tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/canada-2167-48203/articlesCanada 2167 – The Conversation2017-07-06T23:04:26Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793282017-07-06T23:04:26Z2017-07-06T23:04:26ZBugging out: How we’ll feed ourselves in 2167<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177219/original/file-20170706-15136-vuj3v0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3522%2C2239&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Future food will shift to alternative proteins such as insects, like this 3D-printed biscuit made of insect flour by designer Penelope Kupfer.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cpimages.com/fotoweb/cpimages_details.pop.fwx?position=46&archiveType=ImageFolder&sorting=ModifiedTimeAsc&search=insects%20and%20food&fileId=7ED4E565C8CEED2778801C7E3A1D5E69FE75CC55B658603987FEF24F300B62227BF497D18515FAB7978750CE214B0837D1853405FB9357B8BCCED882E87BBD23892F6726051715C27ED08F59870C2F70E297922C28FCC5CFEB24C714341D0405BC2F5D429C9804688E1648DCD4C9C1D3DDB07203204A6102A99B305B9AB6C27167AA244CA5A6B65F">(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: 2017 marks the sesquicentennial of Confederation. While the anniversary is a chance to reflect on the past, The Conversation Canada asked some of our academic authors to look down the road a further 150 years — or “Canada +150”. Evan Fraser, director of the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph, considers how we will feed ourselves in the future.</em></p>
<p>Agriculture and food systems will be as unrecognizable to Canadians 150 years from now as modern farming would be to people in 1867, when it was small-scale, depended on draft animals and extremely local. Emerging trends point to changes that will likely reshape what we eat and how we produce it.</p>
<p>Radical shifts in climate, economics and technology will transform our major food sources over the next 150 years, research suggests.</p>
<p>I have studied global food security for years, and currently focus on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raSHAqV8K9c">how we can sustainably feed the growing population</a> that is expected to reach 9.5 billion by mid-century in the face of rapid climate and economic change. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177232/original/file-20170706-18401-szwdzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177232/original/file-20170706-18401-szwdzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177232/original/file-20170706-18401-szwdzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177232/original/file-20170706-18401-szwdzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177232/original/file-20170706-18401-szwdzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177232/original/file-20170706-18401-szwdzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177232/original/file-20170706-18401-szwdzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau implemented a carbon-pricing policy in 2016 that he outlined as a candidate in Vancouver in this 2015 file photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cpimages.com/fotoweb/cpimages_details.pop.fwx?position=32&archiveType=ImageFolder&sorting=ModifiedTimeAsc&search=trudeau%20and%20carbon&fileId=7ED4E565C8CEED2778801C7E3A1D5E69FE75CC55B6586039936B78A06A05F31BEDF27D54EAFBED8A62860A3579DC02FB1D14357338279CE1DCDFEDE59D4E1E9EE29633DD8DA268841448B8F00A8E447DA1A3B4A325B4256A37D02DF342D22C2F2FFB013BB369B12484DB636B3649DDC61AD6084BD58467153B71A1E169C34AF0">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2016, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau proposed that Canada would create a national <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-trudeau-climate-change-1.3788825">carbon pricing scheme</a> to pay for the effect of our economy and our lifestyles on the environment. This would push food prices higher because <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/one-third-of-our-greenhouse-gas-emissions-come-from-agriculture-1.11708">agriculture contributes about one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. </p>
<p>The effect of carbon pricing is likely to disproportionately affect livestock producers — in particular <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-carbon-tax-on-meat/">beef</a>, which requires significant energy, feed and water. </p>
<p>In 150 years, therefore, it is likely that we will be eating far less livestock and will instead be consuming a range of alternative proteins. </p>
<h2>New food: Algae, fungus, insect protein</h2>
<p>The carbon price and more expensive protein might hurt consumers’ bank accounts in the short term. In the longer term, however, these forces will create new market opportunities for low-energy food products. As a result, food scientists across Canada will explore <a href="http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/fraser-and-charlebois-moving-beyond-meat-the-next-sushi-revolution">low-energy protein supplies</a> such as plants, fungi, algae and insects. </p>
<p>Although each of these sources of protein is relatively unknown to general consumers today, I expect an explosion of <a href="http://business.financialpost.com/news/agriculture/the-end-of-meat-economics-the-environment-and-changing-tastes-have-top-protein-feeling-the-heat">novel protein products</a> to enter the market within a generation. </p>
<p>Initially, we will likely see plant-based proteins mixed with livestock proteins to reduce the overall carbon footprint of our diets. But as consumers become used to these new ingredients, they will became a regular part of the Canadian diet. </p>
<p>Edible insects, algae-based protein drinks and lab-grown “meat” will all become common. For example, “<a href="https://www.impossiblefoods.com/burger/">the Impossible Burger</a>” that is made with no beef but tastes like a beef burger is making inroads into restaurants across North America.</p>
<h2>Vertical farming, indoor farming local</h2>
<p>Breakthroughs in the early 2000s in LED light technology linked with a better understanding of how different wavelengths of light affect plant growth are allowing us to develop new ways to produce food indoors. These innovations will almost certainly give rise to indoor growing facilities that range in scale from micro “farms” that fit into <a href="http://www.growtainers.com/">shipping containers</a> to multi-storey <a href="http://www.truleaf.ca/about/">vertical farms</a>. </p>
