tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/climate-policy-8663/articlesClimate policy – The Conversation2024-03-13T16:20:57Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244552024-03-13T16:20:57Z2024-03-13T16:20:57ZWomen favour climate actions that benefit future generations more than men – new study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579173/original/file-20240301-30-6h6n1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Connecting with the climate risks that could be faced by future generations could influence support for better policies now. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/diverse-hands-join-together-on-wooden-642952270">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The decisions we make now inevitably shape the prospects for generations to come. So tackling a long-term problem like climate change raises an intergenerational moral dilemma: should we invest in solutions that might not personally benefit ourselves but will help future generations reach net zero – or should money be spent to ensure everyone right now has the best possible quality of life? </p>
<p>Some of these choices people make may depend on gender. Women are more likely than men to be more concerned for the wellbeing of future generations and more likely to bear the costs of costly climate mitigation policies. New <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae105">research</a> into this intergenerational altruism examines the attitudes and behaviours of 1,600 Swedish citizens, and has found a significant difference between women and men. </p>
<p>Women tend to make more climate-friendly choices than men, according to <a href="https://spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/0022-4537.00177">previous research</a>. A <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08941920.2011.651191">study based on Gallup polls</a> involving more than 6,000 US citizens found that women are more worried than men about health-related environmental problems. However, previous research had little to say about whether women deal with environmental intergenerational dilemmas differently than men. </p>
<p>Curious about whether women are more likely to favour costly environmental actions that benefit future generations, our team, including the researchers Gustav Agneman and Sofia Henriks, asked participants to state how many children they have or would like to have. Then they were told how many descendants they could have in 250 years and asked to distribute imaginary resources across generations.</p>
<p>Participants were encouraged to reflect on the fact that if we use up all resources today, there will be none left for future generations. Finally, they were asked whether they’d support climate policies that would increase the costs of aviation, food, fuel and clothes. </p>
<p>A control group of participants were simply asked about their attitudes toward these costly climate policies without being told their estimated number of descendants or how they might distribute resources. Support for climate policies was compared across these two groups. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579175/original/file-20240301-18-2bps6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="adult and child walk away from camera along path in forest, green grass and tree trunks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579175/original/file-20240301-18-2bps6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579175/original/file-20240301-18-2bps6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579175/original/file-20240301-18-2bps6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579175/original/file-20240301-18-2bps6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579175/original/file-20240301-18-2bps6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579175/original/file-20240301-18-2bps6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579175/original/file-20240301-18-2bps6i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Researchers surveyed responses of 1,600 Swedish adults and found that reflecting on future generations changed their support for climate mitigation policies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/family-hiking-forest-sayan-mountains-siberia-1424583575">avtk/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Results show clear gender differences. Women were more supportive of costly climate mitigation policies when they had been informed about their projected number of descendants and had distributed resources across generations. Men were not more likely to support costly climate mitigation policy when asked to contemplate future generations.</p>
<p>Women expressed more worries about the impact of climate change, indicating that when women reflect on their future generations, they become more concerned about climate change and its impact on the planet, and more willing to invest in climate solutions now. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sjop.12995">large body</a> of <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1987-97607-000">social psychology research</a> on gender stereotypes shows that women are seen, and see themselves, as more caring and nurturing than men. The gender differences found in our study could be explained by nurturing traits being activated more significantly in women than men when reflecting on the climate risks that their descendants might face. </p>
<h2>Future implications</h2>
<p>Some citizens seem willing to bear the costs of climate mitigation policies to benefit future generations. Our study suggests that making people aware of the consequences of their behaviour and helping them to psychologically connect to future generations may lead them to be more willing to make environmentally friendly choices. This suggests that political campaigns that stress environmental consequences are not futile. </p>
<p>Women are not necessarily the only people likely to respond to such calls for intergenerational altruism in the future. Gender stereotypes are changing in society. <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00037/full">Previous research</a> has <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0146167200262001">indicated</a> that changes in the workforce <a href="https://spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/sipr.12060">influence</a> how men and women are perceived and socialised. If boys are encouraged from an <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.3200/GNTP.168.2.177-200">early age to be more caring of others</a>, traits traditionally associated with femininity could become more widespread among men. </p>
<p>Perhaps then more men might favour environmental actions that benefit future generations. Until then, women’s voices in the climate mitigation debate should clearly be listened to.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hanna Bäck receives funding from The Swedish Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma A. Renström (prev. Bäck) receives funding from The Swedish Research Council. </span></em></p>Attitudes towards climate policies partly depend on a consideration of future, as yet unborn, descendants. Women tended to show more ability to think about how future generations could benefit.Hanna Bäck, Professor of Political Science, Lund UniversityEmma A. Renström (prev. Bäck), Professor, Department of Psychology, University of GothenburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226802024-03-12T12:32:40Z2024-03-12T12:32:40ZClimate change matters to more and more people – and could be a deciding factor in the 2024 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581053/original/file-20240311-20-u3utg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people demonstrate ahead of a climate summit in New York in September 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participants-seen-holding-signs-at-the-protest-ahead-of-the-news-photo/1675097127?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you ask American voters what their top issues are, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">most will point</a> to kitchen-table issues like the economy, inflation, crime, health care or education. </p>
<p>Fewer than 5% of respondents in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">2023 and 2024 Gallup surveys</a> said that climate change was the most important problem facing the country. </p>
<p>Despite this, research <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">that I conducted with my colleages</a> suggests that concern about climate change has had a significant effect on voters’ choices in the past two presidential elections. Climate change opinions may even have had a large enough effect to change the 2020 election outcome in President Joe Biden’s favor. This was the conclusion of <a href="https://zenodo.org/records/10494414">an analysis</a> of polling data that we published on Jan. 17, 2024, through the University of Colorado’s <a href="https://cires.colorado.edu/centers/center-social-and-environmental-futures-c-sef">Center for Social and Environmental Futures</a>. </p>
<p>What explains these results, and what effect might climate change have on the 2024 election?</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a blue suit and stands on a stage in front of a screen that says 'historic climate action.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks about his administration’s work to combat climate change on Nov. 14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-arrives-to-speak-about-his-news-photo/1782480738?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Measuring climate change’s effect on elections</h2>
<p>We used 2016 and 2020 survey data from the nonpartisan organization <a href="https://www.voterstudygroup.org/data">Voter Study Group</a> to analyze the relationships between thousands of voters’ presidential picks in the past two elections with their demographics and their opinions on 22 different issues, including climate change. </p>
<p>The survey asked voters to rate climate change’s importance with four options: “unimportant,” “not very important,” “somewhat important” or “very important.” </p>
<p>In 2020, 67% of voters rated climate change as “somewhat important” or “very important,” up from 62% in 2016. Of these voters rating climate change as important, 77% supported Biden in 2020, up from 69% who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. This suggests that climate change opinion has been providing the Democrats with a growing electoral advantage. </p>
<p>Using two different statistical models, we estimated that climate change opinion could have shifted the 2020 national popular vote margin (Democratic vote share minus Republican vote share) by 3% or more toward Biden. Using an Electoral College model, we estimated that a 3% shift would have been large enough to change the election outcome in his favor.</p>
<p>These patterns echo the results of a <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">November 2023 poll</a>. This poll found that more voters trust the Democrats’ approach to climate change, compared to Republicans’ approach to the issue.</p>
<h2>What might explain the effect of climate change on voting</h2>
<p>So, if most voters – <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">even Democrats</a> – do not rank climate change as their top issue, how could climate change opinion have tipped the 2020 presidential election? </p>
<p>Our analysis could not answer this question directly, but here are three educated guesses:</p>
<p>First, recent presidential elections have been extremely close. This means that climate change opinion would not need to have a very large effect on voting to change election outcomes. In 2020, Biden <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">won Georgia</a> by about 10,000 votes – 0.2% of the votes cast – and he won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, 0.6% of votes cast. </p>
<p>Second, candidates who deny that climate change is real or a problem might turn off some moderate swing voters, even if climate change was not those voters’ top issue. The scientific evidence for climate change being real <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966">is so strong</a> that if a candidate were to deny the basic science of climate change, some moderate voters might wonder whether to trust that candidate in general. </p>
<p>Third, some voters may be starting to see the connections between climate change and the kitchen-table issues that they consider to be higher priorities than climate change. For example, <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">there is strong evidence</a> that climate change affects health, national security, the economy and immigration patterns in the U.S. and around the world. </p>
<h2>Where the candidates stand</h2>
<p>Biden and former President Donald Trump have very different records on climate change and approaches to the environment. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-presidential-candidates-stand-climate-change/story?id=103313379">has previously called</a> climate change a “hoax.”</p>
<p>In 2017, Trump <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/on-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement/">withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement</a>, an international treaty that legally commits countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/">Biden reversed</a> that decision in 2021.</p>
<p>While in office, Trump rolled back <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-environment/trump-climate-environment-protections/">125 environmental rules and policies</a> aimed at protecting the country’s air, water, land and wildlife, arguing that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">these regulations hurt</a> businesses.</p>
<p>Biden has restored <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-restores-federal-environmental-regulations-scaled-back-by-trump">many of these regulations</a>. He has also added several new rules and regulations, including a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/climate/sec-climate-disclosure-regulations.html">requirement for businesses</a> to publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Biden has <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684">also signed</a> <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346">three major</a> laws that <a href="https://rmi.org/climate-innovation-investment-and-industrial-policy/">each provides</a> tens of <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text">billions in annual spending</a> to address climate change. Two of those laws were bipartisan.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">has also become</a> the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, and the largest exporter of natural gas, during Biden’s term.</p>
<p>In the current campaign, Trump has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/second-trump-presidency-would-axe-biden-climate-agenda-gut-energy-regulators-2024-02-16/">promised to eliminate</a> subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, to increase domestic fossil fuel production and to roll back environmental regulations. In practice, some of these efforts <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/more-republicans-now-want-climate-action-but-trump-could-derail-everything-00142313">could face opposition</a> from congressional Republicans, in addition to Democrats. </p>
<p>Public <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">opinion varies</a> on particular <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2900823/poll-pennsylvania-voters-reject-biden-lng-pause/">climate policies</a> that <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">Biden has enacted</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, doing something about climate change remains much more popular than doing nothing. For example, a <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-politics-policy-fall-2023/toc/4/">November 2023 Yale survey</a> found 57% of voters would prefer a candidate who supports action on global warming over a candidate who opposes action. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people march and wave banners and flags in front of the US Capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">People march from the U.S. Capitol to the White House protesting former President Donald Trump’s environmental policies in April 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-march-from-the-u-s-capitol-to-the-white-house-for-news-photo/674864930?adppopup=true">Astrid Riecken/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>What this means for 2024</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">Our study</a> found that between the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections, climate change became increasingly important to voters, and the importance voters assign to climate change became increasingly predictive of voting for the Democrats. If these trends continue, then climate change could provide the Democrats with an even larger electoral advantage in 2024.</p>
<p>Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the Democrats will win the 2024 election. For example, our study estimated that climate change gave the Democrats an advantage in 2016, and yet Trump still won that election because of other issues. Immigration <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx">is currently the top issue</a> for a plurality of voters, and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/">recent national polls</a> suggest that Trump currently leads the 2024 presidential race over Biden. </p>
<p>Although a majority of voters currently prefer the Democrats’ climate stances, this need not always be true. For example, Democrats <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">risk losing voters</a> when their policies <a href="https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-iron-law-of-climate-policy">impose economic costs</a>, or when they are framed as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx">anti-capitalist</a>, <a href="https://osf.io/tdkf3">racial</a>, or <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-we-will-fight-climate-change">overly pessimistic</a>. Some Republican-backed climate policies, <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/press-release/bpc-morning-consult-poll-finds-voters-support-permitting-reform-61-to-13/">like trying to speed up</a> renewable energy projects, are popular.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, if the election were held today, the totality of evidence suggests that most voters would prefer a climate-conscious candidate, and that most climate-conscious voters currently prefer a Democrat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Burgess receives funding from Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the Bruce D. Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization at the University of Colorado Boulder. </span></em></p>Research shows that climate change had a significant effect on voting choices in the 2016 and 2020 elections – and could also influence the 2024 presidential race.Matt Burgess, Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231432024-02-27T12:41:34Z2024-02-27T12:41:34ZHow psychology can help people live more climate-friendly lives – lessons from around the world<p>Quick and easy interventions that inspire people to take direct climate action are the holy grail. Behavioural scientists and policymakers are keen to learn which small steps can make the biggest difference. One of the largest experiments ever conducted in climate change psychology shows that the same interventions have different outcomes depending on the specific context, and crucially, the country in which change is being driven. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adj5778">New research</a> by an international team of more than 250 scientists studied several environmental interventions and the way people responded to them in 63 countries. </p>
<p>In Austria, one of the best ways to increase effective pro-environmental behaviour, such as time spent planting trees, is to present people with information that shows climate change is already happening now, it is negatively affecting Europe and it is harmful to people nearby. This is what behavioural scientists call <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.12601">reducing psychological distance</a>. This framing makes the risks and dangers of climate change feel more immediate and relatable, which encourages people to act against it.</p>
<p>But in Germany, a country that shares a similar language, culture and long history with Austria, the same intervention had a very different outcome. Participants tended to believe less in climate change, were less likely to support climate change mitigation policies and were less likely to plant trees.</p>
<h2>The global outlook</h2>
<p>Our team tested the effectiveness of 11 strategies designed to increase climate change awareness and climate action around the globe. </p>
<p>More than 59,000 participants were shown one of 11 possible interventions designed to influence their climate change beliefs, such as writing a letter to one’s nephew or reading information about climate change as though its effect were to occur very close to the reader. Then participants were surveyed to assess their belief in climate change, support for mitigation policies and involvement in different types of environmental action, such as planting trees. </p>
<p>Overall, 86% of people surveyed believed that climate change is happening, is a dangerous problem and is largely caused by humans. Support for important climate mitigation policies was measured at an impressive 72%. </p>
<p>Another key measure was effortful behaviour: completing a tedious task, such as identifying specific number combinations, in exchange for a donation to plant a tree. More than half of the participants planted more than 300,000 trees, suggesting that most people do not question climate change, they endorse policies meant to mitigate it and are willing to do whatever they can to stop it.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hands of adult on left and Asian girl on right, holding tiny tree sapling about to plant in soil" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Tree planting was one of 11 environmental actions measured within a new study into the climate psychology of making change happen at both personal and policy levels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/asian-little-child-girl-helping-her-562012174">A3pfamily/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Before conducting this experiment, we hoped to find out which interventions would work in all contexts. Instead, we found some really interesting results that have spurred even more scientific investigation in this domain.</p>
<p>When we put all the data together, we found that one intervention, like reducing psychological distance, worked well in one context but then backfired in another, as is the case in Austria and Germany. This is probably due to the large amount of diversity in the data. </p>
<p>There could be further differences that our data has not accounted for. Complicating things even more, interventions had different effects depending on the variable we were targeting. If one intervention worked at increasing belief in climate change, it tended to backfire on effortful behaviour.</p>
<p>No one solution will stimulate climate change mitigation internationally. Both top-down regulations from policymakers and individual behaviour shifts are necessary pieces of the puzzle and context is key.</p>
<h2>A new app</h2>
<p>We have used our findings to help design a new <a href="https://climate-interventions.shinyapps.io/climate-interventions/">climate intervention app</a> that can empower people to make more environmentally conscious decisions at governmental, community and household levels. Based on the vast pool of data used in our research, anyone can explore how effective interventions have been in specific countries, within certain age ranges or even according to political identity, ideally by looking at samples with more than 30 people for the best results. </p>
<p>This free and easy-to-use app could be particularly useful for policymakers and climate change communicators. For example, if you want to know how to best increase policy support in Europeans who are over 50 years old, emphasising how those policies will affect future generations, especially their own children and grandchildren, might be your best bet. </p>
<h2>Voting for change</h2>
<p>Whenever making personal choices related to climate change, such as opting for a slow train or booking a quick flight, you can use these results to help make your decision easier. Log into the app and see what works well for people of a similar age to you living in the same country. You can then consider the intervention before making your decision. </p>
<p>If reducing psychological distance is the best acting intervention, you can remind yourself of all the ways that climate change is already affecting people close to you. This will help you prioritise what is important to you in the context of that decision and make the whole process simpler. </p>
<p>Voting is a choice that can have a huge effect on climate. Voting for candidates and parties that prioritise climate change can help curb greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, one of the top predictors of whether a climate policy will be adopted is public support. </p>
<p>Being vocal about climate policies that you support may help to spread awareness and increase the likelihood that the policy is adopted. That might involve writing letters to your local representatives, talking to friends and family or posting on social media. </p>
<p>Our paper sheds new light on the effectiveness of various types of climate messaging and the app offers practical ways to help facilitate climate action. By streamlining the more targeted deployment of effective interventions, less time and money will be wasted on interventions that won’t feasibly work in that scenario. Coordinating efforts at all levels of governance is necessary to effectively tackle the climate crisis because time is of the essence.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Insight from one of the largest experiments ever conducted in climate change psychology sheds light on how people could make more effective decisions about their lifestyle and also wider policies.Chiara Longoni, Associate Professor, Marketing and Social Science, Bocconi UniversityKimberly Doell, Senior Researcher in Environmental and Climate Change Psychology, Universität WienLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2237222024-02-16T03:07:23Z2024-02-16T03:07:23ZRoss Garnaut and Rod Sims have proposed a $100 billion-a-year fossil fuel tax – and it’s a debate Australia should embrace<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576107/original/file-20240216-28-n2qwvj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3842%2C2557&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Leading Australian economists Ross Garnaut and Rod Sims this week sought to shake up the carbon policy debate in Australia, by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/14/fossil-fuel-tax-australia-revenue-economists-ross-garnaut-rod-sims">proposing</a> a tax on the nation’s fossil fuel production. They claim it could raise A$100 billion in its first year and position Australia at the forefront of the low-carbon revolution.</p>
<p>The proposal has been rejected by the federal government and the Nationals, as well as business groups and the fossil fuel industry. The Greens have thrown their support behind the idea.</p>
<p>Garnaut and Sims have characterised their proposal as a “levy”. But it’s essentially a tax, applied to one sector of the economy: exporters of fossil fuels such as coal and gas, as well as importers of oil and diesel.</p>
<p>Australia’s recent political history tells us the road to a carbon tax is not smooth. However, as other nations race to restructure their economies in line with a low-carbon future, Australia risks being left behind. Whether to introduce a major, economy-shaping tax on fossil fuels is a conversation Australia must have. </p>
<h2>How would the plan work?</h2>
<p>The respected economists presented <a href="https://cdn.sanity.io/files/1pv5uha8/production/acd64198bc1248006ac829e4852c0c72b9e120e6.pdf">the plan</a> to the National Press Club this week. It involves a “carbon solutions levy” applied to all fossil fuel extraction sites in Australia (around 105 sites), and on all fossil fuel imports to Australia. The tax would presumably be calculated according to the emissions generated when the fuels are burned.</p>
<p>Garnaut and Sims say proceeds in the first year of the levy would be well over A$100 billion. They say the money should be spent on a rapid acceleration of Australia’s renewable energy expansion, as well as subsidising the development of low-carbon manufacturing for products such as steel and aluminium. </p>
<p>The proceeds would also be spent on cost-of-living relief for consumers, such as energy bill relief and scrapping the current excise on petrol and diesel fuel.</p>
<p>Garnaut told the National Press Club the global transition to net-zero represents a huge opportunity Australia must seize:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We can use it to raise productivity and living standards after the decade of stagnation. Other countries do not share our natural endowments of wind and solar energy resources, land to deploy them, as well as land to grow biomass sustainably as an alternative to petroleum and coal for chemical manufacture. </p>
<p>In the zero-carbon economy, Australia is the economically natural location to produce a substantial proportion of the products currently made with large carbon emissions in Northeast Asia and Europe.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And as Garnaut also outlined in his speech, climate change threatens Australia’s economy, which remains heavily dependent on exporting fossil fuels. </p>
<h2>Is the levy a good idea?</h2>
<p>Carbon dioxide emissions cause global warming, which damages the planet and its people. The purpose of a carbon tax, or levy, is to ensure polluting companies pay for the damage they cause. In theory, the taxes make polluting production processes more expensive than the alternatives, reducing demand for those products.</p>
<p>The world, including Australia, has committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. It’s a big task and we need to act fast. Economists <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-020-00436-x">broadly agree</a> carbon taxes are the most efficient, lowest-cost way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. So the proposal makes good policy sense.</p>
<p>Australia had a carbon price, or tax, from 2012 until 2014. It was introduced by Labor but repealed by the Abbott Coalition government. The policy was working: <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-its-imminent-demise-the-carbon-price-has-cut-emissions-29199">analysis</a> showed emissions in Australia’s national electricity market would have been 11 million to 17 million tonnes higher without the measure.</p>
<p>Of course, sound policy ideas do not always come to fruition. After more than a decade of the so-called “climate wars” in Australia, the term “carbon tax” remains politically unpalatable.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, the plan proposed this week was <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/chris-bowen-and-david-littleproud-reject-carbon-solutions-levy-proposed-by-rod-sims-and-ross-garnaut/news-story/a28f15c7588a8b18845198d1162b4a5a">immediately rejected</a> by Labor and the Nationals. Even less surprising was the strong rebuff from business groups such as the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and the fossil fuel lobby. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-forcing-australians-to-weigh-up-relocating-how-do-they-make-that-difficult-decision-221971">Climate change is forcing Australians to weigh up relocating. How do they make that difficult decision?</a>
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<h2>The rest of the world got the memo</h2>
<p>Putting a price on carbon is not groundbreaking policy. <a href="https://unfccc.int/about-us/regional-collaboration-centres/the-ciaca/about-carbon-pricing">Many countries</a> do it – either as direct taxes or <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/717898">emissions trading schemes</a>.</p>
<p>Notably, from 2026 a European Union <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/eu-launches-first-phase-worlds-first-carbon-border-tariff-2023-09-30/#:%7E:text=Importers%20will%20from%202026%20need,carbon%20market%20when%20they%20pollute.">tariff on carbon-intensive imports</a> will come into effect. Known as the “carbon border adjustment mechanism”, it means importers will have to report on – and pay for – the emissions created when producing goods such as iron and steel. </p>
<p>The policy is designed to level the playing field for EU manufacturers that must pay a penalty for their own pollution. Imports from countries where a carbon price applies would be exempt from the tariff. </p>
<p>In coming years, we can expect other jurisdictions to implement similar policies to guard their domestic industries. Australia must protect its export revenue by expanding its production of low-carbon goods, or else find itself stuck with expensive, emissions-intensive products that no-one wants to buy.</p>
<p>It’s also important to remember Australia is a relatively small economy with little clout in global trade. To remain serious trading partners, we must come to the table with adequate climate policies.</p>
<p>And finally, imposing a carbon levy in Australia would ensure we get to keep the revenue for ourselves. The potential proceeds are enormous, and could be spent raising the living standard for all Australians.</p>
