tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/developing-countries-25761/articlesDeveloping countries – The Conversation2024-01-29T12:51:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217892024-01-29T12:51:00Z2024-01-29T12:51:00ZOver half of charity campaigns for international causes focus on Africa – here’s why that’s harmful<p>The images used by charities and NGOs can become deeply ingrained in the memories of supporters, donors, development partners and the “beneficiaries” themselves. These stories colour what is generally known about global poverty and the developing world. </p>
<p>One of the most notorious examples was the media and charity coverage of the <a href="http://www.imaging-famine.org/papers/UK_Report_Section_1.pdf">Ethiopian famine</a> in the early 1980s. Powerful and disturbing images brought the reality of the famine into the lives of millions of British people and fast became the currency of the media and NGOs.</p>
<p>But there’s a problem with this. The use of such imagery seems to confirm rather than challenge traditional perceptions that Africa is underdeveloped and not capable of dealing with its own problems.</p>
<p>In 2021, I purchased 17 national newspapers in the UK every weekend over a period of six months. The aim was to explore whether charity adverts have changed in recent years and what kinds of characters are represented in fundraising campaigns. </p>
<p>After analysing a total of 541 fundraising images, one of the <a href="https://charity-advertising.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/charity-representations-of-distant-others-report-2024.pdf">major findings</a> was that Africa continues to be over-represented in charity adverts supporting international causes. Over half of the images (56%) focused on countries in Africa. And almost none of these images contain whole family units – rather they are set in rural areas and feature women and children.</p>
<p>But there is also evidence that charities are actively responding to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/voluntary-sector-network/2018/jan/12/charities-stop-poverty-porn-fundraising-ed-sheeran-comic-relief">previous critiques</a> of using shock tactics, dehumanisation and employing images to evoke emotions.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A charity advert in a newspaper with a picture of women and children in rural Ethiopia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571441/original/file-20240125-21-l248se.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Example of an advert by EthiopiAid in the Guardian using images of women and children.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Girling</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Why does it matter?</h2>
<p>By constantly focusing the spotlight on African countries, charities reinforce historical stereotypes of underdevelopment that equate Africa with poverty. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/67684/public-attitudes-april10.pdf">report</a> from 2010 that was commissioned by the Department for International Development, for instance, found that the UK public view “developing countries” as synonymous with “Africa”. They associate Africa with poverty and misery, reflecting some of the representations used in charitable appeals. </p>
<p>The consistent portrayal of these depictions in various campaigns has promoted the view among the British public that there has been little to no progress in economic and social development across Africa since the 1980s. This has contributed to the belief that Africa is a “<a href="https://academicjournals.org/article/article1379931879_Andrews.pdf">bottomless pit</a>” in terms of charitable efforts and the constant need for foreign aid.</p>
<p>But, in reality, this is not the case. Africa is developing fast. It has the world’s <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/reimagining-economic-growth-in-africa-turning-diversity-into-opportunity">youngest and fastest-growing population</a> which, by the middle of this century, is expected to hit 2.5 billion.</p>
<h2>Addressing stereotypes</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, my findings do suggest that the sector is making strides towards decolonising narratives and addressing its use of damaging stereotypes. In 2016, a study found that 34% of all <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jid.3235">British charity adverts</a> used “pitiful images” that explicitly emphasised human suffering. </p>
<p>However, by 2021, only two out of the 27 charities that placed adverts used pitiful images in their fundraising appeals. This amounted to 11% of all adverts as these charities repeatedly used such imagery over the six month study period, but it still represents a significant decline.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A fundraising appeal by Sightsavers depicting an African child suffering from trachoma." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571442/original/file-20240125-15-h61b6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Image from a Sightsavers fundraising leaflet which was used 20 times during the six month period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Girling</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>Women and children continued to be the most popular characters in newspaper adverts. But, compared to similar studies from <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/representations-of-global-poverty-9780857722492/">2013</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jid.3235">2016</a>, there was a significant reduction in the use of images of children. In 2021, 21% of charitable campaigns featured images of children, down from 42% in 2013.</p>
<p>By 2021, 20% of all the images used in charitable campaigns were also of people characterised as professionals or leaders from developing countries. These people included doctors, nurses and other development workers, offering a more realistic view of people from Africa.</p>
<p>Several factors have prompted charities into reconsidering the potential damage of the representation they use and the stories they tell in recent years. One of the main factors is the need to decolonise narratives by reducing the use of negative stereotypes.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Black-Lives-Matter">Black Lives Matter</a> protests in 2020 were a significant catalyst in charities rapidly adopting or updating their ethical imagery policies. The protests alerted people and organisations to the injustices of colonial histories. </p>
<p>The COVID pandemic was also instrumental in charities being forced to employ local photographers and filmmakers in the countries where they deliver programmes. Travel restrictions that were imposed during the pandemic meant charities were unable to fly in their own staff.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>Images have the potential to inflict damage. So communications professionals in the charity sector must strive to diversify the characters they portray.</p>
<p>But the public has a level of responsibility too. We all need to be careful about making assumptions of other countries and cultures when viewing charity images in newspaper adverts. Photographs may not always provide a complete picture.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221789/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Girling does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Charity advertising often reinforces historical stereotypes of underdevelopment that equate Africa with poverty.David Girling, Associate Professor and Director of Research Communication in the School of Global Development, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2179602023-12-13T13:35:56Z2023-12-13T13:35:56ZGrowth of autocracies will expand Chinese global influence via Belt and Road Initiative as it enters second decade<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564937/original/file-20231211-23-i4omvy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Xi Jinping shakes hands with Chinese construction workers at a Belt and Road Initiative site in Trinidad and Tobago in June 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chinas-president-xi-jinping-shake-hands-with-chinese-news-photo/169793922">Frederic Dubray/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>China currently faces <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/10/18/chinas-economy-may-be-growing-faster-but-big-problems-remain">daunting challenges</a> in its domestic economy. But weakness in the real estate market and consumer spending at home is unlikely to stem its rising influence abroad. </p>
<p>In mid-October 2023, China celebrated the 10-year anniversary of its <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-turns-10-xi-announces-8-new-priorities-continues-push-for-global-influence-216014">Belt and Road Initiative</a>, or BRI. The BRI seeks to connect China with countries around the world via land and maritime networks, with the aim of improving regional integration, increasing trade and stimulating economic growth. Through the expansion of the BRI, China also sought to extend its global influence, especially in developing regions.</p>
<p>During its first decade, the initiative has faced a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2020/01/29/how-chinas-belt-and-road-became-a-global-trail-of-trouble/?sh=124d92a5443d">barrage of criticism from the West</a>, mainly for saddling countries with debt, inattention to environmental impact, and corruption. </p>
<p>It has also encountered unexpected challenges – notably the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to massive supply chain issues and restrictions on the movement of Chinese workers overseas. Yet, as the BRI heads into its second decade, global economic trends suggest it will continue to play an important role in spreading Chinese influence.</p>
<p>I’m an associate professor of global studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, where I teach about <a href="https://hss.cuhk.edu.cn/en/teacher/1126">business-government relations</a> in emerging economies. In my new book, “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/chinas-chance-to-lead/2C88E7D955049471664120981CDF2DFB">China’s Chance to Lead</a>,” I discuss which countries have already and are now most likely to seek out and benefit from Chinese spending. Understanding this helps explain why China and the Belt and Road Initiative are poised to benefit greatly from the global economy over the next several decades.</p>
<h2>Malaysia’s unlikely prominence</h2>
<p>In October 2013, China President Xi Jinping announced the launch of the maritime portion of the BRI during a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-24361172">speech in Jakarta</a>. At the time, Indonesia appeared to be an ideal candidate for Chinese infrastructure spending, yet it was Malaysia – surprisingly – that emerged as a far more avid participant. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial view of massive housing development in Malaysia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A view of Forest City, a condominium project launched under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, in Malaysia’s Johor state.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-aerial-photo-taken-on-june-16-2022-shows-a-general-news-photo/1241336726">Mohd Rasfan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>In comparison to Malaysia, Indonesia’s economy was <a href="https://www.worlddata.info/country-comparison.php?country1=IDN&country2=MYS">three times larger</a> and its population <a href="https://www.worlddata.info/country-comparison.php?country1=IDN&country2=MYS">nearly nine times bigger</a>, yet its gross domestic product per capita only was <a href="https://www.worlddata.info/country-comparison.php?country1=IDN&country2=MYS">one-third as high</a>. Indonesia also had enormous potential to increase its already substantial <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/idn/partner/chn">natural resources exports to China</a>. Taken together, these factors point to Indonesia’s far greater demand for infrastructure that would aid its economic development. </p>
<p>Furthermore, Indonesia’s democratic institutions were more conducive to attracting foreign investment. Its checks and balances enhanced policy stability and reduced political risk. By contrast, Malaysia’s government, which was dominated by a single ruling party coalition, lacked comparable checks and balances.</p>
<p>Despite Indonesia’s numerous advantages, Malaysia attracted a far larger volume of BRI spending during its first several years. Data provided by the <a href="https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/">China Global Investment Tracker</a> indicates the value of newly announced infrastructure projects in Malaysia surged from US$3.5 billion in 2012 to over $8.6 billion in 2016. Spending in Indonesia, meanwhile, rose modestly from $3.75 billion to $3.77 billion over the same period.</p>
<p>Malaysia also enthusiastically participated in the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/china-digital-silk-road/">Digital Silk Road</a>, or DSR, launched in 2015. The DSR is the technological dimension of the BRI that aims to improve digital connectivity in Belt and Road countries. Malaysia Prime Minister Najib Razak engaged Jack Ma, the co-founder of Chinese tech giant Alibaba, as an adviser to develop e-commerce in 2016. This led to the creation in 2017 of a <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/business/2017/11/298317/%C2%A0digital-free-trade-zone-goes-live-nov-3">Digital Free Trade Zone</a>, an international e-commerce logistics hub next to the Kuala Lumpur International Airport.</p>
<p>With this foundation in place, Malaysia’s capital went on to become the first city outside China to adopt Alibaba’s <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/alibaba-city-brain-artificial-intelligence-china-kuala-lumpur">City Brain</a> smart city solution in January 2018. City Brain uses the wealth of urban data to effectively allocate public resources, improve social governance and promote sustainable urban development. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pivotal-year-city-brain-other-middle-east-ai-news-carrington-malin-/">Dubai and other cities in the Middle East</a> followed. </p>
<p>Digital Silk Road projects in Indonesia during that period were far fewer, slower and less ambitious. They primarily involved the expansion of <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/Assets/Documents/updates/2022-SU-IndoChina-Updated.pdf">Chinese smartphone and e-commerce firms</a> in Indonesia.</p>
<p>What accounts for these contrasting responses? The short answer: their political regimes. And understanding that could be key to the global spread of Chinese influence in the coming years.</p>
<h2>State-owned business and clientelism</h2>
<p>In the lead-up to the May 2018 election, Malaysia’s ruling party and its allies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/186810341803700307">worried they could lose power</a> after six decades of rule. Desperate to bolster support, Najib quickly identified <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/what-happened-to-chinas-bri-projects-in-malaysia/">numerous infrastructure megaprojects</a> in which Chinese state-owned businesses could partner with Malaysian counterparts.</p>
<p>Indonesia, by contrast, placed far greater emphasis on projects led by private business. For example, the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, “<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/workers-are-dying-in-the-ev-industrys-tainted-city/">the world’s epicenter for nickel production</a>,” is one of the largest Chinese investments in Indonesia and a joint venture between private Chinese and Indonesian companies. </p>
<p>As I discuss in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/chinas-chance-to-lead/2C88E7D955049471664120981CDF2DFB">my book</a>, when rulers in autocracies with semi-competitive elections, like Malaysia’s, have a weak hold on power, their desire for Chinese spending is amplified. This relates to <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095617734">clientelism</a>, or the delivery of goods and services in exchange for political support.</p>
<p>A higher level of state control in autocracies grants political leaders greater influence over the allocation of clientelist benefits, which aids leaders’ reelection efforts. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Najib Razak, prime minister of Malaysia, and Jack Ma Yun, founder of Alibaba Group, stand and clap" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Najib Razak, left, then-prime minister of Malaysia, and Jack Ma, Alibaba Group founder and executive chairman, attend a launch ceremony of the Digital Free Trade Zone in Kuala Lumpur.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/najib-razak-prime-minister-of-malaysia-and-jack-ma-yun-news-photo/1092858894">Thomas Yau/South China Morning Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Economic trends that will benefit China</h2>
<p>Even if China’s future growth is lower than the pre-pandemic period, these four features of the global economy are poised to benefit China and the Belt and Road Initiative over the next several decades. </p>
<p><strong>1. Global rise of autocracies</strong> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf">Over 60% of developing countries</a> are autocratic, according to data provided by the <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/">Varieties of Democracy Project</a>. This represented 72% of the global population in 2022, up from 46% in 2012. </p>
<p>For decades, the World Bank and affiliated regional development banks were the only game in town for development financing to low- and middle-income countries. Consequently, these global lenders could demand liberalizing reforms that were sometimes contrary to the interests of incumbent rulers, especially autocrats. </p>
<p>China’s rise has created an attractive alternative for autocratic regimes, especially since it does not impose the same kinds of conditions that often require loosening state controls on the corporate sector and reducing clientelism. Between 2014 and 2019, I find that 77% of total BRI spending on construction projects went to autocracies, and primarily to those with semi-competitive elections.</p>
<p><strong>2. Demand for Chinese infrastructure spending</strong></p>
<p>The economies of developing countries have grown <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/WEOWORLD/ADVEC/OEMDC">more than twice as quickly</a> as advanced economies since 2000 and are projected to <a href="https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html">outpace advanced economies</a> in the decades ahead. On the eve of the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991, developing economies accounted for 37% of global GDP; by 2030, the International Monetary Fund projects they will account for <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD">around 63%</a>. </p>
<p>At the same time, the global infrastructure financing gap – that is, the money needed to build and upgrade existing infrastructure – is estimated to be around <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/the-global-infrastructure-financing-gap-where-sovereign-wealth-funds-swfs-and-pension-funds-can-come-in/#:%7E:text=The%20global%20infrastructure%20financing%20gap%20is%20estimated%20to%20be%20around,year%20in%20the%20infrastructure%20sector.">$15 trillion</a> by 2040. To fill this gap, the world must spend just under $1 trillion more than the previous year up through 2040, with most of this spending directed toward low-income economies.</p>
<p>Because many of these fast-growing, low-income countries are predominantly semicompetitive autocracies, China is well-positioned to expand its global influence via the Belt and Road Initiative. </p>
<p><strong>3. Emerging tech</strong></p>
<p>The advent of what is known as <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/mckinsey-explainers/what-are-industry-4-0-the-fourth-industrial-revolution-and-4ir">Industry 4.0 technologies</a>, such as artificial intelligence, big data analytics and blockchain, could enable developing countries to <a href="https://hub.unido.org/sites/default/files/publications/Unlocking%20the%20Potential%20of%20Industry%204.0%20for%20Developing%20Countries.pdf">leapfrog stages of development</a>. </p>
<p>By creating <a href="https://www.nbr.org/publication/setting-the-standards-locking-in-chinas-technological-influence/">new technical standards</a> to be used in these emerging digital technologies, China aims to lock in Chinese digital products and services and lock out non-Chinese competitors wherever its standards are adopted. </p>
<p>In Tanzania, for example, the Chinese company contracted to deploy the national ICT broadband network constructed it to be <a href="https://www.cfr.org/sites/default/files/pdf/Chinas%20Digital%20Silk%20Road%20and%20Africas%20Technological%20Future_FINAL.pdf">compatible only with routers</a> made by Chinese firm Huawei. </p>
<p>Incorporating digital technologies into hard infrastructure projects – digital traffic sensors on roads, for example – presents more opportunities for China to use the Belt and Road Initiative to promote adoption of its technologies and standards globally.</p>
<p><strong>4. Urbanization</strong></p>
<p>Finally, the developing world’s <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization#:%7E:text=Across%20all%20countries%2C%20urban%20shares,from%2054%25%20in%202016">urban population</a> is expected to rise from 35% in 1990 to 65% by 2050. The biggest increases will likely occur in the semi-competitive autocracies of Africa. A desire for sustainable urbanization will increase the demand for infrastructure that incorporates digital technologies – once again amplifying the opportunity for China and the BRI. </p>
<p>Understanding what drives the demand for the Belt and Road Initiative, and the trends that will propel it into the future, is vital for the West to devise an effective strategy that counters China’s rising global influence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Carney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More autocratic governments, growing urbanization and emerging technologies will bolster the spread of Chinese influence around the world, an expert on emerging economies explains.Richard Carney, Associate professor of global studies, Chinese University of Hong Kong, ShenzhenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2154162023-10-24T12:23:14Z2023-10-24T12:23:14ZBacklash to the oil CEO leading the UN climate summit overlooks his ambitious agenda for COP28 – and concerns of the Global South<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553511/original/file-20231012-21-7d5266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, CEO of the United Arab Emirates' state oil company, will be leading the COP28 United Nations climate conference.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sultan-al-jaber-chief-executive-of-the-uaes-abu-dhabi-news-photo/1529645349">Francois Walschaerts/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In December 2023, negotiators from countries worldwide will meet in the United Arab Emirates for the next round of <a href="https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetailsIII.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7&chapter=27&Temp=mtdsg3&clang=_en">international climate talks</a>. While the talks are considered essential to securing global agreements needed to avoid dangerous climate change, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-15/climate-talks-ahead-of-cop28-raise-concerns-of-weak-outcome">confidence in the summit, known as COP28, is at a low</a>. One reason is the man in charge.</p>
<p>The UAE set off a firestorm in January 2023 when it announced that Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the CEO of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company – also known as ADNOC – would be the president-designate of the climate summit, giving him a large amount of control over the meeting’s agenda.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/us-eu-lawmakers-want-al-jaber-out-as-cop28-president?leadSource=uverify%20wall">U.S. and European politicians</a> demanded al-Jaber’s resignation. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/65423811-7c7e-4ae5-876d-ffbed29cefcf">claimed</a> that fossil fuel interests had “captured the U.N. process to a disturbing degree, even putting the CEO of one of the largest oil companies in the world in as president of COP28.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Kerry, in a western business suit, touches Al Jaber's arm as they speak. Al Jaber is in traditional Middle Eastern attire. Both men are tall and about the same height." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">U.S. Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry spoke with
Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber during the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi on Jan. 14, 2023. Kerry was supportive when al-Jaber was chosen to head COP28.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/united-arab-emirates-minister-of-state-and-ceo-of-the-abu-news-photo/1246218348?adppopup=true">Karim Sahib/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Concerns about the role of fossil fuel industries in obstructing pro-climate policies are entirely legitimate, in my view. There is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.809">abundant evidence</a> that the largest fossil fuel companies knew their products would cause climate change decades ago, but deliberately attempted to deny climate science and oppose climate policies.</p>
<p>However, I believe calls to <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2023/09/30/boycott-cop28-holding-a-climate-conference-in-dubai-is-absurd-and-dangerous_6142129_23.html">boycott COP28</a> and ban the region’s choice to lead it are undermining the credibility of United Nations negotiations and are overlooking the potential of the COP28 agenda.</p>
<p>I am a former adviser to the <a href="https://www.unep.org/">U.N. Environment Program </a> and a <a href="https://www.clarku.edu/faculty/profiles/ibrahim-ozdemir/">scholar of environmental ethics</a>. My own concerns about this issue led me to team up with six colleagues from across the Global South to conduct <a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">a detailed comparative analysis</a> of the goals and behavior of the five most recent COP presidencies.</p>
<p>We concluded, to our surprise, that the policy agenda being promoted by the UAE’s COP28 presidency would do much to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. We also found that many criticisms of the UAE’s presidency are unfounded.</p>
<h2>How al-Jaber was chosen</h2>
<p>First, it’s useful to understand how COP presidents are chosen. </p>
<p>Choosing which country hosts a COP summit is managed by a <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/the-big-picture/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences/how-cops-are-organized-questions-and-answers#Host-country-and-presidency">United Nations process</a> that rotates democratically <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/the-big-picture/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences/how-cops-are-organized-questions-and-answers#Host-country-and-presidency">among six regions</a>. The countries in each region consult about who will represent their region, and that country makes a pitch, which is assessed and finalized by the secretariat that runs the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.</p>
<p>For COP28, the Asia-Pacific region, which consists of a diverse mix of developing nations, chose the UAE and al-Jaber.</p>
<h2>Energy concerns of the Global South</h2>
<p>For some Global South nations, the prospect of phasing out fossil fuels – called for by many activist groups and countries headed into COP28 – seems not only daunting, but a <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/312441468197382126/pdf/104866-v1-REVISED-PUBLIC-Main-report.pdf">threat to economic development</a>.</p>
<p>Of the dozens of oil-producing countries in the world, around <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/just-transition-developing-countries-shift-oil-gas">half are middle-income developing countries</a> with economies that are highly vulnerable to volatile oil and gas prices. Studies have suggested that a fast fossil fuel phaseout could cause <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0182-1">trillion-dollar losses</a> related to infrastructure investments in oil-producing countries if they aren’t prepared.</p>
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<p>At the same time, however, many nations of the Global South face <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">disproportionate consequences from climate change</a>, from extreme weather events to rising sea levels that can <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/amid-rising-seas-island-nations-push-for-legal-protection">threaten the very existence</a> of their communities.</p>
<p>Al-Jaber has called phasing down fossil fuels <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/13/phase-down-of-fossil-fuel-inevitable-and-essential-says-cop28-president">“inevitable” and “essential”</a>, but he has said the energy system and the Global South <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/10/world-not-ready-to-switch-off-fossil-fuels-uae-says">aren’t ready for a fast phaseout</a> until renewable energy ramps up and that the summit should <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2496902-uaes-aljaber-says-cop-28-must-focus-on-adaptation">focus on adaptation</a>. That view, while supported by some countries in the Global South, has drawn sharp criticism.</p>
<h2>Al-Jaber, Masdar and ADNOC</h2>
<p>Al-Jaber’s presidency of COP28 has been described by some as an <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/middleeast/cop-28-dubai-greenwashing-climate/index.html">attempt by the UAE to “greenwash”</a> oil and gas expansion plans by ADNOC, one of the largest oil companies in the world.</p>
<p>While I am sympathetic to this concern, my colleagues and I found it to be far too simplistic. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28">Al-Jaber</a> spent the bulk of his career in the renewable energy sector. In 2006, he <a href="https://masdar.ae/en/About-Us/Management/History-and-Legacy">founded and ran</a> the UAE state-owned renewable energy company, Masdar, which he helped to grow into the <a href="https://www.energyglobal.com/wind/07062023/uae-and-egypt-advance-development-of-africas-biggest-wind-farm/">largest renewable operator in Africa</a>.</p>
<p>He was appointed CEO of ADNOC in 2016, in the context of the UAE’s official launch of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12457">a national “post oil strategy</a>.” The previous year, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed delivered a speech to a UAE government summit <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/abu-dhabi-s-journey-towards-celebrating-the-last-barrel-of-oil-gathers-pace-1.737529">declaring</a> that the UAE would celebrate “the last barrel of oil” by mid-century.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three men standing and talking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber has met with officials in several developing countries, including India’s minister for environment, forest and climate change, Bhupender Yadav, right.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bhupender-yadav-indias-minister-for-environment-forest-and-news-photo/1559090143">R.Satish Babu/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>ADNOC has been heavily criticized for planning to invest US$150 billion in oil and gas expansion capacity this decade. I share these concerns. To stay within the 1.5-degree Celsius (2.7-Fahrenheit) global warming limits adopted under the Paris Agreement, the world may need to <a href="https://climatechangenews.com/2023/09/27/new-iea-net-zero-report-leaves-big-polluters-less-room-to-hide/">cease new fossil fuel investments</a>, as the International Energy Agency has urged, and also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6228">decommission some 40%</a> of already developed fossil fuel reserves. </p>
<p>However, I also believe this must be viewed in a global context when discussing the COP28 presidency: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/12/us-behind-more-than-a-third-of-global-oil-and-gas-expansion-plans-report-finds">Far larger fossil fuel growth plans</a> than the UAE’s are being led by the U.S., Canada, Russia, Iran, China and Brazil. Most fossil fuel financing around the world comes from <a href="https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/2023.04.13_Report_Banking-On-Climate-Chaos-2023.pdf">banks in the U.S., Canada and Japan</a>. And since 2015, European banks have <a href="https://reclaimfinance.org/site/en/2023/04/13/european-banks-are-among-the-biggest-drivers-of-fossil-fuel-expansion/">poured a colossal $1.3 trillion into fossil fuels</a>, including $130 billion in 2022 alone.</p>
<h2>The COP28 agenda</h2>
<p>In our assessment, we found that the UAE is already providing leadership that goes beyond previous COP presidencies.</p>
<p><a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">Our report</a> found that the total value of the renewable energy projects planned by the UAE with various partners this decade adds up to over $300 billion. This is considerably bigger than clean energy investments mobilized by previous COP presidencies, our analysis found.</p>
<p>The COP28 agenda that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/13/what-is-the-uae-cop28-plan-of-climate-action">the UAE is promoting</a> also offers a promising pathway to accelerate a transition away from fossil fuels.</p>
<p>The agenda includes a goal of tripling renewable energy capacity within the next seven years, further driving down costs to <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-05/Impact-on-solar-energy-costs-of-tripling-renewables-capacity-by-2030.pdf?ref=ageoftransformation.org">rapidly outcompete fossil fuels</a>, potentially within <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009">the next 20 years</a>.</p>
<p>It also calls for countries to agree to eliminate fossil fuel production where carbon emissions are not captured by around midcentury, which could fast-track scaling up carbon capture, usage and storage commercially.</p>
