tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/environment/articlesEnvironment + Energy – The Conversation2017-10-25T11:44:49Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/854112017-10-25T11:44:49Z2017-10-25T11:44:49ZWhen cities were Nature’s haven: a tale from Bangalore<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191341/original/file-20171023-1746-1irrbdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bangalore has a long lasting love history with nature.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Streets_of_Bangalore.jpg">Eirik Refsdal/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We tend to think that <a href="http://www.upworthy.com/cities-are-the-opposite-of-nature-right-heres-a-futuristic-twist-on-that">nature and cities</a> are polar opposites. Yet this is not true. As <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2016/07/can-nature-thrive-in-cities/">my research on Bangalore</a> or Bengaluru – India’s IT hub – shows, for centuries, the population of this region grew <em>because</em> of nature, not <em>despite</em> it. </p>
<p>In my book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Nature-City-Bengaluru-Present-Future/dp/0199465924/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&qid=1505483173&sr=8-5&keywords=nature+in+the+city">Nature in the City: Bengaluru in the Past, Present and Future</a>, I take a deep dive into the ecological history of an Indian city, going way back in the past to the 6th century CE. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/bangalore/blessings-and-curses-the-construction-of-lakes-in-bengaluru/article7339775.ece">Inscriptions on stone and copper plates</a> show that the starting point for a new village was often the creation of a tank, or lake, to collect rain water – essential and life-giving in this unfavourable low-rainfall environment.
These inscriptions provide fascinating insights into the close relationship that these early residents had with nature. They describe the landscape as consisting of the lakes, the surrounding irrigated and dry land, the “wells above”, and the “trees below”. This three-dimensional view of the landscape, consisting of two major resources, water (lake) and food (agriculture), nourished by nature below (in the form of wells) and above (in the form of trees) is a remarkably holistic conception of nature.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, in today’s urbanised India, we have lost all trace of this three-dimensional vision.</p>
<h2>Declining sources of water</h2>
<p>The central areas of Bangalore had 1960 open wells in 1885; today, there are <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12685-017-0199-9">fewer than 50</a>. Bangalore also lost many of its lakes, which were considered to be filthy breeding grounds for malaria, and converted to bus stands, malls, housing, and other built spaces. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187409/original/file-20170925-14625-emv6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187409/original/file-20170925-14625-emv6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187409/original/file-20170925-14625-emv6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187409/original/file-20170925-14625-emv6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187409/original/file-20170925-14625-emv6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187409/original/file-20170925-14625-emv6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187409/original/file-20170925-14625-emv6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sree Kanteerava stadium was built in 1997, where Sampangi lake used to be located before.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sree_kanteerava_stadium,Bangalore.jpg">Shakkeerpadathakayil/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The city’s central <a href="https://www.thecommonsjournal.org/articles/10.18352/ijc.616/print/">Sampangi lake</a>, which supplied water to many parts of Bangalore in the 19th century, was transformed into a sports stadium by the 20th century, leaving behind only a tiny pond for ceremonial religious purposes. As long as lakes and wells supplied water, essential for the activities of daily life, they were worshipped as sacred and protected as life-giving.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191342/original/file-20171023-1738-16uoxdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191342/original/file-20171023-1738-16uoxdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191342/original/file-20171023-1738-16uoxdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191342/original/file-20171023-1738-16uoxdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191342/original/file-20171023-1738-16uoxdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191342/original/file-20171023-1738-16uoxdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191342/original/file-20171023-1738-16uoxdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Furneaux, JH (1895) Glimpses of India. A grand photographic history of the Land of Antiquity, the vast Empire of the East. Historical Publishing Company. Philadelphia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangalore#/media/File:Bangalore_Cantonment.jpg">Furneaux, Wikmedia</a></span>
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<p>Rituals celebrating the overflowing of lakes during the monsoon by <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/bangalore/the-sacred-lakes-of-bengaluru/article7346811.ece">paying homage to the lake goddess</a> kept the importance of lakes in the forefront of people’s imaginations. But once piped water began to be provided in the 1890s, these water bodies began to decay. By the end of the 19th century, wells and lakes began to be polluted with garbage, sewage, and even corpses during times of epidemics and disease.</p>
<h2>Citizens nurturing nature</h2>
<p>What transformed this centuries-long, strong relationship between people and nature? When Bangalore shattered its local loop of dependence by importing water from outside, people forgot the importance of their local sources of water. </p>
<p>Yet, as our research has shown, <a href="http://www.sawasjournal.org/files/v5i32016/2(Volume%205,%20Issue%203,%20March%202016).pdf">Bangalore still needs water just as badly</a> for its resilience. The city has grown so large that piped water from distant rivers can no longer supply all its needs. </p>
<p>Thus resurgent citizen movements across Bangalore have begun to focus on <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol19/iss2/art67/">protecting and restoring lakes</a> in their neighbourhoods, which will also recharge the water below ground. In some low income settlements, where adequate water supply is a constant challenge, community wells, once ignored, are now being assiduously protected and maintained as well.</p>
<p>The same pattern – of an early, close relationship with nature, followed by a break, and later a resurgent interest in the connection – is also playing out when it comes to trees. Early residents did not only focus on water, but also “greened” this dusty, hot landscape of the dry Deccan plateau. <a href="https://scroll.in/article/828228/what-hyder-ali-and-tipu-sultan-had-to-do-with-bangalores-love-affair-with-trees">Successive rulers</a> from the 16th century onwards, and common citizens planted millions of trees over centuries. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187960/original/file-20170928-1483-1qziwkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187960/original/file-20170928-1483-1qziwkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187960/original/file-20170928-1483-1qziwkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187960/original/file-20170928-1483-1qziwkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187960/original/file-20170928-1483-1qziwkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187960/original/file-20170928-1483-1qziwkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187960/original/file-20170928-1483-1qziwkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of lakes in Bangalore increased between 1791 and 1888 then rapidly decreased after piped water was brought in.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sreerupa Sen</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Each settlement was greened with a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19463138.2016.1264404"><em>gundathope</em></a> – a woodlot commonly planted with fruiting trees, jackfruit, mango and tamarind – which provided shade, fruits, firewood for cooking, grazing material for cattle, and occasionally timber as well.</p>
<p>When one tree was chopped down, another was planted to ensure continuity. New areas of the city were assiduously greened by administrators, who planted trees, and residents, who watered and cared for them, benefiting from the services they provided. This practice of greening continued during the British colonial period of governance, and later into the 20th century, after Indian independence. Because of the cool climate of Bangalore – in part due to its location on a plateau, but also because of its lakes and trees, created, planted and nurtured by local residents and rulers over centuries – the city became a chosen location for the British army, and later as a science and industrial hub in south India.</p>
<p>It is no accident that Bangalore, once called India’s lake city and garden city, became the country’s IT capital.</p>
<h2>Soaring temperatures and rising air pollution</h2>
<p>By the late 20th century, this relationship had begun to fray. With rapid growth, roads and other built infrastructure gained importance in the minds of planners. As a consequence, trees were disregarded, and <a href="http://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/cover-story/bengaluru-will-lose-not-812-but-2244-trees-from-71-species/articleshow/56989480.cms">felled in their thousands</a> for development projects in Bangalore.</p>
<p>Inevitably, with more private vehicles on the road, and fewer trees, the city became hotter, and the air severely polluted. Citizens soon realised this connection. So did academics. Our research for instance demonstrated that trees cool the air by 3 to 5ºC, and reduce the temperature of the road surface by as much as 23ºC, as well as <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1618866713000289">significantly reducing air pollution</a>.</p>
<h2>Social media to the rescue</h2>
<p>Yet citizen movements did not fade. In the early 21st century, the nonagerian Honnamma Govindayya has become an epitome of struggles to protect Bangalore’s environment. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187803/original/file-20170927-24225-1ghqos1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187803/original/file-20170927-24225-1ghqos1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187803/original/file-20170927-24225-1ghqos1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187803/original/file-20170927-24225-1ghqos1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187803/original/file-20170927-24225-1ghqos1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187803/original/file-20170927-24225-1ghqos1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187803/original/file-20170927-24225-1ghqos1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187803/original/file-20170927-24225-1ghqos1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Honamma Govindayya.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Harini Nagendra</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>She fought against real estate developers who wanted to convert a local park that her children played in, <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/thehindu/mp/2002/04/04/stories/2002040400460100.htm">taking a case all the way to the Supreme Court of India</a>. She won and saved a tiny but very important patch of green from destruction. </p>
<p><a href="http://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/others/citizens-save-the-day/articleshow/59207590.cms">Mass citizen protests in recent years</a> have continued and gained significant victories for the city’s green cover, including the reversal of a controversial decision to build a steel flyover, which would have destroyed thousands of trees. </p>
<p>Today these movements are strongly supported by social media. In the flyover case, the twitter tag #steelflyoverbeda (“beda” meaning “no” in the local language, Kannada) went viral, attracting hundreds of followers.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Social media has provided an easier way for once isolated groups of people to connect and coordinate, and often to ratchet up public pressure on nature-blind administrators. Who knows how many would have supported Honamma Govindayya if she had a Twitter account then?</p>
<p>Understanding the history of nature reveals a very different picture from the preconceived idea that, at least in countries like India, where the pressures of development and growth are so large, nature and cities cannot coexist.</p>
<p>Today, this perspective on the ecological history of Bangalore can help city-dwellers worldwide understand why nature in the city is not just important for the metropolis’s past, but also essential for its resilient future.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Fz81-iunHu4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A history of resilience, Harini Nagendra.</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85411/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harini Nagendra receives funding from Azim Premji University for her research. In the past, she has also received research funding for this work from the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India; Stockholm Resilience Center; USAID PEER; and National Geographic Society. </span></em></p>The population of India’s IT hub, Bangalore, grew for centuries because of nature, not despite it – a lesson that could give hope for the future of our modern cities.Harini Nagendra, Professor of Sustainability, Azim Premji UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/820462017-10-12T19:18:06Z2017-10-12T19:18:06ZTackling climate change could bring North and South Korea closer and help stabilise the region<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186155/original/file-20170915-16277-ci9szo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">North Korea is no doubt watching closely as the region moves forward on energy cooperation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">House Committee on Foreign Affairs/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf">Paris Agreement, signed in 2015</a> requires every country to make pledges to <a href="http://www.unep.org/climatechange/resources/pledge-pipeline">tackle climate change</a>. North Korea is <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/Submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Democratic%20People's%20Republic%20of%20Korea/1/DPRK-INDC%20by%202030.pdf">no exception</a>.</p>
<p>Given that air pollution doesn’t recognise borders, there are already several emissions-reduction projects underway that will require cooperation between Asian nations.</p>
<p>To meet its obligations, South Korea has pledged to buy emissions credits on the international market, <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/southkorea.html">offsetting 11.3% of its business-as-usual emissions in 2030</a>. That is 96.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions – already more than North Korea’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2013 (<a href="http://cait2.wri.org/historical/Country%20GHG%20Emissions?indicator%5b%5d=Total%20GHG%20Emissions%20Excluding%20Land-Use%20Change%20and%20Forestry&indicator%5b%5d=Total%20GHG%20Emissions%20Including%20Land-Use%20Change%20and%20Forestry&year%5b%5d=2013&country%5b%5d=Korea%2C%20Dem.%20Rep.%20(North)&sortIdx=NaN&chartType=geo">78 million tonnes</a>). </p>
<p>Because North Korea has its own obligations now, foreign countries including South Korea can no longer earn carbon credits from their carbon-offsetting projects in the country.</p>
<p>But if South Korea provides technical assistance such as <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10784-016-9333-x">satellite monitoring of North Korea’s reforestation progression</a> and then can obtain the country’s “informed consent”, a mutual effort to generate carbon credits could be discussed.</p>
<h2>Air pollution</h2>
<p>Addressing transboundary air pollution is the latest development in regional cooperation. North Korea has been an inaugural member (since 1993) of the <a href="http://www.neaspec.org/member-states">North-East Asian Subregional Programme for Environmental Cooperation (NEASPEC)</a>, one goal of which is to mitigate transboundary air pollution. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://opengov.seoul.go.kr/research/11895404">recent study by the Seoul Metropolitan Government</a> (written in Korean) revealed that 38% of pollution particles in the city’s ambient air come from China, and another 7% from North Korea. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10962247.2013.845618">A Japanese air-transport model estimated</a> that more than 45% of ambient PM2.5 (fine particulate matter) concentration in Nonodake (350km north of Tokyo) is from China. Although reducing this pollution in a coordinated way will be a difficult task, real-time data exchange (as proposed by NEASPEC) might be relatively easier. </p>
<p>If the Northeast Asian countries share real-time emissions data as well as the currently available meteorological data, they could generate more reliable pollution forecasts and help people prepare for high-pollution events. The harder task of particle pollution mitigation will be better addressed when the level of negotiating partners is upgraded from the current ministerial level to head of state level.</p>
<h2>Developing neighbour-friendly energies</h2>
<p>If Northeast Asia is to have a sustainable energy future, more regional cooperation will be required. </p>
<p>The trilateral Russia-China-Korea natural gas pipeline is bringing Russian natural gas to South Korea. Natural gas is not a sustainable energy source, but it can be a “bridging fuel” to help countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2016/08/is-natural-gas-a-bridge-fuel/">replacing coal</a> until their renewable energy technology and systems evolve. Then, a natural gas pipeline is an attractive option for <a href="http://www.igu.org/sites/default/files/103419-World_IGU_Report_no%20crops.pdf">South Korea, the world’s second-biggest LNG importer after Japan</a>. </p>
<p>Currently, South Korea’s natural gas imports consist entirely of <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-gas/overview/ngas-ovr-lng-wld-pr-est.pdf">more expensive LNG</a>. In the early 2000s, the <a href="http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-98/issue-20/special-report/trans-korean-gas-pipeline-could-help-asia-energy-security-environmental-problems.html">Trans-Korean natural gas pipeline proposal</a> was planned to supply Russian natural gas to South Korea using a shortcut pipeline passing through North Korea. </p>
<p>Reportedly, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-russia-idUSKBN1881N0">South Korean President Moon has shown interest in the project</a> too. However, the project is not possible until the nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula is resolved.</p>
<p>Instead, there is an alternative for South Korea to seek a regional détente with a natural gas pipeline. Russia’s <a href="http://www.gazprom.com/about/production/projects/pipelines/built/ykv/">“Power of Siberia” pipeline</a> is planned to connect into the capital region of China. If this happens, extending the supply chain to South Korea via <a href="http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2950386">an undersea pipeline between China’s Shandong peninsula and Korea’s Incheon</a> will be simpler. The pipeline would enhance the three countries’ economic ties and political cooperation.</p>
<h2>Asia clean grid connections</h2>
<p>The other energy option, the Asia international grid connection, is a project promoted by South Korea, Japan, and Mongolia. The basic idea is that vast solar and wind energy potential of Mongolia’s Gobi Desert can be utilised by South Korea and Japan. A <a href="http://blogs.worldwatch.org/gobitec-connecting-northeast-asia-to-renewables/">super grid</a> would connect the countries in Northeast Asia. </p>
<p>This option’s most prominent supporter is Masayoshi Son, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/softbank-s-clean-energy-goals-find-welcome-in-mongolia-s-desert">chief executive of SoftBank, Japan’s third-largest public company</a>. Several research institutions and the Korea Electric Power Corporation, South Korea’s only operator of the national grid, <a href="http://www.unescap.org/resources/session-2-technical-financial-and-political-dimensions-power-interconnection">have been studying its feasibility</a>. </p>
<p>The Asian Development Bank is conducting a <a href="https://www.adb.org/projects/48030-001/main">technical feasibility assessment</a>, at Mongolia’s request. In April, the Renewable Energy Institute, an organisation founded by Mr Son in Tokyo, found the project <a href="http://www.renewable-ei.org/en/activities/reports_20170419.php">will benefit all participating countries</a>, citing many successfully operating international grid connections. But it lacks <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=XAQyZXvjusEC&pg=PA182&lpg=PA182&dq=%22there+are+few+incentives+to+cooperate+with+Mongolia%22&source=bl&ots=IoKf4g-t7N&sig=4922kjhTK_M35HsXQnprWVT01P4&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjanIu-sYDWAhXHxLwKHUzrD6IQ6AEIJjAA#v=onepage&q=%22there%20are%20few%20incentives%20to%20cooperate%20with%20Mongolia%22&f=false">China’s active participation.</a> </p>
<p>If further research can find evidence that the project will significantly improve China’s air quality by reducing coal consumption, national governments of the region might help make it happen.</p>
<p>Of course, true green détente in Northeast Asia cannot happen without North Korea’s support and participation. However, if any of the reviewed four options become reality, it will give North Korea a strong incentive to cooperate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hun Park receives funding from the National Research Foundation of Korea.</span></em></p>Green détente options could help South Korea ease the diplomatic tensions in the region.Hun Park, Research Professor, Sustainability, Yonsei UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/843862017-10-10T17:50:36Z2017-10-10T17:50:36ZDams on Myanmar’s Irrawaddy river could fuel more conflicts in the country<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188754/original/file-20171004-6702-zdaabq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dam projects on the Irrawady in Myanmar could not only devastate livelihoods but add more conflicts to an already sensitive region.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Saw John Bright</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Myanmar makes many headlines these days. While most of the focus has been on the Rohingya issue, the country is also heading towards an important economic and livelihood crisis. Myanmar was once called “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27912003?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Asia’s rice bowl</a>”, and that label stuck for much of the 20th century. While the country is keen to reclaim this title, it’s doubtful this ambition will be realised soon. </p>
<p>At the centre of this looming livelihood crisis is large dams. In September 2011, now six years ago, Myanmar’s then-president Thein Sein surprised his countryfolk and international observers by suspending the construction of the Myitsone Dam project in northern Myanmar, <a href="http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/graduate/research/jkirchherr-150410.pdf">the largest of seven dam projects</a> to be built on the Irrawaddy River.</p>
<p>The project had, from its commencement in 2009, been extremely unpopular in the country because of its vast negative impacts on livelihoods, disrupting fisheries and local agriculture.</p>
<p>Even though Myanmar’s political system was extremely restrictive at this time, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016301273?via%3Dihub">a major campaign</a> had emerged against it, led by local communities and NGOs.</p>
<p>The Myitsone Dam’s suspension is widely considered as <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/opinion/24387-the-nld-should-start-2017-by-scrapping-the-myitsone-dam.html">the main symbol of Myanmar’s political change</a> from autocracy to democracy. </p>
<p>When I carried out <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2686454">field research in Myanmar last year</a> a Burmese environmental activist told me:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This was the first time since the 1962 Burmese coup d'état that the country’s political leadership took public opinion into account</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Originally, the Myitsone Dam project was supposed to be completed this year. Although a decision on its fate was supposed to be made last year by Myanmar’s leader Aung San Suu Kyi, it remains suspended <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/31/world/asia/myanmar-china-myitsone-dam-project.html">until today</a>. Many fear, though, that construction may resume soon. The impacts on livelihoods would be devastating. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188753/original/file-20171004-24390-179voq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188753/original/file-20171004-24390-179voq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188753/original/file-20171004-24390-179voq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188753/original/file-20171004-24390-179voq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188753/original/file-20171004-24390-179voq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188753/original/file-20171004-24390-179voq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188753/original/file-20171004-24390-179voq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protests against dams in Myanmar in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kyaw Nyi Soe</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Myanmar Damocles projects</h2>
<p>The main purpose of the dams to be built on the Irrawaddy River is hydropower production. Myanmar’s hydropower potential stands at <a href="http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/graduate/research/jkirchherr-150410.pdf">108 GW</a> – the largest potential of any country in Southeast Asia. But only <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS">52% of households</a> have access to electricity. </p>
<p>The country needs to harness its vast hydropower resources to change this, particularly since Myanmar’s renewable energy potential beyond hydropower is <a href="http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/graduate/research/jkirchherr-150410.pdf">relatively limited</a>. For instance, Myanmar has 3,400 km2 of land with wind speeds greater than six meters per second, the minimum needed for modern wind turbines. This equates to only <a href="https://www.sant.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/kirchherr_v2.pdf">0.5% of the country’s total area</a>. Hence, wind power will not be able to satisfy Myanmar’s rapidly growing energy needs. Myanmar is developing renewable alternatives to generate energy as it has only <a href="http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/graduate/research/jkirchherr-150410.pdf">modest fossil fuel potential</a>.</p>
<p>The planned projects on the Irrawaddy River have a combined capacity of more than 15 GW. For those to be resettled by them, they are so-called “<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.3246/full">Damocles projects</a>”. This term reflects the constant threat hanging over villagers in the communities which are close to the dams: the fear of resettlement. Many of the (to be displaced) communities are Kachin, a Christian minority in Myanmar that has lived on these lands for hundreds of years already. </p>
<p>Such projects create tangible negative impacts on communities even if not implemented. For instance, <a href="https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/its-time-to-renegotiate-hydro-contracts-on-the-thanlwin">communities invest much less</a> in homes and businesses due to a fear of being resettled soon, while stress levels for resettlees are particularly high. Advocacy work against a dam project can also heavily consume people’s time and resources.</p>
<p>But the projects’ social impacts exceed far beyond resettlees. <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/119407/retrieve">Almost 40 million people</a> live in the Irrawaddy River Basin. This equates to two-thirds of Myanmar’s total population. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188752/original/file-20171004-6700-650a59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188752/original/file-20171004-6700-650a59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188752/original/file-20171004-6700-650a59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188752/original/file-20171004-6700-650a59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188752/original/file-20171004-6700-650a59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188752/original/file-20171004-6700-650a59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188752/original/file-20171004-6700-650a59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The rivers to be dammed are important source of livelihoods for local inhabitants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Saw John Bright</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of these rely on fisheries for sustenance and/or a large part of their food. However, large dams act as barriers in a river system, blocking the movement of migratory fish species. So migratory fish downstream can be reduced by as much as 20% due to large dam construction, according to <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/109/15/5609.full">some estimates</a>, while measures to address dams’ negative impacts on fisheries such as fish ladders can only partially mitigate this effect.</p>
<p>Many point out that large dams boost agricultural productivity which can offset the negative impacts on fisheries. Indeed, flooding can be regulated via dams which can improve agricultural productivity by several percentage points, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/122/2/601/1942102/Dams?redirectedFrom=fulltext">according to some studies</a>. </p>
<p>However, large dams can also block the flow of nutrients which, in turn, can <a href="http://burmariversnetwork.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=99&Itemid=100">reduce agricultural yield</a>. Myanmar still is a predominantly agricultural economy, with around <a href="https://wle.cgiar.org/state-knowledge-river-health-ayeyarwady">two-thirds of the population employed in agriculture</a> and almost 40% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) generated in the agricultural sector. Reduced agricultural productivity would thus be devastating for the country.</p>
<h2>Conflict zones</h2>
<p>Myanmar’s best potential hydropower sites are all in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/31/world/asia/myanmar-china-myitsone-dam-project.html?mcubz=1">conflict areas</a>. </p>
<p>Ethnic conflict between the Kachin in northern Myanmar and the Burmese military -with the Kachin demanding more self-determination from the national government since the early 1960 already - was <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/national-news/20972-myitsone-developer-releases-excerpts-of-contract-agreement.html">reportedly exacerbated</a> in 2010 once work on the Myitsone Dam had started. </p>
<p>The Kachin and the Burmese military then clashed in 2011 ending a <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2011/10/04/myitsone-dam-decision-burma">17-year ceasefire agreement</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/aug/12/suukyi-china-dam-irrawaddy-conflict">Some international observers</a> have attributed this to the Myitsone Dam construction. </p>
<p>Such conflicts can further threaten food security since they displace thousands of people who then struggle to rebuild their livelihoods. While international attention is focused on Myanmar’s evolving Rakhine state crisis <a href="https://theconversation.com/global/topics/rohingya-16917">with the Rohingya</a>, a less noticed military conflict is also waging in northern <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/ex-ministers-armed-groups-operate-farms-kachin-s-conflict-areas">Kachin state</a>.</p>
<p>Air strikes by the Burmese government have gradually intensified since 2016 because the Burmese government wants to eliminate the Kachin resistance in an effort to <a href="http://www.atimes.com/article/kachin-war-explodes-myanmars-peace-drive/">unite Myanmar</a>. Kachin State has not witnessed such a violent armed combat for at least 20 years. Any dam constructed in Kachin State these days – which would be an initiative led by the national government – would further fuel this conflict. It’s been <a href="http://www.atimes.com/article/kachin-war-explodes-myanmars-peace-drive/">estimated</a> this ongoing conflict has led to the displacement of 100,000 civilians. </p>
<h2>Impacts of dams</h2>
<p>Large dams will have <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/119407/retrieve">profound impacts</a> on livelihoods of those living in the Irrawaddy River Basin. </p>
<p>Hence, harnessing Myanmar’s hydropower resources will require careful managing of trade-offs by policy-makers – which includes thorough assessments of likely impacts and the creation of alternative livelihoods for those negatively affected by large dams. Myanmar has many regulations in place already – most notably its Environmental Impact Assessment Procedures, <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/business/18490-new-environmental-impact-rules-released.html">adopted in early 2016</a> – to deal with these trade-offs. </p>
<p>These are (largely) sound on paper. However, few of them are implemented and until today little information is shared by the government regarding dam development in Myanmar. If the country’s political leadership wants to achieve sustainable development for Myanmar, this will need to change immediately.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84386/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Kirchherr has received funding for his research in Myanmar from the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF), the Blakey Foundation and the Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Trust for Health and Education. He is a member of the Free Democratic Party, a liberal political party in Germany.</span></em></p>Constructing large dams can provide much needed electricity for Myanmar. But this can also threaten the livelihoods of millions.Julian Kirchherr, Assistant Professor (Sustainable Business and Innovation Studies), Utrecht UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/836782017-10-09T18:33:29Z2017-10-09T18:33:29ZChina’s fight against desertification should not be done at the cost of water security<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187953/original/file-20170928-1483-5zq8j6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Replanting forests in China is a great initiative but it can also prove to be disastrous for water management. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kai Schwärzel</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the first time, China has hosted a major global event on desertification and land degradation, the Cop-13, <a href="http://www2.unccd.int/convention/conference-parties-cop/unccd-cop13-ordos-china">United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification</a>. The event took place in Ordos, in Inner Mongolia, a region known for its water-limited environments. </p>
<p>Such areas (commonly referred to as drylands) occupy about half of the planet and are often sensitive and prone to change because of limitations in water and extreme temporal variability in rainfall. Drylands are home to more than a third of the world’s population.</p>
<p>China has successfully implemented various afforestation programmes over the year to make drylands viable for its economy, and will continue until 2050. But, while planting more trees will further reduce discharge, it will also make China’s water crisis worse, as more trees need more water to grow.</p>