<p>My only real quibble with the plan is the proposal to set the levy at the level of the EU’s five-year average carbon price, currently around $90 a tonne. This puts Australia at the mercy of economic conditions in Europe. We’d be far wiser to determine the price ourselves.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-pricing-works-the-largest-ever-study-puts-it-beyond-doubt-142034">Carbon pricing works: the largest-ever study puts it beyond doubt</a>
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<h2>Will such a levy ever happen?</h2>
<p>Garnaut and Sims know their policy is a bold one – and will have its detractors. But as the world comes to terms with the economic reality of climate change, Australia risks being left behind. </p>
<p>As Garnaut told the ABC, everyone is a winner under the plan, except fossil fuel companies which, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-14/economists-call-for-carbon-levy/103461496">he conceded</a>, “will hate it”. That may be true. But climate change is wreaking havoc on human communities, on natural systems, and on the global economy. It’s only fair that those responsible pay for the damage.</p>
<p>The political hurdles are high, but not insurmountable. Australia already penalises polluting companies via the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-safeguard-mechanism-deal-is-only-a-half-win-for-the-greens-and-for-the-climate-202612">safeguard mechanism</a>, which imposes a hard cap on industrial emissions. Ten years ago, such a policy seemed highly unlikely, but we got there.</p>
<p>A carbon levy of the type proposed is an eminently sensible approach to get to net zero. This is a policy debate whose time has come. Let’s bring it on.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">Wholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here's why</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian A. MacKenzie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As other nations race to restructure their economies in line with a low-carbon future, Australia risks being left behind. An economy-shaping tax on fossil fuels is a conversation we must have.Ian A. MacKenzie, Professor of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168122023-12-13T23:09:55Z2023-12-13T23:09:55ZCanadian scientists are still being muzzled, and that risks undermining climate policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565586/original/file-20231213-31-mk3dtu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C76%2C2947%2C1917&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Interference in research has serious consequences for scientists and for the laws and policies their research informs.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canadian-scientists-are-still-being-muzzled-and-that-risks-undermining-climate-policy" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Environmental scientists in Canada continue to be stifled in their ability to conduct and communicate their research. Interference in science, also referred to as “<a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/canada-and-the-war-on-science/2016985.article">muzzling</a>,” was a well-documented concern during the Conservative government of the early 2010’s, when it gripped the collective consciousness of Canadian federal public sector scientists. Our research sheds light on a broader understanding of the recent interference in environmental sciences in Canada.</p>
<p>Interference is used to describe intentional and unfair constraints on scientists that restrict their ability to conduct and communicate their work. Examples of interference include restrictions on ability to communicate work to the public or colleagues (muzzling), workplace harassment, and undue modifications made to findings that alter the data or its interpretation.</p>
<p>Interference has serious consequences. It causes issues with researchers’ mental health and career satisfaction as well as limits the ability of taxpayer-funded research to be shared with the public.</p>
<p>Even more seriously, interference can lead to downplaying environmental risks or a lack of good information to support decision-making and policies about resource extraction and the environment.</p>
<h2>Study shows interference is ongoing in Canada</h2>
<p>We recently surveyed <a href="https://www.facetsjournal.com/doi/full/10.1139/facets-2023-0005">741 environmental researchers across Canada</a> in two separate <a href="https://www.facetsjournal.com/doi/full/10.1139/facets-2023-0006">studies into interference</a>. We circulated our survey through scientific societies related to environmental fields, as well as directly emailing Canadian authors of peer-reviewed research in environmental disciplines. </p>
<p>Researchers were asked (1) if they believed they had experienced interference in their work, (2) the sources and types of this interference, and (3) the subsequent effects on their career satisfaction and well-being. </p>
<p>We also asked demographic information to understand whether researchers’ perceptions of interference differed by career stage, research area or identity. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565592/original/file-20231213-19-nku1nx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black woman in a lab coat looking through a microscope" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565592/original/file-20231213-19-nku1nx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565592/original/file-20231213-19-nku1nx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565592/original/file-20231213-19-nku1nx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565592/original/file-20231213-19-nku1nx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565592/original/file-20231213-19-nku1nx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565592/original/file-20231213-19-nku1nx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565592/original/file-20231213-19-nku1nx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Interference can lead to downplaying environmental risks or a lack of good information to support decision-making.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Although overall ability to communicate is improving, interference is a pervasive issue in Canada, including from government, private industry and academia. We found 92 per cent of the environmental researchers reported having experienced interference with their ability to communicate or conduct their research in some form. </p>
<p>Interference also manifested in different ways and already-marginalized researchers experienced worse outcomes.</p>
<h2>History of interference in Canada</h2>
<p>Under the Conservative government of Stephen Harper, first-hand reports of muzzling by federal government scientists were common. These frustrations eventually boiled over in 2013 when hundreds of scientists took to the streets in lab coats to protest the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/canada-war-on-science/514322/">“war on science.”</a></p>
<p>These claims were later backed in a <a href="https://pipsc.ca/sites/default/files/comms/Defrosting-report-e_v4%202_1.pdf">survey by the Professional Institute of the Public Service (PIPSC)</a>. Their 2013 survey of federal scientists found that 90 per cent of respondents felt restricted in their ability to conduct and communicate research, and 70 per cent reported political interference.</p>
<p>In 2015, the Liberals, under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, were elected on promises to lift restrictions and implement a <a href="https://science.gc.ca/site/science/en/office-chief-science-advisor/model-policy-scientific-integrity">Model Policy on Scientific Integrity</a>. Versions of this policy were adopted in 2019 across all federal scientific departments.</p>
<p>In 2016, PIPSC conducted a follow up survey. They found that although accounts of muzzling had decreased, 50 per cent of respondents still felt restricted in their ability to conduct and communicate work, and 40 per cent experienced ongoing political interference.</p>
<h2>Interference in science today</h2>
<p>Though informative, the PIPSC survey was limited in scope: they only focused on federal government scientists and didn’t investigate all sources of interference, or which subgroups of scientists were most vulnerable. Our research addressed these gaps and investigated the impact of the scientific integrity policies.</p>
<p>In our survey, respondents indicated that, overall, their ability to communicate with the public has improved in the recent years. Of the respondents aware of the government’s scientific integrity policies, roughly half of them attribute positive changes to them. </p>
<p>Others argued that the 2015 change in government had the biggest influence. In the first few months of their tenure, the Liberal government created a new cabinet position, the Minister of Science (this position was absorbed into the role of Minister of Innovation, Science, and Industry in 2019), and appointed a <a href="https://science.gc.ca/site/science/en/office-chief-science-advisor/model-policy-scientific-integrity">chief science advisor</a> among other changes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565593/original/file-20231213-19-uod420.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white woman takes a sample from a body of water. Another person stands next to her carrying a box." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565593/original/file-20231213-19-uod420.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565593/original/file-20231213-19-uod420.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565593/original/file-20231213-19-uod420.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565593/original/file-20231213-19-uod420.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565593/original/file-20231213-19-uod420.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565593/original/file-20231213-19-uod420.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565593/original/file-20231213-19-uod420.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many respondents said they limited communication with the public and policymakers to avoid negative backlash or impacts on their careers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though the ability to communicate has generally improved, many of the researchers argued interference still goes on in subtler ways. These included undue restriction on what kind of environmental research they can do, and funding to pursue them. Many respondents attributed those restrictions to the influence of private industry. </p>
<p>Respondents identified the major sources of external interference as management, workplace policies, and external research partners. The chief motivations for interference, as the scientists saw it, included downplaying environmental risks, justifying an organization’s current position on an issue and avoiding contention.</p>
<p>Our most surprising finding was almost half of respondents said they limited their communications with the public and policymakers due to fears of negative backlash and reduced career opportunities.</p>
<p>In addition, interference had not been experienced equally. Early career and marginalized scientists — including those who identify as women, racialized, living with a disability and 2SLGBTQI+ — reported facing significantly more interference than their counterparts.</p>
<p>Scientists studying climate change, pollution, environmental impacted assessments and threatened species were also more likely to experience interference with their work than scientists in other disciplines.</p>
<h2>The consequences for Canadians and our environment</h2>
<p>Environmental policy is only as good as the evidence it is based on. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-the-scientific-basis-for-a-rapid-fossil-fuel-phase-out-219382">current climate crisis</a>, effective environmental policy has never been more important. If scientists cannot freely conduct and communicate their work, the gap between evidence and policy widens, and that means Canada gets less effective laws and policies. </p>
<p>Environmental scientists are doing essential work. They are informing and equipping us to fight against the climate crisis, <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-we-fight-to-protect-species-on-the-brink-of-extinction-lets-not-forget-the-familiar-ones-199307">prevent extinction of species</a> and solve the multitude of environmental challenges we face. If scientists are unable to effectively communicate with the public, democratic decision-making, that depends on informed voters, could be compromised as well. </p>
<p>All institutions employing scientists must take active steps to protect them from interference. This can be done by implementing and upholding scientific integrity policies, similar to those of the federal government, and creating better supports for early career researchers and those from marginalized backgrounds. </p>
<p>From the public and the news media, we should demand that scientists’ voices and knowledge have a secure place in public discourse, while also protecting them from online harassment and backlash. We are grateful to have been able to undertake and share our research without interference. We hope that changes can be made so that scientists, in all sectors and all institutions, share this privilege.</p>
<p><em>Nada Salem from Evidence for Democracy also co-authored this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216812/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alana Westwood received funding to support this work from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Manjulika E. Robertson received funding from the Nova Scotia Graduate Scholarship. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha M. Chu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If scientists cannot freely conduct and communicate their work, the gap between evidence and policy widens, and that means Canada gets less effective laws and policies.Alana Westwood, Assistant Professor, School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie UniversityManjulika E. Robertson, Research Associate, Westwood Lab, Dalhousie UniversitySamantha M. Chu, Master of Environmental Studies Student, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2171362023-11-09T17:25:55Z2023-11-09T17:25:55ZSunak’s climate shift is out of touch with the demands of the UK’s workforce – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558604/original/file-20231109-17-il96tv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=756%2C42%2C4850%2C3690&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">UK workers have a high degree of concern about the climate crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/engineer-team-full-skill-quality-maintenance-2111911970">MNBB Studio/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Rishi Sunak plans to introduce a bill aimed at granting new oil and gas drilling licences in the North Sea. The proposal was outlined in the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-kings-speech-2023">2023 king’s speech</a> to parliament, where he set out the government’s priorities ahead of the next general election. </p>
<p>This development comes less than two months after Sunak made a series of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/23/observer-view-rishi-sunaks-cynical-backtracking-on-climate-will-be-to-no-electoral-avail">controversial</a> announcements setting out the government’s revised strategy for achieving net zero emissions – a move that many argue has diluted its commitment to the UK’s climate objectives. </p>
<p>Sunak has <a href="https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1721524335926517937?s=20">justified</a> his watered-down climate policy by saying it will protect British jobs in the oil and gas industry and make the UK more energy independent. However, the reaction from experts, the public and businesses suggests that this is a retrograde step.</p>
<p>The Climate Change Committee – the government’s independent advisors – had <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/2023-progress-report-to-parliament/">previously stated</a> that the government was not doing enough to tackle climate change and would <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-will-miss-climate-goals-by-huge-margin-without-new-policies/">fall short</a> of its climate targets. The government’s recent announcements will only <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/2023/10/12/ccc-assessment-of-recent-announcements-and-developments-on-net-zero/">further constrain</a> UK prospects for achieving those climate goals.</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/nathansbennett/status/1721512464422961392?s=46">Recent polling</a> also suggests that swing voters now view the Conservatives less favourably because of their focus on oil and gas. But what about the wider working public? Our <a href="https://business.leeds.ac.uk/downloads/download/315/uk-workers-and-the-low-carbon-transition">own research</a>, published in August 2023, suggests that many workers in the UK see the government’s backtrack on climate policy as a huge disappointment too.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaking on Downing Street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558603/original/file-20231109-25-gfnz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558603/original/file-20231109-25-gfnz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558603/original/file-20231109-25-gfnz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558603/original/file-20231109-25-gfnz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558603/original/file-20231109-25-gfnz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558603/original/file-20231109-25-gfnz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558603/original/file-20231109-25-gfnz6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The UK government’s focus on fossil fuels risks alienating the workforce.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-downing-street-uk-25th-october-2253948447">Sean Aidan Calderbank/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Taking leadership</h2>
<p>We surveyed 2,001 UK workers across all sectors and age groups to gauge their “readiness” for working in a decarbonised economy and to understand their expectations regarding a fair and just transition. </p>
<p>Our findings are unambiguous: nearly eight out of ten UK workers expressed that they were either very or fairly concerned about climate change. Every second UK worker believes that the UK is already witnessing the effects of climate change and urgently requires climate action.</p>
<p>At the time of the survey, carried out in April 2022, workers maintained a sense of hope that the climate crisis could be addressed. But they emphasised the need for action. </p>
<p>Most workers expect the government to show leadership and act, with 63% identifying the government as having the greatest responsibility for addressing climate change. Slightly less than half (46%) of workers ranked businesses highly too.</p>
<p>Many workers are active on environmental and climate issues. For example, 59% stated that they are trying to reduce their carbon footprint at home. However, very few believe that the primary responsibility for climate action lies with individuals. </p>
<p>The workers we surveyed urged the government to finance the projects that are necessary to decarbonise the economy, as this chart shows:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558419/original/file-20231108-17-1gyyzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph showing workers' support for green policy ideas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558419/original/file-20231108-17-1gyyzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558419/original/file-20231108-17-1gyyzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558419/original/file-20231108-17-1gyyzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558419/original/file-20231108-17-1gyyzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558419/original/file-20231108-17-1gyyzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558419/original/file-20231108-17-1gyyzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558419/original/file-20231108-17-1gyyzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workers want the government to finance the projects that are necessary to decarbonise the economy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cutter et al. (2023)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Workers have high expectations for the positive changes that will result from investments in the green economy. Seven in ten workers expect cleaner air and enhanced soil and water quality. Six in ten workers feel that increased health and wellbeing would accompany this transition. </p>
<p>They did, however, also express concerns over potential increases in the cost of living, the possibility for heightened inequalities, or a reduction in living standards.</p>
<h2>Finding green jobs</h2>
<p>More than one-third (42%) of the workers we surveyed said they were interested in working in the green economy. Most of these workers said they would consider switching to a green job because they find the prospect of working in the green economy both interesting and meaningful. A significant number (40%) are strongly motivated by the opportunity to contribute to reducing the harmful effects of climate change.</p>
<p>Workers exhibit the greatest interest in working in sectors such as environmental protection or restoration, renewable energy, recycling and the waste industry. Encouragingly, workers in higher carbon-emitting sectors display higher confidence that their skills are suited for employment in the green economy. </p>
<p>However, a range of obstacles are causing workers to hesitate over making the switch. The prospect of lower pay, the time needed to retrain, and the cost of retraining are all seen as significant barriers for workers considering a move into green jobs.</p>
<p><a href="https://neweconomics.org/2023/02/skills-for-a-new-economy">Research</a> by the <a href="https://neweconomics.org/">New Economics Foundation</a> – a British thinktank that promotes social, economic and environmental justice – suggests the average worker is currently qualified at a level below that needed to access many green jobs. The foundation estimates that workers need between six and 18 months of additional training, on average, to access green jobs. </p>
<p>Our findings reveal that workers expect the government to show leadership and offer policies that will help them make the switch, with a particular emphasis on the creation of jobs in their current location or region:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558421/original/file-20231108-25-ue1fnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing workers responses to questions about just transition to a greener economy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558421/original/file-20231108-25-ue1fnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558421/original/file-20231108-25-ue1fnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558421/original/file-20231108-25-ue1fnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558421/original/file-20231108-25-ue1fnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558421/original/file-20231108-25-ue1fnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558421/original/file-20231108-25-ue1fnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558421/original/file-20231108-25-ue1fnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workers are keen to switch to jobs in the green economy, but there are several obstacles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cutter et al. (2023)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many workers are willing to retrain and switch to doing a green job. Some say they already possess a good skills base for employment in the green economy, and are willing to spend more time on training. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the prime minister’s U-turn on climate policy indicates that workers’ aspirations for a just transition to a greener economy are not being met. The government should not let down these workers but rather capitalise on the enthusiasm of a workforce eager to be part of delivering net zero. The UK needs a government that is responsive to workers.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vera Trappmann receives funding from Research England and Hans-Böckler Foundation. The study upon which this article is based was done in collaboration with Dr. Felix Schulz and Dr. Ursula Balderson, both colleagues at the Centre for Employment Relations Innovation and Change (CERIC), Leeds University Business School.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Cutter receives funding from Reseach England</span></em></p>Our survey of UK workers reveals their deep concern about climate change – many want to see action being taken.Vera Trappmann, Professor in Comparative Employment Relations, University of LeedsJo Cutter, Lecturer in Work and Employment Relations, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2130612023-09-26T17:58:10Z2023-09-26T17:58:10ZNZ’s Green Party is ‘filling the void on the left’ as voters grow frustrated with Labour’s centrist shift<p>The Green Party has run a strong campaign. With a 14.2% share in the <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/national-would-still-need-nz-first-on-current-polling">latest Newshub-Reid Research poll</a>, up by 1.9 percentage points since the previous poll, that is more than half the Labour Party’s 26.5%. </p>
<p>The gain seems to have come from voters unimpressed by Labour’s centrist shift under leader Chris Hipkins, which leaves the Greens to fill a wider void on the left. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1706373398475972821"}"></div></p>
<p>The party can claim policy success in several areas – environment and climate, housing quality, family and sexual violence prevention. But has it achieved the social and economic changes required for the climate resilient society it campaigns for? The answer has to be a categorical no.</p>
<p>One reason is that the party continues to battle internal tensions between idealism and pragmatism. </p>
<p>The Greens have been a continuous presence in parliament since the start of the MMP era in 1996. But the party’s policies appear too radical for some members, and not radical enough for those who want to see fewer compromises on issues such as climate action and social justice. </p>
<h2>Distinctive party rules</h2>
<p>These internal tensions spilled over last year when James Shaw initially failed to get the required 75% support to be reelected as co-leader before being <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/474500/james-shaw-re-elected-as-green-party-co-leader-by-delegates">reinstated</a>. </p>
<p>Changes to the party constitution in May last year scrapped the requirement for a male co-leader. Instead, there is now a requirement to have a Māori co-leader of any gender, along with a woman co-leader. </p>
<p>The Greens’ 2023 <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/green_party_unveils_its_list_for_the_2023_election">party list</a> reflects both new talent and greater ethnic diversity than in the past. </p>
<p>Far more than any other political party (save Te Pāti Māori), the distinctive leadership structure and decision-making rules allow the Greens to give effect to their commitments to te Tiriti o Waitangi/Treaty of Waitangi, gender equity and grassroots democracy.</p>
<p>Their processes may look messy to those looking in from the outside, but it works. They keep leaders accountable and ensure they stay connected, with a driven and committed membership.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-pebble-in-the-shoe-to-future-power-broker-the-rise-and-rise-of-te-pati-maori-212089">From 'pebble in the shoe' to future power broker – the rise and rise of te Pāti Māori</a>
</strong>
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<h2>Policy success</h2>
<p>If getting the policy architecture in place to facilitate implementation is one measure of political success, then the Greens have achieved credible action on many fronts. </p>
<p>Getting the 2019 <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2019/0061/latest/LMS183736.html">Zero Carbon Act</a> across the line with cross-party support, with the subsequent setting up of the <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/">Climate Change Commission</a>, was certainly a success. So were the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/12/new-zealand-bans-all-new-offshore-oil-exploration-as-part-of-carbon-neutral-future">ban on new oil and gas exploration</a> and the establishment of <a href="https://www.araake.co.nz/">Ara Ake</a>, the “future energy centre” in New Plymouth. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-offshore-oil-and-gas-exploration-in-nz-was-hard-won-but-it-remains-politically-fragile-203396">The end of offshore oil and gas exploration in NZ was hard won – but it remains politically fragile</a>
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<p>These and many other <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/our_achievements">initiatives</a>, reflect much required movement. But despite ambition, implementation has fallen short.</p>
<p>For some party insiders, the Greens’ climate agenda has been hamstrung by the ministerial responsibilities they have had under a Labour government. As <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/459250/green-party-discontent-members-walk-ex-mps-criticise-leadership">critics pointed out</a> after the 2021 UN climate summit in Glasgow, the climate change ministerial portfolio headed by a Green MP failed to reform the emissions-heavy agribusiness sector, instead focusing on reducing carbon emissions through offshore carbon credits. </p>
<p>Ultimately, the Greens’ policy positions on a range of issues are more radical than the outcomes that have been achieved under the Labour government. </p>
<p>Even many of the gains made by the Greens in forging cross-party consensus on climate action are showing signs of shrivelling away during this election campaign, with a National-ACT coalition promising to <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/132895990/stuff-climate-election-survey-see-how-the-parties-compare">reverse most climate policy measures</a>. </p>
<h2>Ending poverty and tax reform</h2>
<p>Working within the market-led political system has been a disappointment for some party supporters loyal to core Green principles. However, there is no question the Greens have shifted the terms of the debate on poverty in Aotearoa. </p>
<p>Reminiscent of the Nobel Prize winning economist Amartya Sen’s powerful argument that famines were caused not by natural disasters but by the absence of a functioning democracy, the Greens have positioned poverty as a political choice that no country needs to make. </p>
<p>The party’s <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/ending_poverty_together">Ending Poverty Together</a> policy proposes an income guarantee that would ensure everyone, including students, receives at least NZ$385 a week after tax. Its reconfigured tax structure claims to benefit an estimated 95% of all tax payers, a much broader group than National’s proposed tax cuts would affect. </p>
<p>To pay for these changes, the Greens want to introduce a wealth tax of 2.5% a year on assets above $2 million per individual.</p>
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<p>While the details of the Greens’ tax policy would undoubtedly need refining, the potential to eliminate poverty and ensure free dental care for all offers a glimpse of what truly transformational policy can look like. </p>
<p>The reluctance of New Zealand (the only wealthy country without any form of wealth tax) to impose fairer taxes has led to <a href="https://www.inequality.org.nz/understand/">deep inequality</a>, with devastating consequences for the poorest. As social commentator Max Rashbrooke points out in his latest book <a href="https://www.bwb.co.nz/books/too-much-money/">Too Much Money</a>:</p>
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<p>The wealthiest tenth own one quarter of the country’s assets, while the poorest half of the country has just 2%. </p>
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<p>This situation did not just happen; it is the direct consequence of political decisions. Just as government policies previously kept inequality in check through taxes, regulations and a shared commitment to a well-funded welfare state, policy changes allowed the inequality we see now. And it is policy reform that can remedy it. </p>
<h2>Future direction</h2>
<p>The Green Party’s core voter base appears to be solid, ensuring it will continue its presence in parliament. </p>
<p>At 14.2% in the polls, the party is closing in on its highest ever level of 15%, reached in 2017 in a TVNZ poll. This was in the wake of then co-leader Metiria Turei’s revelations of misleading WINZ as a solo parent, though, and the party only achieved 6.3% in that year’s election.</p>
<p>If current polling holds up and translates into a significantly expanded caucus, it may allow the Greens to more actively pursue their ideals.</p>
<p>Even if they end up on the opposition benches, they can still remain the loudest voices on climate change and social justice. They can get issues on the parliamentary agenda, ask questions of ministers and introduce members’ bills.</p>
<p>They can also effectively shape public debate on unchecked economic growth – the default position of the major parties – and its resulting environmental degradation and social inequality. </p>
