tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/democratic-primaries-81644/articlesDemocratic primaries – The Conversation2024-02-07T18:53:42Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205292024-02-07T18:53:42Z2024-02-07T18:53:42ZDemocratic organizations struggle with democracy, too. Here’s what they can do about it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573165/original/file-20240203-23-76obv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C23%2C5168%2C3422&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While mini-publics have been capitalized on by governments around the world, their potential has been overlooked by member-based organizations. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8292.2004.00242.x">Democratic member-based organizations</a> like labour unions, co-operatives, student unions and recreational clubs play profound roles in society. </p>
<p>Whether building community, driving social change or grappling with shared challenges around work, childcare and learning, these organizations offer opportunities to <a href="https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/edcoll/9781788114905/9781788114905.00024.xml">advance members’ interests</a> through localized democracy. </p>
<p>The promise they hold is hinted at by their scale. In Canada, for example, labour unions represent <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2022011/article/00001-eng.htm">almost a third</a> of Canadian workers, and there are over <a href="https://coops4dev.coop/sites/default/files/2020-11/Canada%20-%20Key%20Figures%20Report_0.pdf">19 million active memberships</a> in Canada’s more than 6,500 co-operatives.</p>
<p>Yet despite their representative reputations, these organizations often struggle to maintain vibrant, effective democracy. In the final years of Mountain Equipment Co-Op’s (MEC) existence, for example, only about <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4199502">one per cent of members</a> chose to vote in elections as the organization <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-mec-debacle-is-a-predictable-and-avoidable-governance-failure-146513">deprioritized member participation</a> in favour of business objectives. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the University of Toronto Students’ Union, representing <a href="https://www.utsu.ca/">over 41,000 members</a>, has <a href="https://thevarsity.ca/2019/11/10/participation-in-student-government-elections-at-u-of-t-among-lowest-in-canada/">struggled with voter turnout</a>, unfilled elected positions and achieving quorum — the minimum threshold of participation for valid decisions — at its general meetings.</p>
<p>Rethinking how these organizations involve members is essential to sustaining their democratic credentials. Our research suggests that participatory processes called deliberative mini-publics can be a key part of the solution.</p>
<h2>Challenges with achieving democracy</h2>
<p>Democratic member-based organizations commonly <a href="https://utorontopress.com/9781487520335/understanding-the-social-economy/">structure their democracy</a> around two core bodies: an elected board of directors and general assemblies open to the entire membership. On paper, each of these bodies has <a href="https://management-aims.com/index.php/mgmt/article/view/8478">significant responsibilities</a>. </p>
<p>General assemblies’ responsibilities often include holding the board accountable, discussing shared concerns and proposing and agreeing on resolutions. Those of the board of directors often include overseeing the organization’s management, preparing items for consideration at the general assembly and implementing approved decisions.</p>
<p>The problems encountered with this structure at Mountain Equipment Co-Op and the University of Toronto Students’ Union, however, are not aberrations. Our research across <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2022.2111551">student unions</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-017-3526-2">labour unions</a> and <a href="https://management-aims.com/index.php/mgmt/article/view/8478">co-operatives</a> suggest they are widespread in democratic organizations.</p>
<p>With co-operatives, for example, boards of directors often fail to mirror the diversity of the broader membership and sometimes make decisions that do not reflect members’ interests. </p>
<p>At a typical general assembly, only a small and often unrepresentative subset of the membership will likely be present. Those attending may find few genuine opportunities to learn from and discuss issues with others. This, in turn, can lead to decisions that are poorly informed or overly influenced by the board of directors or management.</p>
<h2>Mini-publics as a promising solution</h2>
<p>Our research on these different types of democratic member-based organizations has explored how the thoughtful use of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/680078">deliberative mini-publics</a> could help them improve their internal democracy. </p>
<p>A mini-public brings together a microcosm of a particular population — selected through a <a href="https://participedia.net/method/154">democratic lottery</a> — to learn and deliberate about one or more topics in a supported environment. The outputs of these deliberations can offer direction to decision-makers and other stakeholders.</p>
<p>Take one example we were both involved in: in 2021, the School of Law at Queen Mary University of London convened the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-law-in-context/article/deliberative-experience-and-the-civic-aspirations-of-legal-education/FF6F4A513908F8C82A0D4A3D670AFF5C">Students’ Jury on Pandemic Learning</a>. Twelve students were selected through a stratified lottery that accounted for self-identified characteristics like gender, fee status and race.</p>
<p>Through five intensive sessions, these students engaged with subject matter experts and interested parties, and participated in facilitated discussions. These efforts culminated in <a href="https://www.qmul.ac.uk/law/media/law/docs/undergrad/QM-Students'-Jury-Final-Report---March-2021.pdf">13 recommendations</a> that were collectively ratified and shared with the school’s leadership.</p>
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<img alt="A diverse group of people sitting around a table and having a conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572942/original/file-20240201-17-z1kxnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572942/original/file-20240201-17-z1kxnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572942/original/file-20240201-17-z1kxnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572942/original/file-20240201-17-z1kxnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572942/original/file-20240201-17-z1kxnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572942/original/file-20240201-17-z1kxnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572942/original/file-20240201-17-z1kxnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A mini-public brings together a microcosm of a particular population to learn about key topics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Initiatives like this can go a long way towards <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2022.2111551">overcoming a number of democratic member-based organizations’ challenges</a>. Compared to self-selected general assemblies and elected boards of directors, mini-publics’ use of lotteries engages significantly more diverse groups of participants. </p>
<p>Access to expert insights and stakeholders’ lived experience helps ensure that a wide range of relevant perspectives are brought to participants’ discussions and decisions. Facilitators help ensure that participants’ discussions are inclusive and on point. </p>
<p>As a result, their judgements are more likely to be well reasoned, thoughtful and balanced. Participants can also <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-law-in-context/article/deliberative-experience-and-the-civic-aspirations-of-legal-education/FF6F4A513908F8C82A0D4A3D670AFF5C">emerge with new skills</a>, confidence and a heightened desire to contribute to the organization in other ways.</p>
<h2>Making use of mini-publics</h2>
<p>While mini-publics have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-020-00284-9">capitalized on by governments</a> around the world, their potential has typically been <a href="https://futuregovernance.info/">overlooked by member-based organizations</a>. Yet there are <a href="https://management-aims.com/index.php/mgmt/article/view/8478">many ways these organizations could use them</a> to complement their existing board of directors and general assembly.</p>
<p>First, mini-publics could be used to evaluate specific resolutions regarding strategic plans, financial and sustainability reports and nominees for the board of directors. Their conclusions would be shared with the broader membership to inform their votes at general assemblies. </p>
<p>Second, they could be used to assess the board’s performance and offer feedback to ensure decisions are responsive to the needs of the membership. </p>
<p>Third, mini-publics could be used to unearth shared concerns on topics that have not yet received enough attention by the board of directors, such as the implications of artificial intelligence for their activities.</p>
<p>Whether in these ways or others, mini-publics can help revitalize the democracy in democratic member-based organizations. In doing so, they can help realize the aspirations that drive people all over the world to join these organizations in the first place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220529/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Pek's contributions to the research projects referred to in this article are partially funded through his President's Chair award. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey Kennedy was formerly at Queen Mary, University of London's School of Law as a Senior Lecturer, with relevant work there funded by internal grants, including the QM Impact Fund Award and Westfield Fund for Enhancing the Student Experience Grant. </span></em></p>Mini-publics, a type of participatory process, can help revitalize democracy in democratic member-based organizations.Simon Pek, Associate Professor of Business and Society, Gustavson School of Business, University of VictoriaJeffrey Kennedy, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1363822020-04-15T20:49:04Z2020-04-15T20:49:04ZSanders exit opened door for Obama to endorse Biden – and offer up his rhetorical skills<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328165/original/file-20200415-153341-b71jc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3609%2C2205&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Three years after his farewell address, Obama is embracing party politics again. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/on-tuesday-january-10-u-s-president-barack-obama-and-vp-joe-news-photo/631551612?adppopup=true">Cheriss May/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The three endorsements Joe Biden needed most came within the space of 48 hours.</p>
<p>First, Bernie Sanders <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?471177-1/senator-bernie-sanders-endorses-joe-biden-president">backed his former Democratic rival</a> for president on April 13, effectively ending the Democratic primary. The emergence of a consensus candidate appeared to liberate former president Barack Obama, who a day later reentered American politics proper, after dedicating three years to staying largely below the political radar.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?471214-1/president-obama-endorses-joe-bidens-presidential-bid">a 12-minute YouTube video</a>, Obama declared he was “proud to endorse Joe Biden” adding, “I believe Joe has the qualities we need in a president.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren followed suit <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-endorse-biden.html">on April 15</a>, pledging her own support to Biden.</p>
<p>The emergence of a consensus candidate – reportedly after Obama <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/us/politics/obama-biden-democratic-primary.html">held a series of conversations with Sanders</a> – allowed the former president to unshackle Biden from the expectation that he had to defend all things Obama. The former president also used the opportunity to unleash a frontal attack on President Trump’s competence. In so doing, Obama demonstrated his usual command of rhetoric, a topic I have studied extensively as <a href="https://uoregon.academia.edu/DavidFrank">a scholar of political communication</a>. </p>
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<p>Obama had reportedly told friends and candidates that he wouldn’t <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/18/us/politics/obama-2020-democratic-candidates.html">endorse anyone</a> until the voters had made their choice known.</p>
<p>Sanders’ backing of Biden made the former vice president the presumptive Democratic candidate for the 2020 election. Obama’s endorsement address built on Sanders’ celebration of Biden’s decency and competence. Biden, Obama observed, would provide the country with the leadership needed to manage the pandemic. </p>
<p>Obama then gave Biden his blessing to move away from the policies and platforms of their shared past. “If I were running today,” Obama declared, “I would not run the same race or have the same platform as I did in 2008. The world is different. There is too much unfinished business for us to look backwards.” </p>
<h2>Left a bit</h2>
<p>By freeing Biden from defending Obama-era policies, the former president may have laid the groundwork for aligning Sanders’ and Biden’s vision and policies. </p>
<p>In his endorsement, Obama observed that both men understood the need to “look to the future.” Obama declared Biden’s policy platform “is the most progressive platform of any major party nominee in history.” </p>
<p>And Obama borrowed a catch phrase from Warren, saying the country needs “real structural change.” </p>
<p>By attacking the Trump administration’s record, Obama established a blueprint for the Biden campaign. </p>
<p>Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign personalized the election, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0002764217707623?casa_token=4rEqOGicY9QAAAAA%3Aix3yW5A0Jyu_uesc21S-m3pPiTyIsx2dv-XEDqfBfs0En8PsSpfbbIUUCI8bC5occ-xwqWxl8Qes">targeting Donald Trump by name</a>. </p>
<p>In his endorsement, Obama resisted the temptation to make Trump and his personality the focus. Trump is unnamed in the address – but his policies and competence get plenty of mention. Obama claimed that his successor’s tax cuts for the wealthy have worsened inequality. He also took a swipe at what he characterizes as Trump’s unleashing of polluters and disregard for basic norms, the rule of law, facts and science.</p>
<p>In contrast, Obama said, Biden would restore the qualities of dignity and competence to presidency. “I know he will surround himself with good people. Experts, scientists, military officials who actually know how to run the government and care about doing a good job running the government, and know how to work with our allies, and who will always put the American people’s interest about their own,” Obama said. </p>
<h2>Speak freely</h2>
<p>The Trump campaign is well-funded and prepared for such attacks. Even with Obama’s help, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2020/04/12/the-trailer-the-general-election-has-started-here-s-where-things-stand/5e922d3a602ff10d49ae2d67/">unseating Trump will be difficult</a>. </p>
<p>Trump is chronically underestimated as a speaker. He is strikingly effective in his favorite venue: the Trump rally. Even with Obama’s move to embrace the Democratic left in his endorsement address, there is no guarantee that Sanders supporters will enthusiastically embrace Biden. And, in the main, Biden remains an uneven speaker – <a href="https://www.salon.com/2020/03/10/the-scripted-speeches-that-turned-joe--bidens-campaign-around_partner/">prone to verbal excess and lack of precision</a>. Yet, Biden has, on occasion, demonstrated that he can effectively deliver a well-written speech. He did so in his South Carolina primary victory address, offering a compelling story of purpose and unity necessary for coalition politics. Biden’s life is marred with deep tragedy, which has given him the gift of empathy, a genuine quality that shines through. </p>
<p>Regardless, Biden does not possess Obama’s rhetorical skill and will need him on the campaign trail. Obama’s history of rhetorical success is remarkable. His <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWynt87PaJ0">2004 Democratic National Convention Address</a>, <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?204469-1/obama-campaign-speech-race">2008’s “More Perfect Union” speech</a> and his <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4542312/user-clip-obama-full-eulogy-speech">2015 Charleston gun eulogy address</a> stand out as <a href="https://uoregon.academia.edu/DavidFrank">exceptional examples</a>. The qualities that made these speeches remarkable are also present in his endorsement of Biden. He is now liberated to put his powers of rhetoric in service to the Biden campaign. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David A. Frank does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In his endorsement of Biden, Obama gave his consent for his former running mate to go beyond the policy platform they built. It also freed Obama to use his rhetorical powers in the upcoming election.David A. Frank, Professor of Rhetoric, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1342842020-04-08T17:09:21Z2020-04-08T17:09:21ZBernie drops out, as Democrats pick pragmatism over consistency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326606/original/file-20200408-156807-1op7ix7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C0%2C4803%2C3202&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Closing the door on another presidential run.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Virus-Outbreak-Congress/9dcd36f198a84332a83d43064583e0f9/11/0">Patrick Semansky/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In many ways, Bernie Sanders is the anti-Trump. And, in important ways, he ran his campaign as the anti-Biden.</p>
<p>Sanders <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/us/politics/bernie-sanders-drops-out.html">bowed out of the Democratic nomination race on April 8</a>, repeating his <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/11/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders/index.html">runner-up status from four years earlier</a>. His two runs at the White House have cemented his legacy as a consistent standard-bearer for progressive policies. </p>
<p>The veteran democratic socialist possessed a rare quality for a political candidate in this age of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/president-trumps-first-100-days/here-are-new-policy-stances-donald-trump-has-taken-election-n684946">Trumpian fickleness</a>. He is a politician whose actions and beliefs have remained steadfast over time and across campaigns. </p>
<p>But in the current political moment, it appears the Democratic electorate longs less for a politician who is consistent from day to day than one who can provide pragmatic leadership to unseat the vacillating Trump.</p>
<h2>Same ol’ Sanders</h2>
<p>Sanders ran his campaign as the antithesis of a political showman, who says one thing today and another tomorrow with little regard for facts and consistency. He has exhibited throughout his career what anthropologist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047404506060222">Alessandro Duranti</a> calls “existential coherence” – he is a political figure “whose past, present, and future actions, beliefs, and evaluations follow some clear basic principles, none of which contradicts another.” </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/linguistics/adam-hodges">linguistic anthropologist who studies language and politics</a>, I know that traditionally, candidates have worried about how to project a consistent political persona, and they have often gone to great pains to do so. But Trump shattered that expectation, excelling in self-contradictions and inconsistencies – often within a single sitting.</p>
<p>Sanders, instead, has put forth a consistent vision that has remained more or less the same since his early days in politics as <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/bernies-burlington-city-sustainable-future/">mayor of Burlington, Vermont</a>. Rather than moving toward the electorate and shifting positions based on perceptions of what the electorate desired, the electorate has moved toward Sanders to join his vision for universal health care and other progressive causes. A <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/majority-of-americans-support-progressive-policies-such-as-paid-maternity-leave-free-college.html">CNBC survey</a> in 2019 found that a majority of Americans supported progressive policies, including a higher minimum wage and Medicare for All – key issues that Sanders has been advocating throughout his decades-long political career. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://youtu.be/-oxfzabpTWY">an episode</a> of Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” last year, host Trevor Noah unearthed footage from 1987 of Sanders discussing politics on a local public access channel in his hometown of Burlington. The Bernie Sanders of 1987 talked of the unfair tax system that placed a large burden on working people and the need for universal health care. </p>
<p>“We are one of two nations in the industrialized world that does not have a national health care system,” declared Sanders in 1987. </p>
<p>Three decades later, in both his 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns, Sanders continued with that theme. In 2016, he released his Medicare for All plan by <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-health-plan-217906">declaring</a>, “It is time for our country to join every other major industrialized nation on Earth and guarantee health care to all citizens as a right, not a privilege.” His <a href="https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/">2020 campaign website</a> further echoed this sentiment, stating that “the United States will join every other major country on Earth and guarantee health care to all people as a right.” </p>
<p>A consistent candidate often comes across as a more authentic candidate – someone who is staying true to his core self rather than pandering to the latest polling data or saying whatever will attract the most dramatic news coverage. Sanders’ authenticity as a candidate who has fought for working people and progressive ideals his entire life made him appealing to many liberals. He attracted an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-sanders/how-bernie-sanders-passionate-base-revitalized-his-campaign-idUSKBN2030CL">unshakable following of core supporters</a> because of it. </p>
<h2>‘Results, not revolution’</h2>
<p>Biden’s pragmatic approach, however, trumped Sanders’ often dogmatic consistency. In their debates, Sanders hammered Biden over what he saw as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/us/politics/joe-biden-social-security.html">shifting stances on Social Security</a>, Medicare and veterans’ programs. And then there was Biden’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/10/15/20849072/joe-biden-iraq-history-democrats-election-2020">2003 vote for the Iraq war before he turned against it</a>.</p>
<p>But this is not the 2004 presidential election, where accusations of flip-flopping can sink a candidate, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kerrys-top-ten-flip-flops/">like it did John Kerry in his race against George W. Bush</a>. Perhaps Donald Trump’s fickleness has changed what voters look for in a candidate. Maybe it’s simply that nobody cares about Biden’s apparent lack of judgment in 2003, which occurred well before he <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/17/biden-plays-the-obama-card-100520">spent eight years as vice president in arguably one of the most popular Democratic administrations</a> in U.S. history.</p>
<p>Biden easily parried Sanders’ accusations of inconsistency by pointing to an underlying consistency of principles that have guided his varying positions over time. Voters ultimately decided to support someone who exhibits a practical sense of how to govern in a way that gets things done. As Biden <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/03/results-or-a-revolution-biden-and-sanders-debate-the-coronavirus/">said in his last debate with Sanders</a>, “People are looking for results, not revolution.”</p>
<p>On health care, one might have expected Sanders to have an advantage with his Medicare for All proposal, a consistent theme across his time as mayor, congressman, senator and presidential candidate. Polling done by the <a href="https://www.kff.org/slideshow/public-opinion-on-single-payer-national-health-plans-and-expanding-access-to-medicare-coverage/">Kaiser Family Foundation</a> found that for the first time a majority of Americans began to support a single government plan for health care in 2016, corresponding to the Sanders campaign push for Medicare for All.</p>
<p>But in the same Kaiser poll, more Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they would prefer a candidate who would build on the Affordable Care Act rather than replace it. Biden’s campaign argued precisely for this more pragmatic approach, and he positioned himself as the right person to get the job done in a contentious political environment.</p>
<h2>An overture</h2>
<p>After <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/politics/biden-florida-illinois-primary.html">sweeping the primaries in Florida, Illinois and Arizona</a> in March – putting the wheels in motion for the eventual withdrawal of Sanders from the race – Biden then struck the right chord in his speech after the Florida primary by <a href="https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/joe-biden-appeals-to-bernie-sanders-supporters-after-fl-il-wins-i-hear-you-i-know-whats-at-stake/">making an appeal to Sanders voters</a>. </p>
<p>“I hear you,” he said. “I know what’s at stake. I know what we have to do. Our goal as a campaign and my goal as a candidate for president is to unify this party and then to unify the nation.” </p>
<p>Biden’s appeal to Sanders voters suggests he may be willing to absorb some of the best ideas from Sanders – and other candidates. It’s a pragmatic approach, rather than a dogmatic consistency, that may bring along their supporters, too. </p>
<p>That may be exactly what he will need to do to beat Trump in November.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Hodges does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bernie Sanders is the antithesis of a political showman who says one thing today, another tomorrow. Perhaps, in the end, that was his undoing.Adam Hodges, Adjunct Assistant Professor of Linguistics, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1334782020-03-11T18:14:10Z2020-03-11T18:14:10ZBiden’s win shows the power of Democratic moderates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319904/original/file-20200311-116240-15uq64l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Joe and Jill Biden address the press the evening of the Idaho, Missouri, Michigan, Washington, Mississippi and North Dakota primaries.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Joe-Biden/34387e81c9074d8cbe71805079642649/33/0">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Super Tuesday II marked <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/March_10_presidential_primaries,_2020">Democratic primary elections</a> in six states: Idaho, Missouri, Michigan, Washington, Mississippi and North Dakota.</p>