<p>By 2167, it’s likely that these sorts of facilities will be common across the country. The ability to produce food indoors using LED lights will mean that most Canadian communities will become much more self-sufficient in fruits and vegetables.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176964/original/file-20170705-21675-y4ivfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=179%2C37%2C3391%2C2463&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176964/original/file-20170705-21675-y4ivfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176964/original/file-20170705-21675-y4ivfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176964/original/file-20170705-21675-y4ivfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176964/original/file-20170705-21675-y4ivfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176964/original/file-20170705-21675-y4ivfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176964/original/file-20170705-21675-y4ivfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Personal insect farms such as this mealworm hive by Livin Farms’ Katharina Unger, left, and Julia Kaisinger, will one day be commonplace in homes as a range of alternative proteins gain popularity as food.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cpimages.com/fotoweb/cpimages_details.pop.fwx?position=1&archiveType=ImageFolder&sorting=ModifiedTimeAsc&search=insect%20and%20food&fileId=7ED4E565C8CEED27AEA6EAB315B987A8EB1B023AB80A6779EEECB0F082709652BF4B180AE6F446F48ACB7DB1B8CDE7E37BF497D18515FAB7978750CE214B0837D1853405FB9357B8D2D38EA4AF756B35CC5B17B2477A7CFF2B3028297ECC5D97E297922C28FCC5CFEB24C714341D0405666AFFF98B39F52DD9284DDDB2EE2245122177278DE2E1DD200BFBFA08376428F96A498E18F0B811">(AP Photo/Kelvin Chan)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While most Canadians enjoy access to safe and secure food, there are major problems in our food system that cannot be addressed by single governmental ministries. For instance, First Nations communities in Canada’s north have rates of food insecurity normally associated with the Global South. To address this, Canada’s federal government launched a <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/agriculture-minister-food-policy-survey-1.4139688">National Food Policy</a> in the spring. </p>
<p>Also this year, Ottawa announced funding to create a series of <a href="http://www.itworldcanada.com/article/ottawa-unveils-plans-for-innovation-supercluster-spending-announced-in-budget/393437">“innovation super-clusters,”</a> one of which is expected to focus on agriculture and food. The aim is to develop a partnership between industry, government and academia for an innovation hub to catalyze a “digital agri-food revolution” — a Silicon Valley for food. </p>
<p>The anticipated long-term impact of these two initiatives is to ensure that Canada becomes a key player in global food exports, and that our own food system provides safe, sustainable and nutritious food for all Canadians. </p>
<h2>Global and local food systems</h2>
<p>Our agri-food export sectors — already very strong — will grow, creating jobs and wealth. The national food policy, in combination with new technologies that allow us to produce food indoors, will invigorate local food systems. </p>
<p>So Canadians will support local farms even as much of the agri-food industry develops stronger export markets. </p>
<p>These factors will lead to local food networks around major Canadian communities, and mainstream food production that is capital-intensive and export-oriented. </p>
<p>These developments, coupled with the fact we enjoy abundant land and fresh water, have good infrastructure and may benefit from climate change due to a longer growing season (unlike the mid-latitude parts of the planet that will lose productivity), point to a likely future: Canada will become even more important for global food production over the next 150 years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evan Fraser receives funding from SSHRC, NSERC, Pierre Elliot Trudeau Foundation, Canada First Research Excellence Fund, Canada Research Chair Program, and the Arrell Family Foundation.
Evan Fraser is on the board of the Maple Leaf Centre for Action on Food Security, a Fellow of the Royal Canadian Geographic Society, and a Member of the Royal Society of Canada's College of New Scholars. </span></em></p>Climate change, insects and urban farm towers are a few things that will change how and what we eat in the future.Evan Fraser, Director of the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph; Professor; Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Global Food Security, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/801842017-07-01T02:54:19Z2017-07-01T02:54:19ZCanada in 150 years: People power will shake up society<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176479/original/file-20170630-9576-oubox9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C135%2C3775%2C2615&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The future of citizenship is more distributed, interactive and local than dealing with central government through new technology. That may be sad news for those who wish to interact with the likes of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in virtual reality if not in person.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cpimages.com/fotoweb/cpimages_details.pop.fwx?position=93&archiveType=ImageFolder&sorting=ModifiedTimeAsc&search=trudeau%20and%20technology&fileId=7ED4E565C8CEED27AEA6EAB315B987A8EB1B023AB80A6779EEECB0F082709652BF4B180AE6F446F48ACB7DB1B8CDE7E37BF497D18515FAB7C57815DF9C7E71E1737892DD5BA3F690925AF21DC8828E055D9B15C804EE2539B910651727E2C0824659CEF5EB788C838F5F328CE42AFA780F6B4F506D717E148A6BC204AFB38682B06DD3E64BFE1C61602AC54D7513C1F5">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: 2017 marks the sesquicentennial of Confederation. While the anniversary is a chance to reflect on the past, The Conversation Canada asked some of our academic authors to look down the road a further 150 years — or “Canada +150”. Curtis McCord, who researches information systems, predicts technology will further expand our ability to understand politics and engage in political action.</em></p>
<p>Nothing is certain in the next 150 years — not even the future of our democracy. Coming to grips with the tragedies of a colonial past and uncertainties of our present is a challenge for many of us. </p>
<p>Rather than wondering what will be, we should wonder what could be: Our political horizons will be set by hard work and co-operation, not a track guaranteed by any technology or imagined destiny. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, cultural change sparked by social movements and aided by technology can empower citizens. They can shape their country’s destiny as part of daily life, rather than at a voting booth once every few years.</p>
<p>Much of our knowledge, practices and trades are changing with technology and we must also adapt. This applies in our personal, professional and public lives as we express our citizenship. I have dedicated the last three years to researching how technology shapes our citizenship. </p>