<p>The beating heart of the Green Party is their <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/charter">Green Charter</a>, with its four principles of ecological wisdom, social responsibility, appropriate decision making and non-violence. This underpins the moral voice the Greens bring to a wide range of issues.</p>
<p>Currently, both centrist parties are showing signs of moving towards the right – away from social justice and environmental issues, for example – although in varying degrees. This leaves a void on the left for the Greens to fill, while further eroding Labour’s base.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213061/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Priya Kurian has received funding from The Deep South National Science Challenge for research on climate adaptation, The Rockefeller Foundation for research on climate justice, and the Royal Society of New Zealand's Marsden Grant.</span></em></p>New Zealand’s Greens have undoubtedly succeeded in some policy areas, including climate and housing quality. But the party continues to battle internal tensions between idealism and pragmatism.Priya Kurian, Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2130662023-09-14T20:05:32Z2023-09-14T20:05:32ZTim Flannery’s message to all: rise up and become a climate leader – be the change we need so desperately<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548177/original/file-20230913-48731-y1vy63.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C2858%2C1586&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Totem Films</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As humanity hurtles towards a climate catastrophe, the debate has shifted – from the science to solutions. We know we need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. But progress has been painfully slow. </p>
<p>It’s clear the world is lacking climate leadership. So what makes a great climate leader and why are we not seeing more of them?</p>
<p>For two years now I’ve been on a journey, a quest if you like, to find good climate leaders. This is the subject of my new documentary, <a href="https://climatechangersmovie.com">Climate Changers</a> with director Johan Gabrielsson.</p>
<h2>Missed opportunities and wasted time</h2>
<p>Saul Griffith is an engineer who wants to “electrify everything”. The co-founder of non-profit group <a href="https://www.rewiringaustralia.org/">Rewiring Australia</a> decried the “dearth of political leadership” when he told us:</p>
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<p>We haven’t had any head of state, of any major nation, positively and proactively engage on climate as an emergency, as an opportunity […] we haven’t had a Churchill or Roosevelt or John F Kennedy ‘let’s go to the moon’ that says: ‘here’s a threat, here’s an opportunity, here’s a vision for how we collectively get there’.</p>
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<p>If we’d been on the right emissions reduction trajectory a decade ago, we’d have more time to deal with the problem. But we’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/failure-is-not-an-option-after-a-lost-decade-on-climate-action-the-2020s-offer-one-last-chance-158913">wasted ten years</a>. </p>
<p>Over that period, probably 20% of all of the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate/greenhouse-gases">carbon pollution</a> we’ve ever put into the atmosphere has been emitted. </p>
<p>A lot of money was made creating those emissions, and that has only benefited a few. But of course the consequences of the emissions will stay with humanity for many, many, many generations.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Introducing Climate Changers.</span></figcaption>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/group-therapy-helps-scientists-cope-with-challenging-climate-emotions-208933">Group therapy helps scientists cope with challenging 'climate emotions'</a>
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<h2>A different style of leadership</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, modern Western politics doesn’t select for great leaders. But there are a few scattered about.</p>
<p>One such example is <a href="https://100climateconversations.com/matt-kean/">Matt Kean</a> in New South Wales. In 2020, as state energy minister and treasurer during the Liberal Berejiklian government, he managed to get the Nationals, the Liberals, Labor and the Greens all supporting the same bill, on addressing climate change through clean energy. In my opinion, that is true leadership. </p>
<p>As Kean told us: </p>
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<p>What you’ve got to do if you’re going to try and solve the challenge is find those areas of common ground. […] it was about finding the big things that everyone could agree on and designing policy that brought everyone together. And I think that was the key to our success.</p>
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<p>Climate leadership requires humility. It requires listening to your political antagonists as well as your allies. </p>
<p>That sort of leadership is rare in our political system. And yet you see it in Indigenous communities and in the Pacific nations where I’ve done a lot of work over the years, that sort of leadership is much more common. Because people understand they need to be consultative. And transparent.</p>
<p>West Papuan activist and human rights lawyer, Frederika Korain, and Solomon Island Kwaio community leader and conservationist, Chief Esau Kekeubata, are shining examples. They show individual bravery and diligence, but they’re also humble and listening.</p>
<p>On the subject of leadership, they share similar sentiments with Australia’s Dharawal and Yuin custodian and community leader Paul Knight.</p>
<p>It’s about bringing other people along with you. It’s not some strong-arm thing, like you often see at our federal level, in our politics. It’s about listening, developing a consensus. It takes time, a lot of effort, and you’ll probably never get full consensus, but we’ll get most of the way there, convincing people. </p>
<p>I’ve seen Chief Esau work. He says very little in the most important meetings, but when someone says something he thinks is on the right track, he’ll say, “Oh, that’s really interesting. Can you can you tell us a bit more”. He directs the conversation. </p>
<p>So in a species like ours, that’s what true leadership consists of. Intelligence, persistence, bravery bordering on heroism sometimes, because climate change is the enemy of everyone.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/study-finds-2-billion-people-will-struggle-to-survive-in-a-warming-world-and-these-parts-of-australia-are-most-vulnerable-205927">Study finds 2 billion people will struggle to survive in a warming world – and these parts of Australia are most vulnerable</a>
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<h2>What’s holding us back?</h2>
<p>There’s a very strong relationship in Australia between political power and fossil fuels. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-walk-the-talk-on-climate-labor-must-come-clean-about-the-future-for-coal-and-gas-183641">links are interwoven</a>, with people moving <a href="https://theconversation.com/revealed-the-extent-of-job-swapping-between-public-servants-and-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-88695">from the fossil fuel industry to politics and back</a>. </p>
<p>And we still allow people to become <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/19/life-earth-wealth-megarich-spending-power-environmental-damage">extremely rich</a> at the expense of all of us. I think that’s what’s holding us back. </p>
<p>I expect those who are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/08/17/greenhouse-emissions-income-inequality/">very wealthy</a>, who have made their money in fossil fuels, imagine they’ll be able to retire to some gated community and live their life in luxury. </p>
<p>But we all depend on a strong global economy and trade, which is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/impact-climate-change-global-gdp/">under threat</a> as the climate breaks down. </p>
<p>The idea that you can somehow isolate yourself from the environment and the rest of society is one of the great failings of human imagination that has brought us so close to catastrophe.</p>
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<h2>Rise up</h2>
<p>I do see individual people rising to the occasion. And the story is usually somewhat similar: people realise they could lose something very precious. We heard it time and time again in the making of this documentary. </p>
<p>For community campaigner Jo Dodds the trigger was the Black Summer bushfires, the near-loss of her house and the loss of her neighbours’ houses. For former US Vice President Al Gore it was having his son in critical care for 30 days, having to put aside his politics and think about what his life was really about. Those sort of moments do bring out great climate leaders. Even Kean talked about bringing his newborn son home from hospital, shrouded in bushfire smoke. </p>
<p>The level of public awareness is far greater now than when I came to this issue in the early 2000s. </p>
<p>The most important thing I can do now is inspire and enable others to be climate leaders. Because we need a diversity of voices out there. We need women. We need younger people. We need people from the Pacific Islands, and First Nations people.</p>
<p>This documentary is about trying to inspire and encourage emerging leaders to give us the diversity of voices we need to make a difference. It’s never too late – we can always prevent something worse from happening. </p>
<p><em><a href="https://climatechangersmovie.com">Climate Changers</a> launches nationally with a livestreamed Q&A on September 17 and will <a href="https://climatechangersmovie.com/screenings/">screen in cinemas</a> and at community events.</em></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-urgently-need-100bn-for-renewable-energy-but-call-it-statecraft-not-industry-policy-213351">We urgently need $100bn for renewable energy. But call it statecraft, not 'industry policy'</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Flannery is Ambassador for RegenAqua, which uses seaweed and river grass to clean up wastewater before it flows out to sea and on to the Great Barrier Reef. He consults for the not-for-profit environmental charity, Odonata.
He is Chief Councillor and Founding Member of the Climate Council, Governor at WWF-Australia and Member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.</span></em></p>What makes a great climate leader and why are we not seeing more of them? I’ve been searching for good examples of climate leaders. This is the subject of our new documentary, Climate Changers.Tim Flannery, Honorary fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2108432023-09-14T19:28:02Z2023-09-14T19:28:02ZHow climate assemblies can help Canada tackle the climate crisis<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-climate-assemblies-can-help-canada-tackle-the-climate-crisis" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/">ongoing and record-breaking wildfire season</a> and the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/july-2023-sees-multiple-global-temperature-records-broken">recent heat waves around the world</a> have galvanized Western public attention to the climate crisis like never before. </p>
<p>The message is stark. </p>
<p>If we fail to rein in global warming below the 1.5 C threshold, impacts on humans and the natural environment are <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3278/nasa-study-reveals-compounding-climate-risks-at-two-degrees-of-warming/">poised to worsen</a> as extreme weather events overlap with increased frequency. What is needed, according to the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2023/03/20/press-release-ar6-synthesis-report/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, is an urgent, integrated effort to reduce carbon emissions while adapting to the impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, Canada has <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/environment-commissioner-report-failure-to-failure-1.6262523">consistently failed</a> to make a significant contribution to this broader effort. And this failure is due, in no small part to political polarization and a corresponding inability of governments to follow through on high-level commitments. We argue that <a href="https://knoca.eu/what-is-a-climate-assembly/">climate assemblies</a> can be a powerful tool in moving past these limitations and driving meaningful action on climate policy, if designed and executed thoughtfully.</p>
<h2>Canada and the climate crisis</h2>
<p>Canada’s contributions to tackling climate change <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada/">are off the mark</a>. Although overall emissions are beginning to trend downward, Canada’s current policies — even if fully implemented — are consistent with a 4 C warming scenario, which is far beyond the recommended 1.5 C scenario.</p>
<p>The challenges of climate policy are exacerbated by Canada’s political context as an oil and gas producing country. Indeed, many Canadians are <a href="https://www.uottawa.ca/research-innovation/positive-energy/publications/polarization-over-energy-climate-canada-oil-and-gas">polarized along party lines</a> when it comes to key tensions concerning economic and climate policy, including when it comes to phasing out oil and gas, and how it relates to Canada’s future economy. </p>
<p>Additionally, when it comes to climate policy, many Canadians <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106958">lack confidence</a> in their provincial and federal governments, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/canadians-are-concerned-about-climate-change-yet-demonstrate-low-awareness-and-low-hope-action">and are pessimistic</a> that sufficient progress will be made in the near future. </p>
<h2>Climate assemblies</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su132011272">Climate assemblies</a> are part of a broader family of democratic innovations referred to as “deliberative mini-publics.” They gather a representative slice of a given population selected through a lottery to study, deliberate and make recommendations about a specific climate-related topic. </p>
<p>Climate assemblies have been used in many jurisdictions, <a href="https://knoca.eu/map-of-national-assemblies/">particularly in Europe</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/citizens-assemblies-how-to-bring-the-wisdom-of-the-public-to-bear-on-the-climate-emergency-119117">Citizens' assemblies: how to bring the wisdom of the public to bear on the climate emergency</a>
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<p>For example, <a href="https://webarchive.nrscotland.gov.uk/20220321134004/https:/www.climateassembly.scot/full-report">Scotland’s Climate Assembly</a> brought together 106 individuals from 2020-21 to deliberate about how Scotland could address the climate emergency in an equitable and effective manner. Participants generated 81 recommendations that included introducing carbon land taxes to eliminating frequent flyer bonuses.</p>
<p>Climate assemblies’ distinctive blend of characteristics <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.759">gives them many advantages</a> over other political institutions. With lottery selection, participants are less likely to represent political or special interests, enabling them to be more impartial and adopt a longer-term perspective that takes account of future generations.</p>
<p>By learning from each other, and from experts and stakeholders, participants develop more nuanced understandings of scientific and broader public perspectives that they can incorporate into their recommendations. </p>
<p>Bodies like climate assemblies are among the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/02633957211024474">most trustworthy institutions</a> on highly charged topics, and public engagement with their outputs can boost trust in other political institutions. When they are used as part of policymaking processes, people see those processes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00323217221137444">as more even-handed</a> and are more inclined to accept outcomes that are undesirable to them. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-make-climate-action-popular-169593">How to make climate action popular</a>
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<p>Climate assemblies can have many positive outcomes. They can be a <a href="https://www.involve.org.uk/news-opinion/projects/climate-assembly-members-think-and-act-differently-climate-two-years">transformative experience for participants</a> by improving political engagement, adding to knowledge and encouraging positive behavioural changes. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1777928">recommendations can be more ambitious</a> than those advanced by governments and attract a <a href="https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03265053/document">high level of public support</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, not all climate assemblies to date <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03218-6">have had a pronounced impact</a> on policy and broader public engagement. However, recent research by the Knowledge Network on Climate Assemblies has <a href="https://knoca.eu/news/new-knoca-report-climate-assemblies-emerging-trends-challenges-and-opportunities/">distilled many lessons</a> aimed at making climate assemblies more impactful. </p>
<p>These include improving communications with the broader public, integrating the assembly and its outputs into the appropriate policymaking process, and selecting tasks aligned with the strengths of climate assemblies.</p>
<h2>Leveraging climate assemblies in Canada</h2>
<p>While Canada has a rich tradition of employing public assemblies on topics like <a href="https://citizensassembly.arts.ubc.ca/">electoral reform</a>, climate assemblies have not yet garnered much use. Important exceptions are the assemblies that were part of the Alberta Climate Dialogue initiative, including the <a href="https://www.albertaclimatedialogue.ca/">Citizens’ Panel on Edmonton’s Energy and Climate Challenges</a>.</p>
<p>Canadian governments at all levels could use climate assemblies to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2020.591844">perform a range of functions</a>, from providing advice on specific policy proposals to holding policymakers to account. We propose two key functions for Canadian climate assemblies.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Reflections on the Citizens’ Panel on Edmonton’s Energy and Climate Challenges produced by Alberta Climate Dialogue.</span></figcaption>
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<p>First, they could be used to advise on the development and implementation of municipal climate strategies. Municipalities in Canada face <a href="https://imfg.munkschool.utoronto.ca/report/climate-policy/">significant barriers</a> to implementing Canada’s climate commitments. This is despite the important role they play in decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to extreme weather events. </p>
<p>Indeed, some have argued that climate change policies should “<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/adv/article-in-the-face-of-climate-change-municipalities-take-the-lead/">trickle up</a>” from local governments, who are less constrained by political factors and freer to experiment with innovative solutions, rather than “trickle down” from other levels of government. For example, municipal governments could use climate assemblies to assess local impacts of different climate change scenarios and <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/services-payments/water-environment/environmentally-friendly-city-initiatives/resilientto/">develop comprehensive resilience strategies</a>.</p>
<p>Second, climate assemblies can be used to hold policymakers and politicians to account. A lack of sufficient transparency and accountability are long-standing challenges at the provincial and federal levels due to deficiencies in their <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_otp_201803_e_42883.html">monitoring and reporting systems</a>. Climate assemblies could be tasked with scrutinizing missed climate targets and critically appraising proposed remedial actions. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-tackle-the-climate-crisis-we-need-more-democracy-not-less-119265">To tackle the climate crisis we need more democracy, not less</a>
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<p>For example, at the federal level, climate assemblies could complement the work of the recently created <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050/advisory-body.html">Net-Zero Advisory Body</a>, whose responsibilities include advising the government in its ongoing efforts to reach net-zero by 2050 and engaging the broader public.</p>
<p>Climate assemblies — when designed and used effectively — can be a powerful tool to help Canadian governments break free of the inertia that has plagued climate policy for too long.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Pek receives funding from the University of Victoria's President's Chair award. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lorin Busaan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate assemblies may just provide the breakthrough required to develop popular, just and sustainable climate and energy policies.Simon Pek, Associate Professor of Business and Society, Gustavson School of Business, University of VictoriaLorin Busaan, PhD Student, Gustavson School of Business, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133512023-09-12T23:46:24Z2023-09-12T23:46:24ZWe urgently need $100bn for renewable energy. But call it statecraft, not ‘industry policy’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547695/original/file-20230912-15-5xvujr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C251%2C4912%2C3479&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/albany-wind-farm-one-most-spectacular-1442448629">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week, a diverse group of organisations called on the Australian federal government to establish a A$100 billion, ten-year policy package to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/11/investors-and-unions-press-labor-to-invest-100bn-to-compete-in-global-green-economy">turbocharge Australia’s green energy transition</a>. </p>
<p>Proposed by groups including the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Australian Conservation Foundation, Climate Energy Finance, Rewiring Australia and the Smart Energy Council, the Australian Renewable Industry Package (ARIP) would dwarf the government’s existing commitments.</p>
<p>Its proponents <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-pushed-to-create-100b-australian-inflation-reduction-act-20230907-p5e2y7">claim that by 2035</a>, the package would generate at least $300 billion annual clean export revenue and 700,000 much needed jobs, mainly in rural and regional Australia.</p>
<p>So will Australian policymakers from across the political spectrum heed this call and agree to spend big on Australia’s green energy industry capabilities?</p>
<p>If we want policymakers to unify and to act, we have to use language that widely resonates. This, we argue, must be the language of green energy statecraft, not industry policy. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1701132160726655474"}"></div></p>
<h2>A response to the US</h2>
<p>The ARIP is explicitly framed as a response to the United States’ impactful Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The act, <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/advocacy-initiatives/inflation-reduction-act">passed in August 2022</a>, is Washington’s response to its pressing geostrategic, economic, energy and environmental security challenges.</p>
<p>The IRA contains <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Guidebook.pdf">US$370 billion worth of incentives</a> for clean tech and is estimated to spur <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-us-is-poised-for-an-energy-revolution.html">US$2.9 trillion</a> of cumulative investment opportunity by 2032.</p>
<p>This comprehensive suite of policy supports has put Australian efforts to shame. As a result, the IRA is now drawing much needed <a href="https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/about/press-room/beware-ira-eating-australia-renewable-hydrogen-lunch-240223.html">green energy investment away from Australia</a>. Given the support on offer, it is no surprise US manufacturing spending has <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS">nearly doubled</a> in the last 12 months, while Australia remains <a href="https://www.bca.com.au/australia_s_investment_drought">stuck in the investment slow lane</a>.</p>
<p>Even more worrying for Australia is the fact the US is not the only rapid mover in the green energy space. A number of middle powers more similar to us in capacity – such as <a href="https://www.energymonitor.ai/policy/canadas-ira-response-an-80bn-clean-energy-plan/">Canada</a> and <a href="https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20230513-109457/">Japan</a> – have also announced hugely ambitious green energy investment packages that leave Australia lagging. </p>
<p>There is no question Australia needs the ARIP, and needs it urgently.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-a-national-renewables-approach-or-some-states-like-nsw-will-miss-out-121192">We need a national renewables approach, or some states – like NSW – will miss out</a>
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<h2>Industry policy – Australia’s dirtiest word</h2>
<p>In arguing for a new big renewables push, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Next-industrial-revolution-Grattan-report.pdf">some proponents</a> have couched it in the language of a “new industry policy”. But this language is problematic for two main reasons. </p>
<p>First, this language in Australia is highly politicised and divisive. Since the 1980s, “industry policy” has arguably become one of the <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057%20/9781137028303_14">most misused and abused terms</a> in our nation’s political discourse.</p>
<p>To even utter the words “industry policy” is often enough to spark fierce ideological objection, or to cause people’s eyes to glaze over with disinterest, disillusionment or both. In this sense, the term has become the ultimate thought blocker and conversation stopper.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, such reactions make it almost impossible to have a sensible national debate about what effective industry policy actually looks like. For its many detractors “industry policy” means <a href="http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/07/29/australia-must-leapfrog-the-partisan-divide-for-the-future-of-freer-trade-and-prosperity/">protectionism and picking winners</a>, and should therefore be avoided at all costs. </p>
<p>This unsophisticated view ignores the fact that in countries that have historically practised highly effective and strategic industry policy – including our northeast Asian neighbours of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – “protectionism” and “picking winners” was far from the norm. </p>
<p>Indeed, because of the goal orientation of East Asian policymakers, <a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501703102/developmental-mindset/">who wanted to catch up</a> with developed countries extremely quickly, industry policy was a highly disciplined affair tied to stringent performance incentives.</p>
<p>In this context, East Asian governments did not pick winners. Rather, winning firms self-selected by opting into government support programs, and by then outperforming competitors to keep earning that support.</p>
<p>By contrast, in Australia “industry policy” has become a highly politicised and partisan affair. For this reason, calls for industry policy often fall on deaf ears, and do more to divide policymakers and business leaders than unite them.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/industrial-policy-is-back-on-the-agenda-and-its-never-been-needed-more-than-it-is-now-119120">Industrial policy is back on the agenda -- and it's never been needed more than it is now</a>
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<h2>Towards ‘statecraft’, not industry policy</h2>
<p>But there is another, even more compelling reason for advocates of the renewables package to avoid the language of “industry policy”. The term doesn’t adequately capture the kinds of policies our competitors – both rivals and partners – are <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/developmental-environmentalism-9780192897794">now enacting in the green energy space</a>, or the kind of response we require.</p>
<p>Instead, Australia needs to embrace “<a href="https://asiasociety.org/australia/become-renewable-energy-superpower-australia-must-match-its-strategic-vision-new-green-energy">green energy statecraft</a>”. </p>
<p>Such statecraft <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/229483-australias-national-security-mandates-a-new-type-of-green-energy-statecraft/">involves bold government initiatives</a> to build, grow and dominate the high-technology markets essential to the green transition, and to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09692290.2019.1655084">fend off or outflank rival powers</a>, be they economic, geo-strategic or both.</p>
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<p>Green energy statecraft is different from plain old energy policy, or even “industry policy”. Its focus is squarely on building new industries with the intention of ensuring success in hyper-competitive global markets and, simultaneously, bolstering national security.</p>
<p>We argue that in recent years, the most significant obstacle to Australia’s success in the green energy arena has been the prevailing policymaking mindset: viewing the green energy shift principally as an energy and climate policy challenge, rather than statecraft.</p>
<p>With national security motivations at play, governments that practice green energy statecraft create bold visions for new industries like green hydrogen, green steel and bioenergy. They set clear production, export and, most importantly, technology-upgrading targets. They also mobilise all available financial incentives and policy instruments to ensure these targets are met.</p>
<p>To become a green energy superpower, Australia needs to <a href="https://asiasociety.org/australia/become-renewable-energy-superpower-australia-must-match-its-strategic-vision-new-green-energy">match our strategic vision</a> with a new green energy statecraft. </p>
<p>Language matters. If we want policymakers to act, and if we want our calls to unite rather than divide, we need to choose our words very carefully.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Thurbon receives funding from the Australian Research Council, The Australian Department of Defence, and The Academy of Korean Studies. She has previously received funding from the Korea Foundation, the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, and The Asia Society. She sits on the Research Board of the Jubilee Australia Research Centre and is an elected member of the Executive Council of the Society for the Advancement of Socioeconomics. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander M. Hynd receives funding from the Academy of Korean Studies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hao Tan receives funding from the Australia Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project 2019-2023. He previously received fundings from the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, from Enova Community Energy Ltd, and funding from the Confucius Institute Headquarters under the "Understanding China Fellowship" in 2017.</span></em></p>The federal government has been challenged to provide $100 billion over the next ten years to boost the renewables sector. But will policymakers respond to the challenge?Elizabeth Thurbon, Professor in International Relations / International Political Economy, UNSW SydneyAlexander M. Hynd, PhD candidate, UNSW SydneyHao Tan, Associate Professor, Newcastle Business School, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105062023-08-27T13:32:46Z2023-08-27T13:32:46ZBike and EV charging infrastructure are urgently needed for a green transition<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/bike-and-ev-charging-infrastructure-are-urgently-needed-for-a-green-transition" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The green transition is happening too slowly. We are in a climate emergency and it is clear that we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by transitioning to more sustainable transportation.</p>
<p>However, without sufficient infrastructure to enable electric vehicles (EVs) or cycling for <a href="https://www.burnhamnationwide.com/final-review-blog/bike-infrastructure-key-to-healthier-cities-reduced-emissions">commuting</a>, these options will remain too inconvenient or unsafe for most. Canada’s <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now">climate obligations</a> will not be met without these infrastructure changes.</p>
<p>We just experienced the hottest July <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/july-2023-set-be-hottest-month-record">on record</a>. We cannot burn more carbon, no matter the remaining <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/">carbon budget</a>. Climate <a href="https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/photos-extreme-weather-events-2023-climate-change/">disasters around the world today</a> are dictating timelines now. Meanwhile, gas cars are needlessly on city streets, adding to traffic congestion and pollution while urban sprawl means gas <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/bike-blog/2022/aug/31/how-car-culture-colonised-our-thinking-and-our-language">car driving habits</a> expand.</p>
