> to smaller and smarter <a href="https://www.ea.govt.nz/about-us/media-and-publications/market-commentary/projects/the-electricity-sector-is-on-the-cusp-of-transformation?start=15">renewable local networks</a>.</p>
<p>One area of strong interest is “<a href="https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/storage/what-time-of-use-rate-makes-sense-for-residential-energy-arbitrage/">energy arbitrage</a>”, which allows users to buy and store electricity when it is cheaper and sell or use it when the cost is high.</p>
<p>But Aotearoa New Zealand is <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/green-business/124788036/nz-solar-power-takeup-still-low-but-economics-are-changing-says-installer">slow to take this up</a> – even though it is a crucial part of the <a href="https://www.seanz.org.nz/unlocking_distributed_generation">transition to a zero-carbon future</a>. Why is this?</p>
<p>Small-grid technologies and infrastructure are still in the experimental phase, being tested for effectiveness and desirability of <a href="https://gridcognition.com/community-batteries-and-network-tariffs/">different set-ups, ownership models and commercial arrangements</a>. And <a href="https://verlume.world/technology/intelligent-energy-management/">intelligent energy-management systems</a> that can provide a prescient forecast of <a href="https://datacenterfrontier.com/market-dynamics-renewable-energy-and-rising-energy-costs/">market dynamics</a> are not used widely.</p>
<p>To better understand these dynamics, we’ve modelled a theoretical “<a href="https://microgridknowledge.com/microgrid-defined/">microgrid</a>” in a residential subdivision, <a href="https://totarabank.weebly.com/">Totarabank</a>, in the North Island of Aotearoa.</p>
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<img alt="Satellite image of the case study area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485019/original/file-20220916-14-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485019/original/file-20220916-14-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485019/original/file-20220916-14-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485019/original/file-20220916-14-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485019/original/file-20220916-14-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485019/original/file-20220916-14-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485019/original/file-20220916-14-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">This satellite image shows the case study area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth™ mapping service</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>We used the model to forecast the expected commercial returns from investing in microgrids and to unlock potential revenue streams from energy arbitrage.</p>
<h2>Smart scheduling of batteries</h2>
<p>Energy arbitrage requires battery storage and <a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/intelligent-control-the-key-to-grid-friendly-solar/">intelligent control</a> to make the most of a local renewable energy system’s generation. </p>
<p>This can be achieved by forecasting short-term future electricity consumption and linking this to the spot power price on the market. <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/grid/microgrid-controls.html">Sophisticated real-time controllers</a> then decide if the local system should store or sell to the market (or store and sell later).</p>
<p>Battery storage systems can vary in size, from <a href="https://bsgip.com/research/community-scale-batteries/">community-scale batteries</a> supplying a neighbourhood to batteries within a fleet of electric vehicles (EVs). The fundamental controlling processes required to achieve an optimal outcome are broadly the same, except that community batteries are stationary while EV batteries move around. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/good-news-theres-a-clean-energy-gold-rush-under-way-well-need-it-to-tackle-energy-price-turbulence-and-coals-exodus-188804">Good news – there's a clean energy gold rush under way. We'll need it to tackle energy price turbulence and coal's exodus</a>
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<p>Community batteries can store electricity purchased from the grid during off-peak periods and then discharge it during peak periods. Neighbourhoods with solar power can charge community batteries in the middle of the day when solar-generated electricity is abundant and discharge during the higher-priced evening peak.</p>
<p>EV batteries can be used similarly, using cheaper night rates or periods of surplus wind during the night to charge. The energy stored in EV batteries can then be discharged into local loads or sold back into the grid when the price is highest, creating an additional revenue stream.</p>
<h2>Modelling return on investment</h2>
<p>In our modelling, we assumed the primary reasons people will invest in clean-energy technologies are sustainability, energy independence and resilience. We believe energy arbitrage could be an enabler of capital-intensive microgrids, as opposed to an investment made on a purely commercial basis. </p>
<p>Specifically, we considered a grid-connected microgrid integrating solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbines. The system is also backed by a community battery and has a fleet of ten personal EVs to serve.</p>
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<img alt="A schematic showing the modelled microgrid." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485021/original/file-20220916-1085-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485021/original/file-20220916-1085-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485021/original/file-20220916-1085-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485021/original/file-20220916-1085-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485021/original/file-20220916-1085-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485021/original/file-20220916-1085-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485021/original/file-20220916-1085-ri8lo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The modelled microgrid includes wind and solar power, a community battery and a fleet of electric vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>We considered two scenarios: one with grid arbitrage revenues and one without. </p>
<p>Our results suggest revenues procured explicitly from energy arbitrage could reduce the total cost of the system by at least 12%. To put this into perspective, for a typical NZ$10 million town-wide microgrid investment, this means $1.2 million in savings.</p>
<p>Another interesting finding was that the length of time the batteries were able to sustain critical loads during <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/learn/energy-explained/energy-101/blackouts-vs-system-outages">unplanned grid outages</a> was greater by about 16 hours per year, compared to the case without intelligent control. This is a remarkable resilience advantage.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-want-to-be-part-of-that-movement-residents-embrace-renewable-energy-but-worry-how-their-towns-will-change-184743">'We want to be part of that movement': residents embrace renewable energy but worry how their towns will change</a>
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<p>So what does this kind of analysis mean for you? If you are part of a community interested in owning and operating a microgrid, you now have enough evidence to ask your developer to consider energy arbitrage so the community can participate in the electricity market to make a profit.</p>
<p>If you own an EV and are trying to get cheaper night rates, this is a heads-up on future offerings from electricity retailers to get your storage-on-wheels to work with the vehicle-to-grid technology.</p>
<p>On the whole, energy arbitrage is an excellent tool to provide support for renewable energy investment decisions and help firm up revenue forecasts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190740/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Brent receives funding from Victoria University of Wellington. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Soheil Mohseni does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A technique called ‘energy arbitrage’ allows owners of local ‘microgrids’ to make a profit by designing the network to buy cheap power, store it and sell it back at a higher price.Soheil Mohseni, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Sustainable Energy Systems, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonAlan Brent, Professor and Chair in Sustainable Energy Systems, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1699872021-10-25T13:52:03Z2021-10-25T13:52:03ZIf we want to build a just zero-carbon future, climate discussions need to be diversified now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426815/original/file-20211017-21-lf4teg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C3058%2C2046&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">City-level climate talks are often dominated by those who carry social privilege.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/15060615742">UNFCCC/Flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Governments across the world are facing increasing pressure to keep rising global temperatures below <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">1.5C</a> above pre-industrial levels: the threshold that scientists advise is necessary to prevent the most destabilising <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/">consequences</a> of climate change, including more frequent droughts, floods and wildfires.</p>
