tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/dairy-farming-12003/articlesDairy farming – The Conversation2023-04-12T20:05:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023332023-04-12T20:05:22Z2023-04-12T20:05:22ZWhy using more fertiliser and feed does not necessarily raise dairy farm profits but increases climate harm<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520132/original/file-20230411-18-x7c3sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C216%2C3987%2C2132&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sandra Mu/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand is in an unusual position in the developed world when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions. About half of all emissions come from <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/aotearoa-new-zealands-first-emissions-reduction-plan/agriculture/">agriculture</a>, and almost a quarter can be attributed to biological emissions (nitrous oxide and methane) from the <a href="https://www.dairynz.co.nz/environment/agricultural-greenhouse-gases/greenhouse-gases-on-farm/">dairy sector</a>.</p>
<p>The latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/ar6-syr/">synthesis report</a> released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>) in March highlights the challenges climate change <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/486426/new-zealand-urged-not-to-drop-the-climate-ball-in-wake-of-latest-ipcc-report">presents for New Zealand</a>. And it clearly illustrates the benefits of cutting emissions sooner rather than later. </p>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>Dairy farming in New Zealand was traditionally characterised as a pasture-based and low-input system. </p>
<p>However, in recent times, dairy farmers have intensified production, largely by using <a href="https://www.dairynz.co.nz/feed/supplements/common-feed-supplements/">more fertiliser and supplementary feed</a> (palm kernel expeller, silage and concentrate) to improve farm performance. Dairy farming has also expanded into less naturally suited regions, which has required greater inputs.</p>
<p>This increase in the use of supplementary feed has occurred not only to feed a growing dairy cow population, which has almost doubled since 1990 to 6.4 million, but also to accommodate more intensive farming systems.</p>
<iframe title="New Zealand's herd size for dairy and beef cattle" aria-label="Grouped Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-aW4Hr" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aW4Hr/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="494" data-external="1"></iframe>
<p>Dairy farming is by far the largest consumer of supplementary feed. In 2022, New Zealand used around 5.8 million tonnes of grain and feed. <a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/new-zealand-new-zealand-grain-and-feed-market-situation-0">Imports far exceeded</a> domestic production (3.7 million compared with 2.1 million tonnes, respectively). </p>
<p>Dairy cows consumed around 75% of the total grain and feed. In comparison, the poultry sector and people consumed 12% and 9% of the total, respectively. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s capability to import feed from other countries promotes dairy farming intensification, directly contributing to climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A herd of dairy cows feeding on supplementary feed." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520133/original/file-20230411-26-zzulkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520133/original/file-20230411-26-zzulkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520133/original/file-20230411-26-zzulkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520133/original/file-20230411-26-zzulkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520133/original/file-20230411-26-zzulkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520133/original/file-20230411-26-zzulkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520133/original/file-20230411-26-zzulkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dairy cows eat 75% of the 5.8 million metric tons of grain and feed New Zealand produced or imported last year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sandra Mu/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Profit versus planet</h2>
<p>It may seem that supplementary feed is being used to increase production and profitability within the sector and that what we are faced with is a classic trade-off between financial performance and the environment (emissions to air and water) and other factors such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2018-16039">animal health and welfare</a>. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12283">research</a> on New Zealand’s experience with feed-use intensification suggests dairy farmers who use more supplementary feed are more technically efficient than those who use less. This means they are able to produce more output for each unit of input. This contributes to higher production of milk solids (by 6.3% to 14.2%) and revenue (by 6.3% and 15.6%). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-farming-proposal-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-involves-a-lot-of-trust-and-a-lot-of-uncertainty-185121">A new farming proposal to reduce carbon emissions involves a lot of trust – and a lot of uncertainty</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There are other benefits associated with supplementary feed which may encourage its use. For example, supplementary feed helps fill feed deficits (periods when there is not sufficient pasture growth) so that milking cows <a href="https://www.dairynz.co.nz/feed/supplements/supplementary-feed/">maintain energy intake and production</a>. Supplementary feed can also be used to improve the health of dairy cows and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anifeedsci.2018.05.011">milk quality</a>. </p>
<p>But our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12261">further research</a> shows that while feed-use intensification boosts production, costs also rise significantly (by 10.9% to 24.3%). This ultimately leads to a reduced <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/profitmargin.asp">profit margin</a> (by 7.4% to 17.4%). </p>
<h2>Significant changes ahead</h2>
<p>Dairy farm profitability is jointly determined by the price and output of milk solids and the costs and quantity of production inputs such as feed. As price-takers, dairy farmers can neither directly control the variations in input prices (such as feed prices) nor influence the price of milk. </p>
<p>To increase profitability, farmers must increase the production of milk solids while managing inputs more efficiently. However, other operating expenses increase when systems become more reliant on supplementary feeds. These increases are generally larger than the increases in milk-solids production, thereby reducing profit, on average. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A farmer mixes dry feed for the cows at a dairy farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520134/original/file-20230411-18-3zv2hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520134/original/file-20230411-18-3zv2hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520134/original/file-20230411-18-3zv2hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520134/original/file-20230411-18-3zv2hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520134/original/file-20230411-18-3zv2hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520134/original/file-20230411-18-3zv2hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520134/original/file-20230411-18-3zv2hv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Operating costs increase when a farm becomes reliant on supplementary feeds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sandra Mu/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not all supplementary feeds are equal. Palm kernel expeller (PKE) is widely used as a supplement feed by dairy farmers and it has been shown to embody <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/28329-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-farm-systems-with-increasing-use-of-supplementary-feeds-across-different-regions-of-new-zealand">high emissions</a> (0.51kg CO₂-equivalent per kg of dry matter) compared with other feeds. </p>
<p>New Zealand is the biggest importer of PKE in the world. In 2022, imports were higher than in the previous three years, at more than 2 million tonnes. </p>
<p>Around 54% of PKE used on dairy farms was <a href="https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2023/02/10/New-Zealand-dairy-sector-still-heavily-reliant-on-imported-palm-kernel-expeller">imported from Indonesia and Malaysia</a>. It is widely claimed that exporting PKE to New Zealand has <a href="https://nzfarmlife.co.nz/pressure-to-end-deforestation/">contributed to deforestation in supplying countries</a>, increasing emissions and risks from climate change. Other concerns have also been raised, for example around PKE’s impacts on animal health.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/palm-kernel-product-imported-for-use-on-dairy-farms-may-actually-be-harmful-to-cows-196569">Palm kernel product imported for use on dairy farms may actually be harmful to cows</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The dairy industry is well aware of these challenges and much effort has been put into encouraging farmers to adopt practices that can save them money while reducing overall emissions. These often focus on maximising the <a href="https://www.dairynz.co.nz/environment/on-farm-actions/reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions/">yield from pasture</a> and using <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/28329-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-farm-systems-with-increasing-use-of-supplementary-feeds-across-different-regions-of-new-zealand">less carbon-intensive feeds</a> such as homegrown feeds or byproducts of food and drink production.</p>
<p>The reason why there hasn’t been more progress may be in part because farmers are “locked in” to the current systems through what economists call path dependency. Investments have been made in both human and physical capital, and for many farms, debts have to be serviced. Therefore it is not a case that simply reducing the level of supplementary feed will reduce emissions and maintain profitability.</p>
<p>Reversing the trends requires significant changes to both management practices and physical infrastructure. High fertiliser prices, stricter regulations and the pricing of emissions may encourage this transition, but it may also be time to rethink the role supplementary feed has in our dairy systems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202333/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Renwick has received funding for projects with MPI, MBIE and DairyNZ</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Blackman Bicknell and Wanglin Ma do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Dairy farming in New Zealand has intensified by using more supplementary feed. While this boosts production, costs also rise and this ultimately cuts profits - and it adds more harm to the climate.Wanglin Ma, Associate Professor of Economics, Lincoln University, New ZealandAlan Renwick, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Lincoln University, New ZealandKathryn Blackman Bicknell, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lincoln University, New ZealandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2035862023-04-12T20:04:44Z2023-04-12T20:04:44ZResearch reveals a 3,500-year history of dairy consumption on the Tibetan Plateau<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520441/original/file-20230412-28-7dhvoi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C38%2C3206%2C2114&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s not called the <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/third-pole-climate-warming-and-cryosphere-system-changes#">Third Pole</a> for nothing. The Tibetan Plateau forms the major portion of a vast upland area of ice and glaciers that covers some 100,000 square kilometres of Earth’s surface. </p>
<p>It is a cold, arid and unforgiving landscape that couldn’t be more different from the warm plains and valleys that gave rise to our species.</p>
<p>Yet, for thousands of years the Tibetan Plateau has been occupied by <em>Homo sapiens</em>. It has seen the establishment of agricultural societies, and the growth of religions, kingdoms and even empire.</p>
<p>How humans managed not just to subsist but to thrive in this high-altitude landscape is a question that has challenged researchers for decades – and one that has captivated us too. </p>
<p>We know part of the answer lies in Tibetan genes, and a <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/accumulating-glitches/how_tibetans_ancestors_adapted_to/">unique adaptation</a> that enables people living in the region to use oxygen more efficiently, avoiding the potentially lethal effects of hypoxia (the condition that arises from a lack of oxygen).</p>
<p>But just as important as avoiding hypoxia was finding enough food in the plateau’s unpredictable, freezing and hyper-arid environment.</p>
<p>Our research, <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adf0345">published today</a> in Science Advances, set out to look more closely at early Tibetan diets. To do this, we examined ancient dental plaque, a rich source of dietary information.</p>
<p>Our results show one food in particular may have been crucial to sustained human occupation and expansion across the Tibetan Plateau: milk.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520447/original/file-20230412-296-74mdxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520447/original/file-20230412-296-74mdxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520447/original/file-20230412-296-74mdxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520447/original/file-20230412-296-74mdxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520447/original/file-20230412-296-74mdxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520447/original/file-20230412-296-74mdxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520447/original/file-20230412-296-74mdxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520447/original/file-20230412-296-74mdxy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Modern pastures on the highland Tibetan Plateau.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Li Tang</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The benefits of not brushing</h2>
<p>Without dentists, ancient people often accumulated thick layers of plaque – also known as calculus – on their teeth. Using a new method called palaeoproteomics, scientists can investigate the food proteins that became trapped and preserved in ancient people’s dental plaque. </p>
<p>Palaeoproteomics allows us to look at types of food, such as milk, that aren’t visible through traditional archaeological approaches, and to identify specific individuals who were consuming them.</p>
<p>Our study analysed all available human skeletal remains on the plateau: a total of 40 individuals, dating to between 3500 and 1200 years ago, from 15 widely dispersed sites. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520433/original/file-20230412-26-bnhy3n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520433/original/file-20230412-26-bnhy3n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520433/original/file-20230412-26-bnhy3n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520433/original/file-20230412-26-bnhy3n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520433/original/file-20230412-26-bnhy3n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520433/original/file-20230412-26-bnhy3n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520433/original/file-20230412-26-bnhy3n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520433/original/file-20230412-26-bnhy3n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the individuals we studied was a woman, aged 40-55, buried at the Ounie site. Hers were the highest altitude (4654 masl) remains studied, dated to around 601-758 CE.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Li
Tang and Zujun Chen</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our work yielded fascinating results. Preserved in the teeth of many of these people were fragments of proteins derived from milk products. The protein sequences showed the milk originated from domestic herd animals: sheep, goat and probably yak. </p>
<p>We could see dairy foods were consumed by a wide swathe of Tibetan Plateau society, including adults and children, elites and everyday people. Dairy was even present in the earliest Tibetan Plateau skeletons we looked at. </p>
<p>In fact, we found dairy was being consumed as far back as 3,500 years ago – pushing evidence for dairying on the plateau back 2,000 years earlier than records in historical sources, such as the 8th- and 9th-century <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780190622671.001.0001/acref-9780190622671-e-670;jsessionid=921CE6414F8F46DF62C6EF4396088722">Tongdian encyclopedia</a>.</p>
<p>Evidence for dairying now corresponds with the earliest evidence for domesticated herd animals on the Tibetan Plateau, which suggests dairying and pastoralism spread together in this region.</p>
<h2>Pushing beyond the cultivation boundary</h2>
<p>Our results showed another interesting pattern: all the milk peptides we identified came from ancient individuals in the highest altitude parts of the plateau. These were the most inhospitable areas, where growing crops was difficult. </p>
<p>In the southern-central and southeastern valleys, where farmable land was available, we did not recover any dairy proteins from people’s calculus.</p>
<p>Dairy, it seems, was vital to human occupation of the parts of the plateau that lay beyond the reach of even frost-tolerant crops. This is a vast area, as less than 1% of the Tibetan Plateau supports crop cultivation.</p>
<p>In the lower-lying areas, long-term habitation has been sustained by cultivating plant foods. But across most of the plateau, the primary mode of subsistence has been pastoralism.</p>
<h2>Dairy-free? Not an option</h2>
<p>While dairy would eventually become central to Tibetan cuisine and culture, our results suggest it was initially adopted out of necessity. It allowed people in the Tibetan Plateau’s most extreme environments to turn the energy locked inside alpine meadow grasses into a protein-rich, nutritional food that was endlessly renewable – because animals weren’t killed to acquire it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520443/original/file-20230412-26-33hyof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520443/original/file-20230412-26-33hyof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520443/original/file-20230412-26-33hyof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520443/original/file-20230412-26-33hyof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520443/original/file-20230412-26-33hyof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520443/original/file-20230412-26-33hyof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520443/original/file-20230412-26-33hyof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520443/original/file-20230412-26-33hyof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Today, dairy is an important part of modern Tibetan food and culture.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Li Tang</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Dairying opened up the Tibetan Plateau to the spread and sustained growth of human populations, which ultimately enabled the emergence of substantial cultural complexity.</p>
<p>In one of Earth’s most inhospitable environments, then, it would appear dairy-free was not an option.</p>
<p>Future work on the plateau will be vital to understanding how the human adoption of pastoralism and dairying reshaped Tibet’s landscapes. And just as critically, it will shed light on what human-induced climate change means for the future of the ecosystems present-day herders rely on.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520445/original/file-20230412-18-6lk30.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520445/original/file-20230412-18-6lk30.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520445/original/file-20230412-18-6lk30.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520445/original/file-20230412-18-6lk30.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520445/original/file-20230412-18-6lk30.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520445/original/file-20230412-18-6lk30.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520445/original/file-20230412-18-6lk30.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520445/original/file-20230412-18-6lk30.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Modern Tibetan pastoralists make butter from yak milk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Li Tang</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-midnight-digs-at-a-holy-tibetan-cave-opened-a-window-to-prehistoric-humans-living-on-the-roof-of-the-world-148927">How midnight digs at a holy Tibetan cave opened a window to prehistoric humans living on the roof of the world</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers looked at the skeletal remains of 40 people, and found evidence of dairy consumption across a wide swathe of early Tibetan society.Nicole Boivin, Professor, Max Planck Institute of GeoanthropologyLi Tang, Doctoral researcher, Max Planck Institute of GeoanthropologyMichael Petraglia, Director, Australian Research Centre for Human Evolution, Griffith UniversityShevan Wilkin, Researcher at the Institute for Evolutionary Medicine, University of ZurichLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1965692022-12-22T19:08:22Z2022-12-22T19:08:22ZPalm kernel product imported for use on dairy farms may actually be harmful to cows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502499/original/file-20221222-23-2fjp6o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C49%2C5476%2C3590&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Sheryl Watson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Each year, New Zealand imports about 2 million tonnes of palm kernel expeller (<a href="https://www.dairynz.co.nz/feed/supplements/palm-kernel-extract-pke/">PKE</a>), a by-product of palm-oil processing in Indonesia and Malaysia, to feed dairy cows, at a cost of NZ$800 million. </p>
<p>But our <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/23/15752">research</a> shows PKE contains concentrations of some elements that may be harmful to cows. </p>