<p>The candidates entered the races on level fields, with Biden enjoying a slight delegate edge over Sanders. Biden’s lead is now decisive, and there is a <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/">high probability</a> he will emerge as the Democratic nominee.</p>
<p>Despite his victory, Biden continues to struggle with young voters. He faces difficulties in appealing to the most ideologically extreme wing of the party, which also tends to be younger. Sanders would have required <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152538/bernie-sanders-electability-president-moderates-data">unprecedented youth turnout to beat Trump</a> in November. By some estimates, youth turnout would need to increase some 30 percentage points over 2016. </p>
<p>Still, youth turnout in the general election has historically slightly exceeded 40 percentage points. Biden will need to appeal to this demographic, if he is to stay competitive against Trump. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-michigan-march-10-primary/">Exit polling in Michigan</a> further clarified the ideological lane the party is likely to occupy this fall. It is becoming clear the party will adopt a center-left agenda. </p>
<p>The 2020 Democratic primaries are frequently cast as referenda on ideological extremism versus moderation.</p>
<p>“I was told at the beginning of this whole undertaking that there are two lanes, a progressive lane that Bernie Sanders is the incumbent for and a moderate lane that Joe Biden is the incumbent for, and there’s no room for anyone else in this,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/05/warrens-right-she-was-stuck-lane-couldnt-pass-sanders/">Elizabeth Warren told the Washington Post</a>. “I thought that wasn’t right, but evidently it was.”</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319878/original/file-20200311-168563-ei8739.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter fills in a ballot at the the Summit View Church of the Nazarene in Kansas City, Missouri.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Voting-Virus-Outbreak/7a9ebcbbc7d94741b95aaa51371ff2ab/2/0">AP Photo/Charlie Riedel</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sanders enjoyed a 34 percentage point edge among strong liberals. Biden enjoyed an almost equal lead among moderates and conservatives. But even more revealing was Biden’s 18 percentage point lead in Michigan or all over in Michigan among people who described themselves as “somewhat liberal.”</p>
<p>In the Michigan <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-michigan-march-10-primary/">exit poll</a>, 40% described themselves as “somewhat liberal,” also known as center-left voters. The fact that Biden is drawing strong support from center-left voters is important for a simple reason: They constitute a large share of the Democratic coalition. </p>
<p>Data from the <a href="https://www.voterstudygroup.org/">2016 Democracy Fund’s Voter’s Study</a> survey reveals a similar dynamic. At 27%, center-left is the second most popular choice among Democrats, behind “moderate or conservative.”</p>
<p>Thirty-three percent of non-Hispanic white Democrats describe themselves as somewhat liberal. Among African American Democratic identifiers, 34% identify as somewhat liberal, and so do 33% of Latinx Democrats. </p>
<p>Biden’s lead among this group shows he is making clear inroads with a large share of the party.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Weber does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is becoming clear that this election season, the Democratic Party will likely adopt a center-left agenda.Chris Weber, Associate Professor in the School of Government and Public Policy, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1327292020-03-10T12:12:38Z2020-03-10T12:12:38ZBlack turnout in primaries might make Democrats think twice about swing voter strategy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319152/original/file-20200306-118890-1dwdhns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C77%2C7326%2C4781&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters fill out Super Tuesday ballots in North Carolina.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-fill-out-ballots-while-voting-in-super-tuesday-news-photo/1204950351?adppopup=true">Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Big wins for Joe Biden on <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-super-tuesday-joe-biden-is-a-clear-favorite-to-win-the-nomination/">Super Tuesday</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/03/01/810813892/4-takeaways-from-joe-bidens-big-win-in-south-carolina">in the South Carolina primary</a> a few days earlier have seemingly bolstered a centrist view of how best to capture the presidency: appeal to the middle, pick up swing voters.</p>
<p>It is true that a <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/late-support-lifts-biden-sanders-base-takeaways-super/story?id=69381829">sizeable chunk of moderates</a> cast a ballot for Biden over his main rival, the more radical Bernie Sanders, in these contests. </p>
<p>But a closer look at how the vote broke down suggests a different interpretation: Biden’s surge may be less about moderates and more about getting out the anti-Trump vote. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.sc.edu/study/colleges_schools/artsandsciences/political_science/our_people/directory/shaw_todd.php">political scientist</a> who teaches in South Carolina and studies African American politics, I believe that understanding what drove the outcome of these early primaries may be key to creating a successful Democratic strategy to beat Donald Trump.</p>
<h2>The Biden bounce</h2>
<p>One clear takeaway from the recent primaries is that African American voters are indispensable to Biden – or any other Democrat who wants to win the presidency. </p>
<p>In the South Carolina primary, Biden enjoyed a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/03/03/805598996/south-carolina-state-election-results-2020">29-point victory</a> over Sanders. This was due in large part to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-south-carolina-primary/">61% of South Carolina’s black voters swinging behind Biden</a> – a weight of support no doubt helped by an endorsement by the state’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/politics/jim-clyburn-endorses-joe-biden/index.html">influential black U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn</a>. In fact, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/1/21160030/biden-black-vote-south-carolina-results">black voters cast nearly 60% of all votes</a> in that contest.</p>
<p>This support carried through into Super Tuesday. In Alabama, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/04/black-voters-biden-sanders-latinos-120952">72% of black voters supported Biden</a>, representing nearly half of Democrats posting a ballot in that state.</p>
<p>Overall, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-super-tuesday-primary/">Biden received a median of 58% of the black vote across the 14 Super Tuesday state primaries</a>, compared to just 35% of the median white vote. Biden needs black voters so much, he has <a href="https://www.commentarymagazine.com/christine-rosen/joe-biden-stacey-abrams-corruption-scandal/">hinted at selecting a black running mate</a> – possibly Sen. Kamala Harris or 2018 Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-stacey-abrams-black-girl-magic-turned-georgia-a-bit-more-blue-97117">Stacey Abrams</a>.</p>
<h2>Growing the tent</h2>
<p>This direct courting and mobilization of the black vote stands in contrast to an “expansion election” strategy touted by some Biden supporters. </p>
<p>An expansion strategy – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-series-of-strategic-mistakes-likely-sealed-clintons-fate/2016/11/11/82f3fcc0-a840-11e6-ba59-a7d93165c6d4_story.html">similar to what Hillary Clinton’s campaign tried in 2016 without success</a> – seeks to appeal to moderate Republicans and independents while still inspiring high turnout among the party’s traditional base. At a campaign rally on the eve of the Texas primary, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, speaking in <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/sen-klobuchar-on-her-emotional-decision-to-suspend-campaign-and-endorse-biden-80036421699">support of Biden</a>, stated that as he could mobilize a broad anti-Trump coalition.</p>
<p>Klobuchar said it would include not only a “fired-up Democratic base” of African Americans and other minorities, but “<a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/election-2020/ct-nw-amy-klobuchar-dropping-out-of-democratic-race-20200302-vzwhub5p7jdivocx4fnf3w6r2i-story.html">independents and moderate Republicans</a>” as well.</p>
<p>At the heart of this strategy is the belief that there are sufficient numbers of crossover voters who can be persuaded to switch party. Political scientists call this the “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/05/29/the-end-of-the-median-voter-theorem-in-presidential-politics/">median voter” theory</a>: Candidates have a better chance of winning a general election if they tack to the center and capture a wider electorate rather than focus on their own partisans. Exit polls from Super Tuesday provided mixed support. They revealed that Sanders got a third of all independent votes – 8 points more than Biden, but that Biden beat Sanders among self-identified moderates and conservatives <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-super-tuesday-primary/">by a margin of 30 points</a>.</p>
<h2>Come out not swinging</h2>
<p>Therefore, political scientist <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944">Rachel Bitecofer</a> has argued that this swing voter strategy is deeply flawed at a time when the electorate is so polarized.</p>
<p>Borrowing from the “negative partisanship” theory of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pops.12479">Alan Abramowitz and others</a> – which suggests that voters are motivated by which party they are against rather than who they are for – Bitecofer’s models assume there is really no such thing as a swing voter in the modern American electorate. This is especially true given how race or racial differences inform both party allegiances and party policy.</p>
<p>In all but two elections since 1972, a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html">majority of white people have voted for the Republican presidential candidate</a> – <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/">almost 60% in the last two elections</a>. During the same period, increasing majorities of black constituents and other voters of color have voted for the Democratic presidential candidates.</p>
<p>Party affiliation is similarly <a href="https://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/">split among racial lines</a>, with white people increasingly aligned with Republicanism, Latino and especially black voters with Democrats. As American voters becomes <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pops.12479">increasingly non-white</a> – from about 11% in 1976 to 28% in 2016, according to national exit poll data – implicit and explicit racial resentments among white people against such demographic change has helped fuel the deep philosophical and cultural divides now represented by the main parties. </p>
<p>Bitecofer argues that levels of negative partisanship and the size of turnout are the best predictors of an election outcome. And the accuracy of some of her recent projections have others taking note. In <a href="https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/">July of 2018</a>, she was almost spot-on in her <a href="https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2018/09/26-signs-democrats-win-big/">forecast of the number of House seats Democrats would take in the midterm elections</a> – she was off by only one seat.</p>
<p>Bitecofer has already predicted that Democrats are <a href="https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/">likely to win</a> the 2020 presidential election, because black and other Democratic-leaning voters will be so heavily mobilized against Trump.</p>
<h2>Swing or soul?</h2>
<p>The size of the black turnout in Super Tuesday and South Carolina supports that forecast. Exit polls indicated that one of the main reasons black and other primary voters tilted toward Biden in the end was his perceived ability to unseat Trump – an example of negative partisanship.</p>
<p>Some Democratic Party insiders may already be sold on the strategy. Stacey Abrams has argued that Democratic nominee needs to get out the vote of people aligned against Trump rather than chase elusive swing votes. In a late night interview with Seth Meyers, the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTk_6ur6RV8">rising Democrat star said</a>: “We should be trying to convince people who share our values to live those values. … We should not be compromising our values to convince them (Trump voters) that they want to come to us.” </p>
<p>All sides agree that defeating Donald Trump is foremost in the minds of Democratic voters. The debate is whether trying to win over a supposed supply of swing voters will risk losing the party’s “soul” – its base.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132729/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>African American voters are indispensable to any Democrat strategy. Given party affiliation is increasingly split down racial lines, is the best tactic to get out the black, anti-Trump vote?Todd Shaw, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1326472020-03-09T14:14:23Z2020-03-09T14:14:23ZThe candidate you like is the one you think is most electable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318971/original/file-20200305-106610-1sx8tq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most people vote for the candidate they think is the most electable.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/just-off-the-beach-californians-vote-using-new-touch-screen-news-photo/1205262494?adppopup=true">Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electability has been the single most important force motivating voters in the 2020 Democratic primaries. </p>
<p>But what is it? What makes one candidate seem like they could get votes from a majority of Americans while another one couldn’t? </p>
<p>Objectively, <a href="https://polisci.indiana.edu/about/faculty/hershey-marjorie.html">political scientists like myself</a> have done a lot of research on what types of candidates win and lose. We find that moderate candidates tend to win more often than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000023">far-left or far-right candidates</a> do. Despite the widespread assumption that women are less electable than men, research shows that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/05_women_lawless_fox.pdf">women candidates are at least as likely to succeed as men</a> are. That was true in 2018, and it’s especially likely when an election year is dominated by scandal, because <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/09/20/2-views-on-leadership-traits-and-competencies-and-how-they-intersect-with-gender/">women are stereotypically viewed</a> as more honest than men. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318972/original/file-20200305-106568-1dqea25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Women are stereotypically viewed as more honest than men. Pictured here, an Amy Klobuchar supporter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-wears-various-political-pins-during-democratic-news-photo/1205632339?adppopup=true">Getty/Scott Eisen</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In legislatures, incumbents probably have a better chance of getting caught at inappropriate texting than they are of losing reelection. And we know that when incumbents do lose, it’s because their challengers <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781538123416/The-Politics-of-Congressional-Elections-Tenth-Edition">surpassed the fundraising threshold</a> that could match the incumbent’s advantages in media coverage, name recognition, and other factors, no matter how much the incumbent spent. </p>
<p>But journalists and their audiences don’t usually pay attention to political science research when they ask about electability. </p>
<h2>Looking at polls, money and mirrors</h2>
<p>In their search to identify the most electable candidate, journalists and their readers look at polls which, early in a campaign, often say more about a candidate’s name recognition than his or her public support. They look at fundraising numbers. The biggest fundraiser doesn’t always win – ask President Bloomberg – but money is one indicator of public support.</p>
<p>And journalists and readers listen to themselves. Many people are convinced that regardless of these indicators, the candidate they like better – or dislike least – will win the election. That was true of many Hillary Clinton supporters in 2016, who simply couldn’t accept that Donald Trump could become president. </p>
<p>It is bolstered by “confirmation bias” – the tendency to seek out and remember bits of information <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00214.x">that confirm your existing opinions</a>. This tendency is nothing new. </p>
<p>In 1964, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1953052">supporters of conservative Republican presidential candidate Barry Goldwater</a> believed that their man was destined to win, because an invisible – except to them – conservative majority would emerge on Election Day. Goldwater lost in a landslide.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318974/original/file-20200305-106610-1ta358j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">GOP presidential candidate Barry Goldwater’s supporters thought he’d win when an invisible army of conservatives would emerge on Election Day. They didn’t.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/barry-goldwater-supporters-holding-a-sign-at-the-republican-news-photo/641760092?adppopup=true">Mickey Senko/CQ Roll Call via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A similar tendency is seen today in many Sanders enthusiasts. They picture an army of leftists who refuse to vote currently because they are disgusted with corporate influence over American life, including overly conservative Democratic candidates. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152538/bernie-sanders-electability-president-moderates-data?">Sanders fans believe</a> that many of these nonvoters will step up to the polls once they see Sanders’ commitment to genuinely progressive values.</p>
<h2>Wishful thinking</h2>
<p>The problem with this kind of thinking about electability is the evidence – the lack of it. </p>
<p><a href="https://the100million.org/">A large recent survey</a> showed that nonvoters don’t differ much from voters, other than in their lack of engagement with politics. </p>
<p>“Nonvoters are also far less progressive than is commonly believed,” <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/truth-about-non-voters/607051/">wrote Yascha Mounk in The Atlantic</a>. “A clear majority of them consider themselves either moderate or conservative; only one in five say that they are liberal.” </p>
<p>Democrats often hope that <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Party-Politics-in-America-17th-Edition/Hershey/p/book/9781138683686">young people, who lean Democratic</a>, will finally overcome their habit of nonvoting. But even in <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/change-and-continuity-in-the-2016-and-2018-elections/oclc/1085592473">the high-turnout midterm elections of 2018</a>, people under 30 voted at much lower rates than people over 65. In the recent Texas Democratic primary, Sanders won most Latino American voters under 30, but older Latino Americans, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/03/04/811942583/who-different-groups-supported-on-super-tuesday">who favored Biden, turned out in larger numbers</a>.</p>
<h2>Primary vs. general election</h2>
<p>Who, then, is an electable candidate? </p>
<p>First, it’s a candidate whose advisers understand the rules of the election they’re competing in now. </p>
<p>For example: The Democratic Party has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/showdowns-at-political-conventions-are-rare-democrats-may-get-one/2020/02/14/d71d23fa-4e99-11ea-9b5c-eac5b16dafaa_story.html">outlawed winner-take-all nominating events</a>. Any candidate who wins at least 15% of the vote in a primary or caucus gets about the same percentage of delegates from that state as he or she did in the popular vote. </p>
<p>That means a candidate who is ahead in the delegate count midway through the nominating season will be hard to beat later. An opponent can’t catch up as easily by getting a huge infusion of delegates from a late state contest, because the front-runner will pick up a share of that state’s delegates as well; there is no 3-point shot in Democratic nomination politics.</p>
<p>But electability in Democratic primaries is not the same as electability in November. That will require beating Donald Trump, not Amy Klobuchar or Pete Buttigieg. </p>
<p>The Democrat who is most electable in the Indiana Democratic primary will <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/28/key-super-tuesday-may-be-state-youre-not-expecting/?arc404=true">not be the winner of Indiana’s electoral votes in November</a>, because the Indiana electorate in November will be dominated by Republicans.</p>
<p>Beating Trump will require <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/2018-voter-turnout-rose-dramatically-for-groups-favoring-democrats-census-confirms/">very high turnout among Democrats</a>, depressed turnout among Republicans, and enthusiasm among the fairly small group of swing voters who have managed to avoid the polarization of current American politics. </p>
<p>Voter turnout is most common among the <a href="https://www.rockthevote.org/wp-content/uploads/publications/research/rtv_voting_is_a_habit-2007.pdf">people who habitually vote</a>: the two parties’ existing voter bases. So an electable candidate is one who excites that party’s existing voter base but doesn’t rile up the opposing party’s base to an unusual degree. </p>
<p>For most primary voters, however, the most electable candidate is whichever candidate that voter favors. </p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132647/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marjorie Hershey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Why do some people think that Bernie Sanders isn’t electable and Joe Biden is? Does anyone really know what makes one candidate seem electable while another doesn’t?Marjorie Hershey, Professor Emeritus, Political Science, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1327542020-03-04T10:43:50Z2020-03-04T10:43:50ZBiden easily wins Super Tuesday after strong comeback in past few days<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318603/original/file-20200304-66052-1huogsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Etienne Laurent</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fourteen states held <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-super-tuesday-primary-election.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=Navigation">Democratic primaries</a> on Tuesday US time. Joe Biden is likely to win ten of those states, to four wins for Bernie Sanders. Biden crushed Sanders by 47 points in Alabama, 30 points in Virginia, 19 in North Carolina, 18 in Arkansas, 17 in Tennessee and 13 in Oklahoma.</p>
<p>Biden had surprise wins in Minnesota (nine points over Sanders) and Massachusetts. That is Elizabeth Warren’s home state, but she finished third, with Biden winning 33%, Sanders 27% and Warren just 22%. Biden won Texas by 4%, and is likely to win Maine.</p>
<p>Sanders won just three states: his home state of Vermont (by 29 points), Utah (by 17) and Colorado (by 13). Sanders is likely to win California, where he currently has a nine-point lead. Many more votes remain to be counted in California, Utah and Colorado, and these votes could assist Sanders. Particularly in California, later votes trend left.</p>
<p>A few days before Super Tuesday, it had looked so different. Even though Sanders had only about 30% of the national vote, that appeared enough for a large delegate plurality against a divided field. So how did Biden come back so strongly?</p>
<p>On Saturday, Joe Biden crushingly won the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/29/us/elections/results-south-carolina-primary-election.html">South Carolina primary</a> with 48.4%. Bernie Sanders was a distant second with 19.9%, followed by Tom Steyer at 11.3%, Pete Buttigieg 8.2%, Elizabeth Warren 7.1% and Amy Klobuchar just 3.2%. According to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/29/us/elections/results-south-carolina-primary-election.html">exit polls</a>, black voters made up 56% of the electorate, and voted for Biden by 61-17 over Sanders.</p>
<p>After disappointing results in two diverse states – Nevada and South Carolina – Buttigieg <a href="https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/01/buittigieg-will-quit-presidential-race/">ended his campaign</a> the next day. Buttigieg is the first candidate to leave while still <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">polling over 10% nationally</a>. On Monday, Klobuchar also withdrew, and she and Buttigieg <a href="https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/02/buttigieg-may-be-joining-klobuchar-at-biden-rally/">endorsed Biden</a> at a rally.</p>
<p>In the 2016 Democratic primaries, Sanders came unexpectedly close to Hillary Clinton. However, this was partly due to Clinton’s lack of appeal to lower-educated whites, something that Donald Trump exploited in the general election.</p>
<p>Once Klobuchar and Buttigieg withdrew, Biden was able to consolidate the vote of Clinton’s supporters: higher-educated whites and black voters. Biden has a stronger appeal to lower-educated whites than Clinton. So once moderates consolidated behind one candidate, that candidate was able to dominate.</p>
<p>After spending a huge amount of money on Super Tuesday ads, Mike Bloomberg bombed. He did not come close to winning a single state, finishing third or worse in all states contested.</p>
<p>According to the delegate count at <a href="http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D">The Green Papers</a>, Biden now leads Sanders by 497 to 395, with 65 for Bloomberg and 47 for Warren. Biden leads the overall popular vote by 35.1% to 27.3%. There are many more contests to come, <a href="http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/ccad.phtml">starting with six states</a> next Tuesday that account for 9% of delegates, but Biden is clearly in the box seat to win at least a plurality of all pledged delegates.</p>
<h2>Israel and Germany</h2>
<p>At Monday’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election#Preliminary_results">Israeli election</a>, right-wing parties won 58 of the 120 seats (up three since the September 2019 election) and left-wing parties 55 (down two). Netanyahu’s coalition will be three seats short of a majority. This election was the third in a year after no government could be formed following April and September 2019 elections.</p>
<p>On my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/german-political-crisis-in-thuringia-and-italian-regional-elections/">personal website</a>, I covered the February German political crisis in Thuringia, in which the far-right AfD and conservative CDU supported a small pro-business party’s leader to become state president. It is the first time that any German party has cooperated with the AfD to form government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the momentum had been with Bernie Sanders, the former vice president surged on Super Tuesday, and is favourite to win the Democratic nomination.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1323282020-03-01T13:11:16Z2020-03-01T13:11:16ZBernie Sanders: Making socialism cool again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317810/original/file-20200228-24701-13r15im.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5472%2C2187&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie speaks during a campaign event in Spartanburg, S.C., on Feb. 27, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Love him or hate him, Bernie Sanders has emerged as the indisputable front-runner for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.</p>