<p>The English city of Bristol’s ambitious <a href="https://www.bristolonecity.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/one-city-climate-strategy.pdf">One City Climate</a> strategy aims to make the city fully carbon neutral and climate resilient by 2030. This includes decarbonising the city’s buildings, energy and public transport systems, and businesses. </p>
<p>Bristol is also one of the first cities in the world to commit to achieving a transition to carbon neutrality that is “<a href="https://www.bristolonecity.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Bristol-One-City-Plan-2021-2050-1.pdf">fair and inclusive</a>”. However, exactly how the city aims to achieve this remains unclear.</p>
<p>Taking Bristol as a case study, we embarked upon a year-long research project to examine the role of six organisations from the public, private, and <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5c6c2e74e5274a72bc45240e/488_What_is_Civil_Society.pdf">civil society</a> sectors in climate change decision-making. In particular, we were interested in how these organisations interpreted the idea of a “<a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf">just</a>” climate transition. This usually means ensuring that the benefits and costs of taking climate action are distributed between everyone – from workers to government leaders – and not heaped unfairly on underprivileged groups.</p>
<p>Our research employed a mixture of expert interviews and over nine hours of observing meetings. We found that although people clearly stated their commitment to achieving a <a href="https://www.bristol.ac.uk/policybristol/policy-briefings/just-transition-climate/">just transition</a>, ideas about what this meant in practice varied greatly. One participant remarked that “you don’t know what justice or fairness looks like to somebody else unless you ask”. </p>
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<img alt="People in a meeting" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426814/original/file-20211017-38329-1vdvzvf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426814/original/file-20211017-38329-1vdvzvf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426814/original/file-20211017-38329-1vdvzvf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426814/original/file-20211017-38329-1vdvzvf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426814/original/file-20211017-38329-1vdvzvf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426814/original/file-20211017-38329-1vdvzvf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426814/original/file-20211017-38329-1vdvzvf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Diversity in climate talks needs improving to ensure a representative range of voices are heard.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/photos/meeting-team-workplace-group-1245776/">Free-Photos/Pixabay</a></span>
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<p>What also rapidly became clear was the importance of securing more <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096315000236">diverse participation</a> in climate decision-making. Our findings revealed that climate discussions were dominated by white men, who spoke around 64% of the time. White women took the floor 33% of the time, and visible ethnic minorities spoke just 3% of the time. In comparison, Bristol’s ethnic minority population is <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/bristol-population">16%</a>.</p>
<p>Many participants acknowledged the need to increase diversity in the climate space. However, it was pointed out by one participant that “the diversity within diversity is often overlooked”, leading to the misleading perception that views on climate among people from ethnic minority backgrounds were similar across the board.</p>
<p>If we are to achieve a successful <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-net-zero-future-depends-on-the-oceans-ability-to-absorb-carbon-154453">zero-carbon future</a>, the communities most affected by climate change should have a much greater say in how we do it. Groups including people with disabilities, working class people, youth, and older people – known as the “<a href="https://www.climatejust.org.uk/socially-vulnerable-groups-sensitive-climate-impacts">climate-vulnerable</a>” – should be prioritised when consulting on climate strategies.</p>
<h2>Public engagement</h2>
<p>Our research also revealed the need to make information about climate impacts and policy proposals more widely available to the public. The way in which this information is framed matters. It shouldn’t be pitched solely to “educate” individuals – which can come across as patronising – but instead as a catalyst for discussion, outlining opportunities for local action.</p>
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<img alt="A banner reading 'We demand that government create and be led by a Citizens Assembly for climate and ecological justice'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427004/original/file-20211018-38329-1il3j7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427004/original/file-20211018-38329-1il3j7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427004/original/file-20211018-38329-1il3j7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427004/original/file-20211018-38329-1il3j7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427004/original/file-20211018-38329-1il3j7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427004/original/file-20211018-38329-1il3j7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427004/original/file-20211018-38329-1il3j7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Environmental groups like Extinction Rebellion have called for the establishment of citizens’ assemblies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/matthrkac/51168410590">Flickr/Matthrkac</a></span>
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<p>Spreading this kind of information could be achieved by establishing <a href="https://bristol.citizenspace.com/bristol-citizens-assembly/">citizens’ sssemblies</a>. These bring together a sample of members of the public, who represent a range of backgrounds and identities, to debate and vote on key issues. These assemblies can offer important feedback to both local policymakers and community groups on their proposed climate plans.</p>
<p>Those who make decisions should also be held accountable through, for example, public forums and complaints systems. This ability to assess the outcome of leaders’ work is particularly important for members of climate-vulnerable groups. This is because their participation in decision-making and consultation processes themselves may be limited by <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/15/4178/pdf#:%7E:text=Seven%20types%20of%20barriers%20were,%3B%20and%20(vii)%20economic.">structural barriers</a> such as the accessibility of these processes, as well as time and financial constraints. </p>
<p>Looking ahead to the UN’s climate change conference <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a> in Glasgow, <a href="https://www.c40.org/">cities</a> have an opportunity to lead by example through establishing truly inclusive climate consultations. This way, we can ensure that the voices of marginalised and climate-vulnerable groups are heard and that no one is left behind in our transition to a zero-carbon future. </p>
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<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Alice Venn received funding from the Cabot Institute for the Environment in Bristol for the project on which this article is based.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Alix Dietzel received funding from the Cabot Institute for the Environment in Bristol for the project on which this article is based.</span></em></p>Research shows white male voices tend to dominate climate discussions - this must change if we are to halt environmental destruction.Alice Venn, Lecturer in Law, University of ExeterAlix Dietzel, Teaching Assistant in Global Politics and Ethics, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1486982020-10-29T13:15:20Z2020-10-29T13:15:20ZHealth leaders need to use their newfound fame to fight for greener healthcare<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365534/original/file-20201026-21-1m5c2t5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C187%2C2858%2C1940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/group-demonstrators-fight-climate-change-global-1301314369">DisobeyArt/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Health leaders have found themselves projected onto the public stage as never before. Professor Chris Whitty, the UK government’s chief medical adviser, and Sir Patrick Vallance, its chief scientific adviser, have occupied the front pages and dominated the airwaves for months. They have become household names, better known than most ministers.</p>