<p>Canada requires urgent investment in transport infrastructure and incentives to reverse this trend.</p>
<h2>Policy breakdowns</h2>
<p>Here in Toronto, a recent mayoral election provided a platform for two candidates who made election promises to close down <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/traffic-congestion-byelection-campaign-trail-1.6883005">cycling lanes</a>. Meanwhile, a lack of high-quality cycling infrastructure in the city incentivizes travel by car to the <a href="https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2020/cities-and-happiness-a-global-ranking-and-analysis/">detriment of the city’s happiness</a> and carbon budget.</p>
<p>This stands in stark contrast to a city like Copenhagen, Denmark where <a href="https://cyclingmagazine.ca/advocacy/over-60-per-cent-of-people-in-copenhagen-commute-to-work-or-school/">62 per cent of people commute by cycling</a>. A city which, by some metrics, <a href="https://www.earthtrekkers.com/copenhagen-happiest-destination-europe">may also be the happiest in the world</a>. </p>
<p>Closer to home, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-canadas-first-national-cycling-map-will-benefit-both-riders-and-public-planners-208347">cycling infrastructure remains poor</a> and bike theft rose by <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/bicycle-thefts-in-canada-soar-by-429-per-cent-during-summer-months-report-1.6467265">429 per cent in Canada this summer</a>. However, the solutions to this problem, such as bicycle lockers, are not widely enough installed and where they do exist, they are only for regular users and require a <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/services-payments/streets-parking-transportaon/cycling-in-toronto/bicycle-parking/bicycle-lockers/">reservation and monthly payments</a>. </p>
<p>Solutions such as an <a href="https://www.translink.ca/news/2021/june/translink%20launches%20new%20on-demand%20bike%20lockers">on-demand bicycle storage system</a> being piloted in Vancouver and the <a href="https://thebicyclevalet.ca/our-locations">Vancouver City Centre Bike Valet</a> show promise for nation-wide implementation but will require effort to implement at scale.</p>
<h2>Nowhere to charge</h2>
<p>Likewise, a recent survey says that <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/two-thirds-of-canadian-drivers-unlikely-to-buy-an-electric-vehicle-1.6462200">Canadians are not switching</a> to cleaner EVs partly because of a lack of charging infrastructure. In a climate emergency, bike and electric vehicle infrastructure should have been installed long ago. </p>
<p>Toronto’s mandate is to reach <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/musservices-payments/water-environment/environmentally-friendly-city-initiatives/transformto/">net zero by 2040</a>, but its efforts pale in comparison to the actions of other cities in Canada and around the world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-far-to-the-next-electric-vehicle-charging-station-and-will-i-be-able-to-use-it-heres-how-to-create-a-reliable-network-209222">How far to the next electric vehicle charging station – and will I be able to use it? Here's how to create a reliable network</a>
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<p>A variety of <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/global-ev-policy-explorer">incentives and legislation</a> are accelerating an EV transition including fee exemptions, grants and mandated targets. Brazil is proposing that all gas stations offer EV charging. </p>
<p>Ireland’s <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/oireachtas/2022/07/13/all-car-sales-will-have-to-be-electric-by-2030-to-reach-climate-targets-oireachtas-committee-told/">zero emissions office</a> is aiming for 100 per cent of new car sales to be EVs by 2030. France supports EV purchases with funding and bonuses for low income individuals. Ecuador’s public transport will be 100 per cent electric by 2025 and Sweden’s government fleet will be electrified by 2035. Colombia and South Africa are setting EV charging infrastructure minimums.</p>
<p>There are notable Canadian EV initiatives in <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/global-ev-policy-explorer">Québec and British Columbia</a>. Québec has ambitious electrification plans including expanding EV charging, funding further vehicle electrification across the province. B.C. is improving upon the Canadian national mandate by installing more EV charging stations and planning a changeover to clean vehicles. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/right-to-charge-laws-bring-the-promise-of-evs-to-apartments-condos-and-rentals-206721">Right-to-charge laws bring the promise of EVs to apartments, condos and rentals</a>
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<p>In contrast, Ontario and Toronto are without any unique innovations in electric vehicle infrastructure or policy.</p>
<h2>An electric future</h2>
<p>EVs are already addressing local air pollution around the world and reducing <a href="https://aafa.org/asthma/asthma-triggers-causes/air-pollution-smog-asthma/">health issues such as asthma</a>. Higher EV sales are also associated with higher <a href="https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/human-development-index#/indicies/HDI">human development indexes</a> (HDI). An HDI is a national measure of wealth, and a good reflection of standard of living, including health and education. Countries with higher EV sales also tend to lead worldwide in the development of environmental inventions. Healthier inventions make a <a href="https://hdr.undp.org/">better life</a>.</p>
<p>Perhaps in Sweden, France, The Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Norway and certain Canadian provinces such as Québec and B.C., the connection is clearer between switching to cleaner technologies and increasing levels of personal health and <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/happiest-countries-in-the-world">happiness</a>. Improving <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/climate-solutions/education-key-addressing-climate-change">education</a> is a catalyst for change. </p>
<p>If Canada is to meet its climate commitments, it has to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transportation. Infrastructure investments, such as for EVs and cycling, improve our quality of life and the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/080816/can-infrastructure-spending-really-stimulate-economy.asp">economy</a> at the same time. Building infrastructure is a classic approach to boosting an economy. It is also a green economic opportunity if the right choices are made.</p>
<p>Canada can start by applying well-known policy solutions and rapidly installing infrastructure nationwide. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114961">Studies have validated this recommendation</a> and additional phased-in electrical grid capacity is neither controversial nor impractical. Emissions reductions with EVs as compared to gas cars, no matter the energy fuel source, ultimately validate EVs green utility over gas powered cars. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-in-electric-vehicles-have-more-mileage-in-city-driving-rather-than-highway-driving-206564">Batteries in electric vehicles have more mileage in city driving rather than highway driving</a>
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<p>Around the world, such as in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b05264">China</a> where they have energy mix variations <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-021-02209-6">across regions</a> including coal, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seppur.2022.122063">EVs make sense</a>. Emissions reductions for Ontario have been calculated at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b01519">around 80 per cent</a> when EVs are driven. </p>
<p>The International Energy Agency offers a <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/global-ev-policy-explorer">comprehensive policy database of worldwide examples</a> for places like Toronto that are lagging on clean transportation transition policy and change. Beyond benchmarking, Canada could strive for leadership on the world stage by investing in university research and applying ambitious initiatives across the country. </p>
<p>Canada has an opportunity that should not be missed to stimulate its economy by investing in sustainable transportation infrastructure to accelerate the green transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah de Lange receives funding from SSHRC and ESRC. </span></em></p>Canada should invest in sustainable transportation infrastructure to accelerate the green transition.Deborah de Lange, Associate Professor, Global Management Studies, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2120962023-08-24T06:53:49Z2023-08-24T06:53:49ZBushfires focus public attention on climate change for months, but it’s different for storms and floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544457/original/file-20230824-19-tr3btm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C12%2C2717%2C1815&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bush-fire-close-night-47274046">VanderWolf Images, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the world warms and the climate changes, people are experiencing more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Just this year, <a href="https://theconversation.com/european-heatwave-whats-causing-it-and-is-climate-change-to-blame-209653">heatwaves blasted southern Europe</a>, the United States and China; wildfires lit up Greece, Canada and <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">Maui in Hawaii</a>; and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64061588">winter storms froze large parts of the US</a>. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-023-03601-5">new research</a> explores the connection between extreme weather events in Australia and public interest in climate change or global warming between 2009 and 2020. We found that bushfires, storms and floods tended to focus attention on climate change. But, crucially, the effect was short-lived and varied depending on the type of weather event. </p>
<p>In between extreme events, the level of interest in climate change does not appear to be increasing over time. This is despite developments in the science attributing extreme weather events to climate change, and the growing
<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2019.1687537?src=recsys">tendency of the media</a> to make these connections. </p>
<p>Climate activists and policymakers may be able to use these “focusing events” to raise awareness and harness support for stronger action. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Here’s how climate change is affecting Australian weather.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once-209214">Why are so many climate records breaking all at once?</a>
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<h2>Do bushfires, storms and floods garner attention?</h2>
<p>We collected data on extreme weather events from the <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/">Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub</a>, which is managed by the <a href="https://www.aidr.org.au/">Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience</a>. </p>
<p>We concentrated on the bushfires, storms and floods that occurred in Australia between 2008 and 2020.</p>
<p>Using the <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/">Google Trends</a> intensity index to measure people’s attention, we analysed the use of the search terms “climate change” and “global warming” in the months following each event.</p>
<p>We found more searches for climate change and global warming during the month of, and immediately after, an extreme weather event. </p>
<p>However, such heightened attention was rather short-lived. And there were differences in the intensity and duration of this attention, depending on the type of weather event. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-climate-change-is-bringing-bushfires-more-often-but-some-ecosystems-in-australia-are-suffering-the-most-211683">Yes, climate change is bringing bushfires more often. But some ecosystems in Australia are suffering the most</a>
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<p>Major bushfires generated intense and sustained interest. During the month of a major bushfire, attention to climate change increased. The level of attention was higher still one month after the bushfire, and remained elevated for about four months. </p>
<p>Extreme storms prompted the most intense search activity but the effect did not last long. Attention to climate change dissipated one month after the storm. </p>
<p>Major flooding events did not appear to generate significant attention to climate change. This suggests Australians are more likely to think of climate change in terms of its tendency to cause hotter, drier weather, and less inclined to appreciate how it can cause wetter weather as well. </p>
<p>Although there is a growing trend within the media to underscore the connection between extreme weather events and climate change over the past decade, this does not seem to be generating more climate attention. For instance, while the Black Summer bushfires drove an exceptional uptick in climate attention, the same occurred during the Black Saturday bushfires a decade earlier.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-why-climate-change-isnt-always-to-blame-for-extreme-rainfall-206958">Here's why climate change isn't always to blame for extreme rainfall</a>
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<h2>It’s worth paying attention to attention</h2>
<p>Australia has been described as “<a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/climate-change-and-the-end-of-australia-238860/">the petri-dish of climate change</a>”. Our continent is prone to a variety of severe climate impacts such as droughts, floods, fires, storms and coral bleaching, and yet we’re also one of the world’s worst <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2021.1905394">climate laggards</a>.</p>
<p>Understanding how Australians respond to extreme weather events could serve as a much-needed catalyst for national climate progress. </p>
<p>But increased climate ambition is not guaranteed to flow from these destructive events. That’s because climate attention is quite short-lived, and not always as intense as one might hope. </p>
<p>We believe our research can help activists and policymakers capitalise on the increased intensity and duration of public interest in climate change following extreme events and translate that attention into a sustained appetite for climate policy action. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fear-and-wonder-podcast-how-scientists-attribute-extreme-weather-events-to-climate-change-203559">Fear and Wonder podcast: how scientists attribute extreme weather events to climate change</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Crellin receives funding from Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert MacNeil does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Public interest in climate change and global warming peaks after bushfires and lasts for months, research reveals. But Australians do not respond to storms and floods in the same way.Christopher Crellin, PhD Student / FNRS Aspirant, Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain)Robert MacNeil, Lecturer in Environmental Politics, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114852023-08-17T18:00:56Z2023-08-17T18:00:56ZA carbon tax on investment income could be more fair and make it less profitable to pollute – a new analysis shows why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543299/original/file-20230817-15-9p8mxz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1575%2C0%2C2161%2C1402&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Investor pressure could drive down greenhouse gas emissions.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/businessman-partnership-making-handshake-agreement-royalty-free-image/1548518397">Tippapatt/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>About 10 years ago, a very thick book written by a French economist became a surprising bestseller. It was called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_in_the_Twenty-First_Century">“Capital in the 21st Century</a>.” In it, Thomas Piketty traces the history of income and wealth inequality over the past couple of hundred years.</p>
<p>The book’s insights struck a chord with people who felt a growing sense of economic inequality but didn’t have the data to back it up. I was one of them. It made me wonder, how much carbon pollution is being generated to create wealth for a small group of extremely rich households? Two kids, 10 years and a Ph.D. later, I finally have some answers.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000190">new study</a>, colleagues and I investigated U.S. households’ personal responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2019. We previously studied emissions tied to consumption – <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800922003597">the stuff people buy</a>. This time, we looked at emissions used in generating people’s incomes, including investment income.</p>
<p>If you’ve ever thought about how oil company CEOs and shareholders get rich at the expense of the climate, then you’ve been thinking in an “income-responsibility” way.</p>
<p>While it may seem intuitive that those getting rich from fossil fuels bear responsibility for the emissions, very little research has been done to quantify this. Recent efforts have started to look at emissions related to household <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13383">wages in France</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00955-z">global consumption and investments of different income groups</a> and <a href="https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/carbon-billionaires-the-investment-emissions-of-the-worlds-richest-people-621446/">billionaires’ investments</a>. But no one has analyzed households across a whole country based on the emissions used to generate their full range of income, including wages, investments and retirement income, until now.</p>
<p>We linked a <a href="https://worldmrio.com/">global data set</a> of financial transactions and emissions <a href="https://cps.ipums.org/cps/">to microdata</a> from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly labor force survey, which includes respondents’ job, demographics and income from 35 categories, including wages and investments. People’s wages we connected to the emission intensity of the industries that employ them, and we based the emissions intensity of investment income on a portfolio that mirrors the overall economy.</p>
<p>The results of our analysis were eye-opening, and they could have profound implications for producing more effective and fair climate policies in the future.</p>
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<h2>A view from the top 1%</h2>
<p>Both our consumption- and income-based approaches reveal that the highest-earning households are responsible for much more than an equitable share of carbon emissions. What’s more surprising is how different the level of responsibility is depending on whether you look at consumption or income.</p>
<p>In the income-based approach, the share of national emissions coming from the top 1% of households is 15% to 17% of national emissions. That’s about 2.5 times higher than their consumer-related emissions, which is about 6%.</p>
<p>In the bottom 50% of households, however, the trend is the exact opposite: Their share of consumption-based national emissions is 31%, about two times larger than their income-based emissions of 14%.</p>
<p>Why is that?</p>
<p>A couple things are going on here. First, the lowest earning 50% of U.S. households spend all that they earn, and often more via social assistance or debt. The top income groups, on the other hand, are able to save and reinvest more of their income. </p>
<p>Second, while high-income households have very high overall spending and emissions, the carbon intensity – tons of carbon dioxide emitted per dollar – of their purchases is actually lower than that of low-income households. This is because low-income households spend a large share of their income on carbon-intensive basic necessities, like home heating and transportation. High-income households spend more of their income on less-carbon-intensive services, like financial services or higher education.</p>
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<h2>Implications for a carbon tax</h2>
<p>Our detailed comparison could help change how governments think about carbon taxes.</p>
<p>Typically, a carbon tax is applied to fossil fuels when they enter the economy. Coal, oil and gas producers then pass this tax on to consumers. <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/58f2a409-9bb7-4ee6-899d-be47835c838f">More than two dozen countries</a> have a carbon tax, and U.S. policymakers have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/24/us/politics/carbon-tax-democrats.html">proposed adding one in recent years</a>. The idea is that raising the price of these products by taxing them will get consumers to shift to cheaper and presumably less carbon-intensive alternatives.</p>
<p>But our studies show that this kind of tax would disproportionately fall on poorer Americans. Even if a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092180091731580X?casa_token=jTRcE1-pQhoAAAAA:p1QyeAg1SrXIVSJUre9vaNV2DCbVPp7RlC2UGWQN59aQwCRXq-eieRkX5alAlzyvPL7xRBRB7A">universal dividend check</a> was adopted, consumer-facing carbon taxes have no impact on saved income. Generating that income likely contributed to greenhouse gas emissions, but as long as the money is used to buy stocks rather than consumables, it is excluded from carbon taxes. So, this kind of carbon tax disproportionately affects people whose income goes primarily toward consumption.</p>
<h2>A profit-focused carbon tax</h2>
<p>What if, instead of focusing on consumption, carbon taxes addressed greenhouse gases as an outcome of profit generation?</p>
<p>The vast majority of American corporations operate under the principle of “<a href="https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/08/22/so-long-to-shareholder-primacy/">shareholder primacy</a>,” where they see a fiduciary duty to maximize profit for <a href="https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/02/11/towards-accountable-capitalism-remaking-corporate-law-through-stakeholder-governance/">their investors</a>. Products – and the greenhouse gases used to make them – are not created for the benefit of the consumer, but because the sale of those products will benefit the shareholders.</p>
<p>If carbon taxes were focused on shareholder income linked to greenhouse gas emissions rather than consumption, they could target those receiving the most economic benefits resulting from these emissions.</p>
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<h2>The impact</h2>
<p>A couple of interesting things might result, particularly if the tax was set based on the carbon intensity of the company.</p>
<p>Corporate executives and boards would have incentive to reduce emissions to lower taxes for shareholders. Shareholders would have incentive, out of self-interest, to pressure companies to do so. </p>
<p>Investors would also have incentive to shift their portfolios to less-polluting companies to avoid the tax. Pension and private wealth fund managers would have incentive to divest from carbon-polluting investments out of a fiduciary duty to their clients. To keep the tax focused on large shareholders, I could see retirement accounts being excluded from the tax, or a minimum asset threshold before the tax applies.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Jared Starr explains the new study’s findings and the implications.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Revenue generated from the carbon tax could help fund <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2022?gclid=CjwKCAjw5_GmBhBIEiwA5QSMxFUxJNkRuBfUZTRp8JK00-u1lzHYGnuW9xeCHlS-sr6d5-FknWIScRoCawcQAvD_BwE">adaptation</a> and the transition to clean energy.</p>
<p>Instead of putting the responsibility for cutting emissions on consumers, maybe policies should more directly tie that responsibility to corporate executives, board members and investors who have the most knowledge and power over their industries. Based on our analysis of the consumption and income benefits produced by greenhouse gas emissions, I believe a shareholder-based carbon tax is worth exploring.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211485/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared Starr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Taxing consumption that contributes to climate change hits the poor the hardest, while overlooking the huge profits tied to greenhouse gas emissions.Jared Starr, Sustainability Scientist, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116052023-08-16T20:05:47Z2023-08-16T20:05:47Z‘The world has changed’: why Anthony Albanese must up the ante on climate policy at Labor’s national conference<p>Party members, unions and politicians will meet in Brisbane on Thursday when Labor’s national conference begins. The event is where Labor’s federal policy direction is hashed out. This year, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be under pressure from within the party to boost Labor’s action on climate change.</p>
<p>This is federal Labor’s first conference since forming government in May last year. Following that win, there was enormous goodwill for the party’s political platform – both from within Labor’s membership and the broader community. The sentiment extended to Labor’s modest promised action on climate change, which seemed like a giant leap forward after the climate policy desert of the Coalition years.</p>
<p>Since the election, however, the world has changed. The climate emergency is accelerating with breathtaking speed. And the frightening frequency of climate-related disasters further validate the agendas of the Greens and the teal independents as they push the government for ambitious climate action. </p>
<p>So let’s take a look at where the Albanese government stands on climate policy ahead of its national conference, and where it needs to go before the next election. </p>
<h2>What has Labor done on climate change?</h2>
<p>Labor’s climate action has been a vast improvement on the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/morrison-governments-climate-record-deemed-a-catastrophic-failure/">very low bar</a> set by the previous Coalition government. But there’s plenty of room for improvement.</p>
<p>For example, Labor <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/albanese-government-passes-climate-change-bill-house-representatives">enshrined into law</a> an emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. But as others have <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-2030-climate-target-betters-the-morrison-government-but-australia-must-go-much-further-much-faster-173066">noted</a>, more cuts are needed for Australia to do its share on emissions reduction under the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Labor’s strengthening of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-28/safeguard-mechanism-climate-change-policy-explained/102151992">safeguard mechanism</a> will go some way to curbing industrial emissions. But the government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/australias-climate-policies-dont-match-its-big-talk-cop27-2022-11-20/">continues</a> to support new mining and energy projects.</p>
<p>This week, thousands of Labor’s rank-and-file members will use the national conference to pressure Albanese on climate action. The push, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/thousands-of-labor-members-take-climate-challenge-to-albanese-20230813-p5dw5m.html">backed by 350</a> Labor branches, will call for a windback on land clearing and native forest logging (which would help reach emissions-reduction goals), and more subsidies for renewable energy.</p>
<p>That’s not the only internal pressure Albanese faces, however. The Construction Forestry Maritime Mining and Energy Union is reportedly set to oppose the push to abandon native forest harvesting.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once-209214">Why are so many climate records breaking all at once?</a>
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<h2>The bigger picture</h2>
<p>Aside from its internal juggling act, Labor must significantly enhance its climate credentials before the next election to fight off teal independents and the Greens.</p>
<p>Last year’s <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/watershed-election">watershed federal election</a> resulted in six progressive “teal” female independents entering parliament, by displacing male Liberal Party incumbents from inner-city blue ribbon seats. The new MPs joined independent Warringah MP Zali Steggall, who was elected in 2019.</p>
<p>The wave of teal victories was seen in part as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/21/teal-independents-punish-liberal-moderates-for-inaction-on-climate-crisis-and-integrity-commission">punishment</a> for the Liberals over climate inaction. </p>
<p>The Greens party, too, had its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/australian-greens-hails-best-result-ever-with-dramatic-gains-in-lower-house-and-senate">best-ever</a> federal election result. </p>
<p>It won four lower house seats – Melbourne, which party leader Adam Bandt retained, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-2022-election-results-coalition-routed-in-cities-and-in-western-australia-can-they-recover-in-2025-184755">three</a> new seats in inner Brisbane. The party <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-28/greens-win-brisbane-seat-electorate-federal-election/101104170">says</a> the success gives it a mandate to push the government harder on climate change.</p>
<p>Since being elected, the Greens and the crossbench – including the teals and independent senator David Pocock – have all pressured Labor to strengthen its climate agenda.</p>
<p>For instance, the crossbenchers and the Greens secured <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-04/climate-bill-passes-lower-house-greens-teal-tweaks/101299160">amendments</a> to Labor’s Climate Change Bill. <a href="https://www.davidpocock.com.au/a_step_towards_more_credible_climate_policy">Pocock</a> and the Greens also won changes to the so-called “safeguard mechanism”, which applies to emissions from Australia’s most polluting companies.</p>
<p>The crossbench pressure on the Albanese government is unlikely to let up. And Labor MPs could be battling <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-liberals-suffer-a-body-blow-this-time-in-2025-it-will-be-labor-s-turn-20220522-p5anij">new teal</a> challengers at the 2025 election.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Coalition has given up on providing any real opposition on climate and energy policy – putting most of its bets on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/aug/02/peter-dutton-has-reached-into-the-weeds-of-the-climate-wars-and-pulled-out-nuclear-energy-its-beyond-ludicrous">irrational</a> support for nuclear power. </p>
<h2>Labor’s climate challenge</h2>
<p>Australians have watched with alarm in recent weeks as the Northern Hemisphere summer went haywire. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/08/july-2023-worlds-hottest-month-climate-crisis-scientists-confirm">Air</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-19/nsw-warm-oceans-waters-earth-el-nino-beach/102236916">ocean</a> temperature records have tumbled and deadly wildfires have destroyed vast swathes of land from the Mediterranean to <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">Hawaii</a>. </p>
<p>Australia, after an unseasonably <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-australia-having-such-a-warm-winter-a-climate-expert-explains-210693">warm winter</a>, is heading into a hot, dry <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-04/world-meteorological-organisation-declares-el-nino/102560580">El Niño summer</a>.</p>
<p>What’s more, climate change is becoming a key component in the cost-of-living crisis. Insurance premiums have reportedly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/14/fears-many-australians-will-abandon-home-insurance-as-premiums-jump-50-in-high-risk-areas">jumped 50%</a> in the last year in high-risk parts of Australia, such as flood-prone areas.</p>
<p>Labor was bound to the climate policies it took to the last election. But there’s now a persuasive argument that climate conditions have dramatically shifted – and more radical policies are needed. </p>
<p>National Labor party conferences do not hold the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-foes-are-in-furious-agreement-and-that-s-infuriating-20230811-p5dvve.html">primacy</a> they once did, because the caucus and cabinet now hold more sway. But they remain the key avenue for grassroots members to influence party policy.</p>
<p>More significant government measures on climate change would satisfy the thousands of rank-and-file Labor members who want action. It would also help shore up Labor against progressive challengers at the next election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">'Australia is sleepwalking': a bushfire scientist explains what the Hawaii tragedy means for our flammable continent</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The climate emergency is accelerating with breathtaking speed.
