tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/border-control-7241/articlesBorder control – The Conversation2023-06-02T12:41:51Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2068382023-06-02T12:41:51Z2023-06-02T12:41:51ZMoldova is trying to join the EU, but it will have a hard time breaking away from Russia’s orbit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529663/original/file-20230601-16-2zus1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People take part in a pro-European Union rally in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, on May 21, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1256782825/photo/topshot-moldova-eu-politics-demo.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=XcZjMnXpVXJ7W2qHjqX0OHlchvE8s_jU2o6DGJtWhh4=">Elena Covalenco/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Moldova, one of Europe’s <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/moldova">poorest countries</a>, straddles Ukraine to its east and European Union countries to its west – placing it in an <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/26/europe/moldova-transnistria-russia-tensions-explainer-intl/index.html">arguably vulnerable position</a> in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.</p>
<p>But Moldova, a former Soviet republic, is increasingly signaling that it is aligning itself with the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/European-Union">European Union</a>.</p>
<p>Mimi Castle, a wine estate southeast of the Moldovan capital, Chisinau, was the site of a June 1, 2023, <a href="https://www.epcsummit2023.md">political meeting</a> of European leaders focused on security and stability in Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who <a href="https://apnews.com/article/european-summit-moldova-8ccd4d20bd3594e3f47de61dde12ece0">pressed for more Western aid</a> in the fight against Russia, was among the leaders who attended.</p>
<p>Moldova’s Western-leaning government has accused Russia of trying to block its entry into the European Union. But a top EU leader said recently that the organization would welcome Moldova with <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/21/pro-government-rally-in-moldovan-capital-draws-tens-of-thousands">“open arms and open hearts”</a>. </p>
<p>“Moldova <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/moldova-tens-of-thousands-gather-in-pro-eu-rally/a-65693417">does not want to be blackmailed</a> by the Kremlin,” Moldovan President Maia Sandu said during a pro-EU political rally in Chisinau on May 22. </p>
<p>“We don’t want to be on the outskirts of Europe anymore,” continued Sandu, who said her goal is that Moldova joins the EU by 2030. </p>
<p>One major complicating factor for Moldova, though, is that an eastern section of its territory, Transnistria, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18284837">has been occupied by Russian troops</a> since 1992. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://tatsianakulakevich.github.io">researcher on Eastern Europe,</a> I think it is important to understand the reasons Moldova might have a hard time breaking away from Russia’s orbit. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529661/original/file-20230601-15-iy1g1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits stand in a row with a woman in a teal dress and a man wearing camouflage green in front of a sign that says European Political Community Summit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529661/original/file-20230601-15-iy1g1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529661/original/file-20230601-15-iy1g1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529661/original/file-20230601-15-iy1g1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529661/original/file-20230601-15-iy1g1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529661/original/file-20230601-15-iy1g1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529661/original/file-20230601-15-iy1g1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529661/original/file-20230601-15-iy1g1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Moldova President Maia Sandu, second from left, stands with the Emmanuel Macron, president of France, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, prime minister of Ukraine, and Olaf Scholz, chancellor of Germany, at the European Political Community Summit in Moldova on June 1, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1258349862/photo/european-political-community-summit-in-moldova.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=PD1cV0SSrkz0vackBBSRH49lS5r24Zr6BaOSm0rm1cU=">Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Moldova’s population is split</h2>
<p>Moldova first applied to join the EU – <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/07/26/how-exactly-do-countries-join-the-eu/">a process that takes nine years,</a> on average – in March 2022, shortly after Russia launched a full invasion of Ukraine. </p>
<p>But the country’s population of <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/moldova-population">roughly 3.4 million people</a> is split on this move, according to the Moldovan polling company Magenta Consulting. </p>
<p>Approximately <a href="https://radiomoldova.md/p/7982/survey-nearly-half-of-moldova-s-population-supports-the-country-s-accession-to-the-eu">48% of the population</a> said in March 2023 that Moldova should join the European Union, while <a href="https://radiomoldova.md/p/7982/survey-nearly-half-of-moldova-s-population-supports-the-country-s-accession-to-the-eu">34% expressed</a> their support for maintaining ties with Russia. </p>
<p>Despite the citizens’ split sentiment, Moldova is already moving away from Russia. In May 2022, the government announced its desire to leave the Russian-led <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-leaving-cis-russia/32417644.html">Commonwealth of Independent States</a>, a regional political and economic group set up after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. </p>
<p>However, Russia still has political influence in Moldova.</p>
<p>A pro-Russian politician, for example, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/gutul-gagauzia-moldova-leader-shor-party/32412419.html">won an election for governor</a> in Gagauzia, an autonomous region in southern Moldova, in May 2022. </p>
<p>Sandu has also accused Russia of trying to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/moldova-protest-0ba8c2e7f4c681d077598e7713110fab">overthrow Moldova’s government</a> and replace it with a puppet regime picked by the Kremlin.</p>
<p><iframe id="sFWls" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/sFWls/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Resistance to corruption reform</h2>
<p>There are different conditions that countries need to meet before they formally start negotiations with EU countries to become part of the organization. </p>
<p>The European Commission has spelled out nine reforms it <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2023/03/21/moldova-to-target-corruption-with-new-court-for-major-cases/">wants Moldova to make</a> – six of them are focused on fighting corruption in the justice sector. <a href="https://knowledgehub.transparency.org/helpdesk/overview-of-corruption-in-moldova">Corruption in Moldova is widespread.</a></p>
<p>The Moldovan government is now undertaking a <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/moldova/european-union-and-republic-moldova_en?s=223">comprehensive reform</a> of its justice system, in advance of entering formal <a href="https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/eu-accession-negotiations-with-moldova-must-start-by-the-end-of-2023-parliament-says/">negotiations to join the EU</a> by the end of 2023. </p>
<p>However, some <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2023/03/28/in-moldovan-court-resignations-a-question-of-principles-or-pay/">Moldovan judges</a> are resisting efforts to make anti-corruption changes, which would include a pre-vetting system for potential judges. As a result, there have been widespread <a href="https://www.zdg.md/en/?p=10927">resignations of judges</a>, paralyzing the Supreme Court of Justice due to too few members remaining in office. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529665/original/file-20230601-17-2pfby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large group of people appear to attend a protest, with one person raising his hand in the air and people hold red, blue and yellow striped flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529665/original/file-20230601-17-2pfby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529665/original/file-20230601-17-2pfby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529665/original/file-20230601-17-2pfby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529665/original/file-20230601-17-2pfby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529665/original/file-20230601-17-2pfby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529665/original/file-20230601-17-2pfby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529665/original/file-20230601-17-2pfby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Pro-Russian demonstrators protest against the rising cost of living in Chisinau, Moldova, in March 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1248089746/photo/anti-government-protest-in-moldova-draws-thousands.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=fInDDbO7OOWpgy3jDKDPnOORmO5mkJ4NlYJvUNB3CU8=">Diego Herrera Carcedo/Andalou Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Lack of border control</h2>
<p>Another complicating factor in Moldova’s bid for EU membership is <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-things-to-know-about-moldova-and-transnistria-and-why-russias-war-in-ukraine-is-threatening-their-security-too-200982">Transnistria</a>, a pro-Russian breakaway region that separated from Moldova with the help of the Russian army after the fall of the Soviet Union. </p>
<p>The Transnistrian government has <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/transnistria/freedom-world/2019">de facto independence</a>, but other countries and the United Nations simply recognize it as as part of Moldova.</p>
<p>People living in Transnistria are largely Russian speakers, and the government is run by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/moldova-holds-security-meeting-as-tensions-rise-over-breakaway-region-transnistria">pro-Russian separatists</a>. </p>
<p>Russia also provides Transnistria with <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/26/five-things-to-know-about-russian-backed-transnistria">free natural gas</a> and has supported older people in the region with <a href="https://eurasianet.org/can-russia-afford-transnistria">pension money</a>.</p>
<p>The presence of Russian troops in Transnistria prevents Moldova from fully controlling its own borders. If activated, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64824517">combat-ready Russian troops</a> in Transnistria could quickly destabilize the region. </p>
<p>One condition for EU membership is border and territorial control. Without this, Moldova <a href="https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/joining-eu_en">cannot join the EU</a>. </p>
<h2>Cost-of-living crisis</h2>
<p>Moldova’s heavy reliance on food and <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/moldova-energy-profile">energy imports</a> from Ukraine and Russia made it vulnerable to conflict-related disruptions to food and energy supplies from Ukraine and Russia due to the war in Ukraine. </p>
<p>Moldova’s inflation rate reached an all-time high of <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/moldova/inflation-cpi">34.6% in October 2022</a>. The country’s inflation rate has since eased, but still <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/moldova/inflation-cpi">stands at 18%</a>. High living costs have sparked protests over the past several months, with people concerned about energy prices, but also about the ability to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/12/moldova-inflation-economy-energy-russia-invasion-ukraine">afford other necessities</a> like milk. </p>
<p>Unstable energy sources is another concern for Moldova.</p>
<p>Ukraine <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-russian-gas-ukrainian-electricity-energy-cuts-/32122094.html">cut its electricity exports</a> to Moldova after Russian missile strikes targeted the country’s energy infrastructure in 2022. And Russia <a href="https://www.zdg.md/stiri/stiri-sociale/precizarile-viceprim-ministrului-andrei-spinu-privind-evolutia-situatiei-energetice-din-r-moldova-nu-s-a-semnat-contract-de-livrare-a-energiei-electrice-cu-mgres/">cut the daily gas</a> it gave to Moldova by half in October 2022, resulting in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/12/moldova-inflation-economy-energy-russia-invasion-ukraine">electricity blackouts</a> and concern about the country running out of <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-russian-gas-ukrainian-electricity-energy-cuts-/32122094.html">power in the winter</a>. </p>
<p>In an attempt to escape Moscow’s orbit, Moldova started importing natural gas from other international sources, mainly <a href="https://warsawinstitute.org/moldova-is-becoming-independent-of-russian-gas-flows/">from Romania</a>, in December 2022. </p>
<p>The influx of Ukrainian refugees to Moldova has resulted in additional financial costs. Over <a href="https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine/location/10784">800,000 Ukrainian refugees</a> crossed the country’s eastern border – and 100,000 Ukrainians are now living in Moldova. </p>
<p>While the challenges faced by Moldova are significant, there is also reason to think it might join the EU. In April 2023, the European Union’s parliament <a href="https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/eu-accession-negotiations-with-moldova-must-start-by-the-end-of-2023-parliament-says/">reaffirmed its commitment to Moldova’s EU membership</a>. But some of Moldova’s problems, like lack of full territorial control and deep-rooted corruption, are unlikely to fade quickly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tatsiana Kulakevich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lack of control over its borders and corruption are two of the issues that could complicate Moldova’s bid to join the EU.Tatsiana Kulakevich, Associate Professor of Instruction in the School of Interdisciplinary Global Studies, Affiliate Professor at the Institute for Russian, European, and Eurasian Studies, University of South FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1846112022-06-09T12:42:15Z2022-06-09T12:42:15ZMigration to the US is on the rise again – but it’s unlikely to be fully addressed during the Summit of the Americas, or anytime soon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467814/original/file-20220608-19-3keq8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Migrants from Latin America are traveling through Mexico as part of a caravan heading to the U.S. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/migrants-from-latin-america-taking-part-in-a-caravan-towards-the-picture-id1241163983?s=2048x2048">Isaac Guzman/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>An estimated <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61685118">6,000 Latin American migrants</a> are traveling together through Mexico to reach the U.S. by foot and car, marking the largest caravan yet in 2022 of migrants traveling to the U.S. border. </p>
<p>Their journey coincides with the ninth <a href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/what-you-need-know-about-ninth-summit-americas">Summit of the Americas</a>, a regional meeting of country leaders from North, South and Central America that happens about once every three years. This forum grants political leaders an opportunity to discuss regional issues, like democracy and trade agreements, as a group. This year, the summit is taking place in Los Angeles and runs June 8-10. </p>
<p>Migration is a major issue that attendees, including President Joe Biden, will take up during the meeting, following calls for regional leaders to address the growing problems associated with it. </p>
<p>“These are countries collapsing from poverty and violence,” <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/6/us-bound-migrant-caravan-leaves-southern-mexico">caravan organizer Luis Garcia Villagran said</a> recently. “We strongly urge those who attend the summit … to look at what is happening, and what could happen even more often in Mexico if something is not done soon.” </p>
<p>As <a href="https://havel.fiu.edu/about-us/people/jack-maguire/">a migration expert</a> who has spent five years researching undocumented immigrants and other immigrants with different kinds of legal protection in the U.S., I think it is important to understand what the Biden administration has done to address migration, and how this has affected U.S. foreign relations with Latin American countries.</p>
<p>Here are three points that can help make sense of migration trends along the U.S.-Mexico border and their influence on regional politics.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467820/original/file-20220608-22-9m4bcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Antony Blinken is pictured at a long table with other men in suits, sitting in front of flags from Latin America." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467820/original/file-20220608-22-9m4bcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467820/original/file-20220608-22-9m4bcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467820/original/file-20220608-22-9m4bcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467820/original/file-20220608-22-9m4bcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467820/original/file-20220608-22-9m4bcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467820/original/file-20220608-22-9m4bcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467820/original/file-20220608-22-9m4bcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks at the Summit of the Americas meeting on June 8, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/secretary-of-state-antony-blinken-speaks-at-the-summit-of-the-of-picture-id1241179042?s=2048x2048">Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Why is migration a hot topic during the Summit of the Americas?</h2>
<p>Migration across South, Central and North America is on the rise – and has a significant effect on almost every country in the Western Hemisphere. These effects range from the money that migrants send back to their families in their country of origin to the role they play in labor markets. </p>
<p>Migration in the Americas has dramatically increased over the past decade due to <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/13/latin-america-alarming-reversal-basic-freedoms">deteriorating</a> political, economic and humanitarian conditions in several countries, particularly in <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chapters/venezuela">Venezuela</a>, <a href="https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/central-america/">El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2022/country-chapters/haiti">Haiti</a>.</p>
<p>High rates of crime, corruption, poverty, environmental degradation and violence all influence people’s decisions to migrate. The power of drug cartels, which can <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/juan-orlando-hern%C3%A1ndez-former-president-honduras-indicted-drug-trafficking">be embedded</a> in government institutions like the police, also plays a key role in prompting migration. </p>
<h2>What’s the latest on migration to the US?</h2>
<p>The rate of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border into the U.S. has grown at <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters?language_content_entity=en">a faster pace</a> during the Biden administration than in recent years under the Trump administration. </p>
<p>Immigration officials encountered <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters?language_content_entity=en">more than 1.7 million migrants</a> along the U.S. border in 2021, three times the number they reported in 2020. </p>
<p>Government agencies have reported encountering more than 1.2 million migrants along the border in 2022. However, this number is being <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/guide-title-42-expulsions-border">inflated</a>, because migrants often make repeated attempts to cross the border. Every “encounter” is recorded as a separate incident, even if the migrant had previously been apprehended and deported.</p>
<p>One significant reason for the uptick in migration is the COVID-19 pandemic, which initially caused a brief lull in migration in 2020. But the pandemic’s social and economic aftershocks <a href="https://www.hopeborder.org/noquedadeotra">worsened already-fragile</a> living conditions for many people in the Americas, pushing them to migrate. </p>
<p>Most of the migrants now arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border are from <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/2021-migration-us-mexico-border">four countries</a>: Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. </p>
<p>But the countries of origin of migrants entering the U.S. have <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/evolving-and-diversifying-nature-migration-us-mexico-border">changed</a> over the past decade. Now, large numbers of migrants from other countries like Cuba, Haiti and Venezuela – as well as <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmith/2022/04/18/over-3000-ukrainians-encountered-at-us-mexico-border-in-march-amid-migration-surge/?sh=694e209776ed">migrants from Ukraine</a> fleeing the war – routinely try to cross into the U.S. from Mexico. </p>
<h2>What’s happened to migration under Biden?</h2>
<p>During his presidential campaign in 2020, Biden <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/biden-vowed-to-fix-americas-immigration-system-heres-what-he-achieved-in-his-first-year">pledged to undo</a> former President Donald Trump’s immigration actions, and to adopt a more humane approach. Shortly after Biden took office in January 2021, he stopped construction on the U.S.-Mexico border wall and ended travel bans on people from specific countries. </p>
<p>The Biden administration has tried to keep its commitments to voters and immigrants’ rights activists, while also <a href="https://thehill.com/latino/600074-biden-budget-accelerates-shift-from-trump-policies-on-immigration/">increasing spending </a> on the Border Patrol and other government agencies focused on tracking, apprehending and processing migrants once they cross the border.</p>
<p>The Biden administration has attempted, but failed, due to <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/migrant-protection-protocols">court</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/20/judge-blocks-biden-administration-from-lifting-title-42-border-policy-00034195">rulings</a>, to lift asylum restrictions that the Trump administration implemented. </p>
<p>One of these asylum restrictions is an obscure public health order <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/guide-title-42-expulsions-border">called Title 42</a> that was enacted in March 2020, ostensibly to curb the spread of COVID-19 into the U.S. This allows migration enforcement to rapidly deport migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border, without allowing them to access their legal right to apply for asylum to stay in the U.S.</p>
<p>Over <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/guide-title-42-expulsions-border">1.8 million</a> deportations have taken place under Title 42. However, that number <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/guide-title-42-expulsions-border">does not </a>reflect the total number of individual people deported since 2020, as the same people crossing the border multiple times drives up the total number of reported deportations.</p>
<p>A second asylum restriction was a Trump-era program that requires asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while their claims are processed. In December 2021, the U.S. and Mexico announced <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/12/02/immigrants-remain-in-mexico-policy-restart-asylum/">they would restart</a> that program in compliance with a <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/migrant-protection-protocols">U.S. court order</a>that blocked the Biden administration’s attempt to end it.</p>
<p>The Biden administration is also trying to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/biden-border-migrants-expulsion-flights/2021/08/06/1acd2762-f6f5-11eb-83e7-06a8a299c310_story.html">increase</a> cooperation with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexican-president-says-discussed-labor-migration-with-us-official-2022-03-14/">Mexican</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/12/biden-migration-security-deal-mexico-guatemala-honduras">Central American</a> authorities to stop migrants before they reach the United States. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467821/original/file-20220608-26-adtwu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Customs and Border Protection pick up truck is shown in front of the US-Mexico border wall. A man stands next to the wall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467821/original/file-20220608-26-adtwu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467821/original/file-20220608-26-adtwu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467821/original/file-20220608-26-adtwu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467821/original/file-20220608-26-adtwu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467821/original/file-20220608-26-adtwu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467821/original/file-20220608-26-adtwu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467821/original/file-20220608-26-adtwu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A U.S. Border Patrol agent walks nearby a border wall between the United States and Mexico in Yuma, Arizona, on June 1, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/border-patrol-agent-walks-between-a-gap-along-the-border-wall-between-picture-id1241135212?s=2048x2048">Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What, if anything, could come out of this meeting?</h2>
<p>On June 7, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/7/us-begins-summit-of-the-america-week-with-funds-to-stem-migration">announced $1.9 billion </a> in commitments from companies to provide jobs for people in Mexico, Central and South America – and to potentially dissuade them from migrating to the U.S. </p>
<p>Migration is set to be the focus of discussions at this forum on June 10. </p>
<p>But the meeting, so far, has mostly attracted public attention because the U.S. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-excludes-cuba-venezuela-nicaragua-americas-summit-sources-2022-06-06/">did not invite</a> the autocratic leaders of Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba to the event, citing human rights concerns. In response, the presidents of Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala are boycotting the forum. </p>
<p>Some experts have criticized the U.S. for <a href="https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status/1534139107504541696">not bringing a clear immigration</a> policy proposal to the table at the meeting.</p>
<p>Regardless of any outcome regarding immigration during this Summit of the Americas, migration to the U.S. will continue. </p>
<p>The conditions driving migrants to the U.S. – like violence, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-is-driving-emigration-from-central-america-121525">climate change</a> and limited work opportunities – are simply too big to solve through any one agreement or set of policy decisions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184611/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Maguire does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US is convening Latin American countries in Los Angeles this week to discuss major regional issues. An expert explains 3 key things to know about one top concern – migration.Jack Maguire, Ph. D Candidate, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1758862022-02-22T13:42:11Z2022-02-22T13:42:11ZMore migrants are dying along the US-Mexico border, but it’s hard to say how big the problem actually is<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446824/original/file-20220216-17-v7vor5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C75%2C2513%2C1538&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Spanish-language sign warns migrants along the U.S.-Mexico border against explsing themselves to the dangerous elements in the desert. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/warning-sign-on-the-usmexico-border-in-spanish-warns-that-hundreds-of-picture-id528985284?s=2048x2048">David Howells/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At least 650 migrants died crossing the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/politics/migrants-dying-crossing-us-mexico-border/index.html">U.S.-Mexico border in 2021</a>, according to the International Organization for Migration, a United Nations agency that monitors migration. </p>
<p>The figure marks an all-time annual high since the U.S. government began reporting U.S.-Mexico <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2019-Mar/bp-southwest-border-sector-deaths-fy1998-fy2018.pdf">border deaths in 1998.</a> </p>
<p>U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which estimates migrant deaths over a slightly different time frame, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/29/politics/border-patrol-record-border-deaths-fiscal-year-2021/index.html">reported that</a> 557 migrants died along the border from October 2020 through September 2021. </p>
<p>But there is one important caveat to the new estimates. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://missingmigrants.iom.int/">International Organization for Migration</a> has noted that “all (migrant death) figures remain undercounts.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446794/original/file-20220216-15-15airud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People wearing backpacks are shown walking in a desert, with a graffiti-covered fence ahead of them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446794/original/file-20220216-15-15airud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446794/original/file-20220216-15-15airud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446794/original/file-20220216-15-15airud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446794/original/file-20220216-15-15airud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446794/original/file-20220216-15-15airud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446794/original/file-20220216-15-15airud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446794/original/file-20220216-15-15airud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Central American migrants head to the border fence to cross from Tijuana, Mexico, to San Diego County in the U.S. in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/central-american-migrants-head-to-the-border-fence-to-cross-from-in-picture-id1075382326?s=2048x2048">Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Families left behind to ask questions</h2>