<p>Sanders has inspired a massive, energetic, hardworking and fiercely loyal following, determined to carry him to victory at the Democratic National Convention in July. </p>
<p>To the great agitation of his rivals and critics, Sanders has demonstrated a stunning popularity among a diverse cross-section of voters, <a href="https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/candidate/bernie-sanders/">including women</a>, <a href="https://theintercept.com/2020/02/22/latinos-bernie-sanders-nevada-caucus/">Latinos</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/black-voters-prefer-bernie-sanders-over-all-other-democratic-candidates-new-poll-shows-1489209">Blacks</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/why-muslim-voters-love-bernie-sanders-1489226">Muslims</a>, <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/bernie-sanders-nevada-caucus-culinary-union">union members</a> and especially <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/01/anyone-but-bernie-sanders-biden-age-gap-millennials-gen-z.html">young people</a>. </p>
<p>The oft-repeated trope of the white “Bernie bro” has proven to be <a href="https://www.salon.com/2020/02/09/the-berniebro-myth-persists-because-pundits-dont-understand-how-the-internet-works/">more myth</a> than reality. Sanders’ rapid and dramatic rise to front-runner status has sent his critics in the Democratic Party into a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/23/sanders-democratic-establishment-panic-mode-117065">full-blown panic</a>, revealing their inability to understand the current historical moment and the rhetorical power of the Sanders campaign.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317813/original/file-20200228-24690-ke6pxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317813/original/file-20200228-24690-ke6pxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317813/original/file-20200228-24690-ke6pxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317813/original/file-20200228-24690-ke6pxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317813/original/file-20200228-24690-ke6pxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317813/original/file-20200228-24690-ke6pxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317813/original/file-20200228-24690-ke6pxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317813/original/file-20200228-24690-ke6pxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Women, including young women of colour, are among those who have been energized by Sanders. Supporters are seen here in South Carolina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How, they wonder, has Sanders risen to the top of the field? What exactly is his appeal? </p>
<p>Why are young people, including <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/black-women-activists-dream-defenders-support-bernie-sanders">young women of colour</a>, going for the old white guy? </p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, why are so many Democratic voters <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx">warming to socialism</a>, long regarded as antithetical to the American way of life?</p>
<p>As he did in 2016, Sanders has exposed a deep rift in the Democratic Party between its centrist and progressive wings. </p>
<h2>The Third Way</h2>
<p>This rift is not so much an intra-family dispute as a longstanding rivalry between two distinct political traditions. The first of these traditions is the so-called <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/feb/10/labour.uk1">Third Way</a>, first described by British sociologist Anthony Giddens in the early 1990s. </p>
<p>The Third Way was conceived after the end of the Cold War as an alternative to the left and the right. Also known as the “radical centre,” the Third Way rejects both the robust government interventionism championed by the left and the intolerance and bigotry congenital to the right. </p>
<p>It pursues incremental change while vigorously upholding a capitalist order. <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/PPP-1999-book1/PPP-1999-book1-doc-pg631">Bill Clinton</a> was the first American president to put Third Way politics into practice. The Third Way has since become the reigning orthodoxy of the Democratic Party. Even Barack Obama, who campaigned on the lofty rhetoric of “hope and change,” governed as a resolute and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/10/us/politics/10assess.html">unapologetic centrist</a>, much <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Mendacity-Hope-Betrayal-American-Liberalism/dp/B0058M5IX4">to the disappointment</a> of his progressive base. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317815/original/file-20200228-24676-1ujutmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317815/original/file-20200228-24676-1ujutmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317815/original/file-20200228-24676-1ujutmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317815/original/file-20200228-24676-1ujutmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317815/original/file-20200228-24676-1ujutmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317815/original/file-20200228-24676-1ujutmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317815/original/file-20200228-24676-1ujutmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317815/original/file-20200228-24676-1ujutmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Warren is also at odds with the Third Way.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the exception of Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, the rest of the Democratic field falls squarely within the tradition of the Third Way.</p>
<p>While the Third Way proved to be a politically salient politics during the 1990s, it has since calcified into rigid and obstinate dogma. The longstanding habit of <a href="https://progressive.org/dispatches/why-politicians-from-both-parties-ignore-the-poor/">ignoring the poor</a>, <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/obama-pulls-clinton-deregulation/">siding with the rich and powerful</a> and pursuing only incremental change has run up against a brick wall of brute reality: <a href="https://www.history.com/news/second-gilded-age-income-inequality">Gilded Age</a>-levels of <a href="https://inequality.org/facts/income-inequality/">income inequality</a>, skyrocketing <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/10/americans-are-drowning-in-medical-debt-what-to-know-if-you-need-help.html">medical debt</a>, US$1.5 trillion in <a href="https://time.com/5662626/student-loans-repayment/">student loan debt</a>, a <a href="http://newjimcrow.com/">racist criminal justice system</a> and impending ecological collapse.</p>
<h2>‘Massive failure’</h2>
<p>Set against this stark empirical reality, incrementalism appears to far too many voters to be a massive failure. And the apologetic habit of dressing it up in the robes of pragmatic necessity has become a kind of secular theology: it demands faith in a better future that it can never deliver, a future lacking precise detail because it lacks a definable goal.</p>
<p>In the logic of the Third Way, incremental change becomes an end in itself: change for its own sake.</p>
<p>The problem with this delicate high-wire act — preaching incremental change in the face of exponentially worsening social and environmental crises — is that it has become impossible to pull off convincingly. Talk of incremental change doesn’t sound very promising or encouraging when the planet is on fire and climate scientists have given us a very short window to act.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-are-climate-change-skeptics-often-right-wing-conservatives-123549">Climate explained: Why are climate change skeptics often right-wing conservatives?</a>
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<p>By contrast, Sanders has been a lifelong advocate of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/opinion/sunday/what-socialism-looks-like-in-2018.html">democratic socialism</a>, a tradition whose core principle is that democracy should be expanded from politics into the workplace — the sphere of life in which we spend the bulk of our waking lives. </p>
<p>Democratic socialism goes beyond mere social democracy — beyond programs like universal health care and public pensions — by calling for a fundamental change in the relationship between executives and workers.</p>
<p>It holds that workers should also have decision-making power, including over how revenue is distributed and how they get paid. </p>
<h2>Deep, structural change</h2>
<p>Democratic socialists want the workplace to be structured democratically, not like little North Koreas, in which CEOs <a href="https://www.inc.com/business-insider/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-leadership-management-style-work-culture.html">rule like tyrants</a>. Socialists see capitalist exploitation of people and the planet as the root of injustice. Hence, they advocate not incremental, but deep, structural change.</p>
<p>The reason Sanders has been so politically appealing to a diverse coalition of voters is because he offers a powerful explanatory key for making sense of America’s crisis moment. </p>
<p>He indicts not just specific people, like Donald Trump, Michael Bloomberg and Jeff Bezos, but the system: The political economic structure in which the super-rich have amassed extraordinary sums of wealth at the expense of everyone else, and our shared planet.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317819/original/file-20200228-24664-10voko4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317819/original/file-20200228-24664-10voko4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317819/original/file-20200228-24664-10voko4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317819/original/file-20200228-24664-10voko4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317819/original/file-20200228-24664-10voko4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317819/original/file-20200228-24664-10voko4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317819/original/file-20200228-24664-10voko4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sanders is seen speaking to an overflow crowd at a Super Bowl watch party campaign event on Feb. 2, 2020, in Des Moines, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/John Locher</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sanders’s rhetorical genius is to have linked different types of injustice, like income inequality, racial inequality, gender inequality, and environmental breakdown, through a single frame: corporate greed. </p>
<p>This enables voters to see injustice in big-picture terms. Sanders has equipped his base with a revolutionary political vocabulary for expressing their sense of injustice, as well as a language of shared struggle against a structure that thrives on exploitation. Solidarity, it turns out, is incredibly empowering.</p>
<h2>Rise of a new politics</h2>
<p>Third Way Democrats have scrambled to understand the Sanders revolution. </p>
<p>They’ve dismissed him as an old man yelling at the clouds and a snake-oil salesman offering the false promise of “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/24/us/politics/ap-us-election-2020.html">free stuff</a>.” Worse, they have been forced to perform the awkward dance of <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/482141-buttigieg-after-debate-i-would-be-most-progressive-nominee-in-partys">claiming the mantle of progressivism</a> while <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/medicare-for-all-winner-sanders-nevada-new-hampshire-iowa-polls-2020-2">disavowing popular progressive proposals</a> and “<a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/2/26/21154121/buttigieg-democratic-debate-revolutionary">revolution politics</a>.”</p>
<p>This has inspired rhetorical gimmicks like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/10/joe-biden-lying-dog-faced-pony-soldier-new-hampshire">cowboy talk</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1225611968234610689">meaningless platitudes</a>, that have been <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90462961/biden-insult-bot-and-buttigieg-platitude-generator-are-both-hilariously-accurate">mercilessly satirized</a> online. The desperate turn to disavowal and gimmickry strongly suggests the collapse of the Third Way and the rise of a new politics for the Democratic Party. </p>
<p>Democratic socialism might just be about to have its moment in America.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Jason Hannan is the author of <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/ethics-under-capital-9781350080591/">Ethics Under Capital: MacIntyre, Communication, and the Culture Wars</a> (Bloomsbury, 2020). Read the prologue <a href="https://www.academia.edu/40927318/Prologue_to_Ethics_Under_Capital_MacIntyre_Communication_and_the_Culture_Wars_Bloomsbury_2019_">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Hannan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bernie Sanders is effectively indicting the political economic structure in which the super-rich have amassed extraordinary sums of wealth at the expense of everyone else — and our shared planet.Jason Hannan, Associate Professor of Rhetoric & Communications, University of WinnipegLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1325592020-02-28T14:05:53Z2020-02-28T14:05:53ZHow one man fought South Carolina Democrats to end whites-only primaries – and why that matters now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317666/original/file-20200227-24668-xhaypd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=76%2C85%2C1879%2C1511&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">George and Laura Elmore (left) voting after wining a landmark case ending white-only primaries in South Carolina</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://civilrights.sc.edu/">University of South Carolina Civil Rights Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A rusting chain-link fence represents a “color line” for the dead in Columbia, South Carolina. In Randolph Cemetery, separated by the barrier from the well-manicured lawn of the neighboring white graveyard, lies the remains of George A. Elmore.</p>
<p>A black business owner and civil rights activist, Elmore is little remembered despite his achievement. But a granite monument at his grave attests to the “unmatched courage, perseverance and personal sacrifice” that saw him take on the South Carolina Democratic Party of the 1940s over its whites-only primaries – and win.</p>
<p>Nearly 75 years after Elmore’s battle, the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates made <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/biden-faces-competition-black-vote-firewall-sc-68861978">fervent appeals to African American voters</a> in South Carolina ahead of the primary being held on Feb. 29. For some of the all white front-runners in the race, it could be a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-meets-his-make-or-break-moment-in-south-carolina/2020/02/26/59256c22-58ae-11ea-ab68-101ecfec2532_story.html">make-or-break moment</a> – a failure to win over sufficient black support would be a major setback, potentially campaign-ending.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1060&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1060&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317667/original/file-20200227-24664-okadgs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1060&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">George Elmore in front of his Store.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://civilrights.sc.edu/">University of South Carolina Civil Rights Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>It is a far cry from the South Carolina of August 1946, when Elmore, a fair-skinned, straight-haired manager of a neighborhood five-and-dime store, consulted with local civil rights leaders and agreed to try once again to register to vote.</p>
<p>It followed blatant attempts to deprive African American citizens of their constitutional rights by white Democratic Party officials who would move voter registration books from store to store and hide them the moment a black voter entered.</p>
<p>When a clerk mistakenly allowed Elmore to register – thinking he was white, contemporary sources suggest – NAACP activists had a plaintiff to challenge the last whites-only primary in the nation.</p>
<h2>‘Let the chips fall’</h2>
<p>Excluding black voters at the ballot had already been ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1944’s <a href="https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/landmark-smith-v-allwright">Smith v. Allwright</a> decision. But in defiance, the South Carolina General Assembly simply redefined the state’s Democratic Party as a private club not subject to laws regulating primaries. <a href="https://casetext.com/case/elmore-v-rice">Gov. Olin D. Johnston declared</a>: “White supremacy will be maintained in our primaries. Let the chips fall where they may.”</p>
<p>Elmore’s name was promptly purged from the rolls and a cadre of prominent civil rights activists arranged for the NAACP to plead his case.</p>
<p>Columbia civil rights attorney Harold Boulware filed the <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp/72/516/2238812/">federal lawsuit</a>. In June 1947, Thurgood Marshall and Robert Carter – like Boulware, graduates of the Howard University School of Law – argued Elmore’s case as a class lawsuit covering all African Americans in the state of voting age. The trial inspired a packed gallery of African American observers, including a young <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Matthew-James-Perry-Jr">Matthew J. Perry Jr.</a>, a future federal district judge, who commented: “Marshall and Carter were hitting it where it should be hit.”</p>
<p>In July, an unlikely ally, Charleston blueblood <a href="https://unexampledcourage.com">Judge J. Waties Waring</a> agreed, ruling that African Americans must be permitted to enroll. “It is time for South Carolina to rejoin the Union,” he concluded. “It is time … to adopt the American way of conducting elections.” </p>
<p>The state Democratic Party again defied the ruling, requiring voters to sign an oath supporting segregation. Judge Waring issued a <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp/80/1017/1868993/">permanent injunction in 1948</a> to open the voting rolls: “To say that these rules conform or even pretend to conform to the law as laid down in the case of Elmore v. Rice is an absurdity.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317668/original/file-20200227-24668-1qy686e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voters in Columbia, August 1948.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://digital.tcl.sc.edu/digital/collection/mccrayjh/id/9271/rec/6">South Caroliniana Library, University of South Carolina</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>In that year’s state primary, more than 30,000 African Americans, including George Elmore and his wife Laura, voted. Elmore remarked, “In the words of our other champion, Joe Louis, all I can say is ‘I’m glad I won.’” </p>
<p>His <a href="https://digital.tcl.sc.edu/digital/collection/mccrayjh/id/9271/rec/6">photos</a> of the long line of voters in his community’s precinct are now in the archives of the University of South Carolina <a href="https://www.sc.edu/study/colleges_schools/artsandsciences/history/our_people/directory/donaldson_bobby.php">where I teach history</a>.</p>
<p>In the years that followed, <a href="http://www.processhistory.org/voter-education-project/">voter education</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4788322">registration programs</a> by civil rights organizations transformed the Democratic Party in the state, both in terms of the makeup of its membership and the policies it pursued. The move sparked the departure of many white Democrats to the Republican Party, including the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/27/us/strom-thurmond-foe-of-integration-dies-at-100.html">segregationist Sen. Strom Thurmond</a>.</p>
<p>Thurmond’s defection in 1964 legitimized the move for other white Democrats and hard-core segregationists who aligned themselves with an increasingly conservative Republican Party. Not surprisingly, some of the key architects of Richard Nixon’s invidious <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/07/26/what-we-get-wrong-about-southern-strategy/">Southern strategy</a>, which sought to weaken the Democratic Party in the South through the use of dog-whistle politics on racial issues, came from South Carolina.</p>
<p>As this year’s presidential candidates focus on South Carolina, it is clear that the racial makeup of the state’s electorate is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/01/31/just-how-demographically-skewed-are-the-early-democratic-primary-states/">vastly different</a> than that in Iowa or New Hampshire, two of the states where the popularity of candidates has already been tested. But Democrats should view the South Carolina primary as more than a shift from voting in small, mostly white states. They should see the state as representative of the party’s strategic core, a strong African American constituency with diverse interests and perspectives.</p>
<p>African Americans in South Carolina have been fighting and winning legal and political battles for voting rights and electoral power <a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2018/01/the-many-black-americans-who-held-public-office-during-reconstruction-in-southern-states-like-south-carolina.html">since Reconstruction</a> and as Democrats since the 1940s.</p>
<h2>A personal price</h2>
<p>After Elmore’s victory in 1947, state NAACP President James M. Hinton gave a somber, prophetic warning: “White men want office, and they want the vote of our people. We will be sought after, but we must be extremely careful who we vote for. … We must have a choice between those who have fought us and those who are our friends.”</p>
<p>George Elmore and his family paid a price for challenging the entrenched power of the white Democratic Party in 1946. In an interview with the University of South Carolina’s <a href="http://civilrights.sc.edu/">Center for Civil Rights History and Research</a>, which I lead, his 81-year-old son Cresswell Elmore recalled the retaliation the family experienced. Ku Klux Klan terrorists burned a cross in their yard and threatened their family. Laura Elmore suffered a nervous breakdown and went into a mental hospital. State agents raided Elmore’s liquor store, claiming the liquor he had bought from the standard wholesaler was illegal, and broke the bottles. Soda bottling companies and other vendors refused to send products on credit. Banks called in loans on their home and other property. Forced into bankruptcy, the family moved from house to house and the disruption scattered Cresswell and his siblings. When Elmore died in 1959 at the age of 53, only scant attention was paid to his passing.</p>
<p>The monument at his grave was unveiled in 1981, at a ceremony attended by civil rights veterans including his original attorney, Harold Boulware.</p>
<p>As the Democratic Party and presidential candidates appeal to African American voters, they would do well to remember the remarkable fight Elmore and others waged against the forces of bigotry and injustice. These historical struggles illuminate both the gains made over many generations and the ongoing battle against inequities and voter suppression tactics that persist to this day in South Carolina and across the nation.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bobby J. Donaldson receives funding from National Park Service.</span></em></p>South Carolina’s black community has a long history of fighting for democratic rights.Bobby J. Donaldson, Associate Professor of History; Director Center for Civil Rights History and Research, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1323452020-02-24T03:58:27Z2020-02-24T03:58:27ZBernie Sanders easily wins Nevada caucus; the Coalition regains support in Newspoll<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316779/original/file-20200224-24694-befpnj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">LARRY W. SMITH/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bernie Sanders has easily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, cementing his status as front-runner for the Democratic nomination in the US presidential election. </p>
<p>With 88% of <a href="https://elections.ap.org/dailykos/results/2020-02-22/state/NV">precincts reporting</a>, Sanders won 47.1% of county delegates, the media’s preferred measure for declaring victory. Joe Biden followed with 20.9%, Pete Buttigieg had 13.6%, Elizabeth Warren 9.7%, Tom Steyer 4.5% and Amy Klobuchar 3.9%.</p>
<p>Sanders’ win was less impressive on initial popular votes during caucusing with 34.3%, followed by Biden at 17.9%, Buttigieg 15.2%, Warren 12.8%, Klobuchar 9.3% and Steyer 9.1%. </p>
<p>On popular votes after realignment of those candidates who failed to win at least 15% at a particular precinct, Sanders had 40.7%, Biden 19.7%, Buttigieg 17.1%, Warren 11.2%, Klobuchar 6.8% and Steyer 4.0%.</p>
<p>Sanders benefited from being the only candidate who exceeded the 15% threshold at almost every precinct. So, if Sanders was the only candidate above 15% at a precinct, he would take all of that precinct’s county delegates.</p>
<p>Caucuses are managed by the party, not the state’s electoral authorities. After long delays in reporting results at both Iowa and Nevada, it should be a relief <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-approval-ratings-crash-over-bushfires-in-first-2020-newspoll-sanders-has-narrow-iowa-lead-129774">very few caucuses</a> remain on the Democratic schedule. </p>
<p>Most other states vote with primaries, or straightforward ballot elections.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-presidential-primaries-are-arcane-complex-and-unrepresentative-so-why-do-americans-still-vote-this-way-129759">The US presidential primaries are arcane, complex and unrepresentative. So why do Americans still vote this way?</a>
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<h2>National polls show Sanders with clear advantage</h2>
<p>The latest RealClearPolitics <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">national poll average</a> for the Democratic presidential nomination has Sanders with a clear lead of 29.3% of prospective voters, ahead of Biden at 17.2%, Michael Bloomberg 15.3%, Warren 13.2%, Buttigieg 9.8% and Klobuchar 6.3%.</p>
<p>In the US Democratic primary system, <a href="https://www.270towin.com/content/thresholds-for-delegate-allocation-2020-democratic-primary-and-caucus">pledged delegates are allocated proportionally</a> to all candidates who clear the 15% vote threshold, both within a state and congressional district. Candidates <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/how-primary-elections-work.html">need to win a majority of delegates</a> (at least 1,990) by July’s Democratic National Convention to win the nomination.</p>
<p>With the latest national polls, Sanders is the only candidate far enough above 15% to be assured of clearing that threshold virtually everywhere. If the poll results are reflected on <a href="http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/ccad.phtml">Super Tuesday</a> on March 3, when 14 states vote and 34% of all pledged delegates are awarded, Sanders’ share of delegates would far exceed his vote share.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-dozen-candidates-one-big-target-in-a-crowded-democratic-field-who-can-beat-trump-119295">Two dozen candidates, one big target: in a crowded Democratic field, who can beat Trump?</a>