<p>I believe we ought to strive for a country in which citizens are empowered and autonomous, and where our government is more democratic and responsive to our needs. Advances in artificial intelligence, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/technology/tech-news/we-live-inside-the-machine-now-the-arrival-of-ubiquitous-computing/article9834737/?page=all">ubiquitous computing</a> and data-gathering will accompany these developments, but effective democracy requires deeper cultural change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176477/original/file-20170630-8214-108i3hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C1183%2C1095&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176477/original/file-20170630-8214-108i3hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176477/original/file-20170630-8214-108i3hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176477/original/file-20170630-8214-108i3hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176477/original/file-20170630-8214-108i3hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176477/original/file-20170630-8214-108i3hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176477/original/file-20170630-8214-108i3hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Technology and societal change will transform the nature of citizenship and government in Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/vector-leaf-maple-electronic-illustration-eps-84166651">(Shutterstock)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most people engage in citizenship through acts such as voting, obtaining and using passports, and interacting with government services. This transactional approach puts citizenship in the background of our social and work lives. </p>
<p>The most tangible advances in Canadian democracy will not come from applying new technologies to existing models. They will come by re-evaluating how we use technology to relate to the shared project of governance. This means understanding that the ways in which technology mediates our citizenship often sets the limits of what kinds of citizenship we have. </p>
<p>Digitization of services — sometimes called eGovernment or digital government — follows the same kinds of trends as corporate information systems. They make our relationship with our government one of client and service-provider. The result is a trade-off: eGovernment attempts to do justice to the financial responsibilities of the state, but does not foster a sense of shared ownership included in a deeper understanding of democratic citizenship. </p>
<h2>Reinventing citizenship</h2>
<p>Expressions of citizenship go beyond delegating responsibility to politicians. Canadians take causes into their own hands, ranging from the <a href="https://blacklivesmatter.ca/">redressing of systemic injustices</a>, <a href="https://www.cycleto.ca/">advocating for urban cyclists</a> to <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/witness/2017/06/broadband-bruce-fighting-canada-digital-divide-170614123247706.html">building community internet infrastructure for under-served communities</a>. We are living through a shift towards increasingly networked and citizen-led expressions of participation. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176480/original/file-20170630-8514-1kiabqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176480/original/file-20170630-8514-1kiabqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176480/original/file-20170630-8514-1kiabqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176480/original/file-20170630-8514-1kiabqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176480/original/file-20170630-8514-1kiabqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176480/original/file-20170630-8514-1kiabqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176480/original/file-20170630-8514-1kiabqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Black Lives Matter movement is one example of how people are increasingly expressing and exercising their citizenship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cpimages.com/fotoweb/cpimages_details.pop.fwx?position=12&archiveType=ImageFolder&sorting=ModifiedTimeAsc&search=black%20and%20lives%20and%20matter%20and%20toronto%20and%20(FQYFD%20contains(20160630~~21000101))&fileId=7ED4E565C8CEED27AEA6EAB315B987A8EB1B023AB80A6779EEECB0F082709652BF4B180AE6F446F48ACB7DB1B8CDE7E37BF497D18515FAB7C57815DF9C7E71E1737892DD5BA3F690A3D27F4B84A88068193EE6609EB5B892B910651727E2C0824659CEF5EB788C838F5F328CE42AFA780F6B4F506D717E148A6BC204AFB38682B06DD3E64BFE1C61602AC54D7513C1F5">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Mark Blinch)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We must redesign state institutions to accommodate these efforts and make the relationship between citizens and governments more nuanced, immediate, and fair. The seeds of change exist already. They are demonstrated in the growth of policy and practice to allow greater citizen participation and scrutiny — open government. </p>
<p>The goals of open government are often realized through online public consultations. They enable citizens to participate in decisions outside of election season, or in more local, in-person processes such as town halls. Online consultations are becoming a normal part of Canadian democracy. They are employed by all levels of government, on issues that range from budget priorities to assessing new infrastructure needs, and even such high level policy decisions as <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/nafta-renegotiations-trump-canada/article33715250/">renegotiating NAFTA</a>.</p>
<p>Developing a culture of participating in institutions will become more necessary. Increasing public engagement will offer people a more secure place in our democracy, a role in making agendas and policy decisions. </p>
<h2>Government as infrastructure</h2>
<p>We should see these online forums as public infrastructure — resources shared in common. Participation in democratic institutions increases citizens’ knowledge and capabilities, and provides a stage for the public to connect around issues that affect them. The forums also serve as a catalyst for greater coverage in media and the public consciousness. </p>
<p>Our democratic institutions are often too focused on transactions between the state and individuals. Instead, we should encourage the <a href="http://firstmonday.org/article/view/1289/1209">“democracy of groups”</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Public_and_its_Problems">enable smaller-scale groups or “publics” that share common goals</a>.</p>
<p>Visibility on the public stage can help to connect disparate groups, and legitimize and amplify marginalized voices that too often go unheard. Greater confidence in such platforms will give citizens access to knowledgeable public servants (or responsive artificial intelligence). These resources can encourage citizens to follow standards of evidence and argumentation, and add legitimacy to their positions.</p>
<p>Embracing these possibilities could bolster the growing practice of <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/diy-citizenship">“DIY citizenship</a>,” and expand our understanding of politics and political action. Citizens across the country (and the world) are already showing us the way.</p>
<p>Creating a more autonomous and decentralized type of governance does not mean that the state should weaken its own capacities for action. State institutions are perhaps the most readily available venue for supporting citizens, as they are meant to be held in common for all. </p>
<h2>Cooperative Canada</h2>
<p>Shifts in climate, food security and the continuing accumulation of wealth will force us to re-evaluate political and economic relations that govern our states and societies. Co-operation with those around us will be the only option. Matters of everyday life will be more tangible for citizens, reliant on community for their livelihood and leisure. They will surely tire of the alienating economic and cultural practices of today.</p>