<p>Currently a <a href="https://cisneros.columbian.gwu.edu/courtney-riggle-van-schagen">researcher and doctoral student</a> in public health, I am also a licensed clinical social worker who works with immigrants, and I have spent years listening to people’s migration experiences. I understand the fear and desperation that drives people across the border and why it is difficult to know how many migrants actually die trying to reach the U.S.</p>
<p>Migration trends along the U.S.-Mexico border have recently shifted. A majority of people <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/getting-migration-americas-right/">crossing the border</a> are not from Mexico, having traveled instead from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. </p>
<p>People migrate and attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border for complicated reasons, <a href="https://theconversation.com/central-american-kids-come-to-the-us-fleeing-record-high-youth-murder-rates-at-home-99132">including violence</a> and lack of work opportunities in their home countries.</p>
<p>But the journey across Central America and Mexico — or farther away, in some cases — is also rife with the potential of violence, <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/news-stories/news/no-way-out-msf-report-shows-damaging-health-impacts-us-mexico">including sexual assault and abduction</a>. </p>
<p>Correctly counting migrant deaths matters. It can inform U.S. immigration and foreign policy, by determining whether the U.S. should send more aid to Central America to help stem migration flows, for example.</p>
<p>When migrants die crossing the border, it is often families who are left behind to ask questions and to tell their missing relatives’ stories. But sometimes immigrants’ fear of detention and deportation prevents them from talking to <a href="https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/fataljourneys_countingtheuncounted.pdf">migration officials altogether</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="fPR5U" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fPR5U/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>‘An unprecedented militarization’</h2>
<p>Over the past three decades, legislators have steadily increased the federal <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/the-cost-of-immigration-enforcement-and-border-security">budget for border patrol enforcement activities</a> along the nearly 2,000-mile stretch of arid land that makes up the U.S.-Mexico border.</p>
<p>U.S. border enforcement funding has increased from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2331502418786718">$1.935 billion</a> in 1997 to $21.1 billion in 2018.</p>
<p>Working with Dr. Elizabeth Vaquera, sociologist and director of the GW Cisneros Hispanic Leadership Institute, we identified research showing that in 1997 there were <a href="https://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/143/include/rep143table2.html">6,321 agents</a> assigned to patrol the southwestern border. <a href="https://zolberginstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Border-Enforcement-Developments-Since-1993-and-How-to-Change-CBP.pdf">By 2011</a>, more than 21,000 border patrol agents were stationed there. The number remained at nearly <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2021-Aug/U.S.%20Border%20Patrol%20Fiscal%20Year%20Staffing%20Statistics%20%28FY%201992%20-%20FY%202020%29%20%28508%29.pdf">17,000</a> from October 2019 through September 2020.</p>
<p>As border patrol presence has increased along the U.S.-Mexico border, migrants have <a href="https://www.wola.org/analysis/mexico-southern-border-report/#trendsin">adopted new travel routes</a>, pushing them into more remote, treacherous parts of the desert. If border patrol agents apprehend migrants, they will detain and potentially deport them. </p>
<p>Once migrants stray deep into the Sonoran Desert or attempt to forge the Rio Grande River, though, they are much more likely to die than if they take more frequented routes. Exposure to <a href="https://archive.thinkprogress.org/what-its-really-like-to-cross-the-u-s-mexico-border-a375d80f3cc/#:%7E:text=Most%20sections%20of%20America%E2%80%99s%20southern%20border%20regularly%20report,their%20best%20to%20be%20prepared%20for%20such%20conditions.">extreme heat,</a> cold, dehydration, venomous spiders or snakes, exhaustion and injury are all common risks. </p>
<h2>Undercounting migrant deaths</h2>
<p>Undercounting is not a new problem. But the likelihood of migrants’ bodies being recovered, and counted, has dropped as migrants travel along more desolate paths. Migrant bodies have been discovered in <a href="https://tucson.com/news/local/migrant-deaths-data-analysis-and-limitations/article_a385a946-f964-11eb-ac2e-23f8af9cea0e.html">increasingly remote areas</a>, farther from roads, towns and cellphone service, since 1990.</p>
<p>The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracks deaths in the U.S. But there is no U.S. government agency devoted to tracking migrant deaths, even if they happen on U.S. soil.</p>
<p>U.S. Customs and Border Patrol reports border crossing deaths, but only if border patrol agents recover the bodies.</p>
<p>This leaves bodies recovered by other law enforcement agencies, humanitarian groups, or private citizens unaccounted for, and often unidentified. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446805/original/file-20220216-25-1t5j4z1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446805/original/file-20220216-25-1t5j4z1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446805/original/file-20220216-25-1t5j4z1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446805/original/file-20220216-25-1t5j4z1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446805/original/file-20220216-25-1t5j4z1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446805/original/file-20220216-25-1t5j4z1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446805/original/file-20220216-25-1t5j4z1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446805/original/file-20220216-25-1t5j4z1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A funeral director and Texas police officer move the body of an El Salvadorian migrant who died trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in June 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/alonzo-rangel-left-funeral-director-of-funeraria-del-angel-and-brooks-picture-id1234303479?s=2048x2048">Gary Coronado/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A rise in migrant deaths</h2>
<p>While the number of migrants apprehended along the U.S.-Mexico border has continued to decrease since the mid-2000s, the <a href="https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/fataljourneys_countingtheuncounted.pdf">number of recorded deaths has continued to rise</a>. </p>
<p>Although Customs and Border Protection acknowledges an increase in migrant deaths over the past few years, investigative findings by <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2017/12/14/investigation-border-patrol-undercounts-deaths-border-crossing-migrants/933689001/">USA Today</a> in 2017 suggested that the problem may be much worse.</p>
<p>The number of migrant deaths along the U.S.-Mexico border may have been anywhere from <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2017/12/14/investigation-border-patrol-undercounts-deaths-border-crossing-migrants/933689001/">25% to 300%</a> higher than official totals from 2012-2016, the USA Today investigation found. </p>
<p>Nonprofit humanitarian organizations like the <a href="https://southtexashumanrights.org/">South Texas Human Rights Center</a> and <a href="https://humaneborders.org/">Humane Borders</a> provide information on search and rescue operations for missing migrants and use <a href="https://humaneborders.info/app/map_ml.asp">data to map deceased migrants</a>. </p>
<p>But these groups’ <a href="https://humaneborders.org/wp-content/uploads/HB-2020-Form-990EZ-Package-as-efiled-online.pdf">staffing and funding</a> are not sufficient to comprehensively track migrant deaths and cannot replace the work of a government agency responsible for tracking this ongoing problem. </p>
<p>[<em>Understand what’s going on in Washington.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175886/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The number of migrants dying while trying to cross the US-Mexico border is at an all-time high. But these figures are still likely an underestimate.Courtney Riggle-van Schagen, DrPH Student in Prevention and Community Health; Licensed Clinical Social Worker, George Washington UniversityElizabeth Vaquera, Director of Cisneros Hispanic Leadership Institute, George Washington UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1729372021-12-07T17:56:39Z2021-12-07T17:56:39ZThe uninvited Christmas guest: is New Zealand prepared for Omicron’s inevitable arrival?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435987/original/file-20211207-138695-19lhbnm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C110%2C2164%2C1304&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Hallett/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As New Zealand gets ready for the festive season under the new <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/traffic-lights/covid-19-protection-framework/">traffic light system</a>, the emergence of the <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/nsw-health-says-ninth-case-of-omicron-detected-in-the-state-has-no-links-to-overseas-travel-c-4797516">Omicron</a> variant is a reminder this pandemic is far from over. </p>
<p>The new <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern">variant of concern</a> is already fuelling a new wave of infections in South Africa and there is <a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1467915173554003978">some evidence</a> hospitalisations are increasing. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Data from the South African COVID-19 monitoring consortium show the impact of the Omicron variant." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435716/original/file-20211205-13-l63xwm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435716/original/file-20211205-13-l63xwm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435716/original/file-20211205-13-l63xwm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435716/original/file-20211205-13-l63xwm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435716/original/file-20211205-13-l63xwm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435716/original/file-20211205-13-l63xwm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435716/original/file-20211205-13-l63xwm.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data from the South African COVID-19 monitoring consortium show the impact of the Omicron variant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">SACMC Epidemic Explorer</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Omicron has already <a href="https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/omicron-australia-covid-updates-who-official-hints-at-new-data-on-variant/news-story/e5f9beeddd16e74c63eb24a4ca32ed4e">arrived in Australia</a> and the question now is whether it will get to New Zealand during the summer holiday season and potentially affect plans for border openings. </p>
<p>New Zealand is currently planning to start <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/reconnecting-new-zealand-%E2%80%93-next-steps">opening its borders</a> and allowing quarantee-free entry from early 2022, first to fully vaccinated New Zealand citizens arriving from Australia after January 16, and then for New Zealanders arriving from all other countries after mid-February. There’s already some discussion about whether this plan may have to be reviewed.</p>
<p>Omicron contains 32 mutations in the spike protein alone. These are <a href="https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/africa?l=scatter&scatterY=S1_mutations">mutations</a> that may make the virus more transmissible and better at evading immunity. There is also some evidence to suggest it poses a <a href="https://www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2021/12/03/previous-covid-19-infection-may-not-protect-against-omicron-expert-reaction/">higher risk of reinfection</a>. </p>
<p>Other <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-children-hospitalised-with-moderate-to-severe-symptoms/QCNS4VJU3H2WEN3UOJU5PEZXYM/">anecdotal evidence</a> suggests more children are being hospitalised with moderate to severe symptoms with Omicron. </p>
<p>However, it is still too early to draw any firm conclusions. Data over the next few weeks will help determine the variant’s full impact. </p>
<h2>Delta has taught us important lessons</h2>
<p>New Zealand’s <a href="https://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/the-next-phase-in-aotearoa-new-zealands-covid-19-response-tight-suppression-may-be-optimal-for-health-equity-and-wellbeing-in-the-months-ahead">elimination strategy</a> resulted in <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34739509/">good economic performance</a>, the <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3875655">lowest COVID-19 mortality in the OECD</a> and <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-066768">increases in life expectancy</a>. However, the emergence of the <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-public/about-covid-19/covid-19-about-delta-variant">Delta variant</a> forced us to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag5ubS_EHWU">abandon</a> that strategy. </p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, Delta also taught us that when new variants emerge, <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/animated-world-map">they do not stay in one place</a> for very long. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1466242996891013124"}"></div></p>
<p>So, how prepared is New Zealand?</p>
<p>In the short term, New Zealand is well placed to deal with Omicron. Our strong <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127131310/covid19-omicron-officials-looking-into-extra-border-measures">border controls</a>, testing and rapid genome sequencing mean that when Omicron arrives <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-nzs-tough-border-controls-may-protect-against-new-variant-michael-baker/YUGFACL5OJWCSCDUUFKDFSGTEI/">at our border</a>, we can respond quickly and prevent community incursion. </p>
<p>It is unlikely it will be our unwanted guest this Christmas. Despite this, significant challenges lie ahead in the long term, including vaccination inequity and disruptions to routine healthcare. </p>
<h2>Percentage of the double vaccinated</h2>
<p><strong>Click the button in the top right corner to expand the interactive map – then swipe down for Māori vaccination rates and up for the overall population to compare.</strong></p>
<iframe src="https://ucnz.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/media/index.html?appid=954778bf76cd4b75ab41b243f14d6149" width="100%" height="450" frameborder="0" style="border:0" allowfullscreen="">iFrames are not supported on this page.</iframe>
<p>In several regions, including Auckland and Canterbury, 90% of the eligible population are now <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#90pct">fully vaccinated</a>. High vaccination rates may blunt the extent of future potential waves of infection, but significant inequities in vaccination levels remain. </p>
<p>We know that vaccinated people transmit COVID-19 <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext">less than</a> unvaccinated people, but only 70% of Māori have received <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data">both doses</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-new-covid-variants-like-omicron-linked-to-low-vaccine-coverage-heres-what-the-science-says-170262">Are new COVID variants like Omicron linked to low vaccine coverage? Here's what the science says</a>
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<hr>
<p>Even without COVID-19 spread widely, there is already <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/457178/pharmacists-stretched-thin-distributing-vaccine-passes">pressure</a> on <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/456116/icu-surge-capacity-nurses-question-training-and-numbers">hospital capacity</a> and <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/457098/644-million-boost-as-icu-and-hospitals-brace-for-widespread-covid-19">staff</a> with <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/hawkes-bay/127156722/surgeries-cancelled-as-beds-fill-up-at-hawkes-bay-hospital">delayed surgeries now more common</a>, be that in <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/hawkes-bay/127156722/surgeries-cancelled-as-beds-fill-up-at-hawkes-bay-hospital">Hawke’s Bay</a>, <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300373502/code-red-issued-for-dunedin-hospital-after-spike-in-patient-numbers">Dunedin</a> or <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300372474/surgeries-delayed-long-waits-in-emergency-department-due-to-spike-in-patients">Christchurch</a>. </p>
<p>So far, New Zealand has been luckier than other countries where <a href="https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/science-health/954825/extra-non-covid-deaths-increase">concerns are growing</a> about disruptions to routine healthcare. <a href="https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2021/november/record-numbers-waiting-over-six-weeks-vital-heart-scans">Delays</a> may leave patients with treatable conditions suffering illnesses that <a href="https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/pandemic-effect-on-heart-patients">can become fatal</a>. </p>
<p>New Zealand has one of the <a href="https://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/new-zealands-staffed-icu-bed-capacity-and-covid-19-surge-capacity">lowest ICU capacities</a> in the world. While the government has announced $644 million to <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/funding-extra-icu-capacity">raise ICU capacity</a>, it will <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/457148/icu-funding-may-be-too-much-too-late-health-professionals">take time to build capacity and train staff</a>. </p>
<p>Although unlikely, should Omicron breach our border <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126158263/covid19-a-timeline-of-the-delta-outbreak">like Delta did</a>, it will have to be tackled against the backdrop of trying to manage the current Delta outbreak. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/456967/covid-19-briefing-children-aged-5-11-may-be-able-to-get-vaccine-doses-from-end-of-january">Child</a> vaccinations are set to start at the end of January. However, low vaccination levels are often in areas where health provision and hospitals <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/covid-19/23-11-2021/the-worry-is-being-completely-overwhelmed-nz-regions-brace-for-a-covid-summer">are a long way away</a>. This will need to be incorporated into the rollout strategy to ensure <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300461792/how-does-covid19-affect-children-and-how-can-we-keep-them-safe">equitable childhood</a> vaccination rates. </p>
<h2>Looking forward to Christmas and beyond</h2>
<p>The Auckland border will <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-maori-leaders-ask-people-to-stay-away-from-regions-with-lower-vaccination-rates/TRGPCUYAAVPDZHZWC34G6ZUBYY/">lift</a> on December 15 and many are bracing themselves for a <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/covid-19/23-11-2021/the-worry-is-being-completely-overwhelmed-nz-regions-brace-for-a-covid-summer">COVID summer</a>. Calls for <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/12/04/siouxsie-wiles-encourages-staycation-for-aucklanders/">staycations</a> have emerged as popular summer holiday spots such as <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300465501/covid19-iwi-close-popular-northland-holiday-spot-over-summer">Matai Bay close</a> and iwi are asking people to stay away from some destinations. </p>
<p>Our analysis by regional tourism areas in the map below supports this. It shows most regional tourism areas have low vaccination rates, especially for Māori and Pacific peoples.</p>
<p><strong>Click the button in the top right corner to expand the interactive map – then swipe down for Māori and Pacific peoples vaccination rates and up to compare to overall population.</strong></p>
<iframe src="https://ucnz.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/media/index.html?appid=1a5ab0b5950c4341ba6e0f3a72b9522e" width="100%" height="450" frameborder="0" style="border:0" allowfullscreen="">iFrames are not supported on this page.</iframe>
<p>As New Zealand heads into the holiday season, <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/48766-COVID-19-Protection-Framework-Guidance-for-the-primary-sector">public health measures</a> such as mask wearing, physical distancing, hand hygiene, contact tracing, case isolation and vaccination will remain essential. </p>
<p>Mandating the <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300399796/nz-is-introducing-mandatory-record-keeping-to-help-contact-tracers-but-is-the-data-protected-enough">COVID tracer app</a> increased the number of scans while less than 1% of paid staff at St John’s ambulance service left due to the <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127122945/vaccine-mandate-314-staff-volunteers-have-left-st-john">vaccine mandate</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Number of scans recorded on the NZ COVID Tracer app" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435508/original/file-20211203-17-8v7tix.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435508/original/file-20211203-17-8v7tix.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435508/original/file-20211203-17-8v7tix.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435508/original/file-20211203-17-8v7tix.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435508/original/file-20211203-17-8v7tix.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435508/original/file-20211203-17-8v7tix.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435508/original/file-20211203-17-8v7tix.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/28/world/omicron-coronavirus-variant-vaccine-inequity-intl-cmd/index.html">Some experts</a> have suggested the emergence of Omicron could be a result of low levels of vaccine coverage in developing nations.</p>
<p>The root of this is that the world <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300468456/omicron-why-were-running-out-of-greek-letters-for-covid">isn’t doing enough</a> to stop the spread of COVID-19. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-new-covid-variants-like-omicron-linked-to-low-vaccine-coverage-heres-what-the-science-says-170262">Are new COVID variants like Omicron linked to low vaccine coverage? Here's what the science says</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>While some countries, including New Zealand, have had domestic success at controlling COVID-19, wealthy countries around the world continue to <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/28/world/omicron-coronavirus-variant-vaccine-inequity-intl-cmd/index.html">hoard vaccines</a>. This ultimately gives the virus more opportunities to replicate and <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.03.454981v4">mutate</a>. </p>
<p>Omicron should act as a <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127134932/covid19-omicron-variant-shows-pandemic-is-not-over-everyone-should-be-wide-awake-to-threat-who-boss-says">wake-up call</a> to ensure worldwide equitable vaccine delivery before even more concerning variants <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/in-the-loop-helen-clark-criticises-vaccine-inequity-as-omicron-variant-spreads/R4FACSAWQ3RKX4GZ42EM4U4K64/">emerge</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172937/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Hobbs receives funding from New Zealand Health Research Council, A Better Start National Science Challenge, Cure Kids and IStar for this research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lukas Marek has previously received funding from the Ministry of Health. </span></em></p>Omicron may soon arrive at the border, but New Zealand hopes to keep it out of the community through border controls, testing requirements and rapid genome sequencing of any positive cases.Matthew Hobbs, Senior Lecturer in Public Health and Co-Director of the GeoHealth Laboratory, University of CanterburyLukas Marek, Researcher and lecturer in Spatial Data Science, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1728022021-11-29T11:26:42Z2021-11-29T11:26:42ZBorder opening for skilled workers, students delayed a fortnight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434418/original/file-20211129-19-1lscnf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C340%2C3006%2C1841&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Mackintosh/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Morrison government has delayed its plan to open the international border on Wednesday to skilled workers and students, as it awaits more information about the Omicron variant of COVID.</p>
<p>Cabinet’s national security committee on Monday night paused the reopening – that also included humanitarian, worker holiday makers, and provisional family visa holders – until December 15.</p>
<p>The reopening to travellers from Japan and South Korea will also be deferred.</p>
<p>On Tuesday the national cabinet will meet to discuss the latest development in the pandemic.</p>
<p>The government said that in deferring the border opening it was acting on the advice provided by the Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly. The pause would ensure time to gather the information needed “to better understand the Omicron variant”, including how effective the vaccines are against it.</p>
<p>Currently the border is closed to all but vaccinated Australian citizens and permanent residents and their families and vaccinated “green lane” travellers from Singapore and New Zealand.</p>
<p>The deferral is a blow for businesses facing serious shortages of workers. In a comment in anticipation of the deferral Innes Willox, chief executive of the Australian Industry Group said, “We need to avoid jumping at shadows as every new COVID variant appears.</p>
<p>"COVID is in the community whether it is Delta or Omicron or whatever the next variant will be. Rather than more stimulus, the best support for business will come from sticking to the living- with-COVID plan and keeping our state and international borders open.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-scott-morrison-warns-disorderly-troops-against-putting-a-smile-on-labors-face-172423">View from The Hill: Scott Morrison warns disorderly troops against putting 'a smile on Labor's face'</a>
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<hr>
<p>On Wednesday the September quarter national account figures will be released that will show the economy going backwards in that quarter due to lockdowns. But on all the evidence it has been recovering strongly since.</p>
<p>With a handul of cases of the Omicron variant now in Australia the government is cautiously optimistic that it may be a mild illness but is taking no chances.</p>
<p>Health Minister Greg Hunt said: “This may be a mild version of the disease. It’s still COVID, it’s still dangerous, but there may be some quiet positive hope in what’s emerging, but it’s too early to make a definitive call”.</p>
<p>He has asked the Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation to review the current period between second vaccine doses and the booster shot, which is six months. The government has plenty of boosters available and would bring them forward if that were the advice.</p>
<h2>Budget on March 29</h2>
<p>Meanwhile the government issued the parliamentary sitting calendar for next year, that puts the budget on March 29, which would mean a May election.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison has been signalling recently he wants another budget before the election, although some believe it would be wiser to go to the polls in March, thus avoiding having parliament sit again after this week.</p>
<p>When an interviewer on Monday referred to a March election, Morrison said, “the election is due by the third week in May”.</p>
<p>Opposition leader Anthony Albanese told the ABC the calendar showed “it’s likely, even if there’s a budget, that we will sit a grand total of 10 days the House of Reps and five days the Senate in the first six months of next year”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172802/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Morrison government has delayed its plan to open the international border on Wednesday to skilled workers and students, as it awaits more information about the Omicron variant of COVID. Cabinet’s national…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1593252021-04-20T23:12:11Z2021-04-20T23:12:11ZWhy strict border control remains crucial if we want to keep the travel bubble safe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395968/original/file-20210420-19-1o1i5a5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=52%2C179%2C4940%2C3143&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images/Mark Tantrum</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the opening of a quarantine-free travel corridor between New Zealand and Australia this week, it’s easy to forget COVID-19 is still spreading globally, faster than ever, with <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">more than three million deaths</a> recorded worldwide. </p>
<p>Within a day of the travel bubble opening, a <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300281691/covid19-auckland-airport-border-worker-tests-positive-sixteen-close-contacts?rm=a">fully vaccinated border worker</a> who cleans planes coming from countries with high rates of COVID-19, tested positive and was transferred to a quarantine facility. </p>
<p>Such cases show why it remains absolutely essential to maintain strict border measures to keep the virus out of the trans-Tasman bubble.</p>
<p>Since January 1 2021, <a href="https://nzcoviddashboard.esr.cri.nz/#!/source">397 international arrivals</a> in New Zealand have tested positive for the virus. Most have been contained in managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) facilities. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cases detected at the border" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395898/original/file-20210420-23-180v7zh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395898/original/file-20210420-23-180v7zh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395898/original/file-20210420-23-180v7zh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395898/original/file-20210420-23-180v7zh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395898/original/file-20210420-23-180v7zh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395898/original/file-20210420-23-180v7zh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395898/original/file-20210420-23-180v7zh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nzcoviddashboard.esr.cri.nz/">ESR</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>But we have seen some cases leak out from the border. These fall into two main categories: returnees leaving managed isolation while still infectious and frontline border workers becoming infected with the virus.</p>