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<p>There is one more contest before Super Tuesday: the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html">South Carolina</a> primary on Saturday. </p>
<p>With the state’s large African-American population, Biden had been expecting a big win here, but his lead over Sanders in the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html">latest RealClearPolitics poll average</a> has plunged from 14 percentage points in late January to just three points now.</p>
<h2>Can Bloomberg gain ground on Super Tuesday?</h2>
<p>The two most populous states voting on Super Tuesday are California and Texas. Bloomberg will contest Super Tuesday states after sitting out the first four nominating contests. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/SuperTuesday.html">RealClearPolitics</a> average gives Sanders 26.3% in California, followed by Biden at 14.8%, Bloomberg 14.5%, Warren 12.0% and Buttigieg 11.3%. In Texas, it’s Sanders ahead at 23.5%, Biden 21.0%, Warren 14.5% and Bloomberg 14.0%.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo">FiveThirtyEight</a> forecasting model for the Democratic nomination gives Sanders a 45% chance of winning a pledged delegate majority. Nobody winning a majority is at 41%, with a Biden majority a distant third at 9%.</p>
<p>Bloomberg had been gaining in the polls, at least before <a href="https://time.com/5787320/democratic-debate-analysis-bloomberg-warren/">Wednesday’s widely criticised debate</a> performance. However, in a direct match-up with Sanders, he got crushed by a 57-37% margin in an <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-wsj-poll-sanders-opens-double-digit-national-lead-n1138191">NBC/WSJ</a> poll. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-the-iowa-caucuses-had-major-glitches-but-the-results-may-not-even-matter-that-much-131132">Yes, the Iowa caucuses had major glitches, but the results may not even matter that much</a>
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<p>While Bloomberg is winning the votes of those Democrats who believe only a billionaire can beat Donald Trump, many Democrats (particularly Sanders supporters) dislike giving the nomination to a billionaire.</p>
<p>If nobody comes near a majority of pledged delegates, there will be a contested <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention">Democratic convention</a> in mid-July. Should this occur, it would be the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention">first since 1952</a>. If Bloomberg defeated Sanders at a contested convention, the Democratic Party’s left would react badly to the perception of a billionaire stealing the nomination from their guy.</p>
<p>Trump’s ratings, meanwhile, are trending up, thanks to the good US economy. In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/">FiveThirtyEight</a> aggregate, his net approval is -7.8% with polls of registered or likely voters. </p>
<p>Trump still trails the leading Democrats in <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/National.html">RealClearPolitics</a> national polling averages, with Sanders and Biden leading him by about 4.5 percentage points in head-to-head contests, Bloomberg leading by 3.3 points, and Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar leading by around two points.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316781/original/file-20200224-24694-toxye8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316781/original/file-20200224-24694-toxye8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316781/original/file-20200224-24694-toxye8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316781/original/file-20200224-24694-toxye8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316781/original/file-20200224-24694-toxye8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316781/original/file-20200224-24694-toxye8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316781/original/file-20200224-24694-toxye8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Bloomberg took part in his first Democratic candidates’ debate in Nevada last week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ETIENNE LAURENT/EPA</span></span>
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<h2>Labor retains lead over Coalition in Newspoll</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-coalition-closes-gap-on-labor-anthony-albanese-slides/news-story/631e801497b1359db328efbcbe29a352">This week’s Newspoll</a>, conducted February 19-22 from a sample of 1,510 people, gave Labor a 51-49% lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll three weeks ago. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (steady) and 4% One Nation (steady). All figures here are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/02/23/newspoll-51-49-labor-11/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>Nearly four in ten (38%) were satisfied with Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s performance (up one), and 58% were dissatisfied (down one), for a net approval of -20. </p>
<p>However, Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped eight points to -5, reversing the large jump for him after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-approval-ratings-crash-over-bushfires-in-first-2020-newspoll-sanders-has-narrow-iowa-lead-129774">bushfire crisis</a>. Albanese’s lead over Morrison as better PM fell to 41-40%, from 43-38%.</p>
<p>On questions about the bushfires, 56% of respondents thought the main cause of the crisis was a failure by state governments to conduct adequate hazard-reduction burns, while 35% said climate change.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nearly-80-of-australians-affected-in-some-way-by-the-bushfires-new-survey-shows-131672">Nearly 80% of Australians affected in some way by the bushfires, new survey shows</a>
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<p>On the federal government’s priorities, 43% said it should be to meet targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions (up 19 percentage points since July 2018), while 42% said it should be to keep energy prices down (down 21 points) and 11% to prevent blackouts (up two). </p>
<p>Half of respondents said they would be prepared to pay nothing more for electricity to meet the emissions target (down eight points since October 2017) and 41% said they would pay more (up 11 points).</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://theconversation.com/buttigieg-and-sanders-close-in-iowa-results-and-labor-increases-newspoll-lead-130592">last article analysing Newspoll</a>, I was sceptical of the durability of Labor’s 52-48% lead. With the bushfires now well in the past, the government appears to be recovering. </p>
<p>While the climate change questions showed more people in favour of prioritising the environment, there were still more respondents who chose lowering costs and preventing blackouts as top priorities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sanders has cemented his status as front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination ahead of Super Tuesday, even with Michael Bloomberg’s entrance to the race.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1317392020-02-18T13:55:01Z2020-02-18T13:55:01ZDemocratic candidates seek a big and unprecedented K-12 funding boost<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315356/original/file-20200213-11000-t70bwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C640%2C4062%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">She's got proposals for constituents too young to vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-candidate-sen-amy-klobuchar-greets-news-photo/1199727589">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Democratic presidential candidates are proposing <a href="http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/campaign-k-12/2019/09/presidential-candidates-education-2020-teachers-student-debt-school-safety-funding.html">new approaches</a> to the <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/overview/fed/role.html">federal government’s role</a> in public education. </p>
<p>Former Vice President <a href="https://joebiden.com/education/">Joe Biden</a> and Sen. <a href="https://berniesanders.com/en/issues/reinvest-in-public-education/">Bernie Sanders</a> want to triple the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/EDFP_a_00103">US$15 billion</a> spent annually on <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/programs/titleiparta/index.html">Title I</a>, a program that sends extra federal dollars to school districts that educate a high percentage of poor children.</p>
<p>Sen. <a href="https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/public-education">Elizabeth Warren</a> wants to go further and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2019/10/22/what-elizabeth-warrens-k-12-plan-reveals-about-education-politics-today/">quadruple funding for that same program</a>. </p>
<p>Other candidates have similar proposals to substantially increase funding for public education, including Sen. <a href="https://medium.com/@AmyforAmerica/amys-first-100-days-b7adf9f91262">Amy Klobuchar</a> and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2019/12/07/mayor-pete-buttigieg-k-12-education-plan-charter-schools/">Pete Buttigieg</a>. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg hasn’t yet issued his education platform, or <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/01/05/bloomberg-education-plan-to-promote-charter-school-expansion/">indicated where he stands on federal K-12 funding</a>.</p>
<p>Funding increases of this scale would transform the <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-role-in-education-has-a-long-history-74807">federal role in education policy</a>, making it easier for school districts to <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/teacher-pay-gap-2018/">pay teachers higher wages</a> while <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-of-a-difference-does-the-number-of-kids-in-a-classroom-make-125703">reducing class sizes</a>. This focus on funding would mark a departure from previous administrations, which instead emphasized policies intended to increase <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/nclb/landing.jhtml">accountability</a> and strengthen <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/programs/racetothetop/index.html">teacher evaluation</a>.</p>
<p>As a scholar of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=F8pdFSgAAAAJ&hl=en">school finance</a>, I study the role of resources in schools. The <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w25368">research</a> is clear that <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20150249">spending more</a> <a href="https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.1162/EDFP_a_00236">on students</a> over the long haul would bring about <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/131/1/157/2461148">long-term benefits</a>.</p>
<h2>Only 8%</h2>
<p>The federal government spends a total of about <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_235.10.asp?current=yes">$55 billion per year on K-12</a> education, in addition to outlays for <a href="http://nieer.org/state-preschool-yearbooks">early childhood</a> and post-secondary programs like loans and grants for <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2017/03/07/federal-support-for-higher-education-comes-from-spending-programs-and-the-tax-code">college tuition</a>. This amounts to around $1,000 per K-12 student and <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_235.10.asp?current=yes">just 8%</a> of the total $700 billion it costs to run the nation’s public schools, which are mostly funded by state and local tax dollars.</p>
<p>Federal funding has <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_235.10.asp?current=yes">never surpassed 10%</a> of total public school funding, except from 2010 to 2012 when the federal government sought to reduce the <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/policy/gen/leg/recovery/implementation.html">school spending cuts</a> <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/688011/summary">brought about during the Great Recession</a>.</p>
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<p>The federal government has historically exerted influence in non-monetary ways. For example, under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-role-in-education-has-a-long-history-74807">No Child Left Behind Act</a> of 2001, President George W. Bush’s administration relied on standardized tests to hold schools accountable for student achievement. Schools that failed to make yearly progress on test scores faced <a href="https://education.findlaw.com/curriculum-standards-school-funding/what-happens-when-a-school-fails-to-make-adequate-yearly-progress.html">serious repercussions</a>, such as replacing the school staff or reopening the school as a charter school.</p>
<p>Former President Barack Obama’s Education Department used <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/programs/racetothetop/index.html">Race to the Top</a> – under which states competed for federal grants through a point system – and <a href="https://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/nclb-waivers-timeline-and-glossary-of-terms.html">other initiatives</a> to get states to adopt a specific set of policies regarding teacher hiring, promotion and dismissal that the Education Department said would help schools employ better teachers overall.</p>
<p>Obama also signed the <a href="https://www.ed.gov/essa">Every Student Succeeds Act</a> into law <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-every-student-succeeds-act-still-leaves-most-vulnerable-kids-behind-46247">in 2015</a>. It scaled back many of these policies and returned authority over accountability back to <a href="https://www.the74million.org/article/this-weeks-essa-news-maryland-releases-second-year-of-school-ratings-school-climate-surveys-emerging-as-accountability-measure-looking-ahead-to-reauthorization-more/">individual states</a>.</p>
<p>These initiatives have two things in common. All of them have been longer on mandates than money, and it’s unclear that any have worked. Some <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10009-1.html">major studies</a> <a href="https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/pubs/20174001/">failed to find</a> substantial impacts and educators have <a href="http://blogs.edweek.org/teachers/teaching_now/2019/10/most_states_have_walked_back_tough_teacher_evaluation_policies_report.html">largely opposed</a> using student test scores to drive high-stakes staffing decisions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Testing, testing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Washington-Legislature/f206331a6ae14c048d718d5dc8dc8b2e/4/0">AP Photo/Ted S. Warren</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Graphic concerns</h2>
<p>One source of opposition to increasing spending on public schools is a <a href="http://www.shankerinstitute.org/blog/we-cant-graph-our-way-out-research-education-spending">now</a>-<a href="https://schoolfinance101.wordpress.com/2011/03/02/smart-guy-gates-makes-my-list-of-dumbest-stuff-ive-ever-read/">infamous</a> <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2018/04/13/why-the-school-spending-graph-betsy-devos-is-sharing-doesnt-mean-what-she-says-it-does/">graph</a> that traces the rise of this spending on a per-student basis over the past 40 years, while test scores have remained stagnant. The juxtaposition of these two trend lines, opponents of higher spending say, suggests that more funding is not the answer.</p>
<p>Versions of this chart often appear in <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/public-school-spending-theres-chart">libertarian</a>, <a href="https://www.alec.org/article/increasing-education-spending-equal-higher-test-scores/">conservative</a> and <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bill-gates-school-performance_b_829771">mainstream</a> outlets.</p>
<p>Education Secretary <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2018/04/13/why-the-school-spending-graph-betsy-devos-is-sharing-doesnt-mean-what-she-says-it-does/">Betsy DeVos tweeted</a> a version of the graph and later <a href="https://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/statement-secretary-devos-2019-naep-results">declared</a> that the “gap between the highest- and lowest-performing students is widening, despite $1 trillion in federal spending over 40 years.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"984534888941604864"}"></div></p>
<p>I find DeVos’ statement and the graph she was talking about misleading.</p>
<p>A simple comparison of two trends does not necessarily mean that one causes the other. I also think this line of argument becomes potentially dangerous when policymakers use it to <a href="https://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-education/2016/07/what-the-republican-platform-says-about-education-215401">justify under-investing in public education</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year would <a href="http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/campaign-k-12/2020/02/trump-slash-education-funding-merge-block-grant-charter-schools-title-I.html">reduce federal K-12 spending</a>.</p>
<h2>More spending on white kids</h2>
<p>The significant increase in Title I funding Sanders, Warren, Biden and other candidates propose could partly address a problem that all the leading <a href="http://schottfoundation.org/2020-presidential-forum-public-education">Democratic presidential candidates agree</a> requires urgent action: substantial <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102%2F0013189X16670899">funding</a> <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/688011/summary">inequities</a> in public schools.</p>
<p>Despite a widespread stated <a href="https://ccsso.org/resource-library/leading-equity-opportunities-state-education-chiefs">commitment to equity</a>, many states <a href="http://www.shankerinstitute.org/resource/adequacy-and-fairness-state-school-finance-systems">actually spend less</a> in high-poverty school districts than in more affluent communities.</p>
<p>In addition, students of color attend schools that receive, on average, <a href="https://edbuild.org/content/23-billion">$2,200 less per student</a> from state coffers compared with the schools predominantly enrolling white students. </p>
<p>Of course, finding a way to pay for these spending increases through new tax dollars or cuts to other priorities would be a challenge. But there is probably no way to address the challenges facing the nation’s public schools that doesn’t involve significant increases in funding, targeted to places where most students are <a href="https://poverty.ucdavis.edu/faq/how-does-level-education-relate-poverty">growing up in poverty</a>.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com/democratic-presidential-hopefuls-are-promising-to-ramp-up-funding-for-public-schools-123136">December 18, 2019</a>.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131739/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David S. Knight receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the W. T. Grant Foundation, the Spencer Foundation, and the American School Counselor Association.</span></em></p>Biden, Sanders, Warren and other candidates are calling for far more federal spending for schools in low-income areas.David S. Knight, Assistant Professor of Education Finance and Policy, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1297392020-02-12T04:45:50Z2020-02-12T04:45:50ZCandidates say they want to build momentum with voters – but what is that actually worth?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314596/original/file-20200210-109912-e7ax9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Before the primary, Buttigieg said his campaign had the 'strongest momentum.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Election-2020-Pete-Buttigieg/f297686fceb54c808a1042be54fa6100/67/0">AP Photo/Mary Altaffer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“We are the campaign with the strongest momentum in the state of New Hampshire,” <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/buttigieg-on-defense-as-2020-rivals-aim-to-blunt-his-momentum">Pete Buttigieg told a crowd in Nashua</a> last week.</p>
<p>“I’ve got the ‘Big Mo,’” said George H. Bush <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2007/04/the-big-mo-it-can-change-with-time-003562">after winning the Iowa caucuses in 1980</a>. </p>
<p>Following this year’s New Hampshire primary, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/us/politics/nh-primary-election.html">won by Bernie Sanders</a>, observers of the 2020 Democratic primary will undoubtedly continue to hear claims from the candidates and the news media about “momentum” – the advantage a candidate gains after winning a primary election by a greater amount than predicted by polls taken before the election. </p>
<p>But what does it mean for a candidate to have momentum, and how will momentum affect the media’s coverage of the Democratic candidates in 2020?</p>
<p><a href="https://polisci.richmond.edu/faculty/dpalazzo/">We</a> <a href="https://polisci.richmond.edu/faculty/emcgowen/">view</a> momentum as more than a talking point or a prized gift for the winner of the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire primary. </p>
<p>When a candidate exceeds expectations in a primary or caucus, the media responds with favorable coverage, which in turn influences polls, donations and volunteers. Interestingly, the momentum of the insurgent has a stronger effect on media coverage than that of the front-runner.</p>
<h2>Measuring momentum</h2>
<p>In 2014, building on the research of political scientist <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/dynamic-model-of-presidential-nomination-campaigns/1DFBF264003869EBA727399FFACA3E7D">John Aldrich</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12131">we devised</a> a way to measure momentum numerically.</p>
<p>We calculated pollsters’ expectations relative to total vote share, giving the candidate a bigger “bump” for exceeding expectations by a larger margin. The candidate who exceeds expectations the most relative to the size of their actual primary vote share receives the highest momentum scores.</p>
<p>These “momentum scores” are independent of electoral outcomes, like the accumulation of delegates from state elections.</p>
<p>We then used the scores to compare gains and losses in momentum with the media coverage after each primary election. To assess the amount and favorability of news coverage, we gathered data on the number of mentions and positive stories for each candidate in The New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post from Jan. 3 to March 12, 2012. </p>
<p><iframe id="9B3mh" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9B3mh/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Who gained and lost in 2012</h2>
<p>In examining the 2012 Republican primaries, we found that candidates with above-average momentum receive more positive media coverage.</p>
<p>However, the relationship between momentum and media coverage depends on whether a candidate is the front-runner or a challenger. The insurgent challenger got a stronger bump from momentum than the front-runner, who received more negative coverage even after securing wins in some primaries.</p>
<p>For example, Mitt Romney was the front-runner going into the Iowa caucuses and winner of 42 out of 54 primary states and 74% of all delegates. He had the highest momentum scores in the GOP field. </p>
<p>Romney’s closest challenger, Rick Santorum, actually led Romney in cumulative momentum between the Nevada and Washington primaries. After Super Tuesday, Romney built a lead in momentum that he would never relinquish.</p>
<p>As one might expect from his front-runner status, Romney received the most media mentions, an average of 11.3 mentions per primary day, almost five more than Santorum. A larger proportion of all stories about him were positive, again exceeding Santorum’s numbers.</p>
<p>But a more nuanced story emerges when we examine the relationship between momentum and media coverage. When both candidates experienced momentum, the challenger, Santorum, received more positive coverage than Romney. </p>
<p>When Romney had above-average momentum, 64.2% of news stories about him were positive. Meanwhile, Santorum received positive stories 78.5% of the time when he had above-average momentum. </p>
<p>Moreover, we saw even when Romney exceeded his average momentum, he was statistically more likely to receive negative coverage than his opponents. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mitt Romney speaks at a 2012 campaign event in Florida.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/GOP-Campaign/4cdd49f0d6ef44f088d7f3f1ce167396/36/0">AP Photo/Mary Altaffer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What this means for 2020</h2>
<p>Based on our analysis from 2012, the most recent single-party open primary, we believe a similar pattern may hold in 2020. </p>
<p>Joe Biden and Sanders <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">appear to be dual front-runners</a>, given Biden’s consistent lead in national polls and endorsements, and Sanders’ fundraising advantage and early successes.</p>
<p>The early results, with Sanders having strong showings in the first two primaries, suggest his situation may be similar to Romney’s, where the media may frame even victories as falling below expectations. </p>
<p>The effects of momentum on Pete Buttigieg will likely vary from week to week, depending on primary election results. He may be framed as a flash in the pan" when the electorate is unfavorable one week and “surging” the next.</p>
<p>Amy Klobuchar, on the other hand, stands to receive the most positive coverage relative to momentum. <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">As a top-tier candidate with the lowest expectations</a>, Klobuchar will likely enjoy the most favorable coverage overall. Even third place finishes going forward should be enough for her to garner positive coverage and mentions, whereas a similar result for any of the other candidates will stunt their momentum. </p>
<p>So, as this primary season begins, watch the relationships between expectations, votes and media coverage. Candidate momentum is something that can change from one primary election to the next. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129739/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Palazzolo previously received funding from the Dirksen Center and the American Political Science Association. Neither source funded any research that went into this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ernest B. McGowen III does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When candidates beat pollsters’ expectations, that can mean more positive media coverage.Daniel Palazzolo, Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondErnest B. McGowen III, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1314502020-02-11T12:32:01Z2020-02-11T12:32:01ZThe opioid crisis is a big issue in New Hampshire – 5 questions answered on what voters want the candidates to do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314597/original/file-20200210-109887-xqm1eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C9%2C3232%2C2140&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">At the New Hampshire primary debate, America's opioid crisis came up as an issue.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Debate/452cf965ccb24d25b03304498e910d47/15/0">Elise Amendola/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>America’s opioid crisis has hit New Hampshire hard, creating an epidemic of overdoses and addiction-related health issues in the early primary state.</em></p>