<p>Channelling the current momentum of citizens, we should now begin laying the groundwork for a new kind of state and society. It should prioritize responsive government, fair institutions, and empowering citizens in their public lives.</p>
<p>To re-imagine the relationship between citizens and government, some have proposed a <a href="http://peerproduction.net/issues/issue-7-policies-for-the-commons/peer-reviewed-papers/towards-a-new-reconfiguration-among-the-state-civil-society-and-the-market/">“partner state approach”</a>. Rather than the representative and service-providing model of government we know today, a partner state actively encourages and supports autonomous action by citizens. </p>
<p>Governments would be stewards of infrastructure and other public goods. They would provide resources for citizens to interact and cooperate with each other.</p>
<p>In this future, Canadians will be not only more aware of the politics of their everyday lives. They will be able and empowered to take their causes public and work with their fellows to decide, make, and enact their societies together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80184/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Curtis McCord does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The disruptive impact of intelligent machines and new social movements will force us to remake citizenship into a more personal pursuit over the next 150 years.Curtis McCord, Doctoral Student in Information Systems, Values in Design, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/802542017-06-29T23:52:45Z2017-06-29T23:52:45ZFuture jobs: How we’ll earn a living 150 years from now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176156/original/file-20170629-1904-1cpua7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will AI and robotics erode or enhance the labour market for humans? </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: Canada Day 2017 marks the sesquicentennial of Confederation. While the anniversary is a chance to reflect on the past, The Conversation Canada asked some of our academic authors to look down the road a further 150 years — or “Canada +150”. Sunil Johal considers how we’ll be earning our keep in 2167.</em></p>
<p>Canadians have seen the world of work rapidly reshape itself around them in the past 30 years. Globalization, technological change, declining unionization rates and <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/books/mol_changing_workplace_report_eng_2_0.pdf">new business strategies</a> are among the forces that have combined to create a labour market characterized by <a href="http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/ltr/2017/ch3.html#c3-11">stagnant wages</a> and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/wages-cibc-job-quality-1.3872389">eroding job quality</a>.</p>
<p>Will technological advances in areas like Artificial Intelligence and robotics exacerbate these conditions or provide pathways to more equitable distribution of profits throughout the economy in the decades to come? How will unions rethink their role in a de-industrialized economy with gig workers spread across the globe? How can workers ensure they’re getting a fair share of the economic pie?</p>
<p>Answering these questions over a five-year time frame is challenging enough. Anticipating what the world of work will look like in 150 years is orders of magnitude harder.</p>
<p>But with the supreme confidence that comes with knowing nobody will be able to prove me wrong for a very long time, I would like to propose five defining characteristics of Canadian jobs in 2167:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>We won’t make things anymore – we’ll all be in the service industry. The proportion of Canadians who work in goods-producing sectors has been in a steady state of decline for decades – down from <a href="http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=2820008&&pattern=&stByVal=1&p1=1&p2=37&tabMode=dataTable&csid=">35 per cent in 1976 to 21 per cent by 2016</a>. Traditional stalwarts of the economy like farming, oil and gas, mining and manufacturing will be all but completely automated over the course of the next century. By 2167, we can expect fewer than one per cent of Canadians to work in these areas, and those who do will be managing complex automated systems which perform the day to day work.</p></li>
<li><p>Professions with a highly social element will continue to be prevalent. Whether as nurses, home-care workers, nannies, teachers or therapists, Canadians will still be able to find work in areas that have a high human-touch element. Technology will soon be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media-network/2016/may/09/robots-social-health-care-elderly-children">capable of replacing many of these jobs</a>, but as social animals we will choose to prefer a person teaching young people or taking care of elderly parents. However, technology will continue to play an increasingly important role complementing those who work with people in the caring professions.</p></li>
<li><p>The vast majority of Canadians will not have an employer. They’ll be engaged in virtual forms of work routed through technological platforms and peer-to-peer channels, with no regard for geographical borders. Companies or individuals will send out micro-task requests that anyone in the world will be able to bid upon and execute instantaneously. Trust and performance ratings carried from task to task will grant high-performers the edge when it comes to competing against tens of thousands of others.</p></li>
<li><p>Commuting to work will be a relic of a bygone age. Virtual reality will enable those few Canadians who do have a consistent place of employment to do their work from their own home or wherever else happens to be convenient.</p></li>
<li><p>The supports that workers will have in 2167 will look completely different than today’s social architecture. Instead of large, cumbersome programs like employment insurance delivered through bureaucracies, workers will have immediate, digital access to services that they <a href="https://mowatcentre.ca/what-if-you-could-take-it-with-you/">carry with them</a> throughout their lives. Radical changes to taxation laws (think <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-robot-tax-brighter-future-2017-3">robot taxes</a> and corporate taxes focused on <a href="https://mowatcentre.ca/corporate-tax-reform/">extraordinary profits</a>) at the national and international level generate sufficient revenue to fund social programs like a guaranteed annual income and life-long skills training allowances.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>But, this is just one plausible future scenario. Another plausible future could see a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEJnMQG9ev8">Mad Max style</a> descent into madness, with climate migrants battling over dwindling natural resources in a bleak hellscape. Yet another could see the advent of wide-scale Dickensian virtual factories, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/dec/03/amazon-mechanical-turk-workers-protest-jeff-bezos">paying pennies per task to a desperate underclass</a>.</p>