<p>To consider the effectiveness of various border policies, we pulled together data on transmission of COVID-19 and rates of false negative test results into a mathematical model. The <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsif/doi/10.1098/rsif.2021.0063">research</a>, published today, allowed us to quantify the risk of community outbreaks under different quarantine and testing regimes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Outside a quarantine hotel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395954/original/file-20210420-13-1d49lxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395954/original/file-20210420-13-1d49lxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395954/original/file-20210420-13-1d49lxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395954/original/file-20210420-13-1d49lxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395954/original/file-20210420-13-1d49lxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395954/original/file-20210420-13-1d49lxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395954/original/file-20210420-13-1d49lxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People returning from countries other than Australia have to spend 14 days in isolation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images/Phil Walter</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Managing risk from international arrivals</h2>
<p>Our research shows that a 14-day stay in managed isolation, with tests on day three and day 12, is highly effective in stopping international arrivals from re-introducing COVID-19 into the community. Under this regime, most border cases are either detected and isolated until recovery, or are no longer infectious by the end of their 14-day stay.</p>
<p>By comparison, reducing the time spent in managed isolation would greatly increase the risk. We found that with a five-day stay, around 25% of cases would still be infectious when they entered the community. </p>
<p>Given recent arrival numbers, this would mean multiple border-related cases in the community every week. Sooner or later a major outbreak like Auckland’s August cluster would be inevitable.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/genome-sequencing-tells-us-the-auckland-outbreak-is-a-single-cluster-except-for-one-case-144721">Genome sequencing tells us the Auckland outbreak is a single cluster — except for one case</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Managing risk from frontline border workers</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Border workers in the arrival hall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395966/original/file-20210420-21-qlu8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395966/original/file-20210420-21-qlu8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395966/original/file-20210420-21-qlu8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395966/original/file-20210420-21-qlu8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395966/original/file-20210420-21-qlu8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1120&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395966/original/file-20210420-21-qlu8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1120&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395966/original/file-20210420-21-qlu8nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1120&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The virus can leak into the community if border workers become infected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images/Paul Kane</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The research also looked at various testing regimes for frontline border workers. We found that weekly routine testing roughly doubles the chance an infection will be detected while it still has a clear link to the border. </p>
<p>The recent <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/covid-19/438993/grand-millennium-miq-in-spotlight-once-again">case of a worker</a> at the Grand Millenium MIQ facility was an example of this. </p>
<p>When we find a case with a clear link to the border, typically only a small number of people are infected. The outbreak can usually be contained through contact tracing without the need to raise the alert level.</p>
<p>On the other hand, if border workers are not tested regularly, it increases the chance the outbreak could spread into the community. This means a large number of people could be infected by the time the outbreak is detected. This is why, when we find a new case with no clear link to the border, it tends to prompt a more serious response. </p>
<p>Overall, our results show regular routine testing of border workers is essential in minimising the risk of community outbreaks and reducing the need for lockdowns to control them.</p>
<h2>Stopping spread within managed isolation facilities</h2>
<p>Transmission of the virus between people staying in managed isolation creates a risk that returnees could catch the virus there and remain infectious when they complete their stay. An example of this happened at the Pullman Hotel in January, when a <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-northland-community-case-a-56yo-woman-too-early-for-call-on-response/YVSVIH27IQ3SMZSCV5U3ZCMED4/">woman who had recently left the facility</a> tested positive. </p>
<p>Genome sequencing then showed she had been <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/124046027/covid19-everything-we-know-about-the-northland-community-case">infected by another guest</a> at the Pullman sometime during their stay. </p>
<p>To minimise transmission within managed isolation, it’s important we detect cases as early as possible. The data we analysed showed that prior to November, we were picking up around 70% of cases in the first week after arrival. Since January, this has increased to around 85%, helped by the <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/additional-actions-keep-covid-19-out-nz">introduction of day 0/1 tests</a>. </p>
<p>But our systems are still not perfect, as recent cases in two MIQ facilities have shown. <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/19-04-2021/live-updates-april-19-milestone-morrison-and-ardern-celebrate-win-win-trans-tasman-bubble/">Emptying out these facilities</a> to allow a thorough check of the ventilation systems is a good move. We know that poorly ventilated corridors allow the virus to linger in the air, which has led to <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/5/21-0514_article">transmission between guests in adjacent rooms</a> in the past.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Border staff getting ready to be vaccinated." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395956/original/file-20210420-23-g72q5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395956/original/file-20210420-23-g72q5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395956/original/file-20210420-23-g72q5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395956/original/file-20210420-23-g72q5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395956/original/file-20210420-23-g72q5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395956/original/file-20210420-23-g72q5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395956/original/file-20210420-23-g72q5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most border workers have now received the vaccine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images/Ministry of Health</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vaccination of border workers</h2>
<p>Most border staff have now been vaccinated. This will reduce the health risks for this group, which has the highest exposure to COVID-19 of anyone in New Zealand. </p>
<p>The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine being used in New Zealand looks to be <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790399">highly effective in reducing transmission</a> as well as disease. Vaccinating frontline workers will therefore also provide an additional layer of defence at the border.</p>
<p>But since the rest of the population is mostly unvaccinated, we still need to guard against the real risk of a major outbreak if the virus does get out into the community. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vaccination-alone-will-not-provide-full-protection-when-borders-open-nz-will-still-be-managing-covid-19-158414">Vaccination alone will not provide full protection. When borders open, NZ will still be managing COVID-19</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our other (not yet peer reviewed) <a href="https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2021/03/24/vaccination-and-testing-of-the-border-workforce-for-covid-19-and-risk-of-community-outbreaks-a-modelling-study/">research</a> shows that regular testing remains crucial even after border workers are vaccinated. This is because even the best vaccines aren’t perfect. </p>
<p>There is a risk vaccinated workers could be asymptomatic but still transmit the virus to others. And the only way to pick up asymptomatic infections is routine testing.</p>
<p>The virus that causes COVID-19 is tricky and evolving. We are still learning about new transmission routes and need to constantly evaluate and improve our border systems to minimise the risks of returnees spreading the virus to others. </p>
<p>Until the majority of New Zealand’s population is vaccinated, the border will continue to be our main line of defence. Effective border processes will allow New Zealanders to return home safely while minimising the risk of COVID-19 to our communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159325/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Steyn is affiliated with the University of Auckland and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Plank is affiliated with the University of Canterbury and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p>Although most border workers are now vaccinated, regular testing remains essential to guard against the risk of a major outbreak in the community.Nicholas Steyn, Research assistant, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauMichael Plank, Professor in Applied Mathematics, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1584142021-04-09T03:20:00Z2021-04-09T03:20:00ZVaccination alone will not provide full protection. When borders open, NZ will still be managing COVID-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394144/original/file-20210408-23-xmzjj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3947%2C2372&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ministry of Health</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From next week, unvaccinated staff working at managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) facilities will be <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/440111/covid-19-authorities-unable-to-say-how-many-border-workers-unvaccinated">moved to low-risk jobs</a>, following a case of a worker who missed vaccination appointments and then <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/border-related-case-confirmed-current-case">tested positive</a> for COVID-19. </p>
<p>The recently announced <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/440052/new-zealand-temporarily-suspending-travel-from-india-pm-jacinda-ardern">ban on arrivals from India</a> underscores an important point: even once all border and health staff have been vaccinated, vaccination does not provide 100% protection. </p>
<p>Last month, a MIQ worker tested positive almost a week <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/covid-19-update-23-march-2021">after receiving their second vaccine dose</a>. This case shows that, occasionally, even fully vaccinated people can still carry the virus in their throats and therefore potentially spread it. </p>
<h2>Small risk of infection remains</h2>
<p>Clinical trials of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine show <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577">90-97% efficacy</a> which means most fully vaccinated people will not get sick, and the small number who do are very unlikely to develop serious disease.</p>
<p>The vaccine reduces the ability to contract and pass on the virus, but not always completely. It takes the sting out of COVID-19’s tail, because it particularly reduces its ability to cause serious illness or death. </p>
<p>In last month’s case, the vaccinated worker remained asymptomatic, which likely reduced the spread of the virus to others. The risk of spread is higher from sick people because they have a <a href="https://www.webefit.com/resources/CleaningData/Does%20a%20high%20viral%20load%20or%20infectious%20dose%20make%20covid-19%20worse_%20_%20New%20Scientist.pdf">higher load of the virus</a>, and therefore more to spread, and they are more likely to spread it, particularly with coughing.</p>
<p>Data from use in several countries suggests the vaccine has some effect in reducing an infected person’s <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm">ability to pass the virus on to others</a>, but as this example shows, vaccinated people can still carry and spread the virus, albeit at much lower rates.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People waiting to be vaccinated" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394145/original/file-20210408-21-1v5fmo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frontline border staff and their families were the first to be vaccinated in New Zealand’s rollout of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ministry of Health</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Herd immunity feasible, but challenging</h2>
<p>The combination of a vaccine’s ability to reduce illness — and therefore spread of the disease — is good news, but it’s not fool proof. Should New Zealand consider opening its borders beyond the current <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/trans-tasman-bubble-start-19-april">travel bubble with Austalia</a> (due to start on April 19), it’s likely this would allow people with COVID-19 into the country. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-quarantine-free-trans-tasman-bubble-opens-on-april-19-but-flyer-beware-remains-the-reality-of-pandemic-travel-158423">A quarantine-free trans-Tasman bubble opens on April 19, but 'flyer beware' remains the reality of pandemic travel</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If the majority of New Zealanders are vaccinated, we can be confident that very few people will get sick. But whether this would be enough to stop spread through the community remains unclear.</p>
<p>New Zealand could aim for herd immunity, which would mean vaccinating enough of the population to stop the virus from spreading, should it enter a community. The ability to stop spread would depend on the proportion of the population that is immune (either following infection or through vaccination), whether immunity is spread evenly across the population, and the infectivity of the virus. </p>
<p>With measles, for example, a population requires up to 95% immunity before the virus can stop spreading. But measles is more highly infectious compared to COVID-19 so the level of immunity required to achieve herd immunity would <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(17)30307-9/fulltext">likely be lower</a>. </p>
<h2>New variants complicate the picture</h2>
<p>While it is possible to calculate a magic number needed for herd immunity for COVID-19, there are several variables that prevent us from doing so accurately. These include the recent more contagious mutations and the lack of data on precisely how effective the vaccine is against asymptomatic spread.</p>
<p>Also unhelpful in a quest for herd immunity is that we cannot yet vaccinate children under 16. Clinical trials are underway to determine the efficacy of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for children and <a href="https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-children-study-results/507-dacf867b-60a9-42e5-b3e2-e388fb848e65">preliminary results are promising</a>. But until trials are completed and the data scientifically reviewed, New Zealand’s vaccination programme excludes just under a quarter of New Zealand’s population. </p>
<p>Even with an excellent vaccination programme, vaccination is not evenly distributed. There are groups and communities with lower coverage, which means there will be gaps across the population. </p>
<p>We have seen this with the <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/a-measles-epidemic-in-new-zealand-why-did-this-occur-and-how-can-we-prevent-it-occurring-again">2019 measles outbreak in New Zealand</a>. Even with high vaccination rates of over 90% across most of the population, and a highly effective vaccine, the disease affected communities or age groups with lower immunisation coverage.</p>
<h2>Disease control instead of elimination</h2>
<p>As long as COVID-19 continues to spread internationally, further border openings would import new cases and challenge New Zealand’s ability to maintain its elimination status. </p>
<p>A partial response may lie in aiming for the highest possible rates of immunisation, alongside ongoing public health measures that have worked well so far, including contact tracing. </p>
<p>One possible option would be to only allow vaccinated people into the country, because they are less likely to be carrying disease. But are we going to wait until vaccination gets to all countries, and to all age groups, before opening our borders? </p>
<p>Another option is to open the borders and support the vaccination of any unvaccinated people on arrival in New Zealand. This could be a feasible strategy once children are able to be vaccinated. </p>
<p>Another path is to let go of the concept of elimination and focus instead on disease control. We know with great confidence that this vaccine is effective at <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577;%20https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765">stopping severe disease and death</a>. </p>
<p>I recommend we put all our efforts into vaccinating everyone we possibly can, particularly more vulnerable individuals and communities. Then, when we do open the borders and the disease comes into New Zealand, we will see predominantly mild and asymptomatic disease. This will be manageable.</p>
<p>This strategy will require an effective vaccination coverage that doesn’t leave out those most in need. We must offer the vaccine equitably to everyone, with the best possible informed consent approaches, care and thought. There will still be those who choose not to vaccinate, but with a well communicated immunisation programme, this group should be a very small percentage of the population. </p>
<p>If we have a high rate of immunisation coverage, alongside traditional contact tracing, we can minimise the risk to these individuals and maintain an approach that relies on education and support rather than the heavy hand of mandatory vaccination.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nikki Turner works for the Immunisation Advisory Centre, that receives its primary source of funding form the New Zealand Ministry of Health . Additional funding comes from a variety of sources for specific research and other projects. Refer <a href="https://www.immune.org.nz/funding">https://www.immune.org.nz/funding</a></span></em></p>Even with the highest possible rates of vaccination, New Zealand will need to keep up public health measures, or consider letting go of the concept of elimination and focus instead on disease control.Nikki Turner, Professor, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1553672021-02-25T01:00:17Z2021-02-25T01:00:17ZA year on from the arrival of COVID-19 in NZ: 5 lessons for 2021 and beyond<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386304/original/file-20210224-21-1fpw0tr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C7%2C4962%2C3315&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Exactly one year ago tomorrow (February 26) the <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/single-case-covid-19-confirmed-new-zealand">first confirmed case</a> of COVID-19 arrived in Aotearoa New Zealand. Identified only as “a person in their 60s recently returned from Iran”, the case marked the beginning of an extraordinary period in the life of the country.</p>
<p>A year on, what are some of the lessons we have learned about this pandemic? And what are the implications for improving our response in future?</p>
<p>One of the main reasons for asking these questions lies in the legacy value of any improvements we make. That is, the potential for using this crisis as the catalyst for an urgently-needed upgrade to the country’s public health infrastructure, to enhance health, equity, prosperity and sustainability in the long term.</p>
<h2>Elimination is the right strategy</h2>
<p>Arguably, New Zealand’s greatest lesson is that an <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/new-zealands-elimination-strategy-for-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-what-is-required-to-make-it-work">elimination strategy</a> is the <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4907">optimal response</a> for a moderate to severe pandemic like COVID-19. The strategy provides a vivid example of how <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025203">protecting public health</a> also <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4907">protects the economy</a> when compared with mitigation or suppression strategies.</p>
<p>This successful approach has required decisive <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1742715020929151">science-backed government action</a> and outstanding communication to create the social licence needed for an effective response.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Chris Hipkins, Ashley Bloomfield Jacinda Ardern" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386301/original/file-20210224-15-5zxcgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386301/original/file-20210224-15-5zxcgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386301/original/file-20210224-15-5zxcgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386301/original/file-20210224-15-5zxcgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386301/original/file-20210224-15-5zxcgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386301/original/file-20210224-15-5zxcgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386301/original/file-20210224-15-5zxcgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Communication is key: Minister for Covid-19 Response Chris Hipkins, Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announce the arrival of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine on February 12.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Prevention remains a fundamental strategy. At a technical level, we have learned <a href="https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5008">COVID-19 transmission</a> is mainly through airborne spread indoors, often from <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30981-6/fulltext">pre-symptomatic people</a>. This highlights the value of mask use and good ventilation.</p>
<p>The risk from contaminated surfaces has been <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00277-8">overemphasised</a>. The virus shows large “transmission heterogeneity” (only about 20% of infected cases are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20235-8">responsible for most of the transmission</a>), further underlining the importance of preventing super-spreading events.</p>
<h2>Ongoing vaccination challenges</h2>
<p>Another key lesson was how quickly the world developed highly effective, safe vaccines. The new <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00019-w">messenger RNA (mRNA)</a> vaccines are performing particularly well.</p>
<p>But the COVID-19 endgame remains uncertain. Plausible global scenarios range from <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741">endemic infection</a> (like seasonal influenza) to eradication (<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30129-8/fulltext">like SARS</a>, smallpox, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/how-rinderpest-was-eradicated">rinderpest</a> and two of the three serotypes of poliovirus).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-vaccines-rich-countries-have-bought-more-than-they-need-heres-how-they-could-be-redistributed-153732">COVID vaccines: rich countries have bought more than they need – here’s how they could be redistributed</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant.html">increase transmission risk</a> and will probably <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6527/329">reduce vaccine effectiveness</a> over time, requiring vaccine reformulation.</p>
<p>A co-ordinated international effort to <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax">ensure equitable distribution</a> of vaccines will not only protect the most vulnerable, it will also provide the best hope of containing the pandemic.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A border worker receiving a dose of the COVID-19 vaccine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386303/original/file-20210224-15-17r21um.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386303/original/file-20210224-15-17r21um.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386303/original/file-20210224-15-17r21um.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386303/original/file-20210224-15-17r21um.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386303/original/file-20210224-15-17r21um.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386303/original/file-20210224-15-17r21um.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386303/original/file-20210224-15-17r21um.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Essential workers first: a border worker receives the COVID-19 vaccine in Auckland on February 20.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5 challenges for 2021 and beyond</h2>
<p>Aotearoa faces five key challenges over the next year to weather the pandemic and deliver a valuable and lasting public health legacy.</p>
<p><strong>1. Improving border biosecurity</strong></p>
<p>Preventing the re-introduction of COVID-19 into the country remains the single most important short- to medium-term challenge to <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-covid-19-mutating-and-surging-nz-urgently-needs-to-tighten-border-controls-153078">sustained elimination</a> of the virus.</p>
<p>There are obvious benefits in taking a <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/how-best-to-classify-and-count-nzs-border-control-failures-in-the-covid-19-pandemic/">highly systematic approach</a> to this process by considering <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/covid-19-outbreaks-in-aotearoa-new-zealand-urgent-action-is-required-to-address-systematic-causes-and-consequences-of-border-failures">the entire journey</a> of travellers: from their week prior to departure, their flight to New Zealand (<a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/3/20-4714_article">during which they can become infected</a>), their two-week stay in MIQ facilities (<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.17.21251946v1">where again they can become infected</a>), and the period after leaving MIQ when they remain at <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300223717/covid19-case-confirmed-in-hamilton-after-leaving-the-pullman-hotel">elevated risk of being infectious</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-coronavirus-mutates-and-what-this-means-for-the-future-of-covid-19-154499">How the coronavirus mutates and what this means for the future of COVID-19</a>
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<p>The goal of having no infected people arriving in the country should become increasingly realistic. This should allow for the careful introduction of <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-needs-a-traffic-light-system-to-stop-covid-19-creeping-in-at-the-border-149262">quarantine-free travel</a> with other parts of the world that have also achieved elimination.</p>
<p>Investing in a purpose-built but versatile <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/shifting-all-isolation-quarantine-facilities-to-a-single-air-force-base-the-need-for-a-critical-analysis/">quarantine facility</a> offers important short- and long-term benefits.</p>
<p><strong>2. Enhancing outbreak detection and management</strong> </p>
<p>For the foreseeable future, New Zealand will need to maintain and enhance its systems for rapid detection and control of COVID-19 outbreaks as a backup measure for border failures.</p>
<p>Promising enhancements include the use of daily <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2775397">saliva testing</a> of border workers and <a href="https://www.esr.cri.nz/our-expertise/covid-19-response/strategies-for-covid-19/other-covid-19-work/wastewater-faqs/">wastewater testing</a> to detect community transmission sooner, as well as continuing improvements to contact tracing.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cdc-says-masks-must-fit-tightly-and-two-are-better-than-one-153778">CDC says masks must fit tightly – and two are better than one</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>New Zealand has relatively high voluntary uptake of its <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-resources-and-tools/nz-covid-tracer-app">COVID Tracer app</a>, but routine use is poor. An obvious improvement would be to make use of the app mandatory when entering high-risk venues (nightclubs, indoor bars and restaurants, gyms, churches, entertainment venues) and by MIQ workers and recently returned travellers.</p>
<p>The alert level system needs <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/upgrade-of-nzs-covid-19-alert-levels-needed-to-help-regain-nzs-elimination-status/">revision</a> to reflect new knowledge about transmission. There needs to be a greater focus on limiting crowding in high-risk indoor environments, promoting <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/mass-masking-an-alternative-to-a-second-lockdown-in-aotearoa">mask use</a> (which is <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(21)00003-0/fulltext">effective at reducing transmission</a>) and using more geographically targeted and less disruptive “circuit-breaker lockdowns”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1364411596756279302"}"></div></p>
<p><strong>3. Delivering vaccinations effectively and equitably</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines">Vaccination strategies must prioritise</a> effective border control, protect the most vulnerable and promote health <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-shows-maori-are-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-other-new-zealanders-145453">equity</a>. Achieving high coverage will depend on social engagement, community networks, and high-quality, comprehensive information systems such as the upgraded <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-our-vaccine-roll-out-plan">national immunisation register</a>.</p>
<p><strong>4. Establishing an effective public health agency</strong></p>
<p>The pandemic provides a vivid illustration of the need to invest in effective public health infrastructure. A <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/a-preventable-measles-epidemic-lessons-for-reforming-public-health-in-nz/">dedicated national agency is needed</a> to create the critical mass of expertise in strategy and delivery that was missing at the start of the pandemic in New Zealand.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-new-zealand-could-keep-eliminating-coronavirus-at-its-border-for-months-to-come-even-as-the-global-pandemic-worsens-142368">How New Zealand could keep eliminating coronavirus at its border for months to come, even as the global pandemic worsens</a>