The Greens and the teals are breathing down Labor’s neck. At this federal Labor conference, Albanese must go further on climate policy.Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060002023-08-08T20:04:13Z2023-08-08T20:04:13ZDarwin’s ‘sustainable’ Middle Arm project reveals Australia’s huge climate policy gamble<p>Protesters <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/aug/08/australia-politics-live-doctors-rally-gas-northern-territory-beetaloo-middle-arm-teals-greens-fracking-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-indigenous-voice-question-time?page=with:block-64d16ac58f082f4d589154d7#block-64d16ac58f082f4d589154d7">rallied</a> at Parliament House in Canberra on Tuesday, railing against Darwin’s controversial <a href="https://middlearmprecinct.nt.gov.au/about-the-precinct">Middle Arm venture</a> which critics say would benefit the gas industry.</p>
<p>The project has been thrust into the headlines of late. Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/01/natasha-fyles-national-press-club-northern-territory-nt-middle-arm-development">drew the ire</a> of critics last week in a speech to the National Press Club where she insisted her government was “not for turning” on the project.</p>
<p>Fyles describes Middle Arm as a “sustainable development precinct”. But that claim is highly questionable. The site is already home to two gas facilities, and more are planned. Meanwhile, the NT is pursuing a goal of net zero emissions by 2050 and has committed to “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/04/nt-government-accused-of-failing-to-address-climate-risks-before-approving-beetaloo-basin-gas-project">no net increase</a>” in emissions from fracking. So what’s going on?</p>
<p>It comes down to a new buzz-term in policymaking: “circular economy”. We’ve heard it applied to realms such as plastics and food waste. It’s increasingly being <a href="https://www.cceguide.org/guide/">applied to carbon emissions</a>, to describe an imagined scenario where carbon released from one source is used or stored by others to create a “closed loop” system.</p>
<p>But as our <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/area.12893">new research</a> finds, this path is a massive gamble. Such offsetting relies on projects and technologies that do not yet exist, or are not yet feasible at scale. In effect, the Middle Arm project, and others like it, are grand experiments with our climate.</p>
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<h2>The ‘circular’ economy</h2>
<p>Over the past two decades, international climate policy has increasingly shifted towards a circular model of managing carbon emissions. We’ve seen this happening not just in Australia, but places such as Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union and Saudi Arabia.</p>
<p>The strategy doesn’t seek to reach net-zero simply by pumping less carbon into the atmosphere – for example, by deploying renewable energy. It also involves activities that remove, capture, store or use carbon, therefore “offsetting” or cancelling out emissions from other sources.</p>
<p>Proponents of the strategy characterise it as a simple matter of inputs (emissions) and outputs (offsets) cancelling each other out. But implementing the model is actually very messy, as our <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/area.12893">new paper</a> shows. </p>
<p>We analysed how the federal and NT governments have sought to implement circular carbon policies, including through the Middle Arm development. </p>
<p>Due to its existing gas infrastructure and proximity to Darwin, this peninsula has long been the target of grand development plans. In July 2020, the NT government announced it would create an <a href="https://ntrebound.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/908314/terc-first-report.pdf">industrial petrochemical precinct</a> there to use gas from the Beetaloo and offshore fields. </p>
<p>The following year, the hub was rebranded as a “sustainable development precinct”. References to “petrochemicals” were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-26/nt-petrochemicals-deleted-middle-arm-website-greenwashing/101700374">abandoned</a>. The NT government now frequently talks up the site’s potential for hydrogen and carbon-capture facilities, and <a href="https://middlearmprecinct.nt.gov.au">says</a> the precinct will be:</p>
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<p>largely powered by renewables, master-planned to achieve a circular economy approach of sustainable and responsible production and will use technology to achieve low-to-zero emissions.</p>
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<p>The federal government has <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/25-billion-infrastructure-boost-northern-territory">committed</a> more than A$1.5 billion to the development.</p>
<h2>‘Sustainable’ claims called into question</h2>
<p>There are serious doubts over Middle Arm’s environmental credentials.</p>
<p>For example, internal government documents <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/darwins-sustainable-middle-arm-development-is-key-to-huge-fossil-fuel-projects-documents-show">make clear</a> the precinct is “seen as a key enabler” of the gas industry.</p>
<p>One confirmed future tenant will be Tamboran Resources, which plans to frack and drill for gas in the Beetaloo Basin. Tamboran intends to build a gas plant in the precinct. Federal crossbenchers, including Warringah MP Zali Steggall, have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/darwins-sustainable-middle-arm-development-is-key-to-huge-fossil-fuel-projects-documents-show">questioned why</a> public money is being spent on infrastructure “for a private gas company to make record profits from exports”.</p>
<p>What’s more, low-emissions projects planned for the precinct rely on highly speculative technologies.</p>
<p>A carbon-capture and storage facility has been mooted at the site. Announcing the project in 2021, the NT government <a href="https://innovation.nt.gov.au/news/2021/world-class-low-emissions-hub">called it</a> a “a game-changer”. But it neglected to mention that the project relies on unproven technology and has no timeline or guarantee of delivery. </p>
<p>For examples of this, we need only look to Chevron’s Gorgon gas project in Western Australia. The project was supposed to capture at least 80% of CO₂ from the gas it produces. After a three-year delay, carbon capture and storage began in 2019 but has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/16/gas-giant-chevron-falls-further-behind-on-carbon-capture-targets-for-gorgon-gasfield">consistently</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/21/emissions-wa-gas-project-chevron-carbon-capture-system-pilbara-coast">failed</a> to reach its targets.</p>
<p>Claims that Middle Arm would substantially be powered by renewable energy are also in doubt. The Sun Cable solar project – once billed as the largest solar energy development in the southern hemisphere – was <a href="https://industry.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/935382/sun-cable-ess-ip-submission.pdf">planning</a> a battery at the site. But in 2023 the company went into <a href="https://suncable.energy/sun-cable-enters-voluntary-administration-strong-development-progress-and-portfolio-provides-opportunity-for-refreshed-alignment-between-company-and-investor-objectives/">administration</a> and its future is unclear. </p>
<p>Questions also surround Middle Arm’s two proposed green hydrogen projects. Neither company involved has ever built a green hydrogen facility. One of the companies, Total Eren, intends to use <a href="https://energyclubnt.com.au/news/12883669">solar energy</a> from a facility that has not yet been assessed let alone approved for construction.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/opening-10-new-oil-and-gas-sites-is-a-win-for-fossil-fuel-companies-but-a-staggering-loss-for-the-rest-of-australia-189374">Opening 10 new oil and gas sites is a win for fossil fuel companies – but a staggering loss for the rest of Australia</a>
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<img alt="A map of the proposed Middle Arm precinct on Darwin Harbour." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A map of the proposed Middle Arm precinct on Darwin Harbour.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Land Development Corporation</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Offsets won’t save us, either</h2>
<p>As part of its “decarbonisation” plan, the NT is <a href="https://ntrebound.nt.gov.au/publications/final-report">set to grow</a> its carbon offset industries.</p>
<p>And in 2021, the then Coalition government released a <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-long-term-emissions-reduction-plan">climate plan</a> in which more than half the carbon savings would be achieved via carbon offsets, as well as unspecified “technology breakthroughs”.</p>
<p>Carbon offsets are used by polluters to compensate for their emissions. It involves buying “carbon credits” from organisations that have undertaken activities to reduce emissions.</p>
<p>Carbon offsets are contentious because they allow companies to keep pumping out carbon. And ensuring carbon credits represent genuine emissions reduction can be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01592-2">difficult</a>.</p>
<p>We’ve seen this in Australia, where the integrity of certain carbon methods has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-blew-the-whistle-on-australias-central-climate-policy-heres-what-a-new-federal-government-probe-must-fix-185894">questioned</a>. An independent review of the overall scheme concluded it was essentially sound, but critics <a href="https://theconversation.com/chubb-review-of-australias-carbon-credit-scheme-falls-short-and-problems-will-continue-to-fester-197401">say</a> key questions remain. Further, there are <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/03/19/angus-taylors-35-billion-carbon-blunder/164760840013513">signs</a> we do not have enough credits to meet market demand.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>The goal of Australian governments to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 increasingly relies on gambits such as the Middle Arm precinct and speculative methods for offsetting and burying emissions. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the world has just experienced its hottest month on record. And in temperate Australia, a hot, dry El Nino summer is approaching. </p>
<p>At a time like this, we must focus on achieving genuine emissions reductions, rather than playing risky games with our climate. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/limitless-energy-how-floating-solar-panels-near-the-equator-could-power-future-population-hotspots-210557">'Limitless' energy: how floating solar panels near the equator could power future population hotspots</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206000/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Neale receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and the Country Fire Authority.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kari Dahlgren receives research funding from CitiPower, Powercor, and United Energy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Kearnes receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with the NSW Geographical Society. </span></em></p>The project’s environmental credentials rely on highly speculative technologies, making Middle Arm a grand experiment with our climate.Timothy Neale, Senior Research Fellow, Deakin UniversityKari Dahlgren, Research Fellow Emerging Technologies Research Lab, Monash UniversityMatthew Kearnes, Professor, Environment & Society, School of Humanities and Languages, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2109172023-08-03T15:18:36Z2023-08-03T15:18:36ZRishi Sunak’s green backtracking contrasts strongly with previous prime ministers’ efforts<p>UK prime minister Rishi Sunak appears to be wavering on “<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-mays-net-zero-smackdown/">net zero by 2050</a>” that Theresa May successfully passed through parliament with barely a cough of disapproval in 2019.</p>
<p>Sunak is now talking about more <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/jul/24/rishi-sunak-labour-housebuilding-michael-gove-uk-politics-live-latest-updates">“proportionate and pragmatic”</a> government climate policies, while also <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hundreds-of-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-licences-to-boost-british-energy-independence-and-grow-the-economy-31-july-2023">announcing plans</a> to issue at least 100 licenses for new oil and gas projects in the North Sea.</p>
<p>This shift comes at a time when British holidaymakers are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/24/uk-tourists-rhodes-wildfires-luggage-hotels">fleeing wildfires</a> in Rhodes and Corfu, and so many <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66229065">climate records are tumbling</a> that it’s hard to keep up. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cen.uk.com/">Conservative Environment Network</a>, an independent forum for conservatives who support net zero, and others <a href="https://act.greenpeace.org/page/131486/-/1">including Greenpeace</a>, are trying to stiffen his spine. But Sunak appears minded to appease those on the “right” who are opposed to anything green.</p>
<p>This stance might seem surprising. But taking a global and historical perspective provides some context to the situation.</p>
<h2>The UK story</h2>
<p>The UK’s modern environment movement can be dated back to 1969 when the then prime minister, Harold Wilson, gave the <a href="https://allouryesterdays.info/2022/09/28/september-29-1969-british-prime-minister-harold-wilson-blah-blah-second-industrial-revolution-blah-blah-pollution-blah-blah/">first ever speech</a> to a party congress that mentioned “the environment”. Visiting the US the following year, Wilson proposed a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1970/01/26/archives/wilson-begins-trip-to-washington.html">new special relationship</a> based on environmental protection. </p>
<p>Far from decrying this, Conservative opposition leader Edward Heath accused Wilson of being too slow. When Heath became prime minister in 1970, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jul/05/Whitehall.uk">he created</a> a huge Department of the Environment.</p>
<p>While “the environment” faded from the headlines thanks to the oil price spike of 1973, high inflation and other issues, neither the Tories nor Labour backtracked. In 1979, new prime minister Margaret Thatcher <a href="https://allouryesterdays.info/2023/06/28/june-29-1979-thatcher-uses-carbon-dioxide-build-up-to-shill-for-nuclear-power/">even mentioned the greenhouse effect</a> while in Tokyo for a G7 meeting. </p>
<p>However, Thatcher took an obstructive line on acid rain. This was something Sweden was especially exercised about, since <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/307087a0.pdf">sulphur from British coal stations</a> was altering its lakes and rivers.</p>
<p>It was only in 1988, after persistent lobbying from scientists and diplomats that the lady was for turning. Her <a href="https://allouryesterdays.info/2022/09/26/september-27-1988-margaret-thatcher-comes-out-as-a-lentil-eating-greenie/">speech to the Royal Society</a> (a fellowship of eminent scientists) about the “experiment” humanity was conducting in tipping so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/444002a">regarded as the starting point</a> for modern climate politics. </p>
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<img alt="Margaret Thatcher making a speech." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540982/original/file-20230803-21-4mxua0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540982/original/file-20230803-21-4mxua0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540982/original/file-20230803-21-4mxua0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540982/original/file-20230803-21-4mxua0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540982/original/file-20230803-21-4mxua0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540982/original/file-20230803-21-4mxua0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540982/original/file-20230803-21-4mxua0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Thatcher’s speech to the Royal Society in 1988 is regarded as the starting point for modern climate politics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-july-1-hon-margaret-thatcher-31562749">David Fowler/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Thanks to switching from coal to gas in the 1990s, and moving industry offshore, the UK could for a long-time boast of reducing its emissions and <a href="https://allouryesterdays.info/2022/01/25/january-25-1994-uk-government-releases-sustainable-development-strategy/">speak nobly of sustainable development</a>. In 1997, Tony Blair said the UK <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tony-blair-and-global-warming/">would go further</a> in cutting emissions than whatever target was set at the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/marking-kyoto-protocol%E2%80%99s-25th-anniversary">UN conference in Kyoto</a>, the first agreement by rich nations to cut greenhouse gases. This was met with few grumbles from the Tories.</p>
<p>In the late 2000s there was a fierce <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/padm.12046">“competitive consensus”</a> (where politicians try to outbid the their competitor’s bid for votes and virtue) around passing a Climate Change Act. The then new Conservative leader, David Cameron, had <a href="https://allouryesterdays.info/2022/04/20/april-20-2006-david-cameron-does-hug-a-husky-to-detoxify-the-conservative-brand/">taken a trip to the Arctic</a> and was now saying “can we have the bill please”. </p>
<p>Very few Conservative MPs voted against the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/contents">2008 Climate Change Act</a>, which set an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050 and placed restrictions on the amount of greenhouse gases the UK could emit over five-year periods.</p>
<p>Once in power, Cameron <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/bp.2015.16">supported fracking, opposed onshore wind</a>, and scrapped climate policies in a <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutting-the-green-crap-has-added-2-5bn-to-uk-energy-bills/">self-defeating effort</a> to reduce costs (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/21/david-cameron-green-crap-comments-storm">allegedly ordering aides</a> to “get rid of all the green crap”). But he did not, at least <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300863">not directly</a>, attack the Climate Change Act.</p>
<p>After the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris agreement in 2015</a>, which the UK signed, it became clear that 80% would not be enough of a target to have the UK meet its obligations to do its part to keep global warming under 2°C. And pressure built for a net zero emissions by 2050 target. This was one of Theresa May’s final acts, and was enthusiastically endorsed by all parties.</p>
<h2>So what’s gone wrong?</h2>
<p>Politicians tend to like targets that are distant, round numbers like 2050. They get the glow, without the pain of upsetting either vested interests or demanding that ordinary people change their behaviour. What we are seeing now, I believe, is a collision between what the promises were and what the immediate action has to be. </p>
<p>This is not unique to the UK. There have been periods, albeit brief, of bipartisan consensus around environmental issues in both <a href="https://allouryesterdays.info/2022/06/03/june-3-1989-liberal-party-to-outflank-labor-on-climate/">Australia</a> and the <a href="https://time.com/4874888/climate-change-politics-history/">US</a>. </p>
<p>But once in power, Conservative governments have tended to prioritise “free markets” over what they label as irksome or socialistic environmental regulation. The main motor of climate denial, and framing green concerns as like a “watermelon” (green on the outside, red on the inside) has historically been the United States.</p>
<p>One way of looking at what is happening in the UK Conservative Party now is that the same imported “culture war” tropes that gave the UK an unevidenced <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65272595">“voter registration” panic</a> in May 2023, is now turning to climate policy. This phenomenon is what was behind the <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/rishi-sunak-right-wing-think-tank-anti-protest-laws-policy-exchange/">recent Just Stop Oil action</a> at Policy Exchange, a right-wing think tank that helped draft controversial new laws cracking down on climate protesters.</p>
<p>The recent <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-green-policy-uxbridge-by-elections-b2380382.html">Uxbridge by-election result</a>, where the Conservatives’ narrow victory was driven by anger against London’s ultra-low emissions zone (an area where drivers of the highest-polluting vehicles must pay a fee), is likely to have whetted the appetite of right-wing Tory strategists. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-next-election-could-be-a-climate-change-culture-war-210351">Britain's next election could be a climate change culture war</a>
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<p>They may see this as a way of dividing Labour and either winning the next election by weaponising climate policy, or at the very least, reducing their losses to “manageable proportions”. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the emissions climb, the ice melts and the waters warm. And everyone will be holding their breath for every food harvest from here onwards.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Until January 2023, Marc Hudson was a research fellow on a project investigating the politics of industrial decarbonisation, funded by the Industrial Decarbonisation Research and Innovation Centre</span></em></p>Past prime ministers could afford to talk big on climate change – but now the impact of the environmental crisis is manifestly real, Sunak can’t afford to appease those who oppose green policies.Marc Hudson, Visiting Fellow, SPRU, University of Sussex Business School, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099542023-07-24T12:13:50Z2023-07-24T12:13:50ZGlobal shipping has a new climate strategy – it’s vague, obscure and almost noncommittal, but it may be pointing the industry in the right direction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537979/original/file-20230718-17-em1ayv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C0%2C5098%2C3403&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">International shipping accounts for about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/a-boat-carrying-cargo-with-cranes-for-lifting-up-c-royalty-free-image/83388218?phrase=+container+ship&adppopup=true">Richard Ross/The Image Book via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world’s largest shipping companies are starting to update their fleets for a greener future. Maersk received the <a href="https://maritime-executive.com/index.php/article/maersk-takes-delivery-of-world-s-first-methanol-fueled-boxship">world’s first dual-fuel methanol container ship</a> in July 2023, and <a href="https://www.manifoldtimes.com/news/dnv-orders-for-alternative-fuel-vessels-slows-down-in-march/">dozens more container ships</a> that can run on alternative fuels are currently on order.</p>
<p>The industry – responsible for <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/emissions-free-sailing-full-steam-ahead-ocean-going-shipping">about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>, more than Canada and Ireland combined – has reasons to act and to have some confidence in its multimillion-dollar investments.</p>
<p>On July 7, the 175 member countries of the <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/About/Pages/Default.aspx">International Maritime Organization</a>, a United Nations agency that regulates global shipping, agreed to <a href="https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/Documents/Resolution%20MEPC.377(80).pdf">a new climate strategy</a> that includes reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions “by or around, i.e., close to, 2050.”</p>
<p>The strategy’s language is vague, obscure and almost noncommittal. But it points the industry toward a cleaner future. <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1813">New European Union rules</a> will also soon go into effect that will significantly raise costs for ships burning highly polluting sulfur fuel oil.</p>
<p>I spent several years working in the shipping industry and follow it <a href="https://haslam.utk.edu/people/profile/don-maier/">as a researcher and analyst</a>. Here’s what I see changing.</p>
<h2>Setting their own direction</h2>
<p>The new IMO strategy does not explicitly set a new fuel standard, but it seems to indicate that less reliance on cheap, environmentally harmful, heavy-sulfur fuel oil is the best direction, and possibly less use of low-sulfur fuel oil.</p>
<p>What the strategy does is set goals to reduce international shippings’ greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% by 2030, compared with 2008 levels; by at least 70% by 2040; and to reach net-zero emissions around 2050. The IMO also commits to implement a greenhouse gas emissions-pricing mechanism – a <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shipping-unveils-blueprint-for-collecting-future-carbon-tax">carbon levy</a> or tax – by 2027, and to develop a goal-based marine fuel standard. At this time, that’s the only direction the IMO has provided regarding the emissions-pricing mechanism.</p>
<p>While the new strategy may not have been as clear or restrictive as many people hoped, the IMO may be providing the maritime industry an opportunity to set the direction itself.</p>
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<img alt="A person runs across the top of a Maersk shipping container on a smaller container ship while more containers are loaded." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537976/original/file-20230718-23-b0ibpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most of the big shippers’ fleets are less than 20 years old.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ParaguayEndofYear/a7f65eba36124890829d59be0f065dcf/photo">AP Photo/Jorge Saenz</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>A number of large ship owners and operators have already built and placed orders for container ships with <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/sea-transport/this-common-chemical-could-help-shipping-giants-start-to-decarbonize">some sort of alternative fuel use</a>, primarily methanol or liquefied natural gas, and there is some <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-hydrogen-and-can-it-really-become-a-climate-change-solution-204513">interest in hydrogen</a>. LNG is still a fossil fuel, though it’s less polluting than traditional sulfur fuel oil. Methanol, however, can be made from either natural gas or renewable sources.</p>
<p>Maersk’s new dual-fuel vessel – to be powered in part by green methanol – is small and plans to operate in the Baltic Sea, but Maersk may be using this vessel as a prototype for <a href="https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2023/06/26/maersk-orders-six-methanol-powered-vessels">larger alternative-fuel containerships</a> expected to be delivered next year. Evergreen, also among the world’s larger shipping companies, has ordered <a href="https://maritime-executive.com/article/evergreen-orders-24-methanol-fueled-ships-at-a-cost-of-nearly-5-billion">24 dual-fueled methanol ships</a>.</p>
<p>Purchases like Maersk’s and Evergreen’s are an indication that the maritime industry will be moving in the direction of greener fuels. They also indicate that the industry is willing to follow the IMO’s focus on well-to-wake emissions, meaning not just emissions from ship operations but also from fuel production.</p>
<h2>Building a supply chain</h2>
<p>The other significant challenge faced by the maritime industry is having a sufficient supply chain available to support <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ship-fuel-cost-down-from-war-peak-but-green-fallout-looms">dual-fueled</a> vessels, which can operate on alternative fuels.</p>
<p>There are currently a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319923004354?via%3Dihub">limited number of ports worldwide</a> with the necessary infrastructure to provide alternative fuels. But, here again, simple economics suggests that if there is enough demand, supply should follow.</p>
<p><iframe id="u67O1" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/u67O1/8/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>With Maersk, Evergreen and others preparing to operate more dual-fuel containerships, the industry is demonstrating demand so the green-methanol supply chain can develop, and hopefully soon. Japan recently launched its first <a href="https://maritime-executive.com/article/japan-s-first-dual-fuel-lng-bunker-ship-launched-to-expand-supply-network">dual-fueled LNG bunkering ship</a> – essentially a floating gas station – to develop the supply of LNG fuel.</p>
<h2>Not mandatory, but many countries will try</h2>
<p>The new IMO strategy has some big caveats: The goals are nonbinding, and the strategy explicitly encourages compliance when “national circumstances allow.” In other words, no nation-state will be under any legal obligation to comply.</p>
<p>The statement seems to have been included as a means to appear focused on achieving goals while placating some countries that may not be able or willing to meet the goals by 2030 or beyond.</p>