<p>How can we shape the type of future we want to see? Designing regulatory frameworks that promote competition, protect the public interest and pay workers fair wages is the defining challenge of the 21st century digital economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176139/original/file-20170628-32680-afa4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176139/original/file-20170628-32680-afa4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176139/original/file-20170628-32680-afa4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176139/original/file-20170628-32680-afa4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176139/original/file-20170628-32680-afa4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176139/original/file-20170628-32680-afa4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176139/original/file-20170628-32680-afa4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A nurse cares for a swine flu patient in Ukraine during an outbreak in 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Sergei Grits)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Success will hinge on concerted action by governments across the world. Governments that are currently struggling to come to grips with the rise of dominant digital platforms that don’t need to abide by the rules of any particular nation and have a knack for bending regulatory and tax frameworks to suit their preferences. Digital firms will only get more pervasive in the future, and the rise of super-monopolies that can dictate terms to suppliers and crowd out competitors is a serious threat to both consumer and worker interests.</p>
<p>Economic systems that privilege corporate interests are increasingly less likely to produce positive knock-on effects for workers where those workers are faceless commodities in another part of the world. When <a href="http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf">half of all workers could find their jobs automated</a> by the middle of this century, the challenges of finding space at the table for workers gets more challenging still.</p>
<p>Canadians in 2167 will be engaged in many new forms of work we can’t even imagine today. But, starting today we can lay the groundwork for the fair treatment of workers in a digital economy that promises to unlock huge productivity and quality of life improvements. Our challenge is to ensure those gains are distributed equitably throughout society and not the spoils of a winner-take-all economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80254/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sunil Johal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What will Canadians do to earn their keep in 150 years? We won’t manufacture goods, but jobs with the “human” touch, like nursing, will still be important.Sunil Johal, Policy Director, The Mowat Centre, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/794022017-06-28T23:36:48Z2017-06-28T23:36:48ZHumans in 2167: Internet implants and no sleep<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174103/original/file-20170615-27639-1nmq2vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1020&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canada in 2167 could see genetically engineered humans living alongside sentient machines in cities radically altered by ecological change.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/future-city-on-coast3d-render-577560388">(Shutterstock)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: Canada Day 2017 marks the sesquicentennial of Confederation. While the anniversary is a chance to reflect on the past, The Conversation Canada asked some of our academic authors to look down the road a further 150 years — or “Canada +150”. What will our world be like in 2167? Astronomer and astrophysicist Bryan Gaensler looks at how the science of tomorrow may be different from today’s science fiction.</em></p>
<p>We live in a world shaped by technology, and another 150 years of advancement and discovery will transform it even further. Life in the year 2167 will be amazing, exciting, convenient — and yet still recognizable to someone from 2017.</p>
<p>Any specific prediction about what the 22nd century will look like will almost certainly be wrong. Nevertheless, breaking developments in science and fiction may point the way to what the future might hold.</p>
<p>It is inevitable that we will experiment on ourselves. The wealthy will routinely edit their genes and <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/brainwaves/are-we-too-close-to-making-gattaca-a-reality/">design their babies</a>. Rich or poor, almost <a href="http://peterfhamilton.wikia.com/wiki/Cybersphere">everyone will be implanted with internet chips</a>, so that with a flutter of an eyelid we can always be online. And having <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/68333.Beggars_in_Spain">removed the need for sleep</a>, we will be far more productive and have far more time for leisure.</p>
<h2>More human</h2>
<p>We will certainly live longer than we do now, and remain largely healthy until we reach the end. But earlier promises of <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/45248.Misspent_Youth">rejuvenation</a> and <a href="https://www.publishersweekly.com/978-0-312-93199-5">immortality</a> will have never come to fruition. And those <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2268011/Kim-Suozzi-23-head-cryogenically-frozen-reborn-cure-brain-cancer-found.html">cryogenically frozen heads</a>? They’ll still be in storage.</p>
<p>More audacious experiments will begin to change the very definition of consciousness: Computers will have achieved sentience, and many (but not all) of us will accept that <a href="http://theconversation.com/robot-rights-at-what-point-should-an-intelligent-machine-be-considered-a-person-72410">machines have the same rights as human beings</a>. Some people will even have begun heading in the opposite direction, <a href="http://www.sfreviews.net/permutcity.html">uploading their consciousness into software</a>, freeing themselves of the limitations of a decaying human body.</p>
<p>Nuclear fusion or other new power sources will mean <a href="http://backtothefuture.wikia.com/wiki/Mr._Fusion">limitless, cheap energy</a>. As a result, <a href="http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/FlyingCar">flying cars</a> will finally be a reality. </p>
<h2>No miracles</h2>
<p>However, Canada at 300 will not be a land of miracles. Our lives will be set against a backdrop of <a href="http://o.canada.com/news/toronto-will-feel-like-north-miami-by-2100-climate-change-report">permanent climate change</a> — the damage will already be done. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/27/books/review-american-war-omar-el-akkad.html">Wars will have been fought</a>, <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6597651-the-windup-girl">governments will have fallen</a>, and the gap between rich and poor will have increased dramatically. But in the big cities of North America reclaimed by the water, the stark reality is that people will adapt and <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/kim-stanley-robinsons-latest-novel-imagines-life-in-an-underwater-new-york">life will go on</a>.</p>