<p>We analysed the chemical composition of several batches of PKE imported into New Zealand over two years. We found it contained concentrations of iron, magnesium and phosphorus that exceeded safe levels for dairy cattle health. Some batches contained concentrations of aluminium, copper, sulphur and potassium within 90% of their safe limits. </p>
<p>These elements may have both positive and negative effects on the health of dairy cows and soils. But there is no monitoring and our research shows the chemical composition of different batches imported into New Zealand is highly variable. </p>
<p>Copper in PKE may be helpful in treating <a href="https://www.fertiliser.org.nz/includes/download.ashx?ID=153081">widespread deficiencies</a> of this element in New Zealand’s farming systems. Similarly, magnesium in PKE may offset the <a href="https://actavetscand.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1751-0147-43-1">need to supplement this element</a> for lactating dairy cows. </p>
<p>PKE may be a source of fertilising nutrients into soils. It contains high concentrations of phosphorus, which will improve pasture growth when deposited on the soil in animals’ manure.</p>
<p>However, the concentrations of iron, aluminium, potassium and sulphur in PKE may cause nutrient imbalances in dairy cows. The actual effects on dairy farms, soils and milk are yet unknown. Other <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23316417/">evidence</a> suggests these chemical elements, when eaten by cows, may <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11467824/">end up in milk</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/11-000-litres-of-water-to-make-one-litre-of-milk-new-questions-about-the-freshwater-impact-of-nz-dairy-farming-183806">11,000 litres of water to make one litre of milk? New questions about the freshwater impact of NZ dairy farming</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>PKE in the New Zealand environment</h2>
<p>Currently, <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/acts-and-regulations/freshwater-implementation-guidance/freshwater-farm-plans/">environmental regulations</a> require farmers to quantify every input to their farms in order to meet nutrient budgets to stay within freshwater quality standards. When the composition of PKE changes batch by batch, it becomes very difficult to quantify farm inputs and meet farm-nutrient budgets.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/our-stories/media/fat-evaluation-index-grading-system-to-begin-september-2018.html">Fonterra</a> and <a href="https://www.synlait.com/news/synlait-commits-to-a-sustainable-future-with-bold-targets/">Synlait</a>, two of New Zealand’s largest dairy companies, actively discourage the use of PKE because it can <a href="https://doi.org/10.4314/sajas.v47i2.14">change milk composition</a>, giving it a higher fat content. </p>
<p>However, it remains widely used due to feed shortages. Potentially, PKE use could be offset by reusing some of the more than 2 million tonnes of food and food-processing waste New Zealand produces annually.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Workers on a palm oil plantation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502504/original/file-20221222-22-ijiv1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502504/original/file-20221222-22-ijiv1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502504/original/file-20221222-22-ijiv1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502504/original/file-20221222-22-ijiv1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502504/original/file-20221222-22-ijiv1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502504/original/file-20221222-22-ijiv1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502504/original/file-20221222-22-ijiv1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palm kernel expeller is a by-product of palm oil processing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Yogie Hizkia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Palm oil production</h2>
<p>Even if PKE were proven to be beneficial to New Zealand agriculture, there is still the ethical question of whether New Zealand should be supporting an industry with unsustainable production patterns.</p>
<p>The production of palm oil has been <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125012/meta">linked to</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159668">deforestation</a> in tropical rainforests in Indonesia, as more and more land is needed to produce this increasingly common commodity used in everyday foods and personal-care products. </p>
<p>Even when PKE is certified by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil – a certification program for palm oil growers, suppliers and users – <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1704728114">research</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac6f4">has shown</a> this palm oil is no different to any other in terms of social, environmental and economic outcomes for people and the environment. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-papua-forests-offer-more-economic-benefits-than-oil-palm-plantations-research-finds-130708">In Papua, forests offer more economic benefits than oil palm plantations, research finds</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Palm oil plantation next to rainforest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502506/original/file-20221222-23-46ewr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502506/original/file-20221222-23-46ewr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502506/original/file-20221222-23-46ewr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502506/original/file-20221222-23-46ewr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502506/original/file-20221222-23-46ewr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502506/original/file-20221222-23-46ewr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502506/original/file-20221222-23-46ewr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The production of palm oil has been linked to deforestation in tropical rainforests in Indonesia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Rich Carey</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2019/07/top-court-holds-indonesian-government-liable-over-2015-forest-fires/?fbclid=IwAR2aLmWFEMkgzrklP9_KMAx-S34Grrhi8DokED76drtlU13-unlqAgqLu0o">2015</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/indonesia-province-shuts-schools-haze-fires-returns-191014110403074.html">2019</a>, Indonesia gained media attention for forest fires to clear land for palm oil production, resulting in air pollution in neighbouring countries. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2019/08/81-of-indonesias-oil-palm-plantations-flouting-regulations-audit-finds/">audit</a> by the Indonesian government in 2018 found 81% of palm oil plantations were breaching environmental regulations. Breaches included failing to obtain permits, not complying with sustainability standards and encroachment into surrounding protected forests. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s support of this industry is controversial, especially when there are potential alternatives.</p>
<h2>Possible alternatives to PKE</h2>
<p>New Zealand imports more PKE than the European Union. There are possible alternatives made in New Zealand that currently end up in landfill, including biowaste from the food and beverage sector. This waste includes leftover products from potato processing, wine making, brewing and other food-processing industries.</p>
<p>By importing PKE, New Zealand is forgoing the opportunity to use these locally produced waste materials as animal feeds and to avoid greenhouse gas emissions produced when they are sent to the landfill. </p>
<p>There is an opportunity here to repurpose food waste and the nutrients it contains for New Zealand’s primary sector. This is the subject of <a href="https://www.canterbury.ac.nz/news/2021/new-kiwi-research-to-turn-biowaste-into-economic-boost-.html">ongoing research</a> at the University of Canterbury, Lincoln University, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research and ESR.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196569/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hadee Thompson-Morrison received funding from the Centre for Integrated Biowaste Research funded by the Strategic Science Investment Funding from Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, New Zealand (contract C03X1701). She is affiliated with Darwin Animal Doctors and Sumatra Community & Conservation Trust. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sally Gaw previously received funding from Auckland Regional Council, Tasman District Council and Waikato Regional Council to investigate accumulation of trace elements in agricultural soils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Robinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Several batches of palm kernel product imported for dairy farms contained certain chemicals above a safe limit – and there’s an ethical quandary in supporting an industry linked with deforestation.Hadee Thompson-Morrison, PhD Candidate in Environmental Science, University of CanterburyBrett Robinson, Professor of Environmental Chemistry, University of CanterburySally Gaw, Director of Environmental Science, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1760172022-02-13T07:14:55Z2022-02-13T07:14:55ZKenya’s dairy sector is failing to meet domestic demand. How it can raise its game<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443382/original/file-20220131-19-zr8ug8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A consumer shops for milk products in a Nairobi supermarket. Simon Maina/ AFP via</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/consumer-shops-for-brookside-dairy-milk-products-in-a-news-photo/452832836?adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kenya’s dairy sector is estimated at <a href="https://climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/brief_3_-_enhancing_investment_attractiveness_of_kenya_dairy_sector.pdf">14% of Kenya’s agricultural GDP</a>. Milk is primarily produced by smallholder dairy farmers who account for 56% of total output. It is estimated that the sector has 1.8 million smallholder farmers (about 80% of producers). The remaining 44% of milk output comes from large commercial farmers. </p>
<p>Kenya has three main production systems. Intensive production where animals are fully housed (zero-grazed); open grazing where animals roam fields; and semi-intensive systems where animals are partly zero-grazed and taken to fields.</p>
<p>Dairy cattle in Kenya consist of indigenous and exotic breeds; as well as crosses between the two varieties. There are more than <a href="https://globalresearchalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2020-09-02_Livestock-sub-sector-NDC-report_FINAL.pdf">five million dairy cattle</a> producing an estimated <a href="https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Economic-Survey-2021.pdf">four billion litres</a> of milk annually. Milk production is projected to grow by <a href="https://www.ilri.org/news/kenyan-livestock-sector-grow-%E2%80%98exponentially%E2%80%99%E2%80%94kenya-national-bureau-statistics">about 150% by 2050</a>. </p>
<p>Kenya has the highest per capita <a href="https://climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/brief_3_-_enhancing_investment_attractiveness_of_kenya_dairy_sector.pdf">milk consumption</a> in sub-Saharan Africa, at 110 litres. The demand, currently at 8 billion litres, is also expected to grow with the population increase. </p>
<p>The government has therefore prioritised the industry in national strategy and plans, such as the Agricultural Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy (2019-2029) and the president’s <a href="https://big4.delivery.go.ke/">Big Four Agenda</a>. There’s also a <a href="https://kilimo.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/DMP-VOL-ll-STRATEGIES-AND-ACTION-PLANS.pdf">dairy master plan</a> to guide the development of the industry up to 2030. </p>
<p>But the sector faces significant challenges that affect the realisation of its full potential. As a result, Kenya has to <a href="https://infotradekenya.go.ke/procedure/830?l=en">import</a> from neighbouring countries to meet demand.</p>
<p>One of the reasons is the low average annual <a href="https://www.kdb.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Cost-of-milk-production-report..pdf">dairy productivity</a> which ranges between six to eight litres per cow per day. It is important to highlight that productivity varies with production systems. The highest productivity is attained under intensive production systems. A low level of productivity increases the cost of production and affects the competitiveness of the industry.</p>
<h2>Choice of breeds</h2>
<p>Based on our <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Timothy-Njagi-2">studies</a> at the Egerton University’s <a href="https://www.tegemeo.org/working-papers">Tegemeo Institute</a>, the dairy industry in Kenya is yet to reach its potential. To make it competitive, all players must work together to improve productivity at farm and improve efficiency of dairy markets.</p>
<p>Firstly, a dairy animal’s milk yield is determined by its genetic composition. Exotic cows produce much higher volumes compared to indigenous breeds. But indigenous breeds are hardier and are able to withstand harsh conditions.</p>
<p>The choice of breed is informed by production system, ability, experience or expertise of the farmer, and environmental factors such as climate. Artificial Insemination is the most preferred method to improve animal breeds. The artificial insemination was previously offered by the government but the service was privatised in the late 1980s as part of Kenya’s <a href="https://aercafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/RP124.pdf">Structural Adjustment Programs</a>. This was meant to improve the reach to farmers by private service providers. </p>
<p>The government supports the AI service providers by subsidising prices. The number of service providers has significantly improved, cost of the service has dropped and the access distance reduced. However, the quality of services still varies across regions. </p>
<p>Improving regulation and supervision of insemination, and enhancing the supply of supporting infrastructure such as semen storage, will improve the genetic composition of dairy animals. </p>
<h2>Feed quality and cost</h2>
<p>Secondly, feeds are essential to dairy productivity. Dairy farmers grapple with low quality and high cost of feeds. <a href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/vmi/2020/3262370/">Studies</a> show that improving the quality of fodder significantly improves milk productivity. </p>
<p>Fodder varies in quality based on nutrients. <a href="https://www.kalro.org/sites/default/files/Proceeding-Climate-Smart-Brachiaria-Grasses-Dec2016.pdf">High quality fodder</a> are grown. Fodder yield depends on seed quality and farm level agronomic practices. Furthermore, a farmer must have know-how on mixing different types of fodder to attain the nutrition level required by the animal. Therefore, improving farmers’ knowledge is critical. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.kdb.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Cost-of-milk-production-report..pdf">cost</a> of feed and fodder varies by the production system. In intensive production systems, feed and fodder account for 55% of the cost of producing a litre of milk, while it’s 44% in open grazing systems and 37% in semi-intensive systems. For producers under intensive systems, the high costs erode profitability despite productivity being highest.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/business/article/2001422908/high-cost-of-feeds-drives-farmers-out-of-dairy-and-poultry-business">Rising costs of commercial feeds</a> drive the cost of production up. <a href="https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/data-hub/farmers-anguish-as-feed-costs-go-through-the-roof-3696476">Feed prices have continued to rise</a> even after government <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001431676/government-allows-importation-of-duty-free-livestock-raw-feeds">waived</a> the duty on imported raw materials.</p>
<p>There’s also policies such as the ban on genetically modified products which <a href="https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/market-news/imports-of-yellow-maize-for-feeds-stall-on-gmo-free-rule-3672406">prevent feed manufacturers from accessing cheaper raw materials</a>.</p>
<h2>Extension services</h2>
<p>Animal husbandry plays a critical factor in improving productivity. This is directly affected by farmers’ access to extension services. Farmers in high potential dairy production areas have formed cooperatives. These provide extension services in some areas following the collapse of government services. </p>
<p>However, this strategy primarily benefits farmers in high dairy production areas, mainly under extensive systems and partly in semi-extensive systems. Development partners and civil society organisations have further strengthened the role of cooperatives in delivering knowledge and technologies to farmers.</p>
<p>Cooperatives have suffered from governance problems, causing exit of members. The Ministry of agriculture in December 2021, reviewed the Cooperative Act in a bid to tighten the policy framework. But a stricter supervision and punishment for those abusing position of trust, can improve appeal of the societies.</p>
<h2>Animal health</h2>
<p>Animal health affects both productivity of milking heads and the quality of milk. Responsibility for animal health is shared between the national and county governments. Both have been working to enhance disease monitoring and surveillance by launching vaccination campaigns, especially in the open grazing areas. Regulation of veterinary service providers remains critical, especially as it pertains to safety.</p>
<p>Issues such as <a href="https://www.aasciences.africa/news/antimicrobial-status-human-animal-interface-kenya">microbial</a> resistance in both humans and animals has been linked to misuse of medicines. The government has a <a href="https://www.health.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Kenya-AMR-Containment-Policy-_Final_April.pdf">policy</a> to address this. However, stringent implementation of measures on animal health and food safety is required. </p>
<h2>Marketing</h2>
<p>The marketing of milk and dairy products remains a key talking point for the industry. The informal market dominates the raw milk segment. This is because there are a large number of smallholder producers who are not organised in groups or cooperatives. </p>
<p>The informal market, however, offers a higher return to producers. A key criticism is that the milk is unsafe due to poor handling or adulteration. Defining and enforcing food safety standards for milk value chain can improve safety. </p>
<p>The standards should define how milk is handled, transported and packaged. Awareness among actors and consumers in the informal market could have greater results in ensuring the safety of milk to consumers. </p>
<p>Government policy encourages value addition and processing by cooperatives, but progress has been slow because of market concentration at processing. The largest processor controls more than a <a href="https://www.tegemeo.org/images/_tegemeo_institute/downloads/publications/policy_briefs/policy%20brief_%20no.%2024%20-%20dairy.pdf">third of the market</a>, and two processors control two-thirds of the market. The regulator should regularly monitor changes in market structure to ensure farmers receive competitive prices. </p>
<p>To support cooperatives in value addition, both the national and county governments have distributed milk coolers to cooperatives. However, most of these remain collection centres for processors, and few have engaged in processing. Besides, milk imports and dairy products from neighbouring countries such as Uganda, are favoured by consumers because of lower prices.</p>
<h2>Capital</h2>
<p>Other key challenges affecting the sector include access to capital for both farmers and value chain actors. This prevents critical investments in the industry. Furthermore, supply of public goods such as improved rural roads adversely affects the collection and delivery of milk, especially during the rainy seasons. </p>
<p>To revitalise the dairy industry, improving coordination across the government and stakeholders in the industry is a first step. Next, the government must address the policy incoherence in the industry.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Njagi Njeru does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The industry is in the hands of smallholder farmers who struggle to raise capital and practise good farming.Timothy Njagi Njeru, Research Fellow, Tegemeo Institute, Egerton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1593082021-05-24T13:31:09Z2021-05-24T13:31:09ZHow plant-based diets could help prevent the next COVID-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401757/original/file-20210519-13-tza0wa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=34%2C5%2C3783%2C2404&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eating less animal proteins may help reduce the risk of future zoonotic viruses.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Seth Perlman)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Viruses like COVID-19, SARS, bovine spongiform, swine flu and avian flu all have something in common: They all come from animals, described by scientists as <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/onehealth/basics/zoonotic-diseases.html">zoonotic diseases</a>. </p>
<p>Yet, these diseases do not really “come from animals.” After all, it is not like animals conspire against humans, throwing COVID-19 over the backyard fence. When we say this pandemic “comes from animals,” it means that these diseases come from the way society raises, harvests and eats animals. </p>
<p>A well-rounded policy strategy for avoiding the next pandemic should include reducing the demand for animal products. Fortunately, an effective approach need not imply government telling people what they should or should not eat. </p>
<p>Many Canadians are already aware of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-canadians-lead-the-charge-to-a-meatless-canada-93225">benefits of a plant-based diet</a>. Doing a better job at supporting those already trying to make a dietary change could be an effective approach for government policy. </p>