<p>Anthony Fauci, the veteran director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is better known today, at home and abroad, than at any time in the 36 years he has held the post. Anders Tegnell, a previously unknown Swedish physician, has found himself <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5cc92d45-fbdb-43b7-9c66-26501693a371">lifted onto the world stage</a> defending his country’s unique approach to the pandemic as its state epidemiologist.</p>
<p>Their newfound fame provides an opportunity. Few people are as <a href="https://wellcome.org/news/world-survey-reveals-people-trust-experts-want-know-more-about-science">trusted as health and scientific leaders</a>. As a doctor and surgeon myself, I know we are in a <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-11/trust-in-professions-veracity-index-2019-slides.pdf">unique position</a> to influence patients and staff. Now that we find ourselves at the centre of global efforts to tackle the virus, we need to extend our role to tackle the other great threat to our future – climate change.</p>
<h2>No longer someone else’s problem</h2>
<p>There was a time when, for many working in healthcare, the climate crisis seemed far away. Now its impact is being seen in hospital and clinic waiting rooms every day, with worsening <a href="https://www.karger.com/Article/Fulltext/398787">cardiovascular disease</a>, increased spread of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf">infectious disease</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0?shared-article-renderer">climate-induced migration</a> and multiple effects on <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960854-6/fulltext">mental health</a>, especially in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/10/overwhelming-and-terrifying-impact-of-climate-crisis-on-mental-health">young people</a>.</p>
<p>At next month’s virtual <a href="https://2020.wish.org.qa/">World Innovation Summit for Health (WISH)</a>, which I chair, a panel of international experts will argue that by making the issue of climate change clear through the lens of human health, we can achieve more for health and climate justice together than would be possible by working for either alone.</p>
<p>By 2050, Europe could see an <a href="https://easac.eu/fileadmin/PDF_s/reports_statements/Climate_Change_and_Health/EASAC_Report_No_38_Climate_Change_and_Health.pdf">additional 90,000 deaths</a> from heatwaves, and <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(18)30240-7/fulltext">more than a billion</a> people worldwide will be unable to work safely outdoors during the hottest month of the year. At the same time, climate change will have put some <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf">200 million additional people</a> at risk of malaria, and conditions will favour the spread of <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-disease-mosquitoes-zika-virus-yellow-fever-dengue-spread-a8809996.html">dengue, Zika and other diseases</a>.</p>
<p>The pandemic demonstrates why waiting for the worst to happen is not an option – because by then <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/05/too-little-too-late-too-flawed-bmj-uk-response-covid-19">it will be too late</a>. Our experience over the last six months has shown that health security can only be achieved by working together across professional, national and international boundaries.</p>
<p>But it has also shown how we can have a better future. While acknowledging the devastating health and financial consequences of the pandemic, the stimulus packages and recovery policies being developed around the world <a href="https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/themes/green-recovery">offer an opportunity</a> to accelerate the creation of low-carbon societies in place of our current struggling models of economy and care.</p>
<h2>Creating zero-carbon healthcare</h2>
<p>A first step is to reduce healthcare’s <a href="https://www.arup.com/-/media/arup/files/publications/h/health-cares-climate-footprint.pdf">4.4% share</a> of global emissions. We need “climate-smart” healthcare that simultaneously seeks to make health systems greener, more resilient and higher quality by minimising waste, building energy self-sufficiency and switching resources from curative to preventive care.</p>
<p>In 2020, the US healthcare company Kaiser Permanente, which has 12 million members, became the first such operator of its size to achieve <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kaiser-permanente-becomes-first-carbon-neutral-health-system-in-the-us-301130245.html">carbon neutral certification</a>. The achievement is all the more remarkable given that hospitals are the second most energy-intensive buildings in the US. </p>
<p>Kaiser has done it through increased use of wind and solar power, intelligent lighting, investment in carbon offset projects, and the building of new facilities that are energy and water efficient. The company has now turned its attention to reducing emissions across its entire supply chain. </p>
<p>The NHS has also <a href="https://www.sduhealth.org.uk/documents/Policy%20and%20strategy/20180912_Health_and_Social_Care_NRF_web.pdf">reduced emissions</a> by an impressive 18.5% over the last decade, at a time when clinical activity increased by 27.5%. It’s now aiming to <a href="https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/01/greener-nhs-campaign-to-tackle-climate-health-emergency/">become carbon neutral</a>. Last January, chief executive Simon Stevens <a href="https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/01/greener-nhs-campaign-to-tackle-climate-health-emergency/">committed</a> to setting a “practical, evidence-based and ambitious route map and date for the NHS to reach net zero”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An inhaler on a table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365254/original/file-20201023-16-1objnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365254/original/file-20201023-16-1objnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365254/original/file-20201023-16-1objnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365254/original/file-20201023-16-1objnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365254/original/file-20201023-16-1objnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365254/original/file-20201023-16-1objnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365254/original/file-20201023-16-1objnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Metered-dose inhalers account for nearly 4% of NHS greenhouse gas emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cartridge-blue-medicine-inhaler-on-white-519832123">Davizro Photography/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>A key part of this has been the <a href="https://www.england.nhs.uk/greenernhs/">“Greener NHS” campaign</a>, which called for ideas on reducing emissions, generating <a href="https://www.england.nhs.uk/greenernhs/a-net-zero-nhs/">nearly 600 entries</a> from across the UK. Ideas now being taken forward range from electrifying NHS vehicles to using AI to make energy use across NHS facilities more efficient, to reducing emissions from inhalers and anaesthetics.</p>
<p>As health leaders we have the means, the motive and the mission to protect people from the worst impacts of climate change. We can “be the change” by switching to the greenest sources of power, reducing waste, ensuring resilience plans are in place and requiring suppliers to do likewise. And we can “lead the change” by mobilising our workforce to speak up, <a href="https://www.england.nhs.uk/greenernhs/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2020/10/delivering-a-net-zero-national-health-service.pdf#page=65">develop innovations</a> for climate-smart healthcare, <a href="http://www.ukhealthalliance.org/">join coalitions</a> acting on climate change and by highlighting its positive health benefits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lord Darzi holds the Paul Hamlyn Chair of Surgery at Imperial College London and the co-director of the Institute of Global Health Innovation. He is a board member of NHS England and chairs the Accelerated Access Collaborative reporting to the Secretary of State for Health.