<p>China produces food for a fifth of the world´s population <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014067361360776X">with only 7% of the world’s arable land</a>, as 65% of its cultures are situated in the dryland region of northern and north-western China. The Loess Plateau is part of this dryland region, an area of the size of France. Loess is a wind-blown sediment, transported by wind from the Gobi desert for millenia.</p>
<p>The Loess Plateau is the cradle of the Chinese civilisation because the soils formed on Loess are very fertile and easy to farm. But Loess soils are extremely prone to erosion by water and wind. Centuries of mismanagement resulted in degenerated land and in huge sediment loads in the Yellow River. It’s estimated more than two thirds of the Loess Plateau Region is affected by <a href="http://www.springer.com/de/book/9783319549569">soil erosion</a>. Up to three Gigatonnes per year of sediment load <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n1/abs/ngeo2602.html">was observed in the Yellow River in the late 1950s</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188792/original/file-20171004-1134-1muz9vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188792/original/file-20171004-1134-1muz9vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188792/original/file-20171004-1134-1muz9vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188792/original/file-20171004-1134-1muz9vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188792/original/file-20171004-1134-1muz9vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188792/original/file-20171004-1134-1muz9vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188792/original/file-20171004-1134-1muz9vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188792/original/file-20171004-1134-1muz9vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of the Yellow River, whose watershed covers most of northern China and drains to the Yellow Sea, 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8b/Yellowrivermap.jpg">Shannon/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Control soil erosion</h2>
<p>To control this soil erosion, various soil conservation programmes consisting of terracing, construction of check dams, and vegetation restoration, notably afforestation, were implemented by the Chinese <a href="http://www.springer.com/de/book/9783319549569">government since the 1950s</a>.</p>
<p>Forests were not just established to minimise soil erosion by water but also to combat land degradation in northern China, a plague that significantly reduces the amount of farmland and thus threatens the sustainable regional development. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185116/original/file-20170907-9538-1x194vg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185116/original/file-20170907-9538-1x194vg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185116/original/file-20170907-9538-1x194vg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185116/original/file-20170907-9538-1x194vg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185116/original/file-20170907-9538-1x194vg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185116/original/file-20170907-9538-1x194vg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185116/original/file-20170907-9538-1x194vg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Severe soil ersion on steep slope in Zhifanggou catchment Pingliang Gansu province of China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">author</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11632-012-0108-3">Three North Shelterbelt project</a> – better known as China’s Great Green Wall - was established in 1978 to increase the forest coverage rate in the Three North Region (an area of 1.48 million km2) <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-54957-6">by up to 15% by 2050</a>. But, while soil erosion and the sediment load of the Yellow River have decreased, the water discharge of the river, the third largest in Asia, has significantly declined.</p>
<h2>Drying Yellow river</h2>
<p>This may impact China’s food security because agriculture is by far the largest water consumer in the Yellow River Basin, accounting for 80% of total withdrawal. During 2000–2010, the mean annual discharge was only 60% of that of the average values <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ldr.2246/full">from 1950 to 1999</a>. </p>
<p>Afforestation has also had an important impact.</p>
<p>The forest cover in the Loess Plateau was 6% in 1949, and <a href="http://www.springer.com/de/book/9783319549569">increased to 26% in 2010</a>. This increase has largely contributed to the decline in water resources in northern China because forests evaporate more water <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n11/full/nclimate3092.html">than other land covers</a>. And the newly established forests develop generally more slowly due to water shortage, are prone to diseases, and show <a href="http://www.springer.com/de/book/9783319549569">poor vegetation stability</a>. </p>
<p>As droughts and floods are projected to be <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-016-0083-8">more frequent and more intense</a> and the increasing demand for water in a growing society will further threaten water and food security, increasing social vulnerability and instability in China’s drylands regions. </p>
<h2>Improving water management</h2>
<p>To prevent further decline in water resources, China needs to establish an integrated management of forests, land and water. Implemented measures should be tailored to local environmental conditions. For instance, there should be no afforestation in regions with rainfall less than 450mm per year. </p>
<p>For such drought-prone zones, the establishment of grassland would be a better solution because it stabilises the soil while also ensuring the recharge of depleted water resources. Introducing native tree species that use less water or the establishment such as the Savannah-like forests, which have fewer trees, can also ease drought conditions. </p>
<p>Changing the forest structure of the existing plantations by changing the tree species’ composition or thinning (fewer trees), increases the stability of the forests and will help to reduce their water consumption. Finally, natural re-vegetation should be promoted because it creates more stable forests.</p>
<p>The Chinese government plans to <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n11/full/nclimate3092.html">invest US$9.5 billion in afforestation on the Loess Plateau by 2050</a> but China needs to learn the lessons from its past efforts to fight soil erosion. A more sustainable way of reducing land degradation would be to establish management approaches that can ensure synergies among environment, economy, and society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kai Schwärzel receives funding from the German Research Foundation (DFG). </span></em></p>China has successfully implemented afforestation to counter desertification. But, today, it faces another risk: its waters are declining.Kai Schwärzel, Academic Officer, Head of Soil and Land-Use Management, United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/846492017-10-06T14:40:58Z2017-10-06T14:40:58ZThe quest to revive extinct Aurochs to restore ancient lands<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187999/original/file-20170928-1460-12gb14l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This Auroch skeleton from Denmark dates to around 7,500BC. The circles indicate where the animal was wounded by arrows.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/Bos_primigenius_Vig_uroksen.jpg">Malene Thyssen./Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rewilding and restoration of land often rely on the reintroduction of species. But what happens when what you want to reintroduce no longer exists? What if the animal in question is not only locally extinct, but gone for good? </p>
<p>Yes, this might sound like the plot of Jurassic Park. But in real life this is actually happening in the case of the Aurochs (<em>Bos primigenius</em>). This wild ancestor of all modern cattle has not been seen since the last individual <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/350/6265/1144.summary">died in 1627</a>, in today’s Poland.</p>
<p>Aurochs have been deep within the human psyche for as long as there have been humans, as attested by their prominence in cave art. However, the advent of agriculture and domestication put the magnificent animal on a path to extinction. </p>
<p>So why bring the Aurochs back today and how? And what is the likely outcome? </p>
<p>What is left of Aurochs, besides their depiction in cave paintings, are some fossil remains and some descriptions in the historical record. “Their strength and speed are extraordinary,” wrote the Roman emperor, Julius Caesar, in <a href="http://classics.mit.edu/Caesar/gallic.6.6.html">Commentarii de bello Gallico</a>.</p>
<p>Despite the former large range of habitat of this animal (from the Fertile Crescent to the Iberian Peninsula, from Scandinavia to the Indian subcontinent), the historical record is quite slim on exact descriptions. And in all likelihood its size, behaviour, and general temperament will have <a href="http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/6572/1/Wright%202013%20Thesis.pdf">varied across different environments</a>. Despite this likely variation, the Auroch has survived into modernity as the primordial, powerful and enormous, ox.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188001/original/file-20170928-22252-1swotdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188001/original/file-20170928-22252-1swotdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188001/original/file-20170928-22252-1swotdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188001/original/file-20170928-22252-1swotdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188001/original/file-20170928-22252-1swotdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188001/original/file-20170928-22252-1swotdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188001/original/file-20170928-22252-1swotdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lascaux painting of Aurochs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lascaux_painting.jpg">Prof saxx/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A super-bull</h2>
<p>The idea around today is that the Aurochs’ characteristics have survived, genetically scattered throughout its descendants. By breeding these together and selecting offspring that show increasingly more Aurochs-like traits, the theory is that we can eventually re-create something very similar to the lost animal. This theory is known as back-breeding: literally breeding backwards. </p>
<p>The first attempt to revive the Aurochs was made in the 1930s in Germany by two zoo directors, the brothers Lutz and Heinz Heck, <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00045608.2015.1115332">with an undeniable Nazi party affiliation</a>.</p>
<p>Their creation, now known as the Heck cattle, took only 12 years to accomplish and mixed breeds of domestic cattle with fighting bulls from Spain. The brothers focused more on size and aggression than on being faithful to the anatomical description of the Aurochs. This is partly why nobody today considers Heck cattle to be actual recreations of an extinct species, something reflected in the name these animals carry. </p>
<p>The Heck cattle made it through World War II and have since populated pastures and zoos throughout Europe. Though certainly not Aurochs, many find that they do the Aurochs’ job just fine. This is why the famous <a href="https://www.staatsbosbeheer.nl/Natuurgebieden/oostvaardersplassen">Oostvaardersplassen</a> nature reserve in the Netherlands uses them as one of their primary grazers.</p>
<h2>Recreating wilderness</h2>
<p>For most of the 20th century it was assumed that the landscape in Europe before human settlement was mostly forest. Frans Vera, a Dutch biologist, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/12/24/recall-of-the-wild">changed this inherited wisdom</a> and proposed that the primeval European landscape was a mosaic consisting of forest as well as meadows and other kinds of habitat. One of the main reasons for this, he argued, is that big animals (the Aurochs among them) would have engineered this landscape through their grazing behaviour, something now known as “<a href="https://www.rewildingeurope.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Natural-grazing-%E2%80%93-Practices-in-the-rewilding-of-cattle-and-horses.pdf">natural grazing</a>”.</p>
<p>The Oostvaardersplassen, founded by Vera, is his way of proving that he is right. The herds of Heck cattle were introduced to engineer the landscape, to see what happens to the land in the presence of many grazers. </p>
<p>The theory of natural grazing has attracted many that are eager to introduce grazing animals to new land, in the hope that they will become the engineers of a future European wilderness. This push for wild grazing animals is one of the primary factors behind the drive to recreate the Aurochs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188003/original/file-20170928-1456-5d7rkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188003/original/file-20170928-1456-5d7rkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188003/original/file-20170928-1456-5d7rkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188003/original/file-20170928-1456-5d7rkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188003/original/file-20170928-1456-5d7rkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188003/original/file-20170928-1456-5d7rkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188003/original/file-20170928-1456-5d7rkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Species descending from Aurochs could help reconquer lost lands and wilderness.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/fr/aurochs-des-animaux-2371367/">Alexas Foto/Pixabay</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the world is urbanising, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/sites/agriculture/files/external-studies/2013/farmland-abandonment/fulltext_en.pdf">rural land is being abandoned</a>. In Europe, it is predicted that farmland abandonment <a href="https://ieep.eu/uploads/articles/attachments/60c46694-1aa7-454e-828a-c41ead9452ef/Farmland_abandonment_in_the_EU_-_assessment_of_trends_and_prospects_-_FINAL_15-11-2010_.pdf?v=63664509740">will continue apace</a> through the middle of the century.</p>
<p>This changing land-use pattern across continental scales has re-energised the restoration debate. The Vera hypothesis of an original mozaic landscape is motivating others to restore and rewild by using big grazers.</p>
<h2>What an Aurochs should look like</h2>
<p>Since the Heck brothers conducted their hasty experiments there have been new attempts at back-breeding. Heck cattle have also become an element of this new experimentation.</p>
<p>There are currently projects to <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/350/6265/1144.summary">recreate the Aurochs</a> in several European countries. One of the largest attempts is led by the Taurus Foundation in partnership with Rewilding Europe, a rewilding organisation that wants to introduce the new Aurochs across the continent, as ecosystem engineers. Rival projects exist in the Netherlands, Germany and Hungary, and the Heck cattle are not going anywhere. </p>
<p>There is no shared set of criteria that guides everyone towards the same goal. One of the obvious criteria is genetic, but it was only in 2015 that <a href="https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-015-0790-2">Stephen Park and his colleagues</a> were able to sequence the first full Aurochs genome. The genetic material came from one single fossilised specimen, and much work is still to be done to understand the genetic variability of the extinct species. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188004/original/file-20170928-1460-1oypcne.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188004/original/file-20170928-1460-1oypcne.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188004/original/file-20170928-1460-1oypcne.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188004/original/file-20170928-1460-1oypcne.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188004/original/file-20170928-1460-1oypcne.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188004/original/file-20170928-1460-1oypcne.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188004/original/file-20170928-1460-1oypcne.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tauros bull in the Netherlands, bred by the ‘Tauros’ program aimed at recreating aurochs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tauros_bull_Manolo.JPG">Henri Kerkdijk-Otten/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is unlikely that an organisation will be able to impose a standard for what, in the future, will count as an Auroch. </p>
<p>Some argue that bringing extinct species back has <a href="https://www.pdcnet.org/pdc/bvdb.nsf/purchase?openform&fp=enviroethics&id=enviroethics_2015_0037_0002_0131_0143">no ethical basis</a> and <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21550085.2017.1291826">is in fact impossible</a>, while others consider it <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13347-015-0208-9">an ethical duty</a> to do so. The likeliest result of current and past experimentation is a future full of competing Aurochs, with new genetic paths leading into an unknown future.</p>
<p>Functionally speaking, it makes little difference what the created animals look like, as long as they behave a certain way. But part of the drive for recreating a lost animal is undoubtedly aesthetic: people want the new to look like their idea of the old. And this, more than anything, will ensure future rivalries between competing back-breeders. In the drive to bring one species back, we are almost certain to create several.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84649/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mihnea Tanasescu receives funding from the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO). </span></em></p>Bringing back aurochs is a competitive and ambitious venture aiming at recreating wilderness in Europe. But ethical and scientific questions linger.Mihnea Tanasescu, Research Fellow, Environmental Political Theory, Vrije Universiteit BrusselLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/828592017-09-15T08:48:53Z2017-09-15T08:48:53ZCommuting by subway? What you need to know about air quality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184227/original/file-20170831-22427-faa9vm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2013. Subways abound in fine particles often carried by brakes or trains.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/3336/10915927833/">Diego Torres Silvestre/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/in-pace-change-govt-to-double-network-in-18-months-add-4-cities-on-metro-map/articleshow/60149847.cms">Four more major Indian cities</a> will soon have their own metro lines, the country’s government has announced. On the other side of the Himalayas, Shanghai is building <a href="http://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/2106229/shanghai-metro-keeping-worlds-longest-mass">its 15th subway line</a>, set to open in 2020, adding 38.5 km and 32 stations to the world’s largest subway network. And New Yorkers can finally enjoy their Second Avenue Subway line <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/13/the-second-avenue-subway-is-here">after waiting for almost 100 years</a> for it to arrive.</p>
<p>In Europe alone, commuters in more than 60 cities use rail subways. Internationally, more than <a href="http://mic-ro.com/metro/metrostats.html">120 million people</a> commute by them every day. We count around <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-tfl/what-we-do/london-underground">4.8 million</a> riders per day in London, <a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A9tro_de_Paris">5.3 million</a> in Paris, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_subway">6.8 million</a> in Tokyo, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Metro">9.7 million</a> in Moscow and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing_Subway">10 million</a> in Beijing.</p>
<p>Subways are vital for commuting in crowded cities, something that will become more and more important over time – according to a United Nations 2014 report, <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html">half of the world’s population is now urban</a>. They can also play a part in reducing outdoor air pollution in large metropolises by helping to reduce motor-vehicle use.</p>
<p>Large amounts of breathable particles (particulate matter, or PM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO<sub>2</sub>), produced in part by industrial emissions and road traffic, <a href="http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Housing-andhealth/publications/pre-2009/air-quality-guidelines.-global-update-2005.-particulate-matter,-ozone,-nitrogen-dioxide-and-sulfur-dioxide">are responsible</a> for shortening the lifespans of city dwellers. Public transportation systems such as subways have thus seemed like a solution to reduce air pollution in the urban environment.</p>
<p>But what is the air like that we breathe underground, on the rail platforms and inside trains?</p>
<h2>Mixed air quality</h2>
<p>Over the last decade, several <a href="http://improve-life.eu/en/scientific-publications-on-subway-air-quality/">pioneering studies</a> have monitored subway air quality across a range of cities in Europe, Asia and the Americas. The database is incomplete, but is growing and is already valuable.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184215/original/file-20170831-22617-1ffjqel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184215/original/file-20170831-22617-1ffjqel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184215/original/file-20170831-22617-1ffjqel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184215/original/file-20170831-22617-1ffjqel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184215/original/file-20170831-22617-1ffjqel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184215/original/file-20170831-22617-1ffjqel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184215/original/file-20170831-22617-1ffjqel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Subway, Tokyo, 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/132514254@N04/31341365561/">Mildiou/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, comparing air quality on subway, bus, tram and walking journeys from the same origin to the same destination in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935115300426">Barcelona</a>, revealed that subway air had higher levels of air pollution than in trams or walking in the street, but slightly lower than those in buses. Similar lower values for subway environments compared to other public transport modes have been demonstrated by studies in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231002006878">Hong Kong</a>, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231006008727">Mexico City</a>, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1309104215303792">Istanbul</a> and <a href="http://pubs.rsc.org/-/content/articlehtml/2014/em/c3em00648d">Santiago de Chile</a>.</p>
<h2>Of wheels and brakes</h2>
<p>Such <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S135223100700698X">differences</a> have been attributed to different wheel materials and braking mechanisms, as well as to variations in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969717302449">ventilation</a> and air conditioning systems, but may also relate to differences in measurement campaign protocols and choice of sampling sites.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184220/original/file-20170831-22617-1mtzmna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184220/original/file-20170831-22617-1mtzmna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184220/original/file-20170831-22617-1mtzmna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184220/original/file-20170831-22617-1mtzmna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184220/original/file-20170831-22617-1mtzmna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184220/original/file-20170831-22617-1mtzmna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184220/original/file-20170831-22617-1mtzmna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Second Avenue Subway in the making, New York, 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Second_Avenue_Subway_-_72nd_Street_Station_(8744771284).jpg">MTA Capital Construction/Rehema Trimiew/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Key factors influencing subway air pollution will include station depth, date of construction, type of ventilation (natural/air conditioning), types of brakes (electromagnetic or conventional brake pads) and wheels (rubber or steel) used on the trains, train frequency and more recently the presence or absence of platform screen-door systems.</p>
<p>In particular, much subway particulate matter is sourced from moving train parts such as wheels and brake pads, as well as from the steel rails and power-supply materials, making the particles dominantly iron-containing.</p>
<p>To date, there is no clear epidemiological indication of abnormal health effects on underground workers and commuters. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/articles/19926083/">New York subway workers</a> have been exposed to such air without significant observed impacts on their health, and no increased risk of lung cancer was found among subway train drivers in the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajim.20584/abstract">Stockholm subway system</a>.</p>
<p>But a note of caution is struck by the observations of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18178587">scholars</a> who found that employees working on the platforms of Stockholm underground, where PM concentrations were greatest, tended to have higher levels of risk markers for cardiovascular disease than ticket sellers and train drivers.</p>
<p>The dominantly ferrous particles are mixed with <a href="http://improve-life.eu/en/scientific-publications-on-subway-air-quality/">particles from a range of other sources</a>, including rock ballast from the track, biological aerosols (such as bacteria and viruses), and air from the outdoors, and driven through the tunnel system on turbulent air currents generated by the trains themselves and ventilation systems.</p>
<h2>Comparing platforms</h2>
<p>The most extensive measurement programme on subway platforms to date has been carried out in the Barcelona subway system, where 30 stations with differing designs were studied under the frame of <a href="http://improve-life.eu/">IMPROVE LIFE project</a> with additional support from the AXA Research Fund.</p>
<p>It reveals substantial variations in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896971401715X">particle-matter concentrations</a>. The stations with just a single tunnel with one rail track separated from the platform by glass barrier systems showed on average half the concentration of such particles in comparison with conventional stations, which have no barrier between the platform and tracks. The use of <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896971401715X">air-conditioning</a> has been shown to produce lower particle-matter concentrations inside carriages.</p>
<p>In trains where it is possible to open the windows, such as <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935115301705">in Athens</a>, concentrations can be shown generally to increase inside the train when passing through tunnels and more specifically when the train enters the tunnel at <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27325017">high speed</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184222/original/file-20170831-22559-qedm6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184222/original/file-20170831-22559-qedm6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184222/original/file-20170831-22559-qedm6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184222/original/file-20170831-22559-qedm6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184222/original/file-20170831-22559-qedm6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184222/original/file-20170831-22559-qedm6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184222/original/file-20170831-22559-qedm6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">According to their construction material, you may breath different kind of particles on various platforms worldwide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:London_Tube_(6549832833).jpg">London Tube/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Monitoring stations</h2>
<p>Although there are no existing legal controls on air quality in the subway environment, research should be moving towards realistic methods of mitigating particle pollution. Our experience in the <a href="http://improve-life.eu/en/welcome/">Barcelona subway system</a>, with its considerable range of different station designs and operating ventilation systems, is that each platform has its own specific atmospheric micro environment.</p>
<p>To design solutions, one will need to take into account local conditions of each station. Only then can researchers assess the influences of pollution generated from moving train parts.</p>
<p>Such research is still growing and will increase as subway operating companies are now more aware about how cleaner air leads directly to better health for city commuters.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Created in 2007, the Axa Research Fund supports more than 500 projets around the world conducted by researchers from 51 countries. To learn more about the work of Fulvio Amato, visit the <a href="https://www.axa-research.org/en/projects/fulvio-amato">dedicated site</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82859/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fulvio Amato receives funding from Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness and from AXA Research Fund. More information on Fulvio Amato's work is available on the website of the Axa Research Fund <a href="https://www.axa-research.org/en/projects/fulvio-amato">https://www.axa-research.org/en/projects/fulvio-amato</a>.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Teresa Moreno receives funding from the European LIFE Programme (IMPROVE LIFE13 ENV/ES/000263) and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness with FEDER funds (METRO CGL2012-33066). </span></em></p>Subways seem like the perfect solution to improve air quality in cities. But what about air quality underground?Fulvio Amato, Tenured Scientist, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Teresa Moreno, Director of the Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Instituto de Diagnóstico Ambiental y Estudios del Agua (IDAEA - CSIC)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/833272017-09-05T11:47:08Z2017-09-05T11:47:08ZChina’s ‘sponge cities’ aim to re-use 70% of rainwater – here’s how<p>Asian cities are struggling to accommodate rapid urban migration, and development is encroaching on flood-prone areas. Recent flooding in Mumbai was blamed in part on <a href="https://theconversation.com/mumbai-floods-what-happens-when-cities-sacrifice-ecology-for-development-83328">unregulated development</a>of wetlands, while <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/22/asia/south-asia-flooding/index.html">hastily built</a> urban areas are being affected <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/96327492/attention-is-on-harvey-but-flooding-has-killed-thousands-across-asia">by flooding</a> across India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. This is not a trend only in developing countries; <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/08/why-cities-flood/538251/">floods</a> in Houston, USA, highlighted the risks of development in environmentally sensitive and low-lying areas. <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-18942984">In 2012, a severe flood</a> in Beijing wreaked havoc on the city’s transportation systems, and in 2016 floods <a href="https://ippreview.com/index.php/Blog/single/id/212.html">overwhelmed drainage systems</a> in Wuhan, Nanjing, and Tianjin. The challenges are clear.</p>
<p>Groundwater over-extraction, waterway degradation, and urban flooding are forcing China’s cities to address a vicious cycle. Sprawling urban development and use of impervious material prevent soil from absorbing rainwater, prompting further investment in infrastructures that typically impede natural processes and worsen flood impacts. </p>
<p>China’s “sponge city initiative” aims to arrest this cycle through the use of permeable surfaces and green infrastructures. However, the initiative faces two challenges: lack of expertise of local governments to effectively coordinate and integrate such a complex set of activities, and financial constraints.</p>
<h2>The concept</h2>
<p>Engineering solutions are popular interventions, but cities cannot simply pipe away flood risks. To address the issue, China’s sponge city initiative has <a href="https://www.nederlandenu.nl/binaries/nl-netherlandsandyou/documenten/publicaties/2016/12/06/2016-factsheet-sponge-cities-pilot-project-china.pdf/2016-factsheet-sponge-cities-pilot-project-china.pdf">an ambitious</a> goal: by 2020, 80% of urban areas should absorb and re-use at least 70% of rainwater. </p>
<p>Launched in 2015 <a href="http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/04/20/3684s875116.htm">in 16 cities</a>, the initiative seeks to reduce the intensity of rainwater runoff by enhancing and distributing absorption capacities more evenly across targeted areas. The resulting groundwater replenishment increases availability of water for various uses. This approach not only reduces flooding but also enhances water supply security.</p>
<p>The initiative is similar to the North American concept of low-impact development (LID), <a href="https://www.epa.gov/nps/urban-runoff-low-impact-development">which according</a> to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mimics natural processes in order to protect water quality.</p>
<p>The case of Lingang, a planned city in Shanghai’s Pudong district, illustrates typical sponge city measures. These include rooftops covered by plants, scenic wetlands for rainwater storage, and permeable pavements that store excess runoff water and allow evaporation for temperature moderation. </p>
<p>With ambitions to be China’s largest sponge city project, <a href="http://www.shanghaidaily.com/metro/society/Pudong-areas-to-act-like-sponge-in-pilot-operation-to-store-rainwater/shdaily.shtml">the Lingang city government has invested US$119 million</a> in retrofits and innovations that could be a model for the majority of Chinese cities lacking modern water infrastructure.</p>
<p>Chinese cities are making noteworthy efforts. In a pledge to expand coverage of urban greenery, Shanghai announced in early 2016 the construction of 400,000 square meters of <a href="http://english.cctv.com/2016/04/10/VIDEpPGsoiXwNtY9300wbfSY160410.shtml">rooftop gardens</a>. The project is a collaborative effort among city regulators, property owners, and engineers. Sponge city projects in Xiamen and Wuhan have performed effectively during <a href="http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-08/04/content_26345067.htm">heavy rainfall</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184332/original/file-20170901-26037-1vq2o1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184332/original/file-20170901-26037-1vq2o1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184332/original/file-20170901-26037-1vq2o1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184332/original/file-20170901-26037-1vq2o1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184332/original/file-20170901-26037-1vq2o1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184332/original/file-20170901-26037-1vq2o1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184332/original/file-20170901-26037-1vq2o1g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Grassy rooftops in Shanghai.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kafka4prez/41572747/">kafka4prez/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Improved policies and budgets</h2>