<h2>Zoonosis and food production</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cows and their calves graze in a pasture on a farm in Alberta" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401763/original/file-20210519-17-4672cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401763/original/file-20210519-17-4672cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401763/original/file-20210519-17-4672cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401763/original/file-20210519-17-4672cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401763/original/file-20210519-17-4672cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401763/original/file-20210519-17-4672cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401763/original/file-20210519-17-4672cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Policies that strengthen animal health and increase monitoring and regulation in food production may reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The fact that a growing list of pandemics originate exclusively within the animal and agricultural sectors is nothing new to a small but growing group of independent scientists. The United Nations recently voiced a similar concern. </p>
<p>In its report, <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/report/preventing-future-zoonotic-disease-outbreaks-protecting-environment-animals-and">Preventing the Next Pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission</a>, the UN laid out some of the things needed for improving health governance in relation to food production. </p>
<p>Some of the policy options include expanding scientific inquiry into the environmental dimensions of zoonotic diseases and developing and implementing stronger biosecurity measures. It calls for policies that strengthen animal health (including wildlife health services) and increased capacity in monitoring and regulating food production. </p>
<p>The report also recommends that states find ways to reduce demand for animal protein. Reducing the demand for meat is not something we often hear as a possible policy option — partly because people may not link our current pandemic to the western diet or agricultural sector. </p>
<h2>Origins of a pandemic</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A bat hanging upside-down" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401764/original/file-20210519-17-1fjij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401764/original/file-20210519-17-1fjij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401764/original/file-20210519-17-1fjij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401764/original/file-20210519-17-1fjij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401764/original/file-20210519-17-1fjij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401764/original/file-20210519-17-1fjij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401764/original/file-20210519-17-1fjij1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A researcher releases a bat after taking a blood sample for coronavirus research at Sai Yok National Park in Thailand in August 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Early cases of COVID-19 <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/332197/WHO-2019-nCoV-FAQ-Virus_origin-2020.1-eng.pdf">were linked to markets in China where wild animals were sold</a>. Pangolins and bats <a href="https://www.ed.ac.uk/roslin/news-events/latest-news/study-gives-clues-on-animal-origin-of-coronavirus">have been identified as possible sources of infection</a>, neither of which is on the shopping lists of the average global consumer. The deeper roots of this pandemic, however, are more complicated.</p>
<p>Many earlier viruses have originated in the animal husbandry industrial production chain. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>In the 1980s the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45906585">United Kingdom’s cattle production began to see outbreaks of Bovine spongiform encephalopathy</a> (mad cow disease), and <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2118418-many-more-people-could-still-die-from-mad-cow-disease-in-the-uk/">its human equivalent variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>In <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20051129155319/http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/Timeline_28_10a.pdf">1997, the bird flu (H5N1) was traced to chicken factories in China</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>In 2009, <a href="https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-6-207">the swine flu (H1N1) originated in pig farms in Mexico </a> and <a href="https://www.wired.com/2009/05/swineflufarm/">North Carolina in the United States</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>More recently, a possible <a href="https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/">new strain of COVID-19 has been found in farms in Denmark</a>, where mink are raised for fur coats.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It is clear that the origins of these pandemics are not restricted to certain countries or certain practices, such as “<a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/coronavirus-linked-to-chinese-wet-markets">wet-markets</a>.” For some researchers, including Swedish chief physician and infectious diseases professor Björn Olsen, stemming rising demand for meat and dairy is a necessary part of reducing our risk for pandemics. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401761/original/file-20210519-21-1r0kyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="White chickens in cages at a chicken farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401761/original/file-20210519-21-1r0kyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401761/original/file-20210519-21-1r0kyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401761/original/file-20210519-21-1r0kyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401761/original/file-20210519-21-1r0kyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401761/original/file-20210519-21-1r0kyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401761/original/file-20210519-21-1r0kyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401761/original/file-20210519-21-1r0kyop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1997 H5N1 bird flu was traced to chicken factories in China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Aleksandra Sagan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Olsen, who is well known for being an <a href="https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7522447">early critic of his government’s COVID-19 response</a>, is now becoming known for another early warning — one he has been making in books and articles for nearly 10 years now. In a <a href="https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/P9A1db/professorn-inga-pandemier-om-alla-hade-varit-vegetarianer">recent interview in Swedish,</a> Olsen notes that pandemic viruses have all arisen where animals and humans meet, and raising billions of animals as food will have effects. </p>
<p>Consider all this in reverse: not a single pandemic in human history has been traced to plants. </p>
<p>While strengthening regulatory and monitoring capacity is an important part of an effective policy strategy, when societies replace animal sources of food with plant-based foods, they also reduce the risk of future pandemics. Olsen worries the link between the rising demand for animal protein and pandemics is not getting enough attention from politicians. </p>
<h2>Plant-based diet as policy</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Farm equipment harvesting soybeans" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401759/original/file-20210519-19-aidkos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401759/original/file-20210519-19-aidkos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401759/original/file-20210519-19-aidkos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401759/original/file-20210519-19-aidkos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401759/original/file-20210519-19-aidkos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401759/original/file-20210519-19-aidkos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401759/original/file-20210519-19-aidkos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Soybeans being harvested in Illinois. There has never been a pandemic virus traced back to plants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Michael Conroy, File)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A reason why politicians might not see a move towards a plant-based diet as a viable policy option could be because it relies on changing peoples’ behaviour, and some would argue that governments should not be in the business of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/27/no-biden-has-not-declared-war-on-meat-but-maybe-thats-what-the-world-needs">trying to impose dietary choices</a>. Yet there is good reason to think that people are already open to transitioning to a plant-based diet. </p>
<p>According to a recent <a href="https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/climate-and-disaster-resilience-/The-Peoples-Climate-Vote-Results.html">UN survey</a>, 30 per cent of the world supports a plant-based diet as a climate policy. Canadians are not an exception. In fact, nearly <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/more-than-3-million-canadians-vegetarian-or-vegan-study-1.4027606">10 per cent of Canada’s total population is already vegan or vegetarian</a>, according to a <a href="https://cdn.dal.ca/content/dam/dalhousie/pdf/management/News/News%20%26%20Events/Charlebois%20Somogyi%20Music%20EN%20Plant-Based%20Study.pdf">2018 study</a> led by Sylvain Charlebois, a professor of food distribution and policy at Dalhousie University. The number of people attempting to eat plant-based diets is growing fast. In an <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/02/18/news/young-canadians-are-becoming-vegetarian-or-vegan-fight-climate-change">interview</a>, Charlebois noted: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In 2018 we estimated that 6.4 million Canadians already follow a diet that restricts meat partially or completely … But now we’ve already revised this number to 10.2 million. Things are changing really fast, faster than ever really.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>With these changes in dietary preferences already occurring, the Canadian government need look no further than removing barriers for people to continue to make up their own minds. To support their transition and reduce the demand in animal products, the Canadian government should do its best to reduce what many could perceive as the inconvenience of a plant-based diet. </p>
<p>This could begin by reviewing food procurement and nutrition standards to ensure that public facilities such as schools, hospitals, prisons and care homes offer a plant-based meal as standard on menus every day. </p>
<h2>Food guide focus</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Supermarket dairy case full of milk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401760/original/file-20210519-21-1jhxcd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401760/original/file-20210519-21-1jhxcd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401760/original/file-20210519-21-1jhxcd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401760/original/file-20210519-21-1jhxcd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401760/original/file-20210519-21-1jhxcd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401760/original/file-20210519-21-1jhxcd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401760/original/file-20210519-21-1jhxcd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fresh milk still receives the highest level of subsidies in a federal program that aims to ensure adequate nutrition in the North.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Government should also look to put its own food guide in practice and make plant-based foods more accessible, including for low-income, rural and northern residents. When the Canadian government revised Canada’s food guide in 2019, it consulted extensively with nutritionists and scientists. The result was <a href="https://food-guide.canada.ca/en/healthy-eating-recommendations/make-it-a-habit-to-eat-vegetables-fruit-whole-grains-and-protein-foods/eat-protein-foods/">an increased focus on plants as sources of protein, and a reduction of emphasis on meat and dairy</a>.</p>
<p>Canada’s food guide tells us to “<a href="https://food-guide.canada.ca/en/healthy-food-choices/">choose protein foods that come from plants more often</a>.” Yet, despite this and the fact that consumption has been in steady <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/21-004-x/2017001/article/14786-eng.htm">decline in Canada since 2009</a>, fresh milk still receives the highest level of subsidies within the <a href="https://www.nutritionnorthcanada.gc.ca/eng/1415548276694/1415548329309">Nutrition North Canada subsidy</a> — a federal program that aims to ensure adequate nutrition in the North. A move is needed to subsidize foods that are good for people and the planet.</p>
<p>We know that dietary habits have environmental impact as well as health impact. Given that there is also a clear link between the consumption of animal products and zoonotic diseases, there is further reason for policy makers to support people who want to shift to a plant-based diet. </p>
<p>It’s not too soon to start trying to prevent the next pandemic; experts warn it could arrive at any time. Since the 2003 SARS epidemic, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-continues-experts-warn-pandemic-animals/story?id=72755696">the time between outbreaks of zoonotic viruses has been getting shorter</a>. It’s not a question of if there will be another pandemic, but when.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159308/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kurtis Boyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pandemic viruses arise from raising, harvesting and eating animals. Policy strategy for averting the next pandemic should include supporting those already seeking to make plant-based dietary changes.Kurtis Boyer, Faculty Lecuture, Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of SaskatchewanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1531832021-02-01T15:16:46Z2021-02-01T15:16:46ZThe Correctional Service of Canada’s goat plans won’t help inmates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379826/original/file-20210120-13-1s7c4n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1054%2C1853%2C987&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The cover of a new report about goat dairy operations planned for eastern Ontario prisons.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jamie Neufeld)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many of us are hopeful for the changes 2021 will bring. The Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) is hopeful it will bring them goats. Lots of goats.</p>
<p>Ten years ago, farms operated by CSC were shut down, an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/save-our-farms-final-vigil-1.4789477">action decried by a diverse group of Canadians</a>. In 2019, CSC announced it was <a href="https://www.aptnnews.ca/national-news/liberals-to-re-open-kingston-prison-farms-that-critics-say-will-exploit-inmate-labour/">resurrecting the farm programs at Collins Bay and Joyceville</a>, two federal prisons located in Kingston, Ont. </p>
<p>These programs, however, would be different than the earlier version. The CSC plan is to open an industrial-size goat dairy operation with more than 2,000 goats in its first phase. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A grey goat looks into the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381723/original/file-20210201-15-hu7w9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381723/original/file-20210201-15-hu7w9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381723/original/file-20210201-15-hu7w9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381723/original/file-20210201-15-hu7w9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381723/original/file-20210201-15-hu7w9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381723/original/file-20210201-15-hu7w9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381723/original/file-20210201-15-hu7w9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This goat could be headed to prison.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Anton Darius/Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The eventual maximum number planned is unclear, but documents obtained through access-to-information requests indicate CSC is purchasing enough equipment to handle more than 3,000 goats. </p>
<p>Exactly how much money has been earmarked for this project is also unclear; in its <a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/2018/docs/plan/budget-2018-en.pdf">2018 budget</a>, the federal government allocated $4.3 million to the program for the ensuing five years. <a href="https://evolveourprisonfarms.ca/prison-farm-report/">Internal documents</a> indicate CSC will be using nearly $10 million of its capital budget for the program. </p>
<h2>Got (goat) milk?</h2>
<p>Why is CSC getting into the goat milk business? Reportedly, it’s in order “<a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/2018/docs/plan/budget-2018-en.pdf">to provide federal inmates with training opportunities to acquire new skills, while preparing for employment and successful reintegration and rehabilitation into the community</a>.” These are laudable goals, but they’re unlikely to be accomplished via an intensive livestock operation.</p>
<p>We detail the many reasons why in our <a href="https://evolveourprisonfarms.ca/prison-farm-report/">newly released report</a>. </p>
<p>Among our many concerns is the impact it will have on prisoners. There is no empirical evidence that working in a major livestock operation has any rehabilitative impact. It’s very different from animal-assisted therapy. </p>
<p>What’s more, as far as we can tell, prisoners will not receive farm specific value-added vocational training, such as certifications. Nor does the goat initiative match the needs of the labour market, which are <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/prison-training-workforce-rehabilitation-inmates-1.3953592">essential elements of effective inmate labour programs</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://cahrc-ccrha.ca/sites/default/files/files/Labour-Employment/factsheet_NAT_E.pdf">The current labour gap in the dairy industry is relatively small, and is projected to be halved by 2025</a>. The goat dairy industry has expanded in recent years, but <a href="https://www.realagriculture.com/2018/10/dairy-goat-industry-facing-over-supply-uncertainty-with-processors/">growth has flattened and is approaching a condition of over-supply</a>. </p>
<p>Dairy industry work is also “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4885005/">a high-risk occupation, characterized by elevated rates of injury, illness and turnover</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman tends to her goats on a goat dairy farm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381384/original/file-20210129-20155-516w9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381384/original/file-20210129-20155-516w9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381384/original/file-20210129-20155-516w9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381384/original/file-20210129-20155-516w9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381384/original/file-20210129-20155-516w9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381384/original/file-20210129-20155-516w9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381384/original/file-20210129-20155-516w9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dairy industry work is high risk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ivan Valencia)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our concerns aren’t limited to the prisoners working on the farms. Other prisoners, correctional staff and even the broader community could be affected by these farms. </p>
<p>Large concentrations of animals can contribute to viral spread and diminished air quality. Just last week, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/18/we-need-answers-why-are-people-living-near-dutch-goat-farms-getting-sick">experts in the Netherlands reported</a> a zoonotic illness — one that passes from animals to people, like COVID-19 — is responsible for a 20 to 55 per cent greater risk of developing pneumonia among those within 1.5 kilometres of a goat farm. This follows on the heels of an outbreak of <a href="https://www.wionews.com/science/new-disease-causing-sickness-among-dutch-living-near-goat-farms-scientists-357490">Q fever transmitted from goats to people</a> that killed 95 people.</p>
<h2>Goats are manure machines</h2>
<p>Goats also produce a lot of manure. By our calculations, the CSC goats will produce 12,000 to 13,500 pounds of manure a day. </p>
<p>This manure can contain substances (like cyanide, nitrates and heavy metals) that can harm humans, animals and the environment. For instance, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11270-010-0602-y">research has documented</a> worse water quality near intensive livestock operations than water quality downstream from waste-water treatment plants. </p>
<p>Internal documents indicate CSC’s plan is to build a massive manure lagoon, and consultants have suggested they approach surrounding farmers about applying excess manure to their lands. Manure is one reason why property value surrounding intensive livestock operations frequently decline; a <a href="https://web.b.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=00037087&AN=101895256&h=JekiwdBlXnjgxDrxO%2bRurVrnZvlq5OF%2br4bmI0Y51MDGbfQYwFx1kQYemKCDPECIzdm%2fy6Va97wAkN88g%2br3ug%3d%3d&crl=c&resultNs=AdminWebAuth&resultLocal=ErrCrlNotAuth&crlhashurl=login.aspx%3fdirect%3dtrue%26profile%3dehost%26scope%3dsite%26authtype%3dcrawler%26jrnl%3d00037087%26AN%3d101895256">study in Washington and Michigan</a> documented declines of 50 per cent.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A truck distributes manure on a farmer's field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381376/original/file-20210129-19896-15e9c9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381376/original/file-20210129-19896-15e9c9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381376/original/file-20210129-19896-15e9c9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381376/original/file-20210129-19896-15e9c9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381376/original/file-20210129-19896-15e9c9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381376/original/file-20210129-19896-15e9c9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381376/original/file-20210129-19896-15e9c9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A truck distributes manure on a farmer’s field.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Piqsels)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to <a href="https://ontariogoat.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Facts-and-Figures-About-Canadian-Goat-Farming.pdf">Farm and Food Care Ontario</a>, the largest goat farm in the province has 1,200 goats. The size of CSC’s goat dairy would therefore make it the largest in the province. </p>