<p>And restructuring climate financing to make it low-cost and reduce debt burdens, as the UAE presidency proposes, could finally <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/09/19/cop28-president-unga-transform-climate-finance-bridge-trillion-gap-environment-politics-sultan-al-jaber/">unlock the trillions of dollars</a> desperately needed by the developing world to support its energy transitions while industrializing. Given that lack of financing is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.06.024">the key obstacle to the energy transition in developing countries</a>, COP28’s focus on this is critical.</p>
<p>Certainly, the optics of having an oil CEO lead a climate summit is concerning for anyone who advocates rapid-action phasing down of fossil fuels, and it remains to be seen how dedicated the UAE is to these policies. But I and my co-authors of the report <a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">concluded</a> that if the COP28 summit succeeds in securing landmark agreements on the above issues, it would be a significant step forward in fast-tracking a just transition away from fossil fuels and a considerable improvement on what has been proposed in past COP summits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>İbrahim Özdemir was previously Director General of the Department of Foreign Affairs in the Ministry of National Education in Turkey. He was previously a member of the UNESCO Turkish Commission Board between 2005 and 2010, Turk Felsefe Dernegi (The Turkish Philosophical Association) between 2001 and 2009, and the Turkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosion, for Reforestation and the Protection of Natural Habitats between 2000 and 2004.</span></em></p>An analysis of past UN conference presidencies suggests the 2023 summit’s agenda would do more to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.Ibrahim Ozdemir, Professor of Philosophy, Uskudar University; Visiting Professor, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2100062023-08-01T12:25:30Z2023-08-01T12:25:30ZRate hikes may have slowed inflation in the US – but they have also heightened the risk of financial crises for lower-income nations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540041/original/file-20230730-23-hvvs98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C63%2C4690%2C3077&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sri Lanka is among the countries facing the risk of debt distress.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/street-vendor-sells-prawns-and-sea-food-at-her-kiosk-at-the-news-photo/1248858886?adppopup=true">Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The campaign to fight U.S. inflation by upping <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/07/26/1190093285/fed-federal-reserve-interest-rates-borrowing-inflation">interest rates</a> has been going on for a year and a half – and its impacts are being <a href="https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-business-international-monetary-fund-sri-lanka-ab562cd9e16592e40ec8c6d842c74b7a">felt around the world</a>.</p>
<p>On July 26, 2023, the Federal Reserve announced <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/26/economy/fed-july-interest-rate-decision-final/index.html">another quarter-point hike</a>. That means U.S. rates have now gone up 5.25 percentage points over the past 18 months. While inflation is now coming down in the U.S., the aggressive monetary policy may also be having significant longer-term impact on countries across the world, especially in developing countries. And that isn’t good.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://polisci.msu.edu/people/directory/bodea-cristina.html">study how economic phenomena</a> such as banking crises, periods of high inflation and soaring rates affect countries around the world and believe this prolonged period of higher U.S. interest rates has increased the risk of economic and social instability, especially in lower-income nations.</p>
<h2>Ripples around the world</h2>
<p>Monetary policy decisions in the U.S., such as raising interest rates, have a ripple effect in low-income countries – not least because of the central role of the dollar in the global economy. Many emerging economies <a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/global-markets-breakingviews-2023-02-28/">rely on the dollar for trade, and most borrow</a> in the U.S. dollar – all at rates influenced by the Federal Reserve. And when U.S. interest rates go up, many countries – and especially <a href="https://african.business/2023/05/african-banker/interest-rates-hikes-exact-high-price-in-africa">developing ones – tend to follow suit</a>.</p>
<p>This is largely out of concern for <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/14/how-countries-should-respond-to-the-strong-dollar">currency depreciation</a>. Raising U.S. interest rates has the effect of making American government and corporate bonds look more attractive to investors. The result is footloose foreign capital <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-the-us-federal-reserve-bank-holds-the-world-in-its-hands-190936">flows out of emerging markets</a> that are deemed riskier. This <a href="https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-business-world-bank-international-monetary-fund-71aa7e9c225e973ec16a962fe6d53773">pushes down the currencies</a> of those nations and prompts governments in lower-income nations to <a href="https://african.business/2023/05/african-banker/interest-rates-hikes-exact-high-price-in-africa">scramble to mirror</a> U.S. Federal Reserve policy. The problem is, many of these countries already have high interest rates, and further hikes limit how much governments can lend to expand their own economies – heightening the risk of recession.</p>
<p>Then there is the impact that raising rates in the U.S. has had on countries with large debts. When rates were lower, a lot of lower-income nations took on <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/7/4/is-a-global-debt-bomb-about-to-explode">high levels of international debt</a> to offset the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and then later the effect of higher prices caused by war in Ukraine. But the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/02/high-interest-rates-paid-by-poorer-nations-spark-fears-of-global-debt-crisis">rising cost of borrowing</a> makes it more difficult for governments to cover repayments that are coming due now. This condition, called “<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/09/what-is-debt-sustainability-basics">debt distress</a>,” is affecting an increasing number of countries. Writing in May 2023, when he was still president of the World Bank, David Malpass estimated that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-economy-needs-to-get-its-growth-back-group-of-seven-developing-countries-debt-financing-yield-curve-private-sector-innovation-4113e720">some 60% of lower-income countries</a> are in or high risk of entering debt distress.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man hold aloft a crate of fish." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540292/original/file-20230731-247744-e58okb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540292/original/file-20230731-247744-e58okb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540292/original/file-20230731-247744-e58okb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540292/original/file-20230731-247744-e58okb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540292/original/file-20230731-247744-e58okb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540292/original/file-20230731-247744-e58okb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540292/original/file-20230731-247744-e58okb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mozambique is among the countries facing extra financial stress.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/fisherman-balances-a-crate-of-fishes-on-his-head-on-news-photo/1230026981?adppopup=true">Alfredo Zuniga/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More broadly, any attempt to slow down growth to lower inflation in the U.S. – which is the intended aim of raising interest rates – will have a knock-on effect on the economies of smaller nations. As borrowing costs in the U.S. increase, businesses and consumers will find themselves with less cheap money for all goods – domestic or international. Meanwhile, any fears that the Fed has pulled on the brakes too quickly and is risking recession will suppress consumer spending further.</p>
<h2>The risk of spillover</h2>
<p>This isn’t just theory – history has shown that in practice it is true.</p>
<p>When then-Fed Chair <a href="https://theconversation.com/paul-volcker-helped-shape-an-independent-federal-reserve-a-vital-legacy-thats-under-threat-128660">Paul Volcker</a> fought domestic inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, he did so with aggressive interest rate hikes that pushed up the cost of borrowing around the world. It contributed to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2019-12-10/paul-volcker-death-he-left-a-complicated-legacy-in-latin-america?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner&sref=Hjm5biAW">debt crises for 16 Latin American countries</a> and led to what became known in the region as the “lost decade” – a period of economic stagnation and soaring poverty.</p>
<p>The current rate increases are not of the same order as those of the early 1980s, when rates <a href="https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/history-of-federal-funds-rate/">rose to nearly 20%</a>. But rates are high enough to prompt fears among economists. The World Bank’s most recent <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/content">Global Economic Prospects</a> report included a whole section on the spillover from U.S. interest rates to developing nations. It noted: “The rapid rise in interest rates in the United States poses a significant challenge to [emerging markets and developing economies],” adding that the result was “higher likelihood” of financial crises among vulnerable economies.</p>
<h2>Widening the wealth gap</h2>
<p>Research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105635">I conducted with others</a> suggests that the kind of financial crises hinted at by the World Bank – currency depreciation and debt distress – can rip the social fabric of developing countries by increasing poverty and income inequality.</p>
<p>Income inequality is at an all-time high – both within individual countries and between the richer and developing countries. The 2022 <a href="https://wir2022.wid.world/">World Inequality Report</a> notes that, currently, the richest 10% of individuals globally take home 52% of all global income, while the poorest half of the global population receives a mere 8.5%. And such a wealth gap is deeply corrosive for societies: Inequality of income and wealth has been shown to both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887109990074">harm democracy</a> and <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1017/S0022381613001229">reduce popular support for democratic institutions</a>. It has also been linked to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313503179">political violence</a> and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4145353">corruption</a>.</p>
<p>Financial crises – such as the kind that higher interest rates in the U.S. may spark – increase the chance of economic slowdowns or even recessions. Worryingly, the World Bank has warned that developing nations face a “<a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/01/10/global-economic-prospects">multi-year period of slow growth</a>” that will only increase rates of poverty. And history has shown that the impact of such economic conditions fall hardest on lower-skilled low-income people.</p>
<p>These effects are <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/austerity.asp">compounded by government policies</a>, such as cuts in spending and government services, which, again, disproportionately hit the less well-off. And if a country is struggling to pay back sovereign debt as a result of higher global interest rates, then it also has less cash to help its poorest citizens.</p>
<p>So in a very real sense, a period of higher interest rates in the U.S. can have a detrimental effect on the economic, political and social well-being of developing nations.</p>
<p>There is a caveat, however. With inflation in the U.S. slowing, further interest rate increases may be limited. It could be the case that regardless of whether Fed policy has threaded the needle of slowing the U.S. economy but not by too much, it has nonetheless sown the seeds of more potentially severe economic – and social – woes in poorer nations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210006/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cristina Bodea does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Almost two-thirds of low-income countries are at risk of debt distress – in part because of higher borrowing costs. And that isn’t the only problem.Cristina Bodea, Professor of Political Science, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2079592023-07-03T11:51:47Z2023-07-03T11:51:47ZThe Global South is on the rise – but what exactly is the Global South?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534689/original/file-20230628-19-ibxriy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The world turned upside down</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/global-south-royalty-free-illustration/1456945486?phrase=%22global+south%22&adppopup=true">iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The unwillingness of many leading countries <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijing-new-york-city-billionaires-comparison-2021-4#:%7E:text=new%20billionaire%20capital.-,For%20the%20first%20time%20ever%2C%20Beijing%20is%20home%20to%20more,City's%2099%20billionaires%2C%20per%20Forbes.">in Africa</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/india-remaining-neutral-russias-invasion-ukraine/story?id=97891228">Asia</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/world/americas/brazil-ukraine-weapons.html">and Latin America</a> to stand with NATO over the war in Ukraine has brought to the fore once again the term “Global South.”</p>
<p>“Why does so much of the Global South support Russia?” <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/03/29/why-does-so-much-of-the-global-south-support-russia-not-ukraine">inquired one recent headline</a>; “Ukraine courts ‘Global South’ in push to challenge Russia,” <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/23/ukraine-courts-global-south-in-push-to-challenge-russia">declared another</a>.</p>
<p>But what is meant by that term, and why has it gained currency in recent years?</p>
<p>The Global South refers to various countries around the world that are <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2015/01/04/372684438/if-you-shouldnt-call-it-the-third-world-what-should-you-call-it">sometimes described as “developing</a>,” “less developed” or “underdeveloped.” Many of these countries – although by no means all – are in the Southern Hemisphere, largely in Africa, Asia and Latin America.</p>
<p>In general, they are poorer, have higher levels of income inequality and suffer lower life expectancy and harsher living conditions <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/global-south-countries">than countries in the “Global North</a>” — that is, richer nations that are located mostly in North America and Europe, with some additions in Oceania and elsewhere.</p>
<h2>Going beyond the ‘Third World’</h2>
<p>The term Global South appears to have been first used in 1969 by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/14/us/carl-oglesby-antiwar-leader-in-1960s-dies-at-76.html">political activist Carl Oglesby</a>. Writing in the <a href="https://aesop-planning.eu/images/uploads/special_issue_final-theories-gloabl-south.pdf">liberal Catholic magazine Commonweal</a>, Oglesby argued that the war in Vietnam was the culmination of a history of northern “dominance over the global south.”</p>
<p>But it was only after the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/collapse-soviet-union#:%7E:text=On%20December%2025%2C%201991%2C%20the,the%20newly%20independent%20Russian%20state.">1991 breakup of the Soviet Union</a> – which marked the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/second-world-countries">end of the so-called “Second World</a>” – that the term gained momentum.</p>
<p>Until then, the more common term for developing nations – countries that had yet to industrialize fully – was “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3180660">Third World</a>.”</p>
<p>That term was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1990/11/01/obituaries/alfred-sauvy-expert-on-demographics-92.html">coined by Alfred Sauvy</a> in 1952, in an analogy with France’s historical three estates: the nobility, the clergy and the bourgeoisie. The term “First World” referred to the advanced capitalist nations; the “Second World,” to the socialist nations led by the Soviet Union; and the “Third World,” to developing nations, many at the time still under the colonial yoke.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/mar/28/peter-worsley">Sociologist Peter Worsley</a>’s 1964 book, “<a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/T/bo4432964.html">The Third World: A Vital New Force in International Affairs</a>,” further popularized the term. The book also made note of the “Third World” forming the backbone of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-non-aligned-movement-in-the-21st-century-66057">Non-Aligned Movement</a>, which had been founded just three years earlier as a riposte to bipolar Cold War alignment.</p>
<p>Though Worsley’s view of this “Third World” was positive, the term became associated with countries plagued by poverty, squalor and instability. “Third World” became a synonym for banana republics ruled by tinpot dictators – a <a href="https://cyber.harvard.edu/digitaldemocracy/mezzana.htm">caricature spread by Western media</a>.</p>
<p>The fall of the Soviet Union – and with it the end of the so-called Second World – gave a convenient pretext for the term “Third World” to disappear, too. Usage of the term fell rapidly in the 1990s.</p>
<p>Meanwhile “developed,” “developing” and “underdeveloped” <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2015/01/04/372684438/if-you-shouldnt-call-it-the-third-world-what-should-you-call-it">also faced criticism</a> for holding up Western countries as the ideal, while portraying those outside that club as backwards.</p>
<p>Increasingly the term that was being used to replace them was the more neutral-sounding “Global South.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph shows a line depicting usage of the term 'Third World' which bulges in the mid 1980s." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chart shows the usage over time of ‘Global South,’ Third World,‘ and 'Developing countries’ in English language sources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=Global+South%2CThird+World%2CDeveloping+countries&year_start=1945&year_end=2019&corpus=en-2019&smoothing=3">Google Books Ngram Viewer</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Geopolitical, not geographical</h2>
<p>The term “Global South” is not geographical. In fact, the Global South’s two largest countries – China and India – lie entirely in the Northern Hemisphere. </p>
<p>Rather, its usage denotes a mix of political, geopolitical and economic commonalities between nations.</p>
<p>Countries in the Global South were mostly at the receiving end of imperialism and colonial rule, with African countries as perhaps the most visible example of this. It gives them a very different outlook on what <a href="https://www.e-ir.info/2016/11/23/dependency-theory-a-useful-tool-for-analyzing-global-inequalities-today/">dependency theorists</a> have described as the relationship between the center and periphery in the world political economy – or, to put it in simple terms, the relationship between “the West and the rest.” </p>
<p>Given the imbalanced past relationship between many of the countries of the Global South and the Global North – both during the age of empire and the Cold War – it is little wonder that today many opt <a href="https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/02/27/non-alignment-is-back-in-the-global-south-albeit-in-a-different-incarnation/">not to be aligned with any one great power</a>.</p>
<p>And whereas the terms “Third World” and “underdeveloped” convey images of economic powerlessness, that isn’t true of the “Global South.”</p>
<p>Since the turn of the 21st century, a “<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/shaping-the-asia-pacific-economic-order-2/">shift in wealth</a>,” as<a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/554911468179972438/pdf/96467-PUB-PUBLIC-Box391437B-9781464803550-EMBARGOED-19May2015-930am.pdf"> the World Bank has referred</a> to it, from the North Atlantic to Asia Pacific has upended much of the conventional wisdom on where the world’s riches are being generated.</p>
<p>By 2030 <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-to-fall-behind-china-within-a-year-standard-chartered-says-2019-1">it is projected</a> that three of the four largest economies will be from the Global South – with the order being China, India, the United States and Indonesia. Already the GDP in terms of purchasing power of the the Global South-dominated BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/03/27/the-brics-has-overtaken-the-g7-in-global-gdp/">surpasses that of the Global North’s G7 club</a>. And there are now <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijing-new-york-city-billionaires-comparison-2021-4#:%7E:text=new%20billionaire%20capital.-,For%20the%20first%20time%20ever%2C%20Beijing%20is%20home%20to%20more,City's%2099%20billionaires%2C%20per%20Forbes.">more billionaires in Beijing</a> than in New York City. </p>
<h2>Global South on the march</h2>
<p>This economic shift has gone hand in hand with enhanced political visibility. Countries in the Global South are increasingly asserting themselves on the global scene – be it <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-longterm-partnership-with-us-fades-saudi-arabia-seeks-to-diversify-its-diplomacy-and-recent-deals-with-china-iran-and-russia-fit-this-strategy-202211">China’s brokering of Iran and Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement</a> or Brazil’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/americas/brazil-lula-ukraine-peace-coalition-intl-latam/index.html">attempt to push a peace plan</a> to end the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>This shift in economic and political power has led experts in geopolitics like <a href="https://www.paragkhanna.com/">Parag Khanna</a> and <a href="https://mahbubani.net/">Kishore Mahbubani</a> to write about the <a href="https://www.paragkhanna.com/book/the-future-is-asian-commerce-conflict-and-culture-in-the-21st-century/">coming of an “Asian Century</a>.” Others, like political scientist <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/2031">Oliver Stuenkel</a>, have began <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/op-ed/2017/04/29/making-the-most-of-a-post-western-world">talking about a “post-Western world</a>.”</p>
<p>One thing is for sure: The Global South is flexing political and economic muscles that the “developing countries” and the “Third World” never had.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jorge Heine is a Wilson Center Global Fellow and a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for China and Globalization and a former Chilean ambassador to China, to India and to South Africa.</span></em></p>Terms like ‘Third World’ and ‘developing nations’ have long fallen out of fashion.Jorge Heine, Interim Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2082452023-06-21T15:11:19Z2023-06-21T15:11:19ZParis hosts summit to secure debt relief and climate cash for developing countries<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533214/original/file-20230621-14551-utzvta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C0%2C1914%2C1302&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The rise in extreme weather events dent into developing countries' budget and raise their debt interest rates.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/various-currencies-from-several-different-countries-4695995/">Pexels/Karthikeyan Perumal</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On 22 and 23 June, Paris is hosting a summit for a “New Global Financing Pact” at the Palais Brogniart. Heads of state, international organisations and representatives of civil society will be gathering to discuss ways to boost solidarity toward the Global South. The aim is also to contribute to the international agenda on <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/climate-finance-23005">development and climate financing</a>, a few months after the UN climate summit, COP27, left a mixed record.</p>
<p>The summit comes at a time when the budgetary margins and debt sustainability in a number of countries have been undermined by a succession of crises: pandemics, Russia’s war on Ukraine, inflation, rising global interest rates, etc. Yet the need for funds that promote low-carbon development, as well as adaptation to increasing climate disruption, is as pressing as ever. Many developing countries are having to reckon with an ever-growing number of natural hazards, at a time of acute socio-economic vulnerability.</p>
<p>However, the financial situations of developing countries vary: some, such as Sri Lanka, Ghana and Suriname, already have unsustainable public debt that needs to be restructured. Others can still access cash without compromising their sustainability, such as Egypt.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532883/original/file-20230620-23-veiebv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo of the Palais Brogniart, in Paris" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532883/original/file-20230620-23-veiebv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532883/original/file-20230620-23-veiebv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532883/original/file-20230620-23-veiebv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532883/original/file-20230620-23-veiebv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532883/original/file-20230620-23-veiebv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532883/original/file-20230620-23-veiebv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532883/original/file-20230620-23-veiebv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Paris’ Palais Brogniart is hosting the summit for a ‘New Global Financing Pact’ on 22 and 23 June 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ancienne_Bourse_%C3%A0_Paris.JPG">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/08/11/Debt-for-Climate-Swaps-Analysis-Design-and-Implementation-522184">study</a> carried out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2022 on 128 low- and middle-income countries revealed a strong correlation between exposure to climate risks and limited budgetary capacity. The climate crisis and the budget crisis have a habit of feeding each other: coping with a crisis puts a strain on public finances, and new funding is needed to adapt to climate change. Taking on more debt also means taking on more debt at higher costs. Developing countries are therefore in danger of entering into a <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/26007;jsessionid=B66C42EF4406FCFDC228C1BB61EBE218">vicious circle</a>.</p>
<h2>Increasingly complex debt restructuring</h2>
<p>On top of ad hoc restructuring for countries facing particular constraints, several debt restructuring or suspension initiatives were launched in 2000 in response to more widespread debt situations. The <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2023/Debt-relief-under-the-heavily-indebted-poor-countries-initiative-HIPC">Heavily Indebted Poor Countries</a> (HIPC) initiative, established in 1996 by the IMF and World Bank, and the 2005 <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/mdri/eng/index.htm">Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative</a> (MDRI) are notable examples. Broadly speaking, these schemes aim to cancel a share of public debt in return for a commitment that the sums released will go toward beneficiaries’ development goals, in areas such as health, education and poverty reduction.</p>
<p>During the Covid-19 pandemic, the G20 countries also adopted the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/debt/brief/debt-service-suspension-initiative-qas">Debt Suspension Initiative</a> (DSI), which sets out to suspend the debt repayments of 73 of the world’s poorest countries.</p>
<p>At the origin of the HIPC initiative and the DSI was the <a href="https://clubdeparis.org/en/communications/page/who-are-the-members-of-the-paris-club">Paris Club</a> (CDP). Composed of 22 bilateral creditors, mainly from developed countries, the informal group worked with the IMF and World Bank to establish rules to renegotiate the external public debt of over-indebted countries. However, CDP creditors are no longer the most important players, dwarfed by “new”, non-member bilateral creditors, such as China and India.</p>
<p>Beyond budgetary capacity, it is developing countries’ <a href="https://www.afd.fr/fr/ressources/pays-emergents-et-en-developpement-letau-se-resserre">public debt structure that has gradually changed</a>. By doubling over the last decade, the debts of developing countries have also opened up to new creditors from the private sector and emerging countries such as China, India, Russia, Turkey and the countries of the Middle East. The restructuring process has thus become even more complex.</p>
<p>In response to this new international context, the G20 countries have set up a <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/02/blog120221the-g20-common-framework-for-debt-treatments-must-be-stepped-up">“Common Framework for Debt Treatment”</a>, enabling countries eligible for the DSI to request a restructuring of their debt in case of persistent financing deficits. This new body paves the way for better coordination between bilateral creditors who are members and non-members of the CDP.</p>
<p>However, the global framework for debt restructuring has so far had little impact on climate issues, with climate investment often an afterthought.</p>
<h2>Vulnerable countries in demand</h2>
<p>Innovative financial instruments for combining finance and climate change are on the rise. Debt-for-climate swaps (such as <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/12/14/swapping-debt-for-climate-or-nature-pledges-can-help-fund-resilience"><em>Debt for Climate Swap</em></a> have been back in the spotlight in recent years, focusing not only on the fight against global heating, but also on protecting nature. The idea is that the government of the debtor country undertakes to spend the equivalent of the cancelled debt on projects to fight climate change, under conditions agreed between the creditors and the debtor country. A growing number of research groups, civil society groups and, to a lesser extent, international institutions, are advocating similar solutions to combat both climate change and rising public debt.</p>
<p>Recent global shocks have led to a certain consensus that the international financial system may no longer be equipped to handle current global challenges. Many are unimpressed by efforts to finance the decarbonisation of the economy and climate adaptation. As a result, several countries called for <a href="https://www.eurodad.org/un_general_assembly_2021_debt_highlights">reform of this financial architecture</a> at the UN General Assembly in 2021, in particular by asking for debt restructuring to be linked to climate objectives.</p>
<p>This call was echoed at COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021, notably by the <a href="https://drgr.org/statement/v20/">V20 countries</a> (<em>vulnerable twenty group</em>). Now comprising <a href="https://www.v-20.org/members">58 nations</a>, the group accounts for 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and yet are at the receiving end of climate change. They have called for large-scale debt relief.</p>
<p>The prime minister of Barbados has also presented the <a href="https://www.foreign.gov.bb/the-2022-barbados-agenda/">Bridgetown Agenda for Reform of the Global Financial Architecture</a>, with a view to directing global funds toward low-carbon, climate-resilient development, in a way that would also tackle developing countries’ sovereign debt.</p>
<h2>Even more complexity?</h2>
<p>The richest countries have also proposed ideas. At the end of the <a href="https://live.worldbank.org/annual-meetings-2022">76th annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF</a> in October 2022, the G7, joined by Australia, the Netherlands and Switzerland, set out its proposals for reforming the World Bank.</p>
<p>Much indicates 2023 will be a year of reform for development finance, with many events slated to reflect on these issues.</p>
<p>Calls for reform of the global framework have been around since the globalisation of financial markets, however – no single institution is responsible for global financial movements. Institutions, both international (IMF, World Bank, World Trade Organisation, etc.) and regional (OECD, European Commission, Bank for International Settlements, etc.), are numerous, while the private sector is expanding.</p>