<p>The sponge city initiative requires a holistic and sustained effort, including effective environmental governance. However, concerns persist about weak regulations and <a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2017/08/shocks-china-growing-water-crisis/">selective enforcement</a>. Local officials cannot simply turn the other way when violations are discovered. The unsung tedium of tightening controls is less exciting than bold innovations, but equally crucial for managing water. Gains from sponge city programs should not be offset by poor environmental governance.</p>
<p>Funding is also a persistent constraint. To date, more <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/21/asia/china-water-crisis/index.html">than US$12 billion</a> has been spent on all sponge city projects. The central government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2016/oct/03/china-government-solve-urban-planning-flooding-sponge-cities">funds roughly 15-20%</a> of costs, with the remainder split between local governments and the private sector. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the initiative coincides with a burgeoning municipal debt crisis spurred in part by restrictive <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-03/china-s-risk-crackdown-is-rattling-its-budding-muni-bond-market">financial reforms</a>, bond ratings <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-06/china-s-first-local-financing-body-rating-cut-inflames-old-fears">cuts</a>, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-06/traders-are-worried-about-chinese-local-government-debt-again">nervous</a> bond markets. China’s cities may soon find borrowing costs even higher and avenues for reducing debts narrower. </p>
<p>Investment in sponge city initiatives is also proving to be an increasingly difficult sell, with <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21707192-chinas-private-investors-keep-their-hands-their-pockets-sponge-wrung-dry">only tepid interest</a> from domestic private investors. The government should improve conditions that encourage investment, including tax incentives, better project transparency, and looser credit markets. </p>
<p>Until this happens, sponge city initiatives will have to compete against visible and familiar infrastructure such as roads, transit, and utilities. They will also have to be attractive in a market with numerous other investment options.</p>
<p>Innovative water initiatives have been adopted worldwide, including <a href="https://phys.org/news/2016-03-wetland-midwest-catastrophic-future.html">wetland restoration</a> in the American Midwest, flushing systems using <a href="https://urbanland.uli.org/sustainability/stormwater-retention-paid-dividends-three-sites/">collected rooftop</a> water in Oregon USA, <a href="http://greencampsinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/bioswales1.pdf">bioswales</a> in Singapore, and public spaces as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/15/world/europe/climate-change-rotterdam.html">flexible water retention</a> facilities in the Netherlands. </p>
<p>China has an opportunity to strengthen its emerging global leadership role in urban sustainability. However, it must first implement an effective vision for how sponge city initiatives complement broader environmental governance efforts. Improving regulatory enforcement and reviving interest in related private investment opportunities are two steps it can take.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83327/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Engineering solutions are popular interventions, but cities cannot simply pipe away flood risk. Chinese sponge cities offer a way forward.Asit K. Biswas, Distinguished Visiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of SingaporeKris Hartley, Lecturer in City and Regional Planning, Cornell UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/833282017-09-01T14:31:00Z2017-09-01T14:31:00ZMumbai floods: what happens when cities sacrifice ecology for development<p>As the storm that was <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-climate-change-for-the-hurricane-harvey-disaster-blame-society-83163">hurricane Harvey</a> deluged the areas around Houston, Texas, large parts of <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-himalayan-floods-are-made-worse-by-an-international-blame-game-83103">northern India, Nepal and Bangladesh</a> also experienced heavy rains. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/30/mumbai-paralysed-by-floods-as-india-and-region-hit-by-worst-monsoon-rains-in-years">And the city of Mumbai was hit by another major flooding espisode</a>. Several people have died in the city, many in the <a href="http://www.ndtv.com/mumbai-news/three-storey-building-collapses-in-mumbai-many-feared-trapped-1744236">collapse</a> of a four-storey building that is believed to have been weakened by the rains. </p>
<h2>Overcrowded cities</h2>
<p>Such loss of life in urban areas is often blamed on India’s overcrowding. Cities are growing at unprecedented rates. From a population of <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?id=BeDhBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA229&lpg=PA229&dq=2.86+million+in+1950+mumbai&source=bl&ots=jE4AOv3YZd&sig=a5U_2yZYiSq8T9WbSyCCis4Qigk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjV36D-zoHWAhXD0RQKHQXEC1YQ6AEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=2.86%20million%20in%201950%20mumbai&f=false">2.86 million in 1950</a>, Mumbai is now home to more than 21 million people, and is expected to have almost <a href="http://sites.uoit.ca/sustainabilitytoday/urban-and-energy-systems/Worlds-largest-cities/population-projections/city-population-2050.php">28 million by 2030</a>.</p>
<p>Built along the coastline on a series of islands, the city is surrounded by water: in mudflats, lakes, creeks, rivers, and the ever-present coastline. </p>
<p>Given the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2015/apr/23/price-property-mumbai-in-pictures">astronomical land prices</a> in many parts of Mumbai, and the extreme scarcity of land, it is no surprise that Mumbai has sacrificed its ecology for development. Real estate projects, industry, and state infrastructure (railways, roads and the city’s airport) have built over, and choked, the city’s water networks at various strategic points. Every monsoon, the city floods. </p>
<p>Mudflats, wetlands, floodplains, mangroves and wooded vegetation <a href="https://www.nature.org/media/oceansandcoasts/mangroves-for-coastal-defence.pdf">once slowed down the flow of storm water</a>. The mangrove’s complex root systems and the branching architecture of trees acted as a natural barrier to reduce the force of water flow. But now, they are built over. Garbage spread everywhere clogs the waterways. Most channels and waterways that connect water bodies have been built over too, resulting preventing streams from easily reaching the sea – forcing it to spread out into the low lying areas of the city, adding to the severe flooding.</p>
<p>Mumbai’s extensive wetlands and mudflats, which had connected parts of the city <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?id=pWhx56mvzYYC&pg=PA135&lpg=PA135&dq=mumbai+history+mudflats&source=bl&ots=-Q7ArESbR7&sig=gcmD4tIO2lPB9pfyU3As0DPcFJI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiki6_FvYPWAhVNsBQKHfcOD704HhDoAQglMAA#v=onepage&q=mumbai%20history%20mudflats&f=false">since the early 19th century</a>, have disappeared. Their presence would retain the rain water and soak it into the ground, recharging the wells and ground water table. </p>
<p>Today, with nothing but concrete all around, the city’s land surface <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01944369608975688">does not</a> allow water to soak into it. In especially intense periods of rain, the devastation is extreme – at least 5000 people are believed to have perished <a href="http://www.ndtv.com/photos/news/26july-2005-the-day-mumbai-stopped-11000">in the infamous floods of 2005</a>, and the economic damage was estimated at <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4737187.stm">30 billion rupees (US$690m)</a>. </p>
<h2>The need for introspection</h2>
<p>After the 2005 floods, a committee constituted by the government investigated the reasons for the devastation, concluding that there was an urgent need to restore Mumbai’s wetlands and water systems. In 2007, the municipality <a href="http://www.alnap.org/resource/7180">formulated the Greater Mumbai Action Plan</a>, which among other efforts had a major focus on the restoration of the city’s main river, the Mithi, which had become little more <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/mumbai-s-mithi-is-more-sewer-than-river-now/story-sQhm1HYzYvu6oTND6YS51J.html">than a sewage channel</a> in parts. </p>
<p>Yet around the same time, the chair of the committee overseeing the plan, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=161961">water expert Madhav Chitale</a> spoke publicly about the lack of progress in implementing its recommendations. He said that <a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-economy/chitale-committee-report/article1734744.ece">the city lacked basic topographic data</a> which were essential to build pathways for rainwater flow – which could have prevented flooding in subsequent rains. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184231/original/file-20170831-22435-4feiod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184231/original/file-20170831-22435-4feiod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184231/original/file-20170831-22435-4feiod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184231/original/file-20170831-22435-4feiod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184231/original/file-20170831-22435-4feiod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184231/original/file-20170831-22435-4feiod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184231/original/file-20170831-22435-4feiod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Malad creek, suburban Mumbai, 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ravikhemka/4588707292">Ravi Khemka/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In recent years, climate scientists, urban specialists and civic society groups warned repeatedly that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/nov/27/mumbai-flood-rain-monsoon-city-planning">Mumbai was heading for another heavy flood</a>. A combination of the greater likelihood of high rainfall events because of climate change, and an even more inadequately prepared city, created a situation ripe for a disaster in the making. These warnings came true this monsoon season. </p>
<p>Mumbai’s planners know that climate change is leading to increased likelihood of extreme rainfall, and that restoration of the city’s wetland, river and floodplain networks is central to flood control. Yet the rush to develop construction projections in the city has often disregarded these factors. <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/bangalore/Money-can%E2%80%99t-replace-nature-in-cities/article15000625.ece">Money cannot replace nature in cities</a>. A careful reading of Indian urban history shows that <a href="https://youtu.be/Fz81-iunHu4">cities have historically grown with nature providing a support system</a>. When this system is eroded – as is seen in so many Indian cities today, including in Delhi, <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2016/07/can-nature-thrive-in-cities/">Bangalore</a> and Chennai – the very survival of the city is placed in question.</p>
<p>The story of Mumbai today is a reflection of the ills that plague many Indian cities – and those in other parts of the world as well, such as Miami and Houston.
In a wetter future, it is clearer than ever that cities need ecology to grow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harini Nagendra receives funding from Azim Premji University for her research on urban sustainability. </span></em></p>Flooding in India’s main financial hub is a reminder that urban growth has to work with nature.Harini Nagendra, Professor of Sustainability, Azim Premji UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/825182017-08-30T19:00:40Z2017-08-30T19:00:40ZHow we used cameras in the sky to track invasive plant species<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183982/original/file-20170830-29224-2d6hdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eugenia uniflora (flowers and young red leaves) a native Brazilian species, now invasive in Hawaii.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Starr_080610-8163_Eugenia_uniflora.jpg">Forest & Kim Starr/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pretty pink, orange and white flowers of the shrub <em>Lantana camara</em> or wild sage, are common in ornamental gardens across many parts of the world. Although considered beautiful and hardy by landscape designers, the species is reviled by conservation biologists as “<a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0032407">one of the worst weeds in recorded history</a>”. </p>
<p>The aggressive growth of <em>Lantana camara</em> in habitats outside its native territory (originally the American tropics) has led to its spread over 20 million hectares. In the <a href="http://www.atree.org/resources/ccc/ccc_brt">Biligiri Ranganathaswamy Hills Tiger Reserve</a> in Southern peninsular India, we have studied the spread of the shrub in dense thorny thickets across the park, where it has choked out other plant species, and obstructed the movement of wildlife, creating a major challenge for park managers.</p>
<p>Lantana camara is not unique in its effects. Other <a href="https://www.cbd.int/invasive/WhatareIAS.shtml">invasive alien species</a>, such as the well-known <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/itc/cerc/danoff-burg/invasion_bio/inv_spp_summ/Tamarix_ramosissima.html">salt-cedar which originates in Eurasia</a>, have transformed large landscapes by their rapid spread within a few years.</p>
<p>Conservation planners, such as the managers of the Biligiri Ranganathaswamy reserve, find it a challenge to contain the aggressive expansion of such invasive alien plants, which impact local biodiversity and <a href="http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1614/IPSM-D-11-00095.1?journalCode=ipsm">ecosystem services</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182581/original/file-20170818-7944-fntvgy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182581/original/file-20170818-7944-fntvgy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182581/original/file-20170818-7944-fntvgy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182581/original/file-20170818-7944-fntvgy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182581/original/file-20170818-7944-fntvgy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182581/original/file-20170818-7944-fntvgy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182581/original/file-20170818-7944-fntvgy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hedge of Lantana camara at the Berlin cathedral.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/en/berlin-cathedral-lantana-berlin-2111004/">javallma/Pixaba</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most aggressive shrub invaders such as <em>Lantana camara</em> <a href="http://www.lyonia.org/articles/volume_23/volume.pdf#page=26%22%22">partially or completely replace</a> the native shrub species in forests. While Lantana was brought in as an ornamental plant and has now spread extensively due to <a href="http://www.tropecol.com/pdf/open/PDF_51_2S/J-04.pdf%22%22">berry-feeding birds</a>, other similar invasive species such as <em>Chromolaena odorata</em> (sunflower family) are wind-dispersed. </p>
<h2>Tracking the invaders</h2>
<p>It is important to find solutions that can provide high quality, frequently updated maps of the distribution of invasive plants, so that they can be effectively located, targeted and removed. Given the large areas over which they spread, managers are increasingly turning to high-tech methods such as remote sensing.</p>
<p>This involves photographing landscapes using special cameras in space (on satellites) or in air (on aircraft), that detect more than what the human eye can see, for example because of their capacity <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/remotesensing.html%22%22">to record information in the infra-red and thermal visible spectrum of light</a>, and then deriving information from these pictures. </p>
<p>In recent years, very high resolution satellite data has become available. These can detect objects less than a meter in size, and have greater ability to distinguish the identity of plants due to images taken in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00761.x/abstract">narrow, highly specific wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum.</a>. </p>
<p>We <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01431161.2016.1193795?scroll=top&needAccess=true">reviewed</a> recent research in this direction, finding that while the advances in technology help, they need to be combined with ecological knowledge of invasive plant behaviour, for more effective mapping.</p>
<p>Plant functional traits serve as an effective way to capture many important aspects of invasive species that can be used for mapping via satellites. Plant traits are characteristics of plant structure and function <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3627314/">that impact how they spread, survive and respond to environmental and other conditions</a>. Among the numerous traits that plants have, some are well suited to mapping using satellite data. These can be broadly categorised into three types - seasonal (phenological), structural and physiological.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182583/original/file-20170818-7952-ex3a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182583/original/file-20170818-7952-ex3a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182583/original/file-20170818-7952-ex3a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182583/original/file-20170818-7952-ex3a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182583/original/file-20170818-7952-ex3a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182583/original/file-20170818-7952-ex3a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182583/original/file-20170818-7952-ex3a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Invasive shrub Lantana camara occupying niches in the understorey tropical forest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Madhura Niphadkar</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Seasonal traits</h2>
<p>Plants produce leaves, seeds and flowers at specific times of the year, which can be tracked by remote sensing. Differences between invasive species and native species in the onset of senescence (coloured leaves, and leaf fall), leafing (green leaves), or flowering (presence of coloured flowers), show up clearly within specific spectral wavelengths used by satellite sensors at selected times of the year.</p>
<p>This is an especially effective strategy to map shrubs and herbs, which are located below the canopy and hence obscured from the satellite sensors. For instance, the invasive Amur honeysuckle - <em>Lonicera mackii</em> was mapped in the late fall/autumn season, when the deciduous trees were leafless, and the invasive climber was clearly visible through gaps in the leafless branches of the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01431160701373721">overstorey trees</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182586/original/file-20170818-7952-2lk8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182586/original/file-20170818-7952-2lk8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182586/original/file-20170818-7952-2lk8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182586/original/file-20170818-7952-2lk8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182586/original/file-20170818-7952-2lk8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182586/original/file-20170818-7952-2lk8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182586/original/file-20170818-7952-2lk8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Amur honeysuckle - the understorey climber.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=745131">Fanghong/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Structural and physiological traits</h2>
<p>Structural traits – such as clumping into clusters distributed among native plants, or height – can also be used effectively for mapping. <a href="http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpls.2017.00892/full">In our own research in the Biligiri Ranganathaswamy reserve</a>, we were able to map Lantana camara’s large contiguous clumps spreading patterns. <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/lidar.html">LIDAR data</a> which use pulsed laser light rays to provide 3 dimensional maps of the earth’s surface, is also handy, for instance to monitor the distribution of <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/105/11/4519">five invasive trees species in Hawaiian forests</a> .</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183305/original/file-20170824-18746-1pzrf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183305/original/file-20170824-18746-1pzrf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183305/original/file-20170824-18746-1pzrf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183305/original/file-20170824-18746-1pzrf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183305/original/file-20170824-18746-1pzrf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183305/original/file-20170824-18746-1pzrf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183305/original/file-20170824-18746-1pzrf71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Lantana species invade almost everything and anything. Here in the Biligirirangana Hills, Karnataka.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Madhura Niphadkar</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Invasive alien plants are often able to spread faster because of physiological traits such as faster growth due to higher resource utilisation. For instance, studies have shown that <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/4/9/2510">leaf Nitrogen concentration</a> and <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425708000199">moisture content</a> of invasive plants is different from native species. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/explainer-what-are-lidar-radar-and-sonar">LIDAR, RADAR (sensors that use radio waves)</a> and imaging spectroscopy can help discriminate invasive species by assessing differences in their photosynthetic efficiency (use of light energy).</p>
<h2>Protecting world biodiversity</h2>
<p>Our review of <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01431161.2016.1193795?scroll=top&needAccess=true">the use of plant traits for invasive species mapping via remote sensing</a> shows that phenological and structural traits have been exploited for mapping, but physiological traits have potential to be better utilised. </p>
<p>This monitoring of invasive plants constitutes one of the <a href="https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/">20 targets</a> - set under the Convention on Biological Diversity in 2010 at Aichi in Japan - that aim at protecting biodiversity.<br>
Since then, remote sensing has been <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rse2.15/pdf">increasingly proposed as a tool to achieve this goal </a> and is currently entering its golden age with <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/drones-in-science-fly-and-bring-me-data-1.13161">drone mapping</a>. </p>
<p>Combining ecological insights with advanced remote sensing technology could better enable society to meet its commitment towards biodiversity protection.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Madhura Niphadkar received funding from National Geographic Society for a section of her Doctoral research, which involved this work. This study forms a part of a chapter in her dissertation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harini Nagendra does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For mapping patterns of plant invasion from the sky, understanding plant behaviour on the ground and using it along with remote sensing cameras, is crucial.Harini Nagendra, Professor of Sustainability, Azim Premji UniversityMadhura Niphadkar, Post Doctoral Fellow, Ashoka Trust for Research Ecology and EnvironmentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/825132017-08-30T06:25:40Z2017-08-30T06:25:40ZBiofuel breakthroughs bring ‘negative emissions’ a step closer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183545/original/file-20170828-27532-1jpc4ji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Algae could be the key to a new type of biofuel.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">hbarrows/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The use of biofuels helps reduce human greenhouse gas emissions. That’s one reason why some petroleum <a href="http://www.shell.com.au/motorists/shell-fuels/shell-unleaded-fuels.html">companies</a> offer petrol containing up to 10% ethanol (a biofuel). But if we are to have any real chance of avoiding catastrophic climate change, it is not enough to reduce our emissions; we must put the process into reverse. </p>
<p>We must aim for “negative emissions”. This means removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and ideally returning to pre-industrial atmospheric CO₂ levels. This is a daunting task: the present atmospheric concentration is <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/we-just-breached-the-410-ppm-threshold-for-co2/">410 parts per million (ppm)</a>, compared with around <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/">280ppm</a> before the Industrial Revolution. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-limit-global-warming-to-1-5-c-if-we-do-these-things-in-the-next-ten-years-69158">We can limit global warming to 1.5°C if we do these things in the next ten years</a>
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<p>Intriguingly, recent breakthroughs (see below) in biofuel research have brought this prospect a step closer. To understand why, we must first know a little about biofuel production.</p>
<h2>Shifting to algae</h2>
<p>For years the petroleum industry has been producing biofuels, using food crops such as sugar cane, corn and soybeans, which are transformed by fermentation or other chemical processes into ethanol or biodiesel. This has been controversial, in part because of the negative consequences of large-scale monoculture farming of these crops. </p>
<p>Accordingly, petroleum companies are now <a href="http://corporate.exxonmobil.com.au/en-au/energy/research-and-development/advanced-biofuels/energy-investments-advanced-biofuels">funding research programs</a> on so-called second-generation biofuel crops – particularly algae, which can be grown in water rather than on land. This will circumvent many of the criticisms of first-generation biofuels.</p>
<p>Algae come in many <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algae">forms</a>. Seaweed is a well-known form of macro-algae and there are also many micro-algae, such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-toxic-algae-blooms-like-floridas-are-so-dangerous-to-people-and-wildlife-61973">algal blooms</a> that occur from time to time in polluted rivers and lakes. </p>
<p>Algae are relatively inefficient at photosynthesising CO₂. But recent discoveries go some way towards solving this problem. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-19/genome-decoder-s-fatty-algae-is-biofuel-breakthrough-for-exxon">Exxon-funded researchers</a> have succeeded in genetically modifying algae so as to <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/gene-editing-algae-doubles-biofuel-output-potential">double</a> the rate of carbon drawdown. Independently, a group of researchers at Washington State University has just <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/07/170724142033.htm">discovered</a> how to grow algae in days, rather than weeks, paving the way for more efficient biofuel production.</p>
<p>If we can grow the right kind of algae, in sufficient quantities, the next step will be to convert it to biofuel. First-generation biofuel crops were rich in sugars and starch that could be transformed into fuels by processes such as fermentation. Algae cannot be transformed in this way. There is, however, another process that can be used: <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms1053">pyrolysis</a>.</p>
<p>If you heat biomass such as algae in the presence of oxygen, it burns, meaning that the carbon combines with oxygen from the air to form CO₂. However, if it is heated in the absence of oxygen, it cannot burn. What happens instead is that various oils and gases are driven off, leaving a relatively pure form of carbon, known as char or <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms1053">biochar</a>. The process is known as pyrolysis and has been practised for thousands of years to turn wood to charcoal.</p>
<p>Charcoal burns with particular intensity and historically was valued wherever very high temperatures were required, as in metal manufacture. The process is represented in the chart below. The gas, when burned, produces far more heat than is necessary to run the pyrolyser, and the excess can be used to generate electricity. Most importantly for the petroleum industry, the oils produced are easily refined into transport fuels. For this reason, petroleum companies are funding research on pyrolysis.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182428/original/file-20170817-28120-1atl2dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182428/original/file-20170817-28120-1atl2dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182428/original/file-20170817-28120-1atl2dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182428/original/file-20170817-28120-1atl2dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182428/original/file-20170817-28120-1atl2dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182428/original/file-20170817-28120-1atl2dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182428/original/file-20170817-28120-1atl2dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pyrolysis inputs and outputs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Hopkins</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Apart from burning with an intense heat, biochar has two other very important characteristics. First, it is a valued soil additive, and in fact is sold to agricultural users for this purpose. </p>
<p>Second, when mixed into the soil it will survive for hundreds of years, perhaps even a millennium. Producing char and sequestering it in soil is therefore a semi-permanent way of capturing carbon. In contrast, forests are rather less permanent, because trees eventually die and rot, returning methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere; or burn, returning CO₂ to the atmosphere. Pyrolysis, then, offers the possibility long-term carbon sequestration - <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms1053">it is a route to negative emissions</a>.</p>
<p>The last thing to note about pyrolysis is that by varying the parameters of the process such as the temperature and the type of algae, one can vary the relative proportions of outputs. In particular, one can maximise production of char, or alternatively, the production of oils to be used for transport fuels. Biofuel researchers are of course interested in maximising the latter, with char being to some extent an unwanted byproduct.</p>
<p>However, if the pyrolysis of algae becomes a commercially viable way of producing biofuel, the char can be sold for soil enrichment. The result would be a steady stream - perhaps more realistically a trickle - of carbon returned to the soil.</p>
<p>All this brings us tantalisingly close to large-scale char production, for its own sake. The very same research that delivers commercially viable second generation biofuels could presumably be redirected to maximise the yield of char. Biofuel would then be a byproduct, rather than the primary goal. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/inaction-on-climate-change-risks-leaving-future-generations-530-trillion-in-debt-81134">Inaction on climate change risks leaving future generations $530 trillion in debt</a>
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<hr>
<p>Unfortunately, the market for char is not yet sufficiently developed to make this a commercial proposition. A significant price on carbon could change all this. If we are serious about achieving negative emissions, that may be the price we need to pay. And who knows, once the benefits of char as a soil additive becomes <a href="http://www.biochar-international.org/sites/default/files/IBI%20Biochar%20Application%20Guidelines_web.pdf">better established</a>, the commercial value of char may be such that the a price on carbon will no longer be necessary.</p>
<p>Could char production on a massive scale have unwanted side effects? We <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/climatechange/australias-farming-future/biochar">know</a> that fresh biochar in the soil can deactivate herbicides rapidly leading to poor weed control. These results suggest that biochar use will need to be carefully managed in agricultural situations that rely on herbicides applied to the soil. The net agricultural benefits appear, however, to be <a href="http://www.biochar-international.org/biochar/soils">overwhelming</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Hopkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The right kind of algae can be converted to biofuel, and there are potential side benefits for carbon capture.Andrew Hopkins, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/827852017-08-29T06:21:09Z2017-08-29T06:21:09ZIn Vietnam poverty and poor development, not just floods, kill the most marginalised<p>Flooding and landslides in northwest Vietnam have caused widespread devastation since the start of August. The disaster crippled the provinces of <a href="http://vnexpress.net/infographics/thoi-su/10-nguoi-chet-25-nguoi-mat-tich-do-mua-lu-o-mien-bac-3622544.html">Son La, Dien Bien, Yen Bai and Lai Chau</a>, situated within one of the most disadvantaged regions of the country.</p>
<p>Tragically, <a href="http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Situation_Update_no_4_Landslide_and_Flashflood_Northern_Viet_Nam.02.pdf">at least 27 lives have been lost</a>, many more are missing and almost 1 trillion Vietnamese Dong (US$43m) of damage <a href="http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2017/aug/07/floods-landslides-kill-26-in-vietnam-1639646.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter">has been reported</a>. The already poor infrastructure of the region has been badly impacted.</p>
<p>Pictures and videos posted online and across different media channels have shown <a href="http://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/5-killed-in-overnight-downpours-across-vietnam-s-northern-mountains-3622282.html">terrifying and dramatic scenes</a>. In <a href="http://video.vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/xa-hoi/lu-ong-tan-pha-tan-hoang-o-4-tinh-tay-bac-3622533.html">some footage</a> we can see the rapidly moving flood water sweeping through residential areas. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zwq1nlGv0ms?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Speaking to survivors about the disaster.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Disasters are widely misunderstood in Vietnam – as they are elsewhere – as “<a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-matthew-is-just-the-latest-unnatural-disaster-to-strike-haiti-66766">natural</a>” occurrences. As a consequence of this, there is little open discussion about the <a href="http://www.ids.ac.uk/news/natural-hazards-unnatural-disasters-understanding-disasters-in-the-context-of-development">social, political and economic factors</a> that are inextricably linked to the issue. It is of particular concern that the voices of those most affected, Vietnam’s ethnic minorities, are not heard. </p>
<h2>Minority groups most affected</h2>