<p>It’s unclear who the CSC’s customers will be, but due to CSC’s Food Service Modernization Initiative, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5367020/prison-farm-protester/?fbclid=IwAR2R-oJJK2sh7d3QdSW-f63PJcyBlq7PsB-IvZYJpBpQ7Edzw6cgpPyEim4">the goods produced at the goat farms won’t be consumed by inmates</a>. It therefore appears that private producers would be competing with the largest goat dairy in the province, which pays <a href="https://www.csc-scc.gc.ca/acts-and-regulations/730-cd-eng.shtml#s5">its inmate-workers $5.25-$6.90 per day, well below the minimum wage</a>. </p>
<h2>Less risky, more beneficial alternatives</h2>
<p>CSC’s goat plan is even more confusing given there are many more promising and less risky prison farm program alternatives. </p>
<p>Prisoners involved in a <a href="http://sustainabilityinprisons.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/SPP-Annual-Report-FY19-for-web.pdf">gardening program in Portland, Ore.,</a> produced about 5,000 kilograms of food in 2019, and donated much of it to food banks.</p>
<p>Given that the quality of food is a frequent concern of prisoners, increasing the availability of fresh produce is an obvious choice for Canada’s reopened prison farms. While the Food Services Modernization Initiative makes it difficult to incorporate meats or dairy, fresh seasonal produce could be incorporated into prison kitchens. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man looks at bright-red cherry tomatoes growing on a tomato plant." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381378/original/file-20210129-20114-1megi8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381378/original/file-20210129-20114-1megi8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381378/original/file-20210129-20114-1megi8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381378/original/file-20210129-20114-1megi8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381378/original/file-20210129-20114-1megi8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381378/original/file-20210129-20114-1megi8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381378/original/file-20210129-20114-1megi8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fruit and vegetable farming programs would be more beneficial to inmates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Priscilla du Preez/Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Agricultural work is by no means easy. But under the right circumstances, it can be rewarding and provide relevant training for inmates. Northeastern Correctional Facility in Massachusetts operates an innovative farm program, <a href="https://www.mass.gov/locations/fife-and-drum-restaurant">complete with an open-to-the-public restaurant</a> that employs prisoners as cooks, bakers, servers and dishwashers. </p>
<p><a href="https://rootsofsuccess.org/corrections/">Roots of Success</a>, a program in Washington, provides job training and skill-building to help prisoners find work in the green economy. The Cook County Jail outside of Chicago <a href="https://greatlakesecho.org/2009/11/20/inmates-harvest-food-savings-education-and-jobs-from-jail-gardens/">offers a Master Gardener’s Certificate</a> in partnership with the University of Illinois. </p>
<p>The Mission Correctional Centre in British Columbia operates a horticultural therapy garden program that donates food to Indigenous communities experiencing food insecurity. Program participants have found the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10509674.2019.1615598">community connections</a> built through food donations to be an important part of their healing process. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/nyregion/garden-rikers-island.html">The GreenHouse program at Rikers Island prison</a> incorporates horticultural therapy alongside training and educational opportunities in partnership with the Horticultural Society of New York. Participants have <a href="http://www.healinglandscapes.org/pdf-library/laichterthesis.pdf">lower rates of recidivism, and have been more likely to obtain viable employment</a>. </p>
<h2>Saying no to goats</h2>
<p>We include these examples to highlight that promising alternative models exist. In our report, we recommend an alternative farming program for CSC that’s focused on producing organic fruits and vegetables for prisoners and community food organizations, offers meaningful career-oriented employment, training and education, and provides supportive rehabilitative therapy and reintegration activities. </p>
<p>This program would be of value to prisoners, the broader community, and the environment. </p>
<p>Reopening prison farms is a historic opportunity for CSC to establish itself as a leader in innovative rehabilitation and reintegration programming. The proposed goat dairy will do everything but. We urge CSC to re-evaluate their plan because the potential risks outweigh the highly speculative benefits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Fitzgerald consults with Evolve Our Prison Farms. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Wilson consults with Evolve Our Prison Farms. She also receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>Reopening prison farms is a great opportunity for Correctional Service of Canada to become a leader in innovative rehabilitation and reintegration. But a goat dairy operation isn’t the way.Amy Fitzgerald, Professor, Department of Sociology, Anthropology and Criminology, University of WindsorAmanda Wilson, Assistant Professor, Social Innovation, Université Saint-Paul / Saint Paul UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1230792019-09-06T04:43:55Z2019-09-06T04:43:55ZNew Zealand launches plan to revive the health of lakes and rivers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291200/original/file-20190906-175678-wu53q2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=132%2C117%2C4772%2C3139&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">After years of delay, the New Zealand government is pushing ahead on a national plan to clean up the nation's lakes, rivers and wetlands.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s government released a <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/consultation/action-for-healthy-waterways">plan to reverse the decline of iconic lakes and rivers</a> this week. It proposes higher standards for water quality, interim controls on land intensification and a higher bar on ecosystem health.</p>
<p>Freshwater quality was a significant election issue in 2017 and the proposal follows the recent release of <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/environment-aotearoa-2019">Environment Aotearoa 2019</a>, which links agriculture to <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-urban-freshwater-is-improving-but-a-major-report-reveals-huge-gaps-in-our-knowledge-115695">freshwater degradation</a>. </p>
<p>The agenda for change recognises that the perceived trade-off between agriculture and the environment makes little sense. If New Zealand trades internationally on a reputation for a healthy environment, continued degradation of water fouls the value of major exports. It also spoils the natural heritage that fuels the tourist economy and many New Zealanders consider a birthright. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/six-ways-to-improve-water-quality-in-new-zealands-lakes-and-rivers-95049">Six ways to improve water quality in New Zealand's lakes and rivers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s changed?</h2>
<p>The policy announcement reflects more than a decade of previous attempts, with the first draft notified in <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/boi-proposed-nps-freshwater-management.pdf">2008</a>, the first implementation in <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/rma-fresh-water/national-policy-statement-freshwater-management-2011">2011</a>, and major updates in <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/fresh-water/national-policy-statement-freshwater-management-2014">2014</a> and <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/fresh-water/national-policy-statement-freshwater-management-2014-amended-2017">2017</a>. The new policy package addresses major deficiencies in the earlier versions, and has been fast-tracked to curtail freshwater pollution that has been allowed to get worse longer than it should. </p>
<p>The new regulations are designed to protect the health of entire ecosystems from excess nutrients. Some of the most compelling provisions draw clear lines where limits need to be set to prevent further slippage. </p>
<p>There’s a halt to significant expansions of dairy farming and irrigation, and limits on the use of nitrogen in some key catchments. Further improvements will better protect waterways and wetlands from grazing animals, and limits will be placed on <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/114607024/cows-in-mud-new-images-stir-up-cropping-concerns-once-more">recently criticised winter grazing</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-urban-freshwater-is-improving-but-a-major-report-reveals-huge-gaps-in-our-knowledge-115695">New Zealand’s urban freshwater is improving, but a major report reveals huge gaps in our knowledge</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Two significant steps will reverse the main cause of delays in the past. The first is an <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/fresh-water/proposed-national-environmental-standards-freshwater">implementation at national level</a>. This should reduce reliance on a National Policy Statement (<a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/fresh-water/freshwater-acts-and-regulations/national-policy-statement-freshwater-management">NPS</a>) that requires regional councils to implement changes to local legislation. </p>
<p>This step will be reinforced by <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/overhauling-resource-management-system">signalled changes</a> to the national legislation, the <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1991/0069/latest/DLM230265.html">Resource Management Act</a>, which in turn will make <a href="https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/pq/article/view/5682">regional council actions</a> less cumbersome and underfunded. Secondly, where the new NPS requires region-by-region action, caps on increasing agricultural intensity will apply until regional plans have been amended to comply.</p>
<p>These steps increase the chance of preventing further degradation. Some benefits, such as a reduced risk of getting sick from swimming, should come through quickly. Others, such as reduced nutrient loads of nitrogen and phosphorous and a healthier ecology in lakes and rivers, could take years or decades.</p>
<h2>Challenges ahead</h2>
<p>To improve freshwater quality, we will need reliable monitoring and modelling tools to measure progress. These will need to be an integral part of the process, even though any decisions are ultimately determined by values. Working through this challenge highlights two large issues that remain unresolved in the plan.</p>
<p>The first is a lack of monitoring tools. The announcement didn’t take up recommendations in the <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/fresh-water/freshwater-leaders-group">Freshwater Leaders Group</a>’s <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/fresh-water/freshwater-leaders-group-report-minister-environment">report</a> that described present tools as unsuitable for providing enough confidence to move forward. The implications are that promised investment to develop the nutrient-monitoring <a href="https://www.pce.parliament.nz/publications/overseer-and-regulatory-oversight-models-uncertainty-and-cleaning-up-our-waterways">Overseer</a> tool will only eventually get us what we needed years ago.</p>
<p>Tools need to connect nutrient management with farm and catchment planning. They should focus more on future solutions rather than quantifying impacts of past land use that led to freshwater pollution. </p>
<h2>The role for Māori</h2>
<p>The issue of water allocation is even more important given the constitutional role Māori play in New Zealand’s freshwater governance, enshrined in the <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/treaty-of-waitangi">Treaty of Waitangi</a>. </p>
<p>One of the most intriguing options left open to consultation is the extent to which Māori values will receive compulsory consideration, or alternately, be afforded consideration place-by-place by individual iwi (tribes) and hapū (sub-tribes). The advisory body representing Māori interests in the environment and in land-based industries <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/fresh-water/te-mana-o-te-wai-health-of-our-wai-health-of-our-nation-k%C4%81hui-wai-m%C4%81ori">raised concerns</a> that these options are too weak. </p>
<p>These concerns are substantially amplified by the recent <a href="https://www.waitangitribunal.govt.nz/news/tribunal-releases-stage-2-report-on-freshwater-and-geothermal-resources/">report</a> by the <a href="https://www.waitangitribunal.govt.nz/">Waitangi Tribunal</a>, suggesting that the delays and dysfunction associated with freshwater policies have disproportionately undermined the ability of Māori to maintain holistic cultural connections to water, and obtain fair value from lands recently returned to them by the Crown. </p>
<p>These concerns and the need for better planning tools that resolve past degradation and enable future investment ultimately go hand-in-hand. Māori businesses, enabled by treaty settlements, are leading <a href="https://www.wakatu.org/#welcome">innovators and investors</a> using social and environmental values to drive high-value exports. </p>
<p>The release now opens a period of consultation and national debate. This will pit the passionate voice of the farming community against voices representing our freshwater ecosystems. But this is the first time a proposed plan brings together all aspects of policy we need to keep aquatic life healthy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123079/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Troy Baisden receives funding from Bay of Plenty Regional Council, Te Pūnaha Matatini Centre of Research Excellence, and the Ministry of Business Employment and Innovation's Endeavour Fund.</span></em></p>A proposed plan to clean up New Zealand’s waterways draws clear limits on the expansion of dairy farming and irrigation, as well as on the use of nitrogen fertiliser in some key areas.Troy Baisden, Professor and Chair in Lake and Freshwater Sciences, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1018432018-08-22T12:23:00Z2018-08-22T12:23:00ZHow climate change will affect dairy cows and milk production in the UK – new study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232897/original/file-20180821-149472-17bl7a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cows-stuck-stall-eating-hay-sunset-706524715">Valerio Pardi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The unusually hot summer of 2018 has proved challenging for farmers across the UK. Among other things, the scorching weather and lack of rain has <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2018-07-17/heatwave-is-last-straw-for-some-crop-farmers/">damaged crops</a>, and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-44704958">the grass</a> used to feed farm animals too.</p>
<p>Unfortunately the unusual may become more usual as the effects of climate change are <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-models-predict-the-world-will-be-anomalously-warm-until-2022-101542">felt more frequently across the world</a>. The high ambient temperatures and humidity seen this year, as well as extreme weather conditions such as flooding, are a significant challenge to the future of farming. </p>
<p>Pasture-based systems of dairy production, which are very common in the UK, are particularly sensitive to environmental factors. In fact, dairy cows are more likely to be vulnerable to the effects of climate change than cows that are housed, because housing provides shelter and technological options to mitigate the extremes of weather. </p>
<h2>Heat stress in cows</h2>
<p>For our recent study, our team looked at how climate change might impact <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0197076">UK milk production</a>, given what we already knew about how it affects dairy cows. In particular, we wanted to quantify the effects of heat stress on milk production. </p>
<p>Heat stress in cows occurs when ambient temperature and humidity go above animal specific thresholds. These thresholds are estimated by the <a href="http://www.coolcows.com.au/go-on-alert/thi.htm">temperature humidity index (THI)</a>. At present, the current British temperature and humidity is considered moderate on this scale, but is expected to get worse. It is open to debate, and depends on the cattle themselves, but generally a THI of more than 70 is regarded to be the point when heat stress becomes a problem and less milk is produced.</p>
<p>Using 11 different climate projection models, and 18 different milk production models, we estimated potential milk loss from UK dairy cows as climate conditions change during the 21st century. Given this information, our final climate projection analysis suggests that average ambient temperatures in the UK will increase by <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0197076">up to about 3.5°C</a> by the end of the century. This means that THIs during the summer, in some parts of the country, will lead to significant heat stress for cows if nothing is done to alleviate the hot weather’s effects. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Grazing on a summer’s day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/backlit-cow-grazing-field-sunset-672070138?src=D6qR88DqSNK8br0NI20upA-1-82">Gavayec/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lactating cows initially respond to mild heat stress by sweating, panting, drinking more, and seeking shade when possible. At higher temperatures cows eat less feed, which leads to a fall in milk production. In south-east England – the region with the highest incidence of heat stress – the average annual milk losses due to heat stress <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0197076">is projected</a> to exceed 170kg/cow. Cows in the UK currently produce an average of about 7,500kg of milk each year so these future losses would be about 2.4% of their production. </p>
<p>However, climate change projections also suggest the UK would experience more heatwaves, and these would lead to even greater losses of milk. For example, the hottest area (south-east England) in the hottest year in the 2090s is predicted to result in an annual milk loss exceeding 1,300kg/cow, which is about 18.6% of annual milk yield. </p>
<p>In economic terms, south-west England is expected to be the region most vulnerable to climate change because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density, and so potentially a high level of heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, the estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4m in average years, and £33.8m in extreme years.</p>
<p>However, by the end of the century we predict dairy cattle in large portions of Scotland and Northern Ireland could experience the same level of heat stress as cattle in southern England today. </p>
<h2>Mitigation now</h2>
<p>These predictions assume that nothing is done to mitigate the problems of heat stress. But there are many parts of the world that are already much hotter than the UK where milk is produced, and much is known about what can be done to protect the welfare of the animals and minimise economic losses from heat stress. These range from simple adaptations, such as the providing shade, to installing fans and water misting systems. </p>
<p>Cattle breeding for increased heat tolerance is another potential, which could be beneficial for maintaining pasture-based systems. In addition, changing the location of farming operations is another practice used to address economic challenges worldwide. Even though there is little indication that movement of dairy farming operations is a feasible strategy to decrease the risks of environmental challenges in the UK, regions with little or no prediction of conditions leading to heat stress (for example some parts of Scotland) may become increasingly important for UK dairy farms that depend on the availability of pasture.</p>
<p>In any case, we estimate that by 2100, heat stress-related annual income losses of average size dairy farms in the most affected regions may vary between £2,000-£6,000 and £6,000-£14,000 (in today’s value), in average and extreme years respectively. Armed with these figures, farmers need to begin planning for a hotter UK using cheaper, longer-term options such as planting trees or installing shaded areas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andreas Foskolos works for Aberystwyth University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Moorby receives research grant funding from Defra, BBSRC and the Welsh Government. </span></em></p>By 2100, heat stress in cows could see average sized dairy farms losing up to £14,000 a year.Andreas Foskolos, Research Fellow in Ruminant Livestock Modelling, Aberystwyth UniversityJon Moorby, Reader in Livestock Nutrition, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/911292018-02-05T23:28:09Z2018-02-05T23:28:09ZWhat if Trump kills NAFTA? Remedies for Canada and Mexico<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204659/original/file-20180202-19956-1rd3hsl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1149%2C0%2C1037%2C1917&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, right, and Mexico's Secretary of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo Villarrea, deliver statements to the media during the sixth round of negotiations for a new North American Free Trade Agreement in Montreal in January 2018. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>NAFTA has come under a series of threats since Donald Trump became the 45th president of the United States. </p>