<p>Beyond the debate over the role these institutions should play and whether or not it is useful to introduce international standards and controls, it would be wise to bear in mind that any new development finance initiative will remain vulnerable to changes in the international financial architecture, which is forever subject to negotiation and regulation. The challenge is also to ensure that the introduction of new instruments does not add yet more complexity to the management of developing countries’ debts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208245/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>This week’s summit for a “New Global Financing Pact” will look to secure some much-needed climate cash for developing countries, while ensuring their debt remains manageable.Emmanuelle Mansart-Monat, Économiste risque pays, Agence française de développement (AFD)Djedjiga Kachenoura, Coordinatrice du projet de recherche sur la finance et le climat, Agence française de développement (AFD)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2055192023-06-01T12:30:26Z2023-06-01T12:30:26ZWar in Ukraine might give the Chinese yuan the boost it needs to become a major global currency – and be a serious contender against the US dollar<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528317/original/file-20230525-29-2upko8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">China and the U.S. compete to be the world's largest economy, but the dollar dominates the yuan as a currency.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/sino-us-trade-war-royalty-free-image/1216692156">peng song/Moment Collection/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Chinese economy’s sheer size and rapid growth are impressive.</p>
<p>China maintained one of the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview#1">highest economic growth rates</a> in the world for more than a quarter of a century, helping lift <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/01/lifting-800-million-people-out-of-poverty-new-report-looks-at-lessons-from-china-s-experience">over 800 million people</a> out of poverty in just a few decades. The country is the <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/CHN">largest exporter in the world</a> and the most important trading partner of Japan, Germany, Brazil and many other countries. It has the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD">second-largest economy</a> after the U.S., based on the market exchange rate, and the largest <a href="https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/GDP_PPP.pdf">based on purchasing power</a>.</p>
<p>And yet the yuan still lags as a major global currency. The war in Ukraine, which started in February 2022, may change that. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.loyola.edu/sellinger-business/faculty-research/directory/chuluun">professor of finance</a> and <a href="https://www.mheducation.com/highered/product/international-financial-management-eun-resnick/1264413092.html">expert on international finance</a>, I understand how this geopolitical conflict may put China’s currency on the next phase of its path to becoming a global currency – and prompt the onset of the decline of the U.S. dollar from <a href="https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx22_fx.htm">its current dominance</a>. </p>
<h2>Chinese yuan’s slow progress</h2>
<p>China has long wanted to make the yuan a global force and has mounted significant efforts to do so in recent years. </p>
<p>For example, the Chinese government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-economy-yuan/china-launches-yuan-cross-border-interbank-payment-system-idUKKCN0S204320151008">launched the Cross-Border Interbank Payments System</a>, or CIPS, in 2015 to facilitate cross-border payments in yuan. Three years later, in 2018, it launched the world’s <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-03/26/c_137065815.htm">first yuan-denominated crude oil futures contracts</a> to allow exporters to sell oil in yuan. </p>
<p>China has also emerged perhaps as the <a href="https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-much-money-does-the-world-owe-china">world’s largest creditor</a>, with the government and state-controlled enterprises extending loans to dozens of developing countries. And China is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/economy/china-digital-yuan-government-salary-intl-hnk/index.html">developing a digital yuan</a> as one of the world’s first central bank digital currencies. Even the trading hours for the yuan were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/china-yuan-trading/update-1-china-to-extend-fx-market-trading-hours-to-further-internationalise-yuan-idINL1N33K0GJ">recently extended</a> on the mainland.</p>
<p>Thanks to these efforts, the yuan is now the <a href="https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx22_fx.htm">fifth-most-traded currency</a> in the world. That is a phenomenal rise from its <a href="https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx02.htm">35th place in 2001</a>. The yuan is also the <a href="https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/rmb-tracker-document-centre">fifth-most-actively used currency</a> for global payments as of April 2023, up from 30th place in early 2011. </p>
<p>Rankings can be misleading, though. The yuan’s average trading volume is still <a href="https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx22_fx.htm">less than a 10th</a> of the U.S. dollar’s. Moreover, almost all trading was against the U.S. dollar, with little trading against other currencies.</p>
<p>And when it comes to global payments, the actual share of the yuan is a <a href="https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/rmb-tracker-document-centre">mere 2.3%</a>, compared with 42.7% for the dollar and 31.7% for the euro. The yuan also constituted <a href="https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4">less than 3%</a> of the world foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2022, compared with 58% for the dollar and 20% for the euro.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men shake hands in front of Russian and Chinese flags" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528318/original/file-20230525-27-sg2yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528318/original/file-20230525-27-sg2yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528318/original/file-20230525-27-sg2yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528318/original/file-20230525-27-sg2yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528318/original/file-20230525-27-sg2yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528318/original/file-20230525-27-sg2yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528318/original/file-20230525-27-sg2yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 24, 2023, with the two countries signing a new set of trade agreements.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/russian-prime-minister-mikhail-mishustin-meets-with-chinas-news-photo/1257684729">Alexander Astafyev/Sputnik/AFP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>US dollar’s dominance questioned</h2>
<p>The U.S. dollar has reigned supreme as the dominant global currency for decades – and concern about how that benefits the U.S. and potentially hurts emerging markets <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/gopinath/publications/dominant-currency-paradigm-0">is not new</a>. </p>
<p>The value of the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/recession-worries-could-support-dollar-after-monstrous-2022-rally-2022-12-08/">U.S. dollar appreciated significantly</a> against most other currencies in 2022 as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. This had negative consequences for residents of almost any country that borrows in dollars, pays for imports in dollars, or buys wheat, oil or other commodities priced in dollars, as these transactions became more expensive. </p>
<p>After Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, the U.S. and its Western allies put sanctions on Russia, <a href="https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/message-swift-community">including cutting Russia’s access</a> to the global dollar-based payments system known as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT. That clearly displayed how the dollar can be weaponized. </p>
<p>With Russia largely cut off from international financial markets, it stepped up its trade with China. Russia began <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/06/energy/china-russian-gas-payments-ruble-yuan/index.html">receiving payments for coal and gas in yuan</a>, and Moscow <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/permitted-share-chinas-yuan-russian-wealth-fund-doubled-60-finmin-2022-12-30/">increased the yuan holdings</a> in its foreign currency reserves. Russian companies like Rosneft <a href="https://www.rosneft.com/press/releases/item/212071/">issued bonds denominated in yuan</a>. According to Bloomberg, the yuan is now the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/china-s-yuan-replaces-dollar-as-most-traded-currency-in-russia">most-traded currency in Russia</a>.</p>
<p>Other countries took notice of Russia’s increasing use of the yuan and saw an opportunity to decrease their own dependency on the dollar.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bangladesh-pay-russia-yuan-nuclear-plant-2023-04-17/">Bangladesh is now paying Russia in yuan</a> for the construction of a nuclear power station. <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-completes-first-yuan-settled-lng-trade">France is accepting payment in yuan for liquefied natural gas</a> bought from China’s state-owned oil company. A Brazilian bank controlled by a Chinese state bank is becoming the first Latin American bank to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-30/brazil-takes-steps-to-transact-in-yuan-as-ties-with-china-grow#xj4y7vzkg">participate directly in China’s payments system, CIPS</a>. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-22/iraq-pivots-to-yuan-for-china-imports-in-defense-of-own-currency#xj4y7vzkg">Iraq wants to pay for imports from China in yuan</a>, and even Tesco, the British retailer, <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2013/02/09/yuan-for-the-money">wants to pay for its Chinese imported goods in yuan</a>. </p>
<p>The combined dollar amount of these transactions is still relatively small, but the shift to yuan is significant.</p>
<h2>Yuan still not freely available</h2>
<p>China keeps <a href="https://www.safe.gov.cn/en/2023/0222/2067.html">a tight grip</a> on money coming in and out of the country. Such capital controls and limited transparency in Chinese financial markets mean China still lacks the deep and free financial markets that are required to make the yuan a major global currency. </p>
<p>For the yuan to achieve a truly global standing, it needs to be freely available for cross-border investment and not just serve as a payment medium to accommodate trade. </p>
<p>But the war in Ukraine may have just made it feasible for the yuan to eventually join the ranks of the dollar and the euro – even if the volume isn’t there yet. And any U.S. policy decisions that weaken the reputation and strength of U.S. institutions – such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/voters-want-compromise-in-congress-so-why-the-brinkmanship-over-the-debt-ceiling-206465">the recent drama over raising the debt ceiling</a>, which brought the government to the brink of default – will accelerate the rise of the yuan and decline of the dollar.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205519/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tuugi Chuluun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite China’s economic power, the yuan lags as a major global currency. Here’s why current US interest rates and sanctions on Russia may change that.Tuugi Chuluun, Associate Professor of Finance, Loyola University MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041532023-04-27T15:28:38Z2023-04-27T15:28:38ZHow dirty old used cars from the US and Europe carry on polluting … in Africa – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521946/original/file-20230419-26-f2kde2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=164%2C203%2C6307%2C4104&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Used cars that get exported from places like Europe, Japan and the U.S. are most often shipped to countries in Africa where they are resold. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/second-hand-cars-are-seen-on-september-16-2022-on-display-news-photo/1243394733?adppopup=true">Yanick Folly/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The typical car will go for its last drive sometime between its <a href="https://www.aarp.org/auto/trends-technology/how-long-do-cars-last/">10th and 15th year on Earth</a>. At this point, the vast majority are sent to be recycled or sold for parts. But for a few autos, a second lease on life awaits, as a significant percentage are <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghana-wants-fewer-polluting-old-cars-on-the-road-but-its-going-about-it-the-wrong-way-198805">exported from richer nations to developing nations</a> for a few more years on the road. </p>
<p>In countries across Africa and Latin America, old used cars from places like the U.S. and Europe provide vital access to transportation to people who would otherwise be unable to afford their own vehicles. While this process extends the lives of these cars, the practice is not without problems, in particular with regards to pollution and passenger safety. </p>
<p>In this episode of The Conversation Weekly, we speak with two researchers about why richer countries export used cars, what impacts they have in developing nations and whether import restrictions are effectively stemming the rise in pollution and accidents caused by this practice.</p>
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<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ipjfrosAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">Paul Bledsoe</a> is adjunct professorial lecturer at the Center for Environmental Policy at the American University in the U.S., where he specializes in energy, natural resources and climate change.</p>
<p>He says that “the process of retiring still-functioning cars off the road is going to speed up as electric vehicles become cheaper to buy and operate. And so when that happens, you may see a huge influx of used combustion-engine vehicles hitting the secondary market.” Bledsoe is concerned that, without the adequate policies in place, developing nations could see pollution skyrocket over the next decade as a result.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ui5w_DoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Festival Godwin Boateng</a> is a research fellow at the Center for Sustainable Urban Development, at Columbia University in the U.S. He studies sustainable development in Africa through a postcolonial lens and has looked into the issue of old cars.</p>
<p>“Between 2015 and 2018 some 14 million used vehicles were exported from the European Union, Japan, and the U.S., with 40% of them ending up in African countries,” explains Boateng. “Just in Ghana, for every hundred vehicles on the road, 80 to 90 are used vehicles.”</p>
<p>While Festival recognized that used cars fill an important gap in providing transportation opportunities in Ghana, he says over 50% of used cars are over 15 years old. “So they tend to be really old and highly polluting. And to make matters waste, they tend to do modifications to these vehicles, which make them even more polluting.”</p>
<p>In an effort to combat the harms of old cars, in 2020, Ghana passed a new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100384">law aiming to restrict the import of cars</a> that are more than 10 years old. With exports of old cars expected to increase as electric vehicles take over Western markets, policies like the law Ghana passed in 2020 may become more relevant.</p>
<p>Listen to the full episode of The Conversation Weekly to learn more about how old cars get to places like Ghana, the mixed bag of benefits and harms they have once they arrive and the ways to improve this situation.</p>
<hr>
<p>This episode was written and produced by Mend Mariwany, who is also the executive producer of The Conversation Weekly. Eloise Stevens does our sound design, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl.</p>
<p>You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/">theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. You can also subscribe to The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter">free daily email here</a>. A transcript of this episode will be available soon.</p>
<p>Listen to “The Conversation Weekly” via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a> or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204153/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Bledsoe consults for the Progressive Policy Institute, and is president of Bledsoe & Associates, LLC, a strategic public policy firm specializing in energy, natural resources and climate change, among other issues.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Festival Godwin Boateng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Older imported cars pose risks to motorists and spew pollution. Some countries, including Ghana, are taking steps to limit the harms of this piece of the vehicle life cycle.Mend Mariwany, Producer, The Conversation Weekly, The Conversation Weekly PodcastDaniel Merino, Associate Science Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2023872023-04-17T20:03:48Z2023-04-17T20:03:48ZPoorer countries must be compensated for climate damage. But how exactly do we crunch the numbers?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518641/original/file-20230331-16-w3md7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C0%2C3970%2C2652&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thoko Chikondi/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the planet warms, a key concern in international climate negotiations is to compensate developing nations for the damage they suffer. But which nations should receive money? And which extreme weather events were influenced by climate change?</p>
<p>Most nations last year signed up to an <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-key-outcomes-progress-on-compensation-for-developing-countries-but-more-needed-on-climate-justice-and-equity-195017">agreement</a> to establish a so-called “loss and damage” fund. It <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/what-you-need-know-about-cop27-loss-and-damage-fund">would provide</a> a means for developed nations – which are disproportionately responsible for greenhouse gas emissions – to <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/loss-and-damage-and-climate-financing/">provide money to</a> vulnerable nations dealing with the effects of climate change.</p>
<p>Part of the fund would help developing nations recover from catastrophic extreme weather. For example, it might be used to rebuild homes and hospitals after a floods or provide food and emergency cash transfers after a cyclone.</p>
<p>Some experts have <a href="https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000013">suggested</a> the science of “event attribution” could be used to determine how the funds are distributed. Event attribution attempts to determine the causes of extreme weather events – in particular, whether human-caused climate change played a part.</p>
<p>But as our <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01651-2">new paper</a> sets out, event attribution is not yet a good way to calculate compensation for nations vulnerable to climate change. An alternative strategy is needed. </p>
<h2>What is event attribution?</h2>
<p>Extreme weather events are complex and caused by multiple factors. The science of <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-climate-change-to-blame-for-extreme-weather-events-attribution-science-says-yes-for-some-heres-how-it-works-164941">extreme event attribution</a> primarily seeks to <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/extreme-event-attribution-climate-versus-weather-blame-game">work out</a> whether either human-caused climate change or natural variability in the climate contributed to these events.</p>
<p>For example, a recent study found the extreme rain that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64630183">triggered</a> New Zealand’s February flooding was up to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/heavy-rainfall-from-new-zealands-cyclone-gabrielle-more-common-on-warmer-planet/">30% more intense</a> due to human influence on the climate system.</p>
<p>Attribution science is progressing quickly. It’s increasingly focused on extreme rain events, which in the past have been tricky to study. But it’s still not a consistent and robust way to estimate the costs and impacts of extreme events.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">COP27: one big breakthrough but ultimately an inadequate response to the climate crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why can’t we use it?</h2>
<p>Event attribution science draws on both observational weather data and climate model simulations. </p>
<p>Most commonly, two types of climate model simulations are used: those that include the effects of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, and those that exclude them. Comparing the two types of simulations allows scientists to estimate how climate change influences the likelihood and severity of extreme events.</p>
<p>But climate models primarily simulate processes in the atmosphere and ocean. They don’t directly simulate the damage caused by an extreme weather event - such as how many people died due to a heatwave or infrastructure loss during a flood.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="turbulent ocean under stormy sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518644/original/file-20230331-26-4xhhkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518644/original/file-20230331-26-4xhhkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518644/original/file-20230331-26-4xhhkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518644/original/file-20230331-26-4xhhkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518644/original/file-20230331-26-4xhhkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518644/original/file-20230331-26-4xhhkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518644/original/file-20230331-26-4xhhkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate models primarily simulate processes in the atmosphere and ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To directly simulate the effects of an extreme event, we need to know the exact extent to which weather components such as temperature and rainfall caused damage.
In <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac44c8/meta">some cases</a>, this can be determined. But it requires high-quality data, such as hospital admissions, that’s rarely available in most parts of the world.</p>
<p>Also, climate models are not good at simulating some extreme events, such as thunderstorms or extreme winds. That’s because such events are sporadic and tend to occur across small areas. This makes them harder to model than, say, a heatwave that affects a large area.</p>
<p>So if “loss and damage” funding decisions relied too much on event attribution, then a low-income nation hit by a heatwave may receive more support than a nation damaged by storms or high winds, relative to the damage caused.</p>
<p>What’s more, event attribution is not yet able to estimate how climate change causes damage associated with so-called “<a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/what-is-a-compound-event-in-weather-and-climate/">compound</a>” extreme events. </p>
<p>Compound events refer to cases where more than one extreme event occurs simultaneously in neighbouring regions, or consecutively in a single region. Examples include a drought followed by a heatwave, or sea level rise which makes damage from a tsunami even worse.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/teaching-our-children-from-books-not-the-sea-how-climate-change-is-eroding-human-rights-in-vanuatu-192016">'Teaching our children from books, not the sea': how climate change is eroding human rights in Vanuatu</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How do we move forward?</h2>
<p>Event attribution is not yet advanced enough to calculate “loss and damage” from climate change.</p>
<p>Instead, our paper suggests “loss and damage” funds are used alongside foreign aid spending to support recovery in low-income nations following any extreme events where human-caused climate change may have played a role.</p>
<p>We also present four major recommendations for using event attribution to estimate “loss and damage” in future. These are:</p>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>Help developing countries use event attribution techniques</strong>: to date, event attribution has <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">largely been conducted</a> by wealthy countries in their own regions</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Address more types of extreme events</strong>: tornadoes, hailstorms and lightning are largely beyond the capability of climate models used in event attribution because they are localised and complex. New techniques to examine these events should be attempted</p></li>
<li><p><strong>More research into the impacts and costs of extreme events</strong>: few studies have attempted to attribute the costs of extreme events to climate change. Further efforts are needed, especially in low-income nations</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Combine event attribution with other knowledge</strong>: scientists and experts in aid and policymaking must collaborate on a strategy for using event attribution information. Better understanding of the needs of policymakers and the limitations of event attribution science could lead to more useful studies.</p></li>
</ol>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-white-colonisation-of-the-atmosphere-its-time-to-tackle-this-entrenched-racism-185579">Climate change is white colonisation of the atmosphere. It's time to tackle this entrenched racism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="foamy ocean crashes onto foreshore and car" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518646/original/file-20230331-14-hzsxo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518646/original/file-20230331-14-hzsxo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518646/original/file-20230331-14-hzsxo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518646/original/file-20230331-14-hzsxo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518646/original/file-20230331-14-hzsxo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518646/original/file-20230331-14-hzsxo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518646/original/file-20230331-14-hzsxo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Event attribution is not yet advanced enough to calculate ‘loss and damage’ from climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Halden Krog/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A growing burden</h2>
<p>Low-income nations have contributed relatively little to global emissions. Compensation from richer nations is vital to helping them manage the <a href="https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/cop27-presidency-announces-ambitous-climate-resilience-agenda/">growing burden</a> of climate harms. </p>
<p>But distributing these funds in a fair way is challenging. Until the field of event attribution advances, putting too much reliance on event attribution is a risky strategy. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors acknowledge the contribution of Izidine Pinto to the research underpinning this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202387/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joyce Kimutai receives funding from Kenya's Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Harrington receives funding from New Zealand's Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Grose receives funding from National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p>Extreme weather events are complex – and working out exactly how much damage climate change caused is a tricky task.Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneJoyce Kimutai, Climate Scientist, University of Cape TownLuke Harrington, Senior Lecturer in Climate Change, University of WaikatoMichael Grose, Climate projections scientist, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2029002023-03-30T12:27:44Z2023-03-30T12:27:44ZCan this former CEO fix the World Bank and solve the world’s climate finance and debt crises as the institution’s next president?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518289/original/file-20230329-28-7q3t3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C21%2C4848%2C3193&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ajay Banga is expected to become the next World Bank president.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/candidate-to-head-the-world-bank-ajay-banga-gestures-as-he-news-photo/1247854109">Issouf Sanogo/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past two years, a drumbeat of calls for reforming the World Bank has pushed its way onto the front pages of major newspapers and the agenda of heads of state.</p>
<p>Many low- and middle-income countries – the population the World Bank is tasked with helping – are falling deeper into debt and facing growing costs as the impacts of climate change increase in severity. A chorus of critics accuse the World Bank of <a href="https://www.bmz.de/en/news/press-releases/schulze-world-bank-annual-meetings-2022-125264">failing to evolve</a> to <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1258">meet the crises</a>.</p>
<p>The job of leading that reform now falls to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/02/23/biden-world-bank-nomination/">Ajay Banga</a>, an Indian American businessman and former CEO of Mastercard who was nominated by President Joe Biden to replace resigning World Bank President <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/climate/david-malpass-world-bank.html">David Malpass</a>. </p>
<p>Banga, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/03/30/closing-of-nominations-for-world-bank-group-president">the only candidate</a> for the job, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/05/03/ajay-banga-selected-14th-president-of-the-world-bank">was confirmed</a> by the World Bank’s <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/leadership/directors">executive directors</a> on May 3, 2023. His five-year term as president begins on June 2. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Ajay Banga, wearing a traditional Sikh turban and business suit, gestures as he speaks in front of a photo of workers picking vegetables." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518305/original/file-20230329-16-80inab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ajay Banga is a former Mastercard CEO, past chair of the International Chamber of Commerce and an American. The U.S. is the largest World Bank shareholder, and the institution’s president has historically been American.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/candidate-to-head-the-world-bank-ajay-banga-speaks-during-news-photo/1247898595">Tony Karumba/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is no shortage of advice for what Banga and the World Bank need to do.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-does-g20-do">G-20</a> recently <a href="https://www.dt.mef.gov.it/en/attivita_istituzionali/rapporti_finanziari_internazionali/banche_sviluppo/revisione_indipendente/">issued a report</a> urging the World Bank and the other multilateral development banks to loosen their lending restrictions to get more money flowing to countries in need. A commission led by economists <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/finance-for-climate-action-scaling-up-investment-for-climate-and-development/">Nicholas Stern and Vera Songwe</a> called for a rapid, sustained investment push that prioritizes transitioning to cleaner energy, achieving the <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">U.N. sustainable development goals</a> and meeting the needs of increasingly vulnerable countries. </p>
<p>African ministers of finance will soon come out with their own “to do” list for the World Bank, and India’s minister of finance just pulled together <a href="https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/business/2368216-india-has-been-talking-about-how-multilateral-institutions-need-reform-sitharaman">an expert group</a> to consider World Bank reform.</p>
<p>Banga will walk into the job with these and many other to-do lists. Yet he will inherit a corporate culture that makes the World Bank Group <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099845101112322078/pdf/SECBOS0f51975e0e809b7605d7b690ebd20.pdf">too inwardly focused</a> and <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-treasury-secretary-janet-l-yellen-addresses-evolution-development-finance-csis">too slow to respond</a>.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/staff/rachel-kyte">worked for the World Bank Group</a> and with it from the outside. I see four key roles – four “C’s” – that Banga will need to master from the outset. From his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/02/23/biden-world-bank-nomination/">track record</a> and his reputation for deep thoughtfulness, I am confident that he can.</p>
<h2>1) Act as a CEO and get the entire World Bank Group house in order.</h2>
<p>The World Bank Group <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/who-we-are">is a conglomerate</a> with four balance sheets, three cultures and four executive boards, plus a dispute resolution arm.</p>
<p>Lending to low- and middle-income countries is just part of its role. The World Bank Group also <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/who-we-are/ibrd">provides technical assistance</a> across all areas of economic development and invests in and provides <a href="https://www.miga.org/">risk insurance</a> to <a href="https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/corp_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/about+ifc_new">encourage companies to invest</a> in projects and places they might otherwise consider too risky. Its ability to mobilize private-sector finance and stretch every dollar is crucial for meeting the world’s development and climate adaptation and mitigation needs.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gKpTL8KVy1Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the World Bank operates.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Banga will need to set clear goals for each part of the World Bank Group and get them working more effectively to help the world achieve its goals.</p>
<h2>2) Assume the mantle of collaborator in chief to take on the debt and climate crises.</h2>