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</p>
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<p>Such agencies are increasingly common in high-income countries. It was a key feature in the highly effective <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(20)30044-4/fulltext">COVID response in Taiwan</a>. This agency could provide the critical mass needed to put disease prevention and preparedness at the centre of government activities.</p>
<p><strong>5. Establishing optimal emergency decision-making processes</strong> </p>
<p>The effective New Zealand pandemic response benefited from having a government that considered scientific advice and was concerned with well-being. However, the government has been slow to innovate in some areas.</p>
<h2>An opportunity to reset the system</h2>
<p>One of the greatest legacies from this pandemic could be to institutionalise an <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-months-after-new-zealands-first-covid-19-case-its-time-for-a-more-strategic-approach-144936">improved set of processes</a> for decision-making in emergencies that do more to foster learning, innovation, continuous quality improvement and transparency. Key changes would be:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>political processes that enable highly informed debate and scrutiny while aiming for cross-party support of key response strategies (such as an ongoing <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/visit-and-learn/history-and-buildings/special-topics/epidemic-response-committee-covid-19-2020/">epidemic response committee</a> of parliamentarians)</p></li>
<li><p>advisory processes that ensure high-level, multidisciplinary science input into the all-of-government response (e.g. the formation of a COVID-19 science council/rōpu).</p></li>
<li><p>a well-resourced research and development strategy to ensure a high level of scientific evidence to shape the response and its evaluation</p></li>
<li><p>commitment to, and a timetable for, an <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/five-key-reasons-why-nz-should-have-an-official-inquiry-into-the-response-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/">official inquiry</a> to assess the pandemic response and drive wider system improvements.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In summary, the COVID-19 pandemic has provided a profound opportunity for reassessing health, social and economic functioning in Aotearoa New Zealand. It has demonstrated the value of proactive government decision-making to manage threats to population health.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 response provides a model for responding to a <a href="https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/pq/article/view/6550/5715">wide range of tough societal challenges</a>, including the climate change emergency and growing social inequities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Baker receives funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand to research COVID-19 and other infectious disease and public health issues.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Kvalsvig receives funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand to research COVID-19 and other infectious disease and public health issues.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Wilson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The first year of dealing with the pandemic has taught New Zealand many lessons — including how we might tackle systemic social and environmental problems.Michael Baker, Professor of Public Health, University of OtagoAmanda Kvalsvig, Senior Research Fellow, Department of Public Health, University of OtagoNick Wilson, Professor of Public Health, University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1552892021-02-15T03:59:26Z2021-02-15T03:59:26ZClose contact test results will be crucial to whether Auckland’s level 3 lockdown is extended beyond three days<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384178/original/file-20210215-13-co85q5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C100%2C4438%2C2713&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fiona Goodall/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s latest community cases, the first to be infected with the more infectious B.1.1.7 variant of COVID-19, have a plausible link to the border through one person’s <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/436403/what-you-need-to-know-three-covid-19-community-cases-in-south-auckland">workplace at LSG Sky Chefs</a>, a business that deals with laundry and catering from international flights.</p>
<p>But it is not a definitive link. Indeed, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/436426/covid-19-auckland-cases-are-uk-variant-jacinda-ardern-says">announced this morning</a> that genome sequencing was not able to link the new infections to any cases we have seen recently in returned travellers. </p>
<p>Worryingly, this leaves the possibility of a more widespread community outbreak. </p>
<p>Even if a connection to the workplace can eventually be established, it may not be a direct human-to-human link. The LSG Sky Chefs worker is not thought to have had face-to-face contact with air crew or international travellers. </p>
<p>This means there may well be other cases in the chain of transmission between the border and the worker, and these cases could have sparked additional community transmission chains. </p>
<p>This makes the situation potentially more dangerous than the recent cases associated with the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/435296/two-more-people-linked-with-pullman-hotel-treated-as-confirmed-covid-cases">Pullman hotel managed isolation facility</a>, which had a clear and direct link to the border. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-still-too-soon-for-nz-to-relax-covid-19-border-restrictions-for-travellers-from-low-risk-countries-154643">It's still too soon for NZ to relax COVID-19 border restrictions for travellers from low-risk countries</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>More contagious variant</h2>
<p>Auckland returned to level 3 lockdown conditions at midnight on Sunday following the announcement of the three new cases. The rest of the country moved to alert level 2, with both restrictions in place until at least Wednesday this week. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A window display at Auckland's Papatoetoe High School, showing paper cut-out figures." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384181/original/file-20210215-19-1vlggi7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384181/original/file-20210215-19-1vlggi7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384181/original/file-20210215-19-1vlggi7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384181/original/file-20210215-19-1vlggi7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384181/original/file-20210215-19-1vlggi7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384181/original/file-20210215-19-1vlggi7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384181/original/file-20210215-19-1vlggi7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A window display at Auckland’s Papatoetoe High School, where one of the new cases is a student.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fiona Goodall/Getty</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Genome sequencing has revealed the new community cases <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/update-genomic-sequencing">have the more infectious B.1.1.7 lineage</a>. This variant (also known as VOC-202012/01) was first identified in the UK late last year. Since then it has rapidly become dominant across England. </p>
<p>It has also sparked outbreaks that have led to short, sharp restrictions in the Australian states of <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/434210/brisbane-locks-down-to-halt-spread-of-covid-variant">Queensland</a>, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-06/wa-covid-lockdown-successful-but-luck-a-factor-experts-say/13127384">Western Australia</a>, and most recently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/13/epidemiologists-back-victorias-lockdown-but-say-evidence-not-yet-in-on-shorter-incubation">Victoria</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-another-lockdown-in-victoria-hurts-but-it-might-be-our-only-way-to-avert-a-third-wave-155212">Yes, another lockdown in Victoria hurts. But it might be our only way to avert a third wave</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The UK has one of the best COVID-19 <a href="https://www.cogconsortium.uk/">genomic surveillance systems</a> and this has allowed scientists to track the spread of B.1.1.7. <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.30.20249034v2">Multiple lines of evidence</a> now point to an increase in the reproductive number of the virus. </p>
<p>This number, often called R0, is the average number of people each infected person will go on to infect. Researchers in the UK recently <a href="https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html">estimated R0 to be 43-82% higher</a> for B.1.1.7 than for previous variants. </p>
<p>This is why moving Auckland to alert level 3 was the right thing to do. Given the highly infectious nature of the B.1.1.7 variant, and the chance these infections may have come from a source other than the family member’s workplace, there may be another cluster of cases out there that we don’t know about yet. </p>
<p>We know that some family members travelled to New Plymouth, in the Taranaki region, during the Waitangi weekend. There is a risk they passed the virus on to others, but there is also a reasonable chance this was before their infectious period. </p>
<p>At this point, it would seem unnecessary to place the Taranaki region under stricter lockdown conditions. We will know more later in the week, once results are in from tests of people who visited locations of interest in Taranaki. </p>
<h2>Short lockdown or bigger outbreak</h2>
<p>There are two main questions that need to be answered before we can consider relaxing alert levels for Auckland and the rest of the country. Firstly, we need to find out whether any of the three known cases passed the virus on to others in the community. </p>
<p>Anyone who lives in Auckland or Taranaki, or has travelled through Auckland or Taranaki in the last week should check the <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-public/contact-tracing-covid-19/covid-19-contact-tracing-locations-interest#auckfeb">Ministry of Health website</a> to see if they were at any of the locations of interest at the times listed. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1361105883422289920"}"></div></p>
<p>If so, exposure to the virus is possible and anyone should follow the instructions on the website. If all those who may have been exposed can be identified quickly, the government will feel more confident about relaxing alert levels in the next few days.</p>
<p>But secondly, we also need to know if there are other chains of transmission stemming from cases in between the border and the family. Testing of close and “casual plus” contacts of the three cases will help answer this over the coming days. Testing of people connected with the LSG Sky Chefs workplace and Papatoetoe High School will be particularly important. </p>
<p>Finally, if there are cases that were infected prior to the three cases announced on Sunday, the virus could have been spreading in the community undetected for several weeks. Modelling shows that if there are additional cases upstream of the LSG Sky Chefs worker, the outbreak may already have infected more than 50 people. </p>
<p>But if we can rule this out by establishing a direct link to the source of infection, the outbreak is likely to be much smaller. </p>
<p>If we find significant community transmission, we need to be prepared for alert level 3 restrictions to last several weeks. Because we are dealing with a more transmissible variant, it is even possible <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-covid-19-variants-are-so-dangerous-and-how-to-stop-them-spreading-153535">we might need to move to alert level 4</a> to contain and eliminate the outbreak.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155289/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Plank is affiliated with the University of Canterbury and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Hendy is affiliated with the University of Auckland and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Siouxsie Wiles is affiliated with the University of Auckland and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems.</span></em></p>The highly infectious nature of the COVID-19 variant, and the fact the infections have no clear link to the border, leaves the worrying possibility of a more widespread community outbreak.Michael Plank, Professor in Applied Mathematics, University of CanterburyShaun Hendy, Professor of Physics, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauSiouxsie Wiles, Associate Professor in Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1551472021-02-12T12:50:42Z2021-02-12T12:50:42ZBorder closures are not the answer to the UK’s coronavirus crisis<p>Borders have moved, not uncommonly for the UK, to the forefront of public discussion in 2021.</p>
<p>The home secretary, Priti Patel, recently expressed <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55733357">rare contrition</a> for the failure to close borders in March 2020 – a point on which Labour leader Keir Starmer took the prime minister to task. Under normal circumstances, the idea of a Labour party led by the historically Europhile Starmer advocating for a hard border regime would be notable, but these are far from normal circumstances. </p>
<p>The change reflects a profound shift in British attitudes. Whereas UK citizens were some of the least likely to <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/majority-people-want-borders-closed-fear-about-covid-19-escalates">support shutting international borders</a> in March 2020, with only 51% approving such action, a more recent poll shows 84% of British people are <a href="https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/42ib2mxynp/Globalism%20-%20lockdown%20measures.pdf">supportive of closed borders</a> – one of the highest rates in the world. </p>
<p>Within a matter of months, the implementation of hard borders has become one of the UK’s most popular policy positions.</p>
<p>The driving force behind this seems clear. New, more dangerous variants of coronavirus are on the rise, some of which may make it <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55659820">harder to control the virus</a>. Yet variants alone do not complete the picture. </p>
<p>Beyond the threat of “variants of concern”, there is a more <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/91dea18f-ad0e-4dcb-98c3-de836b1ba79b">general sense</a> that open borders are the smoking gun of the government’s incompetence over COVID-19, even as the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths?country=IND%7EUSA%7EGBR%7ECAN%7EDEU%7EFRA">domestic death toll</a> approaches the world’s worst per capita.</p>
<h2>Do hard borders work?</h2>
<p>The UK’s newfound support for closed borders is predominately rooted in admiration for countries such as Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam, all of which employ two-week quarantines at the border and have been far more successful than the UK in keeping COVID-19 prevalence to very low levels.</p>
<p>Yet countries like Australia and New Zealand do not have low levels of COVID-19 because they have hard borders. Rather, the opposite is true. They have retained hard borders since March 2020 because they were able to control their own outbreaks using lockdowns, first reinforcing and subsequently maintaining them. Melbourne is currently in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-another-lockdown-in-victoria-hurts-but-it-might-be-our-only-way-to-avert-a-third-wave-155212">five-day “circuit-breaker” lockdown</a> after a cluster of cases emerged from one of its quarantine hotels. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph showing coronavirus cases in Australia and New Zealand" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383777/original/file-20210211-17-v7vbe5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383777/original/file-20210211-17-v7vbe5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383777/original/file-20210211-17-v7vbe5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383777/original/file-20210211-17-v7vbe5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383777/original/file-20210211-17-v7vbe5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383777/original/file-20210211-17-v7vbe5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383777/original/file-20210211-17-v7vbe5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia and New Zealand have both gotten coronavirus outbreaks under control.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus">Our World in Data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>There is limited evidence that quarantines are an effective control measure against COVID and while border closures undoubtedly had an effect <a href="https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013717/epdf/full">at the start of the pandemic</a>, more recent data indicates very little effect in countries where the disease is more widespread.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2468-2667%2820%2930263-2">A modelling study published in The Lancet</a> in December 2020 estimated that, even in the context of the relatively low prevalence of September 2020, between 1% and 5% of the UK’s COVID-19 cases were likely to be imported. The authors pointed out that “strict untargeted travel restrictions are probably unjustified in many countries, other than those that have both good international travel connections and very low local COVID-19 incidence”. </p>
<p>With cases now <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=%7EGBR">ten times higher than September</a> and air travel having already declined under <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55681861">heavy restrictions</a>, the current figure is likely to be well under 1% and the scientific case for harder borders weaker still. New variants are <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2021/01/31/how-covid-mutating-and-futility-closing-borders-column/4290527001/">just as likely to emerge domestically</a> as to be imported. </p>
<h2>Misunderstanding borders</h2>
<p>Understanding the scale of the benefits achievable with tighter border control is an important factor in weighing such actions against their relative cost. Yet of equal importance is that we challenge anachronistic assumptions of the role played by national borders in the economy and the lives of the population. </p>
<p>While a century ago, only a very small proportion of the population had ever left the country, Britain in 2021 is (or until very recently was) a deeply interconnected place. As of early 2020, some <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/#:%7E:text=In%202019%20there%20were%20approximately,population%20is%20concentrated%20in%20London.">9.5 million people, or 14% of the UK population</a> was foreign-born. In 2017, it was estimated that a third of new births were to <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/parentscountryofbirthenglandandwales/2017">one or more foreign-born parents</a>. These are the people who are most affected by closed borders.</p>
<p>Government ministers have repeatedly stoked the idea that it is primarily holidaymakers and rule-breakers who would be affected by tougher travel restrictions. Patel has attacked influencers for “<a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/priti-patel-attacks-uk-holidaymakers-social-influencers-unacceptable-behaviour-847456">unacceptable behaviour</a>”, while Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s, <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9181233/Hancock-slams-holidaymakers-saying-no-weekends-Dubai.html">assertion</a> that “there should be no weekends in Dubai” has been underscored implicitly by various news outlets’ persistent partnering of news on border policy with images of holidaymakers. </p>
<p>Yet this narrative is highly misleading. Even before the pandemic, with tourism unconstrained, visits to friends and relatives abroad comprised more than 25% of outbound trips and <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/articles/traveltrends/2019">30% of inbound trips to the UK</a>. With a growing number of UK families now transnational, closing borders means separating not only countries but millions of households and extended families with them.</p>
<h2>The border trade-off</h2>
<p>Border closures may be acceptable in the immediate term, but figuring them into longer-term coronavirus planning is a decision with far-reaching consequences. Australia, New Zealand and others have imposed these measures as a part of a trade-off for very low prevalence and minimal domestic restriction: undoubtedly a good deal, but not a costless one. </p>
<p>The plight of Australian families separated by border closures has been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-23/coronavirus-border-closures-take-toll-as-families-separated/12564488">widely documented</a>, with many facing either long-term separation from their loved ones, or a lose-lose trade-off between work and family. <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/press-conference-in-canberra-about-mental-health-internal-borders-and-international-travel">The implications in terms of mental health</a> are substantial in such cases and need to be weighed against potential benefits.</p>
<p>Indeed, for this and related reasons, the World Health Organization has <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak">advised against</a> travel restrictions. </p>
<p>As the WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/7/27/who-travel-bans-cannot-be-indefinite-countries-must-fight-virus">put it last year</a>, “It is going to be almost impossible for individual countries to keep their borders shut for the foreseeable future.”</p>
<h2>Proportionate controls</h2>
<p>This is important to recognise when advocating for border restrictions because it shapes how the endgame of these restrictions is perceived. Current forecasts suggest it <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/">will take years</a> for the world’s population to be vaccinated against COVID-19 and even then the disease – and its variants – <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00493-9">will continue to circulate</a>. </p>
<p>While there is undoubtedly a case to be made for temporary and targeted border restrictions in some form, there is <a href="https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013717/epdf/full">little convincing evidence that they will work in this case</a>. </p>
<p>Border controls are important, but they must be proportionate and variable, rather than isolationist. Above all, borders must not be framed as a public good, even in exceptional circumstances. Doing so not only leads COVID-19 policy down an ineffectual route but provides a politically expedient distraction from problems the very much begin at home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155147/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurie Parsons does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Closing borders is a popular policy in the UK, but it brings limited effectiveness at great human cost.Laurie Parsons, Lecturer in Human Geography, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1546432021-02-05T01:15:07Z2021-02-05T01:15:07ZIt’s still too soon for NZ to relax COVID-19 border restrictions for travellers from low-risk countries<p>Relaxing border restrictions for travellers from low COVID-19 risk countries would increase the risk of community cases in New Zealand by around 25%, says an <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/estimating-the-effect-of-selective-border-relaxation-on-covid-19-in-new-zealand">article</a> published today in the New Zealand Medical Journal. </p>
<p>This might not sound like a big increase in risk, but it means breaches like the one at the <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-two-more-cases-linked-to-pullman-hotel-being-investigated-by-health-officials/YEMCD54DH43JOI7SMDJKY3R5EU/">Pullman Hotel</a> in Auckland last month will occur 25% more frequently.</p>
<p>This increases the chance of a community outbreak and the possibility that an alert level change would be needed to contain it.</p>
<p>With new <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-covid-19-variants-are-so-dangerous-and-how-to-stop-them-spreading-153535">more transmissible variants</a> and more COVID-19 cases worldwide than ever before, this adds up to a significant risk. </p>
<h2>Risk from isolation facilities</h2>
<p>The work in the article builds on a mathematical model (originally <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154955v3" title="Managing the risk of a COVID-19 outbreak from border">developed by our team</a>) to estimate the chances of community cases arising from our managed isolation facilities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-were-to-defend-our-borders-from-the-pandemic-what-do-we-mean-by-borders-154176">If we're to defend our borders from the pandemic, what do we mean by borders?</a>
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<p>There is a small risk an infected traveller might arrive in managed isolation, return two negative tests, but be released after 14 days while still infectious.</p>
<p>The gold-standard nasal swab <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-public/assessment-and-testing-covid-19/how-covid-19-testing-works">PCR test</a> is good, but it can miss cases, especially in people who are early or late in the course of their infections.</p>
<p>So far, we haven’t seen this happen in New Zealand’s managed isolation system even though more than 100,000 people have passed through. </p>
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<h2>Risk from new arrivals</h2>
<p>Instead, New Zealand’s problems in managed isolation have been caused by infected arrivals who go on to infect other guests or workers in the facility. Someone who picked up an infection in the last few days of their stay would leave the facility at their most infectious.</p>
<p>This is what happened last week at the <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/3-new-cases-covid-19-border-and-update-border-related-cases-auckland">Pullman</a>, where during their stay several people were infected with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html">B.1.351 variant</a> first identified in South Africa. We were lucky this incident didn’t spark a community outbreak.</p>
<p>Right now, we believe we need to do everything we can to reduce the risk of this type of breach. Otherwise another lockdown will become an inevitability.</p>
<p>The authors of the study claim the recent requirement for a pre-departure test will mitigate this risk. But pre-departure tests are not perfect and many travellers have already been taking these because they were required to by their airline or the country through which they transited. This alone is not enough. </p>
<h2>We need the vaccinations</h2>
<p>Once vaccines start to be more widely available, cases worldwide should start to drop to levels where a risk analysis like the one laid out in this new article will become useful. This will need to be accompanied by high vaccination rates here in New Zealand so our population is protected against the virus.</p>
<p>But we would not recommend using this recent risk analysis because it uses COVID-19 case numbers and fatality rates to estimate how prevalent the virus is in different countries.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1356773524799594496"}"></div></p>
<p>This is not a reliable approach because it tells us how prevalent COVID-19 was two to three weeks ago, and by taking a country-wide average it could mask major variations within a country.</p>
<p>If we had been using this methodology last winter, Melbourne’s outbreak in June may well have spread here by the time border restrictions were brought back. </p>
<p>Instead, it would be better to use other indicators that give a more up-to-date and precise picture of COVID-19 hotspots. These would need to include how reliable a country’s COVID surveillance system was.</p>
<p>It will also be crucial to recognise the risk of people catching COVID-19 on their journey to New Zealand.</p>
<h2>In-flight passenger transmission</h2>
<p>The new study uses a very low estimate of the risk of in-flight transmission, whereas we know it is possible for a significant number of <a href="https://research.esr.cri.nz/articles/preprint/A_case_study_of_extended_in-flight_transmission_of_SARS-CoV-2_en_route_to_Aotearoa_New_Zealand/13257914">passengers to get infected</a> on a long-haul flight.</p>
<p>People travelling from a low-prevalence country will often be on the same plane as others from high-prevalence countries, and this means there is a significant infection risk for everyone on the flight.</p>
<p>Many of us with friends and family across the Tasman have been looking forward to a <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/ardern-still-holds-ambition-trans-tasman-travel-bubble-in-coming-months">travel bubble</a> with Australia. Air New Zealand — which helped <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/124154521/covid19-relaxing-border-restrictions-by-arrival-country-too-risky-experts-say">fund this new study</a> — would also like to see an increased flow of travellers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/frontline-border-workers-to-be-vaccinated-first-as-new-zealand-approves-pfizer-vaccine-150720">Frontline border workers to be vaccinated first as New Zealand approves Pfizer vaccine</a>
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<p>At the moment, we could allow visitors from Australia to enter with little extra risk as there are very few cases in the community there. </p>
<p>But — and it’s a big but — a travel bubble with Australia would free up places in managed isolation that might be filled by travellers from higher-risk countries. This would increase the chances of a serious border breach.</p>
<p>Right now, a travel bubble with Australia would need to be accompanied by a reduction in managed isolation capacity to not increase the risks of a community outbreak here in New Zealand. </p>
<p>It makes sense to have a risk-based border system based on the current rate of COVID-19 in different countries and we will need a framework of this type to relax border restrictions once the world begins to emerge from the pandemic.</p>
<p>But COVID-19 is more prevalent now than at almost any point in the past. At the moment, we need to do everything we can to reduce the risk of importing COVID-19 into the community, rather than take on additional risk.</p>
<p>As more dangerous variants of COVID-19 emerge, many other countries are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25/new-quarantine-rules-expected-for-travellers-to-uk">tightening their border restrictions</a> not relaxing them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Plank is affiliated with the University of Canterbury and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Hendy is affiliated with the University of Auckland and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems.