<p>According to his tweets and public comments, the president believes strongly that NAFTA is a disastrous trade deal for the U.S.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"901804388649500672"}"></div></p>
<p>But Trump has different issues with NAFTA when it comes to Canada and Mexico. And there are ways for both countries to fight back, regardless of NAFTA’s ultimate fate.</p>
<h2>Canada</h2>
<p>In Canada, most businesses are worried about any potential collapse of NAFTA.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2018/01/28/nafta-2-0-slow-progress-progress/">slow progress</a> in the NAFTA talks has created grave uncertainty and this could have a detrimental effect on decision-making. It seems Canada is more concerned about the stability of NAFTA than the U.S. </p>
<p>This isn’t surprising because the Americans have diversified their exports much more than Canada has — <a href="http://www.international.gc.ca/economist-economiste/performance/state-point/state_2017_point/index.aspx?lang=eng">the U.S. accounts for more than 75 per cent of Canadian exports. </a></p>
<p>However, the exit clause under NAFTA requires <a href="http://www.sice.oas.org/trade/nafta/chap-22.asp">six month’s notice</a> before any member country can withdraw. That should be enough time for any business to devise alternative strategies or find new places to sell their goods as well as new importers, and to therefore minimize any potential economic damage from the eventual collapse of NAFTA.</p>
<p>With or without NAFTA, Canada can still remain competitive in the North American market, especially as Canada remains a natural trading partner for the United States. </p>
<p>Canadians share a common border, a common language, similar cultural and social values and almost identical consumer tastes and preferences with Americans. That should help reduce the costs of doing trade between the U.S. and Canada even in the absence of a trade agreement. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204726/original/file-20180204-19952-1m03ec8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204726/original/file-20180204-19952-1m03ec8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204726/original/file-20180204-19952-1m03ec8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204726/original/file-20180204-19952-1m03ec8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204726/original/file-20180204-19952-1m03ec8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204726/original/file-20180204-19952-1m03ec8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204726/original/file-20180204-19952-1m03ec8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, holds up a pair of socks that he received as a gift from American talk show hosts Kelly Ripa, centre, and Ryan Seacrest during his appearance on Live with Kelly and Ryan in Niagara Falls, Ont. in June 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Lynett</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Without NAFTA, Canada may have to resort to most-favoured nation (MFN) tariffs, which is what the U.S. has imposed on WTO member countries. Facing MFN tariffs of about 3.5 per cent on average will not significantly lower the competitiveness of Canadian exporters in the U.S.</p>
<p>There are many other possible remedies Canada can embark upon as a country to minimize uncertainty about NAFTA. One main tool will be diversifying its export market to significantly reduce Canada’s dependence on just a few export markets or destinations. </p>
<p>Already, the government is diversifying by signing two major trade agreements: The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with Pacific Rim countries.</p>
<p>Incidentally, Canada’s embrace of TPP may have contributed to a <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/01/27/business/economy-business/trump-woos-davos-tpp-trade-deal-shift-says-u-s-open-business/#.Wnc8jqinHIU">change in Trump’s rhetoric</a> about TPP being a bad deal. It doesn’t seem a mere coincidence that just as Canada signed the pact, the U.S. president was in Davos suggesting the U.S. was ready to negotiate bilaterally or regionally with any TPP countries.</p>
<p>The Canadian government must also focus on how to improve the economic environment to make firms and businesses operating in Canada competitive. </p>
<p>There are lots of WTO-consistent ways and means that Canada can do this, especially by supporting research and development that promote innovations and competitiveness for Canadian businesses, and backing technological innovations and making them accessible to many businesses at minimal costs.</p>
<p>Technological advancement is more beneficial when there is direct collaboration between universities and businesses, and so businesses should be encouraged to fund and support research. </p>
<p>That type of direct collaboration may lead to development of technologies that will be tailored to Canadian businesses and make them more competitive in the world market.</p>
<p>Governments must therefore incentivize businesses that fund research by giving them tax rebates.</p>
<p>New and innovative technologies can also be driven by skilled workers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204727/original/file-20180204-19956-nzyo5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204727/original/file-20180204-19956-nzyo5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204727/original/file-20180204-19956-nzyo5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204727/original/file-20180204-19956-nzyo5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204727/original/file-20180204-19956-nzyo5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204727/original/file-20180204-19956-nzyo5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204727/original/file-20180204-19956-nzyo5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A protest against Trump’s immigration policies in Los Angeles in September 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Reed Saxon)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Canada can take real advantage right now of the Trump administration’s <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/12/05/us-devastating-impact-trumps-immigration-policy">anti-immigration policies</a> and attract more skilled labour from the rest of the world. </p>
<p>Skilled immigrants have contributed enormously to many nations, including the U.S., so the Canadian government must intensify its efforts to attract new skilled workers by reducing the standards, time and costs for skilled immigrants who want to come to Canada.</p>
<h2>Time to revisit ‘supply-management’</h2>
<p>Revisiting supply-management policy may also have direct implication for agricultural sector competitiveness in Canada. The policy, which dates back to the 1970s, involves Canada using fixed prices, production quotas and so-called tariff-rate quotas to protect its dairy, egg and poultry sectors. </p>
<p>The U.S. is demanding the phasing-out of supply management over a period of 10 years. And, in fact, supply management may not be helping Canadian farmers to be competitive. </p>
<p>There exists a huge domestic market in the agri-food sector, and supply management is considered by some <a href="https://biv.com/article/2017/10/naftas-demise-would-force-canadas-agri-food-sector">to be a major constraint.</a> Looking, for example, at the dairy sector in the figure below, Canada has consistently experienced increasing trade deficits. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204732/original/file-20180204-19925-ty5940.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204732/original/file-20180204-19925-ty5940.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204732/original/file-20180204-19925-ty5940.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204732/original/file-20180204-19925-ty5940.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204732/original/file-20180204-19925-ty5940.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204732/original/file-20180204-19925-ty5940.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204732/original/file-20180204-19925-ty5940.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With increasing trade deficits, this means that Canada is still import-dependent; it imports more than it exports. Increasing imports indicate that there is a huge domestic market for dairy.</p>
<p>Farmers could have easily improved their domestic competitiveness through economies of scale. The increasing dairy imports also suggest that even after paying out tariff-rate quotas, foreign farmers are still competitive in the Canadian market.</p>
<p>Phasing out supply management, therefore, may improve the competitiveness of Canadian farmers and give Canadian consumers competitive prices for dairy/poultry products. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.macleans.ca/opinion/why-is-canada-jeopardizing-nafta-to-protect-13500-farmers/">Many experts are asking</a> why the government is willing to continuously sacrifice the gain of millions of Canadian consumers for the gain of a few farmers.</p>
<p>What’s more, there are contingency measures within the WTO that Canada can use to protect certain sectors if import surges threaten or pose serious risks to the Canadian economy.</p>
<h2>Mexico</h2>
<p>Trump’s problem with Mexico seems to stem from the fact that he finds it unthinkable that the U.S. should have a trade deficit with the Mexicans at all. He also takes issue with migrants crossing the border to illegally reside in the U.S. </p>
<p>That has resulted in his infamous protectionist proposals of imposing tariff barriers in the form of a border adjustment tax of about 20 per cent on Mexican imports, and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/01/26/politics/donald-trump-mexico-import-tax-border-wall/index.html">his plan to build a wall</a> on the U.S.-Mexico border.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204736/original/file-20180204-19944-1cwohd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204736/original/file-20180204-19944-1cwohd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204736/original/file-20180204-19944-1cwohd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204736/original/file-20180204-19944-1cwohd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204736/original/file-20180204-19944-1cwohd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204736/original/file-20180204-19944-1cwohd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204736/original/file-20180204-19944-1cwohd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A U.S. border patrol agent walks along a portion of the border wall in San Diego, Calif., in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Gregory Bull)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Given the U.S. and Mexico are members of both the World Trade Organization and NAFTA, the implementation of Trump’s Mexican border tariff will contravene WTO principles that stipulate non-discrimination between WTO member countries. Practically speaking, it won’t be feasible for the U.S. to apply the tariff. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the U.S. can also take advantage of WTO contingency measures, and employ a measure that guards against surges in Mexican exports. But the Americans would have to apply it in a non-discriminatory manner to all their trading partners.</p>
<p>In addition, the U.S. would have to demonstrate a causal link between the increase in imports and serious harm to domestic industry in order to justify the application of the safeguards. The Americans would also be expected to offer compensation to exporters of all countries that would be affected by any use of such safeguards.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204662/original/file-20180202-19944-1kapzek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204662/original/file-20180202-19944-1kapzek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204662/original/file-20180202-19944-1kapzek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204662/original/file-20180202-19944-1kapzek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204662/original/file-20180202-19944-1kapzek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204662/original/file-20180202-19944-1kapzek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204662/original/file-20180202-19944-1kapzek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mexico’s chief negotiator Kenneth Smith Ramos speaks to the media at the sixth round of the North American Free Trade Agreement in January in Montreal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The United States has the flexibility to increase its tariffs on a non-discriminatory basis, provided the new tariffs are not above the so-called “bound rate” of approximately 3.5 per cent (the individual commitment made by all WTO members not to raise the tariff above a specified level). </p>
<p>However, the proposed border tariff of 20 per cent is far above that. And so if the U.S. insists upon imposing the border tax on Mexico, it will result in Mexico filing a complaint with the <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_e.htm">dispute settlement body</a> of the WTO.</p>
<p>If it is determined that the U.S. is off side, Mexico can then ask for permission to retaliate.</p>
<p>Obviously, with a higher tariff, U.S. companies (especially those producing import substitutes or similar goods to Mexico) could especially benefit in terms of higher market share and higher prices for those goods. However, this could also potentially boost the costs of production for U.S. companies that use goods and raw materials from Mexico to make their products. </p>
<p>One argument in favour of the border tariff is that it would allow the U.S. government to raise revenues to fund projects, especially the border wall.</p>
<p>Ultimately, though, American consumers would also suffer a loss: They’d be forced to pay higher prices for goods imported or produced domestically with Mexican content.</p>
<p>Apart from these costs and gains, there would be additional costs to U.S. exporters if WTO-sanctioned trade retaliations are applied following complaints from Mexico.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump has described NAFTA as the worst trade deal ever signed by the United States. As NAFTA talks continue, here’s what Canada and Mexico can do if the unthinkable happens.Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, Assistant Professor, Agri-Food Trade and Policy, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/910852018-02-01T12:46:33Z2018-02-01T12:46:33ZSouth African news station ANN7 is on the skids: why it won’t be missed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204400/original/file-20180201-123840-o8za9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Television news station linked to the Guptas faces imminent closure. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The closure of any media outlet is normally mourned by all journalists, because of the loss of jobs, diversity and competition. But the announcement that South African pay-TV operator Multichoice will <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Tech/Companies/naspers-wont-renew-contract-with-gupta-linked-ann7-20180131">not renew the contract</a> of news channel ANN7 will be no great loss to the news media, or the public debate. </p>
<p>It will, though, be a setback to the corrupt three-way state capture conspiracy which brought together ANN7, Multichoice and elements of the government, as exposed by the now notorious <a href="http://www.gupta-leaks.com/">Guptaleaks</a> emails.</p>
<p>The emails were leaked some months ago from inside the Gupta clan. The family has been at the centre of <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/FULL-TEXT-Statement-by-Public-Protector-on-Nkandla-Report-20140319">state capture</a> accusations in South Africa because of its extraordinary influence over President Jacob Zuma, his family and members of his Cabinet. The allegations of corruption have extended to Multichoice. It <a href="http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/multichoice-cooperate-siu-sabc-ann7-deals/">stands accused</a> of making multi-million rand payments to both ANN7 and the South African Broadcasting Corporation to get their support for Multichoice’s attempt to influence government policy on digitalisation.</p>
<p>Yesterday Multichoice, which is <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/western-cape/icasa-vows-to-probe-multichoice-payments-to-ann7-sabc-12978072">facing an inquiry</a> by South Africa’s broadcast regulator Icasa, announced the results of its <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/multichoice-says-sorry-but-not-for-engaging-in-corruption/">own internal probe</a>. The company said it had made mistakes, but there was nothing corrupt or illegal about its decisions. Nevertheless, it would <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Tech/Companies/naspers-wont-renew-contract-with-gupta-linked-ann7-20180131">not be renewing ANN7s contract</a> when it expired in August. Instead Multichoice would open up bidding for another black-owned news station.</p>
<p>The night before this announcement, ANN7 had run a piece on air about the <a href="http://www.ann7.com/the-untold-inside-story-of-vrede-dairy-farm/">Vrede dairy farm</a>, in central South Africa, which is part of the police investigation into Gupta-inspired <a href="http://mp3londo.tk/2018/01/details-how-the-guptas-zuma-s-son-stole-millions-with-the-aid-of-top-government-officials.rX-ApAUSpaI/">fraud</a>. The TV station promised to give the country the real story that the rest of the corruption obsessed media were not telling.</p>
<p>The report aired by ANN7 was a clear illustration of the kind of dishonest journalism the station has produced since its launch in 2013. It was unmistakenly part of the fight back campaign being launched by Zuma’s supporters, a number of whom are among those accused of fraud in relation to the dairy farm.</p>
<h2>An unseemly story</h2>
<p>As part of the piece station owner Mzwaneli Manyi, a former government communicator who was gifted the station by the Guptas, went to the farm himself to show that it was not derelict, but a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfdFL58bQIo">“world class facility”</a>, a fact being downplayed by the rest of the media. It was <a href="http://www.ann7.com/prime-discussion-vrede-dairy-farm-alive-and-kicking/">a repetitive piece</a> in the ANN7 tradition of trying to deflect criticism of friends and sponsors accused of corruption and state capture.</p>
<p>There were also some significant omissions in the report. It made no attempt to tell the audience why the farm’s current state was relevant to fraud that happened at least five years ago under different ownership. Nor did it address the issue of whether it was worth the R220 million of taxpayers’ money that went into it, nor why most of that money appeared to have been peeled off to pay for a <a href="http://amabhungane.co.za/article/2017-06-29-guptaleaks-the-dubai-laundromat">lavish Gupta wedding</a> and other non-farming activities. </p>
<p>It did not say whether the farm was profitable. They did speak to some of the 45 employees who said they and their families depended on the farm, though the townspeople they spoke to all said that the politician’s promises that this farm would benefit the community had come to little.</p>
<p>It was the worst kind of sham, poisonous journalism for which ANN7 has become known. It was based on a false premise (that the media were suggesting that the farm was still derelict) and intended to throw up dust around those accused of involvement in what was by all accounts a fraudulent business venture. </p>
<p>One veterinarian took one look at the pictures of cows and tweeted, “Call the SPCA”, saying these bony bovines did not look healthy enough to produce significant amounts of milk.</p>
<p>But Manyi did not get an expert to look at the pictures. Instead the station wheeled out analysts and commentators to repeat the station’s mantra that other media was hiding the real story as part of the grand <a href="https://theconversation.com/white-monopoly-capital-good-politics-bad-sociology-worse-economics-77338">white monopoly capital conspiracy</a>.</p>
<h2>A history of dishonest journalism</h2>
<p>Was this kind of dishonest political propaganda the reason Multichoice not renewing ANN7’s contract? It’s impossible to tell how the decision was made because the company gave no details of what their mistakes were, nor any explanation of why it was not corrupt. </p>
<p>One possible conclusion is that Multichoice and its parent company, the global internet and entertainment group Naspers, was doing what it has done best for over 100 years: move with the political wind to stay onside with whoever is – or is going to be – in Pretoria’s Union Buildings. With Zuma about to be replaced as president of the country by new African National Congress president Cyril Ramaphosa, the Gupta connection becomes a liability rather than an asset.</p>
<p>This is why the demise of ANN7 is more worrying for the Gupta network of corruption than for journalists or the viewing public. Surely in the post-truth age we have to act against those who knowingly purvey falsity? </p>
<p>The closure of ANN7 could be viewed as South Africa’s Facebook lesson: diversity in news is of dubious value when it means polluting the air with dishonest journalism. What South Africa audiences want is more, better, independent journalism – and they will have a better chance of getting that if ANN7 is replaced by another station.</p>
<p>There is a precedent in this country for a media outlet that was born in sin and shunned for decades by anyone who cared about news and journalism: <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/information-scandal">The Citizen</a> newspaper. It was started in the 1970s with secret government funds, with the express intention of undermining the Rand Daily Mail, at the time the most liberal and anti-apartheid of our newspapers.</p>
<p>The Citizen went through multiple changes of ownership until this history was bleached out. But only diehard apartheid supporters would have mourned its closure in the 1980s, just as only diehard Gupta-supporters will mourn the disappearance of ANN7.</p>
<p>What this incident highlights more than anything is the danger of the Multichoice monopoly on pay-TV, which gives it extraordinary power to decide what alternatives audiences have to the public broadcaster, the SABC. </p>