<p>Ethnic minority groups, predominantly the Tay, Thai and Hmong peoples, compose approximately <a href="http://bienphongvietnam.vn/nghien-cuu-trao-doi/thong-tin-tu-lieu/1460-ddd.html">80% of the population in the region</a>. It is one of the poorest parts of the country. The <a href="https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59144/2/MPRA_paper_59144.pdf">poverty rate among ethnic minorities</a> in the region is 73% and the extreme poverty rate 45.5%. By comparison, the extreme poverty rate among the Kinh majority (88% of population) nationwide is 2.9%.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183440/original/file-20170825-1005-1j04fnj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183440/original/file-20170825-1005-1j04fnj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183440/original/file-20170825-1005-1j04fnj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183440/original/file-20170825-1005-1j04fnj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183440/original/file-20170825-1005-1j04fnj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183440/original/file-20170825-1005-1j04fnj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183440/original/file-20170825-1005-1j04fnj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparing GDP of affected provinces to Hanoi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">General Statistics Office (GSO)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ethnic minorities in Vietnam are <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTINDPEOPLE/Resources/407801-1271860301656/Chapter_8_Vietnam.pdf">terribly disadvantaged</a> due to the lack of access to education, infrastructure, transportation, health care and other services. These factors have contributed to wide-ranging social and economic disadvantage - and therefore, increased vulnerability. </p>
<p>In the northwestern part of Vietnam, these groups are also often subsistence farmers – crops are critical to their existence and flooding brings devastation. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183342/original/file-20170824-23353-1degrxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183342/original/file-20170824-23353-1degrxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183342/original/file-20170824-23353-1degrxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183342/original/file-20170824-23353-1degrxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183342/original/file-20170824-23353-1degrxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183342/original/file-20170824-23353-1degrxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183342/original/file-20170824-23353-1degrxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most groups affected in northwestern Vietnam are heavily dependent on crops.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/43423301@N07/4014932202/">MM/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Beginning in June, <a href="http://phongchongthientai.vn/tin-tuc/du-bao-mua-lon-dien-rong-o-bac-bo-va-canh-bao-lu--lu-quet--sat-lo-dat-khu-vuc-mien-nui-phia-bac/-c4510.html">forecasts indicated that serious flooding was likely</a> in the region, and there were <a href="http://phongchongthientai.vn/tin-tuc/mua-lu-tu-6-9-7-gay-thiet-hai-tai-cac-tinh-mien-nui-phia-bac/-c4641.html">widespread instances of flooding</a> in early July. These messages were disseminated across media platforms. However, it is unclear whether this message was actually received by those most at risk. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183072/original/file-20170823-13692-1jbav0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183072/original/file-20170823-13692-1jbav0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183072/original/file-20170823-13692-1jbav0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183072/original/file-20170823-13692-1jbav0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183072/original/file-20170823-13692-1jbav0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183072/original/file-20170823-13692-1jbav0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=825&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183072/original/file-20170823-13692-1jbav0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=825&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183072/original/file-20170823-13692-1jbav0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=825&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Article 3 of the Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even more problematic is the way in which disasters are perceived and discussed in Vietnam. The focus is invariably on the “natural” quality of disasters, as referred to by the <a href="http://www.ifrc.org/Global/Publications/IDRL/Law%20on%20Natural%20Disaster%20Prevention%20and%20Control_No%20%2033_IFW.pdf">Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control</a> (No. 33/2013/QH13), which to an extent defines the scope of narrative regarding disasters in Vietnam. This language, repeated by the media, leaves many people blind to the social and political aspects of catastrophes.</p>
<h2>The official narrative</h2>
<p>When disasters happen, the focus of Vietnamese media is consistently on reporting the death toll, loss and damage figures, and <a href="http://cand.com.vn/doi-song/Mua-lon-gay-thiet-hai-nghiem-trong-tai-huyen-Muong-Nhe-va-huyen-Nam-Po-Dien-Bien-452279/">stories involving search and rescue</a> operations by <a href="http://en.nhandan.com.vn/politics/domestic/item/5430102-front-leader-presents-gifts-to-flood-victims-in-son-la.html">the government</a> and <a href="http://redcross.org.vn/redcross2/en2/home/InfoDetail.jsp?area=1&cat=1128&ID=2917">non-government</a> organisations. </p>
<p>In the wake of this tragedy, the government initiated a major <a href="http://en.nhandan.com.vn/society/item/5404602-joint-efforts-made-to-support-flood-victims.html">disaster relief fundraising campaign</a>. </p>
<p>Lieutenant Lo Thi Sao Chi, who was organising the military response to the disaster, <a href="http://vovworld.vn/vi-VN/xa-hoi-doi-song/don-suc-on-dinh-cuoc-song-nguoi-dan-bi-lu-o-yen-bai-va-son-la-565238.vov">told the VOV5 news site</a> that the government “participated in the search for missing people, relocated households in dangerous areas, cleared soil and rocks from the flood and helped people resettle their lives.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"894176493781254144"}"></div></p>
<p>But the media has failed to actually ask the right question: why were the victims living in such <a href="http://giadinh.vnexpress.net/photo/to-am/cuoc-song-trong-dieu-kien-khac-nghiet-cua-tre-vung-cao-3226773.html">unsafe, vulnerable living conditions</a> in the first place? </p>
<p>How come <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21647653-continuing-grinding-poverty-vietnams-minority-regions-liability-communist-party-out">the poverty and inequality issues plaguing ethnic minorities</a> have not been addressed? Little progress has been made among these most marginalised groups, despite significant improvements across the country as a whole. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, a serious critique of the <a href="http://naturalhazardscience.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389407-e-25">root causes of disasters</a> like this one is almost completely absent in the media. </p>
<h2>Devastating development</h2>
<p>What has been conveniently forgotten is the fact that communities affected by flooding are often particularly vulnerable because they have been subjected to <a href="http://www.smc.org.ph/administrator/uploads/apmj_pdf/APMJ2006N1ART8.pdf">forced resettlement</a> due to development agendas. </p>
<p>Over the past 30 years, the government has been developing hydropower capacity in the affected region. Hydropower projects in <a href="http://www.sci.pro.vn/en/project/hydroelectric/item/152-lai-chau-hydropower-project.html">Lai Chau</a> (completed 2016) and <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/son-la-dam">Son La</a> (completed 2012) were designed to maximise profit. Unfortunately, in many cases of such development, <a href="https://www.academia.edu/19760168/Resettlement_in_Vietnam_s_hydropower_industry_Policies_and_social_impact_assessment">environmental and social impacts</a> are secondary concerns. </p>
<p>The projects have <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/sites/default/files/attached-files/sonla2006.pdf">displaced numerous communities</a>. International Rivers reports that the Son La project alone, in the northwest of the country and 320km from Hanoi, may have displaced 91,000 people.</p>
<p>Those forced to move have been thrust into ever more vulnerable living conditions. </p>
<p>In many cases they have lost access to the river that sustained livelihoods and essential services such as water and electricity. As a result, poverty and inequality have been exacerbated.</p>
<h2>Reduce risk, listen to the people</h2>
<p>Yet, people in northwest Vietnam continue to demonstrate a remarkable level of resilience in spite of systemic disadvantage. Those who had been displaced by flooding almost immediately began to clean up the area after this latest tragedy, <a href="http://video.vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/xa-hoi/do-xo-vot-cui-trong-long-ho-thuy-dien-sau-lu-quet-3622942.html">salvage materials</a> and rebuild their lives.</p>
<p>Although rural Vietnam has historically experienced extreme disaster impacts, <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601431/snow-in-vietnam-and-other-new-climate-patterns-threaten-farmers/?set=601428&utm_source=MIT+Technology+Review&utm_campaign=94b075950e-Weekend_Reads&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_997ed6f472-94b075950e-153675281&mc_cid=94b075950e&mc_eid=bc653ca6c3">climate change threatens</a> to act as a risk multiplier. </p>
<p>The government officially advocates for the decentralisation of disaster risk management, but Dutch NGO CORDAID <a href="https://www.cordaid.org/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2013/08/Vietnam_risk_mapping_20120130_ETG.pdf">reports</a> that, “the involvement of vulnerable groups is still limited and in effect the plans are still managed in a top-down manner.”</p>
<p>It is possible to reduce disaster risk through policy decisions and development plans. However, in reality the more common outcome of development is the <a href="http://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-disaster-risk-reduction-drr-versus-disaster-risk-creation-drc/">creation of additional risk</a>.</p>
<p>More often than not, vulnerable people are ignored and decisions are made based on the potential for economic gain. </p>
<p>Those on the margins of society <a href="https://theconversation.com/grenfell-tower-fire-exposes-the-injustice-of-disasters-79666">always suffer in disasters</a>. If we truly aspire to build a better society, their needs must now be prioritised.</p>
<p>Change cannot come quick enough. Northern Vietnam continues to suffer this summer, most recently as <a href="http://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/over-700-houses-damaged-as-typhoon-hato-batters-northern-vietnam-3632117.html">Typhoon Hato brought further flooding</a> to the already stricken region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82785/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason von Meding receives funding from the Australian government and Save the Children for collaborative projects in Vietnam. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hang Thai T.M. receives funding from Save the Children for research in Vietnam . </span></em></p>Disasters may have ‘natural’ triggers but why are ethic minorities forced to live under harsh conditions that make them particularly vulnerable to catastrophes?Jason von Meding, Senior Lecturer in Disaster Risk Reduction, University of NewcastleHang Thai T.M., Research assistant, Posts and Telecommunications Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/824942017-08-25T05:55:08Z2017-08-25T05:55:08ZHealing Colombia’s war-ravaged landscapes<p>“The armed conflict took so much from us”, one young farmer and communications activist tells us, motioning at photographs of devastated avocado plantations on a sweltering July morning on Colombia’s Caribbean north coast. </p>
<p>Our group of international researchers is in El Carmen de Bolívar, the largest town in the Montes de María region, to meet with local media groups that are working to integrate environmental restoration into the peace process of this war-torn nation. </p>
<p>This area, long a Colombian hotbed for organised activism for the rights of small farmers, or <em>campesinos</em>, has also seen horrific violence. Since the 1970s, Montes de María has been host to numerous guerrilla groups and, later, paramilitary organisations.</p>
<p>Bombings, crossfire and bloody massacres forced thousands to flee. According to the NGO <a href="https://www.oxfamamerica.org/static/media/files/contested-spaces-colombia-briefing-paper.pdf">Oxfam</a>, armed violence uprooted 269,000 Colombians annually from 2002 to 2010. At present, one in ten remains displaced.</p>
<p>Humans weren’t the only victims of Colombia’s five-decade armed conflict. In Caribbean Colombia, <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1940082917714229">one of the most biodiverse regions in the world</a>, nature was also deeply affected. </p>
<h2>Nature in danger</h2>
<p>We could rattle off grim statistics like the fact that <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Nearly-Half-of-Colombias-Ecosystems-at-Risk-of-Collapse-Study-20170818-0004.html">46% of Colombia’s ecosystems are now at risk of collapse</a> and that 92% of the <a href="https://es.mongabay.com/2016/12/colombia-iniciativas-comunitarias-conservar-los-bosques-secos-caribe-antioquia/">tropical dry forests</a> that are typical of the Montes de María region <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1940082917714229">have already disappeared</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183236/original/file-20170824-6648-18e4xkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183236/original/file-20170824-6648-18e4xkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183236/original/file-20170824-6648-18e4xkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183236/original/file-20170824-6648-18e4xkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183236/original/file-20170824-6648-18e4xkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1803&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183236/original/file-20170824-6648-18e4xkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1803&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183236/original/file-20170824-6648-18e4xkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1803&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">La Cansona’s bullet-scarred ceiba tree.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Juan Salazar</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But survivors’ tales speak of deeper truths about how war fractures relationships between humans and their habitats. Farmers tell us about a hundred-year-old <em>ceiba</em> tree in the village of La Cansona that still displays the scars of gunfire.</p>
<p>Soraya Bayuelo, the respected director of Línea 21 Communication Collective, recalls a large tamarind tree in Las Brisas to which a dozen men were tied and then decapitated in March 2000. The tree dried up after that, other activists add, and it only started blooming again after a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37211085">government ceasefire with guerrillas</a> went into effect. </p>
<p>The young farmers turned activists also remember stories of how avocados – long the economic engine of the region – came down from the mountains speckled in blood. </p>
<p>Conflict hurt agricultural production, too. An <a href="http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/Lectura_finanzas/pdf/dtser_171.pdf">analysis</a> by the Centre for Regional Economic Studies of the Banco de la República, Colombia’s central bank, found that avocado production in war-torn 1992 was fully 88.6% lower than in 2012, when the conflict had begun to cool. </p>
<p>More recently, a fungus has taken its toll. Over the past five years, as farmers began returning home from wherever they’d scattered, they found that a Phytophthora pathogen had begun <a href="https://thellamadiaries.com/2017/06/29/disarmament-and-the-avocado/">devastating the area’s avocado plantations</a>. </p>
<p>Can a country heal if its land remains scarred? The farmers and activists we met in Montes de María say no, arguing that without environmental restoration there can be no social reparation. </p>
<h2>The new environmental activism</h2>
<p>Things are, however, slowly improving for Montes de María. </p>
<p>The <em>mochuelo</em> bird and the Cotton-top Tamarin monkey, both of which had retreated or disappeared from the area, are also coming back, if slowly, much like the people displaced from their land. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183366/original/file-20170824-18702-1xsa8gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183366/original/file-20170824-18702-1xsa8gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183366/original/file-20170824-18702-1xsa8gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183366/original/file-20170824-18702-1xsa8gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183366/original/file-20170824-18702-1xsa8gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183366/original/file-20170824-18702-1xsa8gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183366/original/file-20170824-18702-1xsa8gu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A mochuelo bird in captivity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mochuelo_Barranquilla.jpg">Jdvillalobos</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During our visit, El Carmen de Bolívar, birthplace of one of Colombia’s most celebrated musicians and composers, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucho_Berm%C3%BAdez">Lucho Bermudez</a>, was preparing for a traditional music festival. Across town we heard strains of folk melodies – <em>cumbia</em>, <em>porro</em>, <em>vallenato</em> and <em>fandango viejo</em> – and saw people dancing in public squares.</p>
<p>That’s a sign of change. It’s been almost a year since Colombia first signed a <a href="https://theconversation.com/colombia-has-a-new-peace-agreement-but-will-it-stick-69535">peace agreement</a>, and people are no longer afraid to be out and about.</p>
<p>Still, tensions have not totally disappeared. In the post-war period, environmental conflicts are emerging as the latest <a href="https://www.wola.org/analysis/consolidation-land-restitution-and-rising-tensions-in-montes-de-maria/">threat to the country’s fragile peace</a>. </p>
<p>The young farmers’ collectives we met here, who are part of the community group Jóvenes Provocadores de Paz (Young Peacemakers), are testament to Colombia’s long tradition of <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/citizensa-media-against-armed-conflict">citizen media initiatives</a>. </p>
<p>During the late stages of the conflict, such groups worked to restitch the country’s social fabric, developing a community-media network to keep people informed and reclaiming public spaces from guerrilla and paramilitary forces. </p>
<p>Today, organisations like <a href="http://www.sembrandopaz.org/political-work/">Sembrando Paz</a> (literally “sowing peace”), whose members are all conflict survivors, have turned their attention to the environment. </p>
<p>This group of farmers in their late teens and twenties has been photographically documenting various <a href="http://www.sembrandopaz.org/partner-communities/alta-montana/">ecological restoration initiatives</a> underway here, visually demonstrating why the Colombian peace process can only succeed if rural livelihoods are transformed and secured. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183229/original/file-20170824-30654-1k6vmon.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183229/original/file-20170824-30654-1k6vmon.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183229/original/file-20170824-30654-1k6vmon.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183229/original/file-20170824-30654-1k6vmon.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183229/original/file-20170824-30654-1k6vmon.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183229/original/file-20170824-30654-1k6vmon.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183229/original/file-20170824-30654-1k6vmon.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Youth Peace Provocateurs’ environmental work is the latest incarnation of a long history of Colombian campesino activism.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Juan F Salazar</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Land of conflict</h2>
<p>Their focus reflects increasing local concern that <em>campesinos</em> previously exiled by violence will soon find themselves displaced by new threats: climate change-induced drought, palm oil monoculture and development. </p>
<p>From the Caribbean coast to the Amazon forests, massive infrastructure projects are afoot in Colombia, bringing gold and coal <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-mining-idUSKCN18C2KR">mining</a>, dams and highways to areas once too violent and remote for <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/39e07b96-4b3d-11e5-b558-8a9722977189">government investment</a>. </p>
<p>Critics insist that <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13642987.2016.1179031?src=recsys&journalCode=fjhr20">natural resource extraction can’t pay for peace</a>, warning that it will usher in flooding, land grabs and exploitation of protected natural areas. </p>
<p>Proposed hydroelectric ventures have been met by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/andes-to-the-amazon/2015/mar/14/colombians-big-mobilisation-save-countrys-principal-river">massive protests</a>, and the farmers we spoke with promised to continue mobilising to protect their homesteads.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183376/original/file-20170824-18698-1oqo313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183376/original/file-20170824-18698-1oqo313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183376/original/file-20170824-18698-1oqo313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183376/original/file-20170824-18698-1oqo313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183376/original/file-20170824-18698-1oqo313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183376/original/file-20170824-18698-1oqo313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183376/original/file-20170824-18698-1oqo313.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Farmers in the Alta Montaña region have vociferously protested environmentally damaging infrastructure developments. Here, they prepare to march.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.sembrandopaz.org/es/category/politico/%22">Sembrando Paz Archive</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 2016 peace agreement supports the protestors’ position that Colombia must rebuild both its social fabric and its environmental health, in theory at least. The accords explicitly state that a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/oct/24/peace-colombia-government-guerrilla-environment">sustainable peace</a> requires healthy ecosystems and the sustainable management of natural resources.</p>
<p>Under president Juan Manuel Santos, the government has earmarked significant funding for international <a href="https://www.globalcommunities.org/node/37594">partnerships</a> in Montes de María and for environmental projects, particularly in the <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2017/06/new-highway-brings-deforestation-to-two-colombian-national-parks/">Amazon region</a>. </p>
<p>But one <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12199/full">study</a> recently confirmed what people here already knew: these top-down projects have largely failed to integrate communities and respond to local needs, limiting their sustainability and potential for knowledge-sharing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183378/original/file-20170824-24034-qtrctc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183378/original/file-20170824-24034-qtrctc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183378/original/file-20170824-24034-qtrctc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183378/original/file-20170824-24034-qtrctc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183378/original/file-20170824-24034-qtrctc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183378/original/file-20170824-24034-qtrctc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183378/original/file-20170824-24034-qtrctc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young farmers and media activists from Sembrando Paz at work in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.sembrandopaz.org/es/category/noticias/%22%20zoomable=%22true%22%20/>">Sembrando Paz</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In some ways, new environmental challenges seem as intractable as armed conflict, but community groups in Montes de María are <a href="http://www.proyectotiti.com/en-us/Communities-Cotton-tops">doubling down on conservation</a>, hoping to show Colombia a path forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82494/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juan Francisco Salazar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Colombia seeks to rebuild after fifty years of armed conflict, an emerging conservationist movement is linking lasting peace to healthy habitats.Juan Francisco Salazar, Associate Professor, School of Humanities and Communication Arts, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/807062017-08-24T06:16:30Z2017-08-24T06:16:30ZFacing disasters: lessons from a Bangladeshi island<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182414/original/file-20170817-13469-bh79fz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C469%2C1490%2C1065&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bangladesh is located in a river delta, making it both fertile and extremely vulnerable to disasters. In 2007, cyclone Sidr destroyed parts of this low-lying Bangladeshi island. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">UNU-EHS/Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The death toll of <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-international/bangladesh-flood-toll-rises/article19527505.ece">Bangladesh’s brutal monsoon season keeps growing</a>. Authorities estimate that flooding has killed at least 120 people and affected some 5 million others since mid-July.</p>
<p>Disasters are <a href="http://www.adrc.asia/nationinformation.php?NationCode=50&Lang=en&Mode=country">common in Bangladesh</a>. The fertile country is situated on the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta and irrigated by the Meghna river, which enables it to sustain a dense population but also exposes it to floods, cyclones and other hazards.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183191/original/file-20170823-13303-nca7jb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183191/original/file-20170823-13303-nca7jb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183191/original/file-20170823-13303-nca7jb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183191/original/file-20170823-13303-nca7jb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183191/original/file-20170823-13303-nca7jb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=945&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183191/original/file-20170823-13303-nca7jb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=945&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183191/original/file-20170823-13303-nca7jb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=945&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The many rivers of Bangladesh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamuna_River_(Bangladesh)#/media/File:Bangladesh_LOC_1996_map.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These days, <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-bangladeshi-woman-can-tell-you-how-real-climate-change-is-68212">climate change</a> is making such events both more frequent and more intense for Bangladeshis. Loss of life and property during the monsoon is a <a href="http://archive.unu.edu/unupress/sample-chapters/floods_in_Bangladesh_web.pdf">near-daily occurrence</a> in most parts of the country.</p>
<p>In a global effort to reduce such hazards, the United Nations has crafted the <a href="http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/43291">Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience</a>, a 15-year plan to reduce the human, social and economic impacts of disasters. </p>
<p>Adopted in 2015, this international strategy aims to help countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change prepare for the challenges they face. However, as our <a href="https://ehs.unu.edu/research/gibika.html#outline">research</a> in Bangladesh reveals, critical knowledge gaps remain. Though there are systems to warn people about impending hazards, officials have found that they do not necessarily evacuate before danger arrives. </p>
<p>Our ongoing <a href="http://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/50093">study</a>, which began in 2013, offers some insight into their reasoning.</p>
<h2>Life on Mazer Char</h2>
<p>In examining evacuation behaviour and decision-making in the face of environmental threats to Bangladesh, it quickly becomes clear how important it is for climate-change adaptation plans to include local inputs. Talking to the people about their experiences and perceptions of disaster risks can uncover unexpected views. </p>
<p>One study site from our nationwide research painfully demonstrates this point: Mazer Char, a delta island in Pirojpur district, is located about 330 kilometres southwest of Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital. When I arrived there with <a href="http://www.icccad.net/gibika/">my research team</a>, curious residents greeted us, asking why we had we chosen to study their island. </p>
<p>As we began to explain our research subject, they instantly started connecting it with their own struggles. </p>
<p>On Mazer Char, the land is rich in vegetation and the waters are full of fish. Most residents of the forest-covered island, which is home to about 800 people spread across 180 households, make a living from fishing and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-016-0379-z">livestock</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182415/original/file-20170817-13433-1009cdh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182415/original/file-20170817-13433-1009cdh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182415/original/file-20170817-13433-1009cdh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182415/original/file-20170817-13433-1009cdh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182415/original/file-20170817-13433-1009cdh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182415/original/file-20170817-13433-1009cdh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182415/original/file-20170817-13433-1009cdh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A piece of land ripped off the island of Mazer Char by the river.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">UNU-EHS/Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When disasters hit this low-lying island, they hit hard. “Four people died in this village during Sidr”, a 2007 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Sidr#cite_note-toll-4">cyclone that killed about 10,000 people</a> across the country, one woman told me. At that moment, a man passed by, carrying wood for his kitchen stove. “He lost his wife”, she whispered.</p>
<p>The man overheard the exchange. He invited us to his house later that day to tell us his story, which is captured in the video below.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dIekNZmWJT4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Nurmia recounts the story of cyclone Sidr, which hit his island in 2007 (UNU-EHS/Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson).</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Nurmia’s story</h2>
<p>When we arrived the man, Nurmia, welcomed us. We sat down on the bamboo carpet. “I was born about 70 years ago”, he said, on the mainland, in a place called Ogolbadi. Nurmia left home after a dispute with his brothers over the family’s land, so he crossed the river to Mazer Char, hoping to build a new life.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182417/original/file-20170817-13487-1wllwrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182417/original/file-20170817-13487-1wllwrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182417/original/file-20170817-13487-1wllwrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182417/original/file-20170817-13487-1wllwrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182417/original/file-20170817-13487-1wllwrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182417/original/file-20170817-13487-1wllwrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182417/original/file-20170817-13487-1wllwrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nurmia’s family lost most of its land to riverbank erosion, leaving him without a home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">UNU-EHS/Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nurmia spends most of his time fishing, though because his boat is currently broken, he hasn’t been out on the water for a while.</p>
<p>“The wood here on the island is not very good, so I end up repairing it every year”, he sighed, adding that in the meantime he has been net fishing from the shore to put food on the table.</p>
<p>Nurmia then recounted the November night when Cyclone Sidr struck the island.</p>
<h2>Riding out the storm</h2>
<p>Although the residents of Mazer Char were warned about the cyclone approaching, Nurmia did not evacuate, nor did many other islanders, who could not bear to leave their homes and belongings behind.</p>
<p>People face complex and careful considerations in deciding whether to stay or to go during a cyclone. Some may want to evacuate but lack the financial means to do so, or feel constrained to simply abandon everything they own.</p>
<p>That was the case with Nurmia’s family. At the time, they had saved enough money to send their eldest son to Saudi Arabia for work. Sidr changed all of that. That night in 2007, the cyclone took nearly all of Nurmia’s possessions, and claimed the life of his wife.</p>
<p>Nurmia explained to us how riding out a cyclone at home can be much more costly than dropping everything and evacuating to a shelter. “We survived the cyclone once and this is what it taught us,” he concluded.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182416/original/file-20170817-13450-udr2od.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182416/original/file-20170817-13450-udr2od.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182416/original/file-20170817-13450-udr2od.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182416/original/file-20170817-13450-udr2od.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182416/original/file-20170817-13450-udr2od.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182416/original/file-20170817-13450-udr2od.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182416/original/file-20170817-13450-udr2od.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Radios and flag signals are critical weather-prediction and early-warning tools for residents of Mazer Char.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">UNU-EHS/Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Life and death decisions</h2>
<p>For researchers, Nurmia’s tale offers other lessons, too, which is that there is no right way to face a disaster. People dealing with environmental shocks in Bangladesh confront an impossible reality and a set of unthinkable choices.</p>
<p>Climate action strategies are a crucial tool to support populations living under extremely vulnerable circumstances. Yet it is our assessment that for such policies to be effective, closer attention must be paid to the differing local approaches that people take to climatic risk.</p>
<p>Some people are simply more vulnerable to disasters than others. While certain families may be able to afford to leave everything behind, the survival of others depends on their homes, livestock or property. To save their livelihoods, they may put their lives in danger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson works for UNU-EHS and is a PhD candidate at the University of Sussex.