</span></em></p>A new study argues for selective border relaxations. But with COVID-19 more prevalent now than at almost any point in the past, the risk would be substantial.Michael Plank, Professor in Applied Mathematics, University of CanterburyShaun Hendy, Professor of Physics, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1541762021-02-03T01:18:42Z2021-02-03T01:18:42ZIf we’re to defend our borders from the pandemic, what do we mean by borders?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381839/original/file-20210202-23-180pxtp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=562%2C11%2C3431%2C1916&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Novikov Aleksey</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before COVID-19 hit New Zealand’s shores last year, most people’s understanding of defending a border would have come from watching TV reality show <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/anna-murray-what-the-years-most-watched-tv-says-about-nz/TLM5LO6LTT7CYZZVPDNQIHCAJ4/">Border Patrol</a>.</p>
<p>It is easy to understand — on the maps, our country is surrounded by an ocean moat, a natural border. This makes controlling risks arriving from overseas relatively easy as there are limited points at which they can enter New Zealand.</p>
<p>Since February 2, 2020, when a travel ban on non-citizens who had travelled through China was <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/coronavirus-new-zealand-bans-travellers-from-china-to-protect-new-zealanders-from-deadly-virus/SYFNHQSE46TBA2NISX4BF3IGEM/">introduced</a>, borders have been very much in the news.</p>
<p>Most recently, Northland iwi announced Te Tai Tokerau Border Control would be <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/435248/opinion-divided-over-reinstating-iwi-border-control-checkpoints">introducing check points</a> in the region in response to a community case of COVID-19.</p>
<p>Those actions have been controversial, with the police subsequently <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-police-close-down-northland-iwi-checkpoint-set-up-at-waiomio-to-stop-spread-of-virus/XJ5IABUROA54ESUCYL2VO3ECUI/">closing down the check points</a> on <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018781357/police-shut-tai-tokerau-covid-19-checkpoints-citing-safety-issues">grounds of safety</a>, even though they supported the same checkpoints in August 2020 during the Auckland community outbreak.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Community checkpoints in Te Tai Tokerau have been shut down by police who say they risked public safety and people’s right to travel freely.</span></figcaption>
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<p>This raises the question of what sort of border is Te Tai Tokerau trying to control, and is it a border at all?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-border-restrictions-increase-to-combat-new-covid-19-strains-what-rights-do-returning-new-zealanders-have-153962">If border restrictions increase to combat new COVID-19 strains, what rights do returning New Zealanders have?</a>
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<h2>What’s a border anyway?</h2>
<p>There are three important things to realise about <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08865655.2003.9695598" title="On borders and power: A theoretical framework">borders</a> — humans create them, they don’t just occur at the external edge of a state, and not all borders involve the government.</p>
<p>You may find the first idea challenging. We did not make up our physical geography. The ocean border is real. But humans did create the map that depicts our country.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381855/original/file-20210202-23-1pitej6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map showing New Zealand's administrative divisions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381855/original/file-20210202-23-1pitej6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381855/original/file-20210202-23-1pitej6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381855/original/file-20210202-23-1pitej6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381855/original/file-20210202-23-1pitej6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381855/original/file-20210202-23-1pitej6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381855/original/file-20210202-23-1pitej6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381855/original/file-20210202-23-1pitej6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">New Zealand already has several human-defined borders such as the administrative divisions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Monika Hunackova Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>We know from our history that the state of New Zealand originated from British colonisation, that its name is now often referred to as <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/12/using-aotearoa-and-new-zealand-together-as-it-should-be-jacinda-ardern.html">Aotearoa New Zealand</a>, reflecting Te Tiriti o Waitangi.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/1983/0225/latest/DLM90805.html">Realm of New Zealand</a> includes other states and dependencies — Niue, Cook Islands, Tokelau and the Ross Dependency in Antarctica.</p>
<p>From this, we see that even our description of New Zealand can vary, depending on where we stand. By extension, our description of New Zealand’s border will vary.</p>
<p>We can now start to see that borders are more than lines on the map. Borders create spaces that can be used for different purposes, such as security or safety, with associated processes.</p>
<h2>Borders define ‘us’ and ‘them’</h2>
<p>Borders also have many effects, one of which is on our identity. For example, gated communities are bordered spaces, fenced and patrolled business premises are bordered spaces. </p>
<p>If we are inside a gated community, we will identify with that community and its desire for safety and privacy. Outside the gate is everyone else and, potentially, risk and insecurity. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381860/original/file-20210202-17-g4ngiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An intercom at the entrance of a gated community." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381860/original/file-20210202-17-g4ngiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381860/original/file-20210202-17-g4ngiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381860/original/file-20210202-17-g4ngiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381860/original/file-20210202-17-g4ngiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381860/original/file-20210202-17-g4ngiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381860/original/file-20210202-17-g4ngiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381860/original/file-20210202-17-g4ngiq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gated communities also define borders between ‘us’ and ‘them’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Johnny Habell</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To get inside the gated community, particular processes are needed such as membership of the community through ownership of property, or access to a gate key. The means of containment, the border, creates an “us” and “them”. </p>
<p>When we apply this thinking to the external border, our society is bordered by the controls at gateway sea ports and airports. Before foreign visitors pass through these controls, they are “them”. </p>
<p>After they enter New Zealand, we might not know them, but societally they become part of “us”, albeit temporarily.</p>
<p>Managing the COVID-19 threat has involved creating types of borders not familiar to New Zealanders, from societal lockdowns to the creation of specifically bordered spaces — for example, the Managed Isolation and Quarantine facilities (MIQs) and the land borders during the Auckland community outbreak in August.</p>
<p>Most significantly for the many people prevented from travelling internationally, government policy has bordered our lives by keeping us confined to our own island nation.</p>
<p>All these borders have had effects on New Zealand society. </p>
<p>One important effect has been to change whom we identify with — whom we see as “us” and “them”. </p>
<p>Achieving a COVID-free New Zealand has involved creating a range of borders that differentiate, and in some cases separate, the safe “us” from the risky “them”.</p>
<p>Even close family members can temporarily become “them”. We see this in <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/434431/confronted-in-supermarkets-flatmates-move-out-miq-staff-face-huge-stigma">reports</a> of MIQ staff being isolated by their friends, family and business contacts when they are off duty.</p>
<h2>The iwi borders</h2>
<p>Let us now return to those iwi borders. What are they exactly?</p>
<p>Their stated purpose is to <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-shows-maori-are-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-other-new-zealanders-145453">protect the iwi population</a>, many of whom are at high risk from COVID-19, as well as provide a community service by preventing the virus spreading.</p>
<p>The former is certainly identifying with their tribal group and the particular needs and vulnerabilities of that group, but they are also identifying with the COVID-free New Zealand — the so-called team of five million.</p>
<p>This type of border raises a further question about who has, or should have, control of different types of borders.</p>
<p>It is hard to argue against Te Tai Tokerau’s case, but in New Zealand law they have no authority to limit the free movement of people. Only agencies of state have that.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-needs-an-evolving-pandemic-strategy-if-its-to-keep-the-publics-trust-154053">NZ needs an evolving pandemic strategy if it's to keep the public's trust</a>
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<p>Multiple borders have always existed in Aotearoa New Zealand. We just haven’t been aware of them before.</p>
<p>These examples start to reveal them. For some people, these new borders are restrictions, for others they provide a certain freedom — maybe not freedom from fear but freedom to move about within different sized bubbles in relative safety.</p>
<p>Seeing them as a part of New Zealand’s border landscape makes evident issues such as human rights, security, legal authority and equity. A bigger discussion about New Zealand’s borders is clearly needed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154176/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Germana Nicklin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Multiple borders have always existed in Aotearoa New Zealand. We just weren’t as aware of them before the pandemic started locking down communities.Germana Nicklin, Senior Lecturer in Border and Resource Security, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1541592021-01-28T23:15:19Z2021-01-28T23:15:19ZCOVID-19: the science and law are clear — it’s time for NZ to turn down the travel tap from high-risk countries<p>Despite a recent <a href="https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/covid-performance/">best-in-the-world ranking</a> for its <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4907">handling of COVID-19</a>, New Zealand remains at risk as the pandemic intensifies globally. With more infectious variants of the virus <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w">emerging</a>, there are many persisting concerns.</p>
<p>In particular, the number of infected people entering managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) facilities at the border is increasing. This pressure contributes to the risk of border failures, which are <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/11/16/time-to-stop-dodging-bullets-nzs-eight-recent-border-control-failures/">now regular</a>. </p>
<p>There have been at least nine since August 2020, including the most recent issues with the <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300216147/covid19-pullman-hotel-to-gradually-empty-hundreds-of-beds-lost-from-miq-system">Pullman Hotel</a> in Auckland.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381221/original/file-20210128-15-8645f6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381221/original/file-20210128-15-8645f6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381221/original/file-20210128-15-8645f6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381221/original/file-20210128-15-8645f6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381221/original/file-20210128-15-8645f6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381221/original/file-20210128-15-8645f6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381221/original/file-20210128-15-8645f6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381221/original/file-20210128-15-8645f6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Despite MIQ facilities beginning in April 2020, there was a delay until June before routine testing and reporting began (NZ Ministry of Health data).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We argue the time has come to “turn down the tap” of infected travellers coming from so-called “red zone” countries where the pandemic is out of control. We have already advocated for a <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-needs-a-traffic-light-system-to-stop-covid-19-creeping-in-at-the-border-149262">traffic light system</a> to achieve this. </p>
<p>One option is to reduce the risk of infected travellers getting on flights by using brief pre-departure quarantine and COVID-19 testing in carefully designed ways. </p>
<p>For example, an additional low-cost, rapid antigen test prior to boarding, plus clear instructions to passengers about the need for a period of pre-travel self-quarantine to reduce their risk of infection, could be a prerequisite. </p>
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<h2>Tighter measures available</h2>
<p>A more intensive approach could require all red zone travellers to undergo pre-flight quarantine for five days in an approved airport hotel facility, with daily rapid (saliva) testing by New Zealand-certified officials. </p>
<p>The logistics of this could be simplified by having these approved airport hotel facilities located at specific travel hubs — for example, London, Hawaii and Singapore.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-northland-case-is-a-reminder-nzs-dumb-good-luck-may-run-out-153963">COVID-19: Northland case is a reminder NZ's 'dumb good luck' may run out</a>
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<p>Another possibility is simply to further limit the bookings in MIQ facilities available to travellers from red zone countries — say, down to 500 travellers a month — to make the situation more manageable. </p>
<p>Australia has recently <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-11/australia-international-arrival-caps-covid-19-flight-booked/13046728">reduced the cap</a> on incoming travellers. The New Zealand government could also temporarily suspend approval for any flights originating in red zone countries.</p>
<h2>Benefits from limiting red zone arrivals</h2>
<p>Of course, political decision-makers need to consider the immediate well-being of travellers coming from red zone countries (150 to 250 people per day on average). </p>
<p>Some are returning for compelling reasons: they have a health condition and genuinely fear dying in the pandemic, they are coming home to care for a sick relative, or they have lost a job overseas and lack financial support.</p>
<p>But these important considerations will apply to a relatively small number of individuals. They do not outweigh the far greater duty to the rest of New Zealand’s citizens to keep the country COVID-free. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1352658172037787649"}"></div></p>
<h2>The greater good</h2>
<p>Turning down the tap is important for maintaining COVID-19 elimination, providing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2021/jan/28/all-countries-should-pursue-a-covid-19-elimination-strategy-here-are-16-reasons-why">multiple benefits</a>:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Protection from illness and death from COVID-19 outbreaks. Although the outbreak in Victoria, Australia, was eventually controlled, there were still more than 800 deaths. There are also concerning reports of debilitating ongoing symptoms being a feature of COVID-19 infection, and “long COVID” may become a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00039-8/fulltext">huge public health problem</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Protection from the psychological stress, economic disruption and other hardship caused by lockdowns. For example, Auckland Council’s chief economist <a href="https://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/about-auckland-council/business-in-auckland/docsoccasionalpapers/august-2020-aeq.pdf">estimated</a> the cost of level 3 lockdown at 250 jobs and $NZ60-75 million in GDP each day.</p></li>
<li><p>Protection from greater inequalities from outbreaks that hit communities with <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/18/71/11-0035_article">higher background rates</a> of chronic disease (Māori, Pacific, low-income New Zealanders), as seen in past pandemics. A <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/estimated-inequities-in-covid-19-infection-fatality-rates-by-ethnicity-for-aotearoa-new-zealand">recent study</a> estimated those existing inequalities could double the risk of death for Māori and Pasifika compared with NZ Europeans. Indeed, Māori leaders are already <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/te-manu-korihi/435363/calls-to-restrict-returnee-numbers-to-avoid-more-covid-19-outbreaks">calling for reduced traveller numbers</a>.</p></li>
</ol>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-needs-an-evolving-pandemic-strategy-if-its-to-keep-the-publics-trust-154053">NZ needs an evolving pandemic strategy if it's to keep the public's trust</a>
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<p>Health authorities have a specific duty of care to protect workers in MIQ facilities from infection. While personal protective equipment (PPE) is provided, we know failures can still occur <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/430083/troubling-that-quarantine-workers-are-catching-covid-19-union">despite workers using it</a>. </p>
<p>There is a case to be made that health authorities are currently not adequately meeting their duty of care by permitting large numbers of infected people to pass through these MIQ facilities.</p>
<h2>No legal obstacles</h2>
<p>Legal experts have considered the <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1990/0109/latest/DLM224792.html">New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990</a>, the <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2009/0051/latest/DLM1440303.html">Immigration Act 2009</a> and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (<a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/ProfessionalInterest/Pages/CCPR.aspx">OHCHR</a>, to which New Zealand is a signatory) and confirmed the government can <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/covid-19-and-the-law-in-aotearoa-nz/">legally set conditions</a> on returning NZ citizens — as is already being done. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-border-restrictions-increase-to-combat-new-covid-19-strains-what-rights-do-returning-new-zealanders-have-153962">If border restrictions increase to combat new COVID-19 strains, what rights do returning New Zealanders have?</a>
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<p>There have been no successful legal challenges to New Zealand’s current quarantine requirements, or in Australia with its even tighter systems. Those requirements can logically be extended to include <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/123873142/predeparture-covid19-testing-likely-legally-sound-but-exemptions-needed-expert-says">pre-flight quarantine</a> and testing, and further limiting MIQ bookings to make border control safer and more manageable. </p>
<p>The claim that citizens are rendered “stateless” by such measures is a myth.</p>
<p>In summary, the risk of COVID-19 border control failures appears to be increasing. Action is needed to reduce the proportion of infected people boarding flights, or reducing travel from high-risk countries, or both. </p>
<p>There is no legal case against turning down the tap, provided it is clear such measures are time-limited and not absolute.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154159/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Kvalsvig receives funding for COVID-19 research from the Health Research Council of New Zealand (20/1066).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Baker receives funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand to research COVID-19 and other infectious disease and public health issues.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Wilson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With quarantine infection numbers and border failures likely to keep increasing, the case for stricter travel restrictions is clear.Nick Wilson, Professor of Public Health, University of OtagoAmanda Kvalsvig, Senior Research Fellow, Department of Public Health, University of OtagoMichael Baker, Professor of Public Health, University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1535352021-01-22T00:09:52Z2021-01-22T00:09:52ZWhy the COVID-19 variants are so dangerous and how to stop them spreading<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380092/original/file-20210121-13-1s85zfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=198%2C162%2C5808%2C3701&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Lakeview Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With new, more infectious <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-covid-19-variants-153366">variants of COVID-19</a> detected around the world, and at New Zealand’s border, the risk of further level 3 or 4 lockdowns is increased if those viruses get into the community.</p>
<p>These include a variant called <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/health/coronavirus-mutations-B117-variant.html">B.1.1.7</a> that has spread very quickly within the UK, with other new variants now observed in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55534727">South Africa</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-variant/new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-travellers-from-brazil-japan-government-idUSKBN29F08R">Brazil</a>. </p>
<p>Changes in the genetic code of viruses like COVID-19 occur all the time but most of these mutations don’t have any effect on how the disease spreads or its severity.</p>
<p>These changes can be useful because they leave a signature in the virus’s genetic code that allows us to <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/123388632/covid19-new-community-case-directly-genomically-linked-to-defence-force-worker">trace how the virus has spread</a> from one person to another.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-barriers-to-global-vaccination-patent-rights-national-self-interest-and-the-wealth-gap-153443">The big barriers to global vaccination: patent rights, national self-interest and the wealth gap</a>
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<p>But the new variant detected in the UK is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/11/the-new-uk-covid-variant-your-questions-answered">more transmissible</a> than the original virus that was dominant in 2020. That means it spreads more easily from one person to another.</p>
<p>The good news is it <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html">does not cause more severe illness</a> or have a higher fatality rate than the original variant. Evidence so far suggests <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.18.426984v1" title="Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 pseudovirus by BNT162b2 vaccine-elicited human sera">vaccines will still be effective</a> against it. </p>
<p>But the bad news is because it spreads more easily, it has the potential to infect many more people, causing more hospitalisations and deaths as a result. </p>
<h2>Why variants that spread more easily are so dangerous</h2>
<p>The average number of people an infected person with COVID-19 passes the virus on to — the so-called R number — is 40%-70% higher with B.1.1.7 than the original variant.</p>
<p>As the graph below shows, the mathematics of exponential growth means that even a small increase in the transmission rate gets compounded over time, quickly generating enormous growth in the number of cases.</p>
<p><iframe id="j7Wch" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/j7Wch/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A variant like B.1.1.7 with a higher transmission rate is actually more dangerous than one with a higher fatality rate.</p>
<p>Sure, a 50% increase in the fatality rate would cause 50% more deaths. But because of exponential growth, shown in the graph, a 50% increase in transmissibility causes 25 times more cases in just a couple of months if left unchecked.</p>
<p>That would lead to 25 times more deaths at the original mortality rate.</p>
<h2>How do we know the new variant is more transmissible?</h2>
<p>The number of <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/14/more-infectious-variants-could-make-things-much-worse/">cases of the B.1.1.7</a> variant has risen rapidly relative to the original variant.</p>
<p>This can happen for a number of reasons. The new variant might simply happen to be present in a part of the country or group of people who are spreading the virus more rapidly for some other reason.</p>
<p>It could have become resistant to immunity, meaning it could more easily re-infect people who have already had COVID-19. Or it might cause people to become infectious more quickly. </p>
<p>Researchers in the UK used <a href="https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html">mathematical models</a> to test these hypotheses. </p>
<p>They found the explanation that fitted best with the data was that the new variant really is more transmissible. And they estimated a person with the new variant infects 56% more people on average than a person with the original variant. </p>
<p><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf">Contact tracing data</a> from the UK also showed more of the close contacts of someone with the new variant go on to be infected.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379903/original/file-20210121-19-16smdsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=215%2C130%2C3515%2C2055&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign at an airport saying flights from UK cancelled after new COVID-19 variant discovered," src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379903/original/file-20210121-19-16smdsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=215%2C130%2C3515%2C2055&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379903/original/file-20210121-19-16smdsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379903/original/file-20210121-19-16smdsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379903/original/file-20210121-19-16smdsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379903/original/file-20210121-19-16smdsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379903/original/file-20210121-19-16smdsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379903/original/file-20210121-19-16smdsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some countries cancelled flights from the UK over fears of the new COVID strain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/rarrarorro</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Patients with the new variant have also been found to carry <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248834v1" title="S-variant SARS-CoV-2 is associated with significantly higher viral loads in samples tested by ThermoFisher TaqPath RT-QPCR">more of the virus</a>. Together, this provides strong evidence the B.1.1.7 variant is between 40% and 70% more transmissible than the original variant. </p>
<p>The variants found in South Africa and Brazil <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html">share some of the same mutations</a> as the B.1.1.7 variant. There is some evidence they <a href="https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/sa-novel-variant.html">may also be more transmissible</a> or better able to <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines">evade immunity</a>.</p>
<p>But there is more uncertainty about these variants, partly because the data quality isn’t as high as in the UK, which is <a href="https://www.cogconsortium.uk/">very good at doing genome sequencing</a>.</p>
<h2>What does this mean for New Zealand’s border controls?</h2>
<p>The new variants have been detected in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/08/which-countries-have-reported-new-uk-covid-variant">many countries</a>, including in people in <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300201729/covid19-health-officials-confirm-31-new-cases-of-coronavirus-first-case-of-south-african-variant-found">New Zealand’s managed isolation facilities</a>. </p>
<p>There have previously been several cases of <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-25-in-isolation-after-auckland-quarantine-worker-case/PSHJFO2VSNNI56FDPVUWULM4RY/">people working in these facilities picking up infections</a> from recent arrivals.</p>
<p>The more transmissible variants arriving at the New Zealand border increase the risks to these workers, who in turn have a higher chance of passing the virus onto others in the community, amplifying the risk of a community outbreak.</p>
<p>In response, the government says <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/123988930/covid19-predeparture-test-extended-to-all-passengers-from-next-week">international arrivals will require a negative test</a> in the 72 hours prior to departure. They will also be required to take an arrival day test when they get to New Zealand. </p>
<p>These measures provide an <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/22-10-2020/siouxsie-wiles-toby-morris-covid-19-and-the-swiss-cheese-system/">extra layer</a> in our defences against COVID-19.</p>
<h2>How can we manage the risk?</h2>
<p>The new variants spread in the same way as the original one: through close contacts between people, especially in <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/27/national/japanese-cluster-study-3cs-warning-coronavirus/">crowded or poorly ventilated environments</a>.</p>
<p>This means all the tools we have developed to fight the virus will still work. These include testing, contact tracing, masks and physical distancing.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UNCNM7AZPFg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How face masks make a difference.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But any variant that is more transmissible has a higher R number. To control an outbreak, we need to bring the R number under 1 and so we may need to use more of these tools to achieve this.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-covid-19-mutating-and-surging-nz-urgently-needs-to-tighten-border-controls-153078">With COVID-19 mutating and surging, NZ urgently needs to tighten border controls</a>
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<p>For example, in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/aucklands-rapid-lockdown-has-given-new-zealand-a-better-chance-of-eliminating-coronavirus-again-145011">Auckland outbreak</a> in August 2020, alert level 3 was enough to contain and eventually eliminate the outbreak. <a href="https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/10/15/aucklands-august-2020-covid-19-outbreak-cabinet-advice/">Our analysis</a> showed alert level 3 reduced R to about 0.7.</p>
<p>If we had a similar outbreak with the new variant, R could be 50% higher which would mean it is above 1. In other words, we would likely need to use alert level 4 to contain an outbreak, and it might take longer to eliminate the virus than it has previously.</p>
<p>To give our contact tracers the best possible chance of containing a new outbreak without needing alert level 3 or 4, we all need do our bit. This means looking for QR codes when out about and using the app to scan them, as well as <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/health-and-wellbeing/protect-yourself-and-others/keep-track-of-where-youve-been/nz-covid-tracer-app/">turning on Bluetooth</a>. And it means staying at home and getting tested if you feel sick.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153535/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Plank is affiliated with the University of Canterbury and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Hendy is affiliated with the University of Auckland and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems.</span></em></p>A variant with a higher transmission rate is much more dangerous than one with just a higher fatality rate.Michael Plank, Professor in Applied Mathematics, University of CanterburyShaun Hendy, Professor of Physics, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1449362020-08-26T07:16:39Z2020-08-26T07:16:39Z6 months after New Zealand’s first COVID-19 case, it’s time for a more strategic approach<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354795/original/file-20200826-14-hn5ua3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=72%2C105%2C5319%2C3484&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week marks six months since New Zealand’s first COVID-19 case was identified on February 26. </p>