<p>Rather than the future of ANN7, South Africans should perhaps worry about Multichoice having so much power, and using it so cynically.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anton Harber is a former Editor-in-Chief of news channel eNCA, an ANN7 competitor.</span></em></p>The only reason journalists will mourn the demise of TV news station ANN7 will be the loss of jobs.Anton Harber, Caxton Professor of Journalism, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/866782017-11-02T04:29:16Z2017-11-02T04:29:16ZThe Murray Goulburn dilemma – co-operatives are dying out but they’re still needed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192936/original/file-20171102-19883-gpio1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are a number of examples of what were once co-operatives restructuring into, or being taken over by, listed companies.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tim Green/Flckr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canadian diary company Saputo’s bid for Murray Goulburn is just the latest example of how co-operatives are disappearing in the Australian business landscape. But despite this pressure for co-operatives to fold into the dominant corporation model, these business models are still worthy.</p>
<p>Co-operatives have a long history because they have the advantage of minimising conflicts of interest between producers and owners. Producer co-operatives are set up to be <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1301.0%7E2012%7EMain%20Features%7ECo-operatives%20in%20Australia%20-%20an%20overview%7E285">centred on the interests of their producer members</a> whereas corporations are motivated by shareholders. Unless all shareholders are also producers, a conflict can arise.</p>
<p>Natural selection plays a part in markets so this comparative advantage could see new types of co-operatives emerge in the market. But the organisation of new, large scale, co-operative ventures is likely to be difficult for busy farmers without extensive cash. </p>
<h2>Why are producer co-operatives disappearing?</h2>
<p>Australia’s farmers don’t receive subsidies to the extent that European and American farmers do and are often cash strapped, lacking surplus capital to invest. Because of this, co-operative managers argue for the need to look elsewhere for more capital to invest in <a href="http://www.mgc.com.au/media/15498/mg_capital_structure_web.pdf">manufacturing and supply chains</a>.</p>
<p>Co-operatives such as Murray Goulburn have gone to private equity markets but this has diluted their co-operative structure while creating other problems such as conflict between producers and investors. This is exemplified by the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/class-action-against-filed-against-dairy-giant-murray-goulburn-20160516-govz40.html">current investor class action</a>. </p>
<p>Co-operatives also struggle with banks who are <a href="http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/232672">reluctant to lend</a> as they do not understand or even distrust the co-operative structure. Some also argue that increasingly globalised free trade and excess production <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Hungry_for_Trade.html?id=EGMPQhNpOL8C&redir_esc=y">has depressed agricultural prices</a> which impacts the market power of farmer co-operatives to hold out for a good price. </p>
<p>Regulators also have an interest in transforming co-operative structures <a href="http://www.asic.gov.au/media/4268116/cp283-published-25-may-2017.pdf">into the corporate form for ease</a> of regulation.</p>
<h2>Farmer co-operatives are changing</h2>
<p>The once proud farmers co-operatives have transformed in Australia. While agricultural co-operatives <a href="http://www.farminstitute.org.au/ag-forum/australian-farmers-persistently-refuse-to-cooperate">maintain their popularity overseas</a>, in Australia there are a number of examples of co-operatives restructuring into, or being taken over by, listed companies. </p>
<p>Some examples include former customer co-operative <a href="https://www.incitecpivot.com.au/about-us/about-incitec-pivot-limited/history">Pivot</a> and former producer co-operatives such as <a href="http://www.wesfarmers.com.au/who-we-are/our-history/the-wesfarmers-story-begins">Wesfarmers</a>, <a href="http://www.wcbf.com.au/About-Us/History">Warrnambool Cheese and Butter</a> (now owned by the Canadian Saputo) and Bega Cheese (<a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Bega%2520Cheese%2520Limited.pdf">ASX listed in 2011</a>). </p>
<p>Even the former Australian Wheat Board was briefly a partly co-operative company, between its time as a government selling desk and its takeover by a Canadian firm.<br>
Yet some major co-operatives continue in business such as <a href="https://www.cbh.com.au/">CBH Group</a> (a bulk handling co-operative) and <a href="http://www.norco.com.au/">Norco</a> and there are a number of <a href="https://www.coopdevelopment.org.au/topcoopsau.html">other agricultural co-operatives</a>.</p>
<p>Some agricultural producer co-operatives have to a greater or lesser degree experimented with doses of private non-farmer equity in the hope of survival. Unfortunately the attractions of city capital have inevitably brought conflicts with the old farmer members and an end to the purist model. </p>
<h2>Conflict between the corporation and the co-operative</h2>
<p>There are some logical reasons why a co-operative structure would transform into a corporation, apart from the ability to raise capital. A business having a corporation type structure allows greater transparency on the health of the business, through a listed share price. It also provides greater liquidity and gives members the ability to exit the business (by selling their shares).</p>
<p>However there is a conflict in producer co-operatives between the objectives of paying farmers the best price and generating highest returns for non-farmer investors. For example, the greater the difference between sale price and farmgate price of produce, the greater the revenue for the corporation.</p>
<p>Though this provides an incentive to maximise the sale price of produce to retailers (which is good for farmers) there may also be a theoretical incentive to minimise farmgate price, as this also increases the returns to non-farmer investors. </p>
<p>There are also competition issues in the corporation model as farmer-owned processors could generally rely on their farmer ownership to avoid price exploitation by the distributor/processor.</p>
<p>However once the processor becomes externally owned, there is the temptation to use that market power against farmer suppliers (in the way <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.5172/rsj.2012.21.3.250">some powerful supermarket players do</a>). The ACCC then is left as the only protector in ensuring there is sufficient competition between processors to prevent this. </p>
<p>Another problem in corporations is the focus on short-term capital. This is where people, such as day traders and speculators, seek quick returns and short term share price gains. This could be detrimental to the long term producer interests of maximising farmgate price and reinvesting in the co-operative. </p>
<p>There’s also a lack of <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1053535708000243">intergenerational equity</a> in the corporatisation of co-operatives. Current members and insiders may get <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/how-to-steal-a-mutual-20101010-16eca.html">windfall gains</a> at the expense of services to future suppliers or customers. </p>
<p>This is because businesses built up over a long period by predecessor farmers, that would otherwise pass to the next generation, have their value crystallised and “cashed out” at an earlier point in time. This means the next generation are likely (in a corporation) to lose the advantageous service arrangements, supplied by the co-operative in the past.</p>
<p>Because of all of these issues in transforming co-operatives to corporations, policymakers need to be careful that their settings are fair to co-operative models, to even the playing field.</p>
<p>Farmers also need to think carefully about what structures will preserve their long-term interests. Given that rural produce (not including mining) accounted for A$4.1 billion in exports out of a <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/39433889d406eeb9ca2570610019e9a5/6939d66e306d0410ca2572eb001effc9!OpenDocument">total of A$32.9 billion in goods and services exports</a> in September 2017 (or 12.5% of total exports) Australia needs to get these structures right.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Duffy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the pressure for co-operatives to fold into the dominant corporation model, these business models are still worthy.Michael Duffy, Lecturer and Researcher, Monash Business School, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/601842016-06-05T20:12:31Z2016-06-05T20:12:31ZHigher supermarket prices for milk won’t necessarily help farmers<p>A fall in the farm gate price of milk and <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/milk-crisis">the pain felt by dairy farmers</a> as a result, has many pointing the finger at supermarkets for discounting the price in the so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/milk-wars-pointing-the-finger-at-coles-and-woolworths-529">“milk wars.”</a> However the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-18/barnaby-joyce-urges-supermarkets-to-do-more-to-help-dairy-farms/7424862">suggested solution</a> of raising the price we pay for milk to pass on more profit to farmers is misguided.</p>
<p>Supermarkets have been driving down the cost of basic goods like milk since 2011. But the actual underlying culprit for the fall in prices has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/milk-price-cuts-reflect-the-reality-of-sweeping-changes-in-global-dairy-market-59251">the global glut of supply relative to demand</a> driving down the world price, with only a partial offset from the decline in the Australian exchange rate. </p>
<p>Others have <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-to-get-regulation-back-into-australian-dairy-599200">advocated for a return</a> to the regulation of the 20th century with a domestic price set at a premium, or retailers selling branded milk at a premium and returning a share to dairy farmers. In reality, the likely income gain from increasing prices for domestic milk sales would be small. </p>
<p>Australia’s current industry policy is to let market forces set prices, investment and employment across different sectors and industries, rather than government “picking winners” and subsidising selected industries. Setting prices for the dairy industry, would be a return to the “bad old days” with a risk of a decrease in farm productivity. </p>
<h2>Market Context</h2>
<p>About <a href="http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/agcomd9abcc004/agcomd9abcc20160301_cQe9T/AgCommodities201603_v1.0.0.pdf">25% of farm milk production</a> goes to fresh milk sales for domestic consumption. In turn, about a half goes to supermarkets where the store brands, sold for a dollar a litre, account for a bit <a href="http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/%7E/media/Documents/Stats%20and%20markets/S%20and%20O/2016-06%20S%20and%20O/2016-06%20Situation%20and%20Outlook.pdf">over half of all supermarket sales</a>. Some branded milk sells for nearly double the store brand milk. </p>
<p>If more people switched to buy a more expensive brand of milk, how many would it take to make enough returns to save dairy farmers? At the moment the maximum amount of milk sold for a dollar a litre would represent about 8% of current farm production. </p>
<p>The remaining 75% of farm milk is used to manufacture a range of products, including butter, cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder. Roughly half of the butter and cheese is exported, and 70% of the milk powder. Australia imports cheese as well as exports. The Australian dairy industry depends on the world market for much of its production.</p>
<p>Another aspect that determines the returns for dairy farmers is the world price for manufactured dairy products, adjusted for movements in the Australian exchange rate. If supermarkets raised the farm gate price of milk above that which other countries pay for milk products, processors would switch from manufacturing these products to processing milk instead.</p>
<p>By the same argument, if some retailers are paying farmers above the export parity price, competitors will bid milk away from exporters and undercut the high payers to drive prices back to export parity. That is, the export price provides both a floor and a ceiling to the price which supermarkets can negotiate.</p>
<p>Australian dairy product exports represent a small share of world trade of dairy products, and a very much smaller share of world production. While it would be an oversimplification to say Australia doesn’t have a stake in setting the global dairy price, a 10% or 20% increase in Australian exports would require a very small export price reduction. </p>
<h2>A return to ‘the bad old days’</h2>
<p>Set prices for dairy products, and other agricultural products, were phased out as a part of economic reform in the 1980s and 1990s for a more productive economy and the reasons for this remain valid today. </p>
<p>Setting a price for domestic sales, in this case milk, above the export price leads to a battle between different parties and lobby groups as to what price to set, it may also influence consumers’ decisions as to what they buy and arguably some more than others. It could also shift more resources on farms into the dairy industry, chasing a higher price and away from other types of production (which are set by a global price) such as meat or horticulture.</p>
<p>For those dairy farm households facing poverty as a consequence of the slump in world prices, it is more direct and effective to provide direct household support than to artificially increase the product price for all dairy farmers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60184/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Freebairn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Paying a higher price for milk at the supermarket won’t help farmers much as the Australian dairy industry is more exposed to international markets.John Freebairn, Professor, Department of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/595952016-05-22T20:06:39Z2016-05-22T20:06:39ZMurray Goulburn and Fonterra are playing chicken with dairy farmers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123124/original/image-20160519-22310-19bce32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dairy giants Murray Goulburn and Fonterra competed in a race to the bottom.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">cskk/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Dairy giants Murray Goulburn and Fonterra <a href="http://www.gametheory.net/dictionary/games/GameofChicken.html">played a dangerous game of chicken</a> by hanging onto high milk prices despite the global dairy market volatility. Even though both cooperatives are shifting responsibility to each other for the fall in milk prices, which is pushing dairy farmers to the brink, they are both at fault for their race to the bottom. Now both will have to work hard to win back the trust of farmers. </p>
<p>The two companies, both cooperatives (although Fonterra has most of its members in New Zealand) compete head-to-head for farmer suppliers in Australia. Fonterra is the world’s largest dairy exporter accounting for about 40% of global dairy trade and is the fourth largest dairy company behind Nestle, Danone and Lactalis with an annual gross revenue of A$17.61 billion, and 1200 suppliers in Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia. By contrast Murray Goulburn has annual sales revenues of A$2.87 billion, 9% of the global trade market and has 2500 suppliers in Victoria and Tasmania. </p>
<p>Since 2005, when Fonterra purchased Bonlac the two companies have fought for suppliers in Australia and grown their respective businesses to meet increasing global demand for dairy product. Their resulting pricing models to farmers were assured while dairy prices continued to rise. Farmers accepted claw back provisions - it was never thought that they would be invoked - and the companies accepted loose contractual obligations to supply. The competitive environment that ensued, from which dairy farmers benefited meant that neither company was able to hold the mantle of market leader for long. </p>
<p>The game of chicken was on as <a href="https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/Hub+Sites/News+and+Media/Media+Releases/FONTERRA+FORECASTS+TOTAL+PAYOUT+AVAILABLE+TO+FARMERS+FOR+201516+AND+ANNOUNCES+FONTERRA+CO-OP+SUPPORT">early as August, 2015</a> when Fonterra began reducing its advance payments to New Zealand dairy farmers). Throughout the following eight months Murray Goulburn and Fonterra steadfastly sat behind their respective wheels committed to hanging tough. Much was at stake.</p>
<p>For both cooperatives a reduction in advance payments to their suppliers in March, or earlier would have saved them considerable reputational risk, and in many cases reduced the exposure of dairy farmers to financial failure. Instead they chose not to swerve, but to hang tough, failing to ignore the <a href="https://theconversation.com/milk-price-cuts-reflect-the-reality-of-sweeping-changes-in-global-dairy-market-59251">significant decline in global prices</a>, for which they both appeared oblivious. </p>
<p>While Murray Goulburn swerved first by lowering the milk solid price, they did so far too late. Fonterra swerved last, but by then the events in the international market had raced past the game – leaving both companies’ suppliers stranded with the over-payment problem from which they now suffer. Recklessly both cooperatives thought they could run the gauntlet with global dairy. That they actually did so for eight months is testimony to the merits of market competition. </p>
<p>Where to now for the two beleaguered companies and suffering dairy farmers? The benchmark for corporate behaviour and accepting responsibility for ‘bad’ outcomes was <a href="http://iml.jou.ufl.edu/projects/Fall02/Susi/tylenol.htm">set by Johnson & Johnson in 1982</a>. </p>
<p>The handling of the Tylenol crisis, where a series of poisoning deaths resulted from drug tampering, set the standard for corporate ethics against which all other subsequent behaviours can be compared. Johnson & Johnson took responsibility, took action and set about the recovery – despite not being responsible for the tampering of their product on shop shelves in Chicago. </p>
<p>It will be through remedial behaviour by each of the dairy giants over the next months that these cooperatives will re-cement their relationships with suppliers, as they both try to win over farmers and gain disproportionate market share at the others’ expense. The outcome both cooperatives have been seeking since Fonterra’s market entry in 2005. </p>
<p>Fonterra have reiterated the view that they warned farmers that the price paid did not <a href="https://www.fonterra.com/wps/wcm/connect/Fonterra_NewZealand_en/Fonterra/Hub%20Sites/News%20and%20Media/Media%20Releases/FONTERRA%20AUSTRALIA%20REVISES%20MILK%20PRICE%20FOR%20MAY%20AND%20JUNE%202016%20AND%20INTRODUCES%20SUPPORT%20LOAN/FONTERRA%20AUSTRALIA%20REVISES%20MILK%20PRICE%20FOR%20MAY%20AND%20JUNE%202016%20AND%20INTRODUCES%20SUPPORT%20LOAN?pageID=Z6QReDePPO8MIDC3JD2JM4CLHCGJMG6GPO4JM4733DIJM46G1DCJIT65BEC3OK6J1">reflect the collapse in global dairy prices</a> yet appear to have left the responsibility to them to manage. </p>
<p>Worse, Fonterra’s CEO, Theo Speirings, has now <a href="http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/304226/fonterra-'robbing-from-australia-to-help-nz'">defended the price cut</a> on the grounds that their strategy is to repatriate profit for the benefit of their New Zealand shareholders. This overlooks that the majority that of tradeable shares are held by Australian superannuation funds and that Fonterra’s Australian suppliers had to be subsidising their New Zealand counterparts. How else do you explain the 30% increase in farm gate price on this side of the Tasman? </p>
<p>By contrast Murray Goulburn’s behaviour, especially that towards their suppliers, appears far more conciliatory. Murray Goulburn has been transparent about resignations from the board and management; open about reorganisation and appointment of their interim CEO, David Mallinson; and, shared with suppliers the prioritisation of effort. </p>
<p>They have now offered suppliers a Milk Supply Support Package designed to spread the impact of lower milk payments across the next three years. This package sits on the cooperative’s balance sheet - where it should - with no need to take on individual loans at supplier level. </p>
<p>Whether or not either company can emulate the recovery of Johnson & Johnson remains to be seen, but it is reasonable to expect considerable energy, effort and enterprise being expended by them in the months that follow. </p>
<p>Telling evidence will be reflected in market share in 12 months.</p>
<p><em>This piece has been altered since publication to correct Fonterra’s annual gross revenue, which is $A17.61 billion and Murray Goulburn’s annual sales revenue, which is $A2.87 billion.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59595/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two of the largest dairy cooperatives have been playing with farmers by pursuing a high price for milk when both should have taken into account fluctuations in the global dairy markets.James Lockhart, Senior Lecturer, School of Management, Massey UniversityDanny Donaghy, Professor of Dairy Production Systems, Massey UniversityHamish Gow, Professor of Agribusiness, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/592512016-05-12T05:38:10Z2016-05-12T05:38:10ZMilk price cuts reflect the reality of sweeping changes in global dairy market<p>A structural change is underway in global dairy markets. A perfect storm has emerged through a coincidence of events, technology, and policy changes across the major dairy producing nations, including Australia, which will result in a long term significant reset of dairy economics across the globe. </p>
<p>Cooperatives Murray Goulburn and Fonterra have both dramatically reduced the prices they offer dairy farmers for milk, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/dairy-farmers-go-to-war-on-murray-goulburn-fonterra-cuts-20160508-gop2lr.html?logout=true">sparking a backlash from farmers</a>, who say they will be pushed into the red and out of dairy. </p>
<p>It is only due to the strength of the two cooperatives in absorbing the costs of high milk prices in a changing market that these reductions did not occur earlier.