The Gibika project, a research to action collaboration between Munich Re Foundation, United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security and International Centre for Climate Change and Development, receives funding from Munich Re Foundation. </span></em></p>Why don’t people evacuate their homes when warned of impending storm danger? To save lives, resiliency plans must understand how locals in climate-vulnerable places assess risk.Dr Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, PhD candidate, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/818682017-08-17T06:25:46Z2017-08-17T06:25:46ZHow to live with bears<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182204/original/file-20170816-32606-k6tm1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The return of European brown bears to the Alps means that humans must learn about cohabitation.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/fr/europ%C3%A9enne-de-l-ours-brun-l-eau-2186748/">Alexas Fotos/Pixabay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bears have been on Europeans’ minds lately, as violent encounters with these powerful mammals make international headlines. </p>
<p>In late July, <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/hero-dog-saves-owner-bear-mauling-alps-1632052">an encounter in the Italian Alps between a female bear</a>, 14-year-old Kj2, a man and his dog ended with the man being hospitalised. A few weeks later, Kj2 was killed upon order of the provincial administration. Around the same time, in the French Pyrenees, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/23/bear-chases-200-sheep-over-cliff-edge-france-spain">a bear startled a flock of sheep</a> and drove them to their death at the bottom of a cliff. </p>
<p>The increasing number of confrontations with bears is not coincidental. <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/conservation/species/carnivores/pdf/life_and_human_coexistence_with_large_carnivores.pdf">Like other large predators</a>, bears have been reintroduced all over Europe since at least the early 1990s, thanks <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/publications/lifepublications/lifefocus/documents/reintroduction.pdf">to European Union-funded wildlife programmes</a>.</p>
<p>Local communities, politicians, and some in the media have started to use these incidents to push for not just the removal of the culprits but for an overhaul of these decades-old programmes. There are calls to allow people to once again hunt bears, though these remain <a href="http://www.banc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ECOS-35-1-44-What-future-for-Bears-in-Western-Europe.pdf">a critically endangered species in western Europe</a>.</p>
<p>As I explain in a recent essay on the conservation of bears of the Italian Alps, published in a book I co-edited, <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Nature-State-Rethinking-the-History-of-Conservation/Hardenberg-Kelly-Leal-Wakild/p/book/9781138719040">The Nature State. Rethinking the History of Conservation</a> (Routledge, 2017), the issue here is biosecurity. The state must be able to guarantee local communities personal and economic safety while also defending the right of iconic species to roam areas that were once their historical ranges. </p>
<p>This is proving a tricky balance.</p>
<h2>To hunt or to preserve?</h2>
<p>Until the early twentieth century, governments in both Austria and Italy sided with local communities, awarding <a href="https://orso.provincia.tn.it/content/download/12826/229854/version/1/file/tesi_MariaCalabrese.pdf">monetary prizes for every bear killed in a hunt</a>. In this system, all the risks of cohabitation were essentially borne by the bears. </p>
<p>Over the last century, as Alpine landscapes have undergone radical changes, the areas available to bears shrank markedly. The combination of habitat change with a state policy aimed at species extermination proved very effective in reducing the presence of bears in the Alps. <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/3872571">By the end of the 1930s</a>, most Alpine bear colonies had gone extinct. Small populations in Slovenia and northeastern Italy were the only exceptions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182203/original/file-20170816-32682-12e1m3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182203/original/file-20170816-32682-12e1m3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182203/original/file-20170816-32682-12e1m3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182203/original/file-20170816-32682-12e1m3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182203/original/file-20170816-32682-12e1m3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182203/original/file-20170816-32682-12e1m3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182203/original/file-20170816-32682-12e1m3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bear hunting throughout Europe led to the species’ eradication in many areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hirschvogel_Bear_Hunt.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the conservation movement gained steam in the mid-twentieth century, there were attempts to preserve the remaining species, particularly in Italy. The Fascist regime declared a <a href="http://www.edizionieuropee.it/LAW/HTML/3/zn16_01_007.html">total ban on hunting in 1939</a>, and various plans were laid to create a nature reserve in the Alps of Trentino, in northen Italy. </p>
<p>In parallel, a complex system of monetary compensations granted herders at least some indemnification for possible bear attacks on sheep and cattle. In doing so, the state took over some of the risks of human cohabitation with bears.</p>
<p>But efforts to preserve the colony in Trentino proved useless: by the end of the 1980s, the residual population was deemed <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3872993">too small to guarantee reproduction</a>. Instead, bears from Slovenia were introduced there to ensure the continuity of bears in the mountains of Trentino. </p>
<p>Such reintroduction programmes caused local communities to lose trust in the state, perceiving it as taking sides in favour of conservationism and the bears.</p>
<h2>Bears and xenophobia</h2>
<p>Attacks like the one in late July and a 2014 <a href="http://www.environmentandsociety.org/arcadia/bears-are-back-life-ursus-translocation-project-trentino">incident, which led to the death of the bear Daniza</a>, have also seemed to awaken some politicians’ baser instincts. Following each violent ursine encounter – which, if frightening, are still infrequent – some have adopted nearly the same xenophobic discourse they employ criticising European migration policies. </p>
<p>The bears of Trentino are represented as foreign and dangerous, alien to the territory they inhabit. Citizens are called to assert control over “their homeland”, reclaiming it from the bears that politicians of opposing factions have helped to reintroduce and after centuries of wilful destruction. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182286/original/file-20170816-10024-1hzalbo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182286/original/file-20170816-10024-1hzalbo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182286/original/file-20170816-10024-1hzalbo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182286/original/file-20170816-10024-1hzalbo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182286/original/file-20170816-10024-1hzalbo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182286/original/file-20170816-10024-1hzalbo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182286/original/file-20170816-10024-1hzalbo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">European brown bears reintroduced in the Alps are victims of xenophobic sentiments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/08/05/14/12/european-brown-bear-1572339_960_720.jpg">Pixabay</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It may well be that the female Kj2, who was killed after putting a man in the hospital, was dangerous. Yet from some accounts, it seems Kj2 may have simply been acting in self-defence from a scared and stick-wielding human and his dog. </p>
<p>Either way, she could likely have just been relocated to a safer area, which would have appeased fearful locals and returned the debate about cohabitation with bears to a less confrontational level. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thelocal.it/20170814/death-of-brown-bear-killed-in-northern-italy-enrages-activists">As numerous conservationists and animal rights activists have claimed</a>, shooting Kj2 for having exhibited the natural behaviour of a bear seems like a disproportionate response. Bear defenders have called for <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/14/tourists-boycott-dolomites-brown-bear-killed/">a tourist boycott of the region</a>. </p>
<h2>The importance of cohabitation</h2>
<p>Conflicts between humans and bears, or by proxy conflicts about bears between local communities and state authorities, aren’t recent history in Trentino. </p>
<p>Cohabitation has been the normal state of things in the Alps since well before reintroduction programmes began, and herders have been looking for ways to cope with the bear for over a century, adapting their strategies to changing state norms and legislation. Bear attacks are only most recent manifestation of an interspecies conflict about access and resources use that has always occurred in this rural region. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182205/original/file-20170816-32682-1ililhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/182205/original/file-20170816-32682-1ililhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182205/original/file-20170816-32682-1ililhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182205/original/file-20170816-32682-1ililhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182205/original/file-20170816-32682-1ililhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182205/original/file-20170816-32682-1ililhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/182205/original/file-20170816-32682-1ililhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=651&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Humans can live peacefully with real bears, too.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/fr/enfant-personne-humain-fille-teddy-830725/">Pezibear/Pixaby</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But, over the centuries, as populations of great predators greatly diminished in number, so, too, has our tolerance for risks. Decades of perceived security have made modern sheep herding, for example, unfit for proximity to bears.</p>
<p>There is no way to end conflicts and encounters, but it is possible to reduce their impact. Establishing clear rules on what humans are allowed to do and <a href="http://dinalpbear.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/LEAFLET-How-to-behave-in-bear-areas-ENGLISH.pdf">how they are supposed to behave</a> in areas frequented by bears (and defining where these areas are located) would be a good start. Wielding sticks, approach cubs and letting dogs off-leash would definitely not be included in such guidelines.</p>
<p>The costs and risks of cohabitation need to be more fairly redistributed among all the actors, from tourists and herders to the municipality and provincial government and, yes, the bears, too. Because the Alps still deserve their bears, and the bears still deserve their Alps.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81868/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wilko Graf von Hardenberg received post-doctoral funding from the Autonomous Province of Trento. </span></em></p>Bear-man conflicts have made news in the Alps but history tells a story of a possible cohabitation.Wilko Graf von Hardenberg, Senior Research Scholar, Max Planck Institute for the History of ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/777292017-07-25T06:09:51Z2017-07-25T06:09:51ZIn Philippines, climate change and conflict both conspire against rural women<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179091/original/file-20170720-2359-z7esw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme weather and conflict have a particularly accute impact on female farmers in the Philippines.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/45005153@N07/15356293527/in/photolist-aFVzX6-qbjnKx-d2otw7-FCUeSH-pripqq-oJyRLL-bBcqoa-a6P9WQ-bBcqo2-bBcqog-bBcqov-poZ24v-poZ1Qe-a6PbPh-QvvmV3-bBcqop-bERgnK-bNbzJz-DK5a1X-nNFS36">PWRDF</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Heavily exposed to increasing incidence of extreme weather events, the Philippines is among <a href="https://germanwatch.org/fr/download/13503.pdf">one of the countries most vulnerable</a> to climate change in the world. </p>
<p>Climate-induced disasters in the Philippines frequently <a href="http://books.irri.org/DPS49_content.pdf">disrupt fruit and cash-crop production</a>, resulting in income loss and higher food prices. Over the past four years, weather events have cost the Philippine economy an annual average of <a href="http://www.fao.org/in-action/planting-the-seeds-of-recovery-in-the-philippines-after-typhoon-haiyan/en/">0.3% of GDP</a>. </p>
<p>Typhoon Haiyaan alone caused crop loss of 1.1 million tonnes and destroyed 600,000 hectares of farmland in 2013, costing the Filipino agriculture industry and small farmers an estimated <a href="http://www.fao.org/in-action/planting-the-seeds-of-recovery-in-the-philippines-after-typhoon-haiyan/en/">US$724 million</a>. </p>
<h1>Migration as a coping strategy for women</h1>
<p>Losses in rural areas, especially where there’s ongoing armed conflict, are not just financial. Across the world, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-affects-international-human-conflict-and-violence-16666">climate and conflict are deeply intertwined</a> and their negative effects mutually reinforcing. </p>
<p>In the Philippines, this relationship is evident in <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17038024">Mindanao</a>, a farming community on the country’s southernmost island. Despite peace efforts to end over 40 years of social and ethnic conflict there, hostilities remain. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0743016716307392">research</a> conducted by the University of Queensland and Oxfam, the violence has particularly marginalised women, from female farmers to the widows of those killed in combat. In parallel, the area has also seen an <a href="http://dilg.gov.ph/PDF_File/reports_resources/DILG-Resources-2012130-2ef223f591.pdf">increase in both typhoons and droughts</a> over the past decade. </p>
<p>Conflict and extreme weather have triggered social and economic upheaval in Mindanao in recent years. Studies show that a 1°C increase in growing season night-time temperature in the Philippines can cause a loss of <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.full">rice yield and biomass by 10%</a>. </p>
<p>Facing limited land availability and persistent poverty, agricultural productivity in Mindanao undergoing long periods of low production and <a href="https://ucanr.edu/blogs/food2025/blogfiles/14415.pdf">food insecurity</a> is on the rise. </p>
<p>Because young women, wives and widows can find <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezproxy.library.uq.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0743016716307392">seasonal employment in urban areas</a> more easily the men, many women find themselves compelled to leave the area in quest of jobs that can help stabilise family income and mitigate poverty. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179090/original/file-20170720-24017-yioms0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179090/original/file-20170720-24017-yioms0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179090/original/file-20170720-24017-yioms0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179090/original/file-20170720-24017-yioms0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179090/original/file-20170720-24017-yioms0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179090/original/file-20170720-24017-yioms0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179090/original/file-20170720-24017-yioms0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some women are forced by conflict and drought to migrate to cities seeking work.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/beegee49/35066557965/in/photolist-VqHgYZ-VY4EEu-9wseoC-7EopPJ-9wsj8q-SC99FB-9wsjo3-9wsgQ1-b5TmCF-vgCED4-9wsfoS-UpqCMS-s9vR6k-2wMUrx-9wsiPf-9wckoU-TY5yxB-nLvBjD-6DzoKy-hK7Hw2-5ZzWFe-piFkj-8H5Nuh-kJY2G-6cvXfU-saeLz-ge4rP-9wpjip-RJ1S87-rxsnP2-rPUPJB-9vxqkQ-rneMFT-drCVg5-ndjZv8-pGs59-rxcEzT-9wsg8b-rcroaT-SV4zaZ-4kA9az-nGfNZ3-29t69x-RCAM69-rxDaaJ-Xjcjt-5iiMAo-anYm6G-xPxjHW-9wcjWo">Brian Evans</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The outcomes are not always positive. In times of conflict and disasters, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/gender-and-livelihoods-among-internally-displaced-persons-in-mindanao-philippines/">women and children are particularly susceptible to trafficking</a>, sexual abuse, prostitution and what locals in areas facing scarcity call <em>isang gabi, isang salop</em>, exchanging sexual favours for food.</p>
<p>In Mindanao and elsewhere in southern Philippines, the transit and trade of underage girls and young Filipino children for the purpose of sexual exploitation, forced labour and use as human shields is on the rise, with an estimated <a href="http://www.diplomaticourier.com/human-trafficking-inthe-philippines-a-blemish-on-economic-growth/">60,000 to 100,000 children linked to commercial sex exploitation</a>.</p>
<h2>Non-economic loss and damage from climate change</h2>
<p>Female migration is just one of many coping mechanisms that rural Filipinos employ to adapt to the effects of their changing climate.</p>
<p>When faced with prolonged droughts or typhoons, farmers in Mindanao also <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0743016716307392">make difficult choices</a>, such as skipping meals, selling livestock and taking out loans. Many families decide to restrict consumption of food by adults in favour of feeding small children and the elderly.</p>
<p>As the chair of the <a href="http://thecvf.org/">Climate Vulnerable Forum</a>, the Philippines has pushed international partners to develop mechanisms that would address the kind of <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2013/tp/02.pdf">non-economic loss and damage</a> that can result from climate change. </p>
<p>There is now growing acceptance that extreme weather does not just impact tangible economic products that are traded on the market but also affects other, less tangible goods.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179089/original/file-20170720-2359-14iit4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179089/original/file-20170720-2359-14iit4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179089/original/file-20170720-2359-14iit4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179089/original/file-20170720-2359-14iit4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179089/original/file-20170720-2359-14iit4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179089/original/file-20170720-2359-14iit4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179089/original/file-20170720-2359-14iit4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flash floods hit the Philippines in 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/eu_echo/6975637173/in/photolist-bCpXUr-bCpXYg-bpv3c5-bCpY6p-nxUUuB-bCpXJ2-nxDXWo-daUW8w-TTFs2w-nxBJ8p-brtYJB-bV8AhN-ngq2yx-bV8vM1-6SH2nf-eQ5ecQ-2QdPDM-bpv397-nxDWuA-nmEEVt-ngq18M-bV8wsG-bV8Rh9-UnNPwn-cwEYs1-b7JgBc-bV8JpE-bV8TE3-EXJHrj-bV8u7E-cLtrWw-bV8HxY-bV8LrW-bV8M6S-bV8Qff-bV8vhQ-bV8yf7-upveoT-7QGrRN-5zQvE2-bV8NcQ-5zUGFE-bV8S2j-5zQu6K-5zUJxo-9cp9LC-bj9xzp-UCpjis-6vPAd9-UkxzAr">Mathias Eick EU/ECHO</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recurring crop failures, for instance, have forced farmers into <a href="http://www.refworld.org/pdfid/48abc1f72.pdf">long-term lease arrangements</a> and agreements with the private sector and traders, often at exorbitant interest rates. Other farmers have seen themselves compelled to give up their land, abandoning farming entirely and moving to the city. </p>
<p>In Mindanao, people told the University of Queensland and Oxfam researchers that they now associate annual extreme climatic events with the loss of belongings, death of family members, increased hardship, famine and hunger and loss of livelihood and income.</p>
<p>For women, these community-level concerns are compounded by the specific risks they face during seasonal migration to cities. Fear and psychological distress are a growing presence in their lives.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0743016716307392?via%3Dihub">research findings</a>, all of these climate- and conflict-related changes have fundamentally shifted values, lifestyles and gender relations in Mindanao. Such social and cultural loss often goes unnoticed or unaddressed in climate change policies and disaster assessments. </p>
<h2>Focus on gender</h2>
<p>To help rural communities in the Philippines adapt to climate change and mitigate its negative effects, aid and development efforts should focus on improving the lot of women, particularly female combatants, widows and poor female smallholder farmers, many of whom face land-tenure problems.</p>
<p>That means stabilising the agricultural sector and fostering agricultural investments, which in conflict-prone parts of rural Philippines cannot be done without accompanying <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13439006.2016.1254364">long-term peace and reconciliation processes</a>.</p>
<p>Given the local sociocultural issues that must be navigated, the national government is likely better positioned than international aid agencies to spearhead programs that would link peace, security and reconciliation programs to <a href="http://www.iro.ph/article_doc/fc55bc53_PDP-2017-2022-Prepublication-2.pdf">agriculture and economic reforms</a>.</p>
<p>It is the national government, too, that must integrate risk-transfer mechanisms, such as weather-index insurance policies, into the Phillipines’ existing public safety nets, subsidies and compensation schemes. </p>
<p>NGOs and international organisations do have a role in breaking the cycle of conflict, climate and gender inequality in Philippines. Access to <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-microlending-reduces-extreme-poverty-78088">micro-credit</a> can play an important role in refinancing rural farming activities after disasters, and there’s some evidence that such programs <a href="https://theconversation.com/universal-basic-income-could-work-in-southeast-asia-but-only-if-it-goes-to-women-74610">work particularly well to build community resilience when they’re aimed at women</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77729/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alvin Chandra receives funding from the Australian Government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen E McNamara does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Conflict and poverty further deepen the impacts of climate change, resulting widening income inequality between women and men.Alvin Chandra, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/811212017-07-20T06:18:27Z2017-07-20T06:18:27ZWildfires are raging in the Mediterranean. What can we learn?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178616/original/file-20170718-21994-s93py0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Forest fires are a key part of the lifecycle of the woods, but they can also be deadly.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eduard Plana</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Italy, firefighters across the country are battling <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-wildfire-idUSKBN1A220M">hundreds of wildfires</a>, the flames fanned by a combination of heat and drought.</p>
<p>This is just the latest in a succession of fires in the Mediterranean. In June, forest fires in Portugal <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/22/portugal-forest-fires-under-control">killed 64 people</a> in Pedrógão Grande, in the Leira district, and immediately afterwards <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/25/spain-forest-fire-forces-more-than-1500-from-homes-and-campsites">Spanish forests</a> went up in flames, forcing the evacuation of more than 1,500 people from homes and campsites.</p>
<p>Fires are expected in the summer, but they don’t usually have such severe consequences. These incidents highlight the need to rethink how landscapes can be managed to protect people and sustain ecosystems when the region’s climate and population are rapidly changing.</p>
<h2>Reforestation</h2>
<p>Today, <a href="https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v515/n7525/abs/nature13946.html">even areas with a long evolutionary history of fire</a>, including the Mediterranean, southern Australia and western United States, are seeing higher risks of fire, a change associated with a warming climate and the <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/18/4582">growing number of people who live</a> near densely forested landscapes. </p>
<p>It’s not that southern Europeans are moving to the forest – quite the opposite, in fact. Across the Mediterranean, decades of economic and social changes have led to rural depopulation as people move to larger cities. </p>
<p>In 1950, almost 50% of the Spanish population lived in rural areas. By 1990, that figure <a href="http://www.adeh.org/?q=es/contenido/peaceful-surrender-depopulation-rural-spain-twentieth-century">had fallen by more than 25%</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, landscapes that previously comprised small-scale mosaics of farmland, grazing land and relatively open forests are now <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479711002258">dominated by young, dense forests</a>. As an example, see the images below of the same Spanish landscape in the 1900s and today.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178484/original/file-20170717-6091-1xjfszt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pont de la Frau, Solsona County in Central Catalonia, in northwestern Spain, in the mid-1900s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Solsonés County Counsil</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178485/original/file-20170717-6091-4vyb6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pont de la Frau in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marc Font</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-links-portugals-deadliest-wildfire-to-grenfell-tower-economics-and-neglect-79815">Forest plantations</a>, grown for profit and to protect soil, can also increase fire risk when they are stressed by drier conditions.</p>
<p>So how can modern Mediterranean landscapes, with their ever-higher fuel loads, reduce the adverse effects of fires? </p>
<h2>Unfuelling the fire</h2>
<p><a href="http://firefficient.ctfc.cat/images/book_guidelines.pdf">Integrative strategies</a> that take into account the various social, economic and ecological factors of fire offer possible solutions for both rural and urban landscapes.</p>
<p><a href="http://efirecom.ctfc.cat/docs/revistaefirecom_en.pdf">Fire suppression</a> – involving the sophisticated use of firefighting vehicles to suppress fires soon after they start – is the most common form of fire management in Mediterranean ecosystems.</p>
<p>Suppression is an important way of keeping people and homes safe, but its success has a negative flipside: it <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479711002258">leads vegetation to accumulate</a>, increasing the risk of future adverse fires over large swathes of territory.</p>
<p>To manage this vegetation and leaf litter, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/120298/abstract">prescribed burning</a>, which reduces or breaks up the connectivity of this fuel, is becoming more common in southern Europe.</p>
<p>This option will be more effective in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10021-016-0010-2">some areas</a> than <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF14034">others</a>. Fires are not only controlled by fuels but also by interactions with climate, topography and local conditions. </p>
<p>For example, recent work suggests that prescribed burning is more likely to reduce unplanned fires <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF14034">in Portugal than in Spain</a>, perhaps because of the greater influence in Portugal of “bottom-up” drivers (such as fuel) than “top-down” drivers (climate, for instance, and weather). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178480/original/file-20170717-6091-13w0p2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Planned burning is undertaken in Albacete, in east-central Spain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carla Vilarasau, The Pau Costa Foundation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fuel management is particularly effective when it is <a href="http://firefficient.ctfc.cat/images/book_guidelines.pdf">prioritised at strategic management points</a> and in critical urban and rural areas near homes and other assets.</p>
<p>In rural areas specifically, linking fuel reduction efforts with forestry and agricultural practices that benefit local economies – promoting what’s called the <a href="http://www.efimed.efi.int/files/images/efimed/virtual_library/reflection_on_the_bioeconomy_1.pdf">bioeconomy</a> – provides opportunities for more effective management. </p>
<p>Among other examples, sustainable forestry practices can be used <a href="http://firefficient.ctfc.cat/images/book_guidelines.pdf">to develop more open areas with widely spaced trees</a>, which impedes the transmission of fire between adjacent trees. Such harvesting can also benefit local economies by creating jobs in forestry and energy production. </p>
<p>Grazing is another good way to reduce fuel loads in rural areas. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479711002258">France</a> is now integrating this traditional method into its fire management practices, and it is currently being piloted in <a href="http://lifemontserrat.eu/en/results/">Catalonia</a>, Spain.</p>
<p>Agriculture, too, can reduce the connectivity of forest fuels and reduce wildfire risk. The development of certain new crops, <a href="http://star-tree.eu/project">such as truffles and vineyards on previously abandoned landscapes</a>, could act as “<a href="https://theconversation.com/low-flammability-plants-could-help-our-homes-survive-bushfires-53870">green firebreaks</a>”, though scientists and land managers have only recently begun to explore this option. </p>
<h2>Involving local communities</h2>
<p>Educating <a href="http://efirecom.ctfc.cat/docs/RECOM%20ENGLISH_final.pdf">citizens about wildfires</a> is the necessary flipside of these prevention tactics to keep wildfires from becoming tragedies. </p>
<p>Talking to people about home safety, when to evacuate unsafe areas and when to shelter in place are essential steps that should be taken to minimise hazardous fire outcomes currently being seen across the Mediterranean.</p>
<p>This is best done through a participatory approach that puts local communities at the forefront. That is, stakeholders should be involved through the entire planning process (not just immediately before or after a fire event). </p>
<p>To get widespread social buy-in for fire management strageties, it’s key to bring together and <a href="http://firefficient.ctfc.cat/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/deliverable15_Wildfire-social-assesment-and-governance.pdf">empower decision-making groups made up of diverse stakeholders</a> from across society, from farmers and wildlife organisations to local business.</p>
<p>One case where this co-responsibility will prove helpful in the Mediterranean basin is in integrating wildfire risk into spatial planning of urban and rural areas. Decisions on where and how to <a href="http://efirecom.ctfc.cat/docs/FOREST%20FIRE%20RISK%20IN%20THE%20WILDLAND%20URBAN%20INTERFASE%20EFIRECOM%20PROJECT.pdf">build new homes</a> should be based on an informed view of fire risk, wherein all parties understand the reasoning behind those decisions.</p>
<h2>The benefits of fire</h2>
<p>Fire, of course, is not all bad. Many plants and animals depend on fires for their survival and the right kind of fire <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1264">can promote biodiversity</a>. </p>
<p>In Mediterranean ecosystems, some plants need fire to complete their life cycles, and others have adaptations, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nph.13644/pdf">such as thick bark or the capacity to resprout</a>, that aid recovery after fire.</p>