<p>Looking outward, the staggering number of stars in our Milky Way galaxy suggests that we will have made radio contact with other intelligent life — and will be <a href="http://www.npr.org/2014/11/13/363123510/three-body-problem-asks-a-classic-sci-fi-question-in-chinese">wrestling with the consequences</a>. Indeed we may have begun the journey to the stars ourselves, using <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/jul/08/aurora-kim-stanley-robinson-review-science-fiction">slow, cumbersome arks that take centuries</a> to make the trip.</p>
<h2>Reality check</h2>
<p>As futuristic as all of this sounds, the utopian Star-Trek style future that many of us hope for will still be a work of fiction. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDFI87zn9t0">Teleportation</a> will be theoretically possible, but utterly impractical. And whether by <a href="https://www.wired.com/2015/05/nasa-warp-drive-yeah-still-poppycock/">warp drive</a> or <a href="http://stargate.wikia.com/wiki/Stargate_SG-1">worm holes</a>, we will not be zipping around the galaxy at speeds faster than light. We will not have yet reached <a href="https://www.space.com/33624-trekonomics-star-trek-book-no-money-universe.html">a post-scarcity society</a>, where <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_H5uPyU2oKE">money no longer exists</a>.</p>
<p>And finally, what about the most exalted of science-fiction dreams, that of <a href="http://www.sparknotes.com/mindhut/2013/06/20/primer-understanding-the-most-complicated-sci-fi-movie-ever-made">time travel</a>? Well, there’s a reason why any story about time travel is <a href="http://www.backtothefuture.com/movies/backtothefuture1">full of paradoxes</a>: because it’s sadly something that (at least in my opinion) will never happen in the real world.</p>
<p>Even in the year 2167, there will only be one way to travel through time: year by year, together, into the unknown future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bryan Gaensler receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and from the Canada Research Chairs Program. He reads far too much science fiction.</span></em></p>By 2167, genetically designed, digitally enhanced humans with Internet-connected brains will live with intelligent machines in a transformed environment and maybe even among the stars.Bryan Gaensler, Director, Dunlap Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793942017-06-27T22:42:28Z2017-06-27T22:42:28ZSpace farms will feed astronauts and earthlings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174872/original/file-20170621-8977-17twdrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Matt Damon as astronaut and exobotanist Mark Watney in the film The Martian grows crops on Mars.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://s3.foxmovies.com/foxmovies/production/films/104/images/gallery/martian-gallery5-gallery-image.jpg">(20th Century Fox/Handout)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: Canada Day 2017 marks the sesquicentennial of Confederation. While the anniversary is a chance to reflect on the past, The Conversation Canada asked some of our academic authors to look down the road a further 150 years - or “Canada +150.” What will our world and other worlds be like in 2167? Scientist Michael Dixon suggests there will be a distinctly Canadian advantage when it comes to growing crops on Mars.</em></p>
<p>Canadian researchers are leading an effort to grow crops in space, paving the way for humanity to live on other worlds and push the frontiers on Earth.</p>
<p>Food is the main obstacle to long-term space exploration. It limits how far away from Earth we can travel and how long we can stay in space.</p>
<p>We can stock enough <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZx0RIV0wss">food for inhabitants of the International Space Station</a> or even for <a href="https://history.nasa.gov/SP-368/s6ch1.htm">travel to the moon and back</a>. But if we are to travel to Mars and support long-term exploration missions, we need bio-regenerative, self-sustaining food production systems. Or, in simpler terms, space farms.</p>
<p>Farming in space is probably one of the biggest challenges we will have to overcome if we are ever going to spend extended periods on the red planet within the next 150 years. But it’s a challenge Canadians can definitely lead in tackling. </p>
<p>Although <a href="http://www.mars-one.com/news/press-releases/the-mars-100-mars-one-announces-round-three-astronaut-candidates">people have signed up to be a part of the first human settlement on Mars</a>, our <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/content/journey-to-mars-overview">next home planet</a> is more likely to be one with fewer environmental challenges. </p>
<h2>Severe Mars environment resembles Northern Canada</h2>
<p>Mars has a miserable climate. Its average temperature is below -60°C, its atmospheric pressure is less than one per cent of Earth’s and made up largely of carbon dioxide, and it can be rather windy and dusty for long periods. There are also the dangers of radiation exposure, and without a molten core like ours on Earth — meaning virtually no magnetic field — the planet’s environment would have to be significantly altered if we were to ever live there. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174875/original/file-20170621-30181-8ofilc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174875/original/file-20170621-30181-8ofilc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174875/original/file-20170621-30181-8ofilc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174875/original/file-20170621-30181-8ofilc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174875/original/file-20170621-30181-8ofilc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174875/original/file-20170621-30181-8ofilc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174875/original/file-20170621-30181-8ofilc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the film The Martian, Matt Damon portrays a stranded exobotanist who builds a controlled environment to successfully grow food on Mars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://s3.foxmovies.com/foxmovies/production/films/104/images/gallery/martian-gallery13-gallery-image.jpg">(20th Century Fox/Handout)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, that’s not to say we won’t be hanging out on the red planet. When Canada turns 300, we will have hundreds of space explorers spending decades searching for life on Mars. I say decades because a round trip takes two-and-a-half years, so when we do go, we will want to make it worth our while. This means setting up enclosed housing, research facilities and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/farming-in-martian-gardens">space farms</a>. This is where controlled environment systems will come in. </p>
<p>Canada is among the world’s leaders in biological life support research and technology development. This is because when it comes to farming, the severe conditions of space are similar to those in the northern parts of our country. Trying to grow a tomato on Mars is much like trying to grow a tomato in a snowbank: You can’t without creating a controlled environment.</p>