The cooperatives have shown an inadequate understanding of global dairy economics by over-paying farmers and by seeking to <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/79872452/fonterra-australia-farmers-up-in-arms-over-payment-clawback">claw back over-paid advances</a>.</p>
<p>The low prices have been blamed on a short-term <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/fitch-home/pressrelease?id=1001848">oversupply coinciding with a reduction in demand</a> from China and Russia. Some of this demand is now being met by Chinese investment in both Australia and New Zealand which also contributes to the changes underway. But the debate thus far has focused on problems with demand while ignoring the bigger issue of increasing global over-supply.</p>
<p>The preoccupation with the belief that global demand will solve emerging on-farm production cost difficulties and that a <a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11499035">“substantial improvement in prices was still expected by mid-2016”</a> was naïve and failed to recognise how quickly, and irreversibly global dairy supply can change.</p>
<p>Since the mid-2000s a strong increase in demand for milk products across Asia, largely on the back of rising middle-income wealth led to the complete depletion of surplus dairy stocks in the European Union and the US. This change to the supply-demand equilibrium resulted in a temporary sea-change in dairy markets because growth in <a href="http://theglobaldairy.com/noticias/milk-demand-to-outstrip-supply-in-next-decade-41049/">demand simply outpaced growth</a> in supply by between 50% and 100% in some markets on an annual basis.</p>
<p>To a large extent this imbalance had been driven by regulation of the global supply market in which only a few export nations competed – Australia and New Zealand included. It resulted in higher than historical average dairy prices in global markets, but considerably more short-term volatility due to global GDP shocks and <a href="http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/buying-and-supplying/fmcg-prices-and-promotions/dairy-demand-will-outstrip-supply-by-2018/372289.article">short-term supply-demand imbalances</a>. </p>
<p>Regrettably a critical assumption that appears to have emerged among producers during this period, as evidenced by continued investment and expansion, was that the real price for global dairy commodities was increasing, a trend they expected to continue in the long term.</p>
<p>The current dairy price scenario, which would historically have been short-lived, is in fact masking underlying structural changes to supply-side dynamics that are now underway. Only approximately <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i1522e/i1522e02.pdf">7% of globally produced milk is traded</a> (65 billion milk-equivalent litres). Therefore, a small change in supply globally has a profound effect on the global dairy market equilibrium. </p>
<p>The EU is the world’s largest milk producer, <a href="http://www2.fonterra.com/our-financials/the-global-dairy-industry">with approximately 160 billion litres produced annually</a>. The <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i1522e/i1522e02.pdf">removal of milk production quotas</a> in March 2015 presented an opportunity for dairy expansion and, even more importantly, one that is no longer confined to the traditional dairy exporters of Ireland, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. </p>
<p>Under quota, <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/eval/reports/dairy/chapter2_en.pdf">EU exports doubled</a> between 2000 and 2013 to 9.5 billion litres and are anticipated to increase again this coming season. Quota removal has freed dairy farmers in central and Eastern Europe to increase in scale considerably, availing themselves of technologies denied during the Cold War years. Coupled with the removal of regulations concerning the transportation of liquid milk across borders, producers and processors now find themselves with opportunities for growth not experienced since the second world war.</p>
<p>Political policies in the world’s third largest dairy producer, the USA, are also likely to influence global dairy supply in the future. Current dairy production is being stimulated by low feed prices, which were <a href="http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/htrcp/htrcp-04-14-2016.pdf">driven by record yield seasons</a> in 2013 and 2014, similar levels in 2015 and new <a href="http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf">projected highs</a> this year.</p>
<p>Eighty percent of US dairy farm costs are feed. The reduction in feed costs from US$29.26 per 100kg milk in August 2012 to US$18.04 per 100 kg milk in June 2015 has greatly increased the value of marginal production. </p>
<p>The advent of large-scale fracking, which has resulted in a significant reduction in the price of oil, will likely maintain lower corn prices, at least in the short-term. This comes as the reduced value of biofuels re-focus the use of corn back to a feedstuffs for farmed livestock. The net result is that 75% of every new tonne of production across the USA is expected to be sold on the global surplus market.</p>
<p>Farmers have fought for free trade and open access for decades on both sides of the Tasman. Now that it is emerging, profitable returns will be caught first by the lowest cost global producer. </p>
<p>We are fools to think that that will be either Australia or New Zealand. Therefore, possibly with the exception of the US market, a downward reset is in store for global dairy prices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cooperatives like Murray Goulburn and Fonterra and dairy farmers need to accept that lower milk prices will be the new normal in a more competitive global market.James Lockhart, Senior Lecturer, School of Management, Massey UniversityDanny Donaghy, Professor of Dairy Production Systems, Massey UniversityHamish Gow, Professor of Agribusiness, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/382722015-08-11T15:46:52Z2015-08-11T15:46:52ZCheap milk is a global phenomenon – so don’t blame the supermarkets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91447/original/image-20150811-11097-ev51hz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/6970541886/">US Department of Agriculture</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>British dairy farmers are once again protesting over the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33842001">low prices on offer</a> for their milk. They worry that too many producers are going bust, and that long-term milk supplies are at risk.</p>
<p>Supermarkets are usually cast as the villains in this piece and this time it is no different. Farming unions are <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/11/milk-price-row-farming-union-leaders-meet-morrisons-bosses">meeting Morrisons</a> to ask for a fairer deal – and protesters in Stafford even took <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-33840815">two cows</a> into an Asda branch to help make their point.</p>
<p>However it is too simplistic to blame the supermarkets – the real problem is global. Too much low-value milk is being produced around the world.</p>
<h2>Too much milk …</h2>
<p>Over the past decade, UK milk production averaged <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/430411/auk-2014-28may15a.pdf">14 billion litres</a> per year, of which around 500m litres are exported. Just 139m litres are imported. Milk made in the UK tends to stay in the UK. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91467/original/image-20150811-14995-n5hnh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91467/original/image-20150811-14995-n5hnh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91467/original/image-20150811-14995-n5hnh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91467/original/image-20150811-14995-n5hnh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91467/original/image-20150811-14995-n5hnh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91467/original/image-20150811-14995-n5hnh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91467/original/image-20150811-14995-n5hnh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91467/original/image-20150811-14995-n5hnh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=724&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What happens to that 14 billion litres?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/430411/auk-2014-28may15a.pdf">Defra</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nonetheless the number of dairy farmers continues to decline, from 40,000 at the start of the 1990s to <a href="http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02721/SN02721.pdf">14,159 in 2013</a>. This is alarming to some, but it shouldn’t be. For long-term security of milk supplies, it doesn’t really matter how many dairy farmers pack up production. The cows often move to another farm and it is easy enough to step up production through more intensive feeding and selective breeding.</p>
<p>After all, even though the total number of cows in the UK has halved <a href="http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02721/SN02721.pdf">since the 1970s</a>, production has remained steady thanks to the fact average yields have doubled. Farmers are literally squeezing more out of each cow. </p>
<h2>… that no one wants</h2>
<p>Half of domestic milk production has to be diverted from the more lucrative liquid market into cheese, yoghurt, ice cream, butter and other manufactured products. </p>
<p>This is partly because people drink a lot less milk these days; from five pints per week in the 1960s to around three pints today. Consumption is down 8.1% in the past ten years alone. Any industry would struggle in such circumstances.</p>
<p>This supply and demand problem is replicated across the world – and there is currently a massive oversupply of manufactured milk products on world markets due largely to increased production in China, India, Brazil and New Zealand (where they are dealing with <a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11493616">similar issues</a>).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91458/original/image-20150811-11077-1rc4cvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91458/original/image-20150811-11077-1rc4cvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91458/original/image-20150811-11077-1rc4cvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91458/original/image-20150811-11077-1rc4cvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91458/original/image-20150811-11077-1rc4cvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91458/original/image-20150811-11077-1rc4cvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91458/original/image-20150811-11077-1rc4cvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Got milk?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gwire/2193257234/">gwire</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This surplus, combined with a collapse in global demand <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33857629">especially in China</a>, has depressed prices. A Russian import ban in retaliation for EU action over Ukraine has also hit prices. Russia used to buy 27% of the EU’s cheese exports and <a href="http://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/resources-library/market-information/dairy-statistics/dairy-statistics-an-insiders-guide-2014/#.VcoJMZ1Viko">19% of its butter</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.globaldairytrade.info/">Global Dairy Trade</a> auction, the industry’s main dairy commodities index, hit a 13-year low in August 2015. The GDT has now <a href="http://cbw.ge/world/global-dairy-prices-fall-to-13-year-low/">lost 64% of its value</a> since a record high in February 2014. </p>
<h2>What this means for your local farmer</h2>
<p>The amount paid to farmers – the UK’s farm gate price – has declined sharply since early 2014 to just <a href="http://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/milk-prices-contracts/farmgate-prices/uk,-gb-and-ni-farmgate-prices/#.Vcnt0J1Viko">23.66p per litre</a>. When it costs farmers <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33857629">around 30p</a> to produce each litre, it’s easy to see why they are annoyed.</p>
<p>The major milk processors have to balance their operations across the various markets they sell in and, as a consequence, pay dairy farmers an average price. Farmers will not get, and should not expect to get, the supermarket price for liquid milk. Some supermarkets – Tesco, Marks & Spencer, Sainsbury’s and Waitrose – have agreed direct contracts with dairy farmers that allow them to recover their production costs, but these only involve a small number of farms.</p>
<p>Retail supermarket prices for liquid milk are much higher than farm gate, at typically 55-60p per pint (£1.30 or so per litre), but there is no evidence that milk is being used as a “loss leader”. <a href="http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/buying-and-supplying/asda-slashes-price-of-four-pints-of-milk-to-89p/511481.article">Four pints for 89p</a> at Asda is probably as low as they can get, but the price spread is understandable, appropriate and market-justified; we can’t just hold supermarkets alone responsible. If there is a villain in this piece, it is the world market.</p>
<p>With too much supply and not enough demand, farmers have two options. Those near big cities can opt out of the globalised milk market through establishing <a href="http://www.firstmilk.co.uk/">farmer co-operatives</a> to supply just the local area where they can possibly charge higher prices. Or they can seek high-value, niche markets such as yoghurts, farm-produced ice cream and organic milk.</p>
<p>One other way of dealing with supply-demand imbalances would be to bring back dairy quotas, at least at lower levels. The EU introduced quotas in 1984 to control milk production and eradicate butter mountains but they were <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/sections/agriculture-food/eu-puts-end-30-years-milk-quotas-313433">abolished</a> in April this year. </p>
<p>The problem currently facing the British dairy industry is that it is easy to produce milk in the UK’s green, wet and pleasant land, but it is very difficult to find profitable markets for 14 billion litres of the stuff. Until dairy farmers resolve this overproduction dilemma, many will continue to go out of business. </p>
<p>Uneconomic dairy farms, like uneconomic coal mines, must close down and the adjustment process is harsh and painful for farmers and miners alike. In today’s highly globalised world a more humane outcome is unlikely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38272/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Lingard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Across the world prices have dropped 64% as too much milk is being produced.John Lingard, Associate, Centre for Rural Economy, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/360322015-01-12T06:22:15Z2015-01-12T06:22:15ZHard Evidence: is the UK heading towards mega-dairy farms?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68501/original/image-20150108-23812-vfbg44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is Daisy doomed to a life indoors?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-196815971/stock-photo-cow-in-farm.html?src=csl_recent_image-1">Tanathip Rattanatum</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dairy sector in the UK is going through a period of high uncertainty. Not only are suppliers having to cope with retail price wars and the fact that milk prices are being reduced by the <a href="http://www.farmersguardian.com/home/hot-topics/dairy-industry/why-are-uk-milk-prices-falling?/67400.article">increasing alignment</a> of domestic and world dairy prices, they are also facing the fact that milk quotas <a href="https://www.gov.uk/end-of-the-milk-quota-scheme">will be eliminated</a> in March, which promises to fully expose the sector to market forces. </p>
<p>So it is not surprising that recent discussions have focused on how the dairy sector in the UK should adapt. <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/front_page/newsid_9294000/9294893.stm">Some view</a> the future as inevitably going towards mega-dairy farms, imitating those existing in the US, where thousands of cows are milked under huge sheds without seeing the sun, in something that is closer to an intensive factory than a farm. </p>
<p>Whether this comes to pass depends on whether these mega-dairy farms are the only solution to maintain the competitiveness of the sector and therefore its survival. In the UK there are just a handful of dairy farms with herds of over 1000 cows, whereas in the US they can be ten times that size. The prospect raises two questions: are farms whose practices resemble mega-dairies, including feeding cows in-house all year round, more profitable, and does this necessarily mean low animal welfare standards?</p>
<h2>Don’t chew cud, chew numbers</h2>
<p>First some context. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/agriculture-in-the-united-kingdom">average price</a> received by farmers in 2014 (up to October) was 32.17p/litre (though it can vary by over 10p/litre depending on the nature of a farmer’s supply contract). This is much about 6.7 times higher than the average milk price received in 1973, though in fact the price has fallen since then once you adjust for inflation. This doesn’t take into account the effect of the cost of production, however. If the cost of production has fallen faster than the wholesale price of milk, this might not be a problem. </p>
<p>Unfortunately historic production costs are not available. But we do have historic feedstuff costs going back to 1988 from the department of agriculture, which are the highest component of costs (more than double labour, which is second). So these can give us some idea of what has been happening. As can be seen from the chart that I have used these figures to plot below, this suggests that the true price of milk that farmers receive has fallen since 1995. </p>
<p><strong>The true farmers’ price of milk</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68476/original/image-20150108-23816-1t2o26m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68476/original/image-20150108-23816-1t2o26m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68476/original/image-20150108-23816-1t2o26m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68476/original/image-20150108-23816-1t2o26m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68476/original/image-20150108-23816-1t2o26m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68476/original/image-20150108-23816-1t2o26m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68476/original/image-20150108-23816-1t2o26m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68476/original/image-20150108-23816-1t2o26m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cesar Revoredo/Defra</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The decrease in milk prices reflects how competitive the sector has become, partly because retailers drive down prices and partly because of increasing competition from other food products. The chart below shows the decline in purchases of milk products, driven by a strong decline in the consumption of full-fat milk that has not been replaced by skimmed milks (note that cheese consumption has been rising but not very strongly). </p>
<p><strong>UK weekly dairy consumption per capita</strong> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68478/original/image-20150108-23810-16jgkco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68478/original/image-20150108-23810-16jgkco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68478/original/image-20150108-23810-16jgkco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68478/original/image-20150108-23810-16jgkco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68478/original/image-20150108-23810-16jgkco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68478/original/image-20150108-23810-16jgkco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68478/original/image-20150108-23810-16jgkco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68478/original/image-20150108-23810-16jgkco.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Family Food/Defra</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This drop in demand for milk products has led to a structural adjustment in the sector, reducing both the number of dairy cows and dairy farms in the UK. Here’s the trend going back to the mid-1990s:</p>
<p><strong>Dairy farms and dairy cows</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68479/original/image-20150108-23798-l1pnkh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68479/original/image-20150108-23798-l1pnkh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68479/original/image-20150108-23798-l1pnkh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68479/original/image-20150108-23798-l1pnkh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68479/original/image-20150108-23798-l1pnkh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68479/original/image-20150108-23798-l1pnkh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68479/original/image-20150108-23798-l1pnkh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68479/original/image-20150108-23798-l1pnkh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DairyCo/Defra</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Notice that the number of cows has been falling more slowly than the number of farms. This implies that the number of cows per farm has been growing, which might suggest that we are heading towards mega-farms. It is also worth pointing out that there has not been a corresponding drop in the volume of milk being produced. This is because yields per cow have been growing steadily thanks to a combination of technological advances and more high-yielding cows. </p>
<p><strong>Milk production and yields</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68480/original/image-20150108-23786-3b8sim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68480/original/image-20150108-23786-3b8sim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68480/original/image-20150108-23786-3b8sim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68480/original/image-20150108-23786-3b8sim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68480/original/image-20150108-23786-3b8sim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68480/original/image-20150108-23786-3b8sim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68480/original/image-20150108-23786-3b8sim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68480/original/image-20150108-23786-3b8sim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Defra</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25306285">recent UK survey</a> by Scotland’s Rural College found that of the country’s 863 dairy farms, the traditional British dairy management style of all-summer grazing and winter-only indoor feeding was practised by less than a third of respondents, and on average, herd sizes were larger within systems that feed indoors. This would mean that the proportion of cows being milked in such farms will be rather higher. </p>
<p>This decline in grazing has happened in many countries. Reasons include difficulty in controlling feed rations for high-yielding animals, uncertainty of grass supply in some countries, practical difficulties such as walking distances and lying times, and the availability of a stable labour force. High-yielding cows <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25306285">can also demand</a> up to five times as much energy, which can be difficult to achieve by a grazing and silage-based diet. This can mean that some additional feeding is required.</p>
<h2>Moo-ney, moo-ney, moo-ney</h2>
<p>But if this is the trend, what about profitability? Interestingly well managed grazing-based farms do not seem to be less profitable than those that rely more on indoor feeding. Milkbench+, the dairy benchmarking agency, found it is possible to produce milk efficiently at almost any scale and at any level of outputs, as detailed in this figure: </p>