<p>Animals may also benefit from open areas created by fires. For instance, the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01467.x/abstract">ortolan bunting</a>, a farmland bird species that has declined across much of Europe, colonises and inhabits recently burnt areas.</p>
<p>But flora and fauna are not adapted to all kinds of fire regimes, so effective <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12861/abstract">biodiversity conservation</a> depends on deep knowledge of how the temporal and spatial arrangement of fires <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12767/full">influence species</a>.</p>
<p>This same understanding of how plants, animals, fires and other processes interact is also key to <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0062392">predicting when and where future fires might occur</a> under a changing climate. Today, data and models of <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216307563">fire spread</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10342-016-0943-1">occurrence</a> can be used to <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v515/n7525/abs/nature13946.html">map fire hazards</a> and consider how they might influence people.</p>
<p>It is not possible to eliminate fire risk completely. But more holistic strategies that incorporate the particular social, economic and ecological factors present in the various fire-impacted areas of the Mediterranean would go a long way to protect people and sustain ecosystems in the face of rapid climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Kelly receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Victorian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eduard Plana Bach receives funding from Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Font Bernet receives funding from Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia. </span></em></p>Italy, Portugal and Spain have all gone up in flames in recent weeks, highlighting the need to rethink how Mediterranean countries protect people and save ecosystems.Luke Kelly, Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneEduard Plana Bach, Head of Unit of Forest Policy and Environmental Governance, Forest Sciences Centre of CataloniaMarc Font Bernet, Researcher in the Forest Sciences Centre of CataloniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/803472017-07-12T06:20:25Z2017-07-12T06:20:25ZRising sea temperatures will hit fisheries and communities in poor countries the hardest<p>Despite having some of the world’s smallest carbon footprints, small island developing states and the world’s least-developed countries will be among the places most vulnerable to climate change’s impacts on marine life, <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0179632">new research</a> shows.</p>
<p>Using new data and drawing on the methodology of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, we ranked 147 nations’ vulnerability to climate change. This included projecting various climate scenarios over different time frames to determine how changing oceanic conditions may affect the abundance and distribution of fish in the ocean.</p>
<p>The whole suite of climate scenarios – optimistic and pessimistic, near-future and distant-future – shared one thing: the same countries appear at the top and bottom of the index. </p>
<p>Small island developing states such as Kiribati, the Solomon Islands and the Maldives, are consistently ranked among the most vulnerable countries, while highly industrialised states, such as New Zealand and Ireland, are poised to fare much better. </p>
<h2>Oceans as a global challenge</h2>
<p>Our research confirms the importance of the United Nations’ <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg14">Sustainable Development Goal #14</a>, which includes a target of increasing by 2030 the “economic benefits to [small island developing states] and [least-developed countries] from the sustainable use of marine resources”. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/CONF.230/11&Lang=E">outcome document</a> of the <a href="http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2017/06/our-ocean-our-future-call-for-action/">UN Oceans Conference</a>, which took place in early June, similarly emphasised the importance of supporting these vulnerable places. <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/sea2056.doc.htm">It concluded</a> that the “well-being of present and future generations is inextricably linked to the health and productivity of our ocean.” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"872719867023175680"}"></div></p>
<p>Even in the most optimistic future scenario of our study – one in which global carbon emissions are rapidly slashed and mitigation efforts spread around the world – sea surface temperatures are expected to increase substantially by the end of the century, across large swathes of the ocean.</p>
<p>Such temperature increases could fundamentally alter ocean ecosystems, changing the distribution and abundance of fish stocks and altering their migratory paths. If, as a result, fish head into new national waters, it could spark international conflict. </p>
<p>The impacts look even more severe in our pessimistic, business-as-usual scenario (see below).</p>
<h2>Local impact, global problem</h2>
<p>All fisheries are not created equal, and fish take on different importance in different places. Global pressures therefore translate into very different challenges at local levels. </p>
<p>In many low-income communities, including those on small-island developing states such as Kiribati or the Maldives, fish are a crucial source of protein and micronutrients. Tiny quantities of micronutrients (zinc, iron, omega-3 fatty acids) are <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-bangladesh-people-are-eating-more-fish-but-getting-less-nutrition-from-it-75458">crucial for normal brain development</a> in infants, and can have long-term impacts on human health. </p>
<p><a href="http://jn.nutrition.org/content/133/11/3992S.full">A controlled study</a> in Malawi, for instance, found reduced instances of anaemia and common infections and other positive health impacts among children with diets supplemented by micronutrient-rich fish. Subtracting fish from the diets of coastal communities with few nutritional alternatives then <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/nutrition-fall-in-fish-catch-threatens-human-health-1.20074">could generate a decades-long public health crisis</a>. </p>
<p>In most coastal communities, fishing is not only an important source of nutrition but also of economic security. In small-island developing states and least-developed countries, alternative livelihood options may be limited. </p>
<p>Our index therefore takes account of socioeconomic variables, including the proportion of the working population involved in fisheries and how much fish protein is in people’s diets, to rank the impacts of climate change on fisheries. </p>
<h2>Some good news</h2>
<p>The resulting vulnerability index examines three key factors in how climate change impacts fisheries: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. </p>
<p>We find that exposure and sensitivity to climate changes are distributed somewhat evenly across the regions of the world, and that achieving swift reductions to either of these factors will be tough. </p>
<p>Exposure is directly linked to global greenhouse gas emissions, so changing exposure levels means making global progress toward cutting emissions – over a long period of time. Likewise, sensitivity to environmental damage is hard to mitigate because it is inextricably linked with national contexts, such as diets, employment sectors and the like. </p>
<p>Adaptive capacity, however, varies from place to place, with the highest levels recorded in Japan, the United States and Norway, while Sudan, Benin and Sierra Leone ranked the worst. </p>
<p>This may seem like more bad news, but it’s actually a silver lining: we can certainly improve communities’ ability to effectively respond to emerging risks because adaptive capacity can be influenced immediately, and at any level, from the household to the village. </p>
<p>y making efforts to diversify livelihoods, increase literacy, and raise awareness about how to manage fisheries under conditions of change or uncertainty, governments and international organisations can better prepare vulnerable communities for what’s coming their way.</p>
<p>Improving adaptive capacity doesn’t make changing exposure and sensitivity less important, of course. It is still critical that the world strive to meet the climate targets set out by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cities-rally-around-the-paris-deal-a-reminder-that-global-problems-can-have-local-solutions-79978">Paris agreement</a>. But focusing on adaptation offers a potential pathway for reducing vulnerability in the near term.</p>
<p>The consistency of vulnerability rankings across all of our scenarios is also something of a double-edged sword. On the one hand, some of the world’s poorest fishermen are going to face increasing hardship in coming years. But at least the international community now knows exactly what countries to prioritise for capacity-building partnerships and programs.</p>
<p>Now is the time to translate research into action. After all, their our oceans – and our future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Blasiak receives funding from the Nippon Foundation – University of British Columbia NEREUS Program, and this study was partially supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI grants 16K18743 and 24121010. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremy Pittman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new study finds that even in best-case scenarios, the fishing communities most hurt by climate change are on small island nations such as Kiribati, the Solomon Islands and the Maldives.Robert Blasiak, Research Fellow, Stockholm UniversityJeremy Pittman, Liber Ero Postdoctoral Fellow, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/804022017-07-11T06:31:04Z2017-07-11T06:31:04ZNew Delhi is running out of water<p>As summer temperatures soar above 40°C in New Delhi, <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/parched-delhi-water-crisis-jal-board-djb-dda-summer-city-struggles-to-get-enough-water-4667380">acute water shortages</a> are gripping parts of India’s capital. Signs of <a href="http://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/delhi-ranked-second-among-worlds-most-waterstressed-cities-45456">water stress</a> are now everywhere, and residents in southern and western parts of the city have not received a regular, reliable water supply for months.</p>
<p>Water shortages are becoming something of an annual ritual in Delhi, the world’s <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/publications/files/wup2014-highlights.Pdf">second most populous city</a>. By 2030, it is estimated <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/publications/files/wup2014-highlights.Pdf">to grow by 11 million, from 14 million residents to 25 million</a> – a megacity atop a megacity. </p>
<p>Without any changes in the city’s water management policies, the prospect of all those urban residents having access to water is grim.</p>
<h2>Unsustainable water policies</h2>
<p>Delhi’s current water policy, instituted by the ruling left-wing Aam Admi Party in 2015, promises <a href="http://www.delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/74fc0a8049fb1e4f84afcee4899821f2/Tariff+14.08.2015.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&lmod=-820044332&CACHEID=74fc0a8049fb1e4f84afcee4899821f2">20,000 litres of free water per household per month</a>. Assuming a household has five members, this means some 130 litres per capita per day should be available every day.</p>
<p>This plan is hampered by several basic problems. First and foremost, the city does not actually have enough water to make it happen, nor does it have enough money to give all this water away for free. Currently, some neighbourhoods have access to water just <a href="http://www.safewaternetwork.org/sites/default/files/Safe%20Water%20Network_Delhi%20City%20Report.PDF">one to two hours a day</a></p>
<p>Reliable data on individual consumption is not available, as numerous households in Delhi still lack functional meters, but leakage, thefts and losses also reduce the available water supply. </p>
<p>In 2016, the Delhi Jal Board (the hindi word <em>jal</em> means water), which is responsible for the city’s drinking and waste water management, estimated total distribution <a href="http://delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/d624c0004054d4aabea4fea1527a7156/ch-13.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&lmod=-888712437&CACHEID=d624c0004054d4aabea4fea1527a7156">losses of around 40%</a>. Many cities in both the developed and developing world have losses in the 4% to 20% range. </p>
<p>As a result, Delhi must actually produce daily 182 litres per person for individuals to receive their allotted 130 litres.</p>
<p>Even this 130 litres target is flawed, because it’s arbitrary. A person can live a perfectly healthy life at around 75 lpcd. In many European cities, <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/drastic-action-needed-to-cut-water-use-here-world-water-day">including Malaga in Spain, and Leipzig in Germany</a>, per capita daily water consumption is 92 litres or less.</p>
<p>In Delhi, people in high-income households may consume up to a staggering <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/features/homes-and-gardens/how-much-water-does-an-urban-citizen-need/article4393634.ece">600 litres</a>. As the country’s <a href="https://ecell.in/eureka13/resources/tracking%20the%20growth%20of%20indian%20middle%20class.pdf">middle class continues to grow</a>, the need to build awareness of water as a scarce resource and instil conservation practices among the citizenry will grow more urgent.</p>
<h2>Neglecting natural resources</h2>
<p>Anyone who has ever lived in or travelled to Delhi during monsoon season, between June and September, can testify to its water-clogged roads and overflowing sewers. How can a place with so much rain suffer from serious water scarcity?</p>
<p>The answer is a basic one: mismanagement of resources. In the southern and <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/groundwater-table-dips-across-delhi/article6274363.ece">southwestern districts of the city</a>, which are particularly affected by both water shortages and flooding, harvesting rainwater holds particular potential. </p>
<p>In 1965, Singapore had water-management indicators similar to those of Delhi. Today, it reports that just <a href="https://www.pub.gov.sg/watersupply/unaccountedforwater">5% of its supply is unaccounted for</a>, thanks to significant <a href="http://www.eco-business.com/news/singapore-tokyo-among-top-ten-best-cities-urban-sustainability">water reuse, desalination, storm water storage and conservation efforts</a>.</p>
<p>Delhi has imposed <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-hc-upholds-rule-on-rainwater-harvesting-in-buildings-on-plots-500-sq-m-or-more-2826522">mandatory norms</a> for installing rainwater harvesting structures and created financial incentives. But because of a lack of oversight, these reforms have not lead to <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Rainwater-harvesting-remains-a-mirage/articleshow/52841649.cms">large-scale adoption of available technologies</a>. </p>
<p>Surface sources of clean water are admittedly limited as well; untreated waste water and industrial effluents are routinely discharged into Delhi’s water bodies. </p>
<p>The Yamuna River, near Delhi, is <a href="https://thewire.in/150756/ganga-water-project-agra/">an important source of drinking water</a> for downstream cities. But it has been an <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/pollution/yamuna-pollution-supreme-court-seeks-report-on-sewage-treatment-plants/articleshow/57257387.cms">open sewer for decades</a>.</p>
<p>According to estimates of Central Pollution Control Board, every day, almost 40% of untreated sewage from Delhi either seeps into the ground or <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-bio-toilets-solve-indias-sanitation-problems-and-save-the-yamuna-river-67727">is discharged into the Yamuna River</a>. The fact that other sources report this figure <a href="http://www.dnaindia.com/delhi/report-60-of-sewage-remains-untreated-in-delhi-2070947">at 60%</a> is telling: wastewater-treatment facilities are not only lacking – they are abysmally poorly managed. </p>
<p>Ill-planned housing projects and an ever-expanding number of <a href="http://www.delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/f91b008046c5ef03bddbfd7d994b04ce/water+policy_21112016.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&lmod=604996771">private water pumps</a>, installed by households, industries and companies that wish to ensure an uninterrupted personal water supply, have also severely damaged groundwater tables.</p>
<p>The myriad of institutional challenges facing Delhi’s water board exacerbate these supply- and management-side issues. </p>
<p>First, the Delhi Jal Board’s chief executive is always an Indian administrative service officer, a high-ranking civil servant likely to be transferred at any moment to another position. The average job tenure of 18 to 30 months does not favour effective performance or strategic planning. In this short time, a CEO must learn all about water, gain a complete understanding of the city’s existing programs and infrastructure and, ideally, conceive of executable initiatives to upgrade the system. </p>
<p>To fulfil such gargantuan tasks satisfactorily and develop a strategic plan for the future, a term of six to eight years would be more reasonable.</p>
<p>Nor do the corrupt practices of many water board staffers help. <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/DJB-suspends-14-engineers-for-corruption/articleshow/29021662.cms">In 2015, for example, engineers and officers</a> from the board were suspended for cheating and forgery regarding water equipment. This does not help the organisation’s functioning or credibility among residents.</p>
<h2>Making Delhi sustainable</h2>
<p>Here’s the good news: for the first time in at least two decades, the Delhi Jal Board seems to have competent and effective leadership. <a href="http://www.dnaindia.com/delhi/report-delhi-jal-board-introduces-water-atms-in-capital-2428111">A few water ATMs</a>, which dispense drinking water at a significantly cheaper price than bottled water, have been installed in a few locations across the city. </p>
<p>Thanks in part to aggressive social media advertising, these are gaining popularity among residents. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lUNob8TEjxo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Water ‘ATMS’ have been introduced in the capital since 2014 to mitigate water shortage.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458181400010X">concept of “constructed wetlands”</a> – a pilot <a href="http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/rashtrapati-bhawan-to-use-wetlands-to-treat-sewage/527966/">project proposed in 2009</a> which features an artificial marsh made of plants that absorb the impurities in water – has also been moved forward. The project aims to clean up an eight-kilometre stretch of <a href="http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/aap-delhi-drain-cleanup-yamuna-najafgarh-drain-israeli-firm-roped-in/1/877490.html">supplementary waste water drain</a> that, like most of Delhi’s waste water, dumps into the Yamuna river. </p>
<p>Other <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi-news/clean-up-plans-fail-in-muddy-yamuna-ngt-seeks-action/story-AtwS15hXrAzDmgynzqSRxH.html">programs to clean up the Yamuna have thus far failed</a>. If successfully completed, Delhi’s wetlands pilot may be replicable in the many other Indian cities facing water shortages <a href="https://theconversation.com/indias-wells-are-running-dry-fast-78372">thanks in part to polluted waterways</a>.</p>
<p>There is no intrinsic reason why Delhi residents could not have a reliable supply of water that can be drunk straight from the tap, 24 hours a day, without any health concerns or interruptions, within the decade. But it will take a lot of political work, from both within and beyond the Delhi Jal Board, to get there.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Access to clean and regular water remains a challenge for New Delhi, a city that could easily tackle its water crisis with greater effort.Asit K. Biswas, Distinguished Visiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of SingaporeCecilia Tortajada, Senior Research Fellow, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of SingaporeUdisha Saklani, Independent Policy Researcher, National University of SingaporeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/803032017-07-03T14:17:50Z2017-07-03T14:17:50ZClimate and the G20 summit: some progress in greening economies, but more needs to be done<p>On July 7, G20 leaders will gather in Hamburg for their annual meeting. One likely outcome: another clash over climate change between the host government, Germany, and United States president Donald Trump.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://oecdinsights.org/2016/09/06/assess-chinas-g20-presidency/">the Chinese did last year</a>, German Prime Minister Angela Merkel <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/germany-makes-climate-action-key-focus-of-g20-presidency/">has prioritised climate on the G20 agenda</a>, just when the US administration is rolling back many environmental policies. </p>
<p>President Trump has announced that he wants his country to <a href="https://theconversation.com/cities-rally-around-the-paris-deal-a-reminder-that-global-problems-can-have-local-solutions-79978">leave the Paris agreement</a>, saying that the international accord is <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/01/statement-president-trump-paris-climate-accord">unfair to the US</a>.</p>
<h2>A report to evaluate progress</h2>
<p>The question of what is fair in climate politics is hugely important.</p>
<p>Trump’s definition of fairness – “America First” – is probably not mutually acceptable to most other nations. But countries will hesitate to scale up their ambitions unless they are convinced that others are doing their fair share.</p>
<p>To address this question, we have put together our third annual stocktake on their progress in a report – coordinated by the global consortium Climate Transparency – that determines <a href="http://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2017">how far the G20 has come</a> in shifting from fossil fuels to a low-carbon economy. </p>
<p>The report, compiled with 13 partners from 11 countries, draws on a wide spectrum of published information in four main areas (emissions, policy performance, finance and decarbonisation) and presents it concisely, enabling comparison between these 20 countries as they shift from dirty “brown” economies to clean “green” ones.</p>
<p>The G20 is crucial to international action on climate change. Together, member states account for <a href="https://www.cfr.org/report/global-climate-change-regime">75% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a> and, in 2014, accounted for about <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/engagementworldwide/subtopics/co-operationwithkeyinternationalfora/g20/">82% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions</a>. </p>
<p>All member countries signed on to the 2015 Paris agreement, with its long-term temperature goals of keeping global warming to <a href="https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_english_.pdf">below 2˚C, ideally limiting it 1.5˚C.</a>. </p>
<p>The G20 have also proven to be a nimble policy forum, where soft policy making can happen. And there is less concern than in the past that the group would seek to <a href="http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/publications/pab/jones_pab_410.pdf">replace</a> the multilateral process.</p>
<p>This means these governments must lead the way in decarbonising their economies and building a low-carbon future. </p>
<h2>The beginning of a transition</h2>
<p>According to the Climate Transparency report, the G20 countries are using their energy more efficiently, and using cleaner energy sources. Their economies have also grown, proving that economic growth can be decoupled from greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>So we are beginning to see a transition from brown to green. But the report also reveals that the transition is too slow; it does not go deep enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals. </p>
<p>In half of the G20 countries, <a href="https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/climate-impacts-and-vulnerabilities/research/rd2-flagship-projects/gia/primap/primap">greenhouse gas emissions per capita are no longer rising</a>. A notable exception is Japan, where emissions per person are <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan.html">ticking upward</a>. </p>
<p>Canada has the highest energy use per capita, followed by Saudi Arabia, Australia and the US. </p>
<p>India, Indonesia and South Africa all have low energy use per capita (India’s per capita rate is one-eighth that of Canada). Poverty in these countries can only be addressed if people have access to more energy. </p>
<p>Today, renewable energy is increasingly the cheapest option. Still, we found that many G20 countries are meeting their increasing energy needs with coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_Coal_Gap_Briefing_COP21.pdf">the Climate Action Tracker</a>, which monitors progress toward the Paris agreement’s temperature goals, coal should be phased out globally by 2050 at the latest. </p>
<p>Between 2013 and 2014, the G20 countries’ public finance institutions - including national and international development banks, majority state-owned banks and export credit agencies - spent <a href="https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9957.pdf">an average of almost US$88 billion a year</a> on coal, oil and gas.</p>
<p>Yet many of the G20 countries are now looking at phasing out coal, including Canada, France and the UK, which have all established a plan to do so. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176494/original/file-20170701-22491-m7bcs9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176494/original/file-20170701-22491-m7bcs9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176494/original/file-20170701-22491-m7bcs9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176494/original/file-20170701-22491-m7bcs9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176494/original/file-20170701-22491-m7bcs9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176494/original/file-20170701-22491-m7bcs9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176494/original/file-20170701-22491-m7bcs9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176494/original/file-20170701-22491-m7bcs9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal power remains an important source of energy in some G20 countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Germany, Italy and Mexico, too, are considering reducing their use of coal or have taken significant action to do so. <a href="https://www.citylab.com/tech/2017/05/will-india-ever-need-another-coal-plant/528111/">India</a> and <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/reports/2017/05/15/432141/everything-think-know-coal-china-wrong/">China</a> continue to be highly dependent on coal but have recently closed and scaled back plans for a number of coal plants. </p>
<p>Countries at the bottom of the rankings are Japan, Indonesia and Turkey, all of which have substantial coal-plant construction plans, and Australia. </p>
<h2>Subsidies</h2>
<p>Despite their repeated commitment to phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, the G20 countries are <a href="http://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/publications/zombie-energy-climate-benefits-ending-subsidies-fossil-fuel-production.pdf">still heavily subsidising fossil fuels</a>. In 2014, together, the G20 provided a total of over US$230 billion in subsidies to coal, oil and gas. </p>
<p>Japan and China provided, respectively, about $US19 billion and $US17 billion a year in public finance for fossil fuels between 2013 and 2014.</p>
<p>There is good news, though: renewable energy is on <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/Perspectives_for_the_Energy_Transition_2017.pdf">the rise</a>. The G20 countries are already home to 98% of all installed wind power capacity in the world, 97% of solar power and 93% of electric vehicles.</p>
<p>In most G20 countries, renewables are a growing segment of the electricity supply, except in Russia, where absolute renewable energy consumption has decreased by 20% since 2009. China, the Republic of Korea and the UK have all seen strong growth.</p>
<p>Generally, the G20 countries are attractive for renewable energy investment, especially China, France, Germany and the UK – although the UK has now abandoned its policy support for renewables.</p>
<p>National experts asked by <a href="https://germanwatch.org/en/12978">Germanwatch</a>, a Climate Transparency partner, generally agree that their respective G20 country is doing quite well on the international stage (with the exception of the US) but lack progress in ambitious targets and policy implementation. </p>
<p>China, Brazil, France, Germany, India, Mexico and South Africa are ranked the highest for climate action. Countries with the lowest climate policy performance are the US, Australia, Japan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.</p>
<h2>Dealing with global data</h2>
<p>Putting together this G20 stocktake has had its challenges. The choice of indicators involves value judgements, which often become only apparent once national experts begin discussing them.</p>
<p>Enabling the international comparisons necessary to measure progress on climate requires information that is accurate, verifiable and comparable. The underlying data comes from very diverse economies with different legal systems, different regulations and reporting methods.</p>
<p>International organisations, such as the <a href="https://www.iea.org/">International Energy Agency</a>, have often done extensive and very careful work to develop comparable data sets but these may not always be consistent with data from in-country sources. Exploring these differences helps us to improve our understanding of the data and the underlying developments.</p>
<p>The existing reporting and review system of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="http://unfccc.int/2860.php">UNFCCC</a>) is the source of much of the data that makes these comparisons possible. </p>
<p>The real challenge the UNFCCC process faces in the next few years as it finalises the “rule book” for the Paris agreement is how to develop an enhanced transparency system that will be robust and detailed enough to provide the relevant information for its five-yearly assessment of global progress on addressing climate.</p>
<p>Even so, the UNFCCC is constrained by the extent to which countries are able to see beyond their narrow interests. </p>
<p>Independent assessments such as Climate Transparency’s, which remains mindful of different perspectives but is not limited by national interests, can play a vital role in helping to increase the political pressure for effective climate action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80303/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Niklas Höhne is also partner at the New Climate Institute, a not-for-profit research institute. He receives funding from governments, foundations, industry associations and NGOs. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Marquard is a full time employee of the Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, which has received project-based funding from the following organisations: the South African government, the UNFCCC, GIZ, the EU, OECD, UNITAR, UNDP, SA NRF, WWF, Earthlife Africa and the Children's Investment Fund.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Wills is research coordinator at CentroClima/COPPE/UFRJ and managing partner of EOS Strategy, a private consulting company. He also receives funding from CAPES - Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education in Brazil. </span></em></p>An expert report shows that the G20 countries are using their energy more efficiently. But there is still a long way to go.Niklas Höhne, Professor of Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases, Wageningen UniversityAndrew Marquard, Senior Researcher on energy and climate change, University of Cape TownWilliam Wills, Research Coordinator, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/800182017-06-30T05:20:03Z2017-06-30T05:20:03ZFrom New York to Romania, restoration ecology is helping nature heal (and maybe humanity, too)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176117/original/file-20170628-31267-1eeq592.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Bronx River will never be the way it used to be, but it sure looks a lot better today than it did 20 years ago.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://c2.staticflickr.com/6/5658/23269378171_f7d91ff397_b.jpg">RickShaw/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New York City’s <a href="http://bronxriver.org/?pg=content&p=abouttheriver">Bronx River</a> used to be an open sewer, more useful for carrying industrial waste than for hosting fish. Today, thanks to the efforts of environmental groups and the communities that live along this 37-kilometre stretch of water, the river is steadily making its way back to health. </p>