<p>Many of the World Bank Group’s <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/annual-report/our-work">client countries</a> are facing both mounting debt and rising costs from climate change. </p>
<p>The high <a href="https://developmentfinance.un.org/fsdr2022">cost of borrowing</a> can hamper developing countries’ ability to invest in needed infrastructure to grow and protect their economies, and they fear being locked out of global trade as the United States’ green subsidies in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-new-incentives-for-clean-energy-arent-enough-the-inflation-reduction-act-was-just-the-first-step-now-the-hard-work-begins-188693">Inflation Reduction Act</a> and Europe’s border carbon tax may make it <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-us-eu-trade-tensions-rise-conflicting-carbon-tariffs-could-undermine-climate-efforts-198072">more difficult for them to compete</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://gisbarbados.gov.bb/download/the-2022-barbados-agenda/">solutions</a> to cascading problems like these cannot be managed by one institution. However, the current multilateral development bank system – the World Bank Group and the <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/publication/regional-development-banks-abcs-ifis-brief">regional development banks</a> – is disjointed at best <a href="https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/156240/adbi-wp385.pdf">and competitive</a> at worst.</p>
<p><iframe id="xbAni" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xbAni/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In the past, the leaders of the development banks, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization have cooperated, more or less, depending on crises and personalities, and can move fast when they need to.</p>
<p>During the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, for example, the then-heads of the World Bank and the WTO hurried to <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd200916_e.pdf">develop trade finance facilities</a> to support banks in developing countries as capital fled to the U.S. and Europe. It took intense diplomacy to push wealthy countries and institutions to get money out the door <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/financial-trade/update-2-global-trade-finance-gap-widens-as-recession-bites-idUSLI4771620090318">to shore up businesses and trade</a>. Success was measured not in months but in days.</p>
<p>The new president of the World Bank will need to support more radical collaboration among development financial institutions, including pooling capital and talent, to help respond quickly to countries’ needs.</p>
<p>It won’t be easy. Institutional rivalries run deep. But with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-expects-bidens-nominee-ajay-banga-be-elected-world-bank-chief-2023-03-29">budgets tight</a>, there is growing clarity that there is no choice – <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-putins-war-and-small-islands-are-accelerating-the-global-shift-to-clean-energy-and-what-to-watch-for-in-2023-196925">the capital that is already in the system</a> is the closest at hand and can be deployed to better effect if the institutions are willing to adapt.</p>
<h2>3) Be a convener.</h2>
<p>Overhauling how international finance works will require everyone to be on board – development banks, central banks, regulators, investment banks, pension funds, insurance companies and private equity.</p>
<p>Banga and <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/About">International Monetary Fund</a> Managing Director <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/persons/kristalina-georgieva_en">Kristalina Georgieva</a> can settle institutional differences and present a coordinated face to private investors and the <a href="https://clubdeparis.org/en/communications/page/permanent-members">major lending countries</a>, including China – which has emerged as <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/china-is-owed-37-of-poor-countries-debt-payments-in-2022-world-bank-102463">the biggest holder</a> of developing country debt – to speed up support to struggling countries.</p>
<p>On other issues, such as <a href="https://www.iucn.org/our-work/nature-based-solutions">nature-based solutions to climate change</a>, building resilience and economic inclusion, the World Bank Group can bring its significant resources and skills, including data analysis, to global conversations that it has been painfully absent from for the past four years.</p>
<h2>4) Be a champion for the most vulnerable.</h2>
<p>The world’s most vulnerable people are the World Bank Group’s ultimate beneficiaries. For those living on the front line of biodiversity loss and climate impacts, such as extreme heat, drought and flooding, the current international financial system is proving inadequate.</p>
<p>The World Bank Group’s management incentives are still too oriented to lending approved by the board, not the outcomes of that lending, advice and assistance.</p>
<p>Throughout its history, World Bank leaders have been able to make <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd200916_e.pdf">rapid changes</a> to better help vulnerable countries when they stay close to the needs of their ultimate beneficiaries and the goals that the world has set.</p>
<p>The next president faces turbulent times. Banga’s careful listening on his campaign tour signals that he <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7f1046cc-10fe-4a29-a92b-f0955761477b">understands the complexity</a>. It’s an extraordinary moment in the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/world-bank-groups-role-global-development">history of the institution</a>, with sky-high expectations of what one leader needs to do.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published March 30, 2023, has been updated with Banga’s approval to become World Bank president.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte served in several roles at the World Bank Group from 2000 to 2015.</span></em></p>It’s a crucial time for the World Bank, with growing calls for reform and sky-high expectations of what one leader needs to do. A former World Bank official explains the challenges ahead.Rachel Kyte, Dean of the Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1951432023-01-19T13:36:34Z2023-01-19T13:36:34ZInstalling solar-powered refrigerators in developing countries is an effective way to reduce hunger and slow climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504538/original/file-20230114-18-l7fpil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C10%2C3642%2C2413&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People buy produce at a wholesale market in Nakuru, Kenya, on Dec. 24, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-buy-vegetables-at-a-wholesale-market-on-christmas-news-photo/1245820936">James Wakibia/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Food loss and waste are major problems around the world. When food is tossed aside or allowed to spoil, it makes economies less productive and leaves people hungry. </p>
<p>It also harms Earth’s climate by generating methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Food loss and waste accounts for <a href="https://coolcoalition.org/sustainable-food-cold-chains-report/">4% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. If food waste were a country, it would be the <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/report/unep-food-waste-index-report-2021">third-largest emitter in the world</a>, ahead of India and behind only China and the U.S.</p>
<p>Worldwide, 1.3 billion tons of food are <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/i2697e/i2697e.pdf">lost or wasted every year</a>. Earth’s population is projected to increase from <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130417">8 billion today</a> to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02522-6">roughly 10 billion by 2050</a>. Feeding that many people will require nations to increase agricultural production by <a href="https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/expert_paper/How_to_Feed_the_World_in_2050.pdf">more than 70%</a> and reduce food loss and waste.</p>
<p>Expanding <a href="https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cc0923en">food cold chains</a> to the world’s least-developed countries <a href="https://www.nutritioninsight.com/news/cop27-un-environment-programme-and-fao-flag-food-cold-chain-as-imperative-to-global-food-security.html">can have enormous impacts</a>. But it also raises concerns if it’s not done in a way that avoids contributing to climate change. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Investing in efficient, climate-friendly cold chain systems can simultaneously reduce food loss and climate change.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Existing refrigeration systems release hydrochlorofluorocarbons, or HCFCs, and hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, which are <a href="https://drawdown.org/solutions/refrigerant-management">extremely potent greenhouse gases</a>. Producing electricity with fossil fuels to power these systems also worsens climate change. For these reasons, exporting traditional cold chains to developing countries is not environmentally and socially sustainable. </p>
<p>Instead, developing countries need cold chains that run on renewable energy and use <a href="https://www.unep.org/ozonaction/refrigerant-management-0">alternative refrigerants</a> with lower climate impacts. As a scholar focusing on <a href="https://www.climatepolicylab.org/abay-yimere-1">sustainable development, green growth and climate change</a>, I believe that expanding cold chains in the developing world – particularly sub-Saharan Africa – will not only benefit the environment but also provide important social benefits, such as empowering women.</p>
<h2>Spoilage and contamination</h2>
<p>To understand why cold chains are so important, think about <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-mapped-how-food-gets-from-farms-to-your-home-125475">how food travels from the farm to your table</a>. First it is harvested and shipped to a wholesaler. Then it might go straight to retail stores, or to a food processing company to be cooked, frozen or canned. At each stage it may sit for periods lasting hours to days. If it is not held at a safe temperature, the food may spoil or become contaminated with bacteria that cause <a href="https://www.fsis.usda.gov/food-safety/foodborne-illness-and-disease">foodborne illnesses</a>.</p>
<p>In 2021, <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cc0639en/online/sofi-2022/food-security-nutrition-indicators.html">over 700 million people</a> were hungry around the world – 425 million in Asia, 278 million in Africa and 57 million in the Caribbean and Latin America. Many countries in these regions have minimal cold storage capacity to keep food from spoiling before it can be eaten. </p>
<p>Seafood, meat, milk and vegetables are highly reliant on cold food chains. Countries mainly in the developing world <a href="https://iifiir.org/en/fridoc/the-role-of-refrigeration-in-worldwide-nutrition-2009-131376">lose 23% of their perishable products</a> before they reach markets. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504540/original/file-20230114-25-upqija.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A boy holds rotten apples." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504540/original/file-20230114-25-upqija.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504540/original/file-20230114-25-upqija.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504540/original/file-20230114-25-upqija.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504540/original/file-20230114-25-upqija.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504540/original/file-20230114-25-upqija.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504540/original/file-20230114-25-upqija.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504540/original/file-20230114-25-upqija.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Road work in Kashmir in the fall of 2022 halted thousands of trucks carrying apples on the main highway connecting the disputed region with the rest of India, causing extensive losses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kashmiri-boy-holds-rotten-apples-in-his-hands-outside-an-news-photo/1243650085">Faisal Bashir/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Loss of cereal crops, which also <a href="https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/blog/charles-r-hurburgh/cooling-grain-impacts-grain-quality-and-shelf-life">benefit from cold storage</a>, are equally staggering. For instance, Ethiopia loses about one-third of its stored corn after five weeks due to lack of proper storage. In 2019, India’s Ministry of Food Processing Industries estimated that the country had lost or wasted 56 million tons of food, worth <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/documents/college-eps/energy/publications/india-third-agricultural-revolution-birmingham-energy-institute.pdf">about US$10 billion</a>, mainly due to lack of cold storage. </p>
<p>Inadequate postharvest management can lead to crop contamination and pest infestation. In Uganda, where most corn is grown by small farmers who lack proper facilities to dry and store it, contamination with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2019.108376">fungi that produce dangerous substances called aflatoxin</a> has been a significant human and animal health concern. </p>
<h2>Social benefits from cold storage</h2>
<p>Nearly 150 countries have adopted the <a href="https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=IND&mtdsg_no=XXVII-2-f&chapter=27&clang=_en">Kigali Amendment</a> to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. This measure, negotiated in 2016, is driving changes in the cooling energy sector by requiring nations to phase down use of HFCs. </p>
<p>The global cold chain market is worth $160 billion today and is projected to reach <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.est.2022.105958">$585 billion by 2026</a>. Solar-powered cold storage is a niche market today, but is poised for growth. </p>
<p>In addition to minimizing food loss and waste, increasing incomes, curbing land degradation and reducing greenhouse emissions, sustainable cold storage offers great benefits for women, who <a href="https://www.globalagriculture.org/report-topics/women-in-agriculture.html">produce 60% to 80% of crops</a> and are responsible for postharvest activities in most developing countries. </p>
<p>Research in climate finance shows that women may be disproportionately burdened by poverty because they have less access than men to assets and financial resources in many countries. However, since women play key roles in farming and managing food supplies, they are positioned to participate in the food cold chain business in remote and rural areas if the international community provides financial and technical support, thus <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.03.010">improving their economic status and livelihoods</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">ColdHubs is a company working to improve food cold chains in Nigeria.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Pilot projects show promise</h2>
<p>I see sub-Saharan Africa as an ideal candidate for the introduction of food cold chains, for several reasons. First, most of its food loss and waste occurs during harvest and postharvest stages. Installing sustainable cold chain systems at these stages can greatly reduce losses at an early point. </p>
<p>Second, much of the region lacks food cold chains. Investing here offers the opportunity to bypass conventional systems and leapfrog straight to sustainable designs.</p>
<p>In my view, a bottom-up approach starting at the farm level is the most viable strategy. Notably, dairy farmers in Uganda are organized into cooperatives, which have invested in cold chain storage. This made them much more resilient to commercial disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic than other sectors, such as fish and vegetables, which suffered heavy losses when producers <a href="https://www.thecattlesite.com/news/55898/cold-chains-help-mitigate-the-covid-19-food-crisis-lessons-from-uganda">could not get their products to markets</a>.</p>
<p>Nigeria has the highest yearly food loss and waste rate in Africa – 415 pounds (190 kilograms) per capita. In northern Nigeria, a <a href="https://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/134668/filename/134872.pdf">six-month pilot project</a> that installed solar-powered cold storage for seven small fruit and vegetable markets preserved the quality of the goods and enabled the markets to charge higher prices. </p>
<p>These systems generated estimated net profits of roughly $8,000 per year per market. Even at a 7% annual interest rate, such a system could recoup its $40,000 capital cost within a decade.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1494506047092019201"}"></div></p>
<p>Access to electricity is as low as <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/02/05/nigeria-to-improve-electricity-access-and-services-to-citizens">55% in some parts of Nigeria</a>, and most of its electricity comes from <a href="https://www.iea.org/articles/nigeria-energy-outlook">gas and oil</a>. Renewable-powered cold storage offers a cleaner alternative.</p>
<p>Other experiments have produced <a href="https://www.fao.org/flw-in-fish-value-chains/flw-in-fish-value-chainsresources/articles/renewable-energy-and-reducing-food-loss-and-waste-in-fish-value-chains/zh/">similar results</a> in northwest Kenya and in Indonesia’s Wakatobi islands, where 78% of the population relies on fish as a staple food. Solar-powered cold storage facilities helped these communities save money and reduce waste. </p>
<p>To promote efficient and climate-friendly cooling, including air conditioning and refrigeration, the United Nations Environmental Program has organized a <a href="https://coolcoalition.org/about/overview-and-history/">Global Cool Coalition</a> that includes cities, countries, businesses and international organizations. I see this partnership as a way to make progress on both <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">sustainable development</a> and <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27">climate change</a>. In my view, investing in renewable-powered cold chains in the world’s least-developed countries will help spur green growth, protect nature and feed the world’s hungry people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abay Yimere does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many developing nations have little cold storage and lose much of their perishable food before it gets to markets. Climate-friendly refrigeration can provide huge environmental and social benefits.Abay Yimere, Postdoctoral Scholar in International Environment and Resource Policy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1969252022-12-26T16:27:30Z2022-12-26T16:27:30ZHow Putin’s war and small islands are accelerating the global shift to clean energy, and what to watch for in 2023<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502452/original/file-20221221-21-8gdpg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5208%2C3072&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Workers install solar panels for a floating photovoltaic solar plant in Germany in April 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/worker-fixes-solar-panels-at-a-floating-photovoltaic-plant-news-photo/1240145689?phrase=germany%20solar&adppopup=true">Photo by Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The year 2022 was a tough one for the growing number of people living in food insecurity and energy poverty around the world, and the beginning of 2023 is looking bleak.</p>
<p>Russia’s war on Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain and fertilizer feedstock suppliers, tightened global <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/system-shock-russias-war-and-global-food-energy-and-mineral-supply-chains">food and energy supplies</a>, which in turn helped spur inflation.</p>
<p>Drought, exacerbated in some places by warring groups blocking food aid, pushed parts of the <a href="https://fews.net/horn-africa">Horn of Africa toward famine</a>. Extreme <a href="https://theconversation.com/2022s-supercharged-summer-of-climate-extremes-how-global-warming-and-la-nina-fueled-disasters-on-top-of-disasters-190546">weather disasters</a> have left trails of destruction with mounting costs on nearly every continent. More countries found themselves <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/12/response-debt-distress-africa-and-role-china">in debt distress</a>.</p>
<p>But below the surface of almost weekly bad news, significant changes are underway that have the potential to create a more sustainable world – one in which humanity can tackle climate change, species extinction and food and energy insecurity.</p>
<p>I’ve been <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/staff/rachel-kyte">involved in international sustainable development</a> for most of my career and now teach climate diplomacy. Here’s how two key systems that drive the world’s economy – energy and finance – are starting to shift toward sustainability and what to watch for in 2023.</p>
<h2>Ramping up renewable energy growth</h2>
<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine has reverberated through Europe and spread to other countries that have long been dependent on the region for natural gas. But while oil-producing countries and gas lobbyists are arguing for more drilling, global <a href="https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/renewable-projects-payback-time-drops-to-under-a-year-in-some-places-capital-inve">energy investments reflect a quickening</a> transition to cleaner energy.</p>
<p>Call it the Putin effect – Russia’s war is <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022">speeding up the global shift away from fossil fuels</a>.</p>
<p>In December, the International Energy Agency published two important reports that point to the future of renewable energy.</p>
<p>First, the IEA revised its projection of renewable energy growth upward by 30%. It now expects the world to <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-power-s-growth-is-being-turbocharged-as-countries-seek-to-strengthen-energy-security">install as much solar and wind</a> power in the next five years as it installed in the past 50 years.</p>
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<p>The second report showed that energy use is <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-efficiency-2022">becoming more efficient globally</a>, with efficiency increasing by about 2% per year. As energy analyst Kingsmill Bond at the energy research group RMI noted, the two reports together suggest that fossil fuel <a href="https://rmi.org/how-putins-war-marks-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/">demand may have peaked</a>. While some low-income countries have been eager for deals to tap their fossil fuel resources, the IEA warns that new fossil fuel production risks becoming stranded, or uneconomic, in the next 20 years.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022">main obstacles to the exponential growth</a> in renewable energy, IEA points out, are antiquated energy policy frameworks, regulations and subsidies written at a time when energy systems, pricing and utilities were all geared toward fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Look in 2023 for reforms, including countries wrestling with <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/smart-grids">how to permit smart grids</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/26/why-the-us-has-a-massive-power-line-problem.html">new transmission lines</a> and finding ways to reward consumers for efficiency and clean energy generation.</p>
<p>The year 2023 will also see more focus on developing talent for the clean energy infrastructure build-out. In the U.S., the recently passed <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-new-incentives-for-clean-energy-arent-enough-the-inflation-reduction-act-was-just-the-first-step-now-the-hard-work-begins-188693">Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law</a> will pour hundreds of billions of dollars into clean energy and technology. Europe’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/is-the-european-union-on-track-to-meet-its-repowereu-goals">REPowerEU commitments</a> will also boost investment. However, <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/12/05/eu-chief-flags-concerns-about-bidens-buy-american-climate-plans/">concerns about “buy American” rules</a> within the new U.S. climate laws and an EU plan to launch a <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/european-union-carbon-border-tax/">carbon border adjustment tax</a> are raising fears that nationalism in trade policy could harm the speed of green growth.</p>
<h2>Fixing international climate finance</h2>
<p>The second system to watch for reform in 2023 is international finance. It’s also crucial to how low-income countries develop their energy systems, build resilience and recover from climate disasters.</p>
<p>Wealthy nations haven’t moved the energy transition forward quickly enough or provided enough support for emerging markets and developing countries to leapfrog inefficient fossil-fueled energy systems. <a href="https://sdgpulse.unctad.org/debt-sustainability/">Debt is ballooning</a> in low-income countries, and climate change and disasters like the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/world/asia/pakistan-floods.html">devastating flooding in Pakistan</a> wipe out growth and add costs.</p>
<p>Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley has brought together international financial institutions with think tanks and philanthropists <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/09/23/mia-mottley-builds-global-coalition-to-make-financial-system-fit-for-climate-action/">to push for changes</a>.</p>
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<img alt="A woman sits on stage during an event and gestures with her hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502451/original/file-20221221-18-4zo4m4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley has become a leading voice for international climate finance reform.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/mia-amor-mottley-speaks-onstage-at-the-time100-summit-2022-news-photo/1401561603">Photo by Jemal Countess/Getty Images for TIME</a></span>
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<p>Countries like Mottley’s have been frustrated that the current international financial system – primarily the International Monetary Fund and the multilateral development banks, including the World Bank – haven’t adapted to the growing climate challenges.</p>
<p>Mottley’s Bridgetown Initiative <a href="https://youtu.be/y4lUZK1YJNo">proposes a new approach</a>. It calls for countries’ vulnerability to be measured by climate impact, and for funds to be made available on that basis, <a href="https://youtu.be/FNC1dJcvCww">rather than income</a>. It also urges more risk-taking by the development banks to leverage private investment in vulnerable countries, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-debt-for-climate-swaps-can-help-solve-low-income-countries-crushing-debt-and-environmental-challenges-at-the-same-time-191161">climate debt swaps</a>.</p>
<p>The Bridgetown Initiative also calls for countries <a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/france-release-5-bln-euros-sdrs-vulnerable-countries-under-g20-programme-2022-12-02/">to reflow</a> their <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/special-drawing-right">IMF Special Drawing Rights</a> – a reserve available to IMF members – into a proposed fund that vulnerable countries could then use to build resilience to climate change. A working group <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/blog/quick-rundown-where-we-stand-sdrs">established by the G-20</a> points out that the “easiest” trillion dollars to access for urgent climate response is that already in the system.</p>
<p>In early 2023, Mottley and French President Emmanuel Macron, with others, will drive a process to examine the possible <a href="https://id.ambafrance.org/Speech-by-Mr-Emmanuel-Macron-President-of-the-Republic-Sharm-el-Sheikh-Egypt">measures to improve</a> the current system before the annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF in April, and then at a June summit called by France.</p>
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<p>Watch in 2023 to see if this is the year the G-7 and the G-20 rekindle their global economic leadership roles. Their members are the largest owners of the international financial institutions, and also the largest emitters of carbon dioxide on the planet. <a href="https://www.g20.org/en/">India will lead the G-20</a> in 2023, followed by Brazil in 2024. Their leadership will be critical.</p>
<h2>Watch small nations’ leadership in 2023</h2>
<p>In 2023, expect to see small nations increasingly push for global transformation, <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/v20-g7-launch-initiative-to-address-climate-risks-in-vulnerable-countries/">led by the V-20</a> – the finance ministers of the countries most vulnerable to climate change.</p>
<p>In addition to the Bridgetown Initiative, Barbados has suggested a way to pool new funds working off the model of an oil spill damage fund at the International Maritime Organization. In the IMO fund, big oil importers pay in, and the fund pays out in the event of a spill. Barbados supports <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/windfall-profit-taxes-debt-relief-un-climate-summit-2022-11">creating a similar fund</a> to help countries when a climate event costs more than 5% of a country’s GDP.</p>
<p>This model is potentially a way to pool funds from a levy on the windfall profits of energy companies that saw their <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/oil-companies-post-massive-profits-as-consumers-feel-squeeze-from-high-gas-prices">profits soar in 2022</a> while billions of people around the world suffered from energy price inflation.</p>
<p>Finally, the <a href="https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-cbd-press-release-final-19dec2022">breakthrough agreement on biodiversity</a> reached in December 2022 provides more promise for 2023. Countries agreed to conserve 30% of the world’s biodiversity and restore 30% of the world’s degraded lands. The funding – a $30 billion fund by 2030 – remains to be found, but the plan clarifies the task ahead and nature’s place in it. And we can hope 2023 is a year when signs of peace in our war against nature break out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196925/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Look for significant progress in 2023 in two key areas, writes a veteran of international climate policy.Rachel Kyte, Dean of the Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1960102022-12-08T13:31:39Z2022-12-08T13:31:39ZWorld Cup’s ‘middle income trap’ – why breaking into soccer’s elite is so hard to do (as Morocco might soon find out)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499650/original/file-20221207-27-4aexqb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C215%2C3988%2C2443&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rising above Spain is one thing ... but can Morocco repeat the feat again and again and again? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jawad-el-yamiq-of-morocco-in-action-during-the-fifa-world-news-photo/1447296737?phrase=Morocco%20world%20cup&adppopup=true">Liu Lu/VCG via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every World Cup produces surprises.</p>
<p>In the group stage in Qatar, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/01/sports/soccer/japan-germany-world-cup-group-e.html">Japan delighted almost everyone</a> by defeating both Germany and Spain, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/football/saudi-arabia-argentina-world-cup-upsets-spt-intl/index.html">Saudi Arabia upset Argentina</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/sport/20221127-world-cup-morocco-defeat-belgium-in-shock-win">Morocco felled Belgium</a>, and <a href="https://www.foxsports.com/watch/play-61086332d001519?cmpid=google-one-box">South Korea shocked Portugal</a>.</p>
<p>Even <a href="https://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup/story/4823432/cameroon-give-this-world-cup-another-shock-by-beating-brazil">mighty Brazil</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/nov/30/tunisia-france-world-cup-group-d-match-report">and France</a> were beaten by lowly ranked teams – Cameroon and Tunisia – although those two soccer powerhouses were resting players at the time, having already qualified for the knockout round.</p>
<p>And on the back of shocks in the group stage, the same question arises at every World Cup: Are we finally seeing the changing of the guard in world soccer?</p>
<p>Then the knockout stage begins. Over the last few days, we have seen the U.S. <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/sports/us-netherlands-world-cup-match-drew-giant-audience">efficiently dispatched by the Netherlands</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/03/sports/argentina-australia-world-cup-score">Australia overwhelmed by Argentina</a>, Senegal sunk by England, Japan lose on penalty kicks to Croatia, and South Korea routed by Brazil.</p>
<p>The common theme is the teams that won those matchups represent one of the two historically dominant continental federations: <a href="https://www.uefa.com/">UEFA in Europe</a> and <a href="https://www.conmebol.com/">South America’s CONMEBOL</a>. These federations, which govern professional soccer leagues in those continents, have supplied all but one World Cup semifinalist since 1930. No team from any other confederation has ever reached the final.</p>
<p>World Cup winners themselves <a href="https://www.foxsports.com/soccer/2022-fifa-world-cup/history">are drawn from an elite</a> that rarely changes. The odds are that won’t change in Qatar. Of the eight teams left in the competition, four – Brazil, France, Argentina and England – are former winners, two – Netherlands and Croatia – are losing finalists, and one – Portugal – is a former semifinalist.</p>