WISH is an initiative of the Qatar Foundation.</span></em></p>Health and scientific leaders mustn’t waste this opportunity to shape the future for the better.Ara Darzi, Director of the Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1104962019-01-29T19:12:07Z2019-01-29T19:12:07ZWhen the heat hits: how to make our homes comfortable without cranking up the aircon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255979/original/file-20190128-108351-1hlxj3x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lochiel Park in Adelaide was Australia’s first large-scale attempt to create homes that use near net zero energy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephen Berry</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Summer in Australia seems to bite harder each year. Adelaide set a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/24/australia-heatwave-adelaide-breaks-its-all-time-heat-record-hitting-466c">record maximum temperature for the nation’s capital cities of 46.6°C</a> last week and there have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-stubborn-high-pressure-system-behind-australias-record-heatwaves-110442">extreme heatwaves</a> around Australia. The challenge to remain at a comfortable temperature in our homes is unprecedented.</p>
<p>Early European design influence used shade and ventilation strategies. The wrap-around veranda and classical <a href="https://theconversation.com/sublime-design-the-queenslander-27225">Queenslander</a> are examples that respond to the harsh Australian summer. This design response was typically paired with behaviour like children playing under the lawn sprinkler, or sleeping under the veranda to catch the evening breeze.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-rising-air-con-use-makes-us-hot-and-bothered-20258">rise of air conditioning</a> has moved us away from climatically and culturally sensitive ways to deliver comfort during extremes. For many, the press of a button provides superior and controllable comfort. This has led to high energy and energy infrastructure costs, especially when used in peak heatwave periods. It also <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-two-decades-to-avoid-the-most-damaging-impacts-of-climate-change-104409">increases carbon dioxide emissions, which are driving climate change</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/buildings-produce-25-of-australias-emissions-what-will-it-take-to-make-them-green-and-wholl-pay-105652">Buildings produce 25% of Australia's emissions. What will it take to make them 'green' – and who'll pay?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Design for climate</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-practical-with-push-for-zero-carbon-homes-5301">Low-energy and zero-energy homes</a> can reduce energy demand and environmental impact. They can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/low-energy-homes-dont-just-save-money-they-improve-lives-81084">improve liveability</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/sustainable-housings-expensive-right-not-when-you-look-at-the-whole-equation-60056">affordability and the health of occupants</a>. </p>
<p>These homes represent a modern reinterpretation of design for climate, based on the science of energy and materials. Such homes are a marriage of passive solar design, building material characteristics and technologies to reduce energy use and provide energy on site.</p>
<p>In this context, recently published <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.12.008">research conducted in South Australia</a> asks: are we unlearning coping strategies used to actively manage our thermal comfort? We interviewed householders of the <a href="https://joshshouse.com.au/star-performers/lochiel-park-adelaide/">Lochiel Park</a> green village in Adelaide to explore individuals’ housing histories to understand the changing relationship between the occupant, the building and the resultant energy use.</p>
<p>Lochiel Park was Australia’s first large-scale attempt to create homes that use near net zero energy in a net zero-carbon precinct. The <a href="https://renewalsa.sa.gov.au/projects/lochiel-park/">homes</a> are rated a minimum 7.5 <a href="http://www.nathers.gov.au">NatHERS stars</a>. They have double glazing, ceiling fans, solar water heaters, solar PV, energy-efficient appliances and energy-feedback displays. All of these features were, and remain, well above the requirements of building regulations.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-practical-with-push-for-zero-carbon-homes-5301">Getting practical with push for zero-carbon homes</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/sustainable-housings-expensive-right-not-when-you-look-at-the-whole-equation-60056">Sustainable housing’s expensive, right? Not when you look at the whole equation</a></em></p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255980/original/file-20190129-108334-d039lo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255980/original/file-20190129-108334-d039lo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255980/original/file-20190129-108334-d039lo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255980/original/file-20190129-108334-d039lo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255980/original/file-20190129-108334-d039lo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255980/original/file-20190129-108334-d039lo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255980/original/file-20190129-108334-d039lo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255980/original/file-20190129-108334-d039lo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Solar PV and water heating are standard on Lochiel Park houses, but like many features of low-energy homes are not required by Australian building regulations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of South Australia</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The research revealed occupants had used a wide range of practices to adapt to extremes in their previous houses. They discussed strategies like sleeping downstairs, in well-vented hallways, or outside under the veranda where it cooled down more quickly at night. Typical behavioural responses included active management of homes like closing curtains and blinds to shut out the sun, fixing temporary shade-screens or opening the house to gully breezes each evening.</p>
<p>The introduction of the air conditioner changed buildings and lifestyles. Single-room air conditioners redefined strategies: instead of sleeping outdoors, residents might drag mattresses into the lounge room. No longer did the local swimming pool look as inviting. As one resident put it: “… I’m not going to go outside in the heat to get in the pool.”</p>
<p>External shading or heavy drapes were no longer seen as necessary. Venetian blinds and other lightweight window furnishings became popular. Active operation by opening and closing windows, doors and curtains became less important. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256043/original/file-20190129-42594-18oshpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256043/original/file-20190129-42594-18oshpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256043/original/file-20190129-42594-18oshpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256043/original/file-20190129-42594-18oshpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256043/original/file-20190129-42594-18oshpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256043/original/file-20190129-42594-18oshpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256043/original/file-20190129-42594-18oshpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256043/original/file-20190129-42594-18oshpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>Relearning almost-forgotten strategies</h2>