<p><em>We asked Amanda Latimore, an <a href="https://www.jhsph.edu/faculty/directory/profile/3091/amanda-latimore">opioid and behavioral health expert at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health</a>, to explain why the opioid crisis is important to voters and what candidates could be doing to address it.</em></p>
<h2>1. How important is the opioid crisis to NH voters?</h2>
<p>Drug misuse was the number one issue for New Hampshire voters <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/09/no-1-issue-for-new-hampshire-voters-may-surprise-you.html">in 2016 polls</a>, overshadowing jobs, the economy and health care. At the time, the state was second in the nation for drug overdose deaths. Four years later, New Hampshire remains among the states with the highest rates of <a href="https://www.drugabuse.gov/drugs-abuse/opioids/opioid-summaries-by-state">opioid-</a> and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/statedeaths.html">total drug-related deaths</a>. Yet according to <a href="https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2020/01/Crosstabs-2020-01-WBUR-NH-D-Primary-Politics.pdf">a January 2020 poll</a> only 1% of voters want Democratic candidates to discuss opioids, while nearly half (48%) want to hear more from candidates on health care. </p>
<p>Is this a signal that addiction and the opioid crisis are no longer an important issue for the New Hampshire primary? Not likely. </p>
<p>I suspect that New Hampshire voters are recognizing that addiction is not a moral failing, but a chronic illness that is part of a broader health care discussion. There may be greater awareness that effective medications are available to treat addiction and that supportive conversations about substance use disorder can happen in your primary care doctor’s office. </p>
<h2>2. Is concern split evenly across party lines?</h2>
<p>Regardless of their political affiliation, the opioid crisis has likely affected everyone in New Hampshire either directly or indirectly. Drug pricing is one area that seems to <a href="https://socialsecurityworks.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Drug-Pricing-Swing-District-Poll-Results.pdf">cross party lines</a>, with 84% of Republicans and 96% of Democrats agreeing that drug prices are an important issue. Collaboration in Congress on this issue could reduce the price of the overdose-reversing medication, naloxone, which is currently so expensive that it <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/2017/11/21/as-opioid-crisis-worsens-a-drug-used-to-reverse-overdoses-can-be-difficult-to-access/">strains government agency budgets</a> across the U.S. and deters the average American from picking up naloxone at their pharmacy.</p>
<h2>3. What remedies to the crisis are popular among voters?</h2>
<p>Requiring insurers to cover addiction treatment was <a href="https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2020/01/Crosstabs-2020-01-WBUR-NH-D-Primary-Politics.pdf">the most popular strategy</a> cited by likely voters in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, according to a poll conducted for Boston-based WBUR. With 90% approval for that measure, candidates would be well-advised to campaign on enforcing laws which already require insurance companies to cover behavioral health services at the same level as other medical benefits.</p>
<p>Other popular solutions include expanding needle exchanges (71% in favor); taking legal action against pharmaceutical companies for their role in the opioid crisis (80%); supervised consumption spaces, where people can safely use drugs under medical supervision (57%), and decriminalizing possession of small amounts of drugs (66%).</p>
<p>Harm reduction strategies, like needle exchange programs, recognize that not everyone is ready to stop using drugs, but still help people stay safe. This approach is essential for <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23975473">preventing the transmission</a> of infectious diseases like HIV. Supervised consumption spaces have been <a href="https://harmreductionjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12954-017-0154-1">found to reduce overdoses</a>, particularly in the area near the program site. They also create an open door for people who are typically poorly served by traditional health care settings, if and when they’re ready to seek treatment.</p>
<p>The state of New Hampshire primed its voters to understand that accessible behavioral health does not operate in a silo. The state takes a “no wrong door” approach to supporting those affected by the opioid crisis. This includes initiatives like <a href="https://www.wellsense.org/-/media/1019ec4c0a6d43e9bb826607c3df2d5d.ashx">Safe Stations</a> and <a href="https://thedoorway.nh.gov/home">The Doorway</a>, through which those seeking addiction treatment or support for themselves or a loved one can get a referral. </p>
<p>New Hampshire laws that explicitly protect syringe service programs and the participants they serve and Medicaid coverage for opioid use disorder medications like methadone and buprenorphine make it easier for people to get access to the support they need when they need it.</p>
<h2>4. What policies do health experts recommend?</h2>
<p><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2760032">Medications for opioid use disorder</a> help reduce both overdose deaths and use of high-cost medical services, but only 12% of people with opioid use disorder are treated with these life-saving drugs. While those medications are covered by New Hampshire’s Medicaid expansion, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6330240/">several barriers still exist</a>. Doctors currently must undergo additional training to prescribe buprenorphine and are further restricted by having a cap on the number of patients to which they can prescribe the medication. Removing these unnecessary barriers, that don’t exist for most other chronic illness medications, would improve access.</p>
<p>To win over New Hampshire voters, candidates should consider supporting efforts to create national standards for behavioral health services. Individuals seeking care should have access to information about the quality of a treatment facility and whether it offers evidence-based services.</p>
<p>State adoption of Medicaid expansion in the U.S. between 2001 and 2017 was associated with a <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2758476">6% decrease</a> in opioid overdose deaths. Any action that restricts or eliminates coverage could reverse progress.</p>
<h2>5. How do the candidates positions differ?</h2>
<p>Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg all propose increasing funding to support treatment and harm-reduction initiatives.</p>
<p>Joe Biden seeks to build on the existing health care system and enforce insurance coverage rules. </p>
<p>Decriminalizing addiction may be the single most important factor for reducing stigma on addiction. And once we stop seeing those who are addicted as criminals, resistance clears for implementing evidence-based strategies.</p>
<p>Pre-arrest diversion programs recognize that people need treatment not jail time. It is encouraging to me that this sentiment has been shared by nearly all Democratic primary candidates. </p>
<p>Andrew Yang takes a bold stance on decriminalizing several drugs, but he also suggests imposing mandatory treatment after an overdose and significant restrictions on those who can prescribe opioids. Neither of these approaches are supported by evidence and, in my opinion, may do more harm than good. </p>
<p>Amy Klobuchar is one of the few candidates talking about early prevention. The evidence suggests that problematic drug use in adulthood is less likely if youth reach age-appropriate academic and social milestones. Candidates should develop strategies that ensure families and communities get the economic and social supports they need to help youth reach these goals. </p>
<p>In the debate ahead of the New Hampshire primary, opioids got a mention. But the conversation – taking place in a state that is 94% white – didn’t go deep into how drug policy, along with inequitable economic and health outcomes, works against black and brown Americans. To be truly transformative, candidates must show how their solutions for the opioid crisis will uproot the country’s legacy of inequity to improve health and well-being for all. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Latimore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In 2016, drug misuse was cited as the top concern among New Hampshire voters. What remedies are the Democratic primary contenders putting forward to combat the opioid crisis?Amanda Latimore, Assistant Scientist, Johns Hopkins UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1297432020-02-08T04:38:11Z2020-02-08T04:38:11Z3 standout quotes from the New Hampshire Democratic debate, explained<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314277/original/file-20200208-27519-ot4ll5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden and Warren stand on the debate stage on Feb. 7.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Debate/85319275016447b2841abc6efc9980ac/13/0">AP Photo/Charles Krupa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: Seven candidates met on the debate stage in New Hampshire on Feb. 7, sparring over questions on health care, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, race and more. We asked three scholars to pick out some of the night’s biggest moments as New Hampshire prepares to vote on Feb. 11.</em></p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314276/original/file-20200208-27538-x9yhm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314276/original/file-20200208-27538-x9yhm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314276/original/file-20200208-27538-x9yhm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314276/original/file-20200208-27538-x9yhm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314276/original/file-20200208-27538-x9yhm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314276/original/file-20200208-27538-x9yhm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314276/original/file-20200208-27538-x9yhm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stephanopoulos, right, gets ready to host the Democratic debate with Linsey Davis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Debate/fc8f571ef67540919717a3148d953c1a/1/0">AP Photo/Charles Krupa</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p><strong>Marie Eisenstein, Indiana University Northwest</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Is anyone else on stage concerned about having a Democratic Socialist on the top of the Democratic ticket?” – George Stephanopoulos</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Gallup polls show that more Americans consider socialism “a good thing” today than in the 1940s – <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/257639/four-americans-embrace-form-socialism.aspx">43% agreed with that statement in 2019 versus 25% in 1942</a>. However, those same polls show that 51% of Americans see socialism as “a bad thing” in 2019, a number that was only 40% in 1942.</p>
<p>The real question is: Will Americans be less likely to vote for someone who is a socialist or a democratic socialist? On that question, Gallup polls from both 2015 and 2019 suggests that <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/254120/less-half-vote-socialist-president.aspx">47% of Americans are willing to vote for a socialist</a>. </p>
<p>That means more than 50% of Americans are not willing to do so. This is a serious issue for the Democratic Party in trying to unseat President Donald Trump, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/06/trump-warns-of-socialism-in-state-of-the-union-as-2020-election-starts.html">who regularly denounces socialism</a>. These data certainly suggest this is a thorny issue for the Democrats if Bernie Sanders secures the Democratic nomination.</p>
<p>Just how thorny an issue establishment Democrats consider this was vividly on display recently. Hillary Clinton decried Sanders’ ability to unify the Democratic party and expressed <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-ellen-moon/">concern that Sanders</a> “promise[s] the moon” but will be unable to “deliver” it.</p>
<p>Political commentator James Carville lamented, “Do we want to be an ideological cult, or do we want to have a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/07/politics/carville-democrats-mistake/index.html">majoritarian instinct to be a majority party</a>?” At the heart of both Clinton’s and Carville’s critique is a concern over whether a socialist can win for the Democrats.</p>
<p>This issue – who can beat Trump in November – was a central theme of tonight’s debate. While candidates such as Buttigieg, Steyer, Biden and Klobuchar did not come out and say a socialist cannot win, they certainly tried to highlight what they believe is their more centrist appeal.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314280/original/file-20200208-27519-199m68n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314280/original/file-20200208-27519-199m68n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314280/original/file-20200208-27519-199m68n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314280/original/file-20200208-27519-199m68n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314280/original/file-20200208-27519-199m68n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314280/original/file-20200208-27519-199m68n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314280/original/file-20200208-27519-199m68n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Steyer spoke about the economy on Feb. 7 during the debate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Debate/005099d4ef5840ebb3f11feba07c41d7/5/0">AP Photo/Elise Amendola</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Aaron Kall, University of Michigan</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p>“We’re gonna have to take Mr. Trump down on the economy, because if you listen to him, he’s crowing about it every single day and he’s gonna beat us unless we can take him down on the economy, stupid.” – Tom Steyer</p>
</blockquote>
<p>“It’s the economy, stupid” is a famous <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_economy,_stupid">political phrase</a> coined by Democratic strategist James Carville in 1992 during Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign. Carville has been prominently featured in the news recently for accusing Democrats of “<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/7/21123518/trump-2020-election-democratic-party-james-carville">losing their damn minds</a>.”</p>
<p>As Carville, Steyer and other political prognosticators have indicated, <a href="https://www-journals-uchicago-edu.proxy.lib.umich.edu/doi/pdfplus/10.1111/0022-3816.00063">the state of the U.S. economy</a> between now and Election Day <a href="https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1172&context=uer">may be the most important factor</a> in the 2020 presidential election and single-handedly determine whether Trump wins reelection. </p>
<p>According to the latest <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/trump-job-approval-personal-best.aspx">Gallup News poll</a>, Trump’s job approval rating has recently risen to 49% following his impeachment acquittal vote. That’s the highest number he’s experienced in this poll since becoming president. The same poll found that 63% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, which is the highest such rating found by Gallup News since President George W. Bush in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.</p>
<p>On Feb. 7, the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">Labor Department</a> announced that employers added 225,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate remains near a half-century ebb. Conversely, the U.S. economy created over 500,000 fewer jobs between April 2018 and March 2019 than had previously been believed.</p>
<p>In one regard, it’s shocking that a president that enjoys such tremendous economic support continues to have a job approval rating below 50%. Possible explanations for this dichotomy include a rising <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-national-debt-increase-3-trillion-first-three-years-presidency-1483660">fiscal deficit</a> and voters’ failure to credit Trump for the country’s economic success, given his policies or other perceived shortcomings.</p>
<p>Despite this disconnect, the economic impact of the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/coronavirus-expected-to-hit-chinese-travel-global-economy.html">coronavirus</a> and other unforeseen economic events between now and November could end up having a disproportionate impact on the 2020 presidential election. If so, <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/02/07/tom-steyer-urges-democrats-to-focus-on-the-economy-stupid-during-debate/">Steyer’s quote</a> from the debate in New Hampshire will end up looking quite prescient.</p>
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<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sanders addresses young voters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Debate/e5730b3d2354402a97b791771dc36d0f/7/0">AP Photo/Elise Amendola</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Joseph Cabosky, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Young people came out in higher numbers than they did during Obama’s historic 2008 campaign. And if that happens nationally, we’re going win and defeat Trump.” – Bernie Sanders </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sanders is claiming that, despite the lower than expected turnout in Iowa this year, the 18- to 29-year-old turnout was higher than it was when Obama won the 2008 caucuses. </p>
<p>Is this argument true? Not really.</p>
<p>In this year’s Democratic Iowa caucuses, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa">24% of voters</a> were 29 or younger. Sanders is right in the sense that, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/IADemHorizontal.pdf">in 2008</a>, only 22% of voters in the Democratic Caucus were 29 or younger.</p>
<p>That said, there are two important notes. First, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/02/07/election-2020-democratic-iowa-caucuses-turnout-eclipsed-2016-fell-short-2008/4691004002/">total turnout</a> in the 2008 Iowa caucuses – about 240,000 – was much higher than turnout this year, just over 176,000. Thus, while younger voters were a greater percentage of the vote, the youth vote overall was down nearly 20%. </p>
<p>Second, Sanders is implying he brought out the youth vote this year. It is absolutely true he <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa">dominated with those under 29</a>, pulling in 48% in entrance polls. But, in 2016, he <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/ia/Dem">obtained 84% of voters</a> under 29 in Iowa entrance polls. </p>
<p>In 2016, only 16% of those under 29 went with someone other than Sanders. But <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa">this cycle</a>, Buttigieg, Warren and Yang all received double-digit results with younger voters.</p>
<p>What does this mean for the general election? General election exit polls in Iowa showed young voters stayed relatively flat between <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/states/exitpolls/iowa.html">2008</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/iowa/president">2016</a>.</p>
<p>The big difference? <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/states/exitpolls/iowa.html">In 2008</a>, Obama won 61% of young Iowa voters. Yet, in 2016, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/iowa/president">Trump beat Clinton</a> among that same group with 48% to her 42%, a huge swing. </p>
<p>So, predicting a general election based on the youth vote in a primary, as Sanders is trying to do, can be highly problematic in swing states like Iowa. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Seven candidates met on the debate stage in New Hampshire on Feb. 7. We asked three scholars to pick out some of the night’s biggest moments.Joseph Cabosky, Assistant Professor of Public Relations, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillAaron Kall, Dean of Students, University of MichiganMarie A. Eisenstein, Associate Professor of Political Science, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1313432020-02-07T13:48:49Z2020-02-07T13:48:49ZDemocratic plans for raising taxes on the rich: A guide for the middle class<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314064/original/file-20200206-43079-5q6bhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C191%2C4868%2C3083&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Warren and Sanders are the candidates with arguably the most aggressive plans to tax the rich. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Meg Kinnard</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s hardly surprising that if a Democrat wins the White House, taxes on wealthy Americans and corporations will probably go up. How they’ll go up is the more interesting question.</p>
<p>The 2020 Democratic presidential candidates generally agree the U.S. economy faces a variety of challenges: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/09/26/income-inequality-america-highest-its-been-since-census-started-tracking-it-data-show/">record-high income inequality</a>, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/asce-gives-us-infrastructure-a-d-2017-3">decaying infrastructure</a>, failing public schools, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recording-breaking-weather-linked-to-climate-change-2019-11">climate change that is already leading to fires and floods</a> and a <a href="https://www.pbs.org/healthcarecrisis/uninsured.html">lack of health insurance</a> for millions of Americans, to name a few. </p>
<p>To remedy these problems, <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/2020-tax-plans/">every candidate has proposed raising government revenue</a> by increasing taxes on the rich in one way or another, whether through higher income tax rates, a wealth tax or changing how investment income is treated. </p>
<p>Here is a brief look at the tax plans of the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">top eight candidates</a> in the polls and what <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/author/Pressman%2C+Steven">economists like me</a> think about them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314161/original/file-20200207-27548-f8dql4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314161/original/file-20200207-27548-f8dql4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314161/original/file-20200207-27548-f8dql4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314161/original/file-20200207-27548-f8dql4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314161/original/file-20200207-27548-f8dql4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314161/original/file-20200207-27548-f8dql4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314161/original/file-20200207-27548-f8dql4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bloomberg proposed creating a new 5% surcharge on incomes over $5 million.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David Goldman</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Individual income taxes</h2>
<p>President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax reform law <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/taxes/trumps-tax-reform-plan-explained/">reduced the top individual income tax rate</a> from 39.6% to 37%. Every Democratic candidate running to replace Trump agrees that it should be raised. Most suggest returning it to 39.6%; a few think it should go higher. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/us/politics/michael-bloomberg-tax-plan.html">Bloomberg proposes</a> an additional 5% surcharge on income above US$5 million, yielding a 44.6% rate, while Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders <a href="https://www.atr.org/bernie-calls-52-tax-rate-government-healthcare">wants a top rate of 52%</a>. </p>
<p>For taxes on lower- and middle-income Americans, the candidates generally say <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/democrats-say-they-wont-raise-middle-class-taxes-but-they-should/2020/01/08/5ec699b4-2044-11ea-a153-dce4b94e4249_story.html">they plan to leave the current rates</a> in place or lower them. </p>
<p>The candidates focus on taxing the wealthy because they say the richest Americans have benefited greatly from U.S. tax policy in the recent past and are no longer paying their fair share. </p>
<p>The question that economists ask when assessing such policies is when do high tax rates have negative economic consequences, such as by discouraging productive work because Uncle Sam takes such a big chunk of each extra dollar they earn. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-do-taxes-affect-economy-long-run">standard economic argument</a> for lower marginal tax rates is that it provides incentives for people to work hard and be productive. But it’s not clear at what rate that happens, and 37% does not seem to be the tipping point. </p>
<p>For perspective, every year from 1940 to 1980, the <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/historical-highest-marginal-income-tax-rates">top marginal tax rate was at least 70%</a>. Yet productivity growth and economic growth <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-6/below-trend-the-us-productivity-slowdown-since-the-great-recession.htm">were both robust over this period</a>.</p>
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<h2>Investment income</h2>
<p>A related issue is should investment income, such as dividends, capital gains and carried interest, be taxed at a lower rate than labor income. </p>
<p>Currently, investment income is taxed at a top rate of 20% – as opposed to the 37% tax on labor income – with other rate differentials at lower incomes. The Democratic candidates all want to end the practice of taxing investment income at a lower rate than labor income. </p>
<p>I believe there are <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40411.pdf">good reasons</a> to do so, as do many other <a href="http://www.urban.org/publications/904606.html">economists</a>.</p>
<p>Primarily, a lower tax rate incentivizes the wealthy to <a href="https://www.urban.org/research/publication/tax-reform-tax-arbitrage-and-taxation-carried-interest">find ways to convert earnings</a> from labor into capital income to reduce their tax bill. And believe it or not, private equity managers who typically earn hundreds of millions of dollars a year have all their earnings classified as capital income, cutting their tax bill in half.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314162/original/file-20200207-27548-rjmwvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314162/original/file-20200207-27548-rjmwvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314162/original/file-20200207-27548-rjmwvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314162/original/file-20200207-27548-rjmwvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314162/original/file-20200207-27548-rjmwvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314162/original/file-20200207-27548-rjmwvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314162/original/file-20200207-27548-rjmwvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Buttigieg and Klobuchar both favor raising the corporate tax rate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Corporate income tax</h2>
<p>The 2017 Trump tax bill also cut corporate taxes, from 35% to 21%, with proponents <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/20/trump-says-corporate-tax-cut-is-biggest-factor-in-gop-tax-plan.html">arguing it would spur business investment</a> and economic growth. </p>