<p>And then there is Morocco – more on that later.</p>
<h2>A game of two (global) halves</h2>
<p>So why are teams from Africa, Asia and the other Americas persistent underdogs?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.kines.umich.edu/directory/stefan-szymanski">I addressed this question</a> during the last World Cup in a paper with <a href="https://www.melanie-krause.de/">Melanie Krause from the University of Hamburg</a>. We <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1564018">looked at a data set of over 32,000 international soccer matches</a> played from 1950 to 2014. It revealed two interesting, though also perhaps expected, results.</p>
<p>First, nations that do well in the World Cup tend to share three characteristics. They have a large population, ensuring a large talent pool; are relatively wealthy, so they can afford to develop that talent; and they have been playing international soccer for a long time, suggesting that experience matters. To be sure, some small, poor and inexperienced countries do well on occasion, and being blessed with only one or two of these advantages also makes a difference.</p>
<p>Second, over time there is convergence. That is, weaker countries from the earlier times have improved, and the dominance of formerly strong teams has diminished.</p>
<p>This is to be expected; something similar is at work in global economies with GDP per capita. Generally, the gap between rich and poor countries <a href="https://doi.org//10.1086/718672">has declined as technologies have spread</a> around the world.</p>
<p>In similar ways, learning and imitation cause both GDP per capita and soccer results to converge. In soccer, less successful nations can close the gap by adopting the techniques and training of the elite nations.</p>
<h2>Playing catch-up</h2>
<p>Given this, then, why have the Europeans and South Americans remained dominant at the World Cup?</p>
<p>Krause and I characterize this as an example of the “<a href="https://doi.org//10.13140/RG.2.1.2968.4080">middle income trap</a>,” a term coined by international macroeconomists. The idea is that developing nations start to catch up with the developed nations, but then they run into obstacles. </p>
<p>The reasons this can happen are multifaceted, but the simple version is that these economies frequently focus on <a href="https://unctad.org/press-material/export-led-development-no-longer-viable-unctad-says-economies-will-perform-better">export-led manufacturing</a> but then struggle to transition to innovation-driven service economies.</p>
<p>This argument is <a href="https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/161890/ewp-436.pdf">not without its detractors</a>, but it certainly seems to fit soccer when viewing how up-and-coming countries of the past have fared.</p>
<p>When <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2022/11/12/profile-fifa-world-cup-1990">Cameroon advanced to the World Cup quarterfinals in 1990</a> and were unlucky to lose to England, it was seen as a turning point – evidence that an African country could compete with soccer’s elite.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A soocer player is on the ground while another in green jersey looks on." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499660/original/file-20221207-24-cnct7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499660/original/file-20221207-24-cnct7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499660/original/file-20221207-24-cnct7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499660/original/file-20221207-24-cnct7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499660/original/file-20221207-24-cnct7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499660/original/file-20221207-24-cnct7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499660/original/file-20221207-24-cnct7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">in 1990, Cameroon came close to advancing against England.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/englands-paul-gascoigne-clears-the-ball-away-from-cameroons-news-photo/676323714?phrase=cameroon%201990%20england&adppopup=true">Ross Kinnaird/PA Images via Getty Image</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nowadays, the African nations are <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2022/10/25/can-an-african-team-reach-the-world-cup-semi-finals">treated with more respect</a>. Japan’s success is not as surprising as it might have been 30 years ago given the number of <a href="https://www.besoccer.com/new/top-japanese-football-players-playing-in-europe-1046607">Japanese players that pop up in European leagues</a>, and the rise of the U.S. men’s national team – perhaps the one endeavor in which the U.S. truly is a developing nation – has raised expectations.</p>
<p>But the obstacle to further progress seems clear. Europe in particular continues to dominate the competition in which most footballers participate: club football. Players from European nations regularly play for clubs that include the best players from all over the world, ensuring that they are always up to date with the latest developments. Wealthy clubs also means the best facilities.</p>
<p>Because of their historical ties to Spain, Italy and Portugal, Argentina and Brazil are also hard-wired into this network. </p>
<h2>Moving the goal posts</h2>
<p>So what does this all mean for the final stages of the 2022 World Cup, and the chances of Morocco, this tournament’s last surviving long shot? </p>
<p>Morocco has a World Cup pedigree, being the <a href="https://www.cricketsoccer.com/2020/06/11/the-story-of-morocco-in-mexico-1970/">first African team to qualify for the tournament</a> in the post-World War II era, participating in the 1970 edition. In recent years, it has followed a course that may prove the best option for “middle income trap” countries: tapping into the elite club network of Europe. Most of Morocco’s <a href="https://us.soccerway.com/players/players_abroad/morocco/">starting lineup play for European clubs</a>. The country’s physical proximity to Europe is also an advantage.</p>
<p>Reaching the quarterfinals represents Morocco’s finest soccer achievement – and is well deserved given the team topped its group and defeated its northern neighbor, Spain, on penalties in the round of 16 knockout.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1600185711755464704"}"></div></p>
<p>A semifinal is not beyond Morocco’s reach. But progressing beyond a semifinal against either France or England is unlikely. And even if it did, there is every chance it would meet a rampant Brazil in the final – and beating that team looks implausible, at best.</p>
<p>And this encapsulates the problem for teams caught in the “middle income trap”: defeat a top-tier nation, and you only have to face another. Eventually, probability will weigh you down.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196010/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Szymanski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Shock results happen, but that doesn’t make it any easier for lower-ranked nations to rise up the ranks, a soccer economist explains.Stefan Szymanski, Professor of Sport Management, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1951862022-11-27T13:47:35Z2022-11-27T13:47:35ZCOP27 ‘loss and damage’ fund: A historic decision amid discouraging results<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497077/original/file-20221123-16-7ifzr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C0%2C8588%2C4340&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The sun setting in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, host of COP27. The results of the international meeting were disappointing overall.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27">COP27</a> climate conference was billed as <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/vision#goals">the moment to implement</a> the climate change commitments states made at <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">COP21</a>, held in Paris in December 2015.</p>
<p>COP27 took place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, in an uncertain <a href="https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/11/20/russias-war-on-ukraine-at-cop27-and-energy-security/">geopolitical, energy and economic</a> context. Marked by the 30th anniversary of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, its outcomes were highly anticipated.</p>
<p>The results are encouraging in some respects, and very discouraging in others.</p>
<p>As researchers at the University of Ottawa, UQAM and University of Oxford, we represent the <a href="https://www2.uottawa.ca/faculty-law/common-law/centre-environmental-law-global-sustainability">Centre for Environmental Law and Global Sustainability</a>. We followed COP27 from a distance and in person. Here are the key highlights we took away from it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496572/original/file-20221121-14-idnbff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Youth activists call on world leaders to limit warming to 1.5 C at COP27 on Nov. 19 in Sharm El-Sheikh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Funding for losses and damages: A historic decision, but…</h2>
<p>The conference opened with the unexpected placement of <a href="https://www.iddri.org/en/publications-and-events/blog-post/loss-and-damage-adverse-effects-climate-change-human-and-natural">loss and damage finance</a> on the agenda and the ambitious goal of reaching a decision on this controversial topic. The objective of this aspect of climate finance is to compensate states for the damage suffered due to the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>Driven in large part by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/cop27-agrees-to-historic-loss-and-damage-fund-to-compensate-developing-countries-for-climate-impacts">developing countries</a>, the agreement reached to create a fund and a transitional committee to operationalize the issue of loss and damage is a landmark decision, given the <a href="https://time.com/6188699/loss-damages-blocked-from-cop27-agenda/">reluctance of some developed states</a> in determining the form and consequences of this fund.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496573/original/file-20221121-19-n8gund.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators call for funding for loss and damage due to climate change at COP27 on Nov. 18.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The mechanism is expected to be <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/624434">operational within two years</a>, but there are concerns that its funding is heavily dependent on developed countries <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries">whose financial commitments to the Adaptation Fund are still lacking</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/sustainable-future/developing-china-wont-pay-into-climate-loss-fund">China, designated as a developing country</a> (but which, in fact, no longer is), has already revealed that it will not contribute to the fund.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/%E2%80%98loss-and-damage%E2%80%99-deal-struck">Petrostates are also resisting the idea of making any financial contribution</a>. In his closing speech to the plenary session, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stressed <a href="https://media.un.org/en/asset/k12/k12p31t118">the political importance of the fund, but regretted its inadequacy</a>. This mechanism in fact reveals a paradox at the heart of the climate negotiations: the financing of measures to remedy the impacts of climate change, on the one hand, and the continued refusal to eliminate fossil fuels on the other.</p>
<h2>The 1.5 degree target slips further away</h2>
<p>The implementation called for by COP27 was also to be expressed through concrete actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to achieve the objectives of the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/paris-agreement.html">Paris Agreement</a>. The aim is to keep the rise in the average temperature of the planet well below 2°C and to continue efforts to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>In this respect, COP27 was blocked by the status quo, despite the urgency. Parties including Saudi Arabia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/18/eu-reversal-stance-loss-damage-china-cop27">opposed the addition of the 1.5 degree limit in the final text</a>, even after having committed to setting “tougher climate targets” at COP26. Other countries, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/uk-eu-canada-meet-cop27-presidency-say-talks-cant-fail-2022-11-17/">including the UK, Canada and the EU</a> fought to preserve the gains of the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/the-glasgow-climate-pact/">Glasgow Pact</a>. The final text of COP27 merely reaffirms the objectives of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Achieving this goal is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Only 34 countries have <a href="https://unfccc.int/NDCREG">submitted or updated their national contributions to reducing emissions</a> since COP26. However, the current contributions to which states have committed will not (assuming they are met) keep the rise in global temperature <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">below 2 degrees</a>. The <a href="https://news.sky.com/video/cop27-1-5c-global-warming-pledge-is-on-life-support-says-alok-sharma-12751619#:%7E:text=COP26%20President%20Alok%20Sharma%20said,nations%20don't%20act%20now.">1.5°C target is now “on life support.”</a></p>
<h2>Fossil fuel phase-down still missing</h2>
<p>Many countries vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including Tuvalu, have reiterated the urgency of phasing out fossil fuels and have called for the implementation of a <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org/">fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty</a>.</p>
<p>While some parties, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/india-seeks-cop27-deal-phase-down-all-fossil-fuels-sources-2022-11-12/">led by India</a>, lobbied for the phase-down of fossil fuels to be included in the final text, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27/auv">Sharm El-Sheikh Plan of Implementation</a> reiterates the wording proposed in the Glasgow Pact, which refers only to coal. The strong presence of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/10/big-rise-in-number-of-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-at-cop27-climate-summit">oil and gas sector, whose participation increased by 25% compared to COP26</a>, certainly played a role.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496577/original/file-20221121-13-ysqyaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian participant Lauren Latour demonstrates against fossil fuels at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh on Nov. 18.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Canada <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/canada-wont-back-call-at-cop27-to-phase-down-oil-and-gas-production">supported the retention of this wording</a> before <a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/cop27-overtime-canada-face-criticism-oil-and-gas">qualifying its position</a> in the face of criticism. No doubt this issue will be discussed again at the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/16/uae-cop28-host-lobby-climate-reputation-cop27">next COP28 in the United Arab Emirates</a>.</p>
<h2>Canada at the COP</h2>
<p>Unlike at COP26, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/11/03/justin-trudeau-shows-lack-of-leadership-by-skipping-climate-change-conference-critics-charge.html">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau</a> and his Québec counterpart, François Legault, did not attend. However, Canada had a strong presence at COP27 with a <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/622327">377-member delegation</a> led by Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496574/original/file-20221121-14-h3ff8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Canada had a 377-member delegation at COP27, led by Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, shown here with counterparts from Norway and New Zealand, on Nov. 19 in Sharm El-Sheikh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The delegation included a wide range of stakeholders beyond the federal public sector. These included representatives of Indigenous organizations, provincial and municipal representatives, NGO representatives, but also <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63571610">eight lobbyists from the fossil fuel sector</a>.</p>
<p>Canada also hosted a pavilion for the first time in the negotiating area. Activities were organized around three guiding pillars: <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/canada-international-action/un-climate-change-conference/cop27-summit/canada-pavilion.html">ambition, implementation and partnership</a>. These activities were nevertheless clouded by <a href="https://www.globeseries.com/cop27-event-program-schedule/">the organization of events featuring the fossil fuel sector</a>, in turn spurring demonstrations by civil society actors (which did not hinder the holding of events).</p>
<h2>A chaotic COP for participants</h2>
<p>A multitude of logistical problems limited access to the negotiations, including pavilions inaccessible to people with reduced mobility, excessive and fluctuating costs of accommodation, <a href="https://www.nationalworld.com/news/environment/cop27-delegates-joe-biden-leaders-egypt-climate-change-summit-3908600">last-minute cancellations of hotel reservations and price increases</a> and various obstacles to safe movement for people with disabilities.</p>
<p>There were also digital issues. Participants faced problems accessing the virtual platform. On site, one of the biggest challenges was the installation of the official application developed by the Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, which required excessive authorizations to access. Indeed, many delegations questioned whether the Egyptian government was actually using the application <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/12/expert-warn-egypts-cop27-app-could-be-used-for-surveilliance">for surveillance purposes</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496578/original/file-20221121-18-x4h1sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Simon Stiell, UN executive secretary on climate change, at the closing plenary session of COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh on Nov. 20. COP28 will take place next year in Dubai.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Eyes on Dubai</h2>
<p>COP27 marks 30 years of negotiations, with the prospect of a catastrophic trajectory of <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">temperatures rising between 2.5 and 3 degrees</a>. The results of COP27 are extremely disappointing in this regard given the urgency of the situation. They reflect colossal political differences that highlight the <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/global-climate-change-governance-search-effectiveness-and-universality">major challenges of environmental governance at the international level</a>.</p>
<p>They also demonstrate the difficulty of our societies going without <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/essay/why-are-fossil-fuels-so-hard-to-quit/">fossil fuels</a>. The hopes of climate defenders are now turning, once again, to the next COP. The 28th edition will take place in the United Arab Emirates, a region whose economy is largely based on the exploitation of fossil fuels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195186/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Burelli is the co-director of the Centre for Environmental Law and Global Sustainability at the University of Ottawa.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alycia Leonard is a member of the Energy and Power Group — University of Oxford. Her research is part of the Climate Compatible Growth program, which is funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elie Klee has received funding from the University of Ottawa as Coordinator of the Centre for Environmental Law and Global Sustainability.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexandre Lillo, Erin Dobbelsteyn, Justine Bouquier et Lauren Touchant ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>The historic agreement on a loss and damage fund was overshadowed by lack of progress on phasing out fossil fuels.Thomas Burelli, Professeur en droit, Section de droit civil, Université d’Ottawa (Canada), membre du Conseil scientifique de la Fondation France Libertés, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaAlexandre Lillo, Professeur au Département des sciences juridiques, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Alycia Leonard, Postdoctoral research assistant, University of OxfordElie Klee, Doctorant en droit international public, coordinateur du Centre du droit de l'environnement et de la durabilité mondiale de l'Université d'Ottawa, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaErin Dobbelsteyn, PhD Student in Environmental Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaJustine Bouquier, PhD Candidate, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLauren Touchant, Professor at Vancouver Island University & Postdoctoral fellow, Centre d’études en gouvernance et du Centre de droit de l’environnement et de la durabilité mondiale, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1949922022-11-21T13:25:56Z2022-11-21T13:25:56ZCOP27’s ‘loss and damage’ fund for developing countries could be a breakthrough – or another empty climate promise<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496398/original/file-20221121-16-iwtkve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5731%2C3826&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry closes COP27 in the early hours of Nov. 19, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/november-2022-egypt-scharm-el-scheich-samih-zhukri-foreign-news-photo/1244917386">Christophe Gateau/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Developing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/deal-on-loss-and-damage-fund-at-cop27-marks-climbdown-by-rich-countries?ref=upstract.com">nations were justifiably jubilant</a> at the close of COP27 as negotiators from wealthy countries around the world agreed for the first time to establish a dedicated “<a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/11/20/what-was-decided-at-cop27-climate-talks-in-sharm-el-sheikh/">loss and damage” fund</a> for vulnerable countries harmed by climate change. </p>
<p>It was an important and <a href="https://news.trust.org/item/20210720193604-ubg6h">hard fought</a> acknowledgment of the damage – and of who bears at least some responsibility for the cost.</p>
<p>But the fund might not materialize in the way that developing countries hope.</p>
<p>I study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=l6nq2hkAAAAJ&hl=en">global environmental policy</a> and have been following climate negotiations from their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/30/25-years-cop-failures-paris-climate-change-pakistan-binding-agreements">inception at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit</a>. Here’s what’s in the agreement reached at COP27, the United Nations climate talks in Egypt in November 2022, and why it holds much promise but very few commitments.</p>
<h2>3 key questions</h2>
<p>All decisions at these U.N. climate conferences – always – are promissory notes. And the legacy of climate negotiations <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/30/25-years-cop-failures-paris-climate-change-pakistan-binding-agreements">is one of promises not kept</a>. </p>
<p>This promise, welcome as it is, is particularly vague and unconvincing, even by U.N. standards.</p>
<p>Essentially, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27/auv">agreement</a> only begins the process of establishing a fund. The implementable decision is to set up a “transitional committee,” which is tasked with making recommendations for the world to consider at the 2023 climate conference, COP28, in Dubai.</p>
<p>Importantly for wealthy countries, the text avoids terms like “liability” and “compensation.” Those <a href="https://doi.org/10.1163/18786561-00601008">had been</a> <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/11/02/see-you-in-court-how-climate-lawsuits-could-sharpen-cop27-loss-and-damage-talks/">red lines</a> for the United States. The most important <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21550085.2017.1342963">operational questions</a> were also left to 2023. Three, in particular, are likely to hound the next COP.</p>
<p>1) Who will pay into this new fund? </p>
<p>Developed countries have made it very clear that the fund will be voluntary and should not be restricted only to developed country contributions. Given that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">much-trumpeted US$100 billion</a> a year that wealthy nations promised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/07/paris-climate-change-deal-summit-guide">in 2015</a> to provide for developing nations has not yet materialized, believing that rich countries will be pouring their heart into this new venture seems to be yet another triumph of hope over experience. </p>
<p>2) The fund will be new, but will it be additional?</p>
<p>It is not at all clear if money in the fund will be “new” money or simply aid already committed for other issues and shifted to the fund. In fact, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27/auv">COP27 language</a> could easily be read as favoring arrangements that “complement and include” existing sources rather than new and additional financing.</p>
<p>3) Who would receive support from the fund?</p>
<p>As climate disasters increase all over the world, we could tragically get into disasters competing with disasters – is my drought more urgent than your flood? – unless explicit principles of climate justice and the polluter pays principle are clearly established.</p>
<h2>Why now?</h2>
<p>Acknowledgment that countries whose excessive emissions have been causing climate change have a responsibility to pay for damages imposed on poorer nations has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1469-3062(03)00057-3">a perennial demand of developing countries in climate negotiations</a>. In fact, a paragraph on “loss and damage” was also included <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">in the 2015 Paris Agreement</a> signed at COP21. </p>
<p>What <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cop27_auv_2_cover%20decision.pdf">COP27</a> at Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, has done is to ensure that the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/welcome-to-the-e2-80-98age-of-adaptation-e2-80-99/ar-AA13OsUE">idea of loss and damage</a> will be a central feature of all future climate negotiations. That is big.</p>
<p>Seasoned observers left Sharm el-Sheikh <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/deal-on-loss-and-damage-fund-at-cop27-marks-climbdown-by-rich-countries">wondering how</a> developing countries were able to push the loss and damage agenda so successfully at COP27 when it has been so firmly resisted by large emitter countries like the United States for so long.</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.scidev.net/global/opinions/q-a-adapt-to-climate-by-packaging-local-results-into-policy/">logic of climate justice</a> has always been impeccable: The countries that have contributed most to creating the problem are a near mirror opposite of those who face the most imminent risk of climatic loss and damage. So, what changed?</p>
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<p>At least three things made COP27 the perfect time for this issue to ripen.</p>
<p>First, an <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/welcome-to-the-e2-80-98age-of-adaptation-e2-80-99/ar-AA13OsUE">unrelenting series of climate disasters</a> have erased all doubts that we are now firmly in what I have been calling the “<a href="https://blog.iiasa.ac.at/2017/07/26/interview-living-in-the-age-of-adaptation/">age of adaptation</a>.” Climate impacts are no longer just a threat for tomorrow; they are a reality to be dealt with today.</p>
<p>Second, the devastating floods this summer that inundated a third of my home country of Pakistan provided the world with an immediate and extremely visual sense of what climate impacts can look like, particularly for the most vulnerable people. They affected 33 million people are expected to cost <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/28/pakistan-flood-damages-and-economic-losses-over-usd-30-billion-and-reconstruction-needs-over-usd-16-billion-new-assessme">over $16 billion</a>. </p>
<p>The floods, in addition to a spate of other recent climate calamities, provided developing countries – which happened to be represented at COP27 by an energized Pakistan as the chair of the “G-77 plus China,” a coalition of more than 170 developing countries – with the motivation and the authority <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/loss-and-damage-pakistan-flooding-climate-justice-cop27">to push a loss and damage agenda</a> more vigorously than ever before.</p>
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<img alt="Young people from many countries shout and wave signs reading 'pay up for loss and damage' at a small outdoor protest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496400/original/file-20221121-23-c680ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Activists from developing nations pressed for a loss and damage fund during the COP27 U.N. climate conference, the first held in Africa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/COP27ClimateSummit/2ad01e2724ca41cc9826a5acea577984/photo">AP Photo/Peter Dejong</a></span>
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<p>Finally, it is possible that COP-fatigue also played a role. Industrialized countries – particularly the U.S. and members of the European Union, which have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/19/climate/un-climate-damage-cop27.html">traditionally blocked discussions</a> of loss and damage – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/20/deal-on-loss-and-damage-fund-at-cop27-marks-climbdown-by-rich-countries?ref=upstract.com">remain distracted</a> by Russia’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63548466">war in Ukraine</a> and the economic effects of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-spoke-to-99-big-thinkers-about-what-our-world-after-coronavirus-might-look-like-this-is-what-i-learned-146986">COVID-19 pandemic</a> and seemed to show less immediate resistance than in the past.</p>
<p>Importantly, for now, developing countries got what they wanted: a fund for loss and damage. And developed countries were able to avoid what they have always been unwilling to give: any concrete funding commitments or any acknowledgment of responsibility for reparations. </p>
<p>Both can go home and declare victory. But not for long.</p>
<h2>Is it just a ‘placebo fund’?</h2>
<p>Real as the jubilation is for developing countries, it is also tempered. And rightly so. </p>
<p>For developing countries, there is a real danger that this turns out to be another “<a href="https://oxfordclimatepolicy.org/sites/default/files/EV43_0.pdf">placebo fund</a>,” to use Oxford University researcher Benito Müller’s term – an agreed-to funding arrangement without any agreed-to funding commitments.</p>
<p>In 2001, for example, developing countries had been delighted when three funds were established: <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/bodies/funds-and-financial-entities/least-developed-countries-ldc-fund">a climate fund to support least developed countries</a>, a <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/climate-finance/resources/reports-of-the-special-climate-change-fund">Special Climate Change Fund</a>, and an <a href="https://unfccc.int/Adaptation-Fund">Adaptation Fund</a>. None ever reached the promised scale.</p>
<p>Writing prior to COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, Müller boldly declared that developing countries would <a href="https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/3173-will-treasuries-kill-climate-deal/">never again “settle for more ‘placebo funds</a>’.” I very much hopes he has not been proven wrong at Sharm el-Sheikh.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adil Najam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s a landmark agreement, acknowledging for the first time that wealthy countries bear some responsibility to help. But it leaves many unanswered questions.Adil Najam, Professor of International Relations, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930772022-11-10T13:41:45Z2022-11-10T13:41:45Z8 billion people: Four ways climate change and population growth combine to threaten public health, with global consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494155/original/file-20221108-12-bg01z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=522%2C226%2C3071%2C2166&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Infectious diseases like COVID-19 top the list of health concerns.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-elderly-man-a-resident-of-the-sprawling-township-of-news-photo/1211082728">Marco Longari/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ocho-mil-millones-de-personas-asi-amenazan-a-la-salud-publica-el-cambio-climatico-y-la-superpoblacion-194421">Leer in español</a></em></p>
<p>There are questions that worry me profoundly as a population- and environmental-health scientist. </p>
<p>Will we have enough food for a growing global population? How will we take care of more people in the next pandemic? What will heat do to millions with hypertension? Will countries wage water wars because of increasing droughts? </p>
<p>These risks all have three things in common: health, climate change and a growing population that the United Nations determined <a href="https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022">passed 8 billion</a> people in November 2022 – double the population of just 48 years ago.</p>