<p>New generations of families grew up in an environment where they did not need to learn those previously essential active coping strategies. The move to a purpose-built low-energy home, designed to include active participation by occupants, has reintroduced some of these almost-forgotten coping strategies. </p>
<p>However, they have been placed in the contemporary context of societal perceptions of public safety. For example, one householder noted:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>You’d sleep outside of a night. Do that now, you might not wake up in the morning.</p>
</blockquote>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-safe-is-australia-the-numbers-show-public-attacks-are-rare-and-on-the-decline-110276">How safe is Australia? The numbers show public attacks are rare and on the decline</a>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255732/original/file-20190127-108370-9o4d16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255732/original/file-20190127-108370-9o4d16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255732/original/file-20190127-108370-9o4d16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255732/original/file-20190127-108370-9o4d16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255732/original/file-20190127-108370-9o4d16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255732/original/file-20190127-108370-9o4d16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255732/original/file-20190127-108370-9o4d16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255732/original/file-20190127-108370-9o4d16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">New research on Lochiel Park looked at what households are doing to cope with heatwaves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephen Berry</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>For some, the homes held the promise of “perfect comfort” without the need for cooling. The research finds that moving to a “low-energy” home has reduced, rather than eliminated, their active involvement. </p>
<p>Data from monitoring temperature and energy use show that Lochiel Park homes perform significantly better than most other dwellings. The houses are only 7.5 stars out of a 10-star NatHERS scale, however, so their investment has not afforded occupants year-round “perfect comfort” without the need for adaptation or active heating or cooling.</p>
<p>Tracing the housing histories of residents has revealed an ongoing dynamic of coping with extremes and trying to create a comfortable indoor environment. Comfort has been transformed from being mostly an achievement of the householder to an outcome of technology and, more recently, to an attribute that occupants expect their building to provide.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen if and when net-zero-energy homes will replace the current housing stock. What is clear is that even in high-performance housing residents still have a role in creating a comfortable temperature and coping with extremes of climate. </p>
<p>A key concern is the high risk that “unlearning” traditional comfort practices increases our vulnerability and reduces adaptive capacity to heatwaves. As we saw last week with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-25/extreme-heat-for-victoria-melbourne-hottest-day-in-a-decade/10748330">rolling blackouts hitting more than 200,000 homes</a> in Victoria, relying on air-conditioning creates challenges for our energy networks during extreme weather. The impact on emissions makes this reliance doubly problematic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Trivess Moore has received funding from various organisations including the Australian Research Council, Victorian Government and various industry partners. The research presented in this article was funded by the Australian Technology Network of Universities.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Sherriff is Associate Director of the Sustainable Housing and Urban Studies Unit (SHUSU) at University of Salford. This piece of work was supported by internal University funding.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Berry receives funding from various government and industry organisations including the CRC for Low Carbon Living. The research presented in this article was supported by the Australian Technology Network of Universities.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aimee Ambrose does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Air conditioning changed both building design and people’s active management of home temperatures. A return to houses designed for our climate can keep us comfortable and cut energy use and emissions.Trivess Moore, Lecturer, RMIT UniversityAimee Ambrose, Reader in Energy Policy, Sheffield Hallam UniversityGraeme Sherriff, Research Fellow in Urban Studies, University of SalfordStephen Berry, Research fellow, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1096722019-01-15T16:03:13Z2019-01-15T16:03:13ZImmediate phase out of fossil fuels could keep warming below 1.5°C<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253869/original/file-20190115-152974-vjo0fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C214%2C5478%2C3443&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christian Mueller / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite some positive climate action, new fossil fuel infrastructure is still being built and deployed. Dozens of new coal power plants are currently <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants">planned or under construction</a>, for instance, while petrol car sales will nearly <a href="https://www.allianz.com/en/press/news/studies/170912-euler-hermes-auto-world-championship.html">hit 100m</a> in 2019.</p>
<p>But what if all that ceased tomorrow? It turns out that if we built no more fossil fuel infrastructure and instead replaced existing infrastructure at the end of its productive life with a zero carbon alternative we could limit peak temperature rise to 1.5°C – as long as we start now.</p>
<p>Colleagues and I recently analysed what would happen to global emissions if fossil fuel power plants, cars, ships, aircraft and industrial infrastructure were all phased out. Our results are published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07999-w">Nature Communications</a>. This may be a hypothetical scenario, given a full phase out is unlikely to happen any time soon, but calculating what would happen in such a scenario gives us a better idea of the challenge ahead. </p>
<p>In our optimistic scenario, the process of replacing all the fossil fuel infrastructure with zero carbon alternatives (or not replacing it at all) began from the end of 2018. Doing this we found that the chance of keeping global temperature rise to below 1.5°C was 64%.</p>
<p>Delaying a fossil phase out until 2030 would make this a lot less likely, even if the phase out rate was sped up.</p>
<h2>Four decades of committed warming</h2>