<p>It’s also unclear whether the “national circumstance” pertains to a physical nation-state, to flag registry – meaning where the ship is registered – or both. Many ships are <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2023/745686/EPRS_ATA(2023)745686_EN.pdf">registered in countries with weaker regulations</a>. Adding such language appears to say that the IMO is serious about emissions and understands that some countries may have significant challenges to meet the standards. It also gets around opposition to a carbon levy, or tax on emissions, which some delegates – <a href="https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/chinese-government-tries-to-block-carbon-levy-net-zero-pledge-at-imo">China for example</a> – adamantly opposed.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.shipmap.org" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: 10px; margin-top: 4px">Press the play button or zoom out and use the filters to see where different ship types travel. Created by <a target="_top" href="https://www.kiln.digital/">London-based data visualization studio Kiln</a> and the <a target="_top" href="http://www.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/energy">UCL Energy Institute</a><br><br></div>
<p>Many countries, such as the U.S., United Kingdom, Australia and those in the European Union, will work to meet the strategy, I believe. The EU is already launching its own carbon levy on shipping beginning in 2024.</p>
<h2>Who pays for the higher costs?</h2>
<p>One factor that the IMO, most analysts and environmentalists rarely discuss is the additional cost of using an alternative fuel.</p>
<p>By some estimates, green methanol costs three times as much as low-sulfur fuel oil. And low-sulfur fuel oil is more expensive than high-sulfur fuel oil. The maritime research company <a href="https://www.drewry.co.uk/news/news/drewry-urges-shippers-to-start-planning-for-decarbonisation-in-shipping-warns-of-up-to-14-billion-in-extra-costs">Drewry estimated</a> that switching to methanol on a well-to-wake basis would increase fuel costs by 350%, or equal to approximately an additional $1,000 for each 40-foot-long shipping container aboard. </p>
<p>Shipping lines will soon also face higher costs from the European Union if they don’t clean up their emissions. Starting in 2024, the EU Emissions Trading System will cover all cargo and passenger ship voyages in EU waters and ports involving over 5,000 gross tons, regardless of where the ship is registered. The costs to those with high emissions are expected to significantly increase the operating costs for the global shipping fleet. </p>
<p>Hecla Emissions Management, a consulting arm set up by Wilhelmsen Ship Management and Affinity Shipping, analyzed the three-year phase-in period for just the EU change and expects it to cost the shipping industry <a href="https://www.hecla-em.co/post/shipping-set-for-3-billion-plus-2024-eu-ets-bill">nearly $19 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Whether we like it or not, these additional costs will be born by the cargo owners, who will pass the costs along to their customers – and, ultimately, the consumer, meaning you and me.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Maier is affiliated with The International Association of Maritime Port Executives, the Containerization & Intermodal Institute, and the Intermodal Association of North America. </span></em></p>International shipping is a big contributor to climate change, and it doesn’t change quickly, but its companies are starting to invest in cleaner fuels.Don Maier, Associate Professor of Business, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2022332023-04-13T21:14:26Z2023-04-13T21:14:26ZHow a Supreme Court case could decide the future of Canadian climate policy<p>On the heels of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">latest United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report</a> declaring a “rapidly closing window of opportunity” to secure a liveable future, the Supreme Court of Canada recently <a href="https://scc-csc.ca/case-dossier/info/sum-som-eng.aspx?cas=40195">heard a case</a> that could decide the future of Canadian climate policy.</p>
<p>Late last year, the <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/ab/abca/doc/2022/2022abca165/2022abca165.html?autocompleteStr=Impact&autocompletePos=2">Alberta Court of Appeal said</a> the federal <a href="https://laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/i-2.75/index.html">Impact Assessment Act</a> — which seeks to minimize the environmental impacts of major economic projects — was unconstitutional because it intruded into provincial jurisdiction over natural resources development.</p>
<p>The federal government, on March 21 and 22, asked the Supreme Court of Canada to overturn the Alberta Court of Appeal’s opinion.</p>
<p>While we have to wait a year for its decision, the Supreme Court’s position is already clear — a majority of the court is poised to overturn the Alberta court’s opinion and uphold the Impact Assessment Act. The implications of the Supreme Court’s decision for <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-new-climate-plan-is-reckless-but-a-better-way-forward-is-still-possible-180846">Canadian climate policy</a>, however, are more complicated.</p>
<h2>The politics of climate change</h2>
<p>The Impact Assessment Act became law in 2019. It replaced the controversial Canadian Environmental Assessment Act of 2012, which <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2104336">gutted the federal government’s ability to rigorously assess the adverse effects of economic projects</a> on the environment.</p>
<p>But the Impact Assessment Act has proven to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/kill-bill-c-69-it-undermines-efforts-to-tackle-climate-change-105118">no less controversial</a>. Its opponents have dubbed it the “<a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/alberta-ottawa-supreme-court-pipeline-law">no more pipelines law</a>” because of fears that the federal government will use it to block fossil fuel development. The express purposes of the law include fostering sustainability, mitigating climate change and incorporating Indigenous knowledge when assessing the impacts of major economic projects across Canada.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Woodland Cree First Nation backed the ruling that found Ottawa’s Impact Assessment Act ‘unconstitutional.’</span></figcaption>
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<p>In 2020, Alberta’s provincial government asked its Court of Appeal to provide an opinion on the constitutionality of the federal law. A 4:1 majority found it unconstitutional. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/ab/abca/doc/2022/2022abca165/2022abca165.html?autocompleteStr=Impact&autocompletePos=2">The court accepted Alberta’s argument</a> that the law would allow the federal government to conduct far-ranging inquiries into matters assigned exclusively to the provinces, including oil and gas. </p>
<p>This means that if a proposed oil project impacted even just one area of federal jurisdiction, say migratory birds, the federal government could assess all of the project’s impacts well beyond migratory birds, including broad and controversial issues like greenhouse gas emissions and sustainability. </p>
<p>The Alberta court acknowledged the existential threat of climate change. But it insisted the Impact Assessment Act is an equally important “existential threat” to the federal-provincial division of powers in Canada. </p>
<h2>The hearing before the Supreme Court</h2>
<p>The crux of the case before the Supreme Court now is thus a federal-provincial dispute over which level of government will determine Canada’s response to climate change. It’s a public policy dispute in the guise of complex constitutional law.</p>
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<p>Judges on the court’s panel who are sympathetic to Alberta’s argument worry the federal government will use the law to regulate natural resources and greenhouse gas emissions, effectively overriding provincial control. </p>
<p>Even those judges who appear to favour the federal government worry the Impact Assessment Act is really just an end-run around the <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/18781/index.do">court’s recent decision on the federal government’s limited authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions via carbon pricing</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the majority of the Supreme Court’s <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-what-a-justices-leave-of-absence-reveals-about-politics-and-the/">panel of seven judges</a> suggested a number of ways to interpret the law more narrowly. For example, the court suggested a requirement that the federal government’s power under the law be proportional to the project’s impacts on defined areas of federal jurisdiction. This will help preserve the balance of shared federal and provincial responsibility over the environment. </p>
<h2>It’s all about politics</h2>
<p>There’s no single correct legal answer to this case. There are compelling — but incomplete — legal arguments in favour of both sides. The decision will boil down to politics.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court will be loath to give either the federal government or Alberta a complete victory. Five of the court’s seven judges presiding over this case clearly see a constitutional path to salvaging the federal Impact Assessment Act by limiting its scope. This would preserve the provinces’ role in regulating the natural resources within their borders. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-case-on-carbon-price-is-about-climate-change-not-the-constitution-146471">The Supreme Court has long held</a> that both levels of government must protect the environment. Its preference is for federal-provincial co-operation, not conflict. As promising as that sounds, it isn’t enough. We need to first understand whether the Impact Assessment Act will help Canada become more sustainable or not, a question that did not come up once during the Supreme Court hearing. </p>
<p>While several environmental groups supported the federal act, many of those same organizations gave it a “<a href="https://ecojustice.ca/news/environmental-groups-give-federal-impact-assessment-act-a-c-grade/">C- grade</a>” when it was introduced in 2018. </p>
<p>The law’s shortcomings included a failure to recognize Indigenous authority, the lack of any requirement to ensure that economic projects contribute to sustainability, a limited scope for assessing smaller projects and their cumulative effects and a lack of clear criteria and accountability for decision-making. It <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349150751_Regulatory_Capture_and_the_Role_of_Academics_in_Public_Policymaking_Lessons_from_Canada%27s_Environmental_Regulatory_Review_Process">hasn’t improved since</a>. </p>
<p>But a law’s ineffectiveness isn’t legally relevant to its constitutionality. A majority of the Supreme Court’s panel of judges will uphold a narrower interpretation of the federal government’s authority under the law to preserve shared federal-provincial jurisdiction over the environment.</p>
<p>Indeed, the court will remind Canadians that both levels of government are accountable for climate change, biodiversity conservation and sustainability. But its role does not require it to say anything about how our governments choose to meet their responsibility.</p>
<p>In the end, only Canadians themselves can truly compel the federal and provincial governments to act immediately and effectively before our window of opportunity to secure a liveable future closes. To do so, they must actively participate in climate politics, collectively organize and demand governments to lead the way towards <a href="https://digitalcommons.osgoode.yorku.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1000&context=scholarly_works">ecological sustainability</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Jason MacLean is a member of the board of directors of the Pacific Centre for Environmental Law and Litigation (CELL), and East Coast Environmental Law (ECELAW). He is also an adjunct professor in the School of Environment and Sustainability at the University of Saskatchewan.</span></em></p>Canada’s federal Impact Assessment Act seeks to minimize the environmental impacts of major economic projects. Will the Supreme Court uphold the act?Jason MacLean, Assistant Professor of Law, University of New BrunswickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2009032023-03-28T20:24:26Z2023-03-28T20:24:26ZCanada needs to synchronize its climate policies for effective emission control<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517848/original/file-20230328-19-5goys1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C93%2C5643%2C3589&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Despite Canada's numerous greenhouse gas reduction policies, these stubbornly high emissions are only now showing signs of falling. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>National, provincial and territorial governments across Canada have implemented a <a href="https://440megatonnes.ca/policy-tracker/">myriad of policies</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in recent years. However, these stubbornly high emissions have <a href="https://climateinstitute.ca/news/early-estimate-of-national-emissions-shows-canada-steadily-separating-economic-growth-from-emissions/">only just started</a> showing signs of falling. </p>
<p>In principle, each level of government is working toward <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/pan-canadian-framework.html">the same goal</a>. Yet, the approaches they use vary in effort, design and coverage — with some emissions sources covered by multiple policies while others remain unregulated.</p>
<p>To achieve our emissions goals, we need federal, provincial and territorial policies paddling in the same direction in addition to synchronized efforts to maximize our impact. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2185586">our new study</a>, recently published in <em>Climate Policy</em>, we examine the development and design of climate policy mixes across Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Québec, as well as at the federal level, and evaluate their expected impact on emissions abatement. </p>
<h2>Regulatory sticks over policy carrots</h2>
<p>Over the last 20 years, the number and types of climate policies implemented in Canada and globally have expanded dramatically. </p>
<p>Policy “carrots” — economic incentives, such as subsidies for low-carbon technologies — are by far the most common policy type and have also been found to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.02.027">more politically popular</a>. But, it is the mandatory regulations — the regulatory “sticks” — including carbon pricing and <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/august-2021/bending-the-emissions-curve-requires-flexibility/">flexible regulations</a> that are expected to do most of the heavy lifting.</p>
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<img alt="An EV charging station in Ontario" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517851/original/file-20230328-14-8tn2ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Incentivizing electric vehicle adoption while decarbonizing our electricity grid can create greater emissions reduction than choosing either policy alone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Doug Ives</span></span>
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<p>While the increased effort toward implementing climate policies across jurisdictions is good, <a href="https://ecofiscal.ca/reports/supporting-carbon-pricing-complementary-policies/">synchronized policy decisions</a> are better. </p>
<p>We see many instances of overlapping policies across provinces that can support or undermine our emissions reduction objectives. Most policy interactions (74 per cent) help reduce additional emissions. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0877-y">For example</a>, incentivizing electric vehicle adoption while decarbonizing our electricity grid can create greater emissions reduction than either policy can on its own.</p>
<p>However, interactions between overlapping policies — particularly across provincial/territorial and federal levels — can also lead to unintended consequences that undermine our policy objectives. </p>
<p>For instance, electric vehicles earn credits under the federal vehicle emissions standards in excess of their actual emissions intensity (prior to policy changes coming in 2025). </p>
<p>This can mean that when additional provincial policies incentivize the adoption of electric vehicles, like <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/electricity-alternative-energy/transportation-energies/clean-transportation-policies-programs/zero-emission-vehicles-act#:%7E:text=The%20ZEV%20Act%20requires%20automakers,2030%20and%20100%25%20by%202040.">B.C.’s zero emission vehicle sales mandate</a>, they allow even higher emissions intensities from the rest of the vehicle fleet while still meeting the federal standard. This <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.04.003">can result in a net increase in emissions</a>. </p>
<h2>Need for synchronized climate policies</h2>
<p>Understanding how policies work together is critically important. </p>
<p>Consider the case of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work.html">Canada’s alternative approaches to carbon pricing</a>. When additional policies are imposed to reduce emissions from fuels covered by the federal carbon tax, the incentive from the carbon price adds on to the incentive from the other policy.</p>
<p>This is because the increase in cost of higher polluting goods from the carbon tax does not change in the presence of additional policy. For example, in British Columbia, fossil fuel use for transportation is disincentivized by both the province’s <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/clean-economy/carbon-tax">carbon tax</a> and <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/electricity-alternative-energy/transportation-energies/renewable-low-carbon-fuels">low-carbon fuel standard</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1468182256707584000"}"></div></p>
<p>However, the interaction differs when the additional policies to reduce emissions are also covered under a cap-and-trade program. Cap-and-trade programs set a limit on the total greenhouse gas emissions from regulated sectors such as electricity, transportation and heavy industry. </p>
<p>A set quantity of emissions allowances are then allocated or auctioned to firms by the government. These allowances are then used to account for that firm’s greenhouse gas emissions. This is seen in the provinces of <a href="https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/changementsclimatiques/marche-carbone_en.asp">Québec</a> and <a href="https://climatechange.novascotia.ca/nova-scotias-cap-trade-program">Nova Scotia</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-amends-cap-and-trade-rules-nova-scotia-power-1.6784978">for now</a>.</p>
<p>Additional policies can reduce emissions from sectors covered by the cap and with it, the demand for emissions allowances. This makes it easier to achieve the limit set by the cap. However, since the limit set by the emissions cap remains unchanged, additional policies don’t necessarily contribute to any additional emissions reduction, but simply shift costs and emissions between activities. </p>
<p>Such interactions have important implications for how we compare the stringency of carbon pricing systems across Canada in relation to the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/carbon-pollution-pricing-federal-benchmark-information.html">federal benchmark</a>. </p>
<h2>Paddling together</h2>
<p>Provinces across the country vary in their economic structure, access to energy resources and political ideologies. So it is no surprise that alternative policy approaches are being pursued.</p>
<p>For instance, Alberta, which relied on the <a href="https://www.iisd.org/publications/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada">oil and gas sector for nearly 25 per cent of GDP and 10 per cent of government revenue in 2019</a>, has implemented about half the number of policies as the other provinces studied. </p>
<p>However, ensuring policies work together to achieve our goals requires <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_otp_201803_e_42883.html">greater co-ordination</a> and co-operation across, and between, governance levels. Re-invigorated inter-governmental bodies like the <a href="https://ccme.ca/">Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment</a> offer a path in this direction. </p>
<p>The variety of policies implemented across the country also highlight the importance of evaluating policy choices within the context of the broader policy mix — a key consideration for climate accountability bodies such as the <a href="https://nzab2050.ca/">Net-Zero Advisory Body</a> and <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/planning-and-action/advisory-council">B.C. Climate Solutions Council</a>. </p>
<p>We are all in the same boat. And if everyone is paddling in their own direction, we can veer off course and make it even harder to reach our destination. To propel us efficiently towards our emissions targets, policies and programs across national and provincial jurisdictions need to paddle together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Scott receives funding from Stanford University and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He also holds affiliations with the University of Calgary and the Canadian Climate Institute. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ekaterina Rhodes receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Insight Development Grant # 430-2020-00214. </span></em></p>While the introduction of more climate policies across jurisdictions is good, synchronized policy decisions are better.William Scott, PhD Candidate, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford UniversityEkaterina Rhodes, Assistant Professor, School of Public Administration, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2021342023-03-20T13:03:29Z2023-03-20T13:03:29ZIPCC report: Climate solutions exist, but humanity has to break from the status quo and embrace innovation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516287/original/file-20230320-20-1vd4wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C32%2C5464%2C3599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">French lawmakers voted to require solar panel covers in most large parking lots.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/aerial-view-of-solar-panels-on-a-parking-lot-royalty-free-image/1409700815">Teamjackson via iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s easy to feel pessimistic when scientists around the world are warning that climate change has advanced so far, it’s now inevitable that societies will either <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">transform themselves or be transformed</a>. But as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pR5kLz0AAAAJ&hl=en">two of the</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GUE7UxIAAAAJ&hl=en">authors</a> of a recent <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">international climate report</a>, we also see reason for optimism.</p>
<p>The latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">the synthesis report</a> released March 20, 2023, discuss changes ahead, but they also describe how existing solutions can <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">reduce greenhouse gas emissions</a> and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">help people adjust</a> to impacts of climate change that can’t be avoided.</p>
<p>The problem is that these solutions aren’t being deployed fast enough. In addition to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-big-oil-knew-about-climate-change-in-its-own-words-170642">pushback from industries</a>, people’s <a href="https://www.inc.com/scott-mautz/science-says-this-is-why-you-fear-change-and-what-to-do-about-it.html">fear of change</a> has helped maintain the status quo. </p>
<p>To slow climate change and adapt to the damage already underway, the world will have to shift how it generates and uses energy, transports people and goods, designs buildings and grows food. That starts with embracing innovation and change.</p>
<h2>Fear of change can lead to worsening change</h2>
<p>From the industrial revolution to the rise of social media, societies have undergone fundamental changes in how people live and understand their place in the world.</p>
<p>Some transformations are widely regarded as bad, including many of those connected to climate change. For example, about half the world’s coral reef <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-reefs-are-dying-as-climate-change-decimates-ocean-ecosystems-vital-to-fish-and-humans-164743">ecosystems have died</a> because of <a href="https://gcrmn.net/2020-report/">increasing heat and acidity in the oceans</a>. Island nations like Kiribati and coastal communities, including in Louisiana and Alaska, are <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/these-photographs-show-how-rising-sea-connects-us-all">losing land into rising seas</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hW9EAkqu6aY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Residents of the Pacific island nation of Kiribati describe the changes they’re experiencing as sea level rises.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other transformations have had both good and bad effects. The <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/03/research-the-industrial-revolution-left-psychological-scars-that-can-still-be-seen-today">industrial revolution</a> vastly raised standards of living for many people, but it spawned inequality, social disruption and environmental destruction.</p>
<p>People often resist transformation because their fear of losing what they have is more powerful than knowing they might gain something better. Wanting to retain things as they are – known as <a href="https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/status-quo-bias/">status quo bias</a> – explains all sorts of individual decisions, from sticking with incumbent politicians to <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rzeckhauser/files/status_quo_bias_in_decision_making.pdf">not enrolling in retirement or health plans</a> even when the alternatives may be rationally better. </p>
<p>This effect may be even more pronounced for larger changes. In the past, delaying inevitable change has led to transformations that are unnecessarily harsh, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-1433.2008.00041.x">collapse of some 13th-century civilizations</a> in what is now the U.S. Southwest. As more people <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/391508/extreme-weather-affected-one-three-americans.aspx">experience the harms of climate change firsthand</a>, they may begin to realize that transformation is inevitable and embrace new solutions.</p>
<h2>A mix of good and bad</h2>
<p>The IPCC reports make clear that the future inevitably involves more and larger climate-related transformations. The question is what the mix of good and bad will be in those transformations.</p>
<p>If countries allow greenhouse gas emissions to continue at a high rate and communities adapt only incrementally to the resulting climate change, the transformations will be mostly forced and <a href="https://theconversation.com/transformational-change-is-coming-to-how-people-live-on-earth-un-climate-adaptation-report-warns-which-path-will-humanity-choose-177604">mostly bad</a>. </p>
<p>For example, a riverside town might raise its levees as spring flooding worsens. At some point, as the scale of flooding increases, such adaptation hits its limits. The levees necessary to hold back the water may become too expensive or so intrusive that they undermine any benefit of living near the river. The community may wither away.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person in a boat checks the river side of sandbag levee protecting a community during a flood." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Riverside communities often scramble to raise levees during floods, like this one in Louisiana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dennis-barkemeyer-inspects-a-levee-constructed-around-a-news-photo/114243924">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The riverside community could also take a more deliberate and anticipatory approach to transformation. It might shift to higher ground, turn its riverfront into parkland while developing affordable housing for people who are displaced by the project, and collaborate with upstream communities to expand landscapes that capture floodwaters. Simultaneously, the community can shift to renewable energy and electrified transportation to help slow global warming.</p>
<h2>Optimism resides in deliberate action</h2>
<p>The IPCC reports include numerous examples that can help steer such positive transformation.</p>
<p>For example, renewable energy is now <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020">generally less expensive than fossil fuels</a>, so a shift to clean energy can often save money. Communities can also be redesigned to better survive natural hazards through <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-wildfire-resistant-communities-in-a-warming-world-174582">steps such as</a> maintaining natural wildfire breaks and building homes to be less susceptible to burning.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Charts showing falling costs and rising adoption of clean energy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Costs are falling for key forms of renewable energy and electric vehicle batteries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">IPCC sixth assessment report</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Land use and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-make-sure-bidens-infrastructure-plan-can-hold-up-to-climate-change-and-save-money-153869">design of infrastructure,</a> such as roads and bridges, can be based on forward-looking climate information. <a href="https://theconversation.com/coastal-home-buyers-are-ignoring-rising-flood-risks-despite-clear-warnings-and-rising-insurance-premiums-179603">Insurance pricing</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/sec-proposes-far-reaching-climate-disclosure-rules-for-companies-heres-where-the-rules-may-be-vulnerable-to-legal-challenges-179534">corporate climate risk disclosures</a> can help the public recognize hazards in the products they buy and companies they support as investors.</p>