<p>So far New Zealand has been largely in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-923X.12893">reactive mode</a>, initially during the first elimination stage which finished in early June and now in response to the <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-significant-clusters">ongoing Auckland outbreak</a>. </p>
<p>Given the vigorous response to controlling this current cluster, we have a good chance of eliminating community transmission again. </p>
<p>But to maximise our protection against future border control failures and outbreaks, we argue it is time to take a far more strategic approach to this pandemic — and we suggest five key steps New Zealand should take. </p>
<h2>Strengths and weaknesses of New Zealand’s response</h2>
<p>An effective ongoing response to COVID-19 is an all-of-government challenge. It requires seamless coordination of scientific input, policy design and implementation. </p>
<p>An early shift from a mitigation to an <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/new-zealands-elimination-strategy-for-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-what-is-required-to-make-it-work">elimination strategy</a> was a major strength of New Zealand’s response. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/eradication-elimination-suppression-lets-understand-what-they-mean-before-debating-australias-course-142495">Eradication, elimination, suppression: let's understand what they mean before debating Australia's course</a>
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<p>The combination of border controls with a stringent lockdown, supported by considerable science input, including from the government’s <a href="https://www.pmcsa.ac.nz/topics/covid-19/">chief scientists</a>, was effective in <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2025203">eliminating community transmission</a> after the first outbreak. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354968/original/file-20200826-7087-v3mz8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354968/original/file-20200826-7087-v3mz8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354968/original/file-20200826-7087-v3mz8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354968/original/file-20200826-7087-v3mz8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354968/original/file-20200826-7087-v3mz8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354968/original/file-20200826-7087-v3mz8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354968/original/file-20200826-7087-v3mz8w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>As a result, New Zealand now has the <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/07/22/nzs-team-of-5-million-has-achieved-the-lowest-covid-19-death-rate-in-the-oecd-but-there-are-still-gaps-in-our-pandemic-response/">lowest COVID-19 death rate in the OECD</a> and <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/unemployment-rate">relatively low economic damage</a> compared with other high-income countries. </p>
<p>But there are serious weaknesses, including multiple failures at our <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/government-strengthens-managed-isolation-system">managed isolation and quarantine facilities</a> and slow adoption of <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/04/15/we-need-rapid-progress-on-digital-solutions-to-help-eliminate-covid-19-from-new-zealand/">digital technologies for contact tracing</a> and <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/mass-masking-an-alternative-to-a-second-lockdown-in-aotearoa">mass masking</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/masking-the-outbreak-despite-new-zealands-growing-covid-19-cases-there-are-more-ways-to-get-back-to-elimination-faster-144356">Masking the outbreak: despite New Zealand's growing COVID-19 cases, there are more ways to get back to elimination faster</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Challenges ahead</h2>
<p>The most pressing challenge is to bring the current outbreak (New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-significant-clusters">largest cluster</a>, with 108 cases) under control. We also need to learn from this new more targeted resurgence response so we can improve our ability to detect and control any future outbreaks. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.05.20168930v2.full.pdf">Genome sequencing</a> and <a href="https://www.nzgeo.com/audio/wastewater-testing-for-covid-19-nearly-ready/">COVID-19 testing of wastewater</a> are promising new surveillance approaches. But we will also need to upgrade the alert level system to integrate the use of face masks and address high-risk transmission venues such as bars and nightclubs and incorporate <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/370/bmj.m3223.full.pdf">new knowledge</a> about controlling transmission. </p>
<p>Contact tracing should also be improved through digital technologies, including the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/424229/covidcard-would-prove-its-worth-in-any-isolation-breaches-expert">CovidCard</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/genome-sequencing-tells-us-the-auckland-outbreak-is-a-single-cluster-except-for-one-case-144721">Genome sequencing tells us the Auckland outbreak is a single cluster — except for one case</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A second key challenge is to improve the management of our external borders to minimise the risk of introducing the virus. The border is New Zealand’s greatest vulnerability and we need an urgent review of the entire process from pre-travel to post-quarantine. </p>
<p>Last week, the <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300087057/government-plans-to-roll-out-covidcard-thermal-cctv-as-part-of-big-push-to-secure-the-border">government</a> and the main <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/08/covid-19-judith-collins-claims-credit-for-government-adopting-covidcard-technology-in-isolation-and-quarantine-facilities.html">opposition party</a> both announced new border control policies that include the adoption of digital contact tracing technologies.</p>
<p>Modelling by <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.10.20127977v3">ourselves</a> and <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154955v1">colleagues</a> has been useful for assessing various border control interventions. Options include the use of digital technologies for tracking arriving passengers and staff and monitoring <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/08/21/using-the-covidcard-to-enhance-protection-from-covid-19-at-the-nz-border/">contact patterns</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354799/original/file-20200826-14-fa10xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354799/original/file-20200826-14-fa10xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354799/original/file-20200826-14-fa10xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354799/original/file-20200826-14-fa10xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354799/original/file-20200826-14-fa10xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354799/original/file-20200826-14-fa10xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354799/original/file-20200826-14-fa10xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A bus unloads passengers at a managed isolation facility for returning New Zealanders,</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fiona Goodall/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are also important questions about how to <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/07/03/kiwi-public-health-doc-reporting-back-from-victoria-australia-do-quarantine-well/">improve quarantine</a>, the benefits of <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018756215/is-it-time-for-purpose-built-managed-isolation-facilities">purpose-built facilities</a> (with proper ventilation and no shared spaces), and shifting isolation and quarantine facilities out of major cities (for example, to an <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300081087/coronavirus-leave-auckland-alone-is-it-time-for-a-radical-rethink-of-quarantine">air force base</a>). </p>
<p>A further challenge is planning for the introduction of a vaccine. There is a long <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122066815/coronavirus-so-youve-designed-a-vaccine-then-what">list of uncertainties</a> to work through with any COVID-19 immunisation strategy, including the extent and duration of immunity and who should be targeted for immunisation (assuming limited initial supplies). New Zealand should begin planning now to improve the national immunisation register to support vaccine delivery. </p>
<p>Countries pursuing elimination have different science challenges compared with those where transmission is more widespread. They need to shift their focus to include ‘low-probability high-consequence scenarios’, such as the potential role of <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.17.255166v1">imported chilled food</a> as a vehicle for the reintroduction of COVID-19 in the recent outbreak (albeit still <a href="https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/f/688/files/2020/08/Can-COVID-19-survive-in-refrigerated-environments-and-for-how-long-v2-200820-uploaded.pdf">much less likely</a> than a border control failure). </p>
<h2>Five key ways to be more strategic</h2>
<p>We propose five key ways New Zealand could be more strategic in maintaining its elimination goal:</p>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>Establish a high-level COVID-19 science council</strong>. This council would provide evidence-based strategic advice across the entire response sector, help develop a COVID-19 research and development strategy, and assist with coordinating the efforts of research groups across New Zealand. In this role it might represent a logical development from the current <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/about-ministry/leadership-ministry/expert-groups/covid-19-technical-advisory-group">Technical Advisory Group</a> that advises the Ministry of Health. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Develop a well-resourced research and development strategy</strong>. This strategy would identify high-priority evidence needed to protect New Zealand from the pandemic while also achieving equitable outcomes and improving the efficiency of the response. A single day at the current alert level (level 3 for Auckland and level 2 for the rest of the country) is estimated to <a href="https://www.interest.co.nz/business/106512/asb-economists-have-crunched-numbers-what-current-alert-level-settings-may-mean">cost the economy NZ$63 million</a>. It would make economic sense to invest at least this amount into research and development to identify ways of minimising the need for such lockdowns as well as addressing other major COVID-19 science questions.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Enhance the quality and transparency of science information</strong>. High-quality surveillance data are essential to guide and evaluate the COVID-19 pandemic response. These data and response documents need to be readily available for scrutiny by scientists, journalists and the public to help guide systematic improvements. Much of the critical data have never been available in this way, notably <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/05/02/what-we-would-like-to-see-on-the-ministry-of-healths-website-to-better-inform-progress-on-covid-19-elimination/">data on the pandemic itself</a> and key components of the response, such as testing data and updates on the <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/oversight-contact-tracing-strengthened#:%7E:text=Minister%20of%20Health%20Dr%20David,Zealand's%20response%20to%20COVID%2D19.">performance of the contact tracing system</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Evaluate the response through an official inquiry immediately after the October election</strong>. This <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/06/11/five-key-reasons-why-nz-should-have-an-official-inquiry-into-the-response-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/">inquiry</a> would be useful to identify weak areas of the response that require urgent system improvements and help shape the proposed national public health agency.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Establish a national public health agency to deliver the COVID-19 response</strong>. Recent public health disasters such as the Havelock North <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2017/12/20/the-havelock-north-drinking-water-inquiry-a-wake-up-call-to-rebuild-public-health-in-new-zealand/">waterborne disease outbreak</a> and last year’s <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/02/05/a-preventable-measles-epidemic-lessons-for-reforming-public-health-in-nz/">measles epidemic</a> have already highlighted the need for such an agency. Taiwan is the country that has responded most effectively to the COVID-19 pandemic and its dedicated agencies have been a major part of its success. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>Taking a highly strategic, science based approach to COVID-19 gives New Zealand the best possible opportunity to sustain its elimination approach. Focusing on principles of equity, transparency and innovation could help develop the organisations, infrastructure and workforce that provide lasting public health benefits beyond the current crisis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144936/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Baker receives funding for COVID-19 research from the Health Research Council of New Zealand (20/1066).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Kvalsvig receives funding for COVID-19 research from the Health Research Council of New Zealand (20/1066).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Wilson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand’s most pressing challenge is to bring the current COVID-19 outbreak under control, but it also time to make more strategic improvements to prevent future border control failures.Michael Baker, Professor of Public Health, University of OtagoAmanda Kvalsvig, Senior Research Fellow, Department of Public Health, University of OtagoNick Wilson, Professor of Public Health, University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1443992020-08-17T13:47:42Z2020-08-17T13:47:42ZCountries around the world are using border surveillance systems against their own citizens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353151/original/file-20200817-24-1p2wthl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Klein Ongaki</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hamdi was just an infant when his relatives first brought him to the Dadaab refugee camp in north-eastern Kenya to be registered as a refugee – despite the fact he was a Kenyan citizen. Like many ethnic Somali citizens of Kenya living in the vicinity of the camp, they were drawn to the prospect of obtaining food aid for their family. </p>
<p>Since the outbreak of the Somali civil war in the early 1990s, north-eastern Kenya has experienced periodic droughts, propelling many Kenyan Somalis to slip into the refugee system. At Dadaab, they could access free education, food and medical services that, as citizens of one of the country’s most neglected and marginalised regions, were often out of their reach. </p>
<p>Hamdi’s relatives did not anticipate that a seemingly harmless lie would hound him for almost half a decade. Over the last few years, tens of thousands of Kenyan citizens like Hamdi who have tried to obtain a Kenyan national ID <a href="https://www.codastory.com/authoritarian-tech/kenya-biometrics-double-registration/">have been turned away</a> because their fingerprints are captured in the refugee database.</p>
<p>I met many of these people last December while conducting research in the town of Garissa in the eastern part of the country. This was part of an <a href="https://www.kerenweitzberg.com/">ongoing project</a> into the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S002185372000002X">troubled history</a> of biometrics and identification in Kenya. I then returned to London to news of a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/874022/6.5577_HO_Windrush_Lessons_Learned_Review_WEB_v2.pdf">newly published inquiry</a> into the Windrush scandal. It detailed how hundreds of British Commonwealth citizens had been wrongly detained, deported and mistreated under the government’s harsh, data-driven immigration rules.</p>
<p>I was struck by the similarities between the UK and Kenya (two countries bound together by colonial history). The Windrush scandal, which came to public light in 2017, has attracted comparatively more attention than the plight faced by victims of double registration in Kenya. However, both cases reveal the harms caused by data-driven technologies in the service of anti-immigrant and exclusionary policies. </p>
<p>Migrant surveillance systems affect citizens and residents, particularly those who <a href="https://www.ohioswallow.com/book/We+Do+Not+Have+Borders">do not fit</a> neatly into legal categories or typical ideas of who “belongs”. Civil rights activists have been <a href="https://www.aclu.org/issues/privacy-technology/surveillance-technologies/what-lurks-behind-all-immigration-data">raising alarms</a> for years about the impacts of data-driven and biometric surveillance on irregular migrants. But it’s equally important to keep citizens and legal migrants in mind when we think about the risks of increasingly digitised border-control regimes.</p>
<h2>Reliance on biometrics</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353147/original/file-20200817-18-56gxta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man has fingerprint scanned with woman set nearby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353147/original/file-20200817-18-56gxta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353147/original/file-20200817-18-56gxta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353147/original/file-20200817-18-56gxta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353147/original/file-20200817-18-56gxta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353147/original/file-20200817-18-56gxta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353147/original/file-20200817-18-56gxta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353147/original/file-20200817-18-56gxta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biometric technology has become routine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Klein Ongaki</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hamdi’s troubles can be traced to the growing use of biometric data (such as fingerprint and iris scanning) within the humanitarian sector. In the years after 9/11, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) began <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26292335">experimenting with iris scans</a> along the Afghanistan-Pakistan frontier. With the backing of the US, the agency developed a standardised biometric registration system, now in use in Kenya and <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/internationaldevelopment/2019/07/18/biometric-refugee-registration-between-benefits-risks-and-ethics/">over 50 host countries</a> worldwide. </p>
<p>The Kenyan government soon followed suit, building its own biometric refugee database with support from the UNHCR. Today, Kenyan officials are <a href="http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/575001469771718036/pdf/Kenya-ID4D-Diagnostic-WebV42018.pdf">able to cross-check</a> the fingerprints of those who apply for a national ID, effectively shutting the door of citizenship to anyone found on the refugee database. Without a national ID in Kenya, many basic political and economic rights are <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/06/politics-identity-belonging-ken-201462354628329892.html">out of reach</a>. </p>
<p>These developments in Kenya mirror broader global trends. States, refugee aid organisations, and international border-control agencies increasingly rely upon centralised biometric databases to better track migration. States and intergovernmental bodies also stress the <a href="https://www.codastory.com/authoritarian-tech/eu-border-patrol-technology/">value of interoperability</a>, which is the ability to exchange and make use of data across different systems. </p>
<p>EU member states, for example, use <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/dataset/ds00008_en">EURODAC</a>, an asylum fingerprint database, when processing the applications of asylum seekers. Beginning in 2008, migrants in the UK who originate from outside the European Economic Area have been required to carry <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2008/9780110818382/contents">biometric residence permits</a>. </p>
<h2>Hostile environment</h2>
<p>The gathering and indefinite storage of biometric data has gone hand in hand with other forms of data collection. In 2012, the UK government launched its <a href="https://theconversation.com/hostile-environment-the-uk-governments-draconian-immigration-policy-explained-95460">hostile environment policy</a>, which put in place measures designed to make life more challenging for irregular migrants. Under this new regime, the Home Office can <a href="https://www.freemovement.org.uk/briefing-what-is-the-hostile-environment-where-does-it-come-from-who-does-it-affect/">access data</a> from hospitals, banks, employers and landlords.</p>
<p>Though intended to root out “illegal” immigrants, these policies punished many legal migrants of Caribbean descent and their children. Known collectively as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/windrush-generation-latest-to-be-stripped-of-their-rights-in-the-name-of-migration-control-95158">Windrush generation</a> (after <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17449850902819920">the celebrated ship</a> that carried Caribbean people to Britain in 1948), Commonwealth citizens who immigrated before 1973 have the <a href="https://globalcit.eu/the-windrush-generation-and-citizenship/">legal right</a> to live in the UK. </p>
<p>Many members of such British-Caribbean families were nevertheless harassed by Home Office staff, denied services, illegally detained and, in extreme cases, deported to countries they barely knew. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/09/special-needs-teacher-uk-50-years-loses-job-immigration-status">Michael Braithwaite</a>, who had lived in the UK for over 55 years, lost his job when a routine immigration check revealed that he did not have a biometric residence permit.</p>
<h2>Data dangers</h2>
<p>While scholars and privacy advocates are rightly concerned about big data <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/14/public-faces-mass-invasion-of-privacy-as-big-data-and-surveillance-merge">expanding the scope</a> of government oversight, we should also consider the blindness built into many data-heavy surveillance systems. Collecting ever more <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-paris-its-traditional-detective-work-that-will-keep-us-safe-not-mass-surveillance-50830">fine-grained sensitive data</a> does not necessarily give states or international bodies a more accurate picture of individuals’ lives. </p>
<p>Trust in automated decision-making can also lead to blunt, inaccurate assessments of people’s legal status. Growing demands for identification can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/asr.2016.39">increase opportunities for gatekeeping</a>, which may exclude those whose legal documents or biometric data do not tell the “correct” bureaucratic story. </p>
<p>In addition, officials frequently privilege easily accessible digital records and biometric data over older, often more straightforward paper documents. Many Kenyans denied IDs had ample proof of citizenship, including birth certificates, letters from local chiefs attesting to their parentage and school records. In 2010, the Home Office negligently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/17/home-office-destroyed-windrush-landing-cards-says-ex-staffer">destroyed the</a> paper landing cards of Windrush migrants, which had been used in deciding immigration cases.</p>
<p>Proponents of enhanced border security often <a href="https://spheres-journal.org/contribution/the-body-border-governing-irregular-migration-through-biometric-technology/">argue that</a> technologies like biometrics are more objective, neutral, and non-discriminatory. The hardships faced by thousands of British Caribbeans and Kenyan Somalis, however, tell a different story. </p>
<p>Individuals and groups who share the same ethnic or national background as targeted migrants may find themselves the unwitting victims of data-driven border enforcement. A callous, shortsighted faith in digital border controls has rendered many ethnic-minority citizens and legal migrants effectively stateless.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144399/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Research for this piece was funded by a grant from Privacy International. Keren Weitzberg's research into biometrics and identification in East Africa has also been funded by the British Academy/Leverhulme Trust, the American Council of Learned Societies, the Fulbright US Scholar program, and the British Institute in Eastern Africa.</span></em></p>Biometric data is being used to target those deemed unwanted aliens.Keren Weitzberg, Teaching Fellow in History, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1437462020-08-10T03:41:26Z2020-08-10T03:41:26ZA new community case of COVID-19 in New Zealand is a matter of when, not if. Is the country prepared for it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351201/original/file-20200805-46916-1ndwhxu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=19%2C14%2C3246%2C2027&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Nick Perry</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: On Tuesday August 11, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern activated a resurgence plan after four new cases of COVID-19 with no traceable links to quarantine or border facilities were confirmed. This takes Auckland back to alert level 3 restrictions and the rest of the country to level 2 until midnight Friday (August 14) to allow for tracing and testing of contacts.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/08/10/successful-covid-19-contact-tracing-systems-for-new-zealand/">Our latest modelling</a> shows New Zealanders need to redouble their efforts to keep track of people they meet, if we are to have a chance of controlling any re-emergence of COVID-19.</p>
<p>The director general of health, Ashley Bloomfield, recently warned that <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018758017/a-matter-of-when-not-if-ashley-bloomfield-warns-covid-19-community-transmission-in-nz-inevitable">a new case of COVID-19 community transmission</a> is a matter of when, not if. He said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We’re working on the basis it could be anytime, of course coupled with doing everything we can to intercept the virus at the border and stop it coming any further.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So far, our border restrictions and quarantine have kept the virus out, but with the pandemic accelerating globally, the threat of re-emergence is small but ever present. Should an infectious person slip through the border, <a href="https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/08/10/successful-covid-19-contact-tracing-systems-for-new-zealand/">our modelling</a> shows comprehensive contact tracing and quick isolation are our best defences, without having to resort to another full lockdown.</p>
<h2>Speed is of the essence</h2>
<p>New Zealand has now gone for <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/no-new-cases-covid-19-44">100 days</a> with no community transmission of COVID-19. </p>
<p>One way to measure the effectiveness of public health measures such as contact tracing is the virus reproduction number: the number of secondary infections for each new positive case. If this number can be kept below one, then one missed case at the border won’t lead to an outbreak. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/08/10/successful-covid-19-contact-tracing-systems-for-new-zealand/">new modelling results</a> show that if we can trace and quarantine 80% of contacts within two days on average, we can reduce the effective reproduction number from 2.5 to 1.5. Some additional physical distancing and mask use could bring the number below one. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1292304732749348866"}"></div></p>
<p>But contact tracing can only do this if we all help. So far, more than 600,000 new Zealanders have registered for the <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-resources-and-tools/nz-covid-tracer-app">NZ COVID Tracer app</a>, which now allows manual entries as well as scanning business QR codes. But regular use has been <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421315/aucklanders-question-use-of-covid-19-tracing-app-why-would-we-scan-it">slow to catch on</a>.</p>
<p>Our modelling also shows people will need to quarantine themselves promptly, even before they have symptoms. This might sound obvious, but it is easier said than done, especially for people in insecure employment, without paid sick leave, or with care-giving responsibilities. </p>
<p>The statutory sick leave entitlement in New Zealand is only five days but traced contacts may need to quarantine for up to 14 days, in some cases without showing any signs of illness. In England, there are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/09/we-cant-ease-lockdown-any-more-expert-warns-as-testing-calls-grow?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Email">fears people are reluctant to pass on details of contacts</a> who may not have the financial resources to self-isolate. </p>
<p>In Australia, the state of Victoria has recently introduced a <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/1500-coronavirus-covid-19-worker-support-payment">A$1,500 payment</a> for people required to isolate after they or a household member tests positive. The Scottish government has also recognised the importance of this, adopting a “<a href="https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/advice-and-guidance/2020/05/coronavirus-covid-19-test-trace-isolate-support/documents/covid-19-test-trace-isolate-support-public-health-approach-maintaining-low-levels-community-transmission-covid-19-scotland/covid-19-test-trace-isolate-support-public-health-approach-maintaining-low-levels-community-transmission-covid-19-scotland/govscot%3Adocument/covid-19-test-trace-isolate-support-public-health-approach-maintaining-low-levels-community-transmission-covid-19-scotland.pdf">test, trace, isolate, support</a>” approach. We need similar support put in place in New Zealand. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-new-zealand-could-keep-eliminating-coronavirus-at-its-border-for-months-to-come-even-as-the-global-pandemic-worsens-142368">How New Zealand could keep eliminating coronavirus at its border for months to come, even as the global pandemic worsens</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Check in machines at airport" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351872/original/file-20200810-18-1jtw1vz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351872/original/file-20200810-18-1jtw1vz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351872/original/file-20200810-18-1jtw1vz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351872/original/file-20200810-18-1jtw1vz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351872/original/file-20200810-18-1jtw1vz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351872/original/file-20200810-18-1jtw1vz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351872/original/file-20200810-18-1jtw1vz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People who work in airports are at higher risk of catching the virus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mark Baker</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Targeted testing</h2>