<p>A coal power plant is typically operated and emits carbon dioxide (CO₂) for about 40 years. So, every new coal plant built in the recent past or today carries a climate change commitment. For instance, Drax, the UK’s largest power plant, used to burn coal exclusively and has probably warmed the planet by a few ten-thousandths of a degree over its lifetime. That isn’t much by itself, but such warming all adds up. We call this the “committed warming” from fossil fuel infrastructure. Drax now predominately burns <a href="https://theconversation.com/british-power-stations-are-burning-wood-from-us-forests-to-meet-renewables-targets-54969">wood pellets</a>, and is one example of how fossil fuel infrastructure could be replaced.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253877/original/file-20190115-152965-mkcflc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253877/original/file-20190115-152965-mkcflc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253877/original/file-20190115-152965-mkcflc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253877/original/file-20190115-152965-mkcflc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253877/original/file-20190115-152965-mkcflc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253877/original/file-20190115-152965-mkcflc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253877/original/file-20190115-152965-mkcflc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253877/original/file-20190115-152965-mkcflc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Drax: from coal to relatively sustainable wood.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Coatesy / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our analysis produces a scenario that reduces CO₂ emissions to nearly zero over 40 years. This compares with the recent IPCC special report on 1.5°C, which concluded that reducing emissions to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/a/spm1_figure-final/">net zero over 35 years</a> was required to get even a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.</p>
<p>The additional, narrow window of five years to get to net zero can be explained by different approaches. Some of this difference is accounted for by the timing of emissions phase out. As every year of procrastination brings the date by which we’ll have to reach net zero emissions <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2077">forward by two years</a>, even delaying until after 2020 rather than 2018 means that a 40 year phase out would have to happen in 36 years to achieve the same outcome. We also used historical temperature observations to guide the future climate response to emissions. Our projection of additional warming for each additional tonne of CO₂ is a little lower than the IPCC’s best estimate, although well within the “likely” range. </p>
<p>Alongside power stations, cars, ships and planes, we also applied the “asset lifetime” assumption to meat cattle. Cows produce a lot of methane, so if we ate them all over the next three years without breeding any more, we could certainly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions considerably while having a gluttonous time doing so. Non-livestock emissions are more tricky and harder to mitigate – we still need to eat, and grow crops using fertilisers – but we assumed that we get more savvy at doing so, eventually reaching zero emissions by 2100. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253883/original/file-20190115-152989-1j7x5tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253883/original/file-20190115-152989-1j7x5tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253883/original/file-20190115-152989-1j7x5tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253883/original/file-20190115-152989-1j7x5tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253883/original/file-20190115-152989-1j7x5tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253883/original/file-20190115-152989-1j7x5tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253883/original/file-20190115-152989-1j7x5tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253883/original/file-20190115-152989-1j7x5tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gone in three years?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cameron Watson/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Limits to the study</h2>
<p>Our study also comes with a number of important caveats. For instance, we did not delve into whether coal power will be replaced with solar panels or wind turbines, and we weren’t concerned with the exact sort of electric vehicle that will replace the petrol car. What matters to us is that these replacements are zero carbon, or that fossil fuel infrastructure is not replaced at all. </p>
<p>In many cases, zero carbon alternatives do not exist or might be difficult to scale up (for example in aviation). We also assumed that expected lifetime of fossil fuel infrastructure would not increase and that the surviving infrastructure would not be used more intensively (no <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2011/feb/22/rebound-effect-climate-change">rebound effects</a>). Lifecycle effects are not included either: with our current high-carbon industry, manufacturing a wind turbine costs energy and creates emissions, even if the energy produced from it does not.</p>
<p>In the fossil phase out scenario, we project temperatures would peak at anywhere between 0.1°C and 0.8°C above today – this shows the level of uncertainty in how the climate will respond, mostly related to how much warming is <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL076079">masked by air pollution in the present day</a>. Because air pollution reflects sunlight and can brighten clouds, it reduces some of the warming we would otherwise experience. If fossil fuels are phased out, this air pollution will be removed, unmasking the warming. Importantly however, the CO₂ and fossil methane emissions would also reduce at the same time, meaning there would not be a sudden spike in warming from phasing out fossil fuels. </p>
<p>The good news is that the optimistic scenario we looked at in our research found that current global fossil fuel infrastructure is not yet at the point where it will definitely take us over 1.5°C. However, as every year’s delay makes staying below 1.5°C less and less likely, urgent action is still needed. </p>
<p>Indeed, building more of this infrastructure carries an economic cost. If more fossil fuels plants “lock in” more warming, then remedial action would involve premature retirement of these “stranded assets”, or costly negative emissions technologies to take carbon out of the air. We must do our best to avoid fossil fuel lock in and bring forward alternative technologies as quickly as possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our research suggests it’s not too late to avoid drastic climate change – if we act now.Chris Smith, Research Fellow in Physical Climate Change, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/962812018-06-03T20:22:53Z2018-06-03T20:22:53ZNew Zealand’s productivity commission charts course to low-emission future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221303/original/file-20180601-69497-1rmts16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">According to a recent report, New Zealand will need to increase renewable electricity generation, plant more trees and continue switching to electric transport more rapidly to achieve its zero carbon goal by 2050.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand has set itself a target of becoming carbon-neutral by 2050. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.productivity.govt.nz/inquiry-content/3254?stage=3">report</a> issued by the <a href="https://www.productivity.govt.nz/">New Zealand Productivity Commission</a> has found that this is an achievable goal, even under modest forecasts of technological progress and increases in carbon price. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-fresh-start-for-climate-change-mitigation-in-new-zealand-87245">A fresh start for climate change mitigation in New Zealand</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Rising emissions</h2>