<p><strong>Profitability and herd size</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68486/original/image-20150108-23792-vycb3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68486/original/image-20150108-23792-vycb3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68486/original/image-20150108-23792-vycb3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68486/original/image-20150108-23792-vycb3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68486/original/image-20150108-23792-vycb3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68486/original/image-20150108-23792-vycb3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68486/original/image-20150108-23792-vycb3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68486/original/image-20150108-23792-vycb3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25306285">Milkbench+</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But while the above figures are based on profitability per litre of milk produced, a very important point is that most probably very small herds will not provide sufficient income for owners. This can make the size of the enterprise a key aspect, depending on the farmer’s objectives. </p>
<h2>The welfare question</h2>
<p>Grazing-based systems have on average fewer cows than farms with indoor-based feeding systems. And certainly, housing and management style can affect the welfare of dairy cows. It <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/oct/02/-sp-battle-soul-british-milk">has been reported</a> that the British public is opposed to indoor dairy systems – though many will not be aware that traditional British systems have cows spending winters indoors anyway. </p>
<p>The Farm Animal Welfare Council <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25306285">says that</a> housed dairy cows in the UK can have an acceptable standard of welfare as long as suitable housing is provided together with skilled animal husbandry and veterinary practice. Nevertheless, continually housed dairy cows can be <a href="http://www.ciwf.org.uk/farm-animals/cows/dairy-cows/welfare-issues/">susceptible to</a> a range of health issues in feet and legs and are at greater risk of health disorders such as mastitis and retained placenta. </p>
<p>There are techniques that may lower the incidence of some health issues, however. And dairy cows maintained in grazing systems may also be at risk of health issues such as lameness and milk fever and are also exposed to prevailing weather conditions.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68512/original/image-20150108-23801-14xubwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68512/original/image-20150108-23801-14xubwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68512/original/image-20150108-23801-14xubwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68512/original/image-20150108-23801-14xubwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68512/original/image-20150108-23801-14xubwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68512/original/image-20150108-23801-14xubwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68512/original/image-20150108-23801-14xubwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68512/original/image-20150108-23801-14xubwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Milky as charged?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&searchterm=milk&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=96837358">Somchai Som</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are still a variety of dairy management systems in use but there does certainly seem to be a clear trend towards farming that feeds more time indoors. If larger farms don’t necessarily mean more profitability – or lower welfare standards, thanks to our UK legislation – it may well be that farmers are making up for lower margins by seeking to generate more income from their holdings. </p>
<p>A couple of positive closing thoughts: We always have the option of buying our dairy products from farmers that support higher welfare standards. And a shift towards larger indoor farms is unlikely to result in US-style mega-dairy farms – we simply don’t have the space.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/hard-evidence">Hard Evidence</a> is a series of articles in which academics use research evidence to tackle the trickiest public policy questions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36032/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bethan's PhD is funded by the Scottish Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cesar Revoredo-Giha does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The dairy sector in the UK is going through a period of high uncertainty. Not only are suppliers having to cope with retail price wars and the fact that milk prices are being reduced by the increasing…Cesar Revoredo-Giha, Senior Economist and Team Leader of Food Marketing Research, Scotland's Rural CollegeBethan Thompson, PhD Student, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/312492014-09-04T15:03:18Z2014-09-04T15:03:18ZDrain the milk lake and create a windfall of healthier, happier, greener cows<p>Milk, a precious resource in many parts of the world, has become a throwaway commodity in wealthy countries. For example, in the UK, an estimated 4.2m tonnes of foodstuffs wasted per year are wasted, of which milk is in the top three. In 2012, the country disposed of 420,000 tonnes of avoidable dairy and egg waste, <a href="http://www.wrap.org.uk/content/household-food-and-drink-waste-uk-2012">costing £780m</a>; perhaps no surprise as supermarkets retail milk for as little as 44p per litre. Bottled water can be two to three times the price.</p>
<p>Such extreme market forces lead to vanishing profit margins, so the dairy industry has had to become super-efficient: fewer, larger herds typically with several hundred, high-yielding Holstein cows capable of producing 10,000 litres per annual lactation cycle, milked by a single dairyman. </p>
<p>These remarkable cattle are the result of highly selective breeding over many generations using a very small pool of elite bulls capable of producing over a million offspring by artificial insemination. A marvellous exemplar of sustainable intensification and food security though application of modern science and technology … perhaps?</p>
<p>From another perspective, the industry has boxed itself into a tight and uncomfortable corner. Modern Holstein dairy cows only last for two to three lactations, rather than the five to eight (or more) of more traditional systems. These animals carry a heavy burden of nutritional and metabolic diseases and poor fertility, often with adverse consequences for welfare that require routine treatment with antibiotics and hormones – all justifiably of concern to the consumer. An average of 37% of Holstein cattle <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3168/jds.2009-2309">suffer from painful lameness</a>, significantly more so than other breeds.</p>
<p>The Holstein cow is arguably the world’s <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17491151">least fertile farm animal</a>. Around 60% require hormonal treatments for successful pregnancy, an obvious prerequisite to the annual calving and lactation cycle. These treatments may not be harmful to consumers, but routine use of hormones for growth promotion in farm animals was banned in the EU in 1988, and consumers are ill-informed about the risks involved.</p>
<p>The prodigious milk yield of Holstein cows involves consumption of energy and protein far beyond the levels available from pasture. They must be fed a grain-rich diet they are ill-equipped to digest, consuming in a single lactation more than their own body weight of cereals. </p>
<p>Feeding cereals to multi-stomached ruminants such as cattle negates much of their evolutionary advantage, namely their ability to digest fibrous plant material such as forage, green waste and by-products that are of low nutritional value to species such as pigs, poultry or indeed humans. Importantly, cereals are potential human food and are generally produced using polluting artificial fertiliser. In addition, digestive disorders such as displaced abomasum (one of the cow’s four stomachs) were a relative rarity a generation ago but are now commonplace.</p>
<p>In the UK, a minority of dairy farmers use alternative breeds, such as the British Friesian, Ayrshire, or the Montbéliarde. They yield up to 8,000 litres per lactation, but these cows are more robust and are <a href="http://www.freerangedairy.org">fed primarily off grass</a> or preserved forage in winter, with a modest level of concentrate supplements at peak lactation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/58174/original/5svth7b6-1409761283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/58174/original/5svth7b6-1409761283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58174/original/5svth7b6-1409761283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58174/original/5svth7b6-1409761283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58174/original/5svth7b6-1409761283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58174/original/5svth7b6-1409761283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/58174/original/5svth7b6-1409761283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Montbéliarde cows: happier?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/jmdesfilhes/1027870470/">jmdesfilhes</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lameness, mastitis, metabolic disease and infertility are far less frequent than in intensively managed Holsteins. Welfare is less of an issue and antibiotics are rarely necessary, if used at all. Many of these breeds are dual purpose, so their male calves are suitable for rearing for beef, unlike Holsteins in which males are generally disposed of at birth. Dairy cows fed in pasture also require less inorganic fertiliser for cereal production, with less associated environmental pollution. </p>
<p>A change to a less intensive dairy production system would be in keeping with a broader vision, laying down a number of the <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/agriculture-steps-to-sustainable-livestock-1.14796">basic principles for sustainable livestock</a>. One of the central tenets is reduction in consumption of livestock products by humans, with consumption focussed on quality rather than quantity. It is worth noting that milk and dairy products from grass-fed cattle are higher in N-3 fatty acids, and conjugated linoleic acids.</p>
<p>Finally, much attention has been placed on cattle as a source of methane, accounting for the majority share of the 14.5% of man-made greenhouse gas attributed to livestock. It is difficult to predict the value of managerial change to a less intensive dairy system, but there could be other immediate environmental benefits, such as reduction in artificial fertiliser use. For example, <a href="http://ebooks.cambridge.org/chapter.jsf?bid=CBO9780511976988&cid=CBO9780511976988A014">current analysis</a> suggests the overall environmental costs of inorganic nitrogen use in Europe (estimated at €70–€320 billion per year) outweighs its direct economic benefits to agriculture.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v512/n7515/full/512371b.html">Pareto principle</a> (80:20 rule) is arguably at work here: with the Ayrshire and other less extreme dairy breeds you get 80% of the yield for perhaps only 20% of the welfare cost, and maybe just 20% of the environmental costs too. Given that today’s overweight consumers perceive milk as low-value and currently throw much of it away, having only 80% of today’s supply might not be too high a price for a sustainable future with healthier, happier cows.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Eisler receives funding from the BBSRC, the Royal Society, the Worldwide Universities Network and the Global Innovation Initiative.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Martin has received funding from the Australian Research Council, Meat & Livestock Australia, and the Rural Industries Research & Development Corporation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Lee receives funding from BBSRC.</span></em></p>Milk, a precious resource in many parts of the world, has become a throwaway commodity in wealthy countries. For example, in the UK, an estimated 4.2m tonnes of foodstuffs wasted per year are wasted, of…Mark Eisler, Chair in Global Farm Animal Health, University of BristolGraeme Martin, Winthrop Professor, The University of Western AustraliaMichael Lee, Reader in Sustainable Livestock and Food Security, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/306912014-08-22T05:13:14Z2014-08-22T05:13:14ZYou won’t help farmers in Africa by just throwing money at them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57076/original/4zcjjtq5-1408627662.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Farmers delivering by bicycle at Chandamale milk station in southern Malawi</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cesar Revoredo-Giha</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Governments and donors have tried hard to improve dairy farming in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. Many recognise that it has much potential to boost the economic situation of poor farmers in the region. And unlike many other products such as cut flowers or mange tout, it tends to supply local consumers rather than people in other countries. This means that making it affordable has implications for local health, spending power and so forth.</p>
<p>Yet so far, any notion of a “white revolution” in milk production remains far from reality. To understand what is holding it back, I undertook a three-year <a href="http://www.esrc.ac.uk/my-esrc/grants/ES.J009202.1/read">research project</a> into dairy farming in Malawi. My findings suggest that those who want to improve the sector need to look more closely at how the produce gets from the farm to consumers’ kitchens. </p>
<h2>Milk from A to B</h2>
<p>Most of Malawi is suitable for dairy farming, but approximately 90% of commercial milk production is located in Southern Region in the Shire Highlands, a major area of agricultural production on a plateau east of the Shire river. Most of the rest of the country’s milk production is in Central Region, with a remnant in the north. </p>
<p>Raw milk production in Malawi is mainly undertaken by smallholder farmers with typically one to two cows. The number of farmers seems to fluctuate between around 5,000 and 7,500, who produce 80%-90% of the country’s milk between them. </p>
<p>Cows are milked once or twice a day. The amount produced by each cow depends on the animal breed and the feed. Crossbreeds, which are the most common cows in the south, yield between six and 11 litres per day; while pure-bred cows produce between 16 and 30 litres. </p>
<p>Farmers usually deliver the milk by pushbike or on foot to the local milk station – known locally as the “milk bulking group” (though sometimes they sell quantities along the way informally to street vendors). From here it is picked up roughly every second day by the local processor in a refrigerated truck, though the rainy season and poor roads sometimes get in the way. </p>
<p>The milk station pays farmers at the end of each month, based on the amounts delivered that they record in their copybook each day. The price per litre is set by the processor, deducting a small amount to pay for the operation of the milk station. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57067/original/bp8j2x52-1408623592.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57067/original/bp8j2x52-1408623592.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57067/original/bp8j2x52-1408623592.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57067/original/bp8j2x52-1408623592.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57067/original/bp8j2x52-1408623592.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57067/original/bp8j2x52-1408623592.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57067/original/bp8j2x52-1408623592.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57067/original/bp8j2x52-1408623592.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A milk farmer’s copybook with deliveries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cesar Revoredo-Giha</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of the milk that gets processed, approximately 33% is pasteurised to serve the urban market. About 50% goes to ultra-high temperature (UHT) production, which provides a much longer shelf-life and is suitable for sale in rural areas. The remaining 17% goes to other products like yoghurt, chambiko (fermented milk) and butter. </p>
<p>Dairy products are mostly distributed through supermarkets and small retailers, though some processors also employ street vendors. Particularly in poor or rural areas, consumers will also buy raw milk from the streets. </p>
<h2>Milk prices</h2>
<p>Just like any economic activity, dairy needs proper returns if it is to expand. Malawian milk prices shift sporadically, as can be seen from the figure below (real prices red, nominal prices blue). In a country with an annual inflation of above 20%, any rise in the actual price is quickly eroded. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57068/original/gptskq4v-1408623818.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57068/original/gptskq4v-1408623818.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57068/original/gptskq4v-1408623818.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57068/original/gptskq4v-1408623818.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57068/original/gptskq4v-1408623818.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57068/original/gptskq4v-1408623818.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57068/original/gptskq4v-1408623818.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57068/original/gptskq4v-1408623818.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Milk prices</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cesar Revoredo-Giha</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The implications of low prices are quite clear. Brian Lewis, an advisor to the Shire Highlands Milk Producers’ Association, told me that the main driver for improving farming in the area was the milk price. “When the milk price is good, farmers want to produce,” he said. “They feed their cows better, get their cows in calf quicker, everything works. There’s money to pay for veterinary bills, to rear the heifers properly.” </p>
<p>“When the price of milk is poor, everything is the opposite. Farmers don’t want to spend money on treatment for their cows, so the cows don’t do very well, the heifers grow in four years instead of two years, the cows are producing eight litres instead of 15 litres after they calf. When the time comes to do AI [artificial insemination], and they say I cannot afford it … the fundamental thing is money.” </p>
<h2>Processor and supermarket problems</h2>
<p>The whole supply chain is hindered by poor milk quality. The bacteriological level of raw milk is generally high and as a result the milk sours quickly. This is due to unhygienic production conditions; farmers using poor quality water to clean and dirty containers to carry the milk to the stations; and also adulteration. The milk stations do test for adulteration with water, but problems still remain – along with adulteration by bicarbonate of soda to help the milk pass another test for sourness. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57072/original/zbz79hhb-1408624881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57072/original/zbz79hhb-1408624881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57072/original/zbz79hhb-1408624881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57072/original/zbz79hhb-1408624881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57072/original/zbz79hhb-1408624881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57072/original/zbz79hhb-1408624881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1068&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57072/original/zbz79hhb-1408624881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1068&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57072/original/zbz79hhb-1408624881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1068&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Producers weighting and testing milk at Chandamale milk station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cesar Revoredo-Giha</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Evidently there are opportunities for profiting by lowering the standards. For instance, new milk stations open which are less stringent on quality. Farmers shift to them because they accept more water for the same price. And processors always agree to take the milk even if they have an existing milk station next door for fear that if they do not, one of their competitors will. Yet <a href="http://www.sruc.ac.uk/download/downloads/id/1069/current_status_and_future_solutions">processors throw away 17%</a> of raw milk on the grounds that it is not fit for processing. That is a large drag on their costs, which is not good for prices. </p>
<p>Then there are the supermarkets. I was involved in <a href="http://www.value-chains.org/dyn/bds/docs/866/60974_Distribution_of_dairy_product.pdf">an analysis last year</a> of supermarkets and smaller retailers in the two main Malawian cities of Lilongwe and Blantyre, which found that retail margins on dairy products fluctuated between 13% and 149% – even though the margins recommended by processors were between 12% and 22%. </p>
<p>The highest retailers’ margins we found were on 250ml bags of pasteurised and ultra-pasteurised milk – products that are targeted at low-income consumers and therefore particularly important for food security. </p>
<h2>What does this tell us?</h2>
<p>When specialists analyse the Malawian dairy sector, they tend to conclude that there is not enough supply of milk. I would not disagree. Undoubtedly there is the need to increase milk productivity. </p>
<p>To solve this problem, investors and donors tend to focus on the supply side. Examples include increasing the number of cows; replacing the cows for ones with higher yields; improving the quality of feed; subsidising feed; and educating farmers on better practices to improve the quality of milk. </p>
<p>But look again at the price graphic further up. If we agree there is not enough milk, you would expect the laws of supply and demand would push the price higher. Since the graphic shows that this is not happening, and certainly not when you take inflation into account, it suggests the dairy supply chain does not operate properly. </p>
<p>My research tends to agree. It indicates that producer prices are being held back by a failure to properly enforce quality standards and to make sure the retail price is passed down the supply chain. Without this, any investment in farming practices is unlikely to reap dividends. </p>
<p>This point is likely to be applicable in many farming sub-sectors not only in Malawi but across southern Africa. It is always tempting to allow impressive progress in agricultural technology such as new seed varieties or on livestock genetics and their potential for boosting productivity to overshadow other more basic needs for developing farming in the region. </p>
<p>But if you don’t deal with problems in the supply chain, smallholder producers are unlikely to benefit from direct investments. Ultimately this will not have the expected impact on reducing poverty, generating growth and improving food security.</p>
<p>This is not to say that new technology and other direct investments should stop. It is rather to highlight the fact that supply chain reform needs to happen first. Otherwise the prospect of a white revolution in Malawian dairy farming and equivalent advances elsewhere will remain out of reach.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/30691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cesar's research is funded by the Scottish government and DFID-ESRC programme</span></em></p>Governments and donors have tried hard to improve dairy farming in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. Many recognise that it has much potential to boost the economic situation of poor farmers in the region…Cesar Revoredo-Giha, Senior Economist and Team Leader of Food Marketing Research, Scotland's Rural CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.