<p>Once an outbreak gets too large, the contact tracing system will not cope. The earlier we can catch an outbreak, the better chance we have of containing it. This means doing lots of testing. Our current <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases#lab">testing rate</a> has dropped to around 2,000 per day from a high of around 7,500 per day in late June. We could be testing more people, but it is important to target <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/">high-risk groups</a>.</p>
<p>At the moment, New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/07/16/effect-of-new-zealand-border-controls-on-covid-19-reincursion-risk/">biggest risk is at the border</a>. We already <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/travel-and-the-border/travel-to-new-zealand/complete-your-isolation/">test international arrivals twice</a> during their quarantine. </p>
<p>People who work at the border, either in airports or at quarantine facilities, are also at higher risk of catching the virus. This is how <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-02/victoria-hotel-quarantine-breaches-inquiry-launched/12414612">Melbourne’s current outbreak started</a>. It is crucial these workers are trained in infection prevention and proper use of protective equipment, and separated from people in quarantine. </p>
<p>Staff at quarantine hotels in Rotorua and Hamilton are now being <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12353580">tested fortnightly</a> and have daily symptom checks. This needs to be extended to all staff at airports and quarantine facilities who have any contact with quarantined arrivals.</p>
<p>People with <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/18-03-2020/siouxsie-wiles-how-testing-for-covid-19-works/">symptoms of COVID-19</a> should also be offered tests. If the border keeps doing its job, all of these tests will come back negative. But if we do get a case, we are much more likely to find it by testing people with symptoms rather than just testing randomly.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-endless-game-of-covid-19-whack-a-mole-a-new-zealand-expert-on-why-melbournes-stage-4-lockdown-should-cover-all-of-victoria-143831">'An endless game of COVID-19 whack-a-mole': a New Zealand expert on why Melbourne's stage 4 lockdown should cover all of Victoria</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Digital contact tracing</h2>
<p>Because speed is essential, there is interest around the world in digital tracing systems such as Bluetooth apps or cards. But an effective digital tracing system needs to be well integrated with manual contact tracing. </p>
<p>A system that immediately provides a list of close contacts and phone numbers could make the job easier and faster for contact tracers. Apps that just send an automatic notification with no follow-up are less likely to result in effective quarantine. </p>
<p>Even with gold-standard contact tracing, our model suggests we would need to follow moderate social distancing rules to bring the reproduction number below one. If we don’t get on top of an outbreak very quickly, we can expect limits on gathering size, or even regional or national lockdowns. Past experience has shown that starting these measures as early as possible is the key to successful elimination.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143746/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Plank is affiliated with the University of Canterbury and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex James is affiliated with the University of Canterbury and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Audrey Lustig is affiliated with Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research and receives funding from Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Steyn is affiliated with the University of Auckland and receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachelle Binny is affiliated with Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research and receives funding from Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Hendy is affiliated with the University of Auckland and is on the Council of the New Zealand Association of Scientists. He receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand's Centre of Research Excellence in complex systems. </span></em></p>Border restrictions and quarantine have kept COVID-19 out of New Zealand, but new modelling shows contact tracing and quick isolation would control an outbreak, without the need for another lockdown.Michael Plank, Professor in Mathematics, University of CanterburyAlex James, Associate professor, University of CanterburyAudrey Lustig, Research scientist, Manaaki Whenua - Landcare ResearchNicholas Steyn, Research assistant, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauRachelle Binny, Research scientist, Manaaki Whenua - Landcare ResearchShaun Hendy, Professor of Physics, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1430822020-07-21T02:10:29Z2020-07-21T02:10:29ZThere is no legal right to free quarantine — but there is a fair way to set the price<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348516/original/file-20200721-102864-lmufd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5447%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Welcome home – now here’s your invoice. </p>
<p>The debate over whether New Zealand should charge arriving Kiwis for quarantine has divided opinion, but one thing is clear: citizens and permanent residents have the right to return home. </p>
<p>However, like many other liberties, this right can be subject to reasonable limits, especially during times of global emergency. </p>
<p>But it’s a surprisingly difficult issue. Despite all the newly minted law around COVID-19, the question of financial liability for isolation is not covered.</p>
<p>The challenge for the next government will be to balance rights and costs in a way that is seen to be fair.</p>
<h2>Quarantine costs will rise</h2>
<p>Right now, the 2020 Public Health Act Response Act <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2020/0012/latest/LMS344177.html?search=sw_096be8ed819b7ed5_quarantine_25_se&p=1&sr=0">authorises</a> quarantines and control of our <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2020/0120/latest/whole.html#LMS360127">air</a> and <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2020/0134/latest/resultsin.aspx?search=sw_096be8ed819b4621_quarantine_25_se&p=1">maritime</a> borders. In short, anyone returning to New Zealand may be subject to <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2020/0120/latest/whole.html#LMS360127">mandatory</a> medical examination, testing and isolation or quarantining. </p>
<p>That is, of course, if they can make it home. With inbound numbers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/07/new-zealand-rations-places-for-citizens-returning-home-during-covid-19">regulated</a> due to quarantine and isolation capacity, the first hurdle for many would-be returnees is getting a flight. </p>
<p>From March 26 to July 6, <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-border-controls/covid-19-quarantine-and-managed-isolation-numbers">26,414</a> people have been quarantined or in managed isolation at 26 different sites. On the last day of that period there were just under 5,700 under control. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-new-zealand-could-keep-eliminating-coronavirus-at-its-border-for-months-to-come-even-as-the-global-pandemic-worsens-142368">How New Zealand could keep eliminating coronavirus at its border for months to come, even as the global pandemic worsens</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We’ve already spent NZ$81 million on such operations. Another nearly NZ$300 million has been <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12342021">budgeted</a> for the rest of the year. </p>
<p>These costs will probably increase in 2021. Current trends suggest a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html">growing</a>, not diminishing, global pandemic. As the health and economic impacts of this wave crash over other countries, it’s likely many more Kiwis will want to return to their (hopefully) safe homeland. </p>
<p>Inevitably, then, quarantine standards (and costs) will grow too. The lessons from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-20/victoria-coronavirus-hotel-quarantine-inquiry-day-1-in-melbourne/12471916">Victoria</a> and our own experience of people <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12345639">abusing</a> the system only reinforce the need for a fail-safe system.</p>
<p>Australia has also grappled with the question of who should pay and has concluded there is no federal right to free quarantine. Each state has the <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/while-youre-away/returning-australia">right to ask</a> for a contribution to the cost of quarantine. </p>
<p>For New Zealand, there are two ways to think about this. One says free quarantine is a right and also a public good; if people have to pay for their isolation their right to return to New Zealand is threatened. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sun-is-setting-on-unsustainable-long-haul-short-stay-tourism-regional-travel-bubbles-are-the-future-140926">The sun is setting on unsustainable long-haul, short-stay tourism — regional travel bubbles are the future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>The other says that returning is a free choice with a financial cost. Both major political parties want to charge returnees, with the National Party putting a <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300060226/coronavirus-national-keen-to-charge-returning-kiwis-3000-for-their-quarantine">figure</a> of NZ$3,000 on a single adult’s quarantine. </p>
<p>How to balance those views?</p>
<h2>Entitlement versus privilege</h2>
<p>The government has already spent, or <a href="https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/budgets/budget-2020">plans to spend</a>, an incredible NZ$62.1 billion on fighting COVID-19. It can be argued, then, that the cost of isolating our fellow Kiwis is the same as the cost of keeping people in work, creating new jobs, building infrastructure and propping up critical sectors of the economy.</p>
<p>Quarantine is therefore an entitlement, like the right to paid parental or sick leave, and should be free. </p>
<p>The opposing argument is that it is fair to require those who took advantage of a liberty to travel and return to pay the associated costs. Within two weeks of their return they will reap all of the benefits of being home in a COVID-free country. </p>
<p>This isn’t what they would experience if they had stayed abroad. A New Zealander requiring isolation overseas could expect <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/countries-and-regions/united-nations/new-zealand-permanent-mission-geneva/consulate-services-for-new-zealanders/">consular assistance</a>, including advice and help contacting family and insurance providers. But they would not have their quarantine paid for. </p>
<p>Similarly, in New Zealand there is actually no legal right to have quarantine paid for by the government. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-law-is-clear-border-testing-is-enforceable-so-why-did-new-zealands-quarantine-system-break-down-141036">The law is clear – border testing is enforceable. So why did New Zealand's quarantine system break down?</a>
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<p>Under the <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1956/0065/latest/whole.html?search=sw_096be8ed819562fd_costs_25_se&p=1#DLM308405">Health Act</a> it is possible to charge a reasonable cost for isolation and also to exempt someone from having to pay. Legally, the government can demand payment but also, it can waive it.</p>
<p>This suggests a middle ground needs to be found based on what is fair. </p>
<h2>A reasonable way forward</h2>
<p>Potentially, some people should pay more than others. Those who travelled overseas after the pandemic was declared and then sought to return, or those who are coming home for a holiday or short-term respite from the horrors overseas could pay the full amount. </p>
<p>The government could offer a range of quarantine hotels at different prices. Those returning broke to their homeland should be given discounted rates and zero- or low-interest loans to pay for quarantine.</p>
<p>Should those required to pay the full cost expect preferential treatment and better accommodation? Does this open the door for private providers to exploit a growing quarantine market?</p>
<p>These questions undoubtedly help explain why the minister responsible for managed isolation and quarantine, Megan Woods, says it is a “<a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/421575/cabinet-working-through-legal-issues-of-charging-returning-kiwis-for-managed-isolation">very complex</a>” issue. </p>
<p>It seems fair, though, that although there is no right to free quarantine, the price of rejoining the “team of 5 million” should be charged according to a person’s ability to pay.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143082/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Gillespie has received funding from the NZ Law Foundation and the Belgian Francqui Foundation, but neither was relevant to this article.</span></em></p>With the cost of quarantine sure to rise, the government should look at a fair system based on returning New Zealanders’ ability to pay.Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1410362020-06-18T04:53:28Z2020-06-18T04:53:28ZThe law is clear – border testing is enforceable. So why did New Zealand’s quarantine system break down?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342602/original/file-20200618-41217-ku28lm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4888%2C3261&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The anger and frustration at New Zealand’s border <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300035945/coronavirus-two-women-who-travelled-to-nz-from-the-uk-test-positive-for-covid19">quarantine failure</a> have been palpable. </p>
<p>Two women, recently arrived in New Zealand, were granted compassionate leave from quarantine to be with grieving family after a parent’s death. But they were not tested for COVID-19 before being allowed to travel the length of the North Island by car. Both later tested positive.</p>
<p>Since news of the failure broke, other examples of mismanagement and <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018751197/frustration-at-bumbling-quarantine-health-officials">claims</a> of an overly relaxed quarantine regime have emerged.</p>
<p>Having endured lockdown and now nursing an ailing economy back to life, the “team of 5 million” has not been forgiving. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/wednesday-briefing-ardern-blasts-failure-of-new-zealand-quarantine">Nor has Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern</a>, who directed her director-general of health to immediately suspend compassionate exemptions for anyone in quarantine.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2-new-covid-19-cases-in-new-zealand-but-elimination-of-community-transmission-still-stands-140843">2 new COVID-19 cases in New Zealand, but elimination of community transmission still stands</a>
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<p>The fact she has also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-newzealand/new-zealand-military-to-oversee-quarantine-facilities-after-new-covid-19-case-idUSKBN23O0AB">called in the military</a> to oversee quarantine facilities and strengthen border control speaks volumes. The deployment of our armed forces was always an option during the emergency. The government wisely chose not to do so in any highly visible way.</p>
<p>Now it’s different. But rather than being a move against non-compliant New Zealand citizens or visitors to the country, it’s a last resort in response to the failed bureaucracy that allowed the mistakes to happen.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1273367196954058752"}"></div></p>
<h2>Legal uncertainty is not to blame</h2>
<p>While the specific point of breakdown in the chain of command governing quarantine management has yet to be pinpointed, one thing is beyond doubt: this is not a matter of legal uncertainties.</p>
<p>The powers of the government in <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1956/0065/latest/whole.html#DLM307083">times of infectious and notifiable disease</a> are vast under the Health Act. With the paramount goal of protecting public health, the obligation to direct people for medical examination and contact tracing is clear.</p>
<p>If there was any doubt about those existing powers during the COVID-19 crisis, two other pieces of legislation cleared it up.</p>
<p>First, specific laws were introduced with the <a href="http://www.nzlii.org/nz/legis/consol_act/i19raa2020369/">Immigration (COVID-19 Response) Amendment Act</a>. This gave the government additional powers to add conditions to all forms of visas as is “reasonably necessary to manage the effects, or deal with the consequences, of […] COVID-19”.</p>
<p>Second, the much-disputed COVID-19 Public Health Response Act 2020 established <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2020/0012/latest/LMS344177.html">orders</a> that could be made to “require persons to refrain from taking any specified actions that contribute or are likely to contribute to the risk of the outbreak or spread of COVID-19”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-next-once-a-century-pandemic-is-coming-sooner-than-you-think-but-covid-19-can-help-us-get-ready-139976">The next once-a-century pandemic is coming sooner than you think – but COVID-19 can help us get ready</a>
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<p>Those orders extend to requiring people to be isolated or quarantined, report for medical examination or testing, and provide any information needed for contact tracing.</p>
<p>At the core of this debate is a question of compulsion. The challenge lies in finding a path between the continuing global emergency and a domestic situation that is largely controlled but vulnerable. Enforced quarantine, mandatory testing and contact tracing are the logical solutions in protecting our borders, and the current legislation provides for them. </p>
<p>Longer term – especially if and when a vaccine is developed – this will be a difficult debate. Kiwis (rightly) do not like the idea of compulsion, unless there is a clear and declared emergency.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1990/0109/latest/DLM225509.html">right to refuse</a> to undergo any medical treatment became part of our Bill of Rights. This has been interpreted as the right to object to a range of medical practices, vaccinations being most notable. The question will be whether this interpretation is correct and, if so, whether it can be overridden for the public good.</p>
<p>Regardless, the existing pieces of legislation should have been ample to protect the population from exposure to the two women in question.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-crisis-shows-why-new-zealand-urgently-needs-a-commissioner-for-older-people-139383">The coronavirus crisis shows why New Zealand urgently needs a commissioner for older people</a>
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<h2>We need a royal commission of inquiry</h2>
<p>There is now an immediate need to assign accountability to the individuals or groups responsible for putting the community at risk. And this leads to the greater need for a <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2013/0060/48.0/DLM1566112.html">royal commission</a> to critically examine this current problem and many others, in the overall way that COVID-19 had been dealt with.</p>
<p>From the first national diagnosis of the COVID-19 crisis all the way to the recovery processes, a royal commission should be tasked with reviewing it all: the health, scientific, economic, constitutional, legal and cultural elements of the event.</p>
<p>This would provide a public record of what worked, what didn’t, what gaps were apparent and what could be improved next time. And it is the next time we have to be particularly worried about. Pandemics are an intergenerational problem, and what we are enduring will not be the last such experience.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Gillespie has received funding from the NZ Law Foundation and the Francqui Foundation.</span></em></p>Multiple failures to properly enforce border quarantine measures should never have happened, given the strength of New Zealand’s emergency laws.Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1343932020-03-23T19:05:39Z2020-03-23T19:05:39ZWe’re running out of time to use Endgame C to drive coronavirus infections down to zero<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322279/original/file-20200323-112677-zhoxr0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=371%2C173%2C2670%2C1718&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New South Wales and Victorian governments showed foresight on Sunday by announcing a <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-from-the-premier-32/">shut-down</a> of all non-essential activity. We described this strategy on Saturday as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-endgame-c-stop-almost-everything-restart-when-coronavirus-is-gone-134232">Endgame C</a> – with the goal to drive new infections down to zero. </p>
<p>But after meeting Prime Minister Scott Morrison last night, the two states <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-entertainment-venues-closed-in-draconian-measures-to-fight-the-virus-134360">backtracked</a> and for now will only close pubs, clubs, cinemas, nightclubs, and restaurants. Schools will be closed in Victoria and the ACT, and parents will be encouraged to keep their children home in NSW.</p>
<p>State governments should stick to their guns and move more quickly to shutting down more non-essential businesses and activities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-endgame-c-stop-almost-everything-restart-when-coronavirus-is-gone-134232">The case for Endgame C: stop almost everything, restart when coronavirus is gone</a>
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<p>Our best hope to limit the long-term economic damage and to save the lives of our friends and families is to do everything we can to reverse the spread of this virus. </p>
<p>Coronavirus is growing exponentially in Australia – with a sufficiently broad shutdown, it should fall exponentially as well. Choosing Endgame C now means that the shut-down will be much shorter than if we wait another week.</p>
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<p><strong>Australian COVID-19 cases up to Monday March 23</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322287/original/file-20200323-112661-14osytw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322287/original/file-20200323-112661-14osytw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322287/original/file-20200323-112661-14osytw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322287/original/file-20200323-112661-14osytw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322287/original/file-20200323-112661-14osytw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322287/original/file-20200323-112661-14osytw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322287/original/file-20200323-112661-14osytw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322287/original/file-20200323-112661-14osytw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The goal should be to all but remove coronavirus from the community as soon as possible. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-modelling-shows-the-government-is-getting-the-balance-right-if-our-aim-is-to-flatten-the-curve-134040">Modelling</a> shows that “flattening the curve” is unlikely to save the health care system, and it definitely won’t save the economy. </p>
<p>Business cannot return to normal while this disease festers. But once infections are very low, tracking and tracing them becomes feasible, particularly if we upgrade existing systems.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-by-state-how-australias-new-coronavirus-rules-will-affect-you-134379">State-by-state: how Australia's new coronavirus rules will affect you</a>
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<p>Whatever restrictions are implemented, the challenge for the states will be to set community expectations so there is all but universal compliance.</p>
<p>The most effective public health messages are clear and simple. When people are told that it is too dangerous to go to a café but they are <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/update-coronavirus-measures-220320">fine to get a haircut</a>, they are right to be confused. </p>
<p>If the messages are contradictory, many people will ignore them, and we will waste our best chance to contain this virus. </p>
<p>Legal enforcement also helps to send the message, and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews should be commended for announcing that <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-from-the-premier-33/">500 police</a> will be knocking on doors to check that people are following self-isolation rules. </p>
<h2>We’ll need control of our borders</h2>
<p>The federal government must also step up and take control of our borders. If they cannot track every new entrant to ensure compliance, the borders should be closed to passengers completely, or quarantine should be enforced in airport hotels. </p>
<p>Australians may be complacent about the spread of coronavirus because we so far have had fewer cases than the UK, the US or Italy. But Australia is a smaller country; we need far fewer cases to create a crisis.</p>
<p>We are only just behind the UK when it comes to coronavirus cases per person, and only a couple of days behind France, Germany and the US. We are in a similar position to Italy three weeks ago. </p>
<p>Our biggest advantage is that we are testing more people than these countries, and growth of infections is a little slower, but there are no signs yet that we are changing the trajectory of our infection rates. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322267/original/file-20200323-112720-1yg33lf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322267/original/file-20200323-112720-1yg33lf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322267/original/file-20200323-112720-1yg33lf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322267/original/file-20200323-112720-1yg33lf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322267/original/file-20200323-112720-1yg33lf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322267/original/file-20200323-112720-1yg33lf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322267/original/file-20200323-112720-1yg33lf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322267/original/file-20200323-112720-1yg33lf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data current as at Monday March 23, 2020. The rate of testing is not equal across countries. Three-day average of new cases used because not all countries report accurately on weekends.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our best endgame is to do everything we can to reduce infection rates. Over the coming days there will be many ideas about ways we can minimise the chance of this virus spreading. Some countries have been successful without implementing every single measure. </p>
<p>But every country is different – what works in one <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/106/9/3243">climate</a> or culture might not be as effective in Australia. The risks of doing too little too late are high. The risks of doing too much are relatively small. </p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-politicians-are-not-fit-to-oversee-the-coronavirus-response-its-time-they-got-out-of-the-way-134035">Our politicians are not fit to oversee the coronavirus response. It's time they got out of the way</a>
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<p>If Endgame C succeeds, Australians society will be able to slowly return much more closely to normal functioning after eight to twelve weeks. </p>
<p>South Korea, Singapore, and Hubei province in China have successfully implemented Endgame C – and their infection rates have fallen. </p>
<p>Economic life is reappearing, and they now have the benefit of a public health workforce that can focus laser-like attention on any new outbreaks to prevent widespread community spread. </p>
<p>With Endgame C, Australians can have hope for a brighter future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Nolan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victoria and NSW have demonstrated that a severe and relatively short shutdown is still possible.John Daley, Chief Executive Officer, Grattan InstituteJonathan Nolan, Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1337792020-03-16T23:38:48Z2020-03-16T23:38:48ZWhy NZ’s tough coronavirus travel rules are crucial to protecting lives at home and across the Pacific<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320868/original/file-20200316-27692-1huaari.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C215%2C5982%2C3772&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s border restrictions will come with significant job and business losses in the tourism sector, both at home and in the Pacific. But the new travel rules are absolutely necessary to protect the health of New Zealanders and people right across Pacific Islands, because New Zealand is a gateway country for many travellers entering the region. </p>
<p>Health systems in Pacific Island countries are <a href="https://www.who.int/westernpacific/activities/strengthening-pacific-health-systems">under-resourced</a> and people often live communally, putting them at greater risk of transmission. New Zealanders have good reason to be particularly aware of this because of the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/406802/two-more-deaths-from-measles-in-samoa-over-new-year-period">Samoan measles outbreak</a> in late 2019, which claimed 83 lives. It is likely that the disease came into Samoa from someone travelling from Auckland.</p>
<p>Speaking at the University of the South Pacific in Suva last month, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/410430/new-zealand-to-give-2m-to-fiji-climate-change-relocation-fund">promised New Zealand would assist</a> with issues such as climate change and infectious diseases because they are “borderless challenges and they demand a collective response”.</p>
<p>Drawing from the experience of the measles outbreak, Samoa announced in January that visitors would only be allowed into the country if they had <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/408478/coronavirus-samoa-s-preventative-measures-hitting-travellers">medical clearance</a> within three days before travelling. </p>
<p>This weekend, Samoa’s rules <a href="http://www.samoagovt.ws/2020/03/updated-travel-advisory-novel-coronavirus-covid-2019/">became even stricter</a>. Travellers from 33 countries where COVID-19 has been spreading – including Australia - now have to self-quarantine for 14 days before arrival and show evidence of a clear COVID-19 test no older than five days.</p>
<h2>The economic hit to NZ’s biggest export earner</h2>
<p>Tourism is New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/about/about-the-tourism-industry/">biggest export earner</a>, contributing 21% of foreign exchange earnings and 5.8% of GDP. The industry has thrived in recent years and employs <a href="https://tia.org.nz/about-the-industry/quick-facts-and-figures/">229,566 people</a>. </p>
<p>Within a day of the <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/major-steps-taken-protect-new-zealanders-covid-19">new border rules</a>, Air New Zealand announced cuts to services to the US, Canada, Argentina, Japan and the UK and confirmed it is looking to reduce staff by up to 30%, with 3750 people affected. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-decision-to-close-its-borders-will-hurt-tourism-but-its-the-right-thing-to-do-133707">NZ's decision to close its borders will hurt tourism but it's the right thing to do</a>
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<p>Ardern’s border control announcement is <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/411788/queenstown-bracing-for-devastating-loss-of-visitors">devastating news</a> for many tourism businesses. Some are already struggling because <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-zealand-restrict-travel-china-protect-against-coronavirus">Chinese tourists were barred</a> from entering New Zealand at the start of February. Now most tourists will be cancelling or postponing travel plans, and some <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/411753/travellers-self-isolation-warning-tens-of-thousands-of-tourism-jobs-in-jeopardy">tourism businesses may go under</a>.</p>