<p>No one group can enact these changes alone. Everyone must be involved, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-social-cost-of-carbon-2-energy-experts-explain-176255">governments</a> that can <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/renewable-sources/incentives.php">mandate and incentivize changes</a>, businesses that often control decisions about greenhouse gas emissions, and citizens who can turn up the pressure on both.</p>
<h2>Transformation is inevitable</h2>
<p>Efforts to both <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">adapt to</a> and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">mitigate climate change</a> have advanced substantially in the last five years, but <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">not fast enough</a> to prevent the transformations already underway.</p>
<p>Doing more to disrupt the status quo with proven solutions can help smooth these transformations and create a better future in the process.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an update to an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-transform-how-we-live-but-these-tech-and-policy-experts-see-reason-for-optimism-180961">originally published</a> April 18, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202134/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Lempert receives funding from the National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Transportation and Culver City Forward. He was coordinating lead author of the IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report, Chapter 1, and is affiliated with RAND Corp.; Harvard; SCoPEx (Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment) Independent Advisory Committee; National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Decision Science and Analysis Technical Advisory Committee (TAC); Council on Foreign Relations; Evolving Logic; and the City of Santa Monica Commission on Environmental, Sustainability, and Environmental Justice.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elisabeth Gilmore receives funding from Minerva Research Initiative administered by the Office of Basic Research and the Office of Policy at the U.S. Department of Defense and the National Science Foundation. She is affiliated with Carleton University, Rutgers University, the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), and was a lead author on the IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report.</span></em></p>Two experts in policy and technology who were also co-authors of an international climate assessment see reasons for optimism.Robert Lempert, Professor of Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate SchoolElisabeth Gilmore, Associate Professor of Climate Change, Technology and Policy, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1996902023-02-22T02:24:35Z2023-02-22T02:24:35ZMany Indonesians still misunderstand climate change – so how can we change this?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510525/original/file-20230216-20-aalg1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C19%2C1274%2C827&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young Indonesians gather to talk about climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(350.org)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.iea.org/news/indonesia-s-push-to-reach-net-zero-emissions-can-help-power-a-new-phase-in-its-economic-development">Despite the country’s good progress</a> in addressing climate change, two recent surveys have shown many Indonesians do not understand climate change or its causes.</p>
<p>A 2021 survey, <a href="https://www.developmentdialogueasia.com/pesan-perubahan-iklim">published last month</a>, asked a random sample of 3,490 Indonesians from 34 provinces if they had ever heard the term “climate change”, followed up with focus group research last year. </p>
<p>The survey found 88% of respondents, aged 16 to 60 years, had heard of the term – but only 44% of them could define it correctly. </p>
<p>The research, by environmental non-profit organisation Dialogue Development Asia communication consultant Communications for Change, also found only one in three of those surveyed believed global warming is happening, while less than half (47%) believed it had been caused primarily by humans. </p>
<p>These findings were echoed in an even bigger <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/international-public-opinion-on-climate-change-2022a.pdf">2022 Yale</a> climate change survey, involving 108,946 adult Facebook users in 192 countries and territories – including 1,178 Indonesians.</p>
<p>That survey found Indonesians were the least likely (18%) of any nationality to say climate change is “caused mostly by human activities”, along with people from Yemen (21%). </p>
<p>Among Asian and Pacific nations, only Laos and Cambodia had lower self-reported rates of knowledge about climate change than Indonesia. Two-thirds of the Indonesian survey respondents said they knew either “a little” or “had never heard of” climate change, compared to just 29% who said they knew either “a lot” or had “moderate” knowledge about it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511308/original/file-20230221-14-7uh7og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511308/original/file-20230221-14-7uh7og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511308/original/file-20230221-14-7uh7og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511308/original/file-20230221-14-7uh7og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511308/original/file-20230221-14-7uh7og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511308/original/file-20230221-14-7uh7og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511308/original/file-20230221-14-7uh7og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511308/original/file-20230221-14-7uh7og.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indonesian Facebook users had one of the highest rates in Asia and the Pacific of responding they knew only ‘a little’ or ‘had never heard of’ climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">International Public Opinion on Climate Change, 2022, Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and Data for Good at Meta.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Educating people about climate change in a country where many still consider the topic personally irrelevant is a huge challenge. </p>
<p>When people have a better understanding of climate change, they can demand that policymakers take more ambitious steps to address it and hold them accountable for any inaction.</p>
<p>Thus, as a researcher in climate policy, we should involve more people in the conversation. </p>
<p>Here are three steps we can take to raise the public’s awareness and make climate change an important issue for everyone in Indonesia.</p>
<h2>1. Understand people’s worldviews</h2>
<p>First, we need to understand our target audience, including their worldview. </p>
<p>A worldview is a person’s unique perspective, based on their beliefs, values, culture and experiences.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510530/original/file-20230216-20-8etx9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510530/original/file-20230216-20-8etx9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510530/original/file-20230216-20-8etx9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510530/original/file-20230216-20-8etx9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510530/original/file-20230216-20-8etx9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510530/original/file-20230216-20-8etx9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510530/original/file-20230216-20-8etx9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jakarta Cathedral during mass.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rantemario/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An unusually high proportion of Indonesians – <a href="https://www.developmentdialogueasia.com/pesan-perubahan-iklim">93-97%</a> – hold a conservative worldview. They value preserving institutions associated with greater authority, such as religious and state institutions. They also include moral traditions, spiritual codes and local customs.</p>
<p>Although many Indonesians are still not familiar with the concept of climate change, <a href="https://www.developmentdialogueasia.com/pesan-perubahan-iklim">about 80% of them believe</a> that humans have a moral responsibility to protect the environment. </p>
<p>This responsibility reflects their values in defending nature as part of their obedience to authority and a sense of patriotism – <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022103116301056">all tied to a conservative worldview</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesia-enlists-muslim-clerics-to-promote-clean-energy-181353">Indonesia enlists Muslim clerics to promote clean energy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Due to Indonesians’ conservative views, it’s crucial to tailor the narrative on climate action to fit these views. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.developmentdialogueasia.com/pesan-perubahan-iklim">A report suggest</a> liberal-leaning messages resonate less with the Indonesian public than conservative-leaning ones. Such findings mean words like “losing the forest will put Indonesia’s sovereignty in jeopardy” or “preserving the forest is our duty as people of faith” are more effective than messages like “protect the forest, save Indigenous communities.”</p>
<p>Governments and civil society organisations need to identify their target audience and understand their perspectives to educate them effectively on climate change.</p>
<h2>2. Connect with people’s real lives</h2>
<p>Raising awareness about climate change among the Indonesian public is crucial. However, it’s equally important to simplify the message, considering that the concept of climate change can be complicated and highly technical.</p>
<p>To do this, the narrative on climate change should resonate with people’s everyday lives. For instance, the term <em>selimut polusi</em> (pollution blanket) in Indonesian <a href="https://www.developmentdialogueasia.com/pesan-perubahan-iklim">is effective in describing climate change to the public</a>.</p>
<p>To raise public awareness about the climate emergency in Indonesia, governments, civil society organisations and universities should work with public relations or communication strategists to tailor compelling narratives on climate change.</p>
<h2>3. Use social media</h2>
<p>Individual actions can pressure decision-makers for public causes.</p>
<p>Climate change is no exception. Raising the awareness of the Indonesian public on climate, if done right, can increase Indonesia’s commitment to climate actions and preserving the environment.</p>
<p><a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0c27/2d8c5c3cf2838aa7fd8eac5c0e2b12b2b484.pdf">Social media is a great way to do this</a>, as long as the right people and groups can access the correct information, such as facts about climate change, and create stories that matter. </p>
<p>The government or other groups can use social media to help people understand climate change better. Many Indonesians use social media: there were about 191.4 million active social media users in Indonesia in 2022. That’s the third most in the Asia Pacific region, <a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/8306/social-media-in-indonesia/#topicOverview">behind only China and India</a>.</p>
<p>Governments or civil society organisations, equipped with the correct narratives and strategies, could use social media to raise public awareness of climate change.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesias-environment-ministry-fails-to-communicate-risk-of-air-pollution-to-jakartans-120422">Indonesia's environment ministry fails to communicate risk of air pollution to Jakartans</a>
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<p>In conclusion, we need to help more Indonesians understand climate change if we want our leaders to take action. </p>
<p>It’s not just about changing policies, but also making sure more people know about climate change. We can help by using the proper communication approaches to talk to people about the issue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199690/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brurce Muhammad Mecca tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>In Indonesia, building a climate-resilient future can’t rely on policy reform alone. Making more people care about climate change is arguably still the hardest change to make.Brurce Muhammad Mecca, Senior Analyst, Climateworks CentreLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2000832023-02-16T09:31:59Z2023-02-16T09:31:59ZGrattan on Friday: Adam Bandt is wedged by Greens’ overreach on emissions legislation<p>If Peter Dutton is caught in a classic rock-and-hard-place dilemma over the Voice to Parliament, the same could be said for Greens leader Adam Bandt on the safeguard legislation to underpin the government’s climate policy. </p>
<p>The Greens are putting as a condition of supporting the bill – now before parliament – that the government commits to a ban on new coal and gas projects. </p>
<p>They pitched for the ban when parliament was considering legislation for the 43% emissions reduction target, but the government stared them down and they ended up backing that bill. </p>
<p>Now, the stakes are much higher – for both government and Greens. </p>
<p>The 43% target didn’t have to be law. That was just icing on the cake. In contrast, the government needs the safeguard legislation – which forces the biggest polluters to reduce their emissions – to implement its policy. </p>
<p>Reform of Australia’s emissions reduction regime is at the heart of Labor’s agenda. To be stymied on implementation would be a major setback. </p>
<p>From the Greens’ point of view, to have failed once to force the government’s hand can be brushed over. To fail twice risks making the party look impotent in the eyes of its supporters.</p>
<p>It should be noted the Greens say they are not issuing an “ultimatum”, leaving themselves wriggle room for retreat. But their words are strong, and stepping back would be seen as precisely that.</p>
<p>Just like the Liberals, the Greens have a base that is split between hardliners and moderates. At the radical end, their activists don’t want the party to compromise on core issues; in contrast, its mainstream voters want outcomes. </p>
<p>The Greens have history on standing in the way of progress on climate policy, and the government is rubbing their noses in their past. Greens opposition killed the Rudd government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (when their vote suddenly became significant after a leadership upheaval in the Liberals). Their explanation is that it “was bad policy that would have locked in failure to take action on climate change”.</p>
<p>Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek on Thursday said, in answer to a Greens questioner in parliament, “when you lined up with the Liberals last time to block the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, what we saw was more emissions for longer because you voted with them”. </p>
<p>Of course given that, on an ordinary interpretation of “mandates”, Labor has one for its climate policy, the Coalition should let the legislation through – which would make the Greens irrelevant. </p>
<p>But the opposition is spurning any recognition of Labor mandates for core election policies, contesting its $15 billion National Reconstruction Fund and the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund as well as the safeguard bill. This deals the Greens (and non-Greens Senate crossbenchers) into the centre of things. </p>
<p>But while holding a whip hand, the Greens are also wedged on the safeguard legislation. </p>
<p>It’s hard to see that, at the end of the day, they have anywhere else else to go than to vote with the government. Do they really want to line up with the Coalition (again) to reject a major initiative – to be accused (again) of making “the perfect the enemy of the good”? </p>
<p>Bandt rejected that line on the Voice. Senator Lidia Thorpe defected from the Greens to sit on the crossbench because she thought the party wasn’t being pure enough on Indigenous policy. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lidia-thorpes-defection-from-the-greens-will-make-passing-legislation-harder-for-labor-199299">Lidia Thorpe's defection from the Greens will make passing legislation harder for Labor</a>
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<p>Thorpe argued a Treaty should be given priority over the Voice. But Bandt, while noting the Greens still think a Treaty should come first, said he didn’t believe a “no” vote on the referendum would bring a Treaty closer. It was sensible pragmatism. </p>
<p>Neither would a no vote on the safeguard mechanism be likely to bring closer a ban on new coal and gas ventures. </p>
<p>The market is increasingly cooling on new coal projects. Gas is another matter. Ukraine and the debate about its role in the transition to cleaner energy are driving mixed market messages and investment.</p>
<p>Labor, already facing deepening economic problems, would trash its credibility with investors, business generally and voters if it agreed to the Greens’ ban. </p>
<p>Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen says he is open to negotiation on the safeguard legislation, within the policy Labor took to the election. That provided for new fossil fuel projects to be considered on their merits. </p>
<p>Apart from the issue of project bans, the safeguard bill itself – due for a Senate vote in March for a July 1 start – and the associated draft rule are coming under fire, especially for being too generous on carbon credit offsets. </p>
<p>The head of The Australia Institute, Richard Denniss, wrote in the Guardian: “The reality is the safeguard mechanism does more to safeguard the fossil fuel industry than it does to safeguard the climate. It hides its support for fossil fuel expansion behind a fig leaf of dodgy carbon credits and offsets.”</p>
<p>In contrast, Carbon Market Institute CEO John Connor argues the safeguard mechanism reforms, reducing pollution limits by 5% a year, are significant. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-scheme-to-cut-industrial-emissions-is-worryingly-flexible-197525">Labor's scheme to cut industrial emissions is worryingly flexible</a>
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<p>“They will send a multi-billion-dollar and growing signal to our largest emitters to drive at source decarbonisation, while requiring investments in emission reductions elsewhere in the economy when they can’t do so immediately at the relevant facility,” he says. </p>
<p>“With our high-carbon political economy and historic policy convolutions, it would be a major setback to lose the safeguard mechanism reforms,” Connor says, although adding there should be some amendments to the legislation. </p>
<p>As he tries to chart his course for exercising the Greens’ share of the balance of power in the Senate, Bandt might at times mull on the now-extinct Australian Democrats and their one-time leader Meg Lees. </p>
<p>Lees negotiated a deal with the Howard government for the introduction of the goods and services tax. She extracted concessions for the Democrats’ support, and she did the right thing facilitating the legislation. It was a change to the tax system the country needed. </p>
<p>But Lees paid a high price in a party that was divided over the issue, with many of its supporters abhorring compromise. Ultimately, it cost her the leadership. </p>
<p>This is not an argument against Bandt compromising, which he should and almost certainly will have to. It’s just a reminder that sensible decisions can impose great pressures on the leaders of minor parties when those parties exercise real make-or-break power.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200083/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Like the Liberals, the Greens have a base that is split between hardliners and moderates. At the radical end, their activists don’t want compromise on core issues; its mainstream voters want outcomes.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1982862023-02-13T13:26:11Z2023-02-13T13:26:11ZBig Oil’s trade group allies outspent clean energy groups by a whopping 27x, with billions in ads and lobbying to keep fossil fuels flowing<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/los-grupos-aliados-de-las-grandes-petroleras-gastaron-miles-de-millones-en-publicidad-y-grupos-de-presion-para-mantener-el-negocio-de-los-combustibles-fosiles-199848">Leer en español</a>.</em></p>
<p>You’ve probably seen ads promoting gas and oil companies <a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-generate-b5679c38-e2cf-40b1-9b9b-cf3e5476a693.html">as the solutions to climate change</a>. They’re meant to be <a href="https://www.ispot.tv/ad/ovGn/exxon-mobil-algae-potential">inspiring and hopeful</a>, with scenes of a green, clean future.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKfLYRtCGY4">shiny ads</a> are not all these companies do to protect their commercial interests in the face of a rapidly heating world. Most <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-022-03466-0">also provide financial support</a> to industry groups that are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on political activities, often to thwart polices designed to slow climate change.</p>
<p>For example, The New York Times recently reported on the Propane Education and Research Council’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/11/climate/climate-propane-influence-campaign.html">attempts to derail efforts</a> to electrify homes and buildings in New York, in part by committing nearly US$900,000 to the New York Propane Gas Association, which flooded social media with misleading information about energy-efficient heat pumps.</p>
<p>The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, which represents oil refiners and petrochemical firms, has <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/zahrahirji/edelman-fossil-fuel-pr-climate">spent millions</a> on public relations campaigns, such as promoting a rollback of federal fuel efficiency standards.</p>
<p>These practices have been going on for decades, and evidence shows that industry groups have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ab3">played key roles</a> in <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9780429402074/business-battles-us-energy-sector-christian-downie">blocking state and federal climate policies</a>. This matters not just because of the enormous sums the groups are spending, but also because they often act as a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Business-Battles-in-the-US-Energy-Sector-Lessons-for-a-Clean-Energy-Transition/Downie/p/book/9781138392717">command center</a> for political campaigns to kill pro-climate policies.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1446189362622996485"}"></div></p>
<p>We study the political activities of industry groups. In a recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03466-0">research paper</a>, we dug through U.S. tax filings to follow the money trail of trade associations engaged on climate change issues and track the billions they have spent to shape federal policy.</p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>After NASA scientist James Hansen <a href="https://www.scribd.com/doc/260149292/Transcript-of-pivotal-climate-change-hearing-1988">sounded the alarm on climate change</a> in 1988, three trade associations – the National Association of Manufacturers, the Edison Electric Institute and the American Petroleum Institute – banded together with a couple of electrical utilities to form the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2022.2058815">Global Climate Coalition</a>, or GCC.</p>
<p>The GCC systematically opposed any international regulation of climate-warming emissions, and successfully prevented the U.S. from ratifying the <a href="https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a>, a 1997 international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>This was the first example of trade associations working together <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/18/the-forgotten-oil-ads-that-told-us-climate-change-was-nothing">to stall government action</a> on climate change. Similar efforts continue today.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1121316135318818817"}"></div></p>
<p>So, how much do trade associations spend on political activities, such as public relations? As not-for-profit organizations under the Internal Revenue Code, trade associations have to report their revenue and spending.</p>
<p>We found that trade associations historically opposed to climate policies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03466-0">spent $2 billion</a> in the decade from 2008 to 2018 on political activities, such as advertising, lobbying and political contributions. Together, they outspent climate-supporting industry groups 27 to 1. </p>
<p>The oil and gas sector was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03466-0">the largest</a>, spending $1.3 billion. Across the 89 trade associations we examined in nine different sectors of the U.S. economy between 2008 and 2018, no other group of trade associations came close.</p>
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<h2>No. 1 expense: Advertising and promotion</h2>
<p>What came as more of a surprise as we were tallying up the data was how much trade associations are spending on advertising and promotion. This can include everything from mainstream media ads promoting the industry to hiring public relations firms to target particular issues before Congress.</p>
<p>For example, until they parted ways last year, Edelman, the world’s largest public relations firm, <a href="https://heated.world/p/edelmans-climate-cop-out">received close to $30 million</a> from American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers to promote fossil fuels, reporters at the online news site Heated found.</p>
<p>Our study found that trade associations engaged on climate change issues spent a total of $2.2 billion on advertising and promotion between 2008 and 2018, compared with $729 million on lobbying. As <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/american-petroleum-institute/summary?id=D000031493">2022 lobbying data shows</a>, their <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/american-fuel-petrochem-manufacturers/summary?id=D000027874">spending continues</a>. While not all of this spending is directly targeting climate policy, climate change is one of the <a href="https://influencemap.org/landing/-a794566767a94a5d71052b63a05e825f-20189">top political issues</a> for many industries in the energy sector.</p>
<p>Media buys are expensive, but these numbers also reflect the specific role trade associations play in protecting the reputation of the firms they represent.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Trade groups run promotional ads for their industries, as well as negative ads.</span></figcaption>
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<p>One reason that groups like the American Petroleum Institute have historically taken the lead running negative public relations campaigns is so that their members, such as BP and Shell, are not tarred with the same brush, as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03466-0">our interviews with industry insiders confirmed</a>. </p>
<p>However, many firms are now coming under pressure to leave trade associations that oppose climate policies. In one example, the oil giant Total <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/01/15/french-oil-giant-total-quits-american-petroleum-institute/">quit API in 2021</a>, citing disagreements over climate positions.</p>
<p>Spending on social media in the weeks ahead of the U.S. midterm elections and during the U.N. Climate Conference in November 2022 offers another window into these groups’ operations.</p>
<p><a href="https://caad.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/DDD_ExposingClimateDisinfo-COP27.pdf">A review</a> by the advocacy group Climate Action Against Disinformation found that 87 fossil-fuel-linked groups spent roughly $3 million to $4 million on more than 3,700 ads through Facebook’s parent company alone in the 12 weeks before and during the conference. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Facebook received millions of dollars to run ads promoting natural gas.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The largest share came from a public relations group representing the American Petroleum Institute and focused heavily on advocating for natural gas and oil and discussing energy security. America’s Plastic Makers spent about $1.1 million on climate-related advertising during the two weeks of the U.N. conference.</p>
<h2>Funneling money to think tanks and local groups</h2>
<p>Trade associations also spent $394 million on grants to other organizations during the decade we reviewed. For example, they gave money to think tanks, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/31/climate/frank-mitloehner-uc-davis.html">universities</a>, charitable foundations and political organizations like associations of mayors and governors.</p>
<p>While some of these grants may be philanthropic in nature, among the trade associations we spoke to, most have a political purpose in mind. Grants channeled to local community groups, as one example, can help boost an industry’s reputation among key constituent groups, and as a result their social license to operate.</p>