<p>Several studies, however, <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2019/08/08/us-business-investment-rising-market-power-mutes-tax-cut-impact/">found little</a> or <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/ib364-corporate-tax-rates-and-economic-growth">no evidence</a> of this impact. </p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55824">the 2017 tax bill reduced</a> corporate tax revenues as a share of GDP to 1.1% from the 50-year average of 1.9%, putting a larger proportion of the tax burden on individuals. </p>
<p>This is why all the Democratic <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/finance/467549-2020-dems-set-sights-on-corporate-tax-hike">candidates propose raising</a> corporate tax rates. Some, such as former Vice President Joe Biden and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, want to raise the rate some, while others, such as Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, would restore the pre-Trump 35% rate. </p>
<p>Similar to the individual tax, finding the optimal corporate tax rate can be tricky. </p>
<p>Generally speaking, <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/ib364-corporate-tax-rates-and-economic-growth/">changes to corporate taxes</a> have little impact on the U.S. economy, so raising them shouldn’t slow growth. </p>
<p>Higher corporate taxes do, however, <a href="https://ntanet.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Session1237_Paper1665_FullPaper_1.pdf">reduce stock prices</a>, since corporations will pay more money to the government and less to shareholders as dividends, thereby reducing incentives to own stock shares. This can hurt less wealthy Americans with investments in retirement plans and mutual funds.</p>
<h2>A wealth tax</h2>
<p>Sens. Sanders and Warren argue the super wealthy should pay even higher taxes to reduce inequality – and to cover their bigger spending plans. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/29/business/economy/economy-politics-survey.html">Most Americans agree</a>.</p>
<p>Warren <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wealth-tax-bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-difference-explained-chart-2019-10">wants to slap</a> a 2% tax on net worth in excess of $50 million, and a 3% tax on fortunes in excess of $1 billion.</p>
<p>Sanders <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/24/20880941/bernie-sanders-wealth-tax-warren-2020">would go further</a>. He suggests a tax of 1% on net worth over $32 million that would get progressively higher, rising to 8% on wealth over $10 billion. </p>
<p>Economists <a href="https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2019/article/would-elizabeth-warren-s-wealth-tax-actually-work-intended">are not huge wealth tax fans</a>. They think it would spark tax evasion and, for this reason, not likely lead to much additional revenue.</p>
<p>More than that, a wealth tax <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-slaverys-lingering-stain-on-the-us-constitution-spoils-elizabeth-warrens-wealth-tax-proposal-for-now-110964">may be unconstitutional</a>. Even if Congress were to pass such a tax, it would immediately be challenged in the courts. The Supreme Court would likely hold it unconstitutional, as was the case with the individual income tax, which required the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendment/amendment-xvi">16th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution</a> be passed before it could be implemented. </p>
<h2>Carbon tax</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/carbon-tax-320">Carbon taxes</a> are taxes on polluting activities, such as the use of gasoline or electricity. </p>
<p><a href="https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2019/article/tax-could-save-world">Economists</a> across the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/01/17/this-is-not-controversial-bipartisan-group-economists-calls-carbon-tax/">political spectrum</a> tend to support taxing carbon because it creates incentives for consumers and businesses to spend money in ways that reduce carbon emissions and slow climate change.</p>
<p>It would, however, increase the cost of driving, flying and heating one’s home. It would also increase the price of all goods transported long distances and whose production requires a good deal of energy. This regressive side to the tax is why Sanders doesn’t support carbon taxes – though most of the other candidates do. </p>
<p>As an example, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/8/26/20833263/andrew-yang-climate-plan">Yang’s $40 per ton tax</a> would cost the average American family $2,000 a year. Besides helping the environment, the entrepreneur says a carbon tax would help finance his basic income guarantee.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314164/original/file-20200207-27529-1v6tf3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314164/original/file-20200207-27529-1v6tf3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314164/original/file-20200207-27529-1v6tf3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314164/original/file-20200207-27529-1v6tf3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314164/original/file-20200207-27529-1v6tf3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314164/original/file-20200207-27529-1v6tf3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314164/original/file-20200207-27529-1v6tf3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yang supports a $40 per ton carbon tax.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Mary Altaffer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Turning the page</h2>
<p>With few exceptions, the Democrats running for president seem to be on the same basic tax policy page. </p>
<p>They all want to raise more revenue by taxing capital income at the same rate as labor income and increasing rates on the wealthy and on corporations. They differ over the extra taxes, like on carbon, wealth and financial transactions. </p>
<p>Whatever combination of these tax changes might be enacted, if a Democrat wins the White House in 2020 and Congress is controlled by the Democrats, the rich will almost certainly lose their large gains under Trump.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Pressman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Every Democratic presidential candidate plans to raise taxes on wealthier Americans and corporations, but they differ in how to get there.Steven Pressman, Professor of Economics, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1231362019-12-18T13:51:19Z2019-12-18T13:51:19ZDemocratic presidential hopefuls are promising to ramp up funding for public schools<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307278/original/file-20191216-123987-qp37l3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Elizabeth Warren would make universal preschool a federal priority.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Elizabeth-Warren/b6ee9e69c6d541a399ddcc646a1df726/9/0">AP Photo/Keith Srakocic</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Democratic presidential candidates are proposing bold <a href="http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/campaign-k-12/2019/09/presidential-candidates-education-2020-teachers-student-debt-school-safety-funding.html">new approaches</a> to the <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/overview/fed/role.html">federal government’s role</a> in public education. Former Vice President <a href="https://joebiden.com/education/">Joe Biden</a>, Sen. <a href="https://berniesanders.com/en/issues/reinvest-in-public-education/">Bernie Sanders</a> and Sen. <a href="https://corybooker.com/issues/public-education/corys-plan-for-a-great-public-school-in-every-community-and-opportunity-for-every-child/">Cory Booker</a> want to triple the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/EDFP_a_00103">US$15 billion</a> spent annually on <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/programs/titleiparta/index.html">Title I</a>, a program that sends federal dollars to high-poverty school districts.</p>
<p>Sen. <a href="https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/public-education">Elizabeth Warren</a> wants to go further and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2019/10/22/what-elizabeth-warrens-k-12-plan-reveals-about-education-politics-today/">quadruple funding for that same program</a>. She also wants to make quality <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/2/22/18234606/warren-child-care-universal-2020">child care and preschool</a> affordable or free for all American families with kids, along with <a href="https://www.foodservicedirector.com/operations/sen-elizabeth-warren-announces-plan-offer-free-universal-school-meals">free breakfast and lunch</a> for all public school students.</p>
<p>Other candidates have similar proposals to substantially increase funding for public education, including former Housing Secretary <a href="https://issues.juliancastro.com/people-first-education/">Julian Castro</a>, Sen. <a href="https://medium.com/@AmyforAmerica/amys-first-100-days-b7adf9f91262">Amy Klobuchar</a> and Mayor <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2019/12/07/mayor-pete-buttigieg-k-12-education-plan-charter-schools/">Pete Buttigieg</a>.</p>
<p>Funding increases of this scale would transform the <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-role-in-education-has-a-long-history-74807">federal role in education policy</a>, making it easier for school districts to <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/teacher-pay-gap-2018/">pay teachers higher wages</a> while <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-of-a-difference-does-the-number-of-kids-in-a-classroom-make-125703">reducing class sizes</a>. This focus on funding would mark a departure from previous administrations, which instead emphasized policies intended to increase <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/nclb/landing.jhtml">accountability</a> and strengthen <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/programs/racetothetop/index.html">teacher evaluation</a>.</p>
<p>As a scholar of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=F8pdFSgAAAAJ&hl=en">school finance</a>, I study the role of resources in schools. The <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w25368">research</a> is clear that <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20150249">spending more</a> <a href="https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.1162/EDFP_a_00236">on students</a> over the long haul would bring about <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/131/1/157/2461148">long-term benefits</a>.</p>
<h2>Only 8%</h2>
<p>The federal government spends a total of about <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_235.10.asp?current=yes">$55 billion per year on K-12</a> education, in addition to outlays for <a href="http://nieer.org/state-preschool-yearbooks">early childhood</a> and post-secondary programs like loans and grants for <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2017/03/07/federal-support-for-higher-education-comes-from-spending-programs-and-the-tax-code">college tuition</a>. This amounts to around $1,000 per K-12 student and <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_235.10.asp?current=yes">just 8%</a> of the total $700 billion it costs to run the nation’s public schools, which are mostly funded by state and local tax dollars.</p>
<p>Federal funding has <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_235.10.asp?current=yes">never surpassed 10%</a> of total public school funding, except from 2010 to 2012 when the federal government sought to reduce the <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/policy/gen/leg/recovery/implementation.html">school spending cuts</a> <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/688011/summary">brought about during the Great Recession</a>.</p>
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<p>The federal government has historically exerted influence in nonmonetary ways. For example, under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-role-in-education-has-a-long-history-74807">No Child Left Behind Act</a> of 2001, President George W. Bush’s administration relied on standardized tests to hold schools accountable for student achievement. Schools that failed to make yearly progress on test scores faced <a href="https://education.findlaw.com/curriculum-standards-school-funding/what-happens-when-a-school-fails-to-make-adequate-yearly-progress.html">serious repercussions</a>, such as replacing the school staff or reopening the school as a charter school.</p>
<p>President Barack Obama’s Education Department used <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/programs/racetothetop/index.html">Race to the Top</a> – under which states competed for federal grants through a point system – and <a href="https://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/nclb-waivers-timeline-and-glossary-of-terms.html">other initiatives</a> to get states to adopt a specific set of policies regarding teacher hiring, promotion and dismissal that the Education Department said would help schools employ better teachers overall.</p>
<p>Obama also signed the <a href="https://www.ed.gov/essa">Every Student Succeeds Act</a> into law <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-every-student-succeeds-act-still-leaves-most-vulnerable-kids-behind-46247">in 2015</a>. It scaled back many of these policies and returned authority over accountability back to <a href="https://www.the74million.org/article/this-weeks-essa-news-maryland-releases-second-year-of-school-ratings-school-climate-surveys-emerging-as-accountability-measure-looking-ahead-to-reauthorization-more/">individual states</a>.</p>
<p>These initiatives have two things in common. All of them have been longer on mandates than money, and it’s unclear that any have worked. Some <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10009-1.html">major studies</a> <a href="https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/pubs/20174001/">failed to find</a> substantial impacts and educators have <a href="http://blogs.edweek.org/teachers/teaching_now/2019/10/most_states_have_walked_back_tough_teacher_evaluation_policies_report.html">largely opposed</a> using student test scores to drive high-stakes staffing decisions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307279/original/file-20191216-124004-z29661.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Testing, testing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Washington-Legislature/f206331a6ae14c048d718d5dc8dc8b2e/4/0">AP Photo/Ted S. Warren</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Graphic concerns</h2>
<p>One source of opposition to increasing spending on public schools is a <a href="http://www.shankerinstitute.org/blog/we-cant-graph-our-way-out-research-education-spending">now</a>-<a href="https://schoolfinance101.wordpress.com/2011/03/02/smart-guy-gates-makes-my-list-of-dumbest-stuff-ive-ever-read/">infamous</a> <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2018/04/13/why-the-school-spending-graph-betsy-devos-is-sharing-doesnt-mean-what-she-says-it-does/">graph</a> that traces the rise of this spending on a per-student basis over the past 40 years, while test scores have remained stagnant. The juxtaposition of these two trend lines, opponents of higher spending say, suggests that more funding is not the answer.</p>
<p>Versions of this chart often appear in <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/public-school-spending-theres-chart">libertarian</a>, <a href="https://www.alec.org/article/increasing-education-spending-equal-higher-test-scores/">conservative</a> and <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bill-gates-school-performance_b_829771">mainstream</a> outlets.</p>
<p>Education Secretary <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2018/04/13/why-the-school-spending-graph-betsy-devos-is-sharing-doesnt-mean-what-she-says-it-does/">Betsy DeVos tweeted</a> a version of the graph and later <a href="https://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/statement-secretary-devos-2019-naep-results">declared</a> that the “gap between the highest- and lowest-performing students is widening, despite $1 trillion in federal spending over 40 years.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"984534888941604864"}"></div></p>
<p>I find DeVos’ statement and the graph she was talking about misleading.</p>
<p>A simple comparison of two trends does not necessarily mean that one causes the other. I also think this line of argument becomes potentially dangerous when policymakers use it to <a href="https://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-education/2016/07/what-the-republican-platform-says-about-education-215401">justify underinvesting in public education</a>.</p>
<h2>More spending on rich kids</h2>
<p>The significant increase in Title I funding Warren, Sanders, Biden and other candidates propose could partly address a problem that all the leading <a href="http://schottfoundation.org/2020-presidential-forum-public-education">Democratic presidential candidates agree</a> requires urgent action: substantial <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102%2F0013189X16670899">funding</a> <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/688011/summary">inequities</a> in public schools.</p>
<p>Despite a widespread stated <a href="https://ccsso.org/resource-library/leading-equity-opportunities-state-education-chiefs">commitment to equity</a>, many states <a href="http://www.shankerinstitute.org/resource/adequacy-and-fairness-state-school-finance-systems">actually spend less</a> in high-poverty school districts than in more affluent communities.</p>
<p>In addition, students of color attend schools that receive, on average, <a href="https://edbuild.org/content/23-billion">$2,200 less per student</a> from state coffers compared with the schools predominantly enrolling white students. </p>
<p>Of course, finding a way to pay for these spending increases through new tax dollars or cuts to other priorities would be a challenge. But there is probably no way to address the challenges facing the nation’s public schools that doesn’t involve significant increases in funding, targeted to places where most students are <a href="https://poverty.ucdavis.edu/faq/how-does-level-education-relate-poverty">growing up in poverty</a>.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Knight receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the W. T. Grant Foundation, the Spencer Foundation, and the American School Counselor Association. </span></em></p>Biden, Sanders, Warren and other candidates are calling for a substantial and unprecedented spending boost.David S. Knight, Assistant Professor of Education Finance and Policy, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1274242019-11-21T05:22:50Z2019-11-21T05:22:50ZDemocrats debate health care, farmers and minimum wage: 4 essential reads – and a chart<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302836/original/file-20191121-515-q2aj72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ten Democratic presidential candidates took the stage in Atlanta on Nov. 20.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Debate/45750a8ae79d4098ad73bb4aa11fe13f/24/0">AP Photo/John Bazemore</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The top candidates vying to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2020 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/20/us/politics/democratic-debate-live.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">took the stage</a> in Atlanta for their fifth televised debate on Nov. 20.</p>
<p>With 10 participants and only two hours to discuss dozens of complicated issues, viewers may have had a hard time keeping up as candidates <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/31/democratic-debate-results-takeaways-1441786">waded into the weeds</a> of their pet policy proposals.</p>
<p>Fortunately, our scholars – who have written <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/2020-us-presidential-election-38597">dozens of articles on the key issues</a> of the 2020 Democratic primary campaign – have you covered. </p>
<p>Here are four economic issues that came up in the Nov. 20 debate, along with four stories from our archive that provide some context to help you evaluate what the candidates said.</p>
<h2>1. Medicare for … whom?</h2>
<p>Voters, especially Democrats, say health care <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/244367/top-issues-voters-healthcare-economy-immigration.aspx">is the top issue heading into 2020</a>. So it’s hardly a surprise that the topic <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/10/15/20914415/democratic-debates-health-care-issues">has dominated</a> the first four debates and was a hot topic in Atlanta. </p>
<p>Several candidates debated “Medicare for all” and how far to go. Mayor Pete Buttigieg pushed his “Medicare for all who want it” proposal, which would offer a government plan while letting people keep their private insurance. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders argued the best way forward is to make everyone sign up for a government-run single-payer system – the main difference between them being how soon to make it happen. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/01/politics/elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all-financing-plan/index.html">sticking point</a> has been the high price tag. Gerald Friedman, an economist at University of Massachusetts Amherst, has crunched the numbers on several different versions of a single-payer health care system and estimates a full-scale plan could cost as much as US$40 trillion over a decade. </p>
<p>But there’s an easier and cheaper way to get to Medicare for all, he writes: Simply <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-could-afford-medicare-for-all-124462">expand the existing Medicare program to everyone</a>. </p>
<p>Medicare’s “limited scope, skimpy benefits and cost-sharing keep costs low,” he writes, yet “it provides meaningful protection against the potentially crippling cost of accident or illness.” </p>
<h2>2. Trade and farmers</h2>
<p>U.S. trade policy has been an important economic topic ever since Trump launched his trade war against China nearly two years ago. It’s also among the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/real_clear_opinion_research/new_poll_shows_health_care_is_voters_top_concern.html">top concerns on voters’ minds</a>.</p>
<p>Soybean farmers in particular <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-costs-factbox/factbox-from-phone-makers-to-farmers-the-toll-of-trumps-trade-wars-idUSKCN1VE00B">have suffered</a> as a result of the trade war. MSNBC moderator Rachel Maddow asked Buttigieg if he’d continue the billions of dollars in farm subsidies the Trump administration has given to soybean and other farmers to offset the pain. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302839/original/file-20191121-496-1micbv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302839/original/file-20191121-496-1micbv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302839/original/file-20191121-496-1micbv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302839/original/file-20191121-496-1micbv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302839/original/file-20191121-496-1micbv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302839/original/file-20191121-496-1micbv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302839/original/file-20191121-496-1micbv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302839/original/file-20191121-496-1micbv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Trump administration has paid billions in aid to farmers struggling under the financial strain of his trade dispute with China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trade-War-Farm-Aid/65b511e75f934e07a33202155d732ae7/22/0">AP Photo/Dylan Lovan</a></span>
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<p>The South Bend, Indiana, mayor said he would support farmers but emphasized that the subsidies don’t make up for the costs of the trade war. “I don’t think this president cares one bit about these farmers,” he said. </p>
<p>Ian Sheldon, a professor of agricultural economics who studies international commodity markets at The Ohio State University, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-soybeans-became-chinas-most-powerful-weapon-in-trumps-trade-war-118088">describes how soybeans became China’s biggest weapon</a> in the trade war. </p>
<p>“The importance of China as a market for soybeans has been driven by an explosion in demand for meat as consumers switch from a diet dominated by rice to one where pork, poultry and beef play an important part,” he explains.</p>
<h2>3. Lifting the minimum wage</h2>
<p>Senators Cory Booker and Sanders brought up the need to raise the minimum wage. Critics of doing so argue it hurts small businesses. </p>
<p>But since New York City lifted the minimum wage to $15 per hour nearly a year ago, the restaurant industry in New York City has continued to thrive.</p>
<p>Nicole Hallett, an associate professor of law at the University at Buffalo SUNY who studies the minimum wage, <a href="https://theconversation.com/raising-the-minimum-wage-in-restaurants-could-be-a-win-for-everyone-125036">explains why</a>. </p>
<p>“A pay increase for low-wage workers doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game,” she writes. “In fact, the evidence suggests that everyone can win.”</p>
<h2>4. Life without paid family leave</h2>
<p>Many of the candidates support requiring companies to offer their employees paid family leave. </p>
<p>When the issue came up at the debate, entrepreneur Andrew Yang noted that the U.S. is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/switzerland-ranked-as-best-country-for-womens-rights-oecd/">one of only two countries</a> that doesn’t mandate paid family leave. Senators Amy Klobuchar and Kamala Harris agreed on the need for a policy but disagreed over how many months to offer – three versus six. </p>
<p>Darby Saxbe, a psychologist at the University of Southern California – Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/paid-family-leave-is-an-investment-in-public-health-not-a-handout-108323">shows just how little parental leave</a> most Americans currently have and explains the significant stress it causes families. </p>
<p>“Like many windows of dynamic developmental change, the transition to parenthood is a time of transformation that can spur growth – but also brings vulnerability,” she writes. </p>
<h2>Chart: Equal pay for women</h2>
<p>Several of the candidates cited statistics about how much women make compared with men. </p>
<p>Michele Gilman of the University of Baltimore <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-women-still-earn-a-lot-less-than-men-109128">ran the numbers for us</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="h4yVt" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/h4yVt/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives and an updated version of an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-economists-guide-to-watching-the-atlanta-2020-presidential-debate-3-essential-reads-127417">originally published on Nov. 20</a>.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127424/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Learn more about the economic issues that were debated by the Democratic presidential candidates in Atlanta on Nov. 20.Bryan Keogh, Managing EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1269182019-11-14T19:09:19Z2019-11-14T19:09:19ZVital Signs. Might straight down the middle be the source of our economic success?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301696/original/file-20191114-77291-1az02dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=920%2C559%2C1764%2C984&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australian roads are straight, as has been the trajectory of our economic policy for more than 30 years.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What do a billionaire, a former vice president, and a US democratic socialist have to do with Australia’s nearly three-decade run of economic growth?</p>