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<p>This is called restoration ecology. And from the northern reaches of New York City, as elsewhere, this 80-year-old philosophy is slowly making its way into the political mainstream, now taking climate change and modern living into account. </p>
<h2>What restoration means</h2>
<p>Success stories aside, there is a long-standing <a href="https://www.pdcnet.org/pdc/bvdb.nsf/purchase?openform&fp=enviroethics&id=enviroethics_2012_0034_0001_0067_0097">debate</a> about the value of restoring natural environments. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00201748208601955">Opponents</a> say that we are not really able to return degraded landscapes to their previous states. And that claiming to have done so risks more destruction because it generates the expectation that things can always be put back together. This problem is known as moral hazard. </p>
<p>If restoration is feasible, then what’s to stop mining companies from blowing mountains up and then just “repairing” them? </p>
<p>On the opposite side of the debate are <a href="http://vedegylet.hu/okopolitika/Light%20-%20Ecological_Citizenship.pdf">pragmatists</a>, who believe restoration efforts to more good than harm. They’re not unconcerned about moral hazard, nor do they assert that humans are able to recover landscapes to exactly as they once were. </p>
<p>But, they say, if we can make terrible situations better for people and nature alike, why not try?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aldoleopold.org/about/aldo-leopold/">Aldo Leopold</a> is a towering figure in this camp. His 1949 <a href="https://www.aldoleopold.org/about/aldo-leopold/sand-county-almanac/">Sand County Almanac</a>, an account of the now famous “land ethic” that urges people to reconnect with nature, is one of the cornerstones of the environmental movement.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176119/original/file-20170628-12666-1qs0t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176119/original/file-20170628-12666-1qs0t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176119/original/file-20170628-12666-1qs0t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176119/original/file-20170628-12666-1qs0t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176119/original/file-20170628-12666-1qs0t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176119/original/file-20170628-12666-1qs0t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176119/original/file-20170628-12666-1qs0t7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leopold’s trips to the Rio Gavilan region of the northern Sierra Madre in 1936 and 1937 helped to shape his thinking about land health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/9hS1XD">US Forest Service</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 1930s, he led the world’s first restoration project, the <a href="https://arboretum.wisc.edu">University of Wisconsin Arboretum</a>, which established the basis of modern restoration ecology: returning degraded environments to their pre-disturbance states. </p>
<p>The Wisconsin project aims to recreate the pre-colonial environment once present south of lakes Mendota and Wingra, restoring prairie, savanna, forest and wetlands. </p>
<p>Though the aim of turning back the clock remains, environmentalists think about restoration in other ways, too. Given the rapid advance of climate change, it might not be possible to make landscapes as good as new (how would one tackle, say, the melting Arctic ice fields?), a goal that was, in any case, always complicated by the inherent dynamism of nature. </p>
<p>In this framing, partly theorised by William Jordan in his 2003 book <a href="http://www.ucpress.edu/book.php?isbn=9780520272705">Sunflower Forest</a>, the historic condition of a natural environment is more a guideline than goal. Instead of restoring landscapes to a prior state, then, efforts should focus on changing our exploitative, destructive relationship with nature. </p>
<p>Increasingly, what restoration aims to heal today is the human–nature divide. </p>
<h2>Our landscapes, ourselves</h2>
<p>This is the view taken by the <a href="http://www.bronxriver.org">Bronx River Alliance</a>, a not-for-profit organisation that has been engaged in restoring the Bronx River for the better part of a decade. </p>
<p>After centuries of being used as a dumping ground for industrial and residential waste, the river can never be returned to its pre-colonial state, replete with thick forest along its banks. Nor can we simply wish away the Kensico dam or the Cross-Bronx Expressway.</p>
<p>But it is possible to make the Bronx River healthy. The Alliance has learned that the key to doing this effectively is local involvement: to heal the river and keep it that way, it must become meaningful in people’s lives. </p>
<p>And the surest way for people to feel that they have a stake in something is by acting on its behalf. From West Farms and Hunts Point to Norwood and Williamsbridge, a network of Bronx volunteers engages in outreach and education, monitors the river’s vitals and helps restock <a href="http://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2017/04/20/bronx-river-stocks-up-on-new-fish.html">it with fish</a>. </p>
<p>Some 7,000 kilometres away, in the <a href="https://www.rewildingeurope.com/areas/southern-carpathians/">Southern Carpathian</a> mountains in the Western Romanian commune of Armeniș, <a href="http://www.wwf.ro">the World Wildlife Fund Romania</a> and <a href="https://www.rewildingeurope.com">Rewilding Europe</a> have been engaged in an effort to bring the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_bison">European bison</a> back to its historic range. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176118/original/file-20170628-12666-1xpcnqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176118/original/file-20170628-12666-1xpcnqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176118/original/file-20170628-12666-1xpcnqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176118/original/file-20170628-12666-1xpcnqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176118/original/file-20170628-12666-1xpcnqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176118/original/file-20170628-12666-1xpcnqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176118/original/file-20170628-12666-1xpcnqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Home on the range.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/98/Wisent.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The biggest land mammal of Europe was barely saved from oblivion after the second world war. And today’s population descends from the gene pool of just 12 individuals.</p>
<p>The return of this magnificent animal would help manage the mosaic environment of these mountains. Without big grazers like the bison, the open pastures that many animals depend on risk being taken over by trees. </p>
<p>Rather than simply sticking dozens of captive-bred animals in the Carpathian woods, the program has involved the local community at every step. It was Armenis villagers who built the fence that surrounds the reintroduction area, and Armenis villagers who protect the bison as park rangers. </p>
<p>The first reintroduction took place in 2014 when 17 animals were released into the forest. It was blessed by the local Orthodox Christian priest, and the community gathered by the hundreds to witness it. The association trying to turn the animals into an economic opportunity is also made up of locals. </p>
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<h2>Man vs nature</h2>
<p>These are refreshing stories. Normally, the history of human engagement with the natural environment is a laundry list of failures and destruction: another species <a href="http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/animals/g201/recently-extinct-animals-list-470209/?">gone extinct</a>, another precious swathe of land destroyed. </p>
<p>Ecological restoration projects like those underway in the Bronx and Armenis have the potential to reverse this trend, restoring not just nature but also humanity’s relationship with it. </p>
<p>By directly engaging in the act of restoration, people can come to understand themselves as animals who also live on and benefit from the land. Beyond the eco-centric arguments for nature’s intrinsic value, there is evidence that nature is <a href="http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2016/01/call-to-wild/">good for our psychic health</a>, relaxing us and improving the quality of our thinking.</p>
<p>If communities around the world follow in New York and Romania’s footsteps – supported by public funds thus making government a stakeholder in restoration projects – the wonder of nature may just outlast this century. That would be good for Earth, and for humanity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80018/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mihnea Tanasescu receives funding from the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO). </span></em></p>We can’t return degraded landscapes to their original state but we can change the way people relate to their local environments.Mihnea Tanasescu, Research Fellow, Environmental Political Theory, Vrije Universiteit BrusselLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/799782017-06-27T04:52:16Z2017-06-27T04:52:16ZCities rally around the Paris deal, a reminder that global problems can have local solutions<p>When President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/climate/trump-paris-climate-agreement.html?_r=0">withdrew the United States from the Paris agreement</a>, the landmark climate accord signed by 196 nations that <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-agreement-enters-into-force-international-experts-respond-68124?sr=4">came into force</a> in November 2016, the decision caused a significant negative backlash among other signatory countries.</p>
<p>Given that the US is one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters, its June 1 reneging on the deal delivered a blow to the global agreement. But, as many commentators were quick to <a href="http://globalnews.ca/news/3492004/us-paris-climate-agreement-impact-climate-change/">point out</a>, as long as other leaders didn’t follow Trump’s lead, it was largely a symbolic one. </p>
<p>So far, the international response has confirmed this: a chain reaction of support for climate change mitigation, from grassroots up to the highest ranks of government. </p>
<h2>Making the planet great again</h2>
<p>China <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-03-29/china-still-committed-to-paris-climate-change-deal-foreign-ministry">has reiterated its support for the Paris agreement</a>, and India, the world’s fourth-largest greenhouse gas emitter, seems likely to continue <a href="https://psmag.com/environment/china-india-keeping-paris-agreement-alive">the renewable energy revolution</a> already underway there.</p>
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<p>Europe, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/world/europe/paris-agreement-merkel-trump-macron.html">led by Germany and France</a>, is also stepping into the fray. </p>
<p>“Make our planet great again,” French President Emmanuel Macron <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/03/make-our-planet-great-again-macron-praised-for-response-to-trump">retorted</a> from the Élysée Palace on June 1, inviting American scientists to France for work on developing solutions to climate change.</p>
<p>In the same speech, Macron also proposed a follow up to the Paris agreement: a global pact on environmental justice, under which states could be held accountable for flouting the rights of a group or individual. </p>
<p>More than any other European leader, the 39-year-old French president seems to represent younger generations’ concerns about climate change. And, of course, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465?sr=1">the Paris agreement</a> wouldn’t be the Paris agreement without France.</p>
<h2>Heat islands</h2>
<p>Trump’s environmentalism has also incentivised US stakeholders to play a more central role in holding up the American end of the Paris agreement, which then <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/22/united-states-and-170-nations-sign-historic-climate-agreement/?utm_term=.066dcc14b5fd">US secretary of state John Kerry signed in April 2016</a> with his granddaughter on his lap. </p>
<p>US cities, companies, universities and states are now taking the initiative to cooperate directly with other countries and coordinate initiatives on reducing greenhouse gas emissions via the UN’s <a href="http://climateaction.unfccc.int/">Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action</a> portal (NAZCA), which recognises the importance of sub-national actors in climate action. As of June 24, <a href="https://www.curbed.com/2017/6/1/15726376/paris-accord-climate-change-mayors-trump">331 US cities had adopted</a> the Paris agreement. </p>
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<p>These pledges may not be legally binding, as they are when countries sign agreements, but the commitments of US cities, states and companies, which will be reported and measured through NAZCA’s <a href="http://climateaction.unfccc.int/about">data partners</a>, may well have a significant environmental impact.</p>
<p>As former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, a billionaire philanthropist who has invested US$15 million in American cities’ effort to engage internationally, said about mitigating climate change in <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/06/22/533989397/from-the-ashes-documents-rise-and-fall-of-coal-in-america">a recent interview on National Public Radio</a>, “Local governments can do something, state governments less and federal governments almost nothing.”</p>
<p>Large cities give rise to <a href="https://www.epa.gov/heat-islands">the “urban heat island” effect</a>, in which heat-trapping concrete and asphalt replace natural vegetation and water. This steamy situation is exacerbated by heat from cars, subway systems, air conditioners and the like.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175697/original/file-20170626-29728-1vuc1d4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175697/original/file-20170626-29728-1vuc1d4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175697/original/file-20170626-29728-1vuc1d4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175697/original/file-20170626-29728-1vuc1d4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175697/original/file-20170626-29728-1vuc1d4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175697/original/file-20170626-29728-1vuc1d4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175697/original/file-20170626-29728-1vuc1d4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Asphalt, buildings and other urban realities can trap heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7d/Urban_heat_island_%28Celsius%29.png/1280px-Urban_heat_island_%28Celsius%29.png">NOAA/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to new research reported in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n6/full/nclimate3301.html">Nature Climate Change</a>, the heat island effect in the world’s most populous cities – a clutch of sprawling megalopolises that includes Chicago, Houston, and San Diego in the US, as well as Shanghai in China and Lagos in Nigeria – is expected to add two degrees to global warming by 2050.</p>
<p>The study by Francisco Estrada, W. J. Wouter Botzen and Richard S. J. Tol provides the first quantitative assessment of the economic costs of the joint impacts of local and global climate change for all major urban centres around the world. </p>
<p>The analysis, which looked at some 1,500 large cities, shows that the total economic costs of climate change for cities could be 2.6 times higher when heat island effects are taken into account than when they are not. For the worst-off cities, losses could reach more than 10% of their gross domestic product GDP by the end of the century.</p>
<p>There are relatively low-cost solutions to this highly localised problem, from <a href="https://www.epa.gov/heat-islands/using-cool-pavements-reduce-heat-islands">cool pavements</a>, which are designed to reflect more sunlight and absorb less heat, to <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064004">green roofing</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175701/original/file-20170626-29117-qbpo6z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175701/original/file-20170626-29117-qbpo6z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175701/original/file-20170626-29117-qbpo6z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175701/original/file-20170626-29117-qbpo6z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175701/original/file-20170626-29117-qbpo6z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175701/original/file-20170626-29117-qbpo6z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175701/original/file-20170626-29117-qbpo6z.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Chicago, the City Hall’s green roof helps keep things cool.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/de/20080708_Chicago_City_Hall_Green_Roof.JPG">TonyTheTiger/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According the the study, converting just 20% of a city’s rooftops and half of its pavements to modern heat-reducing versions could save up to 12 times what they cost to install and maintain, and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Brad_Bass/publication/44077726_Performance_of_green_roof_systems/links/0c96052b4deed36266000000/Performance-of-green-roof-systems.pdf">reduce local air temperatures citywide</a> by up to 0.8°C.</p>
<p>As study author Richard Tol <a href="https://phys.org/news/2017-05-island-effect-climate-world-cities.html">has noted</a>, “City-level adaptation strategies to limit local warming have important economic net benefits for almost all cities around the world. It is clear that we have until now underestimated the dramatic impact that local policies could make in reducing urban warming.” </p>
<h2>Global problems, local response</h2>
<p>So, from Pittsburgh to Phuket, cities will be essential for keeping the increase in the average global temperature below 2°C, the main goal of the Paris agreement. </p>
<p>The unprecedented bottom-up commitment to this international climate deal is also in the clear interest of participating states and cities, which are most likely to directly and immediately feel the impact of global warming.</p>
<p>California, for example, has a long-term commitment to reducing emissions, alongside its unique technological strengths in renewable energy and research on <a href="https://qz.com/999980/how-us-states-and-companies-can-join-the-paris-agreement-despite-trumps-exit/">autonomous cars</a>. Meanwhile, the island state of Hawaii is particularly sensitive to <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/hawaii-trump-paris-agreement-climate-change-laws-first-us-state-a7778226.html">climate change-related sea level rises</a>.</p>
<p>Mayors and governors are also the public officials responsible for <a href="https://www.bloomberg.org/program/environment/sustainable-cities/#progress">common infrastructural needs</a> that can help population centres mitigate climate change, such as reinforcing dikes and improving public transit – eco-friendly investments that also <a href="http://grist.org/cities/pushing-poor-people-to-the-suburbs-is-bad-for-the-environment/">improve quality of life</a> for residents.</p>
<p>In neighbouring Canada, where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made battling climate change a priority for his administration, many provinces, including populous Quebec and Ontario, are now making <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/07/world/canada/canadas-strategy-on-climate-change-work-with-american-states.html?_r=0">direct agreements with states and cities</a> on cap-and-trade agreements and other environmental initiatives.</p>
<p>The world’s response to Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement is a powerful reminder that global challenges – not just climate change but also conflict, <a href="https://theconversation.com/venices-long-history-as-a-sanctuary-city-for-migrants-is-under-threat-70359">migration</a> and others – are profoundly intertwined with local and regional issues.</p>
<p>At a time when countries’ openness to the world <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-series-globalisation-under-pressure-78056?sr=3">has become a matter of contention</a>, many of the world’s most pressing problems still require not just active international collaboration between nation states but also engagement on all levels of government, whether the <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/336014-trump-cements-america-first-doctrine-with-paris-withdrawal">administration</a> in Washington likes it or not.</p>
<p>Paris, in this sense, was just the beginning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79978/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luc Soete does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>International problems and local policies are integrally interwoven, whether the nationalists in Washington like it or not.Luc Soete, Professorial Fellow, United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/800172017-06-27T04:52:03Z2017-06-27T04:52:03ZUnderstanding the root causes of natural disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175689/original/file-20170626-29070-ohp5hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ishinomaki one year after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/39919624@N02/5886385919/in/album-72157626958145461/">schmid91/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every year disasters take lives, cause significant damage, inhibit development and contribute to conflict and forced migration. Unfortunately, the trend is an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/">upward one</a>. </p>
<p>In May 2017, policy-makers and disaster management experts from over 180 countries <a href="http://www.unisdr.org/conferences/2017/globalplatform/en">gathered in Cancun</a>, Mexico, to discuss ways to counter this trend.</p>
<p>In the middle of the Cancun summit, news arrived that large parts of <a href="http://www.unisdr.org/conferences/2017/globalplatform/en">Sri Lanka were devastated by floods and landslides</a>, killing at least 150 and displacing almost half a million people. </p>
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<p>It was a stark reminder of the summit participants’ challenging task of paving the way towards reducing disaster losses “significantly” by the year 2030 based on the <a href="http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/43291">Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction</a> (DRR). </p>
<p>Adopted in 2015, the Sendai Framework outlines seven targets and four priorities for action to prevent new, and reduce existing, disaster risks to economic, physical, social, cultural, health or environmental assets and lives of persons, businesses, communities and countries.</p>
<p>Since then, in China, a village in the Sichuan province has been devastated by a landslide and rescuers <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/25/asia/china-landslide-sichuan-search/index.html">are still looking</a> for missing people.</p>
<h2>The social root causes of disaster</h2>
<p>Disasters occur when people are affected by natural or technical hazards – when lives are lost or property is destroyed. As the Swiss writer<a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Max-Frisch"> Max Frisch</a> observed in his 1979 book ‘Man in the Holocene’, “-only human beings can recognise catastrophes, provided they survive them; nature recognises no catastrophes.”</p>
<p><a href="http://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/52877">Research</a> conducted in Sri Lanka suggests that while heavy rainfall was the trigger for the flooding, the root causes of the disaster were social, in particular widespread poverty, conflict-induced migration and problematic land-use practices. These characteristics are not homogeneous, meaning different places and people are affected differently.</p>
<p>The social characteristics of communities are extremely important for hazard managers because they increase peoples’ vulnerability to hazards. </p>
<p>A global community that is dedicated to reducing disaster losses over the next decade must address these social root causes of disaster. If not, the lofty goals of the Sendai Framework will remain elusive.</p>
<h2>Pockets of vulnerability across societies</h2>
<p>Understandably, socially disadvantaged communities exposed to hazards have to date received the most attention from DRR specialists. This is because hazards tend to harm predominantly those social groups that were already disadvantaged before a disaster. </p>
<p>Large focus has been placed on “underdeveloped” or “developing” nations, where the social disadvantage factors are particularly obvious. For example, while studying the social aspects of food insecurity during droughts in the Sahel region in the mid-1980s, <a href="http://eprints.icrisat.ac.in/10864/1/Seasonal%20Food%20Insecurity%20and%20Vulnerability_118-136_1989.pdf">scientists</a> showed that low-wealth families with many children were particularly susceptible to chronic food insecurity.</p>
<p>But groups of people living in places where the overall socio-economic status is higher can also be vulnerable to hazards, and little is known about these groups. </p>
<p>The assumption that all members of affluent societies are somehow immune to disasters seems to be broadly shared, perhaps because vulnerability may be less obvious. This (mis)belief seems to be reinforced by various <a href="https://svi.cdc.gov/">attempts to index and compare</a> the vulnerability of communities, regions or whole nations. </p>
<p>In fact, making inferences about disaster vulnerability based on aggregated economic characteristics often leads to misleading conclusions. This problem is known as the ‘<a href="https://web.stanford.edu/class/ed260/freedman549.pdf">ecological fallacy</a>’, where relationships on the aggregate level do not necessarily hold on the individual level.</p>
<p>For instance, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014362289700043X">research</a> from the 1990s demonstrated that homeless people in Tokyo (at the time one of the wealthiest cities in the world) were far more vulnerable to earthquake hazards than the average resident. Problematically, emergency planning by government overlooked this ‘invisible’ sub-population. In this case, the ‘ecological fallacy’ meant there was a tendency for emergency planning activities to be directed toward a higher socio-economic class.</p>
<p>Additionally, research conducted in the wake of Hurricane Katrina’s impact on New Orleans in 2005 has shown that socio-economically disadvantaged households and communities were disproportionally <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0002716205285515">affected</a> by the hurricane. These people lacked the capabilities to prepare for, respond to and recover from the event.</p>
<p>These examples, from affluent and less affluent countries, suggest the need to consider social vulnerability in more geographically and demographically nuanced ways when implementing DRR activities. On the one hand, poorer communities might bring <a href="https://www.unisdr.org/archive/45404">alternative capabilities</a> to DRR that are non-financial. On the other hand, ignoring existing social disadvantage within affluent contexts risks significant loss of life and property, and forgoes the opportunity to improve the circumstances of the affected sub-populations.</p>
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<h2>The case of the 1991 Oakland Hills wildfire</h2>
<p>In order to deepen understanding of social vulnerability in affluent contexts, we recently conducted <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0308518X16669511">an interview study</a> on the long-term effects of the 1991 Oakland Hills wildfire in California. The analysis revealed that households with low socio-economic status actually benefited from the characteristics of the overall community. </p>
<p>Specifically, high levels of political and social capital in the neighbourhood contributed to extensive recovery efforts by public authorities (e.g. infrastructure upgrades). In turn, these measures increased not only the value of the properties of the politically active members of the community (typically higher socio-economic status), but also the value of the homes of the economically weakest families. In this way, resources available at the neighbourhood level mediated the hazard’s impacts at the household level throughout the community.</p>
<p>Even so, there were sharp differences in the way the 1991 fire affected different sub-groups of the community. During the firestorm elderly residents and people with physical disabilities were especially vulnerable because these people had problems evacuating from the fire zone. After the fire, during the recovery stage, different groups faced difficulties in accessing their insurance, an often cited, but <a href="https://pub.iges.or.jp/pub_file/drr/download?token=49B16OI5">perhaps unreliable resource</a> for recovery. As one female interview participant in the Oakland Hills <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0308518X16669511">described</a>: “Demographics count. If you’re a single woman, if you’re a person of colour, they’ll treat you differently. And we were low income. So they accused us of fraud. How could we live here? Even though we had all the proof in the world.”</p>
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<p>After protracted negations with insurance companies, most financial losses were covered, but the affected citizens reported suffering financial and emotional stress during the, for some, decade-long recovery phase. While the case demonstrated that affluence could mediate household vulnerability, damaging disparities remained nevertheless.</p>
<h2>No magic formula</h2>
<p>While the Oakland Hills case is informative, we must avoid uncritically generalising these findings. Understanding social vulnerability is ultimately about understanding the particular geographical and social contexts in which it manifests. What drives social vulnerability in one place may play no role in another. Instead, vulnerability should be understood as a dynamic concept - “<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-011-9751-6">a product of specific spatial, socio-economic–demographic, cultural and institutional contexts</a>” that intersect in everyday life.</p>
<p>The Oakland Hills story does highlight the need to better understand the drivers of vulnerability, in both affluent and less affluent societies, in order to create effective DRR strategies. <a href="https://www.ethz.ch/content/specialinterest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/en/publications/risk-and-resilience-reports/details.html?id=/m/a/p/p/mapping_social_vulnerability_in_switzerl">Research</a> we have begun in Zurich, Switzerland, aims to foster a better understanding of these issues. </p>
<p>This work, again, demonstrates that even in this generally very affluent city, major social disparities exist, with susceptible social groups often being geographically concentrated. In the case of a potential natural hazard, these pockets of vulnerable people are likely to be affected most.</p>
<h2>Key knowledge for emergency services and risk managers</h2>
<p>Regardless of official interest in poor or affluent societies, questions about the drivers of social vulnerability are of significant practical importance. Understanding which parts of society are susceptible to natural hazards, and why, is key knowledge for emergency services and risk managers.</p>
<p>Across all stages of the disaster cycle – preparedness, response, and recovery – knowledge about the nature and location of socially vulnerable groups is critical for effective DRR. </p>
<p>Before an event, knowing which groups have low levels of preparedness is essential for planning tailored risk communication and support initiatives. During a disaster, information on vulnerable groups can help to increase the effectiveness of response measures, for example, by establishing priorities during evacuations. </p>
<p>Finally, an in-depth understanding of vulnerability can be used to support disadvantaged social groups during the recovery process. </p>