<h2>Mars needs vegetarians</h2>
<p>At the <a href="http://arrellfoodinstitute.ca/feeding-the-mission-to-mars-2/">University of Guelph, we are moving toward growing crops in space</a> with the research we are conducting on controlled environment systems. Our ongoing work in this area has revealed that plants can function under some strange environmental conditions such as very low atmospheric pressures and much less oxygen than on Earth. This means we don’t need enclosed structures that precisely replicate Earth’s atmosphere for plant-based life support systems on Mars.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174879/original/file-20170621-30165-1k51cn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174879/original/file-20170621-30165-1k51cn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174879/original/file-20170621-30165-1k51cn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174879/original/file-20170621-30165-1k51cn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174879/original/file-20170621-30165-1k51cn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174879/original/file-20170621-30165-1k51cn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174879/original/file-20170621-30165-1k51cn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Martian base would include inflatable structures to grow crops.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 150 years, we will grow food on Mars in inflatable structures. Inside, everything will be designed to ensure the highest crop yield. The intensity of light — and even its colour or spectrum — will be tailored for each individual crop. Air flow and pressure, temperature, nutrients, carbon dioxide levels and humidity will be strictly controlled to create the ideal atmosphere in which plants can thrive. </p>
<p>We will grow a conventional array of crops associated with a balanced and nourishing vegetarian diet. Most of the vitamins and minerals we need are available in plants and we will get our protein from soybeans and similar crops. </p>
<p>This huge variety of plants, or “candidate crops”, will be neatly packed or layered into a small space — the opposite of the expansive Canadian prairies. These compact crops will be produced using limited amounts of water and zero waste, because away from Earth, you can’t afford to throw anything away. We must learn to recycle everything, as it will be a matter of life and death — extreme agriculture at its most challenging. </p>
<h2>Benefits at home on Earth</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.ces.uoguelph.ca">work we are doing at Guelph</a> is designed not only for space, but for Canadians and others worldwide who may live in places where food security is a problem and extreme agriculture is the only way to address it.</p>
<p>Today, we spend millions of dollars flying perishable food to Northern Canada, such as buying strawberries from Mexico for sale in Yellowknife. This doesn’t make sense. </p>
<p>Sustaining our presence in the North depends on food production in the same way that sustaining our presence on Mars will. By creating these systems, we will be able to inhabit challenging parts of Canada, such as the North, and other parts of the world, such as the deserts of the Middle East.</p>
<p>Space exploration generates invaluable technology on all fronts. For food production, space exploration will enable us to learn how to grow crops almost anywhere and with as little impact on the environment as possible. </p>
<p>By the time Canada’s 300th birthday rolls around, we will have overcome the challenge of living on Mars and the huge advancements we will have made to get there will serve not only space exploration but our own survival here on Earth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79394/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Dixon receives funding from NSERC, OCE, OMAFRA. </span></em></p>We will one day grow food in conditions as extreme as Mars. Developing the controlled environments required will help not only space explorers but also support our own survival here on Earth.Michael Dixon, Professor and Director of the Controlled Environment Systems Research Facility, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/784842017-06-26T22:24:20Z2017-06-26T22:24:20ZEnergy fuels Star Trek economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174257/original/file-20170616-545-1uqpblc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">William Shatner as Star Trek's Captain James T. Kirk is depicted on a commemorative stamp issued by Canada Post in 2016.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Handout/Canada Post</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: Canada Day 2017 marks the sesquicentennial of Confederation. While the anniversary is a chance to reflect on the past, The Conversation Canada asked some of our academic authors to look down the road a further 150 years. For our “Canada +150” series, we want to know what our world will be like in 2167. Economist and innovation guru Joshua Gans looks at the intersection of technology and energy and what that could mean to Canada in the future.</em></p>
<p>Canada is poised to commence an age of abundance that will see its citizens living in a virtual utopia by the country’s tricentennial.</p>
<p>Over the past 150 years, the biggest impact on the economy has clearly come from technology. Predictions that technology would bring with it improved living standards have been staples of long-term economic forecasts. But most of those predictions have been accompanied by a belief that technological progress will decelerate and peter out, raising the question: What comes next?</p>
<p>Karl Marx and Joseph Schumpeter believed that when technological progress reached its limit, something else would replace capitalism. John Maynard Keynes believed that work would diminish and leisure would take over. And in the modern day, Northwestern economist <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-American-Growth-Princeton-ebook/dp/B0131KW67U/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1495899938&sr=8-1&keywords=robert+Gordon">Robert Gordon has carefully documented a case for progress in the next 150 years</a> set to be a mere shadow of the previous 150.</p>
<p>If we are going to get dismal about it, we remove all of the fun. Moreover, I don’t want to pretend to forecast technological progress, otherwise <a href="http://www.digitopoly.org/2014/03/27/can-economists-forecast-technological-progress/">I might end up saying stuff like Paul Krugman did in 1998</a>: “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.” </p>
<h2>New energy</h2>