<p>More than you might think.</p>
<p>The race for the Democratic Party’s 2020 Presidential nomination is far from over – in fact voting in the first state (Iowa) doesn’t even begin until January. But Senator Elizabeth Warren has become the front-runner in betting markets and national polls, pulling ahead of former vice president Joe Biden.</p>
<p>Warren is running on a “democratic socialist” platform of banning private health insurance, imposing a wealth tax and more rigorously examining proposed trade agreements. Biden is much more centrist – he was Barack Obama’s vice president after all – but he is struggling to maintain the lead he once held.</p>
<p>This has a number of people freaked out. Among them is former New York mayor (and former Republican) Mike Bloomberg, who has filed paperwork to get himself into the Democratic primary race.</p>
<p>Bloomberg is a pro-market, socially liberal, three-term mayor of New York. He amassed a US$50 billion fortune by creating the category-killing <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/company/stories/understanding-bloomberg-and-the-terminal/">Bloomberg terminal</a> for financial data and securities trading. </p>
<p>He has taken progressive stands on gun control, gay rights and women’s reproductive rights. </p>
<p>And on climate change he spent half a billion dollars on climate mitigation projects as well as campaigning with the environment group <a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/">Sierra Club</a> (successfully) for coal mines to be closed. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-us-democrats-thats-taking-place-before-our-eyes-121298">Vital Signs: the battle for the soul of the US Democrats that's taking place before our eyes</a>
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<p>Bloomberg’s path to the Democratic nomination is far from assured, but in Australia someone like him would be in the mould of prime ministers past.</p>
<p>And that tells us something important about our internationally unusual long run of economic growth.</p>
<h2>Straight down the middle</h2>
<p>Since Bill Hayden became Labor (and opposition) leader in 1977 and put to rest the economic upheaval of the Whitlam era, Australia’s two major political parties have maintained, for the most part, staunchly centrist economic policies. They’ve combined the virtues of markets with a strong social safety set.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/hawke-was-our-larrikin-but-also-our-reformer-117308">Hawke-Keating government famously opened up the Australian economy</a> to the world: floating the Australian dollar, deregulating the banking system, slashing tariffs, and privatising sleepy state-owned enterprises.</p>
<p>John Howard not only continued this legacy but introduced the Goods and Services Tax – a much more efficient form of taxation than had existed – and successfully negotiated the <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/ausfta/Pages/australia-united-states-fta.aspx">Australia-US Free Trade Agreement</a>. </p>
<p>And though the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government may have lacked stability, it did not lack major economic achievements. </p>
<p>Rudd and then Treasury boss Ken Henry <a href="http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/richardholden/assets/did-labor-really-save-us-from-the-gfc-we-ask-an-expert.pdf">acted decisively with stimulus and bank guarantees</a> to avoid the economic disaster that hit most of the rest of the world.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1239&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1239&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1239&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Total annual greenhouse gas emissions excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jan/09/australias-emissions-are-rising-its-time-for-this-government-to-quick-pretending">Greg Jericho, Guardian</a></span>
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<p>Gillard introduced a carbon tax that had an almost immediate effect in reducing Australia’s emissions.</p>
<p>While the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government’s stance on climate change has been rightly criticised (often by yours truly), it has continued to enact free trade agreements, the most recent of which, the <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/negotiations/rcep/Pages/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership.aspx">Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership</a>, might be <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-trumps-tariffs-legal-under-the-wto-it-seems-not-and-they-are-overturning-70-years-of-global-leadership-121425">truly transformational</a>.</p>
<h2>Sometimes veering to the sides</h2>
<p>Although that centrism has served Australia well socially and economically, there have been moments where policy looked like it would veer away from the centre.</p>
<p>Labor opposed the goods and services tax. The current government has flirted with government guarantees for new coal-fired power plants, which was a policy more in the spirit of Marx and Lenin than Howard and Costello.</p>
<h2>Holding the centre</h2>
<p>The current depressing state of the Australian economy (pun intended) might provide the biggest test yet to centrist economic policy. </p>
<p>Wage growth is sluggish (Wednesday’s figures showed annual growth slipping from a historically low <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inextricably-linked-wage-growth-flatlines-as-report-shows-jobless-rate-hurting-economy-20191113-p53a94.html">2.3% to 2.2%</a>) and unemployment is climbing (Thursday’s figures showed the unemployment rate climbing from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Main%20Features1Oct%202019?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=Oct%202019&num=&view=">5.2% to 5.3%</a>).</p>
<p>There’s pressure from both the left and the right to “do something”.</p>
<p>Cutting immigration, moving away from free trade, propping up failing industries, or offering selective wage rises to particular sectors (such as childcare workers) are among the “somethings” that have been on the table or partially implemented.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-think-less-immigration-will-solve-australias-problems-youre-wrong-but-neither-will-more-115136">If you think less immigration will solve Australia's problems, you're wrong; but neither will more</a>
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<p>The Hawke-Keating and Howard-Costello governments sustained centrist economic policy for more than two decades. </p>
<p>They did it not only through a series of sound policy choices, but also through a narrative about the virtues of markets coupled with a social safety net.</p>
<p>It’s a narrative under threat. In Australia it hasn’t been drowned out yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s secret weapon has been faith in market outcomes combined with a strong social safety set.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1250672019-10-10T06:04:51Z2019-10-10T06:04:51ZWayne Swan warns US Democrats not to fall into Labor’s trap of overloaded agenda<p>Labor party president Wayne Swan has warned that the United States Democrats could be at risk of the overloaded agenda trap that helped defeat the ALP in May.</p>
<p>Writing in the American progressive journal Democracy Swan, a former treasurer, says that in Labor’s loss, the size of its agenda was more decisive than its shape.</p>
<p>“Labor had too many individual policies that, while fully funded, couldn’t be effectively communicated.” Thus opponents could characterise the ALP agenda as big spending and big taxing.</p>
<p>Swan says that given the Australian experience, he feels “some queasiness” at the array of policies being discussed in the emerging Democratic primaries.</p>
<p>“The policies are all urgent and correct, but they are too many, offering attack angles beyond a Republican strategist’s wildest dreams.</p>
<p>"The shape is right – but the sizing is wrong.</p>
<p>"I may be worried about nothing if the Democratic primary process does its job of whittling down the agenda to something more manageable, but I fear for the consequences if the Democratic primaries become a series of purity tests on policy that saddle an eventual nominee with too broad a policy terrain to be adequately defended from Trump and the Murdoch State Media.”</p>
<p>Swan writes that experience in Australia, the US and the recent Scandinavian elections showed the populist right’s rise was hollowing out the centre left’s support among working class and lower-income people.</p>
<p>This was happening “when the right’s solutions only exacerbate the root causes of people’s justified anger at the political system: austerity, the destruction of social welfare, and the turbocharging of inequality.</p>
<p>"Re-channelling this anger toward immigrants and the already disadvantaged is proving a more durable political tactic than anyone expected.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-might-labor-win-in-2022-the-answers-can-all-be-found-in-the-lessons-of-2019-117742">How might Labor win in 2022? The answers can all be found in the lessons of 2019</a>
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<p>Swan argues that progressive parties have the harder time of it when voters are distrustful.</p>
<p>“In an era of toxic distrust toward politicians and government itself, progressive parties suffer more because we promise more.</p>
<p>"Labor’s agenda was large; beyond a certain point, your ideas just end up jostling for limited political airspace and for a claim on the trust of voters.”</p>
<p>Faced with this “terrible conundrum” progressives can’t do less, according to Swan.</p>
<p>“We cannot retreat on either the shape or the content of our agenda. But size is another thing.</p>
<p>"Like it or not – and I don’t like it one bit – we are living in a world where the right’s success in demonising the whole political class depletes the reservoir of voter trust progressive parties rely on to shape and win a mandate for change.</p>
<p>"This means that we must find a way of communicating our vision through a shortlist of high-profile, easily campaignable policies.</p>
<p>"We must also acknowledge that the agenda can only be as large as the voters’ trust in the leader and the party to deliver it,” he writes.</p>
<p>“In a world of diminished voter trust, progressives must start with a core set of saleable, intelligent reforms that build political capital for the next tranche of reform, and the one after that.”</p>
<h2>Labor offered ‘handouts rather than hope’: Richard Marles</h2>
<p>Labor’s deputy leader Richard Marles says Labor last votes among low income people at the election by offering parts of its traditional base “handouts rather than hope”. </p>
<p>Addressing the John Curtin Research Centre on Thursday night, Marles said these people “simply didn’t feel we went to the election offering them the tools to move forward, but instead we wanted them to settle for a range of subsidies”.</p>
<p>Labor’s financial relief for cancer sufferers and dental treatment for pensioners got lost “because at our heart we didn’t offer all Australians a root and branch growth and productivity agenda,” he said. </p>
<p>At the next election Labor “must win as the party of broad-based economic growth, high productivity, secure work and fair pay”. </p>
<p>Labor won “when we marry productivity-boosting reforms with fair reward for the working people who deliver our national prosperity”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Writing in the American progressive journal Democracy, Swan, a former treasurer, warned that the US Democrats could be at risk of the overloaded agenda trap that helped defeat the ALP in May.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1239892019-09-26T04:49:19Z2019-09-26T04:49:19ZWarren placed second after Biden, as Trump’s ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?<p>Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">RealClearPolitics</a> Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%, Pete Buttigieg at 5.8% and Kamala Harris at 5.0%. </p>
<p>No other Democrat candidates have more than 3% support. And the last three polls average to a tie between Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden.</p>
<p>Since the debate, there have been gains for Biden, Warren and Buttigieg, and a continued slump for Harris. After the first debate on June 26 to 27, Harris surged from about 7% to 15%. Now, she has lost all that support and can no longer be considered a top-tier candidate.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-democratic-presidential-primaries-biden-leading-followed-by-sanders-warren-harris-and-will-trump-be-beaten-120340">US Democratic presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?</a>
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<p>The contests that will select the Democratic presidential candidate will be held between February and June 2020, with four states permitted to hold contests in February. </p>
<p>Iowa (February 3) and New Hampshire (February 11) are the first two states, so doing well in one of them is important. To win any delegates, candidates need at least 15% in a particular state or congressional district.</p>
<p>There have been three Iowa polls conducted since the debate, including one by the highly regarded Selzer poll. The <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html">RealClearPolitics average</a> shows Warren surging into the Iowa lead with 23.0%, followed by Biden at 20.3%, Sanders 12.0%, Buttigieg 11.3% and Harris 5.3%. The one post-debate poll in <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html">New Hampshire</a> also has Warren leading with 27%, followed by Biden at 25%, Sanders 12% and Buttigieg 10%.</p>
<p>Biden is disadvantaged in <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population/">Iowa</a> and <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-hampshire-population/">New Hampshire</a> because these states’ populations are almost all white. CNN analyst <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/17/politics/black-democrat-demographics/index.html">Harry Enten</a> says Biden’s strongest support comes from black voters. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-the-democrats-bitter-race-to-find-a-candidate-to-beat-trump-might-elizabeth-warren-hold-the-key-122461">In the Democrats' bitter race to find a candidate to beat Trump, might Elizabeth Warren hold the key?</a>
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<p>In South Carolina, where black voters made up <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/sc/Dem">61% of the 2016 Democratic primary</a> electorate according to exit polls, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html">Biden leads</a> by over 20 points, though none of those polls were taken since the debate. South Carolina votes on February 29.</p>
<p>The next Democratic debate will be on October 14, with the same rules for participation as in the September debate. At least two more <a href="https://politicalwire.com/2019/09/24/tulsi-gabbard-qualifies-for-next-debate/">candidates will qualify</a>, and this will mean a two-night debate with the 12 candidates split over these nights. The participation threshold has been increased for November and further debates.</p>
<h2>Trump’s ratings rise, likely due to the economy</h2>
<p>In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/">FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate</a>, Donald Trump’s ratings are currently 42.9% approve, 52.8% disapprove (that equates to a net -9.9%) with all polls. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-trails-leading-democrats-by-record-margins-plus-brexit-latest-and-the-lnp-leads-in-queensland-122783">Trump trails leading Democrats by record margins, plus Brexit latest and the LNP leads in Queensland</a>
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<p>With polls of registered or likely voters, his ratings are 43.8% approve, 52.1% disapprove (net -8.3%). Trump’s approval has not been higher since November 2018. But since my September 5 article on the polls, Trump’s net approval has risen about three points.</p>
<p>In August, there were prominent predictions of a recession, and the <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=Dow&oq=Dow&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2j69i60j69i61j69i60.1327j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">Dow Jones</a> tanked. In September, there has been far less recession talk, and the Dow recovered its August losses. The economy likely explains the recovery in Trump’s ratings.</p>
<h2>Will Trump’s ratings take damage from the impeachment controversy?</h2>
<p>On September 24, Democrats launched an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/24/pelosi-impeachment-inquiry-trump-ukraine">impeachment inquiry</a> over allegations Trump attempted to get incriminating material on Biden from the Ukraine, including by threatening to withhold funds. </p>
<p>The next day, a White House memo of Trump’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/25/ukraine-trump-meeting-impeachment-inquiry-whistleblower-conversation">phone conversation</a> with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy showed Trump asked for “a favour”, and for Zelenskiy to “look into” Biden. </p>
<p>I do not believe this affair will do lasting or serious damage to Trump’s ratings: the better-educated voters already detest him, and the lower-educated will be far more concerned with the economy.</p>
<p>Removing a president from office requires a majority in the House and a two-thirds majority in the Senate. Democrats control the House, but Republicans have a 53-47 Senate majority. So there is very little chance of Trump being removed before the November 2020 election.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/National.html">RealClearPolitics</a> averages, Trump trails Biden by 7.7 points (9.9 points in my September 5 article). He trails Warren by 4.0 (4.1 previously) and Sanders by 4.8 (6.0). </p>
<p>Biden’s electability argument is enhanced by these figures. The pro-Trump Rasmussen polling company showed Trump leading Biden by four, but did not poll other match-ups. Without this Rasmussen poll, Biden would be placed 10.0 points ahead.</p>
<h2>Why is Biden doing much better against Trump than other Democrats?</h2>
<p>I think a key reason is he sometimes says things that are not <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/21/20877240/joe-biden-iowa-glaad-lgbtq-forum-2020-presidential-campaign-treatment-women">politically correct</a>, which the media construe as gaffes. </p>
<p>But those with a lower level of education are very dubious about the values of the “inner city elites”. Saying things the elite disagree with probably makes some Trump 2016 voters more comfortable supporting Biden than Warren.</p>
<p>There have been four major upsets in the US, UK and Australia in the last three years: the June 2016 Brexit referendum, Trump’s November 2016 victory, the UK Labour surge that produced the current hung parliament in June 2017, and the Australian Coalition’s triumph in May 2019.</p>
<p>My theory is the Remain campaign, Hillary Clinton and Australian Labor performed worse than expected because they were all seen as too close to the “inner city elites”. </p>
<p>In contrast, UK Labour adopted a pro-Brexit position before the 2017 election, and this assisted them as they were not seen as serving elite opinion.</p>
<p>To win elections, perhaps the left needs to break free of elite opinion in ways that do not compromise its core agenda.</p>
<h2>UK Supreme Court rules prorogation unlawful</h2>
<p>On September 24, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/24/boris-johnson-flies-back-to-face-mps-fury-after-court-ruling">UK Supreme Court</a> – the highest UK court – ruled the prorogation of parliament was illegal. The House of Commons resumed sitting the next day. Had parliament still been prorogued, the Commons would not have sat until October 14.</p>
<p>With both parliament and the courts hostile to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, it is unlikely he can deliver Brexit by October 31 as he has promised. </p>
<p>As I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/09/12/brexit-minus-seven-weeks-procrastinating-parliament/">The Poll Bludger</a> in mid-September, parliament bears a large portion of responsibility for the Brexit shambles as it can only agree to procrastinate. It cannot agree to any method to resolve Brexit.</p>
<h2>Israel, Austria, Portugal, Poland and Canada elections</h2>
<p>I recently wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/09/19/brexit-israeli-election-results-upcoming-elections/">The Poll Bludger</a> about the September 17 Israeli election results and said it is unlikely anyone can form a government. I also wrote about upcoming elections in Austria (September 29), Portugal (October 6), Poland (October 13) and Canada (October 21).<br>
All these countries except Canada use proportional representation, while Canada uses <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting">first-past-the-post</a> after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wimped on electoral reform after winning the October 2015 election.</p>
<h2>Australian Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition</h2>
<p>In the last Newspoll, conducted September 5-8 from a sample of 1,660, the Coalition led by 51-49, unchanged since mid-August. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 43% Coalition (up one), 35% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (up one and their best in Newspoll since March 2016) and 5% One Nation (up one). </p>
<p>Scott Morrison’s net approval was +10, up four points, while Anthony Albanese slumped into negative net approval at -5, down 12 points. Morrison led as better PM by 48-28 (48-30 previously). Figures from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/09/08/newspoll-51-49-coalition-2/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123989/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Joe Biden continues to front the Democratic primaries race and leads Donald Trump by eight points. But it’s not likely the latest impeachment controversy will damage Trump’s ratings.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1194232019-06-28T13:38:13Z2019-06-28T13:38:13ZFighting words for a New Gilded Age - Democratic candidates are sounding a lot like Teddy Roosevelt<p>There was a Republican on the Democratic Party debate stage – a Progressive Republican who sometimes liked to “speak softly, and carry a big stick.” Did you notice him?</p>
<p>“When I say that I am for the square deal,” <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/new-nationalism-speech/">said</a> the politician, “I mean not merely that I stand for fair play under the present rules of the game, but that I stand for having those rules changed so as to work for a more substantial equality of opportunity.”</p>
<p>You would be forgiven if you confused President Theodore Roosevelt’s 1910 speech for something said by one of the candidates running in the Democratic Party presidential primary in 2019. </p>
<p>Ours is the <a href="https://www.vox.com/first-person/2019/4/1/18286084/gilded-age-income-inequality-robber-baron">New Gilded Age</a> of ostentatious, unaccountable wealth and growing inequality, and current politicians sound a lot like their predecessors. The Gilded Age – the name given to the period after the Civil War to about 1900 – was characterized by massive industrialization and wealth accumulation in the hands of the few and at the expense of the many. “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/robber-baron">Robber barons</a>” like J.P. Morgan, Andrew Carnegie, Andrew W. Mellon and John D. Rockefeller controlled entire segments of the economy and were answerable to no one. Roosevelt sought to reign them in.</p>
<p>There are generational and policy differences between today’s Democratic candidates, but all 20 who made it onto the debate stage over two nights in Miami professed a Rooseveltian understanding of the ills facing the nation. </p>
<p>And – though no one used the term exactly – all promised Americans <a href="https://www.theodorerooseveltcenter.org/Learn-About-TR/TR-Encyclopedia/Politics%20and%20Government/The%20Square%20Deal">what Roosevelt promised the country</a>: a new “square deal.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281772/original/file-20190628-94724-1yta1zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Theodore Roosevelt in 1910.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdownload.shutterstock.com%2Fgatekeeper%2FW3siZSI6MTU2MTc1MTA1MiwiYyI6Il9waG90b19zZXNzaW9uX2lkIiwiZGMiOiJpZGxfMjM5Mzk5MDIwIiwiayI6InBob3RvLzIzOTM5OTAyMC9odWdlLmpwZyIsIm0iOjEsImQiOiJzaHV0dGVyc3RvY2stbWVkaWEifSwib0FKVnl1eW9MOXF5MUVOTGNVcXJpTjdza1hjIl0%2Fshutterstock_239399020.jpg&pi=33421636&m=239399020&src=uZ5dNi2p4wz8FID7G6flOQ-1-1">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Control ‘the mighty commercial forces’</h2>
<p>According to Democrats, the ills of America today, like the ones in Roosevelt’s era, can be traced to unrestrained capitalism and corruption. </p>
<p>As Roosevelt said in 1910, <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/new-nationalism-speech/">“special interests” exerted a “sinister influence”</a> over the government. To fight corruption, he said, “the citizens of the United States must effectively control the mighty commercial forces which they have called into being.” </p>
<p>Roosevelt would take political power away from corporations because “there can be no effective control of corporations while their political activity remains.” Ending corruption would “be neither a short nor an easy task,” but, Roosevelt promised, “it can be done.”</p>
<p>And so he did. Roosevelt instituted regulations on corporations in order to balance the interests of the people with those of capitalism.</p>
<p>Roosevelt’s solutions to reining in abusive corporations should <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/full-transcript-first-democratic-primary-debate-2019-n1022816">sound familiar to those who watched the Democratic debates</a>: conserving natural resources, controlling corporations through regulations and protecting consumers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281779/original/file-20190628-94704-dnigsg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Gilded Age political cartoon, ‘The protectors of our industries,’ showing prominent industrialists sitting on the backs of workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/resource/cph.3g03108/">Library of Congress; Bernhard Gillam, artist</a></span>
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<h2>Echo chamber</h2>
<p>The Democratic candidates appear to share Roosevelt’s diagnosis of the problems facing the nation. </p>
<p>Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren opened the two-night debates with an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/27/transcript-night-one-first-democratic-debate-annotated/">echo of Roosevelt</a>. </p>
<p>“When you’ve got a government, when you’ve got an economy that does great for those with money and isn’t doing great for everyone else,” said Warren, “that is corruption, pure and simple. We need to call it out. We need to attack it head on. And we need to make structural change in our government, in our economy and in our country.” </p>
<p>Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders likewise opened the second night’s debate with a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/28/transcript-night-first-democratic-debate/">echo of Roosevelt</a>. </p>