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<p>In my <a href="https://www.health.pitt.edu/people/ant-2">40-year career</a>, first working in the Amazon rainforest and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and then in academia, I have encountered many public health threats, but none so intransigent and pervasive as climate change. </p>
<p>Of the multitude of climate-related adverse health effects, the following four represent the greatest public health concerns for a growing population.</p>
<h2>Infectious diseases</h2>
<p>Researchers have found that <a href="https://theconversation.com/58-of-human-infectious-diseases-can-be-worsened-by-climate-change-we-scoured-77-000-studies-to-map-the-pathways-188256">over half of all human infectious diseases</a> can be worsened by climate change.</p>
<p>Flooding, for example, can affect water quality and the habitats where dangerous bacteria and vectors like mosquitoes can breed and transmit infectious diseases to people.</p>
<p>Dengue, a painful mosquito-borne viral disease that sickens <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/about/index.html">about 100 million</a> people a year, becomes more common in warm, wet environments. Its R0, or basic reproduction number – a gauge of how quickly it spreads – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9">increased by about 12%</a> from the 1950s to the average in 2012-2021, according to the 2022 Lancet Countdown report. Malaria’s season expanded by 31% in highland areas of Latin America and nearly 14% in Africa’s highlands as temperatures rose over the same period.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Rows of beds, some covered with mosquito nets, fill a warehouse-like space. Doctors visit with some of the patients." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Patients rest in a makeshift dengue ward at a hospital during a severe outbreak in Pakistan in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/patients-take-rest-on-beds-arranged-inside-a-makeshift-news-photo/1235932771">Arif Ali/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Flooding can also spread waterborne organisms that cause <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-020-04961-4">hepatitis</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39503.700903.DB">diarrheal diseases</a>, such as cholera, particularly when large numbers of people are displaced by disasters and living in areas with poor water quality for drinking or washing. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.7a2cee9e980f91ad7697b570bcc4b004">Droughts</a>, too, can degrade drinking water quality. As a result, more rodent populations enter into human communities in search of food, increasing the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11010015">potential to spread hantavirus</a>.</p>
<h2>Extreme heat</h2>
<p>Another serious health risk is rising temperatures. </p>
<p>Excessive heat can <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-heat-and-health">exacerbate existing health problems</a>, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/all.14177">cardiovascular</a> and respiratory diseases. And when heat stress becomes <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/heatstress/heatrelillness.html">heat stroke</a>, it can <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/heat-stroke/symptoms-causes/syc-20353581">damage the heart, brain and kidneys</a> and become lethal.</p>
<p>Today, about 30% of the global population is exposed to potentially deadly heat stress each year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that percentage will rise <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/about/frequently-asked-questions/keyfaq3/">to at least 48% and as high as 76%</a> by the end of this century.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where climate change affects human health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition to lives lost, heat exposure was projected to have resulted in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/infographics-do/climate-countdown-2022">470 billion potential work hours lost</a> globally in 2021, with associated income losses totaling up to US$669 billion. As populations grow and heat rises, more people will be relying on air conditioning powered by fossil fuels, which <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/air-conditioning-use-emerges-as-one-of-the-key-drivers-of-global-electricity-demand-growth">further contributes to climate change</a>.</p>
<h2>Food and water security</h2>
<p>Heat also affects food and water security for a growing population.</p>
<p>The Lancet review found that high temperatures in 2021 <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01540-9/fulltext">shortened the growing season</a> by about 9.3 days on average for corn, or maize, and six days for wheat compared with the 1981-2020 average. Warming oceans, meanwhile, can kill shellfish and shift <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14512">fisheries that coastal communities rely on</a>. Heat waves in 2020 alone resulted in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01540-9/fulltext">98 million more</a> people facing food insecurity compared with the 1981-2010 average.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman standing in a field examines a stalk of sorghum" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A farmer in Zimbabwe switched to sorghum, a grain crop that can thrive in dry conditions, as drought withered other crops in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/angeline-kadiki-an-elderly-who-is-a-sorghum-farmer-inspects-news-photo/1130994283">Jekesai Njikizana/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rising temperatures also affect fresh water supplies through evaporation and by shrinking <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/andes-meltdown-new-insights-into-rapidly-retreating-glaciers">mountain glaciers</a> and <a href="https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/project/climate-change-sierra-nevada/">snowpack</a> that historically have kept water flowing through the summer months.</p>
<p>Water scarcity and drought have the potential to displace almost <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2022/goal-13/">700 million people by 2030</a>, according to U.N. estimates. Combined with population growth and growing energy needs, they can also fuel geopolitical conflicts as countries face food shortages and compete for water.</p>
<h2>Poor air quality</h2>
<p>Air pollution can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-air-pollution-can-be-deadly-with-the-health-risk-together-worse-than-either-alone-187422">exacerbated by the drivers of climate change</a>. Hot weather and the same fossil fuel gases warming the planet <a href="https://www.lung.org/clean-air/climate-change/climate-change-air-pollution">contribute to ground-level ozone</a>, a key component of smog. That can exacerbate allergies, asthma and other respiratory problems, as well as cardiovascular disease. </p>
<p>Wildfires fueled by hot, dry landscapes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abi9386">add to the air pollution health risk</a>. Wildfire smoke is laden with tiny particles that can travel deep into the lungs, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/wildfire-smoke-course/why-wildfire-smoke-health-concern">causing heart and respiratory problems</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three school girls with backpacks walk through smog along a road while covering their mouths with handkerchiefs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smog in New Delhi, India, is an ongoing problem. It got so bad in 2017 that the city temporarily closed its primary schools.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/indian-schoolchildren-cover-their-faces-as-they-walk-to-news-photo/871511920">Sajjad Hussain/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can we do about it?</h2>
<p>Many groups and medical experts are working to counter this cascade of negative climate consequences on human health.</p>
<p>The U.S. National Academy of Medicine has embarked on an ambitious <a href="https://nam.edu/programs/climate-change-and-human-health/">grand challenge in climate change, human health, and equity</a> to ramp up research. At many academic institutions, including the University of Pittsburgh’s School of Public Health, where I am dean, climate and health are being embedded in research, teaching and service.</p>
<p>Addressing the health burden on low- and middle-income countries is pivotal. Often, the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK525226/">most vulnerable</a> people in these countries <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal13">face the greatest harms from climate change</a> without having the resources to protect their health and environment. Population growth can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10384">deepen these iniquities</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.paho.org/en/news/19-8-2022-eu-and-paho-supporting-nine-caribbean-countries-integration-health-national">Adaptation assessments</a> can help high-risk countries prepare for the effects of climate change. Development groups are also leading projects to <a href="https://www.cgiar.org/">expand the cultivation of crops</a> that can thrive in dry conditions. The <a href="https://www.paho.org/en">Pan American Health Organization</a>, which focuses on the Caribbean, is an example of how countries are working to reduce communicable diseases and advance regional capacity to counter the impact of climate change.</p>
<p>Ultimately, reducing the health risks will require <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">reducing the greenhouse gas emissions</a> that are driving climate change. </p>
<p>Countries worldwide <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-convention/history-of-the-convention#Essential-background">committed in 1992</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Thirty years later, global emissions are <a href="https://www.unep.org/events/publication-launch/emissions-gap-report-2022">only beginning to flatten</a>, and communities around the world are increasingly suffering extreme heat waves and devastating floods and droughts.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/cop-27">U.N. climate change talks</a>, which in my view aren’t focusing enough on health, can help bring attention to key climate impacts that harm health. As U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres noted: While we celebrate our advances, “at the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.”</p>
<p><em>Samantha Totoni, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maureen Lichtveld does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The human population has doubled in 48 years, and worsening climate change has left the world facing serious health risks, from infectious diseases to hunger and heat stress.Maureen Lichtveld, Dean of the School of Public Health, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1920702022-11-02T12:28:58Z2022-11-02T12:28:58ZLoss and damage: Who is responsible when climate change harms the world’s poorest countries?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492622/original/file-20221031-13-eywc63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C17%2C3976%2C2646&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme flooding in Pakistan in 2022 affected 33 million people.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-use-a-raft-to-move-along-a-waterlogged-street-in-news-photo/1242590163"> Akram Shahid/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You may be hearing the phrase “loss and damage” in the coming weeks as government leaders meet in Egypt for the 2022 U.N. Climate Change Conference.</p>
<p>It refers to the costs, both economic and physical, that developing countries are facing from climate change impacts. Many of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries have done little to cause climate change, yet they are experiencing extreme heat waves, floods and other climate-related disasters. They want wealthier nations – <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions">historically the biggest sources</a> of greenhouse gas emissions – to pay for the harm. </p>
<p>A powerful example is Pakistan, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/2022s-supercharged-summer-of-climate-extremes-how-global-warming-and-la-nina-fueled-disasters-on-top-of-disasters-190546">extreme rainfall</a> on the heels of a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02813-6">glacier-melting heat wave</a> flooded nearly one-third of the country in the summer of 2022.</p>
<p>The flooding turned Pakistan’s farm fields into miles-wide lakes that stranded communities for weeks. <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-monsoon-floods-2022-islamic-relief-pakistan-12-october-2022">More than 1,700 people died</a>, millions lost their homes and livelihoods, and more than 4 million acres of crops and orchards, as well as livestock, drowned or were damaged. This was followed by a <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON413">surge in malaria</a> cases as mosquitoes bred in the stagnant water.</p>
<p>Pakistan contributes only about 1% of the global greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change. But greenhouse gases don’t stay within national borders – emissions anywhere affect the global climate. A warming climate intensifies rainfall, and studies suggest climate change may have <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-likely-increased-extreme-monsoon-rainfall-flooding-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-pakistan/">increased Pakistan’s rainfall intensity by as much as 50%</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man sits on a bench outside the door too his home, surrounded by floodwater up to his shins." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many of the millions of people affected by the 2022 flooding in Pakistan already lived in poverty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/abdul-rahim-is-photographed-outside-his-flooded-house-on-news-photo/587483798">Gideon Mendel For Action Aid/ In Pictures/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The question of payments for loss and damage has been a <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/loss-and-damage/">long-standing point of negotiation</a> at United Nations climate conferences, held nearly every year <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-convention/history-of-the-convention#Climate-Change-in-context">since 1995</a>, but there has been little progress toward including a financial mechanism for loss and damage in international climate agreements.</p>
<p>Many <a href="https://unclimatesummit.org/time-to-respond/">developing countries</a> are looking to this year’s conference, COP27, as a crucial moment for making progress on <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop27-why-is-addressing-loss-and-damage-crucial-for-climate-justice/">establishing that formal mechanism</a>.</p>
<h2>Africa’s climate conference</h2>
<p>With Egypt hosting this year’s U.N. climate conference, it’s not surprising that loss and damage will take center stage.</p>
<p>Countries in Africa have some of the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2">lowest national greenhouse gas emissions</a>, and yet the continent is home to many of the world’s most <a href="https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/">climate-vulnerable countries</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="vcea5" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vcea5/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>To deal with climate change, these countries – many of them <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gross-domestic-product">among the world’s poorest</a> – will have to invest in adaptation measures, such as seawalls, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climate-smart-agriculture">climate-smart agriculture</a> and infrastructure that’s more resilient to high heat and extreme storms. The UN Environment Program’s Adaptation Gap Report, released Nov. 3, 2022, found that developing countries need <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2022">five to 10 times more</a> international adaptation finance than wealthier countries are providing.</p>
<p>When climate disasters strike, countries also need more financial help to cover relief efforts, infrastructure repairs and recovery. This is loss and damage.</p>
<p>Egypt is emphasizing the need for wealthy countries to <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/">make more progress on providing financial support for both</a> adaptation and loss and damage. </p>
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<h2>Climate injustice and loss and damage</h2>
<p>The conversation on loss and damage is inherently about equity. It evokes the question: Why should countries that have done little to cause global warming be responsible for the damage resulting from the emissions of wealthy countries?</p>
<p>That also makes it contentious. Negotiators know that the idea of payments for loss and damage has the potential to lead to further discussions about financial compensation for historical injustices, such as slavery in the United States or colonial exploitation by European powers.</p>
<p>At COP26, held in 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland, negotiators made progress on some key issues, such as <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/cop26-climate-pledges-tracking-progress">stronger emissions targets and pledges to double adaptation finance</a> for developing countries. But COP26 was seen as a disappointment by advocates trying to establish a financial mechanism for wealthier nations to provide finance for loss and damage in developing countries.</p>
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<h2>What a formal mechanism might look like</h2>
<p>The lack of resolution at COP26, combined with Egypt’s commitment to focus on financing for adaptation and loss and damage, means the issue will be on the table this year.</p>
<p>The nonprofit <a href="https://www.c2es.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Loss-and-Damage-Issues-and-Options-for-cop27.pdf">Center for Climate and Energy Solutions</a> expects discussions to focus on institutional arrangements for the <a href="https://www.iied.org/interview-how-can-santiago-network-for-loss-damage-meet-technical-needs-communities-vulnerable">Santiago Network for Loss and Damage</a>, which focuses on providing technical assistance to help developing countries minimize loss and damage; and on fine-tuning the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Glasgow_Dialogue.pdf">Glasgow Dialogue</a>, a formal process developed in 2021 to bring countries together to discuss funding for loss and damage.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.v-20.org/">V20 group</a> of finance ministers, representing 58 countries highly vulnerable to climate change, and <a href="https://www.g7germany.de/g7-en/g7-summit/g7-members">the G-7</a> group of wealthy nations also <a href="https://www.v-20.org/our-voice/news/press-releases/v20-and-g7-agree-on-financial-protection-cooperation-to-formally-launch-global-shield-against-climate-risks-at-cop27">reached an agreement</a> in October 2022 on a financial mechanism called the <a href="https://www.bmz.de/en/issues/climate-change-and-development/global-shield-against-climate-risks">Global Shield Against Climate Risks</a>. The Global Shield is focused on providing risk insurance and rapid financial assistance to countries after disasters, but it’s unclear how it will fit into the international discussions. Some groups <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/07/18/germany-promotes-insurance-based-global-shield-for-climate-victims/">have raised concerns</a> that relying on insurance systems can overlook the poorest people and distract from the larger discussion of establishing a dedicated fund for loss and damage. </p>
<p>Two elements of developed countries’ reluctance to formalize a loss and damage mechanism involve how to determine which countries or communities are eligible for compensation and what the <a href="https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/211025c-davis-shawoo-loss-and-damage-finance-pr-2110l.pdf">limitations</a> of such a mechanism would be.</p>
<p>What would a threshold for loss and damage eligibility look like? Limiting countries or communities from receiving compensation for loss and damage based on their current emissions or gross domestic product could become a problematic and complicated process. Most experts recommend <a href="https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/211025c-davis-shawoo-loss-and-damage-finance-pr-2110l.pdf">determining eligibility based on climate vulnerability</a>, but this can also prove difficult.</p>
<h2>How will world leaders respond?</h2>
<p>Over a decade ago, developed countries committed to provide <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">US$100 billion per year</a> to fund adaptation and mitigation in developing countries. But they have been <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2022">slow to meet</a> that commitment, and it does not cover the damages from the climate impacts the world is already seeing today. </p>
<p>Establishing a loss and damage mechanism is considered one avenue to provide recourse for global climate injustice. All eyes will be on Egypt Nov. 6-18, 2022, to see how world leaders respond.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated Nov. 3, 2022, with the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report findings.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192070/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bethany Tietjen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>That’s the big question at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference, known as COP27, and it’s controversial.Bethany Tietjen, Research fellow in climate policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1911612022-10-31T12:34:06Z2022-10-31T12:34:06ZHow debt-for-climate swaps can help solve low-income countries’ crushing debt and environmental challenges at the same time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491185/original/file-20221023-63312-fqxhat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4064%2C2689&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Debt swaps in some countries have involved commitments to protect the ocean.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/funafuti-atoll-is-at-the-front-line-against-global-warming-news-photo/543723360">Ashley Cooper/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Barbados Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley spoke passionately to the United Nations General Assembly in September <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1127611">about the mounting debt</a> many developing countries are shouldering and its increasing impact on their ability to thrive.</p>
<p>The average debt for low- and middle-income countries, excluding China, reached <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/36289/9781464818004.pdf">42% of their gross national income</a> in 2020, up from 26% in 2011. For countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, the annual payments just to service that debt <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/36289/9781464818004.pdf">averaged 30% of their total exports</a>.</p>
<p>At the same time, these countries are facing a “<a href="https://pmo.gov.bb/2022/09/22/unga77-september-22/">triple crisis</a> of climate change, of pandemic and indeed now the conflict that is leading to the inflationary pressures that lead regrettably to people <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/haiti-reaches-a-breaking-point-as-the-economy-tanks-and-violence-soars">taking circumstances into their own hands</a>,” Mottley said.</p>
<p>Rising borrowing costs coupled with high inflation and slow economic growth have left developing countries like hers in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/02/high-interest-rates-paid-by-poorer-nations-spark-fears-of-global-debt-crisis">a difficult position</a> when it comes to climate change. High debt payments mean countries have fewer resources for mitigating and <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2022">adapting to climate change</a>. Yet climate change is increasing their vulnerability, and that can <a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/climate-change-and-sovereign-risk">raise their sovereign risk</a>, increasing the cost of borrowing. <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/08/11/Debt-for-Climate-Swaps-Analysis-Design-and-Implementation-522184">Declining productive capacity and tax base</a> can lead to higher debt risks. It’s a vicious cycle. </p>
<p>As one solution, countries and international organizations are talking about “debt-for-climate swaps” to help tackle both problems at the same time. U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/dsg/statement/2022-09-05/deputy-secretary-generals-remarks-the-africa-adaptation-finance-forum-gca-high-level-dialogue-for-cop27-prepared-for-delivery">mentioned debt-for-climate swaps</a> ahead of the November 2022 <a href="https://cop27.eg/">U.N. Climate Change Conference</a> as one option for refinancing countries’ “crippling” debt.</p>
<h2>How debt swaps work</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/08/11/Debt-for-Climate-Swaps-Analysis-Design-and-Implementation-522184">Debt-for-climate swaps</a> allow countries to reduce their debt obligations in exchange for a commitment to finance domestic climate projects with the freed-up financial resources. </p>
<p>They have been <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/outreach/39352290.pdf">used since the late 1980s</a> to preserve the environment and address the liquidity crisis in developing countries, including Bolivia, Costa Rica and Belize. These are commonly known as “debt-for-nature swaps.”</p>
<p>Belize, for example, was able to lower its debt in exchange for committing to designate 30% of its marine areas as protected areas and to spend $US4 million a year for the next two decades on marine conservation <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/05/03/CF-Belize-swapping-debt-for-nature">under a complex debt-for-nature swap</a>. </p>
<p>The swap, organized in 2021 by <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/who-we-are/how-we-work/finance-investing/">The Nature Conservancy</a>, involves the U.S.-based environmental group lending funds at a low-interest rate to Belize to buy back $553 million in commercial debt at a deep discount of 45%. The Nature Conservancy raised funds from the investment bank Credit Swisse via the issuance of “blue bonds” backed by the U.S. government, which gave the bonds a strong investment-grade credit rating.</p>
<p>Similarly, Costa Rica has carried out two debt-for-nature swaps with the United States. Under the swaps, Costa Rica agreed to allocate <a href="https://dialogochino.net/en/climate-energy/how-costa-rica-deforestation-millions-for-conservation/">$53 million</a> for conservation projects. It has already planted more than 60,000 trees and <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/costarica/overview/">reversed its deforestation</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A child runs along large sandbags that form a sea wall while others pay in the water below." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491184/original/file-20221023-56678-6uo4mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491184/original/file-20221023-56678-6uo4mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491184/original/file-20221023-56678-6uo4mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491184/original/file-20221023-56678-6uo4mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491184/original/file-20221023-56678-6uo4mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491184/original/file-20221023-56678-6uo4mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491184/original/file-20221023-56678-6uo4mj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Low-income Pacific Island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are fighting to protect their land from sea-level rise and erosion with sea walls like this one. Debt for climate swaps could free up money for such projects without expanding the country’s debt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/boys-play-in-the-lagoon-on-sandbags-reinforcing-a-land-news-photo/1193316999">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While debt-for-nature swaps have been used mostly for conservation, the same concept could be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102407">expanded to climate change mitigation and adaptation</a> activities, such as building solar farms or sea walls. Some finance experts have <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/opinion-debt-for-climate-swaps-are-they-really-a-good-idea-and-what-are-the-challenges-98842">suggested</a> that debt-for-climate swaps could be structured in a way that could also encourage private-sector bond holders to exchange the national debt they hold for carbon offsets.</p>
<h2>Three keys to successful debt-for-climate swaps</h2>
<p>I work with the <a href="https://www.climatepolicylab.org/">Climate Policy Lab</a> at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Our experience with debt swaps offers lessons for the design and implementation of debt-for-climate swaps.</p>
<p>First, the complex governance structures of debt swaps have limited their use. In the past, transactions were generally small, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/outreach/39352290.pdf">generating only about $1 billion</a> in funding for the environment from 1987 to 2003. A <a href="https://www.unescap.org/kp/2021/mpfd-policy-brief-no-121-debt-climate-swaps-tool-support-implementation-paris-agreement">term sheet template</a> for future debt-for-climate swaps could reduce the complexity and lower the time and costs involved.</p>
<p>Second, debt-for-climate swaps would need to relieve enough of the debt burden to allow debtor countries to invest in climate adaptation and mitigation projects. For instance, the U.S. created debt-for-nature swaps with Indonesia in 2009 that were criticized for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.10.001">not doing enough</a> to help the Indonesian government achieve its conservation goals.</p>
<p>Another concern is known as “additionality” – ensuring that the swaps lead to additional climate efforts, as opposed to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102407">covering efforts already planned</a> or <a href="https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/159661/">already paid for</a> with international climate finance.</p>
<p>With <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2021">widening gaps</a> between the amount of adaptation assistance reaching countries and the amount they need, debt-for-climate swaps can be a meaningful source of funding. Climate Policy Initiative, a nonprofit research group, recently <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/climate-finance-needs-of-african-countries/">estimated that about 90%</a> of the adaptation needs countries listed in their Nationally Determined Contributions – the climate change plans they submit to the U.N. – can be only met with help from development banks or other countries.</p>
<h2>Regions experimenting with debt swaps</h2>
<p>A few regions are testing debt-for-climate swaps.</p>
<p>The Economic and Social Commission for Western Africa has developed a <a href="https://www.unescwa.org/debt-swap">Climate/Sustainable Development Goal Debt Swap</a>, in which it functions as a liaison between creditors and <a href="https://www.unescwa.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/UN%20ESCWA%20Climate%20SDGs%20Debt%20Swap%20-%20Donor%20Nexus%20Initiative_21062022_0.pdf">seven pilot countries</a>. The initiative focuses on advancing sustainable development and climate goals, such as developing more resilient agriculture.</p>
<p>Similarly, as part of the Caribbean Resilience Fund, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean <a href="https://www.cepal.org/sites/default/files/events/files/concept_note-final.pdf">plans to launch</a> a Debt for Climate Adaptation Swap. It aims to reduce the $527 million of debt in three pilot countries by issuing green bonds, similar to Belize’s debt swap. Development banks would <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/08/11/Debt-for-Climate-Swaps-Analysis-Design-and-Implementation-522184">play a crucial role</a> by guaranteeing new bonds and reducing the credit risk.</p>
<p>With carefully designed debt-for-climate swaps and support from international institutions, developing countries could expand their finance for desperately needed climate mitigation and adaptation actions and remove some of their heavy debt burden.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191161/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Soyoung Oh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many small island nations are struggling to protect their land from rising seas while also facing paralyzing debt.Soyoung Oh, Junior Research Fellow, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1921192022-10-26T09:35:43Z2022-10-26T09:35:43ZThe whole world is facing a debt crisis – but richer countries can afford to stop it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491024/original/file-20221021-24-e2k7rw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=98%2C26%2C5883%2C3332&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/low-interest-rate-economic-recession-stock-1461426560">Shutterstock/Immersion Imagery</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Countries across the world are drifting towards a <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/15/blog-global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion">debt crisis</a>. Economic slowdowns and rising inflation have increased demands on spending, making it almost impossible for many governments to pay back the money they owe. </p>
<p>In normal times, those countries could simply take on new debt to replace the old debt. But international conditions have made it much more difficult to do this. </p>