<p>New Zealand already had a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 50% below 1990 levels by 2050. That target had been in place since 2002, but emissions continued to rise through the 2000s. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://motu.nz/our-work/environment-and-resources/emission-mitigation/emissions-trading/evolution-of-the-new-zealand-emissions-trading-scheme-linking/">emissions trading scheme</a>, which began operating in 2008, failed to stop the increase. A <a href="http://pureadvantage.org/news/2018/04/09/lets-talk-cars/">flood of imported cars</a> increased New Zealand’s vehicle fleet and its emissions by 20% in just the past four years. A “wall of timber”, expected after 2020 as existing plantations are harvested, would further greatly increase net emissions under current carbon accounting rules. </p>
<p>Agriculture is responsible for an unusually large proportion — just under 50% — of New Zealand’s emissions. These <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/state-of-our-atmosphere-and-climate/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory">emissions were rising</a> too, especially long-lived nitrous oxides released by effluent and synthetic fertilisers. </p>
<p>A key part of New Zealand’s plan to meet global obligations had always been international carbon trading. However, in the <a href="http://morganfoundation.org.nz/new-report-climate-cheats/">Ukraine hot air</a> scandal, low-integrity carbon credits were imported at rock-bottom prices. International trading was therefore suspended in 2015. </p>
<h2>Aiming for zero</h2>
<p>The Paris climate agreement made New Zealand’s “50 by 50” target — which the country wasn’t on track to meet — look distinctly weak. It has now become clear that <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106">only zero net emissions can stabilise temperatures</a>, at any level, in the long run. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-approach-to-emissions-trading-in-a-post-paris-climate-78746">A new approach to emissions trading in a post-Paris climate</a>
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<p>It was in this context that New Zealand’s previous government asked the Productivity Commission to examine the “opportunities and challenges of a transition to a lower net emissions economy”. A few months into their work, the government changed and the new climate change minister, the Greens’ <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/minister/hon-james-shaw">James Shaw</a>, reinforced the urgency of the inquiry by asking the commission to consider the possibility of a net zero target for 2050.</p>
<p>The resulting <a href="https://www.productivity.govt.nz/inquiry-content/3254?stage=3">500-page report</a>, now available in draft form, is a huge and comprehensive piece of work. From the very beginning, the commission knew what they were up against, writing that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…the shift from the old economy to a new, low-emissions, economy will be profound and widespread, transforming land use, the energy system, production methods and technology, regulatory frameworks and institutions, and business and political culture. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The impact of widespread consultation, evidence and research is clear throughout. Although it is only advice, the report is a valuable resource for all future work on emissions reduction. It joins a chorus of similar (but much less detailed) <a href="http://www.vivideconomics.com/publications/net-zero-in-new-zealand">studies</a> issued recently. </p>
<h2>Cost of carbon</h2>
<p>The report finds that the carbon price required to get to zero net emissions in 2050 is fairly modest. In one model, it rises from its present price of NZ$21/tonne to NZ$55 in 2030 and NZ$157 in 2050 — within the NZ$100-250 range of global <a href="https://www.productivity.govt.nz/sites/default/files/Modelling%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20lower%20net%20emissions%20New%20Zealand_Interim%20Results_Concept%2C%20Motu%2C%20Vivid.pdf">estimates</a> consistent with the goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2°C. In other words, New Zealand does not have an unusually difficult decarbonisation challenge.</p>
<p>Although the report covers all main aspects of society and economy, there are three big changes that stand out:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Transport must be electrified rapidly (in some models, nearly all light vehicles entering the fleet must be zero-emission by the early 2030s)</p></li>
<li><p>Huge numbers of trees – up to an extra 2.8 million hectares, tripling the current plantation estate – must be planted to absorb carbon dioxide. These trees have to go somewhere, probably on sheep and beef farms</p></li>
<li><p>A lot of new renewable electricity generation will be needed, nearly doubling the present capacity, which is already <a href="http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/sectors-industries/energy/energy-data-modelling/publications/new-zealand-energy-quarterly">85% renewable</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Emissions trading can work</h2>
<p>The meat of the report is the policies and institutions required to support and drive the transition. Key among them is a revised <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions/new-zealand-emissions-trading-scheme">emissions trading scheme</a>. So far the scheme has failed to reduce domestic emissions because the price of carbon was too low. This was driven mainly by low international prices, sector exemptions (including agriculture), and policy uncertainty which left businesses and investors unclear about future rules and prices.</p>
<p>The commission’s key recommended fixes include the adoption of a falling cap on emissions (to drive up prices and guarantee emissions reductions); a rising price cap (to prevent shocks to the economy and political resistance from emitters); and a rising price floor (to provide confidence to investors in low-emission technologies). Indeed, <a href="http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/state/legislation.html">California’s system</a> includes all of these elements and is currently on track to reduce emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. </p>
<p>Besides the emissions trading scheme, the report argues that every sector needs its own strategy. For example, on transport, it recommends an emissions standard - something <a href="https://www.theicct.org/publications/2017-global-update-LDV-GHG-FE-standards">most</a> other developed countries except <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/light-vehicle-emissions-standards-australia">Australia</a> currently have. Without this, New Zealand risks becoming a <a href="https://www.productivity.govt.nz/sites/default/files/sub-low-emissions-127-the-morgan-foundation-534Kb.pdf">dumping ground</a> for high-emission vehicles that manufacturers cannot sell elsewhere. They also recommend a <a href="http://www.waikato.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/278080/Electric-Vehicle-Policy-New-Zealand-in-a-Comparative-Context.pdf">“feebate” scheme</a>, in which vehicles entering the fleet either incur a fee (if they have above-average emissions) or receive a rebate. </p>
<h2>Risks and opportunities</h2>
<p>I see a few key risks. First, trade-exposed industries, such as agriculture and food and metal processing, need to get discounts on carbon prices to remain competitive. A future in which each global industry decarbonises in a coordinated way does not seem likely, but each industry in each country still needs an incentive to clean up. This aspect remains difficult to deal with. For example, the recommendation that agriculture should be fully phased into the ETS is far outside the political mainstream in New Zealand at the moment. </p>
<p>The falling cap on emissions is an absolutely vital component, but it remains a decision that could be subject to lobbying in the aftermath of some domestic or international crisis. </p>