<p>“We have three people in this country owning more wealth than the bottom half of America,” said Sanders, “while 500,000 people are sleeping out on the streets today. We think it is time for change, real change.” </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281783/original/file-20190628-94684-6v6hur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren at the first night’s debate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Debate/1f580eeaa5d24900a76b458b2bcca5b7/9/0">AP/Wilfredo Lee</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Former Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/27/transcript-night-one-first-democratic-debate-annotated/">echoed Roosevelt</a>: “Right now, we have a system that favors those who can pay for access and outcomes. That’s how you explain an economy that is rigged to corporations and to the very wealthiest.” </p>
<p>New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/27/transcript-night-one-first-democratic-debate-annotated/">echoed Roosevelt</a>, “I think we have a serious problem in our country with corporate consolidation. And you see the evidence of that in how dignity is being stripped from labor, and we have people that work full-time jobs and still can’t make a living wage.” </p>
<p>Former Vice President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/28/transcript-night-first-democratic-debate/">echoed Roosevelt</a>, “Look, Donald Trump thinks Wall Street built America. Ordinary, middle-class Americans built America,” said Biden. “What I’m saying is that we’ve got to be straightforward. We have to make sure we understand that to return dignity to the middle class.” </p>
<p>California Sen. Kamala Harris <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/28/transcript-night-first-democratic-debate/">echoed Roosevelt</a>, “Working families need support and need to be lifted up. And frankly, this economy is not working for working people. For too long, the rules have been written in the favor of the people who have the most and not in favor of the people who work the most.” </p>
<p>Warren, Sanders, O'Rourke, Booker, Biden and Harris would all give Americans a new square deal.</p>
<p>Democrats like Biden blamed President Donald Trump for exacerbating the problems of the New Gilded Age with his <a href="https://publicintegrity.org/topics/business/taxes/trumps-tax-cuts/">tax cuts</a> and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/tracking-deregulation-in-the-trump-era/">deregulation</a>. They accused him of putting profits over people. </p>
<p>Trump, for his part, has expressed admiration for the first Gilded Age.</p>
<p>In a March 25, 2016 interview with The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald-trump-transcript.html">New York Times</a> Trump said that at the turn of the 20th century, “that’s when we were a great, when we were really starting to go robust…there was a period of time when we were developing at the turn of the century which was a pretty wild time for this country and pretty wild in terms of building that machine, that machine was really based on entrepreneurship etc., etc.” </p>
<p>Trump hoped to make America “great,” just like the Gilded Age when the robber barons ruled.</p>
<h2>Tackling corruption</h2>
<p>Throughout the two debates, Democrats didn’t just echo Roosevelt in their diagnosis for what’s wrong with the nation, but they also echoed him on the solutions. </p>
<p>Candidate after candidate argued that the problems of the New Gilded Age will only get worse unless the nation restrains corruption and gives Americans a new square deal. </p>
<p>As Warren noted, “We’ve had the laws out there for a long time to be able to fight back. What’s been missing is courage, courage in Washington to take on the giants. That’s part of the corruption in this system.”</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Mercieca does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The problems facing America are unrestrained capitalism and corruption, said the Democratic presidential candidates over two nights of debates. Or was that really Teddy Roosevelt speaking?Jennifer Mercieca, Associate Professor of Communication, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1165712019-05-16T10:42:56Z2019-05-16T10:42:56ZWhy are there so many candidates for president?<p>Seven Democratic presidential candidates gathered on national television early in the 1988 campaign to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1987/08/02/us/debates-to-play-bigger-role-in-88.html?searchResultPosition=3">debate each other</a>. </p>
<p>The field of candidates, derided by Republicans as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/06/opinion/the-seven-dwarfs.html">“Seven Dwarfs</a>,” pales in comparison to the 24 Democratic candidates who have – at last count – declared their candidacy for president. </p>
<p>The seven Democrats on the stage in 1988 represented an unprecedented number of candidates vying in a presidential primary. Now, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/us/politics/democratic-debates-candidates.html">17 of the 24 declared Democratic presidential candidates have currently met the standards</a> set by the Democratic National Committee to qualify for participation in this election cycle’s debates. </p>
<p>And in 2016 the GOP used <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/another-kids-table-debate-only-much-smaller/405664/">two debate stages</a> to accommodate the 17 declared candidates. </p>
<p>I study <a href="http://myweb.fsu.edu/hanhassell4/">political parties and their role in electoral politics</a>. And I believe the rise in the number of presidential candidates in recent years results from divisions within the party coalitions and from easier access to vital campaign resources – money and media – that were not present in previous election cycles. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274507/original/file-20190515-60570-e6z5aj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274507/original/file-20190515-60570-e6z5aj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274507/original/file-20190515-60570-e6z5aj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274507/original/file-20190515-60570-e6z5aj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274507/original/file-20190515-60570-e6z5aj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274507/original/file-20190515-60570-e6z5aj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274507/original/file-20190515-60570-e6z5aj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274507/original/file-20190515-60570-e6z5aj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nine of the 17 Republican presidential candidates on stage with debate moderator Wolf Blitzer during the fifth Republican presidential debate on CNN, Dec. 15, 2015, in Las Vegas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/GOP-2016-Debate/5c37e54225bf4c4caabf9ae53a9c3593/100/0">AP/John Locher</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The old way</h2>
<p>Political parties are not monolithic organizations. Parties consist of a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/theory-of-political-parties-groups-policy-demands-and-nominations-in-american-politics/2F7996D5365C105C3B91CD56E6A1FAA3">network of groups with different policy interests who work together</a>. </p>
<p>For example, within the Democratic Party there are labor organizations, environmentalists and civil rights groups, each with different priorities. Each group would ideally prefer a candidate who will champion their ideas and strongly support their policy preferences. </p>
<p>But a primary filled with many candidates who attack one another risks harming the eventual nominee’s standing with voters. </p>
<p>Likewise, these divisive primaries may cause supporters of a candidate who fails to win the nomination to withhold their support of the nominee. </p>
<p>So to avoid <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-016-9332-1">the problems created by a divisive primary</a>, these groups must coordinate behind a single candidate who may not be everyone’s – or anyone’s – first choice.</p>
<p>This requires the groups within the party to compromise, subordinating their group’s interests in favor of a win for the party. </p>
<p>In previous election cycles, where the average number of candidates who declared their candidacy and campaigned actively through the first primaries and caucuses was much smaller, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Party-Decides-Presidential-Nominations-American/dp/0226112373">these groups have worked together effectively to stand behind one candidate</a>. </p>
<h2>Money, media and staff</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://newbooksnetwork.com/hans-hassell-the-partys-primary-control-of-congressional-nominations-cambridge-up-2018/">my research shows</a>, unified parties are able to discourage candidates from running or encourage them to drop out. </p>
<p>They do this by making it difficult for the candidates they don’t prefer to acquire the vital electoral resources that are necessary to win the nomination: media coverage, campaign funds and quality campaign staff. </p>
<p>Donors, staff and the media take cues from party elites about which candidates are the party’s choice. They are less likely to support, work for or cover those lacking the party’s support.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works/">Reforms to the presidential nomination</a> process in the early 1970s took choosing a nominee out of smoke-filled back rooms. But <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-03/political-parties-must-respond-to-disruption">parties have continued</a> to influence the outcome through their control of the money and other campaign resources necessary to win the nomination. </p>
<p>While these resources are available in abundance within the party network, they were previously harder to find outside of that network. In previous years, candidates who realized it would be hard to amass the necessary resources through party support ultimately declined to run or dropped out quickly, resulting in much smaller presidential fields. </p>
<h2>Declining party influence</h2>
<p>In recent years, things have changed. </p>
<p>Parties may still have the ability to push a candidate through the nomination <a href="https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2016/1/26/10834512/party-decides-establishment">when they are united</a>. But I believe party unification and power over electoral resources has also declined in these four areas:</p>
<h2>1. Media control</h2>
<p>In the past, candidates were <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/not-your-father-s-campaign-trail-what-might-have-happened-n989201">reliant on the media to publicize their candidacy</a> and get their message to voters. Party leaders and elites consistently have better connections with the media establishment and use those connections to promote preferred candidates. </p>
<p>But today’s media environment allows candidates to bring their message directly to voters. Social media <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/changing-media-changing-politics/6DDE422850CA74994BF4C512284C0C45">bypasses reporters and editors</a> and those who have connections to them so more candidates have easier access to this key campaign resource. </p>
<h2>2. Candidate ambitions</h2>
<p>Before, running for president was almost entirely about advancing one’s political career. As <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=NuZXHrSmy3UC&q=just+as+good+as+they+are#v=snippet&q=just%20as%20good%20as%20they%20are&f=false">Paul Tsongas, the former senator and presidential candidate, once said</a>, “When you get to the Senate, half the people around you are running for president. You see them and you think you are just as good as they are…So you start to think about running yourself.” </p>
<p>Now, a run for higher office can be a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/mike-pence-donald-jr-and-melania-never-thought-trump-would-become-president-769701">means to other opportunities outside of politics</a>. Republican Sen. Rick Santorum, a presidential candidate in 2016 and 2012, <a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/17/rick-santorum-joins-cnn-as-senior-political-commen/">became a pundit on CNN</a>. Another candidate, the GOP’s 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, ended up with a <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/a-tv-leap-wannabe-veep160160-121714">show on cable news</a>. </p>
<p>While parties still pressure candidates to withdraw, candidates may be less responsive than in the past. That’s because they care less about the desires of party elites since they may not be as interested in a career in party politics.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274514/original/file-20190515-60554-1f4b71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274514/original/file-20190515-60554-1f4b71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274514/original/file-20190515-60554-1f4b71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274514/original/file-20190515-60554-1f4b71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274514/original/file-20190515-60554-1f4b71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274514/original/file-20190515-60554-1f4b71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274514/original/file-20190515-60554-1f4b71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274514/original/file-20190515-60554-1f4b71t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Until recently, parties played a large role in choosing presidential nominees. Here, delegates to the Republican National Convention in Chicago, July 8, 1952.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/GOP-Convention-1952/9e40aca83c4d43ef889c1d81ead8dd95/61/0">AP//William Smith</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Fundraising</h2>
<p>Changes in campaign finance have also helped candidates find sufficient money outside of the party network to launch their campaign. </p>
<p>The rise of super PACs and other independent political entities has allowed candidates to gain access to large sums of money <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/us/politics/as-carly-fiorina-surges-so-does-the-work-of-her-super-pac.html">from a small number of donors</a>. Campaign finance rules previously encouraged candidates to rely on a larger base of wealthy donors – many of whom took cues from party elites. </p>
<p>At the same time, the internet and social media have also expanded the role of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/19/politics/2020-democrats-small-donations/index.html">small donors who are not traditionally involved in party politics</a>. Small dollar donations have taken a <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/news/congress/small-dollar-donors-2020-democrats-president-money">more important role in campaign funding</a>. </p>
<h2>4. Party disunity</h2>
<p>Lastly, party coalitions have also become more divided. </p>
<p>Divisions within the Republican Party coalition <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2014/05/07/politics/gop-establishment-tea-party-fights-ahead/index.html">became more evident</a> during the Tea Party movement. <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/02/04/the-insurgents-behind-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-224542">Similar ideological divisions</a> have emerged in the last two election cycles <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/27/dccc-cheri-bustos-progressives-1241010">between Democratic Party leaders and the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party</a>. The rise of differences and divisions within the parties makes it harder for the groups within the party network to coordinate on a single candidate.</p>
<h2>Here to stay</h2>
<p>While the number of candidates running for president in 2020 may be unprecedented, a crowded debate stage is unlikely to be a strange sight in the future. </p>
<p>The divisions within parties and the availability of money and media coverage outside of the traditional party network mean that potential candidates will continue to see – and take – opportunities where previously they did not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116571/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hans J.G. Hassell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The number of candidates in presidential primaries has skyrocketed since the 2016 election. Divisions inside political parties and easy ways for candidates to raise money are among the reasons why.Hans J.G. Hassell, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Florida State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/411232015-05-04T08:20:38Z2015-05-04T08:20:38ZRun Bernie run … but why?<p>Earlier this week, longtime Independent Vermont Senator and avowed socialist Bernie Sanders <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/29/politics/bernie-sanders-announces-presidential-run/">announced that he will run</a> for the presidency in 2016.</p>
<p>Sanders’s announcement <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/01/politics/bernie-sanders-fundraising/">excited </a>liberal activists wary of another centrist Clinton presidency but <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/bernie-sanders-wont-win-his-ideas-might-n349991">puzzled most political pundits</a>, who see no chance for a socialist candidate to do much of anything other than draw a few votes away from the eventual Democratic candidate. </p>
<p>Yet American history is rife with such quixotic presidential campaigns, and they can be divided into a few distinct types that can each shed light on Sanders’ goals for his candidacy.</p>
<p>There are those campaigns driven by a consistent and radical ideology, such as that of Socialist candidate Eugene Debs; those in which a Washington insider mounts a third-party challenge to the two-party status quo, such as Teddy Roosevelt’s 1912 effort; those in which a true outsider takes on the political system as such, including Ross Perot’s and Ralph Nader’s campaigns; and, most saliently for Sanders, those in which a candidacy can become a symbol of American ideals far beyond partisan politics, such as Shirley Chisholm in 1972 and Jesse Jackson in 1988.</p>
<h2>Labor activist Eugene Debs ran – even from jail</h2>
<p>Most obviously similar to Sanders, of course, are the five presidential campaigns of labor activist <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/wilson/peopleevents/p_debs.html">Eugene V. Debs</a>. </p>
<p>Like Sanders an <a href="https://www.marxists.org/archive/debs/">avowed socialist</a>, Debs ran for president in 1900 on the Social Democratic ticket and in 1904, 1908, 1912, and 1920 as a Socialist. These multiple campaigns indicated not a refusal to face reality so much as a genuine, consistent groundswell of support for Debs as an alternative candidate—indeed, he received the most votes in <a href="http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=1920">his final 1920 run</a>, despite being in prison for <a href="http://www.oyez.org/cases/1901-1939/1918/1918_714">violating the 1917 Espionage Act</a> at the time!</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80124/original/image-20150501-23890-mcgnuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80124/original/image-20150501-23890-mcgnuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80124/original/image-20150501-23890-mcgnuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80124/original/image-20150501-23890-mcgnuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80124/original/image-20150501-23890-mcgnuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80124/original/image-20150501-23890-mcgnuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80124/original/image-20150501-23890-mcgnuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eugene Debs released from prison in 1921.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Eugene_Debs_released_from_prison,_1921.jpg">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Like Debs before him, Sanders will no doubt receive substantial support from Americans who feel disconnected from our centrist political parties and narratives.</p>
<p>Whereas Debs never held elected office, however, Sanders has been a member of Congress – first as a Congressman, then a Senator – or more than 25 years before embarking on this first presidential run. As such, he also resembles another insider third party candidate, Teddy Roosevelt, who having served most of <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/1600/presidents/theodoreroosevelt">two prior terms as a Republican president</a> (from William McKinley’s 1901 assassination through William Howard Taft’s 1909 inauguration), subsequently decided to oppose Taft on the ticket of the <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/primary-resources/tr-progressive/">Progressive Bull Moose Party</a> in the 1912 election.</p>
<h2>Roosevelt’s progressive Bullmoose Party challenged the two-party system</h2>
<p>Roosevelt saw the Republican Party as having abandoned the Progressive policies for which he had fought, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2R9-mo4FNQ">believed an outsider run was necessary</a> to bring such a platform back into the national conversation – a description that seems to fit Sanders’ perspective on the Democratic Party in 2015 quite well.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80127/original/image-20150501-23863-apcd7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80127/original/image-20150501-23863-apcd7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=886&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80127/original/image-20150501-23863-apcd7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=886&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80127/original/image-20150501-23863-apcd7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=886&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80127/original/image-20150501-23863-apcd7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1114&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80127/original/image-20150501-23863-apcd7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1114&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80127/original/image-20150501-23863-apcd7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1114&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Theodore Roosevelt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AShirley_Chisholm.jpg">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a very popular ex-president, however, one <a href="http://www.ohranger.com/mount-rushmore/roosevelt">bound for Mount Rushmore</a> no less, Roosevelt stood a far better chance of competing seriously for the presidency than does Sanders. </p>
<p>As a result, and in his perspective as a critic of virtually everything about mainstream Washington, Sanders could also be compared to truly symbolic outsider presidential candidates, the two most famous of whom have both run in the last couple decades: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPIVI0CbCmg">Ross Perot in 1992</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHx4AcKuZGs">Ralph Nader in 2000</a>.</p>
<p>Perot and Nader weren’t exactly running to compete for the presidency, nor were they driven by an ideological agenda as overt and consistent as Debs’s Socialism. Instead, their goals could be described as both raising awareness of what they saw as our system’s fundamental flaws and helping Americans realize they don’t have to accept that status quo. </p>
<p>When <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-campaign-to-highlight-immoral-u-s-economic-system-1430419269">Sanders claims</a> that he is running to demonstrate that our contemporary economy is both “immoral” and “unsustainable,” he represents another such stringent critique of the current system.</p>
<h2>The challenges from Chisholm and Jackson</h2>
<p>I would highlight one additional salient historical context for Sanders’ campaign, and it’s both the most unlikely and, to my mind, the most important: the presidential candidacies of <a href="http://www.uic.edu/orgs/cwluherstory/jofreeman/polhistory/chisholm.htm">Shirley Chisholm in 1972</a> and <a href="http://www.thenation.com/article/154509/jesse-jackson-and-his-campaign">Jesse Jackson in 1988</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80125/original/image-20150501-23884-15cy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80125/original/image-20150501-23884-15cy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80125/original/image-20150501-23884-15cy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80125/original/image-20150501-23884-15cy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=944&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80125/original/image-20150501-23884-15cy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1187&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80125/original/image-20150501-23884-15cy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1187&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80125/original/image-20150501-23884-15cy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1187&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shirley Chisholm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AShirley_Chisholm.jpg">By Thomas J. O'Halloran, U.S. News & World Reports [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These two Civil Rights activists and leaders undoubtedly ran to draw attention to the specific issues of race, ethnicity, and gender about which they cared so deeply and for which they fought so consistently. </p>
<p>Yet in so doing, they also did something else, something even more sweeping: they redefined, for a time, campaigns and the presidency and even politics themselves as far beyond partisanship. </p>
<p>Chisholm did so first and foremost through <a href="http://www.visionaryproject.org/chisholmshirley/">her own impressive and inspiring character and life</a>, embodying in her identity the emphases of both the Civil Rights and women’s movements on genuine equality and shared citizenship. </p>
<p>Jackson was a more divisive figure, due both to 1980s culture war trends and some of <a href="http://ajrarchive.org/article.asp?id=370">his own incendiary comments</a>; but in his <a href="http://rainbowpush.org/pages/brief_history">creation of the Rainbow Coalition</a> and his campaign’s emphasis on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzlGKEC1MyQ">imagining the national community as similarly diverse</a>, Jackson’s candidacy helped extend the legacy of the Civil Rights movement for a new era.</p>
<p>For a time, both Chisholm and Jackson demonstrated how political campaigns and conversations can still embody our nation’s highest ideals and best qualities, can reflect the kinds of activisms that from the abolitionists to the suffragettes to a bridge in Selma have stood and fought for those ideals. </p>
<p>Too often, it can seem that our politics have nothing to do with those battles. But campaigns like Chisholm’s and Jackson’s, and perhaps like Sanders’s, can bridge the gap and remind us all of what we fight for. </p>
<p>Whether these candidates could win the presidency was beside the point: these were campaigns that changed the way we collectively imagine our national community, reminding us of voices and ideas that it’s all too easy to leave out of partisan politics. </p>
<p>In his own way, Sanders has an opportunity to do the same.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41123/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Railton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What is up with Bernie Sanders? No chance that he would win the primary, much less the presidency. But there is a long history of outsider candidates who have impacted American politics.Ben Railton, Associate Professor of English Studies and Coordinator of American Studies, Fitchburg State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.