<p>As a result, some of <a href="https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2020/01/can-africas-wall-of-eurobond-repayments-be-dismantled/">those approaching</a> repayment deadlines will simply not be able to meet them. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-61028138">Sri Lanka</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/16/zambia-debt-lenders-urged-to-cancel">Zambia</a> have already missed payments, throwing both countries into an <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/06/debt-restructuring-and-implementation-of-deep-reforms-critical-for-sri-lanka-s-economic-stabilization">economic tailspin</a>, and offering perhaps a preview of impending global problems. </p>
<p>One of the main reasons for this worrying scenario is that countries across the world are essentially compelled to borrow money in US dollars or Euros, and keep foreign currency reserves for future debt payments. </p>
<p>But those reserves face other vital demands. They are needed to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bee3f1c7-4b7b-432b-ad35-6f506d173516">purchase oil</a> and other imports, and well as maintaining the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-vs-yen-won-japan-korea-currency-wars-market-intervention-2022-9">credible value</a> of their domestic currency.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for many emerging economies, the reserves they hold are simply not enough to cover all of these demands – especially after energy prices soared when Russia invaded Ukraine. </p>
<p>At the same time, foreign currencies have become more expensive to buy because the <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-the-us-federal-reserve-bank-holds-the-world-in-its-hands-190936">US Federal Reserve</a> and the European Central Bank are raising interest rates. Sri Lanka reportedly has no reserves left, while Pakistan is said to be operating on a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/how-worried-should-we-be-about-pakistans-economy-2022-09-30/">month-to-month basis</a>.</p>
<p>Countries usually issue new bonds (think of them as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-bonds-work-and-why-everyone-is-talking-about-them-right-now-a-finance-expert-explains-191550">tradeable IOUs</a>) to roll over old debt, a process that works just fine – until it doesn’t. In July 2022, no emerging countries <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/low-income-nations-turn-to-risky-bank-loans-11659399411">issued any new bonds</a>, indicating that investors are alarmed by the risk of low currency reserves, and are no longer interested in lending to them. </p>
<p>China too has <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-11663961638">scaled back its lending</a> since the beginning of the pandemic to limit its exposure to global risk. So without bond markets or China, countries are turning to alternative sources of credit. </p>
<p>Kenya and Ghana for example, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/low-income-nations-turn-to-risky-bank-loans-11659399411">recently took out</a> bank loans to alleviate budget shortfalls. And while the precise terms of these loans are not known, banks usually demand higher interest rates and shorter repayment periods, which may only add to a country’s financial stress levels. </p>
<p>Other countries are turning to some of the oil-rich gulf states currently profiting from high energy prices. Egypt and Pakistan have <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-states-rich-from-oil-spread-influence-with-financial-lifelines-11663143410">received loans</a> from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, while Turkey has also borrowed from the UAE. These loans may be welcome lifelines, but they also <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09692290.2018.1455600">create opportunities</a> for richer countries to effectively buy influence and generate dependency. </p>
<p>Overall then, a multitude of factors are working against some of the world’s poorest and indebted countries. If a global debt crisis does ensue, expect <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393207000323?casa_token=kVhblVUZmJsAAAAA:S8qDvYdtbLAkDaPW8X2J_w0Ij2sPYzE_QBd-A3LKiibOlJVrSeplV31Hu1QlMMMPF95DknmxZaM">political turmoil</a> to follow. </p>
<p>Sri Lanka’s default prompted wide spread <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-61028138">protests</a>, forcing the president to resign. And <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014292116300587">research shows</a> that extremist parties perform better after a financial crisis.</p>
<h2>Liquidity and transparency</h2>
<p>But it is not too late for the international community to help avoid such a scenario. </p>
<p>First off, the US and the EU should slow down their interest rate hikes. These US and EU rate hikes slow economic growth around the world, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/un-agency-warns-recession-linked-imprudent-policy-decisions-report-2022-10-03/">the United Nations warned</a>, and they are draining countries’ foreign currency reserves. </p>
<p>It is also not clear that these interest rate hikes are addressing domestic inflation problems. If wealthier countries wish to lower inflation without igniting a global debt crisis, they should lower the trade barriers that artificially raise prices. For example, both the US and EU levy tariffs on imported agricultural products, which increase the price of food for their consumers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Oil plant." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491046/original/file-20221021-18-dnas7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491046/original/file-20221021-18-dnas7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491046/original/file-20221021-18-dnas7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491046/original/file-20221021-18-dnas7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491046/original/file-20221021-18-dnas7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491046/original/file-20221021-18-dnas7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491046/original/file-20221021-18-dnas7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil prices are depleting reserves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/saudi-price-war-oil-market-prices-1667830870">Shutterstock/Corona Borealis Studio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should drop or at least soften the austerity requirements linked to its emergency lending. For example, Zambia’s <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/08/31/pr22297-imf-executive-board-approves-new-extended-credit-facility-arrangement-for-zambia#:%7E:text=The%20IMF%20Board%20approves%20SDR%20978.2%20million%20%28about,foster%20higher%2C%20more%20resilient%2C%20and%20more%20inclusive%20growth.">new IMF deal</a> requires lower government subsidies on fuel and food at a time when prices are increasing. These policies are politically unpopular and encourage countries to seek help from China and oil-rich states instead. </p>
<p>Those countries that are compelled to borrow from the IMF face the risk of emboldening extremist political elements. Now is not the time to push orthodox fiscal requirements that are questionable in their effectiveness. Instead, the IMF should prioritise global liquidity during these difficult economic conditions. </p>
<p>Finally, China should take a leading, transparent role in debt negotiations. Many of the countries facing debt problems owe money to China, a process often shrouded in secrecy. </p>
<p>We know, for instance, that China has agreed to participate in restructuring negotiations in Zambia but has not done the same in Sri Lanka. China has provided emergency loans and debt relief to Pakistan and Argentina, though the effectiveness or extent of this aid is unknown. </p>
<p>A more transparent approach would reduce uncertainty in global markets and allow other creditors to coordinate with China. While China’s lending has not been transparent up until this point, more clarity would benefit China’s overseas investments as well as the global debt market. </p>
<p>Time is running out before many debt distressed countries face repayment day. Debt <a href="https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-abstract/59/3/587/1814886">problems are contagious</a>, as was seen with the Latin American debt <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0094582x8901600105?casa_token=iEhEBTHeHsYAAAAA:gsScEPlFsA1fqwOWqa4DV5GOvoNkV-k7it2O-9aFnxHNmmy9YnbzOoIGhx-Hai6NK0htRUvNNCXr">crises of the 1980s</a>, the <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/17036/summary?casa_token=oFCyylA4ILMAAAAA:KyX2bn0v1QcK5-0v61jcSESuaePxklLBkB4O53edVcI_QYI3P3EyGVopJDTjNUUp9g48LoumoA">Asian financial crises</a> of the 1990s, and the <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051215-023101">Eurozone debt crises</a> of the 2010s. The global community should work together to avert another global economic spiral, and help millions of people avoid needless suffering.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192119/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick E. Shea does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Debt is becoming unaffordable.Patrick E. Shea, Senior Lecturer in International Relations and Global Governance, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1912652022-10-23T19:02:26Z2022-10-23T19:02:26ZWhat should rich countries do with spare masks and gloves? It’s the opposite of what the WHO recommends<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490496/original/file-20221018-9021-5rvd4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1000%2C666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/due-shortage-medical-supplies-coronavirus-covid19-1685561587">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most developed countries hold significant quantities of medical supplies in reserve to respond in an emergency. </p>
<p>For example, Australia has its <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/national-medical-stockpile">National Medical Stockpile</a>, which stocks personal protective equipment, such as masks and gloves, among other items. New Zealand has its <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/emergency-management/national-reserve-supplies">national reserve supplies</a>.</p>
<p>If these supplies are not used in an emergency, such as a pandemic, they typically stay in the stockpile until their use-by date, then are sent to landfill. </p>
<p>Surely there’s a better way, especially with some developing nations short of medical supplies. Donating surplus stock to developing countries seems an obvious solution. </p>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/poms.13828">Our study</a> looked at the likely impact of donating excess stock to developing countries – dated items close to or past their labelled use-by date. We found this a viable option, even better than donating fresh items.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-were-on-a-global-panel-looking-at-the-staggering-costs-of-covid-17-7m-deaths-and-counting-here-are-11-ways-to-stop-history-repeating-itself-190658">We were on a global panel looking at the staggering costs of COVID – 17.7m deaths and counting. Here are 11 ways to stop history repeating itself</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s in the stockpile?</h2>
<p>In 2011, Australia’s stockpile <a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/sites/default/files/AuditReport_2013-2014_53.pdf">contained about</a> 3,000 pallets of expired stock, the bulk of which was personal protective equipment, including 98 million latex gloves. </p>
<p>While some of the reserves have been used during COVID, items are being restocked. So these too will likely expire if not used. For instance, we know surgical masks in the stockpile are <a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/sites/default/files/Auditor-General_Report_2020-21_22.pdf">already expiring</a>.</p>
<p>Similar issues have been seen in other developed countries such as the <a href="https://www.oig.dhs.gov/reports/2014-08/dhs-has-not-effectively-managed-pandemic-personal-protective-equipment-and">United States</a>, <a href="https://oag.parliament.nz/2020/ppe/docs/ppe.pdf">New Zealand</a> and <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6651402/ontario-coronavirus-masks-medical-supplies-expired/">Canada</a>, before and during the current pandemic.</p>
<h2>Why not donate surplus stock?</h2>
<p>This expiration and waste is in sharp contrast to the situation in some developing countries. Some are forced to reuse <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4932219/">normally disposable items</a>, such as surgical gloves, masks and <a href="https://harmreductionjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1477-7517-8-4">syringes</a>.</p>
<p>While donation of surplus stock seems an obvious solution, donations of dated medical supplies are <a href="https://daisi.com.au/category/dr-gary-mckay-deregistered-expired-products-will-not-be-included-in-daisi-donations/">typically discouraged</a>. </p>
<p>The World Health Organization (WHO) <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241501408">recommends against it</a>. It expects donations to arrive in another country with an expiry date of:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>at least one year, or half the shelf life if the expiry date is less than one year.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The idea is to protect recipients from degraded or faulty stock.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wealthy-nations-starved-the-developing-world-of-vaccines-omicron-shows-the-cost-of-this-greed-172763">Wealthy nations starved the developing world of vaccines. Omicron shows the cost of this greed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>We found a pragmatic option</h2>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/poms.13828">Our study</a> modelled the impact of donating stock, in particular personal protective equipment and similar low-risk products. We did not look at donating dated vaccines or medicines, which come with higher safety risks. </p>
<p>We found dated donations close to or recently past their use-by date was the best option. This benefited the recipient country the most, as it was least likely to push local suppliers out of business.</p>
<p>The next best option was donating fresh stock. The least preferable option was donating very dated stock, such as items out of date by more than a year.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490493/original/file-20221018-16-mqo4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Open cardboard box of hand sanitiser" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490493/original/file-20221018-16-mqo4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490493/original/file-20221018-16-mqo4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490493/original/file-20221018-16-mqo4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490493/original/file-20221018-16-mqo4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490493/original/file-20221018-16-mqo4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490493/original/file-20221018-16-mqo4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490493/original/file-20221018-16-mqo4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The best option was donating stock, such as hand sanitiser, close to or slightly past its use-by date.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hand-sanitizer-container-box-delivery-self-1686800215">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How could old stock be better?</h2>
<p>It’s easy to assume that donating large volumes of fresh, excess stock, still within its use-by date, would be the best option. But we showed how this can distort the local market.</p>
<p>Flooding the local market with free, fresh products can force local suppliers to lower their products’ market price, and make them potentially stop making or supplying these products.</p>
<p>This discourages any further attempts to develop local supply capacity, and makes the recipient country more reliant on donations. </p>
<p>This may be compounded by corruption. If corrupt officials siphon donated products and sell them on the black market, this too may force local suppliers out of business. This may also drive prices up on the black market, putting an extra strain on already stretched health-care systems.</p>
<p>Whether or not such corruption is involved, somewhat dated supplies could enable the local supplier to stay in business and supply the country’s health-care system.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-get-more-people-to-pay-taxes-indonesia-should-stamp-out-corruption-by-officials-at-the-top-57512">To get more people to pay taxes, Indonesia should stamp out corruption by officials at the top</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What should happen next?</h2>
<p>Some surplus medical supplies <a href="https://globallinks.org/our-programs/medical-surplus-recovery/">are being donated</a>. But
these programs are small scale and face many restrictions and challenges. These include a <a href="https://knowledge.insead.edu/operations/supply-chain-solutions-healthcare-inequality">limited and unpredictable supply</a> of donated items and relying heavily on <a href="https://naturallymodernlife.com/how-this-non-profit-health-system-is-reducing-waste/">volunteers and community partners</a> to distribute donated stock.</p>
<p>So donating surplus stock could be better coordinated at a larger scale.</p>
<p>Our evidence calls us to rethink what we do with dated donations of low-risk medical supplies.</p>
<p>Masks, respirators, syringes and hand sanitisers from national stockpiles would be a good start. Such products can continue to be useful even when dated, especially if the products are stored well.</p>
<p>Indeed, even in developed countries, personal protective equipment has been distributed past its expiration date <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-52025950">when needed</a> <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/mask-day-doctors-virus-epicenter-washington-69653568">during the pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>It would be prudent to run a pilot program to donate dated, surplus stock, possibly with a single product. </p>
<p>Medical suppliers could also get on board. They may be willing to pay the costs of such a donation program if it allows them to regularly restock national stockpiles and similar reserves with fresh items. </p>
<p>Many countries were <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ppe-pandemic-covid-coronavirus-masks-1.5645120">surprised</a> at the start of the pandemic to find how much expired stock was in their reserves. A donation program would prevent this happening again and help us better prepare for the next pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>During COVID, rich countries have used masks and gloves from their medical stockpiles. But not all countries are so fortunate. We found the best way to help. It may not be what you think.Spring Zhou, Lecturer, operations and supply chain management, University of WollongongTava Olsen, Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1883192022-10-12T15:49:27Z2022-10-12T15:49:27ZYoung people in poorer places are often failed by banks – here’s what needs to change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487550/original/file-20220930-18-7c11ed.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C53%2C5928%2C3934&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Entrepreneurs need more support.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/stock-photo-female-african-grocery-seller-2015689781">Shutterstock/Kehinde Olufemi Akinbo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the global population grows, it has been estimated that by 2030 the world will need more than <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/smefinance">600 million new jobs</a>. Many of these will be required in developing countries, where young people <a href="https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/292310">already struggle</a> to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/dpr.12528">find work</a>, <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/books/WCMS_556949/lang--en/index.htm">pay is low</a>, and working conditions are often poor. </p>
<p>With few opportunities for <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/decent-work/lang--en/index.htm">decent work</a>, many of the world’s poorest young people are self-employed or start their own businesses. Indeed, the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/smefinance">World Bank</a> considers small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to be a key element of new employment opportunities in lower-income economies.</p>
<p>But starting a business anywhere is fraught with risk. Failure rates are <a href="https://businesselitesafrica.com/2020/03/18/nigerias-startup-failure-rate-tops-african-peers-at-61/">as high as</a> 75% in Ethiopia and Rwanda, 74% in Ghana, and 67% in Zimbabwe. </p>
<p>Failure is more likely where interest rates are high and when prospective entrepreneurs lack collateral, which blocks <a href="https://www.gpfi.org/">proper financial support</a> – a vital part of the survival of new businesses and the new jobs they can create.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, secure financial support is not as widely available as it might be. In developing countries, just <a href="https://www.afi-global.org/thematic-areas/youth/">15% of young people</a> have saved money with a formal financial institution. Our <a href="https://standardcharteredbank.turtl.co/story/futuremakers-2022-insights-advancing-inclusive-finance/page/1">survey</a> highlights the varied experiences of young people (under 35) from low-income communities using financial services. </p>
<p>And it’s not only support for start-ups that our survey shows is lacking – we also saw a more basic failing of the financial sector for individuals, and particularly women.</p>
<p>Many of the people we surveyed (from 21 countries including Sri Lanka, Sierra Leone and Malaysia) preferred to take a more informal route to getting money. Around 83% said they turned to their family for financial support, 16% to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.0012-155X.2006.00490.x">community</a> <a href="https://www.findevgateway.org/blog/2022/05/sharing-risk-micro-equity-savings-groups">savings schemes</a>, and 9% to informal money lenders. </p>
<p>For some, the financial services (both informal and via traditional banks) they receive have a positive impact – but for others, they can be ruinous. The failure to pay back loans can lead to some young people <a href="https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/debt_and_the_migration_experience_insights_from_southeast_asia_2.pdf">fleeing their homes</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph showing where young people turn for financial help." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488499/original/file-20221006-24-oy1rpz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488499/original/file-20221006-24-oy1rpz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488499/original/file-20221006-24-oy1rpz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488499/original/file-20221006-24-oy1rpz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488499/original/file-20221006-24-oy1rpz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488499/original/file-20221006-24-oy1rpz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488499/original/file-20221006-24-oy1rpz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What our respondents told us about where they seek financial help.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And while formal finance might seem like the safer option, we found a widespread lack of trust in formal financial services. Most (62%) did not want to get involved with formal banking, while nearly a third (30%) had little money to spend and nothing to save, rendering financial services irrelevant. Almost half (45%) had never considered traditional financial products and services to be relevant. </p>
<p>Other major barriers to formal banking include lack of documentation or <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/06/women-finance-least-developed-countries-collateral/">collateral</a>. There may also be prohibitively <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/05/21/why-interest-rates-are-so-high-in-africa">high interest rates</a> to contend with. </p>
<p>Overall, our survey indicates that young people value the security and predictability that banks can offer, but often consider these benefits to be out of their reach. </p>
<p>Compared with older adults, young people are <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/documents/youth/fact-sheets/youth-financial-inclusion.pdf">33% less likely to save in general, and 44%</a> less likely to have a formal savings account. Nevertheless, research indicates that <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FX.OWN.TOTL.40.ZS?end=2021&locations=ZG&start=2021&view=map">prioritising savings</a>, however small, over loans enables young people to create digital savings records and build good financial habits.</p>
<p>Making small, consistent savings significantly contributes to young people’s, and particularly women’s, <a href="https://www.womensworldbanking.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/WWB-The-Power-of-Jan-Dhan-Report-Web.pdf">financial empowerment</a>. Research across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia shows that both <a href="https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/574821/adbi-wp1098.pdf">financial and digital literacy</a> are key to boosting economic resilience. </p>
<h2>Financial health</h2>
<p>The situation is a problem for the banks too. For them – and businesses generally – the growing youth population in emerging economies represents a relatively untapped market of millions of potential customers, clients and staff.</p>
<p>When it comes to providing loans, high interest rates are often justified due to the risk of lending, but it is time to rethink this approach. </p>
<p>For example, do banks have to treat young entrepreneurs as really high risk? Can assessment <a href="https://www.gpfi.org/">criteria be more flexible</a> for young prospective customers? And could new forms of assessing credit, based on building a financial and savings history rather than on access to collateral, be accepted from those previously excluded? </p>
<p>Credit can support a young person’s growth – or ruin them by depleting their financial health. For instance, <a href="https://www.cgap.org/sites/default/files/publications/Working-Paper-A-Digital-Credit-Revolution-Oct-2018.pdf">research</a> into new digital borrowing schemes saw high levels of late payment, with 31% of borrowers defaulting in Tanzania and 12% in Kenya. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.unsgsa.org/publications/financial-health-introduction-financial-sector-policymakers">Other research shows</a> that the type of credit matters. Long-term business loans improve financial health, whereas immediate credit to meet day-to-day needs tends to be detrimental. </p>
<p>Making <a href="https://www.unsgsa.org/sites/default/files/resources-files/2021-09/UNSGSA%20Financial-health-introduction-for-policymakers.pdf">financial health</a> the new goal would mean supporting people towards financial stability – to get to a point where they can withstand financial shocks and feel secure. </p>
<p>Young people will grow up in the unfolding <a href="https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/publications/knowledge-frontiers-cop26-briefings-young-people-and-climate-change/">climate crisis</a>, which our research shows is <a href="https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/330714">already disrupting</a> lives and livelihoods. They need banks to seriously rethink what they are offering. A <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FX.OWN.TOTL.40.ZS?end=2021&locations=ZG&start=2021&view=map">wider uptake</a> of formal financial services could provide young people in developing economies with a safer way to build and grow the businesses that will create some of those 600 million new jobs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188319/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Barford works at the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership and her Research Fellowship is funded by a philanthropic donation from Unilever. Anna also consults to Business Fights Poverty, who receive funding from Standard Chartered. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Shankland is a PhD Candidate at the University of East Anglia. She is also a freelance researcher and writer for Business Fights Poverty (who receive funds from Standard Chartered) and for the Economist Intelligence Unit annual Country Commerce Reports.</span></em></p>Better financial support is vital for growing populations.Anna Barford, Prince of Wales Global Sustainability Fellow, University of CambridgeStephanie Shankland, PhD Candidate, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1904862022-09-15T12:18:39Z2022-09-15T12:18:39ZUS is becoming a ‘developing country’ on global rankings that measure democracy, inequality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484375/original/file-20220913-4673-1pyfbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C43%2C4785%2C2687&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People wait in line for a free morning meal in Los Angeles in April 2020. High and rising inequality is one reason the U.S. ranks badly on some international measures of development.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/homeless-people-wait-in-line-for-a-morning-meal-at-the-fred-news-photo/1210677779?adppopup=true">Frederic J. Brown/ AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United States may regard itself as a “<a href="https://www.americanforeignrelations.com/E-N/Exceptionalism-The-leader-of-the-free-world.html">leader of the free world</a>,” but an index of development released in July 2022 places the country much farther down the list. </p>
<p>In its global rankings, the United Nations Office of Sustainable Development dropped the U.S. to <a href="https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/rankings">41st worldwide</a>, down from its previous ranking of 32nd. Under this methodology – an expansive model of 17 categories, or “goals,” many of them focused on the environment and equity – the U.S. ranks between Cuba and Bulgaria. Both are widely regarded as developing countries.</p>
<p>The U.S. is also now considered a “flawed democracy,” according to <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/02/09/a-new-low-for-global-democracy">The Economist’s democracy index</a>.</p>
<p>As a political historian who studies U.S. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/kathleen-frydl-0406b21a5/">institutional development</a>, I recognize these dismal ratings as the inevitable result of two problems. Racism has cheated many Americans out of the health care, education, economic security and environment they deserve. At the same time, as threats to democracy become more serious, a devotion to “American exceptionalism” keeps the country from candid appraisals and course corrections.</p>
<h2>‘The other America’</h2>
<p>The Office of Sustainable Development’s rankings differ from more traditional development measures in that they are more focused on the experiences of ordinary people, including their ability to enjoy clean air and water, than the creation of wealth. </p>
<p>So while the gigantic size of the American economy counts in its scoring, so too does unequal access to the wealth it produces. When judged by accepted measures like the <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=US">Gini coefficient</a>, income inequality in the U.S. has risen markedly over the past 30 years. By the <a href="https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm">Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s measurement</a>, the U.S. has the biggest wealth gap among G-7 nations.</p>
<p>These results reflect structural disparities in the United States, which are most pronounced for African Americans. Such differences have persisted well beyond the demise of chattel slavery and the repeal of Jim Crow laws.</p>
<p>Scholar W.E.B. Du Bois first exposed this kind of structural inequality in his 1899 analysis of Black life in the urban north, “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt3fhpfb">The Philadelphia Negro</a>.” Though he noted distinctions of affluence and status within Black society, Du Bois found the lives of African Americans to be a world apart from white residents: a “city within a city.” Du Bois traced the high rates of poverty, crime and illiteracy prevalent in Philadelphia’s Black community to discrimination, divestment and residential segregation – not to Black people’s degree of ambition or talent.</p>
<p>More than a half-century later, with characteristic eloquence, Martin Luther King Jr. <a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/the-other-america-speech-transcript-martin-luther-king-jr">similarly decried</a> the persistence of the “other America,” one where “the buoyancy of hope” was transformed into “the fatigue of despair.” </p>
<p>To illustrate his point, King referred to many of the same factors studied by Du Bois: the condition of housing and household wealth, education, social mobility and literacy rates, health outcomes and employment. On all of these metrics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/black-americans-mostly-left-behind-by-progress-since-dr-kings-death-89956">Black Americans fared worse</a> than whites. But as King noted, “Many people of various backgrounds live in this other America.”</p>
<p>The benchmarks of development invoked by these men also featured prominently in the 1962 book “<a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Other-America/Michael-Harrington/9780684826783">The Other America</a>,” by political scientist <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-socialism-stopped-being-a-dirty-word-for-some-voters-and-started-winning-elections-across-america-156572">Michael Harrington, founder</a> of a group that eventually became the Democratic Socialists of America. Harrington’s work so unsettled President John F. Kennedy that it reportedly <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-a-new-yorker-article-launched-the-first-shot-in-the-war-against-poverty-17469990/">galvanized him</a> into formulating a “war on poverty.” </p>