<p>Tourism Industry Aotearoa chief executive Chris Roberts has called on the government to support the mental health needs of both tourism employers and employees during this “<a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/tourism-boss-pleads-mental-health-support-industry-buckles-under-coronavirus-outbreak">incredibly stressful time</a>”. </p>
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<h2>How NZ’s travel restrictions will affect Pacific tourism</h2>
<p>Tourism is also vital to small economies in the Pacific - it delivers between <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337854342_Development_and_change_Reflections_on_tourism_in_the_South_Pacific">10% and 70% of GDP in eight South Pacific Island states</a>. </p>
<p>New Zealanders and Australians are the major international markets for tourism in Fiji, the Cook Islands and Samoa, and currently both governments have warned against any non-essential international travel. In addition, many Pacific countries <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/anticipating-covid-19-pacific">closed their doors to China</a> some weeks ago, and the impacts from that are already evident.</p>
<p>In particular, Samoa is suffering. It has been dealt a double blow with the measles outbreak a few months ago and now this pandemic. The chief executive of the Samoa Tourism Authority, Fa'amatuainu Lenata'i Suifua, predicts earnings from tourism this calendar year will be half of their usual level. </p>
<p>He told me he fears for the 5,000 people employed in the sector, and for some businesses which are struggling to service their loans. But he believes the travel restrictions are necessary. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The common talk here is that we can always get money back, but once there’s a loss of life you’ll never have that back again, especially in a culture that values its elders.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-weekly-expert-analysis-from-the-conversation-global-network-133646">Coronavirus weekly: expert analysis from The Conversation global network</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How tourists can help with post-COVID-19 recovery</h2>
<p>For now, New Zealanders and Australians should take the government’s advice not to travel internationally for non-essential reasons. Instead, they can support tourism businesses at home. </p>
<p>Exploring our own backyards and reconnecting with nature and culture could be a great way of getting through the challenging times ahead. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-limit-coronavirus-risks-on-public-transport-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-efforts-overseas-133764">To limit coronavirus risks on public transport, here's what we can learn from efforts overseas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the medium term, tourist dollars from Australia and New Zealand could help in the recovery from this health crisis. If possible, people should postpone rather than cancel travel plans for the Pacific. </p>
<p>The well-established rule is that tourists should avoid places during the immediate period of a crisis or disaster but return to support the recovery phase to rebuild economies and lift the population through bringing back a sense of normalcy.</p>
<p>In the wake of COVID-19, people from around the world will still want to travel – and if New Zealand and Pacific countries manage to contain COVID-19 relatively well, this might add to our value globally as safe places to travel.</p>
<p><em>* Stay in touch with The Conversation’s coverage from New Zealand experts by signing up for <a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/newsletters/new-zealand-weekly-58?utm_campaign=System&utm_content=newsletter&utm_medium=TopBar&utm_source=theconversation.com">our weekly newsletter</a> – delivered to you each Wednesday.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Regina Scheyvens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tourism is vital to NZ and small economies in the Pacific. But as the Samoa Tourism Authority’s CEO says, “we can always get money back, but once there’s a loss of life you’ll never have that back”.Regina Scheyvens, Professor of Development Studies, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311662020-02-04T13:05:39Z2020-02-04T13:05:39ZHyper-realistic masks are extremely hard to spot – as our new research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313523/original/file-20200204-41476-1z0pam2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New adventures in silicone. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/davidmranderson/13809961345/in/photolist-66xMqk-ac3LJs-2injxWA-2inkhZe-SWWW78-h5tQsP-azLwDh-dg9VY9-n3kEnP-29Ep6Fj-D88fCv-GFW49-7D4e23-9jtHCu-9j3DBy">David Anderson</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s easy to spot someone wearing a mask, right? Well, new research suggests that it can be much harder than you think. </p>
<p>Masks are a great way to help actors get into character and scare young children at Halloween. Unfortunately, they can also help criminals to commit identity fraud. Hyper-realistic silicone masks of the kind that get torn off in Tom Cruise’s Mission: Impossible movies are being are being used to commit identity crimes. </p>
<p>These masks are incredibly detailed, complete with hair, freckles and wrinkles. They cover the head and chest of the wearer, and include holes for the eyes and mouth which blend seamlessly with the wearer’s skin to create a lifelike appearance.</p>
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<p>There have been a number of prominent cases of people successfully using these masks to fool others. In 2010, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/11/04/canada.disguised.passenger/index.html">CNN reported</a> that an Asian man in his twenties passed through Hong Kong Passport Control undetected, despite wearing a mask that disguised him as an elderly white man which resembled the individual in his stolen passport. He was only detected when a fellow traveller noticed that he had removed the mask during his flight to Canada. The mask wearer was apprehended by the police on landing.</p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DApAb12xyQ">in a widely reported story</a>, an African American man was arrested after being identified from CCTV as the assailant in a bank robbery. It turned out to be a case of mistaken identity, however. It later transpired that the bank robber was in fact a white man wearing a mask. The true perpetrator was only caught when his girlfriend phoned the police to say that she had found a hyper-realistic mask and a bag of money in his closet, after which the police finally put two and two together.</p>
<p>More recently, in 2019, the BBC <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48510027">ran a report</a> entitled, “The fake French minister in a silicone mask who stole millions”. Here, identity fraudsters used a hyper-realistic mask to mimic France’s minister of defence, Jean-Yves Le Drian, as they sought money from people in a hostage scam. It was estimated that the scheme defrauded individuals of around £70 million. The suspect was only rumbled after a linguistic slip of the tongue in which he used the word “vous” rather than “tu” during a conversation.</p>
<h2>Research findings</h2>
<p>These real-world cases show that hyper-realistic silicone masks are believable enough to provide a viable route to identity fraud. But perhaps these fraudsters just got lucky. Perhaps hyper-realistic masks are usually much harder to get away with. <a href="https://www.york.ac.uk/psychology/staff/academicstaff/rob-jenkins/">Rob Jenkins</a> research group and Mike Burton’s <a href="http://www.facevar.com">FaceVar lab</a> from the University of York, set out to address this question. Across <a href="https://cognitiveresearchjournal.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41235-019-0197-9">several studies</a>, they showed that detecting people wearing hyper-realistic masks <a href="https://cognitiveresearchjournal.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41235-018-0118-3">in photographs</a> and <a href="https://cognitiveresearchjournal.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41235-017-0079-y">from memory</a> was indeed extremely difficult. </p>
<p>But what about up close in a real-world border control context? In <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0301006620904614">new research</a> published in the academic journal Perception, Jenkins and his team created a mock airport border control scenario during a public engagement event at the <a href="https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/see-and-do/lates">London Science Museum</a>, which included a “traveller” wearing a hyper-realistic mask. Members of the public were asked a series of graded questions to assess whether they had detected that the individual sitting just two metres in front of them was wearing a mask.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313522/original/file-20200204-41476-1d2hz9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313522/original/file-20200204-41476-1d2hz9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313522/original/file-20200204-41476-1d2hz9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313522/original/file-20200204-41476-1d2hz9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313522/original/file-20200204-41476-1d2hz9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313522/original/file-20200204-41476-1d2hz9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313522/original/file-20200204-41476-1d2hz9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313522/original/file-20200204-41476-1d2hz9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nothing to see here?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0301006620904614">Jenkins et al</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The findings showed that only 13% of participants detected the mask straight away. Of the remaining participants, only 11% reported that they had detected the mask when presented with a series of questions, one of which asked if they thought the traveller was wearing a disguise. </p>
<p>Finally, at the end of the test, participants were told about hyper-realistic mask fraud and asked explicitly whether or not the traveller was wearing such a mask. Remarkably, 10% of participants still failed to detect that the individual in front of them was wearing a mask.</p>
<p>It was remarkable that mask detection rates were so low. And interestingly, even those participants who did detect the mask after being asked explicitly, provided nuanced reasons for their decisions. That is, rather than all of a sudden realising “ah yes, this is quite obviously a mask!”, they reported things like “well, the hairline doesn’t look quite right”, or ‘"there is a lack of expression". </p>
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<p>Our study will add to concerns that these masks are a route to identity fraud. The task now is to find ways to improve people’s rates of detecting when someone is wearing a mask. Some people are much better than others at distinguishing masks from real faces. That opens the door to personnel selection and training.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Forget Halloween masks: these things let you become a whole new person.David James Robertson, Lecturer in Psychology, University of Strathclyde Alice Towler, Post-doctoral Research Fellow, UNSW SydneyJet Sanders, Assistant Professor in Experimental Psychology, London School of Economics and Political ScienceRobin Kramer, Lecturer in the School of Psychology, University of LincolnLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1259542019-11-04T14:32:50Z2019-11-04T14:32:50ZWhy arming officials won’t make Ghana’s borders safer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299053/original/file-20191028-113991-1xb5zmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Security at border crossings in West Africa has increased</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rising levels of insecurity in the West African sub region have led to some countries taking measures to protect their citizens from violence. These include Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Mali. All have adopted various security measures in response to terrorist activities occurring in these countries. </p>
<p>The effect of these actions is that jihadists and criminals have sought to move to neighbouring countries.</p>
<p>To manage the situation, Ghana has taken pre-emptive measures. One was the decision to amend the law that guides the country’s immigration service to deal with terrorism and other violent crime from neighbouring states. Passed three years ago, Ghana’s <a href="https://www.mint.gov.gh/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Immigration_Service_Bill_-2015-1.pdf">Immigration Service Act</a> allowed the country’s immigration officers, for the first time since independence, to bear arms at border posts. </p>
<p>The amendments might be well intentioned. But, on its own, arming border guards to fight terrorism and smuggling isn’t sufficient. This is because the threats that face Ghana are mostly homegrown and not imported via the country’s porous borders.</p>
<h2>Clearing the way for weapons</h2>
<p>In February 2016, then deputy Interior Minister James Agalga <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Immigration-Service-cleared-to-handle-guns-413199">announced</a> that the Ghana Immigration Service had been cleared to bear ammunition. Ghana’s parliament had passed the Immigration Service Act <a href="https://www.mint.gov.gh/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Immigration_Service_Bill_-2015-1.pdf">states that</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>An officer may, in the discharge of duties under this Act or any other enactment, use firearms.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He explained that the decision to arm the service was part of efforts by the government to ensure that state security agencies had the necessary means to fight terrorism. He indicated that because the personnel of the Immigration Service had no power to wield or use arms, they could not deal with people who were violating the country’s immigration laws.</p>
<p>It is obviously important to protect the lives of the personnel of the service and those of civilians. But it’s not clear how arming immigration officers can achieve this. The reason is that small arms fire is not a useful defence against the assault methods chosen by terrorists. Terror attacks involve:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Covert assaults and suicide bombings. On August 28, 2018, seven armed security forces were killed after their vehicle struck a roadside bomb near Fada N'gourma in Burkina Faso. On 11 August, 2018, four gendarmes and a civilian were killed when their vehicle struck a mine about 60 miles from Fada N'gourma. The deadliest ever terrorist attacks in recent times have been <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/2016-was-deadliest-year-ever-for-suicide-bombings-worldwide/">suicide attacks</a>. Side arms can’t stop suicide bombings. Armed security officials were killed in the examples above, and many more can be cited in Nigeria. Even where some attacks are predicted, side arms are not the best option. Prevention requires pre-emptive intelligence, so information is key. </p></li>
<li><p>The use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) because they are easy to make and difficult to detect. The Manchester Arena and Boston Marathon <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/us/explosions-reported-at-site-of-boston-marathon.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0">attacks</a> are cases in point.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What the government should do</h2>
<p>To confront terrorism or any cross-border crime it’s necessary to treat the root causes and not just the symptoms. Corruption in the security system is key in this respect. </p>
<p>Defence corruption is not just a waste of public resources, it actually enables insurgency. Nigeria is a typical example. By the time Muhammadu Buhari took over as president, there was massive corruption in the military. It was established at the time that corruption was responsible for the Boko Haram taking over 14 local government <a href="https://theconversation.com/boko-haram-why-jaw-jaw-might-be-better-than-war-war-for-nigeria-60074">areas</a>.</p>
<p>Buhari replaced top military officers deemed to have corruptly enriched themselves with funds meant for the military or acted unprofessionally. The level of terrorism is not same today as it was when Buhari took over. </p>
<p>The first step would be to enhance border control systems that are built on trust and cordial relations between border security officials and local border communities for intelligence information gathering purposes.</p>
<p>The second step would be to root out corruption among border officials. Recent <a href="https://www.transparency.org/files/content/pages/2019_GCB_Africa.pdf">research</a> by the local chapter of Transparency International, Ghana Integrity Initiative, points to some security institutions being among the most corrupt in the country. An effective reform programme that addresses, among other things, corruption in the security services is needed so that these organisations can pre-empt any terrorist activities. This can be done by improving infrastructure for border officers. Government should also focus on upgrading human and institutional capacity while investing in automation and computerisation. Finally improved salaries as well as oversight are needed.</p>
<p>Two further important elements are public support and government legitimacy. Experience of countries such as the attacks on two mosques at Christchurch in New Zealand and the Indian-administered territory of Jammu and Kashimir <a href="https://thekashmirimages.com/2019/03/13/public-support-strength-of-jkp-in-fight-against-terrorism-dgp/">shows</a> that these factors are key to fighting terrorism against the state and its citizens. </p>
<p>This points to the need for strong information gathering systems. Reporting suspicions of any looming violence to the police by the citizens is key. It’s therefore important for border officers and police officers to build relations with the citizens so that a citizen-oriented approach to policing through information gathering becomes an important link to counter insurgency, smuggling, terrorism and violent crime. </p>
<p>This can only work effectively if citizens are well informed about potential criminal activity and also if officers act professionally. Fairness, impartiality, accessibility and respect for local people are paramount. </p>
<p>A well trained and well resourced immigration service is critical to fight terrorism and border crime – both from outside the country’s borders and from within. </p>
<p>The reform should also involve standard operating procedures and regular reviews to ensure that officers have a good understanding of how terrorism and related violent crimes can be fought. </p>
<p>Even where hard border security exists, either in the form of physical infrastructure or where people are stopped and searched, it is important for the immigration officers to work closely with local communities, and maybe even beyond, to help in information gathering for prompt action to be taken to avert any potential violent crime.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abdul-Jalilu Ateku does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A community driven approach to border patrol could be more useful than providing arms for border guardsAbdul-Jalilu Ateku, Researcher in conflict, peace and security, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1217542019-08-15T13:05:47Z2019-08-15T13:05:47ZSoldiers won’t stem gang violence because South Africa’s army is in a sorry state<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288027/original/file-20190814-136186-1grx23m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South African National Defence Force soldiers in Mitchells Plain on the Cape Flats, Cape Town. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The initial response to the recent deployment of the South African army to areas of Cape Town hit hard by gang violence evoked relief that peace and stability would be <a href="https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/cape-town-murders-weekend-how-many-cape-flats-sandf/">restored to the area</a>. </p>
<p>But this has been replaced with a much more nuanced view. Some community leaders claim the deployment has fallen well short of <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/news/public-seminar-to-explore-army-presence-on-cape-flats-30360488">residents’ expectations</a>. The “lock-down operation” needed to target and identify the culprits behind the violence has not occurred. </p>
<p>Despite their limited mandate, the army has just too few soldiers to patrol the ten suburbs that are home to <a href="http://www.capetalk.co.za/articles/356316/expectations-on-sandf-deployment-were-overinflated-says-expert">over 1 million people</a>. Less than 300 soldiers are on the streets of the Cape Flats, not the 1320 <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2019-07-19-army-deployment-to-the-western-cape-to-cost-r234m/">mentioned by President Cyril Ramaphosa</a>. This figure allows for rotation of troops.</p>
<p>Also, the soldiers will be there for less than the three months, as the deployment is authorised <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2019/07/cape-town-army-deployment-long-term-solution-190719105227447.html">only until 16 September 2019</a>. </p>
<p>The result is that people in the affected areas are fast realising that <a href="https://city-press.news24.com/News/army-or-no-army-residents-live-in-fear-20190803">the army is not the solution</a>. This echoes previous cases were soldiers were deployed to <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/security/civil-security/op-fiela-ii-aims-to-shut-down-crime-hotspots/">crime hot-spots in the country</a> but failed to have a measurable impact. </p>
<p>But, even if more soldiers are requested, the South African National Defence Force simply doesn’t have the capacity to deploy them. This is because it is severely overstretched in terms of both personnel and <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/330025/south-africas-army-has-run-out-of-money-heres-how-bad-things-have-got/">financial resources</a>. </p>
<p>Of the 37 000 in the army, less than half serve in the 14 infantry battalions. One battalion is tied up in peacekeeping operations and 15 companies are deployed on the borders (far short of the 22 required). Some military analysts claim that the army is 8.5 infantry battalions short (roughly 8500 members) to <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/sandf-personnel-strength/">perform their current tasks</a>. </p>
<h2>Capacity problems</h2>
<p>A great deal has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-army-is-in-steady-decline-and-nothings-being-done-to-fix-it-74712">written on the military’s financial woes</a>. In my analysis the real problem lies with its force structure and design. These have driven up personnel costs to unacceptable levels.</p>
<p>In terms of the defence budget the ideal expenditure ratio is <a href="https://theconversation.com/money-has-little-to-do-with-why-south-africasmilitary-is-failing-to-do-its-job-81216">40 % personnel, 30% operations and 30% capital expenditure</a>. Some claim this is closer to 80:5:15 in reality, leading to the defence force being labelled a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-01-30-the-sandfs-real-challenge-its-become-a-welfare-not-a-warfare-agency/">welfare, rather than a warfare agency</a>. </p>
<p>The ideal ratios in terms of expenditure differ by country. This is influenced by mission priorities, tasks and service. The army, for example, is more personnel than capital intensive, <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/sandf-personnel-strength/">compared to the navy and air force</a></p>
<p>It has enough people, but they are just not deployable. There are numerous reasons for this. The approach associated with the contract-based “flexible service system” of short, medium and long term service <a href="http://pmg-assets.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/docs/2004/appendices/040810dodstrategy.htm">has not materialised</a>.</p>
<p>The result is an escalation in personnel expenditure, the retention of people who are no longer fit for their post profile due to age and health, a high ratio of general officers to other ranks, and rank inflation making the armed forces top heavy. Senior ranks are very expensive with extensive salary and pension costs.</p>
<p>Added to this the military has been unable to reduce the number of people in the full-time force through rationalisation and <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/sandf-personnel-could-be-trimmed-by-ten-thousand/">rightsizing</a>, or to rejuvenate its full-time and reserve forces.</p>
<p>Another challenge is the age profile. In 2003 the defence force introduced the military skills development programme to rejuvenate the full-time and reserve forces. The programme was to provide an adequate number of young, fit and healthy personnel for the full time forces; and to serve as a feeder for the Reserve Force. This has not happened due to financial restraints and lack of career planning, leaving the reserves <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/opinion/1921038/sa-look-after-your-soldiers">understaffed and underfunded</a>.</p>
<p>The consequence is an ageing force with average troop age of 38 years and the Reserve Force age of <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/opinion/1921038/sa-look-after-your-soldiers">around 40 years</a>. The average age of an infantry soldier should be around <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/sandf-personnel-strength/">23-25 years</a>.</p>
<h2>Redesigning the defence force</h2>
<p>The other factor affecting the capacity of the military is its force design. The South African National Defence Force is structured, funded and
trained for its primary, <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/sa-defence/sa-defencesa-defence/feature-sandf-outlines-threats-priorities">not secondary tasks</a>. Using the military continuously in internal
secondary roles has stretched it beyond capacity and contributed to its <a href="http://thebrenthurstfoundation.org/workspace/files/2011-07-south-african-defence-brenthurst-paper-.pdf">downward spiral of decline</a>.</p>
<p>There is a clear “disconnect between the defence mandate, government expectation and <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-01-07-south-africas-military-at-a-crossroads">resource allocation”</a>. If the government is serious about providing security for its citizens, it is crucial to fix the structure and design of the force, which have eroded its capacity to function optimally. Failure to do so will have dire implications for the defence force’s ability to carry out its mandate – to protect the country and its citizens as required by the Constitution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lindy Heinecken does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Using the military continuously in internal roles for which it is not structured, funded or trained simply speeds up its decline.Lindy Heinecken, Chair of the Department of Sociology and Social Anthropology, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/946212018-04-09T10:47:10Z2018-04-09T10:47:10ZRemind us: What exactly is the National Guard?<p>President Donald Trump recently <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-says-he-wants-to-send-2000-to-4000-national-guard-troops-to-mexican-border/2018/04/05/bab01f6a-391a-11e8-8fd2-49fe3c675a89_story.html?utm_term=.f42d68b9b804">announced</a> his plan to dispatch National Guard troops to the southern border to assist with security efforts. </p>
<p>The Army National Guard is the <a href="http://www.nationalguard.mil/About-the-Guard/How-We-Began/">oldest defense force in the nation</a>, formed in 1636 as three militia regiments in the Massachusetts Bay Colony armed to defend against the Pequot Indians. </p>
<p>The actual term “National Guard” was first used in 1824 for <a href="http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Gilbert_du_Motier,_Marquis_de_La_Fayette">New York state militia units</a> who wished to honor the Marquis de Lafayette and his French National Guard. The title was officially adopted in 1903 and describes the force which, unusually, falls under both federal and state control. </p>
<p>The National Guard – both Army and Air – is the only military force that is shared by the states and the federal government, and both <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10">the president</a> and <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/32">state governors</a> can order their deployment. As “commander in chief” of their states, governors may send their state National Guard to respond to natural disasters – floods, fires or earthquakes – but also emergencies such as the 1999 <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-12/01/089r-120199-idx.html">rioting during the Seattle World Trade Organization meeting</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.usconstitution.net/xconst_A1Sec8.html">U.S. Constitution’s “militia clause”</a> authorizes the use of the National Guard by the federal government to “execute the laws of the Union, suppress insurrections and repel invasions.” It was this authority that allowed governors to answer President George W. Bush’s call for Guard assistance in airports immediately after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213639/original/file-20180406-5584-1s8rycq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213639/original/file-20180406-5584-1s8rycq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213639/original/file-20180406-5584-1s8rycq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213639/original/file-20180406-5584-1s8rycq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213639/original/file-20180406-5584-1s8rycq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213639/original/file-20180406-5584-1s8rycq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213639/original/file-20180406-5584-1s8rycq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">National Guardsmen were sent to maintain order at Little Rock’s Central High School, after federal Judge Ronald N. Davies ordered the school integrated in 1958.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Associated Press</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are national guards in every state plus Puerto Rico, the District of Columbia, Guam and the Virgin Islands. Each of the 54 organizations is headed by an Adjutant General, who reports to the governor of the state or Territory. A four-star general heads the National Guard Bureau, and has been a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff since 2012. </p>
<p>The majority of the Guard’s <a href="https://www.dmdc.osd.mil/appj/dwp/dwp_reports.jsp">435,000 members</a> have civilian jobs elsewhere. Their duties are augmented by an <a href="http://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/dictionary.pdf">Active Guard and Reserve</a> – a full-time National Guardsman who keeps the Guard and Reserve running full time. </p>
<p>But there are limits – laid out in the aftermath of Civil War – that restrict the use of federal military personnel domestically. The <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1251/MR1251.AppD.pdf">Posse Comitatus Act</a> was signed in 1878; it effectively removed federal troops from occupying the South. </p>
<p>Grumbling has already begun that Trump’s plan to deploy the Guard to the border violates the Posse Comitatus Act, since the act restricts federal military support of domestic law enforcement. Yet <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/04/05/history-troop-deployments-mexico-us-border/491317002/">earlier presidents</a>, including both Barack Obama and both Presidents Bush, sent the Guard to the U.S.-Mexico border to help with security. </p>
<p>There’s a significant exception in the legal framework that covers the Guard that can be used in this situation: At the suggestion of the president, governors could deploy their Guardsmen to the border as long as they remained under state, not federal, jurisdiction. The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/04/05/599895184/why-president-trump-cant-directly-order-national-guard-troops-to-u-s-mexico-bord">legal debates</a> have just begun.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct the person to whom each adjutant general reports. It is the governor of the state or territory.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Tilney Burke is a non-resident fellow at the Modern War Institute at West Point. </span></em></p>President Trump proposes to send the National Guard to protect the southern US border. Instead of searching for your old civics textbook, here’s a pocket history of the soldiers in the spotlight.Frances Tilney Burke, PhD student, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.