<p>In none of the report’s scenarios do gross emissions fall by more than 43% by 2050. This is certainly achievable, and it is in line with what some countries are doing right now, but it means New Zealand is relying heavily on tree planting to get to net zero. This is not a long-term solution – eventually you run out of space to plant more trees.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, the idea for a Zero Carbon Act originated with a youth group, <a href="http://zerocarbonact.nz/">Generation Zero</a>. Their campaign has led fairly directly to this detailed road map for a zero carbon future. The next step, a <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/have-your-say-zero-carbon">public consultation about the Zero Carbon Act</a> itself, kicks off this month.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96281/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand has set itself a goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, and a recent report by the Productivity Commission lays out how it could hit that target.Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/949212018-04-13T02:38:08Z2018-04-13T02:38:08ZNew Zealand puts an end to new permits for exploration of deep-sea oil and gas reserves<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214489/original/file-20180412-549-1k5k00f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New Zealand's government will not grant any new permits for exploration of offshore oil and gas reserves.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New Zealand government’s <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/planning-future-no-new-offshore-oil-and-gas-exploration-permits">announcement</a> that it will not issue any new permits for offshore exploration for oil and gas deposits is exciting, and a step in the right direction. </p>
<p>We know that we <a href="https://theconversation.com/unburnable-carbon-why-we-need-to-leave-fossil-fuels-in-the-ground-40467">can’t afford to burn much more oil</a> if we want to meet the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/what-is-the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> target of keeping global temperature rise this century well below two degrees above pre-industrial levels. Almost all of the already known reserves must stay in the ground, and there is no room to go exploring for more. </p>
<p>Pursuing further reserves would only lead to stranded assets and would waste time and resources in the short term.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-new-zealand-should-not-explore-for-more-natural-gas-reserves-91544">Why New Zealand should not explore for more natural gas reserves</a>
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<h2>Moving away from fossil fuels</h2>
<p>New Zealand currently has 31 active permits for oil and gas exploration, and 22 of these are offshore. A program set up by the previous government <a href="https://www.nzpam.govt.nz/permits/petroleum/block-offer/">invites bids each year for new onshore and offshore exploration permits</a>. But this year it is <a href="https://www.nzpam.govt.nz/about/news/consultation-block-offer-2018-open/">restricted to the onshore Taranaki Basin</a>, on the west coast of the North Island.</p>
<p>Complementing the move to shut down the exploration of new deep-sea fossil fuel reserves, the government’s new <a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12025268">transport funding plan</a> aims to reduce demand for fossil fuels by putting emphasis on public transport, cycling and walking. </p>
<p>This gets away from the outdated mantra of more roads and more cars that we have seen over the past decade and will tackle the transport sector, which has seen very <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory-1990%E2%80%932016-snapshot">rapid growth in emissions since 1990</a>. This will help New Zealand onto a low-carbon pathway and promises a more people-focused future. </p>
<p>New Zealand is a small player in global emissions of greenhouse gases but our actions can carry <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/new-zealand-becomes-nuclear-free">symbolic weight on the world stage</a>. Given our present position of 80% renewable electricity and an abundance of solar, wind, wave and tidal energy, if any country can become zero-carbon, surely New Zealand can. It can only benefit New Zealand - socially, economically and politically - to lead in this crucial race to stabilise the climate. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-approach-to-emissions-trading-in-a-post-paris-climate-78746">A new approach to emissions trading in a post-Paris climate</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<h2>Rising emissions</h2>
<p>As the government announced its ban on new offshore exploration permits, the latest <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/state-of-our-atmosphere-and-climate/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory">greenhouse gas inventory</a> was also released, showing some good news. New Zealand’s gross emissions went down slightly from 2015 to 2016. </p>
<p>But gross emissions are up nearly 20% since 1990, and net emissions (actual emissions minus the “sinks” from forestry) are <a href="http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/snapshots-of-nz/nz-progress-indicators/home/environmental/greenhouse-gas-emissions.aspx">up 54% over that time</a>. The main factors that contributed to the increase were dairy intensification and increased transport and energy emissions. </p>
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<p>Even though <a href="https://emissionstracker.mfe.govt.nz/#NrAMBoEYF12TwCIByBTALo2wBM4eiQBs2AHEltEA">agriculture is still the largest source</a> of emissions overall, energy and transport are close behind. We have seen a near-doubling in carbon dioxide emissions from road transport over the past 27 years.</p>
<p>It is encouraging to see a decrease in emissions from the waste sector. Per head of population, New Zealanders throw away <a href="https://data.oecd.org/waste/municipal-waste.htm">significantly above the OECD average of rubbish</a>, a lot of which is green waste that decomposes and releases methane, another potent but short-lived greenhouse gas. </p>
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<p>While New Zealand emits a tiny fraction of the world’s greenhouse gases, on a per-capita basis we are <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory-1990%E2%80%932016-snapshot">sixth-highest among developed countries</a>. We have as much responsibility as any country to reduce our emissions. </p>
<p>Even though emissions have risen, we are set to meet our national target for 2020 (a 5% reduction on 1990 levels) because of “carry-over” credits from the first Kyoto reporting period from 2008 to 2012. But to live up to more stringent future targets, we need a lot more action than we’ve seen over the last decade. The government plans to <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/first-important-step-towards-zero-carbon-act">introduce zero-carbon legislation</a> that will commit New Zealand to reaching the goal of carbn neutrality by 2050. </p>
<p>This will require serious investment and commitment to renewable technologies, changes in the transport sector, changes to agriculture and land use, and ultimately changes in the way we all live our lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94921/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Renwick receives funding from the Marsden Fund and has received funding from the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment. </span></em></p>New Zealand has ruled out new permits for offshore oil and gas exploration as a step towards a transition to a carbon-neutral future.James Renwick, Professor, Physical Geography (climate science), Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.