<p>Kennedy’s successor, Lyndon Johnson, waged this metaphorical war. But poverty <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/poverty-and-place">bound to discrete places</a>. Rural areas and segregated neighborhoods stayed poor well beyond mid-20th-century federal efforts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Tents line a leafy park; some people can be seen chatting outside one tent" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484374/original/file-20220913-4701-2mulzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C19%2C4275%2C2824&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484374/original/file-20220913-4701-2mulzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484374/original/file-20220913-4701-2mulzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484374/original/file-20220913-4701-2mulzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484374/original/file-20220913-4701-2mulzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484374/original/file-20220913-4701-2mulzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484374/original/file-20220913-4701-2mulzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Camp Laykay Nou, a homeless encampment in Philadelphia. High and rising inequality is one reason the US rates badly on some international development rankings.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/camp-laykay-nou-celebrated-a-stay-in-the-city-of-news-photo/1227676000?adppopup=true">Cory Clark/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>In large part that is because federal efforts during that critical time accommodated rather than confronted the forces of racism, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/history/american-history-after-1945/gi-bill?format=HB&isbn=9780521514248">according to my research</a>. </p>
<p>Across a number of policy domains, the sustained efforts of segregationist Democrats in Congress resulted in an incomplete and patchwork system of social policy. Democrats from the South cooperated with Republicans to doom to failure efforts to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/14/magazine/universal-health-care-racism.html">achieve universal</a> <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/06/the-fight-for-health-care-is-really-all-about-civil-rights/531855/">health care</a> or <a href="https://www.salon.com/2018/06/07/big-business-and-white-supremacy-the-racist-roots-of-americas-right-to-work-laws/">unionized workforces</a>. Rejecting proposals for strong federal intervention, they left a checkered legacy of <a href="https://www.sc.edu/uofsc/posts/2022/04/conversation-jim-crow.php#.YyHMrOzMK8p">local funding for education</a> and <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2021.01466">public health</a>. </p>
<p>Today, many years later, the effects of a welfare state tailored to racism is evident — though perhaps less visibly so — in the inadequate <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(22)00081-3/fulltext">health policies</a> driving a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220831.htm">shocking decline</a> in average American life expectancy.</p>
<h2>Declining democracy</h2>
<p>There are other ways to measure a country’s level of development, and on some of them the U.S. fares better. </p>
<p>The U.S. currently ranks 21st on <a href="https://hdr.undp.org/">the United Nations Development Program’s index</a>, which measures fewer factors than the sustainable development index. Good results in average income per person – $64,765 – and an average 13.7 years of schooling situate the United States squarely in the developed world.</p>
<p>Its ranking suffers, however, on appraisals that place greater weight on political systems. </p>
<p>The Economist’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/02/09/a-new-low-for-global-democracy">democracy index</a> now groups the U.S. among “flawed democracies,” with an overall score that ranks between Estonia and Chile. It falls short of being a top-rated “full democracy” in large part because of a fractured political culture. This growing divide is most apparent in the divergent paths between “red” and “blue” states.</p>
<p>Although the analysts from The Economist applaud the peaceful transfer of power in the face of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sore-loser-effect-rejecting-election-results-can-destabilize-democracy-and-drive-terrorism-171571">insurrection intended to disrupt</a> it, <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2021/?utm_source=economist&utm_medium=daily_chart&utm_campaign=democracy-index-2021">their report laments</a> that, according to a January 2022 poll, “only 55% of Americans believe that Mr. Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, despite no evidence of widespread voter fraud.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/05/us/politics/america-first-secretary-of-state-candidates.html">Election denialism carries with it the threat</a> that election officials in Republican-controlled jurisdictions will reject or alter vote tallies that do not favor the Republican Party in upcoming elections, further jeopardizing the score of the U.S. on the democracy index. </p>
<p>Red and blue America also differ on access to modern reproductive care for women. This hurts the U.S. gender equality rating, <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/gpr/2015/10/onward-2030-sexual-and-reproductive-health-and-rights-context-sustainable-development">one aspect</a> of the United Nations’ sustainable development index.</p>
<p>Since the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/24/1102305878/supreme-court-abortion-roe-v-wade-decision-overturn">Supreme Court overturned</a> Roe v. Wade, Republican-controlled states have enacted or proposed grossly <a href="https://today.westlaw.com/Document/I1ebf6cf01a6a11ed9f24ec7b211d8087/View/FullText.html%22%22">restrictive</a> <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy">abortion laws</a>, to the point of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/10/us/abortion-bans-medical-care-women.html">endangering a woman’s health</a>. </p>
<p>I believe that, when paired with structural inequalities and fractured social policy, the dwindling Republican commitment to democracy lends weight to the classification of the U.S. as a developing country.</p>
<h2>American exceptionalism</h2>
<p>To address the poor showing of the United States on a variety of global surveys, one must also contend with the idea of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/06/03/obama-and-american-exceptionalism/">American exceptionalism</a>, a belief in American superiority over the rest of the world. </p>
<p>Both political parties have long promoted this belief, at home and abroad, but “exceptionalism” receives a more formal treatment from Republicans. It was the first line of the Republican Party’s national platform of <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiukdmw2pT6AhU6FVkFHRpPDLUQFnoECAsQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fprod-cdn-static.gop.com%2Fmedia%2Fdocuments%2FDRAFT_12_FINAL%255B1%255D-ben_1468872234.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0ZlBtj2Rrovr9mA9DZJCOy">2016</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/The_Republican_Party_Platform,_2020">2020</a> (“we believe in American exceptionalism”). And it served as the organizing principle behind Donald Trump’s vow to restore “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/31/trump-patriotic-education-406521">patriotic education</a>” to America’s schools. </p>
<p>In Florida, after <a href="https://www.orlandoweekly.com/news/florida-board-of-education-approves-new-curriculum-touting-american-exceptionalism-29639851">lobbying by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis</a>, the state board of education in July 2022 approved standards rooted in American exceptionalism while barring instruction in <a href="https://www.edweek.org/leadership/what-is-critical-race-theory-and-why-is-it-under-attack/2021/05">critical race theory</a>, an academic framework teaching the kind of structural racism Du Bois exposed long ago.</p>
<p>With a tendency to proclaim excellence rather than pursue it, the peddling of American exceptionalism encourages Americans to maintain a robust sense of national achievement – despite mounting evidence to the contrary.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190486/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathleen Frydl does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The United States came in 41st worldwide on the UN’s 2022 sustainable development index, down nine spots from last year. A political historian explains the country’s dismal scores.Kathleen Frydl, Sachs Lecturer, Johns Hopkins UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1900892022-09-07T15:08:12Z2022-09-07T15:08:12ZWTO head Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: how trade can help beat inequality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483021/original/file-20220906-12-b98li7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director general of the World Trade Organisation. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In a recent study South Africa was <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/03/09/new-world-bank-report-assesses-sources-of-inequality-in-five-countries-in-southern-africa">identified</a> as ranking first of 164 countries in the World Bank’s global poverty database. Underlying this inequality is its very high rates of unemployment. Professor Dori Posel spoke to <a href="https://www.wto.org">World Trade Organisation</a> (WTO) Director General <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/dg_e/dg_e.htm">Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala</a> about why trade is important in tackling joblessness and inequality. And her experiences of fighting corruption in Nigeria.</em></p>
<p><strong>Professor Posel:</strong> You’ve said that the WTO is all about people. How do we ensure that global trade reduces inequality both between and within countries?</p>
<p><strong>Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala:</strong> Trade tends to have a bad name, especially among young people. For them it’s synonymous with globalisation, which they don’t see as a good thing. </p>
<p>But trade has been an instrument for lifting over a billion people out of poverty. It’s worth remembering that in 1980, over 40% of the world’s population lived on less than $1.90 a day, and that just before the pandemic this had gone down to 10%. </p>
<p>And a lot of that was due to the effects of bringing into the global trading system countries that were outside of it. Admittedly, China is a shining example of a country that benefited the most from this trade.</p>
<p>So trade has had its benefits.</p>
<p>That being said, it is undoubtedly true that poor countries were left behind. Now, the WTO charter is about creating employment, enhancing living standards, supporting sustainable development. It’s all about people.</p>
<p>I’m constantly looking at how rules for trade can bring micro, small and medium enterprises that are usually left out into the national, regional and global value chains. This includes women, many of whom own these kinds of enterprises. This is one way you can help create more employment, enhance incomes and so on.</p>
<p>The discussion now about the diversification of supply chains presents an opportunity to use trade as an instrument for inclusion. And I call it re-globalisation. We are talking to companies in developed countries to adopt a strategy of global diversification of value chains. That way they can look at Africa. Take South Africa. It is capable of attracting some of these supply chains. Other African countries that are capable are Ghana, Senegal, Rwanda and Nigeria.</p>
<p><strong>Prof Posel:</strong> Could you elaborate on how WTO mechanisms can be used to benefit African countries? </p>
<p><strong>Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala:</strong> Africa contributes less than 3% of world merchandise trade. And that is tiny. So how do we turn it around? </p>
<p>We have to trade more among ourselves. Trade among ourselves is only about 15% to 16% (of our trade). But we are all selling the same things. So we need to step back a little. We need to see how we add value. I don’t think we can grab a bigger share of world trade without adding value to the products we have.</p>
<p>So that is why I’m passionate about supply chains.</p>
<p>I see a big opportunity in pharmaceuticals because everybody’s eyes have now opened to the fact that Africa cannot continue with 99% of its vaccines produced elsewhere and 95% of other medicines. Africa has the unique opportunity not just about vaccines, but bringing in the pharmaceutical supply chains on the continent.</p>
<p>We’ve been working with the CEOs to see how we can encourage them to diversify their supply chains in Africa.</p>
<p>We should also have the same approach on the continent to attract companies that can help us add value to our products, to help create employment for young people. Actually, if we don’t do this we will have social instability. And it’s already happening in many of our countries. So this is no joke.</p>
<p>There’s a branch of the WTO called the International Trade Centre. Its job is to really focus on SMEs – small and medium enterprises – and on women, and try to help them penetrate external markets. But they need help. For example, there are lots of sanitary and phytosanitary requirements they must meet to export. In Nigeria, the centre has been working with shea butter producers who had been trying to break into world markets, but were banned from the US and Europe because they didn’t meet the standards. And over five or more years, they worked with them to upgrade the quality of their shea butter. Now they are exporting to the US. This is a group of women cooperatives that are exporting to Europe. They’ve more than doubled their incomes. </p>
<p><strong>Prof Posel:</strong> I would like us to move on to another set of constraints on job growth in South Africa. And this concerns issues around trust and corruption. What is your advice to us in South Africa on this particular issue?</p>
<p><strong>Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala:</strong> All I can do is share some of my experiences in Nigeria. And some of the ways we approached it. Before I do that, let me say that, you know, a lot of public corruption is also linked to public procurement.</p>
<p>One of the things to look at immediately is how to institutionalise transparent processes. We looked at how to set up a system with lots of transparency because we found a lot of corruption was coming from public procurement. So we introduced rules of the game that had to be followed at certain thresholds. </p>
<p>Was it 100% successful in curbing that? </p>
<p>No, but it did introduce a safeguard into the system so that people didn’t have a free for all. </p>
<p>But let me tell you one thing that has been quite helpful, at least in my time in fighting corruption, is technology.</p>
<p>I’ll just give one example. When I took office as minister of finance in Nigeria, we would get the payroll, let’s say the ministry of agriculture would come to me and say we have X number of people on the payroll, they would send this in, and then we would pay against that.</p>
<p>A lot of things were manual. And corruption had become entrenched because people could introduce ghost workers who became ghost pensioners.</p>
<p>I stood back and with the the economic team and with the support of the president, of course, we thought about introducing government financial management systems based on technology, so that we could take out as much of the manual and human intervention as possible. And we had an integrated payroll and personnel management system that had technology built in so that everyone could be identified. </p>
<p>We had a government financial system that was based on technology that linked the budget, the Treasury, to the other departments, so we didn’t have all this manual stuff. </p>
<p>So again, did that solve the entire problem? The answer is no. But it did solve a lot. We were able to save about US$1 billion by wiping out a lot of these ghost workers and ghost pensioners from the payroll. It’s still not perfect, but we did a lot. </p>
<p>So when you have stealing of state assets, we now have all sorts of technology that can be introduced to see what’s actually happening. We all know we have systems of cameras and drones and things that can be used to monitor what is going on. Technology helps in prosecutions. Prosecutions must take place so people know they can’t get away with it. </p>
<p>There’s no magic bullet, you need an array of policies, technologies, you need to be crystal clear. And people need to know that fighting corruption starts with them. Technology is not the perfect solution, but it can help in certain circumstances. </p>
<p>It starts with you, you have to take responsibility, not just waiting for government or some nebulous organisation to fight it. But that demands courage.</p>
<p><em>*This is an edited excerpt of the Wits School of Economics and Finance’s centenary webinar titled 100 Years of Economics at Wits: Reflecting on the Past, Looking to the Future. The event can be <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/sef/webinar-series/">watched here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190089/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorrit Posel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Creating employment and fighting corruption are two of the subjects discussed in the wide ranging discussion.Dorrit Posel, Professor in the School of Economics and Finance, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1850462022-06-15T05:46:47Z2022-06-15T05:46:47ZCybersecurity in the Pacific: how island nations are building their online defences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468908/original/file-20220615-23-svwap8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=389%2C29%2C9595%2C2949&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/3d-illustration-national-flags-eighteen-countries-1485791669">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Leaders of several Pacific nations <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-07/pacific-islands-forum-meeting-leadership-crisis/101129096">met in Fiji last week</a> to strengthen ties and promote unity in the region. </p>
<p>The Pacific faces numerous challenges, such as the threat of climate change and major powers jostling for influence in the region. Against these adversities, Pacific countries have shown determination to preserve their own (and the region’s) identity and sovereignty. </p>
<p>One less-appreciated aspect of Pacific security is cybersecurity. Some cyber threats are financially motivated, such as ransomware or phishing attacks, but others aim at critical infrastructure. Still other attacks threaten society and democratic processes through spreading misinformation and disinformation.</p>
<p>We are working with Pacific governments to assess their current cybersecurity situations – and make recommendations for a path forward.</p>
<h2>An broader idea of security</h2>
<p>In 2018, the 18 member states of the Pacific Islands Forum signed the <a href="https://www.forumsec.org/2018/09/05/boe-declaration-on-regional-security/">Boe Declaration on Regional Security</a>. After noting climate change as “the single greatest threat”, the declaration lays out an “expanded concept of security” which includes cybersecurity. </p>
<p>The declaration set the scene for cybersecurity as a shared priority for the region. The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has raised the stakes even further, as online services and remote work have rapidly increased.</p>
<p>Cybersecurity will be necessary to enable continued economic development amid natural disasters, changes in the global security situation, and worldwide economic upheavals.</p>
<h2>Security and sovereignty</h2>
<p>The countries of the Pacific depend on fragile undersea cables for broadband internet access. Bringing government processes online, modernising digital infrastructure, and promoting e-commerce will introduce further security risks.</p>
<p>At the same time as securing their digital spaces, Pacific nations may wish to maintain sovereign control of their data. Often, digitisation means data is controlled outside the country.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/undersea-internet-cables-connect-pacific-islands-to-the-world-but-geopolitical-tension-is-tugging-at-the-wires-167968">Undersea internet cables connect Pacific islands to the world. But geopolitical tension is tugging at the wires</a>
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<p>Introducing digital currencies and mobile payments may also reduce a country’s control over money-related policies.</p>
<p>Working with overseas suppliers for cybersecurity may mean the country has to hand over the keys to sensitive data, networks, and systems. </p>
<h2>Cybersecurity assessments</h2>
<p>At the invitation of Pacific island nations, we and our colleagues at Monash University and the Oceania Cyber Security Centre (OCSC) are working to help countries understand and strengthen their cybersecurity situation.</p>
<p>Using the University of Oxford’s <a href="https://ocsc.com.au/capacity-initiatives/">Cybersecurity Capacity Maturity Model for Nations (CMM) and our own research</a>, we help countries assess their current situation, identify their priorities and determine how to strengthen local capacity and sovereign capability.</p>
<p>These assessments are a crucial first step. Each nation is different.
Tailored approaches to cybersecurity that consider the local culture, context and preservation of national sovereignty are needed.</p>
<h2>Mapping the way forward</h2>
<p>So far, eight of these reviews have been conducted in the Pacific. Seven of these where conducted by the OCSC. Worldwide, more than 87 nations have worked through similar reviews. </p>
<p>In the Federated States of Micronesia, for example, the OCSC completed an assessment in collaboration with the Asia-Pacific Telecommunity in 2020.</p>
<p>After the assessment, we worked with the Federated States of Micronesia in 2021 to co-develop a <a href="https://governmentfsm-my.sharepoint.com/:b:/g/personal/communications_tci_gov_fm/EWC8X5msGAhEkKyP31bPc-EBviqG6q5K6PsTR_TxI8iiGg?e=fBWwBH">National Cybersecurity Roadmap</a>. The roadmap sets a path to build local capacity and sovereign capability to protect the country’s national interests and citizens who are most at risk from cyber harms.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fight-for-control-threatens-to-destabilize-and-fragment-the-internet-162914">Fight for control threatens to destabilize and fragment the internet</a>
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<p>In 2019 we conducted an assessment in Vanuatu. Since then, Vanuatu has strengthened its cybersecurity in several ways, including:</p>
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<li>incident response and advisories through <a href="https://cert.gov.vu/">national cybersecurity emergency response teams</a></li>
<li>development of cybersecurity awareness resources and campaigns</li>
<li>providing cyber risk management and best practice guidance for businesses</li>
<li>establishing the Cybercrime Act 2021</li>
<li>an invitation to accede to the <a href="https://www.coe.int/en/web/cybercrime/the-budapest-convention">Budapest Convention on Cybercrime</a>.</li>
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<h2>Frameworks and funding</h2>
<p>We and our colleagues are <a href="https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/items/e3a880c5-340a-47b0-b375-9334b978f49a">in the process</a> of developing a regional framework for island state cybersecurity. It will help Pacific countries build effective emergency response teams, strengthen cyber resilience, and ensure data sovereignty.</p>
<p>As well as assistance with assessments and planning, Pacific nations will also need funding – including from countries like Australia – to address their own identified priorities. </p>
<p>As the Boe Declaration underlines, we are all on the journey to developing digital resilience. If we work together, the whole Pacific family can strengthen regional security while maintaining sovereignty.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-skills-does-a-cybersecurity-professional-need-106521">What skills does a cybersecurity professional need?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carsten Rudolph works for Monash University and is the Research Director for the Oceania Cyber Security Centre OCSC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Boorman is Head of Research and Capacity Building at the Oceania Cyber Security Centre and an affiliate of Monash University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monica Whitty works for Monash University.</span></em></p>Pacific island nations are working to secure their people and infrastructure from cyber attacks.Carsten Rudolph, Associate Professor for Cybersecurity, Monash UniversityJames Boorman, Head of Research and Capacity Building, Oceania Cyber Security Centre, and Affiliate, Monash UniversityMonica Whitty, Professor of Software Systems and Cybersecurity, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1826222022-05-25T13:24:45Z2022-05-25T13:24:45ZQuantum physics offers insights about leadership in the 21st century<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463267/original/file-20220516-23-5mwuzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It may seem strange to look to the discipline of quantum physics for lessons that will help to create future-fit leaders. But science has a lot to offer us. </p>
<p>Like scientists, business leaders need to be able to manage rapid change and ambiguity in a non-linear, multi-disciplinary and networked environment. But, for the most part, businesses find themselves trapped in processes that draw on the paradigm of certainty and predictability. This approach is analogous to the Newtonian physics developed in the 1600’s.</p>
<p>The ambiguity that business leaders operate in is encapsulated in mathematical models developed by the advances in Quantum Physics developed in the early 1900’s. These advances culminated in massive progression in technology. And they can accommodate the complexity and uncertainty archetypes found in nature – and now by extension human behaviour. </p>
<p>These mathematical models allow for improved scenario and forecasting. They are therefore very useful in <a href="https://www.adamhall.solutions/blog/2021/4/5/how-quantum-physics-relates-to-businessnbsp-leadership">vastly improving decision-making</a>, as pointed out by the author Adam C. Hall.</p>
<h2>Quantum physics and quantum organisations</h2>
<p>Throughout history, scholars have tried to make sense of human behaviour and, by extension, leadership attributes by studying natural phenomena. </p>
<p><a href="https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/sprchp/978-981-16-7849-3_13.html">According</a> to complexity economist Brian Arthur and physicist Geoffrey West human social systems function optimally as complex adaptive systems – or quantum systems. </p>
<p>The newly developed field of quantum leadership maps the human, conscious equivalents onto the 12 systems that define complex adaptive systems or quantum organisations. These are: self-awareness; vision and value led; spontaneity; holism; field-independence; humility; ability to reframe; asking fundamental questions; celebration of diversity; positive use of adversity; compassion; a sense of vocation (purpose).</p>
<p>Quantum leadership is essentially <a href="https://www.quantumleadershipactivism.org/eng/resources/3/quantum-leadership/">a new management approach</a> that integrates the most effective attributes of traditional leadership with recent advances in both quantum physics and neuroscience. It is a model that allows for greater responsiveness. It draws on our innate ability to recognise, adapt and respond to uncertainty and complexity.</p>
<p>My academic work has been in nanophysics. This is an study where the laws of physics become governed by quantum physics as opposed to the rigid and deterministic Newtonian approach. </p>
<p>When entering the corporate world my interest was piqued on how leaders should respond to complexity, ambiguity and non-liniearity. This complimentarity extended my curiosity. In turn this led me to navigate several disciplines dealing with complex systems.</p>
<p>Quantum Mechanics has been confirmed by <a href="https://www.livescience.com/33816-quantum-mechanics-explanation.html">scientific evidence</a>. The <a href="https://courses.lumenlearning.com/physics/chapter/27-3-youngs-double-slit-experiment/">most popularly cited</a> experiment was the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1929/broglie/facts/">Nobel winning</a> theoretical development by Louis-Victor Pierre Raymond de Broglie explaining the wave-particle duality of light illustrated by the double <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/light/Youngs-double-slit-experiment">slit experiment of Thomas Young</a>. This showed that the outcome of any potential event is multi-fold and dependent on the vantage point of the observer. </p>
<p>This doesn’t imply the correctness or incorrectness of any outcome. It just highlights how vantage point can – and does – influence behaviour and decision-making.</p>
<p>To come to grips with the vast change precipitated by the fourth industrial revolution businesses have to acknowledge that outcomes are vantage point dependent and random. This industrial revolution provides the potential to precipitate fundamental and positive changes in the way in which societies and work are organised.</p>
<p>Disruptive technologies such as mobile banking, practices such as remote working, and dramatic changes in consumer behaviour are inevitably rousing leadership from a linear mindset as they uncover non-linear opportunities. </p>
<p>The imperative of developing leaders that can deal with pervasive disruptions has being recognized by leading business schools. Examples include <a href="https://www.insead.edu/executive-education/insead-online-programmes?CampaignId=GGL_Search_A&SiteId=GGL&CampaignName=EMEA-ZA%5BEN%5D_GGL-Brand%5BGEN%5D-Online_MT-Exact&AdId=ONLINE&device=c&term=insead%20executive%20education%20online_(e)&gclid=CjwKCAjw7IeUBhBbEiwADhiEMacdFezsAzm0s7hgR1U5KT6ZpM7wViUOsngeRMN-BdjDgiKSRAk71hoCmcsQAvD_BwE">INSEAD’s programme in Executive Education</a>. One course covers developing effective strategies and learning how to innovate in a disruptive, uncertain world.</p>
<h2>Defining the quantum leader</h2>
<p>The concept of a quantum leader is gaining <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Quantum-Leader-Revolution-Business-Thinking/dp/1633882411">traction in behavioural studies</a>. </p>
<p>Quantum leaders, like the systems they have to manage, are poised at ‘the edge of chaos.’ They thrive on the potential latent in uncertainty. They are also:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>vision and value led</p></li>
<li><p>adapt quickly, </p></li>
<li><p>are unafraid to play with the boundaries and reinvent the rules, and </p></li>
<li><p>celebrate diversity. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>In this way, they are precipitating a radical break from the past.</p>
<p>Practically, quantum leadership is informed by quantum thinking and guided by the defining principles of quantum physics. Quantum leaders think ahead by formulating many scenarios for what the future might hold, encourage questions and experiments, and thrive on uncertainty.</p>
<p>Quantum leaders are guided by the same principles that inform complex adaptive systems. They can also operate effectively outside the direct control of formal systems. They have the ability to reframe challenges and issues within the context of the environment. And develop new approaches through relationships.</p>
<p>In short, they are curious, adaptable and tolerant of ambiguity and uncertainty.</p>
<p>The charismatic and forceful leader like the iconic <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/obituaries/lee-iacocca-dead.html">Lee Iacocca led Chrysler </a> to the company to great heights. Yet <a href="https://qz.com/work/1658240/how-lee-iacocca-who-bashed-the-japanese-is-being-remembered-in-japan/">he failed to anticipate</a> the dominance of Japanese automotive manufacturers. Lionised leaders who consult only as a matter of form but impose what they believed to be their superior way of thinking are the antithesis of what a quantum leaders represents. </p>
<p>The ingrained categorisation or divide between ‘hard, such as Physics’ and ‘soft, the Humanities in general’ sciences is self limiting. It creates unnecessary chasms between creativity and innovation. The quantum management paradigm recognises that analytics, design, creativity and human behaviour has to be integrated into the mindsets of future leaders. </p>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>The World Economic Forum <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/reskilling-revolution-jobs-future-skills/">estimates</a> that digital transformation will transform a third of all jobs globally within the next decade. In addition billions of people will require reskilling. This trend will hit developing nations particularly hard. They have limited access to technology, remain locked into traditional teaching methods, and still practice top-down models of management.</p>
<p>In seeking solutions to this scenario, intellectuals across all disciplines need to come together to explore a more agile, multi-disciplinary approach to social and business management. Drawing on quantum theory concepts, we need to create a different way of looking at probability and possibility in the business world.</p>
<p>Business schools need to develop a new kind of business leader that can consider all possible outcomes. They need to be adaptable enough to function in a world in which outcomes may well be counter-intuitive. This is the way of the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Randall Carolissen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Quantum leaders are curious, adaptable and tolerant of ambiguity and uncertainty.Randall Carolissen, Dean Johannesburg Business School, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.