<p>Instead, let me imagine — without foundation and with a large dose of hope — a future 150 years from now that still has another technological revolution to come. And if I am going to inject a big hit to the economy, that revolution needs to occur in one area: Energy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174258/original/file-20170616-512-pldq6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174258/original/file-20170616-512-pldq6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174258/original/file-20170616-512-pldq6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174258/original/file-20170616-512-pldq6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174258/original/file-20170616-512-pldq6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174258/original/file-20170616-512-pldq6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174258/original/file-20170616-512-pldq6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An energy revolution yet to come would transform the economy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/3d-illustration-cell-energy-cosmic-rays-418327489?src=UeGKPtDFGhhSetP9yu4QYA-3-18">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Everything we have gained in the last 150 years has come because we discovered how to use new sources of energy. We can turn coal, oil, gas, water and nuclear materials into industrial-scale energy. That has powered everything physical (our machines) and intangible (our software). It has led to construction (giving rise to cities, potable water supplies and sanitation), transport (bringing the world together) and weather control. To be sure, we have learned to use our energy better but there is only so much you can pull out of existing natural resources. So, to be optimistic about technology is to believe we will discover a new energy source.</p>
<p>I’ll leave it to others to speculate about what that new source might be, but imagine that it’s plentiful and also clean. And just to make it simple, suppose that energy becomes essentially free and easy to distribute, whether it is through long lasting batteries, fantastic light or something even more grand. </p>
<p>This would solve the basic economic problem of not enough to go around. In the process, most of the things that we consider to be jobs today will make no sense. Here, I quickly fall into the same prediction that other economists have made: Without jobs as we imagine them today, then what?</p>
<h2>More leisure</h2>
<p>For Keynes, the likely scenario was a move towards a minimal amount of work each day and then leisure time. He wondered if people were educated enough to know how to fill their idle time. With the better part of a century of experience, we can confidently say that they worked it out. Let’s face it: There has been no entertainment device as powerful or as sticky as television no matter what other options have presented themselves.</p>
<p>The idea of increased leisure time dominates conclusions <a href="https://www.amazon.com/100-Years-Leading-Economists-Predict-ebook/dp/B00ICXP9GM/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1495899197&sr=8-1&keywords=100+years+economist">in a recent book of famous economists speculating on what the world would look like in 100 years</a>. But in that book, Nobel Laureate Bob Solow noted that there was no evidence that leisure time would increase. For the last five decades there has been an increase in work hours, especially in North America. This is an enduring puzzle if only because casual observation suggests that a lot of people do not like many aspects of their jobs. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174257/original/file-20170616-545-1uqpblc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174257/original/file-20170616-545-1uqpblc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174257/original/file-20170616-545-1uqpblc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174257/original/file-20170616-545-1uqpblc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174257/original/file-20170616-545-1uqpblc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174257/original/file-20170616-545-1uqpblc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174257/original/file-20170616-545-1uqpblc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174257/original/file-20170616-545-1uqpblc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">William Shatner as Star Trek’s Captain Kirk is depicted on a commemorative stamp issued by Canada Post in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Handout/Canada Post</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While I, as an academic, can rejoice in my relative job satisfaction, even hardworking professionals seem to wonder about their work-to-life balance. If we look to the super-rich, there are surprising numbers who do things that are leisure-averse, such as running to be a head of state or ending up in public service. </p>
<p>What does this mean? It means that we economists truly have no idea about what to predict regarding work when the economic problem is relegated to history. Some distract themselves worrying about inequality – that is, that the economic problem may be solved but powerful people prevent it from being widely distributed. </p>
<p>Other economists suggest there will be a shift in demand towards labour-intensive work, such as artisanal products which are valued because they are made by people. </p>
<p>One reliable prediction borne out by history is that unemployment has been surprisingly low relative to technological changes that have occurred. People seem to have always found something to do.</p>
<h2>Star Trek</h2>
<p>If I had to guess, for many people, solving the economic problem on Earth will draw them into space where the challenge of scarcity will reassert itself. Given the current laws of physics, they will do so in the knowledge that they are confining their own descendants to lower living standards rather than the current presumption that people work to make their children better off. In other words, I continue to place weight on a <a href="http://www.digitopoly.org/2013/11/19/that-star-trek-economy-thing/">Star Trek-like economy of the future</a> even if 150 years only takes us to the beginning of the Final Frontier — and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Trekonomics-Economics-Star-Manu-Saadia-ebook/dp/B01E6USVP0/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1495899870&sr=8-1&keywords=trekonomics">I am far from alone in that view</a>.</p>
<p>In reality, there is a good chance there won’t be a solution to the energy problem, allowing living standards to skyrocket. In this scenario, Canada is nevertheless surprisingly well-placed.</p>
<p>Climate change is likely to cause large populations to move north to escape the heat. And despite recent moves away from globalization, it’s entirely plausible that free trade will come about because ideas are all that need to move across borders when Star Trek-like ‘replicator’ on-demand fabrication becomes possible. </p>
<p>If I wanted to bet on providing good economic possibilities for my grandchildren (and in a way, I have), then placing them in Canada is a pretty good one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78484/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Gans receives funding from The Sloan Foundation. </span></em></p>Canada’s economy faces a radical shift as abundant energy and resources could propel the country toward a Star Trek future.Joshua Gans, Professor of Strategic Management, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.