<h2>What this means for climate policy</h2>
<p>Fossil fuel companies, which reported <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2023/2/8/23587955/exxon-chevron-bp-oil-profits-climate">record profits</a> in 2022, still <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/9937?login=true">spend more</a> on political activities than their trade associations do.</p>
<p>But industry groups historically opposed to climate policies are also big spenders, as our research shows. They outspent those that support actions to slow climate change, such as the solar and wind industries, by a whopping $2 billion to $74.5 million over the 10 years we reviewed.</p>
<p>This likely <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/60bed54ea75154265d5f3862/t/60bee2b67579be685d2e4715/1623122616896/Downie-2018-Business-and-Politics.pdf">helps to explain</a> why it took Congress almost 35 years after Hansen first warned representatives about the dangers of climate change to pass a major climate bill, the 2022 <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376">Inflation Reduction Act</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers looked at a decade of political spending by the oil and gas industry and others engaged in climate policy. If money talks, one side had a giant megaphone.Christian Downie, Associate Professor, Australian National UniversityRobert Brulle, Professor of Sociology, Brown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1994642023-02-09T13:34:20Z2023-02-09T13:34:20ZNew Zealand wants to tax cow burps – here’s why that’s not the best climate solution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508741/original/file-20230207-21-8vqj9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C22%2C4900%2C3506&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cows generate methane as they digest their food. It's a potent greenhouse gas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/austria-salzkammergut-cow-on-meadow-looking-at-royalty-free-image/1125227459">Westend61 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand, where agriculture is one of the largest contributors to climate change, is proposing <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/pricing-agricultural-emissions-report-under-section-215-of-the-climate-change-response-act-2002/?itid=lk_inline_enhanced-template">a tax on cow burps</a>. The <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/can-you-tax-a-cows-burps-new-zealand-will-be-the-first-to-try">reason</a> seems simple enough: Cows release methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and New Zealand has a goal of reaching net-zero emissions by midcentury. Right now, <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory-1990-2020-snapshot/">the country’s effects on climate change</a> come roughly equally from carbon dioxide and methane.</p>
<p>Worldwide, <a href="https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/">150 governments have committed</a> to cut methane emissions, both from agriculture and by cracking down on the largest source – fugitive leaks from natural gas pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure.</p>
<p>But is methane from cows really as bad for the climate as methane from fossil fuels? And given its shorter lifetime in the atmosphere, is methane as bad as carbon dioxide?</p>
<p>The answers involve renewable resources and the so-called circular economy. Understanding the effectiveness of different strategies is important as countries plan their routes to net-zero emissions, which is necessary for the world to stop further climate change.</p>
<p>Moreover, emissions must not just reach net-zero, they must stay there.</p>
<h2>Targeting methane</h2>
<p>I am a climate scientist who has spent decades studying global warming. Evidence has clearly established that <a href="https://theconversation.com/2022s-supercharged-summer-of-climate-extremes-how-global-warming-and-la-nina-fueled-disasters-on-top-of-disasters-190546">human activities</a> are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">causing climate change</a>. Humans have released so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere since beginning to burn fossil fuels in the 1800s that the accumulated gases are now trapping significantly more heat than is released to space. The result is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-not-to-solve-the-climate-change-problem-187222">global warming</a>.</p>
<p>Some carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. But methane, the second-most important greenhouse gas, lingers in the atmosphere for only <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/methane-and-climate-change">about a decade</a> before being oxidized to form carbon dioxide.</p>
<p>Although methane doesn’t last as long, it is many times more potent than carbon dioxide at warming the climate. That’s why it’s a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/11/1136061205/biden-methane-emissions-epa-rules-climate-change-gas-prices">target for policymakers</a>.</p>
<p>However, its effects can be misjudged. A <a href="https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator">rough equivalence</a> of the heating from methane to that of carbon dioxide is often used to estimate its effects on the climate, but the number varies by the time frame. </p>
<p>The global warming potential typically used for methane is <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials">28 times that of carbon dioxide for a 100-year period</a>. But a spike in methane has no effect after about 30 years because the methane is well gone by then. So, methane’s effects on temperature are greatly overstated over centuries, while considerably understated over the first 20 years. Indeed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00226-2">scientists</a> have argued that short-lived climate pollutants such as methane should be split out from long-lived ones such as carbon dioxide when making policy. </p>
<p>Moreover, biogenic sources of carbon, such as from trees or cattle, are renewable, while fossil fuel sources are not.</p>
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<h2>Biogenic or fossil?</h2>
<p>Biogenic methane comes from all sorts of livestock – cattle, sheep, goats, deer and even buffalo – and it has a <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/guides/methane-and-other-major-greenhouse-gases">circular life</a>.</p>
<p>It originates as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that is taken up by grass and other plants during photosynthesis. Those plants are eaten by animals and then methane is burped out during digestion, or released as flatulence or through decaying manure. Once released, methane stays in the atmosphere for about a decade before it becomes carbon dioxide and is taken up by plants again.</p>
<p>Some carbon is temporarily stored as meat, leather or wool, but it too is eventually recycled. The amount of methane from livestock would be stable were it not for rising demand for animal protein by the ever-increasing global population, leading to increasing livestock on farms.</p>
<p>Fossil fuels, on the other hand, have been in the Earth for millions of years. <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/methane-tracker-2020/methane-from-oil-gas">Fossil methane</a> is a waste product of coal mines, and also is extracted from shale and other underground deposits as natural gas. So-called fugitive emissions leak from pipelines and abandoned wells, and methane is often flared or vented directly into the atmosphere. There are also often major <a href="https://nexusmedianews.com/top_story/methane-cloud-spotted-over-new-mexico/">outbursts</a> from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/02/orphan-wells-infrastructure-law/">accidents</a> that can now be <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/methane-tracker-2021">tracked from satellite</a>. The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/04/1126562195/the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-stopped-leaking-but-the-methane-emitted-broke-rec">Nord Stream gas leak</a> in September 2022, <a href="https://sakerhetspolisen.se/ovriga-sidor/other-languages/english-engelska/press-room/news/news/2022-11-18-confirmed-sabotage-of-the-nord-stream-gas-pipelines.html">likely caused by sabotage</a>, reportedly leaked 500,000 tons of methane.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Methane leaks were evident in 2019 satellite data from the Permian Basin, a large oil and gas field in Texas and New Mexico.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/nasa-built-instrument-will-help-to-spot-greenhouse-gas-super-emitters">Global Airborne Observatory/Carbon Mapper, University of Arizona/Arizona State University/NASA/JPL-Caltech</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While biogenic methane ultimately recycles the carbon dioxide that was its source a short time ago, fossil-sourced methane adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Studies have estimated that livestock is responsible for about one-third of global anthropogenic <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020">methane emissions</a>, while oil and gas operations represent about 63%.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean countries shouldn’t reduce biogenic methane, too. But the circular life of biogenic methane means that it should be considered separately from fossil methane when determining how to manage emissions to reach net zero by 2050. </p>
<h2>Implications for climate policies</h2>
<p>Many of the actions that governments take today under the guise of net-zero emissions risk passing the harms of climate change down to future generations rather than fundamentally solving the problem. Strategies that aim to reduce carbon from any source, as opposed to focusing on reducing the use of fossil fuels, are an example.</p>
<p>Right now, carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is generally treated interchangeably with carbon emissions from clearing forests or from methane emissions. Simple conversion factors, while convenient, mask complicated value judgments. For example, reducing methane may buy a decade of lower temperatures. Reducing fossil carbon, on the other hand, buys thousands of years. </p>
<p>There’s a similar argument to be made about carbon offsets involving trees. Trees take up carbon dioxide during photosynthesis and use the carbon to create wood, bark, leaves and roots. When the trees die or are used, the carbon is recycled as carbon dioxide. But while planting a new stand of trees may lock up some carbon, most only live for decades, and trees can get diseased or burn in forest fires, meaning they’re temporary. Recent research suggests that the value of trees as <a href="https://theconversation.com/satellites-detect-no-real-climate-benefit-from-10-years-of-forest-carbon-offsets-in-california-193943">carbon offsets</a> is greatly <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.930426">overestimated</a>. Further, planting <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/anne-salmond-nzs-climate-planting-asking-for-trouble">monoculture tree plantations</a> has drawbacks, especially with regard to biodiversity.</p>
<p>Emissions from burning coal, oil or natural gas can only be credibly offset by removing carbon dioxide and storing it in a form that <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2019.00009/full">will be stable</a> for many thousands of years.</p>
<p>Steadying or reducing livestock numbers and perhaps <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cows-a-few-ounces-of-seaweed-daily-could-sharply-reduce-their-contribution-to-climate-change-157192">changing their feed</a> can stabilize their methane emissions. But to address the climate change crisis long term, I believe it is essential to recognize that the real solution for climate change is to cut emissions of fossil fuels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Trenberth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand is considering a plan to tax methane from cows. But while cows and cars both emit greenhouse gases, they don’t have the same impact over time.Kevin Trenberth, Distinguished Scholar, NCAR; Affiliate Faculty, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1970942023-01-26T13:24:32Z2023-01-26T13:24:32ZHow California’s ambitious new climate plan could help speed energy transformation around the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503134/original/file-20230104-18-mt4v7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C46%2C5130%2C3356&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electrifying trucks and cars and shifting to renewable energy are crucial for California's zero-emissions future.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/traffic-passes-a-wind-farm-in-the-san-gorgonio-pass-near-news-photo/1371863246">Sergio Pitamitz / VWPics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>California is embarking on an audacious <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/ab-32-climate-change-scoping-plan">new climate plan</a> that aims to eliminate the state’s greenhouse gas footprint by 2045, and in the process, slash emissions far beyond its borders. The blueprint calls for massive transformations in industry, energy and transportation, as well as changes in institutions and human behaviors.</p>
<p>These transformations won’t be easy. Two years of developing the plan have exposed myriad challenges and tensions, including environmental justice, affordability and local rule.</p>
<p>For example, the San Francisco Fire Commission had <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/san-francisco-solar-power-bureaucracy-17659868.php">prohibited batteries</a> with more than 20 kilowatt-hours of power storage in homes, severely limiting the ability to store solar electricity from rooftop solar panels for all those times when the sun isn’t shining. More broadly, local opposition to new transmission lines, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-san-bernardino-solar-renewable-energy-20190228-story.html">large-scale solar and wind facilities</a>, substations for truck charging, and oil refinery conversions to produce renewable diesel will slow the transition.</p>
<p>I had a front row seat while the plan was prepared and vetted as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=roV8b2sAAAAJ&hl=en">longtime board member</a> of the California Air Resources Board, the state agency that oversees air pollution and climate control. And my chief contributor to this article, <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/about/leadership/rajinder-sahota">Rajinder Sahota</a>, is deputy executive officer of the board, responsible for preparing the plan and navigating political land mines.</p>
<p>We believe California has a chance of succeeding, and in the process, showing the way for <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/global-low-carbon-energy-technology-investment-surges-past-1-trillion-for-the-first-time/">the rest of the world</a>. In fact, most of the needed policies are already in place.</p>
<h2>What happens in California has global reach</h2>
<p>What California does matters far beyond state lines.</p>
<p>California is close to being the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-24/california-poised-to-overtake-germany-as-world-s-no-4-economy">world’s fourth-largest economy</a> and has a history of adopting environmental requirements that are imitated across the United States and the world. California has the most ambitious <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-cars-program/advanced-clean-cars-ii">zero-emission requirements</a> in the world for <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2022/12/19/zero-emission-vehicle-sales-standards-california-and-chinas-secret-weapon-on-transportation-electrification/">cars</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-passenger-cars-and-pickups-5-questions-answered-about-electrifying-trucks-192802">trucks</a> and <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/innovative-clean-transit-ict-regulation-fact-sheet">buses</a>; the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielsperling/2018/10/17/how-almost-everyone-came-to-love-low-carbon-fuels-in-california/#5880dae85e84">most ambitious</a> <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.029">low-carbon fuel requirements</a>; one of the largest <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/california-cap-and-trade/">carbon cap-and-trade programs</a>; and the most aggressive requirements for renewable electricity.</p>
<p>In the U.S., through <a href="https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2022/04/epas-revived-clean-cars-waiver-for-california/">peculiarities in national air pollution law</a>, <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/%C2%A7177_states_05132022_NADA_sales_r2_ac.pdf">other states</a> have replicated many of California’s regulations and programs so they can race ahead of national policies. States can either follow federal vehicle emissions standards or California’s stricter rules. There is no third option. An increasing number of states now follow California.</p>
<p>So, even though California contributes <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/ghg-inventory-data">less than 1%</a> of global greenhouse gas emissions, if it sets a high bar, its many technical, institutional and behavioral innovations will likely spread and be transformative.</p>
<h2>What’s in the California blueprint</h2>
<p>The new <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/ab-32-climate-change-scoping-plan/2022-scoping-plan-documents">Scoping Plan</a> lays out in considerable detail how California intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 48% below 1990 levels by 2030 and then achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.</p>
<p>It calls for a 94% reduction in petroleum use between 2022 and 2045 and an 86% reduction in total fossil fuel use. Overall, it would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2045 relative to 1990 levels. The remaining 15% reduction would come from <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/carbon-capture-sequestration/about">capturing carbon</a> from the air and fossil fuel plants, and sequestering it below ground or in forests, vegetation and soils.</p>
<p><iframe id="0IdG2" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0IdG2/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>To achieve these goals, the plan calls for a 37-fold increase in on-road zero-emission vehicles, a sixfold increase in electrical appliances in residences, a fourfold increase in installed wind and solar generation capacity, and doubling total electricity generation to run it all. It also calls for ramping up <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/green-hydrogen-explained">hydrogen power</a> and altering agriculture and forest management to reduce wildfires, sequester carbon dioxide and reduce fertilizer demand.</p>
<p>This is a massive undertaking, and it implies a massive transformation of many industries and activities. </p>
<h2>Transportation: California’s No. 1 emitter</h2>
<p>Transportation accounts for <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/about/core-responsibility-fact-sheets/transforming-transportation">about half</a> of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions, including upstream oil refinery emissions. This is where the path forward is perhaps most settled.</p>
<p>The state has already adopted regulations requiring almost all new cars, trucks and buses to have zero emissions – new <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-transitioning-all-electric-public-bus-fleet-2040">transit buses by 2029</a> and most <a href="https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/09/california-phase-out-diesel-trucks-zero-emission/">truck sales</a> and light-duty vehicle <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/going-zero">sales by 2035</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, California’s <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielsperling/2018/10/17/how-almost-everyone-came-to-love-low-carbon-fuels-in-california/?sh=6533ef3f5e84">Low Carbon Fuel Standard</a> requires oil companies to steadily reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels. This regulation aims to ensure that the liquid fuels needed for legacy cars and trucks still on the road after 2045 will be low-carbon biofuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two electric truck cabs are parked on either side of a charger with a sign reading '2 hour charging limit'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503127/original/file-20230104-90208-wfltvn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Port of Long Beach opened the nation’s first publicly accessible charging station for heavy-duty electric trucks in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-port-of-long-beach-became-the-first-in-the-nation-to-news-photo/1442603514">Brittany Murray/MediaNews Group/Long Beach Press-Telegram via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But regulations can be modified and even rescinded if opposition swells. If <a href="https://www.energy-storage.news/lithium-battery-pack-prices-go-up-for-first-time-since-bloombergnef-began-annual-survey/">battery costs</a> do not resume their downward slide, if electric utilities and others lag in providing <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/programs-and-topics/programs/clean-transportation-program/california-electric-vehicle">charging infrastructure</a>, and if local opposition blocks new charging sites and grid upgrades, the state could be forced to slow its zero-emission vehicle requirements.</p>
<p>The plan also relies on changes in human behavior. For example, it calls for a 25% reduction in vehicle miles traveled in 2030 compared with 2019, which has far dimmer prospects. The <a href="https://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/trnews/trnews341toc.pdf">only strategies</a> likely to significantly reduce vehicle use are steep charges for road use and parking, a move few politicians or voters in the U.S. would support, and a massive increase in <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17h3k4db">shared-ride automated vehicles</a>, which are not likely to scale up for at least another 10 years. Additional charges for driving and parking raise concerns about <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17h3k4db">affordability for low-income commuters</a>.</p>
<h2>Electricity and electrifying buildings</h2>
<p>The key to cutting emissions in almost every sector is electricity powered by renewable energy.</p>
<p>Electrifying most everything means not just replacing most of the state’s natural gas power plants, but also expanding <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2021-total-system-electric-generation">total electricity production</a> – in this case doubling total generation and quadrupling renewable generation, in just 22 years.</p>
<p>That amount of expansion and investment is mind-boggling – and it is the single most important change for reaching net zero, since electric vehicles and appliances depend on the availability of renewable electricity to count as zero emissions.</p>
<p>Electrification of buildings is in the early stages in California, with <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2021-08/energy-commission-adopts-updated-building-standards-improve-efficiency-reduce-0">requirements in place</a> for new homes to have rooftop solar, and incentives and regulations adopted to replace natural gas use with heat pumps and electric appliances.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man and woman stand beside a power box on a home." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503129/original/file-20230104-129951-cw7254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two microgrid communities being developed in Menifee, Calif., feature all-electric homes equipped with solar panels, heat pumps and batteries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/scott-hensen-vice-president-of-floor-planning-for-kb-home-news-photo/1244678088">Watchara Phomicinda/MediaNews Group/The Press-Enterprise via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The biggest and most important challenge is accelerating renewable electricity generation – mostly wind and utility-scale solar. The state has laws in place requiring <a href="https://trackbill.com/bill/california-senate-bill-1020-clean-energy-jobs-and-affordability-act-of-2022/2226695/">electricity</a> to be 100% <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/sb100">zero emissions by 2045</a> – up from <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2021-total-system-electric-generation">52% in 2021</a>.</p>
<p>The plan to get there includes offshore wind power, which will require new technology – floating wind turbines. The federal government in December 2022 leased the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-floating-wind-turbines-work-5-companies-just-won-the-first-us-leases-for-building-them-off-californias-coast-196103">first Pacific sites for offshore wind</a> farms, with plans to power over 1.5 million homes. However, years of technical and regulatory work are still ahead.</p>
<p>For solar power, the plan focuses on <a href="https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/renewables_data/solar/index_cms.php">large solar farms</a>, which can scale up faster and at less cost than rooftop solar. The same week the new scoping plan was announced, California’s Public Utility Commission voted to <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/nemrevisit">significantly scale back</a> how much homeowners are reimbursed for solar power they send to the grid, a policy known as net metering. The Public Utility Commission argues that because of how electricity rates are set, <a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/energy-institute/research/abstracts/wp-314/">generous rooftop solar reimbursements</a> have primarily benefited wealthier households while imposing <a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/energy-institute/research/abstracts/wp-330/">higher electricity bills</a> on others. It believes this new policy will be more equitable and create a more sustainable model.</p>
<h2>Industry and the carbon capture challenge</h2>
<p>Industry plays a smaller role, and the policies and strategies here are less refined.</p>
<p>The state’s carbon <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program">cap-and-trade program</a>, designed to ratchet down total emissions while allowing individual companies some flexibility, will tighten its emissions limits. </p>
<p>But while cap-and-trade has been <a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2018/01/02/californias-carbon-cap-is-not-in-jeopardy-because-its-not-really-a-cap/">effective to date</a>, in part by generating billions of dollars for programs and incentives to reduce emissions, its role may change as energy efficiency improves and additional rules and regulations are put in place to replace fossil fuels.</p>
<p>One of the greatest controversies throughout the Scoping Plan process is its reliance on carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS. The controversy is rooted in <a href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/epa-urged-to-reject-carbon-capture-projects-in-central-california-2022-06-29/">concern that CCS</a> allows fossil fuel facilities to continue releasing pollution while only capturing the carbon dioxide emissions. These facilities are often in or near disadvantaged communities.</p>
<h2>California’s chances of success</h2>
<p>Will California make it? The state has a track record of <a href="https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-adv-california-climate-pollution-20180722-story.html">exceeding its goals</a>, but getting to net zero by 2045 requires a sharper downward trajectory than even California has seen before, and there are still many hurdles.</p>
<p>Environmental justice concerns about carbon capture and new industrial facilities, coupled with NIMBYism, could block many needed investments. And the possibility of sluggish economic growth <a href="https://calmatters.org/california-budget/2023/01/california-budget-newsom-deficit/">could led to spending cuts</a> and might exacerbate concerns about economic disruption and affordability. </p>
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<p>There are also questions about prices and geopolitics. Will the <a href="https://www.energy-storage.news/lithium-battery-pack-prices-go-up-for-first-time-since-bloombergnef-began-annual-survey/">upturn in battery costs</a> in 2022 – due to geopolitical flare-ups, a lag in expanding the supply of critical materials, and the war in Ukraine – turn out to be a hiccup or a trend? Will electric utilities move fast enough in building the infrastructure and grid capacity needed to accommodate the projected growth in zero-emission cars and trucks?</p>
<p>It is encouraging that the state has already created just about all the needed policy infrastructure. Additional tightening of emissions limits and targets will be needed, but the framework and policy mechanisms are largely in place.</p>
<p><em>Rajinder Sahota, deputy executive officer of the California Air Resources Board, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197094/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Sperling receives funding from several foundations and government agencies, is a board member of the California Air Resources Board, and a member of the Board of Directors of the Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, an NGO. </span></em></p>California is one of the world’s largest economies, and it’s aiming for net-zero emissions by 2045. A transportation expert involved in the plan explains why it just might succeed.Daniel Sperling, Distinguished Blue Planet Prize Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Founding Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.