<p>Together, these measures can make an important contribution to reducing disaster risk under very different socio-economic circumstances.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florian Roth receives funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF) and from the government of Switzerland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine Eriksen receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DE150100242; DP170100096). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Prior receives funding from the government of Switzerland</span></em></p>Understanding what parts of society are susceptible to natural hazards and why, is key for emergency services and risk managers.Florian Roth, Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ZurichChristine Eriksen, Senior Research Fellow, Australian Centre for Cultural Environmental Research, University of WollongongTim Prior, Senior Research Fellow, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ZurichLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/791492017-06-26T04:27:09Z2017-06-26T04:27:09ZHow the gas industry can help fight climate change in Siberia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175489/original/file-20170625-13450-bu1b0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scientists monitor landscapes like Omulyakhskaya and Khromskaya Bays in northern Siberia closely.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/6049749461">NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Permafrost is the layer of permanently frozen earth – <a href="https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/24/from-canada-to-siberia-permafrost-thaw-produces-hells-mouth-craters-sinking-lands-and-7000-methane-pockets-waiting-to-blow/">over a 1,000 metres thick</a> in some places – that lies just beneath the land surface in Arctic regions. It formed over the past few million years when ice ages predominated. </p>
<p>Now, under the influence of global warming, it is melting. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/methane-and-the-risk-of-runaway-global-warming-16275">research</a> suggests that this may have reached the point of triggering runaway climate change, unless we can find ways to intervene.</p>
<p>The problem is that permafrost contains huge amounts of methane, anatural gas that’s being progressively released as the ice melts. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, having <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/ese3.35/full">up to 80</a> times more warming potential than carbon dioxide. </p>
<p>We can’t stop this process, but could we capture the methane as it is released? It just so happens that the gas industry has the technology to do just this, and join the fight against climate change.</p>
<h2>Trouble on the tundra</h2>
<p>Scientists working in northern Siberia <a href="http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0905-7000-underground-gas-bubbles-poised-to-explode-in-arctic/">announced in March this year</a> that they had identified some 7,000 small hillocks created by methane that has been released underground and is pushing the ground upwards. The hillocks are between 50 and 100 metres across.</p>
<p>In 2014, scientists also started discovering strange craters in the landscape, which appear to have been formed as a result of explosions. It seems that the pressure inside the hillocks builds up until a huge methane bubble is released with explosive force. These violent gas releases are dangerous to people and infrastructure, and scientists are working on ways of estimating the local threat. </p>
<p>Similar mounds have been discovered in the shallow waters off the Siberian shelf, and in <a href="http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/features/f0183-leaking-pingos-can-explode-under-the-sea-in-the-arctic-as-well-as-on-land/">1995</a> a drilling vessel accidentally drilled into one, releasing a vast bubble of methane that almost sank the vessel.</p>
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<p>These releases have global consequences. They are a massive new source of greenhouse gas, making runaway climate change more likely. And there’s something that the gas industry could do about it. </p>
<h2>The right kind of mining</h2>
<p>The industry is already experienced in collecting coal seam and shale gas from large numbers of widely distributed, relatively small wells. It should be possible to use the same technology to tap into these massive gas bubbles before they burst, collect the methane and transport it to market. </p>
<p>If this turns out not to be commercially viable, internationally funded subsidies may be needed to provide an incentive to the gas industry. </p>
<p>If there is no prospect at all of marketing the gas, at least it could be flared - burnt - converting methane into CO₂ This would be far better <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/ese3.35/full">environmentally</a> than allowing the methane to escape. But it would need to be fully funded by governments. </p>
<p>Petroleum companies, meanwhile, are considering mining reserves of frozen methane that lie far below the surface of the Arctic, and that are unlikely to be released by natural processes in the foreseeable future. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175399/original/file-20170623-17464-a4oqzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175399/original/file-20170623-17464-a4oqzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175399/original/file-20170623-17464-a4oqzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175399/original/file-20170623-17464-a4oqzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175399/original/file-20170623-17464-a4oqzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175399/original/file-20170623-17464-a4oqzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175399/original/file-20170623-17464-a4oqzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harvesting arctic methane.</span>
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</figure>
<p>In order to be exploitable, these stable reserves need to be stimulated in various ways, such as by pumping hot water underground. But if gas producers were to focus on these <em>stable</em> reserves of methane, they would <em>contribute</em> to climate change rather than help combat it. </p>
<p>Any scheme to encourage gas companies to take up the challenge identified here would need to guard against this possibility.</p>
<h2>And now the sea bed</h2>
<p>A second type of methane release has also been <a href="http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/">discovered</a>, coming from the Arctic seabed. The area is shallow, with an average depth of 50 metres, and was once dry land. At that time, it froze to great depth. </p>
<p>Now beneath the sea, it is thawing in particular spots known as <em>taliks</em>. </p>
<p>The result is that areas of the sea floor – some about a 100 metres across and others up to a kilometre across – are releasing streams of small methane bubbles that are rising to the surface in continuous fountains, and escaping into the atmosphere. </p>
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<p>Russian scientists have been monitoring these releases for several years and their most recent research, <a href="http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/">published in late 2016 </a>, shows that the area from which this seepage is occurring has expanded. </p>
<p>They conclude that the rate of permafrost degeneration may have increased. They also note that the amount of methane being released from the Arctic seabed is comparable with that being released from the tundra.</p>
<p>For the continuous fountains of methane being released from the Arctic seabed, it should be possible to place domes over the escaping gas and bring it to the surface in a controlled fashion. </p>
<p>The gas industry already has <a href="https://www.google.com/patents/WO2015065412A1?cl=en">the technology to do this</a>. But this technology aims to stimulate the release of methane that might not otherwise be released. </p>
<p>Again, this would be counterproductive from an environmental point of view. So again, if the industry were to receive a subsidy for harvesting methane in this way and transporting it to market, or at the very least flaring it, controls would need to be in place to ensure that no additional methane was being harvested beyond that which would have been released in the normal course of events. </p>
<p>It’s now widely believed that even if human emissions of greenhouse gasses could be reduced to zero in the near future, it wouldn’t be enough to prevent catastrophic global warming. One of the additional steps we need to take is to curtail naturally occurring emissions. </p>
<p>Given the rate of technological change occurring in the renewable energy industry, the role of gas as a transition fuel may not last as long as the industry hopes. But if it can find a way to harvest methane escaping from the melting permafrost, it will have assured itself a longer term future. </p>
<p>The Paris Climate Summit envisaged developed countries finding US$100 billion a year to subsidise the efforts of developing countries to reduce greenhouse emissions. If that kind of money could be found to fund the capture of Arctic methane emissions, then the projects sketched above could become feasible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Hopkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By capturing Arctic methane emissions, the gas industry could join the fight against climate change.Andrew Hopkins, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/792782017-06-19T06:00:36Z2017-06-19T06:00:36ZWhen a river is a person: from Ecuador to New Zealand, nature gets its day in court<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174218/original/file-20170616-512-u5d888.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Whanganui River, seen here, is now a person under New Zealand law.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alexindigo/3983156162">AlexIndigo/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the early 2000s, the idea of giving legal rights to nature was on the fringes of environmental <a href="https://www.academia.edu/25399912/The_Rights_of_Nature_Theory_and_Practice">legal theory</a> and public consciousness. </p>
<p>Today, New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/16/new-zealand-river-granted-same-legal-rights-as-human-being">Whanganui River</a> is a person under domestic law, and India’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/apr/21/rivers-legal-human-rights-ganges-whanganui">Ganges River</a> was recently granted human rights. In Ecuador, the Constitution enshrines nature’s “right to integral respect”.</p>
<p>What on earth does this all mean?</p>
<h2>Fighting for nature</h2>
<p>The theory of giving rights to nature was proposed in the 1970s by the American legal scholar <a href="https://books.google.be/books/about/Should_Trees_Have_Standing.html?id=0aZoAgAAQBAJ&source=kp_cover&redir_esc=y">Christopher D. Stone</a> as a strategic environmental defence strategy. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174227/original/file-20170616-554-1tlery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174227/original/file-20170616-554-1tlery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174227/original/file-20170616-554-1tlery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174227/original/file-20170616-554-1tlery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174227/original/file-20170616-554-1tlery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174227/original/file-20170616-554-1tlery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174227/original/file-20170616-554-1tlery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1972 book that started it all.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://boulderrightsofnature.org/resources/bookshelf/">Boulder Rights of Nature</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In environmental litigation, many cases are unsuccessful because the people who bring the suit lack the legal standing to do so. It is hard for a plaintiff such as the US environmental protection organisation the Sierra Club to demonstrate why it – and not, for example, a property owner – has the power to sue over environmental damage. </p>
<p>In other words, it’s difficult for nature’s de facto representatives to defend its interests in court.</p>
<p>As a workaround, Stone suggested giving rights to the environment itself, because, as a rights holder, the environment would have the standing to bring a suit on its own behalf. Rights of nature, then, are not rights to anything in particular but simply a way to enable nature to have a legal hearing.</p>
<p>It took decades for lawyers to turn <a href="https://celdf.org/rights/rights-of-nature/">theory into reality</a>. But in 2006, Tamaqua Borough in Pennsylvania <a href="https://celebratewcffg.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/rights-of-nature-for-wcffg.pdf">became the first US community</a> to recognise the rights of nature within municipal territory. Since then dozens of communities have adopted similar local ordinances.</p>
<h2>Entitled to “integral respect”</h2>
<p>Nature is gaining rights internationally, too.</p>
<p>In Ecuador, <a href="http://pdba.georgetown.edu/Constitutions/Ecuador/english08.html">article 71</a> of the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4994860/The_Rights_of_Nature_in_Ecuador_The_Making_of_an_Idea">2008 Constitution</a> states that nature “has the right to integral respect for its existence and for the maintenance and regeneration of its life cycles, structure, functions and evolutionary processes”.</p>
<p>In practice, that means that all persons, communities, peoples and nations can demand that Ecuadorian authorities enforce the rights of nature. One of those rights, according to article 72, is the right to be restored.</p>
<p>Ecuador’s approach to nature’s rights, which was soon emulated <a href="http://www.worldfuturefund.org/Projects/Indicators/motherearthbolivia.html">in Bolivia</a>, were notable in two ways. First, it grants nature positive rights – that is, rights <em>to</em> something specific (restoration, regeneration, respect).</p>
<p>It also resolves the issue of legal standing in the most comprehensive way possible: by granting it to everyone. In Ecuador, anyone – regardless of their relationship to a particular slice of land – can go to court to protect it. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174217/original/file-20170616-10505-q1ldg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174217/original/file-20170616-10505-q1ldg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174217/original/file-20170616-10505-q1ldg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174217/original/file-20170616-10505-q1ldg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174217/original/file-20170616-10505-q1ldg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174217/original/file-20170616-10505-q1ldg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174217/original/file-20170616-10505-q1ldg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Ganges, which flows through the sacred city of Varanasi, was granted human rights in March 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganges#/media/File:Varanasiganga.jpg">Babasteve/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first successful case was brought in 2011 by the <a href="http://therightsofnature.org/first-ron-case-ecuador/">Vilcabamba River</a>. Its representatives in court were an American couple with riverfront property, who <a href="https://www.earthlaws.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/RON_Vilcabamba-Ecuador-Case-complete.pdf">sued the provincial government of Loja</a>, arguing that a planned road project would deposit large quantities of rock and excavation material into the river.</p>
<p>Overall, however, Ecuador and Bolivia have seen mixed results. In both countries, extractive industries <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10714839.2013.11721895">continue to expand</a> into indigenous territory, pursuing oil (in Ecuador) and mining (in Bolivia). </p>
<p>In Ecuador, <a href="https://www.pachamama.org/advocacy/fundacion-pachamama">civil society groups</a> have struggled to exercise nature’s rights effectively, in part because the domestic economy depends on the very environmentally-damaging activities they would like to target. </p>
<h2>Personhood for the Whanganui</h2>
<p>Things are going better in New Zealand, which passed its <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-rivers-are-now-legally-people-but-thats-just-the-start-of-looking-after-them-74983?sr=3">first rights for nature law</a> in March 2017. </p>
<p>There, the Whanganui River, which flows across the North Island, has been granted <a href="http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/new-zealand-bill-establishing-river-as-having-own-legal-personality-passed/">rights of personhood</a>. That means the river – but not nature writ large – can act as a person in a court of law; it has legal standing. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s law also designates the river’s representatives: a committee composed of representatives of the indigenous community that fought for these rights, as well as representatives of the Crown (New Zealand is <a href="http://thecommonwealth.org/our-member-countries/new-zealand">part of the British Commonwealth</a>).</p>
<p>This formulation, which more closely resembles the American theoretical origins of the rights of nature, diverges markedly from Ecuador and Bolivia’s model by naming specific guardians and not granting positive rights. </p>
<p>If the Whanganui had the right to flow in a certain way, for example, then any change to its course would be a violation of its rights. Absent this kind of right, the river is simply empowered to stand for itself in court; its legal guardians determine the positive content of its rights. </p>
<p>It is thus theoretically conceivable that the river might one day argue for its course be changed because that change is necessary for its long-term survival (say, as an adaptation to climate change). </p>
<h2>Prioritising indigenous defenders</h2>
<p>Because indigenous communities play <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9781137538956">an important role</a> in fighting for nature’s rights in all three countries, it is often assumed that they are and will continue to be the obvious guardians of nature. </p>
<p>After all, from <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-the-villagers-who-protect-biodiversity-on-the-top-of-the-world-78374">China</a> to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/29/world/americas/el-salvador-prizing-water-over-gold-bans-all-metal-mining.html?_r=3">El Salvador</a>, indigenous peoples are on the front lines of environmental defence.</p>
<p>But there are problems with this assumption. The indigenous of the world are not a <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/whp/ev/2015/00000024/00000001/art00007">homogenous group</a> that inherently cares for nature. </p>
<p>Additionally, unless the law designates a specific community the legal representative of nature, as in New Zealand, there is no guarantee that the intended community will be the one that ends up speaking for nature. </p>
<p>In Ecuador and Bolivia, the relevant legal texts use morally loaded language and rich references to indigenous communities that make clear the intended guardians of the nations’ natural treasures. </p>
<p>But standing is in fact granted broadly, and neither of the two legal cases settled in favour of nature to date in Ecuador was brought by an indigenous group. </p>
<p>One suit was won by Americans (in the name of the Vilcabamba River) and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9388.2012.00744.x/abstract">the other</a>, lodged on behalf of nature in San Lorenzo and Eloy Alfaro districts in 2011, was brought by the state, which sued to stop illegal small-scale mining operations in the area. The spirit of the law might have been violated in these cases, but the letter surely was not. </p>
<p>Ambiguous language could also permit abuse. In theory, given a sufficiently wide definition of standing and of nature, oil companies themselves could use the rights of nature to protect Ecuador’s hydrocarbon reserves. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s narrower approach may prove more effective in the long run. By granting natural entities personhood one by one and assigning them specific guardians, over time New Zealand could drastically change an ossified legal system that still sees oceans, mountains and forests primarily as property, guaranteeing nature its day in court.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79278/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mihnea Tanasescu receives funding from the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO). </span></em></p>New Zealand just conferred personhood upon the Whanganui River, giving it standing to legally defend its rights. Can this novel strategy save the environment?Mihnea Tanasescu, Research Fellow, Environmental Political Theory, Vrije Universiteit BrusselLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/783722017-06-16T05:59:57Z2017-06-16T05:59:57ZIndia’s wells are running dry, fast<p><a href="http://www.livemint.com/Money/QeMGJQfsUTbVZy4ZETPUBN/Late-monsoon-rising-prices-may-further-delay-rate-cut-by-RB.html">Over the past three years</a>, the monsoon – the rainy season that runs from June through September, depending on the region – has been weak or delayed across much of India, causing widespread water shortages.</p>
<p>With the onset of summer this year, southern India, particularly Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu states, are already wilting under a blistering sun and repeated heatwaves. Drought is expected to affect at least <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/8-states-declared-drought-affected-centre-allows-them-to-offer-50-days-of-extra-work-under-nregs/articleshow/58037760.cms">eight states</a> in 2017, which is a devastating possibility in a country where <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS">agriculture accounted for 17.5% of GDP in 2015</a> and provides the livelihood for nearly half the population. </p>
<p>Across rural India, water bodies, including man-made lakes and reservoirs, are fast disappearing after decades of neglect and pollution.</p>
<p>“They have drained out the water and converted the land into a plot for schools, dispensaries, and other construction activities,” Manoj Misra of the NGO Yamuna Jiye Abhiyan <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/water-bodies-disappearing-fast-in-rural-areas/article3823908.ece">warned in The Hindu newspaper</a> as far back as 2012.</p>
<h2>Not a drop to drink</h2>
<p>It wasn’t always this way. For the past 2,500 years, India has managed its water needs by <a href="http://www.indiawaterportal.org/sites/indiawaterportal.org/files/Waternama_english.pdf">increasing supply</a>. </p>
<p>Prior to industrialisation and the accompanying global “<a href="https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/19926713240">green revolution</a>” in the 1960s, which saw the development of high-yield variety crops using new technologies, India’s water availability was plentiful. Households, industries and farmers freely extracted groundwater and dumped untreated waste into waterways without a second thought. </p>
<p>But such practices are now increasingly untenable in this rapidly growing country. Per capita availability of water has been steadily falling for over a decade, dropping <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=119797">from 1,816 cubic metres per person in 2001 to 1,545 cubic metres in 2011</a>. </p>
<p>The decline is projected to deepen in coming years as the population grows. India, which currently has 1.3 billion people, is set to overtake China by 2022 and reach <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/files/key_findings_wpp_2015.pdf">1.7 billion in 2050</a>. </p>
<p>Water scarcity is also exacerbated by a growth in water-intensive industries, such as thermal power production, extraction and mining, as India seeks to feed and power its growing population. In addition to affecting biodiversity, these activities also <a href="http://www.gaiafoundation.org/UnderMiningtheWaterCycle.pdf">alter natural water systems</a>. </p>
<p>Still, successive governments have pursued the same old supply-centric policies, paying little heed to the country’s waning clean water supplies. </p>
<p>For nearly 50 years, <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084005">a misguided groundwater policy</a> has sucked India dry; water tables have declined by an average of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/india_water.html">one metre every three years</a> in some parts of the Indus basin, turning it into the <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86263">second most over-stressed aquifer in the world</a>, according to NASA.</p>
<p>Across nearly the whole country, basic sewage management is also lacking. According to the Third World Centre for Water Management, only about 10% of waste water in the country is <a href="https://thirdworldcentre.org/communication-media/urbanization-in-india/">collected and properly treated</a>. As a result, all water bodies in and around urban centres are seriously polluted. </p>
<p>Today, the country is struggling to provide safe drinking water to every citizen. </p>
<h2>What conservation?</h2>
<p>Even so, residents of New Delhi or Kolkata today use more than twice as much water, on average, than people in <a href="https://thirdworldcentre.org/communication-media/too-little-too-late-why-water-pricing-and-management-in-singapore-needs-to-be-more-ambitious/">Singapore, Leipzig, Barcelona or Zaragoza</a>, according to data compiled by the Third World Research Centre. </p>
<p>The water <a href="https://thirdworldcentre.org/communication-media/india-needs-to-radically-overhaul-its-water-institutions/">use in Delhi is 220 litres per capita per day</a> (lpcd), while some European cities boast figures of 95 to 120 lpcd.</p>
<p>Excess consumption is attributable in part to citizen indifference about conserving water after so many years of plentiful supply. Since large swaths of many Indian megacities lack piped supply of clean water, leaks and theft are common. Cities in India lose <a href="http://delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/d624c0004054d4aabea4fea1527a7156/ch-13.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&lmod=-888712437&CACHEID=d624c0004054d4aabea4fea1527a7156">40% to 50% due to leakages</a> and non-authorised connections. </p>
<p>At this point, the only viable option for India would seem to be managing demand and using water more efficiently.</p>
<p>The country is making tentative steps in that direction. <a href="http://www.wrmin.nic.in/writereaddata/Water_Framework_May_2016.pdf">The 2016 new National Water Framework</a>, passed emphasises the need for conservation and more efficient water use. </p>
<p>But under India’s Constitution, states are responsible for managing water, so central policies have little resonance. Neither the <a href="publications.iwmi.org/pdf/H042921.pdf">1987 and 2012 National Water Policy documents</a>, which contained similar recommendations to the 2016 policy, had any real impact on water use. </p>
<p>And after millennia of exclusive focus on expanding the water supply, the idea of curbing water consumption and increase reuse remains a mostly alien concept in India. </p>
<h2>Water wars</h2>
<p>Consistent supply-centric thinking has also resulted in competition for water as states negotiate the allocation of river water based on local needs. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173874/original/file-20170614-26091-1l2h0fc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173874/original/file-20170614-26091-1l2h0fc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173874/original/file-20170614-26091-1l2h0fc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173874/original/file-20170614-26091-1l2h0fc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173874/original/file-20170614-26091-1l2h0fc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173874/original/file-20170614-26091-1l2h0fc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173874/original/file-20170614-26091-1l2h0fc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India’s inter-state disputes on water usage have reached a critical point.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:India_rivers_and_lakes_map.svg">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The century-long conflict over <a href="http://wrmin.nic.in/writereaddata/Inter-StateWaterDisputes/Volume-I1920752696.pdf">the Cauvery River</a>, for example, involves Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka – three major south Indian states. With each state demanding ever more water, the river simply cannot keep up. </p>
<p>In Karnataka, where agricultural policies are heavily skewed towards water-guzzling commercial crops, such as sugarcane, mismanaged ground and surface water are dying a slow death. Still the state continues to petition the Cauvery Water Dispute Tribunal for an increase in its share.</p>
<p>Water scarcity in Karnataka is aggravated by non-existent water quality management. Its rivers are choked with toxic pollutants, and oil-suffused <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/mar/01/burning-lakes-experts-fear-bangalore-uninhabitable-2025">lakes in Bengaluru, the capital, are reportedly catching fire</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, in the northern part of the country, the <a href="http://conflicts.indiawaterportal.org/sites/conflicts.indiawaterportal.org/files/conflicts_sutlej_yamuna.pdf">Ravi-Beas River is causing conflict between Punjab and Haryana</a> states.</p>
<p>In India’s water wars, rivers are a resource to be harnessed and extracted for each riparian party’s maximum benefit. Very little emphasis has been placed on conserving and protecting existing water sources. And not one inter-state negotiation has prioritised pollution abatement or demand management. </p>
<p>Even policies from the national government, which claims to target water conservation and demand management, remain reliant on supply-side solutions. Big infrastructure programs, such as the <a href="http://www.nwda.gov.in/index2.asp?slid=108&sublinkid=14&langid=1">Indian river-linking plan</a>, envision large-scale water transfer from one river basin to another, again seeking to augment supply rather than conserve water and reduce consumption.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173878/original/file-20170614-15456-1nv2bsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173878/original/file-20170614-15456-1nv2bsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173878/original/file-20170614-15456-1nv2bsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173878/original/file-20170614-15456-1nv2bsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173878/original/file-20170614-15456-1nv2bsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173878/original/file-20170614-15456-1nv2bsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173878/original/file-20170614-15456-1nv2bsf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sand mining on the Cauvery river in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/biligiri/32171616363/">Prashanth NS/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For inspiration on managing demand, India could look to <a href="http://www.switchurbanwater.eu/outputs/pdfs/W6-1_GEN_DEM_D6.1.6_Case_study_-_Berlin.pdf">Berlin in Germany</a>, <a href="http://www.iwra.org/congress/resource/abs461_article.pdf">Singapore</a> and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/2014WR016301/asset/wrcr21265.pdf?v=1&t=j3k9yxa8&s=ad80a977e0adfcdec9e214b6cc500a2a1227704c">California</a>, all of which have designed and implemented such policies in recent years. Successful measures include raising public awareness, recycling water, fixing leaks, preventing theft and implementing conservation measures such as water harvesting and stormwater management. </p>
<p>Between rapidly disappearing fresh water, unchecked pollution and so many thirsty citizens, India is facing an impending water crisis unlike anything prior generations have seen. If the nation does not begin aggressively conserving water, the faucets will run soon dry. There is simply no more supply to misuse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78372/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hit by weak monsoons, India faces unprecedented water shortages.Asit K. Biswas, Distinguished Visiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of SingaporeCecilia Tortajada, Senior Research Fellow, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of SingaporeUdisha Saklani, Independent Policy Researcher, National University of